148 FXUS63 KGRR 150702 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 301 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Becoming wet, windy, and colder through Friday - Extended dry period with moderating temperatures next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Becoming wet, windy, and colder through Friday Everything remains on track for the evolution of our weather from today through Friday evening, with no major changes noted at this time. Plenty of clouds remain from the stratocumulus clouds that moved overhead on Wednesday. There are some breaks in this, but high clouds are widespread, and the holes in the lower clouds are filling in. We will see deep moisture advect over the area this afternoon as the strengthening low level jet associated ahead of the upper wave and developing sfc low will approach late this afternoon. It is with this feature that we will see the most widespread rain with this entire system. The sliver of instability (elevated in nature based between 850 and 700 mb) that may affect the I-94 corridor would also be maximized at that time. All of this would be through just before 06z when the low level jet peels away and the occluded front moves through. The next wave of showers will then come right ahead of the secondary cold front/cold conveyor belt that will surge in from the NW. This comes through centered around 12z Friday give or take a couple of hours depending on the northern or southern portion of the forecast area. This is associated at the leading edge of the upper trough and cyclonic flow arriving. The passage of these features will ultimately shift the mean low level flow to become from the NNE. Lake effect rain showers will be likely initially from the NW, and will shift offshore by late afternoon. It is from mid morning until the wind shifts offshore when the best chance of lake induced thunder will be possible with just short of 1,000 J/kg of CAPE available. Wind will be another aspect of this system. Right now, it looks like most places will see gusts to around 40 mph Friday. May just be short of advisory criteria inland, where instability will be a bit less than over the warmer waters. A few showers will remain possible inland through the daylight hours, and a few may linger into mid-evening. It will be shortly after 00z Saturday the the upper trough moves out, and the flow becomes anti-cyclonic. - Extended dry period with moderating temperatures next week Strong subsidence will build in quickly behind the departure of the upper trough by Saturday morning. The upper air pattern over the CONUS then transitions to a much more amplified trough/ridge/trough pattern from the West Coast to East Coast in almost an Omega block. The strong upper trough on Friday will close off along the East Coast, and strong energy moves toward the West Coast from the Pacific. This will place Michigan in between under the influence of the strong ridge. This means plenty of dry weather, with sunny days and cool nights. There will be attempts of short waves trying to flatten the ridge. It seems that the ridge should remain intact through at least mid-week. Later in the week, there have been indications that there may be a trough that tries to close off overhead next Thursday. Way too much uncertainty seven days out to try to pin down the details. Generally speaking, we will see above average temperatures, and below average precipitation. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 156 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 We are seeing a variety of conditions at the terminals this morning, ranging from some small areas of clear skies to lower clouds in the MVFR category. The trend for the night will be for the lower clouds to become more widespread as they expand. The clouds should end up mainly MVFR. There may be some breaks at times, but will side on the pessimistic side. The clouds will then hold on into the afternoon. We will see widespread showers move in over the area from West to East after about 18z. Conditions will then deteriorate late afternoon and this evening as we go down into the LIFR category with visibilities and ceilings. Showers will continue the majority of the time, but may scatter out a bit right at the end of the period. Low level wind shear is expected at all but the KMKG terminal after 00z as the wind core aloft moves overhead. The winds at the sfc will be from the SE at less than 10 knots, while 45 knots or so from the SW at 2k ft agl. && .MARINE... Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 We will be issuing a Gale Warning for the core of the upcoming wind/wave event, with a Small Craft Advisory on the front end of it from this evening through the beginning of the Gale Friday morning. Winds will increase quickly with the first surge of colder air late this evening, and overnight. The strongest of the winds will come with the deep colder air that arrives Friday morning. Very unstable conditions over the lake will allow all of the wind aloft to reach the sfc. Waves will build quickly also. After a break on Saturday with high pressure overhead, winds will increase once again Saturday night through Sunday night under a tight gradient from the high to our south, to a strong low across Canada. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Friday for LMZ844>849. Gale Warning from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...NJJ AVIATION...NJJ MARINE...NJJ  197 FXUS63 KICT 150702 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 202 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Off-and-on showers, drizzle, and a few embedded thunderstorms will gradually exit to the east today. Localized minor flooding remains possible over mainly southeast KS. - Much cooler air filtering south through Friday and Saturday, with lows Saturday morning falling into the 30s, and frost likely across much of the area. - Warming trend next week, with showers/thunderstorms possible once again by mid-late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 159 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 PRECIPITATION CHANCES: TODAY...The upper low and associated deep cold frontal zone will traverse the region, with continued scattered to numerous showers along with a few embedded thunderstorms and areas of drizzle, mainly this morning, with precipitation chances gradually exiting to the east this afternoon. Still looking at the potential for localized modest to briefly high rainfall rates, especially overnight through early morning over far southeast KS. However, given the limited instability, rainfall rates will likely remain less than one inch per hour for most, so a higher-end flash flood threat appears unlikely, with any minor flooding likely confined to low-lying and typical flood-prone areas. The current flood watch runs through midday, and we may be able to cancel all or portions of it early. For this afternoon, could have renewed scattered shower/storm development over southeast KS in vicinity of the advancing cold front. Despite decent effective shear, severe weather is unlikely given meager instability and poor lapse rates. SUNDAY NIGHT--MONDAY...A stubborn southwest CONUS upper low is expected to finally eject east-northeast this weekend, possibly bring some low precipitation chances to Mid-America Sunday night into Monday. Lift and moisture is not very impressive with this system, and the GFS has backed off some, so left the forecast dry for now. MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports another deep western CONUS upper trough taking shape next week, which could support another round of showers/thunderstorms across the region by mid to especially late week. Still quite a bit of uncertainty and model spread, so stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days. TEMPERATURES & WIND: TODAY...Had to undercut NBM high temperatures once again today due to widespread clouds/precipitation and the cooler airmass spreading southeast across the region. That said, thinking central KS will stay in the 50s today, with 60s and 70s further southeast. Stout/gusty north winds will gradually expand southeast today as the surface pressure gradient tightens in wake of the advancing cold front. FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A deepening central to eastern North American upper trough will drive strong Canadian high pressure south into Mid- America, supporting the coolest air thus far this fall season. High temperatures in the 50s to lows 60s appear likely. Additionally, stout/gusty north winds Friday will make it feel even cooler. The coolest night will be Friday night, with lows likely dipping into the 30s for most underneath the strong high pressure. Given the light winds and clear skies, frost is looking probable for much of the forecast area with the exception of possibly far southeast KS early Saturday. SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...Model consensus supports a quick return to seasonable or even above normal temperatures next week, as another deep upper trough sets up over the western CONUS, with breezy south winds developing once again by Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 IFR to LIFR conditions will continue through much of the morning hours at all sites as occasional showers traverse central, south-central, and southeast KS. VSBY have remained MVFR or VFR through much of the precipitation this evening and that is the expectation as we continue through the overnight hours. Conditions will gradually improve to MVFR by early afternoon at most locations with VFR conditions returning near/after sunset this evening. Winds will shift from the northwest across central KS before sunrise and this afternoon across southeast KS. Gusts may approach 25 kt, especially late this afternoon. Upon sunset, wind speeds should relax some with a few gusts up to 20 kt remaining. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ069>072-082- 083-091>096-098>100. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...BRB  269 FXUS61 KOKX 150703 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 303 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The potential for wind headlines has continued to decrease for Friday night into Saturday, otherwise no significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong frontal system brings showers Thursday night into Friday morning and a second round of showers/isolated thunderstorms primarily during Friday evening. No significant impacts are anticipated at this time. 2) The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NW winds Friday night into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... The next frontal system approaches tonight, with a warm frontal passage during Friday morning. This will bring the next chance of any meaningful rain late Thursday night into a portion of the day Friday. The first batch of rain should be primarily light and will be associated with the warm front. The warm front is progged to lift further north towards the afternoon, thus a break in the rain is expected for several hours at this point as an approaching cold front towards evening is being progged to move a bit slower than previously indicated. Therefore the area will get into the warm sector for a large portion of Friday afternoon with seasonably warm temperatures mainly well into the 70s, especially away from the ocean. With the front progged to a be bit slower the cold front is likely to swing through primarily during the evening hours allowing instability to build some later in the day. Therefore the front may bring with it some heavier shower activity and the slight chance of a few thunderstorms. The consensus on forecasted total rainfall amounts still looks to be on the order of a half inch or thereabouts from the warm front and cold front combined. Locally higher amounts of up to three quarters of an inch, to one inch cannot be completely ruled out where any convective activity initiates. Any line of convection will be somewhat shallow and fast moving, so any downpours should be short-lived. SPC has placed a good portion of the area in a marginal risk of severe weather for late Friday / Friday evening. With the shallow nature of any expected convection the only risk is a limited wind risk with any storms. A few showers remain possible behind the front until around 06-12z Sat as the upper trough axis lags to the west and attempts to amplify. The winds will increase ahead of the cold front during Friday afternoon out of the southwest. The winds will then quickly shift to the W during late Friday evening for far western sections, then further east into the overnight hours into Saturday morning as the cold front passes through. Much drier air returns for the second half of Friday night into early Saturday morning with the winds becoming more NW and gusty as the cold front eventually gets offshore. .KEY MESSAGE 2... The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NW winds later Friday night into Saturday. As mixing increases in the column immediately behind the cold front look for strong, gusty winds behind the front which may last right through a good portion of the afternoon. Also, behind the front the coolest weather of the fall is likely for the first half of the weekend. Daytime highs Saturday will be in the lower and middle 50s with a gusty NNW wind. Widespread 30s and lower 40s are expected for lows Saturday night. Some temperature moderation is likely towards late in the day on Sunday with daytime temperatures recovering a little into the upper half of the 50s with much lighter winds. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR as high pressure builds from the NW today, then passes E tonight. NNW-N windsaround 10 kt will become NNE after daybreak, then become NE less than 10 kt before shifting SE late this afternoon into this evening. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled AMD expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Late tonight: Showers move in late with MVFR cond. Friday: Showers with IFR cond early, improving to MVFR by late morning and then VFR in the afternoon at the NYC metro terminals. Improvement to VFR should occur later in the afternoon at KBDR/KISP/KHPN. KSWF may remain MVFR in the afternoon, while KGON remains IFR. S winds G20kt in the morning, then SW G20-25kt in the afternoon. Friday night: Showers and possibly a tstm in the evening, with mainly MVFR conditions, then VFR. Cold frontal passage followed by W- NW winds G25kt. Saturday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G25kt, diminishing in the evening. Sunday and Monday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... The pressure gradient relaxes some through this afternoon as high pressure builds with sub advisory conditions prevailing. However, conditions ramp up during Friday morning with small craft conditions quickly developing in a southerly flow, especially for the afternoon when the winds turn more SW ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front passes through across the waters late Friday night with the winds becoming W, then NW during Saturday morning. A period of gales remains possible across a good portion of the waters late Friday night into the day on Saturday. Small craft conditions will likely linger for much of Saturday night before sub advisory conditions return during Sunday morning. With high pressure building across the waters Sunday and settling nearby into early next week sub advisory conditions are expected to prevail. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ331- 355. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ332- 340-345-350-353. Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for ANZ350-353-355-380-383-385. && $$ DISCUSSION...JE AVIATION...Goodman MARINE...JE  956 FXUS62 KRAH 150712 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 312 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Forecast confidence for rain continues to increase for Fri night- Sat, though considerable uncertainty in rainfall amounts and duration remain. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 300 AM Thursday... 1) Record heat will continue through Friday. 2) A strong cold front will sweep across central NC Friday evening, with a significant cooldown for the weekend. There is still some potential for patchy frost, but forecast uncertainty has increased. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 AM Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Record heat will continue through Friday. An anomalously strong sub-tropical ridge centered in 00Z/15th upr air data over the TN Valley, with standardized 500 mb height anomalies ~2 sigma, will progress ewd and off the South Atlantic coast through 12Z Fri. On the nrn periphery of that ridge, series of MCVs from dissipated or weakening convection from the DelMarVa to nrn Middle TN will progress generally ewd and across the srn Middle Atlantic today. Deep layer flow will then strengthen and back to swly ahead of an intense, positively-tilted, full latitude, and increasingly-phased trough --one comprised of a srn stream cyclone now over CO and a vigorous nrn stream shortwave trough over MB-- forecast to stretch from wrn QC to the lwr MS Valley by 00Z Sat. At the surface, an outflow boundary/wind shift across the Virginias and lwr OH Valley, related to the aforementioned dissipated or weakening convection there, will drift ssewd and probably across the nrn Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain of NC by late this morning- midday. A synoptic front lags the outflow and was analyzed at 07Z from n-cntl DE through nrn VA and cntl WV. While this boundary will also move generally swd and in backdoor fashion across VA this morning, it will likely not move into the ne Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain of NC until later this afternoon and evening, where it will briefly stall. The front will then retreat nwd later tonight and Fri, as mass response strengthens ahead of the intense trough aloft and a related surface cyclone forecast to deepen considerably while tracking across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Fri. Temperatures today will be generally persistence ones equatorward of the approaching synoptic front, which will offer cooling throughout VA and only into the far ne Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain of NC. While heights throughout the column will fall ahead of the approaching trough aloft on Fri, related cooling will be limited over cntl NC until late in the day and more-so Fri night. As such, temperatures on Fri will again be near persistence ones, to perhaps a couple of degrees lower than previous days' warm sector ones. A gusty swly surface wind may take a little edge off the heat while also boosting the temperature at RDU to, or within a degree of, the latest 90 degree day and probably the third consecutive in this stretch, provided the backdoor front holds north of RDU as expected today. KEY MESSAGE 2... A strong cold front will sweep across central NC Friday evening, with a significant cooldown for the weekend. There is still some potential for patchy frost, but forecast uncertainty has increased. Aloft, a potent nrn stream s/w will drop into the upper MS Valley and track sewd across the Great Lakes Thu and Fri, deepening the trough over the ern US as it interacts with another s/w ejecting enewd from the cntl Rockies to the Great Lakes Thu/Thu night. The positively tilted trough will continue to amplify as it moves ewd across the eastern US and offshore over the weekend. Model spread has increased from Sat onward, with some more recent guidance showing a low developing within thetrough over the Carolinas Sat/Sat night, possibly lingering over the region for awhile, slowing the troughs ewd progression, while others develop a low offshore. At the surface, an area of low pressure lifting newd across the mid-MS and OH Valley on Thu will deepen as it continues across the Great Lakes and Northeast US Thu night/Fri. The trailing cold front will move across central NC late Fri evening into Fri night, currently progged to be moving into the nw Piedmont around 00Z Sat. A ~1037 mb Canadian high centered over the s-cntl Plains on Sat will build into the region in the wake of the front as it tracks newd across the mid-MS and OH Valley regions on Sat. There is some uncertainty beyond Sat, with some models showing a coastal low developing as along the front as it moves offshore, while others show a more progressive front continue ewd over the Atlantic. The latter solution would allow the high to settle over the mid- Atlantic, while the former would take the high enewd across the nrn mid-Atlantic/Northeast US on Sun. The varying solutions noted above will impact numerous weather parameters (temps, winds, precip, etc.), resulting in a low- confidence forecast Sat night onward. The chance for rain continues to increase, as does the duration, coverage, and uncertainty. Forecast amounts are still somewhat light, with generally a quarter of an inch or less expected Fri night through Sat night. The low-level jet is expected to strengthen over the area Fri eve, with 25-35 kts at 925mb. The pressure gradient will also be quite strong as a ~1037 mb high builds ewd. Expect gusty winds with and behind the front Fri eve through Sat. Temperatures should fall about 25-30 degrees from Friday aft to Sat morning. By Saturday, highs will be similar to the lows from Thu night (generally low to mid 60s). Keeping in mind the forecast uncertainty noted above, lows may drop another 10-15 degrees or so Sat night, as cold air advects into the area. For now expect lows to range from upper 30s NW to mid/upr 40s SE both Sat night and Sun night. However, if the more progressive solutions verify there could be some mid 30s lows over portions of the Piedmont both nights, possibly resulting in some patchy frost in the usual cooler, sheltered areas. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 155 AM Thursday... Light swly winds will persist ahead of an outflow boundary that may shift surface winds to light nely/ely at Piedmont sites and RWI late this morning. That boundary will be followed by a backdoor cold front that will settle into the far ne Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain of NC late this afternoon or this evening. IFR-MVFR ceilings are likely to develop behind that front, including at RWI, near the end of the 06Z TAF period. While the front and post-frontal ceilings are likely to hold just to the north of Piedmont sites, by perhaps 10-30 miles, a slight swwd shift of the location of the boundary would result in an increasing likelihood for flight restrictions at Piedmont sites tonight as well. Outlook: Gusty swly surface winds will develop ahead of a strong cold front on Fri, followed by a period of strong and gusty nwly surface winds with the passage of that front Fri night. There is a chance that the front will be accompanied by a shallow, broken line of convection (devoid of lightning) as it moves across cntl NC Fri night, followed by an area of post-frontal, stratiform rain that may linger into the day Sat. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 15: KGSO: 87/1985 KRDU: 88/1985 KFAY: 91/1931 October 16: KGSO: 85/1953 KRDU: 86/1925 KFAY: 90/1925 Record High Minimum Temperatures: October 15: KGSO: 63/1985 KRDU: 66/1942 KFAY: 67/1928 October 16: KGSO: 66/1947 Latest 90 Fdays: GSO: 10/12/1904 RDU: 10/10/1907 FAY: 10/26/1940 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWS/KC AVIATION...MWS CLIMATE...RAH  016 FXUS61 KAKQ 150714 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 314 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Timing for morning showers has trended slightly later and linger into the afternoon for northern sections. The Friday night/Saturday cold front has also trended slightly later, with higher rain chances lingering well into Saturday, and potentially into early next week along the coast. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the northern nearshore coastal waters and the lower Chesapeake Bay. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front drops southward this morning with increasing clouds and much cooler temperatures. Some light rain is forecast across the northern half of the area. 2) Warm and breezy Friday with gusty showers along the front Friday night into Saturday. Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 310 AM EDT Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front drops southward this morning with increasing clouds and much cooler temperatures. Some light rain is forecast across the northern half of the area. Surface observations show a cold front translating southward across the area as high pressure builds in from the NW. Satellite shows quite a bit of mid level cloud cover moving into the region. Radar shows some very light returns in the Piedmont but little if any precip is making it to the ground. Expect the front to continue southward through the morning with winds becoming NE as high pressure to the north allows for CAD to develop across the region. Becoming a bit breezy near the coast today. 00z guidance has continued the trend of shaving a degree or two off of previously forecast temperatures behind this backdoor front. Highs range from the mid 60s N, upper 60s to low 70s along S of I-64, and upper 70s to low 80s near and S of the VA/NC border. High temps will occur in the morning for the northern half of the area with temps holding steady or slowly falling thereafter as CAD strengthens. It still appears that there will be an uptick in precip coverage across the NW and N this morning into the afternoon. QPF will be light with 0.1- 0.15" across the north, tapering to a few hundredths near Richmond and little to nothing south of US-460. Some light rain or drizzle may linger into tonight, mainly for the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore. Low temps range from the upper 50s NW to the mid/upper 60s SE. KEY MESSAGE 2...Warm and breezy Friday with gusty showers along the front Friday night into Saturday. Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend. Today's front will lift northward as a warm front on Friday, scouring out the low level stable CAD airmass as an upper trough digs into the Midwest and strengthens a surface low over the eastern Great Lakes. High temps rebound into the mid and even upper 80s with breezy SW winds. It now appears that the daylight hours of Friday will be dry with the 00z models continuing to slow the progression of the strong front. PoPs increase after sunset, along and ahead of the surging cold front. Hi-res guidance shows the potential for thin strongly-forced line of convection along the front Friday evening. With the somewhat slower frontal timing, even less instability is available than it looked 24 hours ago. However, strong kinematics aloft will likely be able to mix down to the surface with wind gusts 30-40 mph possible as the front comes through. SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) across the the N and NE portions of the area for strong to severe wind gusts. There will be little if any thunder with these showers despite the potential for strong wind gusts. Models have continued to trend toward a more amplified upper level pattern across the SE CONUS this weekend. The NAM and ECMWF are the most bullish, developing a closed upper low and coastal surface low while the GFS/Canadian models are much more progressive. This bimodal split in the guidance leads to significant uncertainty regarding the sensible weather this weekend and likely well into next week. Regardless, it still appears that much colder air will spill into the area Saturday and Sunday with high temps in the mid 50s NW to the low/mid 60s SE. Rainfall chances and placement are where the highest uncertainty lies. The amplified solutions would result in rainfall continuing on Saturday and lingering potentially into early next week as low pressure lingers offshore. Have trended PoPs and QPF toward the coastal low scenario but with very low confidence at this time. Cold overnight lows Saturday night still appear on track but with more wind likely to diminish the potential for frost, even in the typically colder Piedmont spots. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions start the 06z/15 TAF period. A cold front is currently dropping south across the region with increasing clouds and northerly winds behind the boundary. Some light returns are noted on radar across the far northern counties but have decreased in coverage and intensity over the last hour or so. Clouds will continue to spread south and thicken/lower toward sunrise. MVFR CIGs likely at RIC around 12z, spreading south and east to PHF, ORF, and ECG in the 15-16z timeframe. SBY sees MVFR by this afternoon along with a chance for light rainfall. RIC will also likely see some rain but lower confidence in timing/coverage. The remaining terminals are forecast to stay dry but a shower or two may impact PHF. Winds become NE this morning and increase to 5-10 kt inland and 10-15 kt with gusts 15-20 kt at PHF and ORF by mid morning. Low-end MVFR CIGs this afternoon will approach IFR thresholds early this evening with IFR forecast late in the period. Outlook: The front will briefly lift back north of the area Friday, allowing a return to VFR conditions. Breezy SW winds develop by late morning and persist through the day. Deteriorating flying conditions return later Fri evening through Sat evening as a second, stronger cold front crosses the area. Additional rain chances and gusty NW winds are expected Sat morning into the afternoon post-frontal. && .MARINE... As of 310 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - NE winds increase behind a backdoor cold front this morning. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the coastal waters N of Cape Charles and the lower Chesapeake Bay. - A longer-duration wind event is likely along and behind a strong cold front beginning later Friday, potentially lingering through most of the weekend. NNW winds will likely frequently gust over 34 kt for a period of time. A backdoor cold front is dropping across the region early this morning, but hasn't quite made it to the local waters as ~3am obs. Obs still show WSW winds around 10kt, seas around 2ft, and waves in the bay around 1ft. Winds will gradually become NE behind the front from N to S between this writing and ~8/9am. These winds will be breezy and near or just above advisory criteria at 15-20kt. Winds should peak around mid-morning with highest winds over coastal waters north of Cape Charles and in the lower Ches. Bay. Small Craft Advisories are unchanged from the previous issuance and are in effect for the nearshore coastal waters north of Cape Charles, the mouth of the bay, and the lower bay. Winds diminish during the late afternoon into the evening becoming easterly. Southwest flow then returns early Friday morning ahead of the next front. SSW flow ramps up to 15-20kt again on Friday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the stronger front. Strong CAA behind the front over the still-warm waters will lead to windy conditions. Confidence is high in at least strong SCA conditions with confidence in gale-force gusts continuing to increase. North winds increase to 25-30kt behind the front with gusts potentially as high as 40kt. Local wind probs continue to show 70-90% for 34kt+ gusts for much of the Ches Bay and especially the coastal waters south of Cape Charles for Saturday. Winds become more NE and remain in at least the strong SCA range through Sunday morning. Still just a bit early for Gale Watches, but they will likely be going up soon. Seas are also expected to increase substantially and could possibly exceed 6-9 ft. Uncertainty is increased past early Sunday, though, now that the possibility of coastal low pressure developing has been introduced by guidance. There is still a large spread in the strength and positioning of this potential low, which of course has a large impact on the winds. Previous forecasts had winds dropping off quickly Sunday as high pressure built in behind the front, but deepening low pressure along the coast would mean a continuation of strong onshore flow into early next week. Regardless, onshore flow of some sort looks to remain for much of the next week, so elevated seas will probably take a while to come down to below advisory level. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ632-634-654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650- 652. && $$ DISCUSSION...RHR AVIATION...RHR MARINE...AC CLIMATE...  