453 FXUS65 KABQ 240900 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1246 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Some storms may turn severe during the afternoon and evening today through Thursday along and east of the central mountain chain, where large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. - A risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will develop with storms over northeast and east central areas both Tuesday and Wednesday. - Moderate-to-high heat risk will impact much of central and eastern New Mexico during the first half of the week, then spread to western areas as well during the latter half of the week with record and near-record high temperatures each day. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1246 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 With a 597 DAM high pressure system setting daily maximum 500 mb height records over the state, high temperatures will continue to trend upward most places today, then a few degrees warmer again in most central and western locations on Tuesday. Record and near- record high temperatures are forecast both days as readings peak around 5-13 degrees above 1991-2020 averages. The NBM, which has done a pretty good job on the high temperature forecast for the eastern plains the last two days, predicts a high of 105 F in Roswell today. Will continue the Heat Advisory there from 12-8 pm. This will be the third day in a row with a high temperature greater than or equal to 103 F in Roswell, and Tuesday will make the fourth. Otherwise, the focus for showers and thunderstorms will shift to northeast and east central areas this afternoon and evening, then along and east of the entire central mountain chain Tuesday afternoon and evening, as a series of moist backdoor fronts enters the state. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will also continue over western areas, where wetting footprints will shrink in size as humidities trend lower. There has been an uptick in new lightning caused fire starts recently, and this trend will likely continue Monday and Tuesday west of the central mountain chain. Farther east, shear and instability profiles will be favorable for some strong-to-severe storms during the afternoon and evening both today and Tuesday over northeast and east central areas, and potentially over southeast areas as well on Tuesday. Further, PWATS near and above 1.20" over eastern areas today, and especially Tuesday, will enable some thunderstorms to produce locally heavy rainfall. NBM 90th percentile QPF indicates a few storms will be capable of producing nearly 2 inches of rainfall over northeast and east central areas on Tuesday afternoon and evening. This will create sufficient antecedent moisture for an increased risk of flash flooding from storms along and east of the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia, and Manzano Mountains on Wednesday afternoon and evening. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1246 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Convection from storms in the east on Tuesday will send outflow boundaries westward into central and western parts of the state Tuesday night increasing humidities there enough for increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. The center of high pressure aloft will also sink over the southwest NM border on Wednesday as a somewhat strong shortwave trough passes southeastward over the northeast half of the state. Shear and instability will again be favorable for severe storms along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains on Wednesday. PWATs will remain elevated over the east as well with a continued risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains eastward, where NBM 90th percentile QPF suggest a few of the stronger storms will again be capable of producing over 1 inch of rainfall. Behind Wednesday's upper level trough some drier air will begin to filter over the state from the northwest with a downtick in storm coverage on Thursday over northwest and west central areas. Elsewhere, scattered to isolated showers and storms will return Thursday afternoon and evening, but rain intensity should decrease some. Downward trend in storm coverage and rainfall intensity will continue areawide on Friday as the high pressure system aloft flattens out and elongates along and east-west ridge axis over southern NM. However, models depict the high pressure center shifting eastward over NM Saturday, and all the way to the Mississippi River Valley Sunday, allowing better monsoon moisture for thunderstorms to travel north and northeastward over the forecast area. Temperature-wise, record and near-record high temperatures will continue daily through the end of the work week, despite a few to 5 degrees of cooling east of the continental divide on Wednesday. Temperatures will begin to trend upward as drier air moves in Thursday, then continue to do so most places through Saturday, before trending cooler with the increased monsoon moisture over central and western areas on Sunday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to gradually diminish through the late night hours. On Monday, scattered-to-isolated showers and thunderstorms will return to western and northern areas. A moist backdoor front will produce a north and northeast wind shift on the northeast plains during the morning, then the front will serve as a focus for storms over northeast and east central areas during the afternoon and evening hours. During the afternoon and evening, some storms on the eastern plains along and north of I-40, and as far west as the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountain, will probably turn severe by producing large hail and damaging winds. Farther west, a few of the stronger storms will be capable of producing erratic wind gusts up to 45 KT. Storm motion on Sunday afternoon and evening will generally be toward the northeast and east around 5-10 KT, except along and east of the central mountain chain where most storms should move toward the east and southeast around 5-15 KT. Finally, record and near-record high temperatures will make density altitude an important consideration for aviation operations near complex terrain this afternoon and early evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1246 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Today and Tuesday, pockets of critically low minimum humidity will decrease over east central areas while increasing central and northwest. Increasing Gulf moisture on the eastern plains during the first half of the week should spread into western areas well Wednesday due to thunderstorm outflows moving in that direction Tuesday evening. The latest model runs have weakened the gap wind through the central mountain chain Tuesday evening, but some locally strong winds will still be possible downwind of thunderstorms below canyons opening into the central valley from the east. Until modest Gulf moisture pushes into western areas mid-week, the size of wetting footprints west of the Rio Grande will continue to decrease today and again Tuesday. Besides the risk of new fire starts over western areas early this week, the main fire weather concern will be gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflow all week long. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 95 63 96 62 / 5 5 5 0 Dulce........................... 91 51 91 51 / 10 10 20 5 Cuba............................ 90 59 91 58 / 20 20 10 20Gallup.......................... 91 53 91 54 / 20 10 20 20 El Morro........................ 87 55 87 54 / 30 20 30 20 Grants.......................... 90 55 91 55 / 20 20 20 20 Quemado......................... 87 57 89 57 / 20 10 30 20 Magdalena....................... 89 64 90 64 / 20 10 20 10 Datil........................... 86 58 87 59 / 20 20 20 10 Reserve......................... 94 58 96 59 / 10 10 20 10 Glenwood........................ 99 63 100 64 / 10 5 20 5 Chama........................... 84 51 84 51 / 30 20 30 10 Los Alamos...................... 86 63 86 62 / 40 20 40 30 Pecos........................... 89 59 89 57 / 20 10 30 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 85 56 85 54 / 20 30 40 40 Red River....................... 76 46 75 46 / 30 30 50 50 Angel Fire...................... 80 40 80 38 / 40 30 50 40 Taos............................ 88 55 88 54 / 20 30 30 30 Mora............................ 86 55 85 53 / 30 20 50 40 Espanola........................ 94 62 94 62 / 10 10 20 30 Santa Fe........................ 89 62 90 61 / 10 10 20 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 92 60 92 60 / 10 10 10 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 95 68 96 69 / 5 10 10 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 96 69 97 68 / 5 10 10 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 98 66 99 67 / 5 10 10 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 97 69 97 69 / 5 10 10 20 Belen........................... 98 65 100 66 / 5 5 5 10 Bernalillo...................... 98 67 98 67 / 5 10 10 20 Bosque Farms.................... 98 64 99 65 / 5 5 10 10 Corrales........................ 98 68 99 68 / 5 10 10 20 Los Lunas....................... 98 65 99 66 / 5 5 5 10 Placitas........................ 93 66 94 66 / 5 10 10 20 Rio Rancho...................... 97 68 98 68 / 5 10 10 20 Socorro......................... 100 69 101 69 / 10 5 5 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 90 63 91 62 / 10 10 20 20 Tijeras......................... 91 64 92 63 / 10 10 20 20 Edgewood........................ 92 60 93 60 / 10 10 20 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 94 56 94 56 / 10 10 20 20 Clines Corners.................. 90 59 90 58 / 20 10 20 30 Mountainair..................... 92 60 93 59 / 10 10 20 20 Gran Quivira.................... 91 61 92 60 / 10 5 20 20 Carrizozo....................... 95 67 97 67 / 5 10 20 10 Ruidoso......................... 88 63 89 60 / 10 10 30 10 Capulin......................... 87 56 85 54 / 40 40 60 60 Raton........................... 91 54 89 53 / 40 40 60 50 Springer........................ 93 56 91 54 / 30 30 60 50 Las Vegas....................... 89 55 87 53 / 30 20 50 40 Clayton......................... 97 63 92 62 / 30 50 50 60 Roy............................. 93 61 91 59 / 30 30 40 60 Conchas......................... 100 67 98 65 / 20 20 20 50 Santa Rosa...................... 97 66 96 64 / 10 20 20 40 Tucumcari....................... 102 68 99 64 / 10 20 20 60 Clovis.......................... 102 69 99 66 / 10 10 20 40 Portales........................ 103 68 101 66 / 10 10 20 30 Fort Sumner..................... 102 69 100 67 / 10 10 10 30 Roswell......................... 105 72 104 71 / 5 5 5 5 Picacho......................... 