323 FXUS64 KOUN 241101 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 601 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 525 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Excessive heat continues early this week, with "less hot" conditions towards the midweek. - Strong to severe storms are possible early this morning across north-central Oklahoma and along the I-40 corridor Monday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts are the main hazard. - Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across portions of western, central and southern Oklahoma and western-north Texas on Monday afternoon into early evening. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 A corridor of scattered rain and storm activity is beginning to rapidly take shape across portions of north-central and central Oklahoma early this morning, coincident with a strengthening/translating low-level jet and warm advection regime. A few storms here may pose a risk for strong-damaging wind gusts and hail over the coming hours before activity begins to shift eastward into Green Country and the western Ozarks towards daybreak. A surface low and attendant cold front will move slowly southeastward across northern portions of the forecast area during the first half of Monday. Airmass modification associated with the early morning round of showers and storms (i.e., outflows, remnant clouds, etc.) will likely have a strong control on sensible conditions by the afternoon, especially the further east you go in Oklahoma. Hottest conditions on Monday are expected just south of the front in areas least affected by aforementioned factors. For now, this looks to be the area south of I-40 and along/west of I-35. Here, high temperatures climbing to near 112-115F is not off the table (~20-30% chance of occurrence). A daily high temperature of 115F has only been achieved three times (since 1923) at Wichita Falls and once (since 1912) at Lawton. Elsewhere, despite potential for a more sluggish start to warming, hot and humid conditions are expected by the late afternoon (ambient highs 95-100F; heat indices as high as 105F). A Heat Advisory and Extreme Heat Warning continue from 12 PM to 8 PM Monday, and have been expanded east-north to account for an increasing warm signal in latest guidance. Similar to temperatures, the nature of an afternoon into evening storm risk across the area will be heavily influenced by what occurs from sunrise through lunchtime. For now, we will continue to carry very low (~20%) mention of isolated thunderstorm activity near the expected frontal zone (i.e., generally along the I-40 corridor and southward) from the late afternoon into mid-evening. Given a very hot and well-mixed boundary layer, with strong downdraft potential energy, damaging winds will be the primary hazard should a few stronger thunderstorm cores emerge during this time. While the persistent hot and dry weather and worsening/expanding drought is leading to many days of elevated fire weather conditions across Oklahoma and western-north Texas, the addition of a front may offer a locally focused corridor of more concerning potential later this afternoon and evening. Along with pre-frontal "torching", a local minima in afternoon humidity (as low as ~13-15%) and maxima in southwesterly wind gusts (~20-25 mph) may offer brief periods of near-critical fire weather conditions. While a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement seems most appropriate for now - given uncertainties discussed above - a targeted Red Flag Warning may become warranted if this higher threat corridor emerges in the nowcast space. As the front begins to ooze southward closer to sunset, a west-to- north wind shift will also need to be closely monitored should any fires become established across the landscape across central Oklahoma. Ungar && .SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 The cold front introduced on Monday will likely continue to impact sensible weather across the region into the midweek. A notable north- to-south temperature gradient is likely across the forecast area on Tuesday, with "coolest" (upper-90s) highs across northern Oklahoma. If the frontal zone can remain mostly intact (i.e., not get "washed out"), then another corridor of very hot weather (high temperatures and heat indices >105F) is likely across southern Oklahoma into western-north Texas. An active period of thunderstorm activity is forecast on Tuesday evening across the Southern High Plains, with a semi-organized thunderstorm complex likely taking shape during the evening here. As activity moves eastward, the potential for at least sporadic strong-severe wind gusts appears possible across western Oklahoma into early Wednesday morning. Things continue to take a cooler turn into Wednesday for most areas north of the Red River, as a weak surface high slides southward across the combined panhandles. Upper-90s to low-100s highs are expected, with potential for >105F afternoon heat indices continuing along and south of the Red River. The storm potential on Wednesday near the front is a bit murky/low, though some short-term guidance does advertise chances across southern Oklahoma into western-north Texas, as another embedded perturbation rounds the periphery of the upper ridge. Ungar && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 It still appears as though the high-amplitude/strong upper high will subtly retrograde into the middle of the week, putting a check on temperatures and keeping the door open for at least low precipitation chances. Thursday looks to be another "cooler" (yet still above average) day on the temperature front, with upper-90s to near-100F highs across Oklahoma and western-north Texas. The current forecast would advertise the lowest/least areal coverage of heat headlines this day, though will be dependent on how surface features (namely a front) evolves on Wednesday. It does currently appear that we begin to warm more notably into next weekend, as advection of warmer airmasses re-establishes. While no period stands out amongst the rest in terms of rain and storm chances, our position relative to the aforementioned high will allow for at least episodic (low) chances from Thursday evening into the weekend (especially across northern and western Oklahoma). Ungar && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 The morning rain has moved east of the TAF sites this morning. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions through the day and overnight. A surface low will traverse east across the area today as associated front remains near the I-40 corridor. There is a chance for a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms along and south of this boundary and have introduced this possibility at CSM/LAW where the highest probabilities exist. Southwest to west winds are expected to the south of the front with north to northeast winds to the north. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 107 75 100 73 / 20 20 10 10 Hobart OK 111 75 104 73 / 20 20 10 30 Wichita Falls TX 111 81 106 76 / 10 20 10 10 Gage OK 100 70 97 66 / 0 10 10 60 Ponca City OK 96 72 98 71 / 10 0 10 20 Durant OK 107 79 106 77 / 20 20 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ016>019-021-022-026-030>032-042-043-048. Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ023>025-027>029-033>041-044>047-050>052. TX...Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...09 SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...25/30  386 FXUS63 KMKX 241102 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 602 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Comfortable & pleasant afternoon weather conditions today through Tuesday and Thursday-Friday. - There is a chance for showers & thunderstorms Tuesday night through Wednesday and next weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued 601 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 There is patchy ground fog and river valley fog in a few locations across southern WI early this morning. We can expect diurnal cumulus clouds to develop once again today, and also some high clouds will start streaming in from the west. Winds will be lighter than yesterday due to high pressure overhead, but still out of the north- northwest, with the exception of the lake breeze. Look for high temperatures to be in the upper 70s which is around normal for late August. Cronce && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Tonight through Monday Night: With high pressure overhead, skies are clear and winds are light. Temperatures in the low 50s to low 60s across southern Wisconsin will continue to fall throughout the night with overnight lows expected to fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Generally warmer temperatures will be along Lake Michigan. A nice crisp night and a taste of fall for those of us that are looking for it. As temperatures fall there is a potential for fog to develop tonight but there in some uncertainty in how much fog will develop. Available moisture will be the one competing factor for whether or not fog develops. If moisture is lacking then dew is more likely to form than fog. Still a bit to early to tell, but should be something that shows itself in the next couple of hours or so as the dew point depression drops to 1-2 degrees at multiple sites. Any fog that develops is expected to burn off/mix out shortly after sunrise. High pressure will slowly begin to shift east of the state, Monday. Fair weather cumulus clouds are likely to develop again this afternoon. Likewise under the light winds, a lake breeze is should develop and a few miles inland. Quiet conditions are expected through Monday night. As winds become southwesterly behind the departing high, WAA should slowly return ahead of the next incoming system for Tuesday. Patterson && .LONG TERM... Issued 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Tuesday through Sunday: Heading into Tuesday, high pressure will be moving east into the Mid Atlantic and New England states as a low pressure system travels across southern Canada into the northern Great Lakes Region. The upper level trough is expected to follow the exact same track as this system becomes stacked. The surface low is expected to occluded as it moves east before reaching the Great Lakes Region. For southern Wisconsin, the best chance for precipitation is expected to be with some WAA behind the warm front and with the passage of a cold front. There is some uncertainty on how much if any rain/storms we get with the push of WAA and any we do get will just eat away at any instability we would have gained in the afternoon/evening. The main concern here is the lack of any low level forcing. As temps and moisture increases diurnally there will be instability, but nothing to force convection. Which reflects why there are only a few model runs with any after convection so low chance but non zero. Especially if one shower goes, its outflow could trigger many more. Now with the passage of the cold front there is expected to be better upper level lit from the trough, but the timing of this looks to occur during the overnight hours into Wednesday late morning. This separates the best instability with the best lift and forcing. So while rain and storms are expected due to this confidence on any strong to severe storms are low. Its a low but non zero chance situation. Shear looks to be the one category that is persistent from the WAA to the passage of the cold front in support of stronger storms. It will just come down to timing and when our best forcing and instability resides. The low pressure system and front are expected to clear southern Wisconsin by Wednesday afternoon. High pressure is then expected to return to southern Wisconsin from Manitoba on Thursday and Friday. This area of high pressure will be exciting to the east Friday night as another low pressure system approaches from the Plains. This will bring rain chances back for the weekend. An upper level trough is expected to move through Canada with a few short wave troughs moving through the larger flow across the Great Lakes Region. These storms chances seem to largely be driven by the shortwave aloft and the LLJ. Which when aligned can lead to rain and storms, but there are some meso scale features that can throw that off or take a day of storm potential and turn it into mostly with little lightning. A lot of it will come down to where the best shear and instability reside which global models seem to be washing out and spreading out over a generous portion of the state. This is then reflected in the low chances around 10-30%. More details will shake out as we get closer to the weekend. Patterson && .AVIATION... Issued 601 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 There is patchy ground fog and river valley fog in a few locations across southern WI early this morning. We can expect diurnal cumulus clouds with bases around 6000 ft to develop once again today, and also some high clouds will start streaming in from the west. Winds will be lighter than yesterday due to high pressure overhead, but still out of the north- northwest, with the exception of the lake breeze. Cronce && .MARINE... Issued 601 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Low pressure in eastern Ontario will linger through this evening, resulting in breezy northwest winds across the northern third of Lake Michigan. High pressure will drift across Wisconsin and Lake Michigan through Tuesday afternoon and winds will diminish and become light and variable. Look for south to southwest winds to develop over the lake Tuesday afternoon as the high shifts into Ontario and low pressure approaches from the northern Great Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. The low will cross Lake Michigan Wednesday afternoon, bringing a breezy northwest wind shift, but gales are not expected as this occurs. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the approaching/passing surface low Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon, but they are not expected to be severe. The next area of high pressure will gradually build toward Lake Michigan from the northern Great Plains Wednesday night through Friday. Cronce && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  529 FXUS61 KBTV 241105 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 705 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 243 AM EDT Monday... No significant changes to the current forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 243 AM EDT Monday... 1. Lingering showers will continue today and Tuesday under broad cyclonic flow, with drier weather returning towards the middle of the week. 2. Showery end to the week before trending drier over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 243 AM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Slow moving surface and upper level low pressure systems remain over the region, keeping broad cyclonic flow in place. This will lead to continued scattered showers, especially across the higher terrain as the upper level low gradually shifts away from the region. This cyclonic flow will also lead to some lake effect showers off Lake Ontario, with increased shower chances expected across northern New York today and into Tuesday. Temperatures will be on the cool side, with highs only climbing into the 70s, with some locations in the Adirondacks struggling to climb out of the upper 60s. A brief period of ridging will build into the region for Wednesday, bringing some drier weather conditions for the middle of the week. KEY MESSAGE 2: An upper-level trough builds in on Thursday and Friday, bringing some showers and thunderstorms. A northern- stream surface low should track northeast out of the Great Lakes Region and into Quebec during this time, though its center will pass well too far to the north to have any direct impacts. However, as is typical for incoming upper level lows, a series of surface fronts/troughs should move through Thursday and Thursday night, bringing multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Model guidance has continued to keep any possible secondary low development and most of the tropical moisture out to sea, preventing the heaviest rain from reaching the region. While a couple strong to severe storms could be possible on Thursday, the synoptic setup and ingredients favor another marginal low CAPE/high shear setup, though the exact details will be refined before then. During that period, GEFS/EPS/CMCE combined probabilities of more than a half inch of rain are down below 20 percent, though the convective nature will lead to some locally higher totals. Broad upper level troughing and associated cyclonic flow should remain over the weekend, keeping temperatures on the cooler side, but conditions should remain mostly dry. Highs should be in the 70s with low humidity, while lows should be in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 12Z Tuesday...A mix of flight categories currently exist due to patch fog. The fog will lift by mid-morning and VFR conditions will mostly prevail through the evening. However, isolated showers will pass through during the day and evening, and they could briefly cause MVFR visibility to develop at any given terminal. The highest probability of receiving a shower remains over northern New York, though they cannot be completely ruled out from reaching a Vermont terminal. Some low clouds are likely to return to SLK and MPV tonight, and while stronger flow and more cloud cover should make fog formation more difficult, it is still possible there. Winds will generally be southerly and between 5-10 KT, transitioning to a mix of southerly and terrain driven tonight. Outlook... Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Neiles DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Neiles AVIATION...Myskowski  517 FXUS62 KMFL 241104 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 704 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 635 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Smoke from wildfires in the area could produce lower visibilities and unhealthy air quality over portions of the Everglades and western suburbs. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop in the afternoon and evening again today. An isolated marginally severe storm or two is possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 123 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 The deep trough draped across most of the eastern US and associated low pressure center over the Great Lakes will start to lift more northeast early this week. Additionally, another Saharan Air Layer (SAL) looks to advect into the area today. The thickness of this SAL is expected to be much less than the previous one, but it is still expected to create a drier local atmosphere that produces less widespread rain today. Light flow across the region will create a setup where most of the rain showers and thunderstorms that do form will be observed over interior areas of South Florida where the sea breezes collide. However, some activity can drift towards the coasts as additional convection develops along outflow boundaries. An isolated severe thunderstorm or two once again cannot be ruled out in the form of downburst winds because the SAL helps to steepen low level lapse rates. Strongest storms are are most likely to occur again with a storm formed by converging boundaries or cell mergers. Primary impacts to monitor for will be periods of heavy rain that could lead to localized flooding, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and strong wind gusts. The SAL will start to filter out on Tuesday, allowing for the deep moisture environment (PWATs ~1.7-2.0") to be utilized for widespread convection during the peak heating time of day in the afternoon and evening. High end PoPs rise to 50-70% over the interior on Tuesday which is up from 30-40% today. PoPs near the coasts will also be about 20% higher tomorrow when compared to today. Even with the increased rain chances Tuesday, QPF is still not too impressive at generally 0.5-1.0" across the region. Guidance also indicates potential for a mid-level low to form off the coast of Cuba and advect northwards late Tuesday into Tuesday night that could provide some extra upper level support for convection if the feature forms as modeled. However, uncertainty is high with this as it's not clearly defined across many of the ensemble members suite. High temperatures early this week will continue to be in the low to mid 90s. Maximum heat index values will primarily be in the 100-105F range, but some areas will experience brief periods where indices could reach into the 105-110F range. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 123 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 For the middle to end of this week and into next weekend, surface and low level high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will begin to expand back over the region and cause winds to shift back to an easterly or east-southeast direction. This easterly to east- southeast regime will produce a pattern that is common in the summertime across South Florida with convection being driven by the sea breeze circulations and being steered towards the Gulf coast areas. At the same time, the weak SAL will dissipate by mid-week and allow for the deeper moisture to be utilized for widespread shower and thunderstorm development. At the same time, we will be monitoring for some weak disturbances and vorticity maxima forming off the Caribbean islands as much of the guidance is showing potential for these weak lows to form, mainly in the mid-levels and advect close to the region. Nevertheless, abundant moisture (PWATs 1.8-2.0+") will be present for Wed-Fri and into the weekend for any vorticity and diurnal heating instability to take advantage of. Highest rain chances (60-80%) each day will be across interior and Southwest Florida as the easterly to east- southeast wind regime favors these areas receiving the most widespread rain. High temperatures are projected to remain in the low to mid 90s each day. Overnight lows range from the low 70s across the interior and lake regions to the upper 70s and low 80s along the coastal metros. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Winds remain light and variable across all terminals early this morning before increasing out of the SE after 16z to around 10 kts across the east coast terminals. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the SW after 16z as a Gulf breeze pushes inland. Scattered SHRA/TSRA expected to develop mostly inland and away from terminals, but VCTS in place after 16Z with monitoring for short- fused AMDs. && .MARINE... Issued at 123 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Light to gentle west-southwest winds are expected across the Gulf waters early this week with southeasterly winds across the Atlantic. Seas will remain at 1-2 feet or less each day across all of the local waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late each day and in the late night hours over the waters, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 92 79 92 79 / 30 10 30 40 West Kendall 91 76 92 77 / 40 0 30 40 Opa-Locka 93 79 93 79 / 30 10 30 40 Homestead 92 78 92 79 / 30 10 30 50 Fort Lauderdale 91 79 91 81 / 20 10 20 40 N Ft Lauderdale 92 80 92 79 / 20 10 20 40 Pembroke Pines 92 80 92 80 / 20 10 30 40 West Palm Beach 93 78 93 78 / 20 10 30 30 Boca Raton 91 79 91 79 / 20 10 20 30 Naples 92 77 93 77 / 20 10 20 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...Rizzuto  484 FXUS64 KLUB 241104 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 604 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 603 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Very hot temperatures continue Monday and Tuesday with possible record breaking highs on Monday. - Elevated fire conditions expected Monday afternoon with breezy southwesterly winds and low RH values. - Thunderstorm chances every evening from Monday through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The rest of tonight will be quiet and with unseasonably warm lows. Lows will range from the lower 70s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to lower 80s across the eastern portions of the Rolling Plains. Light southerly winds will gradually shift to the west through the overnight hours as a surface low to the north of the forecast area shifts to the southeast. Winds are also expected to increase to around 15 mph through the morning and early afternoon hours. Winds will weaken and become variable through the late afternoon and evening hours as the surface low continues to move away from the region and a boundary looks to move in from the north. Very similar to the past few days, the upper ridging will remain over the region Monday resulting in very hot temperatures again. Temperatures will range from 104 to 109 degrees on the Caprock and up to 113 degrees off the Caprock. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and the Rolling Plains and a Heat Advisory is in effect for the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and South Plains from noon until 8 PM Monday. Record breaking high temperatures are possible at both KLBB and KCDS. The current daily high temperature for KLBB is 104 degrees set in 2024 and KCDS is 109 degrees set in 1936. The forecast highs for KLBB and KCDS are 106 and 110 degrees, respectively. With breezy winds through much of the afternoon and RH values dropping as low as 12 percent, elevated fire conditions will be possible Monday, especially during the afternoon. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect for the far southern Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and Rolling Plains from noon until 8 PM Monday. A surface trough across CO/NM will result in isolated to maybe scattered thunderstorms developing across eastern NM. There is a slight chance for these thunderstorms to sneak into our forecast area, especially across areas on the Caprock, late Monday afternoon through the evening. Not expecting much from these storms, however could see gusty outflows and plenty of lightning. A boundary pushing in from the north could prolong storms through the overnight hours. However, the chances for that are low. Once the storms clear the region, the rest of the night is expected to be quiet with lows in the upper 60s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and lower 80s across the southern Rolling Plains. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Luckily, Monday will be the hottest day of the week and Tuesday will be the start of a "cool" down the rest of the week. The upper ridging that parked over the region the past few days will finally begin to retreat west on Tuesday. Models are in agreement the upper ridging will remain over the Desert Southwest through the latter half of the week. Although Tuesday will be slightly cooler compared to Monday, high temperatures will remain in the triple digits. Highs off the Caprock will be around Heat Advisory temperatures(105-109 degrees), therefore can expect a Heat Advisory issued in future forecasts. High temperatures the rest of the week will range from mid 90s to just below Heat Advisory temperatures. Multiple passing embedded shortwaves will bring thunderstorm chances every late afternoon and evening from Tuesday through Thursday. Sadly, models are indicating the upper ridging will push back east over the region through the weekend bringing dry conditions and very hot temperatures again. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR is expected though the TAF period. However, a front is expected to stall out in the southern Texas Panhandle. This may bring more variable winds to the KCDS terminal this afternoon. There is a slight chance of storms along this stalled out boundary but chances are too low to mention in the TAF at the moment. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>023-027>030-033>036-039>041. Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032-037-038-042>044. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...01  601 FXUS64 KFWD 241106 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 606 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Very hot temperatures between 102 to 112 will continue through Tuesday. The Extreme Heat Warning for all of North and Central Texas is in effect through this evening, and will likely be needed on Tuesday as well. - A drop in temperatures down into the upper 90s to mid 100s is expected from Wednesday into next weekend as low rain chances return areawide each day. However, most locations will remain hot and dry through the weekend. - Hot temperatures, low humidity and worsening drought conditions will contribute to increased wildfire starts through the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 202 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Water vapor imagery and 00Z upper air raob analysis show a mid- level ridge centered near southern New Mexico early this morning. Westerly flow over the Rockies on the northern periphery of the ridge has led to lee cyclogenesis, resulting in a weak 1008mb surface low centered over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Lift from a shortwave propagating around the ridge will promote pressure falls over an existing weak front in western OK, migrating the surface low eastward by late morning. This will tighten the pressure gradient over North and Central TX and veer surface winds to the SSW. Given mid-level subsidence from the ridge and downslope effects from the 15-20 mph SSW winds, we expect dangerous, extreme heat across North and Central TX today. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect from 12-9pm for high temps and/or heat index values up to 111 degrees. Know the signs and symptoms of heat illness, and limit strenuous outdoor activities today! While early morning convection upstream of our area may bring mid or high clouds into the area, these unfortunately will not prevent compressional warming from the downslope flow. Additionally, the hot, breezy conditions combined with extremely dry fuels and low afternoon RH (15-20%) will elevate our fire threat today. A Grass Fire Danger Statement has been issued for areas west of I-35 this afternoon, where RH will be lowest, temperatures hottest, and skies clearest. Precip chances remain below mentionable in the short term, although silent (10%) PoPs have been added in Northeast TX due to the possibility that the shortwave will bring isolated showers and storms through that area Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 202 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 The upper ridge will begin to shift west on Tuesday, but the air mass over North and Central Texas will remain quite hot. Afternoon temperatures will again climb into the 100-109 range, with the warmest temperatures across North Texas. Heat headlines will once again be needed, however, given the lower temperatures across Central Texas, the ongoing Excessive Heat Warning may be converted to a Heat Advisory. This decision will be made later today with the afternoon forecast package. A more noticeable pattern adjustment arrives Wednesday as the ridge axis settles farther west across the Desert Southwest. This will place the Southern Plains within weak northerly flow aloft and allow temperatures to back off a few degrees. Highs from Wednesday through the weekend should generally range from the upper 90s to 105 degrees. The northerly flow pattern will also open the door for occasional weak disturbances to move south into the region. Rain chances will remain low and poorly timed, but isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible at times from midweek into the weekend. Most areas will stay dry on any given day. Where storms do develop, gusty outflow winds, lightning and brief heavy rainfall will be the main concerns. The prolonged stretch of hot and mostly dry weather will continue to aggravate drought and fire weather concerns. Afternoon humidity will remain low enough to support additional initial attack fire starts, especially in areas that miss out on any rainfall. Late in the weekend into next Monday, guidance suggests the ridge may attempt to expand east again. If this occurs, temperatures would trend upward and rain chances would decrease once more heading into the final week of August. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the period. A weak low pressure system is slowly migrating eastward into western Oklahoma; our proximity to this low and its associated pressure gradient will keep winds sustained around 12-15KT today with occasional gusts up to 20-25KT. The influence of this low will likely override any effects of thermal eddies, which had caused variable winds on Sunday afternoon. Metroplex sites will have a very low (10-15%) chance to be clipped by showers that may move through Northeast TX on Tuesday morning (most likely 09-15Z) associated with a shortwave. Given the low probability and continued disagreement in short-term ensemble guidance on this scenario, we have opted not to include a precip mention in the 24-30 hour period of the DFW TAF. No precipitation is expected at KACT. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 108 84 105 83 / 0 10 10 0 Waco 106 79 103 79 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 104 78 103 77 / 10 10 10 10 Denton 109 82 106 79 / 10 10 10 0 McKinney 106 82 104 79 / 10 10 10 0 Dallas 108 83 106 82 / 0 10 10 0 Terrell 107 79 104 78 / 0 10 10 10 Corsicana 107 78 103 79 / 0 0 10 10 Temple 106 77 103 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 110 78 107 76 / 0 0 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095- 100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fenske LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Fenske/Hernandez  626 FXUS65 KTFX 241106 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 506 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler, drier, and less windy conditions move in for the next couple of days, but there will be lingering gusty winds in the Milk River Valley area today. - Temperatures warm back above average and shower and thunderstorm activity increases in coverage by mid-week. - A Pacific weather system looks to bring more shower and thunderstorm activity, cooler temperatures, and gusty westerly winds this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 114 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: The closed low responsible for yesterdays wind, thunderstorms, and elevated fire weather conditions is now moving eastward into the Canadian Prairies. Cooler, drier, and less windy conditions will be left in its wake, but there will be some lingering gusty northwesterly winds over plains east of I15. These winds will be most impactful over the Milk River Valley where winds will routinely gust in the 20 to 30 mph range. Although mostly dry conditions will prevail today, subtle shortwave energy and lingering instability may bring isolated shower and thunderstorm activity to areas along the MT/ID/WY borders in far southwest MT today. There may also be some passing low and mid- level clouds along the Hi-Line on the backside of the aforementioned closed low. Ridging aloft begins to build in over the interior west for the mid- week period, but another trough approaching the Pacific NW will gradually bring an increasingly southwesterly flow aloft over the Northern Rockies. This will warm temperatures back above average and bring a slow northward expansion of scattered shower and thunderstorm activity as the week progresses. The Pacific NW trough looks to send stronger shortwaves into an environment with ML CAPE running in the 300 to 900 J/kg range and Wednesday and Thursday. These should be the busiest convective days if this set up occurs. Dry sub-cloud layers will make localized gusty winds and lightning the primary concerns with this activity. The trough eventually ejects eastward towards the Northern Rockies sometime this weekend into early next week. While there are some timing and depth discrepancies among ensemble members, the most likely scenario looks to be more scattered more shower and thunderstorm activity, cooler temperatures, and periods of gusty westerly winds. -RCG && .AVIATION... 24/12Z TAF Period Drier and less windy conditions will prevail in the wake of yesterday's frontal passage; however, there will be gusty northwesterly winds over the plains east of I15, along with scattered, mostly mid-level, clouds along the Hi-Line. KHVR looks to see the strongest winds with routine gusts over 20 kts. Shower and thunderstorm activity is generally not expected today, but there may be some convective builds or even a few showers/storms along the MT/ID/WY borders in southwest MT this afternoon and evening. Wildfire smoke, mostly from the Camp Creek Fire, will compromise slantwise visibility and may bring low VFR/MVFR visibility at times. For KGTF: Light and variable winds will increase and become northwesterly by this afternoon. There's around a 40% chance for cross winds over 15 kts, mostly between 24/17 and 24/22Z. Visibility reductions from wildfire smoke was left out of the TAF, but there may be low VFR/MVFR visibility at times in addition to compromised slantwise visibility upon ascent/descent. - RCG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 80 52 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 76 48 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 83 53 85 56 / 0 10 10 10 BZN 82 49 84 50 / 0 10 20 10 WYS 79 40 7840 / 0 20 30 30 DLN 84 49 84 49 / 0 20 20 20 HVR 82 51 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 78 48 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  732 FXUS63 KDVN 241107 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 607 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather continues through Tuesday with temperatures around 80 degrees today and in the lower 80s on Tuesday. - Warmer temperatures on Wednesday with the next chances for showers and storms. Another round of showers and storms is possible next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 112 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Nice late August weather is forecast to continue through Tuesday. High pressure sits across the area through today. Shortwave energy moving through the flow will result in variably cloudy skies across the area today especially during the afternoon. High temperatures this afternoon will be around 80 degrees. Tonight into Tuesday, high pressure shifts to the east of the area allowing light winds to turn to the south. Temperatures rise slightly tonight and Tuesday but the forecast continues to be dry. Low temperatues tonight are forecast to be around 60 degrees with widespread high temperatures Tuesday in the lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 112 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Little change in the overall forecast thinking across the region over the next 7 days. Northwesterly flow continues across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region. A shortwave is forecast to move into the Great Lakes Tuesday night through Wednesday night with the better forcing to our north and east. 25 to 45 percent chance of showers and storms across the area is now mainly on Wednesday morning. High temperature on Wednesday will warm into the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s resulting in CAPE around 500 to 1500 J/KG and 0 to 6 km shear around 30 knots may result in isolated severe storms. High pressure is forecast to build into area for the second half of the week. The flow aloft becomes more progressive late this week into next weekend as a storm system digs into the Pacific Northwest and flattens the Plains ridge. This has been delayed from previous forecasts until the weekend. However a subtle wave Saturday will bring the potential for another round of showers and storms during the morning with a another potential round of showers and storms Sunday into Monday. Despite POPs each period Saturday through Monday, there were will be a lot of dry hours with the broad-brushed Pops being due to timing differences between different operational models and their ensembles. Temperatures gradually increase from the lower 80s on Thursday to widespread mid to upper 80s on Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Light and variable winds with thin high cloud cover or clear skies will dominate the next 24 hours, following a bit of shallow fog early this morning. There is patchy fog being reported over eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois as of 11Z this morning, but none at our terminals. I do think it remains possible to get some MVFR or very brief IFR visibility in the next hour or two, mainly at CID and BRL, but this is not going to be a long lasting threat, or one that affects more than a few sites early today. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cousins LONG TERM...Cousins AVIATION...Ervin  748 FXUS63 KTOP 241108 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 608 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -A band of scattered showers and storms is possible for a few hours this morning. -A few severe storms could then develop Tuesday afternoon and evening. -Temperatures remain fairly consistent throughout the week with warmer weather returning this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 The synoptic pattern remains largely unchanged this morning, with the mid-level ridge remaining centered over New Mexico. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave over southwestern KS which is generating cloud cover and light rain. There is also a band of showers and storms in south-central KS and north-central OK that has developed just ahead of a surface low in and area of isentropic ascent. Most CAMs show that band of precipitation expanding northward into the area toward sunrise as isentropic ascent increases northeast. There will be around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE, but fairly weak shear as the LLJ looks to stay south of the area. So while thunderstorms are possible, severe weather is not expected this morning. Rain and storms should quickly dissipate as the ascent decreases mid-morning. Temperatures then warm well into the 80s for much of the area this afternoon with heat index values a few degrees higher. The next chance for thunderstorms will be Tuesday afternoon and evening with models showing another shortwave moving over the area within the northwest flow aloft. The environment should be more favorable for a few severe storms with around 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and limited CIN. Shear again isn't overly impressive so damaging wind gusts appear to be the main concern, especially with DCAPE around 1000 J/kg. A weak surface boundary then moves through northeast KS on Wednesday and high pressure expands southward behind it. The mid-level ridge looks to move slightly westward, keeping the track of shortwaves west of the area. Thus, dry weather is expected through the end of the week. Temperatures remain fairly consistent each day with lows in the 60s and highs in the mid to upper 80s through the workweek before temperatures warm further this weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Scattered thunderstorms have developed very early this morning and could impact airports through about 14Z before dissipating. Once TS is out of the area, VFR will prevail with clouds clearing and winds around 10 kts out of the southeast. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Teefey  767 FXUS64 KOHX 241108 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 608 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 608 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Look for dry, cooler evening and overnight periods through Tuesday morning. Fog is possible across the river valleys each morning. - Low to medium rain and storm chances return Wednesday and Wednesday night, then taper off on Thursday. But no hazardous weather is expected at this time. - Temperatures from Wednesday through the weekend will stay close to seasonal norms, then perhaps a little warmer to start off next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 513 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Satellite continues to show patchy fog near bodies of water again this morning, some of which could be dense at times. Not widespread enough for an advisory, but worth mentioning. We've got another fantastic day on tap with near normal temperatures and dew points in the upper 50s and low 60s. Rain and storms still being shown to return on Wednesday. Forecast soundings are on the edge of starting to mention the outside potential for a strong storm or two. Will discuss this more with the full forecast package later this morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday Night) Issued at 953 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Temperatures are cooling off quite nicely this evening and low dew points are allowing for excellent radiation cooling across Middle Tennessee. We've got couple of cool nights in store, along with non-existent rain chances the next couple of days. This evening, high pressure centered over the upper midwest is keeping the air mass over Middle Tennessee dry and a little cooler than seasonal norms, while we remain underneath a northwest flow aloft with ridging situated to our west. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 953 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Our next rain chances start to develop on Wednesday as a surface low comes together over the Arklatex and develops a boundary across the Gulf Coast states and into the Tennessee Valley. It's not a lot to work with, but we do introduce low to medium PoPs Wednesday and Wednesday night, with rain chances tapering off on Thursday as the system pulls off to the east. Although there will be some storm chances, QPF values are somewhat anemic, and we certainly aren't outlooked for any severe storms for the foreseeable future. Temperatures will warm up to seasonal values by Wednesday, with readings staying close to seasonal norms through the weekend, then warming up a bit to start off next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 608 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 LIFR fog being seen only at MQY this morning. This should improve to VFR by 13-14Z as we start to warm up. Otherwise, mostly VFR conditions with light northerly winds. Have included another night of fog for SRB/CSV tonight. VLIFR possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 89 62 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 87 61 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 82 58 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 90 63 91 65 / 0 0 0 10 Cookeville 83 60 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 82 58 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 88 62 90 64 / 0 0 0 10 Murfreesboro 89 62 91 64 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 88 64 89 65 / 0 0 0 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Unger SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Unger  205 FXUS63 KABR 241112 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 612 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for portions of south central and northeastern SD this afternoon and evening and a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for the remainder of central and northeast SD into west central MN. The main hazards include golf ball size hail and 60-75 mph wind gusts. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 117 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 As of 1 AM CDT, storms are staying in western SD and out of our forecast area. Temperatures are in the 60s with winds out of the east to southeast at around 10 mph. A warm front followed by a cold front will move across the region throughout the day and into the evening hours. This warm front will help temperatures be a little warmer today with highs in the 80s to low 90s, warmest across central SD. The cold front will help pop off some thunderstorms this evening across central SD that will move southeast and across the area. There could be a second wave that moves down out of North Dakota closer to midnight Tuesday morning. There is a Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for portions of south central SD and portions of northeastern SD and a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms across the remainder of the forecast area. The main hazards for these storms will be golf ball size hail and 60-75 mph wind gusts. PWAT values are around 1.25" which is in the 97th NAEFS percentile so some brief heavy downpours are possible as well, although as a secondary threat. Overall chance of storms is 30-40% with the first round along the Missouri River and east to the James River. With the second round after midnight, chances across far northeastern SD increase to 40-60%. Our next widespread chance for storms will be Thursday evening into Friday as a low coming off the Rockies pushes out high pressure. Saturday and Sunday evenings could be stormy as well as we return to a more active pattern, but confidence on severe weather is low at this time. Temperatures after today return to right about normal, with a slight increase towards the end of the period. Winds Tuesday behind the cold front could gust up to 35 mph in northern SD. That cold front also looks to bring another round of elevated smoke to the area for Tuesday. There could be a band of higher concentrations over northeast SD, but little to no smoke is expected at the surface. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 611 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours except in any heavier showers or thunderstorms this evening. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...20  355 FXUS63 KGRB 241115 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 615 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry today, then shower/storm chances (40-80%) at times Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. Low risk of severe weather, mainly Tuesday evening/night. - Comfortable today with highs near normal, then temps climb slightly above normal with increasing humidity mid-week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 143 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Today into Tonight...Light winds, clear skies have produced ideal radiational cooling conditions across the region early this morning, with temps dropping into the 30s across the typical cold spots across northern WI. A little patchy ground fog will once again be possible early this morning and overnight into early Tuesday, mainly across central and northern WI. Any fog would burn off shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, dry and quiet conditions are expected today into tonight, with high clouds increasing through the day. It will be less windy, with northwest winds generally under 12 mph, with some higher gusts this morning in/near Door Co. Shower/Storm Chances Tuesday into Wednesday...Chances for showers and storms will increase on Tuesday as a shortwave and cold front approach from the west. The HRRR is the most aggressive with the first batch of showers and isolated storms, bringing it all the way through the area Tuesday morning. Other CAMs hint at some activity, but thinking the dry air will eat away at its eastward advancement, so have only brought 20-30% chances in the parts of central and north-central WI. Behind the initial area, instability will build within the warm sector, with SBCAPEs climbing to at least 500-1000 J/kg, highest in north-central WI, with some 2000 J/kg possible towards northwest WI. 0-6 km bulk shear should be in the 25-30 kt range, allowing for some organized storm activity. Could have some isolated activity in the warm sector during the day, but the main show looks to develop across northwest WI during the afternoon/evening as the shortwave dives into northern MN and the front arrives. Machine Learning guidance has honed in on this area for the greatest severe weather threat, which could extend into parts of north central WI Tuesday evening (SPC brings the Marginal Risk to the CWA border), with gusty winds and hail the main threats. Storms will likely become more elevated through the night, with the area of showers and embedded shores spreading across the area Tuesday evening/night, with 50-80% chances across the area. While widespread heavy rain is unlikely with probabilities of over 0.5" at 50% or less (highest over northern WI), some locally heavy rain will be possible in any storms, and especially if any training storms occur. Other areas of moderate rain are also expected Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, so many spots will at least put a dent into the drought conditions. Models remain in fair agreement with faster FROPA on Wednesday, pushing the primary severe risk farther east. Enough cool air aloft with the trough to result in shower/storm chances (20-70%, highest north/east), especially during peak heating. Lingering instability could lead to a strong storm with gusty winds and hail. Thursday into the Weekend...northwest, cyclonic flow across the western Great Lakes could produce a few showers on Thursday, especially in the afternoon during peak heating and steepest low- level lapse rates. But with the colder air aloft and better forcing to our north/east, along with dry air, will limit the shower potential with chances under 20% (highest near Door Co.). Dry conditions are expected on Friday as weak high pressure slides across the region. Next chances for showers and storms (20-40%)move back into the area from the southwest this weekend as flow aloft becomes more zonal. While the higher threat for severe weather and flooding will be to our south/west, any northward shift would bring the threat into our area, at least for a day or two. Temperatures...After the chilly conditions this morning, temps the rest of the week look to be near normal or slightly above normal. Warmest days with highs in the low-mid 80s should be Tuesday ahead of the front. Warmest night in the 60s much of the area will be Tuesday night with clouds, showers/storms and some wind. Lows could drop back into the upper 30s and 40s again late this week over the north. && .AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Other than very patchy ground fog, mainly across central and north-central WI, early this morning and again late tonight, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Drier air will limit the fair weather cumulus clouds today, but high clouds will spread across the region through the day. Winds will be lighter today, with northwest winds generally under 10 kts. Light and variable winds are expected tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 143 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Northwest winds of 15-22 kts continue north of Sturgeon Bay early this morning, with a few gusts to 25 kts near Death's Door. The strongest of the winds will continue through sunrise, so will just let the Small Craft Exercise Caution run its course through 12z. Winds will slowly ease after sunrise. A period of persistent south/southwest winds is forecast on Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Gusts to 25 kts will be possible, with waves building to at least 2 to 4 ft with some 5 foot waves possible. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed. A moderate swim risk is also expected on Lake Michigan beaches. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Bersch AVIATION.......Bersch MARINE.........Bersch  279 FXUS64 KSHV 241114 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 614 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 123 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - An increase in showers and thunderstorms after daybreak this morning across Southeast Arkansas and Eastern Louisiana will result in cooler temperatures and some spotty much needed rainfall for these areas today. - Oppressive heat will continue elsewhere across the region today, despite an increase in elevated cloud cover and isolated showers and thunderstorms. Thus, the Heat Advisory remains in effect today for McCurtain County Oklahoma, East Texas, extreme Southwest Arkansas, Western and Central Louisiana. - The oppressive heat will return areawide Tuesday and continue through much of this week, although daytime temperatures should slowly back away from the century mark across Southwest Arkansas and North Louisiana by late week as the potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms return. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 123 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 The early morning sfc analysis indicates a weak inverted sfc trough extending from the Red River Valley of Srn OK into extreme NE TX to along the AR/LA line, although this bndry will remain inactive overnight before slowly returning back N later this morning. However, this may be short-lived as a weak perturbation aloft begins to slide SE across NE OK and the Ozarks into the Mid-South region overnight, which should enhance increasing convection development especially as a 30-40kt SWrly LLJ feeds better forcing into these areas. Thus, convection should deepen by/after daybreak over Nrn/Ern AR and slide SE into the Lower MS Valley, which should tap into stronger heating/instability farther S as the convection shifts into Ern LA/much of MS. Despite the increasing cloud cover, believe that daytime temps should climb at least into the lower/mid 90s by afternoon over these areas, yielding sufficient instability within a high moisture environment characteristic of PW's of 1.8-1.9 inches. Thus, isolated strong to severe storms with the potential for damaging downburst winds will be possible mainly over the ECntrl LA, with convection expected to be more isolated farther W across SW AR/Wrn LA. Did expand the NBM pops back W to accommodate some of the HREF solutions, with the thickening cloud cover/increasing convection resulting in cooler temperatures over more of NCntrl LA than previously forecast. As a result, have cancelled the Heat Advisory today for Claiborne, Lincoln, Union, and Ouachita Parishes, although criteria will be more marginal farther SE into ECntrl LA which may see criteria by late morning/early afternoon before the convection/outflow cools these areas. Despite some elevated cigs farther W, temps should again near/exceed the triple digits again especially over E TX/Wrn LA, with heat indices ranging from 105-110 degrees. Any isolated remnant convection should end by early this afternoon, although overnight cooling will remain limited given the persistent elevated cigs and S winds. Even with the ridge center mainly unchanged over NM/far W TX Tuesday, and some elevated cigs lingering through the afternoon, the oppressive heat will continue and expand back areawide, with the string of triple digits expected to continue across E TX in the least, with heat indices again ranging from 105-110 degrees. The Heat Advisory will likely be extended/expanded back E again Tuesday by the day shift to highlight the major heat impacts, even as the potential remains for isolated convection mainly in the morning for Srn AR and ECntrl LA. The progs continue to suggest that the ridge center will begin to retrograde farther W into the Desert SW for mid and late week, resulting in a better defined NW flow regime over the region. While triple digits should be widespread again Wednesday even with isolated convection possible across the Ern zones in the afternoon, convection may increase Wednesday night with the approach of another weakness aloft that will slide SSE around the ridge, and linger across E TX/N LA Thursday. The increasing cloud cover and convection should finally result in "cooler" daytime temps away from the century mark Thursday, which may carry over into Friday even as the weakness aloft shifts farther S into coastal SE TX/S LA. However, above normal temps and mostly dry conditions will continue over the region through the remainder of the extended, as the riding aloft begins to expand back E into the area and Lower MS Valley/Mid-South region. 15 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 For the 24/12Z TAF period, VFR conditions should prevail across all but the eastern third of our airspace where late morning, afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could possibly impact the ELD and MLU terminals. Across the remainder of our airspace, increasing elevated ceilings above 12kft will spread from southward across our airspace with ceilings a little harder to come by across the TYR and LFK terminals. Convection should dissipate across our eastern half during the late evening hours Look for mostly S to SW winds near 10kts with some higher gusts across our airspace with the exception of the TXK/ELD and MLU terminals where winds will be mostly variable, at least through mid morning. 13 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 123 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Spotter activation may be needed today across portions of North Central Louisiana for the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging downburst winds. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 100 79 100 79 / 20 10 10 0 MLU 92 75 97 75 / 60 20 20 0 DEQ 95 72 101 72 / 20 10 10 0 TXK 97 77 99 76 / 20 10 10 0 ELD 92 74 98 74 / 40 20 20 0 TYR 105 79 102 79 / 0 10 10 0 GGG 104 78 102 78 / 10 10 10 0 LFK 102 77 100 76 / 0 10 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-059-070-071. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>003-010>013- 017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...13  298 FXUS65 KRIW 241115 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 515 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another active weather day is in store today with most locations having a 30% to 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Showers or thunderstorms will be capable of 45 to 60 mph winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. - Shower and thunderstorms chances exist each afternoon Tuesday through the upcoming weekend. High temperatures each day this week are forecast to be in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 40s and 50s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 2:30 AM upper level water vapor imagery shows largely zonal flow with an embedded shortwave disturbance over Wyoming, thanks to an upper high centered over New Mexico. This disturbance has been the focus for showers and a few thunderstorms across southern Wyoming late Sunday night/early Monday morning. As this shortwave progresses eastward through sunrise, coverage is expected to diminish with only a few isolated showers across Sweetwater County. Temperatures today, and most of this week, are forecast to have highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 40s and 50s. An active day is in store as another shortwave rounds the stagnant upper high to our south. This shortwave looks to shift into western Wyoming around noon/1PM Monday, allowing convection to take advantage of peak heating (BL CAPE ranging from 500 to 1000 J/kg). Most locations have a 20% to 50% chance of a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon and evening due to abundant available moisture in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Model forecast soundings are showing a classic inverted-V profile and indicating DCAPE values around 1100 J/kg. Additionally, dew point depressions range from 45 to 55 degrees. These parameters suggest that thunderstorms will be capable of 45 to 60 mph gusty outflows and this correlates well with the SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk across much of Wyoming. Thunderstorms will also be capable of frequent lightning and the potential for small hail cannot be ruled out with steep mid level lapse rates. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast roughly from Noon through at least 1AM Tuesday, with the severe thunderstorm potential occurring between 1PM and 9PM. Given today's shortwave will be working with monsoonal moisture and PWATs around the 90th percentile of climatology, any shower or thunderstorm will be capable of heavy rain and localized flooding. It is important to note that storms will be moving today with cloud layer shear in the 30 to 40kt range. The localized flooding issues arise if multiple storms traverse over the same area. The current forecasted QPF for today and tonight is a broad brushed 0.01 - 0.1 inches due to the overall scattered, but widespread coverage, nature of storms today. It is very difficult, if not impossible, to pin point the exact locations of showers and thunderstorms that could traverse over the same area and/or produce heavier rainfall rates. On Tuesday, the aforementioned upper high will build northwards into the Great Basin with a ridge axis over Idaho. As this builds, another shortwave, although weaker than today, is forecast to traverse across Wyoming and bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances. Flow will be more west to west-northwesterly with the building ridge to our west, so monsoonal moisture is forecast to be greatest across west, northwest, and northern Wyoming. Given the weaker support aloft with overall height rises, showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon are forecast to be largely orographically and diurnally driven along and north of the Continental Divide. The upper ridge slowly shifts east across Wyoming on Wednesday and Thursday with shortwave disturbances both afternoons. Wednesday currently looks to have less coverage and be largely terrain driven compared to Thursday. This is most likely due to height rises aloft suppressing more numerous convective activity. As the forecast currently stands, a more potent shortwave will be present as the ridge shifts east out of Wyoming on Thursday. This means that Thursday could be an active weather day for the area. Wyoming is currently forecast to be in southwest flow behind the ridge Friday through at least Sunday with embedded shortwaves each day. This ultimately means that another weekend with afternoon showers and thunderstorms is looking possible. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 513 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the state after 18Z/19Z. All terminals have at least a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms at some point between the 19Z Monday and 06Z Tuesday. There is a reasonable amount of uncertainty with regards to direct impacts and timing of convection, so maintained PROB30s at this time. After the afternoon and early Monday evening thunderstorm chances end, lingering rain showers are possible at KJAC and KRKS and in the area of KCPR, KRIW, KLND, and KBPI. These chances are reflected in additional PROB30 or VCSH groups. Any showers or thunderstorms that are at or nearby a terminal will be capable of 35 to 45 kt winds, frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and occasional mountain obscurations. Brief periods of MVFR to even IFR flight conditions cannot be ruled out if a shower or thunderstorm directly impacts a terminal. Otherwise, expect mid to high level clouds throughout the TAF period. Outside of any showers or thunderstorms, winds will generally remain around 12kts or less. Occasional gusts around 20 kts are possible at KCPR and KRKS Monday afternoon. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gerhardt AVIATION...Gerhardt  406 FXUS61 KBOX 241117 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 717 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added Martha's Vineyard to the Rip Current Statement today. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier with more seasonable temperatures today through much of this week. - Rain chances return Thursday/Friday, though drier conditions look to return heading into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Drier with more seasonable temperatures today through much of this week. Higher dewpoints with light winds and wet surfaces have aided in the development of areas of fog this morning, particularly in areas that tend to be more prone to it. This is expected to burn off shortly after sunrise. A cold front associated with low pressure centered over eastern Ontario/western Quebec continues to track east over New England into the morning hours today. In its wake, clearer skies and breezy southwesterly winds prevail over southern New England. Occasional gusts to around 20-25 MPH are possible in the afternoon. Temperatures today return to more seasonable levels with highs back in the upper 70s and low 80s. This general pattern will continue at least into Wednesday as high pressure slowly builds in behind the front. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances return Thursday/Friday, though drier conditions look to return heading into the weekend. High pressure looks to shift offshore heading into Thursday ahead of a shortwave over the Great Lakes. Slightly more agreement amongst the ensembles regarding the track of its associated low pressure has come into the picture with the latest model runs, but uncertainty still remains. Low pressure develops over the Great Lakes, which guidance also resolves as extending up into Hudson Bay on the front end of the upper level trough. This low pressure is slated to track east through Canada, bringing showers down through New England. Timing-wise, guidance continues to key in on late Thursday/early Friday as the onset time for rain to return to southern New England, lasting through Friday. NAEFS guidance has continued to show more anomalous PWATs returning over the region within this timeframe as well. This will very likely change to some degree in the coming days as we approach this event. Following rain towards the end of the work week, there are indications that high pressure makes a return heading into Saturday, drying out southern New England once more. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12z TAF Update... Today and Tonight...High confidence. VFR with SW winds of 7-13 kt with a few gusts up to 20 kts possible in the afternoon/evening hours across the region, though ACK may remain under an inversion that prevents the development of gusts based on the latest forecast soundings. VFR conditions continue tonight outside of any localized patches of ground fog that develop in typically prone locations. Winds become calm/light SW overnight. Tuesday...High confidence. Generally VFR, though lower end VFR to higher end MVFR possible over the interior. W winds 6-13 kt with gusts near the Cape and Islands nearing 20 kt possible. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Low clouds remain possible through 12z this morning. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in trends but lower confidence in specific timing. Fog has not developed yet within the valley, though could expect it to do so over the next few hours and reach BDL before sunrise. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Tuesday...High confidence. Seas remain generally 2-4 ft through Tuesday. SW winds today into tonight up to 12 kt may gust to around 20 kt towards the afternoon hours. Winds then shift more to the W at 10-15 kt heading into Tuesday morning, though winds over the near northern waters may remain more S and below 10 kt through the afternoon. Gusts over the southern waters Tuesday may reach 20 kt or so again in the afternoon. Swell periods of 11-12 seconds are expected off the coasts of Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket, which will lead to a higher risk of rip currents along south-facing beaches there, warranting expansion of the Rip Current Statement over the Vineyard. A moderate risk for rip currents extends along SE MA and RI beaches due to swells as well. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 6 PM EDT this evening for MAZ023- 024. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hrencecin AVIATION...Hrencecin/FT MARINE...Hrencecin  378 FXUS61 KOKX 241115 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 715 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased POPs for today and Tuesday relative to previous forecast. Otherwise, no other significant changes made. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated to widely scattered shower activity for afternoon into evening today and Tuesday. A slight chance of a thunderstorm also for some locations afternoon into early evening. 2) Brief totally dry conditions midweek but chances for showers and thunderstorms return with greater coverage potential Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... The forecast for today into tonight exhibited change with respect to probability for precipitation. This has trended higher compared to the previous forecast. Also, again this forecast has been manually increased above the POP forecast from the National Blend of Models. The manual increase was done because of the consistent and coherent reflectivity forecasts from many CAMs. Synoptic pattern shows a slow moving closed upper level low that will move across to the north of the region today into tonight. At the surface, a weak cold front will move across. Multiple embedded shortwaves are shown to move across the periphery of this closed upper level low, bringing multiple periods of positive vorticity advection. The heights actually stay nearly constant during this time period as the center of the upper low has slightly increasing heights today into tonight. The vertical forcing will not be too much as a result and thereby will limit coverage of showers to isolated to widely scattered at most. Layer precipitable waters on the lower side for this event, just near 1.25 inch at most. Not expecting any flooding issues but perhaps a brief gusty wind and quick downpour. Would expect slightly less precipitable waters for Tuesday with the more westerly flow. Heights aloft slightly rise as closed upper level low shifts farther northward and starts to become more of an open wave trough. Once again, an embedded shortwave with its positive vorticity advection moves across the area during the day. At the surface, another weak cold front moves across Tuesday into Tuesday night. With less moisture, POPs only slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, or equivalently, isolated showers and thunderstorms. Regarding temperatures, the forecast values are not too remarkable. They are expected to be within a few degrees of normal values for both Monday and Tuesday. Most locations though with their respective high temperature forecasts, do exhibit a small decrease from Monday to Tuesday. .KEY MESSAGE 2... The open wave trough heading into midweek is forecast to shift farther northeast. Across the local area, ridging takes place with a quasi-zonal flow. The ridge axis though already moves across the area late Wednesday into Wednesday night. For late Wednesday night into Thursday, the flow aloft is returning to more SW flow and the next trough will start to move into interior portions of the Northeast. The trough will continue to move east with its closed upper level low for late week but does not push as much south as the previous trough has done for the early week period. Heights aloft across the local area do not change too significantly and any height falls will be slight. At the surface, weak large area of high pressure builds across the area Wednesday but will be centered fairly quickly offshore. Then there will be an approaching frontal system from the west for Thursday. This may linger into Friday with a lingering associated cold front. The aforementioned heights aloft and farther northward track of the closed low will mean less steering flow for this front. The forecast has the next showers and thunderstorms for the area within this Thursday through Friday night timeframe with showers being likely Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Chances for thunderstorms are present and should be able to develop as the airmass becomes a warm and humid airmass with the synoptic setup. The driving factors appear to be more in the low levels compared to the upper levels. Highs forecast Thursday and Friday more in the low to mid 80s but with dewpoints in upper 60s to near 70, max heat indices reach in the upper 80s to near 90 for parts of the region. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A trough of low pressure lingers across the region today with high pressure gradually building from the west. VFR expected to prevail through the TAF period. There is a low chance of a few isolated showers / thunderstorms this afternoon. Confidence remains too low to include in the TAF. Winds will be light mainly out of the W/SW through mid morning, then increase into this afternoon to or just above 10 kt with gusts around 20 to 25 kt. An isolated gust up to 30 kt can't be ruled out. Some coastal terminals may not gust, or gusts may not be as frequent. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... An isolated gust up to 30 kt can't be ruled out this afternoon. Isolated showers are possible this afternoon, but confidence remains too low to include in the TAF. .OUTLOOK FOR 12z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Tuesday: VFR. WSW around 10 kt. Wednesday: VFR. Light WSW/SW winds. Thursday: VFR Thu AM, becoming sub VFR with SHRA/TSRA. Friday: Mostly VFR, with a brief period of sub VFR with SHRA/TSRA. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... The pressure gradient remains relatively weak on average through midweek across the local region. As a result, conditions on the forecast waters are expected to remain below small craft advisory thresholds. There will be increasing potential for small craft conditions at least on the ocean late week with high pressure offshore and an approaching frontal system. This will set up a tightening pressure gradient. Rip Currents: For the ocean beaches of NYC and Long Island, multiple onshore components comprise the waves for both today and Tuesday. The wave heights forecast are near 2 to 3 feet today and will be around 2 ft on Tuesday. The forecast winds are more onshore today with more SW flow and will be more westerly on Tuesday. Max daytime wind speeds for both days will be within the 10-15 kt range. With the more onshore winds and relatively greater wave heights today, this will present a moderate risk of rip currents. With the more westerly winds and less onshore component and slightly lower wave heights Wednesday, this will still present a moderate risk of rip currents but some ocean beaches could end up being more on the low side for rip current risks. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...JE MARINE...JM  403 FXUS63 KSGF 241117 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 617 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri into this morning. Damaging wind to 60 mph and hail to the size of quarters are the primary severe weather hazards. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding are also possible. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 A difficult forecast given models significant diverging from previous solutions. However, ingredients are still in place for thunderstorms to expand in coverage through the night and linger into Monday morning, some of which may be strong to severe. 60 mph winds and quarter size hail are the potential severe risks, with flooding also possible. 00Z HREF LPMM data continues to show potential for very localized amounts up to 3-6 inches. The greatest potential for convection is south and west of Springfield. For the rest of the today, look for highs ranging from the low 80s to low 90s, warmest west where heat index values near 100 are possible this afternoon. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 An upper level ridge will remain west of area this week. Highs will generally range from the mid/upper 80s across central Missouri to the low/middle 90s across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri each day this week into next weekend. The region will remain in northwest flow this this week. Ensemble data shows an upper level disturbance moving through the northwest flow bringing 20-40% chances for showers and storms Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 616 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Thunderstorms will continue to develop early this morning, impacting all TAF sites. Expect VFR conditions by this afternoon and persisting through the rest of the forecast period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Titus LONG TERM...Titus AVIATION...Titus  408 FXUS64 KTSA 241117 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 617 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 615 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Temperatures mostly above normal with continued periods of locally high heat stress to continue through the week. The possible exception being around active thunderstorm activity. - Limited risk of severe weather Sunday night into early Monday with damaging wind potential the primary hazard. - Areas of localized fire weather concerns will persist until widespread beneficial rainfall occurs. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The immediate near term concern is the likelihood of at least scattered shower and thunderstorm development after midnight, beginning initially across parts of northeast Oklahoma and eventually working south and eastward toward daybreak, all in response to an increasing low level jet. There have already been signs of the initial development late this evening on KINX, along with other echoes across northwest Arkansas that have bubbled much of the evening. The expectation is for the potential for severe weather, focused on a locally damaging wind threat, to be highest in far northeast Oklahoma into northwest and west central Arkansas. Locally heavy rain should be expected as well. The overall trend into the daylight hours should be for an eastward shift through mid to late morning, a notable lull early afternoon, with a low chance of additional development in southeast Oklahoma mid to late afternoon in association with another mid level speed max. In addition to the shower and thunderstorm potential through the day, a portion of the area will continue to battle heat stress concerns. A Heat Advisory will be issued for a part of east central and southeast Oklahoma roughly along and south of I-40 and along and west of the Indian Nations Turnpike. This area is less likely to have significant rainfall and convective debris during the day and therefore, continued triple digit temperatures. It is possible that if lesser thunderstorm development materializes tonight and into the morning that this advisory will need to be expanded northeastward on later shifts. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday evening, with a gradual decrease in the potential for further development for much of the night, continuing into the day Tuesday. Overall, warmer conditions areawide are expected Tuesday, with additional heat headlines likely. The brief largely dry period for much of Monday night and into Tuesday looks to end Tuesday night as a fairly potent mid level disturbance moves into the area, leading to the development of a thunderstorm complex that moves southward into parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Cooler low level temperatures look to move southward into the area on the heels of this disturbance for Wednesday, with roughly the northern half of the area seeing temperatures closer to normal. The more normal temperatures should hang around into Thursday as well. A change in the overall upper level pattern is expected by the weekend, with the high pressure center shifting eastward. This should bring a longer stretch of dry weather and a return to hot temperatures areawide, particularly by Sunday and next Monday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Ongoing scattered showers and thunderstorms will diminish by late morning. VFR conditions will prevail outside of any storms. Isolated storms may redevelop late this afternoon or evening, but the chances are too low to include in the TAF's at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 95 75 98 74 / 20 0 0 20 FSM 93 75 102 75 / 40 10 10 10 MLC 102 76 105 74 / 20 20 0 10 BVO 94 69 97 68 / 20 0 0 20 FYV 88 70 98 71 / 60 10 0 30 BYV 88 71 94 71 / 70 10 0 30 MKO 95 73 101 73 / 30 10 0 10 MIO 93 71 96 71 / 50 0 0 40 F10 100 74 102 73 / 20 10 0 10 HHW 103 77 103 76 / 20 20 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-065-066-071-073. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...05  409 FXUS66 KOTX 241117 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 417 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming and drying trend Monday and Tuesday - Minor to moderate heatrisk Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 90s. - Breezy winds Wednesday into Thursday with elevated fire weather conditions. && .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures warm Monday into Tuesday with afternoon highs in the 90s by Tuesday. The heat begins to break down Wednesday into Thursday with an increasing risk for breezy winds and mountain thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Wednesday: A ridge will build into the region along the Continental Divide while a trough digs in off the coast. A similar pattern will be setting up from this past weekend. The ridge will be in place for a couple of days leading to dry, warm pattern. Highs will climb back into the 90s. Moderate HeatRisk will return for most lowland locations on Tuesday and Wednesday. As the trough begins to press into the region, a weak band of instability will slide through the Lower Idaho Panhandle and bring a less than 10% chance for showers and isolated thunderstorm on Tuesday night. Late Wednesday and Thursday: The trough begin to push into the region on Wednesday and slowly track east. Ensembles have weak instability over the Cascades, northern mountains, and the Idaho Panhandle. Precipitable water amounts are 0.75-0.9 of an inch. Winds will increase through the Okanogan Valley and Waterville Plateau with gusts in the 20-30 mph range. Wednesday highs will be in the 90s before dropping into the 80s on Thursday. Friday through Sunday: The trough will struggle to displace the ridge over Central US. Ensembles have the trough pattern stalled over the region through the weekend. Drier air will push into the region as precipitable water values drop to around half an inch. While meaningful amount of rain is not expected, the trough will drop highs back into the upper 70s and 80s through the end of the week. /JDC && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFs: High pressure will deliver light winds, and mostly clear skies through 12z Tuesday. Smoke production from Little Giant and Sisi Fires in Chelan county will continue which may result in some restrictions to visibility at times for KEAT/KMWH. However latest HRRR smoke model keep levels on the lighter side for these two sites with VFR conditions favored. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions outside of visibility restrictions near wildfire sources in Chelan county. High confidence in VFR conditions through 12z Tue for KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KLWS and moderate confidence in VFR conditions for KEAT/KMWH. JW ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 53 86 55 95 59 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Coeur d'Alene 53 86 55 95 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Pullman 46 86 49 94 53 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Lewiston 56 91 60 99 65 96 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Colville 43 85 45 92 49 93 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Sandpoint 46 82 50 91 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 Kellogg 51 84 53 92 57 92 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 Moses Lake 54 89 56 95 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 61 88 64 94 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 53 87 58 94 61 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alertuntil further notice for Central Chelan County- Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin- Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County. ID...None. && $$  460 FXUS63 KUNR 241119 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 519 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated severe thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon and evening, especially from the Black Hills east and south. - Upper ridge will dominate the weather with subtle disturbances through next week with temperatures about 4-8F above normal && .UPDATE... Issued at 1050 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Another round of at least isolated thunderstorms is expected to initiate off the Black Hills as early as 19z/1pm Monday afternoon, with the I-90 corridor and points south to the Nebraska border then favored through the evening as cells push southeast. Forecast soundings suggest this corridor will support the best combination of moisture, instability, and shear, with SBCAPE values potentially over 2,500 J/kg and convective temperatures likely to be reached to break the cap. Overall shear will be lower than today, and a mix of pulse, multicell, and transient supercell structures are possible. PoPs have been massaged to support this scenario based on the latest round of CAMs. Across most of the rest of the CWA, mostly dry and breezy conditions are expected. Fire weather conditions will be a touch elevated due to the heat and dry/breezy conditions, but wind gust and RH values are not expected to reach Red Flag criteria. && .DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Saturday) Issued at 1043 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 16z surface analysis had frontal boundary from eastern MT to eastern CO and a trough from eastern CO into northeastern NE. Water vapour loop had upper ridge over the southwest CONUS with a shortwave over north-central WY. Overnight MCS about to fully exit the CWA with leftover low stratus burning off per 0.5km 1-minute visible imagery. Main concern this forecast will be effect of north-central WY shortwave. This afternoon/tonight, shortwave moves into the Dakotas with slight increase in mid-level flow resulting in 30-45kt effective bulk shear later this afternoon. Td/s in the 60s will be sustained per breezy southeast winds ahead of frontal boundary. Band of 2-3KJ/kg MLCAPE forecast this afternoon over far western SD with minimum cap. Convective initiation (CI) will likely be over the Black Hills around 20z with supercells moving south/southeast at 10-20kts per Bunkers storm motion prognostications. Another area of strong/severe CI may develop over northwestern SD along the frontal boundary/trough interaction late this afternoon. CAMs handle this scenario in different fashion with some emphasizing MLCIN east of the Black Hills with some members not so much. Other strong/isolated severe convection may occur over the rest of the CWA. Sufficient buoyancy/bulk shear for marginal/slight (1-2 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms. Large hail/damaging wind the main threats with CIG1 magnitudes over western SD. Temperatures will be a bit below guidance this afternoon per low level moisture/dissipating stratus. Monday, diurnally driven convection possible in the afternoon/evening, but the upper support less certain compared to today. Temperatures will be near guidance. The rest of the forecast will be dominated by the upper ridge over the southwest CONUS. Ridge amplification into the northern Plains for the second half of the week suggests somewhat quieter and drier weather. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Tuesday Morning) Issued At 518 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Thunderstorms are expected to form after 20z across the Black Hills, with additional development across NE WY and the west- southwestern SD plains through the afternoon and evening. Transient MVFR/IFR conditions are expected in any storms, although coverage of storms will be spotty. Outside of storms, VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ UPDATE...KSmith DISCUSSION...Helgeson AVIATION...SE  546 FXUS64 KCRP 241120 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 620 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 614 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Major to Extreme risk of heat-related impacts continue into next week with peak afternoon heat indices nearing or reaching 110 - Fire Danger Statement in effect over most of South Texas from noon to 9 PM. - Daily elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 127 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 I know you wish you could read something new and interesting, and I know I wish I could write something new and interesting, but I want to be honest: nothing has really changed. High pressure remains centered near the Four Corners region, meandering south-southeast through the week, keeping us hot and dry through the end of the week. There is a very low chance of some seabreeze convection in the afternoons, but most locations will not be lucky enough to see this. Guidance is still hinting at the potential for a disturbance to sneak around the eastern periphery of the ridge around the Friday timeframe. This could lead to some isolated showers and slightly cooler temperatures but, again, this is still pretty far out so we are not getting our hopes up. It is going to continue to be miserably hot for this upcoming week with high temperatures in the 90s along the coast to around 105 inland. Expect we will continue with below normal moisture today and tomorrow which will help keep heat index values below 110 for most of South Texas. Because of this, there is not a Heat Advisory currently issued for today, but we may need to issue a short-fused advisory this afternoon. Moisture begins a gradual return Wednesday through the end of the week, resulting in higher heat index values once again. Heat Advisories will likely be needed Wednesday through the end of the week. Regardless of the slightly lower heat index values, we urge you all to be extremely cautious if you are outside. Cumulative heat stress can lead to increased chances for heat exhaustion or heat stroke. Remember to take breaks in the shade or air conditioning, drink water/electrolytes, and pace yourself if working outside. Don't leave children or pets in your vehicle, even for short periods of time. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Brief MVFR conditions across VCT and ALI this morning are expected to lift to VFR by 13-15Z. These conditions are expected to redevelop overnight, mainly after 08Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist across S TX through the TAF cycle. S-SE sustained winds will generally be less than 15 knots with occasional gusts to around 20 knots this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 127 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Light to moderate (BF 2-4) onshore breezes will continue through the period, with occasional fresh (BF 5) breezes possible during the late afternoon/evening hours, especially south of Port Aransas. Seas are expected to remain around 2-3 feet. Rain chances will remain near zero through the middle of the week. Mariners should take steps to prevent heat illness as hot temperatures continue. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 127 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ERC values have increased across the Brush Country to the 90-96th percentile, with most of the rest of the area in the 70-89th percentile. Humidity values will continue to be low, with minimum RH values below 34% over the Coastal Plains and Brush Country. Winds will remain fairly light, but given the hot temperatures, low relative humidity, and high ERC values, have issued a Fire Danger Statement for most of the area through this evening. Should winds increase more than anticipated, a few locations could experience critical fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 97 77 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 103 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 105 78 105 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 102 73 102 74 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 92 81 92 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 105 76 105 76 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 100 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 91 80 90 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LS/77 AVIATION...TE/81  560 FXUS66 KSGX 241120 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 420 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Monsoonal moisture will maintain a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms for the mountains and deserts through Tuesday. A warming trend will continue through Thursday with widespread major to extreme HeatRisk for the lower deserts, valleys, and inland Orange County. Widespread moderate or greater HeatRisk except for mountain elevations above 7000 feet is expected to continue through next Saturday. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)... There will be a warming trend through Thursday with high temperatures for today around 5 degrees above average for the mountains and deserts and 5 to 10 degrees above average for the coast and valleys. High temperatures for today will range from around 80 near the coast to the upper 90s to 106 for the Inland Empire with the lower deserts around 110. Precipitable water values will peak today and Tuesday, then decrease through next weekend. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon for the mountains and deserts. && .LONG TERM (Thursday through Sunday)... The warming trend will continue through Thursday with high temperatures on Thursday around 10 degrees above average for the mountains and deserts to 10 to 15 degrees above average for the coast and valleys. High temperatures on Thursday will range from the 80s near the coast to 105 to 110 for the Inland Empire with 112 to 116 for the lower deserts. Low temperatures on Thursday will be as much as 10 to 15 degrees above average for the mountains and inland valleys. Low temperatures for the coast and valleys will be mostly in the 70s. There could be a large number of records for warmest low temperatures tied or broken on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will gradually cool for Friday through Sunday with high temperatures for Sunday around 5 degrees above average. High temperatures on Sunday will range from around 80 near the coast to the mid 90s to 103 for the Inland Empire with 108 to 112 for the lower deserts. The HeatRisk is expected to peak on Thursday with major to extreme HeatRisk for the lower deserts, valleys, inland Orange County, and the Santa Ana Mountains with moderate to major HeatRisk elsewhere expected for the mountains above 7000 feet. && .AVIATION... 241130Z...Coast...Patchy low clouds based around 300-800 feet MSL with vis reduced 0-5SM will continue temporarily through 16Z. Even fewer and patchier low clouds expected overnight into Tuesday. Mountains/Deserts...Building cumulus based around 9000 feet MSL leading to CB clouds with tops to 45000 feet and SCT TSRA over mountains and locally into adjacent deserts 19-02Z. Any TS could produce gusty, erratic winds. Otherwise...SCT to locally BKN clouds AOA 20000 feet MSL becoming mostly clear after 03Z. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday. && .BEACHES... A 4-5 foot southerly swell (from 170 degrees) at 13-15 seconds will move into the area Wednesday and Thursday, leading to elevated surf for the south facing beaches of northern San Diego County and Orange County. Breaking waves of 4 to 6 feet expected, sets up to 8 feet possible at beaches that face due south. Surf gradually subsides on Friday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM PDT Friday for OrangeCounty Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas. Heat Advisory until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for Orange County Inland Areas-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM PDT Friday for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Orange County Inland Areas-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire- San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Friday for Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for Coachella Valley- San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Martin AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM  665 FXUS65 KPUB 241122 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 522 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scatted to numerous showers and storms expected again this afternoon and evening, with flash flood risk continuing for the Aspen Acres burn scar. - Showers and storms widespread again Tuesday and Wednesday, with an uptick in severe storm chances on the plains both days. Still a heavy rain rain/flood risk as well. - Gradual downturn in thunderstorm chances for the end of the week into the weekend, though threat of storms never completely goes away, with at least isolated activity over the mountains possible each day. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1231 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Currently, convection was exiting the region early this morning, with last few showers drifting into Kansas shortly after midnight. Satellite/radar trends plus CAMs all suggest convection is done for the night, and will go with a dry forecast for all locations into Monday morning. Upper high remains over NM today, with little change in the pattern over Colorado. and expect another round of afternoon/evening convection moving generally eastward through the area. Heavy rain again the main threat, and will continue the flash flood watch for the Aspen Acres scar, as storm environment is similar to the fast few days. Severe threat today looks limited by weak wind shear, best chance may be over Kiowa County where low/mid level winds are a tad higher, though any stronger storms will have at least a low end gusty wet microburst threat. Max temps look similar to yesterday as mid-level heights show little change. On Tuesday, weak cold front drops south through the plains late in the day, bringing increased forcing for storms as low level winds, improving effective shear along and east of I-25. Surface dewpoints come up as well, leading to CAPE in the 1k-2k J/KG range east of the Interstate. SWODY2 marginal risk on the eastern plains looks good for now, any higher risk will depend on where low level boundary and subsequent pooling of higher instability end up, as 00z models point more toward KS than ern CO for the strongest storms. Farther west, usual crop of afternoon/evening storms will roll east off the mountains, and will again need to watch for heavy rain over the Aspen Acres burn scar, especially late day as front and outflow potentially push moisture back toward the high terrain. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1231 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Expect a slightly stronger westward push of moisture Tue night into Wed behind departing central plains convection, with deeper moisture and instability along and east of the mountains during the day, though potential for early morning stratus could hamper instability initially. Overall, expect Wed to be perhaps the most convectively active day of the week, with heavy rain threat over much of the region and at least a low end severe threat along and east of I-25. Cooler temps expected Wed with clouds and moisture, and maxes will end up near/below seasonal averages for a change at many locations. Upper ridge drifts west and expands northward for the end of the week, before potentially flattening and drifting back eastward early next week. Overall, expect a slow drying/warming trend from Thu into the weekend, though enough recycled moisture will be around for daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms, especially over the mountains. Plains could see still see some storms Thu/Fri, before most activity retreats into the higher terrain over the weekend. Max temps will drift upward through the period, with 80s/90s widespread and even a few 100 degf readings returning to the plains. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 455 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Another round of thunderstorms will develop over the mountains around 18-19Z and drift off into the adjacent valleys and plains through the afternoon and evening. All three terminals could see -TSRA on site after 22-23z through 01-02z. VFR cigs/vis in -TSRA with gusty outflow winds up to 40 kts will be possible. Vis could briefly drop into the MVFR category if a stronger storm impacts the terminals. Otherwise, expect diurnally driven winds through mid afternoon to become dominated by thunderstorm outflows through the early evening. Winds will become light and diurnally drive again after 05-06z. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from 3 PM MDT this afternoon through this evening for COZ079-080-086. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...PETERSEN AVIATION...KT  703 FXUS65 KPUB 241123 CCA AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Pueblo CO 523 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scatted to numerous showers and storms expected again this afternoon and evening, with flash flood risk continuing for the Aspen Acres burn scar. - Showers and storms widespread again Tuesday and Wednesday, with an uptick in severe storm chances on the plains both days. Still a heavy rain rain/flood risk as well. - Gradual downturn in thunderstorm chances for the end of the week into the weekend, though threat of storms never completely goes away, with at least isolated activity over the mountains possible each day. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1231 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Currently, convection was exiting the region early this morning, with last few showers drifting into Kansas shortly after midnight. Satellite/radar trends plus CAMs all suggest convection is done for the night, and will go with a dry forecast for all locations into Monday morning. Upper high remains over NM today, with little change in the pattern over Colorado. and expect another round of afternoon/evening convection moving generally eastward through the area. Heavy rain again the main threat, and will continue the flash flood watch for the Aspen Acres scar, as storm environment is similar to the fast few days. Severe threat today looks limited by weak wind shear, best chance may be over Kiowa County where low/mid level winds are a tad higher, though any stronger storms will have at least a low end gusty wet microburst threat. Max temps look similar to yesterday as mid-level heights show little change. On Tuesday, weak cold front drops south through the plains late in the day, bringing increased forcing for storms as low level winds, improving effective shear along and east of I-25. Surface dewpoints come up as well, leading to CAPE in the 1k-2k J/KG range east of the Interstate. SWODY2 marginal risk on the eastern plains looks good for now, any higher risk will depend on where low level boundary and subsequent pooling of higher instability end up, as 00z models point more toward KS than ern CO for the strongest storms. Farther west, usual crop of afternoon/evening storms will roll east off the mountains, and will again need to watch for heavy rain over the Aspen Acres burn scar, especially late day as front and outflow potentially push moisture back toward the high terrain. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1231 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Expect a slightly stronger westward push of moisture Tue night into Wed behind departing central plains convection, with deeper moisture and instability along and east of the mountains during the day, though potential for early morning stratus could hamper instability initially. Overall, expect Wed to be perhaps the most convectively active day of the week, with heavy rain threat over much of the region and at least a low end severe threat along and east of I-25. Cooler temps expected Wed with clouds and moisture, and maxes will end up near/below seasonal averages for a change at many locations. Upper ridge drifts west and expands northward for the end of the week, before potentially flattening and drifting back eastward early next week. Overall, expect a slow drying/warming trend from Thu into the weekend, though enough recycled moisture will be around for daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms, especially over the mountains. Plains could see still see some storms Thu/Fri, before most activity retreats into the higher terrain over the weekend. Max temps will drift upward through the period, with 80s/90s widespread and even a few 100 degf readings returning to the plains. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 523 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Another round of thunderstorms will develop over the mountains around 18-19Z and drift off into the adjacent valleys and plains through the afternoon and evening. All three terminals could see -TSRA on site after 22-23z through 01-02z. VFR cigs/vis in -TSRA with gusty outflow winds up to 40 kts will be possible. Vis could briefly drop into the MVFR category if a stronger storm impacts the terminals. Otherwise, expect diurnally driven winds through mid afternoon to become dominated by thunderstorm outflows through the early evening. Winds will become light and diurnally drive again after 05-06z. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from 3 PM MDT this afternoon through this evening for COZ079-080-086. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...PETERSEN AVIATION...KT  738 FXUS63 KPAH 241123 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 623 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The week will begin on a dry note with clear to partly cloudy skies, as high pressure continues to remain overhead. - The next chances for showers and thunderstorms across the entire region is forecast Wednesday into Wednesday night. - Temperatures will continue to climb through the week eventually reaching the low 90s by this weekend as southerly winds return, along with increasing humidity levels beginning Wednesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Updated Aviation Discussion for the 12z TAF Issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 216 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 The region continues to sit between the upper level ridge over the southwest CONUS and the trough over the NE CONUS with surface high pressure overhead. Recent model guidance has shifted the upper level ridge west, and as a result, shifted the shortwaves and small chance for showers expected today and Tuesday west of SEMO. Therefore, dry conditions are forecast with clear to partly cloudy skies across the region Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s. Wednesday into Thursday morning, small chances (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms exist across the entire region as another trough and associated cold front is expected to move through. However, forecast confidence in these showers are low due to the lack of agreement across mid and long range models. Beginning Wednesday with this system, higher dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s will return resulting in higher humidity. High temperatures will continue climb as the week progresses. Current guidance suggests that by the weekend we could see highs back into the low 90s, as southerly winds return. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Fog is expected to continue for the next hour for MVN but is expected to clear afterward with visibilty clearing. VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the day with few to scattered high clouds with low northeasterly winds. There is again the potential for some fog across MVN, CGI, and PAH Tuesday morning but confidence is low so it has been left out for now. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...AZ/DWS DISCUSSION...AZ AVIATION...AZ  757 FXUS64 KBMX 241124 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 624 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 624 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026 - Heat: Minor to moderate heat risk will continue through this week. Heat indices are forecast to remain below 105 degrees. - Storms: There is level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across the southern portions of Alabama for Monday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1204 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026 The radar is clear across Central Alabama late this evening with only a few storms near the Gulf Coast. Our surface boundary of late has progressed today to the southern third of Alabama and has stalled. It is expected to linger in this area through the short term through early Tuesday. In the upper levels, a low is present over Ontario and Quebec and southward into the Great Lakes and much of Eastern Conus. At the same time, there is also a large ridge that extends from Arizona to Texas. This leaves Central Alabama in a northwest flow regime. Look for isolated to scattered waves of convection at times through Monday, generally in the southern third of Central Alabama with heating, more so toward the coast. On Tuesday, the surface boundary is expected to meander back northward before fizzling out on Wednesday. However, the northwest flow will assist in another front making it into the area in the Thursday/Friday time frame. This will keep unsettled conditions along with scattered slightly higher storm chances in through the latter part of the forecast as moisture increases. Guidance with this late week front has it likely stalling across Central Alabama as well next weekend. Through much of the 7 day forecast, a few upper lows rotate through the current trough area over Eastern Canada and the Great Lakes with varying degrees of southward progression into Eastern Conus, but overall some degree of troughing remains through the end of this week. Our Southwest US ridge remains as well until Friday. The difference from yesterday's guidance is that we could see an expansion of the ridge eastward across the Southern US this weekend. This will mean higher pops Wednesday into Friday, but by next weekend we could see a warming trend if the ridge expands. 08 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026 Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected in greater coverage this afternoon. Low confidence in timing/coverage supports only a PROB30 group at MGM through 25/01z for TSRA. Otherwise, VFR conditions are set to prevail for the rest of this TAF period. Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage. /44/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air may be slow to vacate the area with one more day possible for lower minimum relative humidity values (35 to 45%) for some locations on Monday. However, wind speeds are expected to remain light, which should negate any significant fire weather concerns. Moisture gradually begins as we head into midweek. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 92 66 93 67 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 91 66 91 67 / 10 0 0 10 Birmingham 92 70 93 71 / 10 10 10 10 Tuscaloosa 95 72 95 72 / 20 10 10 10 Calera 92 70 93 70 / 10 10 10 10 Auburn 90 71 90 71 / 20 20 10 10 Montgomery 95 72 94 71 / 30 20 20 10 Troy 94 70 93 70 / 30 20 30 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION.../44/  764 FXUS64 KJAN 241125 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 625 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous heat stress is expected across southern portions of the area today. - Isolated to scattered severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts remain possible across southern portions of the area today. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Today and tonight... A sinking surface boundary sliding southeast paired with the right entrance region an upper jet streak/speed max will contribute to an early morning round of elevated convection this morning across portions of the Delta and central MS. With this activity, temperatures/heat indices will be cooler today than we've seen recently with maximum values near 105 mostly near and south of the I-20 corridor. A "Limited" (1/4) risk for heat stress remains depicted in these areas. Mostly to the south of this early activity, afternoon heating could allow for a rejuvenation of storm activity and these diurnally stronger storms warrant continuation of a "Slight" (2/5) risk for severe weather with the primary risk expected to be a risk for damaging wind gusts. Tuesday into the weekend... A preciously advertised risk for strong to severe storms on Tuesday has been withdrawn on this forecast cycle. Recent trends suggest early morning convective activity could result in a somewhat more thermodynamically stable environment during the afternoon and evening tomorrow. Through the week, deep layer upper ridging will initially retrograde toward the Southwest as upper troughing generally moves further northeast and weaker away from the area. This results in upper heights remaining generally unchanged but with a somewhat reduced gradient. This could mean somewhat of a reduction in the near daily risk of mostly diurnally driven strong to severe storms, but embedded disturbances within the generally northwest flow aloft will mean some day-to-day variation could still bring the threat to some portions of the area each day. This will be monitored through the next week and targeted, mostly lower-end severe weather outlooks for some risk of damaging winds could be introduced when warranted. With a reduction in storm coverage likely and a general return to weak, southerly boundary layer flow as opposed to the more recent northerlies, heat and humidity will be on the rebound through the week. Heat headlines and advisories will likely be needed as the week progress. /SW/86/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 All TAF sites are VFR tonight and this will continue through the morning hours. Scattered to numerous showers/storms will develop this afternoon and this will bring the potential for MVFR/IFR conditions to affected sites. The winds will mainly be light and variable outside of any thunderstorm activity./15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 91 72 92 72 / 70 30 40 10 Meridian 93 72 93 72 / 50 10 20 20 Vicksburg 90 72 92 73 / 70 20 40 20 Hattiesburg 95 73 92 72 / 80 20 40 10 Natchez 95 74 93 73 / 60 10 50 0 Greenville 88 72 94 73 / 80 30 40 30 Greenwood 89 71 92 72 / 50 20 40 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ /15  765 FXUS65 KBOU 241125 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 525 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms through Thursday. A few storms could become severe, particularly for the eastern plains. - Slightly cooler with near normal temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday. - Gradual drying and hotter temperatures by the end of the week and through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/... Issued at 305 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Current surface observations show breezy winds (30-40 mph) across the Front Range mountains due to increased flow aloft. Expect breezy winds to continue throughout the morning, particularly off the Cheyenne Ridge. With a slight decrease in moisture due to the west/northwest flow aloft, shower and thunderstorm coverage may be more limited today. However, CAMs still favor convection initiating around 1/2 PM across the Front Range mountains, and tracking east onto the I-25 Corridor and adjacent plains. Model Skew-T soundings favor the inverted-v profile with DCAPE values reaching up to 1200- 1400 J/kg. This means any high-based storm that does develop is capable of producing strong outflow winds. Most gusts should stay below severe limits (40-55 mph), but can't rule out a few 60-65 mph gusts. In addition, there is a conditional severe weather threat for the far northeastern plains later in the afternoon/evening. CAMs favor thunderstorms to develop along a dryline in the wake of a surface trough. Models continue to disagree where the dryline sets up, but if it can recede into the far northeastern plains, a few supercells could impact that area. With better shear/instability profiles, hail and strong winds will be the main threats. On Tuesday, a weak cold front will move through the area, which will bring more seasonable temperatures. Forecasted highs should get up to the high 80s across the plains. Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop in the afternoon. The severe threat does not look that impressive, as overall instability looks limited compared to farther east in Nebraska and Kansas. However, these high-based storms still could produce strong outflow winds, as DCAPE values should get up to 1200-1300 J/kg. The "cooler" temperatures should last through Wednesday, with highs reaching up to the mid-to-high 80s across the plains. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected again for the high terrain and plains. Modeled soundings show more favorable shear profiles, which would support a few strong/severe storms for the I-25 Corridor and adjacent plains. For the later half of the week, ensemble guidance favors heat rebuilding over the area, with temperatures reaching back up the mid- 90s by Friday and Saturday. The upper level ridge shoddily slide back west, which will start cutting off our moisture coming into the region. However, there should still be enough moisture to support isolated-to-scattered afternoon thunderstorms. By the end of the weekend, guidance does hint at the upper level ridge weakening and shifting east due to a shortwave trough entering the Pacific northwest. With west/southwest flow aloft, moisture should begin filtering in again, with increase in shower and thunderstorm activity towards the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday/... Issued at 518 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds are currently from drainage to a light westerly flow (VRB at APA). These light winds, generally under 8-10 kts, will gradually turn to the northeast by the early afternoon. CAMs are still in agreement of convection initiating off the high terrain by around 19Z before spilling onto the plains, affecting BJC by 20Z and DEN/APA by 21Z. Gusty outflows of 30-40 kts is possible with any storm that develops. There is still hints of showers lingering in the evening hours (between 00Z and 03Z) so have kept the PROB30 in the TAF. There is some uncertainty with wind direction behind the storms this evening. For now, chose what most guidance had (southwest) to account for outflow winds from any outflow from the west, with drainage taking over after. However, winds could be from the southeast instead. Overnight, there could be low clouds affecting DEN, between 09Z and 16Z. However, due to low confidence and lack of model agreement, have kept it out of the TAF for now. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MAI AVIATION...MAI  778 FXUS65 KPIH 241125 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 525 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Southern two-thirds of forecast area under marginal forecast for severe thunderstorms today and tonight. - Thunderstorms continue with less coverage today compared to yesterday. Slight chance of thunderstorms each day through Sunday. - Weak warming trend through Thursday, then a cooling trend to Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Today through Wed night...The upper level ridge centered over the desert southwest will strengthen over the next couple of days. This will put temperatures on a very weak warming trend, but it will not stop moist and unstable air rotating through the upper level southwest flow into southern Idaho. SPC has once again put the southern 2/3 of the forecast area in an area of marginal severe thunderstorm threat. Fortunately, this marginal threat is only expected to last through this evening. Weaker thunderstorms with lessening threat continues Tue through Thu, then beyond this the threat falls off even more. Wind outside of thunderstorms should return to being light. Thu through Sun...As mentioned above, the trend is for less and less thunderstorm activity, barely rating mentioning during this period. However, on Thu this upper level ridge breaks down as the coastal upper level low pushes onshore in southern Canada. This movement causes the airflow to be more westerly and drier, and the incoming low increases the gradient aloft as it makes its closest approach on Thu, Fri, and Sat afternoons, when the stronger wind gets a chance to mix down to the surface. The approach of this low also produces a cooling trend that starts Thu afternoon to the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 520 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Another round of afternoon and evening TSRA. Expecting mostly just TS, so only KBYI looks like VSBY may be worse in the TSRA. Any CIGs outside of TSRA should be above FL100; with soundings having the inverted V look this afternoon and evening. SPC has put KBYI, KPIH, KIDA, and KDIJ in an area of marginal risk of severe TSRA. KSUN is right on the border. So have upped some of the TSRA gusts to G45KT. Start and stop times are based on latest available hourly guidance. Wind continues light outside TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 140 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Upper level high pressure has built back in, but moist and unstable air from the south continues to flow in. Except for the Salmon-Challis NF and northern end of the Eastern Idaho Dispatch center has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms. Thunderstorms should be mainly dry, and are also becoming more isolated than scattered. Thus through Wed expect warming and drying, with continued poor recovery in the central Idaho mountains especially. Wind will calm down from the Sunday wind event, and stay below critical thresholds through Wed. A low passing to the north, centered in southern Canada, will kick up the wind on Thu, Fri, and Sat afternoons. It also brings in cooler air, so what exactly happens to the humidity readings is up in the air, but there could be critical fire weather conditions for this period. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Messick AVIATION...Messick FIRE WEATHER...Messick  789 FXUS66 KPQR 241125 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 425 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Upper level ridging and low-level offshore flow develops today, continuing into Tuesday, bringing warmer and sunnier conditions with high temperatures in the lower 90s today and upper 80s Tuesday across the interior lowlands. Wildfire smoke will also begin to increase over the Columbia River Gorge, Upper Hood River Valley, and the greater Portland/Vancouver metro area this morning and then linger through Tuesday; however smoke is not expected to be dense for most locations. Onshore flow arrives by Wednesday and continues thereafter, which will clear any lingering smoke out of the area and bring cooler, more seasonable temperatures through the end of the week and into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Tuesday Night...A building upper level ridge will bring a warm start to the work week as a thermal trough develops over the area today. Offshore flow is will develop on the western slopes of the Cascades and Coast range this afternoon, helping support the warmer temperatures. Winds are not expected to be particularly strong but could be gusty in the western Columbia River Gorge with gusts of 25-35 mph possible late this morning through the afternoon. 850 mb temperatures are expected to rise to between 18-22 C supporting a noticeable jump in high temperatures from yesterday. 10th-90th percentiles for highs show a small range in the low to mid 90s for interior lowlands and upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. Offshore winds will also bring some noticeable wildfire smoke to portions of the central and northern Willamette Valley, the Portland metro and the western Columbia River Gorge. Depending on how thick this smoke is, it could impact afternoon highs by knocking them down a degree or two. Afternoon sea breezes return light onshore flow along the coast and western portions of the coast range. A weak passing disturbance may briefly decrease offshore winds along the western slopes of the Cascades during the late afternoon and evening hours but offshore flow returns late in the evening into the overnight hours. Overnight temperatures in the Portland metro and Cascade Valleys and Foothills will be rather mild in the low to mid 60s while temps drop into the mid 50s elsewhere. Troughing over the Gulf of Alaska is expected to slowly drift southeast while a shortwave over the northeast Pacific gets swung toward the PacNW early Tuesday. This will bring slightly lower heights aloft and a decrease in 850 mb temperatures to around 16-18 C but will still support high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s across the interior lowlands and 60s along the coast. Winds will also shift onshore across the entire area. By Tuesday evening, surface high pressure building along the coast will bring a strong marine push of westerly winds. Any lingering wildfire smoke should shift back east of the Cascades by Wednesday. -19 .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Confidence remains high heading into the latter half of the week and into the weekend. Cluster analysis is heavily favoring troughing over the PacNW and western Canada with several embedded impulses reinforcing this pattern for several days. This will bring a significant downward trend in temperatures starting Wednesday with highs close to average then gradually dropping into the uppers 70s Thursday and Friday and possibly the mid 70s by Saturday. Precipitation signals remain weak but the best chance for light rain looks to be Saturday, though there is significant model spread this far out. Could see some light drizzle associated with weak frontal passages Thursday morning and a better chance Saturday. -19 && .AVIATION...12Z TAFs...North winds have kept marine stratus just off the coast but have started to see some lower clouds develop right along the strip. This is supporting LIFR conditions at KAST and MVFR conditions at KONP. Guidance is struggling with this set-up with just slight changes in the wind direction likely supporting drastic changes in CIGs and therefore flight level along the coast. Could see intermittent CIG restrictions through 16z along the coast. Inland conditions likely remain VFR though guidance does suggest some stratus developing in the eastern Willamette Valley and Portland metro. Could see some brief CIG impacts at KSLE, KEUG, KTTD and maybe KPDX between through 16-18z. North/northeast winds through the TAF period. Expect breezy winds gusting around of 20 kt at KONP. Around 18-20Z, easterly winds around 8-11 kt are expected to develop at KTTD and KPDX as offshore winds develop through the Columbia River Gorge. The north/northeast winds will also push some wildfire smoke/haze into the Willamette Valley. Smoke/haze will have the potential reduce vertical and slantwise visibilities at times. In addition, temperatures are expected to warm into the lower 90s this afternoon at the inland TAF sites, so be aware of high density altitude which may reduce aircraft performance. KPDX AND APPROACHES...North/northeast winds through the TAF period with more easterly winds developing around 18-20Z. Expect 8-11 kt to develop near and east of the terminal as easterly winds develop through the Columbia River Gorge. Smoke/haze will have the potential reduce vertical and slantwise visibilities at times. In addition, temperatures are expected to warm into the lower 90s this afternoon at the inland TAF sites, so be aware of high density altitude which may reduce aircraft performance. -19/42 && .MARINE...Gusty northerly winds persist through the afternoon across all waters with gusts up to 25 kt expected. Winds decrease from from south to north this evening. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) from Florence to Cape Falcon will drop off first at 5 PM and the SCA for waters north of Cape Falcon to Cape Shoalwater and the Columbia River Bar are expected to end at 8 PM as winds decrease. A southerly wind reversal arrives early Tuesday morning over the inner waters with gusts up to 15-20 kt expected by Tuesday afternoon over the northern inner waters. This will also bring increasing chances for marine fog beginning early Tuesday morning, especially over the inner waters. Visibilities may fall below 1 SM at times as the southerly winds develop and upwelling occurs. Aside from the increasing winds and potential marine fog, significant wave heights look to remain relatively low at around 3 to 5 ft through Friday. -19/23 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ251- 271. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ252- 253-272-273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  818 FXUS61 KCAR 241126 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 726 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - 7:25AM...Updated aviation discussion for today with 12z TAF issuance. - 5:51AM UPDATE...Fog is mixing and lifting out in many locations to just low ceilings. Have opted to cancel the Dense Fog Advisory except in Central & Coastal Washington county. It will remain there till 9AM EDT. Any remaining fog is mainly patchy in nature and therefore the advisory was cancelled in those spots. Will handle that concern with an SPS. - Increased precip/thunder chances for North Woods Monday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Areas of dense fog into the morning, and possibly again Monday night. Fog will impact travel conditions. 