211 FXUS61 KPBZ 151207 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 807 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Rain shower chances have decreased today. Added a mention of thunder on Friday with a strong cold front. A portion of the area generally east of I-79 has been included in a Marginal Risk for severe storms with damaging winds on Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm front lift north tonight 2) Strong cold front crosses Friday with showers, possible thunderstorms, and gusty wind. Colder behind the front, with frost and freeze conditions Saturday night. 3) Dry and warmer next week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front was analyzed from the Mid Atlantic region to the Lower Ohio Valley region. A wave moving along the front could spread some showers across areas south of I-70 today. An isolated shower is possible across the remainder of the area, though much of the time will be dry in easterly flow. The front will return north as a warm front tonight, as a digging shortwave trough and deepening surface low advance across the Midwest. Showers are expected as the front lifts north, with isolated thunderstorms also possible with elevated instability. A low level jet is also expected to increase and track across the Lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley region tonight. This should enhance lift, resulting in more numerous showers and possible thunderstorms north of Pittsburgh. A portion of eastern Ohio was included in a Marginal Risk for severe storms this evening. It appears there is a better chance for severe storms upstream, and there is some question on how far east this activity will reach before weakening. Overall, the potential for severe storms across the Upper Ohio Valley region appears limited, with the instability becoming elevated by the time storms arrive. 0-6km shear is expected to range from 45-55kt, which could result in a gusty wind potential until the storms become elevated tonight. KEY MESSAGE 2... The warm front should lift north of the region Friday morning, as the deepening surface low tracks across Ontario. The low will pull a strong cold front across the region from W-E from mid morning into the early afternoon. With the slower FROPA timing, enough instability could build with some heating early in the day to result in a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has included areas roughly east of I-79 in a Marginal Risk for severe storms/damaging wind gusts as the front crosses. With a strong wind field in place aloft, any stronger shower or thunderstorm could mix this wind down to the surface (wind at 10 kft is expected to be around 60 kt.) After FROPA, cold advection and a tight pressure gradient should result in gusty wind from 30-40 mph across much of the area. Probabilities for advisory level gusts (greater than 45mph), and currently range from 5 percent to as much as 35 percent across the lower elevations. It still appears the higher terrain areas will see the highest gusts, with advisory level gusts the most likely across eastern Tucker county WV later Friday into Friday night. Overall, the less aggressive cold advection should result in slightly less steep lapse rates, which could limit gusts outside of the higher terrain. Showers are expected to increase again Friday night as the strong upper trough crosses the region, and some lake enhancement occurs. Temperatures are currently expected to remain above freezing, with wind precluding a frost potential. Wind should diminish on Saturday as high pressure builds in. Clearing skies and diminishing wind should result in widespread frost and freeze conditions Saturday night into Sunday morning. KEY MESSAGE 3... A less amplified flow aloft is expected by next week as the deep upper trough exits the area. Rising 500mb height and surface high pressure should result in dry weather into the middle of next week, with a gradual warming trend back to seasonable temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Due to dry air advection from northerly flow at the surface, some areas of MVFR cigs eroded, however, redevelopment of these cigs is likely later today as the flow gradually veers to the east. For those outside this clearing, mainly MVFR cigs are forecast through much of the day as a warm front begins to lift north toward the region. Further deterioration to low MVFR, and eventually IFR, is expected this evening and tonight as the front crosses, and showers overspread the region. There could be isolated thunderstorms as well with elevated instability and a crossing low level jet. This jet should also result in a LLWS potential from late evening through the overnight hours. Overnight, we will also see the wind veer from east to south as conditions remain relatively breezy. By tomorrow morning, areas around PIT and south, are forecast to briefly scatter out by tomorrow morning. During the day, a strong cold front will bring showers and possible thunderstorms along with wind freshening up as it veers to the west. Gusts up to 30-40kts are likely with higher gusts up to 45-50kts possible across the higher terrain airports. Outlook... Showers will continue Friday night under subsequent upper troughing. Building high pressure will return dry weather Saturday into next week. Wind will also diminish on Saturday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WM AVIATION...WM/Lupo  739 FXUS63 KFGF 151213 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 713 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Advisory level winds are expected this afternoon into tonight across eastern North Dakota and the Red River valley. - Best chance for widespread freezing temperatures will be Friday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Change in the forecast for today was to change start and end time of the wind advisory. Based on HRRR forecasts of peak winds there are two corridors. One is more with a west-northwest wind shift southwest of the sfc low originating in the Saskatoon and Regina area moving southeast thru western into central ND into north central SD. This is more daytime today...with chances for winds reaching advisory after 18z in far western fcst area Cando to Devils Lake to Valley City. Though it is possible advisory level winds remain a bit west of this area. Another corridor of high wind potential will be felt directly to the west of the sfc low in associated with cold advection that drops south from Winnipeg to Fargo after dark tonight. BUFKIT soundings for Fargo and Grand Forks show best lapse rates to mix down winds from 870 mb to be felt 04z-08z Friday where winds of 40-45 kts should mix down. Wind direction during this time overnight is northerly and favorable for a period of highest winds in the valley. Push of cold air isnt intense so dont expect an over achieving wind event at this time, as we may get in the winter time in a similar situation. With the timing above...went advisory 18z to 09z for DVL region, kept it early yet in case winds increase fast enough. In the valley where initial winds will not be advisory, went 23z-11z or 6pm to 6 am. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 114 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...Synopsis... Widespread stratus deck continues to linger across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon, keeping temperatures in the low to mid 40s thus far today. Upper flow is nearly zonal, but will be transitioning to southwest this evening and overnight before shifting to the northwest late Thursday evening. Very light precipitation is possible along a cold front Thursday afternoon and evening, mainly from the Red River Valley eastward into northwest Minnesota. Breezy northwest winds pick up early Thursday morning and persist through much of the day. The strongest pressure gradients shift eastward overnight into Friday morning with weak, transient, ridging bringing warmer temperatures into the area for Saturday and Sunday. ...Breezy Northwest Winds Thursday... Sustained northwest winds of 20-30 mph are possible Thursday with gusts upwards of 40-45 mph. This will be in response to a fast moving cold front and strong pressure rises on the western side of the frontal passage. There is still some uncertainty surrounding cloud cover, which could limit mixing during the afternoon and evening and slightly reduce the potential max wind gusts. At this time, the signal is consistently strong, however, with generally moderate to high confidence in the possibility of Advisory level winds. ...Freezing Temperatures Possible Friday Night... Guidance continues to bring colder air into the area following Thursday's cold front. Low temperatures Friday morning are expected to be in the lower 30s, but with lingering cloud cover. A better chance of upper 20s and low 30s will be Friday night into Saturday morning as cloud cover is expected to diminish by midday Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 705 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A mix bag of sky conditions today. There is one area of MVFR cigs with rain from Bemidji to Fergus Falls that will move out. Around it is extensive mid/high clouds. Now this area of cloud cover will clear out briefly from the west then MVFR cloud deck around the next upper low dropping southeast into the area will move in, mainly this afternoon and tonight. Winds will be a factor today, not so much this morning though. Cold front passing thru will turn winds to the northwest and look for a period of wind gusts in excess of 30 kts in KDVL mid afternoon into the evening and then a more north-northwest wind with frequent gusts 35kts or higher GFK/FAR tonight. The tricky part is the usual timing of wind switching from more south to southwest then northwest with the front and timing increasing wind speeds. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CDT Friday for NDZ008-016-027-029-030-039-049-052-053. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT Friday for NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054. MN...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CDT Friday for MNZ001>004-007-029. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...Riddle  827 FXUS65 KBOI 151215 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 615 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry conditions through the weekend with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal Friday and Saturday. - Active pattern returning cooler conditions and precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/... Issued 314 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026 under strong ridging as the Pacific high continues to build in over the western CONUS. Dry conditions and warmer than normal temperatures will continue today through Saturday. Clear skies and colder nighttime temperatures will favor the development of frosts and patchy fog this morning and Friday morning. Friday and Saturday could see daytime temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal as the ridge centers right over our area. A weak, dry shortwave trough will dig across the northwest region Saturday, bringing a dry cold front across the area late Saturday. Breezy northwest winds, mainly over upper Treasure Valley and Magic Valley areas, are expected on Saturday with this frontal passage. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued 314 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026 cold front moving across our area Sunday will help drop peak temperatures a few degrees, but will still be 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Monday through Tuesday, our area will come under a strong southwest flow ahead of an incoming Pacific upper low from the Gulf of Alaska. This flow pattern will keep Monday slightly warmer than normal with elevated wind breezes from the south. There is better long-term guidance agreement on the upper low diving south along the northwest and California coasts before moving inland into the Great Basin Tuesday through Thursday. This pattern will return a cooldown and chances of precipitation over our area late Tuesday through Thursday. There remains some uncertainty over the magnitude and coverage extent of this potential multi-day precipitation event next week, especially for Tuesday and Wednesday. For now, next Thursday is looking to have the highest potential for areawide precipitation as the upper low crosses the Great Basin. && .AVIATION /12Z Thursday through Friday/... Issued 608 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026 VFR. Patchy fog over eastern OR this morning. Areas of smoke from prescribed burning near KBNO and KMYL. Surface winds: S-SW 5-10 kt this morning becoming then E-SE 5-10kt in the afternoon. KBOI...VFR. S and variable under 7 kt this morning, then shifting SE 5-10kt by Thu afternoon. Weekend Outlook...VFR with mostly clear skies on Sat/Sun. Areas of smoke from prescribed burns. Surface winds: E-SE 5-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt mainly east of KBOI on Saturday, then S-SE 5-10 kt Sunday && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....JY SHORT TERM...JY LONG TERM....JY  181 FXUS62 KJAX 151229 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 829 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Minor River Flooding Continues Along Lower Portions of the Satilla River - Patchy to Areas of Fog Early Thursday Morning. Locally Dense Fog at mile possible through 9 AM - Local NorEaster Conditions Return this Weekend. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions - High Risk for Rip Currents & Rough, High Surf. Small Craft Advisory, Potential Gusts to Gale Force Sunday into Monday. Minor Tidal Flooding Potential at Coast, ICW & St. Johns Basin. Extended duration minor flooding along St Johns River into next week possible && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights through Tonight: - Patchy to Areas of Fog, locally dense Surface high pressure will remain in place across the area Today. The combination of low level moisture from recent rains and light winds, will produce fog again early this morning. The fog may become locally dense. The high will weaken Tonight, as a front approaches from the northwest. Fog potential will exist again Tonight. Above average temperatures expected this period. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Potential for a few storms over north central FL Friday afternoon/evening -Coastal hazards begin late Friday night into Saturday with beginning stages of elevated water levels, high rip current risk, and rough surf and seas. - Northerly winds expected to gust to around 35 mph on Saturday and Saturday night, with a potential for gusts of 40 mph along the coastal areas of northeast FL, which would necessitate a wind advisory along the coast Big changes occur this period as a low level high pressure ridge over the region on Friday shifts quickly eastward while a cold front approaches from the northwest. The front will sweep south-southeast across the area Friday night. We expect warm conditions with southwest flow ahead of the front on Friday into Friday evening and sufficient instability will lead to a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly across northeast and north central FL, and parts of the coastal waters. Highs expected to be in the mid to upper 80s. Mild lows on Friday night in the 60s. Notable wind shift to the northwest expected late Friday night through early Saturday morning. By sunrise Saturday morning, the strong cold front may be just past our forecast area or laying right across Flagler, Putnam, and Marion counties. Scattered light rain areas expected Saturday but rainfall amounts look pretty low at less than 0.05 inches. Only 10 percent or less chance of rain for northeast FL Saturday night and near zero for southeast GA. Strong high pressure will build north of the area behind the front, with a blustery north across the area about 15-25 mph with gusts of about 35 mph. Expect breezy winds to continue Saturday night, but mainly at the coastal counties due to north- northeast trajectory off the Atlantic waters. Much cooler high temps on Saturday with substantial cloudiness with highs in the 70s and lows Saturday night in the 50s north zones to lower 60s southeast zones. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Coastal hazards including tidal flooding, gusty winds, elevated rip risk and surf expected from Sunday through Tuesday Strong high pressure will continue to be north of the area Sunday around 1037 mb across the Mid Atlantic states will shift east into the western Atlantic by Monday, providing for strong north-northeast flow for Sunday and Monday. This flow expected to bring a chance of showersfor the coastal areas into mid week. Brief downpours possible as moisture streams in off the ATlantic with POPs generally 20-50 percent for coastal zones, and diminishing further inland. Still looks like potential for wind gusts of 35-40 mph at the coast for Sunday and Monday, and gradually diminishing by Tuesday and Wednesday. The elevated onshore flow will bring coastal hazards such as tidal flooding, rip currents, high surf, and minor to moderate beach erosion. Winds will begin to taper off by midweek as the high pressure begins to weaken but a northeast flow will continue to prevail. Max temperatures will be well below average Sunday in the upper 60s north zones and lower to mid 70s south zones. Veering flow on Monday will start to bring max temps up a bit into the mid to upper 70s from Monday through mid week. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... MVFR/IFR fog will prevail at the terminals this morning through 14Z with tempo groups through 13Z/14Z at VQQ, JAX, and SSI TAF sites for LIFR/VLIFR VSBY from dense fog with little to calm winds until later this morning as light east to southeasterly winds mix down to the surface. High Pressure ridge axis extending over the area from the ENE will remain across the area today and then slowly shift east of the area into the western Atlantic waters. Light east to southeasterly winds will shift inland, then become very light and variable tonight along the coast and calm inland with only a few high thin clouds expected and few low level cumulus mostly south of the TAF sites. Fog will redevelop and bring MVFR/IFR/LIFR restrictions between 06Z- 09Z at the inland and SSI terminals again late tonight as low level moisture and dry air above the surface remain. && .MARINE... High pressure will be over the area Today, then weaken Tonight into Friday. A cold front will move southeast across the area Friday night. Strong high pressure will build behind the front. A surge of north winds will move south down the coastal waters behind the front, with elevated winds from late Friday night through much of next week, with Gale force winds possible. Rip Currents: Low to Moderate risk through Friday. High risk of rip currents with rough surf from Saturday through much of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy Low Daytime Dispersions Today - Patchy High Afternoon Dispersions Friday Through Monday High pressure remains over the area into Friday, with easterly winds persisting today. Southwesterly winds develop on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will push through the area by Friday night. Northeasterly winds develop this weekend behind the cold front as high pressure builds north of the area. Elevated winds are expected along the Atlantic coast of SE GA and NE FL beginning late Friday Night, with the elevated winds persisting into the upcoming week. This will bring chances of showers for coastal locations through the weekend and next week. Poor to Fair dispersions persist this afternoon. By Friday, Good to High dispersions develop over SE GA ahead of the frontal boundary, with Fair to good dispersions expected over NE FL. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Areas of dense fog is possible during the late night and early morning hours through Friday Morning. This will mainly be over inland areas and Dense Fog Advisories may be required. There is a low chance for thunderstorms over north central FL Friday afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Satilla River during the next several days. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor tidal flooding is possible along the Atlantic coast, ICWW, and St. Johns river basin this weekend and early next week as strong northeasterly winds develop. Some significant beach erosion is possible by Sunday, especially coastal northeast FL, as seas for the nearshore waters build to the 10-15 ft range through Monday night while southeast GA nearshore seas mainly in the 8-13 ft range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 88 65 86 63 / 0 0 0 10 SSI 83 70 85 68 / 0 0 0 10 JAX 86 67 88 68 / 0 0 20 20 SGJ 84 71 86 70 / 0 0 30 30 GNV 88 68 88 69 / 0 0 40 30 OCF 89 70 88 71 / 0 0 50 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for FLZ021-023- 024-030-031-035-120-220-322-422-425-522. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for GAZ132- 134>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364. MARINE...None. && $$  636 FXUS63 KJKL 151234 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 834 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures remain mild today, while showers are possible at times into Friday. - Much cooler weather arrives for the weekend - likely the coldest we have experienced so far this autumn. This poses a risk for frost on Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 834 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026 A frontal boundary is stalled east-west across the forecast area this morning, with areas of showers tracking eastward along the front. Meanwhile, a mid-upper level low is over the central high plains and a significant mid-upper level trough is moving southeast into the CONUS from southern portions of Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The low will get picked up by this trough and help to further deepen the trough as it continues to head southeast and encompasses most of the eastern CONUS by Friday night. This will support a surface low currently developing near OK, which will rapidly deepen as it tracks across the Great Lakes and then to the St. Lawrence Valley by late Friday. The developing storms system will initially pull our current frontal boundary back northward this afternoon, and take it out of our area to the north tonight. Showers may continue at times near the front, but will end in our area once the front departs to the north this evening. A few thunderstorms will also be possible, especially if there is sufficient heating for surface based instability near the boundary this afternoon. The storm system's cold front will sweep cleanly through the JKL forecast area from NW to SE on Friday. Showers or light rain are likely for most of the area on Friday, mainly post cold fropa. Friday's highs should be during the morning and midday hours ahead of the front, with temperatures then falling for the rest of the day behind the front. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 834 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Expect a significant drop in temperatures to occur on Friday evening, with temperatures in the 50s area-wide by sunset. Once the sun goes down and solar insolation goes away, the temperature plummet will continue. The entire CWA should wake up to temperatures in the 40s on Saturday morning, but lingering cloud cover and some upsloped rain showers should prevent it from getting much colder than that. The same cannot be said for Saturday night/Sunday morning, which looks to be the coldest night of the autumn season thus far. As a post-frontal surface high pressure system builds into the CWA on Saturday morning, winds will shift to a more northerly orientation. This will bring an end to any orographically-enhanced post-frontal rain chances, and a much cooler/drier continental airmass will move into the region in the wake of the precipitation. Highs will struggle to get much warmer than the 50s, and dewpoints will plummet into the 30s on Saturday afternoon. Diurnal mixing should work to erode any lingering cloud cover by sunset, which should set the stage for efficient radiational cooling overnight. NBM ensemble data resolves a 60-90% chance of temperatures dropping below 36 degrees across most of the JKL CWA overnight. The most sheltered and shaded valleys could make a run at the 32 degree mark, but the probability of occurrence drops to below 40% at this threshold. As a reminder, the criteria for a Frost Advisory is defined as minimum shelter forecast temperatures between 33 and 36 degrees Fahrenheit during the growing season, on nights with good radiational cooling conditions. Saturday night is poised to meet this criteria, so agricultural interests and recreational gardeners are encouraged to monitor for potential product issuances as the time approaches. Temperatures will be slow to make a full recovery back above the 70 degree mark next week, although a gradual warm-up is expected. The postfrontal high should shift east on Sunday as the mid/upper level trough axis aloft swings through New England. Antecedent forecast thinking is that a building ridge will allow temperatures to moderate back into the 60s under fair skies by early next week. However, some of the more recent pieces of guidance (namely members of the Euro ensemble) are developing a cut-off low over the Carolinas in this time frame. That feature could block the eastward propagation of that ridging, and it would cause temperatures to stay on the lower side of the forecast envelope early next week. Nevertheless, fog should become favored over frost in the valleys at night as temperatures warm. This is typical for autumn in Eastern Kentucky, and next week's forecast features temperatures much closer to normal than what we are experiencing at the present moment. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026 Light to moderate rain lingered mainly in portions of southeast KY at the start of the period-- the remains of a line of thunderstorms which moved through much of the area. The precipitation is ahead of a very slow moving cold front moving south into KY. Many locations were seeing IFR or worse conditions where the precip moved through, and especially near/north of I-64. However, some places were still VFR, especially over south central KY. The remaining precip will be tapering off, but largely the status quo is expected for conditions into the day, with some variability up and down. There still could be some additional showers as well. The cold front will stall in eastern KY during the day and then turn back north as a warm front by evening. As the front heads back north, overall improvement is expected from south to north. VFR conditions are forecast to return area wide from south to north during the afternoon and early evening. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...MARCUS/HAL AVIATION...HAL  890 FXUS63 KJKL 151245 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 845 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures remain mild today, while showers are possible at times into Friday. - Much cooler weather arrives for the weekend - likely the coldest we have experienced so far this autumn. This poses a risk for frost on Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 834 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026 A frontal boundary is stalled east-west across the forecast area this morning, with areas of showers tracking eastward along the front. Meanwhile, a mid-upper level low is over the central high plains and a significant mid-upper level trough is moving southeast into the CONUS from southern portions of Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The low will get picked up by this trough and help to further deepen the trough as it continues to head southeast and encompasses most of the eastern CONUS by Friday night. This will support a surface low currently developing near OK, which will rapidly deepen as it tracks across the Great Lakes and then to the St. Lawrence Valley by late Friday. The developing storms system will initially pull our current frontal boundary back northward this afternoon, and take it out of our area to the north tonight. Showers may continue at times near the front, but will end in our area once the front departs to the north this evening. A few thunderstorms will also be possible, especially if there is sufficient heating for surface based instability near the boundary this afternoon. The storm system's cold front will sweep cleanly through the JKL forecast area from NW to SE on Friday. Showers or light rain are likely for most of the area on Friday, mainly post cold fropa. Friday's highs should be during the morning and midday hours ahead of the front, with temperatures then falling for the rest of the day behind the front. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 834 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Expect a significant drop in temperatures to occur on Friday evening, with temperatures in the 50s area-wide by sunset. Once the sun goes down and solar insolation goes away, the temperature plummet will continue. The entire CWA should wake up to temperatures in the 40s on Saturday morning, but lingering cloud cover and some upsloped rain showers should prevent it from getting much colder than that. The same cannot be said for Saturday night/Sunday morning, which looks to be the coldest night of the autumn season thus far. As a post-frontal surface high pressure system builds into the CWA on Saturday morning, winds will shift to a more northerly orientation. This will bring an end to any orographically-enhanced post-frontal rain chances, and a much cooler/drier continental airmass will move into the region in the wake of the precipitation. Highs will struggle to get much warmer than the 50s, and dewpoints will plummet into the 30s on Saturday afternoon. Diurnal mixing should work to erode any lingering cloud cover by sunset, which should set the stage for efficient radiational cooling overnight. NBM ensemble data resolves a 60-90% chance of temperatures dropping below 36 degrees across most of the JKL CWA overnight. The most sheltered and shaded valleys could make a run at the 32 degree mark, but the probability of occurrence drops to below 40% at this threshold. As a reminder, the criteria for a Frost Advisory is defined as minimum shelter forecast temperatures between 33 and 36 degrees Fahrenheit during the growing season, on nights with good radiational cooling conditions. Saturday night is poised to meet this criteria, so agricultural interests and recreational gardeners are encouraged to monitor for potential product issuances as the time approaches. Temperatures will be slow to make a full recovery back above the 70 degree mark next week, although a gradual warm-up is expected. The postfrontal high should shift east on Sunday as the mid/upper level trough axis aloft swings through New England. Antecedent forecast thinking is that a building ridge will allow temperatures to moderate back into the 60s under fair skies by early next week. However, some of the more recent pieces of guidance (namely members of the Euro ensemble) are developing a cut-off low over the Carolinas in this time frame. That feature could block the eastward propagation of that ridging, and it would cause temperatures to stay on the lower side of the forecast envelope early next week. Nevertheless, fog should become favored over frost in the valleys at night as temperatures warm. This is typical for autumn in Eastern Kentucky, and next week's forecast features temperatures much closer to normal than what we are experiencing at the present moment. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 844 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026 Showers were affecting portions of the JKL forecast area at the start of the period, especially moving in from the west. The precipitation is associated with a stalled frontal boundary over the area. Conditions varied widely from VLIFR to VFR. The most widespread poor conditions were near/north of I-64, and the most widespread good conditions were near the TN border. Showers will occur at times near the front today, but the front will head back north as a warm front late today and tonight, taking precip with it. As the front heads north, overall improvement in conditions is forecast across the area. Mainly VFR is expected to have returned area wide by early this evening, and then lasting into the night. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...MARCUS/HAL AVIATION...HAL  236 FXUS66 KMTR 151252 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 552 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Above normal temperatures continue into the weekend before a cooling trend begins Sunday into next week - Near critical fire weather conditions due to moderate flow and very dry conditions across the higher elevations Thursday and Friday - Potential for light rain and breezy onshore winds early to mid next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 (Tonight through Friday) Near critical fire weather conditions continue across the higher elevations, particularly the North Bay Interior Mountains, through Friday. A positively tilted upper level ridge remains over Oregon and Northern/Central California while a cut-off low lingers over Southern California. This setup promotes light to moderate offshore winds across the region with the potential for more moderate to gusty offshore winds across the higher elevations. Model guidance keeps gusts across the elevated terrain peaking between 20 to 30 mph with locally stronger gusts possible across the highest peaks (e.g. Mt. St. Helena). The GFS and HRRR are both in agreement that the SFO- WMC gradient will peak around -9 mb Thursday morning and -10 mb Thursday night into Friday. The NAM continues to be an outlier and suggests the