99 67 98 65 / 5 5 10 5 Elk............................. 96 64 96 62 / 5 5 10 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...44  974 FXUS63 KAPX 240907 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 507 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lingering Breezy, Drizzly Conditions Today... - Rain/storm chances return midweek... && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 357 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Broad ridge remains in place over the southwestern US...but northern axis is being shunted eastward into the Upper Midwest attm as an upper low tracks across southern Canada, deepening as it goes. 560dm 500mb low encompasses the Lower Great Lakes, centered just east of Georgian Bay...with a 1003mb occluded surface low as a response. Cold air mass (+8C at 850mb overhead attm) associated with this feature resulting in a tight thermal gradient and attendant 100+kt upper jet wrapping from Lake Superior through the Mid-Atlantic, and up through New England and eastern Canada. Return flow through the Plains aiding in a plume of moisture stretching from central Canada ahead of aforementioned upstream trough, down into the Lower MS Valley and around to the Canadian coast, along/ahead of a surface boundary from disturbance in Saskatchewan...wrapping back around the upper low over eastern Canada. Warm/moist advection wrapping around the backside of the low into the Upper Great Lakes, with strong low- level flow through the Soo into Lake Huron. Area of stratiform rain wrapping down across the eastern half of the CWA attm with a few NW flow lake effect/enhanced showers showing their face as of 5z near and west of I-75. Ridge axis to slide overhead today...and will expect the influence of the upper low and filling surface low to further wane as we go through the day. Upstream upper low crests the longwave ridge axis Tuesday and begins to track southeastward into the Upper Midwest...bringing our next shot at rain/storms. This feature appears to slow a bit, crossing the Upper Great Lakes at some point Wednesday/Wednesday night. Upstream ridging strengthens over central Canada in its wake...with some energy attempting to enter western Canada...and an upper low developing over Hudson Bay that should try to scoop up our midweek system. This suggests we will remain in the presence of a baroclinic zone for late week...and with cool/cold, cyclonic flow influencing our weather again, would anticipate unsettled weather will prevail. Attm...quite a bit of uncertainty in the evolution of the forecast for the end of next week, depending on when Pacific energy attempts to eject through the flow, which should increase return flow through the central US and should keep the unsettled idea going into the end of August. Ridge axis over central Canada may get pinched quite tightly, but there are some signals it may try to hold on going into next weekend...and will certainly need to keep an eye on this for some kind of blocking pattern to develop to our north. FORECAST DETAILS... Lingering breezy conditions and rain showers today...Strongest winds will be this morning into early afternoon, with sustained winds remaining around 10-15kts, but the pressure gradient will be diminishing, and think there is a reasonable shot we could end up with light/variable winds after dark tonight as high pressure builds in. Plume of richer moisture (both in an absolute and relative sense) looks slow to depart, especially northeast Lower, and think this is where there will be a better shot at seeing more persistent rain/drizzle today...though not impossible things could stay a little more drizzly near Gaylord with northwest flow upsloping through the day, and there could be an uptick in coverage in the afternoon with a niblet of PV looking to swing through. However, there are not terribly strong signals for forcing attm, and have suspicions we may not end up with much more than scattered/broken stratocu. Rain/storms Tuesday night-Wednesday...We could start to see the first inklings of at least mid/high clouds by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the next system...though not impossible some rain showers may try to sneak in during this time. Better theta-e advection enters the scene Tuesday evening into Tuesday night as the system looks to take shape a little better upstream ahead of the digging trough, and this this is the more likely timeframe for rain and thunderstorms to move in...perhaps as some sort of upstream convective feature/dying convective feature that crosses the lake? Though this could bring a warm nose that could take most of the day to overcome...but it currently appears we have potential for several hundred joules of elevated instability to work with, which could become surface-based in the afternoon if we warm enough. With marginal (30ish kts, give or take) deep-layer shear in play, think we will need to keep an eye out for some storm organization as well. Absolute moisture increases again along/ahead of the associated cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, perhaps up towards 1.5in...and with signals for reasonable synoptic forcing to work with, and perhaps not overly fast storm motions...will need to monitor for heavy rain potential right on into Wednesday night. Appears the most likely area for heavier rainfall will be the Yoop, closer to the better forcing with potential for a niblet to lift out ahead of the main trough (sort of a Maddox Synoptic Type heavy rainfall event, from a pattern recognition standpoint...though we lack the jet coupling usually involved in that setup). Attm...probabilistic guidance suggests there is a 20-40 percent chance of some portion of the EUP seeing an inch of rain in 24hrs during the Wednesday timeframe...but still have a couple days to nail down some of the finer details a little better and hone in on any higher QPF bullseyes. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 501 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR for western terminals, and MVFR for eastern terminals. These degraded conditions are due to -RA and low cigs with bases around 2kft. Northwest winds have remained elevated overnight, with consistent 10 to 15kts and occasional G15 to 20kts (KTVC/KMBL are exceptions with winds AOB 10kts). Winds will quickly strengthen after 12z, becoming 10 to 20kts with G20 to 25kts. These will linger through 00z for eastern terminals (diminishing a couple hours early for western terminals). Little to no chances for additional -RA after 18z at any terminal, paving the way for VFR conditions. Building confidence for BR/FG after 06z for most terminals, however still uncertainty with if vis and cigs will drop enough for categorical impacts. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ016-020- 099. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ018-024. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ346. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ321- 322. && $$ DISCUSSION...FEF AVIATION...ELD  083 FXUS65 KBOU 240909 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 309 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms through Thursday. A few storms could become severe, particularly for the eastern plains. - Slightly cooler with near normal temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday. - Gradual drying and hotter temperatures by the end of the week and through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/... Issued at 305 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Current surface observations show breezy winds (30-40 mph) across the Front Range mountains due to increased flow aloft. Expect breezy winds to continue throughout the morning, particularly off the Cheyenne Ridge. With a slight decrease in moisture due to the west/northwest flow aloft, shower and thunderstorm coverage may be more limited today. However, CAMs still favor convection initiating around 1/2 PM across the Front Range mountains, and tracking east onto the I-25 Corridor and adjacent plains. Model Skew-T soundings favor the inverted-v profile with DCAPE values reaching up to 1200- 1400 J/kg. This means any high-based storm that does develop is capable of producing strong outflow winds. Most gusts should stay below severe limits (40-55 mph), but can't rule out a few 60-65 mph gusts. In addition, there is a conditional severe weather threat for the far northeastern plains later in the afternoon/evening. CAMs favor thunderstorms to develop along a dryline in the wake of a surface trough. Models continue to disagree where the dryline sets up, but if it can recede into the far northeastern plains, a few supercells could impact that area. With better shear/instability profiles, hail and strong winds will be the main threats. On Tuesday, a weak cold front will move through the area, which will bring more seasonable temperatures. Forecasted highs should get up to the high 80s across the plains. Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop in the afternoon. The severe threat does not look that impressive, as overall instability looks limited compared to farther east in Nebraska and Kansas. However, these high-based storms still could produce strong outflow winds, as DCAPE values should get up to 1200-1300 J/kg. The "cooler" temperatures should last through Wednesday, with highs reaching up to the mid-to-high 80s across the plains. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected again for the high terrain and plains. Modeled soundings show more favorable shear profiles, which would support a few strong/severe storms for the I-25 Corridor and adjacent plains. For the later half of the week, ensemble guidance favors heat rebuilding over the area, with temperatures reaching back up the mid- 90s by Friday and Saturday. The upper level ridge shoddily slide back west, which will start cutting off our moisture coming into the region. However, there should still be enough moisture to support isolated-to-scattered afternoon thunderstorms. By the end of the weekend, guidance does hint at the upper level ridge weakening and shifting east due to a shortwave trough entering the Pacific northwest. With west/southwest flow aloft, moisture should begin filtering in again, with increase in shower and thunderstorm activity towards the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday/... Issued at 1141 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Drainage flow has now returned at all TAF sites and should continue into mid-morning hours, before a light (under 8 kts) and generally more westerly wind takes over. Short-range guidance does indicate downsloping winds to briefly reach BJC between 13-17Z, so have introduced a TEMPO for that reason. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms still look affect all TAF sites tomorrow, with gusty outflow winds up to 30-35 kts. CAMs do indicate the potential for some showers to linger in the evening, so have introduced a PROB30 until 03Z. Behind convection, expect drainage flow to return. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MAI AVIATION...MAI  004 FXUS65 KTWC 240908 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 208 AM MST Mon Aug 24 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A low grade monsoon pattern for most of this week with only limited (15 percent or less) storm chances each day for most locales. Storm chances return to more typical levels by this weekend. High temperatures will remain well above normal through the week with an Extreme Heat Warning in effect for much of southeast Arizona. && .DISCUSSION...The robust thunderstorm activity that occurred last night, especially to the west to northwest of Tucson is winding down for our area this morning with an MCV now near Phoenix. However, separate from that we have been seeing some renewed isolated to scattered shower and embedded thunderstorm development in the past hour or so over central Pima County. This is out ahead of a weak disturbance aloft across northern Sonora per latest WV imagery. Expect this activity to continue into the early morning hours, though not be particularly impactful. The bigger picture mid/upper level pattern this morning continues to be defined by a broad east-west oriented high pressure aloft from New Mexico into west Texas with southeasterly flow continuing for our area. Renewed shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon into this evening should remain limited as the region will be on the subsident side of the aforementioned disturbance, though adequate moisture and instability continues mainly from the Tucson area westward to justify a slight chance (~10%) of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures today will be a couple of degrees cooler compared to yesterday but still running about 3 to 7 degrees above normal. An extended stretch of late season heat will be the main weather story for the work week as the high pressure aloft strengthens and nudges west into Arizona by Wednesday and remains quasi-stationary through Friday. The drier air and subsidence aloft with the high will result in diminished monsoonal thunderstorm activity the rest of the work week. While this won't completely shut down thunderstorms, it will solidly be low grade for much of the week, picking up somewhat as early as Friday but more so this weekend as the high starts to shift a bit more eastward into a more favorable position. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through Saturday with high temperatures expected to peak midweek 6 to 10 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION...valid through 25/12Z. Generally SCT clouds 9-13k ft AGL through the forecast period with locally BKN clouds thru 25/03Z. Expect isolated -SHRA/-TSRA west of KTUS thru 24/15Z, then again between 24/21Z and 25/03Z mainly from KTUS-KOLS westward. Coverage will be too limited for inclusion in TAFs. Gusts in excess of 30 kts are expected with thunderstorms. Otherwise surface winds light and terrain driven. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Isolated thunderstorms (15 percent or less chance) for most locales through Thursday, though slightly higher chances along the immediate Int'l border and White Mountain region. Thereafter, storm chances increase this weekend to more typical levels around 20 to 50 percent. Temperatures will remain well above normal through most of the week with a cooling trend by the end of the forecast period Sunday. Drier conditions return Tuesday with minimum relative humidity values mainly 10-18 percent in the valleys and 20-30 percent in the mountains. Minimum RH values increase to 20- 30 percent this weekend in valleys and 30-45 percent in the mountains. Winds will generally remain less than 15 mph and terrain driven through the week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ501-502- 504>506-509. Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ503-507-508. && $$ Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson  547 FXUS63 KLSX 240912 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 412 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably warm temperatures in the 80s will continue this week. There is a chance for thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday ahead of a weak cold front. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 A high amplitude upper pattern remains in place over the CONUS with a ridge centered over the Southwest U.S. extending north through the Plains, and a trough over the Great Lakes Lakes extending through the Southeast. The trough drifts east a bit today, which also causes the surface high currently over the Midwest to drift east into the Great Lakes Region and Ohio Valley. This will result in little change to the sensible weather at the surface, other than the winds turning to a more east or southeast direction. There are some isolated showers over western Missouri that are likely being forced by low level moisture convergence on the eastern periphery of a low level jet originating over the southeast Plains, however it's unlikely this precip will get too far east this morning before the low level jet weakens. Highs today should be very similar to yesterday's in the low to mid 80s under a partly to mostly sunny sky. Temperatures tonight look to be a bit warmer than this morning due to the continuing east-southeast flow with lows bottoming out in the low to mid 60s in most locations. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 The latest guidance continues to show a highly amplified long wave pattern over the CONUS at least through Friday. The upper trough continues drifting east through midweek which allows temperatures to continue to warm back into the mid and upper 80s by Wednesday. A short wave moves through the Midwest into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by late Wednesday afternoon/evening. This reorients the long wave trough back to the west and pushes a cold front south through the Mississippi Valley. Models print out light QPF ahead of the front Tuesday night and Wednesday, however the forcing isn't particularly strong Tuesday night, and elevated instability is limited. While CAPE increases to 2000+ J/Kg ahead of the front on Wednesday, there's enough CINH ahead of the front to make precip chances questionable. The going 20-30 PoPs look reasonable given the cap and relatively weak forcing, but if the cap breaks there could certainly be more widespread thunderstorms. Deep-layer wind shear will be around 30kts, so any storms that do form could be strong to severe. The airmass behind the cold front isn't that much cooler, so highs Thursday and Friday will likely only be 2-3 degrees cooler than Wedneday's. However it does look drier, so lows drop as much as 5-7 degrees back into the upper 50s and low 60s across much of the area by Friday morning. The long wave pattern begins to attenuate Friday, and by Saturday the flow aloft is quasi-zonal. Deterministic guidance is pretty insistent that temperatures will rise back into the upper 80s and low 90s Saturday and some locations will see mid 90s by Sunday afternoon. The LREF agrees, and even the lower quartile high temperatures are in the low to mid 90s Sunday afternoon. That being said, the IQR is fairly wide at 6-8 degrees. With that in mind confidence in the temperature forecast for Saturday and Sunday isn't particularly high. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 957 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Cool overnight temperatures and light winds will provide ideal conditions for fog, particularly in river vallies. This will lead to a high chance for impacts at KJEF, KSUS, and KCPS. The threat of fog outside of river vallies is greatest across portions of central Illinois, leading to a threat of reduced visibilities at KUIN. Any fog that develops will dissipate shortly after sunrise, with VFR flight conditions then expected through the day. While winds have been forecast to prevail out the east, they may remain variable through the day. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Carney LONG TERM...Carney AVIATION...Elmore  766 FXUS63 KFGF 240919 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 419 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon into the overnight. Hail to the size of golf balls and wind gusting to 70 mph will be the main threats. && .UPDATE... Issued at 419 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 A line of slow moving thunderstorms developed within the region of 925-850MB WAA and a 25-30kt low level jet where there was an axis of elevated mid level convergence. A weaker frontal zone/outflow is moving in from the west (near Minot) with the main upper wave still well over to the northwest along with it's associated front. There was training with high rain rates within this line that may have been enough to support flooding of low lying/poor drainage areas withing parts of northwest Benson County. This mornings activity is already showing signs of weakening as it moves off the axis of better instability to our west, and as the LLJ is continuing to weaken. This trend should continue, though some remnant showers/weak thunderstorms may continue to move east into the northern RRV during the morning hours. The main focus for severe chances today will continue to be the cold front expected to arrive this afternoon and push east through the evening/overnight hours as the main mid/upper waves passes to the north. Morning convective activity/cloud cover could initially play a complicating role in earlier initiation and if there isn't enough clearing activity may tend to be more elevated (lowering the ceiling on severe impacts). Considering the advertised effective shear with generally straight hodographs orientated W-E with the frontal zone. This would support the potential for splitting supercells at least early on during the evening (late afternoon/evening) before any activity clusters up and potentially turns into one or several MCS's. 0-3km shear does increase to 30kt behind the front later this evening as a NW orientated LLJ develops, but ahead of and along the front low level shear is weaker (25kt or less), so the wind threat may remain dependent on RFD surges or cold pool development. The more elevated the activity becomes though the less likely wind will be a factor, and the more hail would become the main threat. There may be just enough effective SRH near the frontal zone to support a low tornado risk early in the evening, with right split supercells (very subtle right curvature on some hodographs), and some AI systems are highlighting this risk. Just like with the wind threat today, any tornado risk will be highly dependent on the nature of the storms and if they remain surface based (hard to say at this point). UPDATE Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Northern end of some convection has been tracking through the Devils Lake basin for the last couple of hours, with the main impacts being some rain up to 4 tenths of an inch so far and some lightning. Heavier cells tracking southeastward through Wells and Foster counties, but on a weakening trend as they move into less unstable air. Most of the CAMs have the complex weakening as it moves towards the Red River later tonight, although a few models break out some stronger convection again on the northwest side. Given cell currently tracking into northwestern ND from MT, will keep a close eye on the activity. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...Synopsis... Northwest flow prevails this afternoon into the evening, gradually becoming zonal overnight. Showers and isolated thunderstorms could work into parts of eastern North Dakota overnight as warm air advection increases ahead of an approaching shortwave. Upper flow then becomes slightly southwest late overnight into Monday morning. This will be in response to the shortwave and weak upper low moving across southern Manitoba late Monday into Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected as the associated cold front sweeps across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, with a chance for isolated severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Warm air advection ahead of the front will allow afternoon temperatures to climb well into the 80s across most of the area. Slightly cooler temps return on Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain chances Late Tuesday through Thursday will be minimal, with PoPs increasing once more late Friday into the weekend. ...Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Late Monday... Severe thunderstorm coverage on Monday afternoon and evening will depend heavily on the timing of an approaching cold front. Warm air advection will be strong through much of the day across eastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota; however, with remnant shower activity on Monday morning potentially lingering, this could shorten the window of potential severe weather late Monday. Looking at CAMs, there are several potential scenarios, ranging from potential splitting supercells, to elevated clusters. Model soundings are consistent with nearly straight hodographs as the front approaches, which continue to support splitting supercells and hybrid clusters. As such, a high end scenario supports supercells developing west of the Red River during the late afternoon, with hazards including wind gusts to 75 mph and large hail to the size of golf balls. A more likely scenario would be that we have lingering convective inhibition later into the afternoon, thus delaying convection until later in the evening. This would still support wind gusts up to 70 mph, but would transition into mainly an elevated hail scenario that extends into the early overnight hours. With this later scenario, we could see isolated severe thunderstorms lingering into Tuesday morning across parts of northwest Minnesota. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The main challenge throughout the TAF period will be shower and thunderstorm activity. Showers and thunderstorms have moved into the Devils Lake Basin. This activity will continue pushing eastward overnight, impacting KDVL, KGFK and KTVF. Instability is greatest further west, therefore maintained a PROB30 for -TSRA at KDVL, while at the other two terminals maintained -SHRA. Clouds will thin out as showers/storms decrease in coverage on Monday morning. Southerly winds of 10 to 14 knots accompanied by a few gusts to 20 knots within the Red River Valley will prevail Monday afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development may occur late Monday afternoon and evening, persisting into the overnight. At this time, low predictability in where storms form precludes any mention of them within the last few hours of the TAF. Once timing and location information becomes more clear, future iterations of the TAF will likely need PROB30s or TEMPOs for at least a handful of terminals. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...JR/DJR DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...Rafferty  873 FXUS65 KLKN 240923 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 223 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Subtropical moisture will help to fuel afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the middle of next week * Some showers and thunderstorms could produce brief moderate to heavy rain with the main threat of debris flows on recently burned areas * Cooling trend continues today as mid-level moisture and increasing cloud cover continues its northward trajectory && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Monday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: One more afternoon and evening of unrestricted monsoonal flow will continue to bring shower and thunderstorm chances for the Silver State, but High pressure shifting west from the plains looks to first limit, then cutoff moisture flow. Monday afternoon and evening there will again be a 20% to 50% chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, but these chances drop to 10% to 20% Tuesday, then rise a bit to 10% to 30% Wednesday afternoon and evening. Storm chances look to drop below 10% Thursday into the weekend, the main reason will be the subtropical high pressure ridge now over the southern plains builds west into Arizona. Storm modes through Monday still favor more wet storm modes, but there will still be a chance for a few dry thunderstorms, both as storm motion increases due to increasing southwesterly flow and from mid level moisture decreasing. Tuesday and Wednesday chances for dry thunder will increase, but storm coverage will shift east as drier air returns from the west. Common hazards for storms will include gusty outflow winds up to 50 MPH, ground lightning strikes, and brief heavy rainfall. Thursday through Monday, models may have finally settled on a pattern change. Both the GFS and ECMWF still show that the upper ridge will try and work its way back west, shifting the upper flow back to a WSW direction as it does so. What is interesting is models are now showing that the ridge will stay farther south over the US/Mex border allowing for a longwave trough to set up offshore of the Pacific northwest. This will bring a more westerly mid and upper level flow, which would be dry, but it would also be cooler given the lower forecast heights. Still this is a just a recent agreement from the models, so overall confidence remains mixed for the extended until this consensus holds firm. Temperatures even with the pattern change look to hold in the low 80s to low 90s, with overnight lows ranging into the mid 50s to mid 60s. Winds will be breezy through the weekend and into the new week as winds shift more south to southwest in line with the upper level flow pattern at speeds of 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH possible. Winds look to shift back to the west to SW Thursday through the weekend. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence a daily 20% to 50% chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for Nevada through Monday. There is moderate confidence in a 10% to 30 % chance for a mix of isolated dry and wet thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. There is high confidence in dry conditions returning to the Great Basin Thursday trough Sunday of next week. There is low-moderate confidence in the upper pattern Thursday through Monday as models now seem to agree on keeping NV under WSW flow between as upper level ridge over Arizona, and a trough off the Pacific NW. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Monday evening. Winds will be out of the south to southwest at 5KT to 15KT with gusts to 25KT possible for all terminals. VCTS will be possible during afternoon and evening hours for KBAM, KEKO, KELY, and KENV as monsoonal flow keeps a 20% to 50% chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Although not likely, a stray VCTS will be possible for KTPH, and KWMC, chances will be near 10% Monday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... One last day of unrestricted monsoonal moisture will keep a 20% to 50% chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for central and northern Nevada Monday afternoon and evening. Hazards from storms will include gusty outflow winds up to 50 MPH, Ground lightning strikes, and brief heavy rainfall. High Pressure ridge to the east will begin to impinge on moisture flow by Tuesday and Wednesday dropping storm coverage to isolated and storm chances to 10% to 30% for a mix of wet or dry thunderstorms. High Pressure looks to cut off monsoon flow fully by Thursday bringing drier conditions that will last through Monday of next week. Winds will be out of the south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 MPH possible, after Thursday winds shift to west to southwest with similar speeds through the weekend. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...98 AVIATION...98 FIRE WEATHER...98  981 FXUS66 KLOX 240928 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 228 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .SYNOPSIS...24/158 AM. Very hot conditions will dominate the week, with a high risk for heat illness. Patchy night through morning low clouds and locally dense fog will be confined to coastal areas, mainly north of Point Conception. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...24/158 AM. The story this entire week will be the heat. A 597 dam upper high will sit, quasi-stationary, over NM through the period. Hgts over Srn CA will be around 593 dam all three days. At the sfc the E/W gradient will oscillate between near very weak onshore flow in the morning to mdt onshore flow in the afternoon. In the N/S direction there will be weak onshore flow each afternoon, but in the mornings there will be increasing offshore flow. The strong high pressure aloft, weak offshore flow from the north and lack of an eddy will limit the amount of low clouds south of Pt Conception each morning. The Central Coast will have more low clouds but since the marine layer will be squashed to under 800 ft there will be areas of dense fog each morning. There will not be too much in the way of winds given the lack of strong sfc gradients. The only exception will be the SBA south coast where there will be Sundowners each night. There is a chc that the gusts will reach advisory levels Tuesday night. But still, everything is about the heat. Today may be a few degrees cooler than it was ydy as the upper high wobbles slightly to the east. Max temps will still end up 6 to 12 degrees above normal. Vly temps will rise to 96 to 106 degrees. Heat advisories are in effect for the vlys, lower mtn elevations and far interior. The offshore flow from the north increases on Tuesday as does the offshore flow across the Central Coast. This will bring 1 to 3 degrees of warming to most areas, except for the Central Coast which will see a 8 to 12 degrees of warming. Vly Temps will end up between 100 and 110 degrees. Inland coastal areas such as DTLA, LGB and SLO will have max temps in the 90s. Heat advisories may be needed for these inland coastal areas. Another increase in the offshore flow from the north and across the Central Coast will add another 1 to 3 degrees of warming to most of the area. Triple digit heat will cover almost the entire forecast areas save for the beaches which will still have highs in the 80s and the Central Coast which will see max temps in the upper 80s and 90s. Of note: The EC is still forecasting offshore flow from both the east and north and if this were to happen max temps would be even higher in the vlys and significantly higher across the csts. This scenario seems less likely now, however, as the NAM does show continued onshore flow to the east. It is almost a certainty that all of the heat watches will be converted to warnings and much of the rest of the area will be covered with heat advisories. One last heat reflated issue, due to the very warm atmosphere and powerful inversion under the upper high, overnight low temps will also be 6 to 12 degrees over normals with some vly areas experiencing 80s for the bulk of the night. These low temps will add to the heat risk as people who lack air conditioning will not be able to cool off overnight. .LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...24/158 AM. Not much change in the upper levels on Thursday and Friday. The sfc gradient problem in the E/W direction remains with the EC remaining significantly offshore while the GFS keeps it onshore. Given how the NAM is tracking the gradients it seems the best bet is for onshore gradients, but weaker than the GFS is forecasting. All mdls show offshore flow from the north, but again the EC is much stronger. Thursdays temps will be very similar to Thursday's with most max temps 10 to 15 degrees above normal. High confidence that all of the heat warnings and advisories will continue. The current forecast for Friday shows some cooling. This is a low confidence forecast and depends on the gradient forecast. There is a very good chc that temps will be very similar to Thursday's values. The overnight lows will continue 8 to 12 degrees above normal and this will greatly exacerbate the heat risk as there will be no time for people's body to release the heat stress. Very hot sundowners across southern SBA county remain a concern as well. A decent N to S gradient will set up over the county each evening and gusty north canyon winds will develop. These hot winds could drive max temps into the 100-105 degree range and could also keep temperatures in the 80s until almost dawn. Better confidence in a noticeable cooling trend for the weekend. Both the EC and GFS agree that troffing will move into the west coast and force the upper high to the east. Hgts will fall to 590 dam Sat and then to 588 dam on Sun. More importantly both mdls show a return to onshore flow from both the South and West. Look for 2 to 4 degrees of cooling on Saturday and an additional 3 to 6 degrees on Sunday. Even with the cooling, Sunday's max temps will end up 2 to 4 degrees above normal south of Pt Conception. The Central Coast will fall a few degrees blo normal. && .AVIATION...24/0917Z. At 0822Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 500 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 2500 feet with a temperature of 30 C. High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KWJF and KPMD. For KSBP and KSMX, timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecast. For KLGB, there is a 10-15% chance of LIFR/IFR conditions 12Z-16Z. KLAX...Low confidence in TAF with a near 50 percent chc of no low clouds. No significant easterly wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF. && .MARINE...24/158 AM. For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are expected to continue although the winds will drop briefly across PZZ670 tonight and Monday. Short period SCA level seas (5 to 7 feet at 6-8 seconds) will continue along with the gusty winds. Wednesday into Thursday, larger seas approaching 7-9 feet are likely. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Monday night, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Tuesday through Friday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds each afternoon and evening. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Friday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds Monday through Friday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory in effect until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through Friday evening for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 4 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...RAT/Ciliberti SYNOPSIS...RK weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  081 FXUS63 KMPX 240930 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 430 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers & thunderstorms possible tonight into Tuesday morning, mainly across central & western Minnesota. - Another round of thunderstorms is possible Tuesday afternoon & evening, primarily east of Interstate 35. A few strong to severe storms are possible. - Quiet & seasonable weather returns Wednesday through Friday, with rain chances increasing again next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 408 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Quiet conditions across Minnesota & western Wisconsin overnight, despite two areas of thunderstorms ongoing across the eastern Dakotas. These clusters of thunderstorms will wane into the morning as they move eastwards, with perhaps some lingering light rain across southwest Minnesota through mid to late morning. Temperatures will again be around 80 degrees this afternoon, except across southern Minnesota where cloud cover will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler. Dew points increase through the day, especially across western Minnesota, leading more muggy conditions compared to over the weekend. A shortwave passes over the region tonight into Tuesday with a cold front passing through the region through the day on Tuesday. Overnight, a cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop tonight across eastern North Dakota. These storms could initially contain large hail & damaging winds, but are expected to weaken as they move eastwards into Minnesota after midnight. High resolution models are still varied on just how long these thunderstorms may hold together overnight into Tuesday morning, with the best chances for any rain expected across west-central Minnesota. Cloud cover from these lingering showers & thunderstorms could linger into the afternoon, potentially limiting the instability present for a potential second round of storms Tuesday late Tuesday afternoon & evening. Recent guidance has generally slowed down the passage of the cold front, which could give far-eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin more time to destabilize Tuesday afternoon. Dew points in the low to mid 60s combined with temperatures warming into the 80s could support around 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE, while 30-40 kts of deep shear will be more than enough for storms to organize. If we can realize this environment, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms would likely develop along the front during the afternoon & move eastwards through the evening, with damaging winds & large hail the main threats. So while confidence is increasing that at least a few strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon & evening, the magnitude & coverage of the threat still depends heavily on how quickly the atmosphere can recover during the day. The cold front exits into Wisconsin Tuesday night with cooler & drier northwest flow returning Wednesday. A few showers could linger Wednesday, mainly closer to the upper low across northern Minnesota & Wisconsin, but most of our area should trend dry through the day. High pressure then brings quiet weather Thursday into Friday with highs generally around 80 & comfortable humidity. The pattern looks to become more active again heading into next weekend as multiple shortwaves move through the northern Plains & Upper Midwest. This should bring increasing chances for showers & thunderstorms sometime Friday night through Sunday, but timing differences within the guidance lead to low confidence in the details this far out. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 102 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Increasing high clouds overnight with light southeasterly winds. Southerly winds approach 10 kts by the afternoon with a few gusts up to 20 kts, speeds diminish after sunset. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind SW 10-20 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts. THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...ETA  243 FXUS63 KIWX 240932 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 532 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a moderate swim risk for Lake MI beaches along the Berrien Co, MI shoreline today. Breaking waves of 2-3 feet and currents are expected. See the latest beach forecast for details. - Quiet weather through Tuesday night, with highs in the 70s, low 80s. Lows overnight in the 50s. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms (30-60 percent) return Wednesday and persist into Thursday. There is a marginal risk for strong-severe storms for portions of the area late Wednesday afternoon and evening, with damaging winds and large hail the main threat. Confidence is low at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 525 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Quiet weather-wise today into Tuesday night/Wed AM, with partly to mostly sunny skies, light winds, and highs in the 70s, low 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 50s. Northwest flow will keep waves on Lake MI in the 2-3 ft range for beaches along Berrien County, MI shoreline today. The higher waves will be further north as winds strengthen slightly there this afternoon. Conditions are still moderate swim risk this morning, coming down from high risk last night. Waves are around 2 feet with 5-6 second periods. The surface high pressure/upper level ridge in place today and Tue will slowly drift eastward and break down through Wednesday, with an upper level trough crossing the Great Lakes later in the day Wednesday into Thursday night. This will bring a surface cold front through our entire forecast area by Thursday morning. Have chances for showers/storms increasing Wed into Thu AM from west to east, peaking around 30-60 percent for now (best chances west late Wed Aft/Eve). SPC added about 2/3rds of our CWA into a marginal risk for strong to severe storms...generally northwest of a line from Marion, IN up into Defiance, OH and onto Wauseon, OH. Confidence is low at this time, especially further east mainly due to later arrival time-approx. 5-8 pm EDT Wed in the far west, then moving eastward as we lose daytime heating/instability. Mid level lapse rates aren't all that impressive either (bordering on 6 C/km). Still, some of the guidance has mixed layer cape in the 1500-2500 J/Kg range further west in that earlier period, with about 25-35kts of 0-6 km shear. Dewpoints also reach into the mid-upper 60s, low 70s. As they mentioned in their discussion, sufficient for multicells and even a few supercells. Main threats are isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts, but with low LCL's and a bit of low level wind shear (depends on the model), we could see tornado potential. At any rate, a lot could change in the next couple of days so will continue to monitor and refine the area of greatest risk. high temperatures will be in the upper 70s and low to mid 80s. Dry conditions return Friday and most of Saturday, then low end (20- 30 percent) rain and storm chances are possible Sat night into Monday. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 525 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Predominantly VFR conditions expected at the terminals through the period, with mainly scattered clouds around 4-6kft. Could see some west-northwest wind gusts up to around 20 knots this afternoon, otherwise winds will be light (and variable/near calm overnight/early this AM). With light winds/mostly clear skies overnight we could see some BR/FG development (mainly at KSBN this AM, KFWA tomorrow morning). Left out of the KSBN TAF for this morning as much of guidance has visibility drops around 6SM or greater. At KFWA, it's possible we see IFR/LIFR conditions closer to 8-12Z Tue AM. Have MVFR visibility for now (4SM BR) given favorable conditions. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MCD AVIATION...MCD  366 FXUS65 KFGZ 240935 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 235 AM MST Mon Aug 24 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Moderate monsoon activity will continue through today, mainly along the higher terrain during the afternoon and evening hours. As high pressure builds over Arizona, expect hot temperatures and a decrease in storm activity to develop as moisture diminishes across the region. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure remains centered across New Mexico early this morning. The high drifts to the west today through Tuesday before becoming centered over Arizona. As we move through the rest of the week, the high starts to sink further to the south and east. Today and Tuesday...A few showers and isolated storms continue early this morning, mainly across Yavapai County, in response to outflows from storms across the valley overnight. Precipitation with this activity is light and not expected to be very impactful, other than increasing cloud cover through daybreak. Going through the rest of today, we see monsoon moisture remaining in place with another fairly active afternoon/evening across the region. Best chances will be across the higher terrain and across western portions of the forecast area as moisture is advected up from the Gulf of California in the continued southerly flow. Storm motions remain on the slow side which will keep flash flooding as the main hazard for the day. As the high pushes back to the west we will lose some of that good moisture advection into the region and storm chances will start to decrease. Expect storms to develop mainly across the higher terrain for Tuesday. Wednesday through Friday...As the high becomes centered over Arizona, we see the moisture start to get cut off as subsidence wins out with drier conditions expected. Best chances for any storms will remain mainly across the higher terrain with the highest chances towards the White Mountains. The other factor of the strengthening high will be the increasing temperatures, which will be hot across the region. With highs reaching back into the 100s and heat risk increasing, we have issued an Extreme Heat Warning for the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon and Yavapai County, for areas below 4000 feet, in effect for Wednesday through Friday. Saturday and Sunday...Models show the high elongating and sliding to the east of the region by the weekend. This shift may help to usher moisture back into our area with better chances for showers and thunderstorms returning along with slightly cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION...Monday 24/06Z through Tuesday 25/06Z...Mainly VFR conditions. An outflow boundary moving north from central AZ could trigger a round of SHRA/TSRA late tonight into early Monday morning (through around 09Z) along/south of KPRC-KSEZ-KINW. Otherwise, another round of isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA is then forecast to develop Monday afternoon, with highest coverage west of a KPAN-KPGA line. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty/erratic wind to 40 kts possible in heavier SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise, look for south to southwest daytime winds at 5-15 kts, with variable or terrain wind-driven winds overnight. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 25/06Z through Thursday 27/06Z...Expect mainly VFR conditions. Coverage of afternoon SHRA/TSRA decreasing to isolated Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly over higher terrain. Outside of gusty/erratic outflow driven winds, look for daytime winds mainly southwest to west 5-15 kts. Light and variable winds at night. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today through Tuesday...Chance for showers and thunderstorms continue through today with the greatest coverage across the higher terrain and best timing from around midday into the evening hours. Drier conditions are possible Tuesday, with low- grade monsoonal conditions developing.Outside of gusty and erratic storm driven winds, expect southwest to west winds around 5-15 mph during the day, becoming variable at night. Wednesday through Friday...Hot temperatures return with drier conditions expected. Low-grade monsoonal conditions each day, mainly across the higher terrain and becoming largely limited to the White Mountains. Expect southwest winds around 5-15 mph each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM MST Friday for AZZ006-037. && $$ PUBLIC...Meola AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...Meola For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  502 FXUS65 KMSO 240938 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 338 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - High pressure rebuilding today with warming temperatures and light diurnal winds. - Thunderstorm chances expand northward Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure will rebuild across the Northern Rockies today bringing stable conditions and generally light winds. High temperatures will be on the uptrend, topping out about 10 degrees above seasonal norms by Tuesday and Wednesday. Monsoonal moisture will begin spreading northward for Tuesday, introducing shower and thunderstorm chances primarily up toward the I-90 corridor. By Wednesday, deeper monsoonal moisture will begin to encompass most of the region increasing the chances and coverage of showers and thunderstorms. A mix of rain-producing storms will intermingle with mostly dry thunderstorms elevating the risk for more lightning-caused fire starts. Ensemble guidance continues to show agreement on a Pacific Northwest trough returning into the forecast by the end of this coming week into next weekend. At this time, there aren't many details on exact impacts or timing, but we can expect moderating temperatures, and an increase in winds over a couple days which may lead to another window of elevated fire weather conditions later this week. && .AVIATION...High pressure is rebuilding over the region bringing widespread VFR weather conditions. Generally, light and diurnal/terrain driven winds can be expected at all terminals. Warming daytime temperatures over the next couple days will noticeably increase density altitudes once again. Regional and local wildfire smoke may cause localized areas of degraded slant -range visibility at times. Shower and thunderstorm chances begin to increase northward by Tuesday and Wednesday. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$  583 FXUS66 KSEW 240941 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 241 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level ridging building over the area today and Tuesday will bring warm and dry conditions to western Washington. An upper level low approaching the region midweek will bring the return on onshore flow, cooler temperatures, and chances of precipitation to the area. Upper level troughing will continue to influence the region heading into the weekend, keeping conditions cooler and cloudier across western Washington. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper level ridging will build over the Pacific Northwest today, while a thermal trough at the surface builds northward along the Washington coast. The ridge axis will shift inland over the Intermountain West by Tuesday, while the thermal trough at the surface also pushes inland. This pattern will bring a warming and drying trend to western Washington for the start of the week. Morning stratus will scatter quicker today and afternoon highs will climb into the mid 70s to mid 80s across the interior lowlands and into the mid 70s along the coast. A combination of northerly and offshore flow will promote continued drying in the low levels and may allow for some smoke from regional wildfires over British Columbia and eastern Washington to make its way back into the area. Tuesday is still on tap to be the warmest day of the week, with afternoon high temperatures expected to climb into the 80s across the majority of the interior and into the low 90s across the Cascade valleys. This will reintroduce Moderate HeatRisk to the valleys as well as the Everett-Seattle- Tacoma metro areas. A pattern change is expected around midweek as an upper level low approaches the Pacific Northwest. This will bring the return of onshore flow and cooler conditions to western Washington, as well as reintroduce a few chances of showers to the area. Overall QPF amounts look to remain light at this time, however cannot rule out a few chances (around 10%) for thunderstorm development along the coast as the low swings northeastward towards Vancouver Island and Haida Gwaii and brings southwesterly flow aloft to western Washington. Afternoon highs will generally be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday's and look to top out in the upper 70s to near 80 across the interior and in the mid 60s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Ensemble guidance remains in decent agreement with upper level troughing lingering over the region through the second half of the week. This will help maintain onshore flow across western Washington and chances of light showers at times. Thunderstorms will remain possible on Thursday as the aforementioned upper level low swings through the region, but will primarily be confined to the North Cascades. Temperatures will generally trend to near to slightly below normal, with afternoon highs topping out in the low to mid 70s across the interior and in the low to mid 60s along the coast. Morning lows will generally be in the 50s, but may fall into the 40s by later in the weekend. 14 && .AVIATION... An upper level ridge will continue to build into the area through today, with southwest flow aloft across western Washington. Marine stratus along the coast this morning have already brought coastal terminals down to LIFR (KHQM and KCLM). Stratus pushing through the Strait will likely affect interior terminals such KPAE, with IFR/LIFR ceilings this morning. Additionally, we will likely see localized fog at terminals near valleys that could bring deteriorated conditions early this morning. Stratus and fog will burn off later this morning into the afternoon with VFR returning by 18z/20z. Could see some haze at times throughout the afternoon as well. N/NE winds 5 to knots will increase slightly this afternoon, generally around 8 to 12 knots. KSEA...VFR conditions early this morning at the terminal with NE winds 8 to 12 knots. LIFR stratus continues to make its way inland through the Strait - with latest guidance still continuing to suggest a 10% chance of LIFR conditions at the terminal, between 12z-17z. The confidence of stratus reaching the terminal this morning is low, but the 10% probability remains. Otherwise, VFR will continue at the terminal this afternoon. North to northeast winds through the afternoon, generally around 8 to 12 knots. Mazurkiewicz && .MARINE... Surface high pressure remains over the coastal waters today and will continue through Tuesday. Could see patchy fog over the waters this morning as marine stratus continues to push onshore, which may limit visibilities at times. Northerly winds will increase over the coastal waters later this afternoon and evening, with latest probabilities suggesting small craft advisory gusts over the majority of the waters. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued, particularly for gusts up to 25 kts. Onshore flow looks to increase over the area Tuesday into Wednesday, with a westerly push down the Strait of Juan de Fuca that likely will warrant headlines. Coastal seas 4 to 6 feet into Tuesday, with some areas, especially in the outer coastal waters, seeing seas up to 7 feet. Additionally, with period of around 6 seconds, could see choppy seas Monday afternoon and evening. Seas will subside to 3 to 5 feet through much of the week. Mazurkiewicz && .FIRE WEATHER... Warmer and drier conditions are expected across western Washington today and Tuesday as an upper level ridge builds into the region. A thermal trough will also build northward along the coast today, allowing for flow to turn offshore and promoting additional drying in the low levels. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely across the Cascades on Tuesday (the warmest day of the week), with isolated spots expected to approach critical minimum RH thresholds by dipping into the low to mid 20s. A pattern change midweek will bring the return of onshore flow, cooler temperatures, and chances of light precipitation to the area. A 10-20% chance of isolated thunderstorms will be possible, primarily along the coast and North Cascades, Wednesday and Thursday as the upper trough swings northeastward across the region. Upper level troughing then looks to remain over the area into the weekend and should continue to promote onshore flow, excellent overnight humidity recoveries, and cooler temperatures across western Washington, which in turn will help mitigate fire weather conditions through the weekend. 14 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to midnight PDT tonight for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$  619 FXUS61 KAKQ 240941 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 541 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable humidity through Wednesday. Mainly dry outside of isolated showers/storms in NE NC. 2) Unsettled conditions return mid to late week with daily chances for showers/storms. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 AM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable humidity through Wednesday. Mainly dry outside of isolated showers/storms in NE NC. Mostly clear early this morning with a bit of chill in the air, especially away from the coast. Already seeing a few obs in the upper 50s in a few of our rural Piedmont sites with 60s elsewhere (70s near the coast). While another warm day is expected today (highs mid-upper 80s), dew points in the 50s (60s near the coast) should make it feel quite comfortable. High pressure remains in place Tuesday and then gradually shifts offshore Wednesday, which will then allow for a gradual return to the humidity. However, Tuesday should be another with dew points in the 50s and it will again feel quite nice out despite the warm temps. Expecting mainly dry wx for most of our CWA through Wednesday. CAMs continue to indicate some isolated showers could develop near the Albemarle Sound (and points S) this afternoon, but the coverage doesn't justify more than a 20-30% PoP. Instability also looks on the meager side so don't expect more than an isolated rumble of thunder with any activity. Could be a similar scenario Tuesday and Wednesday as a weak sfc trough remains in place along the NC/SC coast. KEY MESSAGE 2... Unsettled conditions return mid to late week with daily chances for showers/storms. Moisture returns to the Mid-Atlantic later Wednesday through the end of the week with the offshore high and SW flow aloft. This favors a return to daily chances for showers and storms. As of now, Thursday and Friday look like the days with the highest coverage of storms as a frontal system approaches the area. Some stronger storms could also be possible, depending on the strength of the flow aloft. Zonal flow sets up by next weekend with continuing, but probably lower, shower/storm chances. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 540 AM EDT Monday... VFR conditions prevail through the 12z TAF period. Light and variable winds this morning become W-SW 5-10 kt this afternoon, although a sea breeze will likely turn winds E after ~21z for coastal terminals. Mid-level CU is also favored to develop by the late morning and afternoon. Finally, an isolated shower or storm is possible around of S of ECG this afternoon (20-30% chc); will hold off on any TAF mention due to low coverage and confidence. FEW- SCT mid/high clouds linger into tonight with winds turning to the N after ~06z. Outlook: Dry and prevailing VFR conditions expected through the mid week period. Shower/storm chances return late in the week with localized sub-VFR possible. && .MARINE... As of 300 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Benign marine conditions are expected through much of the week. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through much of the week. A subtle trough is pushing across the coast early this morning. The wind is generally SW 5-10kt and locally 10-15kt. Seas are 2-3ft with waves in the Ches. Bay ~1ft. The wind should become WNW 5-10kt in the wake of the trough this morning, before becoming S/SSW 5-10kt this aftn and evening. A weak cold front crosses the coast early Tuesday resulting in a wind shift to N 10-15kt for a 3-6hr period early/mid Tuesday morning, before becoming E/NE Tuesday aftn. High pressure settles off the Southeast coast mid to late week. Light S/SE flow of 5-10kt is expected Wednesday, before becoming SSE 10- 15kt (~15kt for the Ches. Bay) late Wednesday aftn through the early overnight hours Wednesday night. A similar pattern is expected Thursday, with lighter S/SE flow during day becoming SSE and increasing later in the aftn and evening. The wind direction trends to S/SW by Friday with wind speeds less than 15kt. A weak cold front may cross the coast by early Saturday. Seas are expected to be 2ft to occasionally 3ft through the week, with 1ft to occasionally 2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The only exceptions in the Ches. Bay are potential 2-3ft waves behind the cold front early Tuesday, and with the increased SSE flow Wednesday evening. A 10-12 sec. dominant wave period is expected today through Tuesday. However, the rip risk should remain low as long as nearshore waves remain 2ft or less. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AC/SW AVIATION...SW MARINE...AJZ  625 FXUS65 KREV 240941 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 241 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening in Northeastern California and Western Nevada. * Smoke from the Hawk Fire will continue to impact air quality and visibility, especially near the Reno/Sparks metro area today. * Increased winds will bring elevated to critical fire weather to the region along with potential recreational impacts by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... For today, forecast guidance shows the CWA with a generally southwesterly flow aloft being underneath the western portion of an upper air ridge residing over the southwestern CONUS. Models also show a shortwave disturbance traveling through the flow over N CA and then into OR during the afternoon and evening hours. This feature looks to be the driver for precipitation chances today as there is a 15-25% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms for NE CA and W NV today with the higher end chances expected in areas closer to the OR border. The window for precipitation looks to be between 1-8 PM today according to the latest hi-res guidance though some lingering showers may be possible in eastern portions of Pershing and Churchill Counties before midnight. When looking at the latest convective parameters from CAMs, MUCAPE values appear to go up to around 500 J/kg with DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg. This will allow storms today to be capable of producing wind gusts up to around 45-55 mph once again. Storms also look to have quicker storm motions today, so dry lightning could be possible especially in areas closer to the OR border. Not anticipating a flooding threat with storms today as there is a dry surface layer seen in the model soundings, but brief bouts of heavier rainfall can be possible with PW values up to around 0.7 inches. As for the Tahoe region and the Sierra, dry conditions are to be expected today. The latest run of the HRRR near-surface smoke product shows that smoke from the Hawk Fire will continue to cause impacts today in W NV particularly within the Reno-Sparks metro area. Lighter winds this morning will allow smoke to settle which can reduce visibility and degrade air quality. Area winds expect pick up in the afternoon with gusts up to around 25-30 mph when smoke concentration increases allowing smoke to have better dispersion. But when winds decrease overnight, smoke will settle again. Those sensitive to poor air quality will want to continue to monitor airnow.gov today for the latest air quality information. Daytime high temperatures through Thursday are forecast to be in the lower to middle 90s for NE CA and W NV valleys with Sierra communities in the middle 70s to lower 80s range. By Friday and going into the weekend, the forecast shows slightly milder temperatures with the valleys in the upper 80s to lower 90s and the higher Sierra elevations in the 70s. The main concern going through the rest of the week is increased winds Tuesday through possibly Saturday as a PacNW upper low moves into SW Canada. The latest NBM run continues to show around a 50-80% probability for maximum wind gusts over 30 mph on these days within the region. These winds will cause elevated to critical fire weather (see Fire Weather Section for more information) and recreational concerns on area lakes within the region, especially for the second half of the week. Please continue to watch for forecast updates especially if fire or wind products need to be issued. While the remainder of the week looks to be mostly dry, some models are hinting at around 10-20% chances for precipitation in the Sierra and W NV on Friday. -078 && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail for the area TAF sites today and tonight with winds gusting up to 20-25 kts between 24/19Z-25/03Z. Smoke from the Hawk Fire may continue to reduce visibilities at KRTS and in the vicinity of KRNO through the day, but the latest forecast is not calling for sub-VFR conditions at area terminals. Will continue to monitor this situation and amend TAFs if needed. The increased winds will aid in smoke dispersion this afternoon, but smoke expects to settle in portions of W NV going through the night when winds decrease. As for precipitation chances today, there looks to be around a 15- 25% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms in NE CA and W NV beginning around 24/21Z with portions closer to the the OR border seeing the higher end chances. By 25/03-04Z, precipitation chances look to exit out of the region to the east. Otherwise, conditions look to be mostly dry through the middle of the week with afternoon wind gusts increasing to around 30 kts. -078 && .FIRE WEATHER... Breezy W/SW winds with gusts up to around 25 mph and RH reductions of 20-25% will support elevated fire weather conditions again this afternoon across the Sierra Front and NE CA, including the Hawk Fire. Slightly better overnight RH recoveries are forecast around the 40-50% range near the Hawk Fire. Another concern today is that there is potential for dry thunderstorms this afternoon with the latest SPC fire weather outlook highlighting areas along the OR border where there is a 15- 25% for showers and thunderstorms generally between 1-8 PM today. The latest HRRR shows CAPE values up to 500 J/kg signaling an unstable environment that can support vertical plume growth with the moist mid-level seen in forecast soundings. Going through the rest of the week, increased winds with gusts upwards of 35 mph (40 mph in wind prone areas) are expected Tuesday through possibly Saturday, mainly for the Sierra Front and NE CA. The SPC's Fire Weather Outlook for these days also highlights these areas with 40% chance of critical fire weather conditions due to increased winds and low RH. Currently, days with the most widespread critical fire weather conditions in these areas looks to be Wednesday through Friday. Please continue to watch for further updates in case fire products need to be issued. -078/Justin && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$  936 FXUS62 KMHX 240947 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 547 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Chance of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening. Aviation disco updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Severe threat in place this afternoon and tonight. Best chances for coastal areas, though Coastal Plain zones may see some stronger storms as well. Greatest threats will be strong winds gusts, periods of heavy downpours that may cause localized flash flooding. Some of the strongest storms may produce hail. 2) Reduced thunderstorm risk is expected Tuesday and Wednesday in the wake of the departing low, with more unsettled weather returning by late week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A weak SFC low slowly lifting NE along the front from Sern NC will nudge the boundary from the coast toward the I95 corridor. Overall pre- storm environment will be similar to yesterday: ample instability, support aloft with multiple shortwaves rounding the base of the stout trough aloft over NECONUS, and additional bump in effective shear in the lower levels thanks to the development of the low to SW. This may provide a marginally better environment for supercell development. If the front does get pulled west as some HiRes solutions exist, the convective risk will also follow suit. The greatest risk of strong to severe thunderstorms remains E of HWY 17 with damaging winds remaining the primary threat, with hail possible in supercells. Because of this, SPC has the bulk of the area in some sort of Severe Thunderstorm Risk, coastal zones are under a Slight Risk (lvl 2/5) with Coastal Plain counties under a Marginal Risk (lvl 1/5). Some thunderstorms will enter coastal plain counties early this morning and waning through the morning hours. This afternoon, chances increased quickly over the coast and slowly progressing inland through the afternoon into the evening. The bulk of convection is expected to dissipate after sunset, especially after midnight when the last shortwave pushes off the coast and SFC low departing to the NE, leading to a less conducive flow pattern through the column. KEY MESSAGE 2...Guidance slowly coming into better agreement with a drier period for TUE and WED, with the low expected to be somewhere offshore near the NC/VA border. However, iso storms will still be possible over Crystal Coast seabreeze locales. WED, SFC flow becomes more onshore kicking off a period of increasing moisture and instability across the Southeast U.S. coastline with the potential for another round of unsettled weather for late-week. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... # --- AMD NOT SKED has been appended to EWN TAFs as the site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT). --- # VFR flight cats at issuance of TAFs, but confidence of seeing subVFR in the early morning hours has increased from previous TAF cycles. Light winds and clear skies will be present overnight save for debris clouds along the immediate coast. Guidance shows best chances for subVFR with some stratus and fog potential spreading over the area from the SW. Have included prevailing MVFR with TEMPO IFR for OAJ. Lower confidence for EWN so only have a TEMPO MVFR group here. Continue mention of prob30 groups for TSRA for all TAF sites. Inland sites may see some early morning showers/storms moving W to E. Afternoon convection is expected to develop around the coastal sites and then pushing inland into the evening. Outlook: A front will remain over the area through at least Tuesday morning, when a low traveling along the boundary will finally be N of theFA, dragging the front offshore. This would up the TSRA risk some, especially from KOAJ to KEWN. A risk of sub- VFR conditions would accompany any TSRA risk as well. && .MARINE... A cold front remains stalled over ENC today, but will get shunted toward the Coastal Plain this afternoon as a weak area of low pressure travels along it. Periods of thunderstorms expected to persist overnight and early morning. Varying wind directions are expected as the pair of lows move through, but neither low looks all that strong. For the coastal waters, seas of 2-3 ft are expected through today. Outlook: Winds will become Nerly for a brief time on Tuesday before southerly flow returns by the middle of the week, and lasting into the end of the week. Seas should generally hold around 2-3ft through Thursday, then build to 3-5ft late in the week. The risk of thunderstorms may decrease some Tuesday and Wednesday before increasing again later in the week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MS/CEB AVIATION...CEB MARINE...MS/CEB  041 FXUS61 KCAR 240951 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 551 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - 5:51AM UPDATE...Fog is mixing and lifting out in many locations to just low ceilings. Have opted to cancel the Dense Fog Advisory except in Central & Coastal Washington county. It will remain there till 9AM EDT. Any remaining fog is mainly patchy in nature and therefore the advisory was cancelled in those spots. Will handle that concern with an SPS. - 3:39AM UPDATE...Have extended the Dense Fog Advisory through to 9AM. Dense Fog Advisory now in effect for Northwest and Northeast Aroostook County, All of Washington County and Coastal Hancock County. Webcams, ASOS/AWOS are showing rapidly increasing coverage of fog with visibilities dropping to 1/4mi or lower in spots. Expecting this to last till an hour or so after sunrise. No other changes at this time. - Increased precip/thunder chances for North Woods Monday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Areas of dense fog into the morning, and possibly again Monday night. Fog will impact travel conditions. 2) Chance of showers through Monday afternoon, with possibly some thunderstorms in Northern Maine Monday afternoon. 3) Chance of showers and thunderstorms north of Bangor Tuesday and mainly across northern Aroostook Wednesday. 4) Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening, some of which may be on the locally strong side with gusty winds and small hail. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Areas of dense fog into the morning, and possibly again Monday night. Fog will impact travel conditions. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Fog is the main concern. Areas of fog and low clouds are moving through the area, especially along the coast. The best chance of the dense fog is near the Downeast coast, but can't rule out significant fog further inland too. The fog should generally dissipate during the day Monday, but fog appears likely again Monday night. There may be a slightly later onset to the fog in the evening Monday, but still think the fog could be locally dense by later Monday night. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 9 AM Monday for Southern and Central Washington as well as coastal Hancock counties. KEY MESSAGE 2...Chance of showers through Monday afternoon, with possibly some thunderstorms in Northern Maine Monday afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Areas of drizzle moving from south to north along with the fog and low clouds overnight. Some drying expected into Monday morning, but with a bit of clearing, expect enough instability for showers and storms to fire off by about midday in north and west areas. Scattered showers/storms are expected, with the best chance being inland away from the more stable marine layer. That said, even in the wetter north, only going with a 40-60 percent chance of showers/storms, best chance in the western North Woods along the Quebec border. Monday will not be a rainout by any means. Cannot rule out a couple of the storms being on the stronger side with gusty winds, and there is some uncertainty how many storms can fire in the first place. Bangor and Downeast should remain dry, save for a shower or two. KEY MESSAGE 3...Chance of showers and thunderstorms north of Bangor Tuesday and mainly across northern Aroostook Wednesday. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... The axis of an upper level closed low that is gradually weakening as it passes to the north, then northeast Tuesday- Wednesday, should bring with it sufficient instability in the low-mid levels with its associated cold-pool aloft, that it should produce scattered showers in areas north of Bangor on Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon, low to mid level lapse rates should be around 8C/km, with a few hundred J/kg of CAPE and around 35-45 kt of bulk shear. This should produce some strong storms across the region north of Bangor. Wet bulb zero heights are around 7500-8500 ft away from the coast so the greatest risk would be small hail. On Wednesday, as the upper low weakens and retreats to the northeast, the threat will be limited to the North, with low level lapse rates around 7.5-8 C/km, around 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE and around 20-30 kt of shear. Once again strong storms are possible with mainly isolated storms across northern Aroostook. The wetbulb zero height is a little higher at 8500-9000 J/kg, but still low enough to support hail. With the stronger CAPE, the main threat is both strong winds and small hail in the strongest convection across the North on Wednesday. KEY MESSAGE 4...Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening, some of which may be on the locally strong side with gusty winds and small hail. KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION... A cold front crosses the area Friday afternoon and evening on the leading edge of a full latitude trough pushing into the region, with the added support of a northern stream shortwave pushing through the trough around that time. With the potential for 500-1500 J/kg of CAPE and 25-35KT of bulk shear, there is a risk of some locally strong thunderstorms ahead of the front, with the main threat strong gusty winds. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 12z This Morning...Mainly IFR/LIFR conditions with brief periods of VLIFR. BR/FG and low cigs. Winds generally S and less than 5kt. VCSH possible. Today...IFR/LIFR becoming MVFR mid morning then VFR by midday. Might take longer to VFR at BHB. VCSH/-SHRA mainly for afternoon at northern terms. Low confidence -SHRA at BGR. PROB30 for northern terms (FVE,CAR,PQI and HUL) for -TSRA this afternoon. S winds 5-10kt with gusts up to 15kt. Tonight...VFR becoming MVFR/IFR cigs with BR/FG developing and possible LIFR/VLIFR vsby. Winds light and variable. Tuesday...Chance of IFR/LIFR early Tuesday AM at all terms in low cigs and/or FG. VFR mid morning into the afternoon. MVFR or lower possible in any stronger convection north of KBGR in the afternoon. SW winds 5-10kt, gusty winds in any storms possible. Tuesday night...VFR. Light and variable winds. Wednesday...VFR. Possible MVFR vsby due to -SHRA in the afternoon at KFVE/KCAR/KPQI. Wednesday night...VFR. Light and variable winds. Thursday...VFR. S winds 5-15kt with gusts up to 25kt. LLWS possible late afternoon. Thursday Night...VFR becoming MVFR/IFR with -SHRA developing. S winds 5-15kt. LLWS possible. Friday: MVFR/IFR in the early morning, then VFR mid morning, then MVFR or lower possible in any showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon. LLWS possible. S winds 5-15kt with higher gusts possible. && .MARINE... Fog over the waters through Monday night. S/SE winds 15 kts or less and seas 2-4 ft are forecast on all waters out to 60NM through Friday. There is a chance for dense fog on the waters Tuesday morning, reducing visibility to less than 1 nm. There is the chance for some thunderstorms over the waters late on Friday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MEZ017-030. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JS/JMM AVIATION...JS/JMM  098 FXUS63 KDTX 240953 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 553 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slightly cooler than average conditions today with rain chances persisting in the Thumb this morning. - Warming trend for the middle of the week with the next chance of rain coming in the late Wednesday and Thursday period. - Warmer and noticeably more humid conditions for the end of the week. && .AVIATION... Intense low pressure for this time of year is nearly stationary on the Ontario/Quebec border today. It continues to drive gusty NW wind which reinforces the cool air mass across Lower Mi while rain showers graze the area east of the terminal corridor. There is also a renewed daytime cloud component that increases coverage by late morning through the afternoon. The system drifts slightly farther east during this time which increases stability enough to cap off showers or thunderstorms through afternoon peak heating. This means dry weather and VFR ceiling into the evening followed by a gradual clearing and decreasing wind trend late tonight and Tuesday morning. D21/DTW Convection... No thunderstorms forecast today or tonight. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Moderate for ceiling 5000 feet or less today and this evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 DISCUSSION... Deep upper level trough will maintain its influence over Southeast Michigan throughout the day. Combination of warm lake water temperatures with tight cyclonic flow will continue to bring lake effect or bay effect rain chances to the Thumb this morning. The outstanding question is when rain will eventually pull away from Huron County today. Forecast soundings support a fair amount of warming in the 3.0 to 6.0 kft agl layer after 15z as lower heights push eastward. The net result is that higher midlevel stability working into the top of the mixed layer should cause lake/bay effect to become more sparse by the afternoon today. Highs today are expected to be in the middle to upper 70s which is 2 to 4 degrees below normal. Surface high pressure will build across the region tonight and Tuesday. Ideal lat e summer for Tuesday with daytime highs near 80 degrees and dewpoints in the 50s. Warm front will lift across Lower Michigan Tuesday night and early Wednesday as broad troughing settles into the upper Midwest. Models have been very consistent in showing nothing more than a very weak upper level jet streak. Big picture perspective suggests that precipitation chances will rely heavily on when direct differential cyclonic vorticity arrives. This suggests sometime late in the Wednesday period particularly for areas south of I 69. This looks good as residual stability and dry air from strong subsidence the day before will be place Wednesday afternoon. The current forecast calls for dry or a slight chance in Detroit prior to 00z Thursday. Models then suggest a good amount of wave dampening which results in nothing more than a spoke of absolute vorticity early Thursday, unorganized embedded wave energy late Thursday and early Friday. Good confidence slightly more humid weather Thursday with dewpoints then dropping behind a cold front Friday. Lower confidence exists regarding the forecast next weekend. There is some global deterministic differences on when the next Pacific jet packet will push into the Great Lakes region. GFS suggests as early as Saturday while the ECMWF waits until Sunday. Temperatures look to be in the 80s next weekend. MARINE... Post-frontal breezy northwest flow will persist as cooler air is ushered into the Great Lakes. Maintenance of wind gusts on the order of 20 to 30 knots is expected, along with some isolated gust potential to 35 knots across central Lake Huron. This higher end gust potential remains most favorable for the morning and early afternoon hours. Small Craft Advisories across the Saginaw Bay and into Port Huron have been extended through this evening. Lingering rain showers and a very low chance for a waterspout also continues across Lake Huron, tapering off by the afternoon. High pressure will then begin building into the Great Lakes late this evening and will center over the region by tomorrow. Wind speeds start to diminish tonight as a result, leading to lighter winds tomorrow. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ049. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-441>443. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ422. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....BT DISCUSSION...CB MARINE.......CB You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.