515 FXUS63 KIND 240200 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1000 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Milder and less humid through Tuesday - Scattered showers/storms possible Wednesday evening to Thursday && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 1000 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Near carbon copy of past couple nights on tap for central Indiana, despite slightly lower readings and dewpoints as center of southern Canada surface high pressure builds into the Midwest. Winds to become light and variable if not calm by pre-dawn hours...with mostly clear skies promoting patchy fog by dawn...and low temperatures in the 50s across the entire region, including 57F inside I-465. && .DISCUSSION (This Evening through Sunday)... Issued at 142 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A progressively drier trend than the last couple weeks continues through much of the upcoming week as high pressure resides over the Ohio Valley for much of the forecast period. Deep upper level ridging will remain tethered for the next several days over the Intermountain West with a largely dry northwest flow over the region. The passage of a cold front late Wednesday into Thursday will present the primary convective risk until the latter part of next weekend. Rest of This Afternoon through Tuesday Night Diurnal cu development has increased with heating as temperatures warm through the 70s. Satellite shows more enhanced cu over the Great Lakes extending south into northern Indiana with a few showers near KFWA in response to the double barreled upper low pinwheeling over Ontario. A piece of energy dropping south on the back side of upper low will pivot across lower Michigan and Lake Erie later this afternoon into the evening and may provide just enough lift in tandem with the steep lapse rates and weakly unstable airmass present to generate stray showers over northeast counties into the early evening. This would be similar to what took place Saturday evening but with lower instability levels limiting the coverage and intensity of any showers. Most will remain dry but any location that gets under a small shower may see a very quick downpour. High pressure will fully settle over the Ohio Valley tonight through much of the first half of the week with quiet weather and abundant sunshine anticipated. Low level thermals support cooler than normal temperatures through Tuesday with highs generally ranging from the mid 70s northeast to the lower 80s in the lower Wabash Valley. Lows will be very comfortable in the 50s the next two nights before return flow Tuesday night nudges lows back up into the low to mid 60s for most of the forecast area. Really cannot ask for a better next 60 hours or so for the region...much deserved after the very active and wet last few weeks. Wednesday through Sunday A weakening upper level low riding overtop of the western ridge will drop into the upper Midwest early Wednesday before becoming absorbed by a broader long wave trough that will amplify across the eastern half of the country for late week. Low pressure and an associated cold front running in tandem with the upper wave will track across the Ohio Valley Wednesday night and early Thursday in a progressively weakened condition as stronger forcing aloft is lost. There will be enough moisture and instability along and immediately ahead of the frontal boundary for scattered convection with the front clearing the forecast area during the day Thursday. High pressure will reestablish in the wake of the frontal passage drifting slowly east through the Great Lakes into Saturday. This bring another multi day stretch of dry weather with seasonable temperatures as highs will focus largely in the low to mid 80s. The ridge will flatten to the west over the weekend opening the possibility for convection to impact the region by late weekend into early next week as multiple waves ride along in the predominantly zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will also rise back into the mid and upper 80s by the end of the forecast period with an uptick in humidity levels. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 728 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Impacts: MVFR in fog possible at outlying terminals 08Z-13Z Discussion: Mainly VFR conditions to continue across central Indiana through Monday evening as Canadian surface high pressure crosses the Midwest. Light northwest breezes early this evening will diminish by 01Z-02Z. Fog/BR is possible at the outlying sites again within 08Z-13Z Monday. Overall light if not variable flow through the remainder of the TAF period...excepting northwest winds sustained up to 3-8KT Monday afternoon and early evening. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ UPDATE...AGM AVIATION...AGM DISCUSSION...Ryan  960 FXUS63 KFSD 240208 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 908 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms should be a bit more widespread late tonight into early tomorrow morning (50-70%). Locally heavy rain and a very isolated severe storm are possible. - Monday evening and night could see an isolated severe storm, with the better chances in central SD and also near highway 14. - Otherwise most days through next week will see highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 902 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A weak area of convergence extending from roughly Ivanhoe, MN to Spirit Lake, IA may produce a sprinkle of two this evening, but the main area to watch will be in south-central South Dakota after midnight when the low level jet cranks up to around 30- 35 kts and helps develop showers and storms. Elevated instability values have trended up for tonight; however, the layers with access to the most CAPE will have less shear to work with and this imbalance will limit any severe weather potential. With the LLJ in place and drifting eastward, additional showers and storms will develop, increasing competition between updrafts which will also help limit the severe potential. Not to mention instability and shear will also be further decreasing as showers and storms move east-southeast into the early morning hours. All that to say, the only reasonable window for a storm to perhaps produce quarter-sized hail will be the initial development around 1-2 am in Gregory County, with any severe threat rapidly diminishing as new showers/storms develop and push east-southeast. Timing for shower and storms have also shifted a bit later in the latest guidance, with activity likely not reaching the I-29 corridor until closer to 5 am and the heavier