639 FXUS64 KSJT 221101 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 601 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Big Country, Heartland and Concho Valley areas this afternoon. - There is a low (15%-20%) chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms, mainly across the Big Country, this afternoon and evening. - Hot and mainly dry weather will persist through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 102 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The main concern today will continue to be the heat affecting the area, with highs once again expected to range from around 100 degrees in our southwestern counties to potentially near 110 degrees in our Big Country counties north of I-20. So, the Heat Advisory will continue for the same area as yesterday for the Big Country, Heartland, and most of the Concho Valley. In addition to the heat, there is a low (15%-20%) chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms for the Big Country, and areas mainly east of a Brady to Junction line. Although we aren't expecting widespread coverage or severe weather, temperature/dewpoint spreads will be large (40+ degrees Fahrenheit) which could lead to strong wind gusts over 50 mph should any storms form. Any storms that do form will end by midnight. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Next week will be hot and generally dry for our area with daily highs 8-12 degrees above normal. The strong upper level high will be over the New Mexico/Texas border Sunday-Tuesday, and then slowly migrate west toward the New Mexico/Arizona border by Thursday- Friday. The hottest days look to be Sunday through Tuesday, with the high in closer proximity and the 850mb thermal ridge the strongest. Expect highs to be 104-107 across the Concho Valley and 105-110 in the Big Country. Our southern counties will have highs mostly 100- 103 degrees. Anticipate the need for additional Heat Advisories for our northern and central counties, and some locations north of I-20 may approach Extreme Heat Warning criteria. By Thursday and Friday, expect highs to be in the upper 90s/around 100 in our southern counties, and 100-105 degrees farther north across the rest of our area. With weak northerly flow aloft around the eastern side of the aforementioned high in the midweek time frame, some of the medium range models hint at a possibility for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop along a surface trough as it moves south into our area Wednesday night and Thursday. The possibility looks remote at this time, however. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 No significant changes from the previous forecast. VFR for the most part at all sites. There is a low probability of isolated TSRA near the KABI terminal, but confidence is still too low in coverage and placement to introduce a mention at this time. Otherwise, generally south/southeast winds in the 5 to 10 knot range, with FEW to SCT mid and upper level clouds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 106 81 106 81 / 0 20 0 0 San Angelo 104 76 104 76 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 102 74 102 74 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 105 76 105 77 / 0 10 0 0 Sweetwater 106 79 107 79 / 0 20 0 0 Ozona 99 73 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 102 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Jones- McCulloch-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor- Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...20  642 FXUS64 KSJT 221101 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 601 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Big Country, Heartland and Concho Valley areas this afternoon. - There is a low (15%-20%) chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms, mainly across the Big Country, this afternoon and evening. - Hot and mainly dry weather will persist through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 102 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The main concern today will continue to be the heat affecting the area, with highs once again expected to range from around 100 degrees in our southwestern counties to potentially near 110 degrees in our Big Country counties north of I-20. So, the Heat Advisory will continue for the same area as yesterday for the Big Country, Heartland, and most of the Concho Valley. In addition to the heat, there is a low (15%-20%) chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms for the Big Country, and areas mainly east of a Brady to Junction line. Although we aren't expecting widespread coverage or severe weather, temperature/dewpoint spreads will be large (40+ degrees Fahrenheit) which could lead to strong wind gusts over 50 mph should any storms form. Any storms that do form will end by midnight. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Next week will be hot and generally dry for our area with daily highs 8-12 degrees above normal. The strong upper level high will be over the New Mexico/Texas border Sunday-Tuesday, and then slowly migrate west toward the New Mexico/Arizona border by Thursday- Friday. The hottest days look to be Sunday through Tuesday, with the high in closer proximity and the 850mb thermal ridge the strongest. Expect highs to be 104-107 across the Concho Valley and 105-110 in the Big Country. Our southern counties will have highs mostly 100- 103 degrees. Anticipate the need for additional Heat Advisories for our northern and central counties, and some locations north of I-20 may approach Extreme Heat Warning criteria. By Thursday and Friday, expect highs to be in the upper 90s/around 100 in our southern counties, and 100-105 degrees farther north across the rest of our area. With weak northerly flow aloft around the eastern side of the aforementioned high in the midweek time frame, some of the medium range models hint at a possibility for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop along a surface trough as it moves south into our area Wednesday night and Thursday. The possibility looks remote at this time, however. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 No significant changes from the previous forecast. VFR for the most part at all sites. There is a low probability of isolated TSRA near the KABI terminal, but confidence is still too low in coverage and placement to introduce a mention at this time. Otherwise, generally south/southeast winds in the 5 to 10 knot range, with FEW to SCT mid and upper level clouds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 106 81 106 81 / 0 20 0 0 San Angelo 104 76 104 76 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 102 74 102 74 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 105 76 105 77 / 0 10 0 0 Sweetwater 106 79 107 79 / 0 20 0 0 Ozona 99 73 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 102 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Jones- McCulloch-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor- Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...20SJT-811235  606 FXUS65 KPSR 221100 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 400 AM MST Sat Aug 22 2026 .UPDATE... Updated Aviation && .KEY MESSAGES... - High temperatures reach or exceed 110 degrees nearly every day through the next week and will be within a few degrees of daily records, while morning lows remain unusually warm. - Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect through Friday evening with daily major to extreme HeatRisk. - Thunderstorms will primarily favor higher terrain areas through early next week, with drier and less favorable conditions next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Extreme heat will be the primary weather hazard through the short and long term forecast. Early morning objective analysis shows a 596dm high pressure centered over CO/NM. Models show that this high will slowly progress eastward through the beginning of next week. Despite the center of the high moving away from our region, H5 heights over our region will remain in a 594-597dm range. With heights of this magnitude, the NBM continues to show afternoon highs (morning lows) of 110-116 (83-91) degrees across the lower deserts and 100-110 (70-80) degrees across the higher terrain areas. Temperatures of this magnitude are 5-8 degrees above daily normals and some locations could tie or break their daily records (see Climate section below). These temperatures will lead to widespread high-end moderate to major HeatRisk across much of the CWA and therefore the Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect. The best thunderstorm chances will exist across the higher terrain areas through the beginning of next week with only slight chances for some isolated activity across the lower deserts. Thunderstorm chances across the lower deserts for this afternoon are around 10- 20%. While some hi-res models (HRRR and RRFS) are trying to pick up on some more scattered activity across south-central AZ (including the Phoenix Metro), they are likely overdoing the coverage. Models show limited moisture today (PWATs of 1.0-1.3"), mixing ratios only around 6-7 g/kg, MUCAPE values less then 500 J/kg, and around 25-50 J/kg of CIN. The hi-res models showing scattered to widespread activity for this evening are likely picking up on some upper-level divergence and colliding outflows. While there will likely be multiple outflows moving off the higher terrain this evening not much activity (other than some isolated showers and maybe a few isolated storms) is expected even if they do collide due to all the limiting factors mentioned earlier. Strong to locally severe wind gusts and areas of blowing dust will be the primary hazard with any storm this afternoon and evening, with high DCAPE values (1800-2000 J/kg). Models are in decent agreement that there will be a slight increase in moisture on Sunday and Monday (PWATs increase to around 1.1-1.6" across the area) with the highest moisture expected on Monday. Instability will be about the same on Sunday as today, but will increase to around 1000-1500 J/kg on Monday. Additionally, mixing rations will increase to around 10 g/kg on Monday. Despite the increase in moisture, instability, and mixing ratios models show an increase in CIN (100-200 J/kg). Activity each day will depend on how the day prior plays out. But right now, Monday looks to have slightly better chances than Sunday. Either way, most of the lower deserts are expected to remain dry with the best chances (and coverage) of thunderstorms expected across the higher terrain areas to the east of the Phoenix Metro. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/... Ensemble members are in good agreement that by Tuesday drier air will start to filter back into the region as the subtropical high starts to retrograde back over our region. By the middle of the week the center of the high will be straddling the AZ/NM border and by the end of the week the center of the high will be over AZ. As the high moves overhead, PWATs will drop into a 0.8-1.2" range across our region and steering flow will be out of the S/SW. The combination of these factors will lead to poor chances for thunderstorm development across the region. The NBM shows that Tuesday and Wednesday there could be enough moisture around to support isolated thunderstorm chances for the higher terrain areas. But by the end of next week thunderstorm chances for our area shut off and will mainly be relegated to the Mogollon Rim. Unusually hot temperatures will be the main story next week. As mentioned above the subtropical high will slowly retrograde back over our region beginning on Tuesday, which will result in a gradual warming trend for our area. The high is also expected to strengthen to around 596-598dam during this time. The combination of the center settling over our region and strengthening will result in temperatures heating up to around 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Afternoon highs (morning lows) are forecasted to be in the 110-116 (85-95) degree range across the lower deserts and in the 100-110 (75-85) degree range across the higher terrain areas. The increase in temperatures will also result in an increase in HeatRisk, with widespread extreme HeatRisk forecast for the majority of the CWA by Wednesday. There remains high confidence in the heat forecast for next week. So, the Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through next Friday and will likely need to be expanded to more areas by the middle of the week and may eventually need to be extended into next weekend. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1100Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Uncertainty in TSRA/SHRA coverage and corresponding gusty outflow winds/wind shifts will be the primary forecast challenge through Sunday morning under periods of mid/high cloud decks. Confidence is good that light east winds will prevail through early/mid afternoon with a slow transition to W/SW by late afternoon. TS development over higher terrain areas may send gusty outflow winds towards the Phoenix terminals during the early evening with a S/SE direction most likely. While direct TS impacts are not likely, briefly gusty winds and decaying SHRA could affect operations mid evening. If more concentrated storms can materialize along with multiple colliding outflow boundaries, better chances for isolated TS development in lower elevations will be enhanced with stronger and more prolonged wind gusts. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major weather issues will exist through Sunday morning under mostly clear skies. Trends in winds should be similar to the past 24 hours, generally varying between SE and SW with extended periods of nearly calm conditions in between. TS activity over the Baja spine late this afternoon may send an outflow and decaying SHRA towards KIPL prior to sunset. Chances for direct TSRA impacts are too low to include in this TAF package, however gusty SW winds justify a continued mention through the early evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and seasonally dry conditions are expected nearly every day, through next week. Aside from a brief increase in moisture Sunday- Monday, minimum RH values each afternoon will be around 12-18% (15- 25% Sun-Mon). Temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees above normal through the next week, with lower desert highs eclipsing 110 degrees most afternoons. There will be slight chances for storms each afternoon through Monday, but they will mostly favor the higher terrain areas. Drier conditions, with lower storm chances are expected by the middle of next week. Outside of thunderstorm outflow winds, winds will follow the typical diurnal tendencies with some modest afternoon upslope gustiness. && .CLIMATE... Record highs: Date Phoenix Yuma El Centro ---- ------- ---- --------- Aug 22 113 in 2011 115 in 1969 117 in 1969 Aug 23 114 in 2011 115 in 2011 116 in 1969 Aug 24 115 in 2020 119 in 1985 117 in 1985 Aug 25 113 in 2011 116 in 1962 117 in 1962 Aug 26 117 in 2011 115 in 2020 115 in 1981 Aug 27 114 in 2023 120 in 1981 117 in 1981 Aug 28 117 in 2023 118 in 2023 117 in 2009 && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Friday for AZZ530>555-559- 560. CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for CAZ562-565>567- 569-570. && $$ SHORT TERM...Berislavich LONG TERM...Berislavich AVIATION...18 FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich/Benedict CLIMATE...18  692 FXUS63 KOAX 221101 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 601 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lingering low chances (20-40%) of showers and isolated thunderstorms until mid-morning Saturday, with precipitation ending leaving a pleasant day. - Shower and thunderstorm chances ramp up late Sunday into Monday (30-70%) - Periodic storm chances continue into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1105 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Hey, I did sfc analysis by hand tonight! It reveals a stalled front draped from near Clarinda, through the Omaha metro, to Albion and continuing west. Widely isolated showers continue across the area this evening, but severe weather never did materialize here despite the conditional threat earlier today. The atmosphere had the buoyancy and shear available, but due to cloud cover, initiation didn't happen in Nebraska. A few light showers lingered past sunset in far southwest Iowa along an elevated front. Expect the mostly dry conditions may be interrupted by redevelopment around 2:00 AM as a H5 shortwave pushes southeast through central Nebraska. Elevated CAPE peaks only at about 1,000 J/kg and effective shear values will be nerfed after the subtraction of the boundary layer (50 kts end up closer to 25 knots). The LLJ is weak and pointed farther west than usual. The 22Z SSCRAM suggests less than a 5% chance of severe hail or wind overnight. That might be a little low, but it's got the right idea. Have PoPs peaking near 30% at 6am in the SW 1/4th of the CWA before wrapping up by 9AM. Omaha, Norfolk, and points north and east should remain dry. .SATURDAY... The remainder of Saturday will be dry with sunny skies by noon. As the sfc pressure axis pushes through, light northerly winds will slowly become easterly by midnight. It'll be a great day to get some yard work done. Darn it. .SUNDAY... PoPs 45% (west) return on Sunday with a shortwave rounding the H5 ridge. Most will remain dry, but with the associated cloud cover, temps will slip by about 5 degrees. PoPs 40% (south) to 70% (north) climb higher after midnight, when 00Z guidance suggests a convective complex pushes through SD in the evening and into eastern Nebraska / western Iowa before sunrise Monday morning. .NEXT WEEK... The busy pattern continues. To date, OAX has issued its fourth most t-storm warnings this year (PoR 1986). Transient ridging ahead of a cutoff low traversing the Prairie provinces allows temps to climb a bit for Monday and Tuesday. That low's attendant cold front pushes through on Tuesday afternoon. This will bring another 40% chance of overnight thunderstorms thanks to the stalled front and isentropic upglide provided by the LLJ. 12Z global models suggest regular chance of precip and thunder through the work week as the area remains on the periphery of the southern high pressure dome. Looking for some change to hang your hopes on? All three deterministic global models develop zonal flow by next weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 601 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A cluster of showers and thunderstorms continues to track southeast across the forecast area this morning, following an enhanced area of theta-e 850-700mb. Forcing appears to be a combination of isentropic ascent enhanced by a shortwave rotating around the base of eastern Canadian H5 trough. Though convection may linger through 15-16z across southwestern part of the forecast area, the CAMS keep convection west of all TAF sites. Thus, except for a small window of -SHRA/-RA at KLNK through 13/14z, expect VFR conditions to prevail at all three TAF sites through the period. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...Fortin  921 FXUS63 KTOP 221106 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 606 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Thunderstorms approach the area from the north this morning. A few strong wind gusts could occur as storms move in. -Periodic shortwaves in the northwest flow bring additional chances for rain tomorrow and early in the workweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 At 07Z, there were two areas of thunderstorms on regional radar, one in western/central KS and another in north-central Nebraska. The storms in north-central Nebraska should continue to track southeast with the mean 850-300mb wind. Based on the current storm movement, storms could enter far northern Kansas by 11Z. Forecast RAP/HRRR soundings at that time show around 1000 J/kg of elevated CAPE and around 40 kts of effective bulk shear. Thus, storms should be able to maintain strength to move into the area and continue southeast this morning. A few strong wind gusts of 50-60 mph could occur with the strongest updrafts. Rain/storms exit the area late this morning, leaving us with partly cloudy skies and light winds for the afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday with highs generally in the mid 80s. The upper pattern won't change much this weekend or early next week, and continues to feature a large ridge centered over New Mexico with northwest flow over our region. Periodic shortwaves in the northwest flow will bring chances for rain and storms, with most guidance showing the next notable wave moving over northeast KS tomorrow afternoon. Forecast sounding show some mid-level lift associated with the wave, however, there appears to be a layer of dry air beneath H7 and fairly weak low and mid level flow. Additionally, earlier cloud cover looks to limit instability. Have kept POPs between 20-30 percent. Severe weather is not expected. Scattered storms could then redevelop Sunday night within an area of isentropic ascent in eastern KS. Temperatures warm slightly for Monday and Tuesday, but stay around climatological normals. The next chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night and early Wednesday with another mid-level shortwave. A weak cold front associated with a surface low near the Great Lakes also looks to move through the area on Wednesday, although temperatures and the main upper level pattern do not look to change much through mid-week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 602 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Have included a TEMPO group with the 12Z TAF update as a batch of rain and storms track southward toward airports early this morning. The most likely timeframe for TS impacts is 13Z to 16Z. Precipitation chances then decrease, leaving VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. Gusty winds of 25 to 30 kts are possible near convection and rain showers, otherwise, winds will be light at less than 10 kts today. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Teefey  955 FXUS65 KGJT 221106 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 506 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Monsoonal moisture will cause precipitation chances to become more widespread Saturday. - Heavier rainfall Saturday could lead to localized flash flooding over burn scars and susceptible terrain. - Temperatures gradually cool off for the weekend and into next week but still remains above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1014 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 COOLER & WETTER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND: High pressure will continue to be centered over our region through the weekend. Clockwise flow around this system will favor moisture advection into our CWA. Hence, precipitation chances will become more widespread Saturday under dominant southwesterly flow. Deterministic models are hinting at PWATs at 150-180% of normal during this time period. Storms are expected to favor the higher terrain initially, but adjacent valleys could also get in on the action as storms begin to move off the terrain. Models also seem to be hinting at a shortwave disturbing the driving flow Saturday, which would mean additional lift in an already saturated environment. This will subsequently increase flash flooding and debris flow concerns. Continue to be weather aware and have multiple ways to receive watches and warnings. Afternoon storm chances will be around Sunday as well while the increased atmospheric moisture remains in place. However, storm chances will be mostly confined to the higher terrain as no additional lift is anticipated from synoptic forcing. With that being said, flash flooding and debris flow concerns persist through at least Sunday as localized heavy rainfall remains a possibility. Daytime highs cool by about 5 degrees for the weekend, but still remain above normal for this time of year. NEXT WEEK: The environment continues to be saturated into next week which will keep afternoon thunderstorms in the forecast daily for the higher terrain. It is unclear how precipitation chances will pan out for the lower valleys at the moment. As more HiRes guidance becomes available, we will likely have a better grasp on what's to come. Daytime highs hold steady as we move into next week with most locations seeing similar temperatures as the weekend. These values will still be above normal but not quite into record breaking territory anymore. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 426 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Isolated showers continue to move north across eastern Utah. Isolated to scattered showers will increase across the region through the late morning with the higher terrain seeing more widespread showers and thunderstorms developing around 18Z. Some of the storms will move off the terrain over the lower valleys through the afternoon with most TAF sites seeing some impacts. Lightning, gusts to 45 kts and brief heavy rain producing MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be the primary threats from these storms. Otherwise, outside of the storms, expect VFR conditions through the TAF period with generally light terrain driven winds. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BS AVIATION...DB  068 FXUS62 KMHX 221109 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 709 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Flood Watch has been cancelled early. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Increased risk of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall continues today 2) Drier air and a reduced risk of thunderstorms Sunday and Monday, especially inland. A thunderstorm risk may linger along the coast. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A mid-level shortwave will lift slowly northeast along the coast of the Carolinas this morning, then shift away from the coast this afternoon. An attendant area of low pressure will also lift northeast along the coast while pulling a warm front north with it. The SFC low and warm front are expected to provide an area of enhanced low-level convergence along their trek up the coast. How close to the coast the low travels, and how much instability can be realized, will be important factors for which areas see the heaviest rainfall rates today. Given how convectively overturned the airmass is from yesterday, it may be that the instability gradient will reside right along the immediate coast, which would favor areas from coastal Onslow northeast through the OBX for the heaviest rainfall today. It's also possible that the instability gradient remains just offshore, keeping the higher rainfall rates offshore as well. Regardless, the heaviest rainfall axis should reside east of where the heaviest rainfall axis was yesterday, and east of where the Flood Watch originally covered. In light of that, the Flood Watch has been cancelled, and a watch is not currently anticipated for the coastal areas today due to 1) sandy soils which can be harder to flood, and 2) uncertainty regarding whether or not the higher instability will develop along the coast or offshore. Further inland, showers and scattered thunderstorms remain possible, but rainfall rates should be lower than yesterday due to less instability. However, some instances of minor poor drainage flooding may still occur. KEY MESSAGE 2...An anomalously strong upper level trough is forecast to translate east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast U.S. Sunday and Monday. Meanwhile, an associated strong cold front is forecast to push east across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas with much drier air in tow behind it. Normally this would spell a reduced risk of thunderstorms for ENC, and for most areas it probably will. However, recent guidance has started to trend slower with the front's eastward progression as the upper level forcing shifts NE away from the region, leaving the tail end of the front to potentially stall near the coast of the Carolinas. There appears to be 2 possible scenarios at this point, each of which is outlined below. SCENARIO 1: The front clears the coast of ENC. This scenario favors a reduced risk of convection areawide along with slightly below normal overnight lows and lower humidity. This scenario was previously favored, but has recently lost some model support. SCENARIO 2: The front makes it to the coast, but then stalls. In this scenario, dry conditions are favored inland, but with a risk of thunderstorms lingering along the coast. Interestingly, this scenario offers the potential for a sneaky strong to severe thunderstorm risk as drier mid-level air becomes more supportive of damaging downbursts. Lift and shear could also be enhanced as the area would remain in the entrance region of a strong upper jet. Lift could also be enhanced if a surface low rides up along the stalled front. Machine learning guidance do not show much of a signal for strong to severe convection, while the ECMWF's EFI guidance does show a decent signal. This scenario has been gaining some support in recent runs. For now, much ofENC is likely to remain dry Sunday and Monday, but for coastal areas, the thunderstorm risk is something worth keeping an eye on. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecast confidence is low to moderate over the next 24 hours. An area of low pressure will lift northeast along the coast of North Carolina this morning, then move away from the area by this afternoon. Inland of the low, the TAF sites will have to contend with periods of IFR/MVFR, with brief bouts of LIFR conditions possible this morning. Eventually, CIGs should rise to high end MVFR or VFR levels. Low CIGs or BR/FG may redevelop tonight, but confidence in this is low. A risk of TSRA will accompany today's low as well, although the greatest risk looks to be focused along, and just inland of, the coast. TSRA will be capable of LIFR/IFR VIS and gusty winds to 40kt. Outlook: A stronger cold front is forecast to reach the area on Sunday, but guidance now suggests it may stall along the coast through Monday. Should this occur, the TSRA risk would linger along the coast longer than previously forecast. However, even in that scenario, the risk may remain just east of the TAF sites. && .MARINE... Low pressure will lift northeast along the coast of the Carolinas this morning, then shift away from the area this afternoon. There will be an increased risk of thunderstorms along this low, especially for the central and southern waters. The inland rivers and sound and the northern coastal waters will still have a risk of thunderstorms today, but the risk looks a bit lower compared to yesterday. The low is not particularly strong, therefore winds should remain below 25kt for most waters. The exception is the outer coastal waters where occasional gusts to 25kt can be expected where the gradient will be the strongest. For the nearshore coastal waters, seas of 2-3ft are expected through tonight. For the outer coastal waters, seas of 3-5ft are expected. Outlook: A strong cold front will move into the ENC waters on Sunday, but may stall over the area through Monday. Where the front stalls is where the thunderstorm risk will be the highest through Monday. Strong winds of 40kt+ and waterspouts will be possible with the strongest storms. Eventually the front is forecast to move away from the area with winds laying down. Seas of 2-4ft are expected through Monday, but then are expected to lay down to around 2ft by Tuesday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RM AVIATION...RM MARINE...RM  039 FXUS64 KCRP 221108 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 608 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 604 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Heat Advisory may become necessary this afternoon. - Major risk of heat-related impacts continue into next week with peak afternoon heat indices around 110 - Daily elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 123 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Hot and rain-free conditions will continue through the weekend as high pressure persists. Fortunately, moisture will be limited through the weekend, which will help limit some of our heat concerns. That being said, it will still be very hot. Heat index values will still range from 105 to nearly 110 through Monday. Moisture starts to slowly increase beginning Tuesday, which will increase heat index values once again. Precipitation chances will remain near zero through Monday, but we still can't rule out an isolated shower along the seabreeze. Chances will increase slightly, though still remain below 10% Tuesday through the latter part of next week as moisture increases. The hope on the horizon is that the ridge may shift just enough to allow a trough to sneak under the eastern edge which could serve to cool things down ever so slightly and could increase the chances of rain to nearly mentionable. This is still very questionable, but we can hope. Continue to practice heat safety: look before you lock, limit outdoor exposure, drink plenty of water, and take frequent breaks. For more safety information please visit weather.gov/heatsafety. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 MVFR VSBY/CIGs across ALI and VCT this morning will improve to VFR between 13-15Z. VFR conditions will prevail across S TX through the TAF cycle with brief MVFR conditions expected once again tonight after 08Z. S-SE winds 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots can be expected this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 123 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Light to moderate (BF 2-4) onshore breezes will continue through the period, with occasional fresh (BF 5) breezes possible during the late afternoon/evening hours, especially south of Port Aransas. Seas are expected to remain around 2-3 feet. Rain chances will remain near zero into next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 123 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ERC values are in the 75-89th percentile, with low humidity, dry to critically dry fuels, and hot temperatures, leading to elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country and portions of the Coastal Plains. Conditions will need to be closely monitored as a few locations across the Brush Country could even see critical fire weather conditions into next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 97 77 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 102 75 102 74 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 105 79 106 79 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 102 74 102 74 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 92 81 93 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 105 77 106 76 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 100 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 94 81 93 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LS/77 AVIATION...TE/81  058 FXUS66 KPDT 221108 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 408 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag Warnings in effect for abundant lightning threat through this evening for portions of the WA Cascade east slopes and the Northern Blues - Breezy to gusty winds developing today will overlap with low relative humidity across lower elevation locations through this evening. Red Flag Warnings and wind advisories are in effect - Mostly dry conditions through the remainder of the week, with a return of breezy to windy conditions Wednesday && .DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery tonight shows an upper level closed low offshore southern OR, while nighttime satellite and radar imagery show weak, light scattered showers pushing north across southeast WA and northeast OR. Today through Sunday: The upper low offshore southern OR will be the main driver of weather conditions across the PacNW through Sunday night. Today, shower activity with low chances (5-20%) of embedded isolated thunderstorms will be focused along the WA Cascade east slopes, northern Blues, and Wallowa county. The activity will start early this morning along the WA Cascade east slopes, then spread east to the Northern Blues and Wallowa county in the afternoon. Latest CAMs show very weak instability support in the morning (MUCAPE 100-250 J/kg), but by the afternoon show modest instability modest instability (MUCAPE between 250-750 J/kg) developing in the afternoon, with strong low-level lapse rates (9-10 C/km). Thunderstorms through the afternoon will be capable of gusty outflow winds and abundant lightning, which has resulted in the issuance of Red Flag Warnings. The upper low lifting up the coast today will also result in a cross-Cascade pressure gradient to tighten, with winds strengthening as an associated cooler airmass begins to filter into the intermountain PacNW. Breezy winds 15-30mph with gusts 30-45mph will develop across the lower elevations through the afternoon. The strongest winds (sustained winds 25-35mph and gusts 45-50mph) will develop through the Cascade Gaps into western portions of the OR columbia Basin this afternoon, resulting in wind advisories being issued. Confidence is moderate-high (60-85%) that these strong winds will overlap with critically low relative humidities across most of our non- mountain fire weather zones this afternoon. As a result multiple Red Flag Warnings were issued for the wind/low RH threat across the Columbia Basin/Gorge, adjacent foothills/valleys, central OR, and the John Day Basin through this evening. Late Saturday through Sunday morning, the upper low will become an open wave trough as it moves inland across WA and northern OR. A slight chance (15-25%) of light showers will be possible across the WA Cascade crest Sunday morning. The upper trough will exit into Canada around the ID/MT border, leaving behind drier and cooler conditions the remainder of Sunday. Breezy winds (15-25mph with gusts up to 40mph) will redevelop through the Cascade gaps through early Sunday evening, with light winds returning Sunday night. Monday through Friday: Ensemble cluster guidance is in good agreement of upper level ridging building back over the PacNW Monday with dry conditions and a warming trend persisting through Tuesday. By Wednesday, ensemble cluster solutions are in good agreement that an upper trough will lift across the PacNW with a isolated light showers developing along the WA Cascade crest and breezy winds through the Cascade gaps into the Columbia Basin and adjacent valleys/foothills. That said, cluster solutions are in disagreement on passage timing and location of the trough, resulting in low confidence (25-35%) in forecast details. Thursday into Friday, cluster solutions favor a dry southwestflow over the PacNW as broad troughing extends from western Canada into the northeast Pacific. This will keep the region dry overall, with diurnally breezy winds through the Cascade gaps and near normal temperatures. Lawhorn/82 && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Low confidence (15-20%) in timing/impacts from area smoke at sites through the period. Winds will increase to 12-17kts with gusts to around 25kts at sites PDT/RDM/BDN/YKM later this morning through the early evening. Winds at site DLS will increase to around 20kts with gusts up to 35kts this afternoon and evening. Winds will remain light at sites ALW/PSC through the period. Lawhorn/82 && .FIRE WEATHER...An upper weather system impacting the region today will bring the threat of thunderstorms capable of abundant lightning across WA Cascade crest, northern Blues, and Wallowa county. In most non-mountain zones, breezy winds will overlap with critically low relative humidity this afternoon, resulting in critical fire weather concerns. Multiple Red Flag Warnings are in effect for abundant lightning and for the wind/RH threats. RHs will improve slightly and winds weaken Sunday, though elevated fire weather concerns will remain. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 90 50 83 50 / 10 0 0 0 ALW 93 58 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 96 58 86 53 / 10 0 0 0 YKM 95 58 86 57 / 30 0 0 0 HRI 92 58 85 52 / 10 0 0 0 ELN 87 54 79 52 / 30 0 0 0 RDM 89 44 84 45 / 10 0 0 0 LGD 95 52 86 50 / 10 10 0 0 GCD 95 53 88 52 / 10 0 0 0 DLS 85 60 84 59 / 10 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for WAZ026-522-523. Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ024-521. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM PDT this evening for WAZ690-691. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ692. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening for WAZ693. Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT this evening for WAZ026. Red Flag Warning until noon PDT today for WAZ695. OR...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for ORZ041-044-049-050- 502-503-505>507-509>511. Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ041-044-508-510. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM PDT this evening for ORZ691-696-698-700-703. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ692. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ693. && $$ DISCUSSION...82 AVIATION...82 FIRE WEATHER...82  359 FXUS64 KHGX 221110 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 610 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory remains in effect. Hot conditions will persist through next week. - Isolated thunderstorms possible late Saturday afternoon / evening. Best chance of a storm will be across our northern zones. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1059 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Taking a look at the large-scale view of the weather pattern via water vapor satellite imagery and 500 MB RAP analysis, one can see that the strong mid/upper ridge centered over the Four Corners region continues to be the dominant force over the Texas atmosphere. A quick glance at the global ensemble data shows that this ridge will likely remain dominant through at least the middle to later part of next week. If you have not been enjoying the recent very hot conditions, then I send to you my profound apologies. This pattern will likely skew temperatures hotter than normal through the next week, though perhaps we can dial the heat down slightly by the end of next week. Triple digit heat will be the norm across inland Southeast Texas, with low/mid 90s at the beaches. Humidity will easily make it feel 5-10 degrees hotter. A heat advisory is in effect through Sunday. I won't be surprised if we end up issuing advisories well into the upcoming week. Perhaps a few of you will experience some heat relief in the form of an isolated afternoon / evening thunderstorm. There was actually quite a bit of thunderstorm activity east of our region on Friday, with isolated activity occurring in our Piney Woods zones. Though Saturday's atmosphere will nearly the same synoptically, there could modest mesoscale differences that bring isolated storms to areas that remained dry on Friday. For example, we'll need to watch some of these outflow boundaries approaching from the east thanks to Friday's Louisiana storms. There will also be additional weak disturbances in the flow aloft worth watching. Monitoring these weak disturbances will likely be a theme throughout the next week. But generally speaking, expect mostly dry and very hot conditions through the forecast period. Self && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 528 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A few sites may see some MVFR cigs/vis through around 14Z this morning. Thereafter, VFR conditions are expected. SW winds this morning will be at 5-10 kts, turning S-SE during the mid-late afternoon hours. Winds will once again become S-SW during the night hours. With respect to rain, there's a chance for isolated showers/storms later today and this evening. Confidence of actual location of these showers/storms is low, thus, didn't include wx for this TAF issuance but may be added in the 18Z issuance or as AMDs. Cotto && .MARINE... Issued at 1059 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 South to southwest winds are expected to average 10-15 knots over the next several days. Gusts to 20 knots will be possible in the bays during the afternoon and in the Gulf during the overnight. Thunderstorm activity is expected to the north of the region Saturday. We cannot rule out a storm making it down to the coast late afternoon and evening. Gulf seas should average 2 to 3 feet over the next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 103 79 103 78 / 20 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 103 81 102 80 / 20 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 93 82 92 83 / 10 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Self AVIATION...Cotto MARINE...Self  441 FXUS64 KLUB 221110 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 610 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 608 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Hot temperatures will not let up through next week. - Isolated thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon and evening area wide with a marginal risk of severe storms. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A strong upper ridge will continue to persist across the area. Mild overnight lows in the 70s remain expected. Subtle height rises will allow for temperatures to increase even further Saturday and the Heat Advisory has been expected to include Lubbock. A weak shortwave will move over the area by evening. Best chances look to be generally east of I-27 where greatest forcing will occur, however a stray storm could occur anywhere. Again, brief locally strong gusts and downpours would be the main concern. These should taper off by late-evening with another quiet and mild evening thereafter. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 The aforementioned upper ridge will essentially stall in place for the next several days and very little change to the forecast is expected. Heat Advisory conditions look to continue the weekend along and east of I-27 and well into next week for areas off the Caprock. Storm chances should remain minimal, but may return by mid-to-late next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 608 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Light winds will continue through the TAF period. However, isolated storms may develop this afternoon, first near KCDS then late in the afternoon near KLBB and KPVW. Coverage is expected to be low so no mention was made in the TAF at the moment. If any storm were to affect a terminal, winds would briefly become variable and gusty. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-030>032-035>038-041>044. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...01  316 FXUS64 KOHX 221110 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 610 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 604 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Low thunderstorm chances late this afternoon and early evening, primarily across the Plateau. - Overall drier with slightly below-normal temperatures this weekend with patchy fog this morning and tomorrow morning. - Low to medium rain and storm chances next week with seasonal temperatures. && .UPDATE... Issued at 604 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Patchy fog this morning, especially near bodies of water. Use caution when you head out. We're currently under a marginal risk for storms today, but almost every CAM is depicting almost completely dry conditions through this evening. If any are showing up, it's on the Plateau. If you see a storm, there would be a very low risk of strong, gusty winds. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1020 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Quiet conditions are expected to prevail tonight with the only concern being fog. Mostly clear skies and light winds will be supportive for fog overnight. Highest confidence in fog is across the Plateau, and short-term models support this as well with only low probability of 10-20% for fog west of the Plateau. Upper-level troughing remains in place over the eastern CONUS Saturday, and a weak front will allow for isolated thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon, mainly for areas near the TN/AL border and across the Plateau. Otherwise, it'll be a fairly nice Saturday with most of the area staying dry and seasonable temperatures in the upper-80s to low-90s. Upper-level troughing continues into Sunday and behind the front, Sunday promises to be a very nice day with dry conditions and slightly cooler temperatures in the mid to upper-80s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1020 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Slightly below normal temperatures continue into Monday, but the aforementioned trough moves east by Tuesday. With ridging to the west, northwest flow sets up over Middle TN through the end of the week. Temperatures will warm a few degrees, but will still be seasonably normal. Northwest flow also allows for daily low to medium rain & thunderstorm chances to return Tuesday through the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 IFR to MVFR fog being seen at CSV/SRB. VFR should return between 13 and 14Z. Winds will be relatively light today, but occasional gusty of 15-18 kts during the afternoon. Fog will be an issue again tonight, especially for CSV/SRB, but may be a little more widespread. May need to include other terminals with future updates. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 92 63 88 61 / 20 0 0 0 Clarksville 91 63 87 61 / 20 0 0 0 Crossville 84 59 81 57 / 20 30 0 0 Columbia 93 65 90 62 / 20 20 0 0 Cookeville 86 61 83 59 / 30 20 0 0 Jamestown 85 61 81 58 / 30 30 0 0 Lawrenceburg 91 64 88 61 / 10 20 0 0 Murfreesboro 93 65 89 61 / 20 20 0 0 Waverly 92 65 88 63 / 20 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Unger SHORT TERM...Clements LONG TERM....Clements AVIATION.....Unger  577 FXUS63 KILX 221112 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 612 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A 20% chance of thunderstorms exists across east-central IL from 3-8 pm today. While severe storms are unlikely, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The early morning storms will continue to dissipate as they push southeast across central Illinois. What's left of the storms should be near to south of I-70 by 4 am. The weak cold front will shift winds to the northwest early this morning...ushering in slightly cooler temps. Temps will rebound into the 80-85 degree range for today. We'll see lower 500 mb heights for the weekend into Monday as an upper trough passes through the Great Lakes region...keeping temps a few degrees below normal. Sunday and Monday look to have highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Regarding shower/storm chances today, the HREF mean has 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE across central IL by midday... with some models teasing of a line of convection extending east to west from Danville to Lincoln by 5 pm. Have introduced some slight chances of storms moving south from 3 pm to 8 pm across east- central IL. SPC just has general thunder in this area...severe storms are not expected. PWATs are rather low, 1-1.25 inches, favoring a rather isolated storm setup. With 30kts of deep shear and some upper support, a strong to near- severe storm can't be ruled out, despite the drier air. Tonight, much drier air aloft will push into the area, bringing clearing skies and allowing lows to drop to the upper 50s to low 60s. For the work week, expect cooler than average temperatures at the front of the week give way to near normal temps for the mid to latter part of the week. We'll see another upper trough move from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region for Wed- Thu. Precipitation looks rather limited due to the pattern. However, there could be some low chances showing up as we get closer to the Wed-Fri timeframe. Models are hinting at something more organized for the latter part of next weekend. We'll see if this gains traction in upcoming model runs. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 611 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A cold front has pushed across central Illinois leaving a modest NW breeze in its wake. Winds will pick up into the 10-12kt range during the afternoon, then drop off below 10 kt after sunset this evening. VFR conditions and dry weather are expected to prevail through the day, though there is an off chance (20%) for a stray shower or storm this afternoon, especially across east central Illinois. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...07/Knutsvig DISCUSSION...07/Knutsvig AVIATION...Deubelbeiss  544 FXUS65 KTFX 221112 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 512 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms today, some storms will contain strong, gusty winds, heavy downpours capable of localized flooding over burn scars, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. - A surface front will bring gusty winds and elevated fire weather conditions on Sunday, there will also be a few lingering showers and storms east of I15, some may be strong to severe. - There will be a modest cooldown early next week with some widely scattered showers and storms, mostly over southwest Montana. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 200 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: A subtle shortwave moving through an increasingly southwesterly flow aloft is bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning. This activity will continue to weaken as it moves northeastward, but may produce localized gusty winds, lightning, and brief downpours. Stronger forcing associated with a trough approaching from the Pacific NW still looks to send a more impactful wave of showers and thunderstorms through the forecast area later this afternoon and evening. ML CAPE looks to generally fall in the 400 to 900 J/kg range for most locations, but there are some pockets with values as high as 1500 J/kg over portions of central and southwest MT. Very warm and dry boundary layers will increase instances of strong gusty winds up to and exceeding 60 mph, especially if linear upscale growth takes place. Hail and brief downpours capable of flash flooding of normally flood prone areas will also be present with effective shear generally above 25 kts and PWATS surpassing the one inch mark in some areas. The focus of this activity will be over southwest MT and and along the Continental Divide, although at least some of it will move northeastward onto the plains during the late evening and perhaps the overnight hours. The Pacific NW trough will swing northeastward through W MT and into Canada on Sunday while its attendant surface front traverses the CWA and brings gusty westerly winds and elevated fire weather conditions. There will also be lingering instability for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, with some on the strong side, mainly for locations east of I15. Temperatures modestly cooldown Monday and Tuesday with some shower and thunderstorm activity in southwest MT. This looks to be followed by ridging aloft briefly rebuilding before a couple Pacific troughs move through the Northern Rockies during the mid to latter part of next week. These systems will bring more showers and thunderstorms ahead of them followed by gusty westerly winds in their wake. - RCG - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Scattered strong thunderstorm activity through Sunday... Higher quality forcing brings more impactful showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Strong gusty winds in excess of 60 mph and lightning will be the primary hazards, especially if the storms become linear and undergo upscale growth. This threat will be highest over southwest MT and along the Continental Divide. Some weakening is expected with this activity as it moves northeastward, though these same hazards apply to plains locations as well. In addition to the winds, there will be localized heavy downpours capable of flash flooding of burn scars and other flood prone locations, mainly in central and southwest MT where there is around a 10% chance for excessive rainfall and localized flooding. While this activity will be monitored for the aforementioned flash flooding, I will continue to hold off sending out flood products per the more scattered nature of higher rainfall rates and progressive storm motion. The focus of this activity shifts eastward on Sunday with a few stronger storms for locations east of I15. Central/north-central locations east and southeast of the highway 87 corridor will see the strongest storm ceiling with strong, gusty winds, hail, and downpours all on the table. - RCG && .AVIATION... 22/12Z TAF Period A moist and increasingly unstable southwesterly flow aloft will bring a wave of light showers and some isolated thunder through 22/20Z, mostly impacting the southwest MT terminals with lower VFR clouds and isolated lightning. A more impactful area of showers and thunderstorms will move northeastward through southwest MT and along the Continental Divide after 22/18Z. This activity will move into North-central MT in a weakening state after 23/00Z. Strong, gusty winds, brief heavy downpours, and some instances of hail will be the primary hazards. For KGTF: Light southwesterly winds will become easterly after around 22/15Z. There is less than a 10% chance for cross winds over 15 kts outside of showers and thunderstorms. The most impactful convective activity will be between 23/00Z and 23/06Z. Hazards for these thunderstorms will be gusty outflows up to 40 KT as well as localized heavy downpours and lightning. - RCG && .FIRE WEATHER... Widely scattered showers and storms with cloud to ground lightning and little or light precipitation will continue to weaken this morning as they move northeastward. Even though this activity is of lower grade, some new fire starts can't be ruled out. More productive storms move in this afternoon and evening, but increased cloud to ground lightning activity may still ignite new fire starts. The most cornering fire weather day will be on Sunday when a surface front brings gusty westerly winds amid continued very warm and dry conditions. The timing of this front will ultimately determine how long the dry and windy conditions persist. The latest NBM probabilistic guidance continues to highlight large areas of north- central and portions of southwest Montana with over a 70% chance for wind gusts over 30 mph. Although the fuels aren't quite as dry as they were in earlier in the month, elevated fire conditions will be present and the wind may be enough to ignite any lightning caused hold over fires from Friday and Saturday's storms. In addition to the winds, there will be more widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with strong, erratic wind gusts. - RCG && .HYDROLOGY... The combination of increased monsoonal moisture aloft and lower level moisture moving in from the east today will result in a 10% chance for localized heavy thunderstorm rains producing flash flooding over and near burn scars, urban areas, and other normally flood prone locations. While this activity will be monitored for the aforementioned flash flooding, a flash flood watch will issued with this forecast package per the more scattered nature of higher rainfall rates and progressive storm motion. The moisture profile begins thin on Sunday, which will reduce the threat for excessive rainfall through early next week. - RCG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 90 61 89 53 / 30 40 20 0 CTB 85 57 81 50 / 30 20 20 0 HLN 90 57 87 52 / 30 60 30 0 BZN 87 53 86 50 / 50 40 40 10 WYS 81 45 78 41 / 50 40 30 10 DLN 86 52 85 48 / 40 60 10 0 HVR 93 61 93 55 / 20 10 40 20 LWT 88 59 89 52 / 20 30 40 20 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  717 FXUS63 KPAH 221115 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 615 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 25 to 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, and western Kentucky. - A few storms this afternoon could become severe with damaging winds being the main threat. - A daily 15 to 25% chance of showers and thunderstorms is forecast during the afternoon and evening hours Monday through Thursday. - Temperature and humidity levels will remain near typical late August values. && .UPDATE... Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 At the synoptic level early this morning, strong H5 ridging remains centered over the western CONUS, with increasing troughing over the Great Lakes and northeast CONUS. At the surface, low pressure is deepening over the northern Great Lakes, with an associated cold front moving into the southern Great Lakes and Midwest. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms associated with the cold front is currently moving southward across central IL. While on a weakening trend, this activity may impact locations along the I-64 corridor early this morning. For the rest of today, the chances of convection have increased during the afternoon hours, particularly across the southern half of the forecast area. Latest CAMs are showing moisture pooling ahead of the frontal boundary, boosting forecast CAPE values to 2500-3500 J/kg, along with DCAPE values of 1000-1400 J/kg. While shear will be marginal at best for severe convection (around 30 kts in the 00-06 km layer), the environment looks more supportive for a few severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Tonight, the front will clear the area, bringing a return of quiet weather for Sunday. However, by Monday through most of next week, the mid-level flow regime will become NW as the area remains sandwiched between the western ridge and northeast trough. As shortwaves rotate around the periphery of the ridge, daily chances of showers and thunderstorms are forecast during the afternoon and evening hours Monday through Thursday. Predictability is especially low in these setups, so timing out the precise arrival of the highest precipitation chances and severe thunderstorm risks is difficult at this range. Temperature and humidity levels will remain near typical late August values through next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 As lingering shallow fog at CGI and PAH mixes away, a cold front will move through the region from north to south now through the late afternoon hours. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon, mainly in southern parts of southeast MO and western KY. Right now, confidence was high enough to introduce PROB30 groups for TSRA to OWB and PAH, but this may be adjusted in the next TAF package. Winds will increase from the N to NW around 6-12 kts with gusts up to 20 kts possible this afternoon at OWB and EVV. Cloud bases will be around 4-8kft this afternoon with diurnal CU development. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...AZ/DWS DISCUSSION...AZ/DWS AVIATION...AZ/DWS  698 FXUS64 KSHV 221115 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 615 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 105 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Oppressive heat will continue through the forecast period, with triple digit temperatures common each day across much of the region through at least midweek next week. Resultant heat indices will range from 105-110 degrees each day. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible though this afternoon over much of the region, and could linger into the overnight hours across portions of Southwest Arkansas and North Louisiana, which may provide some brief relief to the heat. Given the intense heat/instability, isolated strong to severe storms will be possible capable of producing damaging downburst winds. - Aside from the potential for showers and thunderstorms to possibly graze the eastern sections of Southern Arkansas and Eastern Louisiana Monday morning, mostly dry conditions are expected over much of the area through at least midweek, further aggravating deteriorating drought conditions already in place. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 105 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The early morning sfc analysis indicates that the weak sfc trough that focused compressional warming, extreme heat indices at and above 110 degrees over much of Lower E TX/N LA, as well as scattered severe convection earlier Friday afternoon has being convectively reinforced S into the Nrn Gulf, with sfc winds already beginning to return from the S across SW LA and adjacent SE TX. Winds should eventually transition back out of the WSW elsewhere across the region through the mid-morning hours, eventually becoming more VRB through the day. The short term prog consensus suggest that convection Saturday afternoon should be more isolated across the area, with greater focus primarily tied to another weak sfc front that will shift S into NE OK/Nrn AR this afternoon, which will aid in enhanced forcing as another shortwave trough shifts SE into the Ozarks around the Ern periphery of the upper ridge centered over the Cntrl and Srn Rockies. Outflows from the convection to our N may help initiate isolated to widely scattered convection across SE OK/SW AR late this afternoon/evening as the remnants of this weakness aloft traverses S into the region before eventually weakening. The oppressive heat will continue to remain the primary story though as widespread triple digit temps will return, with temps similar if not hotter than what was observed Friday afternoon. Should see a little better mixing of dewpoints than what occurred Friday, with heat indices again ranging from 105-110 degrees. Thus, have maintained the Heat Advisory areawide through early this evening, although this will likely be extended again through Sunday. Additional isolated convection redevelopment may occur overnight tonight mainly over SW AR/N LA before diminishing Sunday morning, although elevated cigs may linger through at least a portion of the day over Srn AR/N LA which may help to taper back max temps slightly. However, widespread triple digit temps are again expected areawide, with attendant heat indices again ranging from 105-110 degrees. The center of the upper ridge remains progged to expand farther E across the Srn Plains into the Lower MS Valley Sunday, resulting in a mostly dry forecast, although the models continue to focus on a shortwave perturbation that will round the ridge over the Ozarks into Nrn AR/Mid-South region Sunday night, and ride SE towards the Gulf Coast Monday morning. A portion of this convection may affect the far Ern zones of SCntrl AR/NE LA late Sunday night/Monday morning, with convective debris likely limiting daytime heating to some extent such that theseareas should remain below 100 degrees. Unfortunately, this "cooling" for these areas will be short- lived, as the ridge aloft expands E once again Tuesday, reinforcing the triple digit heat and dry conditions areawide through midweek. However, the ridge is progged to begin retrograding back W into the Desert SW Wednesday through the remainder of the work week, resulting in a return to a more NWrly flow regime over the area, which would allow for additional weaknesses in the NW flow aloft to shift SE and potentially focus isolated to scattered convection Wednesday through Friday afternoons/evenings over portions of the region. The resultant cloud cover and daily convection may also help to scale back afternoon temps a tad as well, closer to if not a touch below the century mark. 15 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 For the 22/12Z TAF period, VCTS conditions will be possible this afternoon from 22/18Z through 23/04Z across most terminal sites in response to a lingering frontal boundary across the region. Additionally, could see convection moving into ELD/MLU from the north near 23/06Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions to prevail outside of any convection with light and variable winds expected through the period except for much higher gusts in and around the stronger convection. /05/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 105 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening over portions of the region for the potential of damaging downburst winds. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 104 79 103 80 / 20 10 10 10 MLU 104 75 101 77 / 20 20 10 10 DEQ 103 72 101 74 / 20 20 10 0 TXK 103 75 102 77 / 20 20 10 10 ELD 104 74 100 74 / 20 20 10 10 TYR 105 80 105 81 / 20 10 10 0 GGG 106 78 105 80 / 20 10 10 0 LFK 103 77 103 77 / 20 10 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...05  649 FXUS65 KPIH 221114 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 514 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms return to all of southern Idaho. Thunderstorms continue through the next seven days for many locations in southern Idaho. - Red Flag Warnings in place for scattered thunderstorms today for all of Central Idaho Dispatch area, Southern Idaho Dispatch area, and portions of the Eastern Idaho Dispatch area. - After record heat the past two days, clouds and precipitation will cool afternoon highs significantly today, then continue a weak overall cooling trend through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Long wave ridge will allow a weak shortwave to move through the mean southwest flow over the Gem State. This will enhance the thunderstorm activity in the already moist and unstable air over the forecast area. SPC has put nearly the entire forecast area in a marginal threat of severe thunderstorms (except a small wedge in Bear Lake County at the border with Utah. Thunderstorm threat is as high as 40 percent in the southern and eastern highlands. Could easily get G50KT for thunderstorm outflow. The increased moisture will mean more clouds and rainfall can cause evaporative cooling to bring the record temperatures of Thu and Fri down some 3 to 8 deg F. The cooling continues into Sun and Mon, but at a slower rate, with temperatures still in the upper 80s to around 90 on Sun and Mon. Overnight lows continue mild with the cloud cover. Wind stays weak today, but Sun will see 14 to 24 mph wind in the central Idaho mountains and the northwest side of the Snake River plain. Wind of this strength does not show up again until perhaps Thu. For other items in the extended (Tue through Fri), the strong upper level ridge is finally beaten down in some of the clusters on either Thu or Fri, but still only affects the forecast area in about 53 percent of the solutions. Upper level flow appears more southwest than south, which should cut down significantly on thunderstorm coverage during the extended period. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 504 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Incoming moist and unstable air is already in with some SHRA still going on in the northeast corner of the forecast area, including KDIJ. By 22/19Z the showers have spread to all airdromes, and shortly after that starts, PROB30 groups for TSRA develop at all five airports. The farther north, the longer it takes for TSRA to reach there. SPC has put all the locations in a marginal risk of severe TSRA forecast, so expect G45KT and higher possible. Do not see much in the way of precipitable water, so do not anticipate a reduction in VSBY, and no impactful CIG due to the TSRA, or whatever light SHRA may develop. However, there should be some areas with CIG getting below 7000ft AGL. Wind outside of thunderstorms should remain light, with none of the hourly model outputs indicating gusts exceeding 20KT. But watch for nearby TSRA. There is one airport that has a forecast of 25 percent risk of TSRA every hour for three hours. That would be KPIH, from 22/22Z to 23/01Z. This is rarely seen in NBH output, so have gone TEMPO here with the TSRA condition. This should be monitored for timing, but it makes complete sense that the hours of maximum heating should cause the heaviest and highest thunderstorm coverage. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 211 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 An influx of moist and unstable air, including the possibilities of outflow from a thunderstorm hitting 58+mph, will reach nearly everywhere in the Fire Weather Forecast area. Coverage of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening peaks at 25 percent to 45 percent, so Red Flag Warnings were issued yesterday forabundant lightning. Thunderstorm coverage lowers considerably for Sun, but then may be up again on Mon. Fortunately, the moist air is pushing humidity readings up. Most readings will stay well above the 15 percent threshold for critical fire weather criterion. Cloud cover helps, as the high temperatures that lately have been setting records will be solidly cooler. The cooling and more humid trend continues through Mon. One offset to this is that the cloud cover will keep temperatures warmer at night, so recovery may not be as good, unless some wetting rains occur. Wind will be up on Sun, mainly over the central Idaho mountains and the Snake River plain/eastern Magic Valley. It should be enough to meet critical fire weather speeds, but the humidity should be too high for any sort of critical fire weather situation. More wind develops Thu afternoon, but temperatures should be even cooler than this weekend, which bodes will for humidity readings. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-422-425-427-475-476. && $$ DISCUSSION...Messick AVIATION...Messick FIRE WEATHER...Messick  797 FXUS63 KABR 221118 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 618 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly dry conditions will continue through next Wednesday with temperatures around average for this time of year. - There is a 30-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms during the day Sunday into early Sunday evening over central SD, expanding to northeastern SD/west central MN Sunday night while increasing to a 50-70% chance. - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather Sunday night over much of central to northeastern SD. Brief heavy rain, lighting, and strong winds to around 60 mph will be the main concern. && .UPDATE... Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Update for 12Z Aviation Discussion below. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 113 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the 60s with winds out of the north to northeast at generally less than 10 mph. Today will be pretty similar to the last few days with some showers and maybe some weak thunderstorms across central SD after midnight and into Sunday. These storms are expected to continue through the day Sunday, with a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms. This outlook may be upgraded in future forecasts. The main threats look to be hail and wind. The NAM Nest in particular looks to have a bit of a bowing formation to the storms later in the evening which could produce some stronger winds. The environment for those storms will be rather moist. PWAT values are again in the 99th to 99.5th NAEFS percentile and 1.5" over central SD. This could lead to some heavy rainfall during storms. Models are starting to increase MLCAPE with generally 1100-1200 J/kg. Lapse rates have actually come down a little in deterministic models. Looking at Monday, PWAT isn't as impressive but MLCAPE values are between 1200 and 1500 J/kg with lapse rates between 7 and 7.5 C/km. Temperatures throughout the period will remain around average with highs in the 80s. Not too much in the way of smoke today, but there is a narrow band of some increased concentrations over the Missouri River valley. This would just bring a slight haze to the skies, nothing is expected to reach the surface. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will prevail during the period, as high pressure gradually departs today and leads to increasing high clouds this evening. Tried to show a little decrease in CIGS in central SD during the overnight hours and added in a PROB30 for showers potentially nearing KPIR during the last few hours of the forecast period. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...SRF DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...SRF  801 FXUS63 KGID 221119 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 619 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms arrive from the north early this morning. The severe threat has decreased, but a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out through 9am. - Dry conditions return for the rest of the daytime today. Weakening showers and storms arrive from the west late tonight into Sunday morning. - Scattered showers and storms continue on Sunday, but severe weather is unlikely. - Off and on chances for rain and thunderstorms continue through next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Scattered thunderstorms have developed over northern Nebraska are slowly drifting southward. This is expected to be the primary feature to watch through the morning hours, although some isolated showers/storms cannot be ruled out further south/southwest as well. As of 130am, these elevated storms remain fairly disorganized and unimpressive, but there is still potential for them to briefly organize/intensify as they slide through the area in the 3-9am timeframe. After these storms depart, the rest of the day looks to be dry with seasonable temperatures and light winds. Scattered showers and storms return from the west late tonight...most likely after 2am. These storms should be on a weakening trend as they move into an increasingly less favorable thermodynamic environment. As such, severe weather is unlikely. CAMs suggest that scattered showers/storms could persist through the daytime on Sunday. Lingering cloud cover will keep temperatures (and instability) on the lower side. Therefore the severe threat remains low. The continued northwesterly flow pattern will keep daily chances for rain and thunderstorms in the forecast through next week. Based on the global ensembles, Tuesday night appears to be the most favorable day for thunderstorms (and perhaps a few severe storms), but overall details remain very uncertain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 346 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Currently through the rest of this afternoon... Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to make their way southeast across the forecast area today...a trend that will continue though mid-late afternoon hours. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data showing this activity being driven by a weaker shortwave disturbance sliding out of central SD and into NNErn NE. This disturbance is embedded in larger scale northwesterly flow set up across the Central/Nrn Plains...between ridging extending northward out of the Desert SW and broad troughing across the Great Lakes/Midwest region, while a larger area of low pressure spins off the Pac NW coast. The surface pattern across the forecast area has been a bit of a messy one throughout the day...between just an overall weaker pressure gradient along with any even weak outflow boundaries produced by this activity today...winds are variable in direction. Most speeds have been around 5-10 MPH, a few spots closer to any storms have had gusts closer to 25-30 MPH at least for a brief time. For the rest of this afternoon-early evening...main story will continue to lie with continued potential for scattered showers/storms pushing SE through and eventually out of the forecast area. Near/out ahead of this activity, SPC meso page showing MLCAPE values exceeding 2000 j/kg, with deeper layer/effective shear of at least 30kts. Storms working their way SE will continue to have the potential to be strong/severe...one thing working against activity is that the upper level disturbance/lift just isn't overly strong, which isn't helping overcome some lingering capping. Large hail/damaging winds would be the primary threats. One good thing about the scatterednature of this activity is that so far, areas that had been on the wetter side over the past few days are getting a chance to dry up a bit. Later tonight on into this weekend... Once this ongoing activity slides off to our SE, models continue to show a relative lull across the area through the evening hours. Winds should be turning more east-northeasterly, with models showing an area of sfc low pressure setting up off to our west- southwest...but speeds look to remain on the lighter side overall. A few models try to bring another round of isolated activity back into the area already by around 06Z, but there is more model support for the timing of the next round of showers/storms to be closer to/after 08Z or so. Models showing this activity developing into a NW-SE orientated swath across the forecast area...tied to another weaker, mainly mid-level shortwave disturbance moving through, aided some by frontogenetical forcing closer to 850mb. Hi-res models showing this elevated activity could have CAPE values around 1500 j/kg to tap into, with deeper layer shear around 30-40kts possible...keeping the potential for strong-severe storms in place. Entire CWA remains in the SPC Day 1 Slight Risk area through tonight...large hail and damaging winds remain the primary threats, though additional heavy rainfall rates are not out of the question as well. Not out of the question that some activity could linger into the morning hours on Saturday...and uncertainty in the exact timing of that departure is not high...but outside of that models are in pretty good agreement showing the daytime hours being dry. Aloft, models showing continued northwesterly flow across the area...if anything that low pressure system currently off the Pac NW starts pushing inland, giving the main ridge axis a bit of an eastward push. Winds look to remain on the lighter side around 10-15 MPH, remaining easterly. Forecast highs are in the mid-upper 80s. Models showing another upper level shortwave disturbance riding around the edge of the ridge axis Saturday evening through Sunday AM...bringing another chance for showers/storms to the entire forecast area. The area is currently not outlooked in the SPC Day 2 outlook (just in general thunder)...with models currently showing the better axis of instability setting up just off to our west, and deeper layer shear is on the weaker side. Confidence in precipitation chances Sunday-Sunday night is on the lower side (outside of any lingering activity from Sat night)...with NBM PoPs mainly clipping northern and eastern portions of of the forecast area. Models not showing any notable change in the upper level pattern...and winds turn more southerly as sfc troughing develops over the High Plains. Forecast highs are more in the upper 70s for central/eastern areas, low-mid 80s further west...but that will be dependent on timing of any lingering precipitation. Next week... Periodic thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast as we get into the new work week...but honestly, not a ton of confidence at this point in the timing/tracking of any of the upper level disturbances driving these chances. Models show varying amplitude of the main upper level ridging through the week...so a stronger northward push of the ridge could push better precip chances out of the area, a more zonal pattern could bring more chances...plenty of details to iron out in the coming days. Not seeing any notable swings in temperatures either way through the week...with forecast highs mainly in the mid 80s-low 90s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Main concern comes right off the bat, as a cluster of showers/storms continues to slide southeast through the area early this morning. The terminal sites are on the backside of the heaviest storms, but for at least the first hour of this TAF period, will keep the potential mentioned in a TEMPO group. Dry conditions currently forecast for the remainder of this period once this activity moves out...though there is some uncertainty in the final couple of hours, mainly for KEAR, as models show the potential for another round of activity to be working in from the west. Will fine tune the timing as more model data arrives. Winds through the period remain light, variable for the front/back ends of the period...more easterly winds expected through the daytime hours today. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Mangels DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...ADP  790 FXUS63 KMPX 221118 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 618 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Pleasant this weekend with seasonable temperatures. -Low chances for thunderstorms overnight Sunday, & again on Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 119 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A pleasant & quiet weekend is expected as high pressure continues to settle over the Upper Midwest. Mostly sunny skies are expected both Saturday & Sunday with highs generally in the upper 70s to around 80, while lower dew points will make for comfortable late-August conditions. Northwest winds will become breezy this morning with gusts around 20-25 mph before winds diminish after sunset. Lighter winds return Sunday as the surface high moves overhead. Clear skies & light winds will also allow for good radiational cooling at night, with lows generally in the 50s and a few upper 40s possible across the typical cooler locations of central Minnesota & western Wisconsin. The surface high begins shifting east Monday, with southerly flow returning ahead of the next weak cold front. This front looks to move through sometime late Monday into Tuesday, bringing our next chance for scattered showers & thunderstorms. Moisture return ahead of the front looks fairly limited though, and considerable spread remains within the ensemble guidance regarding precipitation coverage, so rain chances remain fairly low at this point. The first round of thunderstorms looks possible late Sunday night into Monday morning, but guidance generally keep the shortwave & bulk of the precipitation off to the west over the Dakotas. Another cold front moves through the region on Tuesday, but current model timing consensus brings the front through during the early morning hours, which would mean that any widespread convection & appreciable rainfall could be limited. Otherwise, temperatures look to remain steady through next week with highs generally around 80 & lows in the 50s to low 60s. Overall, were looking at a fairly quiet & seasonable stretch of late- August weather over the next seven days. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 618 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 No major changes to the 12z TAF package, as VFR conditions are forecast to prevail across all terminals through the period. The main weather concern will the intensification of northwesterly winds this morning. Peak gusts are forecast to approach 25kts at the eastern MN/western WI terminals. Winds will diminish this evening as surface high pressure builds eastward and diurnal mixing ceases. Could see FEW-SCT cumulus around 5k feet through the afternoon. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR, chc -SHRA late night. Wind SE 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA early. Wind SW 10-15 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...Strus  884 FXUS63 KFGF 221120 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 620 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. && .UPDATE... Issued at 329 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Near term/short term impacts are minimal with passing mid level CU, seasonal temperatures in the 70s to near 80. Forecast concern over the next 4 days continues to be on the potential for a few severe thunderstorms late Monday and potentially Tuesday. Monday signal in more reliable AI systems has backed off compared to 24hr ago, and this is primarily driven by less favorable timing of forcing/instability in relation to our our CWA. The trend is for a slower frontal arrival (more guidance keeps this west) and delay in better forcing from the shortwave trough. Deep layer/effective shear will be maximized in our area though during the afternoon/evening and as the front does approach elevated storms could support a hail threat. The mid/upper low shows more variance in track through Tuesday, with at least some ensemble guidance showing a closed mid level low and center of cold pool dropping over our northeast and eastern CWA and under that scenario there would be at least a conditional risk for weak tornadoes. The vast majority of ensemble guidance shows a weaker low center (more of an open wave) and a track farther north and east with only a minimal chance for showers/weak thunderstorms in our northeast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...Synopsis... NW flow continues to become more amplified the next few days with increasing ridging across the Rockies and high plains. Troughing off the Pacific coast looks to move ashore Saturday and flatten the ridge bringing increasing precipitation chances Monday and Tuesday. Ridging then returns for the mid and late week. Could see some strong to severe storms on Monday/Tuesday though there are still a some unknowns so wont speculate into the potential too much. Overall seasonal weather with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s each day and peak daily heat indices generally 80-85 making a it a comfortable stretch of late summer weather. - Today A shortwave is quickly traversing the northwest flow aloft with cold air advection behind yesterdays wave helping to steepen mid level lapse rates. Overall pretty skinny instability but reminiscent of a springtime northwest flow with a deepening CU field and the expectation for afternoon showers/thunderstorms once we reach the convective temp in the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Not likley to see high rainfall totals but a few locations in northwest Minnesota could squeak out a quick tenth. Severe weather is not expected with only 20-25kts of eff shear and 1000 j/kg of ML CAPE but some small hail is not out of the question. - Rain/Severe Chances Early Next Week Similar to yesterday AI ensembles agree strongly on the track of the wave through the canadian provinces on Monday afternoon/Tuesday morning with the Euro still the more progressive solution but the GFS is catching up as expected. Overall the expectation is for lee troughing east of the rockies with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 j/kg to support at least a wind and hail threat on Monday afternoon/evening across parts of the Dakotas. This does appear to evolve into a closed 500mb wave with closed isotherms as well within the low meeting the definition of a cold core low supporting a localized tornado threat in Saskatchewan and Manitoba Monday but given the track this appears to stay well north of our area. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 There is still a low chance for ground fog to develop over parts of eastern ND and northwest MN before 14Z, however all current trends support prevailing VFR conditions through the TAF period at this time. There are a few areas of VFR CU early this morning 6000ft agl but this should lift closer to 8000-10000ft agl by late morning and drier air moving into the region aloft may support mainly clear skies. Winds increase from the north-northwest during the day today (10-14kt) with periodic gusts near 20kt during peak mixing. Winds are not expected to gust to 30kt today. As surface high pressure will be building into the region winds will quickly diminish with sunset this evening becoming light (5kt or less). Surface low pressure building to the west will eventually result in southeast winds increasing late in the TAF period over central ND (7-11kt). && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJR DISCUSSION...TT AVIATION...DJR  911 FXUS63 KUNR 221120 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 520 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Upper ridge will dominate the weather through early next week. - Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur late Saturday afternoon and evening, especially across northeast Wyoming. - Temperatures will average about 4-8F above normal. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1053 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A couple stray showers or thunderstorms are possible overnight across the south-central South Dakota plains, sticking fairly close to the Nebraska border, with dry conditions elsewhere. Next round of thunderstorm potential still on track for late Saturday afternoon and evening across northeast Wyoming, spreading eastward into South Dakota with time later Saturday evening. A severe cell or two with damaging winds and large hail will be possible, especially west of the Black Hills, as forecast soundings and HREF guidance support 1,000 to 2,000 J/kg of SBCAPE combined with sufficient moisture and deep-layer shear as high as 40kts. Instability may tend to wane a bit east of the Black Hills, where some early-evening capping in forecast soundings also casts some uncertainty on thunderstorm evolution. Currently do carry PoPs eastward across our South Dakota zones from late evening into the overnight as everything trends east. && .DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Thursday) Issued at 1149 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Current upper-air analysis and water vapor imagery depict large- scale ridging continuing to strengthen over the southwest. Satellite imagery indicates partly cloudy skies behind the thunderstorms and showers that moved through the region this morning. Current radar scans show a few weak returns associated with showers/virga over western SD. Surface observations show temperatures mainly in the 80s, with dewpoints in the 40s across northeast WY transitioning to the low 60s across south-central SD. Winds are generally easterly across western SD and southerly across northeast WY at 10 to 17kts, gusting to 25kts. Campbell Co. in particular may see gusty northeasterly winds up to 25kts, behind a weak frontal passage, and minRH values in the upper teens this afternoon. Due to these conditions, elevated fire weather concerns will continue to persist through this afternoon for Campbell Co. There is still uncertainty around today's chances for thunderstorms across southwestern SD, both in timing and severity, with disagreement remaining among the CAMs. However, MLCAPE values of ~750-1250 J/kg, dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s in the SD plains, and 0-6km bulk wind shear values around 55kts indicate that the environment in southwestern SD could support thunderstorm development and a supercell or two. The timing of the shortwave today, the cap currently in place, and the strong vertical moisture gradient between the SD plains and the Black Hills will all play a large role in storm development this afternoon/evening and into the overnight hours. Due to these factors, there is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms southeast of Rapid City down to the SD/NE border, with the primary threats being large hail (up to 2") and damaging winds (60-70+ mph). As a result, 15 percent POPs were added to the southern Black Hills and into southwestern SD for this afternoon into the evening. Multiple disturbances riding along the ridge will keep scattered thunderstorms chances in play for Saturday and Sunday, with northeast WY favored for better coverage Saturday. As is typical for thunderstorms in August, chances for precipitation will be hit-and- miss. Cloud cover and storm placement will also drive day-to-day temperatures, though highs are expected to remain above average across most of theregion through the weekend and into next week as the ridge remains in place. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Sunday Morning) Issued At 518 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon hours. Breezy southeasterly winds will develop after 14-15z with gusts 20 to 25 knots. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across NE WY after 22z, spreading eastward through Saturday evening. Transient MVFR/IFR conditions are possible with any convection along with hail and gusty, erratic winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 1149 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Elevated fire weather concerns will continue through this afternoon for Campbell Co., where gusty northeasterly winds up to 25kts will combine with minimum relative humidity values in the upper teens. Thunderstorm chances increase across northeast Wyoming late Saturday afternoon, increasing the dry lightning risk, however, relative humidity values will increase to the upper 30s to low 40s. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ UPDATE...KSmith DISCUSSION...Schultz AVIATION...SE FIRE WEATHER...Schultz  031 FXUS62 KJAX 221122 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 722 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Isolated Strong Thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Hazards: Gusty Winds (40-60 mph), localized flooding, & frequent lightning. Concern Areas: I-95 corridor and areas north of I-10. Timing: 3 PM 10 PM - SUN-MON: Isolated to Scattered Thunderstorms, mainly NE FL. Increasing thunderstorm coverage Tuesday-Friday && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Highlights through Tonight: - Potential for strong thunderstorms this afternoon and evening Lingering upper shortwaves ahead of the weakening frontal boundary in central GA will help trigger morning showers and isolated storms moving inland from the Gulf. Convection will then spread east- northeastward through the day in the general southwest flow. Slightly drier air (PWATS 1.6-1.8 in) may advect in from the northeastern Gulf keeping coverage to isolated to widely scattered across NE FL this afternoon. Best chances for storms will be along the sea breeze merger near I-95 and SE GA closer to the diffusing frontal boundary. An isolated strong storm may be possible along boundary mergers producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Convection will shift off the Atlantic coast later this evening. Amplifying mid-upper trough digging down the eastern US will shift the upper "heat dome" ridge away from the region bringing a break from Heat Advisory conditions. Highs today will be in the low-mid 90s with max heat indices in the 100-106 F range. Overnight lows will be in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period (Sunday and Monday): - Limited thunderstorm activity for SE GA Sunday and all areas Sunday - Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm possible across NE FL and north-central FL on Sunday. - Hotter and drier; heat index in the 100-105 range each day. The leftover stalled frontal zone will remain stretched across southeast GA as it decays on Sunday. Though the driest airmass will remain to the north, precipitable water will fall to around 1.5" or lower across southeast GA while HiRes ensemble guidance sends a moist tongue of PWAT > 2" across northeast and north-central FL through the afternoon hours amid a south-southwesterly steering flow. This should encourage scattered thunderstorm development on the progressive Gulf breeze during the afternoon hours. PoPs were kept at 30-40% range for now but that may need to be increased, particularly along the St Johns River corridor and points east where the late day sea breeze collision is likely. There will be an upper shortwave gliding across the boundary but timing will be critical in whether it will support ascent or hinder convection with wake subsidence. If it lines up timing with supporting ascent the potential for stronger or possibly severe isolated storms will increase. Main concerns will be downburst or gusty microburst winds up to 60 mph. Enough storm motion, around 10 mph should minimize flooding risk. For Monday, the local airmass will be on the dry side to start but there are signals that moisture will be advected west-to-east and may bring sufficiently moist air into southeast GA by the late afternoon, though confidence is low. With that uncertainty and possible lingering dry air, thunderstorm chances are in the "isolated to widely scattered" coverage range (15-25%) for Monday afternoon. One consideration will be the potential for high downdraft energy both Sunday and Monday with the infiltration of dry layers aloft. As drier air pushes in this weekend, it will help temper heat index readings as dry aloft helps mix out and lower surface humidity levels. While ambient air temperature highs will push up toward the mid/upper 90s each day, expect heat index to be in the 100-105 degree territory. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Main Highlights This Period (Tuesday through Friday): - Daily Thunderstorm Chances Returns on Tuesday Deeper moisture returns by Tuesday as broad upper troughing remains established across the eastern US. Several mid level shortwaves will be directed toward the southeast from Tuesday onward. With little migration in the low-level ridge axis, southwesterly flow, a dominant Gulf breeze, and pinned Atlantic sea breeze will be predominant through the work week. This will likely lead to late afternoon and evening storms favoring the I-95 corridor each day. If timing holds, a surface front is suggested to nose southward across GA which may result in an increased potential for more robust convection next weekend as it stalls. Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the week with highs generally in the low 90s Tuesday onward with heat index values generally below local heat advisory criteria at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Brief MVFR CIGS are possible this morning around 2500 feet, but will mainly impact KGNV where isolated showers are already popping up nearby with VCSH needed with the new forecast package. Light winds early this morning become SW at 5-10 kts by 15Z. Another round of showers and storms will move in the vicinity of the TAF sites from southwest to northeast. Convection may pass near GNV beginning around 15Z with VCTS included. Have PROB30s in for potential thunderstorms impacting the TAF sites between 19-24Z. Confidence isn't high enough to put as prevailing or TEMPO. Convection fades after sunset (00Z) with mainly VFR conds through the overnight hours. && .MARINE... A frontal zone will extend across the Carolinas and into Georgia with a high pressure ridge to the southeast. Rounds of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms can be expected each day. Brief southerly wind surges are expected during the late afternoon and evening hours as the Atlantic sea breeze shifts onshore. But, winds are expected to remain below Small Craft Exercise Caution levels. The cold front will push into the local waters Sunday night into Monday and then lift back northward as a warm front by mid-week. Rip Currents: Offshore winds will prevail throughout the morning hours, along with low surf heights, during the next several days. With the outgoing tide occurring later in the afternoon, the overall risk will be low to low end moderate this weekend as an afternoon seabreeze brings south to southeast winds to the beaches. Surf/breakers will remain 1-2 feet or less. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Locally High Dispersion Sunday And Monday For Se Ga Unsettled weather continues today with showers and storms possible along a stalling front and the sea breeze this afternoon. A few storms will be capable of strong wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. West to southwesterly breezes continue today and for the next several days with the exception of the coastal areas where the afternoon Atlantic sea breeze will shift winds east to east- southeast. A dry northwest flow will bring lower humidity and mostly dry weather to southeast Georgia Sunday with minimum humidity between 30- 40% while scattered to isolated afternoon showers and storms favor northeast FL. Hotter temperatures on Sunday and Monday will increase mixing heights across southeast GA, leading to locally high dispersion each afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 93 71 97 72 / 50 20 20 10 SSI 90 76 92 77 /60 40 10 10 JAX 94 74 95 74 / 50 40 20 10 SGJ 93 75 93 75 / 40 30 30 10 GNV 92 73 92 73 / 30 20 30 0 OCF 92 73 92 72 / 30 20 40 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$  063 FXUS62 KMLB 221123 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 723 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Daily afternoon shower and storm development is forecast across east central Florida through this weekend and into next week. - Storm hazards today will include frequent lightning strikes, strong to marginally severe wind gusts, small hail, and heavy downpours leading to rainfall accumulations of 1-3". - Heat remains a concern across east central Florida, though peak heat indices are anticipated to stay below advisory criteria. Regardless, residents and visitors to the area are encouraged to practice heat safety! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Today-Tonight...Deep mid-level troughing remains in place across the eastern US today, with a shortwave positioned across north Florida being absorbed into the broader pattern. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis will remain south of east central Florida as a quasi-stationary boundary draped across the southeastern US drifts farther south towards Florida. Locally, light southwest winds are forecast through this morning, with winds becoming more southeasterly along the coast this afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops and attempts to push inland. The sea breeze will struggle due to prevailing southwest winds aloft. A plume of moisture will generally remain in place locally, but Saharan dust will work through the mid and upper levels, with PWATs trending slightly lower in the 1.8-2.0" range. There is still a 30-40% chance of showers and storms today despite the drier air being a limiting factor to development, with energy aloft and the sea breezes potentially providing enough support. Coverage is favored to increase after 2 PM, with activity pushing towards the coast thanks to the aforementioned southwest steering flow. Adequate daytime heating will increase instability, drier air aloft will support stronger downdrafts (DCAPE 1000 J/kg+), and cooler 500mb temperatures (-7C) will increase the potential for hail. This means the main hazards for today with convective development will include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 55 mph (with a low chance for severe wind gusts), small hail, and heavy downpours with rainfall accumulations of 1-3" possible. The best chances for showers and storms remain focused along the coast. Activity will push offshore and across the local Atlantic waters late this evening into the overnight hours, with mostly dry conditions across the peninsula. Another day of high temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s across east central Florida, with peak heat indices remaining just below advisory criteria in the 102F to 107F range. Adequate hydration and breaks in the shade or an air conditioned building will be important for those spending extended periods of time outdoors and as always, children and pets should never be left alone in vehicles for any period of time. Temperatures overnight will remain near-normal in the mid-70s. Sunday-Monday...The mid-level trough begins to weaken towards the end of this weekend and into Monday, with the potential for a couple additional shortwaves moving towards the Florida peninsula. The pattern will remain fairly consistent into Sunday, with the surface boundary remaining draped across the southeastern US. However, the weakening of the trough will result in the surface boundary shifting northward by Monday, with the Atlantic ridge axis anticipated to also begin lifting north back towards the Florida peninsula. Southwesterly winds persist on Sunday, shifting more southerly on Monday. The typical diurnal summertime pattern persists with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible across east central Florida as the sea breezes develop, though drier air aloft may act to limit convective development, especially on Monday. Lightning strikes, wind gusts to 55 mph, small hail, and heavy downpours will be possible on Sunday, with lower confidence in the hail potential on Monday as mid-level temperatures trend a degree or two warmer. Activity timing will favor the afternoon and early evening hours each day, with showers and storms diminishing into the overnight hours. Isolated development across the local Atlantic waters will be possible overnight, with dry conditions across the peninsula. Temperatures will remain near-normal through the remainder of this weekend and into Monday, with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s. Peak heat indices will continue to range from 102F to 107F. Tuesday-Friday...Weak mid-level troughing will remain in place across the eastern US into next week, with a series of shortwaves traveling around the main trough and digging southward into Florida. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis continues to establish itself across the Florida peninsula, with the return of predominantly southerly flow advecting moisture towards the peninsula. The energy aloft from the passing shortwaves coupled with the daily afternoon sea breeze development will result in a return of near-normal shower and storm chances across east central Florida, with PoPs ranging between 30-40% on Tuesday and 40-70% Wednesday onward. All of the typical summertime storm hazards will be possible, including lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. Following the usual diurnal trend, activity is anticipated to diminish into the late evening and overnight hours each day, with mostly dry conditions overnight. Outside of shower and storm chances, temperatures across east central Florida will remain right around normal values through next week. Humidity will continue to push peak heat indices well above 100F, though most guidance suggest values remaining below advisory criteria. This will continue to be closely monitored. Regardless, residents and visitors should plan to practice heat safety to avoid developing heat-related illness. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast across the local waters. The Atlantic ridge axis will remain south of the local waters this weekend, keeping winds generally out of the southwest. By Monday, the axis lifts northward and will remain draped across the waters, resulting in winds shifting to out of the south. The development of the east coast sea breeze each afternoon will cause winds to become more southeasterly, increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are anticipated to remain between 1 to 3 feet, highest across the offshore waters. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across the local waters through the afternoon and evening hours as activity from the peninsula pushes offshore. Storms will be capable of producing frequent cloud-to-water lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 30 knots, small hail, heavy downpours, and locally higher seas. While conditions are forecast to trend drier through the overnight hours, some isolated development across the Gulf Stream waters cannot be fully ruled out each night. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 723 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 No significant changes from previous TAF package. Still expecting a quiet morning before we see another round of scattered afternoon and early-evening storms. Weak sea breeze hugging the coast and diffuse Gulf breeze should be foci for the convection late in the day. Continued PROB30s that were inherited primarily from 21z to around 1z. Wind gusts exceeding 35 kt will be the primary hazard today as downburst potential seems substantial due to dry air aloft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 94 75 92 75 / 40 20 30 10 MCO 95 76 93 76 / 30 20 40 10 MLB 94 76 93 76 / 40 30 40 10 VRB 93 75 93 75 / 40 20 30 10 LEE 93 75 91 75 / 30 10 40 10 SFB 94 76 92 76 / 40 20 40 10 ORL 95 77 93 77 / 30 20 40 10 FPR 92 75 93 75 / 40 20 30 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tollefsen AVIATION...Heil  057 FXUS64 KBMX 221123 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 623 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 623 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026 - Minor HeatRisk will continue through the weekend. Heat indices are forecast to remain below 105 degrees. - Drier air will result in less rain chances through the weekend, although some storms may develop across the north late Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... (Saturday through next Friday) Issued at 1132 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026 In the short term, decreasing dew point depressions and light winds following earlier convection will likely support patchy fog development around sunrise Saturday morning (20-40% probability). As upper-level ridging builds over the weekend, increased subsidence and drier air will temporarily lower precipitation chances. However, latest CAMs indicate a weak shortwave riding the ridge periphery, potentially affecting the northwest counties late afternoon into early evening. Consequently, maintained 20- 30% rain chances after 7 PM Saturday night. High temperatures are expected to persist in the low to mid-90s, though arriving drier air will limit heat indices to generally 100-104 degrees. Looking into next week, high confidence exists in a stagnant upper-level pattern dominated by a strong ridge over the Southwest and southern tier. While the ridge holds, moderate confidence exists in the timing of shortwaves rotating through the northwest flow and a moderating frontal surge, which are expected to increase precipitation chances for the Southeast. Periodic bouts of rain and thunderstorms are forecast to overspread the region starting Tuesday and continuing through Friday as moisture and instability pool along the ridge's periphery. 16 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026 Patchy MVFR CIGs are expected to linger for a few hours this morning at TCL and AUO, before generally mixing out past 22/14z. Beyond that, confidence is high in VFR conditions for the remainder of this TAF period. Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage. /44/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air filtering into the area on Saturday will result in a decrease in relative humidity (35 to 45%) for most locations. However, wind speeds are expected to remain light, which should negate any significant fire weather concerns during this period. Moisture gradually begins to return early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 94 70 92 66 / 0 10 0 10 Anniston 92 69 91 66 / 0 10 0 10 Birmingham 93 72 92 70 / 0 20 10 10 Tuscaloosa 98 73 96 72 / 10 20 10 20 Calera 94 72 93 69 / 0 10 10 10 Auburn 91 72 91 71 / 10 10 10 10 Montgomery 96 73 96 71 / 10 10 10 10 Troy 95 71 95 70 / 20 10 10 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...16 AVIATION.../44/  979 FXUS64 KLZK 221121 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 621 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 -A Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place across the entire state of Arkansas for storms which are expected to impact the state between this early afternoon into the late evening. -The main hazards with storms which become severe will be damaging wind gusts and a few instances of large hail. -High temperatures across most of central and southern Arkansas will manage to reach and/or eclipse the century mark before the frontal boundary and associated scattered storms move into Arkansas. -Heat Advisory remains in effect across southern Arkansas as heat index values will manage to reach between 105 and 109 for a period of several hours before storms are expected move into this part of the state this evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The continued trend of northwesterly flow aloft over Arkansas will remain. An upper lvl shortwave progged to move over the state will allow a weak front to drop down into Arkansas by early afternoon and track southward across the state. The airmass ahead of this advancing weak cold front will be hot and humid with plenty of CAPE allowing for the expected development of scattered thunderstorms across the state between early this afternoon into late this evening. The Storm Prediction Center has designated the entire state of Arkansas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather today with the main hazards possible as damaging wind gusts and a few instances of large hail with any storm that does manage to become severe. Before the anticipated arrival of the weak cold front and associated scattered convection, high temperatures are expected to reach or exceed 100 degrees across most of central and southern Arkansas. A challenging high temperature forecast for today as locations across the state, especially in central and southern Arkansas will likely experience compression heating just ahead of the advancing front where temperatures will quickly, but briefly rise a few degrees before the frontal boundary overtakes a location. For this reason and overall trends during this heatwave have trended toward NBM 75% and NBM 90% values. For the remainder of the forecast period, from Sunday through the upcoming workweek, expect hot temperatures to persist with a few days of relief possible which would lower temperatures a tad to normal values for this time of the year as multiple weak frontal boundaries are anticipated to move across the state which will promote appreciable POP chances (expected on Monday) and modest POP chances (on Wednesday into Wednesday Night). && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR flight category will be present across all sites for the majority of the forecast period from Saturday morning through Sunday morning. The exception will be scattered storms which are expected to move from north to south across the state of Arkansas. The timeframe for when these storms will move across the state will be from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. If a storm happens to directly move over a TAF site VSBY will likely drop to MVFR or possibly as low as IFR flight category for a brief period of time in addition to surface wind gusts associated with the storm in excess of 40 knots. Cumulonimbi will reach altitudes as high as 40,000 to 45,000 feet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 100 71 94 70 / 60 20 0 50 Camden AR 104 72 99 73 / 10 30 10 20 Harrison AR 93 68 89 68 / 40 20 20 60 Hot Springs AR 103 73 97 73 / 30 20 10 30 Little Rock AR 103 74 96 74 / 50 30 10 50 Monticello AR 103 74 97 75 / 20 30 10 30 Mount Ida AR 102 71 96 72 / 30 20 10 20 Mountain Home AR 94 69 90 68 / 40 20 10 60 Newport AR 98 71 93 71 / 50 30 0 40 Pine Bluff AR 101 72 96 72 / 30 20 10 40 Russellville AR 100 72 94 72 / 30 20 10 40 Searcy AR 100 71 94 71 / 60 20 0 50 Stuttgart AR 100 73 95 73 / 50 30 10 50 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ052-053-062>069. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...74  131 FXUS64 KAMA 221125 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 625 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 932 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Summer heat wave continues will highs near or above 100 through at least early next week with few exceptions. - Low chance (10-20%) for isolated to widely scattered afternoon & evening storms this weekend, with slightly higher chances each evening next week. .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A section of the monsoon moisture plume remains parked across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles which has helped storm production each afternoon even while under large scale high pressure. This will remain the case for today as ~598 dam 500mb high pressure continues its dominance over the southern high plains leading to another day of very hot temperatures. However, similar to the last couple days, an outflow boundary and potentially even and MCV may be moving southeast from KS/CO later this morning, in addition to an MCS further east in KS eventually moving into OK. The early signs of these features can already be seen with convection firing near Scottsbluff NE and another area of storms east of Colorado Springs to near Lamar, CO. How these convective feature evolve overnight (along with their outflows) will largely determine how warm the Panhandles will get today and what areas may have additional rounds of storms this afternoon. The latest high resolution models, including the LPMM of the HREF and latest run of the RRFS, suggest an outflow boundary will "back" into the area from the east northeast and eventually help fire off some storms in the far southern TX Panhandle. However, some recent models are hinting at the development of an MCV which could clip our northeast zones later this morning, and potentially leave us high and dry later today if we end up on the subsident side. Thus, there are a lot of "flys in the ointment" so to speak, and this applies for both storm chances and temperatures. If the outflow boundary is sufficiently strong, northeast zones could stay in the 90s today, and our advisory areas may be limited to the far southeast and south central counties. With so many CAMs agreeing with the general evolution of this boundary, have kept the advisory confined to the far south, and have nudged temperatures down towards some of the cooler HREF members. Again, the key will be to closely monitor the convective features coming out of CO and KS/OK. Any storms that do get going later today should have a similar marginal MLCAPE (750-1000 J/kg) low shear environment to work with, with shear increasing further to the east into OK (more under the stronger northwest flow aloft). Soundings will be inverted-V with large DCAPE. Thus, any storms in our area should be single cell with some merging clusters and a low wind threat with the strongest storms or any storms that manage to move faster than a snails pace (which isn't likely based on weak wind profile). Sunday should be very similar to Saturday as far as the overall synoptic pattern goes (high pressure dominating with Theta-E plume in place). Some areas will probably see isolated to scattered storms once again, but exactly where will depend a lot on what happens on Saturday and where our boundaries end up. It does look like the wind could be a little more breezy in the west, so elevated fire weather will be more of a concern. Some areas will likely need heat headlines, especially east and central zones. Ward && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A section of the monsoon moisture plume remains parked across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles which has helped storm production each afternoon even while under large scale high pressure. This will remain the case for today as ~598 dam 500mb high pressure continues its dominance over the southern high plains leading to another day of very hot temperatures. However, similar to the last couple days, an outflow boundary and potentially even and MCV may be moving southeast from KS/CO later this morning, in addition to an MCS further east in KS eventually moving into OK. The early signs of these features can already be seen with convection firing near Scottsbluff NE and another area of storms east of Colorado Springs to near Lamar, CO. How these convective feature evolve overnight (along with their outflows) will largely determine how warm the Panhandles will get today and what areas may have additional rounds of storms this afternoon. The latest high resolution models, including the LPMM of the HREF and latest run of the RRFS, suggest an outflow boundary will "back" into the area from the east northeast and eventually help fire off some storms in the far southern TX Panhandle. However, some recent models are hinting at the development of an MCV which could clip our northeast zones later this morning, and potentially leave us high and dry later today if we end up on the subsident side. Thus, there are a lot of "flys in the ointment" so to speak, and this applies for both storm chances and temperatures. If the outflow boundary is sufficiently strong, northeast zones could stay in the 90s today, and our advisory areas may be limited to the far southeast and south central counties. With so many CAMs agreeing with the general evolution of this boundary, have kept the advisory confined to the far south, and have nudged temperatures down towards some of the cooler HREF members. Again, the key will be to closely monitor the convective features coming out of CO and KS/OK. Any storms that do get going later today should have a similar marginal MLCAPE (750-1000 J/kg) low shear environment to work with, with shear increasing further to the east into OK (more under the stronger northwest flow aloft). Soundings will be inverted-V with large DCAPE. Thus, any storms in our area should be single cell with some merging clusters and a low wind threat with the strongest storms or any storms that manage to move faster than a snails pace (which isn't likely based on weak wind profile). Sunday should be very similar to Saturday as far as the overall synoptic pattern goes (high pressure dominating with Theta-E plume in place). Some areas will probably see isolated to scattered storms once again, but exactly where will depend a lot on what happens on Saturday and where our boundaries end up. It does look like the wind could be a little more breezy in the west, so elevated fire weather will be more of a concern. Some areas will likely need heat headlines, especially east and central zones. Ward && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Latest medium and long term ensembles continue to suggest that our high pressure will start shifting west slightly Monday into Wednesday. This will allow shortwave disturbances to cross into the area on northwest flow aloft, and provide more chances for evening and overnight storms, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures also may drop at least for a day or two next week partially due to the increased cloud cover, but also just in response to height falls and being remove from the high pressure center. Unfortunately, it looks like the high does try to squeeze back to the east late week into next weekend, so chances are we will see at least a few more days of widespread 100-105 degree heat to finish off August. Hopefully early September will see the demise of our high pressure, as some longer range ensemble members are suggesting.Ward && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Another boundary is expected to stall in the Southern Texas Panhandles this afternoon with potential to severe as a good lifting mechanism for showers and thunderstorms. Currently KAMA is the only terminal that CAMS have seen any potential for impacts. However, confidence in impacts to said terminal has be low, given the trend of a more southerly placement of the boundary alongside the coverage being more isolated in nature. Still, this confidence can quickly change should the boundary move further north with damaging outflow wind gusts becoming the primary threat. Otherwise, look for VFR conditions to hold through the current package. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ008>010-013>015-018>020-317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...11  188 FXUS62 KTBW 221126 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 726 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid conditions continue through the weekend. - Drier air aloft today will lead to lower rain chances. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 724 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions will prevail outside of convection. Overall chances are on the lower side again today, but there will still be widely scattered storms around the region that generally shift inland through the afternoon and evening. A similar setup is forecast for Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Today will be very similar to yesterday, though with slightly less rain expected. With west to southwest flow, a few showers and storms over the Gulf in the morning could drift close to shore. Best chance for showers or storms will likely be later in the afternoon with sea breeze convergence inland and further east. The same pattern persists into Sunday, with the only caveat being a little extra moisture thanks to a boundary that will drift over north Florida. The boundary will enhance shower and storm activity over the NE Gulf with some of the showers and storms moving onshore over the nature coast. More typical afternoon showers along the interior will also be possible SUnday afternoon as the sea breeze pushes inland. Conditions will continue to be hot, though below heat advisory levels. A slight change in the pattern will arrive early next week with the flow transitioning more southeast. Dry air aloft will continue to keep rain chances on the low side Monday and Tuesday. Moisture begins to rebound Wednesday increasing rain chances through the end of the week. && .MARINE... Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Mostly quiet marine conditions expected through the weekend. A few isolated showers possible over the coastal waters early this morning. Winds continue to be out of the west, southwest mainly under 10 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Fire weather concerns remain minimal as humidity values remain above critical. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 79 89 79 / 10 20 50 10 FMY 93 78 94 78 / 20 0 20 10 GIF 95 75 93 75 / 20 10 40 10 SRQ 92 78 90 77 / 10 10 30 10 BKV 92 73 90 73 / 20 20 50 10 SPG 90 80 89 80 / 10 20 50 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$  197 FXUS63 KEAX 221127 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 627 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms possible this morning across eastern KS and far western Missouri. - Cooler temperatures expected this weekend. - 30 to 40% chance for showers/storms Sunday evening into Sunday night. - Temperatures should gradually warm through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Northwesterly flow aloft remains entrenched over the region between high amplitude ridging across the Rockies and western CONUS and troughing across the Great Lakes and into Appalachia. At the surface, a very weak boundary is analyzed near the northern edge of the Ozarks, with high pressure yielding mostly clear skies with light and variable winds. Convection is ongoing this morning across portions of central Nebraska, and this will slowly drift to the southeast with the mean cloud layer flow, likely weakening as it moves into eastern and northeastern Kansas. It is possible that this convection (albeit in a relatively weak form) could make its way into our CWA in far eastern KS toward the MO border by around 9 AM or so, moving off to the south (into the SGF CWA) by late morning/early afternoon, with clouds clearing behind it. With the CWA positioned between ridging to the west and troughing to the east northeast, a decent high temperature gradient is expected this afternoon, with highs across NE Missouri forecast to reach the lower 80s, with highs in the upper 80s south and southwest of the KC metro (mid 80s likely in the KC metro). On Sunday morning, an H5 50+ knot jet is progged to dig from NE Minnesota into southern Illinois on the western side of the trough across the NE CONUS. Meanwhile, a mid level vort max is projected to translate across NE/KS and into Missouri. This will help send a subtle reinforcing shot of marginally cooler and drier air, along with mid to high level cloud cover, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s (down from the mid to upper 80s) and dewpoints lowering a couple degrees. It will also bring a chance (20 to 30%) for some showers/storms to western portions of the CWA. As we head into early next week, the center of the H5 high that is currently near the Four Corners area migrates slightly to the southeast over SE New Mexico and into west Texas, with northwesterly flow aloft remaining in place over the CWA as troughing remains over the NE CONUS. This will result in gradually warming temperatures through the week and occasional low end (20 to 30%) chances for showers/storms as disturbances and vort maxes translate through the northwesterly flow on the northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A complex of showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across SE Nebraska into NE Kansas as of 11z this morning. The eastern edge of this may clip the terminals this morning, so have maintained a PROB30 for showers at the terminals between 12z and 15z this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period with light winds somewhat variable but generally out of the northeast. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMW AVIATION...BMW  213 FXUS63 KSGF 221127 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 627 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal risk for severe storms over southern portions of the area this afternoon and evening. Isolated 1 inch hail and 60 mph winds are the greatest threats. - Potential for locally heavy rainfall and flooding Sunday night into early Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 145 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Thunderstorm chances and potential risks today: Still quite a bit of model variability with respect to convection today, including coverage, probabilities, and instability. This lowers confidence and increases potential for noteworthy changes to the forecast today. Overall expecting shortwave energy (currently noted with convection over northern Nebraska) to move into the later this afternoon and evening. Given timing of arrival around peak heating, there is concern for enough instability for severe weather. However, model spread is pretty high with how the instability picture looks this afternoon. Looking at HREF SBCAPE probabilities of > 2,000 J/kg, values fall rapidly to 20-30% by mid to late afternoon as drier air moves in ahead of the shortwave. This dry air also seems to be diminishing convection as it moves toward the area. More confidence exists in seeing 25-30 kts of deep layer shear. Overall think the NBM 20-40% PoPs with a marginal SPC severe risk seems reasonable given the uncertainty. Looking at an isolated 1 inch hail and 60 mph wind threat. Otherwise look for highs to range from the mid 80s NE to the mid 90s (heat index values up to around 100) SW. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 145 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Sunday: Models hint at some remnant precip late tonight into Sunday morning, but the forecast is mostly dry at this time. Temperatures and heat index values Sunday look similar to today. Late Sunday into early Monday heavy rainfall and flooding threat: A strong upper ridge to the W will lead to relatively strong upper level flow from the NW while models now generally agree on a surface low over Oklahoma and 850mb trough from the northern plains to over the surface low. This surface low leads to a strong pressure gradient in the low levels, and a resulting SE LLJ. At the same time, an 850mb front will be stalled over the region (currently looking like the southwestern CWA, but limited confidence in location), with elevated instability above the front. This should result in convection in vicinity of the front. The strong S-SE low level flow counters the upper level flow to result in slow storm motions that are near parallel to the 850mb front, so also looking at potential for training storms. Moisture transport from the Gulf of America will be strong with the low level flow, resulting in PWAT values over 2 inches, as shown by multiple models, which is 150-175% of normal. These factors may lead to locally heavy rainfall and flooding, but many factors need to come together for this. Uncertainty does exist, including in the unusual situation of a surface low sitting over Oklahoma in late August, the placement of the 850mb front, the strength of the low level jet, and instability. Currently, the NBM shows 50-60% PoPs over the southwestern CWA and 30-50% elsewhere. Through the rest of next week, we will see some low end chances for showers and storms as we generally remain under NW flow aloft. Predictability will generally be low for any precip chances. The pattern also keeps a temperature gradient across the area, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s NE to the mid to upper 90s (along with heat index values in the upper 90s to mid 100s) SW. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 622 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 There is around a 30% chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, but confidence is quite limited until a potential incoming thunderstorm complex gets closer to the area. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Titus LONG TERM...Titus AVIATION...Titus  222 FXUS64 KJAN 221127 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 627 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous heat stress is expected across at western portions of the forecast area again today and over the southwest Sunday. - Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible late this afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 449 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Through Saturday: Although a weak frontal boundary will continue sagging through the CWA today, heat stress will remain the main concern in the short term over the western half of the CWA. In addition, there will also be the potential for isolated strong to severe storms late this afternoon and evening across the north. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis still showed our CWA on the eastern periphery of a large mid level high and just west of the base of a mid level trough that will continue to provide northwest flow aloft through tonight. The drier air in the wake of the weak cold front should limit daytime convection until late this afternoon and to the north. A disturbance within the northwest flow aloft will combine with daytime heating upstream and develop convection that will spread south into our northern zones by this evening. The convection will have the potential for isolated strong to severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Otherwise, temperatures will again top out in the upper 90s to lower 100s and combine with relatively high humidity to result in heat indices between 105-110F in the west where a Heat Advisory will remain in effect. The convection will taper off by midnight but the warm and humid conditions will continue through tonight. /22/ Sunday through next Saturday... A weak frontal boundary from the Mid Tennessee Valley Region will continue to gradually push southwards towards north MS early Sunday morning. As this boundary layer continues to slowly push southwards, the slight uptick of moisture and northwest flow will help focus scattered diurnally driven early morning showers and storms, mainly for areas across portions of north MS, portions of northwest MS, portions of southeast AR, and portions of northeast LA with local PoPs around 20-30%. A few strong storms with wind gusts up to 40 mph cannot be ruled out. Rain chances will start to fizzle out by Sunday afternoon leading to quiet conditions across our CWA through Sunday evening. Regarding the dangerous heat for Sunday, guidance continues to show a NW-SE oriented thermal gradient across the southeast CONUS. This thermal gradient will allow for afternoon highs in the upper 90s to low 100s across our entire forecast area. This combined with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will allow for heat index reading values to peak in the 105-110 degree range with the greatest heat stress over southwest portions of the forecast area. With that in mind, a Heat Advisory will likely be needed for Sunday. If a heat advisory is introduced for Sunday, original thinking is to include all of our northeast LA parishes, portions of south MS and southwest MS, portions of west MS and portions of central MS. Hot and humid conditions will continue across the area heading into the new work week. Aside from the gradual upticks in rain chances, there are still no strong signals for significant rainfall. All global model ensembles continue to point to dry anomalies. Heat index readings will gradually climb back into the 105-110 degree range across much of the area as we get closer to the mid week. Additional heat headlines/advisories will likely be needed as we get closer to the mid week. Given the continued vegetative stress, the forecast area will become more vulnerable to fire danger should wind/RH thresholds be met. As of now the weather pattern isn't supporting this, but all fire related interests should monitor closely. /CR/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 MVFR vsbys wl continue at GWO and GTR until 13Z before improving. Otherwise, VFR conditions wl prevail until after 22Z when another round of TSRA wl start affecting the nw TAF sites and then move in vcty of the cntrl TAF sites by 05Z before dissipating. VFR conditions wl then resume areawide through the end of the TAF period. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 100 74 98 74 / 0 20 10 30 Meridian 99 73 98 73 / 0 10 10 10 Vicksburg 100 74 98 74 / 0 10 10 10 Hattiesburg 98 74 99 74 / 0 0 10 10 Natchez 101 75 99 75 / 0 0 10 10 Greenville 101 74 97 74 / 20 40 10 40 Greenwood 99 72 96 72 / 10 40 10 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>064- 072. LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ 22/CR/22  281 FXUS61 KBTV 221129 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 729 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 259 AM EDT Saturday... No significant changes to the current forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 259 AM EDT Saturday... 1. A pair of systems will increase precipitation chances across northern New York and southeastern Vermont into the latter portion of the weekend. 2. Trending drier mid next week before showers arrive toward the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 259 AM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Today will mainly be dry and seasonable with chances for precipitation increasing later Sunday. A pair of systems will split our area bringing shower chances to portions of the area. The first of the two systems will be a weak coastal low along the coast of southern New England, which will track near Cape Cod and is expected to continue moving northeast out into the Gulf of Maine. Some showers may be possible in eastern Windsor and Orange Counties tonight, however, recent trends have suggested steadier precipitation associated with the coastal system will stay east of the Connecticut River. Any showers that do develop in southeastern Vermont will be light in nature. The second stronger system will be an approaching long wave trough that will track east from the Great Lakes region. The trough moves east into the St. Lawrence Valley later today into early Sunday, with scattered rounds of showers. The trough slowly tracks east through the day Sunday reaching Vermont by later Sunday into Sunday night. Some isolated thunder is possible with these showers, though instability is limited. Precipitation amounts will be light, generally below a half an inch. The higher amounts around a quarter inch will be in northern New York, primarily in the northern St. Lawrence Valley. The trough will pull away to the northeast on Monday. As the trough occludes and drifts northeast, the parent upper low will continue to keep showers chances around with wrap around cyclonic flow. Clouds and shower chances near the International Border and northern New York will continue through the day Monday with seasonable temperatures in the low to mid 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2: Ridging should dominate for Wednesday before it pushes to the east for the end of the week. An upper-level trough looks to build in Thursday and Friday and bring the chance for some showers. A weak northern-stream low should track from west to east out of the Great Lakes Region and into Quebec on during this time, bringing the chance for the showers. A low will try to develop off the Mid- Atlantic Coast and move northward into the region, but model guidance is very split on this. This would enhance rainfall late Friday into Saturday, but right now the rain reaching the region is not favored among the ensembles. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 12Z Sunday...Any lingering fog will lift before 13Z. VFR conditions will then prevail through this evening. A few showers should develop across northern New York and southern Vermont late tonight and a brief reduction to MVFR visibility will be possible. Ceilings will begin to decrease late tonight, with them possibly dropping into the MVFR range at MPV and SLK by 12Z. Winds will generally be southerly up to around 15 KT today, with the highest gusts at PBG and BTV. Winds lighten a little tonight, generally staying under 10 KT. Some LLWS is possible late tonight, especially at MSS. Outlook... Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR,with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Neiles DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Neiles AVIATION...Myskowski  261 FXUS64 KBRO 221128 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 628 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 625 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Hot and rain-free conditions will continue through late next week. - Moderate (level 2 of 4) to major risk (3 of 4) of heat-relatedimpacts through the period with peak afternoon heat indices generally between 105 to around 110 degrees. - The combination of low minimum relativity humidity values, dry fuels, and very hot temperatures could lead to the potential for rapid wildfire spread through the period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1038 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A 500 mb ridge will meander over the Four Corners region through the middle of next week. This will continue to provide strong subsidence across Deep South Texas with very hot and mainly rain-free conditions through forecast period. Daily high temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s to around 105 degrees, except near the coast. The combination of the very hot temperatures and elevated dewpoint temperatures will support heat indices generally between 105 to 110 degrees each afternoon. Heat indices may briefly reach 111+ at a few locations in the afternoon, but temperatures should remain just below Heat Advisory criteria each day. Widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) to Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk expected through the weekend and into the middle of next week. Some pockets of Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk will be possible by late next week. The combination of low minimum relativity humidity values, dry fuels, and very hot temperatures could lead to the potential for rapid wildfire spread through the period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are forecast to continue though the period. Light southeasterly winds are forecast to continue through the morning, with speeds and gusts increasing this afternoon. Light and variable winds are forecast tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1038 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A slightly enhanced pressure gradient over the western Gulf may produce Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions on the Laguna Madre at times. Otherwise, mariners can expect generally favorable conditions with moderate south to southeast winds and seas of 2 to 3 feet through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 100 79 98 79 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 104 75 103 75 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 106 78 105 78 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 106 76 105 76 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 90 80 89 81 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 98 77 97 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...63 LONG TERM....63 AVIATION...60-BE  288 FXUS66 KMTR 221129 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 429 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages continue through the next week - Warm and dry conditions persist above 1000 feet && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 (Today and tonight) The skies are generally clear for now with patches of stratus in favored locations and some high level clouds continuing to stream across the interior. Offshore, a blob of cooler air lurks offshore, evidenced by a robust stratus deck set up off the North Bay and the San Mateo Peninsula. Through the rest of the night, this stratus deck is expected to expand to the coastal areas and build inland through the post-sunrise hours when the stratus will begin to gradually clear out. The region remains under the influence of the balance between a cutoff low located around 200 miles west of Cape Blanco along the southern coast of Oregon, and an upper level ridge with an axis extending along the crest of the Rocky Mountains. Altogether this pattern will result in temperatures which are near to slightly below the seasonal averages, with highs today ranging from the upper 70s to the lower 90s in the inland valleys, the middle 90s into the triple digits for the warmest interior spots, especially the southern tier of Monterey County, across the 70s for areas near the Bays, and the 60s for areas along the Pacific coast. The marine layer remains relatively stable at around 1000-1500 feet, with warm and dry conditions persisting above the marine layer inversion as relative humidity values reach the 10-30% range. Winds remain relatively light and develop in an onshore flow pattern, with wind gusts reaching 20 to 30 miles per hour along the coast, through favored gaps and passes, and within the northern Salinas Valley. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 (Sunday through Friday) More of the same pattern is anticipated for the rest of the week's forecast, with a generally southwesterly upper level flow over the region as the series of eastern Pacific troughs continues to balance the ridge over the Desert Southwest. High temperatures are expected to hover around the upper 70s to the lower 90s for the inland valleys and the middle 60s to upper 70s near the Bays, with a subtle drop in the temperatures in the early part of next week before the ridge tries to build back towards the west. As noted by the previous forecaster, a couple of broad low pressure areas to the south of Baja California could develop into tropical systems sometime within the 7-day outlook, and how those systems interact with the ridge is highly uncertain at this time. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 425 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Currently a mixed bag of LIFR-VFR with both advective and radiative stratus out there. Moderate confidence that all terminals will become sub-VFR this morning with a feed of stratus coming in from the coast and radiative stratus expanding. VFR is expected by the afternoon and may be achieved earlier than normal due to the patchy nature of stratus. Diurnal winds will prevail. Similar forecast on tap tonight with ceilings on the cusp of IFR/MVFR returning late. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. Moderate confidence on a ceiling developing this morning (likely on the cusp of IFR/MVFR); this will happen either via a push of stratus from the northwest that is 10 miles off the coast or stratus across the bay at OAK that is expanding. Diurnal winds will prevail. SFO Bridge Approach...The San Mateo Bridge Approach will likely stay VFR longer than the terminal this morning; however, stratus is surrounding it and continuing to expand. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently IFR with southwesterly flow at MRY and LIFR with westerly flow at SNS. MRY is expected to further deteriorate to LIFR with conditions improving at both terminals by 16Z. IFR stratus will stick close to the coast this afternoon with another return to IFR conditions this evening. Diurnal winds will prevail. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 425 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes will bring widespread hazardous conditions for small craft this afternoon and evening. Conditions will slowly improve as northwesterly breezes diminish to become moderate to fresh Sunday and into next week. Slight to moderate seas will prevail. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10- 60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  318 FXUS63 KDLH 221130 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 630 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers exiting by early this morning. Portions of the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin could see a few sprinkles from late this morning through early evening. - Otherwise, dry and sunny for this weekend with lower dewpoints and seasonal high temperatures. Breezy northwest winds for today. - Chilly Saturday and Sunday nights with low temperatures in the 40s and possibly upper 30s in the typical cold spots. No frost is forecast at this time. - The next chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms is early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Today - Sunday: A few remnant rain showers in north-central WI exit to the east by early this morning as a cold front finishes moving through the Northland. Additional accumulation of around 0.1-0.2" or less expected. The rest of this weekend shapes up to be largely dry as northwest flow aloft sets up along with surface high pressure. We may be able to squeeze out a few sprinkles in the MN Arrowhead and portions of northwest WI later this morning through early evening with post-cold front cold-air advection (CAA). A drier low-level airmass in place may keep most of this precipitation in the form of virga rather than precipitation actually reaching the ground. Regardless, measurable precipitation is not forecast. Winds will also be gusty out of the northwest today up to 20-25 mph before becoming light to calm tonight and mostly light on Sunday. High temperatures remain near normal in the 69-78 F range for most of the Northland this weekend. The drier airmass, lighter winds, and mostly clear skies Saturday night and Sunday night will result in chillier low temperatures in the low to upper 40s across much of the Northland. The typical cold spots will likely even touch the upper-30s, though frost is currently not expected. Monday - Wednesday: Shortwave ridging aloft on Monday keeps the Northland dry most of the day. However, an upper-level cut-off low and its attendant surface low traversing the Canadian Prairies this weekend into Monday eventually works its way into and through portions of the Upper Midwest for Monday night into Wednesday, bringing periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Initial warm-frontal showers/storms move into northeast Minnesota for Monday night, then the warm sector of the surface low sets up over portions of the Northland daytime Tuesday, and then the cold front moves through the area from west to east late Tuesday through Tuesday night before exiting the area on Wednesday as the vertically stacked low pressure moves into the Great Lakes. While there is likely to still be some slight adjustments in timing of this system, if the warm sector can set up over the Northland on daytime Tuesday in conjunction with peak heating, there is a non-zero chance that we could see some of the scattered storms become strong to severe ahead of the cold front Tuesday afternoon and evening as instability maximizes along with ample 0-6 km bulk shear of 30-40 knots. The picture for this will become clearer as we get into early next week and the forecast mesoscale features come into better focus. Expect scattered shower and non-severe storm chances to linger into Wednesday as cyclonic flow sets up over the region behind the departing low pressure. With rainfall likely to be scattered with this weather system, precipitation could be hit or miss for portions of the area. The fairly progressive nature of this system also limits residence time and heavy rainfall potential. NBM probabilities of 0.25" or greater Monday night through Wednesday currently range from 20-30% in the Brainerd Lakes into I-35 corridor, to 50-80% in much of the Arrowhead and northern MN, highest near the International Border. Probabilities in much of northwest WI range from 30-60%. Probabilities for >1" fall off substantially to effectively less than 20% across the Northland, with potential likely to be localized to where several thunderstorms move over a given location. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer early next week with highs in the 70s to low-80s Monday through Wednesday and even a few spots of mid-80s on Tuesday, while lows Monday night and Tuesday night fall into the upper 40s to 50s. Late Next Week: The second half of the upcoming work week looks to remain in northwest flow aloft, with surface high pressure returning and bringing drier conditions again as precipitation chances Thursday and Friday remain at 15% or less. Global ensemble guidance diverges regarding the mid- and upper-level pattern going into next weekend, leading to lower confidence in the forecast beyond late next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 631 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Mainly clear skies have set up early this morning along with light northwest winds. Patchy dense fog is present in northwest Wisconsin, including HYR, but is expected to dissipate towards 13-14Z as daytime mixing starts up. Gusty northwesterly winds increase this morning through early evening, with gusts to around 20-25 kts along with some diurnal cumulus developing late this morning through early evening at most terminals. Skies clear out under high pressure for tonight into early Sunday as winds become calm to light. The fog signal for tonight/early tomorrow looks a bit better, so have included mention of IFR to LIFR fog at HIB/BRD/HYR. Dense fog and VLIFR ceilings/visibility are not out of the question, but have held off on that mention in this set of TAFs. Probabilities for visibilities of 1 mile or less in fog at INL/DLH are lower, generally 10-20% chances for now, but could increase. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 224 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Northwest winds of 5 to 15 kts are expected today, with daytime gusts of 15-20 kts for the North Shore to Twin Ports and in the Outer Apostles to Saxon Harbor. Winds become northerly tonight into early Sunday morning at 15 kts or less for most except up to 20 kts near Grand Portage. Winds become light and variable for the remainder of Sunday into Sunday night before becoming light out of the east to northeast on Monday. No thunderstorms are expected until at least late Monday night. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 224 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A secondary cold front exiting northwest Wisconsin early this morning will lead to an end of isolated showers in north-central Wisconsin prior to sunrise. Breezy northwesterly flow and drier air arrives behind the front for today. Expect afternoon RH today to dip to 30-45% range, with some locally lower values possible in the I-35 corridor east into the northwest Wisconsin Pine Barrens. This will be accompanied by late morning through early evening wind gusts up to 20 mph, locally to 25 mph. Min RH on Sunday drops slightly lower to 30-40% for most areas, with potential for the northwest Wisconsin Pine Barrens to touch the mid to upper-20s with peak afternoon mixing. Winds will be lighter out of the North on Sunday, though a few gusts to 10-15 mph are possible in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin during the day. Fairly dry again with 30-45% min RH on Monday before moisture increases Monday night through Wednesday as a low pressure system approaches and moves through the area. There will be scattered shower and thunderstorm chances for Mondaynight through Tuesday, with some wrap around showers/general thunderstorms chances lingering into Wednesday. Widespread, heavy rainfall is not anticipated so appreciable drought relief is not expected. Some spots that see repeated thunderstorms move overhead early next week could pick up locally higher amounts in excess of an inch, but this would be very localized at best and with a less than 20% chance of occurring. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rothstein AVIATION...Rothstein MARINE...Rothstein FIRE WEATHER...Rothstein  485 FXUS62 KCHS 221131 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 731 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation section updated to represent 12Z forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Increased showers and storms will possible through today capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Increased showers and storms will possible through today capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. A rather large upper trough centered over the Great Lakes will continue its slow drift east today into Sunday as several embedded shortwaves pivot through the broader flow. At the surface our slow moving front will encroach on the coastal areas by this afternoon and likely be the focus for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The first shortwave is currently moving across the area right now will some scattered showers and storms occurring across the coastal areas and offshore waters. This shortwave should move out of the area by daybreak setting the stage for the afternoon. The final shortwave should swing into the area by mid-afternoon resulting in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms likely beginning east of I-95 and closer to the coastline than yesterday. Overall severe threat looks minimal with these storms with rather poor surface heating (high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s) coupled with rather deep moist profiles with PWATs approaching 2.1 to 2.2 inches. While a strong wind gust cannot be ruled out the overall potential should be rather muted compared to say yesterday. The bigger issue may become heavy rainfall. Given the aforementioned moisture profiles, coupled with weak deep layer flow, storms will be rather efficient rain producers and some localized heavy rainfall certainly cannot be ruled out. This is backed by some of the high-res ensemble guidance which supports some 3 hourly totals in the 2 to 4 inch range. For most of the area these totals won't be too much of an issue, there could be a focus along and near the coastal cities that tend to not handle heavy rain rates as well as interior areas. We will certainly have to see how things go this afternoon, but would not be surprised if a few spots might see some localized minor flooding. Sunday Onward: The aforementioned upper trough will finally move far enough east to usher in some drier air into the area by Sunday into Monday. With drier air in place and the surface boundary pushed offshore, rain chances should remain low through Monday. However, moisture should begin to recover starting Tuesday and into the middle of the week with a return to more typical summertime pattern setting up. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 22/06z TAFs: A narrow band of IFR to LIFR ceilings have developed along the immediate coastline and will impact JZI for the next hour or two before VFR conditions return area wide. Winds will be light out of the southwest throughout the day. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop along the coastline this afternoon possibly resulting in temporary reductions at all area terminals. Storms look most likely near CHS/JZI before subsiding during the early evening. VFR conditions should return overnight with light southwesterly winds. Extended Aviation Outlook: Thunderstorms will again be a concern Saturday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. && .MARINE... Today through Thursday: Marine conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. A fairly typical summertime pattern on tap. Generally expect south to southwest winds averaging in the 10-15 knot range with gusts to 20 kt at times and seas 2 to 3 feet. Any showers or thunderstorms that move over the waters have the potentialto bring higher wind gusts and frequent lightning. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: August 24: KCHS: 76/2010 KCXM: 80/1975 August 25: KCHS: 77/1982 August 27: KCHS: 78/2011 August 28: KCHS: 77/2020 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Black/ETM  540 FXUS63 KBIS 221133 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 633 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periodic low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms late tonight through Monday. - A few storms may be strong to severe in southwest and south central North Dakota during the day Sunday, far western North Dakota Sunday night, and central and eastern North Dakota on Monday. - Temperatures are favored to remain near to slightly above normal through next week, with highs mostly in the 80s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The forecast for today remains on track. Quiet weather will prevail under surface high pressure. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 413 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A highly-amplified upper level wave pattern lies over North America early this morning, with a ridge axis along the Rockies and a trough axis from Hudson Bay to the Southern Appalachian Mountains. Surface high pressure is centered over southeast Saskatchewan, which is keeping the local weather very quiet. The surface high will morph into an elongated ridge and slide over the Red River Valley by the end of the day as the upper ridge axis begins to pivot off the Northern Rockies. Quiet weather will continue through the daytime hours, with high temperatures this afternoon ranging from the mid 70s northeast to mid 80s southwest. A mid level shortwave will eject off the Northern Rockies by this evening, cutting through the ridge axis. The increasing downstream warm-air advection, moisture transport, isentropic lift, etc. could generate showers and thunderstorms in eastern Montana tonight, spreading into western North Dakota early Sunday morning. MUCAPE could exceed 1000 J/kg with effective bulk shear near 30 kts in the southwest Sunday morning, but convection should remain elevated, and most CAMs are only simulating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The 00Z NAMnest is an outlier with a couple of clusters of strong to severe storms with bowing segments in the southwest Sunday morning and into the afternoon. Proximity model soundings at Dickinson do show higher RH at the base of the EML and higher equilibrium levels in the NAMnest, but its hodographs could best be described as chaotic. Therefore, the risk for severe weather Sunday morning into the early afternoon is very low, but not zero. This could change later Sunday afternoon as diurnal heating opens the potential for surface or mixed-layer based convection. However: 1) there is high confidence in a strong capping inversion above the boundary layer, 2) a moist southeasterly surface flow is not conducive to efficient boundary layer mixing, and 3) mid level clouds and/or anvil shading from morning convection could limit diurnal heating to some extent. CAMs do show an increased probability in stronger convection over south central North Dakota mid to late Sunday afternoon along the eastern gradient of the buoyancy pool, where CIN may be relatively weaker. Still looking at a CAPE/ shear parameter space supportive of only marginally severe storms though. But regardless of intensity, there are still medium chances (30 to 60 percent) for showers and thunderstorms across much of western and central North Dakota Sunday afternoon and evening as the shortwave moves through. Increased confidence in the aforementioned southeasterly flow and cloud cover has cooled the high temperature forecast into the lower and mid 80s for all but far southwest North Dakota on Sunday. By Sunday night, a much more potent shortwave/upper low will be ejecting off the Canadian Rockies into the southern prairie provinces. Clusters of thunderstorms forming off the Montana Rockies late Sunday afternoon could cross into western North Dakota Sunday night before dissipating. If this convection is maintained, it could be strong to severe as it moves into a higher buoyancy air mass with increasing shear. The 06Z HRRR appears to show a reasonable worst-case scenario with a broken line of strong to severe storms extending from the Canadian to South Dakota borders entering the state after 10 PM CDT. Simulated surface winds gusts in the 06Z HRRR are much lower in western North Dakota though than they are in eastern Montana earlier in the evening. The thunderstorm forecast on Monday remains uncertain and may end up highly dependent on the eastward propagation of the occluded front attendant to the potent Canadian upper low. Both CAPE (~2000 J/kg) and shear (~35 kts) directly ahead of the front are projected to be sufficient for severe storms. But very few ensemble members are generating any convection along the front, likely due to an absence of mid to upper level forcing. Broad mid level height falls do eventually spread into northern North Dakota, but that may lag behind the surface front. The latest NBM has reduced PoPs to only 20 to 30 percent Monday afternoon and evening, and kept mentionable PoPs east of Highway 83. But location uncertainty in the surface front at 00Z Monday evening ranges from as far west as Minot to Dickinson (NAM) to as far east as Devils Lake to Jamestown (a small subset of GEFS members). The progression of the front is also likely to play a role in high temperatures on Monday. Strong mixing in the dry post-frontal air mass could allow temperatures to approach 90 in southwest and south central North Dakota, with at least lower 80s elsewhere. This is assuming a slightly quicker frontal progression, which ensembles do tilt towards. Ensemble guidance shows the Canadian low digging southeastward on Tuesday, but with variance in its trajectory. That uncertainty may dictate how much temperatures cool off on Tuesday, but the NBM has trended slightly warmer than previous iterations with highs in the mid/upper 70s north to lower/mid 80s south. Regardless, Tuesday is likely to be a windier day, with northwest winds gusting as high as 35 mph. There could also be some diurnally-driven showers across the north Tuesday afternoon. Ensembles favor a return to northwest flow between an eastern CONUS trough and western CONUS ridge for the second half of next week, with uncertainty on when or if the ridge might get pushed eastward. Ensemble clusters that are more heavily ECMWF-weighted are much more progressive in breaking down the ridge, while some GEFS-heavy clusters keep the ridge to our west into next weekend. The NBM broadly maintains near average temperatures through the end of next week, but is starting to trend slightly above average in southwest and south central North Dakota considering that average temperatures themselves are now beginning to cool at this time of year. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. A few showers or thunderstorms could begin moving into far western North Dakota late tonight, but are unlikely to reach KXWA or KDIK until after 12Z Sunday. Winds will remain light and variable in central North Dakota while becoming southeast around 10 kts in western North Dakota this afternoon. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...Hollan AVIATION...Hollan  539 FXUS66 KHNX 221133 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 433 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .UPDATE... Updated Aviation Section. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Triple digit heat continues for San Joaquin Valley and Mojave Desert. 2. Monsoonal moisture brings 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada this afternoon. 3. 20-40% probability for extreme heat ending next week and starting September. && .DISCUSSION... Today's temperatures ranged from average to 5 degrees above, with the San Joaquin River serving as the invisible dividing line from north to south respectively. The latest National Blend of Models (NBM) run at 1Z Saturday indicates more or less the same will continue this weekend into the start of next week, with moderate to high (>50%) probability for triple digit afternoon highs staying south of the San Joaquin River. Likewise, afternoon highs above 105 in the Mojave Desert will be confined below 2,500 feet elevation. Minor to Moderate risk of heat illness continues to be the main weather threat for the region. Beyond central California, an upper level trough just off the Pacific Northwest coast will track inland overnight into Saturday morning. For us, this will provide just enough moisture transport from the south- southwest for thunderstorms to enter back into the forecast. As of the last NBM run, there is a 10-15% probability of afternoon thunderstorms along the Sierra Nevada crest down to 6,000 feet Saturday. By Sunday, as the upper level trough moves deeper into Canada, upper level flow returns to more benign westerlies that will bring thunderstorm probabilities back down to <10%. Looking towards the end of August, the Climate Prediction Center continues to highlight a higher likelihood of above average temperatures (50-70% probability) in the 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook, as well as a slight risk (20-40% probability) of extreme heat across our area. Meanwhile, the Weather Prediction Center continues to show about average temperatures in their Day 3-7 forecasts. Whether extreme heat is waiting for us in September remain to be seen in the coming discussions. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevailing for the next 24 hours. 10-20% probability of afternoon thunderstorms from 18Z Saturday to 3Z Sunday along the Sierra Nevada crest down to 6,000 feet elevation. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public...ND aviation....EW weather.gov/hanford  585 FXUS61 KOKX 221135 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 735 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rounds of showers this weekend, possible thunderstorms. Marginal severe risk Sunday into Sunday evening. 2) After possible lingering showers Monday, prolonged stretch of mainly dry weather next week Monday night though midweek. Temperatures trend from below normal to closer to normal. 3) Chances for showers and thunderstorm return towards the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Rounds of showers this weekend, possible thunderstorms. Marginal severe risk Sunday into Sunday evening. The weather pattern taking shape for this weekend is unsettled featuring cyclonic flow aloft and surface low pressure not too far away from the local area. Deep shear present much of the time for the area near 30-35 kt. 500mb forecast model charts indicate a faster decline of heights tonight through the rest of the weekend. Strong shortwave moves into Great Lakes today and then moves southeast of the Great Lakes tonight into early Monday. At the surface, behind one wave of low pressure along a front, another low pressure wave approaches late tonight. The wave of low pressure also passes northeast of the region early Sunday. While model PWATs indicate near 2 inches with the wave of low pressure, the pattern is progressive and convective elements are expected to exhibit a sufficient translational speed to mitigate flooding potential. Also related to this is where the higher chances of thunderstorms are forecast which for tonight is more across parts of Long Island where flash flood guidance is higher. Overall, expect any flooding to stay minor nuisance within urban, low-lying and poor drainage areas. However, the trough of low pressure will still be near the area. This will be an associated cold front moving through the area Sunday but weakening and dissipating Sunday night. Dewpoints will be trending higher and the air will be more humid. Despite this, PWATs are actually decreasing Sunday into Sunday night with relatively more shear compared to the previous day. CAPE will be limited with all the clouds and shower activity before the cold front moves in. Still though in this low CAPE high shear environment, a thunderstorm could quickly mature and become strong with a quick downburst of wind. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for much of the area Sunday into Sunday evening. The limiting factor will be the decreasing moisture in the atmosphere which will not allow for much expansion of convection and limit its coverage. .KEY MESSAGE 2... After possible lingering showers Monday, prolonged stretch of mainly dry weather next week Monday night though midweek. Temperatures trend from below normal Monday through Tuesday to closer to normal Tuesday night through Wednesday. Still have quite a bit of cyclonic flow aloft Monday with deep trough cutoff low making its way across the Northeast. The center of the cutoff upper level low is well north of the local area. Another weak cold front moves across Monday night but will not have much moisture associated with it. The POPs will be pretty low with this front and a lot of locations may very well end up staying dry. Models coherent on an area of positive vorticity maxima moving into the local region Monday morning into Monday afternoon. While there is a lot of westerly flow, models are struggling to depict much if any precipitation and why the national blend of models is dry. However, the cyclonic flow aloft and positive vorticity advection will present strong forcing for more clouds and some shower or thunderstorm activity. Coverage only isolated to widely scattered for any showers and thunderstorms. More height rises seen in the mid levels Monday night through midweek. A pattern change is evident within the forecast models of a transition from cyclonic cutoff low to quasi-zonal flow. At the surface, after the cold front Monday night, another cold front moves across Tuesday night, followed by weak high pressure heading into the middle of the week. Dry conditions are expected to prevail with more westerly flow getting established within the atmosphere. .KEY MESSAGE 3... The models are forecasting the approach of another frontal system from the west along with an upper level trough towards the latter part of next week. This will make for a return to a more unsettled weather pattern. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low pressure offshore drifts away from the terminals this morning. Another wave of low pressure slowly approaches from the south today into tonight. Eastern terminals will be primarily MVFR, with most terminals going to MVFR over the next few hours, with the exception being KSWF. Expect borderline MVFR/VFR through late this afternoon. Latest trends have KSWF remaining VFR through today. PROB30 for -RA during this afternoon for most terminals, with northern most terminals staying dry. Any VFR conditions give way to MVFR ceilings after 00z Sunday, along with some IFR ceilings increasingly likely towards and after 06z Sunday. Light winds anywhere from N to E through midday with winds under 10kt for today. The winds will be light, mainly at or under 5 kt tonight. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... AMD possible with borderline VFR/MVFR cigs today, and falling flight cats tonight. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Sunday: A chance of showers, especially north of the city terminals. Possible thunderstorms. IFR early, gives way to MVFR, with primarily VFR later in the day. Monday: Mainly VFR, brief sub VFR conditions possible in an isolated thunderstorm. Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Pressure gradient remains relatively weak through the forecast period. Conditions on the forecast marine zones stay below SCA thresholds. Rip Currents: The rip current risk with very light winds today looks to be overall low. With increasing southerly winds Sunday, more of a moderate rip current risk is expected. The swell will still have southerly and easterly components. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...JE MARINE...JM  561 FXUS64 KHUN 221134 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 634 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 358 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - There is a low to medium chance of patchy, dense fog early this morning. - A few thunderstorms may impact the western portion of north AL late this afternoon/early this evening. Brief strong wind gusts could accompany the most intense cells. - There are low to medium chances of thunderstorms for much of next week. However, timing and impact confidence remains low at this time. && .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Scattered high-level convective debris clouds (originating from convection yesterday evening along the central Gulf Coast) will continue to spread northeastward across the TN Valley early this morning. However, due to the translucent nature of the clouds, conditions will remain favorable for radiational cooling as calm winds will exist within a weakening dome of high pressure centered to our north. Thus, we expect temperatures to fall a few more degrees from current readings, with lows in the m-u 60s. Although patchy, locally dense fog has sporadically developed in some of our normally fog-prone locations, this has not yet become sufficiently widespread for the issuance of an advisory. Well to our northwest, a weakening complex of thunderstorms will continue to progress south-southeastward across eastern IL early this morning (in advance of a reinforcing cold front entering the western Great Lakes and Mid-MS Valley), with additional clusters of convection in progress from central NE southward into OK. As the cold front advances further southeastward today, renewed development of thunderstorms is expected by early this afternoon with greatest concentration from the OH Valley southeastward into the central/southern Appalachians (where synoptic scale forcing for ascent will be stronger) and from the Ozarks southeastward into northern MS (where the front may intercept a mesoscale boundary from convective complexes across the central Plains this morning, forcing the development of a new MCS). Although isolated convective cells may evolve across central/western parts of KY/TN this afternoon (in the vicinity of the front), 0Z CAMs suggest a lower spatial coverage in this region (perhaps due to weaker lift and fairly dry profiles with PWATs in the 1.2-1.4" range). Thus, it appears as if our main concern for thunderstorms will be related to eastward- propagating outflow from a loosely organized MCS dropping southeastward into MS (and should be confined to the southwestern portion of the forecast area between 22Z and 2Z, at which point convection should weaken with the onset of nocturnal cooling). With MLCAPE expected to reach 1000-1500 J/kg late this afternoon as NW flow aloft begins to strengthen (due to an amplifying trough over the Great Lakes), a few strong wind gusts (up to 40-50 MPH) could occur with the most significant cells. Otherwise, abundant sunshine will allow temps to reach the l-m 90s for most of the valley this afternoon, as dewpoints mix down into the lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 751 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Dry weather with seasonal temperatures are foreseen on Sunday with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 as high pressure builds south from the Upper Midwest into the OH and TN valleys. Overnight lows will be on the cool side with lower to middle 60s. NW flow at 5h will persist into Monday, with a low to mid level Theta-E gradient and convergence zone located across IA through MO and AR. This will be the genesis region of clusters of showers and thunderstorms which will likely be elevated/higher based as they reach our area on Monday, when we have low chances in the forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 751 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 In the extended forecast, we will get a break from the extreme heat conditions, however in exchange for that, we will be stuck in an unsettled pattern. We will start off with the pattern of an upper level low up in Quebec and the far NE U.S with an amplified ridge stretching from the southern Rockies up through the Northern Plains. On the back side of the ridge, a smaller upper-level low in Manitoba will try to be the driving force for a pattern change. As that smaller low slides SE into the Upper Great Lakes mid-week, the ridge will be dampened enough for it to round the ridge. This pattern will keep us in a northwesterly flow through the week. Embedded in this flow will be shortwaves that will swing through the TN Valley, keeping daily rain chances in. Right now it looks like there is a chance for an MCS to drop through on Tuesday, then again Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Will keep an eye on trends for specific hazards and timing, but for now will stick with NBM POPs. Daytime highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows around 70 degrees. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 There have been no significant changes to previous aviation forecast reasoning, with minor vsby reductions in BR/FG possible for about the first hour of the valid TAF period. With a drier profile in place today, we expect mostly sunny skies with only a few Cu beneath a sct layer of Ac. Lgt NW flow (~5 kts) will prevail for much of the day, with winds expected to veer to the north and strengthen this evening as a reinforcing cold front begins to shift southward thru the TN Valley. Although a few low- topped SHRA may evolve along the front region-wide this evening, chances for TSRA will be slightly higher at MSL (due to a more organized complex of convection tracking southeastward into northern MS). Regardless, precip chances are too low to mention in either TAF attm. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...70/DD SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM...JMS AVIATION...70/DD  560 FXUS64 KMRX 221134 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 734 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 728 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - This afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected in Northeast Tennessee, Southwest Virginia and the East Tennessee Mountains. - Sunday and Monday will be dry with rain chances returning midweek. && .UPDATE... Issued at 728 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Published a small update a brief bit ago to add fog into the early morning sunrise period and to expand the area of low rain and storm chances for later this afternoon and early evening after seeing the new day 1 forecast from the Storm Prediction Center. Coverage south of Interstate 40 is likely to be very isolated, if anything occurs at all, but cannot rule out the chance for a strong to severe wind gust given the dry air aloft. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 In the upper levels, a trough is over the Ohio Valley, extending down to Florida. At the surface, a stationary boundary is over North Georgia. Showers and storms have mostly dissipated for the rest of the night. In the early morning hours, clearing skies will lead to fog development near bodies of water and low-lying areas. Patchy dense fog will be possible in the early morning hours. A cold front will approach the region this afternoon and evening, bringing isolated to scattered showers and storms in Northeast Tennessee, Southwest Virginia and the East Tennessee Mountains. Elsewhere, will be mostly dry but some isolated activity will be possible. Some of the CAMs have come in wetter for today this cycle than last cycle, I think the timing of the cold front is lining up better with max heating. A few strong storms, possibly even severe can't be ruled out. The front will move through this evening bringing cooler temps and lower dew points tonight and tomorrow. Sunday dew points will be in the 60s and highs will be in the 80s (Chattanooga area may hit 90). Sunday and Monday will be dry with high pressure at the surface. The upper level pattern will be about the same with a deep trough on the East Coast and a ridge centered over the Rockies. The NBM has low rain chances Tuesday increasing to 30-40% chances by Wednesday. The trough will be centered over the Ohio Valley again by midweek with at least one shortwave rotating through the pattern Wednesday night or Thursday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 728 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Areas of patchy dense fog this morning will clear up in the next 1 to 2 hours. After that, VFR conditions across the region. A low chance for an isolated TS later today, carrying PROB30s at all 3 TAF sites though it is more likely to occur at KTRI where storms are more likely to form later today. Outside of storms, a few low wind gusts eclipsing 10 to 15 mph is possible in the afternoon, but generally light winds today. Passage of a cold front tonight lowers confidence for another round of fog/low clouds post 06z tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 68 90 64 / 0 20 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 65 86 62 / 20 30 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 90 63 86 60 / 20 30 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 62 81 56 / 40 40 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Wellington DISCUSSION...McD AVIATION...Wellington  611 FXUS61 KCTP 221136 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 736 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SPC expanded the MRGL RIsk for SVR TSRA areas today (Western half of the CWA) and for tomorrow (approx 90 percent of the CWA, except for the Southern Tier of the state). && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Upper level low pressure swinging SE from the upper Glakes to southern Ontario will lead to high temps trending cooler by a few to several degrees each day through Monday along with periods of showers and isolated to scattered gusty thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Upper level low pressure swinging SE from the upper Glakes to southern Ontario will lead to high temps trending cooler by a few to several degrees each day through Monday along with periods of showers and isolated to scattered gusty thunderstorms. Significant amplification of a longwave trough will occur over the next several days across the Glakes, Mid Atlantic region and Central Appalachian with 500 mb height falls of 60-100 meters and mean 850-700 mb layer temps of around 6 deg C from this evening to Monday morning. Abundant sunshine expected across the CWA North and West of the Lower Susq Valley with max temps this afternoon generally between 75-80F. The initial lead shortwave and right entrance region of a 65 kt upper level jet trailing a zone of very sharp upper diffluence over the western 1/3 of PA late today/early tonight will support development of scattered strong to severe TSRA across the western 1/3 to 1/2 of our CWA with the likely evolution/upscale growth of multicell clusters into a bkn line of TSRA with its axis near the RT 219 corridor between 00Z and 03Z Sunday where 0-1KM EHI will be in the 1-1.5 M2/S2 range and 0-3 KM Bulk shear will be average 20-25 KTS with some pockets just above 30 kts across the NW Mtns near KBFD at 03Z Sunday. HREF MU CAPE Values do drop off fairly quickly from their late afternoon/early evening peak of 1200-1500 J/KG across western PA, and the severe threat will be diminished by 02z across the Mtns of Western PA. The eastern half of PA will get the gradually weakening convection later this evening/overnight. For Sunday, the best larger scale/deep layer cooling aloft will occur across the eastern half of the state and that will be the focus for the SVR threat. MU CAPE will be lower by around 500 J/KG but deep layer swrly shear will be 35-40 kts across our eastern CWA. Therefore, SPC's MRGL risk covers the better threat for gusty winds with the storms across the eastern half of PA on Sunday with some isolated occurrences of pea to marble size hail in the taller storms Sunday. The cyclonic flow may keep showers downwind of Lake Erie into Monday. Daytime highs will be near to slightly below the historical average for late August, making it feel more like mid September especially Sunday into Monday. SPC trimmed the MRGL back a bit to the west on Saturday, which should feature early day clouds and a few showers spreading from SE to NW during the day. Drier/less humid conditions are likely to prevail during the first half of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Highly variable cigs and vsbys for the mid to late morning in radiational/valley fog regime with vsbys ranging from 1/4SM to 2SM+ in just a few miles. In any event, all TAF sites in Central and Western PA will be MVFR or better by 14Z today, while KLNS may stay MVFR w/respect to CIGS for the entire daylight hours today. While VFR in a SCT/BKN stratocu cloud deck will be the prevailing conditions today, some isolated showers are possible in the afternoon. Chances for this are highest at MDT and LNS with spotty morning activity possible as well. This activity may lead to bounces between VFR and MVFR throughout the day tomorrow in the southeast, with greater restrictions more likely at LNS. This showery activity will be ahead of a cluster of storms moving through in the evening/early night along and ahead of a cold front. Have updated PROB30s for -TSRA to reflect most confident timing at the current moment. HREF ensemble and NBM trending later in storm timing in their most recent runs. Should a strong core cross paths with an airfield, brief IFR restrictions are possible. Outlook... Sun...Restrictions possible, mainly NW in SHRA. Improvement elsewhere. Mon-Wed...Patchy morning fog, otherwise mainly VFR conditions return early next week. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Steinbugl KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Steinbugl DISCUSSION...Lambert/Steinbugl AVIATION...Lambert/Lambrech  645 FXUS63 KGRB 221136 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 636 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and storms (30-50% chance) expected over north-central to eastern WI, mainly in the afternoon. A strong storm with gusty winds and hail is possible. - Dry weather returns Sunday and Monday, with a period of unsettled weather arriving for the middle of next week. - Slightly below normal temps this weekend, then a return to near normal readings for most of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 126 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 This Weekend...Recent rainfall, mostly clear skies and light winds has led to some patchy ground fog development, especially across northern WI. Some clouds moving in should help keep the fog in check, but at least some patchy fog will continue early this morning, then burn off after sunrise. Northwest, cyclonic flow will prevail across the Great Lakes through the weekend with a couple shortwaves moving with this flow bringing chances for a few showers and storms. The first weak shortwave arrives this morning, bringing a stray shower or sprinkle across far northern WI. A second shortwave will dive across northeast WI this afternoon, bringing isolated to scattered showers and storms (20-50% chance) mainly to far northern and eastern WI. While weak deep layer shear (under ~25 kts) will limit overall organization of the storms and the severe threat, SBCAPE of up to ~1200 J/kg, inverted-V soundings and very steep low-level lapse rates will promote some gustier winds and small hail in the stronger showers/storms. Northwest winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph this morning and afternoon. Surface high pressure and drier air will keep the area dry tonight into Sunday. Northwest winds will be a little lighter on Sunday, but still gust to 20 mph. Next Week...Dry weather continues on Monday, then another shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region late Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing the next chance (40-65%) for showers and thunderstorms. Instability appears modest with this mid-week feature, keeping severe probabilities low. Temperatures...Temps this weekend will dip a little below normal as northwest flow prevails, with highs mainly in the 70s to near 80 (with a few upper 60s over far northern WI on Sunday). A couple chilly nights are in store this weekend, especially across northern WI where lows will dip into the upper 30s to low 40s. Temps nudge back to near or slightly above normal for much of next week with highs mainly in the mid 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 636 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Patchy ground fog will burn off shortly after sunrise, with some other mid clouds moving across eastern WI. While a few lower clouds could move into far north-central WI this morning, expect low end VFR clouds to build with daytime heating in the 15-16Z timeframe. Isolated showers should develop over far northeast WI in the 20-00Z timeframe, but coverage will be limited, so have kept the PROB30 going at GRB/MTW/ATW. A stray storm is also possible, but chances are too low to include. Only a few lingering clouds are expected after dark and into tonight. Northwest winds will increase this morning and become a bit breezy, with gusts to 20 kts in the late morning and afternoon, then easing to under 10 kts after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 126 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Northwest winds of 10-20 kts are expected this weekend. Gusts to 25 kts will be possible, mainly near Death's Door. HREF 10m gust ensemble mean and max bring 25 kt winds right to Washington Island, but keep the stronger winds towards northern Lake Michigan. Due to the very smallarea and marginal winds, will hold off on issuing a Small Craft Advisory. Offshore winds will limit waves to 1 to 3 ft for most spots on the bay and nearshore waters, with any 3-4 foot waves staying in the open waters. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Bersch AVIATION.......Bersch MARINE.........Bersch  609 FXUS63 KLBF 221136 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 636 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are expected to last this morning, bringing potential for heavy rainfall east of Highway 83. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected tonight, lingering into the afternoon on Sunday. Heavy rainfall will again be the main concern. - Northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the central plains over the next several days leading to a daily threat for precipitation across the area. - Temperatures will be seasonal across the area with daily highs ranging from the lower to middle 80s in the northeast, to around 90 in the southwest. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 306 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Storms are expected to linger through the morning hours, especially areas east of Highway 83. The environment remains fairly worked from yesterday's convection, and generally fairly stable. However, still have plenty of low level moisture and deep layer shear for some more organized updrafts to develop during the early morning period. The main concern with these early morning storms is the additional moisture aloft, as well as potential for training storm development, leading to potential for locally heavy rainfall. This signal remains strongest east of Highway 83, where soils remain quite moist from the previous few rain events. This may lead to some localized flooding threat, especially in areas where training thunderstorms can develop and in low lying regions. After storms clear out in the morning, expect a brief break from rain and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Skies remain partly to mostly cloudy, limiting the ability for strong instability to develop across the region. This may also keep temperatures slightly cooler today, with highs mostly remaining in the 80s, with upper 80s really only along and south of the Interstate 80 corridor. While the afternoon looks relatively quiet, expecting another round of convection to initiate along a nearly stationary boundary in western Nebraska. The main core of the upper level jet is expected to be slightly further east, which may limit our deep layer shear in addition to the already limited instability. In general, expecting this will allow for a multicellular storm mode across the Sandhills and east. At this point, thinking the main concerns this evening into the overnight hours will be potential for heavy rainfall yet again. Cannot completely rule out a threat for some isolated large hail, especially in the stronger updrafts, and strong, gusty winds with the stronger downdrafts. While individual cells may bring locally heavy rainfall, the main threat for heavy rain will be the redevelopment of cells behind the initial push. Again, thinking the greater threat for any potential flooding will be areas east of Highway 83, where there has already been ample rainfall the past few days, with fairly saturated soils. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger throughout the morning and afternoon on Sunday, especially given the nearly stationary nature of the boundary. This may also set up a notable temperature gradient across the region. As clouds should be able to clear across western Nebraska, may see highs pushing into the lower 90s. However, across north central Nebraska, mostly cloudy and rainy conditions may limit highs to only the upper 70s. At this time, the severe threat remains relatively low, but could see some decent rainfall again throughout the day on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 306 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 High pressure aloft will remain anchored over the southwestern CONUS through next week. Ridging will extend north of thisfeature into the northern Rockies. The amplitude of the ridging will be temporarily suppressed Sunday night into Monday night by a strong trough of low pressure traversing southern Canada. As this feature tracks east into the northern Great Lakes midweek, slightly cooler air will back into mainly eastern portions of the forecast area. Further west and southwest, warm temperatures will continue with daily highs reaching around 90 degrees. Readings in the northeastern forecast area will reach into the low 80s Wednesday and Thursday. With the persistent northwesterly flow aloft, and favorable moisture at the surface, periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through next week. As for the severe threat, deep layer shear of 30+ KTS looks probable next week, favoring a continued threat for severe storms daily. With thetae ridging across the western forecast area next week, storms appear to develop over the higher terrain of eastern Wyoming and the western Panhandle almost daily. Steering winds will carry this activity southeast into western and central portions of the forecast area. Based on the latest NBM forecast, precipitation chances are highest in the western half of the forecast area, and this seems reasonable && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 For the KLBF terminal: Expect scattered high clouds around 20000 FT AGL today. Skies will become broken at 15000 FT AGL this evening then 10000 FT AGL overnight. There is a chance for thunderstorms overnight and will handle this with a prob30 group. For the KVTN terminal: Expect scattered to broken ceilings around 20000 FT AGL through this evening. Ceilings will lower to 10000 FT AGL overnight. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Richie LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...Buttler  640 FXUS65 KSLC 221136 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 536 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1019 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026... - Monsoonal moisture will continue to spread across Utah and southwest Wyoming through Saturday, bringing an increased threat of thunderstorms that could produce heavy rainfall capable of flash flooding. - Moisture will decrease somewhat Sunday into Monday, with the potential for more substantial drying for at least northern Utah and southwest Wyoming late in the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1019 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026... An elongated ridge of high pressure is centered roughly over the Four Corners region this evening. The resultant southerly flow aloft has allowed for monsoon moisture to spread northward across the southern three-quarters of the forecast area. Satellite derived PWs indicate values of 1.0 inch or above for that part of the area, with the moisture continuing to move northward. Embedded shortwave energy in the flow is allowing an area of showers and thunderstorms to continue tonight over central Utah, with the showers continuing to track northward for the remainder of this evening and into the early part of the overnight hours before dissipating. With ample moisture in place tomorrow, will see another round of scattered showers develop during the afternoon. Absent a well defined forcing mechanism, these will be primarily focused over the higher terrain. This will tend to limit the potential for valley convective activity, but would not be surprised to see a few showers pop up away from the terrain. Forcing is expected to be enhanced again during the evening and early overnight hours, this time from a frontal boundary ejecting from a Pacific Northwest storm system. Given the front will be very much outrunning its associated forcing, think associated precipitation will be scattered in nature, primarily focused over northwest Utah. The front is expected to bring a very slight dip in temperatures Sunday or northern portions of the area, bringing highs within 5F of seasonal normals. However, its passage combined with flattening of the ridge as the Pacific Northwest system tracks over the top of it will add a westerly component to the flow aloft, advecting some drier air in through Monday. This does not look to be substantial drying by any means, but there is a high chance of some areas seeing PWs as low as the 0.6 to 0.8 inch range, which could bring minimum relative humidity values back close to critical values for portions of western Utah. This could also act to decrease coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but as we saw earlier this week, there's a good chance that the decrease would not be substantial. Spread in the guidance increase quite a bit for the middle to latter part of the week, putting confidence in the long term forecast a bit lower than usual. For Wednesday into Thursday, another Pacific Northwest trough is expected to move over the top of the Four Corners ridge, and ensembles seem to be struggling with how much the trough interacts with the ridge. Some guidance (the GFS, for example) shows only minor flattening of the ridge, which would keep at least some moisture over most of the area into the upcoming weekend. However, in solutions where the interaction brings more substantial flattening of the ridge (e.g. the latest EC), the more zonal flow would bring more dramatic drying. Will wait and see where things end up landing. && .AVIATION... KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal through the period. Dry conditions will continue through the mid afternoon before isolated convection develops during the mid afternoon with ~30% chance of impacting the terminal. This activity becomes less convective and more showery overnight. Winds will be light and diurnally driven aside from variable and gusty winds associated with precipitation near the terminal. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist for the entire airspace through the period. Conditions across the northeastern airspace are starting to dry. Dry conditions will persist through the early afternoon before more convection develops, primarily across the northern 2/3rds of the airspace. This activity will transition to more showery precipitation across the northern airspace overnight. Winds will remain light and diurnally driven aside from gusty and erratic winds near any showers or storms. && .FIRE WEATHER, Issued 401 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026... Light rain continues to linger across northern Utah that will dissipate by early morning. Moisture will remain elevated across the region with more storms developing Saturday afternoon. Most models have the southern 1/3rd of Utah remaining relatively dry today with most of the activity across central and northern Utah. These storms that develop today will likely weaken and linger into the overnight hours across northern Utah, similar to the activity that occurred tonight. These afternoon storms will be capable of frequent lightning along with gusty and erratic winds. After today moisture will gradually start to decrease across the region, particularly across southern Utah. Precipitation chances will remain through midweek before flow aloft becomes more westerly during the second half of the week. This will bring much drier air into the area with minimum relative humidity decreasing back into the teens with recoveries in the 30s and 40s. Winds will also be increasing as conditions dry. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Heat Advisory until 7 AM MDT this morning for UTZ101>106. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Traphagan AVIATION...Mahan FIRE WEATHER...Mahan For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  707 FXUS64 KMEG 221138 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 638 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 638 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon, with areas along and west of the Mississippi River having the greatest chance of rainfall. A few storms could be severe, with damaging winds and perhaps large hail. - More bearable conditions will be in place this weekend with highs on Sunday ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s. - Northwest flow aloft will keep rain chances in the forecast each day next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1123 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Shower and thunderstorm chances are increasing Saturday afternoon and evening as a weak disturbance moves across the southern Plains. The latest CAMs are in better agreement with storms firing over south central Kansas in the early afternoon hours. This activity would dive southeast towards the Mid-South, posing a damaging wind threat. However, a few caveats exist to this forecast. First, if convective initiation occurs further south, upper level steering may keep storms to our west. In addition, the presence of dry air aloft may discourage storm longevity. Regardless, a few areas of the Mid-South can expect showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening with the potential for damaging winds. Outside of rain chances, the weekend will be much more bearable thanks to lower dewpoints and northerly surface winds. Sunday will be our "coolest" day with highs ranging from the upper 80s near Kentucky to the mid 90s in the Mississippi Delta. For the upcoming week, strong upper level ridging will build over the Rockies. Ensembles remain consistent in several shortwaves ejecting out of this region starting Monday. These disturbances will follow a northwest flow pattern into the Mid-South, keeping rain chances almost daily through the end of the week. While it remains too early to pinpoint areas at risk for MCS development, the upper level pattern is suggesting a high probability of at least one MCS next week. If this manifests, damaging winds will be the primary concern. The good news is that the northwest flow will keep us on the cooler side of things. The probability for heat indices reaching 105 degrees or greater next week is low, around 15 percent. This may change in future forecast updates, but for now expect a slightly cooler week with daily chances of rain. ANS && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Hi-res models are in good agreement with moving the disturbance causing storms across the Plains this morning into the Mid South later today. Storms will likely weaken upon their approach and then redevelop across the Mid-South later this afternoon as instability builds. Timing is still quite variable, so kept the PROB30 TSRA groups quite broad. The PROB30 groups were continued at JBR, MEM, and MKL and added to TUP. Winds will be light and variable this morning, becoming NW at 6-10 kts this afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1123 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A few areas of fog cannot be ruled out near the Tennessee River tonight, but any reduction in visibility should quickly resolve after sunrise. Otherwise, relative humidity values around 40 percent will be in place through Sunday. Fire weather concerns will remain low due to light 20 ft winds and wetting rain chances returning next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...SJM  746 FXUS61 KPBZ 221140 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 740 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Higher confidence in the timing and scope of thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening results in higher probability of severe weather occurring. SPC also introduced a low probability damaging wind threat for Sunday near the I-80 corridor/ && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A slight risk exists for damaging wind and large hail threat with storm activity this afternoon and evening. 2) A marginal risk for damaging wind Sunday is tied to afternoon and evening convection near the I-80 corridor. 3) Outside of lingering showers near Lake Erie, dry weather favored through mid next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Outside of a loner, elevated storm in north central OH, the overnight period has seen the pre-frontal convection die off east of the region while the MCS remains farther west in central IL. This results sets up the region to remain in a clearer sky environment that awaits the arrival of the pre-frontal trough (and eventual sfc cold front) to initiate fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms. Hi-res guidance has generally coalesced around the idea of storm initiation between 2pm-4pm over eastern OH with storms spreading east through 8pm along/ahead of the pre-frontal trough before lingering showers and low probability thunderstorms full push east of the region by the early hours Sunday morning ahead of the surface cold front. Clearer skies allowing for maximization of surface heating should push area SBCAPE values towards 1500-2000 J/kg and steepens low-level lapse rates that serves as the main drivers for the hazardous weather threat. Despite weak shear (around 20kts) and marginal dCAPE (600-800 J/kg) that should limit the high-end severe potential, discrete storms that merge into multicellular clusters is enough to create scattered instances of damaging winds and large hail. Severe threats peak between 4pm-8pm before subsiding thereafter as buoyancy wanes and the surface decouples. KEY MESSAGE 2... Residual shortwave movement combined with cold advection aloft may trigger isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm Sunday afternoon and evening coincident with peak heating. Storms coming off Lake Erie toward the I-80 corridor may pose an isolated damaging wind threat if surface heating maximizes sbCAPE (to 1000 J/kg) while mid-level flow strengthens. KEY MESSAGE 3... Residual cool northwest flow on the backside of the upper trough may induce enough lift in conjunction with warm Lake Erie waters to create light rain showers near/north of I-80 late Sunday into Monday. Otherwise, high pressure and height rises aloft point to a prolonged (relatively speaking, in relation to the previous month) dry period to start next week. High temperature does start below seasonal averages on Monday before rising back near average by mid week. Long range ensembles currently favor Thursday as the next day with showers/thunderstorms as the next upper trough crosses. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High confidence forecast of VFR and medium confidence of showers and storms impacting airports, however there will be storms around this afternoon and early evening. VFR prevails, otherwise until widespread showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening ahead of an advancing pre-frontal trough (1st) and cold front (2nd) combo. The strong storms could drop visibilities to IFR levels while also posing a risk for creating wind gusts to at least 30kts, potentially higher. Based on the latest high resolution models, the time window is 18-22Z in Ohio, 20-24Z PA and WV save for DUJ where it is until 2Z. Lingering shower and low probability thunderstorms eventuallyclear east by 06z, but cool advection plus residual moisture favors MVFR/IFR stratus development thereafter. Current probs have a 30-40% of IFR CIGS over PA and WV. The highest confidence now is our historically more frequent terminals of FKL and DUJ. Outlook... Widespread MVFR to IFR cigs are favored Sunday morning that improve through the day, but scattered showers and low probability thunderstorms develop by the afternoon due to cool NW flow over warm lake waters. Precipitation chances linger in northwest PA into Monday before high pressure provides areawide VFR dry weather by Tuesday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Frazier AVIATION...Frazier/McMullen  757 FXUS64 KLCH 221140 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 640 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Area wide Heat Advisory Saturday with max heat index values of 111 F. - Heat Stress Levels have increased to Extreme (level 4 of 4) for southeast Texas and Louisiana Saturday; this level of heat stress will persist through at least Monday. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday afternoon. - Lightning and volatile winds could exacerbate fire conditions with storm passage. Check with your local officials for burn bans across SETX and CEN/SWLA. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1146 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 This past afternoon and evening were certainly active as severe thunderstorms moved across central Louisiana down into Acadiana. The 00Z sounding from LCH had a surface CAPE value of 6600 J/kg with a DCAPE value of 1262 J/kg. Widespread damage was reported across Acadiana with a wind gust of 76 mph recorded at KARA. Moving into the forecast, looking aloft at 500 mb, the upper- level ridge continues to erode with the center building farther to the west. With us on the eastern edge of the ridge, we will start to see troughs rotating around the ridge and increasing our chances for MCS formation as this unstable air will run into our very warm and moist Gulf air mass. This instability, when combined with daytime heating, could cause a few strong to severe storms, but widespread severe weather is not expected. The main limiting factors for more severe weather are a lack of bulk shear and a drier low to mid levels of the atmosphere. With a lack of moisture aloft, the extent of thunderstorm development will be limited. But once again this environment can support "overachievers" with damaging winds possible as updrafts collapse. Moving into next week, we are looking at a diurnally driven pattern with storms forming along outflows and the sea breeze. The best chance for widespread rain will be on Thursday as both the GFS and ECMWF are picking up on a trough rotating around the ridge and moving in from the north. For the next seven days, heat will be a constant concern with heat index values expected to be above 108 F area wide this weekend. With persistent low-level flow from the south, our dew points will remain in the upper 70s keeping us muggy. Looking into the extended forecast, there is no real break from the heat and humidity and heat advisories are likely through the rest of the forecast. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions ongoing and expected to prevail through most of the forecast period. There is a chance for isolated showers and storms later this afternoon into the early evening hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1146 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Light onshore winds will continue for the next several days, and waves will remain between 1 and 3 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1146 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Widespread rain across central Louisiana and Acadiana was certainly welcomed. Hopefully, the next time it rains, it will come with less wind. Little to no rain fell on the west side of the CWA, and KBDI values are expected to stay steady or slowly climb. Afternoon minRH values will be in the 30s this weekend. The main limiting factor for aggressive fire behavior is a lack of wind, with speeds expected to stay below 10 mph. Gusty winds caused by outflows from nearby storms could cause fires to behave aggressively, so caution should be exercised and outdoor burning is not recommended. Multiple parishes and counties have burn bans in effect. Please consult your local fire departments for more information. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243- 252>254. TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14 AVIATION...87  782 FXUS64 KTSA 221141 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 641 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 639 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Hot to very hot conditions will continue for the next week, with the only exceptions being around active thunderstorm activity. - Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through Monday, bringing areas of locally heavy rain and strong gusty winds, but most areas will see only minimal rainfall. - Areas of localized fire weather concerns will persist. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 An upper level shortwave will pass through the area late tonight into mid morning, bringing another round of elevated showers and storms. These storms may result in locally heavy rainfall, but most areas will only see minimal precipitation. In fact, the storms that will impact the area later are already present in Nebraska. CAMs match the radar presentation reasonably well, but are too dry across central Kansas where additional storms have formed. This may matter because the 00z CAMs confine the majority of the storm activity to central Oklahoma. If storms get going further to the east that would be very relevant for the eventual outcome. Suffice it to say, uncertainty is fairly high for exactly where storms move in Saturday morning. Either way, the dry lower boundary layer will favor gusty winds, with a marginal (5 percent) chance for severe winds near stronger storms. Temperatures will be tricky Saturday considering the timing of the storms. Areas away from convective activity will again be in the upper 90s to near 100 F, but rain cooled areas may see a cooler day in the lower 90s. Will let the day shift decide on any heat products based on how storm activity evolves. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 The upper level ridge will remain nearly stationary to the west of the area for the next few days. Temperatures should be mostly in the mid 90s in the north, but warmer in the south near 100 F. Behind some storm activity Monday morning (see below), model guidance rapidly increases temperatures as downslope southwest flow develops. Monday or Tuesday may be the warmest days this week, with some slight cooling mid week in response to a grazing distant trough in the Midwest. Even so, it'll stay plenty hot, with mid 90s to low 100s to close out the week. The displaced center of high pressure will keep somewhat enhanced mid level flow and periodic shortwaves moving through for the next few days. The current favored timing for the next such shortwave will be later Sunday into Monday morning. Model guidance remains on the weaker side, but there could be a narrow corridor of decent rainfall wherever storms set up. The dry boundary layer will continue to support strong gusty winds as well. The same general pattern will remain in place through next week, but as the ridge gradually flexes into the area shower activity will gradually become more isolated. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 639 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop later this morning and continue through the afternoon, with convective impacts possible at all sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 97 74 97 77 / 40 10 10 20 FSM 101 74 99 75 / 30 20 20 20 MLC 101 73 103 79 / 30 20 10 0 BVO 96 69 95 71 / 40 10 20 20 FYV 96 68 94 71 / 50 20 20 40 BYV 94 69 92 70 / 50 20 20 60 MKO 97 71 97 74 / 40 10 10 10 MIO 95 70 93 71 / 50 10 20 50 F10 98 72 99 75 / 30 10 10 0 HHW 101 74 102 77 / 20 20 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...05  852 FXUS65 KPUB 221142 CCA AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Pueblo CO 542 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Monsoon moisture will continue through late week then some drying. - Not much temperature change through the week. A bit cooler mid week and a bit of warming next weekend. - Storms today may be more towards late afternoon/evening. Can't rule out flash flooding at Aspen Acres but no strong signals to go with. One or two strong storms possible. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1204 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Early this morning quite a few showers were still ongoing across mainly the plains, with a few thunderstorms over the far eastern plains. This activity will linger into the early morning hours and should decrease around 2-3 am. Activity is likely being driven by the low level jet per latest guidance. Thunderstorms may be a bit later on developing later today, with the best chance of storms occurring over the Pikes Peak region, with the activity moving slowly east during the evening hours. The far southeast sections of the fcst area will likely remain dry today and this evening. HPC has the mtns and I-25 corridor region in marginal risk for excessive rainfall. A few of the storms late this afternoon and evening may be on the strong side, especially north of US50. Temperatures today over the plains will likely be a few degrees cooler today than yesterday. The valley and mountains will likely see similar temperatures today as they say yesterday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1204 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Sunday will be somewhat similar to todays weather pattern. However storms may form a bit earlier in the day and we may see a bit less coverage over the plains during the evening hours. With less clouds over the plains Sunday, temps will likely be 2 to 3F warmer than today. The mtns and I-25 corridor region are once again in marginal risk for excessive rainfall. From Monday into late week, the monsoon pattern will continue over the region, and we will see scattered to likely storms over the mtns and isolated to scattered over the plains. Temps will cool a bit by mid week, but temps will slowly climb towards next weekend. The best day for the potential for some locally heavier rain (and potential flash flooding) may be mid week as a surface boundary will affect the pains/S mtns. A drier pattern is indicted by late week next weekend over the region as a much more zonal pattern develops, and this pattern will cut off the monsoon flow. 100 degree readings will be possible once again over the plains by next weekend, and fire weather concerns may increase as flow aloft increases somewhat. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1044 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Lingering convection across the eastern plains finally starting to diminish as of 06z, while still affecting KPUB with E-NE surface winds gusting to 30 kts. Otherwise, plan on VFR conditions across the forecast area overnight, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Brought in VCTS for KALS and KCOS starting around 19z-20z tomorrow, with PROB30 for -TSRA and variable gusts 21z-03z. For KPUB, mentioned VCTS starting at 23z with PROB30 for -TSRA and variable gusts 00z-05z. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...HODANISH AVIATION...MOORE  895 FXUS63 KMQT 221144 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 744 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across mainly central Upper Michigan later today with minimal rainfall totals. - Seasonable temperatures are expected through next week with the exception of slightly below normal temperatures Sunday and Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 410 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Radar mosaic has been somewhat quiet over the last several hours with just an uptick in showers/isolated storms across the west. Latest radar mosaic shows that weak convection now moving southeastward along the WI/MI border. With limited instability, however, do not anticipate this activity to produce much rain or thunder. Later today, additional scattered showers and weak storms are possible as another cold front and shortwave drop southeast overhead. That said, CAMs are even less impressed with this round. Outside the south-central where some spots could reach up to 0.25 inches, accumulations remain below 0.1 inches. Highs will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Currently, ground-based obs across the area are reporting low 50s over much the interior west with visibility restrictions of 1/4 mile at both Sawyer and Iron Mountain. By daybreak, these areas could drop into the upper 40s. Elsewhere, the southern and eastern UP and Keweenaw are reporting temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. Temps continue to decrease this weekend, bottoming out Sunday as a mid level trough deepens over the Great Lakes. CAA lowers 850 mb temps to between 3-6C, yielding highs in the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s to mid 50s. Some interior spots likely will dip back into the upper 30s Sunday night. Northerly winds are expected to gust up to 20 mph on Saturday and between 20-30 mph on Sunday, highest east...particularly near Lake Superior. High pressure moving in from the west keeps weather dry through Monday, likely through most of Tuesday as well before the next mid level trough moves through the region. This brings back shower and storm chances for Tuesday night and Wednesday, then dry weather is favored the rest of the work week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 738 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with the exception of some LIFR cigs at IWD and CMX through mid-morning. Elsewhere, earlier LIFR visibilities at SAW have improved to VFR. But, will carry a tempo for MVFR fog through Sat 14Z. Another front will push through the area today with increasing northwest winds behind it, bringing gusts to 20-25kt at SAW and CMX this afternoon through the evening. A few isolated showers or a thunderstorm are expected over the central UP today, but probability for rain showers is only high enough at SAW to include mention at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 348 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Lake Superior - Northwest winds behind a cold front increase on Saturday to 20-30 kts over the east half of the lake by late afternoon, strongest near the south-central shores. Gusts approach 20 kts over the west. As winds become more northerly Saturday night behind a second cold front, central lake superior winds increase to 15-25 kts; the stronger winds to 30 kts over the east persist. This holds into Sunday morning before winds gradually simmer down from west to east into Sunday night. This builds significant waves of 3-7 ft over the southeastern waters this weekend. Probabilities for gales to 35 kts are only between 15-25%, highest south of Stannard Rock and along the Marquette/Alger County shores. Winds otherwise remain below 20 kts through Tuesday before the next system brings back winds up to 20-25 kts Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Northern Bay of Green Bay and northern Lake Michigan - Southerly winds of 15-25 kts ahead of the cold front this afternoon drop off into this evening, becoming northwest for Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening, but severe storms are not expected. Winds increase to 20-30 kts this weekend as a colder airmass descends over the Great Lakes. Winds fall back below 20 kts Sunday night, remaining below 20 kts through much of next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MIZ005-006. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...77/TDUD AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...77  121 FXUS61 KCLE 221147 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 747 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...12z TAF Aviation Forecast Update... .WHAT HAS CHANGED... There is now a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms from our central and eastern Ohio Counties points east into Northwest PA this afternoon and evening. Increased rain chances outside of the "snowbelt" Sunday afternoon/evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected to develop and then move east-southeast across the area this afternoon and evening. Some storms may turn severe with pockets of damaging winds the main risk. Isolated hail and locally heavy rain are secondary threats. 2) Below average temperatures arrive to end the weekend and start the upcoming week. Periodic lake-enhanced rain showers will primarily impact portions of Northeast OH and Northwest PA late tonight through at least Monday night, with a few showers or storms elsewhere Sunday afternoon/evening. 3) Outside of lake-enhanced showers, a period of dry and tranquil weather is expected the first half of the week. The next potential weather maker brings chances for showers and a few storms late Wednesday and primarily Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The combination of a low-level trough axis and modest warm air/ moisture advection has been fueling some thunderstorms early this morning, primarily over Lake Erie but extending southwest into parts of North Central OH as of 3 AM. While this activity is generally favored to lift east-northeast and diminish this morning, it may still be on the scope as the rest of the world awakens, particularly over and close to Lake Erie. While it may not be an entirely dry morning given this activity, greater shower and storm potential, including a risk for some strong to severe storms, awaits until the afternoon and evening hours. Aloft, a shortwave will dig into the central Great Lakes today into tonight while taking on a neutral to slightly negative tilt. This will encourage a weak surface low to slowly deepen while drifting out of northern Michigan and into southern Ontario late today and tonight. A pre-frontal trough is still expected to cross the area this afternoon and early evening from west to east, with a strong cold front arriving in Northwest OH late this afternoon and surging southeast across the area through this evening. Large scale forcing for ascent will maximize late this afternoon and evening as a vort max rounds the base of the deepening shortwave and rotates into the northern OH/Lake Erie vicinity, though more modest forcing is evident even earlier in the day. Showers/storms are expected to begin developing during the midday or early afternoon timeframe, with activity peaking in coverage, intensity, and organization during the late afternoon and early evening. Showers/storms are expected to exit southeast this evening with the cold front, with activity quickly transitioning to lake-enhanced showers later tonight. Activity will likely blossom along both the pre-frontal trough and a lake breeze near the northeastern shoreline near and east of the I-77 corridor this afternoon, and across Northwest OH along the cold front itself. Given the increasing forcing into the late afternoon/evening and multiple triggers for convection, it's likely that eastern portions of our area see the most widespread convection and greatest overall rain amounts, with some areas likely seeing multiple rounds in quick succession. With that said, nearly all CAMs develop fairly numerous storms along the cold front as it pushes across our western counties, so odds are that a large majority of the area will see a shower or storm this afternoon/evening on the balance. There is some potential for both severe weather and locally heavy rain with storms this afternoon/evening, though the overall setup will not favor higher end convective hazards. Clouds and perhaps some ongoing shower/thunder activity will slow heating today, though weak to moderate, uncapped instability (1000-2000 J/KG of MLCAPE) is expected to develop through the afternoon as low-level lapse rates steepen to around 8C/km. Some pockets of dry air aloft will contribute to modest DCAPE values in the 500-800 J/KG range. These marginal thermodynamics, coupled with increasing forcing and modest deep- layer shear values of 20-30kt, can support loosely organized convection. The primary severe threat today will be locally damaging winds, most likely with any small lines or clusters that evolve but also possible with any more intense cells. Isolated large hail is also possible, mainly with any updrafts that exhibit transient rotation which is most likely within storms along/east of the pre-frontal trough where surface flow will be more backed. While the overall lower-end environment and potential for storms to quickly get "messy" and work over the atmosphere puts a lid on severe potential today, most CAMs have quite a bit of convection across our area with some organization depicted, giving the SPC confidence to introduce a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather for much of the area east of the I-75 corridor (and a Marginal/level 1 of 5 for I-75). In terms of heavy rain potential, storm motions from the west- southwest will be fairly parallel to the incoming cold front, so the potential for multiple rounds and/or transient training does exist. Precipitable water values and warm cloud depths are not especially concerning for efficient rain-rates, though we will need to monitor portions of Northeast OH/Northwest PA for repeated storms or training convection that can still drop localized 2-3" rain amounts. Otherwise, area-average QPF will generally be in the 0.25-1.00" range through this evening, least across Northwest OH and greatest across Northeast OH/Northwest PA. The WPC has introduced a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall/localized flash flooding across Northeast OH and Northwest PA in their latest excessive rainfall outlook. KEY MESSAGE 2... After pulling a cold front across the area this evening, the surface low and upper trough across the central/eastern Great Lakes will continue to deepen through Sunday while beginning to stack, cut-off, and slow. The system will then start to slowly fill/weaken Sunday night and Monday while drifting to the east- northeast across southeastern Canada and New England. The seasonably chilly airmass pulled in behind the cold front and lingering moist cyclonic flow behind the stacking surface low/ upper trough will give us an early taste of fall to end the weekend and start the week...including some lake-enhanced rain. 850mb temperatures will bottom out at 6-9C Sunday night into early Monday, with 700mb temperatures dipping a bit below 0C as 500mb temperatures fall to around -20C. Most of the area will dry out late this evening into the overnight as the cold front exits, though as cooler west- northwest flow aligns over the ~25C lake waters some lake- enhanced showers will begin developing and moving into Northeast OH/Northwest PA. A vort max and low-level trough axis will cross the region very late tonight into early Sunday, likely causing activity to peak in organization. While some lake effect showers will continue on Sunday across Northeast OH/Northwest PA, the activity will likely lose organization and intensity for several hours after the morning trough passage. Another potent vort max and low-level trough axis will drop in from the northwest late Sunday afternoon and evening, bringing another uptick in lake-enhanced shower activity over and east-southeast of Lake Erie from as far west as the Islands and Sandusky points east. There will also be an uptick in showers across the rest of the area with the trough passage late Sunday afternoon and evening. Chilly, cyclonic west-northwest flow continues through at least Monday night or early Tuesday and some lake effect/ enhanced shower activity remains likely. However, there will likely be a trend for activity to become less intense/organized later Sunday night and beyond as high pressure builds in. A possible exception is Monday night when another vort max and trough passage is hinted at. That could cause one last uptick in the lake-driven showers, especially farther east. In terms of any hazards, instability will be deep enough over the lake for some thunder/lightning potential with the lake- enhanced activity...especially through the first half of Sunday night. The overall set-up with a somewhat shorter west-northwest fetch and some wind shifts through the event isn't overly favorable for intense, banded rainfall with a flash flood risk across the snowbelt. However, rain amounts will gradually add up (especially through Sunday evening) where lake-enhanced showers are most frequent and the potential for localized flooding will need to be kept in mind, especially if parts of Northeast OH or Northwest PA see locally heavy rain today. The heaviest rain amounts will likely occur slightly inland from the lakeshore form the Cleveland area points east-northeast. Otherwise, with cold air aloft and stronger winds towards and above 500mb, any thunderstorms with the trough passage late Sunday afternoon/ evening may produce gusty winds and/or small hail...especially over and downwind of Lake Erie. KEY MESSAGE 3... Locations outside of any lake enhanced rain showers are expected to dry out Sunday night and remain dry into the first half of the week. Lake enhanced rain will gradually dwindle starting late Sunday night and eventually end by Tuesday as discussed above. Overall, this will lend to a tranquil first half of the week across much of the area. Temperatures will slowly rebound towards normal starting on Tuesday. Another trough is expected to dig into the Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday. This will likely be accompanied by another surface low and its associated fronts. Chances for showers and some storms may arrive as early as Wednesday afternoon/evening, but are most favored on Thursday with this system. && .AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... The primary concerns and possible impacts for our local aviation weather at area airports will be the potential for a round of scattered convection this afternoon into the early evening. There is a slight risk for a couple strong to severe storms ahead of an approaching cold front later today. The cold front will start to move into NWOH around midday to early afternoon. There are PROB30 groups for a 5 to 6 hour time window from west to east between 17z this afternoon to 01z this evening. Any heavier showers and storm that impacts a TAF site will likely have a brief period of MVFR to IFR visibility reductions and ceilings with CB around 3K feet near the frontal passage. The convection should move eastward out of the NEOH and NWPA after 00z Scattered lake enhanced rain showers will likely develop around CLE, YNG, and ERI late this evening into the overnight with possible MVFR ceilings and visibility at times. Winds will start out from the south or southwest this morning 5 to 10 knots. Southwest winds will slightly increase 8 to 12 knots by midday through the afternoon/evening with gusts up to 20 knots possible. Any isolated strong to severe convection may have some isolated higher wind gusts up to 45 knots this afternoon. Winds will switch from the west-northwest late this evening and overnight 5 to 10 knots. Outlook...Non-VFR conditions will be likely Sunday through Monday morning with lake enhanced rain showers and isolated thunder possible for areas downwind of Lake Erie in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. && .MARINE... Marine weather conditions on Lake Erie will become rough and not ideal later tonight and continuing through late Monday. There is a round of strong storms over the central basin of Lake Erie this morning that will track eastward through Sunrise. Gusty winds up to 35 knots and isolated waterspouts could be possible with these early morning storms over the lake. A cold front will approach Lake Erie from the west late this afternoon and move across later this evening. Winds ahead of the cold front will be from the south to southwest 10 to 15 knots today and waves of 1 to 2 feet. Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible again this afternoon and evening with the frontal passage. Winds will shift around from the west to northwest tonight 15 to 20 knots and continue Sunday through Monday. Waves will increase 3 to 7 feet later tonight and those rough conditions will likely continue Sunday through Monday. Waterspouts will be very possible on Lake Erie starting tonight and lingering through Monday. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazard Statements for rip currents have been issued late tonight through at least Monday morning. These headlines will more than likely need to be extended later into Monday with future updates. High pressure will slowly build in Monday into Tuesday with nicer lake weather conditions returning by Tuesday. By Tuesday, winds will be westerly to southwesterly 5 to 15 knots and waves decreasing to 1 to 2 feet. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Monday morning for OHZ009>012-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Monday morning for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Monday for LEZ144>149. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sullivan AVIATION...77 MARINE...77  179 FXUS65 KPUB 221149 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 549 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Monsoon moisture will continue through late week then some drying. - Not much temperature change through the week. A bit cooler mid week and a bit of warming next weekend. - Storms today may be more towards late afternoon/evening. Can't rule out flash flooding at Aspen Acres but no strong signals to go with. One or two strong storms possible. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1204 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Early this morning quite a few showers were still ongoing across mainly the plains, with a few thunderstorms over the far eastern plains. This activity will linger into the early morning hours and should decrease around 2-3 am. Activity is likely being driven by the low level jet per latest guidance. Thunderstorms may be a bit later on developing later today, with the best chance of storms occurring over the Pikes Peak region, with the activity moving slowly east during the evening hours. The far southeast sections of the fcst area will likely remain dry today and this evening. HPC has the mtns and I-25 corridor region in marginal risk for excessive rainfall. A few of the storms late this afternoon and evening may be on the strong side, especially north of US50. Temperatures today over the plains will likely be a few degrees cooler today than yesterday. The valley and mountains will likely see similar temperatures today as they say yesterday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1204 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Sunday will be somewhat similar to todays weather pattern. However storms may form a bit earlier in the day and we may see a bit less coverage over the plains during the evening hours. With less clouds over the plains Sunday, temps will likely be 2 to 3F warmer than today. The mtns and I-25 corridor region are once again in marginal risk for excessive rainfall. From Monday into late week, the monsoon pattern will continue over the region, and we will see scattered to likely storms over the mtns and isolated to scattered over the plains. Temps will cool a bit by mid week, but temps will slowly climb towards next weekend. The best day for the potential for some locally heavier rain (and potential flash flooding) may be mid week as a surface boundary will affect the pains/S mtns. A drier pattern is indicted by late week next weekend over the region as a much more zonal pattern develops, and this pattern will cut off the monsoon flow. 100 degree readings will be possible once again over the plains by next weekend, and fire weather concerns may increase as flow aloft increases somewhat. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 543 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Thunderstorms will be possible at all three terminals this afternoon and evening with highest confidence of impacts at the KCOS terminal. Timing of thunderstorms will be towards the later side of the spectrum, beginning at 21z for KALS, 22z for KCOS and closer to 23z-00z at KPUB. Gusty erratic winds up to 40 kts will be possible near thunderstorms. Showers and/or thunderstorms may linger for all three terminals until close to 06z before clearing to the east and there is a low probability for some MVFR stratus to develop at KCOS and KPUB after 09-10z. Have introduced a SCT MVFR cloud group for now as confidence is low. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...HODANISH AVIATION...KT  243 FXUS63 KDMX 221151 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 651 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of patchy fog possible this morning. - A cooler, drier airmass settles over Iowa today, bringing comfortable conditions and slightly below average temperatures. - Rain and thunderstorm chances return to the state Late Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 125 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The cold front has cleared central Iowa, with a dry and comfortable airmass building in behind it. Quiet conditions established overnight will persist through Saturday afternoon. Patchy Fog remains possible early Saturday morning, though confidence in widespread coverage is limited due to dry air advecting in from the north. The highest probability for fog will reside along low river valleys and portions of southern Iowa, where boundary layer moisture and higher dew points linger. Surface high pressure expanding across Northern Plains will maintain comfortable conditions today, keeping dew points in the 50s to lower 60s. High temperatures will be noticeably cooler than Friday, dipping slightly below seasonal averages in a few locations; making for a great day to be outdoors. Quiet weather continues Saturday night, though cloud cover will gradually increase across western Iowa as a weak shortwave passes over the High Plains. Measurable precipitation is unlikely with this feature, but better chances for showers and thunderstorms arrive Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Iowa remains seated between a ridge centered over the Four Corners region and a trough over the Great Lakes. If either of these systems shift, that will change how far east or west moisture gets back into the area by Sunday night, which is when the next shortwave looks to move through, potentially bringing more precipitation chances into Sunday morning. At the moment, however, deterministic guidance is still struggling with the timing of this system. With this comes some degree of disagreement with placement, all of which will be better assessed in the coming days. This upper level pattern looks to remain rather stagnant, with the potential for additional shortwaves to move through the region next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 648 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Cumulus deck expected over southern terminals this afternoon. Northwest winds will produce gusts under 20kts, then become light and out of the north after 00z. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TDR LONG TERM...67 AVIATION...Jimenez  229 FXUS65 KCYS 221151 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 550 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected this weekend, with the possibility of widespread rain on Saturday. A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon. - Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue Monday through the end of the week with slightly above average temperature expected until Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 158 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Not many changes made to the previous forecast with a relatively wet and warm pattern expected to continue through the last full week of August. Current surface observations across the region show ample low to midlevel moisture with dewpoints remaining in the upper 50s and mid 60s across the eastern plains. A drier airmass is located over central and south central Wyoming, with dewpoints in the 30s and 40s. Expect this to change today as IR and Watervapor Satellite loop shows the next monsoon moisture plume lifting northeast out of Utah and Nevada at this hour and into Wyoming later this morning. This plume, in addition to a potent upper level shortwave, is forecast to drift eastward around the periphery of the upper level high to our south. This will also flatten the upper level ridge axis currently over the Front Range and result in slightly cooler temperatures. NAEFS still show PWATs between 1.00 (west of I-25) to 1.50 (east) across the region, and may have trended a bit higher compared to yesterday with values approaching a two week maximum between 18z and 00z for late August and early September. Getting some signals for excessive rainfall, especially if any outflow boundary interactions are considered. Kept POP above 40% for most of the area with scattered to numerous coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Not a lot of shear, however, so severe thunderstorms aren't as likely. There is a marginal risk for Severe thunderstorms across the eastern plains of southeast Wyoming and the southwest Nebraska panhandle...mainly for gusty winds. Can't rule out some marginally large hail, but thunderstorms will likely be linear lines and multicell clusters with straight hodographs through the afternoon and occasional periods of weaker shear ahead of the upper level disturbance. Could see some respectable rainfall amounts with short range ensembles showing a good chance of a half inch of rain, particularly along the I-80 corridor, and along/north of highway 20 over east central Wyoming and the northern Nebraska panhandle as the shortwave axis moves east through the region later this evening. Cooler today with highs in the 80s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. For Sunday, models show some drier air attempting to move into the forecast area through the day due to increasing west to northwest winds behind Saturday's shortwave disturbance. Surface winds are expected to increase a bit out of the west with gusts of 25 to 35 MPH possible, especially across southeast Wyoming. With drier conditions and a lack of forcing, expect shower and thunderstorm coverage to be lower into the evening hours with widely scattered coverage, mainly further south along the I-80 corridor. 0-6km shear is a little more favorable for organized convection though, especially over the southern Nebraska Panhandle. Kept POP between 20 to 35 percent near the Colorado border with POP around 15 percent north of I-80. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 131 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Monday...Coverage of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms increases somewhat by an increase in monsoonal moisture and lowering 700 mb temperatures providing less convective inhibition, CIN, compared to Sunday. As is this type of pattern, afternoon convection will be over and near the mountains due to differential heating and orographic effects, with the activity spreading across the rest of the forecast area before dissipation by late evening. Warmer temperatures compared to the previous day due to less cloud cover and convective coverage. Tuesday...Similar pattern synoptically to Monday with minor perturbations in the flow aloft aiding in lift of monsoonal moisture to produce widely scattered to scattered afternoon convection over and near our Snowy, Sierra Madre and northern Laramie Ranges, with the activity spreading eastward across the rest of the forecast area in the evening. Some lowering of mid level temperatures suggests daytime maximum temperatures will be a little cooler. Wednesday...The primary change compared to Tuesday, will be a reinforcement of the ridge aloft axis over Wyoming, inducing a return to upslope mechanical lift aiding the areal increase of showers and thunderstorms, especially east of the mountains and along the I-25 corridor and eastward. Slight warming trend with 700 mb temperatures near 13 Celsius yielding high temperatures in the 80s. Thursday-Friday...Monsoonal moisture becomes a bit more scant with decent westerly flow aloft and with warm temperatures aloft producing more convective inhibition, CIN, to limit development. A slight warming trend continues based on mid level, 700 mb temperature trends. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 550 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Patchy fog over western Nebraska early this morning should lift around sunrise. Otherwise, a potent upper level disturbance will move towards the area today resulting in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon through late this evening. Strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall possible with these storms. HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: For this morning, periods of IFR conditions in low CIGS and fog for KAIA and KCDR, and possibly KBFF and KSNY (lower confidence). Showers and thunderstorms will develop near the Wyoming terminals after 18z, and eventually push east into the high plains, impacting the western Nebraska terminals after 00z Sunday. Added TEMPO groups with VCTS to KCYS and KSNY, which have the best chance to see a few lines of thunderstorms move through the area. Otherwise, occasionally breezy this afternoon into this evening with east to southeast winds gusting to 20 to 25 knots at times. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...TJT  277 FXUS66 KOTX 221152 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 452 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory has been extended for Northeastern WA and North Idaho for Saturday. - Saturday will bring critical fire weather conditions across the Inland Northwest due to a combination of isolated to scattered thunderstorms producing gusty outflow winds, along with breezy winds and low relative humidity. - Patchy blowing dust is possible Saturday in the Western Columbia Basin. && .SYNOPSIS... A weather system passing through on Saturday will bring critical fire weather conditions across the Inland Northwest. This is due to a combination of isolated to scattered thunderstorms producing gusty outflow winds, along with breezy winds and low relative humidity. Sunday will remain breezy and dry, but cooler. Temperatures will warm again at the start of next week with breezy conditions returning by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today: A deep low begins its migration into the region. Midlevel moisture is streaming inland ahead of the low bringing heavy mid and high level clouds along with sprinkles and light showers. There has been a few lightning strikes near Lewiston this morning where there are a few midlevel circulations noted within the midlevels. Would not rule out a few strikes with additional activity in Central WA either due to subtle circulations showing up in the water vapor. The air mass is very warm and dry near the surface. As such, any rain falling is largely evaporating but this is leading to erratic wind gusts upwards of 15 to 20 mph. Several of the high resolution models are indicating that a few cells that can drive rain to the surface could result in gusts as high as 40 mph. This band of moisture and shower activity will slowly lift south to north and clear across the International border early Saturday morning and the upper low will begin to migrate to the WA Coast, into the North Cascades overnight and across NE WA and N ID Sunday morning. As the low and associated 500mb cold pool migrates inland, lapse rates will continue to steepen with lower levels remaining in the 90s. Areas of NE WA and N ID will only cool 3-4 degrees from Friday and Heat Advisories have been extended. One of the main concerns for Saturday will be the potential for thunderstorms developing. Initially, storms are expected to fire over the North Cascades where the upper level cooling will arrive closer to midday but as impulses rotate around the low and eject inland the potential for cells to develop over Idaho, Eastern and northern WA will increase. This looks to be closer to late afternoon into the evening hours. Any cells through the day, rain or thunderstorms that produce precipitation shafts will likely result in gusty outflow winds of 25 to 50 mph given the high based nature of this convection, extremely dry subcloud layers, and DCAPES of 500-1500 J/kg. In the most intense outflows, winds could gust closer to 60 mph. This will be nclosely monitored through the day as will lightning strikes and fire starts. Winds will be the other major concern through the day. Away from outflow boundaries, strong synoptic driven winds will develop across a majority of the region, especially the Western Columbia Basin and through the Cascade Gaps. Winds will initially strengthen from the south then shift to the southwest and west late in the day into the evening as cooler air floods inland. Any ongoing or new fires will stand a good chance to be fanned by gusty winds of 25-35 mph. Given our fuel dryness levels, this is very concerning. Red Flag Warnings are in place across the region to account for the synoptic winds, outflow winds, and lightning starts. Generally speaking, the Cascades, Northern Mountains, and Idaho Panhandle are in fire weather highlights for the lightning starts and gusty outflow winds though the Cascades will experience a period of strong synoptic winds Saturday evening as the cooler air floods into the region. This will draw higher humidity levels but it will take several hours for the fuels to react. We expect very little lightning in the Western and Southern Columbia Basin so this will mainly be a wind and low humidity issue. For the eastern Basin, the combination of periods of gusty winds and isolated thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening hour makes this a dual threat for fire weather. We will also need to watch for blowing dust on Saturday around Moses Lake, Ritzville, and Wilbur with a lower threat for Omak than previously thought. The gusty winds could also lead to blowing ash near any fire scars. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue well into the evening and overnight hours while winds remain elevated region-wide. The main threat for thunderstorms on Sunday will be in the morning with the system departing to the east and breezy winds becoming the most impactful weather through the day while temperatures cool back into the 80s. Monday through Friday: Ensembles continue to advertise a progressive weather pattern next week. High pressure moves in Monday and Tuesday promoting a warming and drying trend. This is quickly interrupted by another shortwave Wednesday. The exact depth and track of this through the NW comes with some uncertainty but pattern recognition would suggest another bout of windy conditions and possibly some thunderstorms. The pattern repeats itself again Thursday and Friday with the next system Friday into Saturday. We are not seeing a lot of signs for appreciable rainfall with these systems indicating fire weather concerns will remain elevated or higher as we navigate the end of August. /sb && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFs: A renewed threat for convection will start in Central WA this morning then expand into the Idaho Panhandle, Eastern WA, and Northern WA 23-06z. Any cells will be capable of strong outflow winds near 50 mph. Confidence is too low for TS for most TAF sites with 10-20% chance, except KLWS/KPUW with a 30% chance. South to southwest winds will increase in the Columbia Basin, Palouse, and Spokane area in the late morning to early afternoon and shift to west in the evening at KEAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low confidence for TS at terminals but moderate confidence for outflow winds to impact most terminals with speeds of at least 20-30 mph. JW ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 95 59 81 54 86 56 / 10 20 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 95 60 80 53 86 56 / 10 40 10 0 0 0 Pullman 90 51 77 45 85 50 / 10 30 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 97 62 86 58 91 62 / 20 30 0 0 0 0 Colville 94 51 80 44 86 47 / 30 20 20 0 0 0 Sandpoint 93 54 77 47 82 50 / 20 40 10 0 0 0 Kellogg 93 54 76 52 83 54 / 20 40 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 94 55 85 53 88 56 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 93 63 83 61 87 65 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 94 56 84 55 88 58 / 30 20 10 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for Northeast Mountains-Spokane Area. Red Flag Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT Sunday for Selkirk Mountains of Northeast Washington (Zone 700). Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM PDT this evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin - Palouse -Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701)-Lower Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). Air Quality Alert until 2 PM PDT Monday for Central Chelan County-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM PDT Sunday for East Portion of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-East Washington North Cascades (Zone 698)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)- Okanogan Highlands and Kettle Mountains (Zone 699)- Okanogan Valley (Zone 703). ID...Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d'Alene Area-Idaho Palouse- Lewiston Area-Northern Panhandle. Red Flag Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT Sunday for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101). && $$  375 FXUS63 KJKL 221155 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 755 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another cold front will bring a possibility of showers and thunderstorms to the area today. - Some storms on this afternoon and evening could produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. - Noticeably cooler and less humid air will then arrive to start the new week, with mainly dry weather. && .UPDATE... Issued at 750 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 The areal extent of fog was adjusted based on recent satellite imagery and observations. This led to no substantial changes at this time. Valley fog should still lift and dissipate over the next couple of hours. Then attention turns to an approaching cold front and upper level disturbance that will move into eastern KY during peak heating. Several of the HRRR runs overnight continue to support the potential for gusty to locally damaging clusters or line segments for later in the afternoon and evening, though they vary in location. Trends for this potential will continue to be monitored. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 510 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 Early this morning a closed upper level low was located in the vicinity of the southwestern portions of Lake Huron with an upper trough extending south and southeast across the Great Lakes to the OH valley as well as the TN Valley and Southern Appalachians/Southeast Conus. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge was centered in the Four Corners region vicinity while an upper low was off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. An initial shortwave was east of the Appalachians while a second was moving across the Central Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley region with yet a third shortwave upstream from the western Great Lakes into parts of the Upper MS Valley. At the surface, a quasi stationary front was well and east of eastern KY from the Carolinas to the Gulf coast states to the Southern Plains. A rather weak ridge of sfc high pressure was located from the Ozarks vicinity into the Lower OH Valley in between this baroclinic zone to the south and a cold front extending from a sfc low in the UP of MI/Lake Superior to the mid MS Valley to Central Plains. Clear skies, lingering low level moisture with mid to upper 60s dewpoints, and light winds associated with the sfc ridging has allowed rather extensive fog formation overnight and this has become dense in several locations even outside of the typical deeper valleys as of 5 AM EDT. An SPS has been issued for this through 930 AM EDT. Today and tonight, the shortwave currently working across the Lower OH Valley region should cross the area through midday to early afternoon with mainly some passing clouds for eastern KY. However, the shortwave further upstream will move into the Central Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley during the afternoon to early evening. This will be preceded by the upstream cold front sweeping across western and central sections of the Commonwealth as the sfc low moves to the Lake Huron/Ontario vicinity. Once fog lifts and dissipates within about 3 hours of sunrise, solar insolation should result in highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s across eastern KY, with 70s above 2500 feet. Southwest flow ahead of the front should keep mixed dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s on average. Cooling aloft from the approaching shortwave and daytime heating should yield moderate instability 1500 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE with roughly 2000 to 3000 J/kg MUCAPE per 06Z RAP with at least 20 to 25KT of bulk shear. Unidirectional shear could support some hail up to around quarter size though mid level lapse rates of 6C/km or less should be a limiting factor. Strong to locally damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard from isolated to scattered convection that may organize into a couple of clusters or line segments. Several recent HRRR runs have a few wind gusts as high as 40 to 50KT the JKL CWA vicinity with late afternoon to early evening convection. SPC has placed most of the area in a Slight Risk for this and this has been highlighted in the HWO and will also be highlighted in social media and weatherstory posts. The shortwave shifts east of the area by late in the evening with the cold front moving across the Appalachians and should result in showers diminishing in all locations by midnight. Fog formation should again occur, with valleys and locations that pick up more substantial rainfall over the next 18 hours most favored for potentially dense areas. A sfc ridge of high pressure extending from Manitoba and Ontario to the mid MS Valley during the evening will begin to build into the area late tonight. This will be followed by a gradual trend in 500 mb heights on Sunday as the sfc ridge builds into the Lower OH Valley and parts of the TN Valley as well as Southern Appalachians. This will usher in an airmass more typical of a month from now with 850 mb temperatures trending down a couple of degrees C and dewpoints dropping off about 10 degrees mainly into the mid to upper 50s as PW drops to the 0.65 to 0.95 inch range or 5th to 20th percentile range per 00Z HREF mean. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 400 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 At the start of the long term period, the main story will be pleasant weather more reminiscent of early fall than late August. Upper level troughing will sit over the eastern CONUS, with a relatively vertically stacked low pressure system over Ontario. Meanwhile, to the southwest of the forecast area, upper level ridging will be centered over the Southern High Plains. At the surface, high pressure will sit over the Midwest, with winds generally light and northwesterly across eastern Kentucky; this will work to maintain the cooler and drier postfrontal air mass to begin the week. These light winds and a weak pressure gradient across the area will also allow for a modest ridge valley temperature split overnight Sunday into Monday morning, with typical valley fog formation. MOS guidance could be a bit aggressive with overnight lows for some spots, given lingering moisture, and low 50s for the coldest spots may be overdone. For most or all locations, low temperatures will likely range from the mid 50s in valley locations to the upper 50s or around 60 on the ridgetops. During the day on Monday, the upper level ridge will expand eastward somewhat. Associated height rises across the Ohio Valley should work to keep the forecast area dry, with temperatures rising into the upper 70s to low 80s. Thankfully, continued northwesterly winds will keep dewpoints blissfully low in the mid 50s. Overnight, low temperatures will again fall into the 50s, with a similar modest ridge valley temperature split and another night of river valley fog. On Tuesday, forecast uncertainty increases somewhat. The upper level trough axis will be well east of the area, with eastern Kentucky in a region of northwest flow aloft. Many models depict a shortwave traversing this flow, with fairly substantial spatial and timing differences; at present, the most likely outcome is that, at best, this energy delivers a glancing blow to the forecast area, relegating any rain chances to Tennessee. However, some deterministic model runs do suggest that an isolated shower or storm could be possible in our southwestern counties. Even so, a drier solution currently appears far more likely, and NBM PoPs are accordingly very low. More widespread rain chances may return to the forecast on Wednesday as a surface low originally over Oklahoma translates northeastward. A warm front associated with this low will attempt to lift towards the area; however, a cold front extending from another surface low over the Upper Midwest will loom to the west of the forecast area. Given the expected eastward progression of this cold front, there is significant uncertainty regarding how far north the warm front can progress before it is overtaken. Broadly, Wednesday and Thursday will feature increased moisture and a chance of showers and storms; however, any forecast details will remain dependent on the location, progression, and timing of these boundaries, and forecast uncertainty is very high at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 Fog formed in the valleys overnight and lifted into most of the TAF sites at least for a time. This fog has generally been the least persistent and intense near KIOB, with the rest of the sites experiencing at least a brief period of below airport min ceilings or visibility. This fog should lift and dissipate through about 14Z and give way to cumulus development by 16Z. A cold front and disturbance will approach during peak heating and result in isolated to scattered convection between about 17Z and 01Z. Some of the storms could contain strong to damaging wind gusts and some gusts in the 30 to 40KT range if not locally higher are not out of the question. PROB30 groups were included for a few hours at all sites for the potential for thunder on station for a brief period. Any convection could bring brief reductions to IFR if not lower. Winds will be light and variable to begin the period, but become WSW to W at 5 to 10KT between 14Z and 00Z. Winds will trend to the northwest behind the front between 00Z and 06Z and slacken. Some fog development is favored during the last 6 hours of the period and IFR or lower reductions for areas mainly south of KSYM and KIOB are possible per guidance as high pressure builds in behind the front. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...HEF AVIATION...JP  339 FXUS65 KBOU 221155 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 555 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat eases, along with an increase in shower and storm coverage this weekend. - Highest coverage of showers and storms expected today, along with a few severe storms on the plains this afternoon and evening and then again Sunday. - Gradual drying next week, but continued storm chances through at least Wednesday or Thursday. Slight cooling but temperatures still above normal. && .DISCUSSION /Through Friday/... Issued at 249 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A slight cooldown is expected today after Friday's record breaking heat. While temperatures are still expected to remain above normal, we should only see highs range from the mid 80s to the low 90s across the lower elevations before afternoon showers and storms bring some heat relief. Not much has changed in today's forecast, as we still expect today to bring this week's best chance for wetting rains as PWATs are expected to be around 150% of normal. Instability will increase today, with high-res models showing a wide range of values (600-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE). Despite these models having inconsistent MLCAPE values, they are in fairly good agreement that the best environment for severe storms will be along a line from the Cheyenne Ridge southeastward across the plains, just east of DIA. As storms are expected to remain high-based as they move off the higher terrain, they will be capable of producing gusty outflows, with a few strong to severe gusts expected throughout the afternoon and evening as storms move across the plains. With the above normal PWATs in place, we could have a few localized heavier rains too. Additionally, mid-level lapse rates will be sufficiently steep (8-9 C/km) to support an isolated hail threat. 0-6 km shear will be marginal (~30 kts), but enough to support potential for storm organization. The upper-level ridge is still expected to flatten out on Sunday and Monday as a shortwave tracks east out of the Pacific Northwest. While moisture isn't expected to be as robust as today, PWATs are still expected to be around 120% to 130% of normal each afternoon that will support afternoon showers and storms, with a few strong to severe storms possible each afternoon, and above normal temperatures persisting before a chance at sub 90 degree highs returns Tuesday and Wednesday. The latest ensembles keep above normal PWATs in place through the week though a gradual drying is still expected. This will keep at least isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms possible through the week. The upper-level ridge is then expected to rebuild, bringing temperatures right back into the 90s across the plains to end the work week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday/... Issued at 531 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Drainage winds are still expected to turn clockwise and land in a northeast flow across all TAF sites by early this afternoon (16-18Z). Greater storm coverage is expected this afternoon compared to yesterday, with storms expected to move off the higher elevations between 20-22Z and continue through late tonight (5-6Z), though coverage and intensity will decrease significantly between 2-3Z as the brunt of showers/storms move to the eastern plains. Gusty winds are expected with passing storms, with gusts between 35-45 kts possible, but can't rule out a severe storm passing over or near the TAF sites (most likely just east of KDEN). Storms are expected to be high-based, with guidance showing CIG staying above 8,000-9,000 feet AGL at their lowest. Like Friday night, can't rule out an outflow or two making their way across the TAF sites after storms have diminished/pushed east that could disrupt or delay drainage winds from taking hold, but south to southwesterly winds are expected to settle in for the overnight hours. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...9 AVIATION...9  445 FXUS64 KEPZ 221156 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 556 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 532 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain on Saturday. Thunderstorm chances will diminish this weekend as upper level high pressure builds closer to the area. - Above normal temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas through the week ahead. Lowland highs will be in the upper 90s to lower 100s, which will approach daily records. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 High pressure aloft centered over the Southern Rockies will be the primary driver of our weather pattern over the next several days. Thunderstorm development through the weekend will be driven by recycled moisture under this upper high, with less and less coverage each day as drier air moves in. The main headline will be above normal temperatures, which looks to stay in place through the rest of August. Lowland highs consistently in the 98-102 degree range will run 8-10 degrees above normal for late August and near daily records. Currently no daily record for El Paso in the forecast, but were only 1-2 degrees off most days going forward. Earlier this evening we saw isolated showers and thunderstorms across southwest New Mexico. Sounding PWs were 1.0-1.1, with barely enough instability (400-800 J/kg), and a mix of convective temperature/terrain forcing. Storms were quite weak, with 10-20% coverage over the lowlands and more notable winners being the southwestern rim of the Sacramento Mountain and southern Black Range. For Saturday, expect more of this weak convective activity, only another tick lower in coverage. Lowland chances fall below 5%, especially for the I-10 corridor. Any storms that do form will favor the high elevations, popping around noon and diminishing prior to sunset. Best chances will focus over Grant County. Storms will be capable of brief downpours and gusty winds up to 45 mph. Sunday will be even drier, with very spotty mountain showers and almost no action for lowland zones. Upper high drifts east directly over the Southern High Plains into early next week, leading to a near-total shut off of moisture flow and the end of storm chances area wide. Precipitable water values 0.8-1.0 will fall below the climate normals and strong (and very warm) subsident flow within the 400-600mb layer aloft will hinder updraft development. The primary monsoonal plume will be pushed west across Arizona and the Colorado River valley. This pattern looks to remain in place through next week, leading to an extended period of late-August dryness and heat. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Isolated showers persist N of KLRU and KDMN this morning, drifting westward. The activity should fizzle out after sunrise, followed by isolated TS over high terrain this afternoon. KTCS is most likely among terminals to see a storm in the area, but only about 10%. Winds remain AOB 8kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 532 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Fire weather concerns will be low through next week. Isolated showers and storms develop over area mountains this afternoon with less coverage and intensity than yesterday. Gusty winds to 40 mph and brief downpours are the main threats. Prevailing winds will be light from the east-southeast today. Dry conditions are expected for the lowlands with very warm temperatures. The upper high moves more overhead next week, largely shutting off rain/storm chances. Only slight storm chances remain over high terrain as modest SE flow persists. Temperatures stay above normal, approaching record highs. ERC's are forecast to climb towards the 75th %-ile. Min RHs will be 10-15% in the lowlands; 20-35% in the mtns today, then 15-30%. Vent rates will be fair to good in mtns today, good to excellent in lowlands; then good to very good. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 100 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 66 96 67 98 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 69 99 68 100 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 70 99 71 101 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 52 76 54 78 / 0 0 0 10 Truth or Consequences 71 98 71 99 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 64 92 64 94 / 30 0 0 10 Deming 71 100 69 101 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 71 99 70 100 / 10 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 76 100 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 69 100 69 101 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 74 103 74 105 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 68 94 69 96 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 73 101 72 102 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 73 99 71 100 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 74 100 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 70 99 70 100 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 71 102 70 103 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 74 100 72 102 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 68 98 68 99 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 57 89 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 56 87 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 55 86 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 61 90 61 91 / 20 10 0 0 Hillsboro 69 97 69 99 / 10 0 0 0 Spaceport 68 98 68 100 / 10 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 58 91 58 92 / 30 10 0 10 Hurley 66 95 65 97 / 20 0 0 0 Cliff 66 100 67 100 / 30 0 0 0 Mule Creek 64 96 65 97 / 30 10 10 0 Faywood 68 94 67 96 / 20 0 0 0 Animas 70 99 70 100 / 10 0 0 0 Hachita 70 98 69 99 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 69 98 68 98 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 66 93 66 93 / 10 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson  540 FXUS65 KVEF 221159 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 459 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Above normal temperatures continue through next week. * Isolated storm chances linger into early next week, with best chances in northwestern Arizona and the southern Great Basin. && .DISCUSSION...through Friday. Ensemble guidance keeps the ridge of high pressure centered generally over southern NM through the forecast period. Any "cooling" that would otherwise result from subtle height falls will largely be offset by increased vertical mixing thanks to the southwest flow aloft. As a result, temperatures remain fairly steady with just a subtle cooldown possible Monday and Tuesday as moisture tries to creep back into the southeastern half of the CWA. Latest forecast has highs 2-8 degrees above normal, with the greatest anomalies across the eastern half of the area (closer to the high). Overnight lows remain relatively oppressive across the Mojave Desert as values range from 80-92 degrees. This keeps major heatrisk in Death Valley, the Las Vegas Valley, the Colorado River Valley, and southern Mohave County through Sunday. After the subtle reprieve on Monday-Tuesday, major to extreme heatrisk looks to return to these locations. A shortwave moving into the PacNW will reshape the ridge, resulting in a transition from southerly to more southwesterly flow overhead. This will reduce moisture across most of the CWA and promote more isolated convective activity through the weekend. Best chances (10- 20%) across the southern Great Basin and northwestern AZ. An influx of moisture early next week may spur increased coverage across our southeastern areas, but uncertainty remains. From mid-week and beyond, moisture drops back down and stays at modest levels, at best promoting isolated storm chances in northwestern AZ. Given the limited moisture, main concerns with any convection will be gusty outflow winds and dry lightning. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Winds will become variable early this morning, with a brief southeasterly shift mid- to late morning with intermittent gusts to 12-15KT expected. Through early afternoon, winds veer to the southwest, increasing to 10-12KT with gusts to around 20KT through sunset. Gusts diminish thereafter, with winds remaining southerly to southwesterly through the end of the period. VFR conditions will continue with no operationally significant cloud cover expected. Temperatures will exceed 100 degrees from 18Z-03Z, reaching a high of 108 degrees this afternoon. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Light and variable winds this morning will veer to the south-southwest by early afternoon with gusts to around 20KT common. Gusts will diminish after sunset, with winds becoming lighter and settling out of typical patterns overnight. An exception to this includes across the western Mojave Desert/KDAG, where winds generally remain westerly, with gusts to around 25KT expected from late afternoon into tonight, as well as the northern Owens Valley/KBIH, where gusty up-valley winds will shift to the west around sunset. Isolated thunderstorms are expected today, mainly over the higher terrain of the southern Great Basin and northwestern Arizona, with gusty outflow winds and lightning strikes the main concerns. Confidence in any direct impacts at area terminals remains low at this time. VFR conditions prevail. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Woods AVIATION...Phillipson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter