430 FXUS66 KMTR 230403 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 903 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 103 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Near to slightly below normal temperatures within the marine layer through the extended forecast - Warm and dry conditions persist above 1000 feet && .UPDATE... Issued at 901 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Generally clear skies persist at present with some high clouds chiefly over the Central Coast. Stratus is expected to develop through the night and will begin to dissipate through Sunday morning. The forecast remains on track. DialH && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 103 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 (This evening through Sunday night) The Bay Area and Central Coast continue to be on the border of upper level troughing across Northern California/the Pacific Northwest. Practically, no major changes to the overall forecast. Ridging influence is more pronounced today with the marine layer compressed to around 1000 feet and less extensive morning stratus coverage. Stratus cover has dissipated everywhere except the San Francisco/San Mateo coastline with clear skies across the rest of the region. This will help temperatures to warm slightly compared to yesterday with interior highs in the upper 70s to 80s. Conditions will be warm above the marine layer/in the higher terrain where highs will peak in the upper 80s to low 90s. Cooler conditions prevail along the coast and SF Bay shoreline with highs in the 60s to low 70s. The Interior Central Coast remains toasty with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s expected across far interior Monterey County. Ridging effects remain pronounced heading into Sunday with the marine layer remaining compressed to around 1000 feet. This will bring a return of patchy stratus along the coast and SF Bay shoreline. Given the compressed nature of the marine layer, stratus should scatter out early again, likely by 10/11AM. Sunday's high temperatures will be comparable to Saturday's with highs in the 80s to low 90s across the interior, 60s to 70s along the coast and SF Bay shoreline, and in the 90s to low 100s across the interior Central Coast. Breezy conditions expected Saturday and Sunday over the marine environment, along the coast, and across favored mountain gaps/passes. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 103 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 (Monday through next Friday) The long term forecast is a rinse and repeat of the short term with upper level ridging and troughing fighting over our area. Troughing becomes more influential Monday and Tuesday with the marine layer deepening to around 1000-1500 ft. This should bring more substantial early morning stratus to the region and will see temperatures cool by about 5-6 degrees (low 80s to low 90s across the interior) while coastal temperatures stay relatively stable. Mid to late week, ridging again becomes more dominant with temperatures warming slightly and the marine layer/stratus coverage compressing. This will keep temperatures near to slightly above normal above the marine layer and near to slightly below normal within it through the extended forecast. Diurnally breezy winds continue each afternoon/evening along the coast, higher elevations, and across mountain gaps/passes. Looking farther out, the GFS and ECMWF continue to show a number of tropical systems developing across the Eastern Pacific. We will be keeping an eye on these systems as they develop to see how they interact with the upper level ridge and if any tropical moisture will extend towards the West Coast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 426 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 It's VFR except for patches of coastal stratus and fog /IFR/ along San Mateo County and Monterey County. Mid and highclouds, including wildfire smoke over the north Central Coast, are moving northeastward over the forecast area. Northerly to northeasterly winds develop over the North Bay tonight and Sunday morning. Coastal stratus and fog /IFR-LIFR/ redevelop tonight and Sunday morning. Vicinity of SFO...VFR prevails until stratus /IFR/ develops 12z Sunday. VFR returns 18z Sunday. West wind 20 to 30 knots until mid evening then decreasing to 8 to 15 knots tonight and Sunday morning. West wind increasing to 15 to 20 knots Sunday afternoon to mid Sunday evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR until stratus /IFR-LIFR/ redevelops late tonight and Sunday morning. Conditions improve to MVFR-VFR late Sunday morning and afternoon. West to northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 901 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Fresh to strong northwesterlies persist into Sunday morning as moderate seas prevail through the weekend. Marine conditions remain hazardous for small craft until Sunday night. Northern outer waters maintain elevated winds into Monday. Expect minor impacts to visibility along the Big Sur coastline due to smoke from the Timber Fire getting trapped south of Point Sur. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  658 FXUS63 KDDC 230408 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1108 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Early morning showers and thunderstorms possible - Isolated storms possible Sunday evening - Highest chance of storms Tuesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Early morning radar shows showers and thunderstorms located across Colorado. The activity should continue to propagate eastward through the overnight hours. This activity may reach across NW KS/WC KS and N KS by the early morning hours. This activity is not expected to be strong or severe. As such, have the highest pops across the northern zones during the morning hours. The CAMs show the potential for additional showers and thunderstorms developing across Colorado Sunday evening. This activity may reach far southwest Kansas during the late evening hours. Again, this activity is not expected to be strong or severe by the time it reaches into western Kansas. Otherwise, highs will continue to remain seasonably hot with values peaking in the 90s. Lows will be in a mix of 60s to 70s. The same weather patttern with diurnal showers and thunderstorms is expected by the models for Monday. Again, far western Kansas stands to see the highest pops, as is this area is in closer proximity to the diurnally developing convection across the high plains. Long range models and their ensemble counterparts shows the mid level ridge sinking southward across the southern Rockies by Tuesday and Wednesday. Diurnally induced storms may ride the edge of this ridge and may propagate once again into western Kansas. Tuesday stands with the highest pops and large areal coverage of storms during the evening hours. A similar weather pattern is forecast by the models Wednesday and possibly Thursday. Otherwise, highs will remain seasonably hot with values in the 90s and lows in the 60s and 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR is expected through TAF pd. Light SE winds are expected through the overnight. Winds will diurnally increase in magnitude after 15Z tomorrow and become gusty. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sugden AVIATION...Sugden  692 FXUS63 KDTX 230409 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1209 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy and cooler conditions arrive Sunday with scattered showers through Sunday night. - Mainly dry weather Monday into Tuesday with a warming trend. The next chance of showers and storms is possible late in the day Wednesday. && .AVIATION... A northwesterly wind and cold advection is supporting lingering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms activity moving across southeast Michigan early tonight. This activity is now east of the terminal corridor. Predominately VFR conditions exists within this environment which should carry through most of the tonight with the exception of possible MVFR conditions developing across PTK/FNT and maybe up to MBS. Gusts to around 20 knots start around 14Z this morning and last through much of the afternoon. Ceilings should remain low VFR with a low probability for scattered showers and possibly some isolated thunder during the afternoon. D21/DTW Convection...Low potential for isolated thunderstorm focused between 20Z and 00Z. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low in thunderstorms this afternoon. * Moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet today. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 DISCUSSION... A cold front passing across the area remains the focus for numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. This is tied to an amplifying upper trough inducing divergence aloft and deep forcing along the frontal zone. This is enough forced ascent to produce high coverage of convection, but instability remains a limiting factor to the severe threat due to relatively cool surface temperatures and slow diurnal recovery in the wake of morning convection and persistent cloud cover. Radar trends over the past hour suggest the forcing is likely outpacing the recovery of instability, indicating a shrinking window for stronger to severe storms. Bulk wind shear of 30 kt remains the favorable parameter for some organized updrafts, and will continue to monitor storm trends as the front works through over the next couple hours. The main threat in any stronger convection remains wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph. Portions of Shiawassee, Livingston, and Washtenaw Counties received 2 to 3 inches of rain this morning, so these areas may also be susceptible to localized ponding/flooding as the line of showers works through. The surface front clears the area by around 6pm with weak instability lagging behind to keep a spottier coverage of showers and possibly a thunderstorm through this evening before forcing clears out. The trough driving the cold front will continue to amplify tonight into Sunday with an anomalously deep closed low developing all the way up to 300mb. Forecast ensemble mean 500mb heights sit about 2 standard deviations below climatology for this system, which stalls just northeast of Georgian Bay into early next week. Its downstream placement will direct a steady feed of drier, cool air into the Great Lakes during this period, sending temperatures well below normal. Highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s will be likely Sunday and Monday. Northwest wind will be breezy to around 25 to 30 mph each day. A strong vort max will dive southward directly across the area Sunday afternoon and evening, inducing higher lapse rates and a diurnal flare-up of shower activity. Soundings show respectable depth to narrow CAPE to allow for a chance of thunderstorms, but severe weather is not expected. Highest coverage of showers is favored target the Thumb where early season lake effect processes begin to come into play. By Monday, precipitation chances drop off and more sun is in store as gradual upper height rises commence. Thicknesses rebound as well, allowing a slight uptick in high temps. A shortwave ridge passes over the region Tuesday into early Wednesday as the upper low slowly exits east and another shortwave trough works across central Canada. The resultant high pressure brings another dry day with a step up in high temps to around 80 degrees. Flow organizes out of the southwest on Wednesday as the upstream wave works into the western Great Lakes. This advects in higher moisture and a chance of showers and storms late in the day. The associated cold front is slated to track through by Thursday morning but additional showers will be possible through the rest of the day as the trough stalls in the vicinity. MARINE... Ongoing passage of a cold front will continue to support a line of showers and thunderstorms that will progress across the Great Lakes for the remainder of the evening hours. Any stronger thunderstorms will be capable of producing localized wind gusts aoa 34 knots. Wind direction will quickly veer from south-southeast to northwest in the wake of the front with cooler air supporting breezy conditions. A prolonged window for these breezy conditions are expected through tomorrow and a greater portion of the day on Monday, with gusts on the order of 20 to 30 knots. A longer fused Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for both wind gust concerns and for building wave heights in and around the Thumb given the sustained northwest flow. Otherwise, there will be a low chance for rain showers across Lake Huron tomorrow afternoon and evening with a very low chance for waterspout development. High pressure then builds in late Monday and settles in on Tuesday, bringing lighter winds to the area. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for LHZ421-441>443. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for LHZ422. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....AA DISCUSSION...TF MARINE.......AM You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  046 FXUS65 KRIW 230411 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1011 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will continue until midnight. Main threats are locally heavy rain, wind gusts around 50 mph, and frequent lightning. Small hail is possible as well. - The chance of showers and storms lingers through much of the week, although today looks the most active. - Temperatures will generally stay about 5 to 10 degrees above normal this upcoming week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 No real changes to the short term forecast. Rain shower activity been near spot on in relation to HiRes data, especially the trusty NAMNest as per usual. Storm activity has been limited to about nothing due to the continued cloud cover depicted on IR. As a result, severe weather is looking less likely for eastern counties after 4PM. However, storm development looks to still occur through 8PM this evening forming a line that will produce some stronger outflows up to 50 mph (50-60%). Otherwise, instability just won't be there for much, if any, hail. No flooding issues with this progressive pattern. Storms again push out of northeastern Idaho into Yellowstone towards sunset for a couple hours towards midnight before exiting into Montana. Time of day and continued cloud cover limit the instability and any stronger storms. More isolated than scattered for Sunday compared to Saturday. Temperatures for Saturday afternoon will be bumped a bit down not taking into account the cloud cover limiting solar radiation, but a bit more sun for Sunday. Long term forecast is what it is, no changes at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The monsoon has once again arrived across the area, I believe this is the third or fourth appearance so far. So far, it has behaved. We do have some light showers across mainly the western half of the area but nothing heavy so far. The main concern in the forecast will be the potential for heavy rain and possible strong thunderstorms today. Right now, in this meteorologists opinion, potential is mixed for if we will see widespread of either. In regards to heavy rain, the main factor will be the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. Dewpoints have been slow to rise so far, but they should this afternoon, rising into the 50s in portions of the Bighorn Basin as well as Johnson and Natrona Counties. Precipitable water values should also be rather high. The GFS, for example, has precipitable water values about 175 to 200 percent of normal. This had been overdone by around 15 to 20 percent the past few events though. Even with this, precipitable water values over 150 percent of normal look fairly likely. There will also be some forcing in the form of a shortwave moving in from the west. This should enhance chances for all areas, so everyone will have a chance. The best chance still looks to be in northwestern Wyoming, generally a 1 in 2 chance, and there is decent model agreement in this. As for severe thunderstorms, there looks to be a decent amount of instability. This is especially so in the favored portions of our area, mainly east of the Bighorn Range in Johnson and Natrona Counties. Lifted indices fall as low as minus 4 to minus 5 with close to 1500 J/kg of surface CAPE here. There is also a decent amount of directional shear in this area. This, plus the ample moisture, may increase the hail threat in this area. We do have a Marginal risk of severe weather in portions of Johnson and Natrona Counties, and this could be expanded westward with the 13Z update. All areas could have a thunderstorm but with less instability and shear most storms would be sub-severe. However, there are some factorsagainst possible hazards. In regards to flooding and thunderstorms, it is cloud cover. Much of the area, especially western Wyoming, is covered by clouds as I write this around midnight. If it stays mostly cloudy for much of the day, this could limit instability somewhat and decrease the chance of stronger thunderstorms. There will likely be some areas that will be sunnier though, especially further east. And there is one more mitigating factor for heavy rain and possible flooding. With the shortwave moving through, there will be some steering flow today. It won't be strong, but most areas will have 15 to 25 knots at 500 millibars which should keep storms moving somewhat. We continue to have a Marginal risk of excessive rainfall, and persistent storms could still cause flooding, but it may decrease the chance somewhat. The shortwave should clear the area by midnight, but some showers will likely linger through the night. As for temperatures, more cloud cover should lower them around 5 to 8 degrees, but it will still be above normal for almost all areas. The forecast from Sunday through much of next week looks fairly similar. We will remain on the edge of the ridge. Some monsoonal moisture will stick around, with precipitable water values remaining above average through much of the period. However, they do look lower than today, so the chance of convection should be somewhat lower. Most guidance favors western Wyoming at this time. However, given the poor performance of the models in regards to timing and placement of the showers and storms, confidence in the details remains low. Temperatures will also cool off somewhat, back down to near to just slightly above normal levels for late August. There continues to be some indications of drier air moving in for the end of next week or next weekend, possibly shutting off the monsoon and bring a period of warm, but not really hot weather for the end of August. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1000 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A line of showers and thunderstorms will continue over the western mountains and move into the central basins by the start of the TAF period. KRIW and KLND have the greatest confidence and have added prob30 groups through 09Z. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will impact KBPI/KPNA through 08Z. Showers are expected to impact KCPR and KRKS from 09Z to 13Z. Skies will clear, becoming SKC by 15Z/16Z. Winds will begin to increase at KCPR around this time, with gusts around 25kt expected through 00Z. Similar winds will develop at KRKS by 18Z, KCOD and KBPI by 19Z and KRIW by 21Z. Confidence has lowered for thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, with KJAC and KRKS having the best chances so far. Showers and thunderstorms could develop in the central basins by 21Z, but do not have high enough confidence in including in the KCOD, KWRL, KLND or KRIW forecasts at this time. Additional showers and thunderstorms look to push into southwestern portions again Sunday evening and could impact KBPI/KPNA and KRKS between 03Z and 06Z Monday. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Lowe DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...LaVoie  149 FXUS65 KSLC 230413 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1013 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .UPDATE...Monsoon moisture across the region continues to fuel showers and thunderstorms late this evening. These are being aided in part by a shortwave trough lifting through the Interior Pacific Northwest, which is allowing sufficient ascent within a mean southwesterly flow to maintain nocturnal convection. With the elevated flow aloft, sufficient deep layer shear allowed for several rounds of strong to severe convection over the north, with a couple of supercells earlier. Although MUCAPE persists, a stable layer near the surface owing to earlier convection is keeping ongoing activity in check. Anticipate this activity to persist into the overnight hours, gradually trending downward with time as instability slowly wanes. && .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall across most of the region through the weekend. - A Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe thunderstorms is outlooked for Sunday afternoon and evening across much of northern Utah. There is a 10% chance of wind gusts in excess of 70 mph with these thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION, Issued 135 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026... Increased moisture across the region will support thunderstorms capable of heavy rainfall rates. With relatively slow storm motions today, already seeing convection anchored on terrain training in locations and producing localized flooding of small streams and dry washes. Will need to continue to monitor central and southern Utah through the evening as rainfall rates in excess of 0.50-0.75 inches per hour have been observed. The most prone locations will be slot canyons, normally dry washes, slick rock areas, areas with poor drainage and of course the numerous recent burn scars across the region. Across northwestern Utah, CAMS suggest the threat of strong to severe microburst winds. One inhibiting factor will be the mid- morning to early afternoon convection that moved across northwestern Utah. This likely stabilized the atmosphere a bit...and additional convective potential may be suppressed for several hours. While earlier runs of the HRRR showed significant wind gusts impacting northwestern Utah and perhaps the Wasatch Front in the 21Z-02Z timeframe, later runs have largely shifted away from this solution. Mesoanalysis correlates a fair amount of inhibition...and guidance suggests this CIN may not be overcome by the end of peak heating. Sunday looks to be a potentially interesting day convection-wise. A weak area of convergence associated with a Pacific trough will shift into northwestern Utah. Mean HREF SBCAPE values will near 1000 J/kg across much of northern Utah by noon to 1 PM. This combined with deep layer shear around 25-30 kts and general synoptic scale lift will support convective development across much of Utah after noon. The most intense convection will likely be across northern Utah. HREF suggests a neighborhood probability of wind gusts in excess of 55 mph around 15-25%, especially near and west of the Great Salt Lake, and 10% or so in excess of 60 mph. The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked this area with a slight risk (level 2/5) for Sunday afternoon and evening including the Wasatch Front. Across central and southern Utah, another day of thunderstorms with the threat of heavy rainfall is expected. Peak rainfall rates in guidance are notably lower than Saturday, correlating well with a net drying trend. That said, the threat of at least isolated flash flooding in the most prone locations will continue Sunday afternoon and evening, especially across central and southern Utah. The Pacific trough will finally shift into the northern High Plains, shifting anylarge scale forcing for convection to the east. Given there wasn't a front to sweep out the low-level moisture in the low desert areas, expect the threat of isolated flash flooding to persist in any areas that develop convection through at least Monday...if not longer. && .AVIATION... KSLC...Showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist into the overnight hours. Occasional lightning and gusty outflow winds to 30 kts will be possible with storms which pass near the terminal. Away from outflows, winds should be predominantly southerly overnight through Sunday morning, with another chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming into the overnight hours, gradually diminishing with time. Frequent lightning and gusty outflow winds to 30 kts can be expected with stronger storms. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with additional showers and thunderstorms developing across the region after 18Z Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER, Issued 135 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026... Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will become more isolated through early Monday, and largely tied to terrain. Any showers and thunderstorms this weekend will have the threat of strong, gusty microburst winds. Over the work-week, valley humidities will fall slowly each day, reaching near critical to critical levels as early as Monday. There is little sign of an additional monsoon surge after this weekend until after the next weekend. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Seaman/Kruse AVIATION...Seaman FIRE WEATHER...Kruse For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  294 FXUS63 KFGF 230417 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1117 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...Synopsis... Northwest flow prevails through the forecast period, with the passage of several shortwaves. A weak system moves into central and southeast North Dakota on Sunday, with low chances for a passing afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Best chances will be further west, however. A better chance for showers and storms will occur late Monday into Tuesday, when a stronger shortwave moves southeast out of Manitoba and into northwest and north central Minnesota. This will bring us a chance for isolated severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Moving into Tuesday, parts of northwest Minnesota could see an additional round of showers as weak shortwave activity continues. H5 ridging over the western CONUS is expected to flatten, thus weakening our northwest flow heading into the second half of next week. Ensemble guidance suggests additional rain chances as we head into Friday and Saturday, but will ultimately depend on the speed and progression of antecedent shortwave activity and shifts in the overall pattern. ...Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Late Monday... There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into the evening as a moderately strong shortwave pushes across the area. Steep low and mid level lapse rates will be in place during peak heating, with a cold front approaching from the northwest. Modeled surface CAPE ranges from 1500 to 2500 J/Kg across various ensembles and deterministic NAM/NAM Nest. Low to mid level shear is marginal, especially further ahead of the cold front. Hodographs, however, are relatively straight and have a degree of consistency in model soundings. If storms are able to form, there should be just enough shear to allow a mention of supercells, with a chance for splitting supercells or hybrid clusters. In a higher impact scenario, supercells form, bringing potential hazards including wind gusts upwards of 75 mph and large hail to the size of golf balls. If atmospheric support shifts more towards clusters, the potential hazards could include wind gusts upwards of 70 mph and hail up to the size of ping pong balls. Alternatively, in a lower end scenario, storms form later in the evening and severe storms become less likely, but could still support elevated hail producing storms during the late evening and overnight. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1117 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Cirrus moving in from the west, with all sites remaining VFR throughout the period. Winds will become light and variable, and can't completely rule out some patchy ground fog. However, not a very strong signal and will not include in the TAFs. Winds will begin to increase out of the southeast for the ND airports during the day tomorrow. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...JR  307 FXUS64 KMRX 230417 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 1217 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1216 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Showers and storms are currently isolated and expected to dissipate shortly after midnight. - Clearing skies in the early morning hours will lead to fog in the morning hours. Fog may be dense in spots. - A cold front will move through the region by morning bringing cooler, drier conditions today and tomorrow. - Rain chances will return by Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1216 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The cold front is currently on our doorstep over Eastern Kentucky and the Cumberland Plateau on the latest analysis. Showers and storms are currently isolated but new activity is popping up in the foothills of the East Tennessee mountains. CAMs and the NBM agree that showers and storms will dissipate by 1 or 2 AM EDT. Confidence is increasing that clouds will clear out before sunrise and fog will likely be an issue this morning. The front will move through tonight bringing cooler temps and lower dew points today and tomorrow. Sunday and Monday dew points will be in the 50s and highs will be in the 80s (Chattanooga area may hit 90-91). Sunday through Tuesday will be dry with high pressure at the surface. The upper level pattern will be about the same with a deep trough on the East Coast and a ridge centered over the Rockies. The NBM has low rain chances Wednesday increasing to 40-60% chances by Thursday. The trough will be centered over the Ohio Valley again by midweek with a shortwave rotating through the pattern on Thursday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 739 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Strong storms in Middle Tennessee and Southeast Kentucky will likely weaken as they move into the region. Some showers will still be possible late this evening as a cold front approaches. Some thunder will be possible but confidence is low. In the early morning hours, some fog development will be possible after the cold front moves through mainly near TRI. There is some uncertainty if the front stalls and clouds linger longer than expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 65 91 67 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 62 87 63 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 87 61 87 62 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 57 82 57 / 10 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...McD AVIATION...McD  330 FXUS64 KMEG 230418 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1118 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1117 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - The Midsouth will experience above normal temperatures through most of the upcoming week. Monday will be the exception, as a weak cold front brings a brief cooldown. . - Shower and thunderstorm chances remain elevated through at least midweek, as the main storm track extends from the central Great Plains to the Midsouth. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1117 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A fairly static upper level pattern will prevail over the CONUS through late week. A large upper level height ridge will be the pattern's most prominent feature, centered near the 4-corners region, to near west TX. The Midsouth will remain near the storm track along the ridge's northeastern periphery. Our thunderstorm chances will be modulated by northern branch shortwaves, tracking southeast from the central and northern Great Plains. While the overall pattern remains static, a brief amplification will occur early in the week, aided by height falls from the Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians. This amplification will coincide with a westward shift of the storm track into the Ozarks on Monday. Concurrently a weak backdoor cold front will bring lower humidity and modest heat relief to the Midsouth. This relief will be short-lived, as western upper ridge expands eastward Monday night, returning storm chances to the Midsouth. This pattern will vary little from Tuesday through Thursday, with highs returning to the low and middle 90s, accompanied by dewpoints in the lower 70s. This combination should keep daytime heat indices just below Heat Advisory criteria, especially where thunderstorms occur. Medium range guidance consensus depicts some deamplification of the upper pattern late in the week, resulting in a transition to more zonal flow aloft. While rain chances edge downward, above normal temperatures will continue. GEFS and ECMWF ensemble-based guidance depict a more eastward expansion of the upper ridge next weekend, resulting in daytime high temperatures warming to the upper 90s by next Sunday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1117 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 TUP will remain on the northern extent of scattered TSRA lifting across north MS through 06z. Otherwise, the main concern overnight will be fog potential. MKL received little if any rainfall on Saturday, but will be under clear skies most of the night. TUP will take longer to clear but may experience a brief fog window closer to sunrise. Sunday should provide relatively quiet aviation weather across the Midsouth, as a drier air filters in from the northeast. TUP TAF retains and AMD NOT SKED due to missing METAR outside of ATCT operational hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1117 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Minimum relative humidity