303 FXUS61 KPBZ 200000 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 800 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The forecast remains largely unchanged, with continued confidence in storm arrival in eastern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania after 8 PM tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Highest risk for severe storms/damaging wind gusts will be in areas of northwest PA/eastern OH, with diminishing risk near Pittsburgh. Conditional severe threats remain on Wednesday southeast of Pittsburgh with a departing front. 2) Strengthening signal for a wet Memorial Day Weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Mid-level capping (focused around 500mb per this morning's 12z sounding) is maintained through this afternoon and will keep ongoing isolated to scattered convective activity limited to showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two with a low severe threat. The upper ridge supporting that cap begins to break down in response to an encroaching Upper Midwest/Great Lakes shortwave, with 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE forecast to develop by this evening. A more organized severe thunderstorm threat remains possible in closer proximity to an advancing cold front that enters the area after 8pm. The most likely scenario presented by CAMS remains the development of strong to severe thunderstorms in western Ohio in the 6pm-8pm window along and ahead of the front, perhaps associated with a prefrontal trough. These storms should be weakening as they approach northwest PA/eastern OH after 9pm or so due to diurnal buoyancy loss as well as 20-25 knots of 0-6km shear fostering only loose organization/limited cold pool consolidation. Still, with up to 900 J/kg of DCAPE available north and west of Pittsburgh, strong to severe downdraft winds remain a decent possibility in the taller storms; this is the area highlighted in SPC's day 1 Slight (level 2 of 5) Risk. Hail is a lesser concern due to the lower shear and poor mid-level lapse rates less than 6C/km. Also, with around 100 m2/s2 of 0-1km storm- relative helicity available north of I-80, a tornado cannot be totally ruled out in this area as LCLs lower, although 0-3km CAPE may be a bit low. Convective intensity is expected to wane overnight as the parent cold front moves in, but some showers and storms will continue. Wednesday still presents a limited and conditional severe threat in the Laurels and in the WV ridges. This will depend on frontal timing and the amount of rain/cloud cover in the region during the morning into the afternoon. A slower front, with less precipitation and some cloud breaks out ahead, could allow sufficient destabilization for an isolated damaging wind threat. Scenarios with a faster front and more solid cloud cover could largely choke off the threat for strong convection. This will need to be monitored, and the SPC Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk southeast of Pittsburgh shows the potential threat area well. KEY MESSAGE 2... Probabilities for a soaking rain over Memorial Day Weekend continue to increase as an active pattern persists through that time. Latest guidance suggests a surface low lifts northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley to our west Friday into Saturday, bringing a warm front and widespread rain chances to the region. During that time, surface high pressure is forecast to be centered over the Upper Great Lakes and New England states. This setup is similar to past events that have generated 2+ inches of rainfall across the local area, though it should be noted that minor deviations (e.g., east-west positioning of the low or strength of the ridge) could result in the axis of heaviest rainfall shifting around (or away from) the local area. Latest NBM probabilities show a 60-80% chance for at least an inch of 24-hr rainfall accumulation Friday into Saturday, and a 20-40% chance for 2+ inches. A second wave of rain is then forecast later in the weekend, though that one appears a bit more progressive in nature and NBM probabilities reflect that with only a ~20% chance of exceeding an inch of 24-hr rainfall Sunday into Monday. Still, combined with the preceding Friday-Saturday rainfall, it is looking more possible that weekend totals approach or exceed 1-2 inches, and potentially even 3 inches (20% chance in NBM). It is still too early to discuss impacts as a lot could change over coming days, but this signal will warrant monitoring through the week. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The TAF period begins with VFR for all ports. There are some dying thunderstorms moving towards HLG at this time. These storms are expected to degrade further and may only be VCSH as they near PIT/AGC. Several dry hours follow before a line of storms currently draped from west of CLE to west of CVG moves across the region overnight. It is uncertain how much of this line will hold together and these storms have been included in PROB30 groups for most sites. Currently the threat of severe from these storms looks to be dwindling and they may just remain elevated with rain and thunder the only real impact. There could be a couple of hours of LLWS concerns at each port overnight but these look borderline and were not included in the TAFs themselves. Models are in solid agreement that CIGs begin to come down rapidly as we near sunrise and most ports will be on their way to low end MVFR by 12z with spots of IFR possible. Confidence in shower coverage and timing for tomorrow is very low at this time. Much of that activity will depend on how far east the current activity and the actual cold front makes it. The one thing that can be said with certainty at this time is that the pre-frontal trough and the actual cold front itself are moving eastward far more slowly than originally forecast. With this in mind, ports as far west as HLG could see numerous showers and thunderstorms through large portions of the midday and afternoon hours, with the longest stretch of impacts for MGW/LBE. Winds slowly veer through the day tomorrow and become largely northerly by Wednesday afternoon. Outlook... Restrictions are possible mainly south of PIT Wednesday night and Thursday as a wave of low pressure tracks along the front. Restrictions and showers return from S-N Friday into Saturday as a warm front lifts north across the area. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cermak/CL AVIATION...AK/LUPO  406 FXUS63 KJKL 200001 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 801 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and mainly dry weather will persist through this evening. - Shower and thunderstorms will become more prevalent tonight and Wednesday, with rain chances continuing through the upcoming holiday weekend. - The switch to an active and wetter pattern yields temperatures closer to normal readings, and is likely to provide at least temporary relief from developing and ongoing drought conditions. && .UPDATE... Issued at 707 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 Given ongoing convection located primarily in Whitley and Laurel counties, the main change to the forecast at this time was to increase hourly PoPs for the southwestern portion of our forecast area. Convective coverage is still expected to diminish around sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Other than that, temperatures and dewpoints were nudged and winds were adjusted to be more in line with current observations. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 400 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 One more hot and mostly sunny afternoon is underway across eastern Kentucky. Satellite imagery shows an extensive cumulus field across the area and radar shows some spotty convection near and west of the Pottsville Escarpment. Thermometers are also near record territory for this date, ranging in the mid 80s for most. The latest weather map shows the high pressure responsible for the hot and dry weather of recent days now departing off the East Coast, though still dominating over the southeast US. Meanwhile, an ~1004 mb surface low is situated northeast of Lake Superior while a cold front extends southward from the low across the Ozarks and Southern Plains. Aloft, an around 588 dam ridge remains over much of the Southeast CONUS. Upstream, a 500 hPa trough is passing through Central Canada and brushing the northern Plains while a trailing shortwave is situated over the Great Basin. Vorticity energy is streaming northeastward from the Western Gulf area and across the mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys in the southwest flow between these troughs and the Southeastern ridge. The northern stream trough will flatten and lift into eastern Canada through the short-term period along with the remnant Great Basin shortwave trailing as the ridging only slowly subsides over the Southeast CONUS. Meanwhile, the surface low will lift northeast toward Labrador while deepening ~990 mb. The low's trailing cold front will only slowly cross the Lower Ohio River late tonight and sag across eastern Kentucky during the day on Wednesday. Initially, upper level vort energy ejecting northeast from the Western Gulf coast should aid in the development of diurnally- driven scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening, primarily near and west of the Pottsville Escarpment though an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out further east. Renewed convective activity may impact locations near and north of I-64 Wednesday morning predawn as the boundary approaches our area. Ahead of this boundary, the 19/12z HREF shows 1000 to 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE building by afternoon with 20 to 30 kts of surface-500 hPa shear south of I-64 by Wednesday midday to afternoon. This may be sufficient for some cell organization, especially for convection that develops discretely or in clusters out ahead of the cold frontal boundary. SPC has included most of the area under a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Wednesday for an isolated hail or damaging wind threat. Cloud layer winds will tend to force cells that develop along the actual cold front to move back atop a more stable post-frontal environment, limiting overall extent and vigor of convection along the true surfaceboundary. While PWATs ahead of the boundary will rise to near or over 1.50 inches, progressive cell movement and dry antecedent conditions (Moderate to Extreme Drought) should preclude any notable hydro concerns outside any urban/poor drainage areas that get a quick inch or two of rain under the heaviest activity. For Wednesday night, shower activity, mainly light, is likely to linger as disturbances aloft continue to drift over the forecast area. In sensible terms, spotty shower and thunderstorm activity will continue through mid-evening, diminishing after sunset. Showers may develop again toward morning, especially near and north of I-64 and closer to central Kentucky. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the lower to middle 60s. Additional shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to spread in from the northwest on Wednesday with highs ranging in the upper 70s northwest of I-64 to the upper 80s in the deepest valleys near the KY-VA border. Showers linger Wednesday night while temperatures settle back into the lower 50s north of I-64 to the mid 60s near the KY- TN border. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 330 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 The forecast period begins with the region situated on the backside of a departing cold front. Although the boundary will be sagging southward, scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible across the area. Given marginal instability and weak kinematic profiles, severe weather is not anticipated, and activity should remain largely garden-variety. Ongoing precipitation and cloud cover will suppress daytime heating, keeping afternoon highs on the cooler side. Temperatures are forecast to reach the lower 70s across the northern portions of the area, while areas along the Tennessee border should top out in the upper 70s. Overnight lows for Thursday into Friday morning will remain mild as a quasi-stationary boundary begins to lift northward as a warm front, initiating a warming trend. This warm front will cross the region on Friday, serving as the catalyst for widespread showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. While marginal thermodynamic indices will once again favor pulse-type, non-severe convection, the primary hazard shifts toward heavy rainfall and high precipitation efficiency. This wet pattern will persist through the weekend as precipitable water values climb well above 1.50 inches within a deep moisture profile characterized by a skinny CAPE distribution. Furthermore, ECMWF Shift of Tails (SoT) values are progged to approach 0.8 on Friday before exceeding 0.8 Sunday into Monday. For context, a SoT greater than 0.8 is highly indicative of an unusual event relative to the climatological norm. As Fridays synoptic evolution locks the region into a pattern supportive of repeated training rounds of convection, this event may ultimately be classified as climatologically anomalous. An analysis of the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble systems reveals strong model consensus, with nearly all Total QPF members indicating that rainfall totals upwards of 3.00 inches are possible through Monday morning. The current deterministic forecast package projects widespread QPF amounts ranging from 2.00 inches in the Lake Cumberland area to 2.75 inches across northeastern portions of the forecast area. Locations along the West Virginia and Virginia borders will likely see lower totals due to local downsloping effects. Once the stalled boundary finally shifts eastward on Monday, another surface low is progged to develop and track northeastward into the area. This system will bring a secondary round of showers and storms, keeping the region wet through the remainder of the forecast period. As a side note, since the area is dry, heavy rainfall on top of moisture starved ground could create runoff issues leading topotential hydrologic issues. Ultimately, this period will highlight a distinct regime shift away from the persistent dry pattern observed over the last few weeks toward a much wetter synoptic setup. While the expected heavy rainfall will help reduce the current precipitation deficit, overall totals will still track below normal for this time of year. Due to persistent cloud cover and rain, daytime highs will remain capped in the upper 70s to lower 80s, while overnight lows drop into the lower to middle 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 Following current radar trends, PROB30 groups were added for KSYM and KIOB east of ongoing convection in Central KY, although this activity should generally diminish as it approaches after sunset. Between 04Z and 13Z, valley fog could bring visibility reductions to MVFR or lower, but this is not currently expected to impact TAF sites. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out overnight, but confidence remains low. Tomorrow, generally by the 15z to 18Z timeframe, convection will become more widespread as a cold front approaches. PROB30 groups were added after 15Z or 16Z to account for thunder chances at TAF sites, with MVFR to IFR or lower reductions possible in strongest cells. The strongest storms could also produce localized gusts in excess of 30 kts. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...FAGAN/JP SHORT TERM...GEERTSON LONG TERM...VORST AVIATION...FAGAN/JP  481 FXUS62 KTBW 200002 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 802 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures are expected each day through the week. - Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day, mainly in the afternoon into the evening hours. - Severe to extreme drought conditions continue for most areas. && .UPDATE... Issued at 800 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Lingering convection persists early this evening mostly across WCFL and adjacent waters and should diminish over the next few hours with mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions overnight. Radar estimates and local ob sites scattered across parts of Pinellas, northwestern Hillsborough and southwestern Pasco indicate maximum local area rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches so far today with a few locally higher totals. Sea breeze appears likely to work deeper into WCFL Wednesday afternoon as easterly flow lessens a bit, shifting the axis of highest rainfall totals east of I-75 across WCFL, extending southward into SWFL including the I-75 corridor for highest rain chances and potential amounts, again up to 2-3 inches in areas with heaviest downpours, but generally less than an inch for most otherwise. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 High pressure remains well off the southeast U.S. coast with the somewhat breezy easterly flow across the region. This should once again lead to the highest rain chances near the west coast later this afternoon and evening where the sea breeze will be pinned. Any convection will move out into the gulf later this evening and dissipate with fair dry weather overnight into early Wednesday morning. For Wednesday and Thursday the easterly flow does diminish some which should allow the west coast sea breeze to move inland, especially from around the Tampa Bay area northward where it should make it to around or east of I-75. At the same time an upper level low will be lingering off the Florida east coast lowering heights some and with enough moisture in place, precipitable water 1.4 to 1.6 inches, we'll see more scattered convection each afternoon and evening with highest chances from inland west central Florida into southwest Florida. Late in the week into early next week, upper level ridging will build over the peninsula while the surface high holds off the southeast U.S. coast. This will keep the low level east to southeast flow across the region and with enough moisture we'll continue to see scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 725 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Evening convection continues to push offshore but will linger near TPA/PIE for the initial or two of the 00Z cycle. Diminished easterly winds overnight then increasing Wednesday late morning and turning onshore at coastal terminals in the afternoon with the sea breeze, which looks to advance further inland across WCFL, keeping TPA/PIE/SRQ convective chances lower with PROB30 groups, and TEMPO groups for remaining terminals with higher confidence of convective impacts late afternoon and evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The easterly flow will continue as high pressure remains off the southeast U.S. coast. The main hazard will continue to be afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms that move west off land. Some of this convection could cause locally strong gusty winds and hazardous seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Plenty of low level moisture will hold over the are for the next several days keeping relative humidity values above critical levels. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 74 91 75 92 / 30 30 20 20 FMY 74 93 74 94 / 20 70 50 40 GIF 72 92 72 92 / 10 50 30 30 SRQ 73 92 74 92 / 40 30 30 20 BKV 68 93 70 94 / 20 20 20 20 SPG 75 93 76 93 / 40 20 20 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Close DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Carlisle  557 FXUS64 KSJT 200004 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 704 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe Storms possible this afternoon and evening. - Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday evening through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 106 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed early this afternoon, with some being severe. Expect these storms to continue developing and expanding in coverage through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Most CAMs eventually expand this convection into a somewhat organized MCS, and move it south into south Texas later tonight. The main concerns will continue to be large hail and damaging winds. In addition, precipitable water values are between 1 and 1.5 inches, and with the generally slow movement of these storms, flash flooding will also be a concern. For Wednesday, CAMs disagree with each other on the coverage and intensity of possible convection, but with a boundary in the area, the moisture remaining in place, and continued southwest flow with embedded shortwave energy, we will likely have another at least medium (20%-40%) chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon as afternoon heating affects the area. We will continue to see at least a Slight Risk for severe storms, mainly for our southern counties Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An active weather pattern will persist through much of the long term with a persistent upper level southwest flow with disturbances moving across our area. Also, the combination of a cold front south of the area and abundant moisture(PW values 1 to 1.5 inches) will bring a risk of localized flash flooding, especially Wednesday night and Thursday as the WPC has a slight risk of excessive rainfall along and south of the I-20 corridor. Also, there is and isolated flash flood threat this weekend across the southeast part of the area. There are medium to high chances of rain for at least a few days in the long term. Also, there is an isolated severe weather threat(marginal risk) for the southern 2/3 of the area Tuesday evening across the Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau. The main hazards will be large hail and damaging winds. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the upper 70s and 80s, around to slightly below normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 652 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact the southern terminals over the next 3-4 hours. Brief reductions in visby and gusty winds will accompany the strongest storms. Most of the activity will move out of our area by midnight. MVFR (and possibly IFR) cigs will spread into northern portions of the area overnight. Will include MVFR cigs at KABI and KSJT. Less confident in how far southward cigs will spread but will continue to monitor the next TAF package. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 61 78 64 78 / 40 30 80 70 San Angelo 62 79 62 80 / 60 40 70 60 Junction 64 81 63 80 / 70 30 80 60 Brownwood 63 79 63 78 / 60 30 70 70 Sweetwater 60 77 62 79 / 30 30 80 60 Ozona 63 80 62 81 / 60 40 70 30 Brady 63 78 64 77 / 70 30 70 70 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...42  718 FXUS62 KFFC 200008 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 808 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures continue through with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. - Increased rain chances return tomorrow through the weekend, especially across northern and western Georgia. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 241 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Warm and Dry Today: Another pleasant weather afternoon across north and central Georgia with high temperatures climbing to the upper 80s to low 90s, and some fair weather cumulus clouds. A lingering dry airmass with PWAT values under 1" across the area will prevent the cumulus from having much vertical growth. Rain Chances Return Wednesday: Winds turn out of the southwest tonight into Wednesday, bringing moisture back into the region and leading to a return of rain chances. Skies will start off mostly clear, with cumulus building and becoming widespread during the afternoon as PWAT values climb to around 1.2-1.4" in west/northwest GA. This area will likely see isolated to scattered showers and storms developing during the late afternoon and evening as instability peaks. Elsewhere, instability and moisture will be too low to result in anything more than brief isolated showers. Any storms that develop across northwest GA will be garden-variety due to low shear (<20kts) and meager instability (<1000 J/kg), with brief gusty winds and lightning being the primary threats. High temperatures will again climb to the upper 80s to low 90s across the area. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday morning through next Monday) Issued at 241 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Not much change in the extended periods. A weakening cold front will have entered the far northern tier by the time the long term period picks up on Thursday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger across north and west Georgia from Wed night with precip spreading further south through the day Thu. As ridging over the Atlantic Coast and west Atlantic continues to flatten, the front will make slow progress southward Thu, eventually stalling north of I-20 amid southwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures and dewpoints will start the morning on Thursday in the mid to upper 60s across the area. High temperatures will be slightly cooler across far north Georgia (in the low to mid 80s) behind the front compared to upper 80s elsewhere across north Georgia and low 90s over central Georgia. Hot and humid conditions will support diurnally enhanced convection, with PoPs of 60-80% for North GA, and 20-40% across central GA. The front will become less defined and begin to lift back northward Friday within southwest mid-level flow along the western periphery of the Atlantic ridge. This southwesterly flow will intensify as a second ridge approaches from the Great Plains, giving the front an additional push away to the north. While this ridge sets up over the eastern CONUS during the weekend, the aforementioned southwesterly flow will continue to spread ample moisture into the forecast area. Temperatures rising into the 80s and low 90s each day along with ample moisture will lead to scattered to numerous diurnal convection each day through the beginning of next week. Coverage of storms will be greatest during the afternoon and evening. At this time, the deepest moisture and highest PWATs across our area will remain across portions of North and West GA. will keep the most consistent heavy rainfall west of Georgia. Some locations across North GA could see 2 to 3 inch 7 day totals. This will be very welcomed precip to help with our current drought situation. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 803 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions are in place at all TAF sites, with scattered cu around 060-070 expected to dissipate by 02Z, giving way to mostly SKC overnight. Areas of patchy fog and low ceilings will be possible in areas south/east of MCN in the early morning, with FEW005 being possible as far as MCN between 10-14Z. Another cu field between 040-050 is expected to develop by 15Z. As a cold front draws closer to the area, scattered SHRA/TSRA will be possible in the mid afternoon into the evening, warranting PROB30 for TSRA at the ATL metro sites and CSG from 19-23Z. Winds will be SE at 3-6 kts this evening, going light and variable after 02Z, and shifting to SW by 14-15Z on Wednesday. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... High confidence on all elements. King && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 67 91 67 91 / 0 10 10 50 Atlanta 70 89 69 88 / 0 30 20 60 Blairsville 63 85 63 82 / 0 30 20 80 Cartersville 67 90 65 87 / 0 40 30 80 Columbus 69 92 68 92 / 0 20 20 20 Gainesville 67 89 67 87 / 0 20 20 70 Macon 67 92 68 92 / 0 10 0 20 Rome 65 88 63 86 / 0 40 30 80 Peachtree City 67 90 66 89 / 0 30 20 50 Vidalia 65 92 67 93 / 0 0 0 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Culver LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...King  700 FXUS65 KTFX 200008 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 608 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through this evening across the region. - More widespread precipitation tomorrow through Thursday. - Snow levels drop Wednesday night into Thursday, allowing for light snowfall accumulation in the mountains. - Warm and dry conditions are expected Friday through this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 1249 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: Residual moisture from the backside of an upper level trough exiting to the east will bring slight chances for precipitation this afternoon through this evening. There is enough instability to support weak thunderstorm development, especially in Central and North-central MT. Another upper level trough moves down from the Canadian Rockies into Montana tomorrow, bringing widespread wetting precipitation. There will still be enough instability to where a rumble of thunder could be heard across the region. A weak cold front passing through tomorrow night will cause snow levels to drop to around 6,000 ft. This will allow for light snowfall over the mountains and higher elevation mountain passes tomorrow night through Thursday morning. The exceptions are the Gallatin and Madison ranges, which could see a few inches. Thursday the upper level trough begins to move southeastward out of MT, allowing temperatures to begin to rise. Ridging builds over the western CONUS through the later part of this work week into the weekend, allowing warm temperatures, sunny skies, and dry conditions to prevail. Current models are showing breezy conditions this weekend, but as of now nothing impactful. -Dzomba - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Hi-res models are showing pretty scattered 15-30% chances for precipitation across the region today. In general, most locations will remain dry throughout the day except for where these pop-up showers end up developing. The highest chances for thunderstorm activity will be across Central and North-Central MT There is still good agreement for widespread wetting rains tomorrow. The heaviest amounts are currently expected along a stretch from the Northern Rockies down through Central MT including Great Falls and Helena into Lewistown. Probabilities of more than 0.10" of precipitation in this area are currently 80-100%, while probabilities of 0.25" of precipitation are currently sitting at 50-70%. While precipitation amounts across the remainder of North-Central and Southwest MT are not expected to be quite as high, there is still a 20-40% chance for a tenth of an inch or more. -thor and Dzomba && .AVIATION... 20/00z TAF Period Scattered showers will start to wind down between 20/01z to 20/03z, with a few isolated showers lingering through Wednesday morning. A cold front Wednesday will bring a northwest wind shift along with scattered to widespread showers. Weak instability will allow for some isolated thunderstorms to develop, but it will be a hit or miss across terminals. The front will also bring lowering ceilings to MVFR at times Wednesday. -Wilson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 39 57 38 61 / 20 90 60 20 CTB 38 54 34 62 / 10 80 50 0 HLN 38 64 38 61 / 20 60 90 30 BZN 33 62 35 55 / 20 20 100 70 WYS 26 57 30 51 / 10 30 90 60 DLN 34 62 35 57 / 20 10 90 40 HVR 39 62 35 65 / 30 60 20 10 LWT 35 58 35 55 / 20 80 70 40 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  204 FXUS64 KHGX 200013 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 713 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected this week with the first round arriving tonight. Strong to severe storms will be possible with damaging winds as the main threat. Locally heavy rainfall also expected. - Rain and storm chances remain elevated through the entire holiday weekend with periods of locally moderate to heavy rain, potentially leading to localized flooding. - The threat of hazardous rip currents remains through at least midweek before marine hazards transition to thunderstorm-driven waves. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Wetter conditions are expected this week and into Memorial Day weekend with multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain. Synoptically speaking, a broad longwave trough will continue to deepen and move across the Rockies and into the Plains today, persisting through the rest of the week. With a persistent southwesterly flow aloft, this trough is helping to eject multiple impulses of energy/disturbances ahead of it, resulting in increased dynamics/forcing across the region. At the surface, a warm and very moist airmass (PWAT near/at the climatological max for mid-May) along with an approaching frontal boundary from the north, will be enough to support a daily risk of showers and storms. This afternoon/early evening: A warm and humid airmass remains in place over the region. With moderate instability, and weak boundary (-ies) meandering over the area; we expect to see isolated to scattered activity. Tonight into Wednesday: The first round of scattered to widespread showers and storms is expected as early as this evening, continuing into early Wednesday. Early this afternoon, satellite and surface obs showed a cold front slowly moving southeast into north-central TX. While this front is forecast to remain to our west, a fairly unstable warm and moist airmass ahead of it, combined with deep moisture convergence due to a developing surface trough, and forcing aloft could potentially lead to scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. We will continue to monitor these clusters of storms as they could potentially evolve into a line of bowing segments, capable of producing damaging winds. SPC highlights this threat in their Day 1 Outlook with a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather across our far western counties, and a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) elsewhere. In addition to strong to severe storms, locally moderate to heavy rain is expected with the strongest storms. Forecast rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches can be expected with isolated higher amounts of 5 to 7 inches possible. Rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour will likely leading to localized flash flooding along with quick responses on area rivers and creeks. Rain/storms should gradually taper off early Wednesday morning. While a lull in activity is possible during the day, cannot ruled out isolated to scattered showers/storms popping up in the afternoon with the peak of daytime heating. Thursday and Friday: Periods of showers and storms will continue as more disturbances aloft move through the region. The next mesoscale convective system is forecast to move through on Thursday during the day, with an additional isolated to scattered activity on Friday. Specific details on the exact timing and location of the heaviest rain remain difficult to determine; however, widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches will be possible with isolated higher amounts up to 4 inches possible. Memorial Day Weekend ( Saturday - Monday): A continuos parade of disturbances aloft combined with sufficient deep moisture will support additional periods of showers and storms through the entire holiday weekend. Based on the latest trends, forecast rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches are possible. Locally higher totals possible,especially with the strongest storms. With the ground already saturated from previous rainfall, soils will be primed for runoff, leading to flooding problems in areas of heavy downpours. While confidence is high for a wet weekend, confidence in the exact timing and location of the heaviest rain is low. Initial rounds of storms early in the week will potentially affect any storms later in the week. Focus on the potential impacts and stay tuned to the latest forecast, especially if you have outdoor plans this Memorial Day weekend. See Hydrology section below for more information on forecast rainfall and potential flooding. JM && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 647 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 For the 20/00Z TAF update, VCTS/TSRA convection is currently east of KUTS/KCXO and west of KCLL, slowly shifting eastward. A majority of the periods will be in MVFR/IFR across most of the airspace due to multiple ongoing rounds of -SHRA/TSRA convection, including now through 20/06Z and 20/08Z through 20/15Z. Between the two rounds, isolated VCSH/VCTS convection could linger, especially in the stratiform rains behind the convective systems. Expect MVFR/IFR vis/cigs in the corresponding timeframes of convection with southerly surface winds at 5-10 kts. Cassel && .MARINE... Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Winds and seas will continue to weaken/subside this afternoon, with only some building seas up to 8ft persisting well offshore through early this evening. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected this week, with the first one starting tonight and extending into early Wednesday morning. A few of these storms will be capable of becoming strong to severe with strong winds as the main threat. Locally heavy rain will also be expected. A daily risk of showers and storms will continue this week and persist through the Memorial Day weekend. Light to occasionally onshore winds should prevail through the period; however, stronger gusts are possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Regarding beach conditions, there is a high risk of rip currents persisting through the weekend. JM && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected this evening through Monday. The first round will start tonight bringing 1-3" with isolated higher amounts of 5-7+". With PW values exceeding the 90th percentile (~1.7-2.1"), rainfall rates of 2-4"/hr are possible in the heaviest downpours. Anywhere we see these intense rainfall rates, localized flash flooding is possible. That being said, we are not anticipating widespread river flooding just yet; however, this will help prime the soils as we continue with a wet pattern. As the week progresses, multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall on top of primed soils will generate runoff and cause rises on area rivers and watersheds. The greatest threat for heavy rainfall, flash and riverine flooding comes this holiday weekend as intense rainfall rates will bring accumulated values of 4-6+" across most of southeast Texas Saturday into Monday. Widespread action to minor stage flooding is expected with moderate to isolated major stage flooding possible depending on where the most rainfall accumulates. Remember that you can monitor updated river forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/). Landry-Guyton && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 69 83 70 80 / 70 50 40 100 Houston (IAH) 71 86 73 84 / 70 60 30 100 Galveston (GLS) 75 85 78 85 / 70 60 1070 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...Cassel MARINE...JM  373 FXUS64 KFWD 200017 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 717 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms will continue along and near a cold front mainly across East and Central Texas this evening. Some of the storms in Central Texas could be severe with damaging winds and large hail. - Daily chances for scattered showers and storms will continue Wednesday into the weekend. Locally heavy rain will be possible but the severe weather threat appears low. && .UPDATE... Issued at 714 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The cold front, along with the majority of this afternoon's activity, has now pushed into East and Central Texas, with the severe risk now generally confined across Central Texas through the rest of this evening. The front is still expected to stall across our region as we head into Wednesday, keeping a focus for isolated to scattered storm development tomorrow. No major changes were made to the short term forecast this evening, so check the short and long term discussions below for more details on the upcoming forecast. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A relatively active pattern is starting to take shape over North and Central Texas for the next several days. A cold front is currently moving through North Texas that has a somewhat impressive temperature gradient associated with it. The temperature in Bowie is in the mid 50s, while the remainder of the CWA ahead of the front has temperatures in the 80s to low 90s. Expect the front to slowly move south this afternoon and eventually stall south of I-20 this evening. Additional outflow boundaries should allow for a few storms to develop across Western Central Texas later in the day, ahead of the front. In addition, a strong and fast-moving outflow boundary is moving south across eastern North Texas. Although this boundary is not the aforementioned cold front, it is still providing sufficient lift to produce scattered showers and storms along and behind the boundary. We're also monitoring the area east of I-35 and south of I- 20 where additional disorganized showers and storms may develop in association with a remnant MCV over the Brazos Valley. The pre-frontal airmass is very moist and unstable, with dewpoint temperatures in the low to mid 70s across most of the area. Instability aloft varies quite a bit across the region. The most unstable airmass resides over western Central Texas with MLCAPE values around 4000+ J/kg. Most of North Texas is still unstable with MLCAPE values around 3000 or so, but the 18Z FWD RAOB sounding indicates that lapse rates aloft are not as impressive as they were earlier today, falling from 8.9 degC/km to only 7.2. Areas where MCV convection is possible are even more stable with MLCAPE values only around 1500. The convection today has been and will continue to be disorganized at best. For starters, the cold front is very shallow, so it is undercutting the warm and humid air, forcing the updrafts to go up well behind the boundary and lose access to the warm/unstable air in short-order. Once the storms are able to develop, the deep-layer shear is unfavorable for organized convection. The sheer amount of instability will maintain our severe threat through the afternoon and evening, but the threat will be isolated and dependent on individual updrafts organizing instead of using the background environment. The main threats continue to be large hail and damaging wind gusts, mainly for areas south of I-20 and west of I-35. To our west, a cluster of storms has developed near San Angelo that will continue through the afternoon/evening. The cluster should merge into a nocturnal MCS that takes a turn east-southeast toward our Central Texas counties overnight. Depending on how far north the storms develop, they may move into our Western Central Texas counties around midnight, or they may just skirt our counties just to the south. There may be an isolated damaging wind gust with this activity, but the severe threat should be lower by this time. While not mentioned in the discussion above...the very warm airmass is allowing for efficient rainfall today. While we haven't observed any significant flooding, some areas have already received over 2" of rain today. Expect ponding on roadways and minor flooding of typical flood-prone locations with most storms today. There will be an increased risk of flash flooding for areas that have intersecting boundaries, where multiple updrafts can develop in the same area simultaneously. The cold front will remain stalled over North and Central Texas tomorrow, but start to wash out as southerly flow starts to take over in the afternoon. In addition, a weak mid-level shortwave will start to move across the state, triggering additional showers and storms late in the day into the evening. Instability looks to be much weaker tomorrow, with little threat of strong or severe storms. This would allow for the rare occurrence of beneficial spring-time rainfall with little risk of severe weather. The counter, however is that the airmass will still be capable of producing very efficient rain-making downdrafts. If storms are able to form along the stalled front and train in locations that received heavy rain today, there would be an increased risk of flash flooding. Pinpointing where these features will be is futile given the weak forcing aloft, so I would consider this a very low confidence forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The surface boundary should almost completely lift north by Thursday as a more organized mid- and upper-level system is forecast to move across the Southern Plains. This should trigger an additional round of showers and storms across the region Thursday into Friday. Limited instability and shear will keep the severe threat very low, but the flood threat will be ratcheted up, particularly for localized areas that receive heavy rain multiple days in a row. Southwest winds aloft will remain in place through the weekend, with some of the global guidance bringing in cut off low features into early next week. While we are not confident of exactly how the forecast will pan out in the extended-range, the chance of beneficial rainfall across the region will continue through the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 714 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The majority of precipitation has pushed east/southeast of D10, with only light precipitation echoes remaining across the North Texas TAF sites. Currently, a storm is approaching ACT and will impact the terminals through 02Z. Trailing showers/storms will remain possible on and off at ACT until closer to around 06Z before everything moves east. At the latest, the edge of precipitation may nudge into the vicinity of ACT through 07-08Z, though the majority of this should remain south of the airport. Cigs across North Texas will continue to bounce around between VFR and IFR for the next several hours around D10, before temporarily lifting to low VFR late tonight. Another slug of MVFR/IFR cigs will move overtop the TAF sites after 06Z, impacting D10 between 07-16Z and ACT between 06-20Z. During this time, northeasterly winds will prevail with speeds generally around 10 KT or less. Over tomorrow, winds will gradually veer further out of the east at the same speeds as above. VFR is expected to prevail the rest of the period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Limited spotter activation may be requested on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 66 81 67 77 / 30 30 60 90 Waco 70 80 67 78 / 100 30 60 90 Paris 63 80 65 75 / 40 30 50 90 Denton 64 79 65 76 / 30 30 60 90 McKinney 65 80 66 76 / 30 30 60 90 Dallas 66 82 67 78 / 30 30 60 90 Terrell 66 81 66 77 / 40 30 60 90 Corsicana 68 83 69 80 / 60 30 60 90 Temple 69 81 68 79 / 70 40 60 90 Mineral Wells 63 78 63 76 / 50 30 60 80 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bonnette LONG TERM....Bonnette AVIATION...Prater  437 FXUS65 KABQ 200019 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 619 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 558 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 - The threat of rapid fire spread continues in the lower Rio Grande Valley and surrounding highlands today and possibly on Wednesday. - Strong, erratic wind gusts from virga showers will impact a few spots across northwestern and north-central NM through this evening. - Overnight rain showers and patchy drizzle over eastern New Mexico will give way to increasing thunderstorm chances on Wednesday and Thursday east of the central mountain chain. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 137 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 A nearly stationary H5 trough draped from northeast to southwest across the Great Basin will keep dry southwest flow aloft over the southern Rockies thru Wednesday. At the surface, a moist backdoor cold front that surged southwest thru eastern NM this morning is banked up against the central mt chain with gap winds still gusting to around 30 mph in the RGV. Surface convergence between the dry southwest flow across western NM and the moist southeast flow from eastern NM will help to develop gusty high-based showers over the northern mts thru this evening. This activity will move quickly northeast before fizzling out over the Sangre de Cristo Mts by midnight. Low level southeast flow will persist over eastern NM tonight and help widespread low stratus to develop east of the central mt chain. 13Z NBM ceiling probabilities <3,000' are 40-60% over east-central and northeast NM with probs <1,000' around 20-40%. Several model soundings also support patchy drizzle over parts of the eastern plains with enough elevated instability for light rain showers as well. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding how much instability will be present over eastern NM Wednesday afternoon. CAMs and global models are all over the place with convective initiation, coverage, and even the existence of storms east of the central mt chain. QPF amounts with models that do show storms are all over the place as well. The latest SPC convective outlook expanded the 'Marginal Risk' over eastern NM. Low level moisture will remain in place over eastern NM Wednesday night with high chances for more low stratus east of the central mt chain (40-60% chance). && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 137 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 By Thursday and Friday, forecast models are in very good agreement dragging a more well-defined H5 trough from the northern Rockies into the northern Great Plains. This will help to force drier zonal flow eastward across more of NM with near total scouring of low level moisture from eastern NM. Downslope flow will allow temps to trend warmer over eastern NM with widespread breezy west winds and humidity below 15% (except perhaps northeast NM). Surface high pressure building down the Front Range in the wake of the departing trough axis is shown forcing a moist backdoor cold front into eastern NM Saturday. Meanwhile, an H5 ridge is shown building over the southwest U.S. thru early next week with low level return flow improving Sunday and Monday. This may begin a much anticipated pattern change toward increasing chances for showers and storms with measurable rainfall amounts. The 13Z NBM 50th percentile QPF has widespread amounts >0.10" over central and western NM with >0.20" over eastern NM Sunday thru Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 558 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Until midnight, scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to stream northeastward at 20-30 KT along the continental divide and over the northern mountains. Some cellswill produce localized, brief, and erratic dry microburst, or mostly dry microburst, wind gusts up to 45 KT. After midnight, widespread low clouds and areas of fog will develop east of the central mountain chain producing MVFR and IFR conditions. Areas of light rain or drizzle are also expected overnight, with isolated rain showers in the mix, and a small chance of a few lightning strikes. Showers will increase in coverage across eastern areas Wednesday morning, then scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast Wednesday afternoon and evening along and east of the central mountain chain. A few storms may turn severe with large hail and damaging winds mainly between 20-03Z Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 137 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Critical fire weather over the lower Rio Grande Valley and nearby highlands today may return tomorrow with similar conditions to today. RFTIs may trend a tad lower Wednesday but ERC values are still high with an even longer period of single digit humidity. Confidence is not high enough yet to issue a Fire Weather Watch given wind speeds are more marginal. If speeds trend stronger then a Red Flag Warning may be needed. Breezy south to southwest winds with more single digit humidity over central and western NM Thursday and Friday will lead to widespread elevated fire weather. Confidence is higher that winds will remain below critical thresholds. Meanwhile, eastern NM will be under the influence of moist southeast flow and increasing chances for low clouds, patchy fog, drizzle, showers, and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. Beginning Saturday, a pattern change toward more widespread moisture with lighter flow aloft is anticipated. This transition may bring higher chances for showers and storms with wetting rainfall over much of the region thru Tuesday, especially eastern NM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 42 76 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 36 73 30 76 / 5 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 42 73 39 74 / 20 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 35 73 34 75 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 40 71 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 41 77 39 77 / 5 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 42 74 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 51 78 49 75 / 0 0 0 5 Datil........................... 