069 FXUS63 KMQT 150715 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 315 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active weather returns this afternoon through Friday as a deepening low pressure system works through the Great Lakes bringing periods of rain and gusty N to NW winds. - Hazardous marine weather is expected Friday. Northerly wind gusts to 50 kts are possible (25-50% chance), creating significant wave heights between 15-20 ft. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Early morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined trough moving across the Canadian Prairie, and another midlevel low spinning over the Rockies. To the east, the midlevel ridge axis is directed right over the Great Lakes. At the surface, this all translates to surface lows currently centered over Manitoba and Oklahoma, and high pressure centered over central Ontario. Closer to home, we remain under a blanket of low clouds, though some mid and upper-level cloud cover associated with Plains convection is beginning to stream into the area amid southerly flow developing aloft. Ample cloud cover has kept temperatures several degrees warmer than expected tonight, with most of the area currently in the mid 40s and only expected to bottom out in the lower 40s and perhaps upper 30s. Guidance continues to agree on the Canadian and Rockies features to phase near NE/SD this afternoon, with a surface low deepening to 1007-1009mb near Chicago by 00Z Friday. Warm advection out ahead of this kicks off a batch of widespread rain across the area this afternoon and evening, with this initial batch dropping widespread totals around 0.50-0.75" by 06Z. The cold front passes through the second half of the night, with 850mb temperatures eventually falling to around -5 to -7C into Friday afternoon. Thus, expect a transition over to lake effect/enhanced rain from 06Z onwards, with rain gradually becoming isolated to the northerly wind belts Friday morning and afternoon. Additional totals around 0.25-0.75" are expected, with the highest across the upsloping areas over the north- central UP and the Porcupines. Wouldn't surprise me to see some wet snow mix into areas of the interior highlands early and then late Friday as freezing levels fall to ~1000 ft AGL, but no accumulations are expected. Meanwhile, Friday morning through Fri afternoon the surface low feature deepens while departing northeast atop the Lower Lakes, placing Upper Michigan on the northwestern flank. Strong cold air advection and stout pressure rises (upwards of 1-2mb/hr) will contribute to northerly wind speeds reaching 25-35 kts gusting 45-50 kts on Lake Superior and the adjacent lakeshores. There is still some uncertainty regarding the maximum gust potential as ensembles (NBM and ENS) have decreased the probability of Storm Force gusts in the central lake (20-50% chance) and model soundings don't highlight mixing into any 50 kts gust layers. As winds settle late Friday and dry high pressure clears skies from west to east, temperatures will drop like a rock overnight into Saturday morning, reaching the mid to low 20s for much if not all of the interior while some lakeshores may reach freezing for the first time this fall. Ridging and dry weather dominate through the rest of the weekend with the potential for another warm up / fire weather pattern Sunday into Monday. Similar to last weekend's fire weather setup, ensembles suggest a 50-75% chance for S to SW winds gusting to 35 mph in the typical downslope locations of the west and central UP and minimum RHs falling to near 30% in the interior west and central. Luckily, temperatures are only slated to peak into the 60s. Fire partners and adjacent parties should continue to monitor the forecast as containment and mopup efforts for ongoing wildfires may still be ongoing. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 109 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Low end VFR to MVFR cigs persist this morning accompanied by calm conditions as high pressure passes overhead. Deterioration down to IFR is expected with rain this afternoon as another system moves in from the west. Expect rain to arrive at IWD around 16Z, followed by CMX at 19Z, and SAW at around 21Z. Although periods of LIFR can't be ruled out at IWD/CMX, mention was only added to SAW for now as exact timing and duration remains uncertain in the western UP. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Lake Superior: Light southeast winds early this morning shift southerly into the daytime, gusting to around 15-20kts ahead of a strong cold front tonight into Friday morning. This strong cold front accompanies a deepening low pressure system that works through the Lower Great Lakes on Friday. Strong cold advection and rapid pressure rises will create sustained winds near gale force with gusts reaching 40-50 kts in the central lake Friday morning. Gales of 35-45kts are expected elsewhere across the lake. Significant wave heights build between 15-20 feet, highest along the southern lakeshores. Winds and waves slowly subside lake into early Saturday. A Gale Warning is in effect for the entire lake on Friday. Winds briefly fall back Friday night while shifting over to the SW, but then SW gales will be possible across the western arm of the lake as early as 12Z Saturday (50% chance), lingering through Sunday before winds quickly fall back below 20kts into Monday. Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Light easterly winds turn more to the southeast after daybreak, ahead of a strong cold front that whips through the northern bay and lake late tonight to early Friday. Northwest winds quickly ramp up between 35-40 kts Friday with waves building between 5-8 ft. Winds and waves subside below gale force Friday night. A Gale Warning is in effect for all N Lake Michigan marine zones on Friday. Winds briefly fall back below 20kts early Saturday morning while shifting to the SW, but then gusts pick up to 20-25kts into the afternoon with gales possible by early Sunday (50% chance). Winds quickly fall back below 20kts into Monday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for LSZ162-240>242-263. Gale Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for LSZ243-244-264. Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for LSZ245>251-265>267. Lake Michigan... Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for LMZ221-248-250. && $$ DISCUSSION...BW/LC AVIATION...77 MARINE...BW/LC  124 FXUS61 KPHI 150716 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 316 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Aviation section for the 06Z TAFs. Updated Key Message 1. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A cold front continues to sag south through the region early this morning. A warm front lifts north through the region tonight. 2. A strong cold frontal passage Friday evening will bring windy conditions, showers and potential for some thunderstorms, and colder temperatures into the weekend. 3. Widespread frost and freeze conditions are increasingly likely Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front continues to sag south through the region early this morning. A warm front lifts north through the region tonight. A cold front continues to sag south through the region early this morning, and northerly winds will usher a cooler and drier airmass into the region. Surface dew points will fall into the 40s and 50s throughout the area by this afternoon, and high temperatures today will be much cooler than Wednesday. Highs today will be some 15 to 20 degrees cooler than Wednesday, topping off in the low to mid 60s. Low pressure then develops over the Midwest today and lifts to the northeast into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by this evening, then towards the southern Province of Ontario by Friday morning. This will pull a warm front north through the region. Clouds will lower and thicken, and rain begins to develop late. KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold frontal passage Friday evening will bring windy conditions, showers and potential for some thunderstorms, and colder temperatures into the weekend. A sharp trough will begin shifting southeastward towards the region from the Upper Midwest late this week. Slow height falls aloft will begin across the area late Thursday night, with rapid height falls through the day on Friday. The trough axis currently looks to pass through the region late Friday night or early Saturday morning. At the surface, a warm front will lift northward through the region Thursday night into Friday morning, with a strong cold front passing through Friday evening into Friday night. Guidance continues to indicate a slower system which continues to delay the timing of the cold frontal passage somewhat. Currently, it appears likely that isentropic ascent will lead to a broad area of mostly light showers north of the warm front late Thursday night into the first part of the day Friday. Once the region is in the warm sector, additional showers will likely mostly hold off until the cold front approaches. In the warm sector, warm and moist southwesterly flow will be taking place with temperatures surging into the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Some destabilization is likely to take place, although the window will likely only be a few hours long. Guidance currently indicates a narrow corridor ahead of the front of around 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While instability will be modest, wind fields aloft will be quite strong, with 500 mb flow exceeding 60 kt. Scattered to widespread showers and some storms are likely to form along and immediately ahead of the cold front. It remains a possibility that a few storms could become severe, with damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard. The cold front and accompanying showers and storms will clear the area from west to east Friday evening into Friday night. In the wake of the cold front, much cooler and drier air is expected to infiltrate the region. In addition, breezy northwest winds look to impact the area overnight Friday night and through much of the day Saturday. Right now, it looks like there could be an extended period of wind gusts in the 30-40 mph range, but it is not out of the question that winds could be a bit higher and the need for wind headlines still cannot be ruled out. Either way, it will be a much cooler day on Saturday, with highs only topping out in the 40s across the Poconos and far northern NJ, and low to mid 50s areawide. KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread frost and freeze conditions are increasingly likely Saturday night. Saturday night as the trough axis shifts east away from the region and high pressure builds in at the surface, the coldest air so far this season is expected across the entire area. Skies will likely be mostly clear, with winds quickly diminishing. This could set the stage for very good radiational cooling conditions. As a result, low temperatures are expected to fall below freezing across the Poconos, potentially southward into portions of the Lehigh Valley, and adjacent areas of far northern NJ. For much of the rest of the area, lows in the mid 30s to near 40 are expected. Rural areas even across southeastern PA and southern NJ cannot entirely rule out seeing their first freeze of the year. Regardless, a fairly widespread frost is expected across eastern PA and most of NJ, and some patchy frost can't be ruled out farther south into Delmarva either. Trends will continue to be monitored, but frost and/or freeze headlines appear increasingly likely to be needed in upcoming forecast cycles. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Early this morning...VFR. N winds around 10 kt. High confidence. Today...VFR. N winds around 10 kt, veering to the E this afternoon, then SE late. High confidence. Tonight...VFR initially, then MVFR, and IFR CIGs develop late. Potential for MVFR VSBYs in RA. SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S late. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Friday through Friday night...Sub-VFR conditions likely in showers and a few thunderstorms. Showers and storms will clear from west to east Friday night, though gusty northwest winds will set in. Saturday...VFR. Gusty northwest winds. Saturday night through Monday...VFR. No significant weather. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for for the Atlantic coastal waters from Cape May to Fenwick Island until 11 am. Behind a cold front, north winds will average 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, except up to 25 kt for the Delaware ocean waters this morning. Winds become east by this afternoon, then southeast late. Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt turn south late tonight. Outlook... Friday through Friday night...Advisory conditions likely to develop by late afternoon Friday as southwesterly winds pick up to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt. Friday night, winds will shift to northwesterly with a cold frontal passage and increase further. Gales will be possible. Seas increasing to 4-6 feet. Showers and a few storms will likely lead to visibility restrictions. Saturday through Sunday...Advisory conditions likely to continue through Saturday and even Saturday night with northwesterly winds potentially gusting to near gale force through the daytime hours Saturday before beginning to decrease Saturday night. Winds and seas will likely subside to below advisory criteria through the day Sunday. Sunday night through Monday...No marine headlines currently anticipated with winds below 25 kt and seas below 5 feet. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for ANZ430-431-450>455-480>483-485. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ454-455. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cooper/MPS AVIATION...Cooper/MPS MARINE...Cooper/MPSPHI-689588  127 FXUS61 KPHI 150716 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 316 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Aviation section for the 06Z TAFs. Updated Key Message 1. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A cold front continues to sag south through the region early this morning. A warm front lifts north through the region tonight. 2. A strong cold frontal passage Friday evening will bring windy conditions, showers and potential for some thunderstorms, and colder temperatures into the weekend. 3. Widespread frost and freeze conditions are increasingly likely Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front continues to sag south through the region early this morning. A warm front lifts north through the region tonight. A cold front continues to sag south through the region early this morning, and northerly winds will usher a cooler and drier airmass into the region. Surface dew points will fall into the 40s and 50s throughout the area by this afternoon, and high temperatures today will be much cooler than Wednesday. Highs today will be some 15 to 20 degrees cooler than Wednesday, topping off in the low to mid 60s. Low pressure then develops over the Midwest today and lifts to the northeast into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by this evening, then towards the southern Province of Ontario by Friday morning. This will pull a warm front north through the region. Clouds will lower and thicken, and rain begins to develop late. KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold frontal passage Friday evening will bring windy conditions, showers and potential for some thunderstorms, and colder temperatures into the weekend. A sharp trough will begin shifting southeastward towards the region from the Upper Midwest late this week. Slow height falls aloft will begin across the area late Thursday night, with rapid height falls through the day on Friday. The trough axis currently looks to pass through the region late Friday night or early Saturday morning. At the surface, a warm front will lift northward through the region Thursday night into Friday morning, with a strong cold front passing through Friday evening into Friday night. Guidance continues to indicate a slower system which continues to delay the timing of the cold frontal passage somewhat. Currently, it appears likely that isentropic ascent will lead to a broad area of mostly light showers north of the warm front late Thursday night into the first part of the day Friday. Once the region is in the warm sector, additional showers will likely mostly hold off until the cold front approaches. In the warm sector, warm and moist southwesterly flow will be taking place with temperatures surging into the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Some destabilization is likely to take place, although the window will likely only be a few hours long. Guidance currently indicates a narrow corridor ahead of the front of around 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While instability will be modest, wind fields aloft will be quite strong, with 500 mb flow exceeding 60 kt. Scattered to widespread showers and some storms are likely to form along and immediately ahead of the cold front. It remains a possibility that a few storms could become severe, with damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard. The cold front and accompanying showers and storms will clear the area from west to east Friday evening into Friday night. In the wake of the cold front, much cooler and drier air is expected to infiltrate the region. In addition, breezy northwest winds look to impact the area overnight Friday night and through much of the day Saturday. Right now, it looks like there could be an extended period of wind gusts in the 30-40 mph range, but it is not out of the question that winds could be a bit higher and the need for wind headlines still cannot be ruled out. Either way, it will be a much cooler day on Saturday, with highs only topping out in the 40s across the Poconos and far northern NJ, and low to mid 50s areawide. KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread frost and freeze conditions are increasingly likely Saturday night. Saturday night as the trough axis shifts east away from the region and high pressure builds in at the surface, the coldest air so far this season is expected across the entire area. Skies will likely be mostly clear, with winds quickly diminishing. This could set the stage for very good radiational cooling conditions. As a result, low temperatures are expected to fall below freezing across the Poconos, potentially southward into portions of the Lehigh Valley, and adjacent areas of far northern NJ. For much of the rest of the area, lows in the mid 30s to near 40 are expected. Rural areas even across southeastern PA and southern NJ cannot entirely rule out seeing their first freeze of the year. Regardless, a fairly widespread frost is expected across eastern PA and most of NJ, and some patchy frost can't be ruled out farther south into Delmarva either. Trends will continue to be monitored, but frost and/or freeze headlines appear increasingly likely to be needed in upcoming forecast cycles. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Early this morning...VFR. N winds around 10 kt. High confidence. Today...VFR. N winds around 10 kt, veering to the E this afternoon, then SE late. High confidence. Tonight...VFR initially, then MVFR, and IFR CIGs develop late. Potential for MVFR VSBYs in RA. SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S late. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Friday through Friday night...Sub-VFR conditions likely in showers and a few thunderstorms. Showers and storms will clear from west to east Friday night, though gusty northwest winds will set in. Saturday...VFR. Gusty northwest winds. Saturday night through Monday...VFR. No significant weather. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for for the Atlantic coastal waters from Cape May to Fenwick Island until 11 am. Behind a cold front, north winds will average 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, except up to 25 kt for the Delaware ocean waters this morning. Winds become east by this afternoon, then southeast late. Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt turn south late tonight. Outlook... Friday through Friday night...Advisory conditions likely to develop by late afternoon Friday as southwesterly winds pick up to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt. Friday night, winds will shift to northwesterly with a cold frontal passage and increase further. Gales will be possible. Seas increasing to 4-6 feet. Showers and a few storms will likely lead to visibility restrictions. Saturday through Sunday...Advisory conditions likely to continue through Saturday and even Saturday night with northwesterly winds potentially gusting to near gale force through the daytime hours Saturday before beginning to decrease Saturday night. Winds and seas will likely subside to below advisory criteria through the day Sunday. Sunday night through Monday...No marine headlines currently anticipated with winds below 25 kt and seas below 5 feet. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for ANZ430-431-450>455-480>483-485. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ454-455. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cooper/MPS AVIATION...Cooper/MPS MARINE...Cooper/MPS  155 FXUS63 KABR 150716 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 216 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain lingers over the region this morning, eventually exiting to the south and east by the early afternoon. The highest accumulations, around a tenth to a quarter of an inch, will remain over south central South Dakota. - Northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph are expected to develop this afternoon and evening across central and north central South Dakota behind a cold front. A Wind Advisory has been issued for all counties west of Brown and Spink from late this morning through early Friday morning. - Strong winds combined with drier air behind the cold front passing through will push Grassland Fire Danger up into the High to Very High category this afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain showers are moving in this morning, and as of ~07Z much of the forecast area has scattered showers overhead. Generally light rainfall rates are expected, and south central South Dakota is still expected to see the highest accumulation totals. There, a tenth to a quarter of an inch is expected, with some locally higher amounts possible. Outside of central South Dakota, only expecting a few hundredths of rainfall in total. These showers will slowly exit the forecast area to the south and east later this morning to perhaps the early afternoon at the latest. Behind a cold front passing through today, winds will turn northwesterly and increase. Latest probability guidance gives a 60- 80% chance to reach Wind Advisory criteria (gusts up to 45 miles per hour) through the afternoon through the early overnight period along and west of the Missouri River, a number that is likely underdone given known model biases. Strongest gusts are expected to reach up to 55 miles per hour. There is even some minor signal (isolated 10- 20% chance) for some 58+ mile per hour winds, but confidence is not nearly high enough to warrant an upgrade to current headlines. Instead sticking with a Wind Advisory, but have made a few adjustments with this forecast package. First, Buffalo, Hyde, Hand, and Faulk Counties have been added to the Advisory. Secondly, the arrival time of the strong winds will be a bit earlier than previously anticipated, and counties west of the Missouri River now have the Advisory start at 15Z today. All other counties west of Brown and Spink remain at the 18Z start time, and both groups are set to expire at 09Z, a slight extension in time from the previous product issuance. Strong winds will travel eastward and persist through the overnight to early morning hours over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. An additional Wind Advisory may be necessary, but highest gusts are borderline criteria in that area. At this time no Advisory will be issued for that area, but that may change with further forecast updates. Skies over central and north central South Dakota will gradually clear out early Friday morning, while northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota are expected to remain under a bit heavier cloud cover. With near-normal temperatures in place through the week, this means that overnight lows will have a chance to drop below freezing, particularly over areas that clear out. Confidence is much lower in the potential for clouded areas to reach below freezing. Without a hard freeze yet this season, Frost and Freeze headlines will still be on the table Friday morning over north central South Dakota. Temperatures may once again dip below freezing Friday night into Saturday morning, and a headline cannot be ruled out there either. However, full humidity recovery is not expected Saturday morning, so frost may struggle to develop. Over the weekend and into next week, an upper-level ridge is set to move overhead. As a result, a warmer airmass will be allowed into the region, pushing 850mb temperatures to 15-20 degrees Celsius over the weekend. These temperatures are above the 90th percentile for this time of year, which will translate to highs in the upper 60s to low 70s over the weekend (roughly 10-15 degrees above normal). In terms of precipitation, dry conditions are expected through the weekend and into the start of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Band of -SHRA/SHRA moving northward across the region at TAF issuance (06Z) and may bring a couple hour period of 4-6SM VSBY at KABR/KATY. This band will be through KPIR at 06Z and just on the edge of KMBG to where VC (vicinity) will be mentioned. Additional chances for -SHRA through the morning hours on Thursday and will use PROB30 to handle this. CIGs are still MVFR at KABR/KATY with no clear indication on when they will depart. That said, there are signs more so in KABR for brief improvements to VFR later this morning before more MVFR CIGs overspread KABR and the rest of the region tonight. Strong northwest surface winds gusting from 35 to 45 kts will develop from west to east across the region during the late morning and afternoon hours. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Friday for SDZ003-015-033-045-048. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT Friday for SDZ004-005-009-010-016-017-034>037-051. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BC AVIATION...TMT  214 FXUS64 KFWD 150719 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 219 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast for western North TX through Thursday night. - A strong cold front this evening/tonight will bring windy conditions on Friday. Peak wind gusts to around 40 mph are likely much of the day. - Much cooler and quiet conditions are expected this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 An active convective pattern will continue to unfold across West TX and Oklahoma early this morning with disturbances moving through the SW flow aloft, ahead of the upper level trough ejecting into the Central Plains later today. Some of this activity has reached primarily our western Red River counties this morning, with scattered showers and a storm or two expected to continue impacting our northwest counties through the morning (40-60%). For most of the area, the remainder of the overnight hours will be quiet with broken low clouds and south winds 10-15 mph. This trend should continue through the morning hours with much of the region remaining rain-free during the first half of the day. With low clouds scattering out, highs will climb into the 80s and low 90s ahead of the cold front. Low-level moisture being drawn northward will pool along the front, while drier air has infiltrated the southeast. Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop across western North TX during the afternoon and evening as the front approaches. Rain chances will be highest generally from Cisco to Mineral Wells to Gainesville (60-80%) with activity becoming more isolated heading east and southeast. This is in part due to the drier air, particularly in the midlevels across much of the forecast area. As the front moves through elsewhere, a quick band of showers may develop with the lift from the front and sufficient low-level moisture, but anything beyond a period of brief, light rain is unlikely for areas east of I-35. For areas in between, including the I-35 corridor in North TX and all of western Central TX, isolated showers/storms are possible, but coverage should decrease as the front approaches, with a 30-50% chance of seeing any rain. Across our western and northwestern counties, modest instability may support a couple of stronger storms with gusty winds, but the overall threat is low and severe weather is not expected. Otherwise, as the front enters our northwestern counties late this afternoon and early evening, a sharp northerly wind shift is anticipated with temperatures dropping into the 70s and eventually into the 60s from the NW to the SE. Winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph behind the front Thursday night with gusts of 30-35 mph through midnight. After midnight, the gustier conditions are expected into Friday with a few peak gusts of 40-45 mph. Lows tonight in the wake of the front will drop into the low 50s NW to low 60s SE. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 In the wake of the cold front, gusty north winds will continue Friday as high pressure builds southward through the Plains. A strong pressure gradient across the region will support sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts mostly to 40 mph, while continued cold air advection will keep temperatures in the low 60s across the northwest to the low 70s in the Brazos Valley. Be sure to secure any Halloween decorations due to the gusty winds and use caution if driving high profile vehicles on E-W roads. Gusty winds will gradually diminish Friday night, with highs in the 60s areawide Saturday. High pressure will remain in control through the rest of the weekend, with winds gradually shifting to the east on Sunday. Temperatures will moderate slightly Sunday, climbing back into the 70s, with a return to low 80s for much of the area by Tuesday as southerly flow returns. Latest guidance has trended towards a slower return of moisture into mid to late week, with the NBM a few degrees cooler Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures should remain closer to normal early next week before highs return to the mid and upper 80s Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions currently prevail with broken low clouds just off to the northwest and southwest of D10 and Waco at this time. Have adjusted the timing of the MVFR potential slightly from 10Z-14Z based on latest trends. South winds around 11-16 kts will continue much of today before the arrival of a cold front Thursday evening. Winds will quickly shift to the north behind the front, increasing to 15-20 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts. A few showers and storms may accompany the front, but the greatest potential for this still remains further west. FROPA timing has been adjusted slightly in line with the latest guidance, now closer to 01Z for D10 and 04Z for Waco. A deck of lower end VFR stratus is expected behind the front, but confidence in immediate arrival of MVFR cigs is low, so this trend has been adjusted slightly. Cigs of 3000-5000 ft are likely just behind the front, then lowering to MVFR for several hours before a north to south clearing occurs Friday AM. Timing and extent of these ceilings is more uncertain given the dependency on FROPA and will be monitored. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 59 65 49 / 20 40 0 0 Waco 89 60 68 49 / 10 30 10 0 Paris 89 57 65 46 / 0 30 0 0 Denton 89 54 64 45 / 40 50 0 0 McKinney 88 56 64 44 / 10 40 0 0 Dallas 91 60 67 49 / 10 40 0 0 Terrell 89 58 66 47 / 10 20 0 0 Corsicana 89 60 67 48 / 0 20 0 0 Temple 90 61 70 48 / 0 40 10 0 Mineral Wells 89 55 64 43 / 50 80 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gordon LONG TERM....Gordon AVIATION...Gordon  317 FXUS65 KABQ 150722 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 122 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1223 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - The first freeze of the season for the upper Rio Grande Valley, including Taos, is occurring this morning. - A backdoor cold front will sweep south and west across the area today, creating strong north winds across eastern NM and strong east canyon or gap winds into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys by this evening. - The first freeze of the season is forecast late tonight into Friday morning for areas from Raton, to Las Vegas, and Moriarty. Even colder conditions are forecast Friday night. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1223 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The latest water vapor satellite imagery shows the weakening upper low pulling northeast into northeast CO while leaving weak troughing in it's wake across the Four Corners region into central AZ. Cold air advection behind yesterday's frontal passage is resulting in the coldest night so far this season and the Freeze Warning for the upper RGV is on track. The forecast for today through Friday is mostly unchanged and involves a 2nd low closing off over AZ and then retrograding southwest to over the Baja Peninsula as a strong backdoor cold front races southwest across NM. Windy and notably colder conditions will follow behind the backdoor cold front later today/tonight. The existing Wind Advisory for northeast NM is supported well be the latest guidance, but have added Curry and Roosevelt Counties based on the latest guidance and with a slightly later start time based on the forecast timing of the frontal passage. A strong east canyon/gap wind is still forecast this evening for the middle/lower RGV, South Central Highlands and upper Tularosa Valley. The latest MOS guidance continues a downtrend in forecast speeds at KABQ, with only the GFS LAMP showing high wind warning-type speeds. That said, have upgraded the watch to a warning as there are moderate to high probabilities for gusts to 50kts or greater, especially closer the the mouth of the canyons. A Freeze Watch is still in effect for late Thursday night into Friday morning for the first freeze of the season for portions of northeast and east central NM. There is some forecast uncertainty with regard to temperatures early Friday morning due to winds being slow to decouple and the pressure gradient possibly holding on longer. Friday will definitely feel like fall, with high temperatures forecast to be 5-15 degrees below average. The east canyon/gap wind into the Rio Grande and upper Tularosa Valleys will be slow to diminish Friday, but will dip below warning criteria by mid morning. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1223 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Significant drying of the atmosphere is forecast across NM going into Saturday, with ridging aloft as the retrograding upper low pulls up stationary offshore of the Baja Peninsula and wraps moisture from Tropical Storm Simon into it's circulation. Near- ideal radiational cooling conditions Friday night into Saturday morning with a very dry airmass in place will bring an even colder night with a hard freeze forecast across much of the area. A Freeze Watch will be required for the east central/southeast plains and perhaps the middle RGV for Friday night as those forecast zones experience their 1st freeze of the season. The Baja low is forecast to fill and open up while lifting northeast as a shortwave trough from Sunday into Monday, bringing moisture and clouds to NM but with low chances for precipitation due to very weak forcing associated with the trough. All eyes turn to the west coast Tuesday as the jet stream dives south and brings a stronger upper low into SoCal by Wednesday. Moisture advection will be the rule across NM going into mid week, with increasing precipitation chances from mid through late week as the upper low swings east across the region. There are still some timing differences with regard to the upper low passage over the region late next week, but not as disparate as previous model cycles. Thursday looks to be the wettest day next week across NM, with 700mb temperatures supportive of snow across the mountain peaks. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 LIFR cigs prevail behind a backdoor cold front across east central and northeast NM, but VFR conditions prevail at TAF sites and are forecast to persist through the TAF period. A strong backdoor cold front will move southwest across the area Thursday afternoon and evening, resulting in a wind shift and gusty winds at TAF sites. A strong east canyon wind will develop behind the front at KABQ Thursday evening, with gusts to between 40-50kts. An Airport Weather Warning will be required for KABQ. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1223 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. A strong backdoor cold front will race southwest across the area later today and tonight, bringing windy conditions and notably colder temperatures. Significant drying of the atmosphere is forecast Friday into Saturday and minimum humidity will plummet. Humidity will be back on the upswing Sunday into Monday as a weak Pacific low approaches from the southwest and brings tropical moisture to the region, but with low chances for wetting precipitation. A more significant Pacific low will impact the region from mid through late next week with higher humidity and good chances for wetting precipitation. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 62 39 64 35 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 62 28 65 26 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 61 34 58 28 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 59 34 64 25 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 60 35 60 26 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 61 36 62 28 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 63 37 61 31 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 61 38 58 32 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 60 35 57 29 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 69 39 64 32 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 75 45 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 55 29 60 29 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 60 37 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 61 33 58 27 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 58 29 56 27 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 48 23 48 22 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 54 20 51 12 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 61 28 59 22 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 57 28 55 26 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 67 37 63 29 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 62 35 59 30 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 64 34 61 28 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 69 43 61 36 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 70 45 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 71 44 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 70 42 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 71 44 66 30 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 70 42 64 33 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 71 43 65 29 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 71 42 64 33 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 71 45 65 29 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 67 41 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 70 42 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 70 45 65 36 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 62 36 56 30 / 0 0 5 0 Tijeras......................... 65 38 59 31 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 64 35 58 28 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 66 35 59 19 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 60 33 53 26 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 63 35 56 27 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 64 36 56 27 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 70 42 57 33 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 63 35 50 28 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 52 29 50 24 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 58 31 55 22 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 62 32 58 20 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 58 32 57 25 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 57 36 55 27 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 60 35 57 24 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 69 42 62 30 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 67 41 60 30 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 69 43 60 31 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 68 42 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 70 45 58 30 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 70 45 61 31 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 77 50 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 70 41 56 32 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 69 39 53 30 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from noon today to midnight MDT tonight for NMZ227- 228-230-231. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for NMZ222- 223-228>230. High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday for NMZ219-220-224-225. Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for NMZ216. Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight MDT tonight for NMZ235-236. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11  596 FXUS63 KILX 150729 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 229 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers will develop this morning, become more numerous through midday, and taper off from west to east tonight. Thunderstorms are also possible, especially this afternoon and evening. Rainfall amounts are likely to be around a half inch for most areas, but localized swaths of 1 to 3 inches are possible this afternoon and evening. - Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening near and south of I-72. SPC has a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather, including a 5 percent damaging wind risk and 2 percent tornado risk. - Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are likely Friday morning through afternoon. The stronger winds will be northwest of I-55. - Much cooler weather will settle into the region Friday through the weekend potentially resulting in areas of frost both Saturday and Sunday mornings. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A cold front now well south of the area early this morning will lift northward as a surface low developing in the southern Plains lifts northeastward toward central IL. The front should lift through central IL during the afternoon hours, bringing 70 degree dewpoints to much of the area and SBCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg to around to I-72 corridor, coincident with 40-50 kt deep layer shear. 150-250 Storm Relative Helicity values are also forecast in this area, suggesting a few tornadoes will be possible. SPC has a Marginal Risk for Severe thunderstorms for a threat of locally damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes possible. The cold front trailing the low should begin to push into west central IL by afternoon, and cross the remainder of central and southeast IL through the evening hours. High resolution models depict scattered showers developing mainly west of I-57 this morning as an initial upper level disturbance and low level moist-warm advection takes place. A small break is then depicted before another disturbance and the warm front approaches mid morning into early afternoon. While many high-res models decrease shower coverage during the afternoon hours, this is also the period where a few models depict a few supercells developing in the warm sector behind the warm front, with significant scatter among model solutions on when/where breaks or supercells will be developing. More consistency develops with clearing behind the cold front, as showers look to end west of I-55 by midnight, west of I-57 by 4 AM Friday, and throughout IL by 7 AM Friday. High resolution model ensembles depict average precipitation amounts of around a half inch, but also depict a few swaths of 1 to 3 inches. This rainfall will generally be beneficial with mostly dry conditions preceding the past few days, but 2 to 3 inch amounts could produce some locally excessive amounts and WPC indicates a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall from around I-72 southward. Behind tonight's strong cold front, a strong pressure gradient develops over the area for Friday, which should set up 15-20 mph northwest winds, with gusts 30-40 mph, with the higher values west of I-55. A potent upper level shortwave and 500 mb cold pocket of minus 25 C will promote scattered shower activity and cloud cover. Highs should only reach the mid 50s for a very cold/blustery feel compared with recent record warmth. Friday night, high pressure will migrate eastward toward the Mississippi Valley, weakening the pressure gradient over especially western portions of central IL. With temperatures dropping into the mid 30s and the light winds, it appears areas of frost will develop west of I-57, but to the east enough wind should remain to keep temperatures in the upper 30s without frost. By Sunday morning, the high should migrate toward the mid-Atlantic coast, with winds already beginning to pick up from the south by morning. Nevertheless, mid-30s temperatures and frost potential looks to cover the entire area as the wind will likely be too little/too late to prevent it. Southerly flow and a building ridge of high pressure will bring a warming trend starting Sunday, raising highs from upper 50s Saturday to upper 60s Sunday. Further warming through midweek should bring highs to mid to upper 70s by Wednesday. Dry conditions will continue Saturday through midweek under the influence of the surface high followed by upper ridge. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Ceilings are hovering in the 3,000 foot vicinity across central Illinois, but should solidly be below 2,000 feet by 12z. As Friday morning progresses, ceilings should deteriorate further as rain moves up from the southwest, and a period of IFR conditions is most likely at KPIA (40-70% chance) by late morning. Some modest improvement is expected later in the afternoon as a warm front lifts northward, with a brief period of VFR conditions possible from KSPI-KCMI toward 00z, but any improvement will be short lived as more low clouds follow the arrival of a cold front from the northwest in the evening. East/northeast winds are expected to become more southerly toward 18z as the warm front lifts through. Late in the period, expect west/northwest winds behind the cold front, with some gusts 20-25 knots from KBMI-KSPI west. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...37 DISCUSSION...37 AVIATION...Geelhart  949 FXUS62 KMHX 150732 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 332 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Stratiform rain chances continue to increase Saturday. Chances for low pressure forming offshore increasing, strength of low still uncertain. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry with record heat possible through Friday. 2) Cold front moves through early Saturday, forming a low pressure system offshore. 3) Drastically cooler behind the front and low for Sunday, along with continued breezy northeasterly winds. Marine: Prolonged large seas this weekend into next week as offshore front stalls with long period fetch of northeasterly swell and increasing chances of low pressure development off the southeast coast. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure builds in from the west through most of this week with sunny skies. Building hts as upper ridge strengthens sends temps soaring through the 80s and nearing 90 for some interior locales (record high climate section below). A dry back door front moves into nrn parts of ENC later today with some increasing cloud cover and slightly cooler temps behind it, but quickly retreats north by early Friday with another surge of swrly flow ahead of much stronger front. KEY MESSAGE 2...Trend of a delayed frontal progression continues, with majority of guidance suggesting a low pressure forms offshore as the front encounters the higher baroclinicity of the Gulf Stream. A trend towards a slower frontal arrival and progression, with low pres development along the frontal zone on Saturday. In addition, stratiform rain chances continue increasing behind the front Saturday. There seem to be three camps of model guidance, ALL of which result in hazardous marine conditions and some level of coastal concerns as high building in pinches the pressure gradient over ENC. 1. The first and most likely outcome (would currently give this a 60% chance of occurring) is a low pressure system forms pretty soon after the cold front reaches the Gulf Stream, as early as 00Z Sunday. The is supported by the 00Z Thursday runs of Euro (deterministic and ensemble), Euro AI, RRFS, and NAM. There is still a wide range of outcomes for strength, but weak steering flow should allow the low pressure system to meander offshore, tapping into the warm gulf stream waters and deepening. Eventual track and strength are still very uncertain. While unlikely, an eventual westward track back towards ENC is not out of the question. 