806 FXUS63 KIWX 200803 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 403 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and drier today into Thursday with highs only in the 60s. - Next chance for rain and a few storms arrive Friday. - Gradual warming with highs in the 70s with periods of showers and thunderstorms this weekend into the beginning of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 336 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Cold front has just about pushed completely through the area overnight with a few light sprinkles accompanying the boundary. A trace of precipitation was received here at the weather office with the showers. Today will run about 20 degrees cooler in most areas with drier and cooler airmass with ridging pushing in behind the front today. Dew points will go from the current values in the 50s to the 30s and 40s by this evening. Breezy to gusty conditions will prevail today and will be messaging hazardous beach conditions possible along Lake Michigan shoreline areas through this evening. High temperatures today through Friday will only get into the mid to upper 60s across the area. Perhaps a few locations may see the low 70s by Friday. Lows overnight tonight and again on Friday morning will drop mainly into the 40s. A slow moving shortwave moves northeastward on Friday within the southwesterly flow on the backside of the ridging that will slide eastward. This will increase chances for rain showers and even some embedded afternoon/evening thundershowers. This activity will continue into the weekend with periods of showers and afternoon thundershowers into the beginning of next week with increasing temperatures due to thermal ridging over the region. Highs will gradually increase Saturday through the middle of next week with highs in the 70s Saturday through Monday, a few areas will flirty with the lower 80s Monday before warming further with highs into the 80s for most locations on Tuesday and Wednesday. At this time, the expectation will not be for a complete washout this holiday weekend but with convective showers it will be hard to pin down the exact timing and locations that do receive them. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 114 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions expected through the remainder of this TAF period. A few light sprinkles possible this morning before shortwave ridging pushes into the region. Northerly winds with gusts up to 20 kts possible after 17z Wed. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM CDT this morning through late tonight for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through late tonight for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Andersen AVIATION...Andersen  849 FXUS63 KMPX 200804 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 304 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably cool & dry today into Friday - Next chance for showers & thunderstorms comes Friday afternoon into Saturday. - Warmer for the latter half of the Memorial Day weekend through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Clear skies & calm winds are resulting in a chilly night across much of the region, with areas of frost expected until sunrise. Recent rains have also resulted in some patchy shallow fog & mist to develop across west-central Minnesota, again expected to clear up after sunrise. Otherwise no weather concerns of note until later on Friday with seasonably cool temperatures in the 60s expected for the next few afternoons. Our next chance for rain is expected Friday afternoon through Saturday as a shortwave trough digs along the US-Canada border. Enough instability will be present ahead of the system Friday afternoon & evening to likely generate some thunder, along with most of the rainfall from this system. Lighter rain showers will likely linger through saturday as the system exits the region off to the Great Lakes. Rainfall amounts Friday night look to be on the order of 0.5-1" across western Minnesota, decreasing to 0.1-0.25" across western Wisconsin. The Memorial Day weekend gets off to a cool & cloudy start with some light showers/drizzle lingering through the day on Saturday & temperatures remaining in the low to mid 60s. Warmer & sunnier conditions are expected for the rest of the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 70s Sunday & mid 80s likely on Monday. We'll have to monitor the potential for a weak upper level disturbance bringing a chance for thunderstorms sometime Sunday night into Monday, but these chances look to mainly limited to southern Minnesota. More summer-y conditions are expected for next week as ensemble guidance highlights multiple days with temperatures in the 80s, or around 10 degrees above normal for the end of May. No major systems or widespread chances for rain are expected. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Clear skies early this morning with west-northwesterly winds around 5kts becoming light and variable this afternoon. Did toss in a tempo at AXN for a potential of MVFR BR between 8-12z this morning. Few to Sct high-level clouds develop this afternoon but otherwise, should be nice day to take to the skies. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15kts. FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15G25kts. SAT...MVFR/-RA early. Wind E 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Benton-Brown- Chippewa-Chisago-Douglas-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope- Redwood-Renville-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Stevens-Swift- Todd-Wright-Yellow Medicine. WI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Barron-Polk- Rusk. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...Dunleavy  132 FXUS65 KTWC 200809 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 109 AM MST Wed May 20 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A dry weather system to our north will bring southwesterly breezes today with slightly less wind thereafter into the weekend. Temperatures will be slightly below to near normal for the rest of the week with Minor HeatRisk. Another weather system will be moving into the region by the start of the new week, bringing slight chances for rain showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery this morning continues to show a broad trough axis across Utah towards Baja California. High level moisture will continue to eject into the region in a form of cloudy skies. This trough will continue another day of southwesterly breezes across the region. As a result, elevated fire weather conditions will exist for the areas east and south of Tucson. A shot of energy from the Pacific Northwest will push the upper level trough off tomorrow, but it will leave behind a weak low circulation just east of Baja California. This low will transition to our south throughout the week. Winds will start lessen more on Thursday through the start of the weekend. The weak low will bring upper atmospheric moisture into the region by the end of the week. Chances for rain showers will be less than 10% with this forecast package and mainly be cloud build ups and virga for Friday and Saturday afternoon. Chances for rain showers and thunderstorms will be increasing on Sunday through Tuesday. A minor ridge will form to our east with another low pressure coming from the Pacific which will bring better moisture into the region. Ensemble model precipitable water content will increase up to 0.61-0.78 inches; the 25th-75th percentile at Tucson. Leading to 10-30% chances for rain showers and thunderstorms on Monday with the higher chances for areas east of Tucson. Forecasted rainfall amounts will be on the low end, less than 0.1 inches for this event which indicates a more of a dry thunderstorm environment for the southeast Arizona. && .AVIATION...valid through 21/12Z. SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20K feet AGL and another FEW-SCT layer at or around 15K feet AGL through the daytime period. SKC conditions will prevail after 21/03Z from the west and clearing east through the end of the forecast period. SFC winds this morning less than 12 kts and SLY/SELY, and again after 21/04Z. By 20/18Z, SFC winds SWLY/WLY at 10-18 kts with gusts up high as 30 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry and breezy conditions today resulting in elevated fire weather conditions for areas east and south of Tucson with brief locally near critical conditions existing in the southeastern portion of Cochise County. For Thursday through Sunday, winds will be generally be less than 15 mph with min relative humidities sitting in the teens to the mid-20s. Mid to upper level moisture will approach as early as this weekend south and east of Tucson, but the more impactful moisture will likely hold off until early next week as another weather system approaches. There is a 10 to 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday for much of southeast Arizona, and these chances will trend towards the New Mexico border Tuesday, && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson  493 FXUS65 KPSR 200810 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 110 AM MST Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near normal temperatures will gradually warm through the weekend with lower desert highs reaching near 100 degrees following comfortable morning readings. - Dry conditions will prevail through the weekend with typical afternoon breeziness. - There is a slight chance for a few storms and lightning strikes over eastern Arizona high terrain early next week, however rainfall should be minimal, at best. && .SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/... Latest objective analysis depicts elongated, positively tilted troughing covering the western Conus helping depress midtropospheric heights over the forecast area, and resulting in the recent period of below normal temperatures. Ensemble model output over the next 60 hours strongly argues for the northern portion of the negative height anomalies to propagate into the Upper Midwest, yet with the trough base and marginally lower heights lingering over the forecast area. While H5 heights will be maintained in a near persistence level not far from 576dm, boundary layer thermal profiles will moderate in response to the seasonally increased sfc insolation such that H8 temperatures warm from 18C to 22C through Thursday. As such, forecast confidence is excellent that afternoon highs will rebound very close to the daily normals with extremely narrow ensemble numerical spread. Otherwise, widespread dry weather will continue along the the typical afternoon May breeziness. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... The weak troughing will gradually migrate into the southern plains late in the week as the Conus pattern becomes more progressive allowing low amplitude shortwave ridging to temporarily build into the SW Conus. While notable ensemble uncertainty exists in the northern jet stream structure, particularly over the northeast Pacific, only minimal model spread is evident across the forecast area and confidence is very good that H5 heights in a 582-585dm range will envelop the Southwest. As such, temperatures will warm several more degrees into a slightly above normal range, but certainly nothing particularly unusual for this time of year. As the ridge axis shifts east into New Mexico later in the weekend, deeper southerly flow and intense heating of higher terrain may encourage shallow Gulf surges and import of marginally better moisture profiles heading into next week. Model uncertainty grows markedly next week as deep troughing enters the NW Conus while a very strong subtropical jet punches into northern Mexico, allowing some form of cyclonic flow and shortwave troughing to develop over the forecast area. This type of pattern is not uncommon for mid/late May transitioning season, but fine details in timing, intensity, and moisture availability will determine the extent (if any) of impacts across the region. General pattern recognition suggests the increased jet ascent and cooling aloft will promote deep mountain convection, tapping the marginally increased moisture early next week with the preponderance of ensemble output indicating Monday the most favored day for isolated storms. Given the thermodynamic profiles and historical precedent with similar systems, very little rainfall would be expected with this convection, but rather numerous dry lightning strikes and gusty outflow winds. Should this evolution come to fruition, the greatest concern would be wildfire starts over the back country followed by increasing winds midweek with the passage of stronger troughing through the Great Basin. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0525Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No aviation weather concerns are anticipated through the forecast period. W-SW winds will continue into the overnight hours, with speeds aob 10 kt. The diurnal easterly shift should occur late tonight at KIWA and KPHX (09-10z). A slow transition back to W-SW is anticipated again tomorrow with a few hours of southerly/VRB winds expected prior to the shift. Winds should go W-SW by 21Z. BKN high cirrus clouds will continue through the overnight hours and slowly clear out late tomorrow morning. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation weather issues will exist through the forecast period under mostly clear skies. At KIPL, winds will be W'rly during the evening and overnight hours and N'rly during the late morning and afternoon hours. At KBLH, NW'rly winds will continue through tomorrow afternoon before going SE'rly tomorrow evening. Wind speeds will be aob 10 kt at both terminals through the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Temperatures will gradually warm through early next week, albeit remaining in a slightly above normal category. Dry conditions will prevail with minimum afternoon humidity levels falling into a 5-15% range this week, though a modest increase in moisture will result in these levels increasing closer to 10-20% over the weekend. This moisture increase along with an incoming weather disturbance will lead to a slight chance for afternoon/evening storms and lightning strikes over eastern districts high terrain. Little to no rainfall would be expected with this activity resulting in a heightened threat for new wildfire starts, particularly Monday afternoon. Poor to fair overnight recovery of 20-40% will only improve slightly over the weekend. Typical afternoon spring upslope gustiness of 15-25 mph will be common through the period with the most pronounced gusts over eastern district high terrain and through the lower Colorado River valley. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM...18 AVIATION...Berislavich FIRE WEATHER...18  724 FXUS63 KLOT 200814 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 314 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry but cooler conditions today and Thursday, followed by increasing rain chances Friday. - Intermittent shower/thunderstorm chances for Memorial Day weekend, though much of the period should be dry. - Several periods of moderate to high swim risk conditions possible from today through early next week due to persistent northeast winds over Lake Michigan. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Mainly dry, breezy and cooler weather conditions are expected today through Thursday, in the wake of yesterday's cold frontal passage. Early morning surface analysis shows this front now extends from western Lake Erie to far southern Illinois along the Ohio River. Have noted a few spotty sprinkles as far north as the Pontiac-Rensselaer areas overnight, likely where lingering moist advection was still occurring within the elevated baroclinic zone north of the surface front. These will end prior to sunrise however, as the southern periphery of a mid-level short wave trough passes east of the region. Farther northwest, 1026 mb surface high pressure was centered near Sioux Falls this morning, and is progged to build east-northeast across the upper Great Lakes region by tonight. This will result in our north-northwest winds shifting northeast and becoming breezy by midday/afternoon with gusts near 20 mph (around 25 mph near/downwind of Lake Michigan into northeast IL/northwest IN). Temperatures, after being in the 70s and 80s over the past several days, will be limited to the low-mid 50s along the Lake Michigan shore, and the low-mid 60s well inland beneath partly to mostly cloudy skies. With the breezy northeast winds and building waves on the lake, have issued a Beach Hazard Statement for the Illinois and Indiana shores today into Thursday. Overnight lows tonight may dip to around the 40 degree mark along the IL/WI border, and in the low-mid 40s elsewhere with partly cloudy skies. Thursday will be similar, though with more easterly winds and slightly milder temperatures in the mid-upper 60s well west and south of the lake-cooled areas of northeast IL and far northwest IN. Clouds look to spread in from the west late Thursday/Thursday night, ahead of a mid-level short wave lifting northeast from the southern Plains and the base of a western CONUS upper trough. An associated surface low pressure wave is progged to track into the lower Missouri Valley by late Thursday night, then slowly track northeast across central IL/northern IN Friday into Friday night as the short wave transits the region. This is expected to spread rain/showers across the area during this time, though there remains some guidance/ensemble spread as to the northward extent of the rain shield into our antecedent dry low-level air, though rain chances increase across much of the area by Friday afternoon and evening. Thunder potential looks quite low, with the forecast MUCAPE reservoir forecast to remain largely south of the cwa. Cloud cover, rain and enhanced E-NE surface winds north of the low track will make for another cool day Friday with highs again in the 50s near the lake and low-mid 60s elsewhere. Rain should taper off overnight Friday night as the mid-level and surface waves pass. Medium-range ensembles depict the aforementioned western upper trough tracking slowly across the Midwest through Sunday, eventually shifting east of the region Monday/Tuesday. While this may maintain at least some threat of intermittent showers over the holiday weekend, current guidance suggests that there will likely be many dry daytime hours. A gradual warming trend is also depicted Saturday into Tuesday with daytime temperatures forecast to warm back into the 70s/possibly 80s. Ratzer && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 No major forecast concerns for the terminals for this TAF period. Mid-level cloud cover continues to stream over the Chicago area terminals associated with a plume of moisture on the backside of a elevated frontal zone. While BKN to OVC 10000-15000 ft ceilings are expected to linger overnight (especially at GYY), skies will scatter out around daybreak as high pressure builds into the area. VFR conditions will prevail for the rest of the forecast period. Winds will remain breezy out of the northwest tonight with occasional gusts in the upper teens. Directions will become northeasterly around 12-13z Wednesday and remain as such for the rest of the TAF cycle with speeds in the 10-15 kt range with occasionally higher gusts through Wednesday evening before speeds ease into the 8-10 kt range. Yack && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM CDT Thursday for the IL nearshore waters. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Thursday for the IN nearshore waters. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  082 FXUS61 KCLE 200820 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 420 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Scattered showers will be slower to diminish today, lingering into this afternoon for some areas. Increased northeast winds on Thursday, especially near the lakeshore and in northwest Ohio. Lowered high temperatures across the northeast on Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Below normal temperatures expected today and Thursday. 2) Widespread rain of 1-1.5 inches is expected late Friday into Saturday with additional chances of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. Area rivers will experience some rises and a couple may experience minor flooding. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... At 4 AM a cold front was located across Lake Erie into Northwest Ohio. This front will push south this morning ushering in a dramatically cooler airmass. High temperatures for the day are occurring early this morning with temperatures falling through midday. Temperatures at 850mb will fall by approximately 10C between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon with afternoon values in the upper 50s to low 60s with a cool north wind. For some areas this will be 25-30 degrees lower than yesterday. In addition, skies will be mostly cloudy as moisture continues to stream northeast overhead. A tightly packed frontal boundary in the 925-850mb layer will trail the surface front into this afternoon, prolonging shower activity. Additional showers will generally be light although some elevated instability will remain into the morning and will maintain a slight chance of a thunderstorm across the south. High pressure will strengthen over the Upper Great Lakes tonight into Thursday. Thursday will have a good deal of sun which will help temperatures recover into the 60s. Locations near Lake Erie will be influenced by a brisk northeast wind off the lake, limiting temperatures to the lower 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will build to New England on Friday as a shortwave trough lifts from the Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley. A good deal of moisture advection will spread north into the region as a surface trough moves north to the Ohio Valley by 00Z Sat. Overrunning will lead to a northward expansion of rain through the day on Friday, becoming widespread by evening. There is high confidence in rain on Friday night, becoming focused more across the east on Saturday as the trough continues north across Lake Erie. Rainfall from Friday and Saturday looks to be in the 1-1.5 inch range but adjustments are likely. This rain will lead to rises on rivers and perhaps a couple rivers experiencing minor flooding. Temperatures on Friday are generally expected to be cool in the 60s, but will be impacted by the timing of rain. The above mentioned trough does lift a warm front north into the area on Saturday with southerly flow and decreasing showers later in the day bringing a return of warmer temperatures, mainly across the southern and western portion of the local area. Dryer air looks to move overhead Sunday morning before moisture and instability increase again during the afternoon. Temperatures continue to climb as the warm front lifts north. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... A cold front is near TOL as of 6z and will sweep southeast across all terminals through 11-12z. Ahead of the front mainly VFR prevails, though with a few showers towards central Ohio and some patchy lower ceilings across far eastern OH and northwestern PA. All will fall to low MVFR to IFR with the frontal passage...have IFR included at MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI, and can't rule out brief IFR at CLE. Showers will fill back in this morning, mainly south of TOL-CLE-ERI, before exiting to the south and southeast late this afternoon and evening. Some occasional visibility restrictions may accompany these showers, especially at MFD/CAK/YNG. Ceilings gradually climb through MVFR and back to VFR late this morning and afternoon from north to south as drier air gradually filters in. Winds will turn initially northwest and then quickly north-northeast at around 10kt behind the front this morning and persist at that general speed and direction into tonight. Outlook...Non-VFR expected at times in rain late Friday through Saturday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms with brief non-VFR again possible Sunday afternoon and evening. && .MARINE... Winds are quickly turning north-northeast early this morning as a cold front crosses the lake. Winds will briefly increase to around 15kt across the western and central basins this morning, which will briefly build waves to 2-4 feet with those waves being driven towards the shore. Winds briefly lull this afternoon. A stronger pressure gradient is expected Thursday into Friday as high pressure slides north and northeast of Lake Erie. Winds will turn northeast tonight and increase to 15-20kt. Winds will remain northeast and increase further to 20-25kt at times Thursday and Thursday night. Winds gradually turn more easterly and then southeasterly Friday and Friday night, remaining elevated at 15-25kt until late Friday night or early Saturday. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements will be needed for most or all nearshore waters beginning overnight tonight or early Thursday. Will not hoist those with this package but they will be coming today at some point. Looking ahead to the holiday weekend, generally southerly winds may be elevated enough to cause issues for smaller craft on Saturday. Winds will trend lighter for Sunday and Monday and eventually come around to the northwest. It will be unsettled with periods of rain and perhaps some thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday, with a drying trend likely by Monday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...10 AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...Sullivan  123 FXUS65 KCYS 200822 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 222 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chilly temperatures will continue for the next several days. Another round of freezing temperatures expected this morning in areas with snow cover, with patchy frost and fog elsewhere. - Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue through Wednesday night. A more widespread round of showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday into Friday. - Slightly above average temperatures and pleasant weather expected for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 215 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Current KCYS radar loop shows some light rain showers with a little bit of snow above 7500 feet across the far southeast Wyoming near Cheyenne and Pine Bluffs and the southern Nebraska Panhandle early this morning. The upper level trough axis near the Utah border and WAA aloft out ahead of it is responsible for this activity. Periods of light rain showers will likely continue this morning and into the early afternoon hours with breaks at times. Watching some fog across the I-80 Summit also and will likely need a Dense Fog Advisory shortly since the precipitation appears to have shifted to the east. Southeast winds should continue for the next 6 hours over the Summit, so do not expect the fog to lift until midmorning. Otherwise, Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories continue for most of southeast Wyoming and Sioux County over western Nebraska. Slow warming trend will continue for today and Thursday as a long wave trough settles into the western third of the United States. Carbon county will rebound today with highs in the upper 40s to middle 50s with recent webcams showing rapid snow melt. There are still areas with deep snow pack, and those locations will likely still make it into the middle 40s. Kept 20 to 40 percent POP for this afternoon with some weak WAA aloft continuing through the day but better instability should keep widely scattered rain showers and isolated thunder going through this evening. Not as cold tonight with lows in the 30s to low 40s across most of the high plains, and upper 20s to low 30s for Carbon and Albany counties. Later on Thursday, models show a potent clipper system digging south out of Alberta Canada and slowing down over the region. Will have to monitor this system for additional mountain snowfall, but expect most of the lower elevations to stay as rainfall. The system has trended a little colder compared to yesterday, with rain/snow mix down to 6500 feet...but any accumulations should be minimal for Laramie and Rawlins with generally no impacts on area roadways. Good low to midlevel forcing with this system, and daytime instability will aid in shower and thunderstorm development with CAPE values between 400 to 800 j/kg. Could see some decent rainfall amounts into Friday, with 25th to 50th percentile QPF amounts between a quarter inch and half inch. Some places across western Nebraska could even see up to 1 inch of rainfall from this system depending on the coverage of deep convection. Increased POP above 75 percent for most of the area with the good chance for another much-needed wetting rainfall. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 139 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 An active and summer-like weather pattern is expected to take shape Friday through most of next week. Upper-level trough continued Friday and Saturday before zonal flow returns for Sunday and Monday. The next best chance for upper-level troughing looks to be Tuesday through the end of the week as a deep, upper-level trough near the West Coast pushes eastwards through mid-week. The 500mb flow will feature a very similar progression throughout the next several days,but isolated vorticity lobes will pass across the CWA, leading to increasing synoptic ascent despite the largely zonal upper-level flow and large-scale ridging late in the week. Westerly to southwesterly flow will dominate at 700mb Friday through much of the upcoming week, with moisture continuing to advect in with the 700mb from the Pacific Ocean just southwest of southern California. Despite the influx of moisture, the NAEFS Mean suggests that Precipitable Water values will remain seasonal for this time of year, so significant rainfall is not expected at this time though still likely more than the region has seen throughout much of this "winter" season. Looking at 700mb temperatures, a warming trend is expected Friday through much of the week, with 700mb temperatures over 10C returning for much of the region early next week. Surface temperatures will also see a warming trend through the weekend and into next week, with a small potential for slightly warmer than average temperatures, favored by the NAEFS Mean 700mb Temperatures being in the 90th percentile for isolated portions of the CWA. While every day in the longer term forecast will feature some chance for isolated, afternoon showers and storms, as is quite typical with a summer-like pattern, Friday looks to be the most active day with the best potential for isolated, strong to severe thunderstorms. The next best day for precipitation will be Wednesday as the next upper- level trough is progged to push into the region. Looking at Friday, a messy, 700mb low will slowly get its act together in the morning hours becoming a closed low by late morning. An attendant surface low will push northeast out of northeastern Colorado, placing the CWA on the cooler side of the system as a whole. However, 700mb warm air advection is expected to start by the early afternoon hours as warmer temperatures further south start to push north as the first upper-level short-wave trough move off to the northeast and the second slowly swings across the Intermountain West for the overnight hours. Therefore, during the day, there will be favorable ascent in the form of 500mb vorticity maxima moving across the region combined with 700mb WAA, residual ascent associated with the surface low, then finally a secondary, weaker cold front as the second short-wave pushes through the region overnight Friday into early Saturday morning. Hires guidance does not quite reach Friday afternoon and evening at this time, but the NAM suggests anywhere from 200 to 700 J/kg of MUCAPE across the western Nebraska Panhandle. This would be enough, combined with the synoptic ascent across the region, to get at least a few rumbles of thunder, but also the possibility of very gusty winds and possibly some isolated hail. It will be interesting to see how hires guidance depicts this system as it gets into the time range, especially since forecast NAM soundings suggest a very wet environment with very strong 0 to 3km shear. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1140 MDT Tue May 19 2026 Lighter winds, generally less than 10 knots, will continue for the overnight hours across all terminals. In addition, precipitation chances will increase over the next several hours at KCYS and then spread eastward into the Nebraska Panhandle between 12 and 15Z, with KAIA and KSNY having the best chances. This precipitation will bring in lower CIGs and reduced VIS, which could make flight categories dip down to MVFR and/or IFR conditions. Winds will ramp up again, starting around 12Z across southeast Wyoming and between 15 and 18Z for the Nebraska sites. So, expect gusty southerly winds increasing to 20-30 knots. With the added moisture that we've seen across southeast Wyoming over the past day or so, BR/FG once again may be possible, greatestchance at KRWL and KCYS tonight. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT this morning for WYZ102-106-107- 117. Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT this morning for WYZ101-115. Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT this morning for WYZ104-105- 109>111-113-116. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for WYZ116 NE...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT this morning for NEZ095. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...AM AVIATION...TJT/RZ  173 FXUS64 KHUN 200824 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 324 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New NEAR TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Medium to high chances (60-90%) of showers and thunderstorms are forecast today through early next week. No severe weather is forecast. && .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 A broad area of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms continue to meander across northern Mississippi. This activity has drifted largely NNE into western Tennessee and has remained just west of the region. Overall, this activity has diminished over the course of the night, but would not be shocked if a few light showers (and maybe an elevated thunderstorm) clip portions of far northwest Alabama near the AL/MS border between 09-12z. The latest trend in guidance is for this overnight activity to dissipate late this morning. However, would expect some regeneration late this morning and into the afternoon hours as a weak front pushes into the Tennessee Valley. Despite the cloud cover, some partial heating in the morning hours will allow for some appreciable destabilization of the boundary layer by this afternoon -- with medium to high (60-90%) chances of showers and thunderstorms forecast during this afternoon timeframe. PWATs in the 85-90th percentile for this day will help make any convection that can develop capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. The dense cloud cover and higher rain chances will keep highs a few degrees lower, with highs peaking in the low to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 With weak shear remaining over the area near the front on Wednesday night and the loss of daytime heating, coverage should drop off significantly to low to medium coverage (20-50%). However, we will remain in a humid airmass, as the front moves north again into Thursday. This will keep overnight lows on the warm side Wednesday night, only dropping into the lower to mid 60s. As the front moves northward again on Thursday, additional shortwaves move along it. Combined with building instability as the front moves back over the area, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop (especially in the afternoon). Shear remains weak in most model output (less than 25 knots). That is a good thing given instability shown by guidance (1500-3000 J/KG). PWATS increase again though, so heavy downpours and frequent lightning will be fairly common. We will need to monitor for minor flash flooding issues Thursday afternoon. Things don't change through Friday, as the front doesn't move much and additional disturbances move along it through the area. This will keep highs Friday afternoon in the lower to mid 80s. There might be a bit stronger shear (0-3 km ~ 30 knots) Friday afternoon along with instability between 1000 and 3000 J/KG, just enough shear to have to worry about strong to marginally severe thunderstorm activity. Some minor flash flooding could occur on Friday as well. Overnight lows Thursday night will push higher into the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Southwesterly flow will largely persist aloft through the long term period. In addition, a series of shortwaves looks to ripple across the Southeast during the weekend and into early next week. At the surface, a cold front is slated to slowly make its way towards the Southeast through the weekend, but stall over the mid-Mississippi Valley and into the lower Ohio Valley early next week. This pattern will maintain low-level southerly flow over the region as well the continued advection of moisture up from the Gulf. Therefore, the rainy and summertime-like pattern is expected to continue through at least early next week, with daily chances (50-80%) of showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be temperated a bit by the higher rain chances each day; but, highs are forecast to generally reach the lower to mid 80s with lows in the 60s. Model PWATs generally remain between 1.6-1.8 inches throughout the period, which are over the 90th percentile when compared with Sounding Climatology from Birmingham (~1.6 inches) for May 23rd through 26th. Showers/storms will therefore be efficient rainfall producers, so we'll need to monitor for the increased risk of localized flooding for areas that receive rainfall repeatedly. As for the potential for any severe weather, guidance suggests that bulk shear values may reach around 30 knots periodically this weekend and into early next week. Therefore, there is a non-zero chance of a stronger storm or two, but confidence is low at this point. Regardless, if you have outdoor plans, make sure to stay weather aware, as lightning is dangerous whether or not a storm is severe! In addition, if you encounter any flooded roads, remember to Turn Around, Don't Drown! && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through much of the early/mid morning hours, but cloud cover will increase and ceilings will drop to around 4 kft by daybreak. A weak front will move into the Tennessee Valley today, bringing low to medium chances for SHRA/TSRA during the afternoon and evening hours. Confidence in timing is still very low so have handled with a 20-02z timeframe for now. Thereafter, lower clouds will build in and some light fog may develop in the late evening due to moist boundary layer conditions. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP.24 SHORT TERM....KTW LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...AMP  227 FXUS64 KJAN 200825 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 325 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - The potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will need to be monitored for the next several days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 322 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Through tonight: cooler and wet through the period. Early morning local radars showed a weakening band of showers and thunderstorms roughly from Brookhaven to West Point. This convective activity was along a nearly stalled outflow boundary that was ahead of a cold front that was still to the northwest of our CWA. A surface high becoming centered over the Great Lakes region will try to push the cold front into the northwest portions of our CWA today but it will be the stalled boundary already in place that convection is expected to initiate along with daytime heating. Our winds aloft will remain southwesterly and surface ridging to our east will help maintain our warm moist airmass that will fuel the convection. Although the potential for any strong to severe storms will be low through tonight, with PWATs around two inches, locally heavy rain will be possible. There will be the potential for storms to train over the same areas repeatedly that may lead to some minor runoff issues in urban and low lying areas. Otherwise, the rainfall is expected to be beneficial and help ease drought conditions. As the convection is expected to be mostly diurnal, the heavy rainfall potential will be this afternoon into early evening. /22/ Thursday through Tuesday: Wet pattern will continue as the frontal boundary stalls north of the CWA and multiple shortwave disturbances traverse the region for the rest of the week into Memorial Day. Despite rainfall, high temps will reach the low/mid 80s and lows will be in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Widespread showers and storms are likely for the ArkLaMiss region. A few storms may reach severe limits, however, organized severe weather is not anticipated as instability won't be favorable. Rainfall amounts are estimate to range from 3-6 inches over the course of the extended period, providing some drought relief. As mentioned in previous discussion, SLU CIPS analogs reveal some heavy rainfall analogs from the historic archives that suggest a flash flood threat could evolve based on our current guidance forecasts, but the details are too uncertain as of now to provide formal messaging. Keep in mind that with each day that accumulates significant rainfall, antecedent conditions will become more favorable for a flood threat. /SW,EC/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Local radars had a band of -SHRA/-TSRA across the cntrl TAF sites at 0530Z. This activity wl become -RA as it stalls over cntrl MS. Away from the TSRA VFR conditions wl prevail until after 08Z when MVFR/IFR cigs wl develop east and se. The northern TAF sites wl remain in VFR until the aftn when isold to sct -TSRA redevelop. The TSRA wl spread into east and se MS by 23Z. The TSRA wl diminish after 01Z Thu but -SHRA wl remain possible through the end of the TAF period. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 83 69 85 70 / 70 50 60 80 Meridian 87 69 86 70 / 50 50 50 60 Vicksburg 82 69 84 69 / 60 40 80 80 Hattiesburg 88 69 86 70 / 60 40 80 60 Natchez 83 70 85 70 / 80 50 80 90 Greenville 82 67 82 68 / 60 40 60 90 Greenwood 82 67 84 68 / 90 40 60 80 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 22/SW/22  368 FXUS61 KPHI 200829 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 429 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Hot and humid conditions continue, with record setting early season heat probable, through today. 2. A strong cold front brings some showers and possibly isolated severe thunderstorms to the region this afternoon and evening. 3. Significantly cooler temperatures and several rounds of showers for the end of this week and the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions continue, with record setting early season heat probable, through today. A strong upper-level ridge centered off the Southeast U.S. coast starts to flatten on its northwest side today. Though, with surface high pressure anchored in the western Atlantic a southwesterly flow of early season (anomalous) heat will continue to flow across our area today. Temperatures peak in the 90s for many areas again this afternoon, except cooler along the coasts and the higher terrain. How quickly cloud cover arrives, along with showers and some thunderstorms from an approaching cold front, will also impact high temperatures today, especially north and west of I-95. Either way though, we will have a high launching pad once again for temperatures, with lows this morning only in the upper 60s to low 70s, so it will still be rather hot this afternoon. While the surface dew points will mix out some during peak heating this afternoon due to the drier ground and boundary layer, this stretch of early season heat, with additional record breaking high temperatures probable, will have potentially greater impacts. Peak heat indices will be near 100 degrees, with the core of the heat shifting a bit more south and east today as the strong cold front starts to arrive. The Heat Advisory remains in place for across much of the region through 8 PM this evening. While some areas will probably fall a little short of criteria, particularly in Berks County, the Lehigh Valley, and into northern New Jersey where it will be cooler today ahead of the approaching front, it will still be another hot and humid day regardless. The potential for greater impacts, due to lack of acclimation this early in the season and the accumulative effect with this being the third straight day of high heat, continues to drive our decision. Along the immediate coast, where the wind turns more from the south and especially southeast will result in quite a bit of cooling due to the chilly ocean and therefore continued to not include these areas in the Heat Advisory. KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings some showers and possibly isolated severe thunderstorms to the region this afternoon and evening. A strong cold front will settle across our area this afternoon and tonight before stalling near Delmarva into Thursday. Showers and some thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front, and there looks to be a zone of higher instability across our central and southern zones this afternoon. It is in these areas where convection may try to organize a bit more as it develops eastward and encounters plenty of instability. The deep-layer shear is on the marginal side (strongest shear to our northwest) as are the mid level lapse rates, however a hot boundary layer will result in steep low-level lapse rates. The combination of the steep low-level lapse rates and any stronger convective cores, locally strong to damaging winds (downbursts) will be possible. Due to the lower shear convection may struggle to organize, however given the hot air mass in place some linear or small clustering could develop from about the Philadelphia metro on south and eastward late in the afternoon and evening. The coverage of stronger convection is of lower confidence, however given the lower shear values the severe thunderstorm risk looks isolated. General rainfall totals are 0.10- 0.50 inches, however given precipitable water values of 1.5-2.0 inches, localized higher amounts are quite possible with any stronger showers or thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms should end by late this evening, with some showers lingering in the wake of the cold front. KEY MESSAGE 3...Significantly cooler temperatures and several rounds of showers for the end of this week and the holiday weekend. A cold front is forecast to settle and then stall to our south Thursday and into the holiday weekend. Some ripples of energy ride along and north of it and this looks to bring some rounds of showers to our region. A more organized surface low well to our west may provide an increase in showers or a period of rain later Friday and Saturday. The precipitation may become enhanced some as surface high pressure to our northeast wedges southwestward into our area creating some cool air damming. Furthermore, with PWAT values around 1.50-1.90 inches over the weekend, which is around the climatological maximum for this time of the year, there is at least a marginal chance for excessive rainfall on Saturday. We will be keeping an eye on how strong the baroclinic forcing gets along the stalled boundary wedged between the high to the northeast and the low to the west. Northeast flow along with several rounds of showers will all result in much cooler temperatures Thursday through Saturday, then some warming should take place Sunday and into Memorial Day. The pattern looks active though and therefore some additional showers are quite possible right into Memorial Day. While not great timing, our region needs rain as a long-term drought continues. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Early this morning...VFR. Southwest winds 5-10 knots, becoming locally light and variable. Moderate confidence. Today...VFR overall with increasing clouds during the day. Some showers and thunderstorms arrive later in the afternoon and evening with areas of sub-VFR conditions. Locally gusty winds possible with a stronger thunderstorm. Southwest winds increasing to 10-15 knots with some gusts to 20 knots. Low confidence on timing details. Tonight...MVFR conditions possible with fog/low stratus, particularly at terminals which receive showers/storms this evening. Some lingering showers may also contribute to sub-VFR conditions, particularly at KMIV and KACY. Northerly winds around 5 knots. Low confidence. Outlook... Thursday...A period of sub-VFR conditions with some showers. Friday through Sunday...Periods of sub-VFR conditions with showers at times, especially late Friday and Saturday. && .MARINE... Southerly winds will be gusty, to 20 knots, through today, however a hot air mass over the chilly ocean water is resulting in a very strong inversion just about the surface. This is limiting the vertical mixing. While seas in the southerly flow could build to 5 feet through today, it is very marginal and therefore largely sub-SCA conditions are expected. There is the potential for isolated gusty thunderstorms late this afternoon and especially this evening. Outlook... Thursday...Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible with northeast winds gusting around 20kts. Friday and Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions should occur. Sunday...Seas may linger around 4 to 6 feet, otherwise the conditions should be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Rip Currents... On Wednesday, south to southwest winds will range from 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. There will be a southeast swell with a period around 6 seconds. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for the Jersey Shore and a LOW risk for Delaware Beaches. On Thursday, winds become northeast 10 to 15 mph at the Jersey Shore in Monmouth County, and 15 to 20 mph at the rest of the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches. There will be a southerly swell with a period around 6 seconds. Breaking waves will be 1 to 3 feet. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore in Monmouth County and a MODERATE risk for the rest of the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. Surface temperatures inland will be in the 90s again on Wednesday, temperatures along the coasts will mainly be in the 70s to near 80 due to ocean temperatures in the 50s. These cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .CLIMATE... Record-setting temperatures occurred on Tuesday, May 19th. Below is a summary of records that were tied or broken. Record High Temperatures broken on May 19th Site Record/Year Philadelphia (PHL) 96/1962 (new record 98*) Reading (RDG) 96/1962 (new record 97*) Trenton (TTN) 96/1962 (record tied) Wilmington (ILG) 95/1962 (new record 96) *The record high of 98 at Philadelphia (PHL) and 97 at Reading (RDG) also breaks or ties the all time record high for the month of May at both sites. Record Warmest Low Temperatures broken on May 19th Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 65/2017 (record tied) Mount Pocono (MPO) 60/1943 (new record 66) Reading (RDG) 68/1962 (new record 72*) *The record warmest low of 72 at Reading (RDG) also tied the all time record warmest low of 72 for the month of May, set back on May 28 & 31, 1939 and May 31, 1991. More record breaking temperatures are possible through Wednesday. High temperatures today and low temperatures Wednesday morning could challenge monthly all time records for May. Records for our climate sites are listed below: Monthly Record High Temperatures for May Site Record/Date Allentown (ABE) 97/May 19, 1962 AC Airport (ACY) 99/May 29, 1969 AC Marina (55N) 95/May 31, 1895 & May 23, 1925 Georgetown (GED) 98/May 28, 1991 Mount Pocono (MPO) 94/May 22, 1911 Philadelphia (PHL) 98/May 19, 2026 (new) Reading (RDG) 97/May 20, 1996 & May 19, 2026 Trenton (TTN) 99/May 23, 1911 & May 31, 1986 Wilmington (ILG) 98/May 10, 1895 & May 30, 1895 Monthly Record Warmest Low Temperatures for May Site Record/Date Allentown (ABE) 71/May 31, 1975, May 28 & 31, 1991 AC Airport (ACY) 73/May 24, 2004 & May 19, 2017 AC Marina (55N) 73/May 30 & 31, 1987, & May 31, 1991 Georgetown (GED) 74/May 23, 1953 & May 20, 2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 68/May 21, 1996 Philadelphia (PHL) 78/May 31, 1895 Reading (RDG) 72/May 28 & 31, 1939, May 31, 1991, & May 19, 2026 Trenton (TTN) 75/May 31, 1895 Wilmington (ILG) 75/May 30, 1895 Record High Temperatures May 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 92/1962 & 1996 AC Airport (ACY) 96/1996 AC Marina (55N) 93/1996 Georgetown (GED) 95/1962 Mount Pocono (MPO) 89/1996 Philadelphia (PHL) 94/1962 & 1996 Reading (RDG) 97/1996 Trenton (TTN) 94/1996 Wilmington (ILG) 96/1996 Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 66/2019 AC Airport (ACY) 68/1996(ties) AC Marina (55N) 69/1996 Georgetown (GED) 74/2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 61/1959 Philadelphia (PHL) 71/2019 Reading (RDG) 69/1959 & 1996 Trenton (TTN) 68/1903, 1959, & 1962 Wilmington (ILG) 70/2019 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ060>062-070- 071-101>106. NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ007>010-012- 013-015-017>020-027. DE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AKL/Gorse/MJL AVIATION...AKL/MJL MARINE...AKL/MJL/MPS  690 FXUS63 KLSX 200834 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 334 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler temperatures are expected through Friday. - There will be several chances for showers and thunderstorms over the upcoming Memorial Day weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Temperatures have dropped into the 50s early this morning behind the cold front that has now moved south of Missouri and Illinois. There are scattered showers that continue to form to the north of the front by low level frontogenesis that will gradually move south of the CWA through mid-late morning. The HREF is then showing a short wave ridge building over the Midwest later today into tonight which will keep the forecast dry into early Thursday. At the same time a large surface high will slowly move east across the Great Lakes causing the surface winds to slowly shift from northerly to easterly by tomorrow. Model guidance is showing that we will likely stay mainly cloudy through tomorrow, with lower ceilings in the southern half of the CWA today which favors cooler temperatures. Highs will likely stay in the 60s today and range from the mid 60s to mid 70s on Thursday. Britt && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 After the brief dry period on Wednesday night and Thursday, the chances for showers and thunderstorms increases over the Memorial Day weekend into next week as the LREF is showing southwesterly upper flow over Missouri and Illinois. Model guidance is consistent with a trough moving across the area late Thursday night into Friday which is when the LREF has 60-90% of its members are producing rain over the area. This is also the period when PWATS will be the highest (near 2.0") and WPC has highlighted the southern half of the CWA in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. There are lower chances on Friday night, but two or three more shortwaves will move across the area over the weekend bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms the rest of the weekend. At this point, the LREF/NBM members are keeping the better chances (40-60%) over southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois which is closer to where a surface front will be during the extended weekend. Temperatures will start to warm back up over the weekend, though as pointed out by the previous discussion, the NBM is on the warmest side of guidance. While upper heights will be building over the area which favors the warmer temperatures, they will be tempered by the clouds and rain chances which should keep highs in the 70s. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night) Issued at 1043 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR ceilings are locked in across sections of southeast Missouri through southern and west-central Illinois late this evening. Fortunately, drier air has eaten into the northwest periphery of the lower ceiling with quicker improvement over sections of central Missouri through northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois. MVFR is likely to hold over the metro terminals through much of Wednesday as the front linger to the south and low pressure pivots into the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, dry air will slowly erode MVFR ceilings through Wednesday with all site improving to VFR through the end of the 24 hour period. While a few showers could pop up overnight, direct impacts to terminals would be minor, if affected. Chances are low enough that they were not included in prevailing groups at the time. Maples && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  051 FXUS61 KOKX 200843 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 443 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A Heat Advisory remains in effect for NYC and northeast New Jersey as hot weather continues through this afternoon. 2) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, followed by lingering showers tonight into early Thursday. 3) Unsettled with periods of showers expected for the upcoming holiday weekend along with a much cooler airmass over the region. 4) Cold water safety concerns continue today with good boating weather early in the day, and water temperatures still in the 50s.s. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... No changes were made to the heat advisory for the NYC metro and NE NJ which remains in effect until 8pm. One last hot day is expected today as the region remains on the NW periphery of western Atlantic ridging. Temperatures should end up a few degrees lower compared to Tuesday in the warmest spots, but still will reach the low to potentially mid 90s in NE NJ and portions of the NYC metro away from the Atlantic coast. Elsewhere, highs will reach the mid to upper 80s except for 70s to low 80s closest to the coast. Followed the same trend as recent days and blended in some of MAV/MET guidance along with the 10th percentile of the NBM, since the NBM deterministic continues to run too hot. This is especially true for locations more impacted by a bit more onshore flow. Max heat indices will reach the mid 90s in the Advisory area and generally the upper 80s to low 90s for other locations away from the immediate coast. Temperatures and heat indices may drop significantly in the mid to late afternoon if showers and thunderstorms develop. There is a chance the Advisory will be cancelled sooner than 8pm if this scenario were to occur. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold front will move across the region this afternoon and evening. The front will serve as a mechanism to develop showers along with scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. SPC has continued to outline a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across the southern two-thirds of the region. A few of the storms may become severe with damaging wind gusts the main threat. Timing for the severe thunderstorm potential continues to be from 2pm-8pm. The latest CAMs are still offering varying coverage of convective development with some just showing isolated coverage with others scattered to a bit more numerous. The cold front will provide convergence along with falling heights aloft. Strong heating today should provide enough instability to promote convective development, first early this afternoon for the interior and then the rest of the area by mid to late afternoon. Lingering convection may still impact portions of the coast this evening as the front sags south across the area. While brief heavy downpours are possible in any shower or thunderstorm, quick storm motion will mitigate the potential for anything more than nuisance flooding. Showers will likely linger the first half of the night near the coast as the front works offshore. There may also be some redevelopment of showers late tonight into early Thursday morning as a weak wave of low pressure develops along the front. The low pressure is tied to a passing jet streak to our north, associated with a broad trough over Northern New England and southeast Canada. There is still some uncertainty with this feature as some of the model guidance keeps the showers just south of Long Island. Conditions should dry out Thursday afternoon, but lingering cloud cover may persist through much of the day. Best chance for some clearing looks to be well northwest of the NYC metro. Daytime temperatures on Thursday will only be in the 60s, 20-30 degrees cooler than Wednesday. .KEY MESSAGE 3... The end of the week will remain dry and much cooler. The dry period will be short-lived as unsettled weather with periods of showers looks likely for the upcoming holiday weekend. The frontal boundary that moves through today/Wednesday will remain to our south with multiple disturbances/waves of low pressure moving along it through the weekend. Moisture from these systems will overrun high pressure to our north and east. The main challenge for this period is timing when the most widespread shower activity will occur. The highest probabilities currently are from late Friday through early Sunday. However, there is still some uncertainty, especially if the surface ridging from the high is stronger. This would help suppress the showers a bit further south, with at least the northern half of the region seeing less rainfall. Chances for showers continue late Sunday into Memorial Day as additional energy may pass to west or northwest. Otherwise, will remain mostly cloudy through the weekend with temperatures likely running below normal for late May in the low to mid 60s. Nighttime temperatures should be in the 50s. The frontal boundary may get pushed further south by next Tuesday, which could help lower any chance for showers. .KEY MESSAGE 4... One last day of cold water safety concerns due to another day of hot air temperatures. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cold frontal passage occurs this aftn and eve. High pres builds N of the area on Thu. Mainly VFR conditions are expected through 16-18Z. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop after 16Z, with the best chance from 20-00Z. Kept TSRA chances in a PROB30 at this time as confidence in the coverage of TSRA remains uncertain. If a thunderstorm does occur, it could be strong to severe with brief strong gusty winds up to possibly 40 to 50 kt. MVFR or lower conditions possible in any TSRA. Aft the fropa, CIGS lower to around 4000ft overnight with the potential for additional shwrs. Confidence in shwrs is low so they have not been included in the TAFs. WSW winds this mrng, becoming NW this afternoon and evening aft the fropa. The flow veers further to the NE aft 8-9Z Thu. Wind speeds generally around 10-15 kt much of the TAF period with gusts to near 20 kt this afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Some variability in wind direction possible thru 12Z due to lgt flow, especially JFK where sea breeze flow near 180 true is possible thru 13Z. Amendments possible to refine timing of showers and tstms today. MVFR CIGS possible aft 00Z Thu, but the probability was too low to include in the TAFs attm. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Late Tonight: Mainly VFR with NW winds veering to the NE. Thursday: MVFR or lower conditions possible early for coastal terminals and NYC terminals at times with a chance of showers. Mainly VFR thereafter. Friday: Possible showers and MVFR conditions. Chances of showers increase late day into night. Showers become likely at night. Saturday: MVFR or lower with showers. E-NE wind gusts 15-20 kt. Sunday: MVFR or lower with chances of showers. NE wind gusts 15-20 kt during the day. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on the ocean watersthrough early this evening. Winds will likely be marginal and overall below 25 kt, but there still may be a few gusts nearshore around 25 kt. Seas should build to 5-6 ft, especially east of Fire Island Inlet. 