920 FXAK68 PAFC 201317 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 517 AM AKDT Wed May 20 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... Discussion: Mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions return to Southcentral today as an extensive cloud shield moves in ahead an approaching upper level shortwave trough. This shortwave is the last gasp of the Bering low that has been sending a series of shortwaves through southern AK over the past week. While the Bering surface low lifts north and eventually merges with an incoming Kamchatka low that is rapidly deepening near the far western Aleutians, a surface low to the east of Kodiak Island this morning will continue to move north towards the Copper River Delta before moving inland. The low has disrupted the coastal ridge which has brought several days of gusty gap flow winds. This disruption has allowed precipitation to spill over the Kenai and Chugach Mountains with minimal downsloping early this morning; however, as easterly flow increases to the north of the low as it moves into the northern Gulf, parts of the western Kenai up through the Mat Valley will see downsloping increase with rain becoming more showery. Rain will also spread into the Copper Basin as the low moves inland and the upper wave lifts up towards the ALCAN border. Looking ahead... The aforementioned Kamchatka low will lift up into the Bering...becoming the "new" Bering low. This low will bring another round of more widespread rain to Southcentral Thursday morning. The low will drift towards the Southwest Alaska coast, but will send several shortwave troughs across the AKPEN and into Southcentral keeping the overall pattern unsettled with below normal temperatures. - PP && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... A strong low is currently moving over the Adak area of the Aleutians. Rainfall and gusty winds up to gale-force will move eastward with the low along the Aleutians through today, with the low arriving at the western coast of the mainland by Thursday morning. Stronger winds through bays and passes over the Alaska Peninsula around Cold Bay occur on Thursday. Gap winds will diminish by Thursday afternoon into as winds turn westerly. Though small craft winds will linger in the nearshore waters through Friday afternoon. Showery precipitation will impact the Southwest Mainland Thursday through Saturday as the low stalls out over the mainland. There is a chance that some isolated lightning could occur with some of these showers in the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and on the foothills of the Kuskokwim Mountains on Friday. This precipitation will slowly diminish as the low weakens. Wind speeds for inland areas will mostly be breezy, with the coast seeing higher winds. Weak flow will expected over the Bering by Friday, allowing for lighter winds and lower precipitation chances over the Aleutians. -JAR && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)... Broad upper level troughing over the Bering Sea and Gulf looks to continue to remain in place through the long term. Several shortwaves rotating around the upper low across the western Bering, North Pacific, and into the Gulf will continue to support the active pattern and unsettled conditions across much of southern Alaska through this weekend into early next week. Models are in good agreement to begin the long term period with widespread showers across the southern Mainland as a shortwave lifts north out of the Gulf. Farther south, a more potent shortwave and surface low tracks across the southern Gulf with most of its moisture and energy directed towards the Panhandle. By early next week, the upper low over the BeringSea weakens in favor of a new, stronger low lifting north out of the North Pacific towards the Aleutians. Some uncertainty remains on the speed and exact track the deepening surface low takes as it approaches the Aleutian Chain, but all guidance eventually ends up tracking this system into the southeastern Bering Sea by late in the period. Gusty winds accompanied by light to moderate rainfall can be expected along the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula before pushing into the Gulf, with the heaviest precipitation expected along the southern AKPen and immediate Gulf coast. && .AVIATION... PANC...Periods of light rain showers are likely through this afternoon. Depending on cloud cover, there is the potential for more convective type showers to develop by late afternoon along the Chugach Mountains. Ceilings and visibility are expected to remain predominantly VFR but periods of MVFR are possible as showers move through. && $$  915 FXUS64 KLCH 201317 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 817 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - An unsettled pattern will be in place into the Memorial Day Holiday weekend as the southern jet stream brings a series of upper level disturbances to work with a very moist air mass. - The showers and thunderstorms that develop will have the potential to produce high rain rates and there is a risk of heavy rainfall and a risk for flooding into early next week. - All interests in flood prone low-lying areas or flood prone urban poor drainage area, along with those along stream and river basins should keep aware of the latest flood risk forecasts. - Temperatures will remain on the warm and humid side through the period. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A complex of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move eastward across the forecast area into Acadiana and then gradually weaken by daybreak. Showers and occasional thunderstorms will continue behind the line before also gradually decreasing by morning. Some high rain fall rates, brief gusty winds, and frequent lightning will be the main concerns for the next few hours. The ongoing convection is expected to work over the atmosphere enough that it is expected to take a while on Wednesday to activity going again. With a very moist air mass and daytime heating, showers and storms are expected to develop by early to mid afternoon with the higher chances where the old boundary will be located across the forecast area. No real changes are seen in the ongoing forecast for the remainder of the week and into the holiday weekend, as generally an upper level trough will be found across the Western US into the Rockies with an upper level ridge over the eastern Gulf and northwest Caribbean. In between the sub-tropical jet will stream over the forecast area bringing mid and upper level moisture from the Tropical Pacific to go along with the low level Gulf moisture from the southerly flow around a surface high east of the region. This will allow the forecast area to see a highly anomalous moist air mass with daily PWAT values over the 90th percentile of 1.79 inches and near the Max Moving Average of 2+ inches. Meanwhile, mean layer relative humidity between 100H-50H will be over 80 percent. Warm cloud precipitation processes will also be noted as the warm cloud layer is projected to be from 11k to 15k feet, noting an almost tropical like air mass. So, we do know that there will be several days of high rain chances with possible locally heavy rainfall and a flood risk. WPC has outlined a majority of the forecast area in a Marginal (1 out of 4) to Slight (2 out of 4) Risk or at least a 5 to 25 percent chance of excessive rainfall leading to flooding for each day through Sunday, and extended WPC hazards keep a risk of heavy rainfall with flooding possible all the way through May 27. What is of a lower confidence is the timing each day of when the precipitation will be the most widespread and at its heaviest. It will not rain all the time, but the timing of each upper level disturbance and if it comes during max daytime heating, will be the story of when the rain chances will be the highest. So each day will be more fine tuned the closer in time we get to each day. Also, as the antecedent conditions become more moist with wet grounds, and hydro flow begin to increase, the risk for flooding may increase in time. Otherwise, temperatures will remain rather warm with humid conditions through the period. 07/Rua && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 812 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A mixture of broken to overcast skies at different levels (ranging from VFRto LIFR) will persist through the morning, with all sites becoming VFR by the midday. Light and variable winds will prevail today as well. Later this afternoon into tonight, another round of showers and storms is expected to affect all sites, coming to an end by midnight. These storms will have the potential to produce isolated gusty winds, reductions in VIS, frequent lightning, and lower ceilings (MVFR to IFR). Conditions improve back to VFR post-convection through tomorrow morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Surface high pressure across the northern Gulf with a stalled frontal boundary to the north. This will allow for a persistent light to moderate southeast flow and light to modest seas through the week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will also continue through the week and remain high into the weekend as a series of upper level disturbances produce several waves of precipitation. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Expect modest southerly winds to continue through the next several days bringing in rich amounts of Gulf moisture. Afternoon Minimum RH values will be above 70 percent through the week into the weekend. High chances for daily showers and thunderstorms are also expected through the week into early next week as a stalled frontal boundary and a series of upper level disturbances provide waves of precipitation each day. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible. The high minimum relative humidity values and expected wet antecedent conditions is expected to keep fire weather in check. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07 AVIATION...17  996 FXAK67 PAJK 201319 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 519 AM AKDT Wed May 20 2026 .SYNOPSIS... - Wednesday a gale force system brings widespread rain to the region. - Showers over the panhandle on Thursday, then another front weakening and falling apart Friday. - Quick look at the holiday weekend, a potentially stronger Summer system could move to impact the panhandle Sunday. && .SHORT TERM...A developing gale force low is moving northward through the Alaska gulf Wednesday morning. An associated warm front is already impacting the outer coast bringing light rain to Yakutat and Sitka as of this discussion along with stout winds in nearby waters. As the low continues to move northward towards Anchorage, an associated cold front will push into the outer coast causing winds to gradually increase and moderate to locally heavy rainfall (for this time of year) to spread across the panhandle through the day Wednesday. The heaviest rainfall is expected to fall along the NE gulf coast and northern panhandle (~1 to 2 inches over 24 hours), with lower amounts expected for the panhandle south of Sumner Strait (0.5 to 1 inch over 24 hours). Gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph, especially at higher elevations, are expected to push across much of Central and northern SE AK through the day ahead of and along the approaching front. Despite the unseasonably wet nature of this system, flooding concerns are still not expected since snow levels are expected to remain relatively low for this time of year. This does mean however that some snow could mix in in the overnight hours near White Pass, but no significant accumulation is expected. By Thursday morning, the front is expected to have largely dissipated and pushed inland, with light shower activity continuing primarily for the northern panhandle. Winds will also subside quickly on the backside of the front as ridging briefly builds in from the south. For more info on what to expect for the upcoming holiday weekend, see the long term discussion. .LONG TERM.../ Friday to Tuesday / A front sweeps the western gulf Thursday evening and to the eastern Gulf of Alaska Thursday night and Friday. Yakutat should see good rain rates Thursday night and early. The front is forecast to be weakening, as the feature moves way from the parent low which stayed over Bristol Bay so the feature that rolls across the panhandle Friday is a frontal band followed by a ridge over the gulf to the panhandle for the start of the weekend. For the Memorial Day Weekend / Saturday to Monday / Damp conditions look to be the norm for Saturday as an area of vorticity/trough like feature moves through the panhandle. Highest likelihood of precipitation is from the central panhandle southward, though the amount of precip looks to be light. For Sunday into Monday however, what was looking like a decent strength system heading toward Dixon Entrance area yesterday, has switched tracks farther south, taking any higher winds and precip mostly with it. Only the GFS is keeping more impactful winds and precip in the area for Sunday into Monday (though it is an outlier), and even then it is mostly for the southern half of the panhandle. This farther south track does mean a higher likelihood of drier weather for the northern panhandle Sunday into Monday due to downsloping conditions from easterly flow, and there is a chance that the drier weather could extend into the south as well if the current southward trend of the low track continues. Monday could also turn out to be one of the warmer days of the weekend with high temps approaching the upper 50s with several breaks in the cloud cover possible. Into mid next week the trend reverses back to damp and cool conditions as more systems come into the panhandle from the gulf. && .AVIATION...MVFR and VFR conditions continue this morning across the panhandle with MVFR ceilings starting to become more widespread. Ceilings are expected to decrease down to MVFR with the incoming front and associated rain. Visibilities are also expected to drop during the heavier periods of precipitation. As the front approaches and moves across the panhandle, some areas of LLWS are possible across the NE Gulf coast. Rain is expected to continue into this evening and could help to bring down ceilings and visibilities down to IFR, especially for locations that tend to be sheltered from stronger winds. && .MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A gale force front continues to approach the Gulf waters this morning with gale force winds expected from Cape St. Elias down to Cape Edgecumbe during the day today. Behind this front, strong westerly breezes are expected and should persist through tonight before diminishing tomorrow morning. With this front, wave heights are expected to build to 12-17 ft across the Gulf waters before decreasing to 9-12 ft this evening with a southwesterly swell component. Headed into Thursday, winds across the Gulf are expected to be closer to moderate to fresh breezes from the west. Wave heights during this time are also expected to drop to around 5-7 ft. Inside (Inner Channels): Light to gentle breezes continue for most of the Inner Channels this morning with the exception of Lynn Canal which is already seeing moderate to fresh breezes. Winds are expected to increase later this morning as a gale force front crosses the Gulf waters bringing strong breezes to near gales for the Inner Channels. With these increasing winds, waves are expected to increase to 3-6 ft with higher seas expected near ocean entrances. Behind the front, winds are expected to diminish down to moderate to strong breezes as well as diminishing seas. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ323-327. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ642>644-651-652-662>664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-053-641-661. && $$ SHORT TERM...STJ LONG TERM...Bezenek/EAL AVIATION...SF MARINE...SF Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  211 FXUS63 KJKL 201328 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 928 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower and thunderstorms will become more prevalent today, with widespread rain chances continuing through the next seven days, including the holiday weekend. - The switch to an active and wetter pattern yields temperatures closer to normal readings, and is likely to provide at least temporary relief from drought conditions. && .UPDATE... Issued at 928 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026 Convection along the I-64 corridor should gradually fade over the next couple of hours before more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity moves in from the west late morning. Aside from small hourly PoP/Sky/T/Td adjustments no other changes where needed for the short-term forecast. UPDATE Issued at 622 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026 Showers and thunderstorms have developed in the last hour or so along a moisture (i.e., theta-e) gradient roughly parallel to the western escarpment of the Cumberland Plateau. This activity is ahead of the cold front, which is still west and northwest of the forecast area across central Kentucky. PoPs and Sky grids have been updated to reflect these trends. Hourly T/Tds have also been updated in the very near term. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 328 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026 A cold front will move southeast into eastern Kentucky this afternoon, then come to a stall later tonight through Thursday along the TN and VA borders. Meanwhile, broad forcing for ascent increases across the area through the day as a slow-moving shortwave approaches from the southwest, with the shortwave becoming gradually sheared out across southeastern Kentucky tonight into Thursday as shortwave ridging builds over the area by Thursday evening. As the front approaches from the northwest today and the aforementioned shortwave approaches from the southwest, rain chances will steadily increase. Current dew points in the 60s combined with a developing mid-level 30-40 kt speed max ahead of the shortwave will provide the kinematics and thermodynamics for scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, with low to moderate buoyancy from surface high temperatures forecast to reach the lower to mid 80s for much of the area, warmest in the Big Sandy Basin. Thus, a few isolated severe storms will be possible, with damaging winds and hail the primary severe threats. Additionally, downpours may cause localized high water issues in poor drainage areas. Showers and thunderstorm activity transitions to more of a shower/rain threat tonight into Thursday as the shortwave becomes sheared and the cold front stalls near or along the TN and VA state lines, creating more of an overrunning situation. The building upper ridging Thursday may allow for northwestern parts of the forecast area, especially toward the I-64 corridor and Bluegrass region, to stay mostly if not completely dry, as shower activity becomes more confined with time closer to the stalled front across southeastern Kentucky. Temperatures tonight will likely cool into the 50s, especially for northern areas behind the cold front, while lower to mid 60s for lows are expected toward the TN border to the south of the stalling front. Thursday's highs will be below normal for northern and central parts of the forecast area, likely around 70 degrees under persistent cloud cover and shower chances, with highs closer to normal near and south of the front near the TN and VA borders. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 302 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026 The forecast period begins with the region likely situated north of a frontal zone Thursday night as a shortwave in southwest flow approaches the region. This should support the boundary lifting north as a warm front as a sfc wave rides into the OH Valley. With the northwest lifting warm front, it is probable that chances of convection will spread north through the overnight period Thursday night. Overnight lows are still expected to be mild as the warm front lifts north across the area. This warm front will cross the region on Friday, serving as the catalyst for widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms throughout the day as another wave moves along the boundary and treks toward the Great Lakes for Friday night. While marginal thermodynamic indices will once again favor pulse-type, non-severe convection, the primary hazard shifts toward heavy rainfall and high precipitation efficiency. This boundary likely remains north of the area to start the weekend, before sagging back into the OH Valley and stalling to end the period. Passing disturbances and the moist airmass, with PWs per the 12Z LREF generally in the 1.3 to 1.7 inch range, or the 90th percentile, should at least be conducive for a diurnal uptick in convection for Friday to Monday. The 12Z Tuesday LREF event totals through 8 PM EDT on Monday have a min to max range of 0.75 inches to near 7 inches, while the 25th to 75th percentile range from 1.5 or 1.75 inches near the VA border to 3.75 inches in the north and west. Recent deterministic guidance projects widespread QPF amounts ranging from 2.00 inches in the Lake Cumberland area to 2.75 inches across northeastern portions of the forecast area, with lesser amounts near 1.5 inches in southeastern KY near the West Virginia and Virginia borders, due to local downsloping effects. As a side note, since the area is dry, heavy rainfall on top of moisture starved ground could create runoff issues leading to potential hydrologic issues. Ultimately, this period will highlight a distinct regime shift toward a much wetter synoptic setup, a stark difference from the persistent dry pattern observed over the last few weeks and months. Due to persistent cloud cover and rain, daytime highs will remain capped in the upper 70s to mid 80s, while overnight lows drop into the lower to middle 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026 Showers and thunderstorms have developed along a moisture gradient between KIOB/KSYM and KJKL/KSME this morning, and this activity will move northeast and primarily impact KSYM and possibly KIOB this morning with sub-VFR conditions. Otherwise, showers and thunderstorms will re-develop between midday and mid-afternoon across the area, with an active mid-afternoon through early evening period before activity diminishes to showers and pockets of steadier rain, though an isolated thunderstorm cannot be totally ruled out through the late evening. As the cold front stalls out across the area after 00z, expect more widespread MVFR or lower conditions with low cigs and possibly viz to develop at most if not all sites, continuing through the end of the TAF period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEERTSON SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...JP/VORST/CMC AVIATION...CMC  585 FXUS61 KPBZ 201337 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 937 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe storms possible in northern West Virginia this afternoon and evening. Confidence is increasing for a wet Memorial Day weekend. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Potential for isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts exists southeast of Pittsburgh this afternoon. 2) Confidence in soaking rainfall during the Memorial Day weekend continues to increase. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Some scattered showers continue across the region during the early morning hours in a moist environment with lingering outflow boundaries. More concentrated showers and thunderstorms are expected to arrive after sunrise as a weak shortwave rides northeastward ahead of a cold front that is slated to cross today. The front should be draped across the northwestern portion of the CWA at 12Z, and should cross through the Pittsburgh area around midday. Ongoing rain and cloud cover ahead of the boundary lend some uncertainty to the amount of destabilization that will be able to occur over our southeastern counties this afternoon. REFS guidance suggests 500-1000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE by 18Z in this area, while the HREF goes a little higher in Preston/Tucker Counties, furthest ahead of the front. Shear in the 0-6km layer in this area is not too impressive, remaining under 30 knots ahead of the front, which will limit storm organization. Still, there may be a relatively brief window during the mid-to-late afternoon for tall storms to take advantage of marginal DCAPE to produce isolated strong to damaging gusts. Hail appears to be a secondary threat due to generally poor mid-level lapse rates and the limited shear. SPC has issued a Marginal (level 1 of 5) Risk for areas southeast of a rough line from Connellsville PA to New Martinsville WV. The passage of the front should end any severe threat by 00Z. Some very localized instances of heavy rainfall are also possible with these storms. Cloud-layer flow will be largely parallel to the front, which could encourage storm training. Also, expected precipitable water values of 1.5 to 1.6 inches is at the very top of climatology. HREF/REFS max precip potential suggest localized 1.5- 1.75 inch totals are not out of the question in northern West Virginia. Still, 3-hour FFG values are generally near or just above 2 inches in this area, and thus anything more than an isolated water issue or two is not expected. KEY MESSAGE 2... The front may waver near the southern reaches of the CWA through Thursday night, keeping occasional rain chances in the forecast, especially south of I-70. The environment favorable for strong convection and heavy rainfall will have departed though, and no major impact from this activity is expected. Memorial Day weekend continues to look quite wet overall. Surface low pressure lifts northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley to our west Friday into Saturday, bringing the boundary back north as a warm front and pushing a broad inverted trough into our region. This should return anomalously high precipitable water values back north, accompanied by broad isentropic lift. Also during this time, surface high pressure is forecast to