119 FXUS63 KGLD 231400 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 800 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another chance for storms this evening and Monday afternoon. 1 inch hail and 65 MPH winds are the primary threats. - Better chance for severe weather on Tuesday, with all hazards possible. - Above normal temperatures through at least mid week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1207 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A 500 mb high over New Mexico paired with a low over the Great Lakes regions keeps the Tri-State area under fairly persistent northwesterly flow. This will let temperatures warm up into the 90s, potentially briefly 100 degrees, over the next few days. More importantly, this give us daily chance at convection. Early this morning is a prime example as a shortwave trough is providing enough forcing for convection to move through the CWA. We are expecting this convection to largely remain sub-severe, however we cannot fully rule out a micro-burst leading to 70+ MPH winds or an isolated cell producing 1+ inch hail. The potential for these threats to come to fruition is less than 10%. There is a near equal chance for a line of these storms to train over the same area, leading to 1-3 inches of localized rainfall. Most likely, a large portion of the CWA will see a few hundredths up to an inch in some lucky spots. Behind the rain this morning, easterly winds may provide enough up- slope cooling to produce some patchy fog across the CWA. There's only a ~10% chance visibility drop below a mile in the fog, but isolated patches of dense fog are not impossible. This fog and some lingering stratus will work to stunt morning warming, keeping temperatures in the low 90s. Around 0Z this afternoon our next round of convection looks to be entering the CWA from the west from yet another shortwave trough. There looks to be a slightly better chance at severe weather with the Sunday evening convection. Scattered to clusters of supercells seems more likely. The more isolated a cell is, the better chance is will have to be severe, but there's a 60% chance storms cluster together early and would likely only muster 50-65 MPH winds and 0.75- 1.25 inch hail. If an isolated cell matures ahead of other convection, we could see 2.5 inch hail, a microburst of 80 MPH, and a brief tornado. Potential for this occurring is less than 5%. There is also a 25% chance of flash flooding from either training storms or right/left moving storms, as these motions are around 15-20 kts. The bulk of the convection looks to remain west of KS 27. All in all, storms are likely, but there is only a small, conditional threat of high-end severe weather. Convection looks to end around 6-9Z, and then temperatures will drop into the mid 60s, again. Chances are less than 10% for fog formation Monday morning. This will help temperatures warm into the upper 90s as a weak 850 mb low moves over the area, drawing more hot, southerly wind into the CWA. This low will be the source of our convection potential Monday afternoon and evening as it brings in a weak cold front. This convection looks to be fairly similar to Sunday's storms, but potentially starting a couple hours sooner. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 251 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Synoptically, the ridge to the west is forecast to mainly remain stationary over the Four Corners region, keeping us in northwesterly flow throughout the period. Guidance indicates the ridge may begin to amplify on Wednesday, and begin to de-amplify come Friday as a trough moves through the US/Canadian Border. Shortwaves are expected to move through the area during the week and into the weekend, increasing precipitation chances. High temperatures for the periodwill generally remain in the 90s. Wednesday appears to be the "coolest" day, with highs ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s. Friday is forecast to be the warmest, with highs in the upper 90s and the potential for a few locations to reach the low 100s. If the ridge begins to move eastward, then higher than forecasted temperatures could be seen. Winds are expected to remain calm to breezy throughout the period. Precipitation chances are present throughout the period. Wednesday and Thursday hold the highest potential, with PoPs in the 20-50% range, as shortwaves move through the area during the afternoon and evening hours. While instability and shear parameters appear sufficient for severe storms, model guidance suggests some variability in CAPE and shear values, which could lead to less organized storms and reduced severe chances. Precipitation chance then begins to taper off to 5-15% for Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1102 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions will largely dominate through the period for KGLD and KMCK, but will be broken up by showers and storms moving through the area and some fog and stratus around sunrise. KGLD has a better chance at seeing storms and stratus. Also around sunrise, southeasterly winds gusting in the 20-30 kts range are possible. This may briefly make the fog worse, but will clear us back out to VFR no later than 18Z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...Holdren AVIATION...CA  540 FXUS63 KIND 231407 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1007 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers cannot be ruled out across far northeastern counties late this afternoon into the evening - Cooler and less humid weather expected through Tuesday. - The next best chance for rain will be Wednesday evening through Thursday. && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 1006 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Minimal adjustments were needed to the forecast, mainly to temps to better match current observations. Today still looks mostly dry with afternoon highs reaching the mid 70s in our NE and into the low 80s in the SW. A few isolated showers are possible this afternoon into evening in the NE like was seen last evening. && .DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)... Issued at 304 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Today through Tuesday night... Mostly quiet weather conditions are expected early in the period with surface high pressure across the region. Aloft, upper troughing to start the period will help keep temperatures cooler. Upper troughing begins to shift east with ridging building in early in the work week, but seasonably cool temperatures will persist as surface flow remains northwesterly. A few showers cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon or evening across northeast portions of central Indiana due to a weak boundary pushing through. Confidence in showers developing is low as forcing and moisture will be marginal at best. However, a few CAMs suggest the potential for isolated convection to develop so low POPs were included for far northeastern counties. Light winds and mostly clear skies are expected to promote patchy fog development both early this morning and again late tonight into early Monday morning. Any fog that develops should quickly mix out after daybreak. Surface high pressure begins to shift east Tuesday, but surface riding will continue to promote quiet weather. Wednesday through Saturday... Long range guidance depicts multiple upper level waves traversing the region towards mid-late week returning precipitation chance to the forecast. The first wave approaches late Wednesday bringing a frontal boundary into the region. Modest forcing and sufficient moisture advection ahead of the disturbance supports the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low chances for convection linger into Thursday, but this will be heavily dependent on the location of the aforementioned boundary. At this time, guidance suggest lingering low-level moisture will be in place across central Indiana supporting the potential for diurnal convection. If the front moves through earlier in the day, expect mostly dry conditions. Long range guidance generally suggest surface high pressure builds back in late week providing quiet weather. Look for temperatures to remain slightly below normal. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 701 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Impacts: - Fog possible at the outlying terminals after 07-08Z tonight Discussion: Mainly VFR conditions to continue across central Indiana through the period as surface high pressure remains in control. Expect light northwest flow through 14Z before increasing to around 07-12 kt later in the day. Winds become light and variable tonight. Fog/BR is possible at the outlying sites after 07-08Z tonight. Some scattered diurnal cu is expected to develop today. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...KF AVIATION...Melo DISCUSSION...Melo  036 FXAK69 PAFG 231412 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 612 AM AKDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... - Temperatures will be their lowest today, ranging between the 50s to mid 60s before warming slightly into next week. - Another low entering the southwest Yukon increases northwesterly winds and a slight chance of wetting rains in the Upper Tanana Valley Sunday. - A low pressure system is expected to approach the West Coast Sunday night, bringing wetting rains to the the Western Interior. However, rainfall will return for the Central and Eastern Interior Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday as another wave of moisture associated with this low moves through. West Coast and Western Interior... - As a cold front moves its way inland, highs are expected in the 50s to near 60 through much of the upcoming week. - Another storm approaches the West Coast Sunday and is expected to bring yet another round of gusty winds, moderate to heavy rainfall, and locally higher tides. High Surf Advisories have been issued for the Southern Seward Peninsula, Norton Sound Coast, and Yukon Delta Coast. - Rainfall accumulations are expected to range from 0.25 to as high as 0.75 inches throughout the West Coast and Western Interior through Monday with locally higher amounts in the southern Seward Peninsula Kuskokwim Valley. North Slope and Brooks Range... - A brief period of wintry mix is possible near Prudhoe Bay and Kaktovik overnight Sunday morning. No ice accumulations are expected. - Traces of snow, about 1 to 2 inches is possible early Sunday morning within the North Central Brooks Range. - Expect highs in the 30s to 40s after the front passes through east of Umiat on Sunday. Highs are expected to rise above normal west of Umiat on Sunday and then widespread over the North Slope on Monday into the 50s and 60s. && .SYNOPSIS... Sunday afternoon, another low pressure system will approach the West Coast, bringing moderate to heavy rainfall, elevated water levels and gusty winds to the majority of the West Coast. The system will stall over the Western Interior on Monday before another round of moisture will push it eastward across Alaska on Tuesday. Widespread showers and wetting rains will be focused to the West Coast and Western Interior Monday, Central and Eastern Interior on Tuesday, and Brooks Range Monday through Wednesday. However, high waters and gusty onshore winds are expected to be the main concern through the beginning of the week, prompting High Surf Advisories to be issued for the Norton Sound and Y-K Delta coastlines. Another low pressure system will reach the West Coast Thursday morning, bringing another round of showers for the West Coast and Western Interior. && .SHORT TERM.../THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...The general ridging that is currently quickly moving over our region today from the west, bringing much of our AOR clearing & drying conditions will give way to a 990mb Gale-force low that will approach & move northeastward through the Bering Strait area for Sunday evening thorough Monday morning. This will bring strong onshore flow, giving high surf & potential concerns for some minor storm surge flooding funneling in around high tide for low-lying areas along the coast of the Norton Sound all the way from The Yukon Delta to just northwest of Nome. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for the Norton Sound area from generally Hooper Bay to Nome generally for Sunday afternoon into Tuesday. By Monday afternoon & evening, the low will have quickly moved far northeastward, well into the Chukchi Sea, & primarily impacting the coast of northwest Alaska with some gusty southwesterly winds into Tuesday morning as the low continues to quickly push northeastward, into the Beaufort Sea, & away from the state of Alaska. Since general trofing will be set in over the state for Monday & Tuesday, generally increased cloudiness with scattered showers, & generally high temperatures in the 50s & 60s are anticipated with the warmest temperatures in the southeastern portion of our area, especially around the Upper Tanana Valley, which may still reach near 70 as they will be more dry & have less cloud-cover by the general westerly or southwesterly rain-shadowing downslope flow over that area. The exception to that rule will be for today, Sunday, especially during the afternoon into the evening hours, for the Upper Tanana Valley, including Tok, the southwesterly downslope / Chinook flow off the Alaska range will subside in favor of a "Tanana Valley Jet" setup, which will bring up to 20 to 30 mph northwesterly wind gusts between a building ridge of high pressure to the west & lower pressure to the east. This will work to help keep temperatures out of the 70s & increase Relative Humidity values. In addition to this, trofing originating from a low pretty far to the east over the NT of Canada will move through, today, bringing increased clouds, scattered showers & a slight chance of a thunderstorm, further helping decrease high temperatures to around 60 deg, keeping minimum Relative Humidity values in the 60s% today, with rainfall totals reaching up to around 0.1" around the Tok / Upper Tanana Valley area. && .LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...More short-lived ridging builds-in, pushing across the state, once again, for Wednesday through Thursday before it is pushed out by another Bering Sea low, moving east-northeastward for late in the work-week, taking a more southerly track, bringing the brunt of the onshore-flow & high surf / coastal flooding concerns to the general Nunivak Island area & southward just to the south of our AOR. This low will rapidly weaken as it comes ashore near far southern Norton Sound & pushes across the state, but it will still be bringing us more cloud-cover, isolated to scattered showers, & moderated high temperatures to the region, once again, as general weak trofing remains in place over our AOR through the rest of the long term forecast period while ridging approaches the state from the west for the end of the weekend / beginning of the next week timeframe. Coastal Hazard Potential...For Sunday into Tuesday, A Gale-force low moves northeastward from the Gulf of Anadyr to the Bering Strait to the Chukchi Sea. This will bring generally southwesterly onshore- flow to the Norton Sound, generally from Hooper Bay to Nome, bringing high tide values up to around 3 ft above normal high tide values for the Yukon River Delta area, up to 6 ft above the normal high tide line for the eastern/central Norton Sound Coast, & up to 5 ft above the normal high tide line for the northern Norton Sound coast / southern Seward Peninsula coast with the highest values around Golovin. These values are high enough that some beach erosion may occur. For more information, see the High Surf Advisories that have been issued for those areas for late weekend into early next week. For an area generally from point Hope to Point Barrow and from generally around Teller to Deering, expect high