394 FXUS65 KREV 231001 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 301 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Decreasing precipitation chances are expected today and tomorrow with seasonably warm temperatures and typical afternoon breezes. * Smoke from the recent Hawk Fire may bring poorer visibility and air quality to portions of the region near the Reno metro-area. * Dry conditions are anticipated through the remainder of the work week with a potential increase in winds Tuesday through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... For today, forecast guidance shows the CWA generally with a southwesterly flow aloft as an upper low moves along the U.S./Canada border while a high pressure ridge resides to the south and east. During the afternoon hours, models do show a slight shortwave disturbance passing through the flow over central NV. While dry conditions are expected for most of the region, this upper disturbance allows for Mineral, Lyon, and Churchill Counties to see a ~10-25% chance for isolated showers with a 10-15% chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two between 2-10 PM today. While forecast convective parameters do not support severe weather, stronger storms may produce brief periods of heavy rainfall with forecast PWs in these areas around 0.7-0.8 inches though not anticipating any flash flood threat at this time. For tomorrow, models do show another afternoon disturbance passing through the region, but this time closer to the OR border. As such, similar shower and thunderstorm chances are seen in Lassen, Modoc, and N. Washoe Counties on Monday afternoon. The latest forecast PW values in these locations come down slightly to 0.5-0.7 inches, so we cannot rule out potential isolated dry thunderstorms at this time on Monday. Another concern for today particularly in Washoe County and its adjacent areas looks to be smoke produced from the recent Hawk Fire. The latest HRRR smoke model shows patchy smoke continuing through the Sunday morning hours. But by the Sunday afternoon and evening hours, the model shows an increase in the concentration of near-surface smoke particularly in the Reno-Sparks area which may reduce area visibilities slightly. Those sensitive to poor air quality may want to continue to monitor airnow.gov today for the latest air quality information. The HRRR also shows patchy smoke possibly filtering into the portions of the NV Basin & Range going through the night as well. While typical afternoon breezes gusting up to around 20-25 mph are forecast today and tomorrow, critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated. Forecast convective parameters though do support potential plume development from the Hawk Fire later today with decent mid-level moisture and triple digit CAPE values. Daytime high temperatures today through Friday generally will be in the lower to middle 90s for the NE CA and W NV valleys and in the middle 70s to lower 80s range for Sierra communities. While low precipitation chances are to be expected after Monday, an isolated shower from diurnal heating cannot be ruled out completely through the rest of the work week. Model guidance does show a PacNW upper low moving towards BC midweek which may cause afternoon winds to increase a bit particularly in NE CA and NW NV on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The latest NBM probabilities on these days shows around a 50-80% chance for 30+ mph maximum wind gusts on these days. Will be monitoring this in case conditions trend towards widespread critical fire weather concerns going forward, but currently seeing elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions in these areas midweek. -078 && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are currently anticipated for all area TAF sites today. One concern especially for KRNO looks to come from possible reduced visibilities due to smoke from the recent Hawk Fire. The 16/00Z HRRR smoke model shows some slight reductions in visibility for KRNO/KRTS/KTRK with KRNO/KTRK seeing some improvements by 23/16Z. However, sub-VFR visibilities are seen between 23/20Z-24/04Z by KRTS and in the vicinity of KRNO due to the proximity and location of the Hawk Fire. Forecast convective parameters will also support wildfire cloud plume development during this time. Will continue to watch the trends going forward and amend TAFs if needed especially at KRNO. The HRRR continues to show patchy smoke in W NV going through the overnight hours into Monday morning. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are expected today across the region with typical afternoon zephyr breezes. Mineral, Lyon, and Churchill Counties see a ~10-25% chance for isolated showers with a 10-15% chance for an isolated thunderstorm between 23/21Z-24/06Z. Outside ~15-30% chances for showers in NE CA and far NW NV on Monday, dry conditions look to prevail through at least the first half of the week. -078 && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$  401 FXUS66 KLOX 231001 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 301 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS...23/259 AM. Above normal temperatures will continue. Patchy night through morning low clouds and fog will be confined to coastal areas, mainly north of Point Conception. Additional warming is expected next week with periods of extreme heat in some areas, especially Tuesday through Friday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...23/300 AM. The theme of the short and long term will be heat. A 597 dam upper high centered over NM will sit in place through Tuesday. Hgt will be near 592 dam today and Monday but will rise to 594 dam on Tuesday. At the sfc there will be near neutral flow in the W/E direction in the morning turning more onshore in the afternoon. There will be weak offshore flow from the north in the mornings turning weakly onshore in the afternoon. On Tuesday the offshore flow from the north will be stronger and the onshore push in the afternoon will be weaker. Max temps today and Monday will be similar and 5 to 10 degrees above normal in most places. Max temps in the vlys, lower mtn elevations and far interior will range from 98 to 108 degrees with the warmest readings in the western San Fernando Vly. The increase in hgts and decrease in the afternoon's onshore flow will bring 2 to 4 degrees of warming to almost all areas on Tuesday. Triple digit heat will affect all areas away from the csts. The interior of the LA coast will see max temps in the mid and upper 90s. Heat Advisories will go into effect this morning for LA and Ventura Counties except for the higher mountains of Ventura and the Antelope Valley. The Advisory also covers the Santa Barbara Mountains and Cuyama Valley, and the South Coast. These advisories last until 10 AM Tuesday. Following that, there is an Extreme Heat Watch in effect for the same areas, through Friday evening. At this time it is very likely (80 percent confidence) that the watches will be converted into Extreme Heat Warnings. The fairly light gradients will not create too much in the way of gusty winds. The only exception will be the western SBA south coast where Sundowners will likely occur each evening. Gusts in these areas will generally peak at 25 to 35 mph, although with isolated stronger gusts near Gaviota and Refugio. Skies through the period will be mostly clear. With limited onshore or even weak offshore flow and no eddy low clouds will be absent or very limited south of Pt Conception. Better onshore flow will likely bring some morning low clouds to western SBA county each overnight and morning. .LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...23/300 AM. The only real question for the Wed through Fri forecast is: will it be very hot or extremely hot. This forceast problem is driven by a wide range of possibilities with the sfc gradients. The EC is show a fairly strong offshore push which would bring near record very dangerous heat to the area. The GFS keeps the E/W gradient onshore but even it has some offshore flow forecast from the north (just much less than the EC does). The upper high moves a little to the west but hgts really do not change much and should remain around 594 dam through the period. Almost all of the vlys, lower mtn elevations and far interior will have temps between 100 and 110 degrees during this period. If the EC verifies Vly temps could end up 2 to 3 degrees warmer than the current forecast. The interior cst sections (such as DTLA) have a 15 percent chc of high temps of 100 to 103 degrees. The Central Coast will not be immune from the heat this time around. Offshore trends will lead to an 8 to 12 degree warm up on Wednesday leading to max temps in the upper 80s to mid 90s - there is a 10-20 percent chc that SLO could see 100 degrees. In addition to the daytime highsovernight lows will be 8 to 12 degrees above normal and this will greatly exacerbate the heat risk as there will be no time for people's body to release the heat stress. It is very likely that almost the entire forecast area will be blanketed by some combination of heat advisories and Extreme Heat Warnings starting Wednesday. One additional local concern will be very hot sundowners across southern SBA county. A decent N to S gradient will set up over the county each evening and gusty north canyon winds will develop. These hot winds could drive max temps into the 100-105 degree range and could also keep temperatures in the 80s until almost dawn. Some cooling is forecast on Saturday, but in the past these heat waves have held on a little longer than forecast. && .AVIATION...23/0959Z. At 0822Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 2100 feet with a temperature of 30 C. High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KSBA, KPMD, KWJF, KBUR, KVNY, KOXR, KCMA, & KSMO. There is a 10% chc of LIFR/IFR CIGs at KLAX, KLGB, KSBP between 23/10Z-16Z. KLAX...Fair confidence in CAVU TAF with only a 10% chance of LIFR/IFR CIGs 11Z-16Z. No significant east wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF. && .MARINE...23/300 AM. Moderate to high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds (20-30 knots) across the Outer Waters at least through Monday night, most prevalent south and west of Point Sal. This may need to be extended through mid week and expanded to all waters again later in the week. SCA winds gusts are also expected across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast this afternoon and evening, then there is a moderate chance for more widespread wind gusts reaching 25 knots during the afternoon and evening hours starting Tuesday and likely continuing through the week. Gusts of 20-25 knots should reach the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel each afternoon/evening starting Monday and continuing through the week. Moderate chances of SCA level winds reaching the eastern portion of the channel by mid-week. Otherwise widespread SCA conds are not likely for the inner waters south of Point Conception. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through Friday evening for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 4 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...Sirard/DB SYNOPSIS...MW/Ciliberti weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  450 FXUS66 KSEW 231014 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 314 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough will continue to make its way across the area this morning, bringing chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily to the mountains and the northern tier of western Washington. Upper level ridging will build into the Pacific Northwest on Monday and Tuesday for warmer and drier conditions. Another upper level low will approach the area around midweek, bringing increasing onshore flow and cooler conditions to western Washington the second half of the week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... An upper level trough will continue to make its way inland across the area early this morning. Meanwhile, a surface trough currently extends along the interior of British Columbia, through Vancouver, and down along the Washington coast. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms associated with this feature have remained rather vigorous to the north of the border over the past couple of hours, with latest radar trends showing shower and thunderstorm activity slowly starting to drift southeastward early this morning. Thunderstorms have generally continued to weaken as they drift closer to Washington, however will need to continue to keep an eye on trends through the remainder of the overnight hours as latest hi-res guidance does hint at the possibility of a few storms drifting into portions of the San Juans, Whatcom, and Skagit counties through the early morning hours. Otherwise, expect shower and thunderstorm activity to primarily become confined to the Cascades by this afternoon and to gradually wane throughout the day as the upper level trough pushes off to the east and ridging starts to build in from the west. Widespread cloud cover across the area will take a bit longer to scatter today, helping to keep temperatures slightly cooler and primarily in the low to mid 70s across the interior and in the mid 60s along the coast. Upper level ridging will then build into the Pacific Northwest on Monday, with the ridge axis shifting eastward over the Intermountain West by Tuesday. This will bring a warming and drying trend to western Washington the first part of the week, with Tuesday expected to be the warmest day across western Washington. Afternoon high temperatures will climb into the 80s across the interior lowlands and into the low 90s across the Cascade valleys by Tuesday, reintroducing Moderate HeatRisk to portions of these areas. Surface flow will also transition to northerly and then offshore at times, which may allow for some smoke transport from ongoing wildfires across British Columbia and eastern Washington to make its way back into western Washington at times through the early part of the week. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Ensemble guidance remains in decent agreement with an upper level low approaching the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. This would bring the return of onshore flow and cooler conditions to western Washington the second half of the week. Chances of precipitation will also increase Wednesday and Thursday, though overall amounts look to remain light at this time. Will need to keep an eye on any thunder potential for the area, though probabilities at this time remain at around 10 percent or less. Temperatures will generally trend near to slightly cooler than normal the second half of the week, with afternoon highs topping out in the low to mid 70s across the interior and mid 60s along the coast. Ensemble guidance suggests the upper level trough will remain an influence across the area heading into next weekend, which would continue to promote onshore flow and near to slightly below temperatures across western Washington. 14 && .AVIATION... Upper level trough moving east of the area this morning. Flow aloft becoming northwesterly behind the trough. Upper level ridge building in tonight with flow aloft becoming westerly. Low level onshore flow today becoming northerly late tonight into Monday with thermally induced surface trough along the coast. VFR ceilings inland with IFR or LIFR ceilings along the coast. MVFR ceilings developing over the interior 14z-16z. Ceilings over the interior improving to VFR around 21z. Showers with embedded thunderstorms from about NAS Whidbey northward until 18z. KSEA...VFR ceilings early this morning. MVFR ceilings developing around 15z continuing to around 20z. VFR ceilings middle of the afternoon onward with clouds scattering out this evening. Southwest wind 4 to 8 knots becoming northwesterly 00z-03z. Felton && .MARINE... High pressure rebuilding over the coastal waters today will remain through Tuesday. Thermally induced surface trough along the coast Monday will dissipate Monday night. A weak frontal system will move across the waters Wednesday night. High pressure rebuilds over the area Thursday. Small craft advisory westerlies in the Central and Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca Tuesday night otherwise winds 20 knots or less through the period. Seas remaining in the 3 to5 foot range through the week. Felton && .FIRE WEATHER... An upper level trough will pass through the area this morning. While at the surface, a trough currently extends southwestward from British Columbia down along the Washington coast. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across the northern tier of the area, primarily across the San Juans and Whatcom and Skagit counties, through the morning hours before waning. While storms have been producing heavy downpours for areas north of the border, storms have also been associated with abundant lightning. Should any storms drift into the area over the next several hours, they will remain capable of producing abundant lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds - and could have an impact to any ongoing fires across the North Cascades should they make it within the vicinity. Overall chances of thunderstorms will then decrease by the afternoon and evening as the upper trough exits the region. An upper level ridge will then build into the area Monday and Tuesday, bringing brief periods of low- level offshore flow as a thermal trough builds along the coast and pushes inland overnight into Tuesday. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely across the Cascades on Tuesday with the warm and dry pattern and with relative humidities dipping into the low to mid 20s. Another upper level trough will arrive in the middle of next week, bringing the return of onshore flow- as well as chances for more showers and the potential for thunderstorms. Upper- level troughing then looks to linger into the weekend. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...None. && $$  630 FXUS65 KRIW 231021 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 421 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Monsoonal moisture hangs around again today with more scattered showers and thunderstorms, and another risk for heavy rainfall and local flooding. - A few storms may become strong to severe, with wind gusts to 60 mph or over the main threat. - Monsoonal moisture will linger much of the week, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. Temperatures will average above normal through the period, but not overly hot. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 It was a typical monsoon day yesterday, with some areas, mainly in southwest and in Johnson and Natrona Counties getting a LOT of rain, causing some local flooding. Other areas saw nothing. And we continue to have some showers and embedded thunder around late tonight, although intensity is significantly less. And these will continue through the night, gradually becoming weaker and less numerous. We will have another round of showers and storms today. There are some differences. For one, precipitable water values are less today by about 20 percent in most locations. This should bring less coverage and somewhat lesser rainfall rates. The other difference is that there will be more steering flow today, generally about 10 to 15 knots at 700 millibars and 25 to 35 knots at 500 millibars. So storms should have more movement. This should decrease the chance of flooding somewhat. We still have an excessive rainfall outlook across the entire area though, so the threat is still there. There is also the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. Most of the area is under a marginal risk of severe weather today. There could be some small hail, but this not the main risk. The main risk looks to be strong wind gusts. Roughly north and west of a Buffalo to Riverton to Lyman line has a Conditional 1 outlook for wind, or possible convective wind gusts to 75 mph. Soundings do show some inverted V profiles, especially across northwestern Wyoming where the surface will be drier, with low and mid level lapse rates close to 9 C/Km. This could lead to some strong downburst winds later today. Again, the best chance would be across the northwest but most areas will have a chance. And, like previous nights, most convection should end after sunset but a few showers and storms will likely linger through the night. As for temperatures, they should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with more sunshine expected. The rest of the week looks like more of the same as the annoying monsoonal moisture will hang around the area through at least Thursday and possibly into Friday as well. The models continue to have different ideas on which day will be more active with no real well defined shortwaves with changes from day to day. Precipitable water generally average about 125 to 150 percent of normal through the period though. So, at this point we went with a generic solution of mainly diurnal showers and storms each afternoon. Temperatures should remain fairly similar through the period, not very hot but averaging around 4 to 8 degrees above normal on average, with the possibility of a cooler day if there is more cloud cover than expected. Drier air may then work in for next weekend and bring a return to drier weather but uncertainty remains high on the exact timing. So, all in all, it continues to look like more of the same as the summer of the monsoon lives on in western and central Wyoming. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 416 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A few showers will linger early this morning in vicinity of KCPR and KRKS until around 13Z to 14Z, followed by a clearing sky. Today will be another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the best chance of a shower or thunderstorm after 20Z until around 04Z Monday. The best chance is across the northwestern terminals, especially in vicinity of KJAC which has the highest chance. Most other terminals have around a 20 to 25 percent chance, and PROB30 groups were included for those. The smallest chance is at KCPR, with the chance less than 20 percent so we left thunder out of the forecast for now. However, confidence is low in timing individual showers and storms. A gusty wind will increase in vicinity of KRKS and KCPR this afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Hattings  699 FXUS62 KRAH 231024 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 624 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Nothing significant && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 200 AM Sunday... 1) Much drier air works in today and Monday behind a cold frontal passage. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out along the Coastal Plain. 2) Diurnally maximized convection returns to central NC Thursday through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 200 AM Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Much drier air works in today and Monday behind a cold frontal passage. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out along the Coastal Plain. A cold front will be pushing through most of our central NC counties this morning. The front will be slowest to push through the eastern Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Behind the front, northwest downslope flow will aid in dewpoints mixing out and RH levels becoming much more comfortable for late August in the upper 30s to middle 40s percent. It is difficult to tell how low dewpoints may mix out this afternoon, but statistical guidance and HREF suggest perhaps middle 50s in the NW, upper 50s in Raleigh and low 60s in the SE. The one exception may be the southern Coastal Plain, where moisture may hang out with the front slower to edge through. But all in all, a great afternoon to be outside. Lows tonight may bottom out in the low to middle 60s, with a few of our cooler spots dipping into the upper 50s. That lower humidity should continue into Monday, despite highs the next few days in the mid/upper 80s, to near 90 in the south. With the moisture lingering in our far SE today, cannot rule out a stray isolated shower or storm, especially Sampson County, though overall ensembles keep most storms to our east along the coast. Some of the guidance, particularly the GFS, indicate a weak surface wave forming along the front as it stalls out along central SC. This wave is progged in some guidance to track north Monday and perhaps buckle the front back north. This could initiate isolated or scattered storms Monday morning or afternoon, most favored in the Sandhills to the central Coastal Plain. Confidence in this scenario is low but if trends continue, rain chances and clouds may increase in our south and east Monday. KEY MESSAGE 2... Diurnally maximized convection returns to central NC Thursday through the weekend. A closed mid/upper level low over southern Quebec Tues morning will continue to slowly pivot east-northeast as another series of shortwaves parade across Great Lakes and southern Ontario through Fri. Moisture returns in the low lvls as early as Wed, with deeper moisture return on Thurs, although rich tropical moisture appears limited in the mid/upper levels as west-northwest flow persists over the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. Nevertheless, this should support diurnally driven convection as surface dew points in the 70s return and PWAT values rise back to around or slightly-above normal into the weekend. There may be some mixing out of dew points each afternoon, especially over the Piedmont back into the 60s which may limit the moderate instability to the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Thurs appears to have the best chance for measurable precipitation with neutral H5 height tendencies and potential influence from any MCV's from upstream convection over the Ohio Valley. Reasonable high- end totals for any given area will be around 1" to as much as +2" based on the 12z LREF. However, these amounts will not occur everywhere, as is the nature of summertime convection, with most locations likely to receive somewhere between trace amounts to 0.5" between 8 AM Thurs to 8 AM Fri. For now, no widespread concern for excessive rainfall is expected through the forecast period. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 624 AM Sunday... Patchy to areas of fog have developed across central NC. The lowest visibilities are presently found at FAY, though low stratus has extended as far west at GSO/INT. A surface cold front will move through this morning, scouring out the low-level moisture. But before that happens, LIFR/IFR conditions will be favored at FAY and possibly RWI. Confidence was too low to include these restrictions at RDU, but it cannot be ruled out. The latest satellite imagery reveals most of the sub-VFR visibilities and stratus are focused over the western Piedmont, southern Piedmont, Sandhills, and southern Coastal Plain. As the front moves through, winds will become west-northwest, with brief gusts this afternoon to 15-18 kt. A weak surface wave is becoming increasing favored to develop in SC overnight tonight, keeping low-level moisture in place across the eastern portion of central NC. A few isolated showers are possible near FAY, though the better chance is for LIFR conditions early Mon as moisture lingers over the eastern Sanhills and Coastal Plain. Outlook: Early morning fog/stratus will be possible Mon morning at FAY. A weak surface wave will promote a chance of isolated storms near FAY/RWI Monday. Moisture and lift increases midweek and the chance of convection returns area wide Wed-Thu. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kren/Swiggett AVIATION...Kren  698 FXUS63 KDDC 231023 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 523 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Early morning showers and thunderstorms possible - Isolated storms possible Sunday evening - Highest chance of storms Tuesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Early morning radar shows showers and thunderstorms located across Colorado. The activity should continue to propagate eastward through the overnight hours. This activity may reach across NW KS/WC KS and N KS by the early morning hours. This activity is not expected to be strong or severe. As such, have the highest pops across the northern zones during the morning hours. The CAMs show the potential for additional showers and thunderstorms developing across Colorado Sunday evening. This activity may reach far southwest Kansas during the late evening hours. Again, this activity is not expected to be strong or severe by the time it reaches into western Kansas. Otherwise, highs will continue to remain seasonably hot with values peaking in the 90s. Lows will be in a mix of 60s to 70s. The same weather patttern with diurnal showers and thunderstorms is expected by the models for Monday. Again, far western Kansas stands to see the highest pops, as is this area is in closer proximity to the diurnally developing convection across the high plains. Long range models and their ensemble counterparts shows the mid level ridge sinking southward across the southern Rockies by Tuesday and Wednesday. Diurnally induced storms may ride the edge of this ridge and may propagate once again into western Kansas. Tuesday stands with the highest pops and large areal coverage of storms during the evening hours. A similar weather pattern is forecast by the models Wednesday and possibly Thursday. Otherwise, highs will remain seasonably hot with values in the 90s and lows in the 60s and 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 522 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Mid clouds will dissipate around the HYS terminal this morning with VFR conditions expected otherwise. Winds will generally be from the southeast, gusting to over 20 knots by the afternoon. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sugden AVIATION...Hovorka_42  807 FXUS62 KFFC 231028 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 628 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New 12Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry for North Georgia and low chances for thunderstorms (15-20%) across parts of Central Georgia through Tuesday. - Daily rain chances will be on the upswing by mid to late week as a frontal boundary approaches. - Seasonal temperatures are largely expected through the week ahead. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 350 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Currently: Another quiet night/early morning across North and Central Georgia. Temperatures are still warm thanks to high cirrus and midlevel clouds sweeping across the state. Latest readings are in the low 70s. Some low clouds and patchy fog are likely again later this morning but not expecting this to be quite as extensive as yesterday. Precipitation Trends: A secondary surface front will push through the forecast area today as upper troughing digs eastward towards the Atlantic Coast. Isolated thunderstorms will remain a possibility late this afternoon into early evening across parts of Central Georgia. Any stronger storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts due to lingering moisture and adequate instability south of the front. The front should push further into FL and along the GA/SC coastline thus limiting any precipitation coverage/chances even further for Monday. Drier conditions are expected for most to kick off the work week. Heat Trends: Drier air and lower dewpoints will continue to filter in behind the secondary front and will lend to less oppressive heat for most places today and Monday. Daytime temperatures will still largely remain in the 90s but dewpoints in the 60s will make being outside a little less miserable. Overnight temperatures are forecast to fall into the 60s to low 70s (upper 50s at the higher elevations) each night/early morning. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 350 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The forecast area will remain in a northwest flow regime aloft through the bulk of the long term forecast period. Initially, a more comfortable airmass characterized by 60s dewpoints will remain entrenched on Tuesday as a front remains stalled to the south across south Georgia/northern Florida. Moisture will gradually increase through midweek, and disturbances within the northwest flow will provide some opportunity for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday into Friday, an additional cold front looks to push southeastward into the forecast area as a trough swings through the Great Lakes. This frontal boundary and increasing moisture will provide an impetus for PoPs to increase more markedly by Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will remain largely close to normal with highs ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s and fairly pleasant morning lows in the 60s for much of north Georgia to lower 70s farther south. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Mid-to high level clouds continue to push thru this AM. Mostly VFR expected and WNW to NW winds 5-10kts. A few low-end gusts ~16-18kts are psbl this aftn at ATL. Low chances for shra/tsra near MCN/CSG but confidence is low on occurrence and extent. Most likely timeframe would be 20-01z. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... High confidence on all elements. 07 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 93 65 91 65 / 10 10 0 0 Atlanta 92 70 90 69 / 10 10 0 10 Blairsville 84 59 83 60 / 10 10 0 0 Cartersville 91 64 89 64 / 10 10 0 0 Columbus 95 72 93 71 / 20 20 20 10 Gainesville 90 65 88 65 / 10 10 0 0 Macon 95 70 93 69 / 20 20 20 10 Rome 91 64 89 63 / 10 10 0 0 Peachtree City 92 67 90 66 / 10 10 10 10 Vidalia 96 72 95 72 / 20 20 30 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...07  794 FXUS63 KLMK 231027 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 627 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry and pleasant conditions are expected for today through Tuesday. * Warmer temperatures (mid to upper 80s) and low chances for showers and storms return by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 316 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Light winds, clear skies, and recent precip over eastern areas has allowed for river valley fog to develop. This fog will burn off by mid-morning. High pressure at the surface and northwesterly flow aloft will be the main features over the region through Tuesday. This will bring cooler temperatures and drier conditions. Looking to see lows each morning in the upper 50s and low 60s and highs in the low-to-mid 80s. Dew points will remain in the mid 50s through most of the day, which will allow for very comfortable conditions. Guidance has trended drier through this short term, keeping the warm front to the southwest of the region. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 316 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 High pressure will move off to the east and the warm front will push northeast into central Kentucky on Wednesday. This will bring better moisture to broad troughing aloft. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. Additionally, temperatures look to return to normal in the upper 80s for Wednesday. On Thursday, an amplifying trough will move through the Ohio Valley and bring a cold front with it. This front will bring another chance for showers and storms on Thursday and into Friday. At this time, forecast soundings show weak shear and ample instability. So there is a possibility that a few storms become strong. Though, severe weather is not expected at this time. Behind the cold front, drier air is expected to build into the region. Temperatures will likely stay around normal in the upper 80s for highs through the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 627 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Valley fog will dissipate by mid-morning. Northwest winds will pick up by mid-morning around 6kts and then gust up to 19kts in the afternoon. A Cu field is likely in the afternoon. This evening, winds will become calm to light. Conditions will remain VFR through this forecast period. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRW LONG TERM...SRW AVIATION...SRW  836 FXUS64 KOUN 231029 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 529 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 525 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Excessive heat continues through the weekend and into next week. - Strong to severe storms are possible late Sunday into Monday morning across north central Oklahoma. Damaging wind gusts are the main hazard. - Isolated to scattered rain/storms are possible most days with the primary hazard being strong winds. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Sunday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Upper ridge will build ever so slightly further east today and with expanding low level thermal ridge, much of the area will climb well above 100 degrees today. Southwest Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas will be near record heat at 110-115 degrees. This will require an upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning for those areas eastward along the Red River. Although lighter winds will be a limiting factor, the very hot conditions along with afternoon RH values below 20% and very dry vegetation will result in elevated fire weather conditions across portions of western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Will issue a Fire Danger Statement for these areas for today. Elsewhere, a shortwave trough will move across the Central Plains into the Ozarks region today. Although anticipate much of the associated precip to remain to our north and east, some may skirt far north central Oklahoma late this afternoon. This along with the associated cloud cover may keep north central Oklahoma from reaching 100 degrees this afternoon. An extension of the shortwave along with some low level convergence along a residual boundary across northwest Oklahoma may allow for an isolated afternoon thunderstorm there as well. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Afternoon High Plains convection will make a run at northwest Oklahoma this evening, most of that is expected to dissipate as we go through the evening, although developing low level jet may keep activity going a little further east than many of models indicate. Some of the latest HRRR runs suggest this. As we go through the night llj veers to the west and a rather deep layer of warm advection develops, once again across mainly eastern half of Oklahoma. May see activity again develop near of just east of I-35 corridor and then shift east into eastern Oklahoma Monday morning. Models are still showing a shortwave trough coming out of the High Plains on Monday with an associated surface low developing in the eastern Texas panhandle or western Oklahoma. This low will then track east across Oklahoma near of just north of the I-40 corridor along with a weak surface surface boundary. Veered low level flow along and south of the boundary will set up a "pre-frontal torch" type scenario with record heat across the south on Monday. Temperatures may approach 115 degrees in southwest Oklahoma and north Texas. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will likely develop in these areas as well. Much like Sunday, a limiting factor will be the wind speeds which are not overly strong, but still some 10-20 mph sustained with gusts 20-25 mph will be problematic. At least a Fire Danger Statement will be needed and a Fire Weather Watch/Red Flag Warning may need to be considered. As the upper ridge retrogrades ever so slightly we see a couple of shortwaves drop southeast out of High Plains late Tuesday and Tuesday night. These should provide better precip chances to portions of western and northwestern Oklahoma during this time frame. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 As the second shortwave moves across the area on Wednesday, not out of the question to see a few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms. Latest medium range model runs of both the GFS and ECMWF show the upper ridge drifting further southwest as we go through the second half of the upcoming week. This will allow modest northwest flow to continue through the end of the week and possibly into the weekend with periodic shortwave troughs traversing the Southern Plains and at least some rain chances continue. With this retrogression of the upper ridge, it should allow temperatures to cool from the peak of the heating that will be see earlier in the week. However, it still appears that above normal temperatures will continue. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period. showers and thunderstorms will be possible late tonight into early Monday morning across northern Oklahoma. Any stronger thunderstorm may have reduced visibilities. Otherwise, southeast winds will be expected across most of the area. A frontal boundary will begin to move into northern Oklahoma towards the end of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 103 77 105 75 / 10 10 10 0 Hobart OK 109 80 109 76 / 0 20 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 109 82 111 80 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 105 73 102 70 / 10 30 0 10 Ponca City OK 95 71 97 72 / 10 30 10 0 Durant OK 106 79 108 80 / 0 0 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005-006-009>012-014>020-023>032-040>042. Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ021-022-033>039-043>048-050>052. TX...Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...13  930 FXUS63 KGRR 231030 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 630 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy & Cooler Today; Isolated Shower Possible - Dry Monday/Tuesday, Turning Wet Wednesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Breezy & Cooler Today; Isolated Shower Possible We'll be west of a departing low pressure system today as cold air advection occurs over the region and boundary layer mixing should bring down 25-30 mph wind gusts to the surface. This cool NW breeze will only yield max temps in the upper 60s to low 70s today, below normal for the third week in August. CAMs are trying to spit out a few rogue showers today, mainly across central Lower MI, though these would be minor given decreasing low level moisture and pathetic ELs. Not expecting lightning in this activity today. Most areas will not get rained on. - Dry Monday/Tuesday, Turning Wet Wednesday The early week period looks tranquil with lighter winds as upper heights build and partly to mostly sunny skies will dominate. The next feature of interest is an upper trough that arrives Wednesday during peak heating. ECE ensemble members are sold on 1000+ MUCAPE across the region by afternoon/evening ahead of this feature, most of which should be realized as surface based instability at this point. GFS model soundings indicate moistening soundings during the afternoon and night hours Wednesday as surface dew points try to get into the 60s. Deep layer shear does not look very good with maybe 25 kts or so, thus only quasi-organized convection is likely, but trends will be monitored as we get closer. Best chance for rain looks to be 18z Wednesday through 06z Thursday. Can't rule out some leftover/lingering showers or scattered storms on Thursday mainly across mid Michigan and points east. Just depends on how fast the upper trough moves, but there is time to watch. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 630 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR is forecast for this TAF period. Breezy conditions expected at the terminals with gusts around 25 kts. Cloud bases around 5k ft this afternoon with only a widely scattered shower possible, most likely avoiding the terminals but will maintain some PROB30s to cover threats at A) AZO and BTL through ~14z and then B) LAN and JXN for diurnally driven showers possible from 18z-00z. There does not appear to be enough instability to warrant any mention of thunder. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The forecast is unchanged for today with winds and waves remaining hazardous to small craft and hazardous swim conditions for the beaches. Expecting 4 to 6 ft for all areas with NW flow of 15 to 25 knots and some gusts to 30 knots possible. These winds and waves will not subside until this evening into tonight. After today, waves may reach 2-3 ft on Monday with a further diminishing into Tuesday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ037-043-050- 056-064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hoving AVIATION...Hoving MARINE...Hoving  141 FXUS62 KRAH 231036 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 636 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for Anson, Richmond, Scotland, Hoke, and Cumberland until 9 am Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 200 AM Sunday... 1) Much drier air works in today and Monday behind a cold frontal passage. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out along the Coastal Plain. 2) Diurnally maximized convection returns to central NC Thursday through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 200 AM Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Much drier air works in today and Monday behind a cold frontal passage. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out along the Coastal Plain. A cold front will be pushing through most of our central NC counties this morning. The front will be slowest to push through the eastern Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Behind the front, northwest downslope flow will aid in dewpoints mixing out and RH levels becoming much more comfortable for late August in the upper 30s to middle 40s percent. It is difficult to tell how low dewpoints may mix out this afternoon, but statistical guidance and HREF suggest perhaps middle 50s in the NW, upper 50s in Raleigh and low 60s in the SE. The one exception may be the southern Coastal Plain, where moisture may hang out with the front slower to edge through. But all in all, a great afternoon to be outside. Lows tonight may bottom out in the low to middle 60s, with a few of our cooler spots dipping into the upper 50s. That lower humidity should continue into Monday, despite highs the next few days in the mid/upper 80s, to near 90 in the south. With the moisture lingering in our far SE today, cannot rule out a stray isolated shower or storm, especially Sampson County, though overall ensembles keep most storms to our east along the coast. Some of the guidance, particularly the GFS, indicate a weak surface wave forming along the front as it stalls out along central SC. This wave is progged in some guidance to track north Monday and perhaps buckle the front back north. This could initiate isolated or scattered storms Monday morning or afternoon, most favored in the Sandhills to the central Coastal Plain. Confidence in this scenario is low but if trends continue, rain chances and clouds may increase in our south and east Monday. KEY MESSAGE 2... Diurnally maximized convection returns to central NC Thursday through the weekend. A closed mid/upper level low over southern Quebec Tues morning will continue to slowly pivot east-northeast as another series of shortwaves parade across Great Lakes and southern Ontario through Fri. Moisture returns in the low lvls as early as Wed, with deeper moisture return on Thurs, although rich tropical moisture appears limited in the mid/upper levels as west-northwest flow persists over the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. Nevertheless, this should support diurnally driven convection as surface dew points in the 70s return and PWAT values rise back to around or slightly-above normal into the weekend. There may be some mixing out of dew points each afternoon, especially over the Piedmont back into the 60s which may limit the moderate instability to the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Thurs appears to have the best chance for measurable precipitation with neutral H5 height tendencies and potential influence from any MCV's from upstream convection over the Ohio Valley. Reasonable high- end totals for any given area will be around 1" to as much as +2" based on the 12z LREF. However, these amounts will not occur everywhere, as is the nature of summertime convection, with most locations likely to receive somewhere between trace amounts to 0.5" between 8 AM Thurs to 8 AM Fri. For now, no widespread concern for excessive rainfall is expected through the forecast period. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 624 AM Sunday... Patchy to areas of fog have developed across central NC. The lowest visibilities are presently found at FAY, though low stratus has extended as far west at GSO/INT. A surface cold front will move through this morning, scouring out the low-level moisture. But before that happens, LIFR/IFR conditions will be favored at FAY and possibly RWI. Confidence was too low to include these restrictions at RDU, but it cannot be ruled out. The latest satellite imagery reveals most of the sub-VFR visibilities and stratus are focused over the western Piedmont, southern Piedmont, Sandhills, and southern Coastal Plain. As the front moves through, winds will become west-northwest, with brief gusts this afternoon to 15-18 kt. A weak surface wave is becoming increasing favored to develop in SC overnight tonight, keeping low-level moisture in place across the eastern portion of central NC. A few isolated showers are possible near FAY, though the better chance is for LIFR conditions early Mon as moisture lingers over the eastern Sanhills and Coastal Plain. Outlook: Early morning fog/stratus will be possible Mon morning at FAY. A weak surface wave will promote a chance of isolated storms near FAY/RWI Monday. Moisture and lift increases midweek and the chance of convection returns area wide Wed-Thu. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ083>086-088. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kren/Swiggett AVIATION...Kren  187 FXUS63 KILX 231037 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 537 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonal and mostly dry weather is expected the next few days. - The next chance for showers and storms arrives midweek. Some of these storms could be strong to marginally severe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Upper air analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure achored over the southwest US with troughing over the eastern US. Northwest flow between these two features will keep seasonal and mostly dry weather in place through the start of the new week. By midweek, a compact upper shortwave will track through the northern Great Lakes Region, sending a cold front through a good portion of the Midwest states. This will bring our next chance for showers and storms. Out ahead of the front, temperatures will climb well into the 80s with steady moisture return sending dewpoints into the upper 60s to low 70s. Forecast guidance is showing moderately strong instability developing by Wednesday afternoon with seasonally strong shear. Forecast soundings depict inverted-V T/Td profiles with a large area of CAPE atop of that. A capping inversion will be in place most of the day, but will erode from west to east by late afternoon/early evening as the front approaches. Although the better upper forcing will be displaced to our north, a few strong to marginally severe storms could develop Wednesday afternoon and evening, posing a threat for damaging wind gusts. Later this week, northwest flow aloft will become more zonal by the weekend. A few weak shortwaves traversing through the upper flow may spark occasional spotty showers, though most will stay dry. Longer range guidance shows a more defined wave/front moving through sometime later Saturday or Sunday, which would bring another chance for precipitation. Temperatures will remain seasonable through the end of the month with highs in the low to middle 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 537 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are expected through today. Northwest winds will become light and variable overnight as surface high pressure settles in from the west. Recent guidance shows fog developing early Monday morning across much of central IL. Added TEMPO groups for MVFR visby reductions from 09-12Z at all airfields. Future adjustments will be needed to further refine things. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...NMA DISCUSSION...NMA AVIATION...NMA  162 FXUS64 KMAF 231036 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 536 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 536 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Hot temperatures continue through midweek with little to no chance of rain. - Drink plenty of fluids and seek shade frequently as heat illnesses due to prolonged exposure to heat may occur. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Running out of ways to say it's going to be hot. Mid and upper ridging will continue to strengthen and center overhead over the next few days. This will bring a peak to the current heat wave early this week with nearly everyone over the 100 degree mark, outside of the mountains. The Heat Advisory will continue for the northeast zones today and will most certainly be extended in time as temperatures will only get hotter Monday/Tuesday. The heat risk remains in the "extreme" category so take precautions and limit time outdoors, especially in the afternoon. Precipitation chances remain nil the next couple of days. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The ridge will begin to weaken slightly and shift west Tuesday/Wednesday, but not before another couple of very hot days. Northwesterly flow will develop aloft allowing storms that develop over northern NM to move toward the area late Wednesday. Confidence is slightly higher for more widespread coverage of storms so rain chances have increased to 30-40% for SE NM and the northern Permian Basin. More storms are possible Thursday which could keep temperatures under 100 for some locations, but won't pull the trigger on that yet. Drier conditions return late week with temperatures remaining well above normal. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 536 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR continues through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 105 77 105 75 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 103 74 104 74 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 104 75 103 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 102 75 103 73 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 94 70 96 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 102 72 103 71 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 95 64 96 63 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 102 77 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 102 77 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 104 76 104 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Borden-Howard- Mitchell-Scurry. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...29  258 FXUS61 KBGM 231039 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 639 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... PoPs were increased and brought farther south Monday afternoon into the Twin Tiers and portions of NE PA as coverage of lake effect/lake enhanced showers is often underdone by the NBM. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A broad upper level low moving over the region is expected produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms early this week before moving away from the area Tuesday. 2) High pressure builds in for a brief lull in wet weather Wednesday, then additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to return Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A broad surface low centered near Georgian Bay early this morning will be gradually lifting northward toward the Ontario/Quebec border. As it does so, it will continue to drag a frontal boundary east-northeast across the CWA through the morning hours with a round of showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder before reaching the Hudson Valley region by the early afternoon. As the winds become more westerly in the wake of the frontal passage and an upper level low drops south over the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon, additional isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can pop up, especially across CNY and toward the Finger Lakes. 0-6km shear increases late this morning into the afternoon ranging from 30 to 45 knots with about 500 to 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and about 300 J/kg of MLCAPE. Steep low-level lapse rates will be accompanied by mid- level lapse rates of 6-6.5 C/km. All of this combined with afternoon daytime heating means there is an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm risk where a few storms popping up could produce hail and locally damaging winds. SPC has a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) across the entire area for today. Model guidance does show that a brief break in shower activity is expected this evening as a dry slot develops, then as the upper low settles overhead tonight, some spotty showers can make a return late. The upper low will be bringing in some noticeably cooler air with it as 850mb temps fall as low as +7 to +10C Monday morning. With the cool air aloft and a west to northwest flow in place, additional lake effect/lake enhanced rain showers are expected to develop Monday, especially during the afternoon. The NBM tends to be underdone with coverage of showers in this set up, so shower chances were added farther south through the Twin Tiers in the afternoon. As the upper low lifts NE Tuesday, some spotty showers can still linger, especially downwind of Lake Ontario, before dry conditions return. Highs today will be in the 70s areawide before cooling down into the 60s and low 70s tomorrow. Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure briefly builds in Tuesday night into Wednesday with dry conditions. Then Thursday into Friday, model guidance suggests a similar pattern to this weekend setting back up with a potential low moving up from the south and another upper trough pushing in from the west that would bring the chance for additional showers and thunderstorms. Some model guidance and ensemble members lean toward the activity moving in more toward the afternoon hours on Thursday, so this is something to monitor in the coming days. As of now these features appear to be more progressive and look to move out of the region by next weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Showers are still impacting RME early this morning, but should move out by 13z. Lingering MVFR CIGs will be around the region until around 16-18z, when drier mid level air moves in, lifting and scattering the CIGs (to VFR). After the initial trough passage, more scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop late morning and into the afternoon hours. Included PROB30 groups for a chance of tsra at our NY TAF sites (mainly 16-21z today), probabilities were too low to include at AVP at this time. VFR conditions are then expected to prevail over the area this evening into tonight, as the lake effect rain bands stay just north. Southeast winds 5 to 15 kts early this morning are forecast to turn west-southwest later today and increase between 8-18 kts over the area. Winds then diminish below 10 kts heading into this evening and overnight. Outlook... Monday...Scattered showers at the Central NY terminals with associated restrictions possible. Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DK AVIATION...MJM  241 FXUS62 KTAE 231038 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 638 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 634 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Daily chances of showers and storms will continue for the next several days. Overall, rain chances are lowest for today, then increase through the workweek. The strongest storms are expected to produce wind gusts of 40-60 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain. - Hot temperatures combined with just enough humidity are expected to result in peak heat index values of 108-112F this afternoon across portions of the Florida panhandle and big bend, prompting a heat advisory in those areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 For today, some drier air will make it into our northernmost areas, which will knock a few degrees off the heat index values there this afternoon. In terms of thunderstorm chances, there is still some discrepancy in the hi-res guidance regarding coverage of storms during the afternoon hours. If storms can get going, then there will be strong instability and some mid-level dry air to work with for some strong wind gusts in the strongest storms. The SPC has a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms over a large portion of the area for this afternoon. Otherwise, it will be quite hot with many areas in the mid to upper 90s. Somewhat drier air is expected to limit most heat index values to below 108F, but one exception is expected to be across portions of the Florida panhandle and big bend close to the coast and in the Apalachicola National Forest. In those areas, a heat advisory is in effect this afternoon for peak heat index values of 108-112F. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Heading into the workweek, we'll have a large ridge over the southwest US with weak disturbances riding up and around the ridge. This kind of northwest flow regime aloft can lead to rounds of more organized clusters of showers and storms moving into our area. Thus, rain chances will gradually increase to near or above seasonal normals, but the exact timing of these disturbances is hard to pin down. If organized clusters of storms develop, then the chances for strong to potentially severe storms would increase. We'll have to watch for this potential on Monday in particular. Summertime heat and humidity will continue to roll along with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the 100-110 range each day, hottest across Florida. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Some fog and low stratus has formed around a few of our TAF sites this morning, notably KECP. This fog/stratus should lift shortly after sunrise, giving way to generally VFR conditions most of the day. Have maintained PROB30 groups for all TAF sites, although hi-res guidance has eased back on rain chances some this afternoon. There is a low, less than 20%, chance of TAF sites experiencing fog/stratus again Monday morning; however, those chances would increase should any rain fall over any of the sites near/after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Gentle to occasionally moderate southwesterly flow will continue over the waters for the next several days. Scattered showers and storms are possible each day, mainly in the overnight and morning hours, decreasing in the afternoon. The main exception will be for any clusters of storms that move off the coast this week during the late afternoon or evening hours. Seas will remain around 1 to 2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Generally light west to southwest transport winds will continue through the next several days. Dispersions will remain good overall each afternoon, though pockets of high dispersions are possible near the I-75 corridor Monday into Tuesday as mixing heights increase. Isolated storms are possible today with increasing coverage of storms again Monday and Tuesday. Gusty, erratic winds and dangerous lightning strikes will be possible. Some drier air moves into the area today before moistening back up again Monday into Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall over the next several days. If the storms are slow-moving, then they could produce several inches of rain in a short period of time. This would lead to some nuisance to isolated flash flood concerns, particularly is low- lying or poor drainage areas. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 98 75 95 73 / 20 20 70 40 Panama City 94 79 92 77 / 20 10 40 40 Dothan 97 74 95 72 / 30 20 60 30 Albany 97 73 95 72 / 20 20 40 30 Valdosta 97 74 96 72 / 20 20 60 50 Cross City 93 74 94 73 / 50 10 30 10 Apalachicola 92 79 91 77 / 20 10 30 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ012>015-027-112-114-115-118-127- 326-426. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM....DVD AVIATION...Reese MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...DVD  397 FXUS62 KGSP 231042 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 642 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The aviation discussion was updated for the upcoming 12Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dry weather with more comfortable humidity returns to the region today and continues through Tuesday. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances return Wednesday and continue through the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Dry weather with more comfortable humidity returns to the region today and continues through Tuesday. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances return Wednesday and continue through the rest of the week. A deep upper trough is pivoting to a negative tilt over the OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic today, and will close off into a large upper low over the Great Lakes. This will keep a relatively dry, NWLY mid-upper flow atop the CWFA thru Monday. A sfc cold front will cross the area early this morning, ushering in much lower dewpts, as downslope and deep mixing help bring dewpts down into the 50s to lower 60s across the area. Temps will top out near normal, but it should feel nice compared to the normal humidity for late August. The dry air will keep the air mass stable, so a dry fcst is on tap. This will continue thru Monday, as little change in pattern expected. Then, Tuesday will be the beginning of a transition toward higher humidity and a gradual return of diurnal convection chances. latest guidance keeps Tuesday largely dry, then isolated to scattered convection will be possible late Wednesday aftn thru Wednesday evening, as a weak warm front brings higher dewpts in from the south and east. An upper trough digs into the Mid-MS Valley on Thursday and brings an associated cold front toward the forecast area. Guidance is in pretty good agreement on more widespread convective coverage, and NBM already has likely PoPs across most of the area. Scattered diurnal convection looks to continue Friday and into next weekend, as the front stalls out in the area and keeps warm and humid conditions in place. Overall, temps will be near to slightly above normal from Wednesday onward. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Patchy fog and low stratus has formed early this morning, but should quickly burn off within an hour or two of sunrise, as dry air and mixing picks up. As drier air spreads across the region today, no deep convection is expected, with just some high-based Cu. Winds become N to NW mid to late morning, with low-end gusts at KAVL. KAND will see a westerly wind. Light wind and mainly some Ci overnight should allow for mountain valley fog to form. Will go with MVFR vsby and sct low clouds at KAVL for now. Outlook: No significant chance of convection until Wednesday with an even better chance on Thursday. Mountain valley fog and low stratus is possible each morning. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ ARK  425 FXUS63 KOAX 231043 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 543 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool temperatures and cloudy skies today with highs in the 70s expected. Light rain is likely (50-60%) across portions of eastern Nebraska - less rain in the far east and across western Iowa. - Another round of showers and thunderstorms likely early Monday morning with drying in the afternoon. - Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances continue next week, with high temperatures generally in the mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Sunday and Monday A weak surface high remains in place across the Central and Northern Plains early this morning. Winds are light and there is a thin band of cirrus streaming across the area. With time this morning, winds will slowly veer to the south, but they may actually go calm at number of locations. While patchy fog in low lying areas is still possible near sunrise, there are a couple factors working against it. There is a slightly drier boundary layer after good mixing on Saturday and light northerly winds, plus being another day removed from rainfall across far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Also, mid-high clouds look to expand across the area between 4-7 AM CT, which would put a lid on the radiative cooling. Stepping upward in the atmosphere, ridging over the Intermountain West leaves the local area in a northwest flow pattern both in the short term and beyond as the pattern looks to remain fairly stubborn over the next several days. There is a healthy fetch of moisture off to our west as well with a 1.25+" PWAT contour extending from west Texas to the Canadian border across the High Plains. There has also been expansive convection across the higher terrain overnight. Showers with embedded thunder are expected to walk across western and central Nebraska this morning. Instability and deep layer shear are minimal across the area this morning, so even thunder might be hard to come by across eastern Nebraska. Nonetheless, light showers are expected today along with more mid-level cloud cover. This will keep today's temperatures cooler. It's sort of a rinse and repeat pattern on Monday with convection wrapping around the ridge to our west and working across the area. Convective initiation looks likely upstream in SD aided by pronounced 925-850mb WAA between 1am-10am Monday. MUCAPE is also a little better, ~500-1000 J/Kg, across northeast NE during this time with values diminishing south and east. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out on Monday - especially near the SD/NE border. Tuesday and Beyond As previous discussions have mentioned, the northwest flow pattern will remain in place through the work week with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms - generally weak in nature. It is really tough to pin down precip timing and amounts in patterns such as these. The forcing for ascent is hard to track with not much run-to-run continuity in the model guidance, and the forcing is often weak. While shortwaves embedded in the flow have the potential to kick of showers, they are hard to diagnosis beyond 24 hours. Nonetheless, we will have several more chances to add to our hot start in terms of August precipitation: Omaha - 5.37" (+2.08) Lincoln - 4.57" (+2.31) Norfolk - 5.12" (+2.55) Looking at 500mb heights from the WPC cluster analysis (EPS/GEFS/CMCE) as we head toward the end of August, we still maintain positive height anomalies across most of the central U.S. Thus, no big cool downs appear to be on the horizon, although the ridge axis might shift 1-2 states to the west. That'd likely mean better chances for dry weather past Day 7. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...Issued at 529 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Patchy fog has developed around KOLU this morning. The fog thus far has not been widespread and is not currently expected to result in any widespread issues; however, localized visibilities of one mile or less have been reported in a few low-lying areas. KOFK: Thunderstorms have developed across central and north central Nebraska this morning. These storms will gradually make their way into the vicinity of the terminal by 14Z. Showers and storms will continue to develop and move over the terminal through this evening, eventually clearing out overnight. KOMA: KOMA will have two chances of shower/storm activity today. The first is a 15-20% chance of a few showers and maybe a rumble of thunder after 19Z. There is still some question about how far east storms currently over central Nebraska will make it. The better chance (40-50%) for storms will be after 08Z as a line of storms develops over eastern Nebraska. KLNK: The terminal can expect two rounds of showers and storms today. Thunderstorms have developed across central and north central Nebraska this morning. These storms will slowly move to the east, into the vicinity of the terminal late this morning/early this afternoon. A potential second round of thunderstorm activity is expected to arrive by 03Z. Southerly winds will shift to the southwest this afternoon, becoming south-southeast around 0-10kts this evening/tonight. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CLF AVIATION...ANW  423 FXUS64 KLIX 231043 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 543 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 543 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Dangerous heat continues with afternoon heat indices in the 105-113 well into the new week. Warm overnight temperatures will offer limited relief. Those with outdoor plans should take precautions to avoid heat-related illness. Stay hydrated, wear light-weight and loose fitting clothes, and take breaks in the shade or air conditioning. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast during the mid to late afternoon hours today and Monday. A few storms could become strong to severe, producing gusty winds, frequent lightning and brief periods of heavy rain. When thunder roars, go indoors. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 1006 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The next several days will depend on subtle shifts in the large scale synoptic players on the NAC(North American Continental) stage. These are very simplistic and are made up of the large upper level stacked high over the west and the large upper level trough over the east. Any flexing of one or both of these systems will have impacts here since we are so close to where these two systems interface. Looking at the H3 level, one can see a saddle moving through the area this morning. This is being caused by the high to the west splitting air away from the low(trough) to the east. The saddle is not what gives us any real issues, instead it more or less stagnates things which is the reason we went to much lower precip chances within a day. But the flow to the north of this saddle is strongly divergent and is the area that moves over us later today and remains Monday. This divergent flow shifts to the east by Tue and Wed. One would think that 25-30kt winds at H3 is not very strong, but on the contrary, these speeds are actually moderate to strong for this time of year at this latitude. The split(divergent) flow aloft is a major key to the added weakness over the area later today and Monday. When split flows occur at the sfc, it causes stability as air sinks to take its place and in doing so warms and becomes more stable. It is exactly the opposite when it occurs in the upper levels. When this occurs, the split flow is responsible for layer lifting below and destabilization. Eventhough weak instability will occur, that is all that is needed to help convective currents break through inversions via buoyant forcing once the hottest temps of the day are achieved. As this area shifts east Tue and Wed, it simply means the ridge to our west takes more control of the area causing stronger stability, making it harder to break through the inversion levels with just buoyancy forcing alone. This makes it easier to see how subtle the flexing of these systems can change impacts to the area quite a bit. SPC has set a marginal risk for severe, and these levels are appropriate for this scenario as we should see isolated severe today and tomorrow, but with a few more of these type of storms Mon. Since these system shifts are so minor and subtle, it does not take much to be off on a fcast even in the short time scale. Either way, the heat will continue and it almost seems that the only thing that will break it is the fall season. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 1006 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 During the latter part of the work week, a persistent upper level low located over eastern Canada will finally start to lift northeastward as another low dives toward the Great Lakes region. This will cause the sharp eastern CONUS trough to flatten somewhat and will also shunt the stubborn upper high that has been sitting over Texas a bit farther west. The breakdown of the ridging aloft locally should mark a return (at least temporarily) to a more normal afternoon shower and thunderstorm pattern across the local area. Assuming it holds, the upward trend in rain chances will be beneficial in multiple ways. First, it will contribute to hopefully improving the abnormally dry (D0) to moderate drought (D1) conditions across much of the area. And second, with increased cloud cover and outflow boundaries abound from the showers and storms, afternoon temperatures will come down from their recent stay in the mid to upper 90s. Expect to see afternoon temperatures return to near or just slightly above normal, topping out in the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows will likely remain at least a couple degrees warmer than normal despite a slight cooling trend into the low to mid 70s by the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Most of this cycle will be VFR at all terminals, but there will be more TSRA developing during the afternoon/evening hours bringing another round of wind and lower flight restriction levels for those sites impacted. All activity will decay after sunset bringing VFR to all sites for the remainder of this package. && .MARINE... Issued at 1006 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Surface high pressure centered over the central Gulf will maintain a generally weak pressure gradient through much of the period. Weak and variable winds around 5 to 10 knots will become W then SW to start the week. A predominantly light southerly flow will set up by mid week and remain through the end of the week. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible with winds and waves higher in and near this activity. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087- 089>100. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....DS AVIATION...TE MARINE...TE  493 FXUS61 KBUF 231045 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 645 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Fine-tuned lake effect band placement for tonight as well as Monday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Showers and thunderstorms today, with a few potentially strong to severe. 2.) Cool, upper level low to bring lake effect rain this afternoon through Tuesday night. Cool tonight through Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Showers and thunderstorms today, with a few potentially strong to severe. This early morning a surface low is near eastern Georgian Bay, with a cold front draped across WNY. A southerly flow ahead of the cold front will become more southwesterly behind the frontal passage for today. Aloft a closed and negatively tilted mid and upper level low is centered over the Central Great Lakes, with water vapor imagery displaying a shortwave trough diving towards Lake Superior. For today overall severe threat is marginal, with SPC outlining our entire region with a marginal risk. MUCAPE values range 500 to 1000 J/KG ahead of the cold front, with DCAPE values peaking around 1200 J/KG this early afternoon east of Lake Ontario. This front is expected to clear our eastern zones by mid afternoon. Flow through the lower levels is moderate with 0-6 km effect bulk shear values reaching 45 knots...which suggests any stronger storms building within a layer with increasing low level lapse rates of 6.5 to 7.0 C/Km could bring a few strong to damaging wind gusts...for which a marginal risk for severe storms is in effect, especially for our eastern zones. The increasing lapse rates with the approach of the cool upper level low could also yield large hail with any taller storms. Key Message 2...Cool, upper level low to bring lake effect rain this afternoon through Tuesday night. Cool tonight through Monday night. Behind the cold front, an early taste of fall tonight through Monday night as a cool upper level low rotates across our region. Temperatures at 850 hPa will plummet towards +7 to +8C across the warm eastern Great Lakes. This will generate a lake effect rain response with the cool air flowing over the very warm lakes. Initial moist cyclonic flow, combined with the approach of a shortwave trough from the Upper Great Lakes will bring both lake enhanced as well as upslope rain showers east of both eastern Great lakes. A southwest flow tonight will lift any organizing lake effect rain bands towards Buffalo and Watertown. Ahead of the closed low, a more southerly flow should push the band of rain off Lake Ontario up towards the Saint Lawrence Valley. Broken bands of lake effect rain will become disorganized through the day Monday with daytime heating and the passage of a trough. This trough could also spark a few thunderstorms through the day. Behind the trough a freshening westerly flow will bring organizing lake effect rain bands southward to areas south of Buffalo and towards the central Tug Hill Plateau. This rain will diminish Monday night off Lake Erie, and Tuesday and Tuesday night off Lake Ontario. In addition to the rain, there will be the potential for waterspouts along lake convergent boundaries with tall EL heights combined with the cool air associated with the upper level low over the warm lakes. Overnight lows will be some 5 to 8 degrees below normal tonight and Monday night, while high temperatures Monday will be some 10 to 15 degrees below late August normals. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... For the 12Z TAFS a surface low is wobbling eastward to the north of Lake Ontario, while slowly dragging a cold front across the TAF region. This will bring several rounds of showers and isolated thunder...initially this morning along the front, with more widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms in the late morning and early afternoon towards the east where limited daytime heating should yield enough instability to bring scattered coverage to storms. Early morning stratus IFR clouds across the Southern Tier are expected to lift with daytime heating. Expect largely MVFR to VFR ceiling heights through the early afternoon hours, with brief IFR/MVFR visibilities in any stronger downpours of rain. Behind the front, cool and moist cyclonic flow will bring rain showers and MVFR to IFR flight conditions to the TAF sites east of Lake Erie that will likely persist through the remainder of tonight. Much of the lower flight restrictions will be ceiling based. Additional plume of lake effect rain is expected off Lake Ontario, near KART later tonight. This plume may be better organized along the longer fetch of Lake Ontario such that IFR/MVFR visibilities will be possible for KART. Outlook... Monday...Periodic showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms with associated MVFR/IFR, with mainly VFR expected outside of any precipitation. Monday night through Tuesday night...Lake effect rain, mainly east and southeast of the Lakes with associated restrictions diminishing off Lake Erie Monday night and Tuesday and off Lake Ontario Tuesday and Tuesday night. Otherwise mainly VFR. Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Thursday...Mainly VFR, except MVFR/IFR conditions possible from scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Behind a cold front passage today, an upper level low will bring an early taste of autumn with a brisk west wind developing within a decently strong pressure gradient and moderate instability over the Lakes. While initial southerly flow Sunday should bring Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions to the lakes Sunday, the southwest flow under the upper level low Sunday night through Monday night, and then westerly flow Tuesday, will likely continue the choppy waters on the Lakes with SCA likely. In addition to the brisk winds, there will be the potential for waterspouts with the development of sizable lake-induced instability as cool air associated with cyclonic flow around the upper-level low crosses the warm lakes. The waterspout threat should continue through Tuesday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for NYZ001>007. Beach Hazards Statement through late Monday night for NYZ010- 019-085. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LOZ042>044. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LOZ045. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thomas AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Jaszka/Thomas  437 FXUS64 KEWX 231043 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 543 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 535 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Extreme Heat Warning in effect Sunday for portions of the Hill Country, Austin area, and Coastal Plains. - Potentially dangerous temperatures continue across much of South Central Texas through midweek. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Dangerous heat is anticipated today. Forecast highs this afternoon are above 100F for nearly all of South Central Texas with maxima in the 103F to 107F range for many areas. The latest probabilistic blend of models indicates an over 70% chance that many areas straddling the Colorado River will see highs over 105F this afternoon. Several changes were made to our active heat products to reflect this higher confidence in heat potential. An Extreme Heat Warning is now in effect for areas along the TX-71 corridor, including the Austin area and extending into portions of the Coastal Plains. The preexisting Heat Advisory was also expanded to include additional counties along the Balcones Escarpment into the Winter Garden region. Flow in the latest guidance shows slightly backed surface winds compared to Saturday, which could nudge temperatures higher. Moisture mixing may be slightly more favorable Sunday given this orientation but will likely be too marginal to offer much thermal relief. With the nearby low level theta-e ridge axis remaining mostly to our north, the chance of an isolated afternoon shower bringing a slight cooldown is low, with small chances less than 20% limited to the northern Hill Country. Conditions won't be very different as we head into the workweek with little displacement of the current warm continental airmass, remaining hot and dry. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Little substantive change to the weather pattern is expected for much of the week as strong ridging stays nearly stationary over the southern Rockies into northern Mexico. Temperatures and moisture won't change much with highs staying above 100F for most areas with only a degree or two of day to day variation across the statistical, consensus, and blended models. With high confidence in the heat wave continuing, Heat Advisory products have been extended through Wednesday across much of South Central Texas, and there is some possibility that the heat wave could remain intense after midweek. Later in the week, the core of the dominant ridge slides slightly farther west closer to Arizona. This could provide a little more leeway for an isolated shower or storm to reach our area Thursday or Friday, but the overall setup does not favor much longevity from this potential, and rain chances during that stretch remain generally less than 30 percent for most areas. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 535 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR flight conditions continue. Some scattered high clouds across the eastern and central half of the region this morning will be expected to decrease into the afternoon. Otherwise, a few low clouds may be possible after sunrise this morning and into Sunday morning briefly but impacts are not expected. Winds should stay mostly light, generally 10 kt or less, out of the south-southwest to east-southeast in direction. The sea breeze after sunset will help to kick up breezes slightly for the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF) between 01Z and 05Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 107 79 106 77 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 105 78 104 77 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 104 76 103 74 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 103 76 103 74 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 105 77 104 77 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 105 79 104 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 102 74 101 73 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 104 76 103 75 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 105 76 104 77 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 104 77 102 76 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 105 76 104 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ171>173- 192>194-208-209-223-225. Heat Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ171>173-192>194-208-209-223-225. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ187-189-190-204- 219. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ191-205>207- 220>222-224. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...62  697 FXUS62 KCAE 231047 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 647 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Drier conditions to start the week outside of isolated showers/storms; precipitation chances increase midweek. Updated 12z Aviation. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm chances each day this week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm chances each day into next week. Calmer conditions are expected to settle in for Sunday as shower and thunderstorm activity shifts east toward the coastal plain. Meanwhile, drier air and some mid-level subsidence should help clear cloud cover from the Midlands and CSRA. NAEFS ensemble means suggest PWAT values falling toward the 10th percentile, generally around 1.25 inches. While a stray thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out during peak afternoon heating, particularly along the stronger moisture gradient across the southern and eastern portions of the FA, most locations should remain dry Sunday. Generally quiet conditions are expected through the first half of the week as a relatively dry air mass remains in place. Rain chances should stay low through Monday, with only isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms possible during the early part of the week. Moisture will gradually increase from mid to late week, resulting in a trend toward higher afternoon storm coverage. LREF probabilities indicate a 50-70 percent chance of PWAT values exceeding 1.75 inches from Wednesday onward. Upper- level troughing will also begin to shift into the region, supporting increasing moisture and greater chances for afternoon thunderstorms. Weak shortwaves embedded within the flow should also provide additional forcing for convection. Temperatures are expected to gradually warm as this overall pattern persists into next weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Brief restrictions possible early with VFR conditions expected shortly after sunrise. Patchy visibility and ceiling restrictions this morning with low level moisture in place. While brief restrictions will continue to be possible for an hour or two, moisture remains fairly shallow so improvement is expected quicker compared to yesterday. Isolated storms once again this afternoon and evening so have included a prob30 group for tsra for the Augusta terminals and OGB with highest confidence in thunderstorms affecting these terminals. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated storms each afternoon with higher coverage of storms expected by midweek. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ND AVIATION...96  768 FXUS61 KGYX 231050 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 650 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor update to the Aviation section for the 12Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A cutoff low in the Great Lakes brings unsettled conditions into the start of the week with generally light rainfall amounts. 2. Mostly dry conditions through mid week with comfortable dew points. Humidity increases by late week ahead of another system. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A cut off low remains in the Great Lakes region for the next few days. Moisture continues to be drawn northward into New England, while a wave of moisture passes by offshore. This brings low level moisture, sprinkles, and intermittent drizzle through the first half of the day today, especially along the Maine coast. New Hampshire sees more of the way of breaks of sun today, especially across western areas. The warmer conditions across western NH provide more instability ahead of an approaching cold front extending from the cut off low. Given the set up, a few strong to severe storms are possible across New Hampshire today, with wind gusts and hail both a concern. The marine layer looks to limit the potential across Maine, with a gradual weakening trend expected as the storms move eastward. The front won't pass east of the area until Monday, bringing another night of low clouds, fog, and scattered showers tonight along the coast and in Maine. Lows generally bottom out in the mid 50s to low 60s across the area, with some drier air working in behind the front across western New Hampshire by daybreak on Monday. The front will likely be passing through Maine during the day on Monday. This brings a chance for scattered thunderstorms by midday, with a chance for a strong storm possible across parts of Central Maine. The front then clears the area by late in the day, with drier air working in late in the day. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Upper-level low will continue to spin through Quebec Tuesday before finally ejecting out of the area by Wednesday. Likely will have another day of diurnal clouds/brief downpours fueled by the cold pool aloft, focused in the higher terrain in the north. Dew points will remain comfortable with the westerly flow, however. On Wednesday the low loses its grip with brief height rises bringing tranquil conditions. By late week ensembles show another wave heading our way. With a developing trough to our west, likely will see southerly flow developing and returning humidity northward. Both the GFS and ECMWF fully occlude this low in Canada, similar to the previous system. However the placement of the low has trended further north up towards Hudson Bay rather than central Quebec. If this comes to fruition, it would suggest more of a glancing blow to the trough. As such expecting forcing to be a bit more nebulous, but there will still be the potential for widespread precipitation if sufficient moisture can be advected into the region. At minimum looks like a period of more humid conditions Thurs-Fri with southerly flow developing. Temperatures are lower confidence given cloud cover and potential onshore flow, but with 850 mb temps hanging out around 13- 15 C, no signs for hot temperatures. Deterministic guidance currently suggests a chance for rain late Thurs especially across New Hampshire, but Friday will probably bring a higher chance to the entire forecast area. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Marine FG/stratus lingers through late morning to early afternoon along the coast and at Maine sites with IFR-LIFR. Scattered SHRA are possible spreading west to east through the day. Some improvement to MVFR and VFR is possible by evening. TSRA is possible between 2-8PM, mainly across New Hampshire terminals. Storms will be capable of locally strong winds and possible GR. IFR to LIFR is likely at most TAF sites in low CIGs and reduced visibility in fog. Conditions then improve to MVFR and VFR from west to east during the day on Monday, with showers and storms possible Monday afternoon across the mountains towards LEB. Outlook: Monday night: VFR conditions expected. Tuesday: Local MVFR or lower possible in showers. Tuesday night and Wednesday: VFR conditions expected. Thursday: Mainly VFR but local MVFR or lower in showers late in the day. && .MARINE... Conditions remain below SCA levels through Monday as a slow moving cold front approaches the waters today, and passes through on Monday. Reduced visibility in marine fog is likely through midday Monday. Fair conditions then prevail through midweek as broad high pressure builds across the waters. A cold front then approaches the waters late in the week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barker/Clair AVIATION...Schroeter MARINE...  769 FXUS63 KARX 231050 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 550 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and pleasant conditions through Monday with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. - Next widespread chance (25 to 55%) for showers and storms in Tuesday into Wednesday. - Seasonable temperatures continue for the rest of this week with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Today - Monday: Dry and Seasonable Northwest flow continues through Monday as a trough sits off to our east and a ridge to our west. This ridge decays as it moves eastward as we go through Monday. With the ridge axis over the central CONUS today and Monday dry conditions continue and high temperatures remain slightly cooler than normal in the mid 70s to low 80s. Dewpoints also remain on the lower side, in the 40s and 50s. The only forecast concern over the next couple of days is some fog. Through this morning it looks to be confined mainly to Mississippi River tributaries. Heading into tonight/early Monday morning, the winds shift to the east southeast which could help the fog potential become more widespread, depending on how when upper level clouds move in. Overall though, a really nice couple of days are in store for us! Tuesday - Wednesday: Storm Potential Circling back to the current conditions, a trough just moved onshore in the Pacific Northwest. This trough will ride around the ridge and eventually move over the Upper Midwest for Tuesday into Wednesday. Forecast soundings from the deterministic GFS and ECMWF show some low-level curvature and elongation with their hodographs. This is slightly different from previous soundings from this morning which highlighted more elongation with little curvature. The GFS and ECMWF both have quite a bit of DCAPE (around 1000 to 1200 J/kg) and modest 0-6km shear (35 to 50 kts). All this to say that if storms can initiate then these parameters would support severe convection. The one caveat to this forecast is that we are still 3 days out from this event, so there are quite a bit of details to iron out still so stay tuned for further updates on this storm potential. Thursday - Sunday: Dry Early with Increased Storm Potential for the Weekend With the trough exiting the region on Wednesday, northwest flow returns for Thursday and Friday resulting in mostly dry conditions. The flow then shifts to a more quasi zonal/northwest flow pattern. Precipitation chances look to increase as we head into the weekend as a couple of shortwaves pass through the region. There is still uncertainty given we are this far out from these waves impacting the region, however a few ensemble members of the GEFS and EPS due show some potential (10%) of 1 to 2" of rain possible. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 548 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 While VFR conditions are favored through the period, some potential for river valley fog after 06z as winds, out of the northwest for the first 12-18 hours, become very light and out of the southeast. Confidence in this occurring at LSE was too low for a mention at this time since a second consecutive dry afternoon is on tap for Sunday. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cecava AVIATION...Ferguson  835 FXUS61 KRNK 231052 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 652 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation Forecast Updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Drier cooler weather returns today and continues into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Drier cooler weather returns today and continues into early next week. High pressure will build in today, driving cooler and drier air across the region into the middle of the week. An upper-level trough will linger overhead, though it will only yield a few fair- weather clouds during the afternoon hours. Mostly clear skies will ensure zero chance of rain through Wednesday. Temperatures will run cooler than normal through Tuesday, with highs settling in the 70s west of the Blue Ridge and the 80s to the east. Nighttime temperatures will drop into the crisp 50s. By Thursday, the primary high-pressure system will finally break down, allowing the Bermuda High to slide over the region and draw a steady stream of muggy moisture back into the area. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front will move east of the area this morning. Behind the boundary, sub-VFR ceilings will linger along western slopes (KBLF) and persist through the rest of the morning. Elsewhere will remain VFR through the period. Winds will become northwesterly, increasing to 8 to 15 knots with gusts reaching up to 20 knots. OUTLOOK... Drier airmass will sink into the area today and remain into early next week. Should be mainly VFR aside from any late night fog, mainly KLWB. Next system appears to bring some chances for storms Thursday with possibility for sub-VFR cigs/vsbys. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RCS AVIATION...RCS  812 FXUS62 KMHX 231051 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 651 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant forecast or messaging changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Localized severe threat for coastal areas this afternoon 2) A thunderstorm risk, some potentially severe, Monday afternoon east of HWY 17 3) Reduced thunderstorm risk possible Tuesday and Wednesday, with unsettled weather returning by late week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front will translate east across North Carolina today, then stall along the coast as frontal forcing weakens and shifts NE well away from the region. It still appears that the combination of the seabreeze and the stalled front will support an area of enhanced low-level convergence focused right along the immediate coast. Forcing will be aided by a shortwave moving through the area and jet entrance region dynamics. Meanwhile, and area of modest mid-level lapse rates will overspread a moist boundary layer characterized by dewpoints in the 70s in the vicinity of the front. Heating of this airmass should yield moderate to strong instability with MLCAPE of around 2000 j/kg. While low-level flow is forecast to be weak, modest mid-upper level flow should support deep layer shear of 25-30k, favoring organized multicells. While the front will be slightly removed from the strongest shear, short-term guidance suggests the potential for a few rotating updrafts/loosely organized supercells. While drier air aloft will help support DCAPE of 1000j/kg+ and an increased potential for strong downdrafts, it may also impact the sustenance of deep convection. That said, the setup appears supportive of at least a few longer-lived cells capable of damaging winds. If any sustained rotating updraft can develop, there could also be a risk of hail. While the convective risk should primarily be diurnally-driven, the front in the area plus plenty of elevated instability may allow a low-end thunderstorm risk through the night. KEY MESSAGE 2...Guidance is in good agreement depicting a weak surface low lifting northeast along a front that should be stalled along the coast of the Carolinas on Monday. In fact, as the low lifts through, it may pull the front back to the west slightly. Once again, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop along the front with MLCAPE around 2000 j/kg. One potential difference on Monday is that deep layer shear may get a slight boost along the track of the surface low. This may open the door for a slightly improved potential for a few loosely organized supercells. At minimum, it should support a continued risk of organized multicell clusters. With the front potentially getting pulled west some, the convective risk may also expand west some and not be confined to the coast only. That said, it still appears that the greatest risk of strong to severe thunderstorms will be east of HWY 17. The Storm Prediction Center has added a marginal severe weather risk for our eastern counties. Once again, the primary risk looks to be damaging wind gusts. But, any rotating updraft will be capable of some hail. KEY MESSAGE 3...Guidance has been waffling some on whether or not the airmass can fully dry out Tuesday and Wednesday as the Sunday/Monday front may still be stalled nearby. While the convective risk may not completely drop off, it looks like it may be reduced for a day or two. Moisture and instability then begin to rebuild across the Southeast U.S. coastline with the potential for another round of unsettled weather. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecast confidence is moderate to high over the next 24 hours. Despite a somewhat drier airmass moving into the area, there has still be enough support for an area of low stratus and BR/FG from central into eastern NC early this morning. The greatest impact is expected to the west of ENC, but may briefly impact KOAJ, KISO, and KPGV. A drying westerly flow should lead to a fairly quick mixing out of any low CIGs/reduced VIS by 13z. During the day today, a cold front will move into the area and then stall. Guidance is in good agreement with the front stalling along the coast, which should keep the TSRA risk just east of the TAF sites. It may be close for KOAJ and KEWN, but given the reduced risk, the PROB30s have been left out for both sites for now. Outlook: A front will remain stalled along the coast of the Carolinas through at least Tuesday. The front may get pulled west a bit on Monday and Tuesday as a couple of lows ride north along it. This would up the TSRA risk some, especially from KOAJ to KEWN. A risk of sub-VFR conditions would accompany any TSRA risk as well. && .MARINE... A cold front will move into ENC today, then stall across the area over the next couple of days. A couple of weak areas of low pressure are then forecast to lift northeast along the front today and Monday. This should continue to favor periods of thunderstorms. The background flow is expected to be the strongest early this morning (SW at 10-20kt). The gradient will then relax some as the front moves in and stalls. Varying wind directions are expected as the pair of lows move through, but neither low looks all that strong. For the coastal waters, seas of 2-4ft are expected today, highest this morning. Seas of 2-3ft are then expected on Monday. Outlook: Winds will become northeasterly for a brief time on Tuesday before southerly flow returns by the middle of the week, and lasting into the end of the week. Seas should generally hold around 2-3ft through Thursday, then build to 3-5ft late in the week. The risk of thunderstorms may decrease some Tuesday and Wednesday before increasing again later in the week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RM AVIATION...RM MARINE...RM  839 FXUS66 KPQR 231052 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 352 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure moving over the area will send a weak cold front through the area tonight. Expect near average daytime highs through the week. Ridging builds back into the area early next week, increasing temperatures back into the mid to upper 80s across the interior lowlands. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday...Upper level troughing continues to move northeast toward southwestern Canada. This is supporting light, scattered showers over southwestern Washington and the coast range early this morning. Radar indicates shallow returns over the area and surface observations report rainfall totals of a few hundredths. Showers are expected to dissipate by late this morning as zonal flow develops in the wake of the upper level trough. Highs will again be around to a few degrees below average in the upper 70s to low 80s for interior lowlands. Winds shift from southerly to northerly as surface high pressure builds into the area. Heading into the work week, ensemble clusters favor ridging over the central CONUS and the PacNW. Warmer temperature are expected to return for Monday and Tuesday. Model spread has decreased for high temperatures between the 10th-90th percentiles now ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s on Monday and mid 80s to low 90s for Tuesday for the interior lowlands. Clusters then favor another trough influencing the region by the middle of the week but exact timing and placement are uncertain but onshore flow and seasonable or below average temperatures would be favored. Currently, the 10th-90th percentiles range from the mid 70s to low 80s. An increasing number of ensemble members indicate that light precipitation is possible during the Thursday-Friday timeframe but nothing significant at this time. -19 && .AVIATION...12Z TAFs...An upper-level low continues to slowly move northeast, supporting low and mid-level clouds over the region. Current observations have VFR conditions inland with CIGs generally between 4000-5000 ft and a mix of sub-VFR conditions along the coast. Guidance continues to show lowering CIGs inland after 14-16Z with MVFR cloud cover around 2000-3000 feet expected. Flight conditions expected to improve starting around 18Z-20Z for all terminals, with VFR conditions returning by the afternoon. South/southwest winds will continue through at least 17Z-19Z, shifting to the northwest thereafter. Northerly gusts approaching 25 kt expected along the coast starting around 18Z and will persist through the remainder of the TAF period. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions will lower towards MVFR around 15-16z. Southerly winds expected to persist through around 18Z-20Z with northerly winds thereafter. VFR conditions are also expected to return around the same time period. -19/42 && .MARINE...Northerly winds increase as high pressure strengthens over the northeast Pacific. Gusty winds will develop over the waters, increasing from south to north from Florence to Cape Shoalwater. Wind gusts up to 25 kt are expected to develop during the evening, persisting through Monday afternoon. Small Craft advisories have been issued starting at 5 PM for waters from Florence north to Cape Falcon and starting at 11 PM for waters north of Cape Falcon to Cape Shoalwater. Gusty winds are also expected for the Columbia River bar starting at 8 AM Monday. Seas will be choppy during this time at 3-6 feet at 7-9 seconds. -19 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ251-271. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT Monday for PZZ252-253-272-273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  881 FXUS64 KLZK 231054 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 554 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 -Relatively cooler temperatures will be seen from today through much of the upcoming week, especially compared to the brutal temperatures felt across Arkansas last week. -A Heat Advisory is in place across southern Arkansas for today as heat index values are expected to reach and exceed 105 degrees. -A Marginal Risk for severe weather is present on Sunday across the northwestern quadrant of the state for a few storms which may produce damaging wind gusts on Sunday evening into the early morning hours on Monday. -Northwesterly flow positioned over Arkansas will continue to allow multiple frontal boundaries to impact the state resulting POP chances on multiple days during the forecast period && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 As of 2 AM CDT, storms are exiting the southeastern portion of the state and moving into Mississippi. SUNDAY into EARLY MONDAY: A Heat Advisory has been introduced for today across southern Arkansas where heat index values are expected to peak between 105 and 109 degrees during this afternoon. It is expected during today for southern Arkansas to remain dry overall which will allow heat index values increase into advisory territory. A chance does exist that the Heat Advisory may need expanding northward along the I-40 corridor, but latest guidance does not warrant this. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) will be in place across the northwestern quadrant or northwestern fourth of the state with the main hazard of damaging wind gusts possible with storms that become severe. A mid-level jet streak over southern Missouri and northeastern Arkansas will result in the right entrance region of the jet to be positioned over northeast Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas. The entrance region will promote or enhance lift which will lead to storm development and the storm motion of east-southeast will result in scattered storms moving into a modest, but conditionally unstable parameter space across the northwestern fourth of Arkansas with projected shear values of 30 to 45 knots to support healthy updrafts along with DCAPE values of 500 to 1,000 J/kg which would support isolated instance of damaging wind gusts. The timing of the storms moving into Arkansas will be Sunday evening into Sunday night. MONDAY through SATURDAY: In the upper lvls, northwesterly flow will continue to be present over Arkansas leading to several days over the forecast period in which POPs will be present across parts of the state. Important to note not all locations will experience appreciable rainfall. POPs will be present across eastern Arkansas on Monday night, a large part of the state on Wednesday into Wednesday night (associated with a series of weak frontal boundaries progged to move across the state from north to south), and isolated parts of the state into the next weekend (associated with a boundary which is progged to become stationary across Arkansas). Temperatures overall during the forecast period will be lower than the brutal temperatures experienced over the last week, but a few days, especially those which lack POP chances and increased cloud cover will allow high temperatures to reach 100 degrees across many location and on the trend of temperatures above normal for this time of the year will continue overall. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 553 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Expect VFR flight category for the forecast period from Sunday morning through Monday morning across all sites. A isolated complex of storms are possible to develop and move from northwest to southeast across the state late in the period, but confidence remains low in this solution. However, have introduced VCTS to capture this possibility and VSBY would lower to MVFR or IFR for any TAF site directly impacted by a storm. Expect better timing and confidence at the next TAF issuance at 18Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 94 70 89 70 / 0 30 40 30 Camden AR 99 74 95 73 / 0 20 30 10 Harrison AR 90 68 86 68 / 10 60 50 10 Hot Springs AR 98 74 94 73 / 0 30 40 10 Little Rock AR 97 74 92 74 / 0 40 50 20 Monticello AR 98 75 92 74 / 10 10 50 30 Mount Ida AR 97 72 94 71 / 0 30 40 0 Mountain Home AR 91 68 85 68 / 0 40 50 20 Newport AR 93 70 89 70 / 0 30 40 40 Pine Bluff AR 96 72 91 72 / 0 30 40 30 Russellville AR 96 72 91 71 / 0 40 50 0 Searcy AR 95 70 89 70 / 0 30 60 30 Stuttgart AR 97 73 91 73 / 0 20 50 30 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ052-053-062>069. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...74  874 FXUS65 KTFX 231054 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 454 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front will move across the region today bringing drier and breezy conditions. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon with a chance a few may become severe. - Cooler temperatures will persist over the next couple days before warming up towards the middle of the week. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 1207 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: An upper-level trough will make its way into Montana today with the accompanying surface cold front expected to bring gusty winds to the region along with a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. These thunderstorms will be drier in nature which will also increase fire weather concerns, particularly across Southwest Montana, through the evening. Behind the trough, more zonal flow will set up allowing for temperatures to remain relatively cooler at least over the next couple days before upper-level ridging starts to build by the middle of the week. Lingering monsoonal moisture in the region along with the chance for some additional moisture towards the end of the week may provide daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially for Southwest Montana. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Thunderstorms Sunday: With ample CAPE and shear in place and the cold front moving through, there is decent support for thunderstorm develop across the region this afternoon and evening. The remaining question is how this event will play out. The 00Z suite of hi-res models, particularly the HRRR, came in with much less coverage compared to previous runs and between the remaining hi-res models there is still some disagreement about whether there will be higher coverage in Southwest Montana or Central Montana. Some models like the NAM have pointed towards a threat of thunderstorms forming off the Little Belts and quickly becoming strong as they move into Judith Basin and Fergus county. While uncertainty remains in who will get what, there is confidence that the majority of thunderstorm activity will move off into eastern Montana by 7 PM. Additionally the main hazards will be frequent lightning and strong, gusty winds with hail being a secondary hazard primarily with the initial storms that develop. -thor && .AVIATION... 23/12Z TAF Period The primary concern for this morning is localized dense fog that has developed over the KWYS area. This should begin to thin out with clouds and spotty showers/thunder moving in from the southwest, but a tempo group was added through 15Z to cover the IFR/LIFR conditions there. The weak convective activity should slowly weaken as it moves into SW MT, so the mention of early day showers/thunder was left out of the SW terminals for now. Otherwise, a trough will move northeastward out of the Pacific NW into S BC/AB and send a surface front moving through the Northern Rockies today. This will increase west/southwesterly winds by this afternoon, with gusts generally in the 20 to 35 mph range. There will also be widely scattered showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon, mostly for locations east of I15. Some of these storms may contain wind gusts over 50 kts, brief downpours, and hail in addition to cloud to ground lightning. Primarily VFR conditions will prevail away from stronger convective cores. For KGTF: Westerly winds increase to 10 to 20 kts with gusts up to 35 kts at times roughly between 23/16Z and 24/03Z. Afternoon convection looks to mostly stay east of the terminal but there is around a 30% chance for a shower or storm impacting the terminal. Thunderstorm hazards may include erratic wind gusts over 50 kts, brief downpours, and hail in addition to cloud to ground lightning. - RCG && .FIRE WEATHER... A surface front will bring gusty westerly winds through the afternoon hours across the region. Widespread gusts over 35 mph are possible and will be enhanced by any thunderstorm activity that develops. Minimum RH values will be most critical in Southwest Montana where the RFW is currently in effect for Sunday afternoon and evening. Further north, conditions will be windy but not quite as dry. Additionally there is some disagreement in the latest models as to how the thunderstorms will develop and how widespread they will be. With this uncertainty in place the decision was made to hold off on issuing a RFW for North-Central Montana for now. But elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will be a concern across the entire region. Where thunderstorms do develop, the concerns will be frequent lightning and gusty/erratic winds which may lead to new fire starts and make new and/or existing fires difficult to contain. -thor && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 89 53 81 52 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 80 50 76 48 / 20 0 0 0 HLN 86 50 84 54 / 30 0 0 0 BZN 86 49 83 49 / 50 10 0 0 WYS 78 40 79 41 / 30 10 0 0 DLN 85 47 84 49 / 20 0 0 0 HVR 93 55 82 51 / 50 10 0 0 LWT 89 52 78 48 / 50 10 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  017 FXUS63 KTOP 231058 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 558 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Scattered showers are possible today, with higher chances for storms occurring tonight. -Without a significant change in the pattern, there will continue to be occasional chances for storms through the upcoming workweek. -Cooler today, then temperatures warm back to near average. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Early this morning, a small complex of storms was moving into western KS. Those storms are associated with a shortwave on the northern periphery of the mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern CONUS. Storms will struggle to maintain strength and will likely evolve into widely scattered rain showers as the complex moves into central and eastern KS due to minimal amounts of instability and weak shear. Thus, POPs are mainly in the 20 to 30 percent range throughout the day. Temperatures will also struggle to warm due to cloud cover, which will keep highs on the cool side of average, mainly in the low 80s today. Tonight will bring a higher probability (40-60%) for thunderstorms in response to isentropic ascent on the edge of an increasing LLJ. While there will be more instability to work with, severe weather is not expected overnight. Lingering showers/storms in far eastern KS should dissipate by late morning tomorrow, and afternoon sunshine should allow temps to warm back to near average in the mid to upper 80s along and south of I-70 (slightly cooler north). Another chance for rain arrives in central/north-central KS on Tuesday as another shortwave travels through the northwest flow aloft. POPs expand eastward across the area Tuesday night and early Wednesday along a surface boundary associated with a stronger system over the Great Lakes. Long range models agree on keeping conditions dry on Thursday, but with a similar pattern remaining in place, will have to monitor for the occasional shortwave bringing more rounds of rain late in the week. In the meantime, temperatures will remain near average with lows in the mid 60s and highs in the mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 555 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Have added a brief TEMPO group for KTOP & KMHK for IFR visibility due to very shallow ground fog. Otherwise, have maintained the PROB30 at KMHK for the possibility of rain showers today. There is a slight chance for rain at the Topeka terminals too, however, confidence remains too low for inclusion. Will amend if confidence increases or rain begins to approach the area. Light winds and VFR is expected outside of rain. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Teefey