542 FXUS64 KAMA 232300 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 600 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 122 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Summer heat wave continues with impactful temperatures near or above 100 degrees through at least Monday. - Low to medium chance (20-40%) for scattered storms capable of gusty winds across the northwest and central combined Panhandle this afternoon into this evening. - Potential pattern change could provide slightly cooler temperatures and increased rain opportunities this week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 122 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The last full week of August begins with a continued focus on impactful heat, as well as afternoon-evening showers and storms. High temperatures are expected to stay roasting in the 99-109 range for a majority of the Panhandles today and tomorrow, thanks to the smothering influence of high pressure aloft. On top of the heat, breezier southwest winds of 10-20 mph will unfortunately leave elevated fire weather conditions for a majority of the forecast area today. Today's rain chances rely on a shortwave disturbance impinging upon the 597 dam H500 area of high pressure centered to our west over New Mexico. In the mid-levels, a swath of better 700mb theta-e is progged to be in place atop the northern Panhandles when the shortwave arrives out of eastern CO & NM, which should initiate scattered convection this afternoon and evening. Although highest coverage of storms is favored across the north (20-40% POPs), isolated to scattered pop-up storms could develop with daytime heating and subtle areas of sfc convergence across the south and central Panhandles as well (10-20% POPs). Per usual, relatively dry surface conditions would support strong downburst wind gusts as the primary concern with any stronger storms, which should also keep the heavy rain potential on the lower side. However, PWATs >1.00" are supportive for locally heavier downpours, but even high-end rainfall totals are greatly favored to remain below 0.5" today. Tomorrow we'll be looking at a similar setup as we keep an eye on convection moving out of CO & NM, which should mostly survive the trip to the northern and far western Panhandles (20-50% POPs). A boundary will be in play for additional storm development elsewhere, but could also keep temperatures below 105 for most of our northern counties. Ahead of the boundary, heat advisories and perhaps even an extreme heat warning may be needed, especially south of I-40. We will have to monitor short range model guidance and observational data to see just how far south the boundary ultimately progresses. Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 122 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Models continue to heavily suggest that more rain opportunities and slightly less hot temperatures are in store for the middle of the week, but don't get your hopes up for a widespread drought buster or true cool down. The region will still be solidly dominated by high pressure through Tuesday afternoon, with triple digit heat holding steady. This pattern is set to evolve though, as long range data shows troughing over the Great Lakes region sagging southward Tuesday night through late week, which would suppress high pressure further southwest over El Paso. This synoptic pattern would allow northwest flow aloft to provide better disturbances and weak fronts for the region, especially for the northern combined Panhandles. Ensembles mostly agree this would increase rain chances each evening-overnight Tue-Thu. Despite favorable deep layer moisture (PWATs 1.0-1.5"), most members suggest rainfall totals wouldn't be terribly impressive (mostly 0.50" orless any given night). Temperatures are progged to decline to the 90s Wed-Thu, but not for long as widespread triple digits are favored to resume through the end of the week. The system Tuesday night is projected to be the strongest of the week and have abundant moisture in tow. Precipitation probabilities continue to rise for the entire Panhandles (30-70%), with medium range models now hinting that an organized MCS could push over much of the region from northwest to southeast. Some discrepancies exist among models, but forecast 20-30kt 0-6km shear along with 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE generally spell low-end potential for severe wind gusts with any organized storms Tuesday night. Although the aforementioned trend of lighter rainfall is still the more likely outcome, models such as the RRFS are placing swaths of much heavier rainfall wherever this hypothetical line of storms ultimately passes. If you don't receive any rain Tue night, Wed night is the next best opportunity with only slightly lower probabilities of precipitation (20-60%). Harrel && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 555 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at TAF sites. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving into the northwest combined Panhandles, and these could get stronger and bring thunderstorms to KDHT or KGUY but confidence is not high, so will keep the mention of PROB30 in the forecast. Storms are least likely to affect KAMA. Storms will diminish this evening and winds will eventually shift out of the north after 06z and linger into tomorrow afternoon. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ004-005-008>010- 012>015-017-018. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ019-020- 317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...28  717 FXUS66 KMFR 232302 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 402 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Temperatures peak about 5 to 10 degrees above normal on Monday before returning to seasonal levels near midweek. * There will be a slight chance (20 percent) of thunderstorms across southeastern Lake County and Modoc County Monday afternoon. * A passing shortwave will bring elevated fire weather conditions (gusty winds and low humidities) to areas west of the Cascades on Monday. A red flag warning is in effect for the southern Oregon Cascades and westward into Jackson County, the Siskiyou Mountains and western/central Siskiyou County. && .DISCUSSION...The upper trough that has been guiding conditions over the weekend has moved on to the northeast, leaving southwest flow aloft under the western side of a continental ridge. This pattern will bring some warming to most areas today, with easternmost Lake and Modoc County seeing similar temperatures as on Saturday. Monday will be the warmest day of the forecast period for most areas. Temperatures west of the Cascades may reach up to 10 degrees above normal, while to the east highs look to be about 5 degrees above normal. A passing shortwave will bring elevated winds into the Shasta Valley, the Klamath Basin, Christmas Valley, and parts of the Rogue Valley. For western Siskiyou County, Jackson County, and western Cascades foothills, these winds align with ongoing dry conditions to possibly reach critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Monday afternoon and evening to highlight these concerns. This shortwave is also support slight (15- 20%) thunderstorm chances over eastern Modoc and Lake counties, given its interactions with monsoonal moisture moving over those areas. While the chances for thunderstorms are not high enough to meet Red Flag criteria, any thunderstorms that do develop can still be locally hazardous by bringing lightning strikes or erratic and gusty winds. On Tuesday, an approaching trough around a low pressure system over the Pacific will shift flow to be more southerly. With dry air aloft precipitation is not expected. Temperatures west of the Cascades will drop a bit, but highs across the area look to stay about 5 degrees above normal. A weak front swinging around that trough may bring marine drizzle and some inland cloud cover On Tuesday morning, but significant impacts are not expected. For midweek and into the weekend, the upper trough starts to work against high pressure centered around the Four Corners area. The first low will weaken and move off to the northeast but another low follows to keep the trough in place possibly through Saturday. With this pattern, slow and steady cooling would bring generally seasonable warmth across the area by Friday or Saturday. Upper disturbances may bring elevated breezes on Friday, but details that far out are hard to forecast with high confidence. Overall, the forecast through the rest of August looks to be unimpactful. -TAD && .AVIATION (00Z TAFs)... Marine stratus with IFR/LIFR will redevelop along the coast this evening and persist through late Monday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for inland TAF sites, and typical diurnal winds expected today with some high clouds potentially infiltrating the region overnight. Gusty winds may develop for inland areas late Monday afternoon and evening. Additionally this is a slight chance (20%) for thunderstorms across Modoc and southeastern Lake county Monday afternoon and early Monday evening. Gusty outflow winds may accompany storms on Monday. && .MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Sunday, August 23, 2026...Gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas are building steepseas across area waters this afternoon. These winds will persist through Monday morning. The main belt of stronger winds will push into the outer waters Monday afternoon and evening, with a southerly surge of wind and fog along the inner waters Monday night into Tuesday. Generally light winds and calm seas are then expected through Friday with low pressure persisting over the northeastern Pacific. && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 PM PDT Sunday, August 22, 2026... With ongoing dry conditions, a passing shortwave will bring elevated winds to areas west of the Cascades. These winds will be southerly in the Shasta and could approach 30 to 35 mph. The Scott Valley could also see southerly winds approach 20 to 25 mph. In the eastern Rogue Valley, westerly winds could reach 20 to 25 mph. With RHs forecast to be in the 10-15% range, this combination represents critical fire weather conditions as any new fires could quickly spread. A Red Flag Warning for gusty winds and low RHs has been issued for California fire weather ones 280 and 281 as well as Oregon fire weather zones 621, 622, and 623. This Warning will be in place from 11 AM through 8 PM on Monday. Also on Monday, There are some signals for thunderstorm chances across far eastern 285/625, namely the Warner and Hart mountains. Much will depend on how far west the Four Corners High retrogrades behind this trough passage. Otherwise, another trough drops southward from the Gulf of Alaska and lingers off the BC coast through early next week. There will likely be additional shortwaves/troughs to swing through the region early next week, bringing periods of enhanced winds. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Monday for ORZ621>623. CA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Monday for CAZ280-281. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ370-376. && $$  803 FXUS64 KHGX 232304 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 604 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory remains in effect. - Cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm at times into midweek, but chances will be quite low for most of the area. - Temperatures slightly ease late in the week along with the potential for some rain chances returning to the forecast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Temperatures are currently running 2-5 degrees lower than yesterday at this time thanks to the debris cloudiness passing overhead. Satellite pix show the sun re-emerging so we still have plenty of time to get some of those readings back close to 100F. Like previous days, cannot rule out an isolated storm or two late in the day/evening. Consider yourself lucky if one passes overhead as most of us will remain dry. If you've enjoyed the wx for the past several days, you're in for a treat because more of the same is anticipated thru at least midweek. Will maintain the ongoing Heat Advisories in place. Later in the week (Thursday and beyond), the western mid-upper ridge moves a bit further to the west which will allow for falling heights locally and a gradual easing of the 100F+ temps. It appears that llvl ridging in the Gulf will also lose some of its grip. A more prevalent SSE flow emerges (versus the current SW) and opens up a better trajectory for some higher PW Gulf air to flow inland. Combination of this, less potent subsidence aloft, and some east-to-west mid level impulses should allow for the mention of some POPs to return to the fcst. Suspect we'll see rain chances trend higher than we currently have in our fcst assuming the wetter 12z deterministic model suites show some consistency as time marches on. 47 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 547 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites with SSE winds of 7-12 kts and minimal cloud cover. So far, convection has not initialized. We are starting to get a loss of daytime heating, so chances for TS/SHRA are decreasing for the rest of this afternoon and evening. Winds for this TAF period prevail at SSE, then decrease and veer WSW/SW overnight. Winds turn to the SSE and increase to the 7-12 kt range once again tomorrow afternoon. Early tomorrow morning around sunrise, another round of MVFR CIG/VIS is possible, mainly south of I-10. Any MVFR CIGs that develop are expected to be short lived, with VIS only dropping to 7-9 SM. VFR conditions return by about 15Z tomorrow at all TAF sites. MLG && .MARINE... Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Southwest to west winds late at night and in the mornings will become south 10 to 15 knots during the day as the seabreeze kicks in. Seas will be 1 to 3 feet. A more prevailing southeast to southeast flow should set back up late in the week and weekend along with the return of some isolated to scattered rain chances. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 78 103 77 102 / 20 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 80 101 79 101 / 20 10 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 83 93 84 92 / 10 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...MLG MARINE...47  072 FXUS62 KCHS 232309 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 709 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Key Message 1 was updated. The Aviation section was updated for the 00z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and again Monday afternoon. - 2)Increasing rain chances mid to late week with the potential for locally heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon. The synoptic pattern aloft today and tomorrow will be similar, featuring large scale troughing along the eastern CONUS. A weak surface front will linger in the vicinity of the SC Midlands into the middle of the week. Shortwave troughs are expected to ripple across the southern periphery of the large scale troughing aloft today and Monday. This synoptic set up will allow for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop both this afternoon and again Monday afternoon. Monday: Forecast soundings paint a similar picture to Sunday on Monday afternoon, however with PWATs increasing to around 1.7 to 1.8". Coverage of thunderstorms is forecast to be greater, with scattered to numerous PoPs in the forecast. DCAPE values are still forecast to be upwards of 1500 J/kg. Damaging wind gusts will again be the main hazard. Machine learning guidance shows the main threat area across SE Georgia, with slightly higher probabilities of damaging wind gusts than portrayed on Sunday. The current outlook from the Storm Prediction Center is another Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5). KEY MESSAGE 2: Increasing rain chances mid to late week with the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Wednesday through Thursday: The region will remain between a Bermuda high and low pressure over the Southern Plains. This pattern should support steady southwest H85 winds across the Deep South and Southeast U.S., aiding in rising PW values across the region. By Thursday, GFS forecast soundings indicate PW values exceeding 1.9" across SE GA and SC. As temperatures warm into the low to mid 90s, a sea breeze should develop each afternoon, pushing inland through the early evening hours. Instability could pool into moderate levels given dewpoints in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. The forecast will indicate scattered to numerous PoPs for showers and thunderstorms. Friday into Saturday: The GFS and ECMWF indicate that the weakness between the western Atlantic and south Rockies ridges will deepen across the region. A weak cold front could drape across the forecast area during the late week. In addition, an afternoon and evening sea breeze is expected to develop each day. Given warm and humid conditions across the region, the cold front and sea breeze boundaries should yield areas of numerous showers and thunderstorms. This pattern may provide weak flow, resulting in storm motions around 15 mph. In addition, multi-cell storms could develop along the sea breeze and any outflow boundaries. Provided PW values near 2 inches, excessive rainfall could occur, especially over areas of recent heavy rainfall. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 24/00z TAFs: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR will prevail through much of the period through 25/00z. Risk for tstms will increase during the mid-late afternoon hours, especially near KSAV where confidence for some tstm impacts is the greatest. VCTS was introduced 21-00z for KSAV. Guidance suggests coverage may be more sparse around KCHS and KJZI, thus no mention of TSRA was included for this forecast cycle. The need for TSRA will be reevaluated for the 06z TAF cycle. Extended Aviation Outlook: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon potentially bringing temporary restrictions at the terminals. && .MARINE... Through Friday: The pressure pattern should favor southwest winds between 10 to 15 kts. As a result, seas will likely remain between 2 to 3 ft. Any thunderstorms that move over the waters have the potential to bring higher wind gusts and frequent lightning, especially late Monday afternoon/evening off the GA and lower SC coast. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: August 24: KCHS: 76/2010 KCXM: 80/1975 August 25: KCHS: 77/1982 August 28: KCHS: 77/2020 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$  101 FXUS63 KOAX 232309 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 609 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, with another round possible tonight into Monday morning. Severe weather is not expected. - Clouds and rain chances will keep temperatures cooler today and Monday, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. - Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances continue into the work week, with high temperatures generally in the low to mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1136 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Today and Tomorrow... Water vapor imagery and objective analysis late this morning continue to depict an amplified ridge in place over the western CONUS with subsequent troughing in place over the eastern CONUS. Sandwiched between the two, we continued to reside under northwesterly flow aloft as a train of disturbance slide over the ridge and into the area. A shortwave disturbance pivoting across NE/SD has developed a band of showers and thunderstorms that will continue its slow trek eastward into eastern Nebraska this afternoon. Instability quickly drops off with eastern extent, so showers are expected to gradually weaken and decrease in coverage as they progress into the area through the afternoon. Given the slow movement and longer residence time, we could see some rainfall totals approaching 1 inch towards east-central Nebraska, with totals quickly dropping off towards the Missouri River. Otherwise, the increasing cloud cover will keep afternoon highs confined to the low 70s to low 80s. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected tonight into early Monday as a 25-30 kt LLJ noses into eastern Nebraska, helping to bring sufficient low-level moisture and warm air advection to initiate a round of scattered showers, generally after 10 PM before become more widespread overnight. Instability will be the main limiting factor for storms overnight. A corridor of marginal MUCAPE (1000-1250 J/kg) will drift into northeast Nebraska, bring some low- end potential for a stronger storm or two. However, instability tapers off quickly to the south and east, leaving enough for a few rumbles of thunder but limiting overall storm intensity. Showers will gradually taper off through the late morning hours on Monday. Rainfall totals will be quite variable across the area, depending on where heavier showers track, though pockets of 0.50-1.00" are expected across eastern Nebraska. Clouds cover will be slow to break up and improve behind the departing showers, helping to keep afternoon highs confined to the upper 70s and low 80s yet again. Tuesday... Through the work week, the large scale pattern will remain largely unchanged, with ridging to our west keeping the area under generally northwest flow aloft as a train of shortwave disturbances bring periodic precipitation chances. A few extra peaks of sunshine on Tuesday will help bring high temperatures back into the mid 80s ahead of a shortwave disturbance pushing into the northern Plains. The disturbance is expected to spin up a surface low tracking across southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba that will drape a cold front across the plains, pushing southward across the area through the latter half of Tuesday/early Wednesday. Storm chances with the frontal passage remain somewhat uncertain. While it does look like a fairly unstable airmass will develop ahead of the front, the better forcing for ascent will remain to our northeast, closer to Minnesota, with another enhanced area to our west towards western NE/KS with another incoming shortwave disturbance. Storm development will likely fall on more mesoscale details that come into focus with time. While a strong to severe storm can't be ruledout, the better potential resides to our west. With this in mind, PoPs of 20-40% are in place Tuesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday and Beyond... Precipitation chances clear out Wednesday morning, with dry conditions likely into Thursday. Plenty of sunshines and a brief period of surface high pressure will keep high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Long range guidance continues to flatten the western CONUS ridge into the weekend, keeping it mostly centered over the Desert Southwest and Permian Basin, leaving more zonal flow aloft locally and bringing subtle temperature increase to the area. High temperatures are expected to push back into the mid to upper 80s this weekend, though we will still remain vulnerable to passing shortwave disturbance over the ridge bringing periodic precipitation chances. On-and-off PoPs of 20-40% continue Friday through the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Cigs are generally lifting across the area this evening as showers slowly dissipate. Expect VFR conditions to prevail until a redevelopment of thunderstorms overnight. Have postponed the arrival time of those storms by a few hours.. now expected between 09Z (OFK) and wrapping up by 14Z Monday at LNK and OMA. May see some temporary MVFR cigs (FL030) or vis (2SM) with the heaviest showers or strongest storms, but confidence isn't high enough to add them to the TAF at this point. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...Nicolaisen  035 FXUS66 KEKA 232308 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 408 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer drier conditions for the interior Monday and Tuesday with gusty winds near the Trinity horn will elevate fire weather conditions. && .SYNOPSIS...Dry, seasonable weather is likely for the early part of the week. Slightly warmer interior temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday before another trough brings cooler temperatures mid-week. Coastal stratus is likely to clear out again Monday afternoon but may be more persistent later in the week. && .DISCUSSION...Weak high pressure fills in over the area today bringing slightly warmer temperatures this afternoon for the interior. Most interior areas will see highs in the 90s with a stray triple digit possible for the warmest valleys. The previously deep marine layer is now shallower as high pressure fills in but will continue to bring stratus to the river valleys near coast. Expect clearing out again Monday afternoon as breezy coastal winds are likely to scatter any remaining stratus bringing mostly clear, yet breezy conditions to the coast. Temperatures will increase for the next few days as weak ridging sets in, with southerly winds oddly enough swooping into the area late tonight into early Monday morning. These southerlies will find their way into channeled terrain and into the central valley, focusing and funneling up the interior which will bring fire weather concerns as air parcels are pulled downslope into valleys near the Oregon border. (see fire weather below) Through the middle of the week, a trough starts to approach the area bringing slightly cooler interior temperatures along with a deeper marine layer. Light winds offshore may lead to coastal stratus to be persistent into the afternoons. Moisture and instability is limited with this troughing pattern, which will limit thunderstorm potential. Generally mild, seasonable weather is likely towards the end of the week. /EYS && .AVIATION...Gusty winds at KCEC will ease to southerly by the early Monday morning hours overnight. Southerly winds also fill in overnight at KACV around the same time as KCEC, 04-07z. With this southerly surge there will be a reduction in flight categories as stratus and the marine layer make their way on shore and into the coastal flight terminals. A much stronger signal for LIFR and reduced visibility are being shown by MOS guidance with NBM also putting a probability to 1/2sm visibility around 35% at the coastal terminals. With the southerly wind pattern KUKI flight categories become a concern as stratus usually pushes up the adjacent river valleys. The lack of depth of the marine layer and calm winds at KUKI may hamper this development. NBM probs only have a < 10% chance of ceilings below 3000ft near KUKI overnight. /EYS && .MARINE...Northerly winds continue to increase across the outer waters, in the lee of Cape Mendocino. Localized gale force gusts are possible downstream from Cape Mendocino. Steep seas are likely to propagate into the inner waters even as winds remain light. Winds diminish Monday as a frontal boundary arrives. && .FIRE WEATHER...A warmer drier trend for the next 36 hours for areas of the interior, particularly Trinity county bordering Siskiyou. Gusty diurnal southerly winds coming up the north valley will be channeled into mountainous terrain, possibly warming air parcels as they descend into river valleys of Siskiyou. Exposed ridges will also be of concern. Otherwise, recoveries will be moderate to good in the lower elevations and poor in the higher elevations. Winds generally remain light and terrain driven for our CWA with typical afternoon breezes. A deeper marine layer returns mid week. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PDT Monday for PZZ470-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png  475 FXUS63 KILX 232312 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 612 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonal and mostly dry weather is expected through at least Tuesday evening over central and southeast IL. - The next chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to marginally severe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Nice late summer weather pattern expected through Tuesday across central and southeast IL after a very active weather pattern 1st 3 weeks of the month. Weak 1021 mb surface high pressure over nw MO into central Iowa and upper MS river valley to settle over IL during tonight and into the mid Ohio river valley on Mon and Mon night while ridging back into central/ne IL. This will continue fair wx across the prairie state into Tuesday with dry conditions and more comfortable humidity levels. NW winds 5-15 mph and scattered diurnally driven cumulus clouds over central and ne IL to dissipate after sunset while veil of high clouds over MO and central/se Iowa is clipping west central and sw IL. A disturbance over the central plains to keep chances of convection well sw of IL over central and sw MO tonight into early Monday as it tracks se across the MO valley/Ozarks. Patchy shallow ground fog may develop during overnight into early Mon morning mainly near river valleys and low lying rural ares. HREF only has 15-30% chance of vsbys getting to 5 miles or less over portions of CWA later tonight. HRRR and RAP show very little fog formation with drier air in place while NAM and GFSLamp show some patchy fog development mainly near river valleys. Comfortable night ahead with lows in the mid to upper 50s. Highs Monday around 80F with lower 80s southeast IL and sw CWA, with scattered cumulus clouds developing by midday giving partly to mostly sunny skies. Lows 55-60F Monday night and highs in the low to mid 80s Tuesday. Winds to stay fairly light generally under 10 mph tonight through Tue. A northern stream upper level shortwave moving over the southern Canadian Prairie Provinces next few days, will track se through the northern Great Lakes Region, sending a cold front se through IL during Wed afternoon and Wed night. This will likely bring our next chance for showers and thunderstorms. Increasing south to SW flow ahead of the cold front to bring in warmer and more humid air into central/se IL on Wed. Highs in the mid to upper 80s Wed and possibly approaching 90F from Springfield sw with dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s/lower 70s. A cap initially in place on Wed could break later in the afternoon and Wed evening allowing thunderstorms to develop in a moderate instability with wind shear environment. Although the better upper forcing will be displaced to our north, a few strong to marginally severe storms could develop later Wednesday afternoon and evening, posing a threat for damaging wind gusts. Could see lingering low chances of showers/thunderstorms in se IL early Thu, otherwise fair weather with seasonable temperatures to return Thu through at least Friday night as high pressure settles into the region. Strong mid/upper level ridge over the Southwest States through this work week begins to break down/flatten this weekend, and may see disturbance tracking into the midwest during this weekend especially by Sunday. A few model members shows some convection chances as early as Saturday over the IL river valley, while more members wait until Sunday for convection chances, though GEM and Ecmwf are dry thru the weekend. NBM keeps pops low this weekend with 20% pops over IL river valley Sat and Sat evening and 20-40% pops overnight Sat night and Sunday. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8-14 Day outlook for Aug 31-Sep 6th has a 35-45% chance of above normal temperatures over central/se IL and 33-40% below normal precipitation from Quincy to Danville north and trending near normal south. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 611 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. A few high cirrus will be present overnight, but clear skies will be the rule. Some diurnal CU will develop again tomorrow but under high pressure, that should be limited. Winds will be light and variable overnight through tomorrow. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...07 DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...Auten  550 FXUS64 KOHX 232314 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 614 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 612 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Drier with cooler evening and overnight periods through Tuesday. Fog is possible across the river valleys each morning. - Low to medium rain and storm chances, mainly mid week, with seasonal temperatures that continue into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Water vapor imagery shows a broad area of drier air aloft and northwesterly flow across the region and we finally got a taste of cooler, drier air this morning behind the front that moved through last night. This is a welcomed air mass which will promote continued stable conditions and cooler evenings and overnights through Monday as high pressure moves to our north. We currently do not have any mentionable rain chances through the short-term as a result. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Medium-range guidance and ensembles suggest little change in the background weather pattern through the upcoming week. Generally speaking, ridging will remain out west with a trough across the east. However, the trough should slowly move east mid to late week which will allow for a bit of moisture return from the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will foster showers and a few thunderstorms mid week. Better coverage of convection is possible with passing shortwaves progged during this timeframe and we'll have to see if we get any severe weather since we'll remain in modest mid-level flow. Too early to tell right now. Overall the temperature forecast is pretty close to seasonal norms mid to late week and guidance is on the drier side late week into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions persist this taf cycle with light northerly winds. A mid-level cloud deck around 6000 ft is streaming in from the northwest and this will lead to episodes of SCT to BKN cloud coverage through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 62 89 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 61 87 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 58 82 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 63 90 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 60 84 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 59 82 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 62 88 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 62 89 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 63 87 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sizemore LONG TERM....Sizemore AVIATION.....Baggett  655 FXUS61 KAKQ 232316 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 716 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable humidity through Wednesday. Mainly dry outside of isolated sea- breeze showers today. 2) Unsettled conditions return mid to late week with daily chances for showers/storms. && .DISCUSSION... As of 230 PM EDT Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable humidity through Wednesday. Mainly dry outside of isolated sea- breeze showers today. Drier air is filtering into the area as a cold front moves offshore and high pressure fills in behind. Dewpoints have dropped into the low to mid 60s for much of the area with values in the 50s just to the west. Coastal areas are still a tad more humid with dewpoints still in the upper 60s, but that's an improvement compared to recent weeks. The drier air combined with mostly sunny skies and temps in the 80s all add up for a gorgeous late August day. If the forecasted seabreeze can get going, it may be enough to trigger a few isolated showers near the coast later this afternoon. These should be fairly light and brief given the drier airmass moving in. The pleasant conditions continue through the early week period with the sfc high remaining in place. KEY MESSAGE 2... Unsettled conditions return mid to late week with daily chances for showers/storms. Global models indicate that the sfc high slides offshore sometime Wed/Thurs and the flow aloft shifts back to the SW allowing for moisture return to the Mid-Atlantic. Highs will be near 90 Wed through the weekend and the humidity returns as well as daily chances for afternoon thunderstorms. As of now, Thurs looks like the day for most widespread storms when another front comes through. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 715 PM EDT Sunday... VFR conditions prevail through the 00z TAF period. Light and variable winds overnight become SW 5-10 kt on Monday. FEW/SCT CU likely develop as heating/mixing get underway mid to late morning through the afternoon. Outlook: Dry and prevailing VFR conditions expected through the mid week period. && .MARINE... As of 1225 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Generally benign marine conditions are expected through the weekend into early next week. - A brief SE surge is possible late Wednesday into early Wednesday night. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail this weekend through much of next week. A cold front continues to move east across the local waters this afternoon. However, elevated winds are not expected behind the front. Instead, NW winds of 5-10 kt early this afternoon become variable through tonight. Will note that a secondary cold front pushes through overnight, allowing for NW winds after ~2 AM. High pressure builds in Mon with light and variable winds continuing. Another weak cold front pushes across the local waters Mon night with winds becoming N 10-15 kt. Winds gradually diminish Tue as weak onshore flow develops (5-10 kt). The only potential for low-end SCA conditions appears to be late Wed into Wed night as SE winds increase to ~15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt behind a warm front. However, confidence is low at this time with the current model consensus showing winds remaining sub- SCA. Otherwise, waves mainly around 1 foot (occasionally 1-2 ft) and seas mainly around 2 feet (occasionally 2-3 ft) continue through the week. Given 1-2 ft nearshore waves, the rip current risk remains low through Wed. Will note that long period swell of 10-12 seconds continues through Wed which could result in some rip currents. However, given the relatively flat nearshore waves, current thinking is that the rip current risk will remain below moderate. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AC AVIATION...RHR MARINE...RMM  664 FXUS63 KARX 232316 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 616 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pleasant temperatures are on the docket for the upcoming week with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s, warmest for Monday and Tuesday. - The risk for thunderstorms returns for Tuesday afternoon and evening, some of which may be on the stronger side. - Showers may linger in Wisconsin into Wednesday, with the next round of rain not expected until next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 This Afternoon - Monday: Pleasant and Dry, Cool Tonight Northwesterly upper tropospheric flow continues into Monday with surface high pressure gradually sliding across the region between this afternoon and Monday afternoon. Tonight's main forecast concerns revolves around temperatures and fog along and east of the Mississippi River, both of which hinge on the degree of cloud cover that spreads southeastward from northern High Plains convection later this afternoon. The high cirrus shield is not overly thick in the forecast soundings, which could result in a complex scenario where lower temperatures and fog shift in space and time depending on the cloud cover. Should the clouds wane, lows tonight could touch the upper 30s in the favored sand bogs and fog could be dense in the valleys. The alternate scenario is lows stay more in the mid-40s with little fog should the clouds come in thicker. Tuesday Afternoon: Storm Potential Little change to the going forecast for the risk for strong to even severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening as a notable mid-tropospheric vort max/shortwave crests our upstream ridge and digs into Minnesota. Forecast profiles continue to show a favorable wind profile featuring elongated low to mid-level hodographs normal to the surface front that would support organized supercellular structures. The issue in the more recent medium range soundings has been an EML and deep sub-cloud mixing, which rapidly erode the available instability. Will have to monitor conditions upstream carefully Monday night into Tuesday morning to see if the previous day's convection can modulate this lower tropospheric airmass to support more vigorous updrafts. Even a slight cooling and moistening to these profiles could quickly change how these storms evolve, so stay tuned for further updates. End of the Week: Drier Once Again, Possibly some Weekend Rain A few showers may linger in central Wisconsin on Wednesday within cyclonic flow following our late Tuesday storms, but most of the area should stay dry for the day. Upper level ridging and surface high pressure return for the end of the work week bringing similar conditions as we are seeing to start the week. The pattern grows more active heading into the weekend with the potential for more widespread rainfall in excess of 1 inch. However the position of the synoptic features are not well- resolved and make it difficult to delve into at this range. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 616 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Main aviation forecast concern revolves around potential fog development in valleys and low-lying areas late tonight, mainly east of the Mississippi River. The overall setup is favorable, but expected incoming high clouds will be the complicating factor. Recent runs of the NBM have trended toward a bit more cloud cover and thus slightly lower probabilities for MVFR fog at LSE. Will monitor satellite and guidance trends this evening for 06Z TAF. Otherwise VFR with light and variable to calm winds overnight, becoming south to southwest by late Monday morning. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Skow AVIATION...Kurz  705 FXUS62 KRAH 232318 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 715 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * A very limited chance of a shower or storm across southeastern Sampson and Wayne counties this afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 200 PM Sunday... 1) The cold front that moved across central NC has stalled across the eastern Coastal Plain. Drier air will continue to move into the region from the northwest but lingering moisture near the front could lead to a stray shower or storm this afternoon along the Coastal Plain. 2) There will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon along and east of the I-95 corridor. 