showers now not pushing south of the area until closer to the 7-9 am time frame. Locally heavy rainfall is expected with any storms given high PWATs pushing 1.75+" but activity should be progressive enough to preclude any flooding concerns. A few pockets of 1-1.25" of rain will be possible where the strongest storms move over with very low chances (<5%) of a spot picking up 2" if a multiple storms go over an area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A pair of waves are affecting the area, or nearby, today. The first is moving southeast through Nebraska and is keeping any instability to the south and west bottled up. Model soundings not hinting at a whole lot of activity this afternoon, with a fairly dry and stable air mass in place. Tonight a second wave will pass by to the north and will swing a little bit of mid level moisture into the area. As this moisture moves in, some weak elevated instability, likely 500-750 J/kg CAPE develops. This will support some scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity, but for now severe weather looks unlikely. A few pockets of heavier rain are also possible, but also trending downward. Monday will see temperatures warm a bit with humidity likely to increase as well. This is in response to strengthening southerly flow as a stronger wave moves east along the Canadian border. This will increase instability, especially to the northwest of the area, and should bring scattered thunderstorms to parts of central SD and near the highway 14 corridor. With the potential for about 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE and decent unidirectional shear, and isolated severe storm will be possible in these locations. One area to watch will be near northwest IA late Monday afternoon and evening where there are some hints the cap could weaken a bit as elevated moisture advection bring some instability to that area. Low confidence, but something to monitor. Northwest flow aloft Tuesday into the weekend will keep seasonally warm temperatures in place with highs in the 80s and lows from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Starting to see a little more consistency on the next better chance for showers and thunderstorms on Friday. The latest Canadian, GEFS and EC ensembles all indicate about a 30-5- percent chance for a tenth of an inch or more of precipitation. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 647 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Scattered showers and storms look to develop late tonight, favoring areas near and south of I-90 through daybreak Monday. Confidence remains fairly low as to whether or not this activity hits KFSD and KSUX or remains just south and west of the sites, but still kept the PROB30 groups with some adjustments to timing, notably a later possible arrival time for KSUX. Winds will generally remain southeasterly through the period while staying moderately breezy. Winds will be sustained around 8-12 kts through the period with occasional gusts to around 20 kts this evening and again during the day Monday. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Samet DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...Samet  401 FXZS60 NSTU 240212 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 312 PM SST Sun Aug 23 2026 .Short term... TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...Satellite shows Scattered tradewind showers passing across the islands. North of Swains sits a low level convergences with showers embedded within. A strong high pressure to the far southwest will continue to hold strong tradewinds tonight through Monday night. A weak trough will develop south of the islands on Tuesday and this will slightly diminish winds to breezy flow through Tuesday night. Showers will remain at scattered with the strong trades. As the winds slightly diminish, showers will decrease to isolated on Tuesday. .Long term... WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...The weak trough to the south will dissipate and trades will again increase across the islands on Wednesday night. Showers are expected to also increase to numerous through Friday night. As the high pressure continues farther east, trades will finally diminish to breezy flow on Saturday before shifting to gentle east flow on Sunday. Showers are expected to remain at scattered after Friday night. && .Marine... Aunuu buoy shows seas of 8 to 10 feet. No significant swells are expected to pass across the islands through Friday. Wind generated seas of 8 to 10 feet will slightly subside 7 to 9 feet on Monday. As trades diminish, seas will also subside 6 to 8 feet on Tuesday through Wednesday. With the high pressure elevating trades again on Wednesday night, seas will build 7 to 9 feet reaching 8 to 10 feet on Thursday night. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory remains in effect Small Craft Advisory remains in effect && $$  585 FXUS62 KKEY 240217 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1017 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Conditions remain somewhat favorable for an island cloud line and associated waterspouts tomorrow afternoon. - Rain and thunder chances will gradually return to near normal by the early to middle part of the week. - Highs near 90 and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s suggest afternoon heat indices will peak at 105 to 108 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1016 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Weather across the Keys this afternoon proved more eventful than Saturday. A thunderstorm complex formed just north of the Lower Keys out of a couple cumulus streams late in the afternoon. The outflow boundaries created by these showers initiated another sequence of thunderstorms, one north of Marathon and the other just off Key West. The problem is that the broad col region that defined weather across the Keys for the past few days was still present. All the thunderstorm complexes this afternoon and evening were nearly stationary. This resulted in some very high MRMS estimates north of the island chain, from 1.5 to 1.8 inches in 3 hours. Accumulations of 0.5 to 0.9 were estimated over the northernmost parts of Big Pine Key, Big Torch Key, Cudjoe Key, and Upper Sugarloaf Key. Sunset marks the downward trend in shower activity. The KKEY 00Z sounding was released shortly after showers dissipated. The balloon sampled an environment with nearly 2 inches of PWAT and quite a bit of inhibition. A similar environment can be inferred north of Marathon and the Lower Keys. Satellite observations, such as the CIMSS MIMIC TPW derivations, estimated lower PWAT