760 FXUS62 KJAX 151304 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 904 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Minor River Flooding Continues Along Lower Portions of the Satilla River - Patchy to Areas of Fog Early Thursday Morning. Locally Dense Fog at mile possible through 9 AM - Local NorEaster Conditions Return this Weekend. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions - High Risk for Rip Currents & Rough, High Surf. Small Craft Advisory, Potential Gusts to Gale Force Sunday into Monday. Minor Tidal Flooding Potential at Coast, ICW & St. Johns Basin. Extended duration minor flooding along St Johns River into next week possible && .UPDATE... The Dense Fog advisory was expanded to include almost all of inland SE GA except for Jeff Davis county, and also westward over NE FL to the Suwannee River including all of Hamilton, Suwannee and Gilchrist counties as supported by observations and satellite trends. Still expect the dense fog to lift into low stratus over the next hour as the sun rises and stronger heating combined with winds increasing to 5-10 mph from the east and southeast help mix out the fog. Otherwise, today will other be a warm and sunny day with little in the way of any clouds as surface high pressure axis extends across the area from the east northeast and ridging aloft persists over the coastal southeast. Highs will be above normal in the mid to upper 80s inland with isolated highs near 90, while cooler at the coast in the lower 80s due to the light onshore flow. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights through Tonight: - Patchy to Areas of Fog, locally dense Surface high pressure will remain in place across the area Today. The combination of low level moisture from recent rains and light winds, will produce fog again early this morning. The fog may become locally dense. The high will weaken Tonight, as a front approaches from the northwest. Fog potential will exist again Tonight. Above average temperatures expected this period. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Potential for a few storms over north central FL Friday afternoon/evening -Coastal hazards begin late Friday night into Saturday with beginning stages of elevated water levels, high rip current risk, and rough surf and seas. - Northerly winds expected to gust to around 35 mph on Saturday and Saturday night, with a potential for gusts of 40 mph along the coastal areas of northeast FL, which would necessitate a wind advisory along the coast Big changes occur this period as a low level high pressure ridge over the region on Friday shifts quickly eastward while a cold front approaches from the northwest. The front will sweep south-southeast across the area Friday night. We expect warm conditions with southwest flow ahead of the front on Friday into Friday evening and sufficient instability will lead to a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly across northeast and north central FL, and parts of the coastal waters. Highs expected to be in the mid to upper 80s. Mild lows on Friday night in the 60s. Notable wind shift to the northwest expected late Friday night through early Saturday morning. By sunrise Saturday morning, the strong cold front may be just past our forecast area or laying right across Flagler, Putnam, and Marion counties. Scattered light rain areas expected Saturday but rainfall amounts look pretty low at less than 0.05 inches. Only 10 percent or less chance of rain for northeast FL Saturday night and near zero for southeast GA. Strong high pressure will build north of the area behind the front, with a blustery north across the area about 15-25 mph with gusts of about 35 mph. Expect breezy winds to continue Saturday night, but mainly at the coastal counties due to north- northeast trajectory off the Atlantic waters. Much cooler high temps on Saturday with substantial cloudiness with highs in the 70s and lows Saturday night in the 50s north zones to lower 60s southeast zones. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Coastal hazards including tidal flooding, gusty winds, elevated rip risk and surf expected from Sunday through Tuesday Strong high pressure will continue to be north of the area Sunday around 1037 mb across the Mid Atlantic states will shift east into the western Atlantic by Monday, providing for strong north-northeast flow for Sunday and Monday. This flow expected to bring a chance of showers for the coastal areas into mid week. Brief downpours possible as moisture streams in off the ATlantic with POPs generally 20-50 percent for coastal zones, and diminishing further inland. Still looks like potential for wind gusts of 35-40 mph at the coast for Sunday and Monday, and gradually diminishing by Tuesday and Wednesday. The elevated onshore flow will bring coastal hazards such as tidal flooding, rip currents, high surf, and minor to moderate beach erosion. Winds will begin to taper off by midweek as the high pressure begins to weaken but a northeast flow will continue to prevail. Max temperatures will be well below average Sunday in the upper 60s north zones and lower to mid 70s south zones. Veering flow on Monday will start to bring max temps up a bit into the mid to upper 70s from Monday through mid week. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... MVFR/IFR fog will prevail at the terminals this morning through 14Z with tempo groups through 13Z/14Z at VQQ, JAX, and SSI TAF sites for LIFR/VLIFR VSBY from dense fog with little to calm winds until later this morning as light east to southeasterly winds mix down to the surface. High Pressure ridge axis extending over the area from the ENE will remain across the area today and then slowly shift east of the area into the western Atlantic waters. Light east to southeasterly winds will shift inland, then become very light and variable tonight along the coast and calm inland with only a few high thin clouds expected and few low level cumulus mostly south of the TAF sites. Fog will redevelop and bring MVFR/IFR/LIFR restrictions between 06Z- 09Z at the inland and SSI terminals again late tonight as low level moisture and dry air above the surface remain. && .MARINE... High pressure will be over the area Today, then weaken Tonight into Friday. A cold front will move southeast across the area Friday night. Strong high pressure will build behind the front. A surge of north winds will move south down the coastal waters behind the front, with elevated winds from late Friday night through much of next week, with Gale force winds possible. Rip Currents: Low to Moderate risk through Friday. High risk of rip currents with rough surf from Saturday through much of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy Low Daytime Dispersions Today - Patchy High Afternoon Dispersions Friday Through Monday High pressure remains over the area into Friday, with easterly winds persisting today. Southwesterly winds develop on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will push through the area by Friday night. Northeasterly winds develop this weekend behind the cold front as high pressure builds north of the area. Elevated winds are expected along the Atlantic coast of SE GA and NE FL beginning late Friday Night, with the elevated winds persisting into the upcoming week. This will bring chances of showers for coastal locations through the weekend and next week. Poor to Fair dispersions persist this afternoon. By Friday, Good to High dispersions develop over SE GA ahead of the frontal boundary, with Fair to good dispersions expected over NE FL. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Areas of dense fog is possible during the late night and early morning hours through Friday Morning. This will mainly be over inland areas and Dense Fog Advisories may be required. There is a low chance for thunderstorms over north central FL Friday afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Satilla River during the next several days. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor tidal flooding is possible along the Atlantic coast, ICWW, and St. Johns river basin this weekend and early next week as strong northeasterly winds develop. Some significant beach erosion is possible by Sunday, especially coastal northeast FL, as seas for the nearshore waters build to the 10-15 ft range through Monday night while southeast GA nearshore seas mainly in the 8-13 ft range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 88 65 86 63 / 0 0 0 10 SSI 83 70 85 68 / 0 0 0 10 JAX 86 67 88 68 / 0 0 20 20 SGJ 84 71 86 70 / 0 0 30 30 GNV 88 68 88 69 / 0 0 40 30 OCF 89 70 88 71 / 0 0 50 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for FLZ021-023- 024-030-031-035-120-220-322-422-425-522. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for GAZ132- 134>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364. MARINE...None. && $$  823 FXUS63 KIND 151352 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN Issued by National Weather Service Louisville KY 952 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms today, with isolated severe storms capable of damaging winds this afternoon and evening - Strong post-frontal northwest winds will gust between 25 and 35 mph on Friday - Widespread frost and localized freeze conditions are likely Saturday night into Sunday morning && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 933 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The forecast remains in good shape this morning with no significant changes needed. Expect mostly quiet weather conditions through the early afternoon hours before a low pressure system moves through the region bringing increasing rain and storm chances late this afternoon into the overnight hours. The isolated severe weather threat remains in play from mid afternoon into this evening with more details on the overall threat in the discussion below. The primary threats are isolated damaging wind gusts and the potential for a brief tornado. && .DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)... Issued at 131 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Today through Friday. As of early this morning, the front that brought rain to central Indiana is south of the forecast area, but as the next low pressure system moves in from the Central Plains later this morning, that front is expected to push back to the north. Ahead of the boundary, poleward moisture advection characterized by an 850 mb low-level jet of 40-50 kt will lift surface dew points into the low-to-mid 60s, creating a short window in the mid to late afternoon hours where MLCAPE could reach 750 to 1250 J/kg along and south of the I-70 corridor by early afternoon. Kinematic fields are quite robust, with 500 mb mid-level flow around 50-60 kt yielding effective bulk shear of 45-55 kt. This deep-layer shear will favor organized multi-cell clusters and linear segments