238 FXUS65 KRIW 231600 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1000 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Monsoonal moisture continues this afternoon and evening but not as widely scattered as Saturday with localized flooding possible in the strongest storms. - Strong to severe storms possible (30-40%) looking more like the evening time frame after 6PM with a line of storms from Idaho capable of producing damaging winds up to 60 mph. - Monsoonal moisture will linger much of the week, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. Temperatures will be closer to seasonable for this time of year nearing the end of August. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 It was a typical monsoon day yesterday, with some areas, mainly in southwest and in Johnson and Natrona Counties getting a LOT of rain, causing some local flooding. Other areas saw nothing. And we continue to have some showers and embedded thunder around late tonight, although intensity is significantly less. And these will continue through the night, gradually becoming weaker and less numerous. We will have another round of showers and storms today. There are some differences. For one, precipitable water values are less today by about 20 percent in most locations. This should bring less coverage and somewhat lesser rainfall rates. The other difference is that there will be more steering flow today, generally about 10 to 15 knots at 700 millibars and 25 to 35 knots at 500 millibars. So storms should have more movement. This should decrease the chance of flooding somewhat. We still have an excessive rainfall outlook across most ares West of the Divide though, so the threat is still there. There is also the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. Most of the area is under a marginal risk of severe weather today. There could be some small hail, but this not the main risk. The main risk looks to be strong wind gusts. Roughly north and west of a Buffalo to Riverton to Lyman line has a Conditional 1 outlook for wind, or possible convective wind gusts to 75 mph. Soundings do show some inverted V profiles, especially across northwestern Wyoming where the surface will be drier, with low and mid level lapse rates close to 9 C/Km. This could lead to some strong downburst winds later today. Again, the best chance would be across the northwest but most areas will have a chance. And, like previous nights, most convection should end after sunset but a few showers and storms will likely linger through the night. As for temperatures, they should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with more sunshine expected. The rest of the week looks like more of the same as the annoying monsoonal moisture will hang around the area through at least Thursday and possibly into Friday as well. The models continue to have different ideas on which day will be more active with no real well defined shortwaves with changes from day to day. Precipitable water generally average about 125 to 150 percent of normal through the period though. So, at this point we went with a generic solution of mainly diurnal showers and storms each afternoon. Temperatures should remain fairly similar through the period, not very hot but averaging around 4 to 8 degrees above normal on average, with the possibility of a cooler day if there is more cloud cover than expected. Drier air may then work in for next weekend and bring a return to drier weather but uncertainty remains high on the exact timing. So, all in all, it continues to look like more of the same as the summer of the monsoon lives on in western and central Wyoming. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 416 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A few showers will linger early this morning in vicinity of KCPR and KRKS until around 13Z to 14Z, followed by a clearing sky. Today will be another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the best chance of a shower or thunderstorm after 20Z until around 04Z Monday. The best chance is across the northwestern terminals, especially in vicinity of KJAC which has the highest chance. Most other terminals have around a 20 to 25 percent chance, and PROB30 groups were included for those. The smallest chance is at KCPR, with the chance less than 20 percent so we left thunder out of the forecast for now. However, confidence is low in timing individual showers and storms. A gusty wind will increase in vicinity of KRKS and KCPR this afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Hattings  527 FXUS62 KJAX 231605 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1205 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Daily risk of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms during the. Hazards: Wind Gusts 40-60 mph, Localized downpours. Concern Area: North of I-10 and across inland Southeast Georgia && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Highlights through Tonight: - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms south of I-10 this afternoon - Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm this evening for SE GA. Drier airmass with PWATs around 1.5 inches continues to push southward into SE GA and close to the FL/GA border late this morning while deeper moisture will be pooled south of I-10 this afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop within and along the edge of the moisture axis through the afternoon. Some warming air aloft will keep instability in check this afternoon across NE FL but a few stronger storms, capable of strong gusts, may develop along the pinned Atlantic sea breeze in St Johns and Flagler counties this afternoon. Some training may occur but generally southwesterly storm motion of around 10-15 mph should limit the potential for substantial flooding. Though the dry air will limit much convection throughout the afternoon north of I-10, model ensemble guidance indicates leftover moisture from an ongoing MCS over the lower Mississippi river valley may be enveloped by the westerly flow aloft and transported into SE GA early this evening. This will give a late day window for isolated convection to develop despite the lower level dryness. The interplay between the increase instability and dry air may support strong to severe microburst activity (winds 40-60 mph) with isolated convection in the SE GA vicinity this evening. The Storm Prediction Center has kept a "Marginal Risk" of severe storms north of I-10 given this potential wind threat this evening. Activity will wane by midnight with dry conditions through the early morning hours Monday. Temperatures will soar into the mid and upper 90s across SE GA this afternoon but drier air will keep heat index in the 100-104F range. Temperatures will be a few degrees lower in NE FL, but low level moisture in the air will make it feel like 103-107F this afternoon. Low temps tonight still expected in the lower/middle 70s inland, and upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Increase in showers and storms with return of moisture, higher chances heading into midweek. Southwesterly flow will persist through the beginning of the week, south of the stalled frontal boundary to the north and ridging extending over the southern portion of the Florida peninsula from out of the east, bringing increased atmospheric moisture before midweek with PWAT values rising to over 2 inches, resulting in higher chances for numerous showers and storms over southeast Georgia on Monday and then expanding to include portions of northeast Florida by Tuesday as rising PWATs spread southward. Daytime high temperatures will drop down from out of the mid to upper 90s on Monday down into the lower to mid 90s on Tuesday, with overnight low temperatures remaining fairly consistently in the lower 70s over inland areas and in the mid 70s along the coastline. Heat index values will rise to be over 100 during this period but are expected to remain below heat advisory criteria each day. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Active weather continues past midweek of the upcoming week Pattern for diurnal convection with a potential for the development of stronger storms will continue through the extended period into Saturday as southwesterly flow persists between the receding frontal boundary to the north and high pressure ridging extending over the Florida peninsula from out of the east. Temperatures will trend slightly above average through the end of the week and into the weekend with daily high temperatures reaching into the lower 90s. Heat index values will rise to be over 100 during this period but are expected to remain below heat advisory criteria each day. Tropics Outlook: NHC has a 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation mid to late week across the central Atlantic. Locally, rip current activity could become more enhanced late week depending on the evolution of this system. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... VFR across NE FL terminals with deeper moisture sliding south of the I-10 corridor this afternoon, so greatest rainfall chances will be at GNV/SGJ and have continued VCTS with PROB30 of TSRA activity mainly in the 18-22Z time frame. Light W-SW winds will continue through this afternoon except for a SE sea breeze close to 10 knots at coastal terminals. Following afternoon/early evening convection, should become VFR overnight with lingering mid/high clouds and the typical MVFR fog chances at VQQ from 07-11Z. Any rainfall chances for Monday will likely occur after the end of the current TAF period, so will leave out for now. && .MARINE... A stalled front near the Georgia coastal waters will linger through Monday before dissolving through the week. Main maritime concern will be increasing potential for afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day during the upcoming week. The steering winds will generally move thunderstorms from the shoreline toward the offshore waters during the evening hours. Outside of thunderstorm influences, low to calm seas and light offshore winds persist. Rip Currents: Surf/breakers will remain 1 to 2 feet early this week in the mainly offshore flow with overall low rip current risk, but brief periods of moderate risk will exist during the afternoon hours as local onshore sea breeze develops each day. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Locally High Dispersion Monday For Se Ga West to southwesterly flow continues today and into midweek across most locations, with east to southeast winds across coastal locations during the afternoon hours as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland. Drier air will bring lower humidity and mostly dry weather during the afternoon hours across southeast Georgia today, with showers and storms possible during the late afternoon to early hours, while scattered to isolated afternoon showers and storms will continue across northeast FL. Moisture levels begin to increase next week, with chances of showers and storms increasing through the week. Hotter temperatures Today and Monday will increase mixing heights across southeast GA, with locally high dispersion Monday afternoon. Fog Potential: Significant fog is unlikely, and any strong wind will be associated with nearby thunderstorm activity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 73 96 73 94 / 10 40 20 70 SSI 78 95 77 91 / 10 50 30 70 JAX 75 95 73 92 / 10 50 50 80 SGJ 75 95 75 92 / 10 20 20 70 GNV 73 94 73 91 / 10 20 20 70 OCF 72 94 74 91 / 10 20 10 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$  546 FXUS61 KCTP 231605 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1205 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Added PoPs/raised them for the next several hours based on radar loops/convective development. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unseasonably deep upper low over the Upper Great Lakes today will move Southeast to Lake Ontario by Monday morning bringing another few rounds of showers and thunderstorms, mainly across Northern PA this afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Unseasonably deep upper low over the Upper Great Lakes today will move Southeast to Lake Ontario by Monday morning bringing another few rounds of showers and thunderstorms, mainly across Northern PA this afternoon and evening. Noon update... Plenty of shallow convection out there, now and plenty already south of where the (previously expanded) PoPs lay. NBM PoPs doing especially poorly today with the short convection. Despite their short stature, some are generating some ltg. Likely those would also be making some very small hail. Temps aloft conducive to hail formation. So, as we add some heat to the blyr, we will get CAPEs up and get some taller cells. Those could make severe hail and (less probable) high gusts. MCD from SPC says 20% chc of a watch for our area. Previous... A subtle shortwave trough rotating around the southeast side of the upper low will spark some afternoon/evening showers and TSRA today, followed by only a brief downtrend in convection before a well-defined trough moves SE with its axis near the PA/OH border by shortly after midnight tonight. HREF and SREF MUCAPEs will top out between 750-1000 j/kg with wet bulb zero levels descending about 3-4 KFT to only around 6 KFT AGL across the Northern Mtns this afternoon and tonight. It's almost a slam dunk to see some periods of significant small hail from the stronger low-topped TSRA between 18Z Sun and 00Z Monday across the NW and maybe the Central/Ncent Mtns. SPC has a marginal risk of SVR TSRA for today across all of the CWA except for the southern tier layer of counties. Coincidentally, NBM POPS had to be raised by at least 20 percent (to agree with the SPC outlook) across the Central and Scent Mtns along with much of the Middle and Lower Susq Valley where a relative min of zero to 10 POPs was noted. Luckily, this second and more potent upper trough will be pivoting over the Commonwealth overnight tonight with MUCAPE of only a few hundred J/KG, supporting mainly showers and perhaps a low-topped TSRA or two moving inland from the warm waters of Lake Erie. Maxes only in the 60s and a brisk W wind across the northern and western mtns will make it feel much more like Sept/Oct than mid- Aug. Valley locations will see more sun preceding any convection with high temps reaching the mid 70s to near 80F in the Lower Susq Valley. Similar conditions are expected for Monday with the center of the upper low still hanging around our longitude and only moving slowly poleward. The SHRA/TSRA will likely be confined to only the nrn tier of counties in PA on Monday. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mid morning update. Adjusted the current TAFS for current obs and also small clusters of showers and isolated storms. Earlier discussion below. MVFR will predominate most airfields through the mid morning hours with pockets of lower IFR ceilings due to upslope flow at KBFD and KJST. We'll see a transition with varying VFR and MVFR in SHRA/Isolated low-topped TSRA focused in the 19-23Z window. Westerly wind gusts of 25+ Kts and small hail (GS) are possible across the northern Mtns of PA including KBFD. Cooling temperatures aloft and a 20+kt 850mb westerly jet should allow for moderately gusty winds for the late morning and afternoon hours. Outlook... Mon-Wed...Patchy morning fog, otherwise mainly VFR conditions return early next week with lower statewide precipitation chances. Thu...Chance of showers and storms again. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo AVIATION...Lambert/Martin/Lambrech  338 FXUS66 KLOX 231618 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 918 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS...23/851 AM. Very hot temperatures are expected this week with highs 6-12 degrees above normal. Patchy night through morning low clouds and fog will be confined to coastal areas, mainly north of Point Conception. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...23/918 AM. ***UPDATE*** This will be the hottest week of the summer so far with highs 6-12 degrees above normal and likely some daily temperature records. In addition, overnight temperatures will be warming as well and many areas are set to break record high minimum temperatures this week. Heat advisories begin today for areas south of Pt Conception. Some, though likely not all areas will be upgraded to Excessive Heat Warnings Tuesday. Will have to see how the gradients respond the next couple days to determine the extent of the Warning coverage. The case for heat advisories north of Pt Conception is not as strong but will probably need some targeted advisories starting Tuesday across the inland coastal areas that are more heavily populated with less access to cooling sources. ***From Previous Discussion*** The theme of the short and long term will be heat. A 597 dam upper high centered over NM will sit in place through Tuesday. Hgt will be near 592 dam today and Monday but will rise to 594 dam on Tuesday. At the sfc there will be near neutral flow in the W/E direction in the morning turning more onshore in the afternoon. There will be weak offshore flow from the north in the mornings turning weakly onshore in the afternoon. On Tuesday the offshore flow from the north will be stronger and the onshore push in the afternoon will be weaker. Max temps today and Monday will be similar and 5 to 10 degrees above normal in most places. Max temps in the vlys, lower mtn elevations and far interior will range from 98 to 108 degrees with the warmest readings in the western San Fernando Vly. The increase in hgts and decrease in the afternoon's onshore flow will bring 2 to 4 degrees of warming to almost all areas on Tuesday. Triple digit heat will affect all areas away from the csts. The interior of the LA coast will see max temps in the mid and upper 90s. Heat Advisories will go into effect this morning for LA and Ventura Counties except for the higher mountains of Ventura and the Antelope Valley. The Advisory also covers the Santa Barbara Mountains and Cuyama Valley, and the South Coast. These advisories last until 10 AM Tuesday. Following that, there is an Extreme Heat Watch in effect for the same areas, through Friday evening. At this time it is very likely (80 percent confidence) that the watches will be converted into Extreme Heat Warnings. The fairly light gradients will not create too much in the way of gusty winds. The only exception will be the western SBA south coast where Sundowners will likely occur each evening. Gusts in these areas will generally peak at 25 to 35 mph, although with isolated stronger gusts near Gaviota and Refugio. Skies through the period will be mostly clear. With limited onshore or even weak offshore flow and no eddy low clouds will be absent or very limited south of Pt Conception. Better onshore flow will likely bring some morning low clouds to western SBA county each overnight and morning. .LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...23/300 AM. The only real question for the Wed through Fri forecast is: will it be very hot or extremely hot. This forceast problem is driven by a wide range of possibilities with the sfc gradients. The EC is show a fairly strong offshore push which would bring near record very dangerous heat to the area. The GFS keeps the E/W gradient onshore but even it has some offshore flow forecast from the north (just much less than the EC does). The upper high moves a little to the west but hgts really do not change much and should remain around 594 dam through the period. Almost all of the vlys, lower mtn elevations and far interior will have temps between 100 and 110 degrees during this period. If the EC verifies Vly temps could end up 2 to 3 degrees warmer than the current forecast. The interior cst sections (such as DTLA) have a 15 percent chc of high temps of 100 to 103 degrees. The Central Coast will not be immune from the heat this time around. Offshore trends will lead to an 8 to 12 degree warm up on Wednesday leading to max temps in the upper 80s to mid 90s - there is a 10-20 percent chc that SLO could see 100 degrees. In addition to the daytime highs overnight lows will be 8 to 12 degrees above normal and this will greatly exacerbate the heat risk as there will be no time for people's body to release the heat stress. It is very likely that almost the entire forecast area will be blanketed by some combination of heat advisories and Extreme Heat Warnings starting Wednesday. One additional local concern will be very hot sundowners across southern SBA county. A decent N to S gradient will set up over the county each evening and gusty north canyon winds will develop. These hot winds could drive max temps into the 100-105 degree range and could also keep temperatures in the 80s until almost dawn. Some cooling is forecast on Saturday, but in the past these heat waves have held on a little longer than forecast. && .AVIATION...23/1615Z. At 1600Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 500 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 2700 feet with a temperature of 28 degrees Celsius. For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in KPRB, KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KWJF and KPMD. For KSBP, there is a 50% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop tonight. For KSMX, timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecast. For KLAX and KLGB, there is a 10-20% chance of LIFR/IFR conditions 08Z-17Z. KLAX...Overall, good confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 10-20% chance of LIFR/IFR conditions 08Z-17Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF. && .MARINE...23/738 AM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Monday night, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds. For Tuesday through Thursday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds continuing with seas approaching SCA levels. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate confidence in current forecast. Today through Monday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. For Tuesday through Thursday, there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Thursday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds today through Monday in the late afternoon and evening hours...then a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds Tuesday through Thursday in the late afternoon and evening hours. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory in effect until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through Friday evening for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 4 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Rorke AVIATION...RAT MARINE...RAT SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  448 FXUS66 KMTR 231623 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 923 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1204 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages persist within the marine layer through the next week - Warm and dry conditions continue above 1000 feet && .UPDATE... Issued at 920 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The marine layer remains much more compressed today with stratus confined to coastal areas and patches of it along the SF Bay shoreline. Stratus is expected to recede earlier today than yesterday with high level clouds to persist through the day. Otherwise, expect highs in the 80s across the interior with the warmest interior locations reaching the 90s. Coastal areas will stay cooler in the 60s to 70s. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1204 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 (Today and tonight) Another day of the weather pattern dominated by the balance between the ridge over the Desert Southwest and the troughing over the Eastern Pacific. Today, a cutoff low moving across the Pacific Northwest is allowing the ridging to have a little more impact over central California, resulting in a compressed marine layer and a slight uptick in temperatures across the interior. Some coastal stratus development is still possible through the overnight hours, and any stratus that does form will dissipate rather early in the post-sunrise hours. High temperatures today range in the middle 80s to the middle 90s across the interior, the upper 90s into the triple digits in the warmest interior spots (especially southern Monterey County), the 70s and lower 80s near the Bays, and the lower to middle 60s along the Pacific coast. Breezy onshore winds are expected in the afternoon and evening along the coast and through favored gaps and passes. Regarding conditions near the Timber Fire, the compressed marine layer will lead to warm and dry conditions in the higher elevations where the fire continues to actively burn. Light northeast winds in the morning will shift to a southwest flow in the afternoon and evening hours. Smoke transport will be inhibited by the marine layer inversion into the morning, resulting in the potential for reduced visibilities in the immediate area, while winds aloft will transport smoke northeastward towards Salinas and Hollister. For air quality information, refer to products issued by the Monterey Bay Air Resources District. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1204 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 (Monday through Saturday) The pattern remains relatively stable through the rest of the forecast period. A developing low in the eastern Pacific will allow more of the troughing influence to arrive on Monday, causing temperatures to dip by around 3-6 degrees in the inland valleys (around the lower 80s to the lower 90s), before temperatures rebound on Tuesday and Wednesday due to the ridging reasserting itself, and remain remarkably close to today's forecast through the end of the 7- day outlook. The breezy afternoon and evening winds will continue to develop for coastal areas and through favored gaps and passes. Ensemble models and our colleagues at the National Hurricane Center continue to suggest the possibility for a couple of tropical systems to develop off the coast of Mexico through the next week. One such system could very well develop today. It's too early to say what the impacts of the system could be to the region, ranging from impacts to the large-scale pattern to the potential for tropical moisture flow towards our region. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 433 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Currently a mixed bag of LIFR-VFR. Warmer and drier conditions are inhibiting stratus formation this morning and high clouds streaming in from the southwest are not helping. As a result, confidence is decreasing in the widespread return of IFR/MVFR stratus this morning. OAK, SFO, and STS have been reduced to TEMPO groups for IFR stratus through 16Z with APC, LVK, and SJC likely remaining VFR. Coastal terminals of HAF, MRY, and SNS can expect ceilings on the cusp of LIFR/IFR. Due to the patchy nature of stratus, VFR will likely be achieved earlier than normal. Diurnal winds will prevail. A more normal stratus intrusion is expected tonight, leading to moderate confidence in ceilings (likely on the cusp of IFR/MVFR) returning to most terminals. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. Confidence continues to decrease on a ceiling developing at the terminal this morning with the camera showing stratus holding to the northwest. If it is able to develop, it'll likely be on the cusp of IFR/MVFR. Diurnal winds will prevail. Higher confidence on a ceiling on the cusp of IFR/MVFR returning tonight. SFO Bridge Approach...The San Mateo Bridge Approach will likely stay VFR longer than the terminal this morning with patchy stratus along the East Bay Hills. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently LIFR with southwesterly flow at MRY and VFR and calm at SNS. SNS is expected to get a ceiling on the cusp of IFR/LIFR. VFR is expected by late-morning with an early return of IFR stratus this evening. Diurnal winds will prevail. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 920 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Northwest winds remain moderate through Sunday and gradually ease to gentle breezes through the middle of next week before increasing again. The northern outer waters will continue to experience near gale force gusts into the evening. Wind driven seas remain slight to moderate entering the work week. Reduced visibility due to smoke from the Timber Fire is expected along the Big Sur coast as the marine inversion holds through the morning. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Navarrete Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  519 FXUS61 KAKQ 231625 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1225 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated the marine discussion. No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly dry with seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable humidity through Wednesday. Chances for showers and storms return late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 AM EDT Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry with seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable humidity through Wednesday. Chances for showers and storms return late in the week. The vast majority of precip has moved offshore this morning with just some lingering (light) rain on the lower Maryland Eastern Shore. Otherwise, a cold front will gradually slide through the area today. There will be an initial push of drier air this morning, followed by a more substantial push late this afternoon and evening. Today will be dry for most though a very isolated sea breeze shower could develop in the Virginia Beach/Outer Banks vicinity. Have a very thin stripe of 20% PoPs in this area. Regarding temperatures, expecting it to be quite warm due to a modest downsloping effect with highs ranging from the mid 80s W to upper 80s E. Dew points should also drop from W to E and likely into the mid-upper 50s inland, but still in the 60s near the coast. High pressure sets up to our NW Monday and then drifts SE toward the local area Tuesday. Wx wise, similarly benign Monday-Wednesday with seasonably warm conditions and very comfortable humidity/dew points. There is a very low chance of an afternoon shower/storm near the Albemarle Sound Monday afternoon; otherwise, mainly dry. There will be a gradual shift toward another wetter period by the end of the week as broad troughing overspreads the eastern CONUS and the deep-layer flow becomes southwesterly. An accompanying increase in humidity is also expected. At this time, Thursday appears to be the most "active" day with showers and storms likely areawide. Daily convection chances linger, especially across the E/SE, Friday and likely into next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 550 AM EDT Sunday... Patchy low CIGs and fog should clear after 12-13z. Otherwise, VFR should prevail through today and tonight. Light and variable winds become W 5-10 kt this afternoon and then light tonight. Outlook: Dry and prevailing VFR conditions expected through the early-mid week period. && .MARINE... As of 1225 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Generally benign marine conditions are expected through the weekend into early next week. - A brief SE surge is possible late Wednesday into early Wednesday night. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail this weekend through much of next week. A cold front continues to move east across the local waters this afternoon. However, elevated winds are not expected behind the front. Instead, NW winds of 5-10 kt early this afternoon become variable through tonight. Will note that a secondary cold front pushes through overnight, allowing for NW winds after ~2 AM. High pressure builds in Mon with light and variable winds continuing. Another weak cold front pushes across the local waters Mon night with winds becoming N 10-15 kt. Winds gradually diminish Tue as weak onshore flow develops (5-10 kt). The only potential for low-end SCA conditions appears to be late Wed into Wed night as SE winds increase to ~15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt behind a warm front. However, confidence is low at this time with the current model consensus showing winds remaining sub- SCA. Otherwise, waves mainly around 1 foot (occasionally 1-2 ft) and seas mainly around 2 feet (occasionally 2-3 ft) continue through the week. Given 1-2 ft nearshore waves, the rip current risk remains low through Wed. Will note that long period swell of 10-12 seconds continues through Wed which could result in some rip currents. However, given the relatively flat nearshore waves, current thinking is that the rip current risk will remain below moderate. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SW AVIATION...SW MARINE...RMM  724 FXUS63 KOAX 231631 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1131 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool temperatures and cloudy skies today with highs in the 70s expected. Light rain is likely (50-60%) across portions of eastern Nebraska - less rain in the far east and across western Iowa. - Another round of showers and thunderstorms likely early Monday morning with drying in the afternoon. - Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances continue next week, with high temperatures generally in the mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Sunday and Monday A weak surface high remains in place across the Central and Northern Plains early this morning. Winds are light and there is a thin band of cirrus streaming across the area. With time this morning, winds will slowly veer to the south, but they may actually go calm at number of locations. While patchy fog in low lying areas is still possible near sunrise, there are a couple factors working against it. There is a slightly drier boundary layer after good mixing on Saturday and light northerly winds, plus being another day removed from rainfall across far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Also, mid-high clouds look to expand across the area between 4-7 AM CT, which would put a lid on the radiative cooling. Stepping upward in the atmosphere, ridging over the Intermountain West leaves the local area in a northwest flow pattern both in the short term and beyond as the pattern looks to remain fairly stubborn over the next several days. There is a healthy fetch of moisture off to our west as well with a 1.25+" PWAT contour extending from west Texas to the Canadian border across the High Plains. There has also been expansive convection across the higher terrain overnight. Showers with embedded thunder are expected to walk across western and central Nebraska this morning. Instability and deep layer shear are minimal across the area this morning, so even thunder might be hard to come by across eastern Nebraska. Nonetheless, light showers are expected today along with more mid-level cloud cover. This will keep today's temperatures cooler. It's sort of a rinse and repeat pattern on Monday with convection wrapping around the ridge to our west and working across the area. Convective initiation looks likely upstream in SD aided by pronounced 925-850mb WAA between 1am-10am Monday. MUCAPE is also a little better, ~500-1000 J/Kg, across northeast NE during this time with values diminishing south and east. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out on Monday - especially near the SD/NE border. Tuesday and Beyond As previous discussions have mentioned, the northwest flow pattern will remain in place through the work week with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms - generally weak in nature. It is really tough to pin down precip timing and amounts in patterns such as these. The forcing for ascent is hard to track with not much run-to-run continuity in the model guidance, and the forcing is often weak. While shortwaves embedded in the flow have the potential to kick of showers, they are hard to diagnosis beyond 24 hours. Nonetheless, we will have several more chances to add to our hot start in terms of August precipitation: Omaha - 5.37" (+2.08) Lincoln - 4.57" (+2.31) Norfolk - 5.12" (+2.55) Looking at 500mb heights from the WPC cluster analysis (EPS/GEFS/CMCE) as we head toward the end of August, we still maintain positive height anomalies across most of the central U.S. Thus, no big cool downs appear to be on the horizon, although the ridge axis might shift 1-2 states to the west. That'd likely mean better chances for dry weather past Day 7. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A band of rain showers will slowly push eastward across the area this afternoon. Generally VFR conditions prevail, with patchy MVFR conditions expected under heavier showers. Showers and expected to continue at KOFK and KLNK, with coverage more spotty eastward towards KOMA as showers begin to decrease in coverage through the afternoon. Thunderstorm chances remain low, around 20%, at the terminals this afternoon. A break in precipitation is expected this evening before more widely scattered showers and thunderstorms develop overnight, clearing by the mid to late morning. This round of storms is expected to impact each terminal, with refinements in timing is likely. Winds will back from the southwesterly this afternoon to southeasterly tonight. Though winds will generally remain calm, a few 12-18 kt gusts will be possible with passing rain showers. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CLF AVIATION...Wood  763 FXUS66 KSEW 231632 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 932 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough will continue to make its way across the area this morning, bringing chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily to the mountains and the northern tier of western Washington. Upper level ridging will build into the Pacific Northwest on Monday and Tuesday for warmer and drier conditions. Another upper level low will approach the area around midweek, bringing increasing onshore flow and cooler conditions to western Washington the second half of the week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Cloudy skies this morning and light shower activity moving across Snohomish and Skagit County. Otherwise, no major updates to the forecast this morning. Refer to an updated aviation and fire weather discussion. An upper level trough will continue to make its way inland across the area early this morning. Meanwhile, a surface trough currently extends along the interior of British Columbia, through Vancouver, and down along the Washington coast. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms associated with this feature have remained rather vigorous to the north of the border over the past couple of hours, with latest radar trends showing shower and thunderstorm activity slowly starting to drift southeastward early this morning. Thunderstorms have generally continued to weaken as they drift closer to Washington, however will need to continue to keep an eye on trends through the remainder of the overnight hours as latest hi-res guidance does hint at the possibility of a few storms drifting into portions of the San Juans, Whatcom, and Skagit counties through the early morning hours. Otherwise, expect shower and thunderstorm activity to primarily become confined to the Cascades by this afternoon and to gradually wane throughout the day as the upper level trough pushes off to the east and ridging starts to build in from the west. Widespread cloud cover across the area will take a bit longer to scatter today, helping to keep temperatures slightly cooler and primarily in the low to mid 70s across the interior and in the mid 60s along the coast. Upper level ridging will then build into the Pacific Northwest on Monday, with the ridge axis shifting eastward over the Intermountain West by Tuesday. This will bring a warming and drying trend to western Washington the first part of the week, with Tuesday expected to be the warmest day across western Washington. Afternoon high temperatures will climb into the 80s across the interior lowlands and into the low 90s across the Cascade valleys by Tuesday, reintroducing Moderate HeatRisk to portions of these areas. Surface flow will also transition to northerly and then offshore at times, which may allow for some smoke transport from ongoing wildfires across British Columbia and eastern Washington to make its way back into western Washington at times through the early part of the week. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Ensemble guidance remains in decent agreement with an upper level low approaching the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. This would bring the return of onshore flow and cooler conditions to western Washington the second half of the week. Chances of precipitation will also increase Wednesday and Thursday, though overall amounts look to remain light at this time. Will need to keep an eye on any thunder potential for the area, though probabilities at this time remain at around 10 percent or less. Temperatures will generally trend near to slightly cooler than normal the second half of the week, with afternoon highs topping out in the low to mid 70s across the interior and mid 60s along the coast. Ensemble guidance suggests the upper level trough will remain an influence across the area heading into next weekend, which would continue to promote onshore flow and near to slightly below temperatures across western Washington. 14 && .AVIATION... An upper level trough continues to move east of the area this morning with northwest flow behind the trough. Upper ridging builds in tonight with the flow becoming westerly. Low level onshore flow today becomes northerly tonight into Monday. VFR/MVFR cigs this morning will improve to widespread VFR around midday, with clouds becoming more BKN/SCT this afternoon. VFR into tonight with areas of LIFR stratus along the coast and Strait of Juan de Fuca early Monday AM. Localized fog may develop in river valleys into early Monday as well. W/SW winds transitioning NW for some terminals this afternoon. KSEA...VFR cigs ranging 030 to 050 this morning. Cigs slowly becoming BKN into the afternoon before clearing into this evening. VFR expected then tonight into Monday. Southwest winds becoming N/NW around 23-01z, then remaining NE tonight. JD && .MARINE... High pressure rebuilding over the coastal waters today will remain through Tuesday. Thermally induced surface trough along the coast Monday will dissipate Monday night. A weak frontal system will move across the waters Wednesday night. High pressure rebuilds over the area Thursday. Small craft advisory westerlies in the Central and Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca Tuesday night otherwise winds 20 knots or less through the period. Seas remaining in the 3 to5 foot range through the week. Felton && .FIRE WEATHER... An upper-trough is progressing across the region today. As it pushes off, showers will linger this morning along with a slight chance (less than 15%) of thunderstorms. Overall chances of showers and thunderstorms will then decrease substantially this afternoon and evening as the upper trough exits the region. An upper level ridge will then build into the area Monday and Tuesday, bringing brief periods of low- level offshore flow as a thermal trough builds along the coast and pushes inland overnight into Tuesday. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely across the Cascades on Tuesday with the warm and dry pattern and with relative humidities dipping into the low to mid 20s. Another upper level trough will arrive in the middle of next week, bringing the return of onshore flow- as well as chances for more showers and the potential for thunderstorms. Upper- level troughing then looks to linger into the weekend. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...None. && $$  848 FXUS64 KOUN 231634 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1131 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Excessive heat continues through the weekend and into next week. - Strong to severe storms are possible late Sunday into Monday morning across north central Oklahoma. Damaging wind gusts are the main hazard. - Isolated to scattered rain/storms are possible most days with the primary hazard being strong winds. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Sunday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Upper ridge will build ever so slightly further east today and with expanding low level thermal ridge, much of the area will climb well above 100 degrees today. Southwest Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas will be near record heat at 110-115 degrees. This will require an upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning for those areas eastward along the Red River. Although lighter winds will be a limiting factor, the very hot conditions along with afternoon RH values below 20% and very dry vegetation will result in elevated fire weather conditions across portions of western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Will issue a Fire Danger Statement for these areas for today. Elsewhere, a shortwave trough will move across the Central Plains into the Ozarks region today. Although anticipate much of the associated precip to remain to our north and east, some may skirt far north central Oklahoma late this afternoon. This along with the associated cloud cover may keep north central Oklahoma from reaching 100 degrees this afternoon. An extension of the shortwave along with some low level convergence along a residual boundary across northwest Oklahoma may allow for an isolated afternoon thunderstorm there as well. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Afternoon High Plains convection will make a run at northwest Oklahoma this evening, most of that is expected to dissipate as we go through the evening, although developing low level jet may keep activity going a little further east than many of models indicate. Some of the latest HRRR runs suggest this. As we go through the night llj veers to the west and a rather deep layer of warm advection develops, once again across mainly eastern half of Oklahoma. May see activity again develop near of just east of I-35 corridor and then shift east into eastern Oklahoma Monday morning. Models are still showing a shortwave trough coming out of the High Plains on Monday with an associated surface low developing in the eastern Texas panhandle or western Oklahoma. This low will then track east across Oklahoma near of just north of the I-40 corridor along with a weak surface surface boundary. Veered low level flow along and south of the boundary will set up a "pre-frontal torch" type scenario with record heat across the south on Monday. Temperatures may approach 115 degrees in southwest Oklahoma and north Texas. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will likely develop in these areas as well. Much like Sunday, a limiting factor will be the wind speeds which are not overly strong, but still some 10-20 mph sustained with gusts 20-25 mph will be problematic. At least a Fire Danger Statement will be needed and a Fire Weather Watch/Red Flag Warning may need to be considered. As the upper ridge retrogrades ever so slightly we see a couple of shortwaves drop southeast out of High Plains late Tuesday and Tuesday night. These should provide better precip chances to portions of western and northwestern Oklahoma during this time frame. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 As the secondshortwave moves across the area on Wednesday, not out of the question to see a few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms. Latest medium range model runs of both the GFS and ECMWF show the upper ridge drifting further southwest as we go through the second half of the upcoming week. This will allow modest northwest flow to continue through the end of the week and possibly into the weekend with periodic shortwave troughs traversing the Southern Plains and at least some rain chances continue. With this retrogression of the upper ridge, it should allow temperatures to cool from the peak of the heating that will be see earlier in the week. However, it still appears that above normal temperatures will continue. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through the period. Scattered showers and storms with gusty winds and briefly reduced visibilities are possible across northern OK this evening and into early Monday morning. Otherwise, expect dry conditions with south/southeast winds tonight. Winds will veer Monday morning, becoming northwesterly across northwest OK, and southwesterly across southern and central portions of OK and across western north TX as a surface low moves eastward. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 77 105 75 101 / 10 10 0 10 Hobart OK 80 109 76 105 / 20 0 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 82 111 80 108 / 0 0 10 10 Gage OK 73 102 70 100 / 30 0 10 10 Ponca City OK 71 97 72 97 / 30 10 0 10 Durant OK 79 108 80 107 / 0 10 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005-006-009>012- 014>020-023>032-040>042. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ021-022- 033>039-043>048-050>052. TX...