142 FXUS62 KTAE 231308 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 908 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 907 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Daily chances of showers and storms will continue for the next several days. Overall, rain chances are lowest for today, then increase through the workweek. The strongest storms are expected to produce wind gusts of 40-60 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain. - Hot temperatures combined with just enough humidity are expected to result in peak heat index values of 108-112F this afternoon across portions of the Florida panhandle and big bend, prompting a heat advisory in those areas. && .UPDATE... Issued at 907 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Forecast is on track this morning. No updates required. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 For today, some drier air will make it into our northernmost areas, which will knock a few degrees off the heat index values there this afternoon. In terms of thunderstorm chances, there is still some discrepancy in the hi-res guidance regarding coverage of storms during the afternoon hours. If storms can get going, then there will be strong instability and some mid-level dry air to work with for some strong wind gusts in the strongest storms. The SPC has a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms over a large portion of the area for this afternoon. Otherwise, it will be quite hot with many areas in the mid to upper 90s. Somewhat drier air is expected to limit most heat index values to below 108F, but one exception is expected to be across portions of the Florida panhandle and big bend close to the coast and in the Apalachicola National Forest. In those areas, a heat advisory is in effect this afternoon for peak heat index values of 108-112F. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Heading into the workweek, we'll have a large ridge over the southwest US with weak disturbances riding up and around the ridge. This kind of northwest flow regime aloft can lead to rounds of more organized clusters of showers and storms moving into our area. Thus, rain chances will gradually increase to near or above seasonal normals, but the exact timing of these disturbances is hard to pin down. If organized clusters of storms develop, then the chances for strong to potentially severe storms would increase. We'll have to watch for this potential on Monday in particular. Summertime heat and humidity will continue to roll along with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the 100-110 range each day, hottest across Florida. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Some fog and low stratus has formed around a few of our TAF sites this morning, notably KECP. This fog/stratus should lift shortly after sunrise, giving way to generally VFR conditions most of the day. Have maintained PROB30 groups for all TAF sites, although hi-res guidance has eased back on rain chances some this afternoon. There is a low, less than 20%, chance of TAF sites experiencing fog/stratus again Monday morning; however, those chances would increase should any rain fall over any of the sites near/after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Gentle to occasionally moderate southwesterly flow will continue over the waters for the next several days. Scattered showers and storms are possible each day, mainly in the overnight and morning hours, decreasing in the afternoon. The main exception will be for any clusters of storms that move off the coast this week during the late afternoon or evening hours. Seas will remain around 1 to 2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER...Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Generally light west to southwest transport winds will continue through the next several days. Dispersions will remain good overall each afternoon, though pockets of high dispersions are possible near the I-75 corridor Monday into Tuesday as mixing heights increase. Isolated storms are possible today with increasing coverage of storms again Monday and Tuesday. Gusty, erratic winds and dangerous lightning strikes will be possible. Some drier air moves into the area today before moistening back up again Monday into Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall over the next several days. If the storms are slow-moving, then they could produce several inches of rain in a short period of time. This would lead to some nuisance to isolated flash flood concerns, particularly is low- lying or poor drainage areas. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 98 75 95 73 / 20 20 70 40 Panama City 94 79 92 77 / 20 10 40 40 Dothan 97 74 95 72 / 30 20 60 30 Albany 97 73 95 72 / 20 20 40 30 Valdosta 97 74 96 72 / 20 20 60 50 Cross City 93 74 94 73 / 50 10 30 10 Apalachicola 92 79 91 77 / 20 10 30 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ012>015-027-112-114-115-118-127-326-426. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM....DVD AVIATION...Reese MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...DVD  607 FXAK68 PAFC 231314 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 514 AM AKDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)... An upper level trough moving across Southcentral has closed off into an upper level low progressing across the Gulf this morning. A small surface low has spun up over the central Gulf in tandem with the upper level disturbance, and this is helping to enhance northwest winds up to Small Craft range near and to the southeast of Kodiak Island. The upper level pattern across Southcentral has become more disorganized, but northerly flow is ever so slightly starting to pick up as an upper ridge begins to encroach onto the region from the west. Rain showers have mostly dissipated as the upper support for lift shifts south with the low into the Gulf, with some breaks in cloud cover even starting to form across the Mat-Su Valleys. Patchy fog has developed in some of the spots that have partially cleared up, particularly across the Susitna Valley. Looking to the forecast, things are still on track for a rather pleasant afternoon across much of the region as drying offshore flow continues to ramp up in between the high pressure ridge building over Southwest and the low exiting to the south. Lingering cloud cover and patchy fog will clear up by around midday, allowing for a much warmer and sunnier afternoon compared to what we've seen so far this weekend. Even spots such as Seward and Whittier will enjoy warm temperatures reaching the mid 60s as offshore winds mostly keep the sea breeze and any marine stratus at bay. Monday is looking similarly mild overall as the upper ridge shifts east into Southcentral, but cloud cover will begin to increase as the day progresses, especially across the western half of the region. This will mark the beginning of our next potential rain-maker set to arrive later in the week. By Monday night, a belt of moist, southwesterly flow moving out ahead of a extensive frontal system progressing across the Bering and western Mainland will extend into Southcentral as the ridge in place begins to slump south and lose amplitude. Several weak impulses riding with the strong southwesterlies will combine with warm, moist advection to generate light, steady rainfall spreading across the Kenai Peninsula and Mat-Su Valleys by late Monday night. More widespread rain will spread across nearly all of Southcentral on Tuesday as a potent, negatively-tilted shortwave trough riding along the frontal zone arrives from Southwest and produces deeper lift along the main moisture axis. As the trough and front move inland over the Interior and Southwest, a strong south-north pressure gradient will develop across Southcentral, supporting strong and gusty gap winds out of the Copper River Valley, Knik Valley and Turnagain Arm for much of the day on Tuesday. In short, don't expect the summery weather today and tomorrow to last long! -AS && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)... The active and progressive pattern continues through early this week as the next low and associated frontal system becomes better organized today in the western Bering. Looking at the upper levels, a compact and fast-moving shortwave that has lifted out of the North Pacific into the Bering Sea phases with a larger upper level trough emerging off Kamchatka today. Farther downstream, an upper level ridge slides east from the eastern Bering over Southwest Alaska, giving Southwest Alaska a period of drier weather and light winds. Satellite imagery this morning shows a mix of clear skies and pockets of low stratus across Southwest Alaska as the aforementioned ridge axis nudges east through this morning. As the ridge pushes farther east, the last of the gusty northwesterly winds through gaps and passes along the Alaska Peninsula dissipate this morning as the pressure gradient relaxes. Dry conditions, light winds, and periodic breaks in the clouds continue through this evening across Southwest Alaska ahead of the arrival of the next front. Across the western Bering, a low end gale-force front becomes better organized as its parent low continues to strengthen and track northeastward toward the Bering Strait through tonight. South to southwesterly small-craft winds continue today across much of the Bering and Aleutians, while a swath of gale-force winds expand in coverage across northern Bering this morning. The strongest winds are forecast to stretch from the Gulf of Anadyr to just north of the Pribilof Islands as the front tracks east today. The front quickly weakens as it reaches the western Alaska coast by tonight, but is still expected to bring a push of southerly small-craft winds up Kuskokwim Bay and to the Kuskokwim Delta coast this evening through early Monday morning. Light rain pushing east across the Bering reaches the Pribilof Islands by this afternoon while heavier rainfall reaches the Southwest coast by this evening. Steady rain continues across much of Southwest Alaska through Tuesday morning as a stream of moisture from the North Pacific and a shortwave rounding the base of the trough reinforces the front as it moves inland and dissipates. The active pattern continues into midweek as the next front enters the western Bering by Wednesday morning, bringing yet another round of winds and rain across the Bering and Aleutians. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)... Wednesday, model divergence remains high. Both ECMWF and GFS advertise a low entering the southwestern Bering Sea, however, the EC shows a stronger low moving in, with stronger winds and a precipitation core dragged in from the northern Pacific. The GFS solution is more muted, with a weak low pressure system, loose pressure gradients, favoring weaker winds and lighter precipitation across the Western Aleutians. GFS and EC however are more progressive, bringing the low into the northwestern Bering by Thursday morning, with the Canadian solution lagging the low still in the southwest Bering, over the Western Aleutians. By Friday agreement improves, with increasing consensus that the low moves into the eastern Bering Southwest mainland by Friday afternoon. The low does not slow on its track across Nunivak Island, Kuskokwim Delta, and over greater Bristol Bay by Saturday morning. Widespread small craft advisory winds with smaller areas of gales will dive across the Pribilof Islands late Friday afternoon, and across the western Alaska Peninsula by Saturday morning. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the TAF period in general. There will still be a chance for patchy fog or low stratus to form as upper level cloud cover breaks up this morning. Any fog that does develop near the terminal will be short-lived, likely dissipating prior to 20Z. && $$  728 FXPQ50 PGUM 231317 CCA AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Tiyan GU 1117 PM ChST Sun Aug 23 2026 Corrected Hydrology Section. .Marianas Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows high-end scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Marianas coastal waters. Model guidance suggests combined seas of 7 to 9 ft. && .Discussion... The Marianas is located within an unstable weather pattern due to Typhoon Saudel's (17W) monsoonal tail, cross-equatorial flow, and a col to the east-northeast. Scattered showers today have steadily increased to numerous across coastal waters, which will eventually make its way over the islands before midnight. Gentle to moderate southwesterlies with strong, convective gusts are expected at least through Monday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring and will persist possibly through the rest of the week. There is uncertainty regarding timing and intensity of heavy showers on Monday, so the forecast reflects a 60 percent chance of showers. The previously anticipated wet period starting on Tuesday looks to be delayed a day or two, with flooding and mudslide potential most likely in the latter half of the week. The forecast reflects the slight lull in shower activity midweek before picking back up by the weekend. && .Marine... Combined seas of 7 to 9 ft tonight will increase to 8 to 10 ft tomorrow, so the previously issued Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Monday afternoon. In addition, strong, convective gusts associated with heavy showers will give way to choppy seas. A long-period southwesterly swell from Tropical Depression 19W (located well to the west) will induce hazardous surf after tonight, and allow the high risk of rip currents to remain along west-facing reefs. There is a moderate risk of lightning throughout the week. && .Hydrology... A reinvigorated monsoon trough with a potential embedded tropical disturbance will likely develop in the area and bring periods of heavy rainfall to the Marianas starting midweek. Between Wednesday and Friday, early ensemble guidance suggests 4 to 6 inches with a low probability of up to 10 inches for Guam and Rota, and 3 to 5 inches with a low probability of up to 8 inches for Saipan and Tinian. Heavy showers will moisten soils throughout the event and increase potential for mudslides. Residents of the Marianas need to closely monitor this developing situation as flood watches, advisories and flash flood warnings could be issued later in the week. && .Tropical Systems... Typhoon Saudel (17W) is centered near 22N140E, moving northwest at 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 125 mph near the center, with this intensity persisting through Monday. Saudel is expected to make a slight turn toward the west-northwest with little change in forward speed through Monday as it heads toward Okinawa. Tropical Depression 19W is centered near 14N136E, moving east- northeast at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds remain at 35 mph near the center, with this intensity persisting through Monday, remaining a Tropical Depression. TD 19W is to expected to continue to move into a a favorable environment while pivoting toward departing TY Saudel well to the north-northeast, with some resemblance of a distant Fujiwara Effect. This is expected to help further prime the environment around the Marianas for another enhancement in the monsoon or potentially a weaker tropical disturbance to develop in the area, bringing in another period of heavy rainfall to the region later this week (more details in the Hydrology Section). For more information on Typhoon Saudel (17W), please refer to the Tropical Cyclone Warning from JTWC under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW, and the TC Public Advisory from the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM. For more information on Tropical Depression 19W, please refer to the Tropical Cyclone Warning from JTWC under WMO header WTPN33 PGTW, and the TC Public Advisory from the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ33 PGUM. && .Eastern Micronesia... Pohnpei and Kosrae - short term: The main forecast challenge was determining rainfall coverage/potential through the first 36 hours. Currently, fairly persistent shower activity has been ongoing for the past few hours. However, recent infrared satellite