tides 1 to 3 ft above normal levels. From a general Kotzebue to Kivalina area, expect 2 to 4 ft above normal high tide levels. See the Special Weather Statement for those areas for more information. && .FIRE WEATHER...For today, Sunday, for our main area of concern, the Upper Tanana Valley, including Tok, winds will become more gusty out of the northwest instead of the southwesterly downslope / Chinook flow as winds blow from building ridge of high pressure to the west toward an area of lowpressure to the east. Wind gusts up to between 20 & 30 mph are possible with this "Tanana Valley Jet" setup, today, especially during the afternoon hours. This will work to help keep temperatures out of the 70s & increase Relative Humidity values. Also, the low to the east, will pass trofing down through the far eastern areas like the Upper Tanana Valley & 40 Mile Country, which will bring increased cloud cover over that area may bring some generally scattered showers with a slight chance of a thunderstorm as it moves through today. Minimum Relative Humidity values this afternoon look to be around 50s & 60s % with high temperatures in the 50s to lower-60s for most areas in our AOR, today. The Upper Tanana Valley area looks to receive up to around 0.1" of rainfall, today. This will work to assist in fighting the ongoing fire. The southwesterly warming, drying downslope / Chinook wind flow returns on Monday for the Upper Tanana Valley as the ridge of high pressure moves eastward with its axis setting up over the general Alaska Range area. This will also bring warmer & drier weather to the rest of the Interior through Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY...Through the short & long term forecast periods, a couple of wet Gale-force lows are expected to march toward the Bering Sea coastal area, 1 for late-weekend into early next week & the other for late in the work-week. Both of these systems look to bring appreciable rainfall amounts, especially for the West Coast and Western Interior, but they are not expected to bring any stream- flooding concerns to the region as current state of the rivers remain low. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ822. High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 4 PM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ824. High Surf Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ825. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ801-802-806. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ801-802-853-854. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ803-804-810-850. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 4 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ803. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ805-807-852-856. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ805. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ806-852. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ808- 809-811-853-855. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ811-857. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ812-858. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ816. Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ817-854. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ850. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ851. Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ853. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ857. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...DONNER SYNOPSIS...DONNER SHORT TERM...CHAMBERS LONG TERM...CHAMBERS COASTAL HAZARDS...CHAMBERS FIRE WEATHER...CHAMBERS HYDROLOGY...CHAMBERS  459 FXUS63 KJKL 231425 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1025 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Noticeably cooler and less humid air arrives behind a cold front to start the new week. - Chances for a few showers and thunderstorms return around midweek. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1025 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 14Z sfc analysis shows high pressure nudging into Kentucky from the west. This is working to clear the morning valley fog while it brings in slightly drier and cooler air. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid upper 60s to lower 70s. Meanwhile, amid light winds, dewpoints are generally in the low 60s north and in the mid to upper 60s south. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 520 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Early this morning, an enlongated upper low was centered over sections of the Great Lakes with an upper trough axis southeast into the mid OH Valley and Central to Southern Appalachians to the Carolinas with an upper ridge centered in NM with ridging extending across portions of the western Conus into the Central Conus/Plains. Drier air has been gradually moving into the Lower OH Valley and eastern KY behind a cold front though the drier air has made a bit less progress into the more southern and southeastern locations as a ridge of sfc high pressure builds into the Lower OH valley from the mid and upper MS Valley regions. Rather extensive fog mainly in the valleys has spread into some no valley locations. Some observation sites such as KEKQ, KSME, and KI35 have recently reported dense fog and fog appears on the dense side at some KY Mesonet station locations as well as on a few of the KYTC cameras. With that in mind, have opted to issue an SPS for fog over the next few hours for areas generally south and southeast of the I-64 corridor. Today and tonight, gradual 500 mb height rises are anticipated as the upper low meanders to the eastern Great Lakes and sections of the mid Atlantic states and axis of the upper trough remains east of the Commonwealth. At the same time, the sfc ridge of high pressure will build across the Commonwealth and into sections of the mid OH Valley by late tonight. A dry airmass for this time of year will be ushered into eastern KY with PW per the 00Z HREF expected in the 5th to 20th percentile. This will set the stage for not much in the way of cloud cover today other than diurnally driven cumulus following the lifting and dissipation of the fog through the 9 AM to 10 AM EDT timeframe this morning. Mixing should result in dewpoints dropping a bit below NBM deterministic values. This airmass will also be cooler as well as drier and this should support highs around 5 degrees below normal for the day on Sunday. The pattern should again favor valley fog formation along the rivers, larger creeks, and area lakes tonight. The normally colder locations may drop to as low as 52 or 53 tonight with the drier airmass in place with more in the way of solid mid 50s for valleys where fog forms and ridgetop locations on the order of the upper 50s to near 60. On Monday, 500 mb heights should continue a general upward trend as the axis of the upper trough moves further east of the Lower OH Valley and Appalachians and upper ridging centered in the NM vicinity builds in sections of the Central Conus/Plains and toward the MS Valley. One more shortwaves will be moving around this ridging and near the mid MS Valley area by Monday evening. Highs for Monday should be similar to Sunday with northwest to west northwest flow aloft prevailing. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 450 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 The long term period should begin with an upper low centered over Quebec and an axis of an upper trough south into the mid Atlantic states to the Carolinas to VA while an upper level ridge should be centered over NM and extend into portions of the western Conus as well as the Central to Southern Plains/portions of the Central Conus. Also at that point, another upper level low should be near the Saskatchewan and Manitoba border with an associated trough south into the eastern MT and easter WY border area with the Dakotas. Further west, an upper trough is expected to extend from west of the coast of BC to west of the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a frontal zone should extend from the eastern Carolinas across the Gulf coast states into the Southern Plains on Monday evening while a sfc ridge of high pressure should extend for the Appalachians to the western Great Lakes while a low pressure system should be near the Manitoba and Saskatchewan border with a trailing cold front into the Dakotas with the frontal zone extending into the western Conus. From Monday night to Tuesday night, a weak shortwave moving around the ridging over much of the Rockies and into parts of the Central Conus should move through the OH Valley and Commonwealth but it will be moisture starved with mainly just some passing high clouds. Some height rises at 500 mb are progged during the day on Tuesday, before near neutral height tendencies or some subtle 500 mb height falls are forecast for Tuesday night as troughing remains from eastern Canada into the Northeast Conus/eastern seaboard and the upper ridge remains centered in southern NM thought it is progged to build north through sections of the Rockies. Meanwhile the upper low initially just north of ND should trek gradually into Ontario and near the northern Great Lakes. This leaves northwest to west northwest flow aloft across the Commonwealth and Lower OH Valley into the central to southern Appalachians. During this time, a ridge of sfc high pressure will shift across the Lower to Mid MS Valley and Central Appalachians and become centered in the mid Atlantic states by late Tuesday night. At the same time, additional disturbances moving around the ridging centered in NW should interact with the frontal/baroclinic zone initially south of eastern KY with a sfc wave tracking to near the confluence of the OH and MS Rivers late Tuesday night while further east the boundary lifts into the TN Valley as a warm front and approaches. This may lead to a bit of increase in moisture and some cloud cover at mid and high levels late Tuesday night. Sfc high pressure will remain the dominant feature with a drier airmass, with PW on the order of 20th to 30th percentile if not most of the time lower per LREF, in place will allow for lows in the mid 50s to near 60 on ridges and the development of valley fog along the rivers, larger creeks, and areas lakes both Monday night and Tuesday night. Daytime highs on Tuesday trend closer to normal for late August. Wednesday to Thursday night, a shortwave trough from the mid MS Valley to the Ozarks regions should move east into the Lower OH Valley and parts of the TN Valley and SOutheast as an upper low initially over Ontario and the northern Great Lakes weakens as it moves further east and begins to interact and merge with an upper low/trough centered over the Hudson Bay vicinity. This leaves an upper trough axis from the Hudson and James Bay area south across the Central Great Lakes to the OH and TN Valleys to Southeast by late Thursday night. During this period the upper ridge in the western/southwestern Conus becomes centered further west and southeast to the south of the Four Corners region with the axis of the upper ridge extending into theSouthern Plains with another axis north and northeast into MT and Alberta and Saskatchewan that shifts east across WY and eastern MT to Saskatchewan. At the same time, an upper low moves into BC with the trailing trough moving into the Pacific northwest and sections of the interior northwest. Meanwhile as the initial shortwave trough moves across the area at midweek the sfc wave should track over or near eastern KY while the sfc low in the Great Lakes reaches the Northeast and sends an associated cold front across eastern KY Thursday. This will lead to isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm potential over eastern KY that may tend to peak on Thursday near and ahead of a cold front. The consensus of guidanceto midis for a return of near normal temperatures. Friday to Saturday, the upper trough axis is progged to shift east with a broad trough in place from Ontario and Quebec into sections of the eastern Conus. Guidance has a trend of rising 500 mb heights and more of a zonal/westerly flow at that point with upper level ridges centered near Bermuda and the southwest Conus to end the period. This will lead to some initial small chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly on Friday afternoon before rising heights likely suppresses convection on Saturday. Temperatures should remain near normal for late August. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Fog lingered at issuance mainly for locations south of I-64 with all but KLOZ and KIOB among the TAF sites affected by MVFR to IFR if not locally lower reductions initially. This fog should lift and dissipate through 14Z, with VFR conditions generally prevailing through the end the period. Valley fog may again develop by the 04Z and 06Z timeframe, and KLOZ and KSME may be affected per guidance with lower confidence for KSJS and KJKL with no reductions for that period included at this point. Winds should average less than 10KT as high pressure settles across the area. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...JP  174 FXUS61 KOKX 231444 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1044 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Chances for showers and thunderstorms into this afternoon ahead of a cold frontal passage. Some thunderstorms could be strong with a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. 2) Possible lingering showers Monday into early Monday evening. Otherwise mainly dry with high pressure eventually building back in Monday night into midweek. 3) Chances for showers and thunderstorm return Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Heights lowering in mid levels as a closed low moves eastward. This will introduce colder temperatures aloft and help keep up convective chances. Ahead of a wave of low pressure, low level environment will become more unstable. CAMs depict convection developing more rapidly this morning especially with diurnal heating. The focus seems to be the first half of the day as CAMs really start depleting convective coverage late afternoon into the evening. This will be a high shear, low CAPE environment so there is potential for some thunderstorms to be strong to even severe. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. Threats with thunderstorms will be heavy rain, gusty winds and small hail. There is a marginal risk for damaging winds and large hail. The thunderstorms are expected to be moving fast enough with the shear to mitigate flooding potential. However, minor flooding will still be a possibility with the thunderstorms, especially for low lying, urban and poor drainage areas. Temperatures do not deviate much from normal values through today. .KEY MESSAGE 2... The closed low in the mid levels will continue slowly moving east tonight through Monday and will then slowly move farther northeast. The heights continue to lower tonight through Monday and then will start to rise Monday night. National blend of model dataset keeps dry conditions but CAMs indicate otherwise for Monday with diurnal instability. Would expect isolated to widely scattered showers on Monday with a slight chance of thunderstorms as well. Manually put this in the forecast because national blend of models is not reflecting this potential in its forecast. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions tonight through Monday. A higher confidence of dry conditions for the entire area Monday night through midweek with high pressure building in from the west. Aloft, the height rises continue and the pattern transitions from a trough to quasi-zonal. Temperatures do not deviate much from normal values tonight through midweek. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Model guidance continues to show an upper level trough pushing southeast into the Northeast Thursday into Friday. At the surface, areas of low pressure approach from the west. This will be associated with an approaching frontal system. The forecast has increasing chances of showers Thursday, with showers becoming likely Thursday night for most locations. The forecast showers continue into Friday. There will be possible thunderstorms as well but those probabilities will be less than the showers. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front moves through later today, before high pressure gradually builds from the west Monday. Line of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms continues to push through eastern LI and S CT, with conditions improving to VFR behind it. MVFR cigs could still linger at times at terminals off to the west for an hour or two. Continue to hold onto PROB30s this afternoon for TSRA given potential for additional convection to fire ahead of the trailing cold front. Chances decrease after 19Z or so. All terminals eventually improve to VFR this afternoon. Windsbecome SW or WSW into late morning and early afternoon, speeds generally at or under 10 kt outside of any thunderstorms. Gusts up to 20 kt later this afternoon are possible for some terminals. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments possible for changing conditions. Timing of any SHRA/TSRA this afternoon could be off by an hour. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Monday through Wednesday: VFR. WSW gusts around 20 kt Monday PM. Thursday: VFR AM, chance of sub-VFR and PM SHRA. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Conditions on the marine zones are still expected to remain below small craft advisory thresholds during the marine forecast period. Pressure gradient overall remains relatively weak. Rip Currents: A moderate risk is expected for both today and Monday. The swell will be primarily from the SE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...DR MARINE...JM  365 FXUS61 KLWX 231445 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1045 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added in a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm to the east of the Blue Ridge this afternoon into this evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Slight chance for a shower or storm this afternoon, then dry conditions anticipated through early portions of the week. - 2) Warmer and more humid conditions return mid-week, with thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Slight chance for a shower or storm this afternoon, then dry conditions anticipated through early portions of the week. Current water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low in place over the Great Lakes, with broad troughing extending further out along the East Coast. Locally, we are situated just downstream of the primary trough axis. Drier air should continue to advect in at low-levels within westerly flow over the course of the day, but some weak instability (around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) may develop by peak heating. Forecast soundings show very dry air in place at mid-levels along with a weakness/slightly warmer layer likely tied to large scale subsidence. CAMs suggest that a few showers or even a thunderstorm or two may potentially form later this afternoon, especially to the east of the Blue Ridge as the upper trough axis moves through. However, most locations are expected to remain dry. While conditions overall appear relatively hostile toward deeper convection developing, if a deeper storm were to develop, there could be a conditional threat for some small hail, given cooler, drier thermal profiles, minimal CAPE below the freezing level, and straight line hodographs with very little low-level shear, but respectable shear (around 35-40 kts 0-6 km) through the mid- upper levels. Any showers or storms should quickly dissipate with loss of daytime heating this evening. On Monday, we are expecting a cold front to pass through our region. Behind the front, northwesterly winds usher in dry air from central Canada. These sub-60F dewpoints could persist until midweek. With high pressure building over the Appalachian Mountains, drier and cooler conditions could last until late Tuesday. Overall, we are expecting highs to remain in the 70s and mid 80s early this week. Overnight lows ranging in the 50s and 60s throughout the region. KEY MESSAGE 2...Warmer and more humid conditions return mid- week, with thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday. Beginning Wednesday, a warm tropical air mass tracks northeast over the Mid-Atlantic, bringing humidity back to summertime normals as well as a gradual increase in temperatures. A shortwave upper-level trough will begin to form over the Great Lakes region and track eastward towards the coast between Wednesday and Thursday, and this combined with the increase in heat & humidity will create additional chances for rain & thunderstorm development across the region. Model guidance continues to show only marginal chances regarding any of these thunderstorms becoming severe, with some uncertainty remaining in the overall track of this system. Current guidance suggests that this system could be slow-moving across the region, with rain chances potentially extending into the end of the week as this system slowly tracks offshore. Overall, expect increasing humidity along with a few chances for rain late next week as this system slowly tracks towards the coast. Upper-level zonal flow takes over as this trough tracks east. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Predominantly VFR conditions are anticipated across terminals through Wednesday. There is a very, very small chance for a passing shower or storms at IAD, DCA, BWI, orMTN this afternoon, but chances are too low to directly mention in the TAFs at this time. Winds today through Tuesday remain out of the WNW to NW, gusting up to 20 knots during the afternoon hours (except CHO which will be 5 to 8 knots lower). Periodic showers & thunderstorms could create temporarily reduced conditions at terminals during the afternoon & evening hours Wednesday and Thursday. Northwest winds shift southeasterly by Wednesday night. && .MARINE... Winds turn out of the WNW to NW through Tuesday, and should remain sub-SCA throughout that period for the most part. A few gusts near 18 knots are possible, especially further north and during the afternoon hours, but not seeing a prolonged period enough to warrant an SCA at this time. Winds shift southerly by Wednesday, with winds gusting above SCA thresholds later that evening in a classic southerly channeling event ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds could reach marginal SCA conditions again Thursday evening as a cold front passes through the region. Scattered showers & thunderstorms in this timeframe could also create locally gusty winds over the waters, perhaps necessitating SMWs. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tidal anomalies are expected to decrease over the course of the day today as winds turn out of the west. Annapolis may reach Action Stage around high tide, but no tidal flooding is anticipated. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJL/KJP/SRT AVIATION...CJL/KJP/SRT MARINE...CJL/SRT  443 FXUS62 KKEY 231449 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1049 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Conditions remain somewhat favorable for an island cloud line and associated waterspouts today. - Rain and thunder chances will gradually return to near normal by the early to middle part of the week. - Highs near 90 and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s suggest afternoon heat indices will peak at 105 to 108 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1016 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Surface analysis continues to depict a split ridge pattern, with a climatological high pressure system centered between Bermuda and the Azores in the North Atlantic, separated from a weak area of high pressure over the Gulf by a weak trough north of the Leeward and Windward Islands. The 12z morning sounding at KEY sampled quasi-steady geopotential heights, with an uncapped environment, along with an unstable and moist environment below the 850 mb isobaric surface. The sounding also sampled mean southerly flow up to around 5 kft, with GOES-19 visible satellite imagery indicating a discernible Cuban shadow progressing across the Straits of Florida. A bit of a challenging forecast for the balance of today. Convective allowing model (CAM) guidance suggests possible cloud line formation later this afternoon, as heating of the South Florida Mainland causes winds to variable for a bit this afternoon. We are a bit skeptical of this, as ridging in the North Atlantic continues to become better established. The forecast calls for slight rain and thunder chances from any developing cloud line, temperatures peaking near 90, and dew points in the normal August mid to upper 70s. No changes proposed to the inherited forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1016 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Conditions will be somewhat favorable for island cloud line formation, mainly in the vicinity of the Lower and Middle Keys. Any cloud line may produce a few waterspouts. Mariners are reminded that a waterspout would most likely appear beneath a dark, flat bottom of a building cumulus line, just at the hint of rain. From synopsis, a split ridge pattern remains in place across the Florida Keys coastal waters. This will promote generally light to gentle southeast to east breezes through tonight, becoming variable at times during the afternoon hours. While North Atlantic ridging builds westward, east to southeast breezes will become more established from tonight through Thursday, becoming gentle and at times moderate during the overnight hours. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1016 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH island terminals through 12z Monday morning. Near surface winds will remain mostly southeasterly, though there is the potential for a period of light and variable winds this afternoon continuing into the early evening hours. In addition, an island cloud line may develop late this afternoon or this evening, supporting the risk for vicinity showers and thunderstorms. Mention of VCSH is not explicitly in the TAF for now, with low confidence in cloud line development, although this will be monitored over the next several hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 84 91 84 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 91 83 91 82 / 10 10 10 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest