690 FXUS65 KPIH 200321 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 921 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost and freeze conditions continue again into Wednesday morning. - Gradual warming trend is underway this week. - Best chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 134 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 General "troughiness" remains over eastern Idaho today, continuing our mildly unsettled pattern. Any precipitation chances today and fairly limited to the higher elevations farther north. Afternoon wind gusts will fall into the 20-25 mph range for most. Light winds and partly cloud conditions overnight will keep us a few degrees warmer than this morning was, so have gone with a FREEZE WARNING for the Mud Lake/Arco Desert zone where temperatures will be between 29 and 32 degrees and FROST ADVISORY for the rest of our Snake River Plain zones where temperatures will be between 33 and 37 degrees. After Wednesday morning, we might get a break from frost/freeze products on Thursday morning, though the Mud Lake/Arco Desert zone will be close once again. One shortwave moves out of the area on Wednesday for a low to drop south of out Canada and into northern Montana late Wednesday into Thursday. The troughing associated with that low will impact us late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms, particularly in the Central Mountains, Eastern Highlands, and upper Snake River Plain. Precipiation will spread southeast through Wednesday night and any Thursday activity would be in the Eastern and Southeastern Highlands. This overnight movement of moisture will bring some light snow to the mountain tops, but impacts to travel is not expected. By Thursday, winds will swing around to be out of the north and cool us off a few degrees from the mid and upper 60s on Wednesday to the low and mid 60s on Thursday. Given the northerly winds, we may need a LAKE WIND ADVISORY, too, but it is borderline. By Friday morning, temperatures will be chilly again, ranging from the low 30s to low 40s for most. But drier conditions are back by Friday morning, too, and will stay mostly dry through the holiday weekend with temperatures climbing into the mid 70s to low 80s by Saturday and more 80s on Sunday and Memorial Day. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 920 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Winds have settled down for the night. A few mid to high level clouds may drift over the sites overnight. Expect winds to increase mid to late afternoon with increasing clouds through the day. SUN should turn upvalley around midday with a gradual turn to the southwest late in the afternoon. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for IDZ051- 053>055. Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for IDZ052. && $$ DISCUSSION...AMM AVIATION...13  752 FXUS63 KJKL 200323 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1123 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and mainly dry weather will persist through this evening. - Shower and thunderstorms will become more prevalent tonight and Wednesday, with rain chances continuing through the upcoming holiday weekend. - The switch to an active and wetter pattern yields temperatures closer to normal readings, and is likely to provide at least temporary relief from developing and ongoing drought conditions. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1123 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 The main change to the forecast was to lower overnight PoPs in our western and northern counties; this better reflects radar trends given a lull in showers and storms. Temperatures and dewpoints were also nudged to better fit current observations. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track at this time. UPDATE Issued at 707 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 Given ongoing convection located primarily in Whitley and Laurel counties, the main change to the forecast at this time was to increase hourly PoPs for the southwestern portion of our forecast area. Convective coverage is still expected to diminish around sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Other than that, temperatures and dewpoints were nudged and winds were adjusted to be more in line with current observations. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 400 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 One more hot and mostly sunny afternoon is underway across eastern Kentucky. Satellite imagery shows an extensive cumulus field across the area and radar shows some spotty convection near and west of the Pottsville Escarpment. Thermometers are also near record territory for this date, ranging in the mid 80s for most. The latest weather map shows the high pressure responsible for the hot and dry weather of recent days now departing off the East Coast, though still dominating over the southeast US. Meanwhile, an ~1004 mb surface low is situated northeast of Lake Superior while a cold front extends southward from the low across the Ozarks and Southern Plains. Aloft, an around 588 dam ridge remains over much of the Southeast CONUS. Upstream, a 500 hPa trough is passing through Central Canada and brushing the northern Plains while a trailing shortwave is situated over the Great Basin. Vorticity energy is streaming northeastward from the Western Gulf area and across the mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys in the southwest flow between these troughs and the Southeastern ridge. The northern stream trough will flatten and lift into eastern Canada through the short-term period along with the remnant Great Basin shortwave trailing as the ridging only slowly subsides over the Southeast CONUS. Meanwhile, the surface low will lift northeast toward Labrador while deepening ~990 mb. The low's trailing cold front will only slowly cross the Lower Ohio River late tonight and sag across eastern Kentucky during the day on Wednesday. Initially, upper level vort energy ejecting northeast from the Western Gulf coast should aid in the development of diurnally- driven scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening, primarily near and west of the Pottsville Escarpment though an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out further east. Renewed convective activity may impact locations near and north of I-64 Wednesday morning predawn as the boundary approaches our area. Ahead of this boundary, the 19/12z HREF shows 1000 to 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE building by afternoon with 20 to 30 kts of surface-500 hPa shear south of I-64 by Wednesday midday to afternoon. This may be sufficient for some cell organization, especially for convection that develops discretely or in clusters out ahead of the cold frontal boundary. SPC has included most of the area under a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Wednesday for an isolated hail or damaging wind threat. Cloud layer winds will tend to force cells that develop along the actual cold front to move back atop a more stable post-frontal environment, limiting overall extent and vigor of convection along the true surface boundary. While PWATs ahead of the boundary will rise to near or over 1.50 inches, progressive cell movement and dry antecedent conditions (Moderate to Extreme Drought) should preclude any notable hydro concerns outside any urban/poor drainage areas that get a quick inch or two of rain under the heaviest activity. For Wednesday night, shower activity, mainly light, is likely to linger as disturbances aloft continue to drift over the forecast area. In sensible terms, spotty shower and thunderstorm activity will continue through mid-evening, diminishing after sunset. Showers may develop again toward morning, especially near and north of I-64 and closer to central Kentucky. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the lower to middle 60s. Additional shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to spread in from the northwest on Wednesday with highs ranging in the upper 70s northwest of I-64 to the upper 80s in the deepest valleys near the KY-VA border. Showers linger Wednesday night while temperatures settle back into the lower 50s north of I-64 to the mid 60s near the KY- TN border. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 330 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 The forecast period begins with the region situated on the backside of a departing cold front. Although the boundary will be sagging southward, scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible across the area. Given marginal instability and weak kinematic profiles, severe weather is not anticipated, and activity should remain largely garden-variety. Ongoing precipitation and cloud cover will suppress daytime heating, keeping afternoon highs on the cooler side. Temperatures are forecast to reach the lower 70s across the northern portions of the area, while areas along the Tennessee border should top out in the upper 70s. Overnight lows for Thursday into Friday morning will remain mild as a quasi-stationary boundary begins to lift northward as a warm front, initiating a warming trend. This warm front will cross the region on Friday, serving as the catalyst for widespread showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. While marginal thermodynamic indices will once again favor pulse-type, non-severe convection, the primary hazard shifts toward heavy rainfall and high precipitation efficiency. This wet pattern will persist through the weekend as precipitable water values climb well above 1.50 inches within a deep moisture profile characterized by a skinny CAPE distribution. Furthermore, ECMWF Shift of Tails (SoT) values are progged to approach 0.8 on Friday before exceeding 0.8 Sunday into Monday. For context, a SoT greater than 0.8 is highly indicative of an unusual event relative to the climatological norm. As Fridays synoptic evolution locks the region into a pattern supportive of repeated training rounds of convection, this event may ultimately be classified as climatologically anomalous. An analysis of the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble systems reveals strong model consensus, with nearly all Total QPF members indicating that rainfall totals upwards of 3.00 inches are possible through Monday morning. The current deterministic forecast package projects widespread QPF amounts ranging from 2.00 inches in the Lake Cumberland area to 2.75 inches across northeastern portions of the forecast area. Locations along the West Virginia and Virginia borders will likely see lower totals due to local downsloping effects. Once the stalled boundary finally shifts eastward on Monday, another surface low is progged to develop and track northeastward into the area. This system will bring a secondary round of showers and storms, keeping the region wet through the remainder of the forecast period. As a side note, since the area is dry, heavy rainfall on top of moisture starved ground could create runoff issues leading to potential hydrologic issues. Ultimately, this period will highlight a distinct regime shift away from the persistent dry pattern observed over the last few weeks toward a much wetter synoptic setup. While the expected heavy rainfall will help reduce the current precipitation deficit, overall totals will still track below normal for this time of year. Due to persistent cloud cover and rain, daytime highs will remain capped in the upper 70s to lower 80s, while overnight lows drop into the lower to middle 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 Following current radar trends, PROB30 groups were added for KSYM and KIOB east of ongoing convection in Central KY, although this activity should generally diminish as it approaches after sunset. Between 04Z and 13Z, valley fog could bring visibility reductions to MVFR or lower, but this is not currently expected to impact TAF sites. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out overnight, but confidence remains low. Tomorrow, generally by the 15z to 18Z timeframe, convection will become more widespread as a cold front approaches. PROB30 groups were added after 15Z or 16Z to account for thunder chances at TAF sites, with MVFR to IFR or lower reductions possible in strongest cells. The strongest storms could also produce localized gusts in excess of 30 kts. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...FAGAN/JP SHORT TERM...GEERTSON LONG TERM...VORST AVIATION...FAGAN/JP  842 FXUS64 KHUN 200327 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1027 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1014 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Low to medium chances (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms return tonight. - Medium to high chances (50-90%) of showers and thunderstorms then persist each day from Wednesday through early next week. No severe weather is forecast. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight and Wednesday) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop ahead of a trough axis that extends from a surface low over southeastern Canada through northern Indiana into southeast Missouri and eastern Arkansas. Fairly strong forcing aloft at 500 mb is seen along this trough axis. Further east in Mississippi and southeastern Arkansas, the strongest forcing is concentrated around 700 mb with 500 to 1500 J/KG of SBCAPE shown in SPC meso-analysis. Shear is very weak. The main question is how deep the stronger forcing will be and how much instability we will have towards 1 AM into the early morning hours on Wednesday this far east. Most guidance weakens forcing around 700 mb significantly during that period, but strong vorticity develops in several models towards daybreak on Wednesday that pivots from NE Mississippi into NW Alabama. Models hold onto between 300 and 800 J/KG of SBCAPE in NW Alabama. Shear remains weak, but does increase to around 25 knots towards daybreak. Expect the current activity over NW Mississippi to push more to the NNE overall. Though, models do show additional convection moving into NW Alabama maybe as early 4 AM. Confidence is low in the forecast, but given the strength of the forcing around 500 mb by models moving into NW Alabama between 4 AM and 7 AM, thinking that coverage in NW Alabama at least will increase significantly. Though at this time, think this will be general thunderstorm activity. Expect this activity to continue to increase in coverage as it moves east during the day on Wednesday. Guidance develops between 1500 and 2000 J/KG of SBCAPE over the area as the surface front is slow to moves southeast through the area. This will make for a cloudy and rainy day on Wednesday with some areas receiving between 1/4 and 3/4 of an inch of rainfall with some locally higher amounts possible. This will provide a break from the hotter temperatures we have been seeing the last few days. Highs will likely only reach the lower to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 With weak shear remaining over the area near the front on Wednesday night and the loss of daytime heating, coverage should drop off significantly to low to medium coverage (20-50%). However, we will remain in a humid airmass, as the front moves north again into Thursday. This will keep overnight lows on the warm side Wednesday night, only dropping into the lower to mid 60s. As the front moves northward again on Thursday, additional shortwaves move along it. Combined with building instability as the front moves back over the area, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop (especially in the afternoon). Shear remains weak in most model output (less than 25 knots). That is a good thing given instability shown by guidance (1500-3000 J/KG). PWATS increase again though, so heavy downpours and frequent lightning will be fairly common. We will need to monitor for minor flash flooding issues Thursday afternoon. Things don't change through Friday, as the front doesn't move much and additional disturbances move along it through the area. This will keep highs Friday afternoon in the lower to mid 80s. There might be a bit stronger shear(0-3 km ~ 30 knots) Friday afternoon along with instability between 1000 and 3000 J/KG, just enough shear to have to worry about strong to marginally severe thunderstorm activity. Some minor flash flooding could occur on Friday as well. Overnight lows Thursday night will push higher into the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Southwesterly flow will largely persist aloft through the long term period. In addition, a series of shortwaves looks to ripple across the Southeast during the weekend and into early next week. At the surface, a cold front is slated to slowly make its way towards the Southeast through the weekend, but stall over the mid-Mississippi Valley and into the lower Ohio Valley early next week. This pattern will maintain low-level southerly flow over the region as well the continued advection of moisture up from the Gulf. Therefore, the rainy and summertime-like pattern is expected to continue through at least early next week, with daily chances (50-80%) of showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be temperated a bit by the higher rain chances each day; but, highs are forecast to generally reach the lower to mid 80s with lows in the 60s. Model PWATs generally remain between 1.6-1.8 inches throughout the period, which are over the 90th percentile when compared with Sounding Climatology from Birmingham (~1.6 inches) for May 23rd through 26th. Showers/storms will therefore be efficient rainfall producers, so we'll need to monitor for the increased risk of localized flooding for areas that receive rainfall repeatedly. As for the potential for any severe weather, guidance suggests that bulk shear values may reach around 30 knots periodically this weekend and into early next week. Therefore, there is a non-zero chance of a stronger storm or two, but confidence is low at this point. Regardless, if you have outdoor plans, make sure to stay weather aware, as lightning is dangerous whether or not a storm is severe! In addition, if you encounter any flooded roads, remember to Turn Around, Don't Drown! && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 651 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Not much change in the forecast, with VFR conditions expected with winds becoming light this evening. Not too many clouds (mainly scattered and high clouds) this evening. Expect CIGS around 4000 feet to 5000 feet to develop around 6Z at KMSL and closer to 7Z or 8Z at KHSV. -SHRA will likely push into the KMSL terminal around or just after 11Z and closer to 14Z or 15Z at KHSV. Included a prob30 group for -TSRA between 15Z and 18Z at both terminals. This will likely need to be extended and changed to a tempo or predominant group depending on future model output. During this period, MVFR to IFR CIGS or VSBYS could occur. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KTW SHORT TERM....KTW LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...KTW  063 FXUS64 KBRO 200334 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1034 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1031 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Key Messages: * Day-to-day or near day-to-day chances for showers and thunderstorms is expected through next weekend and possibly beyond amid a major shift in the weather pattern. * Strong to severe thunderstorms along with heavy rainfall and localized flooding is possible through next weekend. * There is a low-medium chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday morning; greatest chances over the Northern Ranchlands. * The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has all of Deep South Texas under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms with the exception of northern Jim Hogg and Zapata counties which is under a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5). * The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has our northwestern sections under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall Wednesday evening/night and all of Deep South Texas under a Marginal Risk for both Thursday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An increasingly active/wet weather pattern signifying a major pattern change from dry to wet remains the primary weather concern through the forecast period or through early next week. Through tonight and into Wednesday morning, we're tracking trends and the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop as ongoing convection over Central Texas propagates southward along an outflow boundary. As of this update, there remains a low-medium (20- 60%) chance/confidence for showers and thunderstorms to develop and impact our region. As far as timing, the estimated time of arrival for storms is expected to be somewhere between midnight and 9 AM CDT Wednesday morning. One of the primary uncertainties is whether or not the MCSs/complexes of storms upstream across Central Texas will maintain it's momentum as it propagates southward through tonight into Wednesday morning. Some of the latest models favors a more eastward placement suggesting that most of the activity will pass to our northeast (i.e. Coastal areas of Corpus Christi) by Wednesday morning with maybe some stratiform showers/isolated thunder developing along or immediately behind the outflow boundary. Capping and the time of day could also serve as limiting factors in the magnitude of storms, especially further south along the Rio Grande Valley. That said, the best chances are across the Rio Grande Plains and the Northern Ranchlands tonight through Wednesday morning. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has maintained a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms though tonight into Wednesday morning for all of Deep South Texas with the exception of northern Zapata and Jim Hogg Counties, which are under a Slight Risk. A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall has been applied to northern Brooks, jim Hogg, and Zapata counties. We'll continue to monitor trends through tonight and update as necessary. Wednesday through early next week, day-to-day or near day-to-day rain chances is expected. Driving this active pattern is an active southwest flow aloft sub-tropical jet in which multiple impulses/shortwave energies tracking over the Sierra Madre, and a nearby frontal boundary to our north. Persistent southerly flow near the sfc will continue to pool in deep tropical moisture helping to maintain high atmospheric water content through early next week. This is justified with sample maximum precipitable water (PWAT) values between 1.80-2.50 inches, some 1-3 STDEVs above normal and above the 90th percentile of sounding climatology for mid to late May. Furthermore, high instability values will be present through this week with steep mid level lapse rates between 6.5-8.0 C/km, SBCAPE values between 2,000-4,000 J/kg, MLCAPE values between 1,000-2,000 J/kg, a moderately to very unstable atmosphere with Showalter values ranging between -2 and -6. All in all, the combination of a favorable mid-upper level 500 mb steering pattern, high atmospheric moisture content, and high instability will support a noticeable change to a wetter/active weather pattern through the remainder of this week and possibly beyond. The best chances for rain this week looks to be on Thursday and then again over the weekend (i.e. Friday night through Sunday). Wednesday evening/night, 30-50% PoPs exist primarily along and west of IH-69C/US-281. Thursday-Thursday night, 30-60% chances exists with widespread categorical chances (50-60%) for showers and thunderstorms exists during the day on Thursday, and over the Northern Ranchlands and areas along and west of IH-69C/US-281. Meanwhile, 30-50% chances exists over the mid-lower Rio Grande Valley on Thursday. Friday night through Sunday, PoPs range between 40-70%. Additional chances (to a lower extent; between 20-50%) exists through early next week. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible given the atmospheric and forcing ingredients highlighted above. However, heavy rainfall will be the primary threat. Given the high atmospheric moisture content available, heavy rainfall and instances of flooding is possible through next weekend. This is especially true for slow moving thunderstorms that repeatedly track over the same areas. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has our northwestern section (i.e. Zapata, Jim Hogg, Starr, and northwestern Brooks) under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall for Wednesday Night and all of Deep South Texas under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall for both Thursday and Saturday. Through Saturday, quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) or rainfall amounts are still expected to range between 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. The rain to come will certainly prove to be beneficial, helping to further improve the D1 (Moderate) to D2 (Severe) Drought status across the region. Temperature-wise, the combination of the heat ridge relaxing and day-to-day storm chances will allow for temperatures to run near normal levels for late May. Through early next week, high temperatures will generally range between the upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight lows will run slightly above normal with readings mainly in the 70s (lower 80s Cameron County and over SPI). && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 549 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Through 00z Thursday....VFR-MVFR conditions will prevail through the 00z TAF cycle. VFR conditions will be more prevalent during the afternoon-evening hours with MVFR conditions more prevalent during the night-morning hours. Showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight in association with a squall line that will be approaching from central Texas. Currently, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in whether or not those storms make it into the Rio Grande Valley. That said, at this time, have not included shower or thunderstorm headlines in the TAFs. Southeast winds will continue through the forecast period with speeds between 8-13 knots and gusts as high as 20-25 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Adverse (Small Craft Exercise Caution) conditions will persist through Thursday evening. Friday through early next week, moderate seas along with light to moderate winds are expected. Daily or near daily shower and thunderstorm chances will be around through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 9280 91 / 10 10 10 30 HARLINGEN 78 92 76 91 / 20 10 10 50 MCALLEN 79 94 78 92 / 30 20 20 50 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 94 75 91 / 40 40 40 50 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 85 81 85 / 20 10 10 30 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 90 79 89 / 20 10 10 40 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23-Evbuoma LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma AVIATION...23-Evbuoma  125 FXUS63 KICT 200337 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1037 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Below normal temperatures will continue through Thursday, with highs around 10 degrees below normal. - Rain chances will start to increase Wednesday night and will remain through Thursday evening. Even though most locations will get wet through this time period, we are not looking for any organized severe storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Currently have a shortwave trough extending from southwest Ontario, through the Northern Plains and into the Central Great Basin. The two main vort lobes are situated over the Upper Mississippi Valley and over the Central Great Basin. Strong cold front that moved through last night is now located from central MO into southeast OK. Unseasonably cold airmass is in place across the Plains with highs today around 25-30 degrees cooler than Monday's readings! This airmass will remain place for tonight with many locations across central and western KS falling into the upper 30s to low 40s. For tonight through most of Wed, upper trough will remain through the Great Basin with a more robust piece of energy starting to dig across the Northern Rockies on Wed night. Outside of a few rogue showers over far southeast KS tonight into Wed, the majority of the forecast area will remain dry through Wed. Stationary front will remain to our south and will start to wash out on Wed. By Wed night, shortwave will continue to dig across the Northern Rockies to the Great Basin and at the same time, there is decent model agreement that some southern stream upper energy will start to lift out of southwest TX. This will place most of the region in an area of deep isentropic lift and mid level theta-e advection for Wed night through Thu. We will also remain in the right entrance region of an upper jet. This will result in fairly widespread showers and isolated storms starting Wed night and continuing on Thu. At this point it appears the most widespread activity will be Thu evening for the Flint Hills into southeast KS as the southern stream impulse lifts across the area. We should see an overall decrease in precip on Fri as the southern stream wave lifts out and the main upper trough swings northeast across the Central Plains. However for Sat, yet another weak upper perturbation is set to swing across the forecast area, keeping at least some small precip chances in through Sat evening. Then another southern stream impulse is expected to once again lift out of southwest TX and bring widespread rain to the Southern Plains for Sat night through Sun night. The GFS is much quicker to close this low off and lift it north, spreading widespread precip into much of our forecast area. However, it appears to be the outlier at this time. As far as temps go, below normal readings will remain for both Wed and Thu, as we get back closer to seasonal values for Fri into the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1034 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR ceilings continue to linger over the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas while VFR prevails over central and south central Kansas. Very little change is anticipated through the night although the stratus may build downward approaching IFR during the predawn hours in southeast Kansas. Light northeast winds will prevail tonight gradually veering to the east on Wednesday. Low clouds may linger over the CNU terminal through the 24-hour period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...MWM  279 FXUS64 KBRO 200344 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1044 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1042 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Key Messages: * Day-to-day or near day-to-day chances for showers and thunderstorms is expected through next weekend and possibly beyond amid a major shift in the weather pattern. * Strong to severe thunderstorms along with heavy rainfall and localized flooding is possible through next weekend. * There is a low-medium chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday morning; greatest chances over the Northern Ranchlands. * The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has all of Deep South Texas under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms with the exception of northern Jim Hogg and Zapata counties which is under a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5). * The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has our northwestern sections under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall Wednesday evening/night and all of Deep South Texas under a Marginal Risk for both Thursday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1042 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An increasingly active/wet weather pattern signifying a major pattern change from dry to wet remains the primary weather concern through the forecast period or through early next week. Through tonight and into Wednesday morning, we're tracking trends and the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop as ongoing convection over Central Texas propagates southward along an outflow boundary. As of this update, there remains a low-medium (20- 60%) chance/confidence for showers and thunderstorms to develop and impact our region. As far as timing, the estimated time of arrival for storms is expected to be somewhere between the hours of 3-9 AM CDT Wednesday morning. One of the primary uncertainties is whether or not the MCSs/complexes of storms upstream across Central Texas will maintain it's momentum as it propagates southward through tonight into Wednesday morning. Some of the latest models favors a more eastward placement suggesting that most of the activity will pass to our northeast (i.e. Coastal areas of Corpus Christi) by Wednesday morning with maybe some stratiform showers/isolated thunder developing along or immediately behind the outflow boundary. Capping and the time of day could also serve as limiting factors in the magnitude of storms, especially further south along the Rio Grande Valley. That said, the best chances are across the Rio Grande Plains and the Northern Ranchlands tonight through Wednesday morning. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has maintained a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms though tonight into Wednesday morning for all of Deep South Texas with the exception of northern Zapata and Jim Hogg Counties, which are under a Slight Risk. A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall has been applied to northern Brooks, jim Hogg, and Zapata counties. We'll continue to monitor trends through tonight and update as necessary. Wednesday through early next week, day-to-day or near day-to-day rain chances is expected. Driving this active pattern is an active southwest flow aloft sub-tropical jet in which multiple impulses/shortwave energies tracking over the Sierra Madre, and a nearby frontal boundary to our north. Persistent southerly flow near the sfc will continue to pool in deep tropical moisture helping to maintain high atmospheric water content through early next week. This is justified with sample maximum precipitable water (PWAT) values between 1.80-2.50 inches, some 1-3 STDEVs above normal and above the 90th percentile of sounding climatology for mid to late May. Furthermore, high instability values will be present through this week with steep mid level lapse rates between 6.5-8.0 C/km, SBCAPE values between 2,000-4,000 J/kg, MLCAPE values between 1,000-2,000 J/kg, a moderately to very unstable atmosphere with Showalter values ranging between -2 and -6. All in all, the combination of a favorable mid-upper level 500 mb steering pattern, high atmospheric moisture content, and high instability will support a noticeable change to a wetter/active weather pattern through the remainder of this week and possibly beyond. The best chances for rain this week looks to be on Thursday and then again over the weekend (i.e. Friday night through Sunday). Wednesday evening/night, 30-50% PoPs exist primarily along and west of IH-69C/US-281. Thursday-Thursday night, 30-60% chances exists with widespread categorical chances (50-60%) for showers and thunderstorms exists during the day on Thursday, and over the Northern Ranchlands and areas along and west of IH-69C/US-281. Meanwhile, 30-50% chances exists over the mid-lower Rio Grande Valley on Thursday. Friday night through Sunday, PoPs range between 40-70%. Additional chances (to a lower extent; between 20-50%) exists through early next week. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible given the atmospheric and forcing ingredients highlighted above. However, heavy rainfall will be the primary threat. Given the high atmospheric moisture content available, heavy rainfall and instances of flooding is possible through next weekend. This is especially true for slow moving thunderstorms that repeatedly track over the same areas. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has our northwestern section (i.e. Zapata, Jim Hogg, Starr, and northwestern Brooks) under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall for Wednesday Night and all of Deep South Texas under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall for both Thursday and Saturday. Through Saturday, quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) or rainfall amounts are still expected to range between 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. The rain to come will certainly prove to be beneficial, helping to further improve the D1 (Moderate) to D2 (Severe) Drought status across the region. Temperature-wise, the combination of the heat ridge relaxing and day-to-day storm chances will allow for temperatures to run near normal levels for late May. Through early next week, high temperatures will generally range between the upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight lows will run slightly above normal with readings mainly in the 70s (lower 80s Cameron County and over SPI). && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 549 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Through 00z Thursday....VFR-MVFR conditions will prevail through the 00z TAF cycle. VFR conditions will be more prevalent during the afternoon-evening hours with MVFR conditions more prevalent during the night-morning hours. Showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight in association with a squall line that will be approaching from central Texas. Currently, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in whether or not those storms make it into the Rio Grande Valley. That said, at this time, have not included shower or thunderstorm headlines in the TAFs. Southeast winds will continue through the forecast period with speeds between 8-13 knots and gusts as high as 20-25 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 1042 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Adverse (Small Craft Exercise Caution) conditions will persist through Thursday evening. Friday through early next week, moderate seas along with light to moderate winds are expected. Daily or near daily shower and thunderstorm chances will be around through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 8092 80 91 / 10 10 10 30 HARLINGEN 78 92 76 91 / 20 10 10 50 MCALLEN 79 94 78 92 / 30 20 20 50 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 94 75 91 / 40 40 40 50 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 85 81 85 / 20 10 10 30 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 90 79 89 / 20 10 10 40 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23-Evbuoma LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma AVIATION...23-Evbuoma  485 FXUS64 KLUB 200346 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1046 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1046 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Overcast and some fog returns Wednesday, with chances for showers and thunderstorms arriving late Wednesday morning. - Brief, heavy rainfall will be common with storms Wednesday, with hail up to quarter size possible. - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue through this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1046 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 01Z upper air analysis depicts a large-scale, positively-tilted trough over the Intermountain West, with an ill-defined vorticity lobe evident on recent water-vapor imagery that was ejecting northeastward over Baja Sur and into northern Mexico. A disheveled and expansive baroclinic leaf is present, as it has been stretched out while rounding the base of the trough is it begins to become absorbed into the right-entrance region to a 250 mb jet streak that was objectively analyzed at 95 kt per the 20/00Z UA charts. Broadly cyclonic flow will be maintained over the CWA throughout the course of the short-term period, with the right-entrance region to the mid- and high-level jet streaks translating eastward and over W TX by Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, a subtle shortwave trough embedded within the larger-scale flow has resulted in thunderstorms far to the south of the CWA, with thick anvil debris advecting poleward over the Rolling Plains and eclipsing the Caprock. Low-level clouds have since mixed out on the Caprock, but with northeasterly flow persisting at 850 mb, low stratus remains dammed over the Rolling Plains per METAR data at CDS and VUF. Occasional breaks in the anvil debris field have also revealed the extent of the stratus deck. Fog is forecast to develop across portions of the Rolling Plains, and perhaps the Caprock, Wednesday morning as the lower boundary-layer nears its saturation point during the predawn hours. At the surface, the cold front that crossed through the CWA earlier this morning has stalled across the southern portion of the Edwards Plateau, and bends northwestward into the TX Big Bend and beyond into the southern Rocky Mountains. A lee cyclone was analyzed near the Sierra del Carmen, with WTM data observing the northern periphery of the low; and the quasi-stationary/slow-moving cold front then branches eastward into the Llano Uplift before bending northward towards central N TX. This front is expected to remain anchored across that corridor for the next 24 hours, which will maintain the upslope/easterly flow across the CWA tonight into Wednesday. However, the western periphery of the stalled front will serve as an impetus for the initiation of clusters of showers and thunderstorms by late Wednesday morning for portions of the CWA. The vorticity lobe analyzed over Baja Sur will emerge over the TX Big Bend and eastern NM near sunrise Wednesday, with the anomaly becoming stretched and elongated as it ejects over the CWA. This will occur in conjuction with the right-entrance region of the 250 mb jet streak translating over W TX, facilitating a net increase in high-level divergence and subtle geopotential height falls atop the stable, post-frontal airmass. Elevated, fast-moving clusters of showers and storms are forecast to develop by late Wednesday morning and into the early afternoon hours as the PV anomaly ejects over the CWA. The subtle geopotential height falls and backing of deep-layer flow aloft towards the southwest will advect the EML observed by the 20/00Z RAOBs from MAF and MMCU over the CWA, with MUCAPE values increasing to 1,000-1,500 J/kg atop the stable and near-saturated boundary-layer. Modest effective shear magnitudes near 30 kt and somewhat elongated hodographs in the mid/upper-levels will yield the potential for weak, mid-level mesocyclones to develop within the elevated storms; and with parcel trajectories rooted above the stable airmass, hail up to quarter size will be the predominant severe-related hazard with storms Wednesday. Brief, heavy rainfall will be common with storms otherwise, although the quick progression of storms will curtail the potential for flash flooding. The dense overcast will restrict diabatic heating, with highs forecast to struggle to breach 70 degrees across most of the CWA, especially as the upslope flow is maintained through most of the day. Storm chances will wane by the evening, with cool and damp conditions expected overnight into Thursday along with the potential for fog. Sincavage && .LONG TERM... (Thursday morning through next Tuesday) Issued at 1046 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Large-scale troughing will persist across the western U.S. Thursday, with a compact, shortwave trough forecast to dig into the Mosquito and Sawatch Ranges. Broadly cyclonic flow will be maintained over the CWA, albeit a dearth in magnitude as it becomes subgeostrophic between the base of the shortwave trough to the north-northwest of the CWA and the quasi-zonal, subtropical jet streak nosing into the Sierra Madre Occidental. Another small-scale, shortwave trough is forecast to eject into western TX Thursday, with the boundary-layer becoming weakly capped as low-level stratus erodes. Temperatures are forecast to be 5-7 degrees warmer than Wednesday, but with minimal MLCINH forecast as warmer theta-e air advects into the CWA as a weak, low-level jet near 25 kt backs towards the southeast by late Thursday afternoon, clusters of storms are forecast to develop and move towards the east-northeast across the CWA Thursday afternoon and evening. Isolated instances of marginally-severe hail will be possible given a slight uptick in effective shear magnitudes to around 35 kt amidst the maintained EML. NBM PoPs have been adjusted accordingly to reflect the best timing. Isolated storm chances are forecast to continue for portions of the Rolling Plains by Friday, with area-wide chances into the weekend. The large-scale troughing is forecast to attenuate and split into lower-amplitude shortwave troughs, with the southern-stream shortwave trough arriving by this weekend. Warmer temperatures will follow, with the best storm chances appearing to be east of the I-27 corridor Friday and into the weekend. Some storms may be strong-to-severe, but mesoscale details remain nebulous with this prognostication. Additional storm chances may arrive early next week, but predictability is limited. Sincavage && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR will prevail at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW through roughly 20/05Z, or midnight CDT, with low CIGs forecast to develop at all terminals during the predawn hours Wednesday. IFR CIGs will be accompanied by reductions to VSBYs as well. Easterly winds will become slightly breezy overnight, with CIGs gradually lifting by the late morning and early afternoon hours. VCSH cannot be ruled out during this time. By Wednesday afternoon, there exists a possibility for TSTMs to move over W TX and affect KLBB and KPVW into the evening. PROB30 groups have been assigned to those terminals for this TAF cycle. MVFR CIGs are forecast to linger at KLBB and KPVW through the end of the TAF period, with overcast lifting to VFR at KCDS by Wednesday afternoon. Sincavage && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...09  502 FXUS64 KOUN 200347 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1047 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1016 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Cool, below normal temperatures today through Thursday. Near normal temperatures will return by the end of the week through early next week. - Shower and storm chances continue Wednesday through early next week. A few strong storms may be possible late this week. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The cold front has moved through all except the southeastern part of the forecast area, and the significant thunderstorms have moved out. But winds above the frontal boundary continue to be south/southwesterly and isentropic lift is developing around the 295K/300K surfaces. A few showers are beginning to develop this afternoon and are expected to increase as the southerly flow above the front (and therefore the isentropic lift) increases this tonight. Most models (the NAM being the exception) show very little elevated instability, so severe weather is not expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Rain chances decrease early Wednesday as the isentropic lift decreases. But then shower/storm chances will increase Wednesday evening and especially Thursday as a mid-level trough approaches. Rainfall looks to be widespread on Thursday with this system. We will still be in this cooler post-frontal airmass, so no surface instability is expected and severe weather potential is low. Precipitation chances will decrease from west to east Thursday night as the trough moves to the east. High temperatures will be cool both Wednesday and Thursday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A subtropical jet, with perturbations within the broader mid-level flow, will overspread the southern Plains through next weekend. This continuous mid-level flow will support daily thunderstorm chances through the weekend across our area. At this time, there is low confidence in severe weather during this timeframe. Temperatures will continue to be closer to seasonable through early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1016 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Continues to look like widespread MVFR along with periods of IFR ceilings expected through the forecast period. There remains a good chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight into Wednesday morning before we get a break with increasing chances again tomorrow evening. Otherwise, east to northeast winds of mainly 8-12kts across all the terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 54 70 58 71 / 60 20 60 90 Hobart OK 52 73 56 73 / 50 20 80 80 Wichita Falls TX 56 76 60 76 / 60 30 80 80 Gage OK 46 70 51 69 / 0 20 80 80 Ponca City OK 52 67 55 70 / 40 10 60 80 Durant OK 62 78 65 76 / 40 30 50 90 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...30  520 FXUS66 KSEW 200348 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 848 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure aloft will begin to rebuild across Western Washington on Wednesday and remain in place into Friday for a return to some sunshine and warmer temperatures. The ridge will weaken over the upcoming holiday weekend for a cooling trend and a chance of rain by Memorial Day. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A building upper ridge on Wednesday will lead to clearing skies and warmer temperatures. The ridge remains firmly in place offshore into Thursday with low level onshore flow weakening. Interior temperatures will warm a few degrees, but coastal area temperatures will likely stay fairly static with night and morning clouds hanging around and an afternoon sea breeze. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The upper ridge axis offshore begins to weaken on Friday with low level onshore flow picking up a notch late in the day. Interior temperatures should be similar to those of Thursday...upper 60s to mid 70s...while coastal areas remain mostly in the lower 60s. The ridge is expected to flatten by Saturday for slightly cooler temperatures to begin the weekend. The weekend looks like a tale of two halves. Ensemble height anomalies agree that a deepening upper trough over the Northeast Pacific will begin a transition toward cooler temperatures and possible precipitation, but the speed of transition is up for debate. In general, the Euro and Canadian suite of solutions are more agressive with the troughs arrival while the GFS is less so. Sunday should feature additional cooling and cloud cover with precip chances increasing areawide Sunday night into Memorial Day. 27 && .AVIATION... Upper ridging offshore will continue to lead to N/NW flow aloft over western Washington for the entire TAF period. Some differences in surface flow...while the majority of terminals are seeing westerly to northwesterly winds, PWT is favoring an easterly direction while BLI is more southerly. Speeds ranging 4-8 kts although HQM is running closer to 8-12 kts this evening. A universal transition to north to northwesterly winds expected by 06Z tonight and remaining that way into late Wednesday morning with speeds generally 5 kts or less. Most terminals expected to remain northerly, with some variations to the NE or NW, but will see speeds increase to range mostly 5-10 kts. VFR conditions hold court over the eastern half of the CWA while MVFR cigs in place from CLM and points west. Low clouds expected to push westward through the night with widespread MVFR expected by 12Z Wednesday morning /IFR for terminals more prone to lower cigs/. Lifting looks to kick in during the 18-20Z time frame with widespread VFR conditions returning. The strengthening ridge will make life difficult for any low-level clouds, scattering out the lower altitudes leaving only SCT to BKN high clouds by Wednesday evening. KSEA...VFR conditions this evening into tonight with W to NW winds 4 to 8 knots, becoming more northerly after 06Z. Mid to high level clouds before MVFR conditions return late tonight and lasting throughout Wednesday morning. VFR conditions returning around 18z- 20z. 18/Mazurkiewicz && .MARINE... Surface high pressure offshore will continue onshore flow throughout the area waters through majority of the week. A small craft advisory remains in effect for all outer coastal water zones, mainly for elevated seas. Can expect another westerly push down the Strait of Juan De Fuca tonight, where a small craft advisory is also in effect. Diurnally driven pushes down the Strait expected through the end of the week. A system on Friday and Saturday could bring a round of elevated seas and winds to thecoastal waters. Coastal seas 6 to 8 feet this evening will increase to 8 to 10 feet tonight into Wednesday. Seas will then level to 7 to 9 feet throughout Thursday, before rising above 10 feet Friday and into the weekend. Mazurkiewicz/18 && .HYDROLOGY... The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated during this time as needed. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$  583 FXUS63 KEAX 200350 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1050 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...Updated 06z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of flooding along rivers and low lying areas continue. Many rivers should recede back below flood stage by the end of the week*. *Dependent on precipitation forecasts. - A cooler quieter pattern sets in for the next couple days. Warmer temperatures and precipitation chances return Thursday night into Friday (40% to 80%) with intermittent precipitation chances continuing through the weekend (20% to 30%). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Overcast skies and drizzle dominate Tuesday across the region. A saturated low layer leftover from Monday night's storms and a notable inversion aloft keep misty conditions around until incremental bits of solar heating eventually make their way toward the surface heating up the air just enough to dissipate fog and mist later this afternoon. The compression under the inversion also keeps north winds fairly gusty around 15-25 MPH. Cooler and slightly quieter conditions are expected for the next few days. High pressure builds in from interior Canada lowering temperatures from above normal to below normal. High temperatures in the upper 60s greatly contrast the 90s of last week. The upper level pattern continues to be punctuated by two stout yet relatively stationary systems. One, the Bermuda high off the SE CONUS coast and the second a deep, but sedentary trough near Baja California. These two features have been the primary influences on our weather pattern over the past several days, and tabbing through the extended forecast, that influence does not look to wane until the weekend. The Bermuda high's influence has weakened a bit which allowed the synoptic cold front to pass through last night bring the strong to severe and heavy rainfall. The trough across the SW CONUS remains stout ejecting shortwaves into the flow and keeping things slowly progressive. A more active weather pattern is expected to start later this week as a trough dips out of the northern Rockies Thursday. This tight pocket of CVA combined with a shortwave ejected from the stationary low in the SW CONUS brings the potential for shower development Thursday morning (40-60%). Further shortwave ejections spur the development of a lee trough which looks to bring increased opportunities (70-80%) for showers and thunderstorms late Thursday into Friday morning. This perturbation of the overall flow then facilitates the breakdown of the stationary SW CONUS trough mentioned earlier which proceeds to move it through the atmospheric current. Early projections show this cyclone remaining south of the area through the weekend as another complimentary wave across the northern CONUS prevents northward movement of the southern system. This does present some 20-30% probabilities for precipitation across the region through the weekend. Extended guidance points toward a more active pattern resuming across the continent after the holiday weekend as unblocked flow enables severals atmospheric waves to transit the region. Long range models show several opportunities for systems to pass by our area bringing opportunities for showers and thunderstorms to the edges of the region. The biggest concern with any additional rainfall is aggravation of the current flooding being seen in area creeks and streams. Fortunately, this midweek break should allow some of the swollen creeks and streams to recede back toward normal levels just before the next rounds of rain on Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1048 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 High pressure continues to settle into the region and has help improved the MVFR ceilings to VFR across most of the area. Area of drizzle has pushed into southern Missouri. Winds will gradually veer from northerly to northeasterly during the overnight hours. VFR ceilings will scatter out by late morning. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Pesel AVIATION...Krull  563 FXUS63 KLSX 200350 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1050 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Today's cold front will bring in cooler and drier weather for the next few days. - Rain chances increase again late this week into this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Wednesday Night) Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front is slowly pushing southeast through the region this afternoon. While a humid airmass still exists ahead of the front, extensive cloud cover and light rain streaming across the area as blow off from convection over Arkansas has really put a damper on solar heating, reducing the chances for additional thunderstorm development on the front as it moves through our area this afternoon. Most of us will just see clouds and light rain with perhaps a stray rumble of thunder through the evening. Better chances of thunderstorm development will be focused closer to the Ohio River Valley. As the front moves through, winds will shift to the northwest and our temperature and dewpoint drop into the 50s. This will be a noticeable change from our early season warm and humid air mass we've felt for the last few days. Extensive low level cloud cover behind the front lasts at least through the night tonight, ensuring we only bottom out in the 50s for most due to the cold advection and lack of additional radiational cooling. If thick clouds linger through the day tomorrow, then highs will struggle to make it out of the 50s, but if we get more sun we could make a run at 70. Current NBM forecast is on the higher end and represents expectations if clouds break up a bit more, while the MAV and MET both suggest more widespread upper 50s to low 60s, below the 10th percentile of NBM guidance. Kimble && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Tuesday) Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The mid level flow pattern across the continent will increasingly feature some variation of troughing in the West and ridging over the Southeast US coast. This puts our area in southwesterly mid level flow steering subtle disturbances through the center of the country. At the surface, strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes will maintain its influence locally, with easterly low level winds and warm sector heat and humidity staying largely south of our region. Thus while we see rain chances increasing late Thursday into Friday and continuing on and off through the weekend, this will by in large be showers and elevated thunderstorms with a minimal severe weather risk considering the lack of access locally to the richer low level moisture flowing off the Gulf. Greater confidence is with the Thursday-Friday time frame as an initial trough moves northeast through the flow. After that, guidance varies more considerably on how to handle the remaining trough with some maintaining a more robust cut off low over the Southern Plains which keeps us in the line of fire for additional disturbances through the weekend while others transition towards northwest flow. Latest NBM continues rain chances through this weekend which is warranted, but our confidence is lower on the timing and location of these rounds of rain. Regarding temperatures, NBM continues to occupy the top spot among all of guidance for maximum temperatures this weekend. Its spring bias correction is dominating the physical forecast. For high temperatures, modeled temperatures aloft are a first stop for any forecast. This weekend among the long range ensemble guidance there's fairly good agreement that 925MB temperatures will be in the 16-18C Friday through Sunday with an IQR of only 2 to 3C. Assuming strong mixing to the surface, which can be expected on a sunny May day, high temperatures would top out in the low to mid 70s. But strong mixing isn't a given. As noted in the prior paragraph, subtle disturbances in the southwesterly flow may bring additional rounds of clouds and showers this weekend, and if that occurs we would not expect full mixing. So while the official forecast has temperatures drifting well into the 80s for the holiday weekend, we have low confidence in this and strong reason to suspect below normal temperatures continuing. Kimble && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night) Issued at 1043 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR ceilings are locked in across sections of southeast Missouri through southern and west-central Illinois late this evening. Fortunately, drier air has eaten into the northwest periphery of the lower ceiling with quicker improvement over sections of central Missouri through northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois. MVFR is likely to hold over the metro terminals through much of Wednesday as the front linger to the south and low pressure pivots into the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, dry air will slowly erode MVFR ceilings through Wednesday with all site improving to VFR through the end of the 24 hour period. While a few showers could pop up overnight, direct impacts to terminals would be minor, if affected. Chances are low enough that they were not included in prevailing groups at the time. Maples && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  599 FXUS64 KMEG 200351 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1051 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1051 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through tonight and into Wednesday morning. - Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist each day into the upcoming Memorial Day weekend. - Past Tuesday, temperatures will be near normal with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the 60s. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1051 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A broad jet streak remains over the central Plains, extending east into the Great Lakes region with a weaker belt of southwesterlies over the Mid-South. Showers and thunderstorms pushed a front into the region this afternoon from the northwest, which continues to produce showers and thunderstorms as of 03z. Mesoanalysis shows ~1000 J/kg MUCAPE, which should support continued thunderstorm development along the boundary through the night. The complex is expected to continue east, posing only a marginal damaging wind threat and localized flooding. Recent HRRR/RAP runs redevelop storms across the Mississippi River Delta after 06z along an area of 925mb - 850mb convergence or weak frontogenesis. However, this convection is expected to remain sub- severe considering weak to non-existent effective shear and a decrease in MUCAPE to at or below 500 J/kg. Showers will remain across the region into Wednesday morning as the front stalls due to upper height rises with a steady decrease in convective coverage through the morning. Clouds and remnant showers will lead to lower high temperatures in the 70s and low 80s. Although the temperatures will decrease, the front's inability to meaningfully clear the region will allow for moisture to remain. Therefore, dewpoints will remain in the upper 60s to low 70s, leading to very muggy, humid conditions. The upper profile will also follow the same picture with moist- adiabatic temperature profiles and 1.8" - 2.0" PWATs throughout the region, producing enough MUCAPE and/or MLCAPE for additional convective development through the afternoon hours. Height rises and very low shear will keep the severe threat at bay, but scattered heavy downpours are expected. This pattern looks likely to persist as ensembles have converged on the ridge axis nudging east of the region, allowing for multiple, weak shortwaves to propagate into the region through the end of the week. The air mass will remain very moist with 90%+ percentile PWATs residing through the area, bringing daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, and also keeping temperatures in the 70s and low 80s. Coverage will be dependent on the upper forcing available, which appears to be maximized Friday as a more notable shortwave passes over the region. Enough effective shear and MLCAPE will overlap to produce the potential for a low-end severe damaging wind threat. This feature will pass Saturday, likely leading to somewhat of a decrease in convective coverage, but rainfall is still expected across the region through Sunday. Through Sunday, an area of 50 kt mid-level flow will eject from northwestern Mexico and travel northeast towards the Mid-South, amplifying into a closed upper low. The eastern side of the upper low will contain a region of 40+ kt southerlies that will overspread the region. Although models have struggled with run-to- run consistency regarding this feature, there is growing confidence in an enhanced low-level response within a very moist air mass. If a broad warm sector can maintain its instability into the afternoon, another marginal threat for damaging wind gusts could materialize. However, closed upper lows are very often subject to large model variability and changes to this forecast are expected in the coming days, but current trends have pointed towards this solution. Model variability regarding the evolution of the upper low only grows through the end of the period Tuesday, but the background synoptic pattern will largely remain the same with a ridge centered over the southern Atlantic coastline and broad troughing over the western CONUS. Therefore, rainy and unsettled weather still seems on the table next Tuesday that could last beyond the forecast period into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A tricky TAF set remains in this issuance, ahead of a cold front and surface low. These features will bring off and on -TSRA and - SHRA over the next 30 hours. CAMs tend to struggle with this summertime-like pattern, especially with thunderstorms, therefore PROB30 seemed to be the best way to handle the situation. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the early evening hours before the surface low tracks in MVFR and intermittent IFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds will be light and variable through the late morning hours before shifting north/northeast behind the aforementioned cold front. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1051 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future, with minimum relative humidity values remaining above 40%. Expect showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through Memorial Day Weekend. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...AEH  653 FXUS63 KAPX 200353 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1153 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler temps continue to filter into N MI this evening and overnight scattered showers end this evening. - Much cooler Wednesday, with the potential for a widespread frost/freeze Wednesday night. - Steady warming trend late week into the weekend, watching potential for rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Cold front to bring sharply colder temperatures this evening and tonight consequent of upper low moving across Ontario. Additionally, scattered showers from this afternoon will largely end by 7-8PM. Expect a cooler night tonight, with some 30s and 40s across northern lower and eastern upper MI. Winds will remain elevated through the night, and a little breezy at times. Upper low continues to sweep eastward across Ontario on Wednesday, with sfc high pressure building in across Minnesota and Wisconsin, nudging eastward. Expect cool conditions through the day on Wednesday, with high temps between 50 to 60 degrees for most. High temps a full 15 degrees below average for some. High pressure continues to move eastward, settling just to our northwest/north Wednesday night. With winds progged to decouple, most locations have a good chance for either a front or freeze event. Given this could cause decent impacts to vegetation and crops, went with a freeze watch for the area. Mixed in MAV guidance to nudge low temps colder. Next time period of relative mild concern will be the later Friday into Saturday time frame. Low pressure and warm advection lifts northward, with the potential for rain across the region. This will all depend on how subtle energy across the central portions of the country is handled which will impact low pressure location. Combining GEFS, EPS, and GEPS together yields a high chance for >0.1" of rain and a low to medium chance for 0.5". Thus, could be a wetting rain for some, although the highest potential is shaded farther downstate and especially near DTX. Stay tuned for additional details. Heights will continue to rise through the weekend and into early next week, meaning the warming trend is progged to continue. Looks pretty warm early next week if the pattern holds true. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1151 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Some pockets of lingering sub-VFR CIGs over the next several hours for parts of northern MI, but a return to VFR expected area-wide by daybreak this morning. Occasionally breezy northwest winds through Wednesday before winds turn light/variable tonight. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345>348. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321-322. && $$ DISCUSSION...JLD AVIATION...MJG  609 FXUS63 KSGF 200351 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1051 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue to slowly move through the area this afternoon. Additional scattered showers/storms possible overnight. No severe weather expected. - Residual flooding from previous heavy rains will continue. Additional rainfall amounts up to one inch is possible south of Interstate 44. - Cooler into mid week, with additional rain chances (60-90%) on Thursday and Friday. There is a slight risk for excessive rainfall/localized flooding Thursday night through Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows an upper level trough/jet streak over the Rockies with another more compact shortwave working through the area. An 850mb front was located from central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. The surface cold front was currently located just west of Springfield with temps in the 50s to around 60 behind it with lower to middle 60s ahead of the front. The airmass was becoming increasingly stable over the area with MU CAPE now less than 1000j/kg. However there was a corridor of slightly higher MU CAPE centered more along the 850mb front. The widespread area of showers and storms has now shifted to the areas east of Highway 65. Residual flooding continues across locations north of Springfield where heavy rainfall occurred. Rain Chances Through Wednesday and cooler temps: The afternoon batch of showers and isolated storms will continue to move east/southeast with a brief break/lull this evening. However, overnight (mainly after midnight) there is an increasing signal that light showers or perhaps an isolated storm will develop over the area along the corridor of the 850mb front. A low level jet and continued placement of the right entrance region of the upper level jet will also aid in the development of this scattered activity. Severe weather is not expected and rainfall amounts will likely remain light enough to limit any renewed flooding. Temperatures should slowly decrease into the 50s. Weak mid level ridging should allow for a decreasing trend in precip chances through the day. Northeast winds and mostly cloudy conditions should keep temps cool with most locations staying in the 60s. There could even be a few locations north of Springfield that struggle to even reach 60. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Additional Rain Chances Late Week and Weekend: Ensemble data shows a rather unsettled pattern Thursday onward. From a synoptic perspective, the pattern favors shortwave energy moving through the area every few days given the southwest flow aloft. One such wave looks to move into the area late Thursday into Friday. Precip chances have increased into the 60-80% range as a shield of showers and storms looks to move through the area from the southwest. Looking at instability, latest ensemble probs for CAPE greater than 500j/kg is highest on Friday. Latest probs for precip greater than 0.5in is around 60%. Therefore we will need to monitor the location of the heaviest rainfall. The WPC has highlighted portions of the area in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Additional shortwaves look to rotate through the area this weekend. Confidence is low on exact timing of each wave and subsequent hazards however rain chances are in the 30-50% range at times this weekend. A gradual warming trend should occur this weekend with the potential for highs to reach the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1048 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Light drizzle/fog and IFR to LIFR ceilings are ongoing. Through the night, showers that have already started to develop will increase in coverage, including a low potential for lightning. Outside of showers, expect light drizzle/fog to continue. Ceilings are expected to gradually lift on Wednesday, improving to MVFR by late morning or early afternoon. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Titus  640 FXUS64 KOHX 200352 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1052 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 958 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Medium to high rain chances continue each day through the forecast period. - Rainfall totals of 2+ inches through the weekend, with some localized high amounts possible. Some minor flooding concerns. - Temperatures near seasonal norms through the next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 958 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front will continue to slowly sag SE across Middle TN on Wednesday. This will maintain high rain and storm chances across the area, with the best coverage and intensity expected during the afternoon and evening as diurnal heating combines with ample low- level moisture (PWATs remain near or above 1.5 inches). While instability will be modest behind the initial front passage, shear is weak and any training or slow-moving storms could produce locally heavy rainfall. Highest probs for showers and storms will shift south of I-40 on Thursday as the front stalls across northern MS/AL. Scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorms will remain likely, especially south of I-40. Rain totals through Thursday night could add another 0.5 to 1.5 inches for many locations, contributing to the broader wet pattern. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler than recent days, with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s. No significant severe weather is expected during this time, though brief gusty winds and small hail are possible with the stronger storms. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 958 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The stalled frontal boundary to our south, combined with an upper-level troughing pattern across the eastern CONUS, will keep and active weather pattern in place through early next week. Multiple shortwave disturbances riding along the front will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon and evenings. Rain chances remain medium to high each day. Forecast rainfall through the weekend and into early next week continue to support high probabilities for at least 2 inches across much of Middle TN. Some areas could see 3+ inches, especially if training storms develop. This will bring some drought relief. On the flip side, there will be some concern for minor flash flooding in urban and poor drainage areas. Temperatures will remain near normal, with daytime highs in the upper 70s to low/mid 80s and overnight low in the mid to upper 60s. Beyond the weekend, model agreement decreases but the overall pattern favors continued unsettled conditions with daily rain chances into mid next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Have made some adjustments to the TAF this period revolving around low confidence scattered storms over the next 24 hours. Biggest adjustments were at CKV regarding storms this evening and again tomorrow morning. Lower cats expected to settle into mid-state terminals tomorrow afternoon with MVFR first (~20-21Z) then IFR after 00z (30-hr BNA TAF, but heads up for other terminals). Winds will be light (less than 10 kts) throughout, but shift to the north tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 91 68 83 64 / 20 50 90 60 Clarksville 90 67 79 62 / 30 80 100 50 Crossville 85 64 82 61 / 30 20 80 50 Columbia 90 67 82 63 / 10 30 80 50 Cookeville 87 66 83 63 / 30 20 90 50 Jamestown 88 64 84 61 / 30 20 90 50 Lawrenceburg 87 67 82 63 / 10 20 90 50 Murfreesboro 90 68 84 63 / 10 20 80 60 Waverly 91 67 80 63 / 30 80 90 40 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cravens LONG TERM....Cravens AVIATION.....Unger  769 FXUS63 KDTX 200357 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1157 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and cool Wednesday through Friday morning. - Rain returns by Friday evening and continues into Saturday. && .AVIATION... Low level cold advection has resulted in saturation and VFR stratus this evening between 2.0 and 5.0 kft agl. Depth of the saturation may continue to be enough to result in light rain shower activity or drizzle this evening, although confidence in duration and occurrence is low. Abrupt dry air advection with midlevel isentropic downglide is then expected to push through all of the area after 09z. Shallow cold front and density discontinuity will push southward through the Detroit taf sites around 9z this morning. Boundary layer cloud will be possible with diurnal heating late morning with clearing during the evening. D21/DTW Convection...Low probability for additional thunderstorm activity this evening. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for thunderstorms this evening. * High for ceilings at or below 5000 ft tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 DISCUSSION... Pressure fields clearly show the prefrontal trough tracking through western sections of the CWA. This trough will serve as the focus for continued convection. Southwest gradient winds have been gusting 30 to 40 mph this afternoon, indicative of some decent wind fields. With temperatures reaching the mid-80s and dew points in the mid-to- upper 60s, MLCAPEs have reached 1500+ J/kg south of M-59. Per latest SPC mesoscale analysis and DTW ACARS data, the CIN/cap has eroded completely. Thus, further shower and thunderstorm development is expected through the rest of the afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for the eastern two-thirds of the CWA until 7 PM, but there is a good chance it may be canceled earlier. Localized/scattered damaging wind gusts should be the dominant hazard, given the mainly unidirectional low-level flow and good downdraft capes. However, because of the earlier start to activity and weak convergence along the prefrontal trough, it may be tough to sustain updrafts to support organized severe storms (barring any interactions with outflow boundaries). The actual cold front still needs to move through during the evening hours, and additional storms will be possible with any leftover instability. However, expect this prefrontal activity to deplete much of the fuel for the main front. Upper-level confluent flow and sprawling high pressure (1032 MB) will be in place tomorrow through Friday morning over the Great Lakes region, supporting dry and cool weather. Rain showers will return by Friday evening, however. Longwave troughing over the Rockies will capture and send a subtropical shortwave and moisture-laden warm front into southern Lower Michigan by Friday night. 850 MB dew points are progged to reach into the lower teens (Celsius) on Saturday. EPS probabilities for 24-hour rainfall exceeding half an inch are in the 60-70 percent range for the bulk of southeast Michigan. MARINE... Small Craft Advisories remain in place into this evening as southwest winds gust around 25 knots along the land/marine interface. The development of strong to severe thunderstorms is increasingly likely this afternoon into the evening, favored across southern Lake Huron and locations south. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect until 7PM EDT. Wind gusts aoa 45 knots will be the primary hazard for severe weather development. Passage of the cold front will end the severe weather threat, veering winds from the southwest to northwest through the evening. High pressure builds behind the front, bringing lighter winds through the midweek period. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....CB DISCUSSION...SF MARINE.......SF You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  807 FXUS63 KAPX 200357 CCA AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1157 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler temps continue to filter into N MI this evening and overnight scattered showers end this evening. - Much cooler Wednesday, with the potential for a widespread frost/freeze Wednesday night. - Steady warming trend late week into the weekend, watching potential for rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Cold front to bring sharply colder temperatures this evening and tonight consequent of upper low moving across Ontario. Additionally, scattered showers from this afternoon will largely end by 7-8PM. Expect a cooler night tonight, with some 30s and 40s across northern lower and eastern upper MI. Winds will remain elevated through the night, and a little breezy at times. Upper low continues to sweep eastward across Ontario on Wednesday, with sfc high pressure building in across Minnesota and Wisconsin, nudging eastward. Expect cool conditions through the day on Wednesday, with high temps between 50 to 60 degrees for most. High temps a full 15 degrees below average for some. High pressure continues to move eastward, settling just to our northwest/north Wednesday night. With winds progged to decouple, most locations have a good chance for either a front or freeze event. Given this could cause decent impacts to vegetation and crops, went with a freeze watch for the area. Mixed in MAV guidance to nudge low temps colder. Next time period of relative mild concern will be the later Friday into Saturday time frame. Low pressure and warm advection lifts northward, with the potential for rain across the region. This will all depend on how subtle energy across the central portions of the country is handled which will impact low pressure location. Combining GEFS, EPS, and GEPS together yields a high chance for >0.1" of rain and a low to medium chance for 0.5". Thus, could be a wetting rain for some, although the highest potential is shaded farther downstate and especially near DTX. Stay tuned for additional details. Heights will continue to rise through the weekend and into early next week, meaning the warming trend is progged to continue. Looks pretty warm early next week if the pattern holds true. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1151 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Some pockets of lingering sub-VFR CIGs over the next several hours for parts of northern MI, but a return to VFR expected area-wide by daybreak this morning. Occasionally breezy northwest winds through Wednesday before winds turn light/variable tonight. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345>348. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321-322. && $$ DISCUSSION...JLD AVIATION...MJG  844 FXUS66 KLOX 200359 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 859 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS...19/852 PM. Light offshore flow will continue through Wednesday leading to clear skies and warm temperatures. Beginning Thursday there will be a return to cooler May Grey conditions which will last through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...19/850 PM. ***UPDATE*** Weak offshore flow teamed up with totally sunny skies today to bring a 5 to 10 degree warm up to almost all of the forecast area today. Unfortunately the warm temps and light offshore flow also brought low humidities and some canyon winds which combined to produce a hazardous fire weather environment which did not help the fire fighters. Current forecast looks good with a return of onshore flow by late morning Wednesday which will bring 3 to 5 degrees of cooling to the csts/vlys with up to 10 degrees across the SBA south coast due to the lack of north flow. The interior will continue to warm tomorrow by about 6 degrees. ***From Previous Discussion*** Very little change to the previous forecasts through the rest of this week. Temperatures will peak Wednesday, generally 1-3 degrees warmer than today, except around 5 degrees warmer in the Antelope Valley. Light offshore flow will start the day but will turn onshore by afternoon or sooner at the coast. Warmer valleys will reach the lower 90s while areas towards the coast will be in the 70s and 80s. These are roughly 5-10 degrees above normal. While the upper level pattern remains more or less the same through the rest of the week, the primary change will be the reversal from offshore to onshore flow beginning Thursday which will bring temperatures back down to near normal levels by the weekend. This will also coincide with a return of the marine layer, as early as Thursday in some areas but possibly not til Friday or Saturday for the valleys. One exception to this may be southwest Santa Barbara County where a 2-4mb offshore gradient during the overnight hours will likely create nightly Sundowners with winds gusting between 25 and 40 mph at times, particularly Wednesday and Thursday nights. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...19/209 PM. The rest of the 7 day forecast into early next week is very benign as the baggy trough will persist with moderate to strong onshore flow through the period. This is likely to maintain temperatures near to slightly below normal temperatures with a steady dose of night and morning low clouds and fog covering most coast and valley areas. And once again there is the possible exception across southwestern Santa Barbara County where offshore flow returns Monday night with gusty north winds at times. && .AVIATION...20/0032Z. At 1616Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 700 ft deep, with an inversion up to 1600 ft with a temperature of 23 C. High confidence in CAVU TAFs. There is a 20% chance of 6SM FU at KVNY due to Sandy Fire from 02Z-06Z Wednesday. KLAX...High confidence in the 00Z TAF. VFR conditions are expected. However, there is a 20% chance of MVFR VSBYs in HZ 11Z-16Z Wednesday. There is a 15% chance of east wind component reaching 7-8 kts from 12Z-16Z Wednesday. KBUR...High confidence in the 00Z TAF. No wind issues expected. && .MARINE...19/755 PM. High confidence in current forecast. Through this weekend, winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels, with a few exceptions of local SCA level gusts during the afternoons and evenings. Across the outer waters south of Port San Luis, local gusts to SCA levels will be possible each afternoon/evening through Friday, and again on Sunday. For the inner waters along the Central Coast south of Port San Luis, off the coast of Point Dume, across the San Pedro Channel, and in the Santa Barbara Channel, local gusts to SCA levels will be possible on Wednesday afternoon through early evening. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Rorke AVIATION...Ciliberti MARINE...Lund SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox