996 FXUS61 KAKQ 240700 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 300 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable humidity through Wednesday. Mainly dry outside of isolated showers/storms in NE NC. 2) Unsettled conditions return mid to late week with daily chances for showers/storms. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 AM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable humidity through Wednesday. Mainly dry outside of isolated showers/storms in NE NC. Mostly clear early this morning with a bit of chill in the air, especially away from the coast. Already seeing a few obs in the upper 50s in a few of our rural Piedmont sites with 60s elsewhere (70s near the coast). While another warm day is expected today (highs mid-upper 80s), dew points in the 50s (60s near the coast) should make it feel quite comfortable. High pressure remains in place Tuesday and then gradually shifts offshore Wednesday, which will then allow for a gradual return to the humidity. However, Tuesday should be another with dew points in the 50s and it will again feel quite nice out despite the warm temps. Expecting mainly dry wx for most of our CWA through Wednesday. CAMs continue to indicate some isolated showers could develop near the Albemarle Sound (and points S) this afternoon, but the coverage doesn't justify more than a 20-30% PoP. Instability also looks on the meager side so don't expect more than an isolated rumble of thunder with any activity. Could be a similar scenario Tuesday and Wednesday as a weak sfc trough remains in place along the NC/SC coast. KEY MESSAGE 2... Unsettled conditions return mid to late week with daily chances for showers/storms. Moisture returns to the Mid-Atlantic later Wednesday through the end of the week with the offshore high and SW flow aloft. This favors a return to daily chances for showers and storms. As of now, Thursday and Friday look like the days with the highest coverage of storms as a frontal system approaches the area. Some stronger storms could also be possible, depending on the strength of the flow aloft. Zonal flow sets up by next weekend with continuing, but probably lower, shower/storm chances. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 105 AM EDT Monday... VFR conditions prevail through the 06z TAF period, outside of very patchy ground fog near ECG early this morning. Light and variable winds this morning become W-SW 5-10 kt this afternoon. FEW/SCT CU likely develop as heating/mixing gets underway late morning through the afternoon. Outlook: Dry and prevailing VFR conditions expected through the mid week period. && .MARINE... As of 300 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Benign marine conditions are expected through much of the week. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through much of the week. A subtle trough is pushing across the coast early this morning. The wind is generally SW 5-10kt and locally 10-15kt. Seas are 2-3ft with waves in the Ches. Bay ~1ft. The wind should become WNW 5-10kt in the wake of the trough this morning, before becoming S/SSW 5-10kt this aftn and evening. A weak cold front crosses the coast early Tuesday resulting in a wind shift to N 10-15kt for a 3-6hr period early/mid Tuesday morning, before becoming E/NE Tuesday aftn. High pressure settles off the Southeast coast mid to late week. Light S/SE flow of 5-10kt is expected Wednesday, before becoming SSE 10- 15kt (~15kt for the Ches. Bay) late Wednesday aftn through the early overnight hours Wednesday night. A similar pattern is expected Thursday, with lighter S/SE flow during day becoming SSE and increasing later in the aftn and evening. The wind direction trends to S/SW by Friday with wind speeds less than 15kt. A weak cold front may cross the coast by early Saturday. Seas are expected to be 2ft to occasionally 3ft through the week, with 1ft to occasionally 2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The only exceptions in the Ches. Bay are potential 2-3ft waves behind the cold front early Tuesday, and with the increased SSE flow Wednesday evening. A 10-12 sec. dominant wave period is expected today through Tuesday. However, the rip risk should remain low as long as nearshore waves remain 2ft or less. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AC/SW AVIATION...SW MARINE...AJZ  024 FXUS66 KMTR 240701 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1201 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages persist within the marine layer through the rest of the week - Warm and dry conditions continue above 1000 feet - Pattern change Friday into the weekend brings cooler temperatures and possible tropical moisture && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 (Today and tonight) For the last couple of days we've written the tale of a battle between the eastern Pacific trough and the Desert Southwest ridge that has dominated our weather pattern. Today it's the troughing that will take the upper hand as a cutoff low inches towards the Pacific Northwest, leading to slightly cooler temperatures and cloudier mornings across the region. Another interesting factor today is a weak shortwave trough coming into the region through the morning. The two main global weather models, the European ECMWF and the American GFS, are showing that there could be enough instability, moisture, and lift to maybe, just maybe, support a few high-based thunderstorms developing across the North Bay, particularly over Napa County. This is a very low probability forecast (around 5% chance through around 11 AM), along with a low confidence for storm development. The higher resolution NAM, HRRR, and RRFS models do not show any signs of developing storms, lapse rates aloft are marginal at best, and K-Index values below 20 degrees Celsius suggest no chance for developing thunderstorms. Any precipitation that does develop is also likely to end up as virga, evaporating within the vast dry low layer where relative humidity values as of the 0Z (5 PM PDT) OAK sounding fell into the single digits. Today's highs range from the 80s into the lower 90s for the inland valleys, the middle 90s to the triple digits across the warmest interior spots, the upper 60s to the upper 70s near the Bays, and the upper 50s to the middle 60s along the Pacific coast. The higher elevations above the marine layer influence will remain rather day, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Breezy onshore pattern winds will develop this afternoon and evening with wind gusts reaching 20 to 30 mph along coastal jet regions, through favored gaps and passes, and within the northern Salinas Valley. Smoke from the Timber Fire will continue impacting the immediate area around the actively burning fire through the day, with winds aloft lofting the smoke plume over Salinas and Hollister. For air quality information, refer to products issued by the Monterey Bay Air Resources District. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 (Tuesday through Sunday) Temperatures rebound Tuesday and Wednesday as the ridge reasserts itself, with the inland valleys reaching highs in the middle 80s to the middle 90s on Wednesday and Thursday while the Bays reach the lower 70s to the lower 80s. A pattern change will begin later on Thursday as a deep trough builds into the West Coast while the ridge begins to inch its way eastwards towards the Southern Plains. It will be interesting to see what the trough will do as the upcoming weekend comes closer and we are better able to refine the forecast. Also worth a mention is the possibility of tropical moisture coming into the region, with our colleagues at the National Hurricane Center tracking Tropical Storm Iselle and three other areas of interest off the coast of Mexico. While the circulations remain far to the south of our waters, the resultant moisture will be captured by the developing trough with a wide variation in just how far north the moisture goes.By way of example, the deterministic European ECMWF model brings a swath of tropical moisture into the San Francisco Bay Area by Friday morning, whereas the deterministic GFS keeps the moisture plume to the south of Monterey County. In addition, wave models are also showing an increase in southerly swells as the tropical eastern Pacific remains active into the early part of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 919 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR continues except for areas of coastal stratus and mist/fog /MVFR-IFR-LIFR/. Mid and high clouds, including wildfire smoke over the north Central Coast, are moving northeastward over the forecast area. Coastal stratus and mist/fog /MVFR-IFR-LIFR/ redevelop and move inland tonight and Monday morning. Conditions improve to MVFR-VFR along the coast late Monday morning and afternoon otherwise VFR Monday. Coastal stratus and mist/fog /MVFR-IFR-LIFR/ redevelop and move inland Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Vicinity of SFO...VFR prevails until stratus /MVFR/ develops 12z Monday. VFR returns 18z Monday. Stratus /IFR/ develops Monday evening and night. West wind 5 to 15 knots. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus and mist/fog /IFR-LIFR/ move inland mid to late evening to Monday morning. Conditions improve to MVFR-VFR late Monday morning and afternoon. Stratus and mist/fog /IFR-LIFR/ redevelop and move inland Monday night. West to northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 836 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Moderate northwest breezes gradually diminish this evening and become gentle by tomorrow. Occasional strong gusts are possible this evening, particularly across the Northern outer waters and near the Big Sur coast. Slight to moderate wind driven seas prevail into the work week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  132 FXUS62 KILM 240703 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 303 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes coming down the track as we hit 3 AM EDT. Updated aviation discussion found below for the 06Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, especially along the eastern portions of the forecast area. - 2) Temperatures remain near seasonal norms much of this week, with more organized chances of showers and storms due by later this week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, especially along the eastern portions of the forecast area. Latest surface analysis shows a weak front draped across the forecast area, cutting through roughly from Florence, SC up through Elizabethtown, NC. A couple of isolated showers have popped up near this boundary during the overnight hours, but the majority of the area remains quiet for now. Throughout today, this front will try to drift a little more southward towards the coast, but likely stalling out before it gets there. Meanwhile, a broad upper low spinning over the Great Lakes, Ontario, and Quebec has a wide trough axis that comes all the way down into the Carolinas. This axis will continue to deepen slightly, and move eastward into the local forecast area. The bulk of the vorticity is locked way up north, but shortwaves within the trough will allow for some extra forcing later in the day. The seabreeze will allow for initial convection to kickoff sometime around 1-2 PM EDT this afternoon just inland from the coast. The frontal boundary and the forcing aloft will act to exacerbate storms aided by their outflows. Along the eastern half of the forecast area, dewpoints well into the 70s will promote buoyancy, going hand- in-hand with the moderately strong instability in play. Effective shear parameters also look a bit more convincing in the coastal areas, generally 30-40 kts. Overall, scattered storms expected near the coast this afternoon, gradually pushing inland with the outflows. Strong to severe storms are possible, particularly with damaging winds and perhaps a brief spin-up tornado. A "Slight Risk" (threat level 2/5) of severe weather possible east of I-95. Storms should start coming down by sunset. .KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures remain near seasonal norms much of this week, with more organized chances of showers and storms due by later this week. Temperatures should remain rather even keeled this week. Highs each day hover somewhere in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Only a few isolated spots may hit heat indices in the triple digits at times, and thankfully, no advisory-level heat expected this week. A more organized frontal system comes into play Thursday and Friday, which may stall out near the coast over the weekend. As a result, more appreciable rain and thunderstorm chances look to come to fruition. Precipitable water (PWAT) values hit 2 inches again, pointing towards a tropical atmosphere (minus the tropical storm part). The drought continues across the area, and this may afford more opportunities to keep chipping away at it. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mostly VFR through the 06Z TAF period. MVFR fog ongoing at KMYR, and may spread over towards KFLO and KLBT by 09-10Z. IFR fog is possible in these same areas, particularly at KFLO. Used TEMPO groups to show the trends. Fog should mix out by 13Z or so. A weak front will move into the vicinity and stall out just inland from the coast. The front and seabreeze will result in some convection by 17-18Z mainly towards the coast, handled by PROB30 groups. Convection should subside by sunset this evening. Winds calm after sunset, and fog could be an issue again towards the end of the period. Extended Forecast...Mainly VFR with early morning fog and stratus possible each morning. The areal coverage of storms is projected to increase at all terminals from the mid to latter parts of the week. This could lead to restrictions from time to time in/near any of the rounds of convection that develop. && .MARINE... Through Friday...A weak front will move towards the coast today with S-SWly flow prevailing across the adjacent waters. This boundary may become nearly stationary along the coast the first part of the week with light/variable conditions near the front and generally light S-SWly to its east and south. Any convection has the potential to create locally higher wind/wave conditions. The old boundary will likely drift back to the north by mid-week with an increase in S-SWly flow that will persist through Friday. Overall, seas will be in the 2-4 ft range offshore, and 1-3 across the coastal waters. However, as mentioned above, locally enhanced winds/seas are expected at times as a result of convection. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB KEY MESSAGES...IGB DISCUSSION...IGB AVIATION...IGB MARINE...IGB  103 FXUS63 KIND 240702 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 302 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and less humid weather expected through Tuesday - Scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday evening into Thursday && .DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)... Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Today through Tuesday night... Patchy fog has developed across central Indiana this morning due to very light winds and mostly clear skies. Current observations show this fog has mostly developed in climatologically favored locations in valleys or near rivers. Look for this to become more common in favored locations through daybreak before then quickly mixing out after sunrise. Mostly quiet weather conditions are expected early this week with surface high pressure across the region. Aloft, upper troughing shifts east into Tuesday while ridging builds in. This should allow for a slight moderation in temperatures, but seasonably cool temperatures will persist given negligible thermal advection. Highs will generally range from the mid 70s to low 80s. Very light winds and mostly clear skies again tonight into Tuesday morning will promote patchy fog development. Any fog that develops should quickly mix out in typical diurnal fashion. Surface high pressure begins to shift east late Tuesday allowing for surface flow to become more southerly late overnight. Wednesday through Sunday A weakening upper level low riding overtop of the western ridge will drop into the upper Midwest early Wednesday before becoming absorbed by a broader long wave trough that will amplify across the eastern half of the country for late week. Low pressure and an associated cold front running in tandem with the upper wave will track across the Ohio Valley Wednesday evening through early Thursday in a progressively weakened condition as stronger forcing aloft is lost. There will be enough moisture and instability along and immediately ahead of the frontal boundary for scattered convection with the front clearing the forecast area during the day Thursday. Isolated convection is possible on Thursday across east-central IN before the front moves out. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out Wednesday evening into Wednesday night as guidance depicts moderate instability ahead of the approaching front along with slight enhancement of mid-upper level flow from the approaching wave aloft. Confidence remains low due to varying model solutions, but trends will continue to be monitored. These details should become more clear once guidance is better aligned. High pressure will reestablish in the wake of the frontal passage drifting slowly east through the Great Lakes into Saturday. This bring another multi day stretch of dry weather with seasonable temperatures as highs will focus largely in the low to mid 80s. The ridge will flatten to the west over the weekend opening the possibility for convection to impact the region by late weekend into early next week as multiple waves ride along in the predominantly zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will also rise back into the mid and upper 80s by the end of the forecast period with an uptick in humidity levels. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 128 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Impacts: - MVFR or worse visibilities in fog possible at outlying terminals 07Z-13Z, especially at KLAF Discussion: Mainly VFR conditions to continue across central Indiana through the period as Canadian surface high pressure crosses the Midwest. Expect light and variable winds through daybreak with fog/BR possible at the outlying sites between 07Z-13Z today. Expect northwest winds sustained up to 3-8KT later today before winds become light and variable again tonight.Fog will be possible again at the outlying TAF sites late tonight into Tuesday morning. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ AVIATION...Melo DISCUSSION...Ryan/Melo  063 FXUS64 KLZK 240701 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 201 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 -Relatively cooler temperatures will be seen from today through much of the upcoming week, compared to the brutal temperatures felt across Arkansas last week. -The greatest chance for appreciable rainfall totals across parts of the state will be today looking ahead through Sunday. -Northwesterly flow will begin to be interrupted by the weekend as the upper lvl ridge begins to elongate and become placed over the Southern Plains leading to an uptick in temperatures and decrease in rain chances statewide. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 As of just after 1 AM CDT, scattered rain showers with a few weak thunderstorms have entered Arkansas and are impacting portions of northern and central parts of the state moving in a trajectory south- southeastward through Arkansas. Intensity and coverage is expected to expand throughout the morning across the state. In the upper lvls northwesterly flow over Arkansas continues to be the main weather driver across the CWA as the center of the pronounced upper lvl ridge remains cemented over the Four Corner region of the CONUS. At the sfc, a weak cold front has pushed into Louisiana. The proximity of a low level jet and associated mid-level jet streak has led to the development of the rain and storm activity moving across Arkansas. Expect isolated to scattered coverage of storms across much of the state this morning, especially the central and southern portions of the state after sunrise. Rain and storms will continue an overall movement of northwest to southeast across corridors of the state. Rain and thunderstorm chances will begin to diminish into the overnight hours across the southeastern part of the state wrapping up the event completely. The main hazard with any storm that does manage to become severe will be damaging wind gusts. A lower-end flash flooding threat does exist, especially as these cells will likely train over the same locations which may lead to appreciable rainfall totals over a quick amount of time in the most efficient convection. From Tuesday through Sunday, expect a gradual warming of temperatures as POP chances diminish overall (with a few small exceptions) across the state as the week progresses. A stationary boundary will be draped across the state on Wednesday and be pushed southward by a weak cold front during the day on Thursday. However, confidence of widespread activity noted similar to today will likely not be present as any convection will be isolated. Into the weekend, POP chances across the CWA lower to near zero as the upper lvl ridge elongates over both the Four Corners region and Southern Plains regions of the CONUS. In response, overall temperatures will continue to tick upwards and high temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees are expected across most of the state, especially into the later part of the weekend and early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR flight category is expected over the majority of the forecast period from early Monday morning through early Tuesday morning across all TAF sites. A complex of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be moving across Arkansas from north to south across the state. However, coverage is not anticipated to be widespread, therefore TEMPO and PROB30 groups along with periods of VCTS and VCSH are introduced across all sites. If a TAF site does become directly impacted by a shower or thunderstorm, then VSBY may drop to MVFR or IFR. Surface wind gusts in excess of 30 knots have been introduced within the TEMPO and PROB30 groups. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 89 71 95 72 / 60 20 10 40 Camden AR 92 73 98 73 / 40 20 10 10 Harrison AR 86 69 92 70 / 80 10 0 30 Hot Springs AR 90 73 98 74 / 40 20 10 10 Little Rock AR 89 74 97 75 / 80 20 10 20 Monticello AR 89 72 95 74 / 80 30 30 10 Mount Ida AR 91 71 99 72 / 40 20 10 10 Mountain Home AR 86 69 92 70 / 60 10 10 20 Newport AR 89 72 94 72 / 30 20 10 40 Pine Bluff AR 88 72 95 73 / 80 20 20 20 Russellville AR 90 72 97 73 / 70 20 10 20 Searcy AR 89 71 95 72 / 80 20 20 30 Stuttgart AR 89 73 95 74 / 80 20 20 30 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...74  200 FXUS63 KDTX 240705 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 305 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slightly cooler than average conditions today with rain chances persisting in the Thumb this morning. - Warming trend for the middle of the week with the next chance of rain coming in the late Wednesday and Thursday period. - War,er and noticeably more humid conditions for the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Deep upper level trough will maintain its influence over Southeast Michigan throughout the day. Combination of warm lake water temperatures with tight cyclonic flow will continue to bring lake effect or bay effect rain chances to the Thumb this morning. The outstanding question is when rain will eventually pull away from Huron County today. Forecast soundings support a fair amount of warming in the 3.0 to 6.0 kft agl layer after 15z as lower heights push eastward. The net result is that higher midlevel stability working into the top of the mixed layer should cause lake/bay effect to become more sparse by the afternoon today. Highs today are expected to be in the middle to upper 70s which is 2 to 4 degrees below normal. Surface high pressure will build across the region tonight and Tuesday. Ideal lat e summer for Tuesday with daytime highs near 80 degrees and dewpoints in the 50s. Warm front will lift across Lower Michigan Tuesday night and early Wednesday as broad troughing settles into the upper Midwest. Models have been very consistent in showing nothing more than a very weak upper level jet streak. Big picture perspective suggests that precipitation chances will rely heavily on when direct differential cyclonic vorticity arrives. This suggests sometime late in the Wednesday period particularly for areas south of I 69. This looks good as residual stability and dry air from strong subsidence the day before will be place Wednesday afternoon. The current forecast calls for dry or a slight chance in Detroit prior to 00z Thursday. Models then suggest a good amount of wave dampening which results in nothing more than a spoke of absolute vorticity early Thursday, unorganized embedded wave energy late Thursday and early Friday. Good confidence slightly more humid weather Thursday with dewpoints then dropping behind a cold front Friday. Lower confidence exists regarding the forecast next weekend. There is some global deterministic differences on when the next Pacific jet packet will push into the Great Lakes region. GFS suggests as early as Saturday while the ECMWF waits until Sunday. Temperatures look to be in the 80s next weekend. && .MARINE... Post-frontal breezy northwest flow will persist as cooler air is ushered into the Great Lakes. Maintenance of wind gusts on the order of 20 to 30 knots is expected, along with some isolated gust potential to 35 knots across central Lake Huron. This higher end gust potential remains most favorable for the morning and early afternoon hours. Small Craft Advisories across the Saginaw Bay and into Port Huron have been extended through this evening. Lingering rain showers and a very low chance for a waterspout also continues across Lake Huron, tapering off by the afternoon. High pressure will then begin building into the Great Lakes late this evening and will center over the region by tomorrow. Wind speeds start to diminish tonight as a result, leading to lighter winds tomorrow. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1216 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 AVIATION... Colder northwest flow is expected to support few/sct low/mid clouds through the early morning hours, but should remain predominately VFR ceilings with scattered showers expected to hold to the east of the terminal corridor. WNW winds hold around 5 knots beforeincreasing late morning with gusts to around 25 knots and gradually decreasing towards the mid-late afternoon. Afternoon cumulus field will be spread across the terminals late morning into the afternoon and are forecast to hold aroudn 4-6kft. This evening winds will ease while holding out of the northwest along with a decreasing cloud trend. D21/DTW Convection... No thunderstorms expected through the TAF period. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Moderate for ceiling 5000 feet or today. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ049. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-441>443. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ422. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CB MARINE.......CB AVIATION.....AA You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  160 FXUS64 KMOB 240704 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 204 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 203 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected each afternoon this week, particularly across the southern half of the area. Storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. - Hot conditions continue, with heat indices topping out at around 102-107 degrees each day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A much more active weather pattern is expected this week as our local area remains underneath a northwesterly flow pattern aloft. This flow is the result of a building ridge over the Rockies and longwave troughing over the Great Lakes region. Over the coming days, several embedded shortwaves are expected to push through this flow and pass overhead, helping to provide large scale ascent to the local region. Pairing this with PWATs of around 2 inches and a highly unstable environment due to strong diurnal heating, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop each day this week, mainly during the afternoon and into the evening hours. Latest CAMs suggest that this coming afternoon/evening may be one of the more active days this week as a rather stout shortwave pushes into the local area. Although storms over our area may initially develop along the sea breeze boundary by the coast and spread via outflow boundaries, guidance is also suggesting that upstream storms, sparked by the shortwave aloft, may organize into an MCS and push southeastward throughout the day. Although a bit uncertain as to how much of the local area will be impacted by this MCS, confidence is higher for locations west of the Tombigbee River at this time. Although any storm that develops today will be capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall, the greatest threat for strong to severe weather will come with this MCS. Right now guidance has this MCS entering our Mississippi counties by as early as 2PM and pushing off the Alabama coast by or before 8PM. Damaging winds will be the greatest hazard from this complex. Heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flooding is also a concern. Latest HREF 24hr LPMMs suggest 3-5 inches of rain over portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama, along with localized maximums of around 5-7 inches. If storms can train over the same areas for a long period of time, then these values may become realized. Rain chances quickly diminish this evening in the wake of the MCS. As stated before, daily chances for scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected throughout the remainder of the week. Highest coverage looks to be over our coastal counties thanks to development along the sea breeze boundary. Each day comes with the risk of gusty to locally damaging downburst winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flooding concerns. Some guidance suggests that another MCS may travel within the northwesterly flow and impact portions of the local area midweek. If this were to happen, then similar to today, damaging winds would be the primary impact. We will monitor trends closely over the coming days. With the increase in rain chances, high temperatures are expected to trend back to seasonal norms. Highs in the low to mid 90s today should decrease to the upper 80s to low 90s by midweek. Heat indices throughout the period should generally remain just below Heat Advisory criteria (around 102-107), although a few localized spots of 108-110 degrees cannot be ruled out along the coast. Lows will range from the low 70s inland to the upper 70s along the coast. A Low Risk of rip currents remains in place through the week. /96 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through The morning hours. Scattered to numerous showers and storms should start to develop across the area by the late morning/early afternoon hours. Expect brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 203 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 94 73 91 72 / 80 30 50 20 Pensacola 93 75 90 75 / 60 30 50 20 Destin 90 76 89 76 / 30 30 50 40 Evergreen 96 70 93 70 / 60 20 50 10 Waynesboro 94 72 93 70 / 70 20 30 10 Camden 94 71 93 71 / 40 10 20 10 Crestview 95 70 92 70 / 70 30 60 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  152 FXUS65 KBYZ 240704 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 104 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier with seasonal temps through midweek. Warmer after midweek with an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Through Sunday... Upper level troughing will continue to move to the east today and Tuesday. The surface low pressure system associated with this trough will slowly move across the Canadian Prairies advecting in high pressure behind it today and Tuesday. This will bring slightly cooler temperatures in the 80s F and dry conditions. Starting Wednesday, upper level ridging builds in behind the departing trough shifting high pressure to the east. This pattern is expected to last through Friday bringing high temperatures in the high 80s to low 90s F and periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms. Thursday is expected to bring the best chance for severe thunderstorms as southeast winds advect Gulf moisture into Montana. It is too early to have specific details about the coverage and potential hazards of these storms. Ensemble systems are indicating that the earliest the upper level ridging pattern could be broken is next weekend. While ridging will be dominant over Montana during the middle to late week period, persistent troughing will impact the Pacific Coast. Starting next weekend, models are indicating this trough may begin to move inland displacing the ridge. This is highly uncertain at this time but it brings the potential for cooler temperatures by next Sunday. Torgerson .AVIATION... Wildfire smoke is expected to move into Southeast Montana this morning. Reductions to slant range visibility are possible. Smoke impacts are largely expected west of Rosebud County. Reductions in flight category due to surface visibility reductions are unlikely. Locations from northern Rosebud County and areas near the Dakotas border will experience 20-30 kt wind gusts this afternoon. Torgerson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 087 059/084 059/090 062/093 062/090 062/089 060/083 0/K 00/B 00/U 11/B 51/B 21/B 21/U LVM 086 048/084 049/089 051/089 050/088 050/085 047/080 0/K 01/U 11/U 43/T 52/T 22/W 32/W HDN 088 054/086 055/092 060/095 059/092 059/091 056/085 0/U 00/B 00/U 00/B 31/B 21/B 21/U MLS 086 058/084 054/087 060/093 064/092 062/090 059/084 0/U 00/B 00/U 01/B 21/B 21/B 31/U 4BQ 087 058/084 055/088 060/092 063/092 062/090 060/086 0/U 10/B 00/U 01/B 20/B 21/B 21/U BHK 087 052/083 048/086 052/091 058/092 057/090 055/086 0/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 41/B 22/T 32/W SHR 086 054/083 051/087 054/091 056/089 056/088 053/084 0/B 02/T 01/B 11/B 11/B 12/W 22/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings  330 FXUS62 KFFC 240707 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 307 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry for North Georgia and low chances for thunderstorms across parts of south-Central Georgia through Tuesday. - Coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected to increase by mid-to-late week as a front approaches. - Seasonal temperatures are largely expected through the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Limited rain chances and fairly comfortable temperatures can be expected for North and Central Georgia through Tuesday. The axis of a deep upper trough continues to dig southeastward towards the Atlantic Coastline and has led to the return of NW upper flow across the area. At the surface, a frontal boundary is draped across south- central Georgia and is expected to slowly sag southward into North Florida. Thus, any rain and thunderstorm chances will be limited and confined to areas south of the frontal boundary -- south of a line from Columbus to Swainsboro. These chances will be even less on Tuesday as the front pushes into North Florida. Most locations are expected to remain dry through Tuesday with some passing mid to high level clouds each day. Daytime temperatures in the 90s (80s in the mountains) combined with relative humidity in the 30-40% range each day will make it feel quite pleasant outside. Be sure to enjoy it while you can! && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 After a drier and more pleasant early week, moisture will be increasing ahead of an approaching cold front by midweek. Dewpoints will surge back toward the 70s by Wednesday into Thursday. PoPs will initially begin to increase by late Wednesday as a shortwave disturbance initiates thunderstorm development to our west/northwest that could approach the area by Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. The most substantial increase in PoPs will be by Thursday, however, as the aforementioned front pushes into the area, lingering into late week. With PWATs surging back over 2" in advance of the front, locally heavy rainfall could be a concern during this time. As far as temperatures are concerned, 60s will remain abundant for morning lows for much of north Georgia through the bulk of the period. Highs will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s, within a few degrees of seasonal normals for the most part. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 119 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR expected at all sites through the period. High cirrus overnight with FEW to SCT Cu 5-7kft by Monday afternoon. Light vrb wind tonight increasing to NW-NNW up to 8kts by 17z Monday. Iso shra/tsra should stay south of CSG/MCN Monday afternoon and no impacts are expected. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... High confidence on all elements. 07 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 92 66 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 92 69 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 84 61 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 91 64 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 94 72 94 72 / 10 0 10 10 Gainesville 90 65 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 94 70 94 71 / 0 0 10 10 Rome 91 64 92 66 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 92 67 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 95 72 94 72 / 30 10 40 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...07  356 FXUS63 KICT 240708 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 208 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms possible overnight into this morning, along with locally heavy rain. - Another chance of thunderstorms late Tuesday through Tuesday night. - Periodic low chances for thunderstorms Wednesday night, and then again Friday night through at least Sunday night. - Near to slightly above average temperatures the next several days, turning solidly above average by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 207 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES: EARLY THIS MORNING...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the predawn hours and persist into this morning, mainly along/east of I-135, within a zone of strengthening 850-700mb warm/moist advection. Adequate elevated instability amidst decent directional effective shear may support a handful of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms capable of dime-quarter size hail. The potential for higher-end severe hail will likely be hampered by higher cloud bases limiting buoyancy and effective shear. Additionally, the potential for numerous/training storms may support locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding concerns. All activity will likely exit to the southeast by midday. LATE TUESDAY--TUESDAY NIGHT...A weak cold front approaching from the northwest should support increasing chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. A seasonable buoyancy/shear combination along with decent downdraft CAPE may support a few strong to severe thunderstorms, especially along/northwest of the KS Turnpike. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Additional shortwave energy dropping south across the Upper Mississippi Valley may support low thunderstorm chances getting into central KS Wednesday night, but thinking most of this activity should remain west-northwest of the forecast area. FRIDAY NIGHT--SUNDAY NIGHT...The upper ridge should finally start shifting east from the southwest to the south-central CONUS toward the weekend, as shortwave energy tracks across the northern CONUS and southern Canada. This should allow a cold front to slowly approach from the north, with low thunderstorms chances over mainly the northern half of KS this weekend. TEMPERATURES: With northwest flow aloft persisting across the region, near to slightly above average temperatures are expected through late week, with forecast highs mostly in the upper 80s through mid-90s, warmest over southern Kansas. As we head toward late this week and the weekend, the stout upper ridge should shift east from the southwest CONUS to the south-central CONUS, supporting a warming trend over the weekend into at least early next week. Could be looking at another round of widespread 100s, although at least dewpoints should be lower and south-southwest winds on the breezy side. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end of the period. East/southeast winds are forecast to persist over the next 24 hours with speeds generally around/below 10 kts. We continue to see the potential for elevated showers and storms early this morning, particularly along/east of the Flint Hills. While a few showers can't be ruled out at ICT, confidence was too low for a mention at this time. Confidence in timing of impacts at CNU remains high, with minimal adjustments to the -TSRA mention from the 00Z cycle. Rain chances should depart southeast KS by mid morning. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...JWK  779 FXUS63 KGRR 240711 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 311 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of Fog Tuesday Morning - Thunderstorms Possible Wednesday, Less Likely Thursday - Active Pattern Could Develop By This Weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Areas of Fog Tuesday Morning With a surface high building into the region later today into tonight, winds will gradually tail off after dark and likely go calm for many areas. GFS MOS guidance along with NAM soundings do support areas of fog developing after 06z Tuesday as dew point depressions approach or reach zero in some spots and an inversion above the surface develops. Scattered clouds could be present, however, so a widespread fog event does not appear likely. Still, there is enough of a signal to put areas of fog in the forecast. Fog may develop especially in low lying areas, which could have some localized impacts to the Tuesday morning commute. - Thunderstorms Possible Wednesday, Less Likely Thursday Midweek rain chances remain on track as upper troughing is set to move through the Great Lakes during peak heating on Wednesday. Low level moisture advection ahead of this trough is shown by model guidance, with surface dew points starting the day (12z) in the upper 50s, then climbing to the mid to perhaps upper 60s by late afternoon. SBCAPE values shown by the RRFS are forecast to reach 1500 J/kg. Some model guidance supports up to 2000 J/kg, though this would likely be the higher end of what materializes. While deep layer shear looks to be about 25 kts, thus leading to quasi-organized convection, one supporting factor to some locally stronger storms is RRFS modeled DCAPE values of 800-1000 J/kg. We're expecting at least some scattered showers/storms to develop primarily after 18z and lasting to about 06z. Better coverage may get going after 21z. A scattered damaging wind gust is not out of the question Wednesday afternoon and evening, so will monitor trends. The GEM and ECMWF support a slight chance for a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms Thursday mainly east of US 131 as residual surface based instability could remain underneath upper troughing. The GFS dries out the low levels quicker and would largely end the threat. The NBM POPs are quite low on Thursday, so rain is not a high threat at this point. - Active Pattern Could Develop By This Weekend Both ensemble and deterministic model guidance is signaling a potential shift in the synoptic pattern by this weekend into early next week. In fact, both the 00z ECE and CMC ensemble mean 500 mb heights are in the upper 580s dm across Lower MI by Sunday. This could potentially place the Great Lakes in stronger mid level flow with mid level jet cores moving overhead. The positioning of the upper ridge will be key to the location of convective activity. At this point we may be in an active corridor or close to it. PWAT values of 1.50"-2.00"+ are supported by ensemble guidance. So, these are some interesting trends to keep watching. We may round out the month of August and enter September with some periods of storminess, especially Sunday and beyond. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1252 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions for this TAF period with some few/sct cumulus developing after about 14z. Winds will be less gusty today compared to Sunday, but still holding fairly steady from the WNW. Just beyond this TAF period, we may see some fog development into Tuesday morning. Will take a closer look for the 12z TAF issuance. && .MARINE... Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Waves should generally stay in the 2 to 4 foot range today as NW flow will be a bit weaker than Sunday, and also decreasing later in the day. Winds and waves should by and large stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria, though some 3 to 5 footers can't be ruled out early afternoon mainly south of Pentwater. A moderate swim risk will be in place given these waves. Will keep an eye on buoy trends today to see if waves overperform, and if so a Beach Hazards Statement and Small Craft Advisory may be needed for some areas. At this point we will hold off on any headlines. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hoving AVIATION...Hoving MARINE...Hoving  794 FXUS63 KLMK 240711 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 311 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry and pleasant conditions are expected to continue through Wednesday morning. * Warmer temperatures (upper 80s) and chances for showers and storms return Wednesday and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 311 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Calm winds and clear skies has allowed for river valley fog to develop this morning. As the sun rises, fog will begin to burn off. High pressure at the surface and northwesterly flow aloft will continue to be the main features over the region through Wednesday morning. Looking to see lows in the upper 50s and low 60s and highs in the low to mid 80s. These below normal temperatures, coupled with dew points in the 50s, will keep conditions quite comfortable to start the week. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 311 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Moving into Wednesday, ridging over the western CONUS will broaden and approach the mid-Mississippi Valley region. This will increase temperatures back to near normal in the upper 80s. At the surface, high pressure will push off to the east and a warm front will move into the lower Ohio Valley. This front will bring increased moisture and lift to broad upper troughing. Looking to see isolated to scattered chances for showers and storms on Wednesday over southern and central Kentucky. Forecast soundings show PWATs around 1.7-1.8 inches, weak shear, and ample instability Wednesday afternoon. Though, mid-level lapse rates look poor. Given this environment, we could see a strong pulse storm or two, but severe weather is not expected at this time. On Thursday, a shortwave will swing through the Great Lakes region and bring a weak cold front through the Ohio Valley. Current timing of the front is Thursday into Friday. Given the antecedent environment, would expected to see scattered showers and storms along and ahead of the cold front. Behind the cold front, we will see drier air move into the region. Though, temperatures look to remain in the upper 80s for Friday. Moving into the weekend, ridging looks to broaden over the southern CONUS, which will lead to increased heights over the lower Ohio Valley and increased temperatures into the low 90s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 130 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions are expected to continue through this TAF cycle. Calm to light winds will continue through the early morning hours. FEW- SCT cloud around 5kft continue to stream over the region this morning. Some light fog will be possible over the region, though not expecting any issues at the TAF sites this morning. By mid morning, winds will pick up out of the northwest around 6kts. A thin Cu field around 5kft will be possible in the afternoon. In the evening, skies will clear and winds will become light. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRW LONG TERM...SRW AVIATION...SRW  811 FXUS63 KLOT 240712 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 212 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The next chance of showers and thunderstorms is with a cold front moving across the area midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 212 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 High pressure continues to settle into the mid-Mississippi Valley and will remain in place through Tuesday. As a result, dry conditions with generally comfortable humidity are expected to start off the work week. Temperatures today will once again be on the seasonably cool side with highs only topping out in the upper 70s to around 80 this afternoon. A lake breeze is expected to develop and move inland this afternoon and evening which will result in cooling temperatures along the lakeshore, though with lake temperatures in the lower 70s the temperature drop shouldn't be overly impressive. Overnight lows tonight won't be as chilly as they will be this morning, but will dip into the mid-50s inland with upper 50s near the lake. As winds turn more south-southwesterly on Tuesday, warmer air should begin to advect into the area and result with more seasonable highs in the lower 80s. Rain chances are still forecast to increase as we head into the middle of the week as the shortwave trough over the Mountain West pivots into the Great Lakes. A cold front is expected to accompany the shortwave as it moves through the region which should serve as the impetus for showers and thunderstorms. Similar to last night, guidance continues to show some showers/storms developing along the front in the Upper Midwest on Tuesday and drifting towards northern IL Tuesday night. Though, with moisture return continuing to look more limited locally and the unfavorable diurnal time, these showers/storms should be in a decaying state as they approach IL (if they make it at) so the greatest coverage of any rain Tuesday night should be near the IL-WI line. The front is expected to continue moving across northern IL and northwest IN on Wednesday which should allow for the redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening as diurnal destabilization occurs. Despite the decent MLCAPE values noted in forecast soundings, shower and storm coverage continues to look spotty likely due to weaker frontal convergence and the core of the shortwave currently forecast to be centered over MI. So while this may mean some areas get little rain, our official forecast will continue to advertise broad 30 to locally 50% chances for showers and storms on Wednesday. Regardless of storm coverage, deep layer shear values of 25-35 kts are still expected in the area which may support a few storms becoming strong to locally severe Wednesday afternoon and evening. With confidence on storm coverage being low, our area has not been added to any severe outlooks at this time, but we will continue to keep an eye on this potential. The cold front should exit the area late Wednesday night into Thursday morning which looks to allow another surface high to build into the area. However, with some subtle frontal timing differences noted in ensemble guidance the exact time the front exits remains uncertain. Nevertheless, the building high pressure behind the front will result in a period of dry weather to close out the work week with otherwise seasonable temperatures expected. The signal remains for a shift towards a more active upper-level pattern as we head towards the beginning of next week which looks to mean more shower and thunderstorm chances so enjoy the nice weather while we have it. Yack && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1248 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Key aviation forecast messages: - Lake breeze may turn winds east this afternoon at ORD/MDW Winds will remain light and variable through daybreak, potentially leaning more consistently westerly at the Chicago terminals due to a weak land breeze. Winds then settle into a prevailing NW to NNW after daybreak around 5-10 kt. A lake breeze is forecast to drift inland during the afternoon. While confidence in the timing that it reaches ORD/MDW remains on the lower side, did move up the wind shift by an hour at MDW to 20Z based on hi-res guidance trending a bit earlier there (maintained 22Z at ORD for now). VFR conditions are forecast through the period with varying coverage of diurnal cumulus around 5000 ft and occasional higher clouds. Can't fully rule out shallow fog (MIFG) developing outside of Chicago early this morning but the potential is too low to include a formal TAF mention. Petr && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  925 FXUS65 KTFX 240714 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 114 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler, drier, and less windy conditions move in for the next couple of days, but there will be lingering gusty winds in the Milk River Valley area today. - Temperatures warm back above average and shower and thunderstorm activity increases in coverage by mid-week. - A Pacific weather system looks to bring more shower and thunderstorm activity, cooler temperatures, and gusty westerly winds this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: The closed low responsible for yesterdays wind, thunderstorms, and elevated fire weather conditions is now moving eastward into the Canadian Prairies. Cooler, drier, and less windy conditions will be left in its wake, but there will be some lingering gusty northwesterly winds over plains east of I15. These winds will be most impactful over the Milk River Valley where winds will routinely gust in the 20 to 30 mph range. Although mostly dry conditions will prevail today, subtle shortwave energy and lingering instability may bring isolated shower and thunderstorm activity to areas along the MT/ID/WY borders in far southwest MT today. There may also be some passing low and mid- level clouds along the Hi-Line on the backside of the aforementioned closed low. Ridging aloft begins to build in over the interior west for the mid- week period, but another trough approaching the Pacific NW will gradually bring an increasingly southwesterly flow aloft over the Northern Rockies. This will warm temperatures back above average and bring a slow northward expansion of scattered shower and thunderstorm activity as the week progresses. The Pacific NW trough looks to send stronger shortwaves into an environment with ML CAPE running in the 300 to 900 J/kg range and Wednesday and Thursday. These should be the busiest convective days if this set up occurs. Dry sub-cloud layers will make localized gusty winds and lightning the primary concerns with this activity. The trough eventually ejects eastward towards the Northern Rockies sometime this weekend into early next week. While there are some timing and depth discrepancies among ensemble members, the most likely scenario looks to be more scattered more shower and thunderstorm activity, cooler temperatures, and periods of gusty westerly winds. -RCG && .AVIATION... 24/06Z TAF Period Wildfire smoke from the Camp Creek Fire will impact portions of North Central and Central Montana through the overnight hours. For most locations this will only impact slantwise visibility but surface-level visibility impacts are possible at KGTF and KLWT. Once northerly winds start to pick up after sunrise the plume of smoke is expected to be pushed further south which will help clear out KGTF/KLWT but may bring some slantwise visibility reductions towards KHLN. Breezy winds are expected again on Monday afternoon across the northern plains. Overnight there is a slight chance for fog developing around KWYS but confidence was not high enough to include it in the TAF. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of Southwest Montana late Monday into early Tuesday but confidence in any impacts to the terminals is low. Mountain obscuration will remain a concern where wildfire smoke is present and around any potential thunderstorm activity. For KGTF: Calm winds will continue through the night with periods of MVFR conditions expected through 24/17Z when the latest smoke models start pushing smoke away from KGTF as more northwesterly winds start to set up. Crosswinds are expected through the afternoon but the risk of seeing crosswinds over 15kts is currently at 20%. While slantwisevisibility is expected to improve somewhat after 24/17Z, there is a possibility that smoke aloft may start to return later in the day depending on how the Camp Creek Fire behaves. Greater impacts to slantwise visibility may start to return after 24/22Z and last through the remainder of the evening. -thor && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 80 52 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 76 48 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 83 53 85 56 / 0 10 10 10 BZN 82 49 84 50 / 0 10 20 10 WYS 79 40 78 40 / 0 20 30 30 DLN 84 49 84 49 / 0 20 20 20 HVR 82 51 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 78 48 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  043 FXUS61 KCLE 240716 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 316 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No impactful changes were made with this morning's forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Nicer and drier weather will arrive today for most of the area. Scattered lake effect rain showers with isolated thunder possible will continue to impact far NEOH and NWPA today through tonight. 3) A weak cold front will move across the Great Lakes region late Wednesday night into Thursday with the next chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered lake effect rain showers and isolated thunder will continue to impact the "Snowbelt" area of far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania today through tonight. A deep upper level trough has developed over the eastern half of the Great Lakes this morning and will slowly move eastward by tomorrow. The backside of this trough will continue to bring a cooler northerly flow over the eastern Great Lakes today and tonight before it finally pulls away Tuesday. Therefore, scattered lake effect rain showers will continue over NEOH and NWPA through early Tuesday morning. Rain chances or POPS will be likely today and gradually decrease overnight into early Tuesday morning. For the rest of northern and central Ohio, nicer weather will return today with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and drier weather. High pressure will build across the Ohio Valley today and continue to bring very nice weather through Wednesday. High temperatures will be cooler today with upper 60s in far NEOH and NWPA where there will be more clouds and showers from lake effect. North central and Northwest Ohio will have more sunshine with passing scattered clouds and high temps in the lower to middle 70s. It will also feel less humid with the drier airmass moving. High temps will slowly climb over the next few days reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday areawide. Overnight low temps will be in the 50s away from the immediate lakeshore. KEY MESSAGE 2.. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Wednesday night through Thursday evening with a weak, slow moving cold front across the Great Lakes region. The latest model guidance has trended slightly downward on POPs and QPF. At this time, it appears there will be scattered showers and some thunder possible with the greater POPs around 40 to 50 percent during day Thursday. Severe weather is not expected at this as the thermodynamics looks fairly weak. High pressure will build back into the region on Friday with warm and nice day. High temperatures will climb through next weekend with lower to middle 80s across the area. && .AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Main potential impacts this TAF period are lake effect clouds and rain showers across parts of Northeast OH and Northwest PA, and slightly elevated west-northwest winds increasing to 10-15kt with some 20-25kt gusts late this morning and this afternoon. Main impacts from the lake effect will be at ERI, where occasional and mainly short-lived vsby restrictions are possible with any showers that impact the field. Shower activity may focus a bit south and east for the most part. Some showers may impact CLE, primarily early this morning, though for the most part CLE will be dry. A broken cloud deck below 5000 feet will likely develop across Northeast OH and Northwest PA for several hours this afternoon before scattering out or lifting this evening. Western terminals should remain VFR throughout. Outlook...Non-VFR possible at times in lake effect rain and/or low ceilings in far NE OH and NW PA into Tuesday. Non-VFR may return in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday. && .MARINE... Rough marineconditions will continue across much of Lake Erie through Monday with elevated west to northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots resulting in waves of 3 to 6 feet. Marine conditions will gradually improve Monday night into Tuesday as winds subside to 10 knots or less. Winds will shift towards the south to southwest on Wednesday, increasing into the 10 to 15 knot range by Thursday. A few stronger wind gusts in excess of 34 knots are likely across the central and eastern basin of Lake Erie through this evening, associated with showers and thunderstorms. There is also a risk for waterspouts into Tuesday morning. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for OHZ009-010. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for OHZ011-012- 089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ144- 145. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LEZ146>149. && $$ DISCUSSION...77 AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...Kahn  101 FXUS62 KCHS 240718 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 318 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Key Message 1 was updated. The Aviation section was updated for the 00z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday. - 2)Increasing rain chances mid to late week with the potential for locally heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday. The overall pattern for today will be rather similar to yesterday, except that a rather subtle shortwave is expected to eject over the area during the mid to late afternoon. This subtle shortwave should result in slightly increased moisture across our area as PWATS climb to around 1.9 to possibly 2 inches along the coast. This coupled with very subtle ascent across the area and overall convective coverage should be a little more scattered than it was today. Given the better coverage and slightly better moisture, storms should be able to sustain themselves a little better leading to more clusters of storms developing along the seabreeze. However, the best ascent appears to miss just to the north of the area across eastern North Carolina into northeastern South Carolina. With this progression expect storms to likely start north of the area during the mid-afternoon with most of the area remaining dry through at least 4 pm. As the seabreeze moves slowly inland and boundaries from the north slowly move southward, we likely see the seabreeze begin to zipper from Charleston southward towards Savannah by the early evening. MLCAPE values look to range in the 3000-3500 range resulting in likely potent updrafts. With slightly less dry air, storms should be able to survive this environment unlike today when any attempt of a storm just fizzled as dry air entrained into the storm drying it out. With the upper shortwave in the area, some weak shear will be present in the 20 to 25 knots range which could support more multicellular clusters that would increase the potential for damaging winds across the area. With PWATS approaching 1.9 inches and DCAPE values in the 1200 to 1500 J/KG range, any storms that do develop will pose the threat of damaging winds. As a result, the entire area is under a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe storms. Tuesday looks fairly similar to today, except that our moisture looks to be even more substantial with PWATs increasing in the 2 inch range as yet another wave moves into the area. Coverage looks to be slightly better on Tuesday; however, with the deeper moisture the overall signal for damaging winds might be a little lower. However, if storms are able to cluster up with time a few strong to severe wind gusts could be possible given PWATS approaching 2 to 2.1 inches allowing for heavy precipitation loading in storms. The more water in the middle of the cloud the more weight comes crashing down and the more weight the stronger the winds could be despite DCAPE values only in the 700 to 1000 J/KG range. KEY MESSAGE 2: Increasing rain chances mid to late week with the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Broad mid level troughing will reside over the eastern U.S. mid to late week, with a series of embedded shortwaves progged to pass through the region. At the surface, a weak boundary will drift into the region and likely stall in the vicinity. Deeper moisture will return with ensemble means indicating PWats reaching near 2 inches by late week. Given this and some larger scale forcing in play, in addition to mesoscale boundaries such as the sea breeze, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorm are expected to develop each day. The threat for organized severe weather looks low, but a stronger storm or two cannotbe ruled out. In addition, with slower storm motions, pockets of heavy rainfall will be possible which could lead to localized flooding concerns. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 24/06z TAFs:VFR will prevail through much of the forecast. Risk for tstms will increase during the mid-late afternoon hours starting near CHS and then working southward towards SAV by the early evening. VCTS and PROB30s were introduced for KCHS and KSAV. Winds will remain light out of the southwest throughout the period becoming light and variable overnight. Extended Aviation Outlook: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon potentially bringing temporary restrictions at the terminals. && .MARINE... Today through Saturday: South to southwest winds will persist through the period. Conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels, with winds averaging 15 knots or less and seas 2 to 3 feet. Any showers or thunderstorms that move over the waters have the potential to bring higher wind gusts and frequent lightning. && Record High Minimum Temperatures: August 24: KCHS: 76/2010 KCXM: 80/1975 August 25: KCHS: 77/1982 August 28: KCHS: 77/2020 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Black/ETM  104 FXUS63 KPAH 240719 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 219 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The week will begin on a dry note with clear to partly cloudy skies, as high pressure continues to remain overhead. - The next chances for showers and thunderstorms across the entire region is forecast Wednesday into Wednesday night. - Temperatures will continue to climb through the week eventually reaching the low 90s by this weekend as southerly winds return, along with increasing humidity levels beginning Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 216 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 The region continues to sit between the upper level ridge over the southwest CONUS and the trough over the NE CONUS with surface high pressure overhead. Recent model guidance has shifted the upper level ridge west, and as a result, shifted the shortwaves and small chance for showers expected today and Tuesday west of SEMO. Therefore, dry conditions are forecast with clear to partly cloudy skies across the region Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s. Wednesday into Thursday morning, small chances (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms exist across the entire region as another trough and associated cold front is expected to move through. However, forecast confidence in these showers are low due to the lack of agreement across mid and long range models. Beginning Wednesday with this system, higher dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s will return resulting in higher humidity. High temperatures will continue climb as the week progresses. Current guidance suggests that by the weekend we could see highs back into the low 90s, as southerly winds return. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Looking at crossover temperature potential, MVN looks to have the greatest chance of reaching their crossover temp tonight and seeing fog formation (and based on how they saw fog last night). PAH may see some patchy fog as well but possibly not as great of a drop in vsby as MVN. High clouds streaming over the southwest portions of the area will likely inhibit fog formation at CGI tonight. EVV and OWB mixed fairly deep today and their crossover temps are more out of reach even with clear skies and calm winds. High clouds resume tomorrow across the area with light winds shifting to the northeast by sunset. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AZ AVIATION...HICKFORD  125 FXUS66 KEKA 240719 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1219 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warm interior temperatures are likely again today with a return to seasonable weather for the rest of the week. * Elevated fire weather conditions for the interior this afternoon. && .SYNOPSIS...Dry weather continues for the next week. Warm interior temperatures continue today but return closer to normal for the rest of the week. Coastal stratus will become more persistent this week with only partial clearing likely in the afternoons. && .DISCUSSION...An upper low off approaches the northern California coast today. This troughing pattern has started to funnel moisture into the area off of the coast of Central California Sunday evening. Instability is limited with this moisture surge, but a few high clouds and virga showers are possible for southern Mendocino and southern Lake Counties this morning. Otherwise, dry and warm weather is likely across the area today. Interior temperatures are forecast to be slightly above average with most valleys seeing 90s and the warmest areas nearing 100. Increased vertical mixing from this troughing pattern will support breezier southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph in the interior. This will elevate fire weather concerns this afternoon. See the fire weather section below for more details. The coastal areas are likely to remain in the low to mid 60s. The troughing pattern supports a deep marine layer which, along with light winds near the coast, may keep stratus persistent at the immediate coast through at least Wednesday. The troughing pattern remains in place for the next week. Today will be the last warm day before temperatures return to near normal with high 80s to low 90s for most interior areas. Moisture and instability is limited with this troughing pattern which will limit any thunderstorm potential. Generally mild, seasonable weather is likely for the remainder of the week. /JB && .AVIATION...(6Z TAFs)...Stratus is likely to return early this morning to the coastal terminals. A shallow marine layer is expected to bring LIFR to IFR ceilings with visibility reductions, especially around sunrise. Stratus is likely to lift and scatter by the afternoon, though stratus may only retreat to the immediate coast. Brief IFR to LIFR impacts are possible through the afternoon at both terminals. Interior areas are likely to remain VFR for the next 24 hours. /JB && .MARINE...Northerly winds and steep seas subside today with mild conditions expected by this evening across all waters. Generally mild conditions are expected through Wednesday. Locally breezy southerly winds of up to 20 kts are possible off the Humboldt and Del Norte coasts early this morning. Seas will be dominated by decaying northerly wind waves and a small long period southerly swell. /JB && .FIRE WEATHER...Warm weather today along with a shallow marine layer will combine with breezy southerly winds and low relative humidities in the teens and 20s in this afternoon. Winds will be highest in the Trinity Alps where overnight relative humidity recoveries this morning will be poor. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions is expected this afternoon. A deep marine layer returns Tuesday and for much of the week which will raise relative humidity slightly and bring cooler temperatures. Breezy afternoon winds will continue, but the fire weather risk will lower with the higher relative humidity. /JB && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for PZZ450- 455. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for PZZ470- 475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png  206 FXUS62 KTBW 240723 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 323 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid conditions will continue. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf during the late night and early morning hours will move onshore each morning and then shift inland during the afternoon hours through Tuesday. - Light southerly flow sets up during midweek with a more typical summertime pattern of scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Southwesterly flow continues today and tomorrow as a high pressure ridge stays parked over south Florida. This will favor late night/ early morning showers and storms developing over the Gulf and moving onshore. Showers and storms will push further inland by the afternoon. Though dry air aloft today may limit rain coverage, keeping showers more isolated or scattered. By midweek, the ridge will shift further north, bringing lighter southerly flow. Rain chances will once again increase as deep moisture returns, leading to more scattered and widespread showers and storms. Heading into the weekend, the ridge moves north of the area and the pattern becomes a more typical summertime pattern with easterly flow favoring afternoon showers and thunderstorms along sea breeze boundaries. Temperatures through the week will remain in the low to mid 90s. Triple digit heat indices will be possible each afternoon, but should remain below heat advisory criteria. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the period. Southwesterly flow will favor showers and storms moving onshore in the morning before pushing inland in the afternoon. Though, dry air could limit convection today keeping confidence low on impacts to terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Marine conditions remain quiet over the next few days with southwesterly flow less than 15 kts. The one concern each day will be showers and storms that develop over the waters, likely overnight and early morning hours. Elevated winds and seas as well as frequent lightning are possible in any storm. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 No major fire weather concerns through the period as RH values remain above critical levels and winds remain less than 15 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 79 90 77 / 40 10 20 10 FMY 94 77 95 77 / 20 10 20 20 GIF 94 75 94 75 / 30 10 40 10 SRQ 91 78 92 76 / 30 10 10 10 BKV 92 73 91 72 / 40 20 40 10 SPG 89 79 90 79 / 30 10 20 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming  184 FXUS65 KVEF 240721 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1221 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Hotter than normal temperatures will continue through the week. * Best chance of storms along and south of I-15 today, with diminishing odds afterwards. && .DISCUSSION... A slight cooldown is anticipated today and Tuesday thanks to a subtle uptick in moisture and fall in 500mb heights. Highs during this time are forecast to be 1-5 degrees cooler than yesterday (largest cooldown across the southeastern half of the CWA), but still above normal for late August. From Wednesday through Friday, ensemble guidance suggests an uptick in 500mb heights and southwesterly flow, the latter yielding a gradual reduction of moisture. The net effect of these changes is warming at the surface, with highs returning to values 3-8 degrees above normal. Combined with oppressive overnight lows, major to extreme heatrisk resumes across most of the Mojave Desert. Over the weekend (and into early next week), ensembles depict a broader trough approaching the western US, leading to cooler temperatures and increased breezes. Overnight radar and satellite imagery shows a complex of storms in southern AZ pushing our way. Convection should wane before it reaches our area, but the southerly outflow will advect in additional moisture through the early morning hours. Latest HREF shows the 1" PWAT contour extending up to the I-15 corridor this afternoon, which should allow isolated to scattered storms in this area. Main concerns will be gusty outflow winds and dry lightning, but cannot rule out isolated instances of flash flooding. Moisture should then gradually decrease throughout the week, leading to more isolated and weaker activity. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light southwesterly winds are expected overnight with speeds remaining below 10 knots. For tomorrow, winds will favor a southeasterly direction under 10 knots in the late morning, shifting to the southwest in the afternoon with gusts over 20 knots possible. Gusty outflow winds from area thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon, particularly from the southeast. Any shower development will end prior to sunset. Temperatures exceed 100 degrees until 04Z this evening, then increase to above 100 degrees by 18Z tomorrow. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Breezy west winds will continue early this evening near KDAG with otherwise light winds elsewhere. A push of southeast winds may arrive early in the morning between 10-12z near KEED and KIFP, with some gusts to near 20 knots and patchy blowing dust. Isolated thunderstorms will be develop during the afternoon, primarily south and east of Interstate 15. Confidence is low in storms reaching any particular terminal - but gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Woods AVIATION...Outler For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  336 FXUS64 KFWD 240727 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 227 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Very hot temperatures between 102 to 112 will continue through Tuesday. The Extreme Heat Warning for all of North and Central Texas is in effect through this evening, and will likely be needed on Tuesday as well. - A drop in temperatures down into the upper 90s to mid 100s is expected from Wednesday into next weekend as low rain chances return areawide each day. However, most locations will remain hot and dry through the weekend. - Hot temperatures, low humidity and worsening drought conditions will contribute to increased wildfire starts through the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 202 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Water vapor imagery and 00Z upper air raob analysis show a mid- level ridge centered near southern New Mexico early this morning. Westerly flow over the Rockies on the northern periphery of the ridge has led to lee cyclogenesis, resulting in a weak 1008mb surface low centered over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Lift from a shortwave propagating around the ridge will promote pressure falls over an existing weak front in western OK, migrating the surface low eastward by late morning. This will tighten the pressure gradient over North and Central TX and veer surface winds to the SSW. Given mid-level subsidence from the ridge and downslope effects from the 15-20 mph SSW winds, we expect dangerous, extreme heat across North and Central TX today. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect from 12-9pm for high temps and/or heat index values up to 111 degrees. Know the signs and symptoms of heat illness, and limit strenuous outdoor activities today! While early morning convection upstream of our area may bring mid or high clouds into the area, these unfortunately will not prevent compressional warming from the downslope flow. Additionally, the hot, breezy conditions combined with extremely dry fuels and low afternoon RH (15-20%) will elevate our fire threat today. A Grass Fire Danger Statement has been issued for areas west of I-35 this afternoon, where RH will be lowest, temperatures hottest, and skies clearest. Precip chances remain below mentionable in the short term, although silent (10%) PoPs have been added in Northeast TX due to the possibility that the shortwave will bring isolated showers and storms through that area Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 202 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 The upper ridge will begin to shift west on Tuesday, but the air mass over North and Central Texas will remain quite hot. Afternoon temperatures will again climb into the 100-109 range, with the warmest temperatures across North Texas. Heat headlines will once again be needed, however, given the lower temperatures across Central Texas, the ongoing Excessive Heat Warning may be converted to a Heat Advisory. This decision will be made later today with the afternoon forecast package. A more noticeable pattern adjustment arrives Wednesday as the ridge axis settles farther west across the Desert Southwest. This will place the Southern Plains within weak northerly flow aloft and allow temperatures to back off a few degrees. Highs from Wednesday through the weekend should generally range from the upper 90s to 105 degrees. The northerly flow pattern will also open the door for occasional weak disturbances to move south into the region. Rain chances will remain low and poorly timed, but isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible at times from midweek into the weekend. Most areas will stay dry on any given day. Where storms do develop, gusty outflow winds, lightning and brief heavy rainfall will be the main concerns. The prolonged stretch of hot and mostly dry weather will continue to aggravate drought and fire weather concerns. Afternoon humidity will remain low enough to support additional initial attack fire starts, especially in areas that miss out on any rainfall. Late in the weekend into next Monday, guidance suggests the ridge may attempt to expand east again. If this occurs, temperatures would trend upward and rain chances would decrease once more heading into the final week of August. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 202 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the period. A weak low pressure system currently located in the Texas Panhandle will migrate eastward into western Oklahoma by late morning, keeping winds sustained around 15KT with occasional gusts up to 20-25KT in response to the pressure gradient. The influence of this low will likely override any effects of thermal eddies, which had caused variable winds on Sunday afternoon. Precip chances remain very low (<10%) through this TAF period for Metroplex sites, although there is a 10% chance of showers to the northeast near the Bonham corner post early Tuesday morning (03- 12Z). No precipitation is expected at KACT. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 108 84 105 83 / 0 10 10 0 Waco 106 79 103 79 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 104 78 103 77 / 10 10 10 10 Denton 109 82 106 79 / 10 10 10 0 McKinney 106 82 104 79 / 10 10 10 0 Dallas 108 83 106 82 / 0 10 10 0 Terrell 107 79 104 78 / 0 10 10 10 Corsicana 107 78 103 79 / 0 0 10 10 Temple 106 77 103 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 110 78 107 76 / 0 0 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095- 100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fenske LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Fenske/Hernandez  685 FXUS63 KBIS 240731 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 231 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms producing torrential rainfall will continue in north central North Dakota until around sunrise Monday morning. - Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening, primarily over central and eastern North Dakota. Potential hazards include large hail up to 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds up to 70 mph. There is still some uncertainty whether any storms will develop. - Near-critical fire weather conditions expected over parts of western North Dakota on Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 At of 2 AM CDT, areas of thunderstorms were scattered throughout northern North Dakota. The remnants of a severe complex in northeast Montana did weaken as it entered northwest North Dakota, but has remained near-steady and at times has actually re-intensified to near-severe limits. This batch of stronger storms is now moving through Renville County, and is soon to join a NW-SE line of slow moving thunderstorms that extends from Bottineau to Rugby. The town of Rugby has been the epicenter for bouts of torrential rain over the past few hours, and a Flood Advisory has been issued for that area. The anticipation is that the quicker moving storms will clear out the more stagnant NW-SE line, departing the forecast area around sunrise. A separate area of weaker convection trails back to the southwest of the strongest storms. Despite modest low level warm air advection that has been properly ingested into models, these showers and storms are nowhere to be found in CAMs, so confidence in their evolution remains low. UPDATE Issued at 942 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The strong to severe thunderstorm threat has ended over the watch area, therefore canceled the remainder of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch that was in effect south and west of the Missouri River. Showers and a few thunderstorms remain mainly over parts of north central North Dakota with the most organized storm in Sheridan County. This storm currently remains sub-severe and should be entering a lower shear environment as it heads east. Therefore, it seems unlikely it would intensify to severe levels, though will continue to monitor should it latch onto something unexpected. Otherwise, there is also a line of thunderstorms in far northeastern Montana that may enter far northwestern North Dakota in a couple hours. Uncertainty remains both in regard to whether or not they will hold together, and if so, whether or not they remain strong to severe as they enter the state. UPDATE Issued at 647 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Thunderstorms, with some being severe with large hail, continue to push through southwest North Dakota over the area with the greatest instability and deep layer shear. Severe threat will continue through the mid-evening hours as storms push east, but as they move into a lower sheared and more stable environment as they approach the Missouri River, expect intensity to wane. Storms also stretch off into north central North Dakota, with the storms in that area producing some higher rainfall amounts, and also earlier produced a strong wind gust at Minot Air Force Base. Expect the wind threat has diminished, but elevated rainfall amounts remain possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Current surface analysis places trough stretching from western Saskatchewan through eastern Montana/Wyoming, with high over the midwest. Upper level analysis places high over New Mexico, with ridge stretching northward to the lee of the Rockies into the Plains. Over our area, low level moisture continues to be on the increase with south-southeasterlylow level flow between the two aforementioned surface features. A line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms continues to slide through western North Dakota affiliated with a short wave trough noted in the flow. For the rest of this afternoon into this evening, a tricky forecast is on tap as some variables remain in play. It has been well advertised that with the returning moisture we will have an unstable atmosphere in place, particularly over southwest into south central North Dakota where CAPE values are already in excess of 2000 J/Kg at this time over a broad part of the area, and that plenty of deep layer shear in in place (40-50 kts 0-6km) to support rotating updrafts. With that said, the flies in the ointment continue to be rather modest forcing, along with forecast soundings showing a cap that may be difficult to overcome. Latest short term guidance continues to show a variety of solutions ranging from some light showers/a few weak storms to a variety of severe over the southwest and south central, possible nudging northward. So, the severe threat will remain conditional, but if a storm or storms were able to get going in earnest, large hail and damaging wind gusts remain a concern given the aforementioned shear/instability. A secondary wave pushes in from Montana later tonight, which may lead to some additional elevated storms, which would move through overnight. On Monday, surface trough to the west pushes over western North Dakota in the morning, into central North Dakota before stalling mid-day. Behind the trough, drier air will move in with breezy conditions developing, which will lead to some near-critical fire weather conditions over the far west. Ahead of the trough, moist air remains in place. CAPE values will again be elevated over this area, along with similar deep layer shear as today. Again, though, the threat remains conditional as to whether enough forcing will be in place in order for storms to develop. On Tuesday, quiet weather is expected as the ridge axis re- focuses over the Rockies, though a compact low/short wave will zip through southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba which may lead to a few showers or possibly a thunderstorm around the Turtle Mountains region. Northwest winds will be on the increase as the surface low with this system moves east through Manitoba into Ontario. Upper ridge gradually meanders east resulting in quiet weather for us through Thursday before a few weak waves move through the ridge, bringing some low precipitation chances to end the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible mainly across northern North Dakota overnight and into early Monday morning. Some of this activity could linger through the morning, and there could also be redevelopment in northwest and north central North Dakota later Monday morning and into the afternoon. The main impacts to aviation, aside from lightning, would be torrential rain causing IFR visibility restrictions, erratic wind gusts, and perhaps some lower ceilings. Pockets of IFR to LIFR ceilings have actually developed outside of showers and thunderstorms in northern parts of the state. Do not anticipate that these will prevail beyond the overnight hours. Outside of showers and thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected on Monday. Severe thunderstorms could develop near KJMS during the late afternoon and evening, but the probability is not yet high enough to include in the TAF. Winds will become west to northwest in western North Dakota this afternoon around 15-20 kts, with gusts to around 30 kts in the northwest. Central North Dakota should see westerly winds remain closer to 10 kts through the day && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.&& $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...Hollan  814 FXUS65 KPUB 240733 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 133 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scatted to numerous showers and storms expected again this afternoon and evening, with flash flood risk continuing for the Aspen Acres burn scar. - Showers and storms widespread again Tuesday and Wednesday, with an uptick in severe storm chances on the plains both days. Still a heavy rain rain/flood risk as well. - Gradual downturn in thunderstorm chances for the end of the week into the weekend, though threat of storms never completely goes away, with at least isolated activity over the mountains possible each day. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1231 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Currently, convection was exiting the region early this morning, with last few showers drifting into Kansas shortly after midnight. Satellite/radar trends plus CAMs all suggest convection is done for the night, and will go with a dry forecast for all locations into Monday morning. Upper high remains over NM today, with little change in the pattern over Colorado. and expect another round of afternoon/evening convection moving generally eastward through the area. Heavy rain again the main threat, and will continue the flash flood watch for the Aspen Acres scar, as storm environment is similar to the fast few days. Severe threat today looks limited by weak wind shear, best chance may be over Kiowa County where low/mid level winds are a tad higher, though any stronger storms will have at least a low end gusty wet microburst threat. Max temps look similar to yesterday as mid-level heights show little change. On Tuesday, weak cold front drops south through the plains late in the day, bringing increased forcing for storms as low level winds, improving effective shear along and east of I-25. Surface dewpoints come up as well, leading to CAPE in the 1k-2k J/KG range east of the Interstate. SWODY2 marginal risk on the eastern plains looks good for now, any higher risk will depend on where low level boundary and subsequent pooling of higher instability end up, as 00z models point more toward KS than ern CO for the strongest storms. Farther west, usual crop of afternoon/evening storms will roll east off the mountains, and will again need to watch for heavy rain over the Aspen Acres burn scar, especially late day as front and outflow potentially push moisture back toward the high terrain. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1231 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Expect a slightly stronger westward push of moisture Tue night into Wed behind departing central plains convection, with deeper moisture and instability along and east of the mountains during the day, though potential for early morning stratus could hamper instability initially. Overall, expect Wed to be perhaps the most convectively active day of the week, with heavy rain threat over much of the region and at least a low end severe threat along and east of I-25. Cooler temps expected Wed with clouds and moisture, and maxes will end up near/below seasonal averages for a change at many locations. Upper ridge drifts west and expands northward for the end of the week, before potentially flattening and drifting back eastward early next week. Overall, expect a slow drying/warming trend from Thu into the weekend, though enough recycled moisture will be around for daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms, especially over the mountains. Plains could see still see some storms Thu/Fri, before most activity retreats into the higher terrain over the weekend. Max temps will drift upward through the period, with 80s/90s widespread and even a few 100 degf readings returning to the plains. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1050 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Surface Winds will be light and diurnally driven. Some isolated thunder may affect the taf sites late tomorrow afternoon and early evening. Gusty winds will be the main concern with the storms. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from this afternoon through this evening for COZ079-080-086. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...PETERSEN AVIATION...HODANISH  965 FXUS61 KBOX 240736 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 336 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added Martha's Vineyard to the Rip Current Statement today. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier with more seasonable temperatures today through much of this week. - Rain chances return Thursday/Friday, though drier conditions look to return heading into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Drier with more seasonable temperatures today through much of this week. Higher dewpoints with light winds and wet surfaces have aided in the development of areas of fog this morning, particularly in areas that tend to be more prone to it. This is expected to burn off shortly after sunrise. A cold front associated with low pressure centered over eastern Ontario/western Quebec continues to track east over New England into the morning hours today. In its wake, clearer skies and breezy southwesterly winds prevail over southern New England. Occasional gusts to around 20-25 MPH are possible in the afternoon. Temperatures today return to more seasonable levels with highs back in the upper 70s and low 80s. This general pattern will continue at least into Wednesday as high pressure slowly builds in behind the front. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances return Thursday/Friday, though drier conditions look to return heading into the weekend. High pressure looks to shift offshore heading into Thursday ahead of a shortwave over the Great Lakes. Slightly more agreement amongst the ensembles regarding the track of its associated low pressure has come into the picture with the latest model runs, but uncertainty still remains. Low pressure develops over the Great Lakes, which guidance also resolves as extending up into Hudson Bay on the front end of the upper level trough. This low pressure is slated to track east through Canada, bringing showers down through New England. Timing-wise, guidance continues to key in on late Thursday/early Friday as the onset time for rain to return to southern New England, lasting through Friday. NAEFS guidance has continued to show more anomalous PWATs returning over the region within this timeframe as well. This will very likely change to some degree in the coming days as we approach this event. Following rain towards the end of the work week, there are indications that high pressure makes a return heading into Saturday, drying out southern New England once more. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update... Through 12z...Moderate confidence in trends but lower confidence in specific timing. VFR/MVFR conditions, however light winds with higher dewpoints and remaining wet ground will remain conducive to the development of areas of fog. Some have already developed across NE MA, parts of RI and SE MA, and up in the Worcester hills. Areas all prone to fog will likely see it before daybreak if they aren't already, and it may become locally dense. Monday and Monday night...High confidence. Any leftover ground fog quickly burns off after sunrise this morning. VFR with SW winds of 7-13 kt with a few gusts up to 20 kts possible in the afternoon/evening hours across the region, though ACK may remain under an inversion that prevents the development of gusts based on the latest forecast soundings. VFR conditions continue tonight outside of any localized patches of ground fog that develop in typically prone locations. Winds become calm/light SW overnight. Tuesday...High confidence. Generally VFR, though lower end VFR to higher end MVFR possible over the interior. W winds 6-13 kt with gusts near the Cape and Islands nearing 20 kt possible. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Low clouds remain possible through 12z this morning. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in trends but lower confidence in specific timing. Fog has not developed yet within the valley, though could expect it to do so over the next few hours and reach BDL before sunrise. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Tuesday...High confidence. Seas remain generally 2-4 ft through Tuesday. SW winds today into tonight up to 12 kt may gust to around 20 kt towards the afternoon hours. Winds then shift more to the W at 10-15 kt heading into Tuesday morning, though winds over the near northern waters may remain more S and below 10 kt through the afternoon. Gusts over the southern waters Tuesday may reach 20 kt or so again in the afternoon. Swell periods of 11-12 seconds are expected off the coasts of Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket, which will lead to a higher risk of rip currents along south-facing beaches there, warranting expansion of the Rip Current Statement over the Vineyard. A moderate risk for rip currents extends along SE MA and RI beaches due to swells as well. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT this morning through this afternoon for MAZ023-024. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hrencecin AVIATION...Hrencecin MARINE...Hrencecin  996 FXUS61 KLWX 240736 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 336 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Expanded on the mid-week thunderstorm threat in Key Message 2. Severe threat is low, but not zero Thursday afternoon/evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dry conditions anticipated through early portions of the week. - 2) Warmer and more humid conditions return mid-week, with thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions anticipated through early portions of the week. High pressure will continue to slowly build toward the area on Monday and Tuesday, resulting in dry conditions and lower humidity levels. High temperatures will generally be in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with overnight lows in the 50s to lower 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Warmer and more humid conditions return mid- week, with thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday. Heading into Wednesday, dry, pleasant conditions continue into much of the day and afternoon. As an upper level ridge over the midwest begins to flatten in amplitude, southwesterly mid-level winds advect tropical moisture northward into our region. As this tropical air mass moves through our region, humid conditions return through the end of the week. A weak piece of shortwave energy is also expected to approach the region Wednesday evening, which could spark a few storms in the evening/overnight hours. As the upper trough over the northeast CONUS starts to push more offshore on Wednesday, we will see some subtle rises in 500 hPa heights. This, paired with a developing southerly surface wind pattern will yield more typical August warmth and increased humidity. Expect high temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90, along with dew points increasing into the low to mid 60s. The ridge doesn't will only be overhead during the day though, as another piece of shortwave energy rotates through late in the evening into the overnight. There won't be a lot of instability left over when this rotates through, but there may be enough to pop off a few overnight showers. By Thursday, after a day of southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front from the west, humidity will jump markedly. Temperatures remain in the mid 80s to low 90s, but dew points jump into the upper 60s and perhaps even into the low 70s. The aforementioned cold front will come through during the day Thursday. If timed during peak heating, there could be around 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE to work with. The shortwave is subtle, with only about 20 kts of deep layer shear showing up in most guidance. So, the threat for organized severe weather is rather low. Additionally, this is not one of the extreme heat/humidity setups, so thinking is a more isolated wind threat at this point. Latest AI medium-range guidance generally agrees, painting anywhere from 5 to 15 percent severe probs over the region depending on which one you use. By Friday, the front should be mostly offshore. However, there is still the slight chance that it lingers somewhere near/east of I-95, which could bring renewed afternoon storm chances. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Prevailing VFR conditions and westerly winds are expected at the terminals through Tuesday. Winds today will be around 5 to 10 knots, with gusts up to 18 knots. Wind Tuesday will be a little lighter. Light to gentle winds turn southerly Wednesday afternoon. Initial VFR conditions could deteriorate as showers and thunderstorms potentially move in Wednesday night. Additional showers and storms may be possible on Thursday with continued southerly winds. && .MARINE... West to northwesterly winds are forecast over the waters through Tuesday as high pressure gradually approaches from the Ohio Valley. Winds shift southerly by Wednesday, with winds gusting above SCA thresholds later that evening in a classic southerly channeling event ahead of an approaching cold front. Southerly winds nearing SCA criteria continue into Thursday afternoon as well. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJL/SRT AVIATION...CJL/SRT MARINE...CJL/SRT  099 FXUS61 KCAR 240739 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 339 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - 3:39AM UPDATE...Have extended the Dense Fog Advisory through to 9AM. Dense Fog Advisory now in effect for Northwest and Northeast Aroostook County, All of Washington County and Coastal Hancock County. Webcams, ASOS/AWOS are showing rapidly increasing coverage of fog with visibilities dropping to 1/4mi or lower in spots. Expecting this to last till an hour or so after sunrise. No other changes at this time. - Increased precip/thunder chances for North Woods Monday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Areas of dense fog into the morning, and possibly again Monday night. Fog will impact travel conditions. 2) Chance of showers through Monday afternoon, with possibly some thunderstorms in Northern Maine Monday afternoon. 3) Chance of showers and thunderstorms north of Bangor Tuesday and mainly across northern Aroostook Wednesday. 4) Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening, some of which may be on the locally strong side with gusty winds and small hail. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Areas of dense fog into the morning, and possibly again Monday night. Fog will impact travel conditions. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Fog is the main concern. Areas of fog and low clouds are moving through the area, especially along the coast. The best chance of the dense fog is near the Downeast coast, but can't rule out significant fog further inland too. The fog should generally dissipate during the day Monday, but fog appears likely again Monday night. There may be a slightly later onset to the fog in the evening Monday, but still think the fog could be locally dense by later Monday night. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 9 AM Monday for Southern and Central Washington as well as coastal Hancock counties. KEY MESSAGE 2...Chance of showers through Monday afternoon, with possibly some thunderstorms in Northern Maine Monday afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Areas of drizzle moving from south to north along with the fog and low clouds overnight. Some drying expected into Monday morning, but with a bit of clearing, expect enough instability for showers and storms to fire off by about midday in north and west areas. Scattered showers/storms are expected, with the best chance being inland away from the more stable marine layer. That said, even in the wetter north, only going with a 40-60 percent chance of showers/storms, best chance in the western North Woods along the Quebec border. Monday will not be a rainout by any means. Cannot rule out a couple of the storms being on the stronger side with gusty winds, and there is some uncertainty how many storms can fire in the first place. Bangor and Downeast should remain dry, save for a shower or two. KEY MESSAGE 3...Chance of showers and thunderstorms north of Bangor Tuesday and mainly across northern Aroostook Wednesday. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... The axis of an upper level closed low that is gradually weakening as it passes to the north, then northeast Tuesday- Wednesday, should bring with it sufficient instability in the low-mid levels with its associated cold-pool aloft, that it should produce scattered showers in areas north of Bangor on Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon, low to mid level lapse rates should be around 8C/km, with a few hundred J/kg of CAPE and around 35-45 kt of bulk shear. This should produce some strong storms across the region north of Bangor. Wet bulb zero heights are around 7500-8500 ft away from the coast so the greatest risk would be small hail. On Wednesday, as the upper low weakens and retreats to the northeast, the threat will be limited to the North, with low level lapse rates around 7.5-8 C/km, around 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE and around 20-30 kt of shear. Once again strong storms are possible with mainly isolated storms across northern Aroostook. The wetbulb zero height is a little higher at 8500-9000 J/kg, but still low enough to support hail. With the stronger CAPE, the main threat is both strong winds and small hail in the strongest convection across the North on Wednesday. KEY MESSAGE 4...Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening, some of which may be on the locally strong side with gusty winds and small hail. KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION... A cold front crosses the area Friday afternoon and evening on the leading edge of a full latitude trough pushing into the region, with the added support of a northern stream shortwave pushing through the trough around that time. With the potential for 500-1500 J/kg of CAPE and 25-35KT of bulk shear, there is a risk of some locally strong thunderstorms ahead of the front, with the main threat strong gusty winds. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 12z This Morning...Mainly IFR/LIFR conditions with brief periods of VLIFR. BR/FG and low cigs. Winds generally S and less than 5kt. VCSH possible. Today...IFR/LIFR becoming MVFR mid morning then VFR by midday. Might take longer to VFR at BHB. VCSH/-SHRA mainly for afternoon at northern terms. Low confidence -SHRA at BGR. PROB30 for northern terms (FVE,CAR,PQI and HUL) for -TSRA this afternoon. S winds 5-10kt with gusts up to 15kt. Tonight...VFR becoming MVFR/IFR cigs with BR/FG developing and possible LIFR/VLIFR vsby. Winds light and variable. Tuesday...Chance of IFR/LIFR early Tuesday AM at all terms in low cigs and/or FG. VFR mid morning into the afternoon. MVFR or lower possible in any stronger convection north of KBGR in the afternoon. SW winds 5-10kt, gusty winds in any storms possible. Tuesday night...VFR. Light and variable winds. Wednesday...VFR. Possible MVFR vsby due to -SHRA in the afternoon at KFVE/KCAR/KPQI. Wednesday night...VFR. Light and variable winds. Thursday...VFR. S winds 5-15kt with gusts up to 25kt. LLWS possible late afternoon. Thursday Night...VFR becoming MVFR/IFR with -SHRA developing. S winds 5-15kt. LLWS possible. Friday: MVFR/IFR in the early morning, then VFR mid morning, then MVFR or lower possible in any showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon. LLWS possible. S winds 5-15kt with higher gusts possible. && .MARINE... Fog over the waters through Monday night. S/SE winds 15 kts or less and seas 2-4 ft are forecast on all waters out to 60NM through Friday. There is a chance for dense fog on the waters Tuesday morning, reducing visibility to less than 1 nm. There is the chance for some thunderstorms over the waters late on Friday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MEZ001-002- 017-029-030-032. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JS/JMM AVIATION...JS/JMM  276 FXUS63 KILX 240743 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 243 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonal and mostly dry weather is expected through Tuesday. - The next chance for showers and storms arrives Wednesday. Some of these storms could be strong to marginally severe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Upper analysis has the middle Mississippi Valley positioned under northwest flow with strong upper ridging over the southwest US and a closed low impacting the northeast US. Surface high pressure over central IL early this morning has kept skies mostly clear and winds light. Temperatures as of 2 am have dropped into the upper 50s to low 60s with dewpoint depressions ranging from 0 to a couple degrees. Because of this, patchy low lying fog will be possible through about sunrise. Otherwise, seasonal and mostly dry weather is expected through Tuesday with high temperatures today and tomorrow expected to be in the upper 70s to middle 80s. By Wednesday, a mid-level shortwave will track through the southern Canadian provinces and into the northern Great Lakes Region, sending a cold front through Illinois. This will bring our next chance for showers and storms. Out ahead of the front, temperatures will climb well into the 80s with steady moisture return bringing dewpoints back into the upper 60s to low 70s. Moderately strong instability is expected to develop by Wednesday afternoon with seasonally strong shear around 30 kts nearest to the front. Forecast soundings depict inverted-V T/Td profiles, implying evaporative cooling could rapidly send parcels toward the surface and locally increase winds. A capping inversion will be in place most of the day, but will erode by late afternoon/early evening as the front approaches and lapse rates steepen. Although the better forcing will be displaced to our north, a few strong to marginally severe storms could develop late Wednesday afternoon and evening, posing a threat for damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail. Northwest flow remains largely in place through late this week, transitioning to zonal by the weekend. A few weak shortwaves rippling through the upper flow may spark occasional spotty showers through the end of the week, though most will stay dry. Longer range guidance shows a more defined wave/front moving through the Midwest states sometime between Saturday night and Sunday, which could bring another chance for showers and storms. Temperatures will remain seasonable through the end of the week, then turn warmer later this weekend into early next week with the NBM showing upper 80s to near 90 degree highs. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 High pressure will be in place over central Illinois most of the period resulting in light and variable winds. Fog is the primary concern overnight into Monday morning and may be possible again after the current TAF period Monday night into Tuesday morning. Outside of fog, VFR conditions will prevail the remainder of the period with some high based diurnal cumulus developing Monday afternoon and increasing mid level clouds late in the period. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...NMA DISCUSSION...NMA AVIATION...Deubelbeiss  635 FXUS63 KLOT 240751 CCA AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 250 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The next chance of showers and thunderstorms is with a cold front moving across the area midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 212 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 High pressure continues to settle into the mid-Mississippi Valley and will remain in place through Tuesday. As a result, dry conditions with generally comfortable humidity are expected to start off the work week. Temperatures today will once again be on the seasonably cool side with highs only topping out in the upper 70s to around 80 this afternoon. A lake breeze is expected to develop and move inland this afternoon and evening which will result in cooling temperatures along the lakeshore, though with lake temperatures in the lower 70s the temperature drop shouldn't be overly impressive. Overnight lows tonight won't be as chilly as they will be this morning, but will dip into the mid-50s inland with upper 50s near the lake. As winds turn more south-southwesterly on Tuesday, warmer air should begin to advect into the area and result with more seasonable highs in the lower 80s. Rain chances are still forecast to increase as we head into the middle of the week as the shortwave trough over the Mountain West pivots into the Great Lakes. A cold front is expected to accompany the shortwave as it moves through the region which should serve as the impetus for showers and thunderstorms. Similar to last night, guidance continues to show some showers/storms developing along the front in the Upper Midwest on Tuesday and drifting towards northern IL Tuesday night. Though, with moisture return continuing to look more limited locally and the unfavorable diurnal time, these showers/storms should be in a decaying state as they approach IL (if they make it at) so the greatest coverage of any rain Tuesday night should be near the IL-WI line. The front is expected to continue moving across northern IL and northwest IN on Wednesday which should allow for the redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening as diurnal destabilization occurs. Despite the decent MLCAPE values noted in forecast soundings, shower and storm coverage continues to look spotty likely due to weaker frontal convergence and the core of the shortwave currently forecast to be centered over MI. So while this may mean some areas get little rain, our official forecast will continue to advertise broad 30 to locally 50% chances for showers and storms on Wednesday. Regardless of storm coverage, deep layer shear values of 25-35 kts are still expected in the area which may support a few storms becoming strong to locally severe Wednesday afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has added a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk to our area for Wednesday because of this potential. The cold front should exit the area late Wednesday night into Thursday morning which looks to allow another surface high to build into the area. However, with some subtle frontal timing differences noted in ensemble guidance the exact time the front exits remains uncertain. Nevertheless, the building high pressure behind the front will result in a period of dry weather to close out the work week with otherwise seasonable temperatures expected. The signal remains for a shift towards a more active upper-level pattern as we head towards the beginning of next week which looks to mean more shower and thunderstorm chances so enjoy the nice weather while we have it. Yack && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1248 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Key aviation forecast messages: - Lake breeze may turn winds east this afternoon at ORD/MDW Winds will remainlight and variable through daybreak, potentially leaning more consistently westerly at the Chicago terminals due to a weak land breeze. Winds then settle into a prevailing NW to NNW after daybreak around 5-10 kt. A lake breeze is forecast to drift inland during the afternoon. While confidence in the timing that it reaches ORD/MDW remains on the lower side, did move up the wind shift by an hour at MDW to 20Z based on hi-res guidance trending a bit earlier there (maintained 22Z at ORD for now). VFR conditions are forecast through the period with varying coverage of diurnal cumulus around 5000 ft and occasional higher clouds. Can't fully rule out shallow fog (MIFG) developing outside of Chicago early this morning but the potential is too low to include a formal TAF mention. Petr && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  663 FXUS63 KSGF 240751 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 251 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri into this morning. Damaging wind to 60 mph and hail to the size of quarters are the primary severe weather hazards. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding are also possible. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 A difficult forecast given models significant diverging from previous solutions. However, ingredients are still in place for thunderstorms to expand in coverage through the night and linger into Monday morning, some of which may be strong to severe. 60 mph winds and quarter size hail are the potential severe risks, with flooding also possible. 00Z HREF LPMM data continues to show potential for very localized amounts up to 3-6 inches. The greatest potential for convection is south and west of Springfield. For the rest of the today, look for highs ranging from the low 80s to low 90s, warmest west where heat index values near 100 are possible this afternoon. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 An upper level ridge will remain west of area this week. Highs will generally range from the mid/upper 80s across central Missouri to the low/middle 90s across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri each day this week into next weekend. The region will remain in northwest flow this this week. Ensemble data shows an upper level disturbance moving through the northwest flow bringing 20-40% chances for showers and storms Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Showers and thunderstorms may expand in coverage and intensity later tonight into Monday morning. However, the latest models runs are changing rapidly, generally showing a decreasing trend. Further evaluation may lead to significant TAF updates prior to the 12Z issuance. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Titus LONG TERM...Titus AVIATION...Titus  874 FXUS63 KAPX 240757 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 357 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lingering Breezy, Drizzly Conditions Today... - Rain/storm chances return midweek... && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 357 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Broad ridge remains in place over the southwestern US...but northern axis is being shunted eastward into the Upper Midwest attm as an upper low tracks across southern Canada, deepening as it goes. 560dm 500mb low encompasses the Lower Great Lakes, centered just east of Georgian Bay...with a 1003mb occluded surface low as a response. Cold air mass (+8C at 850mb overhead attm) associated with this feature resulting in a tight thermal gradient and attendant 100+kt upper jet wrapping from Lake Superior through the Mid-Atlantic, and up through New England and eastern Canada. Return flow through the Plains aiding in a plume of moisture stretching from central Canada ahead of aforementioned upstream trough, down into the Lower MS Valley and around to the Canadian coast, along/ahead of a surface boundary from disturbance in Saskatchewan...wrapping back around the upper low over eastern Canada. Warm/moist advection wrapping around the backside of the low into the Upper Great Lakes, with strong low- level flow through the Soo into Lake Huron. Area of stratiform rain wrapping down across the eastern half of the CWA attm with a few NW flow lake effect/enhanced showers showing their face as of 5z near and west of I-75. Ridge axis to slide overhead today...and will expect the influence of the upper low and filling surface low to further wane as we go through the day. Upstream upper low crests the longwave ridge axis Tuesday and begins to track southeastward into the Upper Midwest...bringing our next shot at rain/storms. This feature appears to slow a bit, crossing the Upper Great Lakes at some point Wednesday/Wednesday night. Upstream ridging strengthens over central Canada in its wake...with some energy attempting to enter western Canada...and an upper low developing over Hudson Bay that should try to scoop up our midweek system. This suggests we will remain in the presence of a baroclinic zone for late week...and with cool/cold, cyclonic flow influencing our weather again, would anticipate unsettled weather will prevail. Attm...quite a bit of uncertainty in the evolution of the forecast for the end of next week, depending on when Pacific energy attempts to eject through the flow, which should increase return flow through the central US and should keep the unsettled idea going into the end of August. Ridge axis over central Canada may get pinched quite tightly, but there are some signals it may try to hold on going into next weekend...and will certainly need to keep an eye on this for some kind of blocking pattern to develop to our north. FORECAST DETAILS... Lingering breezy conditions and rain showers today...Strongest winds will be this morning into early afternoon, with sustained winds remaining around 10-15kts, but the pressure gradient will be diminishing, and think there is a reasonable shot we could end up with light/variable winds after dark tonight as high pressure builds in. Plume of richer moisture (both in an absolute and relative sense) looks slow to depart, especially northeast Lower, and think this is where there will be a better shot at seeing more persistent rain/drizzle today...though not impossible things could stay a little more drizzly near Gaylord with northwest flow upsloping through the day, and there could be an uptick in coverage in the afternoon with a niblet of PV looking to swing through. However, there are not terribly strong signals for forcing attm, and have suspicions we may not end up with much more than scattered/broken stratocu. Rain/storms Tuesday night-Wednesday...We could start to see the first inklings of at least mid/high clouds by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the next system...though not impossible some rain showers may try to sneak in during this time. Better theta-e advection enters the scene Tuesday evening into Tuesday night as the system looks to take shape a little better upstream ahead of the digging trough, and this this is the more likely timeframe for rain and thunderstorms to move in...perhaps as some sort of upstream convective feature/dying convective feature that crosses the lake? Though this could bring a warm nose that could take most of the day to overcome...but it currently appears we have potential for several hundred joules of elevated instability to work with, which could become surface-based in the afternoon if we warm enough. With marginal (30ish kts, give or take) deep-layer shear in play, think we will need to keep an eye out for some storm organization as well. Absolute moisture increases again along/ahead of the associated cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, perhaps up towards 1.5in...and with signals for reasonable synoptic forcing to work with, and perhaps not overly fast storm motions...will need to monitor for heavy rain potential right on into Wednesday night. Appears the most likely area for heavier rainfall will be the Yoop, closer to the better forcing with potential for a niblet to lift out ahead of the main trough (sort of a Maddox Synoptic Type heavy rainfall event, from a pattern recognition standpoint...though we lack the jet coupling usually involved in that setup). Attm...probabilistic guidance suggests there is a 20-40 percent chance of some portion of the EUP seeing an inch of rain in 24hrs during the Wednesday timeframe...but still have a couple days to nail down some of the finer details a little better and hone in on any higher QPF bullseyes. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1055 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Band of MVFR producing low clouds and some light showers expected to continue to impact KCIU and KAPN into this morning. May also see some of this lower overcast impact KPLN as well, but confidence remains low in this occurring. Cigs will only slowly improve at KCIU and KAPN through today, with more rapid improvement this evening. VFR conditions the remainder of the taf locations through the period under some passing higher based cumulus at times. Gusty northwest winds will continue today, with winds decreasing this evening. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ016-020- 099. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ018-024. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ346. Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT early this morning for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ321- 322. && $$ DISCUSSION...FEF AVIATION...MSB