956 FXUS64 KMRX 230001 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 801 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 739 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected in Northeast Tennessee, Southwest Virginia and the East Tennessee Mountains this evening. A strong to severe storm isn't out of the question, especially in the north, but overall severe chances are low. - Sunday and Monday will be dry with rain chances returning midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A shortwave trough will drop southeast from the upper midwest into the Ohio valley between this afternoon through Sunday morning, helping to push a cold front through the region tonight. Ahead of this front, we could see some isolated strong to severe storms capable of some damaging winds this afternoon through tonight. While better chances for severe storms exist to our north, we'll be in the left exit region of a jet streak aloft this evening, with enough shear in place to support some cluster type cell organization and enough instability to support some fairly strong storms. Again, better chances exist to our north, but a strong to severe storm can't be ruled out for any points roughly north of the I-40 corridor. That being said, the chances for severe storms are overall on the low side. Looking ahead, the aforementioned shortwave will lead to a large scale upper trough deepening over the Great Lakes and eastern CONUS Sunday into Monday before pulling away through eastern Canada and the New England area on Tuesday. The subsequent northwest flow aloft will keep us dry Sun through Tue before rain chances enter the forecast again. Dewpoints may even mix out into the 50s for both Sun and Mon afternoons. And while temperatures will be near seasonal norms both days, the drier air would be a welcome break from the humid conditions of late. As mentioned, rain chances return by midweek as troughing deepens over the eastern CONUS once again. Additional shortwave energy likely brings another system and associated rain chances through the region Wed into Thu before northwest upper flow gives us another shot of dry and cooler air. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 739 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Strong storms in Middle Tennessee and Southeast Kentucky will likely weaken as they move into the region. Some showers will still be possible late this evening as a cold front approaches. Some thunder will be possible but confidence is low. In the early morning hours, some fog development will be possible after the cold front moves through mainly near TRI. There is some uncertainty if the front stalls and clouds linger longer than expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 91 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 87 62 87 / 20 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 64 87 61 87 / 20 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 81 57 82 / 50 10 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...CD AVIATION...McD  811 FXUS66 KOTX 230000 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 500 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory has been extended for Northeastern WA and North Idaho for Saturday. - Saturday will bring critical fire weather conditions across the Inland Northwest due to a combination of isolated to scattered thunderstorms producing gusty outflow winds, along with breezy winds and low relative humidity. - Patchy blowing dust is possible Saturday in the Western Columbia Basin. && .SYNOPSIS... A weather system passing through on Saturday will bring critical fire weather conditions across the Inland Northwest. This is due to a combination of isolated to scattered thunderstorms producing gusty outflow winds, along with breezy winds and low relative humidity. Sunday will remain breezy and dry, but cooler. Temperatures will warm again at the start of next week with breezy conditions returning by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today: A deep low begins its migration into the region. Midlevel moisture is streaming inland ahead of the low bringing heavy mid and high level clouds along with sprinkles and light showers. There has been a few lightning strikes near Lewiston this morning where there are a few midlevel circulations noted within the midlevels. Would not rule out a few strikes with additional activity in Central WA either due to subtle circulations showing up in the water vapor. The air mass is very warm and dry near the surface. As such, any rain falling is largely evaporating but this is leading to erratic wind gusts upwards of 15 to 20 mph. Several of the high resolution models are indicating that a few cells that can drive rain to the surface could result in gusts as high as 40 mph. This band of moisture and shower activity will slowly lift south to north and clear across the International border early Saturday morning and the upper low will begin to migrate to the WA Coast, into the North Cascades overnight and across NE WA and N ID Sunday morning. As the low and associated 500mb cold pool migrates inland, lapse rates will continue to steepen with lower levels remaining in the 90s. Areas of NE WA and N ID will only cool 3-4 degrees from Friday and Heat Advisories have been extended. One of the main concerns for Saturday will be the potential for thunderstorms developing. Initially, storms are expected to fire over the North Cascades where the upper level cooling will arrive closer to midday but as impulses rotate around the low and eject inland the potential for cells to develop over Idaho, Eastern and northern WA will increase. This looks to be closer to late afternoon into the evening hours. Any cells through the day, rain or thunderstorms that produce precipitation shafts will likely result in gusty outflow winds of 25 to 50 mph given the high based nature of this convection, extremely dry subcloud layers, and DCAPES of 500-1500 J/kg. In the most intense outflows, winds could gust closer to 60 mph. This will be closely monitored through the day as will lightning strikes and fire starts. Winds will be the other major concern through the day. Away from outflow boundaries, strong synoptic driven winds will develop across a majority of the region, especially the Western Columbia Basin and through the Cascade Gaps. Winds will initially strengthen from the south then shift to the southwest and west late in the day into the evening as cooler air floods inland. Any ongoing or new fires will stand a good chance to be fanned by gusty winds of 25-35 mph. Given our fuel dryness levels, this is very concerning. Red Flag Warnings are in place across the region to account for the synoptic winds, outflow winds, and lightning starts. Generally speaking, the Cascades, Northern Mountains, and Idaho Panhandle are in fire weather highlights for the lightning starts and gusty outflow winds though the Cascades will experience a period of strong synoptic winds Saturday evening as the cooler air floods into the region. This will draw higher humidity levels but it will take several hours for the fuels to react. We expect very little lightning in the Western and Southern Columbia Basin so this will mainly be a wind and low humidity issue. For the eastern Basin, the combination of periods of gusty winds and isolated thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening hour makes this a dual threat for fire weather. We will also need to watch for blowing dust on Saturday around Moses Lake, Ritzville, and Wilbur with a lower threat for Omak than previously thought. The gusty winds could also lead to blowing ash near any fire scars. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue well into the evening and overnight hours while winds remain elevated region-wide. The main threat for thunderstorms on Sunday will be in the morning with the system departing to the east and breezy winds becoming the most impactful weather through the day while temperatures cool back into the 80s. Monday through Friday: Ensembles continue to advertise a progressive weather pattern next week. High pressure moves in Monday and Tuesday promoting a warming and drying trend. This is quickly interrupted by another shortwave Wednesday. The exact depth and track of this through the NW comes with some uncertainty but pattern recognition would suggest another bout of windy conditions and possibly some thunderstorms. The pattern repeats itself again Thursday and Friday with the next system Friday into Saturday. We are not seeing a lot of signs for appreciable rainfall with these systems indicating fire weather concerns will remain elevated or higher as we navigate the end of August. /sb && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs: Lingering instability and an incoming system continue chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the late afternoon and well into the overnight hours. A few cells could be strong with wind gusts in excess of 50 mph. Greatest risk will be over the northern mountains, Idaho Panhandle, and into the far eastern reaches of WA. This includes KLWS, KPUW, KGEG, KSFF, and KCOE. The incoming system will bring gusty winds to much of Central WA with winds shifting from southeast to southwest and west in the evening. Local gusts near 30kts possible around KEAT. Winds will remain elevated overnight into Sunday morning as the system tracks inland. Smoke from the Cascade fires will continue to impact KEAT at times. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low confidence for TS at terminals but moderate confidence for outflow winds to impact most terminals with speeds of at least 20-30 mph. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 58 81 52 86 56 93 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 58 79 53 86 56 93 / 60 10 0 0 0 0 Pullman 50 77 45 86 50 93 / 30 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 61 85 56 91 62 98 / 30 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 51 79 44 86 47 92 / 20 30 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 55 76 47 82 51 90 / 60 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 54 76 51 84 54 90 / 40 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 55 84 53 88 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 63 83 61 87 65 92 / 0 0 0 0 00 Omak 55 84 53 88 58 93 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning until 11 AM PDT Sunday for Selkirk Mountains of Northeast Washington (Zone 700). Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for Northeast Mountains-Spokane Area. Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Lower Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). Red Flag Warning until 5 AM PDT Sunday for Eastern Columbia Basin -Palouse -Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701). Air Quality Alert until 2 PM PDT Monday for Central Chelan County-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County. Red Flag Warning until midnight PDT tonight for East Portion of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-East Washington North Cascades (Zone 698)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Highlands and Kettle Mountains (Zone 699)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703). ID...Red Flag Warning until 11 AM PDT Sunday for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101). Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d'Alene Area-Idaho Palouse- Lewiston Area-Northern Panhandle. && $$  037 FXAK67 PAJK 230002 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 402 PM AKDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Moderate to heavy rain for Ketchikan and Metlakatla possible Sunday evening and overnight. No flooding is expected a this time. - Confidence is moderate on location of heaviest rain, and strength and direction of winds in the central panhandle and Icy Strait Sunday and Monday. && .SHORT TERM... Somewhat impactful short term forecast, particularly for the southern panhandle, as an upper level low moves southwest of Prince of Wales Island. A surface low does look to develop in the central gulf tonight, moving near the eastern gulf by tomorrow morning. The associated warm front and cold front looks to merge into a triple point offshore of Point Alexander, with the warm sector over the southern panhandle Sunday evening. Freezing levels are expected to shoot to well over 10000 ft, and with strong moisture transport elevating precipitable water to greater than the 90th percentile for this time of year, it will result in heavy rainfall for this time of year. Rain rates during the peak could exceed 0.3 inches per hour for Ketchikan and Metlakatla, and 0.4 inches per hour for Misty Fjords and at elevation. There is some uncertainty with this system, for both how far the rain will extend northward, as well as the placement for heaviest rain. There are solutions that have the upper level low digging and strengthening down further than expected, which would result in heavier rainfall for Misty Fjords, but bring Ketchikan and Metlakatla out of the bulk of the rain. Furthermore, the warm front pushing northward could extend as far north as the Icy Strait corridor, though stronger solutions will build higher pressure in the northern panhandle, reducing the likelihood of rain. Kept chances around 60-70% for the central panhandle and 30-40% for the Juneau area. Haines and Skagway look to avoid the bulk of the rainfall, with northeasterly winds aloft causing downsloping and drying. Not expecting temperatures overnight to dip below the upper 40s for Haines and Skagway due to downsloping northerlies keeping temperatures relatively warm. While not represented in the forecast at this time, elevated CAPE and shear over the southern panhandle could lead to some extremely isolated, embedded thunderstorms. Likelihood is less than 5% at this time, but strong lift from divergence aloft and terrain could push parcels well above -20C and into lightning territory. .LONG TERM... Tuesday a longwave trough will continue shifting southeast toward the west coast of Canada, carrying a weakening surface low with it. Widespread moderate to heavy rain will also break apart from north to south, leaving a short and welcome break Tuesday. Upstream, zonal flow becomes briefly established over the Gulf, with a signal for a shortwave trough digging down from the south- central coast. These features will carry west-northwest onshore flow and some moisture into our area; however, deep moisture will likely shear apart before reaching the Panhandle, limiting heavy rainfall potential into mid week. Anticipate low clouds and more typical rainfall, with the farthest reaches