3) Diurnally based convection returns to the forecast on Wednesday, maximized on Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... As of 200 PM Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1... The cold front that moved across central NC has stalled across the eastern Coastal Plain. Drier air will continue to move into the region from the northwest but lingering moisture near the front could lead to a stray shower or storm this afternoon along the Coastal Plain. The latest surface analysis shows the slow moving cold front now located across the eastern Coastal Plain with northwest winds across all of the area including at Fayetteville, Goldsboro and Clinton. Drier air has been filtering into the region thanks to a northwest or westerly flow in the low levels. The RAOB at KGSO this morning noted a PW of only 0.94 inches which is around the 18th percentile. The drier air combined with good mixing has allowed dew points to fall into the upper 50s at KINT, KGSO, KEXX, and KHNZ and the lower 60s across most of the remainder of the Piedmont. Further east and southeast across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills moisture lingers with dew points in the upper 60s to around 70. This has resulted in a bit more cumulus clouds and perhaps a little vertical growth near and just behind the front from Maxton to just southeast of Fayetteville to just south of Goldsboro. Wouldn't be shocked if a rogue shower or storm develop near or east of this line through around 6pm but the coverage and intensity should be very limited and more favored to the east. Generally fair weather is expected overnight with a northwest to westerly flow aloft, An approaching mid level disturbance may trigger a weak area of low pressure to develop in the Carolinas overnight on the front, or at least buckle the front and the moisture back west slightly. Some of the CAMs, primarily the HRRR suggest a rogue shower could develop late tonight across southern or southeastern areas, there is very little support for this in the other CAM guidance so will exclude any overnight PoPs. There could be some patchy fog or low stratus across the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain toward day break as well. Lows tonight should range in the lower 60s in the Triad and VA border counties, with mid 60s in the Triangle and southern Piedmont and the upper 60s in the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Could see a few upper 50s in the typically colder spots such as Henderson and Sanford. These lows range from 1 to 4 degrees below average. Even more notable will be the dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s which will result in a much more pleasant morning for the first day of school in many locations. KEY MESSAGE 2... There will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon along and east of the I-95 corridor. The cold front moving across central North Carolina today will become hung up along the Atlantic coastline tonight into Tuesday. The bulk of the convection that will occur Monday will be along the immediate coastline, but models have inched the western edge of the precipitation slightly farther to the west than they were yesterday. Other than around Fayetteville, it still appears that nearly all precipitation that occurs should remain east of I-95, and chances for storms are anywhere between 20-40%. The Storm Prediction Center does have a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe storms along the coastline, just clipping the southern tip of Sampson County. Again, it is along the coastline where the greatest instability and wind shear will remain. Key Message 3: Diurnally based convection returns to the forecast on Wednesday, maximized on Thursday. KEY MESSAGE 3... The front will inch northward Wednesday and Thursday, eventually extending from Elizabeth City to Monroe. The chance of showers/storms Wednesday afternoon should generally be to the southeast of the Triangle, although all locations are likely to see at least some minimal precipitation Thursday. As the front retreats back to the coastline for the weekend, precipitation will become more scattered, but locations in the southeast will have higher chances of rain than locations in the northwest. Temperatures should be near normal for late August, with highs around 90 and lows around 70. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 715 PM Sunday... Fair weather and VFR conditions are expected through the overnight hours across all of central NC. However, after midnight there's a chance of some low stratus and fog development mainly across the south and east which could cause some temporary restrictions at KRWI and KFAY. Outlook: A stalled front across the Coastal Plain could produce some isolated storms near KFAY/KRWI Monday afternoon. As the air mass becomes gradually more moist over the outlook period, the risk of scattered afternoon and evening storms will gradually increase, with the greatest chances on Wednesday and especially Thursday. There will also be an increase risk of late night and early morning fog and stratus, especially across eastern and southern locations. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Blaes/Green AVIATION...CA/Blaes  731 FXUS63 KGRB 232319 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 619 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry through Monday, with rain chances (50-80%) Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. The risk of widespread severe weather is low. - Chilly with lows into the 30s north-central WI tonight. Otherwise temperatures most of this week will be near or slightly above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Near term through Monday...NW flow persists to the west of deep troughing over the central and eastern Great Lakes. Cooler air aloft the warmer lakes and daytime heating will result in blossoming cu this afternoon. Moisture appears too shallow to conjure up any showers, though a few sprinkles could occur. Northern Door most favored for those. Northwest winds will be gusty again this afternoon, but will back off quickly this evening. As winds become light and skies clear, temps will drop quickly, with mid 30s in favored cold spots of north-central WI, low-mid 40s central WI into far northeast WI, and upper 40s to near 50 from the Fox Valley to the lakeshore. Some very patchy ground fog will be possible late tonight into Monday morning, especially across central and northern WI. It could be cool enough for sheltered areas in the far north to see some brief patchy frost late tonight. Mostly sunny on Monday with light winds. Showers and some storms Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening...Sharp shortwave trough with cold front drop into northern MN Tuesday afternoon before shifting across WI and MI through Wednesday. Pooling instability along the front late Tuesday may allow a small severe risk into far northwest portions of cwa very late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Various ML sources point to this, but even so, stronger signal stays farther into northwest WI and northern MN. That said, showers and storms will probably not completely die off later Tuesday night as they move east given a persistent LLJ and some elevated instability with the stronger system. Does appear that models are coming into better agreement with faster fropa on Wednesday, pushing the primary severe risk farther east. Enough cool air aloft with the trough to result in chance pops northeast and eastern WI through peak heating on Wednesday. Thus, suppose an isolated strong to severe storm is not off the table. Chances for showers and storms on Thursday have decreased as core of upper trough and cooler air aloft has shifted farther north. Pops for Thursday now sitting at less than 10 percent. Extended...Next chances for showers and storms (20-40%) eases back into the area from the southwest for the weekend as flow aloft becomes more zonal. Early look, but signal for greatest instability and severe/heavy rain potential remains southwest plains to the upper mississippi river valley. Temperatures...After the chilly conditions tonight, temperatures the rest of the week look to be near normal or slightly above normal. Warmest days with highs in the low-mid 80s would be Tuesday and/or Wednesday ahead of and near the frontal boundary moving through. Warmest night in the 60s much of the area will be Tuesday night with clouds, showers and some wind. Lows could drop back into the 40s again late this week over the north. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 No significant changes to the previous forecast. Other than patchy ground fog for central and north-central WI late tonight, plan on VFR conditions through the TAF period. Higher based cumulus clouds will clear out early this evening, with just wispy cirrus at times for the rest of the night. Less fair weather clouds are expected on Monday, but increased coverage a bit in this issuance based on obs upstream into the few-sct range. Cloud bases will likely remain above 5-6 kft. Northwest winds will subside early this evening becoming 5 kts or less overnight. With high pressure centered across the region, winds on Monday will be light, topping out at 5 to 10 kts during the afternoon. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....JLA AVIATION.......MPC  739 FXUS63 KICT 232319 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 619 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms are possible tonight through Monday morning with potential for large hail, damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. - Periodic rain chances are possible through next weekend with the main chances in the evenings through the overnight hours. - Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures are expected through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 An upper trough is currently over the eastern CONUS with ridging over much of the Plains and into the southwest US. An upper shortwave trough is sliding across the northwestern US into the Northern Rockies. In our area, scattered showers continue across portions of central KS due to 850-700 mb WAA. This late afternoon into this evening, slight chances for showers and storms will be possible in eastern Kansas as 850 mb WAA continues. Strong to severe storms appear unlikely with this activity due to the lack of instability. As we move into late tonight and the overnight hours, additional storm chances will be possible for areas along and east of I-135 with the best chances in southeast KS as 700 mb WAA continues. Strong to marginally severe storms will be possible with this activity as MUCAPE values are generally around 1000 J/kg with 30-40 kts of effective shear and mid-level lapse rates greater than 7 C/km. The main hazard will likely be large hail but isolated damaging winds cannot be ruled out. PWATs are around 1.7" which is greater than the 75th percentile for this time of year, leading to efficient rainfall with any storm that develops. If numerous storms continue to track over the same area, localized flooding concerns may be possible. Moving into Monday morning, scattered showers and storms may linger from overnight activity in areas along and east of the Flint Hills with this activity expected to shift east by late Monday morning. High temperatures will rise back into the 90s with the warmest readings anticipated in south-central KS. For Monday night, mostly dry conditions are expected before slight rain chances start to increase in northern Kansas, closer to early Tuesday morning as a weak shortwave slides across the region. For Tuesday, high temperatures will once again rise into the low to mid 90s across our area. As we move towards Tuesday night into Wednesday, rain chances will increase as a stronger shortwave moves into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes area, pushing a frontal boundary south into the Central Plains. Showers and storms may be possible along this weak boundary, though timing and coverage are still uncertain with this activity. For Wednesday and beyond, the upper air pattern will generally remain unchanged, keeping the Plains in northwesterly flow aloft. This will allow embedded shortwaves to continue ejecting out into the region, keeping periodic rain chances possible into next weekend. The main rain chances will be in the evenings through the overnight hours each night. For temperatures, highs will remain in the 90s with values around or slight above normal temperatures for this time of year. Lows will be in the upper 60s to around 70 across the area. For next weekend, triple digit heat is possible to return as the upper ridge axis shifts towards the Northern Plains. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR weather conditions will prevail for much of the region over the next 24hrs, however scattered to numerous showers/storms look to develop over eastern Kansas late tonight. This will likely affect KCNU taf site during the overnight and morning hours, therefore we included tempo for thunderstorms late tonight into the morning hour. Light east and southeast winds will prevail across the region during the next 24hrs. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...GC AVIATION...CDJ  742 FXUS63 KPAH 232319 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 619 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 20-40% chance of patchy fog early Monday morning, especially along and northwest of the Ohio River. - Elevated isolated showers and storms may clip Carter and Ripley county Monday morning with a 30% chance of rainfall between one to two tenths of an inch. - Temperatures will quickly return to more seasonable by Wednesday with an increase in humidity levels along with 20-30% chance of daily showers and storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A broad H5 trough with northwesterly flow is centered over the Ohio Valley this afternoon with sfc high pressure in control. Drier air above 800 mb has allowed for dewpoints to mix down into the upper 50s in some spots with temperatures running about 5 degrees below normal. Mostly clear skies and calm winds tonight will allow for radiational cooling. Leaned below NBM for low temperatures Monday morning that range from the mid 50s to low 60s. Patchy fog will be possible again with the probabilistic NBM/LAMP guidance supporting a 20-40% chance. The other concern will be the potential for a elevated complex of storms to clip Carter and Ripley county as a H5 shortwave approaches. Limited NBM PoPs to a 30% chance for a tenth or two inch of rainfall as most of the 12z CAMs have shifted more south towards the better instability. Temperatures quickly trend more seasonable by Wednesday as a warm front lifts north with humidity levels on the rise for the latter half of the week. The FA will remain sandwiched between an upper level ridge and trough that will send additional disturbances our way beginning Wednesday. Daily rain chances through Thursday only range from 20-30% with even lower chances heading into next weekend as another area of sfc high pressure builds in. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 616 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Locations that get the coldest tonight, and have more sky clearing, are the locations that are most likely to see fog develop. High cloud cover is expected to remain over SEMO and portions of southern IL. This may hinder fog development at CGI, PAH, and MVN but is not a guarantee...therefore used a TEMPO group for now. Winds should be calm overnight to light and variable at times. Winds tomorrow will be light and variable and will shift around to the northeast by late afternoon. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...HICKFORD  704 FXUS64 KLUB 232318 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 618 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 618 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Record breaking high temperatures possible Monday. - Stronger breezes and low RH values will bring elevated fire danger Monday afternoon. - Storm chances return each day next week beginning Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The heat continues today and Monday as an upper high remains positioned over the FA. Temperatures are already in the mid/upper 90s across the FA and should continue increasing through the afternoon. Unlike Saturday evening, there will likely be no evening convection to help give a reprieve from the hot afternoon. The center of the upper high will be more directly overhead on Monday and will allow highs to be a degree or two warmer than those expected today. An Extreme Heat Warning is once again in effect for the Rolling Plains Monday while the Heat Advisory will be expanded to cover more areas on the Caprock. An embedded upper low over southern Canada is progged to push a cold front southward across the Plains late Monday afternoon and could reach our northern zones by late evening. While this would bring some potential for storm development, the front's arrival would be well after sunset and would have little to no upper level support for lift. The forecast will continue to remain dry for the time being. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 While hot temperatures are still expected through the next week, some slight relief does look to be on the horizon. The upper high will begin to slowly drift westward by mid week. This will allow thicknesses to decrease gradually through the week, with afternoon highs dropping to the mid to upper 90s by Thursday. Another positive effect will be the potential for increased rain chances. The upper low over Hudson Bay will continue to push weak cold front southward across the Great Plains. Though weak, north to northwest upper flow will help the cold fronts push further south into the FA and may provide needed lift for convection. This would help to further cool temps pas what the NBM has forecast. Storm chances will continue to increase into next weekend as the upper high moves further west and will give diurnal convection across the mountains of New Mexico a fighting chance to move into the FA. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR and generally light winds will continue. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-030>032- 035>038-041>044. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026- 031-032. Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ024>026- 031-032-037-038-042>044. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ029-030- 034>036-040-041. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....51 AVIATION...19  825 FXUS62 KGSP 232320 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 720 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The aviation forecast updated for the 00Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dry weather with comfortable humidity levels through Tuesday. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances return Wednesday and continue through the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Dry weather with comfortable humidity levels through Tuesday. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances return Wednesday and continue through the rest of the week. Amplified upper pattern will persist over the CONUS through the first half of this week, with deep anticyclone remaining centered near New Mexico and closed low over the eastern periphery of the Great Lakes. At the surface we will be on the cool side of a front stalled in the I-20 corridor. Monday the pattern will support northwest winds, advecting dry continental air into the region. Profiles are unfavorable for deep convection with only shallow cumulus expected. Cold advection will be offset by insolation and downslope flow, such that daytime temperatures run near normal. Afternoon mixing should maintain low dewpoints in the lower 60s or even upper 50s. Overnight lows will be a few degrees below normal on account of the lower dewpoints and good radiational cooling conditions. The upper pattern becomes less amplified over the area by Tuesday as the closed low drifts further east and its influence over the southern Appalachians diminishes. Broadly cyclonic flow will remain over the eastern half of the CONUS. Most guidance shows weak northerly winds at the surface, though winds aloft begin to favor southwest in response to more influence of the Plains ridge, and some moisture return aloft. In turn dewpoints rebound a bit though still mainly in the lower to mid 60s, while temperatures will remain near normal. This looks unlikely to have much impact on convective chances; more models/ensemble members depict our whole area remaining dry through Tuesday compared to yesterday's runs. Weak sfc high in the Midwest is expected to fill and drift east by Wednesday; heights fall slightly aloft in the mid-MS Valley in advance of the next shortwave rotating into the broad trough. These changes effectively reactivate the front and bring it northward into our area; dewpoints and temps rise and diurnal showers/storms again appear possible. Interaction between the shortwave and the front suggests a continuing chance of showers/storms overnight into Thursday (when precip chances are greatest between now and next weekend). Though there are indications the passage of that shortwave may push the front back to our south and east at least briefly, it appears unlikely airmass change will occur. Hence we will remain seasonably hot and humid through the end of the period with a chance for primarily diurnal convection each day. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Any lingering stratocu dissipates early this evening leaving cirrus for the overnight. Expect another round of mountain valley fog overnight with restrictions reaching KAVL. Some cirrus lingers through the day with some high based VFR stratocu for the afternoon. Winds become light N to NE this evening and continue into the morning. Winds pick up from the W to NW for the afternoon. NW with low end gusts at KAVL. Outlook: No significant chance of convection until Wednesday with an even better chance Thursday into Friday. Mountain valley fog and low stratus is possible each morning. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ JCW/RWH  848 FXUS63 KDLH 232320 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 620 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The next chance for showers and storms will be late Monday night through Tuesday. - Severe storms are possible, particularly Tuesday afternoon and evening with the passage of a cold front. - Seasonal, dry conditions return for the later part of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Current Conditions/Tonight: Gorgeous conditions across the Northland this afternoon with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 70s. Surface high pressure starts to shift to the east tonight with another dose of cool temperatures expected. Low temperatures tonight will dip back into the 40s with our colder spots likely falling into the upper 30s again. Monday: Surface high pressure will have been shunted off to the east with southerly warm air advection moving back into the Northland. High temperatures will increase a couple degrees from the previous day with some isolated spots seeing low 80s. Precipitation chances increase late Monday and into Tuesday as a Low pressure system moves across Canada. Some of the CAMs are quite bullish with the onset of precipitation initially in the early evening hours as a weak shortwave rounds the upper level ridge in place ahead of the approaching system. For now, we have limited PoPs to 15% as soundings still look fairly dry during this time period and the strength of the available forcing does not look overly strong with height rises still in play aloft. Better forcing for ascent arrives later into the night as the system moves across the Northern Plains with a cold front sliding into the Red River Valley. The warm sector ahead of the cold front in our CWA will be able to generate some instability with MUCAPE projected to be around 1000 J/kg. Bulk shear is pretty minimal through Tuesday morning and mid level lapse rates are not overly favorable so current thinking is that any storms that do fire off will remain sub severe producing small hail. The strongest storms look to remain to the west at this time where SPC has a marginal risk outlined. However, this could shift east into our region. Right now the HRRR is the most aggressive of the CAMs with a linear complex marching across northern MN in the morning hours. Still have a healthy amount of skepticism in this scenario with mean wind flow not overly strong and no sustainable boundary present in the models during that timeframe. Tuesday: Lingering showers and storms in the morning are possible, especially across northern MN. Another round of showers and storms are expected to develop in the afternoon as the low pressure and associated frontal boundaries cross the Northland. Instability recovery from the morning activity will have to be monitored but the current expectation is for the region to see MUCAPE bounce back to over 1000 J/kg as surface temperates heat up into the upper 70s and 80s. Bulk shear will also see a slight uptick as mid level flow increases with a small jet streak rounding the base of the trough. With these ingredients in play we could see some isolated severe storms capable of producing 1" hail and damaging winds. SPC has a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) outlined for most of our region except near the Brainerd Lakes area. Best timing for severe storms to initiate still looks to be in the afternoon and evening hours. Wednesday-Friday: Low pressure will be sliding into the Great Lakes on Wednesday with some lingering showers and storms possible through the day. Any storms that do manage to form would likely not be severe as the mid level flow will be weaker and not capable of sustaining strong updrafts. Northerly flow will stream back into the region with highs back in the 70s through the end of the work week. The upper level pattern maintains northwest flow with the 12Z suite of deterministic guidance keeping activity out of the region as surface high pressure expands across Manitoba and through the Upper Midwest. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions this evening are expected to deteriorate early Saturday morning with MVFR to IFR fog expected for HIB and HYR. Conditions should improve with sunrise. Light winds expected Monday. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 No expected marine hazards in the near term forecast. High pressure over the region will be sliding to the east on tomorrow. Easterly winds of 5 to 10 knots currently over the Lake will switch to out of the south tonight. By Monday afternoon these winds will switch to out of the northeast. Rain and storm chances will return early Tuesday morning and linger through Wednesday. Some storms may be strong to severe Tuesday afternoon and evening. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Surface high pressure over the region today providing mostly sunny skies and dry conditions with Min RHs falling into the 30s across the region. About the same for tomorrow as the high pressure exits to the east. Low fire weather concerns with light winds today. Tomorrow winds will switch to out of the south but still remain weak enough that fire weather concerns remain low. Rain and storm chances return Monday night and linger through Wednesday. Largely scattered activity through the period with some severe storms possible, most likely Tuesday afternoon and evening as a cold front moves across the region. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Britt AVIATION...Levens MARINE...Britt FIRE WEATHER...Britt  906 FXUS63 KFGF 232320 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 620 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Hail to the size of golf balls and wind gusting to 70 mph will be the main threats. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...Synopsis... Northwest flow prevails this afternoon into the evening, gradually becoming zonal overnight. Showers and isolated thunderstorms could work into parts of eastern North Dakota overnight as warm air advection increases ahead of an approaching shortwave. Upper flow then becomes slightly southwest late overnight into Monday morning. This will be in response to the shortwave and weak upper low moving across southern Manitoba late Monday into Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected as the associated cold front sweeps across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, with a chance for isolated severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Warm air advection ahead of the front will allow afternoon temperatures to climb well into the 80s across most of the area. Slightly cooler temps return on Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain chances Late Tuesday through Thursday will be minimal, with PoPs increasing once more late Friday into the weekend. ...Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Late Monday... Severe thunderstorm coverage on Monday afternoon and evening will depend heavily on the timing of an approaching cold front. Warm air advection will be strong through much of the day across eastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota; however, with remnant shower activity on Monday morning potentially lingering, this could shorten the window of potential severe weather late Monday. Looking at CAMs, there are several potential scenarios, ranging from potential splitting supercells, to elevated clusters. Model soundings are consistent with nearly straight hodographs as the front approaches, which continue to support splitting supercells and hybrid clusters. As such, a high end scenario supports supercells developing west of the Red River during the late afternoon, with hazards including wind gusts to 75 mph and large hail to the size of golf balls. A more likely scenario would be that we have lingering convective inhibition later into the afternoon, thus delaying convection until later in the evening. This would still support wind gusts up to 70 mph, but would transition into mainly an elevated hail scenario that extends into the early overnight hours. With this later scenario, we could see isolated severe thunderstorms lingering into Tuesday morning across parts of northwest Minnesota. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The main challenge throughout the TAF period will be shower and thunderstorm activity. Thunderstorms near KMOT will push eastward this evening, impacting KDVL before midnight. At KGFK and KTVF, showers are likely, but the probability for thunder is lower, therefore no -TSRA mention at these TAF sites at this time. Clouds will thin out with showers/storms decreasing in coverage Monday morning. Southerly winds of 10 to 14 knots accompanied by a few gusts to 20 knots within the Red River Valley will prevail Monday afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development may occur late Monday afternoon and evening, persisting into the overnight beyond the end of this TAF period. At this time, predictability in where storms form along with their coverage precludes any mention of them within the last few hours of the TAF. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...Rafferty  916 FXUS66 KOTX 232321 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 421 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming and drying trend Monday and Tuesday - Minor to moderate heatrisk Tuesday with highs in the 90s. - Breezy winds Wednesday into Thursday with elevated fire weather conditions. && .SYNOPSIS... Isolated thunderstorms will move out of the area this evening and winds will subside. Temperatures warm Monday into Tuesday with afternoon highs in the 90s by Tuesday. The heat begins to break down Wednesday into Thursday with an increasing risk for breezy winds and mountain thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... This evening and tonight: Showers and thunderstorms impacting northeastern Washington and North Idaho will track to the east and come to an end before 6PM this evening. Gusty winds across the region will also subside with quiet weather conditions returning to the Inland NW overnight. Monday-Tuesday: The next low pressure settles into the Eastern Pacific allowing downstream heights to amplify over the Inland NW. This will promote a warming and drying trend with temperatures rebounding into the 80s to lower 90s Monday then 90s Tuesday. Winds will be light with diurnal, terrain influence. The greatest impacts to ongoing fires will be the warm and dry conditions along with increasing instability Tuesday afternoon as mixing heights increase near 10K ft AGL or higher. Wednesday-Thursday: The low pressure system off the coast will begin its slow journey inland. The latest consensus amongst the forecast models are for weaker impulses slinging out ahead of the main low to come through Tuesday night and again Wednesday. These impulses will help draw midlevel moisture northward toward the region though the moistening will be subtle and forcing weak leading to low confidence for high based showers and thunderstorms. The first wave arrives Tuesday with a glancing blow to far southeastern WA and the lower Idaho Panhandle. The second, slightly stronger impulse comes through Wednesday with a 5-20% chance for thunderstorms across the Idaho Panhandle and mountains along the International Border. The upper-low will eventually swing inland across southwestern BC/NW MT Wednesday night into Thursday. Timing will be key to how the winds play out Wednesday afternoon. At this time, timing suggest the low will close enough by late afternoon and early evening for winds to increase slightly during peak heating then continue to ramp up through the evening and overnight hours as cooler air floods inland. This would suggest a short period of breezy conditions overlapping with the hot/dry conditions. However, as previously mentioned, if timing is sooner, we could be looking at another critical fire weather day. Thursday does look breezy to windy across the region similar to what is occurring today (Sunday) as temperatures cool back from the 90s Wednesday to 80s Thursday. Would not rule out additional showers and storms along the Canadian border Wednesday night into Thursday with coverage largely isolated. Friday-Sunday: We see a lot more spread in the model guidance for late week into the weekend with the evolution of the next trough of low pressure. The general message is similar across the board that the Pac NW will continue to be influenced by another trough but how this comes through comes with many different flavors. Some are windy while others not so much. Same message for thunderstorm threats. The greatest confidence comes with temperatures being at or below normal for this time-frame and little to no signals widepsread precipitaiton events. /sb && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs: Otherwise, dry westerly flow will promote VFR conditions for all TAF sites along with breezy west to southwest winds through this evening. These winds will quickly decrease between 1z-4z this evening. Winds will slowly shift toward the north and northeast for KMWH, KGEG, KCOE, KPUW overnight. High clouds will filter in from the south in the late morning to early afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Main uncertainty and potential for forecast updates will be smoke into KEAT driving down visibility below 6SM. This comes with lower confidence given the elevated winds in place. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 53 87 55 94 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Coeur d'Alene 53 86 55 95 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Pullman 46 86 50 95 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Lewiston 56 92 60 99 66 95 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Colville 43 85 46 94 51 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Sandpoint 46 82 50 91 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 Kellogg 51 84 53 94 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 Moses Lake 54 89 57 95 59 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 61 88 64 94 68 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 53 88 58 93 63 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until 2 PM PDT Monday for Central Chelan County-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County. ID...None. && $$  015 FXUS63 KEAX 232323 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 623 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...00z Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... * Showers with a few embedded lightning strikes expected tonight mainly west of a line from Lamoni- Moberly MO. Rainfall amounts are expected to be light totaling less than 0.25". * Temperatures warm to mid week ahead of a cold front moving through the region. * Breezy southerly winds expected next weekend, with the potential of showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Isentropic lift on the 305-310K surfaces is leading to weak shower activity building into the area from Nebraska and eastern KS. Very dry air in the subcloud layer (nearly 10K feet) is going to limit what reaches the ground, but could see a few sprinkles along the Missouri/KS state late through the afternoon into the early evening hours. Towards midnight, low level warm air/moisture advection leads to weak instability and could see spotty scattered showers develop. Instability remains quite weak with moist adiabatic lapse rates aloft, but still should be able to support weak showers with an embedded lightning strike here and there. 06Z NAM NEST hinted at the potential for heavy rainfall with this activity overnight, but successive model runs have contained precipitable water values to ~1.5" (which is near normal for this time of year). Expect accumulating precip to largely be west of a line from Lamoni Iowa to Moberly MO with surface high to the east limiting eastward extent of the precipitation shield. Low level warm air advection weakens after 12Z Monday and expect shower activity to weaken and shift southeast with time as short wave builds east. Partial clearing should allow for a decent temperature recovery on Monday, and even warmer conditions Tuesday into Wednesday as upper ridge across the west expands east. Ridge riding shortwave is expected to build into the Upper Midwest Wednesday, with trailing cold front moving through the region Wednesday morning. Could see a few showers and storms with the frontal passage, but timing may limit coverage. Surface ridge moves through the region on Thursday with stronger return flow Friday into next weekend. With the gulf wide open, ample moisture in place for showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Have largely went with VFR conditions across the sites throughout the TAF period. This in response to hi-res/CAM trends pushing scattered showers / convection further to the S/SW of the terminals overnight tonight. The most likely exception, at this time, appears to be KSTJ as a weakening complex of showers may be moving SE out of Nebraska. There has been enough run to run consistency to have a mention, a PROB30 for possible MVFR showers. Otherwise, expect light to variable winds overnight, eventually establishing out of the E to ESE. Daytime speeds may approach up to around 10 kts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...Curtis  957 FXUS64 KOHX 232322 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 622 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 617 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Drier with cooler evening and overnight periods through Tuesday. Fog is possible across the river valleys each morning. - Low to medium rain and storm chances, mainly mid week, with seasonal temperatures that continue into next weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The 00Z sounding at OHX is barely underway, but already we can tell you that the temperature and dew point curves are miles apart, so that's pretty much all you need to know about the state of the atmosphere this evening. It feels wonderful outside, with the humidity at a nadir and a pleasant north breeze coming in. High pressure over the upper midwest is bringing us this cooler, less humid air mass. The next two mornings promise to be several degrees cooler than normal, and the next opportunity for active weather won't come our way until Wednesday. Although summer is far from over, you can almost hear autumn knocking at the door. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Water vapor imagery shows a broad area of drier air aloft and northwesterly flow across the region and we finally got a taste of cooler, drier air this morning behind the front that moved through last night. This is a welcomed air mass which will promote continued stable conditions and cooler evenings and overnights through Monday as high pressure moves to our north. We currently do not have any mentionable rain chances through the short-term as a result. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Medium-range guidance and ensembles suggest little change in the background weather pattern through the upcoming week. Generally speaking, ridging will remain out west with a trough across the east. However, the trough should slowly move east mid to late week which will allow for a bit of moisture return from the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will foster showers and a few thunderstorms mid week. Better coverage of convection is possible with passing shortwaves progged during this timeframe and we'll have to see if we get any severe weather since we'll remain in modest mid-level flow. Too early to tell right now. Overall the temperature forecast is pretty close to seasonal norms mid to late week and guidance is on the drier side late week into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions persist this taf cycle with light northerly winds. A mid-level cloud deck around 6000 ft is streaming in from the northwest and this will lead to episodes of SCT to BKN cloud coverage through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 62 89 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 61 87 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 58 82 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 63 90 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 60 84 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 59 82 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 62 88 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 62 89 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 63 87 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Rose SHORT TERM...Sizemore LONG TERM....Sizemore AVIATION.....Baggett  069 FXUS63 KLBF 232324 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 624 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few strong thunderstorms are possible this evening, mainly west of Highway 83. Large hail, damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible. - Strong to severe storms will remain possible Monday and Tuesday, mainly during the late afternoon and evening hours. The area of concern will remain mainly west of Highway 83. - Periodic disturbances will move through northwest flow aloft, leading to daily chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Late this afternoon and tonight...an upper ridge will remain centered over New Mexico, with a west-northwest flow aloft across the Northern and Central Plains. A disturbance currently located over eastern WY will track southeast across southwest SD and the Nebr. panhandle late this afternoon, with isolated thunderstorms developing. With SBCAPEs exceeding 3500 J/kg west of Highway 61 and effective bulk shear near 40kts, a few strong storms are possible late this afternoon and evening, mainly west of Highway 83. The severe threat would be large hail, damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain, with the 18Z KLBF sounding indicating 1.57 inches PWAT. Elevated showers and a few storms will persist this afternoon into tonight across the east, mainly east of Highway 183. This will be where weak WAA exist near 700mb as a weak 700mb trough progresses eastward and the low level jet increases after midnight. Monday and Monday night...A surface trough is forecast to extend south to north along the eastern panhandle to along the leeside of the Black Hills by mid afternoon. Strong afternoon heating across the west with highs reaching the low to mid 90s. Isolated storms are shown to develop along this surface trough and move east and southeast during the late afternoon and evening hours. A few storms could be strong to severe with large hail with any isolated discrete storms into early evening. With time, storms may merge with cold pools, with damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall becoming the primary severe threat into the evening hours. The area of greater concern will be for areas west of Valentine through Hayes Center, where SPC has a Slight Risk for severe storms. Instability will be adequate to around 2500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 40kts. Storms will gradually diminish and exit southeastern areas after midnight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Tuesday, the potential again for strong to severe storms. A warm front is shown to extend across the southern panhandle to near the NE/KS border. Moderate instability and 35KT of effective shear will be present to support scattered storms mainly south of HIghway 2. A Slight Risk for severe storms is forecast by SPC for areas generally south of I80. The active pattern continues Wednesday through Sunday, as an upper ridge center persists across AZ and NM. This will place the region in northwest flow aloft, favorable for evening and overnight convection. High temperatures will range mostly in the low to mid 80s Wednesday through Thursday, then heating into the low 90s western Sandhills and southwest Friday through Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north central Nebraska tonight and tomorrow. While showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of western Nebraska, ceilings and visibility remain VFR at this time. Overnight, expect a low level jet to generate additional thunderstorms across portions of north central Nebraska. At this time, LLWS concerns are not expected at KLBF or KVTN, however, winds around 2,000 ft agl may reach near or slightly above 30 knots late this evening as the low level jet begins in earnest. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Richie  126 FXUS63 KLMK 232325 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 725 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry and pleasant conditions are expected to continue through Tuesday. * Warmer temperatures (mid to upper 80s) and chances for showers and storms return by mid week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 232 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Calm winds and clear skies will allow for the potential of fog development tonight. Patchy fog and areas of valley fog are expected through the early morning hours, especially north and west of I64. Surface high pressure will remain over the Ohio Valley with an upper level trough to the NE and a ridge to the west. Northwesterly flow will keep high temperatures in the mid 80s, and lows in the upper 50s low 60s through Tuesday afternoon. Dewpoints will remain in the mid to upper 50s allowing for a very pleasant and comfortable start to the work week. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 232 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 As the surface high pressure moves off to the east, an upper level trough and low pressure system will move into the Great Lakes region. A shortwave disturbance and frontal boundary will bring rain chances back into the forecast for the later half of the week. By Wednesday afternoon/evening, southwesterly flow will return and bring moisture back into the region. PWAT values are expected to be back above 1" for the remainder of the week. A weak upper level disturbance will move through the region Wednesday into Thursday bringing scattered showers and storms. At this time, no severe threats are expected. Thursday evening, a cold front will begin to push into the Ohio Valley allowing for another round of rain and possible storms. Guidance is currently showing ample instability for storm development, however effective bulk shear is weak. Therefore, any storms that do form could have the potential to become strong but severe threats are not currently expected. Post frontal boundary, daytime temperatures are expected to remain around normal in the mid to upper 80s. A drier airmass will also likely move in for a pleasant day on Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 725 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Winds should become light and variable overnight, with VFR conditions likely at most terminals. There is a chance for MVFR or lower visibilities due to patchy fog before sunrise Monday, mainly at HNB, though confidence in this is low given drier air mixing down this afternoon. Light winds and VFR conditions are expected again during the day on Monday. Most of the gradient winds should be out of a NW direction. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CAL LONG TERM...CAL AVIATION...BJS  130 FXUS63 KMPX 232325 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 625 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Next chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday, some chance for severe with marginal (1 of 5) risks. - Generally near normal temperatures over the next week, but slightly warmer than normal on Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 127 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Similar today to what we experienced yesterday with high pressure still present over the Upper Midwest. More diurnal cumulus as well as the atmosphere has heated, but lighter winds aloft have preventing a repeat of yesterday's gusty winds. Tonight will also be similar to last night with ample radiational cooling and some patchy fog in the cooler locations. The high moving out and a shift in the pattern will make this cooler area mainly across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. For western Minnesota, there has been a shift in the rain chances for tonight with most of the rain now most likely to stay south/west of the Minnesota River Valley and be kept within southwest Minnesota and areas farther to the southwest. Maybe parts of Martin County could see rain, but overall we look to miss out on this round. Monday and Tuesday will be driven by the shortwave moving across the Canadian Prairies with the fronts associated with it moving across the Upper Midwest. There will be a warming trend Monday and Tuesday as warm air advection associated with the circulation around this system occurs. This will come to an end as the cold frontal passage occurs, most likely in the later half of Tuesday. We could see some storms occur the later half of Monday into Tuesday morning associated more with the warm air advection and warm front with the support of a jet streak. Any severe chances here would be more in North Dakota and northwest Minnesota, but some chances extend further south into west central Minnesota as shown by the SPC marginal (1 of 5) risk. The better chance for some more widespread rain and storm chances will be the cold frontal passage later in the day on Tuesday. The main questions here will be familiar if you have been reading discussions over the past few days: timing of the frontal passage and moisture. If we had more moisture present this could easily be a fairly widespread event, but that still is a limiting factor in not just global ensemble solutions, but now CAMs as well. On the timing side it will be locations with frontal passage later in the day, as instability is able to build some, that could see convection come together. This should keep activity generally across eastern MN and western WI. With the questionable moisture rain will be very dependent on CI rather than the larger scale synoptic forcing of the front. So this will be the usual some winners and many losers with respect to the rain that we need. The rain deficit for the summer continues to grow with drought now across much of the broader region. Shear does not look great, so some doubt about higher end severe and sustained deep convection. This lines up with the SPC marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for areas along and east of I-35. Cooler air moves in on Wednesday behind the cold front, with temperatures still near normal. Rain chances related to some lift closer to the surface low will generally stay to our north across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday. Thursday into Friday morning higher pressure moves in with quiet weather and near normal temps. Late Friday into the next weekend is when our next system moves in. Differences between both the deterministic global models and their ensemble systems still have NBM PoPs spread out over this period. This should start to cluster more as it approaches to get a better idea of when this next system is most likely to occur. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Mainly clear early this evening, then increasing mid/high clouds overnight. Light and variable winds this evening will become south 5-10 kts Monday. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind SW 10-20 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts. THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NDC AVIATION...Borghoff  060 FXUS64 KLIX 232323 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 623 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 614 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Daily scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast during the mid to late afternoon hours through the work week. A few storms could become strong to severe each day. The main threat from any severe storms will be damaging wind gusts. Frequent lightning and brief periods of heavy rain will also be possible from these storms. Stay weather aware and remember when thunder roars, go indoors. - The increase in rain chances and cloud cover will help limit heat threats through the week, however, heat index values will still approach advisory criteria each day by early afternoon. Those with outdoor plans should continue to take precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses. Stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade or air conditioning if possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Tonight through Wednesday, upper level ridging will remain in place over the area to the west, and we will enter the "ring of fire" pattern. Southerly surface winds will continue to help advect warm air and moisture into the area, increasing the humidity across the region. Daily isolated to scattered showers and storms will be expected for the next few days, but especially tomorrow as a lingering weakness influences the area. These storms where they occur will have the potential for frequent lightning and gusty subsevere winds (40- 50mph). These storms are not expected to be severe, based on recent model trends. The heat continues as ridging builds back over the area. Highs in the upper 90s to low 100s combined with heat index values in the 105-112 degrees range will be quite warm and uncomfortable. Given the uncertainties with cloud cover for Monday, we held off on issuing a heat advisory for now. It will be looked at again on the next forecast cycle. Tuesday and Wednesday will be hot and advisories may be needed. Be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if you will be spending time outdoors. MSW && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Saturday night) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 High pressure begins to break down over the area for the rest of the workweek into next weekend. Southerly surface winds will continue to advect warm and moist air into the region, increasing humidities for the area. Daily scattered showers or storms will be possible during peak heating hours as we return to a more normal summertime pattern. The main risk with these storms where they occur would be frequent lightning and gusty winds (30-50mph). The heat will linger with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values in the 105-110 degree range, it will be quite uncomfortable outside. So, be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if spending time outdoors. MSW && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The main concern will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms moving into the area during the mid to late afternoon hours Monday. Some of these showers and thunderstorms will have potential to become strong to locally severe. Expect thunderstorms to affect each terminal at some point Monday afternoon. For the time being have included only tempo groups for thunderstorms with winds of 15kt and mvfr vis but as confidence in timing and intensity increase, these forecasts will continue to be refined. && .MARINE... Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Surface high pressure centered over the central Gulf will maintain a generally weak pressure gradient through much of the period. Weak and variable winds around 5 to 10 knots will become W then SW to start the week. A predominantly light southerly flow will set up by mid week and remain through the end of the week. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible with winds and waves higher in and near this activity. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSW LONG TERM....MSW AVIATION...DM MARINE...MSW  085 FXUS65 KABQ 232324 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 524 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 517 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms will decrease in coverage again Monday, then increase in coverage Tuesday through Thursday, with a risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, and ponding of water on roads. - A risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will develop with storms along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains both Tuesday and Wednesday. - Moderate-to-high heat risk will impact much of central and eastern New Mexico during the first half of the week, then spread to western areas as well during the latter half of the week with near-record high temperatures each day. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1211 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Upper level high pressure remains squarely planted over NM with central 500 mb heights of about 597-598 decameters. This is keeping temperatures generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal. This orientation of the high has not offered any recent moisture intrusions to come into the state, but earlier monsoon moisture has been getting recycled with daily rounds of storms producing small, but mighty footprints. More stability has wrapped into the southeastern and south central areas of the forecast area, inhibiting storms there, and this has shoved the focus for convective initiation into the western and northern high terrain. The other feature of significance is a small perturbation riding in the weak westerly flow over CO which will spawn storms through the afternoon, and cold pools from these cells should eventually lead to a few more storms into northern NM through the evening. Any storms that make into northeastern NM could find localized shear enhancements near this cold pool, and could briefly turn strong to severe through the evening. Elsewhere outflows will keep low, but present, storm prospects in the northern and central valleys this evening with very low probabilities for airmass storms in the east central plains. Leftover cloud debris will then be slow to clear through the morning Monday. Conditions on Monday will be similar with another small shortwave trough moving on the northern periphery of the high into CO, likely igniting additional storms that will sag into northern NM. A moist backdoor frontal boundary will also be seeping into northeastern NM, potentially aiding in convective initiation while also introducing more shear for additional strong cells. Instability will expand a bit southward, introducing low storm chances for the central to south central highlands and mountains along with a more southward extent of the eastern plains. Temperatures will remain hot and above normal with only a degree or two of "cooling" in the northeast while southeastern zones gain as much. This will push Roswell to 105, Heat Advisory criteria for the area, so after coordination with neighboring offices, this advisory statement will be issued with this forecast package for Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1211 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Upper level high pressure will move very little through the mid week period, only sagging a bit southwestward near the AZ-NM border with 500 mb heights remaining in a 596-598 decameter range. Temperatures will remain hot and above normal with backdoor frontal intrusions only offering a couple to a few degrees of cooling in northeastern to east central zones Tuesday and more-so on Wednesday. With the high positioning slightly southwestward, this will introduce more northwesterly flow aloft over the northeastern NM zones. This coupled with northerly or easterly surface winds, will raise bulk shear values and increase the severe threat while higher dewpoints, upslope, and surface convergence also contribute. Storm coverage may undergo a slight reduction over the southwestern mountains and Continental Divide Tuesday and Wednesday, but should regain potential into Thursday as the moist backdoor frontal air mass gets convectively aided and shoved farther west. Into Friday, the high would remain close to the AZ-NM border with storms being reliant on diurnal heating and recycling of Thursday's moisture. By next weekend, the upper high looks to weaken and begin elongating west-to-east with drier air pivoting into NM from the northwest. The GFS and GEFS ensemble mean hints at another shortwave dropping into northeastern NM which would generate additional storms, but European and Canadian solutions do not appear as favorable. Consequently, the forecast for next weekend leans on the drier side with temperatures running a few to several degrees above normal for all areas. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 522 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A paltry crop of showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact much of northern and western NM through the evening. Much of the convection should diminish around sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Storms will continue to be capable of brief downpours and gusty downburst winds up to 35kt. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Monday afternoon, though a little less coverage is likely. Storms will favor the high terrain and northeast NM. Gusty and erratic winds and brief downpours that may reduce visibility will be the main concerns with these storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1211 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Upper level high pressure will remain stronger than normal for the next several days, generally keeping temperatures 5 to 12 degrees above average. However, sufficient monsoon moisture remains in place over western and northern NM where storms will develop through this evening, and a weak disturbance in Colorado may assist northern NM areas as it dips closer. An increase in storms is still forecast for northeastern NM Monday and Tuesday before multiplying across the eastern half of the state on Wednesday. The catalyst for this increase will be weak, but moist backdoor fronts that will slide in from the northeast, however they will not provide much in the way of temperature relief. Afternoon humidity will commonly drop to 12 to 20% each day, but the incoming backdoor fronts will allow humidity to recover better, particularly in northeastern areas where morning recoveries will reach 60-80% by mid week. Unfortunately, western zones will still observe only meager humidity recoveries of 40-60% in the mornings. There are indications that storms will reduce in number Friday into next weekend, but the above normal temperatures look to persist. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 64 94 63 95 / 20 5 0 5 Dulce........................... 51 91 51 92 / 20 10 10 20 Cuba............................ 59 90 59 92 / 30 10 20 10 Gallup.......................... 57 90 57 92 / 30 30 20 20 El Morro........................ 56 85 56 87 / 20 30 20 30 Grants.......................... 58 90 59 91 / 30 30 20 20 Quemado......................... 58 87 58 89 / 20 20 20 30 Magdalena....................... 63 89 64 90 / 10 20 10 20 Datil........................... 58 86 59 87 / 20 20 20 20 Reserve......................... 58 93 58 95 / 10 20 10 20 Glenwood........................ 63 98 64 100 / 10 10 5 20 Chama........................... 52 84 52 84 / 20 30 20 40 Los Alamos...................... 63 87 64 87 / 40 30 20 40 Pecos........................... 59 90 59 90 / 20 20 20 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 55 85 56 85 / 40 20 30 40 Red River....................... 45 78 45 78 / 40 30 30 50 Angel Fire...................... 39 82 36 82 / 30 40 40 50 Taos............................ 55 89 56 89 / 30 20 20 30 Mora............................ 55 86 55 84 / 20 40 40 60 Espanola........................ 61 94 59 94 / 40 20 20 20 Santa Fe........................ 62 90 62 90 / 20 20 20 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 61 93 60 94 / 20 10 20 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 95 69 96 / 20 10 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 69 96 70 97 / 20 5 10 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 63 98 63 99 / 20 5 10 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 98 70 98 / 20 5 20 10 Belen........................... 67 98 67 99 / 20 5 10 5 Bernalillo...................... 66 97 67 98 / 20 5 20 10 Bosque Farms.................... 63 98 64 98 / 20 5 10 10 Corrales........................ 67 98 68 99 / 20 5 20 10 Los Lunas....................... 65 98 66 98 / 20 5 10 10 Placitas........................ 66 94 67 95 / 20 10 20 10 Rio Rancho...................... 68 97 69 97 / 20 5 20 10 Socorro......................... 70 99 71 100 / 10 10 10 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 90 64 91 / 20 20 20 20 Tijeras......................... 64 91 64 92 / 20 10 20 20 Edgewood........................ 60 91 61 92 / 20 20 20 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 56 93 58 93 / 10 20 20 30 Clines Corners.................. 60 90 61 90 / 20 20 20 20 Mountainair..................... 60 91 61 93 / 10 20 10 20 Gran Quivira.................... 61 91 61 92 / 10 20 10 20 Carrizozo....................... 67 95 68 96 / 0 10 10 20 Ruidoso......................... 53 89 59 89 / 0 20 10 40 Capulin......................... 55 87 55 85 / 30 40 50 70 Raton........................... 55 91 55 89 / 30 50 40 70 Springer........................ 56 93 56 91 / 30 30 30 60 Las Vegas....................... 57 90 57 88 / 20 30 20 60 Clayton......................... 65 96 65 93 / 30 20 60 50 Roy............................. 60 93 61 91 / 20 20 40 50 Conchas......................... 67 101 67 98 / 20 10 30 30 Santa Rosa...................... 66 98 66 95 / 20 5 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 69 101 68 98 / 20 5 30 20 Clovis.......................... 70 100 69 99 / 10 5 20 20 Portales........................ 71 102 70 101 / 5 5 20 20 Fort Sumner..................... 69 101 69 99 / 20 0 20 20 Roswell......................... 71 105 72 103 / 0 0 0 5 Picacho......................... 67 99 67 98 / 0 10 10 10 Elk............................. 63 94 64 94 / 0 10 5 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for NMZ238. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...34  107 FXUS65 KCYS 232325 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 525 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lower coverage of showers and thunderstorms today, mainly further south near the Colorado border and western Nebraska. Brief strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall expected with this activity into this evening. - Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue Monday through the end of the week with slightly above average temperature expected until Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 252 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Another active afternoon and evening is forecast. Storms have already begun to appear on radar early this afternoon, albeit not many. Coverage of storms will likely be less than yesterday with more dry air present from westerly winds aloft. A weak dryline is also present on observations across the CWA, roughly running along the Interstate 25 corridor. Behind the dryline remains fairly quiet with just a few cumulus fields. Ahead of the dryline is where storms currently are in Nebraska. The Nebraska panhandle is also where the highest instability is, with mesoanalysis suggesting more than 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE. Shear is decent, but likely not enough to get very strong storms. A few isolated severe storms are likely, with initial discrete cells posing a hail risk. As afternoon progresses to evening, the threat will switch to more of a wind one, with storm clusters entering the far western portion of the CWA. The intensity of these storms will be weaker than the ones in the Nebraska panhandle, but severe wind gusts will still be possible due to DCAPE values in excess of 1200 J/kg from the dry surface. Showers and storms will continue through the evening hours with a few lingering showers possible after midnight. Rinse and repeat the same song and dance again for Monday. The environment looks similar to Sunday but with better forcing from an upper-level shortwave moving through the ridge. Coverage and intensity of storms on Monday will likely depend largely on where the weak dryline can set up. Some models push the dryline far enough east out of the CWA where the more intense storms will not impact the forecast area. Newer CAM guidance has begun to recede the dryline further back into the Nebraska panhandle which will likely result in storm development during the afternoon hours. Initial discrete cells that develop will pose more of hail threat, but will shift more towards a wind threat as they cluster. Much like Sunday, showers and weaker storms will enter the western portion of the CWA during the evening and move eastward. Wind will be the primary concern with these given the drier low-levels and high DCAPE values. Severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Showers will linger through the overnight hours. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 252 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 No major changes to the overall long term forecast as we see conditions slightly warmer than average to start the period and then by the end of the week into next weekend we warm back up to several degrees above average with monsoonal moisture providing a daily chance of thunderstorms with a low end severe risk generally expected each day. At the upper levels, a strong ridge of high pressure will control the Western US, and should continue to hold control until the end of the week when a deep low will approach the western Canadian coastline. This feature may begin to move inland and could interrupt our pattern by late next weekend, but until then expect largely similar conditions each day. Moisture at the surface may begin to slowly dwindle, and by the late week into the weekend elevated fire weather concerns may begin to arise as minimum daytime RH values drop back into the teens. Still, daily PWAT values will sit around 120-130% of normal, and between daytime instability and weak disturbances riding the periphery of the ridge, we should still see thunderstorm chances each afternoon with a low end severe threat possible. At the surface meanwhile, a cold front will stall out on Tuesday and then begin advancing back eastwards as a warm front but should become very slow moving to even stationary, helping to fuel storm initiation through the end of the week. Overall it will be more of the same as we remain in a fairly stagnant pattern through the period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 525 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals for the duration of this TAF period. An exception may be where a shower and/or thunderstorm comes near or over a site, primarily KAIA and KSNY, reducing CIGs and VIS briefly. If this happens, look for an AMD TAF. Generally breezy conditions with winds 10-20 knots for the remainder of the day for the southeast Wyoming terminals. Winds will weaken overnight through tomorrow morning to 10 kts or less. Then ramp back up after 18Z Sunday with gusts back up to around 20 knots. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SF LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...RZ  236 FXUS63 KABR 232327 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 627 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) across central SD and a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) along and west of the James River this evening. The main concerns will be golf ball size hail, wind gusts exceeding 60 mph, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall. - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather Monday night. Threat include one golf ball size hail and 60-75 mph gusts. && .UPDATE... Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A weak upper level trough of low pressure currently over western ND still may become the focal point for showers and storms impacting the western CWA later this evening. A few showers and storms are ongoing, with some model guidance suggesting modest intensity over the next few hours. However, the best low level moisture and instability is located mainly west of the CWA, with SBCAPE exceeding 1K J/kg over western SD. Across much of eastern ND, and northeastern SD, surface dewpoints in the 50s with limited moisture advection at this time. As of now, the RRFS is the more robust model solution with convection developing over the western Dakotas. The storms in western SD move eastward toward the CWA around 23-0Z before diminishing. It still maintains a convection complex over southwest ND moving southward into north central SD after 1Z. The lack of a LLJ may limit the overall severe threat with the RRFS showing the storms weakening with time. The past few runs of the HRRR keeps most of the CWA free from severe weather. Overall, the severe threat is best west of the Missouri River where a few storms may produce golf ball size hail and 60-75 mph wind gusts. The pcpn should exit the CWA before 12Z Monday. A frontal boundary will cross the region Monday through Monday night may produce an isolated storm during the day period. Models due indicate convection developing after 0Z Tuesday, with eastern ND having a good potential for storms. A lee of the Black Hills surface low may cause additional storms over central and south central SD. While widespread severe weather is not anticipated, a stronger storm or two could produce golf ball size hail and wind gusts of 60 to 75 mph. After dry conditions midweek, chances for precipitation returns to the forecast area Thursday night through the weekend. Temperatures remain at or above average for this time of year. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are generally forecast through the TAF period. Only exception to this would be any TSRA activity that manages to moves into north central SD (KMBG region) later this evening. Have a PROB30 (03Z-07Z) for this potential currently. Brief MVFR/IFR VSBY is possible in any heavier downpours that happen to move over the TAF site. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TMT DISCUSSION...17 AVIATION...TMT  194 FXUS63 KLOT 232326 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 626 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The next chance of showers and thunderstorms is with a cold front moving across the area midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 135 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The weather pattern across the country for the next week looks to be dominated by a western ridge with troughing over the Great Lakes and Northeast. This leaves our area in northwest flow with pleasant temperatures and generally below average precipitation. Surface high pressure will settle into middle Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes tonight through Monday night. This will result in light/calm winds, low dewpoints, and seasonable temperatures. Once diurnal cumulus dissipates this evening, skies should be clear tonight. The clear skies, low dewpoints, and calm winds should allow for strong radiational cooling. Low temperatures tonight should drop into the 50s, coolest away from the urban heat island where some of the typically colder spots could even dip into the upper 40s. While the boundary layer is dry, the nearly ideal radiational cooling set- up could allow for some areas of ground fog late tonight into early Monday morning, especially the typically fog favored low lying and cold air drainage areas. Monday should be a near carbon copy of today, but with less wind. In fact, not much change in the weather is expected through Tuesday. Later Tuesday into Tuesday night the longwave trough over the Great Lakes is expected to scoot off to the east, but fast on its heels looks to be another shortwave which will help reestablish the long wave trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast. A cold front associated with that next shortwave trough is progged to move across the area sometime Wednesday or Wednesday night. A frontal boundary stalled out across the Gulf States should limit moisture return in advance of this cold front. Despite somewhat marginal moisture return, fairly strong forcing and cooling temps aloft with the approaching upper trough could support some showers/storms when the front moves across the region sometime around Wednesday timeframe. Frontal timing could also play a role in coverage of showers and storms, if the front were to move through at a less diurnally favorable time, that would result in lower storm chances and rainfall amounts. In the wake of the front, another period of sunshine and seasonable temperatures with comfortable humidity looks to be on tap Thursday into Friday. There are some indications the long wave pattern across the CONUS could turn more zonal and potentially lead to more rain chances into next weekend, but that is still far out and confidence not terribly high. - Izzi && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Key Aviation Messages for the current TAF period: - A lake breeze tomorrow afternoon is expected to switch winds to the northeast at the Chicago terminals. Winds are presently out of the northwest with occasional gusts to 20 knots. A lake breeze did develop east of the Chicago terminals, but fell apart and so was removed from the MDW TAF. Winds will gradually diminish and become light after 00Z. There is a low chance for localized MIFG and BCFG at rural terminals overnight, but confidence is low. No significant weather is expected through the TAF period. VFR conditions are expected and northwest winds are expected to turn to the east behind a lake breeze tomorrow afternoon. There is moderate confidence in the timing, but will be re-fined in later TAF packages. DK && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for INZ002. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  188 FXUS64 KLZK 232326 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 626 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 -Relatively cooler temperatures will be seen from today through much of the upcoming week, especially compared to the brutal temperatures felt across Arkansas last week. -A Heat Advisory is in place across southern Arkansas for today as heat index values are expected to reach and exceed 105 degrees. -A Marginal Risk for severe weather is present on Sunday across the northwestern quadrant of the state for a few storms which may produce damaging wind gusts on Sunday evening into the early morning hours on Monday. -Northwesterly flow positioned over Arkansas will continue to allow multiple frontal boundaries to impact the state resulting POP chances on multiple days during the forecast period && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 As of 2 AM CDT, storms are exiting the southeastern portion of the state and moving into Mississippi. SUNDAY into EARLY MONDAY: A Heat Advisory has been introduced for today across southern Arkansas where heat index values are expected to peak between 105 and 109 degrees during this afternoon. It is expected during today for southern Arkansas to remain dry overall which will allow heat index values increase into advisory territory. A chance does exist that the Heat Advisory may need expanding northward along the I-40 corridor, but latest guidance does not warrant this. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) will be in place across the northwestern quadrant or northwestern fourth of the state with the main hazard of damaging wind gusts possible with storms that become severe. A mid-level jet streak over southern Missouri and northeastern Arkansas will result in the right entrance region of the jet to be positioned over northeast Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas. The entrance region will promote or enhance lift which will lead to storm development and the storm motion of east-southeast will result in scattered storms moving into a modest, but conditionally unstable parameter space across the northwestern fourth of Arkansas with projected shear values of 30 to 45 knots to support healthy updrafts along with DCAPE values of 500 to 1,000 J/kg which would support isolated instance of damaging wind gusts. The timing of the storms moving into Arkansas will be Sunday evening into Sunday night. MONDAY through SATURDAY: In the upper lvls, northwesterly flow will continue to be present over Arkansas leading to several days over the forecast period in which POPs will be present across parts of the state. Important to note not all locations will experience appreciable rainfall. POPs will be present across eastern Arkansas on Monday night, a large part of the state on Wednesday into Wednesday night (associated with a series of weak frontal boundaries progged to move across the state from north to south), and isolated parts of the state into the next weekend (associated with a boundary which is progged to become stationary across Arkansas). Temperatures overall during the forecast period will be lower than the brutal temperatures experienced over the last week, but a few days, especially those which lack POP chances and increased cloud cover will allow high temperatures to reach 100 degrees across many location and on the trend of temperatures above normal for this time of the year will continue overall. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR condns are expected thru much of the new TAF PD, w/ scattered precip covg expected fm Nrn to Cntrl AR by 24/12Z Mon mrng. Recent sat imgry depicted incrsg covg of high clouds moving into the region. Expect mid level CIGs to build overnight, but remain VFR. Onset timing of precip is expected around 10-12Z Mon mrng, w/ covg extending SEwrd fm Nrn to Cntrl to SErn AR, w/ VCTS possible after daybreak. E-SErly winds wl prevail thru Mon, w/ some VRB wind gusts possible from any stronger storms that develop near terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 70 87 70 95 / 30 80 30 10 Camden AR 74 96 74 99 / 10 20 20 10 Harrison AR 67 85 69 92 / 70 80 10 10 Hot Springs AR 74 93 74 100 / 20 30 10 10 Little Rock AR 75 90 74 100 / 30 60 30 10 Monticello AR 75 93 75 97 / 10 40 40 20 Mount Ida AR 72 94 72 101 / 10 20 10 10 Mountain Home AR 68 84 68 92 / 60 80 30 10 Newport AR 71 86 70 93 / 20 80 30 10 Pine Bluff AR 73 90 72 97 / 20 50 40 10 Russellville AR 73 91 72 100 / 40 60 10 0 Searcy AR 71 88 70 96 / 20 80 30 10 Stuttgart AR 74 90 73 97 / 30 70 40 20 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ052-053-062>069. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...72  150 FXUS65 KBOI 232325 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 525 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms in southern areas Monday afternoon and early evening. - Little chance of thunderstorms the rest of the week, except a slight chance in the central ID mountains Wednesday afternoon, and near the NV/ID border Friday-Sunday afternoons. - Warming Monday and Tuesday, holding level Wednesday, then gradually cooling the rest of the week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday Night/... Issued 214 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Thunderstorm threat shifting out of Twin Falls County late today then dry through the night. Mid-high level moisture will increase from the southwest overnight and Monday morning with scattered thunderstorms developing by noon in Twin Falls County, early afternoon in Owyhee County, and mid afternoon in southeast Oregon, lasting until sunset. Clouds will increase but storms should stay south of the Snake River in ID, and south of Burns- Ontario in OR. Monday will also be 4 to 8 degrees warmer than today even with increasing clouds, as a short wave ridge aloft comes in from northern California. The ridge and thunderstorms will exit Monday night but further slight warming will continue Tuesday, with high temps reaching the mid-upper 90s in the Snake Basin and 85 to 95 elsewhere. && && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/... Issued 214 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Generally dry and breezy conditions will persist throughout much of the long-term period. Lingering moisture will allow for a 15-30% chance of precipitation and a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, mainly near the ID/NV border and the Central ID Mountains. Beyond Wednesday, troughing off of the west coast will push the moisture south and east of our area. Height falls throughout the period will allow for a slight cooling trend, with temperatures 2-7 degrees above normal throughout the period. Uncertainty begins to increase late this week, following the lifting of the initial trough and associated frontal passage. However, cluster analysis is leaning towards troughing digging back down into the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z Monday through Tuesday/... Issued 520 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026 VFR. Isolated thunderstorms south and east of KTWF this afternoon and early evening. Patchy wildfire smoke in Baker, Malheur, and Harney counties. Surface winds: W-NW 10-20 kt, becoming variable under 12 kts overnight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 5-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: NW 7-12 kt with gusts to around 18 kt this afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for IDZ423-426. OR...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for ORZ670>672. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....CH SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....NF  304 FXUS63 KIND 232329 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 729 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers cannot be ruled out across northeastern counties early this evening - Cooler and less humid through Tuesday - Scattered showers/storms possible Wednesday evening to Thursday && .DISCUSSION (This Evening through Sunday)... Issued at 142 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A progressively drier trend than the last couple weeks continues through much of the upcoming week as high pressure resides over the Ohio Valley for much of the forecast period. Deep upper level ridging will remain tethered for the next several days over the Intermountain West with a largely dry northwest flow over the region. The passage of a cold front late Wednesday into Thursday will present the primary convective risk until the latter part of next weekend. Rest of This Afternoon through Tuesday Night Diurnal cu development has increased with heating as temperatures warm through the 70s. Satellite shows more enhanced cu over the Great Lakes extending south into northern Indiana with a few showers near KFWA in response to the double barreled upper low pinwheeling over Ontario. A piece of energy dropping south on the back side of upper low will pivot across lower Michigan and Lake Erie later this afternoon into the evening and may provide just enough lift in tandem with the steep lapse rates and weakly unstable airmass present to generate stray showers over northeast counties into the early evening. This would be similar to what took place Saturday evening but with lower instability levels limiting the coverage and intensity of any showers. Most will remain dry but any location that gets under a small shower may see a very quick downpour. High pressure will fully settle over the Ohio Valley tonight through much of the first half of the week with quiet weather and abundant sunshine anticipated. Low level thermals support cooler than normal temperatures through Tuesday with highs generally ranging from the mid 70s northeast to the lower 80s in the lower Wabash Valley. Lows will be very comfortable in the 50s the next two nights before return flow Tuesday night nudges lows back up into the low to mid 60s for most of the forecast area. Really cannot ask for a better next 60 hours or so for the region...much deserved after the very active and wet last few weeks. Wednesday through Sunday A weakening upper level low riding overtop of the western ridge will drop into the upper Midwest early Wednesday before becoming absorbed by a broader long wave trough that will amplify across the eastern half of the country for late week. Low pressure and an associated cold front running in tandem with the upper wave will track across the Ohio Valley Wednesday night and early Thursday in a progressively weakened condition as stronger forcing aloft is lost. There will be enough moisture and instability along and immediately ahead of the frontal boundary for scattered convection with the front clearing the forecast area during the day Thursday. High pressure will reestablish in the wake of the frontal passage drifting slowly east through the Great Lakes into Saturday. This bring another multi day stretch of dry weather with seasonable temperatures as highs will focus largely in the low to mid 80s. The ridge will flatten to the west over the weekend opening the possibility for convection to impact the region by late weekend into early next week as multiple waves ride along in the predominantly zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will also rise back into the mid and upper 80s by the end of the forecast period with an uptick in humidity levels. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 728 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Impacts: MVFR in fog possible at outlying terminals 08Z-13Z Discussion: Mainly VFR conditions to continue across central Indiana through Monday evening as Canadian surface high pressure crosses the Midwest. Light northwest breezes early this evening will diminish by 01Z-02Z. Fog/BR is possible at the outlying sites again within 08Z-13Z Monday. Overall light if not variable flow through the remainder of the TAF period...excepting northwest winds sustained up to 3-8KT Monday afternoon and early evening. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ AVIATION...AGM DISCUSSION...Ryan  248 FXUS63 KJKL 232327 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 727 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Noticeably less humid air will continue to prevail early this week, with below normal morning lows. - Temperatures and humidity will increase Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the next cold front, leading to a potential for thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 419 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Largely stacked low pressure just north of the Great Lakes late today will weaken and lift northeast through Monday night. Meanwhile, surface high pressure currently over the mid Mississippi Valley will drift to the Ohio Valley. As this happens, our current inflow of cooler and drier low level air around the high will ease and our upper level flow upstream will flatten. Even though cool/dry advection will taper off, air mass modification will hold off during the short term, which will afford us below normal lows both nights. The flattening upper level flow may allow some high clouds to spill through upstream ridging Monday night, but any clouds i our skies shouldn't have much impact on our temperatures. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 323 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 The long term period begins Tuesday with a subtropical ridge and closed 500 mb high ranging from 594-597 dm centered over the Four Corners region. Elsewhere, an upper-level trough is modeled across the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and New England. Across eastern Kentucky, Tuesday will be fair and quiet with dew points in the 50s, and temperatures in the mid 80s feeling a bit less humid compared to previous days. Overnight, light winds and clear skies may aid in patchy valley fog developing in typical favored river valley locations. With valleys possibly decoupling at night, temperatures in the valleys may cool into the mid to upper 50s, while ridgetops cool into the upper 50s to low 60s, Tuesday night. An upper low modeled over southern Manitoba will progress southeast overnight, ending up in the Upper Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. A surface low will also form in the Great Lakes vicinity. Some high and mid-level clouds may work into the area through Wednesday in advance of the approaching system. By Wednesday evening, as a surface cold front extends from the Great Lakes southwestward through the Ohio Valley and Ozarks, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Wednesday night into Thursday, peaking Thursday ahead of the frontal passage. By Friday, the cold front is expected to have passed east of the Commonwealth, with the trough axis shifting east of the forecast area Friday into Saturday, leaving broad troughing across the eastern US. Lingering moisture along the departing trough may support isolated shower and storm chances Friday afternoon along the VA/KY border. Model and ensemble agreement is poor by next weekend. However, deterministic guidance diverges, with one scenario depicting a shortwave progressing through the Central Plains into portions of the Mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys by Saturday evening into Sunday, which would lead to another round of showers and storms across the area on Sunday. Conversely, an alternate scenario tracks the shortwave farther north into the Ohio Valley. NBM has maintained low-end isolated PoPs for Sunday (15-20%) to reflect this low-confidence scenario. Temperatures should remain slightly above normal for this time of year, in the mid to upper 80s. The CPC 6-10 day outlook supports this thinking. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Valley fog will develop spread overnight and early Monday. It will bring localized IFR or worse conditions, probably affecting KLOZ and KSME TAF sites around dawn. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...HAL  281 FXUS65 KPSR 232328 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 428 PM MST Sun Aug 23 2026 .UPDATE...Updated 00z Aviation Discussion... && .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, some strong to severe, are expected this evening across south-central Arizona. - Increasingly less favorable conditions for thunderstorms will develop starting Monday with virtually no chances for rain from Tuesday through the rest of the week. - High temperatures will reach or exceed 110 degrees nearly every day this week and will be near daily records, while morning lows remain unusually warm. - Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect through Saturday with daily Major to Extreme HeatRisk. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Some upper level jet support and mid-level gravity waves helped spark off a line of high-based scattered showers and storms across southwest AZ this morning. This activity has since weakened and dissipated. Surface-based moisture has also increased across southwest AZ and areas south of I-8. Dew point temperatures at midday in Yuma County to western Pima County were up to 65-75 degrees. This moisture return in southern AZ will likely help fuel later afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Overall, model guidance still suggests this afternoon through this evening becoming a somewhat busy monsoon period. Outside of southern AZ, where the best moisture return was, boundary layer conditions remain similar to the past couple of days with sub-optimal moisture (mixing ratios around 8 g/kg) and limited instability (few hundred J/kg MLCAPE). Initially through much of, if not all of, this afternoon storms should favor higher terrain areas, including portions of La Paz County, and it may even look like it will not become active at all. However, hi-res guidance continues to show the best time period for activity across south-central AZ coming around and after sunset. Guidance shows storms being a bit slower to develop in Pima County, but when they do they do they will have the best potential to become strong to severe, tapping into the best moisture and instability. The storms to the south this evening will then be capable of pushing one or multiple strong and dusty outflows northward into south-central AZ, which may then trigger additional storms. Some hi-res model runs also suggest outflow collisions may occur, with outflows also from the north, but confidence in outflows coming down from northern AZ is low. Additionally, there are indications the storms to the south may develop into an MCV and track northward through Phoenix this evening. Strong to locally severe wind gusts will be the primary weather hazards, with very high DCAPE values up to 1800-2000 J/kg. Localized flash flooding may also become a threat with any slow-moving storms or training of storms, with the best potential southwest of Phoenix where moisture will be highest. Convective chances for Monday are even more uncertain as guidance generally shows at most a 10% chance despite moisture and instability being better than today. However, subsidence will be much stronger on Monday as the subtropical ridge begins to move westward back into our region. We will have to wait until tonight to have a better idea on the storm potential for Monday, but it does seem to be considerably lower than this afternoon/evening. Temperatures today will again be right near record highs with lower desert readings from 110-115 degrees. The increased boundary layer moisture expected for Monday should hold daytime highs down a bit with NBM forecast highs currently between 106-111 degrees, but heat indices will mostly match what are expected today. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecast attention turns away from monsoon storm potential and back toward the extreme heat conditions starting Tuesday. The subtropical high center will continue to shift westward into our region into the middle part of the week with the center likely settling somewhere over southern Arizona from Wednesday through at least Friday or Saturday. Forecast H5 heights are also shown to reach 594-597dm for the latter half of the week which places it just shy of climatological records for late August. NBM temperature guidance remains quite consistent showing highs rising into a 112-116 degree range for the latter half of this week as conditions dry out. Daily temperature records in Phoenix will continue to be in jeopardy through the entire week, but are likely to fall short in Yuma and El Centro. Once the high center moves overhead by Wednesday, rain chances will essentially go to 5% or less. As of now, conditions for any monsoon storm activity do not look good through next weekend. && .AVIATION...Updated at 2315Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: The potential for multiple outflows as well as SHRA/TSRA activity this evening across the Phoenix Airspace will be the main aviation weather challenges throughout the TAF period. Winds through at least 03z, will generally be out of the west, however, a northerly outflow emanating from convective activity over the AZ high country may shift the winds temporary out of the north, especially at KDVT and KSDL, early this evening. Thereafter, a southerly outflow with greater operational impacts is likely sometime between 04-07z timeframe. This outflow is likely to produce gusts in excess of 25-30 kts along with BLDU, which could reduce visibilities to MVFR conditions. Confidence continues to remain low of SHRA/TSRA activity developing along the outflow and as a result a PROB30 group remains in place for this TAF package. The wind forecast heading into late this evening through the overnight is of low confidence due to the possible influence of multiple outflows, and gusty, erratic winds if SHRA/TSRA develop near the terminals. A much quieter day is expected on Monday with the overall wind pattern resuming their typical diurnal tendencies. Cloud bases will remain mostly above 10 kft through the period, with varying coverage this evening due to convective influences. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation concerns under FEW-SCT mid/high cloud decks can be expected throughout the TAF period. At KIPL, winds will generally be out of the southeast through the period, although an outflow from a decaying storm complex over the Baja Spine may temporarily shift the winds out of the southwest early this evening. At KBLH, winds will generally be out of the south. Overall wind speeds will range between 8-15 kts, highest at KBLH, with periods of light variability likely during the early morning hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot temperatures will prevail through the entire week with shower thunderstorm chances mainly today and possibly Monday. Strong gusty winds will be possible late this afternoon and evening with any thunderstorms, while chances for wetting rains will remain below 20%. Minimum RHs will improve through Monday with readings of 15-25% today and 20-30% Monday, before dropping back into the teens into the middle part of the week. Temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees above normal, with lower desert highs eclipsing 110 degrees nearly every afternoon. Outside of thunderstorm outflow winds, winds will follow the typical diurnal tendencies with some modest afternoon upslope gustiness. && .CLIMATE... Record highs: Date Phoenix Yuma El Centro ---- ------- ---- --------- Aug 23 114 in 2011 115 in 2011 116 in 1969 Aug 24 115 in 2020 119 in 1985 117 in 1985 Aug 25 113 in 2011 116 in 1962 117 in 1962 Aug 26 117 in 2011 115 in 2020 115 in 1981 Aug 27 114 in 2023 120 in 1981 117 in 1981 Aug 28 117 in 2023 118 in 2023 117 in 2009 Aug 29 116 in 2023 117 in 1954 117 in 2005 && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ530>555-559- 560. CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ562-565>567- 569-570. && $$ SHORT TERM...Benedict/Kuhlman LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...Lojero FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman CLIMATE...18/Kuhlman  503 FXUS61 KCLE 232331 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 731 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the upcoming forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms are expected across parts of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania this evening into early tonight. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds and small hail is possible this evening. 2) Cooler weather with occasional lake effect rain showers continue across parts of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through early Tuesday. 3) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday night into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... An upper-level low remains situated over the Great Lakes region today with the occluded surface low right along the Ontario/Quebec border. A compact mid-level shortwave trough is working its way around western edge of the upper low and will approach the forecast from the north this evening. Paired with the left exit region of a jet streak over the western Great Lakes and we have solid forcing for ascent and pretty good confidence in timing and areal extent of precipitation this evening into early tonight. We start with scattered showers and storms areawide this afternoon as MLCAPE exceeds 250 J/kg underneath the jet streak forcing. The impending shortwave will focus a better period of thunderstorm development roughly along and northeast of I-80 in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania between 7 PM and 12 AM. This is where MLCAPE will be greatest (>500 J/kg) and exists the chance for organized convection that will have the potential for lightning, gusty winds (most likely in the 40-50 mph range), small hail, and heavy rain. While the mid-level speed max will be offset to the southwest, effective bulk shear of around 25-35 knots should be sufficient for an organized convection. Deep layer shear should be enough to produce strong winds but lack of DCAPE and waning low-level lapse rates is likely to make 40-50 mph gusts more common rather than 58+ mph (severe thunderstorm warning criteria). Small hail is likely to be pretty common in most thunderstorms this evening, aided by low freezing heights around 8-9kft and modest mid-level lapse rates. Large hail at or exceeding 1" is unlikely but possible with any rotating updrafts. Heavy rain is likely with thunderstorms with minor flooding possible is low-lying or flood-prone areas. Precipitation is unlikely to reach amounts for flash flooding. KEY MESSAGE 2.. Below normal temperatures continue through at least Tuesday with lake effect rain showers continuing tonight through Tuesday morning. Rain is likely to be more more persistent in Northwest Pennsylvania, compared to the "snowbelt" region of Northeast Ohio where rain showers will be more intermittent. KEY MESSAGE 3... Temperatures and humidity build back to near normal Wednesday and Thursday ahead of our next upper-level trough and low pressure system. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday night into Thursday with PoPs peaking in the 40-60% range. Can't completely rule out severe weather, but at this point most storms look to remain sub-severe. && .AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... VFR is expected across the western terminals through the TAF period as periodic lake effect showers and clouds impact terminals from KCLE eastward. A round of showers/thunderstorms are moving over Lake Erie currently and will impact KCLE and KERI through the next few hours. Stronger gusts to around 30 knots out of the northwest are possible if thunderstorms impact station. Lingering showers are possible, especially at KERI, behind the thunderstorms. Confidence is lower in showers impact KYNG and KCAK. All terminals except KERI will dry out after midnighttonight with VFR ceilings expected across the region tomorrow. Gusts will begin to subside over the next hour and will be sustained at around 10 knots out of the west-northwest. Winds will pick up again around 14-15Z tomorrow and gusts up to 20 knots are expected throughout the day. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in lake effect rain and/or low ceilings in far NE OH and NW pa Monday into Tuesday. Non-VFR may return in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday. && .MARINE... Rough marine conditions will continue across much of Lake Erie through Monday with elevated west to northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots resulting in waves of 3 to 6 feet. Marine conditions will gradually improve Monday night into Tuesday as winds subside to 10 knots or less. Winds will shift towards the south to southwest on Wednesday, increasing into the 10 to 15 knot range by Thursday. A few stronger wind gusts in excess of 34 knots are likely across the central and eastern basin of Lake Erie through this evening, associated with showers and thunderstorms. There is also a risk for waterspouts into Tuesday morning. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday afternoon for OHZ009- 010. Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for OHZ011-012- 089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LEZ144-145. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for LEZ146>149. && $$ DISCUSSION...Saunders AVIATION...23 MARINE...Kahn  407 FXUS61 KOKX 232330 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 730 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated for 00z TAFs and latest surf forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Continued chances for showers and thunderstorms into early evening ahead of a cold frontal passage. Some thunderstorms could have strong wind gusts with a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. 2) Chance of showers for both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Isolated thunderstorm possible for Monday. Severe weather impacts are not expected. 3) More chances of showers and thunderstorms for Thursday and Friday. Low confidence in potential impacts at this time. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Cold front and shortwave will provide lift this afternoon into early evening. This will combine with weak capping and sufficient MLCAPEs for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms until shortly after sundown. Strong to locally severe wind gusts would be the main impact. Looks like chances are limited to parts of NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley area, and into SW CT. Might need to extend chances for both showers and thunderstorms farther south, but will go with a dry forecast for the southern zones dry for now and monitor radar trends. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Cold pool aloft with longwave troughing will be over the region for both Monday and Tuesday. Both afternoons could see instability showers for parts of the Lower Hudson Valley and Southern Connecticut, and with slightly more CAPE and perhaps slightly steeper lapse rates, there could be an isolated rumble of thunder for Monday. NBM kept all areas dry both days, but have gone with slight chc PoPs for both afternoons. Severe wx not expected, but a strong gust could be possible on Monday. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Global models show a weak wave of low pressure approaching from our SW on Thursday and passing nearby or through the forecast area during Friday. Too early to have high confidence in potential impacts, but will need to keep an eye on trends for severe wx and flooding. At least isolated thunder would be around based on the track of storm, and at least minor flooding would be possible with an increase of PWATs. Time frame for greatest chance of impacts would be Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front moves through this evening with weak high pressure building in thereafter. A few isolated showers north and west of NYC terminals could lead to brief MVFR conditions, mainly for KSWF. Otherwise, VFR through the TAF period. Winds lighten this evening, with similar flow expected on Monday. Gusts Monday afternoon likely a bit stronger than today, as high as 20 to 25 kt. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... A few gusts late Monday afternoon could approach 30 kt. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: VFR. WSW gusts 15-20 kt. Wednesday: VFR. Light WSW/SW winds. Thursday-Friday: VFR Thu AM, becoming sub VFR with SHRA/TSRA. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Conditions on the marine zones are still expected to remain below small craft advisory thresholds during the marine forecast period. Pressure gradient overall remains relatively weak. Rip Currents: A moderate risk is expected for Monday followed by a low risk of rip currents on Tuesday for the Atlantic facing beaches. SE swell on both days is anticipated. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...JT MARINE...JC  509 FXUS64 KFWD 232331 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 631 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Very hot temperatures between 102 to 112 will continue through Tuesday. The Extreme Heat Warning for all of North and Central Texas has been extended through Monday, and will likely be needed on Tuesday as well. - A drop in temperatures down into the upper 90s to mid 100s is expected from Wednesday into next weekend as low rain chances return areawide each day. However, most locations will remain hot and dry through the weekend. - Hot temperatures, low humidity and worsening drought conditions will contribute to increased wildfire starts through the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms that affected parts of North and Central Texas earlier today have dissipated, with just some lingering mid and high level cloudiness seen across the region. Despite the clouds, temperatures are already in the upper 90s to mid 100s thanks to the proximity of the large upper level ridge along the TX/NM border, as well as the drier low level troposphere noted by dewpoints mostly in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Highs still look to reach the 103-110 range this afternoon, which will be the hottest day of the summer so far at many locations. The daily record high today of 107 at both DFW and Waco could be tied or possibly broken, although more likely for DFW than Waco. No precipitation is anticipated the rest of today or tonight, with lows dropping into the usual upper 70s to mid 80s. Tomorrow will see an increase in mid level moisture and associated cloud cover across the region, and a few models suggest some virga or a sprinkle are possible mainly in the afternoon. While this could keep temperatures down a tad, low level flow becoming more southwesterly along with even drier air below 850mb should predominate and keep highs just as hot or hotter than today. Once again, the daily record highs tomorrow of 107 at both DFW and Waco could be tied or possibly broken. On Monday night, 12Z guidance shows a weak shortwave dropping southward out of Oklahoma which could spark a few showers and storms overnight similar to what we saw this morning. Have mentioned low pops (10%) for this potential in line with latest guidance. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 On Tuesday, the large H5 ridge that has dominated our weather for weeks will begin slowly shifting off to the west with a bit stronger northerly flow aloft across our neck of the woods. Storms are anticipated to our north across KS/OK, which could send out clouds and/or an outflow boundary that might impact temperatures in parts of North Texas. Given how uncertain this is two days away, overall setup still argues for a very hot day with highs near or only slightly below Monday's readings, and another Extreme Heat Warning and/or a Heat Advisory will likely be needed. From Wednesday through the rest of the week, the upper level high will continue to shift westward into AZ/NM with northwesterly flow becoming established aloft over North and Central Texas. Low level moisture will also increase somewhat with dewpoints mostly in the 60s. This pattern shift will bring a return of low rain chances areawide each day/night as any weak shortwaves aloft could bring some north to south moving showers or storms, which are hard to pinpoint this far out in time. However, most areas will remain dry which only cause our ongoing drought conditions to worsen. Highs will subsequently be on a downward trend from Wednesday through Saturday and only reach the upper 90s to mid 100s. However, 12Z guidanceindicates the upper high will once again shift back to the east next week which would bring our temps back up as we round out August and move into September. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 South to southwesterly winds will prevail at all TAF sites with occasional streaming mid and upper level cloud cover expected. A surface low to our northwest near the Panhandles will aid in keeping wind speeds around 11-13 kt with occasional higher gusts as we go through tomorrow afternoon. Expect the next 24-30 hours to generally remain dry, however there may be some light precipitation echoes to the northeast of D10 late in the morning and afternoon tomorrow. Any light rain that falls out of those echoes will likely result in virga, and should remain to the northeast of D10, but there is a low (<10%) chance that some develop further southwest towards the airports. Similar to today, I would not be surprised if there were a period of more variable winds in the late afternoon due to thermal eddies, but the overall wind direction will remain out of the S-SW. Additional isolated chances for precipitation may occur just beyond the 30 hour extended TAF, and will be covered in future issuances. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 108 84 108 84 / 0 0 0 10 Waco 107 81 105 79 / 10 0 0 10 Paris 105 78 105 78 / 10 0 10 10 Denton 108 83 108 82 / 0 0 0 10 McKinney 106 81 106 82 / 0 0 10 10 Dallas 107 84 108 84 / 10 0 0 10 Terrell 106 80 106 80 / 10 0 0 10 Corsicana 105 80 105 78 / 20 0 0 10 Temple 106 79 105 76 / 10 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 109 79 109 79 / 0 0 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Monday for TXZ091>095- 100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION...Prater  403 FXUS64 KLCH 232330 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 630 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect until 8 PM this evening. Another Heat Advisory has been issued for Monday. Afternoon highs will again climb to near 100 degrees with maximum apparent temperatures ranging from 108 to 114. - Temperatures will remain above normal through Tuesday before returning nearer to normal through the second half of the week. - A few afternoon thunderstorms are expected each day. With that comes a low end chance that a couple may produce severe thunderstorm winds gusts, but the majority of the region will remain dry through Wednesday. Precipitation chances will increase Thursday into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Wx map illustrates a fairly relaxed pattern locally with slack standard sea level pressure this afternoon and evening. Due to the amount of instability aloft, it is possible to squeeze out a late afternoon thunderstorm, but the chances are very low end- supporting only isolated activity. Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8PM CDT this evening. Another Heat Advisory has been issued for Monday across the entire CWA as many locations will still hedge into criteria while actual high temperatures build to the upper 90s and low 100s. Some observations do reflect lower dewpoints across south central portions of Louisiana and few locations across Southeast Tx. Regardless, the impact potential for heat related illnesses still warrants the advisory. A shortwave trough extending south of the eastern Great Lakes Region does have some perturbative flow along the SW periphery which stretches across the ARKLATEX region where it abuts a much drier subtropical ridge. Short term guidance suggests this piece of energy may force elevated parcels above 1 km into scattered thunderstorm activity. Currently these chances are favored along and east of the I-49 corridor. It is possible the spatial extent could expand further west toward Southeast Texas, however, the atmospheric profile becomes less supportive further west of the Mississippi river. By Tuesday, a stationary boundary that meanders north of the Louisiana / Arkansas state line may continue to act as focal mechanism for initiating isolated to scattered storms. Given the latest trends in both blended and deterministic guidance, much of the better chances for rainfall still remain east of the I-49 corridor. Temperatures will continue to trend through the mid and upper 90s during through the first half of the work week. Thursday and Friday the boundary begins to show signs of moving further south, potentially increasing opportunities for measurable rainfall across the rest of the forecast area. Low end chances carry into the following weekend ahead while temperatures remain in the mid 90s. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A few thunderstorms have developed across parts of central Louisiana over the last couple of hours. One of these may briefly impact AEX through 02Z. The blowoff cirrus from these storms will drift south over the coastal terminals through the evening before gradually breaking up late tonight. Light south southwesterly winds will prevail through the period. Jones && .MARINE... Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Light onshore winds will persist through the week with seas ranging from 1-2 feet. Precipitation chances return across the coastal waters Thursday into next weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A few afternoon thunderstorms will develop each day through Wednesday with the highest probabilities in and around the Atchafalaya basin and east. Better precipitation chances are expected area wide Thursday through next weekend. KBDI values presently range from 530 to 750 across the region and will continue climbing as drought conditions worsen over the next couple of weeks. Daily minimum relative humidity will range from 40- 50% away from the immediate coastline through the middle of the week. Personal outdoor burning is strongly discouraged. Burn bans have been issued for most parishes and counties by local governments. Consult your local fire departments for more information. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045- 055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ027>033-044- 045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262- 515-516-615-616. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ180-201- 259>262-515-516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30 AVIATION...66  447 FXUS65 KPUB 232331 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 531 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scatted to numerous showers and storms expected this evening, especially across the plains. - Showers and storms expected each day of the upcoming week, though with a downtick in activity for the later part of the week. - Flash flooding will be a concern for the first half of the week, especially across the Aspen Acres burn scar. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 203 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Tonight: For Sunday night, active weather continues for portions of south central and southeastern Colorado. A ridge of high pressure will be remain in place just south of the area, with rich monsoon moisture streaming up and around this feature and into the area. This moisture tap, along with influence from vort maxes and shortwaves, will help showers and storms ongoing during the late afternoon to push across the plains through late evening to early overnight. While shear will be lackluster, a couple of strong storms will be possible given increased CAPE values. The strongest storms may be capable of producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding, along with gusty outflow winds to around 55 mph from wet microburst/heavy water laden downdrafts. Along with that, given the moisture in place, showers may continue to fester across the higher terrain and valleys into the late evening. With that all said, showers and storms are expected to dissipate by the mid overnight hours, with dry conditions by tomorrow morning. Outside of all of that, with the pattern in place, winds are expected to remain light outside of storms, less than 10 mph, with pockets of clouds persisting through much of the evening and overnight hours. Looking at temperatures, another warm and above seasonal lows night is anticipated given the moisture and cloud cover. The plains will cool into the 60s, the valleys into the upper 40s to upper 50s, and the mountains into the low 40s to mid 50s. Tomorrow: Heading into Monday, another similar day to the past couple is expected for south central and southeastern Colorado. The high pressure will continue to sit south of the area, and continue to stream deep moisture up and around and into the region. Again, with influences from vort maxes and shortwaves, another round afternoon showers and storms is anticipated, with initial development along the higher terrain, and increasing in coverage across the valleys and plains heading into mid to later afternoon. Heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and strong outflow winds to around 50-55 mph will be possible with any stronger storms. Beyond of all that, also similar to the past couple of days, winds will remain light, around 10 mph, outside of influences from storms, with clouds increasing in coverage through the afternoon hours. As for temperatures, another warm and above seasonal day is anticipated. The plains will warm into the 90s, the valleys into the 80s, and the mountains into the mid 50s and upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 203 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Monday Night - Saturday: For the rest of the forecast period, active weather continues for south central and southeastern Colorado, though with a downtick in activity heading into the later part of the week. The stubborn high pressure will remain in place through at least the first half of the week, bringing additional abundant moisture. This moisture, along with any vort maxes and short waves, will bring additional days with afternoon and evening showers and storms, with the greatest coverage Tuesday and Wednesday. Then heading into the later part of the week, the high pressure is expected to drift southward and flatten out. This will eventuallycut-off the deeper moisture tap, with showers and storms decreasing in coverage past Wednesday, but especially Friday and Saturday. Otherwise, winds continue to remain relatively light, with increased cloud cover expected each afternoon. As for temperatures, while a dip is expected midweek, temperatures remain warm and mostly above seasonal values, especially heading into next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 529 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Any thunder at the taf sites at the beginning of this period should end within an hour. Then expect VFR conditions and diurnal wind flow thereafter. There once again will be a low end chance of some thunder over the taf sites tomorrow late afternoon. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080- 086. Flash Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for COZ079-080-086. && $$ SHORT TERM...SIMCOE LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...HODANISH/SIMCOE  596 FXUS61 KILN 232333 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 733 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased precipitation chances into this evening and also added patchy fog in for overnight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible into this evening across parts of the area. 2) Dry and cool to start the week on Monday, Thunderstorm chances return for Wednesday night into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) An upper level disturbance will move across the area through this evening allowing for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. This will be focused initially north of I-70 and then chances will shift into central portions of the forecast area. Dry conditions are expected south of the Ohio River. Due to low freezing level, cannot rule out small hail with a few of the storms. Severe weather is not expected. After precipitation moves out overnight there will be the potential for some patchy fog later in the overnight hours. KEY MESSAGE 2) Cool and dry conditions are expected for Monday with just some cu. Cannot rule out a sprinkle in central Ohio, however probability was too low to mention. Continued dry conditions are expected through the day on Wednesday. Temperatures on Monday are expected to be in the 70s for highs in most locations. On Tuesday a few highs near and south of the Ohio River will rise into the 80s, elsewhere expect 70s again for highs. Low temperatures in the 50s are generally expected at night Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday nights. Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast for Wednesday night into Thursday as a system moves through during that time. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mid level low over the Great Lakes to migrate slowly east-northeast into southeast Canada by Monday evening. Shortwave to pivot around the the mid level low thru the southern Great Lakes this evening. Surface trof and very marginal instby has resulted in isold to scattered showers along and north of the I-70 corridor. Have a mention of a shower in the central Ohio TAF/s thru early evening from a VFR deck. Clouds scatter out and dissipate thru late evening. Overnight winds decrease and skies clear out. This will allow for the potential for fog at KLUK and KILN. Fog will improve quickly after sunrise Monday. Winds will start to pick up again for Monday, however they are expected to remain around 10 knots or less. Dry conditions are expected for Monday with only few to scattered VFR cumulus clouds. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...AR  625 FXUS61 KBGM 232334 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 734 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Some minor adjustments to shower coverage and rainfall amounts through Tuesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers with some lake enhancement are still forecasted through Tuesday. 2) High pressure builds in for a brief lull in wet weather Wednesday, then additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to return Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Our region will be under a broad trough of upper level low pressure through Tuesday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon should begin to decrease this evening with the loss of instability. Southerly to southwesterly winds should dry things out for most of the night into Monday. However, low level lapse rates should steepen during the afternoon leading to the development of additional scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms by Monday afternoon. Small hail can not be ruled out given the modeled lapse rates. The wind direction should become more westerly to northwesterly later Monday night through Tuesday pulling some lake moisture into the picture and generating lake effect showers across CNY. Rainfall amounts look fairly light with only brief heavy downpours. Temperatures though trend cooler due to the clouds and rainfall with highs barely making 70 and lows in the 50's. Our first real feel of fall this year. KEY MESSAGE 2... A break is modeled Tuesday night and Wednesday as high pressure builds into the area. This still looks short lived as another cold frontal boundary moves through the region Thursday and Friday. Enough lift and moisture should be present ahead of the front for a round or two of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures warm a bit Thursday and Friday into the 80's with the southerly flow. Slightly cooler air and high pressure looks to build into the region next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions are expected tonight, with the typical fog potential at ELM. A few rain showers that are moving in may lead to some higher humidity and lead to fog tonight despite some more elevated winds across the hill tops. Lake effect rain showers likely develop tomorrow afternoon with MVFR cigs and vis possible at ITH, SYR, and RME. Outlook... Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR, morning fog potential at ELM. Friday...Potential restrictions with an incoming frontal system. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWG AVIATION...AJG/KL  629 FXUS61 KBOX 232334 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 734 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A high risk for rip current statement has been issued for Nantucket on Monday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Outside a few showers/isolated t-storm risk into mid evening with the focus across the interior especially near and west of the CT River Valley. Areas of fog develop overnight which may become locally dense in spots. - Drier with a return to seasonable temperatures this week. Rain chances return Thursday/Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Outside a few showers/isolated t-storm risk into mid evening with the focus across the interior especially near and west of the CT River Valley. Areas of fog develop overnight which may become locally dense in spots. The main cluster of showers that resulted in brief heavy rain along with a rumble or two of thunder has exited the eastern Ma coast earlier this afternoon. Behind this activity some subsidence and drier mid level air was allowing the lower clouds to begin to mix out from southwest to northeast. We will see a late rise in temps through early evening well into the 70s to perhaps near 80 in the CT River Valley as some peeks of sun try to develop. This will result in some modest instability developing with ML Capes approaching 1000 J/KG across parts of the interior. However...subsidence behind the earlier shortwave coupled with the main forcing well to our west will limit the additional risk. Nonetheless...a few showers and perhaps an isolated t-storm or two will be possible into mid- evening. The main focus for this activity will be across the interior and especially near and west of the CT River Valley closer to the upper level shortwave. Otherwise...the main story later tonight will be for the development of fog some of which may become locally dense. Winds become light/calm overnight coupled with partial clearing, wet ground and dewpoints remaining in the 60s will set the stage for fog development. Some of the fog may become locally dense too. Low temperatures overnight will drop into the middle to upper 50s in the outlying locations...to the middle 60s in the urban heat islands of downtown Boston/Providence. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier with a return to seasonable temperatures this week. Rain chances return Thursday/Friday. A post-frontal air mass ushers in drier conditions and warmer temperatures on westerly winds this week. As skies gradually clear from the dreary weekend, dewpoints will begin to drop slightly... into the upper 50s as opposed to the low to mid 60s we've been seeing. High pressure begins to slowly build Tuesday into Wednesday, prolonging the clear skies, drier weather, and warmer temperatures through the middle of the week. Expecting temperatures to return to seasonable, in the upper 70s to low 80s, and feel less humid thanks to the lower dewpoints through the end of the week. Chances for rain showers return Thursday and Friday as a low pressure system develops over the Great Lakes and meanders east through southern Ontario. Some uncertainty remains regarding the onset of the showers as there's little consistency in the global ensembles on the actual placement of the low as it tracks through Canada; however, confidence has ticked up slightly in a later show of showers Thursday evening into the overnight period compared to yesterday's model runs. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00z TAF Update... Through Tonight...Moderate confidence in trends but lower confidence in specific timing. A few additional showers and perhaps an isolated t-stormwill be possible into mid evening, with highest chances across interior southern New England and particularly areas near and west of the CT River Valley. Mostly MVFR-VFR conditions this evening; however, wet ground combined with light winds and dewpoints still in the 60s will likely result in areas of fog developing in the typically prone locations. Some of that fog may become locally dense overnight...while areas like KBOS end up going VFR. So a wide variety of conditions possible toward daybreak. Winds become calm/light SW tonight. Monday and Monday night...High confidence. Any leftover ground fog quickly burns off after sunrise Mon. Otherwise...VFR with SW winds of 7-13 knots with a few gusts up to 20 kts possible in the afternoon/evening hours. Mainly VFR conditions continue Mon night outside of any localized patches of ground fog that develop in those typically prone locations. Winds become calm/light SW Mon night. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in trends but lower confidence in specific timing. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in trends but lower confidence in specific timing. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight through Monday night...High confidence. The pressure gradient will generally remain weak enough to keep winds/seas below small craft advisory through Monday night. However...nearshore SW winds may gust into the lower 20 knots late Monday result in some decent chop for recreational boaters. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...High Risk for Rip Currents from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for MAZ024. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Frank/McMinn AVIATION...McMinn MARINE...Frank/McMinn  676 FXUS63 KGRR 232335 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 735 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Afternoon Showers Today - Dry Monday/Tuesday, Showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 149 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Afternoon Showers Today Moisture from Lake Michigan, steep low level laps rates providing around 200 J/kg of CAPE, along with mid level support from the upper level low are sparking off isolated to scattered showers. These will be largely north of a Ludington to Jackson line before the inversion builds in this evening and we lose our surface based instability. Thunderstorms are not expected. - Dry Monday/Tuesday, Showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday Pressure heights increase Monday into Tuesday as the upper level low over the eastern Great Lakes shifts east. Northwest winds will continue for Monday with gusts to 20 mph. Tuesday winds will be lighter and more variable. High temperatures will be in the 70s Monday and warm to around 80 for Tuesday. Low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s. Southerly winds build in ahead of our next shortwave trough that is expected to slowly move through Wednesday. Warm air advection and the low level jet will feed into the area with instability around 1000 J/kg. Shear values only look to be around 25 knots, therefore confidence in storms becoming severe is low. Long range ensemble clusters are in good agreement that most of the rain ends by Thursday morning, although we could see another round of diurnal showers similar to today Thursday afternoon. The probability of a half inch of rain in 24 hours during this time is less than 20 percent. Friday ensembles are in good agreement to expect dry conditions but confidence decreases over the weekend as we remain in transitional flow where a few weak shortwaves could bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 730 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through Monday at all West Michigan TAF sites. Lingering diurnal cloudiness early this evening will diminish quickly, as will the northwest breezes currently gusting to around 20 kt. Skies will then be mainly clear for the duration of the night, with a light W/NW wind. Monday will see scattered 4-5 kft CU form again after 15Z, as northwest winds increase to 10 to 15 kt. Less gustiness is expected Monday compared to Sunday. && .MARINE... Issued at 149 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Wave heights around 4 feet have been observed this afternoon with northwest winds gusting around 20 knots. Expect Small Craft Advisory and High Swim risk conditions to continue into this evening before winds and waves subside tonight. Wave heights could remain around 4 feet north of Big Sable after midnight. Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots Monday will keep wave heights around 2 to 3 feet. Moderate Swim Risk conditions are expected through Monday afternoon before wave heights fall below 2 feet Monday night into Tuesday. The next chance for Small Craft Advisory and High Swim Risk conditions will be Wednesday which matches up with our next chance for showers and thunderstorms. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ037- 043-050-056-064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...Smith MARINE...RAH  670 FXUS63 KSGF 232335 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 635 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri tonight into Monday morning. Damaging wind to 60 mph is the primary severe weather hazard, with quarter size hail being a secondary hazard. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding are also possible. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A drier air mass is in place across the area behind the front that moved through the area yesterday. Dewpoints currently range from the middle 50s across central MO to around 60 across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri this afternoon. Highs today will range from around 80 across central Missouri to the lower 90s across far southwestern Missouri. An upper level disturbance is currently moving south towards the area this afternoon. Mid to high level clouds will continue to increase from north to south into this evening as the disturbance moves south. Some light rain showers will be possible at times late this afternoon and this evening as the disturbance moves south through the region. Rainfall amounts will generally be a trace to a few hundredths of an inch with the showers this evening as a drier air mass will remain in place across the area. Tonight into Monday morning moisture will start to advect back into the region from the southwest. Precipitable water values will increase to around 2" from the southwest tonight into Monday morning across portions of extreme southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri, as the moisture starts to advect into the region. MUCAPE values of around 500 to 1000 J/kg will also develop within the area of advection tonight into Monday morning, generally along and west of Highway 65, with weaker instability to the east. A low level jet will increase across the southwestern portions of the area which will result in isentropic lift increasing. As this occurs, a band of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region from the northwest to the southeast on the noise of the low level jet. Storm motions and 0-3km bulk shear vectors will be to the southeast which will be parallel to the lift. Therefore, some locally heavy rainfall will occur with the increase in moisture and some potential for training. Some of the short term models keep the lift more stationary across the western portions of the area which would result in more prolong training potential, while others slowly push the lift/advection to the northeast through the area. Localized areas of 2 to locally 4" of rainfall will be possible in bands and if more training of storms can occur, localized amount up to 6" could be possible. Outside the bands, rainfall amounts will likely drop off sharply. With the potential for higher rainfall rates and training, there will be a localized flooding risk within the heavier bands of rain tonight into Monday morning, generally between 4 to 10am. Some lingering showers could occur into mid day, but the heaviest should be overnight into the mid morning hours. Deep layer shear will increase across the area tonight into Monday morning, MUCAPE will be more modest but a few strong storms will be possible with scattered damaging winds gusts up to 60 mph as the main severe risk, and hail to the size of quarters a secondary risk. There is a Marginal (1 out of 5) Severe Thunderstorm Risk across the western portions of the area tonight mainly west of Highway 65. Instability will be weaker to the east, but some non severe thunderstorms will be possible east of Highway 65 with coverage decreasing further to the east. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issuedat 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The upper level ridge will remain west of area this week. Highs will generally range from the mid/upper 80s across central Missouri to the low/middle 90s across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri each day this week into next weekend. The region will remain in northwest flow this this week. The ensemble model members show a couple upper level disturbances moving through the northwest flow bringing some chances (20-30%) chances for storms at times mid week and again late week into next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Mid and high-level clouds with intermittent light rain showers are currently overspreading the TAF sites. This is expected to continue through at least 08Z. Between 08-18Z, a relatively narrow line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop somewhere near JLN and stretch toward somewhere near BBG. The line is expected to be rather narrow and train over the same area (so not move very much), limiting confidence in if the band will actually impact a TAF site. Latest guidance suggests JLN has the best chances of seeing impacts, with BBG the second-best chance, and a lower-end chance that SGF sees impacts. These confidence levels are outlined as FM/TEMPO/PROB30s in the TAFs. The impacts would come mainly in the form of lightning and torrential rain, but a few instances of small hail cannot be ruled out. After 15-18Z, rain will clear, and high clouds will be leftover with 8-12 kt southeasterly winds for the rest of the TAF period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...Wise AVIATION...Price  653 FXUS64 KMEG 232334 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 634 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Shower and thunderstorm chances increase late tonight into Monday, with organized severe weather not expected. - Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected through midweek. - Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected across the Mid-South for most of the week, but extreme heat is not expected. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A large area of high pressure remains parked over the Desert Southwest with the Mid-South on the eastern periphery. A cold frontal passage that occurred yesterday has cooled temperatures nicely with temperatures running 1-5 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. With a prevailing easterly wind, dry air aloft, expect a pleasant and dry day across the region with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with comfortable humidity levels. Late tonight into early Monday morning, shower and thunderstorm chances will return as a shortwave impinges from the WNW. Due to the timing of the wave, QPF amounts, and advancing cloud cover, there is quite a spread in guidance for projected high temperatures tomorrow. Also due to the aforementioned factors, unless rapid clearing occurs, severe weather should not be a concern, but a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out particularly in the afternoon. Probabilities of receiving 1" or more of rainfall are isolated, but best chances appear to be south and west of the Memphis metro. Tuesday will be a bit warmer and more humid as a warm front lifts north. This will bring increased showers and thunderstorms in its wake. Current probabilities from the LREF show low (20% or less) chances of severe weather ingredients being present, but we will continue to monitor as the forecast evolves. The warm front will not traverse quickly or make it very far north into southern Kentucky, so expect another hot and humid day on Wednesday with isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances. A 'cold' front, associated with a low pressure system moving across the Great Lakes, will sweep across the region on Thursday. While the weekend looks mostly dry following the front, there is no expected seasonal relief, as above-normal temperatures are forecast to persist through the end of August. DNM && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR will prevail tonight, under a thick veil of cirrus. Ensemble- based short term guidance (HREF/REFS) depicts a developing TSRA corridor west of the Midsouth TAF sites, extending to the west of and south of CKM (Clarksdale, MS) around 12Z Monday. At MEM, very dry air between FL050-FL100 will limit TS potential and SHRA intensity. VFR and light east winds appear on track for the Monday evening MEM inbound push. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Minimum relative humidity will average 35 to 45 percent today. Rain chances increase tonight into Monday morning. Fog should not be a concern due to advancing cloud cover and elevated surface winds. Relative humidity will remain high as rain chances persist through most of the week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...AC3  619 FXUS65 KGJT 232333 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 533 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Monsoonal moisture in place will keep scattered shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast today. - Heavier rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding over burn scars and susceptible terrain. - Temperatures near to around 5 degrees above normal are expected through early next week, followed by a gradual warmup to close to 10 degrees above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1232 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Shortwave troughing working across the northern Rockies this afternoon is providing some lift to the monsoonal moisture in place across the region. Convection thus far, has been richest across the San Juans where a concentration of showers and thunderstorms have developed this morning. This activity is expected to continue through the afternoon. Some rain is making its way to the surface, but rainfall remains sporadic. Some heavier showers could pose flash flooding issues this afternoon, as afternoon heating amplifies storms. Shortwave energy will continue to drag across the region into the evening hours, likely keeping a few isolated showers going into the overnight. Showers will lose much of their stamina after sunset, so expecting for more stratiform shower activity during the late evening to overnight hours, winding down before daybreak. While moisture takes a slight downturn on Monday, there will still be ample fuel for another afternoon of mountain showers and thunderstorms. Once again, some showers could pose a threat for flash flooding near burn scars and sensitive slot canyons, arroyos, etc. Above normal moisture sticks around Wednesday and beyond, as the high gradually shifts back into the Desert Southwest. Forcing will be somewhat lacking, with only the occasional shortwave rotating around the periphery of the high. This means that most afternoons will see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms develop over the higher terrain, with occasional periods of focused convection coinciding with a passing wave. So long as surface levels remain saturated, heavy rain and flash flooding will remain concerns, particularly for burn scars, slot canyons, and flashy creeks/dry washes. Additionally, gusty outflow winds and lightning will be daily threats. Temperatures will start around 5 degrees above normal, but will gradually warm through the week under the influence of the high. By the end of the coming workweek, look for highs to be 5-10 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 529 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to be around for some terminals, but storm activity will gradually diminish after sunset. Winds around storms could get gusty as well as the additional wind threat from nearby outflows. Winds will resume terrain driven patterns overnight. Cloud cover will likely linger into the morning hours as we have been seeing the past few days. Shower and storm chances return Monday afternoon, particularly for the high terrain terminals. All that being said, VFR conditions will prevail. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TGJT AVIATION...TGJT  754 FXUS63 KDMX 232337 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 637 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Generally quiet weather for the upcoming work week, with high temperatures in the low to mid-80s each day. - Some light showers are possible across the western half of Iowa late tonight into Monday morning. A few showers and thunderstorms will also be possible on Tuesday into Tuesday night, with a low risk of severe weather just to our northeast in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin. - A more active weather pattern will return with additional thunderstorm chances next weekend, but any further details remain unclear at this range. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 108 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A large surface high pressure ridge dominates the region today, stretching from south central Canada down over the Upper Midwest and Iowa. The result is seasonally comfortable conditions, light and variable winds, and a lack of low-level clouds. Meanwhile, a large 500 MB heat dome is sitting over the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains, with a ridge extending northward into central Canada. Two relatively subtle shortwave impulses are overtopping this ridge, with a larger trough moving over the Washington/British Columbia region. The first of the two shortwaves is sliding southeastward across Nebraska at this time and producing light showers there, as well as some higher cirrus clouds that are streaming over central Iowa but only modestly blunting insolation. All in all it is a beautiful day for most outdoor interests in our area. As the leading impulse slides from Nebraska into Kansas and Missouri later today, some of the showers over Nebraska may just clip the southwestern corner of our forecast area. However, dry air entrainment and subsidence associated with the surface ridge will inhibit any such eastward expansion, and recent regional radar trends support the rain staying just to our southwest so have kept the forecast dry through this evening except for some 20% POPs down by Taylor County. From tonight into Monday, as the second impulse moves overhead and in closer proximity, gradual saturation of the atmospheric column should support some light rain in our western and southwestern counties, mainly after midnight and into Monday morning. However, even then, there is a notable lack of instability and forecast soundings still show fairly substantial dry air to overcome, especially with the farther eastward one goes in our forecast area. With this in mind, have maintained relatively low (20-30%) POPs in our western counties from late tonight into early Monday, but have lowered them to 10% in our central counties and gone with light shower/sprinkle wording for the most part. No appreciable rainfall amounts are anticipated and severe weather is not expected. On Monday the surface ridge will begin to drift off to our east, allowing for a return of light southerly flow. Modest ridging aloft, in wake of the overnight shortwave impulse, will cause any lingering showers to fade out by midday and lead to dry conditions Monday afternoon and evening. By sunset, the aforementioned larger 500 MB trough currently over Washington/British Columbia will have progressed to southeastern Saskatchewan, and will subsequently move east southeastward to near Lake Superior by Wednesday morning. As it does so, it will push a reflective surface trough southeastward through our region, crossing Iowa from late Tuesday through Tuesday night. Ahead of this surface trough, a period of modest forcing for ascent ahead of the 500 MB trough, concurrent with weak warm air/moisture advection in the low levels, supports a few showers and thunderstorms during the day Tuesday and have maintained 20% POPs accordingly. Around Tuesday evening, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the advancing surface trough closer to the 500 MB low, roughly near the Minnesota/Wisconsin border. In that region stronger instability and low-level convergence along the trough supports more robust updrafts and some severe weather potential, however, this is more in question heading southward down the trough into Iowa. The forcing associated with the parent low aloft will be weaker down here, and the surface boundary a bit more washed out with weaker low-level convergence. Forecast soundings also hint at possible capping in the afternoon and evening. As such, have held POPs low (again, 20%) in our northeastern counties and the SPC convective outlook keeps a Marginal Risk of severe weather just to the northeast of Iowa. However, we will be watching over the next couple days for any signs of southward expansion of that potential and of POPs in general. As the surface trough then sinks southeastward across our service area later Tuesday night, 20% POPs are maintained in that area to account for lingering showers and storms developing along it, but any severe weather potential would diminish even further overnight. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 108 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 By Wednesday the large 500 MB heat dome will remain in place over the southwestern/south central CONUS, while the trough described in the SHORT TERM section above moves away to our east. This will allow deep-layer ridging to reassert itself just to our west, leading to a period of dry, quiet, and seasonally mild weather with daily highs in the low to mid-80s for the remainder of the week. By Friday and Saturday the pattern will begin to shift a bit, as two large 500 MB lows develop over Canada and shunt the ridge southward, with the heat dome retrograding more over the far southwestern CONUS near Arizona and New Mexico. This will cause 500 MB flow over Iowa to become more zonal, with multiple shortwave impulses moving through the flow and providing several opportunities for thunderstorms from Friday or Saturday into early the following week. While the details of any such storms are very uncertain at this range, it is fair to say that overall the weather pattern will be more active by next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR cumulus stretch across a large part of the state this evening but should dissipate in the next several hours. Cumulus will likely develop again during the day tomorrow, but remain VFR. Some patchy fog is possible tonight, but chances are 10-20% of development at any given terminal so left it out of this issuance. An isolated shower is possible early tomorrow morning at KFOD/KDSM but impacts would be low. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lee LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...De Bruin  775 FXUS61 KBTV 232337 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 737 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 730 PM EDT Sunday... Thunderstorm activity has begun to weaken. A rumble or two may take place in the Champlain Valley, but the severe threat is over for the evening. Quiet conditions are expected tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 250 PM EDT Sunday... 1. Numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue across the region this afternoon, with some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible. 2. Lingering showers will continue into the start of the week under broad cyclonic flow, with drier weather returning towards the middle of the week. 3. Showers with some thunderstorm potential to end the week will be followed by another tranquil period over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 250 PM EDT Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Gusty showers continue to bubble up across the region this afternoon as a frontal boundary continues to move through the region. Some more embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop as the afternoon progresses, especially with clearing skies allowing for more instability over the next few hours. CAPE values are expected to reach around 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon, which will help with the thunderstorm development, along with modest lapse rates and shear. SPC continues to show the entire forecast area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather this afternoon with the idea that a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, with possible hail and strong winds as the primary threats. Storms looks to be progressive, limiting any hydro concerns at this time, especially given the dry weather the last few days. The current forecast still shows about 0.20 to 0.50 inches across much of the area, with lower totals expected across much of the Northeast Kingdom and some higher amounts possible within any thunderstorms that develop. Shower activity will gradually wane through this evening as the frontal boundary exits the region, although some showers may linger overnight, especially across northern New York. Some clearing may be possible tonight behind the system, which may lead to some fog/mist developing overnight, especially in locations that see rainfall today as there will be plenty of moisture, although winds may be enough to limit this potential. Overnight lows are expected to generally be in the upper 40s and 50s tonight, with temperatures near Lake Champlain near 60. KEY MESSAGE 2: For the start of the week, the region will remain in broad cyclonic flow, will will allow for linger showers on Monday and Tuesday, especially across the higher terrain as the upper level low gradually shifts away from the region. This cyclonic flow will also lead to some lake effect showers off Lake Ontario, with increased shower chances expected across northern New York Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures will be on the cool side, with highs only climbing into the 70s, with some locations in the Adirondacks struggling to climb out of the upper 60s. A brief period of ridging looks to build into the region for Wednesday, bringing some drier weather conditions for the middle of the week. KEY MESSAGE 3: A broad upper-level trough remains on track to progress into the eastern Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon, putting us in a favorable position for showers and thunderstorms. The probability of thunderstorms compared to 24 hours ago has trended quite a bit higher for this timeframe, with the latest NBM 6 hour thunder chances (2 PM to 8 PM) now in the 25 to 32% range across our region. Relatedly, forecast temperatures have ticked up with highs favored to reach the upper 70s to mid 80s amidst seasonably humid conditions with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s during peak heating. Generally the potential for stronger storms is low but appears to be slightly elevated in northern New York relative to Vermont where both CAPE and shear will likely be somewhat higher. With a surface low and associated trough slow to push eastward, shower chances will continue through Thursday night into Friday morning, which makes the convective chances for Friday questionable. However, signals for higher instability relative to Thursday, especially in Vermont, still exists in many pieces of ensemble guidance. The large scale pattern with continued height falls and cold front still to our west suggests scattered showers and thunderstorms are a good bet for Friday afternoon, especially if there is enough surface heating. Given convective nature of a lot of the rain, rainfall amounts will likely be highly variable, but overall the potential for excessive rain is minimal at this time without particularly rich moisture. 48 hour probabilities of rainfall exceeding an inch per latest NBM are only as high as 22% and mainly under 10% in our region. As the system's low pressure area occludes near Hudson Bay, a ridge of high pressure will build in to the south and expand across the northeastern US by Saturday morning, providing us with low humidity and seasonable conditions for the weekend. Perhaps by the end of the weekend the gyre will be forced southward and precipitation chances increase, but the predictability of such a scenario is low at this time. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 00Z Tuesday...Two strips of precipitation are crossing the Vermont-New Hampshire border and in the Champlain Valley. Portions of Vermont may see some showers for a couple more hours, but mostly quiet conditions are expected. There are mixed signals for fog tonight. Under the influence of cooler low pressure to our west, lake effect activity will stream into northern New York. This should bring some clouds over KSLK with ceilings around 2000-3000 ft agl, but KMPV and KRUT are the most likely to experience fog tonight, but there will be some light winds possible overnight and so 3SM is shown given the uncertainty. South to southeast winds are expected to trend towards 5 knots, and then after 14z, increase to 7 to 12 knots sustained with gusts 16 to 22 knots possible. Additional shower activity is likely Monday afternoon, first over KSLK about 15z-21z, and then 18z-23z for most others. Precipitation will be scattered, and so mainly PROB30s were used. Outlook... Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Haynes/Kremer DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Kremer AVIATION...Haynes  776 FXUS62 KFFC 232338 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 738 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry for North Georgia and low chances for thunderstorms (15-20%) across parts of Central Georgia through Tuesday. - Daily rain chances will be on the upswing by mid to late week as a frontal boundary approaches. - Seasonal temperatures are largely expected through the week ahead. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 232 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Calm weather is expected through the short term. Dry conditions behind a cold front will limit our thunderstorm chances to minimal, and contained to the southern parts of the CWA. Winds will be out of the NW at 5 to 10 mph with gusts as high as 15 mph. Drier weather is expected to expand further into the CWA tomorrow with RH values in the afternoon dropping down into the 35% range, making conditions feel downright lovely for this time of year. Light and variable winds are expected overnight before picking up to 5 to 10 mph again under mostly clear skies. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday morning through next Saturday) Issued at 232 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 As the long term period begins, the axis of a longwave trough will be centered over the Atlantic coast, which will keep much of Georgia underneath northwesterly upper level flow. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will be sliding across the Midwest. The combination of these factors will keep weather conditions dry and benign across the majority of the forecast area for one more day on Tuesday. Low temperatures will start the morning in the low to mid 60s across north Georgia (and even some upper 50s in the highest elevations) and in the upper 60s and low 70s in central Georgia. Highs will climb into the low 90s in north Georgia and mid 90s in central Georgia on Tuesday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in portions of south-central Georgia during the peak heating hours, while dry air will keep chances minimal across the remainder of the forecast area. Atmospheric moisture will gradually over during the middle part of the week, and weak disturbances traversing the northwesterly flow will provide opportunity for thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon and evening. On Thursday, another trough moving across the Great Lakes will advance a front towards far north Georgia. The front will gradually work its way southeast through the forecast area on Thursday into Friday. Forcing ahead of the front and increase moisture will lead to scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the later part of the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 735 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR thru period. Winds generally out of NW at 5 to 10kts during the day and less than 6kts at night, becoming more northerly to vrb overnight. No vsby restrictions expected. Iso -shra and -tsra psbl south of CSG and MCN. Cigs over 20kft to bkn tmrw afternoon towards the south. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... High confidence all elements. SM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 66 91 65 92 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 70 91 68 93 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 59 84 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 64 91 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 73 94 71 94 / 0 10 10 0 Gainesville 65 89 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 72 94 70 94 / 10 10 10 10 Rome 64 91 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 68 92 66 93 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 73 96 72 95 / 10 10 10 50 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vaughn LONG TERM....King AVIATION...SM  812 FXUS64 KMRX 232339 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 739 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 732 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Dry conditions with more comfortable humidity levels through Tuesday. - Shower and thunderstorm chances will return Wednesday and especially Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Upper troughing will remain over the eastern US for the next few days as surface high pressure to our north and northwest drifts slowly east. This will provide us with a dry days and comfortably low relative humidity values each afternoon through Tuesday. Some patchy fog may develop in the late night hours tonight especially near rivers and lakes. By mid week the surface high will be off to our east and northeast, allowing low level flow to become more southwesterly and moisture to increase. Models suggest short wave energy moving across the area may have enough moisture to work with for a few showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, especially south and mountains. By Thursday into Thursday night, models show a stronger upper wave moving through the Great Lakes Region, dragging a weak cold front into our area. This will likely be the day with the highest coverage of showers and storms. We will have to wait until we get closer to see about the potential for any strong to severe storms, but right now the ensemble data joint probabilities for at least 500 J/kg of CAPE and > 30kt bulk shear are minimal at best and the chance for severe storms looks quite low. Lower confidence in the details further out, but models generally suggest high pressure will bring at least some drying behind the front for Friday into the weekend. The NBM still has some low chances for showers and storms for these days, especially over the mountains during the afternoon hours. High temperatures will generally not be far either side of normal for the entire forecast period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 732 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Predominant VFR conditions and light winds less than 10kts are expected for the TAF cycle. Brief early morning fog/br cannot be ruled out at TRI as the forecast low is expected to near the crossover temperature of 55 degrees. Confidence is not high enough in fog potential to introduce anything less than MVFR conditions at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 91 65 92 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 87 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 61 87 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 83 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...KRS  803 FXUS64 KSJT 232338 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 638 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Big Country, Heartland and Concho Valley areas this afternoon. - An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for the Big Country Monday afternoon. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Concho Valley and Heartland Monday afternoon. - Hot and mainly dry weather will persist through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 107 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Hot temperatures are once occurring across West Central Texas this afternoon, with highs already into the upper 90s or surpassing 100. Highs this afternoon will top out in the upper 90s to near 109. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Big Country, Concho Valley, and Heartland. Overnight lows will be in the 70s to lower 80s. An upper level ridge will be centered across southeast New Mexico on Monday. This will result in another hot and dry day across West Central Texas with highs well above seasonal normals. Highs will be in the upper 90s to near 109 across most of the area. A Heat Advisory was issued for much of the Concho Valley, Heartland and portions of the Big Country as temperatures reach or exceed 105. Portions of the northern Big Country may reach or exceed 110, so have issued an Extreme Heat Warning for Monday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Sunday) Issued at 107 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The upper level ridge will shift slightly west on Tuesday, but still remain centered across New Mexico. This will result in another very hot day across the area, with highs in the upper 90s to near 108. A heat Advisory will likely be needed for the Big Country and portions of the Concho Valley and Heartland. Wednesday and Thursday, the upper level ridge shifts a bit farther west. This will result in "less hot" temperatures, but temperatures will still remain well above seasonal normals. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 90s to near 104, with highs on Thursday in the mid 90s to near 102. West Central Texas will be on the eastern periphery of the ridge and the ECMWF and GFS are both indicating at least isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms developing Wednesday and Thursday. For now have kept low rain chances (15-30%) in the forecast, but these may eventually need to be increased some. Drier weather should return Friday int Saturday. Highs will continue to be above normal, in the upper 90s to near 104. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are expected across all terminals through the next 24 hours. Light southerly winds have started to transition to light and variable winds, which will persist into Monday morning. Winds are expected to become light and southerly late Monday morning, with breezy gusts from 15 to 20 kts across all terminals except KSOA after 15Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 106 81 108 80 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 104 76 105 76 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 103 74 103 72 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 105 77 106 75 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 106 81 108 79 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 99 73 100 72 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 103 76 104 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan- Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Jones-Mason-McCulloch-Nolan- Runnels-San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday for Callahan- Fisher-Haskell-Jones-Nolan-Shackelford-Taylor-Throckmorton. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PMCDT Monday for Brown-Coke- Coleman-Concho-Irion-Mason-McCulloch-Runnels-San Saba-Sterling- Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...Daniels LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...TP  825 FXUS66 KMTR 232339 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 439 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1237 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Near to slightly below normal temperatures persist in the marine layer this week - Warm and dry conditions continue above 1000 feet && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1237 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 (This evening through Monday night) Not too much change in the forecast today as the Bay Area and Central Coast remain in between an upper level trough to the north and a ridge over the Desert Southwest. Ridging remains more dominant through this evening before the center of the ridge shifts eastward early Monday and troughing becomes more dominant over the region. High temperatures are forecast to peak in the upper 80s to low 90s across the interior with far interior Monterey County reaching the low 100s. Coastal areas are benefiting from a shallow (~1000 foot) marine layer that brought patchy stratus and drizzle to the coast and the SF Bay shoreline. This will keep temperatures cooler in coastal areas with highs peaking in the 60s to low 70s. Heading into Monday, the center of the upper level ridge will shift eastward with troughing becoming the dominant feature over us. The return of troughing will help the marine layer to (slightly) deepen and bring it from approximately 1000 ft to 1200-1500 ft. A slightly deeper marine layer will allow for a greater inland intrusion of stratus, but, stratus is not likely to be as widespread as it was last week. Temperatures are expected to drop by around 5 degrees for most interior locations. This will see a return of highs in the low to mid 80s while the higher elevations above the marine layer will stay comparatively warmer in the upper 80s to low 90s. Coastal areas will remain in the 60s to low 70s with additional periods of coastal drizzle likely during the early morning hours. The one questionable part of the forecast is if any thunderstorms will be able to develop across the North Bay Interior Mountains (particularly Napa County) early Monday morning. The Euro suggests that there will be sufficient moisture, instability, and lift as a weak shortwave trough moves in to California for orographically driven thunderstorms to develop there early Monday morning. NBM guidance gives around a 5% chance of thunderstorms developing. Any precipitation that falls would likely be virga/evaporate before reaching the surface given model Skew-T soundings showing a large dry layer between the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere. Confidence remains low overall in storm development, however, as other models (GFS, NAM, HRRR, RRFS) do not support storms developing tomorrow morning with the Euro being an outlier. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1237 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 (Tuesday through next Saturday) Troughing prevails through Tuesday with high temperatures remaining in the 60s to 70s along the coast, 80s across the interior, upper 80s to low 90s across the higher elevations, and upper 90s to low 100s across the interior Central Coast. Stratus is expected along the coast and portions of the SF Bay shoreline but continues to be limited in extent. The center of the upper level ridge shifts back westwards Wednesday to Thursday with high temperatures warming by around 5 degrees across the interior (largely returning temperatures to the upper 80s to 90s). Friday into the weekend, temperatures cool by a few degrees as ridging weakens and troughing deepens/strengthens over the Pacific. Troughing looks to continue into next week with a deep upper level low moving into the Pacific Northwest and Northern California. It will be worth keeping an eye on this incoming trough and the arrival of any potential tropical moisture towards the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC guidance shows three active areas of tropical interest offshore of Mexico with recently named TS Iselle in the vicnity as well. Guidance is starting to indicate some tropical moisture from these systems may be brought north as the trough arrives but it is unclear how far north this tropical moisture will go. Some models keep it more over Southern California while others bring it up into Monterey/San Benito counties. Models are already showing an increase in southerly swell associated with the uptick in tropical activity across the Eastern Pacific this weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 439 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR continues except for patchy coastal stratus and fog /MVFR- IFR/. Mid and high clouds, including wildfire smoke over the north Central Coast, are moving northeastward over the forecast area. Coastal stratus and fog /MVFR-IFR-LIFR/ redevelop tonight and Monday morning. Conditions improve to MVFR-VFR along the coast late Monday morning and afternoon otherwise VFR Monday. Vicinity of SFO...VFR prevails until stratus /MVFR/ develops 12z Monday. VFR returns 18z Monday. West wind 5 to 15 knots with occasional afternoon and evening gusts near 20 knots. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR then stratus /IFR-LIFR/ moves inland mid to late evening to Monday morning. Conditions improve to MVFR- VFR late Monday morning and afternoon. West to northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 433 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Moderate northwest breezes gradually diminish this evening and become gentle by tomorrow. Occasional strong gusts are possible this Sunday afternoon, particularly across the Northern outer waters and near the Big Sur coast. Slight to moderate wind driven seas prevail into the work week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Navarrete Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  930 FXAK69 PAFG 232341 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 341 PM AKDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... - Temperatures will be their lowest today, ranging between the 50s to mid 60s before warming slightly this week. - Showery conditions continue through Sunday in the Eastern Interior. There is a slight chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two to develop Sunday as well. - Rainfall returns to the Central and Eastern Interior Monday through Wednesday. West Coast and Western Interior... - Another storm approaches the West Coast Sunday and is expected to bring yet another round of gusty winds, moderate to heavy rainfall, and locally higher tides. High Surf Advisories have been issued for the Southern Seward Peninsula, Norton Sound Coast, and Yukon Delta Coast. - Rainfall accumulations are expected to range from 0.25 to as high as 1 inch throughout the West Coast and Western Interior through Monday with locally higher amounts along the Southern Seward Peninsula. - Cool temperatures expected with highs in the 50s to near 60 through much of the upcoming week. North Slope and Brooks Range... - Gusty winds are expected across the North Slope as a low moves northeast across the Western Arctic Coast. Generally southerly winds are expected, more easterly along the Eastern Arctic Coast, more southwesterly west of Point Barrow. Winds peak Monday and then slowly weaken through Tuesday. - Temperatures warm across the North Slope Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 50s to low 60s. - Rain showers are expected along the Western Arctic Coast Monday. && .SYNOPSIS... A moderately strong Bering Sea low moves northeast along the West Coast now through Tuesday. This system brings gusty winds to the West Coast, Western Arctic Coast, and Brooks Range, moderate to heavy rainfall to the West Coast, Brooks Range, and most of the Interior, and high surf to coastal communities from Nome to Hooper Bay. Higher pressure follows which briefly improves conditions before another storm approaches late Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At the start of the extended forecast period, Sunday, the remnants of a front that had stalled near the Central Interior start to slowly push east as they scatter. Showery conditions are expected across the Eastern Interior through Sunday. High pressure builds over the Western Interior as a ridge attempts to build into the area. Along the West Coast a moderately strong low pressure system around 990 millibars moves northeast through the Gulf of Anadyr towards the Chukchi Sea by Monday morning. This low is bringing strong southeasterly winds across the West Coast Sunday which will then shift southwesterly overnight into Monday. High Surf is expected along the Coastline from Hooper Bay north to Nome during the Monday high tide which may cause some beach erosion. As the low moves northeast along the Arctic Coast winds increase along the Arctic Coast and through the Brooks Range. A front on the south side of the low gets caught in the Interior as the low moves north. This front becomes disorganized late Monday and becomes a messy area of low pressure that will slowly move east across the Interior through midweek. As this messy lower pressure area enters the Central Interior, an area of enhanced vorticity moves out of the Bering Sea and reinforces the low pressure region over the Interior. This area of vorticity follows another upper level low that is unable to form a distinct surface low. The additional energy from this feature strengthens the low pressure over the Interior and enhances precipitation over the region. This enhanced low pressure will lead to a brief period of enhanced southerly flow over the Alaska range Tuesday. Drying from these southerly winds combine with the enhanced moisture to cause the forecast for the southeastern Interior to be somewhat messy and uncertain. Showery conditions with gusty southerly winds are currently expected, but the strength of the winds and the rain totals are still uncertain. Behind this mess of lower pressure another weak ridge attempts to build in from the Bering Sea ahead of yet another large low pressure system approaching the West Coast Thursday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... At the start of the extended forecast period, late Wednesday, pressure continues to build in the Interior which starts to push out the showery remnants of our messy low pressure system. Thursday another low approaches the West Coast and is expected to track south of the Bering Strait from the northwestern Bering towards the YK Delta region. This track is not expected to produce any significant high water impacts, but additional moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds are expected across much of the West Coast and Western Interior. This system is expected to impact that area late Thursday through Saturday with higher pressure attempting to build in once more Sunday. Coastal Hazard Potential... A gale force low moves from the Gulf of Anadyr northeast through the Chukchi sea and along the Arctic Coast Sunday through Tuesday. As the low moves north winds shift southwesterly behind it. A long fetch of southwesterly winds into the Norton Sound Sunday night into Monday. Water levels peak with the high tide Monday morning. High surf advisories have been issued for the coast from Nome to Hooper Bay. Water levels are expected to exceed the normal high tide line by 1.5 to 2.5 feet near the Yukon Delta, 4 to 6 feet for the Eastern Norton Sound Coast, by 3 to 5 feet near Golovin, and by 2 to 3.5 feet near Nome. The Tuesday high tide will be above normal as well, but not as high as Monday with much less risk of excessive erosion. The rest of the Coastline up to Point Barrow is also expected to see rises, but not enough to cause any notable impacts. Special weather statements have been issued for these areas. && .FIRE WEATHER... While much of the region remains quiet fire weather-wise, the Upper Tanana Valley will continue to see some stronger wind gusts, lower relative humidity values, and higher temperatures than surrounding areas. Stronger northwest sustained winds between 5-15 mph and gusts up to 25 mph are likely to continue along the Eastern Alaska Range through tonight. Over the past 12 hours, some locations in the Upper Tanana have received over 0.5" of rain, with an additional 0.05"- 0.1" expected through this evening. Showers may be accompanied by isolated thunderstorms, with chances expected to taper off by the late afternoon into the evening. Chances for some isolated storms are also likely for the Yukon Flats and portions of the Forty Mile country this afternoon into the evening as lifted index values remain low and instability in the area is present. Generally wetter conditions in the Upper Tanana have allowed fire weather conditions to briefly diminish today. However, upper level ridging builds back into the area by Monday, allowing drier conditions and higher temperatures to return to the area. High temperatures are expected to reach the upper 60s and could surpass 70 if the forecast over-performs. Minimum relative humidity values are expected to range in the upper 30s to mid 40s percent, dropping by about 20 percent from today. Winds are expected to remain light and variable with little to no chance for isolated storms. By Tuesday, there is more confidence that high temperatures could reach the low 70s with slightly higher minimum relative humidity values in the 40s percent range. An uptick in winds on Tuesday is likely as south/southwest winds gusting up to 15 mph could channel through the Tok Cutoff as troughing digs down from a low moving north/northeast. Moisture from this same low currently located in the Bering Sea is expected to reach the Upper Tanana Valley by Tuesday night, bringing additional rain accumulations of around 0.1"-0.2". By Wednesday, stronger northwest gusts up to 20 mph are likely to continue over the Upper Tanana as the gradient between the high to the south and the low to the north remains prevalent. High temperatures are expected to cool into the upper 50s with a good chance of exceeding 60 while minimum relatively humidity continues to increase and is likely to reach the 50 percent range. Looking ahead for the rest of the week, a second low is expected to move into the Bering Sea by Thursday, reinforcing strong southerly gusts through Tok Cutoff Thursday night into Friday morning as the low moves east. && .HYDROLOGY... Through the short & long term forecast periods, a couple of wet Gale-force lows are expected to march toward the Bering Sea coastal area, 1 for late-weekend into early next week & the other for late in the work-week. Both of these systems look to bring appreciable rainfall amounts, especially for the West Coast and Western Interior, but they are not expected to bring any stream- flooding concerns to the region as current state of the rivers remain low. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ822. High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 4 PM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ824. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ825. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ801. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ801-802-853-854. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ802. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ803. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ803-852. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ804-808-810-855-856. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ805-807-852. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ805. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ806. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ809- 811. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ812- 858. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ816-851. Gale Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ817-854. Gale Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ850. Gale Warning until 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ850. Gale Warning until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ853. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM AKDT Monday for PKZ853. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ858. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Stokes SYNOPSIS...Stokes SHORT TERM...Stokes LONG TERM...Stokes COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...Stokes FIRE WEATHER...Srinivasan HYDROLOGY...Chambers  846 FXUS63 KLSX 232339 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 639 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable temperatures in the 80s continue this week with mostly dry weather expected. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A ridge of high pressure in the Southwest US and a trough over the Great Lakes has led to a subsident upper level flow through our area. That promotes high pressure and dry weather. At the surface, broad high pressure extends from western Ontario south into northern Missouri this afternoon with this high gradually nudging east over the next couple days. Tonight we'll see winds go light and temperatures drop into the low 60s and upper 50s. For some this will be the first time we've seen 50s since June. Clouds have the potential to complicate the cooling forecast tonight, especially in central Missouri. A limited attempt at moisture return northward through the Plains tonight may trigger an area of convection in Nebraska, tracking southeast into western Missouri. The rain from this likely stays west of our forecast area, but clouds have a better potential to spread into central Missouri, potentially holding temperatures a bit warmer overnight, in the low 60s. Tomorrow will be a very similar day to today, though perhaps a few degrees warmer. The high slides east allowing winds to turn southeasterly. Another day of sun will help to modify the air mass back into the low to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The trough in the east sees some reorientation this week. The initial trough lifts northeast out of New England and into the Canadian Maritimes while another trough arrives from the west and digs into the Great Lakes to replace it. Meanwhile, the Southwest Ridge remains largely in the same location with some daily wobbles. For us locally we'll maintain the persistent northwest flow aloft with richer moisture remaining suppressed to the south and west. Temperatures continue to gradually rebound through the mid and even upper 80s by Wednesday. The next trough arriving in the Great Lakes pushes a cold front southward through our forecast area Wednesday into Wednesday night. This represents our next best chance for rain, but those chances remain fairly limited locally. The better forcing with the trough passes by to our north, while the richer moisture remains suppressed to our south. The low resolution ensemble (LREF) guidance remains more ambitious with rain chances than the NBM. Of the LREF guidance, 60 to 70 percent of members produce rain across our forecast area in the 24 hours ending Wednesday night, up 10 percent from yesterday. Meanwhile, NBM 12hour PoP remains in the 10 to 20 percent range. This discrepancy is partially a result of timing variance in the guidance, but also uncertainty in the development of another convective complex to our west over the Plains linking up with the better moisture. The LREF may also be overestimating the rain chances a bit due to the lower resolution of this guidance, something NBM is tuned to adjust for with low QPF events. If we look deeper in the LREF we see the percentage of members that produce 0.05 inch or greater rainfall is only 30 to 40 percent over that same time period. This gives credence to the idea that the low resolution guidance may be indicating more widespread light rain amounts than should be expected as precipitation in this time period should be convective in nature. The air mass behind Wednesday's front is not as cool and dry as the last one, and we only get a small taste of it. So we do see the high temperature forecast for Thursday and Friday a few degrees lower than Wednesday, but still near normal for this time of year, in the mid 80s.Guidance is in good agreement that the western ridge flattens and spreads out across the southern tier of the country this weekend into the following week. This reduces the extremity of the heat within the ridge, but also broadens that warmth back into our area. By Saturday the NBM probability of 90 degrees creeps back up into the 20 to 40 percent range. Mercifully, the humidity remains limited at least initially, with NBM probability of 70 dewpoint only up to about 40 percent by the same time frame. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A field of mid/upper-level clouds continues to move into the region from the northwest with a few light showers also sliding into central MO and locations to the southwest. With dry air at the surface and cloud bases above 10kft, evaporation should limit what reaches the surface. Therefore, no impacts to visibilities are expected at KCOU/KJEF from these weak showers. Fog remains possible tonight but will be dependent on how quickly the mid/upper-level clouds clear, which is something that remains uncertain. Currently, fog formation is most likely across Illinois where clearing will happen earlier, along with river valley locations making confidence highest in fog happening at KSUS/KCPS and possibly KUIN. Uncertainty in fog impacts is highest at KJEF as lingering cloud cover tonight may limit the threat or delay it until closer to sunrise. Regardless, areas that fog in will return to VFR flight conditions around 13-14z Monday. Calm and variable winds tonight become light (5kts) and easterly late in the morning into the afternoon. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kimble LONG TERM...Kimble AVIATION...Peine  919 FXUS64 KMOB 232341 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 641 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 636 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - A Heat Advisory is in effect for southeast Mississippi today for heat indices to around 108 degrees. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected each afternoon, particularly across the southern half of the area. Storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Forecast remains on track; no updates needed. /96 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Hot and humid conditions continue the rest of this afternoon across the area across southeast Mississippi as heat indices soar into the 105 to 110 range. Elsewhere, afternoon mixing is helping to limit higher dewpoints keeping it a bit more tolerable for heat stress. The same can be expected on Monday, although there are some uncertainties in regards to the overall evolution of showers and storms that precludes confidence in issuing a heat advisory at this time. With that said, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will likely occur across the area both this afternoon and Monday afternoon as several shortwaves track southeast across the area. Strong, potentially damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning can be expected with any storms. As we head throughout the rest of the week, we remain in a relatively similar pattern with upper troughing remaining in control across the eastern half of the U.S. and upper ridging located across the south-central into southwestern U.S. Tuesday through Friday. This will continue to favor weak shortwaves tracking across the area throughout the period, bringing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon to the forecast area. Similar to prior days, strong, locally damaging wind gusts are possible with any storms. The heat should relax with the increased coverage of storms, with heat indices likely remaining just below heat advisory criteria as we head through the rest of the week. Afternoon temperatures also drop somewhat with highs only in the lower to middle 90's as opposed to the upper 90's to near 100 we've been enduring. A Low risk of rip currents will continue through the late week for our Alabama and Florida Panhandle beaches. MM/25 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tonight and into the morning hours on Monday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms should start to develop across the area by the late morning/early afternoon hours. Expect brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. A few strong to severe storms, capable of producing gusty/erratic winds cannot be ruled out. Light and variable winds tonight will become a light northwesterly to westerly flow by the mid to late morning hours. Winds along the coast may become more southerly by the afternoon. /96 && .MARINE... Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A light to occasionally moderate westerly flow pattern continues through this week. Winds are expected to shift from southwesterly each afternoon to northwesterly late each night. Isolated to potentially scattered showers and storms can be expected each morning during next week with locally higher seas and winds near storms. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 75 95 74 91 / 10 60 40 70 Pensacola 78 93 77 90 / 30 50 40 70 Destin 80 91 78 89 / 10 40 50 60 Evergreen 72 97 71 94 / 20 40 50 50 Waynesboro 73 97 73 93 / 20 50 40 60 Camden 73 95 7292 / 10 30 40 30 Crestview 73 95 72 92 / 20 50 50 60 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. GM...None. && $$  872 FXUS64 KTSA 232340 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 640 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1245 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Temperatures above normal with continued periods of high heat stress will continue through week. The possible exception being around active thunderstorm activity. - Limited risk of severe weather Sunday night into early Monday with damaging wind potential the primary hazard. - Areas of localized fire weather concerns will persist until widespread beneficial rainfall occurs. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Notable mid level wave currently passing western KS will continue southeastward increasing forcing across the local region this evening through tonight. Guidance has remained in good agreement in developing a corridor of showers and storms from NE OK through western AR from late evening through the overnight hours before gradually diminishing through Monday morning. No obvious reason to disagree and the forecast precip chances will align accordingly. Forecast profiles maintain a dry sub cloud layer and strengthening mid level flow through the overnight hours favoring localized wind damage potential. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Sunday) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Extensive cloud cover and ongoing precip will influence temperature trends Monday with a large range in temps likely across the forecast area by afternoon. Heat advisories may be needed for portions of the area as confidence increases in temperature trends. Hot temperatures are more likely across a larger portion of the area on Tuesday ahead of the next weak cold front. Blended guidance favors a minor cool down by Wednesday with very low precip chances across the region. Any cool down will likely be brief with hot temperatures expanding area wide by late week. Overall precip chances remain low beyond Monday and the lack of widespread beneficial rainfall will drive localized fire weather concerns through the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Scattered to overcast high clouds are forecast to remain common through the period, along with few to broken mid clouds developing late tonight and Monday. Shower and thunderstorm chances return overnight tonight through early Monday afternoon with a shortwave dropping through the region. Greater potential looks to be early to late morning Monday and will continue Prob30 groups for timing for northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Otherwise, will carry VCSH just outside of the Prob30 groups. Gusty to locally strong winds, brief heavy rains, and brief MVFR conditions could develop within the convection Monday morning. Winds through the period continue to be easterly tonight and then transition between east and south Monday. Outside of any convection, VFR conditions are forecast through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 77 99 74 99 / 30 20 0 10 FSM 76 99 74 104 / 30 30 0 0 MLC 79 104 77 106 / 10 20 20 0 BVO 69 96 70 97 / 40 20 0 0 FYV 71 92 70 99 / 60 40 10 0 BYV 68 90 69 95 / 70 70 10 0 MKO 75 99 73 101 / 30 20 0 0 MIO 69 93 71 96 / 70 30 10 0 F10 76 102 74 102 / 20 20 0 10 HHW 77 103 76 104 / 0 20 20 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-060-061- 064>067-070-071-073>075-176-272. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...20  936 FXUS66 KSGX 232341 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 441 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Monsoonal moisture will decrease this weekend, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for the mountains and lower deserts returning for Monday afternoon. Above average high and low temperatures will continue through next week. Widespread moderate to locally major HeatRisk for the coast, valleys, and mountains except near the beaches and for the higher elevations in the mountains, with major to extreme HeatRisk for the lower deserts. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... This morning's marine layer was very shallow - around 500 ft deep - with areas of fog between I-5 and I-15. Otherwise, yet another day of summer sunshine is in store for the region with a few cirrus clouds passing by. Low clouds are expected to redevelop later this evening, bringing patchy dense fog to coastal areas and western valleys overnight tonight. The marine layer will compress even more throughout next week, yielding overnight fog mainly to coastal areas and perhaps down to the beaches. While southwesterly flow aloft is not the most ideal setup for monsoonal moisture, thunderstorm chances return for early this week. Pulses of higher PWAT's above 1.3 inches are forecast to move over our mountains early Monday through Tuesday afternoon. While some long range models continue to show no precip throughout the week, high resolution guidance such as the RREF, HRRR and HiRes-FV3 show scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon, yielding around a 20-35% chance for a shower/t-storm for a given area over the mountains and adjacent desert slopes. Chances drop to 10-20% Tuesday afternoon and drop further thereafter, though chances may increase again for late week if PWAT's rebound as the ECMWF is forecasting. Temperatures are still on track to increase Monday through Wednesday, yielding temperatures generally 8 to 12 degrees above average - backing off slightly from yesterday's forecast. Nevertheless, Major HeatRisk is on track to expand all the way to coastal areas by late week as highs inland range from 95-107 degrees F with nighttime low only dropping to the mid-70s (above the very thin inversion a few-hundred feet above sea level). The low deserts are consistently expected to see highs of 110-115F Tuesday through Friday along with Major/Extreme HeatRisk. While highs in coastal areas mid-late week will mainly remain below 90 degrees F, overnight temperatures will struggle to drop below the lower 70s, which will especially affect those without access to air conditioning. The Heat Advisory remains in effect for inland areas through 10 AM Tuesday, followed by an Extreme Heat Watch through Friday 8 PM for the whole region (except for the lower deserts which are already in an Extreme Heat Warning through Friday evening). Confidence is low at this point, though both the ECMWF and GFS show a weakening of the Four Corners ridge, and thus potentially less hot temperatures, starting next Sunday. Take breaks in the shade, hydrate and seek A/C when possible! && .AVIATION... 232330Z...Coast...Currently, clear skies at most coastal areas with a few clouds moving in at 600ft MSL over southern San Diego. Low clouds with bases 200-800ft MSL have a 35-55% chance of forming after 09-11Z for coastal San Diego. Vis restrictions of 1-3SM will be possible with vis less than 1 SM near higher coastal terrain. Low clouds and vis restrictions have a 20-50% chance of lingering along the immediate coast after 15Z-18Z. Otherwise...VFR conditions through the TAF period with FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20,000ft MSL. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday. && .BEACHES... A 4-5 foot southerly swell (from 170 degrees) at 13-15 seconds will move into the area Wednesday and Thursday, leading to elevated surf for the south facing beaches of northern San Diego County and Orange County. Breaking waves of 4 to 6 feet expected, sets up to 8 feet possible at beaches that face due south. Surf gradually subsides on Friday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Friday evening for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Orange County Coastal Areas- Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys- Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Heat Advisory until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for Coachella Valley- San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Westerink AVIATION/MARINE...Villafane  964 FXUS62 KMHX 232342 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 742 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant forecast or messaging changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Localized severe threat for coastal areas remains this afternoon and will linger into Monday. Monday's threat may impact areas farther inland. 2) Reduced thunderstorm risk possible Tuesday and Wednesday, with unsettled weather returning by late week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold front is expected to stall along the coast as overall forcing weakens and shifts away from the region. With a more stable airmass in place behind the sea breeze and dry air aloft, thunderstorm chances are quickly diminishing for the rest of the evening. However, some overnight redevelopment of showers and storms is possible as the front will remain in the area, and elevated instability will remain abundant. Overall moisture is not as deep as the past few days and the overall flooding threat is comparatively lower. Guidance continues to depict a weak surface low lifting NE along the frontal boundary tomorrow (the low may actually subtly pull the boundary farther inland as it progresses). Overall pre-storm environment will be similar tomorrow, sans a modest uptick in effective shear in the vicinity of the low. This may provide a marginally better environment for supercell development. If the front does get pulled west, the convective risk will also follow suit. The greatest risk of strong to severe thunderstorms remains east of HWY 17 with damaging winds remaining the primary threat, with hail possible in supercells. KEY MESSAGE 2...Guidance still struggling on whether or not the airmass can fully dry out Tuesday and Wednesday as our current frontal boundary may still be stalled nearby. Isolated showers and storms cannot be ruled out but coverage is likely to be far sparser than the past few days. Moisture and instability then begin to rebuild across the Southeast U.S. coastline with the potential for another round of unsettled weather. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Moderate confidence in VFR conditions overnight. Light winds and clear skies tonight will be present tonight but modestly drier air raises uncertainty on fog and low stratus coverage. At least some isolated coverage appears probable but kept sub-VFR CIG mentions at SCT given the lack of confidence. Added prob30 mentions for TSRA for ISO, EWN, OAJ for tomorrow afternoon and early evening as convection should be diurnally driven. Kept PGV out of it for now given the front will most likely be east of PGV and dry air may prevent tsra from reaching the terminal. Outlook: A front will remain stalled along the coast of the Carolinas through at least Tuesday. The front may get pulled west a bit tomorrow and Tuesday as a couple of lows ride north along it. This would up the TSRA risk some, especially from KOAJ to KEWN. A risk of sub-VFR conditions would accompany any TSRA risk as well. && .MARINE... A cold front approaches area waters this afternoon, stalling across the area over the next couple of days. A couple of weak areas of low pressure are then forecast to lift northeast along the front tonight and tomorrow, favoring periods of thunderstorms in the overnight and early morning. Varying wind directions are expected as the pair of lows move through, but neither low looks all that strong. For the coastal waters, seas of 2-3 ft are expected today through tomorrow. Outlook: Winds will become northeasterly for a brief time on Tuesday before southerly flow returns by the middle of the week, and lasting into the end of the week. Seas should generally hold around 2-3ft through Thursday, then build to 3-5ft late in the week. The risk of thunderstormsmay decrease some Tuesday and Wednesday before increasing again later in the week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RM/MS AVIATION...RM/MS/RJ MARINE...RM/MS  987 FXUS63 KDVN 232343 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 643 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather and pleasant temperatures and humidity continue into Monday. - Mainly dry this week with 20 to 40 percent chances of showers and storms Wednesday and again next Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Nice late-August weather is expected through Monday with seasonable temperatures and comfortable humidity. Expect lows in the 50s tonight, and then a rebound into the upper 70s/low 80s for Monday. Winds will remain light with high pressure in control. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to continue through the upcoming week. A storm system is forecast to pass to our north and east Tuesday night through Wednesday night with 20 to 30 percent chances of showers and storms. Models show a slight increase in moisture ahead of this storm system. Currently the higher chances of precipitation are across northwest Illinois. Rainfall amounts will be light with generally less than a tenth of an inch expected. High temperatures on Wednesday will be slightly warmer into the lower to mid 80s. After Wednesday night, models show another shortwave topping the western U.S. ridge and flattening the flow aloft to more zonal. This system will begin to impact the area late Friday night into Saturday, bringing more humid conditions and another chance for precipitation. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 643 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Largely VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period, under light and variable winds. The only possible exception will be late tonight as patchy fog could develop over the area. The latest NBM probabilities of MVFR visibility reductions are around 30-50% - highest around CID and BRL - so have decided to use TEMPO groups for those two terminals. Some models are quite bullish on fog tonight, with some going down to IFR visbys, but confidence isn't high enough to go that low at this time. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...Cousins/Uttech AVIATION...Schultz  032 FXUS62 KJAX 232344 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 744 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - A Strong Storm Possible Late this Afternoon/Evening - Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and. Hazards: Wind Gusts 40-60 mph, Localized downpours. Concern Area: North of I-10 - Moderate Afternoon Rip Current Risk this afternoon. Possible Increase in Rip Current Risk by Tuesday && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Highlights through Tonight: - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms south of I-10 this afternoon - Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm this evening for SE GA. Drier airmass with PWATs around 1.5 inches continues to push southward into SE GA and close to the FL/GA border late this morning while deeper moisture will be pooled south of I-10 this afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop within and along the edge of the moisture axis through the afternoon. Some warming air aloft will keep instability in check this afternoon across NE FL but a few stronger storms, capable of strong gusts, may develop along the pinned Atlantic sea breeze in St Johns and Flagler counties this afternoon. Some training may occur but generally southwesterly storm motion of around 10-15 mph should limit the potential for substantial flooding. Though the dry air will limit much convection throughout the afternoon north of I-10, model ensemble guidance indicates leftover moisture from an ongoing MCS over the lower Mississippi river valley may be enveloped by the westerly flow aloft and transported into SE GA early this evening. This will give a late day window for isolated convection to develop despite the lower level dryness. The interplay between the increase instability and dry air may support strong to severe microburst activity (winds 40-60 mph) with isolated convection in the SE GA vicinity this evening. The Storm Prediction Center has kept a "Marginal Risk" of severe storms north of I-10 given this potential wind threat this evening. Activity will wane by midnight with dry conditions through the early morning hours Monday. Temperatures will soar into the mid and upper 90s across SE GA this afternoon but drier air will keep heat index in the 100-104F range. Temperatures will be a few degrees lower in NE FL, but low level moisture in the air will make it feel like 103-107F this afternoon. Low temps tonight still expected in the lower/middle 70s inland, and upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Increase in showers and storms with return of moisture, higher chances heading into midweek. Southwesterly flow will persist through the beginning of the week, south of the stalled frontal boundary to the north and ridging extending over the southern portion of the Florida peninsula from out of the east, bringing increased atmospheric moisture before midweek with PWAT values rising to over 2 inches, resulting in higher chances for numerous showers and storms over southeast Georgia on Monday and then expanding to include portions of northeast Florida by Tuesday as rising PWATs spread southward. Daytime high temperatures will drop down from out of the mid to upper 90s on Monday down into the lower to mid 90s on Tuesday, with overnight low temperatures remaining fairly consistently in the lower 70s over inland areas and in the mid 70s along the coastline. Heat index values will rise to be over 100 during this period but are expected to remain below heat advisory criteria each day. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Active weather continues past midweek of the upcoming week Pattern for diurnal convection with a potential for the development of stronger storms will continue through the extended period into Saturday as southwesterly flow persists between the receding frontal boundary to the north and high pressure ridging extending over the Florida peninsula from out of the east. Temperatures will trend slightly above average through the end of the week and into the weekend with daily high temperatures reaching into the lower 90s. Heat index values will rise to be over 100 during this period but are expected to remain below heat advisory criteria each day. Tropics Outlook: NHC has a 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation mid to late week across the central Atlantic. Locally, rip current activity could become more enhanced late week depending on the evolution of this system. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... VFR conditions to persist over the TAF sites with only VQQ with typical MVFR fog from 07-11Z. Rainfall chances return after 18Z, with PROB30 groups for the JAX metro sites and SSI with the inland push of the Atlantic sea breeze. && .MARINE... A stalled front near the Georgia coastal waters will linger through Monday before dissolving through the week. Main maritime concern will be increasing potential for afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day during the upcoming week. The steering winds will generally move thunderstorms from the shoreline toward the offshore waters during the evening hours. Outside of thunderstorm influences, low to calm seas and light offshore winds persist. Rip Currents: Surf/breakers will remain 1 to 2 feet early this week in the mainly offshore flow with overall low rip current risk, but brief periods of moderate risk will exist during the afternoon hours as local onshore sea breeze develops each day. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Locally High Dispersion Monday For Se Ga West to southwesterly flow continues today and into midweek across most locations, with east to southeast winds across coastal locations during the afternoon hours as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland. Drier air will bring lower humidity and mostly dry weather during the afternoon hours across southeast Georgia today, with showers and storms possible during the late afternoon to early hours, while scattered to isolated afternoon showers and storms will continue across northeast FL. Moisture levels begin to increase next week, with chances of showers and storms increasing through the week. Hotter temperatures Today and Monday will increase mixing heights across southeast GA, with locally high dispersion Monday afternoon. Fog Potential: Significant fog is unlikely, and any strong wind will be associated with nearby thunderstorm activity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 73 96 73 94 / 0 40 20 70 SSI 78 95 77 91 / 0 50 30 70 JAX 75 95 73 92 / 0 50 50 80 SGJ 75 95 75 92 / 0 20 20 70 GNV 73 94 73 91 / 0 20 20 70 OCF 74 94 74 91 / 10 20 10 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$  258 FXAK67 PAJK 232346 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 346 PM AKDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - An atmospheric river moves into the southern panhandle Sunday evening, bringing moderate rain and periods of heavy rain. - Clearing for the northern half of the panhandle by Monday afternoon. More breaks in the clouds on Tuesday. - Onshore flow continues through Wednesday and Thursday, with continued rain chances. More clearing possible Friday. && .SHORT TERM...Main area of interest continues to be the atmospheric river moving into the southern panhandle, primarily impacting Ketchikan, Metlakatla, and Misty Fjords. Satellite imagery of incoming moisture continue to show stout precipitable water of around 1.2 inches. This combined with estimated aloft winds shows IVT values exceeding 500 kg/ms. This plume, along with freezing levels exceeding 10000 ft, is expected to bring a majority of the heavy rain for the aforementioned areas. The warm front associated with this system is currently around the Kake area, and is expected to stall, as the stronger shortwave wraps around the upper level parent low in the gulf. Main changes to the forecast is the tightening up of heaviest rainfall, now primarily between 4 PM today and 4 AM tomorrow morning. A secondary shortwave is starting to look increasingly likely, moving up from the south along Dixon Entrance Monday into Monday night. Currently have this as moderate rain, but could see pocket of heavy rain, particularly for Metlakatla. Another change is how far the strong shortwave tonight will push northward on Monday. Confidence has increased that most areas will at least see some rainfall, including in Haines and Skagway during the morning to early afternoon hours. Not expecting a large impact, as a majority of the moisture will be drained as it moves northward, as well as the waves losing upper level support. Rain amounts are mostly unchanged through Monday afternoon, although the secondary wave will need to be monitored closely to adjust. From the previous discussion: likely to see around 2.5 to 3.5 inches of rain in 24 hours, with isolated areas seeing up to or more than 4 inches. There is even a slight chance for the aforementioned areas to see those higher rates to around 4 inches in 24 hours. .LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/... A broad upper-level trough continues to make its way across the panhandle Wednesday and Thursday, which is likely to drive an active, wetter pattern through the middle of the week. Low level troughing, that looks to build off of western Alaska, and the moisture associated with it push eastward across the gulf early Wednesday morning which is expected to bring wide spread rain to the panhandle on Wednesday afternoon. Rain is likely to last through most of the day on Thursday before the main frontal boundary shifts east. There is a chance for an area of high pressure to build sometime early in the day Friday which could bring a brief period of clearing, especially over the northern panhandle. Confidence in rain chances then increases later in the day on Friday as another front approaches the panhandle from across the the gulf. Rain is expected to persist through the rest of the period. Rain accumulations through the period are expected to be light to moderate, with coastal locations likely to receive higher rainfall totals. Temperatures are likely to be in the upper 50s to 60s with low diurnal ranges due to constant cloud cover. && .AVIATION...Southern panhandle is the main source of aviation problems tonight. A wet front will be bringing mainly low vis and ceilings for many areas due to rain from Frederick Sound southward. Lowest conditions will be over the Wrangell, Ketchikan, Misty Fjords, and Annette Island area overnight with vis as low as 2 to 3 miles and ceilings down to 500 to 1000 ft. There might be a little improvement Monday but MVFR and IFR conditions will still be rather widespread south of Sumner Strait. Farther north, more offshore flow will cause conditions to improve the farther N and W you go tonight into Monday. VFR conditions will be more likely encountered north of Frederick Sound and skies will likely have significant breaks in the cloud cover NW of Dry Bay. As for winds, Surface winds will be gusty south of Sumner Strait overnight. Clarance Strait, Misty Fjords, Ketchikan, and Annette Island in particular could see SE gusts to 30 kt. Winds aloft in the vicinity of Ketchikan and Annette Island will not be much better with SE winds up to 35 to 40 kt at 2000 ft ASL, so expect a little low level speed shear overnight and possible turbulence. Wind conditions improve into Monday as the main winds from the system move into Canada. && .MARINE...Outer Waters: Low pressure will move across the eastern portions of the Gulf through tonight. In advance of it, winds will become mainly southeasterly and gradually increase. We still expect a weak barrier jet to form along the northeast Gulf coast early today and then slowly weaken. By late afternoon and early evening, winds will generally turn more northeasterly. Around Dixon Entrance, we also expect a rather significant increase in wind speeds to around 25-30 kts, with higher gusts. Seas will also build in that area to around 8 feet before subsiding after 15Z Monday as winds decrease. Inner Channels: Although there continue to be a few differences in the model solutions, especially in regard to the timing of the incoming system and frontal passage, it still appears that the most significant increase in winds will affect mainly Sumner Strait southward. Wind gusts to 35 kt are possible in Clarence Strait tonight with seas forecast to build to 8 feet. As the low pressure and front pass later Monday, winds and seas will gradually diminish. Elsewhere across the inner channels, winds are expected to remain generally 10 knots or less into Monday, except for parts of Lynn Canal where winds around 15 knots are possible at times. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036. && $$ SHORT TERM...NC LONG TERM...AGP AVIATION...EAL MARINE...Ferrin Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  286 FXUS61 KPBZ 232347 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 747 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the forecast package. Aviation discussion updated for the 00z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms through this evening, mainly north of US-422, with very low severe weather potential. 2) Mostly dry through Wednesday. Precipitation chances increase Thursday, with some low-end potential for severe weather depending on future model trends. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Upper level low pressure continues to spin over far southern Ontario, with associated troughing in place over the eastern Great Lakes and the Upper Ohio Valley. Two main vorticity maxima rotate through the flow into tonight - one closer to the Lake Erie shoreline this afternoon and a more vigorous one dropping across our CWA this evening. These will be responsible for continuing the chances for scattered to numerous, but brief, showers and localized thunderstorms through 06Z or so tonight. Coverage appears best with the second wave, with most activity north of US-422. Still, thunderstorms will become a bit less likely with that wave with diurnal stabilization. Chances of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon/evening remain quite low overall. While surface-based CAPE may peak in the 1000-1200 J/kg range this afternoon, particularly north of I-80, drier air above 700mb should limit updraft depth, and 0-6km shear of less than 30 knots will be a detriment to storm organization. Along with downdraft CAPE values of 500 J/kg or less, this suggests that the damaging wind threat is very low. Hail may be observed with a few of the more vigorous cells, but the above parameters point to diameters remaining below severe limits. Precipitation coverage drops off after 06Z with the departure of the second shortwave, but a few isolated showers may continue north of I-80 with continued NW flow off of Lake Erie. KEY MESSAGE 2... Lingering cool advection within northwest flow results in high temperatures around 10 degrees below the daily average Monday while high pressure supports dry weather (save for low probability showers north of I-80). The upper low lifts toward Quebec by Tuesday, while surface high pressure overspreads the region. This continues dry weather through Wednesday, while the rising 500mb heights point to temperatures rising back to close to seasonable levels. The next trough is still pegged by ensembles to arrive Thursday. Timing issues that far out mean that the hazard potential is difficult to ascertain currently. Long- range machine-learning guidance does show a slight uptick in severe weather potential, but this risk will need more time and model cycles to be properly evaluated. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Scattered showers and potentially a few rumbles of thunder move across the area in the 00z-06z timeframe, with PROB30s at all terminals except FKL/DUJ where higher confidence in impacts favors the use of TEMPOs instead. Biggest impacts from these showers will be reduced visibilities (generally MVFR/IFR) and potentially some erratic outflow wind gusts in the 20-30 knot range. Once these showers depart the area to the east, VFR is favored everywhere except DUJ overnight into Monday. Dry weather and west winds with occasional gusts to 18-23 knots are expected during the day Monday. Outlook... No widespread IFR weather forecast through Friday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CL AVIATION...Cermak  281 FXUS62 KTBW 232347 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 747 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid conditions will continue. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf during the late night and early morning hours will move onshore each morning and then shift inland during the afternoon hours through Tuesday. - Light southerly flow sets up during midweek with a more typical summertime pattern of scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day. && .UPDATE... Issued at 744 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 It has been more active this afternoon than yesterday with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over west central Florida. Gusty winds around 35-45 mph were produced in some of the stronger storms that moved into the Tampa Bay region from the eastern Gulf waters. Some beneficial rainfall was also observed with some areas along the west coast near Tampa Bay receiving over 2 inches of rainfall. Current radar is showing things quieting down and the latest HRRR guidance is showing mostly rain-free conditions overnight across west central and southwest Florida. No changes needed to current forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 744 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions and onshore west-southwest winds less than 10 knots will prevail through the period. Shower and storm chances possible mid to late morning along the coast, moving inland through the day. Will cover this with VCTS starting after 16Z for TPA/PIE/SRQ and after 17Z for LAL/PGD/FMY/RSW. && .MARINE... Issued at 744 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 West to southwest winds will remain over the waters for the next couple of days then shift to southerly during midweek and eventually southeast next weekend. No headlines are expected as winds should remain 15 knots, except gusty and erratic near scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 79 91 79 91 / 10 30 10 20 FMY 77 95 78 95 / 20 20 10 20 GIF 74 95 75 95 / 10 30 10 30 SRQ 78 92 78 92 / 20 20 10 20 BKV 73 93 73 92 / 10 30 10 40 SPG 79 90 79 90 / 10 20 10 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hurt  290 FXUS63 KGID 232347 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 647 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another chance for scattered showers/storms returns to eastern portions of the forecast area tonight-Monday morning, mainly after midnight. Severe weather is not anticipated. - Additional thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast Monday night through Tuesday night...and there will be the potential for some storms to be strong-severe Tuesday evening and overnight. The entire forecast area remains in the SPC Day 3 Marginal/Slight Risk areas. Damaging wind gusts and large hail would be the primary hazards. - Off and on storm chances remain mid-week and through the weekend. - Temperatures experience a slight warming trend as the upper level pattern shifts starting Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Currently... An upper level shortwave disturbance sliding southeast across portions of the Central Plains has resulted in a damp end to the weekend for a good chunk of the forecast area today...with activity taking its sweet time pushing through eastern portions this afternoon. This disturbance is embedded in continued larger scale northwesterly flow...set up in a well amplified pattern across the CONUS. The main area of high pressure continues to sit over the Desert SW, with ridging extending northward through the Rockies...sandwiched between a large area of low pressure spinning over the Great Lakes with troughing dominating the East Coast, and another area of low pressure pushing east along the WA/Canada border. Outside of at times heavy rainfall rates, this activity hasn't amounted to a whole lot...as better instability has remained focused off to the west of the forecast area. Satellite imagery has shown the development of quite a range of cloud cover across the area...with mostly cloudy skies across the eastern half, more sun further west. This has resulted in mid-afternoon temps ranging from the mid 60s in the east to the low 80s in the far southwest...though those eastern areas still have the potential for late day highs if the cloud cover diminishes. At the surface, the forecast area sits between high pressure gradually working its way east and a deeper trough axis along the High Plains...bringing southeasterly winds this afternoon, at times gusting near 20 MPH. Tonight into Monday... For most locations, the forecast for this evening and tonight remains dry. Models continue to show the potential for at least scattered showers/storms developing late tonight (mainly around/after midnight) into the early morning hours on Monday...focused along the edge of a SSWrly low-level jet. Models remain consistent showing the best potential for this activity is across eastern portions of mainly our Nebraska counties...but vary some on just how far west coverage actually gets. Chances remain in the 20-40 percent range, with overall lift looking to be on the weaker side, currently not expecting notable coverage of activity. Not out of the question that a few storm could be on the strong side with MUCAPE potentially around 1500 j/kg, but the threat for severe weather continues to look low. Any activity that lingers into the daytime hours on Monday is expected to diminish by mid-morning...with the remainder of the day and at least part of the evening currently dry. Models showing little change in the overall upper level pattern, with the main high/ridging remaining over the Desert SW and Rockies. Forecast has lighter winds turning more easterly through the day, speeds topping out around 10-15 MPH. Expecting to have a bump up in afternoon highs, with generally mid 80s across central/eastern portions of our NE counties, with upper 80s-low 90s further south and west. Monday night into Tuesday... A little more uncertainty with preciptiation chances works its way back into the forecast late Monday evening into the overnight hours. Looking aloft, models showing that upper level low currently over WA/Canad having continued trekking ENE...ending up over south- central Canada by Monday evening. A southward extending sfc front (although on the weaker side) and shortwave energy looks to spark off afternoon thunderstorm development over portions of the Dakotas into the Sandhills...the main question then turning to how much of that activity works its way into our forecast area overnight. There are some notable differences between models...some showing little diminishment in activity as it moves in...others with notable waning with time. Made no changes to the NBM PoPs Monday night-Tuesday AM, which have a notable range from the 20 percent range in the ESE to 50-60 percent range further WNW. At this point, this activity is not expected to be severe. Some questions then linger through the daytime hours on Tuesday into evening/overnight...if activity does move in, how long into the day does it linger, and what impact could it have on the next expected round of thunderstorms to move through the region. Plenty of details to iron out in the next 48hrs...but additional shortwave energy is expected to fire off another round of thunderstorms off to our NW, but exactly where is a little uncertain at least partly due to where any sfc frontal boundaries may ultimately be/set up. There will be the potential for another MCS to sink SSE across the region...with models showing both better instability and shear developing to tap into. This will bring better potential for storms to be strong to severe...and the entire forecast area remains included in the SPC Day 3 Marginal/Slight risk areas, with the Slight risk area roughly from the Tri-Cities southwest-ward into western KS. Wednesday and on... Moving into Wednesday, the same overall pattern of ridging over the Rockies and troughing in the east holds in place with upper level northwest flow holding in place over the region. High temps stay consistent in the 80s on Wednesday and Thursday. Currently models are suggesting drier conditions on Wednesday with more storm potential beginning overnight into Thursday. However, as long as the northwest flow remains in place any shortwaves/disturbances through the pattern will bring potential for precip/storm development. Moving into Friday and the weekend, model guidance suggests a change in the upper level pattern as the ridging over the Rockies broadens into the plains creating a more zonal westerly flow, however a slight northwest component remains in place. A slight rise in the mid/upper level heights accompanies this pattern shift. With the rise in heights, a slight warming pattern occurs with high temps reaching into the mid 80s-low 90s on Friday before rising into the upper 80s-mid to upper 90s on Saturday/Sunday. While the northwest flow is not as strong, shortwaves and disturbances moving through this pattern continue to bring chances of convection, especially in the overnight hours. Models are not super consistent on which days have the best chance for storm development but the chance for storms will likely remain in place until the larger pattern breaks. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Surface winds this evening will be SE between 10-12kt, though a few gusts up to 18-20kt can't be ruled out. The main uncertainty with this forecast is the possibility of scattered shower/thunderstorm development tomorrow morning. Models have continued to show possible development mainly affecting KGRI, though it is not impossible to see shower/thunderstorm activity as far west as KEAR. Additionally, models are shown a slowing trend, with these showers/storms possible closer to 9Z than the previous TAF. Should this activity develop, slightly lower cloud levels around 10,000 ft are possible. Tomorrow, skies will be mostly clear by the late morning/afternoon. Winds will weaken and become more E by tomorrow evening. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADP/McGrew AVIATION...Scott  187 FXUS63 KUNR 232345 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 545 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal to Slight (Level 1-2 out of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms this evening. - Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon/evening. - Upper ridge will dominate the weather with subtle disturbances through next week with temperatures about 4-8F above normal && .DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Saturday) Issued at 1043 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 16z surface analysis had frontal boundary from eastern MT to eastern CO and a trough from eastern CO into northeastern NE. Water vapour loop had upper ridge over the southwest CONUS with a shortwave over north-central WY. Overnight MCS about to fully exit the CWA with leftover low stratus burning off per 0.5km 1-minute visible imagery. Main concern this forecast will be effect of north-central WY shortwave. This afternoon/tonight, shortwave moves into the Dakotas with slight increase in mid-level flow resulting in 30-45kt effective bulk shear later this afternoon. Td/s in the 60s will be sustained per breezy southeast winds ahead of frontal boundary. Band of 2-3KJ/kg MLCAPE forecast this afternoon over far western SD with minimum cap. Convective initiation (CI) will likely be over the Black Hills around 20z with supercells moving south/southeast at 10-20kts per Bunkers storm motion prognostications. Another area of strong/severe CI may develop over northwestern SD along the frontal boundary/trough interaction late this afternoon. CAMs handle this scenario in different fashion with some emphasizing MLCIN east of the Black Hills with some members not so much. Other strong/isolated severe convection may occur over the rest of the CWA. Sufficient buoyancy/bulk shear for marginal/slight (1-2 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms. Large hail/damaging wind the main threats with CIG1 magnitudes over western SD. Temperatures will be a bit below guidance this afternoon per low level moisture/dissipating stratus. Monday, diurnally driven convection possible in the afternoon/evening, but the upper support less certain compared to today. Temperatures will be near guidance. The rest of the forecast will be dominated by the upper ridge over the southwest CONUS. Ridge amplification into the northern Plains for the second half of the week suggests somewhat quieter and drier weather. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued At 545 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Isolated thunderstorms this evening will continue to produce hail, gusty winds, and brief vsby drops to MVFR for a few more hours, especially across the northwestern South Dakota plains, with VFR conditions otherwise dominating. PROB30s have ended at the TAF terminals. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening, with CAMs currently offering the best consensus over the Black Hills (initiation around 19z/1pm) spreading ESE across the I-90 corridor and southern South Dakota plains through evening. A new PROB30 has been added for KRAP. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Helgeson AVIATION...KSmith  215 FXUS64 KBRO 232345 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 645 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 645 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Unseasonably hot and rain-free conditions are expected to continue through this next week. - Moderate (level 2 of 4) to Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk could increase to areas of Extreme (level 4 of 4) Heat Risk throughout the upcoming week. - A combination of dry fuels, low relative humidity, and hot temperatures could lead to elevated fire danger risks over the next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Strong upper-level ridging over West Texas and the Desert Southwest is expected to remain dominant over the next week, keeping conditions hot and dry over Deep South Texas. Temperatures are expected to be unseasonably hot, with high temperatures reaching the triple digits each day. Heat Risk will be a concern too, with Moderate (level 2 of 4) and Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk possibly increasing to Extreme (level 4 of 4) by the weekend. Heat indices are generally expected to be between 105 to 110, though some areas could briefly see higher values exceeding 111 throughout the week. Hot temperatures, dry fuels, and low relative humidities over the next few days will also enhance the potential for fire weather, particularly through the early and middle parts of this week. This could lead to rapid wildfire spread. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Through 00z Tuesday....VFR conditions will prevail through the 00z TAF cycle. Winds will continue out of the south-southeast 5-15 kts through the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Favorable marine conditions are expected throughout the week with low wave heights (1 to 2 feet) and light to moderate southeasterly winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 98 80 98 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 76 102 76 102 / 0 10 0 10 MCALLEN 79 104 79 104 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 104 77 105 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 90 81 90 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 97 78 97 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...23-Evbuoma  251 FXUS64 KEPZ 232346 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 546 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 225 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Above normal temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas through the week ahead. Lowland highs will range upper 90s to 105, which will approach daily records. - Very limited thunderstorm chances in the mountains for today and Monday. Dry elsewhere. - Chances for thunderstorms will improve Thursday into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Another multi-day break in the monsoon is underway. 18Z RAOBS place the subtropical high right in between ABQ and EPZ, with both recording 500mb heights of 5980m. Additional horrid stats from EPZ include a temperature of -4C at 500mb (in the middle of a sharp inversion, and a PWAT of 0.84 inches. Meanwhile, at the surface, dewpoints have mixed out into the mid-30s across much of the lowlands, including LRU, ALM, and DNA. HRRR still holds out hope for a few isolated convective showers with maybe some thunder over the Gila or Sacramento Mountains, and radar shows a few minimal blips west of the Black Range. But coverage will be very minimal. Temperatures should still top out around 101-103 at ELP, with similar temperatures tomorrow. Ensembles suggest we'll peak on Tuesday with a high around 104-106. Record highs for ELP the next few days rise slowly with the forecast, but are still within range. Sun 23 - 103 (2024) // fcst 102 Mon 24 - 102 (1993) // fcst 102 Tue 25 - 104 (2002) // fcst 104 Wed 26 - 106 (2019) // fcst 103 Thu 27 - 103 (2019) // fcst 102 The subtropical ridge will drift east over the next couple of days before slowly retracing its steps, then settling closer to the AZ/NM border by Wednesday. This will allow for northerly flow aloft to develop, bringing weak disturbances and some recycled upper level moisture into the area, increasing the risk of thunderstorms again. Low level moisture will struggle to recover until Thursday, so lowland precip chances will lag the higher terrain. Temperatures will hover near or just above 100 through the rest of the month. Our record for number of days in August with highs 100+ at El Paso currently sits at 20 (set in 2020). We have a shot at beating this record. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 542 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. We currently have some off and on low end gusty winds, but those wind gusts will drop off in the next couple of hours. For the rest of tonight into Monday we will see generally light winds from the southeast. Our ceilings are unlimited this evening and those clear skies will continue tonight and through the day on Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 225 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Hot and dry conditions will persist through the weekend, with very low chances for a pop-up shower or thunderstorm in the Gila and Sacramentos for the remainder of the afternoon and Monday afternoon. Isolated dry lightning strikes are possible. Minimum RH values will drop just below 10 percent in the lowlands the next few afternoons, while the forested high elevations hold onto 15 to 25%. Winds will remain light. An uptick in thunderstorms, mainly in the higher terrain, is expected Wednesday, and another tick higher Thursday, as the upper ridge drifts west of the area again, opening us up to weak disturbances aloft dropping in from the north. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 102 75 104 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 70 99 72 101 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 67 101 70 103 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 72 100 74102 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 60 78 64 79 / 10 10 0 10 Truth or Consequences 72 100 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 64 94 65 96 / 0 10 0 0 Deming 70 102 72 104 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 65 100 66 102 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 75 103 77 105 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 64 102 68 104 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 71 106 73 108 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 68 96 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 73 103 74 107 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 72 101 74 106 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 75 103 76 105 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 68 101 71 103 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 68 104 71 106 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 70 102 76 104 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 67 100 71 102 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 58 91 62 92 / 0 0 0 10 Mescalero 57 89 59 90 / 10 10 0 20 Timberon 55 87 60 88 / 0 0 0 10 Winston 61 91 65 93 / 0 20 0 0 Hillsboro 70 99 74 100 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 68 100 71 102 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 52 92 55 93 / 10 20 10 10 Hurley 65 97 68 99 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 64 101 67 103 / 10 10 0 0 Mule Creek 58 97 60 99 / 10 10 0 0 Faywood 68 97 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 68 101 71 103 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 68 99 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 67 99 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 63 94 66 96 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...15-Brice  176 FXUS64 KEWX 232345 AAA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 645 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 640 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Extreme Heat Warning continues Sunday for the northern Hill Country, Austin area and into the Coastal Plains. - Heat Advisory continues through Wednesday for portions of the Hill Country, I-35 Corridor, and Coastal Plains. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The heat will continue to be the main focus through mid-week as temperatures remain above normal. A strong ridge of high pressure remains centered over the southern Rocky Mountains and this will be the main influencer of our weather pattern. The Extreme Heat Warning for the northern Hill Country, Austin area and southward into the Coastal plains will remain in effect until 7 PM CDT Sunday. A Heat Advisory also continues today for portions of the Hill Country, I-35 Corridor and Coastal plains. Highs are still on track to top out in the 103 to 107 degree range for areas under the Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory. For Monday (through Wednesday), we will continue the current Heat Advisory for portions of the Hill Country, I-35 Corridor, and Coastal Plains. While a few spots may approach 105 degrees (mainly northern Hill Country to near Austin), confidence is not quite high enough to go with another Extreme Heat Warning at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The above mentioned ridge of high pressure will continue to remain the dominant weather feature through much of this week. There are some indications that convection to our north could send a weak outflow boundary southward late Wednesday. Confidence is low, but we will monitor as the boundary may allow a surface focus for convective initiation. In addition, models generally show a decent signal for an increase in mid and upper level cloud cover Wednesday into Thursday as the mid-level flow briefly trends back to a northwesterly direction. Weak disturbances embedded in northwest flow aloft always bear watching and for now we will keep some low rain chances (20-30%) in the forecast Thursday afternoon and evening across the Hill Country into the I-35 corridor from near San Marcos northward. Some low rain chances for the same areas could linger into Friday, but overall confidence in this is rather low. Late in the forecast period, the flow aloft should trend back to a more north to northeasterly direction, which typically does not favor any rainfall chances. Temperatures will remain well above normal through the period and additional heat headlines will be our main concern. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are forecast for all local terminals through Monday night. Southerly winds prevail through the period with speeds around 5 to 10 knots with occasional higher gusts during the daytime hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 79 106 77 105 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 105 77 104 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 103 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 76 103 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 78 105 77 103 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 78 105 77 103 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 74 102 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 104 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 104 77 104 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 103 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 75 104 76 104 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ171>173-192- 193. Heat Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ171>173-192-193. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ187-189-190-204- 219. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ191-205>207- 220>222-224. Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ194-208- 209-223-225. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ194-208-209-223- 225. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...17  350 FXUS61 KPHI 232348 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 748 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Aviation section for the 00Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A drier airmass spreads into the region into tonight. 2. Fair weather is expected to return Monday and should persist into the middle of the upcoming week. 3. More unsettled to end the week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A drier airmass spreads into the region into tonight. In the wake of a cold front that is passing offshore this afternoon, a drier airmass continues to spread into the region with surface dewpoints dropping from the upper 60s to around 70 to the low 60. A few showers have developed late this afternoon, and this activity will diminish into the evening hours. KEY MESSAGE 2...Fair weather is expected to return Monday and should persist into the middle of the upcoming week. More zonal flow with some subtle ridging moves in for the first half of the week. At the surface, high pressure will mainly be in control, resulting in dry and tranquil weather through Wednesday. Temperatures should be seasonable through this stretch. KEY MESSAGE 3...More unsettled to end the week. By Thursday and Friday, high pressure moves offshore with southerly return flow, helping bring dew points back into the low-70s. Broad upper level troughing will allow a surface low to make its way into the region, bringing our next chance for precipitation. Still a bit far out for specifics at this time, however. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...VFR. Winds 5 kts or less favoring a southwest direction. High confidence. Monday...VFR. W to WSW winds around 10 kts gusts up to 15-20 kts. Winds shifting more north of west toward 00Z. High confidence. Outlook... Monday through Wednesday...VFR expected most of the time. Thursday...Showers and thunderstorms likely developing late, otherwise prevailing VFR. && .MARINE... No marine hazards expected. Outlook... Monday night through Wednesday...No marine hazards expected. Fair weather expected. Rip Currents... On Monday, southwest winds will average 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon with breaking waves of 1 to 2 feet. There will be light southerly swells with a period of 6 to 8 seconds. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches. On Tuesday, winds will shift more westerly with similar seas and surf conditions as Monday expected. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJL/MPS/Staarmann AVIATION...MJL/MPS/Staarmann MARINE...MJL/MPS/Staarmann  334 FXUS63 KFSD 232348 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 648 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms should be a bit more widespread tonight (50-70%). Locally heavy rain and isolated severe storms are possible. Coverage and intensity have been trending down a bit however. - Monday evening and night could see an isolated severe storm, with the better chances in central SD and also near highway 14. - Otherwise most days through next week will see highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A pair of waves are affecting the area, or nearby, today. The first is moving southeast through Nebraska and is keeping any instability to the south and west bottled up. Model soundings not hinting at a whole lot of activity this afternoon, with a fairly dry and stable air mass in place. Tonight a second wave will pass by to the north and will swing a little bit of mid level moisture into the area. As this moisture moves in, some weak elevated instability, likely 500-750 J/kg CAPE develops. This will support some scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity, but for now severe weather looks unlikely. A few pockets of heavier rain are also possible, but also trending downward. Monday will see temperatures warm a bit with humidity likely to increase as well. This is in response to strengthening southerly flow as a stronger wave moves east along the Canadian border. This will increase instability, especially to the northwest of the area, and should bring scattered thunderstorms to parts of central SD and near the highway 14 corridor. With the potential for about 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE and decent unidirectional shear, and isolated severe storm will be possible in these locations. One area to watch will be near northwest IA late Monday afternoon and evening where there are some hints the cap could weaken a bit as elevated moisture advection bring some instability to that area. Low confidence, but something to monitor. Northwest flow aloft Tuesday into the weekend will keep seasonally warm temperatures in place with highs in the 80s and lows from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Starting to see a little more consistency on the next better chance for showers and thunderstorms on Friday. The latest Canadian, GEFS and EC ensembles all indicate about a 30-5- percent chance for a tenth of an inch or more of precipitation. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 647 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Scattered showers and storms look to develop late tonight, favoring areas near and south of I-90 through daybreak Monday. Confidence remains fairly low as to whether or not this activity hits KFSD and KSUX or remains just south and west of the sites, but still kept the PROB30 groups with some adjustments to timing, notably a later possible arrival time for KSUX. Winds will generally remain southeasterly through the period while staying moderately breezy. Winds will be sustained around 8-12 kts through the period with occasional gusts to around 20 kts this evening and again during the day Monday. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...Samet  446 FXUS61 KALY 232350 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 750 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into early this evening. A few storms may become severe. 2) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday and Tuesday, especially near and north of I-90. Temperatures will be below normal. 3) Chances of showers and thunderstorms return later this week, along with temperatures warming back to normal. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... An upper level trough over our region will deepen today, with a closed low centered near Georgian Bay. Occluded front steadily progressing eastward across our area this afternoon, which is providing some forcing, along with falling heights aloft for showers and some thunderstorms to continue developing. There remains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms across the entire region today. CAMs and radar trends indicating storm mode to be mainly cells/cluster, with perhaps a few lines developing as shear increases later this afternoon. Breaks of sunshine have allowed for destabilization. SPC Mesoanalysis page indicating SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/Kg and effective shear of 30-35 kt. Environment is conducive for isolated severe storms, with mainly damaging wind gusts and perhaps an instance of large hail if storms can grow tall enough. Convection should dissipate shortly after sunset this evening, as instability wanes and a small-scale low level ridge builds in from the west. KEY MESSAGE 2... The core of an anomalously strong upper level low (500 mb height anomalies of -2 to -3 STDEV) will gradually track east near the far southern Ontario/Quebec border on Mon. A short wave disturbance rotating around the periphery of the upper low core is expected to move across our area. This will result in additional mainly scattered showers and a few T-storms Mon afternoon into early evening. Coverage looks to be most numerous across the Adirondacks, where there will be upslope/lake-effect enhancement with a cold core aloft moving overhead and W-SW flow developing over a very warm Lake Ontario (surface temperatures +20C to 22C). Due to anticipated low-topped convection associated with limited instability < 700 J/Kg, the threat for severe storm is low. However, there is potential for a few storms to produce small hail and/or gusty winds due to steepening lapse rates beneath the cold core aloft. The core of the upper low will track NE across southern Quebec on Tue, as the trailing trough axis moves east across our region. This will result in additional showers developing, although there should be lower coverage compared to Mon except over the W. Adirondacks where lake-effect/upslope enhancement will persist. It will become breezy, with westerly winds gusting 20-25 mph at times in favored areas. Temperatures will remain below normal through Tuesday. KEY MESSAGE 3... Tranquil weather returns on Wed, as the upper level trough finally shifts east and high pressure builds in across the region. Unsettled conditions look to return on Thu, as the next upper level trough approaches from the west. Potential for multiple disturbances and surface fronts make timing details difficult this far out, but there is at least enough confidence to mention likely showers/T-storms developing Thu afternoon/evening. There may end up being a threat for some severe storms depending on timing and sufficient instability/shear. Will continue to monitor trends over the next few days. The broad upper level trough still looks to be in place on Fri, so there will be continued threat for showers/T-storms. Coverage may not be as much as Thu if the main cold front pushes east of the region by Fri morning. Temperatures should warm back to normal levels Wed-Fri as well. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A mixture of VFR/MVFR conditions start the TAF period due to passing rain showers. VFR conditions should continue at KALB through 8z to 11z when patchy fog can develop bringing brief periods of MVFR conditions. For KPSF and KPOU, rain showers can move through the TAF sites through 1z where brief IFR conditions could occur. Then patchy fog could develop between 6z to 11z bringing a fluctuation of IFR/MVFR conditions. For KGFL, VFR conditions continue through 4z when patchy fog can develop bringing IFR/MVFR conditions through 12z. Winds continue to range to between light and variable to west/southwest between 5 and 10 knots through the 12z timeframe. Then, winds increase tomorrow afternoon to the south/southwesterly with gusts ranging between 15 and 20 knots. Outlook... Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...05  535 FXUS61 KCAR 232353 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 753 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 750 pm update...updated for 00z aviation discussion. Increased fog tonight (Sunday night) and Monday night. Increased chances for strong to possibly locally severe thunderstorms across the interior Tuesday afternoon. Increased confidence in strong convection Friday afternoon/evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Areas of dense fog tonight (Sunday night), and possibly again Monday night. Fog will impact travel conditions. 