892 FXUS61 KPHI 230152 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 952 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Aviation section FOR 00z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Cold front passes through the region Sunday morning with conditions improving for Sunday afternoon. 2. Fair weather is expected to return later Sunday and should persist into the middle of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold front passes through the region Sunday morning with conditions improving for Sunday afternoon. A weak disturbance across Delmarva will continue to move offshore into the evening. Scattered showers have accompanied it so far. A rumble of thunder across far south Delaware is possible however. A low pressure system along with a negatively tilted H5 trough across the Great Lakes attm will move E-NE towards southern Canada by Sunday. An associated cold front will move across the Middle Atlantic region Sunday morning and then offshore by early afternoon. While the front will be crossing through at a time when heating will be at a minimum, we still have some good dynamics and a humid airmass in place. Accordingly, we expect showers to increase over the area later tonight and persist until FROPA on Sunday. Pops are Likely/Categorical for the Wester/Northern counties and Chance for areas South/East. The threat for Excessive Rainfall seems to overall be rather low with ample storm motion expected to keep the soakers from stalling across one area. Most areas will see one-quarter to one-half inch of rain with a few isolated spots perhaps getting around an inch. The higher totals will likely be across the Southern Poconos and North NJ. Severe weather remains possible and with CAPE values increasing overnight and peaking before FROPA Sunday, we could see some instances of Severe weather, Again, the favored areas will be North/Northwest where the SPC has kept the MARGINAL tag for the updated Day2 Outlook. Damaging winds are the primary threat for early Sunday. The front passes across the area Sunday morning while the best dynamics exit to the Northeast. Rains and thunder will end from West to East during the morning and fair weather should push in for the afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2...Fair weather is expected to return later Sunday and should persist into the middle of the upcoming week. More zonal flow with some subtle ridging moves in for the first half of the week. At the surface, high pressure will mainly be in control, resulting in dry and tranquil weather through Wednesday. Temperatures should be seasonable through this stretch. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight... Lower conditions with widespread MVFR for the mid/late evening then IFR mostly with Scattered showers and areas of fog. TSTMs may arrive late tonight as a front approaches. Continued with the VCTS for now with limited confid in TSTM occurrence. Removed TS from KILG/KMIV/KACY. Low confidence. Sunday... Low conditions during the morning (IFR/low-end MVFR), the improving quickly (VFR) following a cold front passage mid/late morning. TSTMS will have gusty winds (G35-45 kts) and short periods of IFR VSBYs possible. Winds become West after the front with some gusts around 20 knots for awhile. Medium confid. Outlook... Sunday night through Thursday...VFR expected most of the time. && .MARINE... Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions will remain across the waters tonight and Sunday. Seas on the ocean will mostly be 2 to 3 ft range thru the period. Winds will be East to Southeast mostly around 10 knots early tonight then turn South to Southwest late. Winds on Sunday will become West following the passage of a cold around around midday. Follwing the front, a few gusts around 20 kts possible. Scattered showers are expected this evening with more showers and a few TSTMS after midnight into Sunday morning. Winds and seas locally higher in TSTMs. Outlook... Sunday through Wednesday...No marine headlines expected. Showers continue Sunday morning, ending Sunday afternoon. Fair weather thereafter. Rip Currents... Rest of today...East to southeast winds around 10 mph with breaking waves of 2 to 3 feet and easterly swells with a period of 6 to 8 seconds will result in a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for the Jersey Shore and a LOW risk for Delaware Beaches. On Sunday, winds shift to the southwest at 10 to 15 mph in the morning, then to the west in the afternoon. Breaking waves will be 1 to 2 feet with light southerly swells with a 6 to 8 second period. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MPS/OHara/Staarmann AVIATION...MPS/OHara/Staarmann MARINE...MPS/OHara/Staarmann  919 FXUS63 KABR 230153 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 853 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 20-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms during the day Sunday into Sunday evening over central SD, expanding to northeastern SD/west central MN Sunday night while increasing to a 40-60% chance. - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather Sunday evening over much of central to northeastern SD. The main concerns will be golf ball size hail, wind gusts exceeding 60 mph, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall. - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather Monday night. Threat include one inch hail and 60 mph. && .UPDATE... Issued at 846 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Models still show potential for elevated showers/thundershowers across central/south central SD between 06Z and 12Z tonight/early Sunday morning. Therefore, no big changes to the 30-50% chances across the southwest CWA late tonight. Surface high pressure over the eastern CWA this evening will slowly push eastward by 12Z Sunday as southeast winds and return flow set up over central SD overnight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A surface high pressure over the region is producing tranquil weather conditions across the CWA. The high pressure will shift eastward tonight, allowing for warm air advection and increasing LLM to move into the central part of the state. Various CAMS depict weak showers and thunderstorms developing in central-south central SD between 10-15Z. These storms may dissipate or move