473 FXUS61 KCTP 221901 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 301 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Severe thunderstorm watch in effect for the NW counties through 9 PM. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Strong to severe thunderstorms will roll into the west late this afternoon and evening. 2) Cold front will pass tonight cooling things off, and cooler air aloft under deep upper low will set up an unstable airmass for Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Strong to severe thunderstorms will roll into the west late this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for the 3 MW counties in CTP's CWA. Thinking is that the intitial batch/cluster of storms in OH will move slowly and not arrive in Warren Co until 5 PM (21Z) or later. The watch may need to be expanded a little to the east, and even extended a little in time (esp if it is expanded) past the current exp time of 9 PM (01Z). The main severe threat today is damaging wind gusts. But, the initial storms/clusters may have some rotation to them. Certainly worth monitoring the rainfall across tha area if the storms stay slow-moving. But, the wind field looks more linear/progressive as the night goes along. FFG in that area is 1.5-1.7"/1 hr. Not high, but also not all that low. ----------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Cold front will pass tonight cooling things off, and cooler air aloft under deep upper low will set up an unstable airmass for Sunday and Monday. The first batch of storms are ahead of the main cold front which is being driven SE by a digging/deepening upper low to our NW. The front will pass through late this evening in the NW and before morning in the SE. Thunder will continue to be possible overnight as the initial storms and then the front (with any additional storms) roll through. However, the loss of daytime instability and generally poorer severe components will cause the weakening of the storms to sub-severe levels. Expect some drying to occur overnight with dewpoints lowering slightly over the NW half of the CWA. If we get some clearing, the ambient moisture will help make fog again tonight. Temps aloft will cool substantially. Even at 8H, temps will drop 10C over the next 30hrs. The resulting instability, especially during the afternoon heating, will result in numerous SHRA/TSRA. The most-favorable conditions will be across the nrn half of the CWA Sunday where SPC has a MRGL risk for severe wind & hail. Maxes only in the 60s and a brisk W wind will make it feel much more like Sept/Oct than mid-Aug. Similar conditions are expected for Monday with the center of the upper low still hanging around our longitude and only moving slowly poleward. The SHRA/TSRA will likely be confined to only the nrn tier of counties in PA on Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Much of the area is VFR as of early aft. Still a bit of lower conditions across the far east. Timing of showers and storms in the 12Z TAF package looks good, so will use it. Best chance for a strong storm is near the across the far northwest part of PA, where higher dewpts are and also closer to the low pressure system. Also a coastal low will keep a chance of shower or perhaps a brief storm over the southeast. For Sunday, went with VCSH at BFD, but dry otherwise, as wind shift line is past our area. Outlook... Mon-Wed...Patchy morning fog, otherwise mainly VFR conditions return early next week. Thu...Chance of showers and storms again. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo DISCUSSION...Dangelo AVIATION...Martin  551 FXUS65 KFGZ 221902 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1202 PM MST Sat Aug 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Moderate monsoon conditions will continue through Monday, mainly along the higher terrain during the afternoon and evening hours. Then, as a high pressure system builds over Arizona, warmer and drier conditions are expected to develop by midweek as the flow of moisture northward into the region decreases. && .DISCUSSION...A 500 mb high pressure system located above west- central New Mexico is expected to slowly build westward by the middle of the upcoming week. In its current position, the high is supporting moderate monsoonal conditions as some moisture continues to be transported northward into northern Arizona, supporting shower and thunderstorms across and near the higher terrain during the afternoon and evening hours. Southerly steering flow will also push the developing showers and thunderstorms northward. This pattern is expected continue Monday, then as the high builds westward and over Arizona midweek this will slow the transport of monsoonal moisture and allow for drier and more stable air to develop over northern Arizona. This will lead to a decrease in the potential for showers and thunderstorms, along with allowing max daytime temperatures to climb a few decreases, especially in areas that have been experiencing increased cloud cover due to the current monsoonal pattern. && .AVIATION...Saturday 22/18Z through Sunday 23/18Z...VFR conditions mostly expected, but brief MVFR conditions possible in heavier SHRA/TSRA. Showers/storms forecast between 18Z-02Z, with greatest coverage along a KFLG-KSOW line and along the AZ/NM border. Outside of gusty/erratic outflow driven winds, look for variable winds 10 kts or less. OUTLOOK...Sunday 23/18Z through Tuesday 25/18Z...VFR conditions mostly expected. Daily chances for -SHRA/-TSRA possible, primarily across the higher terrain. Outside of gusty/erratic outflow driven winds, look for variable winds 10 kts or less. && .FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Expect daily chances for showers/thunderstorms, with greatest coverage across the higher terrain. Activity will ramp up around 11 AM MST each day, and continue through the evening hours. Storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, heavy rain, small hail, and frequent lightning. Outside of storm driven winds, look for variable winds generally 10 mph or less. Tuesday through Thursday...Drier conditions will gradually return, with activity becoming limited to the White Mountains Wednesday and Thursday. Daytime highs forecast to increase, reaching 8-15 degrees above normal. Look for southwest winds 5-15 mph each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Schank AVIATION...Konieczny FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  600 FXUS66 KHNX 221903 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1203 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Triple digit heat continues for San Joaquin Valley and Mojave Desert. 2. Monsoonal moisture brings 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada this afternoon. 3. 20-40% probability for extreme heat ending next week and starting September. && .DISCUSSION... Upper level disturbance expected to swing around the ridge pattern today and cross into the Upper Inter-Mountain West on Sunday. While slight changes in temperatures and winds will be observed Today, the location of the upper level disturbance will be too far north to generate significant drops in the temperatures or strong winds. Therefore, with Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 100 degrees average at around 60 to 80 percent from Fresno To Bakersfield, respectively, will see minimal change as max temperatures sit around around 100 degrees each day. Areas north of Fresno will have PoE between 10 and 30 percent as upper 90s will be more representative of the region. This situation will result in mostly Minor Heat Risk with patches of Moderate Heat Risk for most of the next seven days. Afterward, the disturbance will exit the region with a rebound of the ridge ahead of another disturbance traveling through the Pacific Northwest. These transitory disturbance will prevent any big warm-up for the next five to seven days as the ridge pattern will not be allowed to amplify. Furthermore, PoE of 105 degrees remains at near zero outside of the west side of Kings County and the Kern County portion of the San Joaquin Valley. The passage of the disturbance will also introduce an increase in the southwesterly to westerly wind component during the coming days. Currently, the flow is more southerly and is allowing for a northward surge of Monsoonal Moisture into the region. With the southwest winds aloft Today, enough orographic lift will exist to support thunderstorm development across the Sierra Nevada Crest. Latest ensemble probability of thunder is between a 10 and 20 percent chance of development this Afternoon from Yosemite to the Tulare and Kern County Line. By Sunday, the flow aloft becomes more westerly and forces the moisture to shift east and more into the Great Basin. Therefore, while convection is possible on Sunday, Central California will lose the ingredients for significant thunderstorm development as the probability of thunder drops to 5 to 10 percent. Probabilities continue to drop during the week as dry conditions prevail from Monday through at least Friday. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevailing for the next 24 hours. 10-20% probability of afternoon thunderstorms from 18Z Saturday to 3Z Sunday along the Sierra Nevada crest down to 6,000 feet elevation. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Public/Aviation....Molina weather.gov/hanford  630 FXUS61 KBUF 221904 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 304 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 PM EDT this evening for Orleans, Genesee, Wyoming, Allegany Counties and farther west in WNY. Damaging straight-line wind gusts are expected to be the main hazard with any severe storm. Only minor changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some severe, are expected through tonight. 2.) Unsettled weather continues Sunday through Tuesday. Monday is expected to be the coolest day of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some severe, are expected into tonight. Cyclonic S'erly to SW'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave troughs impact our region through tonight as a deepening mid/upper-level low wobbles SSE'ward from northern ON to the northern Great Lakes. At the surface, a consolidating and deepening low should wobble E'ward from the northern Great Lakes toward southeastern ON amidst mid/upper-level divergence and MSLP falls downstream of the low aloft. This low track should allow a warm front to continue drifting NE'ward through the Finger Lakes and the Eastern Lake Ontario Region through this evening and usher- in a moister air mass at the surface and aloft, while a cold front will continue sweeping E'ward from Lower MI and should reach far- western NY by daybreak Sunday. Intervals of sunshine and low- level WAA ahead of and behind the surface warm front will allow highs to reach mainly the mid 70's to lower 80's late this afternoon. Lows tonight should reach the mid 50's to mid 60's around daybreak Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, especially late this afternoon through tonight as weak to moderate CAPE, including elevated CAPE is released by the following: moist isentropic ascent ahead of shortwave trough axes, low-level convergence/moist ascent along the cold front, and downshear gust fronts interacting favorably with ambient low-level vertical wind shear in the warm sector. Note: the warm front passage will likely continue to be accompanied by dry weather as pockets of dry air at the surface and especially aloft precede the surface warm front. Deep-layer bulk shear is expected to remain moderate and diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer is expected to yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate DCAPE through this early evening, west of roughly the Genesee Valley. Thus, severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging straight-line wind gusts are a concern in and especially west of the Genesee Valley. Steepening mid-level lapse rates associated with mid/upper-level cooling associated with the deepening low/trough aloft and resulting increase in MUCAPE in the hail growth zone may allow a severe storm or two to produce damaging hail the size of quarters. The severe storm threat should end by late evening, following the onset of boundary layer stabilization via nocturnal cooling. Note: lake- effect rain showers and thunderstorms are possible east and especially southeast of Lake Erie toward and especially by daybreak, as 850 mb temperatures cool to near 10C over the ~24C lake amidst rich (i.e abundant/deep) synoptic-scale low-level moisture, sizable lake-induced CAPE/lake-induced EL's as high as 15kft to 25kft above lake level develop, and W'erly mean low- level flow veers quickly to NW'erly behind the cold front. Key Message 2...Unsettled weather continues Sunday through Tuesday. Monday is expected to be the coolest day of the upcoming week. Cyclonic flow aloft, mainly SW'erly on Sunday, should become W'erly to NW'erly Sunday night through Tuesday as the aforementioned mid/upper-level low wobbles E'ward from the northern Great Lakes toward southern QC through Monday and then NE'ward toward the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Tuesday. At the surface, the aforementioned low will weaken gradually as it wobbles NE'ward toward the Gulf of St. Lawrence and becomes vertically-stacked with the low aloft. The cold front should sweep E'ward through the rest of our CWA by early evening. Behind the front, a lake-aggregate surface trough should linger over/near the eastern Great Lakes through Monday before a surface ridge begins to build from the western Great Lakes by Tuesday. This weather pattern evolution at the surface and aloft will allow a cooler air mass to overspread our region behind the cold front and then linger through Tuesday. Daytime highs should reach mainly the mid 60's to mid 70's on Sunday. The coolest highs are expected in the higher terrain of Western NY. Daytime highs should reach only the 60's to lower 70's on Monday, when the core of the cooler air mass is expected to reside over our region. Slightly warmer highs, mainly in the mid 60's to mid 70's, are expected on Tuesday. Overnight lows should reach mainly the upper 40's to mid 50's Sunday night and Monday night. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of Sunday's cold front. A few of these storms may become severe roughly along and east of the Genesee Valley, where peeks of sunshine and daytime warming may yield weak to moderate boundary layer CAPE, steep low-level lapse rates, and moderate DCAPE amidst moderate deep-layer bulk shear in the warm sector. Behind the cold front, periods of lake-effect rain showers and thunderstorms are expected primarily east and southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario on Sunday through Tuesday as a sufficiently-cold/moist low-level air mass crosses the ~23C to ~24C lakes and sizable lake-induced CAPE continues to develop through Monday, but then begins to wane on Tuesday as a lowering/stabilizing subsidence inversion accompanies the building surface ridge. Shortwave trough passages preceded by SW'erly mean low-level flow should allow lake-effect showers/thunderstorms to impact locations generally northeast of the lakes, especially Lake Ontario, at times on Sunday and Monday, behind the cold front. Outside lake-effect showers and thunderstorms, additional rain showers are expected on Sunday through Tuesday as shortwave trough passages and attendant surface trough axes coincide with at least weak potential instability in the lowest ~1 km AGL. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface low pressure overhead of the central Great Lakes this afternoon will slide east into the eastern Great Lakes, pushing a pair of fronts across the region this evening and overnight. These surface features are what are driving the line of scattered convection across the Ohio Valley and the center of Lake Erie as of 17Z. This line is expected to progress eastward this afternoon (18Z to 00Z), spreading convection inland. With the better instability across far WNY, a few of the thunderstorms may become severe, producing gusty winds in excess of 50kts. Overall flight conditions will remain VFR, with the exception of the aforementioned thunderstorms where conditions may drop down to brief and localized MVFR/IFR from ceilings and visibility. With the cold frontal passage this evening (after 00Z/Sun), widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will pass east across the area, causing ceilings to drop to widespread MVFR with a swath of IFR conditions across the western Southern Tier (impacting KJHW) and the higher elevations east of Lake Ontario. Wrap around moisture and cooler temperatures aloft in the wake of the front Sunday morning will support lake enhanced showers east of Lakes Erie and Ontario Sunday, which will maintain widespread low end VFR ceilings with MVFR ceilings within any lake effect showers and clouds east of the Lakes. Outlook... Monday...Periodic showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms with associated MVFR/IFR, with mainly VFR expected outside of any precipitation. Monday night through Tuesday night...Lake effect rain, mainly east and southeast of the Lakes with associated restrictions diminishing off Lake Erie Monday night and Tuesday and off Lake Ontario Tuesday and Tuesday night. Otherwise mainly VFR. Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Thursday...Mainly VFR, except MVFR/IFR conditions possible from scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Behind a departing area of surface high pressure, a modest southeasterly to southerly flow will continue through the day today. A deepening area of low pressure passing just north of the Lakes will push first a warm front (today) and later a cold front (Sunday) across the lakes...with showers and a few thunderstorms along each frontal boundary. Behind the cold front Sunday, an upper level low will bring an early taste of autumn with a brisk west wind developing within a decently strong pressure gradient and moderate instability over the Lakes. While initial southerly flow Sunday should bring Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions to the lakes Sunday, the southwest flow under the upper level low Sunday night through Monday night, and then westerly flow Tuesday, will likely continue the choppy waters on the Lakes with SCA likely. In addition to the brisk winds, there will be the potential for waterspouts with the development of sizable lake-induced instability combined with the cool air associated with cyclonic flow around the upper-level low over the warm lakes. Initial waterspout development will be as early as tonight over Lake Erie and Sunday over Lake Ontario. This threat should continue through Tuesday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jaszka AVIATION...EAL MARINE...Jaszka/Thomas  669 FXUS62 KMHX 221905 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 305 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased pops and tstorm chances for coastal zones Sun afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Localized severe threat for coastal areas Sun afternoon. Drier inland and northern areas. 2) A thunderstorm risk, some potentially severe, for Mon afternoon for coastal areas again. 3) Perhaps some drier weather for Tue, but then more unsettled pattern may return for mid to late week with sct afternoon showers/storms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Another mid-level shortwave will lift northeastward through the SE and Mid Atlantic on Sunday. With a seabreeze pinned east of Hwy 17, these two features will act in tandem to produce sct thunderstorms Sun afternoon into the evening. Some of these storms may be strong to marginally svr, as 2,600+ J/KG of CAPE and 25-30+ kt of shear will be in place. Have inc pops near the coast to 40-60%, while interior zones are in the 10-20% range. Best chance of svr storms will be east of Hwy 17 stretching from around Richlands to New Bern to Englehard. With recent heavy rains, a localized flood threat may materialize, as PW's are still in the 90th or higher percentile range. KEY MESSAGE 2...Similar setup for Mon, as area is on east side of broad level troughing with yet more shortwave energy swinging through and front hung up near the coast interacting with afternoon seabreeze. EFI for CAPE/Shear is around the 80th percentile, suggesting a severe risk if storms can develop and organize. Best chances again for eastern zonesw. KEY MESSAGE 3...An anomalously strong upper level trough is forecast to translate east and finally move offshore by Tue but then dampen with return of sswrly flow and moisture off the GOM. This will bring more unsettled wx back to ENC in the form of shbowers and storms with pops back into the 40-60% range, peaking in the afternoon to early evening. Temps will be back to slightly above climo, esp for the overnight periods as warm/humid airmass will be in place. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecast confidence is low to moderate with respect to IFR/LIFR fg or low stratus. Have sided with persistence again and a more pessimistic fcst than much of the guidance, which has low chances of IFR/LIFR. With no real change in airmass, low level moisture will remain trapped, and with calm winds/mo skc skies tonight, fog and low stratus should develop again for the coastal plain counties. Have several hours of low cigs and fg for ISO and PGV, while KEWN and KOAJ have a somewhat lesser chance of these conditions developing. Any fog or low stratus will dissipate in the morning, leading to VFR conditions again. Some showers and storms possible in the afternoon, esp OAJ and EWN and may need to mention this threat in future updates. Outlook (Sun night through Thu): Mainly VFR, though patchy fog/low stratus may develop each night. More unsettled weather returns for Wed into late week, with tempo reductions in cigs and vsby. && .MARINE... Ocnl tsra will ride up over the Gulf Stream tonight, producing locally strong winds and frequent lightning. Otherwise, swrly winds remain in the 5-15 kt range with seas of 2-4 ft through Sunday. Outlook (Sun night through Thu): Cont wrly to swrly winds expected through next week, but speeds will cont in the 5-15 kt range through next week with seas no higher than 2-3 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TL AVIATION...TL MARINE...TL  846 FXUS65 KABQ 221908 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 108 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1216 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue today and Sunday mainly along and west of the central mountain chain with a risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, and ponding of water on roads. - Smoke from the Frijoles Fire will continue to impact air quality in the vicinity of the fire this week. - Moderate-to-high heat risk will impact much of central and eastern New Mexico this weekend through the middle of next week with record and near-record high temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Storms so far today have been mostly concentrated over the western and northern high terrain with spatially small cells moving very slowly as the stout 598 decameter high settles over NM. GOES total precipitable water values are showing lowest values of 0.6 to 0.8 inch over the Sangre de Cristos which was modeled quite well yesterday. Elsewhere readings rise to 0.8 to 1.1 inch with the highest values found in the climatologically expected eastern plains. Even with these PWATs, the surface dewpoints in the 40's and low 50's and hot temperatures in the 80's, 90's, and low 100's are creating some large dewpoint depressions that are impeding rainfall efficiency. The high is also producing sluggish steering flow that is making it hard for cells to move off of the high terrain. The catch-22 for many nearby lower elevations is that they will be dependent on stronger nearby high terrain storms that can create sufficient mesoscale cold pools and outflow boundaries moving into lower elevations before new lower elevation storms can be regenerated through the evening. Hot temperatures are also underway, and the Heat Advisory will continue for Chaves and Quay counties through 8 PM MDT. Storms are modeled to largely dissipate before midnight with a few less vigorous showers surviving into the early morning hours. Another Heat Advisory might be needed for Sunday. Currently, this updated forecast only has Roswell meeting criteria (105 F), but a few locations are encroaching upon record high temperatures which might be justification for expansion. A subtle perturbation still looks to move eastward over the central Rockies in CO with subsequent storms sending outflow and perhaps additional storms into northern NM late Sunday. Otherwise, western high terrain areas will remain the favored area for storm development Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The upper high is advertised to settle more concentrically over NM into Monday with heights reducing a decameter or two, down to 596-597 at 500 mb. Southeasterly return flow at the surface will meet up with a weak, moist backdoor front on Monday with convergence and upslope flow aligning over northeastern NM where storms would be focused. The east southeast surface winds coupled with west northwesterly winds aloft could yield sufficient directional shear for a strong to severe storm or two late Monday afternoon into the evening. More sparse storms will continue developing along and near the Continental Divide Monday, and a near-persistence temperature forecast will keep heat impacts front and center for many NM zones. A reinforcing backdoor boundary could slide back into southeastern CO, southwestern KS, and far northeastern NM with perhaps another perturbation aloft along the CO front range on Tuesday. The NAM is even more invasive with this backdoor boundary, carrying it much farther southward into the NM plains. Regardless of exactlocation, this boundary will once again help ignite storm development while providing enough directional shear for a few more strong to severe cells Tuesday. By this time, recycling of available moisture would be more difficult for western zones, and less coverage is possible there. Tuesday's convection will help govern the placement of the moist, unstable plains airmass going into the day Wednesday. For now, it is modeled to be draped over northeast to east central NM and possibly toward the high terrain of Lincoln county which would lead to farther southward expansion of storms Wednesday afternoon. Into Thursday, the upper high will be settling into southwestern NM or eastern AZ. Surface winds look to veer more southeasterly or southerly with areas along and east of the central mountain chain appearing to be the best poised for scattered storms Thursday afternoon and evening. Moisture and instability would be then be tempered some into Friday with storms tending to stay more focused over and near the high terrain. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Less overall shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast today with storms tending to be focused over the western and northern high terrain early in the afternoon before struggling to fill into nearby valleys and lower elevations through the early evening. Storms will be capable of producing small hail, lightning, gusty downburst winds, and brief downpours that will temporarily reduce ceilings and visibility. Storms will mostly come to an end before midnight with just a few stray showers lingering into the early morning Sunday. A similar thunderstorm pattern will unfold again on Sunday. Hot temperatures and high density altitude readings will cause aircraft performance to deteriorate for some. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The monsoon high will be stronger than normal for the next several days, keeping temperatures 5 to 12 degrees above average. The high will also limit storms for the rest of the weekend, generally keeping cells confined to northern and western NM. This regime will keep daily rounds of low afternoon humidity (12-20%) in the forecast through the weekend. Storms will then trend up in northeastern NM Monday and Tuesday before expanding into more of the eastern half of the state on Wednesday as weak, but moist backdoor fronts move in. With high temperatures only getting reduced a couple to a few degrees in eastern zones, readings will still stay above normal area-wide through late next week. Humidity will recover better in areas impacted by the backdoor fronts (morning recoveries of 60-80%), but elsewhere humidity will only rebound to 40-60% in the mornings. Storms could then reduce in number and coverage again by late in the upcoming work week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 66 94 64 95 / 20 10 5 5 Dulce........................... 52 90 51 91 / 30 30 20 10 Cuba............................ 59 88 60 91 / 20 20 20 10 Gallup.......................... 57 90 57 90 / 30 30 30 20 El Morro........................ 56 85 55 86 / 40 40 30 20 Grants.......................... 58 89 58 90 / 20 40 20 20 Quemado......................... 58 86 58 87 / 20 40 20 20 Magdalena....................... 63 88 63 89 / 20 20 10 20 Datil........................... 58 85 58 86 / 20 30 20 20 Reserve......................... 58 93 57 93 / 20 30 10 20 Glenwood........................ 63 98 64 98 / 20 20 10 20 Chama........................... 53 83 52 85 / 30 40 20 30 Los Alamos...................... 64 86 63 87 / 20 40 40 20 Pecos........................... 59 89 59 90 / 20 10 20 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 57 84 56 85 / 30 60 30 30 Red River....................... 45 77 46 79 / 30 50 30 40 Angel Fire...................... 42 81 38 82 / 20 30 30 50 Taos............................ 57 88 56 89 / 20 40 20 20 Mora............................ 55 86 55 86 / 30 30 30 50 Espanola........................ 60 93 61 94 / 20 30 30 10 Santa Fe........................ 63 89 63 91 / 20 20 20 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 61 92 62 94 / 20 10 20 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 94 69 96 / 20 5 20 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 69 95 70 97 / 20 5 20 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 66 97 64 98 / 20 5 20 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 96 68 97 / 20 10 20 5 Belen........................... 67 98 67 99 / 10 5 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 68 96 67 98 / 20 5 20 5 Bosque Farms.................... 65 97 64 98 / 20 5 10 0 Corrales........................ 68 97 67 98 / 20 5 20 5 Los Lunas....................... 66 97 66 98 / 10 5 10 0 Placitas........................ 66 93 67 94 / 20 5 20 5 Rio Rancho...................... 68 95 68 97 / 20 5 20 5 Socorro......................... 70 99 70 99 / 10 5 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 89 64 90 / 20 5 20 5 Tijeras......................... 64 90 64 92 / 20 5 20 5 Edgewood........................ 60 90 61 92 / 20 5 20 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 57 92 57 94 / 20 5 10 10 Clines Corners.................. 61 89 61 91 / 20 5 10 10 Mountainair..................... 61 91 61 92 / 20 5 0 10 Gran Quivira.................... 62 91 62 92 / 10 0 0 10 Carrizozo....................... 67 94 68 96 / 10 5 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 58 87 60 89 / 10 10 0 10 Capulin......................... 58 88 56 88 / 20 50 40 50 Raton........................... 58 91 55 92 / 20 50 30 60 Springer........................ 58 94 56 94 / 30 40 40 30 Las Vegas....................... 58 90 58 90 / 20 20 20 30 Clayton......................... 67 97 66 97 / 10 30 40 30 Roy............................. 63 95 61 94 / 20 20 30 20 Conchas......................... 70 102 69 101 / 10 5 20 5 Santa Rosa...................... 68 99 67 98 / 10 5 10 5 Tucumcari....................... 71 103 71 103 / 5 0 10 5 Clovis.......................... 70 100 71 101 / 0 0 0 5 Portales........................ 71 102 72 102 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 70 102 70 102 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 70 105 71 105 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 66 98 67 99 / 0 5 0 5 Elk............................. 62 93 63 95 / 5 5 0 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ234-238. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...52  166 FXUS63 KABR 221911 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 211 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 20-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms during the day Sunday into early Sunday evening over central SD, expanding to northeastern SD/west central MN Sunday night while increasing to a 40-60% chance. - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather Sunday evening night over much of central to northeastern SD. The main concerns will be golf ball size hail, wind gusts exceeding 60 mph, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall. - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather Monday night. Threat include one inch hail and 60 mph. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A surface high pressure over the region is producing tranquil weather conditions across the CWA. The high pressure will shift eastward tonight, allowing for warm air advection and increasing LLM to move into the central part of the state. Various CAMS depict weak showers and thunderstorms developing in central-south central SD between 10-15Z. These storms may dissipate or move into northern Nebraska. However, there is a 20-25 percent chance the showers become a weak broken line associated with the WAA over central and north central SD. A good portion of the CWA is under a marginal risk for severe storms, mainly Sunday afternoon and evening. There are some signals among models with convection developing over south central ND around midday, or the juxtaposition of the warm front/cold front location. These storms may grow upscale into a cold pool MCS, tracking southeastward across the CWA. The instability and deep layer shear appears best along and west of the Highway 83, with a decent drop off further east. If an individual storm is able to tap into the instability, the severe threat may be golf ball size hail and wind gusts exceeding 60 mph. The precipitation potential placement reaches near two inches, with is an indication of locally heavy rainfall with some storms. The showers and thunderstorms should exit the CWA around 12Z, with mostly dry conditions and above average temperatures on Monday. A frontal boundary sliding southward Monday night will bring a 20 to 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Some storms may produce quarter size hail and/or 60 mph winds. After a period of dry conditions midweek, another storm system will produce 30-45 percent chance of pcpn Friday night. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Prevailing VFR conditions can be for all terminals through the valid taf period. Will maintain a PROB30 for showers around the KPIR area between 11-15Z. More widespread showers and thunderstorms may impact KMBG toward the end of the taf period. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...17 AVIATION...17  347 FXUS66 KMTR 221914 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1214 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages continue through the next week - Warm and dry conditions persist above 1000 feet && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 (Today and tonight) The skies are generally clear for now with patches of stratus in favored locations and some high level clouds continuing to stream across the interior. Offshore, a blob of cooler air lurks offshore, evidenced by a robust stratus deck set up off the North Bay and the San Mateo Peninsula. Through the rest of the night, this stratus deck is expected to expand to the coastal areas and build inland through the post-sunrise hours when the stratus will begin to gradually clear out. The region remains under the influence of the balance between a cutoff low located around 200 miles west of Cape Blanco along the southern coast of Oregon, and an upper level ridge with an axis extending along the crest of the Rocky Mountains. Altogether this pattern will result in temperatures which are near to slightly below the seasonal averages, with highs today ranging from the upper 70s to the lower 90s in the inland valleys, the middle 90s into the triple digits for the warmest interior spots, especially the southern tier of Monterey County, across the 70s for areas near the Bays, and the 60s for areas along the Pacific coast. The marine layer remains relatively stable at around 1000-1500 feet, with warm and dry conditions persisting above the marine layer inversion as relative humidity values reach the 10-30% range. Winds remain relatively light and develop in an onshore flow pattern, with wind gusts reaching 20 to 30 miles per hour along the coast, through favored gaps and passes, and within the northern Salinas Valley. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 (Sunday through Friday) More of the same pattern is anticipated for the rest of the week's forecast, with a generally southwesterly upper level flow over the region as the series of eastern Pacific troughs continues to balance the ridge over the Desert Southwest. High temperatures are expected to hover around the upper 70s to the lower 90s for the inland valleys and the middle 60s to upper 70s near the Bays, with a subtle drop in the temperatures in the early part of next week before the ridge tries to build back towards the west. As noted by the previous forecaster, a couple of broad low pressure areas to the south of Baja California could develop into tropical systems sometime within the 7-day outlook, and how those systems interact with the ridge is highly uncertain at this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR through the afternoon with diurnally influenced and moderate onshore flow. The OAK sounding from this morning measured the marine layer at a depth of 1500 feet which is consistent with the past couple of nights. However, due to dry air entrainment, stratus has been patchy through the morning and will continue to remain so through the TAF period. That being said, as the upper level low moves northeastward, high pressure continues to creep in which will slightly compress the marine layer. The combination of dry air entrainment and slight compression will limit stratus expansion into the interior East and South Bay valley terminals. At sites where stratus develops, ceilings are expected to remain IFR to MVFR. Low to medium confidence on the exact arrival of stratus, though generally expect a later onset. North Bay terminals may experience a weak, short-lived offshore flow overnight whichwill further delay IFR stratus development and shorten its duration. As a result, low confidence on whether the marine layer will reach APC. Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions with moderate westerlies are forecast through the day. The increased pressure gradient will result in gusty onshore flow through the afternoon and winds ease around sunset. The marine layer is expected to be deep enough to reach SFO overnight, but it is a matter of when. Medium confidence on the exact timing as ceilings may develop a few hours earlier than forecast (09-12Z Sunday). Stratus should have a similar clearing time of 17-18Z Sunday. SFO Bridge Approach...Stratus may be more patchy in nature early morning Sunday. Otherwise, similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Clear skies with a few high clouds prevail through the afternoon with onshore winds around 10 to 15 kt. The offshore stratus feed continues to look messy, therefore a later stratus arrival is forecast this TAF period with medium confidence. IFR ceilings will impact both terminals overnight and persist through the middle of Sunday morning. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1212 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Northwest winds increase to a fresh to strong breeze with slight to moderate seas. Near gale force gusts are possible across the coastal waters, particularly near Point Sur and Point Reyes. Hazardous conditions for small crafts persist today for the bay and coastal waters. Conditions are expected to improve by Sunday night into early next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Navarrete MARINE...Navarrete Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  425 FXUS61 KBOX 221915 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 315 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Spotty light showers/drizzle tonight but much of the time it will be dry. More humid Sun with a few showers & t-storms possible especially near & west of the CT River Valley where an isolated strong-severe t-storm or two is possible. - Drier with a return to seasonable temperatures next week. Rain chances return Thursday/Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Spotty light showers/drizzle tonight but much of the time it will be dry. More humid Sun with a few showers & t-storms possible especially near & west of the CT River Valley where an isolated strong-severe t-storm or two is possible. Weak offshore low pressure will continue to result in moist/light NE low level flow into tonight. The result will be rather cloudy skies tonight with just some spotty light showers/drizzle at times...but this activity will be quite light with much of the time featuring dry weather. Some shortwave energy may allow for a few elevated heavier showers and perhaps a couple t-storms to develop near the southeast New England coast toward daybreak...mainly near the Cape and Islands. Some of the earlier model guidance has this activity further west...but latest indicating that the main risk for this will be towards the Cape and Islands closer to the shortwave energy. Overnight low temps will only drop into the lower to middle 60s given clouds and an abundance of low level moisture. Areas of fog will be possible too...especially near the coast and in the Worcester Hills. Again...we will need to watch for a few showers and isolated t- storms near the Cape and Islands early Sun morning. Otherwise...the main concern for a few showers and thunderstorms will be Sun afternoon/early evening given diurnal instability and shortwave energy to our west. The bulk of the height falls/forcing will be to our west. Therefore...greatest risk for a few showers and thunderstorms will be near and west of the CT River Valley Sun afternoon/early evening. Instability will be limited by a lot of cloud cover...but effective shear of 40+ knots will result in the low risk for an isolated strong to severe severe thunderstorm or two. Main severe weather risk would be a very localized damaging wind gusts and brief torrential rainfall. Greatest risk for this would near and west of the CT River Valley. That being said...much of the day will feature dry weather...but with a bit more humidity compared to this afternoon. Highs will be in the 70s to near 80. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier with a return to seasonable temperatures next week. Rain chances return Thursday/Friday. A post-frontal air mass will usher in drier conditions and warmer temperatures with westerly winds Monday. As skies gradually clear from the dreary weekend, dewpoints will begin to drop slightly... into the upper 50s as opposed to the low to mid 60s we've been seeing. High pressure begins to slowly build Tuesday into Wednesday, prolonging the clear skies, drier weather, and warmer temperatures through the middle of the week. Chances for rain showers return Thursday and Friday as a low pressure system develops over the Great Lakes and meanders east through southern Ontario. Some uncertainty regarding the onset of the showers as there's little consistency in the global ensembles on the actual placement of the low as it tracks through Canada. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update... This afternoon through tonight...Moderate confidence. Mainly MVFR conditions at mid-aftternoon will deteriorate to generally IFR with localized IFR cigs/vsbys tonight. A few spotty showers/light drizzle and fog patches are possible at times too. Perhaps a few heavier showers and isolated t-storms graze areas towards the Cape and Islands toward daybreak Sun. Calm/light NE winds. Sunday and Sunday night...Moderate confidence. Mainly IFR with localized LIFR conditions Sun morning should improve to mainly MVFR-VFR levels by Sun afternoon/night. A few showers and t-storms are possible too with the greatest risk near and west of the CT River Valley during the afternoon/early evening. Light ENE gradually becoming light S by Sun night. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight through Sunday night...High confidence. A wave of low pressure across the waters will be lifting into the Canadian Maritimes tonight. The pressure gradient though will remain weak enough to keep winds/seas below small craft advisory thresholds through Sunday night. Areas of fog will reduce visibilities for mariners at times especially later tonight into Sun morning. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 6 PM EDT this evening for MAZ019- 022. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Frank/McMinn AVIATION...Frank/McMinn MARINE...Frank/McMinn  457 FXUS61 KBUF 221916 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 304 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 PM EDT this evening for Orleans, Genesee, Wyoming, Allegany Counties and farther west in WNY. Damaging straight-line wind gusts are expected to be the main hazard with any severe storm. Only minor changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some severe, are expected through tonight. 2.) Unsettled weather continues Sunday through Tuesday. Monday is expected to be the coolest day of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some severe, are expected into tonight. Cyclonic S'erly to SW'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave troughs impact our region through tonight as a deepening mid/upper-level low wobbles SSE'ward from northern ON to the northern Great Lakes. At the surface, a consolidating and deepening low should wobble E'ward from the northern Great Lakes toward southeastern ON amidst mid/upper-level divergence and MSLP falls downstream of the low aloft. This low track should allow a warm front to continue drifting NE'ward through the Finger Lakes and the Eastern Lake Ontario Region through this evening and usher- in a moister air mass at the surface and aloft, while a cold front will continue sweeping E'ward from Lower MI and should reach far- western NY by daybreak Sunday. Intervals of sunshine and low- level WAA ahead of and behind the surface warm front will allow highs to reach mainly the mid 70's to lower 80's late this afternoon. Lows tonight should reach the mid 50's to mid 60's around daybreak Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, especially late this afternoon through tonight as weak to moderate CAPE, including elevated CAPE is released by the following: moist isentropic ascent ahead of shortwave trough axes, low-level convergence/moist ascent along the cold front, and downshear gust fronts interacting favorably with ambient low-level vertical wind shear in the warm sector. Note: the warm front passage will likely continue to be accompanied by dry weather as pockets of dry air at the surface and especially aloft precede the surface warm front. Deep-layer bulk shear is expected to remain moderate and diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer is expected to yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate DCAPE through this early evening, west of roughly the Genesee Valley. Thus, severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging straight-line wind gusts are a concern in and especially west of the Genesee Valley. Steepening mid-level lapse rates associated with mid/upper-level cooling associated with the deepening low/trough aloft and resulting increase in MUCAPE in the hail growth zone may allow a severe storm or two to produce damaging hail the size of quarters. The severe storm threat should end by late evening, following the onset of boundary layer stabilization via nocturnal cooling. Note: lake- effect rain showers and thunderstorms are possible east and especially southeast of Lake Erie toward and especially by daybreak, as 850 mb temperatures cool to near 10C over the ~24C lake amidst rich (i.e abundant/deep) synoptic-scale low-level moisture, sizable lake-induced CAPE/lake-induced EL's as high as 15kft to 25kft above lake level develop, and W'erly mean low- level flow veers quickly to NW'erly behind the cold front. Key Message 2...Unsettled weather continues Sunday through Tuesday. Monday is expected to be the coolest day of the upcoming week. Cyclonic flow aloft, mainly SW'erly on Sunday, should become W'erly to NW'erly Sunday night through Tuesday as the aforementionedmid/upper-level low wobbles E'ward from the northern Great Lakes toward southern QC through Monday and then NE'ward toward the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Tuesday. At the surface, the aforementioned low will weaken gradually as it wobbles NE'ward toward the Gulf of St. Lawrence and becomes vertically-stacked with the low aloft. The cold front should sweep E'ward through the rest of our CWA by early evening. Behind the front, a lake-aggregate surface trough should linger over/near the eastern Great Lakes through Monday before a surface ridge begins to build from the western Great Lakes by Tuesday. This weather pattern evolution at the surface and aloft will allow a cooler air mass to overspread our region behind the cold front and then linger through Tuesday. Daytime highs should reach mainly the mid 60's to mid 70's on Sunday. The coolest highs are expected in the higher terrain of Western NY. Daytime highs should reach only the 60's to lower 70's on Monday, when the core of the cooler air mass is expected to reside over our region. Slightly warmer highs, mainly in the mid 60's to mid 70's, are expected on Tuesday. Overnight lows should reach mainly the upper 40's to mid 50's Sunday night and Monday night. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of Sunday's cold front. A few of these storms may become severe roughly along and east of the Genesee Valley, where peeks of sunshine and daytime warming may yield weak to moderate boundary layer CAPE, steep low-level lapse rates, and moderate DCAPE amidst moderate deep-layer bulk shear in the warm sector. Behind the cold front, periods of lake-effect rain showers and thunderstorms are expected primarily east and southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario on Sunday through Tuesday as a sufficiently-cold/moist low-level air mass crosses the ~23C to ~24C lakes and sizable lake-induced CAPE continues to develop through Monday, but then begins to wane on Tuesday as a lowering/stabilizing subsidence inversion accompanies the building surface ridge. Shortwave trough passages preceded by SW'erly mean low-level flow should allow lake-effect showers/thunderstorms to impact locations generally northeast of the lakes, especially Lake Ontario, at times on Sunday and Monday, behind the cold front. Outside lake-effect showers and thunderstorms, additional rain showers are expected on Sunday through Tuesday as shortwave trough passages and attendant surface trough axes coincide with at least weak potential instability in the lowest ~1 km AGL. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface low pressure overhead of the central Great Lakes this afternoon will slide east into the eastern Great Lakes, pushing a pair of fronts across the region this evening and overnight. These surface features are what are driving the line of scattered convection across the Ohio Valley and the center of Lake Erie as of 17Z. This line is expected to progress eastward this afternoon (18Z to 00Z), spreading convection inland. With the better instability across far WNY, a few of the thunderstorms may become severe, producing gusty winds in excess of 50kts. Overall flight conditions will remain VFR, with the exception of the aforementioned thunderstorms where conditions may drop down to brief and localized MVFR/IFR from ceilings and visibility. With the cold frontal passage this evening (after 00Z/Sun), widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will pass east across the area, causing ceilings to drop to widespread MVFR with a swath of IFR conditions across the western Southern Tier (impacting KJHW) and the higher elevations east of Lake Ontario. Wrap around moisture and cooler temperatures aloft in the wake of the front Sunday morning will support lake enhanced showers east of Lakes Erie and Ontario Sunday, which will maintain widespread low end VFR ceilings with MVFR ceilings within any lake effect showers and clouds east of the Lakes. Outlook... Monday...Periodic showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms with associated MVFR/IFR, with mainly VFR expected outside of any precipitation. Monday night through Tuesday night...Lake effect rain, mainly east and southeast of the Lakes with associated restrictions diminishing off Lake Erie Monday night and Tuesday and off Lake Ontario Tuesday and Tuesday night. Otherwise mainly VFR. Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Thursday...Mainly VFR, except MVFR/IFR conditions possible from scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Behind a departing area of surface high pressure, a modest southeasterly to southerly flow will continue through the day today. A deepening area of low pressure passing just north of the Lakes will push first a warm front (today) and later a cold front (Sunday) across the lakes...with showers and a few thunderstorms along each frontal boundary. Behind the cold front Sunday, an upper level low will bring an early taste of autumn with a brisk west wind developing within a decently strong pressure gradient and moderate instability over the Lakes. While initial southerly flow Sunday should bring Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions to the lakes Sunday, the southwest flow under the upper level low Sunday night through Monday night, and then westerly flow Tuesday, will likely continue the choppy waters on the Lakes with SCA likely. In addition to the brisk winds, there will be the potential for waterspouts with the development of sizable lake-induced instability as cool air associated with cyclonic flow around the upper-level low crosses the warm lakes. Greater waterspout potential will materialize as early as tonight over Lake Erie and Sunday over Lake Ontario. The waterspout threat should continue through Tuesday. However, expected thunderstorms over Lake Erie this afternoon into evening may produce waterspouts as well, especially if storms organize into a line. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jaszka AVIATION...EAL MARINE...Jaszka/Thomas  553 FXUS61 KBUF 221918 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 304 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 PM EDT this evening for Orleans, Genesee, Wyoming, Allegany Counties and farther west in WNY. Damaging straight-line wind gusts are expected to be the main hazard with any severe storm. Only minor changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some severe, are expected through tonight. 2.) Unsettled weather continues Sunday through Tuesday. Monday is expected to be the coolest day of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some severe, are expected into tonight. Cyclonic S'erly to SW'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave troughs impact our region through tonight as a deepening mid/upper-level low wobbles SSE'ward from northern ON to the northern Great Lakes. At the surface, a consolidating and deepening low should wobble E'ward from the northern Great Lakes toward southeastern ON amidst mid/upper-level divergence and MSLP falls downstream of the low aloft. This low track should allow a warm front to continue drifting NE'ward through the Finger Lakes and the Eastern Lake Ontario Region through this evening and usher-in a somewhat warmer and moister air mass at the surface and aloft, while a cold front will continue sweeping E'ward from Lower MI and should reach far-Western NY by daybreak Sunday. Intervals of sunshine and low-level WAA ahead of and behind the surface warm front will allow highs to reach mainly the mid 70's to lower 80's late this afternoon. Lows tonight should reach the mid 50's to mid 60's around daybreak Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, especially late this afternoon through tonight as weak to moderate CAPE, including elevated CAPE is released by the following: moist isentropic ascent ahead of shortwave trough axes, low-level convergence/moist ascent along the cold front, and downshear gust fronts interacting favorably with ambient low-level vertical wind shear in the warm sector. Note: the warm front passage will likely continue to be accompanied by dry weather as pockets of dry air at the surface and especially aloft precede the surface warm front. Deep-layer bulk shear is expected to remain moderate and diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer is expected to yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate DCAPE through this early evening, west of roughly the Genesee Valley. Thus, severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging straight-line wind gusts are a concern in and especially west of the Genesee Valley. Steepening mid-level lapse rates associated with mid/upper-level cooling associated with the deepening low/trough aloft and resulting increase in MUCAPE in the hail growth zone may allow a severe storm or two to produce damaging hail the size of quarters. The severe storm threat should end by late evening, following the onset of boundary layer stabilization via nocturnal cooling. Note: lake- effect rain showers and thunderstorms are possible east and especially southeast of Lake Erie toward and especially by daybreak, as 850 mb temperatures cool to near 10C over the ~24C lake amidst rich (i.e abundant/deep) synoptic-scale low-level moisture, sizable lake-induced CAPE/lake-induced EL's as high as 15kft to 25kft above lake level develop, and W'erly mean low- level flow veers quickly to NW'erly behind the cold front. Key Message 2...Unsettled weather continues Sunday through Tuesday. Monday is expected to be the coolest day of the upcoming week. Cyclonic flow aloft, mainly SW'erly on Sunday, should become W'erly to NW'erly Sunday night through Tuesday as the aforementioned mid/upper-level low wobbles E'ward from the northern Great Lakes toward southern QC through Monday and then NE'ward toward the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Tuesday. At the surface, the aforementioned low will weaken gradually as it wobbles NE'ward toward the Gulf of St. Lawrence and becomes vertically-stacked with the low aloft. The cold front should sweep E'ward through the rest of our CWA by early evening. Behind the front, a lake-aggregate surface trough should linger over/near the eastern Great Lakes through Monday before a surface ridge begins to build from the western Great Lakes by Tuesday. This weather pattern evolution at the surface and aloft will allow a cooler air mass to overspread our region behind the cold front and then linger through Tuesday. Daytime highs should reach mainly the mid 60's to mid 70's on Sunday. The coolest highs are expected in the higher terrain of Western NY. Daytime highs should reach only the 60's to lower 70's on Monday, when the core of the cooler air mass is expected to reside over our region. Slightly warmer highs, mainly in the mid 60's to mid 70's, are expected on Tuesday. Overnight lows should reach mainly the upper 40's to mid 50's Sunday night and Monday night. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of Sunday's cold front. A few of these storms may become severe roughly along and east of the Genesee Valley, where peeks of sunshine and daytime warming may yield weak to moderate boundary layer CAPE, steep low-level lapse rates, and moderate DCAPE amidst moderate deep-layer bulk shear in the warm sector. Behind the cold front, periods of lake-effect rain showers and thunderstorms are expected primarily east and southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario on Sunday through Tuesday as a sufficiently-cold/moist low-level air mass crosses the ~23C to ~24C lakes and sizable lake-induced CAPE continues to develop through Monday, but then begins to wane on Tuesday as a lowering/stabilizing subsidence inversion accompanies the building surface ridge. Shortwave trough passages preceded by SW'erly mean low-level flow should allow lake-effect showers/thunderstorms to impact locations generally northeast of the lakes, especially Lake Ontario, at times on Sunday and Monday, behind the cold front. Outside lake-effect showers and thunderstorms, additional rain showers are expected on Sunday through Tuesday as shortwave trough passages and attendant surface trough axes coincide with at least weak potential instability in the lowest ~1 km AGL. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface low pressure overhead of the central Great Lakes this afternoon will slide east into the eastern Great Lakes, pushing a pair of fronts across the region this evening and overnight. These surface features are what are driving the line of scattered convection across the Ohio Valley and the center of Lake Erie as of 17Z. This line is expected to progress eastward this afternoon (18Z to 00Z), spreading convection inland. With the better instability across far WNY, a few of the thunderstorms may become severe, producing gusty winds in excess of 50kts. Overall flight conditions will remain VFR, with the exception of the aforementioned thunderstorms where conditions may drop down to brief and localized MVFR/IFR from ceilings and visibility. With the cold frontal passage this evening (after 00Z/Sun), widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will pass east across the area, causing ceilings to drop to widespread MVFR with a swath of IFR conditions across the western Southern Tier (impacting KJHW) and the higher elevations east of Lake Ontario. Wrap around moisture and cooler temperatures aloft in the wake of the front Sunday morning will support lake enhanced showers east of Lakes Erie and Ontario Sunday, which will maintain widespread low end VFR ceilings with MVFR ceilings within any lake effect showers and clouds east of the Lakes. Outlook... Monday...Periodic showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms with associated MVFR/IFR, with mainly VFR expected outside of any precipitation. Monday night through Tuesday night...Lake effect rain, mainly east and southeast of the Lakes with associated restrictions diminishing off Lake Erie Monday night and Tuesday and off Lake Ontario Tuesday and Tuesday night. Otherwise mainly VFR. Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Thursday...Mainly VFR, except MVFR/IFR conditions possible from scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Behind a departing area of surface high pressure, a modest southeasterly to southerly flow will continue through the day today. A deepening area of low pressure passing just north of the Lakes will push first a warm front (today) and later a cold front (Sunday) across the lakes...with showers and a few thunderstorms along each frontal boundary. Behind the cold front Sunday, an upper level low will bring an early taste of autumn with a brisk west wind developing within a decently strong pressure gradient and moderate instability over the Lakes. While initial southerly flow Sunday should bring Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions to the lakes Sunday, the southwest flow under the upper level low Sunday night through Monday night, and then westerly flow Tuesday, will likely continue the choppy waters on the Lakes with SCA likely. In addition to the brisk winds, there will be the potential for waterspouts with the development of sizable lake-induced instability as cool air associated with cyclonic flow around the upper-level low crosses the warm lakes. Greater waterspout potential will materialize as early as tonight over Lake Erie and Sunday over Lake Ontario. The waterspout threat should continue through Tuesday. However, expected thunderstorms over Lake Erie this afternoon into evening may produce waterspouts as well, especially if storms organize into a line. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jaszka AVIATION...EAL MARINE...Jaszka/Thomas  620 FXUS63 KDTX 221920 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 320 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with low probability for an isolated strong to severe storm. - Breezy and cooler conditions arrive Sunday with scattered showers through Sunday night. - Mainly dry weather Monday into Tuesday with a warming trend. The next chance of showers and storms is possible late in the day Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... A cold front passing across the area remains the focus for numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. This is tied to an amplifying upper trough inducing divergence aloft and deep forcing along the frontal zone. This is enough forced ascent to produce high coverage of convection, but instability remains a limiting factor to the severe threat due to relatively cool surface temperatures and slow diurnal recovery in the wake of morning convection and persistent cloud cover. Radar trends over the past hour suggest the forcing is likely outpacing the recovery of instability, indicating a shrinking window for stronger to severe storms. Bulk wind shear of 30 kt remains the favorable parameter for some organized updrafts, and will continue to monitor storm trends as the front works through over the next couple hours. The main threat in any stronger convection remains wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph. Portions of Shiawassee, Livingston, and Washtenaw Counties received 2 to 3 inches of rain this morning, so these areas may also be susceptible to localized ponding/flooding as the line of showers works through. The surface front clears the area by around 6pm with weak instability lagging behind to keep a spottier coverage of showers and possibly a thunderstorm through this evening before forcing clears out. The trough driving the cold front will continue to amplify tonight into Sunday with an anomalously deep closed low developing all the way up to 300mb. Forecast ensemble mean 500mb heights sit about 2 standard deviations below climatology for this system, which stalls just northeast of Georgian Bay into early next week. Its downstream placement will direct a steady feed of drier, cool air into the Great Lakes during this period, sending temperatures well below normal. Highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s will be likely Sunday and Monday. Northwest wind will be breezy to around 25 to 30 mph each day. A strong vort max will dive southward directly across the area Sunday afternoon and evening, inducing higher lapse rates and a diurnal flare-up of shower activity. Soundings show respectable depth to narrow CAPE to allow for a chance of thunderstorms, but severe weather is not expected. Highest coverage of showers is favored target the Thumb where early season lake effect processes begin to come into play. By Monday, precipitation chances drop off and more sun is in store as gradual upper height rises commence. Thicknesses rebound as well, allowing a slight uptick in high temps. A shortwave ridge passes over the region Tuesday into early Wednesday as the upper low slowly exits east and another shortwave trough works across central Canada. The resultant high pressure brings another dry day with a step up in high temps to around 80 degrees. Flow organizes out of the southwest on Wednesday as the upstream wave works into the western Great Lakes. This advects in higher moisture and a chance of showers and storms late in the day. The associated cold front is slated to track through by Thursday morning but additional showers will be possible through the rest of the day as the trough stalls in the vicinity. && .MARINE... Ongoing passage of a cold front will continue to support a line of showers and thunderstorms that will progress across the Great Lakes for the remainder of the evening hours. Any stronger thunderstorms will be capable of producing localized wind gusts aoa 34 knots. Wind direction will quickly veer from south-southeast to northwest in the wake of the front with cooler air supporting breezy conditions. A prolonged window for these breezy conditions are expected through tomorrow and a greater portion of the day on Monday, with gusts on the order of 20 to 30 knots. A longer fused Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for both wind gust concerns and for building wave heights in and around the Thumb given the sustained northwest flow. Otherwise, there will be a low chance for rain showers across Lake Huron tomorrow afternoon and evening with a very low chance for waterspout development. High pressure then builds in late Monday and settles in on Tuesday, bringing lighter winds to the area. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1248 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 AVIATION... Ongoing strengthening of large scale forcing along an approaching cold front will support additional shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon. Despite some stabilization from early morning convection, diurnal heating across western Lower Mi is allowing instability to build to the west. This instability axis is forecast to track across Se Mi this afternoon along the surface cold front, igniting additional convection. Thunderstorm chances will decrease between 21Z and 22Z with the passage of the cold front. There continues to be some indications that low clouds will develop overnight/early Sunday morning within the post frontal cold air advection. Low level mixing may be a limiting factor to coverage and duration. D21/DTW Convection...Additional clusters of showers/thunderstorms is still forecast this afternoon, mainly between 18Z and 22Z. There is a chance for some linear organization to the storms across the airspace. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Moderate in thunderstorms this afternoon. * Moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet today and Sunday. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Monday for LHZ421-441. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Monday for LHZ422. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Monday for LHZ442-443. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TF MARINE.......AM AVIATION.....SC You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  722 FXUS61 KPHI 221922 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 322 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Chances for Severe Weather Sunday morning remain about the same (Marginal). Updated Key Messages and Aviation/Marine sections. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Cold front passes through the region Sunday morning with conditions improving for Sunday afternoon. 2. Fair weather is expected to return later Sunday and should persist into the middle of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold front passes through the region Sunday morning with conditions improving for Sunday afternoon. A weak disturbance across Delmarva will continue to move offshore into the evening. Scattered showers have accompanied it so far. A rumble of thunder across far south Delaware is possible however. A low pressure system along with a negatively tilted H5 trough across the Great Lakes attm will move E-NE towards southern Canada by Sunday. An associated cold front will move across the Middle Atlantic region Sunday morning and then offshore by early afternoon. While the front will be crossing through at a time when heating will be at a minimum, we still have some good dynamics and a humid airmass in place. Accordingly, we expect showers to increase over the area later tonight and persist until FROPA on Sunday. Pops are Likely/Categorical for the Wester/Northern counties and Chance for areas South/East. The threat for Excessive Rainfall seems to overall be rather low with ample storm motion expected to keep the soakers from stalling across one area. Most areas will see one-quarter to one-half inch of rain with a few isolated spots perhaps getting around an inch. The higher totals will likely be across the Southern Poconos and North NJ. Severe weather remains possible and with CAPE values increasing overnight and peaking before FROPA Sunday, we could see some instances of Severe weather, Again, the favored areas will be North/Northwest where the SPC has kept the MARGINAL tag for the updated Day2 Outlook. Damaging winds are the primary threat for early Sunday. The front passes across the area Sunday morning while the best dynamics exit to the Northeast. Rains and thunder will end from West to East during the morning and fair weather should push in for the afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2...Fair weather is expected to return later Sunday and should persist into the middle of the upcoming week. More zonal flow with some subtle ridging moves in for the first half of the week. At the surface, high pressure will mainly be in control, resulting in dry and tranquil weather through Wednesday. Temperatures should be seasonable through this stretch. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of today...Mostly VFR across the terminals as of early afternoon (except KACY). Scattered showers across Delmarva and south NJ will keep lower conditions (MVFR) there. Lower conditions will develop toward evening. E-SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Low/Medium confidence. Tonight... Lower conditions with widespread MVFR for the evening then IFR mostly with Scattered showers and areas of fog. TSTMs may arrive late tonight as a front approaches. Continued with the VCTS for now with limited confid in TSTM occurrence. Low confidence. Sunday... Low conditions during the morning (IFR/low-end MVFR), the improving quickly (VFR) following a cold front passage mid/late morning. TSTMS will have gusty winds (G35-45 kts) and short periods of IFR VSBYs possible. Winds become West after the front with some gusts around 20 knots for awhile. Medium confid. Outlook... Sunday night through Thursday...VFR expected most of the time. && .MARINE... Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions will remain across the waters tonight and Sunday. Seas on the ocean will mostly be 2 to 3 ft range thru the period. Winds will be East to Southeast mostly around 10 knots early tonight then turn South to Southwest late. Winds on Sunday will become West following the passage of a cold around around midday. Follwing the front, a few gusts around 20 kts possible. Scattered showers are expected this evening with more showers and a few TSTMS after midnight into Sunday morning. Winds and seas locally higher in TSTMs. Outlook... Sunday through Wednesday...No marine headlines expected. Showers continue Sunday morning, ending Sunday afternoon. Fair weather thereafter. Rip Currents... Rest of today...East to southeast winds around 10 mph with breaking waves of 2 to 3 feet and easterly swells with a period of 6 to 8 seconds will result in a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for the Jersey Shore and a LOW risk for Delaware Beaches. On Sunday, winds shift to the southwest at 10 to 15 mph in the morning, then to the west in the afternoon. Breaking waves will be 1 to 2 feet with light southerly swells with a 6 to 8 second period. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION... OHara AVIATION... MPS/OHara/Staarmann MARINE... MPS/OHara/Staarmann  716 FXUS63 KILX 221922 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 222 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Relatively benign weather is on tap for the upcoming week, with the primary chance for any rain around mid week. - Temperatures will not be out of the ordinary for this time of year, with high temperatures near 80 degrees Sunday and Monday creeping upward a bit through the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Diurnal cumulus development has been increasing across the northern CWA early this afternoon. While surface CAPE's in that area are around 2000 J/kg, mid level lapse rates are fairly low. Between that and dew points only in the low-mid 60s, any precipitation this afternoon should mainly be in the form of sprinkles. The dry air will result in a couple of pleasant nights, with lows around 60 tonight and mid-upper 50s Sunday night. The overall upper pattern over the next several days will favor a northwest flow into the Midwest, which will keep any significant heat or moisture surges at bay. The most interesting feature of note will be a shortwave diving southeast around mid week. With most of the available moisture near the Great Lakes, rain chances this far south will be more questionable, with 20-30% chances mainly centered on Wednesday night. Temperatures creep upward and are expected to reach the mid 80s by mid week, with enough moisture in place to get the heat index to around 90 in a few places. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions prevail the next 24 hours. Northwest winds this afternoon will range from 10-15 knots before settling down before sunset. A stray shower or storm is possible late this afternoon, though odds of occurrence are only around 10-15% and preclude any mention at the terminals right now. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Geelhart DISCUSSION...Geelhart AVIATION...Geelhart  883 FXUS65 KPIH 221927 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 127 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms return to all of southern Idaho. Thunderstorms continue through the next seven days for many locations in southern Idaho. - Red Flag Warnings in place for scattered thunderstorms today for all of Central Idaho Dispatch area, Southern Idaho Dispatch area, and portions of the Eastern Idaho Dispatch area. - After record heat the past two days, clouds and precipitation will cool afternoon highs significantly today, then continue a weak overall cooling trend through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 124 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A ridge of high pressure over the southwest combined with an upper low off the Pacific coast will support the flow of monsoon moisture into Southeast Idaho over the next several days in southwest flow aloft. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will become more widespread again this afternoon and evening as an embedded shortwave works through. The Storm Prediction Center has included almost the entirety of the CWA in a Marginal Risk of severe weather today. The storm environment becomes more favorable heading into the afternoon through mid-evening hours, with models indicating 0-6km shear increasing to 40 to 50 knots across portions of the CWA. The threat of gusty winds increases as well, with RRFS DCAPE values ranging around 1000 to 1400 J/kg. Thunderstorms will be capable of outflows ranging 50 to 60 mph. Otherwise, moderate to heavy rain will be possible with storms with models indicating precipitable water ranging 0.70" to 1.4" today. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will remain fairly weak today. Temperatures today will run 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday's record temperatures. The main upper level low pressure system will continue to track northward into Canada throughout the day Sunday, resulting in less widespread storm coverage on Sunday with activity more limited to the higher terrain. On the other hand, winds will increase outside of storms with gusts across the Snake River Plain, Arco Desert, and portions of the central mountains ranging 30 to 40 mph. The suppression of the ridge will mean a continuation of gradually cooling temperatures through Monday before the ridge attempts to rebound. During this time, temperatures will briefly warm by several degrees, but ensembles show the next PacNW low reaching the coast and flattening the ridge again come mid-week which will take our temperatures back into seasonable territory or just below for the latter half of next week. Southwest flow aloft will keep enough monsoon moisture lifting northward to support daily chances of showers and thunderstorms throughout next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1115 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Expect more showers and thunderstorms to potentially impact any of TAF sites through this evening. Gusts to or exceeding 45kts are possible with any given storm or outflow boundaries. We should see a lull overnight, but some of the higher resolution models have another round or two moving through early tomorrow morning. Chances are low enough that we will not include any mention (even PROB30) during that period. That may need to be adjusted later on. Expect VFR weather unless a heavy downpour directly impacts a TAF site or we see some blowing dust. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 124 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 We will continue with a RED FLAG WARNING for all zones EXCEPT 413. There will be a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms, with the main impact being storms potentially producing gusts 35-60 mph, if not a bit higher with some storms across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley (410, 425). There is a 30-50% chance of wetting rains across central and eastern Idaho through this evening. Morning cloud cover had muddied the picture a bit on where higher coverage will be, but not enough to make any changes to the warning layout. With this monsoon push, we are expecting pockets of showers across our area overnight, with a 10% chance or less of seeing an overnight thunderstorm or two. As low pressure scoots northeast tomorrow, we are expecting an increase in winds outside of any thunderstorms. Gusts of 25-40 mph are expected across portions of the Snake Plain (410), Lava Beds in the Magic Valley (425), the central mountains (422, 475, 476), and along the Montana border in Zone 411. There is some question on how much dry air works in across those areas. Right now, the best chance of seeing much lower humidity is across the central mountains. We will likely see pockets of critical fire weather conditions, but at the moment will hold off on any RED FLAG WARNINGS for that combination. Elsewhere we are going to be borderline for thunderstorm coverage across Zones 427 and 413. We are also expecting similar issues, in addition to the overall wind, across Zone 411. Again, with borderline conditions (coverage should be much lower than today), we will not go with any warnings for thunderstorms. Outflow gust potential for 35+ mph is lower tomorrow (10-40%) vs today (40-90%). The chance of wetting rain is lower overall 15-30% and more spotty as well. Expect more of the same on Monday. The footprint for showers and storms increases, at least based on current trends, but thunderstorm potential is still borderline for more widespread coverage. Monsoon moisture looks to stick around most of this week, potentially decreasing toward the end of it. We will to watch trends over the next few days to see how long it may be with us and how much precipitation we could see. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-422- 425-427-475-476. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cropp AVIATION...Keyes FIRE WEATHER...Keyes  926 FXUS64 KMAF 221929 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 229 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 229 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Hot temperatures continue through the forecast period with little to no chance of rain. - Drink plenty of fluids and seek shade frequently as heat illnesses due to prolonged exposure to heat may occur. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Upper-level high pressure will remain the dominant feature across west Texas and southeast New Mexico through the remainder of the weekend. A weakness embedded in the ridge may initiate isolated to scattered convection along an outflow boundary to our north over the South Plains later this afternoon. CAMs continue to indicate that a few cells could approach our far northern counties late this afternoon or early this evening, so maintained very low POPs between 10-20% roughly from Gaines to Scurry counties, but most locations should remain hot and dry. Any storm that does develop or make it into the northern Basin will be capable of producing brief strong/erratic gusts and a few lightning strikes. The heat wave otherwise continues with highs this afternoon and Sunday afternoon reaching between 100-106 degrees over much of the region, except for readings in the mid to upper 90s over the higher terrain areas. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the northeast Basin and western Low Rolling Plains through Sunday evening, where afternoon highs range around 105 degrees with early morning lows near 80 degrees. Spend time in air conditioning or in the shade if outdoors, wear loose fitting, light-colored clothing, and drink plenty of water to stay hydrated. Remember to never leave people or pets inside a closed or locked vehicle. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Upper-level high pressure will remain in place across our region through the middle of the week before perhaps retrograding slightly westward over the Desert Southwest by late in the week. Even so, the ridge will continue to extend into southeast New Mexico and west Texas through Friday of next week, so hot temperatures will persist through the extended period. Highs each day will continue to range between 100-106 over much of the region, with the highest readings staying over the northeast Basin/western Low Rolling Plains, along the Pecos River Vally and along the Rio Grande. Overnight lows mostly range in the 70s, except for readings in the 60s over higher elevation areas. Weak shortwave impulses moving over the area within northwest flow aloft on the eastern side of the ridge could at least bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to portions of the area Thursday, but rain chances generally remain 20% or less at this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with light S/SE winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 77 104 77 105 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 73 102 74 104 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 76 103 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 74 101 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 70 94 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 72 101 72 103 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 64 95 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 77 102 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 77 101 77 102 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 75 103 75 104 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for Borden-Howard-Mitchell- Scurry.NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...21  903 FXUS65 KLKN 221928 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1228 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Subtropical moisture will help to fuel afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the middle of next week * Some showers and thunderstorms could produce brief moderate to heavy rain with the main threat of debris flows on recently burned areas * Cooling trend begins today as mid-level moisture and increasing cloud cover continues its northward trajectory && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Saturday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Subtropical moisture from southerly monsoonal flow caused by high pressure over the four corners area, will bring chances for isolated/scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across central and northern Nevada lasting into mid-week. Today is the strongest chances for thunderstorms as PWAT values across the area ranging above 0.8 to 1 inch of moisture, with ample instability. Periods of brief moderate to heavy rain from thunderstorms possible with the main threat of thunderstorms over recently burned areas that could produce debris flow. Humboldt county is the exception this afternoon as the thunderstorms will be mainly dry due to fast storm motions that will limit rainfall in the area. Tomorrow, thunderstorm chances continue in the afternoon with it more centralized over central Nevada along US-50 corridor and extending across eastern and northeastern Nevada with strongest thunderstorm chances near the Wendover area. The greatest threat from thunderstorms tomorrow will be strong gusty outflow winds up to 45-60 mph with brief periods of heavy rainfall. From Monday-Wednesday, the high pressure over the four corners will begin to shift west back towards Arizona. This will limit the amount of subtropical moisture entering into Nevada and drier air begins to move in. There is still some pockets of ample moisture with PWATs up to 0.7-0.85 inches shifting towards northeastern Nevada with ample instability to produce additional thunderstorms in the afternoon. Rest of the week, calmer weather conditions take hold as monsoon flow gets cut off with models showing better agreement that the high pressure will be centralized over Arizona and a southwesterly flow moves over Nevada. Temperatures remain in the 90s today and into the next week with a gradual cooling trend thanks to increase in cloud cover, with temperatures expected to get even cooler dropping into the 80s by the end of the week. Winds will be light in the afternoons with some patches of breezy southwesterly winds in central Nevada and Humboldt county up to 15-20 mph, gusts 25-30 mph through Wednesday, however thunderstorms can produce strong gusty erratic outflow winds up to 45-60 mph. End of the week, winds will gradually become breezy thanks to a low pressure system over the northwest that will tighten weather gradients along with the high pressure over Arizona. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence for active thunderstorms this afternoon through mid-week due to subtropical moisture from an active monsoon pattern over the southwest. Moderate confidence of dry, calm weather conditions returning late week with some breezy afternoon winds. High confidence of cooling temperature trends thanks to increase in cloud coverage and cooler flow by the end of the week. Changes to PoP, Thunder, and Weather grids were made to better reflect thunderstorm activity over the weekend and into Monday. && .AVIATION... Active thunderstorms continue across central and northern Nevada with VCTS conditions at all terminals this afternoon and evening. Probability for thunderstorms over the terminals remain low which will be left out of the TAFs for now, however it cannot be ruled out that an isolated cell maymove over the terminals. Breezy southerly winds up to 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts, however gusty erratic winds from thunderstorms possible with gusts up to 40-50 kts. VFR dominant conditions at all terminals, however MVFR or lower possible from passing thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Southerly monsoonal flow continues this afternoon, keeping the subtropical flow over Nevada. By tomorrow and into next week, the monsoon flow will begin to weaken as the high pressure over the four corners will shift west towards Arizona. There will still be ample moisture in the atmosphere that will keep chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for central and northern Nevada. Greatest hazards from these storms will be strong gusty erratic outflow winds up to 40-50 mph, ground lightning, and brief periods of heavy rainfall. Over western Nevada, thunderstorms are expected to be mainly dry as moisture levels are not as deep with stable air hindering instability potential. Winds will generally be light from the south at 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph. Temperatures will be on a cooling trend thanks to cloud coverage and cooling down into the 80s and 90s by the end of the week. Models are showing better agreement that the cooler temperatures will stay, however southwesterly winds begin to elevate in the afternoons with drier air. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...97 AVIATION...97 FIRE WEATHER...97  070 FXUS63 KLOT 221931 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 231 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated shower or storm possible (15-20% chance) this afternoon around Lake Michigan, and specifically northwest Indiana this evening and tonight. - Dangerous swimming conditions at Porter County beaches today will include all Indiana and Cook County Lake Michigan beaches late tonight and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 It's a pleasant and quiet Saturday across the area with early afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 and diurnally-driven cumulus starting to fill in overhead. Up north, a handful of showers and a couple of thunderstorms have recently blossomed along the eastern WI lakeshore with higher coverage found farther north near the Door Peninsula and UP of Michigan. These developed as a potent vort max and digging trough axis swing across the upper Midwest. The cold advection aloft has allowed for an ample reservoir of instability to build around the region while plenty of broad forcing is around to drive scattered convection. Coverage will attempt to spread south over the next few hours and a few isolated showers/storms may attempt to go up over portions of far northeast IL and northwest IN before the end of the afternoon. A considerable amount of mid level dry air, however, should greatly limit overall coverage and make it largely difficult for cores to produce lightning. This evening, a secondary vort/backdoor cold front will drive down the windward side of the trough providing continued opportunities for showers and storms to develop over the lake during the night. The backed wind field should steer any evening/overnight activity into northwest Indiana. An isolated shower or two may even linger past daybreak into northern Porter County. In the forecast, maintained slight chances for rain and thunderstorms over and around the lake this afternoon which then focus into northwest Indiana for the evening and night. In addition to the precip potential, the added cooling aloft brought on by that secondary vort will further steepen up lapse rates over the mild lake waters such that waterspouts may develop over the lake this evening through early Sunday morning. With the trough ejecting to our east tomorrow, surface high pressure will slide into the region and bring quiet conditions to the early part of next week. Afternoon temperatures are forecast in the middle to upper 70s on Sunday and Monday and around 80 for Tuesday. A synoptic system is favored to move across the upper Midwest during the middle of the week and bring shower and storm chances to the area in the Tuesday night to Thursday window. A lot of uncertainty still revolves around this system, including if there may be any appreciable severe threat, so we'll leave it at that for now and keep an eye on model trends over the coming days. Doom && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A few isolated showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm are possible this afternoon, primarily east of the Chicago terminals. If confidence increases in coverage, then TAFs may need to be amended to include a VCSH for a few hours this afternoon. Otherwise, look for VFR conditions through the TAF cycle. Northwest winds will gust to around 20 mph this afternoon, likely easing and losing gustiness as sunset approaches. Lake breeze will develop this afternoon and move through GYY resulting in a wind shift to lighter NE. Lake breeze is expected to hug the shore over northeast IL remaining east of ORD and MDW through the afternoon. Toward sunset, as winds diminish, the the lake breeze will probably make a run westward toward ORD/MDW. Best chance of a wind shift to easterly looks to be at MDW, but can't be ruled out at ORD. If showers do develop near and over the lake this afternoon, outflow from the showers could provide the lake breeze an earlier westward push inland. Not out of the question this could threaten a temporary easterly wind shift at MDW and possibly even ORD later this afternoon. - Izzi && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Sunday evening for ILZ103-ILZ104. IN...Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Sunday evening for INZ001. Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for INZ002. LM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Wilmette Harbor to Calumet Harbor IL-Calumet Harbor to Gary IN. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Sunday for Gary to Burns Harbor IN-Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  997 FXUS63 KLSX 221930 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 230 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pleasant and mostly dry conditions are expected through the upcoming week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Northwest flow continues aloft across the region. A ridge is bringing hot weather out west while a trough over the Great Lakes is bringing considerably cooler weather in the east. At the surface, high pressure is pushing south into the Northern Plains, with winds out of the north across our region bringing in drier air. As this high nudges further south overnight we'll see winds die off and temperatures drop in the fresh dry air mass. Lows tonight will dip into the low to mid 60s, with some upper 50s possible in the cooler spots. Sunday will be one of the coolest days of this air mass with highs only reaching into the low 80s. Some mid and high level cloud cover will contribute to those lower temperatures. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 This week we continue in some flavor of western ridging and eastern troughing, keeping our area in the northwest flow in between. Showers and thunderstorms rotating around the ridge stay largely west of our area, keeping us mainly dry through Tuesday with temperatures eventually making a modest rebound back into the mid to upper 80s. The initial eastern trough weakens and lifts into the Canadian Maritimes by midweek, but it gets replaced by a new trough arriving from around the top of the ridge. It's this trough that's probably the most interesting feature for our weather this week. It initially arrives in the Pacific Northwest tomorrow but moves into the western Great Lakes on Wednesday. As it does so, it will slide another cold front southward through the middle of the country, pushing through our area Wednesday or Wednesday night. This represents our best chance of rain this week, though those chances aren't particularly high at this point. Most of the forcing from the trough passes by to our north while the better moisture and instability remains further south. NBM PoP remains quite low, generally 20 percent or less, but if we look at the low resolution ensemble guidance we see that 50 to 60 percent of these members produce measurable rain in the 24 hours ending Wednesday night. It's the timing and location uncertainty that's holding PoP lower at this point, but this does represent our best chance of rain locally this week. Wednesday's front may knock temperatures back a few degrees, but guidance is in general agreement that the western ridge weakens and broadens later in the week, nudging its influence eastward. This would nudge us back toward warmer temperatures, but not as extreme as we've seen recently. We'll also have a few other opportunities for rain as shortwave troughs round the edge of the ridge even as it approaches our area. However, confidence in the timing and track of those waves is even lower than for Wednesday's trough, so daily rain chances remain fairly minimal in the current forecast until that confidence changes. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions continue at all sites. Light winds tonight could bring some valley fog, but this is less likely due to drier air moving into the region today. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kimble LONG TERM...Kimble AVIATION...Kimble  121 FXUS64 KHUN 221933 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 233 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New NEAR TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 909 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - A few thunderstorms may impact the western portion of north AL late this afternoon/early this evening. Brief strong wind gusts could accompany the most intense cells. - There are low to medium chances of thunderstorms for much of next week. However, timing and impact confidence remains low at this time. && .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Under mostly sunny skies temps have warmed into the high 80s to low 90s. Relatively benign weather is forecast through the early afternoon, after which, attention will shift to a cold front approaching from the NW. Currently, a complex of storms can be seen moving SE through the Ozarks. As the cold front continues to drop SE, storms too will move gradually SE. Still thinking storms will arrive between 6-8 PM and push through by midnight. Unfortunately coverage remains fairly uncertain as CAMS struggle to resolve the weak cold front and associated mid level shortwave. While coverage could be a little more widespread, the current forecast is that storms will clip NW AL, largely staying west of I-65. Storms that do develop will have a risk for damaging winds with bulk shear of around 30 KTs present along the front. Instability will be waning as storms move in, which will likely lead to a weakening trend as storms push south. Please check back for updates. Any storms and rain present look to end after midnight with clear conditions building in by morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 909 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The short term forecast will have two features of interest. The first is slightly cooler temps with highs and lows a degree or two below seasonal norms. Highs look to largely remain below 90 degrees with lows staying below 70. The second feature of interest will be the overall synoptic pattern, which will remain in a ridging west / troughing east regime. This will keep us in NW flow and support additional shortwaves passing through the TN Valley. The first of these looks to be from Monday to Tuesday. While it's a little too soon to pull out specific details, really any passing feature could be enough to support general summertime thunderstorms each afternoon. Please check back for updates regarding any specific hazards and timing. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 751 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 In the extended forecast, we will get a break from the extreme heat conditions, however in exchange for that, we will be stuck in an unsettled pattern. We will start off with the pattern of an upper level low up in Quebec and the far NE U.S with an amplified ridge stretching from the southern Rockies up through the Northern Plains. On the back side of the ridge, a smaller upper-level low in Manitoba will try to be the driving force for a pattern change. As that smaller low slides SE into the Upper Great Lakes mid-week, the ridge will be dampened enough for it to round the ridge. This pattern will keep us in a northwesterly flow through the week. Embedded in this flow will be shortwaves that will swing through the TN Valley, keeping daily rain chances in. Right now it looks like there is a chance for an MCS to drop through on Tuesday, then again Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Will keep an eye on trends for specific hazards and timing, but for now will stick with NBM POPs. Daytime highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows around 70 degrees. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are largely expected through the TAF period. A low chance for showers and storms exists this evening at MSL from around 23Z-02Z. Have not included anything in the TAF due to low confidence but amendments may be necessary if storms do make it this far east. Any flight restrictions should lift back to VFR by 06Z and prevail through the remainder of the period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RAD SHORT TERM....RAD LONG TERM....JMS AVIATION...RAD  181 FXUS65 KSLC 221935 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 135 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall across most of the region through the weekend. - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe thunderstorms across portions of northwestern Utah today. There is a 5-10% chance of wind gusts in excess of 58 mph in this area through the evening. - A Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe thunderstorms is outlooked for Sunday afternoon and evening across much of northern Utah. There is a 10% chance of wind gusts in excess of 70 mph with these thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION...Increased moisture across the region will support thunderstorms capable of heavy rainfall rates. With relatively slow storm motions today, already seeing convection anchored on terrain training in locations and producing localized flooding of small streams and dry washes. Will need to continue to monitor central and southern Utah through the evening as rainfall rates in excess of 0.50-0.75 inches per hour have been observed. The most prone locations will be slot canyons, normally dry washes, slick rock areas, areas with poor drainage and of course the numerous recent burn scars across the region. Across northwestern Utah, CAMS suggest the threat of strong to severe microburst winds. One inhibiting factor will be the mid- morning to early afternoon convection that moved across northwestern Utah. This likely stabilized the atmosphere a bit...and additional convective potential may be suppressed for several hours. While earlier runs of the HRRR showed significant wind gusts impacting northwestern Utah and perhaps the Wasatch Front in the 21Z-02Z timeframe, later runs have largely shifted away from this solution. Mesoanalysis correlates a fair amount of inhibition...and guidance suggests this CIN may not be overcome by the end of peak heating. Sunday looks to be a potentially interesting day convection-wise. A weak area of convergence associated with a Pacific trough will shift into northwestern Utah. Mean HREF SBCAPE values will near 1000 J/kg across much of northern Utah by noon to 1 PM. This combined with deep layer shear around 25-30 kts and general synoptic scale lift will support convective development across much of Utah after noon. The most intense convection will likely be across northern Utah. HREF suggests a neighborhood probability of wind gusts in excess of 55 mph around 15-25%, especially near and west of the Great Salt Lake, and 10% or so in excess of 60 mph. The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked this area with a slight risk (level 2/5) for Sunday afternoon and evening including the Wasatch Front. Across central and southern Utah, another day of thunderstorms with the threat of heavy rainfall is expected. Peak rainfall rates in guidance are notably lower than Saturday, correlating well with a net drying trend. That said, the threat of at least isolated flash flooding in the most prone locations will continue Sunday afternoon and evening, especially across central and southern Utah. The Pacific trough will finally shift into the northern High Plains, shifting any large scale forcing for convection to the east. Given there wasn't a front to sweep out the low-level moisture in the low desert areas, expect the threat of isolated flash flooding to persist in any areas that develop convection through at least Monday...if not longer. && .AVIATION... KSLC...There is low confidence in wind direction this afternoon and evening, particularly near any storms. High-based showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop over the Oquirrh Mountains after 20z, with storms potentially moving over the terminal after 21z or so, resulting in gusty and erratic outflow winds reaching 40kts for a brief period (10% chance). BLDU may result in brief VIS reductions. The threat of showers will linger well into the evening/overnight hours (until 09-10z), with a continued threat of outflow winds. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...High-based showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across much of the area (all but KCDC-KSGU) this afternoon, first over higher terrain. These storms will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds up to 40kts (up to 50kts across NW-UT). Storms will likely subside across southern UT between 02-04z, though showers are likely to linger through the overnight hours across the rest of the area...gradually weakening through the night. Outflow winds will result in low confidence in wind direction through much of the valid TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER...Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will become more isolated through early Monday, and largely tied to terrain. Any showers and thunderstorms this weekend will have the threat of strong, gusty microburst winds. Over the work-week, valley humidities will fall slowly each day, reaching near critical to critical levels as early as Monday. There is little sign of an additional monsoon surge after this weekend until after the next weekend. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ Kruse/Cunningham For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  295 FXUS63 KEAX 221938 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 238 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Cooler and drier conditions are expected across the region tonight into Sunday. * Weakening showers may try to build into eastern KS Sunday afternoon leading increasing clouds and perhaps a sprinkle or two. * Spotty showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread east Sunday night into Monday morning. This activity is not expected to be severe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Broad 1025 mb surface high pressure has built south from Canada and is currently centered across the central Dakotas with dew points in the 40s and 50s to the northwest. Drier air will filter into the region this afternoon with high temperatures in the mid 80s. Surface ridge is expected to shift east tonight leading to good radiative conditions. Have forecast lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the region. With the good radiative conditions, could see patchy fog develop in the river valleys and drainage areas, though increasing high clouds from showers and thunderstorms across the Northern Plains may limit potential. Isotropic lift will continue to support the shorts pushing east, though activity will struggle the farther east it goes with limited moisture. Expect the net result to be increasing clouds, and potentially a few sprinkles across eastern KS. Have lowered forecast highs across eastern KS into western MO with increasing clouds. Ridge riding short wave is expected to build south along the Missouri River basin Sunday night. Increasing isentropic lift near the 310K surface may lead to spotty showers and thunderstorms overnight. Mid- level lapse rates are near moist adiabatic so showers should have limited instability to work with, and dry air near the surface should limit precip potential. Warmer, more muggy conditions are expected the first half of next week as the long standing upper ridge expands east. A series of ridge riding short waves building into the Upper Midwest could lead to additional showers and thunderstorms mid-week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1146 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Could be some few to scattered cumulus across central Missouri this afternoon, which should rapidly discipate towards sunset. Potential for patchy fog tonight in the river vallies, so added mention of fog at KSTJ. Any fog should rapidly burn off towards 14Z Sunday. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT AVIATION...BT  739 FXUS64 KOUN 221946 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 246 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 245 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Excessive heat continues through the weekend and into next week. - Isolated to scattered rain/storms are possible most days with the primary hazard being strong winds. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A ~599 dam mid-level ridge remains centered near the Four Corners region in the southwestern United States. This has placed Oklahoma and north Texas on the northeast periphery of ridge with weak northwest flow aloft. Synoptic-scale ascent from a wave embedded in the flow allowed for a complex of showers and thunderstorms to move through eastern parts of the area this morning. Isolated showers/storms may develop along the remnant outflow boundary from this morning's storms across southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas late this afternoon into the evening. Damaging wind gusts from downbursts will be the primary hazard with any thunderstorms given the large amount of downdraft CAPE (~1500 J/kg) and the hot temperatures. The chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight is lower than previous nights as the mid-level ridge is forecast to expand slightly to the east. This keeps the more appreciable synoptic- scale ascent to our northeast. Mahale && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Hotter weather returns on Sunday with the eastward expansion of the mid-level ridge in tandem with a strengthening low-level thermal ridge. Dangerous heat is expected across much of the area with a Heat Advisory in effect for all locations except northern Oklahoma. Parts of the Heat Advisory may need to be upgraded to Extreme Heat Warning across the south with the potential for air temperatures and/or heat indices >110 deg F. The very hot temperatures across western Oklahoma and western north Texas will result in afternoon relative humidity values near or below 20%, which will result in elevated fire weather conditions. With the ongoing drought and very dry fuels, the total fire environment (weather + fuels) will be susceptible to initial attack fires. As a result, a Fire Danger Statement may be needed for tomorrow. In addition, a few high-based thunderstorms may develop across the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles tomorrow afternoon. Some of this activity may move into western Oklahoma with a dry lightning threat. A weak cold front/wind shift is forecast to advance southward on Monday as a shortwave trough passes by to the northeast. Veered low-level flow ahead of the front will result in very hot, record-breaking temperatures (i.e., "pre-frontal torch") with the potential for temperatures approaching 115 deg F across southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas. In addition, with the veered low-level flow, at least elevated fire weather conditions are expected Monday afternoon with the potential for locally near- critical fire weather conditions. The primary mitigating factor for a higher-end fire weather risk is wind speeds should be somewhat limited. Nevertheless, a Fire Danger Statement will likely be needed on Monday. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 This boundary may linger into Tuesday with slightly cooler temperatures across the northern half of the area, but still baking across the south with temperatures once again approaching 110 degrees. The ridge looks to push off to the southwest a bit as well which allows better northwest flow to develop and slightly cooler temperatures (still above normal). Although a few afternoon showers/storms not out of the question Tuesday afternoon, a better upper shortwave drops southeast out of the High Plains as we go into Tuesday night and Wednesday. This should bring, at least to northwest Oklahoma, a better chance of rain as storms move off the higher terrain and slide southeast into Oklahoma. Scattered activity may continue through the end of the week as the northwest flow regime continues to bring some minor shortwaves overhead. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Strong to severe storms are possible later this afternoon and into the evening for areas generally south of I-40. However, greatest chances appear to be near KLAW and KSPS, with damaging wind gusts possible. In addition, LLWS is possible during the early morning hours on Sunday at KSPS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 75 103 80 107 / 10 10 10 0 Hobart OK 76 109 82 110 / 20 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 79 109 83 111 / 20 0 0 0 Gage OK 71 105 73 103 / 0 0 10 0 Ponca City OK 72 95 73 100 / 10 10 10 0 Durant OK 76 107 81 109 / 20 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ009>012- 014>019-021>048-050>052. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ011-012-014>019- 021>025-027>029-033>041-044>046-050. TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ083>090. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...10 SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...01  846 FXHW60 PHFO 221949 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 949 AM HST Sat Aug 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Trade winds will continue to strengthen today as Tropical Storm Moke moves generally from east to west, south of the islands. This system will deliver periods of rainfall to all islands from late tonight through Monday, with the heaviest rainfall forecast along windward and southeast slopes of the Big Island. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Big Island. A Wind Advisory has been issued for parts of the Big Island and Maui County. Drier trade wind weather will return Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE... No changes have been made to the forecast track for Moke this morning. We still expect the possibility of flooding rains for parts of the Big Island. A Wind Advisory will go into effect at noon today for parts of the Big Island and Maui County. Skies were clear to partly cloudy for most areas this morning (Oahu was the exception with mostly cloudy skies), and light trade showers were moving into windward Big Island. The significant rain threat, and hence the Flash Flood Watch, is not expected to begin until midnight tonight. No changes will be made to the forecast at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 357 AM HST Sat Aug 22 2026 Latest IR satellite imagery loop continues to show deep convection several hundred miles southeast of the Big Island, in association with Tropical Storm Moke. The center of Tropical Storm Moke was located roughly 500 miles southeast of Hilo and moving at around 12 mph to the west northwest. Closer to home, mainly clear skies prevail with few low clouds pushing against the island's windward slopes. The 06Z Hilo sounding shows a fairly shallow subsidence inversion height near 5000 feet with relatively dry air both above and below the inversion. Thus, it comes as no surprise that the radar has been quiet with only isolated light showers dotted over the region. Trade winds have begun to slowly ramp up statewide the last several hours into a more moderate range, generally 10 to 20 mph, with gusts to around 30 mph at wind prone sites. Local pressure gradients will further tighten today as Hawaii becomes sandwiched between the low pressure of Tropical Storm Moke (as it moves west, south of the islands) and a 1026 mb surface high far to the northeast of the region. Winds across select zones of Maui County and the Big Island, mainly the typical tradewind prone zones in the lee of mountains or passes, should reach advisory level by this afternoon. A Wind Advisory has been issued for these areas and has a starting time of noon. Hi-resolution model guidance indicates nearing High Wind Warning levels in the lee of the Kohala mountains on Big Island later this evening into tonight. If this comes to fruition, and winds increase above guidance, the advisory for this zone would need to be upgraded. Leeward Ko'olau mountains and Wai'anae mountain zones on Oahu may be added to the advisory on a later shift as winds near criteria this evening into tonight. Trade winds remain strong through Sunday, then begin to dwindle late Sunday into Monday morning. By this evening, a slug of deeper low level moisture from Tropical Storm Moke begins to approach the Big Island from the east. Showers will become numerous along windward and southeastern sections of the Big Island late tonight through Monday with periods of embedded heavy rain. Both the GFS and ECMWF share similar solutions and the NHC track forecast for Moke has changed very little during the past several advisories. For this reason, forecast rain amounts were held steady overnight with no major changes. A Flood Watch for the Big Island will go into effect tonight and continue through Monday afternoon. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, locally up to 15 inches are possible over the windward and southeast slopes of the Big Island. It will not take a significant amount of rain to cause flash flooding due to saturated grounds from recent heavy rain. For the remaining islands, showers will also become more numerous as deeper low level moisture increases from Tropical Storm Moke. However, totals should be much less with only up to a few inches of rainfall accumulation expected. Isolated amounts up to 4 inches are possible over the eastern portion of Maui as moist easterly flow moves up the slope of Haleakala. Early next week, as Tropical Storm Moke pushes further west, away from the islands, both the GFS and ECMWF indicate some residual moisture and instability left behind in its wake. This could spell more weather weather for the area, especially over the higher terrain of Maui and the Big Island. Details will be worked out in the coming days. By Wednesday, a surface high northeast will once again dominate and bring a return of more typical trade wind weather. && .AVIATION... Trade winds will fill back in over the islands as Tropical Storm Moke approaches and passes south of the Big Island this weekend, increasing the pressure gradient across the state. Trades will gradually strengthening from east to west, becoming strong by this afternoon and continuing to build on Sunday. AIRMET Tango is in effect starting 21Z for low level turbulence downwind of island terrain. While occasional pockets of MVFR conditions will be possible within passing showers along windward and mauka locations today, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Tonight into Sunday, increasing moisture over the eastern end of the state as Tropical Storm Moke passes by to our south will result in increasing chances for heavy rainfall, along with low visibilities and ceilings, across the Big Island. This will bring more widespread MVFR and IFR conditions. && .MARINE... Trades are strengthening in response to Tropical Storm Moke approaching from the south and the Small Craft Advisory for winds and seas remains in effect through the weekend. Breezy trades then persist well into next week. Surf along E and SE shores gradually builds this weekend in response to strengthening trades and short period fresh swell emanating from Tropical Storm Moke. The direction of this swell will transition to S and then SW as Moke advances west. A High Surf Advisory (HSA) may be needed for the SE shores of the Big Island tonight into Sunday, but at this time it appears surf will fall shy of the HSA threshold. Surf along S shores remains slightly below the summer average but still slightly elevated through the weekend due to a small, long period SW swell. A series of long period S swells arrive during the middle of next week potentially bumping surf to the advisory threshold. A small medium to long period NW swell originating from Hurricane Lala provides elevated surf along N and W shores this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 357 AM HST Sat Aug 22 2026 Trade winds continue to increase today and the inversion, currently around 5-6 kft, will steadily weaken and eventually erode altogether as deep moisture associated with TS Moke moves into the area tonight into Sunday. Heavy rain is expected over windward and SE facing slopes of the Big Island on Sunday. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Kahoolawe- Kohala-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-South Haleakala-Windward Haleakala. Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday afternoon for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island Summits-Kohala-Kona. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM HST Sunday for Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters- Kauai Windward Waters. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters- Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel. && $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...Parker DISCUSSION...Thomas AVIATION...Munroe MARINE...JVC  819 FXUS63 KDLH 221948 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 248 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few sprinkles are possible this afternoon among the daytime clouds today. Clearing tonight may lead to areas of dense fog. - The next chance for showers and storms will be Monday night through Tuesday. Severe storms are possible particularly Tuesday afternoon with the passage of a cold front. - Seasonal, dry conditions return mid next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Diurnal cumulus clouds occurring this afternoon will continue, and some of these clouds may produce sprinkles, particularly in the Minnesota Arrowhead. Breezy northwest winds will gradually lighten toward evening as surface high pressure settles over the region. For tonight, mostly clear skies and light winds will allow for radiational cooling. Patchy fog will develop after midnight, with best chances for areas of dense fog in the Iron Range. Sunday will bring pleasant and quiet weather across the area with mostly sunny skies as surface high pressure remains in control. Cool low temperatures in the 40s are expected overnight. Moving into Monday, shortwave ridging aloft will maintain dry conditions through most of the daylight hours. Moisture will begin returning later in the day as an upper-level low approaches from the northwest. Elevated CAPE with a warm front will lead to chances for showers and storms Monday night into early Tuesday. The environment will be less conducive for convection Tuesday morning as warm, moist air continues to be advected into the region. Tuesday afternoon and evening, a cold front will move through and will help convection redevelop for eastern portions of the Northland. Some storms could also be severe as instability maximizes with sufficient wind shear ahead of the front. Showers and non-severe thunderstorms will remain possible into Wednesday as cyclonic flow lingers behind the departing system. Precipitation will gradually taper off from west to east as the low pressure area shifts into the Great Lakes region. High pressure and northwest flow aloft return for the second half of the work week, bringing a return to dry conditions across the Northland for Thursday and Friday. Precipitation chances remain below fifteen percent through the end of the period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Diurnal cumulus clouds will be present through much of the afternoon into the evening with smoke aloft and patchy smoke at the surface occasionally reducing visibilities at INL, HIB, and BRD to MVFR. Tonight, fog is expected with areas of dense fog possible at HIB. IFR to LIFR visibilities and ceilings are possible with the fog. Winds will be gusty today, up to 25 kts throughout the afternoon before decreasing this evening. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Northwest winds of 5 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots will continue this afternoon on western Lake Superior before easing tonight. Waves will remain around 1 to 2 feet or less. Light and variable winds are expected for Sunday. No marine headlines or thunderstorm threats are expected through Monday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Breezy northwest winds this afternoon will gust up to 20 to 25 mph with minimum relative humidity values dipping into the 30 to 45 percent range. Winds weaken significantly on Sunday, but minimum relative humidity will drop a bit lower to 30 to 40 percent. A few spots could dip below 30 percent. Relative humidity remains low Monday beforemoisture increases midweek, when chances for scattered showers and storms return. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...KML MARINE...KML FIRE WEATHER...KML  218 FXUS61 KOKX 221957 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 357 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Conditions remain unsettled this weekend, with a chance for locally heavy downpours tonight into Sunday. A few storms on Sunday could be strong to severe. 2) Drier conditions settle in early to mid next week, with temperatures averaging slightly below normal. 3) Showers and thunderstorm chances return towards the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Heights fall into tonight as mid level troughing digs south from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Though the parent surface low remains well to the north and west of the region, a weak wave of low pressure tracks north along an offshore frontal boundary tonight, passing nearby Sunday morning, before the attendant cold front moves through later in the day. Light rain or drizzle remains possible into this evening, mainly across eastern LI and coastal SE CT, before rain chances gradually increase throughout the forecast area with the approach of the frontal wave tonight. Strengthening SW flow aloft will advect deep moisture plume into the region during this time, with PWATs increasing to between 1.5 and 2 inches. Rain coverage is expected to be more scattered in nature than widespread overnight, and some areas will remain much drier than others. But with the ample moisture available, as well as some instability Sunday morning observed in forecast soundings, can't rule out localized flooding if heavier activity persists or trains over one area. A strong to severe thunderstorm also can't be ruled out in the mid to late morning hours and SPC has kept the region outlined in a marginal (level 1/5) risk, with an isolated damaging wind gust possible. Despite the rain chances, the remainder of the weekend won't be a washout, and QPF overall is expected to be modest, on the order of a quarter to half inch. Given the nature of the convective activity, there could be a few areas that pick up a quick couple of inches of rain should cells prove more persistent, but this would be quite localized if it were to occur. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Beyond the frontal passage, the closed low trough continues to shift into the Northeast, keeping mid level heights low. Surface high pressure builds in from the Midwest, with westerly flow persisting through midweek. Given the cyclonic flow and cold pool aloft, expect a fair amount of stratcu development Monday afternoon, and can't rule out a few pop up showers across the interior. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below climo for late August, daytime highs generally in the 70s to low 80s. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Guidance continues to indicate the approach of the next frontal system from the west along with a digging upper level trough late this week. This will bring a return to a more unsettled weather pattern with chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. It's too early at this time to narrow down any potential severe threats from this system. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A weak wave of low pressure slowly approaches from the south this afternoon into tonight, passing through some terminals Sunday morning. VFR this afternoon except MVFR east of the city. All terminals lower to IFR late tonight with showers and eventually improve back to VFR Sunday afternoon. Although cannot rule out thunder as early as early this evening, better overall chances (noted with PROB30) start after sunrise on Sunday with the approach and passage of the low center and subsequent approach of a weak cold front/trough later in the day. Winds mainly E to SE under 10kt through tonight,shifting briefly SE to S Sunday morning, then SW by around noontime for most terminals. Terminals east of NYC shift SW later in the day. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Shift to E-SE at KLGA may be off by an hour or two. For all terminals, IFR might not happen tonight with conds instead remaining MVFR. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Sunday: VFR with SW gusts 15-20kt. Monday through Wednesday: VFR. SW gusts around 20kt on Monday afternoon. Thursday: VFR AM, chance of sub-VFR and -shra PM. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Conditions on the coastal waters are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds with a weak pressure gradient in place through mid next week. Rip Currents: The rip current risk for the rest of today is low to moderate. A moderate risk is expected for both Sunday and Monday. The swell will be primarily from the SE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DR AVIATION...JC MARINE...JC/DR