capable of bowing along with an increasing threat for a few discrete supercells late this afternoon into the evening. Low-level 0-1 km storm-relative helicity values of 100-150 m2/s2 will support an isolated brief spin-up along the warm front, but that threat will be conditional on the front location and extent of daytime warming. Thus the dominant convective hazard will be damaging straight-line downdraft winds up to 60 mph via momentum transport with the tornado threat being secondary. HREF ensemble members (HRRR, FV3, and ARW) depict initial convective development across west-central Indiana between 18Z and 20Z, progressing across the Indianapolis metro area between 21Z and 00Z, and exiting eastern counties by 02Z-04Z with the potential that this occurs over 2 rounds through the day QPF will average between 0.50 and 1.00 inches; localized training could produce minor nuisance ponding in poor drainage areas, but the progressive motion of the system will mitigate widespread flash flood concerns. The cold front will push southeast of the forecast area by 03Z, bringing an end to heavier precipitation with lingering light rain through the night. Cold air advection will ensue overnight as 850 mb temperatures plummet from +12C to near +1C by Friday afternoon. The tight pressure gradient between the departing surface low over eastern Canada and a Canadian high building into the Plains will generate efficient boundary-layer momentum transfer. Diurnal mixing into the 850-800 mb layer will tap into 35-40 kt ambient flow, supporting sustained northwest winds of 18-25 mph with frequent gusts of 25-35 mph Friday afternoon. Cyclonic flow and steep low- level lapse rates will foster an extensive stratocumulus deck, particularly across the northern two-thirds of the CWA. Highs on Friday will remain suppressed, ranging from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s south. Winds Friday night should keep frost formation limited even as temperatures drop into the mid to upper 30s, but sheltered areas could see some frost ahead of a widespread frost Saturday night. Saturday Through Wednesday. A broad longwave trough will anchor across the eastern CONUS on Saturday as a strong surface anticyclone shifts from the Upper Mississippi Valley southeastward across the Ohio Valley through Sunday. The core of the cold pool will sit overhead Saturday, keeping 850 mb temperatures around 0C to +2C. Despite clearing skies and subsidence, daytime highs on Saturday will struggle to reach out of the mid 50s, 10-15 degrees below normal. Saturday night into Sunday morning represents the primary frost and low-end freeze window of the period. The surface high center will settle directly over central Indiana by 09Z Sunday, decoupling the boundary layer and yielding calm winds, clear skies, and a very dry ambient air mass with dew points in the upper 20s to low 30s. Strong radiational cooling will cause overnight minimum temperatures to drop into the lower to mid-30s across the entire forecast area, with rural drainage basins and traditional cold spots likely dropping near freezing. Widespread frost is expected across central Indiana, and freeze conditions are probable in sheltered rural areas. Frost and freeze headlines will likely be required as confidence remains high across deterministic GFS, ECMWF, and their respective ensemble suites. The anticyclone will drift eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday, allowing insolation to rebound highs into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Lows Sunday night will remain cool, in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with patchy frost confined to far eastern rural valleys before low-level winds back to the south. For Monday through Wednesday, the synoptic pattern transitions as upper-level ridging builds over the eastern states and a deep trough carves out over the western CONUS. Steady south-southwesterly return flow will drive a significant warm air advection regime across the Ohio Valley. 850 mb temperatures will moderate to +10C to +13C, pushing daytime highs into the lower 70s on Monday and mid-70s on Tuesday. Overnight lows will moderate into the upper 40s to mid-50s. Medium-range guidance indicates an ejecting northern-stream shortwave trough will drag an associated surface cold front toward the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday. Moisture convergence ahead of this boundary will raise precipitable water values back above 1.25 inches, supporting chance to likely PoPs for rain showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. Displaced upper-level dynamic support and marginal instability currently suggest a low probability of severe weather with this mid-week frontal passage. Temperatures on Wednesday will run in the upper 60s to lower 70s ahead of the front. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 552 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Impacts: - MVFR to IFR cigs are expected for much of this TAF period - Showers and storms expected this afternoon, confidence highest at HUF and BMG - Additional showers tonight, coverage decreasing after 06Z - Wind shifts through the period - Wind gusts 15-20kt tonight, up to 25kt after 15Z Friday Discussion: MVFR cigs are expected for much of the day with periods of VFR ahead of the next round of rain during the afternoon hours. Confidence is highest in the 19Z to 00Z timeframe towards BMG and HUF where both brief gusty winds and lightning are possible. The lightning potential looks lower for LAF and IND with thunder chances decreasing after 02Z. Vsbys should remain VFR outside of stronger showers and storms. Easterly winds this morning will become southerly this afternoon, and westerly during the evening before finally turning to the northwest during the overnight into Friday. Gusts are expected to start late this evening outside of convection and continue through the remainder of the TAF period with peak gusts up to 25kt after 15Z Friday. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Melo AVIATION...White DISCUSSION...White  867 FXUS62 KTAE 151354 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 954 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 951 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Patchy dense fog is possible from the early to mid-morning in the Suwanee Valley, Flint River Valley, and the FL Panhandle today. Another round of fog is likely again on Friday morning. - A strong cold frontal passage on Friday night will lead to gusty winds this weekend to 35 mph over land and 40 knots over coastal waters that may impact hurricane recovery efforts, including compromised trees leading to power outages, drones, improperly secured roof tarps, loose outdoor items, and hazardous boating. - Above normal temperatures with highs in the mid-80s to near 90 through Friday, turning sharply cooler this weekend with highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s. Little to no chance for rain expected. && .UPDATE... Issued at 951 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The Dense Fog Advisory that was issued earlier this morning for portions of the I-75 corridor down to the Eastern FL Big Bend will be allowed to expire at 10 AM EDT. Otherwise, there were no major changes today's forecast. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High pressure at the surface and aloft will gradually breakdown by Friday as a cold front approaches. The pattern will remain favorable for patchy dense fog this morning and Friday morning across portions of the region. Highs will be above normal in the mid-80s to around 90 through Friday with some humidity in the air as well. Cannot rule out a brief shower Friday or Friday night mainly closer to the coast. A strong but dry cold frontal passage is remains on tap Friday night, with a much cooler and drier air mass this weekend. Breezy conditions in the wake of the front may impact outdoor events and hurricane recovery efforts this weekend. Wind gusts up to 35 mph over land and 40 knots over the coastal waters are a good bet, especially on Saturday, with winds remaining elevated into early next week. Deep layer ridging over the region early next week should maintain dry weather with warming temperatures. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 535 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Fog is currently developing east of VLD and gradually building westward. The TAF continues tempo IFR vsbys through 13Z. VFR thereafter as well as the other sites through the period. Generally sky clear today then increasing high clouds tonight. Patchy fog, though not in the TAFs attm, may be added with better confidence in subsequent TAFs. Winds will be calm to light east to east-southeasterly. && .MARINE... Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Tranquil boating conditions expected into Friday with daily sea breezes. On Friday night, a cold front will blast across the waters, ushering in a sharp increase in fresh to strong northerly breezes with gale-force wind gusts. Winds are expected to remain elevated into next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Fair dispersion across most of the region today, except pockets of low dispersion through this afternoon in Southwest GA. On Friday, high dispersion chances increase ahead of a cold front. Cannot rule out a brief shower closer to the coast on Friday or on Friday night, otherwise dry conditions with minRH percentage values in the mid-30s to low 40s today and Friday. Light transport winds of 5 to 10 mph generally out of the east can be expected today, then clocking around to the west and increasing on Friday ahead of the cold front. A strong cold frontal passage is expected Friday night, with breezy conditions to following for this weekend. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to around 90through Friday, the decreasing to the 70s this weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 With the recent rainfall, several rivers are observed/forecast in action stage. The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce may eventually go into minor flood, but confidence remains on the lower side for now. No additional rainfall or flooding is expected over the upcoming week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 89 67 88 63 / 0 0 0 10 Panama City 86 67 85 61 / 0 0 10 10 Dothan 88 64 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 89 64 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 89 66 88 63 / 0 0 0 10 Cross City 88 69 88 68 / 0 0 20 30 Apalachicola 83 70 83 65 / 0 0 10 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for FLZ019-028- 029-034. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for GAZ147-148- 159>161. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...IG3 SHORT TERM...LF LONG TERM....LF AVIATION...Scholl MARINE...LF FIRE WEATHER...LF HYDROLOGY...LF