374 FXUS62 KKEY 201412 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL 1012 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and humid conditions over the next few days will lead to a moderate risk of heat illness with periods of major risk conditions possible. - Quick moving showers and storms may bring bursts of heavy rainfall, reduced visibility, and gusty winds. - Gentle to moderate easterly breezes will continue for the next several days peaking in the evenings and overnight and decreasing in intensity during the afternoon hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1005 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 The latest 12z KEY upper air sounding depicts ample saturation throughout much of the low level boundary layer overlain with stout northwesterly cyclonic flow as the region remains on the far western periphery of an upper level low in the vicinity of the northwestern Bahamas this morning. Precipitable water values currently in the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range across the region are close to the 75th percentile for the date as a plume of higher atmospheric moisture content gradually slides westward via easterly surface flow. This has supported the continued development of vertically capped shower activity across the island chain this morning, briskly moving along in 10-15 knots of near surface, 850mb flow. Mesoscale models (HRRR, RRFS, etc) depict a maxima in convection across the region for the remainder of this morning before propagating outflow boundaries from existing convection and slightly drier air advecting into the region may bring a lull in activity during the afternoon hours. With the easterly flow overnight and warm sea surface temperatures, shower activity may once again pick up in coverage across the island chain and waters overnight into Thursday morning. High temperatures this afternoon will reside in the mid to upper 80s (with peak heat indices in the low to mid 90s) across the majority of the region with overnight lows tonight forecast to drop into the lower 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 445 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 CIMSS products shows a mean layer ridge remains in place across the western North Atlantic with the center of this ridge near Bermuda. Embedded within the ridge is an upper level disturbance located over the Bahamas. At the surface, a high pressure system remains in place near Bermuda. Marine observation platforms surrounding the Island Chain are recording mainly east breezes near 15 knots as a result. Enhanced moisture remains in place across the Keys early this morning as GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) shows estimated PWAT values of 1.7 to 1.8 inches moving through the Keys. KBYX radar has been active for much of the overnight with widely scattered showers moving in a west northwest fashion through the Keys with occasional showers impacting the Island Chain. The showers have been struggling to develop vertically due to the northwest flow aloft attributed to the upper level disturbance to the east. This is tilting the clouds to the south and thus choking off the updrafts causing the activity to weaken as fast as they develop. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows mostly clear skies throughout the Keys. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower 80s and dew points are in the mid 70s. .FORECAST... Surface high pressure across the western North Atlantic will continue to dominate the Keys weather for the next several days. The high will maintain its strength over the next several days to week meandering in place as it does so. Gentle to moderate east breezes are expected to continue as a result peaking in the evening and overnight and lulling during the afternoons. Moisture is expected to remain elevated through at least tonight before slightly drier air rotates in from the southeast for the remainder of the week and into the holiday weekend. This will result in chances of rain today becoming slight chances for tonight on through the extended forecast. Instability will also remain elevated keeping thunder in the forecast throughout the period. Temperatures will remain quite consistent through the week with highs in the upper 80s to occasionally 90 degrees and overnight lows in the lower 80s to perhaps near 80 degrees with any showers. && .MARINE... Issued at 1005 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Expansive surface high pressure across the region will result in a continuation of much of the same over the local waters, as gentle to moderate easterly wind flow continues. Wind speeds will continue to gradually decline throughout the rest of the week, however daily fluctuations (higher wind speeds in the evenings and overnight, lower wind speeds during the day) will continue. Ample moisture will support the continuation of elevated rain chances for the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1005 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Bouts of MVFR ceilings remain possible at EYW/MTH due to quick moving shower activity directly impacting terminals. Surface winds will remain easterly throughout the TAF period with VFR conditions outside of any passing showers. Short fused TEMPOs may be needed based on shower activity trends and the potential of reduced visibilities, lower ceilings, and erratic gusty winds. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1932, the daily record rainfall of 3.83 inches was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871. On this day in 2024, the daily record rainfall of 7.08" was recorded in Marathon. This also ranks as the wettest day ever recorded in May. Rainfall records for Marathon date back to June 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 81 91 81 / 30 20 20 20 Marathon 86 80 87 80 / 30 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...SH Aviation/Nowcasts....SH Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest  423 FXUS64 KTSA 201413 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 913 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 913 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Abnormally cool weather is expected through Thursday, with a slow warming trend then developing into next week. - Rain and thunder chances will continue daily through the forecast period, with periods of heavy rain. && .UPDATE... Issued at 913 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Made a quick update to PoPs to trend PoPs downward toward midday across NW AR in association with the band of warm advection showers. CAMs suggest the remainder of the day will be fairly quiet. The model blend (NBM) forecast high temps were near the warmer edge of the guidance, which does not make as much sense with the cloud cover. Thus, the forecast will lean toward CONSMOS, which was near the center of the guidance envelope. Lacy && .SHORT TERM... (Through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1131 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Beneficial rain has fallen across eastern OK and northwest AR over the last 24 hours or so. Zones receiving the most rainfall have been: far northeast OK into far northwest AR and southeast OK, especially far southeast OK, where amounts have averaged between two to three inches. Most impressive amounts fell in parts of northeast Ottawa County, near the tri-state marker, where radar estimates around four inches or greater fell. A few elevated showers and sprinkles have developed along the I-44 corridor, near an elevated frontal boundary. Last few runs of the HRRR have been on the aggressive side of intensifying these showers/storms and expanding them into far eastern OK and northwest AR after midnight. Brief pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible if this scenario occurs as they progress eastward through the overnight period tonight. Additional rainfall amounts up to a quarter of an inch will be possible, especially across far northwest AR. Precipitation chances will begin to trend lower by or just after daybreak Wednesday and is forecast to remain mostly dry through the remainder of the day. A few isolated/spotty showers and storms are possible in the afternoon, mostly affecting parts of southeast OK and northwest AR, but no hazardous impacts are expected. Cloud cover will remain fairly thick through Wednesday morning, but some breaks and thinning of clouds may occur during the afternoon, especially portions of southeast OK. Cloud cover will keep temperatures generally below average through the daytime, with afternoon highs reaching the mid-upper 60s to lower 70s north of I-40 and mid-upper 70s to near 80 degrees south of I-40. If enough sunlight is able to break through the clouds, temps may warm up closer to average. Next best chance of widespread rain, with isolated thunderstorms, will arrive late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as another mid-level shortwave trough approaches the area from the southwest. Very limited instability and weak flow aloft will suppress any chance of severe storms, but moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible as PWATs increase between 1.5-1.75 inches across the area by sunrise Thursday morning. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1131 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Scattered to numerous showers, with embedded scattered thunderstorms, will likely be ongoing Thursday morning as a mid- level shortwave trough, downstream from its parent trough axis, pivots northeastward across the forecast area. Medium-range guidance is in good agreement an uptick in precipitation intensity will occur late in the morning through the afternoon. Despite an increase in moisture and instability by Thursday afternoon, wind shear is still expected to be weak and should keep any severe potential very low to none. Will continue to monitor trends in data. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be the main concern as it may lead to nuisance flooding and potentially flash flooding through the daytime Thursday and into Thursday night. Forecast uncertainty begins to increase by Friday, though models and ensembles continue to support the idea of multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain each day through the upcoming weekend. Signals in model data suggest the brunt of the heaviest rainfall will occur mainly late evening through the overnight period each night Friday night through Sunday night. Once again, severe potential is expected to be very limited to none as flow aloft remains too weak to support organized severe storms through the upcoming weekend. However, efficient elevated instability and abnormally high PWATs through the period will maintain the risk of heavy rainfall and potential flooding, including river flooding, each day/night. Mejia && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 547 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Shower and thunderstorms are ongoing along and just east of the Oklahoma/Arkansas border, with CAMs showing their dissipation by mid morning. Will keep a thunderstorm mention at the W AR sites for the first couple of hours of the TAF period. Most sites continue to have IFR ceilings, with the exception being FSM, and a slow improvement to MVFR is expected late morning into the afternoon. Existing visibility reductions in light fog should also improve by this time. Ceilings should decrease once again during the latter part of the TAF period, with additional showers or thunderstorms possible for the E OK sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 68 60 72 62 / 10 40 90 80 FSM 79 65 77 64 / 20 30 60 90 MLC 75 64 75 64 / 0 30 90 70 BVO 65 54 70 58 / 10 50 80 80 FYV 70 61 75 62 / 40 20 70 90 BYV 67 59 73 61 / 50 20 50 80 MKO 70 62 73 62 / 10 30 90 80 MIO 64 58 72 61 / 10 40 80 80 F10 68 61 73 61 / 10 40 90 80 HHW 79 65 74 63 / 10 40 90 80 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ UPDATE...30 SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...22  702 FXUS62 KCHS 201423 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1023 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Fog has diminished, removed mention from the discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Rain chances likely to increase late in the week, though no hazardous weather is anticipated at this time. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain chances likely to increase late in the week, though no hazardous weather is anticipated at this time. The area will remain along the western flanks of Atlantic high pressure centered well offshore. Early morning water vapor imagery shows a well defined Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) low positioned near 29N/75W at 20/06z. Broad subsidence aloft along the western flanks of the TUTT will continue to reside over the area through tonight with subtropical ridging progged to hold aloft across much of the Southeast States. The TUTT is forecast to slowly weaken and remain well offshore as the it propagates west/northwest along the backside of the Subtropical Anticyclone meandering near Bermuda. The net result will be a continuation of warm, rain-free conditions with some high clouds spreading in at times. Low-level thicknesses are progged to max out about 10-30 meters higher than Tuesday as subsidence aloft builds. Highs are poised to warm into the lower-mid 90s inland with upper 70s/near 80 at the beaches. Temperatures across the coastal counties will remain what somewhat tempered as another robust, pure sea breeze circulation propagates steadily inland through the afternoon. Similar to the past few nights, it will take until the early morning hours Thursday before the boundary fully decouples and influences from the afternoon sea breeze wane. Lows will range from the mid 60s inland to the lower 70s at the beaches. Low- level moisture profiles and 1000 hPa condensation pressure deficits do not look as favorable for fog development compared to this morning, but some shallow ground fog appears likely, especially away from the immediate coast. Upper level ridging lingers across the southeastern CONUS Thursday, as a sfc cold front stalls out along the Tennessee River Valley. As such, should see largely dry conditions prevail across our area, with highs forecast to rise into the lower 90s under mostly sunny skies. Will see the aforementioned cold front sag southward over the Carolinas by Friday, causing the upper level ridge to shift over the Atlantic. While the exact position of the front and how far south it progresses will be the key factor in determining rainfall coverage and amounts, current trends continue to favor a strong Atlantic ridge. This would keep the front displaced just to our west and north, and thus limit our chances for seeing meaningful rainfall. Ensemble guidance continues to follow this trend as well, with probabilities for seeing rainfall greater than an inch through Saturday remaining less than 25%. So, while trends currently favor a drier, less impactful event, still encourage folks to monitor the latest forecast as subtle shifts in track may still occur. Otherwise, expect the severe potential with any shower/storm to remain low, given the lack of forcing and moisture in place. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 20/12z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Fog will quickly mix out after daybreak with VFR conditions. Shallow ground of will be possible at all three terminals again early Thursday morning. Extended Aviation Outlook: There are no high confidence concerns. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: Quiet conditions will persist with the region positioned along the western flanks of Atlantic high pressure centered well offshore. East/southeast winds will prevail with speeds less than 15 kt, although some local enhancement along the land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor will likely occur with the sea breeze. Seas will average 2-4 ft. Thursday through Sunday: No marine concerns are expected. High pressure to the east will drive onshore east-southeasterly flow each day, with wind speeds mostly topping out in the 10-15 knot range. Each afternoon and evening there could be some local enhancement along the land/sea interface with the diurnal sea breeze. Seas will average 2-4 feet through the period. Rip Currents: A lingering 9 sec, 2-3 ft swell will keep a moderate rip current risk in place for all beaches through this evening. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$  692 FXUS62 KTAE 201423 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1023 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1011 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 - A HIGH RISK of rip currents at area beaches into the Memorial Day weekend. Beach- goers are urged to consult lifeguards on surf conditions and discouraged to enter the surf if red or double red flags are flying. - Hot afternoon temperatures are expected through this weekend. Inland high temperatures will most commonly reach the 90 to 95 degree range. Minor to Moderate heat-related impacts are expected, affecting those who are sensitive to heat, and some health systems and industries. - Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms continue through Friday. Coverage will then increase over this weekend into early next week. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with stronger storms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1011 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 No major changes to today's forecast were required. Late-morning satellite observations show a well-defined upper low spinning off NE FL/SE GA coast. An extensive ribbon of dry air (PW ~ less than 1.5") on the left periphery of this feature is apparent along the Atlantic coastal plain down to the eastern half of the Tri-State area. Higher PW air (>1.5" inches) is in place west of the ACF basin, so the highest rain chances reside there. Convective initiation is expected off the Gulf coast seabreeze. Prevailing SE winds is already aiding in early cloud development off the Forgotten-Emerald Coasts. The environment will be supportive of locally heavy rain & gusty winds. Storms look to drift north to NE and attempt for form additional cells from outflow boundary collisions in summer-like fashion. Speaking of summer, please pay attention to the beach flags with respect to rip currents, if visiting. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through next Tuesday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Upper ridging extends from the Bay of Campeche northeast through the tri state region into the Carolinas and off the mid Atlantic coast. To the west, longwave troughing extends through the Rockies southwest to off the Baja coast. In between the trough and ridge lies a cold front from the Great Lakes southwest to Texas. This front will edge slowly over the next few days to northern Alabama and Georgia while the upper ridge shifts east. With the shifting of the ridge east into the weekend, this will allow higher PWATs (1.6- 1.8 inches) to shift from west to east through the area while drier air to also shift southeast into the Florida peninsula. Rain chances today will primarily be associated with the Emerald Coast seabreeze where higher PWATs reside with development in the mid afternoon hours shifting north into the evening hours. Rain chances Thursday and Friday will be relatively low (20-30%) before losing some of the influence of the ridge as it heads east. Rain chances gradually increase this weekend into early next week with the better chances Monday and Tuesday (30-60%) favoring seabreeze development and subsequent boundary interactions. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns. In the meantime, upper high translates to off the southeast US coast Tuesday which will act as a suppressor once again towards mid week next week, especially in the eastern half of the area where PWATs fall to 1.2 inches east with 1.8 inches west. Temperatures will run a few degrees above normal for this time of year with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Heat indices will run in the mid to upper 90s with around 100F in some spots this weekend with the increase in moisture. Minor to Moderate heat-related impacts are expected, affecting those who are sensitive to heat, and some health systems and industries. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Patchy fog is present at ECP and VLD this morning. The fog is expected to dissipate soon after sunrise. SCT to BKN skies are expected throughout the day today with showers/thunderstorms possible around the ECP and DHN terminals this afternoon and evening. Light easterly to southeasterly winds are on tap for this afternoon with VFR cigs outside of any thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature into early next week. This will maintain light to occasionally moderate south to southeast winds and seas of 1-3 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon first in the Florida panhandle and move north into southeast Alabama later today and then this evening across the southeast Florida Big Bend. Moving forward into the weekend, chances for afternoon and evening showers and storms increase with a majority of the districts standing at a 30-60% chance. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns. Afternoon dispersions are fair to good each day and afternoon humidities are well above critical levels. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Heavy downpours beneath the core of afternoon and evening thunderstorms may lead to localized and short-lived nuisance flooding in urban or poor drainage areas, mainly from Saturday onward as thunderstorm coverage increases and the air mass moistens further. Larger scale flooding and river flooding are not expected for the next 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 91 71 92 71 / 20 0 20 0 Panama City 87 72 87 73 / 20 0 0 0 Dothan 90 69 90 68 / 50 20 10 10 Albany 91 69 92 70 / 10 0 20 10 Valdosta 92 70 93 70 / 0 10 10 10 Cross City 92 70 92 72 / 0 20 20 0 Apalachicola 85 73 86 75 / 10 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...IG3 SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM....Scholl AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...Haner  983 FXUS61 KLWX 201430 AAA AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1030 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Nothing. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening as a strong cold front crosses, ending the record heat. 2) Turning showery and sharply cooler Thursday into early next week with several days of much needed rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Record heat continues through today. A strong cold front brings widespread strong to severe thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening. Relief is on the way today as a strong cold front approaches the region. The front will break the record heat while bringing renewed strong to severe thunderstorm chances to the region. Dewpoints will also hover close to 70 degrees making for more of that true summertime feel in the DMV. The added heat and humidity combined with the strong cold front will be the catalyst for thunderstorm development this afternoon. The entire region has been upgraded to a Slight Risk (Level 2 out 5) for severe weather per SPC. This aligns with CSU Learning Machine probabilities along with NCARS AI NWP Convective Forecast and NSSL Probs for the afternoon and evening period. The coverage storms looks to be scattered to numerous although the severe threat will be isolated given west to southwest flow aloft. MLCAPE values will peak in the 1000-2000 j/kg range this afternoon with 0-6km shear values less than 30 kts. This would support multicellular clusters capable of producing damaging winds (downbursts) and large hail. Current 00z CAM guidance shows a variety of solutions when it comes to timing. General consensus is for convection to fire along a lee side trough east of the Alleghenies/toward I-81 early to mid afternoon between 1- 4 pm before sliding east into the metros between 3-9pm. The greatest coverage of storms (i.e best organization) appears to be north of I- 66/US-50 given the progression of the front as it drops in from the northwest. Locations further south may see more of a smattering of storms (in multiple rounds) pushing through. Still believe there will be enough coverage of severe thunderstorms for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to be issued at some point this afternoon for portions of the area. Not expecting flash flooding given current 6 hr QPF values around 1-2" and 3 hr FFG values just above those marks. Could see some increased runoff in typical urban /poor drainage areas and areawide with recent drought concerns. Convection should start to wane after 8 PM tonight, but showers could linger well into the overnight as the cold front crosses. Lows tonight will fall back into the mid 50s and low 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Turning showery and sharply cooler Thursday into early next week with several days of much needed rainfall. Synoptically, looking at a transient/wedge pattern Thursday into the upcoming holiday week. Weak troughing will reside over the Ohio River Valley with high pressure locked across New England/Great Lakes region. The combination of these two features along a stalled front to the south will lead to persistent onshore flow into the region. As a result, expect several days of on and off shower/thunderstorm activity through the remainder of week into the Memorial Day holiday. Sunshine will be limited with plenty of cloud cover expected and cooler than normal temperatures as a result of the east to northeast flow. Highs Thursday will take a 25 to 30 degree dive behind the front with many locations struggling to push 70 degrees. Temperatures will continue to run below normal on Friday, struggling to make it into the 60s. Ensemble guidance shows much larger spread in temperatures Saturday through Monday, with some solutions keeping us locked into low cloud cover and temperatures in the 50s/60s, while some other solutions try to break us out of the low clouds, causing temperatures to climb into the 70s. The most notable thing in the extended, outside of the sharp cooldown will be the much needed rainfall as a result of this active pattern. Periods of on and off showers with overrunning along the boundary will yield rain totals of 1 to 3 inches through early next week. Some localized amounts of 4"+ are possible back across the Alleghenies and up into central/northeast MD. With that said, this should ease some of the severe and extreme drought across the region. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to continue across the terminals through 18z/2pm ahead of a strong cold front. Sub-VFR restrictions return at times this afternoon and evening due to widespread showers and strong/severe thunderstorms. Expect convection to initiate in the vicinity of KMRB/KHGR/KSHD between 18-21/2-5pm advancing east toward the I-95 corridor terminals between 20-24z/4-8pm. Did opt for TEMPOs toward BWI/MTN/MRB with PROB30s further south toward IAD/CHO/DCA given hi-res model output suggesting a greater focus of convection north of I-66/US-50. Winds will remain out of the west/southwest ahead of the front before shifting back to the north and northwest Thursday at 5 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts at times. Some low CIGS may hang on through Thursday morning as the front slowly sags south of the region. Periodic rain showers moving through the region on Thursday afternoon and evening bring additional sub-VFR periods at terminals Wind gusts could reach 15 to 20 knots on Thursday before gradually decreasing. Sub-VFR conditions possible Friday through Sunday with multiple rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms. Winds generally northeast to east 5 to 10 knots, more gusty in heavy showers. && .MARINE... Winds may near low-end SCA levels in south to southwesterly channeling this afternoon and evening (mainly open/wider waters), and then again in northerly channeling on Thursday. SMWs appear possible this afternoon and evening as thunderstorms move over the waters. East to northeast SCA level winds are expected over much of the bay and surrounding inlets Friday and Saturday given increased onshore flow. No marine hazards are expected Sunday and Monday with winds switching back to the south and southeast. && .CLIMATE... Here are some daily temperature records during the May 19-20, 2026 timeframe: A '+' sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record. A '!' sign indicates the record is forecast to be tied or broken. ***WEDNESDAY, MAY 20TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 96F (1996) 73F (2019) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F (1996) 69F (2019) Baltimore (BWI) 95F (1962) 71F (2019)+ Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 97F (1962) 74F (1998)+ Martinsburg (MRB) 97F (1911) 70F (1998) Charlottesville (CHO) 96F (1996) 73F (1996) Annapolis (NAK) 98F (1997) 76F (1898) Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1996) 66F (1998) && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ533-534-537-542-543. && $$ DISCUSSION...LFR/KLW/DHOF/EST AVIATION...LFR/KLW/DHOF/EST MARINE...LFR/KLW/DHOF/EST