153 FXUS66 KLOX 201611 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 911 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 .SYNOPSIS...20/858 AM. Light offshore flow will continue this morning and will bring one more sunny and warm day. Beginning Thursday there will be a return to cooler May Grey conditions which will last through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...20/911 AM. ***UPDATE*** Light offshore flow continues this morning across LA/Ventura Counties and the offshore waters and islands. However, a low stratus layer is advancing down the coast from Monterey pushing cooler air into the Central Coast. So the trends today across our forecast area are split between 1-3 degrees of warming in the south and 3-6 degrees of cooling along the Central Coast. By tomorrow cooling will reach all areas with the exception of the Antelope Valley which will take an additional day before cooling begins there. Overall, no significant changes to the forecast expected, with general cooling through Friday and increasing amounts of morning low clouds and fog across coast and valleys, then little change over the weekend. ***From Previous Discussion*** Not much in the way of weather for the short term (or the long term for that matter). At the upper levels the base of a weak pos tilt trof will be over Srn CA with hgts around 576 dam. At the sfc there will be weak offshore flow this morning but then there will be increasing onshore flow through Friday both to the east and north. By Friday the onshore push will be moderate to strong. Skies will be clear today. Some low clouds will develop tonight but will likely only affect the Central Coast and the LA county coast. By Friday most of the csts and some of the lower vlys will wake up to low clouds. The SBA south coast will have a local offshore push and this should keep that area stratus free. Aside from the stratus and some high clouds Thursday night skies will be mostly clear. Today will be the warmest day with most areas gaining 1 or 2 degrees on ydy's very warm readings. Most csts will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s with the furthest inland coastal areas seeing upper 80s. The vlys will sizzle with reading a couple degrees either side of 90. These max temps are about 10 degrees over normal. The switch to onshore flow will bring 4 to 8 degrees of cooling to the area both Thursday and Friday. This cooling will bring below normal temps to the near shore areas and near normal temps over the rest of the csts and vlys. There will be weak offshore winds this morning but the rest of the period will have standard afternoon sea breezes. One exception to this may be southwest Santa Barbara County where a 2-4mb offshore gradient during the overnight hours will likely create nightly Sundowners with winds gusting between 25 and 40 mph at times, particularly tonight and Thursday night. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...20/229 AM. Very May like weather will be the norm for the 4 day xtnd period. Saggy-baggy troffing will cover most of the state through the period. At the sfc there will be moderate to strong onshore flow to the east and weak to moderate onshore flow to the north. There will be a good dose of night through morning low clouds across most of the coast and many vly areas every day. Due to the strength of the onshore flow some beaches may not clear at all. The strong onshore flow in the afternoon will generate stronger than normal sea breezes as well as gusty west winds in the Antelope Vly. Additionally the western portion of the SBA south coast will see varying degrees of north winds each evening. Most areas will cool 1 or 2 degrees each day except perhaps 2 to 4 degrees on Tuesday. Most csts will see max temps in the mid 60s to mid 70s each day with upper 70s to lower 80s in the vlys. Max temps will mostly end up a few degrees below normal across the csts/vlys and the mtns and far interior will end up a few degrees over normal. && .AVIATION...20/1125Z. At 0835Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a sfc based inversion with a top of 900 ft with a temperature of 26 C. High confidence in CAVU TAFs. There is a 20% chance of 5SM FU at KVNY. KLAX...High confidence in CAVU TAF. Good confidence that any east wind component will be AOB 5kt. KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF. No wind issues expected. && .MARINE...20/906 AM. Moderate confidence in marginal Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds across much of the waters this afternoon through tonight, with wind gusts 15-25 kt common. Then Thursday through the weekend, northwest winds and wave heights are expected to remain below SCA levels, except for localized gusts to 20-25 kt in the afternoon and evening hours near Point Conception and the western Channel Islands, as well as the San Pedro Channel on Sunday. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Rorke AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...Lewis SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  244 FXUS64 KOHX 201613 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1113 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1109 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Medium to high rain chances continue each day through the forecast period. - Rainfall totals of 2+ inches through the weekend, with some localized high amounts possible. Some minor flooding concerns. - Temperatures near seasonal norms through the next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1109 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Showers with the occasional flash of lightning have been concentrated along but mainly west of I-65 this morning. The cold front will slowly progress east and southward through the afternoon with additional development coinciding with the diurnal cycle. Model soundings show some moderate lapse rates aloft this afternoon which may promote some strong downdrafts. With that said, there is a low chance of damaging winds with activity mainly along and east of I-65 this afternoon. The PWAT value from the 12z OHX sounding was 1.61" which is above the 90th percentile for the day. Current mesoanalysis shows values above 1.7" in the northwest. Expect some heavy rainfall with the activity through the day. As dry as we've been, river and large creek flooding won't be an issue but with the heavy rain rates, there could be a couple instances of ponding in the typical low spots. The 90th percentile on the HREF keeps rain amounts around 3" or less through 00z Friday so the flash flood threat is low. CAMS have activity continuing overnight, but not as intense. The front will sag south to around the TN/MS/AL border overnight before more activity develops on Thursday along and south of the front. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1109 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 The front will begin to lift north Thursday night as a shortwave kicks through the southwesterly upper level flow lifting more showers and storms through the area. The rain and storm chances will continue through the holiday weekend as the moisture-rich southwesterly upper flow sends additional impulses through the area. Rainfall amount will vary depending on who gets the heaviest storms. River and large creek flooding will continue to not be a big concern, but ponding and minor flash flooding associated with heavy rain rates will be possible. While the daytime temperatures won't be as hot as the last 3 or 4 days, the humidity level will be noticeable with values in the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 559 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Coverage of showers and storms will increase from west to east as a frontal zone settles over the area. Before the rain and storms, VFR will prevail. Variable cig/vsby conditions will accompany storms with localized heavy downpours and gusty winds.Low confidence on specific timing of showers and storms. Later in the period, after 21Z, conditions will trend downward to IFR cigs. Winds will be generally light through the period. Directions will be variable but mainly southwest through 21Z, then mainly north northwest. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 82 63 79 63 / 90 80 50 70 Clarksville 77 60 77 62 / 90 50 30 50 Crossville 82 60 76 60 / 80 60 80 60 Columbia 82 62 81 63 / 90 70 60 60 Cookeville 82 62 77 62 / 90 70 70 60 Jamestown 83 60 76 60 / 90 70 80 50 Lawrenceburg 81 63 79 64 / 90 70 60 70 Murfreesboro 84 63 80 63 / 90 80 60 70 Waverly 78 61 79 63 / 100 60 40 60 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....13  461 FXUS63 KPAH 201619 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1119 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage this morning, bringing another 1 to 2 inches of rainfall. A low risk for localized flooding issues shifts more southeast into mainly western Kentucky with torrential downpours, but is not expected to be widespread enough to support a flood watch expansion. - A brief lull in the rain occurs Wednesday night into Thursday, followed by daily chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday through Tuesday. There is a 50-70% chance southeast portions of the Quad State exceed 3 inches of additional rainfall by next Tuesday. - Temperatures trend 5 to 10 degrees below normal today through Thursday in the low to mid 70s, followed by a warming trend this weekend with temperatures returning to the 80s. Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast with highs warming into the mid 80s by the middle of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1110 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1236 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A cold front is now beginning to push southeast across the Quad State this morning. The increase in surface convergence combined with forcing associated with a mid-level vort max will continue to cause an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity. Most of the 0z CAMs focus the potential for an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall more south across western Kentucky that is currently not under a Flood Watch. Given that any flash flooding issues are likely to remain fairly localized at most with rainfall rates between 0.5 to 1.0 inch per hour, have decided to not expand the watch. 1 hour FFG is also quite high in the 1.75-3.00 inch range with storms that will be fairly progressive. Given WSR-88D trends, the HRRR/ARW seem reasonable as convection will continue to lift northeast through this morning. As the cold front pushes southeast of the Kentucky Pennyrile this afternoon, showers and storms will begin to taper off for most of the FA by this evening. High temperatures will also be unseasonably cool ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s from northwest to southeast. Highs in the 70s are then progged through the end of the week. Meanwhile, a 1030 mb sfc high pressure will advect in much drier air for Thursday with a 30-40% chance of a returning thundershower confined to mainly the southern most counties. The break in the active weather pattern will be short lived as a warm front lifts north Friday morning into Friday afternoon with a 80-90% chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms. The potential for severe weather does not look concerning as instability will be limited with poor lapse rates. Split flow aloft will keep the weather pattern unsettled for the holiday weekend into early next week with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Southerly return flow will continue to advect in moisture each day with the LREF supporting a 50-70% chance of exceeding 3 inches of additional rainfall through next Tuesday across the southeast half of the FA. Temperatures do trend warmer back into the 80s as a closed low enters the western CONUS on Tuesday and helps to amplify a ridge over the southeast CONUS. Highs eventually return to the mid 80s by the middle of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1110 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Widespread showers will gradually wind down from west to east through the afternoon, with any lingering activity after 00z southeast of the terminals. Limited thunder potential this afternoon and that should likely remain south and east of even KPAH/KOWB. IFR and low MVFR cigs will be hard pressed to move out, but some improvement this evening is anticipated at least at western terminals. Likely remain MVFR for southeast half to two thirds of the region though. Conditions likely decline again by early Friday morning with a return of IFR cigs. After the -SHRA exits we may still have some MVFR vsby restrictions to deal with across west KY overnight, but fairly low confidence on that impacting the terminals. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...SP DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...SP  445 FXUS66 KSEW 201618 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 918 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 .UPDATE...Forecast on track this morning. Marine layer already eroding along the edges with breaks in the overcast. Pilot reports indicate layer is less than 1000 feet thick. This combined with weakening low level onshore flow will result in a sunny afternoon. Warmer Thursday and Friday. Onshore flow increasing over the weekend especially Sunday for more clouds and cooler temperatures. First look at 12z models show the possibility of the system for Memorial Day slowing down a touch which could hold the rain off until evening for the interior. No update this morning. Previous discussion follows. Felton && .SYNOPSIS... High pressure aloft will begin to rebuild across Western Washington today and remain in place into Friday for a return sunnier and warmer temperatures. The ridge will weaken over the holiday weekend for a cooling trend. Next system arriving Memorial Day. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Broad upper-level troughing resides over western CONUS while a ridge continues to remain just offshore the PNW. Mid-high level cloud coverage is streaming overhead under northwest flow as the ridge axis stretches well into northern BC. Low stratus has developed again this morning across the coast, southwest interior and Puget Sound. It'll become more widespread as the morning progress before giving way to high clouds and filtered sunshine during the afternoon. High temperatures are forecast to be around average - in the 60s across the interior with lower 70s throughout the Chehalis River valley. Overnight lows will fall into the 40s. Upper-ridging is likely to amplify on Thursday before flattening on Friday. Temperatures will warm readily into the 70s to near 80 F across the interior for both Thursday and Friday. Coastal areas will see afternoon highs in the 60s with lows in the 40s area- wide. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Zonal flow aloft by Friday night along with more onshore flow towards the weekend. This should not only bring cooler temperatures, but also increase the chance for widespread PoPs into early next week. Sunday should feature additional cooling and cloud cover with precip chances increasing areawide Sunday night into Memorial Day. 41 && .AVIATION... High pressure is anchored offshore with N/NW flow over western WA today. The low level flow remains onshore. Stratus across much of the interior this morning is beginning to erode along the edges and over the Olympic Peninsula The trend is for improving conditions and VFR by 18-21z in the interior and 21-00z along the coast. Low clouds will reform along the coast overnight. N/NW winds 5-10 kt will prevail through the period, becoming light N/NE overnight. KSEA...MVFR conditions this morning with improving conditions 19- 21z. Light/variable wind becoming N/NW to 10 kt this afternoon, backing to light NE overnight. VFR conditions tonight. 33/62 && .MARINE... Onshore flow will prevail this week with high pressure offshore and lower pressure inland. Expect diurnal westerly pushes through the Strait of Juan de Fuca with highest wind and waves during the late afternoon and evening hours. A system Friday will bring elevated winds and seas over the Coastal Waters. 33 && .HYDROLOGY... The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated during this time as needed. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDTthis morning for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm. && $$  535 FXUS64 KHUN 201621 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1121 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1120 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Medium to high chances (60-90%) of showers and thunderstorms are forecast today through early next week. No severe weather is forecast. - Locally heavy downpours and frequent lightning may accompany all thunderstorms and those with outdoors plans or events should monitor the forecast. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1120 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A weakening cold front will push east into northwestern Alabama later this afternoon. Forcing along and ahead of this feature will likely be strong enough to produce an area of scattered to more numerous (mainly in southern middle Tennessee) showers and thunderstorms. Shear is not very impressive and forecast lapse rates are mainly between 5.0 and 6.0 in most guidance. Though SBCAPE could be between 2000 and 3000 J/KG, severe storms are not expected. Some stronger storms will be able to produce frequent lightning, gusty winds to around 45 mph, and heavy rainfall. It looks like strongest and most persistent forcing will remain mostly in Tennessee NE into the southern Ohio Valley and southwest of the area. One quarter to around half an inch in southern middle Tennessee looks reasonable for rainfall amounts through tonight. The majority of guidance pushes the front south of the Tennessee River late tonight into the daybreak on Thursday. We should lose instability overnight behind the front. Some post-frontal forcing will likely produce some lingering light to moderate rain over the area. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 1120 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 During the day on Thursday, guidance pushes the front back to the northwest. Shear remains weak near and along this frontal boundary. Instability is forecast to again climb into the 1000 to 2000 J/KG range, maybe slightly higher. Again lapse rates and DCAPE values look fairly meager. Overall forcing should be better, but severe thunderstorms do not look possible. General to strong thunderstorm activity is likely though producing frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and gusty winds to around 45 mph. The frontal boundary continues to more quickly move northward Thursday night into the day on Friday. At the same time, models form a pre-frontal trough axis that extends WSW from the Mid- Atlantic through northern Georgia into central Mississippi. 