250 FXUS63 KAPX 201009 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 609 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Seasonably cool temperatures and quiet weather return today through the rest of the work week. -Frost/freeze concerns continue tonight and Thursday night. -Temperatures slowly build through the rest of the week into early next week with periodic chances of precipitation. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Pattern Synopsis: A 500mb troughing pattern begins to break down and progress northeast this morning as a somewhat zonal flow positions itself over Northern Michigan. Post-frontal northwest flow at the surface will draw a cool cP air influence into the Great Lakes Region, resulting in seasonably cool temperatures and overall quiet weather through the remainder of the work week. Conditions turn more active this weekend as low-amplitude shortwave troughing develops over the Canadian Rockies until it reaches the central U.S. and then lifts through the Great Lakes Region. Disheveled surface low pressure will provide enough energy to return some scattered showers around the Saturday/Sunday timeframe. The remainder of the forecast period will remain relatively quiet as upstream ridging returns subsidence aloft and surface high pressure settles over the central U.S. with temperatures building above normal for late May. Forecast Details: Today through Friday...Post frontal northwest flow will build cold and quiet weather across the Northwoods. Surface highs will be below normal for this time period as the coldest day (today) will only reach highs in the mid 50s to low 60s for most areas. The only concern at this time period is the chilly overnight temperatures falling into the mid to low 30s. Temperatures will be near freezing as cloud cover clears late, which impacts the true efficiency of overnight radiational cooling processes. Areas along the interior northern lower and eastern upper will likely observe a short period of temperatures at or below freezing while areas closer to lakes remain slightly warmer. Saturday and Sunday...The previously mentioned shortwave will return light shower chances this weekend as guidance depicts low pressure tracking through the Mississippi Valley across Michigan. With weakening upper level dynamics combined with the strongest forcing to our south, highest probabilities remain below a quarter inch for the entire event. Nevertheless, light stratiform rain this Saturday and lingering moisture behind the system provide less than ideal weather for the holiday weekend. Monday and Tuesday Outlook...Upstream ridging pattern originating from the southwest and progressing across the county will support a gradual rise in temperatures across the Great Lakes region. Southerly air influence combined with diurnal heating processes will return high temperatures to the 70s and 80s across the CWA. Subsidence aloft will return high pressure, keeping precipitation chances minimal next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 608 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions are expected across northern Michigan through the issuance period. Northwest to north-northwest winds around 10 kts are expected into the early evening hours with gusts around 20 kts at times. Winds are expected to go calm later this evening for most areas. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ345>348. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ321-322. && $$ DISCUSSION...DJC AVIATION...MJG  247 FXUS63 KEAX 201009 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 509 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Cooler conditions continue through the end of the workweek, with rainfall chances arriving as soon as Thursday morning (10-30%). The greatest chance for rain is overnight Thursday through Friday morning (70-80%). * Low-end chances (20-30%) for rain extend into the weekend with temperatures creeping into the upper 70s and lower 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 424 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A loop of the latest H5 analyses depicts the unwavering nature of the upper-level trough out west. While this system was enjoying its West Coast vacation, lee cyclogenesis has begun in northern British Columbia and Alberta as a 130+ kt jet streak runs over the Northern Rockies. Over the next 24 hours, this process will produce two distinct mid-level cyclones. One is expected to hold north along the U.S./Canada border while the other is pulled south by the upper- level jet. The latter's influence may be felt as early as Thursday as it ejects a series of shortwaves into the region. Guidance suggests the first shortwave could move through as early as midnight on Thursday. However, dry air aloft will limit rain potential for at least several more hours. There are some indications that mid-level moisture could improve as soon as Thursday morning, but this comes many hours after the subtle vort max passes by. Rain is not out of the question during the earlier portions of the day on Thursday, but it will be reliant on the timing of saturation aloft relative to that of the shortwave. Given these conditional circumstances, hourly PoPs have been limited to 10-30% between 06Z and 18Z Thursday. Increasingly southerly mid and low-level flow throughout the afternoon and evening on Thursday will bolster rain chances as a second shortwave is introduced to the region. The coincident timing of the shortwave and moisture increases confidence in precipitation late Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning, with the greatest 6-hourly PoPs (70-80%) occurring overnight and early Friday morning. As the mid-level low dives south along the Rocky Mountain range, lee cyclogenesis looks to be induced yet again with a small lee cyclone appearing just east of the New Mexico border as early as Friday morning. Although rainfall chances should generally decline throughout the day on Friday, the primary cyclone is outlooked to bend northeastward through Nebraska and northwest Iowa late in the day leading to increased low-level south/southwesterly flow, so WAA induced showers remain a possibility. Some weak to modest instability may be able to develop in the southern fringes of the CWA, but shear looks to remain poor. Regardless, a rogue elevated and sub-severe storm cannot be ruled out Friday evening. Increased WAA courtesy of the primary mid-level low will help boost temperatures into the lower 70s and upper 80s heading into the weekend. By Saturday morning, the mid-level lee cyclone is expected to arrive. Ample uncertainty remains on the type of impact this system could have locally as current projections keep the surface cyclone and boundary near the southern and eastern fringes of the CWA. Should the placement be further north, shower and storm chances would increase with more opportunities for ascent at the ready. Modest instability also looks to exist south of the surface boundary, so a further northward progression could open the door for some degree of convective development Saturday afternoon. Like Friday evening, though, shear profiles remain unimpressive. A day to keep an eye on, but nothing to write home about for now. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 502 AM CDT Wed May20 2026 SCT low/mid level clouds to continue pushing off to the east, making way for FEW high clouds for the remainder of the day on Wednesday with winds 5-10 kts out of the ENE. Overnight, expect clouds to build back in to BKN with CIGs dropping to roughly 5000 ft. A few sprinkles may be noted in the last couple hours of the TAF period, but prevailing -RA/-SHRA is not expected until several hours beyond the end of the current TAF period. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Macko AVIATION...Macko  255 FXUS66 KSGX 201009 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 309 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Warming will continue for the mountains and deserts through Thursday while the coast and valleys begin to cool. For Friday through Sunday, not much change in high temperatures is expected for the mountains and deserts while the coast and valley cool a few more degrees. Cooling will begin to spread inland early next week as onshore flow strengthens. Patchier night and morning low clouds near the coast will increase in coverage and inland spread for Friday into early next week with low clouds spreading into portions of the inland valleys late each night with later or more limited clearing near the coast each afternoon. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)... The humidity for inland areas will once again fall to around 10 percent for the deserts for this afternoon and 10 to 15 percent for the mountains and inland valleys. High temperatures will continue to warm for inland areas today, as much as another 4 to 8 degrees for the mountains and deserts, while coastal areas cool a few degrees. High temperatures today will range from around 70 near the coast to the mid 80s to lower 90s for the Inland Empire with the lower deserts in the mid to upper 90s. For Thursday, high temperatures will warm another few degrees for the deserts while the coast and valleys cool a few to around 5 degrees. Friday high temperatures will cool a few degrees for most areas. High temperatures on Friday will range from the mid to upper 60s near the coast to the upper 70s to mid 80s for the Inland Empire with the upper 90s for the lower deserts. The most likely location for coastal low clouds this morning is over coastal areas of southern San Diego County into the adjacent western valleys. Greater coverage of low clouds is expected for tonight into Thursday morning for coastal areas with the low clouds spreading into the western valleys for Thursday night into Friday morning. && .LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)... High temperatures will change little through Sunday, generally a few degrees above average for the coast and valleys and a few to around 5 degrees above average for the mountains and deserts. High temperatures for Saturday and Sunday will range from around 70 near the coast to the upper 70s to upper 80s for the Inland Empire with the lower deserts around 100. For Monday and Tuesday, a low pressure system moving into the Pacific Northwest will strengthen the onshore flow across southern California. This will spread cooling inland with high temperatures on Tuesday a few degrees below average near sea level to 5 to 10 degrees below average for the valleys and lower coastal slopes of the mountains. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the mid to upper 60s near the coast to the 70s for the Inland Empire with the 90s for the lower deserts. Night and morning low clouds will spread inland into portions of the inland valleys late each night with slower and more limited afternoon clearing near the coast. With the stronger onshore flow early next week, southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts will gust to 30 to 40 mph on Tuesday afternoon and evening with gusts to around 60 mph in the northern Coachella Valley below the San Gorgonio Pass. && .AVIATION... 200930Z...Coast...Areas of low clouds based around 800-1200 feet MSL will gradually develop and cover much of coastal San Diego County and southern OC this morning. Vis reduced 1-5SM over higher coastal terrain. Scatter out by 16Z. Low clouds based around 1000 feet MSL will redevelop after 06Z tonight into Thursday and cover coastal areas more uniformly. Otherwise, mostly clear and VFR conditions today and tonight. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...17 AVIATION/MARINE...MM  762 FXUS66 KPQR 201012 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 311 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and warm weather is expected across the region through much of the week into the weekend with high pressure over the Northeast Pacific shifting east into the Pacific NW. Weak systems aloft may bring enhanced cloud cover on some days, but rain chances are minimal. Uncertainty in the forecast increases Sunday into early next week as chances for precipitation return for Memorial Day. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Tuesday...Water vapor satellite imagery this morning shows an amplified upper level trough over the northeast Pacific with northwesterly flow streaming onshore. The GOES nighttime microphysics imagery reveals stratus along the coast, through the lower Columbia River Valley, and backbuilding off the Cascades into the Willamette Valley. Morning clouds are expected to scatter out by the afternoon allowing temperatures to warm again into the lower 70s inland and around 60 degrees at the coast. High pressure will maintain dry conditions through the end of the week. As offshore ridging shifts east later in the week, temperatures will trend warmer, reaching the 60s to near 70 degrees on the coast and upper 70s to mid 80s inland. This will support widespread Minor HeatRisk excepting only the immediate coast. Chances for Moderate HeatRisk on Thursday are 15-35% in Portland and the adjacent northern Willamette Valley, 5-20% in Salem and Albany/Corvallis, and 5% or less elsewhere. Concerns for hazardous weather otherwise remain low. Temperatures on Friday are now trending only a degree or two cooler than Thursday as broad ridging moves over the region. Saturday through the holiday weekend, uncertainty in the evolution and possible break-down of the upper-level ridge yields growing uncertainty in forecast temperatures and precipitation. In general, as the ridge deamplifies, temperatures are more likely to trend cooler through the period, especially by Monday. There continues to be greater consensus of an upper-level trough digging over the NE Pacific on Monday, supporting much cooler temperatures and 40-70% chances for rain across the area. This means there are increasing chances that a front brings widespread rain sometime on Memorial Day. Ensemble clusters still show quite a large range of potential rainfall, so will continue to see how models resolve the pattern into this weekend. DH/36 && .AVIATION...An upper level ridge offshore will maintain northwest flow aloft over the region today. Marine stratus along the coast and pushing up the Columbia River will likely sustain MVFR CIGs at impacted terminals through 18-20z. Stratus back-building off the Cascades into the Willamette Valley early this morning could reach inland terminals as well, with guidance suggesting there is a 20-40% chance of this occurring, except around a 60-80% chance at KTTD. Predominately VFR conditions are expected by this afternoon. KPDX AND APPROACHES...As of 09z, VFR conditions persist. But, satellite imagery shows low stratus expanding towards the terminal. There is around a 40-50% chance for MVFR CIGs at the terminal between 12-18z this morning. Afterwards, VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the TAF period. Northwest winds continue at around 5-10 kt, strongest in the afternoon and evening. /DH && .MARINE...High pressure continues offshore as northerlies are expected to persist through the end of the week. Strongest winds are expected during the afternoon and evening periods as the surface thermal trough strengthens over the northern CA/southern OR coast. More widespread wind gusts to 25 kt are expected later today and again on Thursday as inland temperatures warm. Small Craft conditions for most coastalwater zones will persist each afternoon and evening. Seas 6 to 9 feet are expected through the week as well. A Small Craft Advisory is also in place for the Columbia River Bar for this morning due to strong ebb currents. Strong ebb currents are possible during the morning hours each day this week. The summer-like pattern is likely to break down later Sunday as a front approaches the waters by Monday next week. /DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 AM PDT this morning for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ252-271-272. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ253. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  085 FXUS61 KBUF 201021 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 621 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes made from the previous forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front will move across the region this morning, bringing a few showers followed by drier and much cooler weather to close out the work week. 2) Unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front will move across the region this morning, bringing a few showers followed by drier and much cooler weather to close out the work week. GOES water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough over east- central Canada this morning. An area of low pressure is located over central Quebec with an associated cold front stretching south across southern Ontario. A moist and mild airmass resides across the forecast area and scattered showers are possible early this morning. The front will move across the forecast area later this morning and drier and cooler air will filter into the region. Temperatures will fall through the daytime hours with high temperatures met early in the day. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 50s to low 60s by late afternoon. An abrupt cool down is expected across the region through the end of the work week. Temperatures at 850 will fall to the single digits as high pressure builds across the region. Low temperatures will fall into the 40s tonight and Thursday night. A favorable set-up for radiational cooling is expected Thursday night, especially east of Lake Ontario and areas of patchy frost inland from Lake Ontario can't be ruled out. KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend. Ensemble mean 500mb heights indicate an upper level ridge building into the eastern Great Lakes region during the first half of the weekend. Following this, the pattern is expected to become zonal from Sunday through Monday. Deep southerly flow is expected to move into the region ahead of a warm front Friday night through Saturday. The chance of showers will increase from south to north across the forecast area Friday night through Saturday. This time period supports the potential for a widespread, soaking rain. Then, an upper level trough is expected to move north of the Great Lakes region Sunday through Monday, maintaining chances for showers and a few storms. Temperatures will get back to seasonal normals Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cold front will move across the region this morning. MVFR/IFR flight conditions will improve from northwest to southeast this morning. A chance of showers will continue along the cold front, and may linger across the Southern Tier through the afternoon. High pressure will build into the region tonight and VFR conditions are expected across the region. Outlook... Thursday through Friday...VFR. Saturday and Sunday...Potential for low end VFR/MVFR due to a low pressure system introducing rain to the region from the south. && .MARINE... A cold front will move across the eastern Great Lakes today. Northwest winds will increase on the Lakes today, with an uptick in winds on the eastern end of Lake Ontario. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for this region through this evening. Winds will be lighter on Lake Erie, however may be enough to produce choppy conditions. Winds will begin to relax as high pressure builds into the region, however a tight pressure gradient may produce choppy conditions on Lake Erie Thursday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NYZ005>007. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LOZ043>045. && $$ DISCUSSION...HSK AVIATION...HSK MARINE...HSK  066 FXUS65 KVEF 201020 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 319 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warming trend continues through Memorial Day Weekend, with afternoon highs climbing to 6 to 8 degrees above-normal. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday. Today will be the coolest day of the forecast period as heights rise over the region in the wake of last weekend's windy trough. The Desert Southwest will remain situated between an eastern Pacific area of high pressure to the west and persistent troughing in the central CONUS to the east. As a result, expect occasional breezy afternoons as shortwave troughs ride along our northwest flow aloft. HeatRisk will peak Saturday through Monday, with widespread Minor (Level 1 on a scale of 0 to 4), and pockets of Moderate (Level 2) in the lower desert valleys such as Death Valley, Moapa Valley, and the Colorado River Valley. Increased outdoor activity can be expected with the holiday weekend, so people are encouraged to bring along with them plenty of water, sunscreen, and take frequent breaks in the shade and/or air conditioning. There is a continued signal that unsettled weather returns for the middle of next week, but details are murky at this time. Stay tuned to the forecast if you have travel or outdoor recreation plans! && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Light, variable winds generally at or below 6 knots will persist through mid-morning before veering to the northeast by late this morning. Speeds will remain light, generally 8 knots or less, through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will shift to the typical southwest direction after sunset. VFR conditions can be expected through the period, with a few scattered high clouds with bases AOA 20kft AGL moving in after 00Z Thursday. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Gusty northerly winds will continue in the Colorado River Valley again today, with gusts of 20 to 25 knots expected at KIFP and KEED this afternoon. Elsewhere, winds will generally remain under 10 knots. VFR conditions will prevail areawide, with a few scattered high clouds with bases AOA 20kft AGL moving from north to south across the region late this afternoon through Thursday morning. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Soulat AVIATION...Planz For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  120 FXUS63 KDTX 201023 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 623 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and cool through Friday. - Rain returns by Friday night and continues into Saturday. && .AVIATION... A notably cooler environment expanding across the area this morning. This will maintain areas of lower stratus going forward this morning. Latest observational trends highlight a predominant MVFR condition with this cloud field. This moisture will thin with time as cloud base increases with daytime, offering a trend toward lower VFR before eventually clearing this afternoon. Some lingering thicker upper level cloud may exist for the latter half of the day. Prevailing winds from the north to northeast at around 10 knots throughout the day. Dry and stable conditions tonight a high pressure builds into the area maintains widespread VFR with little evidence of anything more than perhaps some patches of cirrus at times. D21/DTW Convection...No thunderstorms are expected through Thursday. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for ceilings at or below 5000 ft this morning. Low this afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 356 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 DISCUSSION... A surface cold front progressed across the area overnight and a strong marine augmented pneumonia front continues to surge south and west early this morning. An impressive 10 to 25 degree temperature drop has been observed behind this feature. The frontal inversion traps a stratus deck overhead early today, but this shows signs of giving way with time as drier air arrives from the north. Some sunshine looks likely across the north later today but high cloud remains more pervasive across the south. 