197 FXUS66 KLOX 230303 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 803 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS...22/716 PM. Minimal changes expected through the weekend with above normal temperatures. Patchy night through morning low clouds and fog will be confined to coastal areas, mainly north of Point Conception. Additional warming is expected next week with periods of extreme heat in some areas, especially Tuesday through Friday. && .SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)...22/802 PM. ***UPDATE*** Hot to very hot conditions are expected to persist through late this coming week as a strong ridge of high pressure remains centered near the Four-corners area. The upper ridge will continue to expand over southern California from the southeast, along with weakening onshore pressure gradients. Temperatures today were similar to yesterday's highs, give or take a degree or two, in most locations. This trend is likely to continue through Sunday and Monday, before additional warming occurs Tuesday through Friday. At the same time, warm overnight lows will start the days out warm, adding to the heat discomfort. A Heat Advisory is in effect for LA and Ventura Counties except for the higher mountains of Ventura and the Antelope Valley. The Advisory also covers the Santa Barbara Mountains and Cuyama Valley, and the South Coast. The timing is from 10 AM Sunday morning through 10 AM Tuesday. Following that, there is an Extreme Heat Watch in effect for the same areas, through Friday evening. Gusty onshore winds will affect the interior passes and canyons, especially Soledad Canyon into the Antelope Valley, with gusty Sundowners across SW Santa Barbara County. Gusts in these areas will generally peak at 25 to 35 mph, although with isolated stronger gusts near Gaviota and Refugio. Otherwise, winds in most locations will be relatively light, under 20 mph. Stronger Sundowners will be possible starting Monday evening. As for low clouds, for the past couple of night to morning periods they have been limited to the southern Central Coast, of western Santa Barbara county. This trend is likely to continue, although models keep showing low clouds over coastal sections of LA County, which could verify at times. ***From Previous Discussion*** The heat is on. It looks to be a very hot week across southwest California, especially Tuesday and beyond as high pressure aloft builds in from the east onshore gradients start to relax and possibly even turn lightly offshore. Temperatures today are similar or slightly cooler than the last couple days but models are indicating weakening onshore flow this week, especially starting Tuesday while at the same time heights and thicknesses rise due to high pressure building from the heat. At that point models indicate the potential for light to locally moderate offshore flow. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with this part of the equation which is why the heat hazards turn into Extreme Heat Watches Tuesday through Friday. If gradients end up being more onshore then most areas will likely just remain under heat advisories. Current projections indicate around a 30% chance of 110 or higher in the San Fernando Valley and also a 40% chance of 100 or higher in Downtown LA. For areas north of Pt Conception, temps will be warming there as well but the hottest temps will hold off until Tue or Wed. .LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...22/219 PM. The extreme heat is expected to continue through the week peaking late in the week. As high pressure continues to build the warm air will start to push north along the Central Coast and will likely need to be issuing additional heat advisories and/or warnings for some or all of the area by Wednesday. Projections show around a 10% chance of 100 degrees in SLO Wed-Fri and a50-70% chance of highs of 105-110 across interior SLO. In addition, hot Sundowners will be peaking Tuesday and Wednesday evenings across the Santa Ynez Range with strong gusts and temperatures in the 90s and lower 100s likely. Farther south the heat will just get worse later next week with some coastal valleys as high as 113 by Friday and a 20-40% chance of highs 100 or higher in Downtown LA and Camarillo. Some cooling expected to start next Saturday but still at least 6-12 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION...23/0036Z. At 2249Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 2100 feet with a temperature of 30 C. High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KSBA, KPMD, KWJF, KBUR, KVNY, KOXR, KCMA, & KSMO. There is a 15% chc of LIFR/IFR CIGs at KLAX, KLGB, KSBP between 23/10Z-16Z. KLAX...High confidence in VFR TAF. However, there is a 15% chance of LIFR/IFR CIGs 23/10Z-16Z. No significant east wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF. No wind issues expected. && .MARINE...22/631 PM. Moderate to high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds (20-30 knots) across the Outer Waters at least through Monday night, most prevalent south and west of Point Sal. This may need to be extended through mid week and expanded to all waters again later in the week. SCA winds gusts are also expected across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast this afternoon and evening, then there is a moderate chance for more widespread wind gusts reaching 25 knots during the afternoon and evening hours starting Tuesday and likely continuing through the week. Gusts of 20-25 knots should reach the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel each afternoon/evening starting Monday and continuing through the week. Moderate chances of SCA level winds reaching the eastern portion of the channel by mid-week. Otherwise widespread SCA conds are not likely for the inner waters south of Point Conception. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Sunday to 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through Friday evening for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 AM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT Sunday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 4 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Ciliberti AVIATION...Black MARINE...Sirard/DB SYNOPSIS...MW/Ciliberti weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  430 FXUS64 KOUN 230308 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1008 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1005 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Excessive heat continues through the weekend and into next week. - Isolated to scattered rain/storms are possible most days with the primary hazard being strong winds. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A ~599 dam mid-level ridge remains centered near the Four Corners region in the southwestern United States. This has placed Oklahoma and north Texas on the northeast periphery of ridge with weak northwest flow aloft. Synoptic-scale ascent from a wave embedded in the flow allowed for a complex of showers and thunderstorms to move through eastern parts of the area this morning. Isolated showers/storms may develop along the remnant outflow boundary from this morning's storms across southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas late this afternoon into the evening. Damaging wind gusts from downbursts will be the primary hazard with any thunderstorms given the large amount of downdraft CAPE (~1500 J/kg) and the hot temperatures. The chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight is lower than previous nights as the mid-level ridge is forecast to expand slightly to the east. This keeps the more appreciable synoptic- scale ascent to our northeast. Mahale && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Hotter weather returns on Sunday with the eastward expansion of the mid-level ridge in tandem with a strengthening low-level thermal ridge. Dangerous heat is expected across much of the area with a Heat Advisory in effect for all locations except northern Oklahoma. Parts of the Heat Advisory may need to be upgraded to Extreme Heat Warning across the south with the potential for air temperatures and/or heat indices >110 deg F. The very hot temperatures across western Oklahoma and western north Texas will result in afternoon relative humidity values near or below 20%, which will result in elevated fire weather conditions. With the ongoing drought and very dry fuels, the total fire environment (weather + fuels) will be susceptible to initial attack fires. As a result, a Fire Danger Statement may be needed for tomorrow. In addition, a few high-based thunderstorms may develop across the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles tomorrow afternoon. Some of this activity may move into western Oklahoma with a dry lightning threat. A weak cold front/wind shift is forecast to advance southward on Monday as a shortwave trough passes by to the northeast. Veered low-level flow ahead of the front will result in very hot, record-breaking temperatures (i.e., "pre-frontal torch") with the potential for temperatures approaching 115 deg F across southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas. In addition, with the veered low-level flow, at least elevated fire weather conditions are expected Monday afternoon with the potential for locally near- critical fire weather conditions. The primary mitigating factor for a higher-end fire weather risk is wind speeds should be somewhat limited. Nevertheless, a Fire Danger Statement will likely be needed on Monday. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 This boundary may linger into Tuesday with slightly cooler temperatures across the northern half of the area, but still baking across the south with temperatures once again approaching 110 degrees. The ridge looks to push off to the southwest a bit as well which allows better northwest flow to develop and slightly cooler temperatures (still above normal). Although a few afternoon showers/storms not out of the question Tuesdayafternoon, a better upper shortwave drops southeast out of the High Plains as we go into Tuesday night and Wednesday. This should bring, at least to northwest Oklahoma, a better chance of rain as storms move off the higher terrain and slide southeast into Oklahoma. Scattered activity may continue through the end of the week as the northwest flow regime continues to bring some minor shortwaves overhead. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1005 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Mid/High clouds with VFR ceilings. The storms in western north TX are expected to not affect KSPS after 06Z but will continue to monitor radar trends and add a mention if needed. Otherwise, some models are showing a low chance for isolated/scattered showers/storms in parts of OK starting Sunday evening. Outflow boundary(ies) will cause shifting/gusty winds. Otherwise winds will generally be east to southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 75 103 80 107 / 10 10 10 0 Hobart OK 76 109 82 110 / 20 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 79 109 83 111 / 20 0 0 0 Gage OK 71 105 73 103 / 0 0 10 0 Ponca City OK 72 95 73 100 / 10 10 10 0 Durant OK 76 107 81 109 / 20 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ009>012- 014>019-021>048-050>052. TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...10 SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...25  465 FXUS66 KSEW 230309 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 803 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS...An upper low offshore will move inland tonight and weaken through Sunday. Upper ridging builds into the Pacific Northwest Monday and Tuesday for warmer, dry conditions. An upper low will approach the region midweek for increasing onshore flow and light precipitation chances. Onshore flow into late week will continue cooler conditions into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Thunderstorm activity has largely quieted over western Washington this evening, mostly over the Strait and moving northward. This northward progression has also allowed the inherited Red Flag Warning to expire earlier this evening. Inherited forecast remains on track and no updates needed this evening. For additional forecast details, please refer to the Previous Discussion section below. 18 From Previous Discussion...An upper low continues to meander towards the Western Washington coast this afternoon. A complicated pattern exists with onshore flow at the surface and continued southerly flow aloft. Scattered thunderstorms occurred this morning, especially over the Cascades. Increasing daytime heating and further destabilization has resulted in additional thunderstorms this afternoon over the North Cascades. In addition, we continue to monitor the threat for localized severe wind gusts (>58 MPH) this afternoon and evening with any stronger thunderstorm over the North Cascades. Elsewhere, POPs remain lower, but a few isolated showers and thunderstorm may exist King County northwards. The upper low will move inland and transition to an upper trough tonight into Sunday. Lingering light rain will continue at times over the Cascades into Sunday with widespread cloud cover into Sunday as well. Temperatures will remain near to slightly cooler than normal through the weekend due to the presence of the upper troughing. An upper ridge slowly builds over the Pacific Northwest beginning Sunday night resulting in drier, warmer conditions on Monday. Surface flow also becomes more northerly, with a slight east component Monday night. This may allow for smoke transport from ongoing wildfires in BC and Eastern Washington towards Western Washington early next week, which continues to be monitored. Otherwise, highs will warm into the mid 70s to mid 80s on Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...The upper ridge remains over the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday, with the ridge axis focused over the Intermountain West. For this reason, Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week, with highs across the interior in the 80s and low 90s in the Cascade Valleys, resulting in areas of Moderate HeatRisk. An upper low will approach the Pacific Northwest offshore by Wednesday leading to increasing onshore flow and cooler conditions. Precipitation chances also increase Wednesday into Thursday associated with this system, and will need to monitor thunder potential over the Cascades (although current probabilities are less than 10%). Ensembles suggest the influence of troughing continues into Friday with onshore flow and temperatures a few degrees below normal. JD && .AVIATION... An upper level trough will continue to move north with south flow aloft transitioning to west/northwest as it moves east. VFR decks remain this evening across most terminals, with lower stratus along the coast/just offshore. Additionally, thunderstorms continue to remain in the Strait of Juan de Fuca area as they slowly move north into Victoria this evening. Brief gusty winds and lightning are the main threats with this area of convection. The threat of thunder will diminish after sunset, although showers will continue through tonight across the north interior (affecting BLI). Stratus from the coast will fill into the interior overnight, reaching Puget Sound terminals by around 12Z. Model guidance holds onto the stratus past 18Z (likely 19-21Z). Probabilities favor MVFR for most, with the coast holding onto a 40-60% chance of IFR/LIFR conditions. Wind gusts will diminish tonight for most except the north interior out of the southwest around 5 kt. Winds Sunday will shift from the southwest in the morning, to the northwest in the afternoon/evening 4-8 kt. KSEA...VFR through the evening with decks remaining overhead. MVFR stratus remains likely to arrive around 12Z, and remain through 19- 21Z. Southwest winds 4-8 kt tonight becoming northwest Sunday afternoon. HPR && .MARINE... A few areas of showers and thunderstorms will continue in the Strait of Juan de Fuca area through dusk, with showers continuing in the north interior tonight, and breezy winds diminishing by Sunday morning. The low will track inland on Sunday. High pressure will rebuild over area waters on Sunday and remain over the area through Tuesday. A weak frontal system will move across the waters midweek. Then high pressure will rebuild over the waters late in the week. Diurnal westerlies in the Strait of Juan de Fuca evening the next few days. Seas 3 to 5 feet through the majority of next week. 29/HPR && .FIRE WEATHER... Showers and thunderstorms wrapping up this evening. As the upper level low passes through tonight and early Sunday, showers and isolated showers may still be possible, but the probabilities for thunderstorms will be significantly reduced and as such may not warrant any additional headlines. Will leave that for overnight shift to evaluate with latest model data. Upper level ridge building in later Sunday. Brief low-level offshore flow possible on Monday as thermal trough builds along the coast before pushing inland overnight into Tuesday. Another upper level trough arriving in the middle of next week increasing the chances for more showers and the potential for thunderstorms. Upper-troughing may linger into Friday. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...None. && $$  294 FXUS66 KMFR 230326 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 826 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...Updated the Aviation and Marine Sections... .AVIATION...23/00Z TAFs...There is patchy coastal VFR. But, a mix of IFR and MVFR marine stratus over the Oregon coast and into the lower Umpqua Valley will thicken again this evening into Sunday morning, with areas of drizzle likely. Improvement to VFR is expected to be more extensive during Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening. A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings is also likely to return to the Umpqua Valley after 08Z, and persist until around 18Z on Sunday morning. Other inland areas will remain VFR through the TAF period, with mostly clear skies. Winds will increase again Sunday afternoon, but will be weaker than in recent days with gusts mainly at 10 to 15 kt. && .MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Saturday, August 22, 2026...Southerly winds will shift to the north and increase Sunday morning as a thermal trough develops along the coast. Gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas will persist through Monday morning. The main belt of stronger winds will push into the outer waters Monday afternoon and evening, with a southerly surge of wind and fog along the inner waters Monday night into Tuesday. Generally light winds and calm seas are then expected through Friday with low pressure persisting over the northeastern Pacific. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 236 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026/ KEY MESSAGES... * Seasonal warmth continues for most areas. * A Red Flag Warning is in place to highlight gusty winds and dry conditions in Klamath, Lake, Modoc, and eastern Siskiyou counties. * Unimpactful weather is expected through the week ahead. Temperatures peak on Monday before returning to seasonal levels near midweek. DISCUSSION...An upper trough is passing to the northeast today, which will help to keep temperatures at seasonal levels. Dry air aloft is keeping precipitation chances out of the forecast. Gusty westerly winds east of the Cascades are lining up with ongoing dry conditions to bring critical fire weather concerns this afternoon and evening. A Red Flag Warning is in place for Klamath, Lake, Modoc, and eastern Siskiyou counties to highlight these conditions. With onshore flow along the coast, marine stratus is is expected to rebuild this evening with occasional drizzle possible. With the trough moving away to the northeast through Sunday, temperatures will rise west of the Cascades. A few clouds may pass over Modoc and southern Lake counties, but nothing is expected