will average 35 to 45 percent on Sunday. Despite the passage of a weak cold front on Monday, humidity will increase slightly. Wetting rainfall chances will return Monday night, with episodes of thunderstorms possible through early Thursday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...PWB  373 FXUS63 KEAX 230420 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1120 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Cooler and drier conditions are expected across the region tonight into Sunday. * Weakening showers may try to build into eastern KS Sunday afternoon leading increasing clouds and perhaps a sprinkle or two. * Spotty showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread east Sunday night into Monday morning. This activity is not expected to be severe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Broad 1025 mb surface high pressure has built south from Canada and is currently centered across the central Dakotas with dew points in the 40s and 50s to the northwest. Drier air will filter into the region this afternoon with high temperatures in the mid 80s. Surface ridge is expected to shift east tonight leading to good radiative conditions. Have forecast lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the region. With the good radiative conditions, could see patchy fog develop in the river valleys and drainage areas, though increasing high clouds from showers and thunderstorms across the Northern Plains may limit potential. Isotropic lift will continue to support the shorts pushing east, though activity will struggle the farther east it goes with limited moisture. Expect the net result to be increasing clouds, and potentially a few sprinkles across eastern KS. Have lowered forecast highs across eastern KS into western MO with increasing clouds. Ridge riding short wave is expected to build south along the Missouri River basin Sunday night. Increasing isentropic lift near the 310K surface may lead to spotty showers and thunderstorms overnight. Mid- level lapse rates are near moist adiabatic so showers should have limited instability to work with, and dry air near the surface should limit precip potential. Warmer, more muggy conditions are expected the first half of next week as the long standing upper ridge expands east. A series of ridge riding short waves building into the Upper Midwest could lead to additional showers and thunderstorms mid-week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd at all the TAF sites with the exception of STJ where fog is expected to develop aft 08Z and cont thru 14Z reducing vis to 4SM with ocnl vis reduced to 1/4SM btn 10Z-14Z. Otrw...expect incrg high clouds thru 21Z aft which bkn mid-lvl clouds around 10kft are fcst. A few decaying showers may approach the TAF sites aft 21Z however conf is too low for inclusion in the TAF at this time. Winds thru the TAF pd will be lgt at less than 6kts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT AVIATION...73  390 FXUS64 KMEG 230421 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 1121 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - The Midsouth will experience above normal temperatures through most of the upcoming week. Monday will be the exception, as a weak cold front brings a brief cooldown. . - Shower and thunderstorm chances remain elevated through at least midweek, as the main storm track extends from the central Great Plains to the Midsouth. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A fairly static upper level pattern will prevail over the CONUS through late week. A large upper level height ridge will be the pattern's most prominent feature, centered near the 4-corners region, to near west TX. The Midsouth will remain near the storm track along the ridge's northeastern periphery. Our thunderstorm chances will be modulated by northern branch shortwaves, tracking southeast from the central and northern Great Plains. While the overall pattern remains static, a brief amplification will occur early in the week, aided by height falls from the Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians. This amplification will coincide with a westward shift of the storm track into the Ozarks on Monday. Concurrently a weak backdoor cold front will bring lower humidity and modest heat relief to the Midsouth. This relief will be short-lived, as western upper ridge expands eastward Monday night, returning storm chances to the Midsouth.This pattern will vary little from Tuesday through Thursday, with highs returning to the low and middle 90s, accompanied by dewpoints in the lower 70s. This combination should keep daytime heat indices just below Heat Advisory criteria, especially where thunderstorms occur. Medium range guidance consensus depicts some deamplification of the upper pattern late in the week, resulting in a transition to more zonal flow aloft. While rain chances edge downward, above normal temperatures will continue. GEFS and ECMWF ensemble-based guidance depict a more eastward expansion of the upper ridge next weekend, resulting in daytime high temperatures warming to the upper 90s by next Sunday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 TUP will remain on the northern extent of scattered TSRA lifting across north MS through 06z. Otherwise, the main concern overnight will be fog potential. MKL received little if any rainfall on Saturday, but will be under clear skies most of the night. TUP will take longer to clear but may experience a brief fog window closer to sunrise. Sunday should provide relatively quiet aviation weather across the Midsouth, as a drier air filters in from the northeast. TUP TAF retains and AMD NOT SKED due to ASOS comms outage and missing METAR outside of ATCT operational hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Minimum relative humidity will average 35 to 45 percent on Sunday. Despite the passage of a weak cold front on Monday, humidity will increase slightly. Wetting rainfall chances will return Monday night, with episodes of thunderstorms possible through early Thursday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...PWB  576 FXUS66 KMTR 230427 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 927 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 103 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Near to slightly below normal temperatures within the marine layer through the extended forecast - Warm and dry conditions persist above 1000 feet && .UPDATE... Issued at 901 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Generally clear skies persist at present with some high clouds chiefly over the Central Coast. Stratus is expected to develop through the night and will begin to dissipate through Sunday morning. The forecast remains on track. DialH && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 103 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 (This evening through Sunday night) The Bay Area and Central Coast continue to be on the border of upper level troughing across Northern California/the Pacific Northwest. Practically, no major changes to the overall forecast. Ridging influence is more pronounced today with the marine layer compressed to around 1000 feet and less extensive morning stratus coverage. Stratus cover has dissipated everywhere except the San Francisco/San Mateo coastline with clear skies across the rest of the region. This will help temperatures to warm slightly compared to yesterday with interior highs in the upper 70s to 80s. Conditions will be warm above the marine layer/in the higher terrain where highs will peak in the upper 80s to low 90s. Cooler conditions prevail along the coast and SF Bay shoreline with highs in the 60s to low 70s. The Interior Central Coast remains toasty with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s expected across far interior Monterey County. Ridging effects remain pronounced heading into Sunday with the marine layer remaining compressed to around 1000 feet. This will bring a return of patchy stratus along the coast and SF Bay shoreline. Given the compressed nature of the marine layer, stratus should scatter out early again, likely by 10/11AM. Sunday's high temperatures will be comparable to Saturday's with highs in the 80s to low 90s across the interior, 60s to 70s along the coast and SF Bay shoreline, and in the 90s to low 100s across the interior Central Coast. Breezy conditions expected Saturday and Sunday over the marine environment, along the coast, and across favored mountain gaps/passes. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 103 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 (Monday through next Friday) The long term forecast is a rinse and repeat of the short term with upper level ridging and troughing fighting over our area. Troughing becomes more influential Monday and Tuesday with the marine layer deepening to around 1000-1500 ft. This should bring more substantial early morning stratus to the region and will see temperatures cool by about 5-6 degrees (low 80s to low 90s across the interior) while coastal temperatures stay relatively stable. Mid to late week, ridging again becomes more dominant with temperatures warming slightly and the marine layer/stratus coverage compressing. This will keep temperatures near to slightly above normal above the marine layer and near to slightly below normal within it through the extended forecast. Diurnally breezy winds continue each afternoon/evening along the coast, higher elevations, and across mountain gaps/passes. Looking farther out, the GFS and ECMWF continue to show a number of tropical systems developing across the Eastern Pacific. We will be keeping an eye on these systems as they develop to see how they interact with the upper level ridge and if any tropical moisture will extend towards the West Coast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 927 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR continues except for patchy coastal stratus and fog /IFR/ along San Mateo County. Mid and high clouds, including wildfire smoke over the north Central Coast, are moving northeastward over the forecast area. Northerly to northeasterly winds develop over the North Bay tonight and Sunday morning. Coastal stratus and fog /IFR-LIFR/ redevelop tonight and Sunday morning. Conditions improve to MVFR-VFR along the coast later in the morning otherwise VFR Sunday. Vicinity of SFO...VFR prevails until stratus /IFR/ develops 12z Sunday. VFR returns 18z Sunday. West wind 8 to 15 knots tonight and Sunday morning. West wind increasing to 15 to 20 knots Sunday afternoon to mid Sunday evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR until stratus /IFR-LIFR/ redevelops late tonight and Sunday morning. Conditions improve to MVFR-VFR late Sunday morning and afternoon. Patchy stratus /IFR/ possible Sunday evening. West to northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 901 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Fresh to strong northwesterlies persist into Sunday morning as moderate seas prevail through the weekend. Marine conditions remain hazardous for small craft until Sunday night. Northern outer waters maintain elevated winds into Monday. Expect minor impacts to visibility along the Big Sur coastline due to smoke from the Timber Fire getting trapped south of Point Sur. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  743 FXUS65 KGJT 230432 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1032 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Monsoonal moisture in place will keep scattered shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast today. - Heavier rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding over burn scars and susceptible terrain. - Temperatures near to around 5 degrees above normal are expected through early next week, followed by a gradual warmup to close to 10 degrees above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1031 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 As the Pacific Northwest trough tracks into Canada, the high centered over the Southern Plains starts to drift back toward the west. As a result, flow aloft shifts from southwesterly to more zonal Sunday, shifting the moisture plume north and east of the region. The best moisture will remain pooled along the Divide, and lingering across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado. Instability will be plentiful, provided morning cloud cover clears early enough. The one thing that will be lacking is upper level support, as the shortwave from today will be well to the east. Instead, orographic forcing will be the primary trigger for afternoon convection, with showers and storms firing off the terrain in the early afternoon. This activity will move off the terrain and over adjacent valleys through the afternoon and evening, but will likely not be as long- lasting as convection this afternoon. Heavy rain remains a concern, as surface levels remain well saturated and mixing ratios of 5-7 g/kg remain. This will keep flash flood and debris flow concerns for sensitive areas, including recent burn scars. Above normal moisture sticks around through the coming week, as the high gradually shifts back into the Desert Southwest. Forcing will be somewhat lacking, with only the occasional shortwave rotating around the periphery of the high. This means that most afternoons will see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms develop over the higher terrain, with occasional periods of more focus convection coinciding with a passing wave. So long as surface levels remain saturated, heavy rain and flash flooding will remain concerns, particularly for sensitive areas. Additionally, gusty outflow winds and lightning will be daily threats. Temperatures will start around 5 degrees above normal, but will gradually warm through the week under the influence of the high. By the end of the coming workweek, look for highs to be 5-10 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 522 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact terminals through 03z before tapering off. These showers and storms are capable of producing gusty, erratic outflow winds, frequent lightning, and brief heavy rain. They are capable of dropping conditions to MVFR/IFR for brief periods of time. Outside of the influence of showers and storms, winds will be generally light and terrain driven, with high level clouds and VFR conditions prevailing. Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop tomorrow after 18z, starting over the higher terrain then moving into adjacent valleys. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BGB/TGJT AVIATION...TGJT  802 FXUS63 KPAH 230434 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1134 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 20-40% chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. An isolated gusty strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out, with the greatest risk over southeast Missouri. - A 30-40% chance of patchy fog is possible early Sunday morning, especially across portions of western Kentucky and southeast Missouri. - Temperatures and humidity levels will be seasonable next week with a 20-30% chance of daily isolated showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A trailing cold front associated with sfc low pressure over the Great Lakes region is pushing south across the FA. While most of the CAMs have very little development along the boundary this afternoon, the NSSL/RRFS still support some development that is currently ongoing south of STL. Have increased NBM PoPs to a 20-40% chance across the southern counties where dewpoints will remain higher near 70 degrees. This translates to 3000 to 4000 J/kg of SBCAPE with about 35 kts of effective bulk shear. Combined with 1000 J/kg of DCAPE and 8.0 to 8.5 C/km low-level lapse rates, the main concern will be damaging winds where SPC has a D1 marginal. Overall, expecting coverage to be sparse at best, but the probability is the greatest over southeast Missouri. For tonight, a sfc ridge of high pressure begins to build south from Manitoba as a broad upper-level trough settles over the Ohio Valley with northwest flow. Clear skies will allow for the boundary layer to decouple, with a 30-40% chance of patchy fog. The greatest coverage is favored south of the Ohio River where the crossover temperature will be higher. Otherwise, the FA will be between a western 597 dm ridge over the southwest CONUS and a trough in the northeast that will send a series of shortwaves downstream through the week. Rain chances are pretty sporadic at a 20-30% chance as the timing is highly variable. Not seeing a strong signal for severe weather, but may need to keep an eye on Wednesday when a warm front lifts north. The heat and humidity will remain at seasonable levels for the latter half of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Fog potential tonight looks a little tricky since models don't seem to be picking up on the signal that much, but last night's set up being very similar to tonight and climo, lends itself to at least patchy fog development at CGI, MVN, and PAH. Aside from the fog potential tonight, winds should be mainly calm overnight with clear skies. Tomorrow winds will be out of the northwest at around 5-7 kts. High cloud cover increases tomorrow through the day and into the evening. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...HICKFORD  881 FXUS63 KOAX 230437 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1137 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool temperatures and cloudy skies today with highs in the 70s expected. Light rain is likely (50-60%) across portions of eastern Nebraska - less rain in the far east and across western Iowa. - Another round of showers and thunderstorms likely early Monday morning with drying in the afternoon. - Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances continue next week, with high temperatures generally in the mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Sunday and Monday A weak surface high remains in place across the Central and Northern Plains early this morning. Winds are light and there is a thin band of cirrus streaming across the area. With time this morning, winds will slowly veer to the south, but they may actually go calm at number of locations. While patchy fog in low lying areas is still possible near sunrise, there are a couple factors working against it. There is a slightly drier boundary layer after good mixing on Saturday and light northerly winds, plus being another day removed from rainfall across far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Also, mid-high clouds look to expand across the area between 4-7 AM CT, which would put a lid on the radiative cooling. Stepping upward in the atmosphere, ridging over the Intermountain West leaves the local area in a northwest flow pattern both in the short term and beyond as the pattern looks to remain fairly stubborn over the next several days. There is a healthy fetch of moisture off to our west as well with a 1.25+" PWAT contour extending from west Texas to the Canadian border across the High Plains. There has also been expansive convection across the higher terrain overnight. Showers with embedded thunder are expected to walk across western and central Nebraska this morning. Instability and deep layer shear are minimal across the area this morning, so even thunder might be hard to come by across eastern Nebraska. Nonetheless, light showers are expected today along with more mid-level cloud cover. This will keep today's temperatures cooler. It's sort of a rinse and repeat pattern on Monday with convection wrapping around the ridge to our west and working across the area. Convective initiation looks likely upstream in SD aided by pronounced 925-850mb WAA between 1am-10am Monday. MUCAPE is also a little better, ~500-1000 J/Kg, across northeast NE during this time with values diminishing south and east. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out on Monday - especially near the SD/NE border. Tuesday and Beyond As previous discussions have mentioned, the northwest flow pattern will remain in place through the work week with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms - generally weak in nature. It is really tough to pin down precip timing and amounts in patterns such as these. The forcing for ascent is hard to track with not much run-to-run continuity in the model guidance, and the forcing is often weak. While shortwaves embedded in the flow have the potential to kick of showers, they are hard to diagnosis beyond 24 hours. Nonetheless, we will have several more chances to add to our hot start in terms of August precipitation: Omaha - 5.37" (+2.08) Lincoln - 4.57" (+2.31) Norfolk - 5.12" (+2.55) Looking at 500mb heights from the WPC cluster analysis (EPS/GEFS/CMCE) as we head toward the end of August, we still maintain positive height anomalies across most of the central U.S. Thus, no big cool downs appear to be on the horizon, although the ridge axis might shift 1-2 states to the west. That'd likely mean better chances for dry weather past Day 7. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Light north winds will slowly veer overnight and become southernly by late tomorrow morning. Medium to high confidence in VFR conditions through the period. There could be patchy fog across eastern NE early in the morning. Although with the drier airmass that moved in today and advancing high clouds in the morning, fog should be limited. A few passing light showers are expected during the day tomorrow. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CLF AVIATION...CLF  875 FXUS64 KTSA 230437 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1137 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1137 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Temperatures above normal with continued periods of high heat stress will continue through week. The possible exception being around active thunderstorm activity. - Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through Monday, bringing areas of locally heavy rain and strong gusty winds, but most areas will see only minimal rainfall. - Areas of localized fire weather concerns will persist. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Sunday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Much of the current night looks to be on the calmer side compared to the last couple of nights, with any overnight shower/storm development confined to parts of southeast Oklahoma in the vicinity of weak low level warm advection. Given the expected lack of much in the way of overnight storm development and corresponding residual cloud cover during the day, warmer conditions are likely on deck for a good chunk of the area compared to Saturday. That being said, some potential for an afternoon increase in cloud cover across parts of northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, along with low shower/storm chances, will exist, creating a gradient in high temperatures across the area. The NBM high temperatures capture expectations well and will be left alone. Dew point trends are low confidence at this point, with a pocket of higher /mid 70s/ values expected to set up across a portion of east central into northeast Oklahoma and lower values on either side. An initial starting point of the short-term blended guidance through mid morning with a transition to the NBM guidance looks good for the moment. Highest confidence in the aforementioned temperatures and dew points to reach heat advisory criteria heat indices is roughly along and south of I-40, with moderate confidence as far north as Creek/Tulsa/southern Rogers counties. A Heat Advisory will be issued for this portion of eastern Oklahoma as well as the Arkansas River Valley areas in west central Arkansas. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Sunday night into early Monday continues to appear more active than the current night. Low shower and thunderstorm chances will hang on during the evening hours across parts of far northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, but much greater coverage remains likely after midnight into the daylight hours Monday morning. A disturbance will move through the area on the eastern periphery of the upper level high centered to the west, with development beginning across parts of northeast Oklahoma before extending southeastward across Arkansas before dawn Monday. Some of the recent CAMs keep isolated to shower potential farther west in the area into Monday afternoon. Will not adjust the NBM POPs for this just yet but the trend will need to be monitored and potentially adjusted for. Assuming this westward and delayed trend does not occur, high temperatures across southeast Oklahoma will push 105 in some locations Monday afternoon. A front will move through the area during the day Tuesday, with its progression determining where the hotter temperatures setup and how cool northern parts of the area get. With current expectations, areas south of I-40 will again push 105, with highs across the northern half of the area /only/ in the mid and upper 90s. Heat headlines will be needed in parts of the area both Monday and Tuesday. From mid to late in the upcoming week, the basic weather pattern remains similar, with the upper level ridge centered to the west leading to periods of low shower and thunderstorm chances for some and a corresponding brief period of cooler temperatures. Temperatures on average should be above normal, save for the lucky locations and days with rain and residual cloud cover during the day. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Ongoing cloud cover will continue to move south/southeast and clear TAF sites early evening as a surface frontal boundary pushes into southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas. Mostly clear conditions continue into the early morning hours Sunday before scattered/broken high clouds spread back into the CWA for the day. There is potential for a few mid clouds Sunday as well for southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Winds through the period remain between northeast and southeast across the TAF sites. VFR conditions should persist through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 73 96 76 99 / 0 10 50 10 FSM 74 99 76 98 / 20 10 30 30 MLC 75 102 79 105 / 20 0 10 10 BVO 68 94 70 97 / 0 20 50 10 FYV 69 95 71 92 / 10 20 50 40 BYV 69 91 69 88 / 10 20 60 40 MKO 72 97 76 100 / 10 10 40 10 MIO 69 92 70 93 / 0 20 60 30 F10 72 99 76 103 / 10 0 20 10 HHW 75 100 78 103 / 20 0 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053-060- 061-064>067-070-071-073>075-176-272. AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ129-219-220. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...20  857 FXUS66 KPQR 230436 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 936 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure moving over the area will send a weak cold front through the area tonight. Expect near average daytime highs through the week. Ridging builds back into the area early next week, increasing temperatures back into the mid to upper 80s across the interior lowlands. && .DISCUSSION...Tonight through Friday...An upper level trough will continue to progress northeast tonight, sending a weak cold front through the area. As the low moves further inland, zonal flow aloft will develop on Sunday. Zonal flow will maintain seasonal temperatures across the forecast area. Looking ahead through the early next week, ensemble clusters favor ridging over the central CONUS which will spread into the PacNW. As the ridge builds over the area, warmer temperature are expected to return Monday and Tuesday. There remains some uncertainly as to how warm the start of next week will be as the 10th-90th percentiles for daytime highs range from the mid 80s to low 90s for the interior lowlands on Monday and Tuesday. Clusters favor another trough influencing the region by mid-week but exact timing and upper level pattern are uncertain but onshore flow and seasonable or below average temperatures would be favored. When looking at Wednesday and Thursday, the 10th-90th percentiles range from the low 70s to low 80s. There is also no clear signal for any precipitation associated with the mid week trough. approximately 15-25% of members show very light rain possible during the Thursday-Friday timeframe but nothing significant at this time. /42-19 && .AVIATION...06Z TAFs...An upper-level low continues to slowly move north/northeast tonight. Current observations have VFR conditions inland with VFR to IFR conditions along the coast. Overall flight conditions are expected to lower through the next few hours, with IFR/LIFR conditions along the coast and MVFR conditions for all inland locations. Flight conditions expected to improve starting around 18Z-20Z Sunday, with VFR conditions expected for inland locations and IFR/MVFR conditions along the coast, with brief periods of VFR possible from 18Z Sunday through 02Z Monday. South/southwest winds will continue through at least 17Z-19Z Sunday, afterwards expect northerly winds across the airspace. Northerly gusts approaching 25 kt expected along the coast starting around 18Z Sunday and will persist through the remainder of the TAF period. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions will lower towards MVFR over the next few hours. Southerly winds expected to persist through around 18Z-20Z Sunday, with northerly winds returning afterwards. VFR conditions are also expected to return around the same time period. These conditions expected to persist through the remainder of the TAF period. /42 && .MARINE...South to southwest winds continue through tonight as a low pressure system moves over the northeast Pacific. High pressure and northerly winds return by Sunday, with a 40-70% chance for northerly wind gusts up to 25 kt in the evening and continuing into Monday. Seas of 4-6 ft persist through the period. /42 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  953 FXUS65 KPIH 230439 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1039 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms return to all of southern Idaho. Thunderstorms continue through the next seven days for many locations in southern Idaho. - Red Flag Warnings in place for scattered thunderstorms today for all of Central Idaho Dispatch area, Southern Idaho Dispatch area, and portions of the Eastern Idaho Dispatch area. - After record heat the past two days, clouds and precipitation will cool afternoon highs significantly today, then continue a weak overall cooling trend through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 124 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A ridge of high pressure over the southwest combined with an upper low off the Pacific coast will support the flow of monsoon moisture into Southeast Idaho over the next several days in southwest flow aloft. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will become more widespread again this afternoon and evening as an embedded shortwave works through. The Storm Prediction Center has included almost the entirety of the CWA in a Marginal Risk of severe weather today. The storm environment becomes more favorable heading into the afternoon through mid-evening hours, with models indicating 0-6km shear increasing to 40 to 50 knots across portions of the CWA. The threat of gusty winds increases as well, with RRFS DCAPE values ranging around 1000 to 1400 J/kg. Thunderstorms will be capable of outflows ranging 50 to 60 mph. Otherwise, moderate to heavy rain will be possible with storms with models indicating precipitable water ranging 0.70" to 1.4" today. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will remain fairly weak today. Temperatures today will run 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday's record temperatures. The main upper level low pressure system will continue to track northward into Canada throughout the day Sunday, resulting in less widespread storm coverage on Sunday with activity more limited to the higher terrain. On the other hand, winds will increase outside of storms with gusts across the Snake River Plain, Arco Desert, and portions of the central mountains ranging 30 to 40 mph. The suppression of the ridge will mean a continuation of gradually cooling temperatures through Monday before the ridge attempts to rebound. During this time, temperatures will briefly warm by several degrees, but ensembles show the next PacNW low reaching the coast and flattening the ridge again come mid-week which will take our temperatures back into seasonable territory or just below for the latter half of next week. Southwest flow aloft will keep enough monsoon moisture lifting northward to support daily chances of showers and thunderstorms throughout next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1033 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 It will be another round of TSRA developing 23/18Z-23/20Z for all airdromes except one. KSUN appears to dry out to SKC before convection can get going, and, at least for now, does not look to be hampered by TSRA in the afternoon and evening. For the rest, SPC has put them in an area of slight chance of severe TSRA, so have outflow wind of 35G50KT for all of them during the strength of afternoon heating. If the PROB30 group had to be broken up due to increasing clouds, then the evening should not be as strong, perhaps 30G45KT instead. CIGs stay above FL100 except in TSRA, but even then stays VFR. VSBYs could also be reduce to marginal VFR, but only in a TSRA. Final thing is the wind. KSUN, KIDA are both in areas where gusty wind has been expected, so they have some SW wind of 15G25KT likely in the afternoon. KPIH is a close second with sustained at 15KT. The other two KDIJ and KBYI should peak out at around 10KT. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 124 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 We will continue with a RED FLAG WARNING for all zones EXCEPT 413. There will be a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms, with the main impact being storms potentially producing gusts 35-60 mph, if not a bit higher with some storms across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley (410, 425). There is a 30-50% chance of wetting rains across central and eastern Idaho through this evening. Morning cloud cover had muddied the picture a bit on where higher coverage will be, but not enough to make any changes to the warning layout. With this monsoon push, we are expecting pockets of showers across our area overnight, with a 10% chance or less of seeing an overnight thunderstorm or two. As low pressure scoots northeast tomorrow, we are expecting an increase in winds outside of any thunderstorms. Gusts of 25-40 mph are expected across portions of the Snake Plain (410), Lava Beds in the Magic Valley (425), the central mountains (422, 475, 476), and along the Montana border in Zone 411. There is some question on how much dry air works in across those areas. Right now, the best chance of seeing much lower humidity is across the central mountains. We will likely see pockets of critical fire weather conditions, but at the moment will hold off on any RED FLAG WARNINGS for that combination. Elsewhere we are going to be borderline for thunderstorm coverage across Zones 427 and 413. We are also expecting similar issues, in addition to the overall wind, across Zone 411. Again, with borderline conditions (coverage should be much lower than today), we will not go with any warnings for thunderstorms. Outflow gust potential for 35+ mph is lower tomorrow (10-40%) vs today (40-90%). The chance of wetting rain is lower overall 15-30% and more spotty as well. Expect more of the same on Monday. The footprint for showers and storms increases, at least based on current trends, but thunderstorm potential is still borderline for more widespread coverage. Monsoon moisture looks to stick around most of this week, potentially decreasing toward the end of it. We will to watch trends over the next few days to see how long it may be with us and how much precipitation we could see. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && $$ DISCUSSION...Cropp AVIATION...Messick FIRE WEATHER...Keyes  972 FXUS63 KUNR 230439 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1039 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Upper ridge will dominate the weather through next week. - Thunderstorm areal coverage will increase tonight and hang about into next week, although in the hit or miss variety. - Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms may occur during the later afternoon/evening hours today through Tuesday. - Temperatures will average 4-8F above normal. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday) Issued at 1236 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 18z surface analysis had weak high over the northern Plains into the middle MO river valley. Weak frontal boundary behind it from central MT into eastern CO. Patch of low stratus over western NE has been pushed northwestward on southeasterly winds along boundary leading to upper 50s Td/s across parts of northeastern WY. Water vapour matinee depicted shortwave ridge over the CWA, but shortwave trough hot on it's heels over eastern ID/western WY. Lift ahead of wave leading to some weak radar returns over northeastern WY, but nothing below 12kft per KGCC observation. Main concern this forecast is convection. Later this afternoon/evening, around 1500J/kg MLCAPE pools along frontal boundary with weak MLCIN. Shortwave overtops, which will assist convective initiation. Perhaps 20-30kt effective shear will be present, enough to support isolated strong/severe thunderstorms where SPC Day 1 Marginal in place. Storms will slowly move eastward across the CWA tonight, but in weaker fashion over western SD given less favorable environment. Temperatures will be near guidance. Sunday, aforementioned frontal boundary ends up over the western SD plains, influenced by tonight's convection/outflow. The further east it goes, the less the effect on the CWA. Right now, HREF suggests it'll settle over the eastern quarter of the CWA. 2KJ/kg CAPE pools along it with 30-40kts of 0-6km shear sufficient for strong/severe thunderstorms. Some CAM guidance suggests a supercell or two dropping south along the UNR/ABR border area late in the day. Temperatures will be near guidance. For Monday/Tuesday, disturbances rotating around the upper ridge will support additional chances for strong/severe convection given forecast shear/buoyancy profiles. The rest of next week looks less active as upper ridge/height rises more dominant. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued At 1038 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Showers are moving eastward out of WY and over the Black Hills onto the SD plains. These should move out by sunrise. A front will pass through northeastern WY early Sunday afternoon, shifting to north winds. Assuming appreciable surface heating, TS conditions are possible across most of the area, primarily over the Black Hills and east. Confidence in timing/placement is still low. Regardless, have introduced a PROB30 for KRAP for Sunday evening. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Helgeson AVIATION...Schweigert  097 FXUS64 KEPZ 230444 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1044 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1026 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain on today. Thunderstorm chances will diminish this weekend as upper level high pressure builds closer to the area. - Above normal temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas through the week ahead. Lowland highs will range upper 90s to 105, which will approach daily records. - Slight chances of thunderstorms return Thursday into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1044 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The saying goes, big bubble no trouble. But for us the next week will be dominated by a big bubble of high pressure aloft which will give the lowlands of our area high temperatures at or above 100F. The first part of the week looks the hottest with high temperatures running 10 to 12 degrees above average. We will be near record high temperatures Monday through Wednesday. The reason for this late summer heat is a big area of upper level high pressure that will wander around New Mexico and Arizona this week into the start of next week. The upper level ridge will really limit convection each afternoon, with only the mountains having a slight chance for thunderstorms each day through this weekend. The upper level ridge will be centered over southern New Mexico for Monday through Wednesday and that is when we will see our hottest temperatures. We may need a heat advisory for some of the lowlands of Texas some of those days. For Thursday and Friday, the upper level ridge will drift ever so slightly to the west into eastern Arizona, which will allow a degree or two to come off of our afternoon high temperatures and may give the mountains a little better chance for rain. It remains to be seen how for into the lowlands thunderstorms may be able to creep for the end of the week. For next weekend, we will see more of the same as the upper level ridge drifts back toward southern New Mexico. Rain chances will be limited in area mountains next weekend and high temperatures will again creep to near record levels. We will likely start September out on a hot note, as the upper level ridge shows no signs of moving off or breaking down. So the triple digit heat will continue in the lowlands which is a little unusual for the month of September. For the climate record of El Paso, a little less than 2% of our 100 degree days have ever occurred in September. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 957 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 We will have VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. There will be a slight chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms in area mountains, which will have no impact on our TAF sites. The one exception might be some thunderstorm outflow winds which can travel dozens and dozens of miles from their parent thunderstorm. Otherwise our winds will be light tonight, then like today, we will have some low end gusty winds for a few hours Sunday afternoon. Those low end gusty winds will drop off a little before sunset. Our ceilings tonight and Sunday will be unlimited. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1026 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Fire weather concerns should remain low through the coming week. Temperatures will remain quite warm, near record levels for much of this time. This combined with low humidities will allow fuels to dry out some, but no significant winds are expected through the forecast period. A few mountain thunderstorms are possible this afternoon but then the chances shrink Sunday through Wednesday. Upper high drifting off to the west Thursday and beyond will bring slight chances of thunderstorms back to the mountain zones.Min RH: Lowlands 10-15% through Wednesday, increasing to 12-18% Thursday and Friday. Gila/Black Range Mountains...15-25% through Friday. Sacramento/Capitan Mountains...20-35% through Friday. Vent rates good-very good through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 101 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 68 97 67 99 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 70 100 68 101 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 70 99 72 101 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 53 76 55 78 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 71 98 71 100 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 65 93 64 95 / 10 0 0 0 Deming 71 101 69 102 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 72 100 70 100 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 77 101 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 70 101 70 102 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 74 104 74 106 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 69 95 69 97 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 73 101 72 102 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 73 100 71 101 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 75 101 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 70 99 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 71 102 70 104 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 73 101 72 102 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 70 99 68 100 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 58 89 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 57 87 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 56 86 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 61 90 62 92 / 10 0 0 10 Hillsboro 70 98 69 99 / 10 0 0 0 Spaceport 69 99 68 101 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 59 91 58 92 / 10 0 0 10 Hurley 67 96 65 97 / 10 0 0 0 Cliff 67 100 68 101 / 10 0 0 0 Mule Creek 65 97 65 97 / 10 0 0 0 Faywood 69 95 68 97 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 71 101 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 70 99 69 99 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 69 99 67 99 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 67 94 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...15-Brice  401 FXUS63 KUNR 230451 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1051 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Upper ridge will dominate the weather through next week. - Thunderstorm areal coverage will increase tonight and hang about into next week, although in the hit or miss variety. - Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms may occur during the later afternoon/evening hours through Tuesday. - Temperatures will average 4-8F above normal. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1051 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Updated PoPs and QPF overnight to better capture latest model guidance and current radar trends. Models continue to show significant disagreement on placement of potential thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening, and have been changing from run to run as well. Have taken a broad-brush approach with low PoPs for now, favoring the Black Hills and most of our South Dakota plains (especially north of I-90 and then east of the Badlands). We'll continue to try to refine this over the next 36 hours. Parameters continue to support the potential for a couple severe thunderstorms with damaging wind and large hail risks. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday) Issued at 1236 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 18z surface analysis had weak high over the northern Plains into the middle MO river valley. Weak frontal boundary behind it from central MT into eastern CO. Patch of low stratus over western NE has been pushed northwestward on southeasterly winds along boundary leading to upper 50s Td/s across parts of northeastern WY. Water vapour matinee depicted shortwave ridge over the CWA, but shortwave trough hot on it's heels over eastern ID/western WY. Lift ahead of wave leading to some weak radar returns over northeastern WY, but nothing below 12kft per KGCC observation. Main concern this forecast is convection. Later this afternoon/evening, around 1500J/kg MLCAPE pools along frontal boundary with weak MLCIN. Shortwave overtops, which will assist convective initiation. Perhaps 20-30kt effective shear will be present, enough to support isolated strong/severe thunderstorms where SPC Day 1 Marginal in place. Storms will slowly move eastward across the CWA tonight, but in weaker fashion over western SD given less favorable environment. Temperatures will be near guidance. Sunday, aforementioned frontal boundary ends up over the western SD plains, influenced by tonight's convection/outflow. The further east it goes, the less the effect on the CWA. Right now, HREF suggests it'll settle over the eastern quarter of the CWA. 2KJ/kg CAPE pools along it with 30-40kts of 0-6km shear sufficient for strong/severe thunderstorms. Some CAM guidance suggests a supercell or two dropping south along the UNR/ABR border area late in the day. Temperatures will be near guidance. For Monday/Tuesday, disturbances rotating around the upper ridge will support additional chances for strong/severe convection given forecast shear/buoyancy profiles. The rest of next week looks less active as upper ridge/height rises more dominant. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued At 1038 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Showers are moving eastward out of WY and over the Black Hills onto the SD plains. These should move out by sunrise. A front will pass through northeastern WY early Sunday afternoon, shifting to north winds. Assuming appreciable surface heating, TS conditions are possible across most of the area, primarily over the Black Hills and east. Confidence in timing/placement is still low. Regardless, have introduced a PROB30 for KRAP for Sunday evening. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ UPDATE...KSmith DISCUSSION...Helgeson AVIATION...Schweigert  622 FXUS63 KMKX 230457 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1157 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - An isolated waterspout or two are possible over Lake Michigan through tonight. - Dry and pleasant conditions into the beginning of next week. - Storm chances return Tuesday evening into Wednesday along with warmer and more humid conditions. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1157 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Tonight through Monday: Mostly clear skies, light winds, and decreasing dewpoints are expected tonight as high pressure builds in, with lows a few degrees below normal in the low 50s most places. Quiet weather will then continue Sunday and Monday as the high gradually builds overhead. A drier and cooler airmass is expected through this period with temperatures a couple to a few degrees below normal along with lower humidity. Mostly clear skies will persist Sunday and Monday, aside from some late morning and afternoon cumulus each day. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 1157 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Tuesday through Saturday: Surface low pressure is expected to pass by to the north Tuesday night into Wednesday, along with an associated cold front and shortwave. This system will likely bring shower and storm chances back to southern Wisconsin Tue evening into Wednesday. There is disagreement among models with the exact timing of the stronger forcing, which would impact the strength of any storms given typical diurnal instability trends. Models are showing a moderate amount of shear with this system, so a few stronger storms aren't out of the question if the timing is right to tap some higher instability during the daytime hours. Warmer temps and higher dewpoints are expected to return during this time period as well under breezy southerly winds ahead of the approaching low. Mainly dry weather is expected Thursday and Friday under surface high pressure. Could see a few diurnal showers though as a few weak impulses move through the the persistent cyclonic flow aloft. A stronger shortwave is then anticipated arrive Sat per latest models, bringing shower/storm chances back to southern Wisconsin. Near normal temperatures are likely for the second half of the week. DDV && .AVIATION... Issued 1157 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Mostly clear skies and light winds are expected tonight into early Sunday as high pressure builds in. Scattered VFR cumulus and modest northwest winds are likely late Sunday morning into the afternoon. Could see a lake breeze make an attempt at moving inland tomorrow afternoon if offshore wind ease a bit. Light winds and mostly clear skies will then return for Sunday evening and overnight. DDV && .MARINE... Issued 1157 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Isolated showers and storms will remain possible over the lake tonight into at least early Sunday, with a small chance for an isolated waterspout through tonight. Otherwise, breezy north to northwest winds will persist into Sunday between deepening low pressure around 29.7 inches over the eastern Great Lakes and high pressure of 30.2 inches building in from the northwest. Winds will eventually become lighter by mid-day Monday, persisting into Tuesday as the high moves overhead. Breezy southerly winds will then develop later Tuesday into Wednesday as the high shifts eastward ahead of an approaching low. DDV && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  686 FXUS64 KLUB 230459 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1159 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1156 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Record breaking high temperatures possible Sunday and Monday. - Stronger breezes and low RH values will bring elevated fire danger on Sunday and Monday afternoon. - Storm chances return each day next week beginning Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Showers continue to dissipate across the region. These showers are expected to clear the area in the next couple of hours. Current radar imagery shows the outflow that pushed southwest across the forecast area through the evening has mostly exited the region. Once the showers clear and the outflow exits to forecast area, the rest of the overnight period will be quiet. Light winds will vary between south to southwest through the overnight hours. Lows remain unseasonably warm in the 70s across the region. Some localized areas may only reach as low as the lower 80s. Sunday will be another hot one. On the upper levels, ridging will remain over the forecast area as an upper trough dominates eastern CONUS. A secondary upper trough will swing onshore over the Pacific Northwest. Thickness increases below the the ridging will increase temperatures a couple degrees compared to today. Temperatures on the Caprock will reach up to 106 degrees. Temperatures off the Caprock will range from 106 up to 113 degrees. Tying the record daily high temperature will be possible at both KLBB and KCDS. The previous record for KLBB is 106 degrees set in 2024. The forecast high for Lubbock is 105 degrees. The previous record at KCDS is 111 degrees set in 2024 with a forecast high of 110 degrees. Due to the hot temperatures, a Heat Advisory is in effect Sunday from noon until 8 PM for the eastern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains. At the same time, an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect Sunday from noon until 8 PM for the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains. South to southwesterly winds are expected to pick up during the afternoon hours around 15 to 20 mph. With RH values reaching as low as 15 percent across the region and breezy winds, elevated fire conditions are expected across the entire forecast area. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect for the far southern Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and Rolling Plains from noon until 8 PM. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Sadly, the hot temperatures are here to stay for the first part of the long term forecast. Not much change to the upper pattern for Monday with the upper ridging remaining over the region. Thickness increases will increase high temperatures a couple more degrees for Monday. Areas on the Caprock can expect high temperatures around 105 degrees. Areas off the Caprock can expect highs up to 113 degrees. Highs on Monday could possibly break the daily record high at both KLBB and KCDS. The upper ridging will begin to retreat southwest on Tuesday bringing northwesterly flow aloft. A couple embedded shortwaves will bring thunderstorm chances each late afternoon and evening everyday through the weekend. With the retreat of the upper ridging, we will see a cool down in high temperatures, however not by much as highs through the week remain forecasted in the upper 90s to triple digits. By the weekend, models indicate the upper ridging will begin to flatten and expand east back over the region possibly warming up temperatures to Heat Advisory (105-109 degrees) level again. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR is expected through the TAF period. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the southern Texas Panhandle Sunday afternoon and evening but chances of affecting a TAF site are low at the moment. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ024>026- 030>032-035>038-041>044. Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ024>026- 031-032. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...01