into northern Nebraska. However, there is a 20-25 percent chance the showers become a weak broken line associated with the WAA over central and north central SD. A good portion of the CWA is under a marginal risk for severe storms, mainly Sunday afternoon and evening. There are some signals among models with convection developing over south central ND around midday, or the juxtaposition of the warm front/cold front location. These storms may grow upscale into a cold pool MCS, tracking southeastward across the CWA. The instability and deep layer shear appears best along and west of the Highway 83, with a decent drop off further east. If an individual storm is able to tap into the instability, the severe threat may be golf ball size hail and wind gusts exceeding 60 mph. The precipitation potential placement reaches near two inches, with is an indication of locally heavy rainfall with some storms. The showers and thunderstorms should exit the CWA around 12Z, with mostly dry conditions and above average temperatures on Monday. A frontal boundary sliding southward Monday night will bring a 20 to 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Some storms may produce quarter size hail and/or 60 mph winds. After a period of dry conditions midweek, another storm system will produce 30-45 percent chance of pcpn Friday night. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are generally forecast through the TAF period. South-southeast surface winds will become breezy across central SD (KPIR/KMBG) by late morning Sunday, with gusts around 25 kts. There's a chance for -TSRA/TSRA activity near the KPIR area Sunday morning and will handle this with a PROB30. Brief MVFR VSBY is possible under any -TSRA/TSRA. Another round of TSRA possible across central SD late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TMT DISCUSSION...17 AVIATION...TMT  944 FXUS63 KFSD 230154 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 854 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The next better chance for showers and storms is Sunday night (50-70%). Locally heavy rain and isolated severe storms are possible. - Otherwise most days through next week will see highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 845 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 No major changes to the forecast tonight and tomorrow. Mid to high level clouds are moving into south-central South Dakota associated with our next weak wave moving in. These clouds will continue pushing east-southeastward through the night, and the aforementioned wave will help set off some showers and weak thunderstorms starting in south-central South Dakota early tomorrow morning with this activity gradually spread east- southeastward through the day on Sunday. As it moves eastward, it will outrun any appreciable instability and become just hit or miss light showers/sprinkles as it approaches I-29. Heavy rain looks to be the main threat heading into Sunday night as the low level jet kicks up and sets off more elevated thunderstorms with the aid of an upper wave moving in from the northwest. With the potential of multiple updrafts going up around the same time, there will be plenty of competition for the strongest updraft and this will help limit a severe weather risk. However, if one or two storms can go more isolated and become a more dominant updraft, then perhaps some large hail will be possible given effective shear values around 40-45 kts. Freezing levels will be quite high though, so even if an updraft can sustain itself, hailstones will have a pretty deep warm layer to go through before it were to reach the surface. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 142 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A quiet night is ahead as high pressure drifts east. Southerly flow will develop in central SD later tonight and become more established across the area through Sunday. The light winds will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 50s, especially east of I- 29. The upper level wave responsible for the low level winds turning southerly will move into central SD tomorrow morning, and eastward and southeast from there through the day. With fairly stout low to mid level dry air, mainly an increase in cloud cover is expected through the morning. The exception will be south central SD where enough moisture may allow for 500-1000 J/kg of elevated CAPE, which will support some spotty showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected. Lift will gradually increase through the day into Sunday night, when a moderately stronger LLJ focuses on the area. Given fairly weak shear and CAPE values generally under 1000 J/kg, severe weather looks unlikely. However with a freezing level around 13 kft, locally heavy rain will be possible. Not much agreement on the location of the heavier rain with the models pretty inconsistently placing the mid level wave across the area. Some hints that the LLJ will focus somewhere on the SD side, but confidence is low. This wave moves out of the area on Monday but another weaker wave moves by to the north on Monday night and brings a small increase in warm air advection, which could spark a few showers and thunderstorms. Mainly northwest flow aloft continues Tuesday into next weekend. This will bring periodic small chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the week with little agreement on exactly when. Otherwise lows should mainly be from the mid 50s to mid 60s with highs in the 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 very patchy fog is possible late tonight into Sunday morning, mainly in river valleys and otherlow-lying areas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move into south-central South Dakota late tonight and drift southeastward through the day on Sunday. Winds will turn light and variable near and east of I-29 heading into tonight. Meanwhile, areas west of I-29 will see winds pick up a bit out of the east and then southeast heading towards daybreak Sunday. Winds will pick up across most of the area through the day Sunday out of the south. Winds will get pretty breezy west of the James River Sunday afternoon, where gusts of 25-30 kts are expected. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Samet DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...Samet