110 FXUS61 KOKX 240800 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 400 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased POPs for today and Tuesday relative to previous forecast. Otherwise, no other significant changes made. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated to widely scattered shower activity for afternoon into evening today and Tuesday. A slight chance of a thunderstorm also for some locations afternoon into early evening. 2) Brief totally dry conditions midweek but chances for showers and thunderstorms return with greater coverage potential Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... The forecast for today into tonight exhibited change with respect to probability for precipitation. This has trended higher compared to the previous forecast. Also, again this forecast has been manually increased above the POP forecast from the National Blend of Models. The manual increase was done because of the consistent and coherent reflectivity forecasts from many CAMs. Synoptic pattern shows a slow moving closed upper level low that will move across to the north of the region today into tonight. At the surface, a weak cold front will move across. Multiple embedded shortwaves are shown to move across the periphery of this closed upper level low, bringing multiple periods of positive vorticity advection. The heights actually stay nearly constant during this time period as the center of the upper low has slightly increasing heights today into tonight. The vertical forcing will not be too much as a result and thereby will limit coverage of showers to isolated to widely scattered at most. Layer precipitable waters on the lower side for this event, just near 1.25 inch at most. Not expecting any flooding issues but perhaps a brief gusty wind and quick downpour. Would expect slightly less precipitable waters for Tuesday with the more westerly flow. Heights aloft slightly rise as closed upper level low shifts farther northward and starts to become more of an open wave trough. Once again, an embedded shortwave with its positive vorticity advection moves across the area during the day. At the surface, another weak cold front moves across Tuesday into Tuesday night. With less moisture, POPs only slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, or equivalently, isolated showers and thunderstorms. Regarding temperatures, the forecast values are not too remarkable. They are expected to be within a few degrees of normal values for both Monday and Tuesday. Most locations though with their respective high temperature forecasts, do exhibit a small decrease from Monday to Tuesday. .KEY MESSAGE 2... The open wave trough heading into midweek is forecast to shift farther northeast. Across the local area, ridging takes place with a quasi-zonal flow. The ridge axis though already moves across the area late Wednesday into Wednesday night. For late Wednesday night into Thursday, the flow aloft is returning to more SW flow and the next trough will start to move into interior portions of the Northeast. The trough will continue to move east with its closed upper level low for late week but does not push as much south as the previous trough has done for the early week period. Heights aloft across the local area do not change too significantly and any height falls will be slight. At the surface, weak large area of high pressure builds across the area Wednesday but will be centered fairly quickly offshore. Then there will be an approaching frontal system from the west for Thursday. This may linger into Friday with a lingering associated cold front. The aforementioned heights aloft and farther northward track of the closed low will mean less steering flow for this front. The forecast has the next showers and thunderstorms for the area within this Thursday through Friday night timeframe with showers being likely Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Chances for thunderstorms are present and should be able to develop as the airmass becomes a warm and humid airmass with the synoptic setup. The driving factors appear to be more in the low levels compared to the upper levels. Highs forecast Thursday and Friday more in the low to mid 80s but with dewpoints in upper 60s to near 70, max heat indices reach in the upper 80s to near 90 for parts of the region. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front drifts further offshore overnight. A trough of low pressure lingers across the region Tuesday with high pressure gradually building from the west. VFR expected to prevail through the TAF period. There is a low chance of a few isolated showers / thunderstorms this afternoon. At this time confidence remains too low to include in the TAF. Winds will be light overnight mainly out of the W/SW. W/SW winds continue Monday afternoon and increase to or just above 10 kt with gusts around 20 to 25 kt. An isolated gust up to 30 kt can't be ruled out. Some coastal terminals may not gust, or gusts may not be as frequent. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... An isolated gust up to 30 kt can't be ruled out this afternoon. Isolated showers are possible Monday afternoon, but confidence remains too low to include in the TAF. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Monday night: VFR. Tuesday: VFR. WSW around 10 kt. Wednesday: VFR. Light WSW/SW winds. Thursday-Friday: VFR Thu AM, becoming sub VFR with SHRA/TSRA. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... The pressure gradient remains relatively weak on average through midweek across the local region. As a result, conditions on the forecast waters are expected to remain below small craft advisory thresholds. There will be increasing potential for small craft conditions at least on the ocean late week with high pressure offshore and an approaching frontal system. This will set up a tightening pressure gradient. Rip Currents: For the ocean beaches of NYC and Long Island, multiple onshore components comprise the waves for both today and Tuesday. The wave heights forecast are near 2 to 3 feet today and will be around 2 ft on Tuesday. The forecast winds are more onshore today with more SW flow and will be more westerly on Tuesday. Max daytime wind speeds for both days will be within the 10-15 kt range. With the more onshore winds and relatively greater wave heights today, this will present a moderate risk of rip currents. With the more westerly winds and less onshore component and slightly lower wave heights Wednesday, this will still present a moderate risk of rip currents but some ocean beaches could end up being more on the low side for rip current risks. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...JE MARINE...JM  125 FXUS65 KGGW 240800 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 200 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Post-frontal northwest winds expected today with a Lake Wind Advisory in effect. - Warm and dry conditions resume Tuesday as the western ridge rebounds. && .DISCUSSION... WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper trough moving through the Canadian prairies this morning, knocking down the ridge over Montana, and pushing a cold front into the Dakotas. Cooler temperatures along with gusty west to northeast winds are expected across the region today. A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued for Fort Peck Lake for this afternoon. Upper ridge will rebound across the region through the remainder of the week with warming temperatures and dry conditions. By the end of the week another upper trough will push across the west coast, for another round of thunderstorms through the weekend. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Made tweaks to PoPs early this morning and to winds for the Lake Wind period. No other changes to NBM. && .AVIATION... UPDATED: 0700Z FLIGHT CONDITION: VFR following a cold front passage early this morning. Northwest winds will increase to 15-20kt, gusting to 35kt, this afternoon. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow  566 FXUS65 KPIH 240807 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 207 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Southern two-thirds of forecast area under marginal forecast for severe thunderstorms today and tonight. - Thunderstorms continue with less coverage today compared to yesterday. Slight chance of thunderstorms each day through Sunday. - Weak warming trend through Thursday, then a cooling trend to Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Today through Wed night...The upper level ridge centered over the desert southwest will strengthen over the next couple of days. This will put temperatures on a very weak warming trend, but it will not stop moist and unstable air rotating through the upper level southwest flow into southern Idaho. SPC has once again put the southern 2/3 of the forecast area in an area of marginal severe thunderstorm threat. Fortunately, this marginal threat is only expected to last through this evening. Weaker thunderstorms with lessening threat continues Tue through Thu, then beyond this the threat falls off even more. Wind outside of thunderstorms should return to being light. Thu through Sun...As mentioned above, the trend is for less and less thunderstorm activity, barely rating mentioning during this period. However, on Thu this upper level ridge breaks down as the coastal upper level low pushes onshore in southern Canada. This movement causes the airflow to be more westerly and drier, and the incoming low increases the gradient aloft as it makes its closest approach on Thu, Fri, and Sat afternoons, when the stronger wind gets a chance to mix down to the surface. The approach of this low also produces a cooling trend that starts Thu afternoon to the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1041 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Expect virga showers to remain south of TAF sites overnight. Most likely looking at convection once again Monday afternoon with 30% chance of storms at TAF locations. Gusty winds and brief heavy downpours reducing visibilities are main impacts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 140 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Upper level high pressure has built back in, but moist and unstable air from the south continues to flow in. Except for the Salmon-Challis NF and northern end of the Eastern Idaho Dispatch center has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms. Thunderstorms should be mainly dry, and are also becoming more isolated than scattered. Thus through Wed expect warming and drying, with continued poor recovery in the central Idaho mountains especially. Wind will calm down from the Sunday wind event, and stay below critical thresholds through Wed. A low passing to the north, centered in southern Canada, will kick up the wind on Thu, Fri, and Sat afternoons. It also brings in cooler air, so what exactly happens to the humidity readings is up in the air, but there could be critical fire weather conditions for this period. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Messick AVIATION...13 FIRE WEATHER...Messick  658 FXUS61 KRLX 240809 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 409 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated 12Z aviation discussion. Not much change in forecast thinking. Main forecast concerns over the next few days will be morning fog Tuesday/Wednesday and potential for thunderstorms ahead of a cold front Thursday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) High pressure building overhead brings dry, pleasant conditions through Wednesday, though river valley fog will create localized travel hazards late tonight and Tuesday night across valley locations. 2.) Scattered strong thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail are possible Thursday afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front depending on timing. 3.) Lingering shower chances accompany a secondary cold front passage on Friday, followed by dry weather and near-normal temperatures for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A stacked low pressure system situated north of the Great Lakes will weaken and lift northeastward today while surface high pressure slowly works overhead by Tuesday morning. Light northwest inflow around the building high will maintain comfortable humidity levels and slightly below-normal temperatures today. A few light showers across northern West Virginia will exit early this morning as mid-level clouds clear from southwest to northeast. As surface high pressure settles directly overhead tonight and upper-level flow flattens, light winds and clear skies will promote strong radiational cooling. River valley fog is expected to develop after midnight. Another round of valley fog is expected late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning under light synoptic flow. KEY MESSAGE 2... By Thursday morning, low pressure moving north of the Great Lakes will extend a cold front across the lower Ohio Valley and into the southern Plains. Low-level moisture pooling ahead of the boundary will push surface dewpoints back into the lower 60s across the lowlands, supporting modest surface-based instability. Deep-layer vertical shear of 25 to 30KTs will be sufficient for updraft storm organization. Given a dry mid-level layer between H850 and H700 and steepening lapse rates, downdraft momentum transport and hail survival will be enhanced, supporting a threat for localized damaging wind gusts and hail. At this point it seems like the most likely location for this would be across the middle Ohio Valley and points west (largely keeping the threat out of us). However, the exact location and timing of the highest instability axis remain unclear. KEY MESSAGE 3... A secondary cold front is scheduled to cross the region on Friday. Dynamic lift and lingering moisture beneath the trough axis will support scattered showers and isolated non-severe thunderstorms, primarily focused during peak afternoon heating. In the wake of Friday's boundary, high zonal flow will overspread the region through the weekend. High pressure sliding across the Great Lakes will bring a return of dry conditions, light surface winds, and near-seasonal temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Expect mainly VFR cumulus today, 3000-5000ft with westerly surface winds picking up to 6 to 10KTs, before diminishing after 22Z. Surface high pressure settling overhead tonight will produce ideal radiation conditions with calm winds and clear skies. Dense river valley fog will form rapidly after 06Z Tuesday, IFR and VLIFR visibilities and ceilings for favored valley locations. Fog will burn off rapidly between 12Z and 13Z Tuesday, yielding widespread VFR for the remainder of the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog development overnight tonight may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 08/24/26 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L M M L H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... Valley fog likely Wednesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP AVIATION...JP  615 FXUS63 KLBF 240808 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 308 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are expected along a slow moving cold front today and tomorrow. Large hail will be possible with these storms, as well as potential for damaging wind gusts. - With ridging remaining in place across the Intermountain West, precipitation chances will continue Wednesday through Sunday as periodic disturbances track across the region. - Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 80s. Highs in the 90s will return to southwestern and western Nebraska Friday through Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are expected across portions of north central Nebraska early this morning, generally along and east of Highway 281. These showers and thunderstorms will largely be driven by a low level jet. As the jet weakens around daylight, expecting these showers and thunderstorms will quickly drop off. Not expecting any severe weather with the early morning convection, but with PWAT values remaining above 1.5 inches, could see some heavy rainfall with any overnight showers and thunderstorms. Throughout the day, a cold front begins to slowly track south across South Dakota, eventually tracking into Nebraska. Ahead of this, strong moisture advection remains across portions of the region, bringing dewpoints in the 60s across western Nebraska and potentially into the 70s across portions of north central Nebraska. The morning through the mid afternoon should remain a mostly quiet period, with generally clear skies. This will allow for a strong build up of instability across the region, with CAM guidance suggesting 2,000-3,000 J/kg of surface based CAPE to build across the region. While the main core of the upper level jet is expected to remain over the Dakotas, still expect around 30 knots of deep layer shear. Storms are expected to initiate along the front, and given the environment, any storm will have the potential to quickly intensify to severe thresholds. With the slower moving front, expecting that large to very large hail will be the main threat, however, there is also a threat for damaging wind gusts, especially in stronger downdrafts. Of course, with the available moisture, locally heavy rainfall will also be possible, especially with slower moving cells. While the bulk of the storm activity is expected to wind down overnight, storms may linger through the overnight hours, though generally expecting the severe threat to remain low overnight. The cold front is expected to continue its slow track across the region on Tuesday, which may initiate yet another round of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. The location of storms will largely depend on where the cold front stalls out. For now, this appears most likely across southwest Nebraska and portions of north central Nebraska. Forecast soundings suggest a fairly tall CAPE profile and marginal deep layer shear. Combined with the slow moving front, this may set up another threat for large hail Tuesday afternoon, but still cannot rule out a threat for damaging winds. As mentioned, much will depend on the location of the front, as well as how the mesoscale environment evolves through today and tonight's convection. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 A frontal boundary will sag south stalling across the southern panhandle east southeast along the Kansas/Nebraska border. Easterly flow in the low levels will lead to highs in the lower to middle 80s Wednesday. Thunderstorms look to develop Wednesday afternoon across the panhandle and southeastern Wyoming INVOF the front. This activity should track southeast with mid level northwesterly winds. ATTM, the EC, NAM12 and GFS deterministic solns have this favorable forcing over the eastern panhandle and far SW Nebraska. This is also in agreement with the latest NBM forecast. On Thursday, an upper level trough, will enter southwestern Canada suppressing the ridge across the intermountain west and forcing warmer air east onto the high plains. Favorable mid level warm air advection Thursday night and a warm front lifting northeast across the forecast area, will lead to an increased threat for thunderstorms Thursday night. By Friday, the upper level trough will track east and southeast into the Pacific NW. This will flatten the ridge further resulting in westerly mid level winds for Friday into Sunday. This flattening of the ridge will also drive warm air further east into the remainder of the forecast area. By Saturday and Sunday, highs will reach in the upper 80s in the east with lower to middle 90s in the west and southwest. Weak disturbances will cross the central Rockies Friday through Sunday with precipitation chances continuing Friday night and Saturday night. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north central Nebraska throughout the effective TAF period. A low level jet is developing across central Nebraska, which may bring additional showers and thunderstorms overnight across portions of north central Nebraska. While LLWS is not expected at either KLBF or KVTN, winds around 2,000 ft agl may remain around 30 knots through 4 AM CDT. Surface winds become light tomorrow, ahead of a slow moving cold front. By mid to late afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are again expected across the region, which bring the risk for localized ceiling and visibility concerns, as well as gusty and erratic winds. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Richie LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...Richie  234 FXUS61 KCLE 240813 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 413 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No impactful changes were made with this morning's forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Nicer and drier weather will arrive today for most of the area. Scattered lake effect rain showers with isolated thunder possible will continue to impact far NEOH and NWPA today through tonight. 