476 FXUS63 KDVN 231903 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 203 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather and pleasant temperatures and humidity continue into Monday. - Mainly dry this week with 20 to 40 percent chances of showers and storms on Wednesday and again next Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Nice late August weather is expected through Monday with seasonable temperatures and comfortable humidity. Expect lows in the 50s tonight, and then a rebound into the upper 70s/low 80s for Monday. Winds will remain light with high pressure in control. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to continue through the upcoming week. A storm system is forecast to pass to our north and east Tuesday night through Wednesday night with 20 to 30 percent chances of showers and storms. Models show a slight increase in moisture ahead of this storm system. Currently the higher chances of precipitation are across northwest Illinois. Rainfall amounts will be light with generally less than a tenth of an inch expected. High temperatures on Wednesday will be slightly warmer into the lower to mid 80s. After Wednesday night, models show another shortwave topping the western U.S. ridge and flattening the flow aloft to more zonal. This system will begin to impact the area late Friday night into Saturday, bringing more humid conditions and another chance for precipitation. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Continued VFR expected into Monday with high pressure in control leading to mainly clear skies and light winds. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...Cousins/ZU AVIATION...Uttech  545 FXUS63 KICT 231905 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 205 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms are possible tonight through Monday morning with potential for large hail, damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. - Periodic rain chances are possible through next weekend with the main chances in the evenings through the overnight hours. - Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures are expected through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 An upper trough is currently over the eastern CONUS with ridging over much of the Plains and into the southwest US. An upper shortwave trough is sliding across the northwestern US into the Northern Rockies. In our area, scattered showers continue across portions of central KS due to 850-700 mb WAA. This late afternoon into this evening, slight chances for showers and storms will be possible in eastern Kansas as 850 mb WAA continues. Strong to severe storms appear unlikely with this activity due to the lack of instability. As we move into late tonight and the overnight hours, additional storm chances will be possible for areas along and east of I-135 with the best chances in southeast KS as 700 mb WAA continues. Strong to marginally severe storms will be possible with this activity as MUCAPE values are generally around 1000 J/kg with 30-40 kts of effective shear and mid-level lapse rates greater than 7 C/km. The main hazard will likely be large hail but isolated damaging winds cannot be ruled out. PWATs are around 1.7" which is greater than the 75th percentile for this time of year, leading to efficient rainfall with any storm that develops. If numerous storms continue to track over the same area, localized flooding concerns may be possible. Moving into Monday morning, scattered showers and storms may linger from overnight activity in areas along and east of the Flint Hills with this activity expected to shift east by late Monday morning. High temperatures will rise back into the 90s with the warmest readings anticipated in south-central KS. For Monday night, mostly dry conditions are expected before slight rain chances start to increase in northern Kansas, closer to early Tuesday morning as a weak shortwave slides across the region. For Tuesday, high temperatures will once again rise into the low to mid 90s across our area. As we move towards Tuesday night into Wednesday, rain chances will increase as a stronger shortwave moves into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes area, pushing a frontal boundary south into the Central Plains. Showers and storms may be possible along this weak boundary, though timing and coverage are still uncertain with this activity. For Wednesday and beyond, the upper air pattern will generally remain unchanged, keeping the Plains in northwesterly flow aloft. This will allow embedded shortwaves to continue ejecting out into the region, keeping periodic rain chances possible into next weekend. The main rain chances will be in the evenings through the overnight hours each night. For temperatures, highs will remain in the 90s with values around or slight above normal temperatures for this time of year. Lows will be in the upper 60s to around 70 across the area. For next weekend, triple digit heat is possible to return as the upper ridge axis shifts towards the Northern Plains. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 An area of showers continues to slowly move to the east- southeast across central Kansas early this afternoon impacting SLN, RSL, and GBD. These rain showers will slowly dissipate through the afternoon with dry conditions expected this evening along with light easterly winds. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late tonight into Monday morning mainly along and east of a line from ICT to SLN. These storms will be capable of hail, gusty and erratic winds, lightning, as well as heavy rainfall which will reduce visibility. These storms will shift east of the area by late morning with a return of VFR conditions for the remainder of the forecast period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...GC AVIATION...WI  517 FXUS65 KGJT 231904 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 104 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Monsoonal moisture in place will keep scattered shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast today. - Heavier rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding over burn scars and susceptible terrain. - Temperatures near to around 5 degrees above normal are expected through early next week, followed by a gradual warmup to close to 10 degrees above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1232 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Shortwave troughing working across the northern Rockies this afternoon is providing some lift to the monsoonal moisture in place across the region. Convection thus far, has been richest across the San Juans where a concentration of showers and thunderstorms have developed this morning. This activity is expected to continue through the afternoon. Some rain is making its way to the surface, but rainfall remains sporadic. Some heavier showers could pose flash flooding issues this afternoon, as afternoon heating amplifies storms. Shortwave energy will continue to drag across the region into the evening hours, likely keeping a few isolated showers going into the overnight. Showers will lose much of their stamina after sunset, so expecting for more stratiform shower activity during the late evening to overnight hours, winding down before daybreak. While moisture takes a slight downturn on Monday, there will still be ample fuel for another afternoon of mountain showers and thunderstorms. Once again, some showers could pose a threat for flash flooding near burn scars and sensitive slot canyons, arroyos, etc. Above normal moisture sticks around Wednesday and beyond, as the high gradually shifts back into the Desert Southwest. Forcing will be somewhat lacking, with only the occasional shortwave rotating around the periphery of the high. This means that most afternoons will see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms develop over the higher terrain, with occasional periods of focused convection coinciding with a passing wave. So long as surface levels remain saturated, heavy rain and flash flooding will remain concerns, particularly for burn scars, slot canyons, and flashy creeks/dry washes. Additionally, gusty outflow winds and lightning will be daily threats. Temperatures will start around 5 degrees above normal, but will gradually warm through the week under the influence of the high. By the end of the coming workweek, look for highs to be 5-10 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1145 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Shower and thunderstorm activity is ongoing, primarily over the high terrain south of I-70. Coverage of convection will increase during the afternoon and persist through the evening. Primary concerns with this activity is lightning, strong outflow winds, and periods of heavy rainfall resulting in drops to MVFR conditions. A few sites may experience gusts up to about 20 kts outside of shower and storm activity. Winds will become light and variable overnight. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TGJT AVIATION...TGJT  646 FXAK67 PAJK 231907 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 1107 AM AKDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .UPDATE... Updated aviation discussion for 18Z TAF issuance. && .AVIATION.../through 18Z Monday/...A front is passing across the panhandle this morning, bringing conditions from VFR to IFR. Conditions across the northern panhandle have already begun improving as the the low in the gulf moves south. This southern movement of the front has already caused some southern TAF sites to drop to CIGs broken below 1,000ft. Visibilities in the southern panhandle have also dropped due to rain and mist moving into area. Through the day, northern TAF sites are expected to remain VFR with high overcast CIGs, but the southern panhandle is expected to see more of the same reduction of CIGs and VIS. These conditions are expected to be prominent through the time period. -AGP && .PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT ... SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Moderate to heavy rain for Ketchikan, Metlakatla, and Hyder likely for Sunday evening and overnight into Monday. No flooding is expected a this time. - Strongest winds, Sunday into Monday, will be located over the southern panhandle with winds around 25 to 30 kts over Clarence Strait. - Rain rates and winds diminish late Monday into Tuesday. SHORT TERM.../Through Monday/...Moderate to heavy rain returns to the southern panhandle today as a low pressure system moves southeastward across the gulf. This low pressure system is currently located over the west/central gulf bringing it's first front, of many, into the panhandle. As of early this morning light rain has begun for both a few northern and southern areas. As this low continues to move to the southeast, rain rates will begin to increase, especially for southern portions of the panhandle. Specifically the Ketchikan, Annette Island, and Hyder areas are likely to see around 2.5 to 3.5 inches of rain in 24 hours, with isolated areas seeing up to or more than 4 inches. There is even a slight chance for the aforementioned areas to see those higher rates to around 4 inches in 24 hours. Heaviest rain is most likely to fall late this evening into early Monday morning. Rain rates during that time are most likely to be around 0.15 to 0.2 inches per hour with a chance of 0.3 inches per hour falling for some locations. Heaviest rain rates for the south will diminish Monday morning. Rain will then continue with periods of moderate rain through Monday afternoon. Overall rain rates will diminish Monday evening into Tuesday. During this time overall winds will remain on the lighter side. An exception to this includes areas of the southern panhandle near Clarence Strait. Late Sunday, as the main front pushes into the southern panhandle, winds will increase with gusts around 30 to 35 mph for Annette Island and Ketchikan. Most other portions of the panhandle will see winds around 10 to 15 mph or less. Similarly to rain rates, overall winds will diminish Monday morning. LONG TERM...Tuesday a longwave trough will continue shifting southeast toward the west coast of Canada, carrying a weakening surface low with it. Widespread moderate to heavy rain will also break apart from north to south, leaving a short and welcome break Tuesday. Upstream, zonal flow becomes briefly established over the Gulf, with a signal for a shortwave trough digging down from the south- central coast. These features will carry west-northwest onshore flow and some moisture into our area; however, deep moisture will likely shear apart before reaching the Panhandle, limiting heavy rainfall potential into mid week. Anticipate low clouds and more typical rainfall, with the farthest reaches of the northern Panhandle likely enjoying drier conditions. Near the end of next week ensembles show agreement on a larger system moving into the Gulf, bringing increased chances for heavier rain and elevated southeasterly winds along our coast into the weekend. AVIATION...A gradual deterioration in conditions is expected across much of the central and southern panhandle this morning as low pressure and a frontal system advance eastward across the Gulf. The heaviest rainfall will likely occur after about 22Z and through tonight with IFR to low MVFR conditions becoming predominant. We will also see some increase in wind speeds for the southern TAF sites. Farther north, ceilings at PAYA have already dropped to IFR at times in rain showers. However, mainly VFR to MVFR is expected to prevail for the majority of the northeast Gulf coast and northern panhandle as the lower cloudiness and organized rainfall remain farther south. MARINE... Outer Waters: Low pressure will move across the eastern portions of the Gulf through tonight. In advance of it, winds will become mainly southeasterly and gradually increase. We still expect a weak barrier jet to form along the northeast Gulf coast early today and then slowly weaken. By late afternoon and early evening, winds will generally turn more northeasterly. Around Dixon Entrance, we also expect a rather significant increase in wind speeds to around 25-30 kts, with higher gusts. Seas will also build in that area to around 8 feet before subsiding after 15Z Monday as winds decrease. Inner Channels: Although there continue to be a few differences in the model solutions, especially in regard to the timing of the incoming system and frontal passage, it still appears that the most significant increase in winds will affect mainly Sumner Strait southward. Wind gusts to 35 kt are possible in Clarence Strait tonight with seas forecast to build to 8 feet. As the low pressure and front pass later Monday, winds and seas will gradually diminish. Elsewhere across the inner channels, winds are expected to remain generally 10 knots or less into Monday, except for parts of Lynn Canal where winds around 15 knots are possible at times. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036. && $$ SHORT TERM...EAB LONG TERM...AP AVIATION...MJB MARINE...MJB Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  590 FXUS62 KMHX 231906 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 306 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant forecast or messaging changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Localized severe threat for coastal areas remains this afternoon and will linger into Monday. Monday's threat may impact areas farther inland. 2) Reduced thunderstorm risk possible Tuesday and Wednesday, with unsettled weather returning by late week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold front is slowly making its way eastward across NC this hour per satellite and surface observation analysis, forecast to stall along the coast as overall forcing weakens and shifts away from the region. Starting to see some gradual aggravation of cu fields along the immediate coast with enhanced convergence ahead of the frontal boundary and along diurnal sound and sea breezes. Some additional lift is being provided by a weak shortwave pivoting around deep mid-level troughing swirling over the eastern CONUS. Pre-storm environment today appears marginally favorable for strong to severe storms with MLCAPEs climbing to 2500-3000 J/kg and deep layer shear, especially in the vicinity of the boundary layer, of around 30-35 kt. Multi-cell clusters are the favored storm mode today but a few weak supercells are not out of the question. Healthy amount of dry air aloft and forecast DCAPEs of 1000+ J/kg point to damaging winds once again being the main threat, but in supercells some rotating updrafts could support some hail and a low risk of a tornado. The convective risk should primarily be diurnally-driven, but some overnight redevelopment of showers and storms is possible as the front will remain in the area, and elevated instability will remain abundant. Overall moisture is not as deep as the past few days and the overall flooding threat is comparatively lower. Guidance continues to depict a weak surface low lifting NE along the frontal boundary tomorrow (the low may actually subtly pull the boundary farther inland as it progresses). Overall pre-storm environment will be similar to tomorrow, sans a modest uptick in effective shear in the vicinity of the low. This may provide a marginally better environment for supercell development. If the front does get pulled west, the convective risk will also follow suit. The greatest risk of strong to severe thunderstorms remains east of HWY 17 with damaging winds remaining the primary threat, with hail possible in supercells. KEY MESSAGE 2...Guidance still struggling on whether or not the airmass can fully dry out Tuesday and Wednesday as our current frontal boundary may still be stalled nearby. Isolated showers and storms cannot be ruled out but coverage is likely to be far sparser than the past few days. Moisture and instability then begin to rebuild across the Southeast U.S. coastline with the potential for another round of unsettled weather. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High confidence in VFR conditions through today with moderate confidence overnight. Today's main focus is surface cold front moving into the area from the west, then stalling near the coast. Sound and sea breezes will be the main focal point for convective activity, which will pose a low risk (10-20%) for KEWN and KOAJ. Based on satellite trends, PROB30 remains omitted for these terminals. Light winds and clear skies tonight will be present tonight but modestly drier air raises uncertainty on fog and low stratus coverage. At least some isolated coverage appears probable but will hold off on including in TAFs until rainfall footprint and near time moisture trends. Outlook: A front will remain stalled along the coast of the Carolinas through at least Tuesday. The front may get pulled west a bit tomorrow and Tuesday as a couple of lows ride north along it. This would up the TSRA risk some, especially from KOAJ to KEWN. A risk of sub-VFR conditions would accompany any TSRA risk as well. && .MARINE... A cold front approaches area waters this afternoon, stalling across the area over the next couple of days. A couple of weak areas of low pressure are then forecast to lift northeast along the front tonight and tomorrow, favoring periods of thunderstorms in the overnight and early morning. Varying wind directions are expected as the pair of lows move through, but neither low looks all that strong. For the coastal waters, seas of 2-3 ft are expected today through tomorrow. Outlook: Winds will become northeasterly for a brief time on Tuesday before southerly flow returns by the middle of the week, and lasting into the end of the week. Seas should generally hold around 2-3ft through Thursday, then build to 3-5ft late in the week. The risk of thunderstorms may decrease some Tuesday and Wednesday before increasing again later in the week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RM/MS AVIATION...RM/MS MARINE...RM/MS  743 FXUS63 KTOP 231909 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 209 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light showers end by late this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms become more prevalent late tonight though severe weather is not likely. - Warmer for much of the week with periodic chances for more showers and thunderstorms. - Even warmer conditions possible next weekend with heat indices possibly reaching 100 degrees again. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 209 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Surface high pressure centered over western Missouri has allowed for a drier lower troposphere today. Showers and a few thunderstorms moving east out of central portions of Nebraska and Kansas have struggled to maintain themselves and this should be the rule through late afternoon, with very little if any rain accumulation. An advancing shortwave over south-central Canada tonight produces modest low-level warm air advection in eastern Kansas late tonight to support more precipitation. MUCAPE will be greater than today, though still likely less than 1000 J/kg with high storm bases and modest flow to limit effective shear despite northwest flow aloft bringing some veering with height. Gusty winds, most likely sub-severe, should be the main convective concern. Some isolated heavier rainfall can't be ruled out in this regime either with high freezing levels and precipitable water values around 1.8 inches. The most likely location for storms looks to be in east-central Kansas after midnight to around dawn though CAMs are showing some variability. Monday should see clearing conditions and somewhat warmer temperatures. The northwest flow regime stays in place through the bulk of this forecast period, bringing occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms as weak waves traverse the flow. The next best chance looks to be late Tuesday into Tuesday night then again around Friday but confidence is fairly low in when and where any precip will be. Can't rule out any severe weather or locally heavy rain but again nothing stands out for any particular threat at any one time. The pattern flattens a bit this weekend and may serve to bring stronger south to southwest low-level flow for warmer and more uncomfortable conditions. EPS guidance continues to show the stronger positive 850 mb temperature anomalies during this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A few rounds of precipitation are possible, one over the next several hours and another around 10Z. The first should bring little if any impacts with high bases and limited instability for mainly sprinkles at the most. The latter round sees more instability for more impact potential. Confidence is somewhat limited on where and when the greater coverage will be so went with PROB ground at this point. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Poage AVIATION...Poage  116 FXHW60 PHFO 231912 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 912 AM HST Sun Aug 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Locally strong and gusty trade winds will prevail today as Tropical Storm Moke moves westward, several hundred miles south of the islands. Moisture along the northern periphery of Moke will bring wet conditions and a risk of flash flooding on the Big Island through Monday, while less rainfall is expected to impact windward sections from Maui to Kauai over the next couple of days. Trade winds will gradually ease Monday and Tuesday as Moke moves westward away from the area, with drier trade wind weather returning midweek. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE... The forecast remains on track this morning as the center of Tropical Storm Moke is passing several hundred miles south of Hilo. While the heaviest rainfall associated with Moke is confined just south of the coastal waters at this time, showers are increasing on windward Big Island. Rates so far have been relatively light, around one quarter of an inch or less per hour across the Puna and Hilo Districts. Due to the prevailing wind direction, little rainfall has reached the Kau District so far, but as winds in the lower atmosphere veer more easterly to southeasterly this afternoon and tonight, chances for heavy rain and flooding will increase in that area. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 359 AM HST Sun Aug 23 2026 Latest IR satellite loop shows deep convection from Tropical Storm Moke flaring up roughly 200 miles south southeast of Hilo. Low level clouds and moisture on the northern periphery of the cyclone can also be seen racing westward towards Big Island at a steady clip. Radar is picking on these bands and depicts scattered light to embedded moderate shower activity. Radar estimated rain rates remain unimpressive though, mainly below a tenth of an inch an hour. By early afternoon, the high resolution WRF-ARW, WRF-FV3, and namNest model guidance all indicate a rather stark increase in rainfall coverage and intensity along eastern portions of Big Island. It will not take a significant amount of rain to cause flash flooding due to saturated grounds from recent heavy rain from TC Lala. Thus, a Flood Watch will remain in effect for Big Island through Monday afternoon. Rainfall amounts for the event appear in good order, as NHC's track for Tropical Storm Moke barely budged from the previous advisory package. Storm total forecast for windward and southeast Big Island remains at 5 to 10 inches with locally up to 15 inches, 3 to 6 inches for eastern Maui, and generally 1 to 2 inches elsewhere across the island chain. Locally strong trade winds persisted overnight as Hawaii remained sandwiched between low pressure of Tropical Storm Moke south of the state and a 1025 mb surface high to the northeast. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through this evening for portions of Maui, Molokai, Lanai, Kahoolawe, and Big Island. Strongest sustained winds will continue to occur over mountain ridges, gaps and where winds blow downslope off higher terrain. Observed speeds in these areas have generally been sustained 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. Winds across the ridge tops of the Ko'olau and Waianae mountain ranges may near advisory criteria later today as trade wind showers and/or deeper moisture bands from the northern periphery of Moke begin to arrive. Those zones will be left out of the advisory for now, but may have to be included if the stronger winds expand further west. Trade winds across all islands should begin to ease back to moderate by tonight. Tuesday through the end of next week, drier air will move in from the east, and typical trade winds/showers should return. && .AVIATION... Tropical Storm Moke was centered roughly 300 hundred miles south of the Big Island and continued on its west-northwestward track. Rain bands from the tropical storm will impact windward Big Island today, which will bring MVFR and periods of IFR conditions to the area. Trade winds are expected to be moderate to locally strong statewide. Outside of windward Big Island, showers embedded within the trade wind flow will primarily impact windward and mountain areas, bringing periods of MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR will prevail. AIRMET Tango is in effect for low level turbulence downwind of terrain due to the strengthened trade winds. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscurations over windward Big Island and Kauai and may be expanded to other islands today. An AIRMET for IFR conditions over portions of windward Big Island is also a possibility later today. TC SIGMET series XRAY covers Tropical Storm Moke and its convection. && .MARINE... Northeast winds have strengthened across the Hawaiian Island coastal waters, mainly around windward Big Island, as a result of Tropical Storm (TS) Moke passing west across the far southern offshore waters. At 5 AM HST, the center of Moke was located 270 nautical miles south Hilo. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the offshore waters. Intense convection associated with this storm is flaring up north of its center and will impact the southeastern offshore waters generally south of 18N today. An all- water Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect to account for fresh to locally strong trades between surface high pressure located far northeast of the islands and TS Moke. Higher winds and short period wind wave swell generated by TS Moke may push significant sea heights to 10 feet or slightly higher across Big Island windward waters today. East-facing shore surf will build today in response to strengthening trades. Surf along east and south-facing shores will be impacted by a short period east southeast swell generated by TS Moke as well as northeast wind wave swell as a result of these stronger trades. As Moke passes by to the south today and Monday a mounting southeast swell will veer and become south to southwest. This small, short period captured easterly fetch from TS Moke may push Big Island east surf to near advisory levels later today. Surf along most south-facing shores will be slightly below summer norms but still remain somewhat elevated due to a lingering small, long period south southwest swell. A three to four foot, medium to long period south swell is expected to arrive Monday and Tuesday which will maintain these near summertime heights. Small, medium to long period west to north swell originating from Hurricane Lala is passing around north and west-facing coasts today. && .FIRE WEATHER... Trade winds will be locally strong and gusty today. The inversion will steadily weaken and erode as moisture associated with TS Moke moves into the area today. Heavy rain is expected over windward and SE facing slopes of Big Island through Monday, while rainfall will largely be focused over windward slopes elsewhere. over wind-exposed leeward areas, humidity will be slightly elevated, leading to moderate fire weather concerns today. Winds will gradually ease Monday. A typical summertime trade wind pattern will return by Tuesday. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast- Kahoolawe-Kohala-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West- Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-South Haleakala-Windward Haleakala. Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island Summits-Kohala-Kona. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel. && $$ UPDATE...Wroe DISCUSSION...Thomas AVIATION...Munroe MARINE...Blood/Wroe FIRE WEATHER...Thomas/Wroe  125 FXUS61 KLWX 231912 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 312 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes were made to the forecast this afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Slight chance for a shower or storm this afternoon, then dry conditions anticipated through early portions of the week. - 2) Warmer and more humid conditions return mid-week, with thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Slight chance for a shower or storm this afternoon, then dry conditions anticipated through early portions of the week. A closed upper low continues to circulate over the Great Lakes this afternoon, with broader troughing extending outward across most of the eastern CONUS. An associated surface low is located just downstream of the upper low near the Ontario/Quebec border. A cold front attendant to this low has progressed off the Mid-Atlantic coastline, with drier air starting to filter in from the west. Dewpoints have dropped into the 50s and lower 60s behind the front, with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to mid 80s beneath mostly sunny skies. A few fair weather cumulus have developed in response to daytime heating and resultant mixing. Some CAM solutions show a few showers or storms forming over the next few hours, especially to the east of the Blue Ridge, but most locations should remain dry. Any storms that do form will likely be very short- lived. If a deeper storm were to develop, there could be a conditional threat for some small hail, given cooler, drier thermal profiles, minimal CAPE below the freezing level, and straight line hodographs with very little low- level shear, but respectable shear (around 35-40 kts 0-6 km) through the mid- upper levels. Any showers or storms should quickly dissipate with loss of daytime heating this evening. High pressure will continue to slowly build toward the area on Monday and Tuesday, resulting in dry conditions and lower humidity levels. High temperatures will generally be in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with overnight lows in the 50s to lower 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Warmer and more humid conditions return mid- week, with thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday. Heading into Wednesday, dry, pleasant conditions continue into much of the day and afternoon. As an upper level ridge over the midwest begins to flatten in amplitude, southwesterly mid-level winds advect tropical moisture northward into our region. As this tropical air mass moves through our region, humid conditions return through the end of the week. Temperatures rise back into late-August normals with highs in the 80s and 90s Thursday with models depicting a cold front draping north to south across the Mid-Atlantic. As an upper- level low near Hudson Bay pushes this front across our region, chances for showers and thunderstorms return and could linger into the weekend. Best chances for stronger storms are Thursday and Friday depending on the timing of a short wave deepening an upper- level low over Ontario Canada. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Prevailing VFR conditions and westerly winds are expected at the terminals through Tuesday. A stray shower or storm can't be ruled out this afternoon into this evening, but chances are too low to mention in any of the TAFs. Light to gentle winds turn southerly Wednesday afternoon. Initial VFR conditions could deteriorate as showers and thunderstorms potentially move in Wednesday night. Additional showers and storms may be possible on Thursday with continued southerly winds. && .MARINE... West to northwesterly winds are forecast over the waters today through Tuesday as high pressure gradually approaches from the Ohio Valley. A few sporadic gusts could near low-end SCA levels this afternoon. Winds shift southerly by Wednesday, with winds gusting above SCA thresholds later that evening in a classic southerly channeling event ahead of an approaching cold front. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tidal anomalies are expected to decrease over the course of the day today in westerly flow. Annapolis may reach Action Stage around high tide, but no tidal flooding is anticipated. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KJP/KVH AVIATION...KJP/KVH MARINE...KJP/KVH  162 FXUS65 KLKN 231913 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1213 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Subtropical moisture will help to fuel afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the middle of next week * Some showers and thunderstorms could produce brief moderate to heavy rain with the main threat of debris flows on recently burned areas * Cooling trend continues today as mid-level moisture and increasing cloud cover continues its northward trajectory && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Sunday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Monsoon activity continues this afternoon as the upper ridge near the four corners keeps bringing in moisture from the south into Nevada. Chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (20-50%) across central Nevada along the US-50 corridor and into northeastern Nevada. Humboldt County expected to remain dry. Storms are expected to be wet, but as storm motions increase today, storms will become a mix of wet and dry. Monday, models still show a 20-50% chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms and will be more across northern Nevada and parts of White Pine County. Due to storm motions being a little fast, much of the storms will be a mix of wet and dry, especially for Humboldt county starting as dry thunderstorms and transition to more of a mix by the evening. By Tuesday and Wednesday, thunderstorm chances continue to drop to a 10-30% chance more across eastern Nevada. Greatest hazards with these thunderstorms is gusty erratic outflow winds up to 45-55 mph, brief periods of heavy rainfall especially over recently burned areas, and cloud to ground lightning. The cooling temperature trend will hit sort of a plateau as highs stay in the mid 90s, but cloud cover from storms has helped with cooler temperatures moving in. By the end of the week, cooling temperature trends will amp up with highs dropping into the 80s by the weekend. Southerly winds will shift more to a southwesterly direction over the week as the high pressure shifts west, with elevated speeds up to 10-15 mph, gusts 20-25 mph in the afternoons. After Wednesday, models show increasing confidence that the high pressure that has been bringing in monsoonal moisture will begin to shift back west towards southern Arizona, thus cutting off moisture flow. At the end of the week, the discrepancies with the models take shape with different outcomes of weather patterns. ECMWF is showing the upper ridge strengthening and spreading across the southwest, which will lead to a more southwesterly flow that will give drier air and warmer temperatures. GFS is showing an upper level trough over the northwest and pushing towards the silver state, giving a more zonal flow still with dry air but also with cooler temperatures. Confidence remains mixed on what the outcome will be for the extended period with overall conditions expected to be dry, but temperatures and winds remain uncertain. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence for daily monsoon activity with a 20-50% chance today and tomorrow for central and northern Nevada. Moderate confidence for a 10-30% chance for monsoon activity over eastern Nevada Tuesday and Wednesday. Moderate confidence on dry conditions returning to the silver state Thursday through Sunday next week. Low confidence in upper level patterns after Wednesday as models show discrepancies on potential outcomes for winds and temperatures. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will be the primary flight conditions across all terminals over the next 24 hour period. Winds from the south/southwest at 10-15 kts, gusts up to 20-25 kts. VCTS conditions possible near all terminals this afternoon and evening as monsoonal moisture keeps a 20-50% chance for storm development. There is a small chance that some of the storms may move over the terminals with -TSRA conditions, but will be left out of the TAFs as chances are low except for KENV with a greater than 30% chance a thunderstorm will move over the terminal. && .FIRE WEATHER... Monsoon activity continues as monsoonal moisture continues to push into Nevada from the south. 20-50% chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms for central and northern Nevada today and tomorrow. Greatest hazards will be gusty erratic winds from outflows up to 45-55 mph, brief periods of heavy rainfall especially over recently burned areas, and cloud to ground lightning. By Tuesday and Wednesday, monsoonal moisture flow will begin to slow down and be cut off by Thursday as the high pressure that is bringing in the moisture shifts more west towards Arizona. There will still be a 10-30% chance for more isolated to scattered thunderstorms over eastern Nevada Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will shift from a southerly direction to a more southwesterly direction by mid-week, with afternoon speeds up to 10-15 mph, gusts 20-25 mph. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...97 AVIATION...97 FIRE WEATHER...97  383 FXUS61 KCLE 231920 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 320 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the upcoming forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms are expected across parts of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania this evening into early tonight. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds and small hail is possible this evening. 2) Cooler weather with occasional lake effect rain showers continue across parts of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through early Tuesday. 3) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday night into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... An upper-level low remains situated over the Great Lakes region today with the occluded surface low right along the Ontario/Quebec border. A compact mid-level shortwave trough is working its way around western edge of the upper low and will approach the forecast from the north this evening. Paired with the left exit region of a jet streak over the western Great Lakes and we have solid forcing for ascent and pretty good confidence in timing and areal extent of precipitation this evening into early tonight. We start with scattered showers and storms areawide this afternoon as MLCAPE exceeds 250 J/kg underneath the jet streak forcing. The impending shortwave will focus a better period of thunderstorm development roughly along and northeast of I-80 in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania between 7 PM and 12 AM. This is where MLCAPE will be greatest (>500 J/kg) and exists the chance for organized convection that will have the potential for lightning, gusty winds (most likely in the 40-50 mph range), small hail, and heavy rain. While the mid-level speed max will be offset to the southwest, effective bulk shear of around 25-35 knots should be sufficient for an organized convection. Deep layer shear should be enough to produce strong winds but lack of DCAPE and waning low-level lapse rates is likely to make 40-50 mph gusts more common rather than 58+ mph (severe thunderstorm warning criteria). Small hail is likely to be pretty common in most thunderstorms this evening, aided by low freezing heights around 8-9kft and modest mid-level lapse rates. Large hail at or exceeding 1" is unlikely but possible with any rotating updrafts. Heavy rain is likely with thunderstorms with minor flooding possible is low-lying or flood-prone areas. Precipitation is unlikely to reach amounts for flash flooding. KEY MESSAGE 2.. Below normal temperatures continue through at least Tuesday with lake effect rain showers continuing tonight through Tuesday morning. Rain is likely to be more more persistent in Northwest Pennsylvania, compared to the "snowbelt" region of Northeast Ohio where rain showers will be more intermittent. KEY MESSAGE 3... Temperatures and humidity build back to near normal Wednesday and Thursday ahead of our next upper-level trough and low pressure system. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday night into Thursday with PoPs peaking in the 40-60% range. Can't completely rule out severe weather, but at this point most storms look to remain sub-severe. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/... Low-end VFR (3.5kft cigs) conditions across the TAF sites this afternoon with pockets of non- VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms later this evening and overnight, mainly east of I-71. Starting to see some developing isolated to scattered showers across the area this afternoon, though thunder remains at a minimum so far. The highest confidence for more widespread showers and thunderstorms is later this evening, mainly at CLE/YNG/ERI. Brief elevated wind gusts up to 40 knots are possible at ERI with this activity. Winds remain elevated out ofthe west to northwest this afternoon, 10 to 15 knots with periodic gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Some isolated higher gusts up to 30 knots cannot be ruled out through the rest of this afternoon. Winds will diminish to less than 10 knots overnight, increasing again out of the west Monday afternoon, 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots possible. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in lake effect rain and/or low ceilings across the snowbelt late Monday into Tuesday. Non-VFR may return in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday. && .MARINE... Rough marine conditions will continue across much of Lake Erie through Monday with elevated west to northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots resulting in waves of 3 to 6 feet. Marine conditions will gradually improve Monday night into Tuesday as winds subside to 10 knots or less. Winds will shift towards the south to southwest on Wednesday, increasing into the 10 to 15 knot range by Thursday. A few stronger wind gusts in excess of 34 knots are likely across the central and eastern basin of Lake Erie through this evening, associated with showers and thunderstorms. There is also a risk for waterspouts into Tuesday morning. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday afternoon for OHZ009- 010. Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for OHZ011-012- 089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LEZ144-145. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for LEZ146>149. && $$ DISCUSSION...Saunders AVIATION...Kahn MARINE...Kahn  486 FXUS63 KEAX 231923 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 223 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated sprinkles possible along the MO/KS state line this afternoon- early evening. * Showers with a few embedded lightning strikes expected tonight mainly west of a line from Lamoni- Moberly MO. Rainfall amounts are expected to be light totaling less than 0.25". * Temperatures warm to mid week ahead of a cold front moving through the region. * Breezy southerly winds expected next weekend, with the potential of showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Isentropic lift on the 305-310K surfaces is leading to weak shower activity building into the area from Nebraska and eastern KS. Very dry air in the subcloud layer (nearly 10K feet) is going to limit what reaches the ground, but could see a few sprinkles along the Missouri/KS state late through the afternoon into the early evening hours. Towards midnight, low level warm air/moisture advection leads to weak instability and could see spotty scattered showers develop. Instability remains quite weak with moist adiabatic lapse rates aloft, but still should be able to support weak showers with an embedded lightning strike here and there. 06Z NAM NEST hinted at the potential for heavy rainfall with this activity overnight, but successive model runs have contained precipitable water values to ~1.5" (which is near normal for this time of year). Expect accumulating precip to largely be west of a line from Lamoni Iowa to Moberly MO with surface high to the east limiting eastward extent of the precipitation shield. Low level warm air advection weakens after 12Z Monday and expect shower activity to weaken and shift southeast with time as short wave builds east. Partial clearing should allow for a decent temperature recovery on Monday, and even warmer conditions Tuesday into Wednesday as upper ridge across the west expands east. Ridge riding shortwave is expected to build into the Upper Midwest Wednesday, with trailing cold front moving through the region Wednesday morning. Could see a few showers and storms with the frontal passage, but timing may limit coverage. Surface ridge moves through the region on Thursday with stronger return flow Friday into next weekend. With the gulf wide open, ample moisture in place for showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions through the period. There could be a few sprinkled this afternoon along and west of the MO/KS state line. Towards 06Z, could see some scattered showers and storms develop. These storms should be based near 10K feet agl, so little to no visibility resriction is expected near the surface. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT AVIATION...BT  439 FXUS65 KABQ 231921 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 121 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1211 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms will decrease in coverage today and Monday, then increase in coverage Tuesday through Thursday, with a risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, and ponding of water on roads. - A risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will develop with storms along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains both Tuesday and Wednesday. - Moderate-to-high heat risk will impact much of central and eastern New Mexico during the first half of the week, then spread to western areas as well during the latter half of the week with near-record high temperatures each day. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1211 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Upper level high pressure remains squarely planted over NM with central 500 mb heights of about 597-598 decameters. This is keeping temperatures generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal. This orientation of the high has not offered any recent moisture intrusions to come into the state, but earlier monsoon moisture has been getting recycled with daily rounds of storms producing small, but mighty footprints. More stability has wrapped into the southeastern and south central areas of the forecast area, inhibiting storms there, and this has shoved the focus for convective initiation into the western and northern high terrain. The other feature of significance is a small perturbation riding in the weak westerly flow over CO which will spawn storms through the afternoon, and cold pools from these cells should eventually lead to a few more storms into northern NM through the evening. Any storms that make into northeastern NM could find localized shear enhancements near this cold pool, and could briefly turn strong to severe through the evening. Elsewhere outflows will keep low, but present, storm prospects in the northern and central valleys this evening with very low probabilities for airmass storms in the east central plains. Leftover cloud debris will then be slow to clear through the morning Monday. Conditions on Monday will be similar with another small shortwave trough moving on the northern periphery of the high into CO, likely igniting additional storms that will sag into northern NM. A moist backdoor frontal boundary will also be seeping into northeastern NM, potentially aiding in convective initiation while also introducing more shear for additional strong cells. Instability will expand a bit southward, introducing low storm chances for the central to south central highlands and mountains along with a more southward extent of the eastern plains. Temperatures will remain hot and above normal with only a degree or two of "cooling" in the northeast while southeastern zones gain as much. This will push Roswell to 105, Heat Advisory criteria for the area, so after coordination with neighboring offices, this advisory statement will be issued with this forecast package for Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1211 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Upper level high pressure will move very little through the mid week period, only sagging a bit southwestward near the AZ-NM border with 500 mb heights remaining in a 596-598 decameter range. Temperatures will remain hot and above normal with backdoor frontal intrusions only offering a couple to a few degrees of cooling in northeastern to east central zones Tuesday and more-so on Wednesday. With the high positioning slightly southwestward, this will introduce more northwesterly flow aloft over the northeastern NM zones. This coupled with northerly or easterly surface winds, will raise bulk shear values and increase the severe threat while higher dewpoints, upslope, and surface convergence also contribute. Storm coverage may undergo a slight reduction over the southwestern mountains and Continental Divide Tuesday and Wednesday, but should regain potential into Thursday as the moist backdoor frontal air mass gets convectively aided and shoved farther west. Into Friday, the high would remain close to the AZ-NM border with storms being reliant on diurnal heating and recycling of Thursday's moisture. By next weekend, the upper high looks to weaken and begin elongating west-to-east with drier air pivoting into NM from the northwest. The GFS and GEFS ensemble mean hints at another shortwave dropping into northeastern NM which would generate additional storms, but European and Canadian solutions do not appear as favorable. Consequently, the forecast for next weekend leans on the drier side with temperatures running a few to several degrees above normal for all areas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Showers and thunderstorms will generally be focused over the western and northern high terrain early this afternoon before gradually filling into nearby valleys and lower elevations through the early evening. Storms will be capable of producing small hail, lightning, gusty downburst winds, and brief downpours that will temporarily reduce ceilings and visibility. A storm or two in northeastern New Mexico will have the potential to turn strong to severe with larger hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms will mostly come to an end before midnight with just a few stray showers lingering into the early morning Monday. Storms will tend to be most concentrated over northern New Mexico going into Monday afternoon. Hot temperatures and high density altitude readings will lead to poor aircraft performance for some. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1211 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Upper level high pressure will remain stronger than normal for the next several days, generally keeping temperatures 5 to 12 degrees above average. However, sufficient monsoon moisture remains in place over western and northern NM where storms will develop through this evening, and a weak disturbance in Colorado may assist northern NM areas as it dips closer. An increase in storms is still forecast for northeastern NM Monday and Tuesday before multiplying across the eastern half of the state on Wednesday. The catalyst for this increase will be weak, but moist backdoor fronts that will slide in from the northeast, however they will not provide much in the way of temperature relief. Afternoon humidity will commonly drop to 12 to 20% each day, but the incoming backdoor fronts will allow humidity to recover better, particularly in northeastern areas where morning recoveries will reach 60-80% by mid week. Unfortunately, western zones will still observe only meager humidity recoveries of 40-60% in the mornings. There are indications that storms will reduce in number Friday into next weekend, but the above normal temperatures look to persist. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 64 94 63 95 / 20 5 0 5 Dulce........................... 51 91 51 92 / 20 10 10 20 Cuba............................ 59 90 59 92 / 30 10 20 10 Gallup.......................... 57 90 57 92 / 30 30 20 20 El Morro........................ 56 85 56 87 / 20 30 20 30 Grants.......................... 58 90 59 91 / 30 30 20 20 Quemado......................... 58 87 58 89 / 20 20 20 30 Magdalena....................... 63 89 64 90 / 10 20 10 20 Datil........................... 58 86 59 87 / 20 20 20 20 Reserve......................... 58 93 58 95 / 10 20 10 20 Glenwood........................ 63 98 64 100 / 10 10 5 20 Chama........................... 52 84 52 84 / 20 30 20 40 Los Alamos...................... 63 87 64 87 / 40 30 20 40 Pecos........................... 59 90 59 90 / 20 20 20 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 55 85 56 85 / 40 20 30 40 Red River....................... 45 78 45 78 / 40 30 30 50 Angel Fire...................... 39 82 36 82 / 30 40 40 50 Taos............................ 55 89 56 89 / 30 20 20 30 Mora............................ 55 86 55 84 / 20 40 40 60 Espanola........................ 61 94 59 94 / 40 20 20 20 Santa Fe........................ 62 90 62 90 / 20 20 20 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 61 93 60 94 / 20 10 20 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 95 69 96 / 20 10 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 69 96 70 97 / 20 5 10 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 63 98 63 99 / 20 5 10 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 98 70 98 / 20 5 20 10 Belen........................... 67 98 67 99 / 20 5 10 5 Bernalillo...................... 66 97 67 98 / 20 5 20 10 Bosque Farms.................... 63 98 64 98 / 20 5 10 10 Corrales........................ 67 98 68 99 / 20 5 20 10 Los Lunas....................... 65 98 66 98 / 20 5 10 10 Placitas........................ 66 94 67 95 / 20 10 20 10 Rio Rancho...................... 68 97 69 97 / 20 5 20 10 Socorro......................... 70 99 71 100 / 10 10 10 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 90 64 91 / 20 20 20 20 Tijeras......................... 64 91 64 92 / 20 10 20 20 Edgewood........................ 60 91 61 92 / 20 20 20 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 56 93 58 93 / 10 20 20 30 Clines Corners.................. 60 90 61 90 / 20 20 20 20 Mountainair..................... 60 91 61 93 / 10 20 10 20 Gran Quivira.................... 61 91 61 92 / 10 20 10 20 Carrizozo....................... 67 95 68 96 / 0 10 10 20 Ruidoso......................... 53 89 59 89 / 0 20 10 40 Capulin......................... 55 87 55 85 / 30 40 50 70 Raton........................... 55 91 55 89 / 30 50 40 70 Springer........................ 56 93 56 91 / 30 30 30 60 Las Vegas....................... 57 90 57 88 / 20 30 20 60 Clayton......................... 65 96 65 93 / 30 20 60 50 Roy............................. 60 93 61 91 / 20 20 40 50 Conchas......................... 67 101 67 98 / 20 10 30 30 Santa Rosa...................... 66 98 66 95 / 20 5 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 69 101 68 98 / 20 5 30 20 Clovis.......................... 70 100 69 99 / 10 5 20 20 Portales........................ 71 102 70 101 / 5 5 20 20 Fort Sumner..................... 69 101 69 99 / 20 0 20 20 Roswell......................... 71 105 72 103 / 0 0 0 5 Picacho......................... 67 99 67 98 / 0 10 10 10 Elk............................. 63 94 64 94 / 0 10 5 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...52  469 FXUS65 KREV 231922 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1222 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible today across western NV, with chances spreading into northeast CA on Monday. * Smoke from the Hawk Fire will continue to impact air quality and visibility, especially near the Reno/Sparks metro area today. * Seasonably warm temperatures are expected through the week, with increasing afternoon winds Tuesday through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... The synoptic pattern for the short term features a persistent upper ridge anchored over the Southwest US, with western NV remaining on the northern periphery of this ridge. Embedded shortwave disturbances within the prevailing southwesterly flow aloft will be the primary drivers for any convective activity. A significant concern for today, particularly in Reno/Sparks and adjacent areas, is smoke from the Hawk Fire. The latest HRRR smoke model continues to show patchy smoke this morning, with an increase in near-surface smoke concentration this afternoon and evening. This may lead to reduced visibilities and degraded air quality (higher AQI). Patchy smoke is also possible in portions of the Nevada Basin and Range through tonight. Also today, a slight shortwave disturbance is progged to move through central Nevada, allowing for isolated shower and thunderstorm chances primarily over Mineral, Lyon, and Churchill Counties between 2 PM and 10 PM PDT. Hi-res model soundings show MUCAPE around 400-700 J/kg and DCAPE around 1400-1700 J/kg, indicating any storms that form may see outflow winds of 45-55 mph. Storm motions will be leaning towards the faster side too, so we can't rule out new lightning starts. Current PoPs over the aforementioned areas are around 15-30%. On Monday, another disturbance is forecast to track closer to the Oregon border, shifting the 15-25% chance for showers and thunderstorms northward into Lassen, Modoc, and Northern Washoe Counties. Forecast PW values are expected to range from 0.5-0.7 inches, raising the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. The SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook showcases an area of isolated dry thunderstorms for the far northern portions of our CWA, specifically northern Washoe County and Surprise Valley. By Tuesday, drier conditions are anticipated across the CWA through the rest of the week, as the monsoonal moisture shifts east over eastern NV. Afternoon winds will generally be light to moderate, typically gusting up to 20-25 mph today and Monday, however, NBM guidance suggests an increase in afternoon winds on Tuesday. Gusts could potentially reach 30-35 mph in some areas across northeast California and northwest Nevada. A notable feature for the mid-week period, particularly Wednesday through Thursday, will be an increase in afternoon winds. This is attributed to a Pacific Northwest upper low moving towards British Columbia, which will enhance the pressure gradient across our region. NBM probabilities show a 50-80% chance for maximum wind gusts exceeding 30 mph on these days across parts of northeast California and northwest Nevada. While widespread critical fire weather conditions are not currently anticipated, these elevated winds combined with dry conditions will lead to elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns. Winds are expected to gradually subside by the upcoming weekend. -Justin && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will continue for most terminals today, although KRNO will likely see reductions to visibility from smoke from the Hawk Fire. Timing of the smoke settling into Reno will coincide with the winds dying off, around 04-05Z tonight. It will disperse again Monday morning around 19Z. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are expected today across the region with typical afternoon zephyr breezes. Mineral, Lyon, and Churchill Counties see a ~10-25% chance for isolated showers with a 10-15% chance for an isolated thunderstorm between 23/21Z-24/06Z. Outside ~15-30% chances for showers in NE CA and far NW NV on Monday, dry conditions look to prevail through at least the first half of the week. -Justin/078 && .FIRE WEATHER... Breezy west winds with gusts up to 25 mph and RH reductions of 20-25% will support elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon across the Sierra Front and northeast CA, including the Hawk Fire. Overnight recoveries remain around the 35-45% range near the Hawk Fire, potentially extending burn periods into the overnight hours. We will have an unstable airmass overhead again today, with thunderstorms chances of 20-30% over Mineral/Lyon/Churchill counties. There are two main concerns with this: potential dry thunderstorms due to faster storm motions, and deeper vertical plume growth due to increased instability. Looking ahead to this upcoming week, increased winds with gusts upwards of 35 mph (40 mph in wind prone areas) are expected Tue- Thu, mainly for the Sierra Front and northeast CA. The SPC's Fire Weather Outlook for Tue-Thu also outlined those areas under a 40% chance of critical fire weather conditions due to wind and low RH. -Justin && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$  511 FXUS63 KJKL 231923 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 323 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Noticeably cooler and less humid air arrives behind a cold front to start the new week. - Chances for a few showers and thunderstorms return around midweek. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1025 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 14Z sfc analysis shows high pressure nudging into Kentucky from the west. This is working to clear the morning valley fog while it brings in slightly drier and cooler air. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid upper 60s to lower 70s. Meanwhile, amid light winds, dewpoints are generally in the low 60s north and in the mid to upper 60s south. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 520 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Early this morning, an enlongated upper low was centered over sections of the Great Lakes with an upper trough axis southeast into the mid OH Valley and Central to Southern Appalachians to the Carolinas with an upper ridge centered in NM with ridging extending across portions of the western Conus into the Central Conus/Plains. Drier air has been gradually moving into the Lower OH Valley and eastern KY behind a cold front though the drier air has made a bit less progress into the more southern and southeastern locations as a ridge of sfc high pressure builds into the Lower OH valley from the mid and upper MS Valley regions. Rather extensive fog mainly in the valleys has spread into some no valley locations. Some observation sites such as KEKQ, KSME, and KI35 have recently reported dense fog and fog appears on the dense side at some KY Mesonet station locations as well as on a few of the KYTC cameras. With that in mind, have opted to issue an SPS for fog over the next few hours for areas generally south and southeast of the I-64 corridor. Today and tonight, gradual 500 mb height rises are anticipated as the upper low meanders to the eastern Great Lakes and sections of the mid Atlantic states and axis of the upper trough remains east of the Commonwealth. At the same time, the sfc ridge of high pressure will build across the Commonwealth and into sections of the mid OH Valley by late tonight. A dry airmass for this time of year will be ushered into eastern KY with PW per the 00Z HREF expected in the 5th to 20th percentile. This will set the stage for not much in the way of cloud cover today other than diurnally driven cumulus following the lifting and dissipation of the fog through the 9 AM to 10 AM EDT timeframe this morning. Mixing should result in dewpoints dropping a bit below NBM deterministic values. This airmass will also be cooler as well as drier and this should support highs around 5 degrees below normal for the day on Sunday. The pattern should again favor valley fog formation along the rivers, larger creeks, and area lakes tonight. The normally colder locations may drop to as low as 52 or 53 tonight with the drier airmass in place with more in the way of solid mid 50s for valleys where fog forms and ridgetop locations on the order of the upper 50s to near 60. On Monday, 500 mb heights should continue a general upward trend as the axis of the upper trough moves further east of the Lower OH Valley and Appalachians and upper ridging centered in the NM vicinity builds in sections of the Central Conus/Plains and toward the MS Valley. One more shortwaves will be moving around this ridging and near the mid MS Valley area by Monday evening. Highs for Monday should be similar to Sunday with northwest to west northwest flow aloft prevailing. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 323 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 The long term period begins Tuesday with a subtropical ridge and closed 500 mb high ranging from 594-597 dm centered over the Four Corners region. Elsewhere, an upper-level trough is modeled across the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and New England. Across eastern Kentucky, Tuesday will be fair and quiet with dew points in the 50s, and temperatures in the mid 80s feeling a bit less humid compared to previous days. Overnight, light winds and clear skies may aid in patchy valley fog developing in typical favored river valley locations. With valleys possibly decoupling at night, temperatures in the valleys may cool into the mid to upper 50s, while ridgetops cool into the upper 50s to low 60s, Tuesday night. An upper low modeled over southern Manitoba will progress southeast overnight, ending up in the Upper Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. A surface low will also form in the Great Lakes vicinity. Some high and mid-level clouds may work into the area through Wednesday in advance of the approaching system. By Wednesday evening, as a surface cold front extends from the Great Lakes southwestward through the Ohio Valley and Ozarks, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Wednesday night into Thursday, peaking Thursday ahead of the frontal passage. By Friday, the cold front is expected to have passed east of the Commonwealth, with the trough axis shifting east of the forecast area Friday into Saturday, leaving broad troughing across the eastern US. Lingering moisture along the departing trough may support isolated shower and storm chances Friday afternoon along the VA/KY border. Model and ensemble agreement is poor by next weekend. However, deterministic guidance diverges, with one scenario depicting a shortwave progressing through the Central Plains into portions of the Mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys by Saturday evening into Sunday, which would lead to another round of showers and storms across the area on Sunday. Conversely, an alternate scenario tracks the shortwave farther north into the Ohio Valley. NBM has maintained low-end isolated PoPs for Sunday (15-20%) to reflect this low-confidence scenario. Temperatures should remain slightly above normal for this time of year, in the mid to upper 80s. The CPC 6-10 day outlook supports this thinking. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Valley fog is forecast for overnight and early Monday. It will bring localized IFR or worse conditions, probably affecting a few TAF sites at times around dawn. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...HAL  518 FXUS64 KOUN 231924 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 224 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 220 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Excessive heat continues into early next week. - Strong to severe storms are possible Monday morning across north central Oklahoma and along the I-40 corridor Monday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts are the main hazard. - Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas Monday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Hot and humid conditions are ongoing across Oklahoma and north Texas this afternoon with the most dangerous heat across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon. A few high-based thunderstorms may develop across the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles this afternoon with a chance that the remnants of the activity will move into northwest Oklahoma this evening. For tonight, increasing isentropic ascent/warm air advection associated with the low-level jet will result in showers and thunderstorms developing across Kansas, Missouri, and northeast Oklahoma after midnight. The I-35 corridor in Oklahoma will on the southwest/western periphery of the strongest ascent with the potential for isolated development as far southwest as south central Oklahoma. Strong to low-end severe thunderstorms are possible, especially across north central Oklahoma. Mahale && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A surface low and attendant cold front will advance southeast into Oklahoma on Monday. The location of the cold front/surface low could be impacted by the morning showers and thunderstorms and whether convective outflow, post-frontal clouds, and/or rain advance the effective cold front farther to the south. The cold front will likely be very close to the I-40 corridor with the potential for a sharp north-to-south temperature gradient somewhere in that zone. For example, the most aggressive model with the cold front is the 12Z NAM with abundant post-frontal cloud cover. As a result, it has a high temperature of 96 deg F in Oklahoma City. In contrast, the National Blend of Models (NBM) has 108 deg F with Oklahoma City in the pre-frontal torch ahead of the front. For those who live in north central Oklahoma (i.e., near Ponca City), we have high confidence that you will be on the cooler side of the front. If you live in western north Texas, (i.e., near Wichita Falls, Seymour, Vernon, Knox City, etc.), we have high confidence you will be on the hot side of the front. It is the middle/I-40 corridor where uncertainty is the highest. Given the uncertainty on the exact location of the cold front, we opted to keep the location for the Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory relatively small for tomorrow afternoon. For now, we issued an Extreme Heat Warning across all of western north Texas into parts of southwest Oklahoma. To the north of Extreme Heat Warning, we issued a Heat Advisory for a row or two of counties. These are the locations that we have the highest confidence to meet Heat Advisory and/or Extreme Heat Warning criteria. We may have to expand both products farther north depending on the location of the cold front tomorrow. There is the potential for isolated thunderstorms along the cold front tomorrow afternoon. Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing strong to wind gusts from downbursts given the very hot conditions ahead of the front. With the veered low-level flow and very hot temperatures ahead of the cold front tomorrow, relative humidity values are forecast to fall to around 15 to 20% across southwestOklahoma into western north Texas. This will result in elevated fire weather conditions to perhaps locally near-critical fire weather conditions (depending on the winds). With the ongoing drought and very dry fuels, the total fire environment (weather + fuels) will be susceptible to at least initial attack fires. Therefore, at the very least, a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) will be needed once again tomorrow. A Red Flag Warning (RFW) could be needed if there is a corridor of higher fire weather conditions. One area that will have to be monitored carefully is near the location of the cold front, where there will be a wind shift and the potential for isolated thunderstorms that would pose a threat for gusty/erratic winds and dry lightning. For Tuesday, there will likely still be a north-to-south temperature gradient with the cold front likely stalling in the area. The hottest temperatures will continue to be across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas with less hot conditions across northern Oklahoma. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 As the second shortwave moves across the area on Wednesday, not out of the question to see a few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms. Latest medium range model runs of both the GFS and ECMWF show the upper ridge drifting further southwest as we go through the second half of the upcoming week. This will allow modest northwest flow to continue through the end of the week and possibly into the weekend with periodic shortwave troughs traversing the Southern Plains and at least some rain chances continue. With this retrogression of the upper ridge, it should allow temperatures to cool from the peak of the heating that will be see earlier in the week. However, it still appears that above normal temperatures will continue. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through the period. Scattered showers and storms with gusty winds and briefly reduced visibilities are possible across northern OK this evening and into early Monday morning. Otherwise, expect dry conditions with south/southeast winds tonight. Winds will veer Monday morning, becoming northwesterly across northwest OK, and southwesterly across southern and central portions of OK and across western north TX as a surface low moves eastward. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 78 105 77 102 / 10 20 20 10 Hobart OK 80 111 77 106 / 0 20 20 10 Wichita Falls TX 82 111 81 109 / 0 0 10 10 Gage OK 75 100 71 99 / 20 0 20 10 Ponca City OK 72 96 72 96 / 30 10 0 10 Durant OK 79 108 79 107 / 0 10 20 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005-006-009>012- 014>020-023>032-040>042. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ021-022- 033>039-043>048-050>052. Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ033-036- 037-044-045. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ034-035-038- 039-041-046>048-050>052. TX...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090. Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...10 SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...08  777 FXUS61 KBOX 231931 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 331 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A high risk for rip current statement has been issued for Nantucket on Monday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Outside a few showers/isolated t-storm risk into mid evening with the focus across the interior especially near and west of the CT River Valley. Areas of fog develop overnight which may become locally dense in spots. - Drier with a return to seasonable temperatures this week. Rain chances return Thursday/Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Outside a few showers/isolated t-storm risk into mid evening with the focus across the interior especially near and west of the CT River Valley. Areas of fog develop overnight which may become locally dense in spots. The main cluster of showers that resulted in brief heavy rain along with a rumble or two of thunder has exited the eastern Ma coast earlier this afternoon. Behind this activity some subsidence and drier mid level air was allowing the lower clouds to begin to mix out from southwest to northeast. We will see a late rise in temps through early evening well into the 70s to perhaps near 80 in the CT River Valley as some peeks of sun try to develop. This will result in some modest instability developing with ML Capes approaching 1000 J/KG across parts of the interior. However...subsidence behind the earlier shortwave coupled with the main forcing well to our west will limit the additional risk. Nonetheless...a few showers and perhaps an isolated t-storm or two will be possible into mid- evening. The main focus for this activity will be across the interior and especially near and west of the CT River Valley closer to the upper level shortwave. Otherwise...the main story later tonight will be for the development of fog some of which may become locally dense. Winds become light/calm overnight coupled with partial clearing, wet ground and dewpoints remaining in the 60s will set the stage for fog development. Some of the fog may become locally dense too. Low temperatures overnight will drop into the middle to upper 50s in the outlying locations...to the middle 60s in the urban heat islands of downtown Boston/Providence. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier with a return to seasonable temperatures this week. Rain chances return Thursday/Friday. A post-frontal air mass ushers in drier conditions and warmer temperatures on westerly winds this week. As skies gradually clear from the dreary weekend, dewpoints will begin to drop slightly... into the upper 50s as opposed to the low to mid 60s we've been seeing. High pressure begins to slowly build Tuesday into Wednesday, prolonging the clear skies, drier weather, and warmer temperatures through the middle of the week. Expecting temperatures to return to seasonable, in the upper 70s to low 80s, and feel less humid thanks to the lower dewpoints through the end of the week. Chances for rain showers return Thursday and Friday as a low pressure system develops over the Great Lakes and meanders east through southern Ontario. Some uncertainty remains regarding the onset of the showers as there's little consistency in the global ensembles on the actual placement of the low as it tracks through Canada; however, confidence has ticked up slightly in a later show of showers Thursday evening into the overnight period compared to yesterday's model runs. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update... This afternoon through tonight...Moderate confidence in trends but lower confidence in specific timing. The main cluster of showers and anoccasional rumble of thunder or two will be exiting eastern MA by mid afternoon. Otherwise...a few additional showers and perhaps an isolated t-storm will be possible into mid evening with the focus across interior southern New England and particularly areas near and west of the CT River Valley. IFR/LIFR conditions will be improving to mainly MVFR-VFR by early-mid evening in most locations although the process will be slowest across the Cape/Islands. However...a wet ground, light winds and dewpoints still in the 60s will likely result in areas of fog developing in the typically prone locations. Some of that fog may become locally dense overnight...while areas like KBOS end up going VFR. So a wide variety of conditions possible toward daybreak. Winds become calm/light SW tonight. Monday and Monday night...High confidence. Any leftover ground fog quickly burns off after sunrise Mon. Otherwise...VFR with SW winds of 7-13 knots. Mainly VFR conditions continue Mon night outside of any localized patches of ground fog that develop in those typically prone locations. Winds become calm/light SW Mon night. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in trends but lower confidence in specific timing. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in trends but lower confidence in specific timing. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight through Monday night...High confidence. The pressure gradient will generally remain weak enough to keep winds/seas below small craft advisory through Monday night. However...nearshore SW winds may gust into the lower 20 knots late Monday result in some decent chop for recreational boaters. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...High Risk for Rip Currents from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for MAZ024. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Frank/McMinn AVIATION...Frank/McMinn MARINE...Frank/McMinn  683 FXUS63 KILX 231930 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonal and mostly dry weather is expected through at least Tuesday evening over central and southeast IL. - The next chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to marginally severe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Nice late summer weather pattern expected through Tuesday across central and southeast IL after a very active weather pattern 1st 3 weeks of the month. Weak 1021 mb surface high pressure over nw MO into central Iowa and upper MS river valley to settle over IL during tonight and into the mid Ohio river valley on Mon and Mon night while ridging back into central/ne IL. This will continue fair wx across the prairie state into Tuesday with dry conditions and more comfortable humidity levels. NW winds 5-15 mph and scattered diurnally driven cumulus clouds over central and ne IL to dissipate after sunset while veil of high clouds over MO and central/se Iowa is clipping west central and sw IL. A disturbance over the central plains to keep chances of convection well sw of IL over central and sw MO tonight into early Monday as it tracks se across the MO valley/Ozarks. Patchy shallow ground fog may develop during overnight into early Mon morning mainly near river valleys and low lying rural ares. HREF only has 15-30% chance of vsbys getting to 5 miles or less over portions of CWA later tonight. HRRR and RAP show very little fog formation with drier air in place while NAM and GFSLamp show some patchy fog development mainly near river valleys. Comfortable night ahead with lows in the mid to upper 50s. Highs Monday around 80F with lower 80s southeast IL and sw CWA, with scattered cumulus clouds developing by midday giving partly to mostly sunny skies. Lows 55-60F Monday night and highs in the low to mid 80s Tuesday. Winds to stay fairly light generally under 10 mph tonight through Tue. A northern stream upper level shortwave moving over the southern Canadian Prairie Provinces next few days, will track se through the northern Great Lakes Region, sending a cold front se through IL during Wed afternoon and Wed night. This will likely bring our next chance for showers and thunderstorms. Increasing south to SW flow ahead of the cold front to bring in warmer and more humid air into central/se IL on Wed. Highs in the mid to upper 80s Wed and possibly approaching 90F from Springfield sw with dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s/lower 70s. A cap initially in place on Wed could break later in the afternoon and Wed evening allowing thunderstorms to develop in a moderate instability with wind shear environment. Although the better upper forcing will be displaced to our north, a few strong to marginally severe storms could develop later Wednesday afternoon and evening, posing a threat for damaging wind gusts. Could see lingering low chances of showers/thunderstorms in se IL early Thu, otherwise fair weather with seasonable temperatures to return Thu through at least Friday night as high pressure settles into the region. Strong mid/upper level ridge over the Southwest States through this work week begins to break down/flatten this weekend, and may see disturbance tracking into the midwest during this weekend especially by Sunday. A few model members shows some convection chances as early as Saturday over the IL river valley, while more members wait until Sunday for convection chances, though GEM and Ecmwf are dry thru the weekend. NBM keeps pops low this weekend with 20% pops over IL river valley Sat and Sat evening and 20-40% pops overnight Sat night and Sunday. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8-14 Day outlook for Aug 31-Sep 6th has a 35-45% chance of above normal temperatures over central/se IL and 33-40% below normal precipitation from Quincy to Danville north and trending near normal south. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail next 24 hours through 18Z/1 pm Monday across the central IL airports. The only exception would be if any patchy shallow ground fog develops late tonight/early Mon morning. HREF has only a 15-30% chance of visibilities getting to 5 miles or less from 09Z-14Z over central IL airports. Best chances of fog will be near the river valleys and low lying rural areas. Diurnally driven few to scattered cumulus clouds with bases of 4-6k ft this afternoon to dissipate at sunset and could reappear after 16Z Mon. Weak 1020 mb high pressure over central/northern MO and ridging into central Iowa and upper MS river valley, to drift over the central OH river valley Monday morning while ridging back into northeast IL. NW winds 5-10 kts this afternoon (isolated gusts to 15 kts early like at DEC) to diminishing light and variable to calm tonight after sunset. Winds remain light Monday morning and could be variable direction yet with weak high pressure ridge nearby. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...07 DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...07  729 FXUS63 KLSX 231930 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable temperatures in the 80s continue this week with mostly dry weather expected. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A ridge of high pressure in the Southwest US and a trough over the Great Lakes has led to a subsident upper level flow through our area. That promotes high pressure and dry weather. At the surface, broad high pressure extends from western Ontario south into northern Missouri this afternoon with this high gradually nudging east over the next couple days. Tonight we'll see winds go light and temperatures drop into the low 60s and upper 50s. For some this will be the first time we've seen 50s since June. Clouds have the potential to complicate the cooling forecast tonight, especially in central Missouri. A limited attempt at moisture return northward through the Plains tonight may trigger an area of convection in Nebraska, tracking southeast into western Missouri. The rain from this likely stays west of our forecast area, but clouds have a better potential to spread into central Missouri, potentially holding temperatures a bit warmer overnight, in the low 60s. Tomorrow will be a very similar day to today, though perhaps a few degrees warmer. The high slides east allowing winds to turn southeasterly. Another day of sun will help to modify the air mass back into the low to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The trough in the east sees some reorientation this week. The initial trough lifts northeast out of New England and into the Canadian Maritimes while another trough arrives from the west and digs into the Great Lakes to replace it. Meanwhile, the Southwest Ridge remains largely in the same location with some daily wobbles. For us locally we'll maintain the persistent northwest flow aloft with richer moisture remaining suppressed to the south and west. Temperatures continue to gradually rebound through the mid and even upper 80s by Wednesday. The next trough arriving in the Great Lakes pushes a cold front southward through our forecast area Wednesday into Wednesday night. This represents our next best chance for rain, but those chances remain fairly limited locally. The better forcing with the trough passes by to our north, while the richer moisture remains suppressed to our south. The low resolution ensemble (LREF) guidance remains more ambitious with rain chances than the NBM. Of the LREF guidance, 60 to 70 percent of members produce rain across our forecast area in the 24 hours ending Wednesday night, up 10 percent from yesterday. Meanwhile, NBM 12hour PoP remains in the 10 to 20 percent range. This discrepancy is partially a result of timing variance in the guidance, but also uncertainty in the development of another convective complex to our west over the Plains linking up with the better moisture. The LREF may also be overestimating the rain chances a bit due to the lower resolution of this guidance, something NBM is tuned to adjust for with low QPF events. If we look deeper in the LREF we see the percentage of members that produce 0.05 inch or greater rainfall is only 30 to 40 percent over that same time period. This gives credence to the idea that the low resolution guidance may be indicating more widespread light rain amounts than should be expected as precipitation in this time period should be convective in nature. The air mass behind Wednesday's front is not as cool and dry as the last one, and we only get a small taste of it. So we do see the high temperature forecast for Thursday and Friday a few degrees lower than Wednesday, but still near normal for this time of year, in the mid 80s. Guidance is in good agreement that the western ridge flattens and spreads out across the southern tier of the country this weekend into the following week. This reduces the extremity of the heat within the ridge, but also broadens that warmth back into our area. By Saturday the NBM probability of 90 degrees creeps back up into the 20 to 40 percent range. Mercifully, the humidity remains limited at least initially, with NBM probability of 70 dewpoint only up to about 40 percent by the same time frame. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Light northwest winds continue this afternoon under some scattered cirrus clouds. Calm conditions tonight will lead to strong cooling. Valley locations have the best potential to fog if higher level cloud cover does not get more widespread. Synoptically, fog would be most likely at JEF where moisture depth is a bit greater, but that's also where cirrus clouds are most likely. SUS and CPS would also have a good chance to see fog by morning with less potential for cirrus to interfere. Any fog should burn off by 1330Z yielding VFR conditions again tomorrow. Winds will be very light but turning more southeast on Monday. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kimble LONG TERM...Kimble AVIATION...Kimble  673 FXUS63 KSGF 231930 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri tonight into Monday morning. Damaging wind to 60 mph is the primary severe weather hazard, with quarter size hail being a secondary hazard. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding are also possible. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A drier air mass is in place across the area behind the front that moved through the area yesterday. Dewpoints currently range from the middle 50s across central MO to around 60 across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri this afternoon. Highs today will range from around 80 across central Missouri to the lower 90s across far southwestern Missouri. An upper level disturbance is currently moving south towards the area this afternoon. Mid to high level clouds will continue to increase from north to south into this evening as the disturbance moves south. Some light rain showers will be possible at times late this afternoon and this evening as the disturbance moves south through the region. Rainfall amounts will generally be a trace to a few hundredths of an inch with the showers this evening as a drier air mass will remain in place across the area. Tonight into Monday morning moisture will start to advect back into the region from the southwest. Precipitable water values will increase to around 2" from the southwest tonight into Monday morning across portions of extreme southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri, as the moisture starts to advect into the region. MUCAPE values of around 500 to 1000 J/kg will also develop within the area of advection tonight into Monday morning, generally along and west of Highway 65, with weaker instability to the east. A low level jet will increase across the southwestern portions of the area which will result in isentropic lift increasing. As this occurs, a band of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region from the northwest to the southeast on the noise of the low level jet. Storm motions and 0-3km bulk shear vectors will be to the southeast which will be parallel to the lift. Therefore, some locally heavy rainfall will occur with the increase in moisture and some potential for training. Some of the short term models keep the lift more stationary across the western portions of the area which would result in more prolong training potential, while others slowly push the lift/advection to the northeast through the area. Localized areas of 2 to locally 4" of rainfall will be possible in bands and if more training of storms can occur, localized amount up to 6" could be possible. Outside the bands, rainfall amounts will likely drop off sharply. With the potential for higher rainfall rates and training, there will be a localized flooding risk within the heavier bands of rain tonight into Monday morning, generally between 4 to 10am. Some lingering showers could occur into mid day, but the heaviest should be overnight into the mid morning hours. Deep layer shear will increase across the area tonight into Monday morning, MUCAPE will be more modest but a few strong storms will be possible with scattered damaging winds gusts up to 60 mph as the main severe risk, and hail to the size of quarters a secondary risk. There is a Marginal (1 out of 5) Severe Thunderstorm Risk across the western portions of the area tonight mainly west of Highway 65. Instability will be weaker to the east, but some non severe thunderstorms will be possible east of Highway 65 with coverage decreasing further to the east. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The upper level ridge will remain west of area this week. Highs will generally range from the mid/upper 80s across central Missouri to the low/middle 90s across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri each day this week into next weekend. The region will remain in northwest flow this this week. The ensemble model members show a couple upper level disturbances moving through the northwest flow bringing some chances (20-30%) chances for storms at times mid week and again late week into next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Mid and high level clouds will increase from the north this afternoon and evening as an upper level disturbance moves south through region tonight. A few rain showers will be possible this evening as the disturbance moves into the area. Brief MVFR visibilities could be possible with the heavier showers. Tonight into Monday morning bands of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri, with the 10-14Z times is when the best coverage should occur, but it is possible for isolated convection prior to 10Z and for some linger shower and maybe a few storms after 14Z Monday morning. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...Wise AVIATION...Wise  896 FXUS65 KFGZ 231936 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1236 PM MST Sun Aug 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Moderate monsoon activity will continue through Monday, mainly along the higher terrain during the afternoon and evening hours. Then, as high pressure builds over Arizona, hot weather and a decline in storm activity is expected to develop as the flow of moisture northward into the region diminishes. && .DISCUSSION...Upper-air analysis shows the 500mb subtropical high pressure cell centered across central New Mexico, with a northeastward-moving shortwave trough draped across the Yavapai and Coconino County border. This system is actively supporting showers and thunderstorms across western Yavapai and Coconino Counties, while aiding convective initiation along portions of the Mogollon Rim. Moderate monsoon conditions persist today with storms drifting northeastward on average. The forecast favors high-terrain locations, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms between 30-60% in the mountains. However, mid-level warming is limiting deep atmospheric instability, keeping the threat for severe weather low. Given the presence of slow-moving storms, there is a low to medium risk for flash flooding. This threat is tempered by atmospheric moisture (precipitable water) values ranging from 0.75-0.85 inches north of the Mogollon Rim and 0.85-1.15 inches south of the Rim. Outflow wind gusts between 35-45 mph are possible in the vicinity of storms. Storm activity is forecast to decline after sunset. High- resolution model guidance indicates overnight showers and thunderstorms may move into the region from the south, impacting areas west of a Payson to Flagstaff to Page line. Similar convective coverage is forecast on Monday, though a surge of moisture northward from the Gulf of California will likely shift the main axis of high storm coverage into Coconino and Yavapai Counties, with more isolated activity expected elsewhere. By mid-to-late week, guidance generally agrees that the subtropical high pressure circulation will strengthen over Arizona. This will introduce more stable atmospheric conditions and a noticeable downturn in storm coverage, leaving only low- grade monsoon activity through the remainder of the week. Temperatures are forecast to warm during this period, with daytime temperatures approaching 10 degrees above normal across much of the area. Excessive Heat products may become necessary for lower elevation areas, including portions of Yavapai County and Grand Canyon country. && .AVIATION...Sunday 23/18Z through Monday 24/18Z....Mainly VFR conditions. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA starting to develop at 18Z and continuing through at least 03Z. There is the potential that SHRA/TSRA in south-central AZ could produce an outflow boundary that will trigger another round of SHRA/TSRA late tonight or early Monday morning for KPRC-KSEX-KFLG-KINW between 9Z and 18Z. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty/erratic wind possible in heavier SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise, look for south to southwest winds at 5-15 kts, with variable or terrain wind-driven winds overnight. OUTLOOK...Monday 24/18Z through Wednesday 26/18Z...Expect mainly VFR conditions. Scattered afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA Monday, with coverage decreasing to isolated by Tuesday. Outside of gusty/erratic outflow driven winds, look for daytime winds mainly southwest to west 5-15 kts. Light and variable winds at night. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Expect daily chances for showers/thunderstorms, with the greatest coverage across the higher terrain. Activity will ramp up around midday then continue through the evening hours both days. Outside of gusty and erratic storm driven winds, look for variable winds generally 10 mph or less. Tuesday through Thursday...Drier conditions will gradually return, with activity becoming limited to the White Mountains by Wednesday and Thursday. Daytime highs are forecast to become quite hot, reaching 10-15 degrees above normal. Look for southwest winds 5-15 mph each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...RR AVIATION...Schank FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  000 FXUS63 KFSD 231938 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 238 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms should be a bit more widespread tonight (50- 70%). Locally heavy rain and isolated severe storms are possible. Coverage and intensity have been trending down a bit however. - Monday evening and night could see an isolated severe storm, with the better chances in central SD and also near highway 14. - Otherwise most days through next week will see highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A pair of waves are affecting the area, or nearby, today. The first is moving southeast through Nebraska and is keeping any instability to the south and west bottled up. Model soundings not hinting at a whole lot of activity this afternoon, with a fairly dry and stable air mass in place. Tonight a second wave will pass by to the north and will swing a little bit of mid level moisture into the area. As this moisture moves in, some weak elevated instability, likely 500-750 J/kg CAPE develops. This will support some scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity, but for now severe weather looks unlikely. A few pockets of heavier rain are also possible, but also trending downward. Monday will see temperatures warm a bit with humidity likely to increase as well. This is in response to strengthening southerly flow as a stronger wave moves east along the Canadian border. This will increase instability, especially to the northwest of the area, and should bring scattered thunderstorms to parts of central SD and near the highway 14 corridor. With the potential for about 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE and decent unidirectional shear, and isolated severe storm will be possible in these locations. One area to watch will be near northwest IA late Monday afternoon and evening where there are some hints the cap could weaken a bit as elevated moisture advection bring some instability to that area. Low confidence, but something to monitor. Northwest flow aloft Tuesday into the weekend will keep seasonally warm temperatures in place with highs in the 80s and lows from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Starting to see a little more consistency on the next better chance for showers and thunderstorms on Friday. The latest Canadian, GEFS and EC ensembles all indicate about a 30-5- percent chance for a tenth of an inch or more of precipitation. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The main concern this TAF period will be the chance for showers and storms. While isolated to scattered, the better chances will be from about 3z to 12z with the better chances south of I-90. With any thunderstorms and near any thunderstorms, brief MVFR conditions will be possible. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...08  046 FXUS65 KFGZ 231939 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1239 PM MST Sun Aug 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Moderate monsoon activity will continue through Monday, mainly along the higher terrain during the afternoon and evening hours. Then, as high pressure builds over Arizona, hot weather and a decline in storm activity is expected to develop as the flow of moisture northward into the region diminishes. && .DISCUSSION...Upper-air analysis shows the 500mb subtropical high pressure cell centered across central New Mexico, with a northeastward-moving shortwave trough draped across the Yavapai and Coconino County border. This system is actively supporting showers and thunderstorms across western Yavapai and Coconino Counties, while aiding convective initiation along portions of the Mogollon Rim. Moderate monsoon conditions persist today with storms drifting northeastward on average. The forecast favors high-terrain locations, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms between 30-60% in the mountains. However, mid-level warming is limiting deep atmospheric instability, keeping the threat for severe weather low. Given the presence of slow-moving storms, there is a low to medium risk for flash flooding. This threat is tempered by atmospheric moisture (precipitable water) values ranging from 0.75-0.85 inches north of the Mogollon Rim and 0.85-1.15 inches south of the Rim. Outflow wind gusts between 35-45 mph are possible in the vicinity of storms. Storm activity is forecast to decline after sunset. High- resolution model guidance indicates overnight showers and thunderstorms may move into the region from the south, impacting areas west of a Payson to Flagstaff to Page line. Similar convective coverage is forecast on Monday, though a surge of moisture northward from the Gulf of California will likely shift the main axis of high storm coverage into Coconino and Yavapai Counties, with more isolated activity expected elsewhere. By mid-to-late week, guidance generally agrees that the subtropical high pressure circulation will strengthen over Arizona. This will introduce more stable atmospheric conditions and a noticeable downturn in storm coverage, leaving only low- grade monsoon activity through the remainder of the week. Temperatures are forecast to warm during this period, with daytime temperatures approaching 10 degrees above normal across much of the area. Excessive Heat products may become necessary for lower elevation areas, including portions of Yavapai County and Grand Canyon country. && .AVIATION...Sunday 23/18Z through Monday 24/18Z....Mainly VFR conditions. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA starting to develop at 18Z and continuing through at least 03Z. There is the potential that SHRA/TSRA in south-central AZ could produce an outflow boundary that will trigger another round of SHRA/TSRA late tonight or early Monday morning for KPRC-KSEX-KFLG-KINW between 9Z and 18Z. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty/erratic wind possible in heavier SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise, look for south to southwest winds at 5-15 kts, with variable or terrain wind-driven winds overnight. OUTLOOK...Monday 24/18Z through Wednesday 26/18Z...Expect mainly VFR conditions. Scattered afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA Monday, with coverage decreasing to isolated by Tuesday. Outside of gusty/erratic outflow driven winds, look for daytime winds mainly southwest to west 5-15 kts. Light and variable winds at night. && .FIRE WEATHER...Rest of today through Tuesday...Expect daily chances for showers/thunderstorms, with the greatest coverage across the higher terrain. Activity will ramp up around midday then continue through the evening hours. Drier conditions are possible starting Tuesday, with low-grade monsoonal conditions developing. Outside of gusty and erratic storm driven winds, look for southwest to west winds generally 10 mph or less during the day and variable at night. Wednesday through Friday...Drier, low-grade monsoonal conditions will likely continue, with activity becoming more limited to the White Mountains. Daytime highs are forecast to become quite hot, reaching up to 10-15 degrees above normal. Look for southwest winds 5-15 mph each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...RR AVIATION...Schank FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  175 FXUS64 KCRP 231942 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 242 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM - Major to Extreme risk of heat-related impacts continue into next week with peak afternoon heat indices around 110 to 115 - Daily elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A high that is located around the Four Corners region, will meander south-southeastwards slightly through the week. This will promote very dry rain free conditions outside of occasional isolated seabreeze convection daily. Heat indices will be up to 113 today once again. This is expected to persist through the week. Therefore we will continue to monitor for short- fused heat related products. We could see heat indices near 115 by midweek. This translates to moderate to predominately major HeatRisk conditions, though some areas of extreme HeatRisk will be possible in the Brush Country. We strongly encourage the practice of heat safety in these conditions. Take frequent breaks and remember to stay hydrated, check those backseats, and avoid long exposure in these temperatures. For more information be sure to check out weather.gov/heatsafety. With the presence of high ERCs and low relative humidity values across inland South Texas, elevated fire weather conditions will be expected today. Due to this a Fire Danger Statement was issued through 10 PM tonight. Though winds are expected to be light, fires will be able to be easily ignited. Late this week, guidance is hinting at the potential for a disturbance to sneak around the eastern periphery of the ridge. This could combine with some returning moisture to provide some relief. We will hold our breath on this possibility due to it being still too far out. In the meantime, stay cool everyone! && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through much of the TAF cycle with the exception of MVFR conditions at ALI and VCT briefly Monday morning. S-SE 10-15 knots gusting to around 20 knots occasionally will decrease this evening below 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Light to moderate (BF 2-4) onshore breezes will continue through the period, with occasional fresh (BF 5) breezes possible during the late afternoon/evening hours, especially south of Port Aransas. Seas are expected to remain around 2-3 feet. Rain chances will remain near zero through the middle of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 125 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ERC values are in the 75-89th percentile, with low humidity, dry to critically dry fuels, and hot temperatures, leading to elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country and portions of the Coastal Plains. Conditions will need to be closely monitored as a few locations across the Brush Country could even see critical fire weather conditions into next week. Considered an RFD for today; however, the winds should remain low enough to forego this. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 96 77 96 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 75 102 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 78 105 78 106 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 73 102 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 81 93 81 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 75 105 76 105 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 75 100 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 81 91 81 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ230>234-241>247- 342>344-346-347. GM...None. && $$DISCUSSION...NP/92 AVIATION...NP/92  188 FXUS66 KMTR 231942 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1242 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1237 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Near to slightly below normal temperatures persist in the marine layer this week - Warm and dry conditions continue above 1000 feet && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1237 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 (This evening through Monday night) Not too much change in the forecast today as the Bay Area and Central Coast remain in between an upper level trough to the north and a ridge over the Desert Southwest. Ridging remains more dominant through this evening before the center of the ridge shifts eastward early Monday and troughing becomes more dominant over the region. High temperatures are forecast to peak in the upper 80s to low 90s across the interior with far interior Monterey County reaching the low 100s. Coastal areas are benefiting from a shallow (~1000 foot) marine layer that brought patchy stratus and drizzle to the coast and the SF Bay shoreline. This will keep temperatures cooler in coastal areas with highs peaking in the 60s to low 70s. Heading into Monday, the center of the upper level ridge will shift eastward with troughing becoming the dominant feature over us. The return of troughing will help the marine layer to (slightly) deepen and bring it from approximately 1000 ft to 1200-1500 ft. A slightly deeper marine layer will allow for a greater inland intrusion of stratus, but, stratus is not likely to be as widespread as it was last week. Temperatures are expected to drop by around 5 degrees for most interior locations. This will see a return of highs in the low to mid 80s while the higher elevations above the marine layer will stay comparatively warmer in the upper 80s to low 90s. Coastal areas will remain in the 60s to low 70s with additional periods of coastal drizzle likely during the early morning hours. The one questionable part of the forecast is if any thunderstorms will be able to develop across the North Bay Interior Mountains (particularly Napa County) early Monday morning. The Euro suggests that there will be sufficient moisture, instability, and lift as a weak shortwave trough moves in to California for orographically driven thunderstorms to develop there early Monday morning. NBM guidance gives around a 5% chance of thunderstorms developing. Any precipitation that falls would likely be virga/evaporate before reaching the surface given model Skew-T soundings showing a large dry layer between the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere. Confidence remains low overall in storm development, however, as other models (GFS, NAM, HRRR, RRFS) do not support storms developing tomorrow morning with the Euro being an outlier. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1237 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 (Tuesday through next Saturday) Troughing prevails through Tuesday with high temperatures remaining in the 60s to 70s along the coast, 80s across the interior, upper 80s to low 90s across the higher elevations, and upper 90s to low 100s across the interior Central Coast. Stratus is expected along the coast and portions of the SF Bay shoreline but continues to be limited in extent. The center of the upper level ridge shifts back westwards Wednesday to Thursday with high temperatures warming by around 5 degrees across the interior (largely returning temperatures to the upper 80s to 90s). Friday into the weekend, temperatures cool by a few degrees as ridging weakens and troughing deepens/strengthens over the Pacific. Troughing looks to continue into next week with a deep upper level low moving into the Pacific Northwest and Northern California. It will be worth keeping an eye on this incoming trough and the arrival of any potential tropical moisture towards the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC guidance shows three active areas of tropical interest offshore of Mexico with recently named TS Iselle in the vicnity as well. Guidance is starting to indicate some tropical moisture from these systems may be brought north as the trough arrives but it is unclear how far north this tropical moisture will go. Some models keep it more over Southern California while others bring it up into Monterey/San Benito counties. Models are already showing an increase in southerly swell associated with the uptick in tropical activity across the Eastern Pacific this weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Widespread VFR conditions prevail through much of the afternoon with gentle to moderate onshore breezes. IFR stratus will linger at HAF into the early afternoon as the mixing of dry air continues along the coast. The marine layer is expected to remain compressed around 1000 to 1200 feet tonight which will limit its inland expansion. High confidence for IFR to LIFR ceilings to develop at the coast with potential reductions to visibility. Medium confidence on STS developing IFR ceilings given the lack of weak offshore winds aloft. Overall, the wind flow above the marine layer will remain onshore through the TAF period. Despite this, medium confidence on whether APC will develop a ceiling given the shallow marine layer. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the day with onshore winds settling in this afternoon. Medium confidence on low-end MVFR ceilings developing at the terminals early Monday morning. Given the prominent onshore flow and shallow marine layer, a later stratus arrival is anticipated (09-12Z Monday). VFR conditions should prevail by late Monday morning. SFO Bridge Approach...Cloud cover overnight may be patchy over the San Mateo bridge as stratus coverage is not expected to travel far south into the Santa Clara valley. Otherwise, similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Northwest winds prevail at SNS through the TAF period meanwhile MRY remains more west to southwest. Gentle to moderate winds increase through the afternoon before easing and becoming variable overnight. Medium confidence for an earlier onset of stratus this evening around sunset with IFR-LIFR ceilings. Reductions to visibility due to mist are possible overnight with the compressed marine layer. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 920 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Northwest winds remain moderate through Sunday and gradually ease to gentle breezes through the middle of next week before increasing again. The northern outer waters will continue to experience near gale force gusts into the evening. Wind driven seas remain slight to moderate entering the work week. Reduced visibility due to smoke from the Timber Fire is expected along the Big Sur coast as the marine inversion holds through the morning. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Navarrete MARINE...Navarrete Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  359 FXUS64 KOUN 231945 CCA AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Norman OK 245 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 220 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Excessive heat continues into early next week. - Strong to severe storms are possible Monday morning across north central Oklahoma and along the I-40 corridor Monday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts are the main hazard. - Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas Monday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Hot and humid conditions are ongoing across Oklahoma and north Texas this afternoon with the most dangerous heat across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon. A few high-based thunderstorms may develop across the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles this afternoon with a chance that the remnants of the activity will move into northwest Oklahoma this evening. For tonight, increasing isentropic ascent/warm air advection associated with the low-level jet will result in showers and thunderstorms developing across Kansas, Missouri, and northeast Oklahoma after midnight. The I-35 corridor in Oklahoma will on the southwest/western periphery of the strongest ascent with the potential for isolated development as far southwest as south central Oklahoma. Strong to low-end severe thunderstorms are possible, especially across north central Oklahoma. Mahale && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A surface low and attendant cold front will advance southeast into Oklahoma on Monday. The location of the cold front/surface low could be impacted by the morning showers and thunderstorms and whether convective outflow, post-frontal clouds, and/or rain advance the effective cold front farther to the south. The cold front will likely be very close to the I-40 corridor with the potential for a sharp north-to-south temperature gradient somewhere in that zone. For example, the most aggressive model with the cold front is the 12Z NAM with abundant post-frontal cloud cover. As a result, it has a high temperature of 96 deg F in Oklahoma City. In contrast, the National Blend of Models (NBM) has 108 deg F with Oklahoma City in the pre-frontal torch ahead of the front. For those who live in north central Oklahoma (i.e., near Ponca City), we have high confidence that you will be on the cooler side of the front. If you live in western north Texas, (i.e., near Wichita Falls, Seymour, Vernon, Knox City, etc.), we have high confidence you will be on the hot side of the front. It is the middle/I-40 corridor where uncertainty is the highest. Given the uncertainty on the exact location of the cold front, we opted to keep the location for the Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory relatively small for tomorrow afternoon. For now, we issued an Extreme Heat Warning across all of western north Texas into parts of southwest Oklahoma. To the north of Extreme Heat Warning, we issued a Heat Advisory for a row or two of counties. These are the locations that we have the highest confidence to meet Heat Advisory and/or Extreme Heat Warning criteria. We may have to expand both products farther north depending on the location of the cold front tomorrow. There is the potential for isolated thunderstorms along the cold front tomorrow afternoon. Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing strong to wind gusts from downbursts given the very hot conditions ahead of the front. With the veered low-level flow and very hot temperatures ahead of the cold front tomorrow, relative humidity values are forecast to fall to around 15 to 20% across southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas. This will result in elevated fire weather conditions to perhaps locally near-critical fire weather conditions (depending on the winds). With the ongoing drought and very dry fuels, the total fire environment (weather + fuels) will be susceptible to at least initial attack fires. Therefore, at the very least, a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) will be needed once again tomorrow. A Red Flag Warning (RFW) could be needed if there is a corridor of higher fire weather conditions. One area that will have to be monitored carefully is near the location of the cold front, where there will be a wind shift and the potential for isolated thunderstorms that would pose a threat for gusty/erratic winds and dry lightning. For Tuesday, there will likely still be a north-to-south temperature gradient with the cold front likely stalling in the area. The hottest temperatures will continue to be across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas with less hot conditions across northern Oklahoma. By Tuesday night, a complex of thunderstorms is expected to approach from the northwest. The remnants of this complex may produce a threat for strong to severe wind gusts across northwest Oklahoma. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 As the second shortwave moves across the area on Wednesday, not out of the question to see a few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms. Latest medium range model runs of both the GFS and ECMWF show the upper ridge drifting further southwest as we go through the second half of the upcoming week. This will allow modest northwest flow to continue through the end of the week and possibly into the weekend with periodic shortwave troughs traversing the Southern Plains and at least some rain chances continue. With this retrogression of the upper ridge, it should allow temperatures to cool from the peak of the heating that will be see earlier in the week. However, it still appears that above normal temperatures will continue. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through the period. Scattered showers and storms with gusty winds and briefly reduced visibilities are possible across northern OK this evening and into early Monday morning. Otherwise, expect dry conditions with south/southeast winds tonight. Winds will veer Monday morning, becoming northwesterly across northwest OK, and southwesterly across southern and central portions of OK and across western north TX as a surface low moves eastward. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 78 105 77 102 / 10 20 20 10 Hobart OK 80 111 77 106 / 0 20 20 10 Wichita Falls TX 82 111 81 109 / 0 0 10 10 Gage OK 75 100 71 99 / 20 0 20 10 Ponca City OK 72 96 72 96 / 30 10 0 10 Durant OK 79 108 79 107 / 0 10 20 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005-006-009>012- 014>020-023>032-040>042. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ021-022- 033>039-043>048-050>052. Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ033-036- 037-044-045. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ034-035-038- 039-041-046>048-050>052. TX...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090. Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...10 SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...08  448 FXUS61 KOKX 231946 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 346 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Continued chances for showers and thunderstorms into early evening ahead of a cold frontal passage. Some thunderstorms could have strong wind gusts with a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. 2) Chance of showers for both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Isolated thunderstorm possible for Monday. Severe weather impacts are not expected. 3) More chances of showers and thunderstorms for Thursday and Friday. Low confidence in potential impacts at this time. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Cold front and shortwave will provide lift this afternoon into early evening. This will combine with weak capping and sufficient MLCAPEs for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms until shortly after sundown. Strong to locally severe wind gusts would be the main impact. Looks like chances are limited to parts of NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley area, and into SW CT. Might need to extend chances for both showers and thunderstorms farther south, but will go with a dry forecast for the southern zones dry for now and monitor radar trends. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Cold pool aloft with longwave troughing will be over the region for both Monday and Tuesday. Both afternoons could see instability showers for parts of the Lower Hudson Valley and Southern Connecticut, and with slightly more CAPE and perhaps slightly steeper lapse rates, there could be an isolated rumble of thunder for Monday. NBM kept all areas dry both days, but have gone with slight chc PoPs for both afternoons. Severe wx not expected, but a strong gust could be possible on Monday. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Global models show a weak wave of low pressure approaching from our SW on Thursday and passing nearby or through the forecast area during Friday. Too early to have high confidence in potential impacts, but will need to keep an eye on trends for severe wx and flooding. At least isolated thunder would be around based on the track of storm, and at least minor flooding would be possible with an increase of PWATs. Time frame for greatest chance of impacts would be Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front moves through today, before high pressure builds from the west Monday. A few isolated showers north and west of NYC terminals could lead to brief MVFR conditions, mainly for KHPN and KSWF. Chances for this lower by early evening. Otherwise, VFR through the TAF period. WSW or SW winds through the rest of today, speeds generally around 10 kt or less, though gusts up to 20 kt are possible at some terminals. Winds lighten this evening, with similar flow expected on Monday. Gusts Monday afternoon likely a bit stronger than today, as high as 20 to 25 kt. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts this afternoon may be more occasional. A few gusts late Monday afternoon could approach 30 kt. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Monday PM: VFR. WSW gusts 20-25 kt. Tuesday: VFR. WSW gusts 15-20 kt. Wednesday: VFR. Light WSW/SW winds. Thursday-Friday: VFR Thu AM, becoming sub VFR with SHRA/TSRA. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Conditions on the marine zones are still expected to remain below small craft advisory thresholds during the marine forecast period. Pressure gradient overall remains relatively weak. Rip Currents: A moderate risk is expected for both today and Monday. The swell will be primarily from the SE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...DR MARINE...JC  424 FXUS63 KDTX 231945 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 345 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy and cooler conditions arrive today with scattered showers into tonight. - Dry weather Monday into Tuesday with a warming trend. The next chance of showers and storms is possible late Wednesday and Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Stacked low pressure system spinning just to our east over southern Ontario will lift northeast into Quebec overnight. We're dealing with cold advection on the backside of the low today with a strong mid level wave passing over this afternoon before the low finally departs. Atmosphere utilizing the low level moisture one last time this afternoon with a round of scattered showers before ridging pushes in and dries out the mid levels ending precip chances later this evening. SPC Mesoanalysis shows around 250 J/kg of CAPE mainly in the Thumb with a band of low level convergence stretching from MBS to PHN. This has been enough to generate some showers in the area. Weak mid level lapse rates and little instability should help minimize much of any lightning. Cool night in store as dewpoints have already fallen to around 50 and even the mid 40s across northern MI. Once the diurnal clouds mix out we should clear out for the most part. Questionable area will be the eastern Thumb where the cloud shield from the upper low continues to reach back toward the area. Clouds would help hold those temps up a few degrees if the clouds never release. Surface high builds in tonight for Monday and Tuesday while upper level heights also inch upwards. We'll keep the northwesterly flow Monday helping to hold highs temps on the cool side again in the mid 70s, but the ridge axis passes on Tuesday allowing for some warmer return flow to get us back up toward 80. Next trough affect the region mid week with a warm front pushing north of the area Tuesday evening tied to a low passing through the northern Great Lakes. Upper level waves start ejecting out of the trough over the region Wednesday leading to increasing chances of rainfall before the main trough axis and cold front sweep through early Thursday. && .MARINE... Post-frontal breezy northwest flow will persist through tomorrow as cooler air is ushered into the Great Lakes. Wind gusts ranging between 20 to 30 knots are expected during this window, along with some isolated gust potential to 35 knots through this evening, focused mainly across north-central and central Lake Huron. Given the lower confidence for any longer duration gale potential, will continue to preclude any issuance of gale products. Increasing coverage of rain showers will be likely tonight into tomorrow morning across Lake Huron, including a very low chance for waterspouts along any convergence axis. High pressure will then begin building into the Great Lakes Monday evening, centering over the region by Tuesday. This will diminish wind speeds tomorrow night, leading to light winds by Tuesday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 AVIATION... Low pressure continues to occlude over the Ontario/Quebec border, with cyclonic gradient flow on the backside of the low peaking around 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Wrap-around moisture pairs with lake moisture flux to support low VFR ceilings through most of the TAF period as well. Isolated shower coverage peaks through the diurnal cycle followed by a window of decreasing cloud coverage to SCT-FEW this evening. A second pool of moisture over central Ontario releases south tonight into Monday, bringing another opportunity for low VFR cigs. The airspace will be on the outer edge of the moisture gradient meaning fluctuations in coverage will be possible throughout the day. Otherwise, breezy west-northwest winds and dry conditions expected Monday. D21/DTW Convection... very low potential for an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Moderate to high for ceiling 5000 feet or less today and tonight. * Very low for an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday afternoon for MIZ049. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for LHZ421-441>443. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for LHZ422. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DRK MARINE.......AM AVIATION.....MV You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  616 FXUS63 KBIS 231952 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 252 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over western and south central North Dakota this afternoon and evening. Potential hazards include hail up to the size of ping pong balls, damaging winds up to 70 mph, and torrential downpours. - Isolated severe thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon and evening primarily over central and eastern North Dakota. Potential hazards include large hail up to 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds up to 70 mph, but still some question if thunderstorms can develop. - Near-critical fire weather conditions expected over parts of western North Dakota on Monday, and the far southwest on Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Current surface analysis places trough stretching from western Saskatchewan through eastern Montana/Wyoming, with high over the midwest. Upper level analysis places high over New Mexico, with ridge stretching northward to the lee of the Rockies into the Plains. Over our area, low level moisture continues to be on the increase with south-southeasterly low level flow between the two aforementioned surface features. A line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms continues to slid through western North Dakota affiliated with a short wave trough noted in the flow. For the rest of this afternoon into this evening, a tricky forecast is on tap as some variable remain in play. It has been well advertised that with the returning moisture we will have an unstable atmosphere in place, particularly over southwest into south central North Dakota with CAPE values in excess of 2000 J/Kg already at this time over a broad part of the area, and that plenty of deep layer shear in in place (40-50 kts 0-6km) to support rotating updrafts. With that said, the flies in the ointment continue to be rather modest forcing, along with forecast sounding showing a cap that may be difficult to overcome. Latest short term guidance continues to show a variety of solutions ranging from some light showers/a few weak storms to a variety of severe over the southwest and south central, possible nudging northward. So, the severe threat will remain conditional, but if a storm or storms were able to get going in earnest, large hail and damaging wind gusts remain a concern given the aforementioned shear/instability. A secondary wave pushes in from Montana later tonight, which may lead to some additional elevated storms, which would move through overnight. On Monday, surface trough to the west pushes over western North Dakota in the morning, into central North Dakota before stalling mid-day. Behind the trough, drier air will move in with breezy conditions developing, which will lead to some near-critical fire weather conditions over the far west. Ahead of the trough, moist air remains in place. CAPE values will again be elevated over this area, along with similar deep layer shear as today. Again, though, the threat remains conditional as to whether enough forcing will be in place in order for storms to develop. On Tuesday, quiet weather is expected as the ridge axis re- focuses over the Rockies, though a compact low/short wave will zip through southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba which may lead to a few showers or possibly a thunderstorm around the Turtle Mountains region. Northwest winds will be on the increase as the surface low with this system moves east through Manitoba into Ontario. Upper ridge gradually meanders east resulting in quiet weather for us through Thursday before a few weak waves move through the ridge, bringing some low precipitation chances to end the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Thunderstorm chances will spread from west to east this afternoon and evening. A few severe storms with large hail or damaging wind gusts will be possible mid-afternoon through early this evening, mainly over southwest and south central North Dakota. Some storms may linger overnight, with a few showers and storms again entering from Montana, pushing east into Monday morning. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...JJS  799 FXPQ50 PGUM 231957 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 557 AM ChST Mon Aug 24 2026 .Marianas Update... An unsettled, but disorganized monsoon pattern continues to bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Marianas this week, with showers becoming numerous and locally heavy at times. Model guidance shows a slight southward nudge in the monsoon trough, where the nearby col shifts closer to Tinian and Saipan later today. Showers and convectively-driven gusts become more focused across Guam and Rota today and tonight, with the peak in numerous locally heavy showers roughly timed between this afternoon and midnight. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through this afternoon. A High Surf Advisory and High Risk of Rip Currents along west-facing reefs continue through this afternoon as well, potentially extending through tonight. && .Tropical Systems Update... Typhoon Saudel continues to move west-northwest at about 18 mph, away from the Marianas and is passing southwest of Iwo To. Saudel is located near 23N138E, about 190 miles southwest of Iwo To, and is expected to maintain this general course with a slight decrease in forward speed through Tuesday. With this general track, Saudel is forecast to move north of 25N and exit our region on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain at 125 mph. Saudel is forecast to maintain this intensity through Tuesday, remaining a typhoon. For more information on Typhoon Saudel (17W), please refer to the Tropical Cyclone Warning from JTWC under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW, and the TC Public Advisory from the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM. Tropical Depression 19W is located near 14N136E, about 331 miles north-northwest of Yap and about 482 miles north-northeast of Koror. 19W is moving east-northeast at around 8 mph and is expected to make a turn toward the north-northeast with a slight increase in forward speed through Tuesday. 19W continues to move away from Yap and Palau and remains well west of the Marianas. Maximum sustained winds remain at 35 mph. 19W is forecast to maintain this intensity through Tuesday. For more information on Tropical Depression 19W, please refer to the Tropical Cyclone Warning from JTWC under WMO header WTPN33 PGTW, and the TC Public Advisory from the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ33 PGUM. && .Eastern Micronesia Update... A Small Craft Advisory was issued for Majuro through this afternoon. Overnight scatterometry showed moderate to strong (15 to 25 kt) south to southwesterly winds across Majuro and to the south. These stronger winds and gusts are tied to an area of enhanced convergence that is expected to shift northwest over the course of today, with winds subsiding below hazardous levels of 22 kt in the afternoon. Otherwise, the only change in the forecast was to delay numerous locally heavy showers at Kosrae to the afternoon and included occasional, convectively-driven gusts to 25 kt to today's forecast for Pohnpei and Kosrae. && .Western Micronesia Update... The Small Craft Advisory for Yap coastal waters was allowed to expire earlier this morning. Overnight altimetry and recent buoy data indicate that seas have fallen below hazardous levels of 10 feet. As Tropical Depression 19W continues to move farther away to the north, 15 to 20 kt southwest winds trend down to 10 to 15 kt Tuesday. Mariners should still exercise caution as combined seas of 7 to 9 feet persist through tonight, mainly across northern waters. Deep convection tied to the monsoon tail following Tropical Depression 19W remains near but will keep northwest of Yap and Palau, especially as 19W continues moving away and possibly weakening. No major changes were needed for the forecast, infrared satellite imagery shows scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across much of the region this morning, with convection deepening towards eastern Chuuk State, associated with strengthening west to northwesterly convergence across eastern Micronesia. && .Prev discussion... /issued 1117 PM ChST Sun Aug 23 2026/ Marianas Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows high-end scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Marianas coastal waters. Model guidance suggests combined seas of 7 to 9 ft. Discussion... The Marianas is located within an unstable weather pattern due to Typhoon Saudel's (17W) monsoonal tail, cross-equatorial flow, and a col to the east-northeast. Scattered showers today have steadily increased to numerous across coastal waters, which will eventually make its way over the islands before midnight. Gentle to moderate southwesterlies with strong, convective gusts are expected at least through Monday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring and will persist possibly through the rest of the week. There is uncertainty regarding timing and intensity of heavy showers on Monday, so the forecast reflects a 60 percent chance of showers. The previously anticipated wet period starting on Tuesday looks to be delayed a day or two, with flooding and mudslide potential most likely in the latter half of the week. The forecast reflects the slight lull in shower activity midweek before picking back up by the weekend. Marine... Combined seas of 7 to 9 ft tonight will increase to 8 to 10 ft tomorrow, so the previously issued Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Monday afternoon. In addition, strong, convective gusts associated with heavy showers will give way to choppy seas. A long-period southwesterly swell from Tropical Depression 19W (located well to the west) will induce hazardous surf after tonight, and allow the high risk of rip currents to remain along west-facing reefs. There is a moderate risk of lightning throughout the week. Hydrology... A reinvigorated monsoon trough with a potential embedded tropical disturbance will likely develop in the area and bring periods of heavy rainfall to the Marianas starting midweek. Between Wednesday and Friday, early ensemble guidance suggests 4 to 6 inches with a low probability of up to 10 inches for Guam and Rota, and 3 to 5 inches with a low probability of up to 8 inches for Saipan and Tinian. Heavy showers will moisten soils throughout the event and increase potential for mudslides. Residents of the Marianas need to closely monitor this developing situation as flood watches, advisories and flash flood warnings could be issued later in the week. Tropical Systems... Typhoon Saudel (17W) is centered near 22N140E, moving northwest at 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 125 mph near the center, with this intensity persisting through Monday. Saudel is expected to make a slight turn toward the west-northwest with little change in forward speed through Monday as it heads toward Okinawa. Tropical Depression 19W is centered near 14N136E, moving east- northeast at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds remain at 35 mph near the center, with this intensity persisting through Monday, remaining a Tropical Depression. TD 19W is to expected to continue to move into a a favorable environment while pivoting toward departing TY Saudel well to the north-northeast, with some resemblance of a distant Fujiwara Effect. This is expected to help further prime the environment around the Marianas for another enhancement in the monsoon or potentially a weaker tropical disturbance to develop in the area, bringing in another period of heavy rainfall to the region later this week (more details in the Hydrology Section). For more information on Typhoon Saudel (17W), please refer to the Tropical Cyclone Warning from JTWC under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW,and the TC Public Advisory from the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM. For more information on Tropical Depression 19W, please refer to the Tropical Cyclone Warning from JTWC under WMO header WTPN33 PGTW, and the TC Public Advisory from the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ33 PGUM. Eastern Micronesia... Pohnpei and Kosrae - short term: The main forecast challenge was determining rainfall coverage/potential through the first 36 hours. Currently, fairly persistent shower activity has been ongoing for the past few hours. However, recent infrared satellite imager shows rapid warming of cloud top temperatures, while visible imager in addition to infrared overcast skies. This is often a "stratification effect" after a prolonged period of heavier showers and thunderstorm occurrence. Thus, it's highly likely that some high cloud-based light rainfall continues from the a modest directional and speed shear environment (based on the Pohnpei sounding and pattern recognition in the numerical forecast guidance). Typically, this "stable bubble" persists for 6 to 10 hours. With this in mind, we do expect increased shower activity to redevelop, and this was reflected in tonight's forecast. The thought of adding "after midnight wording" was strongly considered, for conveying when the best rainfall potential would occur. However, good speed convergence in the low-level streamline analysis, along with recent development south of Kosrae, precluded this decision. Majuro - short term: Majuro too involved a little bit of a tricky forecast tonight and tomorrow. as the best convergence and attendant convective development is south and east of you per satellite imagery. However, short term forecast guidance strongly suggests this backbuilding line of convection will slide north with time, potentially even before midnight. This is supported in the latest satellite imagery as well. Thus we precluded any more specific temporal refinement to the forecast. Extended outlook for all three locations (36 hours to day 7): Forecast guidance and pattern recognition all points to at least scattered shower potential continuing into next weekend, with a few thunderstorms mixed in from time to time. A tropical disturbance/circulation located east of Pohnpei/northeast of Kosrae will not only maintain respectable convergence in the cyclonically- enhanced monsoon flow, but there may be a few periods of locally increased shower coverage and intensity. Marine and surf conditions: A west to southwest primary and secondary swell will continue through the weekend at Pohnpei and Kosrae, with a slight backing of swell direction due to the previously-mentioned cyclonic flow in the monsoon environment, will allow for a southwest and south swell direction to continue at Majuro. This swell regime will continue to be augmented by the persistent cross-equatorial flow/swell pattern. The net result is elevated surf concerns will continue the next several days at Kosrae and Majuro as well. Otherwise, mainly gentle to light winds currently, may become light to gentle from time to time, especially for the latter half of next week. Seas of 5 to 7 feet are anticipated through the forecast period. Western Micronesia... As Typhoon Saudel well northwest of the Marianas and Tropical Depression 19W north-northwest of Yap continue to move away from the region, the last pulse of a fresh to strong southwesterly monsoon is expected to bring more patchy showers Yap tonight. While winds are expected to diminish slightly thereafter, a reigniting monsoon surge is still expected to pummel Yap and much of eastern Yap State the next several days, with a peak shower and thunder coverage expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. A tropical ridge anchored just north of the Equator is expected to bring a dry spell to Palau beginning Monday night, which is likely to last for the rest of the week. While moist westerlies are expected to continue at Chuuk for most of the forecast period, the aforementioned tropical ridge will allow Chuuk to fall in between the convectively active pattern hugging 10N and the much quieter sector of the Equator between Indonesia and Kapingamarangi. This will allow patchy showers and some thunderstorms to form at Chuuk for much of the forecast period, followed by a drying trend in the second half of next week as a larger buffer circulation induces more diffusive flow. The aforementioned monsoon pulse and remaining significant southwesterly swells and fresh to strong winds continues to produce sea conditions hazardous to small craft, which are expected to fall below hazardous criteria by sunrise on Monday. In the meantime, combined seas of 5 to 7 feet in Palau waters are expected to taper down a few feet over the next few days as the southwesterly swell diminishes, being slowly replenished by various smaller northerly swells building in. Combined seas of 5 to 7 feet are expected to slowly drop a foot or two toward the next weekend as swells and localized wind waves diminish. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for GUZ001. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for GUZ001. MP...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for MPZ001>003. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for MPZ001>003. Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM ChST this afternoon for PMZ151>154. && $$ Marianas/East and West Micronesia/Tropical Update: Cruz Marianas/Hydrology: Mesa East Micronesia: Doll West Micronesia/Tropical: Montvila  753 FXUS63 KBIS 231956 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 256 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over western and south central North Dakota this afternoon and evening. Potential hazards include hail up to the size of ping pong balls, damaging winds up to 70 mph, and torrential downpours. - Isolated severe thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon and evening primarily over central and eastern North Dakota. Potential hazards include large hail up to 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds up to 70 mph, but still some question if thunderstorms can develop. - Near-critical fire weather conditions expected over parts of western North Dakota on Monday, and the far southwest on Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Current surface analysis places trough stretching from western Saskatchewan through eastern Montana/Wyoming, with high over the midwest. Upper level analysis places high over New Mexico, with ridge stretching northward to the lee of the Rockies into the Plains. Over our area, low level moisture continues to be on the increase with south-southeasterly low level flow between the two aforementioned surface features. A line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms continues to slide through western North Dakota affiliated with a short wave trough noted in the flow. For the rest of this afternoon into this evening, a tricky forecast is on tap as some variables remain in play. It has been well advertised that with the returning moisture we will have an unstable atmosphere in place, particularly over southwest into south central North Dakota where CAPE values are already in excess of 2000 J/Kg at this time over a broad part of the area, and that plenty of deep layer shear in in place (40-50 kts 0-6km) to support rotating updrafts. With that said, the flies in the ointment continue to be rather modest forcing, along with forecast soundings showing a cap that may be difficult to overcome. Latest short term guidance continues to show a variety of solutions ranging from some light showers/a few weak storms to a variety of severe over the southwest and south central, possible nudging northward. So, the severe threat will remain conditional, but if a storm or storms were able to get going in earnest, large hail and damaging wind gusts remain a concern given the aforementioned shear/instability. A secondary wave pushes in from Montana later tonight, which may lead to some additional elevated storms, which would move through overnight. On Monday, surface trough to the west pushes over western North Dakota in the morning, into central North Dakota before stalling mid-day. Behind the trough, drier air will move in with breezy conditions developing, which will lead to some near-critical fire weather conditions over the far west. Ahead of the trough, moist air remains in place. CAPE values will again be elevated over this area, along with similar deep layer shear as today. Again, though, the threat remains conditional as to whether enough forcing will be in place in order for storms to develop. On Tuesday, quiet weather is expected as the ridge axis re- focuses over the Rockies, though a compact low/short wave will zip through southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba which may lead to a few showers or possibly a thunderstorm around the Turtle Mountains region. Northwest winds will be on the increase as the surface low with this system moves east through Manitoba into Ontario. Upper ridge gradually meanders east resulting in quiet weather for us through Thursday before a few weak waves move through the ridge, bringing some low precipitation chances to end the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Thunderstorm chances will spread from west to east this afternoon and evening. A few severe storms with large hail or damaging wind gusts will be possible mid-afternoon through early this evening, mainly over southwest and south central North Dakota. Some storms may linger overnight, with a few showers and storms again entering from Montana, pushing east into Monday morning. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...JJS  741 FXUS63 KGID 231956 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 256 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another chance for scattered showers/storms returns to eastern portions of the forecast area tonight-Monday morning, mainly after midnight. Severe weather is not anticipated. - Additional thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast Monday night through Tuesday night...and there will be the potential for some storms to be strong-severe Tuesday evening and overnight. The entire forecast area remains in the SPC Day 3 Marginal/Slight Risk areas. Damaging wind gusts and large hail would be the primary hazards. - Off and on storm chances remain mid-week and through the weekend. - Temperatures experience a slight warming trend as the upper level pattern shifts starting Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Currently... An upper level shortwave disturbance sliding southeast across portions of the Central Plains has resulted in a damp end to the weekend for a good chunk of the forecast area today...with activity taking its sweet time pushing through eastern portions this afternoon. This disturbance is embedded in continued larger scale northwesterly flow...set up in a well amplified pattern across the CONUS. The main area of high pressure continues to sit over the Desert SW, with ridging extending northward through the Rockies...sandwiched between a large area of low pressure spinning over the Great Lakes with troughing dominating the East Coast, and another area of low pressure pushing east along the WA/Canada border. Outside of at times heavy rainfall rates, this activity hasn't amounted to a whole lot...as better instability has remained focused off to the west of the forecast area. Satellite imagery has shown the development of quite a range of cloud cover across the area...with mostly cloudy skies across the eastern half, more sun further west. This has resulted in mid-afternoon temps ranging from the mid 60s in the east to the low 80s in the far southwest...though those eastern areas still have the potential for late day highs if the cloud cover diminishes. At the surface, the forecast area sits between high pressure gradually working its way east and a deeper trough axis along the High Plains...bringing southeasterly winds this afternoon, at times gusting near 20 MPH. Tonight into Monday... For most locations, the forecast for this evening and tonight remains dry. Models continue to show the potential for at least scattered showers/storms developing late tonight (mainly around/after midnight) into the early morning hours on Monday...focused along the edge of a SSWrly low-level jet. Models remain consistent showing the best potential for this activity is across eastern portions of mainly our Nebraska counties...but vary some on just how far west coverage actually gets. Chances remain in the 20-40 percent range, with overall lift looking to be on the weaker side, currently not expecting notable coverage of activity. Not out of the question that a few storm could be on the strong side with MUCAPE potentially around 1500 j/kg, but the threat for severe weather continues to look low. Any activity that lingers into the daytime hours on Monday is expected to diminish by mid-morning...with the remainder of the day and at least part of the evening currently dry. Models showing little change in the overall upper level pattern, with the main high/ridging remaining over the Desert SW and Rockies. Forecast has lighter winds turning more easterly through the day, speeds topping out around 10-15 MPH. Expecting to have a bump up in afternoon highs, with generally mid 80s across central/eastern portions of our NE counties, with upper 80s-low 90s further south and west. Monday night into Tuesday... A little more uncertainty with preciptiation chances works its way back into the forecast late Monday evening into the overnight hours. Looking aloft, models showing that upper level low currently over WA/Canad having continued trekking ENE...ending up over south- central Canada by Monday evening. A southward extending sfc front (although on the weaker side) and shortwave energy looks to spark off afternoon thunderstorm development over portions of the Dakotas into the Sandhills...the main question then turning to how much of that activity works its way into our forecast area overnight. There are some notable differences between models...some showing little diminishment in activity as it moves in...others with notable waning with time. Made no changes to the NBM PoPs Monday night-Tuesday AM, which have a notable range from the 20 percent range in the ESE to 50-60 percent range further WNW. At this point, this activity is not expected to be severe. Some questions then linger through the daytime hours on Tuesday into evening/overnight...if activity does move in, how long into the day does it linger, and what impact could it have on the next expected round of thunderstorms to move through the region. Plenty of details to iron out in the next 48hrs...but additional shortwave energy is expected to fire off another round of thunderstorms off to our NW, but exactly where is a little uncertain at least partly due to where any sfc frontal boundaries may ultimately be/set up. There will be the potential for another MCS to sink SSE across the region...with models showing both better instability and shear developing to tap into. This will bring better potential for storms to be strong to severe...and the entire forecast area remains included in the SPC Day 3 Marginal/Slight risk areas, with the Slight risk area roughly from the Tri-Cities southwest-ward into western KS. Wednesday and on... Moving into Wednesday, the same overall pattern of ridging over the Rockies and troughing in the east holds in place with upper level northwest flow holding in place over the region. High temps stay consistent in the 80s on Wednesday and Thursday. Currently models are suggesting drier conditions on Wednesday with more storm potential beginning overnight into Thursday. However, as long as the northwest flow remains in place any shortwaves/disturbances through the pattern will bring potential for precip/storm development. Moving into Friday and the weekend, model guidance suggests a change in the upper level pattern as the ridging over the Rockies broadens into the plains creating a more zonal westerly flow, however a slight northwest component remains in place. A slight rise in the mid/upper level heights accompanies this pattern shift. With the rise in heights, a slight warming pattern occurs with high temps reaching into the mid 80s-low 90s on Friday before rising into the upper 80s-mid to upper 90s on Saturday/Sunday. While the northwest flow is not as strong, shortwaves and disturbances moving through this pattern continue to bring chances of convection, especially in the overnight hours. Models are not super consistent on which days have the best chance for storm development but the chance for storms will likely remain in place until the larger pattern breaks. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder will continue to be a concern at both terminal sites to start off this TAF period...looking to only linger a couple more hours. Dry conditions are expected by mid-late afternoon, lasting into the evening hours...and possibly the rest of this period. The concern for any additional precipitation chances lies mainly with the KGRI terminal after midnight. Models continue to show the potential for another round of scattered activity developing, with the better chances across north central and eastern portions of NE. There are difference between models with how far west the back edge of that activity gets...with some showing it not out of the question some could affect KGRI...so decided to go with a PROB30 group from 07-11Z. Upcoming forecasts will have new model data to see how things trend. As far as winds go, winds through the period look to be generally south- southeasterly. For the most part, speeds top out around 10-15 MPH, but some gusts closer to 20 MPH are not out of the question through this afternoon. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADP/McGrew AVIATION...ADP  881 FXUS62 KTAE 231959 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 359 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Daily chances of showers and storms will continue for the next several days. Overall, rain chances are lowest for today, then increase through the workweek. The strongest storms are expected to produce wind gusts of 40-60 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain. An SPC Marginal Risk of severe storms is in effect through Tuesday. - Another heat advisory may be needed for Monday across our Florida counties. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Monday) Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 An SPC Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms remains in effect for the rest of today into the evening. Although a watch is not anticipated, low level lapse rates and PW will be sufficient in a northwest flow regime to allow for wet microbursts to produce marginally damaging winds in isolated storms through this evening. A stalled front to the north and existing outflow boundaries are potential triggering mechanisms. Coverage of storms will increase on Monday and another SPC Marginal Risk for severe storms is already in place due to the continued combination of a northwest flow regime, deep moisture and low level instability. A WPC Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall is also in place. Uncertainty in timing of development of convection and associated cloud cover precludes the issuance of a heat advisory at this time, especially considering how the current advisory is not panning out. However, forecast heat indices currently support one for our FL counties as well as South GA from Lowndes County east along the FL border to Lake Seminole. The overnight shift will reassess. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Tuesday and Wednesday will be carbon copies of Monday with SPC and WPC marginal risks in place. Heat advisory criteria does not appear in jeopardy. Rain chances will increase for Thursday and Friday as a front approaches from the northwest. Near normal rain chances and temperatures are forecast for the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Isolated chances for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly for the DHN, ECP, and TLH terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the night. There is potential for fog development around daybreak for the TLH, VLD, and ABY terminals, as noted by a TEMPO group, however confidence is low to medium. Showers and thunderstorms return tomorrow afternoon, mainly initiating after the end of this TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Gentle to occasionally moderate southwesterly flow will continue over the waters for the next several days. Scattered showers and storms are possible each day, mainly in the overnight and morning hours, decreasing in the afternoon. The main exception will be for any clusters of storms that move off the coast this week during the late afternoon or evening hours. Seas will remain around 1 to 2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Generally light west to southwest transport winds will continue through the next several days. Dispersions will remain good overall each afternoon. Increasing coverage of storms are expected Monday and Tuesday. Gusty, erratic winds and dangerous lightning strikes will be possible. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 There is a WPC Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall across the region from Monday through Thursday. Storms could produce locally heavy rainfall over the next several days. If the storms are slow- moving, then they could produce several inches of rain in a short period of time. This would lead to some nuisance to isolated flash flood concerns, particularly in low- lying or poor drainage areas. River flooding is not expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... While convective coverage is not expected to be high today, spotter activation is requested as storms that do develop could be marginally severe. Spotters should safely report significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 75 97 75 93 / 10 50 50 80 Panama City 79 92 78 90 / 10 20 60 70 Dothan 74 95 73 93 / 10 60 40 50 Albany 74 97 73 95 / 10 30 40 30 Valdosta 74 97 73 94 / 20 50 40 70 Cross City 75 95 74 92 / 0 30 50 80 Apalachicola 80 92 78 89 / 10 30 50 70 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ012>015-027-112-114-115-118-127-326-426. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wool LONG TERM....Wool AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Wool FIRE WEATHER...Wool HYDROLOGY...Wool  834 FXUS63 KFGF 231958 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 258 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Hail to the size of golf balls and wind gusting to 70 mph will be the main threats. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...Synopsis... Northwest flow prevails this afternoon into the evening, gradually becoming zonal overnight. Showers and isolated thunderstorms could work into parts of eastern North Dakota overnight as warm air advection increases ahead of an approaching shortwave. Upper flow then becomes slightly southwest late overnight into Monday morning. This will be in response to the shortwave and weak upper low moving across southern Manitoba late Monday into Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected as the associated cold front sweeps across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, with a chance for isolated severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Warm air advection ahead of the front will allow afternoon temperatures to climb well into the 80s across most of the area. Slightly cooler temps return on Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain chances Late Tuesday through Thursday will be minimal, with PoPs increasing once more late Friday into the weekend. ...Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Late Monday... Severe thunderstorm coverage on Monday afternoon and evening will depend heavily on the timing of an approaching cold front. Warm air advection will be strong through much of the day across eastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota; however, with remnant shower activity on Monday morning potentially lingering, this could shorten the window of potential severe weather late Monday. Looking at CAMs, there are several potential scenarios, ranging from potential splitting supercells, to elevated clusters. Model soundings are consistent with nearly straight hodographs as the front approaches, which continue to support splitting supercells and hybrid clusters. As such, a high end scenario supports supercells developing west of the Red River during the late afternoon, with hazards including wind gusts to 75 mph and large hail to the size of golf balls. A more likely scenario would be that we have lingering convective inhibition later into the afternoon, thus delaying convection until later in the evening. This would still support wind gusts up to 70 mph, but would transition into mainly an elevated hail scenario that extends into the early overnight hours. With this later scenario, we could see isolated severe thunderstorms lingering into Tuesday morning across parts of northwest Minnesota. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the period at all TAF sites. Besides a few high clouds and mid level cumulus, mostly clear skies are expected through much of the afternoon and evening. Winds remain generally light, ranging from 5-12 knots, but will increase slightly overnight into Monday morning. For KDVL, low rain chances remain in the forecast overnight; however, better chances for showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...Lynch