993 FXUS64 KLZK 240501 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1201 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 -Relatively cooler temperatures will be seen from today through much of the upcoming week, especially compared to the brutal temperatures felt across Arkansas last week. -A Marginal Risk for severe weather is present on Sunday across the northwestern quadrant of the state for a few storms which may produce damaging wind gusts on Sunday evening into the early morning hours on Monday. -Northwesterly flow positioned over Arkansas will continue to allow multiple frontal boundaries to impact the state resulting POP chances on multiple days during the forecast period && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 As of 2 AM CDT, storms are exiting the southeastern portion of the state and moving into Mississippi. SUNDAY into EARLY MONDAY: A Heat Advisory has been introduced for today across southern Arkansas where heat index values are expected to peak between 105 and 109 degrees during this afternoon. It is expected during today for southern Arkansas to remain dry overall which will allow heat index values increase into advisory territory. A chance does exist that the Heat Advisory may need expanding northward along the I-40 corridor, but latest guidance does not warrant this. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) will be in place across the northwestern quadrant or northwestern fourth of the state with the main hazard of damaging wind gusts possible with storms that become severe. A mid-level jet streak over southern Missouri and northeastern Arkansas will result in the right entrance region of the jet to be positioned over northeast Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas. The entrance region will promote or enhance lift which will lead to storm development and the storm motion of east-southeast will result in scattered storms moving into a modest, but conditionally unstable parameter space across the northwestern fourth of Arkansas with projected shear values of 30 to 45 knots to support healthy updrafts along with DCAPE values of 500 to 1,000 J/kg which would support isolated instance of damaging wind gusts. The timing of the storms moving into Arkansas will be Sunday evening into Sunday night. MONDAY through SATURDAY: In the upper lvls, northwesterly flow will continue to be present over Arkansas leading to several days over the forecast period in which POPs will be present across parts of the state. Important to note not all locations will experience appreciable rainfall. POPs will be present across eastern Arkansas on Monday night, a large part of the state on Wednesday into Wednesday night (associated with a series of weak frontal boundaries progged to move across the state from north to south), and isolated parts of the state into the next weekend (associated with a boundary which is progged to become stationary across Arkansas). Temperatures overall during the forecast period will be lower than the brutal temperatures experienced over the last week, but a few days, especially those which lack POP chances and increased cloud cover will allow high temperatures to reach 100 degrees across many location and on the trend of temperatures above normal for this time of the year will continue overall. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR flight category is expected over the majority of the forecast period from early Monday morning through early Tuesday morning across all TAF sites. A complex of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be moving across Arkansas from north to south across the state. However, coverage is not anticipated to be widespread, therefore TEMPO and PROB30 groups along with periods of VCTS and VCSH are introduced across all sites. If a TAF site does become directly impacted by a shower or thunderstorm, then VSBY may drop to MVFR or IFR. Surface wind gusts in excess of 30 knots have been introduced within the TEMPO and PROB30 groups. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 87 70 95 73 / 60 20 10 20 Camden AR 96 74 99 75 / 40 20 10 10 Harrison AR 85 69 92 71 / 80 10 10 10 Hot Springs AR 93 74 100 75 / 40 20 10 10 Little Rock AR 90 74 100 77 / 80 20 10 10 Monticello AR 93 75 97 77 / 80 30 30 10 Mount Ida AR 94 72 101 73 / 40 20 10 10 Mountain Home AR 84 68 92 70 / 60 10 10 10 Newport AR 86 70 93 73 / 30 20 10 20 Pine Bluff AR 90 72 97 74 / 80 20 20 10 Russellville AR 91 72 100 74 / 70 20 10 10 Searcy AR 88 70 96 73 / 80 20 20 20 Stuttgart AR 90 73 97 75 / 80 20 20 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...74  100 FXUS63 KILX 240503 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1203 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonal and mostly dry weather is expected through at least Tuesday evening over central and southeast IL. - The next chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to marginally severe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Nice late summer weather pattern expected through Tuesday across central and southeast IL after a very active weather pattern 1st 3 weeks of the month. Weak 1021 mb surface high pressure over nw MO into central Iowa and upper MS river valley to settle over IL during tonight and into the mid Ohio river valley on Mon and Mon night while ridging back into central/ne IL. This will continue fair wx across the prairie state into Tuesday with dry conditions and more comfortable humidity levels. NW winds 5-15 mph and scattered diurnally driven cumulus clouds over central and ne IL to dissipate after sunset while veil of high clouds over MO and central/se Iowa is clipping west central and sw IL. A disturbance over the central plains to keep chances of convection well sw of IL over central and sw MO tonight into early Monday as it tracks se across the MO valley/Ozarks. Patchy shallow ground fog may develop during overnight into early Mon morning mainly near river valleys and low lying rural ares. HREF only has 15-30% chance of vsbys getting to 5 miles or less over portions of CWA later tonight. HRRR and RAP show very little fog formation with drier air in place while NAM and GFSLamp show some patchy fog development mainly near river valleys. Comfortable night ahead with lows in the mid to upper 50s. Highs Monday around 80F with lower 80s southeast IL and sw CWA, with scattered cumulus clouds developing by midday giving partly to mostly sunny skies. Lows 55-60F Monday night and highs in the low to mid 80s Tuesday. Winds to stay fairly light generally under 10 mph tonight through Tue. A northern stream upper level shortwave moving over the southern Canadian Prairie Provinces next few days, will track se through the northern Great Lakes Region, sending a cold front se through IL during Wed afternoon and Wed night. This will likely bring our next chance for showers and thunderstorms. Increasing south to SW flow ahead of the cold front to bring in warmer and more humid air into central/se IL on Wed. Highs in the mid to upper 80s Wed and possibly approaching 90F from Springfield sw with dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s/lower 70s. A cap initially in place on Wed could break later in the afternoon and Wed evening allowing thunderstorms to develop in a moderate instability with wind shear environment. Although the better upper forcing will be displaced to our north, a few strong to marginally severe storms could develop later Wednesday afternoon and evening, posing a threat for damaging wind gusts. Could see lingering low chances of showers/thunderstorms in se IL early Thu, otherwise fair weather with seasonable temperatures to return Thu through at least Friday night as high pressure settles into the region. Strong mid/upper level ridge over the Southwest States through this work week begins to break down/flatten this weekend, and may see disturbance tracking into the midwest during this weekend especially by Sunday. A few model members shows some convection chances as early as Saturday over the IL river valley, while more members wait until Sunday for convection chances, though GEM and Ecmwf are dry thru the weekend. NBM keeps pops low this weekend with 20% pops over IL river valley Sat and Sat evening and 20-40% pops overnight Sat night and Sunday. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC)8-14 Day outlook for Aug 31-Sep 6th has a 35-45% chance of above normal temperatures over central/se IL and 33-40% below normal precipitation from Quincy to Danville north and trending near normal south. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 High pressure will be in place over central Illinois most of the period resulting in light and variable winds. Fog is the primary concern overnight into Monday morning and may be possible again after the current TAF period Monday night into Tuesday morning. Outside of fog, VFR conditions will prevail the remainder of the period with some high based diurnal cumulus developing Monday afternoon and increasing mid level clouds late in the period. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...07 DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...Deubelbeiss  177 FXUS61 KILN 240505 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 105 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry and cool conditions are expected through the first of the week. Thunderstorm chances return for Wednesday night into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Surface high pressure will shift slowly east across the mid Ohio Valley region through Tuesday. This will lead to dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 70s, moderating a bit for Tuesday when highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A weak mid level short wave will drop down across the southern Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday. This will bring some lower end chances for showers and thunderstorms for mid week. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Lingering shower activity has moved off to our east. Some spotty VFR stratocu will persist into the overnight hours. Meanwhile, some river valley fog will develop through the predawn hours and this could lead to some MVFR to IFR vsby restrictions. Any fog will lift through mid morning with just scattered VFR cu development heading into this afternoon. The cu will dissipate this evening leaving mostly clear skies tonight. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGL AVIATION...JGL  172 FXUS63 KMQT 240505 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 105 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect today for the shoreline of Alger County due to strong winds and high waves creating dangerous rip currents and swimming conditions. - The next chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms arrives in the west Tuesday PM, spreading east overnight and ending for most late Wednesday. - Generally seasonable temperatures are expected through the rest of this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Late morning GOES-East Day Cloud Phase RGB imagery and KMQT radar reflectivity show a few bands of isolated to scattered light rain showers this morning over mainly the central UP with bands of clouds across the rest of the UP. Temperatures at 850mb of around 5 C are above a Lake Superior that ranges from 12 C to 20 C, which ranges from "good enough for lake effect clouds" to "good enough for lake effect showers", reflecting the variable effects of lake effect that is ongoing this morning. Impacts will be low to none as the showers are not particularly intense, but it may keep temperatures from breaking out of the 60s today for all except for the south-central and Isle Royale which will see less clouds today. The brisk northwesterly flow today will continue, and the wind-driven waves of 5-7 ft east of Marquette from 1-5 miles out from the shores will drive a high risk of dangerous swim conditions including rip currents. RAP analysis shows a 1004mb low pressure over the Ontario/Quebec line with broad 1018-1020mb high pressure stretching from far northwestern Ontario to Missouri. The low is vertically stacked with deep 500mb troughing extending over much of eastern North America, opposed by a 500mb ridge spanning from the Four Corners region to the Canadian Prairie. While the trough will not be moving much tonight, the ridge axis will pivot from the Canadian Prairie towards the Manitoba/Ontario line, which will advance the high pressure towards the UP and clear out skies for most after 00Z. As the high brings relaxing winds, efficient radiational cooling will allow temperatures to plummet in the interior west tonight, with a few interior western locations reaching the mid 30s (wouldn't be surprised if Alberta Ford Center or other traditional cold spots dipped to freezing). This will result in some patches of frost (especially on elevated surfaces or low spots where cold air pools), however, with the prior August heat still hanging on in the soil temperatures, widespread frost is not forecast, so an advisory will not be sent this shift. However, some caution should still be taken for those in the interior west with sensitive vegetation. Also, with temperatures falling overnight, a few patches of fog cannot be ruled out in areas sheltered from the wind in the west (around 20% chance). As high pressure establishes itself over the region, dry weather and seasonable temperatures are expected Monday into Tuesday. Meanwhile, a 500mb trough currently over eastern Washington and southeast British Columbia will complete its journey around the northern periphery of the western CONUS ridge, arriving around the Northwest Angle Tuesday afternoon. This will drive significant PVA and also support a surface low of 1005-1010mb arriving near western Lake Superior by 00Z Wednesday. Moisture advects into the region ahead of the cold front and PWATs climb to 1-1.25 inches. Directional wind shear will certainly be present as southerly to southwesterly low level flow is contrasted with the westerly to northwesterly flow aloft, though speed shear is somewhat lacking as LREF 500mb winds by 00Z Wednesday around the interior west are only around 25 kt. Instability is likely going to be sufficient for thunderstorms as Euro ensemble MUCAPE is 40-60% likely to exceed 750 J/kg for the far western UP by 00Z Wed. Instability probabilities fall off overnight, but by 18Z Wed, mean MUCAPE values for the east half are widespread over 1000 J/kg, though uncertainty in the available forcing by Wednesday afternoon to realize such an uncertain airmass (and paltry shear profiles to organize buoyant updrafts) casts doubt on the severe weather potential, though unorganized thunderstorms with plenty of available moisture can still bring notable rainfall, with the LREF probability of 0.5+ inches of rain by 06Z Thursday widespread 40-70%. With 850mb temperatures around 60% likely to fall to around 8 C, some lingering light lake effect showers (or at least, cloud cover) is possible for Thursday into Friday. Models diverge on solutions beyond then as different members of different ensemble suites handle the persistent Four Corners ridge and troughs over Hudson Bay and southwestern Canada differently, but at least some period of ridging seems reasonable to bring dry weather to the UP to kick off the weekend before the next ridge-riding shortwave arrives. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A surface ridge will build over the region tonight into Monday bringing fair weather. Winds will be mainly light except for gusts to 20kt at SAW during the mid-morning through early afternoon as mixing increases. A lake breeze will bring a wind shift to the northeast during the afternoon at SAW, ending the potential for wind gusts from mixing. && .MARINE... Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Northwest wind gusts continue especially over the east half of Lake Superior at 25-30 kt into tonight, with European ensemble probabilities of gales at 15 percent or less. Wind gusts linger around 20-25 kt early Monday before falling below 20 kt Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon with high pressure settling over the region. Southerly to southeasterly wind gusts of around 25 kt pick up Tuesday night ahead of an approaching cold front, with winds turning northwesterly behind the front by Thursday morning, including a few gale force gusts to 35 kt possible (20-40% chance particularly south of Stannard Rock). Winds quickly relax below 20 kt Thursday night into Friday as uncertainty in the forecast grows into the weekend. Along the midweek cold front will be 20-40% chances of thunderstorms. Ongoing waves of 4-7 ft fall below 3 ft Monday afternoon before increasing again to 4-7 ft in the southeast part of the lake Thursday morning through Thursday night. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MIZ006. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...GS AVIATION...NL MARINE...GS  279 FXUS61 KAKQ 240507 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 107 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable humidity through Wednesday. Mainly dry outside of isolated sea- breeze showers today. 2) Unsettled conditions return mid to late week with daily chances for showers/storms. && .DISCUSSION... As of 230 PM EDT Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable humidity through Wednesday. Mainly dry outside of isolated sea- breeze showers today. Drier air is filtering into the area as a cold front moves offshore and high pressure fills in behind. Dewpoints have dropped into the low to mid 60s for much of the area with values in the 50s just to the west. Coastal areas are still a tad more humid with dewpoints still in the upper 60s, but that's an improvement compared to recent weeks. The drier air combined with mostly sunny skies and temps in the 80s all add up for a gorgeous late August day. If the forecasted seabreeze can get going, it may be enough to trigger a few isolated showers near the coast later this afternoon. These should be fairly light and brief given the drier airmass moving in. The pleasant conditions continue through the early week period with the sfc high remaining in place. KEY MESSAGE 2... Unsettled conditions return mid to late week with daily chances for showers/storms. Global models indicate that the sfc high slides offshore sometime Wed/Thurs and the flow aloft shifts back to the SW allowing for moisture return to the Mid-Atlantic. Highs will be near 90 Wed through the weekend and the humidity returns as well as daily chances for afternoon thunderstorms. As of now, Thurs looks like the day for most widespread storms when another front comes through. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 105 AM EDT Monday... VFR conditions prevail through the 06z TAF period, outside of very patchy ground fog near ECG early this morning. Light and variable winds this morning become W-SW 5-10 kt this afternoon. FEW/SCT CU likely develop as heating/mixing gets underway late morning through the afternoon. Outlook: Dry and prevailing VFR conditions expected through the mid week period. && .MARINE... As of 1225 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Generally benign marine conditions are expected through the weekend into early next week. - A brief SE surge is possible late Wednesday into early Wednesday night. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail this weekend through much of next week. A cold front continues to move east across the local waters this afternoon. However, elevated winds are not expected behind the front. Instead, NW winds of 5-10 kt early this afternoon become variable through tonight. Will note that a secondary cold front pushes through overnight, allowing for NW winds after ~2 AM. High pressure builds in Mon with light and variable winds continuing. Another weak cold front pushes across the local waters Mon night with winds becoming N 10-15 kt. Winds gradually diminish Tue as weak onshore flow develops (5-10 kt). The only potential for low-end SCA conditions appears to be late Wed into Wed night as SE winds increase to ~15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt behind a warm front. However, confidence is low at this time with the current model consensus showing winds remaining sub- SCA. Otherwise, waves mainly around 1 foot (occasionally 1-2 ft) and seas mainly around 2 feet (occasionally 2-3 ft) continue through the week. Given 1-2 ft nearshore waves, the rip current risk remains low through Wed. Will note that long period swell of 10-12 seconds continues through Wed which could result in some rip currents. However, given the relatively flat nearshore waves, current thinking is that the rip current risk will remain below moderate. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AC AVIATION...SW MARINE...RMM  314 FXUS63 KICT 240507 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1207 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms are possible tonight through Monday morning with potential for large hail, damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. - Periodic rain chances are possible through next weekend with the main chances in the evenings through the overnight hours. - Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures are expected through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 An upper trough is currently over the eastern CONUS with ridging over much of the Plains and into the southwest US. An upper shortwave trough is sliding across the northwestern US into the Northern Rockies. In our area, scattered showers continue across portions of central KS due to 850-700 mb WAA. This late afternoon into this evening, slight chances for showers and storms will be possible in eastern Kansas as 850 mb WAA continues. Strong to severe storms appear unlikely with this activity due to the lack of instability. As we move into late tonight and the overnight hours, additional storm chances will be possible for areas along and east of I-135 with the best chances in southeast KS as 700 mb WAA continues. Strong to marginally severe storms will be possible with this activity as MUCAPE values are generally around 1000 J/kg with 30-40 kts of effective shear and mid-level lapse rates greater than 7 C/km. The main hazard will likely be large hail but isolated damaging winds cannot be ruled out. PWATs are around 1.7" which is greater than the 75th percentile for this time of year, leading to efficient rainfall with any storm that develops. If numerous storms continue to track over the same area, localized flooding concerns may be possible. Moving into Monday morning, scattered showers and storms may linger from overnight activity in areas along and east of the Flint Hills with this activity expected to shift east by late Monday morning. High temperatures will rise back into the 90s with the warmest readings anticipated in south-central KS. For Monday night, mostly dry conditions are expected before slight rain chances start to increase in northern Kansas, closer to early Tuesday morning as a weak shortwave slides across the region. For Tuesday, high temperatures will once again rise into the low to mid 90s across our area. As we move towards Tuesday night into Wednesday, rain chances will increase as a stronger shortwave moves into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes area, pushing a frontal boundary south into the Central Plains. Showers and storms may be possible along this weak boundary, though timing and coverage are still uncertain with this activity. For Wednesday and beyond, the upper air pattern will generally remain unchanged, keeping the Plains in northwesterly flow aloft. This will allow embedded shortwaves to continue ejecting out into the region, keeping periodic rain chances possible into next weekend. The main rain chances will be in the evenings through the overnight hours each night. For temperatures, highs will remain in the 90s with values around or slight above normal temperatures for this time of year. Lows will be in the upper 60s to around 70 across the area. For next weekend, triple digit heat is possible to return as the upper ridge axis shifts towards the Northern Plains. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end of the period. East/southeast winds are forecast to persist over the next 24 hours with speeds generally around/below 10 kts. We continue to see the potential for elevated showers and storms early this morning, particularly along/east of the Flint Hills. While a few showers can't be ruled out at ICT, confidence was too low for a mention at this time. Confidence in timing of impacts at CNU remains high, with minimal adjustments to the -TSRA mention from the 00Z cycle. Rain chances should depart southeast KS by mid morning. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...GC AVIATION...JWK  278 FXUS64 KBMX 240507 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1207 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1204 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026 - Heat: Minor to moderate heat risk will continue through this week. Heat indices are forecast to remain below 105 degrees. - Storms: There is level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across the southern portions of Alabama for Monday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1204 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026 The radar is clear across Central Alabama late this evening with only a few storms near the Gulf Coast. Our surface boundary of late has progressed today to the southern third of Alabama and has stalled. It is expected to linger in this area through the short term through early Tuesday. In the upper levels, a low is present over Ontario and Quebec and southward into the Great Lakes and much of Eastern Conus. At the same time, there is also a large ridge that extends from Arizona to Texas. This leaves Central Alabama in a northwest flow regime. Look for isolated to scattered waves of convection at times through Monday, generally in the southern third of Central Alabama with heating, more so toward the coast. On Tuesday, the surface boundary is expected to meander back northward before fizzling out on Wednesday. However, the northwest flow will assist in another front making it into the area in the Thursday/Friday time frame. This will keep unsettled conditions along with scattered slightly higher storm chances in through the latter part of the forecast as moisture increases. Guidance with this late week front has it likely stalling across Central Alabama as well next weekend. Through much of the 7 day forecast, a few upper lows rotate through the current trough area over Eastern Canada and the Great Lakes with varying degrees of southward progression into Eastern Conus, but overall some degree of troughing remains through the end of this week. Our Southwest US ridge remains as well until Friday. The difference from yesterday's guidance is that we could see an expansion of the ridge eastward across the Southern US this weekend. This will mean higher pops Wednesday into Friday, but by next weekend we could see a warming trend if the ridge expands. 08 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026 Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected in greater coverage this afternoon. At this time, confidence was only high enough to carry a PROB30 group at MGM through 25/01z for TSRA. Otherwise, VFR conditions are set to prevail for the rest of this TAF period. Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage. /44/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air may be slow to vacate the area with one more day possible for lower minimum relative humidity values (35 to 45%) for some locations on Monday. However, wind speeds are expected to remain light, which should negate any significant fire weather concerns. Moisture gradually begins as we head into midweek. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 92 66 93 67 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 91 66 91 67 / 10 0 0 10 Birmingham 92 70 93 71 / 10 10 10 10 Tuscaloosa 95 72 95 72 / 20 10 10 10 Calera 92 70 93 70 / 10 10 10 10 Auburn 90 71 90 71 / 20 20 10 10 Montgomery 95 72 94 71 / 30 20 20 10 Troy 94 70 93 70 / 30 20 30 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION.../44/  254 FXUS66 KPDT 240506 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1006 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above-normal temperatures Monday through Wednesday as an upper-level ridge of high pressure builds overhead then shifts east to the northern Rockies. - Very low chance (5-15%) of showers and thunderstorms for the southern Blue Mountains on Monday, and for the northern Blue Mountains on Tuesday. - Breezy westerly winds Wednesday, with low-medium probability (20-60%) of Red Flag conditions in the Columbia Basin and Cascade gaps. && .DISCUSSION... Water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low exiting the region to the east over southern Canada and the northern Rockies. Meanwhile, a large, upper-level closed low is churning in the Gulf of Alaska, and a somewhat smaller and weaker closed low is located to our west in the eastern Pacific. At the surface, widespread breezy conditions are present beneath dry zonal flow in the wake of the low, with the most notable winds through the Cascade gaps, Columbia Basin, and Blue Mountain foothills. Temperatures are seasonably cool, a few degrees below normal. An upper-level ridge of high pressure is forecast to build overhead tonight into Monday and gradually shift east over the northern Rockies through Wednesday. This will result in warming, mostly dry conditions areawide. Above-normal temperatures are anticipated to peak in the 90s for most areas on Tuesday, with portions of northeast Oregon seeing similar temperatures on Wednesday. Accompanying HeatRisk looks to peak Tuesday/Wednesday with medium-high (50-100%) probability of Moderate (level 2 of 4) HeatRisk for the majority of our population centers. A few areas of the Columbia Basin have low-medium (10-45%) chances of Major (level 3 of 4) HeatRisk. Moderate HeatRisk affects those who are sensitive to heat, especially those without cooling/hydration, while Major HeatRisk affects anyone without cooling/hydration. While mostly dry conditions are forecast Monday through Wednesday, would be remiss for not mentioning the low probabilities (5-15%) of convection each day. Ensemble NWP guidance is in excellent agreement that the aforementioned lows will slowly approach the Pacific Northwest by later Monday, with a weak shortwave embedded in southwest flow aloft passing over northern California and southeast Oregon late afternoon and evening. This will present a low (5-15%) chance of high-based showers and thunderstorms for the far southern Blue Mountains. Any showers and thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing strong, gusty outflow winds. Tuesday, guidance merges the two offshore lows, and wraps a weak shortwave (the remnants of the smaller low) up the Pacific coast. While the wave is not forecast to move inland across our forecast area, weak synoptic-scale forcing coupled modest diurnally induced instability, negative mid-level theta-e lapse rates, and very marginal mid-level moisture indicate some potential for afternoon convection. Best chances (5-15%) are for the northern Blue Mountains, and the rest of far northeast Oregon. By Wednesday, guidance shows yet another shortwave swinging around the parent offshore low, with low (5-15%) chances of convection again over the Blue Mountains. There is higher confidence (20-60%) in overlap of breezy winds and critically low relative humidity in the Columbia Basin and Cascade gaps Wednesday, per NBM probabilities. Thursday through the remainder of the week, anticipating near- normal temperatures and diurnally breezy westerly winds through the Cascade gaps. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Brief periods of smoke making its way down to the surface in the overnight hours bringing MVFR conditions is possible across sites in the Columbia Basin and Foothills of the Blues (5 to 15 percent chance). Otherwise winds are generally light and variable. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 49 91 54 93 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 55 93 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 53 93 56 95 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 57 90 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 53 92 57 95 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 51 86 57 92 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 45 91 50 94 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 49 93 55 97 / 0 0 0 10 GCD 52 95 56 95 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 59 93 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for WAZ026-522-523. OR...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for ORZ041-044-049-050- 502-503-505>507-509>511. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...95  670 FXUS62 KTAE 240510 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 110 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 107 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Daily chances of showers and storms will continue for the next several days. Overall, rain chances are lowest for today, then increase through the workweek. The strongest storms are expected to produce wind gusts of 40-60 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain. An SPC Marginal Risk of severe storms is in effect through Tuesday. - Another heat advisory may be needed for Monday across our Florida counties. && .UPDATE... Issued at 950 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The only changes of note to tonight's forecast were to introduce mentionable PoP for a decaying thunderstorm cluster pushing south across Apalachee Bay and adding "patchy fog" to the point-and- click wx grids for parts of the Eastern FL Big Bend into the I-75 corridor. Some isolated showers may develop some tonight later tonight near the AL Wiregrass into the Western FL Panhandle thanks to the presence of a lingering frontal boundary. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Monday) Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 An SPC Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms remains in effect for the rest of today into the evening. Although a watch is not anticipated, low level lapse rates and PW will be sufficient in a northwest flow regime to allow for wet microbursts to produce marginally damaging winds in isolated storms through this evening. A stalled front to the north and existing outflow boundaries are potential triggering mechanisms. Coverage of storms will increase on Monday and another SPC Marginal Risk for severe storms is already in place due to the continued combination of a northwest flow regime, deep moisture and low level instability. A WPC Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall is also in place. Uncertainty in timing of development of convection and associated cloud cover precludes the issuance of a heat advisory at this time, especially considering how the current advisory is not panning out. However, forecast heat indices currently support one for our FL counties as well as South GA from Lowndes County east along the FL border to Lake Seminole. The overnight shift will reassess. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Tuesday and Wednesday will be carbon copies of Monday with SPC and WPC marginal risks in place. Heat advisory criteria does not appear in jeopardy. Rain chances will increase for Thursday and Friday as a front approaches from the northwest. Near normal rain chances and temperatures are forecast for the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 107 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions prevail most of the morning with some potential of some IFR visibility/ceilings near dawn. Amendments may be needed if we see any fog and/or stratus develop between 09Z and 13Z. A nearby front combined with the seabreeze will help spark scattered showers and storms this afternoon. Convection dies down near or just after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Gentle to occasionally moderate southwesterly flow will continue over the waters for the next several days. Scattered showers and storms are possible each day, mainly in the overnight and morning hours, decreasing in the afternoon. The main exception will be for any clusters of storms that move off the coast this week during the late afternoon or evening hours. Seas will remain around 1 to 2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Generally light west to southwest transport winds will continue through the next several days. Dispersions will remain good overall each afternoon. Increasing coverage of storms are expected Monday and Tuesday. Gusty, erratic winds and dangerous lightning strikes will be possible. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 There is a WPC Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall across the region from Monday through Thursday. Storms could produce locally heavy rainfall over the next several days. If the storms are slow- moving, then they could produce several inches of rain in a short period of time. This would lead to some nuisance to isolated flash flood concerns, particularly in low- lying or poor drainage areas. River flooding is not expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 75 93 73 94 / 50 80 20 70 Panama City 78 90 77 90 / 60 70 40 50 Dothan 73 93 73 94 / 40 50 10 50 Albany 73 95 73 95 / 40 30 10 30 Valdosta 73 94 72 94 / 40 70 20 50 Cross City 74 92 73 92 / 50 80 20 50 Apalachicola 78 89 78 89 / 50 70 30 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wool LONG TERM....Wool AVIATION...Reese MARINE...Wool FIRE WEATHER...Wool HYDROLOGY...Wool  819 FXUS64 KLUB 240514 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1214 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1210 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Very hot temperatures continue Monday and Tuesday with possible record breaking highs on Monday. - Elevated fire conditions expected Monday afternoon with breezy southwesterly winds and low RH values. - Thunderstorm chances every evening from Monday through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The rest of tonight will be quiet and with unseasonably warm lows. Lows will range from the lower 70s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to lower 80s across the eastern portions of the Rolling Plains. Light southerly winds will gradually shift to the west through the overnight hours as a surface low to the north of the forecast area shifts to the southeast. Winds are also expected to increase to around 15 mph through the morning and early afternoon hours. Winds will weaken and become variable through the late afternoon and evening hours as the surface low continues to move away from the region and a boundary looks to move in from the north. Very similar to the past few days, the upper ridging will remain over the region Monday resulting in very hot temperatures again. Temperatures will range from 104 to 109 degrees on the Caprock and up to 113 degrees off the Caprock. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and the Rolling Plains and a Heat Advisory is in effect for the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and South Plains from noon until 8 PM Monday. Record breaking high temperatures are possible at both KLBB and KCDS. The current daily high temperature for KLBB is 104 degrees set in 2024 and KCDS is 109 degrees set in 1936. The forecast highs for KLBB and KCDS are 106 and 110 degrees, respectively. With breezy winds through much of the afternoon and RH values dropping as low as 12 percent, elevated fire conditions will be possible Monday, especially during the afternoon. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect for the far southern Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and Rolling Plains from noon until 8 PM Monday. A surface trough across CO/NM will result in isolated to maybe scattered thunderstorms developing across eastern NM. There is a slight chance for these thunderstorms to sneak into our forecast area, especially across areas on the Caprock, late Monday afternoon through the evening. Not expecting much from these storms, however could see gusty outflows and plenty of lightning. A boundary pushing in from the north could prolong storms through the overnight hours. However, the chances for that are low. Once the storms clear the region, the rest of the night is expected to be quiet with lows in the upper 60s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and lower 80s across the southern Rolling Plains. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Luckily, Monday will be the hottest day of the week and Tuesday will be the start of a "cool" down the rest of the week. The upper ridging that parked over the region the past few days will finally begin to retreat west on Tuesday. Models are in agreement the upper ridging will remain over the Desert Southwest through the latter half of the week. Although Tuesday will be slightly cooler compared to Monday, high temperatures will remain in the triple digits. Highs off the Caprock will be around Heat Advisory temperatures(105-109 degrees), therefore can expect a Heat Advisory issued in future forecasts. High temperatures the rest of the week will range from mid 90s to just below Heat Advisory temperatures. Multiple passing embedded shortwaves will bring thunderstorm chances every late afternoon and evening from Tuesday through Thursday. Sadly, models are indicating the upper ridging will push back east over the region through the weekend bringing dry conditions and very hot temperatures again. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR is expected through the TAF period with extremely hot temperatures. Check density altitude. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>023-027>030-033>036-039>041. Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032-037-038-042>044. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...01  828 FXUS64 KOHX 240514 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1214 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1212 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Look for dry, cooler evening and overnight periods through Tuesday morning. Fog is possible across the river valleys each morning. - Low to medium rain and storm chances return Wednesday and Wednesday night, then taper off on Thursday. But no hazardous weather is expected for the foreseeable future. - Temperatures from Wednesday through the weekend will stay close to seasonal norms, then perhaps a little warmer to start off next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday Night) Issued at 953 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Temperatures are cooling off quite nicely this evening and low dew points are allowing for excellent radiation cooling across Middle Tennessee. We've got couple of cool nights in store, along with non-existent rain chances the next couple of days. This evening, high pressure centered over the upper midwest is keeping the air mass over Middle Tennessee dry and a little cooler than seasonal norms, while we remain underneath a northwest flow aloft with ridging situated to our west. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 953 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Our next rain chances start to develop on Wednesday as a surface low comes together over the Arklatex and develops a boundary across the Gulf Coast states and into the Tennessee Valley. It's not a lot to work with, but we do introduce low to medium PoPs Wednesday and Wednesday night, with rain chances tapering off on Thursday as the system pulls off to the east. Although there will be some storm chances, QPF values are somewhat anemic, and we certainly aren't outlooked for any severe storms for the foreseeable future. Temperatures will warm up to seasonal values by Wednesday, with readings staying close to seasonal norms through the weekend, then warming up a bit to start off next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions with light winds expected throughout this cycle. The only exception should be MVFR vis at SRB prior to 12Z/Mon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 89 62 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 87 61 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 82 58 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 90 63 91 65 / 0 0 0 10 Cookeville 83 60 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 82 58 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 88 62 90 64 / 0 0 0 10 Murfreesboro 89 62 91 64 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 88 64 89 65 / 0 0 0 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Rose SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Unger  946 FXUS63 KABR 240518 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1218 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) across central SD and a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) along and west of the James River this evening. The main concerns will be golf ball size hail, wind gusts exceeding 60 mph, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall. - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather Monday night. Threat include one golf ball size hail and 60-75 mph gusts. && .UPDATE... Issued at 856 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Severe storm activity has been confined to northwest SD this evening as cells continue to move south-southeast over UNR CWA. Will maintain small PoPs (20-30%) across the western CWA this evening, but even this might be a bit overdone. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A weak upper level trough of low pressure currently over western ND still may become the focal point for showers and storms impacting the western CWA later this evening. A few showers and storms are ongoing, with some model guidance suggesting modest intensity over the next few hours. However, the best low level moisture and instability is located mainly west of the CWA, with SBCAPE exceeding 1K J/kg over western SD. Across much of eastern ND, and northeastern SD, surface dewpoints in the 50s with limited moisture advection at this time. As of now, the RRFS is the more robust model solution with convection developing over the western Dakotas. The storms in western SD move eastward toward the CWA around 23-0Z before diminishing. It still maintains a convection complex over southwest ND moving southward into north central SD after 1Z. The lack of a LLJ may limit the overall severe threat with the RRFS showing the storms weakening with time. The past few runs of the HRRR keeps most of the CWA free from severe weather. Overall, the severe threat is best west of the Missouri River where a few storms may produce golf ball size hail and 60-75 mph wind gusts. The pcpn should exit the CWA before 12Z Monday. A frontal boundary will cross the region Monday through Monday night may produce an isolated storm during the day period. Models due indicate convection developing after 0Z Tuesday, with eastern ND having a good potential for storms. A lee of the Black Hills surface low may cause additional storms over central and south central SD. While widespread severe weather is not anticipated, a stronger storm or two could produce golf ball size hail and wind gusts of 60 to 75 mph. After dry conditions midweek, chances for precipitation returns to the forecast area Thursday night through the weekend. Temperatures remain at or above average for this time of year. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TMT DISCUSSION...17 AVIATION...20  056 FXUS64 KMRX 240520 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 120 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 114 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Dry conditions with more comfortable humidity levels through Tuesday. - Shower and thunderstorm chances will return Wednesday and especially Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 114 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 In the upper levels, a deep trough remains over the East Coast as a ridge stays centered over the Rocky Mountains. Temperatures will be cooler this morning with lows in the 60s for most of the Tennessee Valley and in the 50s in Northeast Tennessee, Southwest Virginia and the higher elevations. Some patchy fog will be possible mainly near bodies of water. Today and tomorrow will be dry with low humidity as high pressure remains over the Ohio Valley. Highs will be in the 80s for most of the Tennessee Valley, sorry Chattanooga (90-92). Dew points will be pleasant in the 50s at times. Rain chances start to increase on Wednesday as a shortwave moves into the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, a stationary boundary will likely be over the Southeast U.S., bringing a chance for showers and storms Wednesday evening and into the overnight hours. Thursday afternoon will have the highest rain chances as a shortwave moves through the Ohio Valley. Friday through the weekend looks mostly dry as the trough weakens. Some afternoon showers and storms will be possible mainly near the mountains and foothills. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 114 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Patchy fog again possible early this morning, but lower confidence of occurrence this morning on account of the drier airmass in place. Fog should be fairly isolated around fog-prone locations. Post sunrise clearing any fog out, the remainder of the day is dry with VFR conditions and light winds under high pressure. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 65 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 61 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 87 61 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 56 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...McD AVIATION...Wellington  171 FXUS62 KFFC 240522 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 122 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry for North Georgia and low chances for thunderstorms (15-20%) across parts of Central Georgia through Tuesday. - Daily rain chances will be on the upswing by mid to late week as a frontal boundary approaches. - Seasonal temperatures are largely expected through the week ahead. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 232 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Calm weather is expected through the short term. Dry conditions behind a cold front will limit our thunderstorm chances to minimal, and contained to the southern parts of the CWA. Winds will be out of the NW at 5 to 10 mph with gusts as high as 15 mph. Drier weather is expected to expand further into the CWA tomorrow with RH values in the afternoon dropping down into the 35% range, making conditions feel downright lovely for this time of year. Light and variable winds are expected overnight before picking up to 5 to 10 mph again under mostly clear skies. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday morning through next Saturday) Issued at 232 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 As the long term period begins, the axis of a longwave trough will be centered over the Atlantic coast, which will keep much of Georgia underneath northwesterly upper level flow. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will be sliding across the Midwest. The combination of these factors will keep weather conditions dry and benign across the majority of the forecast area for one more day on Tuesday. Low temperatures will start the morning in the low to mid 60s across north Georgia (and even some upper 50s in the highest elevations) and in the upper 60s and low 70s in central Georgia. Highs will climb into the low 90s in north Georgia and mid 90s in central Georgia on Tuesday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in portions of south-central Georgia during the peak heating hours, while dry air will keep chances minimal across the remainder of the forecast area. Atmospheric moisture will gradually over during the middle part of the week, and weak disturbances traversing the northwesterly flow will provide opportunity for thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon and evening. On Thursday, another trough moving across the Great Lakes will advance a front towards far north Georgia. The front will gradually work its way southeast through the forecast area on Thursday into Friday. Forcing ahead of the front and increase moisture will lead to scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the later part of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 119 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR expected at all sites through the period. High cirrus overnight with FEW to SCT Cu 5-7kft by Monday afternoon. Light vrb wind tonight increasing to NW-NNW up to 8kts by 17z Monday. Iso shra/tsra should stay south of CSG/MCN Monday afternoon and no impacts are expected. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... High confidence on all elements. 07 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 65 92 68 93 / 0 0 0 20 Atlanta 68 93 71 93 / 0 0 0 40 Blairsville 60 86 63 86 / 0 0 0 30 Cartersville 64 92 68 93 / 0 0 0 30 Columbus 71 94 72 95 / 0 10 10 40 Gainesville 65 90 68 91 / 0 0 0 30 Macon 70 94 70 94 / 0 10 10 40 Rome 63 91 66 92 / 0 0 0 20 Peachtree City 66 93 68 93 / 0 0 0 40 Vidalia 72 95 72 95 / 10 40 30 40 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vaughn LONG TERM....King AVIATION...07  186 FXUS62 KMLB 240522 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 122 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms will persist through the week, with the highest coverage expected from mid to late week. A few storms will be capable of producing gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph, particularly today and Tuesday. - Seasonably hot and humid conditions are expected through the week. Those working or recreating outdoors should take frequent breaks and stay hydrated. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 -----------Synoptic Overview----------- A rather amplified upper-air pattern remains in place across the U.S. early this morning. An unseasonably cool trough sits over the eastern Great Lakes, with additional jet stream energy passing close to Glacier NP. Meanwhile, anomalous ridging extends from the Chihuahuan Desert to the Greater Antilles. A weakness in the ridge axis remains over Florida, where a weak shortwave trough currently resides. Through at least Wednesday, the break in the ridge will remain very close to Florida as additional weak ripples of vorticity reinforce this general pattern. Then, from late week and into next weekend, global ensembles indicate that heights will build over the state as the Bermuda high attempts to establish itself closer to the Bahamas. Expect the near-surface ridge axis to remain near or south of Central Florida through at least Wednesday. Thereafter, surface high pressure should become focused very close to or immediately north of the local area. PWAT (total moisture) values are forecast to sink slightly below normal early this week before climbing toward climatological norms for the rest of the forecast period. -------Sensible Weather & Impacts------- Today - Tuesday... The overall setup will not change too much as we begin the work week, aside from slightly drier air briefly filtering overhead. With broad light offshore flow and an expected sea breeze each afternoon, at least scattered showers and storms are forecast. Chances range from 30-40% today up to 30-60% on Tuesday, with the highest chances on Tuesday near and north of Orlando. Storms may linger into the evening due to late boundary collisions. While the drier air should limit overall coverage a bit, it may also favor stronger downdrafts in storms that develop. There is a low chance for wind gusts up to 50-55 mph. High temps will be hot, in the low to mid 90s each afternoon. Heat indices peak at 100 to 107. Wednesday - Friday... As high pressure nudges essentially overhead, the low-level sea breeze circulation will be the dominant force for storm development each day. Light offshore flow in the mid-levels will try to steer showers and storms back toward the coast in the evening hours. As moisture returns to normal, this portends fairly high coverage of afternoon and early evening showers and storms for east central Florida (50-70%). Seasonably hot conditions continue, with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat indices of 100 to 107. Next Weekend... Near-normal moisture remains in place with high pressure strengthening nearby or just northeast of the local area. Scattered afternoon and evening storms should continue, but the focus may shift over the interior as mid-level offshore flow weakens. Continued seasonable heat and humidity. && .MARINE... Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Near-surface high pressure rests close to the Florida Straits, with weak offshore flow interrupted by the afternoon sea breeze. By the middle of the week, the ridge axis lifts closer to the local Atlantic waters. A few showers andstorms are possible, especially at night over the Gulf Stream. Some evening storms may move offshore early in the work week. Light S to SW breezes up to 10 kt, turning SE in the afternoon up to 12 kt with the sea breeze. Seas generally less than 2 feet. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Light S/SW winds through 15Z Mon then Atlc sea breeze will develop and shift winds E/SE near 10 knots at coastal terminals by 17Z. With some drier air and lighter steering flow, do not expect too early of a start to convection. In fact it could be quite late across the interior (MCO/SFB) assocd with the sea breeze collision. So have added a PROB30 for MCO/SFB from 20Z-24Z as well as for the Treasure coast terminals (VRB-SUA) due to boundary interactions with the Okeechobee lake breeze and steering flow back toward the coast. Potential exists for gusty winds 35-45 knots in the stronger storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 93 75 92 74 / 30 10 50 20 MCO 95 76 94 76 / 40 10 50 10 MLB 93 77 93 76 / 30 10 40 20 VRB 93 75 92 75 / 30 10 30 20 LEE 93 75 92 75 / 40 10 60 10 SFB 94 75 93 75 / 40 10 50 20 ORL 94 77 94 76 / 40 10 50 10 FPR 93 75 92 75 / 30 10 30 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Heil AVIATION...Kelly  176 FXUS65 KCYS 240522 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1122 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lower coverage of showers and thunderstorms today, mainly further south near the Colorado border and western Nebraska. Brief strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall expected with this activity into this evening. - Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue Monday through the end of the week with slightly above average temperature expected until Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 252 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Another active afternoon and evening is forecast. Storms have already begun to appear on radar early this afternoon, albeit not many. Coverage of storms will likely be less than yesterday with more dry air present from westerly winds aloft. A weak dryline is also present on observations across the CWA, roughly running along the Interstate 25 corridor. Behind the dryline remains fairly quiet with just a few cumulus fields. Ahead of the dryline is where storms currently are in Nebraska. The Nebraska panhandle is also where the highest instability is, with mesoanalysis suggesting more than 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE. Shear is decent, but likely not enough to get very strong storms. A few isolated severe storms are likely, with initial discrete cells posing a hail risk. As afternoon progresses to evening, the threat will switch to more of a wind one, with storm clusters entering the far western portion of the CWA. The intensity of these storms will be weaker than the ones in the Nebraska panhandle, but severe wind gusts will still be possible due to DCAPE values in excess of 1200 J/kg from the dry surface. Showers and storms will continue through the evening hours with a few lingering showers possible after midnight. Rinse and repeat the same song and dance again for Monday. The environment looks similar to Sunday but with better forcing from an upper-level shortwave moving through the ridge. Coverage and intensity of storms on Monday will likely depend largely on where the weak dryline can set up. Some models push the dryline far enough east out of the CWA where the more intense storms will not impact the forecast area. Newer CAM guidance has begun to recede the dryline further back into the Nebraska panhandle which will likely result in storm development during the afternoon hours. Initial discrete cells that develop will pose more of hail threat, but will shift more towards a wind threat as they cluster. Much like Sunday, showers and weaker storms will enter the western portion of the CWA during the evening and move eastward. Wind will be the primary concern with these given the drier low-levels and high DCAPE values. Severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Showers will linger through the overnight hours. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 252 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 No major changes to the overall long term forecast as we see conditions slightly warmer than average to start the period and then by the end of the week into next weekend we warm back up to several degrees above average with monsoonal moisture providing a daily chance of thunderstorms with a low end severe risk generally expected each day. At the upper levels, a strong ridge of high pressure will control the Western US, and should continue to hold control until the end of the week when a deep low will approach the western Canadian coastline. This feature may begin to move inland and could interrupt our pattern by late next weekend, but until then expect largely similar conditions each day. Moisture at the surface may begin to slowly dwindle, and by the late week into the weekend elevated fire weather concerns may begin to arise as minimum daytime RH values drop back into the teens. Still, daily PWAT values will sit around 120-130% of normal, and between daytime instability and weak disturbances riding the periphery of the ridge, we should still see thunderstorm chances each afternoon with a low end severe threat possible. At the surface meanwhile, a cold front will stall out on Tuesday and then begin advancing back eastwards as a warm front but should become very slow moving to even stationary, helping to fuel storm initiation through the end of the week. Overall it will be more of the same as we remain in a fairly stagnant pattern through the period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1122 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals for the duration of this TAF period. An exception may be where a shower and/or thunderstorm comes near or over a site, reducing CIGs and VIS briefly to possibly MVFR or lower if a storm becomes intense. So, confidence isn't high in timing and coverage, so PROB30 groups have been introduced for the Nebraska Panhandle terminals and VCSH for the southeast Wyoming sites. Ample time to fine tune the forecast before Monday afternoon's activity. Relatively weak winds overnight with them ramping back up after about 18Z Monday ever so slightly. Expect gusty and erratic winds in and near any shower and/or thunderstorm activity that occurs Monday afternoon. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SF LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...RZ  263 FXUS61 KRNK 240525 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 125 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation Forecast Updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Drier cooler weather remains through the middle of the week, with next rain chances returning Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Drier cooler weather remains through the middle of the week, with next rain chances returning Thursday. Cool, slightly below-average temperatures will linger through Tuesday as high pressure and an upper-level trough hold firm over the eastern region. By Wednesday, that trough will finally shift northeast, allowing heights to rise while the quasi- stationary Bermuda high slides eastward. Warm, humid air from the western Atlantic will surge back in under the influence of the Bermuda high, instantly reviving mid-week summer mugginess. Late Wednesday into Thursday, an upper-level impulse will sweep southeast across the northern Great Lakes, dragging a surface cold front toward the area. This front will bring a return of rain and thunderstorm chances by Thursday afternoon and evening, though the exact timing of its arrival will ultimately determine any threat of severe weather or flash flooding. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Today will begin under VFR for almost all region terminals, though early risers near KLWB may encounter a brief morning veil of patchier fog and lowered ceilings that temporarily drops conditions to MVFR to IFR levels. As soon as the sun breaks over the horizon, the stubborn dry airmass will quickly sweep those lingering vapors away, leaving wide-open skies overhead. For the remainder of the day, pilots can anticipate unrestricted visibility and smooth flying conditions. Steady west-to- northwesterly winds will pick up by the afternoon, blowing between 5 to 10 knots with occasional gusts reaching up to 20 knots. As twilight settles and the atmosphere cools, those winds will drop off completely, leaving calm, quiet air across all fields overnight. OUTLOOK... Drier airmass will sink into the area today and remain into the middle of next week. Should be mainly VFR aside from any late night fog, mainly KLWB. Next system appears to bring some chances for storms Thursday with possibility for sub-VFR cigs/vsbys. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RCS AVIATION...RCS  322 FXUS63 KGID 240526 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1226 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another chance for scattered showers/storms returns to eastern portions of the forecast area tonight-Monday morning, mainly after midnight. Severe weather is not anticipated. - Additional thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast Monday night through Tuesday night...and there will be the potential for some storms to be strong-severe Tuesday evening and overnight. The entire forecast area remains in the SPC Day 3 Marginal/Slight Risk areas. Damaging wind gusts and large hail would be the primary hazards. - Off and on storm chances remain mid-week and through the weekend. - Temperatures experience a slight warming trend as the upper level pattern shifts starting Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Currently... An upper level shortwave disturbance sliding southeast across portions of the Central Plains has resulted in a damp end to the weekend for a good chunk of the forecast area today...with activity taking its sweet time pushing through eastern portions this afternoon. This disturbance is embedded in continued larger scale northwesterly flow...set up in a well amplified pattern across the CONUS. The main area of high pressure continues to sit over the Desert SW, with ridging extending northward through the Rockies...sandwiched between a large area of low pressure spinning over the Great Lakes with troughing dominating the East Coast, and another area of low pressure pushing east along the WA/Canada border. Outside of at times heavy rainfall rates, this activity hasn't amounted to a whole lot...as better instability has remained focused off to the west of the forecast area. Satellite imagery has shown the development of quite a range of cloud cover across the area...with mostly cloudy skies across the eastern half, more sun further west. This has resulted in mid-afternoon temps ranging from the mid 60s in the east to the low 80s in the far southwest...though those eastern areas still have the potential for late day highs if the cloud cover diminishes. At the surface, the forecast area sits between high pressure gradually working its way east and a deeper trough axis along the High Plains...bringing southeasterly winds this afternoon, at times gusting near 20 MPH. Tonight into Monday... For most locations, the forecast for this evening and tonight remains dry. Models continue to show the potential for at least scattered showers/storms developing late tonight (mainly around/after midnight) into the early morning hours on Monday...focused along the edge of a SSWrly low-level jet. Models remain consistent showing the best potential for this activity is across eastern portions of mainly our Nebraska counties...but vary some on just how far west coverage actually gets. Chances remain in the 20-40 percent range, with overall lift looking to be on the weaker side, currently not expecting notable coverage of activity. Not out of the question that a few storm could be on the strong side with MUCAPE potentially around 1500 j/kg, but the threat for severe weather continues to look low. Any activity that lingers into the daytime hours on Monday is expected to diminish by mid-morning...with the remainder of the day and at least part of the evening currently dry. Models showing little change in the overall upper level pattern, with the main high/ridging remaining over the Desert SW and Rockies. Forecast has lighter winds turning more easterly through the day, speeds topping out around 10-15 MPH. Expecting to have a bump up in afternoon highs, with generally mid 80s across central/eastern portions of our NE counties, with upper 80s-low 90s further south and west. Monday night into Tuesday... A little more uncertainty with preciptiation chances works its way back into the forecast late Monday evening into the overnight hours. Looking aloft, models showing that upper level low currently over WA/Canad having continued trekking ENE...ending up over south- central Canada by Monday evening. A southward extending sfc front (although on the weaker side) and shortwave energy looks to spark off afternoon thunderstorm development over portions of the Dakotas into the Sandhills...the main question then turning to how much of that activity works its way into our forecast area overnight. There are some notable differences between models...some showing little diminishment in activity as it moves in...others with notable waning with time. Made no changes to the NBM PoPs Monday night-Tuesday AM, which have a notable range from the 20 percent range in the ESE to 50-60 percent range further WNW. At this point, this activity is not expected to be severe. Some questions then linger through the daytime hours on Tuesday into evening/overnight...if activity does move in, how long into the day does it linger, and what impact could it have on the next expected round of thunderstorms to move through the region. Plenty of details to iron out in the next 48hrs...but additional shortwave energy is expected to fire off another round of thunderstorms off to our NW, but exactly where is a little uncertain at least partly due to where any sfc frontal boundaries may ultimately be/set up. There will be the potential for another MCS to sink SSE across the region...with models showing both better instability and shear developing to tap into. This will bring better potential for storms to be strong to severe...and the entire forecast area remains included in the SPC Day 3 Marginal/Slight risk areas, with the Slight risk area roughly from the Tri-Cities southwest-ward into western KS. Wednesday and on... Moving into Wednesday, the same overall pattern of ridging over the Rockies and troughing in the east holds in place with upper level northwest flow holding in place over the region. High temps stay consistent in the 80s on Wednesday and Thursday. Currently models are suggesting drier conditions on Wednesday with more storm potential beginning overnight into Thursday. However, as long as the northwest flow remains in place any shortwaves/disturbances through the pattern will bring potential for precip/storm development. Moving into Friday and the weekend, model guidance suggests a change in the upper level pattern as the ridging over the Rockies broadens into the plains creating a more zonal westerly flow, however a slight northwest component remains in place. A slight rise in the mid/upper level heights accompanies this pattern shift. With the rise in heights, a slight warming pattern occurs with high temps reaching into the mid 80s-low 90s on Friday before rising into the upper 80s-mid to upper 90s on Saturday/Sunday. While the northwest flow is not as strong, shortwaves and disturbances moving through this pattern continue to bring chances of convection, especially in the overnight hours. Models are not super consistent on which days have the best chance for storm development but the chance for storms will likely remain in place until the larger pattern breaks. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Dry, VFR conditions expected through the TAF. A high level stratus layer from decaying convection is starting to make its way eastward in the area. Skies will be mostly clear by this afternoon/evening, before another midlevel cloud layer moves in near the end of the TAF due to some approaching thunderstorms (that may impact the next TAF). While some spotty showers/thunderstorms are still possible (10-15%) this morning, confidence has decreased that they will affect the terminals (models have pushed them eastward), hence their removal from the TAF. SE surface winds between 5-7kt are expected to continue through the morning hours, becoming more southerly late this morning, and returning to SE by the afternoon. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADP/McGrew AVIATION...Scott  365 FXUS64 KEWX 240527 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1227 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, CLIMATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1218 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Extreme Heat Warning continues Monday for the northern Hill Country and Austin area. - Heat Advisory continues through Wednesday for the Coastal Plains, I-35 corridor, and portions of the Hill Country. - Mostly hot and dry weather throughout the week outside of low rain chances Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 There is little sign that the heat will recede substantially in the coming days. In fact, both LREF and HREF ensemble distributions indicate that 1000-500mb thicknesses will reach their maximum today, an indicator that the hot airmass could be at its most robust. While statistical and consensus aids assess slightly lower temperatures tomorrow compared to this past weekend, the recent overperformance of observed temperatures errs on the side of hotter conditions prevailing. The Extreme Heat Warning has been extended through 7 PM today to cover the afternoon heat between Llano and Bastrop counties, including Austin, where the blended model likelihood of highs exceeding 105F remains high, above 70 percent. These areas will likely continue seeing the highest temperatures in South Central Texas, but potentially hazardous heat will also be widespread elsewhere as highs continue to reach the triple digits regionwide. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the I-35 corridor, Coastal Plains, and portions of the Hill Country through Wednesday. Confidence is lower that the upper echelon of temperatures Tuesday will be as hot as this past weekend due to slightly higher low- level dew points given a more southeast mean flow, but the the difference in heat is minimal. High temperatures Tuesday throughout South Central Texas will remain above 100F for most areas without chances for rain. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 This particular stretch of the ongoing heatwave continues through at least Wednesday as the mid to upper level ridge stays centered over New Mexico. The ridge does shift slightly west after midweek and elongates to the north, which allows the jet stream to bow more south towards our area. While temperatures remain notably hot through Wednesday, a minor downward trend in forecast temperatures is noted during the second half of the week as the upper-level flow allows the opportunity for more cirriform clouds to move over the area and abate some of the heat. Weak disturbances in the flow will mostly serve to bring a few swaths of increased cloud cover aloft. The moisture supply aloft isn't great, but there is some opportunity for one of these perturbations to bring isolated rains. This would be most favored Thursday afternoon/evening with consensus emerging for a weak shortwave to quickly track from the Texas Panhandle to our area while mid-level temperatures become less restrictive to convective development. Still, the meager moisture and weak forcing keep chances generally low and near or below 30 percent for most areas. Over the weekend, the flow aloft becomes less favorable to approaching disturbances as the ridge becomes more zonally diffuse. The core of the hot airmass associated with the ridge is expected to become displaced a little farther to the northwest. This suggests temperatures by this upcoming weekend won't reach nearly as high as the early week, but highs between the upper 90s to low 100s will still be likely while the overall pattern holds dry. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR flight conditions continue. Skies will remain mostly clear with at times a few high level clouds passing across the region. There may also be a few patchy low clouds after sunrise along and to the east of the I-35 corridor this morning, including around the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF). However, the most recent short term guidance signals that the low clouds around or just after the sunrise timeframe may be more prevalent Tuesday morning compared to this morning. Winds remain of around 10 kts ore less but the sea breeze after sunset would likely to help to kick up breezes slightly across the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF) between 02Z and 05Z. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Record Daily Max Temperatures Mon 08/24 AUS 107 (2010) ATT 107 (2010) SAT 103 (2010/2013) DRT 103 (1911/1952/2006/2024) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 106 77 104 78 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 105 76 103 77 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 103 74 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 103 74 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 105 77 103 78 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 105 77 103 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 102 73 101 74 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 104 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 104 77 103 77 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 103 75 102 77 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 104 75 104 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ171>173- 192-193. Heat Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ171>173-192-193. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ191-194-205>209- 220>225. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...62  353 FXUS64 KSJT 240527 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1227 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for the Big Country this afternoon, with a Heat Advisory for the Concho Valley and Heartland areas. - Hot and mainly dry weather will persist through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 An upper level ridge remains centered over west Texas and southeastern New Mexico tonight. This will keep our weather hot and dry for the next 24 hours, and nearly identical to the past few days, with maybe a warming of a degree or two in a few locations. The other difference we might see is a slight uptick in wind speeds. Otherwise, temperatures will again range from the upper 90s to near 110 degrees. The hottest temperatures are expected in the Big Country, where we could see readings of 110+ degrees this afternoon. With those temperatures, an Extreme Heat Warning was issued, which will be in effect this afternoon through early evening. A Heat Advisory will also remain in effect for the Concho Valley and Heartland. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Expect hot and dry conditions across the area as a upper level ridge remains in control. Looks like will need Heat Advisories for much for Tuesday and maybe Wednesday across much of the area. Please follow heat safety precautions if you have to be outside during the afternoon hours. Highs will be mainly range in the upper 90s to near 108, mainly across the Big Country, expecting to have the hottest temperatures. Expect slightly cooler temperatures by the end of this week. There is a low chance for a few showers and thunderstorms by the middle of this week. The coverage may be a little better Thursday afternoon. Expect dry weather again by next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR through tomorrow night with light and variable or south- southeasterly winds of around 10 knots. There could also be an occasional gust over 15 knots at the KABI terminal during the afternoon hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 108 80 106 79 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 105 76 104 75 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 104 73 103 73 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 106 76 104 75 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 108 79 106 78 / 0 0 0 10 Ozona 99 72 99 72 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 104 74 103 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for Callahan-Fisher-Haskell-Jones-Nolan-Shackelford- Taylor-Throckmorton. Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Irion-Mason-McCulloch-Runnels-San Saba-Sterling-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...20  428 FXUS63 KIND 240529 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 129 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Milder and less humid through Tuesday - Scattered showers/storms possible Wednesday evening to Thursday && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 1000 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Near carbon copy of past couple nights on tap for central Indiana, despite slightly lower readings and dewpoints as center of southern Canada surface high pressure builds into the Midwest. Winds to become light and variable if not calm by pre-dawn hours...with mostly clear skies promoting patchy fog by dawn...and low temperatures in the 50s across the entire region, including 57F inside I-465. && .DISCUSSION (This Evening through Sunday)... Issued at 142 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A progressively drier trend than the last couple weeks continues through much of the upcoming week as high pressure resides over the Ohio Valley for much of the forecast period. Deep upper level ridging will remain tethered for the next several days over the Intermountain West with a largely dry northwest flow over the region. The passage of a cold front late Wednesday into Thursday will present the primary convective risk until the latter part of next weekend. Rest of This Afternoon through Tuesday Night Diurnal cu development has increased with heating as temperatures warm through the 70s. Satellite shows more enhanced cu over the Great Lakes extending south into northern Indiana with a few showers near KFWA in response to the double barreled upper low pinwheeling over Ontario. A piece of energy dropping south on the back side of upper low will pivot across lower Michigan and Lake Erie later this afternoon into the evening and may provide just enough lift in tandem with the steep lapse rates and weakly unstable airmass present to generate stray showers over northeast counties into the early evening. This would be similar to what took place Saturday evening but with lower instability levels limiting the coverage and intensity of any showers. Most will remain dry but any location that gets under a small shower may see a very quick downpour. High pressure will fully settle over the Ohio Valley tonight through much of the first half of the week with quiet weather and abundant sunshine anticipated. Low level thermals support cooler than normal temperatures through Tuesday with highs generally ranging from the mid 70s northeast to the lower 80s in the lower Wabash Valley. Lows will be very comfortable in the 50s the next two nights before return flow Tuesday night nudges lows back up into the low to mid 60s for most of the forecast area. Really cannot ask for a better next 60 hours or so for the region...much deserved after the very active and wet last few weeks. Wednesday through Sunday A weakening upper level low riding overtop of the western ridge will drop into the upper Midwest early Wednesday before becoming absorbed by a broader long wave trough that will amplify across the eastern half of the country for late week. Low pressure and an associated cold front running in tandem with the upper wave will track across the Ohio Valley Wednesday night and early Thursday in a progressively weakened condition as stronger forcing aloft is lost. There will be enough moisture and instability along and immediately ahead of the frontal boundary for scattered convection with the front clearing the forecast area during the day Thursday. High pressure will reestablish in the wake of the frontal passage drifting slowly east through the Great Lakes into Saturday. This bring another multi day stretch of dry weather with seasonable temperatures as highs will focus largely in the low to mid 80s. The ridge will flatten to the west over the weekend opening the possibility for convection to impact the region by late weekend into early next week as multiple waves ride along in the predominantly zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will also rise back into the mid and upper 80s by the end of the forecast period with an uptick in humidity levels. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 128 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Impacts: - MVFR or worse visibilities in fog possible at outlying terminals 07Z-13Z, especially at KLAF Discussion: Mainly VFR conditions to continue across central Indiana through the period as Canadian surface high pressure crosses the Midwest. Expect light and variable winds through daybreak with fog/BR possible at the outlying sites between 07Z-13Z today. Expect northwest winds sustained up to 3-8KT later today before winds become light and variable again tonight. Fog will be possible again at the outlying TAF sites late tonight into Tuesday morning. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...AGM AVIATION...Melo DISCUSSION...Ryan  585 FXUS61 KOKX 240531 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 131 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated for 03z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Chance of showers for both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Isolated thunderstorm possible for Monday. Severe weather impacts are not expected. 2) More chances of showers and thunderstorms for Thursday and Friday. Low confidence in potential impacts at this time. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Cold pool aloft with longwave troughing will be over the region for both Monday and Tuesday. Both afternoons could see instability showers for parts of the Lower Hudson Valley and Southern Connecticut, and with slightly more CAPE and perhaps slightly steeper lapse rates, there could be an isolated rumble of thunder for Monday. NBM kept all areas dry both days, but have gone with slight chc PoPs for both afternoons. Severe wx not expected, but a strong gust could be possible on Monday. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Global models show a weak wave of low pressure approaching from our SW on Thursday and passing nearby or through the forecast area during Friday. Too early to have high confidence in potential impacts, but will need to keep an eye on trends for severe wx and flooding. At least isolated thunder would be around based on the track of storm, and at least minor flooding would be possible with an increase of PWATs. Time frame for greatest chance of impacts would be Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front drifts further offshore overnight. A trough of low pressure lingers across the region Tuesday with high pressure gradually building from the west. VFR expected to prevail through the TAF period. There is a low chance of a few isolated showers / thunderstorms this afternoon. At this time confidence remains too low to include in the TAF. Winds will be light overnight mainly out of the W/SW. W/SW winds continue Monday afternoon and increase to or just above 10 kt with gusts around 20 to 25 kt. An isolated gust up to 30 kt can't be ruled out. Some coastal terminals may not gust, or gusts may not be as frequent. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... An isolated gust up to 30 kt can't be ruled out this afternoon. Isolated showers are possible Monday afternoon, but confidence remains too low to include in the TAF. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Monday night: VFR. Tuesday: VFR. WSW around 10 kt. Wednesday: VFR. Light WSW/SW winds. Thursday-Friday: VFR Thu AM, becoming sub VFR with SHRA/TSRA. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Conditions on the marine zones are still expected to remain below small craft advisory thresholds during the marine forecast period. Pressure gradient overall remains relatively weak. Rip Currents: A moderate risk is expected for Monday followed by a low risk of rip currents on Tuesday for the Atlantic facing beaches. SE swell on both days is anticipated. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...JE MARINE...JC  515 FXUS62 KMFL 240530 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 130 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 123 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Smoke from wildfires in the area could produce lower visibilities and unhealthy air quality over portions of the Everglades and western suburbs. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop in the afternoon and evening again today. An isolated marginally severe storm or two is possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 123 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 The deep trough draped across most of the eastern US and associated low pressure center over the Great Lakes will start to lift more northeast early this week. Additionally, another Saharan Air Layer (SAL) looks to advect into the area today. The thickness of this SAL is expected to be much less than the previous one, but it is still expected to create a drier local atmosphere that produces less widespread rain today. Light flow across the region will create a setup where most of the rain showers and thunderstorms that do form will be observed over interior areas of South Florida where the sea breezes collide. However, some activity can drift towards the coasts as additional convection develops along outflow boundaries. An isolated severe thunderstorm or two once again cannot be ruled out in the form of downburst winds because the SAL helps to steepen low level lapse rates. Strongest storms are are most likely to occur again with a storm formed by converging boundaries or cell mergers. Primary impacts to monitor for will be periods of heavy rain that could lead to localized flooding, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and strong wind gusts. The SAL will start to filter out on Tuesday, allowing for the deep moisture environment (PWATs ~1.7-2.0") to be utilized for widespread convection during the peak heating time of day in the afternoon and evening. High end PoPs rise to 50-70% over the interior on Tuesday which is up from 30-40% today. PoPs near the coasts will also be about 20% higher tomorrow when compared to today. Even with the increased rain chances Tuesday, QPF is still not too impressive at generally 0.5-1.0" across the region. Guidance also indicates potential for a mid-level low to form off the coast of Cuba and advect northwards late Tuesday into Tuesday night that could provide some extra upper level support for convection if the feature forms as modeled. However, uncertainty is high with this as it's not clearly defined across many of the ensemble members suite. High temperatures early this week will continue to be in the low to mid 90s. Maximum heat index values will primarily be in the 100-105F range, but some areas will experience brief periods where indices could reach into the 105-110F range. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 123 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 For the middle to end of this week and into next weekend, surface and low level high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will begin to expand back over the region and cause winds to shift back to an easterly or east-southeast direction. This easterly to east- southeast regime will produce a pattern that is common in the summertime across South Florida with convection being driven by the sea breeze circulations and being steered towards the Gulf coast areas. At the same time, the weak SAL will dissipate by mid-week and allow for the deeper moisture to be utilized for widespread shower and thunderstorm development. At the same time, we will be monitoring for some weak disturbances and vorticity maxima forming off the Caribbean islands as much of the guidance is showing potential for these weak lows to form, mainly in the mid-levels and advect close to the region. Nevertheless, abundant moisture (PWATs 1.8-2.0+") will be present for Wed-Fri and into the weekend for any vorticity and diurnal heating instability to take advantage of. Highest rain chances (60-80%) each day will be across interior and Southwest Florida as the easterly to east- southeast wind regime favors these areas receiving the most widespread rain. High temperatures are projected to remain in the low to mid 90s each day. Overnight lows range from the low 70s across the interior and lake regions to the upper 70s and low 80s along the coastal metros. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 123 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Winds remain light and variable across all terminals overnight before increasing out of the SE after 16z to around 10 kts across the east coast terminals. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the SW after 16z Monday as a Gulf breeze pushes inland. Scattered SHRA/TSRA expected to develop mostly inland and away from terminals, but VCTS in place after 16Z with monitoring for short- fused AMDs. && .MARINE... Issued at 123 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Light to gentle west-southwest winds are expected across the Gulf waters early this week with southeasterly winds across the Atlantic. Seas will remain at 1-2 feet or less each day across all of the local waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late each day and in the late night hours over the waters, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 79 93 80 / 20 20 30 30 West Kendall 92 76 93 77 / 20 20 40 30 Opa-Locka 93 79 93 80 / 20 10 30 30 Homestead 92 78 92 80 / 20 20 30 40 Fort Lauderdale 92 79 92 80 / 10 10 30 40 N Ft Lauderdale 93 80 93 81 / 20 10 30 30 Pembroke Pines 92 79 92 80 / 20 10 30 30 West Palm Beach 94 78 93 79 / 20 10 30 20 Boca Raton 91 79 91 79 / 10 10 30 30 Naples 92 77 93 78 / 20 20 20 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...Redman  449 FXUS63 KDVN 240529 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1229 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather and pleasant temperatures and humidity continue into Monday. - Mainly dry this week with 20 to 40 percent chances of showers and storms Wednesday and again next Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Nice late-August weather is expected through Monday with seasonable temperatures and comfortable humidity. Expect lows in the 50s tonight, and then a rebound into the upper 70s/low 80s for Monday. Winds will remain light with high pressure in control. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to continue through the upcoming week. A storm system is forecast to pass to our north and east Tuesday night through Wednesday night with 20 to 30 percent chances of showers and storms. Models show a slight increase in moisture ahead of this storm system. Currently the higher chances of precipitation are across northwest Illinois. Rainfall amounts will be light with generally less than a tenth of an inch expected. High temperatures on Wednesday will be slightly warmer into the lower to mid 80s. After Wednesday night, models show another shortwave topping the western U.S. ridge and flattening the flow aloft to more zonal. This system will begin to impact the area late Friday night into Saturday, bringing more humid conditions and another chance for precipitation. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 High pressure is forecast to sit near the Mississippi River in eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois through the Monday. This will result in light and variable winds across the area with speeds less than 5 knots. Diurnally driven cumulus is forecast to develop after 15 UTC Monday with ceilings around 5 kft. MVFR visibilities are possibly in patchy fog this morning after 08 UTC at KCID and KBRL with lower confidence that it will occur at KMLI so it was left out of that TAF sites for now. If fog does form, visibilities should quickly improve after 12 UTC. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...Cousins/Uttech AVIATION...Cousins  453 FXUS63 KLBF 240530 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1230 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few strong thunderstorms are possible this evening, mainly west of Highway 83. Large hail, damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible. - Strong to severe storms will remain possible Monday and Tuesday, mainly during the late afternoon and evening hours. The area of concern will remain mainly west of Highway 83. - Periodic disturbances will move through northwest flow aloft, leading to daily chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Late this afternoon and tonight...an upper ridge will remain centered over New Mexico, with a west-northwest flow aloft across the Northern and Central Plains. A disturbance currently located over eastern WY will track southeast across southwest SD and the Nebr. panhandle late this afternoon, with isolated thunderstorms developing. With SBCAPEs exceeding 3500 J/kg west of Highway 61 and effective bulk shear near 40kts, a few strong storms are possible late this afternoon and evening, mainly west of Highway 83. The severe threat would be large hail, damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain, with the 18Z KLBF sounding indicating 1.57 inches PWAT. Elevated showers and a few storms will persist this afternoon into tonight across the east, mainly east of Highway 183. This will be where weak WAA exist near 700mb as a weak 700mb trough progresses eastward and the low level jet increases after midnight. Monday and Monday night...A surface trough is forecast to extend south to north along the eastern panhandle to along the leeside of the Black Hills by mid afternoon. Strong afternoon heating across the west with highs reaching the low to mid 90s. Isolated storms are shown to develop along this surface trough and move east and southeast during the late afternoon and evening hours. A few storms could be strong to severe with large hail with any isolated discrete storms into early evening. With time, storms may merge with cold pools, with damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall becoming the primary severe threat into the evening hours. The area of greater concern will be for areas west of Valentine through Hayes Center, where SPC has a Slight Risk for severe storms. Instability will be adequate to around 2500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 40kts. Storms will gradually diminish and exit southeastern areas after midnight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Tuesday, the potential again for strong to severe storms. A warm front is shown to extend across the southern panhandle to near the NE/KS border. Moderate instability and 35KT of effective shear will be present to support scattered storms mainly south of HIghway 2. A Slight Risk for severe storms is forecast by SPC for areas generally south of I80. The active pattern continues Wednesday through Sunday, as an upper ridge center persists across AZ and NM. This will place the region in northwest flow aloft, favorable for evening and overnight convection. High temperatures will range mostly in the low to mid 80s Wednesday through Thursday, then heating into the low 90s western Sandhills and southwest Friday through Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north central Nebraska throughout the effective TAF period. A low level jet is developing across central Nebraska, which may bring additional showers and thunderstorms overnight across portions of north central Nebraska. While LLWS is not expected at either KLBFor KVTN, winds around 2,000 ft agl may remain around 30 knots through 4 AM CDT. Surface winds become light tomorrow, ahead of a slow moving cold front. By mid to late afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are again expected across the region, which bring the risk for localized ceiling and visibility concerns, as well as gusty and erratic winds. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Richie  489 FXUS63 KLMK 240530 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 130 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry and pleasant conditions are expected to continue through Tuesday. * Warmer temperatures (mid to upper 80s) and chances for showers and storms return by mid week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 232 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Calm winds and clear skies will allow for the potential of fog development tonight. Patchy fog and areas of valley fog are expected through the early morning hours, especially north and west of I64. Surface high pressure will remain over the Ohio Valley with an upper level trough to the NE and a ridge to the west. Northwesterly flow will keep high temperatures in the mid 80s, and lows in the upper 50s low 60s through Tuesday afternoon. Dewpoints will remain in the mid to upper 50s allowing for a very pleasant and comfortable start to the work week. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 232 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 As the surface high pressure moves off to the east, an upper level trough and low pressure system will move into the Great Lakes region. A shortwave disturbance and frontal boundary will bring rain chances back into the forecast for the later half of the week. By Wednesday afternoon/evening, southwesterly flow will return and bring moisture back into the region. PWAT values are expected to be back above 1" for the remainder of the week. A weak upper level disturbance will move through the region Wednesday into Thursday bringing scattered showers and storms. At this time, no severe threats are expected. Thursday evening, a cold front will begin to push into the Ohio Valley allowing for another round of rain and possible storms. Guidance is currently showing ample instability for storm development, however effective bulk shear is weak. Therefore, any storms that do form could have the potential to become strong but severe threats are not currently expected. Post frontal boundary, daytime temperatures are expected to remain around normal in the mid to upper 80s. A drier airmass will also likely move in for a pleasant day on Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 130 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions are expected to continue through this TAF cycle. Calm to light winds will continue through the early morning hours. FEW- SCT cloud around 5kft continue to stream over the region this morning. Some light fog will be possible over the region, though not expecting any issues at the TAF sites this morning. By mid morning, winds will pick up out of the northwest around 6kts. A thin Cu field around 5kft will be possible in the afternoon. In the evening, skies will clear and winds will become light. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CAL LONG TERM...CAL AVIATION...SRW  665 FXUS63 KMKX 240532 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1232 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Crisp, fall-like conditions tonight. Some fog is possible after midnight. - Comfortable & pleasant afternoon weather conditions today through Tuesday & Thursday-Friday. - Windows for showers & thunderstorms Tuesday night through Wednesday & next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Tonight through Monday Night: With high pressure overhead, skies are clear and winds are light. Temperatures in the low 50s to low 60s across southern Wisconsin will continue to fall throughout the night with overnight lows expected to fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Generally warmer temperatures will be along Lake Michigan. A nice crisp night and a taste of fall for those of us that are looking for it. As temperatures fall there is a potential for fog to develop tonight but there in some uncertainty in how much fog will develop. Available moisture will be the one competing factor for whether or not fog develops. If moisture is lacking then dew is more likely to form than fog. Still a bit to early to tell, but should be something that shows itself in the next couple of hours or so as the dew point depression drops to 1-2 degrees at multiple sites. Any fog that develops is expected to burn off/mix out shortly after sunrise. High pressure will slowly begin to shift east of the state, Monday. Fair weather cumulus clouds are likely to develop again this afternoon. Likewise under the light winds, a lake breeze is should develop and a few miles inland. Quiet conditions are expected through Monday night. As winds become southwesterly behind the departing high, WAA should slowly return ahead of the next incoming system for Tuesday. Patterson && .LONG TERM... Issued 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Tuesday through Sunday: Heading into Tuesday, high pressure will be moving east into the Mid Atlantic and New England states as a low pressure system travels across southern Canada into the northern Great Lakes Region. The upper level trough is expected to follow the exact same track as this system becomes stacked. The surface low is expected to occluded as it moves east before reaching the Great Lakes Region. For southern Wisconsin, the best chance for precipitation is expected to be with some WAA behind the warm front and with the passage of a cold front. There is some uncertainty on how much if any rain/storms we get with the push of WAA and any we do get will just eat away at any instability we would have gained in the afternoon/evening. The main concern here is the lack of any low level forcing. As temps and moisture increases diurnally there will be instability, but nothing to force convection. Which reflects why there are only a few model runs with any after convection so low chance but non zero. Especially if one shower goes, its outflow could trigger many more. Now with the passage of the cold front there is expected to be better upper level lit from the trough, but the timing of this looks to occur during the overnight hours into Wednesday late morning. This separates the best instability with the best lift and forcing. So while rain and storms are expected due to this confidence on any strong to severe storms are low. Its a low but non zero chance situation. Shear looks to be the one category that is persistent from the WAA to the passage of the cold front in support of stronger storms. It will just come down to timing and when our best forcing and instability resides. The low pressure system and front are expected to clear southern Wisconsin by Wednesday afternoon. High pressure is then expected to return to southern Wisconsin from Manitoba on Thursday and Friday. This area of high pressure will be exciting to the east Friday night as another low pressure system approaches from the Plains. This will bring rain chances back for the weekend. An upper level trough is expected to move through Canada with a few short wave troughs moving through the larger flow across the Great Lakes Region. These storms chances seem to largely be driven by the shortwave aloft and the LLJ. Which when aligned can lead to rain and storms, but there are some meso scale features that can throw that off or take a day of storm potential and turn it into mostly with little lightning. A lot of it will come down to where the best shear and instability reside which global models seem to be washing out and spreading out over a generous portion of the state. This is then reflected in the low chances around 10-30%. More details will shake out as we get closer to the weekend. Patterson && .AVIATION... Issued 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Largely VFR conditions through the period. With clear skies and light winds tonight, there is a small potential for lower ceilings and visibilities for any fog that develops after midnight. There is uncertainty in how widespread the patchy fog could become so kept mentions out of the TAFs for the time being. If fog develops visibilities could fall to 2-4 SM. Terminals in low lying areas or river valleys (LNR and JVL) will have the best potential for fog development. VFR conditions are expected to return shortly after sunrise. Fair weather cumulus clouds are expected to return late morning through the evening Monday. The few to scattered cloud deck is expected to be around 4-6 kft. Light and variable winds tonight will become light northwesterly winds Monday. A Lake breeze is expected to develop during the early evening hours which will turn winds to the northeast then east for lakeshore terminals. Light and variable winds are expected again Monday night. Patterson && .MARINE... Issued 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Low pressure across eastern Ontario will linger through Monday night which will result gusty winds across the northern third of the lake during this time. Gusts will approach gale force at times. As high pressure moves overhead Monday winds will become light and variable across Lake Michigan. South to southwest winds will set up across the lake as the high departs and ahead of the next incoming low pressure system. The low pressure system is expected to move through the northern Great Lakes Region and drag a cold front across the Lake Wednesday afternoon. Rain and thunderstorms will be possible across the entire lake from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon. A brief period of Small Craft Conditions will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening ahead of the approaching low pressure system. Patterson && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  776 FXUS66 KMFR 240534 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1034 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Temperatures peak about 5 to 10 degrees above normal on Monday before returning to seasonal levels near midweek. * There will be a slight chance (20 percent) of thunderstorms across southeastern Lake County and Modoc County Monday afternoon. * A passing shortwave will bring elevated fire weather conditions (gusty winds and low humidities) to areas west of the Cascades on Monday. A red flag warning is in effect for the southern Oregon Cascades and westward into Jackson County, the Siskiyou Mountains and western/central Siskiyou County. && .DISCUSSION...The upper trough that has been guiding conditions over the weekend has moved on to the northeast, leaving southwest flow aloft under the western side of a continental ridge. This pattern will bring some warming to most areas today, with easternmost Lake and Modoc County seeing similar temperatures as on Saturday. Monday will be the warmest day of the forecast period for most areas. Temperatures west of the Cascades may reach up to 10 degrees above normal, while to the east highs look to be about 5 degrees above normal. A passing shortwave will bring elevated winds into the Shasta Valley, the Klamath Basin, Christmas Valley, and parts of the Rogue Valley. For western Siskiyou County, Jackson County, and western Cascades foothills, these winds align with ongoing dry conditions to possibly reach critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Monday afternoon and evening to highlight these concerns. This shortwave is also support slight (15- 20%) thunderstorm chances over eastern Modoc and Lake counties, given its interactions with monsoonal moisture moving over those areas. While the chances for thunderstorms are not high enough to meet Red Flag criteria, any thunderstorms that do develop can still be locally hazardous by bringing lightning strikes or erratic and gusty winds. On Tuesday, an approaching trough around a low pressure system over the Pacific will shift flow to be more southerly. With dry air aloft precipitation is not expected. Temperatures west of the Cascades will drop a bit, but highs across the area look to stay about 5 degrees above normal. A weak front swinging around that trough may bring marine drizzle and some inland cloud cover On Tuesday morning, but significant impacts are not expected. For midweek and into the weekend, the upper trough starts to work against high pressure centered around the Four Corners area. The first low will weaken and move off to the northeast but another low follows to keep the trough in place possibly through Saturday. With this pattern, slow and steady cooling would bring generally seasonable warmth across the area by Friday or Saturday. Upper disturbances may bring elevated breezes on Friday, but details that far out are hard to forecast with high confidence. Overall, the forecast through the rest of August looks to be unimpactful. -TAD && .AVIATION (06Z TAFs)... Marine stratus with IFR/LIFR will redevelop along the coast overnight and persist through late Monday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for inland TAF sites. Gusty winds will develop for inland areas late Monday afternoon and evening. Additionally this is a slight chance (20%) for thunderstorms across Modoc and southeastern Lake county Monday afternoon and early Monday evening. Gusty outflow winds may accompany storms on Monday. && .MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Sunday, August 23, 2026...Gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas are building steep seas across area waters this afternoon. These winds will persist through Monday morning. The main belt of stronger winds will push into the outer waters Monday afternoon and evening, with a southerly surge of wind and fog along the inner waters Monday night into Tuesday. Generally light winds and calm seas are then expected through Friday with low pressure persisting over the northeastern Pacific. && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 PM PDT Sunday, August 22, 2026... With ongoing dry conditions, a passing shortwave will bring elevated winds to areas west of the Cascades. These winds will be southerly in the Shasta and could approach 30 to 35 mph. The Scott Valley could also see southerly winds approach 20 to 25 mph. In the eastern Rogue Valley, westerly winds could reach 20 to 25 mph. With RHs forecast to be in the 10-15% range, this combination represents critical fire weather conditions as any new fires could quickly spread. A Red Flag Warning for gusty winds and low RHs has been issued for California fire weather ones 280 and 281 as well as Oregon fire weather zones 621, 622, and 623. This Warning will be in place from 11 AM through 8 PM on Monday. Also on Monday, There are some signals for thunderstorm chances across far eastern 285/625, namely the Warner and Hart mountains. Much will depend on how far west the Four Corners High retrogrades behind this trough passage. Otherwise, another trough drops southward from the Gulf of Alaska and lingers off the BC coast through early next week. There will likely be additional shortwaves/troughs to swing through the region early next week, bringing periods of enhanced winds. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Monday for ORZ621>623. CA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Monday for CAZ280-281. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ370-376. && $$  824 FXUS63 KTOP 240535 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1235 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light showers end by late this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms become more prevalent late tonight though severe weather is not likely. - Warmer for much of the week with periodic chances for more showers and thunderstorms. - Even warmer conditions possible next weekend with heat indices possibly reaching 100 degrees again. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 209 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Surface high pressure centered over western Missouri has allowed for a drier lower troposphere today. Showers and a few thunderstorms moving east out of central portions of Nebraska and Kansas have struggled to maintain themselves and this should be the rule through late afternoon, with very little if any rain accumulation. An advancing shortwave over south-central Canada tonight produces modest low-level warm air advection in eastern Kansas late tonight to support more precipitation. MUCAPE will be greater than today, though still likely less than 1000 J/kg with high storm bases and modest flow to limit effective shear despite northwest flow aloft bringing some veering with height. Gusty winds, most likely sub-severe, should be the main convective concern. Some isolated heavier rainfall can't be ruled out in this regime either with high freezing levels and precipitable water values around 1.8 inches. The most likely location for storms looks to be in east-central Kansas after midnight to around dawn though CAMs are showing some variability. Monday should see clearing conditions and somewhat warmer temperatures. The northwest flow regime stays in place through the bulk of this forecast period, bringing occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms as weak waves traverse the flow. The next best chance looks to be late Tuesday into Tuesday night then again around Friday but confidence is fairly low in when and where any precip will be. Can't rule out any severe weather or locally heavy rain but again nothing stands out for any particular threat at any one time. The pattern flattens a bit this weekend and may serve to bring stronger south to southwest low-level flow for warmer and more uncomfortable conditions. EPS guidance continues to show the stronger positive 850 mb temperature anomalies during this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 The main challenge this period is whether storms will impact terminals and when. Model inconsistencies are keeping confidence fairly low, but chances remain around 30 percent Monday morning. Have continued the PROB30 and TEMPO groups for the most likely timeframe of TS. Otherwise, skies will clear and winds will increase to near 10 kts from the southeast. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Poage AVIATION...Teefey  864 FXUS64 KBRO 240536 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1236 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1233 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Very hot, record to near record-breaking temperatures and rain- free conditions are expected to persist through this week. - Widespread Major (Level 3 of 4) with increasing areas of Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk is expected through this week. - Worsening drought conditions are expected to continue due to the combination of very hot temperatures, antecedent dry conditions, and very high evaporation rates. - The combination of dry fuels, lowering relative humidity values, and hot temperatures could lead to elevated fire danger risks through this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1017 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 An anomalously strong, sprawling 594-598 dam heat dome, that's resulting in a dangerous heat wave across the Southwest U.S. and Southern Plains, will continue to yield hotter than normal, record to near record-breaking temperatures over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through next weekend and for that matter through the month of August (see CLIMATE SECTION). To put into context how persistent the heat has been, Brownsville and Harlingen today recorded its 6th and 7th consecutive 100F degree day, respectively amid this strong and vast heat dome. Widespread triple digit heating including over Harlingen and Brownsville will continue through the forecast period as the aforementioned heat dome remains parked over the 4-Corners Region. Given the fact that climatologically we are in the hottest part of the year (i.e. average high temperature for McAllen is 100F degrees) and yet forecasted temperatures are projected to be 4-8F degrees hotter than the climatological peak temperatures will result in dangerously hot conditions even for the RGV's standards in the days ahead. That said, widespread Major (Level 3 of 4) with increasing areas of Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk is expected through next weekend. The combination of very hot temperatures and dry conditions will continue to result in very strong evaporation rates. This will lead to a continuation of worsening or expanding drought conditions across Deep South Texas and Rio Grande Valley during this stretch. Furthermore, wildfire concerns will also remain on the table through next weekend as relative humidity (RH) levels drop during the afternoon hours to near Fire Danger Statement (RFD) criteria on already dry fuels. Winds and RH value trends will need to be closely monitored through next weekend for the potential issuance of a Fire Danger Statement. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the TAF period. Light and variable winds overnight are forecast to increase out of the southeast late Monday morning, with gusts increasing through the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1017 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Favorable marine conditions are expected throughout the week with low seas (1 to 2 foot wave heights) and light to moderate southeasterly winds. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1017 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A massive and strong 594-598 dam heat dome situated over the Southwest U.S. and the Southern Plains will result in record to near record-breaking temperatures during the workweek. Daytime high temperature anomalies are expected to run 4-8F degrees above normal levels during this timeframe. Below is a list of record highs from August 24-28: Monday August 24th, 2026 Brownsville: 100F in 1970 Harlingen: 102F in 2010, 1936, & 1952 McAllen: 105F in 2018 Tuesday August 25th, 2026 Brownsville: 100F in 2019 Harlingen: 103F in 1924 McAllen: 105F in 2019 Wednesday August 26th, 2026 Brownsville: 101F in 2019 Harlingen: 103F in 1924 and 1948 McAllen: 104F in 2019 and 2018 Thursday August 27th, 2026 Brownsville: 102F in 2023 Harlingen: 104F in 1948 McAllen: 105F in 2018 Friday August 28th, 2026 Brownsville: 106F in 2023 Harlingen: 106F in 2011 McAllen: 107F in 2023 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 98 80 98 81 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 102 76 102 77 / 0 0 10 0 MCALLEN 104 80 104 80 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 104 78 105 78 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 81 90 81 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 97 78 97 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...60-BE  901 FXUS64 KTSA 240537 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1237 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1236 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Temperatures mostly above normal with continued periods of locally high heat stress to continue through the week. The possible exception being around active thunderstorm activity. - Limited risk of severe weather Sunday night into early Monday with damaging wind potential the primary hazard. - Areas of localized fire weather concerns will persist until widespread beneficial rainfall occurs. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The immediate near term concern is the likelihood of at least scattered shower and thunderstorm development after midnight, beginning initially across parts of northeast Oklahoma and eventually working south and eastward toward daybreak, all in response to an increasing low level jet. There have already been signs of the initial development late this evening on KINX, along with other echoes across northwest Arkansas that have bubbled much of the evening. The expectation is for the potential for severe weather, focused on a locally damaging wind threat, to be highest in far northeast Oklahoma into northwest and west central Arkansas. Locally heavy rain should be expected as well. The overall trend into the daylight hours should be for an eastward shift through mid to late morning, a notable lull early afternoon, with a low chance of additional development in southeast Oklahoma mid to late afternoon in association with another mid level speed max. In addition to the shower and thunderstorm potential through the day, a portion of the area will continue to battle heat stress concerns. A Heat Advisory will be issued for a part of east central and southeast Oklahoma roughly along and south of I-40 and along and west of the Indian Nations Turnpike. This area is less likely to have significant rainfall and convective debris during the day and therefore, continued triple digit temperatures. It is possible that if lesser thunderstorm development materializes tonight and into the morning that this advisory will need to be expanded northeastward on later shifts. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday evening, with a gradual decrease in the potential for further development for much of the night, continuing into the day Tuesday. Overall, warmer conditions areawide are expected Tuesday, with additional heat headlines likely. The brief largely dry period for much of Monday night and into Tuesday looks to end Tuesday night as a fairly potent mid level disturbance moves into the area, leading to the development of a thunderstorm complex that moves southward into parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Cooler low level temperatures look to move southward into the area on the heels of this disturbance for Wednesday, with roughly the northern half of the area seeing temperatures closer to normal. The more normal temperatures should hang around into Thursday as well. A change in the overall upper level pattern is expected by the weekend, with the high pressure center shifting eastward. This should bring a longer stretch of dry weather and a return to hot temperatures areawide, particularly by Sunday and next Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity overnight into Monday morning, with the northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas sites most likely to be impacted by storms. VFR conditions will prevail outside of thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 95 75 98 74 / 20 0 0 20 FSM 93 75 102 75 / 40 10 10 10 MLC 102 76 105 74 / 20 20 0 10 BVO 94 69 97 68 / 20 0 0 20 FYV 88 70 98 71 / 60 10 0 30 BYV 88 71 94 71 / 70 10 0 30 MKO 95 73 101 73 / 30 10 0 10 MIO 93 71 96 71 / 50 0 0 40 F10 100 74 102 73 / 20 10 0 10 HHW 103 77 103 76 / 20 20 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-065-066-071-073. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...05  904 FXUS65 KFGZ 240537 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1037 PM MST Sun Aug 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Moderate monsoon activity will continue through Monday, mainly along the higher terrain during the afternoon and evening hours. Then, as high pressure builds over Arizona, hot weather and a decline in storm activity is expected to develop as the flow of moisture northward into the region diminishes. && .DISCUSSION...Upper-air analysis shows the 500mb subtropical high pressure cell centered across central New Mexico, with a northeastward-moving shortwave trough draped across the Yavapai and Coconino County border. This system is actively supporting showers and thunderstorms across western Yavapai and Coconino Counties, while aiding convective initiation along portions of the Mogollon Rim. Moderate monsoon conditions persist today with storms drifting northeastward on average. The forecast favors high-terrain locations, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms between 30-60% in the mountains. However, mid-level warming is limiting deep atmospheric instability, keeping the threat for severe weather low. Given the presence of slow-moving storms, there is a low to medium risk for flash flooding. This threat is tempered by atmospheric moisture (precipitable water) values ranging from 0.75-0.85 inches north of the Mogollon Rim and 0.85-1.15 inches south of the Rim. Outflow wind gusts between 35-45 mph are possible in the vicinity of storms. Storm activity is forecast to decline after sunset. High- resolution model guidance indicates overnight showers and thunderstorms may move into the region from the south, impacting areas west of a Payson to Flagstaff to Page line. Similar convective coverage is forecast on Monday, though a surge of moisture northward from the Gulf of California will likely shift the main axis of high storm coverage into Coconino and Yavapai Counties, with more isolated activity expected elsewhere. By mid-to-late week, guidance generally agrees that the subtropical high pressure circulation will strengthen over Arizona. This will introduce more stable atmospheric conditions and a noticeable downturn in storm coverage, leaving only low- grade monsoon activity through the remainder of the week. Temperatures are forecast to warm during this period, with daytime temperatures approaching 10 degrees above normal across much of the area. Excessive Heat products may become necessary for lower elevation areas, including portions of Yavapai County and Grand Canyon country. && .AVIATION...Monday 24/06Z through Tuesday 25/06Z...Mainly VFR conditions. An outflow boundary moving north from central AZ could trigger a round of SHRA/TSRA late tonight into early Monday morning (through around 09Z) along/south of KPRC-KSEZ-KINW. Otherwise, another round of isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA is then forecast to develop Monday afternoon, with highest coverage west of a KPAN-KPGA line. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty/erratic wind to 40 kts possible in heavier SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise, look for south to southwest daytime winds at 5-15 kts, with variable or terrain wind-driven winds overnight. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 25/06Z through Thursday 27/06Z...Expect mainly VFR conditions. Coverage of afternoon SHRA/TSRA decreasing to isolated Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly over higher terrain. Outside of gusty/erratic outflow driven winds, look for daytime winds mainly southwest to west 5-15 kts. Light and variable winds at night. && .FIRE WEATHER...Rest of today through Tuesday...Expect daily chances for showers/thunderstorms, with the greatest coverage across the higher terrain. Activity will ramp up around midday then continue through the evening hours. Drier conditions are possible starting Tuesday, with low-grade monsoonal conditions developing. Outside of gusty and erratic storm driven winds, look for southwest to west winds generally 10 mph or less during the day and variable at night. Wednesday through Friday...Drier, low-grade monsoonal conditions will likely continue, with activity becoming more limited to the White Mountains. Daytime highs are forecast to become quite hot, reaching up to 10-15 degrees above normal. Look for southwest winds 5-15 mph each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...RR AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  928 FXUS61 KBOX 240538 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 138 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Aviation section. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Outside a few showers/isolated t-storm risk into mid evening with the focus across the interior especially near and west of the CT River Valley. Areas of fog develop overnight which may become locally dense in spots. - Drier with a return to seasonable temperatures this week. Rain chances return Thursday/Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Outside a few showers/isolated t-storm risk into mid evening with the focus across the interior especially near and west of the CT River Valley. Areas of fog develop overnight which may become locally dense in spots. The main cluster of showers that resulted in brief heavy rain along with a rumble or two of thunder has exited the eastern Ma coast earlier this afternoon. Behind this activity some subsidence and drier mid level air was allowing the lower clouds to begin to mix out from southwest to northeast. We will see a late rise in temps through early evening well into the 70s to perhaps near 80 in the CT River Valley as some peeks of sun try to develop. This will result in some modest instability developing with ML Capes approaching 1000 J/KG across parts of the interior. However...subsidence behind the earlier shortwave coupled with the main forcing well to our west will limit the additional risk. Nonetheless...a few showers and perhaps an isolated t-storm or two will be possible into mid- evening. The main focus for this activity will be across the interior and especially near and west of the CT River Valley closer to the upper level shortwave. Otherwise...the main story later tonight will be for the development of fog some of which may become locally dense. Winds become light/calm overnight coupled with partial clearing, wet ground and dewpoints remaining in the 60s will set the stage for fog development. Some of the fog may become locally dense too. Low temperatures overnight will drop into the middle to upper 50s in the outlying locations...to the middle 60s in the urban heat islands of downtown Boston/Providence. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier with a return to seasonable temperatures this week. Rain chances return Thursday/Friday. A post-frontal air mass ushers in drier conditions and warmer temperatures on westerly winds this week. As skies gradually clear from the dreary weekend, dewpoints will begin to drop slightly... into the upper 50s as opposed to the low to mid 60s we've been seeing. High pressure begins to slowly build Tuesday into Wednesday, prolonging the clear skies, drier weather, and warmer temperatures through the middle of the week. Expecting temperatures to return to seasonable, in the upper 70s to low 80s, and feel less humid thanks to the lower dewpoints through the end of the week. Chances for rain showers return Thursday and Friday as a low pressure system develops over the Great Lakes and meanders east through southern Ontario. Some uncertainty remains regarding the onset of the showers as there's little consistency in the global ensembles on the actual placement of the low as it tracks through Canada; however, confidence has ticked up slightly in a later show of showers Thursday evening into the overnight period compared to yesterday's model runs. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update... Through 12z...Moderate confidence in trends but lower confidence in specific timing. VFR/MVFR conditions, however light winds with higher dewpoints and remaining wet ground will remain conducive to the development of areas of fog. Some have already developed across NE MA, parts of RI and SE MA, and up in the Worcester hills. Areas all prone to fog will likely see it before daybreak if they aren't already, and it may become locally dense. Monday and Monday night...High confidence. Any leftover ground fog quickly burns off after sunrise this morning. VFR with SW winds of 7-13 kt with a few gusts up to 20 kts possible in the afternoon/evening hours across the region, though ACK may remain under an inversion that prevents the development of gusts based on the latest forecast soundings. VFR conditions continue tonight outside of any localized patches of ground fog that develop in typically prone locations. Winds become calm/light SW overnight. Tuesday...High confidence. Generally VFR, though lower end VFR to higher end MVFR possible over the interior. W winds 6-13 kt with gusts near the Cape and Islands nearing 20 kt possible. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Low clouds remain possible through 12z this morning. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in trends but lower confidence in specific timing. Fog has not developed yet within the valley, though could expect it to do so over the next few hours and reach BDL before sunrise. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight through Monday night...High confidence. The pressure gradient will generally remain weak enough to keep winds/seas below small craft advisory through Monday night. However...nearshore SW winds may gust into the lower 20 knots late Monday result in some decent chop for recreational boaters. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT this morning through this afternoon for MAZ024. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Frank/McMinn AVIATION...Hrencecin MARINE...Frank/McMinn  944 FXUS63 KDLH 240538 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1238 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The next chance for showers and storms will be late Monday night through Tuesday. - Severe storms are possible, particularly Tuesday afternoon and evening with the passage of a cold front. - Seasonal, dry conditions return for the later part of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Current Conditions/Tonight: Gorgeous conditions across the Northland this afternoon with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 70s. Surface high pressure starts to shift to the east tonight with another dose of cool temperatures expected. Low temperatures tonight will dip back into the 40s with our colder spots likely falling into the upper 30s again. Monday: Surface high pressure will have been shunted off to the east with southerly warm air advection moving back into the Northland. High temperatures will increase a couple degrees from the previous day with some isolated spots seeing low 80s. Precipitation chances increase late Monday and into Tuesday as a Low pressure system moves across Canada. Some of the CAMs are quite bullish with the onset of precipitation initially in the early evening hours as a weak shortwave rounds the upper level ridge in place ahead of the approaching system. For now, we have limited PoPs to 15% as soundings still look fairly dry during this time period and the strength of the available forcing does not look overly strong with height rises still in play aloft. Better forcing for ascent arrives later into the night as the system moves across the Northern Plains with a cold front sliding into the Red River Valley. The warm sector ahead of the cold front in our CWA will be able to generate some instability with MUCAPE projected to be around 1000 J/kg. Bulk shear is pretty minimal through Tuesday morning and mid level lapse rates are not overly favorable so current thinking is that any storms that do fire off will remain sub severe producing small hail. The strongest storms look to remain to the west at this time where SPC has a marginal risk outlined. However, this could shift east into our region. Right now the HRRR is the most aggressive of the CAMs with a linear complex marching across northern MN in the morning hours. Still have a healthy amount of skepticism in this scenario with mean wind flow not overly strong and no sustainable boundary present in the models during that timeframe. Tuesday: Lingering showers and storms in the morning are possible, especially across northern MN. Another round of showers and storms are expected to develop in the afternoon as the low pressure and associated frontal boundaries cross the Northland. Instability recovery from the morning activity will have to be monitored but the current expectation is for the region to see MUCAPE bounce back to over 1000 J/kg as surface temperates heat up into the upper 70s and 80s. Bulk shear will also see a slight uptick as mid level flow increases with a small jet streak rounding the base of the trough. With these ingredients in play we could see some isolated severe storms capable of producing 1" hail and damaging winds. SPC has a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) outlined for most of our region except near the Brainerd Lakes area. Best timing for severe storms to initiate still looks to be in the afternoon and evening hours. Wednesday-Friday: Low pressure will be sliding into the Great Lakes on Wednesday with some lingering showers and storms possible through the day. Any storms that do manage to form would likely not be severe as the mid level flow will be weaker and not capable of sustaining strong updrafts. Northerly flow will stream back into the region with highs back in the 70s through the end of the work week. The upper level pattern maintains northwest flow with the 12Z suite of deterministic guidance keeping activity out of the region as surface high pressure expands across Manitoba and through the Upper Midwest. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions as of issuance time are expected to give way to areas of fog, some of it at dense. Some indications for fog are higher this evening, with higher dewpoints, but we are not expected to get as cold tonight as we did yesterday. Have included MVFR/IFR visibilities for the same terminals which got fog last night, mostly with TEMPO groups due to the variability which is expected with the fog. As usual, the fog will burn off shortly after sunrise. Light winds overnight into Monday morning will gradually become southeasterly, but remain less than 10kts. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 No expected marine hazards in the near term forecast. High pressure over the region will be sliding to the east on tomorrow. Easterly winds of 5 to 10 knots currently over the Lake will switch to out of the south tonight. By Monday afternoon these winds will switch to out of the northeast. Rain and storm chances will return early Tuesday morning and linger through Wednesday. Some storms may be strong to severe Tuesday afternoon and evening. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Surface high pressure over the region today providing mostly sunny skies and dry conditions with Min RHs falling into the 30s across the region. About the same for tomorrow as the high pressure exits to the east. Low fire weather concerns with light winds today. Tomorrow winds will switch to out of the south but still remain weak enough that fire weather concerns remain low. Rain and storm chances return Monday night and linger through Wednesday. Largely scattered activity through the period with some severe storms possible, most likely Tuesday afternoon and evening as a cold front moves across the region. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Britt AVIATION...LE MARINE...Britt FIRE WEATHER...Britt  946 FXUS63 KSGF 240538 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1238 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri tonight into Monday morning. Damaging wind to 60 mph is the primary severe weather hazard, with quarter size hail being a secondary hazard. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding are also possible. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A drier air mass is in place across the area behind the front that moved through the area yesterday. Dewpoints currently range from the middle 50s across central MO to around 60 across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri this afternoon. Highs today will range from around 80 across central Missouri to the lower 90s across far southwestern Missouri. An upper level disturbance is currently moving south towards the area this afternoon. Mid to high level clouds will continue to increase from north to south into this evening as the disturbance moves south. Some light rain showers will be possible at times late this afternoon and this evening as the disturbance moves south through the region. Rainfall amounts will generally be a trace to a few hundredths of an inch with the showers this evening as a drier air mass will remain in place across the area. Tonight into Monday morning moisture will start to advect back into the region from the southwest. Precipitable water values will increase to around 2" from the southwest tonight into Monday morning across portions of extreme southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri, as the moisture starts to advect into the region. MUCAPE values of around 500 to 1000 J/kg will also develop within the area of advection tonight into Monday morning, generally along and west of Highway 65, with weaker instability to the east. A low level jet will increase across the southwestern portions of the area which will result in isentropic lift increasing. As this occurs, a band of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region from the northwest to the southeast on the noise of the low level jet. Storm motions and 0-3km bulk shear vectors will be to the southeast which will be parallel to the lift. Therefore, some locally heavy rainfall will occur with the increase in moisture and some potential for training. Some of the short term models keep the lift more stationary across the western portions of the area which would result in more prolong training potential, while others slowly push the lift/advection to the northeast through the area. Localized areas of 2 to locally 4" of rainfall will be possible in bands and if more training of storms can occur, localized amount up to 6" could be possible. Outside the bands, rainfall amounts will likely drop off sharply. With the potential for higher rainfall rates and training, there will be a localized flooding risk within the heavier bands of rain tonight into Monday morning, generally between 4 to 10am. Some lingering showers could occur into mid day, but the heaviest should be overnight into the mid morning hours. Deep layer shear will increase across the area tonight into Monday morning, MUCAPE will be more modest but a few strong storms will be possible with scattered damaging winds gusts up to 60 mph as the main severe risk, and hail to the size of quarters a secondary risk. There is a Marginal (1 out of 5) Severe Thunderstorm Risk across the western portions of the area tonight mainly west of Highway 65. Instability will be weaker to the east, but some non severe thunderstorms will be possible east of Highway 65 with coverage decreasing further to the east. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The upper level ridge will remain west of area this week. Highs will generally range from the mid/upper 80s across central Missouri to the low/middle 90s across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri each day this week into next weekend. The region will remain in northwest flow this this week. The ensemble model members show a couple upper level disturbances moving through the northwest flow bringing some chances (20-30%) chances for storms at times mid week and again late week into next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Showers and thunderstorms may expand in coverage and intensity later tonight into Monday morning. However, the latest models runs are changing rapidly, generally showing a decreasing trend. Further evaluation may lead to significant TAF updates prior to the 12Z issuance. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...Wise AVIATION...Titus  987 FXUS63 KJKL 240540 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 140 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Noticeably less humid air will continue to prevail early this week, with below normal morning lows. - Temperatures and humidity will increase Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the next cold front, leading to a potential for thunderstorms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 130 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026 No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFS and zones. UPDATE Issued at 1055 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Only minor tweaks were made again for sky cover overnight and near term temperatures based on obs. UPDATE Issued at 754 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Have made minor adjustments in the sky forecast for a patch of cirrus streaming through this evening, and for temps for an initial quick drop in eastern valley readings early this evening. The update has little impact on the night as a whole. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 419 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Largely stacked low pressure just north of the Great Lakes late today will weaken and lift northeast through Monday night. Meanwhile, surface high pressure currently over the mid Mississippi Valley will drift to the Ohio Valley. As this happens, our current inflow of cooler and drier low level air around the high will ease and our upper level flow upstream will flatten. Even though cool/dry advection will taper off, air mass modification will hold off during the short term, which will afford us below normal lows both nights. The flattening upper level flow may allow some high clouds to spill through upstream ridging Monday night, but any clouds in our skies shouldn't have much impact on our temperatures. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 323 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 The long term period begins Tuesday with a subtropical ridge and closed 500 mb high ranging from 594-597 dm centered over the Four Corners region. Elsewhere, an upper-level trough is modeled across the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and New England. Across eastern Kentucky, Tuesday will be fair and quiet with dew points in the 50s, and temperatures in the mid 80s feeling a bit less humid compared to previous days. Overnight, light winds and clear skies may aid in patchy valley fog developing in typical favored river valley locations. With valleys possibly decoupling at night, temperatures in the valleys may cool into the mid to upper 50s, while ridgetops cool into the upper 50s to low 60s, Tuesday night. An upper low modeled over southern Manitoba will progress southeast overnight, ending up in the Upper Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. A surface low will also form in the Great Lakes vicinity. Some high and mid-level clouds may work into the area through Wednesday in advance of the approaching system. By Wednesday evening, as a surface cold front extends from the Great Lakes southwestward through the Ohio Valley and Ozarks, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Wednesday night into Thursday, peaking Thursday ahead of the frontal passage. By Friday, the cold front is expected to have passed east of the Commonwealth, with the trough axis shifting east of the forecast area Friday into Saturday, leaving broad troughing across the eastern US. Lingering moisture along the departing trough may support isolated shower and storm chances Friday afternoon along the VA/KY border. Model and ensemble agreement is poor by next weekend. However, deterministic guidance diverges, with one scenario depicting a shortwave progressing through the Central Plains into portions of the Mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys by Saturday evening into Sunday, which would lead to another round of showers and storms across the area on Sunday. Conversely, an alternate scenario tracks the shortwave farther north into the Ohio Valley. NBM has maintained low-end isolated PoPs for Sunday (15-20%) to reflect this low-confidence scenario. Temperatures should remain slightly above normal for this time of year, in the mid to upper 80s. The CPC 6-10 day outlook supports this thinking. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026 Valley fog will spread early this morning bringing localized IFR or worse conditions, probably affecting the KLOZ and KSME TAF sites for a brief time around dawn. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period along with light and variable winds. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...HAL/GREIF  050 FXUS64 KMOB 240541 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1241 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1239 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected each afternoon this week, particularly across the southern half of the area. Storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. - Hot conditions continue, with heat indices topping out at around 102-107 degrees each day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A much more active weather pattern is expected this week as our local area remains underneath a northwesterly flow pattern aloft. This flow is the result of a building ridge over the Rockies and longwave troughing over the Great Lakes region. Over the coming days, several embedded shortwaves are expected to push through this flow and pass overhead, helping to provide large scale ascent to the local region. Pairing this with PWATs of around 2 inches and a highly unstable environment due to strong diurnal heating, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop each day this week, mainly during the afternoon and into the evening hours. Latest CAMs suggest that this coming afternoon/evening may be one of the more active days this week as a rather stout shortwave pushes into the local area. Although storms over our area may initially develop along the sea breeze boundary by the coast and spread via outflow boundaries, guidance is also suggesting that upstream storms, sparked by the shortwave aloft, may organize into an MCS and push southeastward throughout the day. Although a bit uncertain as to how much of the local area will be impacted by this MCS, confidence is higher for locations west of the Tombigbee River at this time. Although any storm that develops today will be capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall, the greatest threat for strong to severe weather will come with this MCS. Right now guidance has this MCS entering our Mississippi counties by as early as 2PM and pushing off the Alabama coast by or before 8PM. Damaging winds will be the greatest hazard from this complex. Heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flooding is also a concern. Latest HREF 24hr LPMMs suggest 3-5 inches of rain over portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama, along with localized maximums of around 5-7 inches. If storms can train over the same areas for a long period of time, then these values may become realized. Rain chances quickly diminish this evening in the wake of the MCS. As stated before, daily chances for scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected throughout the remainder of the week. Highest coverage looks to be over our coastal counties thanks to development along the sea breeze boundary. Each day comes with the risk of gusty to locally damaging downburst winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flooding concerns. Some guidance suggests that another MCS may travel within the northwesterly flow and impact portions of the local area midweek. If this were to happen, then similar to today, damaging winds would be the primary impact. We will monitor trends closely over the coming days. With the increase in rain chances, high temperatures are expected to trend back to seasonal norms. Highs in the low to mid 90s today should decrease to the upper 80s to low 90s by midweek. Heat indices throughout the period should generally remain just below Heat Advisory criteria (around 102-107), although a few localized spots of 108-110 degrees cannot be ruled out along the coast. Lows will range from the low 70s inland to the upper 70s along the coast. A Low Risk of rip currents remains in place through the week. /96 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through The morning hours. Scattered to numerous showers and storms should start to develop across the area by the late morning/early afternoon hours. Expect brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A light to occasionally moderate westerly flow pattern continues through this week. Winds are expected to shift from southwesterly each afternoon to northwesterly late each night. Isolated to potentially scattered showers and storms can be expected each morning during next week with locally higher seas and winds near storms. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 95 74 91 73 / 60 40 70 10 Pensacola 93 77 90 76 / 50 40 70 20 Destin 91 78 89 78 / 40 50 60 40 Evergreen 97 71 94 70 / 40 50 50 10 Waynesboro 97 73 93 72 / 50 40 60 10 Camden 95 72 92 71 / 30 40 30 10 Crestview 95 72 92 71 / 50 50 60 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  304 FXUS65 KBOU 240547 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1147 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms through Thursday. A risk of a couple severe storms each day especially Tuesday and Wednesday. - Slightly cooler with near normal temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday. - Gradual drying and hotter temperatures by the end of the week and through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/... Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The flow aloft will be mainly WNW this aftn thru tonight with PW values 100 to 150 percent above normal. Don't really see anything aloft to enhance tstm development, so will see another round of sct showers and storms across the CWA. Overall, expect mostly outflow dominant storms with gusty winds and possibly some marginal large hail over the plains. DCAPE values are mainly at or below 1000 j/kg but a few storms may still produce brief wind gusts from 55 to 65 mph. On Mon, the flow aloft will remain WNW with some decrease in moisture as PW values drop to 100 to 125 percent above normal. As a result, may see less activity Mon aftn and evening. DCAPE values are fcst to rise to 1000 to 1500 j/kg, so there will be some potential for gusty outflow winds from the activity. Highs will be in the upper 80's to mid 90's. For Tue, the flow aloft will be slightly stronger from the WNW as a weak cool front moves into nern CO. As a result, will see temperatures drop back to more seasonal levels with an increase in low level moisture across nern CO. Will see a better chc of showers and tstms across the higher terrain by aftn. Across the plains, initial tstm development may focus over the Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide by mid to late aftn and then track across the plains by Tue evening. MLCAPE will range from 1000-1500 j/kg with favorable shear. Thus would expect a few svr storms across the plains. On Wed, the flow aloft will become more NWLY. MLCAPE will range from 1000-1500 j/kg, across nern CO, with the higher values over the I-25 Corridor. With favorable shear, should see a few svr storms by mid to aftn along portions of the I-25 Corridor which will move across the plains during the early evening hours. Over the higher terrain will see sct showers and storms. Highs on Wed, will stay in the 80's across the plains. Looking ahead to Thu and Fri, the upper level ridge will extend from the srn Rockies into the swrn US. As a result, this will leave the area in WNW flow on Thu becoming more westerly by Fri. Current data shows some decrease in moisture both days, however, still expect sct showers and storms over the higher terrain with widely sct activity across the plains. Highs will be near seasonal levels on Thu and then back to above normal by Fri. By next weekend, the flow aloft will become more WSW. Will still see some influx of monsoon moisture with widely sct showers and tstms possible both days. Highs will remain above normal. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday/... Issued at 1141 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Drainage flow has now returned at all TAF sites and should continue into mid-morning hours, before a light (under 8 kts) and generally more westerly wind takes over. Short-range guidance does indicate downsloping winds to briefly reach BJC between 13-17Z, so have introduced a TEMPO for that reason. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms still look affect all TAF sites tomorrow, with gusty outflow winds up to 30-35 kts. CAMs do indicate the potential for some showers to linger in the evening, so have introduced a PROB30 until 03Z. Behind convection, expect drainage flow to return. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RPK AVIATION...MAI  349 FXUS63 KARX 240548 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1248 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures and humidity gradually increasing through midweek with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. - Thunderstorm chances return Tuesday afternoon and evening. Some could be strong, mainly across the northwest half of our forecast area. - Lingering showers possible on Wednesday, with next chance of rain over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Fog potential this morning, gradual increase in warmth/moisture Cirrus from convection over North Dakota will continue to spill into the area early this morning. This complicates the forecast for potential fog development in valleys and low-lying areas, in what would otherwise be a decent synoptic setup with high pressure overhead. But evening HRRR runs trended toward some breezier winds of 10-15 knots in the 500-1500 ft layer. All this suggesting that fog may be more patchy this morning. There is an outside chance some decaying convective showers from the Northern Plains would be steered southeastward in the upper flow to clip areas west of the Mississippi River with some showers this afternoon. Several 24.00Z CAMs are showing this, but the HRRR is mainly dry. Daytime highs will be warming a bit today into midweek as southerly return flow develops. Moisture will also gradually be on the increase ahead of a pronounced upper shortwave trough progged to cut across northern Minnesota/Wisconsin toward Wednesday. Dewpoints will rise back into the 60s, and with a feed of Gulf moisture there is a >70% likelihood for precipitable water to climb above 1.25 inches by Tuesday afternoon. Storm chances on Tuesday, some could be strong Strong storm chances on Tuesday will hinge on magnitude of instability and its ramifications on how robust updrafts can become. GEFS 23.18Z probabilities for CAPE >1000 J/kg range from about 60-80% west of the Mississippi River to 50% or less in western Wisconsin. This was a slight decrease from the 12Z run as models are grappling with a potential EML and less favorable mid-level lapse rates. Capping and instability profiles will be most favorable for convection over our northwestern counties. That's also where favorable deep layer shear is most likely, with elongated hodographs perpendicular to an approaching cold front. Thus, it bears watching how all these elements will ultimately come together Tuesday afternoon-evening, with some strong to possibly severe storms looking to be a possibility. Rest of the week Cyclonic flow aloft persists into Wednesday which could foster some diurnal shower activity. The upper shortwave departs by Thursday with 850mb temps decreasing slightly overhead through Friday. The overall pattern shifts heading into next weekend as warm air advection ramps up. This will support a return of rain/storm chances but details are pretty murky that far out. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Fog formation over the next 6 hours is the most uncertain part of the forecast. While conditions seem favorable for fog at issuance with light winds and mostly clear skies, surface moisture has reduced over the past 2 days, some 15 knot winds look to be present just off the surface tonight, and cirrus is about to filter in from the north. Have therefore continued to keep reductions out of LSE with a BCFG group as a heads up. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kurz AVIATION...Ferguson  332 FXUS63 KFSD 240547 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1247 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms progress eastward into this morning. Further severe weather risks are very low, but locally heavy rain is expected under any thunderstorm. However, the risk for flash flooding is very low as well. - Monday evening and night could see an isolated severe storm, with the better chances in central SD and also near highway 14. - Otherwise most days through next week will see highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 902 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A weak area of convergence extending from roughly Ivanhoe, MN to Spirit Lake, IA may produce a sprinkle of two this evening, but the main area to watch will be in south-central South Dakota after midnight when the low level jet cranks up to around 30- 35 kts and helps develop showers and storms. Elevated instability values have trended up for tonight; however, the layers with access to the most CAPE will have less shear to work with and this imbalance will limit any severe weather potential. With the LLJ in place and drifting eastward, additional showers and storms will develop, increasing competition between updrafts which will also help limit the severe potential. Not to mention instability and shear will also be further decreasing as showers and storms move east-southeast into the early morning hours. All that to say, the only reasonable window for a storm to perhaps produce quarter-sized hail will be the initial development around 1-2 am in Gregory County, with any severe threat rapidly diminishing as new showers/storms develop and push east-southeast. Timing for shower and storms have also shifted a bit later in the latest guidance, with activity likely not reaching the I-29 corridor until closer to 5 am and the heavier showers now not pushing south of the area until closer to the 7-9 am time frame. Locally heavy rainfall is expected with any storms given high PWATs pushing 1.75+" but activity should be progressive enough to preclude any flooding concerns. A few pockets of 1-1.25" of rain will be possible where the strongest storms move over with very low chances (<5%) of a spot picking up 2" if a multiple storms go over an area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A pair of waves are affecting the area, or nearby, today. The first is moving southeast through Nebraska and is keeping any instability to the south and west bottled up. Model soundings not hinting at a whole lot of activity this afternoon, with a fairly dry and stable air mass in place. Tonight a second wave will pass by to the north and will swing a little bit of mid level moisture into the area. As this moisture moves in, some weak elevated instability, likely 500-750 J/kg CAPE develops. This will support some scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity, but for now severe weather looks unlikely. A few pockets of heavier rain are also possible, but also trending downward. Monday will see temperatures warm a bit with humidity likely to increase as well. This is in response to strengthening southerly flow as a stronger wave moves east along the Canadian border. This will increase instability, especially to the northwest of the area, and should bring scattered thunderstorms to parts of central SD and near the highway 14 corridor. With the potential for about 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE and decent unidirectional shear, and isolated severe storm will be possible in these locations. One area to watch will be near northwest IA late Monday afternoon and evening where there are some hints the cap could weaken a bit as elevated moisture advection bring some instability to that area. Low confidence, but something to monitor. Northwest flow aloft Tuesday into the weekend will keep seasonally warm temperatures in place with highs in the 80s and lows from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Starting to see a little more consistency on the next better chance for showers and thunderstorms on Friday. The latest Canadian, GEFS and EC ensembles all indicate about a 30-5- percent chance for a tenth of an inch or more of precipitation. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed in central South Dakota and will generally push east-southeastward through the rest of the night into the early morning hours today. Some lingering showers and thundershowers will continue to be possible through the rest of Monday morning mainly east of I-29 as well. Some guidance has also consistently been hinting at some MVFR stratus developing behind the main wave of showers/storms this morning mainly north of I-90. Confidence in this potential is on the lower side, but enough signals to include it at KHON. By this evening, additional thunderstorms will develop off to our west, though uncertainty is high regarding how far storms are able to progress east into our area if at all. For this reason, opted to exclude mention of this at KHON at this time. Winds will be mainly out of the south-southeast today, gusting up to 20 kts at times. Winds will gradually diminish towards the end of the period outside of any thunderstorms. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Samet DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...Samet  380 FXUS63 KLOT 240548 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1248 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The next chance of showers and thunderstorms is with a cold front moving across the area midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 135 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The weather pattern across the country for the next week looks to be dominated by a western ridge with troughing over the Great Lakes and Northeast. This leaves our area in northwest flow with pleasant temperatures and generally below average precipitation. Surface high pressure will settle into the middle Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes tonight through Monday night. This will result in light/calm winds, low dewpoints, and seasonable temperatures. Once diurnal cumulus dissipates this evening, skies should be clear tonight. The clear skies, low dewpoints, and calm winds should allow for strong radiational cooling. Low temperatures tonight should drop into the 50s, coolest away from the urban heat island where some of the typically colder spots could even dip into the upper 40s. While the boundary layer is dry, the nearly ideal radiational cooling set-up could allow for some areas of ground fog late tonight into early Monday morning, especially the typically fog favored low lying and cold air drainage areas. Monday should be a near carbon copy of today, but with less wind. In fact, not much change in the weather is expected through Tuesday. Later Tuesday into Tuesday night the longwave trough over the Great Lakes is expected to scoot off to the east, but fast on its heels looks to be another shortwave which will help reestablish the long wave trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast. A cold front associated with that next shortwave trough is progged to move across the area sometime Wednesday or Wednesday night. A frontal boundary stalled out across the Gulf States should limit moisture return in advance of this cold front. Despite somewhat marginal moisture return, fairly strong forcing and cooling temps aloft with the approaching upper trough could support some showers/storms when the front moves across the region sometime around Wednesday timeframe. Frontal timing could also play a role in coverage of showers and storms, if the front were to move through at a less diurnally favorable time, that would result in lower storm chances and rainfall amounts. In the wake of the front, another period of sunshine and seasonable temperatures with comfortable humidity looks to be on tap Thursday into Friday. There are some indications the long wave pattern across the CONUS could turn more zonal and potentially lead to more rain chances into next weekend, but that is still far out and confidence is not terribly high. - Izzi && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1248 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Key aviation forecast messages: - Lake breeze may turn winds east this afternoon at ORD/MDW Winds will remain light and variable through daybreak, potentially leaning more consistently westerly at the Chicago terminals due to a weak land breeze. Winds then settle into a prevailing NW to NNW after daybreak around 5-10 kt. A lake breeze is forecast to drift inland during the afternoon. While confidence in the timing that it reaches ORD/MDW remains on the lower side, did move up the wind shift by an hour at MDW to 20Z based on hi-res guidance trending a bit earlier there (maintained 22Z at ORD for now). VFR conditions are forecast through the period with varying coverage of diurnal cumulus around 5000 ft and occasional higher clouds. Can't fully rule out shallow fog (MIFG) developing outside of Chicago early this morning but the potential is too low to include a formal TAF mention. Petr && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  376 FXUS64 KHGX 240548 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1248 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory remains in effect. - Very hot conditions along with a risk of an isolated thunderstorm continues through Wednesday. - Chance of showers and thunderstorms increases later in the week as the heat eases somewhat. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1121 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The forecast through Wednesday remains unchanged due to the continued presence of strong mid/upper ridging aloft. Triple digit heat should reign supreme across inland regions, while highs at the beaches average in the low/mid 90s. Lower dew points will mix down to the surface during the afternoon. But even with this mixing, heat index values are expected to reach or exceed advisory criteria today, and possibly again tomorrow and Wednesday. There may be a little more in the way of clouds on Tuesday, which could help keep us a tad less hot and below advisory criteria. Regardless, hazardous heat will occur through Wednesday. An isolated shower/storm cannot be ruled out. Monday-Tuesday PoPs are ~10%. Global deterministic and ensemble guidance has trended towards a breakdown in the ridge during the second half of the week. This breakdown may be modest, with ensemble mean 500 MB heights only dropping from 595 dam to 592 dam. But the breakdown coupled with increasing disturbances aloft are leading to an upward trend in PoPs for the latter portion of the week (Thursday - Saturday). With increasing clouds and PoPs comes less hot temperatures. Most of the CWA is forecast to be in the seasonably miserable mid 90s by Friday and Saturday. The recent hot and dry spell has placed the area on a trajectory towards drought. So hopefully the increasingly wet signal late week is a trend that continues in future updates. Self && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1121 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites. Winds continue to veer WSW/SW overnight. Winds turn to the SSE and increase to the 7-12 kt range once again tomorrow afternoon. Early tomorrow morning around sunrise, another round of MVFR CIG/VIS is possible, mainly south of I-10. Any MVFR CIGs that develop are expected to be short lived. VIS is expected to drop to 6-9 SM, with localized lower spots. VFR conditions return by about 15Z tomorrow at all TAF sites. MLG && .MARINE... Issued at 1121 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A typical summertime pattern will continue through much of the next week. Overnight winds are expected to be southwesterly, potentially from the west during the predawn and morning hours. Then winds should become more southerly during the afternoon hours. Winds in the bays should average 10-15 knots with occasional gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon and early evening hours, before becoming lighter during the overnight hours. Meanwhile, offshore Gulf winds will be highest at night (10-15 knots gusting 20 knots) and lower during the day. Isolated shower or storm possible through Wednesday. Chance of showers and storms increases later in the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 104 78 103 77 / 20 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 102 80 101 79 / 20 0 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 93 83 93 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Self AVIATION...MLG MARINE...Self  381 FXUS64 KLCH 240548 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1248 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect again today from 11 AM until 8 PM. Afternoon highs will again flirt with or exceed 100 degrees with maximum apparent temperatures ranging from 107 to 115. Temperatures will remain above normal through Wednesday before returning nearer to normal through the second half of the week. - Scattered (30-60%) thunderstorms will develop in the vicinity of the Atchafalaya basin this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. Precipitation chances will be lower across southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. - Precipitation chances will increase (50-80%) area wide Thursday and Friday with scattered (30-50%) thunderstorms expected each afternoon next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Afternoon highs Sunday fell a few degrees short of records, but still maxed out 5-10 degrees above climatological normals a persistent upper level ridge remains centered over the south central CONUS. Temperatures at this hour remain in the low to mid 80s everywhere that wasn't fortunate enough to see the few afternoon thunderstorms that managed to develop. Lows will struggle to fall below 80 with consistent dewpoints in the upper 70s. No changes were made to the previously issued heat advisory which will again be in effect from 11 AM until 8 PM today. Maximum heat indices will range from 107-115 with the most intense heat expected across southeast Texas where the ridging will be stronger limiting convection and cloud cover. Deeper moisture wrapping around the eastern periphery of the aforementioned ridge will offer somewhat higher (30-60%) precipitation chances in the vicinity of the Atchafalaya basin late this afternoon into this evening. Height falls from a trough extending across much of the eastern U.S. may provide some weak synoptic lifting to aid in convective development, but the vast majority of energy will come from strong instability from another day of afternoon highs near triple digits. SPC has highlighted south central and southeast Louisiana in a slight risk for severe weather Monday afternoon with the only real hazard being damaging straight line winds from collapsing storm cores. Some small hail also cannot be ruled out. A similar setup is expected both Tuesday and Wednesday as better moisture and weak troughing will offer better (40-70%) precipitation chances across Acadiana and into southeast Louisiana with more limited (20-30%) chances across southwest Louisiana and virtually none across southeast Texas. Guidance has been in consistent agreement on the "heat dome" ridge finally beginning to retrograde west Thursday becoming centered near the four corners region. With it's retreat, higher moisture and broader troughing along with a weak surface boundary will move into the region providing the first high (50-80%) chance of precipitation the area has seen in some time. The better upper level support may allow storms to continue Thursday night into Friday with continued afternoon storms through next weekend. The departure of the ridge combined with the higher convection and cloud cover will allow daily temperatures to fall back to near seasonal normals with highs in the low to mid 90s and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Jones && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period along with light southwesterly winds. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across parts of central and south central Louisiana potentially impacting AEX, LFT and ARA between 19-02Z. Precipitation chances diminish further west with BPT and LCH less likely to see any impacts from storms. Jones && .MARINE... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Light onshore winds will persist through the week with seas ranging from 1-2 feet. Precipitation chances return across the coastal waters Thursday into next weekend as higher moisture and a weak upper level trough move into the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop each day through Wednesday with the highest probabilities in and around the Atchafalaya basin. Better precipitation chances are expected area wide Thursday through next weekend as upper level ridging breaks down. The higher precipitation chances and cloud cover will bring daily high temperatures back down into the low to mid 90s. KBDI values presently range from 530 to 750 across the region and will continue climbing as drought conditions worsen over the next couple of weeks. Daily minimum relative humidity will range from 40- 50% away from the immediate coastline through the middle of the week. Personal outdoor burning is strongly discouraged. Burn bans have been issued for most parishes and counties by local governments. Consult your local fire departments for more information. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243- 252>254. TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66 AVIATION...66  414 FXUS61 KPBZ 240550 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 150 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Overall forecast messaging remains unchanged as the next impactful weather period is focused on Thursday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry weather is favored through Wednesday as temperature slowly rises back toward daily averages. 2) Mostly dry through Wednesday. Precipitation chances increase Thursday, with some low-end potential for severe weather depending on future model trends. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Lingering showers early this morning exit the region shortly after sunrise as the mid-level shortwave shifts east. Though cold core processes underneath the upper trough plus a weak embedded may be enough for an isolated afternoon shower north of I-80, the start of height rises with building surface high pressure favors dry weather for the rest of the day. The cooler airmass will keep high temperature around 10 degrees below the daily average. For reference, the forecasted high of 70 at the Pittsburgh International Airport would be tied for the 10th lowest high on record for the calendar day and the lowest since 1997 (68 degrees). This will be short- lived as height rises through Wednesday return readings back to the daily average. KEY MESSAGE 2... Ensemble models are in fairly high agreement that the next upper trough will sweep through the Ohio River Valley Thursday into Friday morning, creating the next round of precipitation chances. There are subtle differences in timing of showers/thunderstorms and the potential storm environment, but scenarios do exist for enough CAPE (1000+ J/kg) and shear (25-30kts) to suggest a low probability severe threat centered around damaging winds. After this wave passes, guidance does suggest another few days of dry weather under the influence of high pressure/height rises before hinting at a more active (multiple rounds of thunderstorms) pattern starting at the end of the weekend into the following week. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The combination of nighttime rain and breaks in the clouds may allow for pockets of stratus/fog to develop (favoring FKL/DUJ/MGW) through the pre-dawn hours. Otherwise, VFR is favored through the TAF period with a low probability for MVFR cigs as scattered to locally broken CU develops after 14z with diurnal heating. Afternoon wind gusts out of the west generally hover between 15-20kts, with a low probability of touching 25kts. Outlook... Outside of localized river valley fog, VFR expected through Wednesday. The next widespread rain chances arrive Thursday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Frazier AVIATION...Frazier  461 FXUS62 KCAE 240551 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 151 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. Updated 06z Aviation. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm chances each day this week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm chances each day this week. A weak frontal boundary remains stalled across the Midlands, roughly along the I-20 corridor and is expected to linger toward the coast this week. This boundary is evident in the dewpoint gradient, with values in the mid-70s to our south/east and mid-60s to our north/west. Through today and into Tuesday, the upper-level pattern will support northwest flow and continued advection of direr air into the region. As a result, rain chances will remain low, with only isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms possible. Thermodynamic profiles are expected to remain unfavorable for deep convection, with only shallow, fair weather cumulus in the afternoon. Temps will remain near normal, although still relatively warm as highs reach the low 90s. Lower dewpoints should also keep heat indices from becoming overly oppressive compared to recent weeks. Moisture will gradually increase from mid to late week, leading to increasing afternoon thunderstorm coverage. LREF probabilities indicate a 50-70 percent chance of PWAT values exceeding 1.75 inches beginning Wednesday. This increase in moisture, combined with upper- level troughing should support greater chances for diurnal convection. Weak shortwaves embedded within the flow may provide additional forcing and further enhance coverage. Thursday currently appears to have the greatest potential for precipitation as the stalled boundary may become reactivated into the FA. However, there remains uncertainty in the evolution and placement of the front. At this time, a significant airmass change appears unlikely, with seasonably warm and humid conditions expected to persist through the period with daily convection chances. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR Conditions expected through the period. Drier air filtered into the area yesterday with low level moisture lacking at the terminals. As a result, restrictions are not expected to develop through the TAF period. Generally westerly winds around 5 to 10 knots expected through today. High resolution guidance favors any thunderstorm development to remain east of the terminals with lower than 30 percent thunderstorm probabilities so have left out any mention of tsra. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated storms each afternoon with higher coverage of storms expected by midweek. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ND AVIATION...96  408 FXUS65 KPSR 240550 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1050 PM MST Sun Aug 23 2026 .UPDATE...Updated 06z Aviation Discussion... && .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, some strong to severe, are expected this evening across south-central Arizona. - Increasingly less favorable conditions for thunderstorms will develop starting Monday with virtually no chances for rain from Tuesday through the rest of the week. - High temperatures will reach or exceed 110 degrees nearly every day this week and will be near daily records, while morning lows remain unusually warm. - Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect through Saturday with daily Major to Extreme HeatRisk. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Some upper level jet support and mid-level gravity waves helped spark off a line of high-based scattered showers and storms across southwest AZ this morning. This activity has since weakened and dissipated. Surface-based moisture has also increased across southwest AZ and areas south of I-8. Dew point temperatures at midday in Yuma County to western Pima County were up to 65-75 degrees. This moisture return in southern AZ will likely help fuel later afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Overall, model guidance still suggests this afternoon through this evening becoming a somewhat busy monsoon period. Outside of southern AZ, where the best moisture return was, boundary layer conditions remain similar to the past couple of days with sub-optimal moisture (mixing ratios around 8 g/kg) and limited instability (few hundred J/kg MLCAPE). Initially through much of, if not all of, this afternoon storms should favor higher terrain areas, including portions of La Paz County, and it may even look like it will not become active at all. However, hi-res guidance continues to show the best time period for activity across south-central AZ coming around and after sunset. Guidance shows storms being a bit slower to develop in Pima County, but when they do they do they will have the best potential to become strong to severe, tapping into the best moisture and instability. The storms to the south this evening will then be capable of pushing one or multiple strong and dusty outflows northward into south-central AZ, which may then trigger additional storms. Some hi-res model runs also suggest outflow collisions may occur, with outflows also from the north, but confidence in outflows coming down from northern AZ is low. Additionally, there are indications the storms to the south may develop into an MCV and track northward through Phoenix this evening. Strong to locally severe wind gusts will be the primary weather hazards, with very high DCAPE values up to 1800-2000 J/kg. Localized flash flooding may also become a threat with any slow-moving storms or training of storms, with the best potential southwest of Phoenix where moisture will be highest. Convective chances for Monday are even more uncertain as guidance generally shows at most a 10% chance despite moisture and instability being better than today. However, subsidence will be much stronger on Monday as the subtropical ridge begins to move westward back into our region. We will have to wait until tonight to have a better idea on the storm potential for Monday, but it does seem to be considerably lower than this afternoon/evening. Temperatures today will again be right near record highs with lower desert readings from 110-115 degrees. The increased boundary layer moisture expected for Monday should hold daytime highs down a bit with NBM forecast highs currently between 106-111 degrees, but heat indices will mostly match what are expected today. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecast attention turns away from monsoon storm potential and back toward the extreme heat conditions starting Tuesday. The subtropical high center will continue to shift westward into our region into the middle part of the week with the center likely settling somewhere over southern Arizona from Wednesday through at least Friday or Saturday. Forecast H5 heights are also shown to reach 594-597dm for the latter half of the week which places it just shy of climatological records for late August. NBM temperature guidance remains quite consistent showing highs rising into a 112-116 degree range for the latter half of this week as conditions dry out. Daily temperature records in Phoenix will continue to be in jeopardy through the entire week, but are likely to fall short in Yuma and El Centro. Once the high center moves overhead by Wednesday, rain chances will essentially go to 5% or less. As of now, conditions for any monsoon storm activity do not look good through next weekend. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0550Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Gusty winds and SHRA/TSRA activity in the vicinity during the next couple of hours will be the main aviation weather concern throughout the TAF period. SHRA/TSRA activity, with the greatest concentration to the southwest of the terminals will continue through 07Z, with VCSH lingering a bit longer into the overnight period. Wind directions through at least the first part of the overnight will continue to remain erratic due to convective activity nearby before becoming light and variable to light easterly by sunrise through early Monday morning before shifting out of the west by the late morning hours. Much quieter conditions are expected on Monday with no threat of outflows/thunderstorms. SCT-BKN mid to high clouds will continue through the overnight period before coverage decreases to FEW-SCT during the day Monday. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation concerns under FEW-SCT mid/high cloud decks can be expected throughout the TAF period. Winds will generally be out of the southeast at KIPL and will fluctuate between the south- southeast to southwest at KBLH. Overall wind speeds will range between 8-15 kts, highest at KBLH. && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot temperatures will prevail through the entire week with shower thunderstorm chances mainly today and possibly Monday. Strong gusty winds will be possible late this afternoon and evening with any thunderstorms, while chances for wetting rains will remain below 20%. Minimum RHs will improve through Monday with readings of 15-25% today and 20-30% Monday, before dropping back into the teens into the middle part of the week. Temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees above normal, with lower desert highs eclipsing 110 degrees nearly every afternoon. Outside of thunderstorm outflow winds, winds will follow the typical diurnal tendencies with some modest afternoon upslope gustiness. && .CLIMATE... Record highs: Date Phoenix Yuma El Centro ---- ------- ---- --------- Aug 23 114 in 2011 115 in 2011 116 in 1969 Aug 24 115 in 2020 119 in 1985 117 in 1985 Aug 25 113 in 2011 116 in 1962 117 in 1962 Aug 26 117 in 2011 115 in 2020 115 in 1981 Aug 27 114 in 2023 120 in 1981 117 in 1981 Aug 28 117 in 2023 118 in 2023 117 in 2009 Aug 29 116 in 2023 117 in 1954 117 in 2005 && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ530>555-559- 560. CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ562-565>567- 569-570. && $$ SHORT TERM...Benedict/Kuhlman LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...Lojero FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman CLIMATE...18/Kuhlman  456 FXUS66 KLOX 240551 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1051 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS...23/1045 PM. Very hot conditions will dominate the week, with a high risk for heat illness. Patchy night through morning low clouds and locally dense fog will be confined to coastal areas, mainly north of Point Conception. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...23/818 PM. A large dome of high pressure aloft, affecting the southern half of the United States, will dominate the week ahead. The core of the high is currently centered over New Mexico and Texas, and will change little through Monday, but then start to shift to the west on Tuesday. By Thursday, the core of the high will be centered over Arizona, right on our doorstep. Meanwhile, Onshore flow will weaken a little and the low-level prevailing flow will become more northerly. These two ingredients will bring even hotter conditions that what we saw over the weekend, with the noticeable jump happening on Tuesday or Wednesday. All areas 5-10 miles inland of the beaches will likely see high temperatures in the 100-110 range by Tuesday or Wednesday, with little change through Friday or Saturday. The northerly shift in the flow means that the hottest conditions will not be in the desert, but in the coastal valleys. Expecting several calendar day records to fall. Overnight conditions will be warm as well. The magnitude of the daytime temperatures, the limited relief overnight, and the prolonged nature of this heat event raises the bar to the high level in terms of the risk for heat-related illness. The current suite of Heat Advisories and Extreme Heat Watches looks good. Expecting most of the areas, especially inland of the beaches, to be upgraded to Extreme Heat Warnings by tomorrow or Tuesday, with most of the rest of the area not covered (SLO and northern Santa Barbara Counties) being added to the part with either Advisories or Warnings. Sundowner winds will affect southern Santa Barbara County through the week, and should increase some each night. Wind Advisories might be needed by Tuesday. The shallow marine layer will likely keep low clouds and dense fog on the Central Coast through Tuesday, but developing offshore flow may either keep it off the coast after that or complete scour it out. If that happens, expect temperatures to increase above current projections (although they have been upped to better account for this possibility). How the marine layer will behave over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties is anyones guess at this point. There are indications of a coastal eddy forming by Tuesday, which increases the odds of some shallow low clouds at the coast, but it is a really tough call. .LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...23/300 AM. The only real question for the Wed through Fri forecast is: will it be very hot or extremely hot. This forceast problem is driven by a wide range of possibilities with the sfc gradients. The EC is show a fairly strong offshore push which would bring near record very dangerous heat to the area. The GFS keeps the E/W gradient onshore but even it has some offshore flow forecast from the north (just much less than the EC does). The upper high moves a little to the west but hgts really do not change much and should remain around 594 dam through the period. Almost all of the vlys, lower mtn elevations and far interior will have temps between 100 and 110 degrees during this period. If the EC verifies Vly temps could end up 2 to 3 degrees warmer than the current forecast. The interior cst sections (such as DTLA) have a 15 percent chc of high temps of 100 to 103 degrees. The Central Coast will not be immune from the heat this time around. Offshore trends will lead to an 8 to 12 degree warm up on Wednesday leading to max temps in the upper 80s to mid90s - there is a 10-20 percent chc that SLO could see 100 degrees. In addition to the daytime highs overnight lows will be 8 to 12 degrees above normal and this will greatly exacerbate the heat risk as there will be no time for people's body to release the heat stress. It is very likely that almost the entire forecast area will be blanketed by some combination of heat advisories and Extreme Heat Warnings starting Wednesday. One additional local concern will be very hot sundowners across southern SBA county. A decent N to S gradient will set up over the county each evening and gusty north canyon winds will develop. These hot winds could drive max temps into the 100-105 degree range and could also keep temperatures in the 80s until almost dawn. Some cooling is forecast on Saturday, but in the past these heat waves have held on a little longer than forecast. && .AVIATION...24/0025Z. At 2327Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 500 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 2500 feet with a temperature of 30 degrees Celsius. For the 00Z TAF package, high confidence in KPRB, KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KWJF and KPMD. For KSBP, there is a 40-50% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop tonight. For KSMX, timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecast, with a 20% chance of brief or no CIGs forming. For KLAX and KLGB, there is a 10-20% chance of LIFR/IFR conditions 08Z-17Z. KLAX...Overall, good confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 20% chance of LIFR/IFR conditions 08Z-17Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in the 00Z TAF. && .MARINE...23/806 PM. For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Friday, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are expected to continue although the winds will drop briefly across PZZ670 tonight and Monday. Short period SCA level seas (5 to 7 feet at 6-8 seconds) will continue along with the gusty winds. Wednesday into Thursday, larger seas approaching 7-9 feet are likely. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Monday night, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Tuesday through Friday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds each afternoon and evening. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Friday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds Monday through Friday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory in effect until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through Friday evening for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 4 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...RK/Rorke AVIATION...Ciliberti MARINE...RAT/Ciliberti SYNOPSIS...RK weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  498 FXUS61 KCLE 240552 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 152 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the upcoming forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms are expected across parts of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania this evening into early tonight. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds and small hail is possible this evening. 2) Cooler weather with occasional lake effect rain showers continue across parts of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through early Tuesday. 3) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday night into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... An upper-level low remains situated over the Great Lakes region today with the occluded surface low right along the Ontario/Quebec border. A compact mid-level shortwave trough is working its way around western edge of the upper low and will approach the forecast from the north this evening. Paired with the left exit region of a jet streak over the western Great Lakes and we have solid forcing for ascent and pretty good confidence in timing and areal extent of precipitation this evening into early tonight. We start with scattered showers and storms areawide this afternoon as MLCAPE exceeds 250 J/kg underneath the jet streak forcing. The impending shortwave will focus a better period of thunderstorm development roughly along and northeast of I-80 in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania between 7 PM and 12 AM. This is where MLCAPE will be greatest (>500 J/kg) and exists the chance for organized convection that will have the potential for lightning, gusty winds (most likely in the 40-50 mph range), small hail, and heavy rain. While the mid-level speed max will be offset to the southwest, effective bulk shear of around 25-35 knots should be sufficient for an organized convection. Deep layer shear should be enough to produce strong winds but lack of DCAPE and waning low-level lapse rates is likely to make 40-50 mph gusts more common rather than 58+ mph (severe thunderstorm warning criteria). Small hail is likely to be pretty common in most thunderstorms this evening, aided by low freezing heights around 8-9kft and modest mid-level lapse rates. Large hail at or exceeding 1" is unlikely but possible with any rotating updrafts. Heavy rain is likely with thunderstorms with minor flooding possible is low-lying or flood-prone areas. Precipitation is unlikely to reach amounts for flash flooding. KEY MESSAGE 2.. Below normal temperatures continue through at least Tuesday with lake effect rain showers continuing tonight through Tuesday morning. Rain is likely to be more more persistent in Northwest Pennsylvania, compared to the "snowbelt" region of Northeast Ohio where rain showers will be more intermittent. KEY MESSAGE 3... Temperatures and humidity build back to near normal Wednesday and Thursday ahead of our next upper-level trough and low pressure system. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday night into Thursday with PoPs peaking in the 40-60% range. Can't completely rule out severe weather, but at this point most storms look to remain sub-severe. && .AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Main potential impacts this TAF period are lake effect clouds and rain showers across parts of Northeast OH and Northwest PA, and slightly elevated west-northwest winds increasing to 10-15kt with some 20-25kt gusts late this morning and this afternoon. Main impacts from the lake effect will be at ERI, where occasional and mainly short-lived vsby restrictions are possible with any showers that impact the field. Shower activity may focus a bit south and east for the most part. Some showers may impact CLE, primarily early this morning, though for the most part CLE will be dry. A broken cloud deck below 5000 feet will likely develop across Northeast OH and Northwest PA for several hours this afternoon before scattering out or lifting this evening. Western terminals should remain VFR throughout. Outlook...Non-VFR possible at times in lake effect rain and/or low ceilings in far NE OH and NW PA into Tuesday. Non-VFR may return in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday. && .MARINE... Rough marine conditions will continue across much of Lake Erie through Monday with elevated west to northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots resulting in waves of 3 to 6 feet. Marine conditions will gradually improve Monday night into Tuesday as winds subside to 10 knots or less. Winds will shift towards the south to southwest on Wednesday, increasing into the 10 to 15 knot range by Thursday. A few stronger wind gusts in excess of 34 knots are likely across the central and eastern basin of Lake Erie through this evening, associated with showers and thunderstorms. There is also a risk for waterspouts into Tuesday morning. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for OHZ009-010. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for OHZ011-012- 089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ144- 145. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LEZ146>149. && $$ DISCUSSION...Saunders AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...Kahn  473 FXUS63 KGLD 240551 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1151 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another chance for storms this evening and Monday afternoon. 1 inch hail and 65 MPH winds are the primary threats. There is a low chance that a supercell may form and produce hail around 2 inches and/or a wind gust up to 75 mph. - Better chance for severe weather on Tuesday, with all hazards possible. - Above normal temperatures through at least mid week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1104 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Thru Tuesday, there is not much change to the overall pattern. An upper ridge remains forecast to be anchored over the southwest and Southern Plains, with upper troughing over the Eastern U.S. This is generally going to keep the area under northwest flow aloft. The only change in the upper pattern is that another trough is forecast to move around the ridge the next few days. This will help supply some chances for storms, especially on Tuesday. Near the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast to move into the area today, then slowly push a bit to the southeast of the area Monday and Tuesday. This is leading to breezy winds for today with winds from the south at 15-20 mph with gusts in the 25-40 mph range. Winds should be lighter the next few days around 10-15 mph as the low is forecast to broaden out a bit. For temperatures, highs are forecast to be in the 90s each day with mid to upper 90s possible tomorrow when the upper ridge is most amplified over the area. Lows should generally be in the 60s, with maybe a few 70s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. In regards to storms, the overall progression and timing will be similar through Tuesday. Storms are forecast to develop west of the area during the afternoon and late afternoon hours each day. The storms would then likely enter the area around 5-8pm MT and try and push east through the area. The main peak in storm intensity would generally be between 5-10pm MT, with severe weather possible mainly in the form of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storm activity could persist through the night each day, but would mostly likely end by 1-4am CT. The storms this evening are forecast to be on the marginal side with an environment that is capped, has effective shear around 20-30 kts, and 1500-2500 J/kg. While supportive of storm activity, most storms will likely pulse up and down with not much to show for it. Still, they may be able to produce 1 inch hail and a few wind gusts around 60 mph. There is, about a 15% chance that supercell is able to form, especially if the environment modifies to have the higher end of the shear and instability values. In this case, be alert for large hail potentially reaching around 2 inches and wind gusts around 70-80 mph. The severe threat looks to largely be confined to counties along the Colorado border, with increasingly stable air to the east and the upstream upper trough lifting more to the north and weakening its influence in the area as the evening goes on. Tomorrow, the shear is forecast to remain around 20-30 kts while the instability and lapse rates are forecast to be a bit lower compared to today. The lesser instability is from the forecast calling for dewpoints to drop into the 50s and low 60s across most of the area. If this happens along the with upper trough sliding along the Northern Plains, the storms would probably move into the area a few hours later (likely closer to 7-9pm MT). They would also be less likely to be severe, though one or two could still produce wind gusts around 60 mph and maybe some hail close to an inch in size. The main concern for this would be if a cluster develops in Western Nebraska and pushes south into the area. Tuesday, dewpoints are forecast to recover with most of the area in the 60s. With instability forecast to be closer to 3000 J/kg, 0-6km shear around 40 kts,and the upper trough moving through the Plains in the northwest flow, Tuesday may have the most support for storm development and strength. The main question seems to be how quickly storms cluster and do they form in the area. If the storms form in the area and/or stay isolated, the risk for large hail above 2 inches increases. Otherwise, the threat for wind gusts around 70 mph would be greater. Strong winds and large hail would be possible either way, but it will be hard for either hazard to reach its full potential without storms being in a certain mode. Another sneaky hazard is the potential for a tornado or two. While the environment isn't very supportive of tornadoes, supercells may be able to briefly produce one. The bigger tornado concern is if a line forms like some guidance is suggesting and sweeps through the area from northwest to southeast. With 0-3km shear vectors forecast to be from the south/southeast at 15-25 mph, a QLCS tornado or two may occur. There is a foil for this in that storms that develop ahead of the main clusters and lines may cause them to become disorganized and fall apart. With this, currently keeping the threat for tornadoes on the lower side, with the greater concern and emphasis on wind and hail. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1244 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Synoptically, the ridge to the west is forecast to mainly remain stationary over the Four Corners region, keeping us in northwesterly flow throughout the period. Guidance indicates the ridge may begin to amplify on Wednesday, and begin to de-amplify come Friday as a trough moves through the US/Canadian Border. Shortwaves are expected to move through the area during the week and into the weekend, increasing precipitation chances. High temperatures for the period will generally remain in the 90s. Wednesday appears to be the "coolest" day, with highs ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s. Saturday is forecast to be the warmest, with highs in the upper 90s and the potential for a few locations to reach the low 100s. If the ridge begins to move eastward, then higher than forecasted temperatures could be seen. Winds are expected to remain calm to breezy throughout the period. Precipitation chances are present throughout the period. Wednesday and Thursday hold the highest potential, with PoPs in the 20-50% range, as shortwaves move through the area during the afternoon and evening hours. While instability and shear parameters appear sufficient for severe storms, model guidance suggests some variability in CAPE and shear values, which could lead to less organized storms and reduced severe chances. Precipitation chances then begins to taper off to 5-25% for Friday through Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1150 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period at both KGLD and KMCK. Winds will start the period primarily out of the south at both airports, but will begin to rotate clockwise throughout the period for KGLD. Winds for KMCK will become more easterly during the mid-afternoon hours today. There is a small probability for fog to develop at KMCK (10%) from about 09-12z, and would be most likely if cloud cover can clear out and allow for radiational cooling. Both KGLD and KMCK have a risk for thunderstorms toward the end of the TAF period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...Holdren AVIATION...Davis  508 FXUS65 KGJT 240553 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1153 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - This week will see daily afternoon thunderstorm chances, particularly along the higher terrain of western Colorado and eastern Utah. - Localized heavy rainfall continues to pose a threat to flash flooding over burn scars and susceptible terrain. - Daytime highs will run ~5 degrees above normal to start the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1014 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 THIS WEEK: The current synoptic level setup continues to be dominated by high pressure over the west. Beginning on Monday, moisture and PWAT anomalies begin to take a downturn compared to previous days. This will mean less widespread precipitation chances for the area. However, there remains enough moisture to cause daily afternoon thunderstorm chances over the higher terrain. Orographic lift will also be a contributing factor to help enhance these mountain storm chances. Additionally, morning cloud cover has the ability to dictate where storm activity materializes as daytime heating can affect the evolution of storms. As a result of all of this, localized heavy rainfall is possible from these storms which inherently poses a threat of flash flooding, especially around burn scars and susceptible terrain. By midweek, the high gradually shifts back towards the Desert Southwest. Because of the continuous presence of moisture, each afternoon's storm chances may look similar to each other. That is, isolated to scattered and mostly confined to the higher terrain. Synoptic forcing will be somewhat weak for this period, with the occasional shortwave interrupting the flow around the high, which will provide some additional lift. So long as the surface levels remain saturated in certain places, flash flooding will remain a concern, particularly for burn scars and susceptible terrain. Primary threats with these storms continue to be localized heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty outflows. Daytime highs will start off ~5 degrees above normal to start the week, with a slight uptick to ~5-10 degrees above normal by late week. By the weekend, temperatures begin to gradually decrease each day. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1123 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Isolated showers with an occasional thunderstorm are tracking east across the region generally north of I-70. Look for these to continue overnight and into the morning. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will redevelop over the higher terrain with some impact to the mountain TAF sites between 18Z and 00Z. Lightning, gusts to 45 kts and some hail are the threats from these storms generally along and north of the I-70 corridor. These storms will diminish after about 02Z. Otherwise expect VFR conditions with generally light terrain driven winds. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BS AVIATION...DB  545 FXUS61 KBUF 240555 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 155 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Cool weather and periodic showers and thunderstorms, some of the lake-effect variety, are expected through Tuesday. 2.) Dry weather expected region-wide this Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Cool weather and periodic showers and thunderstorms, some of the lake-effect variety, are expected through Tuesday. Surface low pressure near far SW Quebec this early morning will slowly fill as it lifts northeastward today, while aloft a mid/upper level closed low will pass across our region. Two noted short-wave troughs, one near Lake Erie this morning, and a second near the eastern waters of Lake Ontario this afternoon will bring added lift to enhance showers and isolated thunderstorms. Under this upper level low, 850 hPa temperatures will lower to around +7C that with plenty of clouds around will leave temperatures through the afternoon in the 60s...or about 10 to 15 degrees below normal. This cool airmass will also generate a fair amount of lake enhanced rain showers as well as diurnally driven showers and isolated thunderstorms. Initial showers and thunderstorms this morning near Lake Erie and far WNY will diminish through the mid morning hours. As daytime instability increases showers and a few thunderstorms will increase inland, in addition to periodic lake enhanced batches of showers arriving near the lake shores off the Lakes. This secondary shortwave will enhance the coverage area of convection this afternoon towards the Finger Lakes and eastern Lake Ontario region. Tonight, while inland convection will begin to wane, the still cool cyclonic flow over the warm lake waters will continue to generate periodic showers off the warm lake waters. Deeper moisture will be found over Lake Ontario, and will place higher PoPs, and greater amount of QPF here tonight for continued lake effect rain showers, while scattered and lighter rain showers will be found off Lake Erie. On a WNW flow Tuesday rain showers will begin to taper off south and southeast of first Lake Erie and then Lake Ontario as deeper moisture wanes. A few afternoon showers and perhaps a thunderstorm near the exiting upper level low will remain east of Lake Ontario. Key Message 2...Dry weather expected region-wide this Tuesday night and Wednesday. By Tuesday night a mid level shortwave ridge will replace the recently departed upper level low, with a surface ridge of high pressure expanding northeastward across our region from the Ohio Valley. This will bring clearing skies Tuesday night, with some valley fog across the Southern Tier/Black River Valley. The surface high pressure will crest over our region Wednesday, and with a light southeasterly flow afternoon temperatures will return back to normal under a mix of sunshine a fair weather cumulus. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Cool moist cyclonic flow around the mid-level low will support rounds of showers and some thunderstorms that may at times impact terminals through Monday night. As diurnal heating returns, shower and thunderstorms will increase in coverage across the area by early this afternoon. Any amount of sunshine will quickly support cloud development with MVFR/ low end VFR CIGS of 2500-3500 feet. Showers and thunderstorms will decrease in coverage beginning Monday night but a few storms will still be possible once again overnight as a cool upper level low rotates across the Lower Great Lakes. Outlook... Tuesday through Tuesday night...Showers and maybe a thunderstorm will still be possible with localized restrictions.Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR, except MVFR/IFR conditions possible from scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. && .MARINE... A cool upper level low passing across the eastern Great Lakes region today will continue a southwesterly flow of 15 to 25 knots over the Lakes that will bring continued small craft advisory conditions to the Lakes. Behind a surface trough winds will veer to more westerly tonight with waters remaining choppy, but diminishing through the night. This flow will veer slightly further Tuesday with a WNY flow Tuesday morning beginning to diminish in the afternoon with the exiting upper level low, and the approach of a surface high pressure. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements remain in effect. Lake-effect rain showers and thunderstorms may produce waterspouts through Tuesday, amidst sizable lake-induced instability as cool air associated with cyclonic flow around an upper-level low crosses the warm lakes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for NYZ001>007. Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ010-019- 085. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LOZ042>045. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thomas AVIATION...AR MARINE...Thomas  689 FXUS61 KCTP 240558 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 158 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Severe threat for today is winding down, but a gusty thunderstorm can not be ruled out in NW PA tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Upper low over the Great Lakes will move southeast tonight then pull off to the northeast Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will move through the northern tier periodically through early Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Upper low over the Great Lakes will move southeast tonight then pull off to the northeast Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will move through the northern tier periodically through early Tuesday. A 70 kt jet max at 500 mb rounding the base of the upper trough over the Great Lakes will provide deep synoptic lift for an area of rain with embedded thunderstorms pivoting across NW PA tonight. Storms have been severe warned in Ohio as they have come off Lake Erie, but they are expected to weaken significantly as they move southeastward towards central PA. There is some degree of west-east training with these storms, so northwestern Warren Co may end up seeing as much as 0.75-1.00 of rain, mostly falling before 2 AM. Less rainfall is expected to the south and east, with little to none south of I-80 and east of the Laurels. We expect less coverage of SHRA/TSRA Monday without good PVA moving across. However, the cold pool aloft and heating should make isolated to scattered convection along at least the northern tier. It is unlikely that any precip will get south of I-80, but there will be plenty of clouds. Some showers will linger into the night and possibly early Tuesday before drier air works in as the upper trough departs. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upper level trough swinging across the area along with a west to southwest flow over the Great Lakes will continue to bring clouds and periods of rain mainly across the Laurels and northwestern PA. Weather pattern more typical of late September than late August. With another shortwave impulse, bands of showers are weakening but still trekking eastward and may briefly lead to restrictions at JST, AOO, and IPT from 06Z to 08Z. Post rain restrictions are look most likely at BFD and JST in the form of low ceilings building in. IFR ceilings are possible in the early morning hours with confidence highest at BFD (50-70%). VFR elsewhere. After daybreak, isolated showers and possibly a thundershower remain in the forecast across the northern tier. Cumulus and stratocu will build through the day, but bases will generally rise to VFR levels in the afternoon. MVFR cigs are expected to linger longest at BFD. Outlook... Tue...MVFR cigs possible in the AM across the NW, then trending VFR. Showers/thunderstorms possible in northern tier. Wed...Patchy morning fog, otherwise mainly VFR conditions. Thu-Fri...Chance of showers and storms again, mainly Thursday PM. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Colbert DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Colbert AVIATION...Lambrech/Colbert