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...08  971 FXUS65 KTWC 231638 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 938 AM MST Sun Aug 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms through Monday, then reduced storm chances through much of the remainder of the work week. Strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will be possible with any thunderstorm. High temperatures will remain above normal through the week with an Extreme Heat Warning in effect for much of southeast Arizona. && .UPDATE 930 AM... Morning showers with altocumulus across central Pima N into Pinal Co. This is likely being forced from gravity waves and/or weak mid and upper level perturbations from morning/overnight convection in northern and central Sonora. There is also convection that moved into the north central Gulf of California, which has pushed a gulf surge into the lower deserts west of Tucson. In fact, Sells RAWS is SSW 15G24 last hour with mid 60 TDs. Further west into Organ Pipe NP area, Breezy southerly winds are advecting mid to upper 60 TDs northward. This will set the stage for a rather robust T'storm day. The question will be where and the intensity. Looking over current MesoA and CAMs, point to areas across western and central Pima and Santa Cruz Cos. One or more clusters, potentially forming into a N/NW moving MCS is possible. However confidence is low, but scattered coverage is expected. Main threats will be strong gusty winds to 60 mph, especially across central Pima Co where the HREF has a 10% prob of gusts in excess of 58 mph. Secondary threat will be a localized flash flood threat. For the Tucson Metro, coverage will be more isolated in nature. Any convection will be storms that can move off the higher terrain and/or OFB interaction likely from storms south and/or southwest of the City. Coverage is even less further east where drier air resides. && .DISCUSSION... The main weather story for this week will continue to be the heat with an extended stretch of near record to record high temperatures starting Tuesday. This is all courtesy of an anomalously strong area of high pressure aloft. This high is currently centered over New Mexico and will briefly weaken on Monday for some slight 'cooling', but that will be short lived as the high re-strenthens starting Tuesday and shifts west into Arizona Wednesday, continuing into the weekend. The high pressure aloft will peak in intensity mid to late week with 500mb heights up to around 3 standard deviations above normal. The Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for much of southeast Arizona through Saturday. Outside of the heat concerns, we've still got some monsoonal moisture across our area. Latest IR satellite imagery shows continued southeast flow across our forecast area with clear to partly cloudy skies. Our focus for storms today will once again mostly be on locales from Tucson south and westward (where the greatest instability is) as drier air remains closer to the NM border. Main concern with these storms will continue to be wind with a secondary isolated threat for heavy rain/flash flooding. Included some patchy blowing dust into the forecast later this afternoon into the evening from the T.O. Nation north into Pinal County with some gusty outflow winds there. A very similar setup for storm activity is expected on Monday before a more notable downward trend in convection starting Tuesday and continuing through the rest of the work week with storm chances mostly hugging right along the Int'l border and White Mountains. Generally little if any activity elsewhere as subsidence and drier air aloft limits storm chances. There are some hints of an uptick in convection next weekend as moisture increases and the high might shift just enough for more favorable northeast flow. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH 16Z MONDAY/... valid through 24/12Z. Generally FEW-SCT clouds 9-13k ft AGL through the forecast period with locally BKN clouds between 23/21Z and 24/09Z. Expect isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA this afternoon into evening, mainly west of a KFHU-KSAD line, diminishing by 24/06Z. Confidence is too low for terminal impacts for KTUS/KOLS to include in TAFs at this time. Gusts in excess of 40 kts are expected with the stronger storms. Otherwise surface winds light and terrain driven. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected through Monday, with the exception of along the NM border where mainly dry conditions are expected. Thereafter, reduced chances for thunderstorm activity for most of southeast Arizona for the rest of the work week, though some isolated storms will continue along the immediate Int'l border and White Mountain region. Temperatures will remain well above normal through most of the week with Monday being the coolest day of the period. Drier conditions will return in the middle of the week with minimum relative humidity values mainly 10- 18 percent in the valleys and 20-30 percent. Winds will generally remain less than 15 mph and terrain driven through the week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ501-502- 504>506-509. && $$ Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson  039 FXUS63 KOAX 231640 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1140 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, with another round possible tonight into Monday morning. Severe weather is not expected. - Clouds and rain chances will keep temperatures cooler today and Monday, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. - Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances continue into the work week, with high temperatures generally in the low to mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1136 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Today and Tomorrow... Water vapor imagery and objective analysis late this morning continue to depict an amplified ridge in place over the western CONUS with subsequent troughing in place over the eastern CONUS. Sandwiched between the two, we continued to reside under northwesterly flow aloft as a train of disturbance slide over the ridge and into the area. A shortwave disturbance pivoting across NE/SD has developed a band of showers and thunderstorms that will continue its slow trek eastward into eastern Nebraska this afternoon. Instability quickly drops off with eastern extent, so showers are expected to gradually weaken and decrease in coverage as they progress into the area through the afternoon. Given the slow movement and longer residence time, we could see some rainfall totals approaching 1 inch towards east-central Nebraska, with totals quickly dropping off towards the Missouri River. Otherwise, the increasing cloud cover will keep afternoon highs confined to the low 70s to low 80s. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected tonight into early Monday as a 25-30 kt LLJ noses into eastern Nebraska, helping to bring sufficient low-level moisture and warm air advection to initiate a round of scattered showers, generally after 10 PM before become more widespread overnight. Instability will be the main limiting factor for storms overnight. A corridor of marginal MUCAPE (1000-1250 J/kg) will drift into northeast Nebraska, bring some low- end potential for a stronger storm or two. However, instability tapers off quickly to the south and east, leaving enough for a few rumbles of thunder but limiting overall storm intensity. Showers will gradually taper off through the late morning hours on Monday. Rainfall totals will be quite variable across the area, depending on where heavier showers track, though pockets of 0.50-1.00" are expected across eastern Nebraska. Clouds cover will be slow to break up and improve behind the departing showers, helping to keep afternoon highs confined to the upper 70s and low 80s yet again. Tuesday... Through the work week, the large scale pattern will remain largely unchanged, with ridging to our west keeping the area under generally northwest flow aloft as a train of shortwave disturbances bring periodic precipitation chances. A few extra peaks of sunshine on Tuesday will help bring high temperatures back into the mid 80s ahead of a shortwave disturbance pushing into the northern Plains. The disturbance is expected to spin up a surface low tracking across southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba that will drape a cold front across the plains, pushing southward across the area through the latter half of Tuesday/early Wednesday. Storm chances with the frontal passage remain somewhat uncertain. While it does look like a fairly unstable airmass will develop ahead of the front, the better forcing for ascent will remain to our northeast, closer to Minnesota, with another enhanced area to our west towards western NE/KS with another incoming shortwave disturbance. Storm development will likely fall on more mesoscale details that come into focus with time. While a strong to severe storm can't be ruled out, the better potential resides to our west. With this in mind, PoPs of 20-40% are in place Tuesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday and Beyond... Precipitation chances clear out Wednesday morning, with dry conditions likely into Thursday. Plenty of sunshines and a brief period of surface high pressure will keep high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Long range guidance continues to flatten the western CONUS ridge into the weekend, keeping it mostly centered over the Desert Southwest and Permian Basin, leaving more zonal flow aloft locally and bringing subtle temperature increase to the area. High temperatures are expected to push back into the mid to upper 80s this weekend, though we will still remain vulnerable to passing shortwave disturbance over the ridge bringing periodic precipitation chances. On-and-off PoPs of 20-40% continue Friday through the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A band of rain showers will slowly push eastward across the area this afternoon. Generally VFR conditions prevail, with patchy MVFR conditions expected under heavier showers. Showers and expected to continue at KOFK and KLNK, with coverage more spotty eastward towards KOMA as showers begin to decrease in coverage through the afternoon. Thunderstorm chances remain low, around 20%, at the terminals this afternoon. A break in precipitation is expected this evening before more widely scattered showers and thunderstorms develop overnight, clearing by the mid to late morning. This round of storms is expected to impact each terminal, with refinements in timing is likely. Winds will back from the southwesterly this afternoon to southeasterly tonight. Though winds will generally remain calm, a few 12-18 kt gusts will be possible with passing rain showers. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...Wood  064 FXUS64 KMOB 231641 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1141 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - A Heat Advisory is in effect for southeast Mississippi today for heat indices to around 108 degrees. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected each afternoon, particularly across the southern half of the area. Storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Hot and humid conditions continue the rest of this afternoon across the area across southeast Mississippi as heat indices soar into the 105 to 110 range. Elsewhere, afternoon mixing is helping to limit higher dewpoints keeping it a bit more tolerable for heat stress. The same can be expected on Monday, although there are some uncertainties in regards to the overall evolution of showers and storms that precludes confidence in issuing a heat advisory at this time. With that said, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will likely occur across the area both this afternoon and Monday afternoon as several shortwaves track southeast across the area. Strong, potentially damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning can be expected with any storms. As we head throughout the rest of the week, we remain in a relatively similar pattern with upper troughing remaining in control across the eastern half of the U.S. and upper ridging located across the south-central into southwestern U.S. Tuesday through Friday. This will continue to favor weak shortwaves tracking across the area throughout the period, bringing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon to the forecast area. Similar to prior days, strong, locally damaging wind gusts are possible with any storms. The heat should relax with the increased coverage of storms, with heat indices likely remaining just below heat advisory criteria as we head through the rest of the week. Afternoon temperatures also drop somewhat with highs only in the lower to middle 90's as opposed to the upper 90's to near 100 we've been enduring. A Low risk of rip currents will continue through the late week for our Alabama and Florida Panhandle beaches. MM/25 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period outside of isolated showers and thunderstorms that will develop this afternoon, mainly along the coast. Brief periods of IFR/MVFR conditions and gusty winds will be possible in and around showers and thunderstorms. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A light to occasionally moderate westerly flow pattern continues through this week. Winds are expected to shift from southwesterly each afternoon to northwesterly late each night. Isolated to potentially scattered showers and storms can be expected each morning during next week with locally higher seas and winds near storms. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 74 93 73 92 / 20 70 30 60 Pensacola 78 92 76 90 / 10 60 40 70 Destin 79 90 77 89 / 10 50 40 60 Evergreen 72 94 70 93 / 20 50 20 50 Waynesboro 73 94 70 95 / 20 50 20 40 Camden 73 91 69 92 / 20 40 20 30 Crestview 73 93 71 91 / 20 60 40 70 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. GM...None. && $$  120 FXUS63 KUNR 231642 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1042 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Upper ridge will dominate the weather through next week. - Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms may occur during the afternoon/evening hours today and Monday. - Temperatures will average 4-8F above normal. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1051 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Updated PoPs and QPF overnight to better capture latest model guidance and current radar trends. Models continue to show significant disagreement on placement of potential thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening, and have been changing from run to run as well. Have taken a broad-brush approach with low PoPs for now, favoring the Black Hills and most of our South Dakota plains (especially north of I-90 and then east of the Badlands). We'll continue to try to refine this over the next 36 hours. Parameters continue to support the potential for a couple severe thunderstorms with damaging wind and large hail risks. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday) Issued at 1236 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 18z surface analysis had weak high over the northern Plains into the middle MO river valley. Weak frontal boundary behind it from central MT into eastern CO. Patch of low stratus over western NE has been pushed northwestward on southeasterly winds along boundary leading to upper 50s Td/s across parts of northeastern WY. Water vapour matinee depicted shortwave ridge over the CWA, but shortwave trough hot on it's heels over eastern ID/western WY. Lift ahead of wave leading to some weak radar returns over northeastern WY, but nothing below 12kft per KGCC observation. Main concern this forecast is convection. Later this afternoon/evening, around 1500J/kg MLCAPE pools along frontal boundary with weak MLCIN. Shortwave overtops, which will assist convective initiation. Perhaps 20-30kt effective shear will be present, enough to support isolated strong/severe thunderstorms where SPC Day 1 Marginal in place. Storms will slowly move eastward across the CWA tonight, but in weaker fashion over western SD given less favorable environment. Temperatures will be near guidance. Sunday, aforementioned frontal boundary ends up over the western SD plains, influenced by tonight's convection/outflow. The further east it goes, the less the effect on the CWA. Right now, HREF suggests it'll settle over the eastern quarter of the CWA. 2KJ/kg CAPE pools along it with 30-40kts of 0-6km shear sufficient for strong/severe thunderstorms. Some CAM guidance suggests a supercell or two dropping south along the UNR/ABR border area late in the day. Temperatures will be near guidance. For Monday/Tuesday, disturbances rotating around the upper ridge will support additional chances for strong/severe convection given forecast shear/buoyancy profiles. The rest of next week looks less active as upper ridge/height rises more dominant. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday) Issued At 1036 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Isolated/scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon (around 20Z) with hail, lightning, heavy rain, and gusty, erratic winds expected. Transient MVFR/IFR conditions in stronger cores is expected. Storms should clear the area by late evening (05Z), however, lingering moisture may result in some lower clouds across the western South Dakota plains through 14Z. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ UPDATE...KSmith DISCUSSION...Helgeson AVIATION...MLS  151 FXUS63 KIWX 231643 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1243 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered lake enhanced showers possible before sunset today. - Breezy this afternoon and evening with northwest winds gusting as high as 20 to 25 mph. - Dangerous swimming conditions persist through this evening on southern Lake Michigan with a High Swim Risk. - Seasonable temperatures and much lower humidity continue through Tuesday. - Next opportunity for rain and storms arrives Wednesday afternoon and evening with 30-60% chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1241 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 We are getting a taste of fall today with clouds, showers, breezy conditions, and cooler temperatures! A low pressure system has departed the Upper Great Lakes region and is currently located over southern Ontario. Isolated lake enhanced showers can be seen on radar this afternoon as the system's attendant mid level trough pivots through northern Indiana. Northwest cyclonic flow and delta Ts of ~14C (water temps ~24C, 10C at 850mb tonight) over Lake Michigan should produce at least a weak lake enhanced response until sunset. In addition to showers, the deepening pressure gradient from the low pressure system off of our northeast will continue to generate gusty northwest winds throughout this afternoon and evening. Northwest winds will be sustained around 10 to 15 mph with gusts as high as 20 to 25 mph through sunset. Breezy conditions and CAA will keep highs only in the low 70s today, about 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Dangerous swimming conditions are ongoing for southeast Lake Michigan beaches and are expected to continue through this evening. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for La Porte and Berrien counties through 11 PM EDT tonight. There is a High Swim Risk today with northwest winds generating 3 to 5 ft waves. Strong rip and structural currents are also expected! If your weekend plans include heading to the beach this afternoon and evening, heed all warnings from lifeguards and stay out of the water! An area of high pressure located over the Midwest with build into the Great Lakes region early in the week. Much lower humidity and several days of seasonable temperatures will make for refreshing early fall-like days. Highs on Monday will be in the mid to upper 70s and highs on Tuesday will be around 80; it will be gradually warmer into midweek as the airmass overhead moderates. Clear skies and light winds overnight mean that several crisp mornings are ahead! Get the pumpkin spice lattes ready as lows Monday and Tuesday morning will only be in the low 50s! Wednesday is a bit warmer and humid with increasing chances for rain and storms. An upper level trough deepens over the Great Lakes and a surface cold front is expected to move through. There are have 30-60% chances for scattered rain and storms Wednesday, with the highest chances along and north of the US 30 corridor. This setup looks to be similar to the past few days where the vorticity maximum is located further north across Michigan so our area misses out on the most widespread rainfall. Instability appears decent but shear and lapse rates may be lacking. We will monitor in the coming days but at this time, severe weather and flooding risks are low. High pressure returns late in the week with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 743 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Predominantly VFR conditions outside of any potential shower activity this morning or afternoon. A few showers have developed over SW Lower MI/NW IN as of this writing, likely to impact KSBN (or be very close) within the next couple hours. Have a tempo to account for any MVFR potential. Otherwise, NW winds pick up this afternoon again, with potential for shower development closer to KFWA. As mentioned in previous discussion, models are pretty inconsistent as to where these showers pop, so persisted with the PROB30 for now. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043- 046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...MCD  357 FXUS61 KRNK 231646 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1246 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation Forecast Updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Drier cooler weather remains through the middle of the week, with next rain chances returning Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Drier cooler weather remains through the middle of the week, with next rain chances returning Thursday. High pressure and upper level troughing will remain over the eastern Conus through the middle of this upcoming work week. This will keep temperatures slightly cooler than average through the Tuesday of this week. By Wednesday, the upper level trough looks to finally get ejected to the northeast, which will raise 500mb heights across the region briefly. As this happens, the surface high pressure that looks to remain quasi- stationary across the region through Tuesday will slowly push east and allow the Bermuda surface high to take over. This will pump more moisture back into the region from the western Atlantic, and return the summer like humid airmass areawide by Wednesday. Again on late Wednesday, an upper level shortwave vorticity maxima looks to eject southeastward through the northern Great Lakes region. This shortwave looks to have a cold front associated with it at the surface that will bring rain chances back into the region by Thursday afternoon and evening. It's too soon at this time to know whether these storms will bring the chance for severe weather or flash flooding, as this will greatly depend on the timing associated with the passage of the aforementioned cold front. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions are expected for a majority of the TAF period at all terminals, with possible brief periods of MVFR to IFR CIGs and VSBYs developing at LWB and BLF during the early morning hours Monday. These restrictions should quickly dissipate after sunrise given the dry airmass in place. Outside of those brief possible early morning fog and low clouds, there are no other restrictions expected. Winds will continue to remain out of the west/northwest through the TAF period, with sustained winds of 5-10 knots and gusts up to 20 knots expected through the afternoon and evening today before becoming calm overnight. Again on Monday winds look to pick up to 5-10 knots sustained, with gusts of only 10-15 knots forecast. OUTLOOK... Drier airmass will sink into the area today and remain into the middle of next week. Should be mainly VFR aside from any late night fog, mainly KLWB. Next system appears to bring some chances for storms Thursday with possibility for sub-VFR cigs/vsbys. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EB AVIATION...EB  388 FXUS63 KUNR 231648 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1048 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal to slight (1-2 out of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms later this afternoon/evening - Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon/evening - Upper ridge will dominate the weather with subtle disturbances through next week with temperatures about 4-8F above normal && .DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Saturday) Issued at 1043 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 16z surface analysis had frontal boundary from eastern MT to eastern CO and a trough from eastern CO into northeastern NE. Water vapour loop had upper ridge over the southwest CONUS with a shortwave over north-central WY. Overnight MCS about to fully exit the CWA with leftover low stratus burning off per 0.5km 1-minute visible imagery. Main concern this forecast will be effect of north-central WY shortwave. This afternoon/tonight, shortwave moves into the Dakotas with slight increase in mid-level flow resulting in 30-45kt effective bulk shear later this afternoon. Td/s in the 60s will be sustained per breezy southeast winds ahead of frontal boundary. Band of 2-3KJ/kg MLCAPE forecast this afternoon over far western SD with minimum cap. Convective initiation (CI) will likely be over the Black Hills around 20z with supercells moving south/southeast at 10-20kts per Bunkers storm motion prognostications. Another area of strong/severe CI may develop over northwestern SD along the frontal boundary/trough interaction late this afternoon. CAMs handle this scenario in different fashion with some emphasizing MLCIN east of the Black Hills with some members not so much. Other strong/isolated severe convection may occur over the rest of the CWA. Sufficient buoyancy/bulk shear for marginal/slight (1-2 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms. Large hail/damaging wind the main threats with CIG1 magnitudes over western SD. Temperatures will be a bit below guidance this afternoon per low level moisture/dissipating stratus. Monday, diurnally driven convection possible in the afternoon/evening, but the upper support less certain compared to today. Temperatures will be near guidance. The rest of the forecast will be dominated by the upper ridge over the southwest CONUS. Ridge amplification into the northern Plains for the second half of the week suggests somewhat quieter and drier weather. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday) Issued At 1036 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Isolated/scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon (around 20Z) with hail, lightning, heavy rain, and gusty, erratic winds expected. Transient MVFR/IFR conditions in stronger cores is expected. Storms should clear the area by late evening (05Z), however, lingering moisture may result in some lower clouds across the western South Dakota plains through 14Z. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Helgeson AVIATION...MLS  378 FXUS64 KOHX 231648 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1148 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1133 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Drier with cooler evening and overnight periods through Tuesday. Fog is possible across the river valleys each morning. - Low to medium rain and storm chances, mainly mid week, with seasonal temperatures that continue into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Water vapor imagery shows a broad area of drier air aloft and northwesterly flow across the region and we finally got a taste of cooler, drier air this morning behind the front that moved through last night. This is a welcomed air mass which will promote continued stable conditions and cooler evenings and overnights through Monday as high pressure moves to our north. We currently do not have any mentionable rain chances through the short-term as a result. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Medium-range guidance and ensembles suggest little change in the background weather pattern through the upcoming week. Generally speaking, ridging will remain out west with a trough across the east. However, the trough should slowly move east mid to late week which will allow for a bit of moisture return from the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will foster showers and a few thunderstorms mid week. Better coverage of convection is possible with passing shortwaves progged during this timeframe and we'll have to see if we get any severe weather since we'll remain in modest mid-level flow. Too early to tell right now. Overall the temperature forecast is pretty close to seasonal norms mid to late week and guidance is on the drier side late week into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 SRB continues to deal with VLIFR fog, but this should clear by 14Z leaving everyone with VFR conditions at great flying weather for the rest of this TAF cycle. Winds will be light and northerly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 88 62 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 85 61 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 81 58 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 90 63 90 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 83 60 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 81 59 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 88 62 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 89 62 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 86 63 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sizemore LONG TERM....Sizemore AVIATION.....Unger  526 FXUS63 KMKX 231654 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1154 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Crisp, fall-like conditions tonight. Some fog is possible after midnight. - Comfortable & pleasant afternoon weather conditions today through Tuesday & Thursday-Friday. - Windows for showers & thunderstorms Tuesday night through Wednesday & next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 This afternoon through Monday night: Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: Southern Wisconsin is centered between low pressure along the Ontario-Quebec border & high pressure along the Minnesota-Iowa border late this morning, resulting in breezy northwest surface winds. With the center of the high & affiliated low level subsidence well west of the area, surface heating is allowing for fair weather cumulus development, with cumulus coverage expected to increase further moving deeper into the afternoon. The aforementioned surface high will nudge into southern Wisconsin tonight, leading to clear skies and light surface winds. The clear skies & light winds will allow for efficient radiational cooling & fall-like low temperatures in the low 50s. Some spots could dip into the upper 40s. Areas of fog development are possible after midnight, particularly in low- lying locations. Fog will quickly dissipate after sunrise Monday, giving way to mostly sunny skies and pleasant weather conditions Monday afternoon. High pressure will begin to shift east of the region Monday night, allowing south-southwest winds to re-establish across the area. Tonight: Will be monitoring for potential fog development near/after midnight as the boundary layer attempts to decouple in the presence of clear skies and light surface winds. Forecast soundings show extremely shallow near-surface moist layers susceptible to mix out and/or dew depletion, so fog coverage remains uncertain. Suspect that the best overall fog potential will remain confined to river valleys & other low-lying spots, but have included broader mentions areawide in the afternoon update. Will be monitoring visibility trends into the overnight. Slow down, use low beam headlights, and allow for extra following distance if encountering areas of fog on the roads. Quigley && .LONG TERM... Issued 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Tuesday through Sunday: Synopsis: High pressure will continue to shift east of the region on Tuesday, with southerly return flow allowing for gradual moisture returns and slight increases in humidity. The next upper disturbance and surface front will drift into the western Great Lakes from the Canadian Prairies Tuesday evening through Wednesday, bringing the next chances for showers and thunderstorms to southern Wisconsin. A new area of high pressure will move into the western Great Lakes during the second half of the week, leading to pleasant and mostly dry weather conditions Thursday into Friday. The high will shift east by Saturday, with returning southerly flow leading to steady increases in humidity through the remainder of next weekend. Concurrent increases in zonal upper level flow, in addition to embedded shortwaves, will support the next shower and storm chances within the returning moisture. Saturday night into Sunday is the currently favored window for storms in southern Wisconsin, with more precise timing clarifying through this week. Tuesday Evening through Wednesday: Still anticipating periods of showers and storms across southern Wisconsin as an upper wave & attendant surface cold front move through the western Great Lakes. General idea of initial (likely elevated) storms within an increasing warm advection regime Tuesday evening/night, followed by a window of surface-based storm potential along the passing cold front Wednesday afternoon, remains on track in this forecast. Latest six hourly precip probs reflect these expectations. Whether or not any of this activity reaches severe levels remains less certain, however, largely due to the currently progged timing of the best synoptic-scale ascent. Global & longer-range mesoscale guidance is relatively insistent on a Tuesday overnight/early day Wednesday passage of the upper wave & surface front, which would be misaligned with peak surface heating & the best instability. Nevertheless, prevailing deep layer shear will be supportive of more organized storm development through this time frame, with any combination of factors promoting increased instability leading to higher potential for a few severe storms with hail and gusty winds. Will be monitoring setup and timing details closely over the next 24-36 hours. Saturday Night through Sunday: A second window for showers and storms opens as low level moisture deepens & the mid-upper pattern becomes more energetic. More precise details will clarify through this week, though it does appear that periods of storms will be around the region as the nose of the low level jet approaches and ultimately folds over southern Wisconsin. Global ensemble guidance is in relatively sound agreement regarding low level jet evolution & placement, providing further confidence for periods of storms during this time frame. A broad overlap of sufficient shear and instability makes this a period to monitor for organized/stronger thunderstorms, though whether these parameters come together to realize any potential will depend on smaller-scale features & timing not yet captured by available guidance. Will be monitoring trends & providing additional info as this portion of the period draws closer. Quigley && .AVIATION... Issued 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Predominant VFR flight categories prevail through the entirety of the period at all southern Wisconsin terminals. Breezy northwest winds will continue this afternoon, with occasional gusts approaching 20 knots possible near Lake Michigan. Fair weather cumulus clouds will steadily increase in coverage, with bases between FL040 and FL060 anticipated. Skies will clear after sunset this evening, with winds trending light and variable into the overnight hours. Will be monitoring for patchy fog formation during the predawn hours, though confidence in direct VIS impacts at any terminal are too low to justify mentions in the 18Z forecast. Will be monitoring trends through this evening & make any amendments where necessary. Any fog will quickly dissipate after sunrise Monday. Lighter northwest winds will prevail by late Monday morning, with an easterly wind shift possible behind the lake breeze at Lake Michigan terminals during the afternoon hours. Quigley && .MARINE... Issued 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Scattered shower chances continue over the northern third of Lake Michigan this afternoon, with a few waterspouts possible. 1004 mb low pressure is centered near the Ontario-Quebec border, resulting in breezy northwest winds across the open waters of Lake Michigan. The breezy winds will continue through tonight as the low lingers in the same general vicinity. Expecting most gusts to remain in the 25- 30 knot range, though a few gusts approaching gale force are possible over the northern third of the lake. Given the brief & isolated nature of any such gusts, not anticipating the need for any gale headlines, but will be monitoring trends. 1020 mb high pressure will steadily build into the Upper Mississippi Valley today, reaching the waters by Monday afternoon. The high's arrival will lead to decreasing winds, with conditions becoming light and variable by Monday evening. Light and variable winds will continue Monday night with high pressure lingering in the vicinity. The high will shift east into Ontario by Tuesday, resulting in a south-southwest wind shift across the waters. 1005 mb low pressure will approach from the northern Great Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday, reinforcing the south- southwesterly wind pattern. The low will cross Lake Michigan during the second half of the day Wednesday, bringing a breezy northwest wind shift. Gales are not expected as this occurs. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the approaching/passing surface low Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon. It remains too early to tell if any of these storms could be severe, with trends being monitored through the beginning of this week. The next area of 1018 mb high pressure will gradually build toward Lake Michigan from the northern Great Plains Wednesday night through Friday, bringing slowly decreasing winds. A brief period of Small Craft Advisory conditions remains possible Tuesday afternoon & evening ahead of approaching low pressure, particularly to the north of North Point. Whether these conditions will be sustained & widespread enough for headlines remains uncertain at this time, with trends being monitored into tomorrow. Showers and thunderstorms return to nearshore zones Tuesday night into Wednesday along/ahead of an approaching cold front. Quigley && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  635 FXUS63 KMPX 231657 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1157 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight chance of thunderstorms across southwest Minnesota Monday morning - Scattered showers & thunderstorms likely Tuesday, a few strong storms possible during the afternoon/evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 143 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A cool late-sumer night is developing under clear high pressure, with highs falling into the upper 40s & low 50s across the area. Patchy fog is possible in spots through sunrise, mainly along the Minnesota River Valley & western Wisconsin. Similar temperatures to saturday this afternoon with highs again in the upper 70s, although winds will be much lighter with the high pressure overhead. The surface high begins shifting east Monday, with southerly flow returning ahead of the next weak cold front. This front looks to move through sometime late Monday into Tuesday, bringing our next chance for scattered showers & thunderstorms. Moisture return ahead of the front looks fairly limited though, and considerable spread remains within the ensemble guidance regarding precipitation coverage, so rain chances remain fairly low at this point. The first round of thunderstorms looks possible late Sunday night into Monday morning, but guidance generally keep the shortwave & bulk of the precipitation off to the west over the Dakotas. Another cold front moves through the region on Tuesday, but the general model timing brings the front through during the morning hours, which would mean that any widespread convection & appreciable rainfall could be limited. There are a few high-resolution models that are slower with the front, bringing it through during the late afternoon & evening. Should this slower timing occur, we could see a few strong or severe thunderstorms along the front with CAPE values reaching 1000-1500 J/kg during the afternoon along with 30-40 kts of deep shear. Showers & thunderstorms during the morning could always lead to reduced instability & a lower chance of afternoon storms as well. Otherwise, temperatures look to remain steady through next week with highs generally around 80 & lows in the 50s to low 60s. Ensemble guidance suggests we could get into a more active pattern over the weekend as a train of shortwaves passes over the Upper Midwest. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Satellite captures another afternoon of blossoming Cu across eastern MN and western WI, so have increased to SCT-BKN coverage at MSP/STC/RNH/EAU. Winds are much less intense than yesterday afternoon. Showers and a few storms are forecast to develop across the eastern Dakotas overnight, however there is strong agreement that precipitation will remain west of AXN & RWF. VFR high clouds (10k+ feet) associated with the convection will overspread the region from west to east heading into Monday morning. Patchy ground fog between 11-13z appears possible at RNH/EAU and a TEMPO for brief visibility reductions may be needed in a forthcoming TAF issuance. Winds turn southeasterly by daybreak at all sites. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind SW 10-20 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts. THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...Strus  633 FXUS65 KRIW 231657 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1057 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Monsoonal moisture continues this afternoon and evening but not as widely scattered as Saturday with localized flooding possible in the strongest storms. - Strong to severe storms possible (30-40%) looking more like the evening time frame after 6PM with a line of storms from Idaho capable of producing damaging winds up to 60 mph. - Monsoonal moisture will linger much of the week, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. Temperatures will be closer to seasonable for this time of year nearing the end of August. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 It was a typical monsoon day yesterday, with some areas, mainly in southwest and in Johnson and Natrona Counties getting a LOT of rain, causing some local flooding. Other areas saw nothing. And we continue to have some showers and embedded thunder around late tonight, although intensity is significantly less. And these will continue through the night, gradually becoming weaker and less numerous. We will have another round of showers and storms today. There are some differences. For one, precipitable water values are less today by about 20 percent in most locations. This should bring less coverage and somewhat lesser rainfall rates. The other difference is that there will be more steering flow today, generally about 10 to 15 knots at 700 millibars and 25 to 35 knots at 500 millibars. So storms should have more movement. This should decrease the chance of flooding somewhat. We still have an excessive rainfall outlook across most ares West of the Divide though, so the threat is still there. There is also the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. Most of the area is under a marginal risk of severe weather today. There could be some small hail, but this not the main risk. The main risk looks to be strong wind gusts. Roughly north and west of a Buffalo to Riverton to Lyman line has a Conditional 1 outlook for wind, or possible convective wind gusts to 75 mph. Soundings do show some inverted V profiles, especially across northwestern Wyoming where the surface will be drier, with low and mid level lapse rates close to 9 C/Km. This could lead to some strong downburst winds later today. Again, the best chance would be across the northwest but most areas will have a chance. And, like previous nights, most convection should end after sunset but a few showers and storms will likely linger through the night. As for temperatures, they should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with more sunshine expected. The rest of the week looks like more of the same as the annoying monsoonal moisture will hang around the area through at least Thursday and possibly into Friday as well. The models continue to have different ideas on which day will be more active with no real well defined shortwaves with changes from day to day. Precipitable water generally average about 125 to 150 percent of normal through the period though. So, at this point we went with a generic solution of mainly diurnal showers and storms each afternoon. Temperatures should remain fairly similar through the period, not very hot but averaging around 4 to 8 degrees above normal on average, with the possibility of a cooler day if there is more cloud cover than expected. Drier air may then work in for next weekend and bring a return to drier weather but uncertainty remains high on the exact timing. So, all in all, it continues to look like more of the same as the summer of the monsoon lives on in western and central Wyoming. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1056 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon between about 21z and 03z. Gusty outflow winds 30 to 50 knots are possible with any storm. While most activity ends this evening, models indicated a possible push of light showers across southwestern Wyoming (KBPI/KPNA/KRKS) between 01z and 07z, which could keep rain around those sites. No precipitation expected into Monday morning. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wittmann AVIATION...Hattings  670 FXUS65 KRIW 231657 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1057 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Monsoonal moisture continues this afternoon and evening but not as widely scattered as Saturday with localized flooding possible in the strongest storms. - Strong to severe storms possible (30-40%) looking more like the evening time frame after 6PM with a line of storms from Idaho capable of producing damaging winds up to 60 mph. - Monsoonal moisture will linger much of the week, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. Temperatures will be closer to seasonable for this time of year nearing the end of August. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 It was a typical monsoon day yesterday, with some areas, mainly in southwest and in Johnson and Natrona Counties getting a LOT of rain, causing some local flooding. Other areas saw nothing. And we continue to have some showers and embedded thunder around late tonight, although intensity is significantly less. And these will continue through the night, gradually becoming weaker and less numerous. We will have another round of showers and storms today. There are some differences. For one, precipitable water values are less today by about 20 percent in most locations. This should bring less coverage and somewhat lesser rainfall rates. The other difference is that there will be more steering flow today, generally about 10 to 15 knots at 700 millibars and 25 to 35 knots at 500 millibars. So storms should have more movement. This should decrease the chance of flooding somewhat. We still have an excessive rainfall outlook across most ares West of the Divide though, so the threat is still there. There is also the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. Most of the area is under a marginal risk of severe weather today. There could be some small hail, but this not the main risk. The main risk looks to be strong wind gusts. Roughly north and west of a Buffalo to Riverton to Lyman line has a Conditional 1 outlook for wind, or possible convective wind gusts to 75 mph. Soundings do show some inverted V profiles, especially across northwestern Wyoming where the surface will be drier, with low and mid level lapse rates close to 9 C/Km. This could lead to some strong downburst winds later today. Again, the best chance would be across the northwest but most areas will have a chance. And, like previous nights, most convection should end after sunset but a few showers and storms will likely linger through the night. As for temperatures, they should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with more sunshine expected. The rest of the week looks like more of the same as the annoying monsoonal moisture will hang around the area through at least Thursday and possibly into Friday as well. The models continue to have different ideas on which day will be more active with no real well defined shortwaves with changes from day to day. Precipitable water generally average about 125 to 150 percent of normal through the period though. So, at this point we went with a generic solution of mainly diurnal showers and storms each afternoon. Temperatures should remain fairly similar through the period, not very hot but averaging around 4 to 8 degrees above normal on average, with the possibility of a cooler day if there is more cloud cover than expected. Drier air may then work in for next weekend and bring a return to drier weather but uncertainty remains high on the exact timing. So, all in all, it continues to look like more of the same as the summer of the monsoon lives on in western and central Wyoming. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1056 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon between about 21z and 03z. Gusty outflow winds 30 to 50 knots are possible with any storm. While most activity ends this evening, models indicated a possible push of light showers across southwestern Wyoming (KBPI/KPNA/KRKS) between 01z and 07z, which could keep rain around those sites. No precipitation expected into Monday morning. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Wittmann