627 FXUS65 KMSO 221000 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 400 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Strong to severe thunderstorms today through the afternoon and evening. - Cold front Sunday brings cooler temperatures but strong westerly winds and very dry air. - Ridge rebuilds into next week. Light rain showers this morning depicted on radar continue to expand northward. The main convective event develops this afternoon around and after 2pm MDT. Storms will generally track from southwest to northeast. A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms covers the region, with damaging wind gusts toward 60 mph remaining the primary hazard of concern alongside small hail and frequent lightning. High precipitable water values entering the region under monsoonal flow will support brief heavy rainfall under stronger showers and storms bringing localized threats for excessive runoff and flash flooding over urban areas and within steep terrain and burn scars. Lingering showers and isolated convection will persist through the overnight as the strong to severe thunderstorm threat begins to diminish. A cold front crossed the Northern Rockies late tonight into Sunday, ushering in a brief temperature respite with daytime highs dropping 10 to 15 degrees to near seasonal averages. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind the front will drive strong westerly winds within the very dry post-frontal airmass. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated across the region on Sunday. High pressure rebuilds early next week marking the return of hot daytime temperatures and generally dry conditions. Near-daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms will remain possible in southwestern Montana and Lemhi County. Ensemble cluster analysis shows moderately high confidence (70%) in a progressive pattern returning to the region by mid-to-late next week, though details about timing and strength of any inbound troughing remain uncertain at this time. && .AVIATION...Morning light rain showers will yield to strong afternoon and evening thunderstorms tracking southwest to northeast between 22/2000Z and 23/0400Z. Localized direct impacts from convection will bring erratic outflow wind gusts of 30 to 50 knots, small hail, brief heavy rainfall causing localized MVFR/IFR visibility, along with LLWS and turbulence near storm cores. Strong westerly winds develop post-frontally on Sunday on an otherwise dry and less-problematic day for aviation. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through Sunday morning for Flathead Reservation...Kootenai...West Lolo. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for Deerlodge/West Beaverhead...East Beaverhead. ID...None. && $$  727 FXUS65 KSLC 221001 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 401 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1019 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026... - Monsoonal moisture will continue to spread across Utah and southwest Wyoming through Saturday, bringing an increased threat of thunderstorms that could produce heavy rainfall capable of flash flooding. - Moisture will decrease somewhat Sunday into Monday, with the potential for more substantial drying for at least northern Utah and southwest Wyoming late in the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1019 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026... An elongated ridge of high pressure is centered roughly over the Four Corners region this evening. The resultant southerly flow aloft has allowed for monsoon moisture to spread northward across the southern three-quarters of the forecast area. Satellite derived PWs indicate values of 1.0 inch or above for that part of the area, with the moisture continuing to move northward. Embedded shortwave energy in the flow is allowing an area of showers and thunderstorms to continue tonight over central Utah, with the showers continuing to track northward for the remainder of this evening and into the early part of the overnight hours before dissipating. With ample moisture in place tomorrow, will see another round of scattered showers develop during the afternoon. Absent a well defined forcing mechanism, these will be primarily focused over the higher terrain. This will tend to limit the potential for valley convective activity, but would not be surprised to see a few showers pop up away from the terrain. Forcing is expected to be enhanced again during the evening and early overnight hours, this time from a frontal boundary ejecting from a Pacific Northwest storm system. Given the front will be very much outrunning its associated forcing, think associated precipitation will be scattered in nature, primarily focused over northwest Utah. The front is expected to bring a very slight dip in temperatures Sunday or northern portions of the area, bringing highs within 5F of seasonal normals. However, its passage combined with flattening of the ridge as the Pacific Northwest system tracks over the top of it will add a westerly component to the flow aloft, advecting some drier air in through Monday. This does not look to be substantial drying by any means, but there is a high chance of some areas seeing PWs as low as the 0.6 to 0.8 inch range, which could bring minimum relative humidity values back close to critical values for portions of western Utah. This could also act to decrease coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but as we saw earlier this week, there's a good chance that the decrease would not be substantial. Spread in the guidance increase quite a bit for the middle to latter part of the week, putting confidence in the long term forecast a bit lower than usual. For Wednesday into Thursday, another Pacific Northwest trough is expected to move over the top of the Four Corners ridge, and ensembles seem to be struggling with how much the trough interacts with the ridge. Some guidance (the GFS, for example) shows only minor flattening of the ridge, which would keep at least some moisture over most of the area into the upcoming weekend. However, in solutions where the interaction brings more substantial flattening of the ridge (e.g. the latest EC), the more zonal flow would bring more dramatic drying. Will wait and see where things end up landing. && .AVIATION, Issued 1019 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026... KSLC, Issued 1019 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026... The SLC terminal will see VFR conditions through the night with cigs expected to stay above 6000 ft AGL. An area of showers with a few thunderstorms is expected to move across the terminal beginning between05Z and 06Z and lasting through the early part of the overnight hours. There is a 40-50 percent chance of gusty and erratic winds as this moves through and a 10 percent chance of lightning impacting the terminal. Southerly winds are expected to shift to the north tomorrow between 19Z and 21Z with a 20 percent chance of additional showers and thunderstorms impacting the terminal during the afternoon and early evening. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected across the airspace through the overnight hours. An area of showers with a few thunderstorms over central Utah will move across northern portions of the airspace through the first part of the early morning before dissipating. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Saturday afternoon and evening, primarily focused over the higher terrain. Any of these storms will be capable of bringing lightning, brief mountain obscurations, and brief MVFR conditions in heavier rainfall. && .FIRE WEATHER...Light rain continues to linger across northern Utah that will dissipate by early morning. Moisture will remain elevated across the region with more storms developing Saturday afternoon. Most models have the southern 1/3rd of Utah remaining relatively dry today with most of the activity across central and northern Utah. These storms that develop today will likely weaken and linger into the overnight hours across northern Utah, similar to the activity that occurred tonight. These afternoon storms will be capable of frequent lightning along with gusty and erratic winds. After today moisture will gradually start to decrease across the region, particularly across southern Utah. Precipitation chances will remain through midweek before flow aloft becomes more westerly during the second half of the week. This will bring much drier air into the area with minimum relative humidity decreasing back into the teens with recoveries in the 30s and 40s. Winds will also be increasing as conditions dry. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Heat Advisory until 7 AM MDT this morning for UTZ101>106. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Traphagan AVIATION...Traphagan FIRE WEATHER...Mahan For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  877 FXPQ50 PGUM 221003 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 803 PM ChST Sat Aug 22 2026 .Marianas Synopsis... Typhoon Saudel is currently moving over Agrihan, and another tropical disturbance continues to strengthen northwest of Yap. This will maintain the persistent southwest monsoon flow over the next few days. && .Discussion... Typhoon Saudel is currently moving over Agrihan, and will pass through the Mariana chain over the next few hours. However, Invest 97W northwest of Yap is strengthening. This will prolong and intensify the persistent southwest monsoon, with locally heavy rainfall developing from Guam northward to Rota over the next 72 hours. This will allow the southwest monsoon flow to actually strengthen, especially Sunday through Monday night for Guam and the south central CNMI. MIMIC water vapor imagery shows the higher precipitable water values moving north across Guam and it's coastal waters, with the previously drier air from Rota to Saipan moistening. This may allow heavier rainfall to develop, even if showers are more scattered in coverage tonight and Sunday. With this in mind, the new forecast package attempts to convey this, along for increasing potential area-wide Sunday night into Tuesday. && .Marine... Fresh to locally strong southwest winds will continue across the coastal waters with combined seas around 7 to 10 feet expected through the rest of the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for all zones through Sunday afternoon. The High Risk of Rip Currents and High Surf Advisory was dropped from the east-facing reefs this afternoon, but north and west-facing reefs were added as swells from Typhoon Saudel and developing Invest 97W build throughout the waters. Hazardous surf along these reefs and dangerous rip currents can be expected through at least Sunday afternoon. Othwerise, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected through midweek, with locally heavy showers possible. && .Tropical Systems... As of 700 PM ChST, 0900 UTC, the center of Typhoon Saudel (17W) was located near 19N145E just northwest of Agrihan. The System continues to move northwest, now slowing its forward speed to 10 mph. The maximum sustained winds have increased, now to 110 mph near the center. Saudel will continue on this trajectory to then slowly shift to the west-northwest, accelerating once again through Sunday and further intensify as it continues to move away from the Marianas. A tropical disturbance, known as JTWC's Invest 97W, is currently centered near 11N136E northwest of Yap and well north-northeast of Palau. The system is labeled as a Medium, which means that development into a significant tropical cyclone is likely, but not within the next 24 hours. Most of the convection associated with this feature is concentrated within the western flanks interacting and enhancing a monsoon surge, that will continue to produce inclement weather across Palau tonight. The system is expected to continue moving away to the north and then to the northeast, following a favorable environment while pivoting toward departing TY Saudel well to the northeast, with some resemblance of a distant Fujiwara Effect. This is expected to help further prime the environment around the Marianas for another tropical disturbance to potentially develop in the area, bringing in another period of heavy rainfall to the region next week (more details in the Hydrology Section). && .Hydrology... Model guidance suggests that another tropical disturbance is becoming more likely to develop in the area next week, in the wake of TY Saudel's exit from the region, followed by decreasing wind shear assisted by the extensive monsoon trough and aforementioned 97W's movement nearby. This disturbance is forecast to bring heavy rainfall to the Marianas with ensemble guidance suggesting rainfall totals of 4 to 7 inches possible. Periods of heavy rainfall will help to saturate soils and increase mudslide potential during mid to late week. Residents on the Marianas need to closely monitor this developing situation as flood watches, advisories, and flash flood warnings may be issued later. && .Eastern Micronesia... A broad tropical disturbance to the east of Majuro and a large northwesterly inflow into the system continue to bring unsettled weather to Majuro and are building into Kosrae and Pohnpei tonight and tomorrow night respectively. Numerous locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms may become widespread tonight for Majuro. Precipitation looks to remain elevated until the system drifts northwest out of the area sometime Monday. Winds will also be elevated and potentially peaking at 25 kts. This will lead to elevated sea heights that are expected to remain below hazardous levels at this time. By Monday, conditions will likely dry out temporarily. For Kosrae, the monsoonal inflow will increase shower coverage for Sunday and Monday with gusty winds possible in any thunderstorms. Pohnpei is also expected to see increased shower coverage but to a slightly lesser extent, with locally heavy rainfall still possible. These showers and isolated thunderstorms may lessen by Tuesday as the monsoonal flow slowly drifts back northward. Combined seas are currently 5 to 6 feet across all the islands and will remain fairly steady except for Majuro which may experience up to 6 to 8 foot seas sometime on Monday. && .Western Micronesia... As the aforementioned 97W continues moving away from the region to the north-northwest, it will drag the enhanced southwesterly monsoonal flow along with it, allowing conditions to improve significantly across Palau and Yap. As such, the monsoon surge from days prior is no longer expected to produce significant rainfall and sustained fresh to strong westerlies across Yap, but likely to continue bringing strong to near-gale westerlies to Palau in the first few hours tonight before tapering down thereafter. Preliminary estimates indicate more than 18 inches of rain has fallen at Yap during this rain event, with much less over Palau. As Typhoon Saudel (17W) and Invest 97W continue to drag the aforementioned monsoonal flow and associated moisture northward, this will introduce slightly diffusive flow to Palau that may bring periods of dry spells the next several days. Mid to long-term guidance indicates a reigniting monsoon surge across eastern Yap State and potentially the Marianas before the middle of next week, so residents of Yap should continue to monitor this development as we head into next week. While moist westerlies are expected to continue at Chuuk for most of the forecast period, a tropical ridge is expected to anchor itself just north of the Equator, allowing Chuuk to fall in between the convectively active pattern hugging 10N and the ridge to the south. This will allow patchy showers and some thunderstorms to form at Chuuk for much of the forecast period, followed by a dry spell in the second half of next week as a larger buffer circulation induces more diffusive flow. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for GUZ001. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST Sunday for GUZ001. MP...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for MPZ001>003. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST Sunday for MPZ002-003. Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM ChST Sunday for PMZ153-154. && $$ Marianas: Doll/Whisnant East Micronesia: Ogle West Micronesia/Tropical/Marianas: Montvila Hydrology: Whisnant  193 FXUS63 KIWX 221009 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 609 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances (30-50 percent)for showers and thunderstorms today. A few strong storms are possible east of Interstate 69 this afternoon and evening. - Hazardous swimming conditions are expected on Lake MI beaches along Berrien Co, MI and La Porte County, IN this weekend. Dangerous waves and currents are expected. Monitor the beach forecast for updates. - Dry conditions return Sunday night into Wednesday afternoon. Highs will be in the 70s and low 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 607 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A cold front extending from low pressure over MI is draped across our CWA from Three Rivers, MI down into White County, IN. Showers and storms have formed along this boundary, with one stronger storm near Wabash/Whitley/Kosciusko County lines as of this writing. The front will drift eastward through the afternoon, with a second shortwave/trough moving in behind it. This will lead to additional storms in NW OH this afternoon/eve as we destabilize. Otherwise, highs will be in the 70s, low 80s with gusty northwest winds. The surface low/low aloft sinks into southern Ontario by Sun Eve/Mon Am, with our area in persistent northwest flow. There are low chances for showers and storms (20-35 percent) on Sunday before we are trapped beneath the upper level ridge. Dry conditions persist into Wednesday afternoon before another broad trough encompasses the upper Great Lakes Wed eve into next Saturday. Northwest flow of 15-20 knots with gusts up to around 25 knots on Lake MI through the next couple of days will build waves to 3 to 6 feet today into Sunday, with dangerous currents possible. Maintained the going beach hazards statement, and extended the small craft advisory. There may be a lull in the wave/wind activity later tonight before waves climb up again on Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 156 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Expect predominantly VFR to MVFR conditions at the terminals, with quick periods of IFR possible. A cold front will pass from west to east through the period, with potential for showers, storms, and BR/Fog development. So far this evening has been fairly quiet with respect to t-storm activity along the cold front just west of Lake MI. Have tempos in for any showers/storms and 3-5SM BR, first at KSBN then at KFWA. MVFR ceilings move in behind the front and then eventually break to VFR by mid-late afternoon. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM CDT this morning through Sunday evening for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 11 AM EDT this morning through Sunday evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...MCD  841 FXPQ50 PGUM 221015 CCA AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Tiyan GU 815 PM ChST Sat Aug 22 2026 Corrected Tropical Systems section for TCFA and other bulletin references. .Marianas Synopsis... Typhoon Saudel is currently moving over Agrihan, and another tropical disturbance continues to strengthen northwest of Yap. This will maintain the persistent southwest monsoon flow over the next few days. && .Discussion... Typhoon Saudel is currently moving over Agrihan, and will pass through the Mariana chain over the next few hours. However, Invest 97W northwest of Yap is strengthening. This will prolong and intensify the persistent southwest monsoon, with locally heavy rainfall developing from Guam northward to Rota over the next 72 hours. This will allow the southwest monsoon flow to actually strengthen, especially Sunday through Monday night for Guam and the south central CNMI. MIMIC water vapor imagery shows the higher precipitable water values moving north across Guam and it's coastal waters, with the previously drier air from Rota to Saipan moistening. This may allow heavier rainfall to develop, even if showers are more scattered in coverage tonight and Sunday. With this in mind, the new forecast package attempts to convey this, along for increasing potential area-wide Sunday night into Tuesday. && .Marine... Fresh to locally strong southwest winds will continue across the coastal waters with combined seas around 7 to 10 feet expected through the rest of the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for all zones through Sunday afternoon. The High Risk of Rip Currents and High Surf Advisory was dropped from the east-facing reefs this afternoon, but north and west-facing reefs were added as swells from Typhoon Saudel and developing Invest 97W build throughout the waters. Hazardous surf along these reefs and dangerous rip currents can be expected through at least Sunday afternoon. Othwerise, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected through midweek, with locally heavy showers possible. && .Tropical Systems... As of 700 PM ChST, 0900 UTC, the center of Typhoon Saudel (17W) was located near 19N145E just northwest of Agrihan. The System continues to move northwest, now slowing its forward speed to 10 mph. The maximum sustained winds have increased, now to 110 mph near the center. Saudel will continue on this trajectory to then slowly shift to the west-northwest, accelerating once again through Sunday and further intensify as it continues to move away from the Marianas. A tropical disturbance, known as JTWC's Invest 97W, is currently centered near 11N136E northwest of Yap and well north-northeast of Palau. The system is a subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) by JTWC, which means that tropical cyclone development is expected with the next 24 hours. Most of the convection associated with this feature is concentrated within the western flanks interacting and enhancing a monsoon surge, that will continue to produce inclement weather across Palau tonight. The system is expected to continue moving away to the north and then to the northeast, following a favorable environment while pivoting toward departing TY Saudel well to the northeast, with some resemblance of a distant Fujiwara Effect. This is expected to help further prime the environment around the Marianas for another tropical disturbance to potentially develop in the area, bringing in another period of heavy rainfall to the region next week (more details in the Hydrology Section). For more information on Typhoon Saudel (17W), please refer to the Tropical Cyclone Warning from JTWC under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW, and the TC Public Advisory from the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM. For more information on Invest 97W, see bulletins issued by the JTWC under WMO headers WTPN21 PGTW for the TCFA, and ABPW10 PGTW for the prognostic reasoning. && .Hydrology... Model guidance suggests that another tropical disturbance is becoming more likely to develop in the area next week, in the wake of TY Saudel's exit from the region, followed by decreasing wind shear assisted by the extensive monsoon trough and aforementioned 97W's movement nearby. This disturbance is forecast to bring heavy rainfall to the Marianas with ensemble guidance suggesting rainfall totals of 4 to 7 inches possible. Periods of heavy rainfall will help to saturate soils and increase mudslide potential during mid to late week. Residents on the Marianas need to closely monitor this developing situation as flood watches, advisories, and flash flood warnings may be issued later. && .Eastern Micronesia... A broad tropical disturbance to the east of Majuro and a large northwesterly inflow into the system continue to bring unsettled weather to Majuro and are building into Kosrae and Pohnpei tonight and tomorrow night respectively. Numerous locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms may become widespread tonight for Majuro. Precipitation looks to remain elevated until the system drifts northwest out of the area sometime Monday. Winds will also be elevated and potentially peaking at 25 kts. This will lead to elevated sea heights that are expected to remain below hazardous levels at this time. By Monday, conditions will likely dry out temporarily. For Kosrae, the monsoonal inflow will increase shower coverage for Sunday and Monday with gusty winds possible in any thunderstorms. Pohnpei is also expected to see increased shower coverage but to a slightly lesser extent, with locally heavy rainfall still possible. These showers and isolated thunderstorms may lessen by Tuesday as the monsoonal flow slowly drifts back northward. Combined seas are currently 5 to 6 feet across all the islands and will remain fairly steady except for Majuro which may experience up to 6 to 8 foot seas sometime on Monday. && .Western Micronesia... As the aforementioned 97W continues moving away from the region to the north-northwest, it will drag the enhanced southwesterly monsoonal flow along with it, allowing conditions to improve significantly across Palau and Yap. As such, the monsoon surge from days prior is no longer expected to produce significant rainfall and sustained fresh to strong westerlies across Yap, but likely to continue bringing strong to near-gale westerlies to Palau in the first few hours tonight before tapering down thereafter. Preliminary estimates indicate more than 18 inches of rain has fallen at Yap during this rain event, with much less over Palau. As Typhoon Saudel (17W) and Invest 97W continue to drag the aforementioned monsoonal flow and associated moisture northward, this will introduce slightly diffusive flow to Palau that may bring periods of dry spells the next several days. Mid to long-term guidance indicates a reigniting monsoon surge across eastern Yap State and potentially the Marianas before the middle of next week, so residents of Yap should continue to monitor this development as we head into next week. While moist westerlies are expected to continue at Chuuk for most of the forecast period, a tropical ridge is expected to anchor itself just north of the Equator, allowing Chuuk to fall in between the convectively active pattern hugging 10N and the ridge to the south. This will allow patchy showers and some thunderstorms to form at Chuuk for much of the forecast period, followed by a dry spell in the second half of next week as a larger buffer circulation induces more diffusive flow. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for GUZ001. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST Sunday for GUZ001. MP...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for MPZ001>003. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST Sunday for MPZ002-003. Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM ChST Sunday for PMZ153-154. && $$ Marianas: Doll/Whisnant East Micronesia: Ogle West Micronesia/Tropical/Marianas: Montvila Hydrology: Whisnant  871 FXUS61 KAKQ 221016 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 616 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Slight (level 2/5) excessive rain risk downgraded to a Marginal (level 1/5) risk for eastern VA and the MD Eastern Shore && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and some embedded storms are likely today, especially near the Chesapeake Bay and on the Eastern Shore. While severe weather is not expected, localized flash flooding will be possible. 2) Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection returns by the middle to latter part of the week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 305 AM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and some embedded storms are likely today, especially near the Chesapeake Bay and on the Eastern Shore. While severe weather is not expected, localized flash flooding will be possible. A weak stationary boundary remains just south of the forecast area this morning, roughly aligned along the NC/SC coast. There is also a broad trough axis aloft across most of the eastern CONUS. Locally, there is a ribbon of mostly light rain across the northern/northwest portions of the area. This conflicts with several earlier runs of various CAMS which depicted rather widespread overnight showers and storms, particularly across SE VA and NE NC. In fact, these areas are actually quite stable as of this writing with sfc temps in the lower 70s and dew points in the upper 60s, which yields low/near-zero sfc-based and MUCAPE. Any appreciable instability remains confined to our S, in closer proximity to the front. Therefore, really don't see much convective activity developing through around sunrise. The front will (eventually) lift northward as we head into this afternoon. Model and WPC progs also depict weak low pressure developing in the vicinity of the Chesapeake Bay and Eastern Shore. This, combined with some low-level convergence, should be sufficient for showers to develop in these areas by late this afternoon and afternoon. Instability looks quite meager, especially early on in the day, so am not expecting widespread thunderstorms at this time. A moist atmospheric column (PWATS ~2.1" across the E/SE) and slow- moving activity will support a continued heavy rain and localized flash flooding risk. The 00z HREF also depicted a relatively impressive signal for heavy rain and some flash flooding in the Eastern Shore vicinity. However, all of the 00z members that comprised the ensemble suite are currently handling the ongoing activity extremely poorly. Therefore, confidence in the evolution of convection later today is low and some recent runs of the CAMs are less bullish about the overall coverage of showers and the associated heavy rain signal. WPC has removed the targeted "Slight" excessive rainfall risk (which was in place for eastern VA and the MD Eastern Shore) and replaced it with a broad "Marginal" risk. In summary, localized pockets of very heavy rain are possible, but the exact location is uncertain and the coverage may tend to be on the low side. All of this precludes the need for any Flood Watch at this time. Late this evening, convection from the Great Lakes and OH Valley, associated with the primary cold front and trough, could approach our Piedmont counties. However, diminishing instability and reduced forcing with eastward extent should allow for most of this activity to diminish as it moves eastward tonight. Outside of any precip, temps will be quite "cool" for mid-late August and only in the upper 70s-lower 80s (some mid 80s possible SE). Skies will average mostly cloudy, with some clearing possible W of I-95 this afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection returns by the middle to latter part of the week. The weak front will finally move offshore late Sunday, as the main upper level trough axis shifts offshore and surface high pressure builds into the SE CONUS. The surface high will usher in a drier airmass with seasonable temperatures in the 80s and dew points in the 60s Sunday into early next week. A reinforcing intrusion of dry air is likely Monday night/Tuesday with dew points in the 50s looking likely (except 60s far SE). The high is progged to break down by Wed/Thu, with unsettled conditions and isolated- scattered aftn/evening convection returning mid to late week. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 615 AM EDT Saturday... A frontal boundary remains just south of the area as of 10z, with most sites (stubbornly) remaining VFR. Still expect a period of lower CIGs at the terminals for a time this morning, especially at/near RIC and there could be very localized IFR CIGs. Additionally, the coverage of showers/storms is expected to increase over the next few hours and especially after 12z. While strong-severe storms are not expected today, IFR VSBYs are possible in any heavier showers. Remaining unsettled heading into the later half of the day with continued showers/storms expected (best chance SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG). CIGs should remain MVFR through most of the morning and should gradually lift to VFR by this afternoon and especially this evening. SBY potentially stays sub-VFR most of the day. Drying out tonight with VFR conditions returning, though can't rule out some patchy fog inland. Outlook: Drying out tonight with VFR conditions returning Sunday morning through Monday. Some patchy fog could occur inland around or after 06z Sunday. && .MARINE... As of 305 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Generally benign marine conditions are expected through the weekend into early next week. - Showers and occasional thunderstorms are expected today, with diminishing chances of showers and thunderstorms Sunday into early next week. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail this weekend through much of next week. Weak high pressure is centered over Atlantic Canada early this morning, with a weak trough off the NC Outer Banks. The wind is E 5-10kt. Seas are 2-3ft, with ~1ft waves in the Ches. Bay. A weak trough lingers offshore today as a warm front lifts across the Mid-Atlantic coast. An E wind is forecast to increase to 10-15kt across the northern coastal/offshore waters this morning, before becoming SE ~10kt this aftn. Elsewhere, generally an E/SE wind ~10kt for the Ches. Bay, SE/S 5-10kt for the southern coastal/offshore waters, tidal rivers, and Currituck Sound. Numerous showers/tstms are expected today as the warm front lifts across the waters. The wind becomes SW 5-10kt tonight ahead of a weak cold front, which cross the coast early Sunday resulting in a wind shift to W 5-10kt. Another weak cold front crosses the coast early Monday with a brief wind shift to NW, before becoming W/SW with speeds remaining less than 10kt. Yet another weak cold front crosses the coast early Tuesday resulting in a brief wind shift to NNW. High pressure settles off the Southeast coast mid to late next week resulting in S/SW flow at or below 15kt. Seas are expected to be 2ft to occasionally 3ft for the next week, with 1ft to occasionally 2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. A low rip risk will be maintained today, Sunday, and Monday. There is a period of increased onshore flow for the northern beaches this morning. However, the swell direction will be ~50 degrees for shore normal, which should result in more of a longshore current. This combined with shorter period nearshore waves should keep the rip risk at low for the northernbeaches today. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ERI/SW AVIATION...SW MARINE...AJZ  866 FXUS65 KBOI 221015 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 415 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Weak Pacific cold front will bring isolated thunderstorms to the area Saturday afternoon and evening. - Gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph possible from thunderstorms. - Dry and slightly cooler conditions Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Monday Night/... A cold front will slowly move across central OR today into southwest ID this evening. Showers and thunderstorms expected ahead of the cold front, mainly across southwest ID and far eastern OR. The best dynamics for thunderstorms today will be generally be east of a line from Baker City OR to Jordan Valley OR, with enough effective bulk shear for organized thunderstorm development. Shower and thunderstorm threat continues into the late evening into early Sunday morning before drier air moves in by late Sunday morning. Slightly cooler temperatures expected on Sunday with dry conditions. Isolated thunderstorms possible along the NV border south of Twin Falls Sunday afternoon. A weak shortwave embedded in the southwest flow aloft will bring increased clouds on Monday with slightly cooler temperatures. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will generally be confined to the higher terrain of southwest ID Monday afternoon. Gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph possible with thunderstorms each day. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/... A trough off the Pac NW coast pushes the monsoon moisture east on Tuesday with drier air, breezy conditions and slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday through Friday. Temperatures will around 2-5 degrees above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /06Z Saturday through Sunday/... Issued 1223 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026 Generally VFR. Areas of wildfire smoke. Scattered showers/virga exiting to the N around 22/09Z. Activity capable of erratic outflows to 25-40 kt and blowing dust reducing vis. Then, scattered storms returning Sat PM, with 30-50 kt outflows and locally heavy rain/MVFR. High density altitude with heat in the afternoon. Surface winds outside of storms: variable 5-15 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. Around 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms impacting terminal Saturday late afternon-evening. Outflows to 30-45 kt possible. Surface winds: variable or southeast 5-15 kt. Sunday Outlook...Generally VFR. Areas of wildfire smoke. Shower and thunderstorm activity in southwest/central Idaho diminishing early Sunday AM. Isolated storms returning near KTWF in the afternoon. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt with afternoon gusts 15-25 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Red Flag Warning from noon today to midnight MDT tonight for IDZ401>403-421-424-426. OR... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ670>672. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...KA LONG TERM....KA AVIATION.....SH  908 FXUS65 KBOU 221017 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 417 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat eases, along with an increase in shower and storm coverage this weekend. - Highest coverage of showers and storms expected today, along with a few severe storms on the plains this afternoon and evening and then again Sunday. - Gradual drying next week, but continued storm chances through at least Wednesday or Thursday. Slight cooling but temperatures still above normal. && .DISCUSSION /Through Friday/... Issued at 249 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A slight cooldown is expected today after Friday's record breaking heat. While temperatures are still expected to remain above normal, we should only see highs range from the mid 80s to the low 90s across the lower elevations before afternoon showers and storms bring some heat relief. Not much has changed in today's forecast, as we still expect today to bring this week's best chance for wetting rains as PWATs are expected to be around 150% of normal. Instability will increase today, with high-res models showing a wide range of values (600-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE). Despite these models having inconsistent MLCAPE values, they are in fairly good agreement that the best environment for severe storms will be along a line from the Cheyenne Ridge southeastward across the plains, just east of DIA. As storms are expected to remain high-based as they move off the higher terrain, they will be capable of producing gusty outflows, with a few strong to severe gusts expected throughout the afternoon and evening as storms move across the plains. With the above normal PWATs in place, we could have a few localized heavier rains too. Additionally, mid-level lapse rates will be sufficiently steep (8-9 C/km) to support an isolated hail threat. 0-6 km shear will be marginal (~30 kts), but enough to support potential for storm organization. The upper-level ridge is still expected to flatten out on Sunday and Monday as a shortwave tracks east out of the Pacific Northwest. While moisture isn't expected to be as robust as today, PWATs are still expected to be around 120% to 130% of normal each afternoon that will support afternoon showers and storms, with a few strong to severe storms possible each afternoon, and above normal temperatures persisting before a chance at sub 90 degree highs returns Tuesday and Wednesday. The latest ensembles keep above normal PWATs in place through the week though a gradual drying is still expected. This will keep at least isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms possible through the week. The upper-level ridge is then expected to rebuild, bringing temperatures right back into the 90s across the plains to end the work week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday/... Issued at 1221 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 An outflow from severe storms over northeastern Colorado has pushed across KDEN/KBJC turning winds to the north. The boundary as slowed down as it passed over KDEN airfield that might keep it from reaching KAPA, but for now it has at least slowed it down from what is in the current TAF. With the upslope winds, weak showers are starting to develop around the TAF sites. Have introduced a PROB30 at KDEN/KAPA until 8Z to account for any gusty winds that may be produced if these can hold together before winds can make their way back to drainage in the next few hours. Expect some sort of southeast to south transition over the next few hours at KDEN while drainage tries to reestablish. Drainage winds are expected to turn around the clock and land to the northeast across all TAF sites by early this afternoon (17-18Z). Greater storm coverage is expected this afternoon compared to yesterday, with storms expected to move off thehigher elevations between 20-22Z and continue through late tonight (5-6Z). Gusty winds are expected with passing storms, with gusts between 35-45 kts possible, but can't rule out a severe storm passing over or near the TAF sites. Storms are expected to be high-based, with guidance showing CIG staying above 9,000 feet AGL. Like today, can't rule out an outflow or two making their way across the TAF sites after storms have diminished that could disrupt or delay drainage winds from taking hold. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...9 AVIATION...9  011 FXUS65 KRIW 221021 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 421 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increased moisture brings an increased chance of showers and storms across the area today. Some storms could have heavy rain, strong wind or hail. - The chance of showers and storms lingers through much of the week, although today looks the most active. - Temperatures will gradually decrease to near normal levels for much of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The monsoon has once again arrived across the area, I believe this is the third or fourth appearance so far. So far, it has behaved. We do have some light showers across mainly the western half of the area but nothing heavy so far. The main concern in the forecast will be the potential for heavy rain and possible strong thunderstorms today. Right now, in this meteorologists opinion, potential is mixed for if we will see widespread of either. In regards to heavy rain, the main factor will be the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. Dew points have been slow to rise so far, but they should this afternoon, rising into the 50s in portions of the Big Horn Basin as well as Johnson and Natrona Counties. Precipitable water values should also be rather high. The GFS, for example, has precipitable water values about 175 to 200 percent of normal. This had been overdone by around 15 to 20 percent the past few events though. Even with this, precipitable water values over 150 percent of normal look fairly likely. There will also be some forcing in the form of a shortwave moving in from the west. This should enhance chances for all areas, so everyone will have a chance. The best chance still looks to be in northwestern Wyoming, generally a 1 in 2 chance, and there is decent model agreement in this. As for severe thunderstorms, there looks to be a decent amount of instability. This is especially so in the favored portions of our area, mainly East of the Bighorn Range in Johnson and Natrona Counties. Lifted indices fall as low as minus 4 to minus 5 with close to 1500 J/Kg of surface CAPE here. There is also a decent amount of directional shear in this area. This, plus the ample moisture, may increase the hail threat in this area. We do have a marginal risk of severe weather in portions of Johnson and Natrona Counties, and this could be expanded westward with the 13Z update. All areas could have a thunderstorm but with less instability and shear most storms would be sub severe. However, there are some factors against possible hazards. In regards to flooding and thunderstorms, it is cloud cover. Much of the area, especially western Wyoming, is covered by clouds as I write this around midnight. If it stays mostly cloudy for much of the day, this could limit instability somewhat and decrease the chance of stronger thunderstorms. There will likely be some areas that will be sunnier though, especially further east. And there is one more mitigating factor for heavy rain and possible flooding. With the shortwave moving through, there will be some steering flow today. It won't be strong, but most areas will have 15 to 25 knots at 500 millibars which should keep storms moving somewhat. We continue to have a marginal risk of excessive rainfall, and persistent storms could still cause flooding. But it may decrease the chance somewhat. The shortwave should clear the area by midnight, but some showers will likely linger through the night. As for temperatures, more cloud cover should lower them around 5 to 8 degrees, but it will still be above normal for almost all areas. The forecast from Sunday through much of next week looks fairly similar. We will remain on the edge of the ridge. Some monsoonal moisture will stick around, with precipitable water values remaining above average through much of the period. However, they do look lower than today, so the chance of convection should be somewhat lower. Most guidance favors western Wyoming at this time. However, given the poor performance of the models in regards to timing and placement of the showers and storms, confidence in the details remains low. Temperatures will also cool off somewhat, back down to near to just slightly above normal levels for late August. There continue to be some indications of drier air moving in for the end of next week or next weekend, possibly shutting off the monsoon and bring a period of warm, but not really hot weather for the end of August. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 414 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Rain showers will spread into western Wyoming during the morning hours, with PROB30 groups at all terminals West of the Continental Divide (KJAC, KPNA, KBPI AND KRKS). These showers then spread East of the Divide after 13 to 14Z and move eastward. Additional showers are possible through the day with thunderstorms possible mainly after 19Z although exact timing of the periods of showers and thunderstorms is uncertain. Most storms should end after 04Z tonight although some showers will linger through at least 08Z tonight and some even until sunrise on Sunday. The main threat from most storms would be heavy rain that could bring brief MVFR conditions with the heavier periods of rain and wind gusts over 35 knots. Stronger storms are possible in Johnson and Natrona Counties, including KCPR where storms may become strong to severe. Locally stronger storms are also possible in northwestern Wyoming, mainly in vicinity of KJAC. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Hattings  126 FXUS65 KFGZ 221023 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 323 AM MST Sat Aug 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Look for daily chances for showers and thunderstorms to continue through early next week, primarily across the higher terrain. Drier and warmer conditions are then expected to develop as a strong high pressure system builds over Arizona. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft centered over northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado early Saturday morning will slowly drift southward through Tuesday then westward toward the end of next week becoming centered over the southern portions of Arizona/New Mexico border. The net result will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms across northern Arizona through Monday or Tuesday then diminished chances as the position of the high will allow for a bit drier air and a more stable air mass to develop over northern Arizona. For Today...Monsoon moisture will remain in place. As a result, we're looking at another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with a bit more activity than seen on Friday. Southeast flow aloft will continue to favor shower and thunderstorm development midday over the Grand Canyon, Mogollon Rim, White mountains and Chuska Mountains with activity then tending to move north and east from that point. However, deep moisture still resides to the south of the Mogollon Rim and models are showing and increase activity even for Yavapai and Gila Counties. Otherwise, light winds and hot. From Sunday into Tuesday...Monsoon moisture remains in place with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. The flow aloft will remain southerly with the bulk of activity expected from the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains northward. Otherwise, with the high remaining over the southwest United States, light winds will continue along with above normal temperatures. Looking from Wednesday onward...Models appear to be trending toward high pressure aloft becoming centered over southeast Arizona/southwest New Mexico. This solution would bring in a more southwest to west flow aloft which would deliver a drier air mass as well as a capping layer aloft under the influence of weak subsidence. In addition, daytime temperatures will be on the increase, likely eventually rising to the upper 80 to lower 90s in the mountains to 105 to 110 degrees at elevations below 4000 feet. Yeah a bummer, but its still summer after all. && .AVIATION...Saturday 22/12Z through Sunday 23/12Z...Mainly VFR conditions. Look for another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms after 18Z, continuing into early evening. Localized/brief MVFR conditions and gusty/erratic winds up to 40 kts in stronger storms. Otherwise, daytime winds southwest to northwest at 5-15 kts, light and variable overnight. OUTLOOK...Sunday 23/12Z through Tuesday 25/12Z...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon, highest coverage over the higher terrain. Brief/localized MVFR conditions and wind gusts to 40 kts in stronger storms. Otherwise, daytime winds southwest to west at 5-15 kts, light and variable or terrain driven overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Look for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening across northern Arizona with main focus from the White Mountains and Mogollon Rim northward. Stronger storms will produce gusty and erratic winds and localized heavy rainfall. Away from storms, winds look to be southwest to northwest 5-15 mph each day, becoming variable in the evening and overnight. Monday through Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue on Monday, becoming more isolated on Tuesday and Wednesday. Stronger storms will bring gusty and erratic winds and brief downpours. Otherwise, warming daytime temperatures with southwest to west winds at 5-15 mph each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  162 FXUS62 KRAH 221024 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 625 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Drier, cooler, less humidity Sunday into Tuesday night. * Shower and storm chances return with higher humidity late next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 208 AM Saturday... 1) Lingering showers and storms are possible again today, with a possible low-end severe risk over the northwest Piedmont. 2) Drier weather, along with lower relative humidities and cooler temperatures, is expected Sunday into mid-week. PM shower and storm chances return mid to late next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 208 AM Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Lingering showers and storms are possible again today, with a possible low-end severe risk over the northwest Piedmont. Central NC continues to be in that moist and unstable pattern today. An upper-level trough will remain to our west through tonight as a shortwave dives southeastward into the Lower Great Lakes. Tied to that shortwave trough will be a surface cold front slated to move through portions of central NC by early Sunday morning. A surface front persists across our southern and eastern zones, and will be a continued focus for off and on isolated, to at times scattered, showers and storms this morning and afternoon to the early evening hours. However, confidence on overall coverage is not particularly high. Across the west, the approaching shortwave this evening, ahead of the cold front, will favor some isolated/scattered storm activity across the northwest Piedmont, perhaps holding together before dissipating east of the Triangle late tonight. Several HREF members indicate this potential in the 7pm to 1am time frame, though coverage may be quite isolated with timing being near sunset and slightly drier air working in from the west. If any storms can materialize, there is adequate deep shear of 30-35 kt with 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk of severe storms, just west of the Triad. We would not be surprised if that risk area is expanded eastward. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. KEY MESSAGE 2... Drier weather, along with lower relative humidities and cooler temperatures, is expected Sunday into mid- week. PM shower and storm chances return mid to late next week. A mid/upper level trough will be positioned over the eastern United States Sunday into mid-week. This will mean cooler and drier weather for our region as surface high pressure builds from the Midwest Sunday to the mid-Atlantic states by Wednesday. Cooler and drier air will advect into the region Sunday and Sunday night with highs in the mid to upper 80s Sunday, and lows Sunday night in the 60s. Monday into Wednesday will feature mostly sunny skies with dew points dipping into the 50s both Monday and Tuesday. Some return moisture will raise the dew points back into mostly 60s by Wednesday. Daytime highs should top out in the 83-88 range each day with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s (north-central to SE). A chance of mainly PM showers/storms will return as early as Wednesday (20-30 percent), and more likely Thursday (40-60 percent chance). Highs will return to the upper 80s to lower 90s by late week. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 625 AM Saturday... Areas of low stratus has been patchy across the terminals thus far this early morning, varying from VFR to LIFR/IFR. Still expecting a period of LIFR conditions until 14z given several sites across central NC at or below 400 ft. However, confidence in low visibilities has decreased. Latest radar trends indicate some isolated showers tracking east, which may briefly impact RDU/FAY/RWI this morning. However, confidence was too low on showers actually reaching any one terminal. A better chance of showers or a storm will exist this afternoon across the east (RDU/FAY/RWI) and this evening across the west (GSO/INT). The evening storm threat at GSO/INT is tied to a cold front, which could favor sub-VFR conditions. Any storm chances should diminish area-wide by 06z. There could be some sub-VFR stratus or fog early Sun, most favored at FAY/RWI. We opted to not include this in the latest TAF due to low confidence. Outlook: VFR conditions are mainly expected Sunday through Tuesday before storm chances return by the middle of the upcoming week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kren/Badgett AVIATION...Kren  181 FXUS62 KTAE 221025 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 625 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 621 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again for this afternoon and evening, mainly across Florida and far southern Georgia. The strongest storms are expected to produce wind gusts of 40-60 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain. - A typical summertime pattern is expected for next week with highs in the mid 90s and isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening. A gradual increase in rain chances is expected later in the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 For today, an upper level shortwave will bisect our area from northeast to southwest. Therefore, rain chances will be highest for areas from Panama City to Tifton and southward. While soundings aren't quite as impressive today compared to yesterday, some gusty winds could still occur with the strongest storms. Drier air will sneak into our area as well, which should keep us below Heat Advisory levels. It will still be hot with highs in the lower 90s and heat index values of 100-107. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Sunday will be the driest day with precipitable water values dropping to the 1.2-1.5 inch range. Thus, little coverage of showers and storms is expected for Sunday. What little activity occurs will likely be near the sea breeze. Highs will still be quite warm in the mid to upper 90s, but the lower dewpoints will keep most heat indices below the heat advisory of 108F, with the possible exception of along the coast. For Monday, we'll have to watch if a shortwave rounds the ridge to our west and enters our area during the afternoon, which may help spark better coverage of showers and storms. Highs will still be in the mid 90s. Through much of the remaining part of the upcoming week, the ridge will remain off to our west, and we'll remain in northwesterly flow aloft. So, we'll continue to monitor for any ridge-riding disturbances, but our rain chances will gradually increase with a return to a summer pattern. Highs remain in the low to mid 90s with heat index values of 102-108. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions prevail at most TAF sites, outside of KVLD which has reported 5SM most of the night, this morning. Model guidance has trended a bit wetter in and around KTLH and KVLD and gave enough confidence to include TEMPO groups for those two sites later this afternoon. Elsewhere, drier air filtering in from the north should keep a lid on rain chances. That said, have elected to keep PROB30 groups in for KECP, KDHN, and KABY to have a little wiggle room in case showers/storms develop more north and west than currently forecast. Drier air filters in from the north tonight and may lead to some fog and/or stratus deck at most TAF sites early Sunday morning. Confidence wasn't high enough to go prevailing MVFR or IFR this far out, but it's something we'll monitor over the next 18 to 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Scattered storms are expected for today with gusty winds and brief waterspouts are possible in the stronger storms. Otherwise, mainly gentle to occasionally moderate southwesterly breezes will continue over the next several days with seas around 1-2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Generally light west to southwest transport winds will continue through today, then become more variable on Monday. Dispersions will remain good overall each afternoon. Scattered showers and stormsare expected again this afternoon, but decreasing coverage is anticipated for Sunday. Gusty, erratic winds and dangerous lightning strikes will be possible. Drier air will move in on Sunday, but RH values will stay above critical levels. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Locally heavy downpours will be possible with the storms this afternoon with isolated areas receiving a few inches of rainfall in a short period of time. This would lead to some nuisance to isolated flash flood concerns, particularly in low-lying or poor drainage areas. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 93 74 97 74 / 60 40 10 10 Panama City 90 78 93 78 / 40 10 10 10 Dothan 94 73 97 72 / 20 10 10 10 Albany 94 73 97 72 / 50 20 10 10 Valdosta 94 72 97 72 / 70 20 10 10 Cross City 91 74 93 74 / 30 30 40 10 Apalachicola 89 78 92 79 / 40 20 30 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM....DVD AVIATION...Reese MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...DVD  151 FXUS63 KDDC 221024 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 524 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued hot temperatures this weekend - A storm complex is possible across NW/N Kansas late tonight, however, the rest of the FA should remain dry - Better thunderstorm chances next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1111 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Today should be generally hot and dry. Highs should be mainly in the 90s, although a few 100s will be possible along the Oklahoma border. Some of the CAMs should storms developing across the High Plains late tonight and moving across NW/N Kansas during the overnight hours to early morning hours. The highest pops will be confined to just the northern zones to account for this possibility. Otherwise, the rest of the FA will likely remain dry and storm-free. Lows will be mainly in the 60s tonight, with a few 70s near Medicine Lodge. Much of the same weather will continue Sunday with hot highs, warm lows, and perhaps an isolated storm or two. The mid-level ridge will start to sink southward across New Mexico by middle portion of next week. This will allow storms to develop across the High Plains and propagate SE towards western Kansas though several days of next week. Therefore, there is some good news that we could see more storm opportunities more needed rainfall next week. Highs will remain seasonably warm with values peaking in the 90s. Lows will be in the mix of 60s to 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 523 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions will prevail with decreasing mid to high level clouds this morning becoming mostly clear by this afternoon. Winds will generally be from the northeast this morning, shifting to an easterly direction by this afternoon. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sugden AVIATION...Hovorka_42  263 FXUS61 KBGM 221028 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 628 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes made to the forecast at this time. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A broad upper level low moving southeastward into the area tonight into Sunday is expected to lead to unsettled weather into early next week. 2) High pressure builds in for a brief lull in wet weather Wednesday, then additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to return Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A broad upper trough will be setting up across the eastern U.S. this weekend with an upper low dropping southeastward out of Canada and becoming a closed low over the Great Lakes on Sunday. A surface low is expected to develop over the eastern Great Lakes region as well Saturday night into Sunday. These features are expected to be the main drivers of our weather into early next week. There is also a surface low developing near the mid- Atlantic coast today that will be sliding northeastward but most of the moisture from this is expected to pass by off to our south and east. Clouds will increase from south to north and there can be some isolated showers this afternoon and evening, but shower chances will increase later tonight into Sunday as an embedded upper shortwave rotates into the area and the upper trough becomes more neutral to slightly negatively tilted as it shifts east. Chances for thunder look to be pretty low this afternoon and evening with modest instability (500 to locally 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE), but little in the way of MLCAPE and bulk shear. Mid- level lapse rates are poor as well, so thunder was reduced to just a slight chance during this time. The surface low over the eastern Great Lakes is expected to lift north-northeast, passing just north and west of the CWA Sunday. As it shifts north toward the Ontario/Quebec border, it will drag a surface cold front across the region Sunday (timing of the frontal boundary is a bit uncertain). The chance for thunder is a little better on Sunday as 0-6km shear noticeably increases to 35-50 knots across the CWA and mid-level lapse rates are a bit higher around 6- 6.5 C/km as well. MUCAPE still looks to average 500-1000 J/kg, but the NAM is a little more bullish east of I-81. In the wake of the frontal passage, model guidance suggests there can be a brief break in shower activity as a dry slot develops Sunday evening. By Monday, the 500mb closed low moves overhead. This combined with with cooler air aloft moving over the Great Lakes with 850mb temps falling to +6C to +10C and a west to northwest flow in place, additional showers are expected to develop. As the upper low lifts NE Tuesday, there could be a few lingering showers downwind of Lake Ontario near and north of the NYS Thruway before drier conditions return. Near to slightly below average temperatures are expected this weekend before turning noticeably cooler Monday with the upper low overhead with highs in the 60s and low 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure briefly builds in Tuesday night into Wednesday with dry conditions. Then Thursday into Friday, model guidance suggests a similar pattern to this weekend setting back up with a potential low moving up from the south and another upper trough pushing in from the west that would bring the chance for additional showers and thunderstorms. As of now these features appear to be more progressive and look to move out of the region by next weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Valley fog will continue to impact ELM this morning, bringing LIFR restrictions through 13-14z, before quickly scattering out and improving back to VFR by around 1430Z. AVP has some sct to bkn MVFR stratus clouds in the vicinity, but these will begin to dissipate by mid morning. The other TAF sites are expected to remain VFR through the day today. There is a slight chance for a stray shower or t'storm INVOF AVP or BGM by late afternoon or early evening, but confidence and coverage was too low to include in the TAF a this time. Otherwise, lowering cloud bases and CIGs move in from the south later this evening, with MVFR conditions forecast to reach AVP after 23/02z, ELM 23/03z and BGM 23/04z. The MVFR and even IFR CIGs are forecast to continue spreading north over much of the forecast area late tonight and early Sunday morning. There will also be increasing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms heading into tonight and Sunday morning as a frontal boundary approaches. These could bring occasional IFR visibility restrictions and gusty/erratic wind gusts at times. Expected light east-southeast winds early this morning, less than 5 kts. The winds turn south-southeast and increase between 6-15 kts late morning into this afternoon and evening. Outlook... Sunday...Showers and potential thunderstorms with associated restrictions. Monday...Scattered showers at the Central NY terminals with associated restrictions possible. Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DK AVIATION...MJM  275 FXUS62 KFFC 221029 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 629 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New 12Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy dense fog will reduce visibility to less than 1 mile across parts of North Georgia this morning. - A surface boundary will spark additional showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across portions of south-central Georgia. - Drier conditions on Sunday will be followed by a return to low daily rain chances for most from Tuesday onward. - Seasonal, less oppressive heat returns to North Georgia today and areawide by Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Currently: Much quieter tonight compared to this time yesterday. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms linger in the vicinity of Columbus and south of Macon but these are on the downward trend. A surface front bisects the forecast area with drier air starting to filter in behind it as noted by latest WV imagery. Temperatures are still warm thanks to high cirrus with readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Low clouds and patchy fog are likely this morning with improvements expected at or shortly after sunrise. Precipitation Trends: The surface front will continue to push through the forecast area today as a large upper troughing digs eastward towards the Atlantic Coast. Showers and thunderstorms will largely be focused along and south of the frontal boundary for this afternoon -- namely along and south of a line from Columbus to Sandersville. Similar to previous days, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall will accompany any storm. A secondary front will push through tonight and a stray shower or thunderstorm could accompany this feature. However, the brunt of the activity is likely to remain to our north. Dry conditions areawide are expected for Sunday afternoon and evening. Heat Trends: Drier air and lower dewpoints behind the front will lend to less oppressive heat for North Georgia today and areawide on Sunday. Daytime temperatures will still largely remain in the 90s but dewpoints in the 60s will make being outside a little less miserable this weekend. Forecast highs today and Sunday will rise into the low to mid 90s with temperatures in the 80s for the higher elevations. Overnight temperatures are forecast to fall into the 60s to low 70s each night/early morning. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The long term begins with an upper-level longwave trough set up over our region that will remain in place and result in drier conditions through the first half of next week. As drier conditions filter into the CWA, it will set up a nice run of drier days, with slightly cooler mornings, providing us with favorable conditions for outdoor activities. Additionally, precipitation chances will be limited through at least Tuesday, with dry mid to upper level conditions spreading across the region in combination with lower precipitable water values between 0.5-1 inch. By mid-week, the axis of the trough lifts out of the CWA toward the northeast, and the pattern will become more zonal, allowing for an influx of moisture from the Gulf, increasing our precipitation chances and humidity by mid-week. This will result in a return to the typical August diurnal thunderstorm pattern we are accustomed to as we move into the latter half of next week. Daytime temperatures will likely climb back into the low to mid-90s, with possible triple- digit heat indices for the second half of the workweek. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 LIFR and IFR stratus to persist through 14z before improvement to VFR. Mainly impacting AHN but could make it as far west as PDK. W to NW wind for the northern sites and SW to W at the southern sites. Once the front clears CSG/MCN winds will veer NW. Speeds 5- 8kts. Iso to Sct tsra this afternoon mainly south of MCN and CSG. Chances too low to mention in TAF at this time. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... High confidence on all elements. 07 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 92 69 92 65 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 92 72 91 68 / 0 0 0 10 Blairsville 85 62 83 58 / 0 10 0 0 Cartersville 93 68 91 64 / 0 10 0 10 Columbus 95 72 95 70 / 10 0 0 10 Gainesville 91 69 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 93 71 94 68 / 20 0 10 0 Rome 93 68 91 64 / 0 10 0 10 Peachtree City 92 69 92 66 / 0 0 0 10 Vidalia 93 73 96 71 / 40 10 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....82 AVIATION...07  481 FXUS63 KAPX 221034 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 634 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -- Rain/storms today. -- Breezy, cool, and showery Sunday with high swim risks. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Ridge axis stretches from British Columbia down to the Four Corners region, where the 598/599dm upper level heat dome remains in place...with an upper low just off the West Coast poised to try to eject northward. Meanwhile, downstream, NW flow overtaking the Central US, with sharp trough axis focused from KY northward through MI into central Ontario...and another shortwave trough dropping out of Manitoba as of 3z. Shortwave ridge axis over eastern Canada as upper troughing exits the Canadian coast. Bulk of the moisture across the continent is focused along the SE US coast along a boundary stretching loosely down the Atlantic coast and through the Gulf Coast states...and secondly, across the Upper Great Lakes up into Hudson Bay near/beneath the incoming troughing. Anticyclonic flow in the low/mid-levels over central Canada helping to reinforce cold northwesterly flow across Manitoba and western Ontario, where 850mb temps are in the 4-8C range attm...and a surface cold front stretching from MN to Hudson Bay reflects this cold advection idea. A cold front does stretch from the central UP down into the Mid MS Valley and Central Plains, though for our neck of the woods, the thermal change is less impressive than the wind shift attm, with winds distinctly turning around to the NW behind it (as opposed to the southerly surface flow ahead of it). Expect this latter feature will be exiting NE MI this morning as that energy digs nearly straight south from northwestern Ontario. This should keep the threat for showers and perhaps storms going through the day as multiple waves dig through the region. Strengthening pressure gradient between departing pressure falls and approaching surface high will result in strengthening northwest winds later today into tonight...and hanging on into Sunday as an somewhat unseasonable wad of PV drops in and results in a strengthening of aforementioned pressure falls to our E/NE. Falling temps aloft should generate overlake instability and lake effect rain showers to wrap up the weekend. Not impossible this idea hangs on into the start of the workweek, but attm, appears ridging should build eastward into the Upper Midwest later Monday...ahead of the next feature plowing its way across southern Canada...which should reach us by midweek, though its warm advective influences may reach us a tad sooner. It is still somewhat unclear attm how the end of next week will evolve, though signals the last few nights suggest the flow may try to flatten out across the northern CONUS as bits of energy continue to track across Canada. FORECAST DETAILS... Rain/storm chances today through Sunday (Monday?)... Think there is a reasonable shot at a PV max lifting through around midday/afternoon today, and another, more potent bit of PV digging in from the northwest toward late afternoon/evening...perhaps not all that dissimilar to yesterday's setup, but translated eastward a bit...though certainly possible there will be other, smaller-scale perturbations to contend with. We will continue to hang onto several hundred to around 1000 joules of elevated instability this morning, and think this could have a shot at becoming surface based with time today, especially toward NE Lower which should remain in the warm sector longest...though if we are able to warm enough to mix out any weak nocturnal inversion this morning, we could become surface based right away with low-LCLs, and do wonder (with my very worst-case- scenario brain) ifa rogue spin-up is possible?...though shear generally remains weak till perhaps the afternoon (and even at that, is likely marginal, around 20-30kts at best)...though I am perhaps a bit aggressively biased toward the idea of lifting/negatively tilted shortwaves tending to be spicy. Some upscale growth is possible with shear vectors largely parallel to the boundary, and cooling/weak stability aloft suggests some marginal hail could be possible...but some localized heavy rains could also be a concern, especially if storms move slowly or hang out in an area for an extended time. 925mb temps falling below 14C as early as 3z tonight suggest we will begin to transition to more of a lake effect regime, and this should remain firmly in place Sunday as temps fall even further -- 850mb temps could fall below 4C, which would be sufficient to generate overlake instability over even the colder waters of central Lake Superior. Prevailing flow should generally be NW to NNW but may fluctuate back and forth a bit with the encroaching perturbations, with more northerly flow likely by later Sunday into Sunday night. Deepest moisture should remain over NE Lower MI Sunday, and this is where best coverage should be...though will expect most of the usual lake effect areas to see a little activity off and on this weekend. Fly in the ointment for the lake effect idea is that inversion heights should take a tumble later Sunday into early Monday, which could limit the extent of actual shower activity into the start of the work week. Would not be surprised to see some kind of drizzle hang on where upsloping is maximized...though attm, some (typically drier) guidance soundings hint at the idea of aggressive drying on Monday, which could help clear things out quicker. With potential for steep (15+C) delta-Ts Sunday, and 850mb winds most likely remaining at or below 30kts (at least till perhaps late), think we could have a shot at seeing some waterspouts on the northern Great Lakes, though not a sure bet. Winds this weekend...Pressure gradient will begin to strengthen this afternoon...and will only further expand/strengthen through the night into Sunday as that next wad of PV drops in, kicking cyclogenesis into high gear toward Georgian Bay/western Quebec. This should put the strongest synoptic winds generally from the EUP down into northeast Lower MI...with potential for sustained winds 10- 20kts through Sunday night. The low-level jet should strengthen as well, from 20-25kts even as early as this afternoon, upwards of 30+kts overnight. Think there could be some isolated gale-force gusts on the nearshores, but do not have much confidence in this idea attm, given that winds aloft aren't necessarily supportive. As mentioned above, prevailing winds should flit back and forth between NW and NNW with time as various perturbations pass through...but this will lead to building waves and dangerous swim conditions especially along our west/northwest facing beaches of northwest Lower, and across north(ish) facing shores of northeast Lower. While we do not specifically issue a beach forecast for Whitefish Bay, would anticipate much of that north-facing coastline from Bay Mills/Point Iroquois toward the mouth of the Tahquamenon River will also see high wave action and dangerous swimming conditions (not to mention high waves out on the Bay itself). ...Not that the cool, showery, blustery weather is overly inviting for beachgoing in the first place. Cool temps Sunday...Seasonably cool air mass supports highs in the 60s for most, though possibly closer to 70 near Saginaw Bay, particularly where downsloping and some clearing could come into play. Given anticipated showers/cloud cover (though it could end up less bullish than current expectations), have suspicions some of the interior areas could struggle to get out of the lower 60s, and would not be surprised if parts of the EUP stayed in the upper 50s. Combined with showers and breezy winds... it will definitely feel more like fall than late August. Temps should begin to warm Monday, about 5-10 degrees compared to Sunday, and if more aggressive drying occurs, perhaps bounce back up much closer to normal than current expectations...with potential for lows in the 40s again Monday night, especially if high pressure settles in overhead, though do have to wonder if we will end up with fog after the expected showers this weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 634 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Areas of lower cigs out there this morning, most widespread in northern lower MI (mainly MVFR, in spots IFR). These cigs will tend to gradually improve thru early afternoon. These are also some showers out there, especially north of TVC. The best chance for heavier SHRA and TSRA will be this afternoon/early evening at APN. Precip coverage will decrease somewhat tonight. Winds become nw and somewhat breezy this afternoon. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Monday for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Monday for LHZ346. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT Monday for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Monday for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342-344. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to midnight EDT Sunday night for LMZ345-346. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322. && $$ DISCUSSION...FEF AVIATION...JZ  550 FXUS62 KILM 221036 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 636 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... An offshore mesolow could lead to a risk of flash flooding, particularly for coastal SE NC, this morning into midday. Updated 12Z TAF discussion below. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Heavy thunderstorms capable of isolated flash flooding remain possible today, mainly near the coast. 2) Near-normal temperatures expected in the long-term with low rain chances for Sunday/Monday increasing midweek. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Heavy thunderstorms capable of isolated flash flooding remain possible today, mainly near the coast. A stalled front offshore will lift back towards the coast early this morning as a surface mesolow and attendant mid-level vort max tracks northeastward along it. This mesolow is expected to pass near Cape Fear in the mid-late morning hours, bringing a renewed threat for heavy thunderstorms and flash flooding, especially over the Wilmington metro area. Behind this mesolow, heating of a moist airmass and additional impulses moving around the broader trough in the jet stream should aid in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, particularly along the sea breeze. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible near the immediate coast and offshore tonight as impulses aloft interact with instability over the very warm ocean. However, if sufficient outflow pushes offshore this afternoon, the threat along the coast will be lowered. KEY MESSAGE 2...Near-normal temperatures expected in the long-term with low rain chances for Sunday/Monday increasing midweek. Another cold front is expected to be push in from the northwest Sunday afternoon, keeping a chance for isolated to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly along the coast. A period of mostly dry weather appears likely on Monday with the front stalling offshore. However, as the flow aloft becomes westerly to northwesterly around midweek and the stalled front lingering over or near the area, additional impulses and waves of low pressure are poised to bring periods of showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday onward, with the best chances for more widespread rain currently focused on Thursday into Friday. Of course, given this is multiple days away, the chances for rain will likely fluctuate in the coming days as smaller-scale details are worked out. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CIGs should be an issue for inland terminals during the first several hours of the TAF period, clearing by 16-18Z. Meanwhile, coastal terminals may see an increase in showers/storms this morning, mainly KILM. Have added TEMPOs for diminished conditions in heavy rainfall. ~18Z we'll return to typical scattered showers/storms with the sea breeze so have PROB30s for those. At the moment haven't included any restrictions for past 00Z, but inland could see fog/stratus again Saturday night. Extended Forecast... Mostly VFR expected. Low risk for transient restrictions from showers/storms Sun/Mon with a bit better risk Tue/Wed, especially near the coast. && .MARINE... Today through Wednesday... Expect generally south to southwest winds to prevail through the period as an approaching cold front stalls near the coast. No headlines are expected as winds peak around 15-20 kts over Saturday night and wave heights stay around 3 ft or less within 20 nmi and up to 4 ft in the 20-60 nmi zones, highest this weekend. The biggest marine impact will likely be from scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the waters through the weekend as a front stalls near the coast. There will likely be several rounds of storms, accompanied by reduced visibility and possible gusty winds. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM KEY MESSAGES...ABW DISCUSSION...ABW AVIATION...LEW MARINE...ABW  613 FXUS61 KILN 221038 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 638 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop today ahead of a cold front moving through the region. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Mid level energy moving through the base of an upper level trough over the Great Lakes region will help push a cold front east across our area today. Some spotty shower activity will be possible through mid morning, but more widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front as we destabilize late this morning and into this afternoon. The models have trended a bit faster with the front, so the better chances of pcpn this afternoon looks to be across our eastern areas. Deep layer shear will not be all that impressive initially, but it will tick up a bit into the 20-30 knot range through mid to late afternoon. This could lead to a few strong to severe storms -- with the best chance for this across mainly our eastern areas where the instability and deep layer shear will be somewhat better. Damaging winds would be the main threat along with possibly some hail as some cooler air moves in aloft. PWs will mainly be in the 1.25 to 1.5 inch range so it will be tough to rule out some locally heavy downpours. The storms should be fairly progressive though and this should help limit any additional flooding concerns. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Scattered showers and thunderstorms moving across eastern Indiana are forecast to dissipate through mid morning, but they may still affect the western TAF sites early in the TAF period. Otherwise, expect additional scattered shower and thunderstorm development later this morning and into this afternoon as a cold front moves east across the region. Pcpn will taper off from the west late this afternoon into early evening as some drier air moves in behind the front. Southwest to west winds to around 10 knots or so will become more northwesterly later this afternoon behind the front. Some wind gusts to around 20 knots will also be possible for a few hours later this afternoon on the backside of the front. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGL AVIATION...JGL  657 FXUS63 KFSD 221040 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 540 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slightly cooler weather for the weekend. Today will remain dry with moderate rain chances (40-70%) returning to portions of the area Sunday through Sunday night. Rainfall amounts could exceed a tenth to a quarter of an inch. - Additional chances for rain, and potentially strong to severe thunderstorms (5-15%), are possible through next week, though details are uncertain. Continue to check the latest forecast for the most up to date information. && .UPDATE... Issued at 420 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A quiet night continues and thunderstorms have remained south of the forecast area as anticipated. Light winds and optimized radiational cooling have allowed for shallow/patchy fog development in portions of northwest Iowa. Will monitor trends, but at this time, do not expect any headlines will be needed. Today should be a pleasant day with abundant sunshine. While there may still be a slight haze from smoke aloft, models show lower concentrations working into the area through the day. Daytime rain/storm chances for Sunday remain focused mainly west of the James River Valley, with increased chances expanding east through the evening into Monday morning. SPC has maintained a Level 1 of 5 risk for severe storms in areas west of I-29 for this activity, with isolated damaging winds/large hail possible. However, model soundings would also indicate a potential for locally heavier rainfall with moistening profiles leading to precipitable water approaching 2 inches. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Quiet conditions persist this afternoon as temperatures have warmed to the 70s and 80s across the area. Quiet conditions are expected to continue for the rest of the day as the cold front has fully pushed through the area. This will keep storm chances south and west of the forecast area. Can't rule out the low possibility (less than 20%) of a shower or weak storm passing along and south of the Missouri River this afternoon, evening, and potentially into the overnight hours. Should this occur, the chance for a severe storm is low. Surface ridging will begin to slide into the forecast area tonight, resulting in light and variable winds with lows falling to the upper 50s to low 60s. Patchy fog is again on the table but with drier air in place, think that any fog that does develop will once again be tied to a few river valley's. Saturday begins the weekend on the quiet side as high pressure pushes through the Northern Plains. High temperatures will be a bit cooler in the upper 70s to low to mid 80s, with a continuation of light northerly winds. This will make for a wonderful Saturday, perfect for outdoor activities! Rain chances will increase late Saturday night through Sunday as a weak shortwave trough rounds the top of a building upper level ridge. This will result in increasing chances for rain across the area for the day on Sunday. Cloud cover with the associated chances for rain will keep high temperatures a bit cooler in the upper 70s to low 80s. While some showers are possible during the morning timeframe, the highest chances for rain will come Sunday evening and night as the main shortwave pushes through the area. The ensembles show a broad 40-70% chance for rainfall totals to exceed a tenth of an inch. Soundings show some elevated instability in place so thunderstorms are possible, though severe storms are not expected at this time due to weak shear profiles. With non-severe storms on the table, rainfall amounts could be locally higher depending on how storms track. An active pattern continues aloft for next week. Medium range guidance shows shortwave troughs continuing to push through the Northern Plains within the northwest flow regime. This will lead to chances for rain almost every day next week. However, the ensembles show a large variance in rainfall probabilities due to the differences in these upper level features. Latest machine learning (ML) guidance does show low probabilities (5-15%) for severe weather throughout the week. Details for severe weather remains uncertain so continue to check the forecast for the most up to date information. Aside from rain and storm chances, high temperatures look to remain in the upper 70s and 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 540 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Patchy early morning fog, mainly in northwest Iowa, will locally reduce visibility to IFR levels early in the period. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light north winds generally at or below 12kt through sunset. Winds become light and variable tonight with VFR conditions expected to dominate across the area. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JH DISCUSSION...Meyers AVIATION...JH  676 FXUS66 KSEW 221040 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 340 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Weak upper level low off the Central Oregon coast this morning will continue to weaken and move northeast today. The low will be off the Washington coast tonight and move inland as an upper level trough Sunday morning. Upper level ridge building in behind trough later Sunday will move east Monday. Western Washington on the backside of the ridge Tuesday. Another upper level trough arriving Wednesday or Thursday hanging around into Friday. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Satellite imagery shows low clouds have spread inland overnight and are moving east of Puget Sound at 3 am/10z. High clouds over the area above the stratus. Mild early morning with the cloud cover. Temperatures a couple of degrees either side of 60. Some small differences in the pattern will make a big difference in the forecast this morning. Upper level low off the Oregon coast further back to the southwest than the models are indicating. Shortwave spinning out of the low that would be moving over Western Washington if the low was where the models predicted is instead going by offshore leaving Western Washington with just a marine push in progress. Low slowly moving northeast later today. Instead of another shortwave spinning out of the low, convective activity over the area will be mostly the result of daytime heating helping to destabilize the air mass more than the current levels. This pushes the chances for convection into the late morning and afternoon hours and mostly over the northern portion of the area where the stratus will dissipate first. Still a chance for thunderstorms over the Central and Northern Cascades this afternoon. Cooler air mass will lessen the chances for thunderstorms over the Olympics. Will modify the Red Flag warning changing the start time in the Cascades portion to later this morning and drop the Olympics from the warning. Black Hills visible on the satellite imagery putting the tops of the marine layer below 2500 feet. Stratus retreating to the coast this afternoon but with the southerly flow aloft still middle and high level clouds over the area. Highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Low weakens to an upper level trough tonight. Trough moving inland near the Canadian border after midnight keeping at least a slight chance of showers over most of the area. Marine layer moving inland again approaching the Puget Sound by 12z Sunday. Lows in the 50s. Trough moving off to the east with an upper level ridge building into Western Washington Sunday afternoon. Shower activity confined to the North Cascades Sunday afternoon. Low level onshore flow with the marine layer returning to the coast in the afternoon. Highs once again in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Upper level ridge continuing to build Sunday night before moving east Monday. Onshore flow weakening bringing up the possibility that the marine layer does not get east of Puget Sound Monday morning. Even if it does it will be shallow and be gone by mid to late morning. More sunshine and warmer temperatures aloft adding up to a warmer day Monday. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Lows Monday morning in the 50s. Felton && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Extended models in good agreement this morning. Western Washington on the backside of the upper level ridge Monday night into Tuesday for one more warm day. Highs in the 70s to mid 80s. Upper level trough moving into the area Wednesday hanging around into Friday. Best chance for showers later Wednesday into Thursday. Much cooler with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s all three days. Through the 21st Seattle is only 0.5 degrees above normal for the month of August. This cooler end to the month will make it a close call if August ends up being above normal for temperatures. July was slightly below normal. The last time July and August had below normal temperatures in Seattle was 2011. Felton && .AVIATION... Southerly flow aloft becoming variable later this afternoon and tonight. Low level onshore flow into Sunday morning. IFR to LIFR ceilings lifting to MVFR by late morning. Ceilings continuing to improve over the interior with VFR ceilings this afternoon. MVFR ceilings continuing along the coast. Low end MVFR/IFR ceilings returning to the interior after 12z Sunday. KSEA...LIFR ceilings lifting to IFR mid morning, MVFR late morning and VFR by mid afternoon. IFR ceilings possible again Sunday morning after 12z. Southwest wind 6 to 12 knots easing to 4 to 8 knots tonight. Felton && .MARINE... A weak surface low will move into the coastal waters today. The low will dissipate tonight. High pressure will rebuild Sunday and remain over the area through Tuesday. A weak frontal system will move across the waters midweek. Winds picking up later this morning but staying 20 knots or less into the afternoon hours. Diurnal westerlies in the Strait of Juan de Fuca each evening for the next few days but at this point peak winds look to be around 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet for the next few days. Felton && .FIRE WEATHER... Red Flag warning will continue for the Northern and Central Cascades today for the possibility of lightning and gusty erratic outflow winds. Chances for thunderstorms have gone down this morning in the Olympics and the warning for there will be dropped. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue until the upper level trough moves east of the area Sunday. Upper level ridge building in later Sunday. Low level onshore flow pattern later Sunday through Tuesday will result in good relative humidity recoveries in the overnight hours easing fire weather concerns. Another upper level trough arriving in the middle of next week increasing the chances for convection. Felton && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening for West Slopes of the North Cascades Generally above 1500 Feet. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 5 PM PDT this afternoon for West Slopes of the Central Cascades Generally above 1500 Feet. PZ...None. && $$  758 FXUS61 KGYX 221042 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 642 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor update to the Aviation section for the 12Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Unsettled weather is expected through the weekend, but no widespread significant rainfall amounts anticipated. 2. Isolated rain chances Monday-Tuesday with a lingering upper- level low. Tranquil conditions by midweek, and loose signals for increasing humidity late week ahead of another system. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure south of southern New England will continue to slowly lift northeast and weaken today. As it does so showers will become more likely, especially over western Maine. Save for the Seacoast it is possible most of NH remains dry today. NBM handling the placement of best rain chance fairly I think, so no planned changes there. Despite the relatively high PoP, QPF will be on the low side. Most locations can expect less than a tenth of an inch, but an especially lucky section of town could see up to a quarter. Overnight we will need to watch and see how marine fog/stratus develops. The long range HRRR brings low visibility into coastal areas, especially for western Maine. The set up would be favorable as a warm front begins to lift into the region by early Sun. Along that warm front showers and maybe a few thunderstorms are forecast to form and lift north into the local area. This will bring a scattered potential for beneficial rainfall amounts. I do not anticipate this being a widespread soaker, but locations that do see precip could see a decent amount given that this will be more convective in nature. At this time I think significant rainfall amounts will be too isolated to forecast, so I will stick with the NBM QPF amounts, which more closely match ensemble means around a quarter of an inch. Showery weather may continue into the afternoon and overnight, as upper low begins to move overhead and keep conditions unstable. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Upper-level low moving out of the Great Lakes will continue to pivot into southern Quebec early week while fully occluding/cutting off from the mean flow. This brings cyclonic westerly flow to New England. Most likely outcome will be falling dew points with diurnal clouds/brief showers Mon-Tue, especially focused in the higher terrain and closer to the upper-level low in the north. Should see a nice dry punch on Monday especially across NH with very dry mid-levels and dew points mixing down to as low as the 40s! Uncertain how much of this pushes into Maine. Depending on how it all times out there may be an opportunity for some t-storms to develop in a juicy warm sector featuring rather steep lapse rates, MUCAPE values that may be pushing 1000 J/Kg, and close to 50 kts of deep-layer shear. It is possible the mid- level dry punch could be a resistant against robust convection, but will keep a mention of iso to sct showers/thunder in the forecast at this time, with the primary focus from the Kennebec Valley down into the Midcoast. On Wednesday the low loses its grip with brief height rises bringing tranquil conditions. By late week ensembles show another wave heading our way with possible surface cyclogenesis in the Michigan vicinity. With a developing trough to our west, likely will see southerly flow developing and returning humidity, but details are largely unknown at the 6+ day range. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through tonight...Mainly VFR conditions prevail today, but by mid to late afternoon CIGs will be lowering and MVFR conditions are anticipated. It is possible that some IFR CIGs work into coastal areas by evening along with some rain showers. Low CIGs and more widespread fog will likelybring IFR to LIFR conditions across much of the area tonight. Outlook: Sunday: Fog scatters out as rain showers lift across the area Sun. Some improvement to MVFR and VFR is possible by evening. Sunday night: Continued improvement in conditions, except local LIFR in valley fog. Monday: Local MVFR or lower possible in showers. Monday Night: VFR conditions expected. Tuesday: Local MVFR or lower possible in showers. Tuesday Night and Wednesday: VFR conditions expected. && .MARINE... Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA thresholds thru the extended period, despite weak low pressure moving thru the Gulf of Maine today. Will have to watch the overnight window, when areas of fog and low stratus may develop ahead of an approaching warm front. Those foggy conditions are expected to lift out on Sun. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barker/Legro AVIATION...Schroeter  827 FXUS63 KDTX 221044 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 644 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this morning become more widespread this afternoon. - There is a Marginal/Isolated risk of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. - Breezy and cooler conditions arrive Sunday with scattered showers through Sunday night. - A stray shower in the morning, otherwise dry Monday with slightly below normal temperatures. && .AVIATION... Height falls in advance of approaching trough are inducing deep thetae/moisture advection over Southeast Michigan this morning. Moistening of the column between 6.0 and 12.0 kft agl with cloud top cooling has resulted in shower and thunderstorm activity over portions of the area. IFR visibility restrictions will be possible for a short duration with any direct activity. A lull will be possible during the late morning hours before diurnal heating leads to shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon. Heart of the trough axis and associated strong potential vorticity anomaly will bring peak forcing for ascent between 18 and 22z this afternoon. Maintained a prevailing shower mention with a TEMPO for thunderstorms. Northwest gradient flow is expected to keep conditions mixed tonight with a potential for lower stratus development after 09z tonight. D21/DTW Convection...Warm and moisture advection brings a potential for thunderstorms this morning. Convective redevelopment is expected to occur again between 18-22z this afternoon. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High low for thunderstorms after 18z today. * Low for ceilings at or below 5000 ft this morning. Moderate in the afternoon. High tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 353 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 DISCUSSION... An active period of showers and thunderstorms continues in a couple of phases as Straits low pressure pulls a cold front through Lower Mi today. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms that are ongoing leading up to sunrise are within the low to mid level moisture axis ahead of the cold front. This is where model soundings indicate a deep layer of elevated instability, but with minimal CAPE density shown in both the soundings and implied by plan view depictions of 850 mb LI around -2 C and sub 7 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rate. This elevated convection merges with scattered hybrid surface based activity of similar intensity during the morning within and between a prefrontal surface trough and the inbound cold front. The early day activity adds some doubt about verification of model peak instability as the cold front sweeps through SE Mi this afternoon. However, HREF and REFS members all handle the ongoing activity reasonably well and still suggest a respectable recovery in time for the front to support a storm flare-up while overhead and before it exits into Ontario toward early evening. There is otherwise no big change in the CAPE/shear environment as HREF mean surface based CAPE holds below 1500 J/kg with bulk shear around 25 knots, good enough for multicell clusters capable of peak gusts approaching severe intensity as the primary hazard in the strongest storms. The Marginal Risk remains in place to highlight this potential in SE Mi with a Slight Risk now just east of the border until the front exits early this evening. Scattered showers trail the front, mainly during the evening, as the 500 mb trough digs toward the eastern Great Lakes, but also as moderate cold advection gains traction overnight. Increasing NW flow occurs across Lower Mi around the west flank of surface low pressure deepening on the Ontario/Quebec border as the 500 mb trough deepens and closes off early Sunday. Model agreement maintains the trend on solutions offering a larger mid level circulation closing off closer to Lower Mi during the day. There is also a well-defined reinforcing vorticity maximum holding consistency in model solutions as it digs in from the NW and moves overhead during the afternoon. Guidance probabilities for rain appear underdone in this environment as scattered to numerous coverage is favored, especially Sunday afternoon and evening with a boost from daytime instability. The low level thermal trough is firmly in place over the western Great Lakes by Monday morning with low temperatures in the upper 40s still within reach outside of the larger metro areas. Deterministic and ensemble model guidance continue to project single digit 850 mb temperatures to start the day which rebound quickly as the mid/upper level low shifts eastward. A stray shower also remains in play, especially toward the Thumb region, during the morning until confluent NW flow develops to help ensure dry weather for the afternoon and Monday night. Slightly below normal highs in the upper 70s are reachable as the thermal trough shifts eastward. Weak surface high pressure is supported by a mid/upper level short wave ridge Monday night and Tuesday. Dry weather and a few degrees of warming occur through mid week within the slowly progressive large scale flow. High temperatures return to the lower 80s during mid week while the next chance of rain is carried in by the current Pac NW system. Extended range global models project it arrives in the Great Lakes by Wednesday. MARINE... A cold front will progress across the Great Lakes while expanding shower and thunderstorm chances today. Any stronger storm development will be capable of producing wind gusts aoa 34 knots and/or small hail. Winds veer to the northwest in the wake of the passing front and will increase intensity and remain elevated through Sunday as cooler air is ushered in. Wind gusts will likely range around 25 to 30 knots through this weekend. The switch in wind direction from the northwest will quickly build wave heights in and around the Thumb and Small Craft Advisories are in effect beginning tonight. High pressure builds back in Monday and Tuesday which will bring lighter winds to the area. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Monday for LHZ421-441. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Monday for LHZ422. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Monday for LHZ442-443. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....CB DISCUSSION...BT MARINE.......AM You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  028 FXUS61 KBUF 221045 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 645 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added waterspouts to the forecast beginning this evening. Increasing risk for severe storms today through Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon through Sunday afternoon. 2) Cool, upper level low to bring lake effect rain Sunday afternoon through Tuesday night. Cool Sunday night through Monday night. 3) Showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday with the passage of Upper level trough axis. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Showers and scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon through Sunday afternoon. A deepening area of low pressure, advancing from Michigan this morning to just north of Lakes Erie and Ontario Sunday morning- afternoon will push a warm front across our region today, followed by a cold front late tonight through midday Sunday. Instability will increase to around 500 to 1000 J/KG of MUCAPE late this afternoon and through the evening hours which will support scattered thunderstorms. A modest wind flow through 10K feet could bring a few stronger storms with damaging wind gusts, though the overall warm, moist environment with a 10K warm cloud depth is not the greatest for large hail growth. Combined with peak heating of the day, a few stronger storms will exist across our region (marginal to slight risk level west of the Genesee Valley), before overnight convection and instability begins to wane. Any storm in this increasingly moisture rich environment could bring a locally heavy downpour. Additionally, as increasing EL heights force the convective cloud depth to grow to over 25K feet, combined with a deepening 850 hPa to lake surface temperature gradient, a few waterspouts may form under the approaching upper level low. A shortwave trough within the base of the negatively tilted upper level low early Sunday combined with the occluded front will pass across our region early Sunday. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be likely ahead of the frontal boundary Sunday...these within a typical summer humid airmass. A few stronger storms will be possible, especially along and south of the NYS Thruway along with the potential both damaging wind gusts and hail as lapse rates steepen. PWats around 1.5 inches will allow for a few drenching downpours of rain as well. Expect the rain showers to end from west to east through midday...though attention will quickly turn to a lake effect response. Key Message 2...Cool, upper level low to bring lake effect rain Sunday afternoon through Tuesday night. Cool Sunday night through Monday night. An early taste of fall Sunday night through Monday night as a cool upper level low rotates across our region. Temperatures at 850 hPa will plummet towards +7 to +8C across the eastern Great Lakes. This will generate a lake effect rain response with the cool air flowing over the very warm lakes. Broken bands of lake effect rain will become disorganized through the day Monday with daytime heating and the passage of a trough, but both Sunday night a decent plume of lake effect rain, centered just near and south of Buffalo and Watertown, and Monday night into Tuesday centered ESE of the Lakes is expected. This rain will diminish Monday night off Lake Erie, and Tuesday and Tuesday night off Lake Ontario. In addition to the rain, there will be the potential for waterspouts along lake convergent boundaries with tall EL heights combined with the cool air associated with the upper level low over the warm lakes. Overnight lows will be some 5 to 8 degrees below normal Sunday night and Monday night, while high temperatures Monday will be some 10 to 15 degrees below late August normals. Key Message 3...Showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday with the passage of Upper level trough axis. A surface trough, combined with an axis of an upper level low will pass across the eastern Great Lakes region Monday. Instability is not too impressive, generally under 300 J/KG of MUCAPE, but increasing low level lapse rates of 6.5 to 7.0 C/km will aid in the generation of more widespread shower activity through the late morning and early afternoon hours. Behind the initial cold front PWATs will not be as great, generally around an inch which will keep any heavier downpours limited, but the increasing lapse rates and lowering wet bulb zero heights could bring small hail within any stronger convective cell Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... For the 12Z TAFs VFR flight conditions are found, with upstream convection over Lake Erie dwindling as cloud tops warm. These flight conditions will persist for the next 6 to 12 hours. A warm front extending eastward across the TAF region will also usher in deeper instability and moisture that will bring showers and scattered thunderstorms to the TAF region by mid afternoon. The greatest threat for storms along with localized gusty winds will be WNY. Then as activity pushes eastward through the evening and overnight waning instability will begin to limit the thunder threat. Isolated showers will likely remain through the balance of Saturday night. Outlook... Sunday through Monday...Periodic showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms with associated MVFR/IFR...with mainly VFR expected outside of any precipitation. Monday night through Tuesday night...Lake effect rain, mainly east and southeast of the Lakes with associated restrictions diminishing off Lake Erie Monday night and Tuesday and off Lake Ontario Tuesday and Tuesday night...otherwise mainly VFR. Wednesday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Behind a departing area of surface high pressure, a modest southeasterly to southerly flow will continue through the day today. A deepening area of low pressure passing just north of the Lakes will push first a warm front (today) and later a cold front (Sunday) across the lakes...with showers and a few thunderstorms along each frontal boundary. Behind the cold front Sunday, an upper level low will bring an early taste of autumn with a brisk west wind developing within a decently strong pressure gradient and moderate instability over the Lakes. While initial southerly flow Sunday may bring small craft conditions to the lakes Sunday, the southwest flow under the upper level low Sunday night through Monday night...and then westerly flow Tuesday will likely continue the choppy waters on the Lakes with SCA likely. In addition to the brisk winds, there will be the potential for waterspouts with tall EL heights combined with the cool air associated with cyclonic flow around the upper level low over the warm lakes. Initial waterspout development will be as early as tonight over Lake Erie...and later tonight over Lake Ontario. This threat will continue through at least Monday night. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thomas AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Thomas  068 FXUS61 KPHI 221047 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 647 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Aviation section for the 12Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. One disturbance passes off the Mid-Atlantic coast today, followed by a cold front late tonight through Sunday morning. A period of showers and thunderstorms is likely with localized flooding. 2. Fair weather is expected to return Monday and should last into the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...One disturbance passes off the Mid-Atlantic coast today, followed by a cold front late tonight through Sunday morning. A period of showers and thunderstorms is likely with localized flooding. The base of an upper trough associated with an H5 low over central Canada will move through the Mid-Atlantic later today. Some showers, perhaps a thunderstorm, will impact Delmarva and extreme southern New Jersey later this morning into early afternoon. However, the previous threat for flooding has diminished as the heaviest rain looks to stay south and east of the area. WPC has removed the Slight Risk (2/4) for Excessive Rainfall and the Marginal Risk (1/4) is focused on Delmarva and Cape May county in New Jersey. A cold front approaches tonight and the upper trough becomes negatively tilted over the Northeast. Another round of showers and possible thunderstorms will develop late tonight and continue into Sunday morning. Instability will be marginal with up to 500 or so J/kg of SBCAPE and MUCAPE, but 0-6 km Bulk Shear values will be upwards of 45 to 50 kt. CAMs showing the potential for some strong to possibly severe thunderstorms mainly north and west of Philadelphia and into northern New Jersey after midnight tonight and into the pre-dawn hours Sunday morning. Locally heavy rain may lead to instances of localized flash flooding in these areas as well. Cold front passes through the region late Sunday morning, and conditions improve Sunday afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2...Fair weather is expected to return Monday and should last into the middle of next week. More zonal flow with some subtle ridging moves in for the first half of the week. At the surface, high pressure will mainly be in control, resulting in dry and tranquil weather through Wednesday. Temperatures should be seasonable through this stretch. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...MVFR CIGs in the morning, and MVFR CIGs may persist through the day. Cannot rule out CIGs lifting to VFR at all but KMIV/KACY, but confidence is low. VSBY restrictions in RA/BR at KMIV/KACY from morning through midday or so. E-SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Low confidence. Tonight...CIGs lower to IFR with MVFR VSBYs. SHRA with TSRA, mainly at the I-95 corridor terminals and KRDG/KABE late. E-SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Low confidence. Outlook... Sunday...MVFR or lower in SHRA/TSRA. Improving conds in the afternoon. Sunday night through Wednesday...VFR. NSW. && .MARINE... Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions on the waters today and tonight. East winds around 10 kt will become SE 10 to 15 kt later today and tonight. Ocean seas will average 2 to 3 ft. VSBY restrictions in showers and perhaps a thunderstorm today, then another round of showers and thunderstorms will impact the waters late tonight. Outlook... Sunday through Wednesday...No marine headlines expected. Showers continue Sunday morning, ending Sunday afternoon. Fair weather thereafter. Rip Currents... Today...East to southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with breaking waves of 2 to 3 feet and easterly swells with a period of 6 to 8 seconds will result in a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for the Jersey Shore and a LOW risk for Delaware Beaches. On Sunday, winds shift to the southwest at 10 to 15 mph in the morning, then to the west in the afternoon. Breaking waves will be 1 to 2 feet with light southerly swells with a 6 to 8 second period. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MPS/OHara/Staarmann AVIATION...MPS/OHara/Staarmann MARINE...MPS/OHara/Staarmann  084 FXUS63 KLMK 221047 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 647 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * A cold front will bring a chance for showers and storms this afternoon. A few storms may become strong east of I-65, with the main severe hazards being gusty to damaging winds and hail. * Mild and dry conditions are expected for Sunday through Tuesday. * Warming temperatures and low rain chances return by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Clear skies and calm winds has allowed for valley fog to develop. Fog will begin to burn off as the sun rises. A shortwave trough will move through the region today, bringing a surface cold front with it. Given that these features will be moving through in the afternoon, this will bring a lifting mechanism to present moisture and ample instability. Looking to see showers and storms develop late morning and into the early afternoon along and ahead of the cold front. 25kts of 0-6km shear and 3500 J/kg of SBCAPE will allow for a few strong to severe storms. Main hazards will be damaging winds and hail. As the cold front pushes southeast over the region, it will bring showers and storms with it. Main timeframe is 1PM to 8PM ET. The greatest threat area will be over northern and eastern Kentucky. Overnight, skies will clear and winds will become light. With recent precip from afternoon showers, patchy fog development will be possible. Drier air will build into the region and allow temperatures to fall into the low-to-mid 60s by Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Drier and slightly cooler air will remain over the region through early next week as high pressure and northwesterly flow aloft dominate. Morning lows will be in the low 60s and some areas falling into the upper 50s. Afternoon dew points are expected to be in the 50s and low 60s, which will lend to more comfortable conditions. Tuesday, we will see ridging over the western CONUS begin to broaden and push into the mid-Mississippi Valley. This will increase temperatures in the lower Ohio Valley back to near normal. At the same time, a warm front will push northeast into the Tennessee Valley. If this front makes it into the lower Ohio Valley, we will see increased moisture and chances for showers and storms. If this front stays to the southwest, we will likely remain dry through mid next week. Thursday, a trough will deepen and move through the Ohio Valley, bringing a weak cold front with it. This system will likely bring another chance for showers and storms. Behind the cold front, drier air will move into the region. Though, temperatures will remain around normal. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 647 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Winds will pick up out of the southwest ahead of a cold front moving in from the north. As this front passes through in the afternoon, winds will gust up to 22kts and shift to the northwest. PROB30s are currently in the TAFs from about 15-23Z for showers and storms along the front. With sunset, winds will relax and precip will dissipate. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRW LONG TERM...SRW AVIATION...SRW  034 FXUS64 KEWX 221045 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 545 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 534 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Heat Advisory in effect for the northern Hill Country, I-35 Corridor, and Coastal Plains through Sunday. - Brief and isolated showers and storms possible over Central Texas this afternoon. - August heat wave continues with no significant rain or heat relief in sight. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The forecast has long called for a hot weekend and it that won't be changing as upper level ridging remains steady over the southern Rockies and southern Plains. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through the weekend for the northern Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains. For these areas, high temperatures both Saturday and Sunday are expected to rise into the 102F to 105F range with heat indices up to about 109F. These conditions can become dangerous if adequate steps are not taken to stay cool and hydrated. Overnight temperatures stay in the mid to upper 70s within the advisory areas, providing meager relief. While the atmospheric profile looks relatively dry with a patch of modest precipitable water extending from West Texas into the Central Gulf, the weakly anticyclonic flow around the nearby upper level ridge will help push a zone of slightly higher moisture straddling a baroclinic zone aloft near our region today. The slight rise in moisture results in convective temperatures in the latest HREF to be subtly lower this afternoon compared to Friday, ranging generally between 100-103F. This implies daytime heating alone may be sufficient to spark a few isolated and gusty shower or even a brief thunderstorm this afternoon. Rain chances remain on the low side (15 to 20 percent) and focused over the Hill Country to Austin metro area, but is depicted in some of the hi- res models. Any shower would likely be brief, but the accompanying gustiness and rain could bring temporary respite from the heat. The baroclinic support is lower for Sunday, so chances look lower for this type of isolated shower activity. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The heat wave won't be going away anytime soon. Without any notable amplification of the jet stream to its north, the strong ridge keeping our hot airmass in place doesn't have any travel plans this upcoming week. High temperatures will continue to be near or over 100F each day, with only slight fluctuations day to day. Regardless of whether the scales tip towards additional Heat Advisory extensions/issuances or not, the bottom line is that the summer heat continues. The forecast remains dry as subsidence from the ridge prevents shower formation, though there could be some potential for a few showers to sneak into the region Friday as the tail end of a decaying front brushes the area. Otherwise, the current weather pattern offers slim pickings for rain through the end of August. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 534 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR flight conditions prevail through the period. A few patchy low clouds may develop after sunrise this morning and again into Sunday morning but not expecting any flight impacts across the area terminals. Otherwise, there will be some passing high level clouds, mainly into and through this morning and again later tonight into early Sunday. This afternoon with daytime heating perhaps could see a stray shower or storm pop up in the northern portions of the region, but not expecting any impacts for the local TAF sites. We'll monitor KAUS the most to see if anything tries to approach. Winds remain light at around 10 kt or less with directions from the south-southwest to out of the east- southeast along the Rio Grande. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 105 79 105 79 / 10 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 104 77 104 78 / 10 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 103 76 103 76 / 10 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 103 76 102 76 / 10 10 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 104 78 104 77 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 104 78 103 79 / 10 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 102 73 102 74 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 103 75 103 76 / 10 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 104 76 103 77 / 10 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 103 77 102 77 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 104 76 104 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ171>173-191>194- 205>209-220>225. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...62  097 FXUS63 KDVN 221048 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 548 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather expected through the weekend. - Outside of yet another system centered around Wednesday, mainly dry conditions are forecast to prevail until late next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Deep northwesterly flow aloft across the Upper Midwest through Sunday with high pressure shifting eastward from the Plains across the area. This will bring quiet weather to the area through the weekend. Today and Sunday are forecast to have similar high temperatures with slightly cooler temperatures on Sunday. The biggest change will be dewpoints falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s on Sunday resulting in lower humidity. Gusty winds are expected today with high pressure to our west and north to northwesterly winds of 10 to 14 MPH and gusts up to 25 MPH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to continue through much of the next week with some operational models showing a transition to more zonal flow across the CONUS to end the next week. Although there are numerous disturbances moving through the flow passing near to the area the next chance (20 to 35%) for showers and storms appears to be late Tuesday night through Wednesday when a stronger shortwave moves across the region. Rainfalls will be light with forecast probability of a tenth of an inch of rain or more near 0 percent. Monday is expected to be the coolest day of the period with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s and low temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. High temperatures the rest of the week are forecast to be in the lower to mid 80s. Monday night onward, low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 546 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Pleasant / VFR weather is expected through the next 24 hours, as high pressure moves into the region with dry air with it. Northwest winds will be steady at 7-12 kts today, gusting to around 20 kts in the late morning and afternoon hours. Tonight, light northwest winds are expected with clear skies. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cousins LONG TERM...Cousins AVIATION...Ervin  124 FXUS62 KCAE 221049 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 649 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated 12z Aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm chances. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm chances. Persistent upper ridging that was in place the last week will give way to troughing over the eastern US. This will lead to more seasonal temperatures with blended guidance highs in the upper 80s and low 90s and lows in the upper 60s and low 70s. Relatively high confidence in the temperature forecast with a limited interquartile range within blended guidance. Drier air is beginning to work its way into the area with northwest flow strengthening through today. This will limit convective coverage, although lingering low level moisture, especially in the eastern portion of the forecast area will support isolated storms with moderate instability and HREF sbCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg. By Sunday, NAEFS mean indicates PWATs will be around the tenth percentile, around an inch and while can't completely rule out a stray storm with a strong moisture gradient near the southern portion of the forecast area, expected mostly dry conditions. While isolated diurnally driven storms will be possible early this week, increasing moisture mid to late week will likely lead to higher coverage of storms each afternoon with LREF probabilities around 50- 70% of PWATs greater than 1.75 inches Wednesday through the end of the week and weak shortwaves leading to increased forcing. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... IFR/LIFR Ceilings in place with improvement to VFR expected this afternoon. Widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings visible on satellite imagery this morning with lingering low level moisture and a stalled weak front. Ceilings will slowly improve after sunrise with restrictions hanging into the afternoon. Patchy visibility restrictions possible as well but the dominant restrictions will be low ceilings. Isolated storms possible this afternoon but confidence is too low to include in TAFs at this issuance as drier air aloft will continue to move into the area. Widespread restrictions tonight appear unlikely, although will need to monitor how quickly drier air moves into the area. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated storms each afternoon with higher coverage of storms expected by midweek. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...96 AVIATION...PL/96  214 FXUS61 KRNK 221052 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 652 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated PoPs for lingering light showers overnight. Low stratus deck may hang around through most of this morning, then become partly cloud in the afternoon as a cold front approaches the area. Aviation Forecast Updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front pushing into the region late today will bring another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. 2) Drier cooler weather returns Sunday and continues into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front pushing into the region late today will bring another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Late this afternoon, dark clouds will gather over the mountains as an upper-level trough begins pushing a cold front into the region. Thunderstorms will ignite first across the mountains, gradually spreading east into the foothills and Piedmont through the evening hours. Afternoon temperatures will top out in the upper 70s in the higher elevations and reach the low to mid-80s across the lower terrain, heating the humid lower atmosphere. Breaks in the cloud cover alongside cooling air aloft will allow the boundary layer to destabilize, creating conditions capable of triggering a few strong to severe thunderstorms. Any severe storms that develop will bring the risk of localized downbursts and damaging winds. As the night progresses, west winds will strengthen behind the front, steadily drying out the atmosphere and causing the showers to diminish and exit the area completely by midnight. KEY MESSAGE 2: Drier cooler weather returns Sunday and continues into early next week. Following the passage of the front, a much cooler and drier air mass will settle into the region as high pressure builds east across the Mid-Atlantic. The coolest air will arrive on Sunday and Monday, keeping high temperatures in the 70s across the mountains and holding them in the low to mid-80s to the east. Morning temperatures on Sunday and Monday will drop into the 50s, with a few mountain locations slipping into the low 50s. Patchy morning fog will drift through the mountain river valleys, giving way to cool, crisp, and dry afternoons across much of the region through Wednesday. By Thursday, the surface high pressure and upper-level trough will begin to break down, allowing moisture to return and scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop once again. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High-end MVFR to low-end VFR ceilings will persist across the area through this morning, with a stubborn stratus deck serving as the primary restriction. Light surface winds will do little to scour out the trapped moisture through mid- morning, keeping cloud bases low. By afternoon, solar heating and increased vertical mixing will lift ceilings back into VFR territory. However, an approaching cold front will push into the region later in the day, triggering a round of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. While overall coverage will remain scattered, strong surface heating will allow a few isolated cells to become strong to severe late in the day. OUTLOOK... Drier airmass situated over the Great Lakes will sink into the area Sunday into early next week. Should be mainly VFR aside from any late night fog, mainly LWB/BCB. Next system appears to bring some chances for storms Wednesday with possibility for sub-VFR cigs/vsbys. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RCS AVIATION...RCS  241 FXUS63 KARX 221053 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 553 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A dry and pleasant weekend with highs in the low 70s to low 80s. - Next widespread chance (30 to 55%) for showers and storms in Tuesday into Wednesday - Seasonable temperatures continue for next week with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1147 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Today - Monday: Dry and Seasonable After this shortwave exits the region, northwest flow returns as a trough sets up to our east and a ridge to our west. This ridge will be at its strongest over the weekend across the central CONUS. While in between these two features, our region will be under the influence of surface high pressure helping to keep conditions dry and temperatures in the low 70s to low 80s. Dewpoints also lower during the weekend into the 50s resulting in a pleasant day for each of the next three days. Heading into Monday this ridge breaks down as a shortwave trough moves across southern Canada. Tuesday - Wednesday: Storm Potential Returns Ensemble and deterministic guidance are in good agreement that the shortwave moves down into northern Minnesota on Tuesday resulting in increased precipitation chances for the Upper Midwest during this two day stretch. The timing and placement of where the precipitation will end up at is still uncertain. These details, as well if any of these storms have severe potential, will be ironed out over the next few days. Thursday - Saturday: Dry Early, More Storm Potential Into the Weekend Once the shortwave passes through the area, northwest flow continues for Thursday allowing for much of the region to remain relatively dry. By Friday, the upper-level pattern switches to a more zonal flow. Heading into the weekend members from both the GEFS (25 to 40%) and EPS (20 to 30%) are highlighting the potential for more showers and storms. The deterministic GFS and ECMWF also show a wave impacting the Upper Midwest during this time, however it is still too far out to be confident in this scenario occurring. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 552 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Outside of the usual troublesome Wisconsin River valley during overnight periods, VFR conditions with winds out of the northwest are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. A few clouds in the 5-10 kft range may be seen over the next few hours before mostly clear skies prevail. Some gusts to around 25 knots expected this afternoon. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cecava AVIATION...Ferguson  227 FXUS63 KGRR 221052 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 652 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered Showers/Storms Press East Today - Cooler and Breezy Sunday into Monday - Midweek Rain Chances && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Scattered Showers/Storms Press East Today Prefrontal scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed in a weakly sheared environment with MUCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg. This activity was best depicted by the 00z HRRR, though several of the CAMs have had at least somewhat of a clue. While many areas will completely avoid rain into the morning hours, small pockets of 0.25" or more are possible mainly near and west of US 131 where elevated instability is present. As the cold front moves into the region in the 12z-15z time frame, rain chances will press east with the front, and by 18z much if not all of the showers/storms will push east of US 127. One exception may be a few showers and storms that develop along the lakeshore after 21z underneath a post-frontal vort lobe that swings through the U.P. and WI, helping generate some precip over Lake Michigan given a somewhat more unstable boundary layer. NBM is not really picking up on this, but we may need to introduce POPs along the lakeshore for the evening hours depending on upstream convective trends this afternoon. - Cooler and Breezy Sunday into Monday Anomalous upper troughing, as indicated by the 00z ECWMF's 500mb height anomalies of ~3 standard deviations below normal across the Great Lakes on Sunday, will assuredly cause cold air advection in the lower levels and also enhance surface wind speeds Sunday into Monday. Normal highs are in the low 80s, but we should max out around 70 to the low 70s on Sunday and maybe a touch warmer Monday. Wind gusts of 25 mph or greater are likely on Sunday, with gusts of 20 mph or greater likely on Monday. - Midweek Rain Chances Upper troughing returns in the Wednesday to Thursday time frame, with some weak upper jet divergence moving in. At the surface, a cold front is shown by model guidance to move through the Great Lakes. This system will not be tapping Gulf moisture, and the low and mid level winds don't look strong at this time. Still, there will be an opportunity for some scattered showers and storms with timing better pinned down as we get closer to this event. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 652 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A surface cold front will lead to a wind shift today (SW to NW) and also help push shower and thunderstorm activity east of the region with time. Have removed precipitation out of the MKG and GRR TAFs with this update as there is just a slight chance (10-20%) that a shower or thunderstorm could impact those terminals mainly through 15z or so. Otherwise, LAN and JXN would have the best shot at a shower or thunderstorm until about 18z before ending. Later this evening, especially closer to 00z, some high resolution model guidance shows a few scattered showers/storms trying to move in off Lake Michigan, possibly impacting MKG around or after 00z. Will keep an eye on trends. && .MARINE... Issued at 258 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 As a cold front moves through the region today, winds will turn NW after 12z with a good fetch over the lake. With cold air advection taking place today into Sunday, this will be a setup for hazardous winds and waves to small craft and also hazardous swim conditions especially south of Pentwater today and then all areas on Sunday. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements are in effect for all marine areas starting 8am today and lasting through Sunday evening. The north sides of piers will be especially dangerous, and piers may be swamped by waves. Sunday will likely feature the highest wave activity with 4 to 6 feet expected. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for MIZ037-043- 050-056-064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hoving AVIATION...Hoving MARINE...Hoving  244 FXUS63 KIND 221053 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 653 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated/scattered showers and a few t-storms are possible early this morning with isolated convection possible again late today - Cooler and less humid weather expected Sunday through Tuesday with highs mainly in the 70s to low 80s. - Areas of late night/early morning fog will occur Saturday and Sunday nights. - Dry weather expected Monday and Tuesday with increasing chances for rain and storms mid-late next week. && .DISCUSSION (Today through Friday)... Issued at 302 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Today through Sunday... Expect multiple embedded waves within upper troughing to move through the region this weekend while northwest flow persists. Current KIND radar imagery depicts scatters showers and a few storms pushing into central Indiana early this morning. This convection is associated with an MCS which has been gradually weakening through the overnight as it is outpacing the more unstable environment back across IL. Additional showers and a few storms are possible through the morning with the disturbance pushing through, but weak forcing will limit coverage. Look for winds to turn northwesterly by mid-morning once a cold front passes. Drier air filtering in should promote mostly dry conditions later today into tonight. However, a subtle backdoor front and marginal low-level moisture could support a few showers or a stray storm, mainly across far northwestern counties. Light winds combined with mostly clear skies Saturday night supports the potential for patchy fog. Any fog that develops will quickly mix out Sunday morning. Another subtle impulse could promote a few light showers over far NE counties Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, look for pleasant weather with cooler weather from persistent northwest flow. Highs on Saturday are expected to range from the upper 70s to low 80s whiles highs on Sunday generally range from the mid 70s to low 80s. Sunday night through Tuesday... Broad area of surface high pressure will push SE into the Ohio Valley through the period, providing for much drier conditions, with dewpts falling into the 50s. As a result most areas will see low temperatures in the 50s Sunday night. Light winds and mostly clear skies will lead to another night with areas of fog Sunday night. A weak system in the NW flow aloft is expected to move across the MO/mid-MS valleys Monday into Tuesday. At present the only expected effect from this system will be increasing mid-high clouds. This should limit fog chances Monday night and keep high temperatures in the 70s most areas Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday through Friday... Another upper wave/surface cold front will move through during the period. Confidence in timing is very low considering the system is currently off the west coast, so for now will only have some low PoPs. Seasonable temperatures are expected with increasing humidity with increasing SW flow in the low levels. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 653 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Impacts: - A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out today - Low chance for brief fog at outlying sites through 12Z today, fog possible at the outlying sites late tonight - NW winds sporadically gusting up to 18-22 kt today Discussion: Predominately VFR conditions are expected today, but a stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out today. Brief fog may develop at the outlying sites through 12Z, additional fog is possible at the outlying sites late tonight. Brief MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled out between 12-16Z today near LAF/IND. Winds will increase and veer slightly to 290-320 degrees later this morning. Winds may sporadically gust up to 18-22 kt through late afternoon. Morning cloud cover could limit diurnal mixing and peak gusts slightly. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ AVIATION...Melo DISCUSSION...Crosbie/Melo  236 FXUS64 KMAF 221053 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 553 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 552 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Hot temperatures continue through the forecast period with little to no chance of rain. - Drink plenty of fluids and seek shade frequently as heat illnesses due to prolonged exposure to heat may occur. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 147 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Very little change in the forecast this weekend with the "heat dome" in full control. Highs continue to climb around a degree a day as the upper ridge settles directly overhead. Temperatures will reach around 105 for locations like Snyder, Big Spring, and Colorado City where the Heat Risk will reach the Extreme category. This means that without proper hydration or adequate cooling, even healthy people are at risk of heat exhaustion or worse. Strongly consider canceling outdoor activities in the afternoon and stay hydrated. Take breaks in the air-conditioning as fans will not be adequate in this type of heat. A Heat Advisory has been issued and will likely be extended into next week and possibly expanded west with time. Showers and storms are expected to develop to our north this evening around LUB. These could drift south this evening, but will likely be dissipating by the time they enter our area. Gusty, outflow winds are still possible though. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 147 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The upper ridge will flatten early next week, but remain directly over our region. This will bring the peak of the current heat wave Monday/Tuesday with nearly all locations at or above 100 degrees. Heat Advisories may be expanded during this time as the heat wave enters a week in duration. The ridge shifts west late in the week helping decrease temperatures by a few degrees. Northwest flow will develop aloft and could bring in a few storms from the TX Panhandle. Right now, rain chances remain low (<30%), with the best chances across the northern Permian Basin Thursday/Friday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 552 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR will continue with light south winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 104 76 104 76 / 0 10 0 0 Carlsbad 101 72 101 73 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 102 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 100 73 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 93 69 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 100 71 100 72 / 0 10 0 0 Marfa 94 63 94 63 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 101 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 100 75 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 102 74 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Borden-Howard-Mitchell-Scurry. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...29  271 FXUS62 KGSP 221054 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 654 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A slight increase in PoPs today, and a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms has been added to most of the NC mountains this afternoon and evening. Aviation discussion was updated for the 12z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon through early evening, mainly near the Blue Ridge Escarpment and in the mountains near the Tennessee border later this evening. A few storms may become severe, with damaging wind gusts being the main threat. 2. Drier weather returns Sunday through early next week, with afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances returning by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon through early evening, mainly near the Blue Ridge Escarpment and in the mountains near the Tennessee border later this evening. A few storms may become severe, with damaging wind gusts being the main threat. Convection has finally waned, leaving plenty of stratus that will linger thru mid to late morning. A digging upper trough over the western Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley will increase NWLY bulk shear across the Ohio Valley and into the Southern Appalachians later today. Drier air is starting to filter in behind yesterday's frontal passage, but enough moisture will remain to allow for at least isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon across the mountains and adjacent foothills. The latest CAMs are not too excited about coverage or intensity with this activity. The bigger concern may be with anything that develops upstream over the Ohio Valley. Some of the CAMs show loosely organized multicell clusters diving SE toward the NC mountains. There is some concern that some of these storms could be strong to severe as they cross the TN/NC line this evening. The new Day 1 Convective Outlook has expanded a marginal risk into the NC mountains to account for this potential. Whether any of this would survive east of the mountains remains in doubt. CIN should be increasing this evening, and MUCAPE will be decreasing. Despite this, some of the CAMs, along with the ECMWF and Canadian, suggest some activity may track into the NC NW Piedmont late evening. The NBM PoPs do not reflect this, and are on the low side overall. Otherwise, it should be a typical late August day with highs near normal with muggy dewpts. Key message 2: Drier weather returns Sunday through early next week, with afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances returning by midweek. An upper low closes off over the Great Lakes Sunday, then wobbles slowly east into Quebec thru the first half of next week. This will result in a deep trough axis persisting roughly along the Appalachians to the East Coast, which will put the forecast area in a drier W/NW flow pattern. Dewpts should dip into the 50s to lower 60s Sunday and Monday, combined with temps in the 80s will be a refreshing break from the hot, humid weather we've been experiencing. The pattern will gradually modify, with another trough digging into the Midwest and allowing return flow to bring moisture back into the region by the middle of next week. Some diurnal convection may return Tuesday and Wednesday, then more substantial coverage of convective activity on Thursday with an approaching cold front from the NW. Temps will remain near normal thru the week, but humidity will gradually increase, with dewpts back into the upper 60s to lower 70s by Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: IFR to MVFR stratus should start to scatter out and lift later this morning to VFR by around midday at all sites. Most restrictions are due to cigs rather than vsby this morning. Isolated to widely scattered convection may develop again this aftn, mainly along the Escarpment. Latest guidance has trended a little higher in coverage in the NC foothills and NW Piedmont, so have added a PROB30 to KHKY. Otherwise, only KGSP and KGMU have high enough confidence for PROB30s for some TSRA in the roughly 20-24z time frame. There is about a 20% chance of some TS around KCLT, so not high enough to mention in the TAF at this time. Drier air filters in tonight, which should keep most fog and stratus potential to the mountain valleys. Winds will be light thru the period, mainly out of the SW east of the mountains and NNW at KAVL. Outlook: No significant chance of convection until Wednesday. Mountain valley fog and low stratus is possible each morning. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ ARK  305 FXUS63 KLOT 221055 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 555 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to widely scattered shower or storm possible (15-20% chance) this afternoon, mainly near Lake Michigan. - Dangerous swimming conditions expected at Porter County Lake Michigan beaches today, then at all Indiana and Cook County Lake Michigan beaches late tonight and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A cold front is currently analyzed roughly from a Chicago to Galesburg line early this morning and is continuing to slowly drift south and east out of our forecast area. Generally speaking the better shower and thunderstorm coverage ahead of the front has been in central IL, but a couple of showers have been festering in southern Newton, Jasper, and Benton counties. These showers may briefly produce a rouge lightning strike prior to exiting these areas over the next hour, but otherwise dry conditions are expected for the rest of the night. In the wake of the cold front, winds will become northwesterly and gradually increase in speed through the morning with gusts expected to peak around 20-25 mph (locally up to 30 mph) this afternoon. These northwest winds will build waves on Lake Michigan today and result in dangerous swimming conditions, especially into Porter County, IN beaches. As wind directions become more northerly tonight, the large waves are forecast to pivot westward into Lake (IN) County and Cook County beaches overnight tonight and will persist through Sunday evening. As a result, a Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect for Porter County, IN starting at 10 AM today and lasting through Sunday evening with new Beach Hazard Statement issued for Lake (IN) and Cook Counties starting late tonight through Sunday evening. If planning to head to the beach today make sure to check the surf conditions and remember to stay dry when waves are high! Aside from the breezy north-northwest winds today, mostly dry conditions are expected as drier air filters into the region. However, broad upper troughing over the Great Lakes is expected to linger through much of today and will allow the shortwave trough in northern WI to pivot overhead this afternoon. While overall moisture looks to be meager to say the least, forecast soundings continue to show some modest instability and some low- level moisture lingering near Lake Michigan which may be sufficient to kick off isolated to widely scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm this afternoon (15-20% chance). That said, no severe weather is expected today and any showers/storms that do develop should wane around or shortly after sunset. Otherwise, expect mostly to partly cloudy skies with seasonably cool temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. The upper troughing will gradually shift into the eastern Great Lakes tonight as high pressure builds into the Midwest. This will result in completely rain-free conditions for Sunday, Monday and most likely Tuesday. However, continued northwest flow will keep temperatures on the cooler side for this time of year with highs Sunday and Monday in the mid to upper 70s and overnight lows in the 50s to around 60. Temperatures are forecast to moderate a bit on Tuesday as winds turn more southerly, but highs still look to top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s at best. While we enjoy a well deserved break in the weather, another shortwave trough is forecast to be traversing across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains early next week before pivoting into the Great Lakes towards the middle of the week. Guidance continues to show that a cold front should develop ahead of this shortwave and is progged to move through the region sometime during theWednesday to Thursday timeframe. While there is overall good agreement on this evolution amongst ensemble and deterministic guidance, there is a lot of uncertainty around when exactly the wave and associated front will arrive in northern IL and northwest IN thus making this part of the forecast lower confidence. Bottom line expect to see increasing shower and thunderstorm chances towards the middle portion of next week and keep checking back for more specifics as we get closer in time. Though, temperatures should also be increasing towards more typical late August readings ahead of this system too. Yack && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 555 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Forecast concerns for the terminals... - Breezy northwest winds today gusting around 20-25 kts. - Low chance (15-20%) for an isolated shower or storm this afternoon. Generally quiet weather conditions are expected at the terminals today in the wake of last night's cold front. Winds will gradually increase through the morning with gusts peaking around 20-25 kts this afternoon out of the northwest. Though, a lake breeze at GYY does look to result in a period of northeast winds after 20z there. While gusts are expected to ease after sunset, 6-8 kt winds will prevail overnight into Sunday before some 15-20 kt gusts return at the tail end of the TAF period. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail through the period with SCT to BKN 5000 ft ceilings near the lake. However, there are some MVFR ceilings developing over the lake early this morning that may result in a few hour window of MVFR conditions at GYY and maybe ORD and MDW through mid-morning. Lastly, there is a low chance (15-20%) for an isolated shower or storm to develop near Lake Michigan this afternoon (mainly between 19z and 00z if they occur) as the shortwave trough over WI pivots through. Given the drying mid-levels suspect shower/storm coverage will be very spotty and therefore confidence on showers/storms actually reaching the Chicago area terminals is low. So for now have opted to forego a formal TAF mention, but will keep a close eye on trends. Yack && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Sunday evening for ILZ103-ILZ104. IN...Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Sunday evening for INZ001. Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM CDT this morning through Sunday evening for INZ002. LM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Wilmette Harbor to Calumet Harbor IL-Calumet Harbor to Gary IN. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT Sunday for Gary to Burns Harbor IN-Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  261 FXUS64 KLIX 221054 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 554 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 524 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Dangerous heat continues with afternoon heat indices in the 105-113 degree range through the weekend. Warm overnight temperatures will offer limited relief. - Isolated storms are expected this afternoon and evening with more scattered storms Sunday and Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 WV imagery shows the large stacked high over the SW CONUS sharply amplified northward into the west coast of Canada. This sharp amplification is what causeD the trough to the east of it to drop quickly into the deep south over our area. This trough will now get tempered and settle back into the SE CONUS where we should see the normal daily sh/ts develop. This does not mean there will be no storms here, we just won't see what we did yesterday. The stacked high will begin to shift east again and settle in the northern TX panhandle by the start of the new week. The good thing is that we will be in the "ring of fire" area on its periphery. We will get hot with heat advisories continuing and it is this heat that will help produce the storms that we see Sunday and Monday. We will remain in a northerly to NW flow pattern, so storms each day will still have the potential to become strong to severe. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Going into Wednesday and especially Thursday there will finally be somewhat of a pattern change. A fairly robust H5 short wave will dig over the Ozarks and down the MS River Valley. This will allow for higher POPs and lower afternoon temps going late into the next workweek. Wednesday POPs will be around climo during the diurnal cycle. By Thursday with the upper support and the upper level ridge losing some of its grip, more numerous showers and storms will be possible. Globals have continued to illustrate the same picture, so NBM has finally adjusted upward in POPs and downward with temperatures just a skosh. That said, heat headlines may still be needed on Wednesday. And sadly we cannot completely rule them out throughout the entire long term period. However, with more moisture around and upper level support helping trigger those diurnally driven showers and storms, an earlier initiation time will be likely overall limit the impacts from the heat. As time progresses and in building a bit more certainty in higher than climo POPs for Thursday and Friday, we may be able to bring down temperatures further allowing for more limits on those continued heat headlines. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 524 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Most terminals will be VFR through this cycle with the exception of HUM. HUM will have the higher of all sites for TSRA late today so the current pack will show timing in a prob group for this. && .MARINE... Issued at 1024 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Surface high pressure centered over the central Gulf will maintain a generally weak pressure gradient through much of the period. Northely winds around 10 knots will become W then SW to start the week. A predominantly light southerly flow will set up by mid week and remain through much of next week. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible with winds and waves higher in and near this activity. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087- 089>100. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...TE MARINE...TE  360 FXUS61 KALY 221056 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 656 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SPC expanded the Marginal Risk for isolated severe weather (level 1 of 5) on Sunday to now cover most of eastern NY and western New England. WPC removed the marginal risk for excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) for Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) After a dry Saturday, areas of showers and thunderstorms arrive late tonight into Sunday A.M with showers and storms returning Sunday P.M. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated severe thunderstorms across much of eastern NY and western New England Sunday P.M. 2) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue Monday and Tuesday, especially near and north of I-90, with temperatures remaining slightly cooler than normal. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Broad troughing continues developing over the Upper Great Plains into the Great Lakes today while the Northeast remains on the west side of large scale ridging over the western Atlantic. While height falls creep into western NY today, eastern NY and western New England remains under the influence of weak subsidence, keeping us dry. Tonight, our upstream trough over the Great Lakes amplifies and digs into the Ohio Valley as two shortwaves phase together with the parent cyclone taking on a negative tilt. This results in strengthening upper level diffluence over the mid-Atlantic as a warm front lifts northward with a weak sfc low developing along the boundary. Meanwhile, strengthening southwest flow aloft will also allow moisture to advect into the Northeast with PWATs rising over 1.50". Chances for showers and even a slight chance for thunderstorms increases from southwest to northeast 06 - 12 UTC Sunday as the front approaches. Guidance continues to hint that the weak sfc low will aid in a more organized area of rain/embedded storms. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the latest probabilistic guidance from the HREF continues to show potential for moderate to heavy rain late tonight into Sunday morning with a 50 - 75% chance for over 0.50" of rain 09 to 15 UTC Sun and even a 25-50% chance for over 1" of rain. However, our recent dry stretch will likely limit flooding and WPC removed the marginal risk for excessive rainfall. After this initial A.M period of rain/storms, we should have a brief break before an occluded front and stronger height falls from the closed parent low over the eastern Great lakes arrive. There remain uncertainties regarding how much instability can develop. While there will be plenty of low- level moisture, morning clouds may struggle to break for sun during the small window before the occluded front arrives Sun P.M. Even still, mid-level dry air and cooler temperatures aloft wrap eastward as the parent cyclone matures, helping to steepen lapse rates with forecast soundings showing "tall- skinny" CAPE developing. Given the high humidity, even limited insolation will contribute to sufficient instability and help generate low- topped convection. While 0-6km shear is rather impressive ranging 40-50kts, 0-3km shear only ranges 20-30kts. Should weak instability keep convection low-topped, storms will not tap into the stronger deep layer shear, decreasing the severe weather potential. SPC expanded the marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated severe weather to now cover much of eastern NY and western New England given persistent forcing ahead of the parent cyclone; however, weak instability/shear are listed as reasons will severe weather may be limited. Main concerns are damaging winds from any severe weather with a linear storm mode favored as shear vectors remain parallel to the boundary. KEY MESSAGE 2... The vertically stack closed low and associated cold pool in the eastern Great Lakes slowly advances eastward Monday into Tuesday supporting slightly cooler than normal temperatures and continued moist cyclonic flow aloft. Coverage of showers and even low- topped convection increases Monday afternoon, especially near/north of I-90, as additional shortwaves rotate around the base of the closed low. Given the cool pool aloft, it likely will not take much upscale growth before lightning occurs with even small hail possible from any taller storms. As winds aloft becoming westerly, a weak lake effect signal looks to develop downstream of Lake Ontario, supporting steadier periods of rain directed into the western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley Monday P.M into Monday night. Unsettled conditions continue into Tuesday with additional diurnally driven showers again mainly near/north of I-90 but shower coverage should be lower than Monday as the parent cyclone slowly exits into New England. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 12z Sunday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals with the exception of PSF which sports IFR visibility due to persistent fog. However, with breaks of sun this morning, this should burn off relatively quickly, yielding VFR conditions within the next hour or two. VFR conditions will then remain steady throughout the morning, giving way to lowering ceilings which will fall into the MVFR category by this afternoon and evening courtesy of increasing low-level moisture. MVFR ceilings will then persist into the overnight as a complex weather system further encroaches on the region. POU could see some light rain showers by the end of the period, so input a PROB30 from 09-12z to account for that potential. Forecast soundings indicate that PSF could see a lowered ceiling into the IFR category by the end of the period, but confidence is not very high in that element of the forecast. Winds throughout the period will prevail largely out of the southeast at sustained speeds under 10 kt. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...24/31 AVIATION...12  345 FXUS63 KLSX 221055 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 555 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will be near or a few degrees below normal in the low to mid 80s this weekend, with relatively low humidity. - Temperatures warm back up to the mid to upper 80s by midweek with slight chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 254 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The Mid Mississippi Valley remains locked in northwest flow aloft with an amplified upper level ridge centered near the Four Corners Region, and a long wave trough digging through the Ohio Valley into the Southeastern U.S. A subtle short wave embedded in the northwest flow aloft is pushing a weak cold front south through Missouri and Illinois this morning. A line of thunderstorms is moving south through central Illinois along or just ahead of the front. Expect these storms to continue moving south and out of our forecast area by 09-10Z. Temperatures behind the front will be 2 or 3 degrees cooler today in the mid 80s, and dew point temperatures will be 5+ degrees lower in most locations. High pressure drops into the Mississippi Valley behind the front with light winds and a clear sky overnight tonight. These excellent radiational cooling conditions along with the drier air behind the front will allow overnight lows to drop into the low 60s in most locations by Sunday morning. The urban heat island of St. Louis will hang on to a little more warmth, but temperatures should still drop into the mid 60s which will be the coolest lows since the beginning of August. The cool start to the day will be followed up by a cooler Sunday under the high pressure with highs in the low to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 254 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The overall weather pattern persists through next week with a ridge to the west and a trough to the east and northwest flow aloft over the Mississippi Valley. The long wave trough does attenuate somewhat in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe. This allows the ridge to to drift eastward which brings warmer temperatures and higher humidity back to the region. This doesn't look like extreme heat, just more "normal" late August heat and humidity. After another cool start to the day Monday, and highs in the low 80s, temperatures rise back into the mid and upper 80s through at least Wednesday or Thursday. Deterministic guidance shows another short wave diving southwest from south central Canada into the Great Lakes region late in the week. This pushes another cold front through the Mid Mississippi Valley with the potential for some precip and perhaps cooler temperatures for Friday. However, the LREF cluster analysis is showing variance in both the amplitude and speed of the late-week short wave. The timing and strength of the cold front along with the chance for precip that it brings is therefore questionable. Have left NBM temps and PoPs alone for the end of the week, which keeps highs in the mid to upper 80s and only sporadic slight chance PoPs. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 552 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail through the period. There are patches of river valley fog, mainly along the Missouri river locally reducing the visibility to 1SM or less. This fog should dissipate rapidly after sunrise. Additionally, isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm will move across southwest and south central Illinois through 12-13Z. While most of this precipitation won't be heavy enough to reduce the visibility, isolated heavier showers will be capable of reducing the visibility to 2SM or less for a brief period. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None.IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Carney LONG TERM...Carney AVIATION...Carney  431 FXUS64 KFWD 221057 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 557 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures near or over 100 degrees will continue through next week. An Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory remain in effect for portions of North and Central Texas through Saturday evening. - Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, and a few could be strong with gusty winds. However, most areas will remain rain-free into next week. - Hot temperatures and low humidity will contribute to increased wildfire starts through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 217 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Widespread hot weather is once again expected this afternoon across much of North and Central Texas thanks to mid-level ridging that extends well into the Northern Plains. The Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory will continue through the rest of today as temperatures in parts of North Texas reach 109 degrees and heat index values in Central Texas approach 109 degrees. Regarding the expected hot weather, there is some degree of uncertainty in today's highs given the potential for high clouds to stream into the region late this morning and early this afternoon. Similar to yesterday, there will be the potential for a large temperature spread within short distances. Guidance has continued to show better high cloud cover mainly along the Red River Counties, therefore, today's expected highs were lowered by a few degrees. With the lowering of the highs, Montague and Cooke counties were removed from the Excessive Heat Warning and placed in a Heat Advisory. The center of a mid-level high pressure system remains positioned over the Four Corners region, leaving North and Central Texas on the eastern to southeastern periphery of high. A disturbance, currently near over Kansas will continue to shift southward through the day. With the relative weakness in heights, the weak forcing attributed to the approaching shortwave may generate a few showers and storms north of the Red River this afternoon. Steering flow would push this convection south/southeastward, mainly into portions of North Texas west of I-35. Should this happen, a few showers and storms may migrate into our region this evening. Given the wide spread in temperature and dew points, gusty outflows will be possible from any storms that develops. Although the overall severe weather threat will be low, those winds may still be capable of producing damage to loose outdoor decor or small tree-limbs. Storm chances will diminish after sunset with the loss of daytime heating, leaving behind precipitation-free conditions through the rest of the night. Another warm morning is in store for much of the region with Sunday's lows in the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 217 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 On Sunday, the center of the high will shift closer to North and Central Texas, once again increasing subsidence. The subsidence will likely keep any showers and storms at bay with yet another day of temperatures in the 102-108 range. Heat headlines will likely be extended later today to account for Sunday's heat threats. As we begin a new work week, North and Central Texas will continue to be positioned to the east of the high which keeps our region in persistent northerly to northwesterly flow aloft. Models continue to advertise a series of shortwaves migrating across the region each afternoon, which would lead to at least a low potential for afternoon showers or storms. Given coverage and timing remain highly uncertain, precipitation chances next week will remain below 15%. With increasing afternoon clouds expected, a slight downward trend in temperatures can also be expected with highs largely below 104 degrees. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 557 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are present at all TAF sites as of this morning and are expected to prevail through the period. Generally southerly winds will veer SW this morning and back SE this evening, remaining light (<10KT) throughout. Thunderstorms may cross the Red River into North TX late this evening, and confidence in this scenario has increased enough to place a PROB30 into the 12Z TAFs for impacts to the D10 TRACON, including a brief northerly wind shift. The most likely timing for storms will be between 01-05Z; storm location remains uncertain. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 104 83 106 84 / 10 10 10 0 Waco 104 80 105 81 / 10 10 0 0 Paris 99 75 102 79 / 20 10 10 0 Denton 104 79 106 82 / 10 20 10 0 McKinney 103 78 105 81 / 10 10 10 0 Dallas 105 82 107 84 / 10 10 10 0 Terrell 104 78 106 81 / 10 10 10 0 Corsicana 104 80 106 81 / 10 10 0 0 Temple 104 79 106 79 / 10 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 107 77 108 79 / 10 20 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-105>107- 122-123-129-135-141>148-156>162-174-175. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ100>104- 115>121-130>134. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Hernandez