484 FXUS61 KAKQ 201100 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 700 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Aviation discussion and key messages. Lowered high temperatures across the north tomorrow, but increased them across the south. Lowered temperatures a bit more for Friday and Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Another hot day ahead today, with Thursday also looking quite warm for the southern half of the area. A strong cold front brings the potential for strong to severe storms to northern portions of the area late this evening. 2) An increasingly unsettled pattern takes shape from Thursday through the Memorial Day weekend. Generally cooler to start, with periods of rain Thursday night and Friday, followed by a low-confidence temperature forecast for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 700 AM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Another hot day ahead today, with Thursday also looking quite warm for the southern half of the area. A strong cold front brings the potential for strong to severe storms to northern portions of the area late this evening. High pressure remains centered well offshore, with breezy S-SW flow across the area this morning. Temperatures are quite mild, with readings averaging 70-75 deg F region-wide as of 07z. Another day of near-record highs is forecast this afternoon, with the record of 97F at RIC looking particularly susceptible to being eclipsed. Upper ridging holds for one more day area- wide, as compressional heating maximizes ahead of an approaching cold front. Strong mixing and ongoing drought conditions will continue to allow early morning dewpoints to mix out by afternoon, falling back into the upper 50s to low 60s and keeping max heat index values generally capped right around actual high air temperatures, which will once again range from the mid to upper 90s inland to the lower 90s closer to the coast under a mostly sunny sky. As for the well-advertised cold front, multi-model consensus continues to slow its arrival, lagging into later this evening across the north, pushing into southern VA south of US-460 into NE NC later tomorrow morning/early afternoon. 00z CAMs continue to show sparse convection only reaching the far northern and western portions of the area, likely staying out of the RIC metro through much of Wednesday evening. SPC has more or less maintained a Day 1 Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for the northern half of the forecast area, though the risk of severe storms over the local area still looks quite marginal. Given the slower timing of the front, it still appears that the better instability and forcing remain to our N/NW. Storm timing over the local area is quite likely to hold off long enough that cells will start to dissipate as they arrive after 00z tonight into early Thursday morning. That said, there remains some potential for a few stronger to severe storms, mainly for far northern portions of the area north of Richmond, over to the Northern Neck, and the MD Eastern Shore. Specifically, the best chance of stronger storms likely comes in the event of convective outflows from more widespread storms to our NNW. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat with any storms that can penetrate the area, though mid-level lapse rates do steepen to 6.5-7 C/km as low levels moisten up this evening. Therefore, an isolated instance of large hail cannot be completely ruled out. KEY MESSAGE 2...An increasingly unsettled pattern takes shape from Thursday through the Memorial Day weekend. Generally cooler to start, with periods of rain Thursday night and Friday, followed by a low-confidence temperature forecast for the weekend. A shortwave trough is still forecast to eject northeast across the northern Plains and upper Midwest late tonight, pushing into Ontario and Quebec Thursday. This will serve to dampen the SE ridge, while allowing cool high pressure to settle over the Great Lakes and interior Northeast. Meanwhile, the cold front pushes south through the rest of the area Thursday. The slower frontal timing will allow much of the southern half of the area, mainly south of US-460, to sneak out another very warm day ahead of the boundary as it slowly drops south into the Carolinas later Thursday into Friday. While highs remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the northern half of the area, highs well into the 80s are forecast across south-central and southeast VA into northeast NC. Increasing overrunning moisture and quickly rising PW values will allow rain chances to ramp up quickly Thursday afternoon, especially along and south of US-58. Showers and scattered storms are expected to develop and focus along the front as it drops across the southern third of the area Thursday afternoon into Thu evening, eventually settling over the Carolinas on Friday. In its wake, an emerging cool air/CAD wedge setup takes hold for Friday. Forecast highs remain in the 60s to 70s Friday with periods of mainly stratiform light rain and drizzle. There is still some uncertainty with respect to the durability of the cool air/CAD wedge setup heading into the weekend. Namely, because of the mid-level ridging, there is a growing signal that the warm front remains pinned to our south a bit longer, therefore holding the wedge airmass in place into the weekend. This injects a bit more uncertainty into temperatures for Saturday, and possibly Sunday as well, as stable, low-level NE marine flow persists. Eventually, the warm front does lift back north over the area to fully erode the CAD airmass Sunday and Monday. Stagnant flow will then likely result in that weakening frontal boundary getting hung up over northern portions of the area late in the holiday weekend into early next week. This leads to the potential for continued unsettled conditions lingering throughout the holiday weekend. Cooler temperatures than currently in the forecast are quite possible for both Saturday and Sunday, though quick warming is likely heading into early next week as mid-level ridging rebuilds east of the Rockies. The unsettled pattern will allow for rain chances virtually every day from Thursday through the middle of next week. While the weekend certainly doesn't look to be a washout, rain chances will be higher than they've been of late each day into the middle of next week. Hopefully holiday plans won't be interrupted, but at this stage in the ongoing drought, any rainfall is welcome! && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 655 AM EDT Tuesday VFR conditions prevail for the 12z/20 TAF period. Clear or mostly clear skies are forecast for the bulk of the forecast period, with clouds increasing from the NW this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. There's a low- end chance for showers/storms to impact RIC/SBY toward the tail end of the period, with chances remain much too low for inclusion in the TAF at this time. Rain chances increase at SBY after 00z/8pm this evening into early Thu morning, but likely hold off at remaining terminals until Thu afternoon. SW winds ~10kt through the period, with occasional gusts to 20 kt through this afternoon. Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible starting early Thu morning as a cold front brings showers and isolated storms to the local area. An unsettled pattern will likely bring additional restrictions through the end of the week and into the weekend. && .MARINE... As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA conditions are expected across the local waters today and tonight. - A front crosses the waters Thursday morning, bringing the next chance at SCA conditions from Thursday through Friday due to NE winds of 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. High pressure remains stretched across the Southeast this morning, producing SW winds of 10-15 kts across the local waters. This stagnant pattern will allow winds to remain primarily SSW around 10 to 15 kt. with some gusts to 20 kts in the Bay and coastal waters late this afternoon and into this evening. This pattern will finally start to break down as a cold front approaches the area late tonight into Thursday morning. This cold front is currently forecast to cross the waters some time early Thursday with increasing NE winds in its wake. Guidance continues to trend upwards with wind speeds, as the front is forecast to stall across our just south of our area. Gradient winds will remain elevated through Friday, but may struggle to increase as much in the southern waters due to the location of the front. NE winds will average 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt from Thursday through Friday. SCAs appear likely for portions of the bay (due to winds) and coastal waters N of the VA-NC border (due to seas building to 5-6 ft behind the front). Local wind probabilities show a relatively high (60-90%) chance of sustained 18 kt winds on the middle/lower bay from Thu-Fri. At this time, the front is progged to lift north Friday night, which will allow winds to diminish this weekend as the gradient relaxes some. If the front lifts more slowly on Friday night into Saturday, the northern waters could still see SCA winds linger through portions of Saturday. There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches (including Ocean City, MD) today, with a low risk elsewhere. With increasing winds and seas associated with a frontal passage on Thursday, all beaches will see a moderate rip current risk. Increasing seas and lingering stronger winds in the wake of the front will produce a high rip risk at all beaches to end the week on Friday. && .CLIMATE... As of 950 PM EDT Tuesday... Tue 5/19: Richmond tied a record high min (71), and SBY also tied the record high min (70). No record high highs were set or tied. Another day of near-record to record- breaking heat is expected today, both for record highs and record high minimum temperatures. See below for reference. Record High Temps for Wed 5/20: Record High/Year Location 5/20 -------- ---- Richmond 97 (2022) Norfolk 98 (1996) Salisbury 98 (1911) Eliz. City 98 (1996) Record High Min Temps for Wed 5/20: Record High Min T/Year Location 5/20 -------- ---- Richmond 71 (2018) Norfolk 73 (1996) Salisbury 70 (2018) Eliz. City 73 (2018) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJB/MAM AVIATION...AC/MAM MARINE...ERI/NB CLIMATE...LKB/MAM  598 FXUS61 KOKX 201101 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 701 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated for 12Z Aviation. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A Heat Advisory remains in effect for NYC and northeast New Jersey as hot weather continues through this afternoon. 2) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, followed by lingering showers tonight into early Thursday. 3) Unsettled with periods of showers expected for the upcoming holiday weekend along with a much cooler airmass over the region. 4) Cold water safety concerns continue today with good boating weather early in the day, and water temperatures still in the 50s.s. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... No changes were made to the heat advisory for the NYC metro and NE NJ which remains in effect until 8pm. One last hot day is expected today as the region remains on the NW periphery of western Atlantic ridging. Temperatures should end up a few degrees lower compared to Tuesday in the warmest spots, but still will reach the low to potentially mid 90s in NE NJ and portions of the NYC metro away from the Atlantic coast. Elsewhere, highs will reach the mid to upper 80s except for 70s to low 80s closest to the coast. Followed the same trend as recent days and blended in some of MAV/MET guidance along with the 10th percentile of the NBM, since the NBM deterministic continues to run too hot. This is especially true for locations more impacted by a bit more onshore flow. Max heat indices will reach the mid 90s in the Advisory area and generally the upper 80s to low 90s for other locations away from the immediate coast. Temperatures and heat indices may drop significantly in the mid to late afternoon if showers and thunderstorms develop. There is a chance the Advisory will be cancelled sooner than 8pm if this scenario were to occur. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold front will move across the region this afternoon and evening. The front will serve as a mechanism to develop showers along with scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. SPC has continued to outline a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across the southern two-thirds of the region. A few of the storms may become severe with damaging wind gusts the main threat. Timing for the severe thunderstorm potential continues to be from 2pm-8pm. The latest CAMs are still offering varying coverage of convective development with some just showing isolated coverage with others scattered to a bit more numerous. The cold front will provide convergence along with falling heights aloft. Strong heating today should provide enough instability to promote convective development, first early this afternoon for the interior and then the rest of the area by mid to late afternoon. Lingering convection may still impact portions of the coast this evening as the front sags south across the area. While brief heavy downpours are possible in any shower or thunderstorm, quick storm motion will mitigate the potential for anything more than nuisance flooding. Showers will likely linger the first half of the night near the coast as the front works offshore. There may also be some redevelopment of showers late tonight into early Thursday morning as a weak wave of low pressure develops along the front. The low pressure is tied to a passing jet streak to our north, associated with a broad trough over Northern New England and southeast Canada. There is still some uncertainty with this feature as some of the model guidance keeps the showers just south of Long Island. Conditions should dry out Thursday afternoon, but lingering cloud cover may persist through much of the day. Best chance for some clearing looks to be well northwest of the NYC metro. Daytime temperatures on Thursday will only be in the 60s, 20-30 degrees cooler than Wednesday. .KEY MESSAGE 3... The end of the week will remain dry and much cooler. The dry period will be short-lived as unsettled weather with periods of showers looks likely for the upcoming holiday weekend. The frontal boundary that moves through today/Wednesday will remain to our south with multiple disturbances/waves of low pressure moving along it through the weekend. Moisture from these systems will overrun high pressure to our north and east. The main challenge for this period is timing when the most widespread shower activity will occur. The highest probabilities currently are from late Friday through early Sunday. However, there is still some uncertainty, especially if the surface ridging from the high is stronger. This would help suppress the showers a bit further south, with at least the northern half of the region seeing less rainfall. Chances for showers continue late Sunday into Memorial Day as additional energy may pass to west or northwest. Otherwise, will remain mostly cloudy through the weekend with temperatures likely running below normal for late May in the low to mid 60s. Nighttime temperatures should be in the 50s. The frontal boundary may get pushed further south by next Tuesday, which could help lower any chance for showers. .KEY MESSAGE 4... One last day of cold water safety concerns due to another day of hot air temperatures. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cold frontal passage occurs this aftn and eve. High pres builds N of the area on Thu. Mainly VFR conditions are expected through 16-18Z. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop after 16Z, with the best chance from 20-00Z. Kept TSRA chances in a PROB30 at this time as confidence in the coverage of TSRA remains uncertain. If a thunderstorm does occur, it could be strong to severe with brief strong gusty winds up to possibly 40 to 50 kt. MVFR or lower conditions possible in any TSRA. Aft the fropa, CIGS lower to around 4000ft overnight with the potential for additional shwrs. Confidence in shwrs is low so they have not been included in the TAFs. CIGS likely lower further on Thu to MVFR. WSW winds this mrng, with some variability early, becoming NW this afternoon and evening aft the fropa. The flow veers further to the NE aft 8-9Z Thu. Wind speeds generally around 10-15 kt much of the TAF period with gusts to near 20 kt this afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Some variability in wind direction possible thru 14Z due to lgt flow, especially JFK where sea breeze flow near 180 true is possible. Amendments possible to refine timing/coverage of showers and tstms today. MVFR CIGS possible aft 00Z Thu, but the probability was too low to include in the TAFs attm. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Thursday: MVFR or lower conditions possible early for coastal terminals and NYC terminals at times with a chance of showers. Mainly VFR thereafter. Friday: Possible showers and MVFR conditions. Chances of showers increase late day into night. Showers become likely at night. Saturday: MVFR or lower with showers. E-NE wind gusts 15-20 kt. Sunday: MVFR or lower with chances of showers. NE wind gusts 15-20 kt during the day. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on the ocean waters through early this evening. Winds will likely be marginal and overall below 25 kt, but there still may be a few gusts nearshore around 25 kt. Seas should build to 5-6 ft, especially east of Fire Island Inlet. 5 ft seas could linger east of Moriches Inlet into the evening, so have extended the SCA for these waters until 11 pm. In addition to the elevated seas and marginally gusty winds, a cold frontal passage late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening will bring with it the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms with gusts in excess of 35 kt. Conditions tonight through Friday are expected to remain below SCA levels with a cold front south of the waters. The next chance for SCA conditions will be this weekend as several waves of low pressure pass along the cold front to our south. One last day of cold water safety concerns due to another day of hot air temperatures. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 20: KEWR: 72/1996 KBDR: 61/2019 KNYC: 74/1996 KLGA: 77/1996 KJFK: 63/1996 KISP: 62/1996 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ072>075-176- 178. NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ353- 355. && $$ DISCUSSION...DS AVIATION...JMC/MW MARINE...DS  508 FXUS63 KDVN 201100 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 600 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - After a cooler than normal second half of the week, rain chances will be on the increase just before the weekend. - A pattern change over the weekend will bring warmer than normal temperatures to the area next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Today: High pressure across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region will bring dry and seasonably cool conditions to the area with highs in the low to mid 60s. Light NE winds are expected through the day mainly under 15 mph. It will be cool again tonight with lows in the low to mid 40s for much of the area. Thursday: As the high pressure system begins to shift more into the eastern Great Lakes region, easterly winds will increase locally (gusting around 20 mph) and act to hold the dry air in place with dewpoints remaining in the 40s. Forecast highs are only a touch warmer in the mid/upper 60s. Due to the dry low- levels, most of the day should be dry with only low chances for spotty light rain/sprinkles across the west (10-15%). Increasing moisture advection aloft at night will result in better chances for rain late (20-50%), especially across the south/southwest outlook area. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Thursday night through Friday night Assessment...high (>80%) confidence of a storm system. Low to medium (20-40%) confidence on rainfall. The second half of the work week will be characterized by cooler than normal temperatures. The global models have a storm system forecast to impact the Midwest late in the week but there are timing differences. Interestingly, most ensemble members of the global models take the main surface low east of the Mississippi which raises questions regarding the overall rainfall potential for the area. Based on the overall large scale picture, the various global models are indicating Friday morning and afternoon as being the most likely time period for any rain to occur. Here the model consensus has a 50-80% chance of rain. Rain would then linger into Friday evening before ending. Overall rainfall amounts will be variable; some locations will see under 0.25 inches of rain while some may see close to a half inch. Sunday through Tuesday Assessment...a certainty (>95%) of warmer than normal temperatures The holiday weekend will be mainly dry although a rogue diurnal shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Starting Sunday the pattern change will be noticeable as temperatures trend above normal and are then expected to remain above normal next week. All models show an upper level ridge building along the east coast which will place the Midwest in southwest flow aloft. Humidity levels will be on the increase with dew points raising initially into the upper 50s and lower 60s; tolerable for all but the most sensitive people. Starting Tuesday, humidity levels will be much more noticeable and uncomfortable as dew points climb into the mid 60s. The increased moisture combined with the very warm temperatures and a passing upper level disturbance is expected to result in mainly diurnal convection Tuesday afternoon and evening. Right now the model consensus has rain chances at 15 to 25 percent. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 555 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 High pressure will ensure a VFR TAF cycle through Thursday morning. Generally light north to northeasterly sfc winds of 5-10 KTs backing more to the east later tonight. Some ambient cumulus development today but should not be higher than SCTRD coverage and bases above 3K FT AGL. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...08/Uttech AVIATION...12  629 FXUS64 KOHX 201101 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 601 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 559 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Medium to high rain chances continue each day through the forecast period. - Rainfall totals of 2+ inches through the weekend, with some localized high amounts possible. Some minor flooding concerns. - Temperatures near seasonal norms through the next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 958 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front will continue to slowly sag SE across Middle TN on Wednesday. This will maintain high rain and storm chances across the area, with the best coverage and intensity expected during the afternoon and evening as diurnal heating combines with ample low- level moisture (PWATs remain near or above 1.5 inches). While instability will be modest behind the initial front passage, shear is weak and any training or slow-moving storms could produce locally heavy rainfall. Highest probs for showers and storms will shift south of I-40 on Thursday as the front stalls across northern MS/AL. Scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorms will remain likely, especially south of I-40. Rain totals through Thursday night could add another 0.5 to 1.5 inches for many locations, contributing to the broader wet pattern. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler than recent days, with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s. No significant severe weather is expected during this time, though brief gusty winds and small hail are possible with the stronger storms. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 958 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The stalled frontal boundary to our south, combined with an upper-level troughing pattern across the eastern CONUS, will keep and active weather pattern in place through early next week. Multiple shortwave disturbances riding along the front will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon and evenings. Rain chances remain medium to high each day. Forecast rainfall through the weekend and into early next week continue to support high probabilities for at least 2 inches across much of Middle TN. Some areas could see 3+ inches, especially if training storms develop. This will bring some drought relief. On the flip side, there will be some concern for minor flash flooding in urban and poor drainage areas. Temperatures will remain near normal, with daytime highs in the upper 70s to low/mid 80s and overnight low in the mid to upper 60s. Beyond the weekend, model agreement decreases but the overall pattern favors continued unsettled conditions with daily rain chances into mid next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 559 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Coverage of showers and storms will increase from west to east as a frontal zone settles over the area. Before the rain and storms, VFR will prevail. Variable cig/vsby conditions will accompany storms with localized heavy downpours and gusty winds.Low confidence on specific timing of showers and storms. Later in the period, after 21Z, conditions will trend downward to IFR cigs. Winds will be generally light through the period. Directions will be variable but mainly southwest through 21Z, then mainly north northwest. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 82 63 80 64 / 100 80 50 80 Clarksville 77 61 78 63 / 90 50 30 80 Crossville 82 61 77 61 / 80 60 80 70 Columbia 82 62 81 64 / 90 70 60 80 Cookeville 82 62 77 63 / 100 70 70 80 Jamestown 83 60 77 61 / 90 70 80 70 Lawrenceburg 81 63 80 64 / 90 70 70 80 Murfreesboro 84 63 81 64 / 90 80 60 80 Waverly78 62 79 64 / 100 60 40 80 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cravens LONG TERM....Cravens AVIATION.....13  676 FXUS61 KBTV 201102 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 702 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday... No significant changes were made to the forecast. Breezes remain today as a cold front moves through the region bringing sharply cooler conditions for the end of the week. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday... 1. Temperatures trend lower today but remain 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages for many locations before trending sharply cooler for Thursday. Some locations outside the Champlain Valley may experience some frost Thursday night. 2. Breezy winds continue today and tonight as a front sweeps through the region bringing some chances of showers as well. 3. Chances for showers continue at times early next week while temperatures trend a bit warmer. && .DISCUSSION... As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler today than yesterday, but remain 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages. Warmest spots will be in southern Vermont where there will be potential for more heating ahead of the boundary. Highs in the 70s are forecast with low 80s for southern Vermont locations. Northwest flow will dominate behind the front bringing sharply cooler temperatures for Thursday and Friday with highs likely in the mid/upper 50s to around 60 degrees , then 60s respectively. This will be around 10 degrees below seasonal averages on Thursday before trending back to near normal by Friday. Temperatures continue to moderate over the weekend back to around seasonal averages with highs near 70 degrees for the Champlain Valley. Thursday night, high pressure is favored to be overhead with temperatures likely falling below 40 degrees in the Adirondacks and across northeastern Vermont. With a very dry airmass over the region, frost potential will rise. KEY MESSAGE 2: Winds will be breezy today with flow turning northwest behind a cold front. Gusts will likely range 20 to 25 mph for most locations with up to 30 mph for typically windier locations like the Hwy 11 corridor in northern New York and along Lake Champlain. A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for the broad portion of Lake Champlain. Gusts will likely linger over Lake Champlain tonight before decreasing Thursday with high pressure moving overhead. Showers chances will continue this morning and remain possible along the front as it swings through today, but amounts will generally be light and less than 0.1". KEY MESSAGE 3: There remains some notable spread in potential for showers both on Sunday and Monday. Generally the 00Z guidance has shifted chances for rain slightly, such that Sunday is more likely to be dry and Monday more likely to be showery as an upper level ridge departs and a weak low pressure area slides across our region. The potential for rain on Sunday is higher early in the day, tied to a band of mid-level frontogenesis lifting northeastward across our region. Therefore, midday onward conditions should trend dry. That being said, it remains very possible that precipitation is spotty or non-existant given the potential that the ridge of high pressure in place causes precipitation to be mainly virga. It also appears rain on Monday (Memorial Day) is favored for the morning, although again the model spread is high enough to expect this forecast to change. Therefore, keep abreast of the forecast if you have holiday plans; it will probably not be an all day rain with a progressive westerly upper level pattern and lack of a stationary boundary. All in all, while rain could impact outdoor activities somewhat, thunder chances are minimal through this period. Precipitation will probably not be hydrologically significant with rainfall amounts mainly ranging from about 0.1" (reasonable low amount) to 1" (reasonable high amount) before we move back into a drier pattern. With chances for showers decreasing moving into Tuesday, temperatures will tend to rise above normal, currently forecast to reach the low to mid 70s following a couple of days with highs mainly in the 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 12Z Thursday...VFR conditions prevail this morning except for temporary MVFR ceilings at MSS and MVFR ceilings prevailing at SLK for another few hours before improving. Very spotty showers are expected this morning, especially in Vermont; have maintained prob 30 at RUT and EFK where chances for a shower are relatively high. A diffuse cold front is moving through uneventfully through 15Z, with southwesterly winds expected to turn westerly and then northwesterly through the remainder of the day with gusts of about 20 to 25 knots. Winds will then shift northerly towards 00Z, and gusts should continue at sites like BTV and MPV through the remainder of the period with continued cold air advection. Outlook... Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday... A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Broad Waters of Lake Champlain. Gradient winds are expected to come up after sunrise bringing more consistent northwesterly gusts around 25kts over the broad waters. As a result, have opted to keep the Lake Wind Advisory going despite the respite in wind gusts. Tonight, flow turns more northerly and aligns with the major axis of Lake Champlain favoring increased gusts up to 30kts and waves building towards the southern shores. Much lighter winds are expected Thursday with high pressure building over the region. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd DISCUSSION...Boyd/Kutikoff AVIATION...Kutikoff MARINE...Boyd  730 FXUS63 KOAX 201103 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 603 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler weather continues with the potential for morning frost for northeast Nebraska on Wednesday. - Shower/thunderstorm chances return Wednesday night into Thursday continuing on/off through Friday. - Trend back toward warmer temperatures over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Surface high pressure was building in late this evening with clouds slowly, but surely starting to clear out of the area. Winds will also become quite light as the high passes over, setting up what looks to be a chilly night. Latest guidance suggests fairly widespread 30s, with portions of northeast NE and west-central IA dipping into the lower to mid 30s. Expect frost development in much of this area with potential for a few spots getting below freezing. A Frost Advisory remains in effect through 8 AM. The surface high will push to our east through the day on Wednesday as some weak shortwave energy currently over the Desert Southwest ejects eastward toward the area. This will lead to increasing cloud cover and perhaps a few sprinkles or showers in portions of northeast NE, but they likely won't amount to much more than a few hundredths of an inch. Otherwise, temperatures remain on the cooler side, with highs in the lower to mid 60s. Another bit of shortwave energy will slide through southern portions of the forecast area late Wednesday night into Thursday. Guidance is in better agreement that we see some showers and perhaps an isolated storm with this, mainly near and south of I-80 (30-50% chance). Meanwhile, a trough will be digging into the western CONUS out of Canada and eventually push east into the forecast area late Thursday night into Friday. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that we'll see widespread rainfall with this system on Friday (60-80% chance), but still some differences on exact track and resulting rainfall amounts. Consensus currently suggests most places see a few tenths at most. Warmer, drier air will move in behind this system as it departs on Saturday, allowing temperatures to climb back into the upper 60s to lower 70s. We'll warm further on Sunday and Monday as the trough axis pushes to our northeast and ridging starts to build in. Expect upper 70s to mid 80s Sunday followed by widespread 80s Monday into next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 601 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions are still expected to hold for the next 24 hours, with shallow fog near the KOMA terminal that will last for an hour before dissipating. Winds are very light and generally out of the north, but will become increasingly easterly, then eventually southeasterly towards the end of the TAF period at less than 10 kts. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>044. IA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for IAZ043. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...Petersen  738 FXUS63 KUNR 201103 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 503 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Cool and unsettled through Friday, warming up after -Good chance of showers Thur into Fri as an upper trough moves through the region && .UPDATE... Issued at 950 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Departing SFC high will support another cool night as clear skies work with light winds and dry air in place. Frost is not expected to be very widespread tonight outside of northeast WY, being mainly confined to low lying areas and valleys. Upper trough will move east across the Rockies Wed, with the lee-side trough pushing into the FA. Increasing LL moisture per SE flow and an impulse to the south will be enough to support a few isolated showers and TS across mainly western SD in the afternoon. Broad brushed 20 pops across most of that area, with slightly higher numbers over the northern Black Hills. Main upper trough will move into the region Thur with the stalled sfc trough running N-S across the FA, INVOF of the SD/WY line. Conditional instability combined with height falls and sufficient moisture will allow for diurnal convection, initiating along the trough and the Black Hills. Convection will likely wane Thur night with additional showers Friday as the upper trough moves over the region and diurnal heating occurs. Adjusted pops accordingly. Otherwise, warmer and drier weather is on track this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 125 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Current upper air models show the upper trough axis east of the forecast area this afternoon, with west northwest flow over the region. 19Z surface analysis depicts high pressure over Wyoming, weak surface trough over central MT. Satellite shows widespread CU across the forecast area, with little vertical extent. Temperatures currently sit in the 40s to mid 50s with light winds predominantly out of the northwest. Brief shortwave ridge settles in Wednesday into Thursday, prompting a slow warming trend with mostly dry conditions. Weak surface trough in MT passes through Wednesday. This forcing may spark some isolated to showers/storms but no significant QPF is expected through the first half of Thursday. As ridge shifts eastward, troughing once again slides across the Rockies and into the northern and central plains. Synoptic forcing will prompt widespread precipitation the latter half of Thursday into Friday. Current NBM probabilities for precip >= 0.25" has a wide swath of 60 to 80 percent over most of western SD, excluding far northwestern SD. Based off the current track of this system, highest QPF amounts are expected in the Black Hills and southwestern SD Precipitation is expected to taper off from west to east later Friday, and upper ridge slowly builds over the weekend. Expect highs to jump into the 70s and 80s by Saturday, and stick around through the forecast period. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Thursday Morning) Issued At 501 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions expected through most the forecast period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across portions of western SD into south-central SD where transient MVFR conditions are possible. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for SDZ002- 012>014-027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-073-075>078. WY...Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT this morning for WYZ055-056- 058>060. && $$ UPDATE...JC DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye AVIATION...SE  855 FXUS62 KRAH 201106 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 706 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Highs Thu continue to trend warmer, due to a slightly slower backdoor front. * Latest NBM still looks too warm for Fri highs in the NW/Triad, so have held highs on the low side of guidance. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 155 AM Wednesday... 1) Continued very hot today, and Thu now looks almost as warm for much of the area. 2) We'll enter a wet pattern starting Thu afternoon, with above normal rain chances expected into the middle of next week. A wedge setup will lead to cooler temps Fri, particularly in the Piedmont. && .DISCUSSION... As of 155 AM Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Continued very hot today, and Thu now looks almost as warm for much of the area. We'll see at least one more day of hot temperatures today, as persistence rules, given little to no change in the overall pattern. Confidence remains quite high that we'll see continued anomalously hot weather, as strong ridging near the surface through the mid levels persists, including 500 mb heights and 850 mb temps in the 95th-99th percentile according to the HREF. Low level thicknesses hold around 20 m above normal today, favoring highs once again in the low-mid 90s, with isolated upper 90s. We'll still see a lowering of dewpoints with deep mixing, such that apparent temps will hold under 100F, however the Heat Risk will again be at level 2 of 4 (Moderate), with isolated patches of level 3 of 4 (High), indicating highly anomalous heat that could lead to heat illnesses, especially for more sensitive or vulnerable populations. And the intense sunshine and a generally light breeze will again elevate the WBGT index. As such, in addition to frequent water breaks, spending time resting in the shade is encouraged, especially for those working or exercising outdoors. We still expect a backdoor front to approach our northern border Thu, however the models continue a gradual slowing trend, with the front making slow progress through our northern tier of counties during the mid to late afternoon. This will allow much of the area S of the front (including areas along and S of Hwy 64) to heat up, given the still-high low level thicknesses near 15 m above normal, although the development of convective clouds in the afternoon (along with late-day showers and a few storms) should keep temps under today's highs. Expect highs from the low-mid 80s near the VA border ranging to the low 90s in our far S. KEY MESSAGE 2... We'll enter a wet pattern starting Thu afternoon, with above normal rain chances expected into the middle of next week. A wedge setup will lead to cooler temps Fri, particularly in the Piedmont. First, regarding temps Fri, the front will settle along the southern and eastern edges of the CWA Thu night, with cool high pressure nosing in from the north as its center shifts from the N Great Lakes across New England and just off the Northeast coast. This source high is fairly strong, ~1035 mb over SE Quebec by late Fri night, with current surface dewpoints in the 40s at its core. And it will be briefly anchored by confluent flow followed by a building narrow ridge aloft, which will favor a CAD event with wedging down through the Piedmont Fri. Have leaned closer to the NBM10Pct and mean statistical guidance for Fri highs across the N and W Piedmont, yielding highs in the upper 60s to around 70 from INT/GSO to TDF/HNZ, mid-upper 70s from Albemarle through the Triangle region to Rocky Mount, and low-mid 80s across the SE CWA. Temps might need to be tweaked downward in our far NW on Sat and even Sun as well, if models continue to indicate a stubborn cool/stable pool lingering over the Piedmont. Regarding rain chances, while the details remain murky, we're confident that we're entering a wet spell with fairly high rain chances overall for several days, although not every spot will see rain each day. Showers and scattered storms are expected to develop along the front across the N starting Thu afternoon, then this precip should settle south with the front through Thu night. The breakdown of our current mid level ridge will allow for an increasingly weakly-perturbed mid level SW flow from N Mexico across TX and the Mid South across NC, providing shots of mid level DPVA acting on PW values of 125-200% of normal, along with persistent deep low level moist isentropic upglide at 295-305K sourced from both the Gulf and Atlantic. At the surface, the front will eventually lift north (perhaps delayed by a lingering stable pool in the Triad), placing us in a warm sector in flow from the S and SW for multiple days. Locally briefly heavy rain totals are possible especially late Thu into Thu night, as strengthening SW 850 mb flow and increasing ascent along the front could lead to isolated heavier rain and propagating cells on the SW side of convection. The overall CAPE and deep layer bulk shear will be on the low end through this weekend, thus no severe weather is expected. With this persistent long and wavy SW flow from N Mexico into the Carolinas combined with high low-level moisture flux from the Gulf and Atlantic through the weekend and into early next week, our rain chances are expected to remain above normal, peaking each afternoon and evening Fri through at least Tue. While this would put a damper on the long holiday weekend, it would be a welcome respite from our ongoing drought conditions. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 705 AM Wednesday... VFR conditions are generally expected across central NC over the 24 hour TAF period. VFR conditions are generally expected across central NC over the 24 hour TAF period. There are several reports of MVFR visibilities from fog/mist and a couple reports of LIFR ceilings across parts of the Sandhills and central/southern Coastal Plain, including at KFAY. But this threat will quickly end within the next hour. Otherwise, skies will be mostly clear today with S/SW winds in the 5-10 kt range. Mid and high clouds will begin to move in tonight, which could limit any fog potential, but it still can't be totally ruled out in the SE. Outlook: Flight restrictions will return on Thursday as a cold front brings the next chance for showers and thunderstorms along with gusty NE winds to the region. Sub-VFR ceilings also look to persist into Friday in the Triad and potentially RDU as a CAD regime looks to set up over the region. Daily shower/storm chances will also be possible through the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 20: KGSO: 95/1917 KRDU: 96/2022 KFAY: 99/2022 May 21: KRDU: 96/1941 KFAY: 99/1941 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 20: KGSO: 68/2022 KRDU: 69/2019 KFAY: 71/2022 May 21: KGSO: 67/2022 KRDU: 71/1898 KFAY: 71/2025 May 22: KFAY: 73/2004 May 23: KFAY: 72/2011 May 24: KRDU: 70/2011 KFAY: 72/2000 May 25: KGSO: 70/2019 KRDU: 71/2019 KFAY: 71/2019 May 26: KGSO: 70/2019 KRDU: 73/2011 KFAY: 75/2004 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hartfield AVIATION...Danco/Helock CLIMATE...RAH  841 FXUS64 KLUB 201105 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 605 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 537 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Overcast and some fog returns Wednesday, with chances for showers and thunderstorms arriving late Wednesday morning. - Brief, heavy rainfall will be common with storms Wednesday, with hail up to quarter size possible. - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue through this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1046 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 01Z upper air analysis depicts a large-scale, positively-tilted trough over the Intermountain West, with an ill-defined vorticity lobe evident on recent water-vapor imagery that was ejecting northeastward over Baja Sur and into northern Mexico. A disheveled and expansive baroclinic leaf is present, as it has been stretched out while rounding the base of the trough is it begins to become absorbed into the right-entrance region to a 250 mb jet streak that was objectively analyzed at 95 kt per the 20/00Z UA charts. Broadly cyclonic flow will be maintained over the CWA throughout the course of the short-term period, with the right-entrance region to the mid- and high-level jet streaks translating eastward and over W TX by Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, a subtle shortwave trough embedded within the larger-scale flow has resulted in thunderstorms far to the south of the CWA, with thick anvil debris advecting poleward over the Rolling Plains and eclipsing the Caprock. Low-level clouds have since mixed out on the Caprock, but with northeasterly flow persisting at 850 mb, low stratus remains dammed over the Rolling Plains per METAR data at CDS and VUF. Occasional breaks in the anvil debris field have also revealed the extent of the stratus deck. Fog is forecast to develop across portions of the Rolling Plains, and perhaps the Caprock, Wednesday morning as the lower boundary-layer nears its saturation point during the predawn hours. At the surface, the cold front that crossed through the CWA earlier this morning has stalled across the southern portion of the Edwards Plateau, and bends northwestward into the TX Big Bend and beyond into the southern Rocky Mountains. A lee cyclone was analyzed near the Sierra del Carmen, with WTM data observing the northern periphery of the low; and the quasi-stationary/slow-moving cold front then branches eastward into the Llano Uplift before bending northward towards central N TX. This front is expected to remain anchored across that corridor for the next 24 hours, which will maintain the upslope/easterly flow across the CWA tonight into Wednesday. However, the western periphery of the stalled front will serve as an impetus for the initiation of clusters of showers and thunderstorms by late Wednesday morning for portions of the CWA. The vorticity lobe analyzed over Baja Sur will emerge over the TX Big Bend and eastern NM near sunrise Wednesday, with the anomaly becoming stretched and elongated as it ejects over the CWA. This will occur in conjuction with the right-entrance region of the 250 mb jet streak translating over W TX, facilitating a net increase in high-level divergence and subtle geopotential height falls atop the stable, post-frontal airmass. Elevated, fast-moving clusters of showers and storms are forecast to develop by late Wednesday morning and into the early afternoon hours as the PV anomaly ejects over the CWA. The subtle geopotential height falls and backing of deep-layer flow aloft towards the southwest will advect the EML observed by the 20/00Z RAOBs from MAF and MMCU over the CWA, with MUCAPE values increasing to 1,000-1,500 J/kg atop the stable and near-saturated boundary-layer. Modest effective shear magnitudes near 30 kt and somewhat elongated hodographs in the mid/upper-levels will yield the potential for weak, mid-level mesocyclones to develop within the elevated storms; and with parcel trajectories rooted above the stable airmass, hail up to quarter size will be the predominant severe-related hazard with storms Wednesday. Brief, heavy rainfall will be common with storms otherwise, although the quick progression of storms will curtail the potential for flash flooding. The dense overcast will restrict diabatic heating, with highs forecast to struggle to breach 70 degrees across most of the CWA, especially as the upslope flow is maintained through most of the day. Storm chances will wane by the evening, with cool and damp conditions expected overnight into Thursday along with the potential for fog. Sincavage && .LONG TERM... (Thursday morning through next Tuesday) Issued at 1046 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Large-scale troughing will persist across the western U.S. Thursday, with a compact, shortwave trough forecast to dig into the Mosquito and Sawatch Ranges. Broadly cyclonic flow will be maintained over the CWA, albeit a dearth in magnitude as it becomes subgeostrophic between the base of the shortwave trough to the north-northwest of the CWA and the quasi-zonal, subtropical jet streak nosing into the Sierra Madre Occidental. Another small-scale, shortwave trough is forecast to eject into western TX Thursday, with the boundary-layer becoming weakly capped as low-level stratus erodes. Temperatures are forecast to be 5-7 degrees warmer than Wednesday, but with minimal MLCINH forecast as warmer theta-e air advects into the CWA as a weak, low-level jet near 25 kt backs towards the southeast by late Thursday afternoon, clusters of storms are forecast to develop and move towards the east-northeast across the CWA Thursday afternoon and evening. Isolated instances of marginally-severe hail will be possible given a slight uptick in effective shear magnitudes to around 35 kt amidst the maintained EML. NBM PoPs have been adjusted accordingly to reflect the best timing. Isolated storm chances are forecast to continue for portions of the Rolling Plains by Friday, with area-wide chances into the weekend. The large-scale troughing is forecast to attenuate and split into lower-amplitude shortwave troughs, with the southern-stream shortwave trough arriving by this weekend. Warmer temperatures will follow, with the best storm chances appearing to be east of the I-27 corridor Friday and into the weekend. Some storms may be strong-to-severe, but mesoscale details remain nebulous with this prognostication. Additional storm chances may arrive early next week, but predictability is limited. Sincavage && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 537 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 MVFR CIGs are expected to lower to IFR at PVW and LBB shortly after 12Z along with a reduction in VIS to low VFR/MVFR. Convection will be possible at LBB and PVW between 18Z-00Z. Some storms could be strong to severe and produce wind gust up to 50 knots and hail up to one inch in diameter. While it is possible for these storms to reach CDS by 00Z, confidence is too low for a mention in the TAF at this time. IFR CIGs will move back over the terminals after 06Z tonight. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...51  313 FXUS61 KBOX 201110 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 710 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Signs of potentially salvaging at least one dry weekend day, but uncertainty remains high. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Final day of record warmth today with highs in the 90s away from the immediate coast. Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms by the afternoon with a risk for damaging winds and some hail. - Cooler temperatures through Memorial Day Weekend. Unsettled weather returns for the weekend with periods of rain possible, but confidence is low. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Final day of record warmth today with highs in the 90s away from the immediate coast. Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms by the afternoon with a risk for damaging winds and some hail. One more day with near record temperatures on tap before a drastic return to your regularly scheduled May weather. The Heat Advisory remains in effect as we see an anomolously warm airmass remaining overhead, even as the upper level ridge begins to break down. Expecting a mix of sun and diurnal clouds, with westerly downslope flow once again contributing to temp maxima in the CT and Merrimack valleys. Again, will have to go to the immediate south coast to escape the heat but a slight shift in wind direction may bring those hot temps closer to the shore than on Tuesday. Relief then arrives behind a cold front which is dragged through the region from west to east between late morning and this evening. This warm and moist airmass (dewpoints climb into the mid 60s) produces a decent amount of instability, albeit a bit less than Tuesday, around 1,000 J/kg while model soundings show very steep low level lapse rates (8.5 C/km). Convergence ahead of the cold front will act on this airmass to produce a broken line of relatively shallow thunderstorms, limited in depth and organization by poor ML lapse rates and marginal 0-6 km bulk shear respectively. Unlike Tuesday's more northward severe risk, the best instability and resultant t-storm chance looks to be south of the MA pike where some damage wind gusts would be the main risk. KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler temperatures through Memorial Day Weekend. Unsettled weather returns for the weekend with periods of rain possible, but confidence is low. High pressure slowly builds in on Thursday into Friday suppressing any rainfall to the south; some guidance wants to keep rain close enough to the southern periphery to brush the south coast with rain showers the first half of Thursday. Ensemble guidance is a bit more bullish on measurable rainfall Thursday morning than the current forecast, so that may end up needing to be bumped up in the future. Looking to the holiday weekend, as discussed last night the AI guidance continues to be dry, with a stronger high suppressing unsettled weather just to the south over the mid Atlantic while the traditional models are wetter and colder. That being said, the GFS continues to also suppress the rain south until Monday while the ECMWF has at least slowed the arrival, to perhaps salvage Saturday. That being said, ensemble guidance doesn't seem to have caught on to any drying ideas, still bullish on rain both days (both the GEFS and EPS). The main idea is, there remains a great deal of uncertainty with regard to the holiday weekend, but still leaning the forecast on a wetter and cooler (50s and low 60s) solution. Temperature-wise, after a seasonable Thu/Fri in the upper 60s/low 70s the weekend is looking like it may be colder than normal for late May. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12Z TAFUpdate... Wednesday...Moderate confidence (TSRA chances). VFR. Scattered TSRA along and ahead of a cold front in the afternoon and evening. Given widely scattered nature and uncertainty in location of TSRA, have included PROB30 groups for terminals PVD south, and again for ACK with possible visby drop overnight under -SHRA. WSW winds 8-12 kts with gusts 20-25 kts turning NW behind the cold front between 16-00Z. Brief strong gusts possible in any thunderstorms. Wednesday night...Moderate confidence. VFR. Some SHRA may linger/expand over southern terminals overnight into Thursday morning. Light NW winds becoming N/NE. Thursday...High confidence. VFR. Light winds. KBOS...High confidence in TAF. KBDL...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Wednesday: High confidence. Small craft advisories remain in effect through 06z Thurs. SW winds of 15-25 kt continues this afternoon and overnight Seas will also be building to around 4-6 ft, with some 7 footers possible tonight over the southern waters. Mainly dry weather prevails through tonight with a few showers or thunderstorms possible for the northern waters., Some fog may persist and expand across the southern waters tonight on increasing southwest winds. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Rain showers likely. Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers. && .CLIMATE... Record Highs for Wed May 20... BOS 91/1996 BDL 99/1996 PVD 95/1996 ORH 91/1903 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ002>004. MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ003>007- 010>019-026. RI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for RIZ001>004. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ254>256. && $$ DISCUSSION...BW AVIATION...BW/McMinn MARINE...BW CLIMATE...BW  188 FXUS62 KMFL 201110 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 710 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 708 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 - High risk of rip currents along the east coast of South Florida will continue through this evening. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly across SW Florida again today. Frequent lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy downpours are the main threats. - Widespread Moderate HeatRisk for all urban areas through the end of the week. Heat indices in the upper 90s and lower 100s. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 The pattern will remain generally unchanged through the short term period, with an upper level ridge extending across the Gulf and over the peninsula and an upper level low meandering over the western Atlantic waters. Near the surface, an area of high pressure will remain in place over the western Atlantic waters, extending over the peninsula. This setup will help promote robust easterly flow across South Florida during this period, while also maintaining some moisture advection near the surface. However, overnight observations from the 00Z MFL sounding and ACARS flights at KMIA show a pocket of drier air intruding near the mid-levels. Water vapor imagery suggests this is dry air being pulled southward along the western periphery of the upper level low currently east of the Bahamas, and model guidance supports a continuation of this phenomenon at least through Thursday. In fact, most modeled PWATs within the ensemble guidance envelope are trending below average for this time of year, really highlighting the shift from conditions earlier in the week. With prevailing easterly flow and some low-level moisture still in place, chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain on the forecast each day, especially along the sea breeze boundaries over interior/southwest FL each afternoon. However, with drier air aloft and weak forcing and steering, any activity that develops should be transient and sub-severe in nature, with occasional lightning and some gusty winds the main impacts. Some spots could get half an inch to an inch of rain, but otherwise the risk of localized flooding remains low at this time. Temperatures each day will continue to rise into the upper 80s (along the East Coast) and up into the mid 90s (across southwest FL), with heat indices peaking in the mid 90s across the East Coast, and up into the triple digits across southwest FL. Warm overnight temperatures, especially across the East Coast, will impede much in the way of relief, especially for any vulnerable communities. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 156 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the weather pattern aloft across the southeast CONUS through the end of the week. The upper low over the western Atlantic will begin to dissolve and high pressure ridging over the Gulf will shift eastward over the Florida peninsula. Pressure heights will increase slightly across the region heading into next week, with a new H5 centroid positioning itself over north Florida by Sunday afternoon. Pressure heights will generally be in the 588 dm to 592 dm range through the period, which are within the upper quartile for this time of year. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic will keep the easterly wind regime through the middle of next week. This pattern will continue to advect some waves of higher moisture, where PWATs may climb up to 1.8 inches. But for the most part, precipitable water content will generally remain about average at 1.4 to 1.5 inches. Models are not showing as clear cut of a middle dry layer, but ridging aloft should contribute to some mid-level subsidence and suppression of stronger storm activity. Overall, with easterly flow prevailing, the highest chances for afternoon storm activity will focus along the Gulf breeze over interior and southwest Florida each afternoon. Temperatures will trend slightly higher for the weekend and towards the beginning of next week. Maximum temperatures will range from the upper 80s along the Atlantic coast to the mid 90s in southwest Florida. Heat indices will climb into the mid 100s for parts of Collier and Monroe counties. At this time, Heat Advisories look unlikely, but the NWS Prototype Probabilistic HeatRisk tool continues to show increased chances (40% to 50%) of Major HeatRisk. These conditions will affect anyone without proper hydration or cooling. Some guidance is also showing that overnight lows may stay quite warm across the east coast metros, with temperatures only dropping to upper 70s and low 80s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 708 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Isolated SHRA will continue along the east coast of South Florida this morning before SHRA/TSRA activity increases in coverage and shifts over to the western half of the peninsula this afternoon and evening. Light east-southeasterly flow will enhance out of a breezy southeasterly direction at all east coast terminals while veering onshore (southwesterly) at KAPF later this afternoon. TEMPOs for KAPF may be needed with additional TAF updates. && .MARINE... Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Generally benign boating conditions will prevail as alight to moderate easterly breeze persists across the local waters. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible each day, but will favor the Gulf waters under this easterly wind regime. Gustier winds and rough seas are possible in and around thunderstorm activity. && .BEACHES... Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Strong onshore flow will continue to promote a high risk of rip currents across the Atlantic coastline through this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 88 78 89 79 / 20 0 20 10 West Kendall 89 74 90 75 / 20 10 20 10 Opa-Locka 89 77 90 78 / 20 0 20 10 Homestead 88 77 89 78 / 20 10 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 86 78 87 79 / 20 10 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 86 78 87 79 / 10 10 20 10 Pembroke Pines 90 78 91 79 / 20 0 20 10 West Palm Beach 86 78 87 79 / 10 10 20 10 Boca Raton 86 79 87 80 / 10 10 20 10 Naples 90 74 91 76 / 60 30 40 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....NMP AVIATION...Hadi  176 FXUS63 KDLH 201110 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 610 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Freeze Warning has been issued for tonight for areas from Duluth to Brainerd on north, where temperatures will drop into the lower 30s and threaten sensitive vegetation. A Frost Advisory has been issued for areas to the south. - Cool temps continue through midweek with a warming trend into the weekend. - Near-critical fire weather conditions may develop on Thursday due to relative humidity dropping to 25 percent and gusty south winds up to 20 mph. && .UPDATE... Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 For the overnight hours and early this morning, a blanket of cloud cover is helping to moderate our temperatures. Because of this, temperatures will not get quite as low as previously forecast. However, despite this slight moderation, most areas within the current headlines will still see those frost and freeze conditions. Make sure tender plants and sensitive vegetation remain protected through the early morning hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 For the rest of this afternoon, chilly and cloudy conditions will persist across the Northland with scattered rain showers/sprinkles. Temperatures tonight will highly depend on the cloud cover. Satellite imagery shows a cellular nature to the clouds, which have broken out best over north-central Minnesota, but the cumulus field still extends well to the west and south. This creates a classic spring conundrum for overnight low temperatures when the mean of guidance is near freezing. High confidence exists for clearing and colder temperatures in the southwestern sections of our region, while lower confidence remains for the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. Am least confident (40-60%) in getting below 35 degrees over northwest Wisconsin due to the cloud cover, so have issued a Frost Advisory for all of northwest Wisconsin and Pine County in Minnesota. Around the Brainerd Lakes, I have the most confidence they will clear out and have gone below guidance with min temps around freezing. Farther north and into the Arrowhead, confidence in cloud cover lowers again, but the incoming air is cold enough I still have high confidence in freezing temperatures. A Freeze Warning has been issued tonight for areas from Duluth to Brainerd and northward, where temperatures will drop into the lower 30s. Wednesday will give us a sunny and milder day with afternoon high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s, with cooler conditions near Lake Superior. Clear skies Wednesday night will allow for rapid cooling once again, leading to another night of patchy frost across the area with lows in the mid 30s. Frost Advisories are possible, even likely Wednesday night into Thursday morning. On Thursday, high pressure departs to the east, bringing sunny skies, southerly winds warmer temperatures which continue into Friday. Highs both days should get into the 60s with upper 50s near Lake Superior. Rain chances return Friday night through Saturday as an upper level trough moves out of the Northern Plains and across the Great Lakes. Mostly cloudy skies and damp conditions will keep Saturday highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Upper level ridging to our west and southerly flow across the region will bring a surge of much warmer temperatures to the region for the rest of the Memorial Day weekend. I expect highs on Monday to be well above normal. However, this will be a fairly active pattern with shortwaves likely to dive through this upper level pattern, and we also have some chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 608 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions expected today. Winds will be light and variable until a lake breeze moves into DLH this afternoon and leads to some brief gusty winds out of the east to southeast. Winds will settle again in the evening and overnight. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Northwest winds will gradually back to the southeast and east across Western Lake Superior today, remaining below ten knots with waves of one foot or less. East winds will persist on Thursday, gradually increasing to 10 to 15 knots while waves remain below three feet. Stronger winds and building waves are anticipated by Friday and Saturday as a low pressure system approaches. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Northwest winds early this morning will remain light and variable today under high pressure. Minimum relative humidity this afternoon will drop below 30 percent for much of the Northland, with some areas seeing below 25 percent in northeast Minnesota. A lake breeze will move inland from Lake Superior in the early afternoon, leading to a quick wind shift, a shot of cold air, and rising relative humidity values in a short amount of time. Fire weather concerns significantly increase on Thursday. Gusty south winds up to 20 mph will combine with minimum relative humidity values falling to 25 percent. The most critical conditions are expected from the northern border southward through the Brainerd Lakes. Moisture returns by Friday, bringing humidity values above 30 percent. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010>012- 018>021-025-026-033>037. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ038. WI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>004- 006>009. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...KML DISCUSSION...LE AVIATION...KML MARINE...KML FIRE WEATHER...KML  517 FXUS63 KLOT 201115 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 615 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry but cooler conditions today and Thursday, followed by increasing rain chances Friday. - Intermittent shower/thunderstorm chances for Memorial Day weekend, though much of the period should be dry. - Several periods of moderate to high swim risk conditions possible from today through early next week due to persistent northeast winds over Lake Michigan. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Mainly dry, breezy and cooler weather conditions are expected today through Thursday, in the wake of yesterday's cold frontal passage. Early morning surface analysis shows this front now extends from western Lake Erie to far southern Illinois along the Ohio River. Have noted a few spotty sprinkles as far north as the Pontiac-Rensselaer areas overnight, likely where lingering moist advection was still occurring within the elevated baroclinic zone north of the surface front. These will end prior to sunrise however, as the southern periphery of a mid-level short wave trough passes east of the region. Farther northwest, 1026 mb surface high pressure was centered near Sioux Falls this morning, and is progged to build east-northeast across the upper Great Lakes region by tonight. This will result in our north-northwest winds shifting northeast and becoming breezy by midday/afternoon with gusts near 20 mph (around 25 mph near/downwind of Lake Michigan into northeast IL/northwest IN). Temperatures, after being in the 70s and 80s over the past several days, will be limited to the low-mid 50s along the Lake Michigan shore, and the low-mid 60s well inland beneath partly to mostly cloudy skies. With the breezy northeast winds and building waves on the lake, have issued a Beach Hazard Statement for the Illinois and Indiana shores today into Thursday. Overnight lows tonight may dip to around the 40 degree mark along the IL/WI border, and in the low-mid 40s elsewhere with partly cloudy skies. Thursday will be similar, though with more easterly winds and slightly milder temperatures in the mid-upper 60s well west and south of the lake-cooled areas of northeast IL and far northwest IN. Clouds look to spread in from the west late Thursday/Thursday night, ahead of a mid-level short wave lifting northeast from the southern Plains and the base of a western CONUS upper trough. An associated surface low pressure wave is progged to track into the lower Missouri Valley by late Thursday night, then slowly track northeast across central IL/northern IN Friday into Friday night as the short wave transits the region. This is expected to spread rain/showers across the area during this time, though there remains some guidance/ensemble spread as to the northward extent of the rain shield into our antecedent dry low-level air, though rain chances increase across much of the area by Friday afternoon and evening. Thunder potential looks quite low, with the forecast MUCAPE reservoir forecast to remain largely south of the cwa. Cloud cover, rain and enhanced E-NE surface winds north of the low track will make for another cool day Friday with highs again in the 50s near the lake and low-mid 60s elsewhere. Rain should taper off overnight Friday night as the mid-level and surface waves pass. Medium-range ensembles depict the aforementioned western upper trough tracking slowly across the Midwest through Sunday, eventually shifting east of the region Monday/Tuesday. While this may maintain at least some threat of intermittent showers over the holiday weekend, current guidance suggests that there will likely be many dry daytime hours. A gradual warming trend is also depicted Saturday into Tuesday with daytime temperatures forecast to warm back into the 70s/possibly 80s. Ratzer && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 No major forecast concerns for the terminals through this TAF period. High pressure is starting to build in from the northwest which is scattering clouds across the area. However, a plume of 3000-3500 ft clouds is oozing inland off of southern Lake Michigan and is impacting ORD, MDW, and GYY. With the increasing subsidence and high May sun angle, suspect these clouds should begin to erode over the next 1-2 hours resulting in SCT to BKN 20000-25000 ft clouds for the rest of the period. Though, cannot rule out that the lower clouds linger through 15z (especially at GYY) given the developing onshore winds. Speaking of winds, expect directions to settle into a northeasterly direction by 13z and will remain as such for the rest of the period. Speeds will generally be in the 10-15 kt range today, but some lower 20 kt gusts may be seen at times. Winds speeds will ease this evening into the 8-10 kt range where they will remain through the day on Thursday. Yack && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Beach Hazards Statement from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Thursday afternoon for ILZ006-ILZ103-ILZ104. IN...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday morning for INZ001. Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday morning for INZ002. LM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT Thursday for the IL nearshore waters. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for the IN nearshore waters. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  501 FXUS64 KLZK 201114 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 614 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 144 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 -Chances for showers/thunderstorms remains for western into northwest sections through the morning hours -Drier later this afternoon into early Thursday -Better chances for more organized convection later Thursday into midday Friday -Unsettled pattern will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms forecast into early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 144 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Most of the convection has moved SE of the state early this Wed morning...with mostly dry conditions ongoing. However...the main SFC boundary remains west/NW of the state where the lower dewpts are noted. An upper wave was drifting into the state early this morning...with some new convection developing along the AR/OK border near/south of FSM just ahead of the main SFC boundary. Expect some additional convection to continue to develop in this same region ...and areas just north into the morning hrs. Coverage of convection looks to decrease by later this morning into the afternoon hrs as the upper wave moves east of AR...and upper ridging develops overhead. However...keep some mention of convection for central/SRN sections late this afternoon into the evening hrs as the SFC front/dewpt boundary drops further south into the state. POPs will increase back north on Thu into Fri as the SFC front lifts back north as a warm front. A new upper shortwave will also lift NE over the region around this same timeframe...aiding in providing lift for more organized/widespread convection Thu night/Fri morning. While the threat for seeing SVR Wx remains low at this time...mainly due to timing of the Thu night/Fri system...there may still be an isolated strong/SVR TSRA during this time frame. Locally heavy rainfall may also be seen...which may lead to an isolated flash flood threat. There will be a brief lull in the convection Fri afternoon/evening...but an unsettled pattern will persist through the Memorial Day weekend into next week. Flow aloft will persist from the SW over the region...and upper waves will pass overhead throughout the period. This will keep chances for precip elevated pretty much every day through the end of the forecast. Chances for SVR Wx look uncertain...and will depend on details specific to each day regarding instability and SHR. Several rounds of rainfall may be seen during this period...but exact placement of heaviest amounts also remains uncertain at this time. Even so...some areas will continue to see beneficial rainfall that should help improve the ongoing drought conditions. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Low cigs and some reduced vsby in place across area terminals this morning (especially northern AR sites) will slowly improve throughout the day. Most sites should see VFR conditions before 21/00z. Sfc winds will be less than 10 kts and generally out of the NE today. Low confidence in RA/TS activity impacting any terminals today. Overnight, will see cigs lower to MVFR/IFR at most terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 74 60 75 64 / 30 10 50 90 Camden AR 82 64 77 64 / 30 20 80 90 Harrison AR 69 58 71 61 / 30 10 50 80 Hot Springs AR 81 63 75 64 / 30 20 60 90 Little Rock AR 78 62 75 64 / 30 10 50 90 Monticello AR 81 66 79 66 / 40 30 80 90 Mount Ida AR 80 64 74 65 / 30 20 70 90 Mountain Home AR 70 58 73 61 / 30 10 40 80 Newport AR 75 61 77 64 / 50 10 50 90 Pine Bluff AR 80 64 77 65 / 30 20 60 90 Russellville AR 79 63 75 64 / 30 10 60 90 Searcy AR 76 60 76 63 / 30 10 50 90 Stuttgart AR 79 64 77 66 / 30 10 50 90 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...62 AVIATION...67  484 FXUS65 KPUB 201114 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 514 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across the plains (storms expected to last well into the early AM hours over far eastern plains). - A few Strong to Severe Storms expected over the plains Thursday. - Gradual warming trend through the period (No significant fire weather concerns expected though through the period). && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1259 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Today into Tonight... The main concern during the short term will be another round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected over the southern mtns by early afternoon, moving onto the plains later this afternoon and over the far eastern plains this evening. Storms today are not expected to be all that strong, although small hail and gusty winds will be possible, especially along the southern I-25 corridor. The one issue is the storms may last well into the early AM hours over the far eastern plains, especially north of US50. As for temp, it will be cool once again this afternoon, with max temps only int the U50s to L70s across the plains. The coolest weather over the plains will be over N El Paso county, with the warmest temperatures over the southern I-25 corridor, The San Luis Valley should see highs in the U60s. A couple of inches of snow will be possible at the higher elevations of the central mountains and Pikes Peak. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1259 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Overall trend in the weather during this period will be gradually warming temperatures. 70s on THursday will be replaced by temps approaching 90 by mid week next week. We will also it becoming drier. Fortunately, surface winds are not expected to be strong and widespread critical RH values are not anticipated, so fire weather concerns will be low. The main concern during this long term forecast period will be on Thursday as favorable shear will be in place and sufficient instability will be over the plains, and expect a good chance to see some rotating storms over the plains during this day as CAMS are showing some modest helicity swaths moving over the plains during the late afternoon and early evening time periods. Likewise I anticipate the possibility of large hail and damaging winds, with a low end tornado threat possible. SPC still has the fcst area under a marginal risk, but it does have a 2% percent tornado threat over all of the plains on the 06 UTC SWODY2. For Fri and Sat, we will see some thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours, but expect the activity to be weaker and more isolated. Drier weather is expected the rest of the period, but we may see a ramp up in activity over the interior on Tuesday afternoon. \/Hodanish && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 514 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 KALS: VFR conditions are expected through 24 hours. Breezy west- southwest winds will pick up today, gusting close to 30 knots through early this evening. Mid-level clouds will persist, with winds weakening to 10 knots or less later tonight into Thursday morning. KCOS and KPUB: MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to persist throughout the period. East to southeast winds will help keep low clouds socked up against the terrain, with occasional rain and drizzle, especially at KCOS. Rain showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the area this afternoon, bringing periods of rain, thunder, and gusty outflow winds. Due to limited coverage, left as PROB30 groups for now. KCOS has an overall higher chance of seeing precipitation, with two PROB30 groups, while KPUB has a slightly lower chance and more narrow time window.Once the showers and storms move off for the night, low clouds and potential patchy fog will last through the end of this forecast period. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH/KT LONG TERM...HODANISH/KT AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO  600 FXUS63 KFGF 201117 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 617 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freeze Warning for all areas tonight except west central Minnesota (Frost Advisory) with temperatures widely falling to the low 30s and upper 20s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Some guidance is beginning to hint at fog potential along the the eastern edge of the valley tonight once winds go calm with soundings ranging from a 3-5 degree dewpoint spread to a full on low level inversion and ground fog. Unsure whether clear skies prevail with the calm winds or if patchy ground fog develops but even with a worst case scenario would expect isolated pockets as low as a 1/4 to 1/2 mile with more widespread 1-2 mile vis from Fergus Falls north to Hallock and Crookston. Would say that is about a 30% chance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...Synopsis... Upper trough axis currently over the Red River Valley will pull east into the western Great Lakes tonight. The high pressure centered over the western Plains currently will shift into the upper midwest tonight. Another trough will be digging into the Rockies tomorrow night into Thursday, so westerly flow will quickly shift back to southwesterly. The upper trough to our west splits into a northern and southern branch, and ensemble members vary a bit on how exactly they handle it as it moves east. Most solutions do push the trough east over the weekend, with ridging building into the Plains by Memorial Day. Details such as precipitation timing and placement with the trough are low confidence, but there seems to be good agreement on below average temperatures becoming near to above average by the end of the period. ...Frost and freeze headlines... Clouds should clear out as the upper trough moves east, and with high pressure overhead, winds will become light and variable overnight. There will be a good setup for radiational cooling, and dew points currently in the low 30s over southern Manitoba should be down in our area by tonight. Temps should drop to near or below the freezing mark in most locations, with a 60 to 90 percent chance of 32 or lower for much of eastern ND into northwestern MN. Probabilities of less than 32 are much lower for some reason in west central MN from Elbow Lake up to Detroit Lakes, with chances 20 percent or less.Kept Grant, Otter Tail, and western Becker as frost advisory but have the rest of the CWA in a Freeze Warning. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Shallow fog this morning will improve fairly quickly and within the next 2 hours, giving way to VFR conditions. Winds will initially be light and variable this morning but will increase from the south towards the afternoon hours. Once this occurs, winds will remain elevated through the end of the TAF period, with the highest speeds generally in eastern North Dakota, decreasing as you head further east. No other aviation impacts are expected at this time. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ001>009- 013>017-022>024-028-029-032. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ027-030-031- 040. && $$ UPDATE...TT DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...Perroux  601 FXUS65 KTFX 201117 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 517 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front brings a round of scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms today, mostly over central and north- central Montana. - This activity will transition to general areas of rain and mountain snow as it moves into southwest Montana tonight into Thursday morning. - The precipitation decreases in coverage by Thursday afternoon,with much warmer and drier conditions moving in for most if not all of the holiday weekend. - An approaching cold front will bring breezy to windy conditions and increased shower and thunderstorm activity Monday into Tuesday followed by a period of cooler temperatures, mountain snow, and lower elevation rain. && .UPDATE... /Issued 312 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026/ Early morning update has been published, with the only change being to PoPS which was to increase chances across North Central Montana where radar returns show shower activity increasing. Otherwise the remainder of the forecast remains on track and no other changes were needed. - Moldan && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 312 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: Scattered showers over the plains have continued well into the evening hours despite the loss of diurnal heating. The biggest concern with these showers have been localized gusty winds, with a top wind gust of 50 mph reported near the Big Sandy area. Northwesterly flow aloft will maintain these isolated showers through around 1 or 2 AM. Otherwise, the focus shifts to a trough and attendant cold front that will dive southeastward and initiate a round of scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms over north-central and central MT later this morning and afternoon. Cooler surface temperatures with ML CAPE struggling to reach a couple hundred J/kg will reduce the overall impact from this activity, though isolated instances gusty winds over 40 mph, small hail/graupel, and productive downpours will be present with the stronger cores. The forcing from the trough pushes this activity into southwest MT tonight into Thursday morning, with H700 temperatures falling to around -5C and supporting accumulating snow down to 6000 ft. Snow impacts for Thursday morning look to the be greatest over the higher terrain of Madison and Gallatin counties and will mostly be in the form of cold and wet outdoor conditions. Temperatures will run a few degrees below average on Thursday before weak ridging aloft warms things up heading into the weekend. Westerly flow aloft will be strong enough to mix gusty winds to the surface Sunday and Monday while temperatures warm well into the 70s and 80s. The next trough and cold front will usher in a more unstable southwesterly flow aloft early next week for increased shower and thunderstorm activity and more breezy to windy conditions, windiest over southwest MT. Some storms may become strong to severe depending on the troughs's timing, strength and whether it undergoes shearing or splitting. Note that closed lows such as this one often run a little slower than model guidance. This may result in hotter and drier weather on Monday if the cold front runs late and arrives on Tuesday. There will be at least a period of cooler temperatures and more widespread precipitation/mountain snow on the backside of this system heading towards mid-week, particularly if the main circulation stays close enough to exert a stronger influence over the Northern Rockies. - RCG - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Today's showers and thunderstorms will transition to areas of rain and mountain snow tonight into Thursday morning...Scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms develop over central and north-centrtal MT by the late morning hours. This activity will bring more productive rainfall than those of the last couple of days. Although severe weather is not expected with the cooler temperatures behind the front, there may be localized instances of gusty winds over 40 mph, small hail or graupel, and heavy downpours over a quarter inch with the stronger cores. This activity will expand in coverage and become more stratiform as it slides southward into southwest MT tonight into Thursday morning. H700 temperatures falling to around -4 to -7C combined with lingering convective processes may drop snow levels as low as 5000 ft at times, though accumulating snow looks to primarily be confined to areas above 6000 to 6500 ft and even higher. Snowfall amounts look to be most significant over the northern portions of the Madison/Gallatin ranges where the probabilities for 3 inches of snow or more are currently running above 70% tonight through Thursday morning. Other mountain areas of the southwest, along the Continental Divide, and over the central island ranges will generally see trace amounts up to around an inch or two on the high end. Overall, cold and wet outdoor recreation will be the primary impact with this system. Total rainfall/liquid equivalent amounts will generally range between a tenth to a quarter inch for most lower elevation locations with a sharp decreasing gradient to just a few hundreths or so along the Hi-Line and the drier southwest valleys along and west of I15. Of course rainfall amounts in excess of a half inch will be more common for areas over and near higher terrain. Precipitation diminishes and becomes more scattered in nature by Thursday afternoon. - RCG && .AVIATION... 20/12z TAF Period An upper level disturbance moving over the Northern Rockies will spread precipitation from north to south across North Central through Southwest Montana, with VFR CIGS falling to MVFR/low-VFR between 15-21z today and then persisting and/or falling further to IFR/MVFR through the remainder of the 2012/2112 TAF period. While terminals will predominately see light rain or rain showers the KGTF, KLWT, KHLN, KBZN, and KEKS terminals have the opportunity for an isolated thunderstorms between 20/18z and 21/03z, with the primary threat being erratic wind gusts. Mountain obscuration will continue to increase through 15z this morning. - Moldan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 56 36 60 37 / 90 60 20 0 CTB 54 33 62 37 / 70 20 10 0 HLN 63 36 61 37 / 60 90 20 0 BZN 61 33 56 31 / 30 90 50 0 WYS 56 28 51 23 / 20 90 40 0 DLN 61 33 58 32 / 20 80 30 0 HVR 61 34 65 35 / 50 10 20 0 LWT 56 33 55 33 / 80 60 40 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  637 FXUS63 KDMX 201118 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 618 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool today through Friday with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Overnight lows will be in the 40s. - Spotty showers move into the area on Thursday, becoming more widespread showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening and Friday. Severe weather is unlikely. - Warming trend this weekend with a return to the 80s. The forecast is dry from later Saturday through early next week with precipitation chances returning late Tuesday into Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 238 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Very patchy early morning fog has developed in parts of northwest Iowa where high cloud have cleared out and temperatures have cooled to near the dewpoint. Widespread fog is not expected this morning, but shallow fog may develop in low lying areas through sunrise. Temperatures falling off quickly behind the clouds to create this patchy fog development is also the area we are watching for frost potential early this morning. Temperatures in far northwest reaches of the area are around 38-41 degrees and have reached their dewpoints. It is possible temperatures fall another degree or two through the morning, but with only a handful of sites skimming the upper 30s frost is not expected to be widespread. It will be another cool day today with high pressure keeping warmer air well south of the state. At the same time, a long wave trough is developing across the western US. This will slowly move west, with the first indication being high clouds filtering into Iowa this afternoon. Temperatures remain chilly on Thursday in the low 60s. That trough will shift east with two embedded vorticity maxes. The southern vorticity max begins to lift into the area on Thursday morning but will battle dry air, resulting in spotty precipitation across the area in the morning to afternoon. The northern vorticity max with upper level trough axis swings across the area later Thursday and on Friday, providing the next chance for showers and a few thunderstorms across the area, as outlined below. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 By Thursday evening a 500 MB trough will be moving over the U.S. Rockies, and will subsequently become negatively tilted as it emerges over the northern High Plains Thursday night and Friday. As this trough swings across the region, it will generate a broad swath of rain associated with surging moisture, increasing winds aloft, and modest theta-e advection. This swath will enter our southwestern counties Thursday night and move across our forecast area on Friday. Instability will be very limited with surface temperatures only in the 50s to lower 60s, but will still be sufficient for a few elevated thunderstorms at times though severe weather will be unlikely. The rain will move out to the northeast late Friday, after which one last lobe of vorticity clearing out the larger-scale trough will cross Iowa late Saturday. Moisture will be much more limited and it remains to be seen whether any additional showers or thunderstorms will occur in association with that feature. For now 70-80% POPs are carried across Iowa Thursday night into Friday, with only 10-20% POPs on Saturday. In the first half of next week, from around Sunday to Wednesday, a large thermal trough will build over the central U.S., as a blocking pattern sets up with a large 500 MB low forming over the western U.S. Synoptically this would tend to support significantly warmer and generally dry weather for our region. However, there will initially be a week 500 MB trough/low over Texas as the larger ridge begins forming on Sunday, and long- range models are at odds with how that feature will interact with the ridge. The EC and GEM essentially wash out the low as it is overwhelmed by the larger thermal ridge, however, the GFS maintains it as a discrete feature that becomes trapped in the ridge and advects slowly northward over Iowa early next week. This leads to rapidly decreasing confidence in forecast details in the outer periods, however, even in the GFS solution generally warmer temperatures would still be favored, and it seems a safe bet that the cool weather of today and the next several days will be broken as we head into next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Wind remains under 12 kts and will shift from the northeast this morning to out of the east-southeast by Thursday morning. Broken high clouds will begin to move by 21-00z and persist through the end of the period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hagenhoff LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...Hagenhoff  649 FXUS65 KABQ 201119 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 519 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 511 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 - A marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and large hail exists over southeastern NM this afternoon and early evening. - Strong gusty easterly winds pushing into Santa Fe and ABQ this morning will taper off this morning. - The threat of rapid fire spread from any new spark favored to return to the middle Rio Grande Valley and surrounding highlands this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 127 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Southwesterly flow aloft with embedded small disturbances and mid to upper level moisture producing broken skies remains aloft over NM this morning. With a stubbornly slow moving upper level trough still over UT/AZ, these southwesterly winds will remain thru western NM thru the short term period. A moist continental airmass that pushed into eastern NM behind yesterday's cold front remains entrenched and has pushed westward thru the gaps of the central mountain chain bringing gusty easterly/southeasterly winds into Santa Fe and ABQ. This airmass has shunted the intrusion of a maritime tropical airmass from the Gulf southward into the TX Big Bend region. This is favoring the shallow more stable continental airmass persisting over eastern NM thru much of the today. A blanket of low stratus is beginning to develop along the eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristo's on GeoColor satellite imagery this hour and is favored to expand further over eastern NM. Some the soupier Gulf moisture will try to work its way northward however, pushing up the Pecos River Valley into southeastern NM, perhaps further north along the central highlands as well. This is favoring a scenario where higher convective instability existing along the south-central highlands and eastern slopes of the south-central mountains with lesser instability further north and east across eastern NM. Coupled with strong southwesterly vertical wind shear marking 45-50kts of 0-6km bulk shear, this is yielding a marginal risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon. There is considerable uncertainty regarding how far the soupier low-level Gulf moisture can intrude northward and how entrenched the low stratus blanket will be thru east-central and northeastern NM, especially given the higher level cloud coverage tonight. Simply put, the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms favors southeastern NM, with lower chances as one goes northward towards I-40. Lighter showers mixed with drizzle is favored further north than that toward the CO border. Thursday sees a similar set up as today with higher moisture pushing back west thru the gaps of the central mountain chain into the Rio Grande Valley in the morning before retreating toward TX in the afternoon, replaced by drier southwesterly winds advancing from western NM. The aforementioned boundary between the interior moist continental airmass and soupier maritime tropical airmass from the Gulf becomes rather diffuse with southerly winds through far eastern NM. While another round of low clouds with light drizzle is favored over portions of eastern NM Thursday morning, this will quickly burn off with chances for scattered afternoon thunderstorms favoring development along a sharpening dryline. Any thunderstorm activity will track northeastward toward the TX/OK Panhandles. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 127 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Low level moisture across eastern NM will advance back west a few counties deep from TX Thursday night into Friday morning. This will be short-lived before the stalled upper level H5 trough finally treks eastward over CO. This will bring drier westerly flow advancing all the way through the NM/TX line Friday afternoon, shutting down precipitation chances. A cold front will back south and west thru eastern NM Friday night into Saturday morning behind the departing upper level trough. This will return increased low- level moisture to eastern NM once again as a ridge of high pressure begins to develop over the AZ/NM this weekend. Afternoon thunderstorm activity will favor eastern areas Saturday and Sunday with drier conditions along and west of the central mountain chain. Convective outflow will try to push low-level moisture further west by Monday allowing for a brief expansion of thunderstorm activity into the Rio Grande Valley toward the Continental Divide. Thereafter, an upper level trough over the Great Basin region will bring strengthening dry southwesterly flow into the Desert Southwest. The increase in shear overriding the residual low-level moisture across NM would favor strong to severe thunderstorm activity across the forecast area Tuesday afternoon. Drier conditions punch further east across NM by next Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 511 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Strong easterly gap winds remain at KSAF and KABQ this hour, but are forecast to steadily taper off through the morning hours before turning southerly this afternoon. Mostly MVFR ceilings have spread across eastern NM, and amds may be necessary at KROW to adjust if ceilings come down. However, given the easterly downsloping into the Pecos River Valley, have brought ceilings there to MVFR in a tempo group. Afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity will favor far southeastern NM with lighter more drizzle precipitation if any favored further north toward northeastern NM. Drier southwesterly winds return to areas along and west of the central mountain chain this afternoon. East canyon winds favored to return to KSAF and KABQ late this evening and tonight, but at a much lesser clip. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 127 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Elevated fire weather with breezy dry southwesterly winds over western NM with higher moisture and excellent recoveries alongside southeasterly winds over eastern NM remains today and Thursday. The Rio Grande Valley will see higher moisture push in thru the gaps of the central mountain chain this morning and tonight, mixed out by dry southwesterlies in the afternoon. Afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity will favor eastern NM as well, with the strongest thunderstorms favoring southeastern portions of the area. Drier westerlies advance eastward toward TX Friday afternoon, replaced by another cold front from CO thru eastern NM bringing a return of low-level moisture and good to excellent recoveries Saturday. Daily rounds of slower moving afternoon thunderstorm activity will favor areas along the central mountain chain Saturday and Sunday with gusty outflow winds pushing moisture westward into the Rio Grande Valley and Continental Divide Monday. Thus Monday is favored to see the most westward coverage of afternoon thunderstorm activity. Wetting footprints will be relatively small until Tuesday when faster storm motions will be favored. Drier southwesterlies advance back thru western and central NM Tuesday and Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 76 42 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 73 31 75 32 / 5 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 74 40 75 40 / 5 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 74 35 75 36 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 72 42 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 77 40 77 40 / 0 0 0 0Quemado......................... 75 42 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 78 50 76 50 / 0 0 5 0 Datil........................... 74 46 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 79 40 80 38 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 84 44 84 43 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 66 33 69 33 / 5 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 73 49 73 48 / 20 5 5 0 Pecos........................... 70 43 74 40 / 30 40 10 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 69 41 70 41 / 20 0 5 0 Red River....................... 59 34 61 34 / 20 5 10 0 Angel Fire...................... 65 30 66 29 / 30 10 20 0 Taos............................ 74 37 74 35 / 20 5 10 0 Mora............................ 66 42 70 39 / 30 50 30 0 Espanola........................ 80 45 81 43 / 20 5 10 0 Santa Fe........................ 73 48 75 47 / 20 20 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 77 45 78 44 / 20 10 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 83 54 82 54 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 84 51 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 87 50 86 50 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 85 52 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 87 48 85 48 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 85 51 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 86 46 85 47 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 86 51 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 86 48 85 48 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 80 53 80 52 / 5 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 85 52 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 89 54 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 77 48 76 48 / 10 5 0 0 Tijeras......................... 78 48 77 48 / 5 5 0 0 Edgewood........................ 77 44 78 44 / 10 5 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 79 40 79 40 / 10 5 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 69 44 74 44 / 30 20 10 0 Mountainair..................... 79 45 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 78 46 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 81 53 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 75 50 73 51 / 10 0 5 0 Capulin......................... 58 40 66 39 / 20 60 60 30 Raton........................... 64 42 70 40 / 40 50 60 20 Springer........................ 65 43 72 40 / 30 50 60 10 Las Vegas....................... 63 45 72 42 / 30 50 20 5 Clayton......................... 61 47 71 47 / 30 60 60 50 Roy............................. 60 45 71 44 / 40 50 50 10 Conchas......................... 68 48 80 48 / 60 50 40 10 Santa Rosa...................... 68 47 77 46 / 60 50 20 10 Tucumcari....................... 70 50 80 50 / 60 40 50 20 Clovis.......................... 69 51 80 52 / 50 20 30 5 Portales........................ 70 50 81 51 / 50 20 30 5 Fort Sumner..................... 73 50 82 49 / 60 30 20 10 Roswell......................... 80 55 86 55 / 40 20 5 0 Picacho......................... 78 50 82 52 / 40 10 20 0 Elk............................. 81 49 82 50 / 20 5 10 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24  734 FXUS63 KLSX 201120 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 620 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler temperatures are expected through Friday. - There will be several chances for showers and thunderstorms over the upcoming Memorial Day weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Temperatures have dropped into the 50s early this morning behind the cold front that has now moved south of Missouri and Illinois. There are scattered showers that continue to form to the north of the front by low level frontogenesis that will gradually move south of the CWA through mid-late morning. The HREF is then showing a short wave ridge building over the Midwest later today into tonight which will keep the forecast dry into early Thursday. At the same time a large surface high will slowly move east across the Great Lakes causing the surface winds to slowly shift from northerly to easterly by tomorrow. Model guidance is showing that we will likely stay mainly cloudy through tomorrow, with lower ceilings in the southern half of the CWA today which favors cooler temperatures. Highs will likely stay in the 60s today and range from the mid 60s to mid 70s on Thursday. Britt && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 After the brief dry period on Wednesday night and Thursday, the chances for showers and thunderstorms increases over the Memorial Day weekend into next week as the LREF is showing southwesterly upper flow over Missouri and Illinois. Model guidance is consistent with a trough moving across the area late Thursday night into Friday which is when the LREF has 60-90% of its members are producing rain over the area. This is also the period when PWATS will be the highest (near 2.0") and WPC has highlighted the southern half of the CWA in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. There are lower chances on Friday night, but two or three more shortwaves will move across the area over the weekend bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms the rest of the weekend. At this point, the LREF/NBM members are keeping the better chances (40-60%) over southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois which is closer to where a surface front will be during the extended weekend. Temperatures will start to warm back up over the weekend, though as pointed out by the previous discussion, the NBM is on the warmest side of guidance. While upper heights will be building over the area which favors the warmer temperatures, they will be tempered by the clouds and rain chances which should keep highs in the 70s. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning) Issued at 604 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Mainly dry conditions are expected through the period. Ceilings near 3000 feet at JEF, STL, and CPS are expected to gradually lift to near 5000 feet by 15Z. Ceilings at UIN are expected to stay above 10000 feet through the period. Northerly winds will veer out of the northeast while staying below 10 knots. Britt && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  818 FXUS63 KTOP 201121 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 621 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool temperatures through the workweek give way to a warming and a mainly dry Memorial Day weekend - highs returning to the upper 70s to near 80. - Showers with embedded thunderstorm chances Thursday into Saturday morning likely across two separate periods. More areawide for Thursday into early Friday. Friday night into early Saturday mainly south of I-70. - Another Pacific trough digs into the western CONUS mid to late next week. Could bring another storm system to the Plains by the middle part of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 454 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Surface high pressure holds firm across the central Plains through Wednesday as a modified Canadian air mass maintains cool and dry conditions. With quality return flow yet to develop, highs will struggle to reach the upper 60s as the stable air mass keeps temperatures well below normal for late May. The first precipitation chance comes into Thursday as isentropic ascent develops along the 295-300K surface ahead of a shortwave trough emerging from the Intermountain West. Southerly flow returning through the H850 level supports a deepening moisture profile with precipitable water values near the 75th climatological percentile for this time of year. With a fairly deeply saturated column, generally weaker instability favors efficient stratiform rainfall over organized convection. Peak rainfall rates and best storm chances are expected late Thursday into Friday morning. A secondary window for rain and storm chances sets up Friday night into Saturday morning as the main trough axis lifts out of the Rockies with more focused ascent just northwest of the area. At least NAM soundings currently indicate that modest elevated instability and marginal shear could overlap mainly across east-central areas. Seems worth monitoring though severe weather potential appears limited at this time. Heights rise across the central CONUS through the weekend. Expect mainly dry conditions for much of the weekend through Memorial Day with temperatures climbing back above normal. Memorial Day highs reach into the middle 80s across the area. The next potential storm system arrives mid to late next week as another Pacific trough digs into the western CONUS. Increasing Gulf moisture return and a more dynamic forcing mechanism warrant close attention as the period draws closer, though spread among the ENS, GEFS and GEPS remains wide at this range. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR for the period with mid clouds increasing into the last half of the period ahead of the next weather system approaching from the west. ENE winds increase to around or just above 10kts later this morning into the afternoon as the surface ridge shifts gradually east. Should remain dry this period with any precipitation likely holding until sometime during the first half of next period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Drake AVIATION...Drake  739 FXUS64 KFWD 201120 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 620 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Following a lull in rain chances during the daytime, additional thunderstorms will spread into the area Wednesday night into Thursday. - Daily chances for scattered showers and storms will continue through the weekend and into early next week. Locally heavy rain is possible, with a low potential for strong or severe thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Trailing stratiform precipitation lingers across portions of Central Texas early this morning following the departure of convective complexes along a cold front. This light rain and occasional thunder will continue to taper off heading towards sunrise, with a stabilized and worked-over airmass in its wake. Without any well-defined MCV features present, there will be minimal forcing for any new convective development within the CWA through the morning aside from weak warm advection at the 850mb level. With trailing subsidence in the mid-levels seemingly in place between shortwave disturbances, it appears likely that most of the daytime will be dry today while we await additional thunderstorms arriving from the west later this evening. With mostly cloudy skies along with post-frontal ENE winds, highs will struggle to make it out of the 70s. By late afternoon, the radar should become active across West Texas in response to another pronounced shortwave pivoting through parent large-scale mid-level troughing. This should send one or more convective clusters towards the CWA late this evening or overnight. A lack of deep-layer shear will result in storms that struggle to organize despite moderate instability, and so the overall potential for any organized severe weather is quite low. However, an isolated storm could become strong or marginally severe heading into Thursday as this slow-moving activity continues to progress eastward across the CWA. This will be especially true for any convection that may still exist on Thursday afternoon when destabilization will be further aided by daytime heating. However, the most prominent threat will likely be flooding, as slow storm motions and efficient rainfall processes support locally heavy rain. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Although modest height rises may overspread the area heading into Friday, the recovery of stronger southerly flow and a higher theta-e airmass will still support scattered shower and thunderstorm activity, most of which will likely be diurnally driven. This airmass recovery will also mean a return to warmer and more humid conditions, with highs in the mid 80s and heat index values around 90 on Friday afternoon. By Saturday, a diffuse upper-level low will drift into the Southern Plains where it will linger for a few days while the synoptic pattern remains fairly stagnant. This regime will allow for daily thunderstorm chances to continue over the weekend and into early next week. While activity would likely reach a maximum during peak heating each day, the weakness aloft and occasional subtle shortwaves rounding the low could support showers and thunderstorms outside of traditional diurnal time periods. The presence of this low will also mean very weak shear through the column, and most convection would likely resemble activity more characteristic of summertime thunderstorms. Strong instability but weak shear should lead to mainly ordinary cell or multicellular storm modes with a reduced potential for organized severe weather. Slow storm motions will continue to support a flooding threat through, especially after multipleconsecutive days of rainfall for some locations. Increased cloud cover will continue to provide below normal temperatures through the extended forecast period with highs mostly in the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Deteriorated flying conditions will be slow to improve today with VFR likely not returning until around 20-22Z. Current IFR/LIFR ceilings across D10 should improve to low-end MVFR around mid to late morning. For Waco, MVFR cigs have moved in during the last couple of hours, though the Central TX stratus deck is much more discontinuous. Waco should remain MVFR through midday, but have also included a TEMPO for IFR through 16Z. After conditions improve this afternoon, much of the evening will be VFR before an additional round of stratus impacts all sites Wednesday night/Thursday morning. MVFR/IFR has been introduced towards the end of the TAF, with the timing of these ceiling/vis reductions likely needing to be refined in future issuances. Otherwise, showers and storms will move into the area Thursday morning, but confidence in coverage and timing is low at this time. Winds will be out of the east/northeast around 6-11 kts. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 66 78 66 / 10 50 80 50 Waco 82 67 79 66 / 10 50 90 50 Paris 82 65 76 64 / 10 50 90 80 Denton 79 64 78 64 / 10 60 80 50 McKinney 81 66 77 65 / 10 60 90 60 Dallas 83 67 79 66 / 10 50 80 60 Terrell 83 66 78 65 / 10 50 90 70 Corsicana 85 70 81 68 / 10 60 90 60 Temple 83 68 80 67 / 10 50 80 50 Mineral Wells 78 63 78 62 / 10 50 80 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Stalley LONG TERM....Stalley AVIATION...Gordon  880 FXUS63 KMKX 201124 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 624 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect tonight into tomorrow morning for a High Swim Risk at beaches in Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha Counties. - Dry, but cooler today through Thursday with highs in the 50s to lower 60s due to onshore flow off of Lake Michigan. - Expect a gradual warming trend through the Memorial Day weekend. - Rain chances return Friday afternoon and night (40-70%), with lower chances through the holiday weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued 621 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A Beach Hazard Statement has been issued for Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha Counties starting this evening and running into Thursday morning. Gusty northeast winds are expected to drive high waves and dangerous currents with north sides of piers and breakwaters being favored areas for dangerous waters. Swimming is not advised while the Beach Hazard Statement is in effect. CMiller && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1120 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Today through Thursday: Clouds linger overnight into early Wednesday morning as the backside of the upper-level shortwave trough swings across the the Upper Midwest. This cloud cover will help insulate temps from falling as low as they could, but still expecting lows in the 40s overnight. If there is any breaks in the clouds before sunrise, could not rule out a few inland location dipping into the upper 30s. Otherwise the midweek pattern will be dominated by high pressure building into the Upper Great Lakes region through the day Wednesday. While expecting dry weather to prevail, expecting northeast to easterly flow off of Lake Michigan through Thursday. Thus, temps will remain much cooler along the lake and inland to along the Kettle Moraine. Mainly looking at highs in the 50s to around 60F, with coolest temps closer to the lake. Meanwhile west of the Kettle Moraine will be less influenced from the onshore flow, but still looking at daytime temps in the lower 60s. Thursday is actually looking slightly cooler further inland giving the easterly as compared to the northeasterly winds today (Wednesday). However models continue to pick up on a lake breeze developing later in the day due to the stronger temp gradient paired with enhancement of the building high pressure to the north. Thus this could push the cooler temps inland faster in the afternoon than the current forecast, but expect temps to fall pretty quick behind this lake breeze/front later in the afternoon/evening dipping into the lower 50s and upper 40s with overnight lows for Wednesday night in the lower 40s. Thursday night lows will be fairly similar in the 40s with prevailing east winds as well. Wagner && .LONG TERM... Issued 1120 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Friday through Tuesday: An upper level trough will descend down from western Canada into the northern plain then pivot northeast toward James Bay for the weekend. As this upper level low pivots through Minnesota Friday, a short wave will begin to pull up from the desert southwest late Saturday into Sunday. Weak WAA will be in place through the weekend so combined with the lift there will be chances for rain Friday through Sunday. Friday by far looks like the best time for rain with POPs around 60-80% Friday night. POPs are trending later in the day which seems to be a combination of dry air in the low level that will delay onset and guidance overall trending a bit later in the day. If this trend continues I could see the onset of rain and maybe a few storms trending a bit later yet. For Saturday and Sunday the lift from the shortwave will be a bit weaker. Given this and the differences in timing and location across models, POPs are hovering around 15-25%. WAA will cause temperatures to climb both days with highs in the 60s Saturday and mid 60s to upper 70s Sunday. So the instability should be there and moisture, it will just depend on where and when this larger scale lift moves through. Regardless this should be less organized and more scattered than Friday. Definitely NOT a wash out. A quick area of weak high pressure looks to try to traverse the Great Lakes Region for early next week. Guidance currently has some low chance POPs for Monday and Tuesday, but unsure if this will actually materialize. While the high pressure system is on the weaker side the stationary front across the Ohio River Valley should be far enough away to prevent any showers and 500mb clusters look to keep the ridging in place aloft. I'm sure there are a few ensemble members trying to bring more moisture and mid level support further north to justify the low POP (10-20%). Either way, the better organization is to the south, which means at worst it would be isolated to scattered showers even if those few ensemble members hold out. Temperatures look to continue to warm into mid week with a return to the 80s. Patterson && .AVIATION... Issued 621 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions are expected today. Winds will come around from northerly to northeasterly today, with a better push of northeasterly winds inland along the lakeshore from a lake breeze late in the morning into the early afternoon. CMiller && .MARINE... Issued 1120 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Lingering gusty winds this evening, but will gradually diminish overnight as high pressure builds into the Upper Great Lakes region Wednesday and Thursday. Still looking at gusty northeast winds through midweek, especially over the southern half of the lake and building waves along the western lakeshore. High pressure continues to build to as it lifts northeastward across Ontario and Quebec Friday through the weekend with easterly winds persisting across Lake Michigan. Expecting winds to increase during this timeframe as well with a broad low pressure trough setting up over the Plains. Wagner && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...7 PM Wednesday to 10 AM Thursday. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...7 PM Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  873 FXUS66 KOTX 201124 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 424 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - 10-30% chance of pop up showers and isolated thunderstorms northeastern WA and north Idaho Wednesday afternoon. - Conditions trend drier and warmer through the workweek regionwide, with periodic breezy winds for the Cascades and central WA. - 90% chance for a cooling trend into early next week with chances for precipitation and breezy conditions. && .SYNOPSIS... Showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue Wednesday afternoon in northeast Washington and north Idaho. Precipitation chances decrease and afternoon highs trend warmer through the workweek, climbing into the high 70s and 80s by Friday and continuing through the weekend. Breezy winds are expected at times through the Cascade gaps and across the western Columbia Basin. There is high confidence for cooler and unsettled conditions to return early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Sunday: A shortwave in southern Alberta will bring a dry cold front from the north Wednesday evening. There will be a 10- 30% chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms in northeast Washington and north Idaho this afternoon as a 110 kt jet streak dives in from central BC and into north central Washington. Instability will be maximized around the ID/MT border in the late afternoon with around 300-600 J/kg of surface based CAPE. Farther west in northeast Washington, drier boundary layer conditions will lead to higher cloud bases thus less available surface based CAPE. Effective bulk shear will be weak around 15-20 kt so expect single cells. Main risks with these cells will be gusty outflows up to 30 mph, isolated lightning, and small hail around pea size. Farther west this afternoon and early evening, there will be elevated fire weather conditions with dry and breezy north winds 10-15 mph down the Okanogan valley, eastern Waterville Plateau, and northern Basin. Behind this system, the Inland NW will be mild with above normal 500 mb heights through Saturday thanks to high pressure off the coast. Temperatures will climb from the upper 60s to low 80s today to the high 70s to upper 80s by Friday and through the weekend. Sunday through Wednesday: Changes are coming as the ensemble clusters indicate a 90% chance of a trough in the Gulf of Alaska diving south towards the Pacific NW Sunday and Monday. This will bring a cooling trend early next week and chances for rain and high elevation snow. There is still a 3000 ft spread for the 10th to 90th percentile snow levels in the Cascades Monday and Tuesday. The colder solutions have snow levels around 3500-4500 ft and the warmer solutions having snow levels around 6500-7500 ft. This period will need to be monitored for folks headed out into the high backcountry for potential light snow. /db && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFs: VFR conditions expected through the period. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will spark across northeast Washington and north Idaho again Wednesday afternon with breezy outflow gusts 20 to 30 knots. Winds will be be breezy from the southwest at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE this afternoon with gusts 15 to 20 knots with a gradual shift to the north and then the northeast in the later afternoon with a dry front passage from the north. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions the next 24 hours. There is low confidence in any showers or thunderstorms moving over a TAF site, so this was left out of the TAFs for now. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 70 43 71 46 76 49 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 68 42 71 47 74 49 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Pullman 66 41 68 44 73 46 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 71 46 74 48 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 73 37 76 43 79 46 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 67 40 70 45 73 47 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 67 41 72 45 75 47 / 30 20 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 77 48 78 48 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 77 53 78 54 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 77 47 78 50 82 54 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$  996 FXUS64 KAMA 201127 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 627 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Thunderstorms will be possible today. There is a chance for some storms to be severe with large hail being the main threat. Thunderstorm chances will be daily from Thursday through Tuesday. Some storms Thursday and Friday could be severe with large hail and damaging winds. Some fog or mist may occur Thursday morning alongside shower and thunderstorm activity. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday night) Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 H500 troughing continues through the short term period. Today, H500 winds will strengthen and create upper level forcing for thunderstorms later this afternoon. Low to mid level moisture profiles are strongest further south of the High Plains, though sufficient Theta-E for convection should extend all the way to the Oklahoma Panhandle based off Tuesday's model guidance. Overnight surface winds will veer from northeast to southeast. South to southeasterly wind flow will also aid in moisture transport into our CWA. Tomorrow, theta-e profiles remain generally high across the region. Surface wind flow remains south to southeasterly and measurable QPF remains spread across the combined Panhandles. The highest concentration of rainfall remains forecast to occur tonight through Thursday morning. 00Z CAMs suggest that showers and thunderstorms are more likely to advance from the Southern Plains than off the high terrain in New Mexico. Concerns are still present that pockets of subsidence will exist as showers move into the Panhandle region. This will lend to a more scattered than widespread storm mode; and given the convective nature, not every location will receive equivalent rainfall totals. SBCIN will still be present by the time storms arrive in the early afternoon. MLCAPE is expected to be higher than SBCAPE across the area; therefore, elevated storms are anticipated and inhibition will be overcome since parcels will be lifting above the cap. Steep mid- level lapse rates and sufficient 0-6 km bulk shear will create an environment conditionally favorable for severe storms with hail as the primary hazard. The main weakness to this setup is the lack of quality MLCAPE. Instability will be highest across the southwestern Texas Panhandle with values over 1,000 J/kg possible. Storms that move into this zone will have the highest chance of becoming severe. Cloud coverage is expected to be extensive across the High Plains today, with little breaks from cover to allow for substantial day time heating. Given these conditions, highs will be below average for this time of year ranging from the 60s to lower 70s. Lows this morning will be in the 40s with some lower 50s likely in the southeastern Texas Panhandle. Tonight into Thursday morning, isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue though this period. Mesoscale parameters are expected to be unfavorable for night time convection to become severe. Mist and some fog may also be present alongside the shower activity given the moisture through the region. Cloud coverage will remain high through much of the day, but there may be a window of clearing Thursday afternoon from west to east. This will allow highs to reach the 70s and create enough heating for instability to increase. The most recent CAMs display thunderstorms forming off the high terrain once again, but this time holding together as the move east into the Panhandles. Storms tomorrow are expected to be surface based with CAPE values between 1,500 - 2,000 J/kg. The highest effective shear is expected across the northwest combined Panhandles, but favorable SBCAPE and sufficient low and mid-level lapse rates may allow for a the conditional severe threat to exist further south of our northwest zone. Rangel && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Upper level troughing continues through much of the long term period. High temperatures will steadily return to average values heading into the weekend. Friday to Sunday expect 70s to lower 80s. Monday and beyond current trends suggest we return to the mid 80s. The potential for severe thunderstorms still exits in the east on Friday; however, concerns remain prevalent on dryline placement and how diffuse it may be by the time convective initiation is expected to occur. The NBM remain set on +50% PoPs Saturday afternoon, but as we head into next week, we may see a decline for rain chances across the CWA. Rangel && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions are starting the 12Z TAF period. Starting around 14Z for KAMA and closer to 21-00Z Thursday for KDHT/KGUY, MVFR/IFR cigs expected and will remain so through the remainder of the TAF period. A PROB30 group was added to KAMA at 21Z for TSRA potential. VCSH conditions more likely for KDHT/KGUY between 18Z and 00Z Thursday. Overall winds will be out of the east and southeast at 5-15 kts with higher gusts at times. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...29  945 FXUS66 KLOX 201126 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 426 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 .SYNOPSIS...20/1210 AM. Light offshore flow will continue this morning and will bring one more sunny and warm day. Beginning Thursday there will be a return to cooler May Grey conditions which will last through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...20/229 AM. Not much in the way of weather for the short term (or the long term for that matter). At the upper levels the base of a weak pos tilt trof will be over Srn CA with hgts around 576 dam. At the sfc there will be weak offshore flow this morning but then there will be increasing onshore flow through Friday both to the east and north. By Friday the onshore push will be moderate to strong. Skies will be clear today. Some low clouds will develop tonight but will likely only affect the Central Coast and the LA county coast. By Friday most of the csts and some of the lower vlys will wake up to low clouds. The SBA south coast will have a local offshore push and this should keep that area stratus free. Aside from the stratus and some high clouds Thursday night skies will be mostly clear. Today will be the warmest day with most areas gaining 1 or 2 degrees on ydy's very warm readings. Most csts will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s with the furthest inland coastal areas seeing upper 80s. The vlys will sizzle with reading a couple degrees either side of 90. These max temps are about 10 degrees over normal. The switch to onshore flow will bring 4 to 8 degrees of cooling to the area both Thursday and Friday. This cooling will bring below normal temps to the near shore areas and near normal temps over the rest of the csts and vlys. There will be weak offshore winds this morning but the rest of the period will have standard afternoon sea breezes. One exception to this may be southwest Santa Barbara County where a 2-4mb offshore gradient during the overnight hours will likely create nightly Sundowners with winds gusting between 25 and 40 mph at times, particularly tonight and Thursday night. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...20/229 AM. Very May like weather will be the norm for the 4 day xtnd period. Saggy-baggy troffing will cover most of the state through the period. At the sfc there will be moderate to strong onshore flow to the east and weak to moderate onshore flow to the north. There will be a good dose of night through morning low clouds across most of the coast and many vly areas every day. Due to the strength of the onshore flow some beaches may not clear at all. The strong onshore flow in the afternoon will generate stronger than normal sea breezes as well as gusty west winds in the Antelope Vly. Additionally the western portion of the SBA south coast will see varying degrees of north winds each evening. Most areas will cool 1 or 2 degrees each day except perhaps 2 to 4 degrees on Tuesday. Most csts will see max temps in the mid 60s to mid 70s each day with upper 70s to lower 80s in the vlys. Max temps will mostly end up a few degrees below normal across the csts/vlys and the mtns and far interior will end up a few degrees over normal. && .AVIATION...20/1125Z. At 0835Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a sfc based inversion with a top of 900 ft with a temperature of 26 C. High confidence in CAVU TAFs. There is a 20% chance of 5SM FU at KVNY. KLAX...High confidence in CAVU TAF. Good confidence that any east wind component will be AOB 5kt. KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF. No wind issues expected. && .MARINE...20/219 AM. High confidence in current forecast. Through this weekend, winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels, with a few exceptions of local SCA level gusts during the afternoons and evenings. Across the outer waters south of Port San Luis, local gusts to SCA levels will be possible each afternoon/evening through Friday, and again on Sunday. For the inner waters along the Central Coast south of Port San Luis, off the coast of Point Dume, across the San Pedro Channel, and in the Santa Barbara Channel, local gusts to SCA levels will be possible this afternoon through early evening. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...Lund SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  028 FXUS63 KFSD 201128 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 628 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost and freeze conditions continue this morning with temperatures falling into the 30s across the area. Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory remain in effect until 8 AM CDT. - Very patchy fog this morning may reduce visibility to below one mile at times. Fog dissipates by mid morning. - Scattered showers return this afternoon mainly west of the James River Valley with light accumulations expected. - Cooler conditions continue this week. Another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms is expected from Thursday afternoon through Friday. Severe weather not expected. However, some ensemble guidance suggests up to a 40 percent chance for a half an inch of rain during this time. && .UPDATE... Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Calm winds and mostly clear skies are allowing temperatures to plummet into the mid 30s to lower 40s, with lows still expected to fall into the lower/mid 30s across the area. Freeze Warning for portions of the US Hwy 14 corridor and Frost Advisory elsewhere remain on track. A couple of sites across northwestern IA and southeastern SD have developed fog early this morning, leading to visibility below one mile at times. Expect fog to lift by mid morning. Forecast for the rest of the day remains on track as the next mid level waves moves out of NE. CAMs still show some showers west of the James River later today into tonight, with some weak instability through the saturated layer. Dry sub cloud layer with bases around 5k ft might limit how much reaches the surface, especially with surface high pressure meandering east today. Highs warm into the lower/mid 60s with increasing clouds. This is about 10 degrees below normal for late May. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Cool high pressure settles into the area tonight and will bring a very good chance for temperatures tall to or below 35 for most of the area with temperatures at or below freezing possible north of I- 90. Thus a freeze warning is in place for highway 14 and nearby locations in SD with a frost advisory for the remainder of the area. Isolated pockets of fog will be possible early Wednesday morning but at this time it does not appear as though it will become more widespread. A weak wave will move through the area on Wednesday which could bring a few sprinkles but overall should mainly be an increase in mid level clouds. Otherwise slightly more mild temperatures are expected as southerly flow develops and brings highs back into the 60s for most locations. Another weak wave moves across NE on Thursday and could bring some light showers to the Missouri River corridor into northwest IA. Precipitation amounts will be light as moisture with the system is very limited. A bit stronger and more negatively tilted system will swing through on Friday bringing the next best chance for rainfall. Instability very minor with CAPE values generally 500 J/kg or less. The model soundings do indicate the potential for some efficient rainfall however so maybe some half inch or so amounts will be possible. The latest ensemble output indicating about a 10 to 30 percent chance for more than a half an inch and the latest Nam is indicating a couple of areas with more than a half an inch. Long story short, only minor impacts expected with no severe weather. As this system moves northeast and out of the area a few lingering showers will be possible on Saturday, but warmer temperatures will begin to work into the region. Sunday through the middle of next week will see troughiness to the west and ridging to the east, leaving the area in warmer southerly flow. While there is very little agreement, there should be a couple of weaker waves that could bring showers and thunderstorms to the area, but for now confidence is too low to include in the forecast. Otherwise highs should be in the 80s with lows mainly in the 50s Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 619 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Patchy fog has developed this morning, reducing visibility below one mile at times. Outside of far southeastern SD and through northwestern IA, vis below one mile has been fairly brief or sporadic. Fog lifts through mid morning. Once fog lifts, VFR conditions are expected area wide. A few showers are possible west of the James River later today, but not anticipating any significant impacts. Mid clouds will increase through the latter half of the period. Breezy winds expected west of the James with gust around 20 knots. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for SDZ050-054>071. Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for SDZ038>040-052- 053. MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ071-072-080- 081-089-090-097-098. IA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for IAZ001>003- 012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for NEZ013-014. && $$ UPDATE...SG DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...SG  015 FXUS64 KEPZ 201128 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 528 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 525 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 - Dry, southwest winds continue each afternoon through the work week. Near normal temperatures for mid May. - Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms this weekend, focused mostly over the high terrain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1033 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 ...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Longwave troughing over the Intermountain west can be seen via mid- level water vapor satellite imagery. With most of the energy associated with this trough well off to the north and east, very little in terms of sensible weather impacts will be felt locally on Wednesday. The only thing worth mentioning is that winds on Wednesday will remain in the low-end breezy category with winds out of the southwest at 10-20 mph sustained with isolated gusts to 25-30 mph during the afternoon. Mentioned in previous forecast packages, the weak moisture boundary at the surface will ebb and flow over eastern portions of the forecast area on Wednesday, generally east of the HWY54 corridor. Models guidance shows DP temps in the 40-50 degrees range across far eastern El Paso County, Hudspeth County, and Sacramento Mtn east slopes. But by the afternoon, the dry westerlies will kick into gear and push said low-level moisture back to the east. There are mentionable PoPs (15%) in the grids across far eastern Otero and Hudspeth Counties where an Isolated shower/storm will be possible. Temperatures on Wednesday will remain right around the seasonal average. On Thursday, the dry westerlies win out again as the moisture boundary tries to make another westward push during the morning hours. Expected low-end breezy winds and near seasonal afternoon temperatures. For Friday, an extension, or weak piece of energy will cutoff from the main flow aloft over southern AZ and northern Sonora. As it does so, short wave ridging will build in quickly over the forecast area. Again, expected fair weather conditions with light winds and afternoon temperatures near seasonal for the later part of May. ...MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND... The overall flow aloft this weekend will become weak as the aforementioned cutoff low quickly translates east and upper level ridging develops in it's wake. This will ultimately result in fair weather conditions on Saturday and Sunday with light winds and near seasonal temperatures. For Monday, Memorial Day, the slightest bit of moisture will work it's way into the area with meager but sufficient moisture profiles. As of now, NBM guidance and it's respected global models paint slight chances of rain across portions of the area Monday afternoon and evening. Being 5-6 days out, confidence remains LOW, but something to keep an eye on. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions are expected with SCT-BKN250. Light and variable winds this morning will become SW'LY (190-230) with speeds of 10 to 15 knots and gusts up to 25 knots. Winds will subside after dark. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 525 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Elevated fire weather conditions are expected today as 20-foot winds around 15 MPH will combine with min RH values near 10%. Far eastern areas could see a shower or thunderstorm, but chances are low. Any storms that do form would have a dry lightning and gusty wind risk. Winds will gradually decrease each day toward the weekend with continued dry afternoons. Venting will be excellent. As we approach the weekend and go into next week, increasing moisture will lead to at least low shower and thunderstorm chances. Afternoon highs will be within a couple degrees of normal for this time of year. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 65 88 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 56 83 55 84 / 10 10 0 0 Las Cruces 56 86 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 58 86 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 43 64 43 65 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 58 86 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 51 78 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 56 88 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 54 84 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 64 87 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 56 88 55 89 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 62 91 61 91 / 10 10 0 0 Loma Linda 58 81 58 81 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 61 89 61 90 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 59 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 65 87 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 55 86 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 56 88 54 90 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 61 88 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 58 85 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 48 76 50 77 / 10 10 0 0 Mescalero 47 75 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 44 72 44 73 / 10 0 0 0 Winston 46 78 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 56 83 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 52 85 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 47 78 45 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 50 81 48 82 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 50 84 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 48 80 47 81 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 52 80 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 54 84 54 85 / 0 0 0 10 Hachita 54 84 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 54 84 54 84 / 0 0 0 10 Cloverdale 54 79 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown  193 FXUS64 KHGX 201131 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 631 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected this week. Some may be strong at times. Locally heavy rainfall also possible. - Risk of flooding/flash flooding will need to be monitored, moreso later this week/weekend as rain totals begin adding up and the ground becomes more saturated. - Mariners should be prepared for the multiple rounds of storms. Winds and seas will be higher in and near storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 136 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 First round of storms, one of many to come, is in the process of working its way through the region. Main impact from these were 30-50mph gusts and some localized heavy downpours. Totals have mainly been under an inch, but there's a few spots that've seen 1-4". Expect rainfall to taper off in the morning hours, and we'll likely be stabilized for a good while afterwards so have trimmed POPs back for the remainder of the day. We will remain in an unsettled wx pattern for several days ahead...characterized by persistent western troffiness and us being positioned within a very messy southwesterly flow aloft in advance. With deep Gulf moisture in place (PW's 1.7-2.1"), chances of diurnally driven precip will be in place at a minimum. But stronger impulses embedded in the flow aloft will likely trigger more organized storm complexes at times, along with the potential for some stronger storms & heavier rain rates...which can occur during the nighttime hours as well. Unfortunately in this type of pattern, the problem is actually identifying these disturbances when they're beyond 12-24 hours out, then adjusting for periods of stabilization afterwards. Right now, we're eyeballing the next next stronger impulse and associated widespread precip making its way in from the west toward Thursday morning. Each round will probably bring somewhere in the order of 0.5-3.0" rainfall to the area. In the short term, we should be able to handle another round or maybe two without too many flood issues, other than the typical localized variety. But as days wear on, the precip totals begin adding up, and the ground becomes increasingly saturated...we'll have be be cognizant of the potential for increasing flood/flash flood impacts in the days ahead. Guidance remains wet thru the holiday weekend into early next week as the western mid-upper trof moves into Texas...and possibly another trof dropping into about the same area later next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 600 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning, and continue to move east/southeast across the CWA. Based on the most recent model guidance, storms are expected to move southeast and exit the region by about 16Z. All sites prevail at VFR, with the main concern being the showers and thunderstorms ongoing this morning. Early this afternoon, CIGs are forecast to lower to MVFR for a brief period, before returning to VFR mid-afternoon. Winds will be about 5-10 KTs and variable today as the storms move through, eventually becoming southeasterly this afternoon. Near the end of this TAF period, another round of showers is expected to move in from west to east, although timing and the associated CIGs are uncertain. CIGs should lower, though it is uncertain whether they will lower enough to transition from VFR to MVFR. We will monitor trends in case amendments are needed. && .MARINE... Issued at 136 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are in the process of pushing off the coast. Some 30 to 40 knot gusts are anticipated along the leading band of storms as they pass southward. Winds could be chaotic interms of speed and direction through mid to late morning Wednesday with a localized tight pressure gradient in the vicinity of a MCV. We could see somewhat of a lull in speeds at times in the coming hours, but quickly increase again for 4 to 8 hours Wednesday morning. Have broadbrushed a SCA for all waters to take these factors into account. Otherwise, an unsettled weather pattern will persist into the weekend...with additional rounds of storms likely. Unfortunately, each individual complex will be difficult to time beyond 12 to 24 hours. During breaks in between systems, look for light to moderate onshore winds and 3-5 foot seas. 47 && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected this evening through Monday. The first round will start tonight bringing 1-3" with isolated higher amounts of 5-7+". With PW values exceeding the 90th percentile (~1.7-2.1"), rainfall rates of 2-4"/hr are possible in the heaviest downpours. Anywhere we see these intense rainfall rates, localized flash flooding is possible. That being said, we are not anticipating widespread river flooding just yet; however, this will help prime the soils as we continue with a wet pattern. As the week progresses, multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall on top of primed soils will generate runoff and cause rises on area rivers and watersheds. The greatest threat for heavy rainfall, flash and riverine flooding comes this holiday weekend as intense rainfall rates will bring accumulated values of 4-6+" across most of southeast Texas Saturday into Monday. Widespread action to minor stage flooding is expected with moderate to isolated major stage flooding possible depending on where the most rainfall accumulates. Remember that you can monitor updated river forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/). Landry-Guyton && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 83 70 79 70 / 30 50 90 60 Houston (IAH) 83 73 82 73 / 30 40 80 50 Galveston (GLS) 84 78 84 79 / 40 30 60 60 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-350- 355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...MLG MARINE...47  218 FXUS64 KSJT 201131 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 631 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms possible this afternoon and tonight mainly in Crockett county, Concho Valley and I-10 corridor. - Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms today into Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 149 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 With afternoon heating and a weak embedded shortwaves CAMs are indicating scattered showers to develop this afternoon, particularly in western zones including Crockett county and Concho Valley mid afternoon, which move east in the late afternoon. A second stronger band of showers and thunderstorm is then indicated moving through tonight, beginning in western zones around 10 PM. Some storms could become severe as MUCAPES increase to 2500 J/KG mainly along and south of a Big Lake to Junction line. SPC has a slight risk of severe thunderstorms west of a Sterling City...Mertzon...Sonora line with marginal risk east to Sweetwater, Ballinger to Eden and Junction. The CAMs do indicated the stronger convection in Crockett county and I-10 corridor. Large hail is the main threat. Cooler otherwise today with clouds and storm. Highs range from the mid 70s north to upper 70s south. Lows overnight will be in the lower 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 The upper level pattern shows persistent troughing over the western US, especially over the Desert Southwest and Baja California, for Thursday through this weekend. This places the southern Plains in predominantly southwest flow aloft during this time. Several weak embedded waves will be ejected eastward by the trough into west Texas for Thursday through Saturday. Meanwhile at the surface, southerly to southeasterly flow should continue to advect a moist, unstable airmass into west central Texas over top of the boundary that stalled across Texas on Tuesday. On Thursday there are medium to high (40-75%) chances for showers and thunderstorms. PWAT values of 1-1.5 inches are expected which may lead to more heavy rain and flooding concerns, especially across eastern counties. Chances for storms look lower on Friday after the first upper-level wave passes and the aforementioned surface boundary lifts northward to the central Plains. The upper-level trough over the Baja will move eastward into Texas on Saturday while the surface front drops southward into west Texas. Afternoon thunderstorm chances should increase again for Saturday and Sunday along and ahead of this front. Models show this upper low potentially becoming a weak cutoff low over east Texas for early next week while another upper trough approaches from the western US. This setup would keep our neck of the woods in an active pattern with chances for thunderstorms for Monday and Tuesday. The risk of severe weather is difficult to determine at this time until the picture becomes a bit clearer. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 602 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 LIFR and IFR stratus has developed over all but KSOA, KJCT along the I-10 corridor this morning. Expect KSOA and KJCT to fall back to at least MVFR at times this morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon, mainly at KSJT and KSOA, but isolated thunderstorms may also affect the rest of the terminals. A larger complex of storms will move in late evening from west to east, with IFR ceilings after midnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 76 63 78 63 / 30 60 70 10 San Angelo 77 62 80 63 / 50 70 40 20 Junction 80 63 80 63 / 60 80 50 20 Brownwood 77 63 77 62 / 40 70 70 20 Sweetwater 75 62 78 63 / 40 60 50 10 Ozona 78 62 81 63 / 60 70 30 30 Brady 77 63 77 63 / 40 70 60 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...04  289 FXUS64 KBMX 201133 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 633 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 618 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026 - Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through the end of the week, with the greatest chance for heavy rainfall in northwest areas. - Muggy conditions and high temperatures will create a minor to moderate daily heat risk across Central Alabama. && .DISCUSSION... (Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1106 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing off to our west ahead of an approaching cold front. CAMs continue to hint at this activity dissipating as it nears the MS/AL stateline. If any of this activity does make it into the area, it will be across our northwest areas. The aforementioned front will stall across the state tomorrow and linger through the end of the work week. Meanwhile, southwesterly flow aloft will guide several H5 impulses through the region. This will lead to elevated chances for showers and storms through the end of the week. Each day will feature diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail. The majority of this activity will be pulse-like storms as shear profiles are not too impressive. Greatest chances each day will be across our northern areas where low level moisture convergence will be maximized along the stalled boundary. The boundary retreats back to the north over the weekend, leaving a plume of moist air in place across the region. Bouts of H5 energy will continue to stream across the southeast, leading to increased chances for showers and storms daily. Select forecast soundings depict a nearly saturated atmospheric column and a deep warm cloud depth. This would help promote periods of heavy rainfall at times. Rainfall amounts have trended up recently with 2-3" forecast across our northwest areas. Areas back to our southeast will see around 1" or less. With that said, pockets of higher amounts are likely, especially if these storms turn into efficient rainfall producers. Latest LREF guidance suggests a low (20-30%) chance for amounts over 3". Increased cloud cover will knock a few degrees off our highs for the rest of the week with temperatures generally settling into the mid 80s daily. Those across our southeastern areas will remain near 90. Lows look to fall into the mid 60s for most. Muggy and warm conditions will lead to a minor to moderate heat risk daily across Central Alabama. This would primarily affect those who are extremely sensitive to heat and without cooling/hydration. 95/Castillo && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026 VFR conditions are expected through much of the 24 forecast. MVFR then IFR cigs will develop and spread during the late night hours after 6z in advance of our system. Light and variable winds early this morning will become south-southwest 5-10kts during the day ahead of the boundary as well. A moderate chance for showers is anticipated for this afternoon into tonight as convection will move in/develop ahead of a surface boundary. Only confident enough to mention TS for AUB in the late afternoon and evening, will hold off at the other terminals for now with only an SHRA mention. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... A stalled cold front and continued bouts of upper level energy will keep rain chances elevated through the end of the week. MinRH values will generally remain over 50% daily. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected over the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 87 64 84 64 / 60 50 70 70 Anniston 86 64 84 65 / 60 50 50 50 Birmingham 87 67 85 67 / 20 50 60 60 Tuscaloosa 87 68 86 68 / 20 50 60 70 Calera 89 66 86 66 / 20 40 50 50 Auburn 89 68 87 68 / 50 30 30 20 Montgomery 89 68 88 68 / 40 40 30 20 Troy 89 68 88 67 / 50 40 20 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95/Castillo AVIATION...08  369 FXUS61 KCLE 201137 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 737 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Scattered showers will be slower to diminish today, lingering into this afternoon for some areas. Increased northeast winds on Thursday, especially near the lakeshore and in northwest Ohio. Lowered high temperatures across the northeast on Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Below normal temperatures expected today and Thursday. 2) Widespread rain of 1-1.5 inches is expected late Friday into Saturday with additional chances of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. Area rivers will experience some rises and a couple may experience minor flooding. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... At 4 AM a cold front was located across Lake Erie into Northwest Ohio. This front will push south this morning ushering in a dramatically cooler airmass. High temperatures for the day are occurring early this morning with temperatures falling through midday. Temperatures at 850mb will fall by approximately 10C between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon with afternoon values in the upper 50s to low 60s with a cool north wind. For some areas this will be 25-30 degrees lower than yesterday. In addition, skies will be mostly cloudy as moisture continues to stream northeast overhead. A tightly packed frontal boundary in the 925-850mb layer will trail the surface front into this afternoon, prolonging shower activity. Additional showers will generally be light although some elevated instability will remain into the morning and will maintain a slight chance of a thunderstorm across the south. High pressure will strengthen over the Upper Great Lakes tonight into Thursday. Thursday will have a good deal of sun which will help temperatures recover into the 60s. Locations near Lake Erie will be influenced by a brisk northeast wind off the lake, limiting temperatures to the lower 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will build to New England on Friday as a shortwave trough lifts from the Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley. A good deal of moisture advection will spread north into the region as a surface trough moves north to the Ohio Valley by 00Z Sat. Overrunning will lead to a northward expansion of rain through the day on Friday, becoming widespread by evening. There is high confidence in rain on Friday night, becoming focused more across the east on Saturday as the trough continues north across Lake Erie. Rainfall from Friday and Saturday looks to be in the 1-1.5 inch range but adjustments are likely. This rain will lead to rises on rivers and perhaps a couple rivers experiencing minor flooding. Temperatures on Friday are generally expected to be cool in the 60s, but will be impacted by the timing of rain. The above mentioned trough does lift a warm front north into the area on Saturday with southerly flow and decreasing showers later in the day bringing a return of warmer temperatures, mainly across the southern and western portion of the local area. Dryer air looks to move overhead Sunday morning before moisture and instability increase again during the afternoon. Temperatures continue to climb as the warm front lifts north. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday. && .AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Cold front continuing to push southeast across the area this morning, with a brief period of IFR or lower ceilings along and just behind the front. Ceilings will gradually lift through MVFR and eventually to VFR from north to south through this afternoon as drier air filters in, though it will be a gradual process especially farther south. Occasional showers and light rain will be around through this afternoon, ceiling restrictions will be more common but some MVFR visibility is possible too. Showers will be most focused south of TOL-CLE-ERI (though CLE will see some this morning) and gradually decrease this afternoon into this evening as drier air filters in. Winds will be out of the north-northeast at close to 10kt today and this evening, decreasing a bit tonight. Outlook...Non-VFR expected at times in rain late Friday through Saturday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms with brief non-VFR again possible Sunday afternoon and evening. && .MARINE... Winds are quickly turning north-northeast early this morning as a cold front crosses the lake. Winds will briefly increase to around 15kt across the western and central basins this morning, which will briefly build waves to 2-4 feet with those waves being driven towards the shore. Winds briefly lull this afternoon. A stronger pressure gradient is expected Thursday into Friday as high pressure slides north and northeast of Lake Erie. Winds will turn northeast tonight and increase to 15-20kt. Winds will remain northeast and increase further to 20-25kt at times Thursday and Thursday night. Winds gradually turn more easterly and then southeasterly Friday and Friday night, remaining elevated at 15-25kt until late Friday night or early Saturday. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements will be needed for most or all nearshore waters beginning overnight tonight or early Thursday. Will not hoist those with this package but they will be coming today at some point. Looking ahead to the holiday weekend, generally southerly winds may be elevated enough to cause issues for smaller craft on Saturday. Winds will trend lighter for Sunday and Monday and eventually come around to the northwest. It will be unsettled with periods of rain and perhaps some thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday, with a drying trend likely by Monday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...10 AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...Sullivan  349 FXUS64 KBRO 201136 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 636 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 634 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Key Messages: * Day-to-day or near day-to-day chances for showers and thunderstorms is expected through next weekend and possibly beyond amid a major shift in the weather pattern. * Strong to severe thunderstorms along with heavy rainfall and localized flooding is possible through next weekend. * There is a low-medium chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday morning; greatest chances over the Northern Ranchlands. * The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has all of Deep South Texas under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms with the exception of northern Jim Hogg and Zapata counties which is under a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5). * The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has our northwestern sections under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall Wednesday evening/night and all of Deep South Texas under a Marginal Risk for both Thursday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1042 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An increasingly active/wet weather pattern signifying a major pattern change from dry to wet remains the primary weather concern through the forecast period or through early next week. Through tonight and into Wednesday morning, we're tracking trends and the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop as ongoing convection over Central Texas propagates southward along an outflow boundary. As of this update, there remains a low-medium (20- 60%) chance/confidence for showers and thunderstorms to develop and impact our region. As far as timing, the estimated time of arrival for storms is expected to be somewhere between the hours of 3-9 AM CDT Wednesday morning. One of the primary uncertainties is whether or not the MCSs/complexes of storms upstream across Central Texas will maintain it's momentum as it propagates southward through tonight into Wednesday morning. Some of the latest models favors a more eastward placement suggesting that most of the activity will pass to our northeast (i.e. Coastal areas of Corpus Christi) by Wednesday morning with maybe some stratiform showers/isolated thunder developing along or immediately behind the outflow boundary. Capping and the time of day could also serve as limiting factors in the magnitude of storms, especially further south along the Rio Grande Valley. That said, the best chances are across the Rio Grande Plains and the Northern Ranchlands tonight through Wednesday morning. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has maintained a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms though tonight into Wednesday morning for all of Deep South Texas with the exception of northern Zapata and Jim Hogg Counties, which are under a Slight Risk. A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall has been applied to northern Brooks, jim Hogg, and Zapata counties. We'll continue to monitor trends through tonight and update as necessary. Wednesday through early next week, day-to-day or near day-to-day rain chances is expected. Driving this active pattern is an active southwest flow aloft sub-tropical jet in which multiple impulses/shortwave energies tracking over the Sierra Madre, and a nearby frontal boundary to our north. Persistent southerly flow near the sfc will continue to pool in deep tropical moisture helping to maintain high atmospheric water content through early next week. This is justified with sample maximum precipitable water (PWAT) values between 1.80-2.50 inches, some 1-3 STDEVs above normal and above the 90th percentile of sounding climatology for mid to late May. Furthermore, high instability values will be present through this week with steep mid level lapse rates between 6.5-8.0 C/km, SBCAPE values between 2,000-4,000 J/kg, MLCAPE values between 1,000-2,000 J/kg, a moderately to very unstable atmosphere with Showalter values ranging between -2 and -6. All in all, the combination of a favorable mid-upper level 500 mb steering pattern, high atmospheric moisture content, and high instability will support a noticeable change to a wetter/active weather pattern through the remainder of this week and possibly beyond. The best chances for rain this week looks to be on Thursday and then again over the weekend (i.e. Friday night through Sunday). Wednesday evening/night, 30-50% PoPs exist primarily along and west of IH-69C/US-281. Thursday-Thursday night, 30-60% chances exists with widespread categorical chances (50-60%) for showers and thunderstorms exists during the day on Thursday, and over the Northern Ranchlands and areas along and west of IH-69C/US-281. Meanwhile, 30-50% chances exists over the mid-lower Rio Grande Valley on Thursday. Friday night through Sunday, PoPs range between 40-70%. Additional chances (to a lower extent; between 20-50%) exists through early next week. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible given the atmospheric and forcing ingredients highlighted above. However, heavy rainfall will be the primary threat. Given the high atmospheric moisture content available, heavy rainfall and instances of flooding is possible through next weekend. This is especially true for slow moving thunderstorms that repeatedly track over the same areas. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has our northwestern section (i.e. Zapata, Jim Hogg, Starr, and northwestern Brooks) under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall for Wednesday Night and all of Deep South Texas under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall for both Thursday and Saturday. Through Saturday, quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) or rainfall amounts are still expected to range between 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. The rain to come will certainly prove to be beneficial, helping to further improve the D1 (Moderate) to D2 (Severe) Drought status across the region. Temperature-wise, the combination of the heat ridge relaxing and day-to-day storm chances will allow for temperatures to run near normal levels for late May. Through early next week, high temperatures will generally range between the upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight lows will run slightly above normal with readings mainly in the 70s (lower 80s Cameron County and over SPI). && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A TEMPO has been included in the TAFs due to the steady progression of a squall line of showers and thunderstorms from the north. Otherwise, MVFR to VFR will prevail through the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1042 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Adverse (Small Craft Exercise Caution) conditions will persist through Thursday evening. Friday through early next week, moderate seas along with light to moderate winds are expected. Daily or near daily shower and thunderstorm chances will be around through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 91 79 90 79 / 20 10 50 20 HARLINGEN 92 76 90 75 / 20 20 50 30 MCALLEN 93 77 91 77 / 20 30 50 50 RIO GRANDE CITY 94 74 90 74 / 40 50 60 40 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 85 80 85 81 / 20 10 40 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 78 89 78 / 20 10 50 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$  437 FXUS63 KICT 201139 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 639 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Below average temperatures through Thursday or Friday, warming trend thereafter. - Off-and-on scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms tonight through the weekend (highest chances through Friday night), with additional off-and-on chances Tuesday through next week. Widespread severe weather is unlikely. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES: PREDAWN HOURS--EARLY THIS MORNING...Should see isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms over far southeast KS, underneath the right entrance region of an upper jet, and in vicinity of a persistent 850-700mb trough/moist axis. Marginal instability will prevent strong/severe storms or widespread heavy rainfall. THIS EVENING--WEEKEND...A train of shortwaves traversing Mid-America will support periodic off-and-on shower/thunderstorm chances this evening through the weekend, but likely most widespread tonight through Friday night. While a few strong storms and pockets of heavy rainfall are possible, marginal instability combined with relatively weak shear and forcing should preclude widespread chances for severe weather. The only caveat to that may be late Friday, when increasing instability and mid-level lapse rates may support a few severe storms, especially west-southwest of the forecast area. There's quite a bit of spread between various model solutions on how much rain we'll receive through the weekend. However, the overall consensus supports the greatest potential for one inch or more generally east of the KS Turnpike, with generally less than one inch west of the Turnpike. Of course, locally higher amounts are always possible. NEXT WEEK...Deterministic and ensemble consensus digs a rather deep longwave trough across the western CONUS. Increasing deep moisture and instability should support continued off-and-on shower/thunderstorm chances, especially Tuesday through week's end. While widespread severe weather appears unlikely, there remains some uncertainty on the timing and magnitude of ejecting shortwaves and the speed of the flow aloft, along with available instability. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days. TEMPERATURES: Below average temperatures are likely today through Thursday and possibly even Friday, as Canadian high pressure exerts its influence on Mid-America, along with mostly cloudy skies and periodic precipitation. Daytime highs mostly in the 60s and 70s are expected, with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. As we head into Saturday and beyond, a warming trend back to above average temperatures is expected, as heights/thickness gradually increase over the Heartland. Widespread daytime highs in the 80s are probable by Sunday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 627 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 MVFR and low VFR ceilings (patchy IFR possible over far southeast KS) will linger over southern and southeast Kansas today, within a zone of lingering low-level moisture. Tonight...expect increasing chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms spreading east-northeast across central and eastern Kansas, as a storm system approaches from the west. Severe storms are not expected. Also, MVFR ceilings are expected to gradually expand north to include central KS tonight. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...ADK  426 FXUS65 KBOU 201138 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 538 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unsettled Tuesday through Friday with scattered to numerous showers and a few storms. - Warming and drying trend for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/... Issued at 109 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Cooler temperatures and rain chances are expected to continue through the workweek. An upper level trough will remain to our west/northwest through Thursday. Ahead of the trough, we'll see decent large scale lift. And with the moisture already present thanks to the rain the past few days, this will be enough to produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms during this time. For today, instability is on the lower end (MLCAPEs 400 J/kg or less), so we're not expecting any severe storms this afternoon. The one thing we will need to keep an eye on the potential for landspouts. High res models have a Denver cyclone developing near the urban corridor this afternoon and we do have some weak surface CAPEs in that area, so landspouts are not out of the question. For Thursday, coverage and intensity of storms look a bit higher. Moisture will be ushered into the area at the surface, QG lift ahead of the trough will be stronger, and we could see some breaks in the clouds in the late morning allowing for some surface heating and increased lapse rates/instability for Thursday afternoon. The highest chance of stronger storms will be in our southeastern counties where the better shear and instability overlap. Right now, the main hazard looks like large hail, but we can't rule out an isolated tornado or strong winds as well. The upper level trough will move over the area and off to the northeast overnight Thursday into early Friday. A cold front will also move through overnight, dropping temperatures a few degrees for Friday. Rain chances will continue on Friday as a secondary, weaker trough develops to our northwest and moves over the area late Friday into Saturday. Coverage and intensity of showers and storms will be lower than what we're expecting on Thursday. After that secondary trough moves through, upper level ridging will start to build over the area. A warming trend will begin on Saturday, with highs reaching into the upper 80s for portions of the plains by Monday. The warming trend will be halted on Tuesday as another trough approaches from the west, cloud cover increases, and precip chances return to the mountains and potentially the plains. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday/... Issued at 507 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 A line of showers extends SW to NE over KAPA and just to the south of KDEN. These showers are expected to continue for another couple of hours before moving off to the east. Ceilings this morning have lifted to VFR for our TAF sites, with some lower ceilings still hanging around the area. Showers and storms are forecast to develop between 17Z and 19Z, impacting the terminals for a few hours before they progress eastward. Once the main push of showers and storms move east, there is a low chance that we could see some additional activity into the early evening, but models seem to be trending away from that solution. Winds this afternoon will be tricky, as high res models have a Denver cyclone setting up near the area, so we could see some variation in wind directions at KAPA and KDEN as the cyclone sets up. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AP AVIATION...AP  466 FXUS63 KGLD 201140 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 540 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Occasional shower chances through the rest of the week. - Marginal severe risk Thursday afternoon and evening, primarily in Colorado, but could see that into northwest Kansas through the evening hours. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 255 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Through Mid-Afternoon: Guidance continues to indicate that low- level moisture return assoc/w modest SE to SSE low-level flow will be a slow/gradual affair that's confined to eastern Colorado, mainly western portions of Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties where 850 mb dewpoints around -1 to -3C (this morning) are progged to increase to 2 to 7C during the late afternoon (21-00Z). Mid-level (700-500 mb) warm advection in advance of an upper level wave.. a modest 250-350 mb trough / shear-axis progressing slowly east across the central Rockies.. may foster the development of light showers over portions of the area later this morning, mainly west and north of Goodland between ~12-18Z (6a-12p) when/where mid-level warm advection -may- be strong enough to capitalize on/utilize a very meager amount of elevated instability (50-100 J/kg MUCAPE). Expect broken/overcast cloud cover over most or all of the area and 10 to 20 mph SE winds with highs in the upper 50's to mid 60's. Late Afternoon-Toninght: A modest (1013-1015 mb) lee cyclone will develop in southeast CO this late this afternoon into tonight as the aforementioned upper wave emerges from the Rockies and progresses east across the High Plains. Guidance suggests that increasing low-level moisture will foster marginal diurnal destabilization (~250 J/kg mlcape) along/west of a line from Akron-Limon-Lamar this afternoon, when/where low-level convergence in vicinity of the developing lee cyclone will aid in the development of scattered showers/storms that progress downstream/east toward the CO-KS border by sunset (00-02Z), at which point low-mid level (850-600 mb) warm advection on the E and NE periphery of the developing lee cyclone and modest DPVA attendant the upper wave may assist in the development of additional showers/storms over northwest KS this evening. While recent (06Z 05/20) runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST broadly agree that convection will develop in CO late this aft and progress east across northwest KS this evening and overnight, they vary considerably w/regard to convective coverage.. the NAM NEST being the least-agressive solution. While gusty winds may accompany any storms, severe weather is not anticipated. Expect lows in the lower-mid 40's. -Vincent Thursday will see a somewhat similar scenario, but shifted northward as the northern Rockies upper low strengthens and a stronger shortwave trough moves across eastern Colorado at the time of peak heating. The instability axis will shift further east and the REFS has a corridor of 1000-1500 j/kg from Limon to Fort Morgan along with 35kts of deep layer shear. While the surface-based instability will rapidly weaken after 00Z, MUCAPE of at least 500 j/kg as well as deep layer shear of 40kts are forecast as the showers and thunderstorms move in from Colorado Thursday night. The parameters suggest a marginally severe storm or two will be possible with some pockets of MUCAPE up to 1000 j/kg forecast by the NAM through about 06z before weakening. NBM has rain amounts of up to 1" in eastern Colorado Thursday evening with the stronger storms, then around 0.25-0.50" in the rest of the area overnight with rain and isolated storms. The upper trough axis and associated surface cold front will be slowly moving through the area Friday morning with showers and isolated thunderstorms continuing. This morning activity should limitthe afternoon instability, though it is possible some clearing could occur on the western and southern edges of the forecast area. Also will need to see where the front ends up in the afternoon as new convection could develop along it. However, both the GFS and ECMWF currently have the front well to the south, entering Oklahoma, while the NAM is slower and has the front in the southern part of the area. Since this is still a few days out and there will be multiple days of convection which may impact the ultimate timing and location of the front, confidence is low in the details and any potential severe hazards on Friday. Temperatures through the period show little variation with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 110 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Saturday, our region is forecast to be under a weak southwest flow with a weak trough along the Rocky Mountains. Expect mostly sunny skies and a slight warming trend through the beginning of the work week. High temperatures are forecast in the 70s for Saturday and the 80s for Sunday and Monday. Saturday will have a 25-35% chance for showers and thunderstorms across the county warning area (CWA) from weak shortwave passages. After Sunday, we transition to more of a ridge pattern, so expect primarily sunny skies and gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoons for our Colorado counties Sunday and Monday. Warm temperatures continue Tuesday with highs forecast in the 80s. Wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible Tuesday for the western CWA. With relative humidity (RH) values overall trending down and forecast in the low 20s for Tuesday, fire weather potential will need to be monitored through the week. Models are in disagreement on the track and evolution of a surface low off the coast of Baja California that starts to develop late Sunday. If this surface low ends up tracking toward our region, we have potential for an active pattern and severe weather potential late next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 533 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Light rain showers continue to track west to east across the Tri-State area and should bring minor aviation impacts early this morning. Will include some light rain at both terminals through the next few hours before activity departs to the north. This aligns with recent HREF probabilistic guidance. Persistent mid-level stratus should then settle across the area but is expected to remain VFR criteria. Tonight, additional light rain will arrive from the west and utilized HREF probabilities again for timing. This should bring 4-6 hour windows of light rain again before departing. CIGs should lower further late in the period with MVFR or worse conditions likely. Have included a mention of IFR at GLD given high probabilities of low CIGs coincident with some signal for reduced visibility. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...Rhoades AVIATION...WFO LBF/NMJ  479 FXUS64 KMAF 201140 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 640 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 638 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Showers and storms are expected today beginning early this afternoon and continuing into this evening. Any strong to severe storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. We will also monitor for flash flooding. - Shower and storm chances continue through this weekend as additional disturbances move overhead. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 156 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 The cold front that moved through the area on Tuesday has washed out across the southern half of the region and will be one of the catalysts for convection during the day today. In addition to the front, plenty of moisture and instability will be available to help some storms become strong to severe. Forecast soundings continue to show plenty of shear, 1000-2000J/kg of MUCAPE, and steep lapse rates favorable for large hail and damaging winds in the most organized storms. Hi-res ensembles show activity getting an early start on the day around or just afternoon with convection developing near the Davis Mountains/Pecos River Valley and moving east into the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau. Coverage increases during the afternoon and some upscale growth into multicellular clusters or lines of storms may occur before exiting the region tonight after sunset. Daytime highs to the north of the stalled front will struggle to reach out of the 70s as low clouds keep temperatures from moving much. To the south and west of the front, mainly west of the Pecos River, highs will reach into the 80s with 90s along the Rio Grande. Tonight sees a lull in convection as the daytime activity decays or moves off to the east. The dryline establishes itself west of Midland/Odessa near or just west of the TX/NM border. The dryline's position and any leftover boundaries from today will impact where any convection develops on Thursday. Coverage overall will be lower as the upper level support available for storms today will be weaker for Thursday. Similar to today though, large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards with any severe storms that develop. Localized flash flooding will also be possible, particularly from Reagan County southward into eastern Pecos and portions of Terrell County that saw significant rainfall on Tuesday. Highs on Thursday remain below normal, but increase into the 80s for most. -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 156 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Thursday night sees activity once again decay and move off to the east of our area. Friday and through the weekend, a similar pattern continues where daytime convection will be dependent on where the dryline sets up in the CWA and the timing of any upper level disturbances that move in from the west. Medium to long range guidance shows this occurring roughly each day Friday through Sunday with a decrease in activity for Monday. Temperatures through the weekend will hover near or just below normal in the 80s to low 90s. Unsurprisingly, Rio Grande Village and the surrounding low Desert of Big Bend may still reach the century mark on those days, but temperatures will be otherwise unremarkable for late May. Given the isolated to scattered nature of each day's showers and storms, rain amounts will be tough to pin down. Rain chances continue evening into the middle of next week, but that portion of the forecast remains subject to change. -Stickney && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Near MVFR CIGs have moved into the region at most terminals and will be a fixture for the morning before lifting or dissipating. TS/TSRA are possible this afternoon, but confidence remains low to include mention at all sites with this issuance. Easterly flow shifts southeasterly during the day with sustained winds between 10-15kts. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible with any nearby convection. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 74 59 81 61 / 60 50 30 10 Carlsbad 82 59 90 60 / 30 30 10 10 Dryden 84 64 86 65 / 50 50 10 20 Fort Stockton 83 61 88 63 / 50 50 20 10 Guadalupe Pass 79 59 81 59 / 20 10 0 0 Hobbs 73 55 84 56 / 60 20 20 10 Marfa 85 52 82 50 / 40 20 20 20 Midland Intl Airport 75 60 83 62 / 70 30 10 10 Odessa 75 60 84 63 / 70 30 10 10 Wink 80 60 88 61 / 50 30 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...93  530 FXUS63 KDDC 201142 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 642 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Exceptionally pleasant latter half of the week - Rain chances (60-90%) for SW Kansas tomorrow night into Thursday morning - Warming back up into the 80s next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 The synoptic pattern aloft is fairly unnoteworthy aside from a positively tilted low-pressure tough stretching down into southern Nevada. Close to the surface, weak low pressure has built up over the Great Plains portion of the CONUS. This evening will continue to see winds ease and temperatures drop via radiative cooling. Cloud cover building tomorrow afternoon will keep highs from getting too warm with the majority of SW Kansas staying in the 60s for a maximum temperatures. The significant focus of the forecast cycle comes tomorrow night will widespread precipitation expected. Models and ensembles continue to prog subtle moisture advection up into western Kansas. Very marginal chances begin via ensembles after noon. The chances uptick significantly after sunset with scattered showers descending southeastwardly. Forecast soundings have precipitable water values between 0.5-1". Despite CAMs holding a more scattered precipitation regime, ensembles keep amounts from 0.1- 0.25" with a maxima near 0.5 inch around Garden City. Instability is expected to be minimal to start with only benign showers forecast initially. Ensembles are very optimistic with rainfall chances through the event at or above 90% for the entire CWA, although it appears possible that some areas may only see amounts near a trace. While most of the first round of precipitation is expected to occur before noon Thursday, recent CAM runs have a convective signal near the Colorado border and weakening as it moves eastward into the evening potentially lasting into Friday. Again with the cloudiness and rain, highs again are forecast in the 60s across SW Kansas Thursday. Highs begin warming up on Friday with highs in the 70s, and into the 80s by Sunday. The start of next week will continue the warmer trend in the 80s. The forecast period has occasional possibilities for more precipitation, but the chances and agreement is low enough to where it is too uncertain to make declarations. However, in the wetter calmer pattern, minimum relative humidities maintain above 20% to quell most fire weather risk. Other than non-severe precipitation, little in the extended period is noteworthy. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A light and variable wind will gradually become southeasterly through the day. The sustained southeast wind will bring in more moisture in the low levels, and this will foster development of showers and thunderstorms, especially later on this evening. We have included a PROB30 group for thunderstorms this evening as a result. VFR flight category much of this period will also gradually transition toward MVFR and IFR in low ceiling toward the end of this TAF period (early Thursday morning). && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KBJ AVIATION...Umscheid  523 FXUS64 KCRP 201141 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 641 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 641 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 -Line of storms will move through the area early this morning bringing heavy rainfall and strong winds. - Multiple rounds of storms are expected through the upcoming weekend. At least a marginal to slight risk of flash flooding each day, with a potentially increasing risk of river flooding later in the period as rainfall totals add up. - Hazardous beach conditions persist for one more day, with a high risk of rip currents expected along the Middle Texas Coast and a chance for minor coastal flooding with today's high tide cycle. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 127 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Synoptic Overview: A very active and wet spring pattern will prevail for at least the next 7 days as the subtropical jet is positioned over South Texas, directing a procession of low to medium amplitude mid-lvl disturbances over the area. At the surface, a nearly stationary cold front is analyzed over Central Texas early this morning. This boundary should remain north of our area, and then eventually lift back northward Thursday into Friday. The overall low-lvl synoptic pattern will be characterized by warm and moist S-SE flow through Saturday, although the presence of outflow boundaries/cold pools and associated mesoscale gradients will likely complicate the surface picture at times. Forecast Details: The aforementioned pattern will be characterized by elevated rain chances (generally 50 to 80%) more or less every day through early next week. Despite lower than normal predictability due to the progressive/low-amplitude nature of the mid-lvl disturbances, at this point there are a few potentially more impactful periods to highlight within the broader active period. 1.) Early this morning: A progressive MCS (which originally initiated near the stationary front well to our north) is moving through the area early this morning, bringing locally heavy rainfall (1-3 inch totals) and strong to even damaging winds (although current radar trends are not overly impressive). This feature should clear the area around or just after daybreak. 2.) Tonight into Thursday: Convection will likely develop over the higher terrain of NE Mexico this afternoon, and then aided by lift from a low amplitude shortwave will likely progress eastward into the Rio Grande Plains this evening/tonight and then towards the Coastal Plains Thursday morning. While overall this system looks smaller-scale and likely weaker (due to less instability) than this morning's disturbance there is an outside chance at an isolated severe gust and potential hydro concerns (dependent upon this morning's rainfall totals). Guidance loosely favors the southern half our area to experience the highest totals, but given the less organized nature of this disturbance not particularly confident in placement. 3.) Late Friday night into Saturday: The highest amplitude mid-lvl disturbance of the period moves into the area late Friday night into Saturday. Although we are just outside of the CAM range, another MCS with heavy rainfall seems probable to accompany this system. Assuming we will be "primed" due to antecedent rainfall earlier in the period, hydro concerns may become amplified with this period. The aforementioned mid-lvl disturbance looks to cut-off near or just north of our area Sunday into early next week. If this low can progress far enough north/east we would have at least a brief period of somewhat drier conditions as drier filters into the area on its western flank. Conversely, if it stalls more or less overhead we will likely see continued wet conditions into Memorial Day/Tuesday. Temperatures through the entire period will be highly dependent upon convective timing, although assuming the overnight period remains most active, highs should largely run near to just below normal. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 The line of storms from overnight continues to push offshore leaving scattered stratiform rain, though this should be diminishing after 14Z. Conditions then return to VFR this afternoon. By 00Z, the focus shifts to developing thunderstorms off the mountains in northern Mexico moving eastward through KCOT/KLRD though timing of this will be highly dependent on the timing of convective initiation. Thus, PROB30 groups have been added to all terminals for this reason. These will be further refined with TEMPO groups in the upcoming TAF cycles. && .MARINE... Issued at 127 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) easterly-southeasterly winds are expected to prevail through the work week with seas decreasing to 3 to 4 ft by late this afternoon. Several rounds of thunderstorms can be expected through the weekend with the first round expected early to mid morning today. Brief periods of strong winds (greater than 34 kts), elevated seas, and reduced visibility can be expected in storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 89 76 86 75 / 50 40 70 40 Victoria 88 73 84 71 / 50 50 90 60 Laredo 93 72 88 72 / 30 70 80 50 Alice 90 74 87 72 / 50 40 80 50 Rockport 89 78 87 77 / 50 40 70 50 Cotulla 89 71 86 70 / 40 80 70 40 Kingsville 89 75 87 73 / 40 40 80 40 Navy Corpus 86 78 85 78 / 40 40 60 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ245- 343>347-442-443-447. High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ345-442- 443-447. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NC/91 AVIATION...AE/82  598 FXUS63 KFGF 201145 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 645 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy dense fog this morning will briefly reduce visibility to 1/4 mile or less. - Freeze Warning for all areas tonight except west central Minnesota (Frost Advisory) with temperatures widely falling to the low 30s and upper 20s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 644 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 We went ahead and issued an SPS for patchy dense fog as observations are starting to become more frequent, but webcams still show the shallow and isolated nature of it. With sunrise ongoing, the expectation is for things to clear out over the next few hours. UPDATE Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Some guidance is beginning to hint at fog potential along the the eastern edge of the valley tonight once winds go calm with soundings ranging from a 3-5 degree dewpoint spread to a full on low level inversion and ground fog. Unsure whether clear skies prevail with the calm winds or if patchy ground fog develops but even with a worst case scenario would expect isolated pockets as low as a 1/4 to 1/2 mile with more widespread 1-2 mile vis from Fergus Falls north to Hallock and Crookston. Would say that is about a 30% chance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...Synopsis... Upper trough axis currently over the Red River Valley will pull east into the western Great Lakes tonight. The high pressure centered over the western Plains currently will shift into the upper midwest tonight. Another trough will be digging into the Rockies tomorrow night into Thursday, so westerly flow will quickly shift back to southwesterly. The upper trough to our west splits into a northern and southern branch, and ensemble members vary a bit on how exactly they handle it as it moves east. Most solutions do push the trough east over the weekend, with ridging building into the Plains by Memorial Day. Details such as precipitation timing and placement with the trough are low confidence, but there seems to be good agreement on below average temperatures becoming near to above average by the end of the period. ...Frost and freeze headlines... Clouds should clear out as the upper trough moves east, and with high pressure overhead, winds will become light and variable overnight. There will be a good setup for radiational cooling, and dew points currently in the low 30s over southern Manitoba should be down in our area by tonight. Temps should drop to near or below the freezing mark in most locations, with a 60 to 90 percent chance of 32 or lower for much of eastern ND into northwestern MN. Probabilities of less than 32 are much lower for some reason in west central MN from Elbow Lake up to Detroit Lakes, with chances 20 percent or less.Kept Grant, Otter Tail, and western Becker as frost advisory but have the rest of the CWA in a Freeze Warning. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Shallow fog this morning will improve fairly quickly and within the next 2 hours, giving way to VFR conditions. Winds will initially be light and variable this morning but will increase from the south towards the afternoon hours. Once this occurs, winds will remain elevated through the end of the TAF period, with the highest speeds generally in eastern North Dakota, decreasing as you head further east. No other aviation impacts are expected at this time. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ001>009- 013>017-022>024-028-029-032. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ027-030-031- 040.&& $$ UPDATE...Perroux/TT DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...Perroux  741 FXUS63 KGID 201145 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 645 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The Frost Advisory for Valley, Greeley, Sherman, Howard and Nance counties will expire at 8AM this morning. - A handful of showers will move into a few western portions of the area this morning. A few more showers and non-severe storms will move in again later this evening and overnight tonight (35-65% chances, concentrated south of I-80). - Periodic shower/thunderstorm chances will return Thursday and Friday. Most area can expect to see between 0.25-0.5" of precipitation accumulation through Friday night. - Highs today and Thursday will stick in the upper 50s to mid 60s followed by a gradual warming trend back to the 80s by Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Temperatures this morning approaching the mid 30s across a few portions of the area north of I-80 will bring the potential for frost formation. A Frost Advisory remains in effect for Valley, Greeley, Sherman, Howard and Nance counties through 7AM. The cooler temperatures that were observed yesterday will continue to stick around for the next three days as weak surface winds among mostly overcast skies will prevent highs from warming out of the mid 50s to mid 60s. Lows the next 3 nights should continue to fall between the upper 30s to lower 50s, generally only warming a few degrees each night. Higher surface pressure centered over the Plains/Midwest region today and tomorrow will serve as the damper to the surface winds. Light to steady winds out of the east to southeast will last through Thursday. Speeds will primarily stick between 5-10MPH with occasional gusts as high as 20MPH possible. The main story in the short-term will be the potential for precipitation that will come in in the form of several waves of showers and non-severe thunderstorms over the next several days (through Friday night). Starting out this morning with a few showers crawling up from the southwest, another more widespread coverage of showers and weak thunderstorms will push back in later tonight and into early Thursday morning (35-65% chances concentrated south of I- 80). There is generally not enough instability out to threaten any sort of severe weather threat (only 0-200J/kg of CAPE). Aloft, the continuation of intermountain west troughing will keep the area underneath a zone of weak isentropic assent paired with mid- level CVA along the downstream side of the mid-level trough. These features will provide continued support for developing areas of showers and weak thunderstorms across the foothills of the Rockies over the next few days. The waves of showers/storms will continue to track up into portions of central Nebraska/Kansas. Most areas should expected to see between mainly 0.25-0.5+" of precipitation through Friday night. The best individual precipitation chances currently lie overnight Wednesday as well as Thursday night into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Temperatures remain relatively cool today behind the system that resulted in multiple rounds of severe weather over the last 3-4 days. Tonight, temperatures are anticipated to drop into the 30s and 40s, aided by light winds and mostly clear skies under surface high pressure. Clouds are then anticipated to increase early Wednesday morning, which should keep temperatures from dropping much below 35 degrees. Nevertheless, this may result in some frost formation, potentially damaging sensitive plants in areas near/north of Highway 92. The Frost Advisory area is "generous," mainly because we are so far into the growing season already. Many areas, especially in southern parts of Howard, Sherman, and Nance counties, likely will not see any frost impact. Wednesday will remain cool, and rain is expected to slide in from the west as an upper trough pushes into the central Plains. Many areas will remain dry, but western zones could pick up 0.05-0.15". Later Wednesday night into Thursday morning, isolated to scattered showers/t-storms become possible, but instability is very limited and no severe weather is expected. Late Thursday night into Friday, another shortwave is expected to cross the northern Plains, bringing more widespread chances for rain and thunderstorms to the region. The severe threat remains minimal, but this COULD bring some relief to drought- stricken areas of western Nebraska. Low rain chances linger on Saturday, but overall things will trend drier and warmer for the Memorial Day weekend as upper level ridging returns to the north/central Plains. After almost a week of near to below- normal temperatures, 80s are expected to return for Sunday-Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 636 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Clouds moving in this morning will gradually fill the sky for the day, setting bases between 6,000-10,000ft for much of the day. A few light showers can't be ruled out through 18z for KEAR with another shower chance coming later tonight for both sites (mainly after 6z). Winds today will remain fairly light and out of the east to southeast at times. Gusts should stay below 15MPH. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039>041-046- 047. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Stump DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Stump  787 FXUS64 KMOB 201146 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 646 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Rain chances increase throughout the week, especially over the western half of the forecast area. - Localized patchy dense fog will be possible late tonight into Thursday morning and late Thursday night into Friday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Very localized dense fog has developed in locations across the Florida Panhandle this morning. Fog should quickly mix out over the next half our to hour. Use caution when commuting this morning. BB-8 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Light southerly surface winds will occur through the remainder of the week as a surface ridge remains intact across the southeast states and northeast Gulf. Atmospheric moisture will remain moderate with PWATs generally ranging from 1.5 to 2.0 inches. A continuous stream of upper mini-shortwaves moving over the lower Mississippi river in a deep southwesterly flow will result in a steady increase in shower and thunderstorm activity throughout the week, with the highest chances of precipitation occurring along and west of I-65. Isolated to low-end scattered showers and storms are forecast this afternoon across our inland areas, followed by isolated to scattered showers and storms, potentially numerous over southeast Mississippi, for Thursday. Scattered to widespread showers and storms are then expected Friday and Saturday, again with the highest chances occurring along and west of I-65. The light southerly wind flow mentioned earlier persisting all week does maintain some boundary-layer moisture across our area that should result in patchy to areas of late night/early morning fog over the course of the week. Visibilities are expected to lower to between 1 to 3 miles across much of the area late overnight into early morning, with patchy dense fog not being ruled out. Due to low confidence in the specific locations potentially being impacted by areas of dense fog, we will just need to see how thing unfold before needing any Dense Fog Advisories. High temperatures inland will reach the middle 80s to lower 90s today and Thursday. These highs will be about 3 to 6 degrees above normal. Due to the increase in clouds and rain chances Friday and Saturday, highs will return closer to normal values. Lows however will remain steady through Saturday with upper 60s to lower 70s inland and middle 70s along the coast. These lows will be about 6 to 11 degrees above normal. /22 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 LIFR to IFR ceilings and visbys across the I-10 corridor will quickly improve to MVFR then VFR this morning as fog and low stratus quickly mixes out. VFR conditions should persist throughout the day and into the overnight. Scattered showers and storms should develop this afternoon leading to localized reductions in ceilings and visibilities. IFR to LIFR ceilings will likely develop once again across interior portions of the area tonight. Winds will remain light out of the south-southeast throughout the forecast. BB-8 && .MARINE... Issued at 109 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 88 71 86 72 / 10 10 40 40 Pensacola 87 73 86 74 / 10 0 20 20 Destin 85 73 85 75 / 10 0 10 10 Evergreen 91 69 90 69 / 30 20 30 10 Waynesboro 88 69 87 70 / 40 30 60 50 Camden 89 69 88 69 / 20 30 50 30 Crestview 91 68 90 69 / 20 0 10 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  796 FXUS64 KOUN 201146 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 646 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 641 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Cool, below normal temperatures today through Thursday. Near normal temperatures will return by the end of the week through early next week. - Shower and storm chances continue Wednesday through early next week. A few strong to severe storms are possible on Friday and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Wednesday) Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Surface high pressure, centered over the north-central Plains, will continue to provide for northeasterly winds today. Isentropic ascent could lead to patchy drizzle/fog and a few showers this morning. As isentropic ascent weakens this afternoon, ceilings will gradually lift and we may see a little sun. With extensive stratus, afternoon temperatures will only peak in the 60's to 70's. Thompson && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A shortwave embedded within southwest flow aloft, coupled with weak upslope flow, will provide for a low chance of showers/storms again this evening across western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Rain chances will increase overnight and spread across central Oklahoma, with high POPs during the day on Thursday due to the approach of the upper wave. Abundant cloud-cover will keep high temperatures below- average on Thursday (upper 60's to mid 70's) with widespread showers and thunderstorms likely. Given anomalously high precipitable water content, which is prog'd to be well above the 90th percentile, efficient/heavy rainfall appears likely during the day on Thursday. Storm total QPF of 1 to 2 inches is forecast for areas along/east of the I-44 corridor. Locally higher amounts (2-4 inches) are possible with thunderstorms, which will bring the risk of flash flooding. CAMS would suggest this risk is initially southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas in the morning and then southeastern Oklahoma by afternoon. By Friday morning, surface winds return to the south and temperatures climb into the upper 70's to mid 80's. A northern stream trough ejects over the central plains on Friday with the H500 jet maxima passing north of our area. A few models (NAM/GFS) suggest the dryline may advance into portions of W/SW Oklahoma on Friday afternoon, but for now, the model consensus keeps the dryline west of the 100th meridian. Despite this, there is a conditional severe storm risk on Friday afternoon/evening over northwest/western Oklahoma - owing mainly to moderate instability, given meager wind speeds aloft and weak forcing. Hail up to the size of golfballs and severe wind gusts are possible if storm development is realized. Shower and storm chances then spread across the rest of Oklahoma on Friday night with signs of a potential MCS propagating across the area overnight. Thompson && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 The upcoming holiday weekend is forecast to be on the cool-side for Oklahoma standards, with highs in the upper 70's to mid-80's. Shower/storm chances increase Saturday afternoon with precipitation likely by Saturday evening in association with a weak upper trough. Moderate to strong instability could lead to strong to severe storm chances late Saturday. However, organized severe storms could be tough to come by given weak shear. Rain chances generally decrease Sunday through Tuesday, with the higher probabilities over southeastern Oklahoma and the return of seasonable temperatures. Thompson && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 645 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Widespread IFR to LIFR conditions are ongoing this morning. Flightconditions should improve some this afternoon with some locations potentially reaching VFR conditions (KSPS, KLAW, KDUA, KWWR). However, flight conditions will likely deteriorate again tonight. There will be an increasing chance of showers/storms toward the end of the TAF period. Winds will remain generally from the northeast to east. Mahale && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 68 58 70 59 / 20 60 90 50 Hobart OK 71 57 73 58 / 20 60 70 40 Wichita Falls TX 74 60 74 59 / 20 70 80 30 Gage OK 71 52 70 54 / 20 60 60 30 Ponca City OK 67 55 69 58 / 0 50 70 60 Durant OK 78 65 74 64 / 10 50 90 70 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...01 SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...10  862 FXUS63 KBIS 201149 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 649 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near to below freezing temperatures across central and eastern North Dakota early this morning. - Warmer and windy conditions today could lead to near-critical fire weather conditions. - Low to medium chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms across western and north central North Dakota late this afternoon through the evening, then medium to high chances across the western half of the state Thursday through Friday. - Temperatures remain closer to normal through Friday, then warm to well above normal by the end of the holiday weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 649 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 The forecast remains in good shape. Temperatures in the Frost Advisory have mostly risen into the upper 30s to mid 40s, but there are still a handful of locations in the mid 30s scattered throughout the advisory, so will just let it continue for now. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 438 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Early morning surface analysis shows high pressure from the Red River through Lower Missouri River Valleys, with a low pressure trough along the Alberta-Saskatchewan border into northeast Montana. Flow aloft is turning more zonal as a transient mid level ridge precedes a shortwave digging down the Canadian Rockies. The placement of the surface high has allowed temperatures to fall to near or below freezing across the eastern half of the state. Meanwhile, an increase in southerly return flow is keeping temperatures above freezing in the western half of the state, except in a few low- lying, sheltered spots. The Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory remain in good shape. A weak shortwave that appears to be embedded in the mid level ridge is producing light showers aloft, little of which is reaching the ground on account of a very dry low level layer of air. A slight chance of sprinkles remains in the forecast as this feature crosses northern North Dakota this morning. A southeastward advancement of the upstream surface trough will squeeze the pressure gradient over central North Dakota later this morning and afternoon, increasing winds to near 30 mph and gusting to 40 mph. But temperatures are forecast to be much warmer today, with highs ranging from the mid 60s east to mid 70s west. This could lead to near-critical fire weather conditions in parts of western and central North Dakota this afternoon, but the lowest RH of around 20 percent in the southwest is not forecast to overlap with the strongest winds between Highways 83 and 281. By late afternoon today, mid level DCVA is forecast to spread into western North Dakota ahead of a closed low circulation spinning over southwest Saskatchewan. At the surface, a low pressure with an attendant warm front to the east, dryline to the south, and cold front to the southwest is forecast to enter northwest North Dakota at a similar time. CAMs are in agreement on widespread shower and thunderstorm activity initiating closer to the cold front in eastern Montana this afternoon, but also indicate a lower degree of coverage developing into western and north central North Dakota by early evening. There is potential for up to 500 J/kg of CAPE to build just ahead of the dryline, but models are fairly consistent in keeping the buoyancy displaced downstream of stronger shear, and HRRR/RAP soundings show a skinny CAPE profile with equilibrium levels only approaching 25,000 ft. Stronger convection is therefore highly unlikely late this afternoon and evening, but the inverted-v thermodynamic profiles could support gusty winds. Showers and storms are forecast to gradually dissipate late this evening into tonight, which will have milder low temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s. On Thursday, the mid/upper level trough axis is forecast to reorient itself and deepen from southern Saskatchewan to northern Utah, inducing lee cyclogenesis with an inverted surface trough extending northward through the western Dakotas. The inverted surface trough will be the focal axis for high chances of showers Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. There is still some uncertainty on the placement of the inverted trough and associated maximum QPF, but the range has narrowed in scope to as far west as the Montana border and as far east as a line roughly from the Turtle Mountains to the Standing Rock Reservation. The NBM places its averaged maximum QPF axis from around Hettinger to Stanley, with high chances of exceeding 0.25" and low to medium chances of exceeding 0.5". But embedded thunderstorms along a ribbon of up to 1000 J/kg CAPE could produce locally higher amounts, as indicated by the HREF localized probability-matched mean QPF showing pockets of 1-2". Training convection, high deep-layer RH, and precipitable water approaching 75th-90th climatological percentile values near 1 inch could also contribute to enhanced rainfall rates on a localized basis. The mid/upper trough is forecast to pivot into the High Plains on Friday with two distinct vort maxima over southeast Saskatchewan and northeast Colorado, respectively. Numerous showers are likely to persist along the inverted surface trough on Friday, which may only shift slightly to the east. But there is a much lower risk for thunderstorms on Friday as guidance is showing little to no CAPE. There are several potential outcomes for multi-day rain totals depending on how much or little the inverted surface trough shifts around. If it remains nearly stationary all the way through Friday, there could be a narrow corridor of +1 inch amounts surrounded by widespread amounts under a quarter of an inch. If the inverted trough does shift eastward, there could be a broader area or perhaps two separate areas of around half an inch. The latest NBM shows a narrow axis of medium chances (50 to 60 percent) for exceeding half an inch of rain Thursday through Friday night from Hettinger to just west of Minot, with low chances (10 to 20 percent) for exceeding 1 inch. Temperatures will remain closer to normal Thursday and Friday, although showers and associated cloud cover could cause some deviations. Friday in particular looks like a day where a large portion of the area could see cooler daytime temperatures under persistent clouds and shower activity. Overnight temperatures are forecast to remain well above freezing, with only parts of southwest North Dakota having a low chance of falling into the mid 30s Friday night. A significant warm up continues to be strongly favored by ensemble guidance through the holiday weekend as there is now increasing ensemble agreement on mean ridging over the central CONUS. The NBM shows moderate to low spread given the forecast time range with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s on Sunday and around 80 to 90 degrees on Memorial Day. Chances for rain under this pattern are low, but there could be some shortwaves traversing the top of the ridge over the Northern Plains before the ridge becomes more amplified. Above normal temperatures of highs in the mid 70s to upper 80s are favored to continue through the middle of next week, with increasing uncertainty in the eastward progression of the central CONUS ridge as a stronger wave digs down from the Gulf of Alaska. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 649 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions are mostly expected through the forecast period. A few sprinkles are possible across northwest and north central North Dakota this morning, with no impacts to aviation. From mid afternoon through this evening, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop over western and central North Dakota. Heavier showers and storms could produce brief downpours with IFR visibility and gusty winds. Outside of showers and storms, southerly winds will increase over central North Dakota this morning and afternoon, with sustained speeds reaching 20-30 kts and gusts as high as 35 kts. In western North Dakota, expect southerly winds around 15 kts this morning, becoming more southwesterly around 10-15 kts through the afternoon. A period of low-level wind shear is expected at KMOT early this morning. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for NDZ003-004-012-019-020-022-035-041-042-044-055>062. Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for NDZ005-013-023- 025-036-037-046>048-050-051. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...Hollan AVIATION...Hollan  822 FXUS63 KLBF 201147 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 647 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances increase today across southwestern NE into the central Sandhills, with highs from the mid 50s to near 60. - Rain and thunderstorm chances increase Thursday night into Friday, with 60%+ potential for seeing wetting rainfall across much of southwest Nebraska. - Temperatures warm early next week with dry conditions before a deep upper-level low approaches from the west towards mid-week leading to low-confidence in precise extended forecast details. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 205 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A Frost Advisory remains in effect until 7 AM CDT for eastern portions of north central Nebraska, where skies will remain mostly clear, light and variable winds, and low reach 33 to 35 degrees, with areas of frost. An increase in light south winds and increasing cloudiness overnight should limit frost formation to the west. Today, a disturbance currently over central Colorado will lift northeast this morning into the southeast panhandle and southwest, and the central Sandhills this afternoon. This will bring likely rain chances to areas mainly near and south of Highway 2 and mainly cloudy skies, with stratus persisting through much of the day. Warm air advection indicated mainly in the H7 to H6 layer with weak frontogenesis diminishing in the afternoon as the disturbance lifts northeast today. South of Highway 2, HREF probability of a tenth of an inch or more is 60 to 80 percent, with a 60 percent probability of a quarter inch or more portions of southwest Nebraska. Rain is not expected to reach portions of the northeast today. Highs only in the mid 50s southwestern areas, to near 60 northeast. Tonight, skies clear some across the north. Another disturbance will move from eastern CO, across Kansas and far southern Nebraska. Far southwest Nebraska will maintain a slight chance for showers overnight. At this time, looks like temperatures will remain above any frost potential from 35 to around 40. Thursday, the next system will deepen from Montana into the central Rockies. Downstream, moisture will be on the increase from the Southern Plains into western Nebraska as surface low pressure deepens across New Mexico into southern Colorado. Southeast winds will become breezy across the west by afternoon. Highs to range from the mid 60s northern Nebraska, to the upper 50s to lower 60s south. There will be low chances for showers in the morning across the south. A lead disturbance will extend from southeast Wyoming into the Colorado Front Range by late afternoon. This will bring increasing chances for showers and few thunderstorms across the west and south. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 205 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Thursday Night/Friday...by late afternoon, convection should be ongoing along the I-25 corridor from eastern Wyoming down through central Colorado. This occurs as lee troughing draws southeasterly moist flow up to the Front Range. This occurs as upper-level troughing crosses the Great Basin and approaches the Continental Divide. Within a moderately sheared environment, a narrow ribbon of modest instability should support a limited severe threat well to our southwest. As alluded to, this narrow ribbon of greater MUCAPE will not extend far east. That said, persistent advection of theta-e rich air off the surface and weak MUCAPE around 250-500 j/kg should sustain convection ahead of the main upper-level low into southwest Nebraska. Dry air does not appear to be a limiting factor, as persistent southeasterly flow will maintain 7+ g/kg mixing ratios which is near the median value of LBF RAOB climatology for lateMay. While light showers are favored in the evening hours, the convection originating from I-25 should begin to move into southwest Nebraska near Midnight with further expansion of convection through the early morning Friday. NBM probabilities for rainfall ramp up quickly during this timeframe: with potential for exceeding 0.10" reaching 80%+ Friday morning for much of the southern Sandhills into southwest Nebraska, and nearly 60-80% probabilities for exceeding 0.25" in the same timeframe for the same areas. The increased low- level moisture and ongoing precipitation is expected to hold temperatures in check and Thursday night lows have been boosted across the board as a result. Through early Friday, the main upper- level will cross the Central Rockies and begin to transition from neutral to negative tilt. Precipitation will continue through the day with ample instability to support thunderstorms. With stronger shear in place to the south, the threat for severe weather should favor western Kansas. Afternoon highs may be on the cooler side with values only reaching the upper 50s to low 60s. A trailing surface trough will settle into western Nebraska by later in the day and this along with the passing trough axis will bring a swift end to precipitation west to east across the area though some wrap around moisture from the h5 low may persist across our northern zones. Behind departing precipitation, low temperatures should again fall to the lower 40s with a few locations threatening the upper 30s. Saturday and beyond...heights build across the Central High Plains behind the exiting mid-level disturbance. Ridging will build across the Desert Southwest and cross the Rockies by early next week. This will coincide with warming temperatures as NBM guidance show median temperatures at their warmest values of the forecast period: the middle to upper 80s by Sunday and Monday. This will promote well above normal temperatures with dry conditions for much of the region. The upper pattern becomes fairly convoluted towards the middle of next week as a deep h5 low takes shape over the Pacific Northwest and settles east. Progression of this system is somewhat uncertain, with deterministic solutions varying on timing and placement of this and downstream influencing features. Because of this, confidence in extended forecast details is limited and will likely remain this way until extended guidance begins to hone in on a similar solution. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions are expected early in the forecast period with gradual degradation late across southwest Nebraska. Radar imagery continues to fill in across southwest Nebraska with light rain being reported upstream. This activity will eventually work north towards LBF, with a short window of light rain expected to bring low-end VFR conditions. The same will occur at VTN with a 2-3 hour delay. Mid-level stratus will continue thereafter until tonight when low CIGs and potential patchy fog may develop over southwest Nebraska. Have reintroduced MVFR conditions but some short-term guidance suggests more significant impacts are possible. Will defer to later forecasts for possible adjustments once confidence increases. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for NEZ006-007-009- 010-028-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...NMJ AVIATION...NMJ  829 FXUS64 KJAN 201148 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 648 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - The potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will need to be monitored for the next several days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 322 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Through tonight: cooler and wet through the period. Early morning local radars showed a weakening band of showers and thunderstorms roughly from Brookhaven to West Point. This convective activity was along a nearly stalled outflow boundary that was ahead of a cold front that was still to the northwest of our CWA. A surface high becoming centered over the Great Lakes region will try to push the cold front into the northwest portions of our CWA today but it will be the stalled boundary already in place that convection is expected to initiate along with daytime heating. Our winds aloft will remain southwesterly and surface ridging to our east will help maintain our warm moist airmass that will fuel the convection. Although the potential for any strong to severe storms will be low through tonight, with PWATs around two inches, locally heavy rain will be possible. There will be the potential for storms to train over the same areas repeatedly that may lead to some minor runoff issues in urban and low lying areas. Otherwise, the rainfall is expected to be beneficial and help ease drought conditions. As the convection is expected to be mostly diurnal, the heavy rainfall potential will be this afternoon into early evening. /22/ Thursday through Tuesday: Wet pattern will continue as the frontal boundary stalls north of the CWA and multiple shortwave disturbances traverse the region for the rest of the week into Memorial Day. Despite rainfall, high temps will reach the low/mid 80s and lows will be in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Widespread showers and storms are likely for the ArkLaMiss region. A few storms may reach severe limits, however, organized severe weather is not anticipated as instability won't be favorable. Rainfall amounts are estimate to range from 3-6 inches over the course of the extended period, providing some drought relief. As mentioned in previous discussion, SLU CIPS analogs reveal some heavy rainfall analogs from the historic archives that suggest a flash flood threat could evolve based on our current guidance forecasts, but the details are too uncertain as of now to provide formal messaging. Keep in mind that with each day that accumulates significant rainfall, antecedent conditions will become more favorable for a flood threat. /SW,EC/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 644 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A mix of MVFR/LIFR cigs wl continue until improving to VFR by 16Z. Isold to sct -TSRA wl develop this aftn and spread into east and se MS by 23Z. The TSRA wl diminish after 02Z Thu but -SHRA wl remain possible through the end of the TAF period. After 07Z MVFR cigs wl develop over most TAF sites and lower to IFR/LIFR by 10Z. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 83 69 85 70 / 70 50 60 80 Meridian 87 69 86 70 / 50 50 50 60 Vicksburg 82 69 84 69 / 60 40 80 80 Hattiesburg 88 69 86 70 / 60 40 80 60 Natchez 83 70 85 70 / 80 50 80 90 Greenville 82 67 82 68 / 60 40 60 90 Greenwood 82 67 84 68 / 90 40 60 80 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 22/SW/22  837 FXUS64 KMEG 201148 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 648 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 640 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through tonight and into Wednesday morning. - Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist each day into the upcoming Memorial Day weekend. - Past Tuesday, temperatures will be near normal with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the 60s. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1051 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A broad jet streak remains over the central Plains, extending east into the Great Lakes region with a weaker belt of southwesterlies over the Mid-South. Showers and thunderstorms pushed a front into the region this afternoon from the northwest, which continues to produce showers and thunderstorms as of 03z. Mesoanalysis shows ~1000 J/kg MUCAPE, which should support continued thunderstorm development along the boundary through the night. The complex is expected to continue east, posing only a marginal damaging wind threat and localized flooding. Recent HRRR/RAP runs redevelop storms across the Mississippi River Delta after 06z along an area of 925mb - 850mb convergence or weak frontogenesis. However, this convection is expected to remain sub- severe considering weak to non-existent effective shear and a decrease in MUCAPE to at or below 500 J/kg. Showers will remain across the region into Wednesday morning as the front stalls due to upper height rises with a steady decrease in convective coverage through the morning. Clouds and remnant showers will lead to lower high temperatures in the 70s and low 80s. Although the temperatures will decrease, the front's inability to meaningfully clear the region will allow for moisture to remain. Therefore, dewpoints will remain in the upper 60s to low 70s, leading to very muggy, humid conditions. The upper profile will also follow the same picture with moist- adiabatic temperature profiles and 1.8" - 2.0" PWATs throughout the region, producing enough MUCAPE and/or MLCAPE for additional convective development through the afternoon hours. Height rises and very low shear will keep the severe threat at bay, but scattered heavy downpours are expected. This pattern looks likely to persist as ensembles have converged on the ridge axis nudging east of the region, allowing for multiple, weak shortwaves to propagate into the region through the end of the week. The air mass will remain very moist with 90%+ percentile PWATs residing through the area, bringing daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, and also keeping temperatures in the 70s and low 80s. Coverage will be dependent on the upper forcing available, which appears to be maximized Friday as a more notable shortwave passes over the region. Enough effective shear and MLCAPE will overlap to produce the potential for a low-end severe damaging wind threat. This feature will pass Saturday, likely leading to somewhat of a decrease in convective coverage, but rainfall is still expected across the region through Sunday. Through Sunday, an area of 50 kt mid-level flow will eject from northwestern Mexico and travel northeast towards the Mid-South, amplifying into a closed upper low. The eastern side of the upper low will contain a region of 40+ kt southerlies that will overspread the region. Although models have struggled with run-to- run consistency regarding this feature, there is growing confidence in an enhanced low-level response within a very moist air mass. If a broad warm sector can maintain its instability into the afternoon, another marginal threat for damaging wind gusts could materialize. However, closed upper lows are very often subject to large model variability and changes to this forecast are expected in the coming days, but current trends have pointed towards this solution. Model variability regarding the evolution of the upper low only grows through the end of the period Tuesday, but the background synoptic pattern will largely remain the same with a ridge centered over the southern Atlantic coastline and broad troughing over the western CONUS. Therefore, rainy and unsettled weather still seems on the table next Tuesday that could last beyond the forecast period into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 SHRAs will continue near MEM, MKL, and JBR through late morning. There is medium to high confidence in MVFR/IFR CIGs persisting throughout much of the period as a cold front remains stalled across the region. There is low confidence of TSRA this afternoon at MEM and MKL with medium confidence at TUP. The front is expected to sag south near TUP overnight. IFR CIGs are expected at all sites with a low to medium chance of LIFR, especially at TUP. Winds will be light and northerly behind the front. AMD NOT SKED at TUP, due to missing observation since 20/08Z. AC3 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1051 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future, with minimum relative humidity values remaining above 40%. Expect showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through Memorial Day Weekend. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...AC3  841 FXUS64 KSHV 201148 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 648 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Widespread rainfall will continue on a daily basis through the course of the next seven days. - As soils become saturated from repeated rounds of rainfall, the risk of flash flooding will become a concern late this week and into the upcoming weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Some trailing stratiform precipitation remains across our Northeast and Central Louisiana zones in wake of early convection along a well defined outflow boundary. This lingering rain should eventually taper off overnight, as a stable and work-over atmosphere settles in place. There is a diminishing thunderstorm complex moving out of CentraL Texas, which could make it into portions of our Deep East Texas zones before daybreak, but confidence is low. However, decided to keep some slight chance POPS in those zones to be on the safe side. We could also see an isolated shower or thunderstorm near a slow moving cold front north of I-30 across SE Oklahoma and adjacent SW Arkansas. Due to the rain cooled airmass, lows tonight will bottom out in the low to mid 60s, which is pretty close to current temperatures over the region. Some patchy fog will also be possible with wet soils and light winds in place. For Wednesday, expect a much quieter day across the area. But, with the aforementioned cool front pushing into the region, some isolated showers and thunderstorms can't be ruled out, especially during the afternoon hours with peak heating. Models are all over the place in terms of precipitation chances, so decided to stick with the NBM's coverage and lower the chances. Wednesday night into Thursday, the cool front will continue to push through the area. However, the flow aloft will remain southwesterly, bringing a potent disturbance through the flow and a complex of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. It appears this active southwesterly flow pattern will continue through the weekend, bringing additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances will continue as we move into the first half of next week, as an upper trough and associated cool front moves into the region. Widespread organized severe weather will be on the lower end through this time period, but an isolated strong to severe threat can't be ruled out. Also, with the potential consecutive days of rainfall, an elevated flood risk could develop over the area. /20/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 639 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR/LIFR and VLIFR to start the 12z TAF period and cannot rule out some VSBY issues right hear near sunrise as well but as we go through the morning and into the afternoon, should see VFR conditions returning to most all terminal locations. Cannot rule out at least isolated to widely scattered diurnally driven convection today but chances do not warrant a mention in this TAF package. Through much of the evening, we should see prevailing VFR conditions but reintroduced a return to MVFR and IFR ceilings near or after midnight tonight. Look for NNE to ENE winds today with speeds generally under 10kts. 13 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Spotter activation is not expected over the next 24 hours. /20/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 84 70 81 68 / 20 30 80 90 MLU 84 69 84 68 / 30 30 60 90 DEQ 83 64 75 63 / 20 30 70 90 TXK 85 67 79 67 / 10 30 70 90 ELD 83 65 79 65 / 30 30 60 90 TYR 84 69 78 67 / 10 40 90 80 GGG 85 69 79 68 / 10 30 90 80 LFK 85 71 81 69 / 30 30 80 80 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...13  906 FXUS63 KMPX 201150 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 650 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably cool & dry today into Friday - Next chance for showers & thunderstorms comes Friday afternoon into Saturday. - Warmer for the latter half of the Memorial Day weekend through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Clear skies & calm winds are resulting in a chilly night across much of the region, with areas of frost expected until sunrise. Recent rains have also resulted in some patchy shallow fog & mist to develop across west-central Minnesota, again expected to clear up after sunrise. Otherwise no weather concerns of note until later on Friday with seasonably cool temperatures in the 60s expected for the next few afternoons. Our next chance for rain is expected Friday afternoon through Saturday as a shortwave trough digs along the US-Canada border. Enough instability will be present ahead of the system Friday afternoon & evening to likely generate some thunder, along with most of the rainfall from this system. Lighter rain showers will likely linger through saturday as the system exits the region off to the Great Lakes. Rainfall amounts Friday night look to be on the order of 0.5-1" across western Minnesota, decreasing to 0.1-0.25" across western Wisconsin. The Memorial Day weekend gets off to a cool & cloudy start with some light showers/drizzle lingering through the day on Saturday & temperatures remaining in the low to mid 60s. Warmer & sunnier conditions are expected for the rest of the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 70s Sunday & mid 80s likely on Monday. We'll have to monitor the potential for a weak upper level disturbance bringing a chance for thunderstorms sometime Sunday night into Monday, but these chances look to mainly limited to southern Minnesota. More summer-y conditions are expected for next week as ensemble guidance highlights multiple days with temperatures in the 80s, or around 10 degrees above normal for the end of May. No major systems or widespread chances for rain are expected. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 650 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Not much change since the previous TAF. Clear skies this morning with light and variable winds near 5kts for much of today. Some lingering MVFR/IFR fog will continue to mix out over the next hour or so which should briefly impact RWF and AXN. Few to Sct high- level clouds develop this afternoon but otherwise, should be nice day to take to the skies. KMSP...Winds will be light at or about 5kts however from a directional viewpoint, a NW'ly wind component can be expected this morning prior to wind shifting easterly this around 00z. Then, becoming southeasterly by 12z tomorrow morning. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts. FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15kts. SAT...MVFR/-RA early. Wind E 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Benton-Brown- Chippewa-Chisago-Douglas-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope- Redwood-Renville-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Stevens-Swift- Todd-Wright-Yellow Medicine. WI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Barron-Polk- Rusk. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...Dunleavy  894 FXUS64 KEWX 201150 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 650 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier conditions during the day today as the atmosphere recovers from storms this morning. - Active weather pattern continues through the upcoming Memorial Holiday weekend. Rounds of storms with heavy rain could lead to localized flooding.&& .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 147 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Early this morning, a complex of showers and thunderstorms was making its way south out of our area with only some lingering light activity expected behind it the next couple of hours. A stable atmosphere will be in place this morning into most of the afternoon will mainly dry conditions expected though an isolated shower can't be ruled out. Cloud cover and the cooler start to the morning will keep temperatures mainly in the 80s today with a light southerly wind. Late this afternoon and evening, we should begin to destabilize again. At the same time, another disturbance in the southwesterly flow aloft will be moving over the area which should help scattered showers and thunderstorms to redevelop in the west. A corridor of moderate instability over West Texas into the western southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains along with sufficient shear values will bring another evening of an isolated severe storm risk as storms first move into the area mid afternoon or early evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the main hazards with the severe risk lessening as the storms continue east overnight. Additionally, a risk for flooding is seen as above normal moisture will allow for storms to produce heavy rain with high rain rates. Those that received rain last night will be more prone to flooding with this next round with this pattern continuing through the week. Another period of more stable conditions should be seen behind the passing complex of storms which will likely bring another period of mostly dry weather Thursday with cooler highs again in the 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 147 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A bit of a broken record in these discussions as daily rain chances continue into early week. Multiple disturbances within the upper- level southwesterly flow and moist air will be the main drivers for this wet pattern. Each round of storms will influence the following day's storm potential, so confidence on precise timing and placement for any activity is low in the long-term forecast. Guidance does continue to indicate some kind of disturbance aloft moving over the area late Thursday into Friday keeping the trend more favorable timing in the evening and overnight. Another period to look out for continues to be the weekend as shortwave moves over the area. For those with holiday weekend plans, we don't expect the entire weekend to be a washout but do prepare for stormy conditions at times that will be better known as we get closer. A messy synoptic pattern but near to above average moisture keep periods of low rain chances into next week. Each round of rainfall will continue to moisten/saturate soils, increasing the potential for runoff which may eventually lead to flash flooding or river flooding. Given the dependence on where each round of storms moves across, pinpointing exact rainfall totals is difficult though we do expect some widespread beneficial rainfall. Those that see storms continuing to track over their area could eventually see flooding and cannot rule out a Flood Watch later in the week or weekend. Continue to monitor the forecast and always have a way to receive warning information. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A combination of MVFR and VFR conditions are forecast for the local area terminals through late tonight. The overnight storms that affected most of South Central Texas are now over the Coastal Plains. However, the system left behind a wake low that is producing 30 to 50 knots wind gusts along and east of I-35 corridor. This activity could last another hour or so. Another round of storms is forecast for the Rio Grande Plains and Southern Edwards Plateau this evening into the overnight period. Any strong to severe storms that move over a terminal could bring visibility down a category or two. East to southerly winds are forecast through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 83 71 81 70 / 10 70 50 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 83 71 81 70 / 10 70 50 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 84 70 82 69 / 10 70 50 30 Burnet Muni Airport 79 67 79 67 / 10 70 50 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 85 68 85 69 / 30 90 20 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 81 69 79 68 / 10 60 60 30 Hondo Muni Airport 85 69 82 68 / 10 70 40 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 83 71 81 70 / 10 70 50 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 84 72 81 71 / 20 50 60 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 84 70 82 71 / 10 70 50 20 Stinson Muni Airport 85 70 82 71 / 10 70 50 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...27 LONG TERM....27 AVIATION...17  882 FXUS65 KCYS 201150 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 550 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chilly temperatures will continue for the next several days. Another round of freezing temperatures expected this morning in areas with snow cover, with patchy frost and fog elsewhere. - Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue through Wednesday night. A more widespread round of showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday into Friday. - Slightly above average temperatures and pleasant weather expected for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 215 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Current KCYS radar loop shows some light rain showers with a little bit of snow above 7500 feet across the far southeast Wyoming near Cheyenne and Pine Bluffs and the southern Nebraska Panhandle early this morning. The upper level trough axis near the Utah border and WAA aloft out ahead of it is responsible for this activity. Periods of light rain showers will likely continue this morning and into the early afternoon hours with breaks at times. Watching some fog across the I-80 Summit also and will likely need a Dense Fog Advisory shortly since the precipitation appears to have shifted to the east. Southeast winds should continue for the next 6 hours over the Summit, so do not expect the fog to lift until midmorning. Otherwise, Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories continue for most of southeast Wyoming and Sioux County over western Nebraska. Slow warming trend will continue for today and Thursday as a long wave trough settles into the western third of the United States. Carbon county will rebound today with highs in the upper 40s to middle 50s with recent webcams showing rapid snow melt. There are still areas with deep snow pack, and those locations will likely still make it into the middle 40s. Kept 20 to 40 percent POP for this afternoon with some weak WAA aloft continuing through the day but better instability should keep widely scattered rain showers and isolated thunder going through this evening. Not as cold tonight with lows in the 30s to low 40s across most of the high plains, and upper 20s to low 30s for Carbon and Albany counties. Later on Thursday, models show a potent clipper system digging south out of Alberta Canada and slowing down over the region. Will have to monitor this system for additional mountain snowfall, but expect most of the lower elevations to stay as rainfall. The system has trended a little colder compared to yesterday, with rain/snow mix down to 6500 feet...but any accumulations should be minimal for Laramie and Rawlins with generally no impacts on area roadways. Good low to midlevel forcing with this system, and daytime instability will aid in shower and thunderstorm development with CAPE values between 400 to 800 j/kg. Could see some decent rainfall amounts into Friday, with 25th to 50th percentile QPF amounts between a quarter inch and half inch. Some places across western Nebraska could even see up to 1 inch of rainfall from this system depending on the coverage of deep convection. Increased POP above 75 percent for most of the area with the good chance for another much-needed wetting rainfall. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 139 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 An active and summer-like weather pattern is expected to take shape Friday through most of next week. Upper-level trough continued Friday and Saturday before zonal flow returns for Sunday and Monday. The next best chance for upper-level troughing looks to be Tuesday through the end of the week as a deep, upper-level trough near the West Coast pushes eastwards through mid-week. The 500mb flow will feature a very similar progression throughout the next several days,but isolated vorticity lobes will pass across the CWA, leading to increasing synoptic ascent despite the largely zonal upper-level flow and large-scale ridging late in the week. Westerly to southwesterly flow will dominate at 700mb Friday through much of the upcoming week, with moisture continuing to advect in with the 700mb from the Pacific Ocean just southwest of southern California. Despite the influx of moisture, the NAEFS Mean suggests that Precipitable Water values will remain seasonal for this time of year, so significant rainfall is not expected at this time though still likely more than the region has seen throughout much of this "winter" season. Looking at 700mb temperatures, a warming trend is expected Friday through much of the week, with 700mb temperatures over 10C returning for much of the region early next week. Surface temperatures will also see a warming trend through the weekend and into next week, with a small potential for slightly warmer than average temperatures, favored by the NAEFS Mean 700mb Temperatures being in the 90th percentile for isolated portions of the CWA. While every day in the longer term forecast will feature some chance for isolated, afternoon showers and storms, as is quite typical with a summer-like pattern, Friday looks to be the most active day with the best potential for isolated, strong to severe thunderstorms. The next best day for precipitation will be Wednesday as the next upper- level trough is progged to push into the region. Looking at Friday, a messy, 700mb low will slowly get its act together in the morning hours becoming a closed low by late morning. An attendant surface low will push northeast out of northeastern Colorado, placing the CWA on the cooler side of the system as a whole. However, 700mb warm air advection is expected to start by the early afternoon hours as warmer temperatures further south start to push north as the first upper-level short-wave trough move off to the northeast and the second slowly swings across the Intermountain West for the overnight hours. Therefore, during the day, there will be favorable ascent in the form of 500mb vorticity maxima moving across the region combined with 700mb WAA, residual ascent associated with the surface low, then finally a secondary, weaker cold front as the second short-wave pushes through the region overnight Friday into early Saturday morning. Hires guidance does not quite reach Friday afternoon and evening at this time, but the NAM suggests anywhere from 200 to 700 J/kg of MUCAPE across the western Nebraska Panhandle. This would be enough, combined with the synoptic ascent across the region, to get at least a few rumbles of thunder, but also the possibility of very gusty winds and possibly some isolated hail. It will be interesting to see how hires guidance depicts this system as it gets into the time range, especially since forecast NAM soundings suggest a very wet environment with very strong 0 to 3km shear. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 550 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 A weak upper level disturbance will remain over Colorado for most of the day, resulting in periods of rain showers this morning and this afternoon. Any fog concerns seem to be minimal so far this morning. HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: MVFR CIGS are lifting at KCYS and KLAR early this morning. Expect VFR conditions to prevail with a few hours of MVFR CIGS at KSNY and KAIA between 15z and 19z. South winds will become gusty by 15z over the western Nebraska terminals through this evening. KCDR and KAIA will likely be gusty through tonight due to the low level jet across the plains. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT this morning for WYZ102-106-107- 117. Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT this morning for WYZ101-115. Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT this morning for WYZ104-105- 109>111-113-116. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for WYZ116 NE...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT this morning for NEZ095. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...AM AVIATION...TJT  970 FXUS64 KMRX 201151 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 751 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 749 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 - Above normal temperatures continue today with highs roughly 10 degrees above normal. - Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected today and into the weekend. A few strong storms are possible today, and perhaps Friday as well. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 151 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Coverage of showers and storms will be greater today due to an increase in forcing thanks to a weak shortwave and frontal boundary moving into the area. HREF mean CAPE values are around 500 to 800 J/kg for most of the area. SPC Day 1 Outlook has a marginal risk in place for northeast TN and our southwest VA counties. This appears warranted as there will be some low-end 0-6km bulk shear across these areas; HREF means generally yield around 20 kts. For this reason, a few strong to severe storms are possible during the late afternoon/evening hours. The main threats will be small hail and isolated damaging wind gusts. Models still showing an increase in PW values, around 1.6 to 1.8 inches, on Thursday. Widespread to numerous showers and storms are expected areawide through the day. Due to the moisture increase, some locally to moderate to heavy downpours are expected. The severe threat is lower than Wednesday though due to an absence of shear. A warm, moist southerly flow will continue on Friday. In addition, an area of low pressure will be moving northeast from the lower Mississippi River Valley and into Missouri. This will allow for showers and storms across the region. LREF means show low/moderate instability and low-end 0-6km bulk shear across much of the area. If this occurs, a few strong to severe storms will be possible areawide. Shower and storm chances continue over the weekend and into early next week as we remain in a southwest flow pattern. With an upper trough to our northwest, and high pressure to our southeast, several disturbances will move thorugh the southwest flow and across our region. The environment will continue to be moist and unstable and will support continued chances for showers and storms each day. The primary impacts during this timeframe lightning and locally heavy rainfall. QPF through the next 7 days will widely vary across our area. Some areas will receive several inches of rain and other areas much less. Areas that see repeated showers and storms over numerous days will see the most rainfall. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 749 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR to continue until rain or TS worsens conditions. Convection today will be scattered mostly, with mountains and Plateau focal areas, lesser confidence in the valley. Late in the period, low confidence in CIG, with at least low (10 to 20%) potential for MVFR CIGs, along with re-development of light rain showers by the end of the period. Winds generally light outside of any TS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 66 84 66 / 70 50 80 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 66 83 65 / 50 50 90 70 Oak Ridge, TN 88 64 82 63 / 60 40 90 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 63 81 62 / 30 60 80 60 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...Wellington  231 FXUS65 KGJT 201155 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 555 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freezing temperatures linger into Wednesday morning. Freeze Warnings are in effect for the lower basins of northwest Colorado. - After Wednesday, temperatures begin to trend above normal and will continue that way through the weekend. - Precipitation is periodically possible throughout the week, mostly confined to the higher terrain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 952 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Overnight clearing skies will contribute to sub-freezing temperatures into the early morning Wednesday. Freeze Warnings remain in effect for northwestern Colorado and are set to expire at 9 AM. We are currently in the midst of a pattern shift, where ridging and high pressure will begin to build this weekend. The weather will be generally dry and quiet as this transition occurs, with the exception of some of the higher terrain locations. Wednesday temperatures will still remain below normal, but that will be the last day with below normal temperatures for the current week. Some scattered afternoon rain and snow showers are possible (30-50%) in the central and southern mountains Wednesday afternoon. Warming temperatures associated with the building ridge will keep any snow accumulations very minimal and confined to the highest elevations for that time period. On Thursday, another shortwave trough will begin to propagate through the area, bringing lift and weak moisture to the northern half of our CWA. Some model guidance suggests this trough may take a more southerly track which would favor precipitation chances along I-70. As more high resolution model guidance comes out, more certainty will be revealed for the most favorable location for moisture. But at this point, the current forecast keeps rain and high elevation snow chances primarily for the northern areas. Past Thursday, some pockets of vorticity and available moisture may support terrain based afternoon convection each day as we move into the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 550 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 The weak boundary bisecting Colorado diagonally this morning is producing some low to mid level ceilings and a few showers. Left SHRA and TSRA in at KASE, KGUC, and KTEX, as this is mostly a terrain based problem. This boundary will inch eastward very slowly today and tonight, so showers and thunderstorms will remain a possibility on the terrain this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds look to be the primary impact to aviators, as moisture is rather weak with this feature. Winds will pick up this afternoon and gust to around 20 mph with a few stronger gusts near the mountains. As the boundary begins to clear the region, expect VFR conditions to resume control to close out this TAF period. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ001-002. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BS/TGJT AVIATION...TGJT