46 73 45 72 / 0 0 0 5 Reserve......................... 39 78 38 80 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 43 83 42 84 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 35 66 33 69 / 20 5 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 50 72 49 73 / 20 10 5 10 Pecos........................... 43 70 43 73 / 5 30 40 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 42 69 41 70 / 40 20 0 10 Red River....................... 32 64 31 64 / 50 20 10 10 Angel Fire...................... 31 65 29 65 / 30 40 20 20 Taos............................ 40 73 36 74 / 20 20 5 5 Mora............................ 40 67 42 70 / 30 30 50 30 Espanola........................ 48 79 45 80 / 10 10 5 10 Santa Fe........................ 49 72 48 74 / 10 20 20 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 47 75 45 77 / 10 20 10 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 56 82 53 81 / 5 5 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 54 84 50 83 / 5 5 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 53 86 49 85 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 54 84 51 83 / 10 0 0 0 Belen........................... 51 86 47 84 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 53 84 50 84 / 10 5 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 50 86 45 84 / 5 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 53 85 51 84 / 10 5 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 51 86 47 84 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 54 79 52 79 / 10 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 53 84 51 83 / 10 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 56 88 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 49 76 48 75 / 5 10 0 0 Tijeras......................... 46 79 44 79 / 5 10 0 0 Edgewood........................ 45 77 43 77 / 5 10 5 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 42 77 40 79 / 5 10 5 5 Clines Corners.................. 44 68 44 73 / 10 30 20 20 Mountainair..................... 46 79 44 77 / 5 5 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 47 78 45 76 / 5 5 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 53 81 52 80 / 0 5 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 50 74 50 73 / 5 20 5 10 Capulin......................... 36 59 39 65 / 20 10 60 50 Raton........................... 40 64 41 70 / 20 30 60 50 Springer........................ 42 65 43 72 / 20 20 60 60 Las Vegas....................... 42 64 44 71 / 20 30 60 30 Clayton......................... 42 60 46 69 / 10 20 70 60 Roy............................. 42 61 45 70 / 20 20 70 50 Conchas......................... 47 69 48 79 / 20 30 70 40 Santa Rosa...................... 47 68 47 76 / 20 40 50 40 Tucumcari....................... 48 71 49 79 / 10 40 60 50 Clovis.......................... 50 69 51 79 / 20 50 40 30 Portales........................ 50 71 50 80 / 20 50 40 30 Fort Sumner..................... 50 73 49 81 / 20 50 30 30 Roswell......................... 57 80 55 85 / 20 50 20 20 Picacho......................... 52 77 50 80 / 10 50 10 30 Elk............................. 49 81 48 81 / 5 30 0 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ106. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...44  438 FXZS60 NSTU 200019 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 119 PM SST Tue May 19 2026 .Discussion... Latest satellite data indicates unstable conditions diminishing as the trough that brought considerable flash flooding yesterday moves further southeast. Fair weather has taken over and will persist through Thursday. This means limited showers and light winds are possible for this duration. By Friday, a strong high pressure system over New Zealand will extend towards the Samoa Island chain. This feature will shift winds south and may strengthen it up to 20 mph through Saturday. Additionally, south winds could usher in cool air from the south. As the high moves east on Sunday, this will allow for a weak trough to the northeast to move in the area Sunday night. Expect an uptick in showers Sunday night through Tuesday until the trough exits the region thereafter. However, the risk for flash flooding from this trough is low at this time. && .Marine... Surf and wind have subsided in the area, which prompted a cancellation for the high surf advisory. However, as waves continue between 6 to 8 feet, a small craft advisory will hold until tonight. Expect ideal ocean conditions Wednesday through Thursday, before another swell moves in from the south over the weekend. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory && $$ TM  534 FXUS64 KCRP 200020 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 720 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES... .UPDATE... Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The main focus for the short-term period is the developing MCS in Central Texas which is progged to propagate south-southeastward down the instability axis late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Despite the nocturnal timing, warm southerly flow should maintain 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the convective line with DCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range supporting a damaging wind threat, particularly given the strong system cold pool likely to develop. Additionally there are hints among the CAMs of a wake low develop behind the system, so that will be something to watch for Wednesday morning. With the afternoon update, refined PoP timing as the convection looks to begin its southward push a little later which would favor the best timing window for storms from 1AM-7AM (progressing from NW to SE). Although rainfall totals of 1-2 inches can be expected with the passage of the system (even locally 2-3 inches), the progressive nature of the MCS will hopefully limit widespread hydro concerns. && .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 717 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Primary threat will be damaging winds. - Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) to Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of Flash Flooding due to excessive rainfall tonight through Wednesday morning. Continued risk of heavy rainfall and flash and river flooding each day through at least Saturday - Dangerous swimming conditions with a high risk of rip currents along the Middle Texas Coast through this week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Another shortwave will move into the region from Mexico tonight around midnight. This feature will interact with a cold front moving into the area that has been primed with moisture, thanks to a strong low level jet. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible tonight along with the potential for heavy rain. It should enter the Brush Country around midnight and move into the Coastal Plains to Coastal Bend around 03-06 AM tomorrow morning. Therefore, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted all of South Texas under a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds as the primary threat followed by hail. Likewise, with the soils primed from last nights MCS, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted the southern half of the CWA under Marginal Risk of Flash Flooding with a Slight Risk for the northern counties. As we move further into the week, a series of shortwaves are expected to continue moving into the region producing periods of moderate to heavy through Sunday night. With that being said, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted all of South Texas under a Marginal to Slight Risk of Flash Flooding Wednesday and Thursday and a Marginal Risk for all of South Texas Thursday and Friday. Current rainfall accumulations expected from tonight through Sunday night are 3.5-5" across the western half and 3.5-6" across the eastern half, with the highest total expected across the Victoria Crossroads. Some areas could see isolated higher amounts. Please continue to check the forecast for updated as the next few days evolve. Persistent strong onshore flow with swell periods of 7-8 seconds warrants a high risk of rip currents, causing dangerous swimming conditions. These conditions will also lead to another threat for minor coastal flooding early tomorrow morning during high tide. We'll need to keep a close eye on webcams with how much wave runup we get, but confidence is low with the lack of buoy observations. &&.AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR stratus will begin to fill in over the coastal plains terminals in the 01 to 03Z timeframe. The main concern for the remainder of the TAF period will be a line of storms progged to move into the area from the north late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Currently 07 to 12Z looks to be the most probable time frame for direct terminal impacts, with strong winds (gusts in excess of 35 kts) and temporary visibility reductions the primary concerns. Winds will generally be out of the SE outside of gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflows. && .MARINE... Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A fresh breeze (BF 5) is expected to continue through this afternoon and into the early evening hours. Winds will relax to a moderate breeze (BF 4) Tuesday night and continue through the end of the work week. Medium chances (50-65%) for shower and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night through Friday night before increasing to higher chances (60-80%) Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 89 77 87 / 60 50 20 80 Victoria 73 87 73 84 / 70 50 20 90 Laredo 74 92 72 89 / 60 20 60 50 Alice 75 90 74 88 / 60 50 30 70 Rockport 78 89 78 88 / 70 50 20 80 Cotulla 72 89 72 87 / 60 40 70 70 Kingsville 77 89 76 87 / 50 30 30 70 Navy Corpus 79 86 78 86 / 50 40 20 80 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for TXZ345-442- 443-447. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JCP/84 AVIATION...NC/91  679 FXAK68 PAFC 200025 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 425 PM AKDT Tue May 19 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight through Friday)... There is no end in sight for this very active pattern, so expect continued cloud cover, cooler than normal temperatures, and generally wet conditions - especially considering this is typically one of the driest times of year. Starting with the current analysis, a long-wave trough encompasses all of the Bering Sea/Aleutians and extends eastward to mainland AK/extends across the Bering Sea. A deep low which had served as the anchor of the trough in the Bering has dissipated, but a new deepening low along the western Aleutians is moving right in and will ultimately take the place of the original low. A short-wave ridge over the northeast Pacific is amplifying ahead of a digging short-wave. This is steering the short-wave crossing the north Pacific northward toward mainland AK. A surface low has formed ahead of this short-wave and is tracking northward toward the Gulf. Meanwhile, a short-wave is tracking northward across Southcentral and beginning to exit to the Interior. This is producing some showers inland and steady rain along the coast (mainly from Valdez to Cordova). Southeasterly gap winds have weakened from their peak, but persist for Turnagain Arm into Anchorage, the Knik River Valley into Palmer, and along the Copper River. While the day started out cloudy, breaks of sun are developing behind the short- wave this afternoon. The aforementioned north Pacific short-wave and surface low will lift northward into the Gulf tonight. The short-wave will amplify and become negatively tilted, with the strongest portion of the trough crossing Prince William Sound and the Copper River Basin on Wednesday. Have increased rainfall totals, with an inch or more likely for Prince William Sound communities and around a quarter of an inch for much of the Copper Valley. Models are in much better agreement on spreading light rain north and west to the western Kenai, Anchorage, and Mat-Su by early Wednesday morning. Thus, have adjusted the latest forecast to indicate the likelihood of light rain Wednesday morning. The main wind impact will be the development of a barrier jet along the north Gulf coast ahead of the surface low on Wednesday. Gale force winds are likely from south of Cordova eastward to Cape Suckling. The upper short-wave will exit quickly northward late Wednesday. Cooler air aloft behind the trough combined with some breaks of sun will trigger a few afternoon/evening showers. There will be very little break before the new Bering storm begins to affect Kodiak, the Gulf waters, and Southcentral. A leading frontal system will cross the western Gulf Thursday while a series of generally weak upper level short-waves stream northward across Southcentral. There will be a big difference in the mean flow of this storm system, with much deeper south to south-west flow as you head up in the atmosphere. There will still be southeasterly gap winds at the surface, but these winds will be much shallower and downslope flow will be much weaker. As a result, expect much more widespread rain and rain showers with this storm Thursday through Friday - including the western Kenai, Anchorage, and the Matanuska Valley. With weaker short-waves, rainfall along coastal areas will be somewhat lighter than it has been in recent storms. The Copper Valley will be notably drier than the rest of Southcentral under this flow. Temperatures will remain below normal under mostly cloudy skies. -SEB && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... The deep upper-level trough and vertically stacked low over the Bering continues to be the dominant weather feature and driver of the overall weather pattern for much of the region. Early this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms will be possible for northern Southwest Alaska, from Bethel to Aniak and east. By this evening, a shortwave pushing inland from the eastern Bering Sea will bring a round of rainfall to the Kuskokwim Delta lasting through tonight. Beginning tonight, a new low pressure system, originating from the northern Pacific will approach the western Aleutians, pushing a swath of rainfall and gusty southeasterly winds from Adak to Shemya early this evening. The low will continue to progress northeastward, with the low center moving over Adak by Wednesday afternoon, and its eastern leading front moving over Unalaska and the Pribilofs. As its front tracks east, expect strong southerly winds along the warm front, with the potential for westerly storm- force gusts wrapping underneath the low, south of the Chain. The front will then reach the Southwest coast by Wednesday night with the front and parent low continuing to track northeast and weakening through Thursday. -CL && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)... Broad upper level troughing over the Bering Sea and Gulf looks to continue to remain in place through the long term. Several shortwaves rotating around the upper low across the western Bering, North Pacific, and into the Gulf will continue to support the active pattern and unsettled conditions across much of southern Alaska through this weekend into early next week. Models are in good agreement to begin the long term period with widespread showers across the southern Mainland as a shortwave lifts north out of the Gulf. Farther south, a more potent shortwave and surface low tracks across the southern Gulf with most of its moisture and energy directed towards the Panhandle. By early next week, the upper low over the Bering Sea weakens in favor of a new, stronger low lifting north out of the North Pacific towards the Aleutians. Some uncertainty remains on the speed and exact track the deepening surface low takes as it approaches the Aleutian Chain, but all guidance eventually ends up tracking this system into the southeastern Bering Sea by late in the period. Gusty winds accompanied by light to moderate rainfall can be expected along the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula before pushing into the Gulf, with the heaviest precipitation expected along the southern AKPen and immediate Gulf coast. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions will persist. The gusty southeasterly winds are expected to diminish late this evening and then become light from the north after midnight. While south-southeast winds develop again Wednesday afternoon, they should not be nearly as strong as the past two days. Light rain is expected to develop late tonight and persist on-and-off into Wednesday afternoon. && $$  106 FXUS61 KRLX 200032 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 832 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation Forecast Discussion update. 527 PM Update... Scattered thunderstorms have developed across southeast Ohio over the last hour or so, with a strong to isolated severe threat over the next hour or two across the area as activity continues to shift northeast through the region. The main threat is strong to damaging wind gusts with any stronger / collapsing cores, although marginally severe hail cannot entirely be ruled out. Have increased PoPs across southeast Ohio and far northwest West Virginia over the next few hours to better reflect radar trends. 147 PM Update... Chances for locally heavy rainfall along and ahead of a cold front Wednesday have increased. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across the north and west this afternoon. A decaying complex of storms could bring a marginal threat for damaging wind gusts to southeast Ohio tonight. 2.) A cold front crossing the region Wednesday afternoon and evening brings a threat for damaging winds and localized flash flooding, particularly across the Metro Valley. 3.) Much cooler and drier conditions are expected Thursday. Unsettled weather returns Friday and lasts through the Memorial Day weekend with repeated chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate diurnal cumulus/cumulonimbus development across the region this afternoon amid temperatures climbing into the upper 80s. With relatively weak capping everywhere, at least isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible through loss of heating this evening, most prevalent across the west and north where capping is weakest. Steep low level lapse rates could yield some gusty winds underneath the strongest cores, but the overall severe risk remains fairly low through early this evening.. Attention then turns to tonight as a complex of storms approaches from the west. With the loss of daytime heating and waning instability, this complex is expected to gradually dissipate as it approaches the Ohio River. However, any more robust line segments could still contain marginally severe gusts as they move into southeast Ohio. KEY MESSAGE 2... The main forecast challenge resides with the activity ahead of and along an approaching cold front on Wednesday. Moisture pooling ahead of the front, coupled with strong surface heating, will yield moderate instability heading into Wednesday afternoon with Mixed-Layer CAPE building in excess of 1500 J/kg. While mid-level lapse rates remain rather poor, steep low level lapse rates and DCAPE near 800 J/kg will present a threat for damaging downburst winds. Deep layer shear is expected to remain on the weaker side, generally around 25 to 30KTs, which will favor multicellular clusters. A transient window for supercells may materialize if a brief uptick in shear to 35 KTs overlaps with peak heating. Some mid-level drying could introduce a marginal hail threat in the strongest updrafts, but wet bulb zero heights generally remain above 10-11kft limiting potential for survival of marginally severe hail to the surface. A secondary, and perhaps more impactful, concern for Wednesday will be the potential for training heavy downpours. Boundary flow is forecast to become nearly parallel to the advancing front. This, combined with deep warm cloud depths around 9000 to 10000 ft and precipitable water values pooling to 1.7 inches (above the 90th percentile climatology for this time of year), supports highly efficient rainfall production. Probability matched means HREF/REFS highlight a narrow temporal window between 4 PM and 8 PM for localized heavy rain, clustered primarily across the Metro Valley and adjacent counties. While antecedent soil conditions are quite dry across the area, the intensity of the rainfall could overwhelm the basin response in steep terrain and urbanized environments. A quick 2.5 inches of rain would be sufficient to push small creeks out of their banks and cause flash flooding with lesser amounts causing issues in built up areas. A targeted flash flood watch may become necessary if guidance remains consistent on the placement of the heaviest rainfall axis over the next few model runs. KEY MESSAGE 3... The cold front pushes south of the area on Thursday, allowing most locations to dry out as cooler air filters in. High temperatures will struggle to get out of the 70s on Thursday under the influence of cold advection. This respite is brief, as the frontal boundary shifts back to the north as a warm front on Friday, placing the region in an unsettled warm sector heading into the Memorial Day weekend. The boundary is expected to stall just to our north across the Upper Ohio Valley. Friday currently appears to be the wettest day of the extended period. Depending on the exact placement and amounts of Wednesday's heavy rainfall, antecedent soil moisture could become locally compromised, yielding a conditional risk for additional high water concerns on Friday. Showery activity will continue periodically from Saturday through Memorial Day as a persistent Bermuda high over the Atlantic continues to shunt shortwaves through the Ohio Valley. Through this period, there is no strong signal for organized severe weather, as atmospheric instability is expected to remain rather weak with only periodic upticks in deep layer shear. Temperatures will rebound, bringing unseasonably warm, though perhaps not record-breaking, conditions back to the region for the latter half of the holiday weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A weakening line of showers/storms will approach southeast Ohio early tonight, potentially bringing gusty winds and very brief MVFR VSBY to a few locations, although none of our TAF sites are anticipated to be affected. VFR persists elsewhere amid dry conditions and SCT high-level clouds. A cold front will cross on Wednesday bringing scattered showers/storms that gradually progress from north to south. Some heavier storms are possible during the afternoon/evening, potentially bringing strong wind gusts and heavy rain. Brief MVFR/IFR VSBY is possible in any heavier showers or storms, while MVFR and perhaps IFR CIGs are expected in the afternoon/evening behind the front. Calm or light southwest flow is expected tonight. Southwest flow on Wednesday ahead of the front will veer to NNW following its passage. Occasional breezes of 15 kts or so are expected during the day on Wednesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High tonight, medium on Wednesday. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions associated with showers and storms on Wednesday may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 05/20/26 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR conditions are possible Wednesday night into Thursday with showers and/or low stratus, especially in/near the mountains. Brief IFR is also possible at times Friday through the weekend with showers and/or thunderstorms. && .Climate... Slightly more substantial cloud cover may keep afternoon highs today just short of records in several locations. Forecast / Record High Temperatures ---------------------- Today, 5/19 | ---------------------- CRW | 90 / 95 (1931) | HTS | 89 / 92 (1996) | CKB | 89 / 90 (1959) | PKB | 89 / 90 (1964) | BKW | 85 / 89 (1996) | EKN | 86 / 93 (1996) | ---------------------- && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP/GW AVIATION...GW CLIMATE...JP  267 FXUS66 KLOX 200033 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 533 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS...19/114 PM. Light offshore flow will continue through Wednesday leading to clear skies and warm temperatures. Beginning Thursday there will be a return to cooling May Grey conditions which will last through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...19/159 PM. Very little change to the previous forecasts through the rest of this week. Temperatures will peak Wednesday, generally 1-3 degrees warmer than today, except around 5 degrees warmer in the Antelope Valley. Light offshore flow will start the day but will turn onshore by afternoon or sooner at the coast. Warmer valleys will reach the lower 90s while areas towards the coast will be in the 70s and 80s. These are roughly 5-10 degrees above normal. While the upper level pattern remains more or less the same through the rest of the week, the primary change will be the reversal from offshore to onshore flow beginning Thursday which will bring temperatures back down to near normal levels by the weekend. This will also coincide with a return of the marine layer, as early as Thursday in some areas but possibly not til Friday or Saturday for the valleys. One exception to this may be southwest Santa Barbara County where a 2-4mb offshore gradient during the overnight hours will likely create nightly Sundowners with winds gusting between 25 and 40 mph at times, particularly Wednesday and Thursday nights. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...19/209 PM. The rest of the 7 day forecast into early next week is very benign as the baggy trough will persist with moderate to strong onshore flow through the period. This is likely to maintain temperatures near to slightly below normal temperatures with a steady dose of night and morning low clouds and fog covering most coast and valley areas. And once again there is the possible exception across southwestern Santa Barbara County where offshore flow returns Monday night with gusty north winds at times. && .AVIATION...20/0032Z. At 2342Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 700 ft deep, with an inversion up to 1600 ft with a temperature of 23 C. High confidence in CAVU TAFs. There is a 20% chance of 6SM FU at KVNY due to Sandy Fire from 02Z-06Z Wednesday. KLAX...High confidence in the 00Z TAF. VFR conditions are expected. However, there is a 20% chance of MVFR VSBYs in HZ 11Z-16Z Wednesday. There is a 15% chance of east wind component reaching 7-8 kts from 12Z-16Z Wednesday. KBUR...High confidence in the 00Z TAF. No wind issues expected. && .MARINE...19/203 PM. For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels, except for localized pockets of near SCA NW winds during the afternoons and evenings. Chances of issuing an advisory is fairly low. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Localized near SCA winds are possible south of Port San Luis Wednesday afternoon through early evening. Otherwise, winds & seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Friday. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. Local SCA winds may occur again later today and Wednesday evening off the coast of Point Dume, across the San Pedro Channel, and in the Santa Barbara Channel. Otherwise through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...Ciliberti MARINE...Black/Schoenfeld SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  299 FXUS61 KPHI 200034 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 834 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All of the Heat Advisory now in effect through 8 PM Wednesday. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm possible through early this evening mainly north/west of I-95. Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Hot and humid conditions continue, with record setting early season heat probable, through Wednesday. 2. A strong cold front brings some showers and possibly isolated severe thunderstorms to the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. 3. Significantly cooler temperatures and showers for the end of this week and the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions continue, with record setting early season heat probable, through Wednesday. A strong upper-level ridge centered off the Southeast U.S. coast will remain in place through tonight before it starts to flatten on its northwest side during Wednesday. This along with surface high pressure anchored in the western Atlantic will continue to drive a southwesterly flow of early season (anomalous) heat across our area through Wednesday. Temperatures peak in the 90s for many areas again Wednesday afternoon, except cooler along the coasts and the higher terrain. While the surface dew points will mix out some during peak heating this afternoon due to the drier ground and boundary layer, this stretch of early season heat, with additional record breaking high temperatures probable, will have potentially greater impacts. The Heat Advisory remains in place across much of the region, where the heat index criteria starts at 100F (the urban I-95 corridor criteria starts at 96F through June). While some areas will probably fall a little short, the potential for greater impacts (lack of acclimation) continues to drive our decision. Where the wind turns more from the south and especially southeast will result in quite a bit of cooling due to the chilly ocean and therefore continued to not include the immediate coastal zones in the Heat Advisory. Peak heat indices will be near 100 degrees, with the core of the heat shifting a bit more south and east during Wednesday as a strong cold front starts to arrive. Despite it being a little cooler from Berks County, the Lehigh Valley into northern New Jersey Wednesday, it will be another day of hot and humid conditions. Given the consecutive stretch of this early season heat, opted to continue the current Heat Advisory through 8 PM Wednesday but extended the far north and west segment (also through 8 PM Wednesday). High temperatures on Wednesday will depend on how quickly cloud cover arrives along with showers and some thunderstorms, especially north and west of I-95. Either way, we will have a high launching pad once again for temperatures to start Wednesday and it will still be rather hot. This afternoon and into this evening will mainly precipitation- free, however an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out mainly north and west of I-95 given the amount of heat and instability combined with a thermal trough nearby. This would most likely be terrain induced or isolated activity arriving from the west. Given steep low-level lapse rates, dry boundary layer (high DCAPE) but rather weak forcing, any convection should be short-lived and pulse variety with locally gusty winds (downbursts) possible. KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings some showers and possibly isolated severe thunderstorms to the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. A strong cold front will settle across our area Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night before stalling near Delmarva into Thursday. Showers and some thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front, and there looks to be a zone of higher instability across our central and southern zones Wednesday afternoon. It is in these areas where convection may try to organize a bit more as it develops eastward and encounters plenty of instability. The deep-layer shear is on the marginal side (strongest shear to our northwest) as are the mid level lapse rates, however a hot boundary layer will result in steep low-level lapse rates. The combination of the steep low-level lapse rates and any stronger convective cores, locally strong to damaging winds (downbursts) will be possible. Due to the lower shear convection may struggle to organize, however given the hot air mass in place some linear or small clustering could develop from about the Philadelphia metro on south and eastward late in the afternoon and evening. The coverage of stronger convection is of lower confidence, however given the lower shear values the severe thunderstorm risk looks isolated. General rainfall totals are 0.10- 0.50 inches, however given precipitable water values of 1.5-2.0 inches, localized higher amounts are quite possible with any stronger showers or thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms should end by late Wednesday evening, with some showers lingering in the wake of the cold front. KEY MESSAGE 3...Significantly cooler temperatures and showers for the end of this week and the holiday weekend. A cold front is forecast to settle and then stall to our south Thursday and into the holiday weekend. Some ripples of energy ride along and north of it and this looks to bring some rounds of showers to our region. A more organized surface low well to our west may provide an increase in showers or a period of rain later Friday and Saturday. The precipitation may become enhanced some as surface high pressure to our northeast wedges southwestward into our area creating some cool air damming. This will all result in much cooler temperatures Thursday through Saturday, then some warming should take place Sunday and into Memorial Day. The pattern looks active though and therefore some additional showers are quite possible right into Memorial Day. While not great timing, our region needs rain as a long-term drought continues. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...VFR. A few showers or a TSTM possible thru 02Z for KTTN or KMIV. Southwest winds 5-10 knots, becoming locally light and variable. Moderate confidence. Wednesday...VFR overall with increasing clouds during the day. Some showers and thunderstorms arrive later in the afternoon and evening with areas of sub-VFR conditions. Locally gusty winds possible with a stronger thunderstorm. Southwest winds increasing to 10-15 knots with some gusts to 20 knots. Low confidence on timing details. Outlook... Thursday...A period of sub-VFR conditions with some showers. Friday through Sunday...Periods of sub-VFR conditions with showers at times, especially late Friday and Saturday. && .MARINE... Southerly winds will be gusty, to 20 knots, through Wednesday, however a hot air mass over the chilly ocean water is resulting in a very strong inversion just about the surface. This is limiting the vertical mixing. While seas in the southerly flow could build to 5 feet through Wednesday, it is very marginal and therefore the Small Craft Advisory was cancelled. There is the potential for isolated gusty thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday evening. Outlook... Thursday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Friday and Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions should occur. Sunday...Seas may linger around 5 feet, otherwise the conditions should be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Rip Currents... On Wednesday, south to southwest winds will range from 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. There will be a southeast swell with a period around 6 seconds. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for the Jersey Shore and a LOW risk for Delaware Beaches. On Thursday, winds become northeast 10 to 15 mph at the Jersey Shore in Monmouth County, and 15 to 20 mph at the rest of the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches. There will be a southerly swell with a period around 6 seconds. Breaking waves will be 1 to 3 feet. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore in Monmouth County and a MODERATE risk for the rest of the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. Surface temperatures inland will be in the 90s again on Wednesday, temperatures along the coasts will mainly be in the 70s to near 80 due to ocean temperatures in the 50s. These cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .CLIMATE... Some record breaking temperatures are forecast through Wednesday. High temperatures today and low temperatures Wednesday morning could challenge monthly all time records for May. Records for our climate sites are listed below: Monthly Record High Temperatures for May Site Record/Date Allentown (ABE) 97/May 19, 1962 AC Airport (ACY) 99/May 29, 1969 AC Marina (55N) 95/May 31, 1895 & May 23, 1925 Georgetown (GED) 98/May 28, 1991 Mount Pocono (MPO) 94/May 22, 1911 Philadelphia (PHL) 97/May 30 & 31, 1991 Reading (RDG) 97/May 20, 1996 Trenton (TTN) 99/May 23, 1911 & May 31, 1986 Wilmington (ILG) 98/May 10, 1895 & May 30, 1895 Monthly Record Warmest Low Temperatures for May Site Record/Date Allentown (ABE) 71/May 31, 1975, May 28 & 31, 1991 AC Airport (ACY) 73/May 24, 2004 & May 19, 2017 AC Marina (55N) 73/May 30 & 31, 1987, & May 31, 1991 Georgetown (GED) 74/May 23, 1953 & May 20, 2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 68/May 21, 1996 Philadelphia (PHL) 78/May 31, 1895 Reading (RDG) 72/May 28 & 31, 1939, & May 31, 1991 Trenton (TTN) 75/May 31, 1895 Wilmington (ILG) 75/May 30, 1895 Record High Temperatures May 19 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 97/1962 AC Airport (ACY) 96/1962 AC Marina (55N) 92/1998 Georgetown (GED) 96/1962 Mount Pocono (MPO) 89/1962 Philadelphia (PHL) 96/1962 (new record today) Reading (RDG) 96/1962 (new record today) Trenton (TTN) 96/1962 (record tied today) Wilmington (ILG) 95/1962 (new record today) Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 19 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 65/2017 AC Airport (ACY) 73/2017 AC Marina (55N) 68/1998 Georgetown (GED) 73/2017 Mount Pocono (MPO) 60/1943 Philadelphia (PHL) 74/1877 Reading (RDG) 68/1962 Trenton (TTN) 70/2017 Wilmington (ILG) 70/2017 Record High Temperatures May 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 92/1962 & 1996 AC Airport (ACY) 96/1996 AC Marina (55N) 93/1996 Georgetown (GED) 95/1962 Mount Pocono (MPO) 89/1996 Philadelphia (PHL) 94/1962 & 1996 Reading (RDG) 97/1996 Trenton (TTN) 94/1996 Wilmington (ILG) 96/1996 Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 66/2019 AC Airport (ACY) 68/1996 AC Marina (55N) 69/1996 Georgetown (GED) 74/2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 61/1959 Philadelphia (PHL) 71/2019 Reading (RDG) 69/1959 & 1996 Trenton (TTN) 68/1903, 1959, & 1962 Wilmington (ILG) 70/2019 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ060>062-070-071- 101>106. NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ007>010-012-013- 015-017>020-027. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ012>021- 026-027. DE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gorse AVIATION...Gorse/PO MARINE...AKL/Gorse/MPS  652 FXUS62 KCAE 200044 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 844 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A cold air damming setup may bring cooler temperatures than previously forecast to northern portions of the forecast area on Friday and possibly Saturday. Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAF. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Above normal temperatures likely into this weekend. - 2. Rain chances increase late week onward. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Above normal temperatures likely into this weekend. The only significant change to the temperatures this week is that it is looking increasingly likely that high pressure in the Northeast will push a CAD/wedge boundary down into the Mid- Atlantic States and possibly into the northern forecast area for Friday. That could bring temperatures down cooler than previously expected, at least for the northern FA. If the wedge boundary does linger around for longer than models show (as typical) then we could see those cooler temps stick around for Saturday. So the current temperature forecast for the northern FA this Saturday is uncertain. Other than that expect, above normal temperatures but lower than any Heat WWA thresholds. Key Message 2: Rain chances increase late week onward. A slight shift eastward in ridging is expected late this week. This should lead to increased moisture over the Southeast from Thursday through Memorial Day as stronger southerly flow develops. There remains a large spread in atmospheric moisture between the Euro and other global ensembles. EC mean PWAT values are projected to be in the 97.5 to 99th percentile for much of the long holiday weekend, while the NAEFS keep the deepest moisture further north and west with stronger ridging. IVT remains near climatological normal through the period in both cases. The most agreement for deeper moisture between all ensembles seems to be late Friday and Saturday as a wedge boundary drops into the Mid-Atlantic States and possibly into the northern forecast area. This looks to be the highest chance of rain in the extended with the main focus to the north closer to the front. However with limited moisture transport and at least weak ridging QPF amounts should be light, generally around or less than 0.25 inches from Fri to Sat. On average, heights increase through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week indicating some potential for convective suppression despite PWAT values remaining slightly above normal. Blended model guidance has been consistently aggressive despite shallower moisture and a set up more indicative of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The wind field remains weak from late week to early next week so the potential for anything more than an isolated downburst is low. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions expected to continue overnight before another round of stratus and/or fog will be possible early Wednesday morning. Little change in air mass and skies have cleared once again this evening except for some cirrus clouds. Continued abundant low level moisture in place will keep the possibility of brief predawn fog/stratus. OGB is most favored for restrictions as much of the guidance is highlighting the Coastal Plain and eastern Midlands for fog/stratus development. Lower confidence moving westward so have included no restrictions at CAE/CUB and limited IFR/LIFR restrictions in a tempo group at AGS/DNL/OGB/AIK with prevailing MVFR vsbys at prone AGS/OGB after 08z-09z. Any restrictions should clear by 13-15z, giving way to mostly clear skies and light winds out of the south. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increased moisture may result in brief restrictions at the terminals due to low clouds and/or fog each day this week. Rain chances increase Thursday and into this weekend. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJR AVIATION...23  042 FXUS64 KOHX 200050 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 750 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 736 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Above normal temperatures with 80s to low 90s today, then mostly low 80s the rest of the week. - There are medium to high rain chances each day. There is only a very low severe weather threat this evening. - There is a high chance for at least 2 inches of rain by the weekend, and a minor risk for flash flooding. && .UPDATE... Issued at 736 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Afternoon showers and thunderstorms have diminished this evening across Middle TN. Most activity is over West TN and along the TN River. There remains a low chance (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe storms across portions of Middle TN. That said, the storm environment remains generally poor with weak shear, so expecting any storms to remain pulse like in nature. Through the overnight and into Wednesday morning, isolated to scattered storms will continue, with activity remaining sub-severe. Showers and general thunderstorms become more widespread Wednesday as a cold front begins to work further SE across the mid state. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1108 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Clouds associated with some thunderstorms are moving into the state this afternoon. This will end up being our possible severe threat into this evening, but it still does not look great. The severe threat is a slight risk, level 2 out of 5, but that risk level only covers a portion of the area. The remaining area along and west of I- 65 is under a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5). Things are still looking displaced, but looking at soundings, there is a marginal hail and wind threat around the Land Between The Lakes. Into Wednesday, the focus shifts away from severe weather and towards a flash flooding risk. PWATs continue to be anomalously high through the week, and there is potential for a situation where we get training cells over an area and see a large amount of precipitation as a result. This could result in some minor flooding in these areas. Confidence is increasing, but remains low, making this a medium impact, low probability outcome. We will continue to monitor the QPF over the coming days but use caution this week in areas that are prone to flooding. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1108 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The cold front will slowly pass through Middle Tennessee into Wednesday night, and is expected to stall out just to our south in northern Mississippi and Alabama. This will lead to another higher rain chance south of I-40 Thursday afternoon and evening. PWATs will remain on the higher side through the forecast period, and probabilities of greater than 2 inches of rain by the end of the weekend are still around that 50-70% range. Total QPF has gone up for the forecast period since yesterday, so we will continue to monitor the situation. Temperatures will drop a little after the front to the upper 70s and low 80s, but that's about it for the remainder of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Have made some adjustments to the TAF this period revolving around low confidence scattered storms over the next 24 hours. Biggest adjustments were at CKV regarding storms this evening and again tomorrow morning. Lower cats expected to settle into mid-state terminals tomorrow afternoon with MVFR first (~20-21Z) then IFR after 00z (30-hr BNA TAF, but heads up for other terminals). Winds will be light (less than 10 kts) throughout, but shift to the north tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 68 83 64 81 / 50 90 60 80 Clarksville 67 79 62 78 / 80 100 50 60 Crossville 64 82 61 79 / 20 80 50 90 Columbia 67 82 63 81 / 30 80 50 90 Cookeville 66 83 63 79 / 20 90 50 90 Jamestown 64 84 61 79 / 20 90 50 90 Lawrenceburg 67 82 63 80 / 20 90 50 80 Murfreesboro 68 84 63 82 / 20 80 60 90 Waverly 67 80 63 79 / 80 90 40 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Cravens SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Unger  377 FXUS61 KLWX 200059 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 859 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Earlier showers and thunderstorms have largely diminished. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Record heat continues through Wednesday. A strong cold front brings widespread strong to severe thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon and evening. - Conditions remain showery and cool Thursday into early next week, bringing much needed rain to the region. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record heat continues through Wednesday. A strong cold front brings widespread strong to severe thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon and evening. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Showers and thunderstorms that ignited along a leeside trough earlier have pretty much diminished, though a couple rogue pop up showers or sprinkles remain possible from Annapolis MD west to Franklin WV including the DC metro and north-central VA into the Shenandoah Valley until about 10 PM or so. Overnight low temperatures will be rather warm in the 60s and 70s. A lee-side trof will develop Wed afternoon well ahead of a strong cold front expected to move through the area late Wed night. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms Wed afternoon into the early evening with a threat of mainly downburst winds given very hot and unstable air mass. Believe there will be enough coverage of severe thunderstorms for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to be issued. Convection should start to wane after 9 PM, but showers could linger well into the overnight as cdfnt crosses the area. KEY MESSAGE 2...Conditions remain showery and cool Thursday into early next week, bringing much needed rain to the region. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The synoptic scale pattern will remain relatively stagnant through the long term period, with weak upper troughing off to our west over the Ohio Valley, and surface high pressure off to our north and northeast. This will lead to a pattern where marine influence low- level easterly flow is nearly continuously overrun by south to southwesterly flow aloft. This persistent warm advection regime aloft atop stable low-level air will lead to cloudy skies with on and off showers Thursday through Monday. This will bring much needed, beneficial rains to the forecast area, with ensemble means showing around one to two inches of rain across much of the forecast area during that time. Highs Thursday will take a 25 to 30 degree dive behind the front with many locations struggling to push 70 degrees. Temperatures will continue to run below normal on Friday, struggling to make it into the 60s. Ensemble guidance shows much larger spread in temperatures Saturday through Monday, with some solutions keeping us locked into low cloud cover and temperatures in the 50s/60s, while some other solutions try to break us out of the low clouds, causing temperatures to climb into the 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Removed any precip mention from the TAFs through Wednesday morning. Made a broad attempt to slightly consolidate the timing of convection in the inherited PROB30s for Wednesday afternoon and evening, though the potential for multiple rounds and timing inconsistencies among the latest guidance make that a difficult task. Details should become clearer later tonight into Wednesday morning in terms of timing/placement of one or more rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Lower CIGs are possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the parent cold front drifts through, shifting winds from W/SW to NW. Periodic rain showers moving through the region on Thursday afternoon and evening bring additional sub-VFR periods at terminals. Wind gusts could reach 15-20 knots on Thursday before gradually decreasing. Sub-VFR conditions appear likely on Friday and Saturday in association with low clouds and showers. Winds will generally be out of the east to southeast on both Friday and Saturday. && .MARINE... Winds should gradually taper overnight, with gustiness lingering longest over the wider waters off southern MD. Winds near SCA levels in south to southwesterly flow on Wednesday, and then again in northerly flow on Thursday. SMWs appear possible Wednesday into Wednesday night as thunderstorms move over the waters. East to southeasterly winds may near low-end SCA levels late Thursday through Saturday. && .CLIMATE... Here are some daily temperature records during the May 19-20, 2026 timeframe: A '+' sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record. A '!' sign indicates the record is forecast to be tied or broken. ***TUESDAY, MAY 19TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 96F (1997)+ 72F (2015)! Washington-Dulles (IAD) 92F (1997)+! 66F (2017)+! Baltimore (BWI) 98F (1962) 75F (1877) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 98F (1962) 78F (1962) Martinsburg (MRB) 98F (1911) 69F (1996)! Charlottesville (CHO) 97F (1962) 72F (1997) Annapolis (NAK) 96F (1962) 71F (1911)! Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1996) 69F (2017)+! ***WEDNESDAY, MAY 20TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 96F (1996) 73F (2019) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F (1996) 69F (2019) Baltimore (BWI) 95F (1962) 71F (2019)+ Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 97F (1962) 74F (1998)+ Martinsburg (MRB) 97F (1911) 70F (1998) Charlottesville (CHO) 96F (1996) 73F (1996) Annapolis (NAK) 98F (1997) 76F (1898) Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1996) 66F (1998) && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ530>534- 537>543. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ534-543. && $$ DISCUSSION...LFR/DHOF AVIATION...LFR/DHOF MARINE...LFR/DHOF