872 FXUS63 KAPX 221602 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1202 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -- Rain/storms today. -- Breezy, cool, and showery Sunday with high swim risks. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Ridge axis stretches from British Columbia down to the Four Corners region, where the 598/599dm upper level heat dome remains in place...with an upper low just off the West Coast poised to try to eject northward. Meanwhile, downstream, NW flow overtaking the Central US, with sharp trough axis focused from KY northward through MI into central Ontario...and another shortwave trough dropping out of Manitoba as of 3z. Shortwave ridge axis over eastern Canada as upper troughing exits the Canadian coast. Bulk of the moisture across the continent is focused along the SE US coast along a boundary stretching loosely down the Atlantic coast and through the Gulf Coast states...and secondly, across the Upper Great Lakes up into Hudson Bay near/beneath the incoming troughing. Anticyclonic flow in the low/mid-levels over central Canada helping to reinforce cold northwesterly flow across Manitoba and western Ontario, where 850mb temps are in the 4-8C range attm...and a surface cold front stretching from MN to Hudson Bay reflects this cold advection idea. A cold front does stretch from the central UP down into the Mid MS Valley and Central Plains, though for our neck of the woods, the thermal change is less impressive than the wind shift attm, with winds distinctly turning around to the NW behind it (as opposed to the southerly surface flow ahead of it). Expect this latter feature will be exiting NE MI this morning as that energy digs nearly straight south from northwestern Ontario. This should keep the threat for showers and perhaps storms going through the day as multiple waves dig through the region. Strengthening pressure gradient between departing pressure falls and approaching surface high will result in strengthening northwest winds later today into tonight...and hanging on into Sunday as an somewhat unseasonable wad of PV drops in and results in a strengthening of aforementioned pressure falls to our E/NE. Falling temps aloft should generate overlake instability and lake effect rain showers to wrap up the weekend. Not impossible this idea hangs on into the start of the workweek, but attm, appears ridging should build eastward into the Upper Midwest later Monday...ahead of the next feature plowing its way across southern Canada...which should reach us by midweek, though its warm advective influences may reach us a tad sooner. It is still somewhat unclear attm how the end of next week will evolve, though signals the last few nights suggest the flow may try to flatten out across the northern CONUS as bits of energy continue to track across Canada. FORECAST DETAILS... Rain/storm chances today through Sunday (Monday?)... Think there is a reasonable shot at a PV max lifting through around midday/afternoon today, and another, more potent bit of PV digging in from the northwest toward late afternoon/evening...perhaps not all that dissimilar to yesterday's setup, but translated eastward a bit...though certainly possible there will be other, smaller-scale perturbations to contend with. We will continue to hang onto several hundred to around 1000 joules of elevated instability this morning, and think this could have a shot at becoming surface based with time today, especially toward NE Lower which should remain in the warm sector longest...though if we are able to warm enough to mix out any weak nocturnal inversion this morning, we could become surface based right away with low-LCLs, and do wonder (with my very worst-case- scenario brain) if a rogue spin-up is possible?...though shear generally remains weak till perhaps the afternoon (and even at that, is likely marginal, around 20-30kts at best)...though I am perhaps a bit aggressively biased toward the idea of lifting/negatively tilted shortwaves tending to be spicy. Some upscale growth is possible with shear vectors largely parallel to the boundary, and cooling/weak stability aloft suggests some marginal hail could be possible...but some localized heavy rains could also be a concern, especially if storms move slowly or hang out in an area for an extended time. 925mb temps falling below 14C as early as 3z tonight suggest we will begin to transition to more of a lake effect regime, and this should remain firmly in place Sunday as temps fall even further -- 850mb temps could fall below 4C, which would be sufficient to generate overlake instability over even the colder waters of central Lake Superior. Prevailing flow should generally be NW to NNW but may fluctuate back and forth a bit with the encroaching perturbations, with more northerly flow likely by later Sunday into Sunday night. Deepest moisture should remain over NE Lower MI Sunday, and this is where best coverage should be...though will expect most of the usual lake effect areas to see a little activity off and on this weekend. Fly in the ointment for the lake effect idea is that inversion heights should take a tumble later Sunday into early Monday, which could limit the extent of actual shower activity into the start of the work week. Would not be surprised to see some kind of drizzle hang on where upsloping is maximized...though attm, some (typically drier) guidance soundings hint at the idea of aggressive drying on Monday, which could help clear things out quicker. With potential for steep (15+C) delta-Ts Sunday, and 850mb winds most likely remaining at or below 30kts (at least till perhaps late), think we could have a shot at seeing some waterspouts on the northern Great Lakes, though not a sure bet. Winds this weekend...Pressure gradient will begin to strengthen this afternoon...and will only further expand/strengthen through the night into Sunday as that next wad of PV drops in, kicking cyclogenesis into high gear toward Georgian Bay/western Quebec. This should put the strongest synoptic winds generally from the EUP down into northeast Lower MI...with potential for sustained winds 10- 20kts through Sunday night. The low-level jet should strengthen as well, from 20-25kts even as early as this afternoon, upwards of 30+kts overnight. Think there could be some isolated gale-force gusts on the nearshores, but do not have much confidence in this idea attm, given that winds aloft aren't necessarily supportive. As mentioned above, prevailing winds should flit back and forth between NW and NNW with time as various perturbations pass through...but this will lead to building waves and dangerous swim conditions especially along our west/northwest facing beaches of northwest Lower, and across north(ish) facing shores of northeast Lower. While we do not specifically issue a beach forecast for Whitefish Bay, would anticipate much of that north-facing coastline from Bay Mills/Point Iroquois toward the mouth of the Tahquamenon River will also see high wave action and dangerous swimming conditions (not to mention high waves out on the Bay itself). ...Not that the cool, showery, blustery weather is overly inviting for beachgoing in the first place. Cool temps Sunday...Seasonably cool air mass supports highs in the 60s for most, though possibly closer to 70 near Saginaw Bay, particularly where downsloping and some clearing could come into play. Given anticipated showers/cloud cover (though it could end up less bullish than current expectations), have suspicions some of the interior areas could struggle to get out of the lower 60s, and would not be surprised if parts of the EUP stayed in the upper 50s. Combined with showers and breezy winds... it will definitely feel more like fall than late August. Temps should begin to warm Monday, about 5-10 degrees compared to Sunday, and if more aggressive drying occurs, perhaps bounce back up much closer to normal than current expectations...with potential for lows in the 40s again Monday night, especially if high pressure settles in overhead, though do have to wonder if we will end up with fog after the expected showers this weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1156 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Kinda a fall-like feel to the forecast. Current band of showers and storms should exit off to the east the next few hours, leaving behind much more scattered showers for this afternoon into early evening. Skies should also scatter out some, with cloud bases likely increasing to VFR. May see a return of some MVFR overcast later tonight into Sunday morning, especially at KCIU, KPLN, and KAPN as deeper low level moisture attempts to pivot back overhead. Will also likely see some lake moisture contribution as the airmass continues to cool. Cannot even rule out some isolated like lake effect rain showers into Sunday morning. Winds will continue to swing around to northwest and become increasingly gusty in the process. Strongest gusts are expected on Sunday, when gusts will likely exceed 25 knots at times. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Monday for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Monday for LHZ346. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT Monday for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Monday for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342-344. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to midnight EDT Sunday night for LMZ345-346. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322. && $$ DISCUSSION...MSB/FEF AVIATION...JZ  042 FXUS63 KAPX 221607 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1207 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms continue into this evening. Locally heavy rain and lightning will be the main threats. Severe storms are not expected. - Cool, breezy, and scattered rain showers Sunday. - Dry weather expected to start next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1202 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Troughing draped across much of the eastern half of the continent will continue to amplify this weekend as a strong jet digs across the northern Great Plains/Midwest today, rounding the base of the trough over the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic tonight and Sunday. Strong divergence aloft will provide continued support for the surface cyclone stretching from Hudson Bay down into the Great Lakes as it works east this weekend. Ridging sliding over the northern Great Plains/Canadian Plains will help build surface high pressure into the Great Lakes on the backside of this system through the first half of the week. Troughing then looks to move back into the region by the end of the work week. Forecast Details: A line of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move east across northeast lower this afternoon into this evening. Cannot completely rule out some stray showers across other areas, but the bulk of showers/storms will remain east of I-75 into the early evening hours coinciding with the weak cold front passage. As has been the case so far today, the primary focus with this activity will be heavy downpours and lightning -- with reports of over 2" of rainfall in localized areas so far. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out, but severe storms are not anticipated given weak shear in place. As a cooler, relatively moist airmass overspreads the area with northwest low-level flow behind the front, additional isolated to scattered rain showers will be possible beginning late this evening and continuing at times through Sunday. In fact, our first true taste of fall may be Sunday. Northwest winds will increase to 10-15 mph with gusts to 25-35 mph at times through the day with noticeably cooler temperatures during the day. Little daytime warming is anticipated given northwest flow and cloud cover/shower activity -- likely keeping temperatures in the low to mid 60s through the afternoon. Right in line with the fall feel will be the potential for some waterspouts over the Great Lakes nearshore waters this weekend given the cool, moist air passing over the relatively warmer lake surface. Looking into the work week, rain chances will come to an end by Monday with dry weather in store through the first half of the week as high pressure builds in. Cooler temperatures in the low to mid 70s are expected on Monday before warming back into the upper 70s and low 80s through the rest of the week. Rain chances look to return on Wednesday, but may hold off until late Wednesday as some of the latest guidance has trended slower on arrival time in most recent runs. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 634 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Areas of lower cigs out there this morning, most widespread in northern lower MI (mainly MVFR, in spots IFR). These cigs will tend to gradually improve thru early afternoon. These are also some showers out there, especially north of TVC. The best chance for heavier SHRA and TSRA will be this afternoon/early evening at APN. Precip coverage will decrease somewhat tonight. Winds become nw and somewhat breezy this afternoon. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Monday for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Monday for LHZ346. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT Monday for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Monday for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342-344. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to midnight EDT Sunday night for LMZ345-346. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322. && $$ DISCUSSION...DJC AVIATION...JZ  349 FXUS62 KJAX 221610 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1210 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Isolated Strong Thunderstorms Today. Hazards: Gusty Winds (40-60 mph), localized flooding & frequent lightning. Main Concern Areas: I-95 corridor and areas north of I-10. Stronger Storm Timing: 3 PM 10 PM - SUN-MON: Isolated to Scattered Thunderstorms, mainly NE FL. Increasing thunderstorm coverage Tuesday-Friday - Moderate Afternoon Rip Current Risk Today and Sunday - Low Chance of Central Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Development Late Week && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Highlights through Tonight: - Potential for strong thunderstorms this afternoon and evening Lingering upper shortwaves ahead of the weakening frontal boundary will help trigger showers and isolated storms moving inland from the Gulf. Convection will then spread east-northeastward through the day in the general southwest steering flow. Best chances for storms will be along the sea breeze merger near I-95 and SE GA closer to the weakening frontal boundary. A few strong storms may be possible along boundary mergers producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Convection will shift off the Atlantic coast later this evening. Temps still expected to reach the lower/middle 90s ahead of convection with peak heat indices around 105F, but still below Heat Advisory criteria. Low temps near normal in the lower to middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period (Sunday and Monday): - Lower Thunderstorm Chances Sunday, Isolated Strong Storms Possible - Hotter with Daily Peak Heat Index near 105 Drier air begins to infiltrate across the area from the northwest Sunday as the mid level trough axis across the eastern seaboard weakens and nudges farther to the east. This pattern shift will bring much lower rain chances across southeast GA Sunday (rain chances < 15%) as precipitable water content falls below 1.5 inches, which is below the 25th percentile for this time of year. Higher precipitable water content near 2 inches will focus across northeast Florida Sunday afternoon, mainly south of the Interstate 10 corridor, with morning showers and isolated storms edging inland from the Gulf Coast region under southwest winds, then convective coverage expands eastward into the afternoon toward the Atlantic coast. A few stronger storms will be possible across the St. Johns River basin and toward the Atlantic coast in the afternoon where low level boundaries merge under seasonably cool 500 mb temps of -6.5 to - 7 deg, near the median values for the date. Monday, models trending a little wetter with the development of another deeper eastern seaboard mid level trough axis, with a return of PWATs back above 2 inches for much of the area under light west- southwest steering flow as a surface front slides southward into central GA. Rain chances nudge up into the 20-40% chance range with a prevailing west coast sea breeze regime and possibly convection ongoing into Monday night across southeast GA with the approach of the surface front and a passing mid level short wave trough. A few strong to isolated severe storms possible as mid level temperatures cool across southeast GA into the -7 to -8 degC range at 500 mb. High temperatures warm back to above climo values in the mid to upper 90s with heat index values generally topping out near 105 Sunday to 105-109 degF Monday across northeast FL. Near to just slightly at Heat Advisory criteria Monday for northeast FL. Overnight lows will trends in the low/mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Main Highlights This Period (Tuesday through Saturday): - More Active Weather Pattern Returns Tuesday Deeper moisture returns and lingers Tuesday onward as as broad upper troughing establishes across the eastern seaboard with prevailing WSW steering flow across the region and several mid level shortwaves progged to enhance daily thunderstorm activity. This pattern favors a dominant west coast sea breeze regime across FL, sea breeze and outflow mergers toward the late afternoon and evening storms favoring near the I-95, and then late afternoon and early evening storms across southeast GA near meandering surface front. Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the week with highs generally in the low 90s Tuesday onward with heat index values generally below local heat advisory criteria at this time. Tropics Outlook: NHC has a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation mid to late week across the central Atlantic. Locally, rip current activity could become more enhanced late week depending on the evolution of this system. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Line of showers has already pressed through GNV and expect just VCTS/VCSH to linger there through the rest of the afternoon hours. Meanwhile this line will progress to the NE and will need to include a mixture of PROB30/TEMPO groups at remaining terminals, mainly in the 18-22Z time frame for NE FL terminals and 19-23Z for SSI, for the potential of gusty winds to 25-30 knots along with MVFR conds at times. Convection chances still expected to fade after sunset with the usual VFR mid/high clouds overnight, and potential MVFR VSBYS in fog at VQQ from 07-11Z. For Sunday morning, will need to add in at least VCSH for GNV by 12Z and VCTS by 15Z with the early development of convection along the NE Gulf coast, very similar to today. && .MARINE... A frontal zone will extend across the Carolinas and into Georgia with a high pressure ridge to the southeast. Rounds of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms can be expected each day. Brief southerly wind surges are expected during the late afternoon and evening hours, but winds are expected to remain below Small Craft Exercise Caution levels. The cold front will push into the local waters Sunday night into Monday and then lift back northward as a warm front by mid-week. Rip Currents: Surf/breakers will remain 1 to 2 feet through early next week in the mainly offshore flow with overall low rip current risk, but brief periods of moderate risk will exist during the afternoon hours as local onshore sea breeze develops each day. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Locally High Dispersion Sunday And Monday For Se Ga Unsettled weather continues today with showers and storms possible along a stalling front and the sea breezes this afternoon. A few storms will be capable of strong wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. West to southwesterly breezes continue today and for the next several days with the exception of the coastal areas where the afternoon Atlantic sea breeze will shift winds east to east- southeast. A dry northwest flow will bring lower humidity and mostly dry weather to southeast Georgia Sunday with minimum humidity between 30- 40% while scattered to isolated afternoon showers and storms will continue across northeast FL. Monday, continued hot with drier air limiting rain chances further with isolated afternoon limiting and evening showers and storms. Hotter temperatures on Sunday and Monday will increase mixing heights across southeast GA, leading to locally high dispersion each afternoon. Fog Potential: Significant fog is unlikely, and any strong wind will be associated with nearby thunderstorm activity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 93 71 97 72 / 50 10 20 10 SSI 90 76 92 77 / 60 30 10 10 JAX 94 74 95 74 / 40 20 20 10 SGJ 93 75 93 75 / 30 20 30 10 GNV 92 73 92 73 / 20 10 30 0 OCF 92 73 92 72 / 30 10 40 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$  479 FXUS63 KOAX 221611 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1111 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lingering low chances (20-40%) of showers and isolated thunderstorms until mid-morning Saturday, with precipitation ending leaving a pleasant day. - Shower and thunderstorm chances ramp up late Sunday into Monday (30-70%) - Periodic storm chances continue into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1105 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Hey, I did sfc analysis by hand tonight! It reveals a stalled front draped from near Clarinda, through the Omaha metro, to Albion and continuing west. Widely isolated showers continue across the area this evening, but severe weather never did materialize here despite the conditional threat earlier today. The atmosphere had the buoyancy and shear available, but due to cloud cover, initiation didn't happen in Nebraska. A few light showers lingered past sunset in far southwest Iowa along an elevated front. Expect the mostly dry conditions may be interrupted by redevelopment around 2:00 AM as a H5 shortwave pushes southeast through central Nebraska. Elevated CAPE peaks only at about 1,000 J/kg and effective shear values will be nerfed after the subtraction of the boundary layer (50 kts end up closer to 25 knots). The LLJ is weak and pointed farther west than usual. The 22Z SSCRAM suggests less than a 5% chance of severe hail or wind overnight. That might be a little low, but it's got the right idea. Have PoPs peaking near 30% at 6am in the SW 1/4th of the CWA before wrapping up by 9AM. Omaha, Norfolk, and points north and east should remain dry. .SATURDAY... The remainder of Saturday will be dry with sunny skies by noon. As the sfc pressure axis pushes through, light northerly winds will slowly become easterly by midnight. It'll be a great day to get some yard work done. Darn it. .SUNDAY... PoPs 45% (west) return on Sunday with a shortwave rounding the H5 ridge. Most will remain dry, but with the associated cloud cover, temps will slip by about 5 degrees. PoPs 40% (south) to 70% (north) climb higher after midnight, when 00Z guidance suggests a convective complex pushes through SD in the evening and into eastern Nebraska / western Iowa before sunrise Monday morning. .NEXT WEEK... The busy pattern continues. To date, OAX has issued its fourth most t-storm warnings this year (PoR 1986). Transient ridging ahead of a cutoff low traversing the Prairie provinces allows temps to climb a bit for Monday and Tuesday. That low's attendant cold front pushes through on Tuesday afternoon. This will bring another 40% chance of overnight thunderstorms thanks to the stalled front and isentropic upglide provided by the LLJ. 12Z global models suggest regular chance of precip and thunder through the work week as the area remains on the periphery of the southern high pressure dome. Looking for some change to hang your hopes on? All three deterministic global models develop zonal flow by next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1107 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are favored through the forecast period. Light northerly winds will continue, shifting to southerly tonight. A few diurnally driven cumulus clouds are expected around FL070 this afternoon. Patchy fog and MVFR visibility potential will move in Sunday morning (23/10-13Z), though this chance has been left out of the current TAF package due to the low confidence in coverage. Scattered showers, with an isolated thunderstorm possible, will approach KOFK and KLNK from the west after 23/12Z, with a 20% chance of impacting the terminals. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...Wood  872 FXUS66 KSEW 221621 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 921 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Weak upper level low off the northern Oregon coast this morning will continue to weaken and move northeast today. The low will be off the Washington coast tonight and move inland as an upper level trough Sunday morning. Upper level ridge building in behind trough later Sunday will move east Monday. Western Washington on the backside of the ridge Tuesday. Another upper level trough arriving Wednesday or Thursday hanging around into Friday. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...The upper low is slowly approaching the western Washington coast this morning. Convection developed early this morning, and continues across the Cascades, and primarily north of King County. Widespread thunderstorm activity has been observed over the last few hours over the Cascades, with minimal rainfall due to fast storm motions. There may be a brief break in the convection around midday before surface heating leads to destabilization and another round of afternoon and evening convection, primarily focused in the North Cascades. Will also need to monitor the low, but non-zero, threat for severe wind gusts in any stronger t-storm this afternoon into the Northern Cascades. Lightning may lead to new fire starts as well. The low weakens to an upper level trough tonight. Trough moving inland near the Canadian border after midnight keeping at least a slight chance of showers over most of the area. Marine layer moving inland again approaching the Puget Sound by 12z Sunday. Lows in the 50s. Trough moving off to the east with an upper level ridge building into Western Washington Sunday afternoon. Shower activity confined to the North Cascades Sunday afternoon. Low level onshore flow with the marine layer returning to the coast in the afternoon. Highs once again in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Upper level ridge continuing to build Sunday night before moving east Monday. Onshore flow weakening bringing up the possibility that the marine layer does not get east of Puget Sound Monday morning. Even if it does it will be shallow and be gone by mid to late morning. More sunshine and warmer temperatures aloft adding up to a warmer day Monday. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Lows Monday morning in the 50s. JD/Felton && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...Extended models in good agreement this morning. Western Washington on the backside of the upper level ridge Monday night into Tuesday for one more warm day. Highs in the 70s to mid 80s. Upper level trough moving into the area Wednesday hanging around into Friday. Best chance for showers later Wednesday into Thursday. Much cooler with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s all three days. Through the 21st Seattle is only 0.5 degrees above normal for the month of August. This cooler end to the month will make it a close call if August ends up being above normal for temperatures. July was slightly below normal. The last time July and August had below normal temperatures in Seattle was 2011. Felton && .AVIATION...Fast moving scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this morning. Expecting this activity to continue into the afternoon and then gradually subside this evening into tonight. Any thunderstorm that impacts the terminals has the potential for frequent lightning, gusty/erratic winds, heavy downpours, and reduced visibility. MVFR to IFR cigs this morning will continue to improve by this afternoon to VFR, with the exception of the coast. Another round of low cigs Sunday morning. KSEA...IFR cigs will gradually improve this morning, with VFR expected by the afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may impact the terminal through this afternoon. However, confidence isnot high enough at the moment to include TSRA in the TAF. Thunderstorms will have the potential for frequent lightning, gusty/erratic winds, heavy downpours, and reduced visibility. Outside of thunderstorms, southwesterly winds 6-8 kt. 29 && .MARINE...A weak surface low will move into the coastal waters today. The low will dissipate tonight. High pressure will rebuild Sunday and remain over the area through Tuesday. A weak frontal system will move across the waters midweek. Winds picking up later this morning but staying 20 knots or less into the afternoon hours. Diurnal westerlies in the Strait of Juan de Fuca each evening for the next few days but at this point peak winds look to be around 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet for the next few days. Felton && .FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across western Washington this morning. As a result, a Red Flag Warning remains in place until the early evening. A brief lull is possible towards midday but RAP analysis is picking up on 1000-1500 j/kg of surface based CAPE in the central to northern Cascades this afternoon. As an upper-low offshore continues to track inland, diffluent southerly flow aloft will help to fire off an additional round of showers and thunderstorms - mainly over the North Cascades. Upper level ridge building in later Sunday. Low level onshore flow pattern later Sunday through Tuesday will result in good relative humidity recoveries in the overnight hours easing fire weather concerns. Another upper level