gradient could peak around -14 mb but looking closer into their forecast wind gusts still keeps gusts in a similar, but slightly stronger range, of 25 to 35 mph. Very dry conditions are expected across the higher elevations during both the daytime and overnight hours. Much of the region will see daytime RH in the 10s to 20s with poor to very poor overnight recoveries with the worst recoveries across the higher elevations. Given the very dry conditions and potential for offshore winds, any spark has the potential to start a fire. Remember, one less spark one less wildfire. Warmer temperatures continue Thursday and Friday with highs in the 80s to low 90s on Thursday and upper 80s to 90s on Friday. Patchy Moderate HeatRisk is expected on Thursday but becomes more widespread across urban areas on Friday. If you are outdoors during peak heating, make sure you are drinking plenty of water and taking frequent breaks in the shade. The marine layer remains mixed out through the short term due to the presence of the ridge so expect && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday) Offshore winds decrease by Friday afternoon/evening as upper level ridging weakens and broad troughing returns to the region. High temperatures Saturday will still be warm in the 80s to low 90s but cooler temperatures return Sunday into next week. By Sunday, broad troughing returns to the region with temperatures cooling into the 70s to low 80s. Fall weather returns in force next week as we get our first potential rainmaker of the season. This low pressure system looks to originate from the Gulf of Alaska and will bring much cooler, moister air into the region as the surface low weakens and moves into California next week. Highs will be seasonal to below normal in the 60s to low 70s across the interior and upper 50s to low 60s along the coast. Rain chances increase Tuesday through late week with wetting rains (>0.10") likely across the Central Coast and potentially Santa Cruz County/the South Bay. Light rain is possible across the rest of the Bay Area but does not look to meet wetting rain criteria at this time. Guidance is showing a low (<10%) chance of thunderstorms next week so that will be something to keep an eye on as this event gets closer in time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 959 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Generally VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period, with some high resolution models depicting patchy coastal stratus developing tonight. Low confidence in HAF getting fog and low stratus. If it does happen, the most likely period for development would be 08-11Z before offshore winds mix out the lower layers. Light winds persist overnight, before a moderate offshore push in the interior Thursday morning, balanced by a gentle onshore flow developing in the afternoon. Vicinity of SFO... VFR at the terminal through the TAF period. Light winds overnight will turn offshore Thursday morning before moderate northwest flow resumes in the afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through the TAF period. Light to gentle offshore winds persist overnight into Thursday morning before the moderate northwest flow resumes afternoon. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 547 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Satellite imagery shows mainly clear skies across the region. There are a few ribbons of stratus along the North Bay coastline, while the patch that was near the San Francisco Peninsula is falling apart. Look for VFR conditions at the terminals through the TAF cycle and offshore winds this morning and yet again tonight. Vicinity of SFO...Onshore flow is expected for a few more hours which will be followed by a stint of weak offshore winds. By the early afternoon, onshore winds of 10-15kt return and then decrease after sunset. Offshore winds are expected Thursday morning. VFR conditions are expected during the TAF cycle. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Offshore winds are expected for through the morning with onshore winds by late morning or early afternoon. Onshore flow should continue through the evening, before another round of offshore winds returns late evening and into early Friday morning. VFR conditions will prevail. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 243 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Moderate seas continue across the outer waters, while the inner waters see slight to moderate seas through Friday. During this time frame, gentle to fresh northerly breezes continue. Moderate to fresh northerly winds return for the weekend, which will be accompanied with rough seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 547 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A Fire Weather Watch was issued for the North Bay Interior Mountains and will go into effect later this evening and run through Friday morning. This is due to moderate offshore winds very dry with very poor overnight humidity recoveries only reaching 14 to 24 percent. Rapid fire spread is possible given the combination of gusty northerly winds and very dry overnight conditions. Elsewhere in the Bay Area, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected for the higher elevations late tonight through Friday morning. Dry conditions, poor overnight RH recovery, combined with the breezy winds, warmer weather, and available fuels leads to the elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Fire Weather Watch from this evening through Friday morning for CAZ504. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...KR MARINE...KR Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea