071 FXUS63 KDDC 151002 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 502 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...Updated Aviation/Key Messages... .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong north winds and much cooler temperatures Thursday. - Wind chills in the 20s Friday morning. North winds diminishing Friday with cool temperatures. - First widespread frost and freeze of the fall season is expected Saturday morning, with temperatures in the 20s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 116 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Mid-upper level trough that has been supplying the area with dreary weather conditions will depart later this morning and into this afternoon. Any lingering rain, storms, and fog will diminish from southwest to northeast late this morning with clearing skies and breezy conditions into the later afternoon. Tonight has the potential to bring some frost and perhaps a freeze. However, uncertainty remains with the level of winds that could limit those impacts, so held off on any headlines for now. Frost/Freeze headlines will be near certain Friday night into Saturday morning as widespread upper 20s to low 30s are expected across nearly all of western and central Kansas. With light winds and clear skies, freeze and frost are highly likely. This is shaping up to be a widespread issue for plants, so precautions should be started to protect any most vulnerable crops and plants. A warming trend will commence for the latter half of the weekend and into next week as 850 mb temperature anomalies go back to above average per global models. As far as the next chance of any precipitation is concerned, only low POPs (30-40%) are in the forecast Wednesday and Thursday, but varying patterns are evident among the globals, putting low confidence in the longer range. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 502 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Radar imagery at 10z Thu showed remaining scattered rain showers in the vicinity of HYS, which will end over the next few hours. Widespread IFR/MVFR stratus will persist through this morning, with ceilings gradually improving to VFR through this afternoon. Sky will rapidly clear around 00z Fri, as strong high pressure and strong subsidence arrive. VFR/SKC is expected daylight Friday. Strong north winds will impact all airports after 15z Thu, gusting 30-35 kts, strongest at GCK/LBL. Northwest winds will diminish somewhat after 00z Fri, but remain elevated through 12z Fri. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bennett AVIATION...Turner KEY MESSAGES...Turner  185 FXUS62 KFFC 151005 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 605 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New 12Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions will prevail through the next 7 days with temperatures warming to well above normal today and tomorrow. - A strong cold front will bring noticeably cooler conditions and gusty winds this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 442 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 One final day of summer expected again today and tomorrow before we get a significant change in air mass. Temperatures will rise into the upper 80s by early afternoon, with NW winds keeping humidity down. Temps will fall into the low 60s tonight before a nearly identical high temp is expected tomorrow. With high pressure settled over the area, winds continue to be on the light side at less than 5 mph. Some patchy fog this morning is expected to burn off by 10am. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 442 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Things will finally feel much more Fall-like to open the long term forecast period Friday night into Saturday morning as a sharp cold front will rapidly progress across the CWA. Gusty NW winds (likely gusts near/over 30 mph at times) will transition toward the north and northeast on Saturday as surface high pressure slips across the Mid-Atlantic. This frontal passage continues to look very dry with any isolated sprinkles/brief showers largely relegated to north Georgia, though these will be very limited in nature. By Saturday morning, temperatures will have fallen into the 40s across a good bit of north Georgia, a drop of nearly 40 degrees in some areas from Friday highs. Expect below-normal temperatures to persist through the weekend with highs mainly in the 60s each day and lows in the 40s for most (some 30s in the mountains) through Monday. A warming trend will then be underway by next week as midlevel ridging builds eastward with temperatures near to slightly above normal by midweek. Still, no notable rain chances are in the foreseeable future as surface high pressure will continue to build southwestward from New England through the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 601 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR through the TAF forecast with light west winds gradually becoming southwest after 16Z at 5kts or less. Winds begin to pick up tomorrow after 17Z. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... High on all elements. Vaughn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 89 63 85 52 / 0 0 0 10 Atlanta 88 65 84 52 / 0 0 0 10 Blairsville 85 60 79 43 / 0 0 20 10 Cartersville 89 62 84 48 / 0 0 10 10 Columbus 90 63 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 88 64 83 51 / 0 0 0 10 Macon 90 63 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 89 61 84 47 / 0 0 10 10 Peachtree City 89 62 85 49 / 0 0 0 10 Vidalia 88 65 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vaughn LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...Vaughn  061 FXUS62 KILM 151015 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 615 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation section updated for 12Z TAF issuance. As of 3 AM EDT... Guidance continues to show an increasing potential for some spotty showers with a passing cold front on Saturday, as well as a higher likelihood of gale conditions over the waters this weekend. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry forecast dominates through Friday, with temperatures nearing record highs each day. 2) Most significant cooldown of the season so far expected this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry forecast dominates through Friday, with temperatures nearing record highs each day. Latest surface analysis shows an elongated surface high that stretches from the Gulf coast through the coastal Carolinas. This surface ridge is associated with an upr-level ridge that's tucked slightly more to the west along the Gulf coast from TX to the FL panhandle. Widespread subsidence keeps the forecast dry through Friday. 500 mb heights hang around 592-594 dam, which easily rank in climatological maximums in this area, per SPC Sounding Climatology for KCHS, KMHX, and KHAT. This means very unseasonably warm temperatures that look a lot more like mid- to-late June than mid-October. Widespread highs in the upper 80s to near 90 inland and mid 80s at the coast expected today and Friday. Record-tying or record-breaking high temperatures are in play here, especially today. Please see Climate section below for more info. KEY MESSAGE 2...Most significant cooldown of the season so far expected this weekend. A strong cold front is still slated to move through the area Fri night into early Sat, ushering in the coolest air of autumn thus far. Overall, guidance continues to show an overall lack of moisture with this front, but chances of showers were nudged up slightly to 40-50% over much of the area daytime Sat. There is still a lot of uncertainty over whether a coastal low develops over the weekend, but regardless there is still a good chance for anafrontal showers following the cold front passage while the upr-level trough axis remains just off to the west. Dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 Fri evening will drop through Sat down into the 50s and even some 40s by late Sat. This drying trend will continue into Sat night with gusty northerly winds allowing dewpoints to bottom out early Sun in the 30s to around 40 close to the coast. Plenty of CAA will bring temps down quite a few degrees below normal Sat into Sun. Temps Sat aftn will resemble overnight temps just 12 hrs before, but the stiff northerly winds will make it feel even cooler. Expect overnight lows Sat night in the 40s inland to near 50 at the coast. Overall, fall-like weather will arrive Sat with a gradual warming through early next week. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High confidence in VFR through tonight. Confidence remains low regarding the potential for MVFR visibility in ground fog late tonight and Friday morning. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR outside of low to moderate confidence in patchy fog late tonight. Northerly winds behind a cold front Friday night could gust over 30 knots into the day Saturday. There is also low to moderate confidence in MVFR to IFR ceilings near the coast over the weekend, should a coastal low develop just offshore, but guidance continues to have a lot of spread on this feature. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions continue through at least daytime Friday with sfc high pressure offshore. Pattern starts to change late Friday, as gradient winds increase ahead of a cold front. Front moves through overnight Friday night, allowing the winds to quickly veer to the N, gradually veering even more to the NNE through the day Saturday into Sunday. Seas will ramp up in increasing winds ahead of the front and will peak late Saturday night into Sunday, ranging from 4-8 ft over the coastal waters out 20 nm, to 8-12 ft over the offshore waters out 60 nm. At least Small Craft Advisory conditions are a slam dunk Saturday morning through early next week. Confidence in eventually needing a Gale Warning is increasing as well, with a moderate to high likelihood of gusts up to 35-40 kt Saturday night and Sunday with a strong pressure gradient persisting over the local waters between strong high pressure inland and low pressure well offshore. && .CLIMATE... Current forecast vs. records: Thursday, October 15: - Wilmington, NC (KILM): 89F (88F in 1985) - North Myrtle Beach, SC (KCRE): 84F (85F in 2008) - Florence, SC (KFLO): 90F (89F in 2021 and 1985) - Lumberton, NC (KLBT): 90F (91F in 1919) Friday, October 16: - Wilmington, NC (KILM): 86F (87F in 2021, 2018, and 1975) - North Myrtle Beach, SC (KCRE): 82F (88F in 1990) - Florence, SC (KFLO): 87F (91F in 2021) - Lumberton, NC (KLBT): 87F (92F in 1925) && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...MAS/21 KEY MESSAGES...ILM DISCUSSION...ILM AVIATION...21 MARINE...MAS  362 FXUS66 KPDT 151029 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 329 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dry and warm conditions through the end of the week 2. Breezy conditions through the Grande Ronde Valley Friday with light mountain precipitation. 3. Breezy through the wind prone areas Saturday && .DISCUSSION... Current nighttime satellite is showing clear skies over the region. This will allow for cooler overnight temperatures. Temperatures will be in the upper 20s to low 30s across portions of central OR and the eastern mountains in locations like La Pine and Seneca. The Basin, Gorge, foothills and Yakima/Kittitas Valleys will see temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s. Deterministic models are in firm agreement with the upper level ridge remaining over the area through Friday afternoon. Temperatures will peak on Friday with in office calculations showing temperatures to be nearly 15-20 degrees above seasonal normal. Looking at the ensemble guidance, 80-90% of the HREF raw ensembles show temperatures to be in the low to mid 70s through the Basin, foothills, Gorge and Yakima/Kittitas Valleys while central OR and the John Day Basin will see upper 70s with some possible 80s mixed in. Models show that Friday will begin to see the synoptic transition of the upper level ridge moving east and an upper level trough building into the region from the northwest. As the ridge exits the area, a surface high will form in Treasure Valley while a weak surface low will form over the Columbia Basin. This is the perfect synoptic set up for easterly breezy winds through the Grande Ronde Valley. Winds through the area are expected to begin to pick after midnight reaching its peak after 11 AM and persisting through 5 PM. HREF raw ensembles show sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph with some isolated 40 mph gusts with 80-90% agreement. Saturday models show the upper level trough beginning to dig into the PacNW. As the leading edge of the trough wedges itself against the Cascades, the pressure gradients begin to tighten leading to breezy conditions through the typical winds prone gap areas. Looking at the NBM raw ensembles, 60-80% are in agreement that the Kittitas Valley will see winds between 20-25 mph sustained winds with gusts of 30-35 mph. The Gorge will see 15-20 mph sustained winds and gusts of 25-30 mph. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. Winds will be generally light through the period with only DLS seeing winds near 9 kts after 21Z. Clear skies will also persist through the period. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 69 38 74 43 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 69 44 75 50 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 72 36 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 70 42 69 43 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 70 38 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 67 37 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 75 33 79 35 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 70 40 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 75 36 76 38 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 74 44 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...90 AVIATION...90  540 FXUS62 KCAE 151032 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 632 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Guidance showing increasing potential for spotty showers with the cold front this weekend. Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Near-record warmth through Friday. - 2. A strong cold front is forecast to push through the region Friday night, ushering in cooler weather this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Near-record warmth through Friday. Southerly to southwesterly flow will continue to promote warm air transport into the region through Friday. An upper-level ridge sits over the southeast with the LREF and NAEFS both showing 500mb heights at the 99th percentile. Highs are expected to climb into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees through Friday, potentially approaching record levels each day. Clear skies will promote efficient radiational cooling each night, allowing lows to drop into the mid-50s to low 60s. PWATs are generally around average for this time of year as dry conditions persist leading to minimal humidity and no heat indices. Key Message 2: A strong cold front is forecast to push through the region Friday night, ushering in cooler weather this weekend. Guidance remains in good agreement that a strong cold front will sweep across the Southeast this weekend, ushering in a much cooler and drier airmass. A developing trough currently over the Canadian Prairies will dig southeastward and deepen across the central US over the next 2 days, pushing the front eastward along with it. Latest models have started to trend to a solution showing more energy and activity impacting the Eastern US, rather than a dry frontal passage previously discussed. In particular, guidance hints at the trough popping off a potential coastal storm later this weekend. With this in mind, rain chances could increase as trends have shifted toward a more robust area of energy closer to the Carolinas. However, significant cold air advection could still limit the shower development across the FA. Enhanced winds are possible behind the front, with decent mixing potentially supporting peak gusts of 25-35 mph. Following several days of near-record highs, a dramatic temperature drop of 20-25F is expected behind the front. Well- below normal highs in the 60s are anticipated Saturday and Sunday, with temperatures rebounding a bit into the low to mid-70s by next week. However, if this system continues to linger offshore, any significant warmup could be delayed as cooler air will continue to funnel into the region. Chilly overnight temps are also expected this weekend as lower dew points promote efficient cooling, allowing lows to drop into the 40s. A few sheltered locations across the northern counties near the North Carolina border could dip into the upper 30s, though confidence at this time is too low to mention any potential frost. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR expected outside of potential early morning patchy fog. High pressure and upper ridging will continue to promote VFR conditions at the terminals over the next twenty-four hours. However, similar to previous days, some brief sunrise morning fog at our fog-prone sites of AGS/OGB is possible and along the rivers. A TEMPO group has been added between 9-12z for potential mifg and lowered vsby. More of the same continues on Thursday as light winds and clear/dry conditions continue with winds generally out of the southwest, but varying from south to west. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A front will move across the area late Friday into Saturday. Although precipitation is unlikely, breezy W/SW winds are expected Friday shifting to a northerly direction on Saturday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ND AVIATION...42  605 FXUS62 KGSP 151035 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 635 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated the aviation discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Near record high temperatures linger through Friday before a strong cold front crosses the region Friday afternoon/evening. Gusty winds are expected across the higher elevations along and behind the front, but confidence in Advisory level wind gusts is low. 2. Behind the cold front, temperatures will drop below normal through the weekend. Low temperatures across the mountains will be cold enough for frost and could drop below freezing in some places early Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Near record high temperatures linger through Friday before a strong cold front crosses the region Friday afternoon/evening. Gusty winds are expected across the higher elevations along and behind the front, but confidence in Advisory level wind gusts is low. An upper level anticyclone will move across the region overnight and off the Carolina Coast by the end of the day. Meanwhile, a mid/upper trof will continue to amplify over the nrn Plains/upper Midwest as a strong short wave diving out of the Canadian Plains incorporates some of the upper energy lifting out from the Rockies. This will support one more seasonally hot day across the region with fcst high temps getting back up into record territory. Changes will be in progress by the time Friday gets here with the upper anticyclone well offshore and the upper trof digging sharply across the Midwest/lower OH Valley region. The amplifying pattern will drive a cold front toward the fcst area, but it probably won't get here before temps have a chance to climb well into the 80s once more. This might not be warm enough to reach records, especially over the mtns, but it will still be well above normal. The cold front is expected to cross the region late Friday into early Saturday morning, with fairly strong winds at 850 mb. At this time, any wind gusts that would approach Advisory criteria look to be confined to the peaks above 5K feet. An Advisory is not anticipated at this time. Moisture return will be relatively poor as the Gulf is mostly closed off, but that won't stop upslope shower activity behind the front as the low level flow comes around to NW. A few snowflakes are possible at the summit of Mt Mitchell early Saturday. The latest NBM seems to slow down the front a bit and shows low level moisture lingering through the middle part of the day, which results in a small precip prob over the western Piedmont Saturday morning. Strong cold advection aloft should also play a role by making lapse rates steeper and allowing for some weak shallow buoyancy, so isolated showers will be possible. Think precip amounts will be minimal. Key message 2: Behind the cold front, temperatures will drop below normal through the weekend. Low temperatures across the mountains will be cold enough for frost and could drop below freezing in some places early Sunday morning. The strong cold front is expected to bring in the first true autumn continental air mass as high pressure builds in Saturday and then lingers through Monday, with temperatures forecast to be at least 10 degrees below normal. You're going to notice it...as temperatures Saturday afternoon are expected to be 20 to 25 degrees cooler than Friday. The slight delay in frontal passage all but negates the potential for an advective freeze across portions of the mountains Saturday morning. The chances for widespread frosty/localized freezing temperatures are much greater Saturday night and again Sunday night as the center of the surface high pressure and associated ridge settle over the mountains and provide for good radiational cooling. The situation looks favorable for widespread frost across the mtns, while the northern mountains have a good chance of getting down to freezing. Climatologically, this is only about a week late. Meanwhile, east of the mtns, don't be too suprised if patches of frost develop over the nrn foothills and northwest Piedmont. We often underforecast the frost potential in the first cool autumn air mass. There will be some frost potential again Sunday night. As heights begin to rise and the surface ridge gradually weakens over the Eastern Seaboard, temperatures begin to moderate, but remain below normal Monday/Mon night, further warming to right around climo by the middle of next week. Conditions will remain dry/precip free as the air mass remains seasonably dry. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Mountain valley and lake/river fog in place this morning causing a wide variety in conditions at KAVL/KAND. This should dissipate by 14Z with VFR into the evening with cirrus and some high based stratocu. Mountain valley, and possibly lake/river, fog returns overnight. Light and variable wind becomes S to SW this afternoon continuing into the evening. Outlook: Mainly dry, generally VFR conditions are expected to continue thru early next week, outside of the potential for mtn valley fog and low stratus. A robust cold front could bring sct showers and associated restrictions to the mtns Friday aftn and the entire area Friday night and Saturday. Gusty winds are expected ahead of the front on Friday and behind the front Friday night/Saturday. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS FOR 10-15 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 86 1897 52 2002 60 2017 27 1907 1970 1928 KCLT 88 1985 53 2009 66 1985 30 2006 KGSP 86 1985 53 2002 65 1985 31 1907 1941 1970 RECORDS FOR 10-16 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 1897 49 1954 63 1928 29 1939 KCLT 87 1925 58 1937 68 1947 35 1939 1925 KGSP 85 1935 53 1937 67 1925 32 1907 1911 1892 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ PM/RWH  588 FXUS63 KOAX 151034 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 534 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing chances for showers and storms tonight, peaking at 90%-100% through the morning. - Strong northerly winds gusting 40 to 50mph move in Friday after midnight through the morning weakening Friday afternoon. - Frost continues to look likely late Friday night into Saturday morning with calm winds and clear skies. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1035 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Cloudy skies across the region this evening with a few showers over northeast Nebraska. These showers have developed along a weak boundary stretching all the way northwest toward Rapid City. These will continue to move north-northeast. The system we are watching more closely is a strong upper-level trough over Colorado. This will bring the showers from western Kansas northeast into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa overnight as the closed low weakens and gets absorbed into a stronger upper- level wave dropping south out of Alberta/Saskatchewan. Rainfall will continue across our area through Thursday morning ending through the afternoon as strengthening northerly winds bring in dry air. Thursday night into early Friday we are monitoring the potential for strong winds gusting 40 to 50 mph. As the wave moving out of Canada phases with the decaying system over the Northern Plains, we see the ridge over the West Coast try and advance. This leads to strengthening of the pressure gradient over the Great Plains between these two systems. A broad swath of strong northerly winds develops over the region including eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. NBM guidance shows around a 60% chance of winds gusting above 45 mph over northeast Nebraska Friday morning. Could start as early as 3am, but more likely toward 6AM through 11am. Winds weaken going into Friday afternoon as the trough shifts eastward and the gradient starts to relax, though gusty winds will likely continue until around 6pm. With winds becoming calm, clear skies, and a much cooler Canadian air mass in place, conditions will be ideal for strong radiational cooling overnight Friday into early Saturday. We expect temperatures to fall into the low 30s with a fairly widespread risk for frost. Only spots that might not get cool enough for frost may be in our more urban areas of Omaha, Council Bluffs, and Lincoln. As the ridge continues to trek eastward across the central CONUS over the weekend, we'll see southwesterly flow move back in Saturday trending temperatures warmer over the weekend into next week. Meanwhile, the upper-level pattern remains active. A weak disturbance moves through on Monday, though there won't be enough moisture for more than an increase in cloud cover through the day. A stronger trough deepens along the West Coast early next week. This system will strengthen southwest flow as it approaches midweek bringing temperatures back into the low-to- mid 70s for highs on Tuesday and Wednesday. This system brings our next chances for showers and storms Wednesday-Friday next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 530 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 MVFR to IFR conditions will prevail through morning and early afternoon, as showers continue to move through the region. While a few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out, widespread storms are not expected. Northerly winds will increase this afternoon and evening as showers move out. Expect speeds of 15 to 20 kts, with gusts up to 35 kts possible. Lower ceilings and visibilities are expected to improve to VFR by around 00Z this evening. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...KG  587 FXUS63 KTOP 151034 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 534 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dreary today with mostly cloudy skies and rain/drizzle - Much cooler and drier air moves in behind today's cold front for Friday and Saturday. Frost/freeze conditions appear likely Saturday morning. - Turning warmer Sunday into the middle of next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A closed mid-level low is advancing east across Colorado early this morning as another potent wave dives southeast across southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba into the Northern Plains. Energy lifting northeast ahead of the aforementioned low has generated another swath of rain and drizzle across the area. Limited instability has kept rainfall rates low, generally 0.25" per hour or less, and expect this to remain the case. Slightly higher rainfall rates and intermittent lightning have been observed across southeast Kansas. This will lift towards Anderson County over the next hour or two. Will hold onto the Flood Watch for now, but the overall potential for flooding is low and anticipate being able to cancel the Flood Watch early. Continued lift from the approaching mid-level low will lead to periodic rain and/or drizzle for much of the day today. The northern stream wave absorbs the closed low and pushes a cold front through the area by this evening. Gusty northwest winds behind the front usher in cooler and drier air for Friday and Saturday. CAA from breezy north winds and cloud cover will keep highs in the 50s on Friday! Model soundings show steep low-level lapse rates leading to weak instability; REFS and HREF mean for MUCAPE is ~25 J/kg. As a result, there is the potential for a couple of pop-up showers Friday afternoon and evening, which could mix down gustier winds aloft. The most likely area for this looks to be east into Missouri, so have kept a dry forecast for now. A strong Canadian high pressure slides overhead Friday night into Saturday morning. Light winds and clearing skies set the stage for the first frost/freeze of the season with lows forecast to be in the low to mid 30s. Areas north of Interstate 70 continue to have the highest likelihood of falling to or below freezing; NBM probabilities of reaching freezing are 40- 65% in this area. Will likely need headlines frost/freeze headlines, but uncertainty remains in exact areas of freeze vs frost. The surface high moves east through the day Saturday, allowing southerly low-level flow to return and a warming trend to ensue early next week. Highs will be near-normal by Sunday and back into the 70s Monday through the middle of next week. Guidance is consistent in a shortwave ejecting across the Plains on Monday, but dry low-levels favor this wave passing through dry. Better precipitation chances come Wednesday-Thursday of next week as flow becomes southwesterly ahead of a western US trough, although variability among guidance is high. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 534 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 IFR/LIFR cigs with intermittent reduction in VSBY continues through the morning. Showers look to be more scattered in nature through the day, have input VCSH for most of the daylight hours. Slow improvement is expected this afternoon/evening with a cold front moving through and winds becoming gusty from the northwest. Cigs eventually lift to VFR, but guidance varies in timing. Input best guess on timing, but refinement may be needed. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Flanagan AVIATION...Flanagan  574 FXUS64 KHUN 151033 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 533 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 931 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Above normal temperatures are forecast Thursday with more Fall-like weather expected by the weekend. - Minor to Moderate (Level 2/4) heat impacts may be observed Thursday across portions of the Tennessee Valley. && .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High pressure will continue to drift east through the TN Valley both at the surface and aloft through the day today. On the western edge of high pressure, return flow will continue today allowing for another unseasonably warm day. The current NBM high temp forecast would again be recording breaking or tying at both HSV and MSL with todays high temp records being 88 and 91 respectively. Given that we have over preformed in this pattern the last two days, persistence forecast gives us a high chance of meeting these records again today. With the unseasonable heat, make sure to practice proper heat safety for at least once more hot fall day before relief makes its way in tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Saturday) Issued at 931 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The aforementioned cold front will shift southeastward into the area Friday ahead of an upper level trough swinging through the southeast U.S. While previous forecasts remain dry, CAMs have recently trended toward bringing low chances of rainfall along the frontal boundary Friday afternoon. A 10-20% chance of rain was added with this package update for portions of N AL and southern middle TN. No severe weather is anticipated due to lack of instability. Accompanying the front, a 50 kt LLJ will mix down and allow gusty winds up to 20-30 mph throughout the late afternoon into Saturday. Be sure to secure any loose, outdoor items (including holiday decorations) by Friday afternoon. Saturday, post-frontal conditions will remain breezy (as mentioned) but much cooler. Highs are forecast to remain in the 60s, which is 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year. An even colder night is in store for us Saturday night into Sunday- read more on this in the long term below. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 931 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 High pressure at the surface by Sat night should be situated over the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. This cold anticyclone bringing a N-NE flow across the greater Tennessee Valley will bring the coldest air of the season thus far. Night time lows by Sun morning should range from the upper 30s our southern Middle Tennessee counties to the low/mid 40s near large bodies of water. The models have been showing mainly 38 degrees over Lincoln and Moore counties. Under clear skies and light winds, we cannot rule out temperatures falling another couple of degrees or so, which would bring a frost risk. This is something we will monitor. The start of a new week should feature sunny skies with high temperatures a bit warmer than they were Sat, rising into the mid and upper 60s. Light winds in the morning should become E-SE in the afternoon. Not as cold Sun night with lows in the low/mid 40s. A slow warming trend is expected for the start of the new work week. Under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, highs Mon should rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s, with lows Mon night mid 40s to around 50. The moderation in temperatures continues into the midweek. Under partly cloudy skies, highs on Tue should get close to seasonable norms into the low/mid 70s, and into the mid 70s to around 80 Wed. Lows Tue night again should range from the mid 40s to around 50. Dry weather should continue into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 533 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through the duration of the TAF period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RAD SHORT TERM....HC LONG TERM....RSB AVIATION...RAD  682 FXUS64 KMRX 151037 AAA AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 637 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 635 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Another hot day today with record highs possible. - A few showers possible north today, with more showers expected Friday afternoon through evening. - Frost is possible Saturday night, and to a lesser extent on Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 In the upper levels, a ridge remains centered over the Southeast. At the surface, a stalling boundary is stretched over Kentucky and west Tennessee. Currently, showers and storms are present upstream along the aforementioned boundary. CAMs have this line dissipating before or as it moves into our region but a few stray showers are possible mainly near the Upper Cumberland Plateau and Southwest Virginia. Today, the front will lift north but a few showers will be possible mainly in Southwest Virginia. Today will be hot again with highs in the 80s. All three climate sites are forecast to break or tie the record high today. CHA and TRI broke their record highs yesterday (Wed). Record highs Today: Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 10-15 85(1950) 87(1897) 83(1971) 83(2021) Thursday night, a deep trough will move into the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley by afternoon. The surface low will move through the Great Lakes and into New England bringing a cold front through the Tennessee Valley in the late afternoon or early evening hours on Friday. Winds will be gusty Friday afternoon and evening with gusts up to 30 mph likely at times. The best chance for showers will be Southwest Virginia, Northeast Tennessee and along the East Tennessee mountains and foothills in the late afternoon and evening hours. Thunder chances will be low with low instability expected. The weekend will be dry and much cooler with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s Saturday. Only slightly warmer on Sunday with highs in the mid 60s. Temperatures will be cold enough for frost on Saturday and Sunday nights mainly in Southwest Virginia, Northeast Tennessee and the higher elevations. Early next week will be dry with highs warming into the 70s by Tuesday as ridging and high pressure dominate the Southeast. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 No aviation impacts this period. Broken VFR cigs will continue through the morning at TYS and TRI, possibly going scattered in the afternoon. CHA will remain SKC. Winds will be light from the SW today, and calm tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 63 82 50 / 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 66 82 50 / 0 0 40 50 Oak Ridge, TN 87 63 81 48 / 10 0 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 62 80 47 / 10 0 70 80 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...McD AVIATION...DGS  146 FXUS61 KBGM 151046 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 646 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Temperatures slightly warmer Friday night and winds slightly lower Saturday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strengthening low passes north of the region Friday into Saturday. 2) High pressure and southwest flow will lead to a gradual warm up through next week after a chilly weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 High pressure will give way to an approaching warm front which should push through the region tonight as a low pressure system tracks into the Great Lakes. Clouds will be on the increase today with most spots getting close to 60 for highs. Tonight with the development of a LLJ and warm frontal passage temperatures may not fall much after the early evening hours or even slightly rise toward sunrise. Moisture lifted along the warm front looks sufficient enough for a round of showers as well heading toward daybreak Friday. Overall, the warm sector looks to be in our region slightly longer on Friday now. This should allow for a break in the showers for a time and for high temperatures to make a run at 70 for most of the region. Hires models are showing some slight CAPE advecting into NEPA and perhaps the Southern Tier of NY as well. Some thunder was added to the forecast ahead of the cold front with the final push of showers moving through the region. A few stronger wind gusts may be able to reach the ground with any thunderstorm. Rainfall looks to max out around an inch being aided by terrain in Oneida county with general amounts around half an inch. Temperatures drop sharply Friday night but are trending slightly warmer. With the northerly to northwesterly flow lingering moisture from the Great Lakes should be sufficient enough for lingering clouds and spotty rain showers and or snow flurries. Temperatures look to be stuck in the 30's and 40's Saturday with a sharp but brief cold shot. KEY MESSAGE 2 High pressure builds into the region early next week. Winds have trended lighter Saturday night and with clear skies. Temperatures still are indicated to fall below freezing for most of the area with the growing season still ongoing in Lackawanna and Luzerne counties. A fairly tranquil period is expected with high pressure over the region early next week with weak southwesterly flow allowing for a warmup. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Clouds will start to diminish in coverage this morning, and cloud base heights will start to increase, resulting in VFR flight conditions for all terminals by the late morning and early afternoon. Clouds will start to increase later in the day ahead of the next system. As the next system approaches in the last third of the 12z TAF period, conditions will start deteriorating after 03z, and will likely continue getting worse through the night. Outlook... Thursday night Friday...Low pressure system passing by, increasing winds and rain will lead to restrictions. Potential for LLWS will increase for the second half of Thursday night. Saturday...Lake effect cloud cover keeps cig restrictions likely for all terminals but AVP. Early morning snow showers possible at ITH and BGM. Sunday into Monday...High pressure returns with mostly VFR conditions expected. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWG AVIATION...KL  150 FXUS63 KGRR 151046 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 646 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Becoming wet, windy, and colder through Friday - Extended dry period with moderating temperatures next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Becoming wet, windy, and colder through Friday Everything remains on track for the evolution of our weather from today through Friday evening, with no major changes noted at this time. Plenty of clouds remain from the stratocumulus clouds that moved overhead on Wednesday. There are some breaks in this, but high clouds are widespread, and the holes in the lower clouds are filling in. We will see deep moisture advect over the area this afternoon as the strengthening low level jet associated ahead of the upper wave and developing sfc low will approach late this afternoon. It is with this feature that we will see the most widespread rain with this entire system. The sliver of instability (elevated in nature based between 850 and 700 mb) that may affect the I-94 corridor would also be maximized at that time. All of this would be through just before 06z when the low level jet peels away and the occluded front moves through. The next wave of showers will then come right ahead of the secondary cold front/cold conveyor belt that will surge in from the NW. This comes through centered around 12z Friday give or take a couple of hours depending on the northern or southern portion of the forecast area. This is associated at the leading edge of the upper trough and cyclonic flow arriving. The passage of these features will ultimately shift the mean low level flow to become from the NNE. Lake effect rain showers will be likely initially from the NW, and will shift offshore by late afternoon. It is from mid morning until the wind shifts offshore when the best chance of lake induced thunder will be possible with just short of 1,000 J/kg of CAPE available. Wind will be another aspect of this system. Right now, it looks like most places will see gusts to around 40 mph Friday. May just be short of advisory criteria inland, where instability will be a bit less than over the warmer waters. A few showers will remain possible inland through the daylight hours, and a few may linger into mid-evening. It will be shortly after 00z Saturday the the upper trough moves out, and the flow becomes anti-cyclonic. - Extended dry period with moderating temperatures next week Strong subsidence will build in quickly behind the departure of the upper trough by Saturday morning. The upper air pattern over the CONUS then transitions to a much more amplified trough/ridge/trough pattern from the West Coast to East Coast in almost an Omega block. The strong upper trough on Friday will close off along the East Coast, and strong energy moves toward the West Coast from the Pacific. This will place Michigan in between under the influence of the strong ridge. This means plenty of dry weather, with sunny days and cool nights. There will be attempts of short waves trying to flatten the ridge. It seems that the ridge should remain intact through at least mid-week. Later in the week, there have been indications that there may be a trough that tries to close off overhead next Thursday. Way too much uncertainty seven days out to try to pin down the details. Generally speaking, we will see above average temperatures, and below average precipitation. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 646 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 All of the terminals have seen the low clouds move overhead as expected this morning. These high clouds are right near the VFR/MVFR threshold, give or take a couple of hundred feet higher or lower. We do expect that ceilings will drop slightly if anything. There may be a few breaks, but would expect cloud cover to dominate. Rain is still expected to move in after 18z or so. It will initially stay MVFR ceilings and VFR visibilities, but visibilities will drop into the evening. The heavier rain will move out by 04-05z, and we will see a relative break move in. Showers will move back in as the next part of the system moves in from the NW. It is then that winds will begin to become gusty, to about 25-30 knots from the west with lake effect showers. && .MARINE... Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 We will be issuing a Gale Warning for the core of the upcoming wind/wave event, with a Small Craft Advisory on the front end of it from this evening through the beginning of the Gale Friday morning. Winds will increase quickly with the first surge of colder air late this evening, and overnight. The strongest of the winds will come with the deep colder air that arrives Friday morning. Very unstable conditions over the lake will allow all of the wind aloft to reach the sfc. Waves will build quickly also. After a break on Saturday with high pressure overhead, winds will increase once again Saturday night through Sunday night under a tight gradient from the high to our south, to a strong low across Canada. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Friday for LMZ844>849. Gale Warning from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...NJJ AVIATION...NJJ MARINE...NJJ  181 FXUS64 KEWX 151049 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 549 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 537 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Heavy rainfall threat prompts Flood Watch for Val Verde County from Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning. - One final day of hot and humid weather, then cold front arrives pre-dawn Friday with strong northerly winds in it's wake - Much cooler air behind the cold front on Friday through Sunday with a warming trend returning early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rapid refresh runs depict a region of early morning streamer rain showers, possibly a storm or two forming NW of the San Antonio metro into the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. Should a storm form near Rocksprings, it could be in a favorable environment to become severe as the LLJ influences storm motion. The more likely risk (SPC marginal, 1 of 5) will be over the west half of Val Verde county where the storms have be firing near Big Bend and moving NE. High RH conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures are expected again today, and eastern counties are expected to see enough sunshine to cook up to the 90-95 degree range. Dry air mixing into the region from the Gulf is thanks to a TUTT low that is moving from the Yucatan peninsula toward Brownsville. This impact will likely give the central and eastern counties abundant sunshine and suppressed (or no) rain chances for the daytime period. Farther west, the Edwards Plateau will continue to get waves of Pacific tropical moisture, but most of it remaining west of DRT through up to 00Z. Right around 00Z, the HRRR 0Z 10/15 run depicts storms over Mexico advancing NE toward DRT which would outpace the approaching cold front. The front does accelerate S over Western Val Verde County in the 00Z to 06Z window, with most model data depicting the most intense rains for our area to be 00Z to 03Z in western Val Verde county where we are advertising 1 to 3 inch amounts and isolated pockets up to 6 inches. This focus could advance slightly east, as there are some hints to that trends in the NAM and HRRR runs. Thus we might look at this later this morning and decide that the flood threat needs an expansion to Edwards/Kinney Counties. The one thing that could hinder the rains from shifting east is the speed of the front into the Edwards plateau, to where the north winds precede the onset of heavy precipitation, thus limiting the heavy rain potential to only areas where the front and storm timing were more aligned. The rain potential drops off dramatically farther east, and earlier model cycles had large areas getting no rain at all. This has been revised to a more 30-50 PoP environment for the more populated areas of South Central TX. Most of the rain chances east of the Edwards Plateau will be falling from 06Z to 15Z Friday and is expected along and just behind the front. Forecast time sections depict a deep layer fropa by Friday morning leading to rain ending rather abruptly by 15Z. The deep layer lines up with MOS guidance signals that we'll be in line for a wind advisory with winds gusting up to 45 mph late Friday morning. Thick mid-level clouds and strong cold air advection with minimal downsloping should lead to a dramatic drop of around 20 degrees in the high temperature as compared to those expected today. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Friday night's winds will continue to be a bit blustery, and we'll expect to see some wind chill index values falling into the 30s and 40s by early Saturday morning. Fewer clouds are expected by Saturday morning, but the winds remaining steady should limit how cold the lows will get. A drier day Saturday should allow for filtered sunshine but the cooling gains bringing lows in the 40s and 50s will lead to highs near or perhaps slightly cooler than the Friday maxes. North winds finally become tame Saturday evening, and some light winds could allow for some min temps in the upper 30s to low 40s over northern counties. Another chilly and dry day is expected to continue Sunday into Monday, with the return of a warming trend to begin daytime Monday. Tropical cyclones dancing around in the Eastern Pacific have made the latter periods hard to manage, and the latest model cycles now push back our better chances for rains to arrive with another front about 8-9 days out. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 537 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions for the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF) at the time of this discussion as some drier air that advanced into the area from the east. At these locations, conditions may continue to bounce back and forth between the two flight levels. Farther north-northwest across the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau are more socked into the MVFR conditions. KDRT may not improve to VFR levels until the mid afternoon. There are a few showers in this region as well and could approach KDRT, where I have kept VCSH for now. A few cells to the west have lightning, we'll monitor for guidance doesn't think this activity will impact KDRT this morning. The winds are forecast to gradually subside, with a gradual turn to a more easterly direction then perhaps variable as a cold front approaches and relaxes the pressure gradient. This front will generate more rain and storms and that will advance across the Southern Edwards Plateau this evening into tonight. Activity looks to approach KDRT by 03Z, and have inserted a TEMPO group with -TSRA at that time for the site. The front then arrives at the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF) near or just after midnight. The front brings a chance for showers and have added a TEMPO group at the sites. The front brings a northerly wind as well with winds quickly increasing in speed. The gusts climb up into the 25 to 35 kt range from Friday morning towards Friday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 93 63 70 50 / 0 50 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 92 63 70 50 / 0 50 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 91 64 72 50 / 0 50 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 89 59 66 47 / 0 50 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 87 62 67 50 / 20 70 60 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 90 60 69 49 / 0 50 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 92 64 73 49 / 10 40 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 91 63 70 49 / 0 50 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 92 65 71 51 / 0 40 20 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 91 65 72 51 / 0 40 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 93 67 74 52 / 0 40 10 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday morning for TXZ183. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM....18 AVIATION...62  298 FXUS64 KEWX 151053 CCA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 553 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 537 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Heavy rainfall threat prompts Flood Watch for Val Verde County from Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning. - One final day of hot and humid weather, then cold front arrives pre-dawn Friday with strong northerly winds in it's wake - Much cooler air behind the cold front on Friday through Sunday with a warming trend returning early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rapid refresh runs depict a region of early morning streamer rain showers, possibly a storm or two forming NW of the San Antonio metro into the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. Should a storm form near Rocksprings, it could be in a favorable environment to become severe as the LLJ influences storm motion. The more likely risk (SPC marginal, 1 of 5) will be over the west half of Val Verde county where the storms have be firing near Big Bend and moving NE. High RH conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures are expected again today, and eastern counties are expected to see enough sunshine to cook up to the 90-95 degree range. Dry air mixing into the region from the Gulf is thanks to a TUTT low that is moving from the Yucatan peninsula toward Brownsville. This impact will likely give the central and eastern counties abundant sunshine and suppressed (or no) rain chances for the daytime period. Farther west, the Edwards Plateau will continue to get waves of Pacific tropical moisture, but most of it remaining west of DRT through up to 00Z. Right around 00Z, the HRRR 0Z 10/15 run depicts storms over Mexico advancing NE toward DRT which would outpace the approaching cold front. The front does accelerate S over Western Val Verde County in the 00Z to 06Z window, with most model data depicting the most intense rains for our area to be 00Z to 03Z in western Val Verde county where we are advertising 1 to 3 inch amounts and isolated pockets up to 6 inches. This focus could advance slightly east, as there are some hints to that trends in the NAM and HRRR runs. Thus we might look at this later this morning and decide that the flood threat needs an expansion to Edwards/Kinney Counties. The one thing that could hinder the rains from shifting east is the speed of the front into the Edwards plateau, to where the north winds precede the onset of heavy precipitation, thus limiting the heavy rain potential to only areas where the front and storm timing were more aligned. The rain potential drops off dramatically farther east, and earlier model cycles had large areas getting no rain at all. This has been revised to a more 30-50 PoP environment for the more populated areas of South Central TX. Most of the rain chances east of the Edwards Plateau will be falling from 06Z to 15Z Friday and is expected along and just behind the front. Forecast time sections depict a deep layer fropa by Friday morning leading to rain ending rather abruptly by 15Z. The deep layer lines up with MOS guidance signals that we'll be in line for a wind advisory with winds gusting up to 45 mph late Friday morning. Thick mid-level clouds and strong cold air advection with minimal downsloping should lead to a dramatic drop of around 20 degrees in the high temperature as compared to those expected today. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Friday night's winds will continue to be a bit blustery, and we'll expect to see some wind chill index values falling into the 30s and 40s by early Saturday morning. Fewer clouds are expected by Saturday morning, but the winds remaining steady should limit how cold the lows will get. A drier day Saturday should allow for filtered sunshine but the cooling gains bringing lows in the 40s and 50s will lead to highs near or perhaps slightly cooler than the Friday maxes. North winds finally become tame Saturday evening, and some light winds could allow for some min temps in the upper 30s to low 40s over northern counties. Another chilly and dry day is expected to continue Sunday into Monday, with the return of a warming trend to begin daytime Monday. Tropical cyclones dancing around in the Eastern Pacific have made the latter periods hard to manage, and the latest model cycles now push back our better chances for rains to arrive with another front about 8-9 days out. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 537 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions for the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF) at the time of this discussion as some drier air that advanced into the area from the east. At these locations, conditions may continue to bounce back and forth between the two flight levels. Farther north-northwest across the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau are more socked into the MVFR conditions. KDRT may not improve to VFR levels until the mid afternoon. There are a few showers and storms in this region as well and could approach KDRT, where I have elected to go with mention of VCTS for now as cells to the west have lightning. The winds are forecast to gradually subside, with a gradual turn to a more easterly direction then perhaps variable as a cold front approaches and relaxes the pressure gradient. This front will generate more rain and storms and that will advance across the Southern Edwards Plateau this evening into tonight. Activity looks to approach KDRT by 03Z, and have inserted a TEMPO group with -TSRA at that time for the site. The front then arrives at the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF) near or just after midnight. The front brings a chance for showers and have added a TEMPO group at the sites. The front brings a northerly wind as well with winds quickly increasing in speed. The gusts climb up into the 25 to 35 kt range from Friday morning towards Friday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 93 63 70 50 / 0 50 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 92 63 70 50 / 0 50 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 91 64 72 50 / 0 50 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 89 59 66 47 / 0 50 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 87 62 67 50 / 20 70 60 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 90 60 69 49 / 0 50 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 92 64 73 49 / 10 40 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 91 63 70 49 / 0 50 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 92 65 71 51 / 0 40 20 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 91 65 72 51 / 0 40 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 93 67 74 52 / 0 40 10 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday morning for TXZ183. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM....18 AVIATION...62  314 FXUS61 KGYX 151054 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 654 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Low pressure crosses Friday through Friday night bringing beneficial rainfall. 2. Cold temperatures and strong winds arrive for Saturday, with winter-like wind chills. Moderating temperatures from Sunday into next week with rain-free conditions. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure races across New England today, exiting to the southeast this evening. The timing will bring one more dry and mild day today before conditions turn more damp and cold into the weekend. Rain remains on schedule for Friday, pushing across the area west to east in the morning. This will be associated with low pressure that most model guidance agrees will pass along or just NW of the US/CAN border. The positively tilted trough across the Great Lakes will ensure the low is progressive, pushing into the Canadian Maritimes shortly after midnight Friday night. Rain continues to be the primary precip type for the forecast area as the system passes to the north. There is the chance for some flurries to mix in across the higher western ME mountains early Friday morning, but this should quickly transition to rain for the day. Ensemble IVT values are impressive, albeit briefly, Friday afternoon. Greater than 750 kg/m/s is likely per both the GEFS and ENS. Combined with the jet dynamics and PWATs that near the 90th percentile for early/mid Oct, can't rule out a period of moderate to heavy rainfall rates. The tricky part is location, as global models poorly represent how rain transits the region as far as intensity goes. It is also possible a dry slot bisects periods of rain or showers. For now this seems like the better solution given QPF totals that have only slightly increased through the week, totaling 0.5 to 1 inch. Without better instability to take advantage of the plume of moisture, precip may be focused along features associated with the low (fronts, fgen, etc). A better grasp on precip presentation will come with the short term guidance window arriving. It then becomes more showery Friday night with cold air moving in allowing for a transition to snow showers in the mountains. As temperatures continue to cool into Saturday morning, snow will likely make it to the valley floors across the north. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Strong cold air advection arrives on Saturday with plummeting temperatures. Very confident we will see 850 mb temperatures drop to -7 to -9 C. Even with mixed low-levels, this translates to surface temperatures only in the 40s-near 50 for the coastal plain, with 30s in the higher terrain. Combined with strong winds during the day on Saturday, wind chills will be in the 20s-30s regionwide! Those with outdoor plans this weekend should dress for winter conditions. Conditions will be potentially hazardous for hikers in high terrain. Strong northwest winds, combined with lingering boundary layer moisture and steep low-level lapse rates, will provide a setup for upslope snow showers in the mountains. A few flakes are possible in the foothills too. The other headline will be strong post frontal winds Saturday. Wind speeds at 850 mb are on the order of 30-40 kts. Mixing should be rather deep, so despite not particularly intense wind fields aloft, should see a good bit of this reach the surface, especially in the higher terrain. Gusts to 30 mph can be expected region-wide with gusts to 40 mph in the foothills, and much stronger winds above treeline. The weather turns far more tranquil from Sunday onward. After a very cold Saturday night (with lows bottoming out in the 20s-low 30s regionwide), temperatures start a steady moderating trend. High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern for at least early to midweek next week, but models are indicating that low pressure likely begins to organize to our south during this timeframe, and will be worth monitoring through the forecast period. Temperatures look to be seasonable to potentially mild for this stretch with daytime 50s-60s. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through tonight...Occasionally gusty northwest winds continue behind a cold front thru midday then winds diminishing. Upslope clouds will linger around MVFR thresholds north of the mtns for the next hour or so then VFR conditions expected thru tonight. Towards Fri morning some MVFR may begin to work in as rain approaches the area. Outlook... Friday-Friday night: Widespread IFR and rain are likely. Rain should taper off Friday night with improvement to MVFR or VFR. HIE may see lingering rain showers switch to snow showers with IFR or MVFR. Saturday: Rain and snow showers likely at HIE to bring MVFR/IFR. Elsewhere VFR, although it's possible a few showers make it downwind of the mountains. It also looks breezy with west to northwest winds of 30 kts possible. Sunday-Monday: Mainly VFR with daytime wind gusts 10 to 15 kts. No sig wx. && .MARINE... SCA conditions continue for the waters early this morning. A period of Gales will also be slackening for the outer waters off Penobscot Bay. Offshore winds should help to decrease wave heights as well, falling to 3 to 4 ft by this afternoon. High pressure quickly slides over the waters today, before inland low pressure tracks along the St Lawrence Valley Friday. Increasing onshore winds are expected Friday morning with gusts to 30 kts through the afternoon and building waves 3 to 5 ft. Winds become NW Friday night, increasing to around Gale for at least the outer waters through Saturday. Winds and wave heights will slowly subside Saturday night into Sunday, returning to below SCA conditions for the beginning of next week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ150>152-154. Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ180. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barker/Cornwell AVIATION...Legro  324 FXUS63 KMPX 151054 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 554 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rain today favoring southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. - Cooler temperatures continue through Saturday morning when a widespread frost/freeze is expected. - Temperatures turn back to above normal next week with few chances for additional rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Today... Our two upper level waves continue to approach this morning and the combined synoptic support from these waves will be a part of the widespread rain chances today. At the surface, a low will travel across the Great Plains to the southern Great Lakes. This low track will have one the main deformation axes over us and provide for a large area of stratiform rainfall. With the low track this axis will generally setup from south central Minnesota into west central Wisconsin. Rain will be possible farther northwest of this axis, but the amounts will be lower. Overall this feels much more like the kind of systems we see during the winter, which as we are in October now is not surprising, as this is deformation driven precipitation and we expect some lighter wrap around precipitation afterwards as well. Looking toward the model guidance there is much better agreement with both the RRFS and HRRR having a similar footprint of the QPF. Looking towards the ensembles there remain some difference between the HREF and REFS with the REFS slightly farther east. HREF PMM has the southeast Twin Cities metro as the edge of highest QPF, but the REFS has this farther east into Wisconsin. Overall rainfall is likely along a Fairmont to Mankato to Twin Cities axis with chances dropping off to the northwest. Southeast of this axis is where the highest QPF with totals of 0.5-1" are expected based on these PMM from the CAM ensembles. Forecast soundings show a setup for stratiform rain with a well saturated sounding and little instability to support thunderstorms. This is supported with SPC outlooks that do not have us in general thunder. Tomorrow and Saturday... As the surface low departs some additional light rain could occur with some wrap around in the morning. In general, Friday will be driven by CAA associated with a high moving in to our west. The impact from this high will be cold air and gusty winds. The peak of the CAA should come to an end by the evening and that should help bring the gusts down. However this keeps the CAA strong during the daytime heating keeping highs down in the lower 50s. Then under the high pressure light winds and clear skies will allow for ample radiational cooling Friday night into Saturday morning. This creates a favorable setup for frost and freeze. Based on our current forecast and guidance a freeze looks like it could occur everywhere outside of the urban core of the Twin Cities. Even in the urban core a frost still looks likely. Clear skies look to continue into the day which should allow for warming, especially as the the flow aloft starts to shift towards WAA later in the day. Next Week... This period is driven by persistent ridging with an uncertain end point. The ridging will persist through mid week with some guidance suggesting we could see our next wave late next week, but spread remains. What this means for the weather is warm, much above normal temperatures, return along with few if any chances for rain. So after our coldest air of the season so far Friday into Saturday morning we look to go right back into the warmth. Normal highs next week fall into the mid 50s and our forecast currently has mid to upper 60s. So ten or more degree above normal which could drive our current, already high, departure even higher for the month. We will needto keep on eye on records for October, as another week of 10+ degree above normal temperatures could put us in reach of a record warm month. A lot can change in a short time in fall though, but it will take a big shift in the last week of the month to make a dent in how warm it has been. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 537 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain currently over southwestern MN will spread northeast as this morning progresses. Current MVFR cigs will drop to at least IFR by this afternoon, especially in southern MN and western WI (MKT, RNH, EAU) where periods of LIFR are possible. This is where greatest moisture will be and heavier rainfall will also reduce visibilities down to 2sm. Rain will temporarily end from west to east late this afternoon into this evening as a dry slot moves in. Conditions should improve to MVFR/VFR as clouds begin to lift and break. However, wrap-around moisture will arrive from the north near or after midnight, bringing -SHRA and MVFR/IFR cigs again. Light/variable winds will increase to 5-10 knots as the surface low nears, favoring a northwesterly direction by this afternoon. Winds will increase in speed tonight with sustained values of 15-25 knots and gusts of 25-35 knots (greatest values in western MN). KMSP...Rain begins near 13z with cigs falling quickly to IFR through 00z Friday. A break in the rain and improvement to MVFR is expected Friday evening before wrap-around moisture arrives. This will return MSP to MVFR with -SHRA. Northwesterly winds will steadily increase this afternoon through the end of the period. North-northwesterly winds are expected after 12z Friday with sustained values near 18 knots and gusts near 30 knots. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...Chc MVFR cigs early. Wind NNW 15-20G30kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G25kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G25kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NDC AVIATION...CTG  328 FXUS64 KLIX 151054 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 554 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 501 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through Friday, with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. - A strong cold front will move through late Friday and Friday night, bringing cooler and drier conditions of the weekend. Strong northerly winds behind the front will lead to hazardous marine conditions, with gale conditions possible. - Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible Saturday as gusty northeasterly winds combine with min RH values in the upper 20s and low 30s across the area. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Friday night) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 No changes to ongoing conditions today into Fri. But the cold front that is moving our way will begin to enter the area by noon Fri or shortly thereafter. Northerly winds will already be here before the front, so the only way to find it will be thermal and moisture gradient, and if you look at any model, that is easy to see. Winds and cooler temps will flood over the area as it moves through, but as usual for October, there won't be much in the way of sh/ts. The one thing that will occur will be at least a cloud line along the frontal axis and there is a very small possibility of one or two showers along this cloud line that won't amount to much. The high behind the front will move in over the top of it bridging itself with the high to the east of the front causing strong stability and quickly lowering chances of getting any rain with this system. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Saturday through Monday, high pressure will build over the area. Looking at the models, little to no rainfall is expected as a result. Temperatures will be gradually warming each day of the long term forecast. Highs will be in the mid 70s Saturday and then climb to the mid 80s by Monday afternoon. Conditions should feel more pleasant overall. Tuesday and Wednesday, some low rain chances return, but high pressure remains. Some popup showers will be possible during the afternoon hours both of these days, mainly south of I-10/12. Some lightning may occur as well, but the storms should be pretty suppressed overall. Temperatures will continue to be warmer than average with highs in the mid 80s. MSW && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 501 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Most terminals are in IFR and LIFR again this morning and should slowly move back into VFR by mid morning. Cloud cover and winds may be able to keep FG from occurring tonight into Fri morning for some terminals, but MVFR cigs/vis can't be ruled out. && .MARINE... Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 High pressure will keep winds relatively calm through today. A strong cold front will move through late Friday and Friday night, bringing strong northerly winds and rapidly building seas. Small craft Advisory conditions are likely through the weekend, with gale conditions possible across portions of the offshore waters late Friday into Saturday. Winds will gradually turn easterly Sunday but remain elevated into early next week. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for LAZ034>037- 039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for GMZ529-531. MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for MSZ068>071- 077-083>088. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for GMZ531. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....MSW AVIATION...TE MARINE...TE  433 FXUS61 KPHI 151057 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 657 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Aviation section for the 12Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A warm front lifts north through the region tonight. 2. A strong cold frontal passage Friday evening will bring windy conditions, showers and potential for some thunderstorms, and colder temperatures into the weekend. 3. Widespread frost and freeze conditions are increasingly likely Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A warm front lifts north through the region tonight. Northerly winds will usher a cooler and drier airmass into the region. Surface dew points will fall into the 40s and 50s throughout the area by this afternoon, and high temperatures today will be much cooler than Wednesday. Highs today will be some 15 to 20 degrees cooler than Wednesday, topping off in the low to mid 60s. Low pressure then develops over the Midwest today and lifts to the northeast into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by this evening, then towards the southern Province of Ontario by Friday morning. This will pull a warm front north through the region. Clouds will lower and thicken, and rain begins to develop late. KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold frontal passage Friday evening will bring windy conditions, showers and potential for some thunderstorms, and colder temperatures into the weekend. A sharp trough will begin shifting southeastward towards the region from the Upper Midwest late this week. Slow height falls aloft will begin across the area late Thursday night, with rapid height falls through the day on Friday. The trough axis currently looks to pass through the region late Friday night or early Saturday morning. At the surface, a warm front will lift northward through the region Thursday night into Friday morning, with a strong cold front passing through Friday evening into Friday night. Guidance continues to indicate a slower system which continues to delay the timing of the cold frontal passage somewhat. Currently, it appears likely that isentropic ascent will lead to a broad area of mostly light showers north of the warm front late Thursday night into the first part of the day Friday. Once the region is in the warm sector, additional showers will likely mostly hold off until the cold front approaches. In the warm sector, warm and moist southwesterly flow will be taking place with temperatures surging into the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Some destabilization is likely to take place, although the window will likely only be a few hours long. Guidance currently indicates a narrow corridor ahead of the front of around 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While instability will be modest, wind fields aloft will be quite strong, with 500 mb flow exceeding 60 kt. Scattered to widespread showers and some storms are likely to form along and immediately ahead of the cold front. It remains a possibility that a few storms could become severe, with damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard. The cold front and accompanying showers and storms will clear the area from west to east Friday evening into Friday night. In the wake of the cold front, much cooler and drier air is expected to infiltrate the region. In addition, breezy northwest winds look to impact the area overnight Friday night and through much of the day Saturday. Right now, it looks like there could be an extended period of wind gusts in the 30-40 mph range, but it is not out of the question that winds could be a bit higher and the need for wind headlines still cannot be ruled out. Either way, it will be a much cooler day on Saturday, with highs only topping out in the 40s across the Poconos and far northern NJ, and low to mid 50s areawide. KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread frost and freeze conditions are increasingly likely Saturday night. Saturday night as the trough axis shifts east away from the region and high pressure builds in at the surface, the coldest air so far this season is expected across the entire area. Skies will likely be mostly clear, with winds quickly diminishing. This could set the stage for very good radiational cooling conditions. As a result, low temperatures are expected to fall below freezing across the Poconos, potentially southward into portions of the Lehigh Valley, and adjacent areas of far northern NJ. For much of the rest of the area, lows in the mid 30s to near 40 are expected. Rural areas even across southeastern PA and southern NJ cannot entirely rule out seeing their first freeze of the year. Regardless, a fairly widespread frost is expected across eastern PA and most of NJ, and some patchy frost can't be ruled out farther south into Delmarva either. Trends will continue to be monitored, but frost and/or freeze headlines appear increasingly likely to be needed in upcoming forecast cycles. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...VFR. N winds around 10 kt, veering to the E this afternoon, then SE late. High confidence. Tonight...VFR initially, then MVFR, and IFR CIGs develop late. Potential for MVFR VSBYs in RA. SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S late. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Friday through Friday night...Sub-VFR conditions likely in showers and a few thunderstorms. Showers and storms will clear from west to east Friday night, though gusty northwest winds will set in. Saturday...VFR. Gusty northwest winds. Saturday night through Monday...VFR. No significant weather. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for for the Atlantic coastal waters from Cape May to Fenwick Island until 11 am. Behind a cold front, north winds will average 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, except up to 25 kt for the Delaware ocean waters this morning. Winds become east by this afternoon, then southeast late. Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt turn south late tonight. Outlook... Friday through Friday night...Advisory conditions likely to develop by late afternoon Friday as southwesterly winds pick up to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt. Friday night, winds will shift to northwesterly with a cold frontal passage and increase further. Gales will be possible. Seas increasing to 4-6 feet. Showers and a few storms will likely lead to visibility restrictions. Saturday through Sunday...Advisory conditions likely to continue through Saturday and even Saturday night with northwesterly winds potentially gusting to near gale force through the daytime hours Saturday before beginning to decrease Saturday night. Winds and seas will likely subside to below advisory criteria through the day Sunday. Sunday night through Monday...No marine headlines currently anticipated with winds below 25 kt and seas below 5 feet. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for ANZ430-431-450>455-480>483-485. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ454- 455. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cooper/MPS AVIATION...Cooper/MPS MARINE...Cooper/MPS  499 FXUS61 KILN 151059 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 659 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Locally heavy rainfall threat early this morning appears low so it was removed. PWAT anomalies are highest across central Kentucky, south of the local area. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and Friday. Locally heavy rainfall introduces a localized flood threat Thursday night. There is a low end severe weather threat Thursday evening ahead of a cold front moving through. The main threat will be damaging wind gusts. 2) Gusty winds are expected on Friday with a rapid drop in temperatures. Frost is likely this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1) A cold front that dropped through the area into central Kentucky early this morning will eventually move back through the area today as a warm front. This will occur as an area of low pressure ejects northeastward out of the central Plains into the lower Midwest and Great Lakes by the evening. From the mid morning into the early afternoon, the incoming low pressure will transition our winds from northeasterly to southeasterly. Plentiful moisture remains trapped within the transition, leading mostly cloudy to overcast conditions through much of the day, including the afternoon. As the warm front lifts northward late in the afternoon and evening, the local area will be within the warm sector of the incoming system with the cold front still off to the west. A few showers are expected along the warm front as it lifts north, but the primary severe threat will exist with any thunderstorms that are able to form south of the warm front in the better heating. While forecast soundings do indicate favorable turning of the winds (resulting in curved hodographs) in the lower parts of the atmosphere, extensive cloud cover prevents more supportive surface temperatures. The lack of better heating results in a low-level inversion that is maintained through much of the afternoon and into the early evening. As instability begins to become more favorable, the directional wind shear is much less curved, keeping any tornado threat very limited. Instead, a few storms capable of damaging winds is the primary concern during the evening hours. With the deep layer winds becoming more unidirectional, multiple rounds of storms impacting the same areas could eventually lead to swaths of locally heavy rainfall. The best chance for this to happen is across portions of eastern Indiana and west-central Ohio. Otherwise, most area may remain rainfall free until the cold front approaches Friday morning. Key Message 2) Expectations remain on track for the low pressure to intensity as it moves through the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday. The associated cold front moves from west to east Friday morning. That means the warmest temperatures in the mid to upper 60s will occur during the early morning hours through daybreak on Friday. Winds will shift out of the northwest, gusting up to 30 mph Friday morning and early afternoon. Along and behind the front, additional rain showers and periods of late rain are expected as the main forcing associated with the trough moves through the region. Temperatures in the mid to upper 50s are forecast the rest of the day. With the combination of wind, rain, and dropping temperatures, conditions will feel quite different from the early morning bus pickup to the afternoon drop off, especially across central and southern Ohio. Winds begin to taper off late Friday night into Saturday morning as high pressure builds in from the west, but it likely will not be fast enough to result in frost Saturday morning. Instead, the most favorable time for frost will be Saturday night into Sunday morning as high pressure shifts eastward across the region. Temperatures quickly drop into the lower 40s and upper 30s Saturday evening, with some locations dropping below freezing by daybreak Sunday. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface winds remain out of the northeast around 5 to 10 knots this morning as a stalled front remains south of the TAF sites. CIG categories are mostly in the lower-end MVFR with pockets of VFR and IFR occurring as well. Expect this to continue through much of the morning and afternoon as the warm front begins to lift north. VFR conditions occur for a few hours after 00Z with the front lifting north, however, toward the end of the period, lower MVFR CIGs return as the cold front pushes in from the west. Ahead of the cold front, showers and a few thunderstorms are expected, and confidence was low enough to keep mentions of thunder out of the TAFs, with DAY the only exception with slightly higher confidence. PROB30 periods begin at 22Z and continues until 03Z for CVG/LUK/DAY. Additional PROB30s are posted for ILN/CMH/LCK from 01Z-04Z. A few hours of LLWS is expected primarily between 03Z-09Z ahead of the cold front. As the cold front approaches toward the end of the period, additional showers or periods of light rain will occur along with a wind shift from southwest to west-northwest. Gusts between 25-30 knots are expected with the frontal passage. OUTLOOK...Occasional MVFR conditions are possible through Friday night. Gusty winds out of the west northwest are expected on Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McGinnis AVIATION...McGinnis  511 FXUS61 KRNK 151059 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 659 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Frontal boundary provides shower/few storm chances today. 2) Strong front late Friday to bring blustery winds and much cooler temperatures going into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Frontal boundary provides shower/few storm chances today. A backdoor front drops south to the VA/NC border today with showers/few storms prevalent mainly north of U.S. 460 with less chances further south into NC. This front will bring shift in the winds to the northeast/east north of it should keep cloud cover around through most of the day, with low clouds in place into this evening. This will create a dichotomy on highs with 60s north of I-64 and possibly as far south as ROA/LYH to mid 80s in the NC Piedmont. Front lifts north tonight as a warm front with showers fading except toward WV/Alleghany of VA. Key Message 2: Strong front late Friday to bring blustery winds and much cooler temperatures going into the weekend. We quickly transition out of the zonal flow with the approach of a high amplitude upper trough and sharp attendant sfc cold front late Friday into Saturday. Not expecting much in the form of storms with again limited instability with this system and the greater chance of showers looks to be in the west mountains. The main impacts from this front will be enhanced gradient winds kicking in for Friday night into Saturday morning and then some of the coldest air of the season ushering in. It will definitely feel like a rollercoaster of change as highs Saturday look to be mainly in the low 50s for much of the mountains and then upper 50s to low 60s for the Piedmont. Sunday morning is going to have frost/freeze concerns for much of the area with progged lows mainly in the upper 20s to low 30s for the mountains and mid to upper 30s for the Piedmont. This could again be the case for Monday morning as well. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Showers and sub-VFR cigs will impact the mountains this morning, and eventually reach the piedmont, though shower chances will be low or nil at KDAN. With the front driving southward today models have cigs lowering through the day, with good potential for IFR or lower cigs at most terminals through the rest of the period as the flow turns northeast to east. Showers will impact vsbys at times more-so across LWB this morning. BLF will likely improve back to VFR by this afternoon Front lifts north tonight so potential for clearing exists and could lead to VFR but also fog formation. At the moment will lean toward MVFR to LIFR at times. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... With a stalled boundary followed by a strong cold front, some sub-VFR conditions are possible Friday. Behind the front Friday night into Saturday morning, look for an abrupt wind shift to the northwest and gusty conditions at the surface. These stronger winds should gradually veer north and decrease through the day Saturday. Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected into Sunday and Monday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AB/DS/WP AVIATION...AB/DS/WP  460 FXUS62 KMLB 151058 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 658 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Rain chances gradually rise today into Friday, with temperatures slightly above normal. - A wet and windy weekend is forecast behind a passing front, with conditions persisting into early next week. Wind Advisories are likely and flooding concerns return, especially along the southern coast. - Dangerous boating conditions, high surf, and moderate beach erosion are expected behind the front this weekend and into early next week. Residents and visitors should use caution near the beach and remain out of the water beginning this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Today-Friday...Broad area of high pressure north of the area will gradually shift eastward as a mid/upper level trough moving into the Central U.S. pushes a cold front into the southeast states. Onshore winds will continue across the area, but will weaken into tomorrow, with easterly winds increasing to around 10 mph this afternoon and then dropping to 5-10 mph on Friday. The onshore flow at the surface combined with S/SE winds aloft on the western edge of a mid level ridge transports deeper moisture northward across the area through late week, leading to rising rain chances across the area. For today, rain chances (20-50%) remain mostly south of a line from Orlando to the Cape, where greatest moisture (PW values of 1.7-2.0") will reside. Isolated onshore moving showers will be possible along the coast, mainly south of the Cape this morning, and then isolated to scattered showers and a few storms are forecast to develop south of Orlando into this afternoon. Into Friday, PW values of 1.9-2.1" overspread all of east central Florida, with coverage of showers and storms increasing (PoPs 50-60%), becoming scattered to numerous primarily into the afternoon and early evening hours. Main storm threats each day will be occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds up to 45 mph and locally heavy rainfall up to 1-3". Temperatures climb to slightly above normal, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Saturday-Wednesday...Weather conditions rapidly deteriorate into the weekend as trough aloft shifts into the eastern U.S. and pushes front through the area. Breezy to windy conditions quickly develop into Saturday as northerly winds increase to 15-25 mph, with gusts up to 30-40 mph (strongest along the coast). Wind Advisories will likely be needed for the coast into Saturday/Saturday night, and may even expand across inland areas during the day Sunday as northeast winds look to strengthen from tightening pressure gradient between front to the south and strong ridge to the north. Some forecast uncertainty does come into play later in the weekend into next week, as models show a cut-off low forming from the advancing trough and developing a strong area of low pressure at the surface either near (ECMWF) or well offshore (GFS) the Mid-Atlantic coast. Exact timing/location of this developing feature could lead to some differences in wind direction and overall speed. However, current forecast leans toward the GFS, which has more model support currently, maintaining breezy to windy NE winds through at least early next week. Models now show advancing front will push out some of the deeper moisture across the area, even as winds quickly veer onshore. Rain chances remain high up to 50-70% for much of the area Saturday. However, the GFS now has PW values falling below 1.5" by Sunday. Still, the strong onshore winds will still produce rounds of scattered to numerous showers that will be able topush onshore through late weekend into early next week. A few storms will also continue to be possible, mainly south of the Cape where some lingering instability will persist. Persistent bands of showers and any storms could lead to locally heavy to excessive rainfall, producing flooding issues, mainly across the Treasure Coast. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall (Level 1 of 4) exists across this portion of east central FL into the weekend. Cooler temperatures move in behind the front, with highs dropping to as low as the mid 70 to low 80s Sunday, and then slowly warming but remaining near to below normal through the middle of next week. The strong onshore winds will lead to a prolonged period of dangerous beach and boating conditions. High surf, with breaking waves of 9-12 ft over multiple tidal cycles will contribute to moderate beach erosion, especially north of Cape Canaveral. Residents and visitors should use caution near the beach and remain out of the water. && .MARINE... Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Today-Friday...Favorable boating conditions persist through Friday. High pressure north of the area shifts east through late week, as a cold front moves into the Southeast United States. This will allow onshore winds to continue but weaken, with easterly winds up to 10- 15 knots today diminishing to 5-10 knots tomorrow. Seas will remain around 2-3 feet. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across the waters as will a few storms, mainly south of the Cape today, with coverage of this activity increasing across the entire coastal waters into Friday. Saturday-Tuesday...Hazardous to dangerous boating conditions are then forecast to rapidly develop behind a passing front into the weekend. N/NE winds increase to 20-30 knots across the waters Saturday and then strengthen to around 25-30 knots across the entire waters on Sunday, with frequent gusts to gale force likely. Winds of this intensity are then expected to continue through early next week keeping dangerous boating conditions in place. These stronger winds will quickly build seas up to 10-14 feet by Saturday night and remain around that height through early next week. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated to scattered storms will also persist across the waters, with this activity continuing to push toward the coast and onshore, especially south of the Cape. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 624 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Isolated showers continue across the Atlantic this morning, with a shower or two potentially making it to the coast, mainly from Cape southward. Light and variable winds early this morning will become east and increase to near 10 KT by mid to late morning. Rain chances increase across the south this morning, spreading across the interior this afternoon. Have maintained VCSH from VRB southward starting at 14Z, with MLB and ISM starting at 18Z. VCTS starts at 18Z for VRB southward, with PROB30 groups for FPR and SUA starting at 20Z for 3sm TSRA BKN030. Any lingering shower/storm activity should move out or dissipate after 01Z. Winds will then become light and variable once again tonight. Winds at MCO will then become east-southeast and increase to around 5 KT by mid to late morning on Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 86 73 87 71 / 10 10 40 20 MCO 90 74 90 74 / 10 10 60 20 MLB 87 76 88 73 / 20 20 60 40 VRB 88 75 89 72 / 30 30 60 40 LEE 90 73 89 72 / 0 0 60 20 SFB 89 73 90 73 / 10 10 60 20 ORL 89 74 90 74 / 10 10 60 20 FPR 88 75 88 72 / 40 30 60 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Weitlich AVIATION...Watson  504 FXUS62 KRAH 151059 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 659 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Forecast confidence for rain continues to increase for Fri night- Sat, though considerable uncertainty in rainfall amounts and duration remain. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 300 AM Thursday... 1) Record heat will continue through Friday. 2) A strong cold front will sweep across central NC Friday evening, with a significant cooldown for the weekend. There is still some potential for patchy frost, but forecast uncertainty has increased. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 AM Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Record heat will continue through Friday. An anomalously strong sub-tropical ridge centered in 00Z/15th upr air data over the TN Valley, with standardized 500 mb height anomalies ~2 sigma, will progress ewd and off the South Atlantic coast through 12Z Fri. On the nrn periphery of that ridge, series of MCVs from dissipated or weakening convection from the DelMarVa to nrn Middle TN will progress generally ewd and across the srn Middle Atlantic today. Deep layer flow will then strengthen and back to swly ahead of an intense, positively-tilted, full latitude, and increasingly-phased trough --one comprised of a srn stream cyclone now over CO and a vigorous nrn stream shortwave trough over MB-- forecast to stretch from wrn QC to the lwr MS Valley by 00Z Sat. At the surface, an outflow boundary/wind shift across the Virginias and lwr OH Valley, related to the aforementioned dissipated or weakening convection there, will drift ssewd and probably across the nrn Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain of NC by late this morning- midday. A synoptic front lags the outflow and was analyzed at 07Z from n-cntl DE through nrn VA and cntl WV. While this boundary will also move generally swd and in backdoor fashion across VA this morning, it will likely not move into the ne Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain of NC until later this afternoon and evening, where it will briefly stall. The front will then retreat nwd later tonight and Fri, as mass response strengthens ahead of the intense trough aloft and a related surface cyclone forecast to deepen considerably while tracking across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Fri. Temperatures today will be generally persistence ones equatorward of the approaching synoptic front, which will offer cooling throughout VA and only into the far ne Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain of NC. While heights throughout the column will fall ahead of the approaching trough aloft on Fri, related cooling will be limited over cntl NC until late in the day and more-so Fri night. As such, temperatures on Fri will again be near persistence ones, to perhaps a couple of degrees lower than previous days' warm sector ones. A gusty swly surface wind may take a little edge off the heat while also boosting the temperature at RDU to, or within a degree of, the latest 90 degree day and probably the third consecutive in this stretch, provided the backdoor front holds north of RDU as expected today. KEY MESSAGE 2... A strong cold front will sweep across central NC Friday evening, with a significant cooldown for the weekend. There is still some potential for patchy frost, but forecast uncertainty has increased. Aloft, a potent nrn stream s/w will drop into the upper MS Valley and track sewd across the Great Lakes Thu and Fri, deepening the trough over the ern US as it interacts with another s/w ejecting enewd from the cntl Rockies to the Great Lakes Thu/Thu night. The positively tilted trough will continue to amplify as it moves ewd across the eastern US and offshore over the weekend. Model spread has increased from Sat onward, with some more recent guidance showing a low developing within thetrough over the Carolinas Sat/Sat night, possibly lingering over the region for awhile, slowing the troughs ewd progression, while others develop a low offshore. At the surface, an area of low pressure lifting newd across the mid-MS and OH Valley on Thu will deepen as it continues across the Great Lakes and Northeast US Thu night/Fri. The trailing cold front will move across central NC late Fri evening into Fri night, currently progged to be moving into the nw Piedmont around 00Z Sat. A ~1037 mb Canadian high centered over the s-cntl Plains on Sat will build into the region in the wake of the front as it tracks newd across the mid-MS and OH Valley regions on Sat. There is some uncertainty beyond Sat, with some models showing a coastal low developing as along the front as it moves offshore, while others show a more progressive front continue ewd over the Atlantic. The latter solution would allow the high to settle over the mid- Atlantic, while the former would take the high enewd across the nrn mid-Atlantic/Northeast US on Sun. The varying solutions noted above will impact numerous weather parameters (temps, winds, precip, etc.), resulting in a low- confidence forecast Sat night onward. The chance for rain continues to increase, as does the duration, coverage, and uncertainty. Forecast amounts are still somewhat light, with generally a quarter of an inch or less expected Fri night through Sat night. The low-level jet is expected to strengthen over the area Fri eve, with 25-35 kts at 925mb. The pressure gradient will also be quite strong as a ~1037 mb high builds ewd. Expect gusty winds with and behind the front Fri eve through Sat. Temperatures should fall about 25-30 degrees from Friday aft to Sat morning. By Saturday, highs will be similar to the lows from Thu night (generally low to mid 60s). Keeping in mind the forecast uncertainty noted above, lows may drop another 10-15 degrees or so Sat night, as cold air advects into the area. For now expect lows to range from upper 30s NW to mid/upr 40s SE both Sat night and Sun night. However, if the more progressive solutions verify there could be some mid 30s lows over portions of the Piedmont both nights, possibly resulting in some patchy frost in the usual cooler, sheltered areas. && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 655 AM Thursday... Light swly winds will persist ahead of an outflow boundary/wind shift that may shift surface winds to light nely/ely at Piedmont sites and RWI by late morning. That boundary will be followed by a backdoor cold front that will settle into the far ne Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain of NC late this afternoon or this evening. IFR- MVFR restrictions are likely to develop behind that front, including at RWI, late tonight-Fri morning. While the front and post-frontal ceilings are likely to hold just to the north of Piedmont sites, by perhaps 10-30 miles, a slight swwd shift of the location of the boundary would result in an increasing likelihood for flight restrictions at Piedmont sites tonight as well. Outlook: Gusty swly surface winds will develop ahead of a strong cold front on Fri, followed by a period of strong and gusty nwly surface winds with the passage of that front Fri night. There is a chance that the front will be accompanied by a shallow, broken line of convection (devoid of lightning) as it moves across cntl NC Fri night, followed by an area of post-frontal, stratiform rain that may linger into the day Sat. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 15: KGSO: 87/1985 KRDU: 88/1985 KFAY: 91/1931 October 16: KGSO: 85/1953 KRDU: 86/1925 KFAY: 90/1925 Record High Minimum Temperatures: October 15: KGSO: 63/1985 KRDU: 66/1942 KFAY: 67/1928 October 16: KGSO: 66/1947 Latest 90F days: GSO: 10/12/1904 RDU: 10/10/1907 FAY: 10/26/1940 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWS/KC AVIATION...MWS CLIMATE...RAH  481 FXUS64 KFWD 151058 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 558 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast for western North TX through Thursday night. - A strong cold front this evening/tonight will bring windy conditions on Friday. Peak wind gusts to of 40 to 45 mph are likely much of the day. - Much cooler and quiet conditions are expected this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 An active convective pattern will continue to unfold across West TX and Oklahoma early this morning with disturbances moving through the SW flow aloft, ahead of the upper level trough ejecting into the Central Plains later today. Some of this activity has reached primarily our western Red River counties this morning, with scattered showers and a storm or two expected to continue impacting our northwest counties through the morning (40-60%). For most of the area, the remainder of the overnight hours will be quiet with broken low clouds and south winds 10-15 mph. This trend should continue through the morning hours with much of the region remaining rain-free during the first half of the day. With low clouds scattering out, highs will climb into the 80s and low 90s ahead of the cold front. Low-level moisture being drawn northward will pool along the front, while drier air has infiltrated the southeast. Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop across western North TX during the afternoon and evening as the front approaches. Rain chances will be highest generally from Cisco to Mineral Wells to Gainesville (60-80%) with activity becoming more isolated heading east and southeast. This is in part due to the drier air, particularly in the midlevels across much of the forecast area. As the front moves through elsewhere, a quick band of showers may develop with the lift from the front and sufficient low-level moisture, but anything beyond a period of brief, light rain is unlikely for areas east of I-35. For areas in between, including the I-35 corridor in North TX and all of western Central TX, isolated showers/storms are possible, but coverage should decrease as the front approaches, with a 30-50% chance of seeing any rain. Across our western and northwestern counties, modest instability may support a couple of stronger storms with gusty winds, but the overall threat is low and severe weather is not expected. Otherwise, as the front enters our northwestern counties late this afternoon and early evening, a sharp northerly wind shift is anticipated with temperatures dropping into the 70s and eventually into the 60s from the NW to the SE. Winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph behind the front Thursday night with gusts of 30-35 mph through midnight. After midnight, the gustier conditions are expected into Friday with a few peak gusts of 40-45 mph. Lows tonight in the wake of the front will drop into the low 50s NW to low 60s SE. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 In the wake of the cold front, gusty north winds will continue Friday as high pressure builds southward through the Plains. A strong pressure gradient across the region will support sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts mostly to 40 mph, while continued cold air advection will keep temperatures in the low 60s across the northwest to the low 70s in the Brazos Valley. Be sure to secure any Halloween decorations due to the gusty winds and use caution if driving high profile vehicles on E-W roads. Gusty winds will gradually diminish Friday night, with highs in the 60s areawide Saturday. High pressure will remain in control through the rest of the weekend, with winds gradually shifting to the east on Sunday. Temperatures will moderate slightly Sunday, climbing back into the 70s, with a return to low 80s for much of the area by Tuesday as southerly flow returns. Latest guidance has trended towards a slower return of moisture into mid to late week, with the NBM a few degrees cooler Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures should remain closer to normal early next week before highs return to the mid and upper 80s Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The biggest change in the near term is to remove the TEMPO MVFR for all D10 sites based on satellite trends, while keeping a brief TEMPO for KACT with ceilings around 2500 ft. South winds 11-15 kts will prevail much of today before the arrival of a strong cold front this evening. Latest adjustments to FROPA timing place it moving through DFW ~00Z and Waco ~03Z. Immediately behind the front, scattered to broken low-end VFR ceilings are expected, with ceilings likely lowering to MVFR as the stratus deck fills in tonight. Ceilings of ~1800-2500 ft are possible during this time, but confidence in the extent and/or duration of < 2000 ft cigs is too low to break out in any specific timeframe. Clearing will occur from the north to the south, around ~10Z for DFW sites and likely closer to 12-13Z for Waco. A northerly wind shift will occur behind the front, but the gustiest conditions will not arrive until a few hours later. Initial sustained winds will be near 12-15 kts, then increase to 18-22 kts, gusting to ~30 kts. These gusty conditions will begin ~04-06Z and persist through the day Friday, well beyond the current TAF period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 59 65 49 / 20 40 0 0 Waco 89 60 68 49 / 10 30 10 0 Paris 89 57 65 46 / 0 20 0 0 Denton 89 54 64 45 / 40 50 0 0 McKinney 88 56 64 44 / 10 40 0 0 Dallas 91 60 67 49 / 10 40 0 0 Terrell 89 58 66 47 / 10 20 0 0 Corsicana 89 60 67 48 / 0 20 0 0 Temple 90 61 70 48 / 0 40 10 0 Mineral Wells 89 55 64 43 / 50 60 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gordon LONG TERM....Gordon AVIATION...Gordon