460 FXUS63 KIND 230204 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1004 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and less humid weather expected through Tuesday. - The next best chance for rain will be Wednesday Night through Thursday. && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 1002 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Isolated evening convection over northeastern central Indiana has dissipated and moved off to the Richmond/Connersville area. Otherwise lower humidity and a cooler overnight is on tap for the region as Canadian high pressure slowly builds east from the Dakotas into the Midwest. West-northwest flow will slacken to around 5KT/less by pre-dawn hours, allowing radiative cooling under mostly clear skies to bring patchy fog across the realm...and early morning minimums ranging from 57F in Winchester to 62F in Washington. && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Saturday)... Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Surface analysis early this afternoon shows broad low pressure in place over Ontario. A weak trough within this flow has pushed east of Indiana into Ohio, and westerly flow was in place. Some SCT-BKN CU had developed over Central Indiana and was quickly pushing east. Aloft, strong ridging was in place over the Rockies, resulting in lee side subsidence spilling across the northern plains and into the Ohio Valley on NW flow. Dew points across Central Indiana were mainly in the mid 60s and skies were clear over IL and IA, building toward Indiana. Tonight and Sunday... Upper ridging is expected to build east tonight and Sunday toward the upper midwest. This will keep NW flow in place across Indiana and allow subsidence to continue to build across our region. Strong surface high pressure will build across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will result in a mostly clear night and a mostly sunny Sunday. Highs will reach the upper 70s to around 80 on Sunday. Monday... Another pleasant late summer day will be in place on Monday, as ridging aloft continues to be in place over the upper midwest, allowing NW flow to continue to flow across Indiana with subsidence. Models suggest strong surface high pressure in place, stretching from Ontario to the deep south. Forecast soundings remain very dry during this period, thus another mostly sunny/partly cloudy day will be expected with highs in the lower 80s. Tuesday through Saturday... The upper pattern for much of the latter parts of the forecast will remain consistently from the NW. Stronger ridging aloft over the western CONUS looks to continue this ongoing NW flow across the upper midwest and into the Ohio Valley. An exception within this pattern will be on Thursday as an upper trough within the NW flows will push through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, providing some upper support. This feature will push a cold front across Central Indiana on Thursday, resulting in our best chances of the week for some light precipitation. Otherwise, surface high pressure due to the lee side subsidence aloft will continue to be dominate on Tuesday-Wednesday and again on Friday and Saturday. Expect temperatures to remain at or slightly below seasonal normals. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 738 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Impacts: - VCSH possible through 01Z at KHUF - Low chance for brief fog at outlying terminals late tonight Discussion: Mainly VFR conditions to continue across central Indiana through Sunday evening as Canadian surface high pressure advances from the Dakotas to the Midwest. Cannot rule out a stray narrow downpour in the vicinity of KLAF or west of KHUF through 01Z this evening, but confidence only high enough to include at KHUF. Otherwise, sustained winds to fall below 7KT at outlying terminals by 01Z...with west-northwest flow becoming light, if not variable by 06Z. Fog/BR is possible at the outlying sites late tonight under mostly clear skies and low dew point depressions amid cooler conditions. Mainly FEW/SCT decks expected Sunday amid light to moderate northwest breezes that will gust up to 13-17KT by late afternoon, especially at KLAF/KIND. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ UPDATE...AGM AVIATION...AGM DISCUSSION...Puma  985 FXUS62 KKEY 230211 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1011 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Conditions remain somewhat favorable for an island cloud line and associated waterspouts this Sunday. - Rain and thunder chances will gradually return to near normal by early to middle of next week. - Highs in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s suggest afternoon heat indices will peak at 105 to 108 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1010 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A col region within the surface wind field continued to linger over the Florida Keys this afternoon. Winds across the reef were light, occasionally variable, south to southeasterly breezes. In addition, CIMSS MIMIC Layer PWAT estimated values between 1.4 and 1.6 inches across the Keys throughout the day. For reference, the 10th percentile value at Key West for August 23 is around 1.5 inches. The KKEY 00Z sounding sampled an environmental PWAT that exactly matched the 10th percentile value. Measured low level winds were weaker than 5 knots. While the deep layers of the atmosphere were abnormally dry, that does not mean the surface dew points are lower than normal. Dew points in the mid to upper 70s were measured across the island chain throughout the evening. These features combined offer an explanation as to why the KBYX radar observed few, if any, showers developed near the Keys this evening. The most significant convection was a shower cell that managed to form just north of Big Pine Key just before sunset. Tonight, there are very few indications the weather pattern will change significantly. The synoptic scale features that enabled the col region to form-a broad high over the western Gulf, the Atlantic High centered west of the Azores, and low pressure systems over North America-are still present. Expect another mostly clear and muggy night across the Keys. Winds may be even lighter than yesterday, so we have high confidence in radiational cooling reducing temperatures at the interiors of the largest islands. There are a few hints that we get a wetter pattern across the Keys in the numerical models, except that pulse of moisture was not arrive in the Keys until mid week. Tomorrow, brace for another day of muggy weather! && .MARINE... Issued at 1010 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a split ridge pattern remains in place across the Florida Keys coastal waters. This will promote generally light to gentle southeast to east breezes through Sunday night, becoming variable at times during the afternoon hours. While North Atlantic ridging builds westward, southeasterly to easterly breezes will become more established from Sunday night through the middle of next week, becoming gentle and at times moderate during the overnight hours. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1010 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the upcoming period. Periods of light and variable winds continue to be observed at both terminals. Showers are unlikely given the dry conditions. The greatest chance for VCSH would be tomorrow afternoon. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest  315 FXUS63 KBIS 230219 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 919 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low to medium chances for showers/thunderstorms push over the area at various times late tonight through Sunday night, possibly lingering over parts of the area into Monday. - A few storms may be strong to severe in western and central North Dakota Sunday into Sunday night, and central and eastern North Dakota on Monday. - Near to slightly above average temperatures remain in the forecast through the upcoming week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 919 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A quiet evening continues and the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The ongoing forecast looks good at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Current surface analysis places broad high centered over southern Manitoba into the eastern Dakotas, while a low is starting to develop to the lee of the Rockies. Upper level analysis places high over New Mexico, with ridge running northward generally to the lee of the Rockies. Over our area, light winds remain over most locations, though are becoming southeasterly and increasing over our southwest in response to the developing low. For tonight, surface high pushes east with south-southeasterly winds on the increase, particularly over western areas. On Sunday, south-southeasterly winds will continue over the area resulting in increasing low-level moisture and higher humidity values. Of note will be increasing instability values over southwestern into south central North Dakota, with some guidance noting CAPE values exceeding 2000 J/Kg, though guidance is keeping deep layer shear marginal and also possibly capped given the possible limited heating due to mid-level cloud cover. Therefore, will keep severe threat marginal at this point focused mainly over the southwest/south central. As we get into Monday night, the next thunderstorm threat pushes in from Montana late as another short wave makes its approach, again posing a marginal severe threat. Chances then spread east through the day on Monday as the wave and surface trough/front slide easterly. Again, guidance is suggesting elevated instability as we get into primarily central/eastern North Dakota with marginal shear, but then timing of this system comes into play. Therefore, will continue to focus on the marginal threat. On Tuesday, western ridge remains in place but a very compact short wave/low slides down the face of the ridge, but at this point only looks to graze our northeastern areas. Therefore, most locations are expected to remain mild and dry, though some precipitation chances will be in place mainly around the Turtle Mountains. Ridge to the west slowly creeps east and remains the dominating factor keeping temperatures near to above average through the remainder of the forecast, though a few waves pushing through do bring occasional precipitation chances. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR ceilings and visibility are present and should persist through most of tonight. However, a few showers and thunderstorms may enter western North Dakota later tonight, which could result in isolated categorical reductions in ceilings and/or visibility. Higher shower and thunderstorm chances are then forecast through the day Sunday for western through central North Dakota. However, model guidance is not consistent at all in regard to location or timing for thunderstorm activity. The highest chances seem to favor western and south central North Dakota during the day time. However, thunderstorms may also impact the north central. Currently impacts over the north central are favored Sunday evening after the period, but wouldn't be completely surprised if a few didn't occur earlier during the afternoon anyways. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Telken DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...Telken  057 FXUS62 KILM 230237 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1037 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for 00Z TAFS. Corrected Key Messages section. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and storms capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding through this evening. 2) A reprieve from the extreme heat with shower and storm chances returning mid to late next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding through this evening. A weak meso-low along a stalled frontal zone and attendant MCV responsible for a cluster of heavy rain showers that produced 1 to 2 inches of rain across portions of Brunswick, New Hanover and Pender counties earlier this morning has moved north and east of the area. However, daytime heating and moderate destabilization within the moist airmass, combined with weak synoptic height falls associated with the upper trough building into the region and additional upper impulses traversing the region, should support the re-development of scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible near the immediate coast and offshore tonight as impulses aloft interact with instability over the very warm ocean. Locally heavy rain and isolated flash flooding will remain possible through this evening, with HREF and REFS highlighting coastal counties/zones as having the greatest potential for localized 2-4" rainfall totals. Modest lapse rates and shear should limit the overall severe threat, though an isolated wet microburst cannot be ruled out. KEY MESSAGE 2... A reprieve from the extreme heat with shower and storm chances returning mid to late next week. An upper air pattern featuring a strong upper-high anchored over the Southwest and mean troughing over the east-central U.S. will prevail through the period. This pattern will will bring a welcomed reprieve from the recent extreme heat, with temperatures returning more to seasonable levels along with and lower BL dewpoints and humidity. Noticeably drier air and lower PWATs, potentially falling into the lowest 2 to 10 percentile of climatology will advect into the area Sunday. Despite a lingering weak boundary and weak disturbances swinging through the area, the dry air should limit rain chances to mainly widely scattered showers and storms, focused near the immediate coast Sunday and Monday. Moisture and instability will gradually return to more typical levels Tuesday onward, yielding chances of mainly diurnal showers and storms through the remainder of the period. Storm coverage could increase to to likely or numerous levels Friday and Saturday as the next cold front approaches the area. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mainly VFR to start off the 00Z TAF period, however showers and storms will remain possible near the coast over the next few hours bringing occasional MVFR/IFR conditions. The main aviation concern continues to be the potential for areas of fog and stratus during the predawn hours Sunday morning. Moderate confidence in this happening at KLBT and KFLO, so included TEMPO groups there. Low confidence at the coastal terminals, so kept it out for now. Any sub-VFR restrictions that develop should lift/improve rapidly between 12 to 14z with isolated to scattered convection expected Sunday afternoon and evening, mainly along the immediate coast. Extended Forecast... Rain chances will be relatively low Monday, followed by a return of scattered diurnal showers and storms Tuesday through Thursday as humidity and moisture increases. Periods of early morning fog and low stratus will also be possible. && .MARINE... Tonight through Thursday...Marine conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. Expect generally south to southwest winds to prevail through the period as a weak front stalls near the coast. Winds are expected to peak around 15-20 kts over Saturday night and wave heights stay around 3 ft or less within 20 nmi and up to 4 ft in the 20-60 nmi zones, highest this weekend. The biggest marine impact will likely be from scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the waters through the weekend as a front stalls near the coast. There will likely be several rounds of storms, accompanied by reduced visibility and possible gusty winds. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...MAS/ABW KEY MESSAGES...ABW/CBL DISCUSSION...CBL AVIATION...MAS/CBL MARINE...ABW/CBL  238 FXUS63 KAPX 230243 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1043 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms continue into this evening. Locally heavy rain and lightning will be the main threats. Severe storms are not expected. - Cool, breezy, and scattered rain showers Sunday. - Dry weather expected to start next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1202 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Troughing draped across much of the eastern half of the continent will continue to amplify this weekend as a strong jet digs across the northern Great Plains/Midwest today, rounding the base of the trough over the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic tonight and Sunday. Strong divergence aloft will provide continued support for the surface cyclone stretching from Hudson Bay down into the Great Lakes as it works east this weekend. Ridging sliding over the northern Great Plains/Canadian Plains will help build surface high pressure into the Great Lakes on the backside of this system through the first half of the week. Troughing then looks to move back into the region by the end of the work week. Forecast Details: A line of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move east across northeast lower this afternoon into this evening. Cannot completely rule out some stray showers across other areas, but the bulk of showers/storms will remain east of I-75 into the early evening hours coinciding with the weak cold front passage. As has been the case so far today, the primary focus with this activity will be heavy downpours and lightning -- with reports of over 2" of rainfall in localized areas so far. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out, but severe storms are not anticipated given weak shear in place. As a cooler, relatively moist airmass overspreads the area with northwest low-level flow behind the front, additional isolated to scattered rain showers will be possible beginning late this evening and continuing at times through Sunday. In fact, our first true taste of fall may be Sunday. Northwest winds will increase to 10-15 mph with gusts to 25-35 mph at times through the day with noticeably cooler temperatures during the day. Little daytime warming is anticipated given northwest flow and cloud cover/shower activity -- likely keeping temperatures in the low to mid 60s through the afternoon. Right in line with the fall feel will be the potential for some waterspouts over the Great Lakes nearshore waters this weekend given the cool, moist air passing over the relatively warmer lake surface. Looking into the work week, rain chances will come to an end by Monday with dry weather in store through the first half of the week as high pressure builds in. Cooler temperatures in the low to mid 70s are expected on Monday before warming back into the upper 70s and low 80s through the rest of the week. Rain chances look to return on Wednesday, but may hold off until late Wednesday as some of the latest guidance has trended slower on arrival time in most recent runs. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1036 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Low clouds build in tonight, mainly for KCIU and KAPN, turning VFR to MVFR. This lingers into the 14Z to 15Z time frame before low VFR remains for most. TEMPO for MVFR CIGs not impossible at other sites. Northwest winds remain elevated through the night, becoming breezy on Sunday, 10-15G20-25KTs. ISO to SCT -SHRA/VCSH also expected on Sunday, midday and into the afternoon hours. TSRA not expected at this time. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for LHZ346. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Monday for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342- 344. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Sunday night for LMZ345-346. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322. && $$ DISCUSSION...DJC AVIATION...JLD  312 FXUS61 KOKX 230245 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1045 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated for 03z TAF amendments. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Conditions remain unsettled this weekend, with a chance for locally heavy downpours tonight into Sunday. A few storms on Sunday could be strong to severe. 2) Drier conditions settle in early to mid next week, with temperatures averaging slightly below normal. 3) Showers and thunderstorm chances return towards the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Heights fall into tonight as mid level troughing digs south from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Though the parent surface low remains well to the north and west of the region, a weak wave of low pressure tracks north along an offshore frontal boundary tonight, passing nearby Sunday morning, before the attendant cold front moves through later in the day. Light rain or drizzle remains possible into this evening, mainly across eastern LI and coastal SE CT, before rain chances gradually increase throughout the forecast area with the approach of the frontal wave tonight. Strengthening SW flow aloft will advect deep moisture plume into the region during this time, with PWATs increasing to between 1.5 and 2 inches. Rain coverage is expected to be more scattered in nature than widespread overnight, and some areas will remain much drier than others. But with the ample moisture available, as well as some instability Sunday morning observed in forecast soundings, can't rule out localized flooding if heavier activity persists or trains over one area. A strong to severe thunderstorm also can't be ruled out in the mid to late morning hours and SPC has kept the region outlined in a marginal (level 1/5) risk, with an isolated damaging wind gust possible. Despite the rain chances, the remainder of the weekend won't be a washout, and QPF overall is expected to be modest, on the order of a quarter to half inch. Given the nature of the convective activity, there could be a few areas that pick up a quick couple of inches of rain should cells prove more persistent, but this would be quite localized if it were to occur. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Beyond the frontal passage, the closed low trough continues to shift into the Northeast, keeping mid level heights low. Surface high pressure builds in from the Midwest, with westerly flow persisting through midweek. Given the cyclonic flow and cold pool aloft, expect a fair amount of stratcu development Monday afternoon, and can't rule out a few pop up showers across the interior. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below climo for late August, daytime highs generally in the 70s to low 80s. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Guidance continues to indicate the approach of the next frontal system from the west along with a digging upper level trough late this week. This will bring a return to a more unsettled weather pattern with chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. It's too early at this time to narrow down any potential severe threats from this system. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A weak wave of low pressure slowly approaches from the south tonight, passing through some terminals Sunday morning. A cold front then moves through Sunday night. All terminals lower to IFR late tonight with showers and eventually improve back to VFR Sunday afternoon. Better overall thunder chances (noted with PROB30) start after sunrise on Sunday with the approach and passage of the low center and subsequent approach of a weak cold front/trough later in the day. Winds mainly E to SE under 10kt through tonight, shifting briefly SE to S Sunday morning, then SW by around noontime formost terminals. Terminals east of NYC shift SW later in the day. Gusts up to 20kt Sunday afternoon are possible. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... For all terminals, IFR might not happen tonight with conds instead remaining MVFR. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Sunday through Wednesday: VFR. SW gusts around 20kt on Monday afternoon. Thursday: VFR AM, chance of sub-VFR and -shra PM. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Conditions on the coastal waters are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds with a weak pressure gradient in place through mid next week. Rip Currents: The rip current risk for the rest of today is low to moderate. A moderate risk is expected for both Sunday and Monday. The swell will be primarily from the SE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DR AVIATION...JT MARINE...JC/DR  502 FXUS63 KGRB 230246 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 946 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather returns Sunday and Monday, with a period of unsettled weather arriving for the middle of next week. - A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for central Green Bay and Lake Michigan nearshore waters north of Sturgeon Bay until 10 AM Sunday. - Slightly below normal temps this weekend, then a return to near normal readings for most of next week. Lows Sunday night may drop into the 30s north-central. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Near term through Sunday...Northwest flow and shortwave diving across this afternoon during peak heating will result in isolated to scattered showers through 7p, especially far northeast WI and on across Door County. While weak deep layer shear (less than 25 kts) limits overall storm organization and the severe threat, MLCAPEs up to 1000 J/kg, inverted-V soundings, very steep low- level lapse rates, and lower freezing levels will promote some gustier winds and small hail in the stronger showers/storms. Northwest winds will be breezy at 15 to 25 mph this afternoon, before diminishing this evening. Closer approach of sfc high will bring dry weather tonight into Sunday. Upper trough (cold air aloft) close enough to lead to another partly to mostly cloudy afternoon as fair weather cu blossoms. Northwest winds will be a little lighter on Sunday, but could still gust to 20 mph. Extended...Dry, but chilly Sunday night with high overhead and low PWATs allowing for good radiational cooling. MOS guidance already suggesting that typical cold spots up north could drop into the mid to upper 30s. Next chance for showers and some storms arrives Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon as a sharp mid- level trough and sfc cold front work through. If cold front is slower on Wednesday (ECMWF), there would be better chance for a few stronger storms over eastern WI that afternoon. Instability appears modest with this mid-week feature, keeping severe risk low. Machine learning is mixed at best on severe potential. Then, similar to today post fropa, steeper lapse rates and peak heating may yield another round of isolated to scattered showers and storms on Thursday. Temperatures...After the cooling this weekend into early Monday, temps return to near or even slightly above normal with highs mainly in the mid 70s to low 80s. Normal highs for the coming week start off in the 77-78F range, but by next weekend fall off into the mid 70s. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 944 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Upper level disturbances within a sharp trough axis are shifting over northern Lake Michigan early this evening and taking showers and thunderstorms with them. Lingering fair weather clouds above 6 kft are observed on satellite behind the shortwave. These clouds will likely dissipate with loss of heating by 01-02Z. With a modest pressure gradient, MOS guidance shows little to no fog threat, but will monitor as climatology would suggest some patchy fog is possible across the northwoods where rain occurred this afternoon. Fair weather clouds will likely build with daytime heating 15-16Z Sunday. Cloud bases will remain VFR (5-6 kft) which will gradually rise through the afternoon. Northwest winds will remain breezy on Sunday with gusts 14-18 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Northwest winds of 10-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts expected tonight into Sunday morning behind re-inforcing cold front. Have hoisted Small Craft Advisory for the central Bay and for Lake Michigan nearshore waters north of Sturgeon Bay. Strongest winds will be near Death's Door and Washington Island. Offshore winds will limit waves to 1 to 3 ft for most spots on the bay and nearshore waters, with any 3-4 foot waves staying in the open waters. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....JLA AVIATION.......MPC MARINE.........JLA  626 FXUS63 KGRB 230251 CCA AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Green Bay WI 951 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather returns Sunday and Monday, with a period of unsettled weather arriving for the middle of next week. - A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for central Green Bay and Lake Michigan nearshore waters north of Sturgeon Bay until 10 AM Sunday. - Slightly below normal temps this weekend, then a return to near normal readings for most of next week. Lows Sunday night may drop into the 30s north-central. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Near term through Sunday...Northwest flow and shortwave diving across this afternoon during peak heating will result in isolated to scattered showers through 7p, especially far northeast WI and on across Door County. While weak deep layer shear (less than 25 kts) limits overall storm organization and the severe threat, MLCAPEs up to 1000 J/kg, inverted-V soundings, very steep low- level lapse rates, and lower freezing levels will promote some gustier winds and small hail in the stronger showers/storms. Northwest winds will be breezy at 15 to 25 mph this afternoon, before diminishing this evening. Closer approach of sfc high will bring dry weather tonight into Sunday. Upper trough (cold air aloft) close enough to lead to another partly to mostly cloudy afternoon as fair weather cu blossoms. Northwest winds will be a little lighter on Sunday, but could still gust to 20 mph. Extended...Dry, but chilly Sunday night with high overhead and low PWATs allowing for good radiational cooling. MOS guidance already suggesting that typical cold spots up north could drop into the mid to upper 30s. Next chance for showers and some storms arrives Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon as a sharp mid- level trough and sfc cold front work through. If cold front is slower on Wednesday (ECMWF), there would be better chance for a few stronger storms over eastern WI that afternoon. Instability appears modest with this mid-week feature, keeping severe risk low. Machine learning is mixed at best on severe potential. Then, similar to today post fropa, steeper lapse rates and peak heating may yield another round of isolated to scattered showers and storms on Thursday. Temperatures...After the cooling this weekend into early Monday, temps return to near or even slightly above normal with highs mainly in the mid 70s to low 80s. Normal highs for the coming week start off in the 77-78F range, but by next weekend fall off into the mid 70s. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 944 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Very isolated areas of mid-clouds exist, but skies have cleared for the most part across northeast WI. Mainly clear skies are expected through 15Z Sunday morning. With a modest pressure gradient, MOS guidance shows little to no fog threat, but will monitor as climatology would suggest some patchy fog is possible across the northwoods where rain occurred this afternoon. Fair weather clouds will likely build with daytime heating 15-16Z Sunday. Cloud bases will remain VFR (5-6 kft) which will gradually rise through the afternoon. The clearing is expected early Sunday evening. Northwest winds will remain breezy on Sunday with gusts 14-18 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Northwest winds of 10-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts expected tonight into Sunday morning behind re-inforcing cold front. Have hoisted Small Craft Advisory for the central Bay and for Lake Michigan nearshore waters north of Sturgeon Bay. Strongest winds will be near Death's Door and Washington Island. Offshore winds will limit waves to 1 to 3 ft for most spots on the bay and nearshore waters, with any 3-4 foot waves staying in the open waters. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....JLA AVIATION.......MPC MARINE.........JLA