30 knots of 0-3 km shear is forecast by several models by the late afternoon into the early evening hours along this feature. SBCAPE values climb in the afternoon into the 1000 to 2500 J/KG range in several models. Luckily, lapse rates look fairly poor (5.0 to 6.0 degrees/km). DCAPE values remain less than 500 J/kg as well. All in all, there may be just enough shear for a low end organized severe thunderstorm threat producing damaging winds. Some enhanced forcing associated with an upper level disturbance moving along the pre-frontal trough axis could provide the spark for a more organized cluster of storms along with the minimal shear. Given forcing and high PWAT values between 1.5 and 1.7 inches, this could produce between 0.5 and 1.0 inches of additional rainfall over the area. Some locally heavier amounts can't be ruled out given forcing and some possible brief training of storms. This pre-frontal trough axis doesn't move much Friday night into Saturday. However, we may have a slight break from heavier rainfall. The base of the shortwave trough axis looks too far south for much convection to develop despite a good amount of instability developing in the afternoon. It looks like we will be under the influence of more subsidence. However, widespread cloud cover and maybe some showers will likely keep highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1120 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 The position of the pre-frontal trough axis changes little through early next week. Occasional disturbances continue to move east across it at times throughout that period. Instability builds each day in the afternoon to between 1000 and 3000 J/KG. Not seeing shear increase, but flooding will likely become an issue if it already isn't by the weekend. At this time, it looks like there is enough of a break given the primarily diurnal nature of the convection to keep a more serious flash flooding/flooding threat from materializing. However, some low end flash flooding or minor river flooding is not out of the question through that period. Overall, daytime highs will remain below normal (upper 70s/lower 80s) due to cloud cover and afternoon convection. Overnight lows will remain fairly warm and humid only dropping into the lower to mid 60s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 549 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals early this morning, before clouds increase and ceilings drop late this morning into the afternoon. A front will move into the region, bringing medium to high chances of showers and storms. Have added a TEMPO during the main window of TSRA activity (20-00z). AWWs and amendments may be needed during this timeframe. After sunset, MVFR conditions will develop as low stratus settles in after convection wanes. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KTW SHORT TERM....KTW LONG TERM....KTW AVIATION...AMP  691 FXUS63 KDDC 201626 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1126 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Exceptionally pleasant latter half of the week - Rain chances (60-90%) for SW Kansas tomorrow night into Thursday morning - Warming back up into the 80s next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 The synoptic pattern aloft is fairly unnoteworthy aside from a positively tilted low-pressure tough stretching down into southern Nevada. Close to the surface, weak low pressure has built up over the Great Plains portion of the CONUS. This evening will continue to see winds ease and temperatures drop via radiative cooling. Cloud cover building tomorrow afternoon will keep highs from getting too warm with the majority of SW Kansas staying in the 60s for a maximum temperatures. The significant focus of the forecast cycle comes tomorrow night will widespread precipitation expected. Models and ensembles continue to prog subtle moisture advection up into western Kansas. Very marginal chances begin via ensembles after noon. The chances uptick significantly after sunset with scattered showers descending southeastwardly. Forecast soundings have precipitable water values between 0.5-1". Despite CAMs holding a more scattered precipitation regime, ensembles keep amounts from 0.1- 0.25" with a maxima near 0.5 inch around Garden City. Instability is expected to be minimal to start with only benign showers forecast initially. Ensembles are very optimistic with rainfall chances through the event at or above 90% for the entire CWA, although it appears possible that some areas may only see amounts near a trace. While most of the first round of precipitation is expected to occur before noon Thursday, recent CAM runs have a convective signal near the Colorado border and weakening as it moves eastward into the evening potentially lasting into Friday. Again with the cloudiness and rain, highs again are forecast in the 60s across SW Kansas Thursday. Highs begin warming up on Friday with highs in the 70s, and into the 80s by Sunday. The start of next week will continue the warmer trend in the 80s. The forecast period has occasional possibilities for more precipitation, but the chances and agreement is low enough to where it is too uncertain to make declarations. However, in the wetter calmer pattern, minimum relative humidities maintain above 20% to quell most fire weather risk. Other than non-severe precipitation, little in the extended period is noteworthy. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1125 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through late evening. Widespread low level stratus is forecast to develop overnight as relative humidity increases within an easterly upslope flow, increasing the potential MVFR/IFR cigs developing in vicinity of all TAF sites generally after 04-06Z. Light east-southeast winds will persist through early early Thursday as a broad surface high drifts east through the Great Lakes Region. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KBJ AVIATION...JJohnson  702 FXUS65 KRIW 201626 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1026 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly virga showers, and a few rumbles of thunder, are forecast across the western Mountains and the Bighorn, Wind River, and Upper Green River Basins from 1PM to 8PM today. Gusty downdrafts up to 50 mph will be possible even in the absence of rain. - Rain chances (80% to 90%) quickly increase across northwest Wyoming after sunset tonight. Rain showers and thunderstorms become widespread across the state Thursday. - Light snow is expected across the western and northern mountains and Yellowstone National Park Thursday morning and potentially around Lander and Casper Mountain by Thursday night. - High confidence in warm temperatures Saturday through Memorial Day, with highs in the 70s and 80s. Low shower potential Sunday and Monday afternoons. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 110 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 The warming trend continues today, but temperatures will still be below normal for central and southern portions of the CWA. Eastern portions of the Bighorn Basin will have near normal highs near 70F. Virga showers will be more widespread across the CWA this afternoon, as winds aloft back to the west-southwest through the day. Most of the showers will develop over the western mountains and move over the Bighorn, Wind River and Upper Green River Basins through the afternoon. Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible with these showers, as dewpoint depressions will range between 30 and 50 degrees. Winds outside of any potential outflow will be light, 20 mph or less. Precipitation chances will become more focused over northwestern portions tonight as the storm drops southward, gradually pushing east and south into the Bighorn Basin, the western valleys and the Upper Green River Basin through the overnight hours. Snow levels will be as high as 9500 ft early in the evening and drop to around 7000 ft by 12Z Thursday. The associated cold front with this incoming storm system will drop southward over the CWA through the overnight hours as well, extending along a Casper-to-Riverton-to Kemmerer line by 12Z Thursday. The front will then slowly push through Natrona and Sweetwater counties through the rest of the morning, with a leeside low developing over northeast portions of WY by 18Z. The aforementioned area of precipitation will continue to move over the CWA through the rest of the day. Model trends have warmed the associated 700mb cold pool that pushes through the Bighorn and Wind River Basins during the afternoon and are now forecasted to be around minus 4C/minus 5C (snow levels as low as 6000 ft). Areas along and north of a Meeteetse-to-Lovell line could still see rain changing over to snow after 18Z. However, precipitation looks to end during the afternoon along a Jackson-to-Cody-to-Lovell line as drier air begins to advect in from the northwest behind the storm. Similar conditions could occur at Lander by 00Z with a greater chance for accumulating snow. There will be an added upslope component, aided by a potential 700mb low moving along the Divide between 00Z and 06Z. This could be enough to dynamically cool the column and lead to snow for the Lander Foothills. Current forecast is for conditions to quickly dry out from west to east through the overnight hours Thursday night, but if the storm slows down precipitation could continue over central and southern portions through 12Z Friday. Initial snowfall amounts of 6 to 8 inches are forecasted over the Absaroka, Wind River and the northern half of the Bighorn Mountains, with up to 4 inches over the Tetons, Gros Ventres and portions of Yellowstone. Temperatures rebound quickly on Friday, with a chance for showers over the far western mountains again in the afternoon as a weak shortwave moves over the area. Afternoon showers and possible thunderstorms will be possible over the holiday weekend as highs reach the middle to upper 80s by Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1026 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Conditions remain VFR this afternoon and evening. Scattered virga showers and an isolated thunderstorm will develop this afternoon across the northern half of the area. Most terminals will have little to no impacts, but did include a PROB30 of -SHRA and VRB gusty wind at KCOD this afternoon as well as a brief PROB30 at KJAC this evening. Cloud cover will steadily increase and lower tonight as a weather system approaches from the north. Widespread rain and some snow will develop tonight into Thursday morning. Conditions will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR at KJAC and KCOD first and spread southeast Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will develop Thursday afternoon, mainly west of the Continental Divide, but also at KCPR. A cold front will slide down from the north tonight into Thursday. Wind will become northerly behind this front, with the front reaching KRKS late Thursday afternoon. Wind will range from 10-20 knots, with gusts of 20-30 knots through Thursday afternoon behind this front. Mountain obscuration will increase tonight, becoming prevalent Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LaVoie AVIATION...Rowe  241 FXUS66 KMTR 201640 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 940 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1036 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 - Diurnally driven winds, with onshore winds during the afternoon and early evening. - Above normal temperatures continue through midweek with seasonal temperatures returning late week. - Warm and dry weather through Thursday leads to elevated fire weather concerns for the interior Bay Area and Central Coast. && .UPDATE... Issued at 940 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 Temperatures in the lower elevations are up to 10 degrees cooler compared to this time yesterday. This is thanks to a deeper marine layer in place and lack of