901 FXUS62 KTAE 151626 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1226 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1223 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Patchy dense fog is possible from the early to mid-morning in the Suwanee Valley, Flint River Valley, and the FL Panhandle today. Another round of fog is likely again on Friday morning. - A strong cold frontal passage on Friday night will lead to gusty winds this weekend to 35 mph over land and 40 knots over coastal waters that may impact hurricane recovery efforts, including compromised trees leading to power outages, drones, improperly secured roof tarps, loose outdoor items, and hazardous boating. - Above normal temperatures with highs in the mid-80s to near 90 through Friday, turning sharply cooler this weekend with highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s. Little to no chance for rain expected. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High pressure at the surface and aloft will gradually breakdown by Friday as a cold front approaches. The pattern will remain favorable for patchy dense fog this morning and Friday morning across portions of the region. Highs will be above normal in the mid-80s to around 90 through Friday with some humidity in the air as well. Cannot rule out a brief shower Friday or Friday night mainly closer to the coast. A strong but dry cold frontal passage is remains on tap Friday night, with a much cooler and drier air mass this weekend. Breezy conditions in the wake of the front may impact outdoor events and hurricane recovery efforts this weekend. Wind gusts up to 35 mph over land and 40 knots over the coastal waters are a good bet, especially on Saturday, with winds remaining elevated into early next week. Deep layer ridging over the region early next week should maintain dry weather with warming temperatures. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Prevailing VFR conds thru much of the period with lgt/vrb winds and some fair-wx aftn cumulus. Some patchy fog attempts to develop invof ECP/VLD early tmrw morning, so TEMPO groups are in place to acct. && .MARINE... Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Tranquil boating conditions expected into Friday with daily sea breezes. On Friday night, a cold front will blast across the waters, ushering in a sharp increase in fresh to strong northerly breezes with gale-force wind gusts. Winds are expected to remain elevated into next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Fair dispersion across most of the region today, except pockets of low dispersion through this afternoon in Southwest GA. On Friday, high dispersion chances increase ahead of a cold front. Cannot rule out a brief shower closer to the coast on Friday or on Friday night, otherwise dry conditions with minRH percentage values in the mid-30s to low 40s today and Friday. Light transport winds of 5 to 10 mph generally out of the east can be expected today, then clocking around to the west and increasing on Friday ahead of the cold front. A strong cold frontal passage is expected Friday night, with breezy conditions to following for this weekend. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to around 90 through Friday, the decreasing to the 70s this weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 With the recent rainfall, several rivers are observed/forecast in action stage. The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce may eventually go into minor flood, but confidence remains on the lower side for now. No additional rainfall or flooding is expected over the upcoming week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 89 67 88 63 / 0 0 0 10 Panama City 86 67 85 61 / 0 0 10 10 Dothan 88 64 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 89 64 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 89 66 88 63 / 0 0 0 10 Cross City 88 69 88 68 / 0 0 20 30 Apalachicola 83 70 83 65 / 0 0 10 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LF LONG TERM....LF AVIATION...IG3 MARINE...LF FIRE WEATHER...LF HYDROLOGY...LF  936 FXUS65 KGJT 151628 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1028 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier weather is expected today onward, with gradual warming to seasonable temperatures this weekend. - Gusty winds are expected in the western portions of our CWA, with speeds ranging between 30 and 35 mph. - Sub-freezing nighttime temperatures are forecast across northwest Colorado and other mountain valley areas Thursday and Friday night. Freeze Warnings are in effect for those time periods. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1007 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 TODAY: The low pressure system that has been situated over the region has since moved out over the eastern plains. Because of this, generally dry and mild conditions are on tap for the better half of the day. Additionally, today will be another day of below normal temperatures, before warming up to more seasonable temperatures come the weekend. Periodic gusty winds are possible in the westernmost part of our CWA today as the low exits the region. Afternoon gusts will likely fall within the 30-35 mph range. Clearing skies tonight and this much colder airmass in place will promote effective radiational cooling and below freezing temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning. Conditions will be most favorable across northwest Colorado and into some of the higher elevation valleys in the San Juan and Central Colorado River Basins. Hence, the previous Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning for those areas. Widespread temperatures of 25-30F are expected, with values dropping as low as 20F in favored spots. If you have sensitive vegetation or outdoor plumbing, now is a good time to take necessary precautions to protect them. FRIDAY + THE WEEKEND: By Friday, high pressure will begin to nose in from the west, with an area of stationary low pressure situated over SoCal. This will create a Rex Block for the West, while deep troughing dominates the eastern CONUS. This setup will keep conditions fairly stagnant for the coming weekend, with generally light cloud cover and minimal precipitation chances. Overnight lows Friday night into Saturday will warm from the previous night, but will still be below freezing in some valley locations. Therefore, another Freeze Warning has been issued for the same locations as Thursday for the same time period. Models are hinting at some isolated showers over the San Juans/Four Corners area come Sunday afternoon as the low pressure begins to exit the Rex Block pattern. Although, there are still some discrepancies with timing and location so details are vague at the moment. Lastly, the next chance for active weather across eastern Utah and western Colorado is not expected until early to mid-next week. Models remain in poor agreement over most details regarding this next system, so stay tuned. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 501 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Isolated showers are expected for the next few hours. Low stratus resulting in LIFR-MVFR is possible at several sites through the morning. The stratus should lift and scattered out by the afternoon. Skies clear out by the evening although some clouds could linger for a few spots. In general winds will be out of the northeast and east today. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM MDT Friday for COZ001-002-005-008-023. Freeze Warning from midnight Friday night to 10 AM MDT Saturday for COZ001-002-005-008-023. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BS AVIATION...RJ/TGJT  936 FXUS65 KGJT 151628 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1028 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier weather is expected today onward, with gradual warming to seasonable temperatures this weekend. - Gusty winds are expected in the western portions of our CWA, with speeds ranging between 30 and 35 mph. - Sub-freezing nighttime temperatures are forecast across northwest Colorado and other mountain valley areas Thursday and Friday night. Freeze Warnings are in effect for those time periods. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1007 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 TODAY: The low pressure system that has been situated over the region has since moved out over the eastern plains. Because of this, generally dry and mild conditions are on tap for the better half of the day. Additionally, today will be another day of below normal temperatures, before warming up to more seasonable temperatures come the weekend. Periodic gusty winds are possible in the westernmost part of our CWA today as the low exits the region. Afternoon gusts will likely fall within the 30-35 mph range. Clearing skies tonight and this much colder airmass in place will promote effective radiational cooling and below freezing temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning. Conditions will be most favorable across northwest Colorado and into some of the higher elevation valleys in the San Juan and Central Colorado River Basins. Hence, the previous Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning for those areas. Widespread temperatures of 25-30F are expected, with values dropping as low as 20F in favored spots. If you have sensitive vegetation or outdoor plumbing, now is a good time to take necessary precautions to protect them. FRIDAY + THE WEEKEND: By Friday, high pressure will begin to nose in from the west, with an area of stationary low pressure situated over SoCal. This will create a Rex Block for the West, while deep troughing dominates the eastern CONUS. This setup will keep conditions fairly stagnant for the coming weekend, with generally light cloud cover and minimal precipitation chances. Overnight lows Friday night into Saturday will warm from the previous night, but will still be below freezing in some valley locations. Therefore, another Freeze Warning has been issued for the same locations as Thursday for the same time period. Models are hinting at some isolated showers over the San Juans/Four Corners area come Sunday afternoon as the low pressure begins to exit the Rex Block pattern. Although, there are still some discrepancies with timing and location so details are vague at the moment. Lastly, the next chance for active weather across eastern Utah and western Colorado is not expected until early to mid-next week. Models remain in poor agreement over most details regarding this next system, so stay tuned. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 501 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Isolated showers are expected for the next few hours. Low stratus resulting in LIFR-MVFR is possible at several sites through the morning. The stratus should lift and scattered out by the afternoon. Skies clear out by the evening although some clouds could linger for a few spots. In general winds will be out of the northeast and east today. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM MDT Friday for COZ001-002-005-008-023. Freeze Warning from midnight Friday night to 10 AM MDT Saturday for COZ001-002-005-008-023. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BS AVIATION...RJ/TGJT  421 FXUS63 KSGF 151642 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1142 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch is in effect through 4 PM as additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms move through the area. A localized risk for heavy rainfall and isolated strong to severe storms will accompany this system. - Cooler temperatures this weekend with highs in the 50s to 60s. Expect gusty northerly winds up to 30-35 mph beginning Thursday evening and lasting through Friday evening. - Increasing confidence in patchy frost, and perhaps a freeze, Saturday and Sunday mornings as lows dip into the 30s. The highest confidence is on Sunday morning across portions of the eastern Ozarks. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The main feature of note in the region is a rapidly decaying thunderstorms complex over northeast Oklahoma as evidenced by warming cloud tops, the main line separating from the trailing stratiform region, and an overall sloppier presentation of the leading edge. Despite RAP analysis depicting ~1000 J.kg MUCAPE with 40-50 kts of deep-layer shear ahead of the complex, it appears to be straying too far from large-scale ascent associated with the mid-and upper-level low lagging behind over Colorado and the Rocky Mountain front range. The HRRR has really struggled to initialize this complex each run. The 03Z RRFS, on the other hand, handled its presentation and evolution well. It has the complex completely dissipating by the time it reaches southwest Missouri. Given current radar trends, this seems the most likely scenario. Otherwise, the mesolow associated with the complex has initiated low-level warm air advection across the Ozarks, leading to a northward advancement of a previously stationary boundary. This is leading to scattered light showers across the area, which are expected to lift north with the front through the early morning. Flood Watch in effect through 4 PM: Another complex of storms is currently over the Red River Valley as another shortwave impulse interacts with the frontal boundary over the area. This complex is expected to follow the same progression as the first, bringing mostly remnant showers and thunderstorms to our area late this morning. The Flood Watch remains in effect northwest of I-44 until 4 PM this afternoon to account for these repeated rounds of showers and storms. However, with a trend more towards remnant stratiform, any flooding should remain quite localized, sticking to previously saturated areas that see some of the heavier rain today. If trends continue to depict lighter rainfall, the Flood Watch may be canceled early. That said, much of the area should see at least some light rain today (70-99% chance). The only areas that may remain dry is confined to Oregon and surrounding counties (50-80% chance to remain dry). Low (<5% chance) for a stray strong to severe storm today: With either of the two complexes this morning, there is still a low-end chance for a stray strong to severe thunderstorm, though chances seem quite low given current trends and very meager low- and mid-level lapse rates. Despite no official SPC Outlook for us this afternoon, there is still a low (<5% chance) for a stray strong to severe thunderstorm, especially if the thunderstorm complexes and associated stratiform rain/clouds sufficiently break apart this morning. The 00Z runs of the HREF/REFS ensemble and RAP deterministic do suggest lingering instability of around 1000 J/kg beneath 30-40 kts of deep-layer shear. The main hindrance is synoptic support remaining to our northeast in the Ohio River Valley, and to the southwest in the Red River Valley. Additionally, forecast soundings show a slight capping inversion at around 800 mb, which may limit over development and strength of potential afternoon storms. That said, continue to expect scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon (20-50% chance). Any stronger storm that can develop would be capable of damaging wind gusts up to 50-60 mph. Strong cold front moves through this evening: The main cold front is forecast to quickly move through from west to east between 5 PM and midnight this evening. With the passage, winds will sharply shift to northwesterly, increasing to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25-30 mph. Additionally, due to the remnant meager instability ahead of the front (but slight capping aloft), a thin line of gusty low-topped showers may be associated with the frontal passage (50-80% chance). These could bring gusts briefly up to 30-40 mph. The cold front will usher in much cooler air, with lows tonight in the 40s, and highs in the lower to middle 50s Friday. Given remnant clouds and strong cold air advection from gusty winds up to 30-35 mph, some areas may even struggle to reach 50 F on Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Patchy frost, and perhaps a freeze, possible this weekend: As the cold front dives through the Gulf, a rather abnormal high pressure system (~99.5th percentile for this time of year) will move through our region over the course of the weekend. This will keep highs cooler (well actually quite seasonable) in the 60s Saturday and Sunday. With calmer winds and clear skies beneath the high, though, lows will be colder, dropping into the 30s. This will bring a frost potential both Saturday and Sunday mornings, but especially Sunday morning when winds are forecast to be calmest, and where the eastern Ozarks are forecast to range from 30-34 F. Current Frost probabilities (using <35 F as a proxy) are 15-40% along and north of I-44, and in the eastern Ozarks, on Saturday morning. Then, a 50-95% chance east of Highway 5 on Sunday morning. Current Freeze probabilities (<32 F) are only pockets of 5-10% Saturday morning (mainly in valleys). Then, a 20-50% chance in the eastern Ozarks Sunday morning. For some context, the average first frost date for the eastern Ozarks ranges from Oct. 10-15, while the average first freeze data ranges from Oct. 17-22. So while we have had quite warm temperatures September and the first half of October, the first frost/freeze is actually coming around right on time in terms of climatology. Temperatures quickly rebound to above normal into next week: Those fall-like temperatures will not last long, though, as global ensembles are in pretty good agreement of a ridge amplifying over the region in response to a deep low digging into the western CONUS. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the 70s on Monday, reaching around 80 F by Wednesday. CPC agrees with the current forecast, giving us a 70-80% chance of above normal temperatures from October 20-24. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1145 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A system continues to support scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms across the area through tonight. Periods of MVFR to IFR flight conditions accompany this activity, with reduced visibilities around 4 to 6 miles and ceilings around 900 to 2500 feet at times. Widespread reduced ceilings along a frontal passage late this afternoon and evening. Winds will turn from southwest this afternoon to west-northwest with the front. Wind gusts around 20 to 30 knots persist behind the frontal passage through Friday. A break in the clouds Friday morning before additional low-level clouds advect into the area Friday afternoon. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Price LONG TERM...Price AVIATION...Perez  189 FXUS65 KPSR 151659 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 955 AM MST Thu Oct 15 2026 .UPDATE... Updated Aviation && .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather is expected over the next couple of days with temperatures warming, albeit remaining near to slightly below normal. - Locally windy conditions will impact the western deserts today before spreading across the rest of southe-central Arizona Friday and Saturday. - Wind advisories have been posted for portions of south-central Arizona through the Lower Colorado River Valley on Friday with wind gusts in excess of 40 miles per hour. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The low pressure system that brought multiple rounds of showers and below normal temperatures earlier this week is now currently centered over Colorado, and continues to move northeastwards. Meanwhile, to the west, high pressure is beginning to build, bringing clear skies and H5 heights forecasted to reach between 582- 585 dam today. This will swing afternoon high temperatures up to 10 degrees higher than yesterday, expect highs in the mid to upper 80s across the lower deserts, with a low chance (10-20%) of Phoenix reaching 90 degrees. These temperatures, while higher than earlier this week, are still right around normal for mid October. Low temperatures on the other hand will lag behind with today's low expected to remain below normal in the mid to upper 50s. By Friday morning the lows will respond to the building high pressure, with forecasted lows in the upper 60 to low 70s, or near 5 degrees above normal. The main weather concern will be increasing winds starting today and lasting into the weekend as a pressure gradient strengthens as the high pressure builds to the to the region's north. In addition to the building high, a cut off low will begin to form late tonight to the region's SW over the Norther Baja peninsula. The strongest breezes during the day will be between 25-35 mph and focused across northern AZ and across portions of southeast CA, including the lower Colorado River Valley. By late tonight winds across theses areas will begin to increase to between 35-45 mph, in response a Wind Advisory will begin and last through late Friday morning. By early Friday morning the gradient winds will become stronger and the orientation will shift more E-W, therefore expanding the Wind Advisory to include, southeast Arizona into southern Gila County and through Pinal, southern Maricopa, and Yuma Counties. These areas will also be the best corridor for strong winds, where gusts near 40 mph winds can be expected with the peak winds late Friday morning potentially reaching near 50-55 mph. During peak gusts these same areas will be prone to blowing dust, especially in Pinal County.Additionally, while not included in the Wind Advisories, areas just north of the advised areas can still expect winds between 25-35 mph Friday and into Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Winds will continue to be the main weather concern throughout Saturday morning with gusts between 30-35 in southern and central Arizona, but should remain below advisory level winds. However, another round of advisory level winds are expect in Yuma County and southern La Paz County Saturday morning, but currently allowing the earlier advisory to expire before reissuing to avoid confusion. Aside from the wind concern, guidance is suggesting some lower end shower potential over the weekend. The placement of the cut-off low to our southwest starting Friday is expected to advect a decent mid and upper level moisture into the area. Some high-based light showers may become possible across southern Arizona as early as Friday evening with best chances Saturday afternoon as the cut-off lowweakens and migrates over the region. Unfortunately, little if any measurable rainfall is expected, as most locations will struggle to get anything more than a trace to a few hundredths of an inch. The good news though will be around a 5F-6F decrease in afternoon highs on Saturday, so expect highs in the low 80s across the lower deserts. By early next week, weak upper level riding will effect the region, resuming near normal temperatures. Looking out even further, ensemble guidance is hinting at another deep Pacific trough moving into the Western U.S. early next week and potentially reaching our region during the middle part of next week. This next weather system could bring more rain chances and another cool down during the latter half of next week. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1655Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Increasingly gusty winds and lofted dust will be the main weather impacts through Friday afternoon under clear skies. Confidence is good that winds will obtain a NE trajectory through the afternoon with gusts near 20kt. Confidence is lower with respect to gustiness after sunset as some areas will partially decouple and lose gusts, while other aerodromes maintain some measure of gustiness through the overnight. As a result, LLWS criteria may only become localized and brief in nature. Confidence is very good that increased gusts will materialize Friday mid morning with the strongest 30-35kt gusts likely in a 16-20Z time frame. Given uncertainties in recent land use, sfc BLDU may become a local issue with some potential for a period of MVFR visibilities. Regardless, lofted dust should become a more significant impact throughout the entire daylight period Friday. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Gusty winds will be the primary weather impact through Friday afternoon under mostly clear skies. North winds with gusts 20-30kt will be common through the overnight with some potential for partial decoupling and temporary loss of gustiness after sunset. Confidence is good that winds will back to an E/NE direction late Friday morning with gusts maintaining 20-30kt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air will persist over the region over the next couple of days with mostly clear skies and lowering humidities. MinRHs will be between 15-25% across the western districts and 20-35% for the eastern districts. Northerly breezy winds will affect southeast CA and southwest AZ today before increasing to around advisory level late tonight and into Friday. The eastern districts will keep overall light winds for most of today before windy conditions settle in early Friday morning. Easterly wind gusts as high as 40-50 mph are expected Friday. Some moisture return Friday into Saturday may bring low- end rain chances, but wetting rains chances should remain below 10%. MinRH's are expected to then increase to between 25-35% areawide by Sunday. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Wind Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 11 AM MST Saturday for AZZ552- 553-555-558-560>562. Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM MST Friday for AZZ530. Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 3 PM MST Friday for AZZ531-532-536- 538-539-554-559. CA...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM PDT Friday for CAZ564-565-569-570. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ryan LONG TERM...Ryan/Kuhlman AVIATION...18 FIRE WEATHER...Ryan/Benedict