241 FXUS65 KPSR 220909 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 209 AM MST Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - High temperatures reach or exceed 110 degrees nearly every day through the next week and will be within a few degrees of daily records, while morning lows remain unusually warm. - Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect through Friday evening with daily Major to Extreme HeatRisk. - Thunderstorms will primarily favor higher terrain areas through early next week, with drier and less favorable conditions next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Extreme heat will be the primary weather hazard through the short, and long, term forecast. Early morning objective analysis shows a 596dm high pressure centered over CO/NM. Models show that this high will slowly progress eastward through the beginning of next week. Despite the center of the high moving away from our region, H5 heights over our region will remain in a 594-597dm range. With heights of this magnitude, the NBM continues to show afternoon highs (morning lows) of 110-116 (83-91) degrees across the lower deserts and 100-110 (70-80) degrees across the higher terrain areas. Temperatures of this magnitude are 5-8 degrees above daily normals and some locations could tie or break their daily records (see Climate section below). These temperatures will lead to widespread high-end Moderate to Major Heat Risk across much of the CWA and therefor the Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect. The best thunderstorm chances will exist across the higher terrain areas through the beginning of next week with only slight chances for some isolated activity across the lower deserts. Thunderstorm chances across the lower deserts for this afternoon are around 10-20%. While some hi-res models (HRRR and RRFS) are trying to pick up on some more scattered activity across south- central AZ (including the Phoenix Metro) they are likely overdoing the coverage. Models show limited moisture today (PWATs of 1.0-1.3"), mixing ratios only around 6-7 g/kg, MUCAPE values less then 500 J/kg, and around 25-50 J/kg of CIN. The hi- res models showing scattered to widespread activity for this evening are likely picking up on some upper-level divergence and colliding outflows. While there will likely be multiple outflows moving off the higher terrain this evening not much activity (other than some isolated showers and maybe a few isolated storms) is expected even if they do collide due to all the limiting factors mentioned earlier. Strong to locally severe wind gusts and areas of blowing dust will be the primary hazard with any storm this afternoon and evening, with high DCAPE values (1800-2000 J/kg). Models are in decent agreement that there will be a slight increase in moisture on Sunday and Monday (PWATs increase to around 1.1-1.6" across the area) with the highest moisture expectedon Monday. Instability will be about the same on Sunday as today, but will increase to around 1000-1500 J/kg on Monday. Additionally, mixing rations will increase to around 10 g/kg on Monday. Despite the increase in moisture, instability, and mixing ratios models show an increase in CIN (100-200 J/kg). Activity each day will depend on how the day prior plays out. But right now, Monday looks to have slightly better chances than Sunday. Either way, most of the lower deserts are expected to remain dry with the best chances (and coverage) of thunderstorms expected across the higher terrain areas to the east of the Phoenix Metro. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/... Ensemble members are in good agreement that by Tuesday drier air will start to filter back into the region as the subtropical high starts to retrograde back over our region. By the middle of the week the center of the high will be straddling the AZ/NM border and by the end of the week the center of the high will be over AZ. As the high moves overhead, PWATs will drop into a 0.8-1.2" range across our region and steering flow will be out of the S/SW. The combination of these factors will lead to poor chances for thunderstorm development across the region. The NBM shows that Tuesday and Wednesday there could be enough moisture around to support isolated thunderstorm chances for the higher terrain areas. But by the end of next week thunderstorm chances for our area shut off and will mainly be relegated to the Mogollon Rim. Unusually hot temperatures will be the main story next week. As mentioned above the subtropical high will slowly retrograde back over our region beginning on Tuesday, which will result in a gradual warming trend for our area. The high is also expected to strengthen to around 596-598dam during this time. The combination of the center settling over our region and strengthening will result in temperatures heating up to around 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Afternoon highs (morning lows) are forecasted to be in the 110-116 (85-95) degree range across the lower deserts and in the 100-110 (75-85) degree range across the higher terrain areas. The increase in temperatures will also result in an increase in HeatRisk, with widespread Extreme HeatRisk forecast for the majority of the CWA by Wednesday. There remains high confidence in the heat forecast for next week. So, the Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through next Friday and will likely need to be expanded to more areas by the middle of the week and may eventually need to be extended into next weekend. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0515Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major aviation concerns are expected through early Saturday afternoon under SCT to sometimes BKN cloud decks. Winds will follow familiar diurnal trends with periods of VRB conditions during the overnight hours. Forecast confidence decreases for late Saturday afternoon into the evening timeframe. There is a signal that VCSH/VCTS will initiate as early as 23Z, though rain chances are only around 20% at this time. To reflect convective uncertainty, PROB30 groups have been added to each metro terminal. If storms do develop, they could provide multiple outflows, resulting in gusty and erratic winds, and depending on where the outflow originate, BLDU could also become a operational factor. Changes in subsequent TAF updates should be anticipated. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation concerns are expected through the front half of the TAF period. Winds will favor a westerly component at KIPL, while VRB conditions will be common at KBLH through Saturday morning. Forecast confidence decreases as we transition into the afternoon timeframe due to uncertainty of convective activity. VCTS have been hinted at for KIPL, but rain chances currently stand at <10%. This TS signal has been consistent for the past several hours, so as to not completely ignore the potential, a PROB30 group has been added to the TAF. Gusty westerly/southwesterly winds and brief reductions in VIS will be the main concerns with any storms that come to fruition. Convection looks as if it will remain outside the vicinity of KBLH, but any changes in forecast guidance may yield the addition of a PROB30 or VCTS into that TAF as well. && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and seasonally dry conditions are expected nearly every day, through next week. Aside from a brief increase in moisture Sunday- Monday, minimum RH values each afternoon will be around 12-18% (15-25% Sun-Mon). Temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees above normal through the next week, with lower desert highs eclipsing 110 degrees most afternoons. There will be slight chances for storms each afternoon through Monday, but they will mostly favor the higher terrain areas. Drier conditions, with lower storm chances are expected by the middle of next week. Outside of thunderstorm outflow winds, winds will follow the typical diurnal tendencies with some modest afternoon upslope gustiness. && .CLIMATE... Record highs: Date Phoenix Yuma El Centro ---- ------- ---- --------- Aug 21 114 in 2019 115 in 1969 117 in 1969 Aug 22 113 in 2011 115 in 1969 117 in 1969 Aug 23 114 in 2011 115 in 2011 116 in 1969 Aug 24 115 in 2020 119 in 1985 117 in 1985 Aug 25 113 in 2011 116 in 1962 117 in 1962 Aug 26 117 in 2011 115 in 2020 115 in 1981 Aug 27 114 in 2023 120 in 1981 117 in 1981 Aug 28 117 in 2023 118 in 2023 117 in 2009 && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Friday for AZZ530>555-559- 560. CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for CAZ562-565>567- 569-570. && $$ SHORT TERM...Berislavich LONG TERM...Berislavich AVIATION...RW FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich/Benedict CLIMATE...18  771 FXUS63 KBIS 220913 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 413 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periodic low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms late tonight through Monday. - A few storms may be strong to severe in southwest and south central North Dakota during the day Sunday, far western North Dakota Sunday night, and central and eastern North Dakota on Monday. - Temperatures are favored to remain near to slightly above normal through next week, with highs mostly in the 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 413 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A highly-amplified upper level wave pattern lies over North America early this morning, with a ridge axis along the Rockies and a trough axis from Hudson Bay to the Southern Appalachian Mountains. Surface high pressure is centered over southeast Saskatchewan, which is keeping the local weather very quiet. The surface high will morph into an elongated ridge and slide over the Red River Valley by the end of the day as the upper ridge axis begins to pivot off the Northern Rockies. Quiet weather will continue through the daytime hours, with high temperatures this afternoon ranging from the mid 70s northeast to mid 80s southwest. A mid level shortwave will eject off the Northern Rockies by this evening, cutting through the ridge axis. The increasing downstream warm-air advection, moisture transport, isentropic lift, etc. could generate showers and thunderstorms in eastern Montana tonight, spreading into western North Dakota early Sunday morning. MUCAPE could exceed 1000 J/kg with effective bulk shear near 30 kts in the southwest Sunday morning, but convection should remain elevated, and most CAMs are only simulating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The 00Z NAMnest is an outlier with a couple of clusters of strong to severe storms with bowing segments in the southwest Sunday morning and into the afternoon. Proximity model soundings at Dickinson do show higher RH at the base of the EML and higher equilibrium levels in the NAMnest, but its hodographs could best be described as chaotic. Therefore, the risk for severe weather Sunday morning into the early afternoon is very low, but not zero. This could change later Sunday afternoon as diurnal heating opens