3) A weak cold front will move across the Great Lakes region late Wednesday night into Thursday with the next chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered lake effect rain showers and isolated thunder will continue to impact the "Snowbelt" area of far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania today through tonight. A deep upper level trough has developed over the eastern half of the Great Lakes this morning and will slowly move eastward by tomorrow. The backside of this trough will continue to bring a cooler northerly flow over the eastern Great Lakes today and tonight before it finally pulls away Tuesday. Therefore, scattered lake effect rain showers will continue over NEOH and NWPA through early Tuesday morning. Rain chances or POPS will be likely today and gradually decrease overnight into early Tuesday morning. For the rest of northern and central Ohio, nicer weather will return today with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and drier weather. High pressure will build across the Ohio Valley today and continue to bring very nice weather through Wednesday. High temperatures will be cooler today with upper 60s in far NEOH and NWPA where there will be more clouds and showers from lake effect. North central and Northwest Ohio will have more sunshine with passing scattered clouds and high temps in the lower to middle 70s. It will also feel less humid with the drier airmass moving. High temps will slowly climb over the next few days reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday areawide. Overnight low temps will be in the 50s away from the immediate lakeshore. KEY MESSAGE 2.. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Wednesday night through Thursday evening with a weak, slow moving cold front across the Great Lakes region. The latest model guidance has trended slightly downward on POPs and QPF. At this time, it appears there will be scattered showers and some thunder possible with the greater POPs around 40 to 50 percent during day Thursday. Severe weather is not expected at this as the thermodynamics looks fairly weak. High pressure will build back into the region on Friday with warm and nice day. High temperatures will climb through next weekend with lower to middle 80s across the area. && .AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Main potential impacts this TAF period are lake effect clouds and rain showers across parts of Northeast OH and Northwest PA, and slightly elevated west-northwest winds increasing to 10-15kt with some 20-25kt gusts late this morning and this afternoon. Main impacts from the lake effect will be at ERI, where occasional and mainly short-lived vsby restrictions are possible with any showers that impact the field. Shower activity may focus a bit south and east for the most part. Some showers may impact CLE, primarily early this morning, though for the most part CLE will be dry. A broken cloud deck below 5000 feet will likely develop across Northeast OH and Northwest PA for several hours this afternoon before scattering out or lifting this evening. Western terminals should remain VFR throughout. Outlook...Non-VFR possible at times in lake effect rain and/or low ceilings in far NE OH and NW PA into Tuesday. Non-VFR may return in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday. && .MARINE... Brisk west-northwest winds in the 15-25 knot range will continue through this afternoon, before subsiding to 10-15 knots tonight as high pressure builds out of the Ohio Valley. Winds will diminish to 10 knots or less and become more variable on Tuesday as high pressure moves overhead, before shifting south at near 10 knots Tuesday night and Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. This weak cold front crosses the lake Wednesday night into Thursday, increasing winds slightly to 10-15 knots and veering them to a more southwesterly direction. Waves of 3 to 7 feet will continue across the central and eastern basin through this afternoon before gradually subsiding from west to east late today through Tuesday. All ongoing headlines remain as posted east of the Islands before expiring from west to east late this afternoon or evening. Waterspouts remain possible on Lake Erie with any shower activity through Tuesday morning, especially across the eastern basin. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for OHZ009-010. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for OHZ011-012- 089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ144- 145. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LEZ146>149. && $$ DISCUSSION...77 AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...Sullivan  255 FXUS63 KDMX 240814 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 314 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Early showers will continue to fade as they head east leaving a dry afternoon. - Isolated severe storms are possible with a passing cold front, though dry air may limit coverage. -A more active weather pattern will return with additional thunderstorm chances next weekend, but any further details remain unclear at this range. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Monday Monday morning will begin with a slight increase in cloud cover compared to Sunday, alongside a localized light fog that will yield minimal operational impacts. Recent mesoscale analysis reveals a strengthening LLJ positioned over north-central Nebraska and south- central South Dakota. Along the nose of this LLJ axis, where richer low level moisture return is concentrated, showers and thunderstorms have begun to initiate. Overnight, the LLJ and associated convection will shift gradually eastward. Areas near and west of Omaha and Sioux Falls will maintain 30-50% PoPs through the morning hours. As showers propagate eastward into central Iowa, they will increasingly decouple from the primary moisture transport axis and encounter a significantly drier airmass. Consequently, precipitation will diminish rapidly, with the highest remaining chances (~30%) confined to Crawford and Sac counties. PoPs drop to near 10% toward Des Moines, where any surviving activity will be limited to trace amounts of light sprinkles. By Monday afternoon and evening, deep layer mixing and dry air entrainment will continue to scavenge lingering morning moisture, yielding dry surface conditions. Synoptically, a 500 mb trough currently centered over the Great Lakes will slide eastward, clearing the way for a shortwave to approach the region by Wednesday morning. Further west, a shortwave traversing the Pacific Northwest and southern British Columbia will ride along the upper level ridge, carving out a surface trough across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. An associated cold front is projected to cross the Plains and Midwest Tuesday morning into the afternoon. Tuesday Isolated showers and storms remain possible across northern Iowa Tuesday morning, though the most favorable forcing will reside over southern Minnesota along the LLJ axis. Heading into Tuesday afternoon diurnal destabilization will increase; however, forecast soundings indicate a notable thermal cap that could suppress convection. Where storms manage to initiate, 30-35 0-6 km bulk shear will be sufficient to support isolated strong to severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center has places portions of northwest and Central Iowa in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5), with damaging wind gusts and large hail as the primary hazards. A key forecasting challenge remains moisture availability across central Iowa. Forecast soundings depict a prominent dry slot in the mid levels. Furthermore, upstream convective development across central and northwest Nebraska could effectively rob low level moisture transport into the local area. Given these uncertainties over the next 36 hours, updates to the convective risk profile may be necessary as high resolution guidance arrives. Following the cold front passage Tuesday night, quiet and dry conditions will return Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 108 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 By Wednesday the large 500 MB heat dome will remain in place over the southwestern/south central CONUS, while the trough described in the SHORT TERM section above moves away to our east. This will allow deep-layer ridging to reassert itself just to our west, leading to a period of dry, quiet, and seasonally mild weather with daily highs in the low to mid-80s for the remainder of the week. By Friday and Saturday the pattern will begin to shift a bit, as two large 500 MB lows develop over Canada and shunt the ridge southward, with the heat dome retrograding more over the far southwestern CONUS near Arizona and New Mexico. This will cause 500 MB flow over Iowa to become more zonal, with multiple shortwave impulses moving through the flow and providing several opportunities for thunderstorms from Friday or Saturday into early the following week. While the details of any such storms are very uncertain at this range, it is fair to say that overall the weather pattern will be more active by next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1046 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Confidence in patchy fog tonight is increasing at KOTM/KFOD, though still below 50% and will only be added with amendments as needed. Shower chances between 12z-18z still remain low and minimally impactful at 10-20% at KFOD/KDSM. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TDR LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...De Bruin  440 FXUS65 KCYS 240817 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 217 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue Monday through the end of the week with slightly above average temperature expected until Thursday. - Showers and Thunderstorms Monday afternoon may produce strong gusty winds over southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska through this evening. - Near average temperatures through Wednesday, with a slight warming trend late this week and into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 210 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Current KCYS radar loop shows some lingering showers and embedded thunder across central and south central Wyoming early this morning. Not much forcing in the area, so activity is likely due to remnant outflow boundaries and convection west of the area from Sunday afternoon. Expect this activity to dissipate over the next few hours with relatively quiet conditions expected early Monday morning. Similar convective environment this afternoon in comparison to Sunday, but with more midlevel forcing and a bit more low level convergence along the Laramie Range and the southeast Wyoming eastern plains as a cool front dips south into the region later this afternoon. A poorly defined dry-line will also drift east today as westerly winds increase slightly ahead of the front. These factors should be enough to initiate high based convection for much of the area, especially southeast Wyoming and far western Nebraska. Models show inverted V soundings across most of the region into the afternoon, but a few locations in and around Sidney, Alliance, and Chadron continue to show 800 to 1600 j/kg of MLCAPE with marginal shear values around 25 to 30 knots. Initially, expect most of the convection to produce strong gusty winds...even without any thunderstorms due to the dry boundary layer up to 500mb. Once we head into the late afternoon and evening hours, the surface cool front will push south towards the I-80 corridor and North Platte River Valley. Expect a better chance of rain showers and thunderstorms during this time period, so kept POP between 25 to 40 percent into the late evening hours. The Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms remains over the whole forecast area, mainly for strong gusty winds between 55 to 70 MPH. Further east, SPC has introduced a Slight Risk where the more favorable convective environment is located. Portions of western Nebraska may also see some marginally large hail and strong winds over 65 MPH this afternoon through later this evening. Some of this convection may linger past midnight as moisture advection and some jet energy aloft remains over the area through Monday night. Weather becomes more active starting on Tuesday as models show another potent shortwave, embedded in northwest flow aloft, digging southeast across the I-25 corridor and the eastern plains. Thankfully, 0-6km shear relaxes a bit behind the front with shear values mainly below 25 knots. Heavy rainfall looks to be more of a concern due to slow storm motion/weak winds aloft...with a Marginal Risk for Excessive rain, especially near the Colorado border. Cooler temperatures are also expected with high temperatures around 80 to maybe 85 degrees east of the I-25 corridor. Increased POP up to 50 percent for high-end scattered thunderstorms near the I-80 corridor. May need to extent the highest coverage of thunderstorms further east into the southern and central Nebraska Panhandle depending on low level stability and the amount of CIN. However, the opposite may present a problem as well, and may need to lower POP across the area if low clouds and CIN are too strong along and east of the Laramie Range. For now, will continue to monitor and update asneeded. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 252 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 No major changes to the overall long term forecast as we see conditions slightly warmer than average to start the period and then by the end of the week into next weekend we warm back up to several degrees above average with monsoonal moisture providing a daily chance of thunderstorms with a low end severe risk generally expected each day. At the upper levels, a strong ridge of high pressure will control the Western US, and should continue to hold control until the end of the week when a deep low will approach the western Canadian coastline. This feature may begin to move inland and could interrupt our pattern by late next weekend, but until then expect largely similar conditions each day. Moisture at the surface may begin to slowly dwindle, and by the late week into the weekend elevated fire weather concerns may begin to arise as minimum daytime RH values drop back into the teens. Still, daily PWAT values will sit around 120-130% of normal, and between daytime instability and weak disturbances riding the periphery of the ridge, we should still see thunderstorm chances each afternoon with a low end severe threat possible. At the surface meanwhile, a cold front will stall out on Tuesday and then begin advancing back eastwards as a warm front but should become very slow moving to even stationary, helping to fuel storm initiation through the end of the week. Overall it will be more of the same as we remain in a fairly stagnant pattern through the period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1122 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals for the duration of this TAF period. An exception may be where a shower and/or thunderstorm comes near or over a site, reducing CIGs and VIS briefly to possibly MVFR or lower if a storm becomes intense. So, confidence isn't high in timing and coverage, so PROB30 groups have been introduced for the Nebraska Panhandle terminals and VCSH for the southeast Wyoming sites. Ample time to fine tune the forecast before Monday afternoon's activity. Relatively weak winds overnight with them ramping back up after about 18Z Monday ever so slightly. Expect gusty and erratic winds in and near any shower and/or thunderstorm activity that occurs Monday afternoon. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...RZ  590 FXUS63 KJKL 240820 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 420 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Noticeably less humid air prevails early this week, with below normal morning low temperatures. - Temperatures and humidity will increase Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the next cold front, leading to a potential for storms. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 420 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026 07Z sfc analysis shows high pressure over the Ohio Valley - dominating the weather for Kentucky this night. This has meant mostly clear skies, light to calm winds, and good radiational cooling conditions. As such, areas of fog developed in the river valleys and they have become locally dense. In addition, a small ridge to valley temperature difference showed up with readings ranging from the upper 50s in the lower sheltered spots to the low and mid 60s on top of the hills. Meanwhile, dewpoints were generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict a deep closed low 5h tough over the eastern Great Lakes while stout ridging is noted over the land of enchantment state and western Texas. This places eastern Kentucky on the southwest edge of the northeast trough - a location that keeps a steady stream of air running from northwest to southeast overhead at mid levels. The trough will fill and lift northeast through the start of the week allowing the northwest flow to slow a bit with time while any energy passing through is mostly unconsolidated and benign - a far cry from those that spawned the MCS activity of the past couple of weeks. Only late in the period do we start to see a minor trough develop over the western Great Lakes with a potential impact for our area later in the week. On account of the relatively small spread in the models' solutions for the overall pattern aloft, the unadjusted NBM data was used for the bulk of the grids for this forecast package. However, some enhancements were made to the afternoon dew points and terrain differences at night given the drier air mass in place. PoPs were left near zero through Tuesday evening. Sensible weather each day will feature terrific conditions with comfortable afternoon humidity levels and ample sunshine once the early morning valley fog clears. Temperatures will be on the cool side today and near normal for Tuesday. At night, look for valley fog developing and those valleys to run a few degrees cooler than ridge tops under mostly clear skies and seasonably cool low temperatures. The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to include the impacts of radiational cooling at night for terrain distinction and also some dry air available to mixdown each afternoon - lowering dewpoints and RH. Little opportunity to improve PoPs or QPF was noted through Tuesday evening. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 345 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026 As the long term period opens, a high amplitude upper level ridge will sit over the western CONUS, with troughing in the East. Within this broader troughing, a relatively vertically stacked closed low will be located over Ontario, on the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge. At the surface, a cold front will extend to the southwest of this low (roughly draped from the Upper Midwest into the Great Plains). As this low progresses to the southeast with time, the upper level trough axis will also progress east. A broad area of height falls is expected across the Ohio Valley, intensified by a shortwave that may approach the forecast area around Wednesday afternoon/evening. Concurrently, another surface low originally over the Southern Plains will translate to the northeast, with a warm front lifting north toward Tennessee. Although southwesterly winds should allow for very modest moisture return for the forecast area on Wednesday, the best chances for rain during the day will be closer to the vicinity of the front and the low, well southwest of the forecast area. Thus, the forecast area should remain relatively dry during the day on Wednesday, with warmer weather than in previous days. Highs will rise into the mid to upper 80s, marking a return to average to slightly above average temperatures, and with dewpoints rising back into the 60s, it will feel more humid, too. Following a relatively quiet day, rain chances will tick up again Wednesday night into Thursday as the aforementioned Canadian low translates eastward and its cold front approaches the forecast area. Scattered showers and storms will be possible ahead of this boundary, although with shear remaining weak (with effective shear in the neighborhood of 20-25 kts), more robust storm organization will be lacking. With the parent low so far north, frontal forcing will also be relatively weak, with a barely perceptible temperature and moisture gradient along the frontal boundary by the time it approaches eastern Kentucky. These factors will keep convective coverage scattered overnight Wednesday through Thursday. By Friday, the cold front will have cleared the area, marking a return to a drier pattern. The upper level trough axis will be east of the area; meanwhile, the upper level ridge will have expanded eastward somewhat, with height rises across the forecast area and flow becoming increasingly zonal aloft as the trough lifts northward. Given this pattern, temperatures will likely be above average through the duration of the period, with forecast highs generally in the mid to upper 80s. An isolated shower or storm will be possible in far eastern Kentucky on Friday afternoon where the ridging influence is the weakest; otherwise, rain chances will remain low for the duration of the period, with the most notable weather being typical valley fog formation overnight. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026 Valley fog will spread early this morning bringing localized IFR or worse conditions, probably affecting the KLOZ and KSME TAF sites for a brief time around dawn. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period along with light and variable winds. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...FAGAN AVIATION...HAL/GREIF  867 FXUS61 KCTP 240827 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 427 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Extended a brief period of likely POPs for showers early today across Southern PA and the Lower Susq Valley && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Upper level low pressure near Toronto Ontario early today will drift northeast and diminish its influence on our cool temps and occasionally showery conditions through the midweek period with a gradual warmup in temperatures Tuesday through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Upper level low pressure near Toronto Ontario early today will drift northeast and diminish its influence on our cool temps and occasionally showery conditions through the midweek period with a gradual warmup in temperatures Tuesday through Thursday. Left exit region of an upper level jetlet rounding the base of the upper trough combined with a CFA and sfc reflection in the form of a weak trough has led to areas of showers advecting into South-Central PA and the Lower and Mid Susq Valley early today (and even a few low- topped TSRA a few hours ago near and to the North of KIPT). Expect a fair amount of morning sunshine across the bulk of Central PA after this current, embedded shortwave trough exits to the east and NE later this morning. However, unseasonably cool temps aloft (850 temps mainly +8 to +9C today) will lead to the sunshine taking on a self destruct form with plenty of MDT CU/Thickening strato cu developing /advecting ESE from the NW Mtns twd the central ridge and valley region. The next compact shortwave and mid/upper level speed max will rotate through a bit further to the north today, focusing the vast majority of any showers near and to the north of the RT 6 corridor in northern PA. As noted in previous discussions and based on current high res ensembles and its members, it's unlikely that any precip will get south of I-80, but there will be plenty of clouds. Some showers will linger into the night and possibly early Tuesday before drier air works in as the upper trough departs. Vertical mixing depth increasing to 4-6 kft after 14Z today will lead to a quick increase in the West to West-Southwest breeze with moderate gusts into the upper teens at times. There will be nearly a 20 deg delta in max temps from North to South today, with reading struggling to reach 60F across the highest terrain near and north of RT 6, while the Lower Susq Valley sees afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s. These high temps will be 10-13F below normal across the Northern Tier counties and just a few degrees below normal in the Lower Susq Valley. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upper level trough swinging across the area along with a west to southwest flow over the Great Lakes will continue to bring clouds and periods of rain, mainly across the SE airfields early this morning and the NW Mtns during the daylight hours today. This weather pattern is more typical of late September than late August. Post rain restrictions appear most likely at BFD and JST in the form of low ceilings and/or areas of morning radiational fog. IFR/LIFR ceilings are possible through 12Z with confidence highest at BFD (80-100%). VFR elsewhere. After daybreak, isolated showers and possibly a thundershower remain in the forecast across the northern tier. Cumulus and stratocu will build through the day, but bases will generally rise to VFR levels in the afternoon. MVFR cigs are expected to linger longest at BFD. Outlook... Tue...MVFR cigs possible in the AM across the NW, then trending VFR. Showers/thunderstorms possible in northern tier. Wed...Patchy morning fog, otherwise mainly VFR conditions. Thu-Fri...Chance of showers and storms again, mainly Thursday PM. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert KEY MESSAGES...Lambert DISCUSSION...Lambert AVIATION...Lambert/Lambrech  131 FXUS63 KTOP 240831 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 331 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -A band of scattered showers and storms is possible for a few hours this morning. -A few severe storms could then develop Tuesday afternoon and evening. -Temperatures remain fairly consistent throughout the week with warmer weather returning this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 The synoptic pattern remains largely unchanged this morning, with the mid-level ridge remaining centered over New Mexico. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave over southwestern KS which is generating cloud cover and light rain. There is also a band of showers and storms in south-central KS and north-central OK that has developed just ahead of a surface low in and area of isentropic ascent. Most CAMs show that band of precipitation expanding northward into the area toward sunrise as isentropic ascent increases northeast. There will be around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE, but fairly weak shear as the LLJ looks to stay south of the area. So while thunderstorms are possible, severe weather is not expected this morning. Rain and storms should quickly dissipate as the ascent decreases mid-morning. Temperatures then warm well into the 80s for much of the area this afternoon with heat index values a few degrees higher. The next chance for thunderstorms will be Tuesday afternoon and evening with models showing another shortwave moving over the area within the northwest flow aloft. The environment should be more favorable for a few severe storms with around 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and limited CIN. Shear again isn't overly impressive so damaging wind gusts appear to be the main concern, especially with DCAPE around 1000 J/kg. A weak surface boundary then moves through northeast KS on Wednesday and high pressure expands southward behind it. The mid-level ridge looks to move slightly westward, keeping the track of shortwaves west of the area. Thus, dry weather is expected through the end of the week. Temperatures remain fairly consistent each day with lows in the 60s and highs in the mid to upper 80s through the workweek before temperatures warm further this weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 The main challenge this period is whether storms will impact terminals and when. Model inconsistencies are keeping confidence fairly low, but chances remain around 30 percent Monday morning. Have continued the PROB30 and TEMPO groups for the most likely timeframe of TS. Otherwise, skies will clear and winds will increase to near 10 kts from the southeast. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Teefey  500 FXUS62 KKEY 240839 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 439 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Conditions remain somewhat favorable for an island cloud line and associated waterspouts this afternoon. - Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms today and tonight, with increasing shower and thunder chances thereafter. - Highs near 90 and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s suggest afternoon heat indices will peak at 105 to 108 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 439 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 CIMSS products continue to show a mainly split ridge pattern in place across the area. One ridge remains centered over Texas, New Mexico, and Oklahoma while the other ridge is centered just to the southwest of the Azores. In between these ridges, a mean layer upper level trough remains anchored across the Great Lakes, Northeast U.S. and the Mid-Atlantic states. Florida remains in this sort of Goldilocks zone in between all the large synoptic scale features. However, at the surface, the ridge over the Atlantic has nudged a little further west. Marine observation platforms surrounding the Island Chain are recording southeast to south breezes near 5 knots as a result. GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products shows estimated PWATs of 1.5 to 1.7 inches in place across the Keys. KBYX radar has been detecting shower and thunderstorm activity throughout the overnight, though, this activity has been mostly confined to the SE Gulf waters and has recently waned. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows mostly clear to partly cloudy skies across the Keys with mainly low level cumulus to stratocumulus, perhaps some cumulus congestus. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower to mid 80s and dew points are in the mid 70s. The cool spot is once again the Big Pine Key RAWS where the temperature has dipped to 75 degrees so far overnight. .FORECAST... The western periphery of the ridge over the Atlantic will maintain modest control of the Keys for the next day or two. It will start to gain stronger influence across the area heading towards mid week. Therefore, expect another day of slight chance of showers and thunderstorms as well as tonight. Since the flow is still somewhat weak, the potential exists for another cloud line today. Other than that, some hi-res model guidance remains rather insistent on most of the convection developing just north of the Chain later this morning heading into the afternoon hours. Most guidance suggests the activity waning after that with not much anticipated for the late afternoon and evening hours. However, we still cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm during that time. As the ridge slowly builds into the Keys through the week, it will be met with increasing moisture. Therefore, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected as the week progresses. Latest indications are for this activity not to be all that rambunctious, but rather more of the garden variety type convection. Perhaps a storm or two becomes strong enough to warrant a Special Marine Warning, etc. The interesting time frame actually looks to be towards the latter half of the week. More in the way of upper level support is expected which would give any showers and storms more ferocity. Therefore, it is during this time frame when the more widespread warnings or statements might be needed as well as more widespread shower and storm activity. The aforementioned high pressure will continue to build across the region through the week and into the weekend. This will result in a more stout east to southeast flow with peaking breezes during the evening and overnight hours and lulling during the morning and afternoons. In addition, expect daytime highs near 90 degrees with overnight lows in the lower to mid 80s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Of course, temperatures may fall into the upper 70s where any showers and storms move over. TROPICS: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor 2 areas across the Atlantic Ocean with none of these systems currently posing a threat to the Keys. The area across the Eastern Tropical Atlantic now has a 10% chance of development over 48 hours and 50% chance of development over the next 7 days. && .MARINE... Issued at 439 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a split ridge pattern remains in place across the Florida Keys coastal waters. East to southeast breezes will become more established from this morning through Thursday, becoming generally gentle, at times moderate during the overnight hours, as North Atlantic ridging builds westward. Shower chances will gradually increase as the week progresses. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 439 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. Near surface winds will remain mostly southeasterly through the late afternoon before shifting to the east to southeast for the evening and overnight hours. In addition, a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms remains in the forecast for today along with a cloud line possible. Due to the uncertainty in timing and placement, VCSH was not included in the TAF. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2016, the daily record rainfall of 2.55" was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871. On this day in 1995, the daily record rainfall of 8.33" was recorded in Marathon. This is also the wettest day ever recorded during the month of August. Rainfall records for Marathon date back to June 1950. OF NOTE In 1992, Hurricane Andrew struck south Miami-Dade County, devastating Homestead and causing major damage in the Miami metro area. The southern eyewall brushed the Ocean Reef area in the extreme Upper Keys, causing significant damage to numerous buildings. In terms of lowest central pressure, this was the fifth-most intense hurricane to make landfall in the United States since 1851. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 83 90 83 / 10 10 30 50 Marathon 91 83 91 83 / 20 20 30 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest  570 FXPQ50 PGUM 240842 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 642 PM ChST Mon Aug 24 2026 .Marianas Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows isolated showers across the Marianas as a col begins to drift over the region. Model guidance suggests combined seas of 7 to 9 feet. && .Discussion... The Marianas are currently dry as a col produces divergent flow over the area. However, scattered to numerous showers are visible on either side of the coastal waters and are expected to move in sometime late tonight or tomorrow with shower coverage highest over Guam and Rota. Light to moderate winds tomorrow will trend down by Wednesday and potentially allow for island effect showers and thunderstorms to develop. Winds may stay light enough for continued island effect for Tinian and Saipan Thursday before winds increase late week and into the weekend as a new monsoonal surge potentially moves into the Marianas. While a wetter period is expected late this week with locally heavy showers possible, flooding and mudslide risk has decreased at this time. && .Marine... Significant southwesterly swell driven by the monsoon pattern and Tropical Depression Atsani (19W), well north-northwest of Yap and west-northwest of the Marianas, along with convectively-driven gusts will slightly increase seas back to 7 to 10 feet through tonight. Combined seas are expected to gradually subside to around 5 feet midweek, then gradually rise back up going into the weekend. Light to gentle winds tonight are becoming light to moderate Tuesday. An unsettled, but disorganized monsoon pattern continues to bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Marianas this week with locally heavy showers possible beginning Friday. Hazardous surf and dangerous rip currents continue along west-facing reefs through tonight. So a High Surf Advisory and High Rip Current Risk Statement have been extended through tonight. Surf will begin to decrease by tomorrow with the rip current risk likely becoming moderate for all reefs. There is a moderate risk of lightning for the next several days starting late tonight. && .Tropical Systems... Typhoon Saudel (17W) was centered near 24N136E, moving west-northwest at 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 125 mph near the center, with this intensity persisting overnight. Saudel is expected to continue on this trajectory toward Okinawa, exiting NWS Guam's AOR later tonight. Newly-named Tropical Depression Atsani (19W) was centered near 16N137E, moving north-northeast at 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds remain at 35 mph near the center, with this intensity persisting overnight, remaining a Tropical Depression. Atsani is expected to pivot to the north, following the favorable environment in the wake of TY Saudel. This system will slowly but surely disintegrate as it jets away and opens up into a wave by tomorrow, or potentially earlier if it loses its surface traction tonight. For more information on Typhoon Saudel (17W), please refer to the Tropical Cyclone Warning from JTWC under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW, and the TC Public Advisory from the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM. For more information on Tropical Depression Atsani (19W), please refer to the Tropical Cyclone Warning from JTWC under WMO header WTPN33 PGTW, and the TC Public Advisory from the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ33 PGUM. && .Hydrology... A reinvigorated monsoon trough with a potential embedded tropical disturbance that was previously expected to develop and bring periods of heavy rainfall to the Marianas beginning Wednesday, has continued to fallen behind. The mid to long-term model guidance continues to show a downward trend in any potential cyclogenesis, with the enhanced monsoon pattern now likely to fall apart over the next few days, pushing back any potential heavy rainfall into the weekend, potentially even into early next week as the col overhead lingers and forces diffusive flow. Due to this uncertainty, this will be the last Hydrologic Outlook issued for this rain event, unless conditions warrant a new issuance in the coming days. && .Eastern Micronesia... The forecast remains on track with minimal changes needed. In general, the monsoon trough stretches from the CNMI in the Marianas to a broad/weak circulation northeast of Pohnpei, then to near Kwajalein, extending to north of Majuro and exiting the region at the Date Line. Good surface convergence near and south of the trough will maintain scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm potential area- wide the next few days, possibly longer depending how the trough reorientates later in the week. Winds will be gentle to moderate for Pohnpei and Majuro for the next 72 hours, while being lighter at Kosrae as you are further removed from the trough. Seas of 5 to 7 feet will continue. && .Western Micronesia... A gentle to moderate southwesterly monsoon regime is expected to continue across much of western Micronesia this week, bringing peak shower and thunder coverage to Chuuk tonight through Tuesday, and to Yap sometime late Wednesday into Thursday. Palau will remain under a dry spell as a tropical ridge stays anchored just north of the Equator and most of the convection sits more north and east of the area. Conditions will steadily improve at Yap toward the weekend as diffusive flow moves in, meanwhile Chuuk is expected to see a wetter pattern continue for much of the week as a monsoonal convergence zone lingers. Combined seas of 5 to 7 feet near Palau and Yap, are expected to drop a foot or two the next several days as southwesterly swells and wind waves diminish. After, seas are expected to increase once again once elevated northwesterly swells make it to the region by the weekend. Combined seas of 4 to 6 feet near Chuuk will decrease by about a foot in the second half of the week, to then persist for several more days. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...High Rip Current Risk until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for GUZ001. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for GUZ001. MP...High Rip Current Risk until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for MPZ001>003. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for MPZ001>003. Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM ChST this afternoon for PMZ151>154. && $$ Marianas: Ogle East Micronesia: Doll West Micronesia/Tropical/Hydrology: Montvila  569 FXUS65 KRIW 240842 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 242 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another active weather day is in store today with most locations having a 30% to 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Showers or thunderstorms will be capable of 45 to 60 mph winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. - Shower and thunderstorms chances exist each afternoon Tuesday through the upcoming weekend. High temperatures each day this week are forecast to be in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 40s and 50s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 2:30 AM upper level water vapor imagery shows largely zonal flow with an embedded shortwave disturbance over Wyoming, thanks to an upper high centered over New Mexico. This disturbance has been the focus for showers and a few thunderstorms across southern Wyoming late Sunday night/early Monday morning. As this shortwave progresses eastward through sunrise, coverage is expected to diminish with only a few isolated showers across Sweetwater County. Temperatures today, and most of this week, are forecast to have highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 40s and 50s. An active day is in store as another shortwave rounds the stagnant upper high to our south. This shortwave looks to shift into western Wyoming around noon/1PM Monday, allowing convection to take advantage of peak heating (BL CAPE ranging from 500 to 1000 J/kg). Most locations have a 20% to 50% chance of a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon and evening due to abundant available moisture in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Model forecast soundings are showing a classic inverted-V profile and indicating DCAPE values around 1100 J/kg. Additionally, dew point depressions range from 45 to 55 degrees. These parameters suggest that thunderstorms will be capable of 45 to 60 mph gusty outflows and this correlates well with the SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk across much of Wyoming. Thunderstorms will also be capable of frequent lightning and the potential for small hail cannot be ruled out with steep mid level lapse rates. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast roughly from Noon through at least 1AM Tuesday, with the severe thunderstorm potential occurring between 1PM and 9PM. Given today's shortwave will be working with monsoonal moisture and PWATs around the 90th percentile of climatology, any shower or thunderstorm will be capable of heavy rain and localized flooding. It is important to note that storms will be moving today with cloud layer shear in the 30 to 40kt range. The localized flooding issues arise if multiple storms traverse over the same area. The current forecasted QPF for today and tonight is a broad brushed 0.01 - 0.1 inches due to the overall scattered, but widespread coverage, nature of storms today. It is very difficult, if not impossible, to pin point the exact locations of showers and thunderstorms that could traverse over the same area and/or produce heavier rainfall rates. On Tuesday, the aforementioned upper high will build northwards into the Great Basin with a ridge axis over Idaho. As this builds, another shortwave, although weaker than today, is forecast to traverse across Wyoming and bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances. Flow will be more west to west-northwesterly with the building ridge to our west, so monsoonal moisture is forecast to be greatest across west, northwest, and northern Wyoming. Given the weaker support aloft with overall height rises, showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon are forecast to be largely orographically and diurnally driven along and north of the Continental Divide. The upper ridge slowly shifts east across Wyoming on Wednesday and Thursday with shortwave disturbances both afternoons.Wednesday currently looks to have less coverage and be largely terrain driven compared to Thursday. This is most likely due to height rises aloft suppressing more numerous convective activity. As the forecast currently stands, a more potent shortwave will be present as the ridge shifts east out of Wyoming on Thursday. This means that Thursday could be an active weather day for the area. Wyoming is currently forecast to be in southwest flow behind the ridge Friday through at least Sunday with embedded shortwaves each day. This ultimately means that another weekend with afternoon showers and thunderstorms is looking possible. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1028 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Showers and thunderstorms have weakened and will continue to dissipate across much of the area to start of the period. VFR conditions are expected to prevail over nearly all terminals through the period. Winds remain light through much of the overnight into the morning hours Monday. Winds begin to increase to 10-15 knots ahead of the next round of convection during the early afternoon hours on Monday. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to begin developing Monday afternoon and into the evening. All terminals look to have chances for a shower or storm mainly from 19Z Monday to 04Z Tuesday. The main concerns with any of the stronger storms will be strong gusty outflow winds of 30 to 40 knots, frequent lightning, and brief periods of heavy rain. MVFR to IFR conditions cannot be ruled out especially if any storms move directly overhead a terminal. Showers and thunderstorms should come to a gradual end by 03-04Z Tuesday. However, a few lingering showers cannot be ruled out to the end of the TAF period but at this time there still remains low confidence in the location and timing for these showers. Mountains may be obscured at times to start the TAF period but conditions should improve during the day Monday. Obscuration is likely to return in association with developing showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gerhardt AVIATION...Dziewaltowski  870 FXUS63 KEAX 240849 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 349 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer today, with highs in the low to mid 80s for most locations. - Seasonal temperatures (highs in the mid to upper 80s) expected for Tuesday through Friday. - Showers and thunderstorms possible Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. - Hot and humid conditions likely this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Northwesterly flow aloft remains entrenched over the region between high amplitude ridging across the Rockies and western CONUS and troughing across the NE CONUS and into the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, the center of the high has drifted off to the east a bit, but winds remain light and out of the east to southeast. Conditions this early morning are quite pleasant for late August, with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s for most locations (upper 50s across NE Missouri). A few light showers are ongoing across the region as of 3 AM, but these are still dealing with dry low levels. The south southeasterly oriented low level jet is beginning to strengthen a bit, but the strongest corridor of the LLJ will remain west of our CWA from roughly Salina into NE Oklahoma. CAMs suggest additional convective development within a few hours, but this should remain west and southwest of the CWA within the better LLJ dynamics (although perhaps some showers and storms could make their way into Linn County KS). Meanwhile, a subtle shortwave and vort max translating through the northwesterly flow along the northeastern periphery of the upper ridge has initiated an MCS across extreme SE South Dakota and into NE Nebraska. This will continue to drift to the south southeast this early morning, but should dissipate before reaching far NW Missouri. Dry conditions are likely for this afternoon, with decent high level cloud cover lingering through early to mid afternoon. High temperatures this afternoon should range between around 80 degrees across NE Missouri to the mid 80s elsewhere (upper 80s south of the KC metro toward Linn County KS and Bates County MO). We will get some moisture return today, with dew points increasing from their current values in the upper 50s to lower 60s to the mid 60s to perhaps even upper 60s. The synoptic scale pattern remains mostly status quo heading into tomorrow. The H5 high remains centered over New Mexico and into west Texas, with mid/upper troughing across the NE CONUS and another upper trough moving across Saskatchewan into the Upper Midwest, flattening the ridge up north, as NW flow remains in place over the CWA. Temperatures should rebound into the mid to upper 80s Tuesday afternoon (lower 90s possible toward the Butler area) with dew points increasing further by a couple degrees. Weak height falls and strong daytime heating is likely to initiate scattered storm coverage across portions of south Central Nebraska into northern Kansas by mid to late Tuesday afternoon, with this moving off to the east southeast through the remainder of the afternoon hours and into Tuesday evening/night. The question is just how far east convection will be able to maintain itself, but SPC has put far NE Kansas and NW Missouri into a marginal risk for severe storms for Tuesday evening, with chance PoPs (30 to 40%) across much of the CWA for Tuesday evening/night. For Wednesday through Friday, the H5 high is progged to migrate over the Desert Southwest, with high amplitude ridging across the Rockies and as far north as the Canadian Plains of Alberta and Saskatchewan, with longwave upper troughing extending southward from Hudson Bay all the way through the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley. This will continue to place our CWA beneath northwesterly mid/upper flow. Daily highs should be in the mid to upper 80s (right at seasonal normals) with generally dry conditions expected. By this weekend, the upper ridge axis is progged to drift further east, so closer to our CWA, as an upper trough comes ashore across the Pacific Northwest. This should lead to increased mid level heights and warmer 850 temps, translating to surface high temperatures into the upper 80s to low to mid 90s and increased humidity for Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1036 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions anticipated to prevail across the terminals through the period. Only notable change vs previous (00z) issuance is the removal of PROB30 showers at KSTJ with more recent guidance suggesting lesser chances. Otherwise, hi- res/CAM guidance continues to keep majority of overnight/morning scattered shower/storm activity to the W/SW of the terminals, allowing mentions to remain out of the TAFs. KC Metro terminals have seen winds organize more out of the E, while KSTJ remains light and variable at this time, but too will join the E/ESE prevailing direction overnight. Daytime sustained winds may approach 10kts, but remains out of the E to ESE. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMW AVIATION...BMW  191 FXUS63 KFSD 240855 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 355 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms progress eastward early this morning. Further severe weather risks are very low, but locally heavy rain is expected under any thunderstorm. However, the risk for flash flooding is very low as well. - An isolated severe storm is possible this evening into the overnight, with better chances in central SD and also near and north of Highway 14. An isolated stronger storm may also develop across portions of northwest Iowa/southwest Minnesota late Tuesday afternoon. - Seasonable temperatures through the week ahead with highs in the upper 70s and 80s, and lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 A progressive cluster of showers and thunderstorms continues to track east-southeast across southeast South Dakota early this morning. Have seen an occasional brief uptick in storm strength at the southern end of the line throughout its lifecycle, but outside of a couple of weak supercells with stronger hail cores just before/around midnight, storms have remained below severe limits. Stronger cores are producing swaths of heavier rainfall with a few personal weather station reports around 2 inches in far southern Bon Homme County. Storms looks to impact portions of the I-29 corridor, mainly south of Sioux Falls, through the morning drive time, and may have to watch the Sioux City metro for localized flooding concerns if the heavier rain rates just south of the Missouri River maintain current strength over the next 2-3 hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A pair of waves are affecting the area, or nearby, today. The first is moving southeast through Nebraska and is keeping any instability to the south and west bottled up. Model soundings not hinting at a whole lot of activity this afternoon, with a fairly dry and stable air mass in place. Tonight a second wave will pass by to the north and will swing a little bit of mid level moisture into the area. As this moisture moves in, some weak elevated instability, likely 500-750 J/kg CAPE develops. This will support some scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity, but for now severe weather looks unlikely. A few pockets of heavier rain are also possible, but also trending downward. Monday will see temperatures warm a bit with humidity likely to increase as well. This is in response to strengthening southerly flow as a stronger wave moves east along the Canadian border. This will increase instability, especially to the northwest of the area, and should bring scattered thunderstorms to parts of central SD and near the highway 14 corridor. With the potential for about 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE and decent unidirectional shear, and isolated severe storm will be possible in these locations. One area to watch will be near northwest IA late Monday afternoon and evening where there are some hints the cap could weaken a bit as elevated moisture advection bring some instability to that area. Low confidence, but something to monitor. Northwest flow aloft Tuesday into the weekend will keep seasonally warm temperatures in place with highs in the 80s and lows from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Starting to see a little more consistency on the next better chance for showers and thunderstorms on Friday. The latest Canadian, GEFS and EC ensembles all indicate about a 30-50 percent chance for a tenth of an inch or more of precipitation. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed in central South Dakota and will generally push east-southeastward through the rest of the night into the early morning hours today. Some lingering showers and thundershowers will continue to be possible through the rest of Monday morning mainly east of I-29 as well. Some guidance has also consistently been hinting at some MVFR stratus developing behind the main wave of showers/storms this morning mainly north of I-90. Confidence in this potential is on the lower side, but enough signals to include it at KHON. By this evening, additional thunderstorms will develop off to our west, though uncertainty is high regarding how far storms are able to progress east into our area if at all. For this reason, opted to exclude mention of this at KHON at this time. Winds will be mainly out of the south-southeast today, gusting up to 20 kts at times. Winds will gradually diminish towards the end of the period outside of any thunderstorms. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JH DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...Samet  146 FXUS64 KHUN 240854 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 354 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New NEAR TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 736 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms exists during the middle part of this week. The primary hazard will be locally excessive rain and lightning. There is a low chance of few strong storms with gusty winds as well. && .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 354 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Northwest flow aloft of 15-25 knots will persist across the TN Valley for the duration of the near term period, as we will remain located between a strong subtropical high (centered across southern NM) and an ejecting shortwave trough (across the northeastern CONUS and adjacent portions of OT/QC). In the low- levels, a ridge of high pressure will extend from OT south- southeastward into the TN Valley, maintaining light northerly winds and a notably cooler/drier airmass than we have experienced for much of the month of August. Although a weakening vort max (currently traveling southeastward from central MO) has contributed to dense high-level clouds (and a few patches of virga) early this morning, we expect clouds to disperse rather quickly by mid-morning as the decaying disturbance progresses further southeastward and away from the region. Thus, after early morning lows in the l-m 60s (coolest across northeast AL), abundant sunshine will allow highs to once again reach the u80s-l90s. With clusters of thunderstorms (originating across the southern Plains) expected to travel south-southeastward toward the central Gulf Coast (in the vicinity of a boundary layer moisture gradient positioned well to our southwest), we will maintain a dry forecast for the rest of the day. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 736 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 NW flow will persist through mid week with higher theta-E, moisture and instability being shunted to our south and southwest through Monday into Monday night. Another pleasant day is forecast Monday with dew points staying in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90. As a shortwave drops into the lower MO Valley on Tuesday, mid level moisture will begin to edge further east into AL and middle TN. This brings a very low chance of showers Tuesday. Low levels will likely be too dry to support much precipitation. The shortwave will pivot into the mid South and TN Valley Tuesday Night into Wednesday. The models differ greatly with the strength of the wave, magnitude of the associated LLJ, and consequently the influx of theta-E and convergence. The most plausible scenario is that elevated convection, possibly in the former of MCS clusters will develop Tuesday night in MO at the nose of the LLJ. These drop into western KY, much of western and central TN and into north AL by Wednesday, followed by eventual cold front passage late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Given the uncertainty, the NBM has low to medium chance PoPs at this point. Locally heavy rainfall may become the primary risk with this event, but a few strong storms could also develop with 20-25kt of 6km bulk shear. As of now, NBM has highs in the lower 90s for most valley area, but this appears to be questionable if the morning MCS clusters arrive as the models are depicting. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 736 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The axis of an upper level trough is shown to be right over the Southeast to start the long term, with shortwaves rippling along the flow across the ArkLaMiss and into the Tennessee Valley. This trough will gradually be pushed northeast as an upper ridge over the Desert Southwest builds over the southern Plains and eastward into the Southeastthis weekend. At the surface, a boundary looks to linger over central Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia through midweek; but, another cold front is expected to push through the Tennessee Valley on Thursday. There may be a reinforcing front that swings through on Friday, but high pressure is shown to quickly build over the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and portions of the Northeast next weekend. Overall, the best chance of showers and storms will likely be Wednesday night through Thursday. Chances then decrease from late week through the weekend as drier air is filtered into the region. Guidance indicates that PWATs increase to around 2 inches late Wednesday through Thursday. While there will likely be sufficient instability with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Thursday afternoon, model bulk shear values and lapse rates have decreased since yesterday. So, confidence in stronger storms (downbursts) has also decreased; however, these trends will continue to be monitored. Regardless, showers and storms will be efficient rainfall producers. Heavy rain, especially from cells moving over the same locations repeatedly, may result in at least minor flooding issues. Ultimately, keep any eye on forecast updates this week and turn around, don't drown if you encounter flooded roads! For Friday through Sunday, rain chances are lower with continued high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 141 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Broken-overcast cirroform clouds will continue to spread southeastward across northern AL early this morning, as a weakening upper-lvl disturbance approaches the region in NW flow aloft. Although a few patches of virga (or perhaps a sprinkle or two of lgt RA) may also occur through 12-14Z, conditions will remain VFR at the HSV/MSL terminals as the high-lvl ceilings should largely inhibit development of BR/FG (in spite of a lgt NE- calm wind). The dense cloud cover aloft will begin to disperse around 15Z, leaving only a sct coverage of Ci (and few Cu during the aftn). Sfc winds will diurnally back to NNW and increase to 5-10 kts later this morning, before a lgt ENE flow becomes reestablished this evening. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...70/DD SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...70/DD