5 ft seas could linger east of Moriches Inlet into the evening, so have extended the SCA for these waters until 11 pm. In addition to the elevated seas and marginally gusty winds, a cold frontal passage late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening will bring with it the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms with gusts in excess of 35 kt. Conditions tonight through Friday are expected to remain below SCA levels with a cold front south of the waters. The next chance for SCA conditions will be this weekend as several waves of low pressure pass along the cold front to our south. One last day of cold water safety concerns due to another day of hot air temperatures. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 20: KEWR: 72/1996 KBDR: 61/2019 KNYC: 74/1996 KLGA: 77/1996 KJFK: 63/1996 KISP: 62/1996 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ072>075-176- 178. NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ353- 355. && $$ DISCUSSION...DS AVIATION...JMC/MW MARINE...DS  230 FXUS62 KKEY 200845 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 445 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and humid conditions over the next few days will lead to a generally moderate risk of heat illness with periods of high risk conditions. - Chances of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms today will decrease to slight chance of showers and storms tonight into the holiday weekend. - Gentle to moderate easterly breezes will continue for the next several days peaking in the evenings and overnight and lulling in the afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 445 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 CIMSS products shows a mean layer ridge remains in place across the western North Atlantic with the center of this ridge near Bermuda. Embedded within the ridge is an upper level disturbance located over the Bahamas. At the surface, a high pressure system remains in place near Bermuda. Marine observation platforms surrounding the Island Chain are recording mainly east breezes near 15 knots as a result. Enhanced moisture remains in place across the Keys early this morning as GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) shows estimated PWAT values of 1.7 to 1.8 inches moving through the Keys. KBYX radar has been active for much of the overnight with widely scattered showers moving in a west northwest fashion through the Keys with occasional showers impacting the Island Chain. The showers have been struggling to develop vertically due to the northwest flow aloft attributed to the upper level disturbance to the east. This is tilting the clouds to the south and thus choking off the updrafts causing the activity to weaken as fast as they develop. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows mostly clear skies throughout the Keys. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower 80s and dew points are in the mid 70s. .FORECAST... Surface high pressure across the western North Atlantic will continue to dominate the Keys weather for the next several days. The high will maintain its strength over the next several days to week meandering in place as it does so. Gentle to moderate east breezes are expected to continue as a result peaking in the evening and overnight and lulling during the afternoons. Moisture is expected to remain elevated through at least tonight before slightly drier air rotates in from the southeast for the remainder of the week and into the holiday weekend. This will result in chances of rain today becoming slight chances for tonight on through the extended forecast. Instability will also remain elevated keeping thunder in the forecast throughout the period. Temperatures will remain quite consistent through the week with highs in the upper 80s to occasionally 90 degrees and overnight lows in the lower 80s to perhaps near 80 degrees with any showers. && .MARINE... Issued at 445 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, surface high pressure centered north of Bermuda will continue to support gentle to moderate breezes across the Florida Keys waters. Breezes are on track to slowly decrease during the week with peaks expected during the evenings and lulls during the day. Rain and thunder chances will remain above normal through much of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 445 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. Occasional periods of MVFR CIGs are possible, though, these are expected to be short-lived and mostly associated with any shower activity. Near surface winds will remain mostly easterly through the period. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1932, the daily record rainfall of 3.83 inches was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871. On this day in 2024, the daily record rainfall of 7.08" was recorded in Marathon. This also ranks as the wettest day ever recorded in May. Rainfall records for Marathon date back to June 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 81 91 81 / 30 20 20 20 Marathon 86 80 87 80 / 30 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest  690 FXUS62 KFFC 200857 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 457 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures continue through the wee with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. - Afternoon thunderstorms are possible along and north of the I-85 corridor this afternoon. - Increased rain chances return tomorrow through the weekend, especially across northern and western Georgia. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 456 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s and low 90s again this afternoon, with SW winds at 5-10 mph brining moisture back into the area. As a result, dewpoints across north and central Georgia will increase out ahead of a cold front pushing through the TN river valley area.This will increase our chance for diurnally driven thunderstorm activity during the afternoon and early evening. The best chance for pop up storms appears to be along and north of I-85. A few storms may have gusty winds, frequent lightning and small hail but the threat of severe weather remains low given the lack of shear and any lifting mechanism outside of heating. Storms will die out as the sun sets and temps will fall into the mid 60s again during the overnight hours. Tomorrow looks to be similar, although we're anticipating a wider coverage of showers and thunderstorms across northern GA as the approaching cold front stalls out along the GA/TN border. Like today, the threat for severe weather tomorrow will be low though a few storms could be strong to marginally severe during the late afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 456 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 The summer-like pattern strengthens through the long term outlook as near surface flow turns from northeast, around the coastal low, to the southwest with the building ridge. Moisture increases across the area with 50th percentile PWATs climbing over 1.6 to 1.7 inches by the weekend. As conditions moisten, temperatures will climb into the 80s to near 90F. The modest upper level jet will send shortwave energy across the TN valley through the period. This means PoPs and QPF will be greatest across north and northwest Georgia, decreasing to the south and east. The given thunderstorm mode will be conducive to locally heavy rainfall. It is likely that somewhere in the CWA will see more than 1" of rainfall each day. This, however, will be contrasted by areas which simultaneously receive little to no precipitation. A boom or bust scenario if you will. All that said, it is unlikely that anyone will go without at least some rain once the end of this period concludes. Storm potential through the period remains modest for pulse convection, with instability peaking around 1500 to 2500 J/Kg. A few strong storms cannot be fully ruled out at this time. The main hazards will be gusty winds and frequent lightning, as well as the potential for flash flooding should storm motion be particularly slow. As we get into next week, the upper level ridge experiences a Rossby wave break. This could quickly turn flow out of the northwest. When combining the available moisture, daytime instability, and upper level NW flow, conditions may be primed for a more classic summertime MCS set-up (I'm looking at you summer 2023 0-0). Models, of course, have a hard time realizing these types of scenarios this far out and forecast confidence more than 6-7 days out remains relatively low. Just something to keep an eye out for as we get through Memorial Day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 117 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR start to the TAFs. Ceilings will become BKN after 14Z with a SCT CU field at 4-5k ft. Between 19-00Z, there is alow end chance for TSRA. Due to low confidence, will keep a PROB30 rather than issue a TEMPO group. Winds will be light and variable at times, but a wind shift is expected this afternoon from the SE to the SW after 14Z //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium to low on TSRA. High on all elements. Vaughn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 92 67 89 66 / 10 10 60 50 Atlanta 89 69 86 68 / 30 40 70 50 Blairsville 85 62 80 61 / 40 40 80 80 Cartersville 89 65 85 66 / 50 50 80 60 Columbus 91 68 90 68 / 30 30 20 20 Gainesville 88 67 85 66 / 30 30 80 70 Macon 91 68 91 68 / 10 10 40 30 Rome 88 63 84 64 / 50 40 80 70 Peachtree City 89 66 87 66 / 40 30 60 40 Vidalia 92 68 92 69 / 0 0 20 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vaughn LONG TERM....SM AVIATION...Vaughn