089 FXUS63 KAPX 240300 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy winds and cool temperatures continue Monday with dry weather expected through the first half of the week. - Rain chances return late Wednesday/Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 227 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Impressive late-summer troughing will continue to churn over the Great Lakes tonight as it eventually lifts northeast early this week. The associated surface cyclone centered along the Ontario/Quebec border will weaken with time as the system becomes increasingly vertically stacked, cutting off favorable advections for support. Meanwhile, ridging sliding over the northern Great Plains will help build surface high pressure across the region through the first half of the week. Troughing eventually works back overhead during the second half of the week, likely bringing another system across the Great Lakes in the late Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. Forecast Details: Fall-feeling weather across the area today with breezy winds and cool temperatures will continue into Monday. While afternoon highs will be a few degrees warmer on Monday, readings are still expected to stay in the upper 60s to low 70s for most of the area -- around 5 degrees cooler than late-August averages. Northwest winds between 10- 20 mph with gusts to 25-35 mph will persist this afternoon and continue Monday as well, although slightly less windy conditions are anticipated tomorrow. Isolated to scattered light lake enhanced rain showers today are also expected to draw to a close for most areas later this evening and tonight as an increasingly hostile environment moves in as aforementioned high pressure builds. The exception will be across the far eastern U.P./Lake Huron shoreline tonight into early Monday morning as rain looks to linger on the backside of the system as it exits. Cannot completely rule out a few showers Monday, but the first half of the week is expected to be dry across northern Michigan. Our next chances for rain will return late Wednesday and Thursday as troughing digs back into the Great Lakes. Timing appears to be delayed some from previous forecast cycles, potentially keeping most of Wednesday dry. That said, steadier rain chances appear increasingly likely in the front end of this system late Wednesday/early Thursday with additional rain showers possible through late Thursday on the backside of the departing system. Otherwise, highs will warm back into the upper 70s and low 80s by Tuesday with temperatures set to cool back into the upper 60s and 70s during the second half of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1055 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Band of MVFR producing low clouds and some light showers expected to continue to impact KCIU and KAPN into this morning. May also see some of this lower overcast impact KPLN as well, but confidence remains low in this occurring. Cigs will only slowly improve at KCIU and KAPN through today, with more rapid improvement this evening. VFR conditions the remainder of the taf locations through the period under some passing higher based cumulus at times. Gusty northwest winds will continue today, with winds decreasing this evening. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ016- 018-020-021-024>026-031-098-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for LHZ346. Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Monday for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to midnight EDT Monday night for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342- 344. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for LMZ345-346. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322. && $$ DISCUSSION...DJC AVIATION...MSB  185 FXUS63 KLSX 240301 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 1001 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable temperatures in the 80s continue this week with mostly dry weather expected. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A ridge of high pressure in the Southwest US and a trough over the Great Lakes has led to a subsident upper level flow through our area. That promotes high pressure and dry weather. At the surface, broad high pressure extends from western Ontario south into northern Missouri this afternoon with this high gradually nudging east over the next couple days. Tonight we'll see winds go light and temperatures drop into the low 60s and upper 50s. For some this will be the first time we've seen 50s since June. Clouds have the potential to complicate the cooling forecast tonight, especially in central Missouri. A limited attempt at moisture return northward through the Plains tonight may trigger an area of convection in Nebraska, tracking southeast into western Missouri. The rain from this likely stays west of our forecast area, but clouds have a better potential to spread into central Missouri, potentially holding temperatures a bit warmer overnight, in the low 60s. Tomorrow will be a very similar day to today, though perhaps a few degrees warmer. The high slides east allowing winds to turn southeasterly. Another day of sun will help to modify the air mass back into the low to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The trough in the east sees some reorientation this week. The initial trough lifts northeast out of New England and into the Canadian Maritimes while another trough arrives from the west and digs into the Great Lakes to replace it. Meanwhile, the Southwest Ridge remains largely in the same location with some daily wobbles. For us locally we'll maintain the persistent northwest flow aloft with richer moisture remaining suppressed to the south and west. Temperatures continue to gradually rebound through the mid and even upper 80s by Wednesday. The next trough arriving in the Great Lakes pushes a cold front southward through our forecast area Wednesday into Wednesday night. This represents our next best chance for rain, but those chances remain fairly limited locally. The better forcing with the trough passes by to our north, while the richer moisture remains suppressed to our south. The low resolution ensemble (LREF) guidance remains more ambitious with rain chances than the NBM. Of the LREF guidance, 60 to 70 percent of members produce rain across our forecast area in the 24 hours ending Wednesday night, up 10 percent from yesterday. Meanwhile, NBM 12hour PoP remains in the 10 to 20 percent range. This discrepancy is partially a result of timing variance in the guidance, but also uncertainty in the development of another convective complex to our west over the Plains linking up with the better moisture. The LREF may also be overestimating the rain chances a bit due to the lower resolution of this guidance, something NBM is tuned to adjust for with low QPF events. If we look deeper in the LREF we see the percentage of members that produce 0.05 inch or greater rainfall is only 30 to 40 percent over that same time period. This gives credence to the idea that the low resolution guidance may be indicating more widespread light rain amounts than should be expected as precipitation in this time period should be convective in nature. The air mass behind Wednesday's front is not as cool and dry as the last one, and we only get a small taste of it. So we do see the high temperature forecast for Thursday and Friday a few degrees lower than Wednesday, but still near normal for this time of year, in the mid 80s. Guidance is in good agreement that the western ridge flattens and spreads out across the southern tier of the country this weekend into the following week. This reduces the extremity of the heat within the ridge, but also broadens that warmth back into our area. By Saturday the NBM probability of 90 degrees creeps back up into the 20 to 40 percent range. Mercifully, the humidity remains limited at least initially, with NBM probability of 70 dewpoint only up to about 40 percent by the same time frame. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 957 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Cool overnight temperatures and light winds will provide ideal conditions for fog, particularly in river vallies. This will lead to a high chance for impacts at KJEF, KSUS, and KCPS. The threat of fog outside of river vallies is greatest across portions of central Illinois, leading to a threat of reduced visibilities at KUIN. Any fog that develops will dissipate shortly after sunrise, with VFR flight conditions then expected through the day. While winds have been forecast to prevail out the east, they may remain variable through the day. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kimble LONG TERM...Kimble AVIATION...Elmore  510 FXUS64 KOHX 240308 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1008 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 953 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Look for dry, cooler evening and overnight periods through Tuesday morning. Fog is possible across the river valleys each morning. - Low to medium rain and storm chances return Wednesday and Wednesday night, then taper off on Thursday. But no hazardous weather is expected for the foreseeable future. - Temperatures from Wednesday through the weekend will stay close to seasonal norms, then perhaps a little warmer to start off next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The 00Z sounding at OHX is barely underway, but already we can tell you that the temperature and dew point curves are miles apart, so that's pretty much all you need to know about the state of the atmosphere this evening. It feels wonderful outside, with the humidity at a nadir and a pleasant north breeze coming in. High pressure over the upper midwest is bringing us this cooler, less humid air mass. The next two mornings promise to be several degrees cooler than normal, and the next opportunity for active weather won't come our way until Wednesday. Although summer is far from over, you can almost hear autumn knocking at the door. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday Night) Issued at 953 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Temperatures are cooling off quite nicely this evening and low dew points are allowing for excellent radiation cooling across Middle Tennessee. We've got couple of cool nights in store, along with non-existent rain chances the next couple of days. This evening, high pressure centered over the upper midwest is keeping the air mass over Middle Tennessee dry and a little cooler than seasonal norms, while we remain underneath a northwest flow aloft with ridging situated to our west. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 953 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Our next rain chances start to develop on Wednesday as a surface low comes together over the Arklatex and develops a boundary across the Gulf Coast states and into the Tennessee Valley. It's not a lot to work with, but we do introduce low to medium PoPs Wednesday and Wednesday night, with rain chances tapering off on Thursday as the system pulls off to the east. Although there will be some storm chances, QPF values are somewhat anemic, and we certainly aren't outlooked for any severe storms for the foreseeable future. Temperatures will warm up to seasonal values by Wednesday, with readings staying close to seasonal norms through the weekend, then warming up a bit to start off next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions persist this taf cycle with light northerly winds. A mid-level cloud deck around 6000 ft is streaming in from the northwest and this will lead to episodes of SCT to BKN cloud coverage through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 62 89 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 61 87 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 58 82 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 63 90 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 60 84 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 59 82 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 62 88 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 62 89 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 63 88 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Rose SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Baggett  154 FXUS64 KMAF 240320 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1020 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1019 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Hot temperatures continue through midweek with record heat possible on Monday. - The prolonged period of hot temperatures could result in heat related illnesses. Be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in air conditioning or the shade if possible. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Upper-level high on the order of 597-598 dm has become centered over southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon. This feature will remain firmly planted over our region through Monday and will result in continued hot temperatures and dry conditions with near record heat possible Monday afternoon. High temperatures will range between 103-108 degrees across the western Low Rolling Plains, much of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, Trans Pecos, and areas along the Rio Grande. These readings will be within our Heat Advisory criteria range over portions of southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin, and once again into the western Low Rolling Plains, so we have issued a Heat Advisory product for these locations from noon-8 PM CDT (11 AM - 7 PM MDT) Monday. The August 24th record high temperature at Midland is 103 degrees, which was set in 1936 and there is a good chance we will at least tie, if not break that record (the latest forecast calls for 103-104 degrees in the Midland/Odessa area). Early morning lows may briefly drop into the mid to upper 70s, but a few places may not get below 80. Stay hydrated and keep in the air conditioning or shade if possible. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Upper-level high pressure will remain in place across our region through Tuesday before perhaps retrograding slightly westward over the Desert Southwest by mid to late week. Hot temperatures will persist through Wednesday with highs each day continuing to range between 100-106 over much of the region. The highest readings will impact the northeast Basin/western Low Rolling Plains and locations along the Pecos River Valley and Rio Grande. Overnight lows mostly range in the 70s, except for readings in the 60s over higher elevation areas. Shortwave impulses embedded within the northwest flow aloft on the eastern side of the ridge could bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to portions of the area Wednesday into Thursday, with rain chances up to 30-40% over portions of southeast New Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin by Wednesday evening. Temperatures remain above normal Thursday-Saturday with some locations near or above the century mark. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1019 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in weak return flow, w/a few high clouds. A few high-based cu are anticipated beginning late Monday morning invof KHOB. Convective temps elsewhere look too high. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 79 106 76 105 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 73 105 75 104 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 76 104 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 75 103 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 70 96 72 97 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 73 104 72 103 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 65 97 64 97 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 78 103 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 78 104 77 102 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 76 106 76 104 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for Andrews-Borden- Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Midland- Mitchell-Scurry-Winkler. NM...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Monday for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Southern Lea. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...99  401 FXUS66 KLOX 240329 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 829 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS...23/758 PM. Very hot conditions will dominate the week, with a high risk for heat illness. Patchy night through morning low clouds and locally dense fog will be confined to coastal areas, mainly north of Point Conception. && .SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...23/818 PM. A large dome of high pressure aloft, affecting the southern half of the United States, will dominate the week ahead. The core of the high is currently centered over New Mexico and Texas, and will change little through Monday, but then start to shift to the west on Tuesday. By Thursday, the core of the high will be centered over Arizona, right on our doorstep. Meanwhile, Onshore flow will weaken a little and the low-level prevailing flow will become more northerly. These two ingredients will bring even hotter conditions that what we saw over the weekend, with the noticeable jump happening on Tuesday or Wednesday. All areas 5-10 miles inland of the beaches will likely see high temperatures in the 100-110 range by Tuesday or Wednesday, with little change through Friday or Saturday. The northerly shift in the flow means that the hottest conditions will not be in the desert, but in the coastal valleys. Expecting several calendar day records to fall. Overnight conditions will be warm as well. The magnitude of the daytime temperatures, the limited relief overnight, and the prolonged nature of this heat event raises the bar to the high level in terms of the risk for heat-related illness. The current suite of Heat Advisories and Extreme Heat Watches looks good. Expecting most of the areas, especially inland of the beaches, to be upgraded to Extreme Heat Warnings by tomorrow or Tuesday, with most of the rest of the area not covered (SLO and northern Santa Barbara Counties) being added to the part with either Advisories or Warnings. Sundowner winds will affect southern Santa Barbara County through the week, and should increase some each night. Wind Advisories might be needed by Tuesday. The shallow marine layer will likely keep low clouds and dense fog on the Central Coast through Tuesday, but developing offshore flow may either keep it off the coast after that or complete scour it out. If that happens, expect temperatures to increase above current projections (although they have been upped to better account for this possibility). How the marine layer will behave over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties is anyones guess at this point. There are indications of a coastal eddy forming by Tuesday, which increases the odds of some shallow low clouds at the coast, but it is a really tough call. .LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...23/300 AM. The only real question for the Wed through Fri forecast is: will it be very hot or extremely hot. This forceast problem is driven by a wide range of possibilities with the sfc gradients. The EC is show a fairly strong offshore push which would bring near record very dangerous heat to the area. The GFS keeps the E/W gradient onshore but even it has some offshore flow forecast from the north (just much less than the EC does). The upper high moves a little to the west but hgts really do not change much and should remain around 594 dam through the period. Almost all of the vlys, lower mtn elevations and far interior will have temps between 100 and 110 degrees during this period. If the EC verifies Vly temps could end up 2 to 3 degrees warmer than the current forecast. The interior cst sections (such as DTLA) have a 15 percent chc of high temps of 100 to 103 degrees. The Central Coast will not be immune from the heat this time around. Offshore trends will lead to an 8 to 12 degree warm up on Wednesday leading to max temps in the upper 80s to mid 90s - there is a 10-20 percent chc that SLO could see 100 degrees. In addition to the daytime highs overnight lows will be 8 to 12 degrees above normal and this will greatly exacerbate the heat risk as there will be no time for people's body to release the heat stress. It is very likely that almost the entire forecast area will be blanketed by some combination of heat advisories and Extreme Heat Warnings starting Wednesday. One additional local concern will be very hot sundowners across southern SBA county. A decent N to S gradient will set up over the county each evening and gusty north canyon winds will develop. These hot winds could drive max temps into the 100-105 degree range and could also keep temperatures in the 80s until almost dawn. Some cooling is forecast on Saturday, but in the past these heat waves have held on a little longer than forecast. && .AVIATION...24/0025Z. At 2327Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 500 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 2500 feet with a temperature of 30 degrees Celsius. For the 00Z TAF package, high confidence in KPRB, KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KWJF and KPMD. For KSBP, there is a 40-50% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop tonight. For KSMX, timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecast, with a 20% chance of brief or no CIGs forming. For KLAX and KLGB, there is a 10-20% chance of LIFR/IFR conditions 08Z-17Z. KLAX...Overall, good confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 20% chance of LIFR/IFR conditions 08Z-17Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in the 00Z TAF. && .MARINE...23/806 PM. For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Friday, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are expected to continue although the winds will drop briefly across PZZ670 tonight and Monday. Short period SCA level seas (5 to 7 feet at 6-8 seconds) will continue along with the gusty winds. Wednesday into Thursday, larger seas approaching 7-9 feet are likely. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Monday night, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Tuesday through Friday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds each afternoon and evening. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Friday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds Monday through Friday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory in effect until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through Friday evening for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 4 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...RK/Rorke AVIATION...Ciliberti MARINE...RAT/Ciliberti SYNOPSIS...RK weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  580 FXUS64 KBRO 240333 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1033 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, CLIMATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1017 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Very hot, record to near record-breaking temperatures and rain- free conditions are expected to persist through this week. - Widespread Major (Level 3 of 4) with increasing areas of Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk is expected through this week. - Worsening drought conditions are expected to continue due to the combination of very hot temperatures, antecedent dry conditions, and very high evaporation rates. - The combination of dry fuels, lowering relative humidity values, and hot temperatures could lead to elevated fire danger risks through this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1017 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 An anomalously strong, sprawling 594-598 dam heat dome, that's resulting in a dangerous heat wave across the Southwest U.S. and Southern Plains, will continue to yield hotter than normal, record to near record-breaking temperatures over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through next weekend and for that matter through the month of August (see CLIMATE SECTION). To put into context how persistent the heat has been, Brownsville and Harlingen today recorded its 6th and 7th consecutive 100F degree day, respectively amid this strong and vast heat dome. Widespread triple digit heating including over Harlingen and Brownsville will continue through the forecast period as the aforementioned heat dome remains parked over the 4-Corners Region. Given the fact that climatologically we are in the hottest part of the year (i.e. average high temperature for McAllen is 100F degrees) and yet forecasted temperatures are projected to be 4-8F degrees hotter than the climatological peak temperatures will result in dangerously hot conditions even for the RGV's standards in the days ahead. That said, widespread Major (Level 3 of 4) with increasing areas of Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk is expected through next weekend. The combination of very hot temperatures and dry conditions will continue to result in very strong evaporation rates. This will lead to a continuation of worsening or expanding drought conditions across Deep South Texas and Rio Grande Valley during this stretch. Furthermore, wildfire concerns will also remain on the table through next weekend as relative humidity (RH) levels drop during the afternoon hours to near Fire Danger Statement (RFD) criteria on already dry fuels. Winds and RH value trends will need to be closely monitored through next weekend for the potential issuance of a Fire Danger Statement. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Through 00z Tuesday....VFR conditions will prevail through the 00z TAF cycle. Winds will continue out of the south-southeast 5-15 kts through the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1017 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Favorable marine conditions are expected throughout the week with low seas (1 to 2 foot wave heights) and light to moderate southeasterly winds. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1017 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A massive and strong 594-598 dam heat dome situated over the Southwest U.S. and the Southern Plains will result in record to near record-breaking temperatures during the workweek. Daytime high temperature anomalies are expected to run 4-8F degrees above normal levels during this timeframe. Below is a list of record highs from August 24-28: Monday August 24th, 2026 Brownsville: 100F in 1970 Harlingen: 102F in 2010, 1936, & 1952 McAllen: 105F in 2018 Tuesday August 25th, 2026 Brownsville: 100F in 2019 Harlingen: 103F in 1924 McAllen: 105F in 2019 Wednesday August 26th, 2026 Brownsville: 101F in 2019 Harlingen: 103F in 1924 and 1948 McAllen: 104F in 2019 and 2018 Thursday August 27th, 2026 Brownsville: 102F in 2023 Harlingen: 104F in 1948 McAllen: 105F in 2018 Friday August 28th, 2026 Brownsville: 106F in 2023 Harlingen: 106F in 2011 McAllen: 107F in 2023 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 98 80 98 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 76 102 76 102 / 0 10 0 10 MCALLEN 79 104 79 104 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 104 77 105 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 90 81 90 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 97 78 97 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23-Evbuoma LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma AVIATION...23-Evbuoma  713 FXUS66 KMTR 240339 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 839 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1237 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Near to slightly below normal temperatures persist in the marine layer this week - Warm and dry conditions continue above 1000 feet && .UPDATE... Issued at 836 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Stratus clouds have been reported along the coastal areas along with extensive high cloud cover across the region. Some expansion of the low clouds is possible through the night into the early hours of Monday morning, with a compressed marine layer combined with impaired radiational cooling due to the high clouds resulting in limited inland development tonight. The forecast remains on track. DialH && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1237 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 (This evening through Monday night) Not too much change in the forecast today as the Bay Area and Central Coast remain in between an upper level trough to the north and a ridge over the Desert Southwest. Ridging remains more dominant through this evening before the center of the ridge shifts eastward early Monday and troughing becomes more dominant over the region. High temperatures are forecast to peak in the upper 80s to low 90s across the interior with far interior Monterey County reaching the low 100s. Coastal areas are benefiting from a shallow (~1000 foot) marine layer that brought patchy stratus and drizzle to the coast and the SF Bay shoreline. This will keep temperatures cooler in coastal areas with highs peaking in the 60s to low 70s. Heading into Monday, the center of the upper level ridge will shift eastward with troughing becoming the dominant feature over us. The return of troughing will help the marine layer to (slightly) deepen and bring it from approximately 1000 ft to 1200-1500 ft. A slightly deeper marine layer will allow for a greater inland intrusion of stratus, but, stratus is not likely to be as widespread as it was last week. Temperatures are expected to drop by around 5 degrees for most interior locations. This will see a return of highs in the low to mid 80s while the higher elevations above the marine layer will stay comparatively warmer in the upper 80s to low 90s. Coastal areas will remain in the 60s to low 70s with additional periods of coastal drizzle likely during the early morning hours. The one questionable part of the forecast is if any thunderstorms will be able to develop across the North Bay Interior Mountains (particularly Napa County) early Monday morning. The Euro suggests that there will be sufficient moisture, instability, and lift as a weak shortwave trough moves in to California for orographically driven thunderstorms to develop there early Monday morning. NBM guidance gives around a 5% chance of thunderstorms developing. Any precipitation that falls would likely be virga/evaporate before reaching the surface given model Skew-T soundings showing a large dry layer between the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere. Confidence remains low overall in storm development, however, as other models (GFS, NAM, HRRR, RRFS) do not support storms developing tomorrow morning with the Euro being an outlier. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1237 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 (Tuesday through next Saturday) Troughing prevails through Tuesday with high temperatures remaining in the 60s to 70s along the coast, 80s across the interior, upper 80s to low 90s across the higher elevations, and upper 90s to low 100s across the interior Central Coast. Stratus is expected along the coast and portions of the SF Bay shoreline but continues to be limited in extent. The center of the upper level ridge shifts back westwards Wednesday to Thursday with high temperatures warming by around 5 degrees across the interior (largely returning temperatures to the upper 80s to 90s). Friday into the weekend, temperatures cool by a few degrees as ridging weakens and troughing deepens/strengthens over the Pacific. Troughing looks to continue into next week with a deep upper level low moving into the Pacific Northwest and Northern California. It will be worth keeping an eye on this incoming trough and the arrival of any potential tropical moisture towards the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC guidance shows three active areas of tropical interest offshore of Mexico with recently named TS Iselle in the vicnity as well. Guidance is starting to indicate some tropical moisture from these systems may be brought north as the trough arrives but it is unclear how far north this tropical moisture will go. Some models keep it more over Southern California while others bring it up into Monterey/San Benito counties. Models are already showing an increase in southerly swell associated with the uptick in tropical activity across the Eastern Pacific this weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 439 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR continues except for patchy coastal stratus and fog /MVFR- IFR/. Mid and high clouds, including wildfire smoke over the north Central Coast, are moving northeastward over the forecast area. Coastal stratus and fog /MVFR-IFR-LIFR/ redevelop tonight and Monday morning. Conditions improve to MVFR-VFR along the coast late Monday morning and afternoon otherwise VFR Monday. Vicinity of SFO...VFR prevails until stratus /MVFR/ develops 12z Monday. VFR returns 18z Monday. West wind 5 to 15 knots with occasional afternoon and evening gusts near 20 knots. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR then stratus /IFR-LIFR/ moves inland mid to late evening to Monday morning. Conditions improve to MVFR- VFR late Monday morning and afternoon. West to northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 836 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Moderate northwest breezes gradually diminish this evening and become gentle by tomorrow. Occasional strong gusts are possible this evening, particularly across the Northern outer waters and near the Big Sur coast. Slight to moderate wind driven seas prevail into the work week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  845 FXUS64 KLUB 240342 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1042 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1031 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Very hot temperatures continue Monday and Tuesday with possible record breaking highs on Monday. - Elevated fire conditions expected Monday afternoon with breezy southwesterly winds and low RH values. - Thunderstorm chances every evening from Tuesday through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The rest of tonight will be quiet and with unseasonably warm lows. Lows will range from the lower 70s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to lower 80s across the eastern portions of the Rolling Plains. Light southerly winds will gradually shift to the west through the overnight hours as a surface low to the north of the forecast area shifts to the southeast. Winds are also expected to increase to around 15 mph through the morning and early afternoon hours. Winds will weaken and become variable through the late afternoon and evening hours as the surface low continues to move away from the region and a boundary looks to move in from the north. Very similar to the past few days, the upper ridging will remain over the region Monday resulting in very hot temperatures again. Temperatures will range from 104 to 109 degrees on the Caprock and up to 113 degrees off the Caprock. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and the Rolling Plains and a Heat Advisory is in effect for the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and South Plains from noon until 8 PM Monday. Record breaking high temperatures are possible at both KLBB and KCDS. The current daily high temperature for KLBB is 104 degrees set in 2024 and KCDS is 109 degrees set in 1936. The forecast highs for KLBB and KCDS are 106 and 110 degrees, respectively. With breezy winds through much of the afternoon and RH values dropping as low as 12 percent, elevated fire conditions will be possible Monday, especially during the afternoon. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect for the far southern Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and Rolling Plains from noon until 8 PM Monday. A surface trough across CO/NM will result in isolated to maybe scattered thunderstorms developing across eastern NM. There is a slight chance for these thunderstorms to sneak into our forecast area, especially across areas on the Caprock, late Monday afternoon through the evening. Not expecting much from these storms, however could see gusty outflows and plenty of lightning. A boundary pushing in from the north could prolong storms through the overnight hours. However, the chances for that are low. Once the storms clear the region, the rest of the night is expected to be quiet with lows in the upper 60s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and lower 80s across the southern Rolling Plains. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Luckily, Monday will be the hottest day of the week and Tuesday will be the start of a "cool" down the rest of the week. The upper ridging that parked over the region the past few days will finally begin to retreat west on Tuesday. Models are in agreement the upper ridging will remain over the Desert Southwest through the latter half of the week. Although Tuesday will be slightly cooler compared to Monday, high temperatures will remain in the triple digits. Highs off the Caprock will be around Heat Advisory temperatures(105-109 degrees), therefore can expect a Heat Advisory issued in future forecasts. High temperatures the rest of the week will range from mid 90s to just below Heat Advisory temperatures. Multiple passing embedded shortwaves will bring thunderstorm chances every late afternoon and evening from Tuesday through Thursday. Sadly, models are indicating the upper ridging will push back east over the region through the weekend bringing dry conditions and very hot temperatures again. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR and generally light winds will continue. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ021>023- 027>030-033>036-039>041. Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ024>026- 031-032-037-038-042>044. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...19  129 FXUS63 KDMX 240347 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1047 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Generally quiet weather for the upcoming work week, with high temperatures in the low to mid-80s each day. - Some light showers are possible across the western half of Iowa late tonight into Monday morning. A few showers and thunderstorms will also be possible on Tuesday into Tuesday night, with a low risk of severe weather just to our northeast in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin. - A more active weather pattern will return with additional thunderstorm chances next weekend, but any further details remain unclear at this range. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 108 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A large surface high pressure ridge dominates the region today, stretching from south central Canada down over the Upper Midwest and Iowa. The result is seasonally comfortable conditions, light and variable winds, and a lack of low-level clouds. Meanwhile, a large 500 MB heat dome is sitting over the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains, with a ridge extending northward into central Canada. Two relatively subtle shortwave impulses are overtopping this ridge, with a larger trough moving over the Washington/British Columbia region. The first of the two shortwaves is sliding southeastward across Nebraska at this time and producing light showers there, as well as some higher cirrus clouds that are streaming over central Iowa but only modestly blunting insolation. All in all it is a beautiful day for most outdoor interests in our area. As the leading impulse slides from Nebraska into Kansas and Missouri later today, some of the showers over Nebraska may just clip the southwestern corner of our forecast area. However, dry air entrainment and subsidence associated with the surface ridge will inhibit any such eastward expansion, and recent regional radar trends support the rain staying just to our southwest so have kept the forecast dry through this evening except for some 20% POPs down by Taylor County. From tonight into Monday, as the second impulse moves overhead and in closer proximity, gradual saturation of the atmospheric column should support some light rain in our western and southwestern counties, mainly after midnight and into Monday morning. However, even then, there is a notable lack of instability and forecast soundings still show fairly substantial dry air to overcome, especially with the farther eastward one goes in our forecast area. With this in mind, have maintained relatively low (20-30%) POPs in our western counties from late tonight into early Monday, but have lowered them to 10% in our central counties and gone with light shower/sprinkle wording for the most part. No appreciable rainfall amounts are anticipated and severe weather is not expected. On Monday the surface ridge will begin to drift off to our east, allowing for a return of light southerly flow. Modest ridging aloft, in wake of the overnight shortwave impulse, will cause any lingering showers to fade out by midday and lead to dry conditions Monday afternoon and evening. By sunset, the aforementioned larger 500 MB trough currently over Washington/British Columbia will have progressed to southeastern Saskatchewan, and will subsequently move east southeastward to near Lake Superior by Wednesday morning. As it does so, it will push a reflective surface trough southeastward through our region, crossing Iowa from late Tuesday through Tuesday night. Ahead of this surface trough, a period of modest forcing for ascent ahead of the 500 MB trough, concurrent with weak warm air/moisture advection in the low levels, supports a few showers and thunderstorms during the day Tuesday and have maintained 20% POPs accordingly. Around Tuesday evening, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the advancing surface trough closer to the 500 MB low, roughly near the Minnesota/Wisconsin border. In that region stronger instability and low-level convergence along the trough supports more robust updrafts and some severe weather potential, however, this is more in question heading southward down the trough into Iowa. The forcing associated with the parent low aloft will be weaker down here, and the surface boundary a bit more washed out with weaker low-level convergence. Forecast soundings also hint at possible capping in the afternoon and evening. As such, have held POPs low (again, 20%) in our northeastern counties and the SPC convective outlook keeps a Marginal Risk of severe weather just to the northeast of Iowa. However, we will be watching over the next couple days for any signs of southward expansion of that potential and of POPs in general. As the surface trough then sinks southeastward across our service area later Tuesday night, 20% POPs are maintained in that area to account for lingering showers and storms developing along it, but any severe weather potential would diminish even further overnight. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 108 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 By Wednesday the large 500 MB heat dome will remain in place over the southwestern/south central CONUS, while the trough described in the SHORT TERM section above moves away to our east. This will allow deep-layer ridging to reassert itself just to our west, leading to a period of dry, quiet, and seasonally mild weather with daily highs in the low to mid-80s for the remainder of the week. By Friday and Saturday the pattern will begin to shift a bit, as two large 500 MB lows develop over Canada and shunt the ridge southward, with the heat dome retrograding more over the far southwestern CONUS near Arizona and New Mexico. This will cause 500 MB flow over Iowa to become more zonal, with multiple shortwave impulses moving through the flow and providing several opportunities for thunderstorms from Friday or Saturday into early the following week. While the details of any such storms are very uncertain at this range, it is fair to say that overall the weather pattern will be more active by next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1046 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Confidence in patchy fog tonight is increasing at KOTM/KFOD, though still below 50% and will only be added with amendments as needed. Shower chances between 12z-18z still remain low and minimally impactful at 10-20% at KFOD/KDSM. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lee LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...De Bruin  230 FXUS65 KVEF 240352 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 900 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Hotter than normal temperatures will continue through the week. * Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms will linger through Monday for portions of our forecast area. && .DISCUSSION...through Saturday. Persistent ridging across the Desert Southwest will keep temperatures above normal through the week. Monday will be the "coolest" day of the week, with afternoon high temperatures topping out around 2 top 5 degrees above normal. Temperatures across the region will increase on Tuesday and Wednesday as we dry out. Across the Mojave Desert, temperatures will be around 4 to 7 degrees above normal through the second half of the week, with temperatures around 2 to 4 degrees above normal across the southern Great Basin and in the Owens Valley. The long duration of these anomalous temperatures will result in widespread Major-to- Extreme Heat Risk across the Mojave Desert during the latter half of the week with widespread Moderate Heat Risk across the southern Great Basin and Owens Valley. Current radar and satellite imagery show isolated showers and thunderstorms moving southwest to northeast through Mohave County and across the southern Great Basin. Storms will continue to develop on the higher terrain across northwestern Arizona and the southern Great Basin this afternoon, with the potential for isolated convection to pop up in the higher terrain of Clark County an the Mojave Preserve. Gusty outflow winds, localized downpours, and lightning are the main threats with today's storms. Overnight, moisture will increase across our southern and eastern zones. This additional moisture will help to fuel another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms for areas south and east of the I-15 corridor tomorrow. Beyond Monday, dry southwesterly flow aloft will cause moisture to decrease across the region through the end of the week. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light southwesterly winds are expected overnight with speeds remaining below 10 knots. For tomorrow, winds will favor a southeasterly direction under 10 knots in the late morning, shifting to the southwest in the afternoon with gusts over 20 knots possible. Gusty outflow winds from area thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon, particularly from the southeast. Any shower development will end prior to sunset. Temperatures exceed 100 degrees until 04Z this evening, then increase to above 100 degrees by 18Z tomorrow. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Breezy west winds will continue early this evening near KDAG with otherwise light winds elsewhere. A push of southeast winds may arrive early in the morning between 10-12z near KEED and KIFP, with some gusts to near 20 knots and patchy blowing dust. Isolated thunderstorms will be develop during the afternoon, primarily south and east of Interstate 15. Confidence is low in storms reaching any particular terminal - but gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stessman AVIATION...Meltzer/Outler For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  378 FXUS63 KEAX 240357 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1057 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...06z Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... * Showers with a few embedded lightning strikes expected tonight mainly west of a line from Lamoni- Moberly MO. Rainfall amounts are expected to be light totaling less than 0.25". * Temperatures warm to mid week ahead of a cold front moving through the region. * Breezy southerly winds expected next weekend, with the potential of showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Isentropic lift on the 305-310K surfaces is leading to weak shower activity building into the area from Nebraska and eastern KS. Very dry air in the subcloud layer (nearly 10K feet) is going to limit what reaches the ground, but could see a few sprinkles along the Missouri/KS state late through the afternoon into the early evening hours. Towards midnight, low level warm air/moisture advection leads to weak instability and could see spotty scattered showers develop. Instability remains quite weak with moist adiabatic lapse rates aloft, but still should be able to support weak showers with an embedded lightning strike here and there. 06Z NAM NEST hinted at the potential for heavy rainfall with this activity overnight, but successive model runs have contained precipitable water values to ~1.5" (which is near normal for this time of year). Expect accumulating precip to largely be west of a line from Lamoni Iowa to Moberly MO with surface high to the east limiting eastward extent of the precipitation shield. Low level warm air advection weakens after 12Z Monday and expect shower activity to weaken and shift southeast with time as short wave builds east. Partial clearing should allow for a decent temperature recovery on Monday, and even warmer conditions Tuesday into Wednesday as upper ridge across the west expands east. Ridge riding shortwave is expected to build into the Upper Midwest Wednesday, with trailing cold front moving through the region Wednesday morning. Could see a few showers and storms with the frontal passage, but timing may limit coverage. Surface ridge moves through the region on Thursday with stronger return flow Friday into next weekend. With the gulf wide open, ample moisture in place for showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1036 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions anticipated to prevail across the terminals through the period. Only notable change vs previous (00z) issuance is the removal of PROB30 showers at KSTJ with more recent guidance suggesting lesser chances. Otherwise, hi- res/CAM guidance continues to keep majority of overnight/morning scattered shower/storm activity to the W/SW of the terminals, allowing mentions to remain out of the TAFs. KC Metro terminals have seen winds organize more out of the E, while KSTJ remains light and variable at this time, but too will join the E/ESE prevailing direction overnight. Daytime sustained winds may approach 10kts, but remains out of the E to ESE. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...Curtis  366 FXUS63 KIWX 240357 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1157 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy prior to sunset with northwest wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph. - Dangerous swimming conditions through this evening on southern Lake Michigan with a High Swim Risk. - Seasonable temperatures and much lower humidity through Tuesday. - Next opportunity for rain and storms arrives Wednesday afternoon and evening (30-60% chance). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1241 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 We are getting a taste of fall today with clouds, showers, breezy conditions, and cooler temperatures! A low pressure system has departed the Upper Great Lakes region and is currently located over southern Ontario. Isolated lake enhanced showers can be seen on radar this afternoon as the system's attendant mid level trough pivots through northern Indiana. Northwest cyclonic flow and delta Ts of ~14C (water temps ~24C, 10C at 850mb tonight) over Lake Michigan should produce at least a weak lake enhanced response until sunset. In addition to showers, the deepening pressure gradient from the low pressure system off of our northeast will continue to generate gusty northwest winds throughout this afternoon and evening. Northwest winds will be sustained around 10 to 15 mph with gusts as high as 20 to 25 mph through sunset. Breezy conditions and CAA will keep highs only in the low 70s today, about 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Dangerous swimming conditions are ongoing for southeast Lake Michigan beaches and are expected to continue through this evening. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for La Porte and Berrien counties through 11 PM EDT tonight. There is a High Swim Risk today with northwest winds generating 3 to 5 ft waves. Strong rip and structural currents are also expected! If your weekend plans include heading to the beach this afternoon and evening, heed all warnings from lifeguards and stay out of the water! An area of high pressure located over the Midwest with build into the Great Lakes region early in the week. Much lower humidity and several days of seasonable temperatures will make for refreshing early fall-like days. Highs on Monday will be in the mid to upper 70s and highs on Tuesday will be around 80; it will be gradually warmer into midweek as the airmass overhead moderates. Clear skies and light winds overnight mean that several crisp mornings are ahead! Get the pumpkin spice lattes ready as lows Monday and Tuesday morning will only be in the low 50s! Wednesday is a bit warmer and humid with increasing chances for rain and storms. An upper level trough deepens over the Great Lakes and a surface cold front is expected to move through. There are have 30-60% chances for scattered rain and storms Wednesday, with the highest chances along and north of the US 30 corridor. This setup looks to be similar to the past few days where the vorticity maximum is located further north across Michigan so our area misses out on the most widespread rainfall. Instability appears decent but shear and lapse rates may be lacking. We will monitor in the coming days but at this time, severe weather and flooding risks are low. High pressure returns late in the week with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1155 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 High pressure settles over the Great Lakes this period and dry low levels will ensure VFR conditions. Expect just a SCT diurnal cu deck Monday afternoon with bases 4-5 kft. WNW winds gust up to 20 kts during peak afternoon mixing. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...AGDIWX-246689  368 FXUS63 KIWX 240357 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1157 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy prior to sunset with northwest wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph. - Dangerous swimming conditions through this evening on southern Lake Michigan with a High Swim Risk. - Seasonable temperatures and much lower humidity through Tuesday. - Next opportunity for rain and storms arrives Wednesday afternoon and evening (30-60% chance). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1241 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 We are getting a taste of fall today with clouds, showers, breezy conditions, and cooler temperatures! A low pressure system has departed the Upper Great Lakes region and is currently located over southern Ontario. Isolated lake enhanced showers can be seen on radar this afternoon as the system's attendant mid level trough pivots through northern Indiana. Northwest cyclonic flow and delta Ts of ~14C (water temps ~24C, 10C at 850mb tonight) over Lake Michigan should produce at least a weak lake enhanced response until sunset. In addition to showers, the deepening pressure gradient from the low pressure system off of our northeast will continue to generate gusty northwest winds throughout this afternoon and evening. Northwest winds will be sustained around 10 to 15 mph with gusts as high as 20 to 25 mph through sunset. Breezy conditions and CAA will keep highs only in the low 70s today, about 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Dangerous swimming conditions are ongoing for southeast Lake Michigan beaches and are expected to continue through this evening. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for La Porte and Berrien counties through 11 PM EDT tonight. There is a High Swim Risk today with northwest winds generating 3 to 5 ft waves. Strong rip and structural currents are also expected! If your weekend plans include heading to the beach this afternoon and evening, heed all warnings from lifeguards and stay out of the water! An area of high pressure located over the Midwest with build into the Great Lakes region early in the week. Much lower humidity and several days of seasonable temperatures will make for refreshing early fall-like days. Highs on Monday will be in the mid to upper 70s and highs on Tuesday will be around 80; it will be gradually warmer into midweek as the airmass overhead moderates. Clear skies and light winds overnight mean that several crisp mornings are ahead! Get the pumpkin spice lattes ready as lows Monday and Tuesday morning will only be in the low 50s! Wednesday is a bit warmer and humid with increasing chances for rain and storms. An upper level trough deepens over the Great Lakes and a surface cold front is expected to move through. There are have 30-60% chances for scattered rain and storms Wednesday, with the highest chances along and north of the US 30 corridor. This setup looks to be similar to the past few days where the vorticity maximum is located further north across Michigan so our area misses out on the most widespread rainfall. Instability appears decent but shear and lapse rates may be lacking. We will monitor in the coming days but at this time, severe weather and flooding risks are low. High pressure returns late in the week with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1155 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 High pressure settles over the Great Lakes this period and dry low levels will ensure VFR conditions. Expect just a SCT diurnal cu deck Monday afternoon with bases 4-5 kft. WNW winds gust up to 20 kts during peak afternoon mixing. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...AGD