999 FXUS66 KMTR 151522 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 822 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Above normal temperatures continue into the weekend before a cooling trend begins Sunday into next week - Near critical fire weather conditions due to moderate flow and very dry conditions across the higher elevations Thursday and Friday - Potential for light rain and breezy onshore winds early to mid next week && .UPDATE... Issued at 821 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 No update to the forecast necessary this morning. A Fire Weather Watch was issued overnight for the North Bay interior mountains where very dry and windy conditions tonight through Friday morning will promote rapid spread of any fire ignitions. Winds at the highest spots are already sustained at 30+ MPH with little to no overnight relative humidity recovery last night. RH values this morning are generally in the 20-30% range, and expected to be in the teens by later today. The decision on whether to upgrade to a Red Flag Warning will be made this afternoon with the scheduled forecast update. There are pockets of moderate HeatRisk this afternoon with the warming temperatures, mainly in the North Bay and East Bay. More widespread HeatRisk is in store for Friday, including many coastal areas as offshore flow continues to work against the marine layer. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 (Tonight through Friday) Near critical fire weather conditions continue across the higher elevations, particularly the North Bay Interior Mountains, through Friday. A positively tilted upper level ridge remains over Oregon and Northern/Central California while a cut-off low lingers over Southern California. This setup promotes light to moderate offshore winds across the region with the potential for more moderate to gusty offshore winds across the higher elevations. Model guidance keeps gusts across the elevated terrain peaking between 20 to 30 mph with locally stronger gusts possible across the highest peaks (e.g. Mt. St. Helena). The GFS and HRRR are both in agreement that the SFO- WMC gradient will peak around -9 mb Thursday morning and -10 mb Thursday night into Friday. The NAM continues to be an outlier and suggests the gradient could peak around -14 mb but looking closer into their forecast wind gusts still keeps gusts in a similar, but slightly stronger range, of 25 to 35 mph. Very dry conditions are expected across the higher elevations during both the daytime and overnight hours. Much of the region will see daytime RH in the 10s to 20s with poor to very poor overnight recoveries with the worst recoveries across the higher elevations. Given the very dry conditions and potential for offshore winds, any spark has the potential to start a fire. Remember, one less spark one less wildfire. Warmer temperatures continue Thursday and Friday with highs in the 80s to low 90s on Thursday and upper 80s to 90s on Friday. Patchy Moderate HeatRisk is expected on Thursday but becomes more widespread across urban areas on Friday. If you are outdoors during peak heating, make sure you are drinking plenty of water and taking frequent breaks in the shade. The marine layer remains mixed out through the short term due to the presence of the ridge so expect && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday) Offshore winds decrease by Friday afternoon/evening as upper level ridging weakens and broad troughing returns to the region. High temperatures Saturday will still be warm in the 80s to low 90s but cooler temperatures return Sunday into next week. By Sunday, broad troughing returns to the region with temperatures cooling into the 70s to low 80s. Fall weather returns in force next week as we get our first potential rainmaker of the season. This low pressure system looks to originate from the Gulf of Alaska and will bring much cooler, moister air into the region as the surface low weakens and moves into California next week. Highs will be seasonal to below normal in the 60s to low 70s across the interior and upper 50s to low 60s along the coast. Rain chances increase Tuesday through late week with wetting rains (>0.10") likely across the Central Coast and potentially Santa Cruz County/the South Bay. Light rain is possible across the rest of the Bay Area but does not look to meet wetting rain criteria at this time. Guidance is showing a low (<10%) chance of thunderstorms next week so that will be something to keep an eye on as this event gets closer in time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 959 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Generally VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period, with some high resolution models depicting patchy coastal stratus developing tonight. Low confidence in HAF getting fog and low stratus. If it does happen, the most likely period for development would be 08-11Z before offshore winds mix out the lower layers. Light winds persist overnight, before a moderate offshore push in the interior Thursday morning, balanced by a gentle onshore flow developing in the afternoon. Vicinity of SFO... VFR at the terminal through the TAF period. Light winds overnight will turn offshore Thursday morning before moderate northwest flow resumes in the afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through the TAF period. Light to gentle offshore winds persist overnight into Thursday morning before the moderate northwest flow resumes afternoon. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 959 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Generally VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period, with some high resolution models depicting patchy coastal stratus developing tonight. Low confidence in HAF getting fog and low stratus. If it does happen, the most likely period for development would be 08-11Z before offshore winds mix out the lower layers. Light winds persist overnight, before a moderate offshore push in the interior Thursday morning, balanced by a gentle onshore flow developing in the afternoon. Vicinity of SFO... VFR at the terminal through the TAF period. Light winds overnight will turn offshore Thursday morning before moderate northwest flow resumes in the afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through the TAF period. Light to gentle offshore winds persist overnight into Thursday morning before the moderate northwest flow resumes afternoon. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 243 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Moderate seas continue across the outer waters, while the inner waters see slight to moderate seas through Friday. During this time frame, gentle to fresh northerly breezes continue. Moderate to fresh northerly winds return for the weekend, which will be accompanied with rough seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 547 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A Fire Weather Watch was issued for the North Bay Interior Mountains and will go into effect later this evening and run through Friday morning. This is due to moderate offshore winds very dry with very poor overnight humidity recoveries only reaching 14 to 24 percent. Rapid fire spread is possible given the combination of gusty northerly winds and very dry overnight conditions. Elsewhere in the Bay Area, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected for the higher elevations late tonight through Friday morning. Dry conditions, poor overnight RH recovery, combined with the breezy winds, warmer weather, and available fuels leads to the elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Fire Weather Watch from this evening through Friday morning for CAZ504. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...KR MARINE...KR Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  031 FXUS63 KBIS 151524 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1024 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph develop this morning behind a cold front. The winds will continue into this evening before gradually diminishing from northwest to southeast tonight. - Widespread freezing temperatures are possible Thursday night into Friday morning, especially over western locations. - Notably milder temperatures to end the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1021 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Strong cold front continues southeast across the region. Main changes with this update was to modify sky cover to better time the arrival of low level stratus surging in behind the FROPA. I also opted to go coverage for showers (isolated/scattered) for this afternoon and evening. Wind headlines on track. UPDATE Issued at 643 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Cold front has now pushed through western and much of north central North Dakota, with northwest winds increasing in its wake. Going forecast remains in good shape. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 405 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Current surface analysis places low over western Manitoba with cold front dropping down through western North Dakota into northwest South Dakota, while high settles through Alberta into western/central Montana. Upper level analysis places low over Colorado, with northern stream short wave now pushing through Saskatchewan nudging into the Northern Plains. For today, aforementioned front will continue its progression through the state with winds increasing in its wake given the pressure gradient and cold air advection. Forecast soundings continue to suggest that ongoing mention of gusts to 55 mph in the Wind Advisory remain reasonable across the area. The only change to the headline was to extend the expiration of the James River Valley and parts of south central North Dakota into the overnight hours as winds look to be slow to diminish over that area. Along with the wind, expect to see a few light rain showers in the wake of the front with the passing short wave. Expect this could lead to some brief enhancement of wind gusts as light showers pass through. As we go through tonight, high slides into western North Dakota and skies clear, which will allow temperatures to drop off to below freezing. The question is how far east the skies will clear out over central North dakota allowing temperatures to drop off. Therefore, will hold off on any freeze headlines for now until we can get another look at this later today. On Friday, surface high slides off to the south/east, while upper ridging to the west slides easterly. This will allow temperatures to rebound, though highs will still be a bit below average. Upper ridge continues its easterly progression going into Saturday, when temperatures will climb well above average, with mid 60s to mid 70s through the area. Seasonably mild temperatures and dry conditions continue into the first part of the upcoming week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 643 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A passing cold front will result in strong northwesterly winds developing during the day, which will linger into the evening hours. MVFR ceilings, along with the potential for isolated showers, are expected for most of the state behind the front. Winds will diminish and ceilings will improve late this evening into the overnight hours from northwest to southeast. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-031>033-035-040>044- 055>062. Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for NDZ023-025-036-037- 046>048-050-051. && $$ UPDATE...NH DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...JJS  416 FXUS64 KOHX 151534 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1034 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1018 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Unseasonably warm weather continues today with record highs likely. - A cold front will arrive on Friday, bringing very low rain chances and much cooler temperatures. - There are no rain chances in Middle Tennessee after Friday. Drought conditions are therefore expected to worsen at least in the near-term. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1018 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A warm front remains situated to the immediate north of Middle Tennessee. There are a few radar echoes showing up across Kentucky, but rain chances across the mid state are negligible. A strong cold front is expected to blast through the region tomorrow and bring significantly cooler temperatures. Despite the strong temperature gradient between air masses, only low rain chances and minuscule rainfall amounts are expected with tomorrow's fropa. Indeed, the cold front will come through dry for most locations. But the temperatures that await on the other side are going to feel marvelous. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1018 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 While we're looking at one more day of record-breaking warmth today, many spots are likely to wake up to frost Sunday morning, mainly along the Cumberland Plateau and other traditional "cool spots" around the area. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across Middle Tennessee well into next week. Temperatures will warm up gradually after this weekend, but we don't expect to stray too far above seasonal norms even by the end of the week. Meanwhile, after Friday, there are no more weather-producing systems coming our way any time soon. Therefore, the worsening drought conditions that we are experiencing will continue to worsen, at least in the near-term. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 550 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions prevail this taf cycle with the exception of CKV where low status and periods of dense fog will impact the terminal through 13Z. Otherwise scattered cloud cover today with southwesterly winds between 5-10 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 92 62 69 46 / 0 0 20 0 Clarksville 91 57 65 43 / 10 10 20 0 Crossville 85 62 73 41 / 0 0 20 20 Columbia 93 63 72 44 / 0 0 20 0 Cookeville 88 62 71 44 / 10 0 20 10 Jamestown 86 62 72 42 / 10 0 30 30 Lawrenceburg 91 63 73 44 / 0 0 20 0 Murfreesboro 93 64 72 45 / 0 0 20 0 Waverly 90 58 64 45 / 0 0 20 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Baggett  679 FXUS64 KHUN 151543 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1043 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1043 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Above normal temperatures are forecast today with more record setting warmth, and Minor to Moderate (Level 2/4) heat impacts across portions of the Tennessee Valley. - Colder conditions returning Friday into the weekend. - Dry conditions are forecast through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1043 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Surface high pressure off of the Southeast Coast will produce a southerly flow across the greater Tennessee Valley region. This warm flow, along with mostly sunny skies into the afternoon, will result in one last day of unseasonable warmth. Highs again should soar into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Standing record high today in Huntsville of 88 set in 1924, 1938 and 1947 will probably fall, and the record at Muscle Shoals of 91/2015 will be challenged. Given 925mb temperatures of 22-24C do support highs to the lower 90s. We should have mild night one last time, with lows in the low/mid 60s. With the very warm surface temperatures, dewpoints falling will produce relative humidity values down into the mid 30s percent range across NW Alabama. Even if they fall lower, light SW winds should help preclude serious outdoor fire spread and growth. That said, outdoor fires could occur given dry fine fuels (grasses, small branches) across the region. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 1043 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The warm spell that we have been experiencing as of late will come to an end Friday morning, as a cold front sweeps in NW-SE manner across the Valley. This boundary will be moisture starved (with most of the dynamics and moisture well to our north and NE), thus am expecting a "dry" frontal passage. Newer output from the ECMWF was hinting at light showers mainly along and east of the I-65 corridor Fri afternoon. The front should be felt as SW winds will become NW, increasing to 15-20 mph with some gusts over 25 mph. Highs should range from the mid 70s NW Alabama where the cool air arrives earlier, to around 80 over the eastern areas where it arrive later. What could be called "blustery" conditions are expected Fri night as temperatures fall. Temperatures in the early evening should be only in the lower 60s, but will fall into the upper 40s by the late evening. A stiff NW-N flow of 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph will make for uncomfortable conditions for those participating in outdoor activities. The colder trend will continue under mostly sunny skies Sat, with highs only into the lower 60s. Northerly winds of 10-20 mph are expected into the early afternoon, then should gradually diminish towards the early evening. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 931 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 High pressure at the surface by Sat night should be situated over the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. This cold anticyclone bringing a N-NE flow across the greater Tennessee Valley will bring the coldest air of the season thus far. Night time lows by Sun morning should range from the upper 30s our southern Middle Tennessee counties to the low/mid 40s near large bodies of water. The models have been showing mainly 38 degrees over Lincoln and Moore counties. Under clear skies and light winds, we cannot rule out temperatures falling another couple of degrees or so, which would bring a frost risk. This is something we will monitor. The start of a new week should feature sunny skies with high temperatures a bit warmer than they were Sat, rising into the mid and upper 60s. Light winds in the morning should become E-SE in the afternoon.Not as cold Sun night with lows in the low/mid 40s. A slow warming trend is expected for the start of the new work week. Under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, highs Mon should rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s, with lows Mon night mid 40s to around 50. The moderation in temperatures continues into the midweek. Under partly cloudy skies, highs on Tue should get close to seasonable norms into the low/mid 70s, and into the mid 70s to around 80 Wed. Lows Tue night again should range from the mid 40s to around 50. Dry weather should continue into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 533 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through the duration of the TAF period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM....RSB LONG TERM....RSB AVIATION...RAD  963 FXUS66 KSEW 151547 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 847 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge will bring dry and warm conditions through Friday. Wetter and cooler weather arrives on Saturday. Sunday remains cool with more wet weather headed our way on Monday. Another front may reach us midweek. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The Dense Fog Advisory has been extended until 10AM this morning as there are still quite a few locations throughout the Puget Sound region where visibilities are at a quarter mile or less. Otherwise, afternoon sun is still expected with highs around 70. The rest of the previous discussion can be found below with an update to the aviation and marine sections. Forecast highs will track warmer than normal with lower 70s expected today. Areas near the water will be in the 60s. Offshore flow will peak overnight with gusty east winds along the Cascade crest and in the gaps (gusts to 20-30 MPH). Friday will be slightly warmer with interior temperatures reaching the mid 70s. Saturday's weather will be cooler and wetter as the ridge shifts east and a front/trough move in from the west. Rain will mostly fall during the morning hours with highest chances of seeing wetting rains along the coast and north part. The Seattle area on south may only see a trace to a few hundredths. Onshore flow will increase Saturday afternoon with showers and a convergence zone over Snohomish County. 33 && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... We're in between weather systems on Sunday but the air mass will remain cool. Sunday's morning lows will be in the 30s to mid 40s with temperatures near freezing across the south sound. Highs will be around 60 degrees. An upper low will spin offshore early next week keeping the weather cool and unsettled through Monday. The upper low will shift farther south on Tuesday for generally dry weather across western WA. Rain chances increase again on Wednesday as a weak front tracks down from B.C. 33 && .AVIATION... Areas of fog and low stratus are bringing IFR to LIFR conditions to many of the interior terminals this morning. Fog will scatter through the morning hours, with conditions expected to improve at the area terminals between 17-19Z. A return to VFR conditions is expected by this afternoon with mostly clear skies and high clouds streaming in overhead. High cloud cover will persist through tonight. High cloud cover and continued offshore flow in the low levels tonight will likely limit widespread fog development on Friday morning, with high-res guidance showing little to no fog development expected for the area terminals. However, NBM LAMP guidance suggests some development by Friday morning. Given the current discrepancy, will maintain fog for the more fog-prone locations across the south Sound for Friday morning at this time. Winds remain north/northeasterly 5 to 10 kt through the period. Easterly winds will persist through the Cascades with gusts up to 20- 25 kt through the gaps this afternoon and into this evening. KSEA...LIFR conditions at the terminal this morning. Stratus and fog look to scatter around 18-19Z followed by VFR conditions with high clouds through this evening. Fog/stratus development is possible Friday morning but high clouds should keep it less widespread. Latest guidance continues to show divergent solutions. Winds north/northeasterly 5-10 kt through this afternoon. Winds may turn east/southeasterly briefly as early as 20-22Z, but more likely around 00Z Fri before winds shift more to the south/southwest Friday morning. 62/14 && .MARINE... Areas of fog have have developed across portions of the interior waters and along the Strait of Juan de Fuca this morning and have become dense in spots.Fog may bring visibilities down to 1 nautical mile or less through the mid-morning hours, before scattering by late morning/early afternoon. Offshore flow will increase this morning as a thermal trough develops along the coast. Winds will peak this morning, but remain offshore through early Friday as the trough gets pushed inland by an incoming frontal system. This system will force winds to switch to onshore on Friday and increase Friday night into Saturday. The strongest winds will be most likely through the Strait of Juan de Fuca where there is a 35-45% chance of seeing up to low-end gale force gusts, but other locations such as the outer coastal waters and through Puget Sound and Hood Canal have 40-70% chances of seeing wind gusts over 20 kt. Winds look to decrease as the system departs Saturday evening. Winds look to remain relatively benign Sunday through early next week as systems are favored to pass by well offshore. Seas remain 4 to 6 ft through tonight, increasing to around 8 to near 10 ft Friday through the weekend. The forecast gets more uncertain on Monday as a low pressure system moves through well offshore, but could generate and send larger waves to the coastal waters. The most likely forecast remains in the 8 to 10 ft range, but waves could get as large as 13 to 16 ft depending on the exact track of this system. EPS and GEFS show a 20-30% chance of seas exceeding 12 ft Monday into Tuesday. 62/14 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PDT this morning for City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern Kitsap County-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties- Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties- Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area. PZ...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PDT this morning for Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal. && $$