stronger offshore winds. Thus, maximum temperatures may be cooler than yesterday as a result. However, very dry conditions will persist in the higher terrain generally above 1,000 feet. RGass && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1036 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 (Tonight through Thursday) Little change in the forecast as high pressure slowly creeps into Northern California today. Satellite imagery this evening shows high clouds sliding down the West Coast, with much of the Bay Area likely seeing some cirrus. With the current data, temperatures look to be on track; however, if we're not able to get radiational cooling, our temperatures for tonight might be low/cool. This would be because the clouds act as blanket, allowing less heat to escape at night. It'll be something to keep an eye on over the next few hours. In terms of Wednesday, if you guessed, "No pattern change. Ha, this means another day of warmer weather", you'd be correct! A potential fly in the ointment is if the marine layer attempts to manifest around 500 feet. This might keep temperatures a few degrees cooler along the immediate coast, but elsewhere temperatures should be similar to Tuesday, perhaps a few degrees higher. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1036 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday) No major changes to the extended forecast. Upper level troughing looks to keep hold over the western US, while the Pacific high pushes even more into northern California on Thursday. With the high being a bit more pronounced, another warm day will be on tap. After that, guidance has flow becoming quasi-zonal for a brief period before troughing returns on Friday. The marine layer looks to be around 500ft on Thursday, deepening to around 1000ft by Friday and then lasting through the weekend. With onshore flow, a deeper marine layer, and troughing through the weekend the NBM's temperatures are bit too warm. Opted to start trending towards slightly cooler temperatures given the ensembles and cluster analysis. But there is a chance ridging wins out and temperatures might warmer. Definitely something to keep an eye on over the next few days. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 503 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR at the big three this morning and expect that to continue despite some stratus forming offshore. Guidance was a little too aggressive in bringing in stratus elsewhere and thus have cut back on stratus this morning. HAF and SNS are experiencing some hz/br drop the flight CAT. VFR this afternoon gusty onshore flow. Gusts 15-20kt seems reasonable. For tonight, marine layer currently off the coast will move locally inland with highest conf for HAF and MRY/SNS. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. NW winds ramp up this afternoon with gusts to 20kt. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MRY is VFR, but enough low level moisture is at SNS to have occasional br/hz. Much higher conf for stratus intrusion tonight into Wednesday. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 940 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 A weak frontal boundary to the north will maintain fresh to strong northerly breezes and rough seas over the outer waters north of Pigeon Point through early Thursday. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh northerly breezes and moderate seas will prevail. Conditions improve into the weekend as seas and northwesterly breezes become moderate. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...MM MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  574 FXUS62 KRAH 201649 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1248 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Highs Thu continue to trend warmer, due to a slightly slower backdoor front. * Latest NBM still looks too warm for Fri highs in the NW/Triad, so have held highs on the low side of guidance. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 155 AM Wednesday... 1) Continued very hot today, and Thu now looks almost as warm for much of the area. 2) We'll enter a wet pattern starting Thu afternoon, with above normal rain chances expected into the middle of next week. A wedge setup will lead to cooler temps Fri, particularly in the Piedmont. && .DISCUSSION... As of 155 AM Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Continued very hot today, and Thu now looks almost as warm for much of the area. We'll see at least one more day of hot temperatures today, as persistence rules, given little to no change in the overall pattern. Confidence remains quite high that we'll see continued anomalously hot weather, as strong ridging near the surface through the mid levels persists, including 500 mb heights and 850 mb temps in the 95th-99th percentile according to the HREF. Low level thicknesses hold around 20 m above normal today, favoring highs once again in the low-mid 90s, with isolated upper 90s. We'll still see a lowering of dewpoints with deep mixing, such that apparent temps will hold under 100F, however the Heat Risk will again be at level 2 of 4 (Moderate), with isolated patches of level 3 of 4 (High), indicating highly anomalous heat that could lead to heat illnesses, especially for more sensitive or vulnerable populations. And the intense sunshine and a generally light breeze will again elevate the WBGT index. As such, in addition to frequent water breaks, spending time resting in the shade is encouraged, especially for those working or exercising outdoors. We still expect a backdoor front to approach our northern border Thu, however the models continue a gradual slowing trend, with the front making slow progress through our northern tier of counties during the mid to late afternoon. This will allow much of the area S of the front (including areas along and S of Hwy 64) to heat up, given the still-high low level thicknesses near 15 m above normal, although the development of convective clouds in the afternoon (along with late-day showers and a few storms) should keep temps under today's highs. Expect highs from the low-mid 80s near the VA border ranging to the low 90s in our far S. KEY MESSAGE 2... We'll enter a wet pattern starting Thu afternoon, with above normal rain chances expected into the middle of next week. A wedge setup will lead to cooler temps Fri, particularly in the Piedmont. First, regarding temps Fri, the front will settle along the southern and eastern edges of the CWA Thu night, with cool high pressure nosing in from the north as its center shifts from the N Great Lakes across New England and just off the Northeast coast. This source high is fairly strong, ~1035 mb over SE Quebec by late Fri night, with current surface dewpoints in the 40s at its core. And it will be briefly anchored by confluent flow followed by a building narrow ridge aloft, which will favor a CAD event with wedging down through the Piedmont Fri. Have leaned closer to the NBM10Pct and mean statistical guidance for Fri highs across the N and W Piedmont, yielding highs in the upper 60s to around 70 from INT/GSO to TDF/HNZ, mid-upper 70s from Albemarle through the Triangle region to Rocky Mount, and low-mid 80s across the SE CWA. Temps might need to be tweaked downward in our far NW on Sat and even Sun as well, if models continue to indicate a stubborn cool/stable pool lingering over the Piedmont. Regarding rain chances, while the details remain murky, we're confident that we're entering a wet spell with fairly high rain chances overall for several days, although not every spot will see rain each day. Showers and scattered storms are expected to develop along the front across the N starting Thu afternoon, then this precip should settle south with the front through Thu night. The breakdown of our current mid level ridge will allow for an increasingly weakly-perturbed mid level SW flow from N Mexico across TX and the Mid South across NC, providing shots of mid level DPVA acting on PW values of 125-200% of normal, along with persistent deep low level moist isentropic upglide at 295-305K sourced from both the Gulf and Atlantic. At the surface, the front will eventually lift north (perhaps delayed by a lingering stable pool in the Triad), placing us in a warm sector in flow from the S and SW for multiple days. Locally briefly heavy rain totals are possible especially late Thu into Thu night, as strengthening SW 850 mb flow and increasing ascent along the front could lead to isolated heavier rain and propagating cells on the SW side of convection. The overall CAPE and deep layer bulk shear will be on the low end through this weekend, thus no severe weather is expected. With this persistent long and wavy SW flow from N Mexico into the Carolinas combined with high low-level moisture flux from the Gulf and Atlantic through the weekend and into early next week, our rain chances are expected to remain above normal, peaking each afternoon and evening Fri through at least Tue. While this would put a damper on the long holiday weekend, it would be a welcome respite from our ongoing drought conditions. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1248 PM Wednesday... VFR conditions persist this afternoon under generally sunny skies. A few light gusts of up to 15 kts or so have been observed across northern locations. Some stirring is possible overnight, but winds should be generally light. Some guidance hints at marginal LLWS, but think the threat should be quite limited, if at all. There's a bit of a mixed bag as far as possible overnight fog and or stratus early Thursday morning. Went ahead and added a few TEMPO groups at KRDU/KFAY/KRWI to account for possible lower ceilings and mist/reduced visbys. Confidence isn't high though. Convection is expected to blossom across central NC Thursday afternoon via a short-wave aloft and an advancing backdoor cold front. However, high-res guidance generally holds off on precipitation at all terminals till near or just after 18Z. Will hold off on introducing any restrictions till the next TAF package. Outlook: Showers and storms will persist Thursday afternoon and evening along with gusty nely sfc winds. Sub-VFR ceilings also look to persist into Friday in the Triad and potentially RDU as a CAD regime looks to set up over the region. Daily shower/storm chances will also be possible through early next week. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 20: KGSO: 95/1917 KRDU: 96/2022 KFAY: 99/2022 May 21: KRDU: 96/1941 KFAY: 99/1941 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 20: KGSO: 68/2022 KRDU: 69/2019 KFAY: 71/2022 May 21: KGSO: 67/2022 KRDU: 71/1898 KFAY: 71/2025 May 22: KFAY: 73/2004 May 23: KFAY: 72/2011 May 24: KRDU: 70/2011 KFAY: 72/2000 May 25: KGSO: 70/2019 KRDU: 71/2019 KFAY: 71/2019 May 26: KGSO: 70/2019 KRDU: 73/2011 KFAY: 75/2004 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hartfield AVIATION...Luchetti/Helock CLIMATE...RAH  648 FXUS63 KAPX 201651 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1251 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Seasonably cool temperatures and quiet weather return today through the rest of the work week. -Frost/freeze concerns continue tonight and Thursday night. -Temperatures slowly build through the rest of the week into early next week with periodic chances of precipitation. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Pattern Synopsis: A 500mb troughing pattern begins to break down and progress northeast this morning as a somewhat zonal flow positions itself over Northern Michigan. Post-frontal northwest flow at the surface will draw a cool cP air influence into the Great Lakes Region, resulting in seasonably cool temperatures and overall quiet weather through the remainder of the work week. Conditions turn more active this weekend as low-amplitude shortwave troughing develops over the Canadian Rockies until it reaches the central U.S. and then lifts through the Great Lakes Region. Disheveled surface low pressure will provide enough energy to return some scattered showers around the Saturday/Sunday timeframe. The remainder of the forecast period will remain relatively quiet as upstream ridging returns subsidence aloft and surface high pressure settles over the central U.S. with temperatures building above normal for late May. Forecast Details: Today through Friday...Post frontal northwest flow will build cold and quiet weather