836 FXUS61 KBGM 240600 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 200 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... PoPs were increased early this morning with a band of showers rotating through mainly before daybreak. PoPs were also increased along with shower coverage this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon with lake enhancement expected. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers are expected to continue into Tuesday, most numerous across Central NY with some lake enhancement. 2) High pressure builds in for a brief lull in wet weather Tuesday night into Wednesday, then additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to return Thursday into Friday before drying back out heading into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A broad upper level trough remains over the region today with a closed low off to our north that will slowly drift east into western Quebec. A potent shortwave embedded in the flow will swing through the area early this morning and help drawn in some noticeably cooler air. As this feature moves through, some light showers are expected to accompany it prior to daybreak. Southwesterly flow will become more westerly this afternoon, and northwesterly into Tuesday, tapping into lake moisture. With cool air aloft this afternoon, steepening low-level lapse rates, and up to a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, scattered showers are expected to develop, most widespread from the Twin Tiers on north. Some small hail can't be ruled out in the heaviest of showers. Lake effect rain showers are expected to become more concentrated north of the Southern Tier tonight before northwesterly flow Tuesday and lake enhancement with another upper level shortwave rotating through along the base of the departing upper trough spreads showers farther south and east once again. PoPs were increased from the NBM across the Twin Tiers both this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon as the NBM tends to be underdone with shower coverage and not far enough SE in this set up. It will be quite cool today with highs in the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Portions of SW Steuben County may even struggle to reach the lower 60s. Lows tonight will be mainly in the upper 40s to the mid 50s. Highs Tuesday again generally range from the mid 60s to the low 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure briefly builds in Tuesday night into Wednesday with dry conditions. The next cold frontal boundary starts to approach from the west Thursday and moves through Thursday night into early Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure may form near the Southeast Coast and lift north ahead of the front and enhance the moisture across the area which could result in some localized downpours. WPC does has NE PA and the southern Catskills outlooked in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall this far out for Thursday/Thursday night, so this will be a trend to monitor. High pressure looks to build back in with drier conditions for the start of next weekend. Temperatures will be on the rise Wednesday through Friday with highs generally in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. The Lake Plain and portions of the Finger Lakes do look a bit warmer on Thursday ahead of the front with some places reaching the low and mid 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions are expected tonight, with the typical fog potential at ELM. A few rain showers that are moving in may lead to some higher humidity and lead to fog tonight despite some more elevated winds across the hill tops. Lake effect rain showers likely develop tomorrow afternoon with MVFR cigs and vis possible at ITH, SYR, and RME. Outlook... Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR, morning fog potential at ELM.Friday...Potential restrictions with an incoming frontal system. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DK AVIATION...AJG/KL  912 FXUS66 KOTX 240601 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1101 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming and drying trend Monday and Tuesday - Minor to moderate heatrisk Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 90s. - Breezy winds Wednesday into Thursday with elevated fire weather conditions. && .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures warm Monday into Tuesday with afternoon highs in the 90s by Tuesday. The heat begins to break down Wednesday into Thursday with an increasing risk for breezy winds and mountain thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Today and Wednesday: A ridge will build into the region along the Continental Divide while a trough digs in off the coast. A similar pattern will be setting up from this past weekend. The ridge will be in place for a couple of days leading to dry, warm pattern. Highs will climb back into the 90s. Moderate HeatRisk will return for most lowland locations on Tuesday and Wednesday. As the trough begins to press into the region, a weak band of instability will slide through the Lower Idaho Panhandle and bring a less than 10% chance for showers and isolated thunderstorm on Tuesday night. Late Wednesday and Thursday: The trough begin to push into the region on Wednesday and slowly track East. Ensembles have weak instability over the Cascades, northern mountains, and the Idaho Panhandle. Precipitable water amounts are 0.75-0.9 of an inch. Winds will increase through the Okanogan Valley and Waterville Plateau with gusts in the 20-30 mph range. Wednesday highs will be in the 90s before dropping into the 80s on Thursday. Friday through Sunday: The trough will struggle to displace the ridge over Central US. Ensembles have the trough pattern stalled over the region through the weekend. Drier air will push into the region as precipitable water values drop to around half an inch. While meaningful amount of rain is not expected, the trough will drop highs back into the upper 70s and 80s through the end of the week. /JDC && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFs: Dry, stable condtions will bring VFR conditions for the period. Winds will slowly shift toward the north and northeast for KMWH, KGEG, KCOE, KPUW overnight. High clouds will filter in from the south in the late morning to early afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Main uncertainty and potential for forecast updates will be smoke into KEAT driving down visibility below 6SM. This comes with lower confidence given the elevated winds in place. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 53 86 55 95 59 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Coeur d'Alene 53 86 55 95 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Pullman 46 86 49 94 53 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Lewiston 56 91 60 99 65 96 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Colville 43 85 45 92 49 93 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Sandpoint 46 82 50 91 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 Kellogg 51 84 53 92 57 92 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 Moses Lake 54 89 56 95 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 61 88 64 94 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 53 87 58 94 61 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until 2 PM PDT Monday for Central Chelan County-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County. ID...None. && $$  070 FXUS61 KCAR 240604 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 204 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Expanded Dense Fog Advisory to include Central and Southern Washington and coastal Hancock counties. - Increased precip/thunder chances for North Woods Monday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Areas of dense fog into the morning, and possibly again Monday night. Fog will impact travel conditions. 2) Chance of showers through Monday afternoon, with possibly some thunderstorms in Northern Maine Monday afternoon. 3) Chance of showers and thunderstorms north of Bangor Tuesday and mainly across northern Aroostook Wednesday. 4) Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening, some of which may be on the locally strong side with gusty winds and small hail. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Areas of dense fog into the morning, and possibly again Monday night. Fog will impact travel conditions. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Fog is the main concern. Areas of fog and low clouds are moving through the area, especially along the coast. The best chance of the dense fog is near the Downeast coast, but can't rule out significant fog further inland too. The fog should generally dissipate during the day Monday, but fog appears likely again Monday night. There may be a slightly later onset to the fog in the evening Monday, but still think the fog could be locally dense by later Monday night. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 9 AM Monday for Southern and Central Washington as well as coastal Hancock counties. KEY MESSAGE 2...Chance of showers through Monday afternoon, with possibly some thunderstorms in Northern Maine Monday afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Areas of drizzle moving from south to north along with the fog and low clouds overnight. Some drying expected into Monday morning, but with a bit of clearing, expect enough instability for showers and storms to fire off by about midday in north and west areas. Scattered showers/storms are expected, with the best chance being inland away from the more stable marine layer. That said, even in the wetter north, only going with a 40-60 percent chance of showers/storms, best chance in the western North Woods along the Quebec border. Monday will not be a rainout by any means. Cannot rule out a couple of the storms being on the stronger side with gusty winds, and there is some uncertainty how many storms can fire in the first place. Bangor and Downeast should remain dry, save for a shower or two. KEY MESSAGE 3...Chance of showers and thunderstorms north of Bangor Tuesday and mainly across northern Aroostook Wednesday. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... The axis of an upper level closed low that is gradually weakening as it passes to the north, then northeast Tuesday- Wednesday, should bring with it sufficient instability in the low-mid levels with its associated cold-pool aloft, that it should produce scattered showers in areas north of Bangor on Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon, low to mid level lapse rates should be around 8C/km, with a few hundred J/kg of CAPE and around 35-45 kt of bulk shear. This should produce some strong storms across the region north of Bangor. Wet bulb zero heights are around 7500-8500 ft away from the coast so the greatest risk would be small hail. On Wednesday, as the upper low weakens and retreats to the northeast, the threat will be limited to the North, with low level lapse rates around 7.5-8 C/km, around 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE and around 20-30 kt of shear. Once again strong storms are possible with mainly isolated storms across northern Aroostook. The wetbulb zero height is a little higher at 8500-9000 J/kg, but still low enough to support hail. With the stronger CAPE, the main threat is both strong winds and small hail in the strongest convection across the North on Wednesday. KEY MESSAGE 4...Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening, some of which may be on the locally strong side with gusty winds and small hail. KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION... A cold front crosses the area Friday afternoon and evening on the leading edge of a full latitude trough pushing into the region, with the added support of a northern stream shortwave pushing through the trough around that time. With the potential for 500-1500 J/kg of CAPE and 25-35KT of bulk shear, there is a risk of some locally strong thunderstorms ahead of the front, with the main threat strong gusty winds. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 12z This Morning...Mainly IFR/LIFR conditions with brief periods of VLIFR. BR/FG and low cigs. Winds generally S and less than 5kt. VCSH possible. Today...IFR/LIFR becoming MVFR mid morning then VFR by midday. Might take longer to VFR at BHB. VCSH/-SHRA mainly for afternoon at northern terms. Low confidence -SHRA at BGR. PROB30 for northern terms (FVE,CAR,PQI and HUL) for -TSRA this afternoon. S winds 5-10kt with gusts up to 15kt. Tonight...VFR becoming MVFR/IFR cigs with BR/FG developing and possible LIFR/VLIFR vsby. Winds light and variable. Tuesday...Chance of IFR/LIFR early Tuesday AM at all terms in low cigs and/or FG. VFR mid morning into the afternoon. MVFR or lower possible in any stronger convection north of KBGR in the afternoon. SW winds 5-10kt, gusty winds in any storms possible. Tuesday night...VFR. Light and variable winds. Wednesday...VFR. Possible MVFR vsby due to -SHRA in the afternoon at KFVE/KCAR/KPQI. Wednesday night...VFR. Light and variable winds. Thursday...VFR. S winds 5-15kt with gusts up to 25kt. LLWS possible late afternoon. Thursday Night...VFR becoming MVFR/IFR with -SHRA developing. S winds 5-15kt. LLWS possible. Friday: MVFR/IFR in the early morning, then VFR mid morning, then MVFR or lower possible in any showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon. LLWS possible. S winds 5-15kt with higher gusts possible. && .MARINE... Fog over the waters through Monday night. S/SE winds 15 kts or less and seas 2-4 ft are forecast on all waters out to 60NM through Friday. There is a chance for dense fog on the waters Tuesday morning, reducing visibility to less than 1 nm. There is the chance for some thunderstorms over the waters late on Friday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MEZ017-029- 030. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JS/JMM AVIATION...JS/JMM  059 FXUS61 KGYX 240604 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 204 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast at this time. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A cold front gradually moves through during the day today as an upper level low remains in the Great Lakes region. 2. The next chance of widespread rain comes late in the week, bookended by periods of dry weather through midweek and over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A cold front extending from a cut off low in the Great Lakes moves through during the daytime today. This brings the chance for a strong thunderstorm across the north near the Canadian border this afternoon before the front pushes off to the northeast. Elsewhere, scattered showers and a thunderstorm are possible, but overall a drying trend is expected through the day behind the front. Highs generally warm into the 70s to near 80s with sunshine returning. Despite the front passing, the chance for scattered showers and storms lingers as the cut off low in the Great Lakes takes a few more days to slowly progress eastward through southern Canada. So while the overall trend is drier, showers remain possible through Tuesday. Cooler temperatures return tonight with the drier airmass in place. Lows range from the mid 50s along the coast, to the upper 40s through the northern valleys. A stray shower can't ruled out during the overnight hours still. Seasonable temps return on Tuesday again, with highs mainly in the 70s to near 80 degrees. Early morning fog, locally dense, is likely. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Upper-level low finally fully ejects out of the region by Wednesday. Brief ridging Wed-early Thu should bring tranquil conditions with comfortable dew points persisting and seasonable temperatures. As we head deeper into Thursday, southerly flow returns out ahead of the next trough, which will advect a more humid airmass back into the region. A surface low closes off over Hudson Bay, sending a cold front through our region Friday night. Guidance indicates precipitation chances Thursday afternoon/evening primarily in interior zones away from the coast. There will be another chance on Friday with the actual front that looks more widespread as of now. Nothing noteworthy for rainfall at the moment, but long range models do already have a 30 to 50% chance for rainfall exceeding a half inch. At first glance QPF is scattered, indicating a more convective precip distribution is possible. Should see good moisture return with dew points reaching the upper 60s, which will provide the necessary juice for locally heavy downpours. First stab at next weekend suggests it could be a pleasant one with drying westerly flow behind the cold front, ushering in comfortable dew points in the 40s/50s. It will be a wait and see to know for sure though, as some guidance suggests the cold front may get hung up near the Southern New England coast. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Marine fog and low stratus keeps IFR to LIFR conditions at most sites until a cold front passes through. A return to VFR behind the front is expected from western sites in the early morning, to late morning for eastern sites. A scattered shower or storm is possible at all terminals this afternoon, with VFR prevailing otherwise. Valley fog will then be possible tonight at LEB and HIE, with VFR then returning by mid morning Tuesday and prevailing. Outlook: Tuesday-Thursday: Generally VFR conditions expected Thursday night-Friday: Generally MVFR conditions expected with widespread showers. IFR conditions possible in fog at night. && .MARINE... Conditions remain below SCA levels for at least the next few days, with a cold front passing through the waters this afternoon. Reduced visibility in marine fog is likely through midday today before the frontal passage. Broad high pressure then builds in for midweek. A stronger cold front is likely late in the week, with SCA conditions possible. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barker/Clair  046 FXUS63 KMPX 240604 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 104 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Next chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday, some chance for severe with marginal (1 of 5) risks. - Generally near normal temperatures over the next week, but slightly warmer than normal on Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 127 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Similar today to what we experienced yesterday with high pressure still present over the Upper Midwest. More diurnal cumulus as well as the atmosphere has heated, but lighter winds aloft have preventing a repeat of yesterday's gusty winds. Tonight will also be similar to last night with ample radiational cooling and some patchy fog in the cooler locations. The high moving out and a shift in the pattern will make this cooler area mainly across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. For western Minnesota, there has been a shift in the rain chances for tonight with most of the rain now most likely to stay south/west of the Minnesota River Valley and be kept within southwest Minnesota and areas farther to the southwest. Maybe parts of Martin County could see rain, but overall we look to miss out on this round. Monday and Tuesday will be driven by the shortwave moving across the Canadian Prairies with the fronts associated with it moving across the Upper Midwest. There will be a warming trend Monday and Tuesday as warm air advection associated with the circulation around this system occurs. This will come to an end as the cold frontal passage occurs, most likely in the later half of Tuesday. We could see some storms occur the later half of Monday into Tuesday morning associated more with the warm air advection and warm front with the support of a jet streak. Any severe chances here would be more in North Dakota and northwest Minnesota, but some chances extend further south into west central Minnesota as shown by the SPC marginal (1 of 5) risk. The better chance for some more widespread rain and storm chances will be the cold frontal passage later in the day on Tuesday. The main questions here will be familiar if you have been reading discussions over the past few days: timing of the frontal passage and moisture. If we had more moisture present this could easily be a fairly widespread event, but that still is a limiting factor in not just global ensemble solutions, but now CAMs as well. On the timing side it will be locations with frontal passage later in the day, as instability is able to build some, that could see convection come together. This should keep activity generally across eastern MN and western WI. With the questionable moisture rain will be very dependent on CI rather than the larger scale synoptic forcing of the front. So this will be the usual some winners and many losers with respect to the rain that we need. The rain deficit for the summer continues to grow with drought now across much of the broader region. Shear does not look great, so some doubt about higher end severe and sustained deep convection. This lines up with the SPC marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for areas along and east of I-35. Cooler air moves in on Wednesday behind the cold front, with temperatures still near normal. Rain chances related to some lift closer to the surface low will generally stay to our north across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday. Thursday into Friday morning higher pressure moves in with quiet weather and near normal temps. Late Friday into the next weekend is when our next system moves in. Differences between both the deterministic global models and their ensemble systems still have NBM PoPs spread out over this period. This should start to cluster more as it approaches to get a better idea of when this next system is most likely to occur. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 102 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Increasing high clouds overnight with light southeasterly winds. Southerly winds approach 10 kts by the afternoon with a few gusts up to 20 kts, speeds diminish after sunset. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind SW 10-20 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts. THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NDC AVIATION...ETA  071 FXUS64 KLIX 240604 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 104 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 100 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Daily scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast during the mid to late afternoon hours through the work week. A few storms could become strong to severe each day. The main threat from any severe storms will be damaging wind gusts. Frequent lightning and brief periods of very heavy rain will also be possible from these storms. Stay weather aware and remember when thunder roars, go indoors. - The increase in rain chances and cloud cover will help limit heat threats through the week, however, heat index values may still approach advisory criteria each day before thunderstorms develop by early afternoon. Those with outdoor plans should continue to take precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses. Stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade or air conditioning if possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Thursday) Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Upper ridge is pretty much parked between El Paso and Phoenix, with no indications that it is going anywhere this week. Basic forecast problem is timing of rounds of showers and thunderstorms triggered by shortwaves headed toward the trough axis to our east. One such shortwave is approaching Interstate 40 this morning, and is likely to trigger a round of showers and thunderstorms that should develop around midday when we reach the convective temperatures in the lower and middle 90s. Convection looks to be fairly widespread (likely an MCS) in most of the convection allowing models for the afternoon hours, with several models indicating a fairly healthy cold pool. Will not go with a Heat Advisory today, as it looks like even if we reach criteria (108F), relief should come fairly quickly. Most or all convection should be gone shortly after sunset. With CAPE values near 3000 and steep low level lapse rates and some DCAPE values in excess of 1000, there'll be at least a short window for damaging winds across pretty much the entire area. Have no quarrel with SPC's Day 1 Slight Risk for essentially the entire area. Considering precipitable water values could be in excess of 2 inches today, locally heavy rainfall is also an issue, per WPC's Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO). The biggest concern would be with very heavy rainfall rates overcoming drainage capabilities, which would mainly be a problem in urban areas. Overall, it's been pretty dry this month. Additional rounds of storms are possible each afternoon, although it appears at present that today's storms will have the greatest areal coverage and most significant impacts. If we're to see another MCS cross the area, it would probably be Wednesday or Thursday, with the current numbers supporting Thursday. Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will begin to have a cumulative effect, so we'll need to monitor hydrologic issues as the week goes on. If there's a bright side to the wetter pattern, it's that there will be some relief from the heat. Current heat index forecasts would indicate outside of a brief period around midday today, we shouldn't be needing any advisories during the midweek period. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Sunday) Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 As the weekend approaches, a shortwave disturbance should be lifting northeastward on the east side of the overall east coast long wave trough. This will cause the longer wave trough to flatten somewhat, leaving the local area in a general weakness between two highs - one centered over the southwestern CONUS and another centered over the Atlantic. With ample moisture remaining in place, daytime heating should still be enough to fire off showers and storms each afternoon, though not to the same extent as previous days. Coverage will likely be more isolated to scattered than scattered to numerous. Expect a slight/gradual warming trend as a result of the decreased convective coverage, with afternoon temperatures in the mid 90s and morning lows in the mid to upper 70s. One thing to keep an eye on concerning the southwestern CONUS high... Looking at ensemble guidance there is a non-negligible chance that the high might try to inch eastward a bit toward the local area through the weekend, which would lead to a slightly warmer and drier forecast than what is currently being advertised. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Isolated TSRA near the LA-MS state line necessitates a mention for the first couple hours in the KMCB and KHDC forecasts. VFR for the remainder of the night and remainder of the terminals. Main concern for this period will be development of TSRA by late morning or early afternoon at all terminals. While restrictions in the current forecast are MVFR, there's certainly the potential for IFR or lower visibilities if directly impacted by a stronger storm. Will use TEMPO for timing of the highest threat, surrounded by PROB30. Most convection should dissipate near or shortly after 00z Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Surface high pressure centered over the central Gulf will maintain a generally weak pressure gradient through much of the period. Weak and variable winds around 5 to 10 knots will become W then SW to start the week. A predominantly light southerly flow will set up by mid week and remain through the end of the week. Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible with winds and waves higher in and near this activity. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....DM AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW  080 FXUS65 KABQ 240604 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1204 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1138 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms will decrease in coverage again Monday, then increase in coverage Tuesday through Thursday, with a risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, and ponding of water on roads. - A risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will develop with storms along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains both Tuesday and Wednesday. - Moderate-to-high heat risk will impact much of central and eastern New Mexico during the first half of the week, then spread to western areas as well during the latter half of the week with near-record high temperatures each day. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1211 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Upper level high pressure remains squarely planted over NM with central 500 mb heights of about 597-598 decameters. This is keeping temperatures generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal. This orientation of the high has not offered any recent moisture intrusions to come into the state, but earlier monsoon moisture has been getting recycled with daily rounds of storms producing small, but mighty footprints. More stability has wrapped into the southeastern and south central areas of the forecast area, inhibiting storms there, and this has shoved the focus for convective initiation into the western and northern high terrain. The other feature of significance is a small perturbation riding in the weak westerly flow over CO which will spawn storms through the afternoon, and cold pools from these cells should eventually lead to a few more storms into northern NM through the evening. Any storms that make into northeastern NM could find localized shear enhancements near this cold pool, and could briefly turn strong to severe through the evening. Elsewhere outflows will keep low, but present, storm prospects in the northern and central valleys this evening with very low probabilities for airmass storms in the east central plains. Leftover cloud debris will then be slow to clear through the morning Monday. Conditions on Monday will be similar with another small shortwave trough moving on the northern periphery of the high into CO, likely igniting additional storms that will sag into northern NM. A moist backdoor frontal boundary will also be seeping into northeastern NM, potentially aiding in convective initiation while also introducing more shear for additional strong cells. Instability will expand a bit southward, introducing low storm chances for the central to south central highlands and mountains along with a more southward extent of the eastern plains. Temperatures will remain hot and above normal with only a degree or two of "cooling" in the northeast while southeastern zones gain as much. This will push Roswell to 105, Heat Advisory criteria for the area, so after coordination with neighboring offices, this advisory statement will be issued with this forecast package for Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1211 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Upper level high pressure will move very little through the mid week period, only sagging a bit southwestward near the AZ-NM border with 500 mb heights remaining in a 596-598 decameter range. Temperatures will remain hot and above normal with backdoor frontal intrusions only offering a couple to a few degrees of cooling in northeastern to east central zones Tuesday and more-so on Wednesday. With the high positioning slightly southwestward, this will introduce more northwesterly flow aloft over the northeastern NM zones. This coupled with northerly or easterly surface winds, will raise bulk shear values and increase the severe threat while higher dewpoints, upslope, and surface convergence also contribute. Storm coverage may undergo a slight reduction over the southwestern mountains and Continental Divide Tuesday and Wednesday, but should regain potential into Thursday as the moist backdoor frontal air mass gets convectively aided and shoved farther west. Into Friday, the high would remain close to the AZ-NM border with storms being reliant on diurnal heating and recycling of Thursday's moisture. By next weekend, the upper high looks to weaken and begin elongating west-to-east with drier air pivoting into NM from the northwest. The GFS and GEFS ensemble mean hints at another shortwave dropping into northeastern NM which would generate additional storms, but European and Canadian solutions do not appear as favorable. Consequently, the forecast for next weekend leans on the drier side with temperatures running a few to several degrees above normal for all areas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to gradually diminish through the late night hours. On Monday, scattered-to-isolated showers and thunderstorms will return to western and northern areas. A moist backdoor front will produce a north and northeast wind shift on the northeast plains during the morning, then the front will serve as a focus for storms over northeast and east central areas during the afternoon and evening hours. During the afternoon and evening, some storms on the eastern plains along and north of I-40, and as far west as the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountain, will probably turn severe by producing large hail and damaging winds. Farther west, a few of the stronger storms will be capable of producing erratic wind gusts up to 45 KT. Storm motion on Sunday afternoon and evening will generally be toward the northeast and east around 5-10 KT, except along and east of the central mountain chain where most storms should move toward the east and southeast around 5-15 KT. Finally, record and near-record high temperatures will make density altitude an important consideration for aviation operations near complex terrain this afternoon and early evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1211 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Upper level high pressure will remain stronger than normal for the next several days, generally keeping temperatures 5 to 12 degrees above average. However, sufficient monsoon moisture remains in place over western and northern NM where storms will develop through this evening, and a weak disturbance in Colorado may assist northern NM areas as it dips closer. An increase in storms is still forecast for northeastern NM Monday and Tuesday before multiplying across the eastern half of the state on Wednesday. The catalyst for this increase will be weak, but moist backdoor fronts that will slide in from the northeast, however they will not provide much in the way of temperature relief. Afternoon humidity will commonly drop to 12 to 20% each day, but the incoming backdoor fronts will allow humidity to recover better, particularly in northeastern areas where morning recoveries will reach 60-80% by mid week. Unfortunately, western zones will still observe only meager humidity recoveries of 40-60% in the mornings. There are indications that storms will reduce in number Friday into next weekend, but the above normal temperatures look to persist. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 64 95 63 96 / 10 5 5 5 Dulce........................... 48 91 51 91 / 10 10 10 20 Cuba............................ 58 90 59 91 / 30 20 20 10 Gallup.......................... 55 91 53 91 / 20 20 10 20 El Morro........................ 54 87 55 87 / 20 30 20 30 Grants.......................... 55 90 55 91 / 20 20 20 20 Quemado......................... 57 87 57 89 / 20 20 10 30 Magdalena....................... 62 89 64 90 / 10 20 10 20 Datil........................... 57 86 58 87 / 10 20 20 20 Reserve......................... 57 94 58 96 / 10 10 10 20 Glenwood........................ 64 99 63 100 / 10 10 5 20 Chama........................... 51 84 51 84 / 20 30 20 30 Los Alamos...................... 62 86 63 86 / 40 40 20 40 Pecos........................... 60 89 59 89 / 10 20 10 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 55 85 56 85 / 30 20 30 40 Red River....................... 46 76 46 75 / 30 30 30 50 Angel Fire...................... 41 80 40 80 / 20 40 30 50 Taos............................ 53 88 55 88 / 30 20 30 30 Mora............................ 56 86 55 85 / 10 30 20 50 Espanola........................ 61 94 62 94 / 40 10 10 20 Santa Fe........................ 62 89 62 90 / 20 10 10 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 92 60 92 / 20 10 10 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 95 68 96 / 10 5 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 96 69 97 / 10 5 10 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 66 98 66 99 / 10 5 10 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 97 69 97 / 10 5 10 10 Belen........................... 65 98 65 100 / 5 5 5 5 Bernalillo...................... 67 98 67 98 / 10 5 10 10 Bosque Farms.................... 64 98 64 99 / 10 5 5 10 Corrales........................ 67 98 68 99 / 10 5 10 10 Los Lunas....................... 66 98 65 99 / 10 5 5 5 Placitas........................ 65 93 66 94 / 10 5 10 10 Rio Rancho...................... 68 97 68 98 / 10 5 10 10 Socorro......................... 68 100 69 101 / 5 10 5 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 90 63 91 / 10 10 10 20 Tijeras......................... 63 91 64 92 / 10 10 10 20 Edgewood........................ 58 92 60 93 / 10 10 10 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 94 56 94 / 10 10 10 20 Clines Corners.................. 60 90 59 90 / 5 20 10 20 Mountainair..................... 59 92 60 93 / 5 10 10 20 Gran Quivira.................... 60 91 61 92 / 0 10 5 20 Carrizozo....................... 67 95 67 97 / 0 5 10 20 Ruidoso......................... 62 88 63 89 / 0 10 10 30 Capulin......................... 57 87 56 85 / 20 40 40 60 Raton........................... 54 91 54 89 / 20 40 40 60 Springer........................ 55 93 56 91 / 20 30 30 60 Las Vegas....................... 57 89 55 87 / 10 30 20 50 Clayton......................... 65 97 63 92 / 20 30 50 50 Roy............................. 60 93 61 91 / 30 30 30 40 Conchas......................... 67 100 67 98 / 20 20 20 20 Santa Rosa...................... 66 97 66 96 / 10 10 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 68 102 68 99 / 10 10 20 20 Clovis.......................... 70 102 69 99 / 0 10 10 20 Portales........................ 71 103 68 101 / 0 10 10 20 Fort Sumner..................... 69 102 69 100 / 5 10 10 10 Roswell......................... 71 105 72 104 / 0 5 5 5 Picacho......................... 66 99 67 98 / 0 5 5 10 Elk............................. 63 96 64 96 / 0 5 5 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for NMZ238. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...44  034 FXUS65 KTFX 240603 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1203 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon capable of strong wind gusts up to 80 mph and marginally large hail, mainly east of I-15 ahead of a cold front. - Gusty winds behind a cold front this afternoon, with elevated fire weather conditions. - Generally near or above average temperatures this week with a few days of scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 602 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: Potent upper level troughing moving across the region today will bring an array of impacts, including strong to severe thunderstorms and elevated fire weather conditions. A cold front will be moving through today, which will delineate the transition between a more thunderstorm focused risk and fire weather risk. Ahead of the cold front ample moisture looks to coincide with daytime heating and forcing from the passing upper level disturbance to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly east of I- 15. Deep mixing and shear on the order of 30-40kts will support the risk for large hail with initial storms before the risk transitions to be more wind focused. Latest mesoanalysis features DCAPE in excess of 1200 J/Kg over the plains, which would support the risk for wind gusts approaching 80 mph in the strongest thunderstorms that form. While PWATs are still elevated, the deep inverted-V profiles will support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. Behind the cold front a period of breezy west winds is forecast to develop in most areas. The lowest portion of the atmosphere dries out quite quickly behind the front, which will allow for relative humidity to continue falling behind the front, even as temperatures cool. The combination of the breezy and dry conditions, as well as the potential for a few dry thunderstorms brings about an elevated fire weather risk across most of the region. Heading into Monday the upper system responsible for active weather today will exit eastward. Weak ridging builds in across the west in wake of this system, though with some lingering monsoonal moisture near the Idaho border between Monida and West Yellowstone, a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out by late afternoon. The rest of the region looks dry Monday. The upper level ridging more or less persists much of the upcoming week, but as it shifts slowly eastward an upper level trough approaching the Pacific NW will slowly allow for showers and thunderstorms to spread further and further northward across the region each day. -AM - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: The main source of uncertainty today is with respect to how ongoing convection over the plains north of Great Falls will modify the convective environment this afternoon. On one hand this activity may limit destabilization in some areas where forcing is greatest. Conversely this activity and associated outflow may serve as a focus for additional convective initiation mid-afternoon, resulting in perhaps a greater areal extent of convective activity. ADditionally, if this activity persists, it could eventually break the cap and intensify and become the main area of concern across the Hi-Line. Nonetheless, any thunderstorm that forms this afternoon will be capable of strong wind gusts, and at least briefly large hail. -AM && .AVIATION... 24/06Z TAF Period Wildfire smoke from the Camp Creek Fire will impact portions of North Central and Central Montana through the overnight hours. For most locations this will only impact slantwise visibility but surface-level visibility impacts are possible at KGTF and KLWT. Once northerly winds start to pick up after sunrise the plume of smoke is expected to be pushed further south which will help clear out KGTF/KLWT but may bring some slantwise visibility reductions towards KHLN. Breezy winds are expected again on Monday afternoon across the northern plains. Overnight there is a slight chance for fog developing around KWYS but confidence was not high enough to include it in the TAF. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of Southwest Montana late Monday into early Tuesday but confidence in any impacts to the terminals is low. Mountain obscuration will remain a concern where wildfire smoke is present and around any potential thunderstorm activity. For KGTF: Calm winds will continue through the night with periods of MVFR conditions expected through 24/17Z when the latest smoke models start pushing smoke away from KGTF as more northwesterly winds start to set up. Crosswinds are expected through the afternoon but the risk of seeing crosswinds over 15kts is currently at 20%. While slantwise visibility is expected to improve somewhat after 24/17Z, there is a possibility that smoke aloft may start to return later in the day depending on how the Camp Creek Fire behaves. Greater impacts to slantwise visibility may start to return after 24/22Z and last through the remainder of the evening. -thor && .FIRE WEATHER... A surface front will bring gusty westerly winds through the afternoon hours across the region. Widespread gusts over 35 mph are possible and will be enhanced by any thunderstorm activity that develops. Minimum RH values will be most critical in Southwest Montana where the RFW is currently in effect for Sunday afternoon and evening. Further north, conditions will be windy but not quite as dry. Additionally there is some disagreement in the latest models as to how the thunderstorms will develop and how widespread they will be. With this uncertainty in place the decision was made to hold off on issuing a RFW for North-Central Montana for now. But elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will be a concern across the entire region. Where thunderstorms do develop, the concerns will be frequent lightning and gusty/erratic winds which may lead to new fire starts and make new and/or existing fires difficult to contain. -thor && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 54 80 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 50 76 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 50 83 53 85 / 0 0 10 10 BZN 48 82 49 84 / 10 0 10 20 WYS 39 79 40 78 / 20 0 20 30 DLN 47 84 49 84 / 0 0 20 20 HVR 55 82 51 83 / 10 0 0 0 LWT 52 78 48 81 / 30 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  157 FXUS62 KRAH 240606 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 206 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * There is a Marginal to Slight Risk of severe storms over Sampson, Cumberland, and Wayne Counties this afternoon and early evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 206 AM Monday... 1) There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon to early evening along and east of the I-95 corridor. 2) Diurnally maximized convection returns to central NC as early as Wednesday, but more likely Thursday into Friday before shifting towards the coast through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 206 AM Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1... There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon to early evening along and east of the I-95 corridor. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a weak surface low developing over central SC, with a stalled cold front extending from the NC Coastal Plain into central SC. Dynamic guidance indicates the surface low will track east- northeast today into the Sandhills and central/southern Coastal Plain. As it does, the stalled front is expected to buckle westward, potentially reaching as far west as the Wake/Johnston county line. A sharp moisture gradient remains across the state: the 00z MHX sounding highlighted a very moist airmass over eastern NC, contrasted with much drier air at GSO (PWAT of ~0.85 inches). Surface dewpoints in the mid-70s along the coast underscore the high moisture content east of the boundary. An enhanced seabreeze interaction with the front and surface low will serve as the primary trigger for convective initiation, with resultant outflows likely driving secondary cell development. Spatial Focus & Model Guidance: The highest storm coverage is expected along and east of I-95, extending from the eastern Sandhills into the Coastal Plain. Most CAMs keep convective activity concentrated over the southern Coastal Plain (primarily Sampson and Wayne Counties). However, the RRFS represents a reasonable worst-case scenario, bringing convection as far west as the Harnett/Cumberland county line. While model spread leaves some uncertainty regarding exact western extent, the thermodynamic environment along and east of I-95 will easily support severe storms, characterized by MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg (highest in Sampson County) and 30 kts of deep-layer shear. Should storms initiate further north near RWI, effective shear could reach ~40 kts under the influence of an upper-level jet streak. Hazards: SPC expanded the Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms, focused mainly over Sampson and Wayne Counties. The primary hazard will be locally damaging wind gusts, although a secondary hail threat is also possible given straight hodographs. SPC has also maintained a 2-percent tornado risk, where a Slight Risk of severe now exists over far southern Sampson; given weak bulk low-level shear, any brief tornado threat would be strictly non- supercellular, tied to localized low-level vorticity stretching along the surface low/boundary. Should 12z guidance and AI model trends continue shifting westward, further expansion of the severe risk westward may become necessary. Drier, more comfortable conditions are expected Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the north. Lower dewpoints will maintain comfortable humidity levels across central NC. Isolated storm development will be largely suppressed, restricted to the sea breeze over Sampson or Cumberland counties. The aggressive HRRR solution was discounted in favor of global model consensus, which depicts a sufficiently stable airmass to prevent widespread activity. KEY MESSAGE 2... Diurnally maximized convection returns to central NC as early as Wednesday, but more likely Thursday intoFriday before shifting towards the coast through the weekend. A closed mid/upper level low over southern Quebec Tues morning will continue to slowly pivot east-northeast as another series of shortwaves parade across Great Lakes and southern Ontario through Fri. Moisture returns in the low lvls as early as Wed, with deeper moisture return on Thurs, although rich tropical moisture appears limited in duration as the mid/upper level flow turns west-northwest again over the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas by this weekend. Nevertheless, this should support diurnally driven convection as surface dew points in the 70s return and PWAT values rise back to around or slightly-above normal into the weekend. There may be some mixing out of dew points each afternoon, especially over the Piedmont back into the 60s which may limit the moderate instability to the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Thurs still appears to have the best chance for measurable precipitation with neutral H5 height tendencies and potential influence from any MCV's from upstream convection over the Ohio and Tennessee Valley's. Reasonable high-end totals for any given area will be around 1" to as much as +2" based on the 12z LREF. However, these amounts will not occur everywhere, as is the nature of summertime convection, with most locations likely to receive somewhere between trace amounts to 0.5". Slow evolving longwave troughing to the west will favor southwesterly moisture transport over the area as early as Wed and continuing into Thurs night. This pattern could be conditionally favorable for excessive rainfall anywhere but highly dependent on training storms to develop. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 206 AM Monday... VFR conditions will generally prevail across central NC terminals through the period, with the primary exception being KFAY. As a surface low tracks northward along a stalled front in eastern NC this morning, isolated showers and lingering low-level moisture could result in stratus or visibility reductions near KFAY. However, recent model runs have backed off on sub-VFR coverage, lowering overall confidence; the most likely window for brief sub-VFR conditions remains between 10z and 14z. Across the northern terminals (KGSO/KINT/KRDU), boundary-layer dewpoints mixing into the 50s Sunday afternoon should prevent morning visibility restrictions. This afternoon into the early evening, the surface low tracking northeast combined with a westward-buckling front and sea-breeze will bring a chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms near KFAY. While the RRFS/HRRR/FV3 show convection reaching near KFAY, the majority of CAM guidance keeps activity just east of the terminal, justifying a low-end PROB30 for now. Isolated storms are also possible near KRWI, but confidence is currently too low to introduce terminal restrictions. Outlook: Morning stratus and fog potential will be possible at KFAY/KRWI Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Convective coverage will increase midweek, peaking Thursday and Friday, with impacts potentially lingering into early Saturday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kren/Swiggett AVIATION...Kren  261 FXUS64 KJAN 240608 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 108 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous heat stress is expected across portions of the forecast area over the next several days. - Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts remain possible across southern portions of the area today and spreading northward through Tuesday. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 732 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 This evening into tonight... Evening analysis indicate ridging over the TX Panhandle to Desert Southwest while the Gulf Coast region remains in the unsettled trough/shear axis region. There remains a frontal zone settled north of Interstate 20. A pocket of drier air remains across the east to northern half of the area, with deeper moisture situated to the south of the stationary front. A few storms have developed on the southern fringes of the area, with the most robust development in north-central LA. The strongest Theta E advection/convergence is in the southwest and southeast, so convection coverage will remain very isolated. There is some deep layer shear around 20kts that could support some continued isolated severe storm threat into tonight. Threat potential probably winds down by 10-11PM. Heat and humidity is somewhat improving but still have a large portion of heat indices in excess of 95-100F degrees and temperatures still hovering above 88-95F degrees. Heat advisory continues through 8PM with additional heat concerns into Monday. Lows will remain seasonably warm (70-76F). Updates are out. /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 This afternoon through tonight: Hot/humid conditions will be ongoing through the afternoon. Dangerous heat conditions is expected with greatest heat stress over western/southern areas where heat indices reach 110 degrees are expected. Heat Advisory will remain in effect through 8pm. A weak, frontal boundary will provide the next storm chances along the HWY 84 corridor through the evening hours. A "Marginal" (1/5) risk for severe weather with damaging winds as the primary hazard. Monday through Saturday: As the boundary progress southward, a round of elevated convection will bring Monday pre-dawn rain chances to the Delta and central MS. Afternoon temps will briefly "cool" temps to the low/mid 90s with heat indices near 105. "Although temps will be in the low/mid 90s, a "Limited" (1/4) risk for heat stress is expected. An additional "Slight" (2/5) risk for severe weather is expected for Monday and "Marginal" (1/5) risk Tuesday afternoon/evening thanks to incoming weak disturbances. The risk area will gradually move northward towards the 1-20 corridor by Tuesday. High pressure will retrograde towards the Southwest CONUS with a trough axis setting up across the Southern CONUS. As a result, northwest flow across the area will allow the disturbances to increase afternoon rain chances through the end of the week. Although rain chances will be present, heat will still be a concern through the week. Heat and humidity will be on the rebound as heat indices begin to increase to 110 degrees west of I-55. Heat headlines and advisories will likely be needed as the week progress. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 All TAF sites are VFR tonight and this will continue through the morning hours. Showers/Storms will develop this afternoon and this will bring the potential for MVFR/IFR conditions to affected sites. The winds will mainly be light and variable outside of any thunderstorm activity./15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 95 73 93 73 / 50 40 50 0 Meridian 96 72 93 72 / 40 30 50 10 Vicksburg 95 74 9574 / 40 30 30 10 Hattiesburg 97 74 93 73 / 50 50 70 10 Natchez 98 76 96 75 / 30 20 20 0 Greenville 93 73 96 75 / 60 50 50 20 Greenwood 92 71 93 73 / 60 50 50 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ /15  684 FXUS62 KGSP 240612 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 212 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with the morning forecast package. The aviation forecast updated for the 06Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dry weather with comfortable humidity levels will continue through Tuesday. Then humidity increases along with daily shower and thunderstorm chances returning Wednesday and continuing through the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Dry weather with comfortable humidity levels will continue through Tuesday. Then humidity increases along with daily shower and thunderstorm chances returning Wednesday and continuing through the rest of the week. The upper pattern currently consists of a large anticyclone over New Mexico and an upper low over the eastern Great Lakes. Dry sfc high pressure will continue to nose in under the NWLY flow between these features today. The upper low will begin to shift east, allowing flow across the Southeast to flatten out Tuesday. No appreciable change in the air mass is expected thru Tuesday, with dewpts mixing out into the 50s to lower 60s under sunny or mostly sunny skies. No mentionable PoPs in the forecast thru Tuesday. Highs will be near normal. Overnight lows will be slightly below normal, given the lower dewpts and good radiational cooling conditions. A shortwave trough will dig into the Midwest on Wednesday and back the low- and mid-level flow out of the SW. A warm front will activate across the Deep South and start lifting northward, pushing into the forecast area by early Wednesday evening. This will likely trigger convection, as guidance is in good agreement on dewpts in the mid 60s to lower 70s along/south of the boundary, with at least 1000-2000 J/kg of sbCAPE. So expect a return of showers and thunderstorms in the late aftn and evening, roughly from south to north across the forecast area. Convection may linger well into the night, if there is enough instability along the advancing front. The upper trough reaches its highest amplitude on Thursday, with its axis still just west of the Appalachians. This will likely result in continued moist SWLY flow and an active convective day Thursday. There is some uncertainty on when the peak activity will occur, as widespread cloud cover may delay destabilization until later in the day. The NBM still has likely PoPs across the Piedmont and categorical PoPs in the mountains. From there, the pattern starts to flatten out again, but lingering upper-level troughiness is shown in the guidance over the eastern CONUS thru the weekend. So, expect typical diurnal PoPs to continue each day thru the end of the period. Other than Thursday, with the cloud cover and precip coverage, holding temps down, temps will be near to slightly above normal, with some guidance trending toward hotter conditions possibly returning Sunday into Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR expected across the area, except for mountain valley fog, which may impact KAVL around the 08-12z time frame. Some cirrus lingers through the day with periods of areas of high-based Cu. Light wind overnight, toggling to W across the Upstate this aftn, then back to N/NE this evening. Winds pick up with a few low-end gusts possible at KAVL late aftn. Outlook: No significant chance of convection until Wednesday with an even better chance Thursday into Friday. Mountain valley fog and low stratus is possible each morning. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ ARK  780 FXUS66 KHNX 240614 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1114 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Triple digit heat continues for San Joaquin Valley and Mojave Desert. 50 to 60 percent for Major Heat Risk in the Southern San Joaquin Valley at the start of this week. Heat Advisory issued valid Monday through Wednesday 2. A 5 to 15 percent probability for extreme heat risk in the Mojave Desert toward the end of the week and starting September. Extreme Heat Warning issued valid Monday through Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Little change in the current synoptic pattern is expected as we enter a new week. A ridge of high pressure is currently situated over the Four Corners region of the desert southwest which will continue to keep the warmer, above average temperatures present across much of Central California. Each day through at least Wednesday, there is a 90 to 100 percent probability for temperatures to exceed 100 degrees in the southern San Joaquin Valley, mainly from Fresno southward. For the north valley areas, there is a 50 to 60 percent probability. Meanwhile in the south valley, there is an 80 to 90 percent probability for overnight lows to exceed 70 degrees, primarily in the foothill areas where the thermal belt is at its strongest and in the urban areas where the heat island effect will take hold. Due to both of these factors, widespread Moderate Heat Risk is expected across the valley, with some areas of Major Heat Risk. A Heat Advisory has been issued for the southern San Joaquin Valley valid from Monday through Wednesday evening. Over the same time frame, temepratures in the Mojave Desert have an 80 to 90 percent probability to exceed 105 degrees in the afternoons and a 70 to 80 percent probability for overnight lows to exceed 75 degrees for the communities of Inyokern, Mojave, and Ridgecrest. An Extreme Heat Warning has been issued for the desert areas also from Monday through Wednesday evening. While still around a week away, there are indications in NBM cluster analysis that a trough will drop south into the Pacific northwest region. As of now, the trough is not expected to move into central California, however the influence of the trough may have an effect on the local temperatures, cooling the region down near season averages as the flow begins to prevail from the west. However, dry conditions will remain. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevailing for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning from 5 AM Monday to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ337>339. Heat Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ304>316. && $$ public/aviation...McCoy weather.gov/hanford  897 FXUS61 KALY 240616 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 216 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated to scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms today and tomorrow will bring additional light, beneficial rainfall primarily to higher terrain areas. 2) Showers and thunderstorm potential increases once again for the end of the week but no significant impacts are expected at this time. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... An upper-level cut-off low and associated surface cyclone will gradually track overhead before departing to the north and east Tuesday night. Persistent cool, cyclonic flow will generate a lake and upslope response such that isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur today and Tuesday. Most of this convection will be confined to the higher elevations of the Southern Adirondacks and Southern Greens, but isolated showers and storms could drift into or develop in the Upper- Hudson, Capital, Taconic, Berkshire, and Eastern Catskill regions. This will be more likely on Tuesday as a surface trough and shortwave aloft rotate about the bases of the departing cyclones. Generally, rainfall from these showers and storms will be light as moisture is limited. Additionally, given limited instability; weak shear; and weakening lapse rates through peak heating hours, any thunderstorm will likely be brief and have limited vertical growth. Therefore, there are no concerns for flash flooding or storms to become severe. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure builds back in from the west on Wednesday, yielding a return to regionwide dry conditions. However, the tranquility will not be long lasting as chances for showers and thunderstorms increase once again for the end of the work week. Another cut-off low looks to develop early Thursday morning, but this time well to our north such that a broad trough extends south into the Ohio Valley and gradually moves east into our area. An associated surface low then looks to send a series of boundaries through eastern New York and western New England through Friday, yielding potentially multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Confidence is not yet high regarding the severe weather potential given inexact timing and evolutionary details. However, given the projection of weak deep-layer shear and a potentially early onset of showers on Thursday morning, it's safe to say at this point that the overall severe threat Thursday is low. Friday could be the better day for severe weather potential given increased forcing with the passage of a cold front and upper-level shortwave. One limiting factor is the weak shear portrayed in the current guidance. But, should this increase, increased instability and steeper lapse rates also portrayed in some of the guidance could give Friday a greater potential for severe thunderstorms. We will continue to monitor trends going forward. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Breaks in the cloud cover, high dewpoints and light to calm winds have resulted in the development of IFR/LIFR radiational fog at KPSF and KGFL. Through daybreak, this fog is expected to continue at these sites with visibility frequently in the 1/4SM to 1SM range. A brief period of MVFR mist cannot be ruled out at KPOU and KALB for a few hours just prior to and around sunrise, but a larger T/TD spread should help from fog being as dense as the other sites. Any morning fog/mist should dissipate by 12z, allowing for VFR conditions to return for all sites. It looks to be VFR through the day on Monday, with sct cigs around 5-8 kft becoming bkn towards the afternoon hours. South to southwest winds around 5 kts in the morning will become 5-10 kts by the afternoon hours. There could be a passing brief light rain shower for Monday evening into Monday night, otherwise, flying conditions will continue to be VFR for all sites with bkn cigs around 4-6 kft and light south to southwest winds. Outlook... Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...27  881 FXUS64 KMAF 240616 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 116 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 115 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Hot temperatures continue through midweek with record heat possible on Monday. - The prolonged period of hot temperatures could result in heat related illnesses. Be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in air conditioning or the shade if possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 115 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 We will reach the peak of this heatwave today as the upper high centers directly over the region. Model guidance continues to be a bit high given 850 mb temps of 30-34C. With that said, it will still be dangerously hot with almost all locations above 100 degrees. The warmest temperatures will occur across the NE Permian Basin and along the Pecos River where highs will be 105-109 degrees. The Heat Advisory was expanded to include most of the Permian Basin and all of SE NM. The record high temperature for today at Midland is 103 degrees, which was set in 1936 and there is a good chance we will at least tie, if not break that record. Very little changes Tuesday as the upper ridge slowly begins to slide west. Temperatures may come down a degree, but we will be at day 8 in a row of 100 degree temperatures so the heat is really wearing down folks. Heat Advisories are likely to be extended given this concern. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 115 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 The upper ridge continues to shift west and centers over the AZ/NM state line by Wednesday. This will place our region in NW flow aloft and open the door for thunderstorms to move off the NM mountains and into our area late in the day. Scattered storms are again possible Thursday before the ridge moves back overhead and subsidence increases. Hot conditions will continue, but highs look to stay just under 100 for most locations Thursday/Friday. Hotter conditions return for the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1019 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in weak return flow, w/a few high clouds. A few high-based cu are anticipated beginning late Monday morning invof KHOB. Convective temps elsewhere look too high. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 106 76 105 75 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 105 75 104 74 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 104 74 103 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 103 74 102 74 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 96 72 97 71 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 104 72 103 71 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 97 64 97 63 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 103 76 102 76 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 104 77 102 76 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 106 76 104 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for Andrews-Borden-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Martin- Midland-Mitchell-Scurry-Winkler. NM...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...99  995 FXUS63 KABR 240619 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 119 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for portions of south central and northeastern SD this afternoon and evening and a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for the remainder of central and northeast SD into west central MN. The main hazards include golf ball size hail and 60-75 mph wind gusts. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 117 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 As of 1 AM CDT, storms are staying in western SD and out of our forecast area. Temperatures are in the 60s with winds out of the east to southeast at around 10 mph. A warm front followed by a cold front will move across the region throughout the day and into the evening hours. This warm front will help temperatures be a little warmer today with highs in the 80s to low 90s, warmest across central SD. The cold front will help pop off some thunderstorms this evening across central SD that will move southeast and across the area. There could be a second wave that moves down out of North Dakota closer to midnight Tuesday morning. There is a Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for portions of south central SD and portions of northeastern SD and a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms across the remainder of the forecast area. The main hazards for these storms will be golf ball size hail and 60-75 mph wind gusts. PWAT values are around 1.25" which is in the 97th NAEFS percentile so some brief heavy downpours are possible as well, although as a secondary threat. Overall chance of storms is 30-40% with the first round along the Missouri River and east to the James River. With the second round after midnight, chances across far northeastern SD increase to 40-60%. Our next widespread chance for storms will be Thursday evening into Friday as a low coming off the Rockies pushes out high pressure. Saturday and Sunday evenings could be stormy as well as we return to a more active pattern, but confidence on severe weather is low at this time. Temperatures after today return to right about normal, with a slight increase towards the end of the period. Winds Tuesday behind the cold front could gust up to 35 mph in northern SD. That cold front also looks to bring another round of elevated smoke to the area for Tuesday. There could be a band of higher concentrations over northeast SD, but little to no smoke is expected at the surface. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...20  231 FXAK67 PAJK 240621 AAA AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Juneau AK 1021 PM AKDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .UPDATE...For 06z TAF Issuance. && .AVIATION...Southern panhandle remains the main source of aviation problems as heavy rain and increasing winds will continue overnight into early Monday morning. The primary concerns will be lowered VIS due to heavier rain as well as CIGs dropping to AoB 1000 ft, with periods of LIFR conditions expected from Wrangell and Petersburg southwards before improvement later in the morning Monday. Despite some improvement, MVFR and IFR conditions will still be rather widespread south of Sumner Strait. North of Frederick Sound, offshore flow has provided generally VFR conditions and this should continue into Monday morning before rain gradually spreads northward with a chance to bring MVFR conditions. Patchy fog is possible around Yakutat through the early morning hours depending on if higher clouds clear out. Only significant surface winds are also expected down in the southern panhandle still, with gusts up to around 25 kt as of this discussion. Strongest winds are expected between 6z and 12z over the far southern panhandle, with gusty winds near Dixon Entrance and up into Misty Fjords. Some speed shear is likely overnight over southern Clarence as southeasterly winds progressively increase from the surface up to 2000 ft ASL. Wind conditions improve into Monday as the main winds from the system move into Canada. && .PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT...346 PM AKDT Sun Aug 23 2026 SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - An atmospheric river moves into the southern panhandle Sunday evening, bringing moderate rain and periods of heavy rain. - Clearing for the northern half of the panhandle by Monday afternoon. More breaks in the clouds on Tuesday. - Onshore flow continues through Wednesday and Thursday, with continued rain chances. More clearing possible Friday. SHORT TERM...Main area of interest continues to be the atmospheric river moving into the southern panhandle, primarily impacting Ketchikan, Metlakatla, and Misty Fjords. Satellite imagery of incoming moisture continue to show stout precipitable water of around 1.2 inches. This combined with estimated aloft winds shows IVT values exceeding 500 kg/ms. This plume, along with freezing levels exceeding 10000 ft, is expected to bring a majority of the heavy rain for the aforementioned areas. The warm front associated with this system is currently around the Kake area, and is expected to stall, as the stronger shortwave wraps around the upper level parent low in the gulf. Main changes to the forecast is the tightening up of heaviest rainfall, now primarily between 4 PM today and 4 AM tomorrow morning. A secondary shortwave is starting to look increasingly likely, moving up from the south along Dixon Entrance Monday into Monday night. Currently have this as moderate rain, but could see pocket of heavy rain, particularly for Metlakatla. Another change is how far the strong shortwave tonight will push northward on Monday. Confidence has increased that most areas will at least see some rainfall, including in Haines and Skagway during the morning to early afternoon hours. Not expecting a large impact, as a majority of the moisture will be drained as it moves northward, as well as the waves losing upper level support. Rain amounts are mostly unchanged through Monday afternoon, although the secondary wave will need to be monitored closely to adjust. From the previous discussion: likely to see around 2.5 to 3.5 inches of rain in 24 hours, with isolated areas seeing up to or more than 4 inches. There is even a slight chance for the aforementioned areas to see those higher rates to around 4 inches in 24 hours. LONG TERM.../Wednesdaythrough Saturday/... A broad upper-level trough continues to make its way across the panhandle Wednesday and Thursday, which is likely to drive an active, wetter pattern through the middle of the week. Low level troughing, that looks to build off of western Alaska, and the moisture associated with it push eastward across the gulf early Wednesday morning which is expected to bring wide spread rain to the panhandle on Wednesday afternoon. Rain is likely to last through most of the day on Thursday before the main frontal boundary shifts east. There is a chance for an area of high pressure to build sometime early in the day Friday which could bring a brief period of clearing, especially over the northern panhandle. Confidence in rain chances then increases later in the day on Friday as another front approaches the panhandle from across the the gulf. Rain is expected to persist through the rest of the period. Rain accumulations through the period are expected to be light to moderate, with coastal locations likely to receive higher rainfall totals. Temperatures are likely to be in the upper 50s to 60s with low diurnal ranges due to constant cloud cover. AVIATION...Southern panhandle is the main source of aviation problems tonight. A wet front will be bringing mainly low vis and ceilings for many areas due to rain from Frederick Sound southward. Lowest conditions will be over the Wrangell, Ketchikan, Misty Fjords, and Annette Island area overnight with vis as low as 2 to 3 miles and ceilings down to 500 to 1000 ft. There might be a little improvement Monday but MVFR and IFR conditions will still be rather widespread south of Sumner Strait. Farther north, more offshore flow will cause conditions to improve the farther N and W you go tonight into Monday. VFR conditions will be more likely encountered north of Frederick Sound and skies will likely have significant breaks in the cloud cover NW of Dry Bay. As for winds, Surface winds will be gusty south of Sumner Strait overnight. Clarance Strait, Misty Fjords, Ketchikan, and Annette Island in particular could see SE gusts to 30 kt. Winds aloft in the vicinity of Ketchikan and Annette Island will not be much better with SE winds up to 35 to 40 kt at 2000 ft ASL, so expect a little low level speed shear overnight and possible turbulence. Wind conditions improve into Monday as the main winds from the system move into Canada. MARINE...Outer Waters: Low pressure will move across the eastern portions of the Gulf through tonight. In advance of it, winds will become mainly southeasterly and gradually increase. We still expect a weak barrier jet to form along the northeast Gulf coast early today and then slowly weaken. By late afternoon and early evening, winds will generally turn more northeasterly. Around Dixon Entrance, we also expect a rather significant increase in wind speeds to around 25-30 kts, with higher gusts. Seas will also build in that area to around 8 feet before subsiding after 15Z Monday as winds decrease. Inner Channels: Although there continue to be a few differences in the model solutions, especially in regard to the timing of the incoming system and frontal passage, it still appears that the most significant increase in winds will affect mainly Sumner Strait southward. Wind gusts to 35 kt are possible in Clarence Strait tonight with seas forecast to build to 8 feet. As the low pressure and front pass later Monday, winds and seas will gradually diminish. Elsewhere across the inner channels, winds are expected to remain generally 10 knots or less into Monday, except for parts of Lynn Canal where winds around 15 knots are possible at times. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036. && $$ UPDATE...STJ SHORT TERM...NC LONG TERM...AGP AVIATION...EAL MARINE...Ferrin HYDROLOGY...Ferrin Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  047 FXUS61 KRLX 240620 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 220 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Not much change in forecast thinking. Main forecast concerns over the next few days will be morning fog Tuesday/Wednesday and potential for thunderstorms ahead of a cold front Thursday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) High pressure building overhead brings dry, pleasant conditions through Wednesday, though river valley fog will create localized travel hazards late tonight and Tuesday night across valley locations. 2.) Scattered strong thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail are possible Thursday afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front depending on timing. 3.) Lingering shower chances accompany a secondary cold front passage on Friday, followed by dry weather and near-normal temperatures for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A stacked low pressure system situated north of the Great Lakes will weaken and lift northeastward today while surface high pressure slowly works overhead by Tuesday morning. Light northwest inflow around the building high will maintain comfortable humidity levels and slightly below-normal temperatures today. A few light showers across northern West Virginia will exit early this morning as mid-level clouds clear from southwest to northeast. As surface high pressure settles directly overhead tonight and upper-level flow flattens, light winds and clear skies will promote strong radiational cooling. River valley fog is expected to develop after midnight. Another round of valley fog is expected late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning under light synoptic flow. KEY MESSAGE 2... By Thursday morning, low pressure moving north of the Great Lakes will extend a cold front across the lower Ohio Valley and into the southern Plains. Low-level moisture pooling ahead of the boundary will push surface dewpoints back into the lower 60s across the lowlands, supporting modest surface-based instability. Deep-layer vertical shear of 25 to 30KTs will be sufficient for updraft storm organization. Given a dry mid-level layer between H850 and H700 and steepening lapse rates, downdraft momentum transport and hail survival will be enhanced, supporting a threat for localized damaging wind gusts and hail. At this point it seems like the most likely location for this would be across the middle Ohio Valley and points west (largely keeping the threat out of us). However, the exact location and timing of the highest instability axis remain unclear. KEY MESSAGE 3... A secondary cold front is scheduled to cross the region on Friday. Dynamic lift and lingering moisture beneath the trough axis will support scattered showers and isolated non-severe thunderstorms, primarily focused during peak afternoon heating. In the wake of Friday's boundary, high zonal flow will overspread the region through the weekend. High pressure sliding across the Great Lakes will bring a return of dry conditions, light surface winds, and near-seasonal temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions prevail across most terminals early this morning, though lingering clouds and light showers traversing northern West Virginia near CKB and EKN will gradually clear through 12Z. Winds remain light and variable overnight. Any isolated fog through daybreak Monday will remain brief and patchy. A VFR cumulus field develops by late morning around 4000 to 5000ft with westerly surface winds picking up to 6 to 10KTs, before diminishing after 22Z. Surface high pressure settling overhead tonight will produce ideal radiation conditions with calm winds and clear skies. Dense river valley fog will form rapidly after 06Z Tuesday, IFR and VLIFR visibilities and ceilings to favored valley locations. Fog will burn off rapidly between 12Z and 13Z Tuesday, yielding widespread VFR for the remainder of the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief shallow fog possible this morning in the wake of light rain/clearing conditions. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 08/24/26 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H L L L L M M L H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M L M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... Valley fog likely Tuesday and Wednesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP AVIATION...JP  410 FXUS63 KGLD 240623 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1223 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another chance for storms this evening. 1-1.5 inch hail and 55-70 MPH winds are the primary threats. - Better chance for severe weather on Tuesday, with all hazards possible. - Above normal temperatures through at least mid week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1222 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 A 500 mb high over New Mexico paired with a low over the Great Lakes regions keeps the Tri-State area under fairly persistent northwesterly flow. This will let temperatures warm up into the 90s, potentially briefly 100 degrees today, and low 90s tomorrow. More importantly, this give us daily chance at convection. Early this morning easterly winds east of U.S. 83 may provide enough up-slope cooling to produce some patchy fog across the CWA. There's only a ~10% chance visibility drop below a mile in the fog, but isolated patches of dense fog are not impossible. Throughout the day, we will have a weak surface low moving over the CWA, leading to fairly weak and variable winds. We could still see some gusts up to 20-25 kts, but these should be rare. Around 23-01Z this afternoon, our next round of convection looks to be entering the CWA from the west, driven by a 500 mb shortwave trough. The setup today is similar to yesterday's, and storms may not occur in our area. However, there is better forcing today than Sunday had, leading to a 50% chance of storms occurring in the CWA. Scattered to clusters of supercells seem to be the likely mode. The more isolated a cell is, the better chance is will have to be severe, but there's a 60% chance storms cluster together early and would likely only muster 50-70 MPH winds and 0.75-1.5 inch hail. If an isolated cell matures ahead of other convection, we could see 2.5 inch hail, a microburst of 80 MPH, and a brief tornado. Potential for this occurring is less than 5%. There is also a 25% chance of flash flooding from either training storms or right/left moving storms, as these motions are around 15-20 kts. The bulk of the convection looks to remain west of KS 27. All in all, storms are likely, but there is only a small, conditional threat of high-end severe weather. Most likely area to see the severe storms would be near and north of the Tri-State border. Convection looks to end around 6-9Z, and then temperatures will drop into the mid 60s, again. There is a growing potential that convection will persist until closer to 12-15Z Tuesday morning. If this occurs, temperatures may remain capped in the upper 80s and the afternoon severe threat may not occur. Current probability of this happening is around 40%. Confidence has increased in this solution as more guidance is showing this, leaving the lower levels a mess for Tuesday evening, lowering the potential for highly organized convection. However, the potential for widespread convection Tuesday evening is still a threat, so let's discuss it. Most likely start time for the "main show" will be around 22-0Z. A cold front will be draped across the CWA, running from near McCook, NE to around Kit Carson, CO when convection looks to initiate. In the first couple hours of convection, isolated storms are favored before becoming a cluster, or even QLCS moving to the southeast. Isolated storms will have a better chance at producing hail in the 1.5-2.5 inch range, but will be less likely to produce winds above 65 MPH. As the system matures, the hail threat lowers, but the wind threat increases. As clusters or a line forms, winds up to 80 MPH are possible, while hail would top out around 1.75 inches. There will be a low, but persistent tornado threat through the event. Convection would likely clear our areaaround 9Z. There are still a lot of unknowns about Tuesday's severe weather, including placement of the front when it fires and how much early morning convection disturbs the environment. Lows Tuesday night look to cool a little more, behind the cold front, down closer to 60s for most of the CWA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1244 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Synoptically, the ridge to the west is forecast to mainly remain stationary over the Four Corners region, keeping us in northwesterly flow throughout the period. Guidance indicates the ridge may begin to amplify on Wednesday, and begin to de-amplify come Friday as a trough moves through the US/Canadian Border. Shortwaves are expected to move through the area during the week and into the weekend, increasing precipitation chances. High temperatures for the period will generally remain in the 90s. Wednesday appears to be the "coolest" day, with highs ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s. Saturday is forecast to be the warmest, with highs in the upper 90s and the potential for a few locations to reach the low 100s. If the ridge begins to move eastward, then higher than forecasted temperatures could be seen. Winds are expected to remain calm to breezy throughout the period. Precipitation chances are present throughout the period. Wednesday and Thursday hold the highest potential, with PoPs in the 20-50% range, as shortwaves move through the area during the afternoon and evening hours. While instability and shear parameters appear sufficient for severe storms, model guidance suggests some variability in CAPE and shear values, which could lead to less organized storms and reduced severe chances. Precipitation chances then begins to taper off to 5-25% for Friday through Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1150 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period at both KGLD and KMCK. Winds will start the period primarily out of the south at both airports, but will begin to rotate clockwise throughout the period for KGLD. Winds for KMCK will become more easterly during the mid-afternoon hours today. There is a small probability for fog to develop at KMCK (10%) from about 09-12z, and would be most likely if cloud cover can clear out and allow for radiational cooling. Both KGLD and KMCK have a risk for thunderstorms toward the end of the TAF period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...Holdren AVIATION...Davis  256 FXUS63 KMQT 240621 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 221 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect today for the shoreline of Alger County due to strong winds and high waves creating dangerous rip currents and swimming conditions. - Fog is possible across much of the central and eastern U.P. tonight. - The next chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms arrives in the west on Tuesday, spreading east overnight and Wednesday before ending for most late Wednesday. - Generally seasonable temperatures are expected through the rest of this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 With clear skies overhead this morning, observation stations are already showing temperatures dropping into the 40s and even mid to upper 30s across the western half of the U.P., with the Baraga Plains RAWS site already down to 37F as of 1 AM EDT. Should this trend hold, there could be multiple spots in the western interior U.P. that see lows bottom out in the mid to potentially even lower 30s, allowing patchy frost to form (particularly elevated sfcs). In addition, there could be some patchy fog over the far west as warm air advection aloft moves overhead, but confidence on fog occurrence is still somewhat low even now given the lack of it being seen upstream in northern WI and MN on satellite. After the sun rises today, expect fairly calm and quiet weather as high pressure ridging moves overhead. While we should be warmer than we were yesterday, with antecedent cooler air taking time to move out of the area, thinking highs will generally stay within the 70s. Gusty NW winds over Lake Superior will keep dangerous waves and rip currents over the beaches of Alger County today, so another Beach Hazard Statement is in effect throughout the entirety of today over there. The swimming conditions along the Marquette County shoreline are better today due to the shore's geometry protecting it somewhat from NW'rly winds. Nevertheless, some rip currents and hazardous waves are still expected along the beaches of Marquette County, so swimmers should still exercise caution and not get into the water unless they are experienced swimmers as the rip currents and waves could still tire out people fast. Moving into tonight, expect the generally quiet weather to continue as clouds build in from the west with time via an approaching Clipper low. Given the continuing WAA, lows tonight are expected to not be as cool as they are this morning; that being said, some of the coldest spots in the interior central and east could drop down into the mid to upper 30s thanks to mostly clear skies for the overnight hours. In addition, with WAA continuing in the lower to mid-levels of the atmosphere, some fog is possible over mainly the interior central and east tonight as temperatures cool to around the dewpoint. Should the fog form, we could see visibilities of 1/2 mile or less, which could create traveling/visibility concerns for the morning commute for those going to work and/or school. Our next shot of rainfall looks to arrive over the western U.P. on Tuesday as the Clipper approaches. While global/medium range guidance is more reserved on the start time of the rainfall, some of the CAMs do show showers starting as early as the mid-to-late morning hours over the far west given the modest isentropic lift moving into the area. That being said, with not much diurnal instability to work with, I have my doubts as to rain chances starting that early. Therefore, have the precipitation chances capped at around 30% between 8 AM and 2 PM EDT over the west half on Tuesday. As better diurnal instability develops over the area and a LLJ develops and brings some support by the afternoon hours, shower and thunderstorm chances increase over the west half. While the best shearing and helicity are projected to be south of us in northern WI, thinking it may not be totally out of the realm of possibility for a stronger (but sub-severe) thunderstorm or two to occur. As the showers and storms continue and spread into the rest of the U.P. Tuesday night and Wednesday, expect the rainfall chances to become maximized to ~80 to 90% as the low's center moves through Lake Superior. The additional forcing from the low with PWATS 1.25 to 1.50 inches could bring heavy rainfall at times, although QPF guidance is fairly muted for the most part on rain totals with this event. Therefore, while it does seem like most, if not all, of the U.P. will see at least some rainfall, given the convective nature of the precipitation not everyone will see similar amounts; as of now, the NBM currently has a 50 to 99% of a quarter inch of rainfall occurring between Tuesday morning and Thursday morning, with the greatest chances over the east and interior west whereas the lowest chances are in the south central. The rainfall chances look to generally end over the area by late Wednesday as the Clipper lifts northeast towards James Bay. However, some CAA behind the low could kick-off some light lake effect rain showers over the area on Thursday, but accumulations would be very small as high pressure builds in from the west once more. High pressure ridging returns to the U.P. once again by Friday, allowing for dry weather to return to the area. Moving into this upcoming weekend there really isn't a good signal for the precipitation chances as some upper level ridging continues to build into the area, even as troughing starts to move back in at the sfc late this upcoming weekend. Nevertheless, expect the seasonable temperatures to continue on from this week on into next week as medium range guidance hints at a somewhat more active pattern continuing into early September. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A surface ridge will build over the region tonight into Monday bringing fair weather. Winds will be mainly light except for gusts to 20kt at SAW during the mid-morning through early afternoon as mixing increases. A lake breeze will bring a wind shift to the northeast during the afternoon at SAW, ending the potential for wind gusts from mixing. && .MARINE... Issued at 221 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Northwest winds of 20 to 30 knots over Lake Superior and 20 to 25 knots over northern Green Bay and northwest Lake MI slowly dwindle to 15 knots or less by this evening as the center of high pressure ridging finally arrives over the area. However, as a Clipper low approaches Lake Superior on Tuesday, expect winds to pick up from the south over Lake MI, Green Bay, and eastern Lake Superior, with gusts of 20 to 30 knots being seen by Tuesday evening. In addition to the winds, showers and storms begin moving over western Lake Superior on Tuesday, continuing through the rest of the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday night through Wednesday before generally wrapping-up late Wednesday as the Clipper lifts towards James Bay. As this occurs, expect the winds to slowly become westerly, first over Lake Superior Wednesday morning before shifting westward over northern Green Bay and northwest Lake MI by Wednesday evening. As this occurs, expect the winds to die-down to 15 knots or less over northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake MI, whereas westerly winds of 20 to 25 knots continue over Lake Superior. CAA behind the Clipper is expected to veer the winds to the northwest, keeping the 20 to 25 knot winds over at least the eastern half of Lake Superior on Thursday as northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots develop over northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake MI. As high pressure builds in from the west late this week, expect the winds to die-down to 15 knots or less again by Thursday evening and to remain light into at least this upcoming weekend if not potentially longer. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MIZ006. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TAP AVIATION...NL MARINE...TAP  370 FXUS64 KSHV 240623 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 123 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 123 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - An increase in showers and thunderstorms after daybreak this morning across Southeast Arkansas and Eastern Louisiana will result in cooler temperatures and some spotty much needed rainfall for these areas today. - Oppressive heat will continue elsewhere across the region today, despite an increase in elevated cloud cover and isolated showers and thunderstorms. Thus, the Heat Advisory remains in effect today for McCurtain County Oklahoma, East Texas, extreme Southwest Arkansas, Western and Central Louisiana. - The oppressive heat will return areawide Tuesday and continue through much of this week, although daytime temperatures should slowly back away from the century mark across Southwest Arkansas and North Louisiana by late week as the potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms return. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 123 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 The early morning sfc analysis indicates a weak inverted sfc trough extending from the Red River Valley of Srn OK into extreme NE TX to along the AR/LA line, although this bndry will remain inactive overnight before slowly returning back N later this morning. However, this may be short-lived as a weak perturbation aloft begins to slide SE across NE OK and the Ozarks into the Mid-South region overnight, which should enhance increasing convection development especially as a 30-40kt SWrly LLJ feeds better forcing into these areas. Thus, convection should deepen by/after daybreak over Nrn/Ern AR and slide SE into the Lower MS Valley, which should tap into stronger heating/instability farther S as the convection shifts into Ern LA/much of MS. Despite the increasing cloud cover, believe that daytime temps should climb at least into the lower/mid 90s by afternoon over these areas, yielding sufficient instability within a high moisture environment characteristic of PW's of 1.8-1.9 inches. Thus, isolated strong to severe storms with the potential for damaging downburst winds will be possible mainly over the ECntrl LA, with convection expected to be more isolated farther W across SW AR/Wrn LA. Did expand the NBM pops back W to accommodate some of the HREF solutions, with the thickening cloud cover/increasing convection resulting in cooler temperatures over more of NCntrl LA than previously forecast. As a result, have cancelled the Heat Advisory today for Claiborne, Lincoln, Union, and Ouachita Parishes, although criteria will be more marginal farther SE into ECntrl LA which may see criteria by late morning/early afternoon before the convection/outflow cools these areas. Despite some elevated cigs farther W, temps should again near/exceed the triple digits again especially over E TX/Wrn LA, with heat indices ranging from 105-110 degrees. Any isolated remnant convection should end by early this afternoon, although overnight cooling will remain limited given the persistent elevated cigs and S winds. Even with the ridge center mainly unchanged over NM/far W TX Tuesday, and some elevated cigs lingering through the afternoon, the oppressive heat will continue and expand back areawide, with the string of triple digits expected to continue across E TX in the least, with heat indices again ranging from 105-110 degrees. The Heat Advisory will likely be extended/expanded back E again Tuesday by the day shift to highlight the major heat impacts, even as the potential remains for isolated convection mainly in the morning for Srn AR and ECntrl LA. The progs continue to suggest that the ridge center will begin to retrograde farther W into the Desert SWfor mid and late week, resulting in a better defined NW flow regime over the region. While triple digits should be widespread again Wednesday even with isolated convection possible across the Ern zones in the afternoon, convection may increase Wednesday night with the approach of another weakness aloft that will slide SSE around the ridge, and linger across E TX/N LA Thursday. The increasing cloud cover and convection should finally result in "cooler" daytime temps away from the century mark Thursday, which may carry over into Friday even as the weakness aloft shifts farther S into coastal SE TX/S LA. However, above normal temps and mostly dry conditions will continue over the region through the remainder of the extended, as the riding aloft begins to expand back E into the area and Lower MS Valley/Mid-South region. 15 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 123 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 For the 24/06Z TAF period, VFR conditions should prevail across all but the eastern third of our airspace where late morning, afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could possibly impact the ELD and MLU terminals. Across the remainder of our airspace, increasing ceilings near 8kft or higher will spread from north to south across our airspace with ceilings a little harder to come by across our NE TXK terminals. Convection should dissipate across our eastern half towards the very end of this TAF period. Look for mostly S to SW winds near 10kts with some higher gusts across our airspace with the exception of the TXK/ELD and MLU terminals where winds will be mostly variable, at least through mid morning. 13 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 123 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Spotter activation may be needed today across portions of Northcentral Louisiana for the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging downburst winds. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 100 79 100 79 / 20 10 10 0 MLU 92 75 97 75 / 60 20 20 0 DEQ 95 72 101 72 / 20 10 10 0 TXK 97 77 99 76 / 20 10 10 0 ELD 92 74 98 74 / 40 20 20 0 TYR 105 79 102 79 / 0 10 10 0 GGG 104 78 102 78 / 10 10 10 0 LFK 102 77 100 76 / 0 10 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-059-070-071. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>003-010>013- 017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...13  653 FXUS61 KBGM 240626 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 226 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... PoPs were increased early this morning with a band of showers rotating through mainly before daybreak. PoPs were also increased along with shower coverage this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon with lake enhancement expected. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers are expected to continue into Tuesday, most numerous across Central NY with some lake enhancement. 2) High pressure builds in for a brief lull in wet weather Tuesday night into Wednesday, then additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to return Thursday into Friday before drying back out heading into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A broad upper level trough remains over the region today with a closed low off to our north that will slowly drift east into western Quebec. A potent shortwave embedded in the flow will swing through the area early this morning and help drawn in some noticeably cooler air. As this feature moves through, some light showers are expected to accompany it prior to daybreak. Southwesterly flow will become more westerly this afternoon, and northwesterly into Tuesday, tapping into lake moisture. With cool air aloft this afternoon, steepening low-level lapse rates, and up to a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, scattered showers are expected to develop, most widespread from the Twin Tiers on north. Some small hail can't be ruled out in the heaviest of showers. Lake effect rain showers are expected to become more concentrated north of the Southern Tier tonight before northwesterly flow Tuesday and lake enhancement with another upper level shortwave rotating through along the base of the departing upper trough spreads showers farther south and east once again. PoPs were increased from the NBM across the Twin Tiers both this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon as the NBM tends to be underdone with shower coverage and not far enough SE in this set up. It will be quite cool today with highs in the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Portions of SW Steuben County may even struggle to reach the lower 60s. Lows tonight will be mainly in the upper 40s to the mid 50s. Highs Tuesday again generally range from the mid 60s to the low 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure briefly builds in Tuesday night into Wednesday with dry conditions. The next cold frontal boundary starts to approach from the west Thursday and moves through Thursday night into early Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure may form near the Southeast Coast and lift north ahead of the front and enhance the moisture across the area which could result in some localized downpours. WPC does has NE PA and the southern Catskills outlooked in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall this far out for Thursday/Thursday night, so this will be a trend to monitor. High pressure looks to build back in with drier conditions for the start of next weekend. Temperatures will be on the rise Wednesday through Friday with highs generally in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. The Lake Plain and portions of the Finger Lakes do look a bit warmer on Thursday ahead of the front with some places reaching the low and mid 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Rain showers are moving east across the area early this morning. This band of rain could bring occasional MVFR restrictions to ELM over the next few hours (06-09z), but it should weaken and become more scattered to isolated as it approaches the other NY terminals. Behind this rain there could be a short window for fog development at ELM, with IFR tempo from 09-12z early this morning. It should remain generally VFR elsewhere through the morning and early afternoon hours. Lake effect rain showers likely develop later this afternoon, with PROB30 groups included for brief MVFR restrictions at RME, SYR,ITH,ELM and BGM mainly between about 19z and 01z. Can't rule out an isolated thunderstorms, but chances were too low to include at any TAF site at this time. Heading into the late evening hours MVFR CIGs drop down from the north and overspread SYR, RME, ITH and ELM between 03-06z Tuesday. There could also be additional lake effect rain showers during this timeframe, especially at SYR and RME. Light and variable winds under 5 kts expected through the early to mid morning hours today. Winds then turn southwest between 5 to 15 kts this afternoon, before diminishing later this evening. Outlook... Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR, morning fog potential at ELM. Friday...Potential restrictions with an incoming frontal system. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DK AVIATION...AJG/MJM  958 FXUS64 KCRP 240629 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 129 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 127 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Major to Extreme risk of heat-related impacts continue into next week with peak afternoon heat indices nearing or reaching 110 - Fire Danger Statement in effect over most of South Texas from noon to 9 PM. - Daily elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 127 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 I know you wish you could read something new and interesting, and I know I wish I could write something new and interesting, but I want to be honest: nothing has really changed. High pressure remains centered near the Four Corners region, meandering south-southeast through the week, keeping us hot and dry through the end of the week. There is a very low chance of some seabreeze convection in the afternoons, but most locations will not be lucky enough to see this. Guidance is still hinting at the potential for a disturbance to sneak around the eastern periphery of the ridge around the Friday timeframe. This could lead to some isolated showers and slightly cooler temperatures but, again, this is still pretty far out so we are not getting our hopes up. It is going to continue to be miserably hot for this upcoming week with high temperatures in the 90s along the coast to around 105 inland. Expect we will continue with below normal moisture today and tomorrow which will help keep heat index values below 110 for most of South Texas. Because of this, there is not a Heat Advisory currently issued for today, but we may need to issue a short-fused advisory this afternoon. Moisture begins a gradual return Wednesday through the end of the week, resulting in higher heat index values once again. Heat Advisories will likely be needed Wednesday through the end of the week. Regardless of the slightly lower heat index values, we urge you all to be extremely cautious if you are outside. Cumulative heat stress can lead to increased chances for heat exhaustion or heat stroke. Remember to take breaks in the shade or air conditioning, drink water/electrolytes, and pace yourself if working outside. Don't leave children or pets in your vehicle, even for short periods of time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 127 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle. There is a 35-45% probability of brief MVFR VSBYs and/or CIGs at VCT and ALI early Monday morning, mainly after 08Z to around 14Z. S-SE winds 10-15 knots gusting to around 20 knots expected Monday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 127 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Light to moderate (BF 2-4) onshore breezes will continue through the period, with occasional fresh (BF 5) breezes possible during the late afternoon/evening hours, especially south of Port Aransas. Seas are expected to remain around 2-3 feet. Rain chances will remain near zero through the middle of the week. Mariners should take steps to prevent heat illness as hot temperatures continue. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 127 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ERC values have increased across the Brush Country to the 90-96th percentile, with most of the rest of the area in the 70-89th percentile. Humidity values will continue to be low, with minimum RH values below 34% over the Coastal Plains and Brush Country. Winds will remain fairly light, but given the hot temperatures, low relative humidity, and high ERC values, have issued a Fire Danger Statement for most of the area through this evening. Should winds increase more than anticipated, a few locations could experience critical fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 97 77 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 103 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 105 78 105 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 102 73 102 74 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 92 81 92 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 105 76 105 76 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 100 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 91 80 90 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LS/77 AVIATION...TE/81  044 FXUS63 KDVN 240630 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 130 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather continues through Tuesday with temperatures around 80 degrees today and in the lower 80s on Tuesday. - Warmer temperatures on Wednesday with the next chances for showers and storms. Another round of showers and storms is possible next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 112 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Nice late August weather is forecast to continue through Tuesday. High pressure sits across the area through today. Shortwave energy moving through the flow will result in variably cloudy skies across the area today especially during the afternoon. High temepratures this afternoon will be around 80 degrees. Tonight into Tuesday, high pressure shifts to the east of the area allowing light winds to turn to the south. Temperatures rise slightly tonight and Tuesday but the forecast continues to be dry. Low temperatues tonight are forecast to be around 60 degrees with widespread high temperatures Tuesday in the lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 112 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Little change in the overall forecast thinking across the region over the next 7 days. Northwesterly flow continues across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region. A shortwave is forecast to move into the Great Lakes Tuesday night through Wednesday night with the better forcing to our north and east. 25 to 45 percent chance of showers and storms across the area is now mainly on Wednesday morning. High temperature on Wednesday will warm into the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s resulting in CAPE around 500 to 1500 J/KG and 0 to 6 km shear around 30 knots may result in isolated severe storms. High pressure is forecast to build into area for the second half of the week. The flow aloft becomes more progressive late this week into next weekend as a storm system digs into the Pacific Northwest and flattens the Plains ridge. This has been delayed from previous forecasts until the weekend. However a subtle wave Saturday will bring the potential for another round of showers and storms during the morning with a another potential round of showers and storms Sunday into Monday. Despite POPs each period Saturday through Monday, there were will be a lot of dry hours with the broad-brushed Pops being due to timing differences between different operational models and their ensembles. Temperatures gradually increase from the lower 80s on Thursday to widespread mid to upper 80s on Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 High pressure is forecast to sit near the Mississippi River in eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois through the Monday. This will result in light and variable winds across the area with speeds less than 5 knots. Diurnally driven cumulus is forecast to develop after 15 UTC Monday with ceilings around 5 kft. MVFR visibilities are possibly in patchy fog this morning after 08 UTC at KCID and KBRL with lower confidence that it will occur at KMLI so it was left out of that TAF sites for now. If fog does form, visibilities should quickly improve after 12 UTC. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cousins LONG TERM...Cousins AVIATION...Cousins  483 FXUS63 KGID 240633 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 133 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few thunderstorms could clip eastern parts of the area this morning, but otherwise dry conditions are favored through today. - Thunderstorms arrive from the west this evening into tonight. The main severe threat remains over western Nebraska, but a few strong to marginally severe storms are possible (5% chance). - Thunderstorms redevelop late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Some of these storms may become severe. - There are only low chances (20%) for rain/thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday. Better chances return Thursday night, and off-and-on chances continue through the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 133 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Recent CAMs suggest that most (if not all) of convective development should remain over eastern Nebraska/Kansas this morning. Its not impossible that areas near Highway 81 see a brief shower/storm, but most of the area will remain dry during the daytime today. Plenty of sunshine this afternoon should allow for near- normal high temperatures (80s to low 90s). Convection is once again expected to develop over the Sandhills late this afternoon, and it may approach western areas this evening into tonight. Most HREF members show storms weakening as they approach central Nebraska, but the convective parameters remain favorable for at least a few strong to marginally severe storms (which the 00Z HRRR hints at). Tuesday is the primary day to watch for severe weather. A more defined upper wave will potentially allow for convective initiation much earlier in the day. Exact details remain uncertain and are somewhat dependent on how things evolve tonight. But there is potential for one or more clusters of storms of storms to move through the area in the 3pm to 10pm timeframe. Damaging wind would be the primary threat, but some marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out as well. Scattered showers/storms could linger into Tuesday night, but overall drier conditions are favored for Wednesday/Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Currently... An upper level shortwave disturbance sliding southeast across portions of the Central Plains has resulted in a damp end to the weekend for a good chunk of the forecast area today...with activity taking its sweet time pushing through eastern portions this afternoon. This disturbance is embedded in continued larger scale northwesterly flow...set up in a well amplified pattern across the CONUS. The main area of high pressure continues to sit over the Desert SW, with ridging extending northward through the Rockies...sandwiched between a large area of low pressure spinning over the Great Lakes with troughing dominating the East Coast, and another area of low pressure pushing east along the WA/Canada border. Outside of at times heavy rainfall rates, this activity hasn't amounted to a whole lot...as better instability has remained focused off to the west of the forecast area. Satellite imagery has shown the development of quite a range of cloud cover across the area...with mostly cloudy skies across the eastern half, more sun further west. This has resulted in mid-afternoon temps ranging from the mid 60s in the east to the low 80s in the far southwest...though those eastern areas still have the potential for late day highs if the cloud cover diminishes. At the surface, the forecast area sits between high pressure gradually working its way east and a deeper trough axis along the High Plains...bringing southeasterly winds this afternoon, at times gusting near 20 MPH. Tonight into Monday... For most locations, the forecast for this evening and tonight remains dry. Models continue to show the potential for at least scattered showers/storms developing late tonight (mainly around/after midnight) into the early morning hours on Monday...focused along the edge of a SSWrly low-level jet. Models remain consistent showing the best potential for this activity is across eastern portions of mainly our Nebraska counties...but vary some on just how far west coverage actually gets. Chances remain in the 20-40 percent range, with overall lift looking to be on the weaker side, currently not expecting notable coverage of activity. Not out of the question that a few storm could be on the strong side with MUCAPE potentially around 1500 j/kg, but the threat for severe weather continues to look low. Any activity that lingers into the daytime hours on Monday is expected to diminish by mid-morning...with the remainder of the day and at least part of the evening currently dry. Models showing little change in the overall upper level pattern, with the main high/ridging remaining over the Desert SW and Rockies. Forecast has lighter winds turning more easterly through the day, speeds topping out around 10-15 MPH. Expecting to have a bump up in afternoon highs, with generally mid 80s across central/eastern portions of our NE counties, with upper 80s-low 90s further south and west. Monday night into Tuesday... A little more uncertainty with preciptiation chances works its way back into the forecast late Monday evening into the overnight hours. Looking aloft, models showing that upper level low currently over WA/Canad having continued trekking ENE...ending up over south- central Canada by Monday evening. A southward extending sfc front (although on the weaker side) and shortwave energy looks to spark off afternoon thunderstorm development over portions of the Dakotas into the Sandhills...the main question then turning to how much of that activity works its way into our forecast area overnight. There are some notable differences between models...some showing little diminishment in activity as it moves in...others with notable waning with time. Made no changes to the NBM PoPs Monday night-Tuesday AM, which have a notable range from the 20 percent range in the ESE to 50-60 percent range further WNW. At this point, this activity is not expected to be severe. Some questions then linger through the daytime hours on Tuesday into evening/overnight...if activity does move in, how long into the day does it linger, and what impact could it have on the next expected round of thunderstorms to move through the region. Plenty of details to iron out in the next 48hrs...but additional shortwave energy is expected to fire off another round of thunderstorms off to our NW, but exactly where is a little uncertain at least partly due to where any sfc frontal boundaries may ultimately be/set up. There will be the potential for another MCS to sink SSE across the region...with models showing both better instability and shear developing to tap into. This will bring better potential for storms to be strong to severe...and the entire forecast area remains included in the SPC Day 3 Marginal/Slight risk areas, with the Slight risk area roughly from the Tri-Cities southwest-ward into western KS. Wednesday and on... Moving into Wednesday, the same overall pattern of ridging over the Rockies and troughing in the east holds in place with upper level northwest flow holding in place over the region. High temps stay consistent in the 80s on Wednesday and Thursday. Currently models are suggesting drier conditions on Wednesday with more storm potential beginning overnight into Thursday. However, as long as the northwest flow remains in place any shortwaves/disturbances through the pattern will bring potential for precip/storm development. Moving into Friday and the weekend, model guidance suggests a change in the upper level pattern as the ridging over the Rockies broadens into the plains creating a more zonal westerly flow, however a slight northwest component remains in place. A slight rise in the mid/upper level heights accompanies this pattern shift. With the rise in heights, a slight warming pattern occurs with high temps reaching into the mid 80s-low 90s on Friday before rising into the upper 80s-mid to upper 90s on Saturday/Sunday. While the northwest flow is not as strong, shortwaves and disturbances moving through this pattern continue to bring chances of convection, especially in the overnight hours. Models are not super consistent on which days have the best chance for storm development but the chance for storms will likely remain in place until the larger pattern breaks. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Dry, VFR conditions expected through the TAF. A high level stratus layer from decaying convection is starting to make its way eastward in the area. Skies will be mostly clear by this afternoon/evening, before another midlevel cloud layer moves in near the end of the TAF due to some approaching thunderstorms (that may impact the next TAF). While some spotty showers/thunderstorms are still possible (10-15%) this morning, confidence has decreased that they will affect the terminals (models have pushed them eastward), hence their removal from the TAF. SE surface winds between 5-7kt are expected to continue through the morning hours, becoming more southerly late this morning, and returning to SE by the afternoon. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Mangels DISCUSSION...ADP/McGrew AVIATION...Scott  766 FXUS62 KJAX 240637 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 237 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Isolated strong to marginally severe storms possible this afternoon and early evening for southeast GA and much of northeast FL - Hotter today; Peak Heat Index 100-107 degrees - Moderate Rip Current risk at area beaches through Wednesday && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Highlights through Tonight: - Isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms possible amid scattered to numerous thunderstorms for areas along and north of I- 10 this afternoon and early evening. - Hotter conditions with heat index in the 100-107 degree range After a generally dry day yesterday, afternoon thunderstorm chances will be much higher (50-70%) this afternoon particularly in areas along and north of I-10. Fueling the convection this afternoon will be building heat, a Gulf moisture return, and a incoming shortwave impulse. With the moistening southwesterly lower level steering winds remaining in place today, the sea breeze again will be kept east of the I-95 corridor this afternoon. While a considerably dry airmass aloft (above 10,000 ft) will limit deeper convective develop across north-central FL, a slow feed of moisture aloft will destabilized the airmass north of the I-10 corridor where some broader lift will be offered by a weak impulse as it drops in from the northwest and is sheared between the upper trough to the east and dominant ridge to the west. The northern half of the county warning area will be where scattered to numerous showers, pulse storms, and thunderstorm clusters may develop through the mid afternoon and early evening hours before convection shuts down by midnight. There may be some overnight shower development toward the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor amid the convergent southwesterly flow. The threat for the strongest thunderstorms, which may be capable of marginally severe wind gusts, will be along the I-95 corridor from Jacksonville northward to Brunswick where the interactions between the pinned sea breeze and outflow are likely. Forecast soundings do depict the potential for "pockets" of dry air to exist and amplify the potential downdrafts, possible leading to localized damaging microbursts (wind gusts 40-60 mph). The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms to most of northeast FL for this afternoon due to uncertainty in the moisture return. Temperatures will warm a few degrees compared to yesterday with highs pushing into the low to mid 90s before thunderstorm activity begins. With dewpoints mixing into the low to mid 70s, it'll feel like hotter as heat index today will peak in the 100-107 degree range. There's potential for slightly hotter conditions along the SE GA coast where heat index could push near 110 degrees but with the potential for showers to develop along the sea breeze confidence is too low to hoist a Heat Advisory for the coastal SE GA areas. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Increase in showers and storms with return of moisture, higher chances heading into midweek. - Heavy downpours and slow moving showers/storms could bring localized flooding. The stalled frontal boundary over central GA will remain through midweek, with southwest flow persisting over the area. This will allow for moisture to continue to advect into the SE US, where PWATs are expected to remain near 2 inches across the local area. The wind regime will allow the Gulf breeze to remain dominant and push inland each afternoon. Withlight southwesterly flow and a good amount of moisture overhead, the development of slow-moving showers and storms on Tuesday and Wednesday could bring periods of heavy downpours, with the potential for localized flooding along urban areas and poor drainage areas. Currently the coverage of numerous to widespread showers and storms looks to be greatest on Tuesday, as most locations sit above 50% chance of precipitation. By Wednesday, the coverage of numerous showers and storms looks to be more focused along SE GA and coastal NE FL. Activity will be greatest during the afternoon hours as the sea breezes begin to move inland and meet towards the I-95 corridor. With higher chances of precipitation and cloud cover, daytime highs will sit in the lower 90s to mid 90s on Tuesday and Wednesday, with overnight lows in the lower 70s across inland locations, and mid to upper 70s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Active weather continues into the weekend. - Warm temperatures, but Heat Advisory conditions is not expected at this time. An active pattern is expected past midweek, with southwesterly flow continuing to bring the Gulf breeze inland, with diurnal heating bringing the potential for convective activity each afternoon. The ridge over the eastern US begins to lift by the weekend, causing for southwesterly flow to lessen and the onshore flow from the Atlantic to strengthen. This will bring higher chances of showers and storms east of the I-95 corridor during the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will trend slightly above average through the end of the week and the weekend as daily high temperatures reach into the lower 90s. Heat index values will rise to be over 100 during this period, but are expected to remain below heat advisory criteria each day. Tropics Outlook: NHC has a 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation mid to late week across the central Atlantic. Locally, rip current activity could become more enhanced late week depending on the evolution of this system. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Light southwesterly to southerly winds at or below 5 mph will trend toward calm through the rest of the predawn hours. Predominant VFR conditions are expected at area terminals will temporary low stratus development possible with low MVFR to IFR ceilings possible, mainly west of the I-95 corridor through 12z. During the day, there will be an increase in shower and afternoon thunderstorm coverage. Confidence is higher for impacts at the Jax Metro airfields and other terminals along and north of I-10. Primary impacts will be erratic, sudden wind gusts potentially up to 35 knots or higher. Left, but enhanced, inherited PROB30 groups and extended it into the early evening hours. If moderate confidence remains, TEMPO groups will be justified in the following TAF forecast package. Anticipate most convective related impacts to tail off after 02z this evening. SW to SSW winds prevail through the day with the Atlantic sea breeze wind shift expected during the mid afternoon hours for I-95 corridor and coastal airfields. && .MARINE... A stalled front near the Georgia coastal waters will linger today before gradually dissolving through the week. Main maritime concern will be increasing potential for afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day this week. The steering winds will generally move thunderstorms from the shoreline toward the offshore waters during the evening hours. Outside of thunderstorm influences, low to calm seas and light offshore winds persist. Rip Currents: Low risk today until the sea breeze develops then risk will increase to moderate through the afternoon. A solid moderate risk will develop on Tuesday as a marginally strong easterly swell pushes into the coast. No significant increase in breakers is expected with relatively low surf, around 1-2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... West to southwesterly flow continues through the week, with east to southeast winds across coastal locations during the afternoon hours as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland. An increase in moisture across the area, with chances of showers and storms increasing through the week. Good min RH values is expected during the upcoming week with the increase in moisture. Warm temperatures will remain through the upcoming week with temperatures in the Lower to Mid 90s each afternoon. Heat Index expected in the upper 90s to mid 100s, with Heat Advisory conditions not expected at this time. Fog Potential: Significant fog is unlikely, and any strong wind will be associated with nearby thunderstorm activity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 96 73 94 72 / 60 20 80 30 SSI 94 77 91 76 / 50 40 60 40 JAX 95 73 92 72 / 50 50 80 30 SGJ 94 75 91 74 / 20 30 60 30 GNV 94 73 91 71 / 30 20 70 20 OCF 94 74 91 73 / 20 20 60 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$  851 FXHW60 PHFO 240639 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 839 PM HST Sun Aug 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Trade winds will ease slightly on Monday as Tropical Storm Moke passes several hundred miles south of the islands. Moisture along the northern periphery of Moke will bring wet conditions and a risk of flash flooding on the Big Island, while less rainfall is expected to impact windward sections from Maui to Kauai over the next couple of days. Trade winds will drop to moderate strength on Tuesday as Moke moves westward away from the area, with drier trade wind weather returning for the remainder of the week. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE... Scattered showers continue across the Big Island and Maui. Windward and mauka showers will continue over the rest of the main Hawaiian Islands overnight. The Wind Advisory that was in effect for parts of Maui County and the Big Island has been cancelled as winds have dropped below advisory criteria. The Flood Watch remains in effect over the Big Island through tomorrow afternoon. Outside of slight adjustments to PoPs and wind the previous forecast is on track. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 347 PM HST Sun Aug 23 2026 Locally strong and gusty trades winds continue statewide, and wet conditions prevail on windward Big Island as moisture along the northern periphery of Tropical Storm Moke brushes the southern end of the island chain. The exposed low level center marking the center of Moke is currently centered over 300 miles south- southwest of Kailua-Kona, while deep moisture being sheared to the north of the system is largely skirting just south of Big Island. This has kept rainfall on windward Big Island at light to moderate intensity today, limiting rainfall to less than one inch during the past 12 hours and less than a half of an inch in Kau and much of windward Maui. While the wind field surrounding Moke is well south of the islands, the tropical storm is helping to produce a rather tight pressure gradient over the state. The resulting breezy trades are enhanced over and just south of terrain, especially on portions of Big Island and Maui County where gusts of around 50 mph are supporting a Wind Advisory. A flood threat will continue for the Big Island through Monday. As Moke continues to move westward, low- to mid- level flow on the Big Island will shift out of the east to east- southeast, which could optimize orographic lift and increase rainfall on windward and southeast slopes. The guidance continues to show large variation in potential total precipitation, meaning that confidence is lower than normal, but the main window for flooding will be through early Monday morning on windward areas, with a chance for spotty afternoon showers to produce localized flooding across the Kona Districts. A Flood Watch is posted for Big Island through Monday afternoon. Elsewhere in the state, expect somewhat wet conditions windward, with passing showers leeward on gusty trades. Later tonight and Monday, trades will gradually lower as departing Moke allows the local pressure gradient to slowly relax. Drier conditions will develop on Tuesday as trades fall to moderate strength. Expect much of the coming week to feature typical trade wind weather, with showers favoring windward slopes. && .AVIATION... Tropical Storm Moke was centered nearly 300 hundred miles south of the Big Island and continued on its westward track. Rain bands from the tropical storm will impact windward Big Island through the overnight into early Monday, which will bring MVFR and periods of IFR conditions to the area. Trade winds are expected to be moderate to locally strong statewide. Outside of windward Big Island, showers embedded within the trade wind flow will primarily impact windward andmountain areas, bringing periods of MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR will prevail. AIRMET Tango is in effect for low level turbulence downwind of terrain due to the strengthened trade winds. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscurations over windward portion of the islands. An AIRMET for IFR conditions over portions of windward Big Island is also a possibility tonight. TC SIGMET series XRAY covers Tropical Storm Moke and its convection. && .MARINE... Locally strong trades persist through tonight as Tropical Depression Moke passes south of the island chain and broad high pressure remains north of the state. Convection associated with this system will remain over the southern portion of the offshore waters as it tracks west, exiting the region by Monday. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through tonight but will likely be extended for the typical windy waters of Maui County and the Big Island. Locally strong trades return Monday night into Tuesday. Elevated winds and short period fresh swell generated by TD Moke have peaked over the eastern half of the state. Surf along E and ESE facing shores will trend down through tonight as Moke advances westward. Conditions remain choppy, however, as trades persist. Surf along S shores remains below summer norms but still slightly elevated due a lingering small, long period SSW swell. A 3-4 foot, medium to long period S swell will arrive Monday into Tuesday in maintenance of near-normal summertime surf. A similarly sized long period S swell is then poised to arrive midweek boosting surf toward the advisory threshold. A small, medium to long period WNW swell originating from Hurricane Lala will fade during the next 24 to 36 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Locally strong and gusty trades will ease later tonight and Monday, while humidity remains higher than normal due to moisture on the northern periphery of Tropical Storm Moke brushing the state. Heavy rain is expected on windward and southeast slopes of the Big Island, while lower rainfall totals are expected over other windward areas. The inversion will be weak to non-existent into Monday. A typical summertime trade wind pattern will return by Tuesday. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island Summits-Kohala-Kona. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Pailolo Channel. && $$ UPDATE...Walsh DISCUSSION...Wroe AVIATION...Kelley MARINE...JVC FIRE WEATHER...Wroe  859 FXUS63 KDLH 240639 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 139 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The next chance for showers and storms will be tonight through Tuesday and again Wednesday. - Severe storms are possible, particularly Tuesday afternoon and evening with the passage of a cold front. - Seasonal, dry conditions return for the later part of this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 136 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Current conditions/this morning: High pressure is slowly sliding east this morning, with light and variable winds. Satellite imagery is showing some high level clouds pushing into the area from the west, but we will still have good radiational cooling conditions, and while I do not expect us to get quite as cold as last night, it will still be cool with lows in the 40s and perhaps upper 30s. Conditions will also be good for fog, bringing some patchy dense fog that will burn off quickly after sunrise. Today: Southerly warm air advection will push highs up into the mid 70s to around 80 across the area. We have been watching the potential for showers and thunderstorms approaching the area with a wave of warm air advection early this morning, which we can see have developed over northern North Dakota as of 1 AM. However, most mesoscale analysis does not support this convection getting much farther east than it already is, and should deteriorate to mainly cloud debris before it gets to the Northland. Precipitation chances increase tonight as the main upper level shortwave moves across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. Tonight there will be enough instability and decent deep layer shear to initiate convection over eastern North Dakota, then gradually slide east overnight. However, like tonight, the instability and shear weakens significantly to the east, and the storms are likely to weaken and dissipate as they move east. We do have a sliver of Marginal severe risk just to our west from SPC, but it and the even farther west Slight risk are likely to be the main concern of the night and am less concerned for the Northland. Tuesday: Warmer and more humid conditions push into the area, with surface based instability developing during the afternoon and evening hours. Then, just as the upper level shortwave moves across the area and deep layer shear parameters increase, there will be another wave of showers and thunderstorms which move across the Northland. These storms will have the potential to be strong to severe storms, with a few storms capable of producing 1" hail and damaging winds. SPC has a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) outlined for all of the Northland. Showers and non-severe storms will redevelop across the area on Wednesday in the cyclonic flow behind the upper level shortwave. While we will have mostly cyclonic flow on Thursday, the surface ridge building into the area and low level dry air should keep anything but diurnal cumulus from forming. Wednesday and Thursday will be cooler again as well. Dry and seasonable conditions to continue into Friday with high pressure lingering over the area. Weak upper level ridging builds into the area for the weekend, with poor predictability for precipitation chances as weak shortwaves may slide through the flow aloft and bring a round of showers/storms. The forecast has some low end chances for precipitation, but these may be more limited than is currently depicted. Temperatures should remain near normal through the weekend. Another potent upper level low will progress across the area early next week, which may bring another round of higher confidence precipitation chances. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions as of issuance time are expected to give way to areas of fog, some of it at dense. Some indications for fog are higher this evening, with higher dewpoints, but we are not expected to get as cold tonight as we did yesterday. Have included MVFR/IFR visibilities for the same terminals which got fog last night, mostly with TEMPO groups due to the variability which is expected with the fog. As usual, the fog will burn off shortly after sunrise. Light winds overnight into Monday morning will gradually become southeasterly, but remain less than 10kts. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 136 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Quiet conditions are expected across Western Lake Superior through today and tonight with waves of 1 foot or less and winds becoming easterly at generally less than 10 knots. Winds increase a little out of the southeast on Tuesday, along with shower and thunderstorm chances. We should have an initial wave of them Tuesday morning. Additional storms will develop during the afternoon and evening, some of which may be strong to severe. Shower chances to linger into Wednesday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 136 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 High pressure slides to our east today, allowing moisture to begin to push into the area from the west. Relative humidity values to be low again for the MN Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin, but farther west in Minnesota RH values will increase to over 40 percent. Winds will become southerly today, and may gust around 10 mph during the afternoon for parts of the area. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase for Monday night through Wednesday, most especially on Tuesday afternoon and evening, when some storms may become strong. RH values to remain above 40 percent for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Precipitation chances are highest along and north of the Iron Range, but most areas have at least a 40 percent chance of a wetting rainfall. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LE AVIATION...LE MARINE...LE FIRE WEATHER...LE  894 FXUS61 KPHI 240640 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 240 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased chance for isolated showers and storms Monday and Tuesday afternoons. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. High pressure will slowly build towards the region through Wednesday. 2. A warm front on Thursday, will be followed very closely by a cold front Friday into Saturday, resulting in unsettled weather at the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure will slowly build towards the region through Wednesday. High pressure is expected to slowly build towards the region. However, the main mid and upper level low which was responsible for the unsettled weather over the past few days, will still be centered over Ontario and Quebec through tomorrow. As a result, we could continue to see some isolated showers and storms, particularly in the afternoon hours as embedded short wave troughs pivot through the region through Tuesday before the main low finally starts to lift northeast away from the region. At this point, main concerns with any storms are cloud-to-ground lightning and brief heavy downpours, but the risk for other hazards is quite low. KEY MESSAGE 2...A warm front on Thursday, will be followed very closely by a cold front Friday into Saturday, resulting in unsettled weather at the end of the week. By Thursday, high pressure moves offshore with southerly return flow behind a warm front, helping bring dew points back into the low-70s. There looks to be two chances for showers and storms. The first is expected to be Thursday with and behind the warm front. Another chance for storms is possible Friday into Saturday as a cold front approaches. The timing of this cold front will be critical in the risk for thunderstorm hazards, so uncertain on the severe and flooding risk at this point, but will continue to monitor as we go through the week. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through Today...Primarily VFR conditions expected. Isolated SHRA and TSRA are possible, particularly from KABE to KTTN and northward, but coverage is expected to be limited so confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this point. W to WSW winds around 10 kts gusts up to 15-20 kts. Winds shifting more north of west toward 00Z. High confidence. Tonight...Prevailing VFR conditions expected. Winds mostly out of the west, but becoming light and variable, particularly after 00Z. Outlook... Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR expected most of the time. Thursday and Friday...Showers and thunderstorms likely developing late, otherwise prevailing VFR. && .MARINE... No marine hazards expected. Outlook... Through Wednesday...No marine hazards expected. Thursday and Friday...Gusts near 25 kt are possible, particularly on Thursday with southerly winds behind a warm front. Rip Currents... On Monday, southwest winds will average 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon with breaking waves of 1 to 2 feet. There will be light southerly swells with a period of 6 to 8 seconds. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches. On Tuesday, winds will shift more westerly with similar seas and surf conditions as Monday expected. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WFO PHI AVIATION...WFO PHI MARINE...WFO PHI  017 FXUS64 KHUN 240641 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 141 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 736 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms exists during the middle part of this week. The primary hazard will be locally excessive rain and lightning. There is a low chance of few strong storms with gusty winds as well. && .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 736 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A cold front has become stationary across central MS, AL and GA. Northerly flow and mixing has brought dew points down into the upper 50s to lower 60s for southern TN and far north AL, with upper 60s further south. Northwest flow and shortwave at 5h were bringing veils of high clouds into the region this evening. Overnight lows with light or calm wind will be in the lower to middle 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 736 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 NW flow will persist through mid week with higher theta-E, moisture and instability being shunted to our south and southwest through Monday into Monday night. Another pleasant day is forecast Monday with dew points staying in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90. As a shortwave drops into the lower MO Valley on Tuesday, mid level moisture will begin to edge further east into AL and middle TN. This brings a very low chance of showers Tuesday. Low levels will likely be too dry to support much precipitation. The shortwave will pivot into the mid South and TN Valley Tuesday Night into Wednesday. The models differ greatly with the strength of the wave, magnitude of the associated LLJ, and consequently the influx of theta-E and convergence. The most plausible scenario is that elevated convection, possibly in the former of MCS clusters will develop Tuesday night in MO at the nose of the LLJ. These drop into western KY, much of western and central TN and into north AL by Wednesday, followed by eventual cold front passage late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Given the uncertainty, the NBM has low to medium chance PoPs at this point. Locally heavy rainfall may become the primary risk with this event, but a few strong storms could also develop with 20-25kt of 6km bulk shear. As of now, NBM has highs in the lower 90s for most valley area, but this appears to be questionable if the morning MCS clusters arrive as the models are depicting. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 736 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The axis of an upper level trough is shown to be right over the Southeast to start the long term, with shortwaves rippling along the flow across the ArkLaMiss and into the Tennessee Valley. This trough will gradually be pushed northeast as an upper ridge over the Desert Southwest builds over the southern Plains and eastward into the Southeast this weekend. At the surface, a boundary looks to linger over central Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia through midweek; but, another cold front is expected to push through the Tennessee Valley on Thursday. There may be a reinforcing front that swings through on Friday, but high pressure is shown to quickly build over the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and portions of the Northeast next weekend. Overall, the best chance of showers and storms will likely be Wednesday night through Thursday. Chances then decrease from late week through the weekend as drier air is filtered into the region. Guidance indicates that PWATs increase to around 2 inches late Wednesday through Thursday. While there will likely be sufficient instability with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Thursday afternoon, model bulk shear values and lapse rates have decreased since yesterday. So, confidence in stronger storms (downbursts) has also decreased; however, these trends will continue to be monitored. Regardless, showers and storms will be efficient rainfall producers. Heavy rain, especially from cells moving over the same locations repeatedly, may result in at least minor flooding issues. Ultimately, keep any eye on forecast updates this week and turn around, don't drown if you encounter flooded roads! For Friday through Sunday, rain chances are lower with continued high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 141 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Broken-overcast cirroform clouds will continue to spread southeastward across northern AL early this morning, as a weakening upper-lvl disturbance approaches the region in NW flow aloft. Although a few patches of virga (or perhaps a sprinkle or two of lgt RA) may also occur through 12-14Z, conditions will remain VFR at the HSV/MSL terminals as the high-lvl ceilings should largely inhibit development of BR/FG (in spite of a lgt NE- calm wind). The dense cloud cover aloft will begin to disperse around 15Z, leaving only a sct coverage of Ci (and few Cu during the aftn). Sfc winds will diurnally back to NNW and increase to 5-10 kts later this morning, before a lgt ENE flow becomes reestablished this evening. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...17 SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...70/DD  032 FXUS62 KTAE 240641 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 241 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Another hot day is expected with hazardous heat focusing the most over parts of the Eastern FL Panhandle and Central Big Bend. A Heat Advisory will go into effect for several counties in that region - 12PM EDT/11AM CDT to 7PM EDT/6PM CDT. - Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms appear likely Monday and Tuesday. Isolated damaging gusts are the primary concerns. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) by the Storm Prediction Center is in place nearly areawide. - The rest of the work week will be monitored for storm activity diving in from the northwest amidst otherwise typical summertime pattern of seasonable hot daytime temperatures and diurnally driven convection. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 The main concerns for today are another round of hazardous heat and better overall convective coverage. The culprits are a strong, broad upper anticyclone over the Southern Plains and lingering frontal boundary analyzed across Central MS/AL/GA. Strong ridging to our west, 850-mb temperatures about 19C and 70+ dew points yields widespread high temperatures around the mid 90s and triple-digit heat indices. The latter ranges from 108-112 degrees over parts of the Eastern FL Panhandle and Central Big Bend where a Heat Advisory has been issued - 12PM EDT/11AM CDT to 7PM EDT/6PM CDT. Tonight's lows drop to the low 70s away from the immediate coast. Yesterday's convection was fairly limited thanks to relatively dry air in the absence of significant forcing. However, the airmass appears a bit more moist this morning with satellite- derived precipitable water in the 1.6-1.9" range. A notable dry mid-level layer will be contributing to DCAPE at or above 1000 J/kg amidst high CAPE from strong diurnal heating. Toss in the front draped across the region and we are poised to see robust afternoon thunderstorms capable of strong-damaging gusts, frequent lightning, locally heavy rain, and perhaps small to medium-sized hail. We will also need to monitor a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) that is forecast to dive south in the Lower MS Valley from the NW. Most guidance keeps this feature to our west, but any eastward deviation can have implications for us. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms appears likely on Tuesday for similar reasons described in the short-term section. The large-scale pattern through the remainder of the work week will feature persistent ridging to our west and troughing to our north. This synoptic set up places us in NW flow aloft, which means we will be closely monitoring the upstream environment for any disturbances aloft capable of producing SE moving MCS'. Otherwise, expect a more typical summertime regime consisting of seasonable high temperatures in the low 90s (but mostly below advisory level heat indices), warm overnight lows in the low/mid 70s, and diurnally driven convection forced by the seabreeze and subsequent outflow boundary collisions. By this weekend, subtropical ridging builds across the region with an inverted trough or two attempting to cross the FL Peninsula from the Atlantic. These features would yield slightly hotter temperatures (perhaps returning advisory level heat) and the best rain chances across the Eastern FL Big Bend, South- Central GA, and the Suwannee Valley. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 107 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions prevail most of the morning with some potential ofsome IFR visibility/ceilings near dawn. Amendments may be needed if we see any fog and/or stratus develop between 09Z and 13Z. A nearby front combined with the seabreeze will help spark scattered showers and storms this afternoon. Convection dies down near or just after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Light to gentle southwest breezes prevail the next few days thanks to persistent surface high pressure over the Central Gulf. The main marine threats are thunderstorms capable of strong, gusty winds, frequent lightning, potential waterspouts, and reduced visibility from heavy rain. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 The main fire concerns are hazardous heat in portions of the Eastern FL Panhandle and Central Big Bend (including the Apalachicola Nat'l Forest) today and daily chances for afternoon thunderstorms. The latter will be capable of strong to isolated damaging gusts, frequent lightning, and locally wetting rains. Gusty/erratic winds are also possible away from thunderstorms from outflow boundaries and the seabreeze. West to SW winds prevail outside of convection. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Daily thunderstorms will be capable of producing localized nuisance or flash flooding in urban, poor-drainage, and low-lying areas. Otherwise, there are no significant hydrological concerns the next several days. All area rivers are currently running well below action stage. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 96 75 92 74 / 70 20 70 20 Panama City 93 77 90 76 / 20 40 60 40 Dothan 95 73 93 73 / 40 20 60 10 Albany 96 74 95 74 / 30 10 50 10 Valdosta 95 74 94 73 / 70 20 60 30 Cross City 94 75 91 74 / 40 30 70 30 Apalachicola 92 78 89 77 / 30 40 70 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ012>016-027-112-114-115-127-326- 426. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...IG3 LONG TERM....IG3 AVIATION...Reese MARINE...IG3 FIRE WEATHER...IG3 HYDROLOGY...IG3  105 FXUS63 KGRB 240643 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 143 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry today, then shower/storm chances (40-80%) at times Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. Low risk of severe weather, mainly Tuesday evening/night. - Comfortable today with highs near normal, then temps climb slightly above normal with increasing humidity mid-week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 143 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Today into Tonight...Light winds, clear skies have produced ideal radiational cooling conditions across the region early this morning, with temps dropping into the 30s across the typical cold spots across northern WI. A little patchy ground fog will once again be possible early this morning and overnight into early Tuesday, mainly across central and northern WI. Any fog would burn off shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, dry and quiet conditions are expected today into tonight, with high clouds increasing through the day. It will be less windy, with northwest winds generally under 12 mph, with some higher gusts this morning in/near Door Co. Shower/Storm Chances Tuesday into Wednesday...Chances for showers and storms will increase on Tuesday as a shortwave and cold front approach from the west. The HRRR is the most aggressive with the first batch of showers and isolated storms, bringing it all the way through the area Tuesday morning. Other CAMs hint at some activity, but thinking the dry air will eat away at its eastward advancement, so have only brought 20-30% chances in the parts of central and north-central WI. Behind the initial area, instability will build within the warm sector, with SBCAPEs climbing to at least 500-1000 J/kg, highest in north-central WI, with some 2000 J/kg possible towards northwest WI. 0-6 km bulk shear should be in the 25-30 kt range, allowing for some organized storm activity. Could have some isolated activity in the warm sector during the day, but the main show looks to develop across northwest WI during the afternoon/evening as the shortwave dives into northern MN and the front arrives. Machine Learning guidance has honed in on this area for the greatest severe weather threat, which could extend into parts of north central WI Tuesday evening (SPC brings the Marginal Risk to the CWA border), with gusty winds and hail the main threats. Storms will likely become more elevated through the night, with the area of showers and embedded shores spreading across the area Tuesday evening/night, with 50-80% chances across the area. While widespread heavy rain is unlikely with probabilities of over 0.5" at 50% or less (highest over northern WI), some locally heavy rain will be possible in any storms, and especially if any training storms occur. Other areas of moderate rain are also expected Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, so many spots will at least put a dent into the drought conditions. Models remain in fair agreement with faster FROPA on Wednesday, pushing the primary severe risk farther east. Enough cool air aloft with the trough to result in shower/storm chances (20-70%, highest north/east), especially during peak heating. Lingering instability could lead to a strong storm with gusty winds and hail. Thursday into the Weekend...northwest, cyclonic flow across the western Great Lakes could produce a few showers on Thursday, especially in the afternoon during peak heating and steepest low- level lapse rates. But with the colder air aloft and better forcing to our north/east, along with dry air, will limit the shower potential with chances under 20% (highest near Door Co.). Dry conditions are expected on Friday as weak high pressure slides across the region. Next chances for showers and storms (20-40%) move back into the area from the southwest this weekend as flow aloft becomes more zonal. While the higher threat for severe weather and flooding will be to our south/west, any northward shift would bring the threat into our area, at least for a day or two. Temperatures...After the chilly conditions this morning, temps the rest of the week look to be near normal or slightly above normal. Warmest days with highs in the low-mid 80s should be Tuesday ahead of the front. Warmest night in the 60s much of the area will be Tuesday night with clouds, showers/storms and some wind. Lows could drop back into the upper 30s and 40s again late this week over the north. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 941 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 No significant changes to the previous forecast. Other than patchy ground fog for central and north-central WI late tonight, plan on VFR conditions through the TAF period. Mainly clear skies are expected into Monday morning. Less fair weather clouds are expected on Monday, but will likely see coverage in the few-sct range, highest over eastern WI. Cloud bases will likely remain above 5-6 kft. With high pressure centered across the region, winds on Monday will be light, topping out at 5 to 10 kts during the afternoon. Light winds expected to continue on Monday night. && .MARINE... Issued at 143 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Northwest winds of 15-22 kts continue north of Sturgeon Bay early this morning, with a few gusts to 25 kts near Death's Door. The strongest of the winds will continue through sunrise, so will just let the Small Craft Exercise Caution run its course through 12z. Winds will slowly ease after sunrise. A period of persistent south/southwest winds is forecast on Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Gusts to 25 kts will be possible, with waves building to at least 2 to 4 ft with some 5 foot waves possible. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed. A moderate swim risk is also expected on Lake Michigan beaches. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Bersch AVIATION.......MPC MARINE.........Bersch  257 FXUS64 KOUN 240645 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 145 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 145 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Excessive heat continues early this week, with "less hot" conditions towards the midweek. - Strong to severe storms are possible early this morning across north-central Oklahoma and along the I-40 corridor Monday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts are the main hazard. - Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across portions of western, central and southern Oklahoma and western-north Texas on Monday afternoon into early evening. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 A corridor of scattered rain and storm activity is beginning to rapidly take shape across portions of north-central and central Oklahoma early this morning, coincident with a strengthening/translating low-level jet and warm advection regime. A few storms here may pose a risk for strong-damaging wind gusts and hail over the coming hours before activity begins to shift eastward into Green Country and the western Ozarks towards daybreak. A surface low and attendant cold front will move slowly southeastward across northern portions of the forecast area during the first half of Monday. Airmass modification associated with the early morning round of showers and storms (i.e., outflows, remnant clouds, etc.) will likely have a strong control on sensible conditions by the afternoon, especially the further east you go in Oklahoma. Hottest conditions on Monday are expected just south of the front in areas least affected by aforementioned factors. For now, this looks to be the area south of I-40 and along/west of I-35. Here, high temperatures climbing to near 112-115F is not off the table (~20-30% chance of occurrence). A daily high temperature of 115F has only been achieved three times (since 1923) at Wichita Falls and once (since 1912) at Lawton. Elsewhere, despite potential for a more sluggish start to warming, hot and humid conditions are expected by the late afternoon (ambient highs 95-100F; heat indices as high as 105F). A Heat Advisory and Extreme Heat Warning continue from 12 PM to 8 PM Monday, and have been expanded east-north to account for an increasing warm signal in latest guidance. Similar to temperatures, the nature of an afternoon into evening storm risk across the area will be heavily influenced by what occurs from sunrise through lunchtime. For now, we will continue to carry very low (~20%) mention of isolated thunderstorm activity near the expected frontal zone (i.e., generally along the I-40 corridor and southward) from the late afternoon into mid-evening. Given a very hot and well-mixed boundary layer, with strong downdraft potential energy, damaging winds will be the primary hazard should a few stronger thunderstorm cores emerge during this time. While the persistent hot and dry weather and worsening/expanding drought is leading to many days of elevated fire weather conditions across Oklahoma and western-north Texas, the addition of a front may offer a locally focused corridor of more concerning potential later this afternoon and evening. Along with pre-frontal "torching", a local minima in afternoon humidity (as low as ~13-15%) and maxima in southwesterly wind gusts (~20-25 mph) may offer brief periods of near-critical fire weather conditions. While a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement seems most appropriate for now - given uncertainties discussed above - a targeted Red Flag Warning may become warranted if this higher threat corridor emerges in the nowcast space. As the front begins to ooze southward closer to sunset, a west-to- north wind shift will also need to be closely monitored should any fires become established across the landscape across central Oklahoma. Ungar && .SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 The cold front introduced on Monday will likely continue to impact sensible weather across the region into the midweek. A notable north- to-south temperature gradient is likely across the forecast area on Tuesday, with "coolest" (upper-90s) highs across northern Oklahoma. If the frontal zone can remain mostly intact (i.e., not get "washed out"), then another corridor of very hot weather (high temperatures and heat indices >105F) is likely across southern Oklahoma into western-north Texas. An active period of thunderstorm activity is forecast on Tuesday evening across the Southern High Plains, with a semi-organized thunderstorm complex likely taking shape during the evening here. As activity moves eastward, the potential for at least sporadic strong-severe wind gusts appears possible across western Oklahoma into early Wednesday morning. Things continue to take a cooler turn into Wednesday for most areas north of the Red River, as a weak surface high slides southward across the combined panhandles. Upper-90s to low-100s highs are expected, with potential for >105F afternoon heat indices continuing along and south of the Red River. The storm potential on Wednesday near the front is a bit murky/low, though some short-term guidance does advertise chances across southern Oklahoma into western-north Texas, as another embedded perturbation rounds the periphery of the upper ridge. Ungar && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 It still appears as though the high-amplitude/strong upper high will subtly retrograde into the middle of the week, putting a check on temperatures and keeping the door open for at least low precipitation chances. Thursday looks to be another "cooler" (yet still above average) day on the temperature front, with upper-90s to near-100F highs across Oklahoma and western-north Texas. The current forecast would advertise the lowest/least areal coverage of heat headlines this day, though will be dependent on how surface features (namely a front) evolves on Wednesday. It does currently appear that we begin to warm more notably into next weekend, as advection of warmer airmasses re-establishes. While no period stands out amongst the rest in terms of rain and storm chances, our position relative to the aforementioned high will allow for at least episodic (low) chances from Thursday evening into the weekend (especially across northern and western Oklahoma). Ungar && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 933 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR ceilings with mid/high clouds. A front and sfc low are expected to move into parts of the area Monday which will affect the winds but in general SW to W winds are expected ahead of the front with mainly N to NE winds behind the front. Scattered showers/storms moving across the Panhandles may move into parts of NW OK overnight and may affect KWWR. Scattered showers/storms are also expected to develop overnight/early Monday in parts of north central OK. There is then a third chance for showers/storms Monday afternoon/evening for areas generally along and south of the front. Chances are currently too low in some areas for mention in TAFs. There is also uncertainty with the position of the front/sfc low Monday afternoon although right now it looks like it could be somewhere near the I-40 corridor. If storms develop Monday afternoon/evening, strong, variable winds will be possible with some of the storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 107 75 100 73 / 20 20 10 10 Hobart OK 111 75 104 73 / 20 20 10 30 Wichita Falls TX 111 81 106 76 / 10 20 10 10 Gage OK 100 70 97 66 / 0 10 10 60 Ponca City OK 96 72 98 71 / 10 0 10 20 Durant OK 107 79 106 77 / 20 20 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ016>019-021-022-026-030>032-042-043-048. Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ023>025-027>029-033>041-044>047-050>052. TX...Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...09 SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...25  415 FXUS61 KBTV 240646 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 246 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 243 AM EDT Monday... No significant changes to the current forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 243 AM EDT Monday... 1. Lingering showers will continue today and Tuesday under broad cyclonic flow, with drier weather returning towards the middle of the week. 2. Showery end to the week before trending drier over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 243 AM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Slow moving surface and upper level low pressure systems remain over the region, keeping broad cyclonic flow in place. This will lead to continued scattered showers, especially across the higher terrain as the upper level low gradually shifts away from the region. This cyclonic flow will also lead to some lake effect showers off Lake Ontario, with increased shower chances expected across northern New York today and into Tuesday. Temperatures will be on the cool side, with highs only climbing into the 70s, with some locations in the Adirondacks struggling to climb out of the upper 60s. A brief period of ridging will build into the region for Wednesday, bringing some drier weather conditions for the middle of the week. KEY MESSAGE 2: An upper-level trough builds in on Thursday and Friday, bringing some showers and thunderstorms. A northern- stream surface low should track northeast out of the Great Lakes Region and into Quebec during this time, though its center will pass well too far to the north to have any direct impacts. However, as is typical for incoming upper level lows, a series of surface fronts/troughs should move through Thursday and Thursday night, bringing multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Model guidance has continued to keep any possible secondary low development and most of the tropical moisture out to sea, preventing the heaviest rain from reaching the region. While a couple strong to severe storms could be possible on Thursday, the synoptic setup and ingredients favor another marginal low CAPE/high shear setup, though the exact details will be refined before then. During that period, GEFS/EPS/CMCE combined probabilities of more than a half inch of rain are down below 20 percent, though the convective nature will lead to some locally higher totals. Broad upper level troughing and associated cyclonic flow should remain over the weekend, keeping temperatures on the cooler side, but conditions should remain mostly dry. Highs should be in the 70s with low humidity, while lows should be in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 06Z Tuesday...A mix of flight categories currently exist and that will remain the case for the rest of the night. MPV is IFR and will likely have fog for the rest of the night. SLK has an MVFR cloud deck that should prevail for the rest of the night, but if it does clear, fog formation is possible there. BTV has an MVFR cloud deck that should gradually scatter. Elsewhere is VFR and should mostly stay that way for the rest of the night. RUT is VFR but has a fogbank within a couple miles of the airport and while it is forecast to remain away, it could make a few brief incursions onto the runway. Any fog and low clouds should lift and scatter by mid- morning, and VFR conditions will mostly prevail through the evening. However, isolated showers will pass through during the day and evening, and could briefly cause MVFR visibility to develop at any given terminal. The highest probability of receiving a shower remains over northern New York, though they cannot be completely ruled out from reaching a Vermont terminal. Some low clouds are likely to return to SLK and MPV tonight, and while stronger flow and more cloud covershould make fog formation more difficult, it is still possible there. Winds will generally be southerly and between 5-10 KT, except for the rest of the night when they should be more variable and terrain driven outside the Champlain Valley. Outlook... Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Neiles DISCUSSION...Neiles/Myskowski AVIATION...Myskowski  421 FXUS64 KJAN 240647 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 147 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous heat stress is expected across southern portions of the area today. - Isolated to scattered severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts remain possible across southern portions of the area today. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Today and tonight... A sinking surface boundary sliding southeast paired with the right entrance region an upper jet streak/speed max will contribute to an early morning round of elevated convection this morning across portions of the Delta and central MS. With this activity, temperatures/heat indices will be cooler today than we've seen recently with maximum values near 105 mostly near and south of the I-20 corridor. A "Limited" (1/4) risk for heat stress remains depicted in these areas. Mostly to the south of this early activity, afternoon heating could allow for a rejuvenation of storm activity and these diurnally stronger storms warrant continuation of a "Slight" (2/5) risk for severe weather with the primary risk expected to be a risk for damaging wind gusts. Tuesday into the weekend... A preciously advertised risk for strong to severe storms on Tuesday has been withdrawn on this forecast cycle. Recent trends suggest early morning convective activity could result in a somewhat more thermodynamically stable environment during the afternoon and evening tomorrow. Through the week, deep layer upper ridging will initially retrograde toward the Southwest as upper troughing generally moves further northeast and weaker away from the area. This results in upper heights remaining generally unchanged but with a somewhat reduced gradient. This could mean somewhat of a reduction in the near daily risk of mostly diurnally driven strong to severe storms, but embedded disturbances within the generally northwest flow aloft will mean some day-to-day variation could still bring the threat to some portions of the area each day. This will be monitored through the next week and targeted, mostly lower-end severe weather outlooks for some risk of damaging winds could be introduced when warranted. With a reduction in storm coverage likely and a general return to weak, southerly boundary layer flow as opposed to the more recent northerlies, heat and humidity will be on the rebound through the week. Heat headlines and advisories will likely be needed as the week progress. /SW/86/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 All TAF sites are VFR tonight and this will continue through the morning hours. Showers/Storms will develop this afternoon and this will bring the potential for MVFR/IFR conditions to affected sites. The winds will mainly be light and variable outside of any thunderstorm activity./15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 95 73 93 73 / 50 40 50 0 Meridian 96 72 93 72 / 40 30 50 10 Vicksburg 95 74 95 74 / 40 30 30 10 Hattiesburg 97 74 93 73 / 50 50 70 10 Natchez 98 76 96 75 / 30 20 20 0 Greenville 93 73 96 75 / 60 50 50 20 Greenwood 92 71 93 73 / 60 50 50 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 86/15  409 FXUS65 KBOI 240646 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1246 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms in southern areas Monday afternoon and early evening. - Little chance of thunderstorms the rest of the week, except a slight chance in the central ID mountains Wednesday afternoon, and near the NV/ID border Friday-Sunday afternoons. - Warming Monday and Tuesday, holding level Wednesday, then gradually cooling the rest of the week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday Night/... Issued 214 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Thunderstorm threat shifting out of Twin Falls County late today then dry through the night. Mid-high level moisture will increase from the southwest overnight and Monday morning with scattered thunderstorms developing by noon in Twin Falls County, early afternoon in Owyhee County, and mid afternoon in southeast Oregon, lasting until sunset. Clouds will increase but storms should stay south of the Snake River in ID, and south of Burns- Ontario in OR. Monday will also be 4 to 8 degrees warmer than today even with increasing clouds, as a short wave ridge aloft comes in from northern California. The ridge and thunderstorms will exit Monday night but further slight warming will continue Tuesday, with high temps reaching the mid-upper 90s in the Snake Basin and 85 to 95 elsewhere. && && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/... Issued 214 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Generally dry and breezy conditions will persist throughout much of the long-term period. Lingering moisture will allow for a 15-30% chance of precipitation and a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, mainly near the ID/NV border and the Central ID Mountains. Beyond Wednesday, troughing off of the west coast will push the moisture south and east of our area. Height falls throughout the period will allow for a slight cooling trend, with temperatures 2-7 degrees above normal throughout the period. Uncertainty begins to increase late this week, following the lifting of the initial trough and associated frontal passage. However, cluster analysis is leaning towards troughing digging back down into the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z Monday through Tuesday/... Issued 1246 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2026 VFR. Areas of wildfire smoke. Surface winds: variable under 12 kts overnight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 5-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: light and variable overnight. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Fire Weather Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for IDZ423-426. OR...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for ORZ670>672. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....CH SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....NF  626 FXUS64 KAMA 240654 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 154 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 144 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Summer heat wave continues with impactful temperatures near or above 100 degrees today. - Thunderstorm chances pick up across the Panhandles today through Thursday, with Tuesday and Wednesday having at least a medium chance 30-50% of storms across all areas. - Severe weather will be possible today and Tuesday with strong damaging winds as the primary threat, but will not rule out large hail on Tuesday as well. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 144 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Latest radar shows frontal boundary moving through Amarillo as of Midnight. Shower activity is on the downward trend but localized heat burst allowing wind gusts 40 to 55 mph could still be possible with any decaying showers. This front is a bit on the weak side and will not likely impact our highs by much today. We still will be looking at several areas over 100, and the southeast looks to break 105, so a Heat Advisory has been issued for that area, as well as Palo Duro Canyon. Typical high pressure continues over our area with a subtle wave to move through the western Panhandles late this afternoon and evening. With that wave we could see storms off the mountain track along it, and bring a chance of showers and storms to that area. Given these typical high based storms with strong inverted V profile would support strong damaging wind gusts as the primary threat with any storm that occurs. On Tuesday we will be looking at easterly low level flow that will bring our dewpoints up and the ridge will start to shift further south, giving us more of a northwest flow pattern. With another wave in that northwest flow we expect storms off the mountains to track into the northwest in the evening. But the late afternoon we are showing the potential for isolated to scattered convection in the central to eastern Panhandles. Given light to moderate shear as well as CAPE values over 2000 J/kg and the lift from the wave, would support a decent chance at strong to severe storms with hail up to ping pong and wind gusts up to 75 mph. Coverage of storms will still be a bit tricky as it starts off with the isolated to scattered convection in the central and east, but the west should have more of a cluster come in laster in the evening, but its a little bit of a challenge as to if it will hold together later in the evening for the south and eastern Panhandles. Weber && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 144 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 A pattern change could be on the way as Wednesday's setup is similar to Tuesday with another round of storms off the mountains expected to track across the Panhandles. Thursday we'll have to watch a bit closer, as there is conflicting models. It may yet again be like anther Tuesday and Wednesday, but there is a hint that the ridge may shift a bit further west giving us more of a northerly flow and the storms could stay off to the west in NM. Friday through Sunday the ridge tries to shift further west including over the Panhandles by Sunday and with that comes the hot temperature return and limited precipitation chances. Weber && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 144 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions for the TAF period, but there could be some MVFR conditions at KDHT late in the TAF period as showers and storms could impact the terminal from 0-6z. Otherwise winds generally will vary an be in the 8 to 12kt range. Weber && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ018>020-317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...89 LONG TERM....89 AVIATION...89