329 FXUS63 KLBF 222000 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 300 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A chance for thunderstorms returns to much of the area tonight into early Sunday with a few stronger storms possible in the southern Panhandle through southwest Nebraska where hail and damaging winds will be the primary concerns. - Rain and thunderstorms will continue through Sunday and lead to much cooler temperatures in the upper 70s for central Nebraska, warming to upper 80s/lower 90s west of Highway 83. - Multiple disturbances crossing the upper ridge will allow for daily rain and thunderstorm chances for much of the upcoming week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 This afternoon, skies have largely cleared out from morning thunderstorms that departed prior to dawn to the south and east. Gradually, diurnal cumulus has begun to develop across the area but shows no vertical development so is not anticipated to be much for than a partly sunny afternoon for much of the local area. Temperatures ranged from the upper 70s to lower 80s and we should see a few more degrees added to these values through the peak of the afternoon with breezy east/southeast winds gusting around 20 to 25 mph. Late this afternoon/tonight...shortwave ridging will begin to breakdown as a lead shortwave lifts north and east across Wyoming and into western South Dakota/Nebraska this evening. As this occurs, southeasterly upslope flow will reinforce low to middle 60s dew points reaching the Front Range. Orographic lift and mid-level height falls coinciding with peak heating will allow scattered thunderstorms to develop along the I-25 corridor even as residual capping remains in place. Though instability should wane further east, steep lapse rates aloft and and a modest low-level jet should help maintain convection further east into the evening. The late morning update from the Storm Prediction Center trimmed up the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) across the local area but it still includes portions of our Panhandle and southwest Nebraska zones. Given storms are likely to be fairly disorganized and potentially weakening slightly, believe outflow winds will be the primary concern. As thunderstorms continue to move east, indications are that activity may increase in coverage again towards Highway 83 late tonight. This is likely driven by increased theta-e advection from an increasing LLJ. Instability will be relatively poor as lapse rates decrease so any threat for severe will largely be over by late this evening but greater coverage of general thunderstorms may support a greater potential for rain across the area. Accordingly, have given PoPs a boost for areas east of Highway 83 with values in the 35-45 percent range. HREF localized probability-matched mean shows spotty coverage of QPF > 1.50" with a reasonable buffer of amounts surpassing 0.25". This aligns nearly perfectly with Highway 83 through 12z (7am CDT) Sunday and generally matches the anticipated west to east progression of activity (meaning most locations east of Highway 183 may not see anything until after daybreak Sunday). With the rain and clouds, overnight lows were boosted slight with most locations holding in the low to middle 60s. Sunday/Sunday Night...by early Sunday, the main shortwave trough will be directly overhead and shifting east-southeast through the early part of the day. The passing trough axis will likely signal the end of precipitation chances and have PoPs ending for our western zones by late morning. Further east, particularly north central Nebraska, activity may persist into the afternoon and evening as another late afternoon/evening low-level jet forms and points into south central South Dakota. Limited instability locally coincident with the expected forcing should preclude any severe threat and this aligns with the latest SPC Day 2 outlook which keeps any severe mention to our north. The daytime temperature forecast proved tricky, with large variations in statistical guidance (~10F difference between MET and MAV guidance). Utilized a blend of both to land in the middle but favored the cooler MET guidance slightly given anticipated longer dwelling rain and thunderstorms for central Nebraska. This resulted in afternoon highs ranging from the upper 70s in our north central zones to upper 80s/lower 90s for the western Sandhills/Panhandle/southwest. Similar temperatures are expected Sunday night with forecast lows in the low to middle 60s for all of the area. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Upper level ridging will remain in place over the southern Rockies. This will promote continued zonal to quasi-northwesterly flow aloft for the Central Plains early in the week. Eventually, the upper ridge will retrograde and allow predominant northwesterly flow to become established across the region. Multiple disturbances will drop southeast within the mid-level flow and these along with associated trailing cool front should promote near-daily rain and thunderstorm chances locally with temperatures favoring near to slightly above normal for late August. The expected proximity to a mid-level speed max will largely keep severe weather in play though day-to-day predictability will largely hinge on mesoscale features that coarser mid-range models will struggle to resolve at this timescale. While the pattern doesn't suggest widespread beneficial rainfall across the area, NBM probabilities suggest at least the potential for a few areas to see wetting rains next week. This is especially true each afternoon/evening Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday where probabilities for exceeding 0.25" rainfall climb to around 25- 35 percent. As mentioned before, this will largely come down to smaller scale features which won't be forecasted with greater confidence for a few days still. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected for the bulk of the forecast period. Mostly clear skies this afternoon will give way to increasing cloud cover by late afternoon/early evening with gradually lowering CIGs. Convection will develop well west of the terminals and make an eastward push through the evening. Ensemble guidance, namely the morning HREF run, shows rapidly decreasing QPF probabilities on approach to both KLBF and KVTN and this casts some doubt on storm maintainence/impacts at either site. Similarly, late morning deterministic HRRR output shows similar low-confidence evolution of convection with eastward extent. All this to say, confidence in impacts is low so will cover with a PROB30 group for both site as a result. Following convection, lingering mid-level clouds may presist across the area but should remain at or above 5kft AGL. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NMJ LONG TERM...NMJ AVIATION...NMJ  534 FXUS63 KBIS 222002 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 302 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low to medium chances for showers/thunderstorms push over the area at various times late tonight through Sunday night, possibly lingering over parts of the area into Monday. - A few storms may be strong to severe over southwest and south central North Dakota Sunday, far western North Dakota Sunday night, and central and eastern North Dakota on Monday. - Near to slightly above average temperatures remain in the forecast through the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Current surface analysis places broad high centered over southern Manitoba into the eastern Dakotas, while a low is starting to develop to the lee of the Rockies. Upper level analysis places high over New Mexico, with ridge running northward generally to the lee of the Rockies. Over our area, light winds remain over most locations, though are becoming southeasterly and increasing over our southwest in response to the developing low. For tonight, surface high pushes east with south-southeasterly winds on the increase, particularly over western areas. On Sunday, south-southeasterly winds will continue over the area resulting in increasing low-level moisture and higher humidity values. Of note will be increasing instability values over southwestern into south central North Dakota, with some guidance noting CAPE values exceeding 2000 J/Kg, though guidance is keeping deep layer shear marginal and also possibly capped given the possible limited heating due to mid-level cloud cover. Therefore, will keep severe threat marginal at this point focused mainly over the southwest/south central. As we get into Monday night, the next thunderstorm threat pushes in from Montana late as another short wave makes its approach, again posing a marginal severe threat. Chances then spread east through the day on Monday as the wave and surface trough/front slide easterly. Again, guidance is suggesting elevated instability as we get into primarily central/eastern North Dakota with marginal shear, but then timing of this system comes into play. Therefore, will continue to focus on the marginal threat. On Tuesday, western ridge remains in place but a very compact short wave/low slides down the face of the ridge, but at this point only looks to graze our northeastern areas. Therefore, most locations are expected to remain mild and dry, though some precipitation chances will be in place mainly around the Turtle Mountains. Ridge to the west slowly creeps east and remains the dominating factor keeping temperatures near to above average through the remainder of the forecast, though a few waves pushing through do bring occasional precipitation chances. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Afternoon fair weather cumulus over the James River Valley is resulting in some low end VFR ceilings, though should erode later today into this evening. South-southeast winds will be on the increase overnight into Sunday morning. Over western North Dakota, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible late overnight into Sunday morning, possibly affecting the KDIK and KXWA terminals. Given high confidence, have mentioned in the KDIK TAF. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...JJS  576 FXUS65 KPUB 222002 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 202 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms persist across the eastern plains tonight, some of which may be strong. - Increased coverage of showers and storms expected tomorrow, with flash flood potential, especially along the Aspen Acres burn scar. - Showers and storms continue through much of the incoming week, though with a downtrend in coverage late week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Tonight: For Saturday night, active weather persist for portions of south central and southeastern Colorado. A ridge of high pressure will be in place just to the south of the region. Along the northern periphery of this feature, a short wave will push across the area through the evening and overnight hours. The increased support from this wave, along with abundant monsoonal moisture in place, will allow for storms that develop along the higher terrain earlier in the day to push eastward across the plains overnight. The greatest coverage of storms is expected north of Highway 50, where support from the wave will be best. In addition, outflow from these storms may initiate further thunderstorm development along and just south of Highway 50, but this will be highly dependent on how outflows evolve during this period. With high precipitable water values between 1-.1.5 inches, heavy rainfall and strong outflow winds around 55 mph from wet microburst/heavy water laden downdrafts will be possible with stronger thunderstorms. Outside of that, light showers will fester around the mountain and valley areas. Heading into the early morning hours though, most, if not all, showers and storms are anticipated to be dissipate as the shortwave exits. Beyond all of that, winds will weaken and become lighter overnight, around 10 mph, with clouds lingering through much of the evening and overnight as well. Looking at temperatures, given the moisture and cloud cover in place, another mild to warm night is anticipated, with the plains cooling into the 60s to low 70s, the valleys into the 50s to low 60s, and the mountains into the low 40s to 50s. Tomorrow: Heading into Sunday, another day of active weather is anticipated for south central and southeastern Colorado. The ridge of high pressure will remain to our south, with monsoonal moisture continuing to stream up and around the ridge and into the region. Like Saturday and Saturday night, this moisture, combined with vort maxes and a short wave within the broader flow, will bring another day of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Showers and storms are expected to first blossom along the mountains, and then ooze across the valleys and adjacent plains by mid to late afternoon. With another day of high precipitable water values around 1-1.2 inches, more heavy rainfall and strong outflow winds around 50 mph from water laden downdrafts is expected with any stronger storms. Also given the increased coverage, flash flooding may become a concern, especially across the Aspen Acres burn scar. Given this, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for this area for Sunday. Outside of all of that, afternoon winds will remain fairly light, around 10 mph, with cloud cover increasing heading into the afternoon hours. As for temperatures, another hot day with above seasonal values is expected, with the plains warming into the low to upper 90s, the valleys into the low to upper 80s, and the mountains into the mid 50s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Sunday Night - Friday: For the rest of the forecast period, active weather persist across south central and southeastern Colorado. The ridge ofhigh pressure to south will remain there, but will slowly meander further to the southwest throughout the week. While monsoon moisture will continue to stream around this feature and into the area, it will become less and less as the high pressure cuts-off the better quality moisture heading through week. With that all said, daily afternoon and evening showers and storms are still expected each day, with the greatest coverage through Wednesday, with a progressive downtrend in coverage Thursday and Friday. Otherwise, winds will continue to remain relatively light, with afternoon and evening clouds expected. Temperatures will also remain elevated, with much of the region staying at above seasonal values through the week, especially for the end of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1123 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Lighter winds at the start of this TAF period are expected to increase heading into the afternoon hours as diurnal mixing develops, with the strongest and most persistent gusts for KCOS and KPUB. Winds are anticipated to lessen again later tonight and become light and variable then through tomorrow morning. Dry conditions are expected at the start of this TAF period, with storms increasing in coverage this afternoon and evening. These storms may bring periods of heavy rainfall, reduced visibility, strong outflow winds, and lightning. With that said, any precipitation around is anticipated to dissipate during the overnight hours tonight. Otherwise, mid to high level clouds will persist through much of this TAF period. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for COZ079-080-086. && $$ SHORT TERM...SIMCOE LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...SIMCOE  737 FXUS66 KMTR 222005 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 105 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 103 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Near to slightly below normal temperatures within the marine layer through the extended forecast - Warm and dry conditions persist above 1000 feet && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 103 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 (This evening through Sunday night) The Bay Area and Central Coast continue to be on the border of upper level troughing across Northern California/the Pacific Northwest. Practically, no major changes to the overall forecast. Ridging influence is more pronounced today with the marine layer compressed to around 1000 feet and less extensive morning stratus coverage. Stratus cover has dissipated everywhere except the San Francisco/San Mateo coastline with clear skies across the rest of the region. This will help temperatures to warm slightly compared to yesterday with interior highs in the upper 70s to 80s. Conditions will be warm above the marine layer/in the higher terrain where highs will peak in the upper 80s to low 90s. Cooler conditions prevail along the coast and SF Bay shoreline with highs in the 60s to low 70s. The Interior Central Coast remains toasty with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s expected across far interior Monterey County. Ridging effects remain pronounced heading into Sunday with the marine layer remaining compressed to around 1000 feet. This will bring a return of patchy stratus along the coast and SF Bay shoreline. Given the compressed nature of the marine layer, stratus should scatter out early again, likely by 10/11AM. Sunday's high temperatures will be comparable to Saturday's with highs in the 80s to low 90s across the interior, 60s to 70s along the coast and SF Bay shoreline, and in the 90s to low 100s across the interior Central Coast. Breezy conditions expected Saturday and Sunday over the marine environment, along the coast, and across favored mountain gaps/passes. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 103 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 (Monday through next Friday) The long term forecast is a rinse and repeat of the short term with upper level ridging and troughing fighting over our area. Troughing becomes more influential Monday and Tuesday with the marine layer deepening to around 1000-1500 ft. This should bring more substantial early morning stratus to the region and will see temperatures cool by about 5-6 degrees (low 80s to low 90s across the interior) while coastal temperatures stay relatively stable. Mid to late week, ridging again becomes more dominant with temperatures warming slightly and the marine layer/stratus coverage compressing. This will keep temperatures near to slightly above normal above the marine layer and near to slightly below normal within it through the extended forecast. Diurnally breezy winds continue each afternoon/evening along the coast, higher elevations, and across mountain gaps/passes. Looking farther out, the GFS and ECMWF continue to show a number of tropical systems developing across the Eastern Pacific. We will be keeping an eye on these systems as they develop to see how they interact with the upper level ridge and if any tropical moisture will extend towards the West Coast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR through the afternoon with diurnally influenced and moderate onshore flow. The OAK sounding from this morning measured the marine layer at a depth of 1500 feet which is consistent with the past couple of nights. However, due to dry air entrainment, stratus has been patchy through the morning and will continue to remain so through the TAF period. That being said, as the upper level low moves northeastward, high pressure continues to creep in which will slightly compress the marine layer. The combination of dry air entrainment and slight compression will limit stratus expansion into the interior East and South Bay valley terminals. At sites where stratus develops, ceilings are expected to remain IFR to MVFR. Low to medium confidence on the exact arrival of stratus, though generally expect a later onset. North Bay terminals may experience a weak, short-lived offshore flow overnight which will further delay IFR stratus development and shorten its duration. As a result, low confidence on whether the marine layer will reach APC. Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions with moderate westerlies are forecast through the day. The increased pressure gradient will result in gusty onshore flow through the afternoon and winds ease around sunset. The marine layer is expected to be deep enough to reach SFO overnight, but it is a matter of when. Medium confidence on the exact timing as ceilings may develop a few hours earlier than forecast (09-12Z Sunday). Stratus should have a similar clearing time of 17-18Z Sunday. SFO Bridge Approach...Stratus may be more patchy in nature early morning Sunday. Otherwise, similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Clear skies with a few high clouds prevail through the afternoon with onshore winds around 10 to 15 kt. The offshore stratus feed continues to look messy, therefore a later stratus arrival is forecast this TAF period with medium confidence. IFR ceilings will impact both terminals overnight and persist through the middle of Sunday morning. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1212 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Northwest winds increase to a fresh to strong breeze with slight to moderate seas. Near gale force gusts are possible across the coastal waters, particularly near Point Sur and Point Reyes. Hazardous conditions for small crafts persist today for the bay and coastal waters. Conditions are expected to improve by Sunday night into early next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Navarrete MARINE...Navarrete Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  515 FXUS65 KBOI 222013 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 213 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and strong thunderstorms in south-central Idaho through this evening. Isolated showers and weaker thunderstorms elsewhere in western Idaho until sunset. Clearing in eastern Oregon. - Gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph from thunderstorms in south- central Idaho through sunset. - Dry and slightly cooler Sunday, then several degrees warmer again Monday with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms in southern areas. && .SHORT TERM /Through Monday Night/... At 1 PM MDT scattered showers and thunderstorms were already underway in Owyhee and Twin Falls Counties, moving northeast. These will increase in coverage the rest of the afternoon and early evening, particularly in eastern Owyhee and Twin Falls Counties where monsoon moisture still exists. Meanwhile, a Pacific cold front has developed a band of light rain showers and isolated thunderstorms in Baker and Malheur Counties. The front and the showers/storms will move eastward into Idaho this afternoon and evening and help enhance the thunderstorms in south-central Idaho. Cooler and drier air will come in from the west overnight and Sunday, but a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms will develop again in Twin Falls County Sunday afternoon. Monday looks several degrees warmer again as an upper trough exits east, replaced by a weak upper ridge over Oregon. Mid-level moisture will again increase and lead to a 15 to 30 percent chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms in southern areas, while northern areas stay dry with increasing clouds in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/... Troughing off the shore of Washington and Oregon will keep most monsoonal moisture east of our area. This will keep mostly dry conditions across the area, with a low chance (under 15%) of afternoon showers and thunderstorms across our far eastern zones. Otherwise, breezy conditions will set in with a slight cooling trend. Temperatures come Tuesday will be around 5-10 degrees above normal, cooling to near normal come Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z Saturday through Sunday/... Issued 1227 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026 VFR. Scattered showers and Isolated thunderstorms early this afternoon. Increasing in coverage into this evening with isolated to scattered thunderstorms, mainly in SW-Idaho. Thunder capable of brief heavy rain, hail, and erratic outflows to 40-50 kt. BLDU possible with outflows. High density altitude this afternoon due to heat. Surface winds outside of storms: Variable 5-15 kt, except SW 10-20 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt in E-Oregon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S-SW 10-25 kt. KBOI...VFR. A 20% chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms capable of brief heavy rain, hail, and outflows to 40-50 kt. BLDU possible in outflows. High density altitude this afternoon due to heat. Surface winds: W-NW 6-12 kt this afternoon, becoming SE 5-15 kt after Sun/00z. Sunday Outlook...Generally VFR. Areas of wildfire smoke. Shower and thunderstorm activity in southwest/central Idaho diminishing early Sunday AM. Isolated storms returning near KTWF in the afternoon. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt with afternoon gusts 15-25 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for IDZ401>403-421- 424-426. OR... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ670>672. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....NF AVIATION.....NF  600 FXPQ50 PGUM 222014 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 614 AM ChST Sun Aug 23 2026 .Marianas Synopsis... Partly sunny skies with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have been seen in the Marianas Waters this morning. Numerous showers are seen to the southeast in a monsoon band feeding into Typhoon Saudel far to the north-northwest. && .Discussion... The Marianas will continue to receive swell from both Saudel and the new Tropical Depression 19W well to our west. There will be little else in terms of direct tropical cyclone effects the next several days. A monsoon band feeding into Saudel could create copious on and off showers for the Marianas this week though, especially starting Tuesday, with a first round possible tonight. The swells settle down by Monday or Tuesday, but then get riled up again by the end of the week. Another Small Craft and High Surf Advisory appear likely around the next weekend. && .Tropical Systems... Typhoon Saudel is near 20.4N and 143.6E. It is moving northwest away from the Marianas, and is expected to turn slightly to the west- northwest later. Saudel's maximum winds have increased to 120 mph, and more intensification is expected. For more information on Typhoon Saudel, please refer to the Tropical Cyclone Warning from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW, and the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory from the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM. Saudel is now joined by Tropical Depression 19W northwest of Yap. 19W has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, and is expected to intensify briefly for a limited time before weakening again. It is moving northwest at 10 mph but is expected to make a turn toward the northeast. For more information on Tropical Depression 19W, please refer to the Tropical Cyclone Warning from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN33 PGTW, and the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory from the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ33 PGUM. && .Eastern Micronesia... Wet and unsettled weather is expected across eastern Micronesia today and into the work week as a broad disturbance treks to the west-northwest over the next couple of days. High-end scattered to widespread, locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as the disturbance moves across the region and west to southwest, monsoonal inflow ramps up. Gentle to moderate winds are expected at Pohnpei and Kosrae through early this week with moderate to fresh winds expected at Majuro through Monday. Occasional gusts up to 30 knots will also be possible at Majuro. Depending on how high the south winds end up getting later today at Majuro, a Small Craft Advisory may be warranted. Regardless, choppy seas and strong gusts appear likely. Combined seas of 5 to 6 feet are expected at all forecast points through today and seas will increase at Majuro tonight, potentially up to 6 to 8 feet. && .Western Micronesia... Invest 97W was upgraded to a tropical depression overnight by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, now TD 19W. 19W will continue to pull away from the area as it treks to the north-northwest. Shower chances have greatly diminished as a result, with shower coverage dropping to high-end scattered at best through early Monday. Isolated thunderstorms will continue to be possible though. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will persist through today at both Palau and Yap, and drop to mostly moderate tonight. Though, fresh winds will still be possible at Yap through tonight. Near-gale force gusts will continue through today at both sites, and potentially into tonight at Yap. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected through tonight at Chuuk with shower coverage likely increasing to numerous on Monday. Seasup to 10 feet will continue to be possible today at both Yap and Palau, but may be stubborn to fall below hazardous levels at Yap until tonight. As such, the Small Craft Advisory was extended for Yap through 5am Monday. Combined seas are expected to hover around 5 feet or so over the next couple of days at Chuuk. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...High Rip Current Risk until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for GUZ001. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for GUZ001. MP...High Rip Current Risk until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for MPZ001>003. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for MPZ001>003. Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM ChST this afternoon for PMZ151>154. && $$ Marianas: Stanko East/West Micronesia: Whisnant  571 FXUS63 KFGF 222014 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 314 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...Synopsis... Northwest flow prevails through the forecast period, with the passage of several shortwaves. A weak system moves into central and southeast North Dakota on Sunday, with low chances for a passing afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Best chances will be further west, however. A better chance for showers and storms will occur late Monday into Tuesday, when a stronger shortwave moves southeast out of Manitoba and into northwest and north central Minnesota. This will bring us a chance for isolated severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Moving into Tuesday, parts of northwest Minnesota could see an additional round of showers as weak shortwave activity continues. H5 ridging over the western CONUS is expected to flatten, thus weakening our northwest flow heading into the second half of next week. Ensemble guidance suggests additional rain chances as we head into Friday and Saturday, but will ultimately depend on the speed and progression of antecedent shortwave activity and shifts in the overall pattern. ...Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Late Monday... There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into the evening as a moderately strong shortwave pushes across the area. Steep low and mid level lapse rates will be in place during peak heating, with a cold front approaching from the northwest. Modeled surface CAPE ranges from 1500 to 2500 J/Kg across various ensembles and deterministic NAM/NAM Nest. Low to mid level shear is marginal, especially further ahead of the cold front. Hodographs, however, are relatively straight and have a degree of consistency in model soundings. If storms are able to form, there should be just enough shear to allow a mention of supercells, with a chance for splitting supercells or hybrid clusters. In a higher impact scenario, supercells form, bringing potential hazards including wind gusts upwards of 75 mph and large hail to the size of golf balls. If atmospheric support shifts more towards clusters, the potential hazards could include wind gusts upwards of 70 mph and hail up to the size of ping pong balls. Alternatively, in a lower end scenario, storms form later in the evening and severe storms become less likely, but could still support elevated hail producing storms during the late evening and overnight. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period at all TAF sites. North winds are expected most of the day, generally at 7-12 knots. A few gusts to near 20 knots are possible at KFAR, KGFK, and KBJI. Heading into the evening, winds become light and variable. Skies remain clear to partly cloudy today, with only a few cumulus possible this afternoon during peak heating. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TL AVIATION...TL  187 FXUS65 KTWC 222028 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 128 PM MST Sat Aug 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms expected this weekend, with daily but gradually reduced chances through next week. Strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will be possible with any thunderstorm. High temperatures will remain above normal through the coming week. && .DISCUSSION... Water vapor imagery shows a ridge of high pressure over the intermountain west. The ridge axis is just to our east. PWATS are 1.25 inches by Ajo with lower values down to 0.80 inches in Douglas. Plus, the upper level flow is southerly to slightly southeasterly. This sets up the favorite area for any thunderstorms west and south of Tucson today because of the better PWATS values and lots of sunshine to get higher CAPE values. 12Z HREF has 50-70% chances for thunderstorm wind gusts greater than 35 mph over central Pima County (between Three Points and Ajo). This will bring a risk for blowing dust, depending on how dry the soils tops have been in the last 24 hours. Any storm has the ability to produce brief locally heavy rainfall, posing a 5% risk for flash flooding. Thunderstorm activity will wane down after sunset. Going forward, high pressure will stay around the region for the long haul, prolonging our heat. The ridge axis will slowly move west over the region by Tuesday which will elevate temperatures and crank up the HeatRisk across the region to widespread Major and Extreme. Cochise and Santa Cruz Counties risk will increase to Major by Tuesday and Wednesday. Extreme Heat Warning has been extended for most of Pima, Pinal, and the valleys of Graham and Greenlee through the rest of the new week. Some areas of the warned area will see a brief moment of "cooling" (by a 1-3 degrees) on Sunday and Monday while other areas, such as built up population areas, will continue to experience Major HeatRisk; especially with the compounding heat over the last days and above normal overnight lows. Any thunderstorms and increase thick clouds can reduce or delay those hot temperatures. Daily slight chances for thunderstorms will continue through Monday, mainly favoring west and south of Tucson. Chances will reduce each day as the ridge axis moves over the region. Tuesday through Thursday will be more of the down days during period. Long range models indicate an increase trend of thunderstorms by the end of the week due to the favorable upper level flow and pattern. In the extended, CPC outlooks for the 8-14 days has a 60-80% likely above normal temperatures and near normal precipitation for Southeast Arizona. && .AVIATION...valid through 24/00Z. FEW-SCT clouds 9-13k ft AGL through forecast period with locally BKN between 22/21Z and 23/10Z. Expect isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA this afternoon, mainly west of a KFHU-KSAD line, diminishing by 23/06Z. SHRA/TSRA chances return after 23/21Z mainly south and west of KTUS. Gusts in excess of 40 kts are expected with the stronger storms. Otherwise surface winds light and terrain driven. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected this weekend with daily but gradually reduced chances as next week progresses. Temperatures will remain above normal through the coming week. Dryer conditions will return in the middle of the week with minimum relative humidity values mainly 10-18 percent in the valleys and 20-30 percent. Winds will generally remain less than 15 mph and terrain driven through the week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ501-502- 504>506-509. && $$ Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson  750 FXUS65 KBYZ 222037 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 237 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms possible through the weekend. A few storms could be strong to severe, especially Sunday afternoon and evening. Localized heavy rainfall a threat as well. - Drier with seasonal temps next week with just an occasional chance of precipitation. && .DISCUSSION... Through Friday... An upper low moving onshore into the Pac NW is causing the ridge axis over the region to slowly shift eastward, bringing an increase in moisture from the south (PWATs 150-200% of normal). A shortwave moving into the region from the southwest will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area during the afternoon and evening, gradually decreasing into the late evening and overnight. Convection will linger into the early morning hours across the far east, where a low level jet is expected to develop. There could be a couple strong storms, with strong winds and small hail. With the high PWATs, any thunderstorm will be capable of producing heavy rainfall. The upper low pushes east along the US/Canada border Sunday into Monday, breaking down the upper ridge. As the low slides east, an associated cold front is expected to push through the area late Sunday. Areas west of Billings could see a period of elevated fire weather concerns on Sunday as pre-frontal conditions bring westerly wind gusts of 15-30 mph, with humidity down near 20 percent. Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms (30-60% chance) look to spread across the area during the afternoon and evening as well. A few of the thunderstorms could be severe with modest instability (500-1000 J/kg) and shear (deep layer shear around 30 kts). The main threats with the thunderstorms are strong wind gusts of 60+ mph and quarter size hail. Heavy rainfall is possible with the thunderstorms as well. The SPC currently has a marginal to slight risk of severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening for most of the area. Behind the cold front, Monday will be mostly dry and a few degrees cooler than Sunday. Upper level ridging then builds in by Tuesday, but weak energy and slightly above normal moisture (PWATs around 110-140% of normal) will allow for periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms to continue through the end of the work week. While uncertainty exits, another break down of the upper ridge could occur by late next week. Highs are forecast to range from the 90s most places on Sunday, cooling into the middle to upper 80s Monday and Tuesday. A gradual warming trend is then forecast into the second half of the week with temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. STP .AVIATION... 18z Discussion... Showers are starting to fill in for areas near KBIL/KSHR and westwards. Out east, near KMLS, SE winds are starting to pick up as some gusts top 20 kts. Both of these trends will continue over the coming hours. There will be two rounds of SHRA/TS this evening after 21z and overnight that move from KLVM through KBIL/KSHR, one is more likely than the other at each site and thus a TEMPO and PROB30 were added for each round respectively. Winds with these storms will be erratic with gusts up to 40 kts possible. Rainfall rates my be briefly heavy which may bring VIS down to MVFR, otherwise all sites should stay VFR. Another round of TS is forecast after 18z Sunday. WMR && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 067/095 063/088 061/086 061/091 063/093 063/089 061/089 54/T 30/U 00/B 00/B 21/B 20/B 20/B LVM 056/090 050/087 052/086 052/089 052/089 051/087 050/085 76/T 20/U 01/U 11/B 42/T 21/U 21/U HDN 064/097 060/089 056/088 056/093 061/094 060/091 058/090 33/T 40/U 00/U 00/U 12/W 20/B 20/B MLS 068/096 064/087 058/086 057/089 062/093 063/090 060/090 31/U 30/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 20/B 10/B 4BQ 067/095 065/088 059/086 058/089 063/092 063/090 061/090 31/U 30/U 10/U 00/U 11/B 21/B 21/B BHK 062/094 060/088 054/086 051/088 055/091 057/090 055/090 43/T 30/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 32/W 21/B SHR 060/092 058/087 055/084 052/088 056/090 056/088 054/088 33/T 30/U 03/T 12/T 21/B 11/B 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings  840 FXUS63 KGID 222038 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 338 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions this afternoon continue on into this evening, before chances for showers and storms ramp back up from west- to-east...mainly after midnight into Sunday morning. Severe weather is not anticipated. - Precipitation and cloud cover look to linger longer into the day on Sunday, especially across the eastern half of the forecast area. This impacts forecast highs, which range from the mid 70s east to mid 80s west. Another disturbance brings additional storm chances Sunday night, mainly focused across NNE portions of the area. Again severe weather is not anticipated. - The new work week sounds a lot like the previous one...with periodic upper level shortwave disturbances working through the continued northwesterly flow across the region. This will keep precipitation chances in the forecast each day...remaining mainly focused in the evening/overnight hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Currently... The day started out on the west side for a good chunk of the forecast area...as yet another upper level shortwave disturbance (aided by increased lower-level convergence) made its way across the region...with a couple spots producing wind gusts around 60 MPH. That activity exited the area around mid-morning...leaving behind a pretty nice day with plenty of sun. Upper air and satellite data showing continued northwesterly flow in place across the Central Plains this afternoon as the pattern remains well amplified across the CONUS. The main ridge axis extends north through the Rockies from high pressure centered mainly over CO/NM...sandwiched between areas of low pressure/southward extending troughing over northern Ontario and just off the Pac NW coast. At the surface...a large area of high pressure is centered over near the ND/Canada border, with its axis extending south roughly along the MO River. This is keeping winds across the forecast area easterly, with speeds on the lighter side, around 10-15 MPH. No big surprises as far as temperatures go...with mid afternoon readings in the low-mid 80s. This evening on into Sunday... Quiet conditions this afternoon will continue on into the evening hours, before precipitation chances ramp back up later tonight. Off to our west...radar and satellite imagery showing scattered storms developing over the Rockies, as another shortwave disturbance rides around the edge of the ridge, and aided by east-southeasterly lower-level upslope flow. The main question as the late evening-overnight hours pass is how much of this activity is sustained long enough to move into our forecast area. Kept the forecast dry through 06Z...and some of the hi-res models suggest it'd be even later than that by a few hours before activity creeps into our western edge. Aided by lift along an increased, but not overly strong, SSErly low level jet...models are in pretty good agreement showing at least scattered activity making it into the forecast area. The timing may end up not too different than last night with the onset being around 09Z...but models suggest that activity lingers around the area longer, potentially not until early-mid afternoon before sliding off to our east. This activity is not expected to be severe...models still showing that while deeper layer shear isn't bad (30-35ish kts), the main axis of better instability focused just off to our west...so the SPC Day 1 outlook areas remain both west and south of the area. Once the activity pushes east, the rest of the day Sunday is dry, but will likely see more cloud cover linger longer into the day...especially across the eastern half of the area. This would impact high potential for the day...forecast currently has mid 70s in the east to mid 80s in the west (where more sun is possible). Between the sfc high shifting more to our east and low pressure deepening over the High Plains...winds are expected to turn more southerly for Sunday...with the potential for gusts near 20 MPH across areas mainly west of HWY 281. Later Sunday night into the overnight hours...little overall change in the upper level pattern means there will the potential for yet another shortwave disturbance to bring additional storm chances to the area. Main difference during this period is that models still suggesting this disturbance tracks a bit further north (as does better convergence along the LLJ)...and along with warmer mid-level temps the further SW you go, result in these chances more of a glancing shot, focused across the NNErn third or so of the forecast area. Severe weather chances remain low through Sunday night- early Mon AM. Monday and on... Outside of any lingering activity early in the morning, the daytime and at least early evening hours on Monday remain dry. Models showing little movement in the location of the main upper level area high of high pressure and northward extending ridging into the Rockies...but do show that area of low pressure currently off the Pac NW pushing further inland...sliding through the southern half of Saskatchewan during the daytime hours. Precipitation chances do return to the forecast late Monday night-Tuesday AM...but remain low (20-30 percent) as models vary with how much (if any?) activity impacts the forecast area, with the better upper level forcing well to our NW. Later Tuesday (more the evening/overnight hours) may bring better thunderstorm chances to the area...as that main upper low is working its way more into MN, with the trough axis draped further SW into the region. Storms may initially focus along an accompanying sfc frontal boundary (though it's not a strong one)...later aided by an increasing LLJ. Still plenty of uncertainty and details to iron out...as being this far south of the main upper low doesn't do the precip coverage any favors, and with the sfc front and LLJ potentially not overly strong, there are difference with just much activity there ends up being. The rest of the week continues to sound like a broken record...upper level pattern remaining northwesterly (potentially more zonal next weekend), with periodic shortwave disturbances bringing additional precipitation chances (mainly focused in the evening/overnight hours). As far as temperatures go for the new work week...not any significant changes, and not expecting any notable swings. Forecast highs remain mainly in the 80s, with some 90s working into WSWrn areas. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Have VFR conditions continuing through this TAF period...with much of the period being dry. Exception to that dry forecast looks to be late tonight-early Sunday morning...when another upper level disturbances brings additional precipitation chances to the forecast area. Some uncertainty still remains with the overall coverage and the exact timing, so kept things in a PROB30 group at this point, running from 09-15Z. Winds the rest of this afternoon expected to remain easterly, with speeds topping out around 10 MPH...then turning more light/variable this evening and tonight. After sunrise Sunday, winds turn more southeasterly, again with speeds around 10 MPH. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...ADP  951 FXUS65 KGGW 222039 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 239 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Typical mid to late August conditions are expected through the weekend with warm daytime conditions and comfortable nights. - Increasing risk for isolated severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon bringing strong winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall. - Warm and dry conditions resume next week as the western ridge rebounds. && .DISCUSSION... WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper ridge over the northern Rockies will begin to slide east today in response to a trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop overnight as the ridge axis moves east and a weak shortwave pushes south through the ridge. Ample midlevel monsoonal moisture will begin streaming into eastern Montana and with high PWATs possible, some storms could produce heavy rain. The Pacific NW trough will knock down the ridge on Sunday with another round of storms. Strong winds aloft will increase vertical wind shear and coupled with moist, unstable air will bring increased severe risk. Any storms that develop may produce damaging winds and large hail. All thunderstorms have dangerous lightning, which may pose a risk of fire starts. Southeast winds will also be increasing today ahead of the disturbance that will make conditions on Fort Peck Lake hazardous. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect until 3 AM tonight. Ridge rebounds early next week in the wake of the departing trough to bring dry conditions with temperatures slightly above normal. Fire weather is expected to be quiet as humidity will be on the rise with winds this weekend. Otherwise, winds are expected to decrease after the weekend and be generally light through the next seven days. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Increased PoPs and PoT following the upgrade to slight risk. Confidence for timing of storm chances tomorrow is high, though severity and exact location of strongest storms remains uncertain. && .AVIATION... UPDATED: 1900Z FLIGHT CONDITION: VFR. MVFR to IFR in stronger storms. DISCUSSION: Clear, dry, and breezy conditions expected to maintain through the early evening. Beginning after 6Z an initial push of showers and isolated thunderstorms move west to east over TAF sites. After a brief lull during the overnight and early morning hours, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms look to impact western TAF sites around 0Z tomorrow and exit eastern sites after 4Z. WINDS: SE at 10 to 20 kts, beginning to weaken by 6Z today. Low pressure system passes over around mid day tomorrow with winds becoming west. Any thunderstorm that passes over TAF sites will have strong, erratic wind gusts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Seasonably hot temperatures with a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected through Monday. Two rounds of showers and thunderstorms begin this evening with steadier showers will see wetting rains. Strong to severe thunderstorms in the afternoon tomorrow will bring gusty, erratic winds and frequent lightning. Areas that didn't see rain the night before may be at a higher risk for lightning starts as fuels will continue to dry out with high temperatures and stronger winds tomorrow. Though min RH values in the 20-40% range and good overnight recovery will mitigate fire weather concerns. Warm and dry conditions are expected to resume Tuesday. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory until 3 AM MDT Sunday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow  158 FXUS66 KPQR 222044 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 144 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure moving over the area will send a weak cold front through the area tonight. Expect near average daytime highs through the week. Ridging builds back into the area early next week, increasing temperatures back into the mid to upper 80s across the interior lowlands. && .DISCUSSION...Tonight through Friday...An upper level trough will continue to progress northeast tonight, sending a weak cold front through the area. As the low moves further inland, zonal flow aloft will develop on Sunday. Zonal flow will maintain seasonal temperatures across the forecast area. Looking ahead through the early next week, ensemble clusters favor ridging over the central CONUS which will spread into the PacNW. As the ridge builds over the area, warmer temperature are expected to return Monday and Tuesday. There remains some uncertainly as to how warm the start of next week will be as the 10th-90th percentiles for daytime highs range from the mid 80s to low 90s for the interior lowlands on Monday and Tuesday. Clusters favor another trough influencing the region by mid-week but exact timing and upper level pattern are uncertain but onshore flow and seasonable or below average temperatures would be favored. When looking at Wednesday and Thursday, the 10th-90th percentiles range from the low 70s to low 80s. There is also no clear signal for any precipitation associated with the mid week trough. approximately 15-25% of members show very light rain possible during the Thursday-Friday timeframe but nothing significant at this time. /42-19 && .AVIATION...An upper-level low currently offshore continues moving north/northeast. This low has resulted in a mixture of MVFR and VFR conditions along with southerly winds across the airspace. Southerly winds are expected to persist, with the MVFR/VFR mixture inland continuing to slowly improve to predominately VFR conditions for all inland locations. These VFR conditions inland are expected to persist through at least 04Z-06Z Sunday. Afterwards, MVFR conditions are expected to return across all inland locations. Coastal locations will maintain generally MVFR conditions through the TAF period. There is a low probability (10-20%) that brief periods of VFR conditions will continue to occur along the coast from through 00Z Sunday. Gusts approaching 25 kt expected along the coast through around 06Z Sunday. KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR conditions will improve towards VFR through 22Z Saturday. Southerly winds expected to persist through the TAF period. Around 05Z-08Z MVFR conditions are expected to return and persist through the remainder of the TAF period. /42 && .MARINE...South to southwest winds continue through tonight as a low pressure system moves over the northeast Pacific. A cold front moves across all waters this evening, bringing a 50-80% chance for maximum wind gusts up to 25 kt for the inner waters and the Columbia River Bar. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the inner waters and the Columbia River Bar through 5 PM tonight. For the outer waters, chances are 20-40% with the highest values of that range between 10 and 30 NM. && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ210- 251>253. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  344 FXUS66 KSGX 222045 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 145 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Monsoonal moisture will decrease this weekend, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for the mountains and lower deserts returning for Monday afternoon. Above average high and low temperatures will continue through next week. Widespread moderate to locally major HeatRisk for the coast, valleys, and mountains except near the beaches and for the higher elevations in the mountains, with major to extreme HeatRisk for the lower deserts. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Another mostly clear day across the region. Over the San Bernardino Mountains, there is some cumulus development, though much less vertically developed than at this time yesterday. With southwesterly steering flow aloft and limited PWAT, chances for any showers this afternoon are around 10% over the southern San Diego County mountains and less elsewhere. The marine layer this morning was only around 500-1000 feet deep, yielding patchy fog west of the I-15 corridor down to the coastal mesas. This pattern should continue for at least the next few nights with the marine layer expanding a few hundred feet Sunday night then contracting again Monday night. Thunderstorm chances look rather limited throughout the entire forecast period; Monday being the only day with more than zero confidence for perhaps a few showers/thunderstorms as PWAT's may briefly rise above 1.3 inches. Model spread in PWAT values diverge quite significantly through the rest of the week, so precip chances remain uncertain. In terms of heat, the ridge of high pressure across the Four Corners Region is here to stay through the end of August. The ridge tightens ever so slightly Sunday, allowing temperatures to back off a few degrees inland and in the deserts for Monday afternoon before slowly expanding and intensifying again through the middle of the week. Highs increase 2 to 4 degrees into Tuesday, then another few degrees into Wednesday with a net increase of 5 to 10 degrees over these two days (4-8 above average Monday to 10-14 above average Wednesday). These very hot temperatures stick around until at least Friday with limited guidance showing any weakening of the ridge through the end of the 7-day forecast period. HeatRisk for the inland valleys increase from predominantly moderate through Tuesday to Major through Friday. For coastal areas and higher elevations, HeatRisk transitions from Minor through Monday to Moderate and locally Major (all the way to the beaches) for the remainder of the week. The combination of hot daytime temperatures with overnight temperatures struggling to drop below the lower 70s will especially affect those without access to air conditioning. In raw numbers, Monday highs look like... ... 80s at the coast, 90s inland, 100-105F in the IE and around 110F in the lower deserts. Wed/Thurs/Fri highs look like... ... upper 80s/low 90s at the coast, 95-105F inland, 105-110F in the IE and 114-117F in the lower deserts. The Heat Advisory for inland areas through 10 AM Tuesday is then followed by an Extreme Heat Watch through Friday 8 PM for the whole region, except for the lower deserts which are already in an Extreme Heat Warning through Friday evening. Take breaks in the shade, hydrate and seek A/C when possible! && .AVIATION... 221810Z...Coast...Mostly clear by this afternoon through the evening hours. Low to moderate chance on cigs returning at the beaches after 04Z this evening. Confidence higher on cigs impacting coastal TAF sites between 10-15Z Sun with bases near 500-1000 ft MSL. Locally lower cigs near 200-400 ft MSL in higher terrain. Vis lowering near 2-4 sm for most areas, locally below 1 sm. Clouds clearing 14-16Z with moderate confidence on timing. Otherwise...Mostly clear through the TAF period. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday. Increasing south swell mid to late next week starting Wednesday with waves up to 6 feet. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Friday evening for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Orange County Coastal Areas- Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys- Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Heat Advisory until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for Coachella Valley- San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Westerink AVIATION/MARINE...APR  600 FXUS65 KCYS 222052 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 252 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected this weekend, with the possibility of widespread rain on Saturday. A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon. Flash flooding is also possible. - Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue Monday through the end of the week with slightly above average temperature expected until Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Another active day is expected this afternoon and evening as a shortwave passes through the upper-level ridge, bringing with it a push of monsoon moisture. Much like yesterday, the early development already being seen is weak and pulsey due to a decent amount of MLCIN still present. As the afternoon progresses, CIN will erode and storms will take advantage of the ample amounts of SBCAPE that the RAP is predicting later this afternoon. The shortwave will provide the lift for storms to develop while decent shear will allow for a few organized cells to sustain themselves. For the most part, hodographs are fairly linear, so multicell clusters and perhaps a small line or two are the favored storm modes. This is supported by Hi-Res guidance showing a similar solution. Although strong winds will be the primary concern in storms, embedded large hail could also be possible. With the monsoon push, PWATs are in the 90th percentile with model soundings showing rather slow cloud layer winds. As a result, heavy rains are expected with flash flooding a possibility. Along with flash flooding, a few severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Although storms are already beginning to fire, the strongest storms are most likely 4 PM and 9 PM this evening. After this timeframe, linger scattered showers are expected throughout southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska for the better part of the overnight. With the remnant moisture from storms and weak southerly flow overnight, patchy fog and low stratus could once again be possible for areas east of the Laramie Range, including the Nebraska panhandle. Sunday does not look as active as Saturday, although precipitation chances are still forecast. The ridge will flatten slightly as a trough skirts the Canadian border. This will cause winds to turn more westerly, which will help dry the low-levels a bit compared to Saturday. The westerly winds also cut down on instability, with model soundings only showing about 1000 J/kg of CAPE. As a result, Hi-Res guidance shows less coverage of storms across the forecast area. Any storms that develop on Sunday are not likely to be severe. With the westerly winds, gusty conditions are expected out west. A decent MSLP gradient will set up with 40 kt winds aloft. This could lead to 40+ MPH wind gusts during the afternoon and evening hours. Winds as well as any showers will dissipate overnight. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Moving into the work week we'll start off on the hot side with a high pressure ridge firmly in control of the Western US. While temperatures will cool just a couple of degrees compared to Sunday, highs still sit warmer than average by around 5-8 degrees. A cold front will be approaching the region with another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms on tap including locally stronger to weakly severe activity possible. By Tuesday though a backdoor cold front will offer very meager respite as highs drop by around 2-6 degrees, closer to near average but still above by up to a few degrees. Similarly, moisture will continue to remain just above average at around 120-140% of average, equating to PWAT values of 0.75-1.25 inches. While not impressive by any stretch of the imagination, this should continue to fuel daytime thunderstorms with a marginal risk of severe activity. Wednesday through the end of the week look to be largely similar with a steady warming trend, bringing us back to temperatures similar to Monday alongside continued daily afternoon thunderstorm risk under westerly to northwesterly flow. Drier air will slowly infiltrate through the week though, and this will begin to steadily increase our fire weather risk with elevated conditions at least by Friday. Anyone expecting an early end to summer will be sorely disappointed in the last full week of August. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1136 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A mix of flight categories expected over the next 24 hours. Some low stratus are beginning to clear away from BFF, but may linger for another hour or two. Thereafter, look for mid level clouds to move in through the day, with thunderstorms possible this evening across all sites. Any storms could lower CIGs to MVFR status, with MVFR to possibly brief IFR VIS. Thereafter, clouds will lift and clear through the night into tomorrow morning. Winds breezy at 15-25 knots, higher with any nearby storms causing gusty and erratic conditions, with similar winds overnight into tomorrow morning. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SF LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...CG  732 FXUS66 KPDT 222055 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 155 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag Warnings in effect through 11 PM this evening for abundant lightning and gusty outflow winds for the northern Blue Mountains. - Breezy to windy westerly winds today will overlap with low relative humidity across much of the forecast area. Red Flag Warnings and Wind Advisories are in effect through this evening. && .DISCUSSION... A low-pressure system currently centered near the OR/WA coast will continue to drive an active weather day across the region. Cross-Cascade surface pressure differences have been a bit weaker than anticipated yesterday; observed values in the 7-8 mb range (Portland to Spokane) are a few millibars shy of what we would like to see for widespread windy conditions. That said, NWP guidance shows an increase to 9-11 mb through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. Coupled with a 25-35 kt 850-mb jet through the Cascade gaps and across the Columbia Basin, still anticipating widespread breezy conditions, so have retained the previously issued Wind Advisories which remain in effect through this evening. Additionally, have added patchy blowing dust to the forecast for dust-prone locations within the Columbia Basin region. Confidence is low in timing, magnitude, and duration of any visibility reductions, but given the extended dry conditions, forecast winds will be capable of lofting dust. High-based showers are ongoing across the eastern third of our forecast area, roughly along and east of a line extending from Grant County through Umatilla, Walla Walla, and Franklin counties. Gusty outflow winds in excess of 45 mph have been observed with shower activity in Wallowa County. Additional shower and thunderstorm development will be capable of producing strong, gusty outflow winds due to a deep, well-mixed boundary layer; DCAPE values of roughly 1000-1400 J/kg are in place over the region. CAMs have loosely clustered around the northeastern portion of the Blue Mountains from the Elkhorns north through the northern Blue Mountains for additional thunderstorm development this afternoon. A wide range of solutions remains present among CAMs, many of which produce no significant convection while others initiate and maintain rather robust cells over the aforementioned area. Should robust convection develop, an environment characterized by ample effective shear (30-45 kts) and MUCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg will be capable of maintaining a few strong thunderstorms. Moreover, stronger storms will be capable of producing small hail and severe outflow winds in excess of 60 mph. The low-pressure system will track inland across northern Washington this evening through Sunday, with low (5-10 percent) precipitation chances into tonight. Breezy westerly winds will continue into Sunday, though not anticipating the need for additional headlines for wind or fire weather. Ensemble NWP guidance is in subjectively excellent agreement that a ridge of high pressure will rebuild over the Pacific Northwest by Monday, while a pair of closed lows (one in the Gulf of Alaska, and the other farther south in the eastern Pacific) attempt to merge. A low (5-15 percent) chance of showers and thunderstorms is forecast for the southern Blue Mountains on Monday, with otherwise above-normal temperatures and dry conditions. Later Tuesday through Friday, the then-merged lows (per ensemble mean 500-hPa heights/vorticity and deterministic solutions) will likely (90 percent confidence) track towards the Pacific Northwest (later Tuesday or Wednesday) and eventually inland (Thursday or Friday). This scenario would result in breezy westerly winds through the Cascade gaps and low chances (20 percent or less) of showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... VFR to MVFR conditions through the TAF period with isolated showers and thunderstorms moving through the region. Gusty wind of 20-30 kt favored at all terminals today, with wind weakening after 03z this evening. Gusty and erratic wind could accompany any storm development today. Branham/76 && .FIRE WEATHER... A low-pressure system currently centered near the OR/WA coast will continue to produce widespread breezy to windy westerly winds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 25-40 mph, locally stronger, through this evening. Moreover, a very low to slight chance (5-20%) of high-based showers and thunderstorms will continue roughly from Grant and Umatilla counties eastward to Wallowa County through this evening. Any showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong, gusty outflow winds of 40-60 mph. Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for wind and low relative humidity (WA690, WA691, OR691, OR696, OR698, OR700, and OR703) as well as abundant lightning and gusty outflow winds (OR/WA692) through this evening. Breezy winds will continue overnight into Sunday as the low- pressure system exits to the northeast, but overlap of critical wind/RH thresholds is unlikely (<30% chance). && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 49 82 48 89 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 57 84 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 58 86 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 59 86 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 58 85 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 54 78 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 45 84 46 90 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 51 86 50 93 / 10 0 0 0 GCD 53 87 52 95 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 61 82 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for WAZ026-522-523. Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ024-521. Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for WAZ690-691. Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ692. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for WAZ693. Wind Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for WAZ026. OR...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for ORZ041-044-049-050- 502-503-505>507-509>511. Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ041-044-508- 510. Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for ORZ691-696- 698-700-703. Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ692. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ693. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...76 FIRE WEATHER...86  831 FXUS63 KGLD 222056 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 256 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms forecast to develop along the CO Front Range late this afternoon will track east toward the KS border this evening. A few storms capable of producing small hail and localized wind gusts up to 65 mph are possible, mainly in eastern CO between 7-11 PM MDT. - Another chance for storms Sunday night with a low risk for damaging winds. - Severe chances likely return for early next week under northwest flow. - Above normal temperatures through at least mid week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Upper ridge over the Texas Panhandle today will gradually migrate westward to the Four Corners by Tuesday night. This position will keep the Central Plains under zonal to northwesterly flow through the period with chances for showers and thunderstorms. Today and Sunday, with the ridge to the south and a zonal flow coming out of Colorado, convection originating over the mountains and Front Range will move east and reach the area during the evening hours. Storms will likely be weakening as they do so with the rapid decrease in instability near sunset. Nonetheless, they may still pose a marginal severe wind risk even in the decaying stages. Rainfall amounts look to be light, less than a quarter of an inch both nights. Monday and Tuesday, will be transitioning back to northwest flow with a corresponding increase in deep layer shear. This will result in better organized updrafts and a severe risk both days for wind and hail. On Monday the primary storm initiation area will be southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. The mean flow around the ridge will take them east then southeast with time, which will place areas generally north of Interstate 70 in the most favorable region for severe storms. On Tuesday, storms will be initiating further south in northeast Colorado in the afternoon, then moving east to southeast through the evening. The severe risk will extend into most if not all of the area. Temperature trends for the period will be above normal all days with highs well into the 90s. Normal highs for this time of year are in the upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 251 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Synoptically, the ridge to the west is forecast to mainly remain stationary over the Four Corners region, keeping us in northwesterly flow throughout the period. Guidance indicates the ridge may begin to amplify on Wednesday, and begin to de-amplify come Friday as a trough moves through the US/Canadian Border. Shortwaves are expected to move through the area during the week and into the weekend, increasing precipitation chances. High temperatures for the period will generally remain in the 90s. Wednesday appears to be the "coolest" day, with highs ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s. Friday is forecast to be the warmest, with highs in the upper 90s and the potential for a few locations to reach the low 100s. If the ridge begins to move eastward, then higher than forecasted temperatures could be seen. Winds are expected to remain calm to breezy throughout the period. Precipitation chances are present throughout the period. Wednesday and Thursday hold the highest potential, with PoPs in the 20-50% range, as shortwaves move through the area during the afternoon and evening hours. While instability and shear parameters appear sufficient for severe storms, model guidance suggests some variability in CAPE and shear values, which could lead to less organized storms and reduced severe chances. Precipitation chance then begins to taper off to 5-15% for Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1030 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the afternoon with mostly clear skies and light winds. Tonight, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move out of Colorado late this evening and overnight. There is around a 30% probability of impacting KGLD with brief gusty winds and visibility reductions due to rain. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...Holdren AVIATION...024  876 FXUS63 KJKL 222057 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 457 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front will bring a possibility of showers and thunderstorms to the area through this evening. - Some storms late this afternoon and evening could produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. - Noticeably cooler and less humid air will then arrive to start the new week, with mainly dry weather. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 250 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 At 1845Z, satellite shows a mix of low and mid level clouds. Showers and storms have initiated to the north along a weak disturbance extending from the southern shores of Lake Erie south to the Kentucky-West Virginia line. A cold front approaches eastern Kentucky from the northwest this afternoon, driven by shortwave energy and a deepening long wave upper level trough. As daytime heating aids destabilization, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected from mid-afternoon into early evening. Looking at the 12Z RAP this evening, a representative sounding near JKL depicted an environment with strong surface buoyancy (2400 J/kg), high DCAPE (1000-1100 J/kg), and steep low-level lapse rates (0-3 km lapse rate of 7.2 deg C/km). In addition, 0-6 km bulk shear at 40 kts along with MUCAPE slightly above 2500 J/kg this will help sustain organized updrafts. With BRN shear at 18 m2/s2, the environment as a whole favors multicell clusters with some supercellular elements. High DCAPE along with steep 0-3 km lapse rates, 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear, and the approaching cold front will support damaging gusts of most likely 45-60 mph. Hail will be a secondary hazard, though several limiting factors--such as anemic updrafts from poor mid-level lapse rates (6 deg C/km) and an elevated freezing level (13,000 feet)--may cause substantial melting before reaching the ground. The hodograph remains generally straight up to 200-300 mb (9 km) followed by a directional shift to the NNW, which could eject hail embryos aloft, further limiting hail size. Hail will be isolated and could reach quarter size, but will likely remain smaller. SPC has placed all but Wayne County in a Slight Risk for severe weather. The shortwave progresses east of the CWA later this evening, leading to clearing skies and light winds. Fog should form overnight, with valleys and locations that receive rain favored for dense fog. High pressure builds into the area from the Upper Midwest on Sunday, bringing a mix of sun and clouds along with cooler weather. Dew points dropping into the mid 50s to low 60s will make conditions feel much more comfortable. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 457 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 The long-term period opens with quiet weather Monday morning. The 22/12z model suite analysis shows mean troughing in place across the eastern CONUS around a parent ~558 dam low spinning near/over the Ottawa Valley. A smaller upstream closed ~570 dam low is transiting from southern Alberta into Saskatchewan. Meanwhile, an ~596 dam upper level high is centered near/over New Mexico. Translating down to the surface, an ~1005 mb surface low is nearly vertically stacked under the parent low between James Bay and Lake Ontario. Its cold front sweeps south-southeastward along the Carolina coast and then arcs southwest to west through the Gulf Coast states before extending back northwestward into the central Plains. Cool Canadian high pressure, cradled in the arc of the cold front, extends from northwestern Ontario to over the Commonwealth. Farther upstream, an ~1005 mb surface low is passing over southern Saskatchewan and dragging a trailing cold front through the Northern Rockies and Great Basin. For Monday through Tuesday, heights will gradually rise over the Ohio Valley as the first upper-level trough and its parent low shift away to the northeast and surface high pressure settles southeast, cresting over eastern Kentucky with PWATs close to 0.75 inches. With time, a warm front will try to ease back northward toward the Commonwealth, allowing PWATs to recover back toward 1.5 inches by late Wednesday. However, heights will fall slightly again mid- to late week as the aforementioned closed upper low over the Canadian Prairies digs southeast, opens, and reinforces troughing over the eastern CONUS for the remainder of the work week. This will support the next area of low pressure tracking into eastern Canada while its trailing cold front slides southward into the Ohio Valley Thursday into Friday. Drier weather may follow a second cold front heading into next weekend. In sensible weather terms, look for fair and cool weather through Tuesday night, with lows ranging in the 50s to near 60F and highs in the lower to mid 80s. Fog is likely in the mainstem river valleys late each night through mid-morning. Low to medium precipitation chances in the form of diurnally modulated showers and thunderstorms return on Wednesday and persist through Friday as the first cold front works through the region, before trending drier by Saturday. Look for highs ranging mainly in the mid 80s from Wednesday onward, while nighttime lows moderate into the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 A cold front and disturbance will approach during peak heating and result in isolated to scattered convection between about 18Z and 03Z. Some of the storms could contain strong to damaging wind gusts and some gusts in the 30 to 40KT range if not locally higher are not out of the question. PROB30 groups were included for a few hours at all sites for the potential for thunder on station for a brief period. Any convection could bring brief reductions to IFR if not lower. Winds will generally remain WSW to W at 5 to 10KT between 18Z and 00Z. Winds will trend to the northwest behind the front between 00Z and 06Z and slacken. Some fog development is favored after 06Z and IFR or lower reductions for areas mainly south of KSYM and KIOB are possible per guidance as high pressure builds in behind the front. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GINNICK LONG TERM...GEERTSON AVIATION...GINNICK/JP