imager shows rapid warming of cloud top temperatures, while visible imager in addition to infrared overcast skies. This is often a "stratification effect" after a prolonged period of heavier showers and thunderstorm occurrence. Thus, it's highly likely that some high cloud-based light rainfall continues from the a modest directional and speed shear environment (based on the Pohnpei sounding and pattern recognition in the numerical forecast guidance). Typically, this "stable bubble" persists for 6 to 10 hours. With this in mind, we do expect increased shower activity to redevelop, and this was reflected in tonight's forecast. The thought of adding "after midnight wording" was strongly considered, for conveying when the best rainfall potential would occur. However, good speed convergence in the low-level streamline analysis, along with recent development south of Kosrae, precluded this decision. Majuro - short term: Majuro too involved a little bit of a tricky forecast tonight and tomorrow. as the best convergence and attendant convective development is south and east of you per satellite imagery. However, short term forecast guidance strongly suggests this backbuilding line of convection will slide north with time, potentially even before midnight. This is supported in the latest satellite imagery as well. Thus we precluded any more specific temporal refinement to the forecast. Extended outlook for all three locations (36 hours to day 7): Forecast guidance and pattern recognition all points to at least scattered shower potential continuing into next weekend, with a few thunderstorms mixed in from time to time. A tropical disturbance/circulation located east of Pohnpei/northeast of Kosrae will not only maintain respectable convergence in the cyclonically- enhanced monsoon flow, but there may be a few periods of locally increased shower coverage and intensity. Marine and surf conditions: A west to southwest primary and secondary swell will continue through the weekend at Pohnpei and Kosrae, with a slight backing of swell direction due to the previously-mentioned cyclonic flow in the monsoon environment, will allow for a southwest and south swell direction to continue at Majuro. This swell regime will continue to be augmented by the persistent cross-equatorial flow/swell pattern. The net result is elevated surf concerns will continue the next several days at Kosrae and Majuro as well. Otherwise, mainly gentle to light winds currently, may become light to gentle from time to time, especially for the latter half of next week. Seas of 5 to 7 feet are anticipated through the forecast period. && .Western Micronesia... As Typhoon Saudel well northwest of the Marianas and Tropical Depression 19W north-northwest of Yap continue to move away from the region, the last pulse of a fresh to strong southwesterly monsoon is expected to bring more patchy showers Yap tonight. While winds are expected to diminish slightly thereafter, a reigniting monsoon surge is still expected to pummel Yap and much of eastern Yap State the next several days, with a peak shower and thunder coverage expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. A tropical ridge anchored just north of the Equator is expected to bring a dry spell to Palau beginning Monday night, which is likely to last for the rest ofthe week. While moist westerlies are expected to continue at Chuuk for most of the forecast period, the aforementioned tropical ridge will allow Chuuk to fall in between the convectively active pattern hugging 10N and the much quieter sector of the Equator between Indonesia and Kapingamarangi. This will allow patchy showers and some thunderstorms to form at Chuuk for much of the forecast period, followed by a drying trend in the second half of next week as a larger buffer circulation induces more diffusive flow. The aforementioned monsoon pulse and remaining significant southwesterly swells and fresh to strong winds continues to produce sea conditions hazardous to small craft, which are expected to fall below hazardous criteria by sunrise on Monday. In the meantime, combined seas of 5 to 7 feet in Palau waters are expected to taper down a few feet over the next few days as the southwesterly swell diminishes, being slowly replenished by various smaller northerly swells building in. Combined seas of 5 to 7 feet are expected to slowly drop a foot or two toward the next weekend as swells and localized wind waves diminish. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for GUZ001. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST Monday for GUZ001. MP...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for MPZ001>003. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST Monday for MPZ001>003. Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM ChST Monday for PMZ151>154. && $$ Marianas/Hydrology: Mesa East Micronesia: Doll West Micronesia/Tropical: Montvila  982 FXUS61 KCTP 231329 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 929 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Adjusted POPS up for Central and Southern PA today by about 20 percent from NBM guidance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unseasonably deep upper low over the Upper Great Lakes today will move Southeast to Lake Ontario by Monday morning bringing another few rounds of showers and thunderstorms, mainly across Northern PA this afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Unseasonably deep upper low over the Upper Great Lakes today will move Southeast to Lake Ontario by Monday morning bringing another few rounds of showers and thunderstorms, mainly across Northern PA this afternoon and evening. A subtle shortwave trough rotating around the southeast side of the upper low will spark some afternoon/evening showers and TSRA today, followed by only a brief downtrend in convection before a well-defined trough moves SE with its axis near the PA/OH border by shortly after midnight tonight. HREF and SREF MUCAPEs will top out between 750-1000 j/kg with wet bulb zero levels descending about 3-4 KFT to only around 6 KFT AGL across the Northern Mtns this afternoon and tonight. It's almost a slam dunk to see some periods of significant small hail from the stronger low-topped TSRA between 18Z Sun and 00Z Monday across the NW and maybe the Central/Ncent Mtns. SPC has a marginal risk of SVR TSRA for today across all of the CWA except for the southern tier layer of counties. Coincidentally, NBM POPS had to be raised by at least 20 percent (to agree with the SPC outlook) across the Central and Scent Mtns along with much of the Middle and Lower Susq Valley where a relative min of zero to 10 POPs was noted. Luckily, this second and more potent upper trough will be pivoting over the Commonwealth overnight tonight with MUCAPE of only a few hundred J/KG, supporting mainly showers and perhaps a low-topped TSRA or two moving inland from the warm waters of Lake Erie. Maxes only in the 60s and a brisk W wind across the northern and western mtns will make it feel much more like Sept/Oct than mid- Aug. Valley locations will see more sun preceding any convection with high temps reaching the mid 70s to near 80F in the Lower Susq Valley. Similar conditions are expected for Monday with the center of the upper low still hanging around our longitude and only moving slowly poleward. The SHRA/TSRA will likely be confined to only the nrn tier of counties in PA on Monday. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mid morning update. Adjusted the current TAFS for current obs and also small clusters of showers and isolated storms. Earlier discussion below. MVFR will predominate most airfields through the mid morning hours with pockets of lower IFR ceilings due to upslope flow at KBFD and KJST. We'll see a transition with varying VFR and MVFR in SHRA/Isolated low-topped TSRA focused in the 19-23Z window. Westerly wind gusts of 25+ Kts and small hail (GS) are possible across the northern Mtns of PA including KBFD. Cooling temperatures aloft and a 20+kt 850mb westerly jet should allow for moderately gusty winds for the late morning and afternoon hours. Outlook... Mon-Wed...Patchy morning fog, otherwise mainly VFR conditions return early next week with lower statewide precipitation chances. Thu...Chance of showers and storms again. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo AVIATION...Lambert/Martin/Lambrech  287 FXUS63 KABR 231338 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 838 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 40-50% chance for showers and thunderstorms during the day today across south central SD, expanding over north central SD to northeastern SD/west central MN this evening into the overnight. - There is a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) across central SD and a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) over much of northeastern SD this evening. The main concerns will be golf ball size hail, wind gusts exceeding 60 mph, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall. - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather Monday night. Threat include one inch hail and 60 mph. && .UPDATE... Issued at 835 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Updated the forecast this morning by reducing pops into the early afternoon hours. Showers and storms over south central SD continues to push southeast, with limited development further north. Shortwave activity in eastern Montana is our next focal point for convection over ND late this afternoon. If these storms develop, the could track southeast into the CWA mainly after 0Z. Will update the forecast further once 12Z data comes in. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 119 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the 50s with winds out of the northeast to east at less than 10 mph. Winds are expected to move around to be out of the south to southeast after sunrise. There is a 35-50% chance of some showers in central SD early this morning which will move east across the forecast area throughout the day. Our next chance for precipitation will be today with showers starting in south central SD this morning. The NAM Nest is the most excited about this event as it keeps showers and storms in south central SD until mid afternoon while most other CAMs have a bit of a dry spell during the late morning into the afternoon. The next round moves into north central SD later in the evening, generally after 7 PM CDT. These will move in a generally east to southeast direction, spreading into northeast SD through the late evening and into the overnight hours, potentially even into the early morning hours for east central SD (around Watertown). There is a Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) across central SD and a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) across most of northeast SD with main hazards of 1.5 inch hail, wind gusts of 60-70 mph, and brief heavy rainfall. MLCAPE Sunday evening is around 1000-1200 J/kg, increasing to about 1500 J/kg Monday, where there is also a Marginal Risk with hazards of 1 inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts. Storms Monday look to last into the early morning hours of Tuesday. An area of high pressure moves in for the middle of the week and storm chances return for the end of the week into next weekend. Temperatures still remain around average for this time of year with highs in the upper 70s to 80s. Not really anything in the way of smoke is expected for the next couple days. Winds across south central SD could be a little stronger today, gusting up to 30 mph at times. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will prevail today except in or near heavier showers or thunderstorms. Morning activity will occur around Pierre. This evening through tonight, showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into north central SD and progress southeast or east-southeast from there. There is low confidence in timing as most hi-res cams have slowed the approach, pushing it off to after 0z. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...17 DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...20  360 FXUS61 KALY 231340 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 940 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Forecast update this morning based on radar trends to decrease PoPs across much of the area for the rest of this morning. Showers and thunderstorms will then develop this afternoon. Activity looks most numerous north of I-90, with more scattered coverage from around I-90 south. SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for this afternoon into early this evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across eastern NY and western New England today. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon, with damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy downpours the primary hazards. 2) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday and Tuesday, especially near and north of I-90. 3) Chances of showers and thunderstorms return late next week as temperatures trend warmer. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Latest water vapor imagery shows our parent trough centered just north of the Great Lakes with a secondary shortwave rounding the base through the Ohio Valley. An area of rain and thunderstorms continues to push through PA early this morning ahead of the occluded boundary within a region of diffluent flow downstream of the trough. However, high res and deterministic guidance is in good agreement showing these showers/storms continuing to weaken as they advance north and eastward through sunrise as they outrun the best forcing for ascent. While a few isolated showers develop ahead of the occluded front before sunrise, the weakening area of showers/embedded storms should reach eastern NY and western New England 09 - 15 UTC this morning. The occluded boundary essentially stalls over eastern NY today with the secondary shortwave from the Ohio Valley continuing to rotate into the Northeast, reaching eastern NY by early afternoon. As stronger height falls arrive, expecting scattered clusters of showers/storms to redevelop and track from west to east. Forecast soundings and moisture profiles also show dry air surges into eastern NY/western New England this afternoon as this stronger shortwave arrives. This will help steepen mid- level lapse rates over 6C/km with DCAPE values also rising over 1000 J/kg. The incoming dry air should also help morning stratus break for sun with dew points in the mid to upper 60s supporting sfc-based instability increasing towards 1000 - 1500 J/kg per the REFS and CAMs. Given the incoming closed low, 0-6km shear impressively reaches 40-50kts and 0-3km shear 25-30kts. Despite these favorable ingredients for severe weather, clouds look to break for sun just as the stronger height falls arrive, limiting the time for the atmosphere to destabilize before convective initiates. In addition, low-level forcing is limited to a weakening warm front lifting northward along a washout occluded front. These help explain why the HREF and REFS both only show low probabilities for updraft helicity values exceeding 20m/s mainly 20 - 00 UTC. This indicates that even as isolated to scattered storm clusters initiate mid to late afternoon into the early evening hours, there should only be isolated instances of severe thunderstorms. Given weak updraft growth, there are also questions if any storms can tap into the stronger shear aloft. This matches with SPC's marginal risk (level 1 of 5) in their Day 1 Convective Outlook. Damaging winds remain the primary hazard from any severe storms that form but any storm can also produce frequent lightning as forecast soundings show sufficient instability extending into the favored -10C to -30C region likely due to the cool/dry air tracking in aloft. Storms can also produce heavy downpours given PWATs over 1". Convection dissipates by 0 - 02 UTC with clouds clearing quickly thereafter, supporting radiational fog overnight where heavy rain fell. KEY MESSAGE 2... Our mature closed low slowly propagates into southern Quebec by Monday with its cool pool extending into eastern NY and western New England. Southwest flow aloft will maintain elevated dew points in the mid 50s to low 60s with the 500hPa -15C to -18C cool pool aloft supporting steeper mid-level lapse rates 6 - 6.5C/km with morning sun contributing to SB-CAPE values reaching 500 - 1000 J/kg. As a stronger shortwave rotates around the base of the closed low late Monday morning into the afternoon, stronger forcing for ascent should support a more organized area of rain and even embedded thunderstorms tracking west to east. Given the cool pool, storms will not need to become too tall before lightning develops with any taller updrafts capable of small hail. However, forecast soundings shows low EL heights indicating low-topped convection and thus limiting severe weather potential. Winds shift westerly by Monday evening in the wake of the shortwave with cool air advection over the still warm lakes supporting a lake effect and upslope rain response. Therefore, we continue to show likely and categorical POPs in the western Adirondacks with chance POPs in the southern Greens and Mohawk Valley. Westerly flow and the trough axis/cool pool under our very slow moving closed low should maintain at least scattered showers during the day on Tuesday favored near and north of I-90. The western Adirondacks and southern Greens will likely receive the highest rainfall amounts. Instability wanes by Tuesday so any storms should be isolated. KEY MESSAGE 3... High pressure builds back overhead by Wednesday supporting pleasant and dry conditions. However, the dry break does not last long as yet another shortwave trough approaches the Northeast Thursday into Friday. Southwest flow ahead of it will allow humidity levels to rise once again with temperatures trending slightly above normal. Heights fall in response to the approaching trough and eventual cold front looks to support increased chances for showers and thunderstorms both days. However, there remains uncertainties in timing and coverage of shower/storms as there are discrepancies on the strengthen of the incoming cold front and placement of the parent trough in southern Canada. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 12z Monday...MVFR conditions prevail across all terminals this morning as an initial batch of showers begins to spread into the area. Brief lowering to IFR conditions could result with these showers mainly at KPSF, though upstream obs and forecast soundings don't allude anything past a lower MVFR ceiling and visibility at other sites. TEMPO groups have been added for the next couple of hours to accommodate these anticipated conditions. A break in precipitation comes in a couple of hours before additional scattered convection is expected this afternoon. While it is still difficult to pin down exactly where and when showers and thunderstorms will occur, latest guidance was fairly consistent with the previously issued PROB30 groups. Therefore, maintained the greatest probability of showers and thunderstorms between 21-01z. ALB may have some lingering showers from 16-19z, but confidence is low in this aspect of the forecast. Additionally, we maintained low MVFR conditions with thunderstorms in the aforementioned PROB30s to convey uncertainty not just in the timing and location, but limited confidence in obtaining IFR conditions. Once showers and thunderstorms conclude this evening, a swift return to VFR will occur with rapid improvements to visibility and ceiling height. By late this evening/early tomorrow morning, skies should clear, leading to potential fog formation at all sites by the end of the period. Winds will prevail out of the southeast to start the period this morning, with sustained speeds below 10 kt. Winds will pick up a bit by this afternoon to around 10 kt before shifting to the southwest to northwest this evening. Winds overnight will then be light to calm. Outlook... Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...31 AVIATION...12  085 FXHW60 PHFO 231359 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 359 AM HST Sun Aug 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Trades will remain locally strong today as Tropical Storm Moke moves westward, several hundred miles south of the islands. This system will begin to deliver periods of rainfall to Big Island this morning, Maui County by this afternoon, then Oahu and Kauai by late this evening. The heaviest and most widespread rainfall is forecast along the windward and southeast slopes of Big Island. A Flood Watch remains in effect for Big Island through Monday night. A Wind Advisory is in effect for parts of Big Island and Maui County through 6 PM HST this evening. Drier trade wind weather returns Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Latest IR satellite loop shows deep convection from Tropical Storm Moke flaring up roughly 200 miles south southeast of Hilo. Low level clouds and moisture on the northern periphery of the cyclone can also be seen racing westward towards Big Island at a steady clip. Radar is picking on these bands and depicts scattered light to embedded moderate shower activity. Radar estimated rain rates remain unimpressive though, mainly below a tenth of an inch an hour. By early afternoon, the high resolution WRF-ARW, WRF-FV3, and namNest model guidance all indicate a rather stark increase in rainfall coverage and intensity along eastern portions of Big Island. It will not take a significant amount of rain to cause flash flooding due to saturated grounds from recent heavy rain from TC Lala. Thus, a Flood Watch will remain in effect for Big Island through Monday afternoon. Rainfall amounts for the event appear in good order, as NHC's track for Tropical Storm Moke barely budged from the previous advisory package. Storm total forecast for windward and southeast Big Island remains at 5 to 10 inches with locally up to 15 inches, 3 to 6 inches for eastern Maui, and generally 1 to 2 inches elsewhere across the island chain. Locally strong trade winds persisted overnight as Hawaii remained sandwiched between low pressure of Tropical Storm Moke south of the state and a 1025 mb surface high to the northeast. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through this evening for portions of Maui, Molokai, Lanai, Kahoolawe, and Big Island. Strongest sustained winds will continue to occur over mountain ridges, gaps and where winds blow downslope off higher terrain. Observed speeds in these areas have generally been sustained 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. Winds across the ridge tops of the Ko'olau and Waianae mountain ranges may near advisory criteria later today as trade wind showers and/or deeper moisture bands from the northern periphery of Moke begin to arrive. Those zones will be left out of the advisory for now, but may have to be included if the stronger winds expand further west. Trade winds across all islands should begin to ease back to moderate by tonight. Tuesday through the end of next week, drier air will move in from the east, and typical trade winds/showers should return. && .AVIATION... Tropical Storm Moke located a couple hundred miles south of the Big Island continues on its west-northwestward track. Rain bands from the tropical storm will impact windward Big Island today, which will bring MVFR and periods of IFR conditions to the area. Trade winds are expected to be moderate to locally strong statewide. Outside of windward Big Island, showers embedded within the trade wind flow will primarily impact windward and mountain areas, bringing periods of MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR will prevail. AIRMET Tango is in effect for low level turbulence downwind of terrain due to the strengthened trade winds. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscurations over windward Big Island, and will likely remain through today. An AIRMET for IFR conditions over portions of windward Big Island is also a possibility later today. TC SIGMET series XRAY covers Tropical Storm Moke and its convection. && .MARINE... Northeast winds have strengthened across the Hawaiian Island coastal waters, mainly around windward Big Island, as a result of Tropical Storm (TS) Moke passing west across the far southern offshore waters. At 3 AM HST, Moke's low level center of circulation was approximately located 225 nautical miles south southeast of South Point, Big Island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the offshore waters. Intense convection associated with this storm is flaring up north of its center and will impact the southeastern offshore waters generally south of 18N today. An all-water Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect to account for fresh to locally strong trades between surface high pressure located far northeast of the islands and TS Moke. Higher winds and short period wind wave swell generated by TS Moke may push significant sea heights to 10 feet or slightly higher across Big Island windward waters today. East-facing shore surf will build today in response to strengthening trades. Surf along east and south-facing shores will be impacted by a short period east southeast swell generated by TS Moke as well as northeast wind wave swell as a result of these stronger trades. As Moke passes by to the south today and Monday a mounting southeast swell will veer and become south to southwest. This small, short period captured easterly fetch from TS Moke may push Big Island east surf to near advisory levels later today. Surf along most south-facing shores will be slightly below summer norms but still remain somewhat elevated due to a lingering small, long period south southwest swell. A three to four foot, medium to long period south swell is expected to arrive Monday and Tuesday which will maintain these near summertime heights. Small, medium to long period west to north swell originating from Hurricane Lala is passing around north and west-facing coasts today. && .FIRE WEATHER... Trade winds will remain locally strong today. The inversion will steadily weaken and erode as deep moisture associated with TS Moke moves into the area today. Heavy rain is expected over windward and SE facing slopes of Big Island through Monday. A typical summertime trade wind pattern will return by Tuesday. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Lanai Mauka- Kahoolawe-Maui Leeward West-Kohala-Big Island Interior-Molokai Southeast-Molokai North-Molokai West-Molokai Leeward South-Lanai Windward-Lanai Leeward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Windward Haleakala-South Haleakala-Big Island South- Big Island Southeast-Big Island North. Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for Big Island- Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for all Hawaiian waters- && $$ DISCUSSION...Thomas AVIATION...DT MARINE...Blood FIRE WEATHER...Thomas