457 FXUS65 KPSR 241001 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 301 AM MST Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect through Saturday with daily Major to Extreme HeatRisk. - High temperatures will reach or exceed 110 degrees nearly every day this week, peaking right around daily records Tuesday through Thursday. - Monsoon storm chances for the upcoming workweek will be very limited with chances briefly coming to an end starting Tuesday before slowly returning by next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Early morning lingering showers and a few thunderstorms will gradually diminish by sunrise leaving a somewhat overturned atmosphere and slightly cooler temperatures across much of southern and central Arizona. The subtropical high, which is currently centered along the New Mexico/Texas border, is set to shift westward today into Tuesday with the center reaching western New Mexico on Tuesday. Drier air is already starting to move in from the south and this will continue through at least Tuesday, dropping low level mixing ratios to between 6-8 g/kg. This drier air in combination with increasing subsidence from the ridge will basically end rain chances beginning Tuesday. For today however, there should still be enough lingering moisture and not too high of CIN for a few isolated showers or weak storms across higher terrain areas across Arizona and southeast California. Rain chances should then fall to below 10% starting Tuesday and likely stay that way through Thursday with the ridge eventually moving directly over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico. The main forecast concern for the rest of the week will be the late August extreme heat. Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect for the majority of the area through Saturday with expectations of some expansion of the warning into higher terrain locations for the latter half of the week. The slightly rain-cooled air should keep daytime highs today mostly in a 106-110 degree range, but that will quickly change beginning Tuesday. The drying conditions and increasing heights for the middle part of the week are expected to push daytime highs well above 110 degrees. The latest NBM temperatures have trended downward over the past couple of days of runs, but with the NBM's recent track record of under doing temperatures, we have bumped highs up a degree or two. Daytime highs are likely to reach 112-116 degrees Tuesday through Thursday, potentially tying or breaking a few daily records. Very warm overnight lows are also forecast, eventually leading to fairly widespread Extreme HeatRisk by Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Ensemble guidance favors some weakening of the subtropical high starting Friday as it starts to shift back to the east. This shift assumes a Pacific trough moving into the Northwestern U.S. late week. Models also favor some gradual moisture advection by Friday and lasting through the upcoming weekend. Given the expected increase in moisture and weakening subsidence, rain chances should return as early as Friday but more likely over the weekend. NBM/WPC PoPs show 10-15% chances over high terrain areas Friday and Saturday before increasing and expanding into the lower deserts by Sunday. These PoPs may be underdone somewhat considering what the latest models runs show, so we anticipate higher PoPs soon from the NBM. Temperatures should also begin to improve late week and through the weekend as moisture increases and heights gradually lower. The latest forecast highs still maintain or even top 110 degrees through Saturday before dropping to below 110 degrees by Sunday or Monday of next week. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0550Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Gusty winds and SHRA/TSRA activity in the vicinity during the next couple of hours will be the main aviation weather concern throughout the TAF period. SHRA/TSRA activity, with the greatest concentration to the southwest of the terminals will continue through 07Z, with VCSH lingering a bit longer into the overnight period. Wind directions through at least the first part of the overnight will continue to remain erratic due to convective activity nearby before becoming light and variable to light easterly by sunrise through early Monday morning before shifting out of the west by the late morning hours. Much quieter conditions are expected on Monday with no threat of outflows/thunderstorms. SCT-BKN mid to high clouds will continue through the overnight period before coverage decreases to FEW-SCT during the day Monday. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation concerns under FEW-SCT mid/high cloud decks can be expected throughout the TAF period. Winds will generally be out of the southeast at KIPL and will fluctuate between the south- southeast to southwest at KBLH. Overall wind speeds will range between 8-15 kts, highest at KBLH. && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and seasonally dry conditions will prevail for much if not all of the coming week. Strong high pressure will settle over the region by midweek with gradual drying conditions. Minimum RHs today will mostly fall between 20-30%, before dropping back into the teens starting Tuesday. Temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees above normal, with lower desert highs eclipsing 110 degrees nearly every afternoon. Expect overall light winds following typical diurnal tendencies with some modest afternoon upslope gustiness. && .CLIMATE... Record highs: Date Phoenix Yuma El Centro ---- ------- ---- --------- Aug 24 115 in 2020 119 in 1985 117 in 1985 Aug 25 113 in 2011 116 in 1962 117 in 1962 Aug 26 117 in 2011 115 in 2020 115 in 1981 Aug 27 114 in 2023 120 in 1981 117 in 1981 Aug 28 117 in 2023 118 in 2023 117 in 2009 Aug 29 116 in 2023 117 in 1954 117 in 2005 && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ530>555-559- 560. CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ562-565>567- 569-570. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kuhlman LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...Lojero FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman CLIMATE...18/Kuhlman  787 FXUS66 KSGX 241007 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 307 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Monsoonal moisture will maintain a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms for the mountains and deserts through Tuesday. A warming trend will continue through Thursday with widespread major to extreme HeatRisk for the lower deserts, valleys, and inland Orange County. Widespread moderate or greater HeatRisk except for mountain elevations above 7000 feet is expected to continue through next Saturday. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)... There will be a warming trend through Thursday with high temperatures for today around 5 degrees above average for the mountains and deserts and 5 to 10 degrees above average for the coast and valleys. High temperatures for today will range from around 80 near the coast to the upper 90s to 106 for the Inland Empire with the lower deserts around 110. Precipitable water values will peak today and Tuesday, then decrease through next weekend. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon for the mountains and deserts. && .LONG TERM (Thursday through Sunday)... The warming trend will continue through Thursday with high temperatures on Thursday around 10 degrees above average for the mountains and deserts to 10 to 15 degrees above average for the coast and valleys. High temperatures on Thursday will range from the 80s near the coast to 105 to 110 for the Inland Empire with 112 to 116 for the lower deserts. Low temperatures on Thursday will be as much as 10 to 15 degrees above average for the mountains and inland valleys. Low temperatures for the coast and valleys will be mostly in the 70s. There could be a large number of records for warmest low temperatures tied or broken on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will gradually cool for Friday through Sunday with high temperatures for Sunday around 5 degrees above average. High temperatures on Sunday will range from around 80 near the coast to the mid 90s to 103 for the Inland Empire with 108 to 112 for the lower deserts. The HeatRisk is expected to peak on Thursday with major to extreme HeatRisk for the lower deserts, valleys, inland Orange County, and the Santa Ana Mountains with moderate to major HeatRisk elsewhere expected for the mountains above 7000 feet. && .AVIATION... 232330Z...Coast...Currently, clear skies at most coastal areas with a few clouds moving in at 600ft MSL over southern San Diego. Low clouds with bases 200-800ft MSL have a 35-55% chance of forming after 09-11Z for coastal San Diego. Vis restrictions of 1-3SM will be possible with vis less than 1 SM near higher coastal terrain. Low clouds and vis restrictions have a 20-50% chance of lingering along the immediate coast after 15Z-18Z. Otherwise...VFR conditions through the TAF period with FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20,000ft MSL. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday. && .BEACHES... A 4-5 foot southerly swell (from 170 degrees) at 13-15 seconds will move into the area Wednesday and Thursday, leading to elevated surf for the south facing beaches of northern San Diego County and Orange County. Breaking waves of 4 to 6 feet expected, sets up to 8 feet possible at beaches that face due south. Surf gradually subsides on Friday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM PDT Friday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas. Heat Advisory until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for Orange County Inland Areas-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM PDT Friday for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Orange County Inland Areas-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire- San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Friday for Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for Coachella Valley- San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...17 AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM  538 FXUS66 KPDT 241015 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 315 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Ridge of high pressure overhead will keep temperatures above seasonal normal through Wednesday 2. An upper level low approaching the region will bring increased winds Wednesday increasing fire weather concerns. && .DISCUSSION... Current night time satellite shows little to no cloud cover over the region. Looking at overnight temperatures to be inn the upper 50s to low 60s through the Basin, Gorge and along the foothills of the Blues. Elsewhere will see low 50s. Models show a ridge of high pressure building over the region today and persisting through early Wednesday bringing with it dry and above seasonal average temperatures. Looking at in house calculations, temperatures are expected to be anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal average today, increasing to near 15 degrees tomorrow and Wednesday. Looking at HeatRisk probabilities, Tuesday?wednesday will be the peak with 70-80% probabilities of areas reaching Moderate HeatRisk (level 2 of 4) across the Columbia Basin and Central OR. There is also a low to medium risk of areas in the Columbia Basin seeing Major HeatRisk (3 of 4) with 20-40% probabilities. Moderate HeatRisk affects those who are sensitive to heat, especially those without cooling/hydration, while Major HeatRisk affects anyone without cooling/hydration. Wednesday models show the upper level low off the coast of the PacNW begin to push its way onshore. By Wednesday afternoon, models show the leading edge of the low beginning to move towards the Cascades. As the leading edge of the low approaches the Cascades, short term deterministic models show a tightening of the pressure gradients along the crests. Looking at raw ensembles, there is 60-80% confidence for winds of 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph possible through the Columbia River Gorge, Kittitas Valley and along the foothills of the Blue Mountains. With the increased winds and NBM showing relative humidities being in the teens to low 20% across the region, there is elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns that could develop across the lower elevations zones (65-75%). Thursday onwards, models show the upper level low to continue to persist just to the west of the Cascades bringing persistent southwesterly flow to the region. This will keep the region under dry and breezy conditions. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. Winds will remain below 12 knots through the period. Confidence in low level smoke causing MVFR VIS concerns is low, however PSC/PDT/DLS/ALW will see a slight decrease to 6SM as the smoke settles in the morning. This will persist through 18-20Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather concerns are moderate through the forecast period as only relative humidity is low with no winds. The next day of concern for elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns will be Wednesday as an upper level low brings increased winds of 15-25 mph winds and gusts to 35 mph with relative humidities in the teens to low 20s. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 91 54 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 93 61 95 66 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 93 56 95 59 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 90 61 95 61 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 92 57 95 61 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 86 57 92 60 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 91 50 94 49 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 93 55 97 57 / 0 0 10 10 GCD 95 56 95 57 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 93 64 96 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT today for WAZ026-522-523. OR...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT today for ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>507-509>511. && $$ DISCUSSION...90 AVIATION...90 FIRE WEATHER...90  684 FXUS62 KFFC 241018 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 618 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New 12Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry for North Georgia and low chances for thunderstorms across parts of south-Central Georgia through Tuesday. - Coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected to increase by mid-to-late week as a front approaches. - Seasonal temperatures are largely expected through the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Limited rain chances and fairly comfortable temperatures can be expected for North and Central Georgia through Tuesday. The axis of a deep upper trough continues to dig southeastward towards the Atlantic Coastline and has led to the return of NW upper flow across the area. At the surface, a frontal boundary is draped across south- central Georgia and is expected to slowly sag southward into North Florida. Thus, any rain and thunderstorm chances will be limited and confined to areas south of the frontal boundary -- south of a line from Columbus to Swainsboro. These chances will be even less on Tuesday as the front pushes into North Florida. Most locations are expected to remain dry through Tuesday with some passing mid to high level clouds each day. Daytime temperatures in the 90s (80s in the mountains) combined with relative humidity in the 30-40% range each day will make it feel quite pleasant outside. Be sure to enjoy it while you can! && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 After a drier and more pleasant early week, moisture will be increasing ahead of an approaching cold front by midweek. Dewpoints will surge back toward the 70s by Wednesday into Thursday. PoPs will initially begin to increase by late Wednesday as a shortwave disturbance initiates thunderstorm development to our west/northwest that could approach the area by Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. The most substantial increase in PoPs will be by Thursday, however, as the aforementioned front pushes into the area, lingering into late week. With PWATs surging back over 2" in advance of the front, locally heavy rainfall could be a concern during this time. As far as temperatures are concerned, 60s will remain abundant for morning lows for much of north Georgia through the bulk of the period. Highs will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s, within a few degrees of seasonal normals for the most part. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR expected at all sites through the period. Lingering high cirrus this morning with FEW to SCT Cu 5-7kft through the afternoon. Light vrb wind will increase to 5-8kts by 17z favoring the NNW to NNE direction. Iso shra/tsra should stay south of CSG/MCN Monday afternoon and no impacts are expected. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... High confidence on all elements. 07 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 92 66 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 92 69 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 84 61 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 91 64 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 94 72 94 72 / 10 0 10 10 Gainesville 90 65 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 94 70 94 71 / 0 0 10 10 Rome 91 64 92 66 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 92 67 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 95 72 94 72 / 30 10 40 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...07  696 FXUS64 KOHX 241019 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 519 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 513 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Look for dry, cooler evening and overnight periods through Tuesday morning. Fog is possible across the river valleys each morning. - Low to medium rain and storm chances return Wednesday and Wednesday night, then taper off on Thursday. But no hazardous weather is expected at this time. - Temperatures from Wednesday through the weekend will stay close to seasonal norms, then perhaps a little warmer to start off next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 513 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Satellite continues to show patchy fog near bodies of water again this morning, some of which could be dense at times. Not widespread enough for an advisory, but worth mentioning. We've got another fantastic day on tap with near normal temperatures and dew points in the upper 50s and low 60s. Rain and storms still being shown to return on Wednesday. Forecast soundings are on the edge of starting to mention the outside potential for a strong storm or two. Will discuss this more with the full forecast package later this morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday Night) Issued at 953 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Temperatures are cooling off quite nicely this evening and low dew points are allowing for excellent radiation cooling across Middle Tennessee. We've got couple of cool nights in store, along with non-existent rain chances the next couple of days. This evening, high pressure centered over the upper midwest is keeping the air mass over Middle Tennessee dry and a little cooler than seasonal norms, while we remain underneath a northwest flow aloft with ridging situated to our west. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 953 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Our next rain chances start to develop on Wednesday as a surface low comes together over the Arklatex and develops a boundary across the Gulf Coast states and into the Tennessee Valley. It's not a lot to work with, but we do introduce low to medium PoPs Wednesday and Wednesday night, with rain chances tapering off on Thursday as the system pulls off to the east. Although there will be some storm chances, QPF values are somewhat anemic, and we certainly aren't outlooked for any severe storms for the foreseeable future. Temperatures will warm up to seasonal values by Wednesday, with readings staying close to seasonal norms through the weekend, then warming up a bit to start off next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions with light winds expected throughout this cycle. The only exception should be MVFR vis at SRB prior to 12Z/Mon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 89 62 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 87 61 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 82 58 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 90 63 91 65 / 0 0 0 10 Cookeville 83 60 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 82 58 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 88 62 90 64 / 0 0 0 10 Murfreesboro 89 62 91 64 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 88 64 89 65 / 0 0 0 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Unger SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Unger  719 FXUS62 KRAH 241020 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 620 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * There is a Marginal to Slight Risk of severe storms over Sampson, Cumberland, and Wayne Counties this afternoon and early evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 206 AM Monday... 1) There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon to early evening along and east of the I-95 corridor. 2) Diurnally maximized convection returns to central NC as early as Wednesday, but more likely Thursday into Friday before shifting towards the coast through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 206 AM Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1... There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon to early evening along and east of the I-95 corridor. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a weak surface low developing over central SC, with a stalled cold front extending from the NC Coastal Plain into central SC. Dynamic guidance indicates the surface low will track east- northeast today into the Sandhills and central/southern Coastal Plain. As it does, the stalled front is expected to buckle westward, potentially reaching as far west as the Wake/Johnston county line. A sharp moisture gradient remains across the state: the 00z MHX sounding highlighted a very moist airmass over eastern NC, contrasted with much drier air at GSO (PWAT of ~0.85 inches). Surface dewpoints in the mid-70s along the coast underscore the high moisture content east of the boundary. An enhanced seabreeze interaction with the front and surface low will serve as the primary trigger for convective initiation, with resultant outflows likely driving secondary cell development. Spatial Focus & Model Guidance: The highest storm coverage is expected along and east of I-95, extending from the eastern Sandhills into the Coastal Plain. Most CAMs keep convective activity concentrated over the southern Coastal Plain (primarily Sampson and Wayne Counties). However, the RRFS represents a reasonable worst-case scenario, bringing convection as far west as the Harnett/Cumberland county line. While model spread leaves some uncertainty regarding exact western extent, the thermodynamic environment along and east of I-95 will easily support severe storms, characterized by MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg (highest in Sampson County) and 30 kts of deep-layer shear. Should storms initiate further north near RWI, effective shear could reach ~40 kts under the influence of an upper-level jet streak. Hazards: SPC expanded the Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms, focused mainly over Sampson and Wayne Counties. The primary hazard will be locally damaging wind gusts, although a secondary hail threat is also possible given straight hodographs. SPC has also maintained a 2-percent tornado risk, where a Slight Risk of severe now exists over far southern Sampson; given weak bulk low-level shear, any brief tornado threat would be strictly non- supercellular, tied to localized low-level vorticity stretching along the surface low/boundary. Should 12z guidance and AI model trends continue shifting westward, further expansion of the severe risk westward may become necessary. Drier, more comfortable conditions are expected Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the north. Lower dewpoints will maintain comfortable humidity levels across central NC. Isolated storm development will be largely suppressed, restricted to the sea breeze over Sampson or Cumberland counties. The aggressive HRRR solution was discounted in favor of global model consensus, which depicts a sufficiently stable airmass to prevent widespread activity. KEY MESSAGE 2... Diurnally maximized convection returns to central NC as early as Wednesday, but more likely Thursday intoFriday before shifting towards the coast through the weekend. A closed mid/upper level low over southern Quebec Tues morning will continue to slowly pivot east-northeast as another series of shortwaves parade across Great Lakes and southern Ontario through Fri. Moisture returns in the low lvls as early as Wed, with deeper moisture return on Thurs, although rich tropical moisture appears limited in duration as the mid/upper level flow turns west-northwest again over the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas by this weekend. Nevertheless, this should support diurnally driven convection as surface dew points in the 70s return and PWAT values rise back to around or slightly-above normal into the weekend. There may be some mixing out of dew points each afternoon, especially over the Piedmont back into the 60s which may limit the moderate instability to the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Thurs still appears to have the best chance for measurable precipitation with neutral H5 height tendencies and potential influence from any MCV's from upstream convection over the Ohio and Tennessee Valley's. Reasonable high-end totals for any given area will be around 1" to as much as +2" based on the 12z LREF. However, these amounts will not occur everywhere, as is the nature of summertime convection, with most locations likely to receive somewhere between trace amounts to 0.5". Slow evolving longwave troughing to the west will favor southwesterly moisture transport over the area as early as Wed and continuing into Thurs night. This pattern could be conditionally favorable for excessive rainfall anywhere but highly dependent on training storms to develop. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 620 AM Monday... VFR conditions will generally prevail across central NC terminals through the period, with the primary exception being KFAY. As a surface low tracks northward along a stalled front in eastern NC this morning, isolated showers and a storm may be possible until 13z at KFAY. However, most of the storms on radar presently should exit the terminal by 12z. However, additional convection is possible this afternoon. This afternoon into the early evening, the surface low tracking northeast combined with a westward-buckling front and sea-breeze will bring a chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms near KFAY. While the RRFS/HRRR/FV3 show convection reaching near KFAY, the majority of CAM guidance keeps activity just east of the terminal, justifying a low-end PROB30. Isolated storms are also possible near KRWI, but confidence remains too low to introduce terminal restrictions. Outlook: Morning stratus and fog potential will be possible at KFAY/KRWI Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Convective coverage will increase midweek, peaking Thursday and Friday, with impacts potentially lingering into early Saturday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kren/Swiggett AVIATION...Kren  746 FXUS62 KTAE 241020 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 620 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 619 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Another hot day is expected with hazardous heat focusing the most over parts of the Eastern FL Panhandle and Central Big Bend. A Heat Advisory will go into effect for several counties in that region - 12PM EDT/11AM CDT to 7PM EDT/6PM CDT. - Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms appear likely Monday and Tuesday. Isolated damaging gusts are the primary concerns. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) by the Storm Prediction Center is in place nearly areawide. - The rest of the work week will be monitored for storm activity diving in from the northwest amidst otherwise typical summertime pattern of seasonable hot daytime temperatures and diurnally driven convection. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 The main concerns for today are another round of hazardous heat and better overall convective coverage. The culprits are a strong, broad upper anticyclone over the Southern Plains and lingering frontal boundary analyzed across Central MS/AL/GA. Strong ridging to our west, 850-mb temperatures about 19C and 70+ dew points yields widespread high temperatures around the mid 90s and triple-digit heat indices. The latter ranges from 108-112 degrees over parts of the Eastern FL Panhandle and Central Big Bend where a Heat Advisory has been issued - 12PM EDT/11AM CDT to 7PM EDT/6PM CDT. Tonight's lows drop to the low 70s away from the immediate coast. Yesterday's convection was fairly limited thanks to relatively dry air in the absence of significant forcing. However, the airmass appears a bit more moist this morning with satellite- derived precipitable water in the 1.6-1.9" range. A notable dry mid-level layer will be contributing to DCAPE at or above 1000 J/kg amidst high CAPE from strong diurnal heating. Toss in the front draped across the region and we are poised to see robust afternoon thunderstorms capable of strong-damaging gusts, frequent lightning, locally heavy rain, and perhaps small to medium-sized hail. We will also need to monitor a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) that is forecast to dive south in the Lower MS Valley from the NW. Most guidance keeps this feature to our west, but any eastward deviation can have implications for us. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms appears likely on Tuesday for similar reasons described in the short-term section. The large-scale pattern through the remainder of the work week will feature persistent ridging to our west and troughing to our north. This synoptic set up places us in NW flow aloft, which means we will be closely monitoring the upstream environment for any disturbances aloft capable of producing SE moving MCS'. Otherwise, expect a more typical summertime regime consisting of seasonable high temperatures in the low 90s (but mostly below advisory level heat indices), warm overnight lows in the low/mid 70s, and diurnally driven convection forced by the seabreeze and subsequent outflow boundary collisions. By this weekend, subtropical ridging builds across the region with an inverted trough or two attempting to cross the FL Peninsula from the Atlantic. These features would yield slightly hotter temperatures (perhaps returning advisory level heat) and the best rain chances across the Eastern FL Big Bend, South- Central GA, and the Suwannee Valley. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions are forecast to prevail with a light to moderate westerly to southwesterly breeze outside of any convection. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast to blossom this afternoon into the early evening, with slightly higher confidence in storms impacting KTLH and KVLD, so have maintained the TEMPO groups there with PROB30s elsewhere. && .MARINE... Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Light to gentle southwest breezes prevail the next few days thanks to persistent surface high pressure over the Central Gulf. The main marine threats are thunderstorms capable of strong, gusty winds, frequent lightning, potential waterspouts, and reduced visibility from heavy rain. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 The main fire concerns are hazardous heat in portions of the Eastern FL Panhandle and Central Big Bend (including the Apalachicola Nat'l Forest) today and daily chances for afternoon thunderstorms. The latter will be capable of strong to isolated damaging gusts, frequent lightning, and locally wetting rains. Gusty/erratic winds are also possible away from thunderstorms from outflow boundaries and the seabreeze. West to SW winds prevail outside of convection. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Daily thunderstorms will be capable of producing localized nuisance or flash flooding in urban, poor-drainage, and low-lying areas. Otherwise, there are no significant hydrological concerns the next several days. All area rivers are currently running well below action stage. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 96 75 92 74 / 70 20 70 20 Panama City 93 77 90 76 / 20 40 60 40 Dothan 95 73 93 73 / 40 20 60 10 Albany 96 74 95 74 / 30 10 50 10 Valdosta 95 74 94 73 / 70 20 60 30 Cross City 94 75 91 74 / 40 30 70 30 Apalachicola 92 78 89 77 / 30 40 70 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ012>016-027-112-114-115-127-326- 426. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...IG3 LONG TERM....IG3 AVIATION...Reese MARINE...IG3 FIRE WEATHER...IG3 HYDROLOGY...IG3  738 FXUS63 KBIS 241020 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 520 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms could develop in central and eastern North Dakota this afternoon and evening. There are higher chances for storms developing in eastern North Dakota than central. - Potential hazards from severe storms this afternoon and evening include large hail up to 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds up to 70 mph, with a tornado possible in the James River Valley early this evening. - Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of western North Dakota this afternoon and early evening, and could return to far southwest parts of the state on Tuesday. - A little warmer today, then cooler and windy on Thursday. Near to slightly above average temperatures are favored from the middle of the week through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 520 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 A deep upper low is spinning from southern Alberta into southern Saskatchewan early this morning, with an attendant surface trough extending from the surface low over central Saskatchewan through western North Dakota. A preceding lower- amplitude shortwave is traveling along the North Dakota- Manitoba border and has been responsible for thunderstorms producing excessive rainfall, especially from around Bottineau to Rugby. Ground-truth rain amounts around 4 inches have been reported, and MRMS is estimating near 6 inches locally. As of 5 AM CDT, the threat for torrential rainfall has exited our forecast area. Farther upstream, isolated showers and storms that are likely being maintained by a plume of low level warm air advection are moving from northwest into north central North Dakota. These have mostly been benign and were beginning to rapidly diminish as of 5 AM CDT, but earlier in the night there was a rogue 58 mph wind gust at an NDAWN station near Ray. The magnitude of warm air advection is forecast to decrease later this morning, which could allow this activity to continue to dissipate. A few CAMs hint at redevelopment of weak elevated convection in northwest North Dakota later this morning, likely in response to height falls from the Saskatchewan low, but more recent CAMs have backed off on this potential. Still looking at a conditional threat for severe thunderstorms in central and eastern North Dakota along and ahead of the eastward advancing surface trough this afternoon and evening, with uncertainty rooted in whether there will be strong enough forcing to overcome CIN. The most recent suite of CAMs is more confident that convective initiation will occur at some point and time, but it may not be until closer to early evening when the frontal boundary reaches the James River Valley. The SPC has introduced a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) to the eastern third of the state, reaching as far west as the James River Valley. A discrete storm mode is favored, but splitting supercells/storm mergers could contribute to upscale growth and/or clustering of storms. CAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range and deep layer shear around 35-40 kts will be supportive of very large hail to around 2 inches in diameter. The amount of shear and high forecast DCAPE also leaves our most likely maximum wind gust forecast at 70 mph. Did elect to begin messaging a possible tornado, which would most likely be limited to the James River Valley in the early evening when and where the combination of stronger low level shear/SRH and weaker MLCIN is maximized. Today will be seasonably warm, with highs in the lower 80s to lower 90s. A much drier air mass and gusty west-northwest winds behind the surface trough will create near-critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and early evening, especially from near Williston to Bowman. The Canadian low will spin into southern Manitoba on Tuesday before diving southeast toward the western Great Lakes. This will leave cooler temperatures and windy conditions over the Northern Plains on Tuesday, with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s and northwest winds around 20 to 30 mph, gusting as high as 40 mph. RH may fall low enough in the far southwest for another afternoon of near-critical fire weather conditions on Tuesday. There could also be some diurnally-driven afternoon showers in the cyclonic flow regime on Tuesday. The NBM limits this potential to the Turtle Mountains, but some runs of the HRRR have brought isolated showers as far south as the northern James River Valley. Broad surface high pressure is forecast over the region on Wednesday as the upper level ridge re-amplifies over the Rockies. Guidance then favors the ridge axis being shoved eastward on Thursday as a deeper trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. Shortwave energy ejecting from the base of that trough brings shower and thunderstorm chances back to the region as early as Thursday night, with near-daily low to medium chances continuing through the weekend as a more progressive synoptic pattern emerges. Temperatures are favored to remain near average overall, but could trend slightly above average closer to the end of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 520 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 A few showers and thunderstorms remain possible across northwest and north central North Dakota this morning, but stronger storms producing torrential rainfall are no longer expected. Later this afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms could develop in the eastern half of the state. The probability of TS at KJMS is too low to include in the TAF at this time. Outside of showers and thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds will become west to northwest in western North Dakota this afternoon around 15-20 kts, with gusts to around 30 kts in the northwest. Central North Dakota should see westerly winds remain closer to 10 kts through the day. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hollan AVIATION...Hollan  730 FXUS63 KLMK 241020 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 620 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry and pleasant conditions are expected to continue through Wednesday morning. * Warmer temperatures (upper 80s) and chances for showers and storms return Wednesday and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 311 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Calm winds and clear skies has allowed for river valley fog to develop this morning. As the sun rises, fog will begin to burn off. High pressure at the surface and northwesterly flow aloft will continue to be the main features over the region through Wednesday morning. Looking to see lows in the upper 50s and low 60s and highs in the low to mid 80s. These below normal temperatures, coupled with dew points in the 50s, will keep conditions quite comfortable to start the week. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 311 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Moving into Wednesday, ridging over the western CONUS will broaden and approach the mid-Mississippi Valley region. This will increase temperatures back to near normal in the upper 80s. At the surface, high pressure will push off to the east and a warm front will move into the lower Ohio Valley. This front will bring increased moisture and lift to broad upper troughing. Looking to see isolated to scattered chances for showers and storms on Wednesday over southern and central Kentucky. Forecast soundings show PWATs around 1.7-1.8 inches, weak shear, and ample instability Wednesday afternoon. Though, mid-level lapse rates look poor. Given this environment, we could see a strong pulse storm or two, but severe weather is not expected at this time. On Thursday, a shortwave will swing through the Great Lakes region and bring a weak cold front through the Ohio Valley. Current timing of the front is Thursday into Friday. Given the antecedent environment, would expected to see scattered showers and storms along and ahead of the cold front. Behind the cold front, we will see drier air move into the region. Though, temperatures look to remain in the upper 80s for Friday. Moving into the weekend, ridging looks to broaden over the southern CONUS, which will lead to increased heights over the lower Ohio Valley and increased temperatures into the low 90s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 619 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions are expected to continue through this TAF cycle. FEW- SCT clouds around 5kft continue to stream over the region this morning. Some light fog will be possible over the region for the next 2 hours. By mid morning, winds will pick up out of the northwest around 6kts. A thin Cu field around 5kft will be possible in the afternoon. In the evening, skies will clear and winds will become light. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRW LONG TERM...SRW AVIATION...SRW  820 FXUS63 KDDC 241022 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 522 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures around 100 degrees to start the workweek - Best opportunity for rain will be Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with 40-50% probability of locations along and west of highway 283 receiving 0.25 inch or more of rainfall - Storms Tuesday night have a slight risk of severe weather from SPC with wind as the greatest threat - Cooling trend for midweek followed by the return of 100 degree temperatures this weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 05Z synopsis shows spotty showers and storms located from the Colorado border to near Liberal as a 500-700 mb shortwave is moving into western Kansas due to northwest flow aloft. Short term models have the upper level wave, cloud cover, and any rain exiting the region by mid morning. Winds throughout the day should be light with a looser pressure gradient across western Kansas. By late afternoon hotter air from the southwest should arrive into far western Kansas and with ample sunshine NBM probabilities of hitting 100 degrees are at 40% for areas along and south of highway 160. With continued northwest flow in the mid levels another 500-700 mb shortwave will develop in the front range in the late afternoon triggering convection. With the upper level high breaking down to the southwest this should allow the convection to reach into western Kansas after sunset and the storms will decay as they move eastward through the night. Tuesday the day should start off with residual cloud cover in the morning as the shortwave moves onto the east and more easterly surface winds. This will keep temperatures at bay through the morning but by afternoon with the return of sunshine and southerly winds we should see the return of mid 90s. By mid to late afternoon short term models have a stout mid level shortwave coming from southern Nebraska into north central Kansas. We could see storm development as early as 4 pm in our eastern zones. Another front range shortwave should trigger a line of convection in eastern Colorado and move into western Kansas during the overnight hours. POP has increased with the newest model guidance to 50-80%. NBM probabilities continue to show a 40-50% chance of at least 0.25 inch of precipitation west of highway 283 suggesting this round of storms will have better lift and more moisture to work with. MUCAPE values from various models Wednesday morning are in the 2000-3000 range and skew t soundings suggest elevated convection with not much bulk shear which would lead to mainly a wind threat and localized heavier rainfall with the stronger storms. The persistent weather pattern continues into Wednesday night as medium range models show another late night shortwave passing through Kansas giving much of western Kansas another decent shot of rain with POPs in the 40-50% range. The repeated opportunities for rain along with the upper high departing slightly westward should allow highs to be slightly cooler mid to late week with highs in the lower 90s. Long term ensembles have the upper high moving back to the east during the weekend allowing a higher probability of hotter weather to return. NBM probabilities of 100 degree highs are back into the 40-90% range for much of western Kansas for Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 522 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions will prevail today with mostly clear skies. Winds will be light and variable this morning becoming easterly this afternoon. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tatro AVIATION...Hovorka_42  882 FXUS62 KGSP 241025 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 625 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The aviation discussion was updated for the upcoming 12Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dry weather with comfortable humidity levels will continue through Tuesday. Then humidity increases along with daily shower and thunderstorm chances returning Wednesday and continuing through the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Dry weather with comfortable humidity levels will continue through Tuesday. Then humidity increases along with daily shower and thunderstorm chances returning Wednesday and continuing through the rest of the week. The upper pattern currently consists of a large anticyclone over New Mexico and an upper low over the eastern Great Lakes. Dry sfc high pressure will continue to nose in under the NWLY flow between these features today. The upper low will begin to shift east, allowing flow across the Southeast to flatten out Tuesday. No appreciable change in the air mass is expected thru Tuesday, with dewpts mixing out into the 50s to lower 60s under sunny or mostly sunny skies. No mentionable PoPs in the forecast thru Tuesday. Highs will be near normal. Overnight lows will be slightly below normal, given the lower dewpts and good radiational cooling conditions. A shortwave trough will dig into the Midwest on Wednesday and back the low- and mid-level flow out of the SW. A warm front will activate across the Deep South and start lifting northward, pushing into the forecast area by early Wednesday evening. This will likely trigger convection, as guidance is in good agreement on dewpts in the mid 60s to lower 70s along/south of the boundary, with at least 1000-2000 J/kg of sbCAPE. So expect a return of showers and thunderstorms in the late aftn and evening, roughly from south to north across the forecast area. Convection may linger well into the night, if there is enough instability along the advancing front. The upper trough reaches its highest amplitude on Thursday, with its axis still just west of the Appalachians. This will likely result in continued moist SWLY flow and an active convective day Thursday. There is some uncertainty on when the peak activity will occur, as widespread cloud cover may delay destabilization until later in the day. The NBM still has likely PoPs across the Piedmont and categorical PoPs in the mountains. From there, the pattern starts to flatten out again, but lingering upper-level troughiness is shown in the guidance over the eastern CONUS thru the weekend. So, expect typical diurnal PoPs to continue each day thru the end of the period. Other than Thursday, with the cloud cover and precip coverage, holding temps down, temps will be near to slightly above normal, with some guidance trending toward hotter conditions possibly returning Sunday into Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR expected across the area thru the period, except for some mountain valley fog early this morning, but now looks to avoid KAVL. Some cirrus lingers through the day with periods of areas of high-based Cu. Light wind across the Piedmont sites, and rather VRB, favoring a N/NW direction for most of the period, but toggling to W this aftn in the Upstate and at KHKY. N winds pick up with a few low-end gusts possible at KAVL late aftn. Guidance is not showing much fog potential at KAVL tonight, so will leave out any mention with the 12z TAF. Outlook: No significant chance of convection until Wednesday with an even better chance Thursday into Friday. Mountain valley fog and low stratus is possible each morning. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ ARK  961 FXUS64 KMAF 241027 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 527 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 526 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Hot temperatures continue through midweek with record heat possible on Monday. - The prolonged period of hot temperatures could result in heat related illnesses. Be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in air conditioning or the shade if possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 115 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 We will reach the peak of this heatwave today as the upper high centers directly over the region. Model guidance continues to be a bit high given 850 mb temps of 30-34C. With that said, it will still be dangerously hot with almost all locations above 100 degrees. The warmest temperatures will occur across the NE Permian Basin and along the Pecos River where highs will be 105-109 degrees. The Heat Advisory was expanded to include most of the Permian Basin and all of SE NM. The record high temperature for today at Midland is 103 degrees, which was set in 1936 and there is a good chance we will at least tie, if not break that record. Very little changes Tuesday as the upper ridge slowly begins to slide west. Temperatures may come down a degree, but we will be at day 8 in a row of 100 degree temperatures so the heat is really wearing down folks. Heat Advisories are likely to be extended given this concern. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 115 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 The upper ridge continues to shift west and centers over the AZ/NM state line by Wednesday. This will place our region in NW flow aloft and open the door for thunderstorms to move off the NM mountains and into our area late in the day. Scattered storms are again possible Thursday before the ridge moves back overhead and subsidence increases. Hot conditions will continue, but highs look to stay just under 100 for most locations Thursday/Friday. Hotter conditions return for the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 526 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR prevails through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 106 75 105 75 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 106 73 104 73 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 104 73 103 74 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 103 72 102 73 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 96 70 96 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 104 71 103 71 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 97 62 97 62 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 103 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 103 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 105 74 104 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for Andrews-Borden-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Martin- Midland-Mitchell-Scurry-Winkler. NM...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...29  985 FXUS61 KGYX 241028 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 628 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Very little change to the going forecast early this morning. The fog should lift by around 9 am. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A cold front gradually moves through during the day today as an upper level low remains in the Great Lakes region. 2. The next chance of widespread rain comes late in the week, bookended by periods of dry weather through midweek and over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A cold front extending from a cut off low in the Great Lakes moves through during the daytime today. This brings the chance for a strong thunderstorm across the north near the Canadian border this afternoon before the front pushes off to the northeast. Elsewhere, scattered showers and a thunderstorm are possible, but overall a drying trend is expected through the day behind the front. Highs generally warm into the 70s to near 80s with sunshine returning. Despite the front passing, the chance for scattered showers and storms lingers as the cut off low in the Great Lakes takes a few more days to slowly progress eastward through southern Canada. So while the overall trend is drier, showers remain possible through Tuesday. Cooler temperatures return tonight with the drier airmass in place. Lows range from the mid 50s along the coast, to the upper 40s through the northern valleys. A stray shower can't ruled out during the overnight hours still. Seasonable temps return on Tuesday again, with highs mainly in the 70s to near 80 degrees. Early morning fog, locally dense, is likely. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Upper-level low finally fully ejects out of the region by Wednesday. Brief ridging Wed-early Thu should bring tranquil conditions with comfortable dew points persisting and seasonable temperatures. As we head deeper into Thursday, southerly flow returns out ahead of the next trough, which will advect a more humid airmass back into the region. A surface low closes off over Hudson Bay, sending a cold front through our region Friday night. Guidance indicates precipitation chances Thursday afternoon/evening primarily in interior zones away from the coast. There will be another chance on Friday with the actual front that looks more widespread as of now. Nothing noteworthy for rainfall at the moment, but long range models do already have a 30 to 50% chance for rainfall exceeding a half inch. At first glance QPF is scattered, indicating a more convective precip distribution is possible. Should see good moisture return with dew points reaching the upper 60s, which will provide the necessary juice for locally heavy downpours. First stab at next weekend suggests it could be a pleasant one with drying westerly flow behind the cold front, ushering in comfortable dew points in the 40s/50s. It will be a wait and see to know for sure though, as some guidance suggests the cold front may get hung up near the Southern New England coast. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Marine fog and low stratus keeps IFR to LIFR conditions at most sites until a cold front passes through. A return to VFR behind the front is expected from western sites in the early morning, to late morning for eastern sites. A scattered shower or storm is possible at all terminals this afternoon, with VFR prevailing otherwise. Valley fog will then be possible tonight at LEB and HIE, with VFR then returning by mid morning Tuesday and prevailing. Outlook: Tuesday-Thursday: Generally VFR conditions expected Thursday night-Friday: Generally MVFR conditions expected with widespread showers. IFR conditions possible in fog at night. && .MARINE... Conditions remain below SCA levels for atleast the next few days, with a cold front passing through the waters this afternoon. Reduced visibility in marine fog is likely through midday today before the frontal passage. Broad high pressure then builds in for midweek. A stronger cold front is likely late in the week, with SCA conditions possible. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barker/Clair/Ekster AVIATION... MARINE...  976 FXUS61 KILN 241028 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 628 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry and cool conditions are expected through the first of the week. Thunderstorm chances return for Wednesday night into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Surface high pressure will shift slowly east across the mid Ohio Valley region through Tuesday. This will lead to dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 70s, moderating a bit for Tuesday when highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A weak mid level short wave will drop down across the southern Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday. This will bring some lower end chances for showers and thunderstorms for mid week. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Areas of river valley fog will lift through mid morning with sct VFR cu expected into this afternoon. The cu will dissipate this evening with mostly clear skies tonight. Some river valley fog will be possible again late tonight. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGL AVIATION...JGL  000 FXUS62 KILM 241029 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 629 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation discussion for the 12Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, especially along the eastern portions of the forecast area. - 2) Temperatures remain near seasonal norms much of this week, with more organized chances of showers and storms due by later this week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, especially along the eastern portions of the forecast area. Latest surface analysis shows a weak front draped across the forecast area, cutting through roughly from Florence, SC up through Elizabethtown, NC. A couple of isolated showers have popped up near this boundary during the overnight hours, but the majority of the area remains quiet for now. Throughout today, this front will try to drift a little more southward towards the coast, but likely stalling out before it gets there. Meanwhile, a broad upper low spinning over the Great Lakes, Ontario, and Quebec has a wide trough axis that comes all the way down into the Carolinas. This axis will continue to deepen slightly, and move eastward into the local forecast area. The bulk of the vorticity is locked way up north, but shortwaves within the trough will allow for some extra forcing later in the day. The seabreeze will allow for initial convection to kickoff sometime around 1-2 PM EDT this afternoon just inland from the coast. The frontal boundary and the forcing aloft will act to exacerbate storms aided by their outflows. Along the eastern half of the forecast area, dewpoints well into the 70s will promote buoyancy, going hand- in-hand with the moderately strong instability in play. Effective shear parameters also look a bit more convincing in the coastal areas, generally 30-40 kts. Overall, scattered storms expected near the coast this afternoon, gradually pushing inland with the outflows. Strong to severe storms are possible, particularly with damaging winds and perhaps a brief spin-up tornado. A "Slight Risk" (threat level 2/5) of severe weather possible east of I-95. Storms should start coming down by sunset. .KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures remain near seasonal norms much of this week, with more organized chances of showers and storms due by later this week. Temperatures should remain rather even keeled this week. Highs each day hover somewhere in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Only a few isolated spots may hit heat indices in the triple digits at times, and thankfully, no advisory-level heat expected this week. A more organized frontal system comes into play Thursday and Friday, which may stall out near the coast over the weekend. As a result, more appreciable rain and thunderstorm chances look to come to fruition. Precipitable water (PWAT) values hit 2 inches again, pointing towards a tropical atmosphere (minus the tropical storm part). The drought continues across the area, and this may afford more opportunities to keep chipping away at it. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mostly VFR after morning restrictions clear up, mainly at KLBT. Then there will be restrictions in afternoon storms with highest coverage at coastal terminals. There is a threat for damaging wind gusts in severe storms. Things should largely clear up after sunset where there could be restrictions, mainly inland, Monday night. Extended Forecast...Mainly VFR with early morning fog and stratus possible each morning. The areal coverage of storms is projected to increase at all terminals from the mid to latter parts of the week. This could lead to restrictions from time to time in/near any of the rounds of convection that develop. && .MARINE... Through Friday...A weak front will move towards the coast today with S-SWly flow prevailing across the adjacent waters. This boundary may become nearly stationary along the coast the first part of the week with light/variable conditions near the front and generally light S-SWly to its east and south. Any convection has the potential to create locally higher wind/wave conditions. The old boundary will likely drift back to the north by mid-week with an increase in S-SWly flow that will persist through Friday. Overall, seas will be in the 2-4 ft range offshore, and 1-3 across the coastal waters. However, as mentioned above, locally enhanced winds/seas are expected at times as a result of convection. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM KEY MESSAGES...IGB DISCUSSION...IGB AVIATION...LEW MARINE...IGB  073 FXUS61 KALY 241030 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 630 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated to scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms today and tomorrow will bring additional light, beneficial rainfall primarily to higher terrain areas. 2) Showers and thunderstorm potential increases once again for the end of the week but no significant impacts are expected at this time. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... An upper-level cut-off low and associated surface cyclone will gradually track overhead before departing to the north and east Tuesday night. Persistent cool, cyclonic flow will generate a lake and upslope response such that isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur today and Tuesday. Most of this convection will be confined to the higher elevations of the Southern Adirondacks and Southern Greens, but isolated showers and storms could drift into or develop in the Upper- Hudson, Capital, Taconic, Berkshire, and Eastern Catskill regions. This will be more likely on Tuesday as a surface trough and shortwave aloft rotate about the bases of the departing cyclones. Generally, rainfall from these showers and storms will be light as moisture is limited. Additionally, given limited instability; weak shear; and weakening lapse rates through peak heating hours, any thunderstorm will likely be brief and have limited vertical growth. Therefore, there are no concerns for flash flooding or storms to become severe. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure builds back in from the west on Wednesday, yielding a return to regionwide dry conditions. However, the tranquility will not be long lasting as chances for showers and thunderstorms increase once again for the end of the work week. Another cut-off low looks to develop early Thursday morning, but this time well to our north such that a broad trough extends south into the Ohio Valley and gradually moves east into our area. An associated surface low then looks to send a series of boundaries through eastern New York and western New England through Friday, yielding potentially multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Confidence is not yet high regarding the severe weather potential given inexact timing and evolutionary details. However, given the projection of weak deep-layer shear and a potentially early onset of showers on Thursday morning, it's safe to say at this point that the overall severe threat Thursday is low. Friday could be the better day for severe weather potential given increased forcing with the passage of a cold front and upper-level shortwave. One limiting factor is the weak shear portrayed in the current guidance. But, should this increase, increased instability and steeper lapse rates also portrayed in some of the guidance could give Friday a greater potential for severe thunderstorms. We will continue to monitor trends going forward. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Some fog, mist and low clouds developed overnight due to the high low level moisture in place along with relatively clear skies and light winds. With sunrise now underway, any fog or mist will begin to dissipate. Most of it will be gone by 12z, but will mention some lingering mist for an hour or so. Once this dissipates, it looks to be VFR through the day today, with sct cigs around 5-8 kft becoming bkn towards the afternoon hours. South to southwest winds around 5 kts in the morning will become 5-10 kts by the afternoon hours. There could be a passing brief light rain shower for this evening into tonight, otherwise, flying conditions will continue to be VFR for all sites with bkn cigs around 4-6 kft and light south to southwest winds. Outlook...Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...27  139 FXUS65 KBOI 241030 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 430 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms south of a line from Burns OR to Jordan Valley OR to Twin Falls ID, this afternoon and evening. - Thunderstorms capable of producing outflow winds up to 55 mph this afternoon and evening. - Little chance of thunderstorms the rest of the week, except a slight chance in the central ID mountains Wednesday afternoon, and near the NV/ID border Friday-Sunday afternoons. - Warming Monday and Tuesday, holding level Wednesday, then gradually cooling the rest of the week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday Night/... Upper level ridge will rebound over the area and bring warmer temperatures today and monsoonal moisture from the south. Moisture values in the atmosphere increase from the 20th percentile to the 85th percentile by this evening. A shortwave moving in the southwest flow aloft will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms over far SE Oregon and southern ID south of the Snake Basin, generally from Burns OR, to the Owyhee Mountains to Twin Falls ID and areas south. Storms will generally weaken into showers as they move northeast into the Snake Basin, but outflows up to 55 mph and blowing dust will still be a threat. Showers taper off overnight into Tuesday. Lingering moisture will remain over the area for isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon over southwest Idaho. A weak wave will move over the region on Wednesday with mostly cloudy skies. Thunderstorm development will be limited on Wednesday due to cloud cover, but isolated thunderstorms over southwest Idaho possible. && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/... An upper level trough off the West Coast will push the monsoon moisture south and east of our area. Height falls throughout the period will allow for a slight cooling trend. Temperatures will be around 5 degrees above normal Thursday, before cooling to near normal Friday and Saturday, and slightly below normal on Sunday. Uncertainty begins to increase late this week, following the lifting of the initial trough and associated frontal passage as tropical activity in the Pacific enhances the jet stream. Models do not handle the energy transfer well in these situations so expect lots of changes in the far extended period. && .AVIATION /06Z Monday through Tuesday/... Issued 1246 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2026 VFR. Areas of wildfire smoke. Surface winds: variable under 12 kts overnight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 5-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: light and variable overnight. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Fire Weather Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for IDZ423-426. OR...Fire Weather Watch from 3 PM PDT this afternoon through this evening for ORZ670>672. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...KA LONG TERM....KA AVIATION.....CH  196 FXUS65 KSLC 241032 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 431 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1151 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026... - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall across most of the region through early next week. - Thunderstorms will continue to impact the higher terrain and adjacent valleys through Wednesday. Another round of more widespread thunderstorms is increasing in likelihood for Friday into early next weekend. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1151 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026... Strong to severe convection will develop this afternoon and evening, with the highest probability of significant impacts (10% chance of wind gusts in excess of 70 mph) across northern Utah. A Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe thunderstorms has been issued for this area by the Storm Prediction Center. Looking at the set-up, this morning's 12Z sounding at KSLC already showed almost 1000 J/kg MUCAPE but with a fairly stout amount of convective inhibition. Latest guidance suggests this effective cap will erode by 20-21Z, allowing for robust convective development across northern Utah. Mean HREF SBCAPE indicates a broad area of values near to above around 1000-1500 J/kg across northern Utah coincident with deep layer shear around 25-30 kts. Weak surface convergence associated with a shortwave trough passing to the north may help to organize convection into a quasi-linear feature, though per typical in terrain, this is difficult to discern in model fields. The latest few HRRR runs do show a signature of an organized line of very strong outflow shifting across the west desert and into the Wasatch Front between 21Z and 01Z and then continuing to be quite strong into the Uinta County, WY area by 02-03Z. Peak wind gusts in these runs have increased to 55kts, but given the very steep lapse rates, relatively high instability for the Great Basin, modest deep layer shear and low LCLs, expect storms to be able to attain cold pool/shear balance. Saturday's convective outflow peak was 80 mph near Grassey on I-80...cant rule out a repeat somewhere along this area of outflow winds this afternoon and evening. For areas south of I-70, the heavy rain threat continues. While HREF peak 1 hour rates have decreased over Saturday's values, net available moisture has only decreased subtly. Expect any stronger thunderstorms, especially those tied to terrain features and/or training, to be capable of rainfall rates in excess of 0.50 inches per hour. Will need to monitor for flash flood threat across much of this area...especially for slot canyons, normally dry washes and recent burn scars. With the previously mentioned upper level trough passing to the east Monday, the best chance for strong outflow winds will shift to mainly the Utah/Idaho border region. Convection will become increasingly tied to the higher terrain and adjacent valleys through Wednesday...with only isolated convection expected Thursday as high pressure brings a drying trend to most locations. However...with the tropical eastern Pacific remaining quite active, at least a portion of ensemble members indicate the next trough approaching the Pacific Northwest will assist in shifting remnant tropical moisture into the Great Basin by Friday. This is something to watch moving forward. && .AVIATION, Issued 1025 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026... KSLC...Showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist into the overnight hours in the vicinity of KSLC, however the chance for lightning at the terminal will diminish below 10% after 06Z. Brief MVFR VIS can be expected should a heavier shower or thunderstorm move over the terminal. Winds will continue to be outflow driven through at least 06Z, varying in direction and speed, but will eventually become southeasterly/drainage by 09Z. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected around the general area Monday. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Showers and thunderstorms will continue across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming into the overnight hours, gradually decreasing in coverage and intensity with time. Frequent lightning, gusty outflow winds to 30 kts, and periods of MVFR VIS within heavier rain will all be possible. VFR conditions will prevail across southern Utah. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area Monday afternoon and evening potentially impacting all terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER...High pressure centered over the Four Corners region will remain fairly stationary throughout the week. Diurnal thunderstorms will continue through the week with a lull in activity during the second half of the week as slightly drier air moves into the region. However, models have trended away from a more significant drying trend as the high pressure remains more stationary. This will likely result in isolated convection centered over the higher terrain Wednesday-Friday. Southwesterly winds will start to increase towards the end of the week as an upper level low pressure moves into the PNW. This will coincide with lower relative humidity to create locally critical fire weather conditions. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC... AVIATION... FIRE WEATHER...Mahan For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  379 FXUS62 KMLB 241038 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 638 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms will persist through the week, with the highest coverage expected from mid to late week. A few storms will be capable of producing gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph, particularly today and Tuesday. - Seasonably hot and humid conditions are expected through the week. Those working or recreating outdoors should take frequent breaks and stay hydrated. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 -----------Synoptic Overview----------- A rather amplified upper-air pattern remains in place across the U.S. early this morning. An unseasonably cool trough sits over the eastern Great Lakes, with additional jet stream energy passing close to Glacier NP. Meanwhile, anomalous ridging extends from the Chihuahuan Desert to the Greater Antilles. A weakness in the ridge axis remains over Florida, where a weak shortwave trough currently resides. Through at least Wednesday, the break in the ridge will remain very close to Florida as additional weak ripples of vorticity reinforce this general pattern. Then, from late week and into next weekend, global ensembles indicate that heights will build over the state as the Bermuda high attempts to establish itself closer to the Bahamas. Expect the near-surface ridge axis to remain near or south of Central Florida through at least Wednesday. Thereafter, surface high pressure should become focused very close to or immediately north of the local area. PWAT (total moisture) values are forecast to sink slightly below normal early this week before climbing toward climatological norms for the rest of the forecast period. -------Sensible Weather & Impacts------- Today - Tuesday... The overall setup will not change too much as we begin the work week, aside from slightly drier air briefly filtering overhead. With broad light offshore flow and an expected sea breeze each afternoon, at least scattered showers and storms are forecast. Chances range from 30-40% today up to 30-60% on Tuesday, with the highest chances on Tuesday near and north of Orlando. Storms may linger into the evening due to late boundary collisions. While the drier air should limit overall coverage a bit, it may also favor stronger downdrafts in storms that develop. There is a low chance for wind gusts up to 50-55 mph. High temps will be hot, in the low to mid 90s each afternoon. Heat indices peak at 100 to 107. Wednesday - Friday... As high pressure nudges essentially overhead, the low-level sea breeze circulation will be the dominant force for storm development each day. Light offshore flow in the mid-levels will try to steer showers and storms back toward the coast in the evening hours. As moisture returns to normal, this portends fairly high coverage of afternoon and early evening showers and storms for east central Florida (50-70%). Seasonably hot conditions continue, with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat indices of 100 to 107. Next Weekend... Near-normal moisture remains in place with high pressure strengthening nearby or just northeast of the local area. Scattered afternoon and evening storms should continue, but the focus may shift over the interior as mid-level offshore flow weakens. Continued seasonable heat and humidity. && .MARINE... Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Near-surface high pressure rests close to the Florida Straits, with weak offshore flow interrupted by the afternoon sea breeze. By the middle of the week, the ridge axis lifts closer to the local Atlantic waters. A few showers and storms are possible, especially at night over the Gulf Stream. Some evening storms may move offshore early in the work week. Light S to SW breezes up to 10 kt, turning SE in the afternoon up to 12 kt with the sea breeze. Seas generally less than 2 feet. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 635 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Light S/SW winds through 15Z then Atlc sea breeze will develop and shift winds E/SE near 10 knots at coastal terminals by 17Z. With some drier air and lighter steering flow, do not expect too early of a start to convection. In fact it could be quite late across the interior (MCO/SFB) assocd with the sea breeze collision. So have added a PROB30 for MCO/SFB from 20Z-01Z. Slightly earlier PROB30 for the Treasure coast terminals (VRB- SUA) due to boundary interactions with the Okeechobee lake breeze and steering flow back toward the coast. Potential exists for gusty winds 35-45 knots in the stronger storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 93 75 92 74 / 30 10 50 20 MCO 95 76 94 76 / 40 10 50 10 MLB 93 77 93 76 / 30 10 40 20 VRB 93 75 92 75 / 30 10 30 20 LEE 93 75 92 75 / 40 10 60 10 SFB 94 75 93 75 / 40 10 50 20 ORL 94 77 94 76 / 40 10 50 10 FPR 93 75 92 75 / 30 10 30 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Heil AVIATION...Kelly  444 FXUS63 KGRR 241040 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 640 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of Fog Tuesday Morning - Thunderstorms Possible Wednesday, Less Likely Thursday - Active Pattern Could Develop By This Weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Areas of Fog Tuesday Morning With a surface high building into the region later today into tonight, winds will gradually tail off after dark and likely go calm for many areas. GFS MOS guidance along with NAM soundings do support areas of fog developing after 06z Tuesday as dew point depressions approach or reach zero in some spots and an inversion above the surface develops. Scattered clouds could be present, however, so a widespread fog event does not appear likely. Still, there is enough of a signal to put areas of fog in the forecast. Fog may develop especially in low lying areas, which could have some localized impacts to the Tuesday morning commute. - Thunderstorms Possible Wednesday, Less Likely Thursday Midweek rain chances remain on track as upper troughing is set to move through the Great Lakes during peak heating on Wednesday. Low level moisture advection ahead of this trough is shown by model guidance, with surface dew points starting the day (12z) in the upper 50s, then climbing to the mid to perhaps upper 60s by late afternoon. SBCAPE values shown by the RRFS are forecast to reach 1500 J/kg. Some model guidance supports up to 2000 J/kg, though this would likely be the higher end of what materializes. While deep layer shear looks to be about 25 kts, thus leading to quasi-organized convection, one supporting factor to some locally stronger storms is RRFS modeled DCAPE values of 800-1000 J/kg. We're expecting at least some scattered showers/storms to develop primarily after 18z and lasting to about 06z. Better coverage may get going after 21z. A scattered damaging wind gust is not out of the question Wednesday afternoon and evening, so will monitor trends. The GEM and ECMWF support a slight chance for a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms Thursday mainly east of US 131 as residual surface based instability could remain underneath upper troughing. The GFS dries out the low levels quicker and would largely end the threat. The NBM POPs are quite low on Thursday, so rain is not a high threat at this point. - Active Pattern Could Develop By This Weekend Both ensemble and deterministic model guidance is signaling a potential shift in the synoptic pattern by this weekend into early next week. In fact, both the 00z ECE and CMC ensemble mean 500 mb heights are in the upper 580s dm across Lower MI by Sunday. This could potentially place the Great Lakes in stronger mid level flow with mid level jet cores moving overhead. The positioning of the upper ridge will be key to the location of convective activity. At this point we may be in an active corridor or close to it. PWAT values of 1.50"-2.00"+ are supported by ensemble guidance. So, these are some interesting trends to keep watching. We may round out the month of August and enter September with some periods of storminess, especially Sunday and beyond. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 640 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 SCT to even BKN cloud bases around 3k ft have developed across portions of western and northwestern Lower MI, poorly handled by model guidance. With daytime mixing this morning, these cloud bases should lift toward 5k ft or so. Either way, not a major impact to aviation. Focus turns to the 08z-12z Tuesday time frame with possible fog development occurring. This is shown by NAM soundings with an inversion setting up above the surface and temp/dp depressions near zero at times. MAV/LAV guidance does suggest 2sm or below for the terminals with the exception of MKG, possibly dense fog at times for locations like JXN. Will continue assessing model guidance today to better pin down this threat. && .MARINE... Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Waves should generally stay in the 2 to 4 foot range today as NW flow will be a bit weaker than Sunday, and also decreasing later in the day. Winds and waves should by and large stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria, though some 3 to 5 footers can't be ruled out early afternoon mainly south of Pentwater. A moderate swim risk will be in place given these waves. Will keep an eye on buoy trends today to see if waves overperform, and if so a Beach Hazards Statement and Small Craft Advisory may be needed for some areas. At this point we will hold off on any headlines. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hoving AVIATION...Hoving MARINE...Hoving  426 FXUS63 KILX 241040 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 540 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonal and mostly dry weather is expected through Tuesday. - The next chance for showers and storms arrives Wednesday. Some of these storms could be strong to marginally severe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Upper analysis has the middle Mississippi Valley positioned under northwest flow with strong upper ridging over the southwest US and a closed low impacting the northeast US. Surface high pressure over central IL early this morning has kept skies mostly clear and winds light. Temperatures as of 2 am have dropped into the upper 50s to low 60s with dewpoint depressions ranging from 0 to a couple degrees. Because of this, patchy low lying fog will be possible through about sunrise. Otherwise, seasonal and mostly dry weather is expected through Tuesday with high temperatures today and tomorrow expected to be in the upper 70s to middle 80s. By Wednesday, a mid-level shortwave will track through the southern Canadian provinces and into the northern Great Lakes Region, sending a cold front through Illinois. This will bring our next chance for showers and storms. Out ahead of the front, temperatures will climb well into the 80s with steady moisture return bringing dewpoints back into the upper 60s to low 70s. Moderately strong instability is expected to develop by Wednesday afternoon with seasonally strong shear around 30 kts nearest to the front. Forecast soundings depict inverted-V T/Td profiles, implying evaporative cooling could rapidly send parcels toward the surface and locally increase winds. A capping inversion will be in place most of the day, but will erode by late afternoon/early evening as the front approaches and lapse rates steepen. Although the better forcing will be displaced to our north, a few strong to marginally severe storms could develop late Wednesday afternoon and evening, posing a threat for damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail. Northwest flow remains largely in place through late this week, transitioning to zonal by the weekend. A few weak shortwaves rippling through the upper flow may spark occasional spotty showers through the end of the week, though most will stay dry. Longer range guidance shows a more defined wave/front moving through the Midwest states sometime between Saturday night and Sunday, which could bring another chance for showers and storms. Temperatures will remain seasonable through the end of the week, then turn warmer later this weekend into early next week with the NBM showing upper 80s to near 90 degree highs. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 540 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Surface high pressure will keep winds light and variable through today, becoming easterly later tonight. Patchy fog may impact the terminals through about 13Z this morning and again overnight tonight mainly at northern airfields (KPIA, KBMI, KCMI). High clouds will increase in coverage today, with a period of diurnal cumulus also expected from late morning through afternoon. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...NMA DISCUSSION...NMA AVIATION...NMA  475 FXUS64 KEWX 241041 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 541 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 535 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Extreme Heat Warning continues Monday for the northern Hill Country and Austin area. - Heat Advisory continues through Wednesday for the Coastal Plains, I-35 corridor, and portions of the Hill Country. - Mostly hot and dry weather throughout the week outside of low rain chances Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 There is little sign that the heat will recede substantially in the coming days. In fact, both LREF and HREF ensemble distributions indicate that 1000-500mb thicknesses will reach their maximum today, an indicator that the hot airmass could be at its most robust. While statistical and consensus aids assess slightly lower temperatures tomorrow compared to this past weekend, the recent overperformance of observed temperatures errs on the side of hotter conditions prevailing. The Extreme Heat Warning has been extended through 7 PM today to cover the afternoon heat between Llano and Bastrop counties, including Austin, where the blended model likelihood of highs exceeding 105F remains high, above 70 percent. These areas will likely continue seeing the highest temperatures in South Central Texas, but potentially hazardous heat will also be widespread elsewhere as highs continue to reach the triple digits regionwide. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the I-35 corridor, Coastal Plains, and portions of the Hill Country through Wednesday. Confidence is lower that the upper echelon of temperatures Tuesday will be as hot as this past weekend due to slightly higher low- level dew points given a more southeast mean flow, but the the difference in heat is minimal. High temperatures Tuesday throughout South Central Texas will remain above 100F for most areas without chances for rain. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 This particular stretch of the ongoing heatwave continues through at least Wednesday as the mid to upper level ridge stays centered over New Mexico. The ridge does shift slightly west after midweek and elongates to the north, which allows the jet stream to bow more south towards our area. While temperatures remain notably hot through Wednesday, a minor downward trend in forecast temperatures is noted during the second half of the week as the upper-level flow allows the opportunity for more cirriform clouds to move over the area and abate some of the heat. Weak disturbances in the flow will mostly serve to bring a few swaths of increased cloud cover aloft. The moisture supply aloft isn't great, but there is some opportunity for one of these perturbations to bring isolated rains. This would be most favored Thursday afternoon/evening with consensus emerging for a weak shortwave to quickly track from the Texas Panhandle to our area while mid-level temperatures become less restrictive to convective development. Still, the meager moisture and weak forcing keep chances generally low and near or below 30 percent for most areas. Over the weekend, the flow aloft becomes less favorable to approaching disturbances as the ridge becomes more zonally diffuse. The core of the hot airmass associated with the ridge is expected to become displaced a little farther to the northwest. This suggests temperatures by this upcoming weekend won't reach nearly as high as the early week, but highs between the upper 90s to low 100s will still be likely while the overall pattern holds dry. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 535 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR flight conditions continue. Patchy low clouds havedeveloped this morning just east of the I-35 corridor. Could possibly see a few of the low clouds approach KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF near or just beyond sunrise. Otherwise, short term model guidance signals that the low clouds around or just after the sunrise timeframe could become a bit more prevalent Tuesday morning compared to this morning. Otherwise, a few high clouds will continue to pass over the region at times. Winds generally of around 10 kts or less are expected but the sea breeze beyond sunset could kick up breezes slightly for the I-35 TAF sites (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF) between 02Z and 06Z. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Record Daily Max Temperatures Mon 08/24 AUS 107 (2010) ATT 107 (2010) SAT 103 (2010/2013) DRT 103 (1911/1952/2006/2024) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 106 77 104 78 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 105 76 103 77 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 103 74 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 103 74 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 105 77 103 78 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 105 77 103 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 102 73 101 74 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 104 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 104 77 103 77 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 103 75 102 77 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 104 75 104 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ171>173- 192-193. Heat Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ171>173-192-193. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ191-194-205>209- 220>225. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...62  534 FXUS61 KBGM 241043 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 643 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... PoPs were increased early this morning with a band of showers rotating through mainly before daybreak. PoPs were also increased along with shower coverage this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon with lake enhancement expected. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers are expected to continue into Tuesday, most numerous across Central NY with some lake enhancement. 2) High pressure builds in for a brief lull in wet weather Tuesday night into Wednesday, then additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to return Thursday into Friday before drying back out heading into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A broad upper level trough remains over the region today with a closed low off to our north that will slowly drift east into western Quebec. A potent shortwave embedded in the flow will swing through the area early this morning and help drawn in some noticeably cooler air. As this feature moves through, some light showers are expected to accompany it prior to daybreak. Southwesterly flow will become more westerly this afternoon, and northwesterly into Tuesday, tapping into lake moisture. With cool air aloft this afternoon, steepening low-level lapse rates, and up to a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, scattered showers are expected to develop, most widespread from the Twin Tiers on north. Some small hail can't be ruled out in the heaviest of showers. Lake effect rain showers are expected to become more concentrated north of the Southern Tier tonight before northwesterly flow Tuesday and lake enhancement with another upper level shortwave rotating through along the base of the departing upper trough spreads showers farther south and east once again. PoPs were increased from the NBM across the Twin Tiers both this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon as the NBM tends to be underdone with shower coverage and not far enough SE in this set up. It will be quite cool today with highs in the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Portions of SW Steuben County may even struggle to reach the lower 60s. Lows tonight will be mainly in the upper 40s to the mid 50s. Highs Tuesday again generally range from the mid 60s to the low 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure briefly builds in Tuesday night into Wednesday with dry conditions. The next cold frontal boundary starts to approach from the west Thursday and moves through Thursday night into early Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure may form near the Southeast Coast and lift north ahead of the front and enhance the moisture across the area which could result in some localized downpours. WPC does has NE PA and the southern Catskills outlooked in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall this far out for Thursday/Thursday night, so this will be a trend to monitor. High pressure looks to build back in with drier conditions for the start of next weekend. Temperatures will be on the rise Wednesday through Friday with highs generally in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. The Lake Plain and portions of the Finger Lakes do look a bit warmer on Thursday ahead of the front with some places reaching the low and mid 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Scattered rain showers are spinning under an area of low pressure across Central NY early this morning. These will impact RME and SYR until 13-14z, bringing some brief MVFR cloud bases. Otherwise, it should remain generally VFR elsewhere through the morning and early afternoon hours. Lake effect rain showers likely develop later this afternoon, with PROB30 groups included for brief MVFR restrictions at RME, SYR,ITH,ELM and BGMmainly between about 19z and 01z. Can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm, but chances were too low to include at any TAF site at this time. Heading into the late evening hours MVFR CIGs drop down from the north and overspread SYR, RME, ITH and ELM between 03-06z Tuesday. There could also be additional lake effect rain showers during this timeframe, especially at SYR and RME. MVFR/MVFR Fuel Alt CIGs continue late tonight into Tuesday morning across our NY TAF sites, with a chance for IFR CIGs at RME and SYR toward daybreak Tuesday. Light and variable winds under 5 kts expected through the early to mid morning hours today. Winds then turn southwest between 5 to 15 kts this afternoon, before diminishing later this evening into tonight. Outlook... Tuesday...Lingering MVFR restrictions possible with the west- northwest flow lake effect rain showers around. Improvement expected later in the day or evening. Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR, morning fog potential at ELM. Friday...Potential restrictions with an incoming frontal system. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DK AVIATION...MJM  553 FXUS61 KPHI 241044 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 644 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... It is looking more likely that any isolated showers this afternoon will be generally north of Delmarva. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. High pressure will slowly build towards the region through Wednesday. 2. A warm front on Thursday, will be followed very closely by a cold front Friday into Saturday, resulting in unsettled weather at the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure will slowly build towards the region through Wednesday. High pressure is expected to slowly build towards the region. However, the main mid and upper level low which was responsible for the unsettled weather over the past few days, will still be centered over Ontario and Quebec through tomorrow. As a result, we could continue to see some isolated showers and storms, particularly in the afternoon hours as embedded short wave troughs pivot through the region through Tuesday before the main low finally starts to lift northeast away from the region. Given the proximity to the main trough, the main area that could potentially see showers and storms is in NJ and SE PA. The activity is expected to generally stay north of Delmarva. At this point, main concerns with any storms are cloud-to-ground lightning and brief heavy downpours, but the risk for other hazards is quite low. KEY MESSAGE 2...A warm front on Thursday, will be followed very closely by a cold front Friday into Saturday, resulting in unsettled weather at the end of the week. By Thursday, high pressure moves offshore with southerly return flow behind a warm front, helping bring dew points back into the low-70s. There looks to be two chances for showers and storms. The first is expected to be Thursday with and behind the warm front. Another chance for storms is possible Friday into Saturday as a cold front approaches. The timing of this cold front will be critical in the risk for thunderstorm hazards, so uncertain on the severe and flooding risk at this point, but will continue to monitor as we go through the week. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...Primarily VFR conditions expected. Isolated SHRA and TSRA are possible between 18 and 00Z, particularly from KPHL northward, but coverage is expected to be limited so confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this point. W to WSW winds around 10 kts gusts up to 15-20 kts. Winds shifting more north of west toward 00Z. High confidence. Tonight...Prevailing VFR conditions expected. Winds mostly out of the west, but becoming light and variable, particularly after 00Z. Outlook... Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR expected most of the time. Thursday and Friday...Showers and thunderstorms likely developing late, otherwise prevailing VFR. && .MARINE... No marine hazards expected. Outlook... Through Wednesday...No marine hazards expected. Thursday and Friday...Gusts near 25 kt are possible, particularly on Thursday with southerly winds behind a warm front. Rip Currents... For today, southwest winds will average 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon with breaking waves of 1 to 2 feet. There will be light southerly swells with a period of 6 to 8 seconds. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches. On Tuesday, winds will shift more westerly with similar seas and surf conditions as Monday expected. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WFO PHI AVIATION...WFO PHI MARINE...WFO PHI  543 FXUS63 KIND 241044 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 644 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and less humid weather expected through Tuesday - Patchy fog through 8am this morning with additional fog development possible late tonight - Scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday evening into Thursday && .DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)... Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Today through Tuesday night... Patchy fog has developed across central Indiana this morning due to very light winds and mostly clear skies. Current observations show this fog has mostly developed in climatologically favored locations in valleys or near rivers. Look for this to become more common in favored locations through daybreak before then quickly mixing out after sunrise. Mostly quiet weather conditions are expected early this week with surface high pressure across the region. Aloft, upper troughing shifts east into Tuesday while ridging builds in. This should allow for a slight moderation in temperatures, but seasonably cool temperatures will persist given negligible thermal advection. Highs will generally range from the mid 70s to low 80s. Very light winds and mostly clear skies again tonight into Tuesday morning will promote patchy fog development. Any fog that develops should quickly mix out in typical diurnal fashion. Surface high pressure begins to shift east late Tuesday allowing for surface flow to become more southerly late overnight. Wednesday through Sunday A weakening upper level low riding overtop of the western ridge will drop into the upper Midwest early Wednesday before becoming absorbed by a broader long wave trough that will amplify across the eastern half of the country for late week. Low pressure and an associated cold front running in tandem with the upper wave will track across the Ohio Valley Wednesday evening through early Thursday in a progressively weakened condition as stronger forcing aloft is lost. There will be enough moisture and instability along and immediately ahead of the frontal boundary for scattered convection with the front clearing the forecast area during the day Thursday. Isolated convection is possible on Thursday across east-central IN before the front moves out. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out Wednesday evening into Wednesday night as guidance depicts moderate instability ahead of the approaching front along with slight enhancement of mid-upper level flow from the approaching wave aloft. Confidence remains low due to varying model solutions, but trends will continue to be monitored. These details should become more clear once guidance is better aligned. High pressure will reestablish in the wake of the frontal passage drifting slowly east through the Great Lakes into Saturday. This bring another multi day stretch of dry weather with seasonable temperatures as highs will focus largely in the low to mid 80s. The ridge will flatten to the west over the weekend opening the possibility for convection to impact the region by late weekend into early next week as multiple waves ride along in the predominantly zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will also rise back into the mid and upper 80s by the end of the forecast period with an uptick in humidity levels. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 643 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Impacts: - MVFR or worse visibilities in fog possible at outlying terminals through 13Z, especially at KLAF - Additional fog development likely at the outlying TAF sites late tonight into Tuesday morning Discussion: Mainly VFR conditions to continue across central Indiana through the period as Canadian surface high pressure crosses the Midwest. Expect light and variable winds through daybreak with fog/BR at the outlying sites through 12-13Z today. Expect northwest winds sustained up to 3-8KT later today before winds become light and variable again tonight. Additional fog development is likely at the outlying TAF sites late tonight into Tuesday morning. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ AVIATION...Melo DISCUSSION...Ryan/Melo  539 FXUS66 KMFR 241044 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 344 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Daytime highs look to be 5 to 10 degrees above normal, especially west of the Cascades. * A 15-20% chance of thunderstorms remains over southeastern Lake and Modoc counties this afternoon and evening. * A passing shortwave will bring critical fire weather conditions (gusty winds and low humidities) to areas west of the Cascades on Monday. A red flag warning is in effect for the southern Oregon Cascades and westward into Jackson County, the Siskiyou Mountains and western/central Siskiyou County. && .DISCUSSION...Today will be the warmest day of the forecast period for most areas. Temperatures west of the Cascades may reach up to 10 degrees above normal, while to the east highs look to be about 5 degrees above normal. A passing shortwave will bring elevated winds into the Shasta Valley, the Klamath Basin, Christmas Valley, and parts of the Rogue Valley. For western Siskiyou County, Jackson County, and western Cascades foothills, these winds align with ongoing dry conditions to possibly reach critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for this afternoon and evening to highlight these concerns. This shortwave is also support slight (15- 20%) thunderstorm chances over eastern Modoc and Lake counties, given its interactions with monsoonal moisture moving over those areas. While the chances for thunderstorms are not high enough to meet Red Flag criteria, any thunderstorms that do develop can still be locally hazardous by bringing lightning strikes or erratic and gusty winds. On Tuesday, an approaching trough around a low pressure system over the Pacific will shift flow to be more southerly. With dry air aloft precipitation is not expected. Temperatures west of the Cascades will drop a bit, but highs across the area look to stay about 5 degrees above normal. A weak front swinging around that trough may bring marine drizzle and some inland cloud cover On Tuesday morning, but significant impacts are not expected. For midweek and into the weekend, the upper trough starts to work against high pressure centered around the Four Corners area. The first low will weaken and move off to the northeast but another low follows to keep the trough in place possibly through Saturday. With this pattern, slow and steady cooling would bring generally seasonable warmth across the area by Friday or Saturday. Upper disturbances may bring elevated breezes on Friday, but details that far out are hard to forecast with high confidence. Overall, the forecast through the rest of August looks to be unimpactful. -TAD && .AVIATION (06Z TAFs)... Marine stratus with IFR/LIFR will redevelop along the coast overnight and persist through late Monday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for inland TAF sites. Gusty winds will develop for inland areas late Monday afternoon and evening. Additionally this is a slight chance (20%) for thunderstorms across Modoc and southeastern Lake county Monday afternoon and early Monday evening. Gusty outflow winds may accompany storms on Monday. && .MARINE...Updated 230 AM PDT Monday, August 23, 2026...Gusty north winds and steep seas will persist across the waters through this morning. Winds near shore will ease this afternoon and evening, limiting steep seas to outer waters. A southerly surge of winds and fog along the inner waters is expected tonight into Tuesday. Generally light winds and seas will follow mid-week. && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 AM PDT Monday, August 23, 2026... With ongoing dry conditions, a passing shortwave will bring elevated winds to areas west of the Cascades this afternoon and evening. These winds will be southerly in the Shasta and could approach 30 to 35 mph. The Scott Valley could also see southerly winds approach 20 to 25 mph. In the eastern Rogue Valley, westerly winds could reach 20 to 25 mph. With RHs forecast to be in the 10-15% range, this combination represents critical fire weather conditions as any new fires could quickly spread. A Red Flag Warning for gusty winds and low RHs has been issued for California fire weather ones 280 and 281 as well as Oregon fire weather zones 621, 622, and 623. This Warning will be in place today from 11 AM through 8 PM. Also later today, there are some signals for thunderstorm chances across far eastern 285/625, namely the Warner and Hart mountains. Much will depend on how far west the Four Corners High retrogrades behind this trough passage. Otherwise, another trough drops southward from the Gulf of Alaska and lingers off the BC coast through early next week. There will likely be additional shortwaves/troughs to swing through the region early next week, bringing periods of enhanced winds. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ621>623. CA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ280-281. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for PZZ350-356. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ370-376. && $$ TAD/TAD/TAD  851 FXUS62 KCAE 241050 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 650 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated 12z Aviation. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm chances each day this week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm chances each day this week. A weak frontal boundary remains stalled across the Midlands, roughly along the I-20 corridor and is expected to linger toward the coast this week. This boundary is evident in the dewpoint gradient, with values in the mid-70s to our south/east and mid-60s to our north/west. Through today and into Tuesday, the upper-level pattern will support northwest flow and continued advection of direr air into the region. As a result, rain chances will remain low, with only isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms possible. Thermodynamic profiles are expected to remain unfavorable for deep convection, with only shallow, fair weather cumulus in the afternoon. Temps will remain near normal, although still relatively warm as highs reach the low 90s. Lower dewpoints should also keep heat indices from becoming overly oppressive compared to recent weeks. Moisture will gradually increase from mid to late week, leading to increasing afternoon thunderstorm coverage. LREF probabilities indicate a 50-70 percent chance of PWAT values exceeding 1.75 inches beginning Wednesday. This increase in moisture, combined with upper- level troughing should support greater chances for diurnal convection. Weak shortwaves embedded within the flow may provide additional forcing and further enhance coverage. Thursday currently appears to have the greatest potential for precipitation as the stalled boundary may become reactivated into the FA. However, there remains uncertainty in the evolution and placement of the front. At this time, a significant airmass change appears unlikely, with seasonably warm and humid conditions expected to persist through the period with daily convection chances. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR Conditions expected through the period. Drier air filtered into the area yesterday with low level moisture lacking at the terminals. As a result, restrictions are not expected to develop through the TAF period. Generally westerly winds around 5 to 10 knots expected through today shifting slightly more northwesterly this afternoon into evening. High resolution guidance favors any thunderstorm development to remain east of the terminals with lower than 30 percent thunderstorm probabilities so have left out any mention of tsra. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated storms each afternoon with higher coverage of storms expected by midweek. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ND AVIATION...96  888 FXUS63 KMQT 241051 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 651 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect today for the shoreline of Alger County due to strong winds and high waves creating dangerous rip currents and swimming conditions. - Fog is possible across much of the central and eastern U.P. tonight. - The next chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms arrives in the west on Tuesday, spreading east overnight and Wednesday before ending for most late Wednesday. - Generally seasonable temperatures are expected through the rest of this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 With clear skies overhead this morning, observation stations are already showing temperatures dropping into the 40s and even mid to upper 30s across the western half of the U.P., with the Baraga Plains RAWS site already down to 37F as of 1 AM EDT. Should this trend hold, there could be multiple spots in the western interior U.P. that see lows bottom out in the mid to potentially even lower 30s, allowing patchy frost to form (particularly elevated sfcs). In addition, there could be some patchy fog over the far west as warm air advection aloft moves overhead, but confidence on fog occurrence is still somewhat low even now given the lack of it being seen upstream in northern WI and MN on satellite. After the sun rises today, expect fairly calm and quiet weather as high pressure ridging moves overhead. While we should be warmer than we were yesterday, with antecedent cooler air taking time to move out of the area, thinking highs will generally stay within the 70s. Gusty NW winds over Lake Superior will keep dangerous waves and rip currents over the beaches of Alger County today, so another Beach Hazard Statement is in effect throughout the entirety of today over there. The swimming conditions along the Marquette County shoreline are better today due to the shore's geometry protecting it somewhat from NW'rly winds. Nevertheless, some rip currents and hazardous waves are still expected along the beaches of Marquette County, so swimmers should still exercise caution and not get into the water unless they are experienced swimmers as the rip currents and waves could still tire out people fast. Moving into tonight, expect the generally quiet weather to continue as clouds build in from the west with time via an approaching Clipper low. Given the continuing WAA, lows tonight are expected to not be as cool as they are this morning; that being said, some of the coldest spots in the interior central and east could drop down into the mid to upper 30s thanks to mostly clear skies for the overnight hours. In addition, with WAA continuing in the lower to mid-levels of the atmosphere, some fog is possible over mainly the interior central and east tonight as temperatures cool to around the dewpoint. Should the fog form, we could see visibilities of 1/2 mile or less, which could create traveling/visibility concerns for the morning commute for those going to work and/or school. Our next shot of rainfall looks to arrive over the western U.P. on Tuesday as the Clipper approaches. While global/medium range guidance is more reserved on the start time of the rainfall, some of the CAMs do show showers starting as early as the mid-to-late morning hours over the far west given the modest isentropic lift moving into the area. That being said, with not much diurnal instability to work with, I have my doubts as to rain chances starting that early. Therefore, have the precipitation chances capped at around 30% between 8 AM and 2 PM EDT over the west half on Tuesday. As better diurnal instability develops over the area and a LLJ develops and brings some support by the afternoon hours, shower and thunderstorm chances increase over the west half. While the best shearing and helicity are projected to be south of us in northern WI, thinking it may not be totally out of the realm of possibility for a stronger (but sub-severe) thunderstorm or two to occur. As the showers and storms continue and spread into the rest of the U.P. Tuesday night and Wednesday, expect the rainfall chances to become maximized to ~80 to 90% as the low's center moves through Lake Superior. The additional forcing from the low with PWATS 1.25 to 1.50 inches could bring heavy rainfall at times, although QPF guidance is fairly muted for the most part on rain totals with this event. Therefore, while it does seem like most, if not all, of the U.P. will see at least some rainfall, given the convective nature of the precipitation not everyone will see similar amounts; as of now, the NBM currently has a 50 to 99% of a quarter inch of rainfall occurring between Tuesday morning and Thursday morning, with the greatest chances over the east and interior west whereas the lowest chances are in the south central. The rainfall chances look to generally end over the area by late Wednesday as the Clipper lifts northeast towards James Bay. However, some CAA behind the low could kick-off some light lake effect rain showers over the area on Thursday, but accumulations would be very small as high pressure builds in from the west once more. High pressure ridging returns to the U.P. once again by Friday, allowing for dry weather to return to the area. Moving into this upcoming weekend there really isn't a good signal for the precipitation chances as some upper level ridging continues to build into the area, even as troughing starts to move back in at the sfc late this upcoming weekend. Nevertheless, expect the seasonable temperatures to continue on from this week on into next week as medium range guidance hints at a somewhat more active pattern continuing into early September. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 651 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions continue today and are expected to continue through tonight as high pressure moves overhead. While winds could be gusty over SAW, expect them to dwindle by the mid-afternoon hours and onwards. Tonight, we could see some FG at the terminals. However, with FG chances at 20% or less currently over the terminals, decided to not include it in the TAFs at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 221 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Northwest winds of 20 to 30 knots over Lake Superior and 20 to 25 knots over northern Green Bay and northwest Lake MI slowly dwindle to 15 knots or less by this evening as the center of high pressure ridging finally arrives over the area. However, as a Clipper low approaches Lake Superior on Tuesday, expect winds to pick up from the south over Lake MI, Green Bay, and eastern Lake Superior, with gusts of 20 to 30 knots being seen by Tuesday evening. In addition to the winds, showers and storms begin moving over western Lake Superior on Tuesday, continuing through the rest of the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday night through Wednesday before generally wrapping-up late Wednesday as the Clipper lifts towards James Bay. As this occurs, expect the winds to slowly become westerly, first over Lake Superior Wednesday morning before shifting westward over northern Green Bay and northwest Lake MI by Wednesday evening. As this occurs, expect the winds to die-down to 15 knots or less over northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake MI, whereas westerly winds of 20 to 25 knots continue over Lake Superior. CAA behind the Clipper is expected to veer the winds to the northwest, keeping the 20 to 25 knot winds over at least the eastern half of Lake Superior on Thursday as northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots develop over northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake MI. As high pressure builds in from the west late this week, expect the winds to die-down to 15 knots or less again by Thursday evening and to remain light into at least this upcoming weekend if not potentially longer. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ006. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TAP AVIATION...TAP MARINE...TAP  873 FXUS64 KHGX 241050 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 550 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory remains in effect. - Very hot conditions along with a risk of an isolated thunderstorm continues through Wednesday. - Chance of showers and thunderstorms increases later in the week as the heat eases somewhat. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1121 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The forecast through Wednesday remains unchanged due to the continued presence of strong mid/upper ridging aloft. Triple digit heat should reign supreme across inland regions, while highs at the beaches average in the low/mid 90s. Lower dew points will mix down to the surface during the afternoon. But even with this mixing, heat index values are expected to reach or exceed advisory criteria today, and possibly again tomorrow and Wednesday. There may be a little more in the way of clouds on Tuesday, which could help keep us a tad less hot and below advisory criteria. Regardless, hazardous heat will occur through Wednesday. An isolated shower/storm cannot be ruled out. Monday-Tuesday PoPs are ~10%. Global deterministic and ensemble guidance has trended towards a breakdown in the ridge during the second half of the week. This breakdown may be modest, with ensemble mean 500 MB heights only dropping from 595 dam to 592 dam. But the breakdown coupled with increasing disturbances aloft are leading to an upward trend in PoPs for the latter portion of the week (Thursday - Saturday). With increasing clouds and PoPs comes less hot temperatures. Most of the CWA is forecast to be in the seasonably miserable mid 90s by Friday and Saturday. The recent hot and dry spell has placed the area on a trajectory towards drought. So hopefully the increasingly wet signal late week is a trend that continues in future updates. Self && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 539 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Mostly VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period. SW winds this morning at 5-10 kts, then turning SSE by mid afternoon. Winds will turn SSW again tonight but a weak low level jet may keep wind speeds in the 5-10 kt range for much of the night. There's about a 10-15% chance for showers/storms today. Cotto && .MARINE... Issued at 1121 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A typical summertime pattern will continue through much of the next week. Overnight winds are expected to be southwesterly, potentially from the west during the predawn and morning hours. Then winds should become more southerly during the afternoon hours. Winds in the bays should average 10-15 knots with occasional gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon and early evening hours, before becoming lighter during the overnight hours. Meanwhile, offshore Gulf winds will be highest at night (10-15 knots gusting 20 knots) and lower during the day. Isolated shower or storm possible through Wednesday. Chance of showers and storms increases later in the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 103 77 101 77 / 10 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 102 80 100 80 / 10 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 91 84 91 84 / 10 10 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Self AVIATION...Cotto MARINE...Self  847 FXUS64 KSJT 241050 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 550 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for the Big Country this afternoon, with a Heat Advisory for the Concho Valley and Heartland areas. - A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for areas north of a San Angelo to San Saba line from late this morning through early evening. - Hot and mainly dry weather will persist through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 An upper level ridge remains centered over west Texas and southeastern New Mexico tonight. This will keep our weather hot and dry for the next 24 hours, and nearly identical to the past few days, with maybe a warming of a degree or two in a few locations. The other difference we might see is a slight uptick in wind speeds. Otherwise, temperatures will again range from the upper 90s to near 110 degrees. The hottest temperatures are expected in the Big Country, where we could see readings of 110+ degrees this afternoon. With those temperatures, an Extreme Heat Warning was issued, which will be in effect this afternoon through early evening. A Heat Advisory will also remain in effect for the Concho Valley and Heartland. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Expect hot and dry conditions across the area as a upper level ridge remains in control. Looks like will need Heat Advisories for much for Tuesday and maybe Wednesday across much of the area. Please follow heat safety precautions if you have to be outside during the afternoon hours. Highs will be mainly range in the upper 90s to near 108, mainly across the Big Country, expecting to have the hottest temperatures. Expect slightly cooler temperatures by the end of this week. There is a low chance for a few showers and thunderstorms by the middle of this week. The coverage may be a little better Thursday afternoon. Expect dry weather again by next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 549 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 No significant changes from the previous forecast for area TAFs. Southerly winds near 10 knots at most sites today, with a few gusts approaching 20 knots at KABI, and VFR conditions through tomorrow morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 108 80 106 79 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 105 76 104 75 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 104 73 103 73 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 106 76 104 75 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 108 79 106 78 / 0 0 0 10 Ozona 99 72 99 72 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 104 74 103 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for Callahan-Fisher-Haskell-Jones-Nolan-Shackelford- Taylor-Throckmorton. Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Irion-Mason-McCulloch-Runnels-San Saba-Sterling-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...20  849 FXUS65 KPSR 241050 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 350 AM MST Mon Aug 24 2026 .UPDATE...12Z Aviation Discussion && .KEY MESSAGES... - Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect through Saturday with daily Major to Extreme HeatRisk. - High temperatures will reach or exceed 110 degrees nearly every day this week, peaking right around daily records Tuesday through Thursday. - Monsoon storm chances for the upcoming workweek will be very limited with chances briefly coming to an end starting Tuesday before slowly returning by next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Early morning lingering showers and a few thunderstorms will gradually diminish by sunrise leaving a somewhat overturned atmosphere and slightly cooler temperatures across much of southern and central Arizona. The subtropical high, which is currently centered along the New Mexico/Texas border, is set to shift westward today into Tuesday with the center reaching western New Mexico on Tuesday. Drier air is already starting to move in from the south and this will continue through at least Tuesday, dropping low level mixing ratios to between 6-8 g/kg. This drier air in combination with increasing subsidence from the ridge will basically end rain chances beginning Tuesday. For today however, there should still be enough lingering moisture and not too high of CIN for a few isolated showers or weak storms across higher terrain areas across Arizona and southeast California. Rain chances should then fall to below 10% starting Tuesday and likely stay that way through Thursday with the ridge eventually moving directly over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico. The main forecast concern for the rest of the week will be the late August extreme heat. Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect for the majority of the area through Saturday with expectations of some expansion of the warning into higher terrain locations for the latter half of the week. The slightly rain-cooled air should keep daytime highs today mostly in a 106-110 degree range, but that will quickly change beginning Tuesday. The drying conditions and increasing heights for the middle part of the week are expected to push daytime highs well above 110 degrees. The latest NBM temperatures have trended downward over the past couple of days of runs, but with the NBM's recent track record of under doing temperatures, we have bumped highs up a degree or two. Daytime highs are likely to reach 112-116 degrees Tuesday through Thursday, potentially tying or breaking a few daily records. Very warm overnight lows are also forecast, eventually leading to fairly widespread Extreme HeatRisk by Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Ensemble guidance favors some weakening of the subtropical high starting Friday as it starts to shift back to the east. This shift assumes a Pacific trough moving into the Northwestern U.S. late week. Models also favor some gradual moisture advection by Friday and lasting through the upcoming weekend. Given the expected increase in moisture and weakening subsidence, rain chances should return as early as Friday but more likely over the weekend. NBM/WPC PoPs show 10-15% chances over high terrain areas Friday and Saturday before increasing and expanding into the lower deserts by Sunday. These PoPs may be underdone somewhat considering what the latest models runs show, so we anticipate higher PoPs soon from the NBM. Temperatures should also begin to improve late week and through the weekend as moisture increases and heights gradually lower. The latest forecast highs still maintain or even top 110 degrees through Saturday before dropping to below 110 degrees by Sunday or Monday of next week. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1045Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major aviation concerns are expected through this TAF period. The storms that brought gusty winds, thunderstorms and reduced visibilities last night have moved away from the terminals are is now expected to go back to mostly diurnal tendencies with periods of VRB and an early westerly shift by 18Z this morning. Winds will generally be aob 10kts, however some elevated wind speeds with gusts in the low-mid teens will be possible later this afternoon/evening. FEW- SCT high cloud decks will be common throughout the period. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation concerns under FEW-SCT mid/high cloud decks can be expected throughout the TAF period. Winds will generally be out of the southeast at KIPL and will fluctuate between the south- southeast to southwest at KBLH. Overall wind speeds will range between 8-15 kts, highest at KBLH. && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and seasonally dry conditions will prevail for much if not all of the coming week. Strong high pressure will settle over the region by midweek with gradual drying conditions. Minimum RHs today will mostly fall between 20-30%, before dropping back into the teens starting Tuesday. Temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees above normal, with lower desert highs eclipsing 110 degrees nearly every afternoon. Expect overall light winds following typical diurnal tendencies with some modest afternoon upslope gustiness. && .CLIMATE... Record highs: Date Phoenix Yuma El Centro ---- ------- ---- --------- Aug 24 115 in 2020 119 in 1985 117 in 1985 Aug 25 113 in 2011 116 in 1962 117 in 1962 Aug 26 117 in 2011 115 in 2020 115 in 1981 Aug 27 114 in 2023 120 in 1981 117 in 1981 Aug 28 117 in 2023 118 in 2023 117 in 2009 Aug 29 116 in 2023 117 in 1954 117 in 2005 && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ530>555-559- 560. CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ562-565>567- 569-570. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kuhlman LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...Ryan/Lojero FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman CLIMATE...18/Kuhlman  056 FXUS61 KRNK 241056 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 656 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation Forecast Updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Drier cooler weather remains through the middle of the week, with next rain chances returning Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Drier cooler weather remains through the middle of the week, with next rain chances returning Thursday. Cool, slightly below-average temperatures will linger through Tuesday as high pressure and an upper-level trough hold firm over the eastern region. By Wednesday, that trough will finally shift northeast, allowing heights to rise while the quasi- stationary Bermuda high slides eastward. Warm, humid air from the western Atlantic will surge back in under the influence of the Bermuda high, instantly reviving mid-week summer mugginess. Late Wednesday into Thursday, an upper-level impulse will sweep southeast across the northern Great Lakes, dragging a surface cold front toward the area. This front will bring a return of rain and thunderstorm chances by Thursday afternoon and evening, though the exact timing of its arrival will ultimately determine any threat of severe weather or flash flooding. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... For today, pilots can anticipate unrestricted visibility and smooth flying conditions. Steady west-to-northwesterly winds will pick up by the afternoon, blowing between 5 to 10 knots with occasional gusts reaching up to 20 knots. As twilight settles and the atmosphere cools, those winds will drop off completely, leaving calm, quiet air across all fields overnight. Tonight will begin under VFR for almost all region terminals, though early risers near KLWB may encounter a brief morning veil of patchier fog and lowered ceilings that temporarily drops conditions to MVFR to IFR levels. As soon as the sun breaks over the horizon Tuesday, the stubborn dry airmass will quickly sweep those lingering vapors away, leaving wide-open skies overhead. OUTLOOK... Drier airmass will sink into the area today and remain into the middle of next week. Should be mainly VFR aside from any late night fog, mainly KLWB. Next system appears to bring some chances for storms Thursday with possibility for sub-VFR cigs/vsbys. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RCS AVIATION...RCS  067 FXUS63 KARX 241057 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 557 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures and humidity gradually increasing through midweek with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. - Thunderstorm chances return Tuesday afternoon and evening. Some could be strong, mainly across the northwest half of our forecast area. - Lingering showers possible on Wednesday, with next chance of rain over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Fog potential this morning, gradual increase in warmth/moisture Cirrus from convection over North Dakota will continue to spill into the area early this morning. This complicates the forecast for potential fog development in valleys and low-lying areas, in what would otherwise be a decent synoptic setup with high pressure overhead. But evening HRRR runs trended toward some breezier winds of 10-15 knots in the 500-1500 ft layer. All this suggesting that fog may be more patchy this morning. There is an outside chance some decaying convective showers from the Northern Plains would be steered southeastward in the upper flow to clip areas west of the Mississippi River with some showers this afternoon. Several 24.00Z CAMs are showing this, but the HRRR is mainly dry. Daytime highs will be warming a bit today into midweek as southerly return flow develops. Moisture will also gradually be on the increase ahead of a pronounced upper shortwave trough progged to cut across northern Minnesota/Wisconsin toward Wednesday. Dewpoints will rise back into the 60s, and with a feed of Gulf moisture there is a >70% likelihood for precipitable water to climb above 1.25 inches by Tuesday afternoon. Storm chances on Tuesday, some could be strong Strong storm chances on Tuesday will hinge on magnitude of instability and its ramifications on how robust updrafts can become. GEFS 23.18Z probabilities for CAPE >1000 J/kg range from about 60-80% west of the Mississippi River to 50% or less in western Wisconsin. This was a slight decrease from the 12Z run as models are grappling with a potential EML and less favorable mid-level lapse rates. Capping and instability profiles will be most favorable for convection over our northwestern counties. That's also where favorable deep layer shear is most likely, with elongated hodographs perpendicular to an approaching cold front. Thus, it bears watching how all these elements will ultimately come together Tuesday afternoon-evening, with some strong to possibly severe storms looking to be a possibility. Rest of the week Cyclonic flow aloft persists into Wednesday which could foster some diurnal shower activity. The upper shortwave departs by Thursday with 850mb temps decreasing slightly overhead through Friday. The overall pattern shifts heading into next weekend as warm air advection ramps up. This will support a return of rain/storm chances but details are pretty murky that far out. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 551 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 River valley fog/stratus has developed this morning with latest observations keeping this out of LSE. With the sun beginning to rise, have continued to keep this out of the LSE TAF. Otherwise, VFR conditions with either variable or southwesterly winds are expected to prevail with increasing mid to high level clouds. Should those clouds fail to move over the region and/or dissipate after 00z Tuesday, more extensive river valley fog would likely develop. For now, that is not expected, so have left any hints at valley fog out of the final 6 hours of the TAFs. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kurz AVIATION...Ferguson  054 FXUS63 KLSX 241056 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 556 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably warm temperatures in the 80s will continue this week. There is a chance for thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday ahead of a weak cold front. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 A high amplitude upper pattern remains in place over the CONUS with a ridge centered over the Southwest U.S. extending north through the Plains, and a trough over the Great Lakes Lakes extending through the Southeast. The trough drifts east a bit today, which also causes the surface high currently over the Midwest to drift east into the Great Lakes Region and Ohio Valley. This will result in little change to the sensible weather at the surface, other than the winds turning to a more east or southeast direction. There are some isolated showers over western Missouri that are likely being forced by low level moisture convergence on the eastern periphery of a low level jet originating over the southeast Plains, however it's unlikely this precip will get too far east this morning before the low level jet weakens. Highs today should be very similar to yesterday's in the low to mid 80s under a partly to mostly sunny sky. Temperatures tonight look to be a bit warmer than this morning due to the continuing east-southeast flow with lows bottoming out in the low to mid 60s in most locations. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 The latest guidance continues to show a highly amplified long wave pattern over the CONUS at least through Friday. The upper trough continues drifting east through midweek which allows temperatures to continue to warm back into the mid and upper 80s by Wednesday. A short wave moves through the Midwest into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by late Wednesday afternoon/evening. This reorients the long wave trough back to the west and pushes a cold front south through the Mississippi Valley. Models print out light QPF ahead of the front Tuesday night and Wednesday, however the forcing isn't particularly strong Tuesday night, and elevated instability is limited. While CAPE increases to 2000+ J/Kg ahead of the front on Wednesday, there's enough CINH ahead of the front to make precip chances questionable. The going 20-30 PoPs look reasonable given the cap and relatively weak forcing, but if the cap breaks there could certainly be more widespread thunderstorms. Deep-layer wind shear will be around 30kts, so any storms that do form could be strong to severe. The airmass behind the cold front isn't that much cooler, so highs Thursday and Friday will likely only be 2-3 degrees cooler than Wedneday's. However it does look drier, so lows drop as much as 5-7 degrees back into the upper 50s and low 60s across much of the area by Friday morning. The long wave pattern begins to attenuate Friday, and by Saturday the flow aloft is quasi-zonal. Deterministic guidance is pretty insistent that temperatures will rise back into the upper 80s and low 90s Saturday and some locations will see mid 90s by Sunday afternoon. The LREF agrees, and even the lower quartile high temperatures are in the low to mid 90s Sunday afternoon. That being said, the IQR is fairly wide at 6-8 degrees. With that in mind confidence in the temperature forecast for Saturday and Sunday isn't particularly high. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 553 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 River fog will locally reduce the visibility to 1SM or less through 13Z this morning. There are also isolated light showers over parts of central Missouri which will likely persist through 13Z-14Z, although it's unlikely the rain will be heavy enough to reduce the visibility. Otherwise, VFR flight conditions and light east to southeast winds will prevail through the period. There may be river fog again tonight, though current indications are that conditions will be less favorable than this morning. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Carney LONG TERM...Carney AVIATION...Carney  044 FXUS63 KMPX 241056 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 556 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers & thunderstorms possible tonight into Tuesday morning, mainly across central & western Minnesota. - Another round of thunderstorms is possible Tuesday afternoon & evening, primarily east of Interstate 35. A few strong to severe storms are possible. - Quiet & seasonable weather returns Wednesday through Friday, with rain chances increasing again next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 408 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Quiet conditions across Minnesota & western Wisconsin overnight, despite two areas of thunderstorms ongoing across the eastern Dakotas. These clusters of thunderstorms will wane into the morning as they move eastwards, with perhaps some lingering light rain across southwest Minnesota through mid to late morning. Temperatures will again be around 80 degrees this afternoon, except across southern Minnesota where cloud cover will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler. Dew points increase through the day, especially across western Minnesota, leading more muggy conditions compared to over the weekend. A shortwave passes over the region tonight into Tuesday with a cold front passing through the region through the day on Tuesday. Overnight, a cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop tonight across eastern North Dakota. These storms could initially contain large hail & damaging winds, but are expected to weaken as they move eastwards into Minnesota after midnight. High resolution models are still varied on just how long these thunderstorms may hold together overnight into Tuesday morning, with the best chances for any rain expected across west-central Minnesota. Cloud cover from these lingering showers & thunderstorms could linger into the afternoon, potentially limiting the instability present for a potential second round of storms Tuesday late Tuesday afternoon & evening. Recent guidance has generally slowed down the passage of the cold front, which could give far-eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin more time to destabilize Tuesday afternoon. Dew points in the low to mid 60s combined with temperatures warming into the 80s could support around 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE, while 30-40 kts of deep shear will be more than enough for storms to organize. If we can realize this environment, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms would likely develop along the front during the afternoon & move eastwards through the evening, with damaging winds & large hail the main threats. So while confidence is increasing that at least a few strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon & evening, the magnitude & coverage of the threat still depends heavily on how quickly the atmosphere can recover during the day. The cold front exits into Wisconsin Tuesday night with cooler & drier northwest flow returning Wednesday. A few showers could linger Wednesday, mainly closer to the upper low across northern Minnesota & Wisconsin, but most of our area should trend dry through the day. High pressure then brings quiet weather Thursday into Friday with highs generally around 80 & comfortable humidity. The pattern looks to become more active again heading into next weekend as multiple shortwaves move through the northern Plains & Upper Midwest. This should bring increasing chances for showers & thunderstorms sometime Friday night through Sunday, but timing differences within the guidance lead to low confidence in the details this far out. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 548 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Mostly cloudy this afternoon with patchy mid & upper level cloud cover, in addition to diurnal cumulus. Southerly winds around 10 kts during the late morning & afternoon with a few gusts up to 20 kts. Overnight, scattered showers & thunderstorms are expected to spread eastwards out of the eastern Dakotas. Forecast confidence is low on just how widespread and robust the precipitation will be, so have only introduced PROB30s across western Minnesota for now. KMSP...Low, but non-zero, chances for a scattered shower or thunderstorm around sunrise Tuesday morning. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE PM...VFR, slight chance IFR/-TSRA. Wind SW 10G20 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 15G25 kts. THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...ETA  120 FXUS62 KCHS 241059 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 659 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation section was updated to reflect the 12Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday. - 2)Increasing rain chances mid to late week with the potential for locally heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday. The overall pattern for today will be rather similar to yesterday, except that a rather subtle shortwave is expected to eject over the area during the mid to late afternoon. This subtle shortwave should result in slightly increased moisture across our area as PWATS climb to around 1.9 to possibly 2 inches along the coast. This coupled with very subtle ascent across the area and overall convective coverage should be a little more scattered than it was today. Given the better coverage and slightly better moisture, storms should be able to sustain themselves a little better leading to more clusters of storms developing along the seabreeze. However, the best ascent appears to miss just to the north of the area across eastern North Carolina into northeastern South Carolina. With this progression expect storms to likely start north of the area during the mid-afternoon with most of the area remaining dry through at least 4 pm. As the seabreeze moves slowly inland and boundaries from the north slowly move southward, we likely see the seabreeze begin to zipper from Charleston southward towards Savannah by the early evening. MLCAPE values look to range in the 3000-3500 range resulting in likely potent updrafts. With slightly less dry air, storms should be able to survive this environment unlike today when any attempt of a storm just fizzled as dry air entrained into the storm drying it out. With the upper shortwave in the area, some weak shear will be present in the 20 to 25 knots range which could support more multicellular clusters that would increase the potential for damaging winds across the area. With PWATS approaching 1.9 inches and DCAPE values in the 1200 to 1500 J/KG range, any storms that do develop will pose the threat of damaging winds. As a result, the entire area is under a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe storms. Tuesday looks fairly similar to today, except that our moisture looks to be even more substantial with PWATs increasing in the 2 inch range as yet another wave moves into the area. Coverage looks to be slightly better on Tuesday; however, with the deeper moisture the overall signal for damaging winds might be a little lower. However, if storms are able to cluster up with time a few strong to severe wind gusts could be possible given PWATS approaching 2 to 2.1 inches allowing for heavy precipitation loading in storms. The more water in the middle of the cloud the more weight comes crashing down and the more weight the stronger the winds could be despite DCAPE values only in the 700 to 1000 J/KG range. KEY MESSAGE 2: Increasing rain chances mid to late week with the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Broad mid level troughing will reside over the eastern U.S. mid to late week, with a series of embedded shortwaves progged to pass through the region. At the surface, a weak boundary will drift into the region and likely stall in the vicinity. Deeper moisture will return with ensemble means indicating PWats reaching near 2 inches by late week. Given this and some larger scale forcing in play, in addition to mesoscale boundaries such as the sea breeze, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorm are expected to develop each day. The threat for organized severe weather looks low, but a stronger storm or two cannot be ruled out. In addition, with slower storm motions, pockets of heavy rainfall will be possible which could lead to localized flooding concerns. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 24/12z TAFs: VFR conditions will prevail through much of the forecast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop during the late afternoon hours mainly along the coast. Confidence in storms is highest around KSAV this afternoon; however, storms could occur in and around CHS/JZI as well between 21Z and 00Z. Winds will remain light out of the southwest throughout the period becoming light and variable overnight. Extended Aviation Outlook: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon potentially bringing temporary restrictions at the terminals. && .MARINE... Today through Saturday: South to southwest winds will persist through the period. Conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels, with winds averaging 15 knots or less and seas 2 to 3 feet. Any showers or thunderstorms that move over the waters have the potential to bring higher wind gusts and frequent lightning. && Record High Minimum Temperatures: August 24: KCHS: 76/2010 KCXM: 80/1975 August 25: KCHS: 77/1982 August 28: KCHS: 77/2020 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Black/ETM  094 FXUS63 KOAX 241057 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 557 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight into Monday morning. Severe weather is not expected. - Clouds and rain chances will keep temperatures cooler Monday, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. - Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances continue into the work week, with high temperatures generally in the low to mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The upper pattern revealed by water vapor imagery is dominated by the persistent ridge centered over west Texas and a deep cut- off low spinning cyclonically over the Great Lakes. Betwixt the two, Iowa and Nebraska are under northwest flow aloft. Radar returns this evening have been slowly tapering as they've drifted southeast into a drier and more stable airmass. Temps and dewpoints are in the 60s as winds have become light and variable. It's a little muggy but pleasant outside. This would be a good set-up for fog, but for the increasing clouds expected overnight. Any development should be patchy at best. More showers and storms are expected to develop soon as the nocturnal jet gets act together. The jet will reach farther north than normal, likely initiating the storms in South Dakota. These storms are progged to push south-southeast overnight, passing through the Yankton/Sioux City area around 5am (60% PoPs), and through Omaha around 9am (35% PoPs) as odds fade. The area should be dry by lunch. Again, it'll be a bit cloudier than typical, leaving highs ranging form the upper 70s to mid-80s. Monday night should be dry. .TUESDAY... Tuesday will be warmer with southerly flow picking up the pace ahead of an approaching cold front / shortwave. Expect highs entirely in the 80s. The cold front is tied to a system just north of the Canadian border leaving best forcing for ascent across Minnesota and points north. There will also be increased severe odds west of here tied to a shortwave. Our best chances of thunder is tied to the unstable airmass that develops as humidity streams north in the increasing heat. PWAT values will be above the 90th percentile (NAEFS). However, PoPs have been almost cut in half over the past 48 hours (70% -> 40%). Some heavy rain is possible, but ensemble guidance now has best odds of 1" or more west of this CWA. That's where the excessive rainfall outlook (ERO by WPC) is currently lit up. (Category 1 of 4). .WEDNESDAY... The last of Tuesday's showers should be wrapped up by sunrise Wednesday and it's the only day of the forecast currently forecast to be completely precip free. That seems unlikely to change with a sfc high passing through. .THE REST OF THE FORECAST... The upper pattern remains mostly unchanged through the work week before zonal flow sets up early next week. We'll remain in the path of a continued parade of waves rounding the southern ridge. PoPs return to the forecast late on Thursday (20%) and continue daily into next week. Friday's chances are best (30-60%). As a result, temps should slowly climb over the course of the work week's second half, with some 90s popping up on the map by Saturday. The first five days of September are highlighted by the CPC as having a 20-40% risk of extreme heat (90th+ percentile). The heat is expected to linger. The 6-10 day outlook leans hot, the 8-14 day outlook leans warmer than normal, as does the forecast for "weeks 3-4" (9/5-9/18). 2026 is on track to be the fifth warmest on record at Omaha and September looks to keep pace. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 551 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Thunderstorm timing is the main focus in this TAF period as stormsmay linger at OFK through 13Z or so. While not an absolute guarantee for TS at OMA or LNK, tried to highlight the most likely 1-2 hour window for storm activity...with a better chance for TSRA at OMA than LNK. Otherwise, VFR will be persistent outside of storms. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...Barjenbruch