underneath them. For the week ahead, generally dry southwest flow will bring continuing warm and dry conditions. A weak upper ridge ridge passes over the area on Monday, bringing temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal for most areas. The Rogue and Klamath River valleys look to be the warmest areas, with highs approaching or reaching 100 degrees. A passing shortwave may bring very slight thunderstorm chances (5-10%) to southeastern Modoc and Lake counties. Temperatures cool slightly on Tuesday as the weak ridge moves eastward. For midweek, an approaching trough looks to pass to the north, which will help to bring temperatures to seasonal norms by Thursday. Elevated winds are possible in the afternoon and evening of Wednesday and Thursday, but current models have trended down from previous runs which reduces of critical fire weather conditions. These winds will be worth watching as the middle of the week approaches. There's some minor divergence for Friday and beyond, generally limited to whether flow aloft will be zonal or southwesterly. Overall, long-term imagery and ensembles indicate unimpactful weather continues through the end of August. -TAD FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 PM PDT Saturday, August 22, 2026...An upper level trough and associated dry cold front will pass through the region today, bringing a period of increased winds and critical fire weather conditions. Model guidance shows 700 mb winds, a good proxy for maximum gusts east of the Cascades, will peak at about 40 mph ahead of the front early this afternoon, then diminish through the evening. To the west of the Cascades, particularly in the Rogue and Shasta valleys, gusty northwest winds will peak this afternoon behind the front, gusting to around 20 mph. The deciding factor for potential critical fire weather today will hinge on humidity. Minimum RH west of the Cascades will be too high, so even though winds will be gusty and may approach critical values, conditions should remain below levels of concern. East of the Cascades, however, daytime minimum humidity will trend lower today than yesterday, dropping into the teens or even single digit percentages. Thus, another day of critical fire weather conditions is expected there. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for areas east of the Cascades this afternoon, for FWZs 284/285/624/625. More typical summer conditions return Sunday and persist into early next week. There are some signals for thunderstorm chances across far eastern 285/625, namely the Warner and Hart mountains, on Monday, but much will depend on how far west the Four Corners High retrogrades behind this trough passage. Otherwise, another trough drops southward from the Gulf of Alaska and lingers off the BC coast through early next week. There will likely be additional shortwaves/troughs to swing through the region early next week, bringing periods of enhanced winds. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ624-625. CA...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ284-285. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ370-376. && $$  388 FXUS64 KOHX 230330 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1030 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1026 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Slightly below normal temperatures with dry conditions expected through Monday. - Low to medium rain and storm chances will return Tuesday through the end of the week with seasonable temperatures in the low-90s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday Night) Issued at 1026 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A cold front has worked its way through Middle TN, and drier air is filtering in behind the front. Calm conditions are expected tonight with just patchy fog to keep an eye on. Confidence in fog is once again highest across the Plateau with any fog that does develop diminishing after sunrise. Upper-level troughing remains in place across the eastern CONUS, and in the wake of the front, temperatures on Sunday will cool a few degrees with high temperatures in the mid to upper-80s with dry conditions. Monday will be similar with highs still in the 80s and dry conditions prevailing. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1026 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 By Tuesday, the aforementioned trough shifts to the east and ridging sets up to the west. For Middle TN, this means northwest flow will persist through the end of the week, opening the door for a few shortwaves to move through the area. These shortwaves and an increase in moisture allows for daily low to medium rain chances to return to the forecast Tuesday through the end of the week. Temperatures will also warm a few degrees, but high temperatures in the low-90s will still be seasonably normal. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A cluster of thunderstorms will impact CSV over the next hour or two, otherwise VFR conditions prevail for all taf sites. A cold front is laid across Middle TN right now that is resulting in a gradual northerly wind shift. Winds will relax below 10 kts in the coming hours with high clouds passing through overnight. Areas of dense fog will be likely at CSV and SRB overnight, burning off after sunrise. Winds will remain northerly through the day Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 64 88 61 87 / 10 0 0 0 Clarksville 63 85 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 60 81 57 82 / 10 0 0 0 Columbia 66 90 63 88 / 10 0 0 0 Cookeville 62 83 59 82 / 10 0 0 0 Jamestown 61 81 58 81 / 10 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 65 88 62 86 / 10 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 65 89 61 87 / 20 0 0 0 Waverly 65 86 62 85 / 10 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Clements LONG TERM....Clements AVIATION.....Baggett  532 FXUS63 KICT 230333 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1033 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lingering showers and thunderstorms will exit southeast KS this afternoon - Additional storm chances, especially at night, tonight into next week - Temperatures remain near or above normal && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 As of 130 PM Saturday afternoon, the amplified midlevel pattern remains across the CONUS with troughing across the east and ridging across the west. This places the central Plains within a northwest midlevel flow regime. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms continue to move southeast with a remnant MCV. Behind this cluster, a wake low has developed across portions of eastern KS, yielding northerly winds at 20-30 kt with gusts near 35 kt. As the afternoon progresses, these showers and storms will depart southeast KS with mostly sunny skies returning area wide. Temperatures will quickly rebound into the 90s. An area of surface high pressure, currently from ND through northern NE, will slide into eastern KS this evening into tonight. This will result in easterly (upslope) low-level flow across much of the central high Plains. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected across eastern CO and WY this evening. Thunderstorms may gradually grow upscale and move east/southeast into the nighttime hours. Considerable uncertainty remains with the the eastern extent these storms will progress. Instability greatly decreases within the area of surface high pressure across eastern KS. In addition, the low/midlevel WAA is quite weak. Combining those two together suggest any storm activity will be on a weakening and decreasing coverage trend upon reaching central/eastern KS. The greatest potential for rainfall late tonight into Sunday morning appears to be along and north of I-70. Transitioning into Sunday, the area of surface high pressure will remain across eastern KS, yielding light easterly winds. Temperatures will also be notably cooler with highs ranging from the mid 80s to the low 90s. The forecast area will remain within a northwest midlevel flow regime into next week, as subtle perturbations eject into Plains on a near-daily occurrence. This will support at least small rain chances almost every night next week. In regards to the temperatures, the core of the midlevel ridge will remain southwest of the forecast area over the next 7 days. This should keep the hottest temperatures southwest of the state with highs generally in the low to mid 90s each afternoon. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions expected over the next 24hrs across much of the area. There could a period of scattered showers and a few storms affecting central Kansas during the morning hours on Sunday. Light easterly winds will switch to the southeast. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BRF AVIATION...CDJ  552 FXUS64 KMAF 230335 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1035 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1034 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Hot temperatures continue through the forecast period with little to no chance of rain. - Drink plenty of fluids and seek shade frequently as heat illnesses due to prolonged exposure to heat may occur. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Upper-level high pressure will remain the dominant feature across west Texas and southeast New Mexico through the remainder of the weekend. A weakness embedded in the ridge may initiate isolated to scattered convection along an outflow boundary to our north over the South Plains later this afternoon. CAMs continue to indicate that a few cells could approach our far northern counties late this afternoon or early this evening, so maintained very low POPs between 10-20% roughly from Gaines to Scurry counties, but most locations should remain hot and dry. Any storm that does develop or make it into the northern Basin will be capable of producing brief strong/erratic gusts and a few lightning strikes. The heat wave otherwise continues with highs this afternoon and Sunday afternoon reaching between 100-106 degrees over much of the region, except for readings in the mid to upper 90s over the higher terrain areas. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the northeast Basin and western Low Rolling Plains through Sunday evening, where afternoon highs range around 105 degrees with early morning lows near 80 degrees. Spend time in air conditioning or in the shade if outdoors, wear loose fitting, light-colored clothing, and drink plenty of water to stay hydrated. Remember to never leave people or pets inside a closed or locked vehicle. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Upper-level high pressure will remain in place across our region through the middle of the week before perhaps retrograding slightly westward over the Desert Southwest by late in the week. Even so, the ridge will continue to extend into southeast New Mexico and west Texas through Friday of next week, so hot temperatures will persist through the extended period. Highs each day will continue to range between 100-106 over much of the region, with the highest readings staying over the northeast Basin/western Low Rolling Plains, along the Pecos River Vally and along the Rio Grande. Overnight lows mostly range in the 70s, except for readings in the 60s over higher elevation areas. Weak shortwave impulses moving over the area within northwest flow aloft on the eastern side of the ridge could at least bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to portions of the area Thursday, but rain chances generally remain 20% or less at this time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in weak return flow, w/a few high clouds. A few high-based cu are anticipated beginning late Sunday morning invof KMAF/KHOB. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 77 104 77 105 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 73 102 74 104 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 76 103 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 74 101 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 70 94 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 72 101 72 103 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 64 95 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 77 102 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 77 101 77 102 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 75 103 75 104 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for Borden-Howard-Mitchell- Scurry. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...99  720 FXUS64 KAMA 230341 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1041 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Summer heat wave continues with impactful temperatures near or above 100 degrees through at least Monday. - Low to medium chance (20-40%) for scattered storms capable of gusty winds across the northwest and central combined Panhandle this afternoon into this evening. - Potential pattern change could provide slightly cooler temperatures and increased rain opportunities next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Latest in-situ observations show decaying complex of storms moving south through the south and rolling plains this evening, with a few more isolated showers in the eastern NM plains. GOES mid level water vapor imagery shows ridging across the Rocky Mountains with a better defined anti-cyclonic circulation center near east central NM. A trough of low pressure is impinging the much broader high pressure from the Pacific Northwest, and the combination of these features is keeping a large fetch of monsoon moisture across the intermountain west and adjacent plains. The latest 00z KAMA sounding continue to indicate well above normal heights for 500mb registering 597dm. However, this is a slight decrease from yesterday's 00z launch which was closer to 599dm, and we expect heights to continue to fall slowly over the next few days as the high center shifts more over the Desert Southwest. For tomorrow, the latest HREF and REFS members continue to hint at a modest shortwave perturbation rounding the high center and moving through the northern Panhandle during the evening. With ample H7-H5 moisture and an axis of instability peaking around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, storms firing off the higher terrain of CO/NM might have a decent environment to work with allowing them to persist well into the evening as they track east southeast. Given this, have increased PoPs slightly over NBM to nudge more towards the CAMs, as they have performed well lately and generally show more activity than the medium range guidance. PoPs will decrease with southern extent towards the central and southern TX Panhandle due to the position of the shortwave, however, some isolated storms may fire in the south during the afternoon as high temperatures are expected to exceed convective T. With DCAPE values around 1300-1600 (inverted-V profiles) and mostly low shear (<20kts effective shear), rogue microbursts will be a concern. If the storms congeal across the OK Panhandle a far northern TX Panhandle, strong to damaging winds gusts may become more scattered than isolated, but the lack of shear should result in outflow dominant cells. Some pockets of heavy downpours are also expected with the stronger storms given modest PWATs 1.0-1.3", but these storms may be moving fast enough that flooding is not expected. Otherwise, it will be hot again, with most of the central and east zones under a heat advisory and PDC will get an Extreme Heat Warning. Some spotty elevated fire weather is also expected given the slight uptick in southwest winds during the afternoon. For Monday, a similar setup unfolds with the addition of a weak boundary in the area. Temperatures should be slightly cooler, and it looks like a later arrival for any shortwaves. Thus, storms may be more spotty until late in the evening. Heat advisories look likely for parts of the south, but that could hinge on the strength and position of the boundary currently indicated in the short range models. Ward && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Latest medium and long term ensembles continue to suggest that high pressure will continue shifting west Tuesday into Wednesday. This will allow shortwave disturbances to cross into the area on northwest flow aloft, and provide more chances for evening and overnight storms. Temperatures also may drop at least for a day or two partially due to the increased cloud cover, but also in response to height falls and being remove from the high pressure center resulting in less amplified low level thermal ridge. Unfortunately, it looks like the high does try to squeeze back to the east late week into next weekend, so chances are we will see at least a few more days of widespread 100-105 degree heat to finish off August. Hopefully early September will see the demise of our high pressure, as some longer range ensemble members are suggesting. Ward && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions expected with southerly and southwesterly winds becoming breezing during the daylight hours. Isolated to scattered storms are expected once again during the afternoon and evening, with highest probability for impacts being across our northern terminals (KDHT and KGUY). Outflow from these storms could produce strong wind gusts along with sudden wind shifts. Ward && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ004-005- 008>010-012>015-017>020-317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...07  766 FXUS64 KLUB 230343 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1043 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1041 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Record breaking high temperatures possible Sunday and Monday. - Stronger breezes and low RH values will bring elevated fire danger on Sunday and Monday afternoon. - Storm chances return each day next week beginning Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Showers continue to dissipate across the region. These showers are expected to clear the area in the next couple of hours. Current radar imagery shows the outflow that pushed southwest across the forecast area through the evening has mostly exited the region. Once the showers clear and the outflow exits to forecast area, the rest of the overnight period will be quiet. Light winds will vary between south to southwest through the overnight hours. Lows remain unseasonably warm in the 70s across the region. Some localized areas may only reach as low as the lower 80s. Sunday will be another hot one. On the upper levels, ridging will remain over the forecast area as an upper trough dominates eastern CONUS. A secondary upper trough will swing onshore over the Pacific Northwest. Thickness increases below the the ridging will increase temperatures a couple degrees compared to today. Temperatures on the Caprock will reach up to 106 degrees. Temperatures off the Caprock will range from 106 up to 113 degrees. Tying the record daily high temperature will be possible at both KLBB and KCDS. The previous record for KLBB is 106 degrees set in 2024. The forecast high for Lubbock is 105 degrees. The previous record at KCDS is 111 degrees set in 2024 with a forecast high of 110 degrees. Due to the hot temperatures, a Heat Advisory is in effect Sunday from noon until 8 PM for the eastern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains. At the same time, an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect Sunday from noon until 8 PM for the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains. South to southwesterly winds are expected to pick up during the afternoon hours around 15 to 20 mph. With RH values reaching as low as 15 percent across the region and breezy winds, elevated fire conditions are expected across the entire forecast area. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect for the far southern Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and Rolling Plains from noon until 8 PM. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Sadly, the hot temperatures are here to stay for the first part of the long term forecast. Not much change to the upper pattern for Monday with the upper ridging remaining over the region. Thickness increases will increase high temperatures a couple more degrees for Monday. Areas on the Caprock can expect high temperatures around 105 degrees. Areas off the Caprock can expect highs up to 113 degrees. Highs on Monday could possibly break the daily record high at both KLBB and KCDS. The upper ridging will begin to retreat southwest on Tuesday bringing northwesterly flow aloft. A couple embedded shortwaves will bring thunderstorm chances each late afternoon and evening everyday through the weekend. With the retreat of the upper ridging, we will see a cool down in high temperatures, however not by much as highs through the week remain forecasted in the upper 90s to triple digits. By the weekend, models indicate the upper ridging will begin to flatten and expand east back over the region possibly warming up temperatures to Heat Advisory (105-109 degrees) level again. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at allTAF sites. A cluster of thunderstorms and a gusty outflow is currently impacting KPVW. Northeasterly winds up to 30 mph will be possible with these thunderstorms. This cluster is also expected to impact KLBB in the next hour or two. Winds at KLBB will remain from the south to southwest until the cluster reaches the terminal. Winds will shift to the northeast following the passage of the outflow. Light to moderate rain can be expected with these storms as well. These storms should clear both KPVW and KLBB around 3-4Z. The cluster of storms has cleared KCDS, however could see some erratic winds as these storms move away from the terminal. Once storms clear the terminals, winds are expected to shift back to the southwest through the overnight hours and through Sunday afternoon. Hot temperatures are expected again tomorrow, especially around KCDS. Check density altitude. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ024>026- 030>032-035>038-041>044. Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ024>026- 031-032. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...10  809 FXUS63 KDMX 230345 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1045 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Generally quiet weather for the upcoming week, with daily high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid-80s. - Decent rain chances (around 50%) late Sunday night and Monday, otherwise only low and spotty chances for most of the week. - Early signs of a somewhat more active weather pattern next weekend, with a return of more persistent rain chances but any details still unclear at this range. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 An omega blocking pattern is attempting to set up across North America, but is not fully entrenched. At 500 MB a large ridge is entrenched across the southern High Plains and over toward the Four Corners region, bringing near-record warmth to parts of that area, and extending far northward into Central Canada. Meanwhile, two troughs are present with the western one just coming ashore over the U.S. Pacific Northwest, while downstream, another trough is digging from Hudson Bay down across Ontario and into the U.S. Great Lakes region. Iowa currently lies beneath the brisk northwesterly steering flow between the ridge and the eastern trough. At the surface, a large high pressure area is spilling down from the Canadian plains into the Midwest, heralding relatively quiet and comfortable weather for Iowa this weekend. High temperatures will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s both today and Sunday, with dewpoints generally in the 50s and 60s. This will make for a glorious weekend for most late summer outdoor activities. Tonight into early Sunday, as the ridge settles across Iowa and winds to light to calm beneath virtually clear skies, we should radiate nicely with temperatures falling into the 50s in much of the state. Some guidance outputs light fog around sunrise Sunday, however, most does not and given relatively dry soils and more organized winds right off the deck, as well as the sparsity of wispy fog that occurred this morning, do not believe probability or impacts are sufficient to justify adding it to the forecast for Sunday morning. During the day on Sunday, the Pacific Northwest 500 MB trough will begin to move east northeastward around the periphery of the High Plains ridge, which will begin to flatten the northward part of the ridge and allow a subtle shortwave impulse to overtop it ahead of the main trough. This shortwave will move over or near Iowa on Sunday night into Monday and bring a return of rain chances to our forecast area. Initially, there will be substantial dry air to overcome per forecast soundings, so while a few model solutions attempt to bring isolated showers into our western and southwestern counties late in the day Sunday, have held POPs out until later Sunday night when saturation may achieve sufficient depth to support rain chances. These chances will then continue during the day Monday before fading out as the shortwave moves away to the east. Instability will be very limited with this system so while scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast, severe weather is not currently anticipated. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 By Monday night the eastern 500 MB trough will have shifted over Quebec, while the western one crosses from Saskatchewan into Manitoba, then subsequently shifts east southeastward into the Lake Superior region by Wednesday. In Iowa this will be concurrent with a very light surface pressure/flow pattern, resulting in nebulous low rain chances at times from Monday night into Wednesday. As the 500 MB trough moves over Lake Superior, it will help push a large surface high pressure area down the northern High Plains and Midwest during this time, later bringing relatively comfortable and dry weather from around Wednesday night through Friday. The onset of the influence of this surface ridge will take the form of a modest trough, pushing through ahead of the main mid-level shortwave sometime around Tuesday night. Differences in timing and the sharpness of the trough lead to a high variability in model solutions, however, there does appear to be some potential for good destabilization on Tuesday afternoon/evening and also potential for moderate deep-layer (0-6 KM) shear of perhaps 30-35 KT or so. Again, there is significant variability in these solutions and much will depend on diurnal timing, but it is possible if the trough has enough low-level convergence and comes through during peak diurnal heating time, there may be a narrow window of opportunity for pulse storms with a severe weather threat late Tuesday. A more likely scenario, however, is that the trough comes through overnight with much less instability and/or weaker shear, or that the trough is too weak and low-level convergence is not sufficient to support stronger updrafts, or both. By next weekend, the 500 MB pattern should begin to shift just a bit, with the ridge flattening and shifting a bit toward the southwestern U.S., while a more zonal flow pattern sets up across the northern CONUS and Iowa. This would favor a somewhat more active weather regime in our region, with persistent rain chances likely returning. Of course that is still a week-plus out, but something to keep an eye on in the coming days. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected across the terminals through the period. While a low chance remains for fog this morning, it should remain quite isolated and transient in nature. Confidence is not high enough to include at any particular site but will amend as needed given trends. Cloud cover will increase throughout the day, especially late in the period as showers move into western Iowa. Any showers with this incoming system are not expected to impact KFOD/KDSM until after the end of the forecast period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lee LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...Bury  920 FXUS64 KBRO 230349 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1049 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1047 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Hot and rain-free conditions will continue through late next week. - Moderate (level 2 of 4) to major risk (3 of 4) of heat-related impacts through the period with peak afternoon heat indices generally between 105 to around 110 degrees. - The combination of low minimum relativity humidity values, dry fuels, and very hot temperatures could lead to the potential for rapid wildfire spread through the period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A strong 500 mb ridge will meander over southern New Mexico/western Texas and northern Mexico extending over Texas through late next week. This will continue to provide subsidence across Deep South Texas with very hot and mainly rain-free conditions through forecast period. Daily high temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s to around 105 degrees, except near the coast. The combination of the very hot temperatures and elevated dewpoint temperatures will support heat indices generally between 105 to 110 degrees each afternoon. Heat indices may briefly reach 111+ at a few locations in the afternoon, but temperatures should remain just below Heat Advisory criteria each day. Widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) to Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk expected through the weekend and into the middle of next week. The combination of low minimum relativity humidity values, dry fuels, and very hot temperatures could lead to the potential for rapid wildfire spread through the period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Southeast winds around 15 kts with some gusts around 20 kts prevail across Deep South Texas early this evening. Winds are expected to decrease later this evening and overnight. Southeast winds will increase and become moderate and gusty mid to late morning. Some gusts up to 20 knots will be possible in the afternoon. Will continue to include a TEMPO at MFE between 10 to 14Z Sunday for a low chance of MVFR stratocumulus. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Favorable marine conditions will prevail along the lower Texas Coast through the period as high pressure continues across the Gulf. Light to occasionally moderate south to southeast winds and low seas are expected through late next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 While we're likely to fall just short of Fire Danger conditions (i.e. 15-20+ 20 foot wind), we're on the razor's edge when considering pulse gusts. Unlike earlier this week, however, the gradient does slacken enough to keep even a reasonable worst-case gust factor to 25 mph along/east of IH-69C/US-281, and 20 mph to the west. But the combination of flash drought, the potential for afternoon RH to fall into the 15-25% range west of IH-69C/US 281 (and 25-35% east of there) as well as re-cured fuels based on visuals and the above-average evaporation rates are enough to keep the wildfire prevention message front and center. Burn bans remain in effect for all but Kenedy County, and just a spark combined with even a pulse gust could quickly turn into a wildfire that could spread fairly rapidly. Since late July, there were two large wildfires with nearly 1400 acres burned in western Brooks - an area that missed out on two rain events not too far away (southwestern Brooks). The last truly beneficial rain over a decent-sized area was on August 2...and those benefits are long dried up. Continue to promote wildfire safety and prevention until further notice.&& .CLIMATE... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 How hot, August? Through the 21st, ranking in the top two or three all-time for most available stations. Rival years include 2023 (tops for several locations) and 2009 (tops for McAllen). 2023 remains the hottest meteorological summer (June-August) and astronomical summer (June 21 - September 21, in general)...but 2026 is hot on its heels. Given the expected temperatures to remain around 3 degrees above average through the end of August, several locations may tie or even push ahead of 2023's benchmark. Here are the current stats for August, through the 21st: Location (since) August (Rank) Record (year) Brownsville (1878) 90.0 (2) 90.5 (2023) McAllen (1941) 91.5 (2) 92.3 (2009) Harlingen (1912) 88.6 (5) 90.3 (2023) McCook (1942) 89.3 (4) 90.1 (1998) Port Mansfield (1958) 86.8 (2) 87.3 (2023) Rio Grande City (1897)* 90.3 (3) 93.0 (1901)* Weslaco (1914) 89.5 (2) 90.4 (2023) Raymondville (1913) 89.7 (1) 2026 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 100 79 99 80 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 104 75 102 76 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 106 78 104 79 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 106 76 105 76 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 90 80 90 81 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 98 77 97 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...63-KC LONG TERM....63-KC AVIATION...63-KC FIRE WEATHER/CLIMATE...52-Goldsmith