510 FXUS61 KAKQ 200207 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1007 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated the aviation section for the 00z TAFs Lowered high temperatures slightly on Thursday and Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot and dry conditions continue through much of the day tomorrow. A strong cold front will bring the potential for strong to severe storms to northern portions of the area later tomorrow evening into tomorrow night. 2) Cooler and more unsettled conditions Thursday and especially Friday in the wake of the front. Cool and unsettled conditions may continue through much of the Holiday Weekend as the front lingers near the area. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and dry conditions continue through much of the day tomorrow. A strong cold front will bring the potential for strong to severe storms to northern portions of the area later tomorrow evening into tomorrow night. High pressure remains centered well offshore leading to continued warm S-SW flow across the area this afternoon. Temperatures have climbed into the low-mid 90s for most locations away from the immediate coast. Near-record highs are possible this afternoon, with the best chance for a record high at Richmond. Remaining mild tonight with lows ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Similar conditions are expected on Wednesday as compressional heating maximizes ahead of an approaching cold front. Strong mixing and ongoing drought conditions will continue to allow early morning dewpoints to mix out by afternoon, falling back into the upper 50s to low 60s. Highs on Wednesday will again range from the mid to upper 90s inland to the lower 90s closer to the coast. By Wednesday afternoon, a cold front will approach the area and showers and storms are expected to develop, focusing along the pre- frontal trough to our northwest. Model trends continue to slow the arrival of the cold front, lagging into later Wednesday evening across the north, and Thursday morning south of US-460 into NE NC. 12z CAMs continue to show sparse convection only reaching northern and western portions of the area, likely staying out of the RIC metro through much of Wednesday evening. SPC has maintained a Day 2 Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for the northern half of the forecast area with the afternoon update. The risk of severe storms still looks marginal locally, with the better instability and forcing located to our N/NW. Still think there is a decent potential storms may begin to dissipate by the time they reach the local area. Still, a few stronger to severe storms remain possible, especially for areas north of Richmond and over to the Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat with any stronger storms, though an isolated instance of large hail cannot be ruled out. KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler and more unsettled conditions Thursday and especially Friday in the wake of the front. Cool and unsettled conditions may continue through much of the Holiday Weekend as the front lingers near the area. A shortwave trough is progged to lift across the upper Midwest into eastern Canada late Wednesday into Thursday. This will serve to dampen the SE ridge, while allowing cool high pressure to settle over the Great Lakes and SE Canada. Meanwhile, the cold front pushes south of the area Thursday. The cold front then settles south of the area and stalls over the Carolinas on Friday. Increasing overrunning moisture and quickly rising PW values allow rain chances to ramp up quickly late Thursday and Thursday night, leaving an emerging cool air/CAD wedge setup for Friday, with highs in the 60s to 70s forecast. Still some uncertainty with respect to the cool air/CAD wedge setup as we head into the weekend. There are some indications that the airmass may linger through much of Saturday (and potentially Sunday) before a warm front slowly lifts over the area and the CAD airmass erodes. The front then likely gets hung up over northern portions of the area and lingers into early next week. This will lead to the potential for continued unsettled conditions throughout the holiday weekend and cooler temperatures than currently in the forecast for both Saturday and Sunday. Gradual warming is expected heading into early next week as mid-level ridging rebuilds east of the Rockies. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 740 PM EDT Tuesday VFR conditions prevail for the 00z/20 TAF period. Clear or mostly clear skies are forecast for the bulk of the period, then clouds increase from the NW late tomorrow as a cold front approaches the region. There's a low-end chance for showers/storms to impact RIC/SBY by the end of the period, but the front has slowed down and most precip is not expected until after 00z/21. SW winds around 10kt forecast through the period, gusting up to 20kt at times. Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible starting Wednesday night as a cold front brings showers and storms to the local area. An unsettled pattern will likely bring additional restrictions through the end of the week and into the weekend. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Mainly sub-SCA conditions are expected across the local waters through Wednesday with primarily S-SW winds. - A front crosses the waters Thursday morning, bringing the next chance at SCA conditions from Thursday through Friday due to NE winds of 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. High pressure will remain anchored near Bermuda through Wednesday, while a cold front slowly approaches from the north (but the front will remain north of the waters through Wednesday evening). Current marine wind obs indicate S-SW winds of 10-15 kt. Winds will increase to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt on the bay this evening-early tonight (and 15-20 kt w/ 25 kt gusts on the ocean). Winds diminish back to 10-15 kt by late tonight, and remain in that range through Wed with the stagnant pattern. Will likely see a few 20 kt gusts on the bay late Wed aftn-Wed evening. This pattern will finally start to break down as a cold front approaches the area late Wednesday into Wednesday night. This cold front is currently forecast to cross the waters some time early Thursday morning with increasing NE winds behind it. NE winds will average 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt from Thursday through Friday. SCAs appear likely for portions of the bay (due to winds) and coastal waters N of the VA-NC border (due to seas building to 5-6 ft behind the front). Local wind probabilities show a relatively high (60-90%) chance of sustained 18 kt winds on the middle/lower bay from Thu-Fri. Winds diminish and become more variable this weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes some. While the GFS still has 10-20 kt NE winds over the weekend, it is an outlier at this time. There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches (including Ocean City, MD) through Wednesday, with a low risk elsewhere. With increasing winds and seas associated with a frontal passage on Thursday, all beaches will see a moderate rip current risk. && .CLIMATE... As of 950 PM EDT Tuesday... Tue 5/19: Richmond tied a record high min (71), and SBY also tied the record high min (70). No record high highs were set or tied. Another day of near- record to record- breaking heat is expected Wed 5/20, both for record highs and record high minimum temperatures. Record High Temps for Wed 5/20: Record High/Year Location 5/20-------- ---- Richmond 97 (2022) Norfolk 98 (1996) Salisbury 98 (1911) Eliz. City 98 (1996) Record High Min Temps for Wed 5/20: Record High Min T/Year Location 5/20 -------- ---- Richmond 71 (2018) Norfolk 73 (1996) Salisbury 70 (2018) Eliz. City 73 (2018) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJB/MAM AVIATION...AC MARINE...ERI CLIMATE...LKB/MAM  914 FXUS62 KKEY 200211 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1011 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and humid conditions over the next few days will lead to a generally moderate risk of heat illness with periods of high risk conditions. - High confidence that rain and thunder chances to gradually decrease starting tomorrow. - Breezes on track to gradually decrease to gentle to moderate during the second half of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1010 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Conditions across the Florida Keys continue to be warm and muggy. Dew points are lingering in the lower to mid 70s with temperatures struggling to drop into the lower 80s. KBYX radar observations this evening are tracking shallow, fast moving showers across the Florida Keys waters. GOES East satellite observations indicate most of the clouds tonight are high altitude cirrus clouds generated by thunderstorms near Tampa. That observation is further corroborated by the 00Z KKEY radiosonde. The balloon highlighted a higher moisture concentration near 35,000 feet amidst 50 knot winds. The rest of the sounding was not as interesting. Winds were nearly uniform from the surface to about 10,000 feet. Sampled PWAT also rose above the 90th percentile value for the day. Overall, the weather pattern tonight does not suggest many necessary changes to the forecast. There is an interesting feature near the Florida Keys, a mid- latitude cutoff low located north of the Bahamas. Winds circulating around this feature are responsible for the river of cirrus aloft. On satellite, the cirrus gives the appearance of a moist upper atmosphere, but the KKEY sounding suggests otherwise. Dry air aloft continues to stream towards the Keys, as seen in the 500-250 mb layer. These features are likely why showers have been struggling to develop into thunderstorms. In addition, the cutoff low is playing a role in mitigating the ridging across the southeastern US. Breezes slackened earlier this evening as the pressure gradient across the Atlantic weakened. On the plus side, winds are once again below Small Craft Should Exercise Caution thresholds. On the negative side, slackening breezes mean less relief from the heat and humidity. The message to take here is to brace for summer like conditions during the rest of the week. && .MARINE... Issued at 1010 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida Keys nearshore and offshore waters. From synopsis, surface high pressure centered north of Bermuda will continue to support gentle to moderate breezes across the Florida Keys waters. Breezes are on track to slowly decrease during the week with peaks expected during the evenings and lulls during the day. Rain and thunder chances will remain above normal through much of the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1010 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH for the upcoming period. Near surface winds are on track to slowly decrease after sunrise with medium confidence gusts will drop out late. Shallow showers are still able to form near the terminals, but models do not suggest enough confidence to include VCSH in the TAFs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 80 90 81 91 / 30 30 30 20 Marathon 79 86 80 87 / 40 30 30 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest  238 FXUS63 KFGF 200250 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 950 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freeze Warning for all areas tonight except west central Minnesota (Frost Advisory) with temperatures widely falling to the low 30s and upper 20s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Some guidance is beginning to hint at fog potential along the the eastern edge of the valley tonight once winds go calm with soundings ranging from a 3-5 degree dewpoint spread to a full on low level inversion and ground fog. Unsure whether clear skies prevail with the calm winds or if patchy ground fog develops but even with a worst case scenario would expect isolated pockets as low as a 1/4 to 1/2 mile with more widespread 1-2 mile vis from Fergus Falls north to Hallock and Crookston. Would say that is about a 30% chance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...Synopsis... Upper trough axis currently over the Red River Valley will pull east into the western Great Lakes tonight. The high pressure centered over the western Plains currently will shift into the upper midwest tonight. Another trough will be digging into the Rockies tomorrow night into Thursday, so westerly flow will quickly shift back to southwesterly. The upper trough to our west splits into a northern and southern branch, and ensemble members vary a bit on how exactly they handle it as it moves east. Most solutions do push the trough east over the weekend, with ridging building into the Plains by Memorial Day. Details such as precipitation timing and placement with the trough are low confidence, but there seems to be good agreement on below average temperatures becoming near to above average by the end of the period. ...Frost and freeze headlines... Clouds should clear out as the upper trough moves east, and with high pressure overhead, winds will become light and variable overnight. There will be a good setup for radiational cooling, and dew points currently in the low 30s over southern Manitoba should be down in our area by tonight. Temps should drop to near or below the freezing mark in most locations, with a 60 to 90 percent chance of 32 or lower for much of eastern ND into northwestern MN. Probabilities of less than 32 are much lower for some reason in west central MN from Elbow Lake up to Detroit Lakes, with chances 20 percent or less.Kept Grant, Otter Tail, and western Becker as frost advisory but have the rest of the CWA in a Freeze Warning. && .AVIATION /03Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 All sites are VFR now with winds becoming light and flipping to a more southerly direction for most. Still looking at fog chances but there is still enough uncertainty to keep it out of the taf at TVF (timing would remain 08z to 13z). A couple showers potential towards the end of the period in DVL (<30% chance) with no real cig or vis impacts. Winds light for all at 5-10kts gusting to 15kts with the exception of DVL where southerly gusts to 25-30kts are likely from 18z to 04z. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ001>009- 013>017-022>024-028-029-032. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ027-030- 031-040. && $$ UPDATE...TT DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...TT  304 FXUS63 KBIS 200252 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 952 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures remain well below normal through tonight when lows could fall to near or below freezing across much of eastern and central North Dakota. - Slightly warmer Wednesday through Friday, with medium chances for showers and occasional thunderstorms beginning Wednesday evening. - Above normal temperatures favored this weekend and especially early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 940 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A little warm advection and a weak impulse along the International Border was enough to create an isolated shower in the north central this evening. Webcams showed some rain hitting the ground. Added a few hours of pops to cover this. Currently the shower is moving through Renville County and into Western Bottineau county near Lansford. Observation near Bowbells earlier indicated some IP with the cell earlier, which isn't surprising given the cold temperatures aloft. Otherwise not much going on this evening with remaining clouds dissipating. Current dewpoints are in the low to mid 30s. No changes to current frost/freeze headlines. UPDATE Issued at 548 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 No significant changes needed for the early evening update. Winds will subside over central ND. In the west, winds are beginning to shift southerly. This trend will spread east into central ND tonight. Clear to partly cloudy skies this evening with frost/freeze highlights over all of central and portions of western ND. Increasing winds and clouds later tonight in the west are expected to limit the extent of any frost, and keep temperatures above freezing, especially in the far west. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An upper level trough continues to dig across Western CONUS locking in a cooler airmass across the Plains. Surface high pressure continues to move overhead. This will help clear skies this afternoon and lead to cool overnight temperatures. High temperatures are forecast to warm into the 50s to 60s across the area. Clear skies and radiational cooling are forecast to lead to low temperatures in the upper 20s to upper 30s. There is a good shot of freeze and frost occurring tonight. A Freeze Warning has been issued for all of eastern and parts of central North Dakota while a Frost Advisory has been issued across parts for southwestern and central North Dakota. Tomorrow, temperatures are forecast to warm into the 60s and 70s. Wind will shift from northwesterly tonight to southeasterly tomorrow as surface high pressure shifts off to the southeast in Minnesota and surface low pressure moves into eastern Montana. This will lead to breezy conditions across the central and eastern half of the state by tomorrow afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to move into the northwest by the afternoon hours as an upper level wave approaches the region. An upper level low is forecast to stall out over southern Saskatchewan Thursday and Friday. Cyclonic flow aloft will usher in daily chances for showers and thunderstorms until the end of the week. There is around 70 percent chance that that portions of western and central North Dakota could see up to 0.25 of rain with locally higher amounts possible. This cooler pattern will keep temperatures in the 60s to 70s daily until warming up by the weekend. The NBM 25th percentile begins to push the upper 70s to lower 80s and the NBM 75th percentile has lower 90s. There is fairly high confidence for warm weather to start off next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 548 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the 00Z TAF period. Northwest surface flow this evening will become light then shift south to southeast by Wednesday morning. Stronger winds aloft will result in a period of LLWS at KDIK and KXWA late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Mainly mid and high clouds AOA 6KFT develop later tonight through the day Wednesday. An isolated sprinkle is possible later tonight through Wednesday morning. Low precipitation chances move into western ND Wednesday afternoon, but too much uncertainty to include a mention of showers at TAF sites ATTIM. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Wednesday for NDZ003-004-012-019-020-022-035-041-042-044- 055>062. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for NDZ005-013- 023-025-036-037-046>048-050-051. && $$ UPDATE...TWH DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...TWH