trough arriving in the middle of next week increasing the chances for convection. Felton 41/Felton && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for West Slopes of the North Cascades Generally above 1500 Feet. Red Flag Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for West Slopes of the Central Cascades Generally above 1500 Feet. PZ...None. && $$  049 FXUS64 KEPZ 221626 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1026 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1026 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain on today. Thunderstorm chances will diminish this weekend as upper level high pressure builds closer to the area. - Above normal temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas through the week ahead. Lowland highs will range upper 90s to 105, which will approach daily records. - Slight chances of thunderstorms return Thursday into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1026 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Upper high centered over New Mexico with fair amount of recycled moisture trapped under the high over the CWA. PWs ranging from .80 to 1.00 inch, with dewpoints in the 40s to 50. A few thunderstorms were able to continue much of the overnight period across northern Dona Ana County to Black Range/Grant County. Those thunderstorms/ showers have mostly ended at this time but debris clouds will persist for a few hours. Expect slight chance of mountain thunderstorms again this afternoon from around noon to 6-7 pm. As mentioned above, debris clouds lingering over the Black Range may delay thunderstorm development a few hours in that area. Sunday through Wednesday...upper high nearly stationary over New Mexico but slowly drifts toward the Arizona border. Little chance of thunderstorms but always a non-zero chance of an isolated thunderstorm over the mountains. Temperatures will remain very warm/hot with high temps each ranging from around 98 to 105; approaching late August record high temperatures. Temperatures may approach Heat Advisory for the El Paso/lower valley zones. Thursday into the weekend...upper high drifts into eastern Arizona, bringing a more northerly flow pattern over the CWA. So a return of low POPs is warranted for the mountains. Can't rule out a lowland storm or two also, mainly over Otero, Sierra and northern Dona Ana Counties, though this isn't reflected in the grids at this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1026 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions expected through the period. SKC except BKN100 over northern Luna, Western Sierra, and eastern Grant Counties. These clouds should dissipate over the next 3 hours. Developing from 18Z- 20Z over the mountains...isolated BKN070CB -TSRA. Northeast/east mid level flow could bring a few storms down to the lowlands 23Z-02Z over the lowlands of Otero/Sierra Counties. Gusty winds of 25-35 knots possible near storms, otherwise surface winds southeast 8-12 knots this afternoon, becoming variable AOB 7 knots this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1026 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Fire weather concerns should remain low through the coming week. Temperatures will remain quite warm, near record levels for much of this time. This combined with low humidities will allow fuels to dry out some, but no significant winds are expected through the forecast period. A few mountain thunderstorms are possible this afternoon but then the chances shrink Sunday through Wednesday. Upper high drifting off to the west Thursday and beyond will bring slight chances of thunderstorms back to the mountain zones. Min RH: Lowlands 10-15% through Wednesday, increasing to 12-18% Thursday and Friday. Gila/Black Range Mountains...15-25% through Friday. Sacramento/Capitan Mountains...20-35% through Friday. Vent rates good-very good through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 101 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 68 97 68 99 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 70 100 68 101 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 68 99 69 101 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 53 77 53 78 / 0 0 0 10 Truth or Consequences 71 99 71 101 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 65 93 65 95 / 10 0 10 10 Deming 71 100 69 102 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 72 100 70 100 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 77 101 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 70 100 70 102 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 74 104 74 106 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 69 95 70 97 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 73 101 72 102 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 73 100 71 102 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 75 101 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 69 99 67 102 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 69 102 67 103 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 73 100 72 102 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 68 99 66 100 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 58 90 59 92 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 57 88 57 90 / 0 0 0 10 Timberon 56 86 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 61 90 62 92 / 20 10 10 0 Hillsboro 70 98 69 99 / 10 0 0 0 Spaceport 68 99 65 101 / 10 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 58 92 59 93 / 20 0 10 20 Hurley 67 96 66 97 / 10 0 0 0 Cliff 65 101 68 101 / 20 0 10 10 Mule Creek 62 97 63 97 / 20 0 10 10 Faywood 69 95 68 97 / 10 0 0 0 Animas 71 100 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 70 99 69 99 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 69 99 68 99 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 67 94 65 94 / 0 0 0 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner  121 FXUS64 KLIX 221628 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1128 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Dangerous heat continues with afternoon heat indices in the 105-113 degree range through the weekend. Warm overnight temperatures will offer limited relief. - Isolated storms are expected this afternoon and evening with more scattered storms Sunday and Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Tonight through Monday, upper level ridging will remain in place over the area, and we will enter the "ring of fire" pattern. Southerly surface winds will continue to help advect warm air and moisture into the area, increasing the humidity across the region. Daily isolated to scattered showers and storms will be expected for the next few days. These storms will have the potential for frequent lightning and gusty subsevere winds (40- 50mph). These storms are not expected to be severe, based on recent model trends. The heat continues as ridging builds back over the area. Highs in the upper 90s to low 100s combined with heat index values in the 105-112 degrees range will be quite warm and uncomfortable. Heat advisories are in effect for Sunday and will likely be needed Monday and beyond. Be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if you will be spending time outdoors. MSW && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 High pressure continues to build over the area for the rest of the workweek. Southerly surface winds will continue to advect warm and moist air into the region, increasing humidities for the area. Conditions will be quite dry overall thanks to the upper level pattern with PoPs around 10-20% for the long term forecast. An isolated shower or storm will be possible daily during peak heating hours. The main risk with these storms where they occur would be frequent lightning and gusty winds (30-50mph). The heat will continue with persistent ridging building over the area. With highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values in the 105-110 degree range, it will be quite uncomfortable outside. So, be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if spending time outdoors. MSW && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist through the forecast period. MSW && .MARINE... Issued at 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Surface high pressure centered over the central Gulf will maintain a generally weak pressure gradient through much of the period. Northerly winds around 10 knots will become W then SW to start the week. A predominantly light southerly flow will set up by mid week and remain through much of next week. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible with winds and waves higher in and near this activity. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSW LONG TERM....MSW AVIATION...MSW MARINE...MSW  290 FXUS63 KGLD 221632 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1032 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing sub-severe storms in northwest Kansas will track southeastward into central Kansas by sunrise. - Storms forecast to develop along the CO Front Range late this afternoon will track east toward the KS border this evening. A few storms capable of producing small hail and localized wind gusts up to 65 mph are possible, mainly in eastern CO between 7-11 PM MDT. - Expect near average temperatures today followed by a modest warming trend on Sunday and Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 230 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 No significant change(s) to prior forecast reasoning and expectations for the weekend. Today, the upper ridge axis will run from eastern Wyoming and Colorado to the Texas panhandle. Convection will develop in the afternoon over the Rockies and Front Range with the southwest flow, then move across the eastern plains and spreading into the area tonight. With the later arrival, probably not until after 03Z, storms will be weakening but may still pose a marginal risk for damaging wind gusts as they make their way across the area through the overnight. The ridge flattens out on Sunday and extends from the Four Corners to the Texas panhandle. Zonal flow over the top through northern Colorado will initiate convection over the mountains and Front Range, and once again make the trek across the plains and into the area Sunday night. These will arrive slightly earlier, 00-02z, in far northeast Colorado and may still pose a marginal wind and hail threat, but with only weak instability forecast and deep layer shear around 20 kts, severe chances will be low. Storms will gradually weaken as they move east into the remainder of the area Sunday evening. The ridge strengthens a bit on Monday with height rises in Colorado, and the zonal flow is through southern Wyoming. Forecast instability is weak and generally less than 1000 j/kg, though deep layer shear does increase to around 40 kts. RFS suggests a few scattered storms developing, moving east and then southeast with the mean flow Monday afternoon and evening in areas generally north of Interstate 70 with perhaps a marginal risk for wind and hail. The temperature trend for the period will be near to slightly above normal through the weekend, then above normal on Monday with temperatures currently forecast in the mid to upper 90s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 202 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Synoptically, a ridge is forecast to be over the SW CONUS and currently looks to remain relatively stationary. Throughout the week, there appears to be a few shortwaves moving though the CWA, which may bring higher precipitation chances. High temperatures for the week are forecast to be in the 90s for the majority of the area. The "coolest" day for the period looks to be Wednesday, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s, whereas Friday looks to be the hottest with highs in the mid 90s. If the ridge begins to amplify or move eastward, as guidance hints, higher temperatures could be seen. Winds throughout the week are forecast to be calm to breezy, and relative humidity values are expected to be higher than 30%, which should help minimize fire weather concerns. Precipitation chances are present during the week. As some shortwaves move around the high, they will likely to be our main precipitation producers. The day currently with the highest precipitation chances is Tuesday. Guidance hints at some vorticity associated with the shortwave as it moves through Tuesday afternoon. Both CAPE and shear appear sufficient for severe storms; however, some guidance indicates a mismatch between higher/lower CAPE and lower/higher shear, which could lead to less organized storms. Looking at qpf, some guidance shows the possibility of heavy rainfall with these storms, which is something to keep in mind as we get closer to Tuesday. The rest of the week there is roughly a 15-30% chance of PoPs as various shortwaves move through the region. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1030 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the afternoon with mostly clear skies and light winds. Tonight, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move out of Colorado late this evening and overnight. There is around a 30% probability of impacting KGLD with brief gusty winds and visibility reductions due to rain. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...Holdren AVIATION...024  326 FXUS63 KOAX 221632 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1132 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and pleasant conditions this afternoon, with high temperatures in the mid 80s. - Patchy fog is possible overnight, followed by scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday morning and again Sunday night. - Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances continue next week, with high temperatures generally in the mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1120 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Today and Tonight... Water vapor imagery and objective analysis late this morning depict an amplified ridge in place over the western CONUS with subsequent troughing in place over the eastern CONUS. Sandwiched between the two, we continued to reside under northwesterly flow aloft as a train of disturbance slide over the ridge and into the area. Surface high pressure is filtering into the area following the departure of morning showers and storms, helping to bring a dry and pleasant afternoon with plenty of sunshine. High temperatures are expected to peak in the mid 80s, near seasonal norms for mid-August. Patchy fog development is expected overnight, especially over far eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa where clear skies will bring radiational cooling and winds remain the lightest. Model soundings indicate a narrow saturated layer near the surface, likely confining fog to low-lying and wind protected areas. Sunday... Late tonight into Sunday morning, a round of convection is expected to initiate east of the Front Range as a shortwave disturbance pivots into the area. Into Sunday morning, the convection is expected to progress eastward across Nebraska, bringing PoPs of 40-60% into east-central Nebraska, generally in the 4-9 AM timeframe. Instability will gradually decrease as storm progress towards the area, limiting overall storm intensity and coverage with eastern progression. Lingering cloud cover, and perhaps a shower or two lingering into the afternoon, will keep high temperatures confined to the upper 70s and low 80s. Later Sunday, convection is expected to initiate across east-central South Dakota as an midlevel shortwave disturbance pivots into the northern Plains. Convection is expected to becoming more widespread into the late evening/early overnight period of the LLJ ramps up, helping to form a larger cluster of thunderstorms that will eventually push southeastward, into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. How far south this complex progresses into the area remains in question, as instability remains maximized around 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE in northeast Nebraska, decreasing southward. However, increasing low- level moisture transport and WAA could help support scattered thunderstorms through the overnight period. For now, PoPs peak in the 50-75% range north of Interstate-80. A strong to severe storm can't be ruled out, though the limited instability over much of the area should help to limit any widespread severe weather. Monday and Beyond... Into the work week, we will continue in the pattern or northwesterly flow aloft with a train of disturbances bringing periodic precipitation chances. High temperatures will generally reside in the low to mid 80s through the week. Tuesday night into early Wednesday, a more potent disturbance pushing across the central and northern Plains will push a cold front southward across the area. The front won't have much of an impact on temperatures, but will bring a round of 30-50% PoPs to the area. Periodic 15% PoPs exist through the week, though dry periods are expected to outweigh wet ones. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1107 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are favored through the forecast period. Light northerly winds will continue, shifting to southerly tonight. A few diurnally driven cumulus clouds are expected around FL070 this afternoon. Patchy fog and MVFR visibility potential will move in Sunday morning (23/10-13Z), though this chance has been left out of the current TAF package due to the low confidence in coverage. Scattered showers, with an isolated thunderstorm possible, will approach KOFK and KLNK from the west after 23/12Z, with a 20% chance of impacting the terminals. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...Wood  552 FXUS63 KDVN 221639 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1139 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather expected through the weekend. - Outside of yet another system centered around Wednesday, mainly dry conditions are forecast to prevail until late next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Deep northwesterly flow aloft across the Upper Midwest through Sunday with high pressure shifting eastward from the Plains across the area. This will bring quiet weather to the area through the weekend. Today and Sunday are forecast to have similar high temperatures with slightly cooler temperatures on Sunday. The biggest change will be dewpoints falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s on Sunday resulting in lower humidity. Gusty winds are expected today with high pressure to our west and north to northwesterly winds of 10 to 14 MPH and gusts up to 25 MPH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to continue through much of the next week with some operational models showing a transition to more zonal flow across the CONUS to end the next week. Although there are numerous disturbances moving through the flow passing near to the area the next chance (20 to 35%) for showers and storms appears to be late Tuesday night through Wednesday when a stronger shortwave moves across the region. Rainfalls will be light with forecast probability of a tenth of an inch of rain or more near 0 percent. Monday is expected to be the coolest day of the period with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s and low temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. High temperatures the rest of the week are forecast to be in the lower to mid 80s. Monday night onward, low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1138 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR will prevail through the period with high pressure in control. Steady NW winds (10-20 kts) through the day will subside by this evening. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cousins LONG TERM...Cousins AVIATION...Uttech  549 FXUS63 KIWX 221639 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1239 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and isolated storms possible east of I-69 this afternoon and evening. - Breezy today with northwest winds gusting as high as 25 to 30 mph. - 20-30% chances for scattered lake effect rain showers downwind of Lake Michigan tonight through Sunday. - Dangerous swimming conditions persist through the weekend on southern Lake Michigan. - Below normal temperatures and much lower humidity Sunday through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1237 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A typical early fall-like weekend is ahead with clouds, showers, breezy conditions, and cooler temperatures. A low pressure system is located over northern Lower Michigan with its attendant cold front positioned just west of IN-15 currently. Scattered showers and isolated storms can be seen on radar this afternoon, especially along and east of I-69, where a 500 mb shortwave is aiding in convective development as the front pushes east. Can't rule out an isolated strong storm or two (especially in northwest Ohio) as there is an area of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 700 J/kg DCAPE across northern Indiana and northwest Ohio but the likelihood of organized severe weather is low given marginal shear of only 20 kts and poor low/mid level lapse rates. In addition to showers and storms, a deepening pressure gradient on the backside of this system is expected to generate gusty northwest winds throughout this afternoon and evening. Northwest winds will be sustained around 10 to 15 mph with gusts as high as 25 to 30 mph until sunset. Northwest cyclonic flow and delta Ts of ~14C (water temps ~24C, 10C at 850mb tonight) should produce at least a weak lake effect response tonight with scattered showers overnight into Sunday morning in the vicinity of Lake Michigan. Showers should gradually increase in coverage across northern Indiana downwind of Lake Michigan into the afternoon on Sunday. It will be breezy again out of the northwest on Sunday and then light winds return Monday and Tuesday as the pressure gradient eases. Did bump up cloud cover and lower temps for tomorrow as this pattern typically produces more lake effect clouds downwind of Lake Michigan than the NBM picks up on. Dangerous swimming conditions are ongoing for southeast Lake Michigan beaches and are expected to continue through Sunday. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for La Porte and Berrien counties through 11 PM EDT Sunday. High swim risks are expected both days with northwest winds generating 3 to 5 ft waves. Strong rip and structural currents are also expected! If your weekend plans include heading to the beach, heed all warnings from lifeguards and stay out of the water! A dry, continental airmass from central Canada moves in later Sunday as high pressure builds across the Midwest and Great Lakes. Much lower humidity and several days of slightly below normal temperatures will make for refreshing early fall-like days Sunday through Tuesday with highs in the mid 70s and dew points only in the low to mid 50s! Get the pumpkin spice lattes ready for the crisp mornings ahead as lows Monday and Tuesday morning will only be in the low 50s! Wednesday is a bit warmer (highs 75 to 80 degrees) and features the next chance for rain and storms. A similar setup, although not as pronounced as today, is likely with another upper level trough over the Great Lakes and a surface cold front sweeping through. At this time, have maintained 20-50% chances for scattered rain and storms Wednesday, with the highest chances in the evening. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 803 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Predominantly MVFR to VFRconditions at the terminals today behind a cold front, with potential for additional showers/storms later this morning/early afternoon as a shortwave moves through. Otherwise, light west-southwest winds shift northwest with gusts up to around 22kts this afternoon. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...MCD  636 FXUS65 KGJT 221643 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1043 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Monsoonal moisture and a robust disturbance will cause precipitation chances to become more widespread today. - Heavier rainfall today could lead to localized flash flooding over burn scars and susceptible terrain. - Temperatures gradually cool off for the weekend and into next week with a warmup late in the week, remaining above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1043 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND: A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms along the leading edge of a shortwave are moving through eastern Utah and progressing into western Colorado this morning, which models are not picking up on or initializing well with. This line was fairly active through the early morning hours in eastern Utah. This is likely due to added upper level support from a low pressure trough moving into the Pacific Northwest, allowing the flow to shift to more southerly and therefore pull up deeper monsoonal moisture last night into this morning and act on the instability already in place. This trough is also nudging the high pressure ridge eastward. Deterministic models are fairly consistent in showing this deeper moisture plume working its way across our CWA today with PWAT anomalies jumping to 160 to 180 percent of normal. Where the models differ is in terms of how robust or widespread the convection will be. The GFS is not as widespread but the hi-res CAMs, particularly the HRRR, seem to indicate a later start to afternoon convection likely due to this morning convection and cloud cover. After this morning wave moves eastward, afternoon convection looks to refire off the higher terrain, with coverage and more robust convection increasing late this afternoon into the evening hours as a robust shortwave moves through the flow providing added forcing and support. CAPE will be sufficient with around 500 to 800 J/kg with mixing ratios in the 5 to 6 g/kg range which is sufficient for heavy rain potential with any storms today. With the better steering flow, there is a good chance storms will impact some lower valleys as well late in the day. The deeper moisture in place today with the added forcing provided by the robust shortwave will increase flash flooding and debris flow concerns, especially over burn scars and susceptible terrain. Be weather aware and make sure you have a way to receive watches and warnings. Cannot rule out some convection continuing through the overnight hours but most activity should wind down by midnight or shortly after. On Sunday, the Pacific Northwest trough will have lifted out into Canada with the robust shortwave already out into the Plains, leaving us in a westerly flow as the shortwave and trough allow the high to lay over. We will still see residual moisture in place with another day of afternoon showers and storms, but without the added forcing, storms should be mostly confined to the high terrain. Flash flooding is still a concern over burn scars but looks to remain more localized on Sunday as there isn't a real focus for where the better chances reside. Highs this weekend will be cooler than previous few days with temperatures around 5 degrees cooler but still remaining 5 degrees above normal. NEXT WEEK: The high pressure and above normal moisture will remain in place through this coming week with the high slowly meandering back to the west across the Desert Southwest (south of the Four Corners) by mid to late week. Some shortwaves will move through the flow across the north up and around the high pressure through the Northern Rockies, providing a little lift for some afternoon convection each day but the focus seems to be over the high terrain with quite a bit of uncertainty as to the quality of this moisture with the heavy rain potential looking more localized as this moisture gets recycled under the high. PWAT anomalies slowly trend downward as this high shifts westward and drier air is pulled into the Great Basin. Daytime highs hold steady as we move into the coming week with highs around 5 degrees above normal and gradually increase towards around 5 to 10 degrees above normal by late week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 426 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Isolated showers continue to move north across eastern Utah. Isolated to scattered showers will increase across the region through the late morning with the higher terrain seeing more widespread showers and thunderstorms developing around 18Z. Some of the storms will move off the terrain over the lower valleys through the afternoon with most TAF sites seeing some impacts. Lightning, gusts to 45 kts and brief heavy rain producing MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be the primary threats from these storms. Otherwise, outside of the storms, expect VFR conditions through the TAF period with generally light terrain driven winds. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MDA AVIATION...DB  614 FXUS66 KLOX 221642 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 942 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS...22/930 AM. Minimal changes expected through the weekend with above normal temperatures. Patchy night and morning low clouds and fog will be confined to coastal areas, mostly north of Point Conception. Additional warming is possible next week as high pressure builds in from the southeast. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...22/941 AM. ***UPDATE*** Expecting a very similar day today compared to yesterday with highs 4-8 degrees above normal but not quite to heat advisory levels. Temperatures this morning are actually running 1-3 degrees cooler than yesterday at the same time, but by the end of the day expecting highs to be within a couple degrees of yesterday. Models continue to show little change in this pattern through at least Monday. After that most of the ensembles show increasing heat along with weakening onshore flow which cloud push some areas into heat advisories and possibly warnings in some areas. ***From Previous Discussion*** Few changes are expected through the weekend, with warm conditions persisting. The combination of hot daytime temperatures, warm overnight lows and some monsoonal moisture at mid to upper levels will continue to feel uncomfortably warm. Breezy winds are expected at times, with northerly Sundowner winds along the Santa Barbara Southwest coast and foothills, and gusty onshore winds over interior sections. Not much change in the upper level pattern for Today, with 500 mb heights peaking around 593 to 594 dam. However, will see these heights fall a few dam for Sunday and Monday. Expecting fairly similar highs as yesterday for today, with limited marine layer clouds and similar strength in onshore flow. While the hottest areas are not quite widespread enough to warrant a Heat Advisory, some interior valley and mountain locations (Woodland Hills, for example) will reach around 10 degrees above normal. Caution is still advised for those working or recreating outdoors during the daytime. Will likely see the typical afternoon to evening breezy onshore (Southwest) winds with gusts around 20 to 30 mph over the far interior today, including Antelope Valley. These winds should trend weaker over the next few days. Northerly winds will again develop during the evening hours for the Santa Barbara southwest coast with sub-advisory level winds expected through Sunday evening, possibly reaching advisory levels Monday evening. As for the monsoonal moisture flowing over the area from the southeast, current high resolution guidance does not suggest any significant shower activity over the area for the next dew days. However, cannot rule out a stray shower or two in favorable interior locations. .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...22/533 AM. High pressure is expected to build back into California, with warming Tuesday while at the same time pressure gradients from the north and east weaken. With high temperatures already on the verge of advisories and warnings through early next week, the next burst of heat Tuesday and beyond has at least a 40-60% chance pushing that over the edge to at least heat advisory levels and possibly into warning level, particularly inland areas. Ensemble guidance is trending towards at least 3 days of hot conditions, with some potential for additional mid-level moisture Tuesday. How widespread the heat hazards are will be largely be determined by the pressure gradients. If the gradients trend towards the 75th percentile or higher, which roughly would be around -3mb LAX- DAG and -4mb LAX- BFL, temperatures would on the higher side with numerous excessive heat warnings likely. If gradients have less of an offshore component per the latest GFS then temperatures will still be hot but at least a few degrees cooler. The latter scenario being the most likely outcome. Still not seeing any big subtropical push next week, though there is minor peak in PW's on Tuesday and early Wednesday at around 1.2". However, warm ocean temperatures will likely continue to limit cooling overnight. && .AVIATION...22/1234Z. At 0341Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 700 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 2000 feet with a temperature of 30 C. High confidence in 12Z TAFs with VFR for sites: KPRB, KSBA, KVNY, KBUR, KPMD, KWJF. Low to moderate confidence in the coastal TAFs. Most likely, sites that have not seen cigs yet will remain VFR for the rest of the morning, but cannot rule out brief cigs at KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, and KLAX. KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 12Z TAF. There is a 20% chance of IFR conds between 13Z to 16Z. If CIGs occur, the timing could be off by 2 hours. No significant east wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF. && .MARINE...22/826 AM. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions likely continuing over the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island through tonight, lowering to moderate risk for Sunday and Monday. There is a moderate risk for the nearshore Central Coast waters each afternoon and evening through tonight, lowering for Sunday and Monday. Localized SCA level wind gusts are also possible for portions of the Santa Barbara Channel this afternoon and evening, especially near the Channel Islands. Elsewhere, the risk for SCA is low, with seasonal winds likely. Chances for SCA conditions will likely increase again including some nearshore waters by Wednesday. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 AM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT Sunday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Monday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Phillips/Ciliberti AVIATION...Phillips MARINE...LP/RK/Sirard SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  885 FXUS63 KMKX 221646 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1146 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers & thundershowers over east-central and southeast Wisconsin ~1-7 PM this afternoon. A few thundershowers could produce gusty winds to 40 MPH. - Cool, fall-like nights tonight & Sunday night. - Dry and pleasant conditions into the beginning of next week. Storm chances return Tuesday evening into Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1145 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 This afternoon through Sunday night: Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: Fair weather cumulus are developing late this morning as surface heating commences within modest low level moisture still in place. While subtle, 11 AM surface observations identify a weak surface boundary extending from near Green Bay west toward the Black River Falls vicinity. Modest north-south moisture differences, in addition to slight cyclonic surface convergence, have been noted across the boundary through the late morning hours. Anticipate that this surface front will continue to sag south into east-central and southeast Wisconsin this afternoon, with its affiliated surface convergence providing just enough lift for scattered showers and thundershowers mainly along/east of a Ripon- Lake Mills-Lake Geneva line. Not expecting much in the way of hazards in any activity, although the strongest thundershowers could produce a few cloud to ground lightning strikes and wind gusts to 40 MPH. Keep an eye on the sky if planning to be outdoors across the east this afternoon. Currently centered along the North Dakota- Manitoba border, high pressure will gradually shift into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight, ultimately moving overhead on Sunday night. The high's approach & arrival will maintain a Canadian air mass across southern Wisconsin tonight through Sunday night, leading to fall-like conditions during the overnight periods. This Afternoon: Monitoring for a gradual increase in shower/thundershower coverage across the east as a weak surface boundary works in from the north. Expect that most activity will generate as the aforementioned boundary impinges upon the more focused area of cumulus clouds currently evident from Ripon- Sheboygan south to Burlington-Milwaukee. Have thus continued 20-40% precip probabilities along & east of a Ripon-Lake Mills-Lake Geneva line in the mid-day update. Severe weather threat is low in any development given modest instability & weaker along-boundary convergence, though steep low level lapse rates & deeply mixed boundary layers could support isolated wind gusts to 40 MPH in any collapsing precip cores. A few cloud to ground lightning strikes are possible as well. Keep an eye on the radar if planning to be outdoors across the east this afternoon. Quigley && .LONG TERM... Issued 1145 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Monday through Saturday: Synopsis: High pressure will continue across the state on Monday, leading to plentiful sunshine & continued dry conditions with low humidity. The high will shift east of the region on Tuesday, with southerly return flow allowing for gradual moisture returns and slight increases in humidity. The next upper disturbance and surface front will drift into the western Great Lakes from the Canadian Prairies Tuesday evening through Wednesday, bringing the next chances for showers and thunderstorms to southern Wisconsin. Disagreement amongst global guidance regarding the timing of the forcing mechanisms casts some uncertainty over how many rounds of storm development will occur, in addition to storm intensity. Trends will be monitored over coming forecasts. A new area of high pressure will move into the western Great Lakes during the second half of the week, leading to pleasant and mostly dry weather conditions Thursday into Friday. The high will shift east by Saturday. Tuesday Evening through Wednesday: The best thunderstorm chances of the long term period enter the forecast ahead of an upper wave and cold front. Current blended & ensemble guidance generally points to a warm sector spreading into the area Tuesday evening/night, with the trailing cold front then pushing through at some point during the day Wednesday. Precip forecasts from the NBM thus like the idea of an initial batch of storm development within the warm advection regime Tuesday evening/night, followed by additional development along the passing cold front at some point on Wednesday. Available deterministic guidance, however, muddies this picture, with a number of different scenarios being depicted regarding the evolution of both the surface pattern & flow aloft. Have thus trended the precip forecast toward the blended/ensemble scenario at this point, with the understanding that some changes are likely to occur into early next week given the noted range of solutions in the deterministic suite. Aforementioned questions regarding the extent and quality of the warm sector make the potential for any strong/severe storms unclear in this forecast, though prevailing deep layer shear would be sufficient for at least some storm organization in the event timing & spacing allowed for enough destabilization. Will be monitoring trends and providing more details as this portion of the period draws closer. Quigley && .AVIATION... Issued 1145 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR flight categories prevail through the period at most southern Wisconsin terminals. Fair weather cumulus will continue to develop into the afternoon hours, with bases between FL040 and FL060 anticipated. Currently extending from near Green Bay toward central Wisconsin, a weak surface front/wind shift will work through southern Wisconsin through the afternoon, bringing chances for scattered SHRA and TSRA to east-central and southeastern locations. SHRA/TSRA could bring brief VIS & categorical reductions, with improvements to VFR quickly occurring after precip passage. Have accounted for this anticipated development at lakeshore fields in the 18Z forecast. Elected to insert TEMPO SHRA groups at SBM, with PROB30 groups further south at MKE and ENW given higher relative confidence in the development of precip in the vicinity. Have withheld any mentions of CB given lower confidence in thunder. Will be monitoring radar trends into the afternoon & amending forecasts as necessary. Fair weather cumulus and eastern precip chances will wane during the early evening hours, giving way to mostly clear skies. Quigley && .MARINE... Issued 1145 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 1010 mb low pressure is centered over the southern Hudson Bay this morning, resulting in generally northeast winds across the open waters of Lake Michigan. These winds will continue into this evening as a weak cold front moves across the lake and 1023 mb high pressure builds into the northern Great Plains. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible along the passing front this afternoon & evening. Severe weather potential is low in this activity, though an isolated stronger storm with gusty winds or a waterspout can't be entirely ruled out. Will be watching radar trends for any potential marine weather statements or special marine warnings through this evening. Northwest winds will continue through the day Sunday, ultimately weakening by Sunday night as the aforementioned area of high pressure approaches Lake Michigan. Light and variable winds will continue Monday with high pressure lingering in the vicinity. The high will shift east into Ontario by Tuesday, resulting in a south-southwest wind shift across the waters. 1005 mb low pressure will approach from the northern Great Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday, reinforcing the south- southwesterly wind pattern. The low will cross Lake Michigan during the second half of the day Wednesday, bringing a northwest wind shift. Gales are not expected as this occurs. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the approaching/passing surface low Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon. It remains too early to tell if any of these storms could be severe, with trends being monitored into the beginning of next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in nearshore zones this afternoon as a weak cold front moves south across Lake Michigan. An isolated stronger storm with gusty winds or an isolated waterspout can't be entirely ruled out. Increasing southerly winds and wave heights may lead to a brief period of Small Craft Advisory conditions Tuesday afternoon & evening, particularly to the north of Milwaukee. Will be monitoring trends & evaluating the need for any headlines through the beginning of next week. The next thunderstorm chances arrive Tuesday evening through Wednesday, with severe weather potential uncertain at this time. Quigley && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  890 FXUS66 KOTX 221646 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 946 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory has been extended for Northeastern WA and North Idaho for Saturday. - Saturday will bring critical fire weather conditions across the Inland Northwest due to a combination of isolated to scattered thunderstorms producing gusty outflow winds, along with breezy winds and low relative humidity. - Patchy blowing dust is possible Saturday in the Western Columbia Basin. && .SYNOPSIS... A weather system passing through on Saturday will bring critical fire weather conditions across the Inland Northwest. This is due to a combination of isolated to scattered thunderstorms producing gusty outflow winds, along with breezy winds and low relative humidity. Sunday will remain breezy and dry, but cooler. Temperatures will warm again at the start of next week with breezy conditions returning by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today: A deep low begins its migration into the region. Midlevel moisture is streaming inland ahead of the low bringing heavy mid and high level clouds along with sprinkles and light showers. There has been a few lightning strikes near Lewiston this morning where there are a few midlevel circulations noted within the midlevels. Would not rule out a few strikes with additional activity in Central WA either due to subtle circulations showing up in the water vapor. The air mass is very warm and dry near the surface. As such, any rain falling is largely evaporating but this is leading to erratic wind gusts upwards of 15 to 20 mph. Several of the high resolution models are indicating that a few cells that can drive rain to the surface could result in gusts as high as 40 mph. This band of moisture and shower activity will slowly lift south to north and clear across the International border early Saturday morning and the upper low will begin to migrate to the WA Coast, into the North Cascades overnight and across NE WA and N ID Sunday morning. As the low and associated 500mb cold pool migrates inland, lapse rates will continue to steepen with lower levels remaining in the 90s. Areas of NE WA and N ID will only cool 3-4 degrees from Friday and Heat Advisories have been extended. One of the main concerns for Saturday will be the potential for thunderstorms developing. Initially, storms are expected to fire over the North Cascades where the upper level cooling will arrive closer to midday but as impulses rotate around the low and eject inland the potential for cells to develop over Idaho, Eastern and northern WA will increase. This looks to be closer to late afternoon into the evening hours. Any cells through the day, rain or thunderstorms that produce precipitation shafts will likely result in gusty outflow winds of 25 to 50 mph given the high based nature of this convection, extremely dry subcloud layers, and DCAPES of 500-1500 J/kg. In the most intense outflows, winds could gust closer to 60 mph. This will be closely monitored through the day as will lightning strikes and fire starts. Winds will be the other major concern through the day. Away from outflow boundaries, strong synoptic driven winds will develop across a majority of the region, especially the Western Columbia Basin and through the Cascade Gaps. Winds will initially strengthen from the south then shift to the southwest and west late in the day into the evening as cooler air floods inland. Any ongoing or new fires will stand a good chance to be fanned by gusty winds of 25-35 mph. Given our fuel dryness levels, this is very concerning. Red Flag Warnings are in place across the region to account for the synoptic winds, outflow winds, and lightning starts. Generally speaking, the Cascades, Northern Mountains, and Idaho Panhandle are in fire weather highlights for the lightning starts and gusty outflow winds though the Cascades will experience a period of strong synoptic winds Saturday evening as the cooler air floods into the region. This will draw higher humidity levels but it will take several hours for the fuels to react. We expect very little lightning in the Western and Southern Columbia Basin so this will mainly be a wind and low humidity issue. For the eastern Basin, the combination of periods of gusty winds and isolated thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening hour makes this a dual threat for fire weather. We will also need to watch for blowing dust on Saturday around Moses Lake, Ritzville, and Wilbur with a lower threat for Omak than previously thought. The gusty winds could also lead to blowing ash near any fire scars. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue well into the evening and overnight hours while winds remain elevated region-wide. The main threat for thunderstorms on Sunday will be in the morning with the system departing to the east and breezy winds becoming the most impactful weather through the day while temperatures cool back into the 80s. Monday through Friday: Ensembles continue to advertise a progressive weather pattern next week. High pressure moves in Monday and Tuesday promoting a warming and drying trend. This is quickly interrupted by another shortwave Wednesday. The exact depth and track of this through the NW comes with some uncertainty but pattern recognition would suggest another bout of windy conditions and possibly some thunderstorms. The pattern repeats itself again Thursday and Friday with the next system Friday into Saturday. We are not seeing a lot of signs for appreciable rainfall with these systems indicating fire weather concerns will remain elevated or higher as we navigate the end of August. /sb && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: A midlevel front lifting to the northeast will usher elevated showers and embedded thunderstorms through the forecast area this morning. Brief rain and dry subcloud layers support erratic winds near 25 mph with this activity. This will lift out of KEAT-KMWH by 20z and KGEG-KPUW 20-23z. As this activity departs, additional instability and an incoming system will renew chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the late afternoon and well into the overnight hours. A few cells could be strong with wind gusts in excess of 50 mph. Greatest risk will be over the northern mountains, Idaho Panhandle, and into the far eastern reaches of WA. This includes KLWS, KPUW, KGEG, KSFF, and KCOE. The incoming system will bring gusty winds to much of Central WA with winds shifting from southeast to southwest and west in the evening. Local gusts near 30kts possible around KEAT. Winds will remain elevated overnight into Sunday morning as the system tracks inland. Smoke from the Cascade fires will continue to impact KEAT at times. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low confidence for TS at terminals but moderate confidence for outflow winds to impact most terminals with speeds of at least 20-30 mph. SB ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 95 59 81 54 86 56 / 10 20 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 95 60 80 53 86 56 / 10 40 10 0 0 0 Pullman 90 51 77 45 85 50 / 10 30 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 97 62 86 58 91 62 / 20 30 0 0 0 0 Colville 94 51 80 44 86 47 / 30 20 20 0 0 0 Sandpoint 93 54 77 47 82 50 / 20 40 10 0 0 0 Kellogg 93 54 76 52 83 54 / 20 40 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 94 55 85 53 88 56 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 93 63 83 61 87 65 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 94 56 84 55 88 58 / 30 20 10 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for Northeast Mountains-Spokane Area. Red Flag Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT Sunday for Selkirk Mountains of Northeast Washington (Zone 700). Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM PDT this evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin - Palouse -Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701)-Lower Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). Air Quality Alert until 2 PM PDT Monday for Central Chelan County-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM PDT Sunday for East Portion of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-East Washington North Cascades (Zone 698)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)- Okanogan Highlands and Kettle Mountains (Zone 699)- Okanogan Valley (Zone 703). ID...Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d'Alene Area-Idaho Palouse- Lewiston Area-Northern Panhandle. Red Flag Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT Sunday for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101). && $$  949 FXUS63 KDTX 221648 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1248 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this morning become more widespread this afternoon. - There is a Marginal/Isolated risk of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. - Breezy and cooler conditions arrive Sunday with scattered showers through Sunday night. - A stray shower in the morning, otherwise dry Monday with slightly below normal temperatures. && .AVIATION... Ongoing strengthening of large scale forcing along an approaching cold front will support additional shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon. Despite some stabilization from early morning convection, diurnal heating across western Lower Mi is allowing instability to build to the west. This instability axis is forecast to track across Se Mi this afternoon along the surface cold front, igniting additional convection. Thunderstorm chances will decrease between 21Z and 22Z with the passage of the cold front. There continues to be some indications that low clouds will develop overnight/early Sunday morning within the post frontal cold air advection. Low level mixing may be a limiting factor to coverage and duration. D21/DTW Convection...Additional clusters of showers/thunderstorms is still forecast this afternoon, mainly between 18Z and 22Z. There is a chance for some linear organization to the storms across the airspace. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Moderate in thunderstorms this afternoon. * Moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet today and Sunday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1005 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 UPDATE... Showers and storms this morning are occurring along and ahead of an elongated axis of PV noted in water vapor imagery, passing overhead just ahead of the main area of height falls associated with the larger scale trough digging across Wisconsin into Lake Michigan. This forcing will persist through early afternoon with surface wind obs indicating much of the elevated convection has undergone a transition to surface-based. The main threats will be sub-severe gusty winds in the strongest cores, lightning, and heavy downpours. This activity has preferentially developed along a sfc-900mb pseudo warm front and outflow feature along the M-59 corridor, leading to training storms and 2 to 3" amounts already in spots per MRMS. Localized convergence along this axis will continue to work eastward the rest of the morning, suggesting the threat for localized heavy rain and potential for urban flooding will persist between the I-96 and M-59 corridors through early afternoon. The DTX sounding highlighted modest lapse rates of 6.5 C/km in the 500-700mb layer fueling MUCAPE of nearly 1300 J/kg, with EBWD of around 30 kt. This is forecast to remain relatively steady today, with daytime heating eroding the remnant nocturnal stable layer. The surface cold front is evident in upstream radar imagery from Gaylord down to Grand Rapids. This will pass overhead this afternoon, driving the next flare-up in convection. No changes to the previous forecast for this period with widespread coverage of showers and storms likely, and a threat for strong to severe wind gusts in the strongest storms. Will closely monitor areas that receive heavy rainfall this morning, as these areas will be more susceptible to a flooding threat with additional rainfall. PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 353 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 DISCUSSION... An active period of showers and thunderstorms continues in a couple of phases as Straits low pressure pulls a cold front through Lower Mi today. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms that are ongoing leading up to sunrise are within the low to mid level moisture axis ahead of the cold front. This is where model soundings indicate a deep layer of elevated instability, but with minimal CAPE density shown in both the soundings and implied by plan view depictions of 850 mb LI around -2 C and sub 7 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rate. This elevated convection merges with scattered hybrid surface based activity of similar intensity during the morning within and between a prefrontal surface trough and the inbound cold front. The early day activity adds some doubt about verification of model peak instability as the cold front sweeps through SE Mi this afternoon. However, HREF and REFS members all handle the ongoing activity reasonably well and still suggest a respectable recovery in time for the front to support a storm flare-up while overhead and before it exits into Ontario toward early evening. There is otherwise no big change in the CAPE/shear environment as HREF mean surface based CAPE holds below 1500 J/kg with bulk shear around 25 knots, good enough for multicell clusters capable of peak gusts approaching severe intensity as the primary hazard in the strongest storms. The Marginal Risk remains in place to highlight this potential in SE Mi with a Slight Risk now just east of the border until the front exits early this evening. Scattered showers trail the front, mainly during the evening, as the 500 mb trough digs toward the eastern Great Lakes, but also as moderate cold advection gains traction overnight. Increasing NW flow occurs across Lower Mi around the west flank of surface low pressure deepening on the Ontario/Quebec border as the 500 mb trough deepens and closes off early Sunday. Model agreement maintains the trend on solutions offering a larger mid level circulation closing off closer to Lower Mi during the day. There is also a well-defined reinforcing vorticity maximum holding consistency in model solutions as it digs in from the NW and moves overhead during the afternoon. Guidance probabilities for rain appear underdone in this environment as scattered to numerous coverage is favored, especially Sunday afternoon and evening with a boost from daytime instability. The low level thermal trough is firmly in place over the western Great Lakes by Monday morning with low temperatures in the upper 40s still within reach outside of the larger metro areas. Deterministic and ensemble model guidance continue to project single digit 850 mb temperatures to start the day which rebound quickly as the mid/upper level low shifts eastward. A stray shower also remains in play, especially toward the Thumb region, during the morning until confluent NW flow develops to help ensure dry weather for the afternoon and Monday night. Slightly below normal highs in the upper 70s are reachable as the thermal trough shifts eastward. Weak surface high pressure is supported by a mid/upper level short wave ridge Monday night and Tuesday. Dry weather and a few degrees of warming occur through mid week within the slowly progressive large scale flow. High temperatures return to the lower 80s during mid week while the next chance of rain is carried in by the current Pac NW system. Extended range global models project it arrives in the Great Lakes by Wednesday. MARINE... A cold front will progress across the Great Lakes while expanding shower and thunderstorm chances today. Any stronger storm development will be capable of producing wind gusts aoa 34 knots and/or small hail. Winds veer to the northwest in the wake of the passing front and will increase intensity and remain elevated through Sunday as cooler air is ushered in. Wind gusts will likely range around 25 to 30 knots through this weekend. The switch in wind direction from the northwest will quickly build wave heights in and around the Thumb and Small Craft Advisories are in effect beginning tonight. High pressure builds back in Monday and Tuesday which will bring lighter winds to the area. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Monday for LHZ421-441. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Monday for LHZ422. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Monday for LHZ442-443. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....SC UPDATE.......TF DISCUSSION...BT MARINE.......AM You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  960 FXUS63 KEAX 221649 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1149 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms possible this morning across eastern KS and far western Missouri. - Cooler temperatures expected this weekend. - 30 to 40% chance for showers/storms Sunday evening into Sunday night. - Temperatures should gradually warm through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Northwesterly flow aloft remains entrenched over the region between high amplitude ridging across the Rockies and western CONUS and troughing across the Great Lakes and into Appalachia. At the surface, a very weak boundary is analyzed near the northern edge of the Ozarks, with high pressure yielding mostly clear skies with light and variable winds. Convection is ongoing this morning across portions of central Nebraska, and this will slowly drift to the southeast with the mean cloud layer flow, likely weakening as it moves into eastern and northeastern Kansas. It is possible that this convection (albeit in a relatively weak form) could make its way into our CWA in far eastern KS toward the MO border by around 9 AM or so, moving off to the south (into the SGF CWA) by late morning/early afternoon, with clouds clearing behind it. With the CWA positioned between ridging to the west and troughing to the east northeast, a decent high temperature gradient is expected this afternoon, with highs across NE Missouri forecast to reach the lower 80s, with highs in the upper 80s south and southwest of the KC metro (mid 80s likely in the KC metro). On Sunday morning, an H5 50+ knot jet is progged to dig from NE Minnesota into southern Illinois on the western side of the trough across the NE CONUS. Meanwhile, a mid level vort max is projected to translate across NE/KS and into Missouri. This will help send a subtle reinforcing shot of marginally cooler and drier air, along with mid to high level cloud cover, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s (down from the mid to upper 80s) and dewpoints lowering a couple degrees. It will also bring a chance (20 to 30%) for some showers/storms to western portions of the CWA. As we head into early next week, the center of the H5 high that is currently near the Four Corners area migrates slightly to the southeast over SE New Mexico and into west Texas, with northwesterly flow aloft remaining in place over the CWA as troughing remains over the NE CONUS. This will result in gradually warming temperatures through the week and occasional low end (20 to 30%) chances for showers/storms as disturbances and vort maxes translate through the northwesterly flow on the northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1146 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Could be some few to scattered cumulus across central Missouri this afternoon, which should rapidly discipate towards sunset. Potential for patchy fog tonight in the river vallies, so added mention of fog at KSTJ. Any fog should rapidly burn off towards 14Z Sunday. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Williams AVIATION...BT  991 FXUS61 KPBZ 221649 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1249 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes have been made to the forecast overall. There is still decent confidence in the timing and scope of thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening. Still, there risk for heavy rain/flooding has increased slightly, mainly north of I-80. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon may lead to scattered instances of damaging wind gusts, with hail being a secondary threat. 2) A marginal risk for damaging wind Sunday is tied to afternoon and evening convection near the I-80 corridor. 3) Outside of lingering showers Monday near Lake Erie, dry weather favored through mid next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Plenty of sunshine across the Upper Ohio Valley is allowing destabilization to take place ahead of a MCV tracking across southern Ohio. This will provide the support for lift along with an advancing prefrontal trough. By 18Z, MLCAPE increases into the 1000-1500 J/kg range at least according to RAP/REFS. This buoyancy will allow convection to increase in coverage during the early to middle afternoon hours. CAMs continue to support these ideas, with the stronger convection moving east of the region by 02Z-03Z, with a few lingering showers crossing with the main surface cold front shortly thereafter. The main severe risk remains damaging gusts. DCAPE is still pegged to remain in the 600-800 J/kg range and thus be marginally favorable for downbursts, and the best 0-6km/effective shear remains further down the Ohio Valley. So, we are likely not looking at a higher-end threat. Still, with initial discrete storms likely to conglomerate over time in multicell clusters/short lines, enough cold pool consolidation may occur to create some scattered instances of 55-65 MPH wind gusts given the healthy MLCAPE expectations. Large hail would be a secondary threat given the relatively weak shear and mid- level lapse rates, but may be possible in the strongest storms. Downpours/locally heavy rainfall totals remain possible as well, but the HREF suggests the greatest QPF potential lies just to our north and west closer to Lake Erie, and much of the I-80 corridor has higher flash flood guidance values than to the south. Precipitable water values are not excessively high (75-85th percentile) as well. Will continue to monitor, but will hold off on a Flood Watch for now. KEY MESSAGE 2... Mid-level troughing and cold advection lingers over the region on Sunday, which may support isolated/scattered shower and thunderstorms development during the peak heating hours of Sunday, mainly north of I-70. Although decreasing overall moisture depth should keep a cap on coverage, one or two strong to severe storms may be possible given the cooling temperatures aloft, if around 1000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE can develop as hi-res models suggest. KEY MESSAGE 3... Showers may linger north of I-80 and along the ridges (a cool- season type of setup) into Monday morning with ongoing cool northwest flow over a warm Lake Erie. Otherwise, high pressure and height rises aloft point to a prolonged (relatively speaking, in relation to the previous month) dry period to start next week. High temperature does start below seasonal averages on Monday before rising back near average by mid week. Long range ensembles currently favor Thursday as the next day with showers/thunderstorms as the next upper trough crosses. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High confidence forecast showers and storms impacting airports. The best time window appears 21Z-01Z. It will be a few hours earlier for ZZV. VFR prevails until widespread showers and thunderstorms developthis afternoon and evening ahead of an advancing pre- frontal trough (1st) and cold front (2nd) combo. The strong storms could drop visibilities to IFR levels while also posing a risk for creating wind gusts to at least 30kts, potentially higher. Based on the latest high resolution models, the time window is 18-22Z in Ohio, 21-01Z PA and WV save for DUJ where it is until 2Z. Lingering shower and low probability thunderstorms eventually clear east by 06z, but cool advection plus residual moisture favors MVFR/IFR stratus development thereafter. Current probs have lowered to a 20-30% of IFR CIGS over PA and WV. The highest confidence now is our historically more frequent terminals of FKL and DUJ. Have enough confidence to add IFR CIGS at DUJ over night, but no where else, so kept them at MVFR. The eastern terminals of LBE, MGW, and DUJ may keep stratocu most of the morning, which will be teetering on MVFR/VFR threshold, otherwise CAVU. Any shower or storm Sunday will hold off until after 18Z. The highest prob of a shower or storm will be along and north of I80 in PA Sunday afternoon. Outlook... Precipitation chances linger in northwest PA into Monday before high pressure provides areawide VFR dry weather by Tuesday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CL AVIATION...McMullen/Frazier  039 FXUS63 KIND 221651 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1251 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated convection possible again late today - Cooler and less humid weather expected Sunday through Tuesday with highs mainly in the 70s to low 80s. - Areas of late night/early morning fog will occur Saturday and Sunday nights. - Dry weather expected Monday and Tuesday with increasing chances for rain and storms mid-late next week. && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 907 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Surface analysis early this morning shows broad low pressure in place over MI. A weak trough within this flow stretched across Central Indiana, and westerly flow was developing in the wake of the trough within the Wabash valley. Isolated showers ahead of the trough over eastern Central Indian continued to weaken and depart to the east. Aloft, strong ridging was in place over the Rockies, resulting in lee side subsidence spilling across the northern plains and into the Ohio Valley on NW flow. Dew points across Central Indiana were mainly in the mid 60s and skies were clear in the wake of the trough as subsidence was seen building across western Indiana. This afternoon, subsidence, as found across Illinois and western Indiana, will continue to build across our area. Forecast soundings show strong drying within the mid and upper levels. However as convective temps in the upper 70s are reached, some SCT CU will be possible. Weak capping does appear present near 850mb with an inversion. HRRR hints an isolated TSRA could be possible should the cap be breached. Confidence is low for this. Thus expect most locations will remain mostly sunny and cooler today, with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. && .DISCUSSION (Today through Friday)... Issued at 302 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Today through Sunday... Expect multiple embedded waves within upper troughing to move through the region this weekend while northwest flow persists. Current KIND radar imagery depicts scatters showers and a few storms pushing into central Indiana early this morning. This convection is associated with an MCS which has been gradually weakening through the overnight as it is outpacing the more unstable environment back across IL. Additional showers and a few storms are possible through the morning with the disturbance pushing through, but weak forcing will limit coverage. Look for winds to turn northwesterly by mid-morning once a cold front passes. Drier air filtering in should promote mostly dry conditions later today into tonight. However, a subtle backdoor front and marginal low-level moisture could support a few showers or a stray storm, mainly across far northwestern counties. Light winds combined with mostly clear skies Saturday night supports the potential for patchy fog. Any fog that develops will quickly mix out Sunday morning. Another subtle impulse could promote a few light showers over far NE counties Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, look for pleasant weather with cooler weather from persistent northwest flow. Highs on Saturday are expected to range from the upper 70s to low 80s whiles highs on Sunday generally range from the mid 70s to low 80s. Sunday night through Tuesday... Broad area of surface high pressure will push SE into the Ohio Valley through the period, providing for much drier conditions, with dewpts falling into the 50s. As a result most areas will see low temperatures in the 50s Sunday night. Light winds and mostly clear skies will lead to another night with areas of fog Sunday night. A weak system in the NW flow aloft is expected to move across the MO/mid-MS valleys Monday into Tuesday. At present the only expected effect from this system will be increasing mid-high clouds.This should limit fog chances Monday night and keep high temperatures in the 70s most areas Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday through Friday... Another upper wave/surface cold front will move through during the period. Confidence in timing is very low considering the system is currently off the west coast, so for now will only have some low PoPs. Seasonable temperatures are expected with increasing humidity with increasing SW flow in the low levels. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 1251 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Impacts: - A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out through 23Z - Low chance for brief fog at outlying sites overnight. Discussion: VFR conditions are expected the Taf Period as high pressure over the northern high plains builds across Central Indiana through the Taf period. ACARS soundings show a limited CAP in place and CU is developing. With plenty of mid level drying building across the area, storm development is not expected, but a stray shower/storm cannot be ruled out. Confidence remains too low for a mention. Fog is possible at the outlying sites late tonight, due to clear skies and low dew point depressions. After any morning fog, VFR will continue as we remain under the influence of high pressure. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Puma AVIATION...Puma DISCUSSION...Crosbie/Melo  001 FXUS63 KSGF 221650 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1150 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal risk for severe storms over southern portions of the area this afternoon and evening. Isolated 1 inch hail and 60 mph winds are the greatest threats. - Potential for locally heavy rainfall and flooding Sunday night into early Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 145 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Thunderstorm chances and potential risks today: Still quite a bit of model variability with respect to convection today, including coverage, probabilities, and instability. This lowers confidence and increases potential for noteworthy changes to the forecast today. Overall expecting shortwave energy (currently noted with convection over northern Nebraska) to move into the later this afternoon and evening. Given timing of arrival around peak heating, there is concern for enough instability for severe weather. However, model spread is pretty high with how the instability picture looks this afternoon. Looking at HREF SBCAPE probabilities of > 2,000 J/kg, values fall rapidly to 20-30% by mid to late afternoon as drier air moves in ahead of the shortwave. This dry air also seems to be diminishing convection as it moves toward the area. More confidence exists in seeing 25-30 kts of deep layer shear. Overall think the NBM 20-40% PoPs with a marginal SPC severe risk seems reasonable given the uncertainty. Looking at an isolated 1 inch hail and 60 mph wind threat. Otherwise look for highs to range from the mid 80s NE to the mid 90s (heat index values up to around 100) SW. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 145 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Sunday: Models hint at some remnant precip late tonight into Sunday morning, but the forecast is mostly dry at this time. Temperatures and heat index values Sunday look similar to today. Late Sunday into early Monday heavy rainfall and flooding threat: A strong upper ridge to the W will lead to relatively strong upper level flow from the NW while models now generally agree on a surface low over Oklahoma and 850mb trough from the northern plains to over the surface low. This surface low leads to a strong pressure gradient in the low levels, and a resulting SE LLJ. At the same time, an 850mb front will be stalled over the region (currently looking like the southwestern CWA, but limited confidence in location), with elevated instability above the front. This should result in convection in vicinity of the front. The strong S-SE low level flow counters the upper level flow to result in slow storm motions that are near parallel to the 850mb front, so also looking at potential for training storms. Moisture transport from the Gulf of America will be strong with the low level flow, resulting in PWAT values over 2 inches, as shown by multiple models, which is 150-175% of normal. These factors may lead to locally heavy rainfall and flooding, but many factors need to come together for this. Uncertainty does exist, including in the unusual situation of a surface low sitting over Oklahoma in late August, the placement of the 850mb front, the strength of the low level jet, and instability. Currently, the NBM shows 50-60% PoPs over the southwestern CWA and 30-50% elsewhere. Through the rest of next week, we will see some low end chances for showers and storms as we generally remain under NW flow aloft. Predictability will generally be low for any precip chances. The pattern also keeps a temperature gradient across the area, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s NE to the mid to upper 90s (along with heat index values in the upper 90s to mid 100s) SW. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1147 AM CDT Sat Aug 222026 VFR conditions expected through much of the period. Some showers and storms are currently visible on Radar pushing southeast, with a ~30% chance of affecting the terminals from the beginning of the period until approximately 00Z. Any stronger storm could temporarily lower ceilings and visibilities, however this is expected to be short-lived. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Titus LONG TERM...Titus AVIATION...Melto  077 FXUS64 KHUN 221653 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1153 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 909 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - A few thunderstorms may impact the western portion of north AL late this afternoon/early this evening. Brief strong wind gusts could accompany the most intense cells. - There are low to medium chances of thunderstorms for much of next week. However, timing and impact confidence remains low at this time. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 909 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Areas of early morning fog have slowly begun to see improvements with the sun rise. Under mostly clear skies highs are forecast to rise to seasonal norms, reaching to low 90s by this afternoon. Despite the nice late summer day that develops through the afternoon, a marginal risk for strong to severe storms will exist this evening. On a larger scale, we remain in a NW flow aloft pattern allowing for shortwaves to easily ripple through the TN Valley. This evening, an approaching shortwave paired with a weak cold front will provide enough lift to initiate storms likely off to our NW by mid afternoon. CAMs are in okay agreement with most showing at least NW AL being clipped by some convection this evening. Some of the more bullish solutions do bring strong to severe storms through the whole area, but we have low confidence in seeing widespread storms at this time. Current thinking is storms will initiate to our NW and drift through NW AL from around 5 PM to 10 PM. As storms move through, instability will be actively decreasing as we lose the best daytime heating. The storms look to pass prior to the cold front and thus be displaced both spatial and temporally from slightly higher shear along the front. This will limit the overall severe threat with damaging winds being the primary concern. The front looks to move through during the night time hours with slight CAA funneling in through dawn. This will be immediately felt as lows tomorrow morning drop into the mid to high 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 909 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The short term forecast will have two features of interest. The first is slightly cooler temps with highs and lows a degree or two below seasonal norms. Highs look to largely remain below 90 degrees with lows staying below 70. The second feature of interest will be the overall synoptic pattern, which will remain in a ridging west / troughing east regime. This will keep us in NW flow and support additional shortwaves passing through the TN Valley. The first of these looks to be from Monday to Tuesday. While it's a little too soon to pull out specific details, really any passing feature could be enough to support general summertime thunderstorms each afternoon. Please check back for updates regarding any specific hazards and timing. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 751 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 In the extended forecast, we will get a break from the extreme heat conditions, however in exchange for that, we will be stuck in an unsettled pattern. We will start off with the pattern of an upper level low up in Quebec and the far NE U.S with an amplified ridge stretching from the southern Rockies up through the Northern Plains. On the back side of the ridge, a smaller upper-level low in Manitoba will try to be the driving force for a pattern change. As that smaller low slides SE into the Upper Great Lakes mid-week, the ridge will be dampened enough for it to round the ridge. This pattern will keep us in a northwesterly flow through the week. Embedded in this flow will be shortwaves that will swing through the TN Valley, keeping daily rain chances in. Right nowit looks like there is a chance for an MCS to drop through on Tuesday, then again Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Will keep an eye on trends for specific hazards and timing, but for now will stick with NBM POPs. Daytime highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows around 70 degrees. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are largely expected through the TAF period. A low chance for showers and storms exists this evening at MSL from around 23Z-02Z. Have not included anything in the TAF due to low confidence but amendments may be necessary if storms do make it this far east. Any flight restrictions should lift back to VFR by 06Z and prevail through the remainder of the period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RAD SHORT TERM....RAD LONG TERM....JMS AVIATION...RAD  215 FXUS63 KUNR 221657 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1057 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Upper ridge will dominate the weather through early next week. - Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening, especially across northeast Wyoming. - Temperatures will average about 4-8F above normal. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1053 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A couple stray showers or thunderstorms are possible overnight across the south-central South Dakota plains, sticking fairly close to the Nebraska border, with dry conditions elsewhere. Next round of thunderstorm potential still on track for late Saturday afternoon and evening across northeast Wyoming, spreading eastward into South Dakota with time later Saturday evening. A severe cell or two with damaging winds and large hail will be possible, especially west of the Black Hills, as forecast soundings and HREF guidance support 1,000 to 2,000 J/kg of SBCAPE combined with sufficient moisture and deep-layer shear as high as 40kts. Instability may tend to wane a bit east of the Black Hills, where some early-evening capping in forecast soundings also casts some uncertainty on thunderstorm evolution. Currently do carry PoPs eastward across our South Dakota zones from late evening into the overnight as everything trends east. && .DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Thursday) Issued at 1149 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Current upper-air analysis and water vapor imagery depict large- scale ridging continuing to strengthen over the southwest. Satellite imagery indicates partly cloudy skies behind the thunderstorms and showers that moved through the region this morning. Current radar scans show a few weak returns associated with showers/virga over western SD. Surface observations show temperatures mainly in the 80s, with dewpoints in the 40s across northeast WY transitioning to the low 60s across south-central SD. Winds are generally easterly across western SD and southerly across northeast WY at 10 to 17kts, gusting to 25kts. Campbell Co. in particular may see gusty northeasterly winds up to 25kts, behind a weak frontal passage, and minRH values in the upper teens this afternoon. Due to these conditions, elevated fire weather concerns will continue to persist through this afternoon for Campbell Co. There is still uncertainty around today's chances for thunderstorms across southwestern SD, both in timing and severity, with disagreement remaining among the CAMs. However, MLCAPE values of ~750-1250 J/kg, dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s in the SD plains, and 0-6km bulk wind shear values around 55kts indicate that the environment in southwestern SD could support thunderstorm development and a supercell or two. The timing of the shortwave today, the cap currently in place, and the strong vertical moisture gradient between the SD plains and the Black Hills will all play a large role in storm development this afternoon/evening and into the overnight hours. Due to these factors, there is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms southeast of Rapid City down to the SD/NE border, with the primary threats being large hail (up to 2") and damaging winds (60-70+ mph). As a result, 15 percent POPs were added to the southern Black Hills and into southwestern SD for this afternoon into the evening. Multiple disturbances riding along the ridge will keep scattered thunderstorms chances in play for Saturday and Sunday, with northeast WY favored for better coverage Saturday. As is typical for thunderstorms in August, chances for precipitation will be hit-and- miss. Cloud cover and storm placement will also drive day-to-day temperatures, though highs are expected to remain above average across most of the region through the weekend and into next week as the ridge remains in place. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday) Issued At 1054 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon hours. Breezy southeasterly winds with gusts of 20 to 25 knots will be common across the plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across NE WY after 22z, spreading eastward through Saturday evening. Transient MVFR/IFR conditions are possible with any convection along with hail and gusty, erratic winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 1149 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Elevated fire weather concerns will continue through this afternoon for Campbell Co., where gusty northeasterly winds up to 25kts will combine with minimum relative humidity values in the upper teens. Thunderstorm chances increase across northeast Wyoming late Saturday afternoon, increasing the dry lightning risk, however, relative humidity values will increase to the upper 30s to low 40s. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ UPDATE...KSmith DISCUSSION...Schultz AVIATION...MLS FIRE WEATHER...Schultz  302 FXUS64 KOHX 221659 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1159 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1150 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Low chance for a thunderstorm mid afternoon through early evening, primarily east of I-65. Some storms could be strong to severe posing a threat for damaging wind gusts. - Slightly below-normal temperatures, particularly overnight, this weekend into early next week. - Low to medium rain and storm chances most days next week with seasonal temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A broad upper-level trough remains in place across the eastern CONUS today. An embedded disturbance is now advancing southeast through the Ohio Valley with an associated front now along the Ohio River making its way toward Middle Tennessee. Though it is relatively dry currently, slight moistening is expected ahead of the front as it approaches Middle Tennessee during peak afternoon heating. This will support increasing surface-based instability (2,000-3,000 J/kg) this afternoon within a nice corridor of mid- level flow (~40 kts). As a result, any storms that form and maintain this afternoon and evening will pose a threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail up to quarter size. This band of convection should mainly be limited to 3 PM to 9 PM across Middle Tennessee and greatest overall chances are for areas east of I-65. The rest of the short-term looks dry and stable as we remain in northwest flow aloft and amidst an area of drier air behind the front moving through tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Cooler overnights and mornings will persist through early next week thanks to drier air in place. Higher terrain across the Plateau are forecast to have lows in the upper 50s Monday and Tuesday mornings. Troughing will make a slow progression to the east mid to late next week. This should open the door for an increase in moisture from the west. Continued mid- to upper-level flow will persist from the northwest providing a corridor for shortwaves to move through the area. These passing disturbances support the low to medium rain and storm chances most days next week. Temperatures are generally near seasonal norms. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 IFR to MVFR fog being seen at CSV/SRB. VFR should return between 13 and 14Z. Winds will be relatively light today, but occasional gusty of 15-18 kts during the afternoon. Fog will be an issue again tonight, especially for CSV/SRB, but may be a little more widespread. May need to include other terminals with future updates. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 92 64 89 62 / 20 20 0 0 Clarksville 91 63 86 60 / 10 0 0 0 Crossville 84 60 82 58 / 20 20 0 0 Columbia 93 66 90 63 / 10 20 0 0 Cookeville 86 62 84 59 / 30 10 0 0 Jamestown 85 61 82 58 / 30 20 0 0 Lawrenceburg 91 65 88 62 / 10 20 0 0 Murfreesboro 93 65 90 62 / 20 20 0 0 Waverly 92 65 87 63 / 20 10 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sizemore LONG TERM....Sizemore AVIATION.....Unger