941 FXUS63 KOAX 240409 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1109 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight into Monday morning. Severe weather is not expected. - Clouds and rain chances will keep temperatures cooler Monday, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. - Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances continue into the work week, with high temperatures generally in the low to mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The upper pattern revealed by water vapor imagery is dominated by the persistent ridge centered over west Texas and a deep cut- off low spinning cyclonically over the Great Lakes. Betwixt the two, Iowa and Nebraska are under northwest flow aloft. Radar returns this evening have been slowly tapering as they've drifted southeast into a drier and more stable airmass. Temps and dewpoints are in the 60s as winds have become light and variable. It's a little muggy but pleasant outside. This would be a good set-up for fog, but for the increasing clouds expected overnight. Any development should be patchy at best. More showers and storms are expected to develop soon as the nocturnal jet gets act together. The jet will reach farther north than normal, likely initiating the storms in South Dakota. These storms are progged to push south-southeast overnight, passing through the Yankton/Sioux City area around 5am (60% PoPs), and through Omaha around 9am (35% PoPs) as odds fade. The area should be dry by lunch. Again, it'll be a bit cloudier than typical, leaving highs ranging form the upper 70s to mid-80s. Monday night should be dry. .TUESDAY... Tuesday will be warmer with southerly flow picking up the pace ahead of an approaching cold front / shortwave. Expect highs entirely in the 80s. The cold front is tied to a system just north of the Canadian border leaving best forcing for ascent across Minnesota and points north. There will also be increased severe odds west of here tied to a shortwave. Our best chances of thunder is tied to the unstable airmass that develops as humidity streams north in the increasing heat. PWAT values will be above the 90th percentile (NAEFS). However, PoPs have been almost cut in half over the past 48 hours (70% -> 40%). Some heavy rain is possible, but ensemble guidance now has best odds of 1" or more west of this CWA. That's where the excessive rainfall outlook (ERO by WPC) is currently lit up. (Category 1 of 4). .WEDNESDAY... The last of Tuesday's showers should be wrapped up by sunrise Wednesday and it's the only day of the forecast currently forecast to be completely precip free. That seems unlikely to change with a sfc high passing through. .THE REST OF THE FORECAST... The upper pattern remains mostly unchanged through the work week before zonal flow sets up early next week. We'll remain in the path of a continued parade of waves rounding the southern ridge. PoPs return to the forecast late on Thursday (20%) and continue daily into next week. Friday's chances are best (30-60%). As a result, temps should slowly climb over the course of the work week's second half, with some 90s popping up on the map by Saturday. The first five days of September are highlighted by the CPC as having a 20-40% risk of extreme heat (90th+ percentile). The heat is expected to linger. The 6-10 day outlook leans hot, the 8-14 day outlook leans warmer than normal, as does the forecast for "weeks 3-4" (9/5-9/18). 2026 is on track to be the fifth warmest on record at Omaha and September looks to keep pace. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Cigs are generally lifting across the area this evening as showers slowly dissipate. Expect VFR conditions to prevail until a redevelopment of thunderstorms overnight. Have postponed the arrival time of those storms by a few hours.. now expected between 09Z (OFK) and wrapping up by 14Z Monday at LNK and OMA. May see some temporary MVFR cigs (FL030) or vis (2SM) with the heaviest showers or strongest storms, but confidence isn't high enough to add them to the TAF at this point. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...Nicolaisen  456 FXUS63 KDTX 240416 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1216 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy and cooler conditions arrive today with scattered showers into tonight. - Dry weather Monday into Tuesday with a warming trend. The next chance of showers and storms is possible late Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... Colder northwest flow is expected to support few/sct low/mid clouds through the early morning hours, but should remain predominately VFR ceilings with scattered showers expected to hold to the east of the terminal corridor. WNW winds hold around 5 knots before increasing late morning with gusts to around 25 knots and gradually decreasing towards the mid-late afternoon. Afternoon cumulus field will be spread across the terminals late morning into the afternoon and are forecast to hold aroudn 4-6kft. This evening winds will ease while holding out of the northwest along with a decreasing cloud trend. D21/DTW Convection... No thunderstorms expected through the TAF period. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Moderate for ceiling 5000 feet or today. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 DISCUSSION... Stacked low pressure system spinning just to our east over southern Ontario will lift northeast into Quebec overnight. We're dealing with cold advection on the backside of the low today with a strong mid level wave passing over this afternoon before the low finally departs. Atmosphere utilizing the low level moisture one last time this afternoon with a round of scattered showers before ridging pushes in and dries out the mid levels ending precip chances later this evening. SPC Mesoanalysis shows around 250 J/kg of CAPE mainly in the Thumb with a band of low level convergence stretching from MBS to PHN. This has been enough to generate some showers in the area. Weak mid level lapse rates and little instability should help minimize much of any lightning. Cool night in store as dewpoints have already fallen to around 50 and even the mid 40s across northern MI. Once the diurnal clouds mix out we should clear out for the most part. Questionable area will be the eastern Thumb where the cloud shield from the upper low continues to reach back toward the area. Clouds would help hold those temps up a few degrees if the clouds never release. Surface high builds in tonight for Monday and Tuesday while upper level heights also inch upwards. We'll keep the northwesterly flow Monday helping to hold highs temps on the cool side again in the mid 70s, but the ridge axis passes on Tuesday allowing for some warmer return flow to get us back up toward 80. Next trough affect the region mid week with a warm front pushing north of the area Tuesday evening tied to a low passing through the northern Great Lakes. Upper level waves start ejecting out of the trough over the region Wednesday leading to increasing chances of rainfall before the main trough axis and cold front sweep through early Thursday. MARINE... Post-frontal breezy northwest flow will persist through tomorrow as cooler air is ushered into the Great Lakes. Wind gusts ranging between 20 to 30 knots are expected during this window, along with some isolated gust potential to 35 knots through this evening, focused mainly across north-central and central Lake Huron. Given the lower confidence for any longer duration gale potential, will continue to preclude any issuance of gale products. Increasing coverage of rain showers will be likely tonight into tomorrow morning across Lake Huron, including a very low chance for waterspouts along any convergence axis. High pressure will then begin building into the Great Lakes Monday evening, centering over the region by Tuesday. This will diminish wind speeds tomorrow night, leading to light winds by Tuesday. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ049. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-441>443. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ422. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....AA DISCUSSION...DRK MARINE.......AM You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  556 FXUS66 KMTR 240419 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 919 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1237 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Near to slightly below normal temperatures persist in the marine layer this week - Warm and dry conditions continue above 1000 feet && .UPDATE... Issued at 836 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Stratus clouds have been reported along the coastal areas along with extensive high cloud cover across the region. Some expansion of the low clouds is possible through the night into the early hours of Monday morning, with a compressed marine layer combined with impaired radiational cooling due to the high clouds resulting in limited inland development tonight. The forecast remains on track. DialH && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1237 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 (This evening through Monday night) Not too much change in the forecast today as the Bay Area and Central Coast remain in between an upper level trough to the north and a ridge over the Desert Southwest. Ridging remains more dominant through this evening before the center of the ridge shifts eastward early Monday and troughing becomes more dominant over the region. High temperatures are forecast to peak in the upper 80s to low 90s across the interior with far interior Monterey County reaching the low 100s. Coastal areas are benefiting from a shallow (~1000 foot) marine layer that brought patchy stratus and drizzle to the coast and the SF Bay shoreline. This will keep temperatures cooler in coastal areas with highs peaking in the 60s to low 70s. Heading into Monday, the center of the upper level ridge will shift eastward with troughing becoming the dominant feature over us. The return of troughing will help the marine layer to (slightly) deepen and bring it from approximately 1000 ft to 1200-1500 ft. A slightly deeper marine layer will allow for a greater inland intrusion of stratus, but, stratus is not likely to be as widespread as it was last week. Temperatures are expected to drop by around 5 degrees for most interior locations. This will see a return of highs in the low to mid 80s while the higher elevations above the marine layer will stay comparatively warmer in the upper 80s to low 90s. Coastal areas will remain in the 60s to low 70s with additional periods of coastal drizzle likely during the early morning hours. The one questionable part of the forecast is if any thunderstorms will be able to develop across the North Bay Interior Mountains (particularly Napa County) early Monday morning. The Euro suggests that there will be sufficient moisture, instability, and lift as a weak shortwave trough moves in to California for orographically driven thunderstorms to develop there early Monday morning. NBM guidance gives around a 5% chance of thunderstorms developing. Any precipitation that falls would likely be virga/evaporate before reaching the surface given model Skew-T soundings showing a large dry layer between the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere. Confidence remains low overall in storm development, however, as other models (GFS, NAM, HRRR, RRFS) do not support storms developing tomorrow morning with the Euro being an outlier. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1237 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 (Tuesday through next Saturday) Troughing prevails through Tuesday with high temperatures remaining in the 60s to 70s along the coast, 80s across the interior, upper 80s to low 90s across the higher elevations, and upper 90s to low 100s across the interior Central Coast. Stratus is expected along the coast and portions of the SF Bay shoreline but continues to be limited in extent. The center of the upper level ridge shifts back westwards Wednesday to Thursday with high temperatures warming by around 5 degrees across the interior (largely returning temperatures to the upper 80s to 90s). Friday into the weekend, temperatures cool by a few degrees as ridging weakens and troughing deepens/strengthens over the Pacific. Troughing looks to continue into next week with a deep upper level low moving into the Pacific Northwest and Northern California. It will be worth keeping an eye on this incoming trough and the arrival of any potential tropical moisture towards the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC guidance shows three active areas of tropical interest offshore of Mexico with recently named TS Iselle in the vicnity as well. Guidance is starting to indicate some tropical moisture from these systems may be brought north as the trough arrives but it is unclear how far north this tropical moisture will go. Some models keep it more over Southern California while others bring it up into Monterey/San Benito counties. Models are already showing an increase in southerly swell associated with the uptick in tropical activity across the Eastern Pacific this weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 919 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR continues except for areas of coastal stratus and mist/fog /MVFR-IFR-LIFR/. Mid and high clouds, including wildfire smoke over the north Central Coast, are moving northeastward over the forecast area. Coastal stratus and mist/fog /MVFR-IFR-LIFR/ redevelop and move inland tonight and Monday morning. Conditions improve to MVFR-VFR along the coast late Monday morning and afternoon otherwise VFR Monday. Coastal stratus and mist/fog /MVFR-IFR-LIFR/ redevelop and move inland Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Vicinity of SFO...VFR prevails until stratus /MVFR/ develops 12z Monday. VFR returns 18z Monday. Stratus /IFR/ develops Monday evening and night. West wind 5 to 15 knots. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus and mist/fog /IFR-LIFR/ move inland mid to late evening to Monday morning. Conditions improve to MVFR-VFR late Monday morning and afternoon. Stratus and mist/fog /IFR-LIFR/ redevelop and move inland Monday night. West to northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 836 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Moderate northwest breezes gradually diminish this evening and become gentle by tomorrow. Occasional strong gusts are possible this evening, particularly across the Northern outer waters and near the Big Sur coast. Slight to moderate wind driven seas prevail into the work week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  650 FXUS65 KGJT 240422 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1022 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - This week will see daily afternoon thunderstorm chances, particularly along the higher terrain of western Colorado and eastern Utah. - Localized heavy rainfall continues to pose a threat to flash flooding over burn scars and susceptible terrain. - Daytime highs will run ~5 degrees above normal to start the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1014 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 THIS WEEK: The current synoptic level setup continues to be dominated by high pressure over the west. Beginning on Monday, moisture and PWAT anomalies begin to take a downturn compared to previous days. This will mean less widespread precipitation chances for the area. However, there remains enough moisture to cause daily afternoon thunderstorm chances over the higher terrain. Orographic lift will also be a contributing factor to help enhance these mountain storm chances. Additionally, morning cloud cover has the ability to dictate where storm activity materializes as daytime heating can affect the evolution of storms. As a result of all of this, localized heavy rainfall is possible from these storms which inherently poses a threat of flash flooding, especially around burn scars and susceptible terrain. By midweek, the high gradually shifts back towards the Desert Southwest. Because of the continuous presence of moisture, each afternoon's storm chances may look similar to each other. That is, isolated to scattered and mostly confined to the higher terrain. Synoptic forcing will be somewhat weak for this period, with the occasional shortwave interrupting the flow around the high, which will provide some additional lift. So long as the surface levels remain saturated in certain places, flash flooding will remain a concern, particularly for burn scars and susceptible terrain. Primary threats with these storms continue to be localized heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty outflows. Daytime highs will start off ~5 degrees above normal to start the week, with a slight uptick to ~5-10 degrees above normal by late week. By the weekend, temperatures begin to gradually decrease each day. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 529 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to be around for some terminals, but storm activity will gradually diminish after sunset. Winds around storms could get gusty as well as the additional wind threat from nearby outflows. Winds will resume terrain driven patterns overnight. Cloud cover will likely linger into the morning hours as we have been seeing the past few days. Shower and storm chances return Monday afternoon, particularly for the high terrain terminals. All that being said, VFR conditions will prevail. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BS AVIATION...TGJT  705 FXUS65 KSLC 240425 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1025 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .UPDATE...Showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, persisted across northern Utah through sunset. These storms have been waning in intensity over the past hour or so, and will continue to slowly decrease in coverage and intensity into the overnight hours. The most concentrated area of convection will continue to lift through the northeastern CWA through midnight with frequent lightning and periods of heavy rain. Moisture will remain in place Monday resulting in another round of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. && .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1151 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026... - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall across most of the region through early next week. - Thunderstorms will continue to impact the higher terrain and adjacent valleys through Wednesday. Another round of more widespread thunderstorms is increasing in likelihood for Friday into early next weekend. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1151 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026... Strong to severe convection will develop this afternoon and evening, with the highest probability of significant impacts (10% chance of wind gusts in excess of 70 mph) across northern Utah. A Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe thunderstorms has been issued for this area by the Storm Prediction Center. Looking at the set-up, this morning's 12Z sounding at KSLC already showed almost 1000 J/kg MUCAPE but with a fairly stout amount of convective inhibition. Latest guidance suggests this effective cap will erode by 20-21Z, allowing for robust convective development across northern Utah. Mean HREF SBCAPE indicates a broad area of values near to above around 1000-1500 J/kg across northern Utah coincident with deep layer shear around 25-30 kts. Weak surface convergence associated with a shortwave trough passing to the north may help to organize convection into a quasi-linear feature, though per typical in terrain, this is difficult to discern in model fields. The latest few HRRR runs do show a signature of an organized line of very strong outflow shifting across the west desert and into the Wasatch Front between 21Z and 01Z and then continuing to be quite strong into the Uinta County, WY area by 02-03Z. Peak wind gusts in these runs have increased to 55kts, but given the very steep lapse rates, relatively high instability for the Great Basin, modest deep layer shear and low LCLs, expect storms to be able to attain cold pool/shear balance. Saturday's convective outflow peak was 80 mph near Grassey on I-80...cant rule out a repeat somewhere along this area of outflow winds this afternoon and evening. For areas south of I-70, the heavy rain threat continues. While HREF peak 1 hour rates have decreased over Saturday's values, net available moisture has only decreased subtly. Expect any stronger thunderstorms, especially those tied to terrain features and/or training, to be capable of rainfall rates in excess of 0.50 inches per hour. Will need to monitor for flash flood threat across much of this area...especially for slot canyons, normally dry washes and recent burn scars. With the previously mentioned upper level trough passing to the east Monday, the best chance for strong outflow winds will shift to mainly the Utah/Idaho border region. Convection will become increasingly tied to the higher terrain and adjacent valleys through Wednesday...with only isolated convection expected Thursday as high pressure brings a drying trend to most locations. However...with the tropical eastern Pacific remaining quite active, at least a portion of ensemble members indicate the next trough approaching the Pacific Northwest will assist in shifting remnant tropical moisture into the Great Basin by Friday. This is something to watch moving forward. && .AVIATION... KSLC...Showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist into the overnight hours in the vicinity of KSLC, however the chance for lightning at the terminal will diminish below 10% after 06Z. Brief MVFR VIS can be expected should a heavier shower or thunderstorm move over the terminal. Winds will continue to be outflow driven through at least 06Z, varying in direction and speed, but will eventually become southeasterly/drainage by 09Z. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected around the general area Monday. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Showers and thunderstorms will continue across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming into the overnight hours, gradually decreasing in coverage and intensity with time. Frequent lightning, gusty outflow winds to 30 kts, and periods of MVFR VIS within heavier rain will all be possible. VFR conditions will prevail across southern Utah. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area Monday afternoon and evening potentially impacting all terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER, Issued 1225 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026... High pressure will remain across the Four-Corners region through the next week. As an upper level low crosses southern Canada into the northern Intermountain Region through Monday, sufficient forcing for thunderstorms will continue. As a result, strong to severe thunderstorms will impact much of northern Utah this afternoon and evening. The most significant threat will be strong outflow winds in excess of 60 mph, mainly north of I-70. For locations south of I-70, strong outflow winds up to 50 mph and very heavy rain will be the primary impacts from thunderstorms. Additional strong thunderstorms will develop Monday afternoon and evening, but the threat of outflows in excess of 50 mph will remain closer to the Utah/Idaho border. As high pressure builds north and east in the wake of the upper level low Tuesday, thunderstorms will become more confined to the higher terrain and adjacent valleys through Thursday. A net drying trend will continue, with most valleys see humidities fall to critical levels by midweek. Another round of thunderstorms may impact more of the state as early as Friday as another low pressure area impacts the Pacific Northwest and pulls moisture from the tropical Pacific northeastward into the Great Basin. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC... AVIATION... FIRE WEATHER... For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  786 FXUS63 KDDC 240427 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1127 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread accumulating rainfall possible on Tuesday. There is a 50 to 60% chance that rainfall totals Tuesday night will be greater than 0.25 inches west of highway 283. - There will be a slight chance for severe thunderstorms late Tuesday with the main hazard being large hail and strong damaging wind gusts. - Hot conditions with highs near 100 degrees in some areas on Monday and Tuesday will give way to cooler temperatures mid week. Highs on Wednesday will be mainly in the lower 90s but there is a 60-75% chance for highs to be less than 90 degrees along the I-70 corridor and around the Garden City area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Earlier this morning, an area of weakening convection was moving across north central Kansas as an upper level disturbance embedded in a 10-15 knot west/northwest flow crosses western Kansas. A 500mb high remains in place across the southwest United States while an upper level trough was located over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface a surface boundary extended from eastern Colorado to the Panhandle of Texas. Models today remain in good agreement and have run to run consistency. These models show minimal movement of the surface boundary over the next 36 hours as the next subtle upper level trough rotates around the 500mb high and approaches western Kansas late today. As this upper level system moves out into the west central high plains late today there will be a chance for scattered afternoon thunderstorms over eastern Colorado and along the surface boundary which will be located near the Oklahoma Panhandle border which, if they develop, will move southeast. A few of the stronger storms early tonight may be capable of producing wind gusts of 50 to near 60 mph. As for the possible thunderstorms that may develop over eastern Colorado late today...they weaken and cross extreme southwest Kansas later tonight. For the first few days of this upcoming work week the 500mb high over the southwest United states will move very slowly westward which will result in placing southwest Kansas on the northeast edge of the upper highs and in a northwest flow regime. Based on this southwest Kansas can look forward to multiple opportunities for scattered thunderstorms as additional upper waves rotate out of the Rockies and into the Plains. As for the storms on Monday...conditions are expected to be similar to those anticipated later tonight as the next upper level trough approaches from the west. Isolated wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph will be the main hazard before sunset across west of highway 83. A better chance for thunderstorms is expected late Tuesday as the next upper level trough moves across the Western High Plains. Latest ensembles continue to show strong consensus on timing and track of this next upper wave. This upper wave will be associated with the right entrance region of an upper level jet as it crosses the Northern Plains. Ahead of this Tuesday upper wave the ensembles indicate now a 50-60% probability of MUCAPE >500j/kg and bulk shear >30 knots over western Kansas along with southeasterly upslope flow of near 70 degree dewpoints. Along with the slight chance for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday there will also be a chance for widespread beneficial rainfall to be possible for some areas of southwest Kansas from this Tuesday night event based on the high PWATS the ensembles forecast across southwest Kansas as storms develop and moves southeast along a moist instability axis. Current PWAT values are forecast to be near 1.5 inches (roughly 80% of normal). In addition to the high PWATS the latest NBM guidance hasa 50 to 60% chance that rainfall totals Tuesday night will be greater than 0.25 inches west of highway 283. This upper level trough crossing western Kansas Tuesday night will not only bring a +60% chance for thunderstorms to southwest Kansas Tuesday night but it will also allow a cold front to move into southwest Kansas on Wednesday. This cold front will briefly bring an end to the hot (near 100 degree) temperatures across southwest Kansas Monday and Tuesday. Highs mid week will be more seasonal with highs mainly in the lower 90s. Latest NBM even has a 60-75% chance for highs to be less than 90 degrees along the I-70 corridor and around the Garden City area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR flight category with surface winds in general 15 kts or less for all terminals during the time period. A band of spotty showers and storms will be around GCK, LBL, and DDC through 08Z however probabilities should stay under 30% and only a TEMPO is included for LBL at this time from 06-07Z due to the storms being forecast to be closer to this terminal. Another round of storms is expected to come out of Colorado late tonight and could be approaching GKC and LBL around 06Z Tuesday. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Burgert AVIATION...Tatro  809 FXUS63 KDDC 240428 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1128 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures around 100 degrees to start the workweek - Best opportunity for rain will be Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with 40-50% probability of locations along and west of highway 283 receiving 0.25 inch or more of rainfall - Storms Tuesday night have a slight risk of severe weather from SPC with wind as the greatest threat - Cooling trend for midweek followed by the return of 100 degree temperatures this weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 05Z synopsis shows spotty showers and storms located from the Colorado border to near Liberal as a 500-700 mb shortwave is moving into western Kansas due to northwest flow aloft. Short term models have the upper level wave, cloud cover, and any rain exiting the region by mid morning. Winds throughout the day should be light with a looser pressure gradient across western Kansas. By late afternoon hotter air from the southwest should arrive into far western Kansas and with ample sunshine NBM probabilities of hitting 100 degrees are at 40% for areas along and south of highway 160. With continued northwest flow in the mid levels another 500-700 mb shortwave will develop in the front range in the late afternoon triggering convection. With the upper level high breaking down to the southwest this should allow the convection to reach into western Kansas after sunset and the storms will decay as they move eastward through the night. Tuesday the day should start off with residual cloud cover in the morning as the shortwave moves onto the east and more easterly surface winds. This will keep temperatures at bay through the morning but by afternoon with the return of sunshine and southerly winds we should see the return of mid 90s. By mid to late afternoon short term models have a stout mid level shortwave coming from southern Nebraska into north central Kansas. We could see storm development as early as 4 pm in our eastern zones. Another front range shortwave should trigger a line of convection in eastern Colorado and move into western Kansas during the overnight hours. POP has increased with the newest model guidance to 50-80%. NBM probabilities continue to show a 40-50% chance of at least 0.25 inch of precipitation west of highway 283 suggesting this round of storms will have better lift and more moisture to work with. MUCAPE values from various models Wednesday morning are in the 2000-3000 range and skew t soundings suggest elevated convection with not much bulk shear which would lead to mainly a wind threat and localized heavier rainfall with the stronger storms. The persistent weather pattern continues into Wednesday night as medium range models show another late night shortwave passing through Kansas giving much of western Kansas another decent shot of rain with POPs in the 40-50% range. The repeated opportunities for rain along with the upper high departing slightly westward should allow highs to be slightly cooler mid to late week with highs in the lower 90s. Long term ensembles have the upper high moving back to the east during the weekend allowing a higher probability of hotter weather to return. NBM probabilities of 100 degree highs are back into the 40-90% range for much of western Kansas for Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR flight category with surface winds in general 15 kts or less for all terminals during the time period. A band of spotty showers and storms will be around GCK, LBL, and DDC through 08Z however probabilities should stay under 30% and only a TEMPO is included for LBL at this time from 06-07Zdue to the storms being forecast to be closer to this terminal. Another round of storms is expected to come out of Colorado late tonight and could be approaching GKC and LBL around 06Z Tuesday. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tatro AVIATION...Tatro  874 FXUS65 KRIW 240430 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1030 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening. Locally heavy rain, small hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be the main threats. - A separate area of storms looks to push in from northern UT between 8PM and 10PM and with a 20-30% chance of being strong to severe. Damaging winds up to 60 mph, lightning and locally heavy rain will be possible as these storms move over southwestern and southern portions of the state through midnight. - Monsoonal moisture will linger much of the week, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. Temperatures will be closer to seasonable for this time of year nearing the end of August. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Much more ample sunshine across the CWA for the noon update as compared to yesterday. As such, temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer this afternoon than Saturday afternoon as well. With better mixing, there will be a stronger breeze to go along with it as well gusting up to 25-30 mph at times outside of any storm activity and outflow winds. Nothing on radar currently but HiRes data is still pinpointing development by 2-3PM off leeside of the Absarokas and pushing in from the south off the Uintas for Sweetwater County. Much of this activity will be isolated in nature compared to yesterday's showers but expect lightning and a brief outflow over 40 mph with its eastward progression through the evening. With this, PoPs have been adjusted and especially after the CRON wiped out the night shift's work to account for this heading into the evening hours. This is where it will get a bit more interesting at least for Wyoming standards. A line of storm activity looks to form from southern Montana and across eastern Idaho by 6-7PM before pushing east into western Wyoming shortly thereafter along and ahead of the cold front. This will track through the CWA by Monday morning. SPC continues with the Marginal Severe Risk, with an introduced Slight to the southwest portions of the state to include hatched wind. This looks to be overdone, even though damaging winds are possible up to 60 mph from the outflows ahead of the front. The instability with DCAPE values less than 500 J/kg just don't look too impressive as it nears radiational cooling towards sunset. There might be an hour or so before darkness, but the FROPA will be later further south for the CWA with its positive tilt and progressive eastward push. Stronger winds than that don't look great in the least but something to keep an eye on between 6-10PM west of the Divide. Beyond that as it makes its way to the east after midnight, the juice of the storms will be lost with mainly shower activity in its wake. The cold front will push the warmer moist air south and southeast. Beyond that, status quo, as the monsoonal pattern continues but to a bit lesser extent. Temperatures behind this aforementioned cold front will bring afternoon highs closer to seasonable for this time of year ending the month of August with 80s east of the Divide even into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 It was a typical monsoon day yesterday, with some areas, mainly in southwest and in Johnson and Natrona Counties getting a LOT of rain, causing some local flooding. Other areas saw nothing. And we continue to have some showers and embedded thunder around late tonight, although intensity is significantly less. And these will continue through the night, gradually becoming weaker and less numerous. We will have another round of showers and storms today. There are some differences. For one, precipitable water values are less today by about 20 percent in most locations. This should bring less coverage and somewhat lesser rainfall rates. The other difference is that there will be more steering flow today, generally about 10 to 15 knots at 700 millibars and 25 to 35 knots at 500 millibars. So storms should have more movement. This should decrease the chance of flooding somewhat. We still have an excessive rainfall outlook across most ares west of the Divide though, so the threat is still there. There is also the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. Most of the area is under a Marginal risk of severe weather today. There could be some small hail, but this not the main risk. The main risk looks to be strong wind gusts. Roughly north and west of a Buffalo to Riverton to Lyman line has a Conditional 1 outlook for wind, or possible convective wind gusts to 75 mph. Soundings do show some inverted-V profiles, especially across northwestern Wyoming where the surface will be drier, with low and mid level lapse rates close to 9 C/km. This could lead to some strong downburst winds later today. Again, the best chance would be across the northwest but most areas will have a chance. And, like previous nights, most convection should end after sunset but a few showers and storms will likely linger through the night. As for temperatures, they should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with more sunshine expected. The rest of the week looks like more of the same as the annoying monsoonal moisture will hang around the area through at least Thursday and possibly into Friday as well. The models continue to have different ideas on which day will be more active with no real well defined shortwaves with changes from day to day. Precipitable water generally average about 125 to 150 percent of normal through the period though. So, at this point we went with a generic solution of mainly diurnal showers and storms each afternoon. Temperatures should remain fairly similar through the period, not very hot but averaging around 4 to 8 degrees above normal on average, with the possibility of a cooler day if there is more cloud cover than expected. Drier air may then work in for next weekend and bring a return to drier weather but uncertainty remains high on the exact timing. So, all in all, it continues to look like more of the same as the summer of the monsoon lives on in western and central Wyoming. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1028 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Showers and thunderstorms have weakened and will continue to dissipate across much of the area to start of the period. VFR conditions are expected to prevail over nearly all terminals through the period. Winds remain light through much of the overnight into the morning hours Monday. Winds begin to increase to 10-15 knots ahead of the next round of convection during the early afternoon hours on Monday. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to begin developing Monday afternoon and into the evening. All terminals look to have chances for a shower or storm mainly from 19Z Monday to 04Z Tuesday. The main concerns with any of the stronger storms will be strong gusty outflow winds of 30 to 40 knots, frequent lightning, and brief periods of heavy rain. MVFR to IFR conditions cannot be ruled out especially if any storms move directly overhead a terminal. Showers and thunderstorms should come to a gradual end by 03-04Z Tuesday. However, a few lingering showers cannot be ruled out to the end of the TAF period but at this time there still remains low confidence in the location and timing for these showers. Mountains may be obscured at times to start the TAF period but conditions should improve during the day Monday. Obscuration is likely to return in association with developing showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Lowe DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Dziewaltowski  018 FXUS63 KUNR 240434 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1034 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal to Slight (Level 1-2 out of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms this evening. - Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon/evening. - Upper ridge will dominate the weather with subtle disturbances through next week with temperatures about 4-8F above normal && .DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Saturday) Issued at 1043 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 16z surface analysis had frontal boundary from eastern MT to eastern CO and a trough from eastern CO into northeastern NE. Water vapour loop had upper ridge over the southwest CONUS with a shortwave over north-central WY. Overnight MCS about to fully exit the CWA with leftover low stratus burning off per 0.5km 1-minute visible imagery. Main concern this forecast will be effect of north-central WY shortwave. This afternoon/tonight, shortwave moves into the Dakotas with slight increase in mid-level flow resulting in 30-45kt effective bulk shear later this afternoon. Td/s in the 60s will be sustained per breezy southeast winds ahead of frontal boundary. Band of 2-3KJ/kg MLCAPE forecast this afternoon over far western SD with minimum cap. Convective initiation (CI) will likely be over the Black Hills around 20z with supercells moving south/southeast at 10-20kts per Bunkers storm motion prognostications. Another area of strong/severe CI may develop over northwestern SD along the frontal boundary/trough interaction late this afternoon. CAMs handle this scenario in different fashion with some emphasizing MLCIN east of the Black Hills with some members not so much. Other strong/isolated severe convection may occur over the rest of the CWA. Sufficient buoyancy/bulk shear for marginal/slight (1-2 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms. Large hail/damaging wind the main threats with CIG1 magnitudes over western SD. Temperatures will be a bit below guidance this afternoon per low level moisture/dissipating stratus. Monday, diurnally driven convection possible in the afternoon/evening, but the upper support less certain compared to today. Temperatures will be near guidance. The rest of the forecast will be dominated by the upper ridge over the southwest CONUS. Ridge amplification into the northern Plains for the second half of the week suggests somewhat quieter and drier weather. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night) Issued At 1032 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are expecting through tonight. Tomorrow has more storm chances in the evening, primarily over the Black Hills and east. A PROB30 has been retained in the KRAP forecast to reflect this. Prior to any storms, winds across the area may get gusty, with gusts up to 20kts expected. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Helgeson AVIATION...Schweigert  004 FXUS64 KEPZ 240433 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1033 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 225 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Above normal temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas through the week ahead. Lowland highs will range upper 90s to 105, which will approach daily records. - Very limited thunderstorm chances in the mountains for today and Monday. Dry elsewhere. - Chances for thunderstorms will improve Thursday into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Not much has changed in the forecast. Upper level high pressure will be the driving force behind our weather through at least the coming weekend. The upper level ridge will begin to drift into southern New Mexico on Monday through Wednesday. That will be when we will see our hottest temperatures of the week. A heat advisory is out for the lower Rio Grande Valley into Hudspeth County for Monday afternoon and evening. On Tuesday the upper level ridge will be directly over southern New Mexico, so we will likely have to extended and possible expand the advisory. The ridge drifts only a little to the west of Wednesday, so we may still need another round of heat advisories for Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday and Friday, the upper level ridge will be centered to our west in eastern Arizona. This will allow a little moisture to slip into the region from the east. The circulation around the upper level ridge may bring a vort max across the area so most of the area will have at least a slight chance for rain on Thursday. High temperatures both days will drop a few degrees, but most of the lowlands will continue to see triple digit heat. For the weekend, the upper level ridge will recenter itself over central New Mexico, that ridge position will again limit our rain chances which will mainly be confined to area mountains. Triple digit lowland heat looks to continue next weekend. No relief from this late summer heat as the extended models continue to show the upper level ridge anchored over the desert southwest through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Upper level high pressure will continue to keep our ceilings unlimited tonight and through the day on Monday. OUr winds tonight will be light and then by Monday afternoon we will see light south or southeast winds. KDMN may have a few hours of low end gusty winds. The light winds will continue into Monday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 225 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Hot and dry conditions will persist through the weekend, with very low chances for a pop-up shower or thunderstorm in the Gila and Sacramentos for the remainder of the afternoon and Monday afternoon. Isolated dry lightning strikes are possible. Minimum RH values will drop just below 10 percent in the lowlands the next few afternoons, while the forested high elevations hold onto 15 to 25%. Winds will remain light. An uptick in thunderstorms, mainly in the higher terrain, is expected Wednesday, and another tick higher Thursday, as the upper ridge drifts west of the area again, opening us up to weak disturbances aloft dropping in from the north. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 74 102 76 104 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 68 99 68 102 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 68 101 69 103 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 72 100 73 102 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 55 78 56 78 / 0 0 0 10 Truth or Consequences 71 99 72 101 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 64 94 65 96 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 69 102 70 104 /0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 70 100 70 102 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 75 102 76 105 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 70 102 71 104 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 74 106 75 108 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 70 96 70 98 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 72 102 73 105 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 71 101 72 103 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 75 103 76 105 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 70 101 71 103 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 70 104 71 106 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 72 102 74 104 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 68 100 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 60 91 61 91 / 0 0 0 10 Mescalero 58 89 59 90 / 0 0 0 10 Timberon 57 87 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 62 91 63 92 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 69 99 70 100 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 68 100 69 102 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 59 92 59 93 / 0 0 0 10 Hurley 65 97 66 99 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 67 101 68 103 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 64 97 65 99 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 67 96 68 98 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 70 101 71 103 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 69 100 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 68 99 69 101 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 65 94 67 97 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...15-Brice  117 FXUS63 KPAH 240439 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1139 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 20-40% chance of patchy fog early Monday morning, especially along and northwest of the Ohio River. - Elevated isolated showers and storms may clip Carter and Ripley county Monday morning with a 30% chance of rainfall between one to two tenths of an inch. - Temperatures will quickly return to more seasonable by Wednesday with an increase in humidity levels along with 20-30% chance of daily showers and storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A broad H5 trough with northwesterly flow is centered over the Ohio Valley this afternoon with sfc high pressure in control. Drier air above 800 mb has allowed for dewpoints to mix down into the upper 50s in some spots with temperatures running about 5 degrees below normal. Mostly clear skies and calm winds tonight will allow for radiational cooling. Leaned below NBM for low temperatures Monday morning that range from the mid 50s to low 60s. Patchy fog will be possible again with the probabilistic NBM/LAMP guidance supporting a 20-40% chance. The other concern will be the potential for a elevated complex of storms to clip Carter and Ripley county as a H5 shortwave approaches. Limited NBM PoPs to a 30% chance for a tenth or two inch of rainfall as most of the 12z CAMs have shifted more south towards the better instability. Temperatures quickly trend more seasonable by Wednesday as a warm front lifts north with humidity levels on the rise for the latter half of the week. The FA will remain sandwiched between an upper level ridge and trough that will send additional disturbances our way beginning Wednesday. Daily rain chances through Thursday only range from 20-30% with even lower chances heading into next weekend as another area of sfc high pressure builds in. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Looking at crossover temperature potential, MVN looks to have the greatest chance of reaching their crossover temp tonight and seeing fog formation (and based on how they saw fog last night). PAH may see some patchy fog as well but possibly not as great of a drop in vsby as MVN. High clouds streaming over the southwest portions of the area will likely inhibit fog formation at CGI tonight. EVV and OWB mixed fairly deep today and their crossover temps are more out of reach even with clear skies and calm winds. High clouds resume tomorrow across the area with light winds shifting to the northeast by sunset. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...HICKFORD  188 FXUS65 KPIH 240441 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1041 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight Risk Today (60–80 mph Severe Gusts): The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) maintains a Slight Risk across the southeast corner of the region—including the South Hills, lower Snake Plain, and southeast highlands toward Bear Lake. Steep lapse rates and high moisture will support severe downburst winds of 60 to 80 mph and localized small hail through late evening. - Repeat Threat Tomorrow: Near-identical synoptic conditions on Monday will keep scattered thunderstorm potential elevated across the same southeastern footprint, with localized damaging gusts remaining the primary hazard. - Mid-Week Ridge & Late-Week Wind Surge: High pressure rebuilds Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing above-normal temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s alongside isolated afternoon storms. A passing northern shortwave on Thursday and Friday will increase regional winds and moderate weekend temperatures back toward seasonal averages in the low-to-mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 An active afternoon and evening are expected across eastern Idaho as an unusually moist and unstable air mass remains entrenched across the southeastern portion of the forecast area. Surface temperatures climbing into the 80s paired with surface dewpoints in the mid-50s are providing sufficient thermodynamic instability for robust convective development. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) maintains a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across the southeast corner, encompassing the South Hills, the lower Snake Plain, and the southeastern highlands around Bear Lake. Soundings reveal steep low-to-mid level lapse rates, creating an environment characterized by strong evaporative cooling within convective cores. Stronger thunderstorm cores and organized outflows will be capable of generating scattered severe wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph within the Slight Risk zone, with a lower but non-negligible wind threat extending across the rest of eastern Idaho. Small hail will also be possible within the strongest cores. High- resolution convective-allowing models (CAMs) show storm activity persisting through late evening before tapering off around midnight. Synoptically, Monday presents a near-identical setup. High- resolution model guidance targets the same general footprint across the South Hills, Snake Plain, and southeastern highlands for afternoon shower and thunderstorm coverage. SPC currently carries a Marginal Risk for severe gusts across the area. However, if daytime destabilization matches today's parameters, localized severe downburst wind gusts will once again be the primary operational threat. As the upper-level trough assisting current convective activity exits into Western Canada, high-pressure ridging will attempt to rebuild over the Great Basin Tuesday through mid-week. Residual low-level moisture trapped beneath the ridge axis will maintain low-end daily shower and thunderstorm chances. Afternoon maximum temperatures will run a few degrees above seasonal climatological norms, reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s across lower-elevation valleys. Heading into the late-week period, a shortwave trough tracking into Washington and British Columbia on Thursday will tighten regional pressure gradients, increasing wind speeds across eastern Idaho on Thursday and Friday. This northern feature will partially suppress the Great Basin ridge Friday into the weekend, potentially lowering valley temperatures back toward seasonal benchmarks in the low-to-mid 80s. However, considerable spread remains among model ensemble guidance regarding the exact magnitude of this weekend cooling trend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1041 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Expect virga showers to remain south of TAF sites overnight. Most likely looking at convection once again Monday afternoon with 30% chance of storms at TAF locations. Gusty winds and brief heavy downpours reducing visibilities are main impacts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 156 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Another day with monsoon moisture across Idaho means another day with showers and thunderstorms. We will see isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains (Zone 476) and along the Montana border for Zone 411. There is a 10-40% chance for gusts over 35 mph. There is a better chance south of the Snake River across Zones 427 and 413, although coverage remains borderline for scattered and Red Flag Warning thresholds. Down south is also where we expect for a slightly higher chance for wetting rainfall, but it is still only 15-30%. There is also a 50-90% chance for gusts over 35 mph. Any thunderstorms today have the potential for gusts over 60 mph, similar to yesterday, but the chance for those types of gusts is highest down south. While there is no strong indication outflow boundaries or storms are expected across Zones 410 and 425, we will be watching for that as well. Outside of storms and outflow potential, gusty winds will develop across the central mountains(422/475/476), the Arco Desert and Upper Snake Plain (410) and along the Montana border (411). Gusts in the 25-40 mph range are expected. There will be pockets of lower humidity (around or below 15%), but the potential looks too sporadic for widespread critical conditions and Red Flag Warnings. Monsoon moisture spreads back north across eastern Idaho tonight and tomorrow. We will be borderline again across Zones 413 and 427 tomorrow for scattered coverage. We expect isolated storms across a good chunk of eastern Idaho, outside of Zone 475. The chance of wetting rain is similar to today (15-30%) but the footprint is a bit bigger overall, but still look for a mix of wet and dry storms. There is a less than 50% chance for gusts over 35 mph closer to the Montana border, but 70- 90% across the rest of eastern Idaho where storms develop, with a distinct possibility again for gusts over 60 mph with stronger storms and outflow boundaries. The risk of showers and storms continues until the end of the week. We may see another low pass to our north, which would suppress deeper moisture to south of the Snake Plain over the weekend. Right now, there is quite a range on what might have with the storm track, and the Blend of Models does include a few showers and storms across a good portion of eastern Idaho especially on Saturday. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McKaughan AVIATION...13 FIRE WEATHER...Keyes  278 FXUS63 KOAX 240444 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1144 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight into Monday morning. Severe weather is not expected. - Clouds and rain chances will keep temperatures cooler Monday, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. - Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances continue into the work week, with high temperatures generally in the low to mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The upper pattern revealed by water vapor imagery is dominated by the persistent ridge centered over west Texas and a deep cut- off low spinning cyclonically over the Great Lakes. Betwixt the two, Iowa and Nebraska are under northwest flow aloft. Radar returns this evening have been slowly tapering as they've drifted southeast into a drier and more stable airmass. Temps and dewpoints are in the 60s as winds have become light and variable. It's a little muggy but pleasant outside. This would be a good set-up for fog, but for the increasing clouds expected overnight. Any development should be patchy at best. More showers and storms are expected to develop soon as the nocturnal jet gets act together. The jet will reach farther north than normal, likely initiating the storms in South Dakota. These storms are progged to push south-southeast overnight, passing through the Yankton/Sioux City area around 5am (60% PoPs), and through Omaha around 9am (35% PoPs) as odds fade. The area should be dry by lunch. Again, it'll be a bit cloudier than typical, leaving highs ranging form the upper 70s to mid-80s. Monday night should be dry. .TUESDAY... Tuesday will be warmer with southerly flow picking up the pace ahead of an approaching cold front / shortwave. Expect highs entirely in the 80s. The cold front is tied to a system just north of the Canadian border leaving best forcing for ascent across Minnesota and points north. There will also be increased severe odds west of here tied to a shortwave. Our best chances of thunder is tied to the unstable airmass that develops as humidity streams north in the increasing heat. PWAT values will be above the 90th percentile (NAEFS). However, PoPs have been almost cut in half over the past 48 hours (70% -> 40%). Some heavy rain is possible, but ensemble guidance now has best odds of 1" or more west of this CWA. That's where the excessive rainfall outlook (ERO by WPC) is currently lit up. (Category 1 of 4). .WEDNESDAY... The last of Tuesday's showers should be wrapped up by sunrise Wednesday and it's the only day of the forecast currently forecast to be completely precip free. That seems unlikely to change with a sfc high passing through. .THE REST OF THE FORECAST... The upper pattern remains mostly unchanged through the work week before zonal flow sets up early next week. We'll remain in the path of a continued parade of waves rounding the southern ridge. PoPs return to the forecast late on Thursday (20%) and continue daily into next week. Friday's chances are best (30-60%). As a result, temps should slowly climb over the course of the work week's second half, with some 90s popping up on the map by Saturday. The first five days of September are highlighted by the CPC as having a 20-40% risk of extreme heat (90th+ percentile). The heat is expected to linger. The 6-10 day outlook leans hot, the 8-14 day outlook leans warmer than normal, as does the forecast for "weeks 3-4" (9/5-9/18). 2026 is on track to be the fifth warmest on record at Omaha and September looks to keep pace. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Ceilings decrease over the next few hours as thunderstorms in South Dakota move southeast into the region. Storms may start impacting KOFK around 09Z, and gradually move further southeast, impacting KLNK and KOMA after 12Z. Could have some visibility reductions as storms move through the area. Ceilings improve at KOFK after 12Z and at KLNK and KOMA after 15Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...ANW  281 FXUS66 KPQR 240444 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 944 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Updated Aviation Discussion .SYNOPSIS...Upper level ridging and low-level offshore flow develops Monday, continuing into Tuesday, bringing warmer and sunnier conditions with high temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s across the interior lowlands, warmest on Monday. Wildfire smoke will also begin to increase over the Columbia River Gorge, Upper Hood River Valley, and the greater Portland/Vancouver metro area Monday morning and then linger through Tuesday; however smoke is not expected to be dense for most locations. Onshore flow arrives by Wednesday and continues thereafter, which will clear any lingering smoke out of the area and bring relatively cooler temperatures through the end of the week and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Tonight through Saturday Night...Water vapor satellite imagery reveals the upper level shortwave trough lifting across NE Washington into Canada this afternoon. Heights aloft will continue to increase through tonight allowing for clearing skies. As a ridge of high pressure builds aloft over the region, a surface thermal trough develops along the coast extending into western WA early Monday morning. This will allow for light offshore flow to develops, especially over the western slopes of the Cascades with east winds increasing through the Columbia River Gorge later Monday morning. Winds are not expected to be very strong, but gusts up to 25-30 mph will certainly be possible through the western gorge. Temperatures at 850 mb are also expected to rapidly rise to around 20C by Monday evening. Downsloping winds and afternoon mixing will therefore allow for surface temperatures to warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s across much of the inland lowlands, as well as through Cascade valleys, while temperatures at the coast will likely warm into the 70s before winds shift as sea-breezes occur early in the afternoon. This offshore flow will also cause wildfire smoke to begin to filter back down into the valleys, including into the Portland/Vancouver Metro area, Columbia River Gorge and Upper Hood River Valley. However, smoke is not expected to be dense for most locations. By Monday evening, the surface thermal trough is expected to shift east into the Willamette Valley, and potentially to the Cascade crest, allowing for onshore flow to return across much of the area. Lingering low pressure in the valley will likely allow for very light offshore flow to return over the Cascade foothills Monday night into early Tuesday. This will likely maintain elevated overnight temperatures in the lower to mid-60s where the easterly winds persist. A moderate risk of heat related illnesses will therefore exist Monday into Tuesday. Wildfire smoke is also likely to linger into Tuesday as well for northern portions of the forecast area. Early Tuesday, a shortwave trough will lift just offshore, skirting the coast, as a deeper upper level low in the Gulf of Alaska drops south. This should cause a southerly wind reversal to occur along the Oregon coast and into the Willamette Valley. Heights aloft still remain high with the axis of the upper level ridge over the Intermountain West, but 850 mb temps cool to around 16-17C. Still expecting Tuesday temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s (about 4-8 degrees above normal). By Tuesday evening, surface high pressure building along the coast will bring a strong marine push of westerly winds. Any lingering wildfire smoke should shift back east of the Cascades by Wednesday. Models and their ensembles are showing fairly good agreement that the upper level trough over the NE Pacific gradually pushes east over the Pacific NW Wednesday through Thursday, with troughing likely persisting over the region through the end of the week and into the weekend. There is high confidence that temperatures trend cooler to near or slightly below average. Confidence is low regarding precipitation, if any will occur later this week. But, if any rain does fall, it would most likely be very light. Best chances would be drizzle along the coast with a weak frontal passage Thursday morning; and again on Saturday, but PoP remains around 15% or less. /DH && .AVIATION...06Z TAFs...Generally VFR conditions under mostly clear skies across the airspace through around 15Z Monday. Coastal locations could see some MVFR to LIFR conditions developing along the coast from 08Z-18Z Monday, with higher probabilities of IFR/LIFR conditions impacting KONP. Could also see some MVFR conditions developing between KSLE and KEUG through the same time, but there is only a 10-25% chance of this occurring. Any lowered flight conditions should develop into VFR around 16Z-18Z Monday. North/northeast winds through the TAF period. Expect breezy winds gusting around of 20 kt at KONP. Around 18-20Z Monday, easterly winds around 8-11 kt are expected to develop at KTTD and KPDX as offshore winds develop through the Columbia River Gorge. The north/northeast winds will also push some wildfire smoke/haze into the Willamette Valley. Smoke/haze will have the potential reduce vertical and slantwise visibilities at times. In addition, temperatures are expected to warm into the lower 90s Monday afternoon at the inland TAF sites, so be aware of high density altitude which may reduce aircraft performance. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Generally VFR flight conditions through the TAF period. North/northeast winds through the TAF period with more easterly winds developing around 18-20Z Monday. Expect 8-11 kt to develop near and east of the terminal as easterly winds develop through the Columbia River Gorge. Smoke/haze will have the potential reduce vertical and slantwise visibilities at times. In addition, temperatures are expected to warm into the lower 90s Monday afternoon at the inland TAF sites, so be aware of high density altitude which may reduce aircraft performance. /42 && .MARINE...Northerly winds will gradually increase Sunday afternoon and evening as high pressure strengthens over the northeast Pacific. Gusty winds will develop over the waters, increasing from south to north from Florence to Cape Shoalwater. Wind gusts up to 25 kt are expected to develop Sunday evening over the southern and central waters, and over the northern waters Sunday night. These wind speeds will then persist through Monday afternoon/early evening before decreasing Monday night. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect from 5 PM Sunday to 5 PM Monday for the coastal waters from Florence north to Cape Falcon and from 11 PM Sunday to 8 PM Monday for the coastal waters north of Cape Falcon to Cape Shoalwater. Gusty north winds up to 25 kt are also expected for the Columbia River Bar starting at 8 AM Monday, which also has a Small Craft Advisory in effect. A southerly wind reversal arrives early Tuesday morning over the inner waters with gusts up to 15-20 kt expected by Tuesday afternoon. This will also bring increasing chances for marine fog beginning early Tuesday morning, especially over the inner waters. Visibilities may fall below 1 SM at times as the southerly winds develop and upwelling occurs. Aside from the increasing winds and potential marine fog, significant wave heights look to remain relatively low at around 3 to 5 ft through Friday. -23 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ251-271. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Monday for PZZ252-253-272- 273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  487 FXUS63 KFGF 240446 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1146 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Hail to the size of golf balls and wind gusting to 70 mph will be the main threats. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Northern end of some convection has been tracking through the Devils Lake basin for the last couple of hours, with the main impacts being some rain up to 4 tenths of an inch so far and some lightning. Heavier cells tracking southeastward through Wells and Foster counties, but on a weakening trend as they move into less unstable air. Most of the CAMs have the complex weakening as it moves towards the Red River later tonight, although a few models break out some stronger convection again on the northwest side. Given cell currently tracking into northwestern ND from MT, will keep a close eye on the activity. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...Synopsis... Northwest flow prevails this afternoon into the evening, gradually becoming zonal overnight. Showers and isolated thunderstorms could work into parts of eastern North Dakota overnight as warm air advection increases ahead of an approaching shortwave. Upper flow then becomes slightly southwest late overnight into Monday morning. This will be in response to the shortwave and weak upper low moving across southern Manitoba late Monday into Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected as the associated cold front sweeps across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, with a chance for isolated severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Warm air advection ahead of the front will allow afternoon temperatures to climb well into the 80s across most of the area. Slightly cooler temps return on Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain chances Late Tuesday through Thursday will be minimal, with PoPs increasing once more late Friday into the weekend. ...Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Late Monday... Severe thunderstorm coverage on Monday afternoon and evening will depend heavily on the timing of an approaching cold front. Warm air advection will be strong through much of the day across eastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota; however, with remnant shower activity on Monday morning potentially lingering, this could shorten the window of potential severe weather late Monday. Looking at CAMs, there are several potential scenarios, ranging from potential splitting supercells, to elevated clusters. Model soundings are consistent with nearly straight hodographs as the front approaches, which continue to support splitting supercells and hybrid clusters. As such, a high end scenario supports supercells developing west of the Red River during the late afternoon, with hazards including wind gusts to 75 mph and large hail to the size of golf balls. A more likely scenario would be that we have lingering convective inhibition later into the afternoon, thus delaying convection until later in the evening. This would still support wind gusts up to 70 mph, but would transition into mainly an elevated hail scenario that extends into the early overnight hours. With this later scenario, we could see isolated severe thunderstorms lingering into Tuesday morning across parts of northwest Minnesota. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The main challenge throughout the TAF period will be shower and thunderstorm activity. Showers and thunderstorms have moved into the Devils Lake Basin. This activity will continue pushing eastward overnight, impacting KDVL, KGFK and KTVF. Instability is greatest further west, therefore maintained a PROB30 for -TSRA at KDVL, while at the other two terminals maintained -SHRA. Clouds will thin out as showers/storms decrease in coverage on Monday morning. Southerly winds of 10 to 14 knots accompanied by a few gusts to 20 knots within the Red River Valley will prevail Monday afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development may occur late Monday afternoon and evening, persisting into the overnight. At this time, low predictability in where storms form precludes any mention of them within the last few hours of the TAF. Once timing and location information becomes more clear, future iterations of the TAF will likely need PROB30s or TEMPOs for at least a handful of terminals. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...JR DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...Rafferty  451 FXUS64 KTSA 240445 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1145 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1145 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Temperatures mostly above normal with continued periods of locally high heat stress to continue through the week. The possible exception being around active thunderstorm activity. - Limited risk of severe weather Sunday night into early Monday with damaging wind potential the primary hazard. - Areas of localized fire weather concerns will persist until widespread beneficial rainfall occurs. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The immediate near term concern is the likelihood of at least scattered shower and thunderstorm development after midnight, beginning initially across parts of northeast Oklahoma and eventually working south and eastward toward daybreak, all in response to an increasing low level jet. There have already been signs of the initial development late this evening on KINX, along with other echoes across northwest Arkansas that have bubbled much of the evening. The expectation is for the potential for severe weather, focused on a locally damaging wind threat, to be highest in far northeast Oklahoma into northwest and west central Arkansas. Locally heavy rain should be expected as well. The overall trend into the daylight hours should be for an eastward shift through mid to late morning, a notable lull early afternoon, with a low chance of additional development in southeast Oklahoma mid to late afternoon in association with another mid level speed max. In addition to the shower and thunderstorm potential through the day, a portion of the area will continue to battle heat stress concerns. A Heat Advisory will be issued for a part of east central and southeast Oklahoma roughly along and south of I-40 and along and west of the Indian Nations Turnpike. This area is less likely to have significant rainfall and convective debris during the day and therefore, continued triple digit temperatures. It is possible that if lesser thunderstorm development materializes tonight and into the morning that this advisory will need to be expanded northeastward on later shifts. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday evening, with a gradual decrease in the potential for further development for much of the night, continuing into the day Tuesday. Overall, warmer conditions areawide are expected Tuesday, with additional heat headlines likely. The brief largely dry period for much of Monday night and into Tuesday looks to end Tuesday night as a fairly potent mid level disturbance moves into the area, leading to the development of a thunderstorm complex that moves southward into parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Cooler low level temperatures look to move southward into the area on the heels of this disturbance for Wednesday, with roughly the northern half of the area seeing temperatures closer to normal. The more normal temperatures should hang around into Thursday as well. A change in the overall upper level pattern is expected by the weekend, with the high pressure center shifting eastward. This should bring a longer stretch of dry weather and a return to hot temperatures areawide, particularly by Sunday and next Monday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Scattered to overcast high clouds are forecast to remain common through the period, along with few to broken mid clouds developing late tonight and Monday. Shower and thunderstorm chances return overnight tonight through early Monday afternoon with a shortwave dropping through the region. Greater potential looks to be early to late morning Monday and will continue Prob30 groups for timing for northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Otherwise, will carry VCSH just outside of the Prob30 groups. Gusty to locally strong winds, brief heavy rains, and brief MVFR conditions could develop within the convection Monday morning. Winds through the period continue to be easterly tonight and then transition between east and south Monday. Outside of any convection, VFR conditions are forecast through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 77 95 75 98 / 50 20 0 0 FSM 76 93 75 102 / 50 40 10 10 MLC 79 102 76 105 / 20 20 20 0 BVO 70 94 69 97 / 60 20 0 0 FYV 72 88 70 98 / 60 60 10 0 BYV 68 88 71 94 / 70 70 10 0 MKO 75 95 73 101 / 50 30 10 0 MIO 69 93 71 96 / 80 50 0 0 F10 76 100 74 102 / 30 20 10 0 HHW 77 103 77 103 / 10 20 20 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053-065- 066-071-073. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...20  569 FXUS63 KUNR 240450 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1050 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated severe thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon and evening, especially from the Black Hills east and south. - Upper ridge will dominate the weather with subtle disturbances through next week with temperatures about 4-8F above normal && .UPDATE... Issued at 1050 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Another round of at least isolated thunderstorms is expected to initiate off the Black Hills as early as 19z/1pm Monday afternoon, with the I-90 corridor and points south to the Nebraska border then favored through the evening as cells push southeast. Forecast soundings suggest this corridor will support the best combination of moisture, instability, and shear, with SBCAPE values potentially over 2,500 J/kg and convective temperatures likely to be reached to break the cap. Overall shear will be lower than today, and a mix of pulse, multicell, and transient supercell structures are possible. PoPs have been massaged to support this scenario based on the latest round of CAMs. Across most of the rest of the CWA, mostly dry and breezy conditions are expected. Fire weather conditions will be a touch elevated due to the heat and dry/breezy conditions, but wind gust and RH values are not expected to reach Red Flag criteria. && .DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Saturday) Issued at 1043 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 16z surface analysis had frontal boundary from eastern MT to eastern CO and a trough from eastern CO into northeastern NE. Water vapour loop had upper ridge over the southwest CONUS with a shortwave over north-central WY. Overnight MCS about to fully exit the CWA with leftover low stratus burning off per 0.5km 1-minute visible imagery. Main concern this forecast will be effect of north-central WY shortwave. This afternoon/tonight, shortwave moves into the Dakotas with slight increase in mid-level flow resulting in 30-45kt effective bulk shear later this afternoon. Td/s in the 60s will be sustained per breezy southeast winds ahead of frontal boundary. Band of 2-3KJ/kg MLCAPE forecast this afternoon over far western SD with minimum cap. Convective initiation (CI) will likely be over the Black Hills around 20z with supercells moving south/southeast at 10-20kts per Bunkers storm motion prognostications. Another area of strong/severe CI may develop over northwestern SD along the frontal boundary/trough interaction late this afternoon. CAMs handle this scenario in different fashion with some emphasizing MLCIN east of the Black Hills with some members not so much. Other strong/isolated severe convection may occur over the rest of the CWA. Sufficient buoyancy/bulk shear for marginal/slight (1-2 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms. Large hail/damaging wind the main threats with CIG1 magnitudes over western SD. Temperatures will be a bit below guidance this afternoon per low level moisture/dissipating stratus. Monday, diurnally driven convection possible in the afternoon/evening, but the upper support less certain compared to today. Temperatures will be near guidance. The rest of the forecast will be dominated by the upper ridge over the southwest CONUS. Ridge amplification into the northern Plains for the second half of the week suggests somewhat quieter and drier weather. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night) Issued At 1032 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are expecting through tonight. Tomorrow has more storm chances in the evening, primarily over the Black Hills and east. A PROB30 has been retained in the KRAP forecast to reflect this. Prior to any storms, winds across the area may get gusty, with gusts up to 20kts expected. &&.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ UPDATE...KSmith DISCUSSION...Helgeson AVIATION...Schweigert  634 FXUS64 KMEG 240452 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1152 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Shower and thunderstorm chances increase on Monday, mainly for areas in the Mississippi Delta - Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected through Thursday. - Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected across the Mid-South for most of the week, but extreme heat is not expected. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A 596 dam ridge remains parked over the Desert Southwest, placing the Mid-South in northwest flow aloft. Guidance continues to bring a shortwave out of the Rockies today, becoming embedded within the outer periphery of the ridge. This disturbance will increase shower and thunderstorm chances within the Mississippi Delta. There is potential for associated convection to remain west of the forecast area due to dry air aloft and lower dewpoints. If precipitation does occur in the Delta, amounts will be negligible. As for afternoon highs, the NBM continues to show a 7 degree spread amongst the 25th and 75th percentiles. This is likely due to issues in modeling cloud cover associated with the aforementioned precipitation. Regardless, afternoon highs will be much cooler than recent days as temperatures remain in the upper 80s to low 90s. As for Tuesday, lingering showers and storms cannot be ruled out through mid-morning but the latter half of the day should remain dry. Additional disturbances will eject out of the Rockies midweek into the weekend. This will keep daily rain chances in the forecast. The greatest rainfall potential will be Wednesday into Thursday as a warm front lifts north and a cold front approaches from the Upper Mississippi Valley. Confidence in severe weather potential is low at this time, but given persistent northwest flow aloft and forecast SBCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg a few strong storms cannot be ruled out. Details will become clearer as we move closer to midweek. Beyond Thursday's frontal passage, conditions will dry out for the upcoming weekend. Unfortunately, guidance brings hot and humid conditions back in the forecast with heat indices reaching headline criteria by Saturday. Until then, the probability of reaching 105 + heat index values is less than 20 percent. ANS && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Scattered -SRHA will move southeast from southern MO overnight, mainly affecting JBR to MEM toward sunrise. This precip will fall from high-based clouds near FL100, overlying a relatively dry sub- cloud layer. Impacts should be minimal. 00Z HREF remains consistent with earlier runs in showing the main corridor of TSRA extending from central AR into the Arklamiss Tuesday morning. VFR will prevail Monday afternoon, behind the exited -SHRA. A repeat of -SHRA will be possible early Tuesday morning, though the signal is not particularly strong in current guidance. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Fog is not anticipated Monday morning due to advancing cloud cover and elevated surface winds. The upcoming week will feature minimum relative humidity values in excess of 45 percent and daily wetting rain chances. As such, fire weather concerns are at a minimum. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...ANS  694 FXUS63 KGRR 240455 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1255 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Afternoon Showers Today - Dry Monday/Tuesday, Showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 149 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Afternoon Showers Today Moisture from Lake Michigan, steep low level laps rates providing around 200 J/kg of CAPE, along with mid level support from the upper level low are sparking off isolated to scattered showers. These will be largely north of a Ludington to Jackson line before the inversion builds in this evening and we lose our surface based instability. Thunderstorms are not expected. - Dry Monday/Tuesday, Showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday Pressure heights increase Monday into Tuesday as the upper level low over the eastern Great Lakes shifts east. Northwest winds will continue for Monday with gusts to 20 mph. Tuesday winds will be lighter and more variable. High temperatures will be in the 70s Monday and warm to around 80 for Tuesday. Low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s. Southerly winds build in ahead of our next shortwave trough that is expected to slowly move through Wednesday. Warm air advection and the low level jet will feed into the area with instability around 1000 J/kg. Shear values only look to be around 25 knots, therefore confidence in storms becoming severe is low. Long range ensemble clusters are in good agreement that most of the rain ends by Thursday morning, although we could see another round of diurnal showers similar to today Thursday afternoon. The probability of a half inch of rain in 24 hours during this time is less than 20 percent. Friday ensembles are in good agreement to expect dry conditions but confidence decreases over the weekend as we remain in transitional flow where a few weak shortwaves could bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1252 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions for this TAF period with some few/sct cumulus developing after about 14z. Winds will be less gusty today compared to Sunday, but still holding fairly steady from the WNW. Just beyond this TAF period, we may see some fog development into Tuesday morning. Will take a closer look for the 12z TAF issuance. && .MARINE... Issued at 149 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Wave heights around 4 feet have been observed this afternoon with northwest winds gusting around 20 knots. Expect Small Craft Advisory and High Swim risk conditions to continue into this evening before winds and waves subside tonight. Wave heights could remain around 4 feet north of Big Sable after midnight. Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots Monday will keep wave heights around 2 to 3 feet. Moderate Swim Risk conditions are expected through Monday afternoon before wave heights fall below 2 feet Monday night into Tuesday. The next chance for Small Craft Advisory and High Swim Risk conditions will be Wednesday which matches up with our next chance for showers and thunderstorms. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...Hoving MARINE...RAH  751 FXUS64 KMOB 240456 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1156 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1148 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected each afternoon this week, particularly across the southern half of the area. Storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. - Hot conditions continue, with heat indices topping out at around 102-107 degrees each day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A much more active weather pattern is expected this week as our local area remains underneath a northwesterly flow pattern aloft. This flow is the result of a building ridge over the Rockies and longwave troughing over the Great Lakes region. Over the coming days, several embedded shortwaves are expected to push through this flow and pass overhead, helping to provide large scale ascent to the local region. Pairing this with PWATs of around 2 inches and a highly unstable environment due to strong diurnal heating, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop each day this week, mainly during the afternoon and into the evening hours. Latest CAMs suggest that this coming afternoon/evening may be one of the more active days this week as a rather stout shortwave pushes into the local area. Although storms over our area may initially develop along the sea breeze boundary by the coast and spread via outflow boundaries, guidance is also suggesting that upstream storms, sparked by the shortwave aloft, may organize into an MCS and push southeastward throughout the day. Although a bit uncertain as to how much of the local area will be impacted by this MCS, confidence is higher for locations west of the Tombigbee River at this time. Although any storm that develops today will be capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall, the greatest threat for strong to severe weather will come with this MCS. Right now guidance has this MCS entering our Mississippi counties by as early as 2PM and pushing off the Alabama coast by or before 8PM. Damaging winds will be the greatest hazard from this complex. Heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flooding is also a concern. Latest HREF 24hr LPMMs suggest 3-5 inches of rain over portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama, along with localized maximums of around 5-7 inches. If storms can train over the same areas for a long period of time, then these values may become realized. Rain chances quickly diminish this evening in the wake of the MCS. As stated before, daily chances for scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected throughout the remainder of the week. Highest coverage looks to be over our coastal counties thanks to development along the sea breeze boundary. Each day comes with the risk of gusty to locally damaging downburst winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flooding concerns. Some guidance suggests that another MCS may travel within the northwesterly flow and impact portions of the local area midweek. If this were to happen, then similar to today, damaging winds would be the primary impact. We will monitor trends closely over the coming days. With the increase in rain chances, high temperatures are expected to trend back to seasonal norms. Highs in the low to mid 90s today should decrease to the upper 80s to low 90s by midweek. Heat indices throughout the period should generally remain just below Heat Advisory criteria (around 102-107), although a few localized spots of 108-110 degrees cannot be ruled out along the coast. Lows will range from the low 70s inland to the upper 70s along the coast. ALow Risk of rip currents remains in place through the week. /96 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tonight and into the morning hours on Monday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms should start to develop across the area by the late morning/early afternoon hours. Expect brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. A few strong to severe storms, capable of producing gusty/erratic winds cannot be ruled out. Light and variable winds tonight will become a light northwesterly to westerly flow by the mid to late morning hours. Winds along the coast may become more southerly by the afternoon. /96 && .MARINE... Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A light to occasionally moderate westerly flow pattern continues through this week. Winds are expected to shift from southwesterly each afternoon to northwesterly late each night. Isolated to potentially scattered showers and storms can be expected each morning during next week with locally higher seas and winds near storms. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 97 75 95 74 / 30 10 60 40 Pensacola 96 78 93 77 / 30 30 50 40 Destin 93 80 91 78 / 10 10 40 50 Evergreen 99 72 97 71 / 20 20 40 50 Waynesboro 99 73 97 73 / 20 20 50 40 Camden 96 73 95 72 / 10 10 30 40 Crestview 98 73 95 72 / 20 20 50 50 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  784 FXUS65 KPUB 240457 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1057 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scatted to numerous showers and storms expected this evening, especially across the plains. - Showers and storms expected each day of the upcoming week, though with a downtick in activity for the later part of the week. - Flash flooding will be a concern for the first half of the week, especially across the Aspen Acres burn scar. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 203 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Tonight: For Sunday night, active weather continues for portions of south central and southeastern Colorado. A ridge of high pressure will be remain in place just south of the area, with rich monsoon moisture streaming up and around this feature and into the area. This moisture tap, along with influence from vort maxes and shortwaves, will help showers and storms ongoing during the late afternoon to push across the plains through late evening to early overnight. While shear will be lackluster, a couple of strong storms will be possible given increased CAPE values. The strongest storms may be capable of producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding, along with gusty outflow winds to around 55 mph from wet microburst/heavy water laden downdrafts. Along with that, given the moisture in place, showers may continue to fester across the higher terrain and valleys into the late evening. With that all said, showers and storms are expected to dissipate by the mid overnight hours, with dry conditions by tomorrow morning. Outside of all of that, with the pattern in place, winds are expected to remain light outside of storms, less than 10 mph, with pockets of clouds persisting through much of the evening and overnight hours. Looking at temperatures, another warm and above seasonal lows night is anticipated given the moisture and cloud cover. The plains will cool into the 60s, the valleys into the upper 40s to upper 50s, and the mountains into the low 40s to mid 50s. Tomorrow: Heading into Monday, another similar day to the past couple is expected for south central and southeastern Colorado. The high pressure will continue to sit south of the area, and continue to stream deep moisture up and around and into the region. Again, with influences from vort maxes and shortwaves, another round afternoon showers and storms is anticipated, with initial development along the higher terrain, and increasing in coverage across the valleys and plains heading into mid to later afternoon. Heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and strong outflow winds to around 50-55 mph will be possible with any stronger storms. Beyond of all that, also similar to the past couple of days, winds will remain light, around 10 mph, outside of influences from storms, with clouds increasing in coverage through the afternoon hours. As for temperatures, another warm and above seasonal day is anticipated. The plains will warm into the 90s, the valleys into the 80s, and the mountains into the mid 50s and upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 203 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Monday Night - Saturday: For the rest of the forecast period, active weather continues for south central and southeastern Colorado, though with a downtick in activity heading into the later part of the week. The stubborn high pressure will remain in place through at least the first half of the week, bringing additional abundant moisture. This moisture, along with any vort maxes and short waves, will bring additional days with afternoon and evening showers and storms, with the greatest coverage Tuesday and Wednesday. Then heading into the later part of the week, the high pressure is expected to drift southward and flatten out. This will eventuallycut-off the deeper moisture tap, with showers and storms decreasing in coverage past Wednesday, but especially Friday and Saturday. Otherwise, winds continue to remain relatively light, with increased cloud cover expected each afternoon. As for temperatures, while a dip is expected midweek, temperatures remain warm and mostly above seasonal values, especially heading into next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1050 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Surface Winds will be light and diurnally driven. Some isolated thunder may affect the taf sites late tomorrow afternoon and early evening. Gusty winds will be the main concern with the storms. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for COZ079-080-086. && $$ SHORT TERM...SIMCOE LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...HODANISH