969 FXUS65 KBYZ 232207 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 407 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening. A few storms could be strong to severe, with strong wind gusts 55-65 mph the main threat. Localized heavy rainfall is also possible. - Drier with seasonal temps next week with just an occasional chance of precipitation. && .UPDATE... Severe Thunderstorm Watches has been issued for south central and southeast MT into this evening. The forecast remains on track. STP && .DISCUSSION... Through Saturday... A filling upper low tracking through the Pac NW will continue to slide east along the US Canada border, working to break down the upper ridge over the region today into Monday. An associated cold front will sweep through the area late this afternoon and evening. Areas generally west of Billings could see a period of elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon as pre-frontal conditions bring westerly wind gusts of 15-30 mph, with humidity down near 20 percent. Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to form out ahead of and with the front, starting over the west early this afternoon, spreading east into the evening hours. CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, 30-40kts of 0-6KM shear, and steep lapse rates should allow a few strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Risk Level 2 of 5 for severe storms over central and western areas, with a marginal risk elsewhere. The main threat with these storms is the potential for wind gusts in excess of 70 mph and hail greater than 1 inch. Brief heavy rain is also possible with thunderstorms. Behind the front, cooler and drier conditions settle into the area for Monday, with temperatures down into the 80s for most locations. Breezy northwest winds of 15-30 mph near the Dakotas border and afternoon humidity down into the upper teens and 20s percent will bring locally elevated fire weather concerns. Upper level ridging then builds in by Tuesday, but weak energy and slightly above normal moisture (PWATs around 110-140% of normal) will allow for periodic chances (10-40% chance) for showers and thunderstorms to continue through the end of the work week. Highs are forecast to range from the middle to upper 80s Monday and Tuesday. A gradual warming trend is then forecast into the second half of the week with temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. STP .AVIATION... 18z Discussion... Winds will remain gusty (up to 25 kts) out of the west for most of the region (including KBIL) through 06z today. The main concern is the development of TS around 20z over the mountains near KLVM and then they push east. TEMPO lines were included in KBIL/KLVM for wind gusts with these storms up to 50 kts, although it is not out of the question to see a gust as high as 60 kts with the strongest storm today. KSHR and SE Montana have less of a likelihood of seeing these storms or impactful winds so they have PROB30 lines for these storms. That is only due to the lower confidence / coverage of the storms as they progress eastwards, if a storm does impact any terminal gusts over 40 kts are possible. Overnight tonight there could be some patchy FG but there is low confidence in this. Even if it were to occur, it will be very localized in the fog prone areas. Mountains will be partially obscured through 08z. VFR conditions are expected outside of convection. Slant range visibility may be see minor impacts due to smoke. WMR && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 095 062/088 060/085 061/090 063/093 064/090 062/089 3/T30/K 00/U 00/B 11/B 41/B 21/U LVM 089 049/086 049/084 051/089 052/090 052/088 050/086 6/T 20/K 02/T 22/T 32/T 41/U 21/U HDN 097 059/088 055/087 056/092 060/095 061/091 059/091 3/T 30/U 00/B 00/U 11/B 21/B 21/U MLS 096 063/086 058/085 056/087 061/093 064/091 061/089 1/U 20/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 21/B 21/B 4BQ 095 064/087 059/086 057/088 062/092 064/091 062/090 2/T 20/U 00/B 00/U 11/B 21/B 21/B BHK 093 060/088 053/085 050/086 053/090 057/091 056/089 2/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 32/T 33/T SHR 092 057/087 054/084 052/088 055/091 057/089 055/088 3/T 30/U 02/T 11/B 11/B 11/B 21/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 620 in effect until 10 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONES 29>33-36-37-57-58-138-139-169-171-173-235. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 617 in effect until 7 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONES 34-40-42-56-63>68-141-170-172-228. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings  468 FXUS63 KAPX 232212 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 612 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy winds and cool temperatures continue Monday with dry weather expected through the first half of the week. - Rain chances return late Wednesday/Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 227 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Impressive late-summer troughing will continue to churn over the Great Lakes tonight as it eventually lifts northeast early this week. The associated surface cyclone centered along the Ontario/Quebec border will weaken with time as the system becomes increasingly vertically stacked, cutting off favorable advections for support. Meanwhile, ridging sliding over the northern Great Plains will help build surface high pressure across the region through the first half of the week. Troughing eventually works back overhead during the second half of the week, likely bringing another system across the Great Lakes in the late Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. Forecast Details: Fall-feeling weather across the area today with breezy winds and cool temperatures will continue into Monday. While afternoon highs will be a few degrees warmer on Monday, readings are still expected to stay in the upper 60s to low 70s for most of the area -- around 5 degrees cooler than late-August averages. Northwest winds between 10- 20 mph with gusts to 25-35 mph will persist this afternoon and continue Monday as well, although slightly less windy conditions are anticipated tomorrow. Isolated to scattered light lake enhanced rain showers today are also expected to draw to a close for most areas later this evening and tonight as an increasingly hostile environment moves in as aforementioned high pressure builds. The exception will be across the far eastern U.P./Lake Huron shoreline tonight into early Monday morning as rain looks to linger on the backside of the system as it exits. Cannot completely rule out a few showers Monday, but the first half of the week is expected to be dry across northern Michigan. Our next chances for rain will return late Wednesday and Thursday as troughing digs back into the Great Lakes. Timing appears to be delayed some from previous forecast cycles, potentially keeping most of Wednesday dry. That said, steadier rain chances appear increasingly likely in the front end of this system late Wednesday/early Thursday with additional rain showers possible through late Thursday on the backside of the departing system. Otherwise, highs will warm back into the upper 70s and low 80s by Tuesday with temperatures set to cool back into the upper 60s and 70s during the second half of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 609 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Band of MVFR producing low clouds and some light showers expected to continue to impact KCIU and KAPN tonight into Monday morning. May also see some of this lower overcast impact KPLN at times tonight into Sunday morning as well. Cigs will only slowly improve at KCIU and KAPN through Monday, with more rapid improvement at KPLN during the morning. VFR conditions the remainder of the taf locations through the period under some passing higher based cumulus at times. Gusty northwest winds will continue. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ016- 018-020-021-024>026-031-098-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for LHZ346. Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Monday for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to midnight EDT Monday night for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342- 344. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for LMZ345-346. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322. && $$ DISCUSSION...DJC AVIATION...MSB  390 FXUS64 KHUN 232211 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 511 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1008 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - There are low to medium chances of thunderstorms for much of next week. However, timing and impact confidence remains low at this time. && .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 No changes from previous forecast for tonight. Under sunny skies, temps have warmed up into the upper 80s at this hour with light north/northwesterly winds. Will see an increase of mid to upper level clouds this evening and tonight, otherwise lows will reach the low to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 1008 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 We will start out the week with an upper level low centered in Quebec, a ridge centered in the southern Rockies but amplified up into the Northern Plains and another upper level low in Saskatchewan. Sfc high pressure will continue to push southeastward into the region and keep an MCS dropping out of the Central Plains on Monday to our west. The TN Valley will have a much needed break from the heat and humidity on Monday as daytime highs reach the upper 80s and dewpoints only in the 50s-60s! On Tuesday, a sfc low in the Southern Plains will help return moisture to the region and lift a warm front northward through the day. Could see a few showers/storms return to the far west portion of the CWA on Tuesday otherwise it will be moreso Tuesday night for everyone. Still stuck in this northwesterly flow pattern, a disturbance will slide into the TN Valley on Wednesday, increasing POPs from low chances (20-40%) during the day to to medium chances (50-60%) by Wednesday night. Daytime highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s on both Tuesday and Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 We will continue to be in a northwest flow regime aloft for most of the long term period. However, by Saturday, this pattern begins to break down as the upper trough to the north/northeast flattens and the upper ridge over the Desert Southwest flattens as well and pushes farther east into the ArkLaTex. A lingering surface boundary will also persist over the Southeast into Thursday before what looks like a reinforcing cold front swings through. By late week and into the first part of next weekend high pressure builds over the Appalachians and Ohio Valley. Overall, highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s will be common through the period. In addition, the above pattern will lead to daily chances of showers and storms from Tuesday through Thursday at least. Expecting lower chances come Friday/Saturday. The best chances look to be during the afternoon and evening hours, during peak heating when storms can take advantage of the greater thermodynamics in place. Ample instability in addition to bulk shear between 20-30 knots, 0-3km lapse rates between 7-8 deg C/km, along with DCAPE around or above 1000 J/kg, will warrant us keeping an eye on the forecast for at least strong to severe downburst potential Wednesday and Thursday. As has been the case recently, the main hazards are likely to be damaging winds, frequent lightning, and perhaps some hail (but freezing levels may be too high). As for heavy rain and flooding concerns, this will need to be monitored as well, since most PWATS are generally between 1.7-2.0 inches Tuesday through Thursday. These values are between the 75th and 90th percentiles when compared to BMX Sounding Climatology, which means that showers and storms will be efficient rainfall producers. Stay weather aware especially if you work outside or have outdoor activities and check back for forecast updates! && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 511 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR flight weather conditions are forecast. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...JMS SHORT TERM....JMS LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...17  823 FXUS63 KIWX 232220 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 620 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy prior to sunset with northwest wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph. - Dangerous swimming conditions through this evening on southern Lake Michigan with a High Swim Risk. - Seasonable temperatures and much lower humidity through Tuesday. - Next opportunity for rain and storms arrives Wednesday afternoon and evening (30-60% chance). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1241 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 We are getting a taste of fall today with clouds, showers, breezy conditions, and cooler temperatures! A low pressure system has departed the Upper Great Lakes region and is currently located over southern Ontario. Isolated lake enhanced showers can be seen on radar this afternoon as the system's attendant mid level trough pivots through northern Indiana. Northwest cyclonic flow and delta Ts of ~14C (water temps ~24C, 10C at 850mb tonight) over Lake Michigan should produce at least a weak lake enhanced response until sunset. In addition to showers, the deepening pressure gradient from the low pressure system off of our northeast will continue to generate gusty northwest winds throughout this afternoon and evening. Northwest winds will be sustained around 10 to 15 mph with gusts as high as 20 to 25 mph through sunset. Breezy conditions and CAA will keep highs only in the low 70s today, about 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Dangerous swimming conditions are ongoing for southeast Lake Michigan beaches and are expected to continue through this evening. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for La Porte and Berrien counties through 11 PM EDT tonight. There is a High Swim Risk today with northwest winds generating 3 to 5 ft waves. Strong rip and structural currents are also expected! If your weekend plans include heading to the beach this afternoon and evening, heed all warnings from lifeguards and stay out of the water! An area of high pressure located over the Midwest with build into the Great Lakes region early in the week. Much lower humidity and several days of seasonable temperatures will make for refreshing early fall-like days. Highs on Monday will be in the mid to upper 70s and highs on Tuesday will be around 80; it will be gradually warmer into midweek as the airmass overhead moderates. Clear skies and light winds overnight mean that several crisp mornings are ahead! Get the pumpkin spice lattes ready as lows Monday and Tuesday morning will only be in the low 50s! Wednesday is a bit warmer and humid with increasing chances for rain and storms. An upper level trough deepens over the Great Lakes and a surface cold front is expected to move through. There are have 30-60% chances for scattered rain and storms Wednesday, with the highest chances along and north of the US 30 corridor. This setup looks to be similar to the past few days where the vorticity maximum is located further north across Michigan so our area misses out on the most widespread rainfall. Instability appears decent but shear and lapse rates may be lacking. We will monitor in the coming days but at this time, severe weather and flooding risks are low. High pressure returns late in the week with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 623 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Pressure gradient between low pressure swirling over Ontario and high pressure over the Ozarks eases this evening allowing for light wind during the overnight hours. Wind gusts return Monday afternoon. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043- 046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Brown  786 FXUS64 KBRO 232219 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 519 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 519 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Unseasonably hot and rain-free conditions are expected to continue through this next week. - Moderate (level 2 of 4) to Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk could increase to areas of Extreme (level 4 of 4) Heat Risk throughout the upcoming week. - A combination of dry fuels, low relative humidity, and hot temperatures could lead to elevated fire danger risks over the next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Strong upper-level ridging over West Texas and the Desert Southwest is expected to remain dominant over the next week, keeping conditions hot and dry over Deep South Texas. Temperatures are expected to be unseasonably hot, with high temperatures reaching the triple digits each day. Heat Risk will be a concern too, with Moderate (level 2 of 4) and Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk possibly increasing to Extreme (level 4 of 4) by the weekend. Heat indices are generally expected to be between 105 to 110, though some areas could briefly see higher values exceeding 111 throughout the week. Hot temperatures, dry fuels, and low relative humidities over the next few days will also enhance the potential for fire weather, particularly through the early and middle parts of this week. This could lead to rapid wildfire spread. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions at all airports with light to moderate southeasterly winds. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 519 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Through 00z Tuesday....VFR conditions will prevail through the 00z TAF cycle. Winds will continue out of the south-southeast 5-15 kts through the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Favorable marine conditions are expected throughout the week with low wave heights (1 to 2 feet) and light to moderate southeasterly winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 98 80 98 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 76 102 76 102 / 0 10 0 10 MCALLEN 79 104 79 104 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 104 77 105 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 90 81 90 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 97 78 97 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...23-Evbuoma  962 FXUS63 KDDC 232223 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 523 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread accumulating rainfall possible on Tuesday. There is a 50 to 60% chance that rainfall totals Tuesday night will be greater than 0.25 inches west of highway 283. - There will be a slight chance for severe thunderstorms late Tuesday with the main hazard being large hail and strong damaging wind gusts. - Hot conditions with highs near 100 degrees in some areas on Monday and Tuesday will give way to cooler temperatures mid week. Highs on Wednesday will be mainly in the lower 90s but there is a 60-75% chance for highs to be less than 90 degrees along the I-70 corridor and around the Garden City area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Earlier this morning, an area of weakening convection was moving across north central Kansas as an upper level disturbance embedded in a 10-15 knot west/northwest flow crosses western Kansas. A 500mb high remains in place across the southwest United States while an upper level trough was located over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface a surface boundary extended from eastern Colorado to the Panhandle of Texas. Models today remain in good agreement and have run to run consistency. These models show minimal movement of the surface boundary over the next 36 hours as the next subtle upper level trough rotates around the 500mb high and approaches western Kansas late today. As this upper level system moves out into the west central high plains late today there will be a chance for scattered afternoon thunderstorms over eastern Colorado and along the surface boundary which will be located near the Oklahoma Panhandle border which, if they develop, will move southeast. A few of the stronger storms early tonight may be capable of producing wind gusts of 50 to near 60 mph. As for the possible thunderstorms that may develop over eastern Colorado late today...they weaken and cross extreme southwest Kansas later tonight. For the first few days of this upcoming work week the 500mb high over the southwest United states will move very slowly westward which will result in placing southwest Kansas on the northeast edge of the upper highs and in a northwest flow regime. Based on this southwest Kansas can look forward to multiple opportunities for scattered thunderstorms as additional upper waves rotate out of the Rockies and into the Plains. As for the storms on Monday...conditions are expected to be similar to those anticipated later tonight as the next upper level trough approaches from the west. Isolated wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph will be the main hazard before sunset across west of highway 83. A better chance for thunderstorms is expected late Tuesday as the next upper level trough moves across the Western High Plains. Latest ensembles continue to show strong consensus on timing and track of this next upper wave. This upper wave will be associated with the right entrance region of an upper level jet as it crosses the Northern Plains. Ahead of this Tuesday upper wave the ensembles indicate now a 50-60% probability of MUCAPE >500j/kg and bulk shear >30 knots over western Kansas along with southeasterly upslope flow of near 70 degree dewpoints. Along with the slight chance for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday there will also be a chance for widespread beneficial rainfall to be possible for some areas of southwest Kansas from this Tuesday night event based on the high PWATS the ensembles forecast across southwest Kansas as storms develop and moves southeast along a moist instability axis. Current PWAT values are forecast to be near 1.5 inches (roughly 80% of normal). In addition to the high PWATS the latest NBM guidance has a 50 to 60% chance that rainfall totals Tuesday night will be greater than 0.25 inches west of highway 283. This upper level trough crossing western Kansas Tuesday night will not only bring a +60% chance for thunderstorms to southwest Kansas Tuesday night but it will also allow a cold front to move into southwest Kansas on Wednesday. This cold front will briefly bring an end to the hot (near 100 degree) temperatures across southwest Kansas Monday and Tuesday. Highs mid week will be more seasonal with highs mainly in the lower 90s. Latest NBM even has a 60-75% chance for highs to be less than 90 degrees along the I-70 corridor and around the Garden City area. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 523 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are forecast for all TAF sites through the TAF period. Winds will start out of the southeast at around 10 KTs before weakening down to light and variable into the period. The only potentially impactful weather is storms west of LBL. In the even most ambitious model runs, precipitation barely reaches the terminal. VCTS was not included as ensembles chances remain below 25%, but there remains the possibility. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Burgert AVIATION...KBJ  388 FXUS66 KPDT 232232 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 332 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above-normal temperatures Monday through Wednesday as an upper-level ridge of high pressure builds overhead then shifts east to the northern Rockies. - Very low chance (5-15%) of showers and thunderstorms for the southern Blue Mountains on Monday, and for the northern Blue Mountains on Tuesday. - Breezy westerly winds Wednesday, with low-medium probability (20-60%) of Red Flag conditions in the Columbia Basin and Cascade gaps. && .DISCUSSION... Water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low exiting the region to the east over southern Canada and the northern Rockies. Meanwhile, a large, upper-level closed low is churning in the Gulf of Alaska, and a somewhat smaller and weaker closed low is located to our west in the eastern Pacific. At the surface, widespread breezy conditions are present beneath dry zonal flow in the wake of the low, with the most notable winds through the Cascade gaps, Columbia Basin, and Blue Mountain foothills. Temperatures are seasonably cool, a few degrees below normal. An upper-level ridge of high pressure is forecast to build overhead tonight into Monday and gradually shift east over the northern Rockies through Wednesday. This will result in warming, mostly dry conditions areawide. Above-normal temperatures are anticipated to peak in the 90s for most areas on Tuesday, with portions of northeast Oregon seeing similar temperatures on Wednesday. Accompanying HeatRisk looks to peak Tuesday/Wednesday with medium-high (50-100%) probability of Moderate (level 2 of 4) HeatRisk for the majority of our population centers. A few areas of the Columbia Basin have low-medium (10-45%) chances of Major (level 3 of 4) HeatRisk. Moderate HeatRisk affects those who are sensitive to heat, especially those without cooling/hydration, while Major HeatRisk affects anyone without cooling/hydration. While mostly dry conditions are forecast Monday through Wednesday, would be remiss for not mentioning the low probabilities (5-15%) of convection each day. Ensemble NWP guidance is in excellent agreement that the aforementioned lows will slowly approach the Pacific Northwest by later Monday, with a weak shortwave embedded in southwest flow aloft passing over northern California and southeast Oregon late afternoon and evening. This will present a low (5-15%) chance of high-based showers and thunderstorms for the far southern Blue Mountains. Any showers and thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing strong, gusty outflow winds. Tuesday, guidance merges the two offshore lows, and wraps a weak shortwave (the remnants of the smaller low) up the Pacific coast. While the wave is not forecast to move inland across our forecast area, weak synoptic-scale forcing coupled modest diurnally induced instability, negative mid-level theta-e lapse rates, and very marginal mid-level moisture indicate some potential for afternoon convection. Best chances (5-15%) are for the northern Blue Mountains, and the rest of far northeast Oregon. By Wednesday, guidance shows yet another shortwave swinging around the parent offshore low, with low (5-15%) chances of convection again over the Blue Mountains. There is higher confidence (20-60%) in overlap of breezy winds and critically low relative humidity in the Columbia Basin and Cascade gaps Wednesday, per NBM probabilities. Thursday through the remainder of the week, anticipating near- normal temperatures and diurnally breezy westerly winds through the Cascade gaps. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Slightly breezy winds continue at PDT/ALW/DLS late this afternoon and early evening, with gusts (20-25kts) tapering off around 7or 8 pm. Elsewhere lighter (under 12 knot) winds at YKM/PSC/RDM/BDN, with VFR at all terminals. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 49 90 54 94 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 55 93 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 53 93 57 96 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 57 91 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 53 92 58 95 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 51 87 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 45 91 49 94 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 49 93 56 97 / 0 0 0 10 GCD 52 95 57 96 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 59 94 64 97 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for WAZ026-522-523. OR...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for ORZ041-044-049-050- 502-503-505>507-509>511. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...71  764 FXUS64 KMAF 232242 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 542 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 541 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Hot temperatures continue through midweek with record heat possible on Monday. - The prolonged period of hot temperatures could result in heat related illnesses. Be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in air conditioning or the shade if possible. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Upper-level high on the order of 597-598 dm has become centered over southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon. This feature will remain firmly planted over our region through Monday and will result in continued hot temperatures and dry conditions with near record heat possible Monday afternoon. High temperatures will range between 103-108 degrees across the western Low Rolling Plains, much of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, Trans Pecos, and areas along the Rio Grande. These readings will be within our Heat Advisory criteria range over portions of southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin, and once again into the western Low Rolling Plains, so we have issued a Heat Advisory product for these locations from noon-8 PM CDT (11 AM - 7 PM MDT) Monday. The August 24th record high temperature at Midland is 103 degrees, which was set in 1936 and there is a good chance we will at least tie, if not break that record (the latest forecast calls for 103-104 degrees in the Midland/Odessa area). Early morning lows may briefly drop into the mid to upper 70s, but a few places may not get below 80. Stay hydrated and keep in the air conditioning or shade if possible. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Upper-level high pressure will remain in place across our region through Tuesday before perhaps retrograding slightly westward over the Desert Southwest by mid to late week. Hot temperatures will persist through Wednesday with highs each day continuing to range between 100-106 over much of the region. The highest readings will impact the northeast Basin/western Low Rolling Plains and locations along the Pecos River Valley and Rio Grande. Overnight lows mostly range in the 70s, except for readings in the 60s over higher elevation areas. Shortwave impulses embedded within the northwest flow aloft on the eastern side of the ridge could bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to portions of the area Wednesday into Thursday, with rain chances up to 30-40% over portions of southeast New Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin by Wednesday evening. Temperatures remain above normal Thursday-Saturday with some locations near or above the century mark. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 541 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in weak return flow, w/a few high clouds. A few high-based cu are anticipated beginning late Monday morning invof KHOB. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 79 106 76 105 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 73 105 75 104 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 76 104 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 75 103 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 70 96 72 97 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 73 104 72 103 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 65 97 64 97 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 78 103 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 78 104 77 102 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 76 106 76 104 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for Andrews-Borden- Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Midland- Mitchell-Scurry-Winkler. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Borden-Howard- Mitchell-Scurry. NM...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Monday for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Southern Lea. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...99  800 FXUS65 KVEF 232243 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 343 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Hotter than normal temperatures will continue through the week. * Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms will linger through Monday for portions of our forecast area. && .DISCUSSION...through Saturday. Persistent ridging across the Desert Southwest will keep temperatures above normal through the week. Monday will be the "coolest" day of the week, with afternoon high temperatures topping out around 2 top 5 degrees above normal. Temperatures across the region will increase on Tuesday and Wednesday as we dry out. Across the Mojave Desert, temperatures will be around 4 to 7 degrees above normal through the second half of the week, with temperatures around 2 to 4 degrees above normal across the southern Great Basin and in the Owens Valley. The long duration of these anomalous temperatures will result in widespread Major-to- Extreme Heat Risk across the Mojave Desert during the latter half of the week with widespread Moderate Heat Risk across the southern Great Basin and Owens Valley. Current radar and satellite imagery show isolated showers and thunderstorms moving southwest to northeast through Mohave County and across the southern Great Basin. Storms will continue to develop on the higher terrain across northwestern Arizona and the southern Great Basin this afternoon, with the potential for isolated convection to pop up in the higher terrain of Clark County an the Mojave Preserve. Gusty outflow winds, localized downpours, and lightning are the main threats with today's storms. Overnight, moisture will increase across our southern and eastern zones. This additional moisture will help to fuel another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms for areas south and east of the I-15 corridor tomorrow. Beyond Monday, dry southwesterly flow aloft will cause moisture to decrease across the region through the end of the week. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Gusty southwesterly winds continue through sunset, after which speeds will fall to less than 10 knots out of the southwest. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop along high terrain in the region, with a low (<10%) chance of erratic outflow winds reaching the terminal. For tomorrow, winds will favor a southeasterly direction under 10 knots in the late morning, shifting to the southwest in the afternoon with gusts over 20 knots possible. Gusty outflow winds from area thunderstorms are possible again tomorrow afternoon, particularly from the southeast. Temperatures exceed 100 degrees until 04Z this evening, then increase to above 100 degrees by 18Z tomorrow. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Gusty southerly winds will weaken after sunset in the Las Vegas Valley, Colorado River Valley, and Owens Valley. At the same time, gusty westerly winds will develop at KDAG. Thunderstorm activity continues to bring the threat of gusty outflow winds through the early evening, along with lightning near the KBIH terminal. Another round of thunderstorms will begin tomorrow afternoon, primarily south and east of Interstate 15. Confidence is low in storms reaching any particular terminal - gusty and erratic outflow winds are a greater concern. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stessman AVIATION...Meltzer For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  837 FXUS62 KMFL 232244 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 644 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 641 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Smoke from wildfires in the area could produce lower visibilities and unhealthy air quality over portions of the Everglades and western suburbs. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop over the interior and east coast metro areas through the early evening hours. An isolated marginally severe storm or two is possible. && .UPDATE... Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across the interior and east coast metro areas along sea breeze boundary collisions as well as additional thunderstorm outflow boundary collisions through early this evening. The atmospheric column remains unstable across the interior and east coast as SB CAPE values range from 4500-5000 J/kg across these areas this afternoon. With DCAPE values ranging between 1000 and 1200 J/kg, this will be supportive of the stronger thunderstorms having the potential to produce wind gusts in excess of 50 mph this afternoon into early this evening. As the evening progresses and diurnal heating begins to wane, shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually diminish across most areas during this time frame. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the upper 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The deep trough draped across the eastern US with low pressure centered over the Great Lakes will remain the primary synoptic feature of interest in the short term. While the axis of this trough will not reach South Florida, an upper level shortwave at the base of the trough could provide some extra forcing for ascent as it advects across the area Sunday night into Monday. However, another Saharan Air Layer (SAL) looks to advect into the area as well during this same time frame. The thickness of this SAL is expected to be much less than the previous one, but it will still impact the weather outlook through Monday. In terms of today's setup, a rinse and repeat situation from yesterday appears to be in store as low level flow remains mostly southerly with perhaps a slight southwesterly component. This will keep the focus of convection towards inland South Florida (at least to start) this afternoon before outflow boundaries interact with the sea breezes and produce some storms closer to the coastal metro areas. An isolated severe thunderstorm or two once again cannot be ruled out in the form of downburst winds that are most likely to occur with a storm formed by converging boundaries or cell mergers. Heading into Sunday night and Monday, the intrusion of the drier SAL air mass will result in both mid-level dry air presence and low- level profiles resembling an inverted-V near the surface. This results in steepened low level lapse rates and the potential for a couple of strong to severe storms to develop if an updraft or two can bust through the cap created by the dust layer. With that said, overall convective coverage is expected to be lower than without the dust since the dry air provides some inhibition to convection. The storms that do form though will have chances to become strong to severe. PWATs will still be over 1.5", so some scattered showers and storms are still likely regardless but just not as widespread as days without a SAL presence. High temperatures for today and tomorrow will continue to be in the low to mid 90s. Maximum heat index values will primarily be in the 100-105F range, but many areas will experience brief periods where indices could be up to the 105-110F range. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 For the middle to end of this coming week, surface and low level high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will begin to expand back over the region and cause winds to shift back to an easterly or east-southeast direction. This easterly to east- southeast regime will produce a pattern that is common in the summertime across South Florida with convection being driven by the sea breeze circulations and being steered towards the Gulf coast areas. At the same time, the weak SAL will dissipate by mid-week and allow for the deeper moisture to be utilized for widespread shower and thunderstorm development. Highest rain chances (60-80%) each day will be across Southwest Florida and this will last through the end of the long term period. There will be a chance for an upper level shortwave to develop and advect across the region late in the week, which could cause convection to become widespread across the entire South Florida forecast area. However, uncertainty remains high in regards to this feature. High temperatures are projected to remain in the low to mid 90s each day. Overnight lows range from the low 70s across the interior and lake regions to the upper 70s and low 80s along the coastal metros. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 641 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Shower and thunderstorm activity over the interior and east coast will gradually diminish as the evening progresses and winds will become light and variable during this time frame. Winds remain light and variable across all terminals overnight before increasing out of the SE after 16z Monday to around 10 kts across the east coast terminals. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the SW after 16z Monday as a Gulf breeze pushes inland. && .MARINE... Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Light to gentle west-southwest winds are expected across the Gulf waters today and into this coming week with southeasterly winds across the Atlantic. Seas will remain at 1-2 feet or less each day across all of the local waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late each day and in the late night hours over the waters, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Wildfire activity is being monitored across the region with the latest fire developing near Krome ave and the Miami-Dade/Broward county line. Smoke from this fire is likely to mostly disperse northwards but variable winds can result in smoke dispersing multiple ways. The main impact to watch for is lowered visibilities, particularly in the late night hours as nocturnal inversions form and can trap smoke near the surface, resulting in smog. Other than ongoing activity and the drought across the region assisting in fire risk, weather conditions are generally not suitable for increasing fire development as relative humidity values remain 50-60% at minimum and winds remain on the lighter side. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 93 79 93 / 20 20 20 30 West Kendall 77 92 76 93 / 20 20 20 40 Opa-Locka 80 93 79 93 / 20 20 10 30 Homestead 78 92 78 92 / 20 20 20 30 Fort Lauderdale 79 92 79 92 / 20 10 10 30 N Ft Lauderdale 80 93 80 93 / 20 20 10 30 Pembroke Pines 80 92 79 92 / 20 20 10 30 West Palm Beach 78 94 78 93 / 10 20 10 30 Boca Raton 79 91 79 91 / 20 10 10 30 Naples 77 92 77 93 / 10 20 20 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC  859 FXUS63 KTOP 232245 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 545 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light showers end by late this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms become more prevalent late tonight though severe weather is not likely. - Warmer for much of the week with periodic chances for more showers and thunderstorms. - Even warmer conditions possible next weekend with heat indices possibly reaching 100 degrees again. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 209 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Surface high pressure centered over western Missouri has allowed for a drier lower troposphere today. Showers and a few thunderstorms moving east out of central portions of Nebraska and Kansas have struggled to maintain themselves and this should be the rule through late afternoon, with very little if any rain accumulation. An advancing shortwave over south-central Canada tonight produces modest low-level warm air advection in eastern Kansas late tonight to support more precipitation. MUCAPE will be greater than today, though still likely less than 1000 J/kg with high storm bases and modest flow to limit effective shear despite northwest flow aloft bringing some veering with height. Gusty winds, most likely sub-severe, should be the main convective concern. Some isolated heavier rainfall can't be ruled out in this regime either with high freezing levels and precipitable water values around 1.8 inches. The most likely location for storms looks to be in east-central Kansas after midnight to around dawn though CAMs are showing some variability. Monday should see clearing conditions and somewhat warmer temperatures. The northwest flow regime stays in place through the bulk of this forecast period, bringing occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms as weak waves traverse the flow. The next best chance looks to be late Tuesday into Tuesday night then again around Friday but confidence is fairly low in when and where any precip will be. Can't rule out any severe weather or locally heavy rain but again nothing stands out for any particular threat at any one time. The pattern flattens a bit this weekend and may serve to bring stronger south to southwest low-level flow for warmer and more uncomfortable conditions. EPS guidance continues to show the stronger positive 850 mb temperature anomalies during this time. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 545 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Lift is expected to increase on the nose of the low level jet late tonight causing elevated showers and storms mainly between 08Z and 15Z. At this time much of the guidance focuses the lift just south of the terminals. So will keep the PROB30 group for now. VFR conditions are forecast to persist unless a shower impacts a terminal with at least some TEMPO MVFR conditions. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Poage AVIATION...Wolters  367 FXUS64 KOUN 232256 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 556 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 220 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Excessive heat continues into early next week. - Strong to severe storms are possible Monday morning across north central Oklahoma and along the I-40 corridor Monday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts are the main hazard. - Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas Monday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Hot and humid conditions are ongoing across Oklahoma and north Texas this afternoon with the most dangerous heat across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon. A few high-based thunderstorms may develop across the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles this afternoon with a chance that the remnants of the activity will move into northwest Oklahoma this evening. For tonight, increasing isentropic ascent/warm air advection associated with the low-level jet will result in showers and thunderstorms developing across Kansas, Missouri, and northeast Oklahoma after midnight. The I-35 corridor in Oklahoma will on the southwest/western periphery of the strongest ascent with the potential for isolated development as far southwest as south central Oklahoma. Strong to low-end severe thunderstorms are possible, especially across north central Oklahoma. Mahale && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A surface low and attendant cold front will advance southeast into Oklahoma on Monday. The location of the cold front/surface low could be impacted by the morning showers and thunderstorms and whether convective outflow, post-frontal clouds, and/or rain advance the effective cold front farther to the south. The cold front will likely be very close to the I-40 corridor with the potential for a sharp north-to-south temperature gradient somewhere in that zone. For example, the most aggressive model with the cold front is the 12Z NAM with abundant post-frontal cloud cover. As a result, it has a high temperature of 96 deg F in Oklahoma City. In contrast, the National Blend of Models (NBM) has 108 deg F with Oklahoma City in the pre-frontal torch ahead of the front. For those who live in north central Oklahoma (i.e., near Ponca City), we have high confidence that you will be on the cooler side of the front. If you live in western north Texas, (i.e., near Wichita Falls, Seymour, Vernon, Knox City, etc.), we have high confidence you will be on the hot side of the front. It is the middle/I-40 corridor where uncertainty is the highest. Given the uncertainty on the exact location of the cold front, we opted to keep the location for the Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory relatively small for tomorrow afternoon. For now, we issued an Extreme Heat Warning across all of western north Texas into parts of southwest Oklahoma. To the north of Extreme Heat Warning, we issued a Heat Advisory for a row or two of counties. These are the locations that we have the highest confidence to meet Heat Advisory and/or Extreme Heat Warning criteria. We may have to expand both products farther north depending on the location of the cold front tomorrow. There is the potential for isolated thunderstorms along the cold front tomorrow afternoon. Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing strong to wind gusts from downbursts given the very hot conditions ahead of the front. With the veered low-level flow and very hot temperatures ahead of the cold front tomorrow, relative humidity values are forecast to fall to around 15 to 20% across southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas. This will result in elevated fire weather conditions to perhaps locally near-critical fire weather conditions (depending on the winds). With the ongoing drought and very dry fuels, the total fire environment (weather + fuels) will be susceptible to at least initial attack fires. Therefore, at the very least, a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) will be needed once again tomorrow. A Red Flag Warning (RFW) could be needed if there is a corridor of higher fire weather conditions. One area that will have to be monitored carefully is near the location of the cold front, where there will be a wind shift and the potential for isolated thunderstorms that would pose a threat for gusty/erratic winds and dry lightning. For Tuesday, there will likely still be a north-to-south temperature gradient with the cold front likely stalling in the area. The hottest temperatures will continue to be across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas with less hot conditions across northern Oklahoma. By Tuesday night, a complex of thunderstorms is expected to approach from the northwest. The remnants of this complex may produce a threat for strong to severe wind gusts across northwest Oklahoma. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 As the second shortwave moves across the area on Wednesday, not out of the question to see a few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms. Latest medium range model runs of both the GFS and ECMWF show the upper ridge drifting further southwest as we go through the second half of the upcoming week. This will allow modest northwest flow to continue through the end of the week and possibly into the weekend with periodic shortwave troughs traversing the Southern Plains and at least some rain chances continue. With this retrogression of the upper ridge, it should allow temperatures to cool from the peak of the heating that will be see earlier in the week. However, it still appears that above normal temperatures will continue. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 556 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are forecast to persist through the period, though low chances for rain/thunder are introduced into the initial hours of Monday morning. The best chance for terminal impact will be at KPNC, though potential is forecast to extend as far south as near the OKC metro area. Otherwise, a front will move southeastward during the day on Monday, settling somewhere near the I-40 corridor by the afternoon and offering varied wind direction by this time. A period of gusty winds is likely in advance of this feature as well. Safe travels! Ungar && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 78 105 77 102 / 10 20 20 10 Hobart OK 80 111 77 106 / 0 20 20 10 Wichita Falls TX 82 111 81 109 / 0 0 10 10 Gage OK 75 100 71 99 / 20 0 20 10 Ponca City OK 72 96 72 96 / 30 10 0 10 Durant OK 79 108 79 107 / 0 10 20 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005-006-009>012- 014>020-023>032-040>042. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ021-022- 033>039-043>048-050>052. Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ033-036- 037-044-045. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ034-035-038- 039-041-046>048-050>052. TX...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090. Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...10 SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...09  506 FXUS64 KCRP 232259 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 559 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 551 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM - Major to Extreme risk of heat-related impacts continue into next week with peak afternoon heat indices around 110 to 115 - Daily elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A high that is located around the Four Corners region, will meander south-southeastwards slightly through the week. This will promote very dry rain free conditions outside of occasional isolated seabreeze convection daily. Heat indices will be up to 113 today once again. This is expected to persist through the week. Therefore we will continue to monitor for short- fused heat related products. We could see heat indices near 115 by midweek. This translates to moderate to predominately major HeatRisk conditions, though some areas of extreme HeatRisk will be possible in the Brush Country. We strongly encourage the practice of heat safety in these conditions. Take frequent breaks and remember to stay hydrated, check those backseats, and avoid long exposure in these temperatures. For more information be sure to check out weather.gov/heatsafety. With the presence of high ERCs and low relative humidity values across inland South Texas, elevated fire weather conditions will be expected today. Due to this a Fire Danger Statement was issued through 10 PM tonight. Though winds are expected to be light, fires will be able to be easily ignited. Late this week, guidance is hinting at the potential for a disturbance to sneak around the eastern periphery of the ridge. This could combine with some returning moisture to provide some relief. We will hold our breath on this possibility due to it being still too far out. In the meantime, stay cool everyone! && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 551 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Continued VFR conditions, with periods of MVFR visibility/ceilings at ALI and VCT from 08Z-12Z so have left TEMPO groups in for this. && .MARINE... Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Light to moderate (BF 2-4) onshore breezes will continue through the period, with occasional fresh (BF 5) breezes possible during the late afternoon/evening hours, especially south of Port Aransas. Seas are expected to remain around 2-3 feet. Rain chances will remain near zero through the middle of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 96 77 96 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 75 102 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 78 105 78 106 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 73 102 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 81 93 81 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 75 105 76 105 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 75 100 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 81 91 81 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ230>234-241>247- 342>344-346-347. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NP/92 AVIATION...LS/77