418 FXUS65 KFGZ 230900 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 200 AM MST Sun Aug 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Moderate monsoon activity will continue through Monday, mainly along the higher terrain during the afternoon and evening hours. Then, as high pressure builds over Arizona, hot and mainly dry conditions are expected to develop as the flow of moisture northward into the region diminishes. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft was centered over New Mexico Sunday morning. It is expected that the high center will slowly drift southward through about Tuesday then westward becoming centered over southeast Arizona by Friday/Saturday. Look for daily chances for showers/thunderstorms across northern Arizona through Tuesday, with diminished chances later in the week as a drier and more stable air mass develops over northern Arizona. For Today...Monsoon moisture will remain in place. As a result, we're looking at another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Much like on Saturday, look for shower and thunderstorm development over the mountains around midday with activity then tending to move north and east with the general flow aloft. Storms during the day will likely be most numerous from the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains northward. Another aspect to keep an eye on is the possibility of a convective blowup over southern Arizona this afternoon and evening. The potential is for a strong outflow boundary to be sent northward interacting with moisture and instability across central to northern Arizona. The result would be a mid to late evening (and even overnight) uptick in showers and storms across portions of northern Arizona (especially along and west of the I-17/Highway 89A corridor). Otherwise, light winds and generally hot conditions. For Monday and Tuesday...Monsoon moisture remains in place with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. The flow aloft will remain southerly with the bulk of activity expected from the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains northward. Otherwise, with the high remaining over the southwest United States, light winds will continue along with above normal temperatures, turning especially hot by Tuesday as high pressure begins to strengthen over Arizona. Looking from Wednesday onward...Models appear to be trending toward high pressure aloft becoming centered over southeast Arizona. This solution would bring in a more southwest to west flow aloft which would deliver a drier air mass as well as a capping layer under the influence of weak subsidence. In addition, daytime temperatures will be on the increase, likely rising to the upper 80 to lower 90s in the mountains to 105 to 110 degrees at elevations below 4000 feet. A reminder that we remain in the grips of summer. && .AVIATION...Sunday 23/06Z through Monday 24/06Z...VFR conditions mostly expected, but brief MVFR conditions possible in heavier SHRA/TSRA. Isolated -SHRA overnight, mainly east of a KPGA-KPAN line. Another round of scattered SHRA/TSRA developing Sunday after 18Z and continuing through at least 03Z. Outside of gusty/erratic outflow driven winds, look for variable daytime winds 5-15 kts. OUTLOOK...Monday 24/06Z through Wednesday 26/06Z...VFR conditions mostly expected. Scattered afternoon/evening mainly high terrain SHRA/TSRA Monday, then coverage decreasing to isolated by Tuesday. Outside of gusty/erratic outflow driven winds, look for daytime winds mainly SW-W 5-15 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Expect daily chances for showers/thunderstorms, with the greatest coverage across the higher terrain. Activity will ramp up around midday then continue through the evening hours both days. Outside of gusty and erratic storm driven winds, look for variable winds generally 10 mph or less. Tuesday through Thursday...Drier conditions will gradually return, with activity becoming limited to the White Mountains by Wednesday and Thursday. Daytime highs are forecast to become quite hot, reaching 10-15 degrees above normal. Look for southwest winds 5-15 mph each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  401 FXUS66 KSGX 230900 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Monsoonal moisture will decrease this weekend, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for the mountains and lower deserts returning for Monday afternoon. Above average high and low temperatures will continue through next week. Widespread moderate to locally major HeatRisk for the coast, valleys, and mountains except near the beaches and for the higher elevations in the mountains, with major to extreme HeatRisk for the lower deserts. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Today through tomorrow night... A strong ridge remains in place through this weekend, with temperatures remaining around 5 to 10 degrees above the seasonal average for this time of year. There will be some monsoonal moisture passing through the mid levels over the region by later on which may allow for a rogue shower or two to develop over the mountains, although it will likely struggle to develop into a thunderstorm, given the lack of instability and overall flow. The marine layer as of this morning has struggled to form with only patchy ceilings along some of the coastal sites, and this will be the case again for tonight. Be advised of all heat products issued, and be sure to stay hydrated! Monday through Friday... There will be a slightly better influx of monsoonal moisture for Monday through the rest of the week, although the mid-level flow will still not be favorable for afternoon shower and thunderstorm development to be significant. However, there will still be the chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon over the mountains and adjacent deserts, especially by later in the week. It will also remain very hot, with only a slight cooldown on Monday and then gradually increasing towards the middle of the week as the ridge remains stationary and locked in over the desert southwest, translating to the persistence of high temperatures remaining on an average of 5 to 10 degrees above average throughout the rest of the work week. The marine layer will likely have similar results, with struggles to form overnight and likely impacting only the coastal areas for the most part. && .AVIATION... 230530Z...Coast...Mostly clear skies over the majority of the coast with just a few clouds based around 1,000ft MSL over south SD coastal waters. Clouds will become more widespread towards 9-10Z but remain patchy and intermittent majority of the night. Moderate confidence on cigs impacting coastal SD between 10-15Z with bases 500-1,000ft MSL. Lowered vis 2-4 SM expected for higher coastal terrain, locally >= 1 SM. Clouds clear over land by 16Z. Otherwise...VFR conditions through the TAF period with mostly clear skies through 18Z. Mid/high clouds AOA 20,000ft MSL expected east of the mountains in the afternoon Sunday. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Wednesday. && .BEACHES... A 4-5 foot southerly swell at 13-15 seconds will move into the area Wednesday and Thursday, leading to elevated surf for the south facing beaches of northern San Diego County and Orange County. Breaking waves of 4 to 6 feet are likely, with the potential for localized sets to 8 feet. Surf gradually subsides on Friday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Friday evening for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Orange County Coastal Areas- Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys- Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Heat Advisory until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for Coachella Valley- San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Stewey AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...CSP  581 FXUS65 KTWC 230902 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 202 AM MST Sun Aug 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms through Monday, then reduced storm chances through much of the remainder of the work week. Strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will be possible with any thunderstorm. High temperatures will remain above normal through the week with an Extreme Heat Warning in effect for much of southeast Arizona. && .DISCUSSION...The main weather story for this week will continue to be the heat with an extended stretch of near record to record high temperatures starting Tuesday. This is all courtesy of an anomalously strong area of high pressure aloft. This high is currently centered over New Mexico and will briefly weaken on Monday for some slight 'cooling', but that will be short lived as the high re-strenthens starting Tuesday and shifts west into Arizona Wednesday, continuing into the weekend. The high pressure aloft will peak in intensity mid to late week with 500mb heights up to around 3 standard deviations above normal. The Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for much of southeast Arizona through Saturday. Outside of the heat concerns, we've still got some monsoonal moisture across our area. Latest IR satellite imagery shows continued southeast flow across our forecast area with clear to partly cloudy skies. Our focus for storms today will once again mostly be on locales from Tucson south and westward (where the greatest instability is) as drier air remains closer to the NM border. Main concern with these storms will continue to be wind with a secondary isolated threat for heavy rain/flash flooding. Included some patchy blowing dust into the forecast later this afternoon into the evening from the T.O. Nation north into Pinal County with some gusty outflow winds there. A very similar setup for storm activity is expected on Monday before a more notable downward trend in convection starting Tuesday and continuing through the rest of the work week with storm chances mostly hugging right along the Int'l border and White Mountains. Generally little if any activity elsewhere as subsidence and drier air aloft limits storm chances. There are some hints of an uptick in convection next weekend as moisture increases and the high might shift just enough for more favorable northeast flow. && .AVIATION...valid through 24/12Z. Generally FEW-SCT clouds 9-13k ft AGL through the forecast period with locally BKN clouds between 23/21Z and 24/09Z. Expect isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA this afternoon into evening, mainly west of a KFHU-KSAD line, diminishing by 24/06Z. Confidence is too low for terminal impacts for KTUS/KOLS to include in TAFs at this time. Gusts in excess of 40 kts are expected with the stronger storms. Otherwise surface winds light and terrain driven. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected through Monday, with the exception of along the NM border where mainly dry conditions are expected. Thereafter, reduced chances for thunderstorm activity for most of southeast Arizona for the rest of the work week, though some isolated storms will continue along the immediate Int'l border and White Mountain region. Temperatures will remain well above normal through most of the week with Monday being the coolest day of the period. Drier conditions will return in the middle of the week with minimum relative humidity values mainly 10- 18 percent in the valleys and 20-30 percent. Winds will generally remain less than 15 mph and terrain driven through the week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ501-502- 504>506-509.&& $$ Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson  734 FXUS65 KMSO 230906 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 306 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Cold front brings cooler temperatures alongside gusty westerly winds, dry air, and increased fire weather today. - Ridge of high pressure rebuilds early this upcoming week with a warming trend. A cold front will continue to sweep across the Northern Rockies today. A few lingering showers or isolated thunderstorms will remain possible this morning before a significantly drier airmass pushes precipitation threats eastward from the I-15 corridor into central Montana. The frontal passage will provide a brief respite from the heat, dropping daytime highs 10 to 15 degrees from what was observed on Saturday bringing temperatures closer to seasonal averages. Deep boundary layer mixing will tap into stronger momentum aloft and drive gusty surface westerly winds across the region through early this evening. The combination of these stronger synoptic winds and a very dry post-frontal airmass will create elevated to critical fire weather conditions today. Winds will gradually decouple and diminish after sunset tonight. A ridge of high pressure rapidly rebuilds over the region early this upcoming week, marking a return to stable and warm if not hot conditions. A mostly dry forecast carries us through at least Wednesday aside from near-daily chances for afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms in Lemhi County and Southwest Montana. Looking toward the mid-to-late portion of the workweek, ensemble guidance continues to identify a return to more active weather with another moderating cooldown, afternoon breezes, and increasing shower and storm chances. && .AVIATION...Lingering morning showers or isolated thunderstorms will quickly diminish as a cold front sweeps across the regional airspace today. A significantly drier airmass will mix into the region marking a return of widespread VFR weather conditions. Deep mixing will produce strong synoptic-scale westerly winds between 15 and 30 knots across all terminals from late morning through the evening hours. Winds decouple and relax close to and after sunset. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Red Flag Warning until 6 AM MDT early this morning for Kootenai...West Lolo. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this evening for Deerlodge/West Beaverhead. ID...None. && $$  482 FXUS63 KFSD 230915 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 415 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and a few storms are likely early this morning in south-central South Dakota, with some lingering activity possible into the afternoon. Severe weather is not expected, but locally heavy rainfall will be possible during any afternoon storm. - The next better chance for showers and storms across a wider part of the area is tonight (50-70%). Locally heavy rain and isolated severe storms are possible. - Otherwise most days through next week will see highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Forecast remains on track this morning with an area of light showers and trailing thunderstorms moving slowly east across south-central South Dakota. Instability is limited east of the Missouri River until mid-late afternoon, so anticipate general weakening as activity attempts to move east this morning. Still seeing some signals in 00Z/06Z guidance pointing to a potential for locally heavy rainfall tonight. The question is exactly where it may materialize as there has been little run to run consistency showing where a line of slow-moving/training storms may set up. Some solutions place this near to just north of the Missouri River, while others shift the risk farther south into north-central Nebraska. This leads to a lower confidence forecast for tonight, both in terms of the isolated severe risk and heavy rain potential addressed in previous discussions below. Issued at 845 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 No major changes to the forecast tonight and tomorrow. Mid to high level clouds are moving into south-central South Dakota associated with our next weak wave moving in. These clouds will continue pushing east-southeastward through the night, and the aforementioned wave will help set off some showers and weak thunderstorms starting in south-central South Dakota early tomorrow morning with this activity gradually spread east- southeastward through the day on Sunday. As it moves eastward, it will outrun any appreciable instability and become just hit or miss light showers/sprinkles as it approaches I-29. Heavy rain looks to be the main threat heading into Sunday night as the low level jet kicks up and sets off more elevated thunderstorms with the aid of an upper wave moving in from the northwest. With the potential of multiple updrafts going up around the same time, there will be plenty of competition for the strongest updraft and this will help limit a severe weather risk. However, if one or two storms can go more isolated and become a more dominant updraft, then perhaps some large hail will be possible given effective shear values around 40-45 kts. Freezing levels will be quite high though, so even if an updraft can sustain itself, hailstones will have a pretty deep warm layer to go through before it were to reach the surface. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 142 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A quiet night is ahead as high pressure drifts east. Southerly flow will develop in central SD later tonight and become more established across the area through Sunday. The light winds will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 50s, especially east of I- 29. The upper level wave responsible for the low level winds turning southerly will move into central SD tomorrow morning, and eastward and southeast from there through the day. With fairly stout low to mid level dry air, mainly an increase in cloud cover is expected through the morning. The exception will be south central SD where enough moisture may allow for 500-1000 J/kg of elevated CAPE, which will support some spotty showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected. Lift will gradually increase through the day into Sunday night, when a moderately stronger LLJ focuses on the area. Given fairly weak shear and CAPE values generally under 1000 J/kg, severe weather looks unlikely. However with a freezing level around 13 kft, locally heavy rain will be possible. Not much agreement on the location of the heavier rain with the models pretty inconsistently placing the mid level wave across the area. Some hints that the LLJ will focus somewhere on the SD side, but confidence is low. This wave moves out of the area on Monday but another weaker wave moves by to the north on Monday night and brings a small increase in warm air advection, which could spark a few showers and thunderstorms. Mainly northwest flow aloft continues Tuesday into next weekend. This will bring periodic small chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the week with little agreement on exactly when. Otherwise lows should mainly be from the mid 50s to mid 60s with highs in the 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Patchy fog remains possible mainly in low lying areas and river valleys east of I-29 early this morning, though widespread issues are not expected. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms look to move into south-central South Dakota towards daybreak, with any activity weakening as it moves east-southeast through the day. A better chance of storms arrive late this evening into the Sunday night hours, mainly near and south of I-90, though this won't make it near the TAF sites until either the very end or just after this period. With that timing uncertainty, left out mention of -TSRA at KFSD and KSUX. A second area of storms to watch will be anything that could drop southward from northern South Dakota and move towards KHON. Did add a PROB30 group there for this potential since there was higher confidence this would occur more towards the end of the period as opposed to afterwards. Winds will pick up as we head into the daytime hours Sunday, turning more southeasterly and then southerly with time. Strongest winds will be in south-central South Dakota where winds may occasionally gust to 25-30 kts this afternoon. Winds will slacken somewhat this evening outside of any thunderstorms, though it will still remain breezy to close the period in south-central South Dakota where winds could gust up to 20-25 kts to end the period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JH/Samet DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...Samet  450 FXUS65 KLKN 230914 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 214 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Subtropical moisture will help to fuel afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the middle of next week * Some showers and thunderstorms could produce brief moderate to heavy rain with the main threat of debris flows on recently burned areas * Cooling trend continues today as mid-level moisture and increasing cloud cover continues its northward trajectory && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Sunday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Monsoonal flow continues to bring shower and thunderstorm chances for the Silver State through Wednesday, but changes next week look to deliver drier conditions back to the Great Basin. Models continue to show 20% to 50% chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, but these chances drop to 10% to 30% Tuesday and Wednesday, as High pressure over the southern plains builds west into Arizona. Storm modes through Monday still favor more wet storm modes, but there will still be a chance for a few dry thunderstorms, as storm motion increases. Tuesday and Wednesday as moisture flow becomes restricted the chances for dry thunder will increase as well. Common hazards for storms will include gusty outflow winds up to 50 MPH, ground lightning strikes, and brief heavy rainfall. After Wednesday, models still show that the upper ridge will try and work its way back west and shifting the upper flow back to a WSW direction, thus cutting off moisture. What is interesting is models are now split on what will build in. The ECMWF wants to bring the ridge back over the Colorado River valley which would mean SW flow and warmer temperatures due to thicker heights. The GFS is wanting to also bring the ridge west, but it keep the ridge farther south, and wants to bring the Pacific NW under a longwave troughing setup. This will bring more westerly flow, which would be dry, but it would also be cooler given the lower forecast heights by 30 dM when compared to the EC. So overall confidence remains mixed for the extended, as conditions look dry, but as for winds and temperatures it is uncertain. For now will keep Temperatures in the low 80s to low 90s, overnight lows range into the mid 50s to mid 60s. Winds will be breezy through the weekend and into the new week as winds shift more south to southwest in line with the upper level flow pattern at speeds of 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH possible. Winds look to shift back to the west after Wednesday with higher speeds possible through the following weekend. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence a daily 20% to 50% chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for Nevada through Monday. There is moderate confidence in a 10% to 30% chance for a mix of isolated dry and wet thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. There is moderate confidence in dry conditions returning to the Great Basin Thursday trough Sunday of next week. There is low confidence in the upper pattern after Wednesday as models are split on potential solutions for winds, and temperatures. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Sunday evening. Winds will be out of the south to southwest at 5KT to 15KT with gusts to 25KT possible for all terminals. VCTS will be possible during afternoon and evening hours as monsoonal flow keeps a 20% to 50% chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Southerly flow will keep monsoonal moisture over the region through Wednesday of next week. This moisture will keep a daily 20% to 50% chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for central and northern Nevada. Hazards from storms will include gusty outflow winds up to 50 MPH, Ground lightning strikes, and brief heavy rainfall. High Pressure ridge to the east will begin to impinge on moisture flow by Tuesday and Wednesday dropping storm coverage to isolated and storm chances to 10% to 30% for a mix of wet or dry thunderstorms. High Pressure looks to cut off monsoon flow fully by Thursday and Friday bringing drier conditions. Winds will be out of the south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 MPH possible, after Thursday winds shift to west to southwest with similar speeds through the weekend. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...98 AVIATION...98 FIRE WEATHER...98  559 FXPQ50 PGUM 230917 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 717 PM ChST Sun Aug 23 2026 .Marianas Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows high-end scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Marianas coastal waters. Model guidance suggests combined seas of 7 to 9 ft. && .Discussion... The Marianas is located within an unstable weather pattern due to Typhoon Saudel's (17W) monsoonal tail, cross-equatorial flow, and a col to the east-northeast. Scattered showers today have steadily increased to numerous across coastal waters, which will eventually make its way over the islands before midnight. Gentle to moderate southwesterlies with strong, convective gusts are expected at least through Monday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring and will persist possibly through the rest of the week. There is uncertainty regarding timing and intensity of heavy showers on Monday, so the forecast reflects a 60 percent chance of showers. The previously anticipated wet period starting on Tuesday looks to be delayed a day or two, with flooding and mudslide potential most likely in the latter half of the week. The forecast reflects the slight lull in shower activity midweek before picking back up by the weekend. && .Marine... Combined seas of 7 to 9 ft tonight will increase to 8 to 10 ft tomorrow, so the previously issued Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Monday afternoon. In addition, strong, convective gusts associated with heavy showers will give way to choppy seas. A long-period southwesterly swell from Tropical Depression 19W (located well to the west) will induce hazardous surf after tonight, and allow the high risk of rip currents to remain along west-facing reefs. There is a moderate risk of lightning throughout the week. && .Hydrology... A reinvigorated monsoon trough with a potential embedded tropical disturbance will likely develop in the area and bring periods of heavy rainfall to the Marianas starting midweek. Between Wednesday and Friday, early ensemble guidance suggests 4 to 6 inches with a low probability of up to 10 inches for Guam and Rota, and 3 to 5 inches with a low probability of up to 8 inches for Saipan and Tinian. This situation will continue && .Tropical Systems... Typhoon Saudel (17W) is centered near 22N140E, moving northwest at 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 125 mph near the center, with this intensity persisting through Monday. Saudel is expected to make a slight turn toward the west-northwest with little change in forward speed through Monday as it heads toward Okinawa. Tropical Depression 19W is centered near 14N136E, moving east- northeast at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds remain at 35 mph near the center, with this intensity persisting through Monday, remaining a Tropical Depression. TD 19W is to expected to continue to move into a a favorable environment while pivoting toward departing TY Saudel well to the north-northeast, with some resemblance of a distant Fujiwara Effect. This is expected to help further prime the environment around the Marianas for another enhancement in the monsoon or potentially a weaker tropical disturbance to develop in the area, bringing in another period of heavy rainfall to the region later this week (more details in the Hydrology Section). For more information on Typhoon Saudel (17W), please refer to the Tropical Cyclone Warning from JTWC under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW, and the TC Public Advisory from the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM. For more information on Tropical Depression 19W, please refer to the Tropical Cyclone Warning from JTWC under WMO header WTPN33 PGTW, and the TC Public Advisory from the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ33 PGUM. && .Eastern Micronesia... Pohnpei and Kosrae - short term: The main forecast challenge was determining rainfall coverage/potential through the first 36 hours. Currently, fairly persistent shower activity has been ongoing for the past few hours. However, recent infrared satellite imager shows rapid warming of cloud top temperatures, while visible imager in addition to infrared overcast skies. This is often a "stratification effect" after a prolonged period of heavier showers and thunderstorm occurrence. Thus, it's highly likely that some high cloud-based light rainfall continues from the a modest directional and speed shear environment (based on the Pohnpei sounding and pattern recognition in the numerical forecast guidance). Typically, this "stable bubble" persists for 6 to 10 hours. With this in mind, we do expect increased shower activity to redevelop, and this was reflected in tonight's forecast. The thought of adding "after midnight wording" was strongly considered, for conveying when the best rainfall potential would occur. However, good speed convergence in the low-level streamline analysis, along with recent development south of Kosrae, precluded this decision. Majuro - short term: Majuro too involved a little bit of a tricky forecast tonight and tomorrow. as the best convergence and attendant convective development is south and east of you per satellite imagery. However, short term forecast guidance strongly suggests this backbuilding line of convection will slide north with time, potentially even before midnight. This is supported in the latest satellite imagery as well. Thus we precluded any more specific temporal refinement to the forecast. Extended outlook for all three locations (36 hours to day 7): Forecast guidance and pattern recognition all points to at least scattered shower potential continuing into next weekend, with a few thunderstorms mixed in from time to time. A tropical disturbance/circulation located east of Pohnpei/northeast of Kosrae will not only maintain respectable convergence in the cyclonically- enhanced monsoon flow, but there may be a few periods of locally increased shower coverage and intensity. Marine and surf conditions: A west to southwest primary and secondary swell will continue through the weekend at Pohnpei and Kosrae, with a slight backing of swell direction due to the previously-mentioned cyclonic flow in the monsoon environment, will allow for a southwest and south swell direction to continue at Majuro. This swell regime will continue to be augmented by the persistent cross-equatorial flow/swell pattern. The net result is elevated surf concerns will continue the next several days at Kosrae and Majuro as well. Otherwise, mainly gentle to light winds currently, may become light to gentle from time to time, especially for the latter half of next week. Seas of 5 to 7 feet are anticipated through the forecast period. && .Western Micronesia... As Typhoon Saudel well northwest of the Marianas and Tropical Depression 19W north-northwest of Yap continue to move away from the region, the last pulse of a fresh to strong southwesterly monsoon is expected to bring more patchy showers Yap tonight. While winds are expected to diminish slightly thereafter, a reigniting monsoon surge is still expected to pummel Yap and much of eastern Yap State the next several days, with a peak shower and thunder coverage expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. A tropical ridge anchored just north of the Equator is expected to bring a dry spell to Palau beginning Monday night, which is likely to last for the rest of the week. While moist westerlies are expected to continue at Chuuk for most of the forecast period, the aforementioned tropical ridge will allow Chuuk to fall in between the convectively active pattern hugging 10N and the much quieter sector of the Equator between Indonesia and Kapingamarangi. This will allow patchy showers and some thunderstorms to form at Chuuk for much of the forecast period, followed by a drying trend in the second half of next week as a larger buffer circulation induces more diffusive flow. The aforementioned monsoon pulse and remaining significant southwesterly swells and fresh to strong winds continues to produce sea conditions hazardous to small craft, which are expected to fall below hazardous criteria by sunrise on Monday. In the meantime, combined seas of 5 to 7 feet in Palau waters are expected to taper down a few feet over the next few days as the southwesterly swell diminishes, being slowly replenished by various smaller northerly swells building in. Combined seas of 5 to 7 feet are expected to slowly drop a foot or two toward the next weekend as swells and localized wind waves diminish. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for GUZ001. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST Monday for GUZ001. MP...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for MPZ001>003. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST Monday for MPZ001>003. Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM ChST Monday for PMZ151>154. && $$ Marianas/Hydrology: Mesa East Micronesia: Doll West Micronesia/Tropical: Montvila  554 FXUS65 KABQ 230916 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 316 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 120 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms will decrease in coverage today and Monday, then increase in coverage Tuesday through Thursday, with a risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, and ponding of water on roads. - A risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will develop along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. - Smoke from the Frijoles Fire will continue to impact air quality in the vicinity of the fire this week. - Moderate-to-high heat risk will impact much of central and eastern New Mexico during the first half of the week, then spread to western areas as well during the latter half of the week, as record and near-record high temperatures return each day. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 120 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 With a 597 DAM high pressure system over the state, high temperatures will generally continue to trend upward through Monday, when readings will peak around 5-13 degrees above 1991-2020 averages. Record and near record high temperatures are forecast both days. The NBM, which did a pretty good job on the high temperature forecast for Saturday, predicts a temperature of 105 F for Roswell on Monday, which is the Heat Advisory criteria for the Chavs County plains. Will let the day shift issue the Heat Advisory for Monday if conditions still look supportive of reaching the criteria there. Otherwise, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast to return to western and northern areas today and Monday. High res models depict spottier cells developing on the eastern plains as far south as Highway 60 late in the day. Northeast and east central areas should see an uptick in storm coverage on Monday, when a somewhat moist backdoor front will enter from the northeast, while disturbances in northwest flow aloft clip the northeast corner of the state. Bulk shear (0-6 KM) around 25-40 KT and CAPE up to 1800 J/KG should enable a few strong to severe storms to develop on the northeast and east central plains during the afternoon and evening. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 120 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Models generally depict the center of the ~597 DAM high pressure system aloft varying its position around central and southern NM until Wednesday, when it is forecast to shift over the southwest NM/southeast AZ border through at least Saturday. Disturbances in northwest flow aloft will continue to increase storm coverage over central and eastern areas Tuesday, then over western areas as well Wednesday and Thursday, after moist outflow from storms on the eastern plains pushes its way over western parts of the state. Gulf moisture will increase PWATs over eastern areas to around 1.10" on Tuesday, then around 1.35" on Wednesday, enabling storms to produce locally heavy rainfall with a risk of flash flooding. NBM 90th Percentile QPF indicates a few parts of the northeast plains may accumulate nearly 3 inches of rain Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening, with locally over 1 inch along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and on parts of the east central plains. The increased convection on the eastern plains, and the southwestward migration of the high pressure center aloft, will enable high temperatures on the eastern plains to trend downward during the middle of the week; while remaining a few to several degrees above 30-year averages. Meanwhile, record and near-record high temperatures will persist across central and western parts of the state.Friday and Saturday a downtick in storm coverage and rainfall intensity is forecast with each day as the amplitude of the high pressure system over the southwest NM border decreases and a ridge axis extends westward over north TX. The storm track will also become less active, enabling drier and more zonal flow over northern NM. This will enable temperatures to trend upward again on the eastern plains starting Thursday, and over western areas as well starting Friday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Isolated showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish during the late night hours. Sunday afternoon and evening, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are again expected over northern and western areas, with spottier activity potentially developing as far south as Clovis, Fort Sumner, Clines Corners, Moriarty, and Rio Rancho. Storm motion on Sunday should generally be toward the east around 10-15 KT. A few of the stronger storms will be capable of producing localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 45 KT. Record and near-record high temperatures will make density altitude and important consideration for aviation operations near complex terrain. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 120 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Critically low minimum humidities will be pretty widespread over east central areas again today. Sub-15 percent humidities will then shift mainly over central and northwest areas on Monday. Increasing Gulf moisture on the eastern plains during the first half of the week should spread into western areas well with thunderstorm outflows moving in that direction each evening Tuesday through mid week; including moderately strong easterly gap winds below canyons opening into the central valley. Until modest Gulf moisture pushes into western areas mid-week, the size of wetting footprints west of the Rio Grande will decrease with each day today through Tuesday. This will result in an increasing threat of new fire starts as spotty showers and storms return mainly to the mountains each afternoon, and temperatures reach near-record readings. Otherwise, the main fire weather concern will be gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflow, which will decrease in coverage with each day through Monday, then increase Tuesday through Thursday, before decreasing again end week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 95 63 94 63 / 10 20 5 0 Dulce........................... 89 50 91 51 / 20 20 10 0 Cuba............................ 88 59 90 59 / 20 20 10 5 Gallup.......................... 91 56 90 57 / 30 20 20 0 El Morro........................ 86 56 87 56 / 30 20 20 5 Grants.......................... 89 57 90 59 / 40 20 20 5 Quemado......................... 87 58 88 58 / 30 10 20 5 Magdalena....................... 89 64 90 64 / 20 10 20 5 Datil........................... 85 58 86 59 / 20 10 20 10 Reserve......................... 94 58 95 59 / 10 10 20 0 Glenwood........................ 99 65 100 65 / 10 10 20 0 Chama........................... 83 51 85 52 / 30 20 30 0 Los Alamos...................... 87 62 88 63 / 40 30 20 10 Pecos........................... 88 60 89 59 / 20 20 20 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 84 55 85 55 / 60 20 30 20 Red River....................... 74 48 76 48 / 40 20 40 20 Angel Fire...................... 81 43 82 43 / 20 20 50 20 Taos............................ 88 54 89 55 / 40 20 20 20 Mora............................ 86 55 86 55 / 20 20 50 20 Espanola........................ 94 60 95 62 / 20 30 10 5 Santa Fe........................ 89 63 90 63 / 20 20 5 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 92 61 93 61 / 20 20 5 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 96 69 97 69 / 10 10 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 97 67 97 68 / 10 10 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 98 67 99 67 / 10 10 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 96 68 97 69 / 10 20 5 0 Belen........................... 98 66 99 66 / 10 10 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 98 67 99 68 / 20 20 5 0 Bosque Farms.................... 98 65 99 66 / 10 10 0 0 Corrales........................ 98 67 99 68 / 20 20 5 0 Los Lunas....................... 98 66 98 67 / 10 10 0 0 Placitas........................ 94 66 95 67 / 20 20 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 97 67 98 68 / 20 20 5 0 Socorro......................... 100 70 100 70 / 10 10 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 89 63 90 63 / 20 20 5 0 Tijeras......................... 91 64 92 64 / 10 10 5 0 Edgewood........................ 92 59 93 60 / 20 10 10 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 94 57 95 58 / 20 10 10 5 Clines Corners.................. 89 61 90 61 / 20 10 10 5 Mountainair..................... 92 61 92 61 / 10 10 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 91 61 92 62 / 10 10 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 94 67 96 68 / 10 10 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 86 62 88 63 / 10 10 10 0 Capulin......................... 88 57 87 57 / 40 30 50 50 Raton........................... 91 55 91 55 / 50 30 60 30 Springer........................ 94 56 93 56 / 40 20 30 20 Las Vegas....................... 90 57 90 57 / 20 20 30 20 Clayton......................... 97 65 96 65 / 40 20 30 60 Roy............................. 94 60 93 61 / 20 30 20 40 Conchas......................... 102 67 101 67 / 20 20 5 30 Santa Rosa...................... 98 66 98 65 / 20 20 5 20 Tucumcari....................... 102 69 101 68 / 20 20 5 20 Clovis.......................... 101 71 102 69 / 20 10 5 20 Portales........................ 101 72 103 70 / 10 10 0 10 Fort Sumner..................... 101 70 102 69 / 20 20 0 20 Roswell......................... 103 72 105 72 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 98 67 99 67 / 10 0 5 0 Elk............................. 95 64 97 64 / 10 10 5 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...44  734 FXUS63 KBIS 230923 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 423 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across western and central North Dakota this afternoon and evening. Potential hazards include hail up to the size of ping pong balls, damaging winds up to 70 mph, and brief torrential downpours. - Conditional risk for isolated severe thunderstorms in central and eastern North Dakota Monday afternoon and evening. Potential hazards include large hail up to 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds up to 70 mph. - Temperatures generally favored to remain near average through next week. - Near-critical fire weather conditions could develop in parts of western North Dakota on Monday, and the far southwest on Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 422 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 An upper level ridge axis extends from the Texas Panhandle through western North Dakota early this morning, with a shortwave ejecting off the Northern Rockies preceding a deeper closed low over western Washington. The shortwave will be the main focus for showers and thunderstorms developing in western and central North Dakota later this morning through this evening. A handful of models bring some weaker elevated convection into southwest North Dakota by mid morning, but there is better consensus for an increase in both coverage and intensity beginning in northwest North Dakota early this afternoon and spreading south and eastward through the late afternoon and evening hours. Showers and storms will develop over a boundary layer with a southerly, moisture-rich return flow, although there is some question whether an MCS over southwest South Dakota and northern Nebraska early this morning could impede moisture transport to some extent. That uncertainty aside, diurnal heating should contribute to CAPE increasing as high as 2000 J/kg with deep layer shear forecast to increase from 30 kts in the afternoon to 40 kts in the evening. There are some factors that could dampen the intensity of convection, including mid level lapse rates less than 6 C/km and a capping inversion that boundary layer mixing and cooling aloft from height falls may not be able to fully erode. Nevertheless, recent CAMs have certainly honed in on an outcome that includes a few severe thunderstorms over parts of western and central North Dakota from mid afternoon through this evening. A lack of a well-defined surface boundary and a mixture of shear and deep layer wind vector orientation to the dewpoint/CAPE gradient would seemingly point toward a multicell/cluster storm mode, which fits with CAMs' reflectivity simulations. Confidence in sustained supercellular structure is low, so have limited our most likely maximum hail size forecast to ping pong balls for now. If upscale growth can lead to more organized convection, damaging winds up to 70 mph could emerge as the dominant severe hazard, especially in the evening when 0-3 km shear could increase to 35 kts. Despite low LCLs and 0-1 km shear greater than 10 kts, model hodographs do not appear to be supportive of tornadogenesis. While instantaneous rainfall rates could be quite high with these storms, their forward propagation should limit the risk for localized flooding, with urban areas being a possible exception. Back to the west, the deeper closed low is forecast to eject off the Canadian Rockies this evening. Lee cyclogenesis is already underway from Alberta through central Montana, but the lee trough/cold front is not forecast to reach western North Dakota until later tonight. Models have shown mixed signals on whether strong to severe convection associated with the trough in central/eastern Montana this afternoon and evening will survive into western North Dakota later tonight. More recent guidance has trended to a lower probability of convective maintenance, which may be due in part to the increased probabilities of thunderstorms in North Dakota stabilizing the air mass in between the two convective systems. MUCAPE is actually projected to remain as high as 2000 J/kg through the night in western North Dakota, but model soundings reveal the most-unstable layer to be highly-capped. Depending on the timing of decaying convection, there could be some higher wind gusts sneaking across the Montana border around midnight. A conditional threat for severe storms continues in central and eastern North Dakota on Monday, but confidence in convective initiation is quite low. Even though several forcing mechanisms are forecast to be present, including mid level height falls/ DCVA, low level warm air convergence, and surface convergence along the frontal boundary attendant to the Canadian low, there may not be enough of an alignment of these features to ensure deep moist convection initiates, and there are a number of possible scenarios and combinations thereof being displayed by the suite of CAMs. First, there is potential for elevated morning convection moving across northern North Dakota ahead of the surface front in an area where stronger warm air advection on the mesoscale could overlap with stronger height falls as the Canadian upper low spins over southern Saskatchewan. This may or may not play a role in afternoon convection if it occurs. A capping inversion will almost certainly delay surface-based convection until late afternoon and early evening. Then it becomes a question of whether strong enough forcing will come into alignment for sustained deep moist convection. Despite the low probabilities for convective initiation and coverage, the threat ceiling may be higher than today, with CAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg and deep layer shear closer to 40-50 kts. Unlike today, there is a clear favoring of a discrete storm mode with shear and deep layer wind vectors perpendicular to the surface boundary. Model hodographs are long and mostly straight, but with enough curvature to support splitting supercells. The most likely maximum hail size forecast for Monday has therefore been increased to 2 inches in diameter, with the maximum wind gust forecast remaining at 70 mph on account of forecast DCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. Similar to today, the tornado risk on Monday appears to be low on account of modeled hodograph structure, despite low LCLs and modest low level shear. In non-convective forecast news, today will be seasonably warm and humid with highs mostly in the 80s and dewpoints rising into the mid 50s to mid 60s. It will also be a bit breezy with southeast winds around 15-20 mph. Monday is favored to be the warmest day of the upcoming week for most areas, with widespread highs around 85 to 90. The post-frontal air mass in western North Dakota will become very dry and could feature gusty northwest winds Monday afternoon, which may lead to near- critical fire weather conditions. The southern Canadian low, which will become nearly-stacked Monday night, is forecast to dive southeastward into the Red River Valley on Tuesday. This brings slightly cooler daytime temperatures and stronger northwest winds into the forecast as the surface pressure gradient gets squeezed between the low and high pressure building over Alberta and Saskatchewan. RH could be low enough in the far southwest for another afternoon of near-critical fire weather conditions on Tuesday. The NBM has also increased PoPs for diurnally-driven showers in the northwest cyclonic flow regime Tuesday afternoon, just in the Turtle Mountains area for now but could see that expanding with future forecast updates. The downstream low continues a southeastward trajectory toward the Great Lakes on Wednesday as surface ridging slides into the Northern Plains and the upper level ridge begins to reamplify over the Rockies. A deeper trough digging into the Pacific Northwest on Thursday could push the upper ridge back into the Northern Plains by the end of the week, with ensemble spread on the synoptic pattern increasing thereafter. Ensemble clusters now tend to favor more of a quasi-zonal flow pattern heading into next weekend, which is evident in deterministic guidance. But there is still some support for yet another reemergence of the upper level ridge somewhere between the Rockies and Great Plains. The potential quasi-zonal flow is reflected in the NBM returning daily low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances to the forecast from Friday onward. The temperature outlook for mid to late next week remains close to average, with highs mostly in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows mostly in the 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 422 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase from west to east this morning through this evening. A few storms could be severe, particularly in southwest and south central North Dakota from mid afternoon through early evening. If a storm moves over a terminal, IFR visibility and strong wind gusts can be expected, with large hail and MVFR ceilings possible. A few showers and storms could linger into the overnight hours or re- enter western North Dakota late tonight. Outside of showers and storms, VFR conditions are expected. Southeast winds around 10-20 kts from this morning onward. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hollan AVIATION...Hollan  758 FXUS63 KEAX 230924 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 424 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and slightly less humid today. - Showers and thunderstorms possible to likely late tonight into Monday morning. Locally moderate to heavy rainfall may be possible. - Warmer temperatures (but seasonal) expected to return Tuesday and continue through the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 329 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Northwesterly flow aloft remains entrenched over the region between high amplitude ridging across the Rockies and western CONUS and troughing across the Great Lakes and into Appalachia. At the surface, high pressure remains in place over the region, yielding nearly calm winds with some high clouds streaming north to south overhead. All in all a very pleasant late August day is expected today, with afternoon high temperatures only forecast to reach the lower 80s for most locations. More importantly, good mixing into a dry airmass should allow for dew points to drop to the upper 50s to lower 60s this afternoon, making for quite comfortable humidity levels. Quite a bit of mid to high level cloud cover is likely to move in by late this morning, with some isolated elevated showers possible by this afternoon across eastern KS into far western MO. However, with relatively dry low levels, quite a bit of evaporation is likely. As we head into tonight, a shortwave trough is progged to translate across the Dakotas into Iowa along the northeastern periphery of the upper ridge. Meanwhile, a southeasterly oriented low level jet will develop late tonight into early Monday morning. This will usher in moisture return, with PWATs increasing significantly from this afternoon into late tonight, primarily across eastern KS into western MO. These features should also help generate showers and thunderstorms across the region late tonight into Monday morning, however, CAMs differ considerably with respect to the exact evolution and intensity of these