982 FXUS65 KPSR 201700 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1000 AM MST Wed May 20 2026 .UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion && .KEY MESSAGES... - Near normal temperatures will gradually warm through the weekend with lower desert highs reaching near 100 degrees following comfortable morning readings. - Dry conditions will prevail through the weekend with typical afternoon breeziness. - There is a slight chance for a few storms and lightning strikes over eastern Arizona high terrain early next week, however rainfall should be minimal, at best. && .SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/... Latest objective analysis depicts elongated, positively tilted troughing covering the western Conus helping depress midtropospheric heights over the forecast area, and resulting in the recent period of below normal temperatures. Ensemble model output over the next 60 hours strongly argues for the northern portion of the negative height anomalies to propagate into the Upper Midwest, yet with the trough base and marginally lower heights lingering over the forecast area. While H5 heights will be maintained in a near persistence level not far from 576dm, boundary layer thermal profiles will moderate in response to the seasonally increased sfc insolation such that H8 temperatures warm from 18C to 22C through Thursday. As such, forecast confidence is excellent that afternoon highs will rebound very close to the daily normals with extremely narrow ensemble numerical spread. Otherwise, widespread dry weather will continue along the the typical afternoon May breeziness. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... The weak troughing will gradually migrate into the southern plains late in the week as the Conus pattern becomes more progressive allowing low amplitude shortwave ridging to temporarily build into the SW Conus. While notable ensemble uncertainty exists in the northern jet stream structure, particularly over the northeast Pacific, only minimal model spread is evident across the forecast area and confidence is very good that H5 heights in a 582-585dm range will envelop the Southwest. As such, temperatures will warm several more degrees into a slightly above normal range, but certainly nothing particularly unusual for this time of year. As the ridge axis shifts east into New Mexico later in the weekend, deeper southerly flow and intense heating of higher terrain may encourage shallow Gulf surges and import of marginally better moisture profiles heading into next week. Model uncertainty grows markedly next week as deep troughing enters the NW Conus while a very strong subtropical jet punches into northern Mexico, allowing some form of cyclonic flow and shortwave troughing to develop over the forecast area. This type of pattern is not uncommon for mid/late May transitioning season, but fine details in timing, intensity, and moisture availability will determine the extent (if any) of impacts across the region. General pattern recognition suggests the increased jet ascent and cooling aloft will promote deep mountain convection, tapping the marginally increased moisture early next week with the preponderance of ensemble output indicating Monday the most favored day for isolated storms. Given the thermodynamic profiles and historical precedent with similar systems, very little rainfall would be expected with this convection, but rather numerous dry lightning strikes and gusty outflow winds. Should this evolution come to fruition, the greatest concern would be wildfire starts over the back country followed by increasing winds midweek with the passage of stronger troughing through the Great Basin. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1700Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No aviation concerns are expected during the TAF period. Winds will follow light and diurnal trends with periods of variability during directional shifts. Other than a some high cirrus over the eastern portion of the airspace, skies should be mostly clear over the terminals. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation concerns are expected during the next 24 hours. Winds will favor light and diurnal trends with some periods of VRB conditions during directional shifts. Clear skies will be common through the front half of the forecast before FEW-SCT high clouds move in Thursday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Temperatures will gradually warm through early next week, albeit remaining in a slightly above normal category. Dry conditions will prevail with minimum afternoon humidity levels falling into a 5-15% range this week, though a modest increase in moisture will result in these levels increasing closer to 10-20% over the weekend. This moisture increase along with an incoming weather disturbance will lead to a slight chance for afternoon/evening storms and lightning strikes over eastern districts high terrain. Little to no rainfall would be expected with this activity resulting in a heightened threat for new wildfire starts, particularly Monday afternoon. Poor to fair overnight recovery of 20-40% will only improve slightly over the weekend. Typical afternoon spring upslope gustiness of 15-25 mph will be common through the period with the most pronounced gusts over eastern district high terrain and through the lower Colorado River valley. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM...18 AVIATION...RW FIRE WEATHER...18  037 FXUS66 KPDT 201701 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1001 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 .DISCUSSION... A warming pattern will continue into the end of the workweek as an offshore ridge axis amplifies and builds inland, bringing subsidence and benign sensible weather. Forecast high temperatures continue to trend higher through the 70s and 80s by the end of the week with limited HeatRisk of Level 1 which affects the most vulnerable to heat who also have no cooling or hydration. A backdoor surface cold front will be driven southwest across the region Wednesday night through Thursday morning, driven by an associated mid level shortwave just east of the region, flipping winds out of the northeast but having little impact on the warming trend into Thursday afternoon other than muting how warm the afternoon temps jump from the previous day. The day 7, the ensembles hint synoptic pattern developing an upper trough over the PAC NW, leading to cooler and wetter conditions May 26-27. Clusters 1-3 are in reasonable pattern agreement, with cluster 4 showing an alternative scenario and a 5% outlier placing a warm dry ridge over the region. The leadup to this may bring enhanced winds in the gaps areas over the weekend as the westerly winds return with strongest winds with potential for wind advisories over the usual windy spots like Kittitas Valley, Eastern Columbia River Gorge and the the Blue Mountain foothills. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. CIGs will be mostly FEW/SCT 25 kft with light winds below 10 kts except at DLS where winds will be 10-15 kts. 90 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 73 45 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 73 48 76 50 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 78 50 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 79 49 80 51 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 76 48 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 73 44 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 73 39 77 41 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 70 41 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 73 39 75 39 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 77 50 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...71 AVIATION...90  103 FXUS63 KLBF 201702 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1202 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances increase today across southwestern NE into the central Sandhills, with highs from the mid 50s to near 60. - Rain and thunderstorm chances increase Thursday night into Friday, with 60%+ potential for seeing wetting rainfall across much of southwest Nebraska. - Temperatures warm early next week with dry conditions before a deep upper-level low approaches from the west towards mid-week leading to low-confidence in precise extended forecast details. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 205 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A Frost Advisory remains in effect until 7 AM CDT for eastern portions of north central Nebraska, where skies will remain mostly clear, light and variable winds, and low reach 33 to 35 degrees, with areas of frost. An increase in light south winds and increasing cloudiness overnight should limit frost formation to the west. Today, a disturbance currently over central Colorado will lift northeast this morning into the southeast panhandle and southwest, and the central Sandhills this afternoon. This will bring likely rain chances to areas mainly near and south of Highway 2 and mainly cloudy skies, with stratus persisting through much of the day. Warm air advection indicated mainly in the H7 to H6 layer with weak frontogenesis diminishing in the afternoon as the disturbance lifts northeast today. South of Highway 2, HREF probability of a tenth of an inch or more is 60 to 80 percent, with a 60 percent probability of a quarter inch or more portions of southwest Nebraska. Rain is not expected to reach portions of the northeast today. Highs only in the mid 50s southwestern areas, to near 60 northeast. Tonight, skies clear some across the north. Another disturbance will move from eastern CO, across Kansas and far southern Nebraska. Far southwest Nebraska will maintain a slight chance for showers overnight. At this time, looks like temperatures will remain above any frost potential from 35 to around 40. Thursday, the next system will deepen from Montana into the central Rockies. Downstream, moisture will be on the increase from the Southern Plains into western Nebraska as surface low pressure deepens across New Mexico into southern Colorado. Southeast winds will become breezy across the west by afternoon. Highs to range from the mid 60s northern Nebraska, to the upper 50s to lower 60s south. There will be low chances for showers in the morning across the south. A lead disturbance will extend from southeast Wyoming into the Colorado Front Range by late afternoon. This will bring increasing chances for showers and few thunderstorms across the west and south. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 205 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Thursday Night/Friday...by late afternoon, convection should be ongoing along the I-25 corridor from eastern Wyoming down through central Colorado. This occurs as lee troughing draws southeasterly moist flow up to the Front Range. This occurs as upper-level troughing crosses the Great Basin and approaches the Continental Divide. Within a moderately sheared environment, a narrow ribbon of modest instability should support a limited severe threat well to our southwest. As alluded to, this narrow ribbon of greater MUCAPE will not extend far east. That said, persistent advection of theta-e rich air off the surface and weak MUCAPE around 250-500 j/kg should sustain convection ahead of the main upper-level low into southwest Nebraska. Dry air does not appear to be a limiting factor, as persistent southeasterly flow will maintain 7+ g/kg mixing ratios which is near the median value of LBF RAOB climatology for late May. While light showers are favored in the evening hours, the convection originating from I-25 should begin to move into southwest Nebraska near Midnight with further expansion of convection through the early morning Friday. NBM probabilities for rainfall ramp up quickly during this timeframe: with potential for exceeding 0.10" reaching 80%+ Friday morning for much of the southern Sandhills into southwest Nebraska, and nearly 60-80% probabilities for exceeding 0.25" in the same timeframe for the same areas. The increased low- level moisture and ongoing precipitation is expected to hold temperatures in check and Thursday night lows have been boosted across the board as a result. Through early Friday, the main upper- level will cross the Central Rockies and begin to transition from neutral to negative tilt. Precipitation will continue through the day with ample instability to support thunderstorms. With stronger shear in place to the south, the threat for severe weather should favor western Kansas. Afternoon highs may be on the cooler side with values only reaching the upper 50s to low 60s. A trailing surface trough will settle into western Nebraska by later in the day and this along with the passing trough axis will bring a swift end to precipitation west to east across the area though some wrap around moisture from the h5 low may persist across our northern zones. Behind departing precipitation, low temperatures should again fall to the lower 40s with a few locations threatening the upper 30s. Saturday and beyond...heights build across the Central High Plains behind the exiting mid-level disturbance. Ridging will build across the Desert Southwest and cross the Rockies by early next week. This will coincide with warming temperatures as NBM guidance show median temperatures at their warmest values of the forecast period: the middle to upper 80s by Sunday and Monday. This will promote well above normal temperatures with dry conditions for much of the region. The upper pattern becomes fairly convoluted towards the middle of next week as a deep h5 low takes shape over the Pacific Northwest and settles east. Progression of this system is somewhat uncertain, with deterministic solutions varying on timing and placement of this and downstream influencing features. Because of this, confidence in extended forecast details is limited and will likely remain this way until extended guidance begins to hone in on a similar solution. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Skies will remain mainly overcast today and tonight across western and north central Nebraska. Light rain showers are expected across southwestern Nebraska this afternoon, impacting the KLBF terminal through late afternoon. Ceilings may reach 2500 FT AGL this afternoon at the KLBF terminal. VFR conditions are expected through early morning Thursday at the KLBF terminal. MVFR and possibly IFR ceilings are possible Thursday morning across SW Nebraska. For the KVTN terminal: Expect broken to overcast ceilings ranging from 5000 to 8000 FT AGL over the next 24 hours. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...NMJ AVIATION...Buttler  236 FXUS63 KFSD 201705 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1205 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers return this afternoon mainly west of the James River Valley with light accumulations expected. - Cooler conditions continue this week. Another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms is expected from Thursday afternoon through Friday. Severe weather not expected. However, some ensemble guidance suggests up to a 40 percent chance for a half an inch of rain during this time. && .UPDATE... Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Calm winds and mostly clear skies are allowing temperatures to plummet into the mid 30s to lower 40s, with lows still expected to fall into the lower/mid 30s across the area. Freeze Warning for portions of the US Hwy 14 corridor and Frost Advisory elsewhere remain on track. A couple of sites across northwestern IA and southeastern SD have developed fog early this morning, leading to visibility below one mile at times. Expect fog to lift by mid morning. Forecast for the rest of the day remains on track as the next mid level waves moves out of NE. CAMs still show some showers west of the James River later today into tonight, with some weak instability through the saturated layer. Dry sub cloud layer with bases around 5k ft might limit how much reaches the surface, especially with surface high pressure meandering east today. Highs warm into the lower/mid 60s with increasing clouds. This is about 10 degrees below normal for late May. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Cool high pressure settles into the area tonight and will bring a very good chance for temperatures tall to or below 35 for most of the area with temperatures at or below freezing possible north of I- 90. Thus a freeze warning is in place for highway 14 and nearby locations in SD with a frost advisory for the remainder of the area. Isolated pockets of fog will be possible early Wednesday morning but at this time it does not appear as though it will become more widespread. A weak wave will move through the area on Wednesday which could bring a few sprinkles but overall should mainly be an increase in mid level clouds. Otherwise slightly more mild temperatures are expected as southerly flow develops and brings highs back into the 60s for most locations. Another weak wave moves across NE on Thursday and could bring some light showers to the Missouri River corridor into northwest IA. Precipitation amounts will be light as moisture with the system is very limited. A bit stronger and more negatively tilted system will swing through on Friday bringing the next best chance for rainfall. Instability very minor with CAPE values generally 500 J/kg or less. The model soundings do indicate the potential for some efficient rainfall however so maybe some half inch or so amounts will be possible. The latest ensemble output indicating about a 10 to 30 percent chance for more than a half an inch and the latest Nam is indicating a couple of areas with more than a half an inch. Long story short, only minor impacts expected with no severe weather. As this system moves northeast and out of the area a few lingering showers will be possible on Saturday, but warmer temperatures will begin to work into the region. Sunday through the middle of next week will see troughiness to the west and ridging to the east, leaving the area in warmer southerly flow. While there is very little agreement, there should be a couple of weaker waves that could bring showers and thunderstorms to the area, but for now confidence is too low to include in the forecast. Otherwise highs should be in the 80s with lows mainly in the 50s Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1204 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR through the period. A few showers will be possible mainly west of the James River late this afternoon into the evening. A few sprinkles will be possible elsewhere. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...SG DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...08  197 FXUS63 KGLD 201705 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1105 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Occasional shower chances through the rest of the week. - Marginal severe risk Thursday afternoon and evening, primarily in Colorado, but could see that into northwest Kansas through the evening hours. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 255 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Through Mid-Afternoon: Guidance continues to indicate that low- level moisture return assoc/w modest SE to SSE low-level flow will be a slow/gradual affair that's confined to eastern Colorado, mainly western portions of Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties where 850 mb dewpoints around -1 to -3C (this morning) are progged to increase to 2 to 7C during the late afternoon (21-00Z). Mid-level (700-500 mb) warm advection in advance of an upper level wave.. a modest 250-350 mb trough / shear-axis progressing slowly east across the central Rockies.. may foster the development of light showers over portions of the area later this morning, mainly west and north of Goodland between ~12-18Z (6a-12p) when/where mid-level warm advection -may- be strong enough to capitalize on/utilize a very meager amount of elevated instability (50-100 J/kg MUCAPE). Expect broken/overcast cloud cover over most or all of the area and 10 to 20 mph SE winds with highs in the upper 50's to mid 60's. Late Afternoon-Toninght: A modest (1013-1015 mb) lee cyclone will develop in southeast CO this late this afternoon into tonight as the aforementioned upper wave emerges from the Rockies and progresses east across the High Plains. Guidance suggests that increasing low-level moisture will foster marginal diurnal destabilization (~250 J/kg mlcape) along/west of a line from Akron-Limon-Lamar this afternoon, when/where low-level convergence in vicinity of the developing lee cyclone will aid in the development of scattered showers/storms that progress downstream/east toward the CO-KS border by sunset (00-02Z), at which point low-mid level (850-600 mb) warm advection on the E and NE periphery of the developing lee cyclone and modest DPVA attendant the upper wave may assist in the development of additional showers/storms over northwest KS this evening. While recent (06Z 05/20) runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST broadly agree that convection will develop in CO late this aft and progress east across northwest KS this evening and overnight, they vary considerably w/regard to convective coverage.. the NAM NEST being the least-agressive solution. While gusty winds may accompany any storms, severe weather is not anticipated. Expect lows in the lower-mid 40's. -Vincent Thursday will see a somewhat similar scenario, but shifted northward as the northern Rockies upper low strengthens and a stronger shortwave trough moves across eastern Colorado at the time of peak heating. The instability axis will shift further east and the REFS has a corridor of 1000-1500 j/kg from Limon to Fort Morgan along with 35kts of deep layer shear. While the surface-based instability will rapidly weaken after 00Z, MUCAPE of at least 500 j/kg as well as deep layer shear of 40kts are forecast as the showers and thunderstorms move in from Colorado Thursday night. The parameters suggest a marginally severe storm or two will be possible with some pockets of MUCAPE up to 1000 j/kg forecast by the NAM through about 06z before weakening. NBM has rain amounts of up to 1" in eastern Colorado Thursday evening with the stronger storms, then around 0.25-0.50" in the rest of the area overnight with rain and isolated storms. The upper trough axis and associated surface cold front will be slowly moving through the area Friday morning with showers and isolated thunderstorms continuing. This morning activity should limit the afternoon instability, though it is possible some clearing could occur on the western and southern edges of the forecast area. Also will need to see where the front ends up in the afternoon as new convection could develop along it. However, both the GFS and ECMWF currently have the front well to the south, entering Oklahoma, while the NAM is slower and has the front in the southern part of the area. Since this is still a few days out and there will be multiple days of convection which may impact the ultimate timing and location of the front, confidence is low in the details and any potential severe hazards on Friday. Temperatures through the period show little variation with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 110 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Saturday, our region is forecast to be under a weak southwest flow with a weak trough along the Rocky Mountains. Expect mostly sunny skies and a slight warming trend through the beginning of the work week. High temperatures are forecast in the 70s for Saturday and the 80s for Sunday and Monday. Saturday will have a 25-35% chance for showers and thunderstorms across the county warning area (CWA) from weak shortwave passages. After Sunday, we transition to more of a ridge pattern, so expect primarily sunny skies and gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoons for our Colorado counties Sunday and Monday. Warm temperatures continue Tuesday with highs forecast in the 80s. Wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible Tuesday for the western CWA. With relative humidity (RH) values overall trending down and forecast in the low 20s for Tuesday, fire weather potential will need to be monitored through the week. Models are in disagreement on the track and evolution of a surface low off the coast of Baja California that starts to develop late Sunday. If this surface low ends up tracking toward our region, we have potential for an active pattern and severe weather potential late next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1101 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions are currently in place across the area despite mid level clouds and departing rain around MCK. Rain potential is forecast to return this evening and overnight with currently the highest confidence at GLD. Low stratus is forecast to redevelop as well overnight with IFR conditions currently likely for each terminal as well as some Airport Min ceilings for each terminal. Confidence in the airport minimum ceilings is around 20-30% as of now. IFR conditions are forecast to be in place through the end of the period but may end just before the end of the period at MCK. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...Rhoades AVIATION...Trigg  217 FXUS65 KTFX 201705 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1105 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front brings a round of scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms today, mostly over central and north- central Montana. - This activity will transition to general areas of rain and mountain snow as it moves into southwest Montana tonight into Thursday morning. - The precipitation decreases in coverage by Thursday afternoon,with much warmer and drier conditions moving in for most if not all of the holiday weekend. - An approaching cold front will bring breezy to windy conditions and increased shower and thunderstorm activity Monday into Tuesday followed by a period of cooler temperatures, mountain snow, and lower elevation rain. && .UPDATE... /Issued 517 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026/ Early morning update has been published, with the only change being to PoPS which was to increase chances across North Central Montana where radar returns show shower activity increasing. Otherwise the remainder of the forecast remains on track and no other changes were needed. - Moldan && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 517 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: Scattered showers over the plains have continued well into the evening hours despite the loss of diurnal heating. The biggest concern with these showers have been localized gusty winds, with a top wind gust of 50 mph reported near the Big Sandy area. Northwesterly flow aloft will maintain these isolated showers through around 1 or 2 AM. Otherwise, the focus shifts to a trough and attendant cold front that will dive southeastward and initiate a round of scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms over north-central and central MT later this morning and afternoon. Cooler surface temperatures with ML CAPE struggling to reach a couple hundred J/kg will reduce the overall impact from this activity, though isolated instances gusty winds over 40 mph, small hail/graupel, and productive downpours will be present with the stronger cores. The forcing from the trough pushes this activity into southwest MT tonight into Thursday morning, with H700 temperatures falling to around -5C and supporting accumulating snow down to 6000 ft. Snow impacts for Thursday morning look to the be greatest over the higher terrain of Madison and Gallatin counties and will mostly be in the form of cold and wet outdoor conditions. Temperatures will run a few degrees below average on Thursday before weak ridging aloft warms things up heading into the weekend. Westerly flow aloft will be strong enough to mix gusty winds to the surface Sunday and Monday while temperatures warm well into the 70s and 80s. The next trough and cold front will usher in a more unstable southwesterly flow aloft early next week for increased shower and thunderstorm activity and more breezy to windy conditions, windiest over southwest MT. Some storms may become strong to severe depending on the troughs's timing, strength and whether it undergoes shearing or splitting. Note that closed lows such as this one often run a little slower than model guidance. This may result in hotter and drier weather on Monday if the cold front runs late and arrives on Tuesday. There will be at least a period of cooler temperatures and more widespread precipitation/mountain snow on the backside of this system heading towards mid-week, particularly if the main circulation stays close enough to exert a stronger influence over the Northern Rockies. - RCG - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Today's showers and thunderstorms will transition to areas of rain and mountain snow tonight into Thursday morning... Scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms develop over central and north-centrtal MT by the late morning hours. This activity will bring more productive rainfall than those of the last couple of days. Although severe weather is not expected with the cooler temperatures behind the front, there may be localized instances of gusty winds over 40 mph, small hail or graupel, and heavy downpours over a quarter inch with the stronger cores. This activity will expand in coverage and become more stratiform as it slides southward into southwest MT tonight into Thursday morning. H700 temperatures falling to around -4 to -7C combined with lingering convective processes may drop snow levels as low as 5000 ft at times, though accumulating snow looks to primarily be confined to areas above 6000 to 6500 ft and even higher. Snowfall amounts look to be most significant over the northern portions of the Madison/Gallatin ranges where the probabilities for 3 inches of snow or more are currently running above 70% tonight through Thursday morning. Other mountain areas of the southwest, along the Continental Divide, and over the central island ranges will generally see trace amounts up to around an inch or two on the high end. Overall, cold and wet outdoor recreation will be the primary impact with this system. Total rainfall/liquid equivalent amounts will generally range between a tenth to a quarter inch for most lower elevation locations with a sharp decreasing gradient to just a few hundreths or so along the Hi-Line and the drier southwest valleys along and west of I15. Of course rainfall amounts in excess of a half inch will be more common for areas over and near higher terrain. Precipitation diminishes and becomes more scattered in nature by Thursday afternoon. - RCG && .AVIATION... 20/18z TAF Period A cold front working through the region will continue to result in wind shifts to a more northerly direction through the afternoon and evening. Numerous showers will develop across the region this afternoon, with greatest coverage slowly shifting southward into the evening before precipitation becomes more stratiform in nature near sunset. Scattered thunderstorms will be around this afternoon, but overall coverage was too low confidence to warrant mention in TAFs at this time. Precipitation diminishes from north to south late afternoon through the night, but low clouds will remain into Thursday morning. Mountains will become increasingly obscured as low clouds develop through the remainder of the day. -AM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 56 36 60 37 / 90 60 20 0 CTB 54 33 62 37 / 70 20 10 0 HLN 63 36 61 37 / 60 90 20 0 BZN 61 33 56 31 / 30 90 50 0 WYS 56 28 51 23 / 20 90 40 0 DLN 61 33 58 32 / 20 80 30 0 HVR 61 34 65 35 / 50 10 20 0 LWT 56 33 55 33 / 80 60 40 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  315 FXUS66 KOTX 201706 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1006 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - 10-30% chance of pop up showers and isolated thunderstorms northeastern WA and north Idaho Wednesday afternoon. - Conditions trend drier and warmer through the workweek regionwide, with periodic breezy winds for the Cascades and central WA. - 90% chance for a cooling trend into early next week with chances for precipitation and breezy conditions. && .SYNOPSIS... Showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue Wednesday afternoon in northeast Washington and north Idaho. Precipitation chances decrease and afternoon highs trend warmer through the workweek, climbing into the high 70s and 80s by Friday and continuing through the weekend. Breezy winds are expected at times through the Cascade gaps and across the western Columbia Basin. There is high confidence for cooler and unsettled conditions to return early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Sunday: A shortwave in southern Alberta will bring a dry cold front from the north Wednesday evening. There will be a 10- 30% chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms in northeast Washington and north Idaho this afternoon as a 110 kt jet streak dives in from central BC and into north central Washington. Instability will be maximized around the ID/MT border in the late afternoon with around 300-600 J/kg of surface based CAPE. Farther west in northeast Washington, drier boundary layer conditions will lead to higher cloud bases thus less available surface based CAPE. Effective bulk shear will be weak around 15-20 kt so expect single cells. Main risks with these cells will be gusty outflows up to 30 mph, isolated lightning, and small hail around pea size. Farther west this afternoon and early evening, there will be elevated fire weather conditions with dry and breezy north winds 10-15 mph down the Okanogan valley, eastern Waterville Plateau, and northern Basin. Behind this system, the Inland NW will be mild with above normal 500 mb heights through Saturday thanks to high pressure off the coast. Temperatures will climb from the upper 60s to low 80s today to the high 70s to upper 80s by Friday and through the weekend. Sunday through Wednesday: Changes are coming as the ensemble clusters indicate a 90% chance of a trough in the Gulf of Alaska diving south towards the Pacific NW Sunday and Monday. This will bring a cooling trend early next week and chances for rain and high elevation snow. There is still a 3000 ft spread for the 10th to 90th percentile snow levels in the Cascades Monday and Tuesday. The colder solutions have snow levels around 3500-4500 ft and the warmer solutions having snow levels around 6500-7500 ft. This period will need to be monitored for folks headed out into the high backcountry for potential light snow. /db && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: VFR conditions expected through the period. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will spark across eastern Washington and Idaho again this afternon with breezy outflow gusts 20 to 30 knots. Winds will be be breezy from the west at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE this afternoon with gusts 15 to 20 knots with a gradual shift to the north and then the northeast in the later afternoon with a dry front passage from the north. The best chance for showers/t-storms will be between 1300 and 2000. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions the next 24 hours. There is low confidence in any showers or thunderstorms moving over a TAF site, so this was left out of the TAFs for now. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 70 43 71 46 76 48 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 68 41 70 46 74 48 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Pullman 66 40 68 44 73 46 / 20 20 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 71 46 74 48 79 50 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Colville 73 36 75 42 79 44 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 67 40 69 45 74 47 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 67 40 71 45 75 47 / 30 30 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 77 47 78 48 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 77 52 78 54 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 77 46 78 49 82 53 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$  376 FXUS62 KKEY 201708 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL 108 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and humid conditions over the next few days will lead to a moderate risk of heat illness with periods of major risk conditions possible. - Quick moving showers and storms may bring bursts of heavy rainfall, reduced visibility, and gusty winds. - Gentle to moderate easterly breezes will continue for the next several days peaking in the evenings and overnight and decreasing in intensity during the afternoon hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1005 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 The latest 12z KEY upper air sounding depicts ample saturation throughout much of the low level boundary layer overlain with stout northwesterly cyclonic flow as the region remains on the far western periphery of an upper level low in the vicinity of the northwestern Bahamas this morning. Precipitable water values currently in the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range across the region are close to the 75th percentile for the date as a plume of higher atmospheric moisture content gradually slides westward via easterly surface flow. This has supported the continued development of vertically capped shower activity across the island chain this morning, briskly moving along in 10-15 knots of near surface, 850mb flow. Mesoscale models (HRRR, RRFS, etc) depict a maxima in convection across the region for the remainder of this morning before propagating outflow boundaries from existing convection and slightly drier air advecting into the region may bring a lull in activity during the afternoon hours. With the easterly flow overnight and warm sea surface temperatures, shower activity may once again pick up in coverage across the island chain and waters overnight into Thursday morning. High temperatures this afternoon will reside in the mid to upper 80s (with peak heat indices in the low to mid 90s) across the majority of the region with overnight lows tonight forecast to drop into the lower 80s. && .MARINE... Issued at 1005 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Expansive surface high pressure across the region will result in a continuation of much of the same over the local waters, as gentle to moderate easterly wind flow continues. Wind speeds will continue to gradually decline throughout the rest of the week, however daily fluctuations (higher wind speeds in the evenings and overnight, lower wind speeds during the day) will continue. Ample moisture will support the continuation of elevated rain chances for the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 106 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Shower activity is forecast to gradually wane in coverage over the next several hours as activity shifts to the north of the region. Winds will remain out of a breezy easterly/southeasterly direction with shower activity forecast to once again increase overnight into Thursday morning. Gusty winds and reduced cigs are possible at terminals in and around shower activity. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1932, the daily record rainfall of 3.83 inches was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871. On this day in 2024, the daily record rainfall of 7.08" was recorded in Marathon. This also ranks as the wettest day ever recorded in May. Rainfall records for Marathon date back to June 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 81 91 81 / 30 20 20 20 Marathon 86 80 87 80 / 30 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...SH Aviation/Nowcasts....SH Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest  726 FXUS63 KILX 201711 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1211 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and drier weather settles into the region through Thursday, though a few light morning showers remain south of Interstate 72. Daytime high temperatures will stay near 70 degrees. - Widespread rain will move across central Illinois Friday afternoon and evening. While rain is highly likely, total amounts remain uncertain and could range between 0.10 and 0.90 inches. - Temperatures warm into the upper 70s this weekend and continue to climb next week. High confidence exists that afternoon heat in the mid 80s will return by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Scattered showers may persist through late morning for areas near and south of Interstate 72 as a mid-level shortwave trough over SE Missouri tracks northeast along a baggy baroclinic zone. With the primary axis of instability now shifted toward the Ohio River Valley, any resulting precipitation should remain light, with a minimal risk of thunderstorms. Although HREF CAM guidance varies, with some models depicting dry conditions, the mean HREF QPF suggests totals up to one- tenth of an inch near I-72, with up to one-quarter of an inch possible south of a Taylorville-to-Paris line. Otherwise, a cooler and drier trend is taking shape today and Thursday as surface high pressure settles over the Great Lakes region. High temperatures may struggle to reach 70 degrees, while overnight lows drop into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Some forecast models also indicate that a lake breeze from Lake Michigan may penetrate as far inland as the I-74 corridor late this afternoon and again tomorrow, likely resulting in a cooler feel during the evening hours. The period of dry weather will be short-lived. By Friday morning, a series of shortwave impulses is expected to move northward from the lower-Mississippi Valley, preceding a more significant trough moving through the central United States. This shift in the atmospheric pattern will push a surface front into central Illinois around midday Friday. Consequently, widespread showers are anticipated across the forecast area Friday afternoon and evening, driven by isentropic ascent and warm-air advection. While limited instability should prevent severe convective weather, high precipitable water (PWAT) values may lead to high rainfall efficiency. Forecasted rainfall totals remain uncertain; the 100-member LREF global ensemble shows a 25th-75th percentile range of 0.10 to 0.90 inches for our forecast area. While confidence in the occurrence of rain is high, the specific accumulation amounts among model guidance remain highly variable. Though, it is worth noting that this same guidance currently focuses the higher QPF across SE Illinois. As the front shifts northward through the region on Friday, temperatures are expected to surge this weekend, with highs reaching the upper 70s both Saturday and Sunday. The main upper trough axis swinging through the Midwest may trigger additional scattered showers over the weekend. However, following the passage of the initial frontal zone on Friday, mid-level RH profiles appear significantly drier, resulting in substantially lower QPF for Saturday and Sunday. Heading into next week, global deterministic models suggest the development of a Rex block over the Plains. The progression of the associated upper low will ultimately dictate rain and storm potential through early next week. Current indications suggest that areas south of I-72 are best positioned for rainfall as the low portion of the block pivots up the Mississippi Valley while the high-pressure side loiters over the Corn Belt. There is stronger model agreement regarding temperatures, with mid-to- upper 80s heat forecast to return by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 MVFR ceilings may impact KDEC and KCMI for a couple more hours this afternoon before clouds lift as high pressure settles southward over the area. North-northeast winds with speeds between 10-15 kts will continue to veer, becoming easterly by Thursday morning. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...MJA DISCUSSION...MJA AVIATION...NMA  862 FXUS61 KCTP 201713 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 113 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Risk for severe storms over the southern half of Pennsylvania has increased with a Severe Thunderstorm watch in effect until 00Z. * Reiterating bearish trend for max temps Friday and Saturday && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered storms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible over the southern tier of CPA this afternoon/evening 2) Major cooldown to close out the week and start Memorial Day weekend with widespread soaking rainfall over 1 inch Friday and Saturday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered storms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible over the southern tier of CPA this afternoon/evening The surface cold front currently over the northern tier of Pennsylvania will advance south and east across CPA today before stalling out to the south of the MD line tonight into Thursday. Convective initiation is already being observed over southern PA along the MD/PA boarder ahead of the front. Moist and unstable air ahead of the cold front combined with increasing low level convergence will lead to additional thunderstorm development as we move through the afternoon across the southeast 1/2 to 1/3 of the forecast area. The atmosphere is continuing to destablize with CAPE between 1500 and 2000 j/kg over the lower Susquehanna Valley and Seven Mountains. Steep low level laps rates along with sufficient 0-6km shear and previously mentioned instability should support a few stronger storms with potential for severe wind gusts and isolated hail. SPC has upgraded portions of our CWA to a D1 Slight risk over the south, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect until 00Z tonight. HREF/REFS also indicate potential for locally heavy rainfall >1" near the MD line as showers and storms likely persist through the evening into the overnight period across the southern tier of CPA. ----------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Major cooldown to close out the week and start Memorial Day weekend with widespread soaking rainfall over 1 inch Friday and Saturday Relief from the early season heat wave arrives in earnest on Thursday with max temps 20-30 degrees lower vs. Wednesday across the LSV. Strong high pressure slides from the Lower Great Lakes to off the New England coast to close out the week. Model data shows the high channeling southward down the east-side of the Appalachians, setting up a cold air damming (CAD) event heading into Memorial Day weekend. Increasing CAD signal strength enhanced by moderately strong east/southeast low level flow and soaking rainfall has prompted a considerable bearish/lower adjustment to max temps Friday and Saturday. In fact, highs on Saturday are near daily record lows at several locations (mini/max). Guidance may be too optimistic in rebounding temps Sunday into Monday, but opted to keep baseline NBM for now. That said, the trend will be to moderate warmer with steadier rain giving way to more showery conditions for the unofficial start of summer. NBM/WPC QPF continues to show widespread 48hr rainfall totals in the 1-2 inch range Friday-Saturday. The cool/stable air will cap rates with longer duration helping to mitigate flooding risk in most areas. The forecast rainfall is much needed over the far south central/southeastern counties who remain under D1-D2 moderate to severe drought conditions. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The MCS across western PA this evening has largely decayed, with the main flight impacts being brief westerly wind gusts around 20-25 kts & spotty showers for the Central Mountains (primarily KAOO/KUNV) through 07-08Z Wednesday. Ceilings are expected to lower NW-SE as a cold front approaches, with highest confidence in restrictions at KBFD/KJST. Downsloping W/NW winds are expected to limit the extent of ceiling restrictions to MVFR elsewhere, with improvements to VFR after the front passes during the evening. There is high (~70-80%) confidence on SHRA/TSRA reforming during the late morning to early afternoon hours (mainly after 16Z) with increasing coverage into the evening hours. Current SHRA mentions have been included at all terminals based on recent forecast/HREF/GLAMP model guidance with most uncertainty with respect to timing. In terms of TSRA coverage, the highest potential at this time is outlined across SE PA (MDT/LNS) where HREF highlights SBCAPE upwards of around 1000 J/kg, though SBCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg may support TSRA across KJST/KAOO/KUNV/KIPT as well, with PROB30s added to address this possibility. Locally gusty winds are possible as well given low- level lapse rates around 8-9 C/km in the afternoon, though confidence is low regarding the extent and strength of wind gusts. Winds shift northerly behind the frontal passage this evening, with anafrontal rain developing across South/East PA during the evening/overnight hours. Outlook... Thu...Lingering showers across S PA, restrictions possible. Fri...Restrictions likely with rain moving in from south to north, lasting into Fri night. Sat-Sun...Restrictions likely with rain. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl/Bowen KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Bowen DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Bowen AVIATION...Beaty/Teare  791 FXUS63 KGRB 201712 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1212 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost or freeze headlines may be needed tonight as lows fall into the low to mid 30s over the Northwoods. - Below normal temperatures continue throughout the week, warming back up during the Memorial Day weekend. - Dry through at least early Friday with periodic rain chances throughout the Memorial Day weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Early Morning Analysis...Despite surface high pressure nudging into the area from the west early this morning, isolated light rain showers or sprinkles were occurring over north-central WI aided by a 500mb vort max overhead, with mostly cloudy skies occurring elsewhere. The cloud cover will limit any frost development from occurring this morning especially in far north-central WI where temperatures are most favorable. Rain Chances...The surface high pressure is progged to reside over the area today into Friday, keeping dry weather in place for the remainder of the work week. Model guidance is suggesting the next chance for rain arrives Friday night into Saturday, as a southern stream system lifts across IL/IN/MI. This would leave the forecast area in the north/northwest precip shield of this system, minimizing the potential for any thunderstorms. However, the latest guidance is indicating the southern stream system may track further to the south and east, lowering the potential for precip in the area for Friday night into Saturday. Trailing behind this system is an upper-level trough/frontal passage that looks to bring another chance for rain sometime between Saturday night into Sunday, which may include the potential for thunderstorms. There are also signs of a shortwave moving over the area for Memorial Day, which could also bring rain and thunderstorm potential. Despite these features, the Memorial Day holiday weekend does not appear to be a washout, and more along the lines of periodic chances for showers and storms. Temperatures/Frost Potential...Below normal temperatures are expected through Saturday, with today and Thursday being the cooler of the days with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Given the cooler temperatures tonight (lows in the low to mid 30s across the Northwoods and upper 30s to low 40s elsewhere) and high pressure overhead, where clouds clear and winds become calm, anticipate frost development, mainly across the Northwoods. A Frost Advisory will likely be needed. High temps gradually warm into the 60s for Friday and Saturday before rising into the 70s for Sunday, and potentially into the 80s for early next week. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Diurnal cumulus clouds will continue this afternoon with bases of 4-5k ft. These clouds should eventually dissipate this evening with the loss of daytime heating and drier air works its way in from the north. High clouds will stream in on Thursday with bases above 10k ft. Light northerly winds are expected before a lake breeze pushes onshore from Lake Michigan, causing winds to switch to the east late this afternoon and evening, reaching the central Wisconsin TAF sites around 04z Thu. Light east to southeast winds are then expected on Thursday. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kruk AVIATION.......Kurimski  912 FXUS61 KRNK 201715 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 115 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Isolated storms will develop across the mountains by late afternoon today and will persist into the evening. Lesser chances east of the mountains, which will still be under the influence of the ridge, limiting storm chances. Have lowered temperatures across the board on Friday and Saturday given strong wedging signal in short range guidance. An Air Quality Alert has been issued for Caswell, Rockingham, and Stokes Counties in NC through 12AM Thursday due to code orange for ground level ozone. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1: Multiple opportunities for precipitation through the weekend, beginning with a cold front today and Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Multiple opportunities for precipitation through the weekend, beginning with a cold front today and Thursday. A slow moving cold front looks to approach the region from the northwest late today and into Thursday morning as an upper level trough and associated surface low pressure system push east through southern Quebec and Ontario Canada. Ahead of this slow moving cold front, southerly/southwesterly flow is advecting moisture into the region, with PWATs forecast to increase to around 1.00 to 1.5 inches. These PWATs combined with modest surface heating on Thursday will lead to SCBAPE values of 1000-1500 J/Kg by the early afternoon for both today and Thursday. Today, lingering subsidence from high pressure ridging should keep much of the Piedmont free of rain/storms through the evening. By Thursday, bulk shear values look to also be modest at 20-30 knots; which may lead to some multicellular thunderstorm clusters across the region. These clusters may lead to some strong damaging wind gusts and some hail. Currently the biggest unknown with storm development on Thursday is the progression of the backdoor front associated with the developing wedge from high pressure sliding east behind the aforementioned surface low pressure system moving across Quebec and Ontario. If this backdoor front makes too much progress south throughout the day, the severe threat for storms looks to be much more limited than what some CAM guidance is suggesting, with the potential for a reduced severe wind threat, but the potential for some hail to still form in the elevated mixed layer above the cooler airmass associated with the backdoor cold front. Wedging will strengthen on Friday as the surface high pressure over the Great Lakes moves northeast towards the Quebec/Ontario border. Given a more favorable high location and continued showers, temperatures will likely remain on the cooler side of guidance, so have trended Friday daytime highs lower once again today compared to NBM. Repeated rounds of rain will occur throughout the weekend with continued southwest flow advecting moist air north over the wedging high pressure... While this may ruin outdoor holiday weekend plans, it will hopefully bring much needed rainfall to the region at a steady enough rate to provide some agricultural and drought relief to the area. Although repeated rainfall looks to occur into early next week, widespread convectively enhanced rainfall is not looking very likely, therefore flooding potential remains very localized. Over the next week, seven day rainfall totals are expected to range from 1.5 to 3.0 inches of rainfall across the area. Given the convective nature of some of this rainfall, these totals may locally be higher or lower depending on locations of storms developing, and progressing through the area. As was mentioned above, any rainfall would be extremely beneficial to the region with much of this rainfall likely falling over a longer period of time, which would limit the overall flash flood threat given the ongoing drought conditions. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Currently widespread VFR conditions are in place, with clear skies in the east, and some mid level cumulus developing over the mountains. By 20Z or so, will start to see showers and some thunderstorms developing along and west of the Blue Ridge, and continuing into the early nighttime hours, but looks to be scattered in coverage. This activity will wane before 06Z Thursday. Rain and storms could bring periods of reduced visibility and lower ceilings, as well as strong winds. Some patchy dense fog during the overnight and early morning hours in the west, especially in the Greenbrier Valley of WV, so mainly impacting KLWB, possibly KBLF. Skies remain BKN to OVC into Thursday morning, and sub-VFR ceilings will continue for much of the west and then expanding into the Foothills by around 09Z Thursday. KDAN holds out longer from the lower ceilings until after 16Z. Southwest to westerly winds today, becoming light overnight, then turning more northeasterly by Thursday morning. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Rain showers and thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend associated with a stalled front through the region. This will lead to periods of sub- VFR at all terminals each day through the weekend. Note: Bluefield (KBLF) ASOS is currently experiencing a technical outage due to a major power supply failure. Replacement parts have been ordered. ETA of repair is currently unknown. AMD NOT SKED is being appended to its TAF. && .CLIMATE... Record-breaking heat is possible this afternoon. Here are the current records and our current forecast. Wednesday, May 20, 2026 Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Forecast High Roanoke 98 in 1934 70 in 1998 94 Lynchburg 96 in 1941 68 in 1902 94 Danville 97 in 1996 68 in 2018 96 Bluefield 87 in 1996 66 in 1996 83 Blacksburg 90 in 1934 66 in 1893 89 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ004>006. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EB AVIATION...AS CLIMATE...BMG/RCS  928 FXUS63 KSGF 201715 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1215 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm chances (20-50%) across the area through sunrise, dissipating into mid-morning. Residual flooding from previous heavy rainfall persists through today. - Shower and thunderstorm chances (60-90%) on Thursday and Friday. There is a slight risk for excessive rainfall/localized flooding Thursday night through Friday. - Additional rain chances (40-70%) throughout the weekend with a gradual warming trend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 This Morning: A cooler morning to start this Wednesday with temperatures in the lower to middle 50s. Widespread stratiform clouds continue to envelop the area, with patchy areas of drizzle and fog resulting in reduced visibilities. As we progress through the overnight period, the 850mb front sinks through the region in the vicinity of lingering jet dynamics and lift. This will support scattered showers through sunrise, with any thunder chances (< 20%) remaining marginal at best. No severe or flooding are expected with this activity. As we progress into mid to late morning, any lingering showers will dissipate giving way to a cool and cloudy day across the Ozarks. This Afternoon-Tonight: A cooler afternoon across the area with NBM keeping highs in the middle to upper 60s areawide. Light east-northeast winds accompany the cooler temperatures. Residual flooding lingers through today, as heavy rainfall amounts resulted in rises along area waterways. The period of dry time will be short-lived as rain chances slowly increase overnight tonight into Thursday morning as additional mid-level energy ejects out across the central CONUS. Lows fall into the 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Thursday-Friday: Ensemble guidance are in good agreement that shortwave energy translates through southwest flow and overspreads the region on Thursday. Moisture return will gradually tick up through Thursday across the southern half of the area with dewpoints reaching into the lower to middle 60s. Meanwhile, temperatures gradually rebound into Thursday with highs warming into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Widespread shower and thunderstorm chances will be slow to overspread the area until Thursday evening/night, and persist into the overnight/Friday morning. Rain chances remain high (70-90%) through Friday morning, before gradually shifting east with the system's passage on Friday afternoon/evening. The environment remains rather benign in terms of supporting any severe weather, with instability limited across the area. However, any convection that does occur will increase the potential for heavy rainfall. WPC has highlighted the areas along and west of Highway 65 in a Slight (2 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook on Thursday into Friday. This aligns well with our messaging, as the primary concern with this late week system will be localized heavy rainfall and flooding. Soils remain saturated across portions of the area, in particular along and north of Interstate 44. Elevated streamflows are being observed in this area. As more CAMs come into sight, we will work to pin down the area of heaviest rainfall and associated amounts. This Weekend: As we progress into the weekend, a gradual warming trend continues over the area with highs returning to near average in the upper 70s to lower 80s. High temperatures each day this weekend could be impacted by cloud cover and additional rain chances. Confidence is gradually increasing in weekend rain chances (40-70%), though there remains some uncertainties on the exact timing and location of each system. For the time being, we are not expecting all-day washouts. Next Week: An active pattern looks to persist into early next week as progress into late May. Additional rain chances are in the forecast, though confidence is low on the extent of coverage into early next week. Check back for updates. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Extensive area of stratus continues north of a cold front across the area early this afternoon with IFR ceilings remaining in place. There will be some improvement into MVFR and possibly VFR conditions this afternoon into the early evening, but should see ceilings drop down again to around 1500 feet later this evening into the overnight hours. Winds will become light and variable tonight. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Lindenberg  921 FXUS64 KLUB 201715 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1215 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1210 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Overcast and some fog returns Wednesday, with chances for showers and thunderstorms arriving late Wednesday morning. - Brief, heavy rainfall will be common with storms Wednesday, with hail up to quarter size possible. - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue through this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1046 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 01Z upper air analysis depicts a large-scale, positively-tilted trough over the Intermountain West, with an ill-defined vorticity lobe evident on recent water-vapor imagery that was ejecting northeastward over Baja Sur and into northern Mexico. A disheveled and expansive baroclinic leaf is present, as it has been stretched out while rounding the base of the trough is it begins to become absorbed into the right-entrance region to a 250 mb jet streak that was objectively analyzed at 95 kt per the 20/00Z UA charts. Broadly cyclonic flow will be maintained over the CWA throughout the course of the short-term period, with the right-entrance region to the mid- and high-level jet streaks translating eastward and over W TX by Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, a subtle shortwave trough embedded within the larger-scale flow has resulted in thunderstorms far to the south of the CWA, with thick anvil debris advecting poleward over the Rolling Plains and eclipsing the Caprock. Low-level clouds have since mixed out on the Caprock, but with northeasterly flow persisting at 850 mb, low stratus remains dammed over the Rolling Plains per METAR data at CDS and VUF. Occasional breaks in the anvil debris field have also revealed the extent of the stratus deck. Fog is forecast to develop across portions of the Rolling Plains, and perhaps the Caprock, Wednesday morning as the lower boundary-layer nears its saturation point during the predawn hours. At the surface, the cold front that crossed through the CWA earlier this morning has stalled across the southern portion of the Edwards Plateau, and bends northwestward into the TX Big Bend and beyond into the southern Rocky Mountains. A lee cyclone was analyzed near the Sierra del Carmen, with WTM data observing the northern periphery of the low; and the quasi-stationary/slow-moving cold front then branches eastward into the Llano Uplift before bending northward towards central N TX. This front is expected to remain anchored across that corridor for the next 24 hours, which will maintain the upslope/easterly flow across the CWA tonight into Wednesday. However, the western periphery of the stalled front will serve as an impetus for the initiation of clusters of showers and thunderstorms by late Wednesday morning for portions of the CWA. The vorticity lobe analyzed over Baja Sur will emerge over the TX Big Bend and eastern NM near sunrise Wednesday, with the anomaly becoming stretched and elongated as it ejects over the CWA. This will occur in conjuction with the right-entrance region of the 250 mb jet streak translating over W TX, facilitating a net increase in high-level divergence and subtle geopotential height falls atop the stable, post-frontal airmass. Elevated, fast-moving clusters of showers and storms are forecast to develop by late Wednesday morning and into the early afternoon hours as the PV anomaly ejects over the CWA. The subtle geopotential height falls and backing of deep-layer flow aloft towards the southwest will advect the EML observed by the 20/00Z RAOBs from MAF and MMCU over the CWA, with MUCAPE values increasing to 1,000-1,500 J/kg atop the stable and near-saturated boundary-layer. Modest effective shear magnitudes near 30 kt and somewhat elongated hodographs in the mid/upper-levels will yield the potential for weak, mid-level mesocyclones to develop within the elevated storms; and with parcel trajectories rooted above the stable airmass, hail up to quarter size will be the predominant severe-related hazard with storms Wednesday. Brief, heavy rainfall will be common with storms otherwise, although the quick progression of storms will curtail the potential for flash flooding. The dense overcast will restrict diabatic heating, with highs forecast to struggle to breach 70 degrees across most of the CWA, especially as the upslope flow is maintained through most of the day. Storm chances will wane by the evening, with cool and damp conditions expected overnight into Thursday along with the potential for fog. Sincavage && .LONG TERM... (Thursday morning through next Tuesday) Issued at 1046 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Large-scale troughing will persist across the western U.S. Thursday, with a compact, shortwave trough forecast to dig into the Mosquito and Sawatch Ranges. Broadly cyclonic flow will be maintained over the CWA, albeit a dearth in magnitude as it becomes subgeostrophic between the base of the shortwave trough to the north-northwest of the CWA and the quasi-zonal, subtropical jet streak nosing into the Sierra Madre Occidental. Another small-scale, shortwave trough is forecast to eject into western TX Thursday, with the boundary-layer becoming weakly capped as low-level stratus erodes. Temperatures are forecast to be 5-7 degrees warmer than Wednesday, but with minimal MLCINH forecast as warmer theta-e air advects into the CWA as a weak, low-level jet near 25 kt backs towards the southeast by late Thursday afternoon, clusters of storms are forecast to develop and move towards the east-northeast across the CWA Thursday afternoon and evening. Isolated instances of marginally-severe hail will be possible given a slight uptick in effective shear magnitudes to around 35 kt amidst the maintained EML. NBM PoPs have been adjusted accordingly to reflect the best timing. Isolated storm chances are forecast to continue for portions of the Rolling Plains by Friday, with area-wide chances into the weekend. The large-scale troughing is forecast to attenuate and split into lower-amplitude shortwave troughs, with the southern-stream shortwave trough arriving by this weekend. Warmer temperatures will follow, with the best storm chances appearing to be east of the I-27 corridor Friday and into the weekend. Some storms may be strong-to-severe, but mesoscale details remain nebulous with this prognostication. Additional storm chances may arrive early next week, but predictability is limited. Sincavage && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 MVFR ceilings will prevail through the rest of today. IFR ceilings are expected at all three TAF sites around midnight through Thursday morning. MVFR ceilings are expected through late Thursday morning and the afternoon. light to moderate southeasterly winds will prevail through the next 24 hours. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the rest of today and overnight into Thursday. Severe thunderstorm potential, however cannot rule out the development of an isolated severe thunderstorm or two near any terminal. Storm chances are expected to dissipate Thursday afternoon. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...10  079 FXUS63 KDVN 201719 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1219 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - After a cooler than normal second half of the week, rain chances will be on the increase just before the weekend. - A pattern change over the weekend will bring warmer than normal temperatures to the area next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Today: High pressure across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region will bring dry and seasonably cool conditions to the area with highs in the low to mid 60s. Light NE winds are expected through the day mainly under 15 mph. It will be cool again tonight with lows in the low to mid 40s for much of the area. Thursday: As the high pressure system begins to shift more into the eastern Great Lakes region, easterly winds will increase locally (gusting around 20 mph) and act to hold the dry air in place with dewpoints remaining in the 40s. Forecast highs are only a touch warmer in the mid/upper 60s. Due to the dry low- levels, most of the day should be dry with only low chances for spotty light rain/sprinkles across the west (10-15%). Increasing moisture advection aloft at night will result in better chances for rain late (20-50%), especially across the south/southwest outlook area. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Thursday night through Friday night Assessment...high (>80%) confidence of a storm system. Low to medium (20-40%) confidence on rainfall. The second half of the work week will be characterized by cooler than normal temperatures. The global models have a storm system forecast to impact the Midwest late in the week but there are timing differences. Interestingly, most ensemble members of the global models take the main surface low east of the Mississippi which raises questions regarding the overall rainfall potential for the area. Based on the overall large scale picture, the various global models are indicating Friday morning and afternoon as being the most likely time period for any rain to occur. Here the model consensus has a 50-80% chance of rain. Rain would then linger into Friday evening before ending. Overall rainfall amounts will be variable; some locations will see under 0.25 inches of rain while some may see close to a half inch. Sunday through Tuesday Assessment...a certainty (>95%) of warmer than normal temperatures The holiday weekend will be mainly dry although a rogue diurnal shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Starting Sunday the pattern change will be noticeable as temperatures trend above normal and are then expected to remain above normal next week. All models show an upper level ridge building along the east coast which will place the Midwest in southwest flow aloft. Humidity levels will be on the increase with dew points raising initially into the upper 50s and lower 60s; tolerable for all but the most sensitive people. Starting Tuesday, humidity levels will be much more noticeable and uncomfortable as dew points climb into the mid 60s. The increased moisture combined with the very warm temperatures and a passing upper level disturbance is expected to result in mainly diurnal convection Tuesday afternoon and evening. Right now the model consensus has rain chances at 15 to 25 percent. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus will dissipate with sunset winds winds dropping to 10 knots or less. Winds are forecast to become easterly overnight and Thursday as high pressure moves into the upper Midwest. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...08/Uttech AVIATION...08  084 FXUS63 KUNR 201719 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1119 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Cool and unsettled through Friday, warming up after -Good chance of showers Thur into Fri as an upper trough moves through the region && .UPDATE... Issued at 950 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Departing SFC high will support another cool night as clear skies work with light winds and dry air in place. Frost is not expected to be very widespread tonight outside of northeast WY, being mainly confined to low lying areas and valleys. Upper trough will move east across the Rockies Wed, with the lee-side trough pushing into the FA. Increasing LL moisture per SE flow and an impulse to the south will be enough to support a few isolated showers and TS across mainly western SD in the afternoon. Broad brushed 20 pops across most of that area, with slightly higher numbers over the northern Black Hills. Main upper trough will move into the region Thur with the stalled sfc trough running N-S across the FA, INVOF of the SD/WY line. Conditional instability combined with height falls and sufficient moisture will allow for diurnal convection, initiating along the trough and the Black Hills. Convection will likely wane Thur night with additional showers Friday as the upper trough moves over the region and diurnal heating occurs. Adjusted pops accordingly. Otherwise, warmer and drier weather is on track this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 125 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Current upper air models show the upper trough axis east of the forecast area this afternoon, with west northwest flow over the region. 19Z surface analysis depicts high pressure over Wyoming, weak surface trough over central MT. Satellite shows widespread CU across the forecast area, with little vertical extent. Temperatures currently sit in the 40s to mid 50s with light winds predominantly out of the northwest. Brief shortwave ridge settles in Wednesday into Thursday, prompting a slow warming trend with mostly dry conditions. Weak surface trough in MT passes through Wednesday. This forcing may spark some isolated to showers/storms but no significant QPF is expected through the first half of Thursday. As ridge shifts eastward, troughing once again slides across the Rockies and into the northern and central plains. Synoptic forcing will prompt widespread precipitation the latter half of Thursday into Friday. Current NBM probabilities for precip >= 0.25" has a wide swath of 60 to 80 percent over most of western SD, excluding far northwestern SD. Based off the current track of this system, highest QPF amounts are expected in the Black Hills and southwestern SD Precipitation is expected to taper off from west to east later Friday, and upper ridge slowly builds over the weekend. Expect highs to jump into the 70s and 80s by Saturday, and stick around through the forecast period. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday) Issued At 1118 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions expected through most the forecast period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across portions of western SD into south-central SD where transient MVFR conditions are possible. Gusty, erratic winds may be present near thunderstorms that develop. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ UPDATE...JC DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye AVIATION...Schultz  081 FXUS64 KOUN 201719 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1217 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Cool, below normal temperatures today through Thursday. Near normal temperatures will return by the end of the week through early next week. - Shower and storm chances continue Wednesday through early next week. A few strong to severe storms are possible on Friday and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Wednesday) Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Surface high pressure, centered over the north-central Plains, will continue to provide for northeasterly winds today. Isentropic ascent could lead to patchy drizzle/fog and a few showers this morning. As isentropic ascent weakens this afternoon, ceilings will gradually lift and we may see a little sun. With extensive stratus, afternoon temperatures will only peak in the 60's to 70's. Thompson && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A shortwave embedded within southwest flow aloft, coupled with weak upslope flow, will provide for a low chance of showers/storms again this evening across western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Rain chances will increase overnight and spread across central Oklahoma, with high POPs during the day on Thursday due to the approach of the upper wave. Abundant cloud-cover will keep high temperatures below- average on Thursday (upper 60's to mid 70's) with widespread showers and thunderstorms likely. Given anomalously high precipitable water content, which is prog'd to be well above the 90th percentile, efficient/heavy rainfall appears likely during the day on Thursday. Storm total QPF of 1 to 2 inches is forecast for areas along/east of the I-44 corridor. Locally higher amounts (2-4 inches) are possible with thunderstorms, which will bring the risk of flash flooding. CAMS would suggest this risk is initially southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas in the morning and then southeastern Oklahoma by afternoon. By Friday morning, surface winds return to the south and temperatures climb into the upper 70's to mid 80's. A northern stream trough ejects over the central plains on Friday with the H500 jet maxima passing north of our area. A few models (NAM/GFS) suggest the dryline may advance into portions of W/SW Oklahoma on Friday afternoon, but for now, the model consensus keeps the dryline west of the 100th meridian. Despite this, there is a conditional severe storm risk on Friday afternoon/evening over northwest/western Oklahoma - owing mainly to moderate instability, given meager wind speeds aloft and weak forcing. Hail up to the size of golfballs and severe wind gusts are possible if storm development is realized. Shower and storm chances then spread across the rest of Oklahoma on Friday night with signs of a potential MCS propagating across the area overnight. Thompson && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 The upcoming holiday weekend is forecast to be on the cool-side for Oklahoma standards, with highs in the upper 70's to mid-80's. Shower/storm chances increase Saturday afternoon with precipitation likely by Saturday evening in association with a weak upper trough. Moderate to strong instability could lead to strong to severe storm chances late Saturday. However, organized severe storms could be tough to come by given weak shear. Rain chances generally decrease Sunday through Tuesday, with the higher probabilities over southeastern Oklahoma and the return of seasonable temperatures. Thompson && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 MVFR to IFR ceilings will see some modest lifting this afternoon before dipping back into IFR overnight. Chances for showers and storms will start to increase in the pre-dawn hours starting in north Texas and southwest Oklahoma and expanding northeast through the morning. Winds will remain light and generally from the northeast to east. Day && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 56 68 58 78 / 50 100 70 10 Hobart OK 55 70 56 81 / 50 70 50 10 Wichita Falls TX 58 73 58 83 / 50 90 40 10 Gage OK 50 68 53 78 / 50 60 30 40 Ponca City OK 53 69 57 77 / 50 70 90 10 Durant OK 63 74 63 82 / 40 100 90 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...01 SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...14  229 FXUS63 KLOT 201721 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1221 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry but cooler conditions today and Thursday, followed by increasing rain chances Friday. - Intermittent shower/thunderstorm chances for Memorial Day weekend, though much of the period should be dry. - Several periods of moderate to high swim risk conditions possible from today through early next week due to persistent northeast winds over Lake Michigan. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Mainly dry, breezy and cooler weather conditions are expected today through Thursday, in the wake of yesterday's cold frontal passage. Early morning surface analysis shows this front now extends from western Lake Erie to far southern Illinois along the Ohio River. Have noted a few spotty sprinkles as far north as the Pontiac-Rensselaer areas overnight, likely where lingering moist advection was still occurring within the elevated baroclinic zone north of the surface front. These will end prior to sunrise however, as the southern periphery of a mid-level short wave trough passes east of the region. Farther northwest, 1026 mb surface high pressure was centered near Sioux Falls this morning, and is progged to build east-northeast across the upper Great Lakes region by tonight. This will result in our north-northwest winds shifting northeast and becoming breezy by midday/afternoon with gusts near 20 mph (around 25 mph near/downwind of Lake Michigan into northeast IL/northwest IN). Temperatures, after being in the 70s and 80s over the past several days, will be limited to the low-mid 50s along the Lake Michigan shore, and the low-mid 60s well inland beneath partly to mostly cloudy skies. With the breezy northeast winds and building waves on the lake, have issued a Beach Hazard Statement for the Illinois and Indiana shores today into Thursday. Overnight lows tonight may dip to around the 40 degree mark along the IL/WI border, and in the low-mid 40s elsewhere with partly cloudy skies. Thursday will be similar, though with more easterly winds and slightly milder temperatures in the mid-upper 60s well west and south of the lake-cooled areas of northeast IL and far northwest IN. Clouds look to spread in from the west late Thursday/Thursday night, ahead of a mid-level short wave lifting northeast from the southern Plains and the base of a western CONUS upper trough. An associated surface low pressure wave is progged to track into the lower Missouri Valley by late Thursday night, then slowly track northeast across central IL/northern IN Friday into Friday night as the short wave transits the region. This is expected to spread rain/showers across the area during this time, though there remains some guidance/ensemble spread as to the northward extent of the rain shield into our antecedent dry low-level air, though rain chances increase across much of the area by Friday afternoon and evening. Thunder potential looks quite low, with the forecast MUCAPE reservoir forecast to remain largely south of the cwa. Cloud cover, rain and enhanced E-NE surface winds north of the low track will make for another cool day Friday with highs again in the 50s near the lake and low-mid 60s elsewhere. Rain should taper off overnight Friday night as the mid-level and surface waves pass. Medium-range ensembles depict the aforementioned western upper trough tracking slowly across the Midwest through Sunday, eventually shifting east of the region Monday/Tuesday. While this may maintain at least some threat of intermittent showers over the holiday weekend, current guidance suggests that there will likely be many dry daytime hours. A gradual warming trend is also depicted Saturday into Tuesday with daytime temperatures forecast to warm back into the 70s/possibly 80s. Ratzer && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Expansive high pressure passing across the northern Great Lakes will promote persistent winds between NNE and E through the period, with daytime speeds around 15 knots and nighttime speeds up to around 10 knots. A period of SCT/BKN high-end MVFR stratus may filter westward over the terminals Thursday morning before scattering and lifting into a VFR cumulus field. Introduction of TEMPO MVFR ceilings may be required in future forecasts if confidence in higher coverage of ceilings increases. Kluber && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday afternoon for ILZ006- ILZ103-ILZ104. IN...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday morning for INZ001. Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday morning for INZ002. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for the IL nearshore waters. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for the IN nearshore waters. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  318 FXUS61 KCLE 201723 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 123 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Scattered showers will be slower to diminish today, lingering into this afternoon for some areas. Increased northeast winds on Thursday, especially near the lakeshore and in northwest Ohio. Lowered high temperatures across the northeast on Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Below normal temperatures expected today and Thursday. 2) Widespread rain of 1-1.5 inches is expected late Friday into Saturday with additional chances of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. Area rivers will experience some rises and a couple may experience minor flooding. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... At 4 AM a cold front was located across Lake Erie into Northwest Ohio. This front will push south this morning ushering in a dramatically cooler airmass. High temperatures for the day are occurring early this morning with temperatures falling through midday. Temperatures at 850mb will fall by approximately 10C between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon with afternoon values in the upper 50s to low 60s with a cool north wind. For some areas this will be 25-30 degrees lower than yesterday. In addition, skies will be mostly cloudy as moisture continues to stream northeast overhead. A tightly packed frontal boundary in the 925-850mb layer will trail the surface front into this afternoon, prolonging shower activity. Additional showers will generally be light although some elevated instability will remain into the morning and will maintain a slight chance of a thunderstorm across the south. High pressure will strengthen over the Upper Great Lakes tonight into Thursday. Thursday will have a good deal of sun which will help temperatures recover into the 60s. Locations near Lake Erie will be influenced by a brisk northeast wind off the lake, limiting temperatures to the lower 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will build to New England on Friday as a shortwave trough lifts from the Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley. A good deal of moisture advection will spread north into the region as a surface trough moves north to the Ohio Valley by 00Z Sat. Overrunning will lead to a northward expansion of rain through the day on Friday, becoming widespread by evening. There is high confidence in rain on Friday night, becoming focused more across the east on Saturday as the trough continues north across Lake Erie. Rainfall from Friday and Saturday looks to be in the 1-1.5 inch range but adjustments are likely. This rain will lead to rises on rivers and perhaps a couple rivers experiencing minor flooding. Temperatures on Friday are generally expected to be cool in the 60s, but will be impacted by the timing of rain. The above mentioned trough does lift a warm front north into the area on Saturday with southerly flow and decreasing showers later in the day bringing a return of warmer temperatures, mainly across the southern and western portion of the local area. Dryer air looks to move overhead Sunday morning before moisture and instability increase again during the afternoon. Temperatures continue to climb as the warm front lifts north. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/... The trend through the TAF period will be improving conditions as MVFR, and some patchy IFR, ceilings become VFR. Scattered showers continue across terminals though not anticipating any embedded thunderstorms across Northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania terminals. Showers will exit to the southeast tonight allowing for MVFR ceilings to lift to VFR, but remain under 5000 ft. High pressure will build over the region tonight into Thursday allowing for ceilings greater than 5000 ft by Thursday morning. Northerly to northeasterly winds 8-12 knots this afternoon will decrease to 5-10 knots tonight. Expect for northeasterly winds to increase late Thursday morning to 10-15 knots with occasional gusts to 20-25 knots during peak heating. Outlook...Non-VFR expected at times in rain late Friday through Saturday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms with non- VFR conditions possible again on Sunday and Monday. && .MARINE... Winds are quickly turning north-northeast early this morning as a cold front crosses the lake. Winds will briefly increase to around 15kt across the western and central basins this morning, which will briefly build waves to 2-4 feet with those waves being driven towards the shore. Winds briefly lull this afternoon. A stronger pressure gradient is expected Thursday into Friday as high pressure slides north and northeast of Lake Erie. Winds will turn northeast tonight and increase to 15-20kt. Winds will remain northeast and increase further to 20-25kt at times Thursday and Thursday night. Winds gradually turn more easterly and then southeasterly Friday and Friday night, remaining elevated at 15-25kt until late Friday night or early Saturday. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements will be needed for most or all nearshore waters beginning overnight tonight or early Thursday. Will not hoist those with this package but they will be coming today at some point. Looking ahead to the holiday weekend, generally southerly winds may be elevated enough to cause issues for smaller craft on Saturday. Winds will trend lighter for Sunday and Monday and eventually come around to the northwest. It will be unsettled with periods of rain and perhaps some thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday, with a drying trend likely by Monday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...10 AVIATION...13 MARINE...Sullivan  379 FXUS61 KILN 201725 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 125 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers a few thunderstorms will persist into tonight as a cold front moves slowly south of the region. Behind the front, drier conditions and cooler temperatures are expected on Thursday. 2) Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday with the potential for heavy rain. Additional chances for precipitation will continue through the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to lift northeast across the region through this evening along a cold front that will be pushing slowly south of the Ohio River. Some training of storms will be possible across our far southeast and with PWs still in the 1.6 to 1.8 range, this is where the concern for heavier rain and localized flooding will exist into the evening hours. This area has not received as much rain as the rest of our area over the last couple of days though and with 1hr FFG closer to 1.5 inches, have opted to hold off on an FFA attm. Shower activity will gradually taper off from the northwest through the overnight hours but this drying may be slow enough that a few showers linger across our southeast into Thursday morning. Otherwise, a cooler airmass will continue to filter into the area behind the front with highs on Thursday in the mid 60s to lower 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2) A mid level short wave will lift out of the lower Mississippi Valley Thursday night and across the Ohio Valley through the day on Friday as an associated surface low/wave pivots up into the western Great Lakes through Saturday. Ahead of this, a 30-40 knot 850 mb jet will rotate up through our area Friday afternoon/evening. Surface based instabilities look to be fairly marginal at best during this time so this should help limit any severe threat. However, still expect fairly widespread showers and embedded thunderstorm activity to overspread the region through the day on Friday and continue into Friday night. PWs will again bump up into the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range so some localized flooding will be possible again Friday afternoon into Friday night. Broad, moist southwest flow will continue through the remainder of the holiday weekend as we remain situated between some mid level short wave energy moving across the Great Lakes and the northern periphery of a mid level ridge over the southeast CONUS. This will result in occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms into early next. Temperatures will moderate with afternoon highs mostly in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees through the weekend. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Widespread showers and some embedded thunderstorms will continue into this evening as a cold front moves slowly south of the region. Pcpn will gradually taper off from the northwest later this evening and through the overnight hours as the cold front moves off to the south. Fairly widespread IFR cigs will persist into this evening before gradually transitioning from the northwest into MVFR and eventually VFR overnight into Thursday morning. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Friday into Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGL AVIATION...JGL  381 FXUS63 KTOP 201725 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1225 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool temperatures through the workweek give way to a warming and a mainly dry Memorial Day weekend - highs returning to the upper 70s to near 80. - Showers with embedded thunderstorm chances Thursday into Saturday morning likely across two separate periods. More areawide for Thursday into early Friday. Friday night into early Saturday mainly south of I-70. - Another Pacific trough digs into the western CONUS mid to late next week. Could bring another storm system to the Plains by the middle part of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 454 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Surface high pressure holds firm across the central Plains through Wednesday as a modified Canadian air mass maintains cool and dry conditions. With quality return flow yet to develop, highs will struggle to reach the upper 60s as the stable air mass keeps temperatures well below normal for late May. The first precipitation chance comes into Thursday as isentropic ascent develops along the 295-300K surface ahead of a shortwave trough emerging from the Intermountain West. Southerly flow returning through the H850 level supports a deepening moisture profile with precipitable water values near the 75th climatological percentile for this time of year. With a fairly deeply saturated column, generally weaker instability favors efficient stratiform rainfall over organized convection. Peak rainfall rates and best storm chances are expected late Thursday into Friday morning. A secondary window for rain and storm chances sets up Friday night into Saturday morning as the main trough axis lifts out of the Rockies with more focused ascent just northwest of the area. At least NAM soundings currently indicate that modest elevated instability and marginal shear could overlap mainly across east-central areas. Seems worth monitoring though severe weather potential appears limited at this time. Heights rise across the central CONUS through the weekend. Expect mainly dry conditions for much of the weekend through Memorial Day with temperatures climbing back above normal. Memorial Day highs reach into the middle 80s across the area. The next potential storm system arrives mid to late next week as another Pacific trough digs into the western CONUS. Increasing Gulf moisture return and a more dynamic forcing mechanism warrant close attention as the period draws closer, though spread among the ENS, GEFS and GEPS remains wide at this range. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR continues this afternoon and evening. A chance (30-40%) of scattered rain showers is then expected tonight, so have included -SHRA for that most likely timeframe with this update. Timing may have to be tweaked if confidence increases with later issuances. Rain will likely not last long, but lingering MVFR CIGS and possibly some light drizzle will remain possible early Thursday morning. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Drake AVIATION...Teefey  385 FXUS64 KMRX 201725 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 125 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 122 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 - Rain chances increase this afternoon and evening, with continued high rain chances through the first half of next week. - Organized severe storms appear unlikely during this forecast period, but the primary threats with storms each day will be lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and some gusty winds. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 122 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Convection has gotten off to an early start today in an increasingly moist air mass, developing in Middle TN and the Plateau, which is an area of higher surface CAPE values around 1500 J/kg and surface confluence. There is little to no shear to help sustain or organize these storms, so they will mainly be driven by outflow boundaries, terrain, and convergence zones. Expect that coverage will increase in the central and southern TN Valley over the next few hours. The main hazards will be lightning and some locally heavy rainfall that could cause minor flooding issues. Isolated to scattered showers are expected to persist through the night due to the moisture rich environment, the presence of a midlevel shortwave trough, and some upper divergence. A front in the OH Valley region today will move southward and be near our northwest border by Thursday morning. This will act as a focus for convergence and convective development Thursday. PoPs will be categorical across the entire area, with a chance of thunderstorms. Instability and shear will be lacking for any organized severe threat, although some gusty downburts winds and locally heavy rainfall will be possible. A strengthening southerly flow ahead of a low over AR lifts the aforementioned boundary northward on Friday, putting our area into the warm sector in the afternoon. LREF joint probabilities of CAPE > 1000 J/kg and shear > 25 kt are around 30% across the area, and near 40% in our southern sections where clouds may scatter enough to enhance afternoon heating. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out for Friday, but the chance remains low. A deep SW flow persists through the weekend and early next week, with broad troughing over the central US. Disturbances ejecting from this broad trough will bring several rounds of enhanced rain chances through early next week, but the timing of these disturbances remains higly uncertain. Overall, the pattern favors continued high rain chances each day. The primary impacts will be lightning and locally heavy rainfall. QPF through the next 7 days will vary widely across our area, depending on which areas see repeated showers and storms over numerous days. Generally speaking, 1-3" of rain is forecast through the period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 122 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Showers and storms will be near CHA over the next few hours, and may bring TS with MVFR/ vis/cigs. This activity may spread toward TYS later in the evening, and potentially to TRI later in the night. With a moist boundary layer, low clouds at MVFR levels are expected to form and persist into tomorrow morning, but this may be dependent on whether showers pass over the terminals this evening. Confidence of this happening is high at CHA, medium at TYS, and low at TRI. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 66 84 66 / 70 50 80 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 66 83 65 / 50 50 90 70 Oak Ridge, TN 88 64 82 63 / 60 40 90 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 63 81 62 / 30 60 80 60 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$DISCUSSION...DGS AVIATION...DGS  420 FXUS63 KABR 201725 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1225 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Moisture chances increase to 60-70% on Friday. Rain amounts generally between 1/4 to 1/2 inch and a negligible threat for severe storms. - Turning warmer late weekend/early next week, about 10 to 20 degrees above normal with highs in the 80s to near 90. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 18Z TAFs. UPDATE Issued at 839 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 The Freeze/Frost headlines expired back at the top of the hour. Temperatures today, with plenty of sunshine and a developing south breeze, should warm into, at least, the 60s across much of the CWA. The right entrance region of a 100+kts upper jet streak will be lingering over the central/northern plains today. When combined with forecast mid-level lapse rates between 6.5-8C/km this upper forcing feature may be able to generate some isolated/scattered showers/storms up into the Murdo/Pierre area of the CWA this afternoon/early this evening. The most recent HREF and current RAP/HRRR output supports a few showers moving north-northeast into that area. PoPs are already in the forecast to account for this potential. Will probably have to tweak it later on for coverage/timing. UPDATE Issued at 547 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 UPDATE for 12z Aviation discussion && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Not much overall going on for the next several days. This mornings frost while still ongoing is only for this morning and the rest of the forecast is dominated by moderating temperatures and a pair of systems Friday. High pressure moves east today, with return (southerly) flow across the state. The gradient is about 8-12mb across the state, so a breezy (Gusts 20 to 35 mph) pair of days. The first shortwave of note lifts up across the southeast part of the state headed up along the MN/SD state line embedded within southwest flow mid-day Friday. The second wave takes a similar trajectory just slightly to the west Friday night. The short distance between waves means a mainly continuous precipitation mainly east river. Profiles are moist adiabatic/no instability with some shear, so mostly just rain. NBM mean is between 1/4 to 1/3 for the Missouri valley to around 1/2 inch in the Watertown area. The upper trough departs, with zonal flow aloft with increasing heights Sunday/Monday. Thats followed by a deepening trough across the western CONUS, all of which end up pumping warmer air aloft into the region. 850mb temperatures still are a standard deviation above climo, and as such Sun-Tues temperatures are forecast 10 to 20 degrees above normal. NBM dewpoints are also on the rise with broad/weak and sometimes intermittent southerly flow up through the Gulf and across the Plains. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are forecast to continue over the next 24 hours. A couple showers of rain may pass over KPIR terminal airspace this afternoon, briefly reducing visibility to less than VFR. The chances of this happening at KPIR, even though there are currently a couple showers ~50-60 miles away, are pretty slim, so just carrying a late afternoon Prob30 group for this potential. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...10 DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...10  457 FXUS63 KDTX 201726 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 126 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and cool through Friday. - Rain returns by Friday night and continues into Saturday. && .AVIATION... Post-frontal flow veers from north-northwest over MBS to east- northeast at DET/DTW/YIP. Light winds (aob 7 knots) at issuance will increase slightly into the evening hours, with a more uniform northeasterly flow pattern becoming established overnight across the airspace as high pressure expands into Lake Superior. Stripe of high cloud over the southern terminal sites has slowed diurnal mixing, which has afforded lingering periods of MVFR ceilings over DTW/YIP. Continued daytime heating and eventual loss of high cloud influence allows ceilings to climb above 3.0 kft agl over the next couple of hours, while drier air advects into the airspace to decrease coverage. Clearing trend then expected late tonight into Thursday as winds veer to the east for the daytime period. D21/DTW Convection...No thunderstorms are expected through Thursday evening. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for ceilings at or below 5000 feet this afternoon. Low tonight and Thursday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 356 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 DISCUSSION... A surface cold front progressed across the area overnight and a strong marine augmented pneumonia front continues to surge south and west early this morning. An impressive 10 to 25 degree temperature drop has been observed behind this feature. The frontal inversion traps a stratus deck overhead early today, but this shows signs of giving way with time as drier air arrives from the north. Some sunshine looks likely across the north later today but high cloud remains more pervasive across the south. 850mb temps settle in the 1 to 3 C range today, carrying a much cooler day with highs in the lower to mid 60s. North to northeast flow off Lake Huron holds temps near the lakeshore in the 50s. Upper jet streak entrance region overhead gains an increasingly anticyclonic orientation through the day, causing expansive high pressure to spread from the Midwest into the Great Lakes tonight. Another release of dense marine air spreads across the area late this evening and sends temps down into the 40s and dew points into the 30s. Could see some patchy frost Thursday morning in the cooler locales of the Saginaw Valley and Thumb if wind ends up going calm, but expectation is for the persistent northeast gradient and a veil of mid/high cloud to prevent widespread frost development. Light wind maintains a northerly component through much of Thursday, holding temperatures in a similar range compared to today. Strong deep layer stability and mid-level dry air ensure dry conditions through the day and most of Friday. Slightly milder conditions are forecast Thursday night with more cloud cover in the vicinity. Longwave trough over the High Plains helps direct a shortwave from the western Gulf coast toward the Great Lakes late Friday. The attendant surge of moisture brings relatively high confidence in widespread stratiform rain Friday night into Saturday, with a notable shift among the bulk of ensemble guidance toward a later start time - likely after sunset Friday. Placement of steadiest rain will be subject to the eventual track of low pressure and efficiency of warm conveyor moisture advection, but will note 12z LREF grand ensemble probabilities target southeastern portions of the area with a 50% chance to exceed 1 inch by Saturday afternoon. Deep layer southwest flow ensues Saturday as the wave lifts through, with warm advection boosting temps back into the 70s to finish the holiday weekend. Another shortwave capitalizes on burgeoning instability to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening. A warming trend follows next week with good consensus among grand ensemble 500mb progs in depicting an omega blocking ridge setting up over Ontario by late week. MARINE... High pressure will fill in across the Great Lakes this morning and will slowly move across the region tomorrow before washing out across the Continental Northeast by Friday morning. This will bring dry weather through the midweek period. Northwest and north flow in the wake of a cold front will bring some slightly elevated winds across north and north-central Lake Huron with gusts 20 to 25 knots. A heightened wave field reaching the Thumb nearshore prompted a Small Craft Advisory this afternoon and evening. As the high pressure system moves over the Great Lakes on Thursday, winds will begin to veer to the northeast and will hold northeast-east through Friday. The next low pressure system is then expected to enter the Great Lakes late Friday into Saturday which will bring the next potential for showers and thunderstorms. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ421-441. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....MV DISCUSSION...TF MARINE.......AM You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  431 FXUS64 KOHX 201726 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1226 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1226 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Medium to high rain chances continue each day through the forecast period. - Rainfall totals of 2+ inches through the weekend, with some localized high amounts possible. Some minor flooding concerns. - Temperatures near seasonal norms through the next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1109 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Showers with the occasional flash of lightning have been concentrated along but mainly west of I-65 this morning. The cold front will slowly progress east and southward through the afternoon with additional development coinciding with the diurnal cycle. Model soundings show some moderate lapse rates aloft this afternoon which may promote some strong downdrafts. With that said, there is a low chance of damaging winds with activity mainly along and east of I-65 this afternoon. The PWAT value from the 12z OHX sounding was 1.61" which is above the 90th percentile for the day. Current mesoanalysis shows values above 1.7" in the northwest. Expect some heavy rainfall with the activity through the day. As dry as we've been, river and large creek flooding won't be an issue but with the heavy rain rates, there could be a couple instances of ponding in the typical low spots. The 90th percentile on the HREF keeps rain amounts around 3" or less through 00z Friday so the flash flood threat is low. CAMS have activity continuing overnight, but not as intense. The front will sag south to around the TN/MS/AL border overnight before more activity develops on Thursday along and south of the front. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1109 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 The front will begin to lift north Thursday night as a shortwave kicks through the southwesterly upper level flow lifting more showers and storms through the area. The rain and storm chances will continue through the holiday weekend as the moisture-rich southwesterly upper flow sends additional impulses through the area. Rainfall amount will vary depending on who gets the heaviest storms. River and large creek flooding will continue to not be a big concern, but ponding and minor flash flooding associated with heavy rain rates will be possible. While the daytime temperatures won't be as hot as the last 3 or 4 days, the humidity level will be noticeable with values in the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Coverage of showers and storms will increase from west to east as a frontal zone settles over the area. Variable cig/vsby conditions will accompany storms with localized heavy downpours and gusty winds. Low confidence on specific timing of showers and storms due to their scattered nature. Later in the period, after 21Z, conditions will trend downward to IFR cigs. Winds will be generally light through the period. Directions will be variable but mainly southwest through 21Z, then mainly north northwest. Into Thursday, showers will increase once again and make cigs/vsby a little more tricky. Winds will be out of the north between 5-10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 63 79 63 82 / 80 50 70 100 Clarksville 60 77 62 80 / 50 30 50 100 Crossville 60 76 60 78 / 60 80 60 90 Columbia 62 81 63 81 / 70 60 60 90 Cookeville 62 77 62 80 / 70 70 60 90 Jamestown 60 76 60 80 / 70 80 50 90 Lawrenceburg 63 79 64 80 / 70 60 70 90 Murfreesboro 63 80 63 82 / 80 60 70 90 Waverly 61 79 63 80 / 60 40 60 100 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Holley  477 FXUS64 KTSA 201726 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1226 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1226 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Rain and thunder chances increase Thursday into Friday, and remain forecast daily into the first half of next week with periods of heavy rain. - Abnormally cool weather is expected through Thursday, with a slow warming trend then developing into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Low level moisture and fairly light winds within the lower levels underneath weak mid level high pressure moving through the region Wednesday will allow for low level cloud cover to remain into tonight over eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Temperatures Wednesday afternoon of upper 50s to mid 70s from north to south are anticipated. These conditions should keep temperatures from changing all that much tonight with lows in the 50s/60s. Overnight tonight, as the mid level high exits to the east/northeast, mid level flow becomes more southwestward which will aid in lifting a shortwave out of Mexico and into Texas Thursday morning. Increasing warm advection ahead of this wave combined with ample amounts of low level moisture bring the return of rain showers to eastern Oklahoma late tonight and spreading eastward over the CWA Thursday morning. Instability looks to be mainly elevated and remain quite limited. Thus will only carry slight chances of thunder into Thursday morning for the western half of the CWA. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Rain showers and slight to low end chance thunderstorm potentials spread over eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the day Thursday and continue Thursday night while the shortwave lifts northeast into the region. Latest data continues to highlight marginal instability Thursday/Thursday night, and in response severe weather is not anticipated. However, with precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches forecast, a heavy rain threat exists through Thursday night across the CWA. At this time, widespread half inch to 1.5 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts topping 3 inches are forecast into Friday morning. This rainfall on top of recent rains could increase flood concerns into Friday. Rain showers taper off and exit during the day Friday with the departing wave. Clouds cover and rain showers should continue the cooler conditions Thursday. As the backside of the disturbance exits Friday, cloud cover tries to become more scattered over eastern Oklahoma with warmer temperatures in the 70s to low 80s Friday afternoon. Friday afternoon/evening storm chances increase out west with a developing vorticity maxima moving out into the Texas Panhandles. This vort max makes its way eastward Friday night into the CWA ahead of a frontal boundary sagging southeast into the region late Friday night/Saturday. The combination of these features along with slightly greater instability increases thunderstorm chances for the CWA Friday night/Saturday. Again a heavy rain threat exists with also an isolated to limited severe potential. The frontal boundary stalls over the region, and then lifts back northward Sunday from a broad area of low pressure slowly spreading across the southern Plains. Latest model solutions continue to indicate this area of low pressure becoming more of a cut off low that holds over the region into the first half of next week before getting picked up with a longwave trof developing over the western CONUS. Thus, shower and scattered thunderstorm chances remain forecast Sunday through Wednesday across the CWA. At this time, the greater potential could be during the afternoon/evening hours each day, though more precise details are still to be determined. A locally heavy rain threat as well as an isolated/limited severe potential exists each day into early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 547 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Shower and thunderstorms are ongoing along and just east of the Oklahoma/Arkansas border, with CAMs showing their dissipation by mid morning. Will keep a thunderstorm mention at the W AR sites for the first couple of hours of the TAF period. Most sites continue to have IFR ceilings, with the exception being FSM, and a slow improvement to MVFR is expected late morning into the afternoon. Existing visibility reductions in light fog should also improve by this time. Ceilings should decrease once again during the latter part of the TAF period, with additional showers or thunderstorms possible for the E OK sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 68 59 70 63 / 10 30 90 90 FSM 79 63 77 65 / 20 10 60 90 MLC 75 63 73 64 / 10 20 90 90 BVO 65 55 69 60 / 10 30 80 90 FYV 70 60 75 63 / 40 20 60 90 BYV 67 58 73 62 / 50 10 60 90 MKO 70 60 72 63 / 10 30 90 90 MIO 64 57 71 62 / 10 20 70 90 F10 68 60 71 62 / 10 30 90 90 HHW 79 65 74 64 / 10 20 90 90 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...22  517 FXUS61 KCLE 201728 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 128 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The only notable change with this forecast update is that thunder has been removed from the forecast this afternoon as the area remains stable. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Below average temperature will linger through Thursday and as cold front departs south. 2) Multiple rounds of widespread showers and thunderstorms will impact the holiday weekend. Heavy rain with totals of 1-1.5 inches may result in localized flooding. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A much colder Canadian high pressure has begun to push south across the area behind a departing cold front. 850mb temperatures around 6- 7C will settle across the area and persist through Thursday, keeping temperatures below average. Highs today and Thursday will only climb into the upper 50s to low 60s before cooling off overnight into the mid 40s. Given the expected widespread cloud coverage, not expecting radiational cooling to further lower these temperatures at all, precluded any potential for frost developing. In addition, lingering light showers may persist into this evening across the southeastern tier of counties (closest to the departing boundary) possibly keeping temperatures cooler in the low 50s. Opted to remove the chance of thunder with this update as overall instability, both at the surface and elevated, remain very minimal. Overall rainfall totals for the remainder of today should remain less than 0.2 of an inch. KEY MESSAGE 2... On Friday, the aforementioned high pressure will begin to drift east as a low pressure system begins to push north from the Gulf Coast region. As this system approaches the area on Friday, the chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms will return through much of the holiday weekend. Initially on Friday, overrunning of the warm, moist airmass couple with support from an upper level shortwave trough will allow for rain showers to expand northward. There remains high confidence in widespread showers with possible thunder late Friday into early Saturday as the very moist airmass continue to drift north. Looking at current forecast conditions, showers and storms should remain progressive with limited potential for training which will play into our favor given the increasing PWAT values throughout Friday night. By late Friday night/early Saturday morning, warm cloud layers will deepen to over 10kft with a strong LLJ nudging into the area. This will result in periods of very efficient, heavy rainfall late Friday through the day on Saturday as a warm front lifts north. As a result, current QPF totals for this time period are generally 1-1.5 inches. This amount of rainfall in a 24-hour time span has the potential to raise local river levels and result in nearby flooding concerns. In addition, localized ponding and flooding in typical spots is likely. To highlight the heavy rainfall for Friday into Saturday, WPC has put the Ohio portion of the area in a Day 3 Marginal (level 1 of 5) ERO. Saturday will warm throughout the day with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. As the warm front lifts north late Saturday, there should be a notable break in precipitation before widespread showers return on Sunday. The heaviest of these showers should be focused along and east of I71 where diurnal instability could result in scattered thunderstorms. In addition, mid and upper level support from a shortwave trough and upper level jet will further enhance support for widespread precipitation. The airmass will remain very moist and allow for an additional 0.25-0.5 inches of rain to fall, primarily over far NEOH and NWPA. This additional rainfall could further enhance ongoing flooding and result in additional flooding concerns. To highlight this, WPC has put the aforementioned area in a Day 4 Marginal (level 1 of 5) ERO. Highs on Sunday will climb into the mid to upper 70s. Ultimately will have to monitor the flooding potential throughout the weekend as multiple periods of heavy rainfall is expected. On Memorial Day, showers should gradually diminish with temperatures lingering in the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/... The trend through the TAF period will be improving conditions as MVFR, and some patchy IFR, ceilings become VFR. Scattered showers continue across terminals though not anticipating any embedded thunderstorms across Northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania terminals. Showers will exit to the southeast tonight allowing for MVFR ceilings to lift to VFR, but remain under 5000 ft. High pressure will build over the region tonight into Thursday allowing for ceilings greater than 5000 ft by Thursday morning. Northerly to northeasterly winds 8-12 knots this afternoon will decrease to 5-10 knots tonight. Expect for northeasterly winds to increase late Thursday morning to 10-15 knots with occasional gusts to 20-25 knots during peak heating. Outlook...Non-VFR expected at times in rain late Friday through Saturday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms with non- VFR conditions possible again on Sunday and Monday. && .MARINE... Winds are quickly turning north-northeast early this morning as a cold front crosses the lake. Winds will briefly increase to around 15kt across the western and central basins this morning, which will briefly build waves to 2-4 feet with those waves being driven towards the shore. Winds briefly lull this afternoon. A stronger pressure gradient is expected Thursday into Friday as high pressure slides north and northeast of Lake Erie. Winds will turn northeast tonight and increase to 15-20kt. Winds will remain northeast and increase further to 20-25kt at times Thursday and Thursday night. Winds gradually turn more easterly and then southeasterly Friday and Friday night, remaining elevated at 15-25kt until late Friday night or early Saturday. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements will be needed for most or all nearshore waters beginning overnight tonight or early Thursday. Will not hoist those with this package but they will be coming today at some point. Looking ahead to the holiday weekend, generally southerly winds may be elevated enough to cause issues for smaller craft on Saturday. Winds will trend lighter for Sunday and Monday and eventually come around to the northwest. It will be unsettled with periods of rain and perhaps some thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday, with a drying trend likely by Monday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...13 MARINE...Sullivan  556 FXUS62 KMFL 201729 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 129 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 126 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 - High risk of rip currents along the east coast of South Florida will continue through this evening. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly across SW Florida again today. Frequent lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy downpours are the main threats. - Widespread Moderate HeatRisk for all urban areas through the end of the week. Heat indices in the upper 90s and lower 100s. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 The pattern will remain generally unchanged through the short term period, with an upper level ridge extending across the Gulf and over the peninsula and an upper level low meandering over the western Atlantic waters. Near the surface, an area of high pressure will remain in place over the western Atlantic waters, extending over the peninsula. This setup will help promote robust easterly flow across South Florida during this period, while also maintaining some moisture advection near the surface. However, overnight observations from the 00Z MFL sounding and ACARS flights at KMIA show a pocket of drier air intruding near the mid-levels. Water vapor imagery suggests this is dry air being pulled southward along the western periphery of the upper level low currently east of the Bahamas, and model guidance supports a continuation of this phenomenon at least through Thursday. In fact, most modeled PWATs within the ensemble guidance envelope are trending below average for this time of year, really highlighting the shift from conditions earlier in the week. With prevailing easterly flow and some low-level moisture still in place, chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain on the forecast each day, especially along the sea breeze boundaries over interior/southwest FL each afternoon. However, with drier air aloft and weak forcing and steering, any activity that develops should be transient and sub-severe in nature, with occasional lightning and some gusty winds the main impacts. Some spots could get half an inch to an inch of rain, but otherwise the risk of localized flooding remains low at this time. Temperatures each day will continue to rise into the upper 80s (along the East Coast) and up into the mid 90s (across southwest FL), with heat indices peaking in the mid 90s across the East Coast, and up into the triple digits across southwest FL. Warm overnight temperatures, especially across the East Coast, will impede much in the way of relief, especially for any vulnerable communities. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 156 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the weather pattern aloft across the southeast CONUS through the end of the week. The upper low over the western Atlantic will begin to dissolve and high pressure ridging over the Gulf will shift eastward over the Florida peninsula. Pressure heights will increase slightly across the region heading into next week, with a new H5 centroid positioning itself over north Florida by Sunday afternoon. Pressure heights will generally be in the 588 dm to 592 dm range through the period, which are within the upper quartile for this time of year. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic will keep the easterly wind regime through the middle of next week. This pattern will continue to advect some waves of higher moisture, where PWATs may climb up to 1.8 inches. But for the most part, precipitable water content will generally remain about average at 1.4 to 1.5 inches. Models are not showing as clear cut of a middle dry layer, but ridging aloft should contribute to some mid-level subsidence and suppression of stronger storm activity. Overall, with easterly flow prevailing, the highest chances for afternoon storm activity will focus along the Gulf breeze over interior and southwest Florida each afternoon. Temperatures will trend slightly higher for the weekend and towards the beginning of next week. Maximum temperatures will range from the upper 80s along the Atlantic coast to the mid 90s in southwest Florida. Heat indices will climb into the mid 100s for parts of Collier and Monroe counties. At this time, Heat Advisories look unlikely, but the NWS Prototype Probabilistic HeatRisk tool continues to show increased chances (40% to 50%) of Major HeatRisk. These conditions will affect anyone without proper hydration or cooling. Some guidance is also showing that overnight lows may stay quite warm across the east coast metros, with temperatures only dropping to upper 70s and low 80s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 126 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across the east coast terminals through the forecast period. ESE winds will range between 10 to 15 kts this afternoon into this evening. Winds could gust between 20 to 25 kts through the early evening hours. At KAPF, scattered showers and storms will be possible near the terminals this afternoon. Periods of MVFR or IFR will be possible around any shower or thunderstorm along with gusty and erratic winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Generally benign boating conditions will prevail as alight to moderate easterly breeze persists across the local waters. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible each day, but will favor the Gulf waters under this easterly wind regime. Gustier winds and rough seas are possible in and around thunderstorm activity. && .BEACHES... Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Strong onshore flow will continue to promote a high risk of rip currents across the Atlantic coastline through this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 89 79 89 / 0 20 10 30 West Kendall 74 90 75 90 / 10 20 10 30 Opa-Locka 77 90 78 90 / 0 20 10 30 Homestead 77 89 78 89 / 10 20 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 78 87 79 87 / 10 20 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 78 87 79 87 / 10 20 10 30 Pembroke Pines 78 91 79 91 / 0 20 10 30 West Palm Beach 78 87 79 88 / 10 20 10 20 Boca Raton 79 87 80 87 / 10 20 10 20 Naples 74 91 76 91 / 30 40 20 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....NMP AVIATION...CWC  543 FXUS63 KIND 201729 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 129 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch remains in effect until 2pm today across south central Indiana - Cooler mid week with a brief break from rain chances, before showers and storms return to the forecast late week into the holiday weekend && .DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)... Issued at 332 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Today - Precip along the cold front slowed southward progress this evening, but the boundary will continue to slowly sag through the region today. Upper level waves moving along the front will produce additional showers and a few thunderstorms today, primarily across the southeastern half of the area, and mainly through mid afternoon before rain chances rapidly taper off across the area. Will maintain the flood watch in place across the south given this expectation and continued plentiful deep moisture through midday. Relatively minimal instability will limit coverage and intensity of thunderstorms, with no severe weather expected. Tonight through Tuesday - High pressure will produce cooler conditions through much of the rest of the work week, with rain chances returning as a broad upper level low and associated shortwave disturbances pull a warmer and moist airmass back into the region. Model agreement is fairly high on what may end up being a washout on Friday, though discrepancies increase quite a bit beyond then. Blend PoPs have increased in the past 24 hours for the holiday weekend, though there is significant uncertainty in coverage at any one time, and changes are likely in the coming days. Nonetheless, rain chances and above normal temperatures will characterize the coming holiday weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 128 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Impacts: - MVFR ceilings with rain at times, ending late this afternoon. IFR conditions at times at BMG - MVFR ceilings continue overnight Discussion: A cold front has passed through central Indiana with all terminals observing north-northeasterly winds. Winds become more northeasterly with time as surface high pressure builds in to our north on Thursday. Rain continues from HUF to IND southward, with heavy rain in the vicinity of BMG as of this writing. Rain is anticipated to diminish in intensity but continue to some extent through the afternoon. MVFR ceilings persist at all terminals except LAF. A few breaks in the low-level clouds have occurred at HUF and IND with ceilings briefly at 3500 feet. Overall, MVFR ceilings will be more common through tonight. IFR conditions have occurred at BMG with the heavier rain, these will become MVFR as rainfall intensity decreases. VFR conditions are expected to return on Thursday. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for INZ052>055-060>064- 067>072. && $$ AVIATION...Eckhoff DISCUSSION...Nield  528 FXUS63 KMPX 201728 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1228 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably cool & dry today into Friday - Next chance for showers & thunderstorms comes Friday afternoon into Saturday. - Warmer for the latter half of the Memorial Day weekend through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Clear skies & calm winds are resulting in a chilly night across much of the region, with areas of frost expected until sunrise. Recent rains have also resulted in some patchy shallow fog & mist to develop across west-central Minnesota, again expected to clear up after sunrise. Otherwise no weather concerns of note until later on Friday with seasonably cool temperatures in the 60s expected for the next few afternoons. Our next chance for rain is expected Friday afternoon through Saturday as a shortwave trough digs along the US-Canada border. Enough instability will be present ahead of the system Friday afternoon & evening to likely generate some thunder, along with most of the rainfall from this system. Lighter rain showers will likely linger through saturday as the system exits the region off to the Great Lakes. Rainfall amounts Friday night look to be on the order of 0.5-1" across western Minnesota, decreasing to 0.1-0.25" across western Wisconsin. The Memorial Day weekend gets off to a cool & cloudy start with some light showers/drizzle lingering through the day on Saturday & temperatures remaining in the low to mid 60s. Warmer & sunnier conditions are expected for the rest of the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 70s Sunday & mid 80s likely on Monday. We'll have to monitor the potential for a weak upper level disturbance bringing a chance for thunderstorms sometime Sunday night into Monday, but these chances look to mainly limited to southern Minnesota. More summer-y conditions are expected for next week as ensemble guidance highlights multiple days with temperatures in the 80s, or around 10 degrees above normal for the end of May. No major systems or widespread chances for rain are expected. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Fair weather Cu have blossomed across much of eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin early this afternoon. Winds are light and variable with high pressure overhead. Looking out to the southwest over the Central Plains, high clouds are beginning to creep into southwestern Minnesota. Expecting high clouds to increase through this evening with winds becoming east to southeasterly by tomorrow morning as the high continues to move east. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. PM MVFR/-SHRA. Wind E 10-15kts. SAT...MVFR/-SHRA early. Wind S 5kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 5kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...Dye  525 FXUS64 KJAN 201728 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1228 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - The potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will need to be monitored for the next several days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 322 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Through tonight: cooler and wet through the period. Early morning local radars showed a weakening band of showers and thunderstorms roughly from Brookhaven to West Point. This convective activity was along a nearly stalled outflow boundary that was ahead of a cold front that was still to the northwest of our CWA. A surface high becoming centered over the Great Lakes region will try to push the cold front into the northwest portions of our CWA today but it will be the stalled boundary already in place that convection is expected to initiate along with daytime heating. Our winds aloft will remain southwesterly and surface ridging to our east will help maintain our warm moist airmass that will fuel the convection. Although the potential for any strong to severe storms will be low through tonight, with PWATs around two inches, locally heavy rain will be possible. There will be the potential for storms to train over the same areas repeatedly that may lead to some minor runoff issues in urban and low lying areas. Otherwise, the rainfall is expected to be beneficial and help ease drought conditions. As the convection is expected to be mostly diurnal, the heavy rainfall potential will be this afternoon into early evening. /22/ Thursday through Tuesday: Wet pattern will continue as the frontal boundary stalls north of the CWA and multiple shortwave disturbances traverse the region for the rest of the week into Memorial Day. Despite rainfall, high temps will reach the low/mid 80s and lows will be in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Widespread showers and storms are likely for the ArkLaMiss region. A few storms may reach severe limits, however, organized severe weather is not anticipated as instability won't be favorable. Rainfall amounts are estimate to range from 3-6 inches over the course of the extended period, providing some drought relief. As mentioned in previous discussion, SLU CIPS analogs reveal some heavy rainfall analogs from the historic archives that suggest a flash flood threat could evolve based on our current guidance forecasts, but the details are too uncertain as of now to provide formal messaging. Keep in mind that with each day that accumulates significant rainfall, antecedent conditions will become more favorable for a flood threat. /SW,EC/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Multiple TAF sites are reporting MVFR/VFR ceilings as of 1728Z to start off the period. Isolated to scattered -TSRA will develop this afternoon and spread into east and southeast MS by 23Z. The TSRA wl diminish after 02Z Thu but -SHRA wl remain possible through the end of the TAF period. After 07Z MVFR cigs wl develop over most TAF sites and lower to IFR/LIFR by 10Z. IFR/LIFR ceilings will prevail across the area through 16Z Thursday. After 16Z, ceilings will begin to improve to a mixture of MVFR/VFR. /CR/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 69 85 70 82 / 50 60 80 100 Meridian 69 86 70 82 / 50 50 60 100 Vicksburg 69 84 69 81 / 40 80 80 90 Hattiesburg 69 86 70 83 / 40 80 60 100 Natchez 70 85 70 82 / 50 80 90 100 Greenville 67 82 68 81 / 40 60 90 90 Greenwood 67 84 68 82 / 40 60 80 90 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 22/SW/CR  736 FXUS61 KBOX 201731 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 131 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Signs of potentially salvaging at least one dry weekend day, but uncertainty remains high. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Final day of record warmth today with highs in the 90s away from the immediate coast. Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms by the afternoon with a risk for damaging winds and some hail. - Cooler temperatures through Memorial Day Weekend. Unsettled weather returns for the weekend with periods of rain possible, but confidence is low. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Final day of record warmth today with highs in the 90s away from the immediate coast. Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms by the afternoon with a risk for damaging winds and some hail. One more day with near record temperatures on tap before a drastic return to your regularly scheduled May weather. The Heat Advisory remains in effect as we see an anomolously warm airmass remaining overhead, even as the upper level ridge begins to break down. Expecting a mix of sun and diurnal clouds, with westerly downslope flow once again contributing to temp maxima in the CT and Merrimack valleys. Again, will have to go to the immediate south coast to escape the heat but a slight shift in wind direction may bring those hot temps closer to the shore than on Tuesday. Relief then arrives behind a cold front which is dragged through the region from west to east between late morning and this evening. This warm and moist airmass (dewpoints climb into the mid 60s) produces a decent amount of instability, albeit a bit less than Tuesday, around 1,000 J/kg while model soundings show very steep low level lapse rates (8.5 C/km). Convergence ahead of the cold front will act on this airmass to produce a broken line of relatively shallow thunderstorms, limited in depth and organization by poor ML lapse rates and marginal 0-6 km bulk shear respectively. Unlike Tuesday's more northward severe risk, the best instability and resultant t-storm chance looks to be south of the MA pike where some damage wind gusts would be the main risk. KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler temperatures through Memorial Day Weekend. Unsettled weather returns for the weekend with periods of rain possible, but confidence is low. High pressure slowly builds in on Thursday into Friday suppressing any rainfall to the south; some guidance wants to keep rain close enough to the southern periphery to brush the south coast with rain showers the first half of Thursday. Ensemble guidance is a bit more bullish on measurable rainfall Thursday morning than the current forecast, so that may end up needing to be bumped up in the future. Looking to the holiday weekend, as discussed last night the AI guidance continues to be dry, with a stronger high suppressing unsettled weather just to the south over the mid Atlantic while the traditional models are wetter and colder. That being said, the GFS continues to also suppress the rain south until Monday while the ECMWF has at least slowed the arrival, to perhaps salvage Saturday. That being said, ensemble guidance doesn't seem to have caught on to any drying ideas, still bullish on rain both days (both the GEFS and EPS). The main idea is, there remains a great deal of uncertainty with regard to the holiday weekend, but still leaning the forecast on a wetter and cooler (50s and low 60s) solution. Temperature-wise, after a seasonable Thu/Fri in the upper 60s/low 70s the weekend is looking like it may be colder than normal for late May. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18Z TAFUpdate... Through 02z...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR. A few showers possible along and north of the MA Pike through 20z. Scattered SHRA/TSRA developing across CT/RI/SE MA after 20z. Any t-storms will be accompanied by downpours and brief gusty winds. Localized stratus may impact ACK this evening. W gusts to 25 kt diminishing this evening. Tonight and Thursday...High confidence. Mainly VFR cigs. Scattered showers redeveloping near the south coast overnight into Thu morning with brief MVFR possible. NW wind 5-15 kt this evening becoming light N overnight. Sea- breezes developing Thu. Thursday night...High confidence. VFR. KBOS...High confidence in TAF. KBDL...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: VFR. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Wednesday: High confidence. Small craft advisories remain in effect through 06z Thurs. SW winds of 15-25 kt continues this afternoon and overnight Seas will also be building to around 4-6 ft, with some 7 footers possible tonight over the southern waters. Mainly dry weather prevails through tonight with a few showers or thunderstorms possible for the northern waters., Some fog may persist and expand across the southern waters tonight on increasing southwest winds. Outlook /Thursday Night through Monday/... Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Rain showers likely. Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers. && .CLIMATE... Record Highs for Wed May 20... BOS 91/1996 BDL 99/1996 PVD 95/1996 ORH 91/1903 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ002>004. MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ005>007- 010>019. RI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for RIZ001>004. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230- 232>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ254>256. && $$ DISCUSSION...BW AVIATION...KJC MARINE...BW CLIMATE...BW  714 FXUS63 KDLH 201731 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1231 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Freeze Warning has been issued for tonight for areas from Duluth to Brainerd on north, where temperatures will drop into the lower 30s and threaten sensitive vegetation. A Frost Advisory has been issued for areas to the south. - Cool temps continue through midweek with a warming trend into the weekend. - Near-critical fire weather conditions may develop on Thursday due to relative humidity dropping to 25 percent and gusty south winds up to 20 mph. && .UPDATE... Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 For the overnight hours and early this morning, a blanket of cloud cover is helping to moderate our temperatures. Because of this, temperatures will not get quite as low as previously forecast. However, despite this slight moderation, most areas within the current headlines will still see those frost and freeze conditions. Make sure tender plants and sensitive vegetation remain protected through the early morning hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 For the rest of this afternoon, chilly and cloudy conditions will persist across the Northland with scattered rain showers/sprinkles. Temperatures tonight will highly depend on the cloud cover. Satellite imagery shows a cellular nature to the clouds, which have broken out best over north-central Minnesota, but the cumulus field still extends well to the west and south. This creates a classic spring conundrum for overnight low temperatures when the mean of guidance is near freezing. High confidence exists for clearing and colder temperatures in the southwestern sections of our region, while lower confidence remains for the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. Am least confident (40-60%) in getting below 35 degrees over northwest Wisconsin due to the cloud cover, so have issued a Frost Advisory for all of northwest Wisconsin and Pine County in Minnesota. Around the Brainerd Lakes, I have the most confidence they will clear out and have gone below guidance with min temps around freezing. Farther north and into the Arrowhead, confidence in cloud cover lowers again, but the incoming air is cold enough I still have high confidence in freezing temperatures. A Freeze Warning has been issued tonight for areas from Duluth to Brainerd and northward, where temperatures will drop into the lower 30s. Wednesday will give us a sunny and milder day with afternoon high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s, with cooler conditions near Lake Superior. Clear skies Wednesday night will allow for rapid cooling once again, leading to another night of patchy frost across the area with lows in the mid 30s. Frost Advisories are possible, even likely Wednesday night into Thursday morning. On Thursday, high pressure departs to the east, bringing sunny skies, southerly winds warmer temperatures which continue into Friday. Highs both days should get into the 60s with upper 50s near Lake Superior. Rain chances return Friday night through Saturday as an upper level trough moves out of the Northern Plains and across the Great Lakes. Mostly cloudy skies and damp conditions will keep Saturday highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Upper level ridging to our west and southerly flow across the region will bring a surge of much warmer temperatures to the region for the rest of the Memorial Day weekend. I expect highs on Monday to be well above normal. However, this will be a fairly active pattern with shortwaves likely to dive through this upper level pattern, and we also have some chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. High pressure is currently located over the region, but a VFR cloud deck persists across most of the terminals. Expect this to move to the east and lift through the afternoon. Clouds are expected to return Thursday morning as the high shifts to the east and southerly flow takes hold. Winds will be variable this afternoon and tonight at around 5 knots or less before turning southerly around sunrise tomorrow. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Northwest winds will gradually back to the southeast and east across Western Lake Superior today, remaining below ten knots with waves of one foot or less. East winds will persist on Thursday, gradually increasing to 10 to 15 knots while waves remain below three feet. Stronger winds and building waves are anticipated by Friday and Saturday as a low pressure system approaches. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Winds will remain light and variable this afternoon and tonight under high pressure. Minimum relative humidity this afternoon will drop below 30 percent for much of the Northland, with some areas seeing below 25 percent in northeast Minnesota. A lake breeze will move inland from Lake Superior early this afternoon, leading to a quick wind shift, a shot of cold air, and rising relative humidity values in a short amount of time. Fire weather concerns significantly increase on Thursday. Gusty south winds up to 20 mph will combine with minimum relative humidity values falling to 25 percent. The most critical conditions are expected from the northern border southward through the Brainerd Lakes. Moisture returns by Friday, bringing humidity values above 30 percent. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...KML DISCUSSION...LE AVIATION...BJH MARINE...KML FIRE WEATHER...BJH  806 FXUS61 KPHI 201732 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 132 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation section updated for the 18z TAFs. Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) added for potential severe thunderstorms later today for much of our area. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Hot and humid conditions continue, with record setting early season heat probable, through today. 2. A strong cold front brings some showers and possibly isolated severe thunderstorms to the region this afternoon and evening. 3. Significantly cooler temperatures and several rounds of showers for the end of this week and the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions continue, with record setting early season heat probable, through today. A strong upper-level ridge centered off the Southeast U.S. coast starts to flatten on its northwest side today. Though, with surface high pressure anchored in the western Atlantic a southwesterly flow of early season (anomalous) heat will continue to flow across our area today. Temperatures peak in the 90s for many areas again this afternoon, except cooler along the coasts and the higher terrain. How quickly cloud cover arrives, along with showers and some thunderstorms from an approaching cold front, will also impact high temperatures today, especially north and west of I-95. Either way though, we will have a high launching pad once again for temperatures, with lows this morning only in the upper 60s to low 70s, so it will still be rather hot this afternoon. While the surface dew points will mix out some during peak heating this afternoon due to the drier ground and boundary layer, this stretch of early season heat, with additional record breaking high temperatures probable, will have potentially greater impacts. Peak heat indices will be near 100 degrees, with the core of the heat shifting a bit more south and east today as the strong cold front starts to arrive. The Heat Advisory remains in place for across much of the region through 8 PM this evening. While some areas will probably fall a little short of criteria, particularly in Berks County, the Lehigh Valley, and into northern New Jersey where it will be cooler today ahead of the approaching front, it will still be another hot and humid day regardless. The potential for greater impacts, due to lack of acclimation this early in the season and the accumulative effect with this being the third straight day of high heat, continues to drive our decision. Along the immediate coast, where the wind turns more from the south and especially southeast will result in quite a bit of cooling due to the chilly ocean and therefore continued to not include these areas in the Heat Advisory. KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings some showers and possibly isolated severe thunderstorms to the region this afternoon and evening. A strong cold front will settle across our area this afternoon and tonight before stalling near Delmarva into Thursday. Showers and some thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front, and there looks to be a zone of higher instability across our central and southern zones this afternoon. It is in these areas where convection may try to organize a bit more as it develops eastward and encounters plenty of instability. The deep-layer shear is on the marginal side (strongest shear to our northwest) as are the mid level lapse rates, however a hot boundary layer will result in steep low-level lapse rates. The combination of the steep low-level lapse rates and any stronger convective cores, locally strong to damaging winds (downbursts) will be possible. Due to the lower shear convection may struggle to organize, however given the hot air mass in place some linear or small clustering could develop from about the Philadelphia metro on south and eastward late in the afternoon and evening. The coverage of stronger convection is of lower confidence, however given the lower shear values the severe thunderstorm risk looks isolated to scattered. General rainfall totals are 0.10- 0.50 inches, however given precipitable water values of 1.5-2.0 inches, localized higher amounts are quite possible with any stronger showers or thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms should end by late this evening, with some showers lingering in the wake of the cold front. KEY MESSAGE 3...Significantly cooler temperatures and several rounds of showers for the end of this week and the holiday weekend. A cold front is forecast to settle and then stall to our south Thursday and into the holiday weekend. Some ripples of energy ride along and north of it and this looks to bring some rounds of showers to our region. A more organized surface low well to our west may provide an increase in showers or a period of rain later Friday and Saturday. The precipitation may become enhanced some as surface high pressure to our northeast wedges southwestward into our area creating some cool air damming. Furthermore, with PWAT values around 1.50-1.90 inches over the weekend, which is around the climatological maximum for this time of the year, there is at least a marginal chance for excessive rainfall on Saturday. We will be keeping an eye on how strong the baroclinic forcing gets along the stalled boundary wedged between the high to the northeast and the low to the west. Northeast flow along with several rounds of showers will all result in much cooler temperatures Thursday through Saturday, then some warming should take place Sunday and into Memorial Day. The pattern looks active though and therefore some additional showers are quite possible right into Memorial Day. While not great timing, our region needs rain as a long-term drought continues. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. This afternoon...VFR overall with increasing clouds. Some showers and thunderstorms arrive after 19z with areas of sub-VFR conditions. Locally gusty winds, 30-40 knots, with any stronger thunderstorms. Winds varying from west-northwest to west-southwest 8-15 knots with some gusts to 20 knots. Low confidence on the timing details. Tonight...A period of MVFR/IFR conditions with showers and thunderstorms this evening, then some lingering showers may also contribute to sub-VFR conditions overnight. Northwest winds becoming north-northeast mainly 10 knots or less. Low confidence. Thursday...A period of sub-VFR conditions with some showers. Northeast winds 8-12 knots, with some local gusts to 20 knots especially at KACY. Low confidence. Outlook... Thursday night...A period of sub-VFR conditions with some showers. Friday through Sunday...Periods of sub-VFR conditions with showers at times, especially late Friday and Saturday. && .MARINE... Southerly winds will be gusty, to 20 knots, through today, however a hot air mass over the chilly ocean water is resulting in a very strong inversion just about the surface. This is limiting the vertical mixing. While seas in the southerly flow could build to 5 feet through today, it is very marginal and therefore largely sub-SCA conditions are expected. There is the potential for some gusty thunderstorms this evening. Outlook... Thursday...Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible with northeast winds gusting around 20kts. Friday and Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions should occur. Sunday...Seas may linger around 4 to 6 feet, otherwise the conditions should be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Rip Currents... This afternoon, south to southwest winds will range from 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. There will be a southeast swell with a period around 6 seconds. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for the Jersey Shore and a LOW risk for Delaware Beaches. On Thursday, winds become northeast 10 to 15 mph at the Jersey Shore in Monmouth County, and 15 to 20 mph at the rest of the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches. There will be a southerly swell with a period around 6 seconds. Breaking waves will be 1 to 3 feet. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at the Jersey Shore in Monmouth County and a MODERATE risk for the rest of the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. Surface temperatures inland will be in the 90s again today, and temperatures along the coasts will mainly be in the 70s to near 80 due to ocean temperatures in the 50s. These cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .CLIMATE... More record breaking temperatures are possible today. Records for our climate sites are listed below: Monthly Record High Temperatures for May Site Record/Date Allentown (ABE) 97/May 19, 1962 AC Airport (ACY) 99/May 29, 1969 AC Marina (55N) 95/May 31, 1895 & May 23, 1925 Georgetown (GED) 98/May 28, 1991 Mount Pocono (MPO) 94/May 22, 1911 Philadelphia (PHL) 98/May 19, 2026 (new) Reading (RDG) 97/May 20, 1996 & May 19, 2026 Trenton (TTN) 99/May 23, 1911 & May 31, 1986 Wilmington (ILG) 98/May 10, 1895 & May 30, 1895 Monthly Record Warmest Low Temperatures for May Site Record/Date Allentown (ABE) 71/May 31, 1975, May 28 & 31, 1991 AC Airport (ACY) 73/May 24, 2004 & May 19, 2017 AC Marina (55N) 73/May 30 & 31, 1987, & May 31, 1991 Georgetown (GED) 74/May 23, 1953 & May 20, 2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 68/May 21, 1996 Philadelphia (PHL) 78/May 31, 1895 Reading (RDG) 72/May 28 & 31, 1939, May 31, 1991, & May 19, 2026 Trenton (TTN) 75/May 31, 1895 Wilmington (ILG) 75/May 30, 1895 Record High Temperatures May 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 92/1962 & 1996 AC Airport (ACY) 96/1996 AC Marina (55N) 93/1996 Georgetown (GED) 95/1962 Mount Pocono (MPO) 89/1996 Philadelphia (PHL) 94/1962 & 1996 Reading (RDG) 97/1996 Trenton (TTN) 94/1996 Wilmington (ILG) 96/1996 Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 66/2019 AC Airport (ACY) 68/1996(ties) AC Marina (55N) 69/1996 Georgetown (GED) 74/2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 61/1959 Philadelphia (PHL) 71/2019 Reading (RDG) 69/1959 & 1996 Trenton (TTN) 68/1903, 1959, & 1962 Wilmington (ILG) 70/2019 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ060>062-070- 071-101>106. NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ007>010-012- 013-015-017>020-027. DE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AKL/Gorse/MJL AVIATION...AKL/Gorse/MJL MARINE...AKL/MJL/MPS  853 FXUS63 KGID 201733 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1233 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The Frost Advisory for Valley, Greeley, Sherman, Howard and Nance counties will expire at 8AM this morning. - A handful of showers will move into a few western portions of the area this morning. A few more showers and non-severe storms will move in again later this evening and overnight tonight (35-65% chances, concentrated south of I-80). - Periodic shower/thunderstorm chances will return Thursday and Friday. Most area can expect to see between 0.25-0.5" of precipitation accumulation through Friday night. - Highs today and Thursday will stick in the upper 50s to mid 60s followed by a gradual warming trend back to the 80s by Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Temperatures this morning approaching the mid 30s across a few portions of the area north of I-80 will bring the potential for frost formation. A Frost Advisory remains in effect for Valley, Greeley, Sherman, Howard and Nance counties through 7AM. The cooler temperatures that were observed yesterday will continue to stick around for the next three days as weak surface winds among mostly overcast skies will prevent highs from warming out of the mid 50s to mid 60s. Lows the next 3 nights should continue to fall between the upper 30s to lower 50s, generally only warming a few degrees each night. Higher surface pressure centered over the Plains/Midwest region today and tomorrow will serve as the damper to the surface winds. Light to steady winds out of the east to southeast will last through Thursday. Speeds will primarily stick between 5-10MPH with occasional gusts as high as 20MPH possible. The main story in the short-term will be the potential for precipitation that will come in in the form of several waves of showers and non-severe thunderstorms over the next several days (through Friday night). Starting out this morning with a few showers crawling up from the southwest, another more widespread coverage of showers and weak thunderstorms will push back in later tonight and into early Thursday morning (35-65% chances concentrated south of I- 80). There is generally not enough instability out to threaten any sort of severe weather threat (only 0-200J/kg of CAPE). Aloft, the continuation of intermountain west troughing will keep the area underneath a zone of weak isentropic assent paired with mid- level CVA along the downstream side of the mid-level trough. These features will provide continued support for developing areas of showers and weak thunderstorms across the foothills of the Rockies over the next few days. The waves of showers/storms will continue to track up into portions of central Nebraska/Kansas. Most areas should expected to see between mainly 0.25-0.5+" of precipitation through Friday night. The best individual precipitation chances currently lie overnight Wednesday as well as Thursday night into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Temperatures remain relatively cool today behind the system that resulted in multiple rounds of severe weather over the last 3-4 days. Tonight, temperatures are anticipated to drop into the 30s and 40s, aided by light winds and mostly clear skies under surface high pressure. Clouds are then anticipated to increase early Wednesday morning, which should keep temperatures from dropping much below 35 degrees. Nevertheless, this may result in some frost formation, potentially damaging sensitive plants in areas near/north of Highway 92. The Frost Advisory area is "generous," mainly because we are so far into the growing season already. Many areas, especially in southern parts of Howard, Sherman, and Nance counties, likely will not see any frost impact. Wednesday will remain cool, and rain is expected to slide in from the west as an upper trough pushes into the central Plains. Many areas will remain dry, but western zones could pick up 0.05-0.15". Later Wednesday night into Thursday morning, isolated to scattered showers/t-storms become possible, but instability is very limited and no severe weather is expected. Late Thursday night into Friday, another shortwave is expected to cross the northern Plains, bringing more widespread chances for rain and thunderstorms to the region. The severe threat remains minimal, but this COULD bring some relief to drought- stricken areas of western Nebraska. Low rain chances linger on Saturday, but overall things will trend drier and warmer for the Memorial Day weekend as upper level ridging returns to the north/central Plains. After almost a week of near to below- normal temperatures, 80s are expected to return for Sunday-Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions favored at KGRI through TAF period. MVFR conditions possible at KEAR around end of TAF period. Scattered showers currently impacting KGRI/KEAR will come to an end over the next hour. Then a break in rain is expected through midnight, with rain showers first impacting KEAR then KGRI through sunrise. Low VFR conditions and lowered (VFR) visibility is possible in these showers). During the mid-late morning hours, low VFR to MVFR clouds move into the area. The exact coverage/location of this is uncertain, but MVFR clouds are more likely at KEAR than KGRI. Thus have opted to include a MVFR ceilings group at KEAR and not KGRI. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Stump DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Davis  811 FXUS63 KLSX 201732 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1232 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler temperatures are expected through Friday. - There will be several chances for showers and thunderstorms over the upcoming Memorial Day weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Temperatures have dropped into the 50s early this morning behind the cold front that has now moved south of Missouri and Illinois. There are scattered showers that continue to form to the north of the front by low level frontogenesis that will gradually move south of the CWA through mid-late morning. The HREF is then showing a short wave ridge building over the Midwest later today into tonight which will keep the forecast dry into early Thursday. At the same time a large surface high will slowly move east across the Great Lakes causing the surface winds to slowly shift from northerly to easterly by tomorrow. Model guidance is showing that we will likely stay mainly cloudy through tomorrow, with lower ceilings in the southern half of the CWA today which favors cooler temperatures. Highs will likely stay in the 60s today and range from the mid 60s to mid 70s on Thursday. Britt && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 After the brief dry period on Wednesday night and Thursday, the chances for showers and thunderstorms increases over the Memorial Day weekend into next week as the LREF is showing southwesterly upper flow over Missouri and Illinois. Model guidance is consistent with a trough moving across the area late Thursday night into Friday which is when the LREF has 60-90% of its members are producing rain over the area. This is also the period when PWATS will be the highest (near 2.0") and WPC has highlighted the southern half of the CWA in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. There are lower chances on Friday night, but two or three more shortwaves will move across the area over the weekend bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms the rest of the weekend. At this point, the LREF/NBM members are keeping the better chances (40-60%) over southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois which is closer to where a surface front will be during the extended weekend. Temperatures will start to warm back up over the weekend, though as pointed out by the previous discussion, the NBM is on the warmest side of guidance. While upper heights will be building over the area which favors the warmer temperatures, they will be tempered by the clouds and rain chances which should keep highs in the 70s. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Ceilings will slowly rise today, with bases generally 3-5 kft AGL. Winds will veer from the north to the east/northeast through the period. Gosselin && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  849 FXUS63 KMQT 201733 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 133 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler than normal temperatures through the rest of the work week. Frost is possible the next few nights. - A dry work week is followed up by light rain this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 246 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 The going forecast remains on track this morning as GOES-East Nighttime Microphysics RGB imagery shows some pockets of low stratus and some high cirrus but otherwise unimpactful weather over the UP. RAP analysis shows expansive 1024 mb high pressure centered over the eastern Dakotas yet covering most of the north-central CONUS. Anywhere not affected by low stratus will see efficient radiational cooling tonight with decreasing northwest winds in addition to the ongoing 850mb cold advection. This 1-2 punch of cooling will bring lows near freezing this morning for most. While a slackening pressure gradient from the approaching high and low pressure over Quebec getting further away will result in decreasing winds, the long fetch of the NW winds will keep wave heights in excess of 4 feet for the nearshore Lake Superior waters adjacent to Alger and Luce counties into this afternoon, which may be hazardous to small craft. For the week ahead, with the only precipitation chances in the forecast having low impacts associated with them, the two biggest areas of impactful weather will be the potential for particularly dry weather this work week and frost impacting the beginning of growing season. With high pressure dominating the forecast for the rest of the work week, RHs will fall in the afternoon hours, with some spots seeing minimum RHs Thursday and Friday well into the mid- 20s. Thankfully, light winds mainly gusting under 15 kt will limit any wildfire concerns. With Friday beginning frost/freeze headlines, the LREF has increased chances of the interior UP seeing sub-36 degree lows Friday morning, now as high as 55%. A hard freeze is not expected as chances of sub-freezing lows sub-10%. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Amended at 246 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 High pressure and dry air building in from the west behind the previous day's cold front sets up a quiet pattern for the remainder of the work week as it slides over the Great Lakes region. Precipitation does not return until this weekend as a trough over the Plains pivots northeast over the region. Details around this are murky, but impacts likely will be low as instability is nil and probabilities of exceeding 0.5 inches of rain in 24 hours holds at 10% of less. Drier and warmer weather is progged to return early next week with high pressure possibly returning. This quieter period is captured in the CPC precipitation outlooks with near normal for the 6-10 day and slightly below normal for the 8-14 day. Despite zonal flow developing aloft by this afternoon, low level CAA into today yields temps between 5-15F below normal. Lows in the 30s to low 40s this morning will only warm into the 40s to mid 50s for most today, save for a few spots reaching low 60s south-central. Temps dip even lower tonight into the upper 20s to upper 30s. While it is still early for growing season, some patchy frost is possible tonight and widespread frost is anticipated Wednesday night. A ridge over the southeast CONUS begins to build late week while a trough deepens over the Rockies. This strengthens southerly flow and WAA increasing temps closer to normal by this weekend with highs in the 50s and 60s and lows in the 40s to low 50s. Patchy frost is possible again Thursday night, but no headlines are planned yet this week given slow start to growing season. In the wake of the weekend system, a strong mid level ridge looks to build over the Midwest, favoring the warming trend to continue into next week. CPC temperature outlooks both show the UP under ~65-70% chances for above normal temps to close out the month. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 132 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the TAF period. Light northerly winds will become northeasterly this evening and southeasterly on Thursday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Amended at 246 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Winds over the east settle below 20 kts this morning and likely remain sub-20 kts across the lake through Friday as high pressure persists over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada. Significant wave heights of 4-6 ft over the east settle below 4 ft by this afternoon and likely remain 4 ft or less the remainder of the forecast period. This light wind pattern may even persist into next week with no significant systems on the horizon this weekend and high pressure favored to return next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MIZ006. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ UPDATE... DISCUSSION...GS/77 AVIATION...RM MARINE...GS/77  802 FXUS64 KLZK 201732 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1232 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 144 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 -Chances for showers/thunderstorms remains for western into northwest sections through the morning hours -Drier later this afternoon into early Thursday -Better chances for more organized convection later Thursday into midday Friday -Unsettled pattern will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms forecast into early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 144 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Most of the convection has moved SE of the state early this Wed morning...with mostly dry conditions ongoing. However...the main SFC boundary remains west/NW of the state where the lower dewpts are noted. An upper wave was drifting into the state early this morning...with some new convection developing along the AR/OK border near/south of FSM just ahead of the main SFC boundary. Expect some additional convection to continue to develop in this same region ...and areas just north into the morning hrs. Coverage of convection looks to decrease by later this morning into the afternoon hrs as the upper wave moves east of AR...and upper ridging develops overhead. However...keep some mention of convection for central/SRN sections late this afternoon into the evening hrs as the SFC front/dewpt boundary drops further south into the state. POPs will increase back north on Thu into Fri as the SFC front lifts back north as a warm front. A new upper shortwave will also lift NE over the region around this same timeframe...aiding in providing lift for more organized/widespread convection Thu night/Fri morning. While the threat for seeing SVR Wx remains low at this time...mainly due to timing of the Thu night/Fri system...there may still be an isolated strong/SVR TSRA during this time frame. Locally heavy rainfall may also be seen...which may lead to an isolated flash flood threat. There will be a brief lull in the convection Fri afternoon/evening...but an unsettled pattern will persist through the Memorial Day weekend into next week. Flow aloft will persist from the SW over the region...and upper waves will pass overhead throughout the period. This will keep chances for precip elevated pretty much every day through the end of the forecast. Chances for SVR Wx look uncertain...and will depend on details specific to each day regarding instability and SHR. Several rounds of rainfall may be seen during this period...but exact placement of heaviest amounts also remains uncertain at this time. Even so...some areas will continue to see beneficial rainfall that should help improve the ongoing drought conditions. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 MVFR/IFR will prevail through most of the TAF cycle. Some brief periods of LIFR and patchy fog are possible across southern terminals overnight, but confidence is too to place in TAFs at this time. Light winds will persist and be out of the northeast through the rest of today, then light and variable before veering to the southeast on Thursday. Ceilings will gradually rise on Thursday afternoon but likely remain in the MVFR category. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 59 78 63 78 / 10 10 80 80 Camden AR 64 81 64 81 / 10 40 90 70 Harrison AR 57 74 61 75 / 10 40 70 80 Hot Springs AR 62 79 64 80 / 20 30 100 60 Little Rock AR 62 79 64 79 / 20 20 60 70 Monticello AR 65 81 66 81 / 20 30 80 80 Mount Ida AR 63 77 64 79 / 10 50 90 50 Mountain Home AR 57 75 61 75 / 10 20 80 80 Newport AR 60 79 63 79 / 0 10 80 80 Pine Bluff AR 63 81 65 81 / 20 40 70 70Russellville AR 62 79 63 79 / 20 30 60 80 Searcy AR 59 79 62 79 / 10 10 70 80 Stuttgart AR 63 80 66 80 / 10 20 90 80 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION..62 AVIATION...76  896 FXUS65 KABQ 201735 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1135 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1121 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 - A marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and large hail exists over southeastern NM this afternoon and early evening. - Strong gusty easterly winds pushing into Santa Fe and ABQ this morning will taper off this morning. - The threat of rapid fire spread from any new spark favored to return to the middle Rio Grande Valley and surrounding highlands this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 127 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Southwesterly flow aloft with embedded small disturbances and mid to upper level moisture producing broken skies remains aloft over NM this morning. With a stubbornly slow moving upper level trough still over UT/AZ, these southwesterly winds will remain thru western NM thru the short term period. A moist continental airmass that pushed into eastern NM behind yesterday's cold front remains entrenched and has pushed westward thru the gaps of the central mountain chain bringing gusty easterly/southeasterly winds into Santa Fe and ABQ. This airmass has shunted the intrusion of a maritime tropical airmass from the Gulf southward into the TX Big Bend region. This is favoring the shallow more stable continental airmass persisting over eastern NM thru much of the today. A blanket of low stratus is beginning to develop along the eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristo's on GeoColor satellite imagery this hour and is favored to expand further over eastern NM. Some the soupier Gulf moisture will try to work its way northward however, pushing up the Pecos River Valley into southeastern NM, perhaps further north along the central highlands as well. This is favoring a scenario where higher convective instability existing along the south-central highlands and eastern slopes of the south-central mountains with lesser instability further north and east across eastern NM. Coupled with strong southwesterly vertical wind shear marking 45-50kts of 0-6km bulk shear, this is yielding a marginal risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon. There is considerable uncertainty regarding how far the soupier low-level Gulf moisture can intrude northward and how entrenched the low stratus blanket will be thru east-central and northeastern NM, especially given the higher level cloud coverage tonight. Simply put, the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms favors southeastern NM, with lower chances as one goes northward towards I-40. Lighter showers mixed with drizzle is favored further north than that toward the CO border. Thursday sees a similar set up as today with higher moisture pushing back west thru the gaps of the central mountain chain into the Rio Grande Valley in the morning before retreating toward TX in the afternoon, replaced by drier southwesterly winds advancing from western NM. The aforementioned boundary between the interior moist continental airmass and soupier maritime tropical airmass from the Gulf becomes rather diffuse with southerly winds through far eastern NM. While another round of low clouds with light drizzle is favored over portions of eastern NM Thursday morning, this will quickly burn off with chances for scattered afternoon thunderstorms favoring development along a sharpening dryline. Any thunderstorm activity will track northeastward toward the TX/OK Panhandles. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 127 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Low level moisture across eastern NM will advance back west a few counties deep from TX Thursday night into Friday morning. This will beshort-lived before the stalled upper level H5 trough finally treks eastward over CO. This will bring drier westerly flow advancing all the way through the NM/TX line Friday afternoon, shutting down precipitation chances. A cold front will back south and west thru eastern NM Friday night into Saturday morning behind the departing upper level trough. This will return increased low- level moisture to eastern NM once again as a ridge of high pressure begins to develop over the AZ/NM this weekend. Afternoon thunderstorm activity will favor eastern areas Saturday and Sunday with drier conditions along and west of the central mountain chain. Convective outflow will try to push low-level moisture further west by Monday allowing for a brief expansion of thunderstorm activity into the Rio Grande Valley toward the Continental Divide. Thereafter, an upper level trough over the Great Basin region will bring strengthening dry southwesterly flow into the Desert Southwest. The increase in shear overriding the residual low-level moisture across NM would favor strong to severe thunderstorm activity across the forecast area Tuesday afternoon. Drier conditions punch further east across NM by next Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Areas of MVFR cigs prevail behind a backdoor cold front across eastern NM at mid day, but improvement to VFR is forecast at KROW by 20Z. KROW may be impacted by MVFR conditions in thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening, but low probabilities at this time. High probabilities exist for MVFR conditions in low stratus/fog across eastern NM tonight into Thursday morning, with low probabilities for IFR conditions. Elsewhere, VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist. Gusty winds are forecast through the period and the east canyon wind at KABQ is forecast to come back for several hours beginning around 03Z. However, gusts are forecast to remain below Airport Weather Warning threshold. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 127 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Elevated fire weather with breezy dry southwesterly winds over western NM with higher moisture and excellent recoveries alongside southeasterly winds over eastern NM remains today and Thursday. The Rio Grande Valley will see higher moisture push in thru the gaps of the central mountain chain this morning and tonight, mixed out by dry southwesterlies in the afternoon. Afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity will favor eastern NM as well, with the strongest thunderstorms favoring southeastern portions of the area. Drier westerlies advance eastward toward TX Friday afternoon, replaced by another cold front from CO thru eastern NM bringing a return of low-level moisture and good to excellent recoveries Saturday. Daily rounds of slower moving afternoon thunderstorm activity will favor areas along the central mountain chain Saturday and Sunday with gusty outflow winds pushing moisture westward into the Rio Grande Valley and Continental Divide Monday. Thus Monday is favored to see the most westward coverage of afternoon thunderstorm activity. Wetting footprints will be relatively small until Tuesday when faster storm motions will be favored. Drier southwesterlies advance back thru western and central NM Tuesday and Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 76 41 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 73 34 75 35 / 5 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 74 40 75 41 / 5 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 74 36 77 36 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 72 40 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 77 39 77 40 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 75 42 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 78 49 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 74 44 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 79 39 79 39 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 84 42 83 42 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 66 34 69 34 / 5 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 73 49 74 50 / 20 10 5 0 Pecos........................... 70 42 74 41 / 30 30 10 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 69 41 70 40 / 20 10 5 0 Red River....................... 59 35 60 34 / 20 10 10 0 Angel Fire...................... 65 31 66 29 / 30 20 20 0 Taos............................ 74 40 74 38 / 20 10 5 0 Mora............................ 66 42 70 41 / 30 30 20 0 Espanola........................ 80 46 80 46 / 20 10 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 73 46 75 46 / 20 10 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 77 44 78 44 / 20 10 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 83 54 81 54 / 5 5 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 84 53 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 87 51 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 85 51 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 87 48 85 48 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 85 51 83 51 / 0 5 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 86 47 84 48 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 86 50 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 86 47 85 48 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 80 52 80 52 / 5 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 85 52 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 89 54 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 77 48 76 48 / 10 10 0 0 Tijeras......................... 78 49 78 49 / 5 10 0 0 Edgewood........................ 77 46 78 46 / 10 10 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 79 39 79 39 / 10 10 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 69 44 74 45 / 30 20 5 0 Mountainair..................... 79 46 77 47 / 0 10 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 78 46 77 46 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 81 53 79 54 / 0 5 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 75 50 71 52 / 10 10 10 0 Capulin......................... 58 41 68 41 / 20 50 40 20 Raton........................... 64 42 72 41 / 40 50 30 10 Springer........................ 65 44 75 41 / 30 40 30 10 Las Vegas....................... 63 43 73 42 / 30 40 10 0 Clayton......................... 61 47 71 48 / 30 50 50 30 Roy............................. 60 46 73 46 / 40 50 20 10 Conchas......................... 68 50 82 49 / 60 40 20 10 Santa Rosa...................... 68 49 80 47 / 60 30 10 5 Tucumcari....................... 70 51 81 52 / 60 30 20 20 Clovis.......................... 69 51 79 52 / 50 20 30 20 Portales........................ 70 52 80 52 / 50 20 30 20 Fort Sumner..................... 73 51 83 50 / 60 20 20 10 Roswell......................... 80 55 87 55 / 40 10 20 10 Picacho......................... 78 50 82 53 / 40 10 10 0 Elk............................. 81 48 79 51 / 20 10 10 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...11  880 FXUS65 KVEF 201735 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1035 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warming trend continues through Memorial Day Weekend, with afternoon highs climbing to 6 to 8 degrees above-normal. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday. Today will be the coolest day of the forecast period as heights rise over the region in the wake of last weekend's windy trough. The Desert Southwest will remain situated between an eastern Pacific area of high pressure to the west and persistent troughing in the central CONUS to the east. As a result, expect occasional breezy afternoons as shortwave troughs ride along our northwest flow aloft. HeatRisk will peak Saturday through Monday, with widespread Minor (Level 1 on a scale of 0 to 4), and pockets of Moderate (Level 2) in the lower desert valleys such as Death Valley, Moapa Valley, and the Colorado River Valley. Increased outdoor activity can be expected with the holiday weekend, so people are encouraged to bring along with them plenty of water, sunscreen, and take frequent breaks in the shade and/or air conditioning. There is a continued signal that unsettled weather returns for the middle of next week, but details are murky at this time. Stay tuned to the forecast if you have travel or outdoor recreation plans. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package... Northeast wind under 10 kts becoming southeast by mid afternoon. Winds will shift to the typical southwest direction after sunset. East winds will develop mid morning and become more southeasterly during the afternoon. VFR conditions can be expected through the period, with a few scattered high clouds with bases AOA 15kft AGL moving in after 00Z Thursday. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Gusty northerly winds will continue in the Colorado River Valley again today, with gusts of 20 to 25 knots expected at KIFP and KEED. Elsewhere, winds will generally remain under 10 knots through Thursday and winds will be much lighter down the Colorado River Valley on Thursday. VFR conditions will prevail areawide, with a few scattered high clouds with bases AOA 15kft AGL moving from north to south across the region late this afternoon through Thursday morning. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Soulat AVIATION...Czyzyk For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  977 FXUS63 KIWX 201737 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 137 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and drier today into Thursday with highs only in the 60s. - Next chance for rain and a few storms arrive Friday. - Gradual warming with highs in the 70s with periods of showers and thunderstorms this weekend into the beginning of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 336 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Cold front has just about pushed completely through the area overnight with a few light sprinkles accompanying the boundary. A trace of precipitation was received here at the weather office with the showers. Today will run about 20 degrees cooler in most areas with drier and cooler airmass with ridging pushing in behind the front today. Dew points will go from the current values in the 50s to the 30s and 40s by this evening. Breezy to gusty conditions will prevail today and will be messaging hazardous beach conditions possible along Lake Michigan shoreline areas through this evening. High temperatures today through Friday will only get into the mid to upper 60s across the area. Perhaps a few locations may see the low 70s by Friday. Lows overnight tonight and again on Friday morning will drop mainly into the 40s. A slow moving shortwave moves northeastward on Friday within the southwesterly flow on the backside of the ridging that will slide eastward. This will increase chances for rain showers and even some embedded afternoon/evening thundershowers. This activity will continue into the weekend with periods of showers and afternoon thundershowers into the beginning of next week with increasing temperatures due to thermal ridging over the region. Highs will gradually increase Saturday through the middle of next week with highs in the 70s Saturday through Monday, a few areas will flirty with the lower 80s Monday before warming further with highs into the 80s for most locations on Tuesday and Wednesday. At this time, the expectation will not be for a complete washout this holiday weekend but with convective showers it will be hard to pin down the exact timing and locations that do receive them. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 137 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 High pressure passes by to the north between this afternoon and most of Thursday allowing mostly northerly winds to become northeast and easterly winds through the period. This allows the moisture to trend drier and for our clouds to break up and thin out becoming mostly clear by Thursday morning. It's not out of the realm of possibility that FWA sees a sprinkle in the first hour or two of this taf period before we dry out. It is possible that we end up with around 20 kt gusts at SBN this afternoon or around sunrise tomorrow, but am much more confident in 10 kts sustained winds so will with that for now as opposed to gusts. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Andersen AVIATION...Roller  969 FXUS64 KEPZ 201737 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1137 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 PM MDT Wed May 20 2026 - Dry, southwest winds continue each afternoon through the work week. Near normal temperatures for mid May. - Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms early next week, focused mostly over the high terrain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 PM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Moisture out of central Texas continues to hang alongside the Franklin Mountains on Wednesday, with dewpoint temperatures reaching the 50s in eastern Hudspeth and Otero counties. This very shallow moisture reached the Franklin/Organ/San Andres ranges and mostly stalled due to this terrain. Stagnant upper low over Southern California and weak lee low formation across central New Mexico will resume southwest flow across most of the region again this afternoon, quickly mixing this moisture out and partially pushing it back east. Mesoanalysis shows a weak MCV over northern Chihuahua this morning, which will track north into far west Texas later this evening. This will lead to additional lifting and more convective activity to our south than previously forecast. Any storms that form will be mostly low-QPF and virga showers due to dry low levels. Main concern will be strong outflow winds indicated by "inverted-V" sounding profiles. HRRR shows a wide swath of stronger outflow winds and blowing dust moving north out of Mexico, reaching the Rio Grande valley around the 4-5 PM timeframe, which will be worth monitoring. Dryline doesn't make much of a westward advance Thursday and Friday, leading to a dry forecast area wide. Temperatures over the next few days will be near normal for mid-May, with lowland highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s. Continued afternoon winds out of the southwest, generally 10 to 20 mph. Weak upper low over Baja California will make a slow progression later this week, likely passing over the El Paso region this weekend. Meager moisture content will lead to poor, very isolated rain chances. Rain chances Saturday and Sunday will be almost completely limited to the high terrain, which even there is low (20-30%). Otherwise, no notable changes to winds or temperatures. Should be a pleasant Memorial day holiday for most. Progressive flow pattern next week will allow for more favorable moisture transport and synoptic lifting, which could lead to better storm coverage across Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas around the Monday-Wednesday timeframe. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Breezy SW wind across S NM and W TX this afternoon 200-240 at 10-15 knots with peak gusts up to 25 knots across SW NM. Skies FEW-SCT110, SCT-BKN250. Isolated TSRA across northern Chihuahua approaching KELP/KLRU after 21Z this afternoon. Very spotty -TSRA possible, with strong outflow winds. BLDU moving north out of Mexico may lead to temporary 30-knot gusts and visibility 2-4 miles at KELP between 22-02Z. Will amend TAF if necessary. Lighter wind AOB 08 knots overnight, with skies SCT-BKN250. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1200 PM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Elevated fire weather conditions for Southwest New Mexico on Thursday with southwest winds 10 to 15 mph and Min RH 8 to 14%. Winds are forecast to remain below Red Flag criteria. Skies will be mostly clear with only a few passing high clouds. Typical mid May temperatures. Very similar weather on Friday. Higher moisture across Southeast New Mexico will improve fire conditions for Lincoln National Forest this weekend. Min RH will be in the 20-30% range, with good overnight recoveries. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible aroundCloudcroft/Ruidoso Saturday/Sunday, leading to a risk of new lightning starts and gusty outflow winds. Gila NF will remain quite dry with no rain chances until early next week. Current fuel status shows ERCs reaching the 90th percentile and will remain around that thresholds through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 63 87 63 89 / 30 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 55 82 55 84 / 30 20 10 0 Las Cruces 56 85 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 58 85 56 87 / 10 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 42 63 42 65 / 10 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 57 85 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 51 77 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 56 88 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 54 84 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 63 86 63 87 / 20 0 0 0 Dell City 54 87 54 89 / 30 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 61 90 60 91 / 30 20 10 0 Loma Linda 57 80 57 81 / 30 0 0 0 Fabens 60 88 60 90 / 30 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 58 85 57 86 / 10 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 64 86 63 88 / 10 0 0 0 Jornada Range 55 85 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 56 88 54 90 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 61 88 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 57 84 56 86 / 10 0 0 0 Mayhill 47 75 48 77 / 10 10 0 10 Mescalero 46 73 46 76 / 10 0 0 0 Timberon 43 71 43 73 / 20 0 0 0 Winston 45 77 46 78 / 0 0 0 10 Hillsboro 55 83 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 52 85 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 46 78 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 49 81 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 49 84 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 48 79 47 81 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 52 80 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 54 84 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 55 84 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 54 84 54 84 / 0 10 0 10 Cloverdale 54 78 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt/41-Zotter  054 FXUS61 KRLX 201739 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 139 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Slight risk for severe and excessive rainfall this afternoon. Risk for more robust convection does appear to be displaced a slightly farther southeast than morning guidance due to morning convection. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will pose a primary threat of damaging wind gusts and localized flash flooding. 2.) A brief reprieve from the active weather is expected across northern areas on Thursday, with post-frontal temperatures dropping significantly into the upper 60s to low 70s. 3.) The frontal boundary lifts back north on Friday, bringing renewed chances for heavy rainfall and localized high water issues. Unsettled weather persists through the Memorial Day weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Showers and thunderstorms from this morning have introduced uncertainty regarding the extent of atmospheric recovery across northeast Kentucky and southeast Ohio this afternoon. Consequently, convective initiation is anticipated to be displaced slightly further southeast than initially suggested by earlier high-resolution guidance. Despite modest mid-level lapse rates, ongoing insolation and moisture pooling along and ahead of an approaching cold front will yield moderate instability, with Mixed-Layer CAPE values increasing to 1200-1800 J/kg. Deep layer shear remains relatively weak, generally between 20 and 30 KTs, which will favor multicell clusters and perhaps some transient supercells. The primary severe hazard this afternoon will be damaging downburst winds, driven by steep low-level lapse rates and elevated Downdraft CAPE (DCAPE). Gusts exceeding 40 to 45 mph could result in localized tree damage, particularly given the fully leafed canopy with more substantial damage possible in any true severe gusts. In addition to the wind threat, localized flash flooding remains a concern. Flow parallel to the frontal boundary will encourage the training of convective cells. The environment is characterized by deep warm cloud depths of 10-11kft and precipitable water values climbing to around 1.7 inches, which exceeds the 90th percentile for late May. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are probable in the heaviest cores. Due to largely dry antecedent conditions, much of the region can tolerate up to 2.5 inches of rain over a short duration. However, areas that received heavy rainfall this morning, specifically Greenup and Carter counties in northeast Kentucky, as well as urban centers and steep, V-shaped hollows, will be susceptible to rapid runoff and flash flooding. A Flash Flood Warning or two may be required for the most persistent downpours, but the localized nature of the threat precludes the need for a broader Flash Flood Watch at this time. KEY MESSAGE 2... The cold front will push southeastward tonight, causing remaining showers and thunderstorms to become confined to the southern coalfields and southwest Virginia Thursday morning. Subsidence and a cooler, drier airmass will overspread the northern half of the forecast area, providing a temporary dry (or mainly dry) period. Post-frontal cold advection will result in a notable temperature drop, with daytime highs on Thursday struggling to reach 70 degrees F across the lowlands, which is well below normal. KEY MESSAGE 3... The aforementioned boundary will stall to the south and lift back north as a warm front on Friday, placing the region firmly within the unsettled warm sector. This will mark the beginning of a wet and active Memorial Day weekend. Friday is expected to be the wettest day of the period as isentropic ascent increases over the boundary. Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through Monday, driven by shortwave energy riding along the periphery of a Bermuda high. Depending on where the heaviest rain falls today, antecedent soil conditions may become compromised, leading to a conditional risk for high water and flash flooding Friday into the weekend with any additional heavy rainfall. Widespread severe weather is not currently anticipated through the holiday weekend, as atmospheric instability is forecast to remain generally weak, with only periodic upticks in deep-layer shear. Unseasonably warm temperatures will return by Sunday and Monday, although values will remain below the record heat observed earlier this week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A mix of VFR and localized IFR to LIFR conditions is expected this afternoon and evening. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of an approaching cold front. Direct impacts from thunderstorms may produce brief periods of IFR visibility and gusty, erratic winds, primarily between 18Z and 02Z. Outside of convection, southwesterly winds of 5 to 10 KTs will prevail ahead of the front. Following the frontal passage tonight, winds will shift to the northwest and north. Low-level moisture trapped beneath the developing subsidence inversion will likely result in widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings across the region, especially after 06Z. Patchy dense fog is also possible in areas that receive heavy rainfall and manage to clear out, particularly in the deeper river valleys. Conditions will slowly improve to VFR from north to south after 14Z Thursday as drier air works into the region. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low for convective impact timing, otherwise medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions associated with convection will vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M L H H H M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H M H M L H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR conditions conditions continue southeast Thursday afternoon. Brief IFR is also possible at times Friday through the weekend with showers and/or thunderstorms. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP AVIATION...JP  988 FXUS63 KBIS 201737 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1237 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low to medium chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms across western and north central North Dakota late this afternoon through the evening, then medium to high chances across the western half of the state Thursday through Friday. - Temperatures remain closer to normal through Friday, then warm to well above normal by the end of the holiday weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 An upper level wave continues to move across the north central no rain has been reported so far. Chances for showers will increase this afternoon. No major updates are needed at this time as the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 1034 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 An upper level wave moves across the northwest this morning mainly with sprinkles expected. No major updates needed at this time, the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 649 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 The forecast remains in good shape. Temperatures in the Frost Advisory have mostly risen into the upper 30s to mid 40s, but there are still a handful of locations in the mid 30s scattered throughout the advisory, so will just let it continue for now. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 438 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Early morning surface analysis shows high pressure from the Red River through Lower Missouri River Valleys, with a low pressure trough along the Alberta-Saskatchewan border into northeast Montana. Flow aloft is turning more zonal as a transient mid level ridge precedes a shortwave digging down the Canadian Rockies. The placement of the surface high has allowed temperatures to fall to near or below freezing across the eastern half of the state. Meanwhile, an increase in southerly return flow is keeping temperatures above freezing in the western half of the state, except in a few low- lying, sheltered spots. The Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory remain in good shape. A weak shortwave that appears to be embedded in the mid level ridge is producing light showers aloft, little of which is reaching the ground on account of a very dry low level layer of air. A slight chance of sprinkles remains in the forecast as this feature crosses northern North Dakota this morning. A southeastward advancement of the upstream surface trough will squeeze the pressure gradient over central North Dakota later this morning and afternoon, increasing winds to near 30 mph and gusting to 40 mph. But temperatures are forecast to be much warmer today, with highs ranging from the mid 60s east to mid 70s west. This could lead to near-critical fire weather conditions in parts of western and central North Dakota this afternoon, but the lowest RH of around 20 percent in the southwest is not forecast to overlap with the strongest winds between Highways 83 and 281. By late afternoon today, mid level DCVA is forecast to spread into western North Dakota ahead of a closed low circulation spinning over southwest Saskatchewan. At the surface, a low pressure with an attendant warm front to the east, dryline to the south, and cold front to the southwest is forecast to enter northwest North Dakota at a similar time. CAMs are in agreement on widespread shower and thunderstorm activity initiating closer to the cold front in eastern Montana this afternoon, but also indicate a lower degree of coverage developing into western and north central North Dakota by early evening. There is potential for up to 500 J/kg of CAPE to build just ahead of the dryline, but models are fairly consistent in keeping the buoyancy displaced downstream of stronger shear, and HRRR/RAP soundings show a skinny CAPE profile with equilibrium levels only approaching 25,000 ft. Stronger convection is therefore highly unlikely late this afternoon and evening, but the inverted-v thermodynamic profiles could support gusty winds. Showers and storms are forecast to gradually dissipate late this evening into tonight, which will have milder low temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s. On Thursday, the mid/upper level trough axis is forecast to reorient itself and deepen from southern Saskatchewan to northern Utah, inducing lee cyclogenesis with an inverted surface trough extending northward through the western Dakotas. The inverted surface trough will be the focal axis for high chances of showers Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. There is still some uncertainty on the placement of the inverted trough and associated maximum QPF, but the range has narrowed in scope to as far west as the Montana border and as far east as a line roughly from the Turtle Mountains to the Standing Rock Reservation. The NBM places its averaged maximum QPF axis from around Hettinger to Stanley, with high chances of exceeding 0.25" and low to medium chances of exceeding 0.5". But embedded thunderstorms along a ribbon of up to 1000 J/kg CAPE could produce locally higher amounts, as indicated by the HREF localized probability-matched mean QPF showing pockets of 1-2". Training convection, high deep-layer RH, and precipitable water approaching 75th-90th climatological percentile values near 1 inch could also contribute to enhanced rainfall rates on a localized basis. The mid/upper trough is forecast to pivot into the High Plains on Friday with two distinct vort maxima over southeast Saskatchewan and northeast Colorado, respectively. Numerous showers are likely to persist along the inverted surface trough on Friday, which may only shift slightly to the east. But there is a much lower risk for thunderstorms on Friday as guidance is showing little to no CAPE. There are several potential outcomes for multi-day rain totals depending on how much or little the inverted surface trough shifts around. If it remains nearly stationary all the way through Friday, there could be a narrow corridor of +1 inch amounts surrounded by widespread amounts under a quarter of an inch. If the inverted trough does shift eastward, there could be a broader area or perhaps two separate areas of around half an inch. The latest NBM shows a narrow axis of medium chances (50 to 60 percent) for exceeding half an inch of rain Thursday through Friday night from Hettinger to just west of Minot, with low chances (10 to 20 percent) for exceeding 1 inch. Temperatures will remain closer to normal Thursday and Friday, although showers and associated cloud cover could cause some deviations. Friday in particular looks like a day where a large portion of the area could see cooler daytime temperatures under persistent clouds and shower activity. Overnight temperatures are forecast to remain well above freezing, with only parts of southwest North Dakota having a low chance of falling into the mid 30s Friday night. A significant warm up continues to be strongly favored by ensemble guidance through the holiday weekend as there is now increasing ensemble agreement on mean ridging over the central CONUS. The NBM shows moderate to low spread given the forecast time range with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s on Sunday and around 80 to 90 degrees on Memorial Day. Chances for rain under this pattern are low, but there could be some shortwaves traversing the top of the ridge over the Northern Plains before the ridge becomes more amplified. Above normal temperatures of highs in the mid 70s to upper 80s are favored to continue through the middle of next week, with increasing uncertainty in the eastward progression of the central CONUS ridge as a stronger wave digs down from the Gulf of Alaska. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Winds will remain out of the south this afternoon with showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two possible across the west. VFR conditions will persist through the period with winds picking up tomorrow out of the southeast. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan/Johnson DISCUSSION...Hollan AVIATION...Johnson  008 FXUS64 KLCH 201738 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1238 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - An unsettled pattern will be in place into the Memorial Day Holiday weekend as the southern jet stream brings a series of upper level disturbances to work with a very moist air mass. - The showers and thunderstorms that develop will have the potential to produce high rain rates and there is a risk of heavy rainfall and flooding into early next week. - All interests in flood prone low-lying areas or flood prone urban poor drainage area, along with those along stream and river basins should keep aware of the latest flood risk forecasts. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Surface analysis this afternoon shows a cold front draped from the New England to the Ark-La-Tex, while aloft, the forecast area remains situated beneath a moist SWrly flow, between troughing to the west and ridging to the east. Said cold front will slowly make its way towards CENLA today, where it will become stationary through tomorrow before lifting north as a warm front on Friday. At the same time, the next in a series of upper level disturbances will pass overhead in the flow aloft, interacting with the front as well as the very moist airmass overhead to providing ample support for convection. While the front retreats north on Friday, the pattern aloft will remain unstable with more shortwaves/disturbances passing overhead Friday through early next week, interacting with the moisture rich atmosphere overhead as they do so. This will, unsurprisingly, keep an unsettled and wet pattern in place through at least Memorial Day or possible a bit longer. Area radar this afternoon shows an area of light stratiform rain across the lower TX Coast into the coastal waters, while scattered showers/storms are over south LA. Guidance depicts this stratiform rainfall tapering off through the next couple of hours, while the storms over south LA begin to amplify and expand in coverage while spreading inland. While this convection will fortunately not bring a risk for severe weather, it will have the potential to produce very high rainfall rates within a short period of time, possibly leading to area of localized flash flooding. WPC has outlined the entire CWA within a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall today, as a result, with localized amounts of 1-2 inches of rain possible this afternoon/evening. Tomorrow through the Memorial Day holiday we can pretty much rinse and repeat this forecast, as this unsettled and moisture rich pattern continues. PWATs will continue to run very high, near the 90th percentile, through the forecast period, allowing any showers and storms that develop to produce high rainfall rates within a short period of time. WPC has outlined the CWA in either a Marginal and/or Slight Risk for excessive rainfall each day through Sunday, as a result. Tomorrow through Sunday, forecasted rainfall totals are expected to range from around 2-6" (total for the entire period) however, locally higher amounts up to 10" are possible, which is where flooding issues would come in to play. Adding Monday into the mix, we could see an additional 1-3" of rain, as a more robust upper level shortwave becomes situated over the Ark-La-Tex for a brief period. Temperature wise, very little day to day changes are expected as showers/cloud cover will keep highs in the low to mid 80s each day, while a warm and moist airmass will hold overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Messy weather period ahead with a mixture of VFR and MVFR ceilings, periods of reduced VIS, and showers/thunderstorm activity. Now through this evening, convection will spread inland from the Gulf across the I-10 terminals, affecting AEX later in the day. Convection will be mainly heavy rain with few embedded thunderstorms, all capable of reducing VIS as they pass over the terminals. Ceilings will waffle between MVFR and VFR throughout the period. Winds will be mainly light and variable, except in any stronger storms that occur. && .MARINE... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A light to modest southeast to south flow around 5-15 kts and seas around 1-4 feet will persist through the end of the week and into the weekend. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain high through the weekend as well, as a stalled frontal boundary and a series of upper level disturbances produce several waves of precipitation. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A light to moderate southerly flow will continue through the next several days bringing in rich amounts of Gulf moisture. Afternoon Minimum RH values will be around 70 percent or greater each day through the weekend. High chances for daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through the week into early next week as a stalled frontal boundary and a series of upper level disturbances provide waves of precipitation each day. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17 AVIATION...17  139 FXUS61 KPBZ 201740 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 140 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Localized areas of heavy rain possible in northern West Virginia this afternoon and evening. Confidence continues to increase for a wet Memorial Day weekend. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Potential for isolated thunderstorms in northern WV through late afternoon. High precipitation possible in northern West Virginia, however, flooding potential is a low 2) Confidence in soaking rainfall during the Memorial Day weekend continues to increase && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Ongoing rain and cloud cover lends some uncertainty to the amount of destabilization that will be able to occur over our southeastern counties this afternoon. Even though guidance is suggesting moderate instability, there is weak 0-6km which will limit storm organization. Still, there may be a relatively brief window during the mid-to-late afternoon for tall storms to take advantage of marginal DCAPE to produce isolated strong to damaging gusts. If there is hail, it is likely to be small. Most likely area for any severe weather will be Tucker and Southern Preston Counties. The passage of the front should end any severe threat by 00Z. Some very localized instances of heavy rainfall are also possible with these storms. Cloud-layer flow will be largely parallel to the front, which could encourage storm training. Also, expected precipitable water values of 1.5 to 1.6 inches is at the very top of climatology. HREF/REFS max precip potential suggest localized 1.5- 1.7 inch totals are not out of the question in northern West Virginia. Still, 3-hour FFG values are generally between 1.75 - 2.5 inches in this area, and thus anything more than an isolated water issue or two is not expected. KEY MESSAGE 2... The front may waver near the southern reaches of the CWA through Thursday night, keeping occasional rain chances in the forecast, especially south of I-70. The environment favorable for strong convection and heavy rainfall will have departed though, and no major impact from this activity is expected. Memorial Day weekend continues to look quite wet overall. Surface low pressure lifts northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley to our west Friday into Saturday, bringing a boundary north as a warm front pushes a broad inverted trough into our region. This should return anomalously high precipitable water values back north, accompanied by broad isentropic lift. Also during this time, surface high pressure is forecast to be centered over the Upper Great Lakes and New England states. This setup is similar to past events that have generated 2+ inches of rainfall across the local area, though it should be noted that minor deviations (e.g., east-west positioning of the low or strength of the ridge) could result in the axis of heaviest rainfall shifting around (or away from) the local area. Nevertheless, the NBM continues illustrate a 55%-75% chance for at least an inch of 24-hr rainfall accumulation Friday into Saturday (north of Pittsburgh), and a 15%-30% chance for 2+ inches. A second wave of rain is then forecast Sunday into Monday though that one appears a bit more progressive in nature thanks to a potential Great Lakes shortwave that has some forward momentum. NBM probabilities for an inch top out in the 20%-25% range between 12Z Sunday and 12Z Monday. When looking at the total 72-hour period from 12Z Friday to 12Z Monday, the NBM has a 40%-60% chance for 2 inches or more of rain across the majority of the forecast area. Extended machine-learning guidance suggests severe weather chances remain quite low through the weekend, so that aspect is of lesser concern. However, MMEFS river guidance does suggest some potential impact on area rivers by early next week in higher-end precipitation scenarios, with a number of forecast points on the larger rivers potentially reaching action stage. This also suggests that flooding issues on smaller streams and creeks may become an issue in time. It is too early to discuss specifics and forecast details are yet to be solidified, but this signal will warrant monitoring. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to continue into the late afternoon with the passage of a cold front. Expected MVFR to IFR cigs and vis with passing light to moderate showers. The potential for severe storms near a terminal has decreased since the late forecast update. A wind shift to the NW, and eventually N, is also expected after the passage of the front. Some improvement back to MVFR is expected by evening, though a crossing wave along the front could spread a few more showers across the region. Restrictions will likely continue into tonight with a stalled frontal boundary. VFR should return to most airports on Thursday as high pressure briefly builds in from the N, though MGW/LBE could see restrictions continue through late morning. Outlook... Widespread restrictions in rain are expected to overspread the region from S-N Friday into Saturday with a warm front. Some improvement is possible Sunday until a cold front approaches later in the day. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CL/Lupo AVIATION...Hefferan  101 FXUS62 KFFC 201740 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 140 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New 18Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures continue through the wee with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. - Afternoon thunderstorms are possible along and north of the I-85 corridor this afternoon. - Increased rain chances return tomorrow through the weekend, especially across northern and western Georgia. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 456 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s and low 90s again this afternoon, with SW winds at 5-10 mph brining moisture back into the area. As a result, dewpoints across north and central Georgia will increase out ahead of a cold front pushing through the TN river valley area.This will increase our chance for diurnally driven thunderstorm activity during the afternoon and early evening. The best chance for pop up storms appears to be along and north of I-85. A few storms may have gusty winds, frequent lightning and small hail but the threat of severe weather remains low given the lack of shear and any lifting mechanism outside of heating. Storms will die out as the sun sets and temps will fall into the mid 60s again during the overnight hours. Tomorrow looks to be similar, although we're anticipating a wider coverage of showers and thunderstorms across northern GA as the approaching cold front stalls out along the GA/TN border. Like today, the threat for severe weather tomorrow will be low though a few storms could be strong to marginally severe during the late afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 456 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 The summer-like pattern strengthens through the long term outlook as near surface flow turns from northeast, around the coastal low, to the southwest with the building ridge. Moisture increases across the area with 50th percentile PWATs climbing over 1.6 to 1.7 inches by the weekend. As conditions moisten, temperatures will climb into the 80s to near 90F. The modest upper level jet will send shortwave energy across the TN valley through the period. This means PoPs and QPF will be greatest across north and northwest Georgia, decreasing to the south and east. The given thunderstorm mode will be conducive to locally heavy rainfall. It is likely that somewhere in the CWA will see more than 1" of rainfall each day. This, however, will be contrasted by areas which simultaneously receive little to no precipitation. A boom or bust scenario if you will. All that said, it is unlikely that anyone will go without at least some rain once the end of this period concludes. Storm potential through the period remains modest for pulse convection, with instability peaking around 1500 to 2500 J/Kg. A few strong storms cannot be fully ruled out at this time. The main hazards will be gusty winds and frequent lightning, as well as the potential for flash flooding should storm motion be particularly slow. As we get into next week, the upper level ridge experiences a Rossby wave break. This could quickly turn flow out of the northwest. When combining the available moisture, daytime instability, and upper level NW flow, conditions may be primed for a more classic summertime MCS set-up (I'm looking at you summer 2023 0-0). Models, of course, have a hard time realizing these types of scenarios this far out and forecast confidence more than 6-7 days out remains relatively low. Just something to keep an eye out for as we get through Memorial Day. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Showers and thunderstorms popping up mainly across North and West GA this afternoon. So far they have not entered the ATL area TAF sites but they are getting close CSG will see some precip in the next hour or two with precip moving into the ATL area later this afternoon. Winds will stay mainly out of the SW in the 5-10mph range. Will see some stronger gust in and around ant convective activity. Winds will diminish to near calm overnight then back to the SW again Thu. Precip chances should diminish after sunset with another round of afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA again Thu. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Confidence medium to high on all elements. 01 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 92 67 89 66 / 20 20 60 80 Atlanta 89 69 86 68 / 40 40 70 60 Blairsville 85 62 80 61 / 50 40 80 70 Cartersville 89 65 85 66 / 50 50 60 70 Columbus 91 68 90 68 / 40 30 20 20 Gainesville 88 67 85 66 / 40 30 70 90 Macon 91 68 91 68 / 10 10 40 40 Rome 88 63 84 64 / 60 60 60 70 Peachtree City 89 66 87 66 / 40 30 60 60 Vidalia 92 68 92 69 / 0 0 30 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vaughn LONG TERM....SM AVIATION...01  188 FXUS62 KJAX 201741 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 141 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Moderate Risk Of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches through Friday - Daily chances for mainly afternoon thunderstorms will increase this week and Weekend. - Locally Dense Fog Over Inland Southeast Georgia Thursday and Friday mornings. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Moderate Rip Current Risk at NE FL/SE GA beaches - Locally dense fog possible inland late night/early morning hours Sfc high pressure ridge is located from the Carolinas and eastward into the Atlantic with fairly weak easterly flow over the area. Located VWP shows 5-10 kt from sfc to 850 mb. A mid to upper level low was located about 275 miles east of JAX is forecast to lift northwest and north through Thursday morning as a narrow shortwave ridge builds into our forecast area from the west. PWATs remain fairly low at 1 to 1.4 inches or so, but low levels are relatively moist (mean mixing ratio 14g/kg on 12z JAX sounding) with vis imagery showing mainly scattered cumulus clouds. The subsidence inversion at 850 mb and lack of more instability will keep the POPs low today, mainly around 10-20 percent for showers and a t-storm for the inland northeast FL area into the evening hours. If any convective activity forms, it should dissipate by 10 pm. Tonight, mostly clear to occasional partly cloudy with lows in the upper 60s inland to lower 70s coast, with winds slowly diminishing and become more southerly late. Still could be some patchy to areas of fog late tonight, supported by latest HREF guidance. Fog may be locally dense, mainly for inland southeast GA where decoupling looks best tonight. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Daily thunderstorms each afternoon west of I-95. Following a foggy morning, scattered showers and storms will develop in the afternoon and evening across inland locations, generally west of I-95. Inland high temperatures will climb into the lower to mid 90s, wheres coastal temperatures will stay a little cooler in the mid to upper 80s with the help of the Atlantic sea breeze. Precipitation chances increase further on Friday area-wide as southerly flow increases PWATs to 1.75-2.0" and allows the two sea breezes to push inland and interact in a more central location. Convection may linger a little after sunset near the I-75 corridor, but will soon dissipate. Temperatures will remain above normal Friday, with maximum afternoon heat indices approaching the upper 90s for inland northeast FL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... - Hot temperatures continue through the weekend - Increasing chances of showers and storms into and through the upcoming holiday weekend into next week. PWATs continue to increase with southerly flow this weekend, increasing precipitation chances area-wide Saturday and Sunday, but especially over inland southeast GA Saturday. Isolated to scattered storm chances continue into midweek for inland areas, primarily in the afternoons and evenings. Hot temperatures will persist during this period, inland highs in the low 90s, and east coast highs in the mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Scattered to broken cumulus clouds inland areas rest of today which should be mainly confined from JAX to VQQ westward, while coastal TAFs see more clearing behind the sea breeze. Have held off on any VCSH or VCTS based on latest satellite imagery, with thunder chances currently quite low to support a VCTS. Late tonight, a chance of fog and/or stratus at IFR for VQQ and possibly MVFR vsby for GNV. Best fog/stratus chances will occur at VQQ. Rest of the aftn, an easterly wind about 8-12 kt with a few higher gusts expected through 01z or so. Wind will weaken tonight and become near calm inland. East to southeast winds increase by 14-16Z Thursday at about 5-10 kt. && .MARINE... High pressure will be centered to the east northeast this week and through the weekend. Mainly southeast flow will continue through the period with a daily sea breeze near the Atlantic Coast. Winds may meet small craft exercise caution criteria in the late afternoon and evening from Friday through Monday. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip current continues today and likely to stay that way into Friday with surf of about 2-3 ft. Latest buoy readings show east southeast periods of 8-10 seconds of about 2 to 2.5 ft and with less of wind wave action as winds overall have decreased from what they were a couple of days ago. Longshore current should be directed northward. There may be a bump up in the surf going into the holiday weekend that may necessitate High Risk. Surf averaging around 3 feet to possible 4 ft, mainly for northeast FL this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... The combination of deep mixing and sufficient southeasterly transport winds will generate generally good to high dispersions inland each afternoon through the weekend. Persistent onshore flow will allow moisture to continue filtering into the area, leading to MinRH values remaining above critical levels. With the onshore flow from the Atlantic, convective activity will be possible each afternoon to evening as the sea breeze pushes inland. By the weekend, increase chances and coverage of showers and storms is expected. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Isolated thunderstorms through the week. Patchy fog Thursday morning for inland locations, with locally dense fog possible inland southeast GA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 66 91 68 91 / 10 20 10 40 SSI 72 86 77 87 / 10 0 0 10 JAX 68 92 73 92 / 0 20 10 30 SGJ 70 90 75 90 / 0 10 10 10 GNV 68 94 72 95 / 20 20 20 30 OCF 69 92 73 93 / 30 30 20 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$  191 FXUS63 KARX 201741 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1241 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost potential continues looks low for tonight. - Periodic showers and storms from Thursday night into Sunday morning. Currently not expecting any organized severe weather. - Continuing to look likely that above- to well-above normal temperatures will develop across the region from Memorial Day into Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Tonight A northern stream shortwave, currently over Nebraska and South Dakota, will east northeast through the Upper Mississippi River Valley tonight. BUFKIT soundings show that a broken to overcast mid- and high deck of clouds will move into the area tonight. Much of this moisture is located above 600 mb and there is very dry air in the sub-cloud layer. As a result, not anticipating any precipitation from this wave. During the evening, there is a deep-layer of light winds. As the wave moves through the area during the overnight, the nocturnal, low-level jet increases. This will result in the boundary layer staying well mixed. This will help to keep our temperatures tonight from bottoming out overnight. Low temperatures along and north of Interstate 94 will be in the mid- and upper 30s, and in the lower and mid-40s elsewhere. Finally, there will be large temperature and dew point separation. This will result in little frost development. Due to this, we did not issue a Frost Advisory for tonight. Friday night through Sunday morning There will be 2 northern stream shortwave troughs will moving through the Upper Mississippi River Valley during this time frame. The first will move through the region on Friday and Friday night and the second one will move through the region on Saturday night. These systems will bring periodic showers and storms. The instability ahead of both waves are not that strong. It is up to 250 J/kg for the first wave and up to 750 J/kg with the second wave. In addition, the 0-3 and 0-6 km shear is only up to 20 knots. As a result, not expecting organized severe weather. Memorial Day through Wednesday A 500 mb ridge will build across the area. These building heights will result in above- to well-above normal temperatures developing across the region. This will potentially result in temperatures exceeding the 85th percentile (mid- and upper 80s). One concern is whether the trough south and southwest of this upper level ridge will move northward into the area. If this was to occur, temperatures would be more in the 60s and 70s and there would be a threat for showers and storms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period with sct to bkn high clouds expected this evening and into the daytime hours on Thursday. Winds will shift from northerly to east-southeasterly at overnight and into the daytime on Thursday, increasing to around 6- 12 kts by late morning. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Boyne AVIATION...Naylor  131 FXUS63 KOAX 201740 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1240 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower/thunderstorm chances return Wednesday night into Thursday continuing on/off through Friday. - Trend back toward warmer temperatures over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Today and Tonight... Surface high pressure settled into the region overnight, with clear skies to prevailing and little to no wind. This, in turn, allowed temperatures to plummet into the mid and upper 30s over northeast Nebraska, and mid 40s near the Kansas/Missouri borders by sunrise this morning. High pressure will slide east, as a weak upper level shortwave and associated cloud cover moves in from the southwest. A few spotty showers struggled to move east from central Nebraska, as more abundant deep layer moisture remained just west of the forecast area. Moisture is expected to finally shift eastward this evening, allowing for a better chance of rain reaching the surface along and south of I-80, over southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa (15-30%) tonight into Thursday morning. Temperatures will rise back into the upper 50s and low 60s this afternoon and Thursday. Lows will remain slightly warmer than this morning, under southerly return flow, only dipping into the low and mid 40s. Thursday Night and Beyond... Rain chances increase Thursday night into Friday, as a trough digs into the western CONUS out of southern Canada. While the exact track of this system is still a bit uncertain, models continue to keep the more potent instability south of the Kansas border. Though a couple rumbles of thunder will be possible, severe storms appear unlikely at this time. A weak cold front looks to pass through the region late Friday/early Saturday as the trough lifts northeast, but is quickly followed by high pressure building into the desert southwest. This will push warmer air back into the plains for the upcoming weekend. Highs will rise from the 60s on Friday into the low 70s on Saturday and upper 70s to low 80s Sunday. Mid to upper 80s look probable for the Memorial Day holiday through the first half of next week. Dry conditions will prevail Sunday through Memorial Day, before on and off shower and storm chances return to the forecast as a few weak waves ripple through the upper flow. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions will likely prevail through the majority of the forecast period. FEW to SCT FL030 clouds have begun to develop along and south of a line from KLNK to KBTA this afternoon. Scattered rain showers, isolated weak thunderstorms, and MVFR ceilings will begin to creep into southeast Nebraska overnight and into Thursday morning. A slight chance (15-25%) for showers reaches KLNK between 05-18Z Thursday. Expect MVFR ceilings will become prevailing at KLNK shortly after 18Z tomorrow. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KG AVIATION...KG  167 FXUS65 KFGZ 201741 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1041 AM MST Wed May 20 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions are in store for much of the week and into the weekend, along with typical afternoon breezes. && .DISCUSSION...Aside from weak troughing over the west, quasi- zonal flow largely remains in control through much of this week. Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions are expected through at least at least Saturday as a result. Winds look to generally remain light, however the aforementioned troughing will keep some typical spring- time afternoon breezes (20-30 mph) over the higher terrain. A weak low looks to eject off the Pacific into the southwest early next week. Ensemble guidance continues to signal towards an increase in PWATs from the resulting increase in moisture advection into Arizona. As of now, a few isolated afternoon showers and possibly thunderstorms look probable over the White Mountains as early as Sunday, then potentially spreading to more of the higher terrain for Monday and Tuesday. However, surface moisture at this point still looks fairly minimal, so much of the activity at this time looks to be high-based in nature. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 20/18Z through Thursday 21/18Z...VFR conditions. Winds are SW-W 5-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts, becoming light and VRB after 03Z. OUTLOOK...Thursday 21/18Z through Saturday 23/18Z...VFR conditions. Winds are SW-W 5-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts each day, becoming light and VRB during the overnight periods. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Dry conditions with gradually warming temperatures. Winds west/southwest 10-15 mph with gusts 20- 25 mph each day, along with minimum afternoon RH 5-15%. Friday through Sunday....Continued dry conditions with warming temperatures. Winds west/southwest 5-15 mph each day. Minimum afternoon RH 5-15% on Friday, rising to 10-20% over the weekend. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Humphreys AVIATION...Lewandowski FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  091 FXUS66 KHNX 201740 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1040 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Low relative humidities in the lower elevations of Central California brings at least a moderate risk of Fire Danger this week. 2. Warming trend continues for the remainder of this week. 3. Practice safety around area lakes, rivers, and streams as water is still running cold. && .DISCUSSION... Thanks to the high pressure that is continuing to build, temperatures today are looking to be a bit warmer today compared to yesterday. Most places were flirting with the 90s, hitting the upper 80s yesterday. Today, there is high confidence (70 to 90 percent) of exceeding 90 degrees. For Visalia, there is moderate confidence (50 percent) for exceeding 90 degrees. There is low to moderate confidence (25 to 50 percent) that temperatures will exceed 92 degrees today. There is low confidence (10 to 30 percent) of exceeding temperatures above 93 degrees. There is still a moderate risk for wildfires developing today, as the minimum relative humidity values range from 10 to 15 percent in the valley and 20 to 30 percent in the foothills. In the Mojave Desert and the slopes, that percentage is much lower, ranging from 5 to 10 percent. Winds are still expected to be calmer today. Looking into later this week, temperatures are looking to get into the mid 90s, as there is a high chance on Thursday (60 to 70 percent) and then on Friday a 50 to 70 percent chance of exceeding 95 degrees. Through the weekend, there will still be a moderate chance to reach the mid 90s for the lower elevations within the SJV. The highs begin to drop from the mid 90s to the 90s, then into the mid 80s as an upper level trough looks to move into the Pacific Northwest late Monday into Tuesday. Precipitation, if any, will be confined to the highest points of the Sierra Nevada range. With these warming temperatures, water ways will be running cold. Exercise caution around lakes, rivers, and streams as even the most experienced swimmers can lose dexterity in cold water. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Low relative humidity values will continue throughout the San Joaquin Valley, the West Side Hills of the Coastal Range, the lower Sierra Nevada Foothills, Kern Count mountains and the desert for the remainder of the week. Fast moving and developing grass and brush fires will be the main concern regarding available fuels. Winds will be light, but with the warming trend and lowering humidity there will be poor to moderate overnight humidity recovery. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public...BB aviation....BB weather.gov/hanford  248 FXUS63 KDMX 201742 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1242 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool today through Friday with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Overnight lows will be in the 40s. - Spotty showers move into the area on Thursday, becoming more widespread showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening and Friday. Severe weather is unlikely. - Warming trend this weekend with a return to the 80s. The forecast is dry from later Saturday through early next week with precipitation chances returning late Tuesday into Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 238 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Very patchy early morning fog has developed in parts of northwest Iowa where high cloud have cleared out and temperatures have cooled to near the dewpoint. Widespread fog is not expected this morning, but shallow fog may develop in low lying areas through sunrise. Temperatures falling off quickly behind the clouds to create this patchy fog development is also the area we are watching for frost potential early this morning. Temperatures in far northwest reaches of the area are around 38-41 degrees and have reached their dewpoints. It is possible temperatures fall another degree or two through the morning, but with only a handful of sites skimming the upper 30s frost is not expected to be widespread. It will be another cool day today with high pressure keeping warmer air well south of the state. At the same time, a long wave trough is developing across the western US. This will slowly move west, with the first indication being high clouds filtering into Iowa this afternoon. Temperatures remain chilly on Thursday in the low 60s. That trough will shift east with two embedded vorticity maxes. The southern vorticity max begins to lift into the area on Thursday morning but will battle dry air, resulting in spotty precipitation across the area in the morning to afternoon. The northern vorticity max with upper level trough axis swings across the area later Thursday and on Friday, providing the next chance for showers and a few thunderstorms across the area, as outlined below. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 By Thursday evening a 500 MB trough will be moving over the U.S. Rockies, and will subsequently become negatively tilted as it emerges over the northern High Plains Thursday night and Friday. As this trough swings across the region, it will generate a broad swath of rain associated with surging moisture, increasing winds aloft, and modest theta-e advection. This swath will enter our southwestern counties Thursday night and move across our forecast area on Friday. Instability will be very limited with surface temperatures only in the 50s to lower 60s, but will still be sufficient for a few elevated thunderstorms at times though severe weather will be unlikely. The rain will move out to the northeast late Friday, after which one last lobe of vorticity clearing out the larger-scale trough will cross Iowa late Saturday. Moisture will be much more limited and it remains to be seen whether any additional showers or thunderstorms will occur in association with that feature. For now 70-80% POPs are carried across Iowa Thursday night into Friday, with only 10-20% POPs on Saturday. In the first half of next week, from around Sunday to Wednesday, a large thermal trough will build over the central U.S., as a blocking pattern sets up with a large 500 MB low forming over the western U.S. Synoptically this would tend to support significantly warmer and generally dry weather for our region. However, there will initially be a week 500 MB trough/low over Texas as the larger ridge begins forming on Sunday, and long- range models are at odds with how that feature will interact with the ridge. The EC and GEM essentially wash out the low as it is overwhelmed by the larger thermal ridge, however, the GFS maintains it as a discrete feature that becomes trapped in the ridge and advects slowly northward over Iowa early next week. This leads to rapidly decreasing confidence in forecast details in the outer periods, however, even in the GFS solution generally warmer temperatures would still be favored, and it seems a safe bet that the cool weather of today and the next several days will be broken as we head into next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Northeast winds will become easterly with time. Gusts up to 20kts will be possible in the daylight hours. SCT midlevel clouds will become BKN to OVC after 00z. Precipitation will arrive at southern terminals shortly after this TAF period concludes. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hagenhoff LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...Jimenez  262 FXUS64 KLUB 201742 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1242 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1234 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms remain possible through the rest of Wednesday and overnight into Thursday. - Potential for sever thunderstorms Thursday afternoon, mainly off the Caprock. - A cold front is progged to push through the region Friday slightly cooling temperatures for the weekend and rain chances. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A much cooler day compared to last weekend remains on track for today. Current water vapor imagery indicated a broad upper trough over the Rockies bringing southwesterly flow aloft. This pattern aloft has ushered in subtropical moisture to the region. At the same time, southeasterly surface flow will usher in moisture from the gulf to lower levels. A low stratus layer filled in across the region this morning and is expected to prevail through the rest of today. This will keep temperatures this afternoon in the upper 60s to lower 70s. An upper jet associated with the aforementioned trough will move in over the region through the afternoon and early evening. With plenty of moisture and upper forcing associated with the jet, shower and thunderstorm chances persist through the rest of today. Instability is expected to be low through the afternoon, therefore we are expecting scattered rain showers. There is potential for an isolated severe thunderstorm or two this evening with the potential for small to quarter size hail and a severe gust or two, however chances are low at this time. Tonight is expected to be pleasant with lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s. An embedded upper shortwave passing overhead tonight and lingering moisture on all levels rain showers will continue overnight into much of the day Thursday. The upper shortwave is expected to depart the region Thursday evening effectively ending precipitation chances from west to east. CAMs are indicating scattered thunderstorms developing over the southern South Plains late Thursday afternoon will combine into a line of storms along the I-27 corridor and continuing east through the rest of the region. However, this set up is uncertain at the moment as the environment looks to remained capped through the day Thursday. Despite the continued cloudy skies, Thursday will be slightly warmer compared to today with highs in the 70s across the region. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 The long term forecast will start off will start off with a much warmer Friday. Mostly zonal flow will fill in a loft as the upper trough mentioned in the short term discussion exits away from the region and a secondary trough digs south along the Rockies through central CONUS. Slight height increases during the day Friday will allow temperatures to warm to the 80s to lower 90s Friday. Models indicate a dryline will push eastward across the Caprock to just east of the I-27 corridor later Friday afternoon. At the same time, a cold front will push south across the Texas Panhandle. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the dryline where it it intersect with the cold front. The greatest chances are expected over the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and the Rolling Plains. The passage of the cold front will bring widespread shower and thunderstorm chances Saturday through early Sunday morning as well. Rain chances and mostly cloudy skies through the weekend will slightly "cool" temperatures with highs in the upper 70s through lower 80s. We will see a lull in precipitation chances the rest of Sunday and Monday, however chances return through the rest of the week as another upper trough amplifies over western CONUS. Models indicate the passage of embedded shortwaves everyday from Tuesday on giving way for storm development. However, that is about a week away and can expect changes in future forecasts. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 MVFR ceilings will prevail through the rest of today. IFR ceilings are expected at all three TAF sites around midnight through Thursday morning. MVFR ceilings are expected through late Thursday morning and the afternoon. light to moderate southeasterly winds will prevail through the next 24 hours. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the rest of today and overnight into Thursday. Severe thunderstorm potential, however cannot rule out the development of an isolated severe thunderstorm or two near any terminal. Storm chances are expected to dissipate Thursday afternoon. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...10  257 FXUS64 KSJT 201742 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1242 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms possible this afternoon and tonight mainly in Crockett county, Concho Valley and I-10 corridor. - Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms today into Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 149 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 With afternoon heating and a weak embedded shortwaves CAMs are indicating scattered showers to develop this afternoon, particularly in western zones including Crockett county and Concho Valley mid afternoon, which move east in the late afternoon. A second stronger band of showers and thunderstorm is then indicated moving through tonight, beginning in western zones around 10 PM. Some storms could become severe as MUCAPES increase to 2500 J/KG mainly along and south of a Big Lake to Junction line. SPC has a slight risk of severe thunderstorms west of a Sterling City...Mertzon...Sonora line with marginal risk east to Sweetwater, Ballinger to Eden and Junction. The CAMs do indicated the stronger convection in Crockett county and I-10 corridor. Large hail is the main threat. Cooler otherwise today with clouds and storm. Highs range from the mid 70s north to upper 70s south. Lows overnight will be in the lower 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 The upper level pattern shows persistent troughing over the western US, especially over the Desert Southwest and Baja California, for Thursday through this weekend. This places the southern Plains in predominantly southwest flow aloft during this time. Several weak embedded waves will be ejected eastward by the trough into west Texas for Thursday through Saturday. Meanwhile at the surface, southerly to southeasterly flow should continue to advect a moist, unstable airmass into west central Texas over top of the boundary that stalled across Texas on Tuesday. On Thursday there are medium to high (40-75%) chances for showers and thunderstorms. PWAT values of 1-1.5 inches are expected which may lead to more heavy rain and flooding concerns, especially across eastern counties. Chances for storms look lower on Friday after the first upper-level wave passes and the aforementioned surface boundary lifts northward to the central Plains. The upper-level trough over the Baja will move eastward into Texas on Saturday while the surface front drops southward into west Texas. Afternoon thunderstorm chances should increase again for Saturday and Sunday along and ahead of this front. Models show this upper low potentially becoming a weak cutoff low over east Texas for early next week while another upper trough approaches from the western US. This setup would keep our neck of the woods in an active pattern with chances for thunderstorms for Monday and Tuesday. The risk of severe weather is difficult to determine at this time until the picture becomes a bit clearer. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Expect mainly MVFR to low end VFR ceilings this afternoon and early evening with widespread stratus, MVFR/IFR conditions returning late tonight. Also, the Hi-Res models are indicating scattered to numerous thunderstorms across much of the area this evening and late tonight and have a few hours of thunder at all of the terminals. The winds will be mainly light, less than 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 76 62 75 61 / 40 70 70 30 San Angelo 77 61 78 61 / 60 70 40 30 Junction 80 62 79 62 / 50 90 50 40 Brownwood 77 62 76 60 / 30 70 70 20 Sweetwater 75 61 76 60 / 50 50 60 30 Ozona 78 61 7961 / 70 70 30 30 Brady 77 63 76 61 / 40 70 50 50 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...21  222 FXUS64 KTSA 201741 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1241 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1226 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Rain and thunder chances increase Thursday into Friday, and remain forecast daily into the first half of next week with periods of heavy rain. - Abnormally cool weather is expected through Thursday, with a slow warming trend then developing into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Low level moisture and fairly light winds within the lower levels underneath weak mid level high pressure moving through the region Wednesday will allow for low level cloud cover to remain into tonight over eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Temperatures Wednesday afternoon of upper 50s to mid 70s from north to south are anticipated. These conditions should keep temperatures from changing all that much tonight with lows in the 50s/60s. Overnight tonight, as the mid level high exits to the east/northeast, mid level flow becomes more southwestward which will aid in lifting a shortwave out of Mexico and into Texas Thursday morning. Increasing warm advection ahead of this wave combined with ample amounts of low level moisture bring the return of rain showers to eastern Oklahoma late tonight and spreading eastward over the CWA Thursday morning. Instability looks to be mainly elevated and remain quite limited. Thus will only carry slight chances of thunder into Thursday morning for the western half of the CWA. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Rain showers and slight to low end chance thunderstorm potentials spread over eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the day Thursday and continue Thursday night while the shortwave lifts northeast into the region. Latest data continues to highlight marginal instability Thursday/Thursday night, and in response severe weather is not anticipated. However, with precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches forecast, a heavy rain threat exists through Thursday night across the CWA. At this time, widespread half inch to 1.5 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts topping 3 inches are forecast into Friday morning. This rainfall on top of recent rains could increase flood concerns into Friday. Rain showers taper off and exit during the day Friday with the departing wave. Clouds cover and rain showers should continue the cooler conditions Thursday. As the backside of the disturbance exits Friday, cloud cover tries to become more scattered over eastern Oklahoma with warmer temperatures in the 70s to low 80s Friday afternoon. Friday afternoon/evening storm chances increase out west with a developing vorticity maxima moving out into the Texas Panhandles. This vort max makes its way eastward Friday night into the CWA ahead of a frontal boundary sagging southeast into the region late Friday night/Saturday. The combination of these features along with slightly greater instability increases thunderstorm chances for the CWA Friday night/Saturday. Again a heavy rain threat exists with also an isolated to limited severe potential. The frontal boundary stalls over the region, and then lifts back northward Sunday from a broad area of low pressure slowly spreading across the southern Plains. Latest model solutions continue to indicate this area of low pressure becoming more of a cut off low that holds over the region into the first half of next week before getting picked up with a longwave trof developing over the western CONUS. Thus, shower and scattered thunderstorm chances remain forecast Sunday through Wednesday across the CWA. At this time, the greater potential could be during the afternoon/evening hours each day, though more precise details are still to be determined. A locally heavy rain threat as well as an isolated/limited severe potential exists each day into early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A shallow cool airmass in place near the surface, brought in by the cold front yesterday, continues to bring low (some IFR) cigs to the region. The latest guidance and satellite imagery indicates that the cool wedge will gradually erode from south to north today into tonight. As such, expect climbing cigs and improvement in flight conditions for the first half of the forecast. An upper storm system coming in from the west will bring rain and storms on Thursday. Cigs will be on the decline at the E OK sites during the latter half of the forecast back to MVFR. Some brief MVFR may also appear at the NW AR sites Thu morning, but a trend back to VFR cigs is expected there later in the day. The latest HRRR keeps the bulk of the shower activity to the west of the TAF sites until just beyond the scope of this forecast, however kept the going prob30 mention for the E OK sites for the last 6 hours. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 59 70 63 78 / 30 90 90 40 FSM 63 77 65 79 / 10 60 90 50 MLC 63 73 64 81 / 20 90 90 20 BVO 55 69 60 78 / 30 80 90 50 FYV 60 75 63 75 / 20 60 90 80 BYV 58 73 62 73 / 10 60 90 90 MKO 60 72 63 79 / 30 90 90 40 MIO 57 71 62 74 / 20 70 90 80 F10 60 71 62 79 / 30 90 90 20 HHW 65 74 64 81 / 20 90 90 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...30  246 FXUS65 KGJT 201742 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1142 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers with some thunderstorms will favor the northern and central areas Thursday as a disturbance and cold front move through by Thursday evening. - Drier conditions are expected this weekend with a return towards warm, above normal temperatures. - Unsettled conditions potentially return to the region early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1142 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY: While the pattern is slowly transitioning to drier and warmer with a ridge of high pressure expected this weekend, we are still under the influence of an upper level trough that is positioned across the northern Rockies. Some potential vorticity and an upper level jet overhead is resulting in some light isolated showers across the central and southern Divide mountains this afternoon. Most areas should remain dry but temperatures will still be around 5 to 10 degrees below normal even though they are expected to end up a few degrees higher than yesterday. Models are honing in on potential for more scattered showers with some thunderstorms possible across the northern areas Thursday afternoon, with potential for these showers/storms to push further southward into the central areas late Thursday afternoon into the evening as the last piece of this shortwave trough and associated cold front moves through Thursday evening. That being said, accumulations at this time are expected to remain light. Some critical fire weather conditions are possible across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado but even this looks a bit marginal for both RH and wind so elected to hold off on issuing any Fire Weather highlights at this time for those areas where fuels are critical. Some sub- freezing temperatures are expected across the Central Yampa River Basin tonight but coverage of hard freeze appears more localized and concentrated along the Yampa River so coverage wasn't widespread enough and decided to hold off on another Freeze Warning. Temperatures cool down a few degrees for Friday following frontal passage but conditions should improve through the day with an overall dry day expected aside from some light lingering showers over the northern mountains. THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND: A ridge of high pressure builds in for the weekend with temperatures returning towards above normal levels by about 5 to 10 degrees through early next week. While conditions are expected to be drier, afternoon convection is possible each day favoring the high terrain. Beyond Sunday, moisture increases Monday into Tuesday as a low pressure trough moves into the Pacific Northwest and the flow shifts to the southwest, which could favor increasing precipitation chances and better coverage for showers/storms, particularly Monday night into Tuesday. Still some uncertainty but potential does exists for more unsettled conditions heading into early next week after a drier and warmer weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1142 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Westerly to northwesterly winds are expected this afternoon, with gusts of 15-25 knots. These winds will relax after sunset, becoming light and terrain driven. Some light rain showers, maybe a few isolated thunderstorms, are expected along the southern and central Divide, impacting KTEX, KGUC, and possible KASE. These showers will produce gusty and erratic winds, brief rainfall, and possibly lightning. In addition, these showers will keep ceilings near ILS breakpoints for KASE and KEGE through 00z. Skies clear by 06z tonight. VFR conditions will prevail, though brief drops to MVFR under passing showers is possible. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MDA AVIATION...TGJT  284 FXUS66 KLOX 201743 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1043 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 Updated Aviation Discussion .SYNOPSIS...20/858 AM. Light offshore flow will continue this morning and will bring one more sunny and warm day. Beginning Thursday there will be a return to cooler May Grey conditions which will last through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...20/911 AM. ***UPDATE*** Light offshore flow continues this morning across LA/Ventura Counties and the offshore waters and islands. However, a low stratus layer is advancing down the coast from Monterey pushing cooler air into the Central Coast. So the trends today across our forecast area are split between 1-3 degrees of warming in the south and 3-6 degrees of cooling along the Central Coast. By tomorrow cooling will reach all areas with the exception of the Antelope Valley which will take an additional day before cooling begins there. Overall, no significant changes to the forecast expected, with general cooling through Friday and increasing amounts of morning low clouds and fog across coast and valleys, then little change over the weekend. ***From Previous Discussion*** Not much in the way of weather for the short term (or the long term for that matter). At the upper levels the base of a weak pos tilt trof will be over Srn CA with hgts around 576 dam. At the sfc there will be weak offshore flow this morning but then there will be increasing onshore flow through Friday both to the east and north. By Friday the onshore push will be moderate to strong. Skies will be clear today. Some low clouds will develop tonight but will likely only affect the Central Coast and the LA county coast. By Friday most of the csts and some of the lower vlys will wake up to low clouds. The SBA south coast will have a local offshore push and this should keep that area stratus free. Aside from the stratus and some high clouds Thursday night skies will be mostly clear. Today will be the warmest day with most areas gaining 1 or 2 degrees on ydy's very warm readings. Most csts will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s with the furthest inland coastal areas seeing upper 80s. The vlys will sizzle with reading a couple degrees either side of 90. These max temps are about 10 degrees over normal. The switch to onshore flow will bring 4 to 8 degrees of cooling to the area both Thursday and Friday. This cooling will bring below normal temps to the near shore areas and near normal temps over the rest of the csts and vlys. There will be weak offshore winds this morning but the rest of the period will have standard afternoon sea breezes. One exception to this may be southwest Santa Barbara County where a 2-4mb offshore gradient during the overnight hours will likely create nightly Sundowners with winds gusting between 25 and 40 mph at times, particularly tonight and Thursday night. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...20/229 AM. Very May like weather will be the norm for the 4 day xtnd period. Saggy-baggy troffing will cover most of the state through the period. At the sfc there will be moderate to strong onshore flow to the east and weak to moderate onshore flow to the north. There will be a good dose of night through morning low clouds across most of the coast and many vly areas every day. Due to the strength of the onshore flow some beaches may not clear at all. The strong onshore flow in the afternoon will generate stronger than normal sea breezes as well as gusty west winds in the Antelope Vly. Additionally the western portion of the SBA south coast will see varying degrees of north winds each evening. Most areas will cool 1 or 2 degrees each day except perhaps 2 to 4 degrees on Tuesday. Most csts will see max temps in the mid 60s to mid 70s each day with upper 70s tolower 80s in the vlys. Max temps will mostly end up a few degrees below normal across the csts/vlys and the mtns and far interior will end up a few degrees over normal. && .AVIATION...20/1734Z. At 1722Z at KLAX, there was a shallow marine layer at 400 ft. The inversion had a top of 2200 ft with a temperature of 22 C. High confidence in CAVU TAFs for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, and KWJF. There is a 20% chance of 5SM FU at KVNY. High confidence in no major wind impacts, but low confidence in arrival of low clouds, flight cats, and timing over night. There is a chance for low clouds at all coastal sites, highest at KSMX. At KSMX/KSBP, there is a 30% chance for VLIFR/LIFR conds when cigs are present. Timing of cig arrival KLAX...Moderate confidence in winds, but low confidence in minimum flight cat for TAF. 40% chance for no low clouds, but if they arrive timing may be any time from 10Z-14Z. Low confidence in min flight cat, but 30% chance for 1SM-3SM vsbys and/or cigs OVC002-004. Good confidence that any east wind component will be AOB 6kt. KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF. No wind issues expected. && .MARINE...20/906 AM. Moderate confidence in marginal Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds across much of the waters this afternoon through tonight, with wind gusts 15-25 kt common. Then Thursday through the weekend, northwest winds and wave heights are expected to remain below SCA levels, except for localized gusts to 20-25 kt in the afternoon and evening hours near Point Conception and the western Channel Islands, as well as the San Pedro Channel on Sunday. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 650-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Rorke AVIATION...Lewis MARINE...Lewis SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  481 FXUS62 KMLB 201745 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 145 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 138 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 - Continued High Risk for life-threatening rip currents at all central Florida Atlantic beaches. Entering the dangerous surf is strongly discouraged! - Temperatures see little change into early next week, but increasing humidity into the weekend will produce heat index values near or above 100 degrees and a Moderate to Major HeatRisk. - Isolated coastal showers continue. However, most convection will be focused over the interior, moving towards the west coast into the evening. Overall, many locations will stay dry. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Today-Tonight...A rinse and repeat forecast today, as a ridge remains placed northeast of the local area. The only difference today looks to be a very minor reduction in east to southeast flow. However, winds are still expected to increase to around 10-15 mph behind the sea breeze, with gusts to near 20 mph, especially along the coast. Winds then become light overnight, a reduction from the previous few days. High temperatures continue in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with overnight lows in the 70s, but near 80 along the coast. With little change to the overall pattern, have maintained a low chance (15%) for onshore- moving showers through tonight across coastal areas, knowing that CAMs struggle to resolve these features. A slight reduction in the east coast sea breeze is expected to allow for a more interior collision over the peninsula, though it still favors areas well west of Orlando. Outside of light coastal showers, the sea breeze will be the focus of convection this afternoon, with PoPs 20-40%. Drier air in the mid-levels leading to DCAPE near 1000 J/kg and 500 mb temperatures near -10 C could once again support a strong storm or two, with gusty winds near 50 mph and small hail, as well as lightning strikes. Any showers and storms that develop will drift westerly, inland from the coast. Thursday-Wednesday...High pressure remains off of the eastern US seaboard through the forecast period, though it is expected to drift southward towards Florida into mid-week next week and strengthen. Meanwhile, a mid to upper level low north of the Bahamas drifts eastward late this week, with upper level ridging subsequently developing over the peninsula. Locally, little change remains expected to the weather pattern over the next seven days. East to southeast flow prevails on the southern periphery of the ridge. Winds increase each afternoon to 10-15 mph, with gusts 20-25 mph, behind the sea breeze as it moves inland. The strongest gusts are expected along the coast. The daily sea breeze collision will continue to favor the far interior, if not western half of the peninsula. Thus, that's where the highest rainfall chances are for the afternoons and into the evening hours (PoPs 20-50%). A slight increase in moisture this weekend looks to have little effect on PoPs, as ridging develops aloft. Regardless, isolated coastal showers embedded within onshore flow are expected to persist through much of the period, especially during the overnight and early morning hours. However, most areas will likely remain dry overall. Lingering drier air in the mid- levels could support a few strong wind gusts in any more developed storms through Friday, before increasing moisture and warming 500mb temperatures reduce that threat into the weekend. E/SE flow holds high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s each day. As moisture increases into the weekend, so do heat indices, which rise into the upper 90s to low 100s. Humid conditions and little relief overnight due to temperatures remaining in the 70s (and near 80 along the coast) will lead to increasing coverage of Moderate HeatRisk and even a developing Major HeatRisk for several ECFL locations (including the Orlando metro). Use caution during the heat of the day, especially this weekend, by staying hydrated and taking breaks in an air- conditioned space. A High Risk or high- end Moderate Risk for rip currents looks to continue through the week into the weekend, thanks to onshore flow. && .MARINE... Issued at 138 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 High pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain east to southeast flow through the weekend. Winds remain around 10-15 kts, with gusts near 20 kts along the coast behind the sea breeze. Shallow, low-level moisture will support at least isolated showers through the weekend. However, a majority of convection will develop over land areas along the sea breeze and drift farther westward. Seas 2-4 ft prevail into the weekend, though occasionally reach up to 5 ft well offshore. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 137 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR outside of convection. CAMs continue to show TSRA developing INVOF KMCO and other Orlando terminals between 20Z-23Z before pushing westward, but still not confident enough in direct impacts for TEMPOs with the package. Sea breeze collision forecast west of KLEE and ECFL terminals after 23Z. Along the coast, onshore moving -SHRA have diminished, but could return in the overnight hours. Winds ESE 7-13 kts with gusts to around 20 kts, especially along the Treasure Coast, become light/VRB overnight, shifting to the SE at 5-10 kts Thursday. Lighter more SErly winds will favor a Thursday afternoon sea breeze collision and TSRA closer to the inland terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 72 88 75 90 / 10 20 10 20 MCO 72 91 73 91 / 10 30 10 30 MLB 77 87 78 88 / 10 20 10 20 VRB 75 87 78 89 / 10 20 10 20 LEE 73 91 75 92 / 10 30 20 30 SFB 72 92 74 92 / 0 30 10 30 ORL 72 91 74 91 / 10 30 10 30 FPR 75 87 77 88 / 10 20 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wishard AVIATION...Haley  300 FXUS63 KGRR 201743 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 143 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost Expected Along and North of M-20 - Periods of Rain Friday through the Weekend - Warming Up Next Week With Slight Chances (20 percent) for Rain && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 143 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 - Frost Expected Along and North of M-20 Colder temperatures move in tonight with 925 mb temperatures around 4 to 5 C and a weak inversion in place. Lows tonight drop into the low 30s to low 40s from north to south. The best potential for frost will be along and north of M-20 where there is a higher probability (60 to 90 percent) of temperatures falling below 37 F. Therefore this area has been included in the Frost Advisory. Further south temperatures are expected to be largely above 37 F, but some isolated low lying areas could briefly fall below before sunrise. Winds further south are less likely to be calm and therefore will help keep temperatures warmer. Any increase in cloud cover would also keep temperatures from falling lower. - Periods of Rain Friday through the Weekend High pressure sticks around for one more day Thursday. Some showers may try to move in from the west Thursday afternoon, but dry air should keep anything from reaching the ground. Upper level divergence will be present Friday into Saturday with a shortwave moving through. There are some differences with the timing and location of the low as it moves through. Overall the best chances looking at the cluster analysis will be Friday night into Saturday. There will be some instability which could result in some embedded thunderstorms overnight into Saturday. The best chance for any thunder will be south of I-96. Another shortwave moves through Sunday bringing more chances for rain and thunderstorms. The best chances (40 to 50 percent) are along and east of a Kalamazoo to Alma line. - Warming Up Next Week With Slight Chances (20 percent) for Rain Upper level ridging builds in for next week with warming temperatures and some slight chances (20 percent) for rain and thunderstorms. These showers and storms could be more of the afternoon pop up variety as there isn't any great source of lift for anything more widespread. Temperatures will warm each day with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 143 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR prevails this afternoon now that stratocumulus clouds have gone scattered/broken above 3,500 feet. The lower atmospheric clouds will continue to dissipate going into this evening, though some models such as the HRRR want to hang on to moisture and clouds around 3,000 feet for a period between 02-08 Z tonight, moving from JXN toward AZO. && .MARINE... Issued at 143 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Northerly winds and waves continue to build this afternoon with High Swim Risk Conditions and Small Craft Advisory conditions expected from Grand Haven and to the south. Winds and wave heights will decrease tonight with winds becoming more easterly into Thursday. Winds further offshore will remain from the north before shifting to the northeast Thursday night. Friday winds build once more to Small Craft Advisory levels as a low pressure system tracks toward the area. Rain and a few thunderstorms will be possible Friday night into Saturday with the best chances for lightning south of Grand Haven. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ037>040- 043>046. Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ056-064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ844>846. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...CAS MARINE...RAH  399 FXUS63 KICT 201745 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1245 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Below average temperatures through Thursday or Friday, warming trend thereafter. - Off-and-on scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms tonight through the weekend (highest chances through Friday night), with additional off-and-on chances Tuesday through next week. Widespread severe weather is unlikely. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES: PREDAWN HOURS--EARLY THIS MORNING...Should see isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms over far southeast KS, underneath the right entrance region of an upper jet, and in vicinity of a persistent 850-700mb trough/moist axis. Marginal instability will prevent strong/severe storms or widespread heavy rainfall. THIS EVENING--WEEKEND...A train of shortwaves traversing Mid-America will support periodic off-and-on shower/thunderstorm chances this evening through the weekend, but likely most widespread tonight through Friday night. While a few strong storms and pockets of heavy rainfall are possible, marginal instability combined with relatively weak shear and forcing should preclude widespread chances for severe weather. The only caveat to that may be late Friday, when increasing instability and mid-level lapse rates may support a few severe storms, especially west-southwest of the forecast area. There's quite a bit of spread between various model solutions on how much rain we'll receive through the weekend. However, the overall consensus supports the greatest potential for one inch or more generally east of the KS Turnpike, with generally less than one inch west of the Turnpike. Of course, locally higher amounts are always possible. NEXT WEEK...Deterministic and ensemble consensus digs a rather deep longwave trough across the western CONUS. Increasing deep moisture and instability should support continued off-and-on shower/thunderstorm chances, especially Tuesday through week's end. While widespread severe weather appears unlikely, there remains some uncertainty on the timing and magnitude of ejecting shortwaves and the speed of the flow aloft, along with available instability. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days. TEMPERATURES: Below average temperatures are likely today through Thursday and possibly even Friday, as Canadian high pressure exerts its influence on Mid-America, along with mostly cloudy skies and periodic precipitation. Daytime highs mostly in the 60s and 70s are expected, with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. As we head into Saturday and beyond, a warming trend back to above average temperatures is expected, as heights/thickness gradually increase over the Heartland. Widespread daytime highs in the 80s are probable by Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Widespread MVFR CIGS are present across southeast KS and currently impacting CNU. These MVFR conditions are likely continue through much of the period at CNU. MVFR conditions are likely to expand across south-central KS near 06Z with impacts at ICT and HUT. Confidence decreases across central KS for prevailing MVFR, therefore have withheld for now. Isolated to scattered showers are expected overnight with the greatest coverage across south-central and southeast KS. Showers should depart the area by mid-morning. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...BRF  314 FXUS63 KJKL 201744 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 144 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower and thunderstorms will become more prevalent today, with widespread rain chances continuing through the next seven days, including the holiday weekend. - The switch to an active and wetter pattern yields temperatures closer to normal readings, and is likely to provide at least temporary relief from drought conditions. && .UPDATE... Issued at 928 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026 Convection along the I-64 corridor should gradually fade over the next couple of hours before more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity moves in from the west late morning. Aside from small hourly PoP/Sky/T/Td adjustments no other changes where needed for the short-term forecast. UPDATE Issued at 622 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026 Showers and thunderstorms have developed in the last hour or so along a moisture (i.e., theta-e) gradient roughly parallel to the western escarpment of the Cumberland Plateau. This activity is ahead of the cold front, which is still west and northwest of the forecast area across central Kentucky. PoPs and Sky grids have been updated to reflect these trends. Hourly T/Tds have also been updated in the very near term. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 328 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026 A cold front will move southeast into eastern Kentucky this afternoon, then come to a stall later tonight through Thursday along the TN and VA borders. Meanwhile, broad forcing for ascent increases across the area through the day as a slow-moving shortwave approaches from the southwest, with the shortwave becoming gradually sheared out across southeastern Kentucky tonight into Thursday as shortwave ridging builds over the area by Thursday evening. As the front approaches from the northwest today and the aforementioned shortwave approaches from the southwest, rain chances will steadily increase. Current dew points in the 60s combined with a developing mid-level 30-40 kt speed max ahead of the shortwave will provide the kinematics and thermodynamics for scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, with low to moderate buoyancy from surface high temperatures forecast to reach the lower to mid 80s for much of the area, warmest in the Big Sandy Basin. Thus, a few isolated severe storms will be possible, with damaging winds and hail the primary severe threats. Additionally, downpours may cause localized high water issues in poor drainage areas. Showers and thunderstorm activity transitions to more of a shower/rain threat tonight into Thursday as the shortwave becomes sheared and the cold front stalls near or along the TN and VA state lines, creating more of an overrunning situation. The building upper ridging Thursday may allow for northwestern parts of the forecast area, especially toward the I-64 corridor and Bluegrass region, to stay mostly if not completely dry, as shower activity becomes more confined with time closer to the stalled front across southeastern Kentucky. Temperatures tonight will likely cool into the 50s, especially for northern areas behind the cold front, while lower to mid 60s for lows are expected toward the TN border to the south of the stalling front. Thursday's highs will be below normal for northern and central parts of the forecast area, likely around 70 degrees under persistent cloud cover and shower chances, with highs closer to normal near and south of the front near the TN and VA borders. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 302 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026 The forecast period begins with the region likely situated north of a frontal zone Thursday night as a shortwave in southwest flow approaches the region. This should support the boundary lifting north as a warm front as a sfc wave rides into the OH Valley. With the northwest lifting warm front, it is probable that chances of convection will spread north through the overnight period Thursday night. Overnight lows are still expected to be mild as the warm front lifts north across the area. This warm front will cross the region on Friday, serving as the catalyst for widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms throughout the day as another wave moves along the boundary and treks toward the Great Lakes for Friday night. While marginal thermodynamic indices will once again favor pulse-type, non-severe convection, the primary hazard shifts toward heavy rainfall and high precipitation efficiency. This boundary likely remains north of the area to start the weekend, before sagging back into the OH Valley and stalling to end the period. Passing disturbances and the moist airmass, with PWs per the 12Z LREF generally in the 1.3 to 1.7 inch range, or the 90th percentile, should at least be conducive for a diurnal uptick in convection for Friday to Monday. The 12Z Tuesday LREF event totals through 8 PM EDT on Monday have a min to max range of 0.75 inches to near 7 inches, while the 25th to 75th percentile range from 1.5 or 1.75 inches near the VA border to 3.75 inches in the north and west. Recent deterministic guidance projects widespread QPF amounts ranging from 2.00 inches in the Lake Cumberland area to 2.75 inches across northeastern portions of the forecast area, with lesser amounts near 1.5 inches in southeastern KY near the West Virginia and Virginia borders, due to local downsloping effects. As a side note, since the area is dry, heavy rainfall on top of moisture starved ground could create runoff issues leading to potential hydrologic issues. Ultimately, this period will highlight a distinct regime shift toward a much wetter synoptic setup, a stark difference from the persistent dry pattern observed over the last few weeks and months. Due to persistent cloud cover and rain, daytime highs will remain capped in the upper 70s to mid 80s, while overnight lows drop into the lower to middle 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026 Most sites are VFR; however, showers and thunderstorms have developed ahead of an approaching cold front. This will cause increasing coverage of showers and storms across the area with all sites falling into MVFR over the next few hours. Showers and storms are forecast through the TAF window as slow frontal passage occurs. This will favor lowered CIGs and VSBY and TAFs will fall from VFR to MVFR/IFR and remaining there through the TAF window. Outside of thunderstorms winds will generally be light; however, thunderstorms could create gusty and erratic winds. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEERTSON SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...JP/VORST/CMC AVIATION...VORST  588 FXUS63 KPAH 201748 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1248 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers will gradually wind down this afternoon into the evening, with a brief dry period expected tonight through Thursday. - Another round of showers and storms arrives Thursday night into Friday. Can't rule out a few stronger storms Friday afternoon, but confidence is low at this time. - An unsettled holiday weekend is shaping up with multiple rounds of showers and storms likely. It does appear the bulk of the daytime hours on Saturday may end up dry though. The unsettled pattern likely continues through at least mid next week. - There is a 60-80% chance that southeast portions of the Quad State exceed 3 inches of additional rainfall through next Wednesday. - Temperatures start out 5 to 10 degrees below normal the next two days (low to mid 70s) before nudging closer to normal this weekend (near 80) and eventually above normal by mid next week (mid 80s). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A disturbance lifting across the lower Ohio Valley today is resulting in a widespread soaking rain across our region. Certainly is quite beneficial for the ongoing drought! This activity will gradually wind down this afternoon, with lingering showers mainly over the KY Pennyrile this evening before shifting east. A 1032mb surface high across the Great Lakes will attempt to push drier air into our area tonight into Thursday (although dew points likely remain above 60 across our southern counties). This will shunt the boundary well to our south and result in a 24 hour period of dry conditions through Thursday evening. Another shortwave aloft will move northeast from the Ark-La-Tex Thursday night into Friday with a good surge of additional moisture associated with it. This likely induces a surface low to develop, but placement of this is still rather uncertain. The GFS/Canadian pivot it northeast across southeast MO and southwest IL during the day on Friday, leading to a nice surge of 70 degree dewpoints and 1500-2000 j/kg of SBCAPE for at least the eastern half of our area. Meanwhile, the NAM is further east with the low moving up across the KY Pennyrile and resultant warm sector more to our east over LMK's area. Right now we aren't outlooked for severe storms, but if the GFS/Canadian end up being close to right then we likely would end up in at least a marginal risk. Morning activity could muck things up though, so certainly a low confidence situation. It appears another lull develops Friday night into much of Saturday (currently looks like Saturday is the choice day of the holiday weekend for outdoor activities). Models continue to suggest a 500mb low across Texas on Sunday that slowly churns northward into the Ozarks/Missouri Valley through Tuesday. Forcing and moisture associated with this will lead to additional rounds of showers and storms on a daily basis Sunday through Tuesday. This may continue into at least mid next week as an upper ridge across the southeastern U.S. will keep a steady southwesterly flow of moisture into our area. There remains a high chance (60-80%) of at least 3" of additional rain across the southeast half of the area (particularly west KY) through next Wednesday. Temperatures will be on the cooler side (low to mid 70s) the next couple of days before we start to trend warmer over the holiday weekend as get back around 80. Even warmer temperatures back into the mid 80s appear like a good bet by mid next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1110 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Widespread showers will gradually wind down from west to east through the afternoon, with any lingering activity after 00z southeast of the terminals. Limited thunder potential this afternoon and that should likely remain south and east of even KPAH/KOWB. IFR and low MVFR cigs will be hard pressed to move out, but some improvement this evening is anticipated at least at western terminals. Likely remain MVFR for southeast half to two thirds of the region though. Conditions likely decline again by early Friday morning with a return of IFR cigs. After the -SHRA exits we may still have some MVFR vsby restrictions to deal with across west KY overnight, but fairly low confidence on that impacting the terminals. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION...SP  618 FXUS61 KBGM 201749 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 149 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor adjustments were made to the expected rain chances and timing today. Today's forecast high temperatures were lowered to be in line with the hourly NBM data. Northwest winds and wind gusts were nudged up a few MPH, especially across the Mohawk Valley and surrounding areas of Central NY. Probabilities for thunderstorms this afternoon were adjusted as well, with thunder chances now only extending across most of NE PA and the southern Catskills. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A front will drop south and east through the area today, bringing more clouds, showers, chances for thunderstorms and lower temperatures. Showers may linger into Thursday morning for portions of Northeast PA as the front temporarily stalls nearby. 2) Much cooler weather is expected Thursday afternoon, and Thursday night as high pressure builds over the area. Our weather should remain dry most of the day on Friday, with seasonable temperatures. 3) Confidence continues to increase in a rainy, cool start to the holiday weekend. There could eventually be some short dry periods later on Sunday and into Memorial Day, but high uncertainty remains on the timing of these. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The cold front is back across southern Ontario early this morning, with warm temperatures still in the mid-60s to mid-70s as of 2 AM EDT. The front will slowly drop south and east through the morning hours, along with a few scattered showers across Central NY. The front looks to reach the NW Finger Lakes and Syracuse areas by mid morning, with temperatures falling back into the low or mid 60s and overcast skies developing. The front reaches the NY southern tier by early afternoon, with temperatures falling into the upper 60s for the afternoon hours. Further south, across NE PA it should still warm up between about 75 to 85 degrees for several hours late this morning and early afternoon. Instability will build, with upwards of 500 J/kg of MLCAPE possible. As the front then approaches for the afternoon hours scattered to numerous showers and t'storms are expected to develop for the Wyoming Valley and Poconos region. At this time no severe storms are expected across our forecast area, as SPC has shifted the Marginal Risk category just south and east. The front looks to stall near or just south of our NE PA zones heading into tonight. A wave of low pressure then rides north and east along the boundary on Thursday; this could bring another round of showers to NE PA and/or the southern Catskills, depending on exactly where this front and low pressure center end up. Confidence is low to moderate on expected rainfall and PoPs for NE PA Thursday morning, and for now the stuck with the ensemble (NBM) consensus...which only gave slight chance to low end chance probabilities for rain. KEY MESSAGE 2... For Central NY, Thursday should feature dry weather with decreasing clouds through the day. Temperatures will drop back into the 60s for highs, which is slightly below average. Thursday night will see good radiational cooling conditions with high pressure overhead. Winds will be light and skies mostly clear. Blended in some of the colder guidance into the official forecast for overnight lows. Expect temperatures to drop between the upper 30s to mid-40s for most locations, although a few outlying areas could see mid-30s. Will need to keep a close eye on temperature trends to see if any frost would be possible. High pressure remains in place through the day on Friday, with some increase in clouds later in the afternoon and evening as the next front approaches from the south. High temperatures recover to near seasonable levels, in the mid-60s to low 70s with light southeast winds. KEY MESSAGE 3... The next wave of low pressure rides into the area along and advancing front from the Ohio Valley Friday night into Saturday. This will bring a period of steady, chilly rain to the area in this timeframe. High pressure retreats off to the north and east, but supplies some very cool low level air into the region. Temperatures may hold in the 50s all day Saturday with the overcast and wet conditions. Sunday features morning showers, with some drying and perhaps some breaks of sunshine in the afternoon. Temperatures are still cool, in the 60s for most locations. Another front moves through with more rounds of rain Sunday night into Monday morning; again there could be some drying by Monday afternoon if current timing holds. Seasonable temperatures in the low 70s expected. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The cold front continues its very slow trek south with MVFR ceilings just north of the front, currently impacting ITH/BGM/ELM. These ceilings should lift to VFR in the next hour or two as the front and associated low clouds slide south, and remain VFR through the period. The forecast for this afternoon is tricky as guidance has not done a great job modeling the ceilings across the area. Showers and storms are firing over central PA ahead of the cold front, moving around the ridge of high pressure that is retreating to the SE. Current thinking is a group of showers and storms will follow the curve around the ridge ahead of the cold front and move into the AVP area later this afternoon, with heavy rain bringing brief periods of IFR visby. Some showers may leak north of the front into the BGM/ELM area, but confidence here is low that restrictions will occur. We should see a period of dry weather later this evening before more rain showers move into the AVP tonight into the morning hours. Some periods of MVFR ceilings at AVP may be possible late tonight into the early morning hours with these showers, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. SYR and RME will be VFR through the period. ITH will see MVFR ceilings for the next hour or two before becoming VFR as the low clouds slide south. Outlook: Thursday afternoon through Friday...Mainly VFR. Friday night through Sunday...Periods of rain and embedded thunderstorms likely along with associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJM AVIATION...JTC  665 FXUS66 KPQR 201751 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1049 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 ...Updated aviation discussion... .SYNOPSIS...Dry and warm weather is expected across the region through much of the week into the weekend with high pressure over the Northeast Pacific shifting east into the Pacific NW. Weak systems aloft may bring enhanced cloud cover on some days, but rain chances are minimal. Uncertainty in the forecast increases Sunday into early next week as chances for precipitation return for Memorial Day. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Tuesday...Water vapor satellite imagery this morning shows an amplified upper level trough over the northeast Pacific with northwesterly flow streaming onshore. The GOES nighttime microphysics imagery reveals stratus along the coast, through the lower Columbia River Valley, and backbuilding off the Cascades into the Willamette Valley. Morning clouds are expected to scatter out by the afternoon allowing temperatures to warm again into the lower 70s inland and around 60 degrees at the coast. High pressure will maintain dry conditions through the end of the week. As offshore ridging shifts east later in the week, temperatures will trend warmer, reaching the 60s to near 70 degrees on the coast and upper 70s to mid 80s inland. This will support widespread Minor HeatRisk excepting only the immediate coast. Chances for Moderate HeatRisk on Thursday are 15-35% in Portland and the adjacent northern Willamette Valley, 5-20% in Salem and Albany/Corvallis, and 5% or less elsewhere. Concerns for hazardous weather otherwise remain low. Temperatures on Friday are now trending only a degree or two cooler than Thursday as broad ridging moves over the region. Saturday through the holiday weekend, uncertainty in the evolution and possible break-down of the upper-level ridge yields growing uncertainty in forecast temperatures and precipitation. In general, as the ridge deamplifies, temperatures are more likely to trend cooler through the period, especially by Monday. There continues to be greater consensus of an upper-level trough digging over the NE Pacific on Monday, supporting much cooler temperatures and 40-70% chances for rain across the area. This means there are increasing chances that a front brings widespread rain sometime on Memorial Day. Ensemble clusters still show quite a large range of potential rainfall, so will continue to see how models resolve the pattern into this weekend. -DH/36 && .AVIATION...Satellite imagery as of late Wednesday morning depicts MVFR stratus beginning to break out across the region. Stratus is breaking up faster across the central Oregon coast and central/southern Willamette Valley, while stratus across the Portland/Vancouver Metro Area and north Oregon coast will hold on through about 19-21z Wed. An upper level ridge offshore will support a return of northerly winds and VFR conditions with a FEW/SCT high clouds across the region from this afternoon through the end of the TAF period. North-northwesterly gusts up to 20-25 kt along the coast (strongest near KONP). For the Willamette Valley, north winds generally 10-15 kt except under 10 kt across the Portland/Vancouver Metro Area. Tonight, winds will weaken as pressure gradients ease, and there remains a 10-20% chance for MVFR stratus returning along the coast. KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR stratus breaks out around 19-20z Wed. Afterwards, predominately VFR conditions through the TAF period. Northwesterly winds under 10 kt. -10 && .MARINE...High pressure continues offshore as northerlies are expected to persist through the end of the week. Strongest winds are expected during the afternoon and evening periods as the surface thermal trough strengthens over the northern CA/southern OR coast. More widespread wind gusts to 25 kt are expected later today and again on Thursday as inland temperatures warm. Small Craft conditions for most coastal water zones will persist each afternoon and evening. Seas 6 to 9 feet are expected through the week as well. A Small Craft Advisory is also in place for the Columbia River Bar for this morning due to strong ebb currents. Strong ebb currents are possible during the morning hours each day this week. The summer-like pattern is likely to break down later Sunday as a front approaches the waters by Monday next week. /DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ252-271-272. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ253. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  706 FXUS61 KAKQ 201752 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 152 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Aviation discussion and key messages. Lowered high temperatures across the north tomorrow, but increased them across the south. Lowered temperatures a bit more for Friday and Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Another hot day ahead today, with Thursday also looking quite warm for the southern half of the area. A strong cold front brings the potential for strong to severe storms to northern portions of the area late this evening. 2) An increasingly unsettled pattern takes shape from Thursday through the Memorial Day weekend. Generally cooler to start, with periods of rain Thursday night and Friday, followed by a low-confidence temperature forecast for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 700 AM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Another hot day ahead today, with Thursday also looking quite warm for the southern half of the area. A strong cold front brings the potential for strong to severe storms to northern portions of the area late this evening. High pressure remains centered well offshore, with breezy S-SW flow across the area this morning. Temperatures are quite mild, with readings averaging 70-75 deg F region-wide as of 07z. Another day of near-record highs is forecast this afternoon, with the record of 97F at RIC looking particularly susceptible to being eclipsed. Upper ridging holds for one more day area- wide, as compressional heating maximizes ahead of an approaching cold front. Strong mixing and ongoing drought conditions will continue to allow early morning dewpoints to mix out by afternoon, falling back into the upper 50s to low 60s and keeping max heat index values generally capped right around actual high air temperatures, which will once again range from the mid to upper 90s inland to the lower 90s closer to the coast under a mostly sunny sky. As for the well-advertised cold front, multi-model consensus continues to slow its arrival, lagging into later this evening across the north, pushing into southern VA south of US-460 into NE NC later tomorrow morning/early afternoon. 00z CAMs continue to show sparse convection only reaching the far northern and western portions of the area, likely staying out of the RIC metro through much of Wednesday evening. SPC has more or less maintained a Day 1 Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for the northern half of the forecast area, though the risk of severe storms over the local area still looks quite marginal. Given the slower timing of the front, it still appears that the better instability and forcing remain to our N/NW. Storm timing over the local area is quite likely to hold off long enough that cells will start to dissipate as they arrive after 00z tonight into early Thursday morning. That said, there remains some potential for a few stronger to severe storms, mainly for far northern portions of the area north of Richmond, over to the Northern Neck, and the MD Eastern Shore. Specifically, the best chance of stronger storms likely comes in the event of convective outflows from more widespread storms to our NNW. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat with any storms that can penetrate the area, though mid-level lapse rates do steepen to 6.5-7 C/km as low levels moisten up this evening. Therefore, an isolated instance of large hail cannot be completely ruled out. KEY MESSAGE 2...An increasingly unsettled pattern takes shape from Thursday through the Memorial Day weekend. Generally cooler to start, with periods of rain Thursday night and Friday, followed by a low-confidence temperature forecast for the weekend. A shortwave trough is still forecast to eject northeast across the northern Plains and upper Midwest late tonight, pushing into Ontario and Quebec Thursday. This will serve to dampen the SE ridge, while allowing cool high pressure to settle over the Great Lakes and interior Northeast. Meanwhile, the cold front pushes south through the rest of the area Thursday. The slower frontal timing will allow much of the southern half of the area, mainly south of US-460, to sneak out another very warm day ahead of the boundary as it slowly drops south into the Carolinas later Thursday into Friday. While highs remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the northern half of the area, highs well into the 80s are forecast across south-central and southeast VA into northeast NC. Increasing overrunning moisture and quickly rising PW values will allow rain chances to ramp up quickly Thursday afternoon, especially along and south of US-58. Showers and scattered storms are expected to develop and focus along the front as it drops across the southern third of the area Thursday afternoon into Thu evening, eventually settling over the Carolinas on Friday. In its wake, an emerging cool air/CAD wedge setup takes hold for Friday. Forecast highs remain in the 60s to 70s Friday with periods of mainly stratiform light rain and drizzle. There is still some uncertainty with respect to the durability of the cool air/CAD wedge setup heading into the weekend. Namely, because of the mid-level ridging, there is a growing signal that the warm front remains pinned to our south a bit longer, therefore holding the wedge airmass in place into the weekend. This injects a bit more uncertainty into temperatures for Saturday, and possibly Sunday as well, as stable, low-level NE marine flow persists. Eventually, the warm front does lift back north over the area to fully erode the CAD airmass Sunday and Monday. Stagnant flow will then likely result in that weakening frontal boundary getting hung up over northern portions of the area late in the holiday weekend into early next week. This leads to the potential for continued unsettled conditions lingering throughout the holiday weekend. Cooler temperatures than currently in the forecast are quite possible for both Saturday and Sunday, though quick warming is likely heading into early next week as mid-level ridging rebuilds east of the Rockies. The unsettled pattern will allow for rain chances virtually every day from Thursday through the middle of next week. While the weekend certainly doesn't look to be a washout, rain chances will be higher than they've been of late each day into the middle of next week. Hopefully holiday plans won't be interrupted, but at this stage in the ongoing drought, any rainfall is welcome! && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 150 PM EDT Wednesday VFR conditions prevail through the daylight hours into the first part of the night. Generally clear skies to start off the period with increasing clouds from the NW later this afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Mainly dry conditions are expected outside of a very low chance for a shower or storm at RIC and SBY ~03z. Later tonight into Thursday morning, clouds will continue to lower as the front drops into the local area, with MVFR CIGs reaching SBY ~09z, RIC ~11z, and PHF ~14z (ORF and ECG likely stay VFR throughout the period). CIGs may drop to IFR at SBY, especially after 11z. Rain chances (north) and shower/storm chances (south) also increase late Thursday morning/early afternoon. SW winds ~10kt, with occasional gusts to 20 kt through this afternoon. Winds become NE later tonight as the front drops south. Outlook: Sub-VFR CIGs (potentially widespread IFR) are likely later Thursday through at least Saturday for a majority of the area as a cool, wedge airmass develops over the area. Sub-VFR may linger through Sunday, especially NW. Conditions also become unsettled with numerous chances for rain later Thursday through a majority of the weekend. && .MARINE... As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA conditions are expected across the local waters today and tonight. - A front crosses the waters Thursday morning, bringing the next chance at SCA conditions from Thursday through Friday due to NE winds of 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. High pressure remains stretched across the Southeast this morning, producing SW winds of 10-15 kts across the local waters. This stagnant pattern will allow winds to remain primarily SSW around 10 to 15 kt. with some gusts to 20 kts in the Bay and coastal waters late this afternoon and into this evening. This pattern will finally start to break down as a cold front approaches the area late tonight into Thursday morning. This cold front is currently forecast to cross the waters some time early Thursday with increasing NE winds in its wake. Guidance continues to trend upwards with wind speeds, as the front is forecast to stall across our just south of our area. Gradient winds will remain elevated through Friday, but may struggle to increase as much in the southern waters due to the location of the front. NE winds will average 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt from Thursday through Friday. SCAs appear likely for portions of the bay (due to winds) and coastal waters N of the VA-NC border (due to seas building to 5-6 ft behind the front). Local wind probabilities show a relatively high (60-90%) chance of sustained 18 kt winds on the middle/lower bay from Thu-Fri. At this time, the front is progged to lift north Friday night, which will allow winds to diminish this weekend as the gradient relaxes some. If the front lifts more slowly on Friday night into Saturday, the northern waters could still see SCA winds linger through portions of Saturday. There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches (including Ocean City, MD) today, with a low risk elsewhere. With increasing winds and seas associated with a frontal passage on Thursday, all beaches will see a moderate rip current risk. Increasing seas and lingering stronger winds in the wake of the front will produce a high rip risk at all beaches to end the week on Friday. && .CLIMATE... As of 950 PM EDT Tuesday... Tue 5/19: Richmond tied a record high min (71), and SBY also tied the record high min (70). No record high highs were set or tied. Another day of near-record to record- breaking heat is expected today, both for record highs and record high minimum temperatures. See below for reference. Record High Temps for Wed 5/20: Record High/Year Location 5/20 -------- ---- Richmond 97 (2022) Norfolk 98 (1996) Salisbury 98 (1911) Eliz. City 98 (1996) Record High Min Temps for Wed 5/20: Record High Min T/Year Location 5/20 -------- ---- Richmond 71 (2018) Norfolk 73 (1996) Salisbury 70 (2018) Eliz. City 73 (2018) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Thursday to 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ632-634-639-650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ654-656. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJB/MAM AVIATION...AJB MARINE...ERI/NB CLIMATE...LKB/MAM  731 FXUS64 KMEG 201753 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1253 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1252 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Off and on shower and thunderstorm chances will persist each day over the next 7 days. - Temperatures will be near normal with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the 60s. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A gloomy Wednesday is on display with a persistent stratus shield moving north/northwest and current temperatures mostly in the 70s. The latest KNQA radar sweep denotes scattered showers moving north situated along yesterday's cold front, which continues to wobble along I-40. Areas south of this boundary have remained mostly dry today, though as this boundary continues to wobble further south, an uptick pop-up showers with occasional rumbles of thunder will continue moving over areas south of I-40. A shortwave currently just west of our area, over central Arkansas, will migrate east, where CAMs denote another wave of showers this afternoon into mid-evening. At the surface, the aforementioned front will continue to wobble north and south, become stationary, lift north as a warm front, and pretty much keep wet and unsettled conditions across the Mid- South over at least the next 7 days. Aloft, current quazi-zonal flow will begin to transition more southwest by tomorrow as a low pressure system begins to push in near Baja California. As this upper-low continues to push east, eventually approaching western Texas by the Memorial Day weekend, and embedded several shortwaves eject in from the west, they will act as another lifting mechanism for continued showers and occasional thunderstorms. Severe chances are expected to be very meager as we remain socked in, and there isn't much change in the upper or surface level pattern. Friday will be the only day where we could see an uptick in instability as a surface low and more potent shortwave moves over our forecast area and heights begin to fall slightly. Though severe weather is not expected, as latest LREF probs have a <20% chance of >500 J/kg of SBCAPE and >30 kts of bulk shear, however, an uptick and thunder and heavy downpours are anticipated Friday. With persistent rainfall and PWATs remaining around 1.6-1.8", nearing the 90th percentile for this time of the year, over the next 7 days, we will likely run into a nuisance and potentially a marginal flash flooding problem. Looking in the probabilistic realm, latest LREF guidance has has a 35-50% chance of precipitation totals exceeding 4" through Tuesday. In the deterministic realm, precipitation totals equate to 3-4" with locally higher amounts. Be sure to be cognizant of potential ponding across the Mid-South into at least the middle of next week. Due to persistent moisture, cloud cover, and precipitation temperatures will reach into the 70s and to lower 80s, however, dewpoints will remain in the 60s to 70s, leading to muggy conditions over the next week or so. AEH && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A weak cold front is situated from near PHT-MEM-LLQ at 17z. This front will slowly edge southeast and stall over northeast Mississippi later tonight. Numerous SHRAs and scattered TSRAs are expected generally along and southeast of the front this afternoon into early this evening. TSRAs will mainly impact TUP with lesser chances at MEM and MKL. Expect low clouds across the region with a diurnal cycle of generally MVFR cigs during the afternoon/evening and IFR cigs during the overnight and early morning. Winds will be light, N/NE behind the front and light and variable or light SE ahead of the front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1252 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 No major fire danger concerns will exist for the foreseeable future, with minimum relative humidity values remaining above 40%. Wetting rain chances will remain in the forecast over the next 7 days as a wet and unsettled pattern persists. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...SJM  684 FXUS66 KMTR 201752 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1052 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1036 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 - Diurnally driven winds, with onshore winds during the afternoon and early evening. - Above normal temperatures continue through midweek with seasonal temperatures returning late week. - Warm and dry weather through Thursday leads to elevated fire weather concerns for the interior Bay Area and Central Coast. && .UPDATE... Issued at 940 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 Temperatures in the lower elevations are up to 10 degrees cooler compared to this time yesterday. This is thanks to a deeper marine layer in place and lack of stronger offshore winds. Thus, maximum temperatures may be cooler than yesterday as a result. However, very dry conditions will persist in the higher terrain generally above 1,000 feet. RGass && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1036 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 (Tonight through Thursday) Little change in the forecast as high pressure slowly creeps into Northern California today. Satellite imagery this evening shows high clouds sliding down the West Coast, with much of the Bay Area likely seeing some cirrus. With the current data, temperatures look to be on track; however, if we're not able to get radiational cooling, our temperatures for tonight might be low/cool. This would be because the clouds act as blanket, allowing less heat to escape at night. It'll be something to keep an eye on over the next few hours. In terms of Wednesday, if you guessed, "No pattern change. Ha, this means another day of warmer weather", you'd be correct! A potential fly in the ointment is if the marine layer attempts to manifest around 500 feet. This might keep temperatures a few degrees cooler along the immediate coast, but elsewhere temperatures should be similar to Tuesday, perhaps a few degrees higher. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1036 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday) No major changes to the extended forecast. Upper level troughing looks to keep hold over the western US, while the Pacific high pushes even more into northern California on Thursday. With the high being a bit more pronounced, another warm day will be on tap. After that, guidance has flow becoming quasi-zonal for a brief period before troughing returns on Friday. The marine layer looks to be around 500ft on Thursday, deepening to around 1000ft by Friday and then lasting through the weekend. With onshore flow, a deeper marine layer, and troughing through the weekend the NBM's temperatures are bit too warm. Opted to start trending towards slightly cooler temperatures given the ensembles and cluster analysis. But there is a chance ridging wins out and temperatures might warmer. Definitely something to keep an eye on over the next few days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1048 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions prevails across our region through the day. Winds will increase locally by the afternoon and are expected to decrease overnight. High-level clouds will continue to pass in patches overhead as well. High confidence for MVFR ceilings from the coastal stratus cloud deck to push onshore impacting KHAF, KMRY, and KSNS tonight. Other sites will most likely see a few to scattered deck, if any at all. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Winds will be breezy through the afternoon with some local gusts reaching up to 20kts. Low-level stratus (SCT006) may begin to impact the terminal airspace early Thursday morning, though any developing cloud deck is expected to remain few to scattered. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions with a gentleto moderate breeze is forecast through the afternoon and evening hours. The coastal stratus may begin its push onshore as early as 06Z, but higher confidence for it to deepen by 07-09Z Thursday resulting in IFR ceilings. Visibility may also drop to MVFR with the lower cloud deck. Conditions should shift back to MVFR-VFR by 16Z as the stratus begins to mix out of the area. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 940 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 A weak frontal boundary to the north will maintain fresh to strong northerly breezes and rough seas over the outer waters north of Pigeon Point through early Thursday. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh northerly breezes and moderate seas will prevail. Conditions improve into the weekend as seas and northwesterly breezes become moderate. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Navarrete MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  756 FXUS61 KCAR 201754 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 154 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Near freezing temperatures over the north Thursday night and Friday night may lead to widespread frost, especially in colder valleys. This may lead to damage to sensitive vegetation. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Dry airmass will continue to move into the region on northerly flow on Friday. 1035mb sfc high pressure will be building south out of Canada and depending on how quickly it crests over the state will determine how low temps can fall. Current thinking is that while airmass will be very slowly moderating from Friday morning continued frost threat remains for Saturday morning. With high pressure axis just to the west of CWA late Thursday night and again Friday night, lower valleys should decouple bringing ideal radiational cooling to the area late. This should result in areas of frost Thursday night and widespread frost Friday night over northern Aroostook, northern Piscataquis and northern Somerset counties. This will bring damage to any outdoor plants and vegetation over these areas. Frost looks likely to the north and east of the Central Highlands. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Rest of this afternoon...VFR with gusty W wind. Isld -shra. Tonight through Thursday night...High confidence in VFR through the period. W to NW wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt through Thursday, then light and variable Thursday night. Friday-Saturday night...VFR. NW winds 10-15kts gusting to 25kts Friday, otherwise NW 5-10kts. Sunday...VFR. S winds 5-15kts. Sunday night-Monday...VFR/MVFR Sunday night, possibly dropping to IFR Monday in rain. SSE winds 5-10kts. && .MARINE... Winds/seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Thursday night. Winds and seas likely to remain below small craft levels through early next week. Winds should remain well below SCA levels this weekend with winds around 5kts and seas 1-2 feet or less. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...21/TWD AVIATION...21/TWD  794 FXUS62 KILM 201755 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 155 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for the 18Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Temperatures to remain above normal through Thursday, especially inland. 2) Rain chances should increase, especially inland, beginning Thursday as a front stalls in the Carolinas. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures to remain above normal through Thursday, especially inland. Deep high pressure over the area with unseasonably warm mid- level temperatures will help sustain above normal temperatures through Thursday, especially well inland closer to I-95. Highs for Florence and Lumberton have been 90+ since May 17, so a 5-day streak would eclipse this year's earlier streak of 4 days of 90+ degree temps from April 15-18. Coastal areas will remain significantly cooler due to the southerly winds bringing cooler air from off the Atlantic inland. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances should increase, especially inland, beginning Thursday as a front stalls in the Carolinas. Outside of widely scattered sea breeze convection Thursday afternoon, most of daytime Thursday will remain dry. A front dropping south late in the day before stalling, combined with increasing PWATs due to influx of Gulf moisture with developing low- level southerly flow, will slowly increase rain chances Thursday night into Friday. As CAD wedge develops to our northwest Friday into the weekend, a coastal trough/front lingers across the eastern Carolinas maintaining unsettled weather and likely pops Friday through Sunday with PWATs of 1.5+" in place. While weak impulses aloft and low-level isentropic lift will aid in our elevated rain chances Friday - Sunday, precipitation coverage will be more scattered in nature with potential for brief pockets convective, slightly heavier, rain rates. Looking at LREF (ensemble) guidance, a decent total QPF range remains for Thursday through Sunday, ranging from 0.5" to 2" near I-95 corridor and 0.2" to 1.25" close to the coast. Our area can certainly use the rain to help with our ongoing severe-extreme drought conditions. Rain chances continue into early next week in WAA regime following breakdown of the CAD, although more uncertainty exists as offshore ridge attempts to build westward. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High confidence in mainly VFR conditions thru the 18Z TAF period, especially near the coast at KCRE/KMYR/KILM. The best chance of restrictions from fog/low clouds overnight (mainly 08-12Z) looks to be inland at KLBT but model guidance isn't very agreeable, likely due to the limited/shallow nature of the moisture. Thus, confidence remains low. Extended Forecast...Moderate confidence in MVFR/IFR vsbys/ceilings each morning, generally in the 08z-12z timeframe. Restrictions are possible due to showers/storms starting Thu but moreso starting Fri. && .MARINE... Through Thursday...High confidence in mainly benign, summer- like conditions due to prevailing Bermuda high pressure. Southerly winds will mostly be 10-15 kt or less, although locally higher near the Gulf Stream beyond 20 nm tonight and near the coast due to the sea breeze Thursday afternoon. Waves will continue to be dominated by 2- 4 foot, 8-9 second southeast swells. Thursday Night through Monday...Bermuda high pressure offshore will maintain southerly winds across the local waters Thursday night into early next week. Wind speeds generally in the 10-15 kts range throughout the period, with gusts near 20 kts for the 20-60nm waters. Seas fairly steady around 3 ft out to 20nm, and 4 ft out to 60nm, primarily due to SE swell. Lingering front inland through the weekend, along with WAA regime, will lead to daily rain and thunderstorm chances, particularly during overnight hours for the coastal waters starting Friday night. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM KEY MESSAGES...RJB/VAO DISCUSSION...RJB/VAO AVIATION...RJB MARINE...RJB/VAO  799 FXUS63 KAPX 201755 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 155 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freeze conditions over eastern upper and interior northern lower locations tonight, with frost potential elsewhere - Frost potential for some spots Thursday night into Friday morning, with high fire danger potential Friday afternoon - Gradual warming trend through the weekend, next rain chances arrive late Friday into early Saturday and will linger through Sunday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 136 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Current surface analysis show cooler air filtering in under generally northwest winds as a broad surface high seeps east over the northern plains towards the Great Lakes. Satellite depicts some lingering lower level moisture upstream (Ontario CAN and WI/MN) within this cooler airmass. In the upper levels, a quasi -PNA is seen with a few pockets of more concentrated energy moving through the larger flow over the northern Rockies and into southeastern CAN. This has somewhat flattened the upper ridging, resulting in mostly zonal flow over northern MI which will linger into tonight and early Friday. With high confidence in the center of the surface high seeping over the U.P. of MI tonight, chances for temperatures to dip to near freezing or below do exist. However, where the coldest temperatures are for the longest duration will be up to cloud cover. Lingering lower level moisture will still exist tonight, with even some mid-high level clouds moving over northern lower early in the night as well. Without a dry column through much of the night, chances for longer duration freezing temperatures and/or widespread hard freeze conditions decrease. This isn't to say freezing temperatures won't be seen, in fact there is high confidence that temperatures will dip to freezing or just below over the typical interior cold spots for at least 2 to 4 hours. Where ideal conditions align (interior spots that have clear skies the whole night and larger areas of eastern upper), temperatures could dip into the high 20s. Frost conditions will be likely over the remainder of the area under this cooler airmass. Not only will cloud cover work to keep temperatures warmer, but northeast to east winds over areas along and south of M-55 will also remain elevated enough to keep the airmass mixed and temperatures remaining above freezing. Skies will clear during the day on Thursday, allowing for temperatures to warm a few degrees. Winds will be diurnally driven, becoming breezy in the afternoon hours as mixing heights rise. Lake breezes will be seen in the afternoon/evening hours as well, which could shift directions around. Friday, upper troughing over the western US will start to organize and become negatively tilted as it reaches the northern plains. Ahead of this, the locally amplified upper pattern will move an upper ridge over northern MI. Although winds aloft will be weaker, a strengthening lower level gradient will be seen as features organize in the plains. Initial vertical profiles over northern MI show ample dry air in the lower levels with east winds of 15 to 20 mph and possible frequent gusts up to 25 to 30 mph Friday afternoon ahead of this system. This would result in high fire danger concerns for Friday afternoon, especially after a couple days of drying. Uncertainty exists with how low RHs will go due to cooler air off of Lake Huron moving inland, and the duration and exact values of winds. Early Saturday morning, deep gulf moisture will eventually work its way over northern MI from the south and west. Widespread rain chances return for the weekend, with storm chances late Saturday and/or Sunday. Widespread cloud cover Saturday and east winds could keep temperatures from warming a fewmore degrees, however temperatures will rise into the high 60s and 70s Sunday. Moisture and warmer temperatures will linger into early next week, without clear signals of widespread showers and storms. An amplified upper ridge will reach northern MI near the end of the period, signaling a continuation to the warmth but a potential break in precipitation chances mid to late next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1251 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR likely to prevail through the TAF period. Occasional drops to MVFR cigs possible this afternoon for most sites, esp south of M-32. Winds largely NW/N this afternoon 10-15kts (though non-zero chance of lake breeze at MBL) gusting as high as 20-25kts, diminishing to 5- 10kts or less after dark, with land breezes possible overnight...as high pressure moves across the eastern UP/Tip of the Mitten region. Do wonder about fog development tonight, and have alluded to this at MBL/APN for now. Winds Thursday morning likely more NE to E with MVFR cigs possible. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ016>018- 020-021-024>026-030>036-041-042-088-099. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ022-023- 027>029-086-087-095-096. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ345>348. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ321- 322. && $$ DISCUSSION...ELD AVIATION...FEF  815 FXUS63 KLMK 201755 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 155 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Periods of showers and storms will move across southern Indiana and portions of north-central Kentucky this morning. Heavy rainfall will be possible with localized flooding across southern Indiana. * Another round of showers and storms is expected this afternoon. A marginal risk of strong/severe storms exists across the east- central and eastern Kentucky with damaging winds being the main threat. * Busy weather pattern will ramp back up late Thursday and through the holiday weekend with episodic bouts of showers/storms with heavy, but welcome rainfall. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 316 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Broad southwest flow continues aloft across the region this morning. A small perturbation moving northeast within this flow has helped kick off a persistent band of showers/storms from western Kentucky into southwestern Indiana. This corridor of convection is rooted within the low-level jet axis and also resides in a PWAT plume extending from west TN northeastward into southern Indiana. Within this corridor PWAT values are running in the 1.5-1.9 inch range. This convection will move off to the northeast through the remainder of the overnight hours and move across southern Indiana where recent rainfall has fallen in the last 24-36 hours. The convection has generated some cool outflow which is surging eastward toward the I- 65 corridor. PWAT values do decrease markedly east of the I-65 corridor. Given that we have some elevated instability in the I-65 corridor and points west, expect this outflow to generate some additional shower/storms from Hartford northeast through the Louisville metro over the next few hours. Shear remains very marginal here, so severe weather is not anticipated. However, a swath of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall will move across saturated soils over southern Indiana and may produce some local hydro issues this morning. Current flood watch over southern Indiana continues to look good and no headline changes will be made with this forecast. Moving into the daytime hours, surface cold front off to our west this morning will move into the region this morning and into the afternoon hours. As this occurs, another small perturbation aloft will move northeast across the region and produce another round of convection across the region. As the cold front heads eastward through Kentucky, some diurnal heating will be noted across the central and eastern portions of the forecast area. MLCAPE is forecast to rise into the 800-1300 J/kg range this afternoon. Model soundings show rather poor mid-level lapse rates, but the low-level lapse rates are pretty steep. That, along with convergence along the front should allow widespread showers with some embedded thunderstorms to track across the region. Some of the storms could be strong this afternoon, mainly east of the I-65 corridor. Main threats will be heavy rainfall and gusty thunderstorm winds. Highs today will feature a gradient with readings only reaching the low- mid 70s across the west, with upper 70s to lower 80s out in the I-75 corridor. Surface cold front is expected to continue eastward this evening with showers ending from northwest to the southeast into the late overnight period. Cool northerly flow will usher in some cooler air into the region. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-upper 50s across southern Indiana with lower 60s across southern Kentucky. For Thursday, we'll see a brief pause in the wet weather as the front stalls out to our south. Blended PoPs keep some chances of showers down across southernKY, but this looks a bit too aggressive and I expect those PoPs to decrease over the next few runs. Highs on Thursday will be a little cooler than normal with readings only reaching the lower 70s over southern Indiana and the northern half of Kentucky. Mid-upper 70s will be found over the southern part of Kentucky. The stalled out front will start to return northward late Thursday night as a warm front. Ahead of that warm front, another round of showers is likely to develop in advance of that feature. Lows will range from the upper 50s over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky to the lower 60s over southern Kentucky. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 316 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 For the extended portion of the forecast period, unsettled weather looks likely for Friday and through the Memorial Day weekend as broad southwest flow will remain in place across the region. Several weak perturbations aloft will move through the region bringing episodic bouts/rounds of showers and storms to the region. Now, this doesn't appear to be a total washout in all places. However, several rounds of showers/storms will be moving across the region and will bring heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds at times. The upper level pattern will flatten out a bit by Monday with a possible split flow pattern developing as we may get a cut off low to develop over portions of Texas. Confluent flow east of the cutoff low across the Ohio Valley will allow a frontal boundary to remain nearly stationary across the region and this feature will be a focus of renewed convective development through the end of the forecast period. Moisture transport into the region will be high and PWATs will be running well above climatology here. So periods of heavy rainfall are expected. This rainfall will be welcome to much of Kentucky that has seen a rather dry period of weather of late. QPF amounts of 2-4 inches will be possible across the region with locally higher amounts in areas that see training. While much of this rainfall could see good infiltration into the ground, we could end up seeing some hydro problems develop in areas that have seen recent rainfall. Highs on Friday will generally be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Temperatures for Saturday through Tuesday will see daytime highs mainly in the lower 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. Looking past the 7 day period, longer range guidance suggests that we could see some high latitude blocking redevelop over Canada which will result in a fairly amplified flow pattern across the CONUS. There is a pretty decent signal in the data suggesting above normal rainfall closing out May and heading into early June, though temperatures look to remain seasonal through this time frame. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 155 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Widespread rain showers in the west and scattered storms in the east will continue throughout the afternoon, with storms turning into showers later. Light winds are generally shifting from the north or will be variable at times within gusty showers or storms this afternoon. Over the next several hours, clouds linger and lower from NW to SE, with MVFR-IFR conditions expected after sunset for everyone. Light rain showers will slowly diminish overnight, with LEX/RGA keeping rain showers around the longest. These will remain light to moderate through the night and into tomorrow. IFR ceilings remain in the early morning, with ceilings slowly improving in the NW. LEX/RGA may remain IFR through the end of the TAF period. Overall, clouds remain Thursday afternoon with MVFR/IFR conditions expected. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for KYZ032. IN...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT /1 PMCDT/ this afternoon for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJ LONG TERM...MJ AVIATION...BKF  804 FXUS65 KCYS 201755 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1155 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chilly temperatures will continue for the next several days. Another round of freezing temperatures expected this morning in areas with snow cover, with patchy frost and fog elsewhere. - Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue through Wednesday night. A more widespread round of showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday into Friday. - Slightly above average temperatures and pleasant weather expected for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 215 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Current KCYS radar loop shows some light rain showers with a little bit of snow above 7500 feet across the far southeast Wyoming near Cheyenne and Pine Bluffs and the southern Nebraska Panhandle early this morning. The upper level trough axis near the Utah border and WAA aloft out ahead of it is responsible for this activity. Periods of light rain showers will likely continue this morning and into the early afternoon hours with breaks at times. Watching some fog across the I-80 Summit also and will likely need a Dense Fog Advisory shortly since the precipitation appears to have shifted to the east. Southeast winds should continue for the next 6 hours over the Summit, so do not expect the fog to lift until midmorning. Otherwise, Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories continue for most of southeast Wyoming and Sioux County over western Nebraska. Slow warming trend will continue for today and Thursday as a long wave trough settles into the western third of the United States. Carbon county will rebound today with highs in the upper 40s to middle 50s with recent webcams showing rapid snow melt. There are still areas with deep snow pack, and those locations will likely still make it into the middle 40s. Kept 20 to 40 percent POP for this afternoon with some weak WAA aloft continuing through the day but better instability should keep widely scattered rain showers and isolated thunder going through this evening. Not as cold tonight with lows in the 30s to low 40s across most of the high plains, and upper 20s to low 30s for Carbon and Albany counties. Later on Thursday, models show a potent clipper system digging south out of Alberta Canada and slowing down over the region. Will have to monitor this system for additional mountain snowfall, but expect most of the lower elevations to stay as rainfall. The system has trended a little colder compared to yesterday, with rain/snow mix down to 6500 feet...but any accumulations should be minimal for Laramie and Rawlins with generally no impacts on area roadways. Good low to midlevel forcing with this system, and daytime instability will aid in shower and thunderstorm development with CAPE values between 400 to 800 j/kg. Could see some decent rainfall amounts into Friday, with 25th to 50th percentile QPF amounts between a quarter inch and half inch. Some places across western Nebraska could even see up to 1 inch of rainfall from this system depending on the coverage of deep convection. Increased POP above 75 percent for most of the area with the good chance for another much-needed wetting rainfall. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 139 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 An active and summer-like weather pattern is expected to take shape Friday through most of next week. Upper-level trough continued Friday and Saturday before zonal flow returns for Sunday and Monday. The next best chance for upper-level troughing looks to be Tuesday through the end of the week as a deep, upper-level trough near the West Coast pushes eastwards through mid-week. The 500mb flow will feature a very similar progression throughout the next several days, but isolated vorticity lobes will pass across the CWA, leading to increasing synoptic ascent despite the largely zonal upper-level flow and large-scale ridging late in the week. Westerly to southwesterly flow will dominate at 700mb Friday through much of the upcoming week, with moisture continuing to advect in with the 700mb from the Pacific Ocean just southwest of southern California. Despite the influx of moisture, the NAEFS Mean suggests that Precipitable Water values will remain seasonal for this time of year, so significant rainfall is not expected at this time though still likely more than the region has seen throughout much of this "winter" season. Looking at 700mb temperatures, a warming trend is expected Friday through much of the week, with 700mb temperatures over 10C returning for much of the region early next week. Surface temperatures will also see a warming trend through the weekend and into next week, with a small potential for slightly warmer than average temperatures, favored by the NAEFS Mean 700mb Temperatures being in the 90th percentile for isolated portions of the CWA. While every day in the longer term forecast will feature some chance for isolated, afternoon showers and storms, as is quite typical with a summer-like pattern, Friday looks to be the most active day with the best potential for isolated, strong to severe thunderstorms. The next best day for precipitation will be Wednesday as the next upper- level trough is progged to push into the region. Looking at Friday, a messy, 700mb low will slowly get its act together in the morning hours becoming a closed low by late morning. An attendant surface low will push northeast out of northeastern Colorado, placing the CWA on the cooler side of the system as a whole. However, 700mb warm air advection is expected to start by the early afternoon hours as warmer temperatures further south start to push north as the first upper-level short-wave trough move off to the northeast and the second slowly swings across the Intermountain West for the overnight hours. Therefore, during the day, there will be favorable ascent in the form of 500mb vorticity maxima moving across the region combined with 700mb WAA, residual ascent associated with the surface low, then finally a secondary, weaker cold front as the second short-wave pushes through the region overnight Friday into early Saturday morning. Hires guidance does not quite reach Friday afternoon and evening at this time, but the NAM suggests anywhere from 200 to 700 J/kg of MUCAPE across the western Nebraska Panhandle. This would be enough, combined with the synoptic ascent across the region, to get at least a few rumbles of thunder, but also the possibility of very gusty winds and possibly some isolated hail. It will be interesting to see how hires guidance depicts this system as it gets into the time range, especially since forecast NAM soundings suggest a very wet environment with very strong 0 to 3km shear. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1145 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Low cloud cover over the High Plains is breaking up this afternoon with gusty southerly winds continuing. Scattered showers will continue until about 00z to 02z, with a few rumbles of thunder possible as well. PROB30 groups are present for all High Plains terminals to handle this possibility. Gusty southerly winds will continue overnight tonight. During periods of lulls in the wind at the surface, expect to find significant LLWS. Moisture return overnight will also promote another round of low clouds and/or fog. Confidence is highest in IFR conditions at CYS and SNY, with MVFR most likely at BFF and AIA. A reduced flight category cannot be ruled out at LAR. This should clear by late morning ahead of a more widespread round of showers and isolated thunderstorms moving in from the west towards the end of the TAF period. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...AM AVIATION...MN  872 FXUS64 KMOB 201757 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1257 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Rain chances increase throughout the week, especially over the western half of the forecast area. - Localized patchy dense fog will be possible late tonight into Thursday morning and late Thursday night into Friday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Light southerly surface winds will occur through the remainder of the week as a surface ridge remains intact across the southeast states and northeast Gulf. Atmospheric moisture will remain moderate with PWATs generally ranging from 1.5 to 2.0 inches. A continuous stream of upper mini-shortwaves moving over the lower Mississippi river in a deep southwesterly flow will result in a steady increase in shower and thunderstorm activity throughout the week, with the highest chances of precipitation occurring along and west of I-65. Isolated to low-end scattered showers and storms are forecast this afternoon across our inland areas, followed by isolated to scattered showers and storms, potentially numerous over southeast Mississippi, for Thursday. Scattered to widespread showers and storms are then expected Friday and Saturday, again with the highest chances occurring along and west of I-65. The light southerly wind flow mentioned earlier persisting all week does maintain some boundary-layer moisture across our area that should result in patchy to areas of late night/early morning fog over the course of the week. Visibilities are expected to lower to between 1 to 3 miles across much of the area late overnight into early morning, with patchy dense fog not being ruled out. Due to low confidence in the specific locations potentially being impacted by areas of dense fog, we will just need to see how thing unfold before needing any Dense Fog Advisories. High temperatures inland will reach the middle 80s to lower 90s today and Thursday. These highs will be about 3 to 6 degrees above normal. Due to the increase in clouds and rain chances Friday and Saturday, highs will return closer to normal values. Lows however will remain steady through Saturday with upper 60s to lower 70s inland and middle 70s along the coast. These lows will be about 6 to 11 degrees above normal. /22 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 MVFR to VFR ceilings through much of the period with isolated showers and storms mainly across northwest portions of the area. IFR to LIFR will again be possible across interior portions of the area tonight. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 109 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 71 86 72 84 / 10 40 40 80 Pensacola 73 86 74 83 / 0 20 20 50 Destin 73 85 75 84 / 0 10 10 20 Evergreen 69 90 69 86 / 20 30 10 60 Waynesboro 69 87 70 82 / 30 60 50 100 Camden 69 88 69 83 / 30 50 30 80 Crestview 68 90 69 88 / 0 10 10 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$