182 FXUS61 KPHI 151902 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 302 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisories that were in effect from Little Egg Inlet to Fenwick Island have been allowed to expire as of 3 PM. The Severe Weather threat for Friday afternoon and evening has increased across the entire area. Gale Watch for Friday Night replaced by a Small Craft Advisory Gale Watch for outer marine zones extended from Saturday now into Saturday Night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A warm front will move north through the region tonight, followed by a strong cold front that will pose the threat of severe weather on Friday afternoon and evening. 2. Widespread frost and freeze conditions are increasingly likely Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A warm front will move north through the region tonight, followed by a strong cold front that will pose the threat of severe weather on Friday afternoon and evening. Low pressure developing over the Midwest this afternoon will lift northeast into the Great Lakes tonight and into southern Quebec on Friday. As the system lifts north, a warm front will lift north through the region overnight. As forcing for ascent increases along with increasing moisture advection, occasional showers and periods of rain are anticipated to develop and spread into the area after midnight. Cannot rule out some embedded thunder overnight as well, as there is some elevated instability present in forecast soundings. Showers and some patchy fog will continue through about daybreak, before the warm front lifts clear of the area by late morning. There should then be a lull in activity through early afternoon. Once the region is in the warm sector, expect a few hours of mostly sunny conditions on Friday under warm and moist southwest flow. Forecast highs are expected to be in the mid 70s to low 80s across much of eastern PA and NJ with highs possibly topping out in the mid 80s across the Delmarva. Dew points will also rise into the mid to upper 60s in the afternoon. By mid to late afternoon, focus will be to the west as a strong cold front trails to the west. Convection by this time should already be ongoing across portions of NY and western PA tracking east toward the area. Forecast guidance currently depicts a narrow corridor of instability where MLCAPE is around 500 J/kg, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg over western areas. While instability is meager at best, strong background wind fields aloft will be coincided with bulk shear values in excess of 50 kt along the immediate front. As a result, the Storm Prediction Center has increased wind probabilities across the entire forecast area, now being placed into a Slight risk (Level 2/5) for severe weather on Friday. The primary hazard is damaging wind gusts given the overall set-up, however cannot entirely rule out a brief spin-up as well. Timing appears to around 4-6 PM for western areas, 6-8 PM around the I-95 corridor, and 8-10 PM for coastal areas and across the Delmarva. With diurnal heating ceasing this time of year much earlier than in peak summer, it is expected that the squall line will be losing steam in intensity as it progresses further east. Showers and storms will clear the area from west to east later Friday evening. KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread frost and freeze conditions are increasingly likely Saturday night. The trough axis shifts east away from the region and high pressure builds in at the surface for Saturday Night. This will result in some of the coldest air of the season to date settling in over the entire area. Skies will clear out by sunset on Saturday, with winds gradually diminishing through the night. The elevated winds, especially south and east of the I-95 corridor,will prevent temperatures from bottoming out completely though. So, while we will have decent radiational cooling conditions, it won't be perfectly ideal. Ended up lowering temperatures a few degrees under the NBM though. As a result, low temperatures are expected to fall below freezing across the Poconos and northwestern NJ. Freezing temperatures could extend down through the I-78 corridor though, with the current forecast for Reading/Allentown having lows around 33 to 34. Rural areas even across southeastern PA and southern NJ cannot entirely rule out seeing their first freeze of the year either. For the rest of the area, lows in the mid 30 to upper 30s are expected, with 40s along the coast. Elevated winds and a dry airmass may actually preclude frost development, especially along the I-95 corridor and points south and east. There is a scenario where we see temperatures in the mid 30s but no widespread frost given how dry the airmass will be. However, the first widespread hard freeze looks increasingly likely for the Poconos and northwestern NJ. Headlines are going to follow in subsequent forecast updates. Temperatures moderate from Sunday onward. Temperatures on Sunday Night north of Philadelphia will drop into the mid to upper 30s, but some areas may no longer need frost/freeze headlines beyond Saturday Night. After that, lows each night for most of next week should be above 40 degrees where the growing season is still active. Dry and tranquil conditions are expected with no significant weather hazards anticipated at this time for next week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of Today...VFR with increasing clouds from south to north. East-southeast winds around 5-10 kt. High confidence. Tonight...VFR through evening, with ceilings lowering to MVFR and IFR overnight with LIFR possible early Friday morning. Showers are likely to develop after 05Z with perhaps an embedded thunderstorm, however confidence in occurrence is not high enough to include in TAFs at this time. Southeast winds will gradually veer through the night to south-southwest around 5-10 kt by Friday morning. High confidence through about 04Z, then low confidence. Friday...IFR to LIFR conditions are expected to persist through the morning hours with some lingering showers. Conditions will gradually improve from south to north after 16Z, giving way to VFR in the afternoon. Southwest winds around 10-15 kt gusting up to 20 kt. In the late afternoon, a squall line is expected to move in from the west after 20Z. This may cause another round of sub-VFR conditions and gusty winds. Moderate confidence overall. Outlook... Friday Night...Sub-VFR conditions expected early, especially from the I-95 corridor on east as scattered showers and thunderstorms move through. Conditions should lift back to VFR later in the night though. Saturday...VFR. North/northwesterly winds around 15-20 kt with gusts 20 to 30 kt. Saturday Night through Tuesday...VFR. No significant weather. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisories from Little Egg Inlet to Fenwick Island have been allowed to expire as of 3 PM. East winds around 10-20 kt this afternoon will become south- southeast overnight tonight with seas around 3-4 feet. For Friday, south-southwest winds will increase to around 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt late in the day. Seas around 3-5 feet. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all Atlantic coastal waters beginning at 3 PM on Friday. Fair weather expected through tonight and into Friday morning. A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected late Friday afternoon into the evening. Locally gusty and erratic winds arepossible at times. Outlook... Friday Night...The Gale Watch was replaced by a Small Craft Advisory for all marine zones as wind gusts should be around 20 to 30 kt. Wave heights of 4 to 5 feet expected. Saturday...The Gale Watch remains in place for Saturday for all marine zones. Wind gusts out of the north/northwest will be right around 34 kt. Seas of 4 to 7 feet. Saturday Night...The Gale Watch was extended to now include Saturday Night for the outer marine zones as lingering gusts near 34 kt are possible (50% chance). Winds on the inner zones fall below 30 kts and an SCA will be needed when Gale headlines end. Sunday...Winds fall below 25 kt but seas linger near 5 feet, which could result in Small Craft Advisory conditions. Sunday Night through Tuesday...No marine headlines expected. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ430- 431. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for ANZ430-431-450>455. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ450>455. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for ANZ480>483-485. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Hoeflich/MPS AVIATION...DeSilva/Hoeflich MARINE...DeSilva/Hoeflich  200 FXUS63 KDVN 151903 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 203 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A widespread rain showers will occur through early evening with possibly a rumble of thunder in the south. No severe storms are expected. - A strong cold front will sweep through the area tonight bringing windy conditions into Friday. Wind gusts over 40 mph are possible. - Frost is a certainty across the area late Friday night into Saturday morning. The probability of a light freeze north of Highway 34 are now 40-60 percent. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The storms system in the Midwest, at least through Noon, has been noted by both areas of significant rainfall, and by locations where rains have been very light and showery. Our CWA is on the lighter end of that scale, largely due to dry mid level air, which is quickly filling in early this afternoon. Low pressure has been elongated from Oklahoma through northeast Iowa, resulting in a a challenging placement of the rain showers, despite rather moist low levels and warm advection over a broad area. Those moist low levels, have created extensive low cloud cover, as well a poor visibilities in our region, and that has helped keep the warm sector from working northward, and with that, the strong thunderstorm chances today, are going to be south of our CWA, into central MO, and southern IL. I have added fog to our forecast grids in the hours of the low passing by this afternoon. This could result in a SPS being issued for low visibility. Light to moderate showers will continue to fill in and stream northeast over the CWA this afternoon and early evening, as low pressure intensifies from the "double barreled" low in it's current state, to one surface low over northern Illinois, while the strong high pressure heads southeast creating a very tight pressure gradient in cold advection over our area from this evening through Friday afternoon. The strongest winds aloft, at the top of the CWA mixed layer are forecast from 06z through 15Z Friday, with some models showing 40 kts about 3kft aloft. At a typical 80% surface verification of the top of the mixed layer, we should expect most winds gusts tonight in the 30 to 40 mph range, with a few isolated gusts up to 45 mph possible at it's peak. I think the best way forward is to keep the forecast below advisory levels, while also supporting messaging on the northwest wind as a hazard tonight. Following a blustery, windy Friday, largely under clouds and spotty showers, the next question is whether we freeze or frost Friday night. Clouds are expected to thin out during the evening, and if winds can decrease under 5 mph, we could see some near 32 degree temperatures in the north half, however, that possibility remains around 50-60%, outside of the Highway 20 corridor, with most spots seeing values more typical for a Frost Advisory. At this stage of the game, offices are collaborating Freeze Watches which may be converted to freeze warnings or frost advisories. Our office will be going with a Freeze Watch for areas northwest of Keokuk County through Carroll County. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The cool Canadian high pressure will be moving to the south and east of the region starting Sunday. This large synoptic movement will bring in a prolonged period of south to southwest winds to the region, and with that, temperatures rising back above normal through most of the week ahead. This rather high confidence warmer than normal has been supported by CPC outlooks for several days, and might appear to some as another wave of heat, but in this case, we're looking at pleasant weather, with highs in the 70s, and lows in the 40s and 50s. Any cloud cover or precipitation chances remain silent in the week ahead, as an upper ridge builds aloft mid week. Once that pattern breaks down, which may not be until the weekend or beyond, dry weather should be the dominant feature of the forecast. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A broad storm system will tighten to a low pressure over northeast Illinois by this evening. This will occur, while a strong high pressure builds southeast into the Plains. The result will be widespread IFR to MVFR conditions in low cigs between 400 and 1000 ft, and visibility variable 1 to 5 miles in rain and fog this afternoon and early evening. As the low moves to northeast Illinois around 00z, winds will switch to northwest and greatly increase to sustained 15 to 20 kts, gusting to 30 to 35 kts, lasting through Friday morning. These cold, stronger winds will be accompanied by mainly MVFR cigs, and possibly some light showers at times. Towards the end of the period, dry air arriving into the region should begin to break up the cloud cover, or at least allow cigs to lift above MVFR levels. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>066-076. IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for ILZ001-002-007. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...Ervin AVIATION...Ervin  207 FXUS65 KPIH 151903 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 103 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Afternoon highs gradually warm over the next several days. - Dry conditions are also expected through the weekend. - Wetter and cooler conditions return by mid-week next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 103 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High pressure remains in place through the weekend with temperatures continuing to warm to around or slightly above normal. Saturday looks to be the warmest with afternoon highs rising into the mid 60s for many. Dry conditions remain in place through the weekend into the beginning of the work week. Beginning early next week, an upper low drops south along the west coast. Increasing southerly flow looks to bring moisture north into East Idaho by Tuesday, possibly as early as late Monday for some. The southerly flow MAY be able to enhance precipitation into portions of the central mountains late Tuesday into Wednesday. Ensemble means dig the upper low south into southern Nevada in a split flow pattern through late Wednesday, then slowly weakens and ejects the trough northeast through the remainder of the week. Clusters tell a much different story with significant differences in treatment of the split low. NBM appears to split the difference, keeping East Idaho unsettled and cool for the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1129 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Expect VFR conditions through the period and through out the foreseeable future. High pressure is in place and is forecast to remain through at least Saturday. Expect clear skies and overall light winds today and likely through Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 158 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High pressure will be in control of our forecast for the rest of this week and through the weekend. Highs will continue to gradually warm with most returning to the mid 60s by Saturday afternoon. Dry conditions across the area mean min RHs drop to 15-25 percent in the Central Mountains on Friday, which looks to be the driest day of the next several. It's not until next week that we see highs drop back into the 50s and precipitation chances return to the forecast. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DMH AVIATION...TW FIRE WEATHER...AMM  770 FXUS63 KIWX 151911 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 311 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - An area of rain showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will overspread the area into early evening. Scattered stronger showers and storms are expected mid to late evening in advance of a cold front south of US-24. - There is a Marginal Risk of severe storms in the 8pm to midnight ET timeframe mainly south of US Route 24. The main threat would be isolated damaging wind gusts, but confidence in severe weather is low. - Turning much cooler and windy for Friday with some lake effect rain showers expected. The strongest wind gusts are expected downwind of Lake Michigan across Berrien and La Porte Counties where some gusts to 45 mph will be possible Friday afternoon and evening. - There are chances of frost both Friday night and Saturday night. - After below normal temperatures this weekend, temperatures will warm back above normal early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Low level warm/moist advection is increasing this afternoon as a mid/upper ridge axis shifts across the eastern Great Lakes. Low level flow will continue to strengthen over the next several hours with some pockets of better low level moisture convergence associated with speed convergence overspreads the area. Surface low pressure across NE Missouri will deepen some as a pair of upper level short waves advance east from central CONUS. The first of these waves is across the Central Plains this afternoon and will rapidly get ingested northeast into stronger west- southwest flow downstream of a more potent/dynamic upper level trough currently digging across the Dakotas. This evolution still looks inline to support a rapidly northward lifting warm front through this evening with a sharp increase in low level moisture and northward shift of pool of better instability from southeast MO into southern IN/western KY. It still appears as though locations in local area south of US Route 24 will have a brief window of weak MLCAPES (100-300 J/kg) in the 01Z-05Z timeframe tonight. Some weak prefrontal trough forcing may contribute to more scattered convection after initial bands of rain showers later this afternoon/early evening, with an environment potentially with some near sfc based instability to work with. While instability magnitudes will remain quite weak, robust low level and deep layer shear profiles will build in from the southwest, so will still have to be watching for some isolated strong-severe potential mid-late evening and possibly into early overnight for areas south of US-24. The more favorable combination of CAPE/shear still looks to be displaced south from southern IL to central IN where some isolated tornado potential cannot be ruled out given low level shear profiles. Confidence in severe weather potential as far north as local area remains on the low side, but will continue to monitor far southern locations later this evening/early overnight. A good deal of cloud cover/limited instability and stronger forcing displaced west and northwest of local area may be limiting factors for isolated severe threat. Sfc low pressure will continue to deepen Friday morning across far SE Ontario/Quebec as the more potent northern Plains trough approaches the western Great Lakes. Low level height gradient, while strong on Friday, does not look as strong as several forecast cycles ago as a secondary west-east low level trough axis will be dropping into the region Friday afternoon. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will look reasonable for most of the area with an exception of potential 40+ mph gusts closer to Lake Michigan shoreline. A Wind Advisory has been issued for Berrien MI and LaPorte IN Counties for Friday 18Z to Saturday 03Z. The potential strongest winds look to be in the 18Z-00Z period following secondary trough passage, with warm lake waters helping post-frontal mixing. After 00Z confidence in stronger wind gusts begins to diminish somewhat as some thermal modification of mass fields could lead to weak lake aggregate trough and a slackening of the gradient. This process should prolong the potential of lake effect rain showers into Friday night across NW IN and perhaps far SW Lower MI. The strong negative upper height anomaly will be progressive through the region with expansive longwave upper ridge spreading across central CONUS Saturday. A few nights of frost potential still look on track. On Friday night there could be an area across central portions of the forecast area that may be situated between lingering lake effect clouds to the west, and lingering better mixing to the east to allow for some patchy frost. Saturday night/Sunday AM will also feature patchy frost potential, with best chances across approx SE 2/3rd of the area as weak return southwest flow develops across western/southern Great Lakes. Much of next work week looks much quieter weather-wise as primary storm track remains across southern Canada while longwave ridging dominates central part of the country. Confidence is high in gradual warm up to above normal levels during the early to middle portions of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1259 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Low pressure over far northern MO this afternoon slowly lifts northeast through the TAF period. Disorganized area of showers ahead of a warm front is slowly approaching from the SW. The inherited PROB30 -TSRA remains on track. Questionable instability limits confidence in thunder at both KSBN and KFWA. A period of IFR to even LIFR ceilings are favored at KSBN as the low's centroid moves near the terminal. Wind veers and quickly increases in speed during the overnight. Lake effect rain showers occur just beyond this TAF period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM CDT Friday for INZ103-203. OH...None. MI...Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 11 PM EDT Friday for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046. Gale Warning from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ043- 046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Marsili AVIATION...Brown  019 FXUS61 KLWX 151915 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 315 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisories and a subsequent Gale Watch have been issued for increasing winds starting Friday afternoon through Sunday morning. Sky & PoPs outlooks were slightly changed to reflect ongoing precipitation. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A strong cold front brings gusty winds & potential for severe thunderstorms on Friday. - 2) Below average temperatures Sunday through Wednesday. Possible frost and freezing temperatures in the Appalachians early Sunday. Dry each period. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front brings gusty winds & potential for severe thunderstorms on Friday. As a passing cold front sags to the south, scattered showers will continue to move through the region throughout this afternoon and into tonight. Instability remains limited, limiting thunderstorm coverage overall as this front gradually slides south of the area overnight. By tomorrow, a brief period of warm temperatures and sunny conditions returns as southwest winds gradually increase throughout the day. Meanwhile, a deep digging trough forming over the Midwest will quickly traverse the Ohio River Valley before tracking towards the East Coast, forming a line of thunderstorms that will move through in the afternoon & evening timeframe. Combined with warmer temperatures (with highs in the 80s by Friday afternoon) and low-end instability, some of these thunderstorms could become severe as the associated cold front tracks through the region. Due to conditions remaining relatively dry (ensemble guidance indicates PWATs ranging from 1.2-1.4 inches), the primary hazard will likely be gusty to damaging winds as DCAPE ranges in the low-1000s and shear remains elevated. SPC has included the metro regions in a Slight risk for severe weather impacts during this time period. While damaging wind gusts are going to be the primary threat, a quick QLCS tornado spin- up is certainly possible. This line of thunderstorms pushes east of the area by late Friday night, but the trough will lag behind this line of thunderstorms and traverse the area throughout the day Saturday. Thus, additional rain showers remain possible into the weekend as this trough finally pushes through. While winds likely remain elevated through this period, with peak gusts over the mountains approaching 30-40 MPH, most areas likely stay below wind advisory criteria. Conditions begin to clear by Sunday, with much colder temperatures settling in in the wake of the front. Highs on Saturday only reach the mid-50s as the trough moves through, with continued cooler temperatures anticipated through the start of next week. KEY MESSAGE 2...Below average temperatures Sunday through Wednesday. Possible frost and freezing temperatures in the Appalachians early Sunday. Dry each period. A sharp transition to cold weather is expected behind a strong cold front this weekend. This dry airmass in combination with clearing skies and weakening winds creates an ideal environment for efficient radiational cooling conditions throughout the area. Overnight temperatures could drop to near or below freezing west of the Blue Ridge on Saturday and Sunday night. Most areas across our region have opportunities for frost to form, particularly west of I-95. High pressure will build across the region Sunday through Wednesday. Light and variable winds in the mountains of the Appalachians could result in areas of frost and near freezing temperatures Sunday morning. Elsewhere and otherwise, dry conditions Sunday through Wednesday in part to the area of high pressure. Temperatures will modify some toward late Tuesday into Wednesday. &&.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Terminals will continue to see gradually lowering CIGs today as a stalling cold front produces scattered showers throughout the afternoon & evening. Periods of IFR are likely this evening into tonight, with CIGs gradually improving by Friday morning. Some patchy fog could linger in the early morning after showers transition east, with VFR conditions returning soon afterwards. A second cold front bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms will bring back sub-VFR conditions beginning Friday afternoon and into the evening. Some of these storms could become severe, producing gusty to damaging winds. Low clouds from this line of thunderstorms could linger into Saturday morning, with conditions returning to VFR after sunrise Saturday. Easterly winds shift southerly by Friday morning, with wind gusts up to 20-25 knots possible ahead of the cold front. Winds shift northwesterly by Saturday morning in the wake of the front, with gusts staying elevated throughout the day Saturday before diminishing overnight. VFR conditions Sunday through Monday night. Winds north 5 to 15 knots Sunday, becoming light and variable Sunday night through Monday night. && .MARINE... Winds have fallen below SCA criteria as of this afternoon. Easterly winds shift southerly overnight, staying below SCA thresholds until Friday morning. Winds could gust up to 20-25 knots Friday afternoon, with locally higher gusts possible throughout the afternoon & evening as scattered thunderstorms move through the region. Winds shift northwesterly early Saturday morning in the wake of the cold front, potentially reaching gale conditions later that day. A Gale Watch has been issued for the lower portions of the Bay until Sunday morning as this front pushes through. Winds will diminish Sunday afternoon through Monday night. Winds northeast 15 to 20 knots gusts 25 to 30 knots Sunday morning. Winds quickly diminishing 10 to 15 knots Sunday afternoon through Monday night and becoming light and variable. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>543. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for ANZ532>534-537-543. && $$ DISCUSSION...SRT/KLW/KRR AVIATION...SRT/KLW MARINE...SRT/KLW  972 FXUS63 KGRB 151915 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 215 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing, widespread rain this afternoon and evening, becoming scattered overnight into Friday. Probabilities for 1 inch or greater range from 60 to 90%. - Northwest winds increase on Friday, with gusts between 30 and 40 mph, and a 30% probability that lake shore counties could receive gusts to 45 mph. Gale force gusts are expected across marine zones. - A Freeze Watch has been issued for Friday night as temperatures are likely to fall into the upper 20s in locations away from Lake Michigan. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Precip...Small adjustments/increases in QPF over the next 24 hours, otherwise forecast remains similar to the previous update. Moisture plume associated with sfc low/shortwave in the central Plains has been spreading northeast today and resulted in onset of widespread rain across central and northeast WI. Expect steady rain to continue this afternoon and evening, followed by rain becoming scattered overnight as two energy areas phase across the Great Lakes and move east. Lingering low-level moisture and trailing surface trough will keep widely scattered rain and drizzle in the forecast throughout Friday morning, and into the afternoon for the east. Event total rain amounts will range from approximately 0.75 to 1.10 inches, with probabilities of exceeding 1 inch of rain now ranging from 60 to 90%. Most of this will occur before 06Z/Fri, with around 0.20 inch or less after that time. Wind...As northern and southern stream lows approach from the northwest and southwest, then phase just east of WI, expect tightening pressure gradient to result in strong north to northwest winds on Friday. Gusts of 30 to 35 mph are forecast area wide. Potential for wind gusts reaching 45 mph are greatest near the lake shore, where this is a small potential for wind-related headlines. However, right now the probability of exceeding 45 mph gusts stands around 30%. See MARINE section for additional wind information. Temperatures...Cold front associated with northern stream low will usher in a cooler batch of air for a couple days. Clouds and wind will keep temps in the mid 30s and 40s tonight, but clearing skies and lights winds on Friday night will allow readings to fall below freezing in most locations. Probabilities range from 40 to 80% for a hard freeze, lows of 28 degrees or cooler, away from the lake shore counties. Therefore, a Freeze Watch was issued for all counties where the growing season continues, aside from Door County. Temperatures quickly start to rebound on Sunday with highs back in the 60s for several days. Next week...High pressure will result in low impact weather into at least the middle of next week, with temperatures AOA normal, little to no precip chances until at least Thursday, and light winds. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Flying conditions will continue deteriorating to primarily IFR for the rest of today and tonight, with some improvement to MVFR late in the TAF period on Friday morning. Ongoing widespread rain will move northeast into the rest of northeast WI over the next 1-2 hours; and then persist for the afternoon and evening, leading to low cigs and vsbys. Temporary dips to LIFR over the next 12 hours with cigs right around the 500 ft threshold. Rain transitions to scattered to isolated coverage after 06Z/Fri, but low cigs and vsby remain. Improvements to MVFR occur around or after 09Z/Fri as ceilings rise and patchy fog clears out, but as this occurs NW winds increase, with gusts up to 30 kts. LLWS is also present at 2kft for central and north-central WI on Friday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Gradient winds on the back edge of the departing surface low ramp up Thursday night into Friday morning, putting us solidly within northwest flow and CAA regime. Deep daytime mixing will tap into 45 to 50 knot winds at 850 mb Friday afternoon, which will result in a brief window for gale force gusts over all marine zones through Friday evening. NBM probabilistic guidance continues to show a healthy signal (60 to 90%) for gusts exceeding 34 kts, highest along the Lake Michigan nearshore waters south of Kewaunee. Waves build 7 to 10 ft on the Lake and 4 to 7 ft on the Bay during this time, subsiding Friday night as winds shift to more westerly and the pressure gradient eases up. Gale Warning remains in effect. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for WIZ020-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074. && $$ DISCUSSION.....KLJ AVIATION.......KLJ MARINE.........Goodin/KLJ  105 FXUS63 KGLD 151919 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 119 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy this afternoon with gusts up to 55 mph in northeast Colorado and 30-50 mph elsewhere. Some patchy blowing dust possible in Colorado. - Frost and light freeze possible tonight, then a light freeze likely Saturday morning with a hard freeze possible. - Critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon, mainly in northeast Colorado. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 118 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Current mid-level water vapor imagery and analysis show a deep, positively tilted trough accompanied by a strong jet streak over the Tri-State area. Clouds have been slow to clear this morning, but have started to clear in areas in the early afternoon. Chances for light showers throughout the area continue until around sunset. If and when the clouds clear for the area will determine the severity of the wind threat for today. If clouds clear sooner, the risk for strong winds will increase as stronger winds will be able to mix down to the surface. If cloud cover remains thick or fails to clear, the overall wind threat could diminish. Mostly northwesterly winds with gusts around 30 mph are expected throughout the area. Counties along and west of the Colorado/Kansas border could see gusts around 45 mph. As of 12pm MDT, portions of eastern Colorado have reported wind gusts around 40 mph. Winds will start to calm down around midnight, but breezy conditions with gusts around 30 mph are possible through Friday morning. Areas that receive little to no precipitation could see localized blowing dust accompanying the stronger winds. For tonight, a Freeze Warning has been issued for our Colorado counties. A Freeze Watch remains in effect for Cheyenne, Sherman, Wallace, and Greeley counties in Kansas and Dundy county in Nebraska. Current NBM probabilities have our Colorado counties around a 80% chance of temperatures below 32 F. The line of counties east of the Colorado/Kansas and Colorado/Nebraska border have a 20- 40% chance of temperatures below 32 F, with chances increasing east to west. Breezy conditions and cool temperatures continue Friday with high temperatures forecast in the 50s. Gusts around 35 mph are possible as the jet streak over our area from Thursday continues to traverse east. Clear skies are expected to persist throughout the day, so we have another chance of temperatures below freezing overnight into Saturday. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the entire Tri-State area Friday night through Saturday morning. A warming trend begins Saturday as we transition toward an upper- level ridge pattern with south-southwest surface winds. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s to 70s for the region. Afternoon wind gusts up to 35 mph are possible, with the highest gusts expected for our Colorado counties. Afternoon relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the low teens for the western county warning area (CWA). Strong winds coincide with the lowest RH values of the day, so a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions are likely Saturday afternoon. RH values have the potential to further drop due to south-southwest winds continuing to dry out conditions. Grassland Fire Danger (GFDI) values are forecast in the 30s to 40s for our Colorado counties, so fires that start are likely to spread rapidly and show erratic behavior. Fire weather concerns diminish after sundown. Clear skies are expected overnight into Sunday. Low temperatures are forecast in the upper 30s to low 40s for the area. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 242 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Southwest flow aloft via longwave ridge is anticipated on Sunday to kick off this forecast period. Said ridge, centered over the western Great Lakes region, should propagate fairly quickly to the east over the course of the day Monday. Upper-level winds become zonal through Monday. Guidance currently projects a second ridge to develop on Tuesday across the the Plains region, settling the flow pattern back to southwesterly through the middle of next week. This, all ahead of an upper-level low that is expected to move across the SW CONUS through Wednesday. Guidance does outline a brief shortwave early Monday which should move out of the County Warning Area (CWA) by the time the evening comes around. Not much is expected to come from this trough passage other that a wind shift. A weak surface low is likely to form over eastern Colorado Sunday, moving into western Kansas Monday. This feature also should not do much other than pressure changes and wind shifts. Ensemble guidance is beginning to pick up a stronger surface low that may set up near the Tri-State area late Wednesday. Forecast guidance anticipates conditions to be quite dry across the CWA through early Wednesday. 5% or less PoPs (Probability of Precipitation) are favored throughout the region. This may not last though as an upper-level low, mentioned in the above section, paired with low-pressure at the surface could bring the next decent rainfall chances to our region late Wednesday. Guidance is currently not very confident on widespread precipitation, but a general 15-25% PoPs is forecasted at this point in time. Surface analysis/QPF doesn't show much accumulation for our area right now; nonetheless, still worth monitoring as this event draws closer. Moving on to high/low temperatures for the coverage area, a slight warmup is expected across the board as we rebound from well-below average highs. Temps in the low/mid 70s are likely Sunday and Monday, with a slight uptick to mid/upper 70s Tuesday then upper 70s/low 80s possible next Wednesday. With respect to overnight lows, Sunday morning is likely to be the coldest, with temps expected to approach the mid 30s. Lows will then gradually warm up above the mid 30s, with upper 30s/low 40s expected Monday morning. Tuesday and Wednesday should continue this warming trend with low/mid 40s and then upper 40s/low 50s expected, respectively. As for fire weather concerns, the potential for critical fire conditions will be low, but not zero. Relative humidity (RH) values are likely to reach the mid-teens (14-15%) in our eastern Colorado counties on Sunday. Meanwhile, surface winds over these areas should sit around 15-20 mph from the north, gusting up to 30 mph. Going forward, RH values are anticipated as low as the upper teens west of US-385 Monday and Tuesday, but winds should be light and variable; thus, the fire weather outlook likely will be milder post-Sunday. For the rest of the CWA, RH values in the 20-40% range is to be expected with generally 5-15 mph winds. Winds will initially be from the south Monday, shifting to the north and east with the shortwave, then settling back to more of a southerly direction. Gusts are not likely to exceed 25 mph during this forecast period everywhere east of the Colorado/Kansas state line. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1146 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 For both terminals, low ceilings are expected to lift throughout the early afternoon and skies should be mostly clear by 00Z. Conditions will be windy today with winds mostly out of the northwest with gusts around 35 knots. Winds will start to diminish Friday late morning. Patchy low-level wind shear is possible overnight for both terminals. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.Freeze Watch from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight through Friday morning for KSZ001-013-027-041. CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Friday for COZ090>092. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NEZ079>081. Freeze Watch from midnight MDT tonight through Friday morning for NEZ079. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rhoades LONG TERM...024/AMP AVIATION...Rhoades  228 FXHW60 PHFO 151922 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 922 AM HST Thu Oct 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A high pressure system far northwest of the Hawaiian Islands will slowly drift from west to east over the next few days. This passing system will increase easterly trade winds into the moderate to breezy range lasting into the middle of next week. Brief pulses of enhanced showers are forecast with three passing easterly waves during this time period. Increasing shower trends will favor the windward mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours starting Friday night and lingering into Tuesday morning. The strongest of these three waves will pass through the islands from Sunday night into Tuesday morning. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE...Isolated to scattered trade showers continue this morning, mainly across windward and mauka areas, but a few are bleeding over to leeward areas. These showers should diminish in coverage and intensity in most areas heading into the afternoon. The exception will be on the Big Island, where windward showers will continue and Kona showers will develop this afternoon as a weak easterly wave moves through. The forecast is on track and no update is needed this morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 AM HST Thu Oct 15 2026 The satellite imagery this morning shows a lingering band of unstable showers riding into the windward mountain slopes of each island on the trade winds. Periods of windward and mountain showers should be expected for the typical areas, more isolated showers are possible for drier leeward locations. Increased rainfall coverage in the morning forecast to account for the additional activity. These enhanced trade wind shower trends will diminish in coverage a few hours after sunrise due to the typical diurnal day time stability trends. Farther to the east, the satellite imagery verifies three short waves moving towards the islands within the easterly trade winds. These easterly waves will bring pulses of showers to all islands as they march across the island chain from Friday into early next week. In the big picture, we continue to track a high pressure system currently located far northwest of the Hawaiian Islands drifting eastward over the next few days. This migratory high will increase easterly trade winds into the moderate to breezy range lasting into next week Tuesday. Periods of wet weather remain in the weather forecast for this weekend as the three low level easterly waves will ride into the islands on the strengthening trade winds. Three pulses of higher shower coverage will favor Friday night, then late Saturday, and the last one unfolding from Sunday through Monday. The last of these easterly short wave troughs might be the strongest of the three with enhanced showers extending over the typically drier leeward areas at times. Forecasting rainfall amounts with these waves is always challenging due to variations in arrival timing and their intensity relative to each island. A larger degree of uncertainty remains in the long range forecast from next week Wednesday onward. Both the American (GFS) and European (ECMWF) global forecast models continue to show diverging solutions for a passing middle latitude trough as the trough digs in and potentially approaches the islands from the northwest. The GFS model solution deepens this trough into a large cut off low north of Kauai and secondary upper low deepens northeast of the Big Island from Thursday into Saturday. The GFS shows us a wetter solution for sure as upper level cold core temperatures and additional divergence aloft will lift inversion heights and produce a surface trough likely producing southeasterly to southerly winds near the islands at some point. However, the ECMWF model presents a much more stable solution with two weaker upper lows north of the state. This european model solution will produce more stable conditions, as compared to the GFS model, with a typical trade wind shower pattern setup. We will continue to closely monitor this long range forecast time period for potential island by island weather impacts as the model solutions begin to converge and the weather forecast becomes clearer over the next several days. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION... Trade winds will become more gusty today and isolated showers across windward areas of the Big Island could create isolated MVFR condition and possibly into Maui. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail over the rest of the terminals. No AIRMETs are in effect, however as winds increase, AIRMET Tango may be needed for mechanical turbulence to the lee of the mountains. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure far northwest of the islands will move closer today, then build as it shifts north and then northeast of Hawaii on Friday. As a result, trade winds will gradually increase to fresh to locally strong levels over the next couple of days. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the typically windy waters around Big Island and Maui beginning at 6 am this morning. A stronger surface high will arrive far north of the islands late Saturday and Sunday, likely increasing trade winds further, which may necessitate an expansion of the SCA to additional waters. Elevated trade winds will persist into early next week. The current small bump in the northwest swell will fade tonight before a moderate north-northwest swell arrives Friday and continues through the weekend. Surf along north and west-facing shores should top out around seasonal average or slightly higher during the peak of the swell Friday afternoon and Saturday, then slowly decline late Saturday and Sunday as the dropping swell shifts more northerly and a smaller overlapping northwest swell arrives. Both swells will fade early next week. A new long-periond south swell builds today and may push surf along south-facing shores back above seasonal average into Friday. The swell will slowly decline Saturday through early next week. Surf along east-facing shores will begin to increase this afternoon into tonight as trade winds strengthen over the region. Expect some wrap from the moderate north-northwest swell tomorrow afternoon into Saturday. Rough trade wind swell will produce east shore surf above seasonal average Saturday through early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 331 AM HST Thu Oct 15 2026 A high pressure system far north of the islands drifting eastward, will produce moderate to breezy trade winds for the next few days. Minimum relative humidity levels will for most areas remain out of critical fire threshold ranges. The stronger trade winds will mainly impact higher elevation areas with even higher minimum humidity levels. Subsidence temperature inversion heights today near Maui and the Big Island will drop into the 6,000 to 7,000 foot elevation range this afternoon. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel. && $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...Parker DISCUSSION...Bohlin AVIATION...PECHACEK MARINE...Farris  276 FXUS64 KLIX 151924 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 224 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 138 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - A strong cold front will move through late tomorrow, bringing cooler and much drier conditions along with very strong northerly winds. This will lead to multiple impacts. - First impact is elevated fire weather concerns. Fire Weather Watch has already been issued for all of southwestern MS and portions of southeast LA for Saturday but if the front speeds up anymore a Red Flag Warning may be needed for far northwestern portions of the CWA for Friday afternoon and early evening. - Strong northerly winds behind the front will lead to hazardous marine conditions. A Gale Watch has been issued for all of the coastal waters beginning tomorrow evening through Saturday evening. Marine headlines may be needed for much of the coastal waters into the new work week. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Sunday night) Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 BLUF - FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE INCREASING and a Fire Weather Watch has already been issued for the northwestern half of the CWA. The cold front will quickly move through tomorrow and behind it much drier and cooler air will quickly build in behind it. This front is going to likely be dry so little to any rain is expected over the area. For all fire weather concerns please refer to Fire Weather Section below. The other impact from this front and will be a welcome one is the much cooler temps. Models and especially the NBm really struggle with the early season fronts and how much mixing we will see. It appears that the Model guidance both MOS and raw is catching up and shows rather dry conditions overnight tomorrow night through Saturday night. The other part that the NBM tends to struggle with is overnight lows in these situations, especially the second night low. Guidance continues to trend cooler and cooler for Sunday morning and even has gotten quite cool for Friday ngiht/Saturday morning. Unless the CAA is much stronger that what is currently being advertised by the models I think some of the guidance is being a little overzealous with the cool down tomorrow night. it will still be rather cool with lows in the 50s maybe the outside chance of the far northwest dropping into the upper 40s. As for Saturday night almost everything is set for the coldest night of the season. In fact guidance continues to trend down with all of the main MOS products showing some location's dropping into the lower 40s. The biggest question with Saturday night is wind. The models still show winds staying up at h925 and h850 all night with h925 winds possibly up to 25 kts all night across the eastern half of the CWA. Even if the sfc winds are able to drop and even decouple, low level winds of this magnitude will still promote some mixing. With that I have used a mix of the MOS guidance and NBM for lows Sunday morning which shows lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Wednesday night) Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The very pleasant conditions this weekend will quickly depart however it will still feel more like fall going into next week. Medium range models overall are in general agreement with the pattern over our area and the biggest thing is...expect the lack of rain to continue and the temperatures to slowly climb. No adjustments from the NBM in the long term. The disturbance that brings our front tomorrow and the northwest flow behind it quickly breaks down before we even get into the new work week. Ridging already over TX and the western Gulf quickly builds in Monday and it will just dominate the regionwell into next week. High pressure at the sfc will quickly shift to the northeast however we will still be dominated by high pressure as a large anti-cyclone over south-central Canada south of the Hudson Bay and it will wedge all the way into the Lower MS Valley and even over the TX coast. This is going to keep us dry with no rain in the forecast however we won't see dewpoints recover greatly and thus overnight lows should still be fairly comfortable. On the other hand the LL temps will begin to moderate and we will likely be back in the mid 80s over much of the area by Tuesday. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 All terminals are in VFR now and most will likely persist through much of the night but around 9/10z we may begin to see some terminal drop into MVFR as low clouds try to develop and even some reduced vsbys. However confidence is rather low in both of these so hold off showing major impacts at this time. Most likely location to see low clouds appears to be coastal MS where LL winds do begin to increase likely driving more low cigs. The northwest around BTR and MCB may have the best chance of reduced vsbys as they will likely go calm first overnight and have the longest and best chance of developing some radiation fog. /CAB/ && .MARINE... Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The last bit of benign marine conditions will occur tonight but by tomorrow afternoon/evening conditions will become extremely impactful. A strong cold front will move through late Friday and Friday night, bringing strong northerly winds and rapidly building seas. Gale conditions are possible across all of the coastal waters and with that we have issued a Gale Watch beginning tomorrow night and continuing through Saturday evening. Some locations like the tidal lakes and near shore waters will likely be able to come down to a Small Craft Advisory Saturday at some point but strong winds will persist into Sunday. Winds will gradually turn easterly Sunday and slack off some but there is a good chance that headline may be needed into the beginning to the new work week. /CAB/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Main concern is the near critical fire weather conditions expected to develop behind our strong cold front tomorrow. Greatest importance is the Fire Weather Watch we have issued for all of swMS and portions of seLA along and northwest of a line from Thibodaux to Franklinton. The front is now expected to move through during the afternoon tomorrow and that may provide an increased risk if fire weather conditions for tomorrow now. Winds will quickly shift out of the north and pick up after the front moves through and the much drier air will not be far behind. If this front speeds up anymore the RH could drop to critical levels and as winds increase wildfire spread could become a problem late Friday afternoon. The higher confidence with respect to fire danger is Saturday. The much drier air will continue to surge into the area overnight with dewpoints possibly dropping into the 30s over a good portion of the CWA. On Saturday we will see sunny skies and winds in the first 1500-3000 ft will be out of the same direction (out of the NNE) allowing for efficient mixing. The sunny skies and unidirectional winds will promote efficient mixing. This will likely lead to wind gusts of 15-20 mph with some gusts approaching 30 mph across most locations along and north of I-10. This will is also going to lead to even drier air mixing into the area with the RH expected to drop into the mid to lower 30% range with some locations seeing the min RH below 30%. This will combine with current D1 and D2 drought conditions across all of southwest Mississippi and much of southeast LA along and northwest of a line from Thibodaux to Franklinton. This could provide ample fuel for wildfires. The combination of breezy to gusty winds, current drought conditions, ample fuel, and very dry conditions will allow any fire that develops to spread quickly. /CAB/ && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056-057-071-076-079>086. GM...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for GMZ529-531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577. MS...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for MSZ068>071. GM...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for GMZ531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ SHORT TERM...CAB LONG TERM....CAB AVIATION...CAB MARINE...CAB  330 FXUS65 KTFX 151925 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 125 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures trend warmer through Saturday before cooling slightly Sunday into early next week. - Gusty to locally strong westerly winds develop along the Rocky Mountain Front and the plains Friday and especially Saturday. - Pacific weather systems look to bring cooler temperatures and periods of rain and mostly mountain snow heading towards the second half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: Ridging aloft migrates into the Northern Rockies and brings continued clearing skies tonight, along with some patchy AM fog over the wind protected valleys of southwest and north-central MT. H500 heights peak above 580 dm and warms high temperatures well into the 60s and 70s Friday and Saturday. The combination of increased westerly flow aloft and deep layer mixing will also bring gusty to locally strong winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and the plains during this timeframe. The strongest winds will occur Saturday afternoon when H700 flow increases to the 50 to 70 kt range in advance of a fast approaching trough traveling eastward along the Canadian border. Forecast afternoon RH's were lowered to the upper teens to middle 20s for most lower elevation locations, though fire weather down A more relaxed zonal flow sets up on Sunday for slightly cooler temperatures and lighter winds. A closed mid-level low then looks to move onto the Pacific NW coast on Monday before heading southeastward into California and towards the Great Basin area by mi- week. This will bring a southerly flow aloft and a few passing showers over the Northern Rockies while temperatures remain roughly near average. At least half of the ensemble suites highlight another trough approaching the Northern Rockies next Friday/Saturday. Similar to the aforementioned closed low, this new trough will be undergoing shearing and splitting, which decreases forecast position and timing confidence. Overall, there's a general expectation for cooling temperatures and increased instances of rain and mostly mountain snow heading into next weekend. - RCG - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Gusty to strong winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and the plains Friday and Saturday... Breezy to windy conditions develop along the Rocky Mountain Front and the plains Friday afternoon, with localized gusts over 50 mph along the immediate eastern slopes of the front. The windiest period will be Saturday afternoon when westerly flow aloft increases and diurnal mixing transfers some stronger gusts to the surface. Areas along the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I15 look to see routine gusts over 50 mph and have a 50 to 80% chance (highest for the eastern slopes of the front) for instantaneous gusts over 70 mph. Plains locations to the east of I15 will generally see winds gusting in the 30 to 50 mph range, most frequently Saturday afternoon. Impacts will be greatest for the aforementioned areas west of I15 and will include difficult conditions for outdoor recreation over portions of Glacier National Park and neighboring areas of higher terrain. There will also be difficult travel for those operating high profile vehicles or pulling light weight trailers, especially along highway 89 from Chouteau to the Canadian border. The inherited high wind watch remains valid and was left as is for this forecast package. - RCG && .AVIATION... 15/18Z TAF Period VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Mid level clouds will continue to clear out this afternoon across the region. Breezy northwest winds will pull off to the east this afternoon, decreasing winds at KHVR and KLWT. Breezy southwestwinds pick up at KGTF early Friday morning. -Wilson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 35 67 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 27 66 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 29 61 33 68 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 25 59 30 65 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 17 55 19 55 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 26 57 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 27 67 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 26 68 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains- Southern Rocky Mountain Front. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  425 FXUS64 KOUN 151928 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Widespread showers with precipitation band slowly shifting southeast. Areas of heavy rainfall possible.. - Cooler air filtering into area behind a cold front today/tonight. Cool weather expected through the weekend. - Warming trend again next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Widespread showers continue from the southwest portion of the forecast area through central and north central Oklahoma. The precipitation rates are currently not as high as we have experienced earlier with this system, but the heavy rain already received with this system keeps flooding potential in play. There has been an axis of 8 to 11 inches of rain from near the Beckham- Greer County line east-northeast through Washita, southeastern Custer, Canadian, southern Kingfisher and western Oklahoma Counties, and a major flood wave is moving down the Canadian River. Will keep the Flood Watch going, but will likely be able to remove counties from northwest to southeast as drier low-level air spreads into the area and the precipitation axis shifts slowly southeast. For areas roughly southeast of an Archer City-Ardmore- Ada line, precipitation amounts have been lighter (including a 0.00" at the Durant mesonet station so far), so flooding potential is not as high in the southeast. Precipitation will likely move out of the forecast area before sunrise Friday morning. The front will move through the entire area this evening bringing the cooler air through the area. With such widespread rain over the last couple of days, would be concerned about fog potential, but the breezy post-frontal conditions, advection of drier air, and lingering cloud cover will likely prevent significant fog development. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The short term will be dominated by high pressure building into the area. By Saturday morning, a 1035+ mb high is forecast to be sitting over Oklahoma with the ridge axis shifting slowly southeast. With this, cool and dry weather is expected Friday and Saturday. Forecast temperatures across northern and western Oklahoma are in the low to mid 30s on Saturday morning. In coordination with neighboring offices, have issues a Freeze Watch for Harper and Ellis Counties where freezing temperatures are most likely, but other areas of northern and western Oklahoma will at least have the potential of freezing temperatures in low-lying and sheltered areas. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Colder temperatures will continue through the weekend, despite winds returning to southerly by Sunday. A warming trend will continue through the middle parts of the week, as mid-level heights increase. Dry conditions are also expected through the middle of the week as well. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 IFR conditions could linger into the late afternoon for some areas as the axis of showers and thunderstorms is slow to advance southeastward. LLWS will be a concern tonight into Friday morning as a surge of cold air pushes into the area. There is some uncertainty on how long IFR/MVFR conditions persist, but suspect it could trend longer into the overnight hours. Tomorrow morning, breezy north winds are expected with VFR ceilings. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 46 58 39 59 / 20 0 0 0 Hobart OK 47 60 37 60 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 50 61 39 61 / 60 0 0 0 Gage OK 42 57 3261 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 44 58 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 53 64 44 65 / 80 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for OKZ004-009. Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ008-012-013- 017>020-022>042-044>046-050. TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...01  497 FXUS61 KOKX 151930 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 330 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SPC has placed much of the forecast area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms for Friday. The primary threat will be damaging winds. The Gale Watches on the ocean waters have been converted to Small Craft Advisories for Friday, but continue as Gale Watches for Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong frontal system brings showers late tonight into Friday morning and a second round of showers/isolated thunderstorms primarily during Friday evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with a squall line that is forecast to move through. 2) The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NW winds Friday night into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Showers and thunderstorm move through late tonight into early Friday morning in association with an approaching warm front. Thereafter, the region will be warm sectored with an approaching cold front to the west, deepening low pressure over northern New England/southeastern Canada, and a positively tilted upper level trough approaching from the west. After the passage of the warm front and ahead of the approaching cold front, winds shift to the SW and increase somewhat during the afternoon, bringing a surge of low level moisture, with dew points rising well into the 60s. Low level convergence along the cold front will allow for the development of low topped showers and thunderstorms that approach the western portion of the forecast area as a well defined squall line (as per most meso scale models) by late afternoon and early evening hours (anywhere from 5 pm to 7 pm, give or take an hour). With ample moisture in place, increasing low level convergence, and MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly for western portions of the area (NE NJ and Lower Hudson Valley). As the line approaches the coast, weakening is expected. However, even in these locations an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the forecast area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. The cold front and weakening squall line should push offshore between 9 pm and 11 pm, but post frontal rain looks to develop thereafter, keeping the chance for showers in the forecast for Long Island and southern CT through most of Friday night, with lesser chances as you head N and W. .KEY MESSAGE 2... The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NW winds later Friday night into Saturday. As mixing increases in the column immediately behind the cold front look for strong, gusty winds behind the front which may last right through a good portion of the afternoon. Also, behind the front the coolest weather of the fall is likely for the first half of the weekend. Daytime highs Saturday will be in the lower and middle 50s with a gusty NNW wind. Widespread 30s and lower 40s are expected for lows Saturday night. Some temperature moderation is likely towards late in the day on Sunday with daytime temperatures recovering a little into the upper half of the 50s with much lighter winds. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure retreats to the east tonight, while a frontal system approaches from the west. The associated warm front will pass through Friday morning into early afternoon, followed by a cold frontal passage during the late afternoon into early evening hours. VFR until late tonight, then showers will overspread the area from west to east after 06Z with ceilings lowering from MVFR to IFR. Following the warm frontal passage, expect gradual improvement with VFR conditions developing for the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals around 18Z. Eastern terminals should follow a short time later, except for KGON which could take much of the day. NE winds 5-10 kt will shift to the SE this afternoon into this evening. Speeds increase late tonight to around 10 kt at some coastal sites. Winds will then veer to the SW as the warm front passes with the potential for gusts to around 20kt. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of lowering flight categories overnight into Friday morning could vary by 1-2 hours. Same with the improvement late morning into the afternoon. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible after 21Z Friday with the approach of a cold front. Chance of MVFR in showers overnight Friday (following the cold frontal passage). .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Friday Afternoon: Improvement to VFR for the eastern terminals should occur by 21Z, but could take until around or shortly after 00Z Sat for KGON. SW winds G20-25kt in the afternoon. A fine line of showers/embedded thunderstorms approaches from the NW in the later afternoon into early evening hours. A few G40-50kt possible with the line. Friday night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm in the evening, with mainly MVFR conditions, then VFR. Cold frontal passage followed by W-NW winds G25kt. Guidance is also trending toward a round of post-frontal showers Friday night into Saturday morning. Chance of MVFR with these showers. Saturday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G25-30kt, diminishing in the evening. Sunday-Tuesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... The pressure gradient decreases overnight with sub advisory conditions prevailing. However, conditions ramp up during Friday morning with small craft conditions quickly developing in a southerly flow, especially for the afternoon when the winds turn more SW ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front passes through across the waters late Friday night with the winds becoming W, then NW during Saturday morning. Gales over the ocean waters are looking less likely for Friday into Friday night, and have converted Gale Watches to Small Craft Advisories for this period. Gale Watches remain in effect Saturday as there remains some uncertainty with the winds during this time frame, but continues to look less likely at this time. For the non-ocean waters, SCA conditions across the eastern and central sound, Peconic and Gardiner's Bays, while the western sound and harbor look to not reach SCA. By Friday night, SCA conditions expected all non-ocean waters lasting through the day Saturday and possibly into the first half of Saturday night, before subsiding to below SCA conditions. Small craft conditions will likely linger for much of Saturday night on the ocean waters before sub advisory conditions return during Sunday morning. With high pressure building across the waters Sunday and settling nearby into early next week sub advisory conditions are expected to prevail. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ331. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ332- 340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for ANZ350-353-355-380-383-385. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ355. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP AVIATION...DW MARINE...JP  638 FXUS64 KHGX 151935 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 235 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Another day with warm and conditions and an isolated shower or two before cooler weather arrives. - Cold front pushes through the region on late tonight and Friday morning, bringing gusty north winds and much cooler conditions through weekend. - Hazardous marine conditions expected in the wake of the front. A Gale Watch is in effect. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Expect another warm afternoon today with highs in the upper 80s/90s. A few isolated showers could develop, mostly near the coast, but otherwise uneventful compared to whats coming tomorrow. A cold front is expected to push into SE Texas early Friday morning, bringing a significant cool down heading into the weekend. The front should push through College Station some time around 4-7am, moving off the coast between 10am-1pm. This won't be a completely dry frontal passage, as models do show some isolated convection along the front with more scatted development near the coast due to a low level convergence zone created by a prefrontal trough. As mentioned before, weak dynamics and the quick speed of this front take severe/hydro concerns off the table with these storms. Still, this is poised to be a fairly strong cold front, with high pressure behind the front reaching 1040-1050mb over the Plains. 925mb winds behind the front range from 25-45 knots, the apex of which generally falling west of the I-45 corridor. Water temperatures are in the 80s right now, around a 15-20 degree difference between the forecasted air temperature, which should bring especially strong winds across the barrier islands and Gulf waters. Northerly winds of 15-25 mph (30mph along the islands) with higher gusts of 30-40 mph will be possible behind the cold front on Friday. Therefore, a wind advisory will be in effect throughout Friday, mostly for areas west of I-45/along the coast. The Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Gale Warning, and will now take effect earlier to account for a stronger, faster FROPA. Wind advisory will remain in effect overnight for the barrier islands, matching the Gale Warning. Cooler, drier air should fill in behind the front with morning lows for Saturday in the mid 40s/mid 50s inland and upper 50s/lower 60s right along the coast. Daytime highs will also be cooler, generally in the upper 60s/lower 70s. The coldest temperatures are forecasted for Sunday morning, in the lower 40s/lower 50s inland and upper 50s/lower 60s along the immediate coast. Temperatures will gradually warm into next week as ridging builds aloft with a coastal trough setting up over the waters. 03 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 SE Winds and VFR conditions expected this afternoon with light showers possible near the coast. Winds become light and VRB this evening. A cold front will push into SE Texas early Friday morning. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front, in addition to brief CIGS/VIS reduction to MVFR FLs as the front passes. Gusty northerly winds develop behind the front, reaching 15-25 knots with gusts to 25-35 knots possible. JMG/03 && .MARINE... Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue into tonight with rain chances increasing ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front is expected to push off the coast early Friday morning, bringing dangerous marine conditions. Northerly winds of 20- 30 knots are expected during the day, rising to near Gale-Force overnight, with gusts of 40 knots andseas of 7-13 feet. A Gale Warning is in effect beginning at 10am Friday. There is still a chance that gales could begin earlier for Matagorda Bay and the waters west of Freeport, thus additional timing adjustments to the warning cannot be ruled out. Winds and seas begin to decrease Saturday afternoon, though Small Craft Advisories may be needed through early Sunday morning. 03 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Northerly winds of 15-30 mph with higher gusts of 30-40 mph will be possible behind the cold front on Friday. Afternoon humidity will drop to 30-40%, short of reaching Red Flag Warning levels. Still, these strong winds and modestly dry conditions will result in elevated fire wx conditions for Friday afternoon. Texas A&M Forest Service has high to locally extreme fire danger for portions of SE Texas on Friday. Caution is strongly advised when burning outdoors. 03 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 North winds 15-30 mph with higher gusts are probable Friday into Saturday in the wake of the passing cold front. Though breezy to windy conditions are likely, RH values appear to be above Red Flag Warning criteria. That said, caution is strongly advised with outdoor burning. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 64 67 47 67 / 40 20 0 0 Houston (IAH) 70 75 51 70 / 20 20 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 77 78 58 72 / 50 40 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ176- 195>198-210>212-214-226-227-235>238-313-335>338. Wind Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ436>439. GM...Gale Warning from 10 AM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ330- 335-350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...JMG MARINE...03  701 FXUS64 KSHV 151938 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 238 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - A Red Flag Warning is in effect through Friday night. Very low humidity and gusty winds will combine to produce elevated fire weather conditions Friday, possibly continuing into the weekend. - A powerful dry cold front will arrive overnight tonight into tomorrow, bringing much cooler temperatures, significantly drier air and gusty northwest winds. - Behind the front, Saturday will see cooler than average temperatures, followed by a steady warming trend into next week, with dry weather throughout. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 By this time tomorrow, temperatures will be a good 10 to 20 degrees cooler across the ArkLaTex, with the passage of the advertised powerful cold front. This evening will find the upper level trough over the Dakotas and Minnesota absorbing the remnants of the closed low responsible for this week's active weather across the Plains and Ozarks, pushing eastward over the Midwest overnight and into tomorrow, all the while amplifying south and west, to swing its attendant cold front down the southern Plains and Deep South all the way to the Gulf Coast by tomorrow evening. In advance of the approaching front, a few scattered showers cannot be ruled out this evening across southeast Oklahoma and portions of east Texas. Any rainfall which does develop will taper off overnight towards morning, and accumulations are expected to be negligible. Overnight, temperatures will drop to lows in the middle 60s across the southern ArkLaTex, entering the 50s north with the approach and arrival of the front. As with last night's package, the latest guidance is favoring more progressive forward motion of the trough and surface boundary, placing the wind shift heralding the front's impending arrival as soon as midnight in southeastern Oklahoma, with gusty north-northwesterly winds spreading south towards I-20 by daybreak, and areawide by midmorning. The dewpoint gradient indicates the much drier airmass will follow at a slight delay, reaching our northwestern zones just before daybreak, enveloping the entire ArkLaTex in very dry conditions by early afternoon. This combination of elevated winds of sustained speeds of 10 to 20 kts and gusts of up to 30 kts possible with dangerously low relative humidity values in the 25% to 35% range, together with prolonged drought and critically dry fuels has prompted the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for the entire CWA Friday. By Saturday, the trough axis will have pushed well to the east, with remnant northwest flow over the ArkLaTex, and broadly defined ridging taking shape further into the weekend. Northwest flow aloft will begin the weekend, while surface winds become northeasterly. As of this writing, winds on Saturday will be significantly less elevated than those on Friday. While dry conditions will remain, the relative lack of prolonged gusty winds as a factor has motivated holding off at this time on a potential extension of the Red Flag Warning, which may be considered if guidance points to elevated winds continuing into Saturday. Southwest flow aloft will expedite a warming trend, from highs in the 60s on Saturday to 70s on Sunday and 80s making a widespread return by early to middle next week. The continuing proximity of upper level ridging and associated subsidence will inhibit any active weather, with dry and warm conditions expected through to the end of this extended forecast period. /26/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 124 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 For the 15/18Z TAF period, VFR conditions have returned across all of our airspace early this afternoon with a modest cu field around 3.5Kft at most terminals. Moving into this evening and overnight, a strong cold front will begin to overtake the region with gusty N/NW winds impacting all sites throughout the remainder of the TAF period. In addition, some MVFR to low VFR cigs are expected ahead of the front and may linger a bit beyond fropa on Friday morning. Otherwise, expect rough chop and occasional turbulence as winds veer north with fropa and speeds climb to near 20 kts with gusts of 30 kts or higher on Friday. /19/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A powerful dry cold front will arrive in area fire districts overnight into the day Friday, with unseasonably cooler temperatures to follow. The airmass behind the front will be extremely dry, plunging relative humidity values into the 25 to 35 percent range by Friday afternoon. Concurrently, north-northwest winds will maintain sustained speeds of 10 to 25 mph through the day, with gusts of up to 35 mph possible. The passage of this front is not expected to produce any significant wetting rainfall to improve our already critically dry fuels. On top of the prolonged and worsening drought, these conditions merit an areawide Red Flag Warning, in effect through Friday night. /26/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Spotter activation may be needed during the day Friday in the event of wildfire development. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 64 71 50 68 / 0 10 0 0 MLU 65 77 50 70 / 0 10 0 0 DEQ 51 67 42 69 / 20 10 0 0 TXK 59 68 46 68 / 0 10 0 0 ELD 60 73 46 69 / 0 10 0 0 TYR 59 68 48 67 / 20 10 0 0 GGG 59 70 48 68 / 10 10 0 0 LFK 64 75 51 70 / 10 10 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Wind Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ050- 051-059>061-070>073. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073. LA...Wind Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. OK...Wind Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ077. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ077. TX...Wind Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ096- 097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ DISCUSSION...26 AVIATION...19  829 FXUS63 KDTX 151942 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 342 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers move into the area late this afternoon, expanding in coverage and intensity overnight. - A cold front delivers gusty winds (+35 mph) and chillier conditions Friday, with periods of showers. - Frost/freeze conditions are possible Friday night into Saturday morning with temperatures minimizing in the low 30s. - Turning drier over the weekend and through the first half of next week with a gradual warm-up starting Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure exits as rain approaches, with showers now being sampled via KDTX radar over western Lower Michigan. These initial showers will first fill in over the Tri-Cities, before spreading across the rest of Southeast Michigan this evening. This latest bout of rainfall is tied to the downstream effects from the phasing of a progressive northern stream longwave trough and a southern stream low, now opening up over the lower Missouri basin. Meanwhile, the resulting surface low is currently lifting across Illinois, deepening as it tracks toward Lake Michigan while sustaining a broad region of showers under the wider cyclonic influence. Warm/moist advection is underway as a rich theta-e plume gets shoved into the Ohio Valley, ahead of the inbound cold front. Expect a sharp uptick in coverage and rainfall rate after this plume engages the stronger dynamics, once the elevated warm nose makes further inroads into the region. Given the pace and trajectory of this low, timing issues do exist in pairing the more robust forcing with a deeper moisture layer. Hi-Res models still depict large differences in the deformation/FGEN axis of the higher rainfall amounts. It is still plausible for a narrow stripe of 0.75+ inches of QPF to set up somewhere over the forecast area, generally along a southwest to northeast line. The aggregated NBM suite has this corridor bisecting the Tri-Cities and Thumb areas. Timing-wise, the peak of the event should center between the hours of 7 PM and 1 AM. Forecast soundings are not very bullish in developing unstable layers, but still can't completely rule out an isolated rumble of thunder given upstream convective activity. Should also note that shower residence time ought to be higher over The Thumb once the lake effect influence takes root. With the low exiting into Lake Huron around 09Z Friday, rainfall should drop off quickly once the initial cold front works through. This veers winds west-southwesterly through the first half of the day with temperatures holding steady in the mid 50s. Additional showers will be possible Friday afternoon as the secondary cold front sweeps through, marked by a sharp northwesterly wind shift, uptick in wind/gust speeds, and brisk cold advection. Gusts in the 35-45 mph range may arise on Friday. First, with the trailing low- level jet overnight into the morning hours during a period of higher stability, then again during the afternoon/evening once the mixed- layer deepens from the frontal passage. The main area that could see borderline Wind Advisory criteria exists over The Thumb, given the lower friction and northerly flow off Lake Huron. The instability created by the front should also wring out lingering moisture in the form of rain. Any shower development associated with this activity should be rather light and brief. Aggressive post-frontal drying and cooling then yields a clear and crisp night with many locations likely to drop below freezing, more so outside of Metro Detroit. Frost/freeze headlines will likely be needed Friday night into Saturday morning with temperatures minimizing in the low 30s. Drier conditions settle in over the weekend as surface high pressure expandsout of the Plains. Chilly, but less windy, on Saturday with highs about 10F below average, in the low-mid 50s. The surface ridge then centers over Appalachia Saturday night into Sunday, leading to a local gradient wind shift toward the southwest. This helps boost readings back up to seasonal normals (low-mid 60s) by Sunday. Rain- free weather likely persists through the first half of next week while split-flow situates overhead. Expect highs to run a few degrees above normal next week. && .MARINE... Showers increase in coverage and southeast winds strengthen this evening as low pressure approaches from the mid-Mississippi Valley. As the system crosses southern Lake Michigan shortly after midnight, its warm front lifts across Lakes Erie and St. Clair which causes wind direction to veer to southwest. A strong 40 to 50 kt low-level jet passes over this area, supportive of wind gusts to around 30 kt to reach the surface mainly before dawn. The deepening surface low tracks across Lake Huron Friday morning, pushing a strong cold front southward across the region through the rest of the day. Rapid cold advection leads to increasing instability while northerly wind direction offers favorable fetch down the long axis of Lake Huron. This produces a powerful wind field that peaks late Friday afternoon into the evening. Probabilities remain high for gusts to 35 to 40 kt gales and a Gale Warning remains in effect for all of Lake Huron. Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie may see a brief period with gusts to 35 kt, but given the unfavorable fetch, any gales are expected to be brief. Lake effect showers and gusty northerly wind continue through Friday night before a ridge of high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley, shifting wind to southwest Saturday afternoon into Sunday. A tightening pressure gradient offers potential for winds to increase back to gale force across Saginaw Bay and out into the open waters of Lake Huron during the day Sunday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 109 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 AVIATION... Expansive area of MVFR stratus entrenched throughout SE Michigan this afternoon, as moist low level easterly flow holds downstream of an inbound low pressure system. Deepening moisture depth will support an increase in shower coverage this evening, while bringing an accompanying reduction in cloud base to IFR with time through early tonight. Prevailing east/southeast wind this evening shifts to southwesterly with the passage of the low overnight. There remains a small window for a noted increase in wind magnitude off the surface to generate low level wind shear, but expectation remains for these winds to progressively translate into gusty surface conditions /20 to 25 knots/. Gusty westerly wind gradually veering to northwest Friday, with additional pockets of showers possible. Gradual improvement in cigs back into MVFR likely early in the day. Secondary stronger cold front arrives Friday afternoon and early evening, offering a brief increase in gust potential from the northwest, potentially in excess of 30 knots. D21/DTW Convection...Very low probability for an isolated thunderstorm to develop between 22z and 06z tonight. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet through the TAF period. * Low for thunder 22z-06z tonight. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Gale Warning from 1 PM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ361>363- 421-422-441>443-462>464. Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Saturday for LCZ460. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ444. && $$ DISCUSSION...KGK MARINE.......TF AVIATION.....MRYou can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  851 FXUS64 KMOB 151943 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 243 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Strong winds and dry conditions will move over the area Friday afternoon and into Saturday, creating an increased risk of wildfires over the weekend. - Strong northerly winds develop over the marine area Friday night, becoming easterly and lasting into the coming week. Gale force wind gusts are expected, with conditions posing a hazard to small craft. - A High Risk of dangerous rip currents return to area beaches from Saturday night into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Looking at the big picture, for tonight through Sunday night, a deep upper trough passing over northern portions of the Southeast and north will move a strong cold front across the forecast area beginning mid-day Friday and south of area waters by 06z/1am Friday night. A dry airmass over the forecast area (precipitable h20 levels 1.1-1.5" north of the coast, 1.5" up along the coast and south). This will help to limit any rainfall to near coastal and open Gulf Friday afternoon and night ahead of the front. Strong northerly winds are expected behind the front. Winds shift to northeasterly over land areas, easterly over open Gulf waters Saturday night into Sunday as a surface ridge builds south from along the Appalachians. Looking at impacts for land areas, the first is a possible wind advisory for late Friday into Saturday. North to northeasterly winds around 15kt/17mph with frequent gusts of 25-30kts/29-35mph with high values being possible. Areas south of Highway 84 most likely affected. A drier airmass will move in behind the front. Combined with the winds, and Severe Drought conditions, an increase in the risk of wildfires is possible Saturday (more below). For marine impacts, read below. Temperatures are in for a nose-dive behind the front, with high temperatures in the much above seasonal mid to upper 80s Friday dropping into the mid 60s to around 70 for Saturday and Sunday. Low temperatures see the same drop, from low 60s to near 70 tonight to the mid 40s north of Highway 84 to low/mid 50s south of I-10. For Monday on, an upper ridge over the Plains moves over the Southeast and builds. High temperatures increase to back above seasonal norms, especially over and west of the Mississippi/Alabama State line. Low temperatures are slower to rise, with general northeasterly flow and a dry airmass helping with radiational cooling overnight. Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a Low Risk is expected the rest of the week. As strong easterly flow sets up over the weekend, a High Risk of Rip Currents returns Sunday on. /16 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the next 24 hours. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A light, diurnally variable, flow tonight into Friday becomes a strong to very strong northerly Friday night behind a cold front moving across the forecast area Friday. A surface ridge building south along the Appalachians later in the weekend into the coming week will shift winds to easterly, whilst remaining strong, especially over open Gulf waters. With frequent gusts over gale force along with some areas seeing sustained winds close to gales, a Gale Watch is in effect for all waters Friday night into Saturday morning, tapering to just offshore waters into Sunday. A Small Craft is likely to be issued after the Gales goes down, and lasting into the coming week, especially over open Gulf waters, with a tighter gradient creating the strong easterly flow. /16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Strong northerly winds, dry fuels, and Severe Drought over areas well inland from the coast will create an increased risk of wildfires over the forecast area Saturday and possibly into Sunday. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for our Mississippi counties. Regardless, all areas should remain alert to the possibility of wildfires this weekend. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 66 85 55 70 / 0 10 0 0 Pensacola 69 83 57 71 / 0 10 0 0 Destin 70 81 59 71 / 0 10 0 0 Evergreen 62 87 52 69 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 63 87 50 69 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 63 86 51 68 / 0 0 10 0 Crestview 64 86 56 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for GMZ630>636. Gale Watch from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$  829 FXUS63 KDTX 151942 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 342 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers move into the area late this afternoon, expanding in coverage and intensity overnight. - A cold front delivers gusty winds (+35 mph) and chillier conditions Friday, with periods of showers. - Frost/freeze conditions are possible Friday night into Saturday morning with temperatures minimizing in the low 30s. - Turning drier over the weekend and through the first half of next week with a gradual warm-up starting Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure exits as rain approaches, with showers now being sampled via KDTX radar over western Lower Michigan. These initial showers will first fill in over the Tri-Cities, before spreading across the rest of Southeast Michigan this evening. This latest bout of rainfall is tied to the downstream effects from the phasing of a progressive northern stream longwave trough and a southern stream low, now opening up over the lower Missouri basin. Meanwhile, the resulting surface low is currently lifting across Illinois, deepening as it tracks toward Lake Michigan while sustaining a broad region of showers under the wider cyclonic influence. Warm/moist advection is underway as a rich theta-e plume gets shoved into the Ohio Valley, ahead of the inbound cold front. Expect a sharp uptick in coverage and rainfall rate after this plume engages the stronger dynamics, once the elevated warm nose makes further inroads into the region. Given the pace and trajectory of this low, timing issues do exist in pairing the more robust forcing with a deeper moisture layer. Hi-Res models still depict large differences in the deformation/FGEN axis of the higher rainfall amounts. It is still plausible for a narrow stripe of 0.75+ inches of QPF to set up somewhere over the forecast area, generally along a southwest to northeast line. The aggregated NBM suite has this corridor bisecting the Tri-Cities and Thumb areas. Timing-wise, the peak of the event should center between the hours of 7 PM and 1 AM. Forecast soundings are not very bullish in developing unstable layers, but still can't completely rule out an isolated rumble of thunder given upstream convective activity. Should also note that shower residence time ought to be higher over The Thumb once the lake effect influence takes root. With the low exiting into Lake Huron around 09Z Friday, rainfall should drop off quickly once the initial cold front works through. This veers winds west-southwesterly through the first half of the day with temperatures holding steady in the mid 50s. Additional showers will be possible Friday afternoon as the secondary cold front sweeps through, marked by a sharp northwesterly wind shift, uptick in wind/gust speeds, and brisk cold advection. Gusts in the 35-45 mph range may arise on Friday. First, with the trailing low- level jet overnight into the morning hours during a period of higher stability, then again during the afternoon/evening once the mixed- layer deepens from the frontal passage. The main area that could see borderline Wind Advisory criteria exists over The Thumb, given the lower friction and northerly flow off Lake Huron. The instability created by the front should also wring out lingering moisture in the form of rain. Any shower development associated with this activity should be rather light and brief. Aggressive post-frontal drying and cooling then yields a clear and crisp night with many locations likely to drop below freezing, more so outside of Metro Detroit. Frost/freeze headlines will likely be needed Friday night into Saturday morning with temperatures minimizing in the low 30s. Drier conditions settle in over the weekend as surface high pressure expandsout of the Plains. Chilly, but less windy, on Saturday with highs about 10F below average, in the low-mid 50s. The surface ridge then centers over Appalachia Saturday night into Sunday, leading to a local gradient wind shift toward the southwest. This helps boost readings back up to seasonal normals (low-mid 60s) by Sunday. Rain- free weather likely persists through the first half of next week while split-flow situates overhead. Expect highs to run a few degrees above normal next week. && .MARINE... Showers increase in coverage and southeast winds strengthen this evening as low pressure approaches from the mid-Mississippi Valley. As the system crosses southern Lake Michigan shortly after midnight, its warm front lifts across Lakes Erie and St. Clair which causes wind direction to veer to southwest. A strong 40 to 50 kt low-level jet passes over this area, supportive of wind gusts to around 30 kt to reach the surface mainly before dawn. The deepening surface low tracks across Lake Huron Friday morning, pushing a strong cold front southward across the region through the rest of the day. Rapid cold advection leads to increasing instability while northerly wind direction offers favorable fetch down the long axis of Lake Huron. This produces a powerful wind field that peaks late Friday afternoon into the evening. Probabilities remain high for gusts to 35 to 40 kt gales and a Gale Warning remains in effect for all of Lake Huron. Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie may see a brief period with gusts to 35 kt, but given the unfavorable fetch, any gales are expected to be brief. Lake effect showers and gusty northerly wind continue through Friday night before a ridge of high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley, shifting wind to southwest Saturday afternoon into Sunday. A tightening pressure gradient offers potential for winds to increase back to gale force across Saginaw Bay and out into the open waters of Lake Huron during the day Sunday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 109 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 AVIATION... Expansive area of MVFR stratus entrenched throughout SE Michigan this afternoon, as moist low level easterly flow holds downstream of an inbound low pressure system. Deepening moisture depth will support an increase in shower coverage this evening, while bringing an accompanying reduction in cloud base to IFR with time through early tonight. Prevailing east/southeast wind this evening shifts to southwesterly with the passage of the low overnight. There remains a small window for a noted increase in wind magnitude off the surface to generate low level wind shear, but expectation remains for these winds to progressively translate into gusty surface conditions /20 to 25 knots/. Gusty westerly wind gradually veering to northwest Friday, with additional pockets of showers possible. Gradual improvement in cigs back into MVFR likely early in the day. Secondary stronger cold front arrives Friday afternoon and early evening, offering a brief increase in gust potential from the northwest, potentially in excess of 30 knots. D21/DTW Convection...Very low probability for an isolated thunderstorm to develop between 22z and 06z tonight. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet through the TAF period. * Low for thunder 22z-06z tonight. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Gale Warning from 1 PM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ361>363- 421-422-441>443-462>464. Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Saturday for LCZ460. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ444. && $$ DISCUSSION...KGK MARINE.......TF AVIATION.....MRYou can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  851 FXUS64 KMOB 151943 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 243 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Strong winds and dry conditions will move over the area Friday afternoon and into Saturday, creating an increased risk of wildfires over the weekend. - Strong northerly winds develop over the marine area Friday night, becoming easterly and lasting into the coming week. Gale force wind gusts are expected, with conditions posing a hazard to small craft. - A High Risk of dangerous rip currents return to area beaches from Saturday night into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Looking at the big picture, for tonight through Sunday night, a deep upper trough passing over northern portions of the Southeast and north will move a strong cold front across the forecast area beginning mid-day Friday and south of area waters by 06z/1am Friday night. A dry airmass over the forecast area (precipitable h20 levels 1.1-1.5" north of the coast, 1.5" up along the coast and south). This will help to limit any rainfall to near coastal and open Gulf Friday afternoon and night ahead of the front. Strong northerly winds are expected behind the front. Winds shift to northeasterly over land areas, easterly over open Gulf waters Saturday night into Sunday as a surface ridge builds south from along the Appalachians. Looking at impacts for land areas, the first is a possible wind advisory for late Friday into Saturday. North to northeasterly winds around 15kt/17mph with frequent gusts of 25-30kts/29-35mph with high values being possible. Areas south of Highway 84 most likely affected. A drier airmass will move in behind the front. Combined with the winds, and Severe Drought conditions, an increase in the risk of wildfires is possible Saturday (more below). For marine impacts, read below. Temperatures are in for a nose-dive behind the front, with high temperatures in the much above seasonal mid to upper 80s Friday dropping into the mid 60s to around 70 for Saturday and Sunday. Low temperatures see the same drop, from low 60s to near 70 tonight to the mid 40s north of Highway 84 to low/mid 50s south of I-10. For Monday on, an upper ridge over the Plains moves over the Southeast and builds. High temperatures increase to back above seasonal norms, especially over and west of the Mississippi/Alabama State line. Low temperatures are slower to rise, with general northeasterly flow and a dry airmass helping with radiational cooling overnight. Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a Low Risk is expected the rest of the week. As strong easterly flow sets up over the weekend, a High Risk of Rip Currents returns Sunday on. /16 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the next 24 hours. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A light, diurnally variable, flow tonight into Friday becomes a strong to very strong northerly Friday night behind a cold front moving across the forecast area Friday. A surface ridge building south along the Appalachians later in the weekend into the coming week will shift winds to easterly, whilst remaining strong, especially over open Gulf waters. With frequent gusts over gale force along with some areas seeing sustained winds close to gales, a Gale Watch is in effect for all waters Friday night into Saturday morning, tapering to just offshore waters into Sunday. A Small Craft is likely to be issued after the Gales goes down, and lasting into the coming week, especially over open Gulf waters, with a tighter gradient creating the strong easterly flow. /16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Strong northerly winds, dry fuels, and Severe Drought over areas well inland from the coast will create an increased risk of wildfires over the forecast area Saturday and possibly into Sunday. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for our Mississippi counties. Regardless, all areas should remain alert to the possibility of wildfires this weekend. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 66 85 55 70 / 0 10 0 0 Pensacola 69 83 57 71 / 0 10 0 0 Destin 70 81 59 71 / 0 10 0 0 Evergreen 62 87 52 69 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 63 87 50 69 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 63 86 51 68 / 0 0 10 0 Crestview 64 86 56 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for GMZ630>636. Gale Watch from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$  155 FXUS63 KBIS 151946 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 246 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Northwest winds sustained to around 30 mph with peak gusts to 55 mph continue this afternoon. Winds will slowly diminish this evening and overnight from northwest to southeast. - Widespread freezing temperatures expected late tonight into early Friday morning, especially over western locations. - Notably milder temperatures along with dry weather to end the week and start next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Currently, strong S/WV trough moving southeast across the Northern Plains today, with an associated sfc cold front now to our south. Behind the frontal passage earlier, strong northwest winds have developed along with the extensive low level stratus filtering into the state. Peak gusts have been right around 50 mph, and should continue to be gusty for several more hours till diminishing this evening/early Friday morning. Thus wind headlines remain on track. With the mid level wave, isolated/scattered light rain showers moving south/southeast, so will maintain this in the forecast. Best moisture accumulation will be over my east, where a few hundreths will be possible. S/WV troughing to our east tonight with a high amplitude ridge to our west. Strong surface high pressure builds into the western Dakotas later tonight, thus the decrease in winds forecast. In addition, CAA coupled with decreasing clouds and the decrease in winds will see temperatures dropping into the 20s west and north central, and to near freezing south central. Should remain above freezing southeast where winds and clouds linger the longest. Thus, we opted to issue a Freeze Warning for western and much of central North Dakota late tonight through early Friday. South/southwest return flow for Friday, yet the cold start will only see highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s despite a mostly clear sky as well. Fire weather may become an issue southwest Friday and Saturday, but right now looks sub-marginal. Upper level ridge to our west deamplifies into the weekend as it moves east, morphing into a quasi-zonal flow regime across the Northern Plains into next week. This pattern will bring dry weather conditions to the region, along with temperatures at or slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A strong cold front will result in gusty northwesterly winds today, linger into the evening hours. MVFR ceilings, along with the potential for isolated/scattered showers, are also expected for most of the state behind the front. Winds will diminish and ceilings will improve late this evening through the overnight hours from northwest to southeast. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-031>033-035-040>044- 055>062. Freeze Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ Friday for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-031>033- 035-040>044-055>062. Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for NDZ023-025-036-037- 046>048-050-051. && $$ DISCUSSION...NH AVIATION...NH  117 FXUS63 KFGF 151946 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 246 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong winds are expected through tonight across eastern North Dakota and the Red River Valley. - Freezing temperatures are forecast in the Devils Lake Basin tonight. There is a medium to high probability of widespread freezing temperatures Friday night across much of the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...Synopsis... Widespread stratus is present across the area this afternoon, both head of and behind the surface cold front that is moving through the region. Satellite imagery suggests extensive upstream stratus will prevail through much of tonight, save for across the Devils Lake Basin where some late-night clearing is expected. Showers are developing in southern Manitoba and north central ND in cyclonic flow, and are expected to spread south- southeast through this evening, resulting in a high PoP/low QPF scenario as the primary middle- and upper-level shortwave trough axis crosses the region. In the wake of this wave, mean upper- level ridging is forecast to build into the region by this weekend and is forecast to remain in place through much of next week. Low-level warm air advection this weekend will result in above-normal temperatures beginning Saturday and continuing through the middle to latter parts of next week. The spread in ensemble guidance and NBM membership is small for most of this period, with high confidence in highs in the 60s across much of the area from Saturday through next Thursday. Guidance suggests that a weakening shortwave trough and cold front may move through late this weekend, with breezy south-southwest winds ahead of that on Saturday, and breezy northwest winds behind it on Sunday. A mainly dry forecast is also in place from Friday through the middle to late part of next week given the mean ridging, though a low to medium probability exists for flow aloft to turn southwest by the middle of next week, which may eventually predicate low rain chances by then. ...Strong Winds through Tonight... Northwest winds gusting up to 35 to 45 mph this afternoon are forecast to turn northerly and increase further tonight, with gusts of 40 to 50 mph, particularly in the Red River valley. Surface low pressure is centered near Lake of the Woods as of early afternoon, with a trailing cold front southwestward into west central MN. The surface low and cold front are both forecast to continue moving east-southeast across the area by late afternoon. Initial low- and midlevel cold air advection and an increasing surface pressure gradient behind the front is contributing to gusty winds in eastern North Dakota, which may approach advisory criteria from the Devils Lake Basin southward toward Valley City before 00z. However, the initial push of cold air advection is not particularly long-lived, and surface pressure rises are lacking. Both of those aspects will change after 00z when the middle- and upper-level shortwave trough axis passes eastern ND, turning deep-layer flow to a northerly direction, with a secondary and stronger surge of cold air advection concurrent with increasing deep-layer subsidence. The low-level wind fields will also increase with 45-50 kt flow in the 925 to 850 mb layer and cold-air-advection-steepened lapse rates contributing to sufficient mixing and momentum transfer through much of that layer. We also anticipate a 5-7 mb/3 hour surface pressure rise bubble moving southward through eastern ND and far western MN. This scenario is expected to yield advisory-level north-northwest winds in those areas, maximized in the Red River Valley given the orientation of the flow. Point forecast soundings at both Grand Forks and Fargo suggest momentum transfer may be sufficient for 50 kt gusts, but the depth and temporal efficiency of the mixed layer was not sufficient for us to upgrade to a High Wind Warning. Having said that, there is a 30-50% chance of gusts reaching 60 mph in the Red River Valley tonight when the aforementioned ingredients align, particularly in the 02z to 07z time frame. Both time- lagged HRRR and 12z RRFS/REFS guidance support maximum gusts near 50 mph, consistent with some uncertainty in the depth of mixing. There is also around a 50% probability that advisory-level gusts extend further into west central MN, e.g., portions of Otter Tail and Grant Counties. Time-lagged HRRR guidance supports that potential, but with some uncertainty in mixing nocturnally, we have not yet added them into the Wind Advisory. Winds are forecast to rapidly diminish by Friday morning as a surface ridge axis begins to approach the area. ...Freezing Temperatures... We have issued a Freeze Warning for portions of the area centered on the Devils Lake Basin tonight, where ensemble guidance and upstream observations provide high confidence in overnight lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s F. This is supported by expected low-level cold air advection, but may be offset by lingering clouds (stratus) and winds that may not diminish until close to sunset even in those areas. Across the remainder of eastern ND and northwest and west central MN, we believe the cloud cover and winds will tend to inhibit the efficiency of cooling. Taken at face value, the 50th percentile NBM guidance suggests temperatures around 32 in parts of the MN lakes country. In contrast, MOS-based guidance (which is not bias-corrected by recent background trends) favors the temperatures staying above freezing, consistent with the expectation of cloud cover and winds limiting full cooling potential. Medium to high probabilities for freezing temperatures exist Friday night owing to the cool post-frontal air mass and expectation of a clear sky. The official forecast calls for low temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s F, lowest in parts of west central MN, which will be near a surface ridge axis the longest during the night. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A cold front moving through the Red River Valley at midday will continue eastward across northwest and west central MN by 00z. Expect MVFR or low VFR ceilings to prevail over much of the area this afternoon, with temporary fluctuations or scattering of ceilings in the Red River Valley until a more widespread area of low stratus with MVFR ceilings becomes established across the entire area after 00z. There is a low to medium chance of brief IFR ceilings tonight at most terminals. Northwest winds will gust up to around 30 kt along and west of the Red River Valley this afternoon. Winds will turn more northerly and increase after 00z, particularly at KGFK and KFAR, where gusts up to 45 kt are expected tonight, peaking between about 02z and 09z. A period of rain showers is also expected to cross the area this afternoon and evening. We expect decreasing winds and improving ceilings from north to south late tonight and Friday morning. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CDT Friday for NDZ008-016-027-029-030-039-049-052-053. Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for NDZ006-007-014-015-024- 026-028-038-054. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Friday for NDZ006-007-014- 015-054. MN...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CDT Friday for MNZ001>004-007-029. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJS AVIATION...CJS  113 FXUS63 KFSD 151946 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 246 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain will continue to taper off from northwest to southeast through the remainder of the afternoon. - Strong northwest winds have begun to develop this afternoon. Widespread gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected into Friday morning. Gusts around 50 mph are expected across south central South Dakota. - Moderate to high (60% or greater) chances of frost for most of the area Friday night/early Saturday, highest near and east of Interstate 29 with temperatures 32 degrees F or colder. West of I-29 frost may be possible with a 50% chance for temperatures to fall below 35 degrees F. - Dry conditions and warmer temperatures return this weekend into early next week with highs back above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain is ending from northwest to southeast this afternoon as a northern stream upper trough and surface low drag a cold front through the region. At the same time the northern stream upper trough is merging into the southern stream trough responsible for the rain, deepening and strengthening the over all system. Strong winds have begun to develop in response to the tightening SPG and a strong push of CAA. Widespread gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected. The strongest winds will be located over central South Dakota where gusts to 50 mph are possible. A Wind Advisory is in effect for this area until 4 am Friday morning. The strongest winds will move east overnight with the upper trough but should remain under advisory criteria at 35 to 40 mph. Thanks to the mixy winds and lingering clouds overnight lows tonight will remain in the upper 30s to low 40s. Early Friday morning there is a chance for additional light, scattered rain showers as moisture wraps around the surface low located over Minnesota. This combined with a second strong push of CAA will result in the LLJ increasing to 50+ kts over east central South Dakota and southwest Minnesota. An area of wind gusts up to 45 mph may be possible in southwest Minnesota. At this time, confidence in winds meeting advisory level criteria are too low to issue a headline. But this will need to be monitored through Friday morning. Winds gradually taper off through Friday afternoon. Highs for Friday will be below average for this time of year (average is low 60s) in the upper 40s to low 50s. Clouds break up through the afternoon and skies will be clear overnight with nearly calm winds. Radiational cooling will allow lows to fall into the mid to low 30s. Areas along and east of I-29 are likely to see temperatures fall to 30 degrees, therefore have issued a Freeze Watch from late Friday night into Saturday morning. Precautions are recommended for sensitive outdoor plants. Areas to the west of I-29 may have the potential for frost development, but confidence was too low at this time to issue a Frost Advisory. An upper ridge builds into the area for the weekend. Winds turn southerly and WAA will boost our highs back into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Lows will be in the 40s. Dry and warmer than average conditions continue Sunday through the middle part of next week. Highs will warm from the the mid 60s Sunday and Monday into the low 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. Chances for rain return for the second half of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Ceilings and visibilities range from VFR over central South Dakota down to MVFR and IFR along and east of I-29. As a cold front continues to work southeast, clouds will break up and clear. Ceilings and visibility will improve through Friday morning and may be near to VFR by the end of the period. Rain has ended for most of eastern South Dakota. Rain will continue to taper off along and east of I-29 through the remainder of the afternoon and should be east of the CWA around 7 pm. Additional light, scattered showers are possible after midnight as moisture wraps around the surface low to the east over Minnesota. The majority of the showers should remain over eastern South Dakota and southwest Minnesota. Showers will taper off through 16.12Z. Winds behind the front will become northwest and strong. Widespread gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected. Gusty winds continue through the end of the period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for SDZ071. Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for SDZ050-057-063. Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for SDZ052-058-064. MN...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098. IA...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NEZ013-014. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJP AVIATION...AJP  107 FXUS63 KLMK 151945 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 345 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A few strong storms are possible this evening but conditional upon surface heating, and threat will diminish after sunset. * Cold front pushes through early Friday morning, with breezy winds, cold temps, and spotty showers as it passes. * Cool temperatures linger throughout the weekend, bringing a chance for frost to the Bluegrass and low-lying valleys. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ***********Today's Severe Potential************************* Since the last discussion, SPC has expanded the marginal risk to the remainder of the S IN CWA counties, with a slight just clipping Washington, Orange, Dubois, and Scott counties. While the upper- level wind profile and shear is favorable for a wind and low-end tornado threat, this risk is entirely based on the potential of storms to form. At the moment, it does not appear that we have had or will have enough surface heating for these storms to form. However, if clearing occurs across Southern Illinois and Indiana within the next two hours, this threat may become slightly more realistic. This threat should quickly clear out after sunset as we lose the surface-based energy to sustain it. ***********Overnight and Friday's Cold Front******************* Bowling Green has broken their high record for today, although they are likely the only ones. Cloud cover has kept the rest of the CWA in a fog/drizzle/showery environment today, pushing the high temps toward the low 80s instead. Overnight, our minimum temperatures will occur close to sunrise. There should be a northwest to southeast gradient, with temperatures in southern IN in the mid-50s and south central KY in the mid-60s. We expect the cold front to push through in the same direction, with it passing over S IN around 08z. This means that tomorrow's max temps should also occur just after sunrise, with highs near 60 for S IN, the Bowling Green Area, and the Louisville area. Highs are likely to be closer to the upper 60s for the Bluegrass and low 70s for Lake Cumberland area. With this cold front, expect to see a wind switch from southwesterly flow to northwesterly flow. It will be breezy tomorrow, with sustained speeds in the 13-15 kt range and gusts up to 25kts. Winds will persist into the overnight hours. A light line of showers is also likely, which should clear out by tomorrow evening. Tomorrow night's min temperatures will be around the 40 degree mark. **************This weekend's fall weather********************** Saturday should see some seasonable temperatures, with high temperatures in the 50s. Breezy conditions should persist through the day on Saturday, with wind direction shifting to northeasterly throughout the day as as the surface Low pushes off the coast and a surface high sets up over northern Indiana. Overnight Saturday night, winds should slow down. Frost is certainly not out of the question early Sunday morning, but winds are the limiting factors. Temperatures will be in the low to mid-30s across the region for overnight lows. We do warm back up a bit on Sunday, with highs in the mid-60s as the High pressure pushes towards Pennysylvania, where it stagnates over the mid-Appalachians. This will lead to a continues wind shift, to the point where we likely have southerly flow Sunday evening, albeit light flow. Expect chlly overnight lows again, in the 30s. The stagnant high pressure should keep us seasonable for the end of next week, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s. Expect mostly light winds throughout. However, clear skies should be visible for some gorgeous fall sunsets. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issuedat 147 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A stationary front is currently draped over northern KY leading to more cloud cover on the cool side to the north. Overcast skies are beginning to break along with improving ceilings from south to north. Scattered to isolated rain showers (and a few storms) will remain in the TAFs for tonight and into tomorrow. Sites can expected a period of mostly VFR conditions this evening into the overnight ahead of a cold front moving in from the NW. As the boundary pushes into the forecast area overnight tonight into tomorrow morning, a wind shift with 20-25kt winds are expected for all sites. There is a 40-50% chance that wind gust could overachieve >25kts. With ample moisture ahead of the front, rain showers have to potential to form in the morning with the forcing of the boundary. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JPH AVIATION...CAL  140 FXUS63 KMPX 151947 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 247 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy northwest winds tonight, with gusts to 45 mph possible in western and southern MN. - Cooler temperatures continue through Saturday morning when a widespread frost/freeze is expected. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the entire area. - Temperatures turn back to above normal next week with few chances for additional rain, with increased fire weather concerns returning this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rainfall moving across the area is pretty much coming in as forecast, with a broad deformation band of rain to the northwest of a surface low that is near the IA/MO/IL border this afternoon. Rainfall amounts are on track to come in in the 0.75" to 1" range from down around Albert Lea up toward Chippewa Falls/Eau Claire, around 0.5" in the Twin Cities, down to around 0.1" by the time you get to St. Cloud. This rain shield will clear the Eau Claire area between 10pm and midnight, to be replaced by a tight pressure gradient and strong low level CAA. This will allow the winds to kick up, with wind gusts up over 40 mph expected west of I-35 from roughly midnight to noon on Friday before they start to slowly settle down in the afternoon. Besides the winds, forcing from the northern stream shortwave, combined with instability from the differential CAA, will result in a batch of showers moving south through MN around midnight (as seen with the HRRR). After that, it's looking like this may be the last chance for rain we have for the next 7+ days. Friday, high pressure will come out of the Rockies and sink southeast toward the southern Plains. The ridge axis will be centered over the MPX area between 00z and 06z Saturday (7pm Friday to 1am Saturday) and will already be off to our southeast by Saturday morning. This leads to some uncertainty with lows Saturday morning, especially over western and central MN, where return flow and southwest winds will start blowing during the night, with lows likely being achieved near midnight, with temperatures remaining steady or rising through the rest of the night. Still, NBM probability for a low of 32 or less is basically 100% northeast of I- 94 and 50-75% southwest of I-94 (for the core of the Twin Cities metro, the freeze probability drops to 20% thanks to the urban heat island), so we went ahead with a Freeze Watch for the entire area Friday night/Saturday morning. Growing Season Index (GSI) values are currently up around 0.8, which indicates stressed, but still active vegetation. By Thursday next week, the GSI values are forecast to fall below 0.5, indicating that this brief cold push combined with decreasing daylight will be enough to shut down the growing season for 2026. For the rest of the forecast, it's back to ridging and dry Pacific airmasses. One thing we've seen is that models are holding this ridging pattern in place longer, with any sort of breakdown in the pattern not coming until next weekend or early the following week. It will still be cool on Saturday thanks to the cold start, but from Sunday through next week, it will be highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s as our exceptionally warm October weather returns after this brief cool down. The one thing to watch starting Saturday and continuing through next week will be the potential for elevated fire weather conditions. Right now, the day with the lowest dewpoints also has our coolest temperatures, with the warmer temperatures next week coming with higher dewpoints. This all works out to RHs remaining above critical thresholds (25%), but we'll have to keep a close eye on RHs given the potential for some breezy periods to go with this unseasonably mild airmass. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 119 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Light rain continues into this evening with mainly MVFR visibility & ceilings expected. Better chances for IFR conditions exits across southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin. The rain ends from west to east late this afternoon & evening, but MVFR ceilings stick around through most of tomorrow morning. Another round of isolated to scattered rain showers is likely overnight but any minor impacts to visibility will be brief. Gusty winds will be an issue overnight & especially tomorrow morning. Northwest winds around 10 kts this afternoon increase this evening with gusts mainly to 20-25 kts through tonight. Speeds increase overnight into early tomorrow morning & become ore northerly through tomorrow morning. Sustained winds of 20-25 kts are likely with gusts of 30-35 kts. A few gusts to 40 kts are possible, especially across western Minnesota. Winds will remain gusty into the afternoon but speeds decrease to around 20 kts. KMSP...Light rain continues until 7-8 PM with MVFR ceilings & visibility prevailing. Brief periods of IFR are possible this afternoon. Ceilings lift & break up briefly this evening but return to MVFR overnight through Friday morning. Wind speeds pick up this evening but the main impacts begin early tomorrow morning when northerly winds gust to 30-35 kts. Speeds will decrease through the afternoon but still gust to 20-25 kts. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind SW 15G25kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10G20kts. MON...VFR. Wind VRB 5kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago- Dakota-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti- Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod- Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood- Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele- Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright- Yellow Medicine. WI...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk- Rusk-St. Croix. && $$ DISCUSSION...MPG AVIATION...ETA  309 FXAK67 PAJK 151953 AAA AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Juneau AK 1153 AM AKDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .UPDATE...We have upgraded to a High Wind Warning for portions of the southern Panhandle for tonight into Friday. Furthermore, extended the wind advisories into Petersburg and Skagway this morning, as well as issued a new special weather statement for several areas in the northern half of the panhandle. See short term update for more information. Not the best day for flying VFR in SE Alaska. See Aviation Update as well. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE...Further increasing confidence that there will be a strengthening low pressure system move up Chatham Strait area, into the Lynn Canal area, and exit into British Columbia. With this increased confidence comes several changes to the forecast: An upgrade of the wind advisory into a high wind warning for Ketchikan and Metlakatla, two new wind advisories for Skagway and Petersburg, new special weather statements for parts of the northern half of the panhandle, and several new gale warnings for the marine waters. Largest deal of uncertainty is twofold: The strength of the cold front associated with this low pressure system for the Sumner Strait & northern Clarence Strait area, specifically the strength of the wind gusts along the front, and the timing of shifting westerly winds, and the exact track of the low which may bring a fresh round of stronger wind gusts for the Juneau area. For the special weather statement, seeing a fresh injection of stronger dynamics saturating the atmosphere associated with this stronger low, which will translate into another round of heavy rain moving into the central and northern panhandle. This heavy rainfall is largely expected to impact Baranof Island including Sitka before moving up into Juneau as it pushes northward, bringing an additional 1.5 to 2 inches of rain tonight. However, some of the higher rainfall amounts may reach Hoonah, Gustavus, Haines, and Skagway depending largely on the orientation and track of the low as it moves into the area. Juneau is the biggest concern here, as rivers were already expected to be running high around this time frame, and additional rainfall could tip into minor flood stage for flashier creeks such as Jordan Creek and Montana Creek. && .AVIATION UPDATE...Continuing the trends of the previous forecasts, we continue to see generally MVFR with periods of IFR moving through (lower ceilings) as bands of heavier rainfall move across with the passing front the rest of today into tonight. In addition to the lower ceiling and periodic lower visibilities (in rain), low level wind shear is also having impacts with just about all of the TAF sites carrying a LLWS group for ast least the next 6 hours. There will be a bit of a slight dropoff on the stronger winds during the late afternoon (central and northern Panhandle), however another surge of higher winds will move into the southern and cetnral Panhandle tonight into Friday on the east side of a secondary low moving in. Long term prevailing VFR that you can count on for planning purposes is generally not expected through the operational forecast period. 05/Garmon && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 600 AM AKDT Thu Oct 15 2026 SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - The anticipated front has reached SE AK bringing rain and increased winds through Friday. - A Flood Watch is in effect for the southern panhandle with rain rates as high as 0.25 to 0.3 inches per hour possible. - Strong wind gust will continue into Friday morning. Wind advisories are in effect for the central and southern panhandle. SHORT TERM.../ through Saturday / A tropically moisture enhance moisture plum with the current weather front headed north to the Northeast gulf coast. Gusty winds in the 40 to 50 mph range for several communities and observations in know to be windier spots or enhanced locations may have to to 60 mph or higher this morning. the lead feature this morning landfalling in the north, while closer trailing wave with move more over teh central panhandle. Satellite Rainfall estimates morning is suggesting rates about 0.2 inches to 0.30 inches an hour, but may see some higher rate when terrain effects start assisting that. This moisture stream has a tropical connection with former Typhoon moisture being absorbed into the plume and will likely bring 2 to 3.5 inches of rain into the northern panhandle Thursday and 2 to 4 inches for the southern panhandle region. The plume will also raise the lower atmosphere temperature slightly, and any Thursday morning the snow levels around 2500 to 3000 feet are likely to be wiped out by late afternoon as the Snow levels rise closer to 5000 ft. Expect stream to rise int he north this morning as as well as over the south, but with a thirds system likely to push into the southern panhandle better chance for minor issues, so thus the Flood Watch of the southern panhandle area. LONG TERM...The start of the long term looks to remain active with the low pressure continuing to persist. This will allow for clouds and precipitation to continue to impact the area. This low eventually dissipates while a stronger low looks to pass south of the area and high pressure builds in Canada. Behind this low, high pressure is expected to move in to the Gulf behind this stronger low which may allow for us to see a break Sunday evening into Monday morning. Headed into the start of next week, ensemble guidance wants to bring another low into the western Gulf. The main difference between EPS and GEFS guidance is where this low comes from. EPS wants to bring a low up from the south on Monday and have it merge with a low that is expected to persist in the Bering Sea before moving towards the Cook Inlet area Tuesday. This low then tracks into Prince William Sound Tuesday evening into Wednesday. GEFS guidance wants to bring the low from the Bering Sea on Monday and track it across the Alaska Peninsula and Cook Inlet before moving remaining offshore near Prince William Sound. AVIATION.../Through 12z Friday/...Conditions have diminished early this morning as a front has reached the area bringing times of heavy rain and strong winds. A few areas are holding on the VFR conditions, but ceilings are continuing to lower as the front moves across the panhandle. Widespread MVFR ceilings will soon be seen across the area, with ceilings AoB 3000 ft. This front will also drop visibilities to around 4 to 6 SM, with locations seeing visibilities falling to around 2 SM during periods of heavy rain. These lower visibilities have already occurred near the Ketchikan airport as rain rates increased. Along with heavy rain, strong winds and LLWS quickly approached the area with this front. Wind gusts around 30 to 40 kts are likely to continue over the southern panhandle through the TAF period. The central panhandle will also see these strong gusts, lasting into Thursday evening. Similarly LLWS will continue with wind speeds around 35 to 45 kts at 2000 ft. Behind the initial front, a brief break in heavy rainfall may be possible for the southern panhandle before second surge of moisture and winds move into the panhandle early Friday morning. This could allow for a few locations to see a brief period of VFR ceilings before this disturbance move across the area. That being said, most locations are likely to remain MVFR during that time. MARINE... Inside(Inner Channels): Winds have picked up to the 25 to 35 kt range with strongest winds over CLarence strait, Chatham Strait and out Icy Strait and Cross Sound. Bumped CrossSound to Gale force this morning with east gales. The next tailing low to move to the southern panhandle, looks to mover inland near the Northern Prince of Wales island then over south central panhandle to souther Stephen Passage as it falls part. Think that will will be burst of gales friday Morning of the Clarence Strait are, and as teh remain of the filling low heads north, I tried to include a wind push as it moves north, I tried to add to the grid to about the Juneau are. Will be able to fine the winds when they pick up. Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Gale force winds Late Wednesday evening over the gulf waters moving into the coastal regions of the panhandle. 25 to 35 kt winds have pushed into and then out of parts of the inner channels. the old low is West southwest of Kodiak island just south of the Alaska Peninsula. This low is expected slowly weaken then then move towards the by the weekend. Winds over the look to be less that 25 kt as the old low moves east, helping to spread in some more showers to the panhandle of the Later tonight as the front gets closer to the panhandle during the weekend. HYDROLOGY.../Wednesday night through Friday morning/ A strong incoming atmospheric river will move into the panhandle beginning early Thursday morning and continuing through Friday morning. Two distinct frontal features make up a bulk of the heavy rain for the central and southern panhandle: The first during Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon, and the next Thursday evening into Friday morning. Confidence for the precipitation amounts and gusty conditions following into Thursday night has increased, with guidance narrowing in on an area extending from Petersburg and Wrangell down to Ketchikan and Metlakatla. IVT values look to range between 500-750 kg/ms, with more confidence on the area moving into the panhandle leaning towards 750 kg/ms for both waves, with the second wave still appearing to push from the south into the southern panhandle. Ketchikan and Metlakatla continue to be the target of opportunity here, with rain rates possibly exceeding 0.3 inches per hour, and up to 0.25 inches elsewhere. These rates are expected to be sufficient enough for at least minor flooding on small creeks and streams, particularly given the duration of the event. Alongside these heavy rainfall amounts looking to be around 5 year return intervals for the southern panhandle, the increased confidence on elevated winds of 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 40-50 mph associated with the second wave brings the possibility of isolated landslides occurring in areas south of Frederick Sound. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ318. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ322. Wind Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ323-325. Wind Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ326-329. Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for AKZ326>330-332. Wind Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ327-328. High Wind Warning until 7 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ330-332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641-642-652-661-662. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035-053-643-644- 651-663-664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  301 FXUS64 KAMA 151953 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 253 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 150 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Windy conditions continue this afternoon and evening, with gusts up to 50 mph in the northwestern Panhandles. - Low temperatures Friday night are forecast to dip below freezing for many portions of the combined Panhandles. A Freeze Watch has been issued to account for counties most likely to meet or fall below 32 degrees. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 150 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The upper level, cutoff low in Colorado continues its progression eastward as it becomes ingested in the main upper level trough. Winds at the surface have flipped from the north and strong, northerly flow will continue across the southern High Plains until high pressure settles in Saturday morning. Today, the last of the precipitation from our rain event is moving through Collingsworth county and will eventually transition fully into western Oklahoma. Though additional rain has fallen in those areas this morning, no flood products are anticipated due to rain rates being too steady for any further impacts. Surface winds are expected to be stronger today than Friday. Gusts up to 50 mph are likely in the northwest combined Panhandles, while gusts between 35- 45 mph are more likely for the rest of the Panhandles. Temperatures today should only reach the 60s, but a few locations in the southeast TX Panhandle may reach 70 degrees. Tomorrow, strong winds continue with gusts up to 40 mph possible. As cold air becomes reinforced across the area, morning lows will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s. A few locations in Cimarron and Dallam county even have a low chance to reach 32 degrees by Friday morning. By the afternoon, temperatures should cap out in the 50s while sky coverage remains partly cloudy to mostly sunny. With temperatures on the downtrend and wind speeds staying high in the morning, a wind chill will be present across the CWA. Friday morning apparent temperatures may feel as cold as the mid 20s in the north, while temperatures will feel as cold as the 30s for the rest of the Texas Panhandle. Rangel && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 150 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Confidence continues to increase for freezing temperatures Saturday morning. A Freeze Watch has been issues for areas that have at least a 50% chances for temperatures 32 degrees or below. Temperatures may be as low as the mid 20s in the OK Panhandle and northern TX Panhandle. Winds will become much lighter on Saturday with the arrival of our upper level high. Highs Saturday onward will steadily increase and we approach the new week. 80 degree temperatures are currently expected to return by the midweek. Low temperatures should be the coldest on Saturday as well, and lows will eventually recover back into the 50s next week. We are watching the development of a new upper level system that could impact us by Wednesday and Thursday next week. PoPs return for that time frame, but changes are still expected as more details about the incoming system are realized. Rangel && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Ceilings are clearing out at all sites and VFR conditions will eventually settle in later this afternoon. Strong winds continue at all sites as well, with gusts potentially reaching up to 45 kts. Later tonight, VFR conditions should prevail at all sites; however, they are expected to be impacted by low level wind shear. Surface winds will decrease overnight as a result, but wind speeds will kick up again once the sun rises Friday morning. Rangel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-006. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for TXZ001>014-016>018-317. OK...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for OKZ001>003. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...55  457 FXUS63 KDMX 151957 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 257 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers gradually end southwest to northeast this evening though additional wrap-around showers are possible in the north and east overnight into Friday morning. - Becoming windy and much cooler tonight into Friday. Winds out of the northwest gusting to at least 35-45 mph at times, with some higher gusts possible in the north/northwest Friday morning. - A Freeze Watch was issued for much of the area Saturday morning with lows in the low the upper 20s to low 30s. - Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions expected this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Near widespread rain this morning has begun to decrease in coverage this afternoon and this trend is expected to gradually continue southwest to northeast through the rest of the afternoon into evening. Temperatures today have been held down by the clouds and rain with locations north in the upper 40s to low 50s, central in the 50s, and further south to southeast where winds still remain out of the south to southeast, in the 60s to even low 70s. The strong upper trough remains to our west this afternoon but will continue to deepen as it swings through the central U.S. tonight through Friday. The pressure gradient will continue to strengthen tonight and strong cold air advection will be brought into the area tonight into Friday morning leading to increasing winds and decreasing temperatures. Temperatures tonight will fall into the upper 30s to 40s but will be kept from falling off too much with more minimal clearing expected between clouds starting to depart following the rain this evening and additional cloud cover moving in from the north as the system wraps around into Friday morning. Additional rain showers are also expected as we get the wrap-around precipitation overnight into Friday morning, mainly in the north and east. Along with the cloudy, and in some cases light rain, tonight into Friday will generally not be pleasant as the strong winds out of the northwest continue to increase. These winds look to peak on Friday morning sustained around 20-30 mph with gusts of 35-40 mph common, and some gusts near to in excess of 45 mph, especially in northern to northwestern Iowa. Cloud cover may help limit the amount of mixing and thus the strongest wind gusts, but forecast soundings do reveal many locations in northwest Iowa with top of the mixed- layer winds (which is only like 15-25kft early Friday) in the 40-50 knot range so certainly don't want to discount the potential for some 45-55 mph gusts and thus a wind headline. Overall wind gusts look to remain largely below wind advisory criteria and at this time plan to address with a SPS. Feel-like temperatures to start the day Friday will be in the 30s and only warming into the 40s to low 50s as highs themselves down't make it much past the low to mid 50s. Some patchy fog may also be possible tonight into Friday morning especially south or southeast where any clearing may linger longest. Winds then gradually decrease through the afternoon to evening Friday northwest to southeast but temperatures remain chilly for any Friday evening activities. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Surface high pressure gradually moves into the region Friday night into Saturday morning allowing winds to drop off, skies to clear, and good radiational cooling. Temperatures by Saturday morning fall into the upper 20s to low 30s. A Freeze Watch has been issued for Saturday morning to account for these low temperatures so make plans now to protect any sensitive vegetation! The pressure gradient tightens again Saturday behind the departing high pressure leading to breezy winds, especially north, Saturday into Sunday. Conditions otherwise remain dry with the surface high and an upper ridge in place. Temperatures begin to rebound later Saturday into Sunday as southwest flow returns translating to gradually increasing highs this weekend into early next week. Highs in the 50s Saturday become 60s Sunday-Monday and 70s again by Tuesday. There are a few hints of a small system near the region around Monday night but our forecast remains dry until mid to later next week when there is a bit more consensus for returning precipitation chances though details will continue to be refined in the coming days. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 LIFR to MVFR conditions are ongoing across the area early this afternoon with low stratus and rain causing visibilities to drop into IFR at times. Have adjusted timing and impacts of rain with the latest guidance, though additional adjustments may still be needed depending on how fast the rain is able to taper off this evening. Only a small break is expected this evening before wrap-around rain moves through portions of northern to northeastern/eastern Iowa overnight into Friday morning. Confidence in timing/impacts remains lower than 30% at KMCW/KALO so no precipitation mentions were included for this second round of rain. Clouds will lift some this evening before falling again overnight. Winds will turn gusty from later this afternoon through Friday morning with gusts of up to around 25-35 knots. Improvement in the winds and ceilings are expected on Friday afternoon. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075- 081>085-092>096. && Frost is likely early Saturday with morning lows in the low to mid 30s. $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...05  512 FXUS63 KDLH 151958 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 258 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers continue into this evening and overnight, the most over northwest Wisconsin. - Mild and dry conditions to follow rain on Friday. Near critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday. - Next low chance for precipitation not until late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 This afternoon, rain showers will continue to spread across the Northland as a surface low cuts across Wisconsin into the Great Lakes. This main band of rain currently moving through far northeastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin will continue to move east throughout this evening and overnight, with the heaviest rainfall falling across northwest Wisconsin. Models are still having trouble with a cold bias overnight, so brought up minimum temperatures for tonight due to cloud cover, as done in previous forecasts. Wrap around showers will develop and more off-and-on rain showers are expected across much of the area in the late night and early morning Friday. Lake enhanced/effect rain showers will continue through most of Friday morning across portions of the South Shore as cold air moves over the relatively warm waters of Lake Superior. A few snowflakes could mix in across far northern Minnesota during the overnight hours, but no accumulations and no impacts are expected. Strong north winds will surge behind the departing boundary, gusting between 25 and 35 mph inland and up to 45 mph near Lake Superior, before conditions subside and skies clear late Friday afternoon. High pressure will build across the Upper Midwest Friday night into Saturday, bringing a return of sunny skies and dry air. RHs increased significantly Saturday with the initial population of forecast data, so decreased them again to better account for dry air aloft that will likely mix down to the surface that day. No fire headlines are anticipated at this time, but fire weather conditions will still be near critical with the combined lower RH of 25 to 30 percent and gusty southwest winds of 20-30 mph expected that day. Under this system, temperatures will increase back toward sixty degrees through the weekend into next week. On Sunday, an upper-level shortwave will pass north of the international border, dragging a mostly dry cold front through our region with only scattered passing clouds. Winds will follow as this system passes with gusts 20-30 mph in northwest Wisconsin. RH values between 30 and 40% will lead to elevated fire weather conditions with higher winds, but not anticipating any fire headlines needed. Behind this boundary, upper-level ridging will become the dominant pattern driver across the Great Lakes. This synoptic regime will maintain dry, mostly clear, and unseasonably mild weather across our area through Monday, with afternoon temperatures warming well into the sixties. Dry and quiet weather will persist into Tuesday as the upper ridge remains centered over the region, keeping temperatures mild. By Wednesday, a weak passing upper disturbance will bring an increase in cloud cover along with a slight chance of afternoon rain showers. However, any precipitation will be light and widely scattered, with dry conditions still favored overall at this point. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain showers continue. Showers will be coming to an end at BRD shortly, with HIB not far behind. Periodic reductions in conditions will continue for DLH and HYR as rain continues for the afternoon and into tonight. Overall, ceilings will continue to remain MVFR with occasional IFR with rainfall. Behind this area of main precipitation, another round of more scattered showers is expected with the wrap around of the low pressure system in to early tomorrow morning. This will be accompanied by increasing northwesterly to northerly winds, with gusts up to 30 kts expected in the early morning into the early afternoon. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A low pressure system tracking into the Great Lakes will bring hazardous marine conditions to western Lake Superior. A Gale Warning is in effect from 4 AM to 1 PM CDT Friday for all nearshore zones and the outer Apostle Islands. North winds of 20 to 30 kt with gales to 40 to 45 kt will drive waves to 6 to 9 ft along the South Shore, 8 to 11 ft across the outer Apostle Islands with occasional waves to 14 ft, and 3 to 6 ft on the North Shore. Winds and waves will subside Friday afternoon and evening as high pressure approaches. Southwest winds will ramp up again on Saturday with gusts to 25 to 30 kt. Gales are possible as well in areas of the near shore waters, and will be more narrowed down in the next couple days. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Widespread rainfall across the Northland continues through this evening and tonight. Strong north winds gusting to 25 to 35 mph will arrive Friday morning, but lingering moisture from the exiting system will keep relative humidity values above 35%. On Saturday, high pressure will lead to dry air aloft which will mix down to the surface. Minimum relative humidity will drop to between 25 and 30 percent Saturday afternoon with southwest winds gusting to 20 to 30 mph, producing near critical fire weather conditions. These windy conditions will linger into Sunday, but RH will increase as well so there will be less concern for fire weather. Going into the rest of the weekend and next week, mild and generally dry weather will persist, keeping humidity somewhat lower with lighter winds until low shower chances return on Wednesday. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 AM to 1 PM CDT Friday for LSZ121-140>148- 150. && $$ DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...KML MARINE...KML FIRE WEATHER...KML