2) Chance of showers through Monday afternoon, with possibly some thunderstorms in Northern Maine Monday afternoon. 3) Chance of showers and thunderstorms north of Bangor Tuesday and mainly across northern Aroostook Wednesday. 4) Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening, some of which may be on the locally strong side with gusty winds and small hail. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Areas of dense fog into the morning, and possibly again Monday night. Fog will impact travel conditions. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Fog is the main concern. Areas of fog and low clouds are moving through the area, especially along the coast. The best chance of the dense fog is near the Downeast coast, but can't rule out significant fog further inland too. The fog should generally dissipate during the day Monday, but fog appears likely again Monday night. There may be a slightly later onset to the fog in the evening Monday, but still think the fog could be locally dense by later Monday night. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 9 AM Monday for Southern and Central Washington as well as coastal Hancock counties. KEY MESSAGE 2...Chance of showers through Monday afternoon, with possibly some thunderstorms in Northern Maine Monday afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Areas of drizzle moving from south to north along with the fog and low clouds overnight. Some drying expected into Monday morning, but with a bit of clearing, expect enough instability for showers and storms to fire off by about midday in north and west areas. Scattered showers/storms are expected, with the best chance being inland away from the more stable marine layer. That said, even in the wetter north, only going with a 40-60 percent chance of showers/storms, best chance in the western North Woods along the Quebec border. Monday will not be a rainout by any means. Cannot rule out a couple of the storms being on the stronger side with gusty winds, and there is some uncertainty how many storms can fire in the first place. Bangor and Downeast should remain dry, save for a shower or two. KEY MESSAGE 3...Chance of showers and thunderstorms north of Bangor Tuesday and mainly across northern Aroostook Wednesday. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... The axis of an upper level closed low that is gradually weakening as it passes to the north, then northeast Tuesday- Wednesday, should bring with it sufficient instability in the low-mid levels with its associated cold-pool aloft, that it should produce scattered showers in areas north of Bangor on Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon, low to mid level lapse rates should be around 8C/km, with a few hundred J/kg of CAPE and around 35-45 kt of bulk shear. This should produce some strong storms across the region north of Bangor. Wet bulb zero heights are around 7500-8500 ft away from the coast so the greatest risk would be small hail. On Wednesday, as the upper low weakens and retreats to the northeast, the threat will be limited to the North, with low level lapse rates around 7.5-8 C/km, around 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE and around 20-30 kt of shear. Once again strong storms are possible with mainly isolated storms across northern Aroostook. The wetbulb zero height is a little higher at 8500-9000 J/kg, but still low enough to support hail. With the stronger CAPE, the main threat is both strong winds and small hail in the strongest convection across the North on Wednesday. KEY MESSAGE 4...Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening, some of which may be on the locally strong side with gusty winds and small hail. KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION... A cold front crosses the area Friday afternoon and evening on the leading edge of a full latitude trough pushing into the region, with the added support of a northern stream shortwave pushing through the trough around that time. With the potential for 500-1500 J/kg of CAPE and 25-35KT of bulk shear, there is a risk of some locally strong thunderstorms ahead of the front, with the main threat strong gusty winds. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Today...From HUL north, MVFR/low VFR early then all VFR by midday. For BHB/BGR, IFR/LIFR early trending toward VFR around 16-18z. VCSH/-SHRA mainly for afternoon at northern terms. Low confidence -SHRA at BGR. PROB30 for northern terms (FVE,CAR,PQI and HUL) for -TSRA this afternoon. S winds 5-10kt with gusts up to 15kt. Tonight...VFR becoming MVFR/IFR cigs with BR/FG developing and possible LIFR/VLIFR vsby. Winds light and variable. Tuesday...Chance of IFR/LIFR early Tuesday AM at all terms in low cigs and/or FG. VFR mid morning into the afternoon. MVFR or lower possible in any stronger convection north of KBGR in the afternoon. SW winds 5-10kt, gusty winds in any storms possible. Tuesday night...VFR. Light and variable winds. Wednesday...VFR. Possible MVFR vsby due to -SHRA in the afternoon at KFVE/KCAR/KPQI. Wednesday night...VFR. Light and variable winds. Thursday...VFR. S winds 5-15kt with gusts up to 25kt. LLWS possible late afternoon. Thursday Night...VFR becoming MVFR/IFR with -SHRA developing. S winds 5-15kt. LLWS possible. Friday: MVFR/IFR in the early morning, then VFR mid morning, then MVFR or lower possible in any showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon. LLWS possible. S winds 5-15kt with higher gusts possible. && .MARINE... Fog over the waters through Monday night. S/SE winds 15 kts or less and seas 2-4 ft are forecast on all waters out to 60NM through Friday. There is a chance for dense fog on the waters Tuesday morning, reducing visibility to less than 1 nm. There is the chance for some thunderstorms over the waters late on Friday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MEZ017-030. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JS/JMM AVIATION...TF/JS/JMM  857 FXUS64 KLZK 241127 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 627 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 -Relatively cooler temperatures will be seen from today through much of the upcoming week, compared to the brutal temperatures felt across Arkansas last week. -The greatest chance for appreciable rainfall totals across parts of the state will be today looking ahead through Sunday. -Northwesterly flow will begin to be interrupted by the weekend as the upper lvl ridge begins to elongate and become placed over the Southern Plains leading to an uptick in temperatures and decrease in rain chances statewide. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 As of just after 1 AM CDT, scattered rain showers with a few weak thunderstorms have entered Arkansas and are impacting portions of northern and central parts of the state moving in a trajectory south- southeastward through Arkansas. Intensity and coverage is expected to expand throughout the morning across the state. In the upper lvls northwesterly flow over Arkansas continues to be the main weather driver across the CWA as the center of the pronounced upper lvl ridge remains cemented over the Four Corner region of the CONUS. At the sfc, a weak cold front has pushed into Louisiana. The proximity of a low level jet and associated mid-level jet streak has led to the development of the rain and storm activity moving across Arkansas. Expect isolated to scattered coverage of storms across much of the state this morning, especially the central and southern portions of the state after sunrise. Rain and storms will continue an overall movement of northwest to southeast across corridors of the state. Rain and thunderstorm chances will begin to diminish into the overnight hours across the southeastern part of the state wrapping up the event completely. The main hazard with any storm that does manage to become severe will be damaging wind gusts. A lower-end flash flooding threat does exist, especially as these cells will likely train over the same locations which may lead to appreciable rainfall totals over a quick amount of time in the most efficient convection. From Tuesday through Sunday, expect a gradual warming of temperatures as POP chances diminish overall (with a few small exceptions) across the state as the week progresses. A stationary boundary will be draped across the state on Wednesday and be pushed southward by a weak cold front during the day on Thursday. However, confidence of widespread activity noted similar to today will likely not be present as any convection will be isolated. Into the weekend, POP chances across the CWA lower to near zero as the upper lvl ridge elongates over both the Four Corners region and Southern Plains regions of the CONUS. In response, overall temperatures will continue to tick upwards and high temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees are expected across most of the state, especially into the later part of the weekend and early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Expect periods of degraded flight category across all TAF sites through the midday to afternoon timeframe on Monday as widespread rain and storms move across the state and will degrade VSBY to as low as IFR flight category. Additionally, surface winds in excess of 30 knots are expected. Into Monday evening and for the remainder of the forecast period VSBY is expected improve and flight category is expected to remain VFR across all TAF sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 89 71 95 72 / 60 20 10 40 Camden AR 92 73 98 73 / 40 20 10 10 Harrison AR 86 69 92 70 / 80 10 0 30 Hot Springs AR 90 73 98 74 / 40 20 10 10 Little Rock AR 89 74 97 75 / 80 20 10 20 Monticello AR 89 72 95 74 / 80 30 30 10 Mount Ida AR 91 71 99 72 / 40 20 10 10 Mountain Home AR 86 69 92 70 / 60 10 10 20 Newport AR 89 72 94 72 / 30 20 10 40 Pine Bluff AR 88 72 95 73 / 80 20 20 20 Russellville AR 90 72 97 73 / 70 20 10 20 Searcy AR 89 71 95 72 / 80 20 20 30 Stuttgart AR 89 73 95 74 / 80 20 20 30 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...74  852 FXUS64 KMOB 241127 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 627 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 626 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected each afternoon this week, particularly across the southern half of the area. Storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. - Hot conditions continue, with heat indices topping out at around 102-107 degrees each day. && .UPDATE... Issued at 626 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 The current forecast is on track and no updates are needed. /13 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A much more active weather pattern is expected this week as our local area remains underneath a northwesterly flow pattern aloft. This flow is the result of a building ridge over the Rockies and longwave troughing over the Great Lakes region. Over the coming days, several embedded shortwaves are expected to push through this flow and pass overhead, helping to provide large scale ascent to the local region. Pairing this with PWATs of around 2 inches and a highly unstable environment due to strong diurnal heating, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop each day this week, mainly during the afternoon and into the evening hours. Latest CAMs suggest that this coming afternoon/evening may be one of the more active days this week as a rather stout shortwave pushes into the local area. Although storms over our area may initially develop along the sea breeze boundary by the coast and spread via outflow boundaries, guidance is also suggesting that upstream storms, sparked by the shortwave aloft, may organize into an MCS and push southeastward throughout the day. Although a bit uncertain as to how much of the local area will be impacted by this MCS, confidence is higher for locations west of the Tombigbee River at this time. Although any storm that develops today will be capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall, the greatest threat for strong to severe weather will come with this MCS. Right now guidance has this MCS entering our Mississippi counties by as early as 2PM and pushing off the Alabama coast by or before 8PM. Damaging winds will be the greatest hazard from this complex. Heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flooding is also a concern. Latest HREF 24hr LPMMs suggest 3-5 inches of rain over portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama, along with localized maximums of around 5-7 inches. If storms can train over the same areas for a long period of time, then these values may become realized. Rain chances quickly diminish this evening in the wake of the MCS. As stated before, daily chances for scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected throughout the remainder of the week. Highest coverage looks to be over our coastal counties thanks to development along the sea breeze boundary. Each day comes with the risk of gusty to locally damaging downburst winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flooding concerns. Some guidance suggests that another MCS may travel within the northwesterly flow and impact portions of the local area midweek. If this were to happen, then similar to today, damaging winds would be the primary impact. We will monitor trends closely over the coming days. With the increase in rain chances, high temperatures are expected to trend back to seasonal norms. Highs in the low to mid 90s today should decrease to the upper 80s to low 90s by midweek. Heat indices throughout the period should generally remain just below Heat Advisory criteria (around 102-107), although a few localized spots of108-110 degrees cannot be ruled out along the coast. Lows will range from the low 70s inland to the upper 70s along the coast. A Low Risk of rip currents remains in place through the week. /96 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through The morning hours. Scattered to numerous showers and storms should start to develop across the area by the late morning/early afternoon hours. Expect brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 203 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 94 73 91 72 / 80 30 50 20 Pensacola 93 75 90 75 / 60 30 50 20 Destin 90 76 89 76 / 30 30 50 40 Evergreen 96 70 93 70 / 60 20 50 10 Waynesboro 94 72 93 70 / 70 20 30 10 Camden 94 71 93 71 / 40 10 20 10 Crestview 95 70 92 70 / 70 30 60 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  805 FXUS65 KFGZ 241125 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 425 AM MST Mon Aug 24 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Moderate monsoon activity will continue through today, mainly along the higher terrain during the afternoon and evening hours. As high pressure builds over Arizona, expect hot temperatures and a decrease in storm activity to develop as moisture diminishes across the region. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure remains centered across New Mexico early this morning. The high drifts to the west today through Tuesday before becoming centered over Arizona. As we move through the rest of the week, the high starts to sink further to the south and east. Today and Tuesday...A few showers and isolated storms continue early this morning, mainly across Yavapai County, in response to outflows from storms across the valley overnight. Precipitation with this activity is light and not expected to be very impactful, other than increasing cloud cover through daybreak. Going through the rest of today, we see monsoon moisture remaining in place with another fairly active afternoon/evening across the region. Best chances will be across the higher terrain and across western portions of the forecast area as moisture is advected up from the Gulf of California in the continued southerly flow. Storm motions remain on the slow side which will keep flash flooding as the main hazard for the day. As the high pushes back to the west we will lose some of that good moisture advection into the region and storm chances will start to decrease. Expect storms to develop mainly across the higher terrain for Tuesday. Wednesday through Friday...As the high becomes centered over Arizona, we see the moisture start to get cut off as subsidence wins out with drier conditions expected. Best chances for any storms will remain mainly across the higher terrain with the highest chances towards the White Mountains. The other factor of the strengthening high will be the increasing temperatures, which will be hot across the region. With highs reaching back into the 100s and heat risk increasing, we have issued an Extreme Heat Warning for the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon and Yavapai County, for areas below 4000 feet, in effect for Wednesday through Friday. Saturday and Sunday...Models show the high elongating and sliding to the east of the region by the weekend. This shift may help to usher moisture back into our area with better chances for showers and thunderstorms returning along with slightly cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION...Monday 24/12Z through Tuesday 25/12Z...Mainly VFR conditions. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA through 15Z, becoming ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA between 18Z-03Z, mainly west of a KPAN-KPGA line. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty/erratic winds to 40 kts possible in heavier SHRA/TSRA. Outside of storms, expect S-SW winds 5-15 kts, becoming variable or terrain driven winds overnight. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 25/12Z through Thursday 27/12Z...Mainly VFR conditions. ISO SHRA/TSRA between 18Z-02Z each day, mainly over the higher terrain. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty/erratic winds to 40 kts possible in heavier SHRA/TSRA. Outside of storms, expect SW-W winds 5-15 kts, becoming variable or terrain driven winds overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today through Tuesday...Chance for showers and thunderstorms continue through today with the greatest coverage across the higher terrain and best timing from around midday into the evening hours. Drier conditions are possible Tuesday, with low- grade monsoonal conditions developing. Outside of gusty and erratic storm driven winds, expect southwest to west winds around 5-15 mph during the day, becoming variable at night. Wednesday through Friday...Hot temperatures return with drier conditions expected. Low-grade monsoonal conditions each day, mainly across the higher terrain and becoming largely limited to the White Mountains. Expect southwest winds around 5-15 mph each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM MST Friday for AZZ006-037. && $$ PUBLIC...Meola AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...Meola For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  882 FXUS61 KCLE 241128 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 728 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No impactful changes were made with this morning's forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Nicer and drier weather will arrive today for most of the area. Scattered lake effect rain showers will continue to impact far NEOH and NWPA today through early Tuesday. 2) A weak cold front will move across the Great Lakes region late Wednesday night into Thursday with the next chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered lake effect rain showers and isolated thunder will continue to impact the "Snowbelt" area of far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania today through tonight. A deep upper level trough has developed over the eastern half of the Great Lakes this morning and will slowly move eastward by tomorrow. The backside of this trough will continue to bring a cooler northerly flow over the eastern Great Lakes today and tonight before it finally pulls away Tuesday. Therefore, scattered lake effect rain showers will continue over NEOH and NWPA through early Tuesday morning. Rain chances or POPS will be likely today and gradually decrease overnight into early Tuesday morning. For the rest of northern and central Ohio, nicer weather will return today with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and drier weather. High pressure will build across the Ohio Valley today and continue to bring very nice weather through Wednesday. High temperatures will be cooler today with upper 60s in far NEOH and NWPA where there will be more clouds and showers from lake effect. North central and Northwest Ohio will have more sunshine with passing scattered clouds and high temps in the lower to middle 70s. It will also feel less humid with the drier airmass moving. High temps will slowly climb over the next few days reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday areawide. Overnight low temps will be in the 50s away from the immediate lakeshore. KEY MESSAGE 2.. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Wednesday night through Thursday evening with a weak, slow moving cold front across the Great Lakes region. The latest model guidance has trended slightly downward on POPs and QPF. At this time, it appears there will be scattered showers and some thunder possible with the greater POPs around 40 to 50 percent during day Thursday. Severe weather is not expected at this as the thermodynamics looks fairly weak. High pressure will build back into the region on Friday with warm and nice day. High temperatures will climb through next weekend with lower to middle 80s across the area. && .AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Main potential impacts this TAF period are lake effect clouds and rain showers across parts of Northeast OH and Northwest PA, and slightly elevated west-northwest winds increasing to 10-15kt with some 20-25kt gusts late this morning into this afternoon. Main impacts from the lake effect will be at ERI, where occasional and mainly short-lived vsby restrictions are possible with any showers that impact the field. There is an uptick in activity occurring now, with another uptick likely mid to late afternoon...have TEMPOs for both windows. A shower may try developing near CLE before 14z, though thus far that has not taken shape that far west so confidence is too low for any inclusion in the TAF. Cumulus around 040-050 will become SCT- BKN across Northeast OH and Northwest PA this afternoon, with VFR conditions and only FEW-SCT cumulus farther west. Some patchy fog/mist is likely early Tuesday morning near the end of the TAF period, and began a light mention at the prone sites. Outlook...Non-VFR possible at times in lake effect rain and/or low ceilings in NW PA into Tuesday. Non-VFR may return in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday. && .MARINE... Brisk west-northwest winds in the 15-25 knot range will continue through this afternoon, before subsiding to 10-15 knots tonight as high pressure builds out of the Ohio Valley. Winds will diminish to 10 knots or less and become more variable on Tuesday as high pressure moves overhead, before shifting south at near 10 knots Tuesday night and Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. This weak cold front crosses the lake Wednesday night into Thursday, increasing winds slightly to 10-15 knots and veering them to a more southwesterly direction. Waves of 3 to 7 feet will continue across the central and eastern basin through this afternoon before gradually subsiding from west to east late today through Tuesday. All ongoing headlines remain as posted east of the Islands before expiring from west to east late this afternoon or evening. Waterspouts remain possible on Lake Erie with any shower activity through Tuesday morning, especially across the eastern basin. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for OHZ009-010. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for OHZ011-012- 089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ144- 145. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LEZ146>149. && $$ DISCUSSION...77 AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...Sullivan  932 FXUS63 KEAX 241130 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 630 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer today, with highs in the low to mid 80s for most locations. - Seasonal temperatures (highs in the mid to upper 80s) expected for Tuesday through Friday. - Showers and thunderstorms possible Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. - Hot and humid conditions likely this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Northwesterly flow aloft remains entrenched over the region between high amplitude ridging across the Rockies and western CONUS and troughing across the NE CONUS and into the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, the center of the high has drifted off to the east a bit, but winds remain light and out of the east to southeast. Conditions this early morning are quite pleasant for late August, with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s for most locations (upper 50s across NE Missouri). A few light showers are ongoing across the region as of 3 AM, but these are still dealing with dry low levels. The south southeasterly oriented low level jet is beginning to strengthen a bit, but the strongest corridor of the LLJ will remain west of our CWA from roughly Salina into NE Oklahoma. CAMs suggest additional convective development within a few hours, but this should remain west and southwest of the CWA within the better LLJ dynamics (although perhaps some showers and storms could make their way into Linn County KS). Meanwhile, a subtle shortwave and vort max translating through the northwesterly flow along the northeastern periphery of the upper ridge has initiated an MCS across extreme SE South Dakota and into NE Nebraska. This will continue to drift to the south southeast this early morning, but should dissipate before reaching far NW Missouri. Dry conditions are likely for this afternoon, with decent high level cloud cover lingering through early to mid afternoon. High temperatures this afternoon should range between around 80 degrees across NE Missouri to the mid 80s elsewhere (upper 80s south of the KC metro toward Linn County KS and Bates County MO). We will get some moisture return today, with dew points increasing from their current values in the upper 50s to lower 60s to the mid 60s to perhaps even upper 60s. The synoptic scale pattern remains mostly status quo heading into tomorrow. The H5 high remains centered over New Mexico and into west Texas, with mid/upper troughing across the NE CONUS and another upper trough moving across Saskatchewan into the Upper Midwest, flattening the ridge up north, as NW flow remains in place over the CWA. Temperatures should rebound into the mid to upper 80s Tuesday afternoon (lower 90s possible toward the Butler area) with dew points increasing further by a couple degrees. Weak height falls and strong daytime heating is likely to initiate scattered storm coverage across portions of south Central Nebraska into northern Kansas by mid to late Tuesday afternoon, with this moving off to the east southeast through the remainder of the afternoon hours and into Tuesday evening/night. The question is just how far east convection will be able to maintain itself, but SPC has put far NE Kansas and NW Missouri into a marginal risk for severe storms for Tuesday evening, with chance PoPs (30 to 40%) across much of the CWA for Tuesday evening/night. For Wednesday through Friday, the H5 high is progged to migrate over the Desert Southwest, with high amplitude ridging across the Rockies and as far north as the Canadian Plains of Alberta and Saskatchewan, with longwave upper troughing extending southward from Hudson Bay all the way through the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley. This will continue to place our CWA beneath northwesterly mid/upper flow. Daily highs should be in the mid to upper 80s (right at seasonal normals) with generally dry conditions expected. By this weekend, the upper ridge axis is progged to drift further east, so closer to our CWA, as an upper trough comes ashore across the Pacific Northwest. This should lead to increased mid level heights and warmer 850 temps, translating to surface high temperatures into the upper 80s to low to mid 90s and increased humidity for Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 618 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Convection is ongoing both north northwest of the terminals toward Omaha and west and south of the terminals from eastern Kansas into SW Missouri, but the terminals should remain dry this morning (IXD could maybe get clipped by a shower between 13z and 15z). A broken to overcast cloud deck around 10 kft remains over the area, but this should begin to scatter out by late morning into early afternoon, with VFR conditions expected through the period. 5 to 10 knot winds out of the east southeast should persist through the period. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMW AVIATION...BMW  921 FXUS63 KFSD 241130 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 630 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - An isolated severe storm is possible this evening into the overnight, with better chances in central SD and also near and north of Highway 14. An isolated stronger storm may also develop across portions of northwest Iowa/southwest Minnesota late Tuesday afternoon. - Seasonable temperatures through the week ahead with highs in the upper 70s and 80s, and lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 A progressive cluster of showers and thunderstorms continues to track east-southeast across southeast South Dakota early this morning. Have seen an occasional brief uptick in storm strength at the southern end of the line throughout its lifecycle, but outside of a couple of weak supercells with stronger hail cores just before/around midnight, storms have remained below severe limits. Stronger cores are producing swaths of heavier rainfall with a few personal weather station reports around 2 inches in far southern Bon Homme County. Storms looks to impact portions of the I-29 corridor, mainly south of Sioux Falls, through the morning drive time, and may have to watch the Sioux City metro for localized flooding concerns if the heavier rain rates just south of the Missouri River maintain current strength over the next 2-3 hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A pair of waves are affecting the area, or nearby, today. The first is moving southeast through Nebraska and is keeping any instability to the south and west bottled up. Model soundings not hinting at a whole lot of activity this afternoon, with a fairly dry and stable air mass in place. Tonight a second wave will pass by to the north and will swing a little bit of mid level moisture into the area. As this moisture moves in, some weak elevated instability, likely 500-750 J/kg CAPE develops. This will support some scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity, but for now severe weather looks unlikely. A few pockets of heavier rain are also possible, but also trending downward. Monday will see temperatures warm a bit with humidity likely to increase as well. This is in response to strengthening southerly flow as a stronger wave moves east along the Canadian border. This will increase instability, especially to the northwest of the area, and should bring scattered thunderstorms to parts of central SD and near the highway 14 corridor. With the potential for about 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE and decent unidirectional shear, and isolated severe storm will be possible in these locations. One area to watch will be near northwest IA late Monday afternoon and evening where there are some hints the cap could weaken a bit as elevated moisture advection bring some instability to that area. Low confidence, but something to monitor. Northwest flow aloft Tuesday into the weekend will keep seasonally warm temperatures in place with highs in the 80s and lows from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Starting to see a little more consistency on the next better chance for showers and thunderstorms on Friday. The latest Canadian, GEFS and EC ensembles all indicate about a 30-50 percent chance for a tenth of an inch or more of precipitation. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Showers continue to pull southeast as we start this TAF period, lingering in portions of northwest Iowa for another 1-3 hours (only through about 13Z for KSUX). The remainder of the period should see VFR conditions prevail, with low confidence chances for isolated thunderstorms during the latter half of the period. KHON has a slightly better chance at seeing convection after sunset than KFSD/KSUX, but even there confidence is too low to include mention of TS at this time. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JH DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...JH  922 FXUS63 KJKL 241130 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 730 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Noticeably less humid air prevails early this week, with below normal morning low temperatures. - Temperatures and humidity will increase Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the next cold front, leading to a potential for storms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 720 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026 No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. Look for the valley fog to clear out between 9 and 10 am. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 420 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026 07Z sfc analysis shows high pressure over the Ohio Valley - dominating the weather for Kentucky this night. This has meant mostly clear skies, light to calm winds, and good radiational cooling conditions. As such, areas of fog developed in the river valleys and they have become locally dense. In addition, a small ridge to valley temperature difference showed up with readings ranging from the upper 50s in the lower sheltered spots to the low and mid 60s on top of the hills. Meanwhile, dewpoints were generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict a deep closed low 5h tough over the eastern Great Lakes while stout ridging is noted over the land of enchantment state and western Texas. This places eastern Kentucky on the southwest edge of the northeast trough - a location that keeps a steady stream of air running from northwest to southeast overhead at mid levels. The trough will fill and lift northeast through the start of the week allowing the northwest flow to slow a bit with time while any energy passing through is mostly unconsolidated and benign - a far cry from those that spawned the MCS activity of the past couple of weeks. Only late in the period do we start to see a minor trough develop over the western Great Lakes with a potential impact for our area later in the week. On account of the relatively small spread in the models' solutions for the overall pattern aloft, the unadjusted NBM data was used for the bulk of the grids for this forecast package. However, some enhancements were made to the afternoon dew points and terrain differences at night given the drier air mass in place. PoPs were left near zero through Tuesday evening. Sensible weather each day will feature terrific conditions with comfortable afternoon humidity levels and ample sunshine once the early morning valley fog clears. Temperatures will be on the cool side today and near normal for Tuesday. At night, look for valley fog developing and those valleys to run a few degrees cooler than ridge tops under mostly clear skies and seasonably cool low temperatures. The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to include the impacts of radiational cooling at night for terrain distinction and also some dry air available to mixdown each afternoon - lowering dewpoints and RH. Little opportunity to improve PoPs or QPF was noted through Tuesday evening. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 345 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026 As the long term period opens, a high amplitude upper level ridge will sit over the western CONUS, with troughing in the East. Within this broader troughing, a relatively vertically stacked closed low will be located over Ontario, on the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge. At the surface, a cold front will extend to the southwest of this low (roughly draped from the Upper Midwest into the Great Plains). As this low progresses to the southeast with time, the upper level trough axis will also progress east. A broad area of height falls is expected across the Ohio Valley, intensified by a shortwave that may approach the forecast area around Wednesday afternoon/evening. Concurrently, another surface low originally over the Southern Plains will translate to the northeast, with a warm front lifting north toward Tennessee. Although southwesterly winds should allow for very modest moisture return for the forecast area on Wednesday, the best chances for rain during the day will be closer to the vicinity of the front and the low, well southwest of the forecast area. Thus, the forecast area should remain relatively dry during the day on Wednesday, with warmer weather than in previous days. Highs will rise into the mid to upper 80s, marking a return to average to slightly above average temperatures, and with dewpoints rising back into the 60s, it will feel more humid, too. Following a relatively quiet day, rain chances will tick up again Wednesday night into Thursday as the aforementioned Canadian low translates eastward and its cold front approaches the forecast area. Scattered showers and storms will be possible ahead of this boundary, although with shear remaining weak (with effective shear in the neighborhood of 20-25 kts), more robust storm organization will be lacking. With the parent low so far north, frontal forcing will also be relatively weak, with a barely perceptible temperature and moisture gradient along the frontal boundary by the time it approaches eastern Kentucky. These factors will keep convective coverage scattered overnight Wednesday through Thursday. By Friday, the cold front will have cleared the area, marking a return to a drier pattern. The upper level trough axis will be east of the area; meanwhile, the upper level ridge will have expanded eastward somewhat, with height rises across the forecast area and flow becoming increasingly zonal aloft as the trough lifts northward. Given this pattern, temperatures will likely be above average through the duration of the period, with forecast highs generally in the mid to upper 80s. An isolated shower or storm will be possible in far eastern Kentucky on Friday afternoon where the ridging influence is the weakest; otherwise, rain chances will remain low for the duration of the period, with the most notable weather being typical valley fog formation overnight. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026 Valley fog will be a concern early this morning bringing localized IFR or worse conditions, intermittently affecting the KSME and KSJS TAF sites for a brief time through 13Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected through the period along with light and variable winds. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...FAGAN AVIATION...GREIF  980 FXUS63 KLOT 241130 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 630 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The potential for showers and thunderstorms returns on Wednesday along a cold front, some could be strong to severe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 212 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 High pressure continues to settle into the mid-Mississippi Valley and will remain in place through Tuesday. As a result, dry conditions with generally comfortable humidity are expected to start off the work week. Temperatures today will once again be on the seasonably cool side with highs only topping out in the upper 70s to around 80 this afternoon. A lake breeze is expected to develop and move inland this afternoon and evening which will result in cooling temperatures along the lakeshore, though with lake temperatures in the lower 70s the temperature drop shouldn't be overly impressive. Overnight lows tonight won't be as chilly as they will be this morning, but will dip into the mid-50s inland with upper 50s near the lake. As winds turn more south-southwesterly on Tuesday, warmer air should begin to advect into the area and result in more seasonable highs in the lower 80s. Rain chances are still forecast to increase as we head into the middle of the week as the shortwave trough over the Mountain West pivots into the Great Lakes. A cold front is expected to accompany the shortwave as it moves through the region which should serve as the impetus for showers and thunderstorms. Similar to last night, guidance continues to show some showers/storms developing along the front in the Upper Midwest on Tuesday and drifting towards northern IL Tuesday night. Though, with moisture return continuing to look more limited locally and the unfavorable diurnal time, these showers/storms should be in a decaying state as they approach IL (if they make it at) so the greatest coverage of any rain Tuesday night should be near the IL-WI line. The front is expected to continue moving across northern IL and northwest IN on Wednesday which should allow for the redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening as diurnal destabilization occurs. Despite the decent MLCAPE values noted in forecast soundings, shower and storm coverage continues to look spotty, likely due to weaker frontal convergence and the core of the shortwave currently forecast to be centered over MI. So while this may mean some areas get little rain, our official forecast will continue to advertise broad 30 to locally 50% chances for showers and storms on Wednesday. Regardless of storm coverage, deep layer shear values of 25-35 kts are still expected in the area which may support a few storms becoming strong to locally severe Wednesday afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has added a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk to our area for Wednesday because of this potential. The cold front should exit the area late Wednesday night into Thursday morning which looks to allow another surface high to build into the area. However, with some subtle frontal timing differences noted in ensemble guidance, the exact time the front exits remains uncertain. Nevertheless, the building high pressure behind the front will result in a period of dry weather to close out the work week with otherwise seasonable temperatures expected. The signal remains for a shift towards a more active upper-level pattern as we head towards the beginning of next week which looks to mean more shower and thunderstorm chances so enjoy the nice weather while we have it. Yack && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Key aviation forecast messages: - East wind shift behind a lake breeze at ORD/MDW this afternoon Prevailing NW to NNW winds are expected through midday around 5-10 kt. A lake breeze is then forecast to drift inland during the afternoon. While the timing of the wind shift may need slight adjustments based on radar and observational trends, have maintained 20Z MDW and 22Z ORD with this update. Winds ease and become light southeast to at times variable overnight then trend SSW after daybreak Tuesday. VFR conditions are forecast through the period with varying coverage of diurnal cumulus around 5000 ft and occasional higher clouds. Shallow fog (MIFG) has developed in low spots outside of Chicago early this morning. Expect this to quickly erode over the next hour or so with another round of MIFG possible again late tonight outside of Chicago. Petr && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  943 FXUS64 KEPZ 241130 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 530 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 525 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Above normal temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas through the week ahead. Lowland highs will range upper 90s to 105, which will approach daily records. - Very limited thunderstorm chances in the mountains for today. Dry elsewhere. - Chances for thunderstorms will improve Thursday into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 525 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions are expected today with SKC-FEW120/250. Winds will be light and variable though favoring from the southeast. Speeds will top out generally less than 10 knots with an occasional gust up to 20 knots. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Hot conditions will continue with afternoon min RH values dropping into the lower to mid teens in the lowlands. Winds will be light with good vent categories. It will be hotter for Tuesday but rain/storm chances will start a gradual increase for the mountains. By Thursday, shower and thunderstorm chances will return to all areas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 225 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Hot and dry conditions will persist through the weekend, with very low chances for a pop-up shower or thunderstorm in the Gila and Sacramentos for the remainder of the afternoon and Monday afternoon. Isolated dry lightning strikes are possible. Minimum RH values will drop just below 10 percent in the lowlands the next few afternoons, while the forested high elevations hold onto 15 to 25%. Winds will remain light. An uptick in thunderstorms, mainly in the higher terrain, is expected Wednesday, and another tick higher Thursday, as the upper ridge drifts west of the area again, opening us up to weak disturbances aloft dropping in from the north. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 76 104 76 103 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 68 102 67 100 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 69 103 71 102 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 73 102 72 100 / 0 0 0 10 Cloudcroft 56 78 56 77 / 0 10 0 40 Truth or Consequences 72 101 73 100 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 65 96 67 95 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 70 104 71 103 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 70 102 72 102 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 76 105 77 103 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 71 104 70 102 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 75 108 74 107 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 70 98 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 73 105 73 103 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 72 103 73 103 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 76 105 76 103 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 71 103 71 103 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 71 106 72 105 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 74 104 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 70 101 70 100 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 61 91 60 89 / 0 10 0 40 Mescalero 59 90 59 88 / 0 10 0 40 Timberon 59 88 58 86 / 0 0 0 30 Winston 63 92 64 92 / 0 0 0 20 Hillsboro 70 100 71 100 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 69 102 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 59 93 60 93 / 0 10 0 10 Hurley 66 99 68 98 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 68 103 69 103 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 65 99 67 99 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 68 98 7097 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 71 103 71 103 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 70 101 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 69 101 69 101 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 67 97 68 97 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown  101 FXUS64 KAMA 241132 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 632 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 144 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Summer heat wave continues with impactful temperatures near or above 100 degrees today. - Thunderstorm chances pick up across the Panhandles today through Thursday, with Tuesday and Wednesday having at least a medium chance 30-50% of storms across all areas. - Severe weather will be possible today and Tuesday with strong damaging winds as the primary threat, but will not rule out large hail on Tuesday as well. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 144 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Latest radar shows frontal boundary moving through Amarillo as of Midnight. Shower activity is on the downward trend but localized heat burst allowing wind gusts 40 to 55 mph could still be possible with any decaying showers. This front is a bit on the weak side and will not likely impact our highs by much today. We still will be looking at several areas over 100, and the southeast looks to break 105, so a Heat Advisory has been issued for that area, as well as Palo Duro Canyon. Typical high pressure continues over our area with a subtle wave to move through the western Panhandles late this afternoon and evening. With that wave we could see storms off the mountain track along it, and bring a chance of showers and storms to that area. Given these typical high based storms with strong inverted V profile would support strong damaging wind gusts as the primary threat with any storm that occurs. On Tuesday we will be looking at easterly low level flow that will bring our dewpoints up and the ridge will start to shift further south, giving us more of a northwest flow pattern. With another wave in that northwest flow we expect storms off the mountains to track into the northwest in the evening. But the late afternoon we are showing the potential for isolated to scattered convection in the central to eastern Panhandles. Given light to moderate shear as well as CAPE values over 2000 J/kg and the lift from the wave, would support a decent chance at strong to severe storms with hail up to ping pong and wind gusts up to 75 mph. Coverage of storms will still be a bit tricky as it starts off with the isolated to scattered convection in the central and east, but the west should have more of a cluster come in laster in the evening, but its a little bit of a challenge as to if it will hold together later in the evening for the south and eastern Panhandles. Weber && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 144 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 A pattern change could be on the way as Wednesday's setup is similar to Tuesday with another round of storms off the mountains expected to track across the Panhandles. Thursday we'll have to watch a bit closer, as there is conflicting models. It may yet again be like anther Tuesday and Wednesday, but there is a hint that the ridge may shift a bit further west giving us more of a northerly flow and the storms could stay off to the west in NM. Friday through Sunday the ridge tries to shift further west including over the Panhandles by Sunday and with that comes the hot temperature return and limited precipitation chances. Weber && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 A few CAMs have seen the potential for isolated storms to develop in the south later this afternoon. However, the best chances of storms continue to trend with the activity expected to move in from Eastern New Mexico around 00 UTC timeframe. This activity does have the potential to see impacts to KDHT through the late evening and night time hours with KGUY and KAMA seeing their chances dwindle with each run of the CAMs. Still enough confidence is present at KGUY for a PROB30 to be included with current package with potential to see activity last beyond 06 UTC should it make it there. Otherwise, conditions at terminals are expected to hold at VFR through the afternoon and early evening. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ018>020-317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...89 LONG TERM....89 AVIATION...11  180 FXUS64 KMEG 241133 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 633 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Shower and thunderstorm chances increase on Monday, mainly for areas in the Mississippi Delta - Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected through Thursday. - Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected across the Mid-South for most of the week, but extreme heat is not expected. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A 596 dam ridge remains parked over the Desert Southwest, placing the Mid-South in northwest flow aloft. Guidance continues to bring a shortwave out of the Rockies today, becoming embedded within the outer periphery of the ridge. This disturbance will increase shower and thunderstorm chances within the Mississippi Delta. There is potential for associated convection to remain west of the forecast area due to dry air aloft and lower dewpoints. If precipitation does occur in the Delta, amounts will be negligible. As for afternoon highs, the NBM continues to show a 7 degree spread amongst the 25th and 75th percentiles. This is likely due to issues in modeling cloud cover associated with the aforementioned precipitation. Regardless, afternoon highs will be much cooler than recent days as temperatures remain in the upper 80s to low 90s. As for Tuesday, lingering showers and storms cannot be ruled out through mid-morning but the latter half of the day should remain dry. Additional disturbances will eject out of the Rockies midweek into the weekend. This will keep daily rain chances in the forecast. The greatest rainfall potential will be Wednesday into Thursday as a warm front lifts north and a cold front approaches from the Upper Mississippi Valley. Confidence in severe weather potential is low at this time, but given persistent northwest flow aloft and forecast SBCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg a few strong storms cannot be ruled out. Details will become clearer as we move closer to midweek. Beyond Thursday's frontal passage, conditions will dry out for the upcoming weekend. Unfortunately, guidance brings hot and humid conditions back in the forecast with heat indices reaching headline criteria by Saturday. Until then, the probability of reaching 105 + heat index values is less than 20 percent. ANS && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 The main area of SHRAs and TSRAs continues to move through central AR with just a few light SHRAs across parts of east AR. Will start with VCSH at JBR and MEM. VFR conditions are expected areawide today. Another round of SHRAs and TSRAs will develop later tonight. This round looks to be a little further east, so added a PROB30 to MEM. Winds are expected to be light through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Fog is not anticipated Monday morning due to advancing cloud cover and elevated surface winds. The upcoming week will feature minimum relative humidity values in excess of 45 percent and daily wetting rain chances. As such, fire weather concerns are at a minimum. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...SJM  185 FXUS65 KVEF 241133 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 433 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Hotter than normal temperatures will continue through the week. * Best chance of storms along and south of I-15 today, with diminishing odds afterwards. && .DISCUSSION...Through the weekend. A slight cooldown is anticipated today and Tuesday thanks to a subtle uptick in moisture and fall in 500mb heights. Highs during this time are forecast to be 1-5 degrees cooler than yesterday (largest cooldown across the southeastern half of the CWA), but still above normal for late August. From Wednesday through Friday, ensemble guidance suggests an uptick in 500mb heights and southwesterly flow, the latter yielding a gradual reduction of moisture. The net effect of these changes is warming at the surface, with highs returning to values 3-8 degrees above normal. Combined with oppressive overnight lows, major to extreme heatrisk resumes across most of the Mojave Desert. Over the weekend (and into early next week), ensembles depict a broader trough approaching the western US, leading to cooler temperatures and increased breezes. Overnight radar and satellite imagery shows a complex of storms in southern AZ pushing our way. Convection should wane before it reaches our area, but the southerly outflow will advect in additional moisture through the early morning hours. Latest HREF shows the 1" PWAT contour extending up to the I-15 corridor this afternoon, which should allow isolated to scattered storms in this area. Main concerns will be gusty outflow winds and dry lightning, but cannot rule out isolated instances of flash flooding. Moisture should then gradually decrease throughout the week, leading to more isolated and weaker activity. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...At issuance, an outflow boundary from storms in Arizona is moving northwestward, expected to result in a southeasterly wind shift at the terminal early in the period. Southeasterly winds around 8-10KT are expected to persist through late morning, then veer to the southwest. Outside of convective influences, winds will be similar to yesterday, with speeds 12-15KT and gusts to 20-25KT through sunset. However, there is a 10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms to develop over the higher terrain to the east and south of the Valley with potential outflow impacts at the terminal, thus there is moderate confidence in the wind forecast. Outflow will remain a concern through the evening, with winds expected to become light and variable overnight. VFR conditions will prevail with FEW-SCT clouds with bases at or above 12kft. Temperatures will exceed 100 degrees today from 18Z-02Z, with a high of 107 degrees. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Gusty southerly to southeasterly winds have developed through the Lower Colorado River Valley and across NW Arizona early in the period due to outflow, with southeasterly winds expected to develop in the Las Vegas Valley early in the period. This afternoon, winds will shift to the south and southwest, with speeds 10-15KT and gusts 20-25KT common, outside of convective influences. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, mainly along and south/east of I-15, with higher confidence over northwestern Arizona and potential impacts at KIFP/KEED. Outflow will remain a concern through the evening elsewhere, and trends will be monitored. At KDAG/across the western Mojave Desert, winds will generally remain around 10-15KT, veering throughout the day. In the northern Owens Valley/KBIH, gusty up-valley winds veer to the southwest late afternoon before shifting north in the evening. VFR conditions prevail, with FEW-SCT clouds at or above 10kft. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Woods AVIATION...Phillipson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  232 FXUS63 KDLH 241135 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 635 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The next chance for showers and storms will be tonight through Tuesday and again Wednesday. - Severe storms are possible, particularly Tuesday afternoon and evening with the passage of a cold front. - Seasonal, dry conditions return for the later part of this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 136 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Current conditions/this morning: High pressure is slowly sliding east this morning, with light and variable winds. Satellite imagery is showing some high level clouds pushing into the area from the west, but we will still have good radiational cooling conditions, and while I do not expect us to get quite as cold as last night, it will still be cool with lows in the 40s and perhaps upper 30s. Conditions will also be good for fog, bringing some patchy dense fog that will burn off quickly after sunrise. Today: Southerly warm air advection will push highs up into the mid 70s to around 80 across the area. We have been watching the potential for showers and thunderstorms approaching the area with a wave of warm air advection early this morning, which we can see have developed over northern North Dakota as of 1 AM. However, most mesoscale analysis does not support this convection getting much farther east than it already is, and should deteriorate to mainly cloud debris before it gets to the Northland. Precipitation chances increase tonight as the main upper level shortwave moves across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. Tonight there will be enough instability and decent deep layer shear to initiate convection over eastern North Dakota, then gradually slide east overnight. However, like tonight, the instability and shear weakens significantly to the east, and the storms are likely to weaken and dissipate as they move east. We do have a sliver of Marginal severe risk just to our west from SPC, but it and the even farther west Slight risk are likely to be the main concern of the night and am less concerned for the Northland. Tuesday: Warmer and more humid conditions push into the area, with surface based instability developing during the afternoon and evening hours. Then, just as the upper level shortwave moves across the area and deep layer shear parameters increase, there will be another wave of showers and thunderstorms which move across the Northland. These storms will have the potential to be strong to severe storms, with a few storms capable of producing 1" hail and damaging winds. SPC has a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) outlined for all of the Northland. Showers and non-severe storms will redevelop across the area on Wednesday in the cyclonic flow behind the upper level shortwave. While we will have mostly cyclonic flow on Thursday, the surface ridge building into the area and low level dry air should keep anything but diurnal cumulus from forming. Wednesday and Thursday will be cooler again as well. Dry and seasonable conditions to continue into Friday with high pressure lingering over the area. Weak upper level ridging builds into the area for the weekend, with poor predictability for precipitation chances as weak shortwaves may slide through the flow aloft and bring a round of showers/storms. The forecast has some low end chances for precipitation, but these may be more limited than is currently depicted. Temperatures should remain near normal through the weekend. Another potent upper level low will progress across the area early next week, which may bring another round of higher confidence precipitation chances. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 635 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Patchy fog will be lifting over the next hour at KHIB as daytime heating begins. Conditions will be VFR today with increasing cloud cover as low pressure moves towards the area. Showers will be appearing on radar this morning into the afternoon, but little to no precipitation is expected at the surface due to low-level dry air. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase tonight in northeast Minnesota, with the greatest potential for thunderstorms being in KINL. Severe storms are anticipated to be just to the west, weakening as they enter the region tonight. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 136 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Quiet conditions are expected across Western Lake Superior through today and tonight with waves of 1 foot or less and winds becoming easterly at generally less than 10 knots. Winds increase a little out of the southeast on Tuesday, along with shower and thunderstorm chances. We should have an initial wave of them Tuesday morning. Additional storms will develop during the afternoon and evening, some of which may be strong to severe. Shower chances to linger into Wednesday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 136 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 High pressure slides to our east today, allowing moisture to begin to push into the area from the west. Relative humidity values to be low again for the MN Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin, but farther west in Minnesota RH values will increase to over 40 percent. Winds will become southerly today, and may gust around 10 mph during the afternoon for parts of the area. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase for Monday night through Wednesday, most especially on Tuesday afternoon and evening, when some storms may become strong. RH values to remain above 40 percent for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Precipitation chances are highest along and north of the Iron Range, but most areas have at least a 40 percent chance of a wetting rainfall. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LE AVIATION...Unruh MARINE...LE FIRE WEATHER...LE  223 FXUS63 KFGF 241135 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 635 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon into the overnight. Hail to the size of golf balls and wind gusting to 70 mph will be the main threats. && .UPDATE... Issued at 419 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 A line of slow moving thunderstorms developed within the region of 925-850MB WAA and a 25-30kt low level jet where there was an axis of elevated mid level convergence. A weaker frontal zone/outflow is moving in from the west (near Minot) with the main upper wave still well over to the northwest along with it's associated front. There was training with high rain rates within this line that may have been enough to support flooding of low lying/poor drainage areas withing parts of northwest Benson County. This mornings activity is already showing signs of weakening as it moves off the axis of better instability to our west, and as the LLJ is continuing to weaken. This trend should continue, though some remnant showers/weak thunderstorms may continue to move east into the northern RRV during the morning hours. The main focus for severe chances today will continue to be the cold front expected to arrive this afternoon and push east through the evening/overnight hours as the main mid/upper waves passes to the north. Morning convective activity/cloud cover could initially play a complicating role in earlier initiation and if there isn't enough clearing activity may tend to be more elevated (lowering the ceiling on severe impacts). Considering the advertised effective shear with generally straight hodographs orientated W-E with the frontal zone. This would support the potential for splitting supercells at least early on during the evening (late afternoon/evening) before any activity clusters up and potentially turns into one or several MCS's. 0-3km shear does increase to 30kt behind the front later this evening as a NW orientated LLJ develops, but ahead of and along the front low level shear is weaker (25kt or less), so the wind threat may remain dependent on RFD surges or cold pool development. The more elevated the activity becomes though the less likely wind will be a factor, and the more hail would become the main threat. There may be just enough effective SRH near the frontal zone to support a low tornado risk early in the evening, with right split supercells (very subtle right curvature on some hodographs), and some AI systems are highlighting this risk. Just like with the wind threat today, any tornado risk will be highly dependent on the nature of the storms and if they remain surface based (hard to say at this point). UPDATE Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Northern end of some convection has been tracking through the Devils Lake basin for the last couple of hours, with the main impacts being some rain up to 4 tenths of an inch so far and some lightning. Heavier cells tracking southeastward through Wells and Foster counties, but on a weakening trend as they move into less unstable air. Most of the CAMs have the complex weakening as it moves towards the Red River later tonight, although a few models break out some stronger convection again on the northwest side. Given cell currently tracking into northwestern ND from MT, will keep a close eye on the activity. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...Synopsis... Northwest flow prevails this afternoon into the evening, gradually becoming zonal overnight. Showers and isolated thunderstorms could work into parts of eastern North Dakota overnight as warm air advection increases ahead of an approaching shortwave. Upper flow then becomes slightly southwest late overnight into Monday morning. This will be in response to the shortwave and weak upper low moving across southern Manitoba late Monday into Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected as the associated cold front sweeps across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, with a chance for isolated severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Warm air advection ahead of the front will allow afternoon temperatures to climb well into the 80s across most of the area. Slightly cooler temps return on Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain chances Late Tuesday through Thursday will be minimal, with PoPs increasing once more late Friday into the weekend. ...Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Late Monday... Severe thunderstorm coverage on Monday afternoon and evening will depend heavily on the timing of an approaching cold front. Warm air advection will be strong through much of the day across eastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota; however, with remnant shower activity on Monday morning potentially lingering, this could shorten the window of potential severe weather late Monday. Looking at CAMs, there are several potential scenarios, ranging from potential splitting supercells, to elevated clusters. Model soundings are consistent with nearly straight hodographs as the front approaches, which continue to support splitting supercells and hybrid clusters. As such, a high end scenario supports supercells developing west of the Red River during the late afternoon, with hazards including wind gusts to 75 mph and large hail to the size of golf balls. A more likely scenario would be that we have lingering convective inhibition later into the afternoon, thus delaying convection until later in the evening. This would still support wind gusts up to 70 mph, but would transition into mainly an elevated hail scenario that extends into the early overnight hours. With this later scenario, we could see isolated severe thunderstorms lingering into Tuesday morning across parts of northwest Minnesota. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 635 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is moving across northeast ND to the east, with the main area of thunderstorms tracking to the southeast and weakening. Confidence in thunderstorm activity moving into the vicinity of KFAR/KGFK is lower than actual shower chances this morning based on current radar/lightning obs in relation to where more unstable air is in place. After the activity this morning transitions east and breaks up, showers and thunderstorms should redevelop along a frontal zone late this afternoon and evening and then track east. Coverage of thunderstorms again will be more uncertain than showers at TAF sites, with highest coverage more likely in MN depending on how thunderstorms develop/track. Winds should shift from the southeast to southwest then west as the main cold front passes through the region. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...JR/DJR DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...DJR  201 FXUS65 KSLC 241134 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 534 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1151 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026... - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall across most of the region through early next week. - Thunderstorms will continue to impact the higher terrain and adjacent valleys through Wednesday. Another round of more widespread thunderstorms is increasing in likelihood for Friday into early next weekend. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1151 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026... Strong to severe convection will develop this afternoon and evening, with the highest probability of significant impacts (10% chance of wind gusts in excess of 70 mph) across northern Utah. A Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe thunderstorms has been issued for this area by the Storm Prediction Center. Looking at the set-up, this morning's 12Z sounding at KSLC already showed almost 1000 J/kg MUCAPE but with a fairly stout amount of convective inhibition. Latest guidance suggests this effective cap will erode by 20-21Z, allowing for robust convective development across northern Utah. Mean HREF SBCAPE indicates a broad area of values near to above around 1000-1500 J/kg across northern Utah coincident with deep layer shear around 25-30 kts. Weak surface convergence associated with a shortwave trough passing to the north may help to organize convection into a quasi-linear feature, though per typical in terrain, this is difficult to discern in model fields. The latest few HRRR runs do show a signature of an organized line of very strong outflow shifting across the west desert and into the Wasatch Front between 21Z and 01Z and then continuing to be quite strong into the Uinta County, WY area by 02-03Z. Peak wind gusts in these runs have increased to 55kts, but given the very steep lapse rates, relatively high instability for the Great Basin, modest deep layer shear and low LCLs, expect storms to be able to attain cold pool/shear balance. Saturday's convective outflow peak was 80 mph near Grassey on I-80...cant rule out a repeat somewhere along this area of outflow winds this afternoon and evening. For areas south of I-70, the heavy rain threat continues. While HREF peak 1 hour rates have decreased over Saturday's values, net available moisture has only decreased subtly. Expect any stronger thunderstorms, especially those tied to terrain features and/or training, to be capable of rainfall rates in excess of 0.50 inches per hour. Will need to monitor for flash flood threat across much of this area...especially for slot canyons, normally dry washes and recent burn scars. With the previously mentioned upper level trough passing to the east Monday, the best chance for strong outflow winds will shift to mainly the Utah/Idaho border region. Convection will become increasingly tied to the higher terrain and adjacent valleys through Wednesday...with only isolated convection expected Thursday as high pressure brings a drying trend to most locations. However...with the tropical eastern Pacific remaining quite active, at least a portion of ensemble members indicate the next trough approaching the Pacific Northwest will assist in shifting remnant tropical moisture into the Great Basin by Friday. This is something to watch moving forward. && .AVIATION... KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal through the period. Dry conditions will continue through the early afternoon before isolated convection develops during the afternoon with ~30% chance of impacting the terminal. This activity becomes less convective and more showery overnight. Winds will be light and diurnally driven aside from variable and gusty winds associated with precipitation near the terminal. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist for the entire airspace through the period. A few weak showers continue across the central airspace this morning, but these will weaken and dissipate by sunrise. Dry conditions will persist through the early afternoon before more convection develops across most of the airspace. This activity will transition to more showery precipitation across the northern airspace overnight. Winds will remain light before becoming breezy out of the southwest this afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER, Issued 431 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026... High pressure centered over the Four Corners region will remain fairly stationary throughout the week. Diurnal thunderstorms will continue through the week with a lull in activity during the second half of the week as slightly drier air moves into the region. However, models have trended away from a more significant drying trend as the high pressure remains more stationary. This will likely result in isolated convection centered over the higher terrain Wednesday-Friday. Southwesterly winds will start to increase towards the end of the week as an upper level low pressure moves into the PNW. This will coincide with lower relative humidity to create locally critical fire weather conditions. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC... AVIATION...Mahan FIRE WEATHER...Mahan For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  279 FXUS63 KGID 241136 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 636 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few thunderstorms could clip eastern parts of the area this morning, but otherwise dry conditions are favored through today. - Thunderstorms arrive from the west this evening into tonight. The main severe threat remains over western Nebraska, but a few strong to marginally severe storms are possible (5% chance). - Thunderstorms redevelop late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Some of these storms may become severe. - There are only low chances (20%) for rain/thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday. Better chances return Thursday night, and off-and-on chances continue through the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 133 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Recent CAMs suggest that most (if not all) of convective development should remain over eastern Nebraska/Kansas this morning. Its not impossible that areas near Highway 81 see a brief shower/storm, but most of the area will remain dry during the daytime today. Plenty of sunshine this afternoon should allow for near- normal high temperatures (80s to low 90s). Convection is once again expected to develop over the Sandhills late this afternoon, and it may approach western areas this evening into tonight. Most HREF members show storms weakening as they approach central Nebraska, but the convective parameters remain favorable for at least a few strong to marginally severe storms (which the 00Z HRRR hints at). Tuesday is the primary day to watch for severe weather. A more defined upper wave will potentially allow for convective initiation much earlier in the day. Exact details remain uncertain and are somewhat dependent on how things evolve tonight. But there is potential for one or more clusters of storms of storms to move through the area in the 3pm to 10pm timeframe. Damaging wind would be the primary threat, but some marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out as well. Scattered showers/storms could linger into Tuesday night, but overall drier conditions are favored for Wednesday/Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Currently... An upper level shortwave disturbance sliding southeast across portions of the Central Plains has resulted in a damp end to the weekend for a good chunk of the forecast area today...with activity taking its sweet time pushing through eastern portions this afternoon. This disturbance is embedded in continued larger scale northwesterly flow...set up in a well amplified pattern across the CONUS. The main area of high pressure continues to sit over the Desert SW, with ridging extending northward through the Rockies...sandwiched between a large area of low pressure spinning over the Great Lakes with troughing dominating the East Coast, and another area of low pressure pushing east along the WA/Canada border. Outside of at times heavy rainfall rates, this activity hasn't amounted to a whole lot...as better instability has remained focused off to the west of the forecast area. Satellite imagery has shown the development of quite a range of cloud cover across the area...with mostly cloudy skies across the eastern half, more sun further west. This has resulted in mid-afternoon temps ranging from the mid 60s in the east to the low 80s in the far southwest...though those eastern areas still have the potential for late day highs if the cloud cover diminishes. At the surface, the forecast area sits between high pressure gradually working its way east and a deeper trough axis along the High Plains...bringing southeasterly winds this afternoon, at times gusting near 20 MPH. Tonight into Monday... For most locations, the forecast for this evening and tonight remains dry. Models continue to show the potential for at least scattered showers/storms developing late tonight (mainly around/after midnight) into the early morning hours on Monday...focused along the edge of a SSWrly low-level jet. Models remain consistent showing the best potential for this activity is across eastern portions of mainly our Nebraska counties...but vary some on just how far west coverage actually gets. Chances remain in the 20-40 percent range, with overall lift looking to be on the weaker side, currently not expecting notable coverage of activity. Not out of the question that a few storm could be on the strong side with MUCAPE potentially around 1500 j/kg, but the threat for severe weather continues to look low. Any activity that lingers into the daytime hours on Monday is expected to diminish by mid-morning...with the remainder of the day and at least part of the evening currently dry. Models showing little change in the overall upper level pattern, with the main high/ridging remaining over the Desert SW and Rockies. Forecast has lighter winds turning more easterly through the day, speeds topping out around 10-15 MPH. Expecting to have a bump up in afternoon highs, with generally mid 80s across central/eastern portions of our NE counties, with upper 80s-low 90s further south and west. Monday night into Tuesday... A little more uncertainty with preciptiation chances works its way back into the forecast late Monday evening into the overnight hours. Looking aloft, models showing that upper level low currently over WA/Canad having continued trekking ENE...ending up over south- central Canada by Monday evening. A southward extending sfc front (although on the weaker side) and shortwave energy looks to spark off afternoon thunderstorm development over portions of the Dakotas into the Sandhills...the main question then turning to how much of that activity works its way into our forecast area overnight. There are some notable differences between models...some showing little diminishment in activity as it moves in...others with notable waning with time. Made no changes to the NBM PoPs Monday night-Tuesday AM, which have a notable range from the 20 percent range in the ESE to 50-60 percent range further WNW. At this point, this activity is not expected to be severe. Some questions then linger through the daytime hours on Tuesday into evening/overnight...if activity does move in, how long into the day does it linger, and what impact could it have on the next expected round of thunderstorms to move through the region. Plenty of details to iron out in the next 48hrs...but additional shortwave energy is expected to fire off another round of thunderstorms off to our NW, but exactly where is a little uncertain at least partly due to where any sfc frontal boundaries may ultimately be/set up. There will be the potential for another MCS to sink SSE across the region...with models showing both better instability and shear developing to tap into. This will bring better potential for storms to be strong to severe...and the entire forecast area remains included in the SPC Day 3 Marginal/Slight risk areas, with the Slight risk area roughly from the Tri-Cities southwest-ward into western KS. Wednesday and on... Moving into Wednesday, the same overall pattern of ridging over the Rockies and troughing in the east holds in place with upper level northwest flow holding in place over the region. High temps stay consistent in the 80s on Wednesday and Thursday. Currently models are suggesting drier conditions on Wednesday with more storm potential beginning overnight into Thursday. However, as long as the northwest flow remains in place any shortwaves/disturbances through the pattern will bring potential for precip/storm development. Moving into Friday and the weekend, model guidance suggests a change in the upper level pattern as the ridging over the Rockies broadens into the plains creating a more zonal westerly flow, however a slight northwest component remains in place. A slight rise in the mid/upper level heights accompanies this pattern shift. With the rise in heights, a slight warming pattern occurs with high temps reaching into the mid 80s-low 90s on Friday before rising into the upper 80s-mid to upper 90s on Saturday/Sunday. While the northwest flow is not as strong, shortwaves and disturbances moving through this pattern continue to bring chances of convection, especially in the overnight hours. Models are not super consistent on which days have the best chance for storm development but the chance for storms will likely remain in place until the larger pattern breaks. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions are favored through the TAF period. A few thunderstorms could approach from the west tonight, but the probability for these to reach EAR/GRI is too low to include in this TAF. South-southeast winds decrease this afternoon and become light/variable tonight. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Mangels DISCUSSION...ADP/McGrew AVIATION...Mangels  286 FXUS63 KICT 241136 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 636 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms possible overnight into this morning, along with locally heavy rain. - Another chance of thunderstorms late Tuesday through Tuesday night. - Periodic low chances for thunderstorms Wednesday night, and then again Friday night through at least Sunday night. - Near to slightly above average temperatures the next several days, turning solidly above average by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 207 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES: EARLY THIS MORNING...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the predawn hours and persist into this morning, mainly along/east of I-135, within a zone of strengthening 850-700mb warm/moist advection. Adequate elevated instability amidst decent directional effective shear may support a handful of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms capable of dime-quarter size hail. The potential for higher-end severe hail will likely be hampered by higher cloud bases limiting buoyancy and effective shear. Additionally, the potential for numerous/training storms may support locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding concerns. All activity will likely exit to the southeast by midday. LATE TUESDAY--TUESDAY NIGHT...A weak cold front approaching from the northwest should support increasing chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. A seasonable buoyancy/shear combination along with decent downdraft CAPE may support a few strong to severe thunderstorms, especially along/northwest of the KS Turnpike. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Additional shortwave energy dropping south across the Upper Mississippi Valley may support low thunderstorm chances getting into central KS Wednesday night, but thinking most of this activity should remain west-northwest of the forecast area. FRIDAY NIGHT--SUNDAY NIGHT...The upper ridge should finally start shifting east from the southwest to the south-central CONUS toward the weekend, as shortwave energy tracks across the northern CONUS and southern Canada. This should allow a cold front to slowly approach from the north, with low thunderstorms chances over mainly the northern half of KS this weekend. TEMPERATURES: With northwest flow aloft persisting across the region, near to slightly above average temperatures are expected through late week, with forecast highs mostly in the upper 80s through mid-90s, warmest over southern Kansas. As we head toward late this week and the weekend, the stout upper ridge should shift east from the southwest CONUS to the south-central CONUS, supporting a warming trend over the weekend into at least early next week. Could be looking at another round of widespread 100s, although at least dewpoints should be lower and south-southwest winds on the breezy side. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will persist across eastern Kansas through about mid to late morning today. The strongest activity will be capable of pea to dime size hail, gusty winds, and heavy rain. CNU is the only TAF site that will be impacted by this activity. Once this activity clears to the east-southeast, quiet VFR conditions should prevail at all TAF sites through the next 24 hours. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...ADK  300 FXUS64 KLCH 241137 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 637 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect again today from 11 AM until 8 PM. Afternoon highs will again flirt with or exceed 100 degrees with maximum apparent temperatures ranging from 107 to 115. Temperatures will remain above normal through Wednesday before returning nearer to normal through the second half of the week. - Scattered (30-60%) thunderstorms will develop in the vicinity of the Atchafalaya basin this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. Precipitation chances will be lower across southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. - Precipitation chances will increase (50-80%) area wide Thursday and Friday with scattered (30-50%) thunderstorms expected each afternoon next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Afternoon highs Sunday fell a few degrees short of records, but still maxed out 5-10 degrees above climatological normals a persistent upper level ridge remains centered over the south central CONUS. Temperatures at this hour remain in the low to mid 80s everywhere that wasn't fortunate enough to see the few afternoon thunderstorms that managed to develop. Lows will struggle to fall below 80 with consistent dewpoints in the upper 70s. No changes were made to the previously issued heat advisory which will again be in effect from 11 AM until 8 PM today. Maximum heat indices will range from 107-115 with the most intense heat expected across southeast Texas where the ridging will be stronger limiting convection and cloud cover. Deeper moisture wrapping around the eastern periphery of the aforementioned ridge will offer somewhat higher (30-60%) precipitation chances in the vicinity of the Atchafalaya basin late this afternoon into this evening. Height falls from a trough extending across much of the eastern U.S. may provide some weak synoptic lifting to aid in convective development, but the vast majority of energy will come from strong instability from another day of afternoon highs near triple digits. SPC has highlighted south central and southeast Louisiana in a slight risk for severe weather Monday afternoon with the only real hazard being damaging straight line winds from collapsing storm cores. Some small hail also cannot be ruled out. A similar setup is expected both Tuesday and Wednesday as better moisture and weak troughing will offer better (40-70%) precipitation chances across Acadiana and into southeast Louisiana with more limited (20-30%) chances across southwest Louisiana and virtually none across southeast Texas. Guidance has been in consistent agreement on the "heat dome" ridge finally beginning to retrograde west Thursday becoming centered near the four corners region. With it's retreat, higher moisture and broader troughing along with a weak surface boundary will move into the region providing the first high (50-80%) chance of precipitation the area has seen in some time. The better upper level support may allow storms to continue Thursday night into Friday with continued afternoon storms through next weekend. The departure of the ridge combined with the higher convection and cloud cover will allow daily temperatures to fall back to near seasonal normals with highs in the low to mid 90s and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Jones && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 With exception to the possibility of scattered convection late this afternoon into this evening, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Precipitation chances are higher across CenLA to south CenLA, however it will not be out of the realm of possibility to see convection across SETX/SWLA. With low confidence in precip chances in the aforementioned locations, TS mentioning omitted at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Light onshore winds will persist through the week with seas ranging from 1-2 feet. Precipitation chances return across the coastal waters Thursday into next weekend as higher moisture and a weak upper level trough move into the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop each day through Wednesday with the highest probabilities in and around the Atchafalaya basin. Better precipitation chances are expected area wide Thursday through next weekend as upper level ridging breaks down. The higher precipitation chances and cloud cover will bring daily high temperatures back down into the low to mid 90s. KBDI values presently range from 530 to 750 across the region and will continue climbing as drought conditions worsen over the next couple of weeks. Daily minimum relative humidity will range from 40- 50% away from the immediate coastline through the middle of the week. Personal outdoor burning is strongly discouraged. Burn bans have been issued for most parishes and counties by local governments. Consult your local fire departments for more information. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243- 252>254. TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66 AVIATION...87  259 FXUS64 KMRX 241136 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 736 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 734 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Dry conditions with more comfortable humidity levels through Tuesday. - Shower and thunderstorm chances will return Wednesday and especially Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 114 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 In the upper levels, a deep trough remains over the East Coast as a ridge stays centered over the Rocky Mountains. Temperatures will be cooler this morning with lows in the 60s for most of the Tennessee Valley and in the 50s in Northeast Tennessee, Southwest Virginia and the higher elevations. Some patchy fog will be possible mainly near bodies of water. Today and tomorrow will be dry with low humidity as high pressure remains over the Ohio Valley. Highs will be in the 80s for most of the Tennessee Valley, sorry Chattanooga (90-92). Dew points will be pleasant in the 50s at times. Rain chances start to increase on Wednesday as a shortwave moves into the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, a stationary boundary will likely be over the Southeast U.S., bringing a chance for showers and storms Wednesday evening and into the overnight hours. Thursday afternoon will have the highest rain chances as a shortwave moves through the Ohio Valley. Friday through the weekend looks mostly dry as the trough weakens. Some afternoon showers and storms will be possible mainly near the mountains and foothills. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 734 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Patchy fog in the region not currently impacting any of the 3 major TAF sites. Fog will rapidly clear over the next hour and a half. VFR skies, dry weather, and light winds to continue underneath high pressure. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 65 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 62 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 87 62 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 56 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...McD AVIATION...Wellington  306 FXUS65 KGJT 241137 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 537 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - This week will see daily afternoon thunderstorm chances, particularly along the higher terrain of western Colorado and eastern Utah. - Localized heavy rainfall continues to pose a threat to flash flooding over burn scars and susceptible terrain. - Daytime highs will run ~5 degrees above normal to start the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1014 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 THIS WEEK: The current synoptic level setup continues to be dominated by high pressure over the west. Beginning on Monday, moisture and PWAT anomalies begin to take a downturn compared to previous days. This will mean less widespread precipitation chances for the area. However, there remains enough moisture to cause daily afternoon thunderstorm chances over the higher terrain. Orographic lift will also be a contributing factor to help enhance these mountain storm chances. Additionally, morning cloud cover has the ability to dictate where storm activity materializes as daytime heating can affect the evolution of storms. As a result of all of this, localized heavy rainfall is possible from these storms which inherently poses a threat of flash flooding, especially around burn scars and susceptible terrain. By midweek, the high gradually shifts back towards the Desert Southwest. Because of the continuous presence of moisture, each afternoon's storm chances may look similar to each other. That is, isolated to scattered and mostly confined to the higher terrain. Synoptic forcing will be somewhat weak for this period, with the occasional shortwave interrupting the flow around the high, which will provide some additional lift. So long as the surface levels remain saturated in certain places, flash flooding will remain a concern, particularly for burn scars and susceptible terrain. Primary threats with these storms continue to be localized heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty outflows. Daytime highs will start off ~5 degrees above normal to start the week, with a slight uptick to ~5-10 degrees above normal by late week. By the weekend, temperatures begin to gradually decrease each day. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 530 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 A few isolated showers with occasional lightning are tracking east across the region. Look for these to continue through the morning hours. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will redevelop over the higher terrain with some impact to the mountain TAF sites between 18Z and 00Z. Lightning, gusts to 45 kts, hail and brief heavy rain are the threats from these storms generally along and north of the I-70 corridor. These storms will diminish after about 02Z. Otherwise expect VFR conditions with generally light terrain driven winds through the TAF period. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BS AVIATION...DB  418 FXUS64 KBRO 241140 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 640 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 631 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Very hot, record to near record-breaking temperatures and rain- free conditions are expected to persist through this week. - Widespread Major (Level 3 of 4) with increasing areas of Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk is expected through this week. - Worsening drought conditions are expected to continue due to the combination of very hot temperatures, antecedent dry conditions, and very high evaporation rates. - The combination of dry fuels, lowering relative humidity values, and hot temperatures could lead to elevated fire danger risks through this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1017 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 An anomalously strong, sprawling 594-598 dam heat dome, that's resulting in a dangerous heat wave across the Southwest U.S. and Southern Plains, will continue to yield hotter than normal, record to near record-breaking temperatures over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through next weekend and for that matter through the month of August (see CLIMATE SECTION). To put into context how persistent the heat has been, Brownsville and Harlingen today recorded its 6th and 7th consecutive 100F degree day, respectively amid this strong and vast heat dome. Widespread triple digit heating including over Harlingen and Brownsville will continue through the forecast period as the aforementioned heat dome remains parked over the 4-Corners Region. Given the fact that climatologically we are in the hottest part of the year (i.e. average high temperature for McAllen is 100F degrees) and yet forecasted temperatures are projected to be 4-8F degrees hotter than the climatological peak temperatures will result in dangerously hot conditions even for the RGV's standards in the days ahead. That said, widespread Major (Level 3 of 4) with increasing areas of Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk is expected through next weekend. The combination of very hot temperatures and dry conditions will continue to result in very strong evaporation rates. This will lead to a continuation of worsening or expanding drought conditions across Deep South Texas and Rio Grande Valley during this stretch. Furthermore, wildfire concerns will also remain on the table through next weekend as relative humidity (RH) levels drop during the afternoon hours to near Fire Danger Statement (RFD) criteria on already dry fuels. Winds and RH value trends will need to be closely monitored through next weekend for the potential issuance of a Fire Danger Statement. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the TAF period. Winds are forecast to increase out of the southeast late this morning with wind gusts increasing this afternoon. Winds are forecast to become light and variable overnight at BRO and HRL with light southeasterly winds at MFE. && .MARINE... Issued at 1017 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Favorable marine conditions are expected throughout the week with low seas (1 to 2 foot wave heights) and light to moderate southeasterly winds. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1017 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A massive and strong 594-598 dam heat dome situated over the Southwest U.S. and the Southern Plains will result in record to near record-breaking temperatures during the workweek. Daytime high temperature anomalies are expected to run 4-8F degrees above normal levels during this timeframe. Below is a list of record highs from August 24-28: Monday August 24th, 2026 Brownsville: 100F in 1970 Harlingen: 102F in 2010, 1936, & 1952 McAllen: 105F in 2018 Tuesday August 25th, 2026 Brownsville: 100F in 2019 Harlingen: 103F in 1924 McAllen: 105F in 2019 Wednesday August 26th, 2026 Brownsville: 101F in 2019 Harlingen: 103F in 1924 and 1948 McAllen: 104F in 2019 and 2018 Thursday August 27th, 2026 Brownsville: 102F in 2023 Harlingen: 104F in 1948 McAllen: 105F in 2018 Friday August 28th, 2026 Brownsville: 106F in 2023 Harlingen: 106F in 2011 McAllen: 107F in 2023 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 98 80 98 80 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 102 76 102 77 / 0 0 10 0 MCALLEN 104 80 104 80 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 104 78 105 78 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 81 90 81 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 97 78 97 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...60-BE  450 FXUS65 KTFX 241142 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 542 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler, drier, and less windy conditions move in for the next couple of days, but there will be lingering gusty winds in the Milk River Valley area today. - Temperatures warm back above average and shower and thunderstorm activity increases in coverage by mid-week. - A Pacific weather system looks to bring more shower and thunderstorm activity, cooler temperatures, and gusty westerly winds this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 506 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: The closed low responsible for yesterdays wind, thunderstorms, and elevated fire weather conditions is now moving eastward into the Canadian Prairies. Cooler, drier, and less windy conditions will be left in its wake, but there will be some lingering gusty northwesterly winds over plains east of I15. These winds will be most impactful over the Milk River Valley where winds will routinely gust in the 20 to 30 mph range. Although mostly dry conditions will prevail today, subtle shortwave energy and lingering instability may bring isolated shower and thunderstorm activity to areas along the MT/ID/WY borders in far southwest MT today. There may also be some passing low and mid- level clouds along the Hi-Line on the backside of the aforementioned closed low. Ridging aloft begins to build in over the interior west for the mid- week period, but another trough approaching the Pacific NW will gradually bring an increasingly southwesterly flow aloft over the Northern Rockies. This will warm temperatures back above average and bring a slow northward expansion of scattered shower and thunderstorm activity as the week progresses. The Pacific NW trough looks to send stronger shortwaves into an environment with ML CAPE running in the 300 to 900 J/kg range and Wednesday and Thursday. These should be the busiest convective days if this set up occurs. Dry sub-cloud layers will make localized gusty winds and lightning the primary concerns with this activity. The trough eventually ejects eastward towards the Northern Rockies sometime this weekend into early next week. While there are some timing and depth discrepancies among ensemble members, the most likely scenario looks to be more scattered more shower and thunderstorm activity, cooler temperatures, and periods of gusty westerly winds. -RCG && .AVIATION... 24/12Z TAF Period Drier and less windy conditions will prevail in the wake of yesterday's frontal passage; however, there will be gusty northwesterly winds over the plains east of I15, along with scattered, mostly mid-level, clouds along the Hi-Line. KHVR looks to see the strongest winds with routine gusts over 20 kts. Shower and thunderstorm activity is generally not expected today, but there may be some convective builds or even a few showers/storms along the MT/ID/WY borders in southwest MT this afternoon and evening. Wildfire smoke, mostly from the Camp Creek Fire, will compromise slantwise visibility and may bring low VFR/MVFR visibility at times. For KGTF: Light and variable winds will increase and become northwesterly by this afternoon. There's around a 40% chance for cross winds over 15 kts, mostly between 24/17 and 24/22Z. Visibility reductions from wildfire smoke was left out of the TAF for much of the period, but there may be low VFR/MVFR visibility at times in addition to compromised slantwise visibility upon ascent/descent. - RCG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 80 52 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 76 48 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 83 53 85 56 / 0 10 10 10 BZN 82 49 84 50 / 0 10 20 10 WYS 79 40 78 40 / 0 20 30 30 DLN 84 49 84 49 / 0 20 20 20 HVR 82 51 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 78 48 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  480 FXUS66 KMTR 241143 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 443 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages persist within the marine layer through the rest of the week - Warm and dry conditions continue above 1000 feet - Pattern change Friday into the weekend brings cooler temperatures and possible tropical moisture && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 (Today and tonight) For the last couple of days we've written the tale of a battle between the eastern Pacific trough and the Desert Southwest ridge that has dominated our weather pattern. Today it's the troughing that will take the upper hand as a cutoff low inches towards the Pacific Northwest, leading to slightly cooler temperatures and cloudier mornings across the region. Another interesting factor today is a weak shortwave trough coming into the region through the morning. The two main global weather models, the European ECMWF and the American GFS, are showing that there could be enough instability, moisture, and lift to maybe, just maybe, support a few high-based thunderstorms developing across the North Bay, particularly over Napa County. This is a very low probability forecast (around 5% chance through around 11 AM), along with a low confidence for storm development. The higher resolution NAM, HRRR, and RRFS models do not show any signs of developing storms, lapse rates aloft are marginal at best, and K-Index values below 20 degrees Celsius suggest no chance for developing thunderstorms. Any precipitation that does develop is also likely to end up as virga, evaporating within the vast dry low layer where relative humidity values as of the 0Z (5 PM PDT) OAK sounding fell into the single digits. Today's highs range from the 80s into the lower 90s for the inland valleys, the middle 90s to the triple digits across the warmest interior spots, the upper 60s to the upper 70s near the Bays, and the upper 50s to the middle 60s along the Pacific coast. The higher elevations above the marine layer influence will remain rather day, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Breezy onshore pattern winds will develop this afternoon and evening with wind gusts reaching 20 to 30 mph along coastal jet regions, through favored gaps and passes, and within the northern Salinas Valley. Smoke from the Timber Fire will continue impacting the immediate area around the actively burning fire through the day, with winds aloft lofting the smoke plume over Salinas and Hollister. For air quality information, refer to products issued by the Monterey Bay Air Resources District. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 (Tuesday through Sunday) Temperatures rebound Tuesday and Wednesday as the ridge reasserts itself, with the inland valleys reaching highs in the middle 80s to the middle 90s on Wednesday and Thursday while the Bays reach the lower 70s to the lower 80s. A pattern change will begin later on Thursday as a deep trough builds into the West Coast while the ridge begins to inch its way eastwards towards the Southern Plains. It will be interesting to see what the trough will do as the upcoming weekend comes closer and we are better able to refine the forecast. Also worth a mention is the possibility of tropical moisture coming into the region, with our colleagues at the National Hurricane Center tracking Tropical Storm Iselle and three other areas of interest off the coast of Mexico. While the circulations remain far to the south of our waters, the resultant moisture will be captured by the developing trough with a wide variation in just how far north the moisture goes. By way of example, the deterministic European ECMWF model brings a swath of tropical moisture into the San Francisco Bay Area by Friday morning, whereas the deterministic GFS keeps the moisture plume to the south of Monterey County. In addition, wave models are also showing an increase in southerly swells as the tropical eastern Pacific remains active into the early part of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 423 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Mixed bag of VFR/IFR/LIFR early this morning. Status filled north into KSTS and is expected to lift by mid morning with VFR expected to prevail across the Bay Area terminals and inland South Bay airports. IFR/LIFR ceilings over Monterey Bay will give way to VFR late morning, with IFR ceilings returning before sunset. Vicinity of SFO...Low stratus lingers in vicinity of the terminals but not expected to impact ceilings with VFR expected to prevail throughout the day into the evening hours with MVFR/IFR expected to develop around midnight. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar as SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...A relatively normal diurnal cycle of IFR/LIFR ceilings expected through the forecast period, with current IFR/LIFR ceilings expected to lift by late morning and return in the early evening hours before sunset. Expect periods of breezy onshore flow in the afternoon. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 423 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Gentle northwest breezes persist today into Tuesday with slight to moderate wind driven seas. Smoke from the Timber Fire along the Big Sur coast may limit visibility down as low as two miles at times. North-northwest winds begin to increase by the middle of the week, along with an increasing long period southerly swell by the end of the week into next weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  497 FXUS61 KPBZ 241144 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 744 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Overall forecast messaging remains unchanged as the next impactful weather period is focused on Thursday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry weather is favored through Wednesday as temperature slowly rises back toward daily averages. 2) Mostly dry through Wednesday. Precipitation chances increase Thursday, with some low-end potential for severe weather depending on future model trends. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Lingering showers early this morning exit the region shortly after sunrise as the mid-level shortwave shifts east. Though cold core processes underneath the upper trough plus a weak embedded may be enough for an isolated afternoon shower north of I-80, the start of height rises with building surface high pressure favors dry weather for the rest of the day. The cooler airmass will keep high temperature around 10 degrees below the daily average. For reference, the forecasted high of 70 at the Pittsburgh International Airport would be tied for the 10th lowest high on record for the calendar day and the lowest since 1997 (68 degrees). This will be short- lived as height rises through Wednesday return readings back to the daily average. KEY MESSAGE 2... Ensemble models are in fairly high agreement that the next upper trough will sweep through the Ohio River Valley Thursday into Friday morning, creating the next round of precipitation chances. There are subtle differences in timing of showers/thunderstorms and the potential storm environment, but scenarios do exist for enough CAPE (1000+ J/kg) and shear (25-30kts) to suggest a low probability severe threat centered around damaging winds. After this wave passes, guidance does suggest another few days of dry weather under the influence of high pressure/height rises before hinting at a more active (multiple rounds of thunderstorms) pattern starting at the end of the weekend into the following week. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Fog/stratus as 12Z is mainly present in areas south of PIT, with LBE, HLG, and MGW occasionally impacted. These restrictions are expected to lift by 14Z with the onset of daytime mixing. Otherwise, VFR conditions are favored into tonight, with scattered to broken cumulus developing late this morning and continuing into the afternoon, with low probability of MVFR ceilings. Afternoon wind gusts out of the west are expected to top out between 15 and 20kts, with a low probability of touching 25kts. Outlook... Outside of localized river valley fog, VFR expected through Wednesday. The next widespread rain chances arrive Thursday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Frazier AVIATION...CL  503 FXUS64 KHUN 241144 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 644 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 736 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms exists during the middle part of this week. The primary hazard will be locally excessive rain and lightning. There is a low chance of few strong storms with gusty winds as well. && .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 354 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Northwest flow aloft of 15-25 knots will persist across the TN Valley for the duration of the near term period, as we will remain located between a strong subtropical high (centered across southern NM) and an ejecting shortwave trough (across the northeastern CONUS and adjacent portions of OT/QC). In the low- levels, a ridge of high pressure will extend from OT south- southeastward into the TN Valley, maintaining light northerly winds and a notably cooler/drier airmass than we have experienced for much of the month of August. Although a weakening vort max (currently traveling southeastward from central MO) has contributed to dense high-level clouds (and a few patches of virga) early this morning, we expect clouds to disperse rather quickly by mid-morning as the decaying disturbance progresses further southeastward and away from the region. Thus, after early morning lows in the l-m 60s (coolest across northeast AL), abundant sunshine will allow highs to once again reach the u80s-l90s. With clusters of thunderstorms (originating across the southern Plains) expected to travel south-southeastward toward the central Gulf Coast (in the vicinity of a boundary layer moisture gradient positioned well to our southwest), we will maintain a dry forecast for the rest of the day. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 736 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 NW flow will persist through mid week with higher theta-E, moisture and instability being shunted to our south and southwest through Monday into Monday night. Another pleasant day is forecast Monday with dew points staying in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90. As a shortwave drops into the lower MO Valley on Tuesday, mid level moisture will begin to edge further east into AL and middle TN. This brings a very low chance of showers Tuesday. Low levels will likely be too dry to support much precipitation. The shortwave will pivot into the mid South and TN Valley Tuesday Night into Wednesday. The models differ greatly with the strength of the wave, magnitude of the associated LLJ, and consequently the influx of theta-E and convergence. The most plausible scenario is that elevated convection, possibly in the former of MCS clusters will develop Tuesday night in MO at the nose of the LLJ. These drop into western KY, much of western and central TN and into north AL by Wednesday, followed by eventual cold front passage late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Given the uncertainty, the NBM has low to medium chance PoPs at this point. Locally heavy rainfall may become the primary risk with this event, but a few strong storms could also develop with 20-25kt of 6km bulk shear. As of now, NBM has highs in the lower 90s for most valley area, but this appears to be questionable if the morning MCS clusters arrive as the models are depicting. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 736 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The axis of an upper level trough is shown to be right over the Southeast to start the long term, with shortwaves rippling along the flow across the ArkLaMiss and into the Tennessee Valley. This trough will gradually be pushed northeast as an upper ridge over the Desert Southwest builds over the southern Plains and eastward into the Southeastthis weekend. At the surface, a boundary looks to linger over central Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia through midweek; but, another cold front is expected to push through the Tennessee Valley on Thursday. There may be a reinforcing front that swings through on Friday, but high pressure is shown to quickly build over the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and portions of the Northeast next weekend. Overall, the best chance of showers and storms will likely be Wednesday night through Thursday. Chances then decrease from late week through the weekend as drier air is filtered into the region. Guidance indicates that PWATs increase to around 2 inches late Wednesday through Thursday. While there will likely be sufficient instability with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Thursday afternoon, model bulk shear values and lapse rates have decreased since yesterday. So, confidence in stronger storms (downbursts) has also decreased; however, these trends will continue to be monitored. Regardless, showers and storms will be efficient rainfall producers. Heavy rain, especially from cells moving over the same locations repeatedly, may result in at least minor flooding issues. Ultimately, keep any eye on forecast updates this week and turn around, don't drown if you encounter flooded roads! For Friday through Sunday, rain chances are lower with continued high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 644 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 There have been no significant changes to previous aviation forecast reasoning, as it still appears as if mid/high-lvl clouds (currently in place across the region) will begin to disperse around 15Z, leaving only a sct coverage of Ci (and few Cu during the aftn). Sfc winds will diurnally back to NNW and increase to 5-10 kts later this morning, before a lgt ENE flow becomes reestablished this evening. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...70/DD SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...70/DD  710 FXUS63 KBIS 241146 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 646 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms could develop in central and eastern North Dakota this afternoon and evening. There are higher chances for storms developing in eastern North Dakota than central. - Potential hazards from severe storms this afternoon and evening include large hail up to 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds up to 70 mph, with a tornado possible in the James River Valley early this evening. - Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of western North Dakota this afternoon and early evening, and could return to far southwest parts of the state on Tuesday. - A little warmer today, then cooler and windy on Thursday. Near to slightly above average temperatures are favored from the middle of the week through the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 645 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move through the state this morning, with concentrated areas between Garrison and Minot, Rolla and Rugby, and Carrington and Cooperstown as of 645 AM CDT. The risk for severe weather is very low for the rest of the morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 520 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 A deep upper low is spinning from southern Alberta into southern Saskatchewan early this morning, with an attendant surface trough extending from the surface low over central Saskatchewan through western North Dakota. A preceding lower- amplitude shortwave is traveling along the North Dakota- Manitoba border and has been responsible for thunderstorms producing excessive rainfall, especially from around Bottineau to Rugby. Ground-truth rain amounts around 4 inches have been reported, and MRMS is estimating near 6 inches locally. As of 5 AM CDT, the threat for torrential rainfall has exited our forecast area. Farther upstream, isolated showers and storms that are likely being maintained by a plume of low level warm air advection are moving from northwest into north central North Dakota. These have mostly been benign and were beginning to rapidly diminish as of 5 AM CDT, but earlier in the night there was a rogue 58 mph wind gust at an NDAWN station near Ray. The magnitude of warm air advection is forecast to decrease later this morning, which could allow this activity to continue to dissipate. A few CAMs hint at redevelopment of weak elevated convection in northwest North Dakota later this morning, likely in response to height falls from the Saskatchewan low, but more recent CAMs have backed off on this potential. Still looking at a conditional threat for severe thunderstorms in central and eastern North Dakota along and ahead of the eastward advancing surface trough this afternoon and evening, with uncertainty rooted in whether there will be strong enough forcing to overcome CIN. The most recent suite of CAMs is more confident that convective initiation will occur at some point and time, but it may not be until closer to early evening when the frontal boundary reaches the James River Valley. The SPC has introduced a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) to the eastern third of the state, reaching as far west as the James River Valley. A discrete storm mode is favored, but splitting supercells/storm mergers could contribute to upscale growth and/or clustering of storms. CAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range and deep layer shear around 35-40 kts will be supportive of very large hail to around 2 inches in diameter. The amount of shear and high forecast DCAPE also leaves our most likely maximum wind gust forecast at 70 mph. Did elect to begin messaging a possible tornado, which would most likely be limited to the James River Valley in the early evening when and where the combination of stronger low level shear/SRH and weaker MLCIN is maximized. Today will be seasonably warm, with highs in the lower 80s to lower 90s. A much drier air mass and gusty west-northwest winds behind the surface trough will create near-critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and early evening, especially from near Williston to Bowman. The Canadian low will spin into southern Manitoba on Tuesday before diving southeast toward the western Great Lakes. This will leave cooler temperatures and windy conditions over the Northern Plains on Tuesday, with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s and northwest winds around 20 to 30 mph, gusting as high as 40 mph. RH may fall low enough in the far southwest for another afternoon of near-critical fire weather conditions on Tuesday. There could also be some diurnally-driven afternoon showers in the cyclonic flow regime on Tuesday. The NBM limits this potential to the Turtle Mountains, but some runs of the HRRR have brought isolated showers as far south as the northern James River Valley. Broad surface high pressure is forecast over the region on Wednesday as the upper level ridge re-amplifies over the Rockies. Guidance then favors the ridge axis being shoved eastward on Thursday as a deeper trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. Shortwave energy ejecting from the base of that trough brings shower and thunderstorm chances back to the region as early as Thursday night, with near-daily low to medium chances continuing through the weekend as a more progressive synoptic pattern emerges. Temperatures are favored to remain near average overall, but could trend slightly above average closer to the end of the week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 645 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 A few showers and thunderstorms remain possible across northern, central, and eastern North Dakota this morning. Later this afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms producing large hail and damaging winds could develop in the eastern half of the state. A PROB30 mention for a severe storm has been added to the KJMS TAF this evening. Outside of showers and thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds will become west to northwest in western North Dakota this afternoon around 15-20 kts, with gusts to around 30 kts in the northwest. Central North Dakota should see southerly to westerly winds remain closer to 10 kts through the day. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...Hollan AVIATION...Hollan  735 FXUS63 KLBF 241146 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 646 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are expected along a slow moving cold front today and tomorrow. Large hail will be possible with these storms, as well as potential for damaging wind gusts. - With ridging remaining in place across the Intermountain West, precipitation chances will continue Wednesday through Sunday as periodic disturbances track across the region. - Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 80s. Highs in the 90s will return to southwestern and western Nebraska Friday through Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are expected across portions of north central Nebraska early this morning, generally along and east of Highway 281. These showers and thunderstorms will largely be driven by a low level jet. As the jet weakens around daylight, expecting these showers and thunderstorms will quickly drop off. Not expecting any severe weather with the early morning convection, but with PWAT values remaining above 1.5 inches, could see some heavy rainfall with any overnight showers and thunderstorms. Throughout the day, a cold front begins to slowly track south across South Dakota, eventually tracking into Nebraska. Ahead of this, strong moisture advection remains across portions of the region, bringing dewpoints in the 60s across western Nebraska and potentially into the 70s across portions of north central Nebraska. The morning through the mid afternoon should remain a mostly quiet period, with generally clear skies. This will allow for a strong build up of instability across the region, with CAM guidance suggesting 2,000-3,000 J/kg of surface based CAPE to build across the region. While the main core of the upper level jet is expected to remain over the Dakotas, still expect around 30 knots of deep layer shear. Storms are expected to initiate along the front, and given the environment, any storm will have the potential to quickly intensify to severe thresholds. With the slower moving front, expecting that large to very large hail will be the main threat, however, there is also a threat for damaging wind gusts, especially in stronger downdrafts. Of course, with the available moisture, locally heavy rainfall will also be possible, especially with slower moving cells. While the bulk of the storm activity is expected to wind down overnight, storms may linger through the overnight hours, though generally expecting the severe threat to remain low overnight. The cold front is expected to continue its slow track across the region on Tuesday, which may initiate yet another round of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. The location of storms will largely depend on where the cold front stalls out. For now, this appears most likely across southwest Nebraska and portions of north central Nebraska. Forecast soundings suggest a fairly tall CAPE profile and marginal deep layer shear. Combined with the slow moving front, this may set up another threat for large hail Tuesday afternoon, but still cannot rule out a threat for damaging winds. As mentioned, much will depend on the location of the front, as well as how the mesoscale environment evolves through today and tonight's convection. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 A frontal boundary will sag south stalling across the southern panhandle east southeast along the Kansas/Nebraska border. Easterly flow in the low levels will lead to highs in the lower to middle 80s Wednesday. Thunderstorms look to develop Wednesday afternoon across the panhandle and southeastern Wyoming INVOF the front. This activity should track southeast with mid level northwesterly winds. ATTM, the EC, NAM12 and GFS deterministic solns have this favorable forcing over the eastern panhandle and far SW Nebraska. This is also in agreement with the latest NBM forecast. On Thursday, an upper level trough, will enter southwestern Canada suppressing the ridge across the intermountain west and forcing warmer air east onto the high plains. Favorable mid level warm air advection Thursday night and a warm front lifting northeast across the forecast area, will lead to an increased threat for thunderstorms Thursday night. By Friday, the upper level trough will track east and southeast into the Pacific NW. This will flatten the ridge further resulting in westerly mid level winds for Friday into Sunday. This flattening of the ridge will also drive warm air further east into the remainder of the forecast area. By Saturday and Sunday, highs will reach in the upper 80s in the east with lower to middle 90s in the west and southwest. Weak disturbances will cross the central Rockies Friday through Sunday with precipitation chances continuing Friday night and Saturday night. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 646 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Expect mainly clear skies this morning with increasing high level cloudiness by mid afternoon. By late afternoon, broken ceilings around 15000 FT AGL. The threat for thunderstorms will increase at both terminals from 23z to 03z Tuesday. Wind gusts up to 45 KTS along with small hail and visibilities down to 3SM are possible during this period. Conditions will improve after 04z with broken ceilings around 20000 FT AGL expected through 12z Tuesday. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Richie LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...Buttler