2. The second outcome (would currently give this a 30% chance of occuring) is the front stalls along the Gulf Stream, forming a low hundreds of miles offshore a later on (around Mon-Tue). This outcome is supported by the deterministic GFS, some GEFS members and CMC. this outcome would still bring strong NE winds, but shorter in duration and less wave energy reaching coastal areas. 3. The third and least likely outcome (would currently give this a 10% chance of occurring) is the front stalls offshore and never generates a low pressure system. Strong NE winds would still occur as the high builds in, but like scenario 2, winds would be shorter duration and wave energy would be on the lower end. Regardless of which scenario plays out, there is HIGH confidence of marine impacts, and potential for waves 7+ ft reaching portions of the OBX. Winds advisory potential exists for the OBX zones, as well as perhaps portions of the adjacent coastal mainland. Will have to watch for minor coastal flood concerns for srn portions of Pamlico Sound and the coastal areas of the OBX with the sustained NE flow. KEY MESSAGE 3...Coolest and driest airmass for the fall season thus far builds in behind the front Sat night and beyond with temps taking a nosedive with highsin the 60s and lows in the 40s (inland) and 50s (beaches). However, depending how offshore the front makes it, could keep things a bit milder than fcst if some clouds advect in from offshore keeping the nighttime mins a bit warmer than advertised. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR SKC continues with light swrly breezes. No guidance shows ANY fog development with all model suites showing winds remaining AoA 2-3kt through the overnight. Kept tempo MVFR for OAJ, which seems to be verifying well early this morning. There was a fire NW of the terminal in Duplin county as well as one NE of the terminal. Smoke plume was never dense enough to show on radar, and visible satellite showed the plume was thinning just before sunset. Did not include FU in the TAFs because of this, but lingering smoke could aid fog development/further dampen VIS should winds decouple. A dry backdoor front sags into the FA later today from N to S before briefly stalling somewhere between the Pamlico and Neuse Rivers overnight. No precip is expected, mostly just a wind shift and maybe some increased cloud coverage along and near the front. Chances for lowered CIG and VIS (with IFR/LIFR potential) increasing Thursday night, especially along and behind the stalled front. Outlook (Fri through Mon): Sub-VFR chances along and behind the meandering back door cold front early Friday. Pred VFR conditions return in the daytime Friday with swrly breezes inc ahead of cold front. Strong and slow moving cold front brings widespread light rain on Sat, with sub VFR likely behind the front later Sat with frontal inversion developing, along with gusty north winds through the day Sat. Clearing skies Sat night with winds tapering off as high pres attempts to build in for the latter half of the weekend into next week. && .MARINE... Latest obs show continuing SW winds 5-10 knots most locales with seas mainly 1-3 ft. High pressure will continue to the north allowing for predom swrly flow but no higher than 5-15 kt tonight with some gusts nearing 15 kt. Backdoor front oozes through the nrn waters and sound later today, though does not make it past Pamlico sound. To the north of the bndry, nerly breezes expected though remaining light, and to the south, generally swrly to srly continued light flow. Outlook (Fri through Mon): A strong cold front has trended slower, now not expected to clear the waters until Sat, at which point it is likely to form a low pressure system offshore. Strong nrly winds develop in it's wake on Sat, peaking later afternoon through Sat evening with gales appearing likely for all coastal waters and most of the sounds including Alligator river. There is potential for winds, gusts, and seas to be higher than forecast if a deepening low pressure system outcome occurs. Seas build quickly as well, with seas of 6-10+ ft appearing more likely through the weekend. Duration of gale force gusts is uncertain at this point, and there is potential for 6+ seas to linger well into next week. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for 10/15 (Thursday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 88/1935 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 84/1919 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 89/1985 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 86/1990 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 89/1985 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 90/1975 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 10/16 (Friday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 86/1975 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 83/1919 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1968 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 84/1917 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 86/2008 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 88/1975(NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RJ AVIATION...RJ MARINE...RJ  924 FXUS63 KTOP 150732 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 232 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dreary today with mostly cloudy skies and rain/drizzle - Much cooler and drier air moves in behind today's cold front for Friday and Saturday. Frost/freeze conditions appear likely Saturday morning. - Turning warmer Sunday into the middle of next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A closed mid-level low is advancing east across Colorado early this morning as another potent wave dives southeast across southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba into the Northern Plains. Energy lifting northeast ahead of the aforementioned low has generated another swath of rain and drizzle across the area. Limited instability has kept rainfall rates low, generally 0.25" per hour or less, and expect this to remain the case. Slightly higher rainfall rates and intermittent lightning have been observed across southeast Kansas. This will lift towards Anderson County over the next hour or two. Will hold onto the Flood Watch for now, but the overall potential for flooding is low and anticipate being able to cancel the Flood Watch early. Continued lift from the approaching mid-level low will lead to periodic rain and/or drizzle for much of the day today. The northern stream wave absorbs the closed low and pushes a cold front through the area by this evening. Gusty northwest winds behind the front usher in cooler and drier air for Friday and Saturday. CAA from breezy north winds and cloud cover will keep highs in the 50s on Friday! Model soundings show steep low-level lapse rates leading to weak instability; REFS and HREF mean for MUCAPE is ~25 J/kg. As a result, there is the potential for a couple of pop-up showers Friday afternoon and evening, which could mix down gustier winds aloft. The most likely area for this looks to be east into Missouri, so have kept a dry forecast for now. A strong Canadian high pressure slides overhead Friday night into Saturday morning. Light winds and clearing skies set the stage for the first frost/freeze of the season with lows forecast to be in the low to mid 30s. Areas north of Interstate 70 continue to have the highest likelihood of falling to or below freezing; NBM probabilities of reaching freezing are 40- 65% in this area. Will likely need headlines frost/freeze headlines, but uncertainty remains in exact areas of freeze vs frost. The surface high moves east through the day Saturday, allowing southerly low-level flow to return and a warming trend to ensue early next week. Highs will be near-normal by Sunday and back into the 70s Monday through the middle of next week. Guidance is consistent in a shortwave ejecting across the Plains on Monday, but dry low-levels favor this wave passing through dry. Better precipitation chances come Wednesday-Thursday of next week as flow becomes southwesterly ahead of a western US trough, although variability among guidance is high. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Messy TAF period expected with low cigs and -RA/DZ/BR reducing VSBY. Think LIFR/IFR conditions dominate the overnight hours as precipitation builds in. Chances for TS remain too low to include. Conditions may improve slightly in both VSBY and CIG by mid-morning, although coverage of rain and potential impact to VSBY is uncertain. Gradual improvement is expected during the afternoon and evening with winds becoming gusty from the northwest behind a cold front. Should see MVFR, potentially VFR, conditions by the end of this TAF period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ059. && $$ DISCUSSION...Flanagan AVIATION...Flanagan  905 FXUS64 KHUN 150731 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 231 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New NEAR TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 931 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Above normal temperatures are forecast Thursday with more Fall-like weather expected by the weekend. - Minor to Moderate (Level 2/4) heat impacts may be observed Thursday across portions of the Tennessee Valley. && .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High pressure will continue to drift east through the TN Valley both at the surface and aloft through the day today. On the western edge of high pressure, return flow will continue today allowing for another unseasonably warm day. The current NBM high temp forecast would again be recording breaking or tying at both HSV and MSL with todays high temp records being 88 and 91 respectively. Given that we have over preformed in this pattern the last two days, persistence forecast gives us a high chance of meeting these records again today. With the unseasonable heat, make sure to practice proper heat safety for at least once more hot fall day before relief makes its way in tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Saturday) Issued at 931 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The aforementioned cold front will shift southeastward into the area Friday ahead of an upper level trough swinging through the southeast U.S. While previous forecasts remain dry, CAMs have recently trended toward bringing low chances of rainfall along the frontal boundary Friday afternoon. A 10-20% chance of rain was added with this package update for portions of N AL and southern middle TN. No severe weather is anticipated due to lack of instability. Accompanying the front, a 50 kt LLJ will mix down and allow gusty winds up to 20-30 mph throughout the late afternoon into Saturday. Be sure to secure any loose, outdoor items (including holiday decorations) by Friday afternoon. Saturday, post-frontal conditions will remain breezy (as mentioned) but much cooler. Highs are forecast to remain in the 60s, which is 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year. An even colder night is in store for us Saturday night into Sunday- read more on this in the long term below. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 931 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 High pressure at the surface by Sat night should be situated over the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. This cold anticyclone bringing a N-NE flow across the greater Tennessee Valley will bring the coldest air of the season thus far. Night time lows by Sun morning should range from the upper 30s our southern Middle Tennessee counties to the low/mid 40s near large bodies of water. The models have been showing mainly 38 degrees over Lincoln and Moore counties. Under clear skies and light winds, we cannot rule out temperatures falling another couple of degrees or so, which would bring a frost risk. This is something we will monitor. The start of a new week should feature sunny skies with high temperatures a bit warmer than they were Sat, rising into the mid and upper 60s. Light winds in the morning should become E-SE in the afternoon. Not as cold Sun night with lows in the low/mid 40s. A slow warming trend is expected for the start of the new work week. Under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, highs Mon should rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s, with lows Mon night mid 40s to around 50. The moderation in temperatures continues into the midweek. Under partly cloudy skies, highs on Tue should get close to seasonable norms into the low/mid 70s, and into the mid 70s to around 80 Wed. Lows Tue night again should range from the mid 40s to around 50. Dry weather should continue into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period at both terminals. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RAD SHORT TERM....HC LONG TERM....RSB AVIATION...RAD  990 FXUS64 KJAN 150733 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 233 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated threat for fire danger conditions continue through the weekend. - A significant dry cold front will bring gusty northwest winds, worsened fire danger and wildfire concerns to the area tomorrow on Friday. - Very little, if any, rainfall is expected through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Through early mid next week (Wednesday)... Today: Morning surface and GOES East water vapor/RAP analysis indicate mean ridge around 592-594DM centered over the Gulf Coast states. Dry weather and seasonably warm temperatures (highs in 92-96F range and lows around 60 degrees in east MS to mid to upper 60s in central to northwest Delta) will persist. Additional record highs could tie or be eclipsed today. There remains efficient afternoon mixing/low humidity into critical levels (25 to 35 percent range) for continued Elevated fire danger which persist through the weekend. Heat indices will peak in the low to mid 90s today. The position of the ridge will continue a southeasterly fetch of return flow. High pressure will keep winds relatively light. Late week through early next week (Friday into Tuesday): Fall frontal passage remains likely Friday. An upper low currently over the Rockies will phase with deepening trough axis/upper jet diving into central Canada and southeast into the northern Plains to Mid MS Valley. This will help an amplified meridional and positively tilted trough. Stout, dry cold front will drive dewpoints falling into the mid to upper 30s (36-45F). Cannot rule out a rouge shower but overall majority areas will remain dry. Cool down remains likely this weekend. Highs will be seasonably warm Friday (72-78F in the Delta and 83-91F in southeast of the Delta), with lows in the low to mid 60s (61-66F) that morning and lows that night mid to upper 40s to low 50s north of Interstate 20 (45-50F) to mid to upper 50s (50- 53F) to the south. With continued drought stressed vegetation, this strong gusty front will likely increase fire danger concerns. The cold front will move into the Delta around daybreak Friday, Interstate 20 around midday and out of the area by early evening. 1030-1040mb surface high building will build east out of the lee side of the Rockies through the Mid West, leading to 6-8mb pressure gradient and resultant gusty gradient wind of 20-25mph sustained and wind gusts reaching 30-35mph at times. This will be a concern, so continue to monitor for any fire related headlines. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect across the region. The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight a Day 2 Elevated fire weather outlook for areas west of Interstate 55. There will efficient mixing but humidity may be slightly higher than today, so Elevated graphic still fits and will persist through the weekend. As the trough digs across the Eastern Seaboard and cuts off the Atlantic seaboard, ridge over the western Gulf will amplify, with the axis over the ArkLaTex. Seasonable and pleasant fall temperatures will build areawide into Saturday and Sunday (highs of 69-74F Saturday and 70- 78F Sunday and lows of 41-45F north of Interstate 20 to 46-50F to the south). Quiet and dry weather will persist next week, with an Omega block pattern developing (trough over the Baja California and southwest US and another just off the Carolina coast). Low level return flow and deep dry moisture profiles will lead to moderating temperatures (low 80s early week to mid to upper 80s by late week) and lows becoming more seasonable. With continued drought, stressed vegetation and afternoon humidity nearing critical levels by mid week (25 to 35 percent),fire danger will likely persist. Holding off introducing anything for next week. /DC/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 VFR conditions wl prevail through 10Z. After 10Z IFR/LIFR conditions wl be psbl in the south until 14Z. After 14Z VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the end of the TAF period. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 92 64 86 50 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 91 63 88 49 / 0 0 0 10 Vicksburg 92 63 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 92 61 91 51 / 0 0 10 0 Natchez 92 63 84 50 / 0 0 10 0 Greenville 93 64 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 94 63 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074. LA...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. AR...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ DC/22  122 FXUS63 KLMK 150735 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 335 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for most of the area with visibilities as low as 1/4 mile this morning. * Chance for severe weather has lessened somewhat, with the sole threat being strong to severe gusty winds. * Highs are warm across the south in the mid to upper 80s one last day before Friday. * Cool down and breezy winds arrive Friday, with a chance for frost in the Bluegrass overnight this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 335 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 =====Foggy, With Spotty Showers and Storms This Afternoon===== A game of cat and mouse is ongoing between departing clouds to the east, and approaching low to mid level clouds from the west. In areas that have seen a few hours of clearing, dense fog is forming. Timing and forecasting how thick the fog settles in is tricky because fog is hard to form with any cloud cover. Be that as it may. a Dense Fog Advisory will likely be issued very shortly to account for the observed dense fog in some areas that aren't in the typical valley locations, favored in areas from near Bowling Green towards Lexington and places NW from there, including the Louisville Metro. Though fog may not be quite as prevalent as a few nights ago, it will nonetheless cause concern for drivers in the morning. Beyond fog, winds are light as a cold front has nearly bisected our CWA. Nearly calm winds are present across the CWA, with generally southerly flow south of an east-to-west line from just north of Lake Cumberland to just north of BWG. Spotty showers are beginning to bubble up and move into our western CWA as well. Spotty showers can't be ruled out for the rest of the morning. This signifies the return to SW flow later this morning and afternoon as a warm front lifts through the Ohio Valley today. Warm minimum temperature records may be broken later this morning considering how saturated we are (I'd imagine the whole CWA only has the chance to cool by another degree or two). Eventually, as the warm front lifts through our area, it will slowly raise cloud ceilings, scour out fog, and generally push lower PoPs to our north. SW flow may be enhanced due to the close presence of a developing low moving towards the Great Lakes region. When the warm front associated with this low passes to the north, there may be enough instability for storms to fire as it passes sometime after 12 Noon EDT. For now, since moisture is so high, at least in the lower levels, clouds will be rather slow to clear for pure sunshine before storms fire. In between clouds though, enough instability could present strong to severe wind gusts. The best wind shear will avoid us to the NW, and as a result, the tornado threat will likely completely miss our area. Highs with this enhanced SW flow behind the front will be quick to warm though despite the morning cloud cover. There is still a question of how much cloud cover will stick around this afternoon but for now, high temperatures should be warmest in the south (south of I-64) in the mid to upper 80s. North of the interstate, clouds and rain will take the longest to clear with highs in the lower 80s to upper 70s. It should be said that despite the chance for severe weather, rainfall coverage will be scattered at best and move fairly progressively with the strong SW flow. Additional rainfall totals have a 75% of remaining under 0.5", with an extremely isolated risk of up to 2" of rain should a heavy downpour or two track over the same areas this afternoon. We are not expecting any flash flooding concerns today as the best severe risk and flooding risk remain too far north. =====Strong Incoming Cold Front and Seasonable WarmthNext Week===== SW flow will intensify as the impending cold behind the departing Great Lakes low gets closer and sweeps through early Friday morning. Winds will increase by early morning and grow stronger throughout the day. Temperatures will fall into the 60s for highs and cooling throughout the afternoon after frontal passage with wind gusts of 25- 35 MPH. Saturday, lows are chilly in the morning as temperatures really struggle to reach the upper 50s. There is increasing confidence in widespread frost Saturday night with clear skies and lows forecast in the mid to low 30s. We will likely issue products related to this when the time comes. Beyond Saturday, high temperatures very very slowly moderate as highs Sunday reach the mid 60s. Isolated frost may be possible, although the positioning of a high pressure may allow weak southerly flow to moderate us just enough to stay out of frost territory. Long range trend is dry, really through the rest of the week. Temperatures look to remain near normal eventually settling into the low 70s by midweek next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 147 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Fog and low lying stratus behind a cold front that has settled just north of BWG. VLIFR-low end MVFR north of the front will continue through the overnight with calm to very light southerly winds. Should fog never form in some areas, low-lying stratus will keep ceilings below MVFR. BWG may avoid the worst of the conditions, with SW flow remaining although the threat of low-lying stratus and MVFR is still possible. By late morning on Thursday, the front will lift north, switching winds out of the SW across all terminals, clearing fog, and gradually lifting ceilings from south to north. PROB30s were included for showers across terminals, with maybe a storm in the afternoon at HNB. VFR rules should return tomorrow afternoon. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for KYZ023>043-045>049-053-054-061>065-070>074-076. IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$ DISCUSSION...BKF AVIATION...BKF  410 FXUS65 KREV 150741 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1241 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warmer conditions for the remainder of the week into this weekend. * Increased east to southeast breezes Thursday into Friday with stronger ridge top winds peaking Thursday night. * Cooler temperatures return next week with increased winds followed by chances for rain and mountain snow showers. && .DISCUSSION... A high-pressure ridge off the California coast building into the northern Great Basin and a developing low off Southern California will bring easterly breezes on Thursday (gusts 15-25 mph generally, 40-50 mph on ridge tops, and up to 60 mph overnight). Lake Tahoe's western shores may see choppy waters Thursday night. As a result, a Lake Wind Advisory is in place for Lake Tahoe from 7 PM thursday through 2 AM on Friday. By Friday, winds shift to the southeast with afternoon gusts of 15- 25 mph, with localized areas up to 30 mph. Lower humidity (12-20%) will elevate fire weather concerns in these areas. See the Fire Weather Discussion for more details. Winds diminish Saturday, returning to typical southwest/west breezes Sunday. Temperatures will rise into the mid-to-upper 70s for lower elevations and near 70 degrees in the Sierra. An approaching upper-level trough breaks down the ridge early next week. Monday brings increasing winds with 30-40 mph gusts and renewed fire weather concerns. Cooler temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s follow Tuesday through Thursday. Showers are expected Tuesday night through Thursday (30- 50% chance south of US-50, 15-30% elsewhere), with light rain in valleys and snow above 8000-8500 feet in Mono County. HRICH && .AVIATION... * VFR conditions prevail this weekend under clear skies. East/southeast gusts up to 15-20 kts this afternoon through Friday. Stronger ridge east winds (40-50 kts) today through early Friday may trigger mountain wave turbulence and LLWS west of the Sierra and Carson Ranges. HRICH && .FIRE WEATHER... * Elevated fire weather conditions are noted for Friday over northern Washoe, portions of southern Washoe and Lassen counties and portions of Mineral County due to gusty winds up to 35 mph and low relative humidity ranging 10-15%. HRICH && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 AM PDT Friday NVZ002. CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 AM PDT Friday CAZ072. && $$  640 FXUS61 KCLE 150745 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 345 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The low pressure has trended weaker over the past couple of forecast runs leading wind gusts tending lower for Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) There will be a chance for thunderstorms as a warm front lifts north across the region tonight. A few storms could produce strong gusts upwards of 50 MPH. 2) A cold front will sweep through the region early Friday as low pressure moves through the Great Lakes bringing the chance for rain and gusty winds. 3) Coldest air of the season is expected Friday night and Saturday night with frost/freeze conditions expected on Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Low pressure will begin to develop in the Mid-Mississippi Valley midday today and deepen to the northeast into the Great Lakes by late this evening. Ahead of this low, a warm front will lift north across the region late tonight into the early overnight hours. The majority of the region should remain dry through much of the day as showers and thunderstorms will enter Northwestern Ohio by 6-8PM this evening and move eastward. The chances of thunderstorms will decrease further east as we move into the late overnight hours and instability will wane. On the note of instability, temperatures through out the day will warm into the low 70s with dewpoints climbing into the low 60s by late this evening. This will lead to marginal instability, in the for of a few hundred J/kg along and behind the warm front. Additionally, a strong low level jet of 40-50 knots out of the southwest will accompany the warm front as it moves north. 0-6km Bulk shear of around 50 knots is also expected with the low level jet. With this, there is potential for a few stronger thunderstorms to produce wind gusts of 50 MPH or greater. Though poor lapse rates across the region will limit how much of the low level winds mix down and limiting the overall severe weather threat. Currently, SPC has much of North-Central Ohio within a Marginal Risk for this time period. Severe weather threat should dissipate later into the overnight as precipitation chances decrease as well with the departing warm front. KEY MESSAGE 2... The associated cold front from the low pressure system will sweep through the region west to east Friday morning into the afternoon. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected with the front as it moves through with widespread accumulation expected. Currently expecting around 0.25-.50" of accumulation with higher amounts possible within thunderstorms. The low level jet and low pressure itself has trended weaker over the past couple of model runs. This is leading to wind gusts and winds overall being lower, even with the strong CAA behind the front. Winds are still expected to be 15- 20 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH possible. The strongest timeframe for winds will be after midnight Friday through early Saturday morning when the winds shift to be out of the north with a secondary trough moving through. The strongest winds are expected to be along the lakeshore, generally from the Islands east through Lake County with gusts around 35-40 MPH. Winds will begin to subside Saturday morning as high pressure begins to build in from the west. With the secondary trough moving through and winds shifting to be out of the north, lake effect showers are possible across Northeastern Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania. An additional couple tenth of rain is possible with these linger showers, primarily around Cleveland and south through Akron due to the connection from Lake Huron with the northerly winds. The lake effect showers should linger into Saturday afternoon and begin to dissipate as drier air moves in with the upper level ridge. Dry weather is expected through the remainder of the weekend into early next week. KEY MESSAGE 3... Behind the cold front, much colder air will be advected into the region with the northwest the north flow Saturday into early Sunday. Temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning will drop down into the mid to upper 30s with areas near the lakeshore staying in the 40s. Temperatures have trended a few degrees warmer for the region, so there is less confidence in needing frost headlines for Saturday morning. Northwestern Pennsylvania will be the coldest location in the CWA with temperatures in the mid 30s, but winds being 10-15 MPH throughout the night may inhibit frost formation. Saturday night into Sunday morning will have more widespread temperatures at 36 degrees or lower. High pressure will have built in across much of the region at this point with only some lingering cloud cover and winds becoming light at less than 5 MPH allowing for decent radiational cooling. Trends still have the areas east of the I-71 corridor away from the lakeshore with an over 50% chance of seeing temperatures below freezing. Frost conditions are likely elsewhere with lower probability near the lakeshore given the lake is still relatively warm. Temperatures will begin to moderate to more seasonal highs and lows starting Sunday as the high pressure builds to the east and southwesterly flow moves into the region. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... A warm front is expected to lift across the area this evening. Ahead of this front, MVFR ceilings are widespread early this morning and will generally continue through midday. Ceilings will try to lift/scatter out for a time this afternoon, and do bring some sites up to a brief window of VFR. Ceilings will likely lower back to MVFR across the board this evening along and ahead of the incoming warm front. The warm front may be accompanied by some mainly light rain showers. The greater potential for showers and even some embedded thunderstorms that can bring visibility restrictions appears to be late this evening into the overnight. The warm front will lift out of the area, with a brief window of warmer and more unstable conditions ahead of a quickly approaching cold front that will cross early Friday. Guidance is quite pessimistic with widespread low ceilings (IFR or LIFR at most TAF sites) Thursday night into Friday morning, though the current TAFs lean a bit less pessimistic for now as it can be difficult to see such low ceilings in a robust warm sector this time of year. Northeast winds early this morning will gradually shift more east-southeast through the day today, and then more south- southwest behind the warm front this evening into tonight. Speeds will generally remain 10 knots or less through today before increasing to 10-15kt with some 25kt gusts behind the warm front tonight. Outlook...Occasional non-VFR expected to continue in periods of rain showers and lower ceilings through Friday night. Winds may gust over 30kt at times Friday afternoon through early Saturday. && .MARINE... Winds and waves from the Islands through Willowick, OH will continue to decrease over the next few hours so the Small Craft Advisory has been canceled early. Winds throughout today will be out of the east at 10-15 knots, then shifting to the south-southeast and increasing to 20-25 knots as a warm front lifts north across the lake late this evening. A low pressure system will move north of the lake tonight into Friday sweeping a cold front though early Friday morning. Winds will shift around to be out of the northwest at 20-25 knots Friday morning through the afternoon. Waves will build to 6-9 feet across the lake as a result. A secondary trough will move across the lake Friday evening andwinds will shift to be out of the north at around 25-30 knots and waves will build to 7-11 feet. The probability of gales across the central basin as decrease due to the low pressure system trending weaker than previously. Though, wind gusts exceeding 34 knot gales are still possible and Small Craft Advisories will be needed for Friday and Saturday. Elevated winds will persist through Saturday morning when they diminish to around 15-20 knots by midday. Winds will continue to diminish into Saturday evening to around 5-15 knots and shift to be out of the northwest with waves diminishing as well with high pressure builds into the region. Winds will increase out of the southwest early Sunday morning to 10-15 knots and persist through Monday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...23 AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...23  694 FXUS62 KGSP 150745 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 345 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Precip chances were introduced east of the mountains in NC for Saturday. The frost potential for the mountains Saturday night and Sunday night looks slightly better than previously thought. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Near record high temperatures linger through Friday before a strong cold front crosses the region Friday afternoon/evening. Gusty winds are expected across the higher elevations along and behind the front, but confidence in Advisory level wind gusts is low. 2. Behind the cold front, temperatures will drop below normal through the weekend. Low temperatures across the mountains will be cold enough for frost and could drop below freezing in some places early Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Near record high temperatures linger through Friday before a strong cold front crosses the region Friday afternoon/evening. Gusty winds are expected across the higher elevations along and behind the front, but confidence in Advisory level wind gusts is low. An upper level anticyclone will move across the region overnight and off the Carolina Coast by the end of the day. Meanwhile, a mid/upper trof will continue to amplify over the nrn Plains/upper Midwest as a strong short wave diving out of the Canadian Plains incorporates some of the upper energy lifting out from the Rockies. This will support one more seasonally hot day across the region with fcst high temps getting back up into record territory. Changes will be in progress by the time Friday gets here with the upper anticyclone well offshore and the upper trof digging sharply across the Midwest/lower OH Valley region. The amplifying pattern will drive a cold front toward the fcst area, but it probably won't get here before temps have a chance to climb well into the 80s once more. This might not be warm enough to reach records, especially over the mtns, but it will still be well above normal. The cold front is expected to cross the region late Friday into early Saturday morning, with fairly strong winds at 850 mb. At this time, any wind gusts that would approach Advisory criteria look to be confined to the peaks above 5K feet. An Advisory is not anticipated at this time. Moisture return will be relatively poor as the Gulf is mostly closed off, but that won't stop upslope shower activity behind the front as the low level flow comes around to NW. A few snowflakes are possible at the summit of Mt Mitchell early Saturday. The latest NBM seems to slow down the front a bit and shows low level moisture lingering through the middle part of the day, which results in a small precip prob over the western Piedmont Saturday morning. Strong cold advection aloft should also play a role by making lapse rates steeper and allowing for some weak shallow buoyancy, so isolated showers will be possible. Think precip amounts will be minimal. Key message 2: Behind the cold front, temperatures will drop below normal through the weekend. Low temperatures across the mountains will be cold enough for frost and could drop below freezing in some places early Sunday morning. The strong cold front is expected to bring in the first true autumn continental air mass as high pressure builds in Saturday and then lingers through Monday, with temperatures forecast to be at least 10 degrees below normal. You're going to notice it...as temperatures Saturday afternoon are expected to be 20 to 25 degrees cooler than Friday. The slight delay in frontal passage all but negates the potential for an advective freeze across portions of the mountains Saturday morning. The chances for widespread frosty/localized freezing temperatures are much greater Saturday night and again Sunday night as the center of the surface high pressure and associated ridge settle over the mountains and provide for good radiational cooling. The situation looks favorable for widespread frost across the mtns, while the northern mountains have a good chance of getting down to freezing. Climatologically, this is only about a week late. Meanwhile, east of the mtns, don't be too suprised if patches of frost develop over the nrn foothills and northwest Piedmont. We often underforecast the frost potential in the first cool autumn air mass. There will be some frost potential again Sunday night. As heights begin to rise and the surface ridge gradually weakens over the Eastern Seaboard, temperatures begin to moderate, but remain below normal Monday/Mon night, further warming to right around climo by the middle of next week. Conditions will remain dry/precip free as the air mass remains seasonably dry. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Mountain valley fog this morning may bring restrictions to KAVL. Patchy fog elsewhere will bring restrictions to KAND and possibly KHKY. Expect some high based stratocu this afternoon. Mountain valley fog returns tonight. Light and variable wind this morning becomes light S to SW for the afternoon into the evening. Outlook: Mainly dry, generally VFR conditions are expected to continue thru early next week, outside of the potential for mtn valley fog and low stratus Friday morning. A robust cold front could bring sct showers and associated restrictions to the mtns Friday aftn and the entire area Friday night and Saturday. Gusty winds are expected ahead of the front on Friday and behind the front Friday night/Saturday. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS FOR 10-15 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 86 1897 52 2002 60 2017 27 1907 1970 1928 KCLT 88 1985 53 2009 66 1985 30 2006 KGSP 86 1985 53 2002 65 1985 31 1907 1941 1970 RECORDS FOR 10-16 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 1897 49 1954 63 1928 29 1939 KCLT 87 1925 58 1937 68 1947 35 1939 1925 KGSP 85 1935 53 1937 67 1925 32 1907 1911 1892 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ PM/RWH  678 FXUS63 KSGF 150745 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 245 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch is in effect through 4 PM as additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms move through the area. A localized risk for heavy rainfall and isolated strong to severe storms will accompany this system. - Cooler temperatures this weekend with highs in the 50s to 60s. Expect gusty northerly winds up to 30-35 mph beginning Thursday evening and lasting through Friday evening. - Increasing confidence in patchy frost, and perhaps a freeze, Saturday and Sunday mornings as lows dip into the 30s. The highest confidence is on Sunday morning across portions of the eastern Ozarks. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The main feature of note in the region is a rapidly decaying thunderstorms complex over northeast Oklahoma as evidenced by warming cloud tops, the main line separating from the trailing stratiform region, and an overall sloppier presentation of the leading edge. Despite RAP analysis depicting ~1000 J.kg MUCAPE with 40-50 kts of deep-layer shear ahead of the complex, it appears to be straying too far from large-scale ascent associated with the mid-and upper-level low lagging behind over Colorado and the Rocky Mountain front range. The HRRR has really struggled to initialize this complex each run. The 03Z RRFS, on the other hand, handled its presentation and evolution well. It has the complex completely dissipating by the time it reaches southwest Missouri. Given current radar trends, this seems the most likely scenario. Otherwise, the mesolow associated with the complex has initiated low-level warm air advection across the Ozarks, leading to a northward advancement of a previously stationary boundary. This is leading to scattered light showers across the area, which are expected to lift north with the front through the early morning. Flood Watch in effect through 4 PM: Another complex of storms is currently over the Red River Valley as another shortwave impulse interacts with the frontal boundary over the area. This complex is expected to follow the same progression as the first, bringing mostly remnant showers and thunderstorms to our area late this morning. The Flood Watch remains in effect northwest of I-44 until 4 PM this afternoon to account for these repeated rounds of showers and storms. However, with a trend more towards remnant stratiform, any flooding should remain quite localized, sticking to previously saturated areas that see some of the heavier rain today. If trends continue to depict lighter rainfall, the Flood Watch may be canceled early. That said, much of the area should see at least some light rain today (70-99% chance). The only areas that may remain dry is confined to Oregon and surrounding counties (50-80% chance to remain dry). Low (<5% chance) for a stray strong to severe storm today: With either of the two complexes this morning, there is still a low-end chance for a stray strong to severe thunderstorm, though chances seem quite low given current trends and very meager low- and mid-level lapse rates. Despite no official SPC Outlook for us this afternoon, there is still a low (<5% chance) for a stray strong to severe thunderstorm, especially if the thunderstorm complexes and associated stratiform rain/clouds sufficiently break apart this morning. The 00Z runs of the HREF/REFS ensemble and RAP deterministic do suggest lingering instability of around 1000 J/kg beneath 30-40 kts of deep-layer shear. The main hindrance is synoptic support remaining to our northeast in the Ohio River Valley, and to the southwest in the Red River Valley. Additionally, forecast soundings show a slight capping inversion at around 800 mb,which may limit over development and strength of potential afternoon storms. That said, continue to expect scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon (20-50% chance). Any stronger storm that can develop would be capable of damaging wind gusts up to 50-60 mph. Strong cold front moves through this evening: The main cold front is forecast to quickly move through from west to east between 5 PM and midnight this evening. With the passage, winds will sharply shift to northwesterly, increasing to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25-30 mph. Additionally, due to the remnant meager instability ahead of the front (but slight capping aloft), a thin line of gusty low-topped showers may be associated with the frontal passage (50-80% chance). These could bring gusts briefly up to 30-40 mph. The cold front will usher in much cooler air, with lows tonight in the 40s, and highs in the lower to middle 50s Friday. Given remnant clouds and strong cold air advection from gusty winds up to 30-35 mph, some areas may even struggle to reach 50 F on Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Patchy frost, and perhaps a freeze, possible this weekend: As the cold front dives through the Gulf, a rather abnormal high pressure system (~99.5th percentile for this time of year) will move through our region over the course of the weekend. This will keep highs cooler (well actually quite seasonable) in the 60s Saturday and Sunday. With calmer winds and clear skies beneath the high, though, lows will be colder, dropping into the 30s. This will bring a frost potential both Saturday and Sunday mornings, but especially Sunday morning when winds are forecast to be calmest, and where the eastern Ozarks are forecast to range from 30-34 F. Current Frost probabilities (using <35 F as a proxy) are 15-40% along and north of I-44, and in the eastern Ozarks, on Saturday morning. Then, a 50-95% chance east of Highway 5 on Sunday morning. Current Freeze probabilities (<32 F) are only pockets of 5-10% Saturday morning (mainly in valleys). Then, a 20-50% chance in the eastern Ozarks Sunday morning. For some context, the average first frost date for the eastern Ozarks ranges from Oct. 10-15, while the average first freeze data ranges from Oct. 17-22. So while we have had quite warm temperatures September and the first half of October, the first frost/freeze is actually coming around right on time in terms of climatology. Temperatures quickly rebound to above normal into next week: Those fall-like temperatures will not last long, though, as global ensembles are in pretty good agreement of a ridge amplifying over the region in response to a deep low digging into the western CONUS. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the 70s on Monday, reaching around 80 F by Wednesday. CPC agrees with the current forecast, giving us a 70-80% chance of above normal temperatures from October 20-24. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Current observations show variably low stratus across southwest Missouri, bringing fluctuating MVFR to IFR cigs. At BBG, this stratus has built down to 2-3 SM fog, which may have potential to drop visibilities into LIFR territory until around 10Z. Radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorms lifting northeast through Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how this line evolves as it moves through the TAF sites, but there is highest certainty in thunderstorms impacting at least JLN (80-90% chance). As storms move through, visibilities would briefly drop to 1-2SM, with winds briefly gusty out of the southwest before returning to the background southeasterly flow at 8-12 kts. After the line of thunderstorms departs and/or breaks apart, remnant showers and thunderstorms are possible throughout the TAF period until the arrival of a strong cold front between 22-03Z. This cold front will bring a sharp wind shift to northwesterly, increasing speeds to 13-18 kts with gusts up to 23-28 kts. Cigs also have a 70-90% chance to at least briefly decline to IFR, hanging around for the rest of the TAF period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Flood Watch through this afternoon for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch through this afternoon for MOZ055>057-066>069- 077>080-088-089. && $$ SHORT TERM...Price LONG TERM...Price AVIATION...Price