850mb temps settle in the 1 to 3 C range today, carrying a much cooler day with highs in the lower to mid 60s. North to northeast flow off Lake Huron holds temps near the lakeshore in the 50s. Upper jet streak entrance region overhead gains an increasingly anticyclonic orientation through the day, causing expansive high pressure to spread from the Midwest into the Great Lakes tonight. Another release of dense marine air spreads across the area late this evening and sends temps down into the 40s and dew points into the 30s. Could see some patchy frost Thursday morning in the cooler locales of the Saginaw Valley and Thumb if wind ends up going calm, but expectation is for the persistent northeast gradient and a veil of mid/high cloud to prevent widespread frost development. Light wind maintains a northerly component through much of Thursday, holding temperatures in a similar range compared to today. Strong deep layer stability and mid-level dry air ensure dry conditions through the day and most of Friday. Slightly milder conditions are forecast Thursday night with more cloud cover in the vicinity. Longwave trough over the High Plains helps direct a shortwave from the western Gulf coast toward the Great Lakes late Friday. The attendant surge of moisture brings relatively high confidence in widespread stratiform rain Friday night into Saturday, with a notable shift among the bulk of ensemble guidance toward a later start time - likely after sunset Friday. Placement of steadiest rain will be subject to the eventual track of low pressure and efficiency of warm conveyor moisture advection, but will note 12z LREF grand ensemble probabilities target southeastern portions of the area with a 50% chance to exceed 1 inch by Saturday afternoon. Deep layer southwest flow ensues Saturday as the wave lifts through, with warm advection boosting temps back into the 70s to finish the holiday weekend. Another shortwave capitalizes on burgeoning instability to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening. A warming trend follows next week with good consensus among grand ensemble 500mb progs in depicting an omega blocking ridge setting up over Ontario by late week. MARINE... High pressure will fill in across the Great Lakes this morning and will slowly move across the region tomorrow before washing out across the Continental Northeast by Friday morning. This will bring dry weather through the midweek period. Northwest and north flow in the wake of a cold front will bring some slightly elevated winds across north and north-central Lake Huron with gusts 20 to 25 knots. A heightened wave field reaching the Thumb nearshore prompted a Small Craft Advisory this afternoon and evening. As the high pressure system moves over the Great Lakes on Thursday, winds will begin to veer to the northeast and will hold northeast-east through Friday. The next low pressure system is then expected to enter the Great Lakes late Friday into Saturday which will bring the next potential for showers and thunderstorms. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for LHZ421-441. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....MR DISCUSSION...TF MARINE.......AM You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  107 FXUS63 KJKL 201022 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 622 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower and thunderstorms will become more prevalent today, with widespread rain chances continuing through the next seven days, including the holiday weekend. - The switch to an active and wetter pattern yields temperatures closer to normal readings, and is likely to provide at least temporary relief from drought conditions. && .UPDATE... Issued at 622 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026 Showers and thunderstorms have developed in the last hour or so along a moisture (i.e., theta-e) gradient roughly parallel to the western escarpment of the Cumberland Plateau. This activity is ahead of the cold front, which is still west and northwest of the forecast area across central Kentucky. PoPs and Sky grids have been updated to reflect these trends. Hourly T/Tds have also been updated in the very near term. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 328 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026 A cold front will move southeast into eastern Kentucky this afternoon, then come to a stall later tonight through Thursday along the TN and VA borders. Meanwhile, broad forcing for ascent increases across the area through the day as a slow-moving shortwave approaches from the southwest, with the shortwave becoming gradually sheared out across southeastern Kentucky tonight into Thursday as shortwave ridging builds over the area by Thursday evening. As the front approaches from the northwest today and the aforementioned shortwave approaches from the southwest, rain chances will steadily increase. Current dew points in the 60s combined with a developing mid-level 30-40 kt speed max ahead of the shortwave will provide the kinematics and thermodynamics for scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, with low to moderate buoyancy from surface high temperatures forecast to reach the lower to mid 80s for much of the area, warmest in the Big Sandy Basin. Thus, a few isolated severe storms will be possible, with damaging winds and hail the primary severe threats. Additionally, downpours may cause localized high water issues in poor drainage areas. Showers and thunderstorm activity transitions to more of a shower/rain threat tonight into Thursday as the shortwave becomes sheared and the cold front stalls near or along the TN and VA state lines, creating more of an overrunning situation. The building upper ridging Thursday may allow for northwestern parts of the forecast area, especially toward the I-64 corridor and Bluegrass region, to stay mostly if not completely dry, as shower activity becomes more confined with time closer to the stalled front across southeastern Kentucky. Temperatures tonight will likely cool into the 50s, especially for northern areas behind the cold front, while lower to mid 60s for lows are expected toward the TN border to the south of the stalling front. Thursday's highs will be below normal for northern and central parts of the forecast area, likely around 70 degrees under persistent cloud cover and shower chances, with highs closer to normal near and south of the front near the TN and VA borders. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 302 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026 The forecast period begins with the region likely situated north of a frontal zone Thursday night as a shortwave in southwest flow approaches the region. This should support the boundary lifting north as a warm front as a sfc wave rides into the OH Valley. With the northwest lifting warm front, it is probable that chances of convection will spread north through the overnight period Thursday night. Overnight lows are still expected to be mild as the warm front lifts north across the area. This warm front will cross the region on Friday,serving as the catalyst for widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms throughout the day as another wave moves along the boundary and treks toward the Great Lakes for Friday night. While marginal thermodynamic indices will once again favor pulse-type, non-severe convection, the primary hazard shifts toward heavy rainfall and high precipitation efficiency. This boundary likely remains north of the area to start the weekend, before sagging back into the OH Valley and stalling to end the period. Passing disturbances and the moist airmass, with PWs per the 12Z LREF generally in the 1.3 to 1.7 inch range, or the 90th percentile, should at least be conducive for a diurnal uptick in convection for Friday to Monday. The 12Z Tuesday LREF event totals through 8 PM EDT on Monday have a min to max range of 0.75 inches to near 7 inches, while the 25th to 75th percentile range from 1.5 or 1.75 inches near the VA border to 3.75 inches in the north and west. Recent deterministic guidance projects widespread QPF amounts ranging from 2.00 inches in the Lake Cumberland area to 2.75 inches across northeastern portions of the forecast area, with lesser amounts near 1.5 inches in southeastern KY near the West Virginia and Virginia borders, due to local downsloping effects. As a side note, since the area is dry, heavy rainfall on top of moisture starved ground could create runoff issues leading to potential hydrologic issues. Ultimately, this period will highlight a distinct regime shift toward a much wetter synoptic setup, a stark difference from the persistent dry pattern observed over the last few weeks and months. Due to persistent cloud cover and rain, daytime highs will remain capped in the upper 70s to mid 80s, while overnight lows drop into the lower to middle 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday) ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026 Valley fog has developed in and around locations that saw rain during the afternoon and evening Tuesday, including at least briefly at KSME and KLOZ. This fog may continue intermittently through 09z-12z this morning, or until increasing lower cloud cover provides sufficient insolation to dissipate fog. Otherwise, the forecast features widespread VFR gradually diminishing to sub-VFR conditions as shower and thunderstorm activity increases through the morning and afternoon, with activity become more showery in nature after about 23z-02z, as the instability is mostly tapped out by that time as a weak cold front stalls from near KSJS to KJKL to north of KSME around 00z Thursday. Widespread MVFR or lower conditions are then likely after 00z as the front remains across the area and shower activity continues through the end of the TAF period. Thunderstorm activity will be most prevalent in the afternoon period, and a few storms could be on the strong side with gusty winds and hail. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...CMC SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...JP/VORST/CMC AVIATION...CMC  168 FXUS65 KPIH 201025 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 425 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost & freeze conditions persist through the rest of the week - Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and Thursday - Temperatures return to 10-15 degrees ABOVE AVERAGE over the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1209 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Trends still point toward an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms later today and continuing through Thursday afternoon. Low pressure drops south out of Canada and actually deepens as it swings across the state. At the moment, we may see little to no chance of precipitation once we get into the Stanley Basin and Wood River Valley. Precipitation amounts range from just a few hundredths to closer to 0.25" across portions of the eastern and southeast highlands. In reality, wherever we can get heavier showers or bands to develop, 0.25" can easily be achieved through tomorrow. Looking at probability forecasts, the higher end amounts in any given 12 hour period do indicate that 0.30-0.50" could occur in these situations. It will be breezy occasionally in the next 36 hours, with the only impact coming Thursday with gusty northeast winds on American Falls Reservoir. We will likely exceed thresholds for a northeast wind event and a LAKE WIND ADVISORY needed down the road. It will be just cold enough that we will will see some light snow accumulations on highest peaks and ridgelines as well. It looks like frost/freeze conditions (outside of typical colder spots this time of year) may linger through Saturday morning. We have a FREEZE WARNING and FROST ADVISORY for the Snake Plain and Magic Valley for this morning. For tonight, a FROST ADVISORY may be needed for portions the Arco Desert and INL area. Friday morning will likely see freeze conditions across most of the Snake Plain, and frost conditions in rural spots Saturday morning. We do eventually warm back up, but it won't be until we return to southwest flow over the weekend and early next week. We will be well into the 70s and 80s for afternoon highs. With the next low moving into the region starting Tuesday, we will quickly drop back into the 60s (based on the latest Blend of Models forecasts) by midweek. We will likely also not be shower or storm free ahead of that storm. We continue to see small surges of moistures which COULD set of a few light showers/sprinkles and thunderstorms. Right now, we are keeping any potential at 15% or less until Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 418 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 We will see showers and isolated thunderstorms spreading across central and eastern Idaho through the next 24 hours. We are expecting to remain VFR through the period, although if we get heavier precipitation to fall at a particular airport, we could quickly drop to VFR conditions. The pattern suggests that PIH, IDA, and DIJ will be most impacted. BYI and especially SUN will be on the edge of any more widespread area of precipitation, but certainly some showers are not out of the question at those TAF sites. We are maintaining VCSH at DIJ, IDA, and PIH for the latest update. It is expected to see that converted to -SHRA with some mention of thunderstorms later today and certainly through the period, as isolated storms are possible after sunset. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for IDZ051-053>055. Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for IDZ052. && $$ DISCUSSION...Keyes AVIATION...Keyes  230 FXUS61 KALY 201027 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 627 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Areal coverage of showers associated with incoming cold front for today continues to decrease. Also, severe threat has shifted even farther south, with any Marginal Risk area remaining south of the ALY forecast area for today. Models continue to disagree on the handling of precip for this weekend. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated to scattered showers remain possible today with incoming cold front. A few non-severe thunderstorms are possible across the mid Hudson Valley, western MA and NW CT late this morning through mid afternoon. 2) A return to more seasonable temperatures is expected Thursday into Friday with the next chance for a widespread rainfall over the weekend, although the exact timing, duration and amount of rainfall is still uncertain. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Incoming cold front tracks east/southeast across the region this morning through mid afternoon. Limited instability and upper level forcing should keep shower coverage isolated to scattered for most areas, with some areas receiving little or no rainfall today. Closer to I-84 including the mid-Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, NW CT and the Berkshires, there might be just enough instability (MU CAPE generally 500-750 J/kg) for a few thunderstorms. However, overall limited instability should keep any thunderstorms below severe limits. For areas near and north of I-90, the isolated to scattered showers should occur mainly this morning, though a couple of passing showers/sprinkles could linger into late afternoon/evening. South of I-90, showers/thunderstorms are expected late this morning through mid afternoon. The front will slow down south of the region tonight as a weak wave of low pressure tracks along it. This may allow showers to linger well into the night close to I-84, with some showers possibly persisting into Thursday morning in these areas before ending. KEY MESSAGE 2... In the wake of the cold front, a return to seasonably cool conditions is expected. In fact, low temperatures Thursday night may drop into the lower/mid 30s across portions of the southern Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, eastern Catskills, the Lake George/Saratoga region and souther VT. As of May 21, the growing season will be underway in all portions of the Albany forecast area, including the southern Adirondacks. Some frost advisories may be issued for portions of these areas for Thursday night, with other areas dropping into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Models continue to vary regarding potential for rainfall this weekend, with main complication stemming from downstream upper level low across Atlantic Canada, along with disturbances rotating around its western periphery. Depending on the timing and strength of these disturbances, a confluent upper level flow may persist across northern/eastern New England, limiting the north/east extent of stratiform rainfall. As of now, it appears that the best chance for rain on Saturday will be mainly south and west of Albany, with rain chances then slowly increasing from southwest to northeast Saturday night into Sunday. A separate upper level disturbance may bring additional showers for a portion of Monday. Should the aforementioned confluent flow hold on longer, areas north and east of Albany could remain dry for a good portion of the upcoming weekend, while a weaker confluent upper level flow (and more progressive downstream shift of the upper level low/trough) could result in a more widespread rainfall across the region. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 12z Thursday...Flying conditions are VFR at all terminals as of 6:25 AM EDT. Mainly VFR conditions expected through today,with increasing mid-level clouds ahead of a cold frontal passage this morning/early afternoon. A few showers are possible with/ahead of the cold front. Best chance for any flight category reductions with showers is at POU this afternoon. Otherwise, mid-level clouds scatter out behind the front this afternoon and evening, but plenty of high clouds remain around through the night. With the cold front lingering just south of our region tonight, a few showers are possible again at POU towards the tail end of the TAF period, with MVFR vsbys possible in these showers. Winds increase to 5-10 kt from the W/SW early this morning, with gusts to around 20 kt developing shortly after the start of the TAF period as well. Winds this afternoon strengthen to 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt, strongest at ALB/PSF. Gusts generally subside within a couple hours of sunset, with winds veering to the NW at 5- 10 kt. After 06z, winds switch to the N/NE, still at 5-10 kt, lasting through at least the end of the TAF period. Outlook... Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...27/24 AVIATION...35  399 FXUS62 KTAE 201031 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 631 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 631 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 - A HIGH RISK of rip currents at area beaches into the Memorial Day weekend. Beach- goers are urged to consult lifeguards on surf conditions and discouraged to enter the surf if red or double red flags are flying. - Hot afternoon temperatures are expected through this weekend. Inland high temperatures will most commonly reach the 90 to 95 degree range. Minor to Moderate heat-related impacts are expected, affecting those who are sensitive to heat, and some health systems and industries. - Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms continue through Friday. Coverage will then increase over this weekend into early next week. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with stronger storms. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through next Tuesday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Upper ridging extends from the Bay of Campeche northeast through the tri state region into the Carolinas and off the mid Atlantic coast. To the west, longwave troughing extends through the Rockies southwest to off the Baja coast. In between the trough and ridge lies a cold front from the Great Lakes southwest to Texas. This front will edge slowly over the next few days to northern Alabama and Georgia while the upper ridge shifts east. With the shifting of the ridge east into the weekend, this will allow higher PWATs (1.6- 1.8 inches) to shift from west to east through the area while drier air to also shift southeast into the Florida peninsula. Rain chances today will primarily be associated with the Emerald Coast seabreeze where higher PWATs reside with development in the mid afternoon hours shifting north into the evening hours. Rain chances Thursday and Friday will be relatively low (20-30%) before losing some of the influence of the ridge as it heads east. Rain chances gradually increase this weekend into early next week with the better chances Monday and Tuesday (30-60%) favoring seabreeze development and subsequent boundary interactions. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns. In the meantime, upper high translates to off the southeast US coast Tuesday which will act as a suppressor once again towards mid week next week, especially in the eastern half of the area where PWATs fall to 1.2 inches east with 1.8 inches west. Temperatures will run a few degrees above normal for this time of year with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Heat indices will run in the mid to upper 90s with around 100F in some spots this weekend with the increase in moisture. Minor to Moderate heat-related impacts are expected, affecting those who are sensitive to heat, and some health systems and industries. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Patchy fog is present at ECP this morning. The fog is expected to dissipate soon after sunrise. SCT to BKN skies are expected throughout the day today with showers/thunderstorms possible around the ECP and DHN terminals this afternoon and evening. Light easterly to southeasterly winds are on tap for this afternoon with VFR cigs outside of any thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature into early next week. This will maintain light to occasionally moderate south to southeast winds and seas of 1-3 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon first in the Florida panhandle and move north into southeast Alabama later today and then this evening across the southeast Florida Big Bend. Moving forward into the weekend, chances for afternoon and evening showers and storms increase with a majority of the districts standing at a 30-60% chance. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns. Afternoon dispersions are fair to good each day and afternoon humidities are well above critical levels. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Heavy downpours beneath the core of afternoon and evening thunderstorms may lead to localized and short-lived nuisance flooding in urban or poor drainage areas, mainly from Saturday onward as thunderstorm coverage increases and the air mass moistens further. Larger scale flooding and river flooding are not expected for the next 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 91 71 92 71 / 10 0 20 0 Panama City 87 72 87 73 / 30 0 0 0 Dothan 90 69 90 68 / 50 20 10 10 Albany 91 69 92 70 / 10 0 20 10 Valdosta 92 70 93 70 / 10 10 10 10 Cross City 92 70 92 72 / 10 20 20 0 Apalachicola 85 73 86 75 / 10 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM....Scholl AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...Haner  292 FXUS63 KSGF 201030 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 530 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm chances (20-50%) across the area through sunrise, dissipating into mid-morning. Residual flooding from previous heavy rainfall persists through today. - Shower and thunderstorm chances (60-90%) on Thursday and Friday. There is a slight risk for excessive rainfall/localized flooding Thursday night through Friday. - Additional rain chances (40-70%) throughout the weekend with a gradual warming trend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 This Morning: A cooler morning to start this Wednesday with temperatures in the lower to middle 50s. Widespread stratiform clouds continue to envelop the area, with patchy areas of drizzle and fog resulting in reduced visibilities. As we progress through the overnight period, the 850mb front sinks through the region in the vicinity of lingering jet dynamics and lift. This will support scattered showers through sunrise, with any thunder chances (< 20%) remaining marginal at best. No severe or flooding are expected with this activity. As we progress into mid to late morning, any lingering showers will dissipate giving way to a cool and cloudy day across the Ozarks. This Afternoon-Tonight: A cooler afternoon across the area with NBM keeping highs in the middle to upper 60s areawide. Light east-northeast winds accompany the cooler temperatures. Residual flooding lingers through today, as heavy rainfall amounts resulted in rises along area waterways. The period of dry time will be short-lived as rain chances slowly increase overnight tonight into Thursday morning as additional mid-level energy ejects out across the central CONUS. Lows fall into the 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Thursday-Friday: Ensemble guidance are in good agreement that shortwave energy translates through southwest flow and overspreads the region on Thursday. Moisture return will gradually tick up through Thursday across the southern half of the area with dewpoints reaching into the lower to middle 60s. Meanwhile, temperatures gradually rebound into Thursday with highs warming into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Widespread shower and thunderstorm chances will be slow to overspread the area until Thursday evening/night, and persist into the overnight/Friday morning. Rain chances remain high (70-90%) through Friday morning, before gradually shifting east with the system's passage on Friday afternoon/evening. The environment remains rather benign in terms of supporting any severe weather, with instability limited across the area. However, any convection that does occur will increase the potential for heavy rainfall. WPC has highlighted the areas along and west of Highway 65 in a Slight (2 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook on Thursday into Friday. This aligns well with our messaging, as the primary concern with this late week system will be localized heavy rainfall and flooding. Soils remain saturated across portions of the area, in particular along and north of Interstate 44. Elevated streamflows are being observed in this area. As more CAMs come into sight, we will work to pin down the area of heaviest rainfall and associated amounts. This Weekend: As we progress into the weekend, a gradual warming trend continues over the area with highs returning to near average in the upper 70s to lower 80s. High temperatures each day this weekend could be impacted by cloud cover and additional rain chances. Confidence is gradually increasing in weekend rain chances (40-70%), though there remains some uncertainties on the exact timing and location of each system. For the time being, we are not expecting all-day washouts. Next Week: An active pattern looks to persist into early next week as progress into late May. Additional rain chances are in the forecast, though confidence is low on the extent of coverage into early next week. Check back for updates. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 530 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Scattered light showers are moving through the area this morning, with low chances for an isolated thunderstorm or two. This activity will linger through the mid-morning before dissipating. Otherwise, LIFR to IFR flight conditions persist this morning with ceilings around 300 to 500 feet, and visilbilities as low as 2 to 4 miles. Flight conditions slowly imporive through the mid-morning, with ceilings improving to around 700 to 1500 feet. It is not until this evening that ceilings may improve to VFR. Light northeast winds at 5 to 10 knots through today. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Perez  426 FXUS61 KBGM 201032 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 632 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor adjustments were made to the expected rain chances and timing today. Today's forecast high temperatures were lowered to be in line with the hourly NBM data. Northwest winds and wind gusts were nudged up a few MPH, especially across the Mohawk Valley and surrounding areas of Central NY. Probabilities for thunderstorms this afternoon were adjusted as well, with thunder chances now only extending across most of NE PA and the southern Catskills. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A front will drop south and east through the area today, bringing more clouds, showers, chances for thunderstorms and lower temperatures. Showers may linger into Thursday morning for portions of Northeast PA as the front temporarily stalls nearby. 2) Much cooler weather is expected Thursday afternoon, and Thursday night as high pressure builds over the area. Our weather should remain dry most of the day on Friday, with seasonable temperatures. 3) Confidence continues to increase in a rainy, cool start to the holiday weekend. There could eventually be some short dry periods later on Sunday and into Memorial Day, but high uncertainty remains on the timing of these. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The cold front is back across southern Ontario early this morning, with warm temperatures still in the mid-60s to mid-70s as of 2 AM EDT. The front will slowly drop south and east through the morning hours, along with a few scattered showers across Central NY. The front looks to reach the NW Finger Lakes and Syracuse areas by mid morning, with temperatures falling back into the low or mid 60s and overcast skies developing. The front reaches the NY southern tier by early afternoon, with temperatures falling into the upper 60s for the afternoon hours. Further south, across NE PA it should still warm up between about 75 to 85 degrees for several hours late this morning and early afternoon. Instability will build, with upwards of 500 J/kg of MLCAPE possible. As the front then approaches for the afternoon hours scattered to numerous showers and t'storms are expected to develop for the Wyoming Valley and Poconos region. At this time no severe storms are expected across our forecast area, as SPC has shifted the Marginal Risk category just south and east. The front looks to stall near or just south of our NE PA zones heading into tonight. A wave of low pressure then rides north and east along the boundary on Thursday; this could bring another round of showers to NE PA and/or the southern Catskills, depending on exactly where this front and low pressure center end up. Confidence is low to moderate on expected rainfall and PoPs for NE PA Thursday morning, and for now the stuck with the ensemble (NBM) consensus...which only gave slight chance to low end chance probabilities for rain. KEY MESSAGE 2... For Central NY, Thursday should feature dry weather with decreasing clouds through the day. Temperatures will drop back into the 60s for highs, which is slightly below average. Thursday night will see good radiational cooling conditions with high pressure overhead. Winds will be light and skies mostly clear. Blended in some of the colder guidance into the official forecast for overnight lows. Expect temperatures to drop between the upper 30s to mid-40s for most locations, although a few outlying areas could see mid-30s. Will need to keep a close eye on temperature trends to see if any frost would be possible. High pressure remains in place through the day on Friday, with some increase in clouds later in the afternoon and evening as the next front approaches from the south. High temperatures recover to near seasonable levels, in the mid-60s to low 70s with light southeast winds. KEY MESSAGE 3... The next wave of low pressure rides into the area along and advancing front from the Ohio Valley Friday night into Saturday. This will bring a period of steady, chilly rain to the area in this timeframe. High pressure retreats off to the north and east, but supplies some very cool low level air into the region. Temperatures may hold in the 50s all day Saturday with the overcast and wet conditions. Sunday features morning showers, with some drying and perhaps some breaks of sunshine in the afternoon. Temperatures are still cool, in the 60s for most locations. Another front moves through with more rounds of rain Sunday night into Monday morning; again there could be some drying by Monday afternoon if current timing holds. Seasonable temperatures in the low 70s expected. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... With the cold front slowly progressing, ceilings will begin to fall to MVFR/Fuel Alt through the next few hours. Minimal rain showers is expected, and if it were to move over a terminal, it's expected to be brief. Conditions are expected to return back to VFR going into the afternoon hours. A PROB30 group for storms was kept for AVP, though confidence is decreasing, but not low enough yet to take it out. Northwesterly winds will increase as the front progresses before calming back down around 23z. Outlook: Wednesday night through Friday...Mainly VFR. Friday night through Sunday...Periods of rain and embedded thunderstorms likely along with associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJM AVIATION...KL  453 FXUS62 KTAE 201033 CCA AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 633 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 631 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 - A HIGH RISK of rip currents at area beaches into the Memorial Day weekend. Beach- goers are urged to consult lifeguards on surf conditions and discouraged to enter the surf if red or double red flags are flying. - Hot afternoon temperatures are expected through this weekend. Inland high temperatures will most commonly reach the 90 to 95 degree range. Minor to Moderate heat-related impacts are expected, affecting those who are sensitive to heat, and some health systems and industries. - Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms continue through Friday. Coverage will then increase over this weekend into early next week. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with stronger storms. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through next Tuesday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Upper ridging extends from the Bay of Campeche northeast through the tri state region into the Carolinas and off the mid Atlantic coast. To the west, longwave troughing extends through the Rockies southwest to off the Baja coast. In between the trough and ridge lies a cold front from the Great Lakes southwest to Texas. This front will edge slowly over the next few days to northern Alabama and Georgia while the upper ridge shifts east. With the shifting of the ridge east into the weekend, this will allow higher PWATs (1.6- 1.8 inches) to shift from west to east through the area while drier air to also shift southeast into the Florida peninsula. Rain chances today will primarily be associated with the Emerald Coast seabreeze where higher PWATs reside with development in the mid afternoon hours shifting north into the evening hours. Rain chances Thursday and Friday will be relatively low (20-30%) before losing some of the influence of the ridge as it heads east. Rain chances gradually increase this weekend into early next week with the better chances Monday and Tuesday (30-60%) favoring seabreeze development and subsequent boundary interactions. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns. In the meantime, upper high translates to off the southeast US coast Tuesday which will act as a suppressor once again towards mid week next week, especially in the eastern half of the area where PWATs fall to 1.2 inches east with 1.8 inches west. Temperatures will run a few degrees above normal for this time of year with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Heat indices will run in the mid to upper 90s with around 100F in some spots this weekend with the increase in moisture. Minor to Moderate heat-related impacts are expected, affecting those who are sensitive to heat, and some health systems and industries. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Patchy fog is present at ECP and VLD this morning. The fog is expected to dissipate soon after sunrise. SCT to BKN skies are expected throughout the day today with showers/thunderstorms possible around the ECP and DHN terminals this afternoon and evening. Light easterly to southeasterly winds are on tap for this afternoon with VFR cigs outside of any thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature into early next week. This will maintain light to occasionally moderate south to southeast winds and seas of 1-3 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon first in the Florida panhandle and move north into southeast Alabama later today and then this evening across the southeast Florida Big Bend. Moving forward into the weekend, chances for afternoon and evening showers and storms increase with a majority of the districts standing at a 30-60% chance. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns. Afternoon dispersions are fair to good each day and afternoon humidities are well above critical levels. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Heavy downpours beneath the core of afternoon and evening thunderstorms may lead to localized and short-lived nuisance flooding in urban or poor drainage areas, mainly from Saturday onward as thunderstorm coverage increases and the air mass moistens further. Larger scale flooding and river flooding are not expected for the next 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 91 71 92 71 / 10 0 20 0 Panama City 87 72 87 73 / 30 0 0 0 Dothan 90 69 90 68 / 50 20 10 10 Albany 91 69 92 70 / 10 0 20 10 Valdosta 92 70 93 70 / 10 10 10 10 Cross City 92 70 92 72 / 10 20 20 0 Apalachicola 85 73 86 75 / 10 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM....Scholl AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...Haner  432 FXUS63 KLMK 201032 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 632 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Periods of showers and storms will move across southern Indiana and portions of north-central Kentucky this morning. Heavy rainfall will be possible with localized flooding across southern Indiana. * Another round of showers and storms is expected this afternoon. A marginal risk of strong/severe storms exists across the east- central and eastern Kentucky with damaging winds being the main threat. * Busy weather pattern will ramp back up late Thursday and through the holiday weekend with episodic bouts of showers/storms with heavy, but welcome rainfall. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 316 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Broad southwest flow continues aloft across the region this morning. A small perturbation moving northeast within this flow has helped kick off a persistent band of showers/storms from western Kentucky into southwestern Indiana. This corridor of convection is rooted within the low-level jet axis and also resides in a PWAT plume extending from west TN northeastward into southern Indiana. Within this corridor PWAT values are running in the 1.5-1.9 inch range. This convection will move off to the northeast through the remainder of the overnight hours and move across southern Indiana where recent rainfall has fallen in the last 24-36 hours. The convection has generated some cool outflow which is surging eastward toward the I- 65 corridor. PWAT values do decrease markedly east of the I-65 corridor. Given that we have some elevated instability in the I-65 corridor and points west, expect this outflow to generate some additional shower/storms from Hartford northeast through the Louisville metro over the next few hours. Shear remains very marginal here, so severe weather is not anticipated. However, a swath of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall will move across saturated soils over southern Indiana and may produce some local hydro issues this morning. Current flood watch over southern Indiana continues to look good and no headline changes will be made with this forecast. Moving into the daytime hours, surface cold front off to our west this morning will move into the region this morning and into the afternoon hours. As this occurs, another small perturbation aloft will move northeast across the region and produce another round of convection across the region. As the cold front heads eastward through Kentucky, some diurnal heating will be noted across the central and eastern portions of the forecast area. MLCAPE is forecast to rise into the 800-1300 J/kg range this afternoon. Model soundings show rather poor mid-level lapse rates, but the low-level lapse rates are pretty steep. That, along with convergence along the front should allow widespread showers with some embedded thunderstorms to track across the region. Some of the storms could be strong this afternoon, mainly east of the I-65 corridor. Main threats will be heavy rainfall and gusty thunderstorm winds. Highs today will feature a gradient with readings only reaching the low- mid 70s across the west, with upper 70s to lower 80s out in the I-75 corridor. Surface cold front is expected to continue eastward this evening with showers ending from northwest to the southeast into the late overnight period. Cool northerly flow will usher in some cooler air into the region. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-upper 50s across southern Indiana with lower 60s across southern Kentucky. For Thursday, we'll see a brief pause in the wet weather as the front stalls out to our south. Blended PoPs keep some chances of showers down across southern KY, but this looks a bit too aggressive and I expect those PoPs to decrease over the next few runs. Highs on Thursday will be a little cooler than normal with readings only reaching the lower 70s over southern Indiana and the northern half of Kentucky. Mid-upper 70s will be found over the southern part of Kentucky. The stalled out front will start to return northward late Thursday night as a warm front. Ahead of that warm front, another round of showers is likely to develop in advance of that feature. Lows will range from the upper 50s over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky to the lower 60s over southern Kentucky. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 316 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 For the extended portion of the forecast period, unsettled weather looks likely for Friday and through the Memorial Day weekend as broad southwest flow will remain in place across the region. Several weak perturbations aloft will move through the region bringing episodic bouts/rounds of showers and storms to the region. Now, this doesn't appear to be a total washout in all places. However, several rounds of showers/storms will be moving across the region and will bring heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds at times. The upper level pattern will flatten out a bit by Monday with a possible split flow pattern developing as we may get a cut off low to develop over portions of Texas. Confluent flow east of the cutoff low across the Ohio Valley will allow a frontal boundary to remain nearly stationary across the region and this feature will be a focus of renewed convective development through the end of the forecast period. Moisture transport into the region will be high and PWATs will be running well above climatology here. So periods of heavy rainfall are expected. This rainfall will be welcome to much of Kentucky that has seen a rather dry period of weather of late. QPF amounts of 2-4 inches will be possible across the region with locally higher amounts in areas that see training. While much of this rainfall could see good infiltration into the ground, we could end up seeing some hydro problems develop in areas that have seen recent rainfall. Highs on Friday will generally be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Temperatures for Saturday through Tuesday will see daytime highs mainly in the lower 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. Looking past the 7 day period, longer range guidance suggests that we could see some high latitude blocking redevelop over Canada which will result in a fairly amplified flow pattern across the CONUS. There is a pretty decent signal in the data suggesting above normal rainfall closing out May and heading into early June, though temperatures look to remain seasonal through this time frame. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 632 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Initial batch of convection has moved northeast of the area this morning. A second batch of convection is moving northeast out of NW TN and WKY and will primarily affect BWG/SDF/HNB this morning with showers and low cigs. Surface cold front is forecast to move through the region today and will likely kick off another round of showers/storms this afternoon, mainly in the LEX/RGA area. Cigs today look to be in the high IFR/low MVFR range with vsbys fluctuating between VFR/MVFR due to passing showers/storms. Convection is forecast to move off to the east this evening, but low cigs will likely remain in place overnight and into Thursday morning. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for KYZ032. IN...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJ LONG TERM....MJ AVIATION.....MJ  470 FXUS62 KGSP 201033 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 633 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The aviation discussion was updated to reflect the 12Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A cold front will approach the area today and then stall nearby through the weekend, resulting in cooler and wetter weather through Memorial Day weekend. The threat for severe thunderstorms and excessive rain appears to be low at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: A cold front will approach the area today and then stall nearby through the weekend, resulting in cooler and wetter weather through Memorial Day weekend. The threat for severe thunderstorms and excessive rain appears to be low at this time. One more seasonally hot day today, then the forecast gets more uncertain. The situation today looks similar to yesterday as the western Carolinas are under a col region of sorts, resulting from the TUTT low north of the Bahamas superimposed on the old upper ridge deamplifying off the East Coast. Meanwhile, a cold frontal boundary will be making slow progress east of the OH Valley and over the TN valley region. The upshot is that we won't have much in the way of support for deep convection or buoyancy through tonight, at least not east of the mtns. There will probably be enough differential heating over the mtns to support some shower activity, especially in light of the isolated development yesterday, so a chance was kept there. The showers should taper off within a few hours of sunset. Plenty of sun and a lack of convection should allow us to get about ten degrees above normal again, but the air mass remains dry enough to prevent any real heat problems. Thursday should be the transition day as the guidance moves the old cold front into our region even as mid/upper ridging tries to rebuild overhead. Guidance indicates that southwest flow aloft will become better established which should help provide more fuel while the frontal boundary provides more focus. Temperatures are a concern. Highs are forecast to be 5-10 degrees above normal again because the convection doesn't really get going until mid/late afternoon, but if that were to begin by midday, temps might not get as warm as expected. The overall risk for severe thunderstorms and heavy rain appears to be relatively low, but Thursday probably has the best shot of any day upcoming because of better sfc-based CAPE which tops out around 2500 J/kg and some weak southwesterly shear. Because of the convective nature of the expected precip, some will win and many will lose. The expectation is that the boundary will be pushed south across the fcst area Thursday night by high pressure moving across the Great Lakes. This transitory sfc high to our north will support a cold air damming wedge for at least Friday, dropping our temps ten degrees or more. The CAD signal appears stronger with this cycle. Some of the guidance has temps struggling to get out of the 60s in the typical wedge areas and that could happen if sufficient low level isentropic lift develops. Note that several of the models do just that and the raw model temps support undercutting the NBM substantially, so the expectation is that our high temp for Friday will drift cooler. Precip probs climb into the likely/categorical ranges and seem to stay there through the holiday weekend and don't improve until the middle of next week. The latest guidance supports this idea with a prolonged moisture flow from the Gulf because of a favorable mean trof/ridge pattern. Expectations should be managed at this point, but if the models stick with this idea, we could actually see enough rain to be beneficial across some parts of the region over the five day period. The QPF has been increased. At any rate, the drought shouldn't get any worse. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR should prevail at all terminals through the period. The only concern would be scattered showers/storms that may develop over the mountains this afternoon, though the latest model guidance keeps storms more isolated than we have in our forecast. Will maintain a PROB30 at KAVL anyway until there is more confidence in it not happening. Otherwise, light/variable wind through sunrise will become light SW to S once again, and a few stratocu are expected. Wednesday night should be quiet again, but clouds will start to increase late. Outlook: An approaching front and increasing moisture will bring a more active pattern for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms beginning Thursday afternoon and then continuing through the end of the week. Cold-air damming may produce widespread MVFR to IFR cigs thru the day Friday. The potential for overnight fog/low clouds will increase through the period as well. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ PM  501 FXUS66 KSEW 201035 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 335 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure aloft will begin to rebuild across Western Washington on Wednesday and remain in place into Friday for a return to some sunshine and warmer temperatures. The ridge will weaken over the upcoming holiday weekend for a cooling trend and a chance of rain by Memorial Day. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Broad upper-level troughing resides over western CONUS while a ridge continues to remain just offshore the PNW. Mid-high level cloud coverage is streaming overhead under northwest flow as the ridge axis stretches well into northern BC. Low stratus has developed again this morning across the coast, southwest interior and Puget Sound. It'll become more widespread as the morning progress before giving way to high clouds and filtered sunshine during the afternoon. High temperatures are forecast to be around average - in the 60s across the interior with lower 70s throughout the Chehalis River valley. Overnight lows will fall into the 40s. Upper-ridging is likely to amplify on Thursday before flattening on Friday. Temperatures will warm readily into the 70s to near 80 F across the interior for both Thursday and Friday. Coastal areas will see afternoon highs in the 60s with lows in the 40s area- wide. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Zonal flow aloft by Friday night along with more onshore flow towards the weekend. This should not only bring cooler temperatures, but also increase the chance for widespread PoPs into early next week. Sunday should feature additional cooling and cloud cover with precip chances increasing areawide Sunday night into Memorial Day. 41 && .AVIATION... High pressure is anchored offshore with N/NW flow over western WA today. The low level flow remains onshore. There are pockets of MVFR ceilings along the coast and in the interior this morning. The trend is for improving conditions and VFR by 18-21z in the interior and 21-00z along the coast. Low clouds will reform along the coast overnight. 33 KSEA...MVFR conditions this morning with improving conditions 18-21z. Light/variable wind becoming N/NW to 10 kt this afternoon. VFR conditions tonight. 33 && .MARINE...Onshore flow will prevail this week with high pressure offshore and lower pressure inland. Expect diurnal westerly pushes through the Strait of Juan de Fuca with highest wind and waves during the late afternoon and evening hours. A system Friday will bring elevated winds and seas over the Coastal Waters. 33 && .HYDROLOGY... The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated during this time as needed. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm. && $$  638 FXUS62 KFFC 201038 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 638 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New 12Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures continue through the wee with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. - Afternoon thunderstorms are possible along and north of the I-85 corridor this afternoon. - Increased rain chances return tomorrow through the weekend, especially across northern and western Georgia. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 456 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s and low 90s again this afternoon, with SW winds at 5-10 mph brining moisture back into the area. As a result, dewpoints across north and central Georgia will increase out ahead of a cold front pushing through the TN river valley area.This will increase our chance for diurnally driven thunderstorm activity during the afternoon and early evening. The best chance for pop up storms appears to be along and north of I-85. A few storms may have gusty winds, frequent lightning and small hail but the threat of severe weather remains low given the lack of shear and any lifting mechanism outside of heating. Storms will die out as the sun sets and temps will fall into the mid 60s again during the overnight hours. Tomorrow looks to be similar, although we're anticipating a wider coverage of showers and thunderstorms across northern GA as the approaching cold front stalls out along the GA/TN border. Like today, the threat for severe weather tomorrow will be low though a few storms could be strong to marginally severe during the late afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 456 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 The summer-like pattern strengthens through the long term outlook as near surface flow turns from northeast, around the coastal low, to the southwest with the building ridge. Moisture increases across the area with 50th percentile PWATs climbing over 1.6 to 1.7 inches by the weekend. As conditions moisten, temperatures will climb into the 80s to near 90F. The modest upper level jet will send shortwave energy across the TN valley through the period. This means PoPs and QPF will be greatest across north and northwest Georgia, decreasing to the south and east. The given thunderstorm mode will be conducive to locally heavy rainfall. It is likely that somewhere in the CWA will see more than 1" of rainfall each day. This, however, will be contrasted by areas which simultaneously receive little to no precipitation. A boom or bust scenario if you will. All that said, it is unlikely that anyone will go without at least some rain once the end of this period concludes. Storm potential through the period remains modest for pulse convection, with instability peaking around 1500 to 2500 J/Kg. A few strong storms cannot be fully ruled out at this time. The main hazards will be gusty winds and frequent lightning, as well as the potential for flash flooding should storm motion be particularly slow. As we get into next week, the upper level ridge experiences a Rossby wave break. This could quickly turn flow out of the northwest. When combining the available moisture, daytime instability, and upper level NW flow, conditions may be primed for a more classic summertime MCS set-up (I'm looking at you summer 2023 0-0). Models, of course, have a hard time realizing these types of scenarios this far out and forecast confidence more than 6-7 days out remains relatively low. Just something to keep an eye out for as we get through Memorial Day. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR start to the TAFs. Ceilings will become BKN after 14Z with a SCT CU field at 4-5k ft. Between 19-00Z, there is a low end chance for TSRA. Due to low confidence, will keep a PROB30 rather than issue a TEMPO group. Winds will be light this morning, but will stay on the SW side at 5kts or less. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Medium to low on TSRA. High on all elements. Vaughn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 92 67 89 66 / 10 10 60 50 Atlanta 89 69 86 68 / 30 40 70 50 Blairsville 85 62 80 61 / 40 40 80 80 Cartersville 89 65 85 66 / 50 50 80 60 Columbus 91 68 90 68 / 30 30 20 20 Gainesville 88 67 85 66 / 30 30 80 70 Macon 91 68 91 68 / 10 10 40 30 Rome 88 63 84 64 / 50 40 80 70 Peachtree City 89 66 87 66 / 40 30 60 40 Vidalia 92 68 92 69 / 0 0 20 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vaughn LONG TERM....SM AVIATION...Vaughn  730 FXUS61 KILN 201041 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 641 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased precipitation chances today. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers will linger today as a cold front moves to the southeast. A cooler airmass will settle into the region Thursday offering a temporary dry periods 2) Periods of rain with embedded thunderstorms are expected Friday with the potential for heavy rain. Additional chances for precipitation through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) A slow moving surface cold front over northwest Ohio will slip south to the Ohio River and stall out this morning. Mid and upper level flow remains southwesterly with a secondary mid level short wave pivoting northeast thru the Ohio Valley today. This will cause a weak surface wave to ripple along the front and moisture to override it. Anomalously high moisture is over the region with ILN/s 00Z sounding recording a PWAT of 1.5 inches. This breaks the daily record of 1.48 for 5/20 00Z soundings. Expect fairly widespread shower activity to linger into the day today and with the potential for some weak instability across the area (especially the southeast) some embedded thunderstorms will be possible into this afternoon. Any lingering pcpn across our area looks to taper off heading into this evening as the shortwave exits the area. With the PWAT plume of 1.5 to 1.6 inches across the area - the potential exists for an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall in local swaths with the heaviest across the south. This could lead to a lower end flooding threat, especially for areas across our Indiana counties, where 1 to locally 2 inches of rain fell with Monday's event. A cooler airmass and a temporary dry period will be observed on Thursday with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2) Additional rounds of mid level energy will lift northeast through the Ohio Valley Friday into the weekend. A southerly low level jet of 35-40 KTS will transport moisture back into the area with PWATs fcst to increase to 1.6 to 1.8 inches. This will lead to widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms. A signal for heavy rain exists and additional rainfall on Friday and Friday night of 1-2 inches is possible with the potential for locally 3+ inches. This potential flood threat will have to monitored as we get closer to the event.. In continued moist southwest flow, temperatures will moderate warmer through the weekend. The potential will exist for additional chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend but this will be at least somewhat dependent on the timing and placement of the mid level energy. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A slow moving surface cold front will stall out south of the Ohio River this morning. The mid and upper level flow remains southwesterly with a secondary mid level short wave pivoting northeast thru the Ohio Valley today. This will cause a weak surface wave to ripple along the front and moisture to override it. Several waves of additional showers and storms are expected to impact the TAFs until the shortwave exits the area this evening. CIGs are expected to quickly lower to MVFR and then IFR with the passage of the front. Probabilities continue to remain high from guidance to warrant IFR CIGs through majority of daytime hours and into this evening. CIGs may slowly improve to MVFR this evening with the potential for improvement to VFR late tonight across the northern TAF sites. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Friday into Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR AVIATION...AR  708 FXUS61 KRNK 201040 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 640 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Storms will develop across the mountains by late afternoon and will persist into the evening. Lesser chances east of the mountains, which will still be under the influence of the ridge, limiting storm chances. Have lowered temperatures across the board on Friday given strong wedging signal in short range guidance. An Air Quality Alert has been issued for Caswell, Rockingham, and Stokes Counties in NC through 12AM Thursday due to code orange for ground level ozone. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1: Multiple opportunities for precipitation through the weekend, beginning with a cold front today. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Multiple opportunities for precipitation through the weekend, beginning with a cold front today. A cold front is will approach the region from the northwest later today as an upper level trough and associated surface low pressure system slide east through southern Quebec and Ontario. Shear remains modest, but return moisture flow, along with strong surface heating should result in CAPE exceeding 1000-1500 J/kg by early afternoon. This, along with increased forcing from the approaching front should provide a favorable environment for storms to develop across the mountains by later this afternoon/evening. Storms could produce localized damaging wind gusts and some hail. Lingering subsidence from high pressure ridging should keep much of the Piedmont free of rain/storms through the evening. By Thursday, the cold front looks to become quasi-stationary across Virginia and the Tennessee valley. As this occurs, high pressure pushes across the Great Lakes region leading to east/northeast flow across the forecast area. This will lead to some isentropic ascent across the area as warm moist air from the south rides up over this cool but shallow pocket of air at the surface. With stable air at the surface, the threat for severe weather looks to be minimal; however, shower activity looks very likely with rain forecast throughout the day areawide. A few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out, especially across the VA/NC border region, where better instability overlap may occur closer to the stationary boundary. Wedging will strengthen on Friday as the surface high pressure over the Great Lakes moves northeast towards the Quebec/Ontario border. Given a more favorable high location and continued showers, temperatures will likely remain on the cooler side of guidance, so have trended Friday daytime highs lower. Repeated rounds of rain will occur throughout the weekend with continues southwest flow advecting moist air north over the wedging high pressure... While this may ruin outdoor holiday weekend plans, it will hopefully bring much needed rainfall to the region at a steady enough rate to provide some agricultural and drought relief to the area. Although repeated rainfall looks to occur into early next week, widespread convectively enhanced rainfall is not looking very likely, therefore flooding potential remains very localized. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Area-wide VFR flight conditions continue as high pressure remains dominant. Between 18-21z, scattered storms will begin to develop along the Blue Ridge and points west, which could bring sub-VFR to any terminal they impact. DAN/LYH will likely remain southeast of the convection, keeping VFR through the end of the TAF period. Showers and lower clouds could set in by late tonight east of the mountains as winds begin to turn gradually from the southwest to northeast with the arrival of a backdoor front. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Rain showers and thunderstorm chances continue through the weekendassociated with a stalled front through the region. This will lead to periods of sub- VFR at all terminals each day through the weekend. Note: Bluefield (KBLF) ASOS is currently experiencing a technical outage due to a major power supply failure. Replacement parts have been ordered. ETA of repair is currently unknown. AMD NOT SKED is being appended to its TAF. && .CLIMATE... Record-breaking heat is possible this afternoon. Here are the current records and our current forecast. Wednesday, May 20, 2026 Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Forecast High Roanoke 98 in 1934 70 in 1998 94 Lynchburg 96 in 1941 68 in 1902 94 Danville 97 in 1996 68 in 2018 96 Bluefield 87 in 1996 66 in 1996 83 Blacksburg 90 in 1934 66 in 1893 89 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ004>006. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMG/EB AVIATION...BMG CLIMATE...BMG/RCS  726 FXUS63 KARX 201041 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 541 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Staying cool and mostly dry until Friday with increasing rain chances. - Warmer this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Today - Thursday: Dry with Below Normal Temperatures An overall benign pattern expected for the next 2 days with dry conditions set to triumph. Surface high pressure, currently over the Central Plains, will shift east through the day tomorrow, sliding into the Great Lakes region by early Thursday. As the high moves through tomorrow, light northerly winds will prevail with plenty of sunshine to start the day before high clouds overspread the area from the east/southeast. Temperatures both tomorrow and Thursday will be below normal in the lower 60s. Unlike some of our previous post-frontal-passage, northwesterly-surface-flow events, the airmass moving in amidst the cold air advection is not as dry with dew points only falling into the mid 30s. This will help to prevent overnight lows from dropping too close to freezing to warrant any frost/freeze headlines. Friday - Sunday: Warming With Some Rain Chances Chances for rain look to return overnight into the morning on Friday. As a developing trough across the Northern US Rockies starts to deepen, southwest flow will begin to take shape over the Upper Midwest late Thursday. With the surface high pressure finally moving off to the east, this will help to mitigate some of the dry air in the lower levels. Deeper mid-level moisture will be pulled into the region and will interact with the passing shortwave trough through the day on Friday. With little to nothing in the way of surface forcing, PoPs remain pretty broad-brushed overall with widespread 30- 60 percents across the region for much of the day. As the upper trough pivots to the north and east into Western Ontario over the weekend, lingering shortwave energy and deep moisture will allow for continued low rain chances, even though forcing overall looks much more nebulous than Friday. Given the uncertainty in the location of best forcing, will continue with the blended guidance that generally caps PoPs at 25 percent after Saturday morning. Early Next Week: Much Warmer Temperatures from Friday onwards will be on an upward trend but should peak early next week as a fairly significant upper ridge builds across the Central CONUS in the wake of the departing shortwave trough. A dome of anomalously warm 850 mb temperatures (5- 15 degrees C above normal) over the Northern Plains will start to seep eastward into the Upper Midwest by Monday and continue into mid- next week. Combined with warm air advection from southerly surface flow, temperatures will be well above normal by Monday with highs in the low to mid 80s. This significant warm up is expected to continue through at least mid-week. .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR expected through the 20.06Z TAF period. A VFR stratus deck will linger in central Wisconsin through the morning hours, potentially grazing KLSE TAF site with FEW. Light winds gradually turn clockwise through the period. Next widespread aviation impacts expected Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 540 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR expected through the 20.12Z TAF period. Light winds gradually turn clockwise, increasing out of the east by the end of the period, strongest east of the Mississippi River Valley. Subsequent widespread aviation impacts and precipitation expected Friday. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BarendseAVIATION...JAR  676 FXUS66 KPDT 201040 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 340 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 .DISCUSSION... A warming pattern will continue into the end of the workweek as an offshore ridge axis amplifies and builds inland, bringing subsidence and benign sensible weather. Forecast high temperatures continue to trend higher through the 70s and 80s by the end of the week with limited HeatRisk of Level 1 which affects the most vulnerable to heat who also have no cooling or hydration. A backdoor surface cold front will be driven southwest across the region Wednesday night through Thursday morning, driven by an associated mid level shortwave just east of the region, flipping winds out of the northeast but having little impact on the warming trend into Thursday afternoon other than muting how warm the afternoon temps jump from the previous day. The day 7, the ensembles hint synoptic pattern developing an upper trough over the PAC NW, leading to cooler and wetter conditions May 26-27. Clusters 1-3 are in reasonable pattern agreement, with cluster 4 showing an alternative scenario and a 5% outlier placing a warm dry ridge over the region. The leadup to this may bring enhanced winds in the gaps areas over the weekend as the westerly winds return with strongest winds with potential for wind advisories over the usual windy spots like Kittitas Valley, Eastern Columbia River Gorge and the the Blue Mountain foothills. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... VFR condition are expected (95% confidence) for the entire TAF period as the only clouds remains cirrus clouds above 20kft and light winds under 10 kts everywhere with the exception of DLS where slightly more breezy winds come though the Gorge (10-20 mph), and YKM and RDM between about 5 pm and 11 pm. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 73 46 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 73 49 76 50 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 78 51 81 50 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 79 50 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 76 49 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 73 45 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 73 39 77 41 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 70 41 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 73 39 75 40 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 77 51 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...71 AVIATION...71  768 FXUS63 KARX 201042 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 542 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Staying cool and mostly dry until Friday with increasing rain chances. - Warmer this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Today - Thursday: Dry with Below Normal Temperatures An overall benign pattern expected for the next 2 days with dry conditions set to triumph. Surface high pressure, currently over the Central Plains, will shift east through the day tomorrow, sliding into the Great Lakes region by early Thursday. As the high moves through tomorrow, light northerly winds will prevail with plenty of sunshine to start the day before high clouds overspread the area from the east/southeast. Temperatures both tomorrow and Thursday will be below normal in the lower 60s. Unlike some of our previous post-frontal-passage, northwesterly-surface-flow events, the airmass moving in amidst the cold air advection is not as dry with dew points only falling into the mid 30s. This will help to prevent overnight lows from dropping too close to freezing to warrant any frost/freeze headlines. Friday - Sunday: Warming With Some Rain Chances Chances for rain look to return overnight into the morning on Friday. As a developing trough across the Northern US Rockies starts to deepen, southwest flow will begin to take shape over the Upper Midwest late Thursday. With the surface high pressure finally moving off to the east, this will help to mitigate some of the dry air in the lower levels. Deeper mid-level moisture will be pulled into the region and will interact with the passing shortwave trough through the day on Friday. With little to nothing in the way of surface forcing, PoPs remain pretty broad-brushed overall with widespread 30- 60 percents across the region for much of the day. As the upper trough pivots to the north and east into Western Ontario over the weekend, lingering shortwave energy and deep moisture will allow for continued low rain chances, even though forcing overall looks much more nebulous than Friday. Given the uncertainty in the location of best forcing, will continue with the blended guidance that generally caps PoPs at 25 percent after Saturday morning. Early Next Week: Much Warmer Temperatures from Friday onwards will be on an upward trend but should peak early next week as a fairly significant upper ridge builds across the Central CONUS in the wake of the departing shortwave trough. A dome of anomalously warm 850 mb temperatures (5- 15 degrees C above normal) over the Northern Plains will start to seep eastward into the Upper Midwest by Monday and continue into mid- next week. Combined with warm air advection from southerly surface flow, temperatures will be well above normal by Monday with highs in the low to mid 80s. This significant warm up is expected to continue through at least mid-week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 541 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR expected through the 20.12Z TAF period. Light winds gradually turn clockwise, increasing out of the east by the end of the period, strongest east of the Mississippi River Valley. Subsequent widespread aviation impacts and precipitation expected Friday. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barendse AVIATION...JAR  998 FXUS64 KLIX 201045 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 545 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 538 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous and widespread this afternoon through the weekend. 7 day rainfall totals will range from 4 to 7 inches in the northwest to less than an inch of much of coastal MS and extreme SELA. - Minor coastal flooding may slightly impact typically known problem areas like Waveland, MS today around midday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 538 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Updated PoP grids earlier to better reflect ongoing precipitation trends. Areal coverage has diminished somewhat over the last hour though. There could be a few hours this morning with very little precipitation, but expect redevelopment as things heat up. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Saturday) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Upper ridging over New England this morning, with a weak upper low stuck underneath it over the Bahamas. The main upper trough extended from Lake Superior to Arizona, but there were shortwaves over Missouri and Texas moving northeast in the southwesterly mid level flow. At midnight, an outflow boundary was over extreme northwest portions of the area to the west of Baton Rouge and McComb, while the true cold front extended from near St. Louis to near Dallas. A weakening band of showers and thunderstorms was just ahead of the outflow boundary. Temperatures around the area at midnight were in the 70s. The general upper pattern doesn't show a lot of change across our area through the end of the week. We stay in southwesterly flow with impulses moving through that flow at 18 to 24 hour intervals. Each impulse will have the potential to produce a few hours of showers and thunderstorms. Timing of individual impulses moving through the flow becomes increasingly problematic as we get further out in the forecast. Precipitable water values remain in the 1.7 to 1.9 range, which puts it close to the 90th percentile climatologically. So, any of these thunderstorms could put down a quick inch or two of precipitation. If repeat cells occur in a short period over an urban area, it's going to cause a problem. In the near term, there's not much agreement as to which area gets dumped on. A few areas could get several inches of rain while others get little or nothing. Actually more concerned about the cumulative effect on areas than on short term events. Between now and Saturday afternoon, it won't be a surprise if somewhere near Baton Rouge or McComb gets dumped on more than once, but confidence isn't high enough to pin point an area consistently to justify a flood watch just yet. Little day to day change in temperatures for the rest of the week. What will determine high and low temperatures is when does the rain occur. Areas that see thunderstorms in the late morning hours will be least likely to reach their forecast highs and lows. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 The active pattern will persist into the long term period as the active southwesterly flow aloft continues along with the series of impulses leading to more scattered to numerous showers and storms, especially when the diurnal cycle and each impulse match up in terms of timing. Overall, the pattern doesn't appear to change through the period. The higher QPF will reside west of I55 with somewhat lower rainfall amounts over the MS Gulf Coast closer to the upper level ridge that will remain parked over the northeast Gulf or western Atlantic. With PWATS nearing 2.0" at times and several rounds of convection, hydro concerns will continue to remain possible through most of the medium range with poor drainage and urbanized areas most at risk. Otherwise, temperatures will remain mild, but with cloudiness and higher rain chances, temps will be right around average for late May. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 538 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Wide range in conditions as sunrise approaches this morning, with several at IFR or lower (ceilings). Earlier convection has diminished significantly over the last 30 minutes or so. KHUM may be the only one to get TSRA in the next couple hours, but threat will increase at most terminals as temperatures heat up during the morning. Terminals should be at MVFR to VFR by about 15z. All terminals will have at least some threat of TSRA during the afternoon and early evening hours, with TEMPO and PROB30 used as threat suggests. Should be a break in convection overnight at most terminals, but could get some fog development at terminals that get rain. && .MARINE... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A large area of high pressure will remain situated over the western Atlantic through the week and into the weekend. This will maintain light to moderate onshore flow through the time. Winds will bounce around headline criteria with sustained winds right around to slightly below 15 kts, especially closer to the coast and west of the MS River. As for showers and thunderstorms, daily isolated to scattered showers will be possible each day however the bulk of the coverage will remain inland. With any thunderstorms locally hazardous winds and waves can be expected. Any minor coastal flooding that occurred yesterday should quickly abate and expecting tides to be a little lower each day through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW  034 FXUS63 KDTX 201046 CCA AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 646 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and cool through Friday. - Rain returns by Friday night and continues into Saturday. && .AVIATION... A notably cooler environment expanding across the area this morning. This will maintain areas of lower stratus going forward this morning. Latest observational trends highlight a predominant MVFR condition with this cloud field. This moisture will thin with time as cloud base increases with daytime heating, offering a trend toward lower VFR before eventually clearing this afternoon. Some lingering thicker upper level cloud may exist for the latter half of the day. Prevailing winds from the north to northeast at around 10 knots throughout the day. Dry and stable conditions tonight a high pressure builds into the area maintains widespread VFR with little evidence of anything more than perhaps some patches of cirrus at times. D21/DTW Convection...No thunderstorms are expected through Thursday. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for ceilings at or below 5000 ft this morning. Low this afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 356 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 DISCUSSION... A surface cold front progressed across the area overnight and a strong marine augmented pneumonia front continues to surge south and west early this morning. An impressive 10 to 25 degree temperature drop has been observed behind this feature. The frontal inversion traps a stratus deck overhead early today, but this shows signs of giving way with time as drier air arrives from the north. Some sunshine looks likely across the north later today but high cloud remains more pervasive across the south. 850mb temps settle in the 1 to 3 C range today, carrying a much cooler day with highs in the lower to mid 60s. North to northeast flow off Lake Huron holds temps near the lakeshore in the 50s. Upper jet streak entrance region overhead gains an increasingly anticyclonic orientation through the day, causing expansive high pressure to spread from the Midwest into the Great Lakes tonight. Another release of dense marine air spreads across the area late this evening and sends temps down into the 40s and dew points into the 30s. Could see some patchy frost Thursday morning in the cooler locales of the Saginaw Valley and Thumb if wind ends up going calm, but expectation is for the persistent northeast gradient and a veil of mid/high cloud to prevent widespread frost development. Light wind maintains a northerly component through much of Thursday, holding temperatures in a similar range compared to today. Strong deep layer stability and mid-level dry air ensure dry conditions through the day and most of Friday. Slightly milder conditions are forecast Thursday night with more cloud cover in the vicinity. Longwave trough over the High Plains helps direct a shortwave from the western Gulf coast toward the Great Lakes late Friday. The attendant surge of moisture brings relatively high confidence in widespread stratiform rain Friday night into Saturday, with a notable shift among the bulk of ensemble guidance toward a later start time - likely after sunset Friday. Placement of steadiest rain will be subject to the eventual track of low pressure and efficiency of warm conveyor moisture advection, but will note 12z LREF grand ensemble probabilities target southeastern portions of the area with a 50% chance to exceed 1 inch by Saturday afternoon. Deep layer southwest flow ensues Saturday as the wave lifts through, with warm advection boosting temps back into the 70s to finish the holiday weekend. Another shortwave capitalizes on burgeoning instability to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening. A warming trend follows next week with good consensus among grand ensemble 500mb progs in depicting an omega blocking ridge setting up over Ontario by late week. MARINE... High pressure will fill in across the Great Lakes this morning and will slowly move across the region tomorrow before washing out across the Continental Northeast by Friday morning. This will bring dry weather through the midweek period. Northwest and north flow in the wake of a cold front will bring some slightly elevated winds across north and north-central Lake Huron with gusts 20 to 25 knots. A heightened wave field reaching the Thumb nearshore prompted a Small Craft Advisory this afternoon and evening. As the high pressure system moves over the Great Lakes on Thursday, winds will begin to veer to the northeast and will hold northeast-east through Friday. The next low pressure system is then expected to enter the Great Lakes late Friday into Saturday which will bring the next potential for showers and thunderstorms. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for LHZ421-441. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....MR DISCUSSION...TF MARINE.......AM You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  042 FXUS63 KIND 201046 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 646 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch remains in effect until 2pm today across south central Indiana - Cooler mid week with a brief break from rain chances, before showers and storms return to the forecast late week into the holiday weekend && .DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)... Issued at 332 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Today - Precip along the cold front slowed southward progress this evening, but the boundary will continue to slowly sag through the region today. Upper level waves moving along the front will produce additional showers and a few thunderstorms today, primarily across the southeastern half of the area, and mainly through mid afternoon before rain chances rapidly taper off across the area. Will maintain the flood watch in place across the south given this expectation and continued plentiful deep moisture through midday. Relatively minimal instability will limit coverage and intensity of thunderstorms, with no severe weather expected. Tonight through Tuesday - High pressure will produce cooler conditions through much of the rest of the work week, with rain chances returning as a broad upper level low and associated shortwave disturbances pull a warmer and moist airmass back into the region. Model agreement is fairly high on what may end up being a washout on Friday, though discrepancies increase quite a bit beyond then. Blend PoPs have increased in the past 24 hours for the holiday weekend, though there is significant uncertainty in coverage at any one time, and changes are likely in the coming days. Nonetheless, rain chances and above normal temperatures will characterize the coming holiday weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 646 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Impacts: - Showers and a few thunderstorms, primarily from HUF/IND southeastward - Widespread MVFR ceilings with periods of IFR at BMG Discussion: A front has slowly moved just to our southeast overnight but continues to produce showers across the southeastern half of the area, and will do so much of today. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out but is too low probability for inclusion in the TAF. Trapped low level moisture is producing widespread MVFR ceilings with some IFR in far southern portions of the area. Most sites will remain MVFR at worst but periods of IFR are likely at BMG. Winds will generally be northerly early in the period, becoming more northeasterly with time. A gust or two cannot be completely ruled out, mainly at LAF, but is likely to be too sporadic for inclusion. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for INZ052>055-060>064- 067>072. && $$ AVIATION...Nield DISCUSSION...Nield  056 FXUS64 KTSA 201047 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 547 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1131 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Abnormally cool weather is expected through Thursday, with a slow warming trend then developing into next week. - Rain and thunder chances will continue daily through the forecast period, with periods of heavy rain. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1131 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Beneficial rain has fallen across eastern OK and northwest AR over the last 24 hours or so. Zones receiving the most rainfall have been: far northeast OK into far northwest AR and southeast OK, especially far southeast OK, where amounts have averaged between two to three inches. Most impressive amounts fell in parts of northeast Ottawa County, near the tri-state marker, where radar estimates around four inches or greater fell. A few elevated showers and sprinkles have developed along the I-44 corridor, near an elevated frontal boundary. Last few runs of the HRRR have been on the aggressive side of intensifying these showers/storms and expanding them into far eastern OK and northwest AR after midnight. Brief pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible if this scenario occurs as they progress eastward through the overnight period tonight. Additional rainfall amounts up to a quarter of an inch will be possible, especially across far northwest AR. Precipitation chances will begin to trend lower by or just after daybreak Wednesday and is forecast to remain mostly dry through the remainder of the day. A few isolated/spotty showers and storms are possible in the afternoon, mostly affecting parts of southeast OK and northwest AR, but no hazardous impacts are expected. Cloud cover will remain fairly thick through Wednesday morning, but some breaks and thinning of clouds may occur during the afternoon, especially portions of southeast OK. Cloud cover will keep temperatures generally below average through the daytime, with afternoon highs reaching the mid-upper 60s to lower 70s north of I-40 and mid-upper 70s to near 80 degrees south of I-40. If enough sunlight is able to break through the clouds, temps may warm up closer to average. Next best chance of widespread rain, with isolated thunderstorms, will arrive late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as another mid-level shortwave trough approaches the area from the southwest. Very limited instability and weak flow aloft will suppress any chance of severe storms, but moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible as PWATs increase between 1.5-1.75 inches across the area by sunrise Thursday morning. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1131 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Scattered to numerous showers, with embedded scattered thunderstorms, will likely be ongoing Thursday morning as a mid- level shortwave trough, downstream from its parent trough axis, pivots northeastward across the forecast area. Medium-range guidance is in good agreement an uptick in precipitation intensity will occur late in the morning through the afternoon. Despite an increase in moisture and instability by Thursday afternoon, wind shear is still expected to be weak and should keep any severe potential very low to none. Will continue to monitor trends in data. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be the main concern as it may lead to nuisance flooding and potentially flash flooding through the daytime Thursday and into Thursday night. Forecast uncertainty begins to increase by Friday, though models and ensembles continue to support the idea of multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain each day through the upcoming weekend. Signals in model data suggest the brunt of the heaviest rainfall will occur mainly late evening through the overnight period each night Friday night through Sunday night. Once again, severe potential is expected to be very limited to none as flow aloft remains too weak to support organized severe storms through the upcoming weekend. However, efficient elevated instability and abnormally high PWATs through the period will maintain the risk of heavy rainfall and potential flooding, including river flooding, each day/night. Mejia && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 547 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Shower and thunderstorms are ongoing along and just east of the Oklahoma/Arkansas border, with CAMs showing their dissipation by mid morning. Will keep a thunderstorm mention at the W AR sites for the first couple of hours of the TAF period. Most sites continue to have IFR ceilings, with the exception being FSM, and a slow improvement to MVFR is expected late morning into the afternoon. Existing visibility reductions in light fog should also improve by this time. Ceilings should decrease once again during the latter part of the TAF period, with additional showers or thunderstorms possible for the E OK sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 68 60 72 62 / 20 40 90 80 FSM 80 65 77 64 / 20 30 60 90 MLC 76 64 75 64 / 20 30 90 70 BVO 66 54 70 58 / 10 50 80 80 FYV 73 61 75 62 / 30 20 70 90 BYV 69 59 73 61 / 20 20 50 80 MKO 72 62 73 62 / 20 30 90 80 MIO 65 58 72 61 / 10 40 80 80 F10 71 61 73 61 / 20 40 90 80 HHW 80 65 74 63 / 30 40 90 80 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...22  073 FXUS63 KABR 201048 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 548 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Moisture chances increase to 60-70% on Friday. Rain amounts generally between 1/4 to 1/2 inch and a negligible threat for severe storms. - Turning warmer late weekend/early next week, about 10 to 20 degrees above normal with highs in the 80s to near 90. && .UPDATE... Issued at 547 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 UPDATE for 12z Aviation discussion && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Not much overall going on for the next several days. This mornings frost while still ongoing is only for this morning and the rest of the forecast is dominated by moderating temperatures and a pair of systems Friday. High pressure moves east today, with return (southerly) flow across the state. The gradient is about 8-12mb across the state, so a breezy (Gusts 20 to 35 mph) pair of days. The first shortwave of note lifts up across the southeast part of the state headed up along the MN/SD state line embedded within southwest flow mid-day Friday. The second wave takes a similar trajectory just slightly to the west Friday night. The short distance between waves means a mainly continuous precipitation mainly east river. Profiles are moist adiabatic/no instability with some shear, so mostly just rain. NBM mean is between 1/4 to 1/3 for the Missouri valley to around 1/2 inch in the Watertown area. The upper trough departs, with zonal flow aloft with increasing heights Sunday/Monday. Thats followed by a deepening trough across the western CONUS, all of which end up pumping warmer air aloft into the region. 850mb temperatures still are a standard deviation above climo, and as such Sun-Tues temperatures are forecast 10 to 20 degrees above normal. NBM dewpoints are also on the rise with broad/weak and sometimes intermittent southerly flow up through the Gulf and across the Plains. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 547 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ this morning for SDZ003-015-033-045-048. Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for SDZ004>011- 016>023-034>037-051. MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ039-046. && $$ UPDATE...20 DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...06  078 FXUS63 KGRR 201048 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 648 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather through Thursday night with frost possible tonight - Rain back in the forecast Friday into the weekend - Warmer and mainly dry early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 358 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 - Dry weather through Thursday night with frost possible tonight Surface high pressure will bring dry weather today through Thursday night. Clouds will gradually erode today with partly cloudy skies expected tonight. We may need a Frost Advisory tonight across Central Lower Michigan, but after coordination with other offices decided to hold off on the advisory/warning decision until later today as there may be a good amount of high clouds around yet which would affect low temperatures. In addition, there is a fair amount of wind in the lowest 2,000 feet. A partly cloudy day is expected on Thursday with mid and high clouds streaming in from the west. It will be cooler than normal today and Thursday with highs in the 50s and 60s today warming to the 60s on Thursday. Normal highs are around 70. - Rain back in the forecast Friday into the weekend Rain returns to the forecast on Friday and especially for Friday night and Saturday. A shortwave trough aloft lifts from the Southern Plains states into the Great Lakes for Friday night and Saturday with an upper trough then swinging through on Sunday. A healthy surge of moisture comes in on a low level jet Friday night and Saturday which is when we should have the highest concentration of showers and thunderstorms. This time frame will essentially be affected by a warm front of sorts with a cold front moving through on Sunday. Bottom line is the weather will be a bit unsettled during this time. - Warmer and mainly dry early next week Warmer and drier weather is expected early next week with zonal flow aloft trending towards ridging. At the surface, ridging will be in place. High temperatures will be warming into the 70s to near 80 degrees. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 648 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 There are some MVFR ceilings over portions of Lower Michigan drifting south from I-96 at 11z. These ceilings should affect most of the TAF sites this morning, with MKG being the exception. By this afternoon we are expecting VFR weather to prevail which will continue into tonight. North winds can be expected today at 7-12 knots. There will be occasional gusts into the 15-20 knot range. && .MARINE... Issued at 358 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Our typical advancing high scenario presents itself today on the first day of the Surf Zone Forecast season. A high building into the Great Lakes from the northwest winds increase northerly winds down the shoreline through an enhanced pressure gradient along the lakeshore. The combination of the high building in and thermal affects (troughing developing over the Lower Peninsula) due to a thinning of the low clouds produces stronger winds down the shoreline. The winds can be seen in the HRRR guidance. While we are not expecting many swimmers today (buoy water temps are in the lower 50s) we will still issue a Beach Hazard Statement as the season has begun. A corresponding Small Craft Advisory will be in effect as well, both running from 100pm into tonight. Winds go offshore late tonight and into Thursday which will lead to improving conditions. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 1 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight for MIZ056-064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ844>846. && $$ DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...Duke MARINE...Duke  075 FXUS63 KILX 201048 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 548 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and drier weather settles into the region through Thursday, though a few light morning showers remain south of Interstate 72. Daytime high temperatures will stay near 70 degrees. - Widespread rain will move across central Illinois Friday afternoon and evening. While rain is highly likely, total amounts remain uncertain and could range between 0.10 and 0.90 inches. - Temperatures warm into the upper 70s this weekend and continue to climb next week. High confidence exists that afternoon heat in the mid 80s will return by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Scattered showers may persist through late morning for areas near and south of Interstate 72 as a mid-level shortwave trough over SE Missouri tracks northeast along a baggy baroclinic zone. With the primary axis of instability now shifted toward the Ohio River Valley, any resulting precipitation should remain light, with a minimal risk of thunderstorms. Although HREF CAM guidance varies, with some models depicting dry conditions, the mean HREF QPF suggests totals up to one- tenth of an inch near I-72, with up to one-quarter of an inch possible south of a Taylorville-to-Paris line. Otherwise, a cooler and drier trend is taking shape today and Thursday as surface high pressure settles over the Great Lakes region. High temperatures may struggle to reach 70 degrees, while overnight lows drop into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Some forecast models also indicate that a lake breeze from Lake Michigan may penetrate as far inland as the I-74 corridor late this afternoon and again tomorrow, likely resulting in a cooler feel during the evening hours. The period of dry weather will be short-lived. By Friday morning, a series of shortwave impulses is expected to move northward from the lower-Mississippi Valley, preceding a more significant trough moving through the central United States. This shift in the atmospheric pattern will push a surface front into central Illinois around midday Friday. Consequently, widespread showers are anticipated across the forecast area Friday afternoon and evening, driven by isentropic ascent and warm-air advection. While limited instability should prevent severe convective weather, high precipitable water (PWAT) values may lead to high rainfall efficiency. Forecasted rainfall totals remain uncertain; the 100-member LREF global ensemble shows a 25th-75th percentile range of 0.10 to 0.90 inches for our forecast area. While confidence in the occurrence of rain is high, the specific accumulation amounts among model guidance remain highly variable. Though, it is worth noting that this same guidance currently focuses the higher QPF across SE Illinois. As the front shifts northward through the region on Friday, temperatures are expected to surge this weekend, with highs reaching the upper 70s both Saturday and Sunday. The main upper trough axis swinging through the Midwest may trigger additional scattered showers over the weekend. However, following the passage of the initial frontal zone on Friday, mid-level RH profiles appear significantly drier, resulting in substantially lower QPF for Saturday and Sunday. Heading into next week, global deterministic models suggest the development of a Rex block over the Plains. The progression of the associated upper low will ultimately dictate rain and storm potential through early next week. Current indications suggest that areas south of I-72 are best positioned for rainfall as the low portion of the block pivots up the Mississippi Valley while the high-pressure side loiters over the Corn Belt. There is strongermodel agreement regarding temperatures, with mid-to- upper 80s heat forecast to return by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 546 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Clouds will continue to lift and scatter through this TAF period as surface high pressure settles over the region. Winds will maintain a northerly component, perhaps becoming gusty this evening as a lake breeze attempts to penetrate as far inland as KBMI and KCMI. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...MJA DISCUSSION...MJA AVIATION...MJA  070 FXUS65 KFGZ 201048 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 348 AM MST Wed May 20 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions are in store for much of the week and into the weekend, along with typical afternoon breezes. && .DISCUSSION...Aside from weak troughing over the west, quasi- zonal flow largely remains in control through much of this week. Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions are expected through at least at least Saturday as a result. Winds look to generally remain light, however the aforementioned troughing will keep some typical spring- time afternoon breezes (20-30 mph) over the higher terrain. A weak low looks to eject off the Pacific into the southwest early next week. Ensemble guidance continues to signal towards an increase in PWATs from the resulting increase in moisture advection into Arizona. As of now, a few isolated afternoon showers and possibly thunderstorms look probable over the White Mountains as early as Sunday, then potentially spreading to more of the higher terrain for Monday and Tuesday. However, surface moisture at this point still looks fairly minimal, so much of the activity at this time looks to be high-based in nature. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 20/12Z through Thursday 21/12Z...VFR conditions. Daytime winds W/SW 5-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts, becoming light and VRB overnight. OUTLOOK...Thursday 21/12Z through Saturday 23/12Z...VFR conditions. Daytime winds W/SW 5-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts, becoming light and VRB overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Dry conditions with gradually warming temperatures. Winds west/southwest 10-15 mph with gusts 20- 25 mph each day, along with minimum afternoon RH 5-15%. Friday through Sunday....Continued dry conditions with warming temperatures. Winds west/southwest 5-15 mph each day. Minimum afternoon RH 5-15% on Friday, rising to 10-20% over the weekend. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Humphreys AVIATION...Humphreys FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  163 FXUS61 KGYX 201051 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 651 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Lowered low temperatures for Thursday night and mentioned frost away from the coast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Temperatures again rise into the mid 80s to around 90 for much of the coast and areas downwind of the mountains, but highs are not expected to be as hot as Tuesday. A cold front moves through during the day with the potential for a few gusty showers or thunderstorms. 2. Potential for frost Thursday night away from the coast. 3. The second-half of the week will feature cooler temperatures and drier conditions. This weekend looks to stay mostly dry with more unsettled weather potentially incoming for early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A cold front will move across the forecast area today. However timing will not be optimal for widespread strong to severe thunderstorms. Nevertheless, given high temperatures well into the 80s to near 90 on the coastal plain and across southern NH (with attendant steep low level lapse rates), a few strong wind gusts with isolated storms will be possible. Gradient winds will also be gusty, with gusts outside of any showers and storms 25 to 30 MPH. Timing of any convective activity will be late morning through early-mid afternoon for most zones. A much cooler air mass arrives for tonight and Thursday with dry weather expected. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Lowered min temperatures closer to MET/MAV consensus for Thursday night with dry high pressure moving overhead. This should set up an ideal night for radiational cooling with frost advisories likely needed for many interior zones away from the coast. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... High pressure moves in from the west, bringing cooler and drier conditions. This high pressure will keep more active weather to the south and west of the region. Over the weekend, a low may move into the area and bring meaningful rain to the area. However, high pressure does look to be strong enough to keep any precipitation out of the area until early next week. High pressure starts to slide to the southeast by Sunday and into Monday, with some showery weather possible early next week. High temperatures over the weekend will generally be in the 60s with lows in the lower 40s. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 12z Friday... Westerly gusts increase this morning, peaking in the afternoon around 25 to 30 KT. Brief MVFR conditions in isold to widely sct SHRA/TSRA possible through early to mid afternoon. VFR tonight through Thursday night. Outlook... Friday: VFR. Saturday and Saturday night: Increasing RA chances SW to NE, there remains uncertainty on exact timing. MVFR to IFR cigs may result. Sunday and Monday: MVFR possible with showers. && .MARINE... Gusty westerly winds around 25 kt nearshore today is the reasoning for a SCA for today. Offshore winds will be lesser. Strong high pressure then moves over the region for late week, resulting in mainly conditions below SCA over the waters. Seas of 2-4ft and light, variable winds are expected over the weekend and to start next week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150- 152. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ151-153-154. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barker/Cornwell/Ekster/Palmer AVIATION...Clair  118 FXUS64 KHUN 201049 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 549 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Medium to high chances (60-90%) of showers and thunderstorms are forecast today through early next week. No severe weather is forecast. - Locally heavy downpours and frequent lightning may accompany all thunderstorms and those with outdoors plans or events should monitor the forecast. && .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A broad area of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms continue to meander across northern Mississippi. This activity has drifted largely NNE into western Tennessee and has remained just west of the region. Overall, this activity has diminished over the course of the night, but would not be shocked if a few light showers (and maybe an elevated thunderstorm) clip portions of far northwest Alabama near the AL/MS border between 09-12z. The latest trend in guidance is for this overnight activity to dissipate late this morning. However, would expect some regeneration late this morning and into the afternoon hours as a weak front pushes into the Tennessee Valley. Despite the cloud cover, some partial heating in the morning hours will allow for some appreciable destabilization of the boundary layer by this afternoon -- with medium to high (60-90%) chances of showers and thunderstorms forecast during this afternoon timeframe. PWATs in the 85-90th percentile for this day will help make any convection that can develop capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. The dense cloud cover and higher rain chances will keep highs a few degrees lower, with highs peaking in the low to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 With weak shear remaining over the area near the front on Wednesday night and the loss of daytime heating, coverage should drop off significantly to low to medium coverage (20-50%). However, we will remain in a humid airmass, as the front moves north again into Thursday. This will keep overnight lows on the warm side Wednesday night, only dropping into the lower to mid 60s. As the front moves northward again on Thursday, additional shortwaves move along it. Combined with building instability as the front moves back over the area, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop (especially in the afternoon). Shear remains weak in most model output (less than 25 knots). That is a good thing given instability shown by guidance (1500-3000 J/KG). PWATS increase again though, so heavy downpours and frequent lightning will be fairly common. We will need to monitor for minor flash flooding issues Thursday afternoon. Things don't change through Friday, as the front doesn't move much and additional disturbances move along it through the area. This will keep highs Friday afternoon in the lower to mid 80s. There might be a bit stronger shear (0-3 km ~ 30 knots) Friday afternoon along with instability between 1000 and 3000 J/KG, just enough shear to have to worry about strong to marginally severe thunderstorm activity. Some minor flash flooding could occur on Friday as well. Overnight lows Thursday night will push higher into the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Southwesterly flow will largely persist aloft through the long term period. In addition, a series of shortwaves looks to ripple across the Southeast during the weekend and into early next week. At the surface, a cold front is slated to slowly make its way towards the Southeast through the weekend, but stall over the mid-Mississippi Valley and into the lower Ohio Valleyearly next week. This pattern will maintain low-level southerly flow over the region as well the continued advection of moisture up from the Gulf. Therefore, the rainy and summertime-like pattern is expected to continue through at least early next week, with daily chances (50-80%) of showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be temperated a bit by the higher rain chances each day; but, highs are forecast to generally reach the lower to mid 80s with lows in the 60s. Model PWATs generally remain between 1.6-1.8 inches throughout the period, which are over the 90th percentile when compared with Sounding Climatology from Birmingham (~1.6 inches) for May 23rd through 26th. Showers/storms will therefore be efficient rainfall producers, so we'll need to monitor for the increased risk of localized flooding for areas that receive rainfall repeatedly. As for the potential for any severe weather, guidance suggests that bulk shear values may reach around 30 knots periodically this weekend and into early next week. Therefore, there is a non-zero chance of a stronger storm or two, but confidence is low at this point. Regardless, if you have outdoor plans, make sure to stay weather aware, as lightning is dangerous whether or not a storm is severe! In addition, if you encounter any flooded roads, remember to Turn Around, Don't Drown! && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 549 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals early this morning, before clouds increase and ceilings drop late this morning into the afternoon. A front will move into the region, bringing medium to high chances of showers and storms. Have added a TEMPO during the main window of TSRA activity (20-00z). AWWs and amendments may be needed during this timeframe. After sunset, MVFR conditions will develop as low stratus settles in after convection wanes. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP SHORT TERM....KTW LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...AMP.24  121 FXUS65 KRIW 201050 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 450 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Virga showers will occur this afternoon, developing over the western mountains and moving over the Bighorn, Wind River and Upper Green River Basins. Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible with any passing shower. - Precipitation arrives from the northwest late tonight and becomes widespread Thursday. Cooler temperatures by Thursday evening could lead to a period of light snow in upslope- favored areas around Lander and Beaver Rim. - Forecast trends continue to favor widespread high temperatures in the 70s to mid 80s for the three-day Memorial Day holiday weekend. Other than a few late day showers, conditions look dry each day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 110 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 The warming trend continues today, but temperatures will still be below normal for central and southern portions of the CWA. Eastern portions of the Bighorn Basin will have near normal highs near 70F. Virga showers will be more widespread across the CWA this afternoon, as winds aloft back to the west-southwest through the day. Most of the showers will develop over the western mountains and move over the Bighorn, Wind River and Upper Green River Basins through the afternoon. Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible with these showers, as dewpoint depressions will range between 30 and 50 degrees. Winds outside of any potential outflow will be light, 20 mph or less. Precipitation chances will become more focused over northwestern portions tonight as the storm drops southward, gradually pushing east and south into the Bighorn Basin, the western valleys and the Upper Green River Basin through the overnight hours. Snow levels will be as high as 9500 ft early in the evening and drop to around 7000 ft by 12Z Thursday. The associated cold front with this incoming storm system will drop southward over the CWA through the overnight hours as well, extending along a Casper-to-Riverton-to Kemmerer line by 12Z Thursday. The front will then slowly push through Natrona and Sweetwater counties through the rest of the morning, with a leeside low developing over northeast portions of WY by 18Z. The aforementioned area of precipitation will continue to move over the CWA through the rest of the day. Model trends have warmed the associated 700mb cold pool that pushes through the Bighorn and Wind River Basins during the afternoon and are now forecasted to be around minus 4C/minus 5C (snow levels as low as 6000 ft). Areas along and north of a Meeteetse-to-Lovell line could still see rain changing over to snow after 18Z. However, precipitation looks to end during the afternoon along a Jackson-to-Cody-to-Lovell line as drier air begins to advect in from the northwest behind the storm. Similar conditions could occur at Lander by 00Z with a greater chance for accumulating snow. There will be an added upslope component, aided by a potential 700mb low moving along the Divide between 00Z and 06Z. This could be enough to dynamically cool the column and lead to snow for the Lander Foothills. Current forecast is for conditions to quickly dry out from west to east through the overnight hours Thursday night, but if the storm slows down precipitation could continue over central and southern portions through 12Z Friday. Initial snowfall amounts of 6 to 8 inches are forecasted over the Absaroka, Wind River and the northern half of the Bighorn Mountains, with up to 4 inches over the Tetons, Gros Ventres and portions of Yellowstone. Temperatures rebound quickly on Friday, with a chance for showers over the far western mountains again in the afternoon as a weak shortwave moves over the area. Afternoon showers and possible thunderstorms will be possible over the holiday weekend as highs reach the middle to upper 80s by Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 430 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 West of the Divide...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI Terminals Northwest flow aloft backs to the west as a shortwave drops south toward the forecast area late this afternoon. Weak showers develop over the mountains between 19Z and 21Z and move east into the basins and valleys around KJAC and KBPI. Any impacts would be brief and confidence is not high enough to include PROB30, with KJAC being the most likely terminal. Shortwave energy and deeper moisture reaches northwest Wyoming around KJAC by 06Z, so a PROB30 group has been added beginning at 04Z. In general, cloud cover increases and begins to slowly lower after 00Z. Wednesday afternoon westerly surface wind 10-18kts decreases to 7- 10kts around 01Z. Mountain tops occasionally obscured after 18Z as a result of the developing showers. Obscurations will lower over northwest Wyoming after 04Z, spreading southward through the rest of the TAF period with the increasing precipitation. East of the Divide...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KLND/KWRL Terminals All terminals to be VFR through the forecast period. Weak showers develop over the Absaroka and Wind River Mountains between 19Z and 21Z and slowly track east into the basins during the afternoon. Impacts are likely to be confined to gusty outflow wind 25-35kt, with convection around KCOD the most likely to produce these gusts. Otherwise, KCPR to see 10-18kt westerly wind during the day with occasional late day westerly wind 9-13kt at KRIW and KLND. The arrival of more robust shortwave energy in northwest Wyoming leads to a better chance of light rain showers at KCOD by 06Z. This shortwave will begin to push a cold front accompanied by northerly surface wind through the Bighorn Basin after about 03Z and reaching KCPR and KRIW around 06Z and 07Z, respectively. Mountain tops obscured after 00Z in the Absaroka Range, spreading to the Wind River and Bighorn Mountains between 09Z and 12Z Thursday. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZLC and ZDV for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT this morning for WYZ005-006-011- 016>020. && $$ DISCUSSION...LaVoie AVIATION...LaVoie/CNJ  227 FXUS62 KILM 201052 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 652 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for the 12Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Temperatures remain well above normal through Thursday, particularly for areas west of I-95. 