2) Chance of showers persists late this (Sunday) afternoon through Monday afternoon, with possibly thunderstorms in Northern Maine Monday afternoon. 3) Chance of showers and thunderstorms north of Bangor Tuesday and mainly across northern Aroostook Wednesday. 4) Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening, some of which may be locally strong with gusty winds and small hail. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Areas of dense fog tonight (Sunday night), and possibly again Monday night. Fog will impact travel conditions. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Fog is the main concern. Dense fog was present Sunday morning especially near the coast. With the airmass getting even a bit moister, think that tonight will be a repeat performance, except areas further inland will have a better shot at getting the fog. The best chance of the dense fog is near the Downeast coast, but can't rule out significant fog further inland too. The fog should generally dissipate during the day Monday, but fog appears likely again Monday night. There may be a slightly later onset to the fog in the evening Monday compared to this (Sunday) evening, but still think the fog could be locally dense by later Monday night. KEY MESSAGE 2... Chance of showers persists late this (Sunday) afternoon through Monday afternoon, with possibly thunderstorms in Northern Maine Monday afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... As of 2pm Sunday afternoon, lots of clouds and low-level moisture, but not much more than drizzle. There are some heavier showers/storms south of our area that will move north into especially eastern portions of our area and bring another shot of showers later this afternoon into the evening. Can't rule out an embedded storm and some heavier downpours, but nothing remotely strong for thunderstorms, and no flooding, with a few places getting another quarter inch of rain or a bit more. Probably some drying later tonight into Monday morning, but with a bit of clearing, expect enough instability to showers and storms to fire off by about midday. Scattered showers/storms are expected, with the best chance being inland away from the more stable marine layer. That said, even in the wetter north, only going with a 40-60 percent chance of showers/storms, best chance in the western North Woods. Monday won't be a rainout by any means. Can't rule out a couple of the storms being on the stronger side with gusty winds, but this is a pretty minimal threat, and there is some uncertainty how many storms can fire in the first place. KEY MESSAGE 3... Chance of showers and thunderstorms north of Bangor Tuesday and mainly across northern Aroostook Wednesday. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... The axis of an upper level closed low that is gradually weakening as it passes to the north, then northeast Tuesday- Wednesday, should bring with it sufficient instability in the low-mid levels with its associated cold-pool aloft, that is should produce scattered to potentially numerous showers and isolated to scattered showers areawide on Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon, low to mid level lapse rates should be around 8-8.5C/km, with a few hundred J/kg of CAPE and around 35-45 kt of bulk shear. This should produce some strong to locally severe storms across the region north of Bangor. Wet bulb zero heights are around 7500-8500 ft away from the coast so the greatest risk would be small to possibly marginally severe hail. On Wednesday,as the upper low weakens and retreats to the northeast, the threat will be limited to the North, with low level lapse rates around 7.5-8 C/km, around 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE and around 20-30 kt of shear. Once again strong to possibly locally severe storms are possible with mainly isolated storms across northern Aroostook. The wetbulb zero height is a little higher 8500-9000 J/kg, but still low enough to support hail. With the stronger CAPE, the main threat is both strong winds and small to marginally severe hail in the strongest convection across the North on Wednesday. KEY MESSAGE 4... Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening, some of which may be locally strong side with gusty winds and small hail. KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION... A cold front crosses the area Friday afternoon and evening on the leading edge of a full latitude trough pushing into the region, with the added support of a northern stream shortwave pushing through the trough around that time. With the potential for 500-1500 J/kg of CAPE and 25-35KT of bulk shear, there is a risk of some locally strong thunderstorms ahead of the front, with the main threat strong gusty winds. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tonight...Conditions deteriorating to LIFR or lower at all terminals with low clouds and fog. Fairly high confidence in these low conditions. Light winds. Monday...Conditions improving to VFR for most places by 18z, though MVFR/IFR could persist near the coast. Possibly an afternoon storm at northern terminals though not confident enough to include PROB30. S wind 5-15 kts with gusts to near 20kts in the afternoon. Monday Night...Conditions deteriorating to IFR or lower at all terminals. Highest confidence at BHB, BGR and HUL with at least 60 percent confidence in IFR prevailing. Light winds. Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible in any stronger convection north of KBGR. Chance of MVFR or lower early Tuesday morning at all terminals in low ceilings and/or fog. Tuesday night: VFR. Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible in any stronger convection at KFVE/KCAR/KPQI, otherwise VFR. Wednesday night-Thursday night: VFR. LLWS possible Thursday night. Friday: VFR in the morning, then MVFR or lower possible in any showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon. LLWS possible. S winds G15-20KT possible. && .MARINE... Fog over the waters through Monday night. S/SE winds 15 kts or less and seas 2-4 ft. A few storms possible over the waters late this afternoon into early this evening. Sustained winds of 15 kt or less and seas of 4 ft or less are forecast on all waters out to 60NM from Tuesday through Friday. There is a chance for dense fog on the waters Tuesday morning, reducing visibility to less than 1 nm. There is the chance for thunderstorms over the waters late on Friday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TF/PM AVIATION...21/TF/PM  520 FXUS62 KMLB 232352 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 752 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms are forecast this afternoon and evening, highest near and north of the I-4 corridor. Storm hazards include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 55 mph, and quick rainfall accumulations of 1-3" locally. - Below normal rain and storm chances start off the work-week as high pressure lifts northward across the Florida peninsula, with a return of near normal rain and storm chances from Wednesday onward as moisture increases. - Near to slightly above normal temperatures persist this week, but humidity will still produce peak heat indices of 100F and greater. Adequate hydration and breaks in the shade or A/C will be important for those spending extended periods of time outdoors! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Current-Tonight...Temperatures max out in the L90s (few M90s) this afternoon with peak heat indices continuing above 100F, but remaining below Heat Advisory criteria. Residents and visitors are strongly encouraged to practice heat safety to avoid developing heat illness. Mid-level troughing across central FL will aid SCT-NMRS (40- 60%) diurnal shower/lightning storm development this afternoon and evening. Highest chances across the I-4 corridor where moisture is deepest. WRLY flow will only permit ECSB development from near the Cape southward and this feature may enhance pulse strong storms across the Space & Treasure coasts later. Drier air aloft may support local strong wind gusts in a few storms with other storm impacts remaining frequent lightning strikes, and torrential downpours leading to quick 1-3" rainfall totals for some. Minor/nuisance flooding possible locally. Storm motion is light westerly but could see occasional erratic storm movement from stronger boundary collisions. Activity will wind down through the mid-late evening across land with cloud-cover thinning overnight. Min temperatures fall into the M70s. Mon-Tue...Upper-level troughing across the eastern CONUS slowly lifts north/east, though weak troughing in the mid-levels will still provide daily enhancement to diurnal (albeit below normal) shower and lightning storm chances across ECFL. At the surface, weak surface ridging lifts north back into the central FL peninsula as the pgrad remains fairly weak. This will result in light southerly flow, allowing for earlier development and further inland movement of the ECSB than recent days. Precip chances will range b/n 20-40% on Mon and 30-50% Tue. Storm hazards continue to be frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts 45-55 mph locally, and heavy downpours. Weak storm steering flow will lead to slow and erratic storm motion, which may increase the potential for minor, localized flooding. Some storm activity may still push offshore through the late evening hours with mostly dry conditions across land overnight. Additional showers/storms possible overnight across the local Atlantic waters. Temperatures are forecast to remain slightly above normal each afternoon, with highs near and north of the I-4 corridor reaching the M90s and L90s most everywhere else. Peak heat indices are forecast to range between 102F to 107F, generally just below Heat Advisory criteria. Those spending extended periods of time outdoors will need to remain adequately hydrated and take breaks in the shade or A/C to prevent heat-related illness. Low temps continue in the M70s. Wed-Sun...Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Modified...Broad mid- level ridging across the Atlantic will extend towards and gradually across the Florida peninsula from the middle of this week into the weekend. The surface ridge axis is forecast to stay draped across the Florida peninsula, with light southerly winds prevailing through Fri, becoming more southeasterly next weekend as the ridge axis lifts slightly northward. Daily development of the east coast sea breeze is anticipated, and when combined with the moist air mass in place, will support a near normal/slightly above normal (40-70%) diurnal pattern of shower and storm development each day. Primary storm impacts remain lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy downpours leading to occasional minor/nuisance flooding. General model trends favor activity diminishing into the late evening and overnight hours. Temperatures will remain near normal in the L90s during the afternoon hours, falling into the M70s during the overnight hours. Peak heat indices are anticipated to remain below advisory criteria but will still exceed 100F, so heat safety will continue to be important through the remainder of the week. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Previous Marine Discussion Modified...Generally favorable boating conditions persist across the local waters through this week. The Atlantic surface high lifts north across the waters starting Mon, causing the southwesterly winds to become more southerly. Light offshore winds 5 to 10 knots during the overnight and morning hours increase to 10 to 15 knots and shift to out of the southeast during the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops each day. Seas remain generally between 1 to 3 ft, with the highest seas focused across the offshore waters. Isolated to scattered shower and lightning storm development will be forecast, with activity generally moving offshore from the peninsula each afternoon into the evening hours. Continued shower/storm development overnight across the Gulf Stream waters will be possible. Storm hazards will include frequent cloud-to-water lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 30 kts, heavy downpours, and locally higher seas. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 746 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Gusty winds from TS outflow and -SHRA continue to impact KVRB- KSUA through 01Z, otherwise quiet VFR at ECFL terminals tonight. Winds become light southerly/VRB overnight and forecast to continue Monday, allowing the ECSB to develop and move inland at a more typical rate, shifting winds SSE-SE around 10 kts. Some uncertainty in convective evolution Monday, but lower coverage of afternoon TS/SH is forecast as drier air inhibits developed. Another early start is possible, and have trended VC timing closer to the early side of guidance envelopes. PROB30s/TEMPOs may be needed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 93 75 92 / 10 20 10 50 MCO 76 95 76 95 / 10 30 10 40 MLB 76 93 77 93 / 20 20 10 40 VRB 75 93 75 92 / 20 20 10 30 LEE 75 93 76 92 / 0 20 10 40 SFB 75 94 75 93 / 10 30 10 40 ORL 76 94 77 94 / 10 30 10 40 FPR 75 93 75 92 / 20 20 10 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sedlock AVIATION...Haley  527 FXUS64 KBMX 232352 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 652 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 631 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026 - Heat: Minor to moderate heat risk will continue through this week. Heat indices are forecast to remain below 105 degrees. - Storms: There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across southern portions of Alabama both this afternoon and evening and again for Monday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1242 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper level trough lifting across the northeast as an upper level ridge expands out to our west. At the surface, a cold front can be analyzed draped across the southern half of the state. This boundary is likely to linger close to the northern Gulf coast for the next couple of days. Meanwhile, a few impulses will rotate through the northwest flow aloft, helping to trigger a few bouts of convection, generally during the afternoon and evening hours. Greatest chances for convection through mid week will be to the south of the boundary as a moisture convergence axis becomes established. Drier air filtering in across our northern areas will help keep rain chances at bay. To the south of the front, ample instability, high DCAPE and mid-level dry air will continue to promote a risk for damaging wind gusts with any storm. Therefore, SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe storms across the southern half of the state through Tuesday. By mid week, another upper trough deepens across the Great Lakes region while sending a cold front into Central Alabama sometime Thursday into Friday. As a result, we will see low to moderate (30-60%) chances for showers and storms at times through the work week. High temperatures this weekend will settle into the low to mid 90s for most. Drier air will help keep heat indices in check, generally 95-102 degrees. Increasing rain chances and cloud cover next week will help trim off a few degrees with highs in the upper 80s at times. Continued humid conditions will warrant a moderate heat risk for most through the next week. 95/Castillo && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026 VFR conditions are expected outside of any convection. Only a few showers and thunderstorms remain on radar. Only confident enough for a PROB30 mention for MGM through 3z ATTM, but will keep a close eye on the rest. Best chances for convection on Monday will be across the south and west portions of C AL with our surface boundary situated from NW to SE across the southern third of AL. Thus, only confident enough for mentions at TCL/MGM during the day as they will be closer to the boundary. Outside of storms, winds should be light/variable tonight and WNW-NW 4-8kts with mixing on Monday. Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air may be slow to vacate the area with one more day possible for lower minimum relative humidity values (35 to 45%) for most locations on Monday. However, wind speeds are expected to remain light, which should negate any significant fire weather concerns. Moisture gradually begins as we head into midweek. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 66 91 66 92 / 10 0 0 10 Anniston 66 90 66 91 / 10 10 0 0 Birmingham 70 92 70 92 / 10 20 10 10 Tuscaloosa 72 95 72 94 / 10 30 20 20 Calera 70 93 70 92 / 20 30 10 10 Auburn 72 91 71 90 / 20 20 10 0 Montgomery 73 95 72 95 / 20 30 20 10 Troy 72 95 70 93 / 20 30 20 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95/Castillo AVIATION...08  624 FXUS63 KGLD 232355 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 555 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another chance for storms this evening and Monday afternoon. 1 inch hail and 65 MPH winds are the primary threats. There is a low chance that a supercell may form and produce hail around 2 inches and/or a wind gust up to 75 mph. - Better chance for severe weather on Tuesday, with all hazards possible. - Above normal temperatures through at least mid week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1104 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Thru Tuesday, there is not much change to the overall pattern. An upper ridge remains forecast to be anchored over the southwest and Southern Plains, with upper troughing over the Eastern U.S. This is generally going to keep the area under northwest flow aloft. The only change in the upper pattern is that another trough is forecast to move around the ridge the next few days. This will help supply some chances for storms, especially on Tuesday. Near the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast to move into the area today, then slowly push a bit to the southeast of the area Monday and Tuesday. This is leading to breezy winds for today with winds from the south at 15-20 mph with gusts in the 25-40 mph range. Winds should be lighter the next few days around 10-15 mph as the low is forecast to broaden out a bit. For temperatures, highs are forecast to be in the 90s each day with mid to upper 90s possible tomorrow when the upper ridge is most amplified over the area. Lows should generally be in the 60s, with maybe a few 70s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. In regards to storms, the overall progression and timing will be similar through Tuesday. Storms are forecast to develop west of the area during the afternoon and late afternoon hours each day. The storms would then likely enter the area around 5-8pm MT and try and push east through the area. The main peak in storm intensity would generally be between 5-10pm MT, with severe weather possible mainly in the form of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storm activity could persist through the night each day, but would mostly likely end by 1-4am CT. The storms this evening are forecast to be on the marginal side with an environment that is capped, has effective shear around 20-30 kts, and 1500-2500 J/kg. While supportive of storm activity, most storms will likely pulse up and down with not much to show for it. Still, they may be able to produce 1 inch hail and a few wind gusts around 60 mph. There is, about a 15% chance that supercell is able to form, especially if the environment modifies to have the higher end of the shear and instability values. In this case, be alert for large hail potentially reaching around 2 inches and wind gusts around 70-80 mph. The severe threat looks to largely be confined to counties along the Colorado border, with increasingly stable air to the east and the upstream upper trough lifting more to the north and weakening its influence in the area as the evening goes on. Tomorrow, the shear is forecast to remain around 20-30 kts while the instability and lapse rates are forecast to be a bit lower compared to today. The lesser instability is from the forecast calling for dewpoints to drop into the 50s and low 60s across most of the area. If this happens along the with upper trough sliding along the Northern Plains, the storms would probably move into the area a few hours later (likely closer to 7-9pm MT). They would also be less likely to be severe, though one or two could still produce wind gusts around 60 mph and maybe some hail close to an inch in size. The main concern for this would be if a cluster develops in Western Nebraska and pushes south into the area. Tuesday, dewpoints are forecast to recover with most of the area in the 60s. With instability forecast to be closer to 3000 J/kg, 0-6km shear around 40 kts,and the upper trough moving through the Plains in the northwest flow, Tuesday may have the most support for storm development and strength. The main question seems to be how quickly storms cluster and do they form in the area. If the storms form in the area and/or stay isolated, the risk for large hail above 2 inches increases. Otherwise, the threat for wind gusts around 70 mph would be greater. Strong winds and large hail would be possible either way, but it will be hard for either hazard to reach its full potential without storms being in a certain mode. Another sneaky hazard is the potential for a tornado or two. While the environment isn't very supportive of tornadoes, supercells may be able to briefly produce one. The bigger tornado concern is if a line forms like some guidance is suggesting and sweeps through the area from northwest to southeast. With 0-3km shear vectors forecast to be from the south/southeast at 15-25 mph, a QLCS tornado or two may occur. There is a foil for this in that storms that develop ahead of the main clusters and lines may cause them to become disorganized and fall apart. With this, currently keeping the threat for tornadoes on the lower side, with the greater concern and emphasis on wind and hail. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1244 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Synoptically, the ridge to the west is forecast to mainly remain stationary over the Four Corners region, keeping us in northwesterly flow throughout the period. Guidance indicates the ridge may begin to amplify on Wednesday, and begin to de-amplify come Friday as a trough moves through the US/Canadian Border. Shortwaves are expected to move through the area during the week and into the weekend, increasing precipitation chances. High temperatures for the period will generally remain in the 90s. Wednesday appears to be the "coolest" day, with highs ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s. Saturday is forecast to be the warmest, with highs in the upper 90s and the potential for a few locations to reach the low 100s. If the ridge begins to move eastward, then higher than forecasted temperatures could be seen. Winds are expected to remain calm to breezy throughout the period. Precipitation chances are present throughout the period. Wednesday and Thursday hold the highest potential, with PoPs in the 20-50% range, as shortwaves move through the area during the afternoon and evening hours. While instability and shear parameters appear sufficient for severe storms, model guidance suggests some variability in CAPE and shear values, which could lead to less organized storms and reduced severe chances. Precipitation chances then begins to taper off to 5-25% for Friday through Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 552 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are favored to persist at both KGLD and KMCK through the forecast period. There are two surface lows, one in the Northern High Plains, and another in the Oklahoma Panhandle, which are creating thunderstorms across the Colorado Front Range moving east. This may become a concern for KGLD by around 03z, though confidence is not high enough to say that thunderstorms will reach the airport as CAM guidance suggests that most storms will dissipate by the time they reach the KS-CO Border. Thunderstorms are not currently expected to impact KMCK. In addition, for KGLD, winds are primarily expected to remain below 12 kts, but gradually rotate clockwise through the duration of the TAF period as a boundary passes through the area. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...Holdren AVIATION...Davis  583 FXUS63 KJKL 232354 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 754 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Noticeably less humid air will continue to prevail early this week, with below normal morning lows. - Temperatures and humidity will increase Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the next cold front, leading to a potential for thunderstorms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 754 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Have made minor adjustments in the sky forecast for a patch of cirrus streaming through this evening, and for temps for an initial quick drop in eastern valley readings early this evening. The update has little impact on the night as a whole. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 419 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Largely stacked low pressure just north of the Great Lakes late today will weaken and lift northeast through Monday night. Meanwhile, surface high pressure currently over the mid Mississippi Valley will drift to the Ohio Valley. As this happens, our current inflow of cooler and drier low level air around the high will ease and our upper level flow upstream will flatten. Even though cool/dry advection will taper off, air mass modification will hold off during the short term, which will afford us below normal lows both nights. The flattening upper level flow may allow some high clouds to spill through upstream ridging Monday night, but any clouds in our skies shouldn't have much impact on our temperatures. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 323 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 The long term period begins Tuesday with a subtropical ridge and closed 500 mb high ranging from 594-597 dm centered over the Four Corners region. Elsewhere, an upper-level trough is modeled across the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and New England. Across eastern Kentucky, Tuesday will be fair and quiet with dew points in the 50s, and temperatures in the mid 80s feeling a bit less humid compared to previous days. Overnight, light winds and clear skies may aid in patchy valley fog developing in typical favored river valley locations. With valleys possibly decoupling at night, temperatures in the valleys may cool into the mid to upper 50s, while ridgetops cool into the upper 50s to low 60s, Tuesday night. An upper low modeled over southern Manitoba will progress southeast overnight, ending up in the Upper Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. A surface low will also form in the Great Lakes vicinity. Some high and mid-level clouds may work into the area through Wednesday in advance of the approaching system. By Wednesday evening, as a surface cold front extends from the Great Lakes southwestward through the Ohio Valley and Ozarks, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Wednesday night into Thursday, peaking Thursday ahead of the frontal passage. By Friday, the cold front is expected to have passed east of the Commonwealth, with the trough axis shifting east of the forecast area Friday into Saturday, leaving broad troughing across the eastern US. Lingering moisture along the departing trough may support isolated shower and storm chances Friday afternoon along the VA/KY border. Model and ensemble agreement is poor by next weekend. However, deterministic guidance diverges, with one scenario depicting a shortwave progressing through the Central Plains into portions of the Mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys by Saturday evening into Sunday, which would lead to another round of showers and storms across the area on Sunday. Conversely, an alternate scenario tracks the shortwave farther north into the Ohio Valley. NBM has maintained low-end isolated PoPs for Sunday (15-20%) to reflect this low-confidence scenario. Temperatures should remain slightly above normal for this time of year, in the mid to upper 80s.The CPC 6-10 day outlook supports this thinking. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Valley fog will develop spread overnight and early Monday. It will bring localized IFR or worse conditions, probably affecting KLOZ and KSME TAF sites around dawn. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...HAL  744 FXUS61 KRLX 232357 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 757 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update. A few showers will skirt across northern WV though late tonight. 18Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update. Little to no modifications were necessary to the forecast this afternoon. General thunder risk across the northern CWA has since been erased from the Day 1 outlook, yielding a clean eight day thunderstorm outlook risk for the Central Appalachians. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A stretch of dry weather settles into the region alongside a brief cool down in temperatures. 2) Weather pattern shifts back into an unsettled state for the second half of the week amid passing disturbances. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Chamber of Commerce weather rounds out the weekend under the guise of building high pressure. Some afternoon cumulus fields have sprouted overhead today, but is not expected to form into showers or storms within our forecast area. A similar forecast sets up for the next several days while the surface high remains nestled over the region, allowing for a welcome reprieve from the unsettled weather pattern we found ourselves in so far this month. Cool temperatures and low humidity yields daytime highs spanning the 60s to low 80s, elevation dependent, and overnight lows tumbling down into the 40s and 50s. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will then become nudged offshore after midweek as upper level troughing swings into the Ohio Valley. Embedded shortwaves will promote periods of showers and storms for Thursday onward. We could also see influence from a disturbance churning off the eastern seaboard later on in the week. Whether an uptick in the risk for severe weather returning to the area with these waves remains uncertain this far out in the forecast. Soil recovery that is anticipated to take place during the first half of the week should aid in limiting any initial flooding concerns. Heavy downpours and training storms will be closely monitored, however, for localized issues heading into next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A few showers will skirt across northern WV though late tonight. This, and stratocumulus, all associated with an upper level disturbance, is likely to hinder fog formation overnight tonight, even farther south. Have dense fog briefly forming after a shower toward daybreak Monday at EKN but a similar scenario may pan out at CKB and hour or so earlier. Have brief MVFR mist before dawn at PKB and CRW. Any morning fog and stratocumulus will give way to a cumulus field the balance of the day Monday as high pressure builds into the area. Light west to variable surface flow tonight will become west to northwest on Monday, just a bit gusty at CKB and EKN. Light west flow aloft tonight will become west to northwest on Monday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A shower may also bring brief MVFR conditions to PKB tonight and CKB overnight and, conversely, may not occur at EKN. This would then increase the chance for lower visibility in fog between the time of the rain and daybreak. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... IFR to VLIFR conditions in dense river valley fog overnight Monday night and early Tuesday morning, and IFR conditions in river valley fog in and near the mountains overnight Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...TRM  694 FXUS63 KDTX 232356 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 756 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy and cooler conditions arrive today with scattered showers into tonight. - Dry weather Monday into Tuesday with a warming trend. The next chance of showers and storms is possible late Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... Scattered showers should conclude by 00Z at TAF sites on the backside of the trough. Cold northwest flow is expected to support scattered low/mid clouds through tonight, but should remain predominately VFR ceilings. Winds will continue out of the northwest this evening with gusts decreasing back towards 10 knots or below. Subtle shift towards the westerly direction late tonight will turn back towards the NW for tomorrow afternoon as gusts pick back up to around 25 knots. Ceilings hold to around 4-5kft during the morning and afternoon peak heating period. D21/DTW Convection... No thunderstorms expected tonight or tomorrow. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Moderate for ceiling 5000 feet or less tonight and tomorrow. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 DISCUSSION... Stacked low pressure system spinning just to our east over southern Ontario will lift northeast into Quebec overnight. We're dealing with cold advection on the backside of the low today with a strong mid level wave passing over this afternoon before the low finally departs. Atmosphere utilizing the low level moisture one last time this afternoon with a round of scattered showers before ridging pushes in and dries out the mid levels ending precip chances later this evening. SPC Mesoanalysis shows around 250 J/kg of CAPE mainly in the Thumb with a band of low level convergence stretching from MBS to PHN. This has been enough to generate some showers in the area. Weak mid level lapse rates and little instability should help minimize much of any lightning. Cool night in store as dewpoints have already fallen to around 50 and even the mid 40s across northern MI. Once the diurnal clouds mix out we should clear out for the most part. Questionable area will be the eastern Thumb where the cloud shield from the upper low continues to reach back toward the area. Clouds would help hold those temps up a few degrees if the clouds never release. Surface high builds in tonight for Monday and Tuesday while upper level heights also inch upwards. We'll keep the northwesterly flow Monday helping to hold highs temps on the cool side again in the mid 70s, but the ridge axis passes on Tuesday allowing for some warmer return flow to get us back up toward 80. Next trough affect the region mid week with a warm front pushing north of the area Tuesday evening tied to a low passing through the northern Great Lakes. Upper level waves start ejecting out of the trough over the region Wednesday leading to increasing chances of rainfall before the main trough axis and cold front sweep through early Thursday. MARINE... Post-frontal breezy northwest flow will persist through tomorrow as cooler air is ushered into the Great Lakes. Wind gusts ranging between 20 to 30 knots are expected during this window, along with some isolated gust potential to 35 knots through this evening, focused mainly across north-central and central Lake Huron. Given the lower confidence for any longer duration gale potential, will continue to preclude any issuance of gale products. Increasing coverage of rain showers will be likely tonight into tomorrow morning across Lake Huron, including a very low chance for waterspouts along any convergence axis. High pressure will then begin building into the Great Lakes Monday evening, centering over the region by Tuesday. This will diminish wind speeds tomorrownight, leading to light winds by Tuesday. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday afternoon for MIZ049. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for LHZ421-441>443. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for LHZ422. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....AA DISCUSSION...DRK MARINE.......AM You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  740 FXUS65 KBOU 232357 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 557 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms through Thursday. A risk of a couple severe storms each day especially Tuesday and Wednesday. - Slightly cooler with near normal temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday. - Gradual drying and hotter temperatures by the end of the week and through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/... Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The flow aloft will be mainly WNW this aftn thru tonight with PW values 100 to 150 percent above normal. Don't really see anything aloft to enhance tstm development, so will see another round of sct showers and storms across the CWA. Overall, expect mostly outflow dominant storms with gusty winds and possibly some marginal large hail over the plains. DCAPE values are mainly at or below 1000 j/kg but a few storms may still produce brief wind gusts from 55 to 65 mph. On Mon, the flow aloft will remain WNW with some decrease in moisture as PW values drop to 100 to 125 percent above normal. As a result, may see less activity Mon aftn and evening. DCAPE values are fcst to rise to 1000 to 1500 j/kg, so there will be some potential for gusty outflow winds from the activity. Highs will be in the upper 80's to mid 90's. For Tue, the flow aloft will be slightly stronger from the WNW as a weak cool front moves into nern CO. As a result, will see temperatures drop back to more seasonal levels with an increase in low level moisture across nern CO. Will see a better chc of showers and tstms across the higher terrain by aftn. Across the plains, initial tstm development may focus over the Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide by mid to late aftn and then track across the plains by Tue evening. MLCAPE will range from 1000-1500 j/kg with favorable shear. Thus would expect a few svr storms across the plains. On Wed, the flow aloft will become more NWLY. MLCAPE will range from 1000-1500 j/kg, across nern CO, with the higher values over the I-25 Corridor. With favorable shear, should see a few svr storms by mid to aftn along portions of the I-25 Corridor which will move across the plains during the early evening hours. Over the higher terrain will see sct showers and storms. Highs on Wed, will stay in the 80's across the plains. Looking ahead to Thu and Fri, the upper level ridge will extend from the srn Rockies into the swrn US. As a result, this will leave the area in WNW flow on Thu becoming more westerly by Fri. Current data shows some decrease in moisture both days, however, still expect sct showers and storms over the higher terrain with widely sct activity across the plains. Highs will be near seasonal levels on Thu and then back to above normal by Fri. By next weekend, the flow aloft will become more WSW. Will still see some influx of monsoon moisture with widely sct showers and tstms possible both days. Highs will remain above normal. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday/... Issued at 556 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 While the main storm/thunder threat has started pushing eastward out of the area, gusty winds from microbursts and outflows are expected to prevail for the next hour or so. There's a lot of uncertainty as to which outflows will dominate and whether or not more showers and isolated storms will develop as the evening wears on. We've extended the TEMPO to 01Z to account for any showers or other outflows that form in the near future off of existing convection. There could be gusty winds and scattered showers through 03Z, though confidence is lower on timing and location. Once any lingering showers/gusts move out of the area, winds should start turning towards drainage and skies should clear up. By around 15Z, winds will turn north and then northeast, following the typical diurnal cycle. Though the CAMs have backed off on tomorrow's convection from what we saw this morning, we still expect to see another round of storms & gusty outflows starting around 22Z and hanging in the area through roughly 01Z, after which winds should start turning east and then south back towards drainage overnight. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RPK AVIATION...AGS  825 FXUS62 KILM 232359 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 759 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for 00Z TAFS. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible especially eastern portions of the forecast area this afternoon, and again during Monday. 2) At or above normal temperatures are expected through the week with the chances for showers and thunderstorms increasing mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible especially eastern portions of the forecast area this afternoon, and again during Monday. Water vapor imagery shows a channeled plume of moisture offshore with the westward extent of this moisture along coastal areas. In addition, a weak front just west of the forecast area is projected to drift toward the coast through tonight and Monday. The higher moisture along the coast along with the sea breeze, slowly approaching front and decent instability will result in a Marginal Risk for severe storms this afternoon, and again tomorrow. The best chances will be near the coastal areas and adjacent inland areas given the PWAT distribution. KEY MESSAGE 2...At or above normal temperatures are expected through the week with the chances for showers and thunderstorms increasing mid to late week. The core of mid/upper ridging will remain across TX/NM/AZ through the week allowing for more normal temperatures across the forecast area. The H5 trough currently in place across the eastern U.S. will gradually become more zonal by mid-week followed by additional weak troughing aloft toward the end of the week. The old front that will linger across the area through the first part of the week is expected to waffle back to the north by the end of week. A weak inland trough along with better support aloft should result in better rainfall chances as the week progresses. In addition, PWATs are expected to surge above 2 inches toward the end of the week. If current trends continue then all signs point to higher rainfall chances Friday into Saturday. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Widespread VFR to start off the 00Z TAF period. There is still the potential for isolated showers or storms this evening, but rain chances are low enough to preclude any rain mention in the TAFs for tonight. The prospects for inland stratus/fog look less promising tonight compared to last night, but there is still low to moderate confidence in restrictions at KFLO/KLBT overnight into early Monday morning. Otherwise, a weak front will move into the vicinity and stall. The front and seabreeze will result in some convection Monday mainly towards the coast, handled by PROB30 groups. Extended Forecast... Mainly VFR with early morning fog and stratus possible each morning. The areal coverage of storms is projected to increase at all terminals from the mid to latter parts of the week. This could lead to restrictions from time to time in/near any of the rounds of convection that develop. && .MARINE... Through Friday... A weak front will move into the coastal plains later later today/tonight with S-SWly flow prevailing across the adjacent waters. This boundary may become nearly stationary along the coast the first part of the week with light/variable conditions near the front and generally light S-SWly to its east and south. Any convection has the potential to create locally higher wind/wave conditions. The old boundary will likely drift back to the north by mid-week with an increase in S-SWly flow that will persist through Friday. Overall, seas will be in the 2-4 ft range offshore, and 1-3 across the coastal waters. However, as mentioned above, locally enhanced winds/seas are expected at times as a result of convection. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...MAS KEY MESSAGES...SRP DISCUSSION...SRP AVIATION...MAS/SRP MARINE...SRP