of the northern Panhandle likely enjoying drier conditions. Near the end of next week ensembles show agreement on a larger system moving into the Gulf, bringing increased chances for heavier rain and elevated southeasterly winds along our coast into the weekend. && .AVIATION.../Through 0z Monday/...Conditions continue to be up and down through Saturday as the remnants of the front over the southern panhandle continues eastward into BC. A majority of the panhandle is now seeing VFR conditions due to the broken nature of the CIGs, though the occasional dips to MVFR are still possible through the evening. Ketchikan and Klawock have held onto MVFR CIGs through much of the day, with periods of heavier rainfall currently bringing VIS down to 3 SM in Ketchikan. Overnight, low VFR conditions are expected to prevail with CIGs sitting around 3000 ft and low scattered layers continuing to filter through. Through Sunday morning, starting around 12z, conditions are expected to begin to decline again as an unseasonably strong front moves into the panhandle. This front is expected to bring periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds throughout much of the panhandle, but will particularly be ramping up for the southern panhandle through the end of the current period. Conditions in the northern panhandle are expected to stay mostly VFR with periods of MVFR as the initial front moves through, while the southern half of the panhandle can expect MVFR to IFR conditions with periods of VIS down to 2 to 4 SM and CIGs as low as 700 ft. Southeasterly winds blowing up through Clarence Strait will be the strongest as this front moves through, so Ketchikan will most likely see gusty winds increase through Sunday evening. Other locations up north may see some blue skies peaking out and sea breezes increasing after the front, but showers may still bring periods of MVFR conditions through Sunday night. && .MARINE... Outer Waters: A low pressure system moving from the Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf this evening will cause a wind shift from southwesterly to southeasterly. Winds will pick up to 15-20 knots and seas will build to 5-6 feet by Sunday morning, affecting ocean entrances and northern outer gulf zones, particularly from Cape Spencer to Cape Suckling. A weak barrier jet along the NE Gulf coast is also expected to intensify briefly early Sunday morning. As the low tracks further south into the Gulf, winds will shift to northeasterly throughout the day Sunday. By Sunday evening, northeasterly winds out of Cross Sound and Southern Chatham Strait are forecast to build to 10-15 knots. From Sunday evening into Monday morning, winds around the Dixon Entrance area will strengthen to 25-30 knots with gusts up to 35 knots, pushing seas to 8 feet. Conditions will ease through the day Monday as winds subside and turn northerly to northwesterly. Inner Channels: Driven primarily by the pressure gradient as the low pressure system approaches the panhandle, winds across the northern inner channels will turn northerly by Sunday morning and strengthen to 15 knots by the afternoon. There is high confidence that elevated winds will impact the Clarence Strait to Sumner Strait region between Sunday evening and late Monday morning, with Clarence Strait seeing gusts up to 30-35 knots through Sunday night. Although model guidance varies, with the NAM favoring a slower, stronger system that pushes higher wind speeds northward into Frederick Sound, while other models keep stronger winds to southern areas, current thinking is that the most significant winds will affect mainly the Sumner Strait southward. Seas in Southern Clarence Strait are forecast to build to 8 feet during the passage of this system before subsiding through Monday as winds diminish. Elsewhere across the inner channels, winds are expected to remain around 5 to 10 knots on Monday generally from the north to northeast. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036. && $$ SHORT TERM...NC LONG TERM...AP AVIATION...ZTK MARINE...BAS Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  980 FXUS64 KEWX 230001 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 701 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 646 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Heat Advisory continues for the northern Hill Country, I-35 Corridor, and Coastal Plains through Sunday. - Isolated showers and storms possible mainly over the northern Hill Country this afternoon. - Hot and dry weather will persist through the upcoming week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 117 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Mid and upper level high pressure centered over the southern U.S. Rockies will remain the dominant weather feature to influence the weather pattern across south central Texas. The will result in continued above normal temperatures across south central Texas. The Heat Advisory continues through Sunday evening. We will keep a low chance (20%) for an isolated shower or storm across portions of the northern Hill Country (mainly Llano and Burnet Counties) through this afternoon as daytime heating along with a nearby mid- level Theta-E ridge axis could be enough to help initiate some isolated convection this afternoon. If these isolated cells manage to develop, some gusty winds will be in store given the high-based nature of the convection. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 117 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 For much of the upcoming week, mid and upper level high pressure remains anchored over the southern Rockies into northern Mexico. Time series plots of model derived 850 mb temperatures show little change through the week. Based on the current guidance, we may need to extend the current Heat Advisory further in time if models continue to remain consistent. High temperatures will likely remain in the upper 90s to near 106 degrees along with overnight lows in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are forecast for all area sites through this cycle. Southerly winds are likely to persist for most of the time frame, however, overnight, winds could become more southwesterly and lighter. Wind speeds during the day on Sunday are forecast to range 5 to 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 80 104 78 104 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 79 104 78 104 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 77 103 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 77 103 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 78 104 77 103 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 80 104 78 104 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 76 103 73 102 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 77 103 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 104 76 103 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 78 103 76 103 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 77 105 76 103 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ171>173-187-189>194- 204>209-219>225. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...17  144 FXUS64 KMEG 230004 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 704 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 704 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Strong-to-severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds and large hail as the primary threats. - Shower and thunderstorm chances remain elevated through midweek, effectively limiting the potential for extreme heat across the region. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Two MCSs are ongoing as of 11 AM, one in eastern Kansas and the other in eastern Oklahoma. The system in eastern Oklahoma is likely to weaken/dip south and miss the Mid-South, but the Kansas system track is likely to skirt across the region. Showers and thunderstorms threatening damaging winds and large hail will accompany this system this afternoon and evening. Inverted-V model soundings increase confidence in the damaging wind threat. Mid-level lapse rates around 7C/km, combined with a bit of dry air, will support hail growth as well, which is well represented by the Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather. Much of the 12z CAM guidance favors this afternoon between 3-10 PM as the most likely timing for severe thunderstorm development. As northwest flow aloft continues, the Mid-South is susceptible to systems threatening damaging wind and hail each day through at least midweek. Timing and placement will be refined as convective evolution becomes clearer. Due to the potential for storms each day, this does keep temperatures on the 'cooler side' with seasonal temperatures (low to mid 90s) instead of the extreme heat we have experienced thus far. Probabilities for heat index values above 105F are generally less than 20% through the work week, with some local hot spots in the Delta Region. Confidence is highest in this pattern sticking around through at least Wednesday. Confidence in the synoptic pattern decreases significantly beyond Wednesday due to model divergence. Be sure to monitor the forecast this week, especially if you have outdoor afternoon plans! DNM && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 704 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 TSRA will mainly affect north MS and the TUP area through midevening. Main concern overnight will be fog potential at MKL. at 00Z, KNQA radar showed a ducting path to the east, indicative of a moist low level inversion. Once high clouds clear from the TSRA to the south, conditions will be favorable for fog formation to the east of MEM. Will reevaluate TUP for fog potential after storms exit NE MS. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A weak cold front has cleared the region and dropped relative humidity values into the lower 40 percent range across areas along and west of the Mississippi River, with this drier air filtering across the majority of the Mid-South. However, light surface winds, daily rain chances, and adequate overall moisture will keep critical fire weather concerns safely at bay. The combination of light overnight winds and clear skies will also create a potential for patchy fog during the early morning hours, particularly along low-lying river basins. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...PWB  123 FXUS66 KPQR 230004 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 144 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Updated Marine Discussion .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure moving over the area will send a weak cold front through the area tonight. Expect near average daytime highs through the week. Ridging builds back into the area early next week, increasing temperatures back into the mid to upper 80s across the interior lowlands. && .DISCUSSION...Tonight through Friday...An upper level trough will continue to progress northeast tonight, sending a weak cold front through the area. As the low moves further inland, zonal flow aloft will develop on Sunday. Zonal flow will maintain seasonal temperatures across the forecast area. Looking ahead through the early next week, ensemble clusters favor ridging over the central CONUS which will spread into the PacNW. As the ridge builds over the area, warmer temperature are expected to return Monday and Tuesday. There remains some uncertainly as to how warm the start of next week will be as the 10th-90th percentiles for daytime highs range from the mid 80s to low 90s for the interior lowlands on Monday and Tuesday. Clusters favor another trough influencing the region by mid-week but exact timing and upper level pattern are uncertain but onshore flow and seasonable or below average temperatures would be favored. When looking at Wednesday and Thursday, the 10th-90th percentiles range from the low 70s to low 80s. There is also no clear signal for any precipitation associated with the mid week trough. approximately 15-25% of members show very light rain possible during the Thursday-Friday timeframe but nothing significant at this time. /42-19 && .AVIATION...An upper-level low currently offshore continues moving north/northeast. This low has resulted in a mixture of MVFR and VFR conditions along with southerly winds across the airspace. Southerly winds are expected to persist, with the MVFR/VFR mixture inland continuing to slowly improve to predominately VFR conditions for all inland locations. These VFR conditions inland are expected to persist through at least 04Z-06Z Sunday. Afterwards, MVFR conditions are expected to return across all inland locations. Coastal locations will maintain generally MVFR conditions through the TAF period. There is a low probability (10-20%) that brief periods of VFR conditions will continue to occur along the coast from through 00Z Sunday. Gusts approaching 25 kt expected along the coast through around 06Z Sunday. KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR conditions will improve towards VFR through 22Z Saturday. Southerly winds expected to persist through the TAF period. Around 05Z-08Z MVFR conditions are expected to return and persist through the remainder of the TAF period. /42 && .MARINE...South to southwest winds continue through tonight as a low pressure system moves over the northeast Pacific. High pressure and northerly winds return by Sunday, with a 40-70% chance for northerly wind gusts up to 25 kt in the evening and continuing into Monday. Seas of 4-6 ft persist through the period. /42 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  142 FXUS66 KPQR 230004 AAB AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 504 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Updated Marine Discussion .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure moving over the area will send a weak cold front through the area tonight. Expect near average daytime highs through the week. Ridging builds back into the area early next week, increasing temperatures back into the mid to upper 80s across the interior lowlands. && .DISCUSSION...Tonight through Friday...An upper level trough will continue to progress northeast tonight, sending a weak cold front through the area. As the low moves further inland, zonal flow aloft will develop on Sunday. Zonal flow will maintain seasonal temperatures across the forecast area. Looking ahead through the early next week, ensemble clusters favor ridging over the central CONUS which will spread into the PacNW. As the ridge builds over the area, warmer temperature are expected to return Monday and Tuesday. There remains some uncertainly as to how warm the start of next week will be as the 10th-90th percentiles for daytime highs range from the mid 80s to low 90s for the interior lowlands on Monday and Tuesday. Clusters favor another trough influencing the region by mid-week but exact timing and upper level pattern are uncertain but onshore flow and seasonable or below average temperatures would be favored. When looking at Wednesday and Thursday, the 10th-90th percentiles range from the low 70s to low 80s. There is also no clear signal for any precipitation associated with the mid week trough. approximately 15-25% of members show very light rain possible during the Thursday-Friday timeframe but nothing significant at this time. /42-19 && .AVIATION...An upper-level low currently offshore continues moving north/northeast. This low has resulted in a mixture of MVFR and VFR conditions along with southerly winds across the airspace. Southerly winds are expected to persist, with the MVFR/VFR mixture inland continuing to slowly improve to predominately VFR conditions for all inland locations. These VFR conditions inland are expected to persist through at least 04Z-06Z Sunday. Afterwards, MVFR conditions are expected to return across all inland locations. Coastal locations will maintain generally MVFR conditions through the TAF period. There is a low probability (10-20%) that brief periods of VFR conditions will continue to occur along the coast from through 00Z Sunday. Gusts approaching 25 kt expected along the coast through around 06Z Sunday. KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR conditions will improve towards VFR through 22Z Saturday. Southerly winds expected to persist through the TAF period. Around 05Z-08Z MVFR conditions are expected to return and persist through the remainder of the TAF period. /42 && .MARINE...South to southwest winds continue through tonight as a low pressure system moves over the northeast Pacific. High pressure and northerly winds return by Sunday, with a 40-70% chance for northerly wind gusts up to 25 kt in the evening and continuing into Monday. Seas of 4-6 ft persist through the period. /42 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  262 FXUS62 KMHX 230006 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 806 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation discussion section for 00Z TAF issuance && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Localized severe threat for coastal areas Sun afternoon. Drier inland and northern areas. 2) A thunderstorm risk, some potentially severe, for Mon afternoon for coastal areas again. 3) Perhaps some drier weather for Tue, but then more unsettled pattern may return for mid to late week with sct afternoon showers/storms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Another mid-level shortwave will lift northeastward through the SE and Mid Atlantic on Sunday. With a seabreeze pinned east of Hwy 17, these two features will act in tandem to produce sct thunderstorms Sun afternoon into the evening. Some of these storms may be strong to marginally svr, as 2,600+ J/KG of CAPE and 25-30+ kt of shear will be in place. Have inc pops near the coast to 40-60%, while interior zones are in the 10-20% range. Best chance of svr storms will be east of Hwy 17 stretching from around Richlands to New Bern to Engelhard. With recent heavy rains, a localized flood threat may materialize, as PW's are still in the 90th or higher percentile range. KEY MESSAGE 2...Similar setup for Mon, as area is on east side of broad level troughing with yet more shortwave energy swinging through and front hung up near the coast interacting with afternoon seabreeze. EFI for CAPE/Shear is around the 80th percentile, suggesting a severe risk if storms can develop and organize. Best chances again for eastern zones. KEY MESSAGE 3...An anomalously strong upper level trough is forecast to translate east and finally move offshore by Tue but then dampen with return of sswrly flow and moisture off the GOM. This will bring more unsettled wx back to ENC in the form of showers and storms with pops back into the 40-60% range, peaking in the afternoon to early evening. Temps will be back to slightly above climo, esp for the overnight periods as warm/humid airmass will be in place. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecast confidence is low to moderate with respect to IFR/LIFR fg or low stratus tonight. Consistent calm winds may be hard to come by tonight, so fog threat is a slight bit lower, reflected in the most recent TAFs. Still, low stratus remains possible for all terminals, with the best chance west of hwy 17 (PGV, ISO, OAJ). Any fog or low stratus will dissipate in the morning, leading to VFR conditions again. Some showers and storms possible in the afternoon, esp OAJ and EWN and have added prob30s to TAFs to handle this. Outlook (Sun night through Thu): Mainly VFR, though patchy fog/low stratus may develop each night. More unsettled weather returns for Wed into late week, with tempo reductions in cigs and vsby. && .MARINE... Ocnl tsra will ride up over the Gulf Stream tonight, producing locally strong winds and frequent lightning. Otherwise, swrly winds remain in the 5-15 kt range with seas of 2-4 ft through Sunday. Outlook (Sun night through Thu): Cont wrly to swrly winds expected through next week, but speeds will cont in the 5-15 kt range through next week with seas no higher than 2-3 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TL AVIATION...TL/RJ MARINE...TL  410 FXUS61 KCTP 230009 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 809 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Severe thunderstorm watch in effect for the NW counties through 9 PM. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Strong to severe thunderstorms will roll into the west late this afternoon and evening. 2) Cold front will pass tonight cooling things off, and cooler air aloft under deep upper low will set up an unstable airmass for Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Strong to severe thunderstorms will roll into the west late this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for the 3 MW counties in CTP's CWA. Thinking is that the intitial batch/cluster of storms in OH will move slowly and not arrive in Warren Co until 5 PM (21Z) or later. The watch may need to be expanded a little to the east, and even extended a little in time (esp if it is expanded) past the current exp time of 9 PM (01Z). The main severe threat today is damaging wind gusts. But, the initial storms/clusters may have some rotation to them. Certainly worth monitoring the rainfall across tha area if the storms stay slow-moving. But, the wind field looks more linear/progressive as the night goes along. FFG in that area is 1.5-1.7"/1 hr. Not high, but also not all that low. ----------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Cold front will pass tonight cooling things off, and cooler air aloft under deep upper low will set up an unstable airmass for Sunday and Monday. The first batch of storms are ahead of the main cold front which is being driven SE by a digging/deepening upper low to our NW. The front will pass through late this evening in the NW and before morning in the SE. Thunder will continue to be possible overnight as the initial storms and then the front (with any additional storms) roll through. However, the loss of daytime instability and generally poorer severe components will cause the weakening of the storms to sub-severe levels. Expect some drying to occur overnight with dewpoints lowering slightly over the NW half of the CWA. If we get some clearing, the ambient moisture will help make fog again tonight. Temps aloft will cool substantially. Even at 8H, temps will drop 10C over the next 30hrs. The resulting instability, especially during the afternoon heating, will result in numerous SHRA/TSRA. The most-favorable conditions will be across the nrn half of the CWA Sunday where SPC has a MRGL risk for severe wind & hail. Maxes only in the 60s and a brisk W wind will make it feel much more like Sept/Oct than mid-Aug. Similar conditions are expected for Monday with the center of the upper low still hanging around our longitude and only moving slowly poleward. The SHRA/TSRA will likely be confined to only the nrn tier of counties in PA on Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Working both shifts today, so 00Z TAF set done largely already earlier this aft (18Z set), so main adjustment for the new set is for timing of showers and storms as of early evening. Back edge to most everything is near the PA, OH border. More information below. Much of the area is VFR as of early aft. Still a bit of lower conditions across the far east. Timing of showers and storms in the 12Z TAF package looks good, so will use it. Best chance for a strong storm is near the across the far northwest part of PA, where higher dewpts are and also closer to the low pressure system. Also a coastal low will keep a chance of shower or perhaps a brief storm over the southeast. For Sunday, went with VCSH at BFD, but dry otherwise, as wind shift line is past our area. Outlook... Mon-Wed...Patchy morning fog, otherwise mainly VFR conditions return early next week. Thu...Chance of showers and storms again. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ017-018-024-025. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo DISCUSSION...Dangelo AVIATION...Martin  670 FXUS62 KCAE 230011 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 811 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated 00z Aviation. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm chances each day into next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm chances each day into next week. Calm weather expected into Sunday with shower and storm activity pivoting east into the coastal plain for the evening with drier and some mid- level subsidence clearing cloud cover out of the Midlands and CSRA. By Sunday, NAEFS mean indicates PWATs will be around the tenth percentile, around an inch, and while can't completely rule out a stray thunderstorm with a strong moisture gradient near the southern portion of the forecast area, expected mostly dry conditions. While isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms will be possible early this week, increasing moisture mid to late week will likely lead to higher coverage of storms each afternoon with LREF probabilities around 50-70% of PWATs, greater than 1.75 inches, Wednesday through the end of the week and weak shortwaves leading to increased forcing. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions expected this evening with some fog-stratus possible early Sunday. Convection has moved east of all TAF sites as of 00z so no additional mentions in the TAFs. Otherwise, generally calm and clear conditions expected overnight into early Sunday. Some fog-stratus is possible around sunrise but confidence is relatively low in restrictions below MVFR. For the remainder of Sunday, a typical summer day is expected with afternoon cu and isolated thunderstorms with low confidence in timing or TAF site impacts at this time. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated storms each afternoon with higher coverage of storms expected by midweek. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...42 AVIATION...42  836 FXUS64 KJAN 230012 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 712 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous heat stress is expected across portions of the forecast area over the next several days. - Isolated to scattered severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Highway 82 corridor this evening into early tonight. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 712 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Rest of tonight... Unsettled pattern remains on track across the region. Storms have developed along shortwave diving southeast into the MS River corridor. This is tapping into deep unstable environment and deep layer shear of 25-35kts is driving robust convection into the Mid South region to just into north MS. Based on the overall southeast propagation and coordination with SPC and local offices, the severe thunderstorm watch was expanded eastward to the MS/AL border. These areas in the Golden Triangle could see some storm potential over the next couple of hours. The watch continues through 10PM. Some showers and storms will persist into the evening to overnight hours, but any robust convection that makes it in will mostly wind down before midnight. Heat and humidity is somewhat improving but still have a large portion of heat indices in excess of 95-100F degrees and temperatures still hovering above 90-95F degrees. Heat advisory continues through 8PM with additional heat concerns into Sunday. Lows will remain seasonably warm (70-75F). Updates are out. /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 This afternoon through Monday: Another hot afternoon is expected as dangerous heat conditions continue across the region. Highs in the upper 90s/near 100 degrees with heat indices between 105-110F west of I-55. A Heat Advisory will remain in effect until this evening. In addition to hot conditions, a disturbance from the Central Plains will push through late this afternoon. Combining with daytime heating to provide thunderstorm chances north of I-20. A Slight (2 out of 5) risk for severe weather for extreme northwest MS (Bolivar, Sunflower, Leflore,and Grenada counties) and a marginal (1 out of 5) risk north of I-20. Primary hazard of concern will be damaging wind gusts. Persistent hot/humid conditions will continue Sunday. Dangerous heat conditions is expected with greatest heat stress over the southwest where heat indices reach 110 degrees are expected. Another heat advisory will be issued on Sunday for all of our northeast LA parishes and portions of southwest/west/central/southeast MS. A weak frontal boundary will push southward, briefly "cooling" temps to the lower 90s with heat indices near 105 for Monday. Tuesday through Saturday: High pressure will retrograde towards the Southwest CONUS with a trough axis setting up across the Southern CONUS. As a result, northwest flow across the area will allow a few weak disturbances to increase afternoon rain chances throughout the week. Heat and humidity will be on the rebound as heat indices begin to increase to 110 degrees west of I-55. Heat headlines and advisories will likely be needed as the week progress. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 712 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR flight conditions prevail through the period. TSRA may sneak into the Highway 82 corridor between 23/01-03Z Sunday and SHRA persist a few more hours. Low flight restrictions to IFR/LIFR visibility and damaging wind gusts (30-50mph). Winds will be light and variable tonight and northerly (sustained/gusts under 10mph) into Sunday. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 75 99 74 91 / 10 10 50 70 Meridian 74 98 73 91 / 10 10 50 60 Vicksburg 74 97 75 91 / 10 20 40 60 Hattiesburg 74 99 75 93 / 0 30 30 60 Natchez 75 100 76 95 / 0 10 20 40 Greenville 73 98 73 91 / 40 10 40 70 Greenwood 72 96 72 89 / 40 10 40 70 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025- 034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>064-072. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ018-019-025- 034>036-040>043-047>049-053>066-072>074. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ007>009-015- 016-023>026. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ074-075. && $$ DC/EC/DC  838 FXUS65 KSLC 230012 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 612 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 135 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026... - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall across most of the region through the weekend. - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe thunderstorms across portions of northwestern Utah today. There is a 5-10% chance of wind gusts in excess of 58 mph in this area through the evening. - A Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe thunderstorms is outlooked for Sunday afternoon and evening across much of northern Utah. There is a 10% chance of wind gusts in excess of 70 mph with these thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 135 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026... Increased moisture across the region will support thunderstorms capable of heavy rainfall rates. With relatively slow storm motions today, already seeing convection anchored on terrain training in locations and producing localized flooding of small streams and dry washes. Will need to continue to monitor central and southern Utah through the evening as rainfall rates in excess of 0.50-0.75 inches per hour have been observed. The most prone locations will be slot canyons, normally dry washes, slick rock areas, areas with poor drainage and of course the numerous recent burn scars across the region. Across northwestern Utah, CAMS suggest the threat of strong to severe microburst winds. One inhibiting factor will be the mid- morning to early afternoon convection that moved across northwestern Utah. This likely stabilized the atmosphere a bit...and additional convective potential may be suppressed for several hours. While earlier runs of the HRRR showed significant wind gusts impacting northwestern Utah and perhaps the Wasatch Front in the 21Z-02Z timeframe, later runs have largely shifted away from this solution. Mesoanalysis correlates a fair amount of inhibition...and guidance suggests this CIN may not be overcome by the end of peak heating. Sunday looks to be a potentially interesting day convection-wise. A weak area of convergence associated with a Pacific trough will shift into northwestern Utah. Mean HREF SBCAPE values will near 1000 J/kg across much of northern Utah by noon to 1 PM. This combined with deep layer shear around 25-30 kts and general synoptic scale lift will support convective development across much of Utah after noon. The most intense convection will likely be across northern Utah. HREF suggests a neighborhood probability of wind gusts in excess of 55 mph around 15-25%, especially near and west of the Great Salt Lake, and 10% or so in excess of 60 mph. The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked this area with a slight risk (level 2/5) for Sunday afternoon and evening including the Wasatch Front. Across central and southern Utah, another day of thunderstorms with the threat of heavy rainfall is expected. Peak rainfall rates in guidance are notably lower than Saturday, correlating well with a net drying trend. That said, the threat of at least isolated flash flooding in the most prone locations will continue Sunday afternoon and evening, especially across central and southern Utah. The Pacific trough will finally shift into the northern High Plains, shifting any large scale forcing for convection to the east. Given there wasn't a front to sweep out the low-level moisture in the low desert areas, expect the threat of isolated flash flooding to persist in any areas that develop convection through at least Monday...if not longer. && .AVIATION... KSLC...There remains a 30% chance for thunderstorms impacting the terminal through 03Z. Frequent lightning and gusty outflow winds in excess of 30 kts will be possible with any storms passing near theterminal. The chance for thunderstorms will decrease to 10% after 03Z, with southerly drainage winds becoming established by 06Z. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period with another chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming through the evening, accompanied by frequent lightning and gusty outflow winds in excess of 30 kts. Visibility will be reduced into the MVFR range with stronger storms. The chance for thunderstorms overnight will decrease to 10%. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with additional showers and thunderstorms developing across the region after 18Z Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER, Issued 135 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026... Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will become more isolated through early Monday, and largely tied to terrain. Any showers and thunderstorms this weekend will have the threat of strong, gusty microburst winds. Over the work-week, valley humidities will fall slowly each day, reaching near critical to critical levels as early as Monday. There is little sign of an additional monsoon surge after this weekend until after the next weekend. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC... AVIATION...Seaman FIRE WEATHER... For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  971 FXUS65 KRIW 230015 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 615 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will continue until midnight. Main threats are locally heavy rain, wind gusts around 50 mph, and frequent lightning. Small hail is possible as well. - The chance of showers and storms lingers through much of the week, although today looks the most active. - Temperatures will generally stay about 5 to 10 degrees above normal this upcoming week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 No real changes to the short term forecast. Rain shower activity been near spot on in relation to HiRes data, especially the trusty NAMNest as per usual. Storm activity has been limited to about nothing due to the continued cloud cover depicted on IR. As a result, severe weather is looking less likely for eastern counties after 4PM. However, storm development looks to still occur through 8PM this evening forming a line that will produce some stronger outflows up to 50 mph (50-60%). Otherwise, instability just won't be there for much, if any, hail. No flooding issues with this progressive pattern. Storms again push out of northeastern Idaho into Yellowstone towards sunset for a couple hours towards midnight before exiting into Montana. Time of day and continued cloud cover limit the instability and any stronger storms. More isolated than scattered for Sunday compared to Saturday. Temperatures for Saturday afternoon will be bumped a bit down not taking into account the cloud cover limiting solar radiation, but a bit more sun for Sunday. Long term forecast is what it is, no changes at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The monsoon has once again arrived across the area, I believe this is the third or fourth appearance so far. So far, it has behaved. We do have some light showers across mainly the western half of the area but nothing heavy so far. The main concern in the forecast will be the potential for heavy rain and possible strong thunderstorms today. Right now, in this meteorologists opinion, potential is mixed for if we will see widespread of either. In regards to heavy rain, the main factor will be the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. Dew points have been slow to rise so far, but they should this afternoon, rising into the 50s in portions of the Big Horn Basin as well as Johnson and Natrona Counties. Precipitable water values should also be rather high. The GFS, for example, has precipitable water values about 175 to 200 percent of normal. This had been overdone by around 15 to 20 percent the past few events though. Even with this, precipitable water values over 150 percent of normal look fairly likely. There will also be some forcing in the form of a shortwave moving in from the west. This should enhance chances for all areas, so everyone will have a chance. The best chance still looks to be in northwestern Wyoming, generally a 1 in 2 chance, and there is decent model agreement in this. As for severe thunderstorms, there looks to be a decent amount of instability. This is especially so in the favored portions of our area, mainly East of the Bighorn Range in Johnson and Natrona Counties. Lifted indices fall as low as minus 4 to minus 5 with close to 1500 J/Kg of surface CAPE here. There is also a decent amount of directional shear in this area. This, plus the ample moisture, may increase the hail threat in this area. We do have a marginal risk of severe weather in portions of Johnson and Natrona Counties, and this could be expanded westward with the 13Z update. All areas could have a thunderstorm but with less instability and shear most storms would be sub severe. However, there are some factors against possible hazards. In regards to flooding and thunderstorms, it is cloud cover. Much of the area, especially western Wyoming, is covered by clouds as I write this around midnight. If it stays mostly cloudy for much of the day, this could limit instability somewhat and decrease the chance of stronger thunderstorms. There will likely be some areas that will be sunnier though, especially further east. And there is one more mitigating factor for heavy rain and possible flooding. With the shortwave moving through, there will be some steering flow today. It won't be strong, but most areas will have 15 to 25 knots at 500 millibars which should keep storms moving somewhat. We continue to have a marginal risk of excessive rainfall, and persistent storms could still cause flooding. But it may decrease the chance somewhat. The shortwave should clear the area by midnight, but some showers will likely linger through the night. As for temperatures, more cloud cover should lower them around 5 to 8 degrees, but it will still be above normal for almost all areas. The forecast from Sunday through much of next week looks fairly similar. We will remain on the edge of the ridge. Some monsoonal moisture will stick around, with precipitable water values remaining above average through much of the period. However, they do look lower than today, so the chance of convection should be somewhat lower. Most guidance favors western Wyoming at this time. However, given the poor performance of the models in regards to timing and placement of the showers and storms, confidence in the details remains low. Temperatures will also cool off somewhat, back down to near to just slightly above normal levels for late August. There continue to be some indications of drier air moving in for the end of next week or next weekend, possibly shutting off the monsoon and bring a period of warm, but not really hot weather for the end of August. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 350 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Lingering showers and thunderstorms diminish through about 08z tonight. Gusty outflow winds are the main hazard with this convection. Otherwise, lighter prevailing winds overnight with a partly cloudy sky. Winds increase by late Sunday morning, with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Lowe DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Wittmann  059 FXUS61 KAKQ 230016 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 816 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation section for 00z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers and some embedded thunderstorms expected today. Isolated instances of flooding possible at the coast and isolated severe weather possible for western counties. 2) Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection returns by the middle to latter part of the week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 230 PM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers and some embedded thunderstorms expected today. Isolated instances of flooding possible at the coast and isolated severe weather possible for western counties. A quasi-stationary boundary with weak low pressure along it is still located just south of the area as of mid-day surface analysis. A cold front is approaching the Appalachian region. Aloft, a trough axis is located just to the west, placing the FA under SW flow. Radar trends have been interesting today. Due to conflicting flows at the surface and in the mid/upper levels, showers have been nearly stationary. Luckily, these have been mostly limited to over the marine areas, so flood advisories and warnings have not been necessary so far. There is also enough shear to support rotation in one of the storms over the Ches Bay, which resulted in an SMW. Additional isolated showers are starting to pop up over coastal land areas, though. With little to no movement, PWATs climbing toward 2", and instability sitting at ~1000 J/kg, flash flooding could still be a threat where these showers pop up. Based on the HREF/REFS outputs, the highest threat may be on the Eastern Shore once the sfc front slides northeast and those existing showers finally drift east. This thinking lines up well with the updated Day 1 ERO that trimmed the Slight Risk (level 2/4) to just the Eastern Shore. These showers (and a few rumbles of thunder) will likely persist into this evening until the incoming cold front kicks them out. Speaking of the cold front, it will likely sweep through the local area during the overnight hours. Additional showers/storms will be possible with the front, particularly across the piedmont and northern counties. The 12z HREF indicates that 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE along with 25-30kt of shear should linger long enough into the evening to support a couple of stronger storms. The SPC did expand the Marginal risk for severe weather into the western counties to cover this. Damaging wind gusts is the primary threat. Timing looks to be 8p-12a. KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection returns by the middle to latter part of the week. The weak front will finally move offshore late Sunday, as the main upper level trough axis shifts offshore and surface high pressure builds into the SE CONUS. The surface high will usher in a drier airmass with seasonable temperatures in the 80s and dew points in the 60s Sunday. A reinforcing intrusion of dry air is likely Monday/ Tuesday with dew points in the 50s looking likely (except 60s far SE). Unsettled conditions and isolated- scattered aftn/evening convection returning mid to late week as the sfc high breaks down. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 815 PM EDT Saturday... A cold front sweeps through the area later tonight into Sunday morning. Another round of showers and storms likely impacts RIC and potentially SBY later this evening into tonight, bringing the potential for brief MVFR to IFR VSBYs. Patchy fog is possible inland late tonight due to light winds and lingering low level moistureDry/VFR conditions return to all areas by 13z Sunday morning, with mainly SKC skies. Outlook: Drying out as high pressure fills in. Dry and prevailing VFR conditions expected through the early week period. && .MARINE... As of 125 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Generally benign marine conditions are expected through the weekend into early next week. - Showers and occasional thunderstorms are expected today, with diminishing chances of showers and thunderstorms Sunday into early next week. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail this weekend through much of next week. A weak surface trough remains centered along the coast today. Meanwhile, a larger trough moves in from the west late today into tonight. Scattered showers and storms have developed along the first trough over the Ches Bay and are expected to continue through this afternoon. Additional showers/storms are possible with the second trough this evening. Winds this afternoon were SE 5-10 kt for most of the local waters with locally stronger winds of 10-15 kt across the middle Ches Bay. A few gusts up to 20 kt are possible across the Ches Bay through tonight, however, confidence in frequent gusts to 20 kt is too low to issue SCAs at this time. Otherwise, a warm front slowly lifts north later today into tonight, allowing winds to become SW 10-15 kt behind the front tonight. A cold front slowly pushes across the local waters Sun with high pressure building in behind it. As such, winds become light and variable Sun. Another weak cold front crosses the coast early Mon with a brief wind shift to NW, before becoming variable with speeds remaining less than 10kt. Yet another weak cold front crosses the coast early Tue, resulting in a brief wind shift to N/NNE. High pressure settles off the Southeast coast from mid to late week, resulting in SE-SW flow at or below 15kt. Seas of 2-3 ft continue through the week with predominant seas of only around 2 ft. Meanwhile, waves remain 1 ft to occasionally 2 ft waves in the Ches Bay. A low rip risk will be maintained through Tue. Will note that while winds become onshore Tue, nearshore seas remain only around 1-2 ft which should limit the rip current risk. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AC/SW AVIATION...AJB/AC MARINE...RMM  029 FXUS61 KILN 230016 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 816 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for our far eastern counties. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening as a cold front moves through. Some severe storms are possible. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Scattered storms will increase in coverage this afternoon ahead of a cold front. SBCAPE values near 2000 J/kg will support some tall updrafts that may produce some strong to damaging wind gusts. Additionally, freezing levels near 11,000 ft will allow for at least some small hail to develop in several of these storms. Marginally severe hail near 1" certainly possible with the tallest storms, but that threat will be more limited. The severe threat will gradually taper from west to east this evening, ending by 7-8 PM for our CWA. Note that these storms will be capable of brief heavy downpours as well. However, the environment is such that storm motion will be more progressive, which will help limit some of the hydro concerns. However, if a location where to receive multiple rounds of heavy downpours or had some brief backbuilding, minor flooding issues may ensue. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface cold front and pushed east of the TAF sites and any lingering instability will continue to diminish. A brief period of gusty winds to near 20 kts will affect the central Ohio TAF sites for the next hour and then diminish to less than 10 kts with sunset. Some of the guidance is reducing vsbys to IFR restrictions at KLUK due to river fog overnight. At this time have opted for MVFR restrictions but will monitor trends. Any fog will improve quickly Sunday morning. Forecast soundings show a good signal for VFR cumulus Sunday afternoon. Northwest winds will increase to 10 to 12 kts with gusts up to 20 kts during the afternoon. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Clark AVIATION...AR  081 FXUS64 KBMX 230016 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 716 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026 - Heat: Minor to moderate heat risk will continue through the next week. Heat indices are forecast to remain below 105 degrees. - Storms: There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms across northwestern portions of Central Alabama this evening. Strong winds and heavy rainfall are the primary threats. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026 Water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper level trough progressing across the eastern CONUS as an upper ridge builds in across the west. Drier air is beginning to work into the region with PWATs down to around 1.2" per the latest GOES TPW. This dry air combined with increasing subsidence will help promote mostly dry conditions through the weekend. With that said, several CAMs bring a line of convection into the state during the evening hours as a trailing shortwave rotates along the western periphery of the trough axis. Greatest chances will be across our northwestern counties, generally after 7 PM through early Sunday morning. Primary threats with this activity will be strong winds and heavy rainfall. As a result, SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe storms. After a brief lull in activity on Sunday, an active pattern returns next week as several shortwaves rotate between a ridge parked out to our west and a trough to our northeast. A stalled boundary along the Gulf coast will gradually lift north through the week, leading to increasing moisture across the southeast. By mid week, another upper trough deepens across the Great Lakes region while sending a cold front into Central Alabama sometime Thursday into Friday. As a result, we will see low to moderate (30-60%) chances for showers and storms at times through the work week. High temperatures this weekend will settle into the low to mid 90s for most. Drier air will help keep heat indices in check, generally 95-102 degrees. Increasing rain chances and cloud cover next week will help trim off a few degrees with highs in the upper 80s at times. Continued humid conditions will warrant a low to moderate heat risk for most through the next week. 95/Castillo && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected outside of any convection. There is currently strong TSRA activity across N MS moving SEWD toward AL ahead of a surface boundary. Not confident enough ATTM of activity holding together to add to NRN TAFs (TCL/BHM/EET) as they should decrease as they approach. Will be monitoring closely for any needed amendments for TS. Otherwise, could see convection across the SRN areas Sunday afternoon with heating as boundary moves SEWD into state, so I have PROB30s for MGM/AUO after 21z. Outside of storms, winds should be light/variable tonight and WNW-NW 4-8kts with mixing on Sunday. Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage, and AMD LTD TO CLD AND WIND for EET due to a visibility sensor outage. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air filtering into the area will result in a decrease in relative humidity (35 to 45%) for most locations on Sunday. However, wind speeds are expected to remain light, which should negate any significant fire weather concerns. Moisture gradually begins to return on Monday and into the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 70 92 67 91 / 20 20 10 10 Anniston 70 91 67 89 / 20 20 10 20 Birmingham 73 93 71 90 / 20 20 10 20 Tuscaloosa 73 96 72 91 / 20 20 20 30 Calera 72 94 71 90 / 20 20 20 30 Auburn 72 92 71 88 / 0 30 20 30 Montgomery 73 97 73 93 / 0 30 20 40 Troy 70 97 71 92 / 0 30 20 40 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95/Castillo AVIATION...08  309 FXUS64 KEPZ 230021 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 621 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1026 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain on today. Thunderstorm chances will diminish this weekend as upper level high pressure builds closer to the area. - Above normal temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas through the week ahead. Lowland highs will range upper 90s to 105, which will approach daily records. - Slight chances of thunderstorms return Thursday into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1026 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Upper high centered over New Mexico with fair amount of recycled moisture trapped under the high over the CWA. PWs ranging from .80 to 1.00 inch, with dewpoints in the 40s to 50. A few thunderstorms were able to continue much of the overnight period across northern Dona Ana County to Black Range/Grant County. Those thunderstorms/ showers have mostly ended at this time but debris clouds will persist for a few hours. Expect slight chance of mountain thunderstorms again this afternoon from around noon to 6-7 pm. As mentioned above, debris clouds lingering over the Black Range may delay thunderstorm development a few hours in that area. Sunday through Wednesday...upper high nearly stationary over New Mexico but slowly drifts toward the Arizona border. Little chance of thunderstorms but always a non-zero chance of an isolated thunderstorm over the mountains. Temperatures will remain very warm/hot with high temps each ranging from around 98 to 105; approaching late August record high temperatures. Temperatures may approach Heat Advisory for the El Paso/lower valley zones. Thursday into the weekend...upper high drifts into eastern Arizona, bringing a more northerly flow pattern over the CWA. So a return of low POPs is warranted for the mountains. Can't rule out a lowland storm or two also, mainly over Otero, Sierra and northern Dona Ana Counties, though this isn't reflected in the grids at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Upper level high pressure continues to control our weather (and will continue to control our weather for the next 7 days) which means not a lot of clouds and not a lot of winds. Our ceilings will be unlimited tonight and we will continue to see unlimited ceilings on Sunday. There are some low end gusty winds this afternoon across the region, but those wind gusts will drop off in the next few hours. We will have light winds tonight and mainly light winds tomorrow. KTCS may see some low end wind gusts for a few hours much like today. Overall VFR conditions expect for the next 24 hours (and beyond). && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1026 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Fire weather concerns should remain low through the coming week. Temperatures will remain quite warm, near record levels for much of this time. This combined with low humidities will allow fuels to dry out some, but no significant winds are expected through the forecast period. A few mountain thunderstorms are possible this afternoon but then the chances shrink Sunday through Wednesday. Upper high drifting off to the west Thursday and beyond will bring slight chances of thunderstorms back to the mountain zones. Min RH: Lowlands 10-15% through Wednesday, increasing to 12-18% Thursday and Friday. Gila/Black Range Mountains...15-25% through Friday. Sacramento/Capitan Mountains...20-35% through Friday. Vent rates good-very good through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 101 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 68 97 68 99 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces70 100 68 101 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 68 99 69 101 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 53 77 53 78 / 0 0 0 10 Truth or Consequences 71 99 71 101 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 65 93 65 95 / 10 0 10 10 Deming 71 100 69 102 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 72 100 70 100 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 77 101 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 70 100 70 102 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 74 104 74 106 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 69 95 70 97 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 73 101 72 102 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 73 100 71 102 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 75 101 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 69 99 67 102 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 69 102 67 103 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 73 100 72 102 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 68 99 66 100 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 58 90 59 92 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 57 88 57 90 / 0 0 0 10 Timberon 56 86 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 61 90 62 92 / 20 10 10 0 Hillsboro 70 98 69 99 / 10 0 0 0 Spaceport 68 99 65 101 / 10 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 58 92 59 93 / 20 0 10 20 Hurley 67 96 66 97 / 10 0 0 0 Cliff 65 101 68 101 / 20 0 10 10 Mule Creek 62 97 63 97 / 20 0 10 10 Faywood 69 95 68 97 / 10 0 0 0 Animas 71 100 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 70 99 69 99 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 69 99 68 99 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 67 94 65 94 / 0 0 0 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...15-Brice  978 FXUS61 KRNK 230032 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 832 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated PoPs for progression of the front toward the area. Aviation Forecast Updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front will continue pushing toward the region this evening along with its associated round of scattered showers and thunderstorms, both in advance of an current to the front. 2) Drier cooler weather returns tomorrow and continues into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front will continue pushing toward the region this evening along with its associated round of scattered showers and thunderstorms, both in advance of an current to the front. A cold front will continue its progression toward the area along with its associated showers and storms both in advance and concurrent to the front. The bulk of the first round of activity will be near and east of a Pilot Mountain, NC to a City of Lexington, VA line the remainder of this evening. When the front crosses later tonight, primarily western sections will see some showers and perhaps a storm.Behind the front, winds will transition to northwesterly as surface high pressure builds into the region. This will bring gusty winds during the overnight hours to the area, which will linger through the mid morning hours on Sunday. KEY MESSAGE 2: Drier cooler weather returns Sunday and continues into early next week. Behind the frontal passage on Sunday, surface high pressure ejecting southeastward out of Canada will inject cooler and drier air into the region on Sunday. This will lead to initially cloudy conditions across upslope regions in the mountains, but should quickly clear out by the mid morning and early afternoon hours on Sunday. Mostly clear skies with no rain chances are expected through Tuesday, with isolated to scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms returning to the area by the middle of next week. More moisture looks to return to the area by Thursday as the high pressure over the region finally breaks down allowing the Bermuda high to take over, which will advect more moisture to the area. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front is making progress towards the region. A line of showers and storms in advance of this feature is currently progressing east of a roughly a KMTV-KLYH line. Conditions across the region were mainly VFR, with shortlived pockets of sub-VFR within the heavier showers/storms. Additional showers/storms will be possible later tonight primarily across western portions of the area with the arrive of the cold front. Behind the front, look for the development of sub-VFR cigs within the upslope region of the mountains which will continue into Sunday morning. Additionally, shortly after the front passes, winds will transition from southerly/southwesterly across the region to northwesterly, with sustained winds of 5-10 knots and gusts of 15-20 knots during the overnight and into the early morning hours. OUTLOOK... Drier airmass situated over the Great Lakes will sink into the area Sunday into early next week. Should be mainly VFR aside from any late night fog, mainly LWB/BCB. Next system appears to bring some chances for storms Wednesday with possibility for sub-VFR cigs/vsbys. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DS/EB AVIATION...DS/EB  235 FXZS60 NSTU 230035 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 135 PM SST Sat Aug 22 2026 .Short term [tonight through Monday night]... A ridge of high pressure centered just north of New Zealand should maintain steady southeasterly trade winds across the American Samoa islands throughout the short term forecast period. These winds are forecast to be breezy at up to 25 mph, but remain just below Wind Advisory threshold (30 mph). Higher gusts may also occur at times. American Samoa is now experiencing Moderate Drought (D1) according to the latest US Drought Monitor, with weekly rainfall totals of less than one inch in four out of the past five weeks and daily rainfall below the climatological average (0.21 inches) each day since August 4. The 00Z RAOB upper-air observation showed a trade wind inversion based near 850 mb, limiting convective cloud growth to a shallow moist layer near the surface. Latest satellite imagery confirms shallow cloud tops, with light and short lived passing showers embedded within the trades. Given the persistent inversion and limited moisture depth that continue to limit rainfall, drier-than-normal conditions are likely to persist throughout the short term forecast period. .Long term [Tuesday through Saturday]... The ridge of high pressure generating the southeasterly trades will shift eastward by mid through late week. This will lead to winds turning more easterly as the high moves to the southeast of the territory. ECMWF and GFS guidance indicate wind speeds decreasing by late Tuesday as this transition occurs. Following the transition into an easterly flow regime, Considerable uncertainty is present regarding the wind speeds and rainfall pattern for the latter half of the week. The exact positioning of the high pressure system and associated pressure gradients will be critical over this period. Model and ensemble guidance generally indicates stronger trade winds east of the territory and weaker winds to the west, but with significant differences in exact positioning. GDPS, UKMET, operational GFS, and GFS ensemble all indicate wind speeds again increasing to near Advisory levels over the latter half of the week. Meanwhile, the ICON, operational ECMWF, and ECMWF ensemble keep winds much more modest in the 10 to 15 mph range, with the stronger winds displaced further east. These differences in the wind pattern will also have a significant impact on rainfall potential. Easterly winds decreasing in speed from east to west creates "speed convergence." Convergence forces air upward which creates more favorable conditions for increased rainfall. UKMET, operational GFS, and GFS ensemble are the most bullish for rainfall potential, depicting the speed convergence creating a surface trough axis near the territory. Meanwhile, other guidance keeps the most significant rainfall activity north and west of the islands. Regardless, increasing atmospheric moisture associated with the transition to easterly winds should at the very least bring more favorable conditions for passing showers. Therefore, expect winds to shift from southeasterly to easterly by midweek, with at least a slight increase in rainfall likely. However, significant uncertainty remains regarding the strength of the easterly winds and the magnitude of the increased rainfall. && .Marine... Observations from the PacIOOS Aunu'u buoy have indicated wave heights ranging from 8 to just over 10 feet since Wednesday night as trade winds developed across the area. Large seas, Advisory level surf, and increased rip current potential should persist and potentially slightly increase through early Tuesday as trade winds remain at a fresh breeze. Marine and surf conditions are expected to at least briefly improve on Tuesday nightas wind speeds temporarily decrease into a gentle to moderate breeze during the aforementioned transition to easterly flow. However, seas will still be choppy at around 7 to 9 feet. Wave and surf heights beyond Tuesday night will be heavily dependent on the aforementioned uncertainty in wind speeds, but are likely to increase at least slightly. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory Small Craft Advisory && $$ Barton  343 FXAK68 PAFC 230037 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 437 PM AKDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Tuesday evening)... Satellite imagery reveals an upper-level trough extending south from Western to Central Alaska down through Southern Alaska. On the east side of this trough, moisture continues to lift up Cook Inlet and northward through the Gulf of Alaska. Rain will continue across the Kenai Peninsula, Prince William Sound, and the western half of Southcentral through tonight. Showers will taper off through tonight into early Sunday morning. Sunday will feature clearer, calmer, and sunnier conditions across much of Southcentral for Sunday. Some showers will work into the northeast portion of the Copper River Basin by Sunday afternoon and evening as an upper-level shortwave moves westward across the area from Yukon, Canada. Highs across Anchorage, Seward, and Kodiak look to reach into the middle 60s for highs Sunday thanks in part to drier northerly flow. Monday will also feature quiet and warm weather across Southcentral. However, clouds will build from west to east across the area ahead of the next system approaching from the west. The ridge responsible for the nice weather across Southcentral Sunday and most of Monday will weaken as flow becomes west-southwest in the middle to upper levels of the atmosphere. Shortwave energy ahead of the main eastward moving trough across the Bering Sea from Kamchatka will begin to move over western portions of Southcentral by late Monday night into Tuesday. Rain will break out across western portions of Southcentral, including the Mat-Su Valleys, the Kenai Peninsula, and Anchorage, by late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Rain picks up in intensity through Tuesday afternoon and evening across Southcentral, even across the Copper River Basin where it has been pretty dry for a while. The main area of lift associated with the Bering Sea trough will move across the area from west to east Tuesday afternoon and evening. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday)... Radar and satellite imagery this morning show the heaviest rainfall associated with the front that brought steady rain overnight across Southwest Alaska progressing east into Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Valley. Behind the front, rain has tapered to showers across the Kuskokwim Delta as gusty northwesterly winds build up through this morning over Nunivak Island, the Kuskokwim Delta, and the eastern Bering. Rain will dissipate from west to east across interior Southwest through tonight as the upper level trough digs south across western Alaska, eventually forming a closed upper low in the western Gulf by Sunday morning. High pressure building in across the Bering behind this system throughout today will help to enhance northwesterly gap winds through favored gaps and passes on the Pacific side of the northern Alaska Peninsula this afternoon through tonight. The patterns continues to remain progressive as attention then shifts farther upstream in the western Bering. By tonight through Sunday morning, the next round of shortwaves moving east out of Kamchatka and lifting out of the North Pacific interact and phase together, allowing for a surface low to become better organized and strengthen as it tracks northeastward across the Bering for Sunday. As the system develops today, a warm and unstable airmass brings a small chance (10 to 20%) for a few lightning strikes to accompany showers moving over the western Aleutians through early this afternoon. As the surface low and associated upper-level circulation become better organized and strengthens on Sunday across the western Bering, Southwest Alaska will get a short break in the weather as the ridge pushes east. Meanwhile, south to southwesterly small- craft winds pick up across much of the Bering and Aleutians with a small swath of gale-force winds expected across the northern Bering and St. Matthew Island. Light to moderate rainfall pushing east across the Bering reaches the Pribilof Islands Sunday morning before reaching the Southwest coast by Sunday evening. Steady rain continues across all of Southwest Alaska through Monday as a stream of moisture from the North Pacific and a weak shortwave rounding the base of the trough reinforces the front. Gusty onshore winds begin to relax Monday morning as the low pull farther away to the north. The pattern continues to look active and progressive through early next week as additional systems are expected to move into the western Bering. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)... Wednesday, model divergence remains high. Both ECMWF and GFS advertise a low entering the southwestern Bering Sea, however, the EC shows a stronger low moving in, with stronger winds and a precipitation core dragged in from the northern Pacific. The GFS solution is more muted, with a weak low pressure system, loose pressure gradients, favoring weaker winds and lighter precipitation across the Western Aleutians. GFS and EC however are more progressive, bringing the low into the northwestern Bering by Thursday morning, with the Canadian solution lagging the low still in the southwest Bering, over the Western Aleutians. By Friday agreement improves, with increasing consensus that the low moves into the eastern Bering Southwest mainland by Friday afternoon. The low does not slow on its track across Nunivak Island, Kuskokwim Delta, and over greater Bristol Bay by Saturday morning. Widespread small craft advisory winds with smaller areas of gales will dive across the Pribilof Islands late Friday afternoon, and across the western Alaska Peninsula by Saturday morning. && .AVIATION... PANC...A weak Turnagain wind may come into the airport at times this evening but this is a low probability (20%) due to rain and weak pressure gradients. Rain will continue through early this evening before tapering off. High pressure will build in overnight, leading to the possibility of fog and low stratus. The only thing that may hinder this would be higher clouds left behind by the parting trough. && $$  387 FXUS63 KJKL 230039 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 839 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front will bring a possibility of showers and thunderstorms to the area this evening. - Some storms could produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts and hail this evening. - Noticeably cooler and less humid air will arrive behind the cold front to start the new week with dry weather. && .UPDATE... Issued at 838 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 Precip has tapered off with the exception of the far southern and southeaster portions of the forecast area, where there is still a threat of severe weather for a short time yet. The forecast has been updated for the latest trends on radar. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 250 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 At 1845Z, satellite shows a mix of low and mid level clouds. Showers and storms have initiated to the north along a weak disturbance extending from the southern shores of Lake Erie south to the Kentucky-West Virginia line. A cold front approaches eastern Kentucky from the northwest this afternoon, driven by shortwave energy and a deepening long wave upper level trough. As daytime heating aids destabilization, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected from mid-afternoon into early evening. Looking at the 12Z RAP this evening, a representative sounding near JKL depicted an environment with strong surface buoyancy (2400 J/kg), high DCAPE (1000-1100 J/kg), and steep low-level lapse rates (0-3 km lapse rate of 7.2 deg C/km). In addition, 0-6 km bulk shear at 40 kts along with MUCAPE slightly above 2500 J/kg this will help sustain organized updrafts. With BRN shear at 18 m2/s2, the environment as a whole favors multicell clusters with some supercellular elements. High DCAPE along with steep 0-3 km lapse rates, 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear, and the approaching cold front will support damaging gusts of most likely 45-60 mph. Hail will be a secondary hazard, though several limiting factors--such as anemic updrafts from poor mid-level lapse rates (6 deg C/km) and an elevated freezing level (13,000 feet)--may cause substantial melting before reaching the ground. The hodograph remains generally straight up to 200-300 mb (9 km) followed by a directional shift to the NNW, which could eject hail embryos aloft, further limiting hail size. Hail will be isolated and could reach quarter size, but will likely remain smaller. SPC has placed all but Wayne County in a Slight Risk for severe weather. The shortwave progresses east of the CWA later this evening, leading to clearing skies and light winds. Fog should form overnight, with valleys and locations that receive rain favored for dense fog. High pressure builds into the area from the Upper Midwest on Sunday, bringing a mix of sun and clouds along with cooler weather. Dew points dropping into the mid 50s to low 60s will make conditions feel much more comfortable. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 457 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 The long-term period opens with quiet weather Monday morning. The 22/12z model suite analysis shows mean troughing in place across the eastern CONUS around a parent ~558 dam low spinning near/over the Ottawa Valley. A smaller upstream closed ~570 dam low is transiting from southern Alberta into Saskatchewan. Meanwhile, an ~596 dam upper level high is centered near/over New Mexico. Translating down to the surface, an ~1005 mb surface low is nearly vertically stacked under the parent low between James Bay and Lake Ontario. Its cold front sweeps south-southeastward along the Carolina coast and then arcs southwest to west through the Gulf Coast states before extending back northwestward into the central Plains. Cool Canadian high pressure, cradled in the arc of the cold front, extends from northwestern Ontario to over the Commonwealth. Farther upstream, an ~1005 mb surface low is passing over southern Saskatchewan and dragging a trailing cold front through the Northern Rockies and Great Basin. For Monday through Tuesday, heights will gradually rise over the Ohio Valley as the first upper-level trough and its parent low shift away to the northeast and surface high pressure settles southeast, cresting over eastern Kentucky with PWATs close to 0.75 inches. With time, a warm front will try to ease back northward toward the Commonwealth, allowing PWATs to recover back toward 1.5 inches by late Wednesday. However, heights will fall slightly again mid- to late week as the aforementioned closed upper low over the Canadian Prairies digs southeast, opens, and reinforces troughing over the eastern CONUS for the remainder of the work week. This will support the next area of low pressure tracking into eastern Canada while its trailing cold front slides southward into the Ohio Valley Thursday into Friday. Drier weather may follow a second cold front heading into next weekend. In sensible weather terms, look for fair and cool weather through Tuesday night, with lows ranging in the 50s to near 60F and highs in the lower to mid 80s. Fog is likely in the mainstem river valleys late each night through mid-morning. Low to medium precipitation chances in the form of diurnally modulated showers and thunderstorms return on Wednesday and persist through Friday as the first cold front works through the region, before trending drier by Saturday. Look for highs ranging mainly in the mid 80s from Wednesday onward, while nighttime lows moderate into the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 A cold front and disturbance will approach during peak heating and result in isolated to scattered convection between about 18Z and 03Z. Some of the storms could contain strong to damaging wind gusts and some gusts in the 30 to 40KT range if not locally higher are not out of the question. PROB30 groups were included for a few hours at all sites for the potential for thunder on station for a brief period. Any convection could bring brief reductions to IFR if not lower. Winds will generally remain WSW to W at 5 to 10KT between 18Z and 00Z. Winds will trend to the northwest behind the front between 00Z and 06Z and slacken. Some fog development is favored after 06Z and IFR or lower reductions for areas mainly south of KSYM and KIOB are possible per guidance as high pressure builds in behind the front. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GINNICK LONG TERM...GEERTSON AVIATION...GINNICK/JP  357 FXUS66 KLOX 230038 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 538 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION .SYNOPSIS...22/106 PM. Minimal changes expected through the weekend with above normal temperatures. Patchy night and morning low clouds and fog will be confined to coastal areas, mostly north of Point Conception. Additional warming is expected next week with periods of extreme heat in some areas, especially starting Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...22/221 PM. The heat is on. It looks to be a very hot week across southwest California, especially Tuesday and beyond as high pressure aloft builds in from the east onshore gradients start to relax and possibly even turn lightly offshore. Temperatures today are similar or slightly cooler than the last couple days but models are indicating weakening onshore flow this week, especially starting Tuesday while at the same time heights and thicknesses rise due to high pressure building from the heat. In addition, overnight lows will be warming up as well which will limit the amount of recovery. For these reasons a heat advisory has been issued for all non-desert areas south of Pt Conception Sunday through Tuesday morning. At that point models indicate the potential for light to locally moderate offshore flow. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with this part of the equation which is why the heat hazards turn into Extreme Heat Watches Tuesday through Friday. If gradients end up being more onshore then most areas will likely just remain under heat advisories. Current projections indicate around a 30% chance of 110 or higher in the San Fernando Valley and also a 40% chance of 100 or higher in Downtown LA. Winds in most areas are expected relatively light, under 20mph, however there will be some evening sundowners starting Monday evening. For areas north of Pt Conception, temps will be warming there as well but the hottest temps will hold off until Tue or Wed. .LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...22/219 PM. The extreme heat is expected to continue through the week peaking late in the week. As high pressure continues to build the warm air will start to push north along the Central Coast and will likely need to be issuing additional heat advisories and/or warnings for some or all of the area by Wednesday. Projections show around a 10% chance of 100 degrees in SLO Wed-Fri and a 50-70% chance of highs of 105-110 across interior SLO. In addition, hot Sundowners will be peaking Tuesday and Wednesday evenings across the Santa Ynez Range with strong gusts and temperatures in the 90s and lower 100s likely. Farther south the heat will just get worse later next week with some coastal valleys as high as 113 by Friday and a 20-40% chance of highs 100 or higher in Downtown LA and Camarillo. Some cooling expected to start next Saturday but still at least 6-12 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION...23/0036Z. At 2249Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 2100 feet with a temperature of 30 C. High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KSBA, KPMD, KWJF, KBUR, KVNY, KOXR, KCMA, & KSMO. There is a 15% chc of LIFR/IFR CIGs at KLAX, KLGB, KSBP between 23/10Z-16Z. KLAX...High confidence in VFR TAF. However, there is a 15% chance of LIFR/IFR CIGs 23/10Z-16Z. No significant east wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF. No wind issues expected. && .MARINE...22/103 PM. Moderate to high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds (20-30 knots) across the Outer Waters at least through Monday night, most prevalent south and west of Point Sal. This may need to be extended through mid week and expanded to all waters again later in the week. SCA winds gusts are alsoexpected across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast this afternoon and evening, then there is a moderate chance for more widespread wind gusts reaching 25 knots during the afternoon and evening hours starting Tuesday and continuing thru Thursday. Gusts of 20-25 knots should reach the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel each afternoon/evening starting Monday and continue thru Thursday. Otherwise widespread SCA conds are not expected for the southern inner waters through the period. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through Friday evening for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Sunday to 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 AM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT Sunday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 4 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...Black MARINE...Sirard SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  584 FXUS61 KLWX 230044 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 844 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Targeted Flood Watch issued for parts of Central Virginia. Continue to monitor thunderstorms moving across the area for flooding and severe potential. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Showers and thunderstorms expected tonight with a cold frontal passage, some possibly severe, especially west of the Blue Ridge Mountains. - 2) Dry conditions anticipated early next week. - 3) Warmer and more humid conditions return mid-week, with thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and thunderstorms expected tonight with a cold frontal passage, some possibly severe, especially west of the Blue Ridge Mountains. An active evening to overnight hours ahead for the region as as strong upper trough moves from the OH Valley through the Mid- Atlantic. A stalled frontal boundary was noted across the central Shenandoah Valley to Central Virginia, which has been the focus of some of the heavier convection this evening. Rain amounts of 2-4" have been observed, and additional heavy rain could result in flash flooding, especially for urban and low-lying areas. A targeted Flood Watch remains in effected for parts of Central Virginia through midnight. The heavy thunderstorms around Charlottesville (as of 9PM) will move east toward Fredericksburg and the central Chesapeake Bay late this evening. Additional showers and storms over WV, the Alleghenies and northern Shenandoah Valley will steadily move east toward the I-95 metro late this evening. While the overall flood threat remains low due to this convection having faster forward speed, any training or slow moving storms over an urban area could cause flash flooding. Expect a gradual weakening trend overnight as the atmosphere stabilizes. Widespread showers and storms likely continue well past midnight, with conditions drying out from west to east late tonight. Showers or storms may persist until early morning across the Chesapeake Bay and northeast Maryland. KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions anticipated early next week. The front will clear the fcst area overnight, but some upslope showers may persist on the upslope areas of the Appalachians in NW flow Sunday. Breezy and cooler Sunday with scattered fair wx clouds. A sprinkle here in there is possible, but mainly dry. On Monday, we are expecting a cold front to pass through our region. Behind the front, northwesterly winds usher in dry air from central Canada. These sub-60F dewpoints could persist until midweek. With high pressure building over the Appalachian Mountains, drier and cooler conditions could last until late Tuesday. Overall, we are expecting highs to remain in the 70s and mid 80s early next week. Overnight lows ranging in the 50s and 60s throughout the region. KEY MESSAGE 3...Warmer and more humid conditions return mid-week, with thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday. Heading into the middle of next week, surface winds shift southerly. As this tropical air mass moves through our region, humid conditions return through the end of the week. Temperatures rise back into late- August normals with highs in the 80s and 90s Thursday. Late next week, models depict a cold front dropping north to south across the Mid-Atlantic. As an upper-level low near Hudson Bay pushes this front across our region, chances for showers and thunderstorms return. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms move east across the area through the night. Expecting some impacts at all terminals, with TEMPO groups added where confidence was highest. Adjustments likely needed as convection becomes more disorganized overnight. Coldfront clears the area overnight/early Sunday with NW winds gusting up to 20 kt. Sct clouds 050 Sunday. Light to gentle winds shift westerly Wednesday afternoon.VFR conditions are expected early next week. && .MARINE... A cold front moves through the area tonight. Special Marine Warnings may be needed for strong thunderstorms that move across the waters late evening into tonight. Winds become NW behind the front Sunday, and could reach SCA levels for parts of the waters. Winds shift southerly by Wednesday, with winds gusting above SCA thresholds later that evening in a classic southerly channeling event ahead of an approaching cold front. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ014. VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ026-027-029- 037>040-050-051-507-508. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRR/LFR/KVH AVIATION...LFR/KVH MARINE...LFR/KVH  552 FXUS65 KTFX 230044 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 644 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon capable of briefly heavy rainfall and gusty winds. - Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and early evening ahead of a cold front bringing drier and breezy conditions. - Cooler in most areas Monday before temperatures trend closer to, if not above average by mid-week. A few showers and thunderstorms will be around most days next week, primarily across Southwest MT. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 1243 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: High amplitude upper level ridging is slipping east of the region this afternoon ahead of an upper level trough moving onshore across the Pacific NW. Resulting flow aloft is southwesterly, which in combination with an embedded wave lifting northeastward from the base of the upper trough will result in quite a few showers and thunderstorms today. This activity looks to develop across SW MT initially, spreading northeastward into Central MT and vicinity with time. PWATs are elevated, signaling the risk for some heavy rainfall in the strongest thunderstorms. Modest inverted-V profiles suggest strong wind gusts will be the primary concern from a severe weather perspective today, should thunderstorms be able to congeal into at least a broken line. Looking toward tonight forcing increases, especially west of the Continental Divide, as the core of the upper trough approaches the Northern Rockies. There looks to be quite a bit of showers or thunderstorms that develop west of the Continental Divide as a result, with a few of these leaking east of the divide through the overnight. Forcing and flow aloft increases further for Sunday as the upper level system moves overhead and eventually east of the region Sunday night. A cold front moves through associated with this system, bringing cooler temperatures, much drier air, and gusty winds. Ahead of this front there looks to be ample instability, forcing, and marginal kinematics to result in at least a few loosely organized thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. Both strong wind gusts and large hail will be a concern in the most robust thunderstorms. This activity largely looks to develop east of I-15 and continue eastward Sunday. Heading into next week the trend is for weak ridging now across the NW CONUS, which will keep a slightly anticyclonic flow aloft in place. This looks to inhibit showers and thunderstorms for a day or two in most areas, though monsoonal moisture stuck in the southern periphery of the ridge will still result in a few showers and thunderstorms in SW MT near the Idaho border. The ridge axis slowly slips east through the week, with flow aloft becoming slightly more cyclonic each day as another Pacific trough begins to approach the Pacific NW. Showers and thunderstorms gradually increase in coverage mid-week onwards, focused mostly in the afternoon and evening. -AM - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Thunderstorms today: Clearing is being noted on latest satellite imagery across much of ID and into SW MT. This will result in at least weak instability through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. The degree to which the area destabilizes will play a large role in how widespread the risk will be for strong wind gusts. Longer periods of sunny skies would increase this risk over shorter periods of sunshine. Precipitable water (PWAT) values near and in excess of an inch will yield at least a localized risk for briefly heavy rainfall today in the strongest thunderstorms. Should a strong thunderstorm move across an urban area or a burn scar, excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding will be a concern. Overall, the risk for this across any specific area is too low to warrant any flash flood watches. Although this is the case, those in urban areas and near burn scars should be aware of this risk today. Thunderstorms Sunday: Stronger flow aloft arrives with he core of the upper level disturbance ahead of the cold front Sunday. Lingering moisture ahead of the cold front looks to combine with daytime destabilization to result in modest instability by the early afternoon across many areas. Forcing does not look to be lacking Sunday, with the primary limiting factor on organized thunderstorms being slightly sub- optimal shear (Closer to 30kts than 40kts). That said, at least loosely organized thunderstorms look to develop Sunday, mainly east of I-15, which will be capable of strong wind gusts and large hail. Should shear trend much higher, concern would increase for longer lasting, more organized severe thunderstorms. Mid to late week: Guidance has been inconsistent with respect to the progression of Pacific troughing moving in mid to late week. There is a roughly 50/50 split in cluster guidance members for above average heights (Warmer temps) vs below average heights (Cooler temps) across the region by the end of the week. -AM && .AVIATION... 23/00Z TAF Period SHRA and TSRA will continue to lift towards the Northeast this evening as monsoonal moisture works into the area. While any SHRA or TSRA could produce some small hail or wind gusts to 40kts will be possible. SHRA and TSRA should dissipate after 6z for the overnight. A cold front will push through the area on Sunday, bringing increased westerly winds and another round of TSRA east of Interstate 15, and any of these storms could produce large hail and/or wind gusts in excess of 55kts. Ludwig For KGTF: Thunderstorms are expected to begin moving over KGTF as early as 03Z, and will be capable of producing gusty, erratic winds greater than 40 kt, frequent lightning, brief, heavy downpours and hail. Thunderstorms are expected to exit the area around 06Z. Outside of any gusty, erratic winds a thunderstorm may produce, the chance of a cross-wind greater than 15 kts is less than 10% due to a southwesterly direction. While not explicitly mentioned in the TAF, westerly winds to increase around 21z, which will bring near certain crosswinds over 15kts through 2z Monday. Ludwig -Dzomba && .FIRE WEATHER... Although precipitable water is above average today, a few lightning ignitions cannot be ruled out in locally dry areas, particularly in terrain. The most concerning fire weather day will be on Sunday when a surface front brings gusty westerly winds amid continued very warm and dry conditions. The timing of this front will ultimately determine how long the dry and windy conditions persist. The latest NBM probabilistic guidance continues to highlight large areas of north- central and portions of southwest Montana with over a 70% chance for wind gusts over 30 mph. Although the fuels aren't quite as dry as they were in earlier in the month, elevated fire conditions will be present and the wind may be enough to ignite any lightning caused hold over fires from Friday and Saturday's storms. In addition to the winds, there will be more widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with strong, erratic wind gusts. -AM/RCG && .HYDROLOGY... The combination of increased monsoonal moisture aloft and lower level moisture moving in from the east today will result in a 10% chance for localized heavy thunderstorm rains producing flash flooding over and near burn scars, urban areas, and other normally flood prone locations. While this activity will be monitored for the aforementioned flash flooding, a flashflood watch will issued with this forecast package per the more scattered nature of higher rainfall rates and progressive storm motion. The moisture profile begins thin on Sunday, which will reduce the threat for excessive rainfall through early next week. - RCG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 62 89 54 81 / 20 20 0 0 CTB 58 81 50 77 / 20 20 0 0 HLN 57 87 50 85 / 60 20 0 0 BZN 54 86 49 85 / 50 40 20 0 WYS 46 78 40 79 / 50 30 20 0 DLN 52 85 47 84 / 40 20 0 0 HVR 62 93 56 82 / 10 40 20 0 LWT 60 89 53 79 / 20 50 30 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  842 FXUS64 KSHV 230048 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 748 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Heat-related impacts will continue through at least the middle of next week as hot afternoon temperatures and very warm overnight temperatures persist. - A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms on Saturday and Saturday night will pose the threat for strong to severe wind gusts. - A pattern change towards late week may bring slightly cooler high temperatures and higher chances for beneficial rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Water vapor imagery early this afternoon shows a fairly high amplitude ridge of high pressure centered over the Southern and Central Rockies, extending through much of the Intermountain West, the Southern Great Plains and into Mexico. Upstream from this feature exists a fairly robust area of low pressure off the PNW Coast, while downstream of the ridge broad troughing exists across the majority of the Midwest and Eastern US. Near the surface, the latest WPC analysis depicts a weak boundary across SE OK and along the AR/LA border and into MS/AL, with a cool front pushing south across the Central Plains and towards northern AR as an expansive 1026mb high filters into the Northern Great Plains and Upper MS Valley. The pattern described above places the Four State Region on the eastern periphery of the expansive upper level ridge, where some large scale subsidence could still be at work, but it also opens to the area into a NW flow pattern, where multiple shortwave disturbances can be detected within this broad flow. This always makes for a challenging forecast in regards to convective potential/coverage across the CWA. Meanwhile, boundaries near the surface often serve as a catalyst for convection within a warm and unstable environment, in which case multiple either exist or are pushing into the area. For the rest of today, expect hot temperatures in the lower 100s with heat index values between 105 and 110 degrees. All heat precautions will need to continue to be exercised. Convection this afternoon and evening will be tricky to forecast. A decaying complex across OK will largely diminish as it continues to approach the area. Despite this, given sufficient instability and steep low-level rates, isolated single-cell thunderstorms may develop ahead of it this afternoon and evening and carry a threat for small hail and gusty winds, especially along and south of the I-20 corridor. Also later this afternoon, a shortwave trough will push across eastern AR, along with the the southward moving cool frontal boundary. This is generate a moderately organized area of convection, most of which will remain east of the area across central and eastern AR, however isolated to scattered convection may eventually develop westward across Southern AR and northern LA through the overnight period. Any convection that develops across the CWA overnight will gradually weaken and diminish through Sunday morning. Cloud cover will be noticeably higher on Sunday, especially across LA and AR where high temperatures may be 1-5 degrees cooler on Sunday. Unfortunately, high temperatures will still range from the upper 90s to lower 100s so heat index values will still reach advisory criteria. Therefore, the heat advisory has been extended area-wide for Sunday. Convective chances appear more limited for most of Sunday as the upper level ridge nudges slightly farther east. Still cannot completely rule out the chance for isolated afternoon and evening convection given the residual cool frontal boundary and daytime heating. Any convection will pose a threat for strong to severe winds briefly. Of greater concern late Sundayand into Monday appears to be another shortwave perturbation moving through the NW flow over AR, which hi-res guidance is suggesting could generate another semi-organized complex of thunderstorms. Should this complex develop, it may bring a better chance for wider-spread rain and thunderstorms. Placement, timing, and extent of this convection remains a challenge to forecast, but certainly bears monitoring in the near-term. Moving into next week, ensemble consensus moves the ridge back east slightly. This will continue the concern for heat-related impacts as well as continue the elevated fire danger across the area. While many people will not have enjoyed reading that, there also remains rather solid consensus in another retrogression of the ridge by mid-week, which may offer slightly cooler high temperatures in the 90s and perhaps a better chance for rain and convection. CK && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 741 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 For the 23/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions prevail with afternoon convection has largely faded as we move into the early evening. However, a weak disturbance aloft combined with a slow-moving sfc boundary just north of our airspace will traverse farther south overnight into early Sunday morning. Weak forcing along and ahead of these features should initiate some isolated convection across parts of airspace so have inserted VCTS at most sites to account for this possibility. The most likely timeframe for this to occur appears to be from around 06Z-15Z, but timing may need adjusting based on actual observed trends as the convection evolves later this evening and overnight. Otherwise, a mix of mostly mid and high level clouds will persist throughout much of the period with some slightly lower cu/altocu invof of convection. Light/variable winds will prevail as well, except with higher convective gusts. /19/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Spotter activation may needed late tonight and again on Sunday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 80 104 81 102 / 20 30 10 10 MLU 76 101 77 96 / 10 30 40 40 DEQ 71 100 72 102 / 30 20 10 10 TXK 76 101 77 101 / 30 20 10 10 ELD 74 100 74 97 / 50 30 20 20 TYR 80 106 81 105 / 10 10 10 0 GGG 79 107 81 106 / 10 20 10 10 LFK 78 104 78 103 / 0 10 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ DISCUSSION...23 AVIATION...19