2) Rain chances should increase, especially inland, beginning Thursday as a front temporarily stalls in the Carolinas. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures remain well above normal through Thursday, particularly for areas west of I-95. Deep high pressure over the area with 850 mb temps of +16C to 18C (at or above the 90th percentile climatological values for this time of year) will sustain hot inland temperatures through Thursday. Coastal portions of the Carolinas should remain significantly cooler due to sustained south winds dragging air across nearshore water still near 70 degrees and the daily sea breeze. Highs for Florence and Lumberton have been 90+ since May 17th, so a five day streak (assuming +90 degrees through Thursday) would eclipse this year's earlier streak of four days of 90 degree temps recorded from April 15-18 in both Florence and Lumberton. A cold front will approach the area Thursday night but doesn't look to move through before lifting north for the weekend. Increased cloud cover and scattered showers/storms will serve to lower temperatures Thursday onwards. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances should increase, especially inland, beginning Thursday as a front temporarily stalls in the Carolinas. Dry weather will come to an end as a front shifts in from the north on Thursday and subsidence aloft weakens enough to permit low rain chances. Isolated pop-up convection will be possible on the sea breeze with higher coverage along the front Thursday night. This looks to be just north of our area as the front fails to drop into the CWA before lifting back northward for Friday, so have lowered rain chances Thursday from the NBM. The front will stall north of the area with best coverage of daily shower/storm chances along the inland-pusing sea breeze in the afternoons. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Isolated patches of MVFR/IFR fog/stratus will be possible right around the valid TAF time, but any restrictions will quickly come to an end. VFR today will continue well into the evening before MVFR/IFR fog potential increases late tonight. Boundary layer winds will decrease in the evening coincident with the arrival of some enhanced low level moisture. Not expected much fog development before 06Z but chances increase in the pre-dawn hours. South to southwest winds today shift to southeast with the passage of the sea breeze. Sea breeze will enhance the southeast winds with gusts to 15 kt possible. Extended Forecast...MVFR/IFR visibility/ceilings possible each morning, generally in the 08z-12z timeframe. Potential for daytime restrictions Friday through Sunday due to convection. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...South to southeast flow around 10 kt continues across the waters today and tonight. Enhancement along the coast due to the sea breeze will result in speeds 10-15 kt with some higher gusts, but zone of enhanced winds will be rather narrow. Seas continue in the 2-3 ft range, although the amount of 3 ft seas will be somewhat increased over previous days. The southeast swell remains the dominant wave and the only wave of significance. Thursday through Monday... Predominantly south winds ~10 kts becoming more southeast ~15 kts in the afternoons with the sea breeze. Seas within 20nmi will be 2-3 ft and 3-4 ft beyond. The primary swell will be SE at 8-9 seconds. Shower/storm chances will be possible day to day starting Thursday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM KEY MESSAGES...ILM DISCUSSION...ILM AVIATION...III MARINE...III/LEW  231 FXUS63 KPAH 201052 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 552 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage this morning, bringing another 1 to 2 inches of rainfall. A low risk for localized flooding issues shifts more southeast into mainly western Kentucky with torrential downpours, but is not expected to be widespread enough to support a flood watch expansion. - A brief lull in the rain occurs Wednesday night into Thursday, followed by daily chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday through Tuesday. There is a 50-70% chance southeast portions of the Quad State exceed 3 inches of additional rainfall by next Tuesday. - Temperatures trend 5 to 10 degrees below normal today through Thursday in the low to mid 70s, followed by a warming trend this weekend with temperatures returning to the 80s. Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast with highs warming into the mid 80s by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1236 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A cold front is now beginning to push southeast across the Quad State this morning. The increase in surface convergence combined with forcing associated with a mid-level vort max will continue to cause an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity. Most of the 0z CAMs focus the potential for an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall more south across western Kentucky that is currently not under a Flood Watch. Given that any flash flooding issues are likely to remain fairly localized at most with rainfall rates between 0.5 to 1.0 inch per hour, have decided to not expand the watch. 1 hour FFG is also quite high in the 1.75-3.00 inch range with storms that will be fairly progressive. Given WSR-88D trends, the HRRR/ARW seem reasonable as convection will continue to lift northeast through this morning. As the cold front pushes southeast of the Kentucky Pennyrile this afternoon, showers and storms will begin to taper off for most of the FA by this evening. High temperatures will also be unseasonably cool ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s from northwest to southeast. Highs in the 70s are then progged through the end of the week. Meanwhile, a 1030 mb sfc high pressure will advect in much drier air for Thursday with a 30-40% chance of a returning thundershower confined to mainly the southern most counties. The break in the active weather pattern will be short lived as a warm front lifts north Friday morning into Friday afternoon with a 80-90% chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms. The potential for severe weather does not look concerning as instability will be limited with poor lapse rates. Split flow aloft will keep the weather pattern unsettled for the holiday weekend into early next week with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Southerly return flow will continue to advect in moisture each day with the LREF supporting a 50-70% chance of exceeding 3 inches of additional rainfall through next Tuesday across the southeast half of the FA. Temperatures do trend warmer back into the 80s as a closed low enters the western CONUS on Tuesday and helps to amplify a ridge over the southeast CONUS. Highs eventually return to the mid 80s by the middle of the week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 552 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A cold front will continue to move southeast this morning with widespread showers. Embedded thunder likely remains south of all the terminals, but cant rule out a stray rumble in the vicinity of KOWB. MVFR to IFR conditions are likely into this afternoon. Rain diminishes by this evening, but MVFR to high end IFR cigs persist across most terminals into Thursday morning. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...DW  252 FXUS62 KMHX 201054 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 654 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation section updated for 20/12Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Fog chances pick up early this morning for portions of eastern NC 2) Above normal to near- record high temperatures and rain- free conditions to continue today. 3) A frontal system approaches the area Thursday, bringing the next appreciable chance of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...With a similar setup to the past couple nights, we are expecting low stratus and fog to spread over SW portions of the CWA this morning. Best chances are in Onslow/Duplin county, decreasing as you go further north and east. Fog and low stratus will quickly scour out by 9 AM. KEY MESSAGE 2...Notably warm low- level thicknesses beneath an anomalous mid-upper level ridging will continue to support above to well above normal temperatures across the Carolinas through Thursday afternoon. Guidance shows similar low-level thicknesses this afternoon yielding highs generally in the lower 90s across the coastal plain, but some warmer spots may reach mid 90s. This will fall a few degrees short of records, but is still around 10 degrees above normal for mid to late May. Thursday's front has trended later with this update, entering the region around 21-00Z. As a result, southerly flow should help us warm up Thursday as well, although sea breeze and increased cloud cover/rain chances may keep us a few degrees colder than today. Regardless, highs around 90 are expected inland. before the sea breeze cools us down. Additionally, despite increasing low-level moisture, ridging aloft will provide sufficient subsidence to suppress convective activity outside of perhaps a rogue shower or thunderstorm where convergence is maximized along the seabreeze (the usual suspect spots over Dare County and Down East Carteret come to mind here) today. Still, probs of this occuring are low enough to keep out of the forecast for today. Thursday we will have a bit more moisture to play with as the front approaches from the north. As a result, we may see some isolated to scattered convection along the sea breeze. Chance PoPs/PoTThunder are in the forecast for Thursday afternoon and evening along the sea breeze. Where the sea breeze collides with the approaching cold front PoPs and QPF are maximized. KEY MESSAGE 3...The mid-upper level ridge is forecast to break down some starting Thursday and into the weekend, allowing a front to drop south late Thursday into Friday and then stall as it encounters the persistent ridging that has been over the region for much of the past week. Confidence continues to increase on the front reaching our CWA, with the most likely outcome being the front briefly stalling over NC. The front will likely linger over the area for a couple days before the boundary eventually lifts back northward over the weekend with ridging building back in its wake. The trend of a slower frontal passage has held tonight, with the front not reaching our area from the north until late afternoon into the evening. Therefore, forecast highs will once again reach the 80s and 90s with persistent southerly flow. Increasing moisture and instability along the frontal zone should support an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend. Probabilistic guidance depicts a 30-40% chance of over a quarter inch of rainfall, especially along and north of Highway 64 along the frontal boundary on Thursday. Ahead of the front, the pre- storm environment should be sufficiently unstable for a few storms as CAPE rises to 1000-1500 J/kg. With forecast steep low-level lapse rates and modest dry air aloft, combined with PWATs in the 1.5-1.75" range, the environment would be marginally conducive for the risk of a strong downburst in a more organized storm. Said organization, however, would require some amount of deep level shear and this appears lacking with 0-6 km values under 20 kt. The odds of a stronger storm appear to be around 10% or less as of this afternoon, in line with CSU and NCAR ML guidance, but trends will continue to be monitored. The severe risk will likely be muted on Friday with the frontal boundary to our south or easterly winds decreasing instability, then return to a low- probability regime for Saturday. Beyond here, the front becomes weak enough that diurnal sea and sound breezes become dominant, focusing the highest shower and thunderstorm chances inland. Each of these days carries a low, highly conditional severe risk as well per ML guidance. Notably high PWATs along the frontal zone should support higher rainfall rates in convection. However, notable hydro impacts are not expected due to the recent dry stretch and ongoing drought conditions. While probs are low, if we do see training storms over urban areas like Greenville, Jacksonville, and New Bern, minor flooding impacts could be seen despite the ongoing drought. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VLIFR-IFR fog and low stratus is observed in Duplin and Onslow counties, extending north and east up towards New Bern and Washington. This will quickly burn off by 9AM, leading to VFR conditions then forecast through the rest of today. Light SW winds tonight increasing in the afternoon and evening behind the sea breeze as they shift to become southerly. Gusts behind the sea breeze could reach 15-20 knots. Wednesday night/Thursday, we will see another night of light to calm winds and substantial low level moisture, ushering in another night of sub-VFR probs. Models have struggled with the fog and low stratus the past couple nights, being too passive compared to what has actually occurred. Expect this to occur again tonight, so went more aggressive than guidance for the 12Z TAF issuance. Best chances of VLIFR-IFR obs tonight are for OAJ, decreasing as you go north and east. Outlook: A frontal boundary sagging south into ENC is expected to bring an increasing risk of SHRA, TSRA, and sub-VFR conditions Thu into the weekend. && .MARINE... A summer-like pattern continues through tomorrow afternoon, with a daily building of winds to 10-20kt each afternoon and evening as the thermal gradient tightens. This will especially be the case for the inland rivers and sounds and the nearby coastal waters within 20nm of the coast, where funneling could result in some brief periods of 25kt gusts in the afternoon. Seas will continue to hover around 2-3ft, potentially up to 4 ft during the afternoon and evening. Outlook: A frontal boundary is forecast to sag south into the area Thursday afternoon/evening, then meander around the area through the upcoming weekend. This leads to lower confidence regarding winds and seas, but especially wind direction. In general, the risk of 25kt+ winds appears low during this time ahead of the front, with slightly higher chances of seeing 25+kt gusts behind the front across the Ablemarle Sound and adjacent waters on Thursday afternoon and evening. There will be an increased risk of thunderstorms in the region Thursday through Sunday as well. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MS/RJ AVIATION...RJ MARINE...MS/RJ  284 FXUS63 KJKL 201055 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 655 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower and thunderstorms will become more prevalent today, with widespread rain chances continuing through the next seven days, including the holiday weekend. - The switch to an active and wetter pattern yields temperatures closer to normal readings, and is likely to provide at least temporary relief from drought conditions. && .UPDATE... Issued at 622 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026 Showers and thunderstorms have developed in the last hour or so along a moisture (i.e., theta-e) gradient roughly parallel to the western escarpment of the Cumberland Plateau. This activity is ahead of the cold front, which is still west and northwest of the forecast area across central Kentucky. PoPs and Sky grids have been updated to reflect these trends. Hourly T/Tds have also been updated in the very near term. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 328 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026 A cold front will move southeast into eastern Kentucky this afternoon, then come to a stall later tonight through Thursday along the TN and VA borders. Meanwhile, broad forcing for ascent increases across the area through the day as a slow-moving shortwave approaches from the southwest, with the shortwave becoming gradually sheared out across southeastern Kentucky tonight into Thursday as shortwave ridging builds over the area by Thursday evening. As the front approaches from the northwest today and the aforementioned shortwave approaches from the southwest, rain chances will steadily increase. Current dew points in the 60s combined with a developing mid-level 30-40 kt speed max ahead of the shortwave will provide the kinematics and thermodynamics for scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, with low to moderate buoyancy from surface high temperatures forecast to reach the lower to mid 80s for much of the area, warmest in the Big Sandy Basin. Thus, a few isolated severe storms will be possible, with damaging winds and hail the primary severe threats. Additionally, downpours may cause localized high water issues in poor drainage areas. Showers and thunderstorm activity transitions to more of a shower/rain threat tonight into Thursday as the shortwave becomes sheared and the cold front stalls near or along the TN and VA state lines, creating more of an overrunning situation. The building upper ridging Thursday may allow for northwestern parts of the forecast area, especially toward the I-64 corridor and Bluegrass region, to stay mostly if not completely dry, as shower activity becomes more confined with time closer to the stalled front across southeastern Kentucky. Temperatures tonight will likely cool into the 50s, especially for northern areas behind the cold front, while lower to mid 60s for lows are expected toward the TN border to the south of the stalling front. Thursday's highs will be below normal for northern and central parts of the forecast area, likely around 70 degrees under persistent cloud cover and shower chances, with highs closer to normal near and south of the front near the TN and VA borders. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 302 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026 The forecast period begins with the region likely situated north of a frontal zone Thursday night as a shortwave in southwest flow approaches the region. This should support the boundary lifting north as a warm front as a sfc wave rides into the OH Valley. With the northwest lifting warm front, it is probable that chances of convection will spread north through the overnight period Thursday night. Overnight lows are still expected to be mild as the warm front lifts north across the area. This warm front will cross the region on Friday,serving as the catalyst for widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms throughout the day as another wave moves along the boundary and treks toward the Great Lakes for Friday night. While marginal thermodynamic indices will once again favor pulse-type, non-severe convection, the primary hazard shifts toward heavy rainfall and high precipitation efficiency. This boundary likely remains north of the area to start the weekend, before sagging back into the OH Valley and stalling to end the period. Passing disturbances and the moist airmass, with PWs per the 12Z LREF generally in the 1.3 to 1.7 inch range, or the 90th percentile, should at least be conducive for a diurnal uptick in convection for Friday to Monday. The 12Z Tuesday LREF event totals through 8 PM EDT on Monday have a min to max range of 0.75 inches to near 7 inches, while the 25th to 75th percentile range from 1.5 or 1.75 inches near the VA border to 3.75 inches in the north and west. Recent deterministic guidance projects widespread QPF amounts ranging from 2.00 inches in the Lake Cumberland area to 2.75 inches across northeastern portions of the forecast area, with lesser amounts near 1.5 inches in southeastern KY near the West Virginia and Virginia borders, due to local downsloping effects. As a side note, since the area is dry, heavy rainfall on top of moisture starved ground could create runoff issues leading to potential hydrologic issues. Ultimately, this period will highlight a distinct regime shift toward a much wetter synoptic setup, a stark difference from the persistent dry pattern observed over the last few weeks and months. Due to persistent cloud cover and rain, daytime highs will remain capped in the upper 70s to mid 80s, while overnight lows drop into the lower to middle 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026 Showers and thunderstorms have developed along a moisture gradient between KIOB/KSYM and KJKL/KSME this morning, and this activity will move northeast and primarily impact KSYM and possibly KIOB this morning with sub-VFR conditions. Otherwise, showers and thunderstorms will re-develop between midday and mid-afternoon across the area, with an active mid-afternoon through early evening period before activity diminishes to showers and pockets of steadier rain, though an isolated thunderstorm cannot be totally ruled out through the late evening. As the cold front stalls out across the area after 00z, expect more widespread MVFR or lower conditions with low cigs and possibly viz to develop at most if not all sites, continuing through the end of the TAF period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...CMC SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...JP/VORST/CMC AVIATION...CMC  265 FXUS63 KMQT 201054 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 654 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler than normal temperatures through the rest of the work week. Frost is possible the next few nights. - A dry work week is followed up by light rain this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 246 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 The going forecast remains on track this morning as GOES-East Nighttime Microphysics RGB imagery shows some pockets of low stratus and some high cirrus but otherwise unimpactful weather over the UP. RAP analysis shows expansive 1024 mb high pressure centered over the eastern Dakotas yet covering most of the north-central CONUS. Anywhere not affected by low stratus will see efficient radiational cooling tonight with decreasing northwest winds in addition to the ongoing 850mb cold advection. This 1-2 punch of cooling will bring lows near freezing this morning for most. While a slackening pressure gradient from the approaching high and low pressure over Quebec getting further away will result in decreasing winds, the long fetch of the NW winds will keep wave heights in excess of 4 feet for the nearshore Lake Superior waters adjacent to Alger and Luce counties into this afternoon, which may be hazardous to small craft. For the week ahead, with the only precipitation chances in the forecast having low impacts associated with them, the two biggest areas of impactful weather will be the potential for particularly dry weather this work week and frost impacting the beginning of growing season. With high pressure dominating the forecast for the rest of the work week, RHs will fall in the afternoon hours, with some spots seeing minimum RHs Thursday and Friday well into the mid- 20s. Thankfully, light winds mainly gusting under 15 kt will limit any wildfire concerns. With Friday beginning frost/freeze headlines, the LREF has increased chances of the interior UP seeing sub-36 degree lows Friday morning, now as high as 55%. A hard freeze is not expected as chances of sub-freezing lows sub-10%. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Amended at 246 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 High pressure and dry air building in from the west behind the previous day's cold front sets up a quiet pattern for the remainder of the work week as it slides over the Great Lakes region. Precipitation does not return until this weekend as a trough over the Plains pivots northeast over the region. Details around this are murky, but impacts likely will be low as instability is nil and probabilities of exceeding 0.5 inches of rain in 24 hours holds at 10% of less. Drier and warmer weather is progged to return early next week with high pressure possibly returning. This quieter period is captured in the CPC precipitation outlooks with near normal for the 6-10 day and slightly below normal for the 8-14 day. Despite zonal flow developing aloft by this afternoon, low level CAA into today yields temps between 5-15F below normal. Lows in the 30s to low 40s this morning will only warm into the 40s to mid 50s for most today, save for a few spots reaching low 60s south-central. Temps dip even lower tonight into the upper 20s to upper 30s. While it is still early for growing season, some patchy frost is possible tonight and widespread frost is anticipated Wednesday night. A ridge over the southeast CONUS begins to build late week while a trough deepens over the Rockies. This strengthens southerly flow and WAA increasing temps closer to normal by this weekend with highs in the 50s and 60s and lows in the 40s to low 50s. Patchy frost is possible again Thursday night, but no headlines are planned yet this week given slow start to growing season. In the wake of the weekend system, a strong mid level ridge looks to buildover the Midwest, favoring the warming trend to continue into next week. CPC temperature outlooks both show the UP under ~65-70% chances for above normal temps to close out the month. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 653 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Besides some transient MVFR ceilings this morning at IWD and SAW, VFR conditions prevail over the TAF sites through the period. Expect light winds out of the northwest to veer to the north to northeast through today and the evening, becoming south-southeasterly at IWD and CMX early tomorrow morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Amended at 246 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Winds over the east settle below 20 kts this morning and likely remain sub-20 kts across the lake through Friday as high pressure persists over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada. Significant wave heights of 4-6 ft over the east settle below 4 ft by this afternoon and likely remain 4 ft or less the remainder of the forecast period. This light wind pattern may even persist into next week with no significant systems on the horizon this weekend and high pressure favored to return next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MIZ006. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ UPDATE...GS DISCUSSION...77/GS AVIATION...GS MARINE...77/GS  335 FXUS61 KPHI 201056 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 656 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Hot and humid conditions continue, with record setting early season heat probable, through today. 2. A strong cold front brings some showers and possibly isolated severe thunderstorms to the region this afternoon and evening. 3. Significantly cooler temperatures and several rounds of showers for the end of this week and the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions continue, with record setting early season heat probable, through today. A strong upper-level ridge centered off the Southeast U.S. coast starts to flatten on its northwest side today. Though, with surface high pressure anchored in the western Atlantic a southwesterly flow of early season (anomalous) heat will continue to flow across our area today. Temperatures peak in the 90s for many areas again this afternoon, except cooler along the coasts and the higher terrain. How quickly cloud cover arrives, along with showers and some thunderstorms from an approaching cold front, will also impact high temperatures today, especially north and west of I-95. Either way though, we will have a high launching pad once again for temperatures, with lows this morning only in the upper 60s to low 70s, so it will still be rather hot this afternoon. While the surface dew points will mix out some during peak heating this afternoon due to the drier ground and boundary layer, this stretch of early season heat, with additional record breaking high temperatures probable, will have potentially greater impacts. Peak heat indices will be near 100 degrees, with the core of the heat shifting a bit more south and east today as the strong cold front starts to arrive. The Heat Advisory remains in place for across much of the region through 8 PM this evening. While some areas will probably fall a little short of criteria, particularly in Berks County, the Lehigh Valley, and into northern New Jersey where it will be cooler today ahead of the approaching front, it will still be another hot and humid day regardless. The potential for greater impacts, due to lack of acclimation this early in the season and the accumulative effect with this being the third straight day of high heat, continues to drive our decision. Along the immediate coast, where the wind turns more from the south and especially southeast will result in quite a bit of cooling due to the chilly ocean and therefore continued to not include these areas in the Heat Advisory. KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings some showers and possibly isolated severe thunderstorms to the region this afternoon and evening. A strong cold front will settle across our area this afternoon and tonight before stalling near Delmarva into Thursday. Showers and some thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front, and there looks to be a zone of higher instability across our central and southern zones this afternoon. It is in these areas where convection may try to organize a bit more as it develops eastward and encounters plenty of instability. The deep-layer shear is on the marginal side (strongest shear to our northwest) as are the mid level lapse rates, however a hot boundary layer will result in steep low-level lapse rates. The combination of the steep low-level lapse rates and any stronger convective cores, locally strong to damaging winds (downbursts) will be possible. Due to the lower shear convection may struggle to organize, however given the hot air mass in place some linear or small clustering could develop from about the Philadelphia metro on south and eastward late in the afternoon and evening. The coverage of stronger convection is of lower confidence, however given the lower shear values the severe thunderstorm risk looks isolated. General rainfall totals are 0.10- 0.50 inches, however given precipitable water values of 1.5-2.0 inches, localized higher amounts are quite possible with any stronger showers or thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms should end by late this evening, with some showers lingering in the wake of the cold front. KEY MESSAGE 3...Significantly cooler temperatures and several rounds of showers for the end of this week and the holiday weekend. A cold front is forecast to settle and then stall to our south Thursday and into the holiday weekend. Some ripples of energy ride along and north of it and this looks to bring some rounds of showers to our region. A more organized surface low well to our west may provide an increase in showers or a period of rain later Friday and Saturday. The precipitation may become enhanced some as surface high pressure to our northeast wedges southwestward into our area creating some cool air damming. Furthermore, with PWAT values around 1.50-1.90 inches over the weekend, which is around the climatological maximum for this time of the year, there is at least a marginal chance for excessive rainfall on Saturday. We will be keeping an eye on how strong the baroclinic forcing gets along the stalled boundary wedged between the high to the northeast and the low to the west. Northeast flow along with several rounds of showers will all result in much cooler temperatures Thursday through Saturday, then some warming should take place Sunday and into Memorial Day. The pattern looks active though and therefore some additional showers are quite possible right into Memorial Day. While not great timing, our region needs rain as a long-term drought continues. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...VFR overall with increasing clouds during the day. Some showers and thunderstorms arrive after 19Z with areas of sub- VFR conditions. Locally gusty winds possible with a stronger thunderstorm. Southwest winds increasing to 10-15 knots with some gusts to 20 knots. Low confidence on timing details. Tonight...MVFR conditions possible with fog/low stratus, particularly at terminals which receive showers/storms this evening. Some lingering showers may also contribute to sub-VFR conditions, particularly at KMIV and KACY. Northerly winds around 5 knots. Low confidence. Outlook... Thursday...A period of sub-VFR conditions with some showers. Friday through Sunday...Periods of sub-VFR conditions with showers at times, especially late Friday and Saturday. && .MARINE... Southerly winds will be gusty, to 20 knots, through today, however a hot air mass over the chilly ocean water is resulting in a very strong inversion just about the surface. This is limiting the vertical mixing. While seas in the southerly flow could build to 5 feet through today, it is very marginal and therefore largely sub-SCA conditions are expected. There is the potential for isolated gusty thunderstorms late this afternoon and especially this evening. Outlook... Thursday...Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible with northeast winds gusting around 20kts. Friday and Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions should occur. Sunday...Seas may linger around 4 to 6 feet, otherwise the conditions should be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Rip Currents... On Wednesday, south to southwest winds will range from 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. There will be a southeast swell with a period around 6 seconds. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for the Jersey Shore and a LOW risk for Delaware Beaches. On Thursday, winds become northeast 10 to 15 mph at the Jersey Shore in Monmouth County, and 15 to 20 mph at the rest of the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches. There will be a southerly swell with a period around 6 seconds. Breaking waves will be 1 to 3 feet. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore in Monmouth County and a MODERATE risk for the rest of the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. Surface temperatures inland will be in the 90s again on Wednesday, temperatures along the coasts will mainly be in the 70s to near 80 due to ocean temperatures in the 50s. These cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .CLIMATE... Record-setting temperatures occurred on Tuesday, May 19th. Below is a summary of records that were tied or broken. Record High Temperatures broken on May 19th Site Record/Year Philadelphia (PHL) 96/1962 (new record 98*) Reading (RDG) 96/1962 (new record 97*) Trenton (TTN) 96/1962 (record tied) Wilmington (ILG) 95/1962 (new record 96) *The record high of 98 at Philadelphia (PHL) and 97 at Reading (RDG) also breaks or ties the all time record high for the month of May at both sites. Record Warmest Low Temperatures broken on May 19th Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 65/2017 (record tied) Mount Pocono (MPO) 60/1943 (new record 66) Reading (RDG) 68/1962 (new record 72*) *The record warmest low of 72 at Reading (RDG) also tied the all time record warmest low of 72 for the month of May, set back on May 28 & 31, 1939 and May 31, 1991. More record breaking temperatures are possible through Wednesday. High temperatures today and low temperatures Wednesday morning could challenge monthly all time records for May. Records for our climate sites are listed below: Monthly Record High Temperatures for May Site Record/Date Allentown (ABE) 97/May 19, 1962 AC Airport (ACY) 99/May 29, 1969 AC Marina (55N) 95/May 31, 1895 & May 23, 1925 Georgetown (GED) 98/May 28, 1991 Mount Pocono (MPO) 94/May 22, 1911 Philadelphia (PHL) 98/May 19, 2026 (new) Reading (RDG) 97/May 20, 1996 & May 19, 2026 Trenton (TTN) 99/May 23, 1911 & May 31, 1986 Wilmington (ILG) 98/May 10, 1895 & May 30, 1895 Monthly Record Warmest Low Temperatures for May Site Record/Date Allentown (ABE) 71/May 31, 1975, May 28 & 31, 1991 AC Airport (ACY) 73/May 24, 2004 & May 19, 2017 AC Marina (55N) 73/May 30 & 31, 1987, & May 31, 1991 Georgetown (GED) 74/May 23, 1953 & May 20, 2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 68/May 21, 1996 Philadelphia (PHL) 78/May 31, 1895 Reading (RDG) 72/May 28 & 31, 1939, May 31, 1991, & May 19, 2026 Trenton (TTN) 75/May 31, 1895 Wilmington (ILG) 75/May 30, 1895 Record High Temperatures May 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 92/1962 & 1996 AC Airport (ACY) 96/1996 AC Marina (55N) 93/1996 Georgetown (GED) 95/1962 Mount Pocono (MPO) 89/1996 Philadelphia (PHL) 94/1962 & 1996 Reading (RDG) 97/1996 Trenton (TTN) 94/1996 Wilmington (ILG) 96/1996 Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 66/2019 AC Airport (ACY) 68/1996(ties) AC Marina (55N) 69/1996 Georgetown (GED) 74/2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 61/1959 Philadelphia (PHL) 71/2019 Reading (RDG) 69/1959 & 1996 Trenton (TTN) 68/1903, 1959, & 1962 Wilmington (ILG) 70/2019 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ060>062-070- 071-101>106. NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ007>010-012- 013-015-017>020-027. DE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AKL/Gorse/MJL AVIATION...AKL/MJL MARINE...AKL/MJL/MPS  327 FXUS62 KMLB 201056 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 656 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 138 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 - Continued High Risk for life-threatening rip currents at all central Florida Atlantic beaches. Entering the dangerous surf is strongly discouraged! - Temperatures see little change into early next week, but increasing humidity into the weekend will produce heat index values near or above 100 degrees and a Moderate to Major HeatRisk. - Isolated coastal showers continue. However, most convection will be focused over the interior, moving towards the west coast into the evening. Overall, many locations will stay dry. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Today-Tonight...A rinse and repeat forecast today, as a ridge remains placed northeast of the local area. The only difference today looks to be a very minor reduction in east to southeast flow. However, winds are still expected to increase to around 10-15 mph behind the sea breeze, with gusts to near 20 mph, especially along the coast. Winds then become light overnight, a reduction from the previous few days. High temperatures continue in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with overnight lows in the 70s, but near 80 along the coast. With little change to the overall pattern, have maintained a low chance (15%) for onshore- moving showers through tonight across coastal areas, knowing that CAMs struggle to resolve these features. A slight reduction in the east coast sea breeze is expected to allow for a more interior collision over the peninsula, though it still favors areas well west of Orlando. Outside of light coastal showers, the sea breeze will be the focus of convection this afternoon, with PoPs 20-40%. Drier air in the mid-levels leading to DCAPE near 1000 J/kg and 500 mb temperatures near -10 C could once again support a strong storm or two, with gusty winds near 50 mph and small hail, as well as lightning strikes. Any showers and storms that develop will drift westerly, inland from the coast. Thursday-Wednesday...High pressure remains off of the eastern US seaboard through the forecast period, though it is expected to drift southward towards Florida into mid-week next week and strengthen. Meanwhile, a mid to upper level low north of the Bahamas drifts eastward late this week, with upper level ridging subsequently developing over the peninsula. Locally, little change remains expected to the weather pattern over the next seven days. East to southeast flow prevails on the southern periphery of the ridge. Winds increase each afternoon to 10-15 mph, with gusts 20-25 mph, behind the sea breeze as it moves inland. The strongest gusts are expected along the coast. The daily sea breeze collision will continue to favor the far interior, if not western half of the peninsula. Thus, that's where the highest rainfall chances are for the afternoons and into the evening hours (PoPs 20-50%). A slight increase in moisture this weekend looks to have little effect on PoPs, as ridging develops aloft. Regardless, isolated coastal showers embedded within onshore flow are expected to persist through much of the period, especially during the overnight and early morning hours. However, most areas will likely remain dry overall. Lingering drier air in the mid- levels could support a few strong wind gusts in any more developed storms through Friday, before increasing moisture and warming 500mb temperatures reduce that threat into the weekend. E/SE flow holds high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s each day. As moisture increases into the weekend, so do heat indices, which rise into the upper 90s to low 100s. Humid conditions and little relief overnight due to temperatures remaining in the 70s (and near 80 along the coast) will lead to increasing coverage of Moderate HeatRisk and even a developing Major HeatRisk for several ECFL locations (including the Orlando metro). Use caution during the heat of the day, especially this weekend, by staying hydrated and taking breaks in an air- conditioned space. A High Risk or high- end Moderate Risk for rip currents looks to continue through the week into the weekend, thanks to onshore flow. && .MARINE... Issued at 138 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 High pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain east to southeast flow through the weekend. Winds remain around 10-15 kts, with gusts near 20 kts along the coast behind the sea breeze. Shallow, low-level moisture will support at least isolated showers through the weekend. However, a majority of convection will develop over land areas along the sea breeze and drift farther westward. Seas 2-4 ft prevail into the weekend, though occasionally reach up to 5 ft well offshore. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 656 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR outside of convection. A persistent pattern of onshore flow will keep rounds of widely isolated coastal showers through the morning and into the afternoon with VCSH mentioned at all coastal TAF sites. Scattered lightning storms are forecast across the interior this afternoon and evening, and have maintained a mention of VCTS at interior terminals, generally after 18/19Z. Storms should move west of SFB/MCO by 22/23Z, but could linger a bit longer into the evening at LEE/ISM. East winds increase to 9-12 kts today with locally higher gusts at times. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 72 89 75 / 20 20 20 20 MCO 90 72 91 74 / 30 10 30 10 MLB 86 77 88 79 / 20 20 20 20 VRB 87 76 88 78 / 20 20 20 20 LEE 91 73 91 74 / 30 20 30 20 SFB 91 72 92 74 / 30 10 40 0 ORL 90 72 91 74 / 30 10 40 10 FPR 86 75 88 77 / 20 20 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wishard AVIATION...Law  357 FXUS65 KPSR 201057 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 357 AM MST Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near normal temperatures will gradually warm through the weekend with lower desert highs reaching near 100 degrees following comfortable morning readings. - Dry conditions will prevail through the weekend with typical afternoon breeziness. - There is a slight chance for a few storms and lightning strikes over eastern Arizona high terrain early next week, however rainfall should be minimal, at best. && .SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/... Latest objective analysis depicts elongated, positively tilted troughing covering the western Conus helping depress midtropospheric heights over the forecast area, and resulting in the recent period of below normal temperatures. Ensemble model output over the next 60 hours strongly argues for the northern portion of the negative height anomalies to propagate into the Upper Midwest, yet with the trough base and marginally lower heights lingering over the forecast area. While H5 heights will be maintained in a near persistence level not far from 576dm, boundary layer thermal profiles will moderate in response to the seasonally increased sfc insolation such that H8 temperatures warm from 18C to 22C through Thursday. As such, forecast confidence is excellent that afternoon highs will rebound very close to the daily normals with extremely narrow ensemble numerical spread. Otherwise, widespread dry weather will continue along the the typical afternoon May breeziness. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... The weak troughing will gradually migrate into the southern plains late in the week as the Conus pattern becomes more progressive allowing low amplitude shortwave ridging to temporarily build into the SW Conus. While notable ensemble uncertainty exists in the northern jet stream structure, particularly over the northeast Pacific, only minimal model spread is evident across the forecast area and confidence is very good that H5 heights in a 582-585dm range will envelop the Southwest. As such, temperatures will warm several more degrees into a slightly above normal range, but certainly nothing particularly unusual for this time of year. As the ridge axis shifts east into New Mexico later in the weekend, deeper southerly flow and intense heating of higher terrain may encourage shallow Gulf surges and import of marginally better moisture profiles heading into next week. Model uncertainty grows markedly next week as deep troughing enters the NW Conus while a very strong subtropical jet punches into northern Mexico, allowing some form of cyclonic flow and shortwave troughing to develop over the forecast area. This type of pattern is not uncommon for mid/late May transitioning season, but fine details in timing, intensity, and moisture availability will determine the extent (if any) of impacts across the region. General pattern recognition suggests the increased jet ascent and cooling aloft will promote deep mountain convection, tapping the marginally increased moisture early next week with the preponderance of ensemble output indicating Monday the most favored day for isolated storms. Given the thermodynamic profiles and historical precedent with similar systems, very little rainfall would be expected with this convection, but rather numerous dry lightning strikes and gusty outflow winds. Should this evolution come to fruition, the greatest concern would be wildfire starts over the back country followed by increasing winds midweek with the passage of stronger troughing through the Great Basin. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1100Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No aviation weather concerns are anticipated through theforecast period. East winds this morning will slowly transition back to W-SW during the part of the afternoon with a few hours of southerly/VRB winds expected during the shift. Expect clearing skies this morning. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation weather issues will exist through the forecast period under clear skies. At KIPL, westerly winds will shift to the north mid morning lasting until the evening when winds will again turn westerly. At KBLH, northerly winds will continue through the afternoon before going southerly in the evening. Wind speeds will be aob 10 kt at both terminals through the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Temperatures will gradually warm through early next week, albeit remaining in a slightly above normal category. Dry conditions will prevail with minimum afternoon humidity levels falling into a 5-15% range this week, though a modest increase in moisture will result in these levels increasing closer to 10-20% over the weekend. This moisture increase along with an incoming weather disturbance will lead to a slight chance for afternoon/evening storms and lightning strikes over eastern districts high terrain. Little to no rainfall would be expected with this activity resulting in a heightened threat for new wildfire starts, particularly Monday afternoon. Poor to fair overnight recovery of 20-40% will only improve slightly over the weekend. Typical afternoon spring upslope gustiness of 15-25 mph will be common through the period with the most pronounced gusts over eastern district high terrain and through the lower Colorado River valley. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM...18 AVIATION...Kuhlman FIRE WEATHER...18