the potential for surface or mixed-layer based convection. However: 1) there is high confidence in a strong capping inversion above the boundary layer, 2) a moist southeasterly surface flow is not conducive to efficient boundary layer mixing, and 3) mid level clouds and/or anvil shading from morning convection could limit diurnal heating to some extent. CAMs do show an increased probability in stronger convection over south central North Dakota mid to late Sunday afternoon along the eastern gradient of the buoyancy pool, where CIN may be relatively weaker. Still looking at a CAPE/ shear parameter space supportive of only marginally severe storms though. But regardless of intensity, there are still medium chances (30 to 60 percent) for showers and thunderstorms across much of western and central North Dakota Sunday afternoon and evening as the shortwave moves through. Increased confidence in the aforementioned southeasterly flow and cloud cover has cooled the high temperature forecast into the lower and mid 80s for all but far southwest North Dakota on Sunday. By Sunday night, a much more potent shortwave/upper low will be ejecting off the Canadian Rockies into the southern prairie provinces. Clusters of thunderstorms forming off the Montana Rockies late Sunday afternoon could cross into western North Dakota Sunday night before dissipating. If this convection is maintained, it could be strong to severe as it moves into a higher buoyancy air mass with increasing shear. The 06Z HRRR appears to show a reasonable worst-case scenario with a broken line of strong to severe storms extending from the Canadian to South Dakota borders entering the state after 10 PM CDT. Simulated surface winds gusts in the 06Z HRRR are much lower in western North Dakota though than they are in eastern Montana earlier in the evening. The thunderstorm forecast on Monday remains uncertain and may end up highly dependent on the eastward propagation of the occluded front attendant to the potent Canadian upper low. Both CAPE (~2000 J/kg) and shear (~35 kts) directly ahead of the front are projected to be sufficient for severe storms. But very few ensemble members are generating any convection along the front, likely due to an absence of mid to upper level forcing. Broad mid level height falls do eventually spread into northern North Dakota, but that may lag behind the surface front. The latest NBM has reduced PoPs to only 20 to 30 percent Monday afternoon and evening, and kept mentionable PoPs east of Highway 83. But location uncertainty in the surface front at 00Z Monday evening ranges from as far west as Minot to Dickinson (NAM) to as far east as Devils Lake to Jamestown (a small subset of GEFS members). The progression of the front is also likely to play a role in high temperatures on Monday. Strong mixing in the dry post-frontal air mass could allow temperatures to approach 90 in southwest and south central North Dakota, with at least lower 80s elsewhere. This is assuming a slightly quicker frontal progression, which ensembles do tilt towards. Ensemble guidance shows the Canadian low digging southeastward on Tuesday, but with variance in its trajectory. That uncertainty may dictate how much temperatures cool off on Tuesday, but the NBM has trended slightly warmer than previous iterations with highs in the mid/upper 70s north to lower/mid 80s south. Regardless, Tuesday is likely to be a windier day, with northwest winds gusting as high as 35 mph. There could also be some diurnally-driven showers across the north Tuesday afternoon. Ensembles favor a return to northwest flow between an eastern CONUS trough and western CONUS ridge for the second half of next week, with uncertainty on when or if the ridge might get pushed eastward. Ensemble clusters that are more heavily ECMWF-weighted are much more progressive in breaking down the ridge, while some GEFS-heavy clusters keep the ridge to our west into next weekend. The NBM broadly maintains near average temperatures through the end of next week, but is starting to trend slightly above average in southwest and south central North Dakota considering that average temperatures themselves are now beginning to cool at this time of year. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 413 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds will remain light and variable in central North Dakota while becoming southeast around 10 kts in western North Dakota this afternoon. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hollan AVIATION...Hollan  814 FXUS65 KFGZ 220915 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 215 AM MST Sat Aug 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Look for daily chances for showers and thunderstorms to continue through early next week, primarily across the higher terrain. Drier and warmer conditions are then expected to develop as a strong high pressure system builds over Arizona. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft centered over northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado early Saturday morning will slowly drift southward through Tuesday then westward toward the end of next week becoming centered over the southern portions of Arizona/New Mexico border. The net result will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms across northern Arizona through Monday or Tuesday then diminished chances as the position of the high will allow for a bit drier air and a more stable air mass to develop over northern Arizona. For Today...Monsoon moisture will remain in place. As a result, we're looking at another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with a bit more activity than seen on Friday. Southeast flow aloft will continue to favor shower and thunderstorm development midday over the Grand Canyon, Mogollon Rim, White mountains and Chuska Mountains with activity then tending to move north and east from that point. However, deep moisture still resides to the south of the Mogollon Rim and models are showing and increase activity even for Yavapai and Gila Counties. Otherwise, light winds and hot. From Sunday into Tuesday...Monsoon moisture remains in place with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. The flow aloft will remain southerly with the bulk of activity expected from the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains northward. Otherwise, with the high remaining over the southwest United States, light winds will continue along with above normal temperatures. Looking from Wednesday onward...Models appear to be trending toward high pressure aloft becoming centered over southeast Arizona/southwest New Mexico. This solution would bring in a more southwest to west flow aloft which would deliver a drier air mass as well as a capping layer aloft under the influence of weak subsidence. In addition, daytime temperatures will be on the increase, likely eventually rising to the upper 80 to lower 90s in the mountains to 105 to 110 degrees at elevations below 4000 feet. Yeah a bummer, but its still summer after all. && .AVIATION...Saturday 22/06Z through Sunday 23/06Z...Mainly VFR conditions. Isolated -SHRA KINW-KSJN through around 08Z, otherwise mainly dry overnight. Another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms after 18Z Saturday, continuing into early evening. Daytime winds southwest to northwest at 5-15 kts, light and variable overnight. Localized/brief MVFR and gusty/erratic winds up to 40 kts in stronger storms. OUTLOOK...Sunday 23/06Z through Tuesday 25/06Z...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon, highest coverage over the higher terrain. Brief/localized MVFR and wind gusts to 40 kts in stronger storms. Daytime winds southwest to west at 5-15 kts. Light and variable or terrain driven winds overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Look for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening across northern Arizona with main focus from the White Mountains and Mogollon Rim northward. Stronger storms will produce gusty and erratic winds and localized heavy rainfall. Away from storms, winds look to be southwest to northwest 5-15 mph each day, becoming variable in the evening and overnight. Monday through Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue on Monday, becoming more isolated on Tuesday and Wednesday. Stronger storms will bring gusty and erratic winds and brief downpours. Otherwise, warming daytime temperatures with southwest to west winds at 5-15 mph each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  826 FXUS65 KGGW 220915 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 315 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Typical mid to late August conditions are expected through the weekend with warm daytime conditions and comfortable nights. - Beginning this afternoon, the southwest monsoonal flow will bring another risk of thunderstorms to the region. - Warm and dry conditions resume next week as the western ridge rebounds. && .DISCUSSION... WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper ridge over the northern Rockies will begin to slide east today in response to a trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop overnight as the ridge axis moves east and a weak shortwave pushes through the ridge. Monsoonal moisture to begin streaming into eastern Montana and with high PWATs possible, some of the storms could produce heavy rain. The Pacific NW trough will knock down the ridge on Sunday with another round of storms. These storms could pull down stronger winds aloft for a marginal severe risk. Southeast winds will also be increasing today ahead of the disturbance that will make conditions on Fort Peck Lake hazardous. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect from noon today to 3 AM Sunday. Ridge rebounds early next week in the wake of the departing trough to bring dry conditions with temperatures slightly above normal. Fire weather is expected to be quiet as humidity will be on the rise with winds this weekend. Otherwise, winds are expected to decrease after the weekend and be generally light through the next seven days. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Added NBM90 to the winds for the Lake Wind period. Confidence for timing of precipitation chances over the weekend are moderate with poor continuity from forecast runs. && .AVIATION... UPDATED: 0900Z FLIGHT CONDITION: VFR DISCUSSION: Quiet weather conditions are generally expected through the TAF cycle. As a disturbance moves in from the southwest today, southeast winds will increase with scattered showers/thunderstorms overnight into Sunday evening. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 3 AM MDT Sunday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley- Garfield-McCone-Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow  895 FXUS63 KEAX 220916 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 416 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms possible this morning across eastern KS and far western Missouri. - Cooler temperatures expected this weekend. - 30 to 40% chance for showers/storms Sunday evening into Sunday night. - Temperatures should gradually warm through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Northwesterly flow aloft remains entrenched over the region between high amplitude ridging across the Rockies and western CONUS and troughing across the Great Lakes and into Appalachia. At the surface, a very weak boundary is analyzed near the northern edge of the Ozarks, with high pressure yielding mostly clear skies with light and variable winds. Convection is ongoing this morning across portions of central Nebraska, and this will slowly drift to the southeast with the mean cloud layer flow, likely weakening as it moves into eastern and northeastern Kansas. It is possible that this convection (albeit in a relatively weak form) could make its way into our CWA in far eastern KS toward the MO border by around 9 AM or so, moving off to the south (into the SGF CWA) by late morning/early afternoon, with clouds clearing behind it. With the CWA positioned between ridging to the west and troughing to the east northeast, a decent high temperature gradient is expected this afternoon, with highs across NE Missouri forecast to reach the lower 80s, with highs in the upper 80s south and southwest of the KC metro (mid 80s likely in the KC metro). On Sunday morning, an H5 50+ knot jet is progged to dig from NE Minnesota into southern Illinois on the western side of the trough across the NE CONUS. Meanwhile, a mid level vort max is projected to translate across NE/KS and into Missouri. This will help send a subtle reinforcing shot of marginally cooler and drier air, along with mid to high level cloud cover, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s (down from the mid to upper 80s) and dewpoints lowering a couple degrees. It will also bring a chance (20 to 30%) for some showers/storms to western portions of the CWA. As we head into early next week, the center of the H5 high that is currently near the Four Corners area migrates slightly to the southeast over SE New Mexico and into west Texas, with northwesterly flow aloft remaining in place over the CWA as troughing remains over the NE CONUS. This will result in gradually warming temperatures through the week and occasional low end (20 to 30%) chances for showers/storms as disturbances and vort maxes translate through the northwesterly flow on the northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1054 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Predominantly VFR conditions are expected to prevail, but have introduced PROB30s for potential shower activity around/after 12z Saturday. Prior to that potential, light and variable winds will prevail across the TAF sites and eventually yield a more prevailing NE direction. Model/CAM guidance continues to keep much of the shower/storm activity west of the terminals, but there is enough of a hint of potential to introduce PROB30 mentions with this iteration. At this time, have kept thunder mentions out with much of the depicted activity rooted quite high and with limited instability. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMW AVIATION...Curtis  058 FXUS63 KFSD 220921 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 421 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slightly cooler weather for the weekend. Today will remain dry with moderate rain chances (40-70%) returning to portions of the area Sunday through Sunday night. Rainfall amounts could exceed a tenth to a quarter of an inch. - Additional chances for rain, and potentially strong to severe thunderstorms (5-15%), are possible through next week, though details are uncertain. Continue to check the latest forecast for the most up to date information. && .UPDATE... Issued at 420 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A quiet night continues and thunderstorms have remained south of the forecast area as anticipated. Light winds and optimized radiational cooling have allowed for shallow/patchy fog development in portions of northwest Iowa. Will monitor trends, but at this time, do not expect any headlines will be needed. Today should be a pleasant day with abundant sunshine. While there may still be a slight haze from smoke aloft, models show lower concentrations working into the area through the day. Daytime rain/storm chances for Sunday remain focused mainly west of the James River Valley, with increased chances expanding east through the evening into Monday morning. SPC has maintained a Level 1 of 5 risk for severe storms in areas west of I-29 for this activity, with isolated damaging winds/large hail possible. However, model soundings would also indicate a potential for locally heavier rainfall with moistening profiles leading to precipitable water approaching 2 inches. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Quiet conditions persist this afternoon as temperatures have warmed to the 70s and 80s across the area. Quiet conditions are expected to continue for the rest of the day as the cold front has fully pushed through the area. This will keep storm chances south and west of the forecast area. Can't rule out the low possibility (less than 20%) of a shower or weak storm passing along and south of the Missouri River this afternoon, evening, and potentially into the overnight hours. Should this occur, the chance for a severe storm is low. Surface ridging will begin to slide into the forecast area tonight, resulting in light and variable winds with lows falling to the upper 50s to low 60s. Patchy fog is again on the table but with drier air in place, think that any fog that does develop will once again be tied to a few river valley's. Saturday begins the weekend on the quiet side as high pressure pushes through the Northern Plains. High temperatures will be a bit cooler in the upper 70s to low to mid 80s, with a continuation of light northerly winds. This will make for a wonderful Saturday, perfect for outdoor activities! Rain chances will increase late Saturday night through Sunday as a weak shortwave trough rounds the top of a building upper level ridge. This will result in increasing chances for rain across the area for the day on Sunday. Cloud cover with the associated chances for rain will keep high temperatures a bit cooler in the upper 70s to low 80s. While some showers are possible during the morning timeframe, the highest chances for rain will come Sunday evening and night as the main shortwave pushes through the area. The ensembles show a broad 40-70% chance for rainfall totals to exceed a tenth of an inch. Soundings show some elevated instability in place so thunderstorms are possible, though severe storms are not expected at this time due to weak shear profiles. With non-severe storms on the table, rainfall amounts could be locally higher depending on how storms track. An active pattern continues aloft for next week. Medium range guidance shows shortwave troughs continuing to push through the Northern Plains within the northwest flow regime. This will lead to chances for rain almost every day next week. However, the ensembles show a large variance in rainfall probabilities due to the differences in these upper level features. Latest machine learning (ML) guidance does show low probabilities (5-15%) for severe weather throughout the week. Details for severe weather remains uncertain so continue to check the forecast for the most up to date information. Aside from rain and storm chances, high temperatures look to remain in the upper 70s and 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Patchy light fog is possible tonight mainly in river valleys and other low lying areas, though widespread issues are not expected. The only TAF site that appears to at least have a chance of light fog is KHON, but even then we're looking at a less than 15% chance of development there. Quiet conditions are expected through the period outside of a rogue thunderstorm south of the Missouri River through sunrise today. Light and variable winds are expected through daybreak. Then winds will be mainly out of the north-northeast around 5-10 kts through the day today, but will start turning more easterly into the later evening hours. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JH/Samet DISCUSSION...Meyers AVIATION...Samet  100 FXUS63 KFSD 220922 CCA AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 422 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slightly cooler weather for the weekend. Today will remain dry with moderate rain chances (40-70%) returning to portions of the area Sunday through Sunday night. Rainfall amounts could exceed a tenth to a quarter of an inch. - Additional chances for rain, and potentially strong to severe thunderstorms (5-15%), are possible through next week, though details are uncertain. Continue to check the latest forecast for the most up to date information. && .UPDATE... Issued at 420 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A quiet night continues and thunderstorms have remained south of the forecast area as anticipated. Light winds and optimized radiational cooling have allowed for shallow/patchy fog development in portions of northwest Iowa. Will monitor trends, but at this time, do not expect any headlines will be needed. Today should be a pleasant day with abundant sunshine. While there may still be a slight haze from smoke aloft, models show lower concentrations working into the area through the day. Daytime rain/storm chances for Sunday remain focused mainly west of the James River Valley, with increased chances expanding east through the evening into Monday morning. SPC has maintained a Level 1 of 5 risk for severe storms in areas west of I-29 for this activity, with isolated damaging winds/large hail possible. However, model soundings would also indicate a potential for locally heavier rainfall with moistening profiles leading to precipitable water approaching 2 inches. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Quiet conditions persist this afternoon as temperatures have warmed to the 70s and 80s across the area. Quiet conditions are expected to continue for the rest of the day as the cold front has fully pushed through the area. This will keep storm chances south and west of the forecast area. Can't rule out the low possibility (less than 20%) of a shower or weak storm passing along and south of the Missouri River this afternoon, evening, and potentially into the overnight hours. Should this occur, the chance for a severe storm is low. Surface ridging will begin to slide into the forecast area tonight, resulting in light and variable winds with lows falling to the upper 50s to low 60s. Patchy fog is again on the table but with drier air in place, think that any fog that does develop will once again be tied to a few river valley's. Saturday begins the weekend on the quiet side as high pressure pushes through the Northern Plains. High temperatures will be a bit cooler in the upper 70s to low to mid 80s, with a continuation of light northerly winds. This will make for a wonderful Saturday, perfect for outdoor activities! Rain chances will increase late Saturday night through Sunday as a weak shortwave trough rounds the top of a building upper level ridge. This will result in increasing chances for rain across the area for the day on Sunday. Cloud cover with the associated chances for rain will keep high temperatures a bit cooler in the upper 70s to low 80s. While some showers are possible during the morning timeframe, the highest chances for rain will come Sunday evening and night as the main shortwave pushes through the area. The ensembles show a broad 40-70% chance for rainfall totals to exceed a tenth of an inch. Soundings show some elevated instability in place so thunderstorms are possible, though severe storms are not expected at this time due to weak shear profiles. With non-severe storms on the table, rainfall amounts could be locally higher depending on how storms track. An active pattern continues aloft for next week. Medium range guidance shows shortwave troughs continuing to push through the Northern Plains within the northwest flow regime. This will lead to chances for rain almost every day next week. However, the ensembles show a large variance in rainfall probabilities due to the differences in these upper level features. Latest machine learning (ML) guidance does show low probabilities (5-15%) for severe weather throughout the week. Details for severe weather remains uncertain so continue to check the forecast for the most up to date information. Aside from rain and storm chances, high temperatures look to remain in the upper 70s and 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Patchy light fog is possible tonight mainly in river valleys and other low lying areas, though widespread issues are not expected. The only TAF site that appears to at least have a chance of light fog is KHON, but even then we're looking at a less than 15% chance of development there. Quiet conditions are expected through the period outside of a rogue thunderstorm south of the Missouri River through sunrise today. Light and variable winds are expected through daybreak. Then winds will be mainly out of the north-northeast around 5-10 kts through the day today, but will start turning more easterly into the later evening hours. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JH DISCUSSION...Meyers AVIATION...Samet  092 FXUS65 KABQ 220922 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 322 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 152 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue today and Saturday mainly along and west of the central mountain chain with a risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, and ponding of water on roads. - Smoke from the Frijoles Fire will continue to impact air quality in the vicinity of the fire this week. - Moderate-to-high heat risk will impact much of central and eastern New Mexico this weekend through the middle of next week with record and near-record high temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 152 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A 598 DAM high pressure center will move over eastern NM today causing high temperatures to climb a few to 5 degrees there from Friday's readings. The upper high will remain centered over eastern NM on Sunday. Readings today and Sunday will vary around 5-12 degrees above 1991-2020 averages with numerous near-record high temperatures, and even a few record highs in the east. With this forecast package, will issue a Heat Advisory for the Tucumcari and Roswell areas this afternoon and early evening. High clouds moving over Tucumcari at this time shakes confidence there some, but figure the high pressure center will suppress those as it moves overhead enabling temps to reach 105 F across at least parts of Quay and Chaves Counties. Meanwhile, humidities will trend downward some in most locations today and Sunday. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will favor western and northern areas both days, and high res models suggest there will probably also be a few cells over central areas today. With the decreasing humidities locally heavy rainfall will be less of a concern today, then even less-so Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 152 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Models generally depict the center of high pressure aloft shifting over southeast NM Monday, westward over southwest NM Tuesday and Wednesday, then a little farther west over the southwest NM border on Thursday and Friday. This will enable record and near-record high temperatures to continue each afternoon with the most widespread record high temperatures on Monday. Hazardous heat looks to return to the Roswell area again on Monday, which should make the third day in a row with a high temperature of 105 F. A series of backdoor fronts will increase Gulf moisture over eastern areas each day during the first half of the work week, while western humidities continue to trend lower with each day. The favored location for showers and thunderstorms will begin to shift over and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains Monday and Tuesday, along and east of the northern and central mountains Wednesday, then along and east of the central mountain chain on Thursday. The risk of locally heavy rainfall will mainly be over eastern areas Tuesday through Thursday, where PWATs will climb over 1 inch. With northwest flow aloft over eastern areas, there will probably be a few strong-to-severe storms each afternoon and evening. At this time, shear and instability look most elevated on Tuesday and Wednesday, when the greatest coverage of severe storms is expected. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will favor the northern and western mountains Saturday afternoon and evening, with isolated activity elsewhere. A few of the stronger cells will be capable of producing localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 45 KT. Storm motion will be slow and variable. Record and near- record high temperatures as much as 13 degrees above 1991-2020 averages will make density altitude an important concern for aviation operations near complex terrain. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 152 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Critically low minimum humidities will be pretty widespread over eastern areas today and Sunday. Sub-15 percent humidities will then increase in coverage with each day over central and western areas during the work week, while decreasing in coverage over eastern areas with the arrival of Gulf moisture. With decreasing size of wetting footprints west of the Rio Grande during the work week, there will be an increasing threat of new fire starts as spotty showers and storms return mainly to the mountains each afternoon and temperatures reach near-record readings. Otherwise, the main fire weather concern will be gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflow, which will decrease in coverage with each day through Monday, then increase again with each day across the east starting Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 96 65 94 64 / 5 10 5 0 Dulce........................... 92 51 90 51 / 20 30 20 5 Cuba............................ 89 59 88 59 / 20 20 5 10 Gallup.......................... 89 57 90 56 / 30 30 30 10 El Morro........................ 85 56 86 55 / 60 30 40 10 Grants.......................... 89 58 89 58 / 50 20 30 10 Quemado......................... 86 58 87 58 / 60 10 40 5 Magdalena....................... 88 63 89 64 / 30 10 20 5 Datil........................... 84 58 85 58 / 50 10 30 10 Reserve......................... 92 57 93 58 / 40 10 20 5 Glenwood........................ 97 63 98 63 / 20 20 10 10 Chama........................... 85 53 84 52 / 20 20 30 5 Los Alamos...................... 89 63 87 63 / 20 20 40 30 Pecos........................... 89 59 89 59 / 20 20 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 87 57 86 56 / 20 20 50 30 Red River....................... 78 49 76 48 / 30 20 40 20 Angel Fire...................... 84 43 82 43 / 30 20 30 10 Taos............................ 91 57 90 55 / 20 20 40 20 Mora............................ 87 55 87 55 / 20 20 20 5 Espanola........................ 96 63 94 62 / 10 20 30 20 Santa Fe........................ 90 63 89 63 / 20 20 0 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 93 61 92 61 / 20 20 0 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 94 69 96 69 / 20 20 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 95 68 96 68 / 20 20 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 98 66 98 67 / 10 10 0 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 97 69 96 69 / 20 20 0 10 Belen........................... 98 65 98 65 / 20 10 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 97 68 98 67 / 20 20 0 10 Bosque Farms.................... 98 64 98 65 / 10 10 0 5 Corrales........................ 98 68 98 68 / 20 20 0 10 Los Lunas....................... 97 65 98 66 / 10 10 0 5 Placitas........................ 93 66 94 67 / 20 20 0 10 Rio Rancho...................... 97 68 97 68 / 20 20 0 10 Socorro......................... 99 69 100 70 / 20 10 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 89 62 90 63 / 20 20 0 10 Tijeras......................... 90 63 91 64 / 20 20 0 5 Edgewood........................ 91 59 92 59 / 20 20 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 93 57 94 57 / 20 20 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 89 61 90 61 / 20 20 0 5 Mountainair..................... 91 60 92 60 / 20 20 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 90 61 91 61 / 10 10 0 0 Carrizozo.......................93 66 94 67 / 10 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 85 59 87 61 / 20 10 5 0 Capulin......................... 92 59 90 58 / 10 10 30 30 Raton........................... 95 57 93 55 / 10 10 40 30 Springer........................ 98 58 96 56 / 10 20 20 30 Las Vegas....................... 90 58 91 57 / 10 20 10 20 Clayton......................... 99 67 98 66 / 10 10 10 30 Roy............................. 96 63 95 61 / 10 10 10 20 Conchas......................... 104 69 104 69 / 20 10 0 20 Santa Rosa...................... 100 66 99 66 / 20 20 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 105 70 105 70 / 20 20 0 0 Clovis.......................... 101 69 102 70 / 20 20 0 0 Portales........................ 102 70 102 72 / 20 20 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 103 69 103 69 / 20 20 0 0 Roswell......................... 105 70 105 71 / 10 10 0 0 Picacho......................... 98 65 99 66 / 10 10 0 0 Elk............................. 94 62 95 62 / 10 10 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ234-238. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...44  208 FXUS66 KMFR 220927 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 227 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A dry cold front will pass through the area today, with increased winds across the region, especially east of the Cascades, where areas of blowing dust are possible. * Marine stratus and/or fog will persist along the coast today into tonight, with some light drizzle possible along and west of the coastal mountains. * A Red Flag Warning is in effect for areas east of the Cascades this afternoon and evening due to gusty winds and low humidity. * Winds ease on Sunday, with a generally unimpactful pattern expected for next week. && .DISCUSSION...The closed low that has lingered offshore for the past few days will push northeast today, passing onshore north of the mouth of the Columbia River by late this afternoon, while an associated dry cold front will pass through the region as well. This will result in daytime highs of up to 5 degrees cooler than yesterday, and much closer to normal for this time of year. Gusty winds are expected today as the front passes. Model guidance shows 700 mb winds, a good proxy for maximum gusts east of the Cascades, will peak at about 40 mph ahead of the front early this afternoon, then diminish through the evening. To the west of the Cascades, particularly in the Rogue and Shasta valleys, gusty northwest winds will peak this afternoon behind the front, gusting to around 20 mph. These winds, along with low daytime humidity, will result in heightened fire weather concerns this afternoon and evening for areas east of the Cascades. A Red Flag Warning is in place for these areas, with details available in the fire discussion below, and at PDXRFWMFR. The frontal passage will be a dry one, for the most part, but some drizzle or very light rain is possible along the coast and in the coastal ranges as onshore flow keeps the marine layer well entrenched there, and upslope flow enhances along the western slopes of the coastal ranges. The trough opens up and rejoins the main belt of Westerlies as it exits the area Sunday into Monday, allowing the Four-Corners ridge to retrograde back to the west. The northwestern periphery of this ridge will nudge in overhead Monday into Tuesday, allowing temperatures to rise about 5 to 10 degrees, producing warmer than normal late August highs. There is a potential, although slight, that increased moisture entering the area within the southwest flow aloft could interact with a weak impulse, could produce an isolated shower or thunderstorm or two over far eastern Modoc and southeastern Lake counties, but much will depend on how far the ridge actually nudges into the region, and if the timing is just right. The warming of MOnday and Tuesday will be shortlived, however, as another trough digs southward offshore of British Columbia, arriving off the coast of the Pacific Northwest by midweek. The trough will push the ridge to the east, bringing temperatures back to more seasonal levels for the remainder of the week. Minor disturbances in the persistent southwest upper-level flow next week may result in breezy to gusty afternoon winds at times, especially if another dry front or two pass through the area. Long term ensemble guidance shows little hope for measurable precipitation through the rest of the month, and only a very small chance for the first week of September. && .AVIATION...22/12Z TAFs...IFR in marine stratus or fog will persist through tonight along the coast and over the marine waters, with areas of LIFR and drizzle possible along and west of the coastal ranges this morning, and again tonight into Sunday morning. Inland, VFR conditions will prevail. Gusty winds will return this afternoon and evening with the passage of a mostly dry cold front. Southwest winds gusting between 20 and 40 kt are likely east of the Cascades this afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 30 kt in the Shasta and Rogue valleys. Winds will ease after sunset. && .MARINE...Updated 130 AM PDT Saturday, August 22, 2026...South winds are expected today as a weak front passes through the coastal waters, then winds will shift to the north and increase Sunday morning as a thermal trough develops along the coast. Gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas will persist through Monday morning. The main belt of stronger winds will push into the offshore waters Monday afternoon and evening, with a southerly surge of winds and fog possible along the inner waters Monday night into Tuesday. Generally light winds and calm seas are then expected through much of next week with low pressure persisting over the northeastern Pacific. && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated 130 AM PDT Saturday, August 22, 2026...An upper level trough and associated dry cold front will pass through the region today, bringing a period of increased winds and critical fire weather conditions. Model guidance shows 700 mb winds, a good proxy for maximum gusts east of the Cascades, will peak at about 40 mph ahead of the front early this afternoon, then diminish through the evening. To the west of the Cascades, particularly in the Rogue and Shasta valleys, gusty northwest winds will peak this afternoon behind the front, gusting to around 20 mph. The deciding factor for potential critical fire weather today will hinge on humidity. Minimum RH west of the Cascades will be too high, so even though winds will be gusty and may approach critical values, conditions should remain below levels of concern. East of the Cascades, however, daytime minimum humidity will trend lower today than yesterday, dropping into the teens or even single digit percentages. Thus, another day of critical fire weather conditions is expected there. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for areas east of the Cascades this afternoon, for FWZs 284/285/624/625. More typical summer conditions return Sunday and persist into early next week. There are some signals for thunderstorm chances across far eastern 285/625, namely the Warner and Hart mountains, on Monday, but much will depend on how far west the Four Corners High retrogrades behind this trough passage. Otherwise, another trough drops southward from the Gulf of Alaska and lingers off the BC coast through early next week. There will likely be additional shortwaves/troughs to swing through the region early next week, bringing periods of enhanced winds. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ624-625. CA...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ284-285. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ370-376. && $$  320 FXUS61 KRLX 220930 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 530 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update. The forecast remains on track with little to no significant changes made at this time. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cold frontal passage today brings additional shower and thunderstorm activity with some storms strong to severe possible. The main threats are damaging wind, hail and isolated flash flooding. 2) A big break from unsettled weather then is expected from Sunday through midweek. More diurnally driven activity expected from then and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Today, shower and thunderstorm activity is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours under a broad and amplified trough with the parent low pressure system traversing across the Great Lakes. This feature will have activity ahead of its cold frontal boundary with some of the storms having the potential to become strong to severe. Modest instability and shear will support this and SPC has us in mainly a slight threat for severe thunderstorms across the entire area. The main threats will be damaging wind although hail cannot be ruled out along with isolated flash flooding possible. PWATs are not nearly as impressive as yesterday, however they do approach the 1.3 to 1.5 mark along with very high DCAPE around 1000 J/kg and low level dry air to allow for downburst and heavy downpours which would promote possible flooding issues if repeatedly hit by heavy thunderstorm activity. One hour flash flood guidance is low across the board so any of these storms that produce more than guidance is likely to cause an issue if repeated hit or train over the same area, especially across low lying and flood prone areas. Models have come together on frontal passage taking place tonight with thunderstorm activity possible into the overnight however the severe threat will have diminished by then. The Hi-res and CAM models have scattered activity during the afternoon and evening hours. The HRRR is most aggressive as well as the other CAMs that would support the slight risk for severe thunderstorms or at least scattered thunderstorms that have the potential to be strong to severe. WPC had us in a marginal threat for excessive rainfall until this morning although have taken us out of the risk on the latest update. Areas who are most susceptible to flooding issues are the aforementioned low lying and flood prone areas as well as areas who have had significant flooding lately and who's flash flood guidance is lower than the average across the area which is below about 1.5 inches per hour. The aspect we have going for us is that steering flow will be supported by decent upper level dynamics and will allow for storms to be moving relatively at a good pace. KEY MESSAGE 2... As cold frontal passage takes place tonight northwesterly flow under a broad upper level trough will induce dry air into the area lowering dewpoints into the 60s during the daytime and 50s at nighttime over the next several days. Moisture starved and under surface high pressure building in we can expect a dry spell basically through midweek although some lingering showers in the northeast mountains will be possible from Sunday into Monday morning, but the chances will be low. Thereafter, a low pressure system is expected to traverse the region across the Great Lakes and promote unsettled weather on Thursday. After that, diurnally driven activity will be possible going into the weekend under numerous short waves forcast to traverse the area, therefore the dry spell will come to an end by late Wednesday. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Outside the valley fog VFR conditions will prevail after 13Z except for tonight when lower CIGs takeover due to post frontal stratus and/or fog reducing VIS. Some shower activity is anticipated this afternoon along with possible thunderstorms, however no restrictions are expected unless a site is directly hit. Winds will be out of the southwest and light except may increase some for the afternoon and change out of the west as frontal passage takes place tonight. Stronger to severe storms are possible today which can increase gusty winds to damaging wind gusts if a site is hit directly. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions from fog and low stratus may vary this morning. Thunderstorm and shower timing may vary from TAFs. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 08/22/26 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M L H M L M M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L M M M M M L H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M L L L L M M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M L L H M H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions possible in low stratus and fog Sunday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JZ AVIATION...JZ  353 FXUS66 KPQR 220930 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 230 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure moving over the area will send a weak cold front through the area today. Expect near average temperatures today and tomorrow. Chance for light rain shower along the coast, coast range and north of the WA/OR border. Ridging builds back into the area early next week, increasing temperatures back into the mid to upper 80s across the interior lowlands. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Friday...An upper level trough will continue to progress northeast today, sending a weak cold front through the area early Saturday. This will support temperatures near or slightly below average both today and Sunday in the upper 70s to low 80s across the interior lowlands. Surface pressure gradients tighten as the cold front moves through, supporting relatively gusty winds up to 20 mph inland and up to 25 mph along the coast. Strongest winds expected through the western Columbia River Gorge where gusts around 30 mph are expected with a 30-40% chance for isolated gusts around 35 mph Saturday afternoon. There is also a chance for light showers this evening and overnight as the trough axis passes overhead. Best chances for any precipitation will be along the coast and coast range and along and north of the WA/OR border. Most likely timing is between 5 PM Saturday through 5 AM Sunday. Zonal flow aloft develops Sunday as the upper level trough continues to trek northeast away from the region. Looking ahead into early next week, ensemble clusters favor ridging over the central CONUS and the PacNW. Warmer temperature are expected to return for Monday and Tuesday. Model spread for high temperatures between the 10th- 90th percentiles range from the low 80s to low 90s for the interior lowlands. Clusters favor another trough influencing the region by the middle of the week but exact timing and upper level pattern are uncertain but onshore flow and seasonable or below average temperatures would be favored. Currently, the 10th-90th percentiles range from the low 70s to low 80s. There is also no clear signal for any precipitation associated with the mid week trough. approximately 20-30% of members show very light rain possible during the Thursday- Friday timeframe but nothing significant at this time. -19 && .AVIATION...Through 12z Sunday...An upper-level low tracking to the north offshore will bring periods of vis/cig restrictions to area terminals throughout the period. Along the coast, widespread low stratus coverage will bring persistent IFR/low-end MVFR cigs at 500-1500 ft. Highest confidence in IFR cigs to the south at KONP (70-80% chance) while MVFR conditions are more likely at KAST. Periods of MVFR vis are likely overnight at coastal terminals. Cigs will tend to lift to 1.5-2.5 kft after 15-18z Sat while south-southwesterly winds increase to 12-16 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt through the afternoon. Cigs look to trend downward again late this afternoon and into the evening. VFR conditions inland with increasing chances for MVFR conditions through 18z. Chances for MVFR cigs are 40-60%, with the highest confidence in the southern Willamette Valley (KEUG) where MVFR CIGs are already being reported. Chances are lower in the central Willamette Valley and Portland area. South to southwest winds will build to 6-12 kt with gusts 15-18 kt during the afternoon. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions favored but low clouds are starting to develop around the metro. Chances for MVFR cigs are 30-50% through 18z. As low clouds mix out, VFR conditions are again highly favored after 18z Sat. South to southwest winds of 3-5 kt overnight will build to 8-10 kt by Saturday afternoon. -19/36 && .MARINE...South winds continue today as a low pressure system moves over the northeast Pacific. A cold front moving through later today is expected to bring maximum wind gusts to exceeding 21 kt to the inner waters, including the Columbia River Bar. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the inner waters from 5 AM to 5 PM Saturday and for the Columbia River Bar from 11 AM to 5 PM today. For the outer waters, chances are 20-50% with the highest values of that range between 10 and 30 NM. High pressure and northerly winds return by Sunday, with a 40-70% chance for northerly wind gusts to exceed 21 kts in the evening and continuing into Monday. Seas of 4-6 ft persist through the period. -19/12 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ251>253. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  484 FXUS63 KJKL 220932 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 532 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another cold front will bring a possibility of showers and thunderstorms to the area today. - Some storms on Saturday afternoon and evening could produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts and even some hail. - Noticeably cooler and less humid air will then arrive to start the new week, with mainly dry weather. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 510 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 Early this morning a closed upper level low was located in the vicinity of the southwestern portions of Lake Huron with an upper trough extending south and southeast across the Great Lakes to the OH valley as well as the TN Valley and Southern Appalachians/Southeast Conus. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge was centered in the Four Corners region vicinity while an upper low was off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. An initial shortwave was east of the Appalachians while a second was moving across the Central Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley region with yet a third shortwave upstream from the western Great Lakes into parts of the Upper MS Valley. At the surface, a quasi stationary front was well and east of eastern KY from the Carolinas to the Gulf coast states to the Southern Plains. A rather weak ridge of sfc high pressure was located from the Ozarks vicinity into the Lower OH Valley in between this baroclinic zone to the south and a cold front extending from a sfc low in the UP of MI/Lake Superior to the mid MS Valley to Central Plains. Clear skies, lingering low level moisture with mid to upper 60s dewpoints, and light winds associated with the sfc ridging has allowed rather extensive fog formation overnight and this has become dense in several locations even outside of the typical deeper valleys as of 5 AM EDT. An SPS has been issued for this through 930 AM EDT. Today and tonight, the shortwave currently working across the Lower OH Valley region should cross the area through midday to early afternoon with mainly some passing clouds for eastern KY. However, the shortwave further upstream will move into the Central Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley during the afternoon to early evening. This will be preceded by the upstream cold front sweeping across western and central sections of the Commonwealth as the sfc low moves to the Lake Huron/Ontario vicinity. Once fog lifts and dissipates within about 3 hours of sunrise, solar insolation should result in highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s across eastern KY, with 70s above 2500 feet. Southwest flow ahead of the front should keep mixed dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s on average. Cooling aloft from the approaching shortwave and daytime heating should yield moderate instability 1500 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE with roughly 2000 to 3000 J/kg MUCAPE per 06Z RAP with at least 20 to 25KT of bulk shear. Unidirectional shear could support some hail up to around quarter size though mid level lapse rates of 6C/km or less should be a limiting factor. Strong to locally damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard from isolated to scattered convection that may organize into a couple of clusters or line segments. Several recent HRRR runs have a few wind gusts as high as 40 to 50KT the JKL CWA vicinity with late afternoon to early evening convection. SPC has placed most of the area in a Slight Risk for this and this has been highlighted in the HWO and will also be highlighted in social media and weatherstory posts. The shortwave shifts east of the area by late in the evening with the cold front moving across the Appalachians and should result in showers diminishing in all locations by midnight. Fog formation should again occur, with valleys and locations that pick up more substantial rainfall over the next 18 hours most favored for potentially dense areas. A sfc ridge of high pressure extending from Manitoba and Ontario to the mid MS Valley during the evening will begin to build into the area late tonight. This will be followed by a gradual trend in 500 mb heights on Sunday as the sfc ridge builds into the Lower OH Valley and parts of the TN Valley as well as Southern Appalachians. This will usher in an airmass more typical of a month from now with 850 mb temperatures trending down a couple of degrees C and dewpoints dropping off about 10 degrees mainly into the mid to upper 50s as PW drops to the 0.65 to 0.95 inch range or 5th to 20th percentile range per 00Z HREF mean. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 400 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 At the start of the long term period, the main story will be pleasant weather more reminiscent of early fall than late August. Upper level troughing will sit over the eastern CONUS, with a relatively vertically stacked low pressure system over Ontario. Meanwhile, to the southwest of the forecast area, upper level ridging will be centered over the Southern High Plains. At the surface, high pressure will sit over the Midwest, with winds generally light and northwesterly across eastern Kentucky; this will work to maintain the cooler and drier postfrontal air mass to begin the week. These light winds and a weak pressure gradient across the area will also allow for a modest ridge valley temperature split overnight Sunday into Monday morning, with typical valley fog formation. MOS guidance could be a bit aggressive with overnight lows for some spots, given lingering moisture, and low 50s for the coldest spots may be overdone. For most or all locations, low temperatures will likely range from the mid 50s in valley locations to the upper 50s or around 60 on the ridgetops. During the day on Monday, the upper level ridge will expand eastward somewhat. Associated height rises across the Ohio Valley should work to keep the forecast area dry, with temperatures rising into the upper 70s to low 80s. Thankfully, continued northwesterly winds will keep dewpoints blissfully low in the mid 50s. Overnight, low temperatures will again fall into the 50s, with a similar modest ridge valley temperature split and another night of river valley fog. On Tuesday, forecast uncertainty increases somewhat. The upper level trough axis will be well east of the area, with eastern Kentucky in a region of northwest flow aloft. Many models depict a shortwave traversing this flow, with fairly substantial spatial and timing differences; at present, the most likely outcome is that, at best, this energy delivers a glancing blow to the forecast area, relegating any rain chances to Tennessee. However, some deterministic model runs do suggest that an isolated shower or storm could be possible in our southwestern counties. Even so, a drier solution currently appears far more likely, and NBM PoPs are accordingly very low. More widespread rain chances may return to the forecast on Wednesday as a surface low originally over Oklahoma translates northeastward. A warm front associated with this low will attempt to lift towards the area; however, a cold front extending from another surface low over the Upper Midwest will loom to the west of the forecast area. Given the expected eastward progression of this cold front, there is significant uncertainty regarding how far north the warm front can progress before it is overtaken. Broadly, Wednesday and Thursday will feature increased moisture and a chance of showers and storms; however, any forecast details will remain dependent on the location, progression, and timing of these boundaries, and forecast uncertainty is very high at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 Fog has formed in the valleys, especially south of KIOB and KSYM and it had begun to spread to near KLOZ as of issuance time. With a deepening nocturnal inversion, this may lift into most or all of the remaining TAF sites, at least briefly, between 08Z to 12Z with MVFR to IFR if not lower reductions at times. Fog should lift and dissipate between 12Z and 14Z and give way to cumulus development by 16Z. A cold front and disturbance will approach during peak heating and result in isolated to scattered convection between about 17Z and 01Z. Some of the storms could contain strong to damaging wind gusts and some gustier winds were included in a PROB30 group for KIOB and KSYM although PROB30 groups for thunder were included for the remaining TAF locations for a few hours between 18Z and 00Z. Winds will be light and variable to begin the period, but become WSW to W at 5 to 10KT between 15Z and 00Z. Winds will trend to the northwest behind the front to end the period and slacken. Strong gusts as previously noted in excess of 30KT are possible with any thunderstorms. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...HEF AVIATION...JP  876 FXUS66 KSGX 220942 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 242 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Monsoonal moisture will decrease this weekend, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for the mountains and lower deserts returning for Monday afternoon. Above average high and low temperatures will continue through next week. Widespread moderate to locally major HeatRisk for the coast, valleys, and mountains except near the beaches and for the higher elevations in the mountains, with major to extreme HeatRisk for the lower deserts. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... A couple of record high minimum temperatures were set yesterday as moisture aloft and high clouds inhibit radiation cooling at night. A few high clouds continue this morning as patchy marine layer low clouds form over the coastal areas. Numerical models remain in good agreement with respect to the synoptic pattern. The dominant high pressure will remain in place over the southwest US with some variations in the location of the center and orientation of the ridge axis, with the ridge becoming less amplified at times as a couple of major shortwave troughs move inland over the Pacific Northwest. As a result, the marine layer will remain shallow with low clouds restricted to the coastal areas and little day-to-day change. Daytime high temperatures will likely remain generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Guidance also indicates that overnight low temperatures will remain above normal. These temperature trends make it more likely that the inland valleys, mountains and high desert will experience moderate HeatRisk through next week with some areas of Major HeatRisk. The lower deserts will likely experience persistent Major HeatRisk through next week. The one caveat is that the changes in position and orientation of the high could result in a reduction of deep-layer moisture aloft. This will certainly reduce the chances for pm showers/tstms in the mtns and deserts but could also allow for improved radiation cooling at night leading to lower overnight temperatures. At this time lower overnight temperatures seems to be a low probability of occurrence. && .AVIATION... 220930Z...Coast...Patchy low clouds based 700-1000 ft MSL will become more widespread, mostly in San Diego Co, through about 12Z this morning, with more intermittent clouds in coastal Orange Co. Clouds scatter out 15-16Z. Low clouds expected to be more patchy and isolated when they form Sat evening, with a 20-30% chance for cigs in coastal San Diego Co after 09Z Sun and lower chances elsewhere. Otherwise...FEW to SCT clouds above 20 kft MSL through the TAF period. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Wednesday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT Monday for Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains- San Diego County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for Coachella Valley- San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...PG AVIATION/MARINE...CSP  159 FXUS66 KPDT 220947 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 247 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag Warnings in effect for abundant lightning threat through this evening for portions of the WA Cascade east slopes and the Northern Blues - Breezy to gusty winds developing today will overlap with low relative humidity across lower elevation locations through this evening. Red Flag Warnings and wind advisories are in effect - Mostly dry conditions through the remainder of the week, with a return of breezy to windy conditions Wednesday && .DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery tonight shows an upper level closed low offshore southern OR, while nighttime satellite and radar imagery show weak, light scattered showers pushing north across southeast WA and northeast OR. Today through Sunday: The upper low offshore southern OR will be the main driver of weather conditions across the PacNW through Sunday night. Today, shower activity with low chances (5-20%) of embedded isolated thunderstorms will be focused along the WA Cascade east slopes, northern Blues, and Wallowa county. The activity will start early this morning along the WA Cascade east slopes, then spread east to the Northern Blues and Wallowa county in the afternoon. Latest CAMs show very weak instability support in the morning (MUCAPE 100-250 J/kg), but by the afternoon show modest instability modest instability (MUCAPE between 250-750 J/kg) developing in the afternoon, with strong low-level lapse rates (9-10 C/km). Thunderstorms through the afternoon will be capable of gusty outflow winds and abundant lightning, which has resulted in the issuance of Red Flag Warnings. The upper low lifting up the coast today will also result in a cross-Cascade pressure gradient to tighten, with winds strengthening as an associated cooler airmass begins to filter into the intermountain PacNW. Breezy winds 15-30mph with gusts 30-45mph will develop across the lower elevations through the afternoon. The strongest winds (sustained winds 25-35mph and gusts 45-50mph) will develop through the Cascade Gaps into western portions of the OR columbia Basin this afternoon, resulting in wind advisories being issued. Confidence is moderate-high (60-85%) that these strong winds will overlap with critically low relative humidities across most of our non- mountain fire weather zones this afternoon. As a result multiple Red Flag Warnings were issued for the wind/low RH threat across the Columbia Basin/Gorge, adjacent foothills/valleys, central OR, and the John Day Basin through this evening. Late Saturday through Sunday morning, the upper low will become an open wave trough as it moves inland across WA and northern OR. A slight chance (15-25%) of light showers will be possible across the WA Cascade crest Sunday morning. The upper trough will exit into Canada around the ID/MT border, leaving behind drier and cooler conditions the remainder of Sunday. Breezy winds (15-25mph with gusts up to 40mph) will redevelop through the Cascade gaps through early Sunday evening, with light winds returning Sunday night. Monday through Friday: Ensemble cluster guidance is in good agreement of upper level ridging building back over the PacNW Monday with dry conditions and a warming trend persisting through Tuesday. By Wednesday, ensemble cluster solutions are in good agreement that an upper trough will lift across the PacNW with a isolated light showers developing along the WA Cascade crest and breezy winds through the Cascade gaps into the Columbia Basin and adjacent valleys/foothills. That said, cluster solutions are in disagreement on passage timing and location of the trough, resulting in low confidence (25-35%) in forecast details. Thursday into Friday, cluster solutions favor a dry southwest flow over the PacNW as broad troughing extends from western Canada into the northeast Pacific. This will keep the region dry overall, with diurnally breezy winds through the Cascade gaps and near normal temperatures. Lawhorn/82 && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...VFR conditions are expected through Saturday. Winds will gust in the 25 to 30 kt range at all sites except ALW and PSC. The stronger winds across the region will hopefully prevent major issues with smoke, though there could still be some local smoke from the regional wildfires. && .FIRE WEATHER...An upper weather system impacting the region today will bring the threat of thunderstorms capable of abundant lightning across WA Cascade crest, northern Blues, and Wallowa county. In most non-mountain zones, breezy winds will overlap with critically low relative humidity this afternoon, resulting in critical fire weather concerns. Multiple Red Flag Warnings are in effect for abundant lightning and for the wind/RH threats. RHs will improve slightly and winds weaken Sunday, though elevated fire weather concerns will remain. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 90 50 83 50 / 10 0 0 0 ALW 93 58 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 96 58 86 53 / 10 0 0 0 YKM 95 58 86 57 / 30 0 0 0 HRI 92 58 85 52 / 10 0 0 0 ELN 87 54 79 52 / 30 0 0 0 RDM 89 44 84 45 / 10 0 0 0 LGD 95 52 86 50 / 10 10 0 0 GCD 95 53 88 52 / 10 0 0 0 DLS 85 60 84 59 / 10 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for WAZ026-522-523. Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ024-521. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM PDT this evening for WAZ690-691. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ692. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening for WAZ693. Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT this evening for WAZ026. Red Flag Warning until noon PDT today for WAZ695. OR...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for ORZ041-044-049-050- 502-503-505>507-509>511. Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ041-044-508-510. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM PDT this evening for ORZ691-696-698-700-703. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ692. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ693. && $$ DISCUSSION...82 AVIATION...77 FIRE WEATHER...82  240 FXUS64 KJAN 220950 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 450 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous heat stress is expected across at western portions of the forecast area again today and over the southwest Sunday. - Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible late this afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 449 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Through Saturday: Although a weak frontal boundary will continue sagging through the CWA today, heat stress will remain the main concern in the short term over the western half of the CWA. In addition, there will also be the potential for isolated strong to severe storms late this afternoon and evening across the north. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis still showed our CWA on the eastern periphery of a large mid level high and just west of the base of a mid level trough that will continue to provide northwest flow aloft through tonight. The drier air in the wake of the weak cold front should limit daytime convection until late this afternoon and to the north. A disturbance within the northwest flow aloft will combine with daytime heating upstream and develop convection that will spread south into our northern zones by this evening. The convection will have the potential for isolated strong to severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Otherwise, temperatures will again top out in the upper 90s to lower 100s and combine with relatively high humidity to result in heat indices between 105-110F in the west where a Heat Advisory will remain in effect. The convection will taper off by midnight but the warm and humid conditions will continue through tonight. /22/ Sunday through next Saturday... A weak frontal boundary from the Mid Tennessee Valley Region will continue to gradually push southwards towards north MS early Sunday morning. As this boundary layer continues to slowly push southwards, the slight uptick of moisture and northwest flow will help focus scattered diurnally driven early morning showers and storms, mainly for areas across portions of north MS, portions of northwest MS, portions of southeast AR, and portions of northeast LA with local PoPs around 20-30%. A few strong storms with wind gusts up to 40 mph cannot be ruled out. Rain chances will start to fizzle out by Sunday afternoon leading to quiet conditions across our CWA through Sunday evening. Regarding the dangerous heat for Sunday, guidance continues to show a NW-SE oriented thermal gradient across the southeast CONUS. This thermal gradient will allow for afternoon highs in the upper 90s to low 100s across our entire forecast area. This combined with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will allow for heat index reading values to peak in the 105-110 degree range with the greatest heat stress over southwest portions of the forecast area. With that in mind, a Heat Advisory will likely be needed for Sunday. If a heat advisory is introduced for Sunday, original thinking is to include all of our northeast LA parishes, portions of south MS and southwest MS, portions of west MS and portions of central MS. Hot and humid conditions will continue across the area heading into the new work week. Aside from the gradual upticks in rain chances, there are still no strong signals for significant rainfall. All global model ensembles continue to point to dry anomalies. Heat index readings will gradually climb back into the 105-110 degree range across much of the area as we get closer to the mid week. Additional heat headlines/advisories will likely be needed as we get closer to the mid week. Given the continued vegetative stress, the forecast area will become more vulnerable to fire danger should wind/RH thresholds bemet. As of now the weather pattern isn't supporting this, but all fire related interests should monitor closely. /CR/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions wl prevail through at least 22Z when another round of TSRA wl start affecting the northern TAF sites and move in vcty of the cntrl TAF sites by the end of the TAF period. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 100 74 98 74 / 0 20 10 30 Meridian 99 73 98 73 / 0 10 10 10 Vicksburg 100 74 98 74 / 0 10 10 10 Hattiesburg 98 74 99 74 / 0 0 10 10 Natchez 101 75 99 75 / 0 0 10 10 Greenville 101 74 97 74 / 20 40 10 40 Greenwood 99 72 96 72 / 10 40 10 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>064- 072. LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ 22/CR/22  450 FXUS64 KOUN 220957 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 457 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 456 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Excessive heat continues through the weekend and into next week. - Isolated to scattered rain/storms are possible most days. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Although perhaps not as strong as last night, there is an area of warm air advection that develops overnight across central sections of Oklahoma up into Kansas. This should result in at least a few showers and perhaps thunderstorms after midnight. Currently most likely area would be near and just east of I-35 corridor. The NAM NEST is the most aggressive, while others have almost nothing, so will lean somewhere is the middle as far as chances late tonight into Saturday morning. Other isolated activity farther west and south appears possible as well. In addition to this, models hint at the potential for another complex of storms moving out of Kansas around 8-10am and then moving south and southeast across much of the eastern half of Oklahoma during the day Saturday, skirting the OKC metro area. Although inconsistencies in the models keep overall confidence rather low. Much like yesterday, this will keep a fairly large area with at least a period of cloud cover and possibly precip through the morning before possibly clearing out in the afternoon, allowing temperatures to climb, just how high is the question. There could be a tight temperature gradient somewhere near or just west of I-35 Saturday afternoon. Some models are redeveloping convection during the afternoon on residual boundaries from morning activity, mainly near and south of I-40. With the very hot surface temperatures and inverted-V type soundings expected by afternoon. A few severe wind gusts will be possible with this activity. This will also make it a difficult forecast with regards to heat headlines, but will lean a little more liberally with the potential and have added several counties farther north and east into the advisory. Still a chance that a some counties may need to be added as things evolve today and a few might even need to be upgraded, but confidence at this point is not there. Will also need to continue to watch fire weather conditions across western and southwestern Oklahoma into north Texas where the heat, low afternoon humidity and stressed vegetation will result in some areas of elevated fire weather. Possible outflow from convection will also be a concern. This outflow could also be a focus for additional afternoon and evening convective development across southern Oklahoma into north Texas. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 After the evening potential storms, the remainder of Saturday night and Sunday look to be dry as upper ridge tries to reassert itself further east across Oklahoma and north Texas. Any residual boundary will likely wash out or quickly lift back northward early Sunday leaving only north central Oklahoma to remain in the 90s Sunday afternoon with the remainder of the area once again climbing into the triple digits with southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas possible above 110 degrees. Winds will be rather light (10-15mph) Sunday, but the extreme heat and low humidity will again create elevated fire weather conditions, especially across western and southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas Sunday afternoon. The upper ridge remains the dominate feature as we go into Monday, meaning very little chance of precip. Additionally the models are showing a surface low that develops in northwest Oklahoma and then drifts east and southeast through the daywith a trailing surface boundary. A lot will depend on the location of this boundary through the day, but along and south of it we will see a pre-frontal torch with higher 850mb temperatures and stronger surface and low level westerly winds. This will heighten the fire weather concerns Monday afternoon in these areas with near critical conditions developing. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 This boundary may linger into Tuesday with slightly cooler temperatures across the northern half of the area, but still baking across the south with temperatures once again approaching 110 degrees. The ridge looks to push off to the southwest a bit as well which allows better northwest flow to develop and slightly cooler temperatures (still above normal). Although a few afternoon showers/storms not out of the question Tuesday afternoon, a better upper shortwave drops southeast out of the High Plains as we go into Tuesday night and Wednesday. This should bring, at least to northwest Oklahoma, a better chance of rain as storms move off the higher terrain and slide southeast into Oklahoma. Scattered activity may continue through the end of the week as the northwest flow regime continues to bring some minor shortwaves overhead. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 456 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across north central and east central Oklahoma this morning, affecting KPNC and KSWO. Additional thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across much of the area. A weak boundary will shift across the area, causing winds to back to the east-southeast across most terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 103 74 102 78 / 20 10 10 0 Hobart OK 108 75 108 80 / 20 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 108 78 109 82 / 30 30 0 0 Gage OK 102 71 104 76 / 10 10 0 10 Ponca City OK 97 71 95 73 / 30 0 10 10 Durant OK 103 76 106 80 / 30 30 10 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ021>023-027-033>039-044>046-050. TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...13