values, between 1.6 and 1.8 over the Keys waters. More moisture is slowly moving into the Keys. However, moisture alone will not set off additional showers and the environment near the Keys has become somewhat stabilized. Convective models suggest the most likely time showers would form again around the Keys would be near sunrise. Considering PoPs for the rest of the night are near 10%, opting to leave the forecast alone. TROPICS: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor 2 areas across the Atlantic Ocean with none of these systems currently posing a threat to the Keys. The area across the Eastern Tropical Atlantic has a low or near 0 percent chance of formation over 48 hours with a medium or 50% chance of development over the next 7 days. && .MARINE... Issued at 1016 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a split ridge pattern remains in place across the Florida Keys coastal waters. East to southeast breezes will become more established from late tonight through Thursday, becoming generally gentle, at times moderate during the overnight hours, as North Atlantic ridging builds westward. Shower chances will gradually increase to near normal values by early to mid week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1016 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 SHRA near EYW were sufficient to require VCTS for the first hour of the TAF period. However, SHRA collapsed shortly after sunset, and VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the rest of the TAF period. Variable winds are on track to stabilize as light east to southeasterlies before sunrise. There is a chance that SHRA may form north of the terminals before sunrise, but confidence is not high enough to include VCSH in the TAFs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 84 91 84 91 / 10 10 10 30 Marathon 83 91 82 91 / 10 10 20 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest  127 FXUS64 KOUN 240231 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 931 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 926 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Excessive heat continues into early next week. - Strong to severe storms are possible Monday morning across north central Oklahoma and along the I-40 corridor Monday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts are the main hazard. - Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas Monday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Hot and humid conditions are ongoing across Oklahoma and north Texas this afternoon with the most dangerous heat across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon. A few high-based thunderstorms may develop across the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles this afternoon with a chance that the remnants of the activity will move into northwest Oklahoma this evening. For tonight, increasing isentropic ascent/warm air advection associated with the low-level jet will result in showers and thunderstorms developing across Kansas, Missouri, and northeast Oklahoma after midnight. The I-35 corridor in Oklahoma will on the southwest/western periphery of the strongest ascent with the potential for isolated development as far southwest as south central Oklahoma. Strong to low-end severe thunderstorms are possible, especially across north central Oklahoma. Mahale && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A surface low and attendant cold front will advance southeast into Oklahoma on Monday. The location of the cold front/surface low could be impacted by the morning showers and thunderstorms and whether convective outflow, post-frontal clouds, and/or rain advance the effective cold front farther to the south. The cold front will likely be very close to the I-40 corridor with the potential for a sharp north-to-south temperature gradient somewhere in that zone. For example, the most aggressive model with the cold front is the 12Z NAM with abundant post-frontal cloud cover. As a result, it has a high temperature of 96 deg F in Oklahoma City. In contrast, the National Blend of Models (NBM) has 108 deg F with Oklahoma City in the pre-frontal torch ahead of the front. For those who live in north central Oklahoma (i.e., near Ponca City), we have high confidence that you will be on the cooler side of the front. If you live in western north Texas, (i.e., near Wichita Falls, Seymour, Vernon, Knox City, etc.), we have high confidence you will be on the hot side of the front. It is the middle/I-40 corridor where uncertainty is the highest. Given the uncertainty on the exact location of the cold front, we opted to keep the location for the Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory relatively small for tomorrow afternoon. For now, we issued an Extreme Heat Warning across all of western north Texas into parts of southwest Oklahoma. To the north of Extreme Heat Warning, we issued a Heat Advisory for a row or two of counties. These are the locations that we have the highest confidence to meet Heat Advisory and/or Extreme Heat Warning criteria. We may have to expand both products farther north depending on the location of the cold front tomorrow. There is the potential for isolated thunderstorms along the cold front tomorrow afternoon. Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing strong to wind gusts from downbursts given the very hot conditions ahead of the front. With the veered low-level flow and very hot temperatures ahead of the cold front tomorrow, relative humidity values are forecast to fall to around 15 to 20% across southwest Oklahoma intowestern north Texas. This will result in elevated fire weather conditions to perhaps locally near-critical fire weather conditions (depending on the winds). With the ongoing drought and very dry fuels, the total fire environment (weather + fuels) will be susceptible to at least initial attack fires. Therefore, at the very least, a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) will be needed once again tomorrow. A Red Flag Warning (RFW) could be needed if there is a corridor of higher fire weather conditions. One area that will have to be monitored carefully is near the location of the cold front, where there will be a wind shift and the potential for isolated thunderstorms that would pose a threat for gusty/erratic winds and dry lightning. For Tuesday, there will likely still be a north-to-south temperature gradient with the cold front likely stalling in the area. The hottest temperatures will continue to be across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas with less hot conditions across northern Oklahoma. By Tuesday night, a complex of thunderstorms is expected to approach from the northwest. The remnants of this complex may produce a threat for strong to severe wind gusts across northwest Oklahoma. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 As the second shortwave moves across the area on Wednesday, not out of the question to see a few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms. Latest medium range model runs of both the GFS and ECMWF show the upper ridge drifting further southwest as we go through the second half of the upcoming week. This will allow modest northwest flow to continue through the end of the week and possibly into the weekend with periodic shortwave troughs traversing the Southern Plains and at least some rain chances continue. With this retrogression of the upper ridge, it should allow temperatures to cool from the peak of the heating that will be see earlier in the week. However, it still appears that above normal temperatures will continue. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 926 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR ceilings with mid/high clouds. A front and sfc low are expected to move into parts of the area Monday which will affect the winds but in general SW to W winds are expected ahead of the front with mainly N to NE winds behind the front. Scattered showers/storms moving across the Panhandles may move into parts of NW OK overnight and may affect KWWR. Scattered showers/storms are also expected to develop overnight/early Monday in parts of north central OK. There is then a third chance for showers/storms Monday afternoon/evening for areas generally along and south of the front. Chances are currently too low in some areas for mention in TAFs. There is also uncertainty with the position of the front/sfc low Monday afternoon. If storms develop Monday afternoon/evening, strong, variable winds will be possible with some of the storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 78 105 77 102 / 10 20 20 10 Hobart OK 80 111 77 106 / 0 20 20 10 Wichita Falls TX 82 111 81 109 / 0 0 10 10 Gage OK 75 100 71 99 / 20 0 20 10 Ponca City OK 72 96 72 96 / 30 10 0 10 Durant OK 79 108 79 107 / 0 10 20 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ033-036- 037-044-045. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ034-035-038- 039-041-046>048-050>052. TX...Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...10 SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...25  236 FXUS64 KOUN 240234 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 934 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 933 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Excessive heat continues into early next week. - Strong to severe storms are possible Monday morning across north central Oklahoma and along the I-40 corridor Monday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts are the main hazard. - Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas Monday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Hot and humid conditions are ongoing across Oklahoma and north Texas this afternoon with the most dangerous heat across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon. A few high-based thunderstorms may develop across the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles this afternoon with a chance that the remnants of the activity will move into northwest Oklahoma this evening. For tonight, increasing isentropic ascent/warm air advection associated with the low-level jet will result in showers and thunderstorms developing across Kansas, Missouri, and northeast Oklahoma after midnight. The I-35 corridor in Oklahoma will on the southwest/western periphery of the strongest ascent with the potential for isolated development as far southwest as south central Oklahoma. Strong to low-end severe thunderstorms are possible, especially across north central Oklahoma. Mahale && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A surface low and attendant cold front will advance southeast into Oklahoma on Monday. The location of the cold front/surface low could be impacted by the morning showers and thunderstorms and whether convective outflow, post-frontal clouds, and/or rain advance the effective cold front farther to the south. The cold front will likely be very close to the I-40 corridor with the potential for a sharp north-to-south temperature gradient somewhere in that zone. For example, the most aggressive model with the cold front is the 12Z NAM with abundant post-frontal cloud cover. As a result, it has a high temperature of 96 deg F in Oklahoma City. In contrast, the National Blend of Models (NBM) has 108 deg F with Oklahoma City in the pre-frontal torch ahead of the front. For those who live in north central Oklahoma (i.e., near Ponca City), we have high confidence that you will be on the cooler side of the front. If you live in western north Texas, (i.e., near Wichita Falls, Seymour, Vernon, Knox City, etc.), we have high confidence you will be on the hot side of the front. It is the middle/I-40 corridor where uncertainty is the highest. Given the uncertainty on the exact location of the cold front, we opted to keep the location for the Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory relatively small for tomorrow afternoon. For now, we issued an Extreme Heat Warning across all of western north Texas into parts of southwest Oklahoma. To the north of Extreme Heat Warning, we issued a Heat Advisory for a row or two of counties. These are the locations that we have the highest confidence to meet Heat Advisory and/or Extreme Heat Warning criteria. We may have to expand both products farther north depending on the location of the cold front tomorrow. There is the potential for isolated thunderstorms along the cold front tomorrow afternoon. Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing strong to wind gusts from downbursts given the very hot conditions ahead of the front. With the veered low-level flow and very hot temperatures ahead of the cold front tomorrow, relative humidity values are forecast to fall to around 15 to 20% across southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas. This will result in elevated fire weather conditions to perhaps locally near-critical fire weather conditions (depending on the winds). With the ongoing drought and very dry fuels, the total fire environment (weather + fuels) will be susceptible to at least initial attack fires. Therefore, at the very least, a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) will be needed once again tomorrow. A Red Flag Warning (RFW) could be needed if there is a corridor of higher fire weather conditions. One area that will have to be monitored carefully is near the location of the cold front, where there will be a wind shift and the potential for isolated thunderstorms that would pose a threat for gusty/erratic winds and dry lightning. For Tuesday, there will likely still be a north-to-south temperature gradient with the cold front likely stalling in the area. The hottest temperatures will continue to be across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas with less hot conditions across northern Oklahoma. By Tuesday night, a complex of thunderstorms is expected to approach from the northwest. The remnants of this complex may produce a threat for strong to severe wind gusts across northwest Oklahoma. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 As the second shortwave moves across the area on Wednesday, not out of the question to see a few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms. Latest medium range model runs of both the GFS and ECMWF show the upper ridge drifting further southwest as we go through the second half of the upcoming week. This will allow modest northwest flow to continue through the end of the week and possibly into the weekend with periodic shortwave troughs traversing the Southern Plains and at least some rain chances continue. With this retrogression of the upper ridge, it should allow temperatures to cool from the peak of the heating that will be see earlier in the week. However, it still appears that above normal temperatures will continue. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 933 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR ceilings with mid/high clouds. A front and sfc low are expected to move into parts of the area Monday which will affect the winds but in general SW to W winds are expected ahead of the front with mainly N to NE winds behind the front. Scattered showers/storms moving across the Panhandles may move into parts of NW OK overnight and may affect KWWR. Scattered showers/storms are also expected to develop overnight/early Monday in parts of north central OK. There is then a third chance for showers/storms Monday afternoon/evening for areas generally along and south of the front. Chances are currently too low in some areas for mention in TAFs. There is also uncertainty with the position of the front/sfc low Monday afternoon although right now it looks like it could be somewhere near the I-40 corridor. If storms develop Monday afternoon/evening, strong, variable winds will be possible with some of the storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 78 105 77 102 / 10 20 20 10 Hobart OK 80 111 77 106 / 0 20 20 10 Wichita Falls TX 82 111 81 109 / 0 0 10 10 Gage OK 75 100 71 99 / 20 0 20 10 Ponca City OK 72 96 72 96 / 30 10 0 10 Durant OK 79 108 79 107 / 0 10 20 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ033-036- 037-044-045. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ034-035-038- 039-041-046>048-050>052. TX...Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...10 SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...25  487 FXUS63 KBIS 240242 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 942 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated severe thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon and evening primarily over central and eastern North Dakota. Potential hazards include large hail up to 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds up to 70 mph, but still some question if thunderstorms can develop. - Near-critical fire weather conditions expected over parts of western North Dakota on Monday, and the far southwest on Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 942 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The strong to severe thunderstorm threat has ended over the watch area, therefore canceled the remainder of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch that was in effect south and west of the Missouri River. Showers and a few thunderstorms remain mainly over parts of north central North Dakota with the most organized storm in Sheridan County. This storm currently remains sub-severe and should be entering a lower shear environment as it heads east. Therefore, it seems unlikely it would intensify to severe levels, though will continue to monitor should it latch onto something unexpected. Otherwise, there is also a line of thunderstorms in far northeastern Montana that may enter far northwestern North Dakota in a couple hours. Uncertainty remains both in regard to whether or not they will hold together, and if so, whether or not they remain strong to severe as they enter the state. UPDATE Issued at 647 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Thunderstorms, with some being severe with large hail, continue to push through southwest North Dakota over the area with the greatest instability and deep layer shear. Severe threat will continue through the mid-evening hours as storms push east, but as they move into a lower sheared and more stable environment as they approach the Missouri River, expect intensity to wane. Storms also stretch off into north central North Dakota, with the storms in that area producing some higher rainfall amounts, and also earlier produced a strong wind gust at Minot Air Force Base. Expect the wind threat has diminished, but elevated rainfall amounts remain possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Current surface analysis places trough stretching from western Saskatchewan through eastern Montana/Wyoming, with high over the midwest. Upper level analysis places high over New Mexico, with ridge stretching northward to the lee of the Rockies into the Plains. Over our area, low level moisture continues to be on the increase with south-southeasterly low level flow between the two aforementioned surface features. A line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms continues to slide through western North Dakota affiliated with a short wave trough noted in the flow. For the rest of this afternoon into this evening, a tricky forecast is on tap as some variables remain in play. It has been well advertised that with the returning moisture we will have an unstable atmosphere in place, particularly over southwest into south central North Dakota where CAPE values are already in excess of 2000 J/Kg at this time over a broad part of the area, and that plenty of deep layer shear in in place (40-50 kts 0-6km) to support rotating updrafts. With that said, the flies in the ointment continue to be rather modest forcing, along with forecast soundings showing a cap that may be difficult to overcome. Latest short term guidance continues to show a variety of solutions ranging from some light showers/a few weak storms to a variety of severe over the southwest and south central, possible nudging northward. So, the severe threat will remain conditional, but if a storm or storms were able to get going in earnest, large hail and damaging wind gusts remain a concern given the aforementioned shear/instability. A secondary wave pushes in from Montana later tonight, which may lead to some additional elevated storms, which would move through overnight. On Monday, surface trough to the west pushes over western North Dakota in the morning, into central North Dakota before stalling mid-day. Behind the trough, drier air will move in with breezy conditions developing, which will lead to some near-critical fire weather conditions over the far west. Ahead of the trough, moist air remains in place. CAPE values will again be elevated over this area, along with similar deep layer shear as today. Again, though, the threat remains conditional as to whether enough forcing will be in place in order for storms to develop. On Tuesday, quiet weather is expected as the ridge axis re- focuses over the Rockies, though a compact low/short wave will zip through southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba which may lead to a few showers or possibly a thunderstorm around the Turtle Mountains region. Northwest winds will be on the increase as the surface low with this system moves east through Manitoba into Ontario. Upper ridge gradually meanders east resulting in quiet weather for us through Thursday before a few weak waves move through the ridge, bringing some low precipitation chances to end the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 647 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Thunderstorms will spread from west to east this evening. A few severe storms with large hail or damaging wind gusts will be remain possible this evening, mainly over southwest and south central North Dakota, though some higher wind gusts also remain possible over north central North Dakota. Additional storms may enter western North Dakota from Montana later tonight pushing east into Monday morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms then possible Monday afternoon, mainly over central North Dakota into the James River Valley. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Telken DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...JJS  483 FXUS63 KGRB 240242 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 942 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry through Monday, with rain chances (50-80%) Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. The risk of widespread severe weather is low. - Chilly with lows into the 30s north-central WI tonight. Otherwise temperatures most of this week will be near or slightly above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Near term through Monday...NW flow persists to the west of deep troughing over the central and eastern Great Lakes. Cooler air aloft the warmer lakes and daytime heating will result in blossoming cu this afternoon. Moisture appears too shallow to conjure up any showers, though a few sprinkles could occur. Northern Door most favored for those. Northwest winds will be gusty again this afternoon, but will back off quickly this evening. As winds become light and skies clear, temps will drop quickly, with mid 30s in favored cold spots of north-central WI, low-mid 40s central WI into far northeast WI, and upper 40s to near 50 from the Fox Valley to the lakeshore. Some very patchy ground fog will be possible late tonight into Monday morning, especially across central and northern WI. It could be cool enough for sheltered areas in the far north to see some brief patchy frost late tonight. Mostly sunny on Monday with light winds. Showers and some storms Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening...Sharp shortwave trough with cold front drop into northern MN Tuesday afternoon before shifting across WI and MI through Wednesday. Pooling instability along the front late Tuesday may allow a small severe risk into far northwest portions of cwa very late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Various ML sources point to this, but even so, stronger signal stays farther into northwest WI and northern MN. That said, showers and storms will probably not completely die off later Tuesday night as they move east given a persistent LLJ and some elevated instability with the stronger system. Does appear that models are coming into better agreement with faster fropa on Wednesday, pushing the primary severe risk farther east. Enough cool air aloft with the trough to result in chance pops northeast and eastern WI through peak heating on Wednesday. Thus, suppose an isolated strong to severe storm is not off the table. Chances for showers and storms on Thursday have decreased as core of upper trough and cooler air aloft has shifted farther north. Pops for Thursday now sitting at less than 10 percent. Extended...Next chances for showers and storms (20-40%) eases back into the area from the southwest for the weekend as flow aloft becomes more zonal. Early look, but signal for greatest instability and severe/heavy rain potential remains southwest plains to the upper mississippi river valley. Temperatures...After the chilly conditions tonight, temperatures the rest of the week look to be near normal or slightly above normal. Warmest days with highs in the low-mid 80s would be Tuesday and/or Wednesday ahead of and near the frontal boundary moving through. Warmest night in the 60s much of the area will be Tuesday night with clouds, showers and some wind. Lows could drop back into the 40s again late this week over the north. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 941 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 No significant changes to the previous forecast. Other than patchy ground fog for central and north-central WI late tonight, plan on VFR conditions through the TAF period. Mainly clear skies are expected into Monday morning. Less fair weather clouds are expected on Monday, but will likely see coverage in the few-sct range, highest over eastern WI. Cloud bases will likely remain above 5-6 kft. With high pressure centered across the region, winds on Monday will be light, topping out at 5 to 10 kts during the afternoon. Light winds expected to continue on Monday night. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....JLA AVIATION.......MPC  519 FXUS66 KSEW 240243 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 742 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough will exit Western Washington tonight. Drier and warmer weather Monday and Tuesday as an upper level ridge builds over the Pacific Northwest. An upper level low will approach the area around midweek, bringing increasing onshore flow and cooler temperatures to Western Washington for the second half of the week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The upper level trough continues its way out of the area this evening with partly cloudy skies still present east of the Sound while generally mostly cloudy conditions exist over much of the Olympic Peninsula. While locations along the I-5 corridor are still in the upper 60s to low 70s, the remainder of the area has already cooled into the lower 60s to upper 50s. Quiet conditions overall with inherited forecast on track. No evening updates anticipated. For additional forecast details, please refer to the Previous Discussion section below. 18 From Previous Discussion...An upper level trough continues to push across Washington this afternoon. Partly cloudy skies this afternoon with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s across the interior and mid 60s along the coast. An upper level ridge will build over the Pacific Northwest on Monday, with the ridge axis east of the Cascades on Tuesday. This will bring warmer and drier conditions. The warmest day will be Tuesday. High temperatures are expected to peak in the mid 60s/low 70s along the coast. Across the interior, temperatures will climb into the 80s and low 90s in the Cascade valleys. This will reintroduce widespread areas of Moderate HeatRisk for the Everret-Seattle-Tacoma Metro and Cascade valleys. Additionally, surface flow will transition more northerly to easterly Monday and Tuesday, resulting in wildfire smoke being transported from nearby fires in British Columbia and Eastern Washington into Western Washington. 29 && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... There is good agreement between ensemble guidance that an upper level low will approach the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday and an upper level trough will settle over the region through late in the week. This pattern will reinstate onshore flow across Western Washington and bring cooler temperatures. Latest guidance has high temperatures trending slightly below normal in the the low to mid 60 along the coast and low to mid 70s across the interior. Low temperatures by the end of the week will trend towards the low to mid 50s. Chances for precipitation look to return on Wednesday and continue into the weekend. However, the latest QPF amounts indicate precipitation will be light. While thunderstorm chances remain at 10% or less, they could be a possibility on Wednesday and Thursday as the upper level low swings north into British Columbia and brings southwesterly flow aloft over Western Washington. 29 && .AVIATION... An upper ridge begins to build into the area tonight through Monday, which will result in westerly flow aloft becoming southwest on Monday. VFR cigs this evening as cloud coverage dissipates in the interior. LIFR stratus will develop along the coast tonight. LIFR cigs are also expected across the Strait of Juan de Fuca by early Monday. There remains uncertainty exists as to the extent of stratus around central Puget Sound Monday AM. but KPAE has the highest likelihood of seeing lower ceilings/visibilities in the morning. Can't also rule out patchy fog in low valleys with the clear skies/weak north gradients. Otherwise, mainly VFR elsewhere with a few high clouds on Monday with haze increasing aloft late Monday with more of an E flow in the mid levels. Winds at the surface will transition more north this evening, increasing from the north Monday afternoon. KSEA...VFR cigs this evening with clearing skies. LIFR stratus will push inland along the Strait of Juan de Fuca into early Monday, but the likelihood of it reaching KSEA remains at 10% between 13-17z, as model solutions have it getting stopped at KPAE. Winds remain N to NE tonight at 5 to 9 kts, and into Monday. JD/HPR && .MARINE... High pressure continues to build over the Coastal Waters today and will remain in place through Tuesday. North winds will increase on Monday, particularly for the Coastal Waters and Puget Sound. Will need to monitor for SCA wind gusts late Monday afternoon through Monday evening for the Coastal Waters, with current probabilities of SCA gusts around 40 to 70 percent during this period. Onshore flow then increase Tuesday night through Wednesday as a weak frontal system moves across the waters midweek. This may result in SCA west winds through the Strait of Juan de Fuca beginning Tuesday night. Onshore flow then continues late in the week. Seas around 3 to 5 feet may briefly peak towards 7 feet for the southern Coastal Waters late Monday with increasing north winds. This may lead to brief choppy waters with a period around 6 seconds. Otherwise, 4 to 5 foot seas are expected Tuesday through much of the week. JD && .FIRE WEATHER... Guidance is in lock-step regarding a ridge building into the region on Monday into Tuesday. A thermal trough will also snake along the coast during this time, leading to a warm-up and drier conditions as light offshore flow develops. Isolated areas of min RHs reaching near critical thresholds are possible during this time in the Cascades. Onshore flow then returns Tuesday night into Wednesday as another upper-trough enters the region. Showers as well as the chances for more thunderstorms are possible around the midweek timeframe. Less certainty in how the pattern will evolve towards the second half of the week. Solutions are hinting at an upper-trough swinging a pair of upper-lows into the region but there is disagreement in exact timing and track. Nonetheless, below normal temperatures, onshore flow and the potential for precipitation appears to be in the offing towards the weekend. 41 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...None. && $$  909 FXUS63 KJKL 240255 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1055 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Noticeably less humid air will continue to prevail early this week, with below normal morning lows. - Temperatures and humidity will increase Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the next cold front, leading to a potential for thunderstorms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1055 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Only minor tweaks were made again for sky cover overnight and near term temperatures based on obs. UPDATE Issued at 754 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Have made minor adjustments in the sky forecast for a patch of cirrus streaming through this evening, and for temps for an initial quick drop in eastern valley readings early this evening. The update has little impact on the night as a whole. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 419 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Largely stacked low pressure just north of the Great Lakes late today will weaken and lift northeast through Monday night. Meanwhile, surface high pressure currently over the mid Mississippi Valley will drift to the Ohio Valley. As this happens, our current inflow of cooler and drier low level air around the high will ease and our upper level flow upstream will flatten. Even though cool/dry advection will taper off, air mass modification will hold off during the short term, which will afford us below normal lows both nights. The flattening upper level flow may allow some high clouds to spill through upstream ridging Monday night, but any clouds in our skies shouldn't have much impact on our temperatures. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 323 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 The long term period begins Tuesday with a subtropical ridge and closed 500 mb high ranging from 594-597 dm centered over the Four Corners region. Elsewhere, an upper-level trough is modeled across the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and New England. Across eastern Kentucky, Tuesday will be fair and quiet with dew points in the 50s, and temperatures in the mid 80s feeling a bit less humid compared to previous days. Overnight, light winds and clear skies may aid in patchy valley fog developing in typical favored river valley locations. With valleys possibly decoupling at night, temperatures in the valleys may cool into the mid to upper 50s, while ridgetops cool into the upper 50s to low 60s, Tuesday night. An upper low modeled over southern Manitoba will progress southeast overnight, ending up in the Upper Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. A surface low will also form in the Great Lakes vicinity. Some high and mid-level clouds may work into the area through Wednesday in advance of the approaching system. By Wednesday evening, as a surface cold front extends from the Great Lakes southwestward through the Ohio Valley and Ozarks, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Wednesday night into Thursday, peaking Thursday ahead of the frontal passage. By Friday, the cold front is expected to have passed east of the Commonwealth, with the trough axis shifting east of the forecast area Friday into Saturday, leaving broad troughing across the eastern US. Lingering moisture along the departing trough may support isolated shower and storm chances Friday afternoon along the VA/KY border. Model and ensemble agreement is poor by next weekend. However, deterministic guidance diverges, with one scenario depicting a shortwave progressing through the Central Plains into portions of the Mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys by Saturday evening into Sunday, which would lead to another round of showers and storms across the area on Sunday. Conversely, an alternate scenario tracks the shortwave farther north into the Ohio Valley. NBM has maintained low-end isolated PoPs for Sunday (15-20%) to reflect this low-confidence scenario. Temperatures should remain slightly above normal for this time of year, in the mid to upper 80s. The CPC 6-10 day outlook supports this thinking. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Valley fog will develop and spread overnight and early Monday. It will bring localized IFR or worse conditions, probably affecting KLOZ and KSME TAF sites around dawn. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...HAL  066 FXUS61 KOKX 240259 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1059 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated for 03z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Chance of showers for both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Isolated thunderstorm possible for Monday. Severe weather impacts are not expected. 2) More chances of showers and thunderstorms for Thursday and Friday. Low confidence in potential impacts at this time. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Cold pool aloft with longwave troughing will be over the region for both Monday and Tuesday. Both afternoons could see instability showers for parts of the Lower Hudson Valley and Southern Connecticut, and with slightly more CAPE and perhaps slightly steeper lapse rates, there could be an isolated rumble of thunder for Monday. NBM kept all areas dry both days, but have gone with slight chc PoPs for both afternoons. Severe wx not expected, but a strong gust could be possible on Monday. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Global models show a weak wave of low pressure approaching from our SW on Thursday and passing nearby or through the forecast area during Friday. Too early to have high confidence in potential impacts, but will need to keep an eye on trends for severe wx and flooding. At least isolated thunder would be around based on the track of storm, and at least minor flooding would be possible with an increase of PWATs. Time frame for greatest chance of impacts would be Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front moves through this evening. A weak surface trough may linger over the area on Monday. Mainly, VFR through the TAF period. Chances are increasing for isolated showers on Monday afternoon. Confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this time. Winds lighten this evening to VRB or light out of the W/SW. Gusts Monday afternoon likely a bit stronger than today, as high as 20 to 25 kt. An isolated gust up to 30 kt can't be ruled out. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... An isolated gust up to 30 kt can't be ruled out Monday afternoon. Isolated showers are possible Monday afternoon, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this time. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: VFR. WSW gusts 15-20 kt. Wednesday: VFR. Light WSW/SW winds. Thursday-Friday: VFR Thu AM, becoming sub VFR with SHRA/TSRA. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Conditions on the marine zones are still expected to remain below small craft advisory thresholds during the marine forecast period. Pressure gradient overall remains relatively weak. Rip Currents: A moderate risk is expected for Monday followed by a low risk of rip currents on Tuesday for the Atlantic facing beaches. SE swell on both days is anticipated. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...JT MARINE...JC