be centered over the Upper Great Lakes and New England states. This setup is similar to past events that have generated 2+ inches of rainfall across the local area, though it should be noted that minor deviations (e.g., east-west positioning of the low or strength of the ridge) could result in the axis of heaviest rainfall shifting around (or away from) the local area. Nevertheless, the NBM continues to illustrate a 60-80% chance for at least an inch of 24-hr rainfall accumulation Friday into Saturday, and a 20-50% chance for 2+ inches. A second wave of rain is then forecast Sunday into Monday though that one appears a bit more progressive in nature thanks to a potential Great Lakes shortwave that has some forward momentum. NBM probabilities for an inch top out in the 20-30 percent range between 12Z Sunday and 12Z Monday. When looking at the total 72-hour period from 12Z Friday to 12Z Monday, the NBM has a 50 to 65 percent chance for 2 inches or more of rain across the majority of the forecast area. Extended machine-learning guidance suggests severe weather chances remain quite low through this period, so that aspect is of lesser concern. However, MMEFS river guidance does suggest some potential impact on area rivers by early next week in higher-end precipitation scenarios, with a number of forecast points on the larger rivers potentially reaching action stage. This also suggests that flooding issues on smaller streams and creeks may become an issue in time. It is too early to discuss specifics and forecast details are yet to be solidified, but this signal will warrant monitoring through the week. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to continue into the late evening with the passage of a cold front. Expected MVFR to IFR cigs and vis with passing light to moderate showers. A few storms could be strong, mostly between 18Z to 23Z near MGW. A wind shift to the NW, and eventually N, is also expected after the passage of the front. Some improvement back to MVFR is expected by evening, though a crossing wave along the front could spread a few more showers across the region. Restrictions will likely continue into tonight with the crossing wave along the front. VFR should return to most airports on Thursday as high pressure briefly builds in from the N, though MGW could see restrictions continue through late morning. Outlook... Widespread restrictions in rain are expected to overspread the region from S-N Friday into Saturday with a warm front. Some improvement is possible Sunday until a cold front approaches later in the day. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CL AVIATION...Hefferan/WM  739 FXHW60 PHFO 201343 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 343 AM HST Wed May 20 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Trade winds will steadily strengthen through Thursday and could produce advisory level winds by Thursday afternoon, especially over Maui County and the Big Island. Passing showers will continue to ride in with the breezy to windy trade winds through early next week, primarily during the nights and early morning hours across windward and mauka areas. && .DISCUSSION... This morning's radar and satellite imagery shows scattered showers riding in with the breezy trade winds mainly over windward and mauka areas. As we go through the day today and into tonight, trade winds will steadily strengthen and a drier air mass will move over the state. With the drier air mass in place by Thursday, showers will remain on the lighter side, but we should continue to see scattered showers over windward and mauka areas. As the drier air mass moves in on Thursday, the inversion will lower and strengthen, which will result in some gusty winds over and lee side of terrain. Winds are expected to reach advisory thresholds on Thursday for the windier areas around Maui County and the Big Island, where gusts of up to 50 mph will be possible. For Oahu, wind gusts should be slightly weaker but gusts of at least 40 mph should be expected for areas downwind of terrain by late Thursday. For the weekend, windy conditions will likely continue through Saturday. Trade winds could drop a notch on Sunday, but nonetheless breezy to strong trades will likely continue through early next week. Passing showers will continue to ride in with the strong trades from time to time and will mainly be focused over windward and mauka areas. && .AVIATION... Fresh to strong trade winds will be in place today through Friday. Showers will mostly affect windward and mountain areas as well as the night time and early morning hours as a band of moisture fills in this morning. Drier air is expected to fill in later today into tonight, limiting showers. Brief MVFR conditions are expected in the showers, but otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration is in place for Kauai due to the clouds and showers. This AIRMET will likely be canceled later today as drier air moves in. AIRMET Tango is in place due to strengthening trade winds and will likely remain in place through the day. && .MARINE... The high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will strengthen over the next few days into the strong to gale range from Thursday into early Friday morning. A Gale Watch was issued for the Alenuihaha and Pailolo Channels. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect and will expand to all island waters by Thursday. Expect SCA to continue into the first half of next week. Small, short to medium period north-northwest (330 degree) swell energy will decline through Thursday. The next small north- northwest (330 degree) swell will move into the Hawaii region on Saturday increasing surf heights along north and west facing shores through the weekend. A series of small, long period south swell energy supports near- average surf along south facing shores over the next seven days. Meanwhile, strengthening trades maintain elevated surf along east facing shores into next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM HST Friday for Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters- Kauai Windward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters. Small CraftAdvisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha Channel-Pailolo Channel. Gale Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for Alenuihaha Channel-Pailolo Channel. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kino AVIATION...Tsamous MARINE...Bohlin  727 FXUS61 KRLX 201342 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 942 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 935 AM Update... Torrential rain with initially elevated convection continues across NE KY/SE OH at this hour in a belt of weak ascent associated associated with a nebulous departing jet max. Should see this activity exit to the north over the next few hours as ascent weakens. Additional activity will become focused along a slow moving cold front this afternoon into this evening. The main foci will be on damaging wind gusts due to steep low level lapse rates as well as training convection given weak southwesterly environmental flow with the cold front oriented southwest to northeast. Will be considering a targeted flash flood watch with 12Z guidance with concerns mainly focused on heavy downpours getting into any of the metro areas. For other locations, we can take (and need) a fairly large amount of rain, but rainfall rates could still locally exceed soil capacities. SPC has upgraded our convective outlook to a slight risk to reflect potential for aforementioned damaging wind gusts. 554 AM Update... Aviation Forecast Discussion update. 332 AM update... The Marginal Risk for severe storms today has expanded northwestward to encompass parts of southeast Ohio and continues to highlight a wind and hail threat. A soaking holiday is still on tap for Memorial Day in response to a wafting frontal boundary. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms blanket the forecast area today amid an advancing cold front. Activity today could serve up damaging wind gusts from stronger storms and localized high water issues within heavier downpours and/or training cells. 2) The end of the work week into Memorial Day weekend will feature episodic rounds of showers and storms with the frontal boundary hung up over the region. Cooler temperatures on Thursday will gradually rebound towards unseasonably warm readings by the end of the weekend and into the start of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Upper level troughing in the Great Lakes region will drive a cold front into the forecast area today, beginning a stretch of active weather through the holiday weekend. Radar trends at the time of writing depicts scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms streaming through Ohio and grazing our far northwestern zones. As the front slips into the forecast area today, moisture drawing up ahead of the boundary will help serve up additional rounds of showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Messaging has remained unchanged for convective activity progged for this afternoon, with an axis of destabilization taking place in locations that remain south of the frontal boundary. Only minor modifications were made to the Day One convective outlook, which now expands the Marginal Risk back into our southeast Ohio counties. This suggests a slightly slower progression of the front and more opportunity for instability to make an appearance during peak heating hours. Adequate CAPE and shear levels support isolated damaging winds with storms today in addition to a lesser threat for hail. Storms will be ongoing late tonight along the higher terrain as the frontal boundary sluggishly passes overhead, but becoming mainly stratiform rain in the wake of FROPA. Forecast rainfall amounts ranging from half an inch to an inch from today into Thursday morning will help to put a dent in our prevailing drought conditions. Early morning CAMs do suggest a ribbon of higher amounts streaming in late this evening into the overnight hours from southwestern West Virginia up into the northeast mountains associated with a burst of heavier rain. This could impose localized water issues as heavy, and potentially repetitive, showers and storms press up through this corridor. With climatologically high PWATs invading the area today, floated around the idea of flash flooding concerns, but opted to hold off with this issuance as 3 hour flash flood guidance for the CWA remains above two inches, coupled with antecedent dry soils so far this spring. KEY MESSAGE 2... The frontal boundary will complete its passage through the Central Appalachians Thursday morning, but will become hung up over the Carolinas and the Mississippi Valley as it contends with a strong area of high pressure parked offshore. The close proximity of the boundary will result in ongoing showers and storms for our mountainous areas and as far west as the Charleston metro area during the day Thursday, while locations to the north and west relish in drier weather courtesy of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes. The front will continue to promote unsettled weather over the area through the end of the week as the boundary remains draped just to our south, eventually lifting back north as a warm front heading into the holiday weekend. Widespread chances for rain and afternoon thunderstorms prevail as moisture continues usher in from the southwest as we remain in this holding pattern due to the nettlesome front. Impacts from this multi-day soaking rain could eventually be observed as local creeks and streams gradually become overwhelmed by excessive runoff. Cooler temperatures infiltrate the area on Thursday in the wake of the cold front, bringing an end to the early season heatwave. Should see temperatures gradually rebound each day as the aforementioned boundary lifts as a warm front, returning daytime highs to unseasonably warm readings for Sunday and Memorial Day. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms upstream of our airspace will gradually shift south and eastward this morning and become widespread throughout the day as a cold front advances. VFR conditions to start will be followed by a period of SHRA/VCTS late this morning into the afternoon, then concluding the valid TAF period with crashing ceilings. By late tonight, all terminals are progged to drop to low MVFR and eventually to LIFR/IFR amid ongoing moderate to heavy rain. This boundary is expected to stir up active weather for the end of the week and into the holiday weekend, likely resulting in restricted flight conditions as a result. Should see a wind shift from southwest to northwest throughout the day amid the encroaching cold front. Outside of strong winds produced by thunderstorms, occasional gusts around 15kts could be observed this afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High tonight, medium on Wednesday. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions associated with showers and storms on Wednesday may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...IFR conditions are possible on Thursday with showers and/or low stratus, especially in/near the mountains. Brief IFR is also possible at times Friday through the weekend with showers and/or thunderstorms. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05/JP AVIATION...05  015 FXUS63 KABR 201349 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 849 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Moisture chances increase to 60-70% on Friday. Rain amounts generally between 1/4 to 1/2 inch and a negligible threat for severe storms. - Turning warmer late weekend/early next week, about 10 to 20 degrees above normal with highs in the 80s to near 90. && .UPDATE... Issued at 839 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 The Freeze/Frost headlines expired back at the top of the hour. Temperatures today, with plenty of sunshine and a developing south breeze, should warm into, at least, the 60s across much of the CWA. The right entrance region of a 100+kts upper jet streak will be lingering over the central/northern plains today. When combined with forecast mid-level lapse rates between 6.5-8C/km this upper forcing feature may be able to generate some isolated/scattered showers/storms up into the Murdo/Pierre area of the CWA this afternoon/early this evening. The most recent HREF and current RAP/HRRR output supports a few showers moving north-northeast into that area. PoPs are already in the forecast to account for this potential. Will probably have to tweak it later on for coverage/timing. UPDATE Issued at 547 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 UPDATE for 12z Aviation discussion && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Not much overall going on for the next several days. This mornings frost while still ongoing is only for this morning and the rest of the forecast is dominated by moderating temperatures and a pair of systems Friday. High pressure moves east today, with return (southerly) flow across the state. The gradient is about 8-12mb across the state, so a breezy (Gusts 20 to 35 mph) pair of days. The first shortwave of note lifts up across the southeast part of the state headed up along the MN/SD state line embedded within southwest flow mid-day Friday. The second wave takes a similar trajectory just slightly to the west Friday night. The short distance between waves means a mainly continuous precipitation mainly east river. Profiles are moist adiabatic/no instability with some shear, so mostly just rain. NBM mean is between 1/4 to 1/3 for the Missouri valley to around 1/2 inch in the Watertown area. The upper trough departs, with zonal flow aloft with increasing heights Sunday/Monday. Thats followed by a deepening trough across the western CONUS, all of which end up pumping warmer air aloft into the region. 850mb temperatures still are a standard deviation above climo, and as such Sun-Tues temperatures are forecast 10 to 20 degrees above normal. NBM dewpoints are also on the rise with broad/weak and sometimes intermittent southerly flow up through the Gulf and across the Plains. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 547 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...10 DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...06  034 FXAK69 PAFG 201349 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 549 AM AKDT Wed May 20 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Broad troughiness continues over the Bering. This is allowing for daily chances for isolated showers across much of the West Coast and the Interior. High pressure holds strong over the Arctic which will keep the cooler temperatures and low ceilings over the North Slope over the next couple of days. Another low will move inland from the northern Gulf of Alaksa, bringing a line of showers across the Interior throughout the day, today, and into tomorrow. Another, more pronounced low will move along the Aleutians, setting up around Bristol Bay sometime Thursday morning. An abundant amount of energy is associated with this low and will wrap a series of shortwaves into the Central Interior and West Coast over the next couple of days. In addition, southerly flow will be set up over the Alaska Range as these shortwaves move north, setting up the potential for another round of gusty winds through the Isabel and Windy Pass on Thursday. The upper-level trough will slowly elongate eastward through the end of the week which will slightly increase the chances for isolated thunderstorms through the start of the weekend. && .KEY WEATHER MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... - An increased chance of precipitation today as a system moves north across the Interior. This will set up daily chances for isolated showers and a non-zero chance for a thunderstorm or two. - Chances for thunderstorms become more scattered across the Central Interior by Friday afternoon. - Seasonably warm temperatures are expected to continue across the Interior through much of the week. West Coast and Western Interior... - Gusty S-SE winds are expected to continue across the West Coast through with an upper-level shortwave passage. Thunderstorm chances continue for portions of the Western Interior. - Showery conditions are expected along the Lower Yukon and Yukon Delta regions throughout the week. Light showers expected today with heavier showers possible on Thursday. These showers will be mostly rain, especially nearer the Western Interior, but some periods of snow and light wintry mix are possible near St. Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait Coast. North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Breezy northeasterly winds along the Western North Slope weaken slightly and shift more easterly. E to ENE winds 15 to 25 mph are expected across the Arctic Coast through the rest of the day. - Diurnal showers along the southern portion of the Brooks Range are expected to continue through the week. Little to no precipitation is expected for the North Slope - Chilly temperatures persist with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens along the North Slope. A gradient of temperatures across the Brooks Range with highs in the 50s to near 60 along the southern slopes and low 40s for the northern slopes. - Low clouds and areas of fog persist across the Arctic Coast and will likely remain through much of the week, especially along the Eastern Arctic Coast. && .FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION... Isolated showers continue across portions of the Central Interior and West Coast as the remnants of a shortwave move NW over the Norton Sound. Another low continues to work its way into the northern portion of the Gulf of Alaksa. Models continue to show agreement in this low setting up between the 150 and 140 degree longitude line, which will be a good setup for wrap around precipitation into the Interior. Meanwhile, a more pronounced low will be work its way up the Aleutians, entering Bristol Bay Thursday morning. Ahead of this low, a warm front will swing across the YK-Delta late tonight into early Thursday morning. However, some isolated showers may continue to linger across the West Coast throughout the day, today. Cold air will continue to be advected from the north across the Bering, which will allow for mixed precipitation chances to continue St. Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait. This new low over Bristol Bay will eventually take over as the main driver for the broad troughiness across much of the state. With this, a series of shortwave will wrap around this low which will allow daily chances for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to continue across much of the state through the end of the week. A more pronounced line of energy will begin to work its way north, by Thursday, as it stretches from the YK-Delta to the Eastern Interior. This will help tighten the gradient and allow for another round of gap winds through the Alaska Range on Thursday. The main bulk of the energy will work its way into the Kuskokwim valley on Friday, setting up the next chance for scattered, afternoon thunderstorms. The best chance for storms, Friday, will be across the Central and Western Interior. Looking over the North Slope, high pressure continues to linger off the northern Arctic Coast. Cooler temperatures, breezy east winds, and low cloud ceilings are expected to continue as the overall pattern is not expected to change much over the next few days. As the end of the short-term period rolls in, models are showing the potential for a shortwave to peel away from the main low and work its way east across the Gulf. Doing this will help stretch out the trough farther east, potentially setting up easterly flow across portions of the Interior by the start of the weekend. A set up like this would be favorable for isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Interior throughout the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... The overall pattern remains mostly the same through much of the week with a low in the Bering Sea and ridging over Western Canada. This pattern will continue to support broad southerly flow across the region. Downsloping effects will work to keep most of the Central and Eastern Interior dry and warm with a few afternoon rain showers possible tomorrow. Increased chances for precipitation return this weekend as an influx of moisture is brought into the Interior. Accumulations should remain light with localized higher amounts expected in southwest Alaska, the Brooks Range, and where thunderstorms are present. Although chances are low, a non-zero chance for lightning is possible Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon across portions of the Interior, Brooks Range, and Yukon Flats. Expect high temperatures in the 60s and lows in the 40s through the week, with min RH values ranging between 20 to 30% in the Central and Eastern Interior and 30 to 40% in the Western Interior. The greatest fire concern this week will be near Delta Junction as strong southerly gap winds strengthen again on Thursday due to a tightening pressure gradient over the Alaska Range. Expect sustained winds 25 to 35 mph gusting as high as 60 mph possible. Winds will gradually weaken throughout the day Friday before subsiding by Saturday morning. Although min RH values are expected to be a bit higher on Thursday (around 30%), critical fire weather conditions may still develop in Delta Junction Thursday afternoon. The biggest limiting factor for this will be temperatures and whether or not highs in the mid to upper 50s can dry out the atmosphere enough to reach an min RH value of 25% or lower during the afternoon. Therefore, we will continue to monitor the situation throughout the day tomorrow. && .HYDROLOGY... Yukon River: The breakup front on the Yukon has passed Russian Mission. As of Monday evening, an ice jam 10 miles downstream of Russian Mission remains in place mostly unchanged. A Flood Warning remains in effect. Extensive flooding of the lower portion of Holy Cross community was occurring Tuesday, including the Holy Cross runway. Water remains high on the Yukon upriver from the breakup front due to snowmelt and the Yuki Ice Jam release. Water has inundated the road to the airport at both Grayling and Holy Cross. Flood warnings remain in effect. The ice jam located downriver of Russian Mission is made up of about 3 miles of large intact ice sheets extending from Roosevelt Island to Seven Mile. River Watch overflew the ice jam at noon Tuesday and again at 5pm and saw no change. About 60 miles of chunk and pan ice extend from the head of the jam upriver past Holy Cross. The most extensive flooding is occurring at Holy Cross and in the lowlands between Holy Cross and Anvik. Most large Yukon River ice jams during recent years decay, erode and fail within a few days. The current jam at Russian Mission is going on day 3. Chena: The Chena River continues to respond to warmer temperatures with higher elevation snowmelt leading to rivers running higher than normal, but likely remaining below action stage. Additional Information: Visit www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest hydro information. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services, law enforcement, or to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.. && .EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7... High pressure in the Arctic will allow for persistent easterly winds to blow along the Arctic coast and northerly winds along the West Coast through the weekend. Scattered showers will be possible across most of Northern Alaska from Saturday into the weekend, with isolated thunderstorms possible among these showers in the Interior, especially in western areas. Generally warm conditions will persist throughout the period south of the Brooks Range, with highs in the 50s and 60s. The West Coast will likely see highs in the 30s and 40s, with 20s and 30s on the North Slope. Additional showers will be possible across Northern Alaska early next week ahead of another potential system in southwestern Alaska. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ837-849. Flood Watch for AKZ826-830. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850. && $$ Twombly Saltzman - Extended Santiago - Fire Wx