across the Northwoods. Surface highs will be below normal for this time period as the coldest day (today) will only reach highs in the mid 50s to low 60s for most areas. The only concern at this time period is the chilly overnight temperatures falling into the mid to low 30s. Temperatures will be near freezing as cloud cover clears late, which impacts the true efficiency of overnight radiational cooling processes. Areas along the interior northern lower and eastern upper will likely observe a short period of temperatures at or below freezing while areas closer to lakes remain slightly warmer. Saturday and Sunday...The previously mentioned shortwave will return light shower chances this weekend as guidance depicts low pressure tracking through the Mississippi Valley across Michigan. With weakening upper level dynamics combined with the strongest forcing to our south, highest probabilities remain below a quarter inch for the entire event. Nevertheless, light stratiform rain this Saturday and lingering moisture behind the system provide less than ideal weather for the holiday weekend. Monday and Tuesday Outlook...Upstream ridging pattern originating from the southwest and progressing across the county will support a gradual rise in temperatures across the Great Lakes region. Southerly air influence combined with diurnal heating processes will return high temperatures to the 70s and 80s across the CWA. Subsidence aloft will return high pressure, keeping precipitation chances minimal next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1251 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR likely to prevail through the TAF period. Occasional drops to MVFR cigs possible this afternoon for most sites, esp south of M-32. Winds largely NW/N this afternoon 10-15kts (though non-zero chance of lake breeze at MBL) gusting as high as 20-25kts, diminishing to 5- 10kts or less after dark, with land breezes possible overnight...as high pressure moves across the eastern UP/Tip of the Mitten region. Do wonder about fog development tonight, and have alluded to this at MBL/APN for now. Winds Thursday morning likely more NE to E with MVFR cigs possible. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ345>348. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ321- 322. && $$ DISCUSSION...DJC AVIATION...FEF  799 FXUS66 KSGX 201656 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 956 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Warming will continue for the mountains and deserts through Thursday while the coast and valleys begin to cool. For Friday through Sunday, not much change in high temperatures is expected for the mountains and deserts while the coast and valley cool a few more degrees. Cooling will begin to spread inland early next week as onshore flow strengthens. Patchier night and morning low clouds near the coast will increase in coverage and inland spread for Friday into early next week with low clouds spreading into portions of the inland valleys late each night with later or more limited clearing near the coast each afternoon. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)... The humidity for inland areas will once again fall to around 10 percent for the deserts for this afternoon and 10 to 15 percent for the mountains and inland valleys. High temperatures will continue to warm for inland areas today, as much as another 4 to 8 degrees for the mountains and deserts, while coastal areas cool a few degrees. High temperatures today will range from around 70 near the coast to the mid 80s to lower 90s for the Inland Empire with the lower deserts in the mid to upper 90s. For Thursday, high temperatures will warm another few degrees for the deserts while the coast and valleys cool a few to around 5 degrees. Friday high temperatures will cool a few degrees for most areas. High temperatures on Friday will range from the mid to upper 60s near the coast to the upper 70s to mid 80s for the Inland Empire with the upper 90s for the lower deserts. The most likely location for coastal low clouds this morning is over coastal areas of southern San Diego County into the adjacent western valleys. Greater coverage of low clouds is expected for tonight into Thursday morning for coastal areas with the low clouds spreading into the western valleys for Thursday night into Friday morning. && .LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)... High temperatures will change little through Sunday, generally a few degrees above average for the coast and valleys and a few to around 5 degrees above average for the mountains and deserts. High temperatures for Saturday and Sunday will range from around 70 near the coast to the upper 70s to upper 80s for the Inland Empire with the lower deserts around 100. For Monday and Tuesday, a low pressure system moving into the Pacific Northwest will strengthen the onshore flow across southern California. This will spread cooling inland with high temperatures on Tuesday a few degrees below average near sea level to 5 to 10 degrees below average for the valleys and lower coastal slopes of the mountains. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the mid to upper 60s near the coast to the 70s for the Inland Empire with the 90s for the lower deserts. Night and morning low clouds will spread inland into portions of the inland valleys late each night with slower and more limited afternoon clearing near the coast. With the stronger onshore flow early next week, southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts will gust to 30 to 40 mph on Tuesday afternoon and evening with gusts to around 60 mph in the northern Coachella Valley below the San Gorgonio Pass. && .AVIATION... 201630Z...SKC expected across the region through this evening. Low clouds based 900-1500 ft MSL return to coastal areas overnight, starting in San Diego County around 06z and spreading northward. More uniform coverage than this morning with about 10-15 miles of inland extent. Minor vis reductions (1-5SM) along elevatedcoastal terrain. Low clouds scatter to the coast by 16-17z Thu. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday morning. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...17 AVIATION/MARINE...KW