showers and storms. The 06z HRRR is the least excited about any flash flood potential, with total accumulations generally less than half an inch. However, the 06z NAM Nest suggests the potential for pockets of 1-2 (and perhaps more) inches, although the NAM Nest PWATs are significantly higher than other models and seem a bit unrealistic. The 06z RRFS is somewhere between the HRRR and the NAM Nest. All that to say that there does seem to be at least some low end potential for locally moderate to heavy rainfall late tonight into Monday morning, and WPC has maintained the marginal risk for excessive rainfall across eastern KS into far western MO. Convection should dissipate/exit south of the CWA by late Monday morning, with dry conditions expected for the remainder of the day and afternoon high temperatures ranging from the lower 80s across northern MO to the mid 80s elsewhere. As we head into Tuesday and the rest of the week, the western ridge should remain in place, with northwesterly flow aloft continuing over the CWA as troughing remains over Ontario/Quebec and into the NE CONUS. This will result in afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s through the week and occasional low end (20 to 30%) chances for showers/storms as disturbances and vort maxes translate through the northwesterly flow on the northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd at all the TAF sites with the exception of STJ where fog is expected to develop aft 08Z and cont thru 14Z reducing vis to 4SM with ocnl vis reduced to 1/4SM btn 10Z-14Z. Otrw...expect incrg high clouds thru 21Z aft which bkn mid-lvl clouds around 10kft are fcst. A few decaying showers may approach the TAF sites aft 21Z however conf is too low for inclusion in the TAF at this time. Winds thru the TAF pd will be lgt at less than 6kts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMW AVIATION...73  906 FXUS63 KJKL 230928 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 528 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Noticeably cooler and less humid air will arrive behind a cold front to start the new week. - Chances for a few showers and thunderstorms return around midweek. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 520 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Early this morning, an enlongated upper low was centered over sections of the Great Lakes with an upper trough axis southeast into the mid OH Valley and Central to Southern Appalachians to the Carolinas with an upper ridge centered in NM with ridging extending across portions of the western Conus into the Central Conus/Plains. Drier air has been gradually moving into the Lower OH Valley and eastern KY behind a cold front though the drier air has made a bit less progress into the more southern and southeastern locations as a ridge of sfc high pressure builds into the Lower OH valley from the mid and upper MS Valley regions. Rather extensive fog mainly in the valleys has spread into some no valley locations. Some observation sites such as KEKQ, KSME, and KI35 have recently reported dense fog and fog appears on the dense side at some KY Mesonet station locations as well as on a few of the KYTC cameras. With that in mind, have opted to issue an SPS for fog over the next few hours for areas generally south and southeast of the I-64 corridor. Today and tonight, gradual 500 mb height rises are anticipated as the upper low meanders to the eastern Great Lakes and sections of the mid Atlantic states and axis of the upper trough remains east of the Commonwealth. At the same time, the sfc ridge of high pressure will build across the Commonwealth and into sections of the mid OH Valley by late tonight. A dry airmass for this time of year will be ushered into eastern KY with PW per the 00Z HREF expected in the 5th to 20th percentile. This will set the stage for not much in the way of cloud cover today other than diurnally driven cumulus following the lifting and dissipation of the fog through the 9 AM to 10 AM EDT timeframe this morning. Mixing should result in dewpoints dropping a bit below NBM deterministic values. This airmass will also be cooler as well as drier and this should support highs around 5 degrees below normal for the day on Sunday. The pattern should again favor valley fog formation along the rivers, larger creeks, and area lakes tonight. The normally colder locations may drop to as low as 52 or 53 tonight with the drier airmass in place with more in the way of solid mid 50s for valleys where fog forms and ridgetop locations on the order of the upper 50s to near 60. On Monday, 500 mb heights should continue a general upward trend as the axis of the upper trough moves further east of the Lower OH Valley and Appalachians and upper ridging centered in the NM vicinity builds in sections of the Central Conus/Plains and toward the MS Valley. One more shortwaves will be moving around this ridging and near the mid MS Valley area by Monday evening. Highs for Monday should be similar to Sunday with northwest to west northwest flow aloft prevailing. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 450 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 The long term period should begin with an upper low centered over Quebec and an axis of an upper trough south into the mid Atlantic states to the Carolinas to VA while an upper level ridge should be centered over NM and extend into portions of the western Conus as well as the Central to Southern Plains/portions of the Central Conus. Also at that point, another upper level low should be near the Saskatchewan and Manitoba border with an associated trough south into the eastern MT and easter WY border area with the Dakotas. Further west, an upper trough is expected to extend from west of the coast of BC to west of the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a frontal zone should extend from the eastern Carolinas across the Gulf coast states into the Southern Plains on Monday evening while a sfc ridge of high pressure should extend for the Appalachians to the western Great Lakes while a low pressure system should be near the Manitoba and Saskatchewan border with a trailing cold front into the Dakotas with the frontal zone extending into the western Conus. From Monday night to Tuesday night, a weak shortwave moving around the ridging over much of the Rockies and into parts of the Central Conus should move through the OH Valley and Commonwealth but it will be moisture starved with mainly just some passing high clouds. Some height rises at 500 mb are progged during the day on Tuesday, before near neutral height tendencies or some subtle 500 mb height falls are forecast for Tuesday night as troughing remains from eastern Canada into the Northeast Conus/eastern seaboard and the upper ridge remains centered in southern NM thought it is progged to build north through sections of the Rockies. Meanwhile the upper low initially just north of ND should trek gradually into Ontario and near the northern Great Lakes. This leaves northwest to west northwest flow aloft across the Commonwealth and Lower OH Valley into the central to southern Appalachians. During this time, a ridge of sfc high pressure will shift across the Lower to Mid MS Valley and Central Appalachians and become centered in the mid Atlantic states by late Tuesday night. At the same time, additional disturbances moving around the ridging centered in NW should interact with the frontal/baroclinic zone initially south of eastern KY with a sfc wave tracking to near the confluence of the OH and MS Rivers late Tuesday night while further east the boundary lifts into the TN Valley as a warm front and approaches. This may lead to a bit of increase in moisture and some cloud cover at mid and high levels late Tuesday night. Sfc high pressure will remain the dominant feature with a drier airmass, with PW on the order of 20th to 30th percentile if not most of the time lower per LREF, in place will allow for lows in the mid 50s to near 60 on ridges and the development of valley fog along the rivers, larger creeks, and areas lakes both Monday night and Tuesday night. Daytime highs on Tuesday trend closer to normal for late August. Wednesday to Thursday night, a shortwave trough from the mid MS Valley to the Ozarks regions should move east into the Lower OH Valley and parts of the TN Valley and SOutheast as an upper low initially over Ontario and the northern Great Lakes weakens as it moves further east and begins to interact and merge with an upper low/trough centered over the Hudson Bay vicinity. This leaves an upper trough axis from the Hudson and James Bay area south across the Central Great Lakes to the OH and TN Valleys to Southeast by late Thursday night. During this period the upper ridge in the western/southwestern Conus becomes centered further west and southeast to the south of the Four Corners region with the axis of the upper ridge extending into the Southern Plains with another axis north and northeast into MT and Alberta and Saskatchewan that shifts east across WY and eastern MT to Saskatchewan. At the same time, an upper low moves into BC with the trailing trough moving into the Pacific northwest and sections of the interior northwest. Meanwhile as the initial shortwave trough moves across the area at midweek the sfc wave should track over or near eastern KY while the sfc low in the Great Lakes reaches the Northeast and sends an associated cold front across eastern KY Thursday. This will lead to isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm potential over eastern KY that may tend to peak on Thursday near and ahead of a cold front. The consensus of guidance is for a return of near normal temperatures. Friday to Saturday, the upper trough axis is progged to shift east with a broad trough in place from Ontario and Quebec into sections of the eastern Conus. Guidance has a trend of rising 500 mb heights and more of a zonal/westerly flow at that point with upper level ridges centered near Bermuda and the southwest Conus to end the period. This will lead to some initial small chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly on Friday afternoon before rising heights likely suppresses convection on Saturday. Temperatures should remain near normal for late August. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Clearing skies following showers and thunderstorms on Saturday has led to fog formation in many valley locations, especially south of the I-64 corridor. Some of this is dense in spots. There is some uncertainty as to how extensive it will be, with KIOB and KSYM more robustly into the drier post cold front airmass and should not be affected. The fog in the vicinity of the remaining TAF sites specially KJKL and KSJS may lift into those location as the nocturnal inversion deepens after around 08Z and the same may occur for KSME and KLOZ. LAMP guidance had IFR or lower reductions into KJKL for a few hours and briefly for KSJS. Generally included MVFR reductions for a couple of hours at KSME and KLOZ and followed this based on recent satellite trends. Fog should lift and dissipate in most location between 12Z and 14Z, with VFR conditions generally prevailing to end the period. Valley fog may again develop by the 04Z and 06Z timeframe, but this should not affect the TAF sites. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...JP  004 FXUS66 KPDT 230930 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 230 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Upper level high pressure builds back over the region through the midweek with warming temperatures and mostly dry conditions - Breezy winds return Wednesday, with moderate confidence (55-60%) in elevated fire weather conditions developing Wednesday - Near seasonable temperatures and diurnally breezy Cascade Gap winds return Thursday into the weekend && .DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery tonight shows an upper level low moving across western WA, while nighttime satellite and radar imagery shows little activity across the forecast area with only scattered showers/thunderstorms across northeast WA. Winds in the lower elevations have mostly weakened, with breezy conditions still reported through the Cascade gaps, portions of the OR Columbia Basin, and the Blue Mountain foothills. Today through Tuesday: The upper low over western WA will continue to push east through the remainder of today, weakening and becoming an open wave trough during it's transit. On the Backside of the trough, a slight chance (15-25%) of light rain showers will be possible along the WA Cascade crest this morning, but will diminish in the afternoon as the trough pushes into Canada. Breezy winds through the Cascade gaps and portions of the Columbia Basin will remain through the evening hours, as the cross Cascade surface pressure gradient will be slower to weaken. Late Sunday through Tuesday, an upper level ridge will build over the PacNW and Northern Rockies, producing another warming trend that will persist into Wednesday. From the most recent NBM run, 90th percentile max temperatures remain around the mid 90s, with locally upper 90s in the WA Columbia Basin. Otherwise, while conditions are expected to remain mostly dry across the forecast area, there are less than 10% chances of isolated showers/thunderstorms developing across the southern Blues Monday afternoon, and the northern Blues Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday through Saturday: While warming impacts from the upper level ridge is expected to persist into Wednesday, there is good agreement amongst ensemble guidance that upper level troughing in the northeast Pacific will drop closer to the PacNW Wednesday, then push inland during the day Thursday (confidence 55-65%). The approach of the upper trough and an attendant surface low will tighten surface pressure gradients along the Cascade crest, resulting in a return to breezy westerly winds developing Wednesday. Fire weather conditions will become elevated to marginally critical across portions of the Columbia Basin/Gorge and adjacent valleys in the afternoon, as relative humidities will be near critical values (confidence 55-60%). Thursday, ensemble cluster analysis shows the upper trough swinging into southern BC, pushing the upper ridge further east of the region. Near seasonable temperatures will result with a slight increase in relative humidity across the forecast area (confidence 45-55%), while breezy winds persist through the Cascade gaps. Confidence is moderate (45-60%) that fire weather conditions will be elevated, but remain above critical thresholds. Friday into Saturday, ensemble cluster solutions favor upper level troughing continuing to impact the PacNW, though ensemble members are in disagreement on position and strength of the trough. Confidence in forecast details is low- moderate (35-50%) during this period. Lawhorn/82 && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...VFR conditions initiate and maintain through the forecast period. DLS/PDT/ALW will see periods of breezy conditions throughout the forecast period with 15 to 25 knot gusts. ALW is forecasted to improve by 00Z while PDT/DLS will see general breezy winds, though not as strong as prior. This should help keep smoke lifted, but ALW/PSC could see a small chance (5 to 15 percent) of MVFR conditions developing overnight with smoke making its way down to the surface. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 82 48 89 56 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 84 55 92 63 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 86 52 92 56 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 86 56 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 85 52 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 77 50 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 83 45 90 49 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 85 48 93 55 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 87 51 95 56 / 0 0 0 10 DLS 83 58 92 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for WAZ026-522-523. OR...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for ORZ041-044-049-050- 502-503-505>507-509>511. && $$ DISCUSSION...82 AVIATION...95  369 FXUS65 KBOI 230938 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 338 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and slightly cooler Sunday, then several degrees warmer again Monday. - A slight chance of thunderstorms along NV border today south of Twin Falls. && .SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday Night/... A weak cold front has moved through the area overnight, bringing drier air into much of the area. Isolated showers and thunderstorms across the Magic Valley and Boise Mountains this morning but will taper off in a few hours as the front moves east. Isolated thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon across southern Twin Falls County, with gusty outflow winds possible. The ridge will strengthen over the area Monday and Tuesday with slightly warmer temperatures. A pair of weak shortwaves embedded in the southwest flow aloft will bring increased clouds on Monday and Tuesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will generally be confined to the higher terrain Monday afternoon and again on Tuesday afternoon. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/... Dry through the long term. A trough off the Pac NW coast pushes the monsoon moisture east on Wednesday with drier air, breezy conditions and slightly cooler temperatures Thursday through Sunday. Temperatures will around 2-5 degrees above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday through Monday/... Issued 1222 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026 VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue early this morning mainly in SW Idaho. Thunder capable of brief heavy rain and erratic outflows to 25-35 kt. Surface winds outside of storms: Variable 5-15 kt, except W-NW 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt between KONO and KBKE until 12z. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 10-25 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: SE 5-10 kt, becoming W-NW after 10z. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...KA LONG TERM....KA AVIATION.....CH  391 FXUS65 KSLC 230938 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 338 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1013 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026... - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall across most of the region through the weekend. - A Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe thunderstorms is outlooked for Sunday afternoon and evening across much of northern Utah. There is a 10% chance of wind gusts in excess of 70 mph with these thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. && && .AVIATION, Issued 1013 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026... KSLC...Showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist into the overnight hours. Occasional lightning and gusty outflow winds to 30 kts will be possible with storms which pass near the terminal. Away from outflows, winds should be predominantly southerly overnight through Sunday morning, with another chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming into the overnight hours, gradually diminishing with time. Frequent lightning and gusty outflow winds to 30 kts can be expected with stronger storms. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with additional showers and thunderstorms developing across the region after 18Z Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Some weak showers continue across central Utah this morning. This activity will continue to decrease in coverage. Storms will redevelop this afternoon across most of Utah. There exists a slight risk of strong to severe storms across northern Utah this afternoon as storms will be capable of producing large hail and strong winds. These storms will gradually weaken late in the evening and overnight, but persist in weaker form across northern Utah, similar to what has occurred the last couple of nights. More storms will develop once again on Monday, but drier air will start to move into the region so precipitation chances will decrease over the coming days until most of the activity is mostly isolated to the high terrain by midweek. Relative humidity will approach critical levels by midweek with southwesterly winds increasing towards the end of the week which will lead to locally critical fire weather conditions. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Seaman/Kruse AVIATION...Seaman FIRE WEATHER...Mahan For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  496 FXUS61 KRLX 230941 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 541 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update. No significant changes from the last forecast package were made at this time. The only slight difference was that there is less of a chance for precipitation and thunderstorms for today. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A stretch of dry weather settles into the region alongside a brief cool down in temperatures. 2) The next real chance for shower and thunderstorm activity is Thursday associated with a frontal passage. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... In the wake of cold frontal passage this morning northwesterly flow bringing in an abundant of dry air aloft along with surface high pressure building in will provide quiet weather to the area for the rest of today and possibly through midweek. A nice cool down period will commence as well as dew pints only climbing to the 60s during the daytime and 50s during the overnights which will promote dry and cool days through midweek. During the daytime, highs will stay well below seasonable for this time of year and the region will mainly be dry for the most part. Daytime highs will return to around normal after midweek. KEY MESSAGE 2... The next chance for shower or thunderstorm activity will be on Thursday as another broad low pressure system traversing across the Great Lakes bringing unsettled weather to the region. This feature will drop in a cold frontal boundary through the area and will slide through into Friday. It is a little too far out to determine the severe threat, however forecast soundings indicate weak instability and shear so the severe parameters are not impressive as of now. One thing there is an abundant of is moisture and long skinny CAPE along with high DCAPE values and PWATs, therefore the environment might support the threat of flash flooding although after the aforementioned dry spell it would take a lot to cause issues unless we get hit with strong to severe storms which will likely cause heavy downpours. If areas were to get repeatedly hit and exceed flash flood guidance then there could be issues with flood prone areas. We will have to monitor the situation to get a better grasp on the threats, if any, from this main feature for Thursday. A very subtle short wave may bring diurnal chances for shower/storm activity on Friday during the daytime as well as on Saturday as another subtle shortwave crosses the region, however chances remain very low at this time. A weak disturbance is then forecast to impede the area on Sunday keeping low chances for precipitation and/or thunderstorm activity on the table through Sunday. Temperatures will rebound during this time frame for the weekend to about the climatological norm and southwesterly flow will pump moisture back into the region allowing dewpoints getting back to the 70 degree mark or slightly above for the weekend bringing back summertime conditions. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cold frontal passage has taken place. This feature has promoted surface flow and stronger flow right off the surface both enough to deter much fog formation. Some low clouds linger around EKN/CKB which should only last through the morning. Once any lingering CIGs and patchy fog lifts after 13Z, VFR will dominate the rest of this period until tonight when valley fog is expected to develop under calm and clear conditions. Winds should mainly be out of the west-northwest this afternoon with some occasional gusts into the teens. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 08/23/26 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H M M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L M H M M M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H L M H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M L M L M M M H H H H AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR conditions possible in low stratus and fog Monday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JZ AVIATION...JZ  546 FXUS66 KSGX 230943 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 243 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Monsoonal moisture will decrease this weekend, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for the mountains and lower deserts returning for Monday afternoon. Above average high and low temperatures will continue through next week. Widespread moderate to locally major HeatRisk for the coast, valleys, and mountains except near the beaches and for the higher elevations in the mountains, with major to extreme HeatRisk for the lower deserts. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... Today through tomorrow night... A strong ridge remains in place through this weekend, with temperatures remaining around 5 to 10 degrees above the seasonal average for this time of year. There will be some monsoonal moisture passing through the mid levels over the region by later on which may allow for a rogue shower or two to develop over the mountains, although it will likely struggle to develop into a thunderstorm, given the lack of instability and overall flow. The marine layer as of this morning has struggled to form with only patchy ceilings along some of the coastal sites, and this will be the case again for tonight. Be advised of all heat products issued, and be sure to stay hydrated! Monday through Friday... There will be a slightly better influx of monsoonal moisture for Monday through the rest of the week, although the mid-level flow will still not be favorable for afternoon shower and thunderstorm development to be significant. However, there will still be the chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon over the mountains and adjacent deserts, especially by later in the week. It will also remain very hot, with only a slight cooldown on Monday and then gradually increasing towards the middle of the week as the ridge remains stationary and locked in over the desert southwest, translating to the persistence of high temperatures remaining on an average of 5 to 10 degrees above average throughout the rest of the work week. The marine layer will likely have similar results, with struggles to form overnight and likely impacting only the coastal areas for the most part. && .AVIATION... 230935Z...Coast...Patchy low clouds along the immediate San Diego Co coastline will continue to gradually become more widespread for coastal areas until just after sunrise. Moderate confidence on cigs impacting coastal SD between 10-15Z with bases 500-1,000ft MSL. Lowered vis 2-4 SM expected for higher coastal terrain, locally >= 1 SM. Clouds clear over land by 16Z. Similar bases are expected for patchy low clouds late tonight, with highest chances for cigs 12-15Z Mon for southern SD Co including vcnty KSAN. Otherwise...VFR conditions through the TAF period with FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20,000ft MSL expected later today. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Thursday. && .BEACHES... A 4-5 foot southerly swell at 13-15 seconds will move into the area Wednesday and Thursday, leading to elevated surf for the south facing beaches of northern San Diego County and Orange County. Breaking waves of 4 to 6 feet are likely, with the potential for local sets to 8 feet. Surf gradually subsides on Friday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Friday evening for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Orange County Coastal Areas- OrangeCounty Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys- Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Heat Advisory until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for Coachella Valley- San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Stewey AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...CSP  784 FXUS62 KILM 230946 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 546 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible near the coast today. 2) Near-normal temperatures expected through the next seven days with shower and storm chances increasing mid to late next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible near the coast today. A cold front is expected to move through the area during the afternoon as a mid-upper shortwave rounds the base of a developing closed low centered over southern Ontario. This front appears to be favorably timed with the daytime heating cycle to support at least isolated to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially as it interacts with the sea breeze this afternoon. Precipitable water values are coming down considerably from their 2+ inch values of the last few days into the 1.3-1.6" range, which is near to below- normal for this time of year, and this reduction in moisture is primarily found in the middle to upper troposphere. Thus, while low- level moisture is supportive of showers and storms by allowing for moderate to strong instability to develop, there is a significant amount of dry and subsiding air above 700mb which will undoubtedly cause many initial updrafts to struggle, with up to a few or several of the most robust updrafts overcoming the dry air. For those which can grow tall enough and sustain themselves, effective shear values of 25-30kts, DCAPE in the 1200-1400 J/kg range, and a well-mixed subcloud layer present a ripe environment for damaging wind gusts. However, the very dry air aloft will significantly limit the coverage of severe storms, thus resulting in a marginal risk (5% chance) for severe weather today. Given the reduced precipitable water values, very heavy rain rates capable of flash flooding (e.g., 2-4"/hr) are not anticipated, with mainly 1-1.5"/hr rates at the highest supporting ponding of water in typical poor drainage and low-lying problem spots. Storm motions will be mainly east to east-northeast at 15-20 kts, except where strong downdrafts produce an eastward-moving outflow boundary which could carry a storm along faster. KEY MESSAGE 2... Near-normal temperatures expected through the next seven days with shower and storm chances increasing mid to late week. An upper air pattern featuring a strong upper-high anchored over the Southwest and mean troughing over the eastern US will prevail through the period. This pattern will bring a welcomed reprieve from the recent extreme heat, with temperatures returning more to seasonable levels along with and lower humidity. Noticeably drier air and lower PWATs, potentially falling to around the 10th percentile of climatology will advect into the area for Sunday and Monday. Despite a lingering weak boundary and weak disturbances aloft swinging through the area, the dry air should limit rain chances to widely scattered showers and storms at the most, focused mainly around the sea breeze on Sunday and Monday. Moisture and instability will gradually return to more typical levels from Tuesday onward, yielding increased chances of scattered diurnal showers and storms through the remainder of the period. Storm coverage could increase to numerous or widespread at times between Thursday and Saturday as the next cold front approaches the area. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR for coastal terminals this morning with inland terminals slowly breaking out from fog/low stratus. Restrictions may last longest at KLBT where hi-res guidance has low stratus lingering through ~15Z. Have added TEMPOs for inland terminals clearing up through the morning. Timing for afternoon showers/storms at coastal terminals has shifted later slightly reflected in the PROB30, bringing restrictions if any cells move over terminals. Showers/storms may linger later overnight at coastal terminals as a frontal boundary stalls in the area. Inland BR will again be possible, though there's some added uncertainty due to the drier air behind the front. Extended Forecast... Mainly VFR with early morning fog and low stratus possible each morning. Scattered showers and storms will present a threat for transient vis restrictions near the coast through Monday before chances increase for inland terminals from Tuesday onward. && .MARINE... Tonight through Thursday...Marine conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. Expect generally south to southwest winds at 5-15 kts to prevail through the period with seas between 1-3 ft in the 0-20nmi zones and 2-4 ft in the 20-60nmi zones. The biggest marine impact will likely be from periods of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through this week as afternoon and evening storms move over the waters and disturbances aloft help to encourage new storms over the very warm waters. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM KEY MESSAGES...ABW DISCUSSION...ABW/CBL AVIATION...LEW MARINE...ABW  815 FXUS61 KAKQ 230948 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 548 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated full discussion. No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly dry with seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable humidity through Wednesday. Chances for showers and storms return late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 AM EDT Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry with seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable humidity through Wednesday. Chances for showers and storms return late in the week. The vast majority of precip has moved offshore this morning with just some lingering (light) rain on the lower Maryland Eastern Shore. Otherwise, a cold front will gradually slide through the area today. There will be an initial push of drier air this morning, followed by a more substantial push late this afternoon and evening. Today will be dry for most though a very isolated sea breeze shower could develop in the Virginia Beach/Outer Banks vicinity. Have a very thin stripe of 20% PoPs in this area. Regarding temperatures, expecting it to be quite warm due to a modest downsloping effect with highs ranging from the mid 80s W to upper 80s E. Dew points should also drop from W to E and likely into the mid-upper 50s inland, but still in the 60s near the coast. High pressure sets up to our NW Monday and then drifts SE toward the local area Tuesday. Wx wise, similarly benign Monday-Wednesday with seasonably warm conditions and very comfortable humidity/dew points. There is a very low chance of an afternoon shower/storm near the Albemarle Sound Monday afternoon; otherwise, mainly dry. There will be a gradual shift toward another wetter period by the end of the week as broad troughing overspreads the eastern CONUS and the deep-layer flow becomes southwesterly. An accompanying increase in humidity is also expected. At this time, Thursday appears to be the most "active" day with showers and storms likely areawide. Daily convection chances linger, especially across the E/SE, Friday and likely into next weekend. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 550 AM EDT Sunday... Patchy low CIGs and fog should clear after 12-13z. Otherwise, VFR should prevail through today and tonight. Light and variable winds become W 5-10 kt this afternoon and then light tonight. Outlook: Dry and prevailing VFR conditions expected through the early-mid week period. && .MARINE... As of 300 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Benign marine conditions are expected today through much of the week. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail today through much of the week. A trough is pushing across the coast early this morning. There is some northerly flow in vicinity of the Ches. Bay in the wake of showers/tstms, which are now moving well offshore. Otherwise, the wind should gradually become SW 10-15kt over the next few hours. Seas are 2-3ft, with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The wind diminishes to W 5-10kt by this aftn, and a sea-breeze may develop along the coasts of SE VA and NE NC. A weak cold front crosses the coast early Monday with a brief wind shift to NW, before becoming W/SW with speeds remaining less than 10kt. Another weak cold front crosses the coast early Tuesday resulting in a brief wind shift to N ~10kt, before becoming light and variable by Tuesday aftn. High pressure settles off the Southeast coast mid to late week. This will result in S/SE flow by midweek trending to S/SW flow by late week, with wind speeds at or below 15kt. Seas are expected to be 2ft to occasionally 3ft through the week, with 1ft to occasionally 2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.&& $$ DISCUSSION...SW AVIATION...SW MARINE...AJZ  833 FXUS61 KILN 230949 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 549 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across parts of the area. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Some weak mid level energy will rotate through the upper level low situated over the Great Lakes through this afternoon. While temperatures will be seasonably cool with afternoon highs in the 70s, some cold air aloft will allow for some weak destabilization through the afternoon. MLCapes in the 1000-1500 J/KG will likely be enough to produce isolated shower and thunderstorm development, with the best coverage expected along and north of the I-70 corridor, closer to the upper low. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Some patchy river valley fog will lift through mid morning with sct VFR cu developing later this morning and into this afternoon. A weak upper level disturbance moving through the Great Lakes will lead to isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The best chance for these will be along and north of the I-70 corridor. However, chances appear low enough at this point to leave any mention out of the TAFs. Any lingering pcpn will taper off this evening, leaving mostly clear skies overnight. Some river valley fog will be possible again late tonight, mainly affecting KLUK. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGL AVIATION...JGL  822 FXUS63 KDTX 230948 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 548 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy and cooler conditions arrive today with scattered showers through tonight. - Dry weather Monday into Tuesday with a warming trend. The next chance of showers and storms is possible late Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... Low pressure strengthening on the Ontario/Quebec border fuels moderate NW wind across the western Great Lakes today. The wind carries a cooler air mass into the region but one that still has a usable amount of moisture as shown by surface Td holding in the 50s. The boundary layer thermal/moisture profile supports increasing coverage of borderline MVFR/VFR stratocu once the sun applies some surface heating during the morning. These clouds build into a deeper cumulus field and then into scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and early this evening. The Ontario/Quebec low pressure system is nearly stationary tonight which keeps the associated cloud field overhead or nearby to the east of the terminal corridor. Consensus of model guidance favors low end VFR ceiling late tonight and Monday morning. D21/DTW Convection... Low potential for an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Moderate to high for ceiling 5000 feet or less today and tonight. * Low for an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 DISCUSSION... A series of embedded shortwave maxima will dig directly into the central Great Lakes bolstering a closed 560 dam H5 trough through Monday night. Progs show 850mb temperatures bottoming out at +7C which will largely support high temperatures in the lower to upper 70s range the next couple of days, some 3 to 6 degrees below normal. Beefiest of the absolute vorticity maxima will arrive this afternoon with a direct path into the cwa while turning to a negative tilt. Forecast environmental profile shows main limiting factor for today will be very modest midlevel lapse rate structure at 5.5 C/km preceding the absolute vorticity. NWP supports upward vertical motion beginning to deepen after 18z with height falls rapidly pushing to the southeast of Southeast Michigan. Will require a good amount of lift to fight off the subsidence and all signs suggest shower and possible thunderstorm activity being relegated to the far southeast cwa mainly between 21-00z. Guidance looks again underdone. Again, modest lapse rates do not suggest much CAPE density this afternoon and no severe weather is expected. Closed low pushes eastward leading to 1000-500mb geopotential height rises and surface high pressure Monday. Only real item of note will be the potential for early to mid morning rain showers possible for the northern Thumb region/Huron County as good model signal exists for highly cyclonic flow and confluence downwind of Saginaw Bay and Lake Huron. Great day Tuesday for outdoor interests with high around 80 and surface dewpoints in the 50s. High confidence in very favorable weather with upper level confluent flow supporting strong surface ridging. Broad upper level jet streak and associated absolute vorticity wave packet is forecasted to push into the Great Lakes region Wednesday and Thursday. Uncertainty exists on most likely time window for precipitation onset as there will be a dry column preceding the wave. Temperatures are expected to be near late August averages Thursday and Friday. MARINE... Breezy post-frontal northwest flow to persist today and into the better part of tomorrow as cooler air is ushered into the Great Lakes. Sustained winds of 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knotsare expected, the strongest of which will be found across north- central and central Lake Huron where the fetch is more favorable. Some isolated gust potential to low-end gales cannot be ruled out for Lake Huron, but will preclude any Gale headlines given very low confidence to achieve any prolonged period of gales. Otherwise, rain showers and some isolated thunderstorms will be possible today along with a very low chance for a waterspout, most favorable across Lake Huron. High pressure will start to build into the region late tomorrow and will settle over the Great Lakes by Tuesday. Process of this high pressure moving in will start to relax wind speeds and gusts, leading to light winds by Tuesday. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday afternoon for MIZ049. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for LHZ421-441>443. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for LHZ422. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....BT DISCUSSION...CB MARINE.......CB You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  039 FXUS65 KBOU 230955 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 355 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms through Thursday. A risk of a couple severe storms each day. - A few severe storms are expected across the plains again today, with isolated severe winds and hail possible. Best chances should stay east of the urban corridor. - Slightly cooler (but still above) normal temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday. - Gradual drying and hotter temperatures by the end of the week and through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/... Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Showers have persisted through the night across the eastern plains after yesterday's severe storms lasted well into the evening. These should continue to move eastward and completely out of our forecast area right around sunrise this morning. Today is looking to bring similar conditions to what we saw yesterday, with scattered afternoon showers expected to develop across the higher elevations and push eastward across the plains where better low- level moisture and instability will reside. For today, however, the better environment for severe potential is expected to move a little eastward from yesterday, with a slightly lower concern for the urban corridor today. There will still be a nonzero chance for some strong to severe winds, however, as DCAPE is expected to range from 1200-1500 J/kg that will support an elevated wind threat. PWAT values remain elevated today as well (ranging from .8 to 1.5 inches across the lower elevations), that will keep the potential for some localized heavy rainfall with the stronger storms. MLCAPE is expected to be greatest generally east of Denver International Airport, with upwards of 1500-2500 J/kg portrayed in forecast soundings. Shear will remain the limiting factor for more organized convection today, but 0-6 km bulk shear should get up to 30-35 kts, which will be enough to see a few more organized cells. Temperatures are expected to warm into the low to mid 90s before storms start and bring some heat relief. It will be a wash, rinse, and repeat forecast through at least Tuesday, with scattered afternoon showers and storms containing an isolated severe threat. The pattern doesn't change significantly outside of the upper-level ridge flattening out as a shortwave treks across the northern Rockies today and Monday. Temperatures will cool slightly on Tuesday and Wednesday before the ridge rebuilds across the Rockies, and warmer and drier conditions gradually work their way back for next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday/... Issued at 1144 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 While the majority of showers and storms have subsided late tonight, the latest radar scans show a strong storm currently over the Palmer Divide southeast of all Denver TAF sites. While this storm isn't expected to directly impact the TAF sites, there is potential we see a southeasterly outflow make it to the TAF sites in the next few hours. Will continue to monitor and AMD if this is expected to occur. Winds have finally transitioned to a more drainage flow, with a few 20-25 kt gusts currently observed around the KDEN airfield that should gradually diminish over the next hour. We should see drainage winds turn clockwise through the morning, becoming NE for the afternoon before showers and storm chances will increase by 20-22Z. While there is a TEMPO in place for thunderstorms in the TAFs, there is a more likely chance that the airports are impacted by gusty outflows with shifting winds (30-40 kts), with around a 30%-40% chance for storms. While the best timing for impacts is expected to be from 21-24Z, a PROB30 is in place until 2Z as there may be some lingering showers and outflows through then. Some high-res guidance does show a few showers redeveloping between 4Z-6Z, but chances are too low to add to the TAF at this time. Ceilings should remain about the same as Saturday (8,000-9,000 feet AGL at their lowest). && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...9 AVIATION...9  032 FXUS65 KPSR 230955 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 255 AM MST Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, some strong to possibly even severe, are expected this evening across south-central Arizona. - Increasingly less favorable conditions for thunderstorms will develop starting Monday with virtually no chances for rain from Tuesday through the rest of the week. - High temperatures will reach or exceed 110 degrees nearly every day this week and will be near daily records, while morning lows remain unusually warm. - Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect through Saturday with daily Major to Extreme HeatRisk. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Today could shape up to be another somewhat busy monsoon day, but unlike last Wednesday moisture and the amount of instability will be more limited. Atmospheric conditions at the moment are not very conducive for convection due to the limited moisture, but the upper levels are somewhat favorable for development. The subtropical high has shifted far enough to the east (eastern New Mexico/western Texas) to decrease the subsidence inversion. An upper level trough has also moved in along the West Coast placing much of our region within or near the more favorable right entrance region of a weak upper jet. So, despite the overall meager moisture currently in place, other atmospheric ingredients are more favorable and better moisture is expected to advect northward today potentially putting southern and central Arizona back in the game for monsoon storms. Given the anticipated scenario for late this afternoon and evening, we are becoming more confident in our chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Part of this confidence comes from the 06Z HRRR which shows storms developing north of Phoenix and over Pima County late this afternoon with both clusters sending outflows toward the Phoenix metro. With forecast MUCAPEs near 1000 J/kg and CIN falling to below 100 J/kg late this afternoon, any decent outflow collision seems likely to spark off additional storm development. The 06Z HRRR shows this exact progression with storms developing over or near the Phoenix metro early this evening. Additionally, since moisture will be more limited, DCAPEs will be very high (1700-2000 J/kg) supporting strong to locally severe wind gusts. Forecast PoPs have been raised into a 20-30% range, which better matches the latest high- res guidance. Convective chances for Monday are even more uncertain as guidance generally shows at most a 10% chance despite moisture and instability being better than today. However, subsidence will be much stronger on Monday as the subtropical ridge begins to move westward back into our region. We will have to wait until tonight to have a better idea on the storm potential for Monday, but it does seem to be considerably lower than this afternoon/evening. Temperatures today will again be right near record highs with lower desert readings from 110-115 degrees. The increased boundary layer moisture expected for Monday should hold daytime highs down a bit with NBM forecast highs currently between 106-111 degrees, but heat indices will mostly match what are expected today. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecast attention turns away from monsoon storm potential and back toward the extreme heat conditions starting Tuesday. The subtropical high center will continue to shift westward into our region into the middle part of the week with the center likely settling somewhere over southern Arizona from Wednesday through at least Friday or Saturday. Forecast H5 heights are also shown to reach 594-597dm for the latter half of the week which places it just shy of climatological records for late August. NBM temperature guidance remains quite consistent showing highs rising into a 112-116 degree range for the latter half of this week as conditions dry out. Daily temperature records in Phoenix will continue to be in jeopardy through the entire week, but are likely to fall short in Yuma and El Centro. Once the high center moves overhead by Wednesday, rain chances will essentially go to 5% or less. As of now, conditions for any monsoon storm activity do not look good through next weekend. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0910Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: The main aviation concern will be the gusty outflows and potential for reduced visibilities and thunderstorms. Until then easterly winds will continue through the overnight and morning hours shifting out of the west near 19-20Z this afternoon. Another round of activity is expected to develop to the northeastern high terrain and in southern parts of AZ this afternoon and evening. Outflow boundaries will likely develop and push into the metro from the NE and S. KPHX and KIWA will likely be affected by the southern outflow between 04-07Z, while models show KSDL and KDVT affected by the northeastern outflow a little earlier, near 01-05Z tonight. This is reflected in the most recent TAF package but is subject to change in future packages depending on how models handle each outflow accordingly. Chances for direct TS impacts this evening remain at up to 30% chance but enough uncertainty remains that no PROB30 was introduced at this point in time. FEW- SCT mid/high cloud decks will be common throughout the period. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation concerns are expected through the TAF period. KIPL will maintain west winds through the overnight period then going SE'rly by 15Z. TS activity over the Baja spine may send an southwesterly outflow into KIPL by the late afternoon hours, with a less than 20% chance for direct TS impacts. KBLH will swing between south to SW'rly winds, favoring the SW. Otherwise FEW-SCT mid to high cloud decks will be common through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot temperatures will prevail through the entire week with shower thunderstorm chances mainly today and possibly Monday. Strong gusty winds will be possible late this afternoon and evening with any thunderstorms, while chances for wetting rains will remain below 20%. Minimum RHs will improve through Monday with readings of 15-25% today and 20-30% Monday, before dropping back into the teens into the middle part of the week. Temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees above normal, with lower desert highs eclipsing 110 degrees nearly every afternoon. Outside of thunderstorm outflow winds, winds will follow the typical diurnal tendencies with some modest afternoon upslope gustiness. && .CLIMATE... Record highs: Date Phoenix Yuma El Centro ---- ------- ---- --------- Aug 23 114 in 2011 115 in 2011 116 in 1969 Aug 24 115 in 2020 119 in 1985 117 in 1985 Aug 25 113 in 2011 116 in 1962 117 in 1962 Aug 26 117 in 2011 115 in 2020 115 in 1981 Aug 27 114 in 2023 120 in 1981 117 in 1981 Aug 28 117 in 2023 118 in 2023 117 in 2009 Aug 29 116 in 2023 117 in 1954 117 in 2005 && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ530>555-559- 560. CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ562-565>567- 569-570. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kuhlman LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...Lojero/Ryan FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman CLIMATE...18/Kuhlman