777 FXUS63 KMQT 192300 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 700 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler than normal temperatures through the rest of the work week. Frost is possible the next few nights. - A dry work week is followed up by light rain this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The ~1003 mb low pressure analyzed northeast of Lake Superior this afternoon continues departing to Quebec by tonight, forcing the associated cold front the rest of the way across the UP by this evening. High pressure and dry air building in from the west behind this front set up a quiet pattern for the remainder of the work week as it slides over the Great Lakes region. Precipitation does not return until this weekend as a trough over the Plains pivots northeast over the region. Details around this are murky, but impacts likely will be low as instability is nil and probabilities of exceeding 0.5 inches of rain in 24 hours holds at 10% of less. Drier and warmer weather is progged to return early next week with high pressure possibly returning. This quieter period is captured in the CPC precipitation outlooks with near normal for the 6-10 day and slightly below normal for the 8-14 day. Temps in the 60s to low 70s have been observed ahead of the cold front this afternoon, but this quickly will be replaced by 40s post fropa aside for parts of the south-central that linger in the 50s to low 60s for longer this afternoon/evening. Despite zonal flow developing aloft by Wednesday afternoon, low level CAA into Wednesday yields temps between 5-15F below normal. Lows in the 30s to low 40s tonight will only warm into the 40s to mid 50s for most on Wednesday, save for a few spots reaching low 60s south-central. Temps dip even lower Wednesday night into the upper 20s to upper 30s. While it is still early for growing season, some patchy frost is possible tonight and widespread frost is anticipated Wednesday night. A ridge over the southeast CONUS begins to build late week while a trough deepens over the Rockies. This strengthens southerly flow and WAA increasing temps closer to normal by this weekend with highs in the 50s and 60s and lows in the 40s to low 50s. Patchy frost is possible again Thursday night, but no headlines are planned yet this week given slow start to growing season. In the wake of the weekend system, a strong mid level ridge looks to build over the Midwest, favoring the warming trend to continue into next week. CPC temperature outlooks both show the UP under ~65-70% chances for above normal temps to close out the month. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 700 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 As cold air advection continues over the terminals through the overnight hours, expect a gradual improvement over the next 24 hours from MVFR to VFR, with the lake effect cloud cover eroding first over IWD this evening as they get back to VFR conditions here around 1 to 2z. As for CMX and SAW, they are looking to bounce around from high-end MVFR to low-end VFR conditions tonight as the lake effect cloud cover move in and out of the area. However, with high pressure ridging moving in on Wednesday, expect the terminals to clear out after 12z. The gusty NW winds early this evening quiet down a tad through the overnight hours, before weakening even more on Wednesday as the high pressure ridge moves in. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Pressure rises and cold air filtering over the lake support west to northwest winds of 20-30 kts into tonight over the east. Winds hold around 20 kts or less this afternoon in the west, remaining below 20 kts after this evening. Winds over the east settle below 20 kts Wednesday morning and likely remain sub-20 kts across the lake through Friday as high pressure persists over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada. Significant wave heights of 4-6 ft over the east hold through tonight, then settle below 4 ft by Wednesday afternoon and likely remain 4 ft or less the remainder of the forecast period. This light wind pattern may even persist into next week with no significant systems on the horizon this weekend and high pressure favored to return next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...77 AVIATION...TAP MARINE...77  680 FXUS65 KVEF 192300 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 400 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A warming trend will result in above normal temperatures for the upcoming Memorial Day Weekend. * Much uncertainty exists into next week as a series of Western U.S. storm systems interact with one another. && .DISCUSSION... Another day of unseasonably mild temperatures is on deck in the wake of Sunday's powerful storm system and cold front. Lingering north/northwest flow will continue to promote breezy conditions on area lakes, especially across the Colorado River Valley the remainder of today and again tomorrow. This may promote choppy conditions for boaters. Winds should gradually improve from Thursday into the weekend. Elsewhere, the main concern will be rising temperatures from the latter half of the week into the weekend. Temperatures should climb to near normal by tomorrow, then increase to around 5-10 degrees above normal from Thursday through the upcoming holiday weekend. This will result in several days of Moderate Heat Risk namely across Death Valley and the Colorado River Valley region. While this is not the highest category of Heat Risk, it still represents a threat, especially for those not acclimated to desert weather conditions, and with the abundance of outdoor recreation expected over the coming weekend. Folks are urged to follow heat safety recommendations if planning on being outdoors this weekend. As we enter next week, ensembles paint a very uncertain picture as to exactly how the upper air pattern will evolve. There is relatively high confidence in the presence of an upper trough somewhere across the Pacific Northwest and a weaker upper low off the California Coast. However, there remains considerable disagreement on the exact placement and intensity of these features, which is very relevant on how they may interact with one another and impact local weather. While confidence is moderate in the continuation of warm to hot conditions, there is also a low probability of increasing winds and potentially some precipitation, mainly over the higher terrain. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Winds early in the forecast period will remain elevated, around 8-10KT, though will be variable between roughly 300- 030 true. Mid- to late evening, winds settle out of the northwest, dropping to around 5-10KT, before veering to the northeast by late Tuesday morning. Winds thereafter will remain around 8KT or less, gradually veering to the southeast through the afternoon and becoming variable after sunset. VFR conditions will continue with a few high clouds around 25kft expected to move into the area Tuesday evening. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Elevated northerly to northeasterly winds will continue diminishing through the evening, with terrain-enhanced gusts to 25-30KT expected to continue along the Lower Colorado River Valley from KIFP to KEED for the first couple hours of the forecast period before decreasing. Overnight, winds areawide will drop to around 5-10KT, with gusty northerly winds returning by mid-morning at KIFP and KEED, with gusts expected to top out around 25KT through mid- afternoon. Elsewhere, winds will generally remain under 10KT. VFR conditions prevail areawide, with bands of high clouds around 25kft across southern areas this evening, and increasing mid-level and high clouds from the north late in the period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Austin AVIATION...Phillipson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  892 FXUS63 KLSX 192302 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 602 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Today's cold front will bring in cooler and drier weather for the next few days. - Rain chances increase again late this week into this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Wednesday Night) Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front is slowly pushing southeast through the region this afternoon. While a humid airmass still exists ahead of the front, extensive cloud cover and light rain streaming across the area as blow off from convection over Arkansas has really put a damper on solar heating, reducing the chances for additional thunderstorm development on the front as it moves through our area this afternoon. Most of us will just see clouds and light rain with perhaps a stray rumble of thunder through the evening. Better chances of thunderstorm development will be focused closer to the Ohio River Valley. As the front moves through, winds will shift to the northwest and our temperature and dewpoint drop into the 50s. This will be a noticeable change from our early season warm and humid air mass we've felt for the last few days. Extensive low level cloud cover behind the front lasts at least through the night tonight, ensuring we only bottom out in the 50s for most due to the cold advection and lack of additional radiational cooling. If thick clouds linger through the day tomorrow, then highs will struggle to make it out of the 50s, but if we get more sun we could make a run at 70. Current NBM forecast is on the higher end and represents expectations if clouds break up a bit more, while the MAV and MET both suggest more widespread upper 50s to low 60s, below the 10th percentile of NBM guidance. Kimble && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Tuesday) Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The mid level flow pattern across the continent will increasingly feature some variation of troughing in the West and ridging over the Southeast US coast. This puts our area in southwesterly mid level flow steering subtle disturbances through the center of the country. At the surface, strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes will maintain its influence locally, with easterly low level winds and warm sector heat and humidity staying largely south of our region. Thus while we see rain chances increasing late Thursday into Friday and continuing on and off through the weekend, this will by in large be showers and elevated thunderstorms with a minimal severe weather risk considering the lack of access locally to the richer low level moisture flowing off the Gulf. Greater confidence is with the Thursday-Friday time frame as an initial trough moves northeast through the flow. After that, guidance varies more considerably on how to handle the remaining trough with some maintaining a more robust cut off low over the Southern Plains which keeps us in the line of fire for additional disturbances through the weekend while others transition towards northwest flow. Latest NBM continues rain chances through this weekend which is warranted, but our confidence is lower on the timing and location of these rounds of rain. Regarding temperatures, NBM continues to occupy the top spot among all of guidance for maximum temperatures this weekend. Its spring bias correction is dominating the physical forecast. For high temperatures, modeled temperatures aloft are a first stop for any forecast. This weekend among the long range ensemble guidance there's fairly good agreement that 925MB temperatures will be in the 16-18C Friday through Sunday with an IQR of only 2 to 3C. Assuming strong mixing to the surface, which can be expected on a sunny May day, high temperatures would top out in the low to mid 70s. But strong mixing isn't a given. As noted in the prior paragraph, subtle disturbances in the southwesterly flow may bring additional rounds of clouds and showers this weekend, and if that occurs we would not expect full mixing. So while the official forecast has temperatures drifting well into the 80s for the holiday weekend, we have low confidence in this and strong reason to suspect below normal temperatures continuing. Kimble && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening) Issued at 551 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front has finally pushed through all terminals with northwesterly surface winds drawing drier air into the region. Aside from KUIN, where improvement continues in the first couple hours of the TAF period, the remainder of the terminals will dip into a long period of MVFR with brief bouts of IFR. Precipitation chances continue to decrease with an isolate shower possible. Chances are <20% and only continue to decrease in time. Improvement will be gradual Wednesday with VFR favored to expand from north to south from late-morning through afternoon. Maples && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  933 FXUS63 KMPX 192303 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 603 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of frost overnight, especially across western and central Minnesota. - Seasonably cool & dry weather persists through mid-week. - Shower & thunderstorm chances return Friday through the Memorial Day weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Current observations highlight spotty sprinkles/drizzle thanks to the lingering stratus deck. High temperatures will top out in the low to mid 50s with northwest winds gusting to 25 mph. It will feel much closer to late March than late May. Skies will gradually break up this through the evening with clearing skies likely overnight as a surface high pressure moves in. Northwest winds will turn light and variable overnight. The combination of light winds and mostly clear skies should allow our temperatures to fall into the low to mid 30s across much of western and central Minnesota. A Frost Advisory goes in effect tonight through early Wednesday morning given the likelihood of areas of frost across western and central MN. What about a Freeze Warning if my low temperature is 30? Sub- freezing temperatures are possible tonight, especially across central MN, but the residence time below freezing shouldn't be long enough to experience a proper freeze. This is why we went with a Frost Advisory versus a Freeze Warning. Temperatures should remain a few degrees warmer across E/S MN and W WI, helping prevent any meaningful frost formation. Temperatures rebound into the mid to upper 60s on Thursday as southeasterly winds set up in the return flow across the Upper Midwest. Our attention then turns to the holiday weekend. Our next chance for any meaningful precipitation arrives Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Precipitation is tied to a shortwave tracking along the US- CAN border. While there could be some embedded thunderstorms with this system, the general pattern doesn't appear favorable for meaningful severe weather chances. The remainder of Memorial Day weekend should be pleasant. Temperatures rebound into the 80s Sunday and Monday with limited precipitation chances. Guidance solutions remain varied with precipitation chances Sunday/Monday, but nothing that would imply a washout or even a disruption to outdoor plans. Warmer, Summer-like temperatures will stick around for the first half of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 603 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Winds will calm and skies will clear as high pressure moves overhead tonight. We will see northwest winds with a few gusts up around 20 knots this evening before light and variable overnight into tomorrow morning. Once winds pick back up late tomorrow as the high moves out winds will be light from the S to SE. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15kts FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15kts. SAT...Chance MVFR/-RA early. Wind SW 10-15kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for Benton- Brown-Chippewa-Chisago-Douglas-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi- Lac Qui Parle-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet- Pope-Redwood-Renville-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Stevens- Swift-Todd-Wright-Yellow Medicine. WI...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for Barron-Polk- Rusk. && $$ DISCUSSION...BPH AVIATION...NDC  965 FXUS63 KUNR 192304 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 504 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold again Wednesday morning, but gradually warming up towards the weekend. - Isolated chances for precipitation mid-week, better chances late Thursday into Friday. - Much warmer temperatures settle in over the weekend into next week. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 125 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Current upper air models show the upper trough axis east of the forecast area this afternoon, with west northwest flow over the region. 19Z surface analysis depicts high pressure over Wyoming, weak surface trough over central MT. Satellite shows widespread CU across the forecast area, with little vertical extent. Temperatures currently sit in the 40s to mid 50s with light winds predominantly out of the northwest. Brief shortwave ridge settles in Wednesday into Thursday, prompting a slow warming trend with mostly dry conditions. Weak surface trough in MT passes through Wednesday. This forcing may spark some isolated to showers/storms but no significant QPF is expected through the first half of Thursday. As ridge shifts eastward, troughing once again slides across the Rockies and into the northern and central plains. Synoptic forcing will prompt widespread precipitation the latter half of Thursday into Friday. Current NBM probabilities for precip >= 0.25" has a wide swath of 60 to 80 percent over most of western SD, excluding far northwestern SD. Based off the current track of this system, highest QPF amounts are expected in the Black Hills and southwestern SD Precipitation is expected to taper off from west to east later Friday, and upper ridge slowly builds over the weekend. Expect highs to jump into the 70s and 80s by Saturday, and stick around through the forecast period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Wednesday Evening) Issued At 502 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions expected through most the forecast period. The exception will be south central SD Wed. MVFR cigs will move into the area there as an impulse skirts the region. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Frost Advisory from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ Wednesday for SDZ002-012>014-027-030>032-041>044- 046-047-049-073-075>078. WY...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for WYZ055-056- 058>060. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye AVIATION...JC  134 FXUS63 KABR 192307 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 607 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost/freeze expected early Wednesday morning across the region as lows drop into the upper 20s to low 30s. - Rainfall chances increase to 60-70% on Friday. Amounts generally between 0.25-0.75in and very limited threat for severe storms. - Turning warmer late weekend/early next week, about 10 to 20 degrees above normal with highs in the 80s to near 90. && .UPDATE... Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The forecast remains on track this evening. No major changes are planned. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Plenty of stratocumulus clouds remain across the CWA this afternoon, but with high pressure and drier air working into the region into this evening, expect gradual clearing from west to east. Winds will also become light and variable this evening before switching to the south-southeast late tonight. Rather good radiational cooling conditions setting up tonight, especially over the eastern CWA. Expecting temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to low 30s across most of the CWA, so will therefore stick with the frost/freeze headlines. Frost advisories were buffered around the original Freeze Warning. On Wednesday, surface high moves east into MN while a surface trough takes shape over eastern MT and WY. This will tighten the pressure gradient across SD, especially central SD where southerly winds are likely to gust between 30 and 40 mph by late morning. Don't see a need for an advisory at this point as even NBM90 wind gusts are below 45 mph. Focus then shifts to the approaching upper trough and associated surface trough/low that moves into the region Thursday night through Friday. Models starting to come into better agreement with increasing chances (60-70%) for rainfall across the region. Instability looks somewhat limited though and SPC outlook, as well as ML outlooks don't highlight any severe storm potential over the Northern Plains. As for rainfall amounts, NBM mean-75th spreads in a 48-hr time frame ending at 12Z Saturday generally range from around 0.30in to 0.75in. Warming trend still showing up in the models towards the latter half of the weekend into early next week as Grand Ensemble 850mb temps increase to around +15C to +18C across the CWA during this time. Inherited NBM high temps are in the 80s Sunday through at least Tuesday of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday afternoon. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Frost Advisory from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ Wednesday for SDZ003-015-033-045-048. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for SDZ004>011- 016>023-034>037-051. MN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ039-046. && $$ UPDATE...20 DISCUSSION...TMT AVIATION...20  071 FXUS63 KARX 192306 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 606 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Colder than normal temperatures expected for the next 3 nights with temperatures ranging from the mid-30s to mid-40s. There might be patchy areas of frost in central and north-central Wisconsin nightly. - Periodic showers and storms from Friday night through Sunday. - Warmer than normal temperatures for early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 117 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 This Afternoon and Evening A shortwave trough will move east through the area this afternoon and evening. The low level moisture gradually wanes during this time in the wake of a cold front that moved through the area this morning. There is just enough lift and instability to favor some sprinkles or virga for late this afternoon and early evening. Tonight The subsidence in the wake of the shortwave trough will cause skies to gradually clear overnight. With northwest winds remaining in the 5 to 10 mph range, there should be enough mixing in boundary layer to keep temperatures from bottoming out. As a result, expecting to see low temperatures ranging from the mid-30s to mid-40s. These temperatures are close to the 25th percentile NBM. Since the temperatures in the mid-30s were not widespread, opted not issuing a Frost Advisory for tonight. Wednesday Night Another shortwave trough will approach the area from the Central Plains. As it approaches, mid- and high clouds will move into the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Like tonight, the east winds will be in the 5 to 10 mph range. As a result, low temperatures will range from the upper 30s to mid-40s. While temperatures will be cooler than normal, temperatures will be just warm enough that frost does not look to be a concern. Friday into the Weekend Two northern shortwave troughs will move northeast through the Upper Mississippi River Valley. The first shortwave trough will move through on Friday night and Saturday. The second shortwave trough will move through the area from Saturday night. Each of these systems will bring showers and storms to the region. With instabilities and shear being weak, not expecting to see organized severe weather. Early Next Week There is general consensus that a strong upper level ridge will likely build across the Upper Mississippi River Valley, Great Lakes, Northern/Central Plains, and Canadian Prairie Provinces. This should result in warmer than normal temperatures for our area. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 605 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR to VFR conditions currently present across the region with gusty northwest winds. MVFR clouds will continue to scatter out over the coming hours with VFR conditions expected to persist for the remainder of the period. Gusts will gradually diminish with speeds at or below 10 kts through tomorrow afternoon. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Boyne AVIATION...Barendse  081 FXUS64 KMEG 192306 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 606 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase into this evening, with a Marginal Risk for damaging winds. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist daily into the upcoming Memorial Day weekend. - Past Tuesday, temperatures will be near normal with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the 60s. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 12Z upper air analysis shows an upper-level ridge centered over the Carolinas and a longwave upper-level trough stretching from western Ontario back through Baja California. Late morning surface analysis places a cold front from Lake Superior back to western portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains. Regional WSR-88D radar trends over the past few hours continue to show weakening of last night's convection over the western half of Arkansas. Clouds increased along and west of the Mississippi River with noon temperatures in the middle to upper 80s. The aforementioned remnant convection is continuing to weaken as it moves toward the Mid-South and a few showers have developed over the past few hours. Latest mesoanalysis yields surface-based CAPE values around 3000 J/kg, weak mid-level lapse rates, little if any shear, and precipitable water values just above the 90th percentile for late May. (1.7 inches) This parameter space suggests a messy, pulse-type convective mode can be expected into this evening with damaging winds being the primary threat with a few storms. High freezing levels will limit the overall hail size with any stronger storms. Confidence remains low for any organized convective threat. Little has changed from previous model runs as the weak cold front will stall out across the Lower Mississippi Valley through Thursday. This will bring a continued chance for showers and thunderstorms both days but overall instability will be less favorable for strong to severe thunderstorm development. Long term model trends indicate the front will retreat back north as a warm front Friday as an open wave trough moves into the Southern Plains. This will bring continued chances for showers and thunderstorms into the Memorial Day weekend and near normal temperatures for late May. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A tricky TAF set remains in this issuance, ahead of a cold front and surface low. These features will bring off and on -TSRA and - SHRA over the next 30 hours. CAMs tend to struggle with this summertime-like pattern, especially with thunderstorms, therefore PROB30 seemed to be the best way to handle the situation. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the early evening hours before the surface low tracks in MVFR and intermittent IFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds will be light and variable through the late morning hours before shifting north/northeast behind the aforementioned cold front. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future, with minimum relative humidity values remaining above 40%. Shower and thunderstorms are expected each day, especially during peak heating, lasting into the upcoming Memorial Day weekend. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...AEH  053 FXUS64 KMRX 192305 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 705 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 131 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 - Very warm temperatures continue for Wednesday with highs roughly 10 degrees above normal. - Scattered to numerous showers and storms return for Wednesday, with continued high rain chances through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 131 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Scattered to isolated showers have popped up this afternoon across Middle TN, but so far the cap has suppressed convective development in our area. Some of the activity to our west could reach our Plateau counties in the next few hours, but coverage should remain isolated. Can't rule out a few short-lived pop-up showers in our mountain zones along the TN/NC border. Convective activity will be greater on Wednesday as the Gulf opens up a bit more and provides some moisture around 850 mb. We will still have a dry layer above that, which will limit coverage and development through dry air entrainment. Shear appear quite weak too, so convection should be short-lived, and the severe threat looks low. Areas along and west of I-75 should have the greatest chance of showers/storms tomorrow, as convection is likely to develop in the Cumberland Plateau with a slow NE movement. PW values jump into the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range on Thursday as a 850 mb low moves into northern MS/AL, opening the Gulf for deep and persistent moisture advection. A boundary will extend from the low across the Plateau into SW VA, acting as a focus for convergence and convective development. PoPs will be categorical across the entire area, with a chance of thunderstorms. Instability and shear will be lacking for any organized severe threat, although some gusty downbursts winds and locally heavy rainfall will be possible. A warm, moist southerly flow will continue on Friday as another low pressure system crosses AR and lifts the aforementioned boundary farther north into KY. High PW values in an uncapped environment will again lead to categorical PoPs across the area in the afternoon. CAPE and shear appear a bit higher on Friday, mainly in our southern sections where clouds may scatter enough to enhance afternoon heating, so we will need to keep an eye on the potential for some severe storms as we get closer to Friday. A deep SW flow persists through the weekend and early next week, with broad troughing over the central US. Disturbances ejecting from this broad trough will bring several rounds of enhanced rain chances through early next week, but the timing of these disturbances remains highly uncertain. Overall, the pattern favors continued high rain chances each day. The primary impacts will be lightning and locally heavy rainfall. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 There will be scattered showers and thunderstorms around late in the period, and will have prob30 thunder groups all sites during the time when the probability looks highest. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the period all sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 89 66 86 / 0 60 40 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 89 66 84 / 0 40 20 90 Oak Ridge, TN 66 88 64 84 / 0 50 30 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 88 63 82 / 0 30 60 100 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...DGS AVIATION...99  106 FXUS65 KRIW 192307 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 507 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A clear sky allows low temperatures Tuesday night to fall into the 20s for many lower elevation locations. While it will be warmer Wednesday, high temperatures remain below normal. - Precipitation arrives from the northwest late Wednesday night and becomes widespread Thursday. Cooler temperatures by Thursday evening could lead to a period of light snow in upslope-favored areas around Lander and Beaver Rim. - Forecast trends continue to favor widespread high temperatures in the 70s to mid 80s for the three-day Memorial Day holiday weekend. Other than a few late day showers, conditions look dry each day. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1234 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Snow from yesterday is clear on satellite today, with a large portion of central and southern areas white. Melting will occur through the next couple days as daytime highs slowly increase. However, temperatures do remain on the cool side the next few days. As a result, Freeze Warnings are once again in effect for portions of the area that have seen an early start to the growing season. Lows tonight should be in the upper-20s to low-30s east of the Divide, where the warnings currently are. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Areas of clouds still linger over central and southern portions of the CWA this morning, as expected. Low clouds have developed in the Upper Green River Basin, in the wake of the residual snow that fell through Monday evening. Low clouds/fog is also expected to develop near Pathfinder Reservoir in southern Natrona County as well as far eastern Sweetwater County near Wamsutter and Creston Junction. These clouds are expected to last through mid-morning. Travelers on I-80 and US-189/191 should exercise caution due to the reduced visibility. Otherwise, clouds will continue to scatter out through the rest of the morning with partly cloudy skies by 18Z. There is a 20-30% chance for fog/low clouds to develop in the Wind River Basin and areas near Casper. Cumulus clouds will begin to develop over the western mountains after 18Z, with isolated virga showers possible over northern portions of Yellowstone NP, the Cody Foothills, Hoback Junction and Lander/Fort Washakie. Temperatures will be about 10 to 20 degrees below normal today, with sub-freezing temperatures expected again tonight for most areas except northern portions of the Bighorn Basin. The warming trend continues Wednesday, but temperatures stay below normal for central and southern portions of the CWA. Conditions will be dry for most areas, with showers possible over far northern portions irt the next storm system approaching the Cowboy State from the north. Precipitation chances will be confined to northwestern portions Wednesday night, with snow levels between 7000 and 8000 ft, as the storm drops southward. The associated cold front will drop southward over the CWA through the overnight hours, extending from Buffalo to Kemmerer by sunrise Thursday morning. The front will then slowly push through Natrona and Sweetwater counties through the rest of the day. Most of the precipitation with this storm will occur along and behind of the front, being widespread across the CWA through the day Thursday. Rain could change over to snow along and north of a Meeteetse-to-Lovell line after 15Z, as the cold core from the storm pushes into the Bighorn Basin. The challenge will be if snowfall rates will be heavy enough to overcome the high May sun angle. Otherwise, any snow is likely to stay in grassy areas through the day. There could be a similar change over later in the afternoon at Lander. Both of these locations (mainly Cody and Lander)will have a good upslope component with north- northeast winds. There could be a 3 to 5 hour window for snow accumulation between 23Z and 04Z (5pm to 10pm), as the sun begins to wane in the evening. A leeside low will develop over the Black Hills around this time, generating a line of showers and thunderstorms over western portions of SD and NE. Drier air will quickly push in over western portions of the CWA as the storm moves over the aforementioned areas through the rest of the night into Friday morning. Precipitation will quickly end from west to east after 03Z as a result of the storm becoming better organized over SD/NE. However, precipitation looks to linger over Johnson and Natrona counties through the rest of the night. Rain or a rain/snow mix is likely at this time, with snow levels as low as 6000 ft. Initial snowfall amounts around 6 inches are forecasted over the Absaroka and Wind River Mountains and 6 to 10 inches over the northern half of the Bighorns. Temperatures rebound more quickly on Friday, staying at or slightly below normal as the storm quickly exits over the Plains. A pleasant holiday weekend is shaping up, with highs in the 70s and 80s by Memorial Day. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 507 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR flight conditions are forecast through 00Z Thursday. Diurnal cloud cover is expected to diminish after sunset, with a mostly clear sky overnight. Mid-level cloud cover gradually increases across Wyoming on Wednesday afternoon ahead of an approaching weather system. Most terminals remain dry the entire TAF period, with rain chances increasing after 00Z Thursday. The exception terminal is KCOD, where there is a 30 percent chance of rain showers after 19Z on Wednesday. A brief period of reduced flight conditions cannot be completely ruled out in a heavier rain shower at KCOD Wednesday afternoon, but confidence is far too low at this time. Winds are forecast to remain 10 kts or less through the overnight hours, with KRIW seeing a brief period of wind above 10kts after 03Z. Winds are expected to increase to 10-15kts at most terminals after 18Z Wednesday. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for WYZ005-006-011-016>020. && $$ UPDATE...Wittmann DISCUSSION...LaVoie AVIATION...CNJ/Gerhardt  204 FXUS63 KIND 192308 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 708 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms and locally heavy rain possible again this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds and localized flooding the primary concerns - A Flood Watch is in effect from 3pm today to 2pm Wednesday. - Cooler mid week with a brief break from rain chances, before showers and storms return to the forecast late week into the holiday weekend && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Tuesday)... Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Today and Tonight - Satellite imagery shows cumulus developing as the boundary layer becomes destabilized (IND ACARS shows around 1500 J/Kg MLCAPE). As such, renewed convective activity appears likely again this afternoon. In fact, a few showers have already popped up near Columbus as of 2pm. In terms of hazards, RAP soundings indicate that some mid-level dry air may be present today. ACARS soundings from IND show the dry air and DCAPE values of 1100 J/Kg as of 2pm. This, combined with steep lapse rates and a LLJ around 30-40kt, could allow for downburst and efficient downward momentum transfer. About 25 knots of effective shear may also be enough to allow for loose organization into multicell clusters. Therefore, strong to damaging wind gusts are possible with storms today. The wind threat diminishes after sunset as the column moistens and lapse rates weaken slightly. RAP soundings show the atmosphere becoming more efficient for rainfall production overnight (deep warm cloud layer, saturation to the EL, and moist adiabatic lapse rates). A cold front sagging south across Indiana will interact with an MCV approaching from the southwest, prolonging large-scale lift tonight. Most guidance is on board with showers and thunderstorms continuing on and off through the night. There is a signal for heavy rain within most guidance with pockets of 1 to 3 inches across the southern half of our area. QPF coverage in guidance isn't as widespread as yesterday, but these pockets tend to line up where the heaviest rain fell. Additional flooding may be possible tonight and a Flood Watch has been issued for the southern half of our CWA. Wednesday through Monday - Once the front has pushed south of the area, it will stall out a bit, though high pressure passing through the Great Lakes in its wake will keep it suppressed to the south and allow for both a brief cooldown and a break in precip chances from late Wednesday into Thursday evening. Rain chances return late week into early next week as a large upper level low swings through the northern tier of the country and pulls a warmer and moist airmass back into the area, though chances with the exception of Friday will be low for the time being given significant model inconsistencies and resulting uncertainty. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 708 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Impacts: - Mainly VFR this evening - Scattered showers possible south into Wednesday - MVFR ceilings tonight into Wednesday, IFR visibility possible at BMG and IND. Discussion: A cold front is drifting south across Central Indiana early this evening. Showers and thunderstorms were mainly impacting the BMG area and were exiting the IND TAF area. Overnight the front will continue to push south of the TAf sites, but will remain close to IND and BMG. Given the recent rains and lighter winds expected near the front, fog will be possible overnight at those spots. Higher winds in the wake of the front over HUF and LAF should prevent fog leading to just MVFR cigs. On Wednesday, forecast soundings suggest pesky lower level moisture lingering across the area with some lower level (VFR) clouds through the day. HRRR suggests a stream of moisture still flowing across southern and southeastern Indiana on wednesday, that could lead to additional showers and storms, but confidence is too low at this time for specific timing. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for INZ052>055-060>064- 067>072. && $$ AVIATION...Puma DISCUSSION...Nield/Eckhoff  166 FXUS63 KJKL 192307 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 707 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and mainly dry weather will persist through this evening. - Shower and thunderstorms will become more prevalent tonight and Wednesday, with rain chances continuing through the upcoming holiday weekend. - The switch to an active and wetter pattern yields temperatures closer to normal readings, and is likely to provide at least temporary relief from developing and ongoing drought conditions. && .UPDATE... Issued at 707 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 Given ongoing convection located primarily in Whitley and Laurel counties, the main change to the forecast at this time was to increase hourly PoPs for the southwestern portion of our forecast area. Convective coverage is still expected to diminish around sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Other than that, temperatures and dewpoints were nudged and winds were adjusted to be more in line with current observations. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 400 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 One more hot and mostly sunny afternoon is underway across eastern Kentucky. Satellite imagery shows an extensive cumulus field across the area and radar shows some spotty convection near and west of the Pottsville Escarpment. Thermometers are also near record territory for this date, ranging in the mid 80s for most. The latest weather map shows the high pressure responsible for the hot and dry weather of recent days now departing off the East Coast, though still dominating over the southeast US. Meanwhile, an ~1004 mb surface low is situated northeast of Lake Superior while a cold front extends southward from the low across the Ozarks and Southern Plains. Aloft, an around 588 dam ridge remains over much of the Southeast CONUS. Upstream, a 500 hPa trough is passing through Central Canada and brushing the northern Plains while a trailing shortwave is situated over the Great Basin. Vorticity energy is streaming northeastward from the Western Gulf area and across the mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys in the southwest flow between these troughs and the Southeastern ridge. The northern stream trough will flatten and lift into eastern Canada through the short-term period along with the remnant Great Basin shortwave trailing as the ridging only slowly subsides over the Southeast CONUS. Meanwhile, the surface low will lift northeast toward Labrador while deepening ~990 mb. The low's trailing cold front will only slowly cross the Lower Ohio River late tonight and sag across eastern Kentucky during the day on Wednesday. Initially, upper level vort energy ejecting northeast from the Western Gulf coast should aid in the development of diurnally- driven scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening, primarily near and west of the Pottsville Escarpment though an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out further east. Renewed convective activity may impact locations near and north of I-64 Wednesday morning predawn as the boundary approaches our area. Ahead of this boundary, the 19/12z HREF shows 1000 to 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE building by afternoon with 20 to 30 kts of surface-500 hPa shear south of I-64 by Wednesday midday to afternoon. This may be sufficient for some cell organization, especially for convection that develops discretely or in clusters out ahead of the cold frontal boundary. SPC has included most of the area under a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Wednesday for an isolated hail or damaging wind threat. Cloud layer winds will tend to force cells that develop along the actual cold front to move back atop a more stable post-frontal environment, limiting overall extent and vigor of convection along thetrue surface boundary. While PWATs ahead of the boundary will rise to near or over 1.50 inches, progressive cell movement and dry antecedent conditions (Moderate to Extreme Drought) should preclude any notable hydro concerns outside any urban/poor drainage areas that get a quick inch or two of rain under the heaviest activity. For Wednesday night, shower activity, mainly light, is likely to linger as disturbances aloft continue to drift over the forecast area. In sensible terms, spotty shower and thunderstorm activity will continue through mid-evening, diminishing after sunset. Showers may develop again toward morning, especially near and north of I-64 and closer to central Kentucky. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the lower to middle 60s. Additional shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to spread in from the northwest on Wednesday with highs ranging in the upper 70s northwest of I-64 to the upper 80s in the deepest valleys near the KY-VA border. Showers linger Wednesday night while temperatures settle back into the lower 50s north of I-64 to the mid 60s near the KY- TN border. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 330 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 The forecast period begins with the region situated on the backside of a departing cold front. Although the boundary will be sagging southward, scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible across the area. Given marginal instability and weak kinematic profiles, severe weather is not anticipated, and activity should remain largely garden-variety. Ongoing precipitation and cloud cover will suppress daytime heating, keeping afternoon highs on the cooler side. Temperatures are forecast to reach the lower 70s across the northern portions of the area, while areas along the Tennessee border should top out in the upper 70s. Overnight lows for Thursday into Friday morning will remain mild as a quasi-stationary boundary begins to lift northward as a warm front, initiating a warming trend. This warm front will cross the region on Friday, serving as the catalyst for widespread showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. While marginal thermodynamic indices will once again favor pulse-type, non-severe convection, the primary hazard shifts toward heavy rainfall and high precipitation efficiency. This wet pattern will persist through the weekend as precipitable water values climb well above 1.50 inches within a deep moisture profile characterized by a skinny CAPE distribution. Furthermore, ECMWF Shift of Tails (SoT) values are progged to approach 0.8 on Friday before exceeding 0.8 Sunday into Monday. For context, a SoT greater than 0.8 is highly indicative of an unusual event relative to the climatological norm. As Fridays synoptic evolution locks the region into a pattern supportive of repeated training rounds of convection, this event may ultimately be classified as climatologically anomalous. An analysis of the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble systems reveals strong model consensus, with nearly all Total QPF members indicating that rainfall totals upwards of 3.00 inches are possible through Monday morning. The current deterministic forecast package projects widespread QPF amounts ranging from 2.00 inches in the Lake Cumberland area to 2.75 inches across northeastern portions of the forecast area. Locations along the West Virginia and Virginia borders will likely see lower totals due to local downsloping effects. Once the stalled boundary finally shifts eastward on Monday, another surface low is progged to develop and track northeastward into the area. This system will bring a secondary round of showers and storms, keeping the region wet through the remainder of the forecast period. As a side note, since the area is dry, heavy rainfall on top of moisture starved ground could create runoff issues leading to potential hydrologic issues. Ultimately, this period will highlight a distinct regime shift away from the persistent dry pattern observed over the last few weeks toward a much wetter synoptic setup. While the expected heavy rainfall will help reduce the current precipitation deficit, overall totals will still track below normal for this time of year. Due to persistent cloud cover and rain, daytime highs will remain capped in the upper 70s to lower 80s, while overnight lows drop into the lower to middle 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the daytime hours, but will deteriorate gradually from the northwest through the period with the approach of a cold front. Look for an extensive cumulus field this afternoon with PROB30 groups to account for the low potential of diurnally driven shower activity. Additional probabilities are noted later tonight and on Wednesday as the cold front nears. Winds will be the south to southwest at 6 to 13 kts again with some gusts of 15 to 20 kts for this afternoon, highest at KSYM and KIOB. These winds will diminish near sunset, but more exposed sites will see a variable to southerly wind around 5 kts or so. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...FAGAN/JP SHORT TERM...GEERTSON LONG TERM...VORST AVIATION...GEERTSON  191 FXUS66 KPDT 192308 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 408 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers today and Wednesday, mainly over the mountains - Breezy to locally windy westerly winds through the Cascade gaps today - Warming through the week && .DISCUSSION... Through Saturday, warming temperatures and mostly dry conditions are forecast region-wide as an upper-level ridge of high pressure will likely (95 percent confidence) build into the region from the Pacific and dominate the weather. A couple weak shortwaves coupled with modest diurnally induced instability (surface-based CAPE of a up to a couple hundred J/kg from forecast soundings) may facilitate some isolated showers, mainly over the mountains through Thursday, but PoPs are low (15 percent or less). Breezy to locally windy westerly winds are forecast through the Cascade gaps today, but not anticipating a need for any wind headlines. Late Wednesday through Thursday, a reversal to mostly light easterly to northeasterly (offshore) winds is forecast as a shortwave trough digs south across the northern Plains and Rockies, just clipping the edge of our forecast area. Considerable uncertainty in the 500-hPa pattern is present in ensemble solutions by the weekend and early next week, with the majority of the variance in solutions explained by timing and magnitude differences regarding the arrival of a trough or closed low from the Pacific. Ensemble trends have been towards a closed low for the Pacific Northwest sometime between Monday and Tuesday, but run-to-run and ensemble-to-ensemble differences are still quite significant and forecast confidence is lower than average. Ensemble clustering tools did not run today, so can't provide any more details about scenarios at this time. The NBM has westerly winds returning to the region by late Friday, persisting through the weekend and into early next week. There are low chances (10-40 percent) of reaching advisory- level winds Saturday and Sunday through wind-prone areas of the lower elevations, primarily the eastern Columbia River Gorge, north-central Oregon, the foothills of the Blue Mountains, and the Kittitas Valley. By Monday, chances increase to 20-60 percent across the same areas. Of course, the magnitude of winds will be tied to the synoptic pattern, and given the uncertainty (see paragraph above), can't really talk about much confidence in forecast details yet. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. CIGs will be mostly FEW/SCT 25kft with winds continuing to be slightly breezy at DLS/PDT/RDM/BDN settling after 06-07Z. All other TAF sites will remain below 10kts. 90 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 46 73 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 50 73 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 49 79 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 47 78 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 48 76 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 43 72 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 37 73 39 77 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 40 70 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 39 73 39 76 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 50 77 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...90  438 FXUS64 KBMX 192310 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 610 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 608 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026 - Warm conditions are expected again on Tuesday with highs near 90 degrees. Heat indices will remain in the upper 80s in the far north and lower 90s the rest of the area through much of the work week. - Chances for showers and storms increase Tuesday afternoon and continue each afternoon through the weekend, with the highest (40-70%) chances in northern and western portions of Central Alabama during the afternoon and evening hours each day. - High moisture levels will support periods of heavy rain, though total amounts are anticipated to be light (1 to 2 inches across the area). && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 103 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026 High pressure will develop and strengthen to the east of the southern US through the work week, putting AL on the western side of the center of the high. This will cause prevailing southerly flow, which will bring plenty of moisture to the state. A boundary will approach from the northwest, stalling as it moves into the northern counties. As the boundary meanders over the same general area for the next couple of days, it will bring enough forcing for diurnal convection each day. Today, instabilities between 1000 and 2000 J/kg, with LI values in the -4 range could support afternoon thunderstorms, though moisture isn't as impressive, with PW values hovering just higher than the 75th percentile. CAMs are showing a slight increasing trend for an isolated cell activity, though if anything does form, it should be weak and short lived with the lack of moisture. A line of storms will approach the western edge of the state by this evening. CAMs are showing a general agreement that the line will weaken, with showers and maybe a rumble of thunder possible through much of the night. Activity could linger in the early morning Wednesday, but should be limited in coverage and strength. By Wednesday afternoon, greater instability, between 2000 and 3000 J/kg, with LI values up to -6, and PW values increasing to the 90th percentile could support greater storm development. Confidence is slightly lower on how strong these storms could be, with a lot depending on how great the coverage of storms is Wednesday early morning, and how much clearing will happen by mid to late morning. Wind profiles are weak, so any storm should be slow moving and pulse like. With PW values increasing, heavy rain and frequent lightning are possible, and any area that receives a slow mover may see a locally higher amount of rain totals. Thursday and Friday have a greater chance for the diurnal afternoon convection developing and remaining through the early night. A low pressure begins to develop over the mid MS River Valley, with low and mid level winds increasing. With greater low level convergence expected along that stalled and weakening boundary, and closer to the low, coverage will be greater in the northwestern half of the state, with similar instability values, wind profiles, and LI values as Wednesday. Strong storms are possible with high rain rates, frequent lightning, and gusting winds in each storm. By the weekend, the low moves to the northeast, strengthening with time, and another low pressure approaches the state from the west. Diurnal convection should continue, with low level flow from the south keeping PW values elevated and plenty of moisture advection. Throughout the week, an average of a couple of inches of rain could fall, with a gradient from northwest to southwest, higher values in the northwest closer to the greater focus of convection, and lower values in the southeast. However, because of the high PW values, slow movement of storms (at times), and the storms should become strong, areas that receive storms, or even training storms, will likely see much higher rainfall totals. Temperatures will start off the week in the 90s, cooling slightly to the upper 80s. With the flow from the south and moisture advection, even though the temperatures may feel a couple of degrees cooler, the heat indices will remain in the upper 80s in the far north, and lower 90s through the rest of the area. Many days could feel stifling and with more activities outside, heat stress could occur quickly in those not taking proper precautions. 24 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026 VFR conditions prevail throughout this TAF cycle. Light and variable winds tonight will increase out of the south through the day tomorrow, generally from 6-10 knots. Latest CAMs continue to hint at isolated convection developing during the afternoon hours Wednesday. Therefore, a PROB30 for -TSRA has been introduced from roughly 18Z - 00Z. 95/Castillo && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions are in store for much of the day Tuesday with minRHs in the 40-50% range during the afternoon. Southwest flow will bring more moisture, with RH values slowly increasing through the end of the work week. Isolated to scattered showers are expected, with a greater concentration in the north and northwest, beginning Wednesday afternoon and each afternoon into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 66 87 64 86 / 0 60 40 60 Anniston 66 87 64 86 / 0 50 40 50 Birmingham 70 87 67 86 / 10 60 50 50 Tuscaloosa 70 88 67 86 / 10 50 60 40 Calera 68 89 65 88 / 0 40 50 30 Auburn 68 89 67 89 / 0 30 30 20 Montgomery 70 89 68 89 / 10 30 30 20 Troy 69 89 68 89 / 10 40 30 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...24 AVIATION...95/Castillo  749 FXUS64 KOUN 192313 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 613 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 549 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Cool, below normal temperatures today through Thursday. Near normal temperatures will return by the end of the week through early next week. - Shower and storm chances continue Wednesday through early next week. A few strong storms may be possible late this week. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The cold front has moved through all except the southeastern part of the forecast area, and the significant thunderstorms have moved out. But winds above the frontal boundary continue to be south/southwesterly and isentropic lift is developing around the 295K/300K surfaces. A few showers are beginning to develop this afternoon and are expected to increase as the southerly flow above the front (and therefore the isentropic lift) increases this tonight. Most models (the NAM being the exception) show very little elevated instability, so severe weather is not expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Rain chances decrease early Wednesday as the isentropic lift decreases. But then shower/storm chances will increase Wednesday evening and especially Thursday as a mid-level trough approaches. Rainfall looks to be widespread on Thursday with this system. We will still be in this cooler post-frontal airmass, so no surface instability is expected and severe weather potential is low. Precipitation chances will decrease from west to east Thursday night as the trough moves to the east. High temperatures will be cool both Wednesday and Thursday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A subtropical jet, with perturbations within the broader mid-level flow, will overspread the southern Plains through next weekend. This continuous mid-level flow will support daily thunderstorm chances through the weekend across our area. At this time, there is low confidence in severe weather during this timeframe. Temperatures will continue to be closer to seasonable through early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 549 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR and IFR conditions will be predominate through the forecast period, exception being at CSM where there will be periods of VFR conditions at both the beginning and at the end of the forecast period and at WWR where VFR conditions are expected to continue through the day Wednesday. Will also be periods of rain, storms, drizzle and fog overnight and for a while Wednesday morning, which could lower visibility to around 3 miles at times, before chances lower below mentionable. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 54 70 58 71 / 60 20 60 90 Hobart OK 52 73 56 73 / 50 20 80 80 Wichita Falls TX 56 76 60 76 / 60 30 80 80 Gage OK 46 70 51 69 / 0 20 80 80 Ponca City OK 52 67 55 70 / 40 10 60 80 Durant OK 62 78 65 76 / 40 30 50 90 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...30  920 FXUS63 KDVN 192316 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 616 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - After a cooler than normal second half of the week, rain chances will be on the increase just before the weekend. - A pattern change over the weekend will bring warmer than normal temperatures to the area next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 159 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Slowly clearing skies will be seen tonight into Wednesday with cooler than normal temperatures. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 159 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Thursday through Friday night Assessment...high (>80%) confidence of a storm system. Low to medium (20-40%) confidence on rainfall. The second half of the work week will be characterized by cooler than normal temperatures. The global models have a storm system forecast to impact the Midwest late in the week but there are timing differences. Interestingly, most ensemble members of the global models take the main surface low east of the Mississippi which raises questions regarding the overall rainfall potential for the area. The timing differences between the various models and their ensembles result in an overall risk for rain that potentially could start as early as Thursday or hold off until Friday. Based on the overall large scale picture, the various global models are indicating very late Thursday night into Friday as being the most likely time period for any rain to occur. Here the model consensus has a 60-70% chance of rain. Rain would then linger into Friday evening before ending. Overall rainfall amounts will be variable; Some locations will see under 0.25 inches of rain while some may see close to an inch. Sunday through Tuesday Assessment...a certainty (>95%) of warmer than normal temperatures The holiday weekend will be mainly dry although a rogue diurnal shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Starting Sunday the pattern change will be noticeable as temperatures trend above normal and are then expected to remain above normal next week. All models show an upper level ridge building along the east coast which will place the Midwest in southwest flow aloft. Humidity levels will be on the increase with dew points raising initially into the upper 50s and lower 60s; tolerable for all but the most sensitive people. Starting Tuesday humidity levels will be much more noticeable and uncomfortable as dew points climb into the mid 60s. The increased moisture combined with the very warm temperatures and a passing upper level disturbance is expected to result in mainly diurnal convection Tuesday afternoon and evening. Right now the model consensus has rain chances at 15 to 25 percent. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 613 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Strato-cumulus continues to be scattered to broken over the entire area as of 23Z tonight, but is slowly lifting. The process of both lifting and breaking up has been delayed reaching consistent VFR levels until 01-02Z tonight. After that, consistent VFR few to scattered clouds are expected overnight and full clearing Wednesday morning from any remaining high clouds as well. Northwest winds around 10kts are expected through the period with slight turning to the north Wednesday. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...Ervin  891 FXUS63 KFGF 192315 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 615 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freeze Warning for all areas tonight except west central Minnesota (Frost Advisory) with temperatures widely falling to the low 30s and upper 20s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...Synopsis... Upper trough axis currently over the Red River Valley will pull east into the western Great Lakes tonight. The high pressure centered over the western Plains currently will shift into the upper midwest tonight. Another trough will be digging into the Rockies tomorrow night into Thursday, so westerly flow will quickly shift back to southwesterly. The upper trough to our west splits into a northern and southern branch, and ensemble members vary a bit on how exactly they handle it as it moves east. Most solutions do push the trough east over the weekend, with ridging building into the Plains by Memorial Day. Details such as precipitation timing and placement with the trough are low confidence, but there seems to be good agreement on below average temperatures becoming near to above average by the end of the period. ...Frost and freeze headlines... Clouds should clear out as the upper trough moves east, and with high pressure overhead, winds will become light and variable overnight. There will be a good setup for radiational cooling, and dew points currently in the low 30s over southern Manitoba should be down in our area by tonight. Temps should drop to near or below the freezing mark in most locations, with a 60 to 90 percent chance of 32 or lower for much of eastern ND into northwestern MN. Probabilities of less than 32 are much lower for some reason in west central MN from Elbow Lake up to Detroit Lakes, with chances 20 percent or less.Kept Grant, Otter Tail, and western Becker as frost advisory but have the rest of the CWA in a Freeze Warning. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR ceilings continue to lift this evening with the remaining impacted sites reaching VFR by 9pm. Winds becoming light tonight by midnight before increasing to 5-10kts by 7-10am from the south. Wednesday afternoon gusts of 25-30kts in DVL but low confidence in over 30kts. There is a low 20% chance for some fog overnight in TVF from 08z to 13z but would like to see guidance be a little more consistent before adding it to the taf. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ001>009- 013>017-022>024-028-029-032. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ027-030- 031-040. && $$ DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...TT  220 FXUS63 KDMX 192321 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 621 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Much cooler from today through Friday, with daily highs in the mid-50s to mid-60s. Late tonight/early Wednesday low temperatures will range in the mid-40s southeast to mid/upper 30s north and west, where patchy frost will be possible. - The forecast is dry from tonight through Wednesday, then rain chances will gradually increase Thursday and peak on Friday when showers will be likely (60-80% chance) with a few thunderstorms. Severe weather is unlikely. - Temperatures will warm this weekend into early next week, with daily highs returning to the 70s and 80s. Rain chances will be generally lower during that time, but some showers or storms may still be possible at times. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 It has been decidedly cooler today, with thick stratus clouds and brisk northwest winds keeping temperatures in the upper 40s northwest to upper 50s southeast early this afternoon. Cold air advection will weaken this afternoon, but the clouds will still inhibit warming and temperatures will peak in the mid-50s northwest to lower 60s southeast today. Meanwhile, a large surface high pressure ridge is building across the Dakotas, and will move eastward into Minnesota and northern Iowa tonight. This will cause winds to steadily diminish later today and this evening, becoming much lighter and gradually turning from northwest to northeast by Wednesday morning. The primary forecast question during this time pertains to the degree and timing of clearing that occurs, and how far temperatures fall overnight as a result. Forecast soundings depict a rapid drying of the cloud layer during the evening, roughly coincident and just after sunset, which is consistent with climatological expectations. High-resolution model output also supports this scenario, however, thus far today the model depiction of cloud cover evolution has been well below what is being observed in satellite imagery. That being said, over the last couple hours some slight clearing has been evident on satellite upstream, closer to the center of the high pressure ridge, and the expectation is that we will in fact gradually clear out this evening and early tonight. This will result in prime conditions for radiational cooling overnight into early Wednesday, especially in our northern and western areas where clearing will occur earlier, and where the high pressure area will build in sooner. Temperatures in these areas will fall into the 30s by sunrise Wednesday, however, frost formation is still uncertain due to two primary factors. One is that dewpoints are predicted to be in the mid-30s, so temperatures may not fall below the 35-37 degree range. The other is that while winds will be light, the core of the high pressure ridge will remain over Minnesota and South Dakota, and winds in our area may not go completely calm. Have included an hour or two of patchy frost in just a few spots in our northern counties, but have held off on a Frost Advisory for now due to these mitigating factors. Whether an advisory becomes warranted later today or not, there is some possibility of frost particularly in low-lying areas of northern Iowa and over toward the Nish valley. From Wednesday into Thursday Iowa will lie beneath west southwesterly 500 MB steering flow, through which a couple of very subtle shortwave impulses will move. While these will provide some modest but broad forcing for ascent, initially any precipitation attempting to develop will be fighting low-level dry air/subsidence associated with the slowly departing surface high pressure system. Initially this will result in increasing mid/high level clouds on Wednesday, then by Wednesday night and Thursday we will see gradually increasing rain chances returning to the area, especially our southern counties farther from the influence of the departing high pressure. PoPs increase to 40-50% in that area by Thursday afternoon, however, a lack of instability will preclude thunderstorms or severe weather during this time. The increasing clouds and persistent easterly surface flow out of the high pressure area will support a continuation of cooler weather, however, with high temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday ranging in the upper 50s to mid-60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 By Thursday evening a 500 MB trough will be moving over the U.S. Rockies, and will subsequently become negatively tilted as it emerges over the northern High Plains Thursday night and Friday. As this trough swings across the region, it will generate a broad swath of rain associated with surging moisture, increasing winds aloft, and modest theta-e advection. This swath will enter our southwestern counties Thursday night and move across our forecast area on Friday. Instability will be very limited with surface temperatures only in the 50s to lower 60s, but will still be sufficient for a few elevated thunderstorms at times though severe weather will be unlikely. The rain will move out to the northeast late Friday, after which one last lobe of vorticity clearing out the larger-scale trough will cross Iowa late Saturday. Moisture will be much more limited and it remains to be seen whether any additional showers or thunderstorms will occur in association with that feature. For now 70-80% POPs are carried across Iowa Thursday night into Friday, with only 10-20% POPs on Saturday. In the first half of next week, from around Sunday to Wednesday, a large thermal trough will build over the central U.S., as a blocking pattern sets up with a large 500 MB low forming over the western U.S. Synoptically this would tend to support significantly warmer and generally dry weather for our region. However, there will initially be a week 500 MB trough/low over Texas as the larger ridge begins forming on Sunday, and long- range models are at odds with how that feature will interact with the ridge. The EC and GEM essentially wash out the low as it is overwhelmed by the larger thermal ridge, however, the GFS maintains it as a discrete feature that becomes trapped in the ridge and advects slowly northward over Iowa early next week. This leads to rapidly decreasing confidence in forecast details in the outer periods, however, even in the GFS solution generally warmer temperatures would still be favored, and it seems a safe bet that the cool weather of today and the next several days will be broken as we head into next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 621 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Widespread MVFR conditions remain across the terminals early this evening, but should improve from west to east over the next 2-4 hours, with conditions turning VFR into Wednesday. Winds will turn light out of the north/northeast, before gradually shifting more easterly near the end of the period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lee LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...Bury  246 FXUS64 KLIX 192321 AAA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 621 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...NEW AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 617 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Low confidence high impact forecast tonight with the possibility of flash flooding across northwestern portions of the CWA. This includes the cities of Baton Rouge and McComb. - Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous and widespread Wednesday through the weekend. 7 day rainfall totals will range from 4 to 7 inches in the northwest to less than an inch of much of coastal MS and extreme SELA. - Minor coastal flooding may slightly impact typically known problem areas like Waveland, MS today and Wednesday around midday. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Wednesday) Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The short term forecast is going to focus on the remainder of this afternoon, evening and then look at tomorrow but probably a little more focus on the next 6-12 hours than normally with the regular package. Some of the CAMs for the past 24 to even 30 hours have consistently focused on the northwestern quadrant of our CWA developing convection during the late afternoon through the evening hours. This is remarkable consistency given that they have been very inconsistent with any MCS or remnants of an MCS moving into the area overnight tonight. The convection of concern would begin to develop around 21/22z and is well ahead of any MCS. The big question is why would this develop and develop over the areas mainly near and northwest of a line from Baton Rouge to McComb. A few things look like they could be coming together. First models are suggesting that even though the LL winds don't necessarily increase but there will be a decent increase in the LL confluence across the northwest starting around 22z and persisting through the evening or until an MCS or remnant boundary of an MCS moves through overnight. There is already a mid lvl impulse pushing into the Lower MS Valley and it is already adding to the lift giving us isolated to widely scattered showers across the western half of the CWA. There is also a remnant boundary from an MCV that was over southeast TX earlier today moving towards the Atchafalaya and that could help to spark some development across the northwest in the next few hours. Last we will see an increase in the diffluence aloft at the same time we are seeing that increase in the LL confluence. In almost a classic split flow type setup, the northwestern portions of the CWA will be directly under an enhanced V which will provide very efficient diffluence aloft. Looking at the current conditions there is abundant moisture in place. PWs are ranging from 1.7 to just under 1.9" based off of GOES19 TPW product. LL moisture has also been increasing for the past 24 to 36 hours and dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s. Instability is also not in short supply with ML CAPE of 2500 and sfc based CAPE between 3-3500 j/kg however the Mid lvl lapse rates are likely around 5.5-6 C/km which this makes sense given the moisture laden airmass we have. This also would tend to take hail off the board from a standpoint of severe aspects. I won' t say tornadoes are not possible but they aren't the top concern given the lack of shear. 0-1 and 0-3 km helicity is absent basically and 0-6km bulk shear is generally around 20-30kt. This suggest more multicellular setup and not really organized severe weather. That said with the amount of moisture and instability in place there will be a risk possibly a wet microburst or two with any thunderstorm that can become a little more potent. So at this time severe can not be ruled out but it is not the biggest concern, that may actually be flash flooding but it will be highly dependent on where the storms fire and of course if we actually get deeper convection to persist for the 4 to 8 hours that some of the CAMs are advertising. At this time confidence is still in the medium range mainly do to convection developing, how long it persists, and especially location. That said confidence is high that any thunderstorms that develop late this afternoon and through the evening will be extremely efficient due to weak steering currents, abundant moisture and instability, and enhanced diffluence aloft. The REFS PMM shows widespread totals greater than 4 inches across much of the northwest with multiple locations possibly seeing greater than 7 inches and that is before 12z tomorrow. The majority of this risk looks to be from 22z till 4z today/tonight but storms could persist longer and there is still a great deal of uncertainty with respect to any MCS developing and trying to move towards the area overnight. Biggest concern is if storms get anchored in and around the BTR metro (includes Denham Springs, Walker, Baker, portions of West Baton Rouge) or some of the flashier parts of southwest MS where there is some elevation changes and could lead to some very problematic flash flooding. As for overnight and tomorrow this is more of a question mark. It looks like a disturbance coming out of Mexico may be what helps get another MCS to develop over southeast TX this evening and that will try to work east. This lift may also try to help redevelop a decaying MCS moving south and SSE out of northeast TX and southwest AR. There is a lot of uncertainty with how all that develops and move into the region. If it strengthens and develops a strong cold pool it would surge SSE towards the instability and likely moves into or skirts the western fringes of the CWA and into the Gulf early tomorrow...probably before sunrise. However there will be some remnant boundary stretching back to the north from it across the CWA which may be the focus of development tomorrow. The biggest question is how much cloud cover do we have over the area and will it allow us to destabilize enough to get convection to develop early enough or does it hold off and we wait for the next subtle impulse to come across the area in the southwest flow aloft tomorrow afternoon/evening. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday night) Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Focus is really on the short term especially given the next 4 to 8 hours and uncertainty overnight. That said models have not changed and the pattern we will be in just screams active weather for the next week. Obviously rain won't be occurring the entire time as there will be breaks and possibly even one or two days with limited rainfall as timing any of these impulses is difficult to futile this far out and depending how long one rain event lasts it could work us over pretty well leading to the area needing some time to recover. No deviations made from the latest NBM. As we have been mentioning for the last few days, we will remain under persistent southwest flow aloft with abundant moisture in place. This is going to leave us in a rather favorable regime for multiple rounds of storms and locally heavy rain. Biggest difference the previous rain event we have had and is a positive difference is there is no real well defined front laying up over the area to act as a sfc/LL focus. That said with the ridge still holding strong over the eastern Gulf and into the southeastern CONUS and southwest flow aloft we still look like there could be quite the dichotomy across the region with the northwest seeing multiple inches of rain, 3-6 inches after tonight and tomorrows possible rain and maybe struggling to even get an inch of rain over portions of coastal MS and extreme southeast LA. Temperatures will be slightly above normal mainly due to above normal lows as we remain very humid throughout the forecast. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR/MVFR conditions through the cycle with a couple of opportunities for convective development. First will be overnight for the western half of the area as a decaying line of storms moves closer to those terminals. Additional convective development will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. If convection moves over a terminal there will be a bit more erratic winds as well as IFR or perhaps lower in the heaviest rainfall. Otherwise, winds will remain light to moderate from the south. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A large area of high pressure will remain situated over the western Atlantic through the week and into the weekend. This will maintain light to moderate onshore flow through the time. Winds will bounce around headline criteria with sustained winds right around to slightly below 15 kts, especially closer to the coast and west of the MS River. As for showers and thunderstorms, daily isolated to scattered showers will be possible each day however the bulk of the coverage will remain inland. With any thunderstorms locally hazardous winds and waves can be expected. Any minor coastal flooding that occurred today should quickly abate and expecting tides to be a little lower each day through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. /CAB/ && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CAB LONG TERM....CAB AVIATION...RDF MARINE...CAB  174 FXUS66 KOTX 192320 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 420 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pop up showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily northeastern WA and North Idaho Tuesday afternoon. - Conditions trend drier and warmer through the workweek regionwide, with periodic breezy winds for the Cascades and central WA. - Potential cooling trend into early next week with chances for precipitation and breezy conditions. && .SYNOPSIS... Showers with isolated afternoon thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon. Precipitation chances decrease and afternoon highs trend warmer through the workweek, climbing back into the 70s and 80s by Thursday and continuing through next weekend. Breezy winds are expected at times through the Cascade gaps and across the western Columbia Basin. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday: Region remains on the backside of ridge extending into northern BC. Tuesdays afternoons instability will subside and calmer conditions expected tonight. Most of the region will remain in a dry, warming trend for the next several days. Weak shortwaves will continue to move North to South along the backside of the ridge. Along with afternoon heat, the waves will generate enough instability to produce isolated showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Best locations continue to be Northeast WA and the Idaho Panhandle with a 10-20% probability. The main hazards will be gusty outflow winds up to 30 mph and very small hail around pea size or less. Winds will also be breezy down the Okanogan Valley with gusts near 30 mph for Wednesday afternoon. The ridge shifts east and over the Inland Northwest. It will keep Thursday and Friday drier and warmer than previous days. Saturday will start a transition period as the the ridge starts to breakdown and trough begins to move into the Pacific Northwest. Highs for the period will be in the 70s to low 80s. Minor heat risk is expected across the region. Overnight lows will be in the 40s and low 50s. Sunday through Wednesday: Ensembles are in good agreement with the ridge breakdown and trough arrival. The main difference is timing. The GEFS is pushing it across the region starting late Sunday through Monday. The ECMWF is about 24 hours slower. Either way, the start of next week is expected to cooler and wetter than the end of this week. Snow levels will lower to around 5000 ft to perhaps bring light snow for the higher elevations of the Cascades. Precip amounts are expected to be light with a range of a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch. Highs will be in the 60s to low 70s. Lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s. /JDC && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs: VFR conditions expected through the period. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue into this evening across far northeast Washington and north Idaho with breezy outflow gusts around 25 kt. Winds will remain elevated across much of the Inland Northwest into the evening with gusts up to 20 knots, then will wane after sunset. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions the next 24 hours. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 45 70 43 71 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 45 68 42 71 47 74 / 10 0 10 0 0 0 Pullman 43 66 41 69 44 73 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 Lewiston 47 71 47 74 49 78 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 Colville40 74 37 76 43 79 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 43 67 41 70 45 73 / 10 10 20 0 0 0 Kellogg 43 67 41 71 45 75 / 10 10 20 0 0 0 Moses Lake 45 77 48 79 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 50 77 52 78 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 47 77 47 78 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$  333 FXUS62 KRAH 192323 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 725 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Made a downward adjustment to high temperatures on Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 235 PM Tuesday... 1) Hot and dry through Wednesday. 2) Rain chances return Thursday, with chances persisting into early next week. Low confidence in high temps Thursday and especially Friday. && .DISCUSSION... As of 235 PM Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Hot and dry through Wednesday. Surface high pressure is located off the SE coast with mid-level ridging over the region. This is allowing for the extended period of southerly winds bringing hot temperatures and mainly dry conditions to continue through Wednesday. This afternoon, temperatures are still expected to rise generally into the mid 90s. Low level thicknesses are similar tomorrow afternoon, suggesting that highs should rise into the mid 90s again. Lows both nights also look to only drop into the mid-to-upper 60s, which will provide little relief from the heat. Thus, the HeatRisk both days is mostly Moderate (level 2 of 4), with a few isolated patches of Major (3 of 4). This means that heat may effect those without access to cooling and hydration, especially those who are sensitive to heat. KEY MESSAGE 2... Rain chances return Thursday, with chances persisting into early next week. Low confidence in high temps Thursday and especially Friday. Aloft, the sub-tropical ridge may once again strengthen and lift newd across the region Thu night through Sat, with several s/w disturbances tracking across the Plains and MS Valley. A s/w will clip the region over the weekend, with high pressure strengthening again off the Southeast US coast early next week. At the surface, cold front approaching from the north will slide southward across central NC Thu aft/eve. A CAD air mass should set up through Fri/Fri night as high pressure tracking across the Northeast US ridges swd into the area and warm, moist air overruns the cool, stable boundary layer resulting in overcast skies and rain. Still expect the wedge to erode Sat/Sat night, with the front lifting nnwwd back across the area. However, the spread in available guidance increases beyond from Sat onward, with significant differences and forecast implications for central NC. The EC erodes the wedge on by Sat night, while the GFS keeps it in place into Mon. Precipitation: The best chances for showers/storms will be Thu along and ahead of the backdoor cold front as it moves into and across the area. In the wake of the front, warm air advecting in above the cooler, stable boundary layer could result in some light rain through at least Fri/Fri night over central NC. Regardless of what happens with the wedge, expect daily chances for precipitation Sat- Mon, with temperatures and instability the primary areas of uncertainty. Where/when the wedge erodes and a warm front lifts nwd across the area, there will be the chance for additional diurnally driven convection on the warm side of the boundary, while rain will be favored north of it. Temperatures: Highs Thu will be impacted by the timing of the front and the convection ahead/along it. For now, expect highs ranging from mid 80s north to low 90s south. There is a large bust potential wrt highs on Fri given the potential for CAD to briefly set up and possible continued rain into it. For now have highs ranging from upper 60s north to low/mid 80s south, but with below average confidence. Lows Thu and Fri nights expected to range from mid 50s north to mid 60s south. Generally expect temperatures to moderate back to near/slightly above normal over the weekend and early next week, but that will depend on when the wedge erodes. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 725 PM Tuesday... VFR conditions are generally expected at the TAF sites over the 24 hour TAF period. Outlook: Flight restrictions will return on Thursday as a cold front brings the next chance for showers and thunderstorms along with gusty NE winds to the region. Sub-VFR ceilings also look to persist into Friday in the Triad and potentially RDU as a CAD regime looks to set up over the region. Daily shower/storm chances will also be possible through the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 19: KGSO: 96/1911 KRDU: 95/1962 KFAY: 96/2022 May 20: KGSO: 95/1917 KRDU: 96/2022 KFAY: 99/2022 May 21: KRDU: 96/1941 KFAY: 99/1941 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 19: KGSO: 68/2018 KRDU: 70/2022 May 20: KGSO: 68/2022 KRDU: 69/2019 KFAY: 71/2022 May 21: KGSO: 67/2022 KRDU: 71/1898 KFAY: 71/2025 May 23: KFAY: 72/2011 May 24: KGSO: 69/2019 KRDU: 70/2011 KFAY: 72/2000 May 25: KRDU: 71/2019 KFAY: 71/2019 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...10/Helock AVIATION...Badgett/Helock CLIMATE...RAH  314 FXUS62 KTAE 192323 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 723 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 719 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 - Hot afternoon temperatures are expected through this weekend. Inland high temperatures will most commonly reach the 90 to 95 degree range. Minor to Moderate heat-related impacts are expected, affecting those who are sensitive to heat, and some health systems and industries. - Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms continue through Friday. Coverage will then increase over this weekend into early next week. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with stronger storms. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Satellite-derived Precipitable Water (PW) imagery currently shows two different maxima of moisture. The first maximum, characterized by PW values of 1.5 to 1.6 inches, is located along the U.S. 19 corridor from Perry FL down to the Suwannee. The second maximum, with PWs of 1.4-1.5 inches, is located west of the U.S. 231 corridor in FL and AL. These are the areas that will be favored for isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon and this evening. On Wednesday, drier mid-level air which water vapor imagery highlights east of the First Coast will migrate westward, nearly shutting down convection along the Nature Coast seabreeze. In contrast, the Emerald Coast seabreeze over the Panhandle will have even more moisture to play with. PWs of 1.5 to 1.8 inches will support scattered PM thunderstorms, with southeast steering flow then taking storms northwestward into the Alabama Wiregrass. Given pockets of mid-level dry air, a favorable downdraft environment will support briefly strong convective gusts of 40-50 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Through Friday, the 500 mb pattern will feature a fairly sharp ridge axis extending from the SW Gulf to the NE Gulf, acting as a suppressor to PM seabreeze thunderstorm development. PM storms will be isolated at most. This weekend, the upper ridge axis will move east across the FL Peninsula and then east of FL early next week. In response, weak southerly to southwesterly mid- level flow will develop across our region, acting as less of a suppressor to convection. 1000-700 mb layer southeast flow will become better defined this weekend, bringing a more reliable feed of deeper moisture from the vicinity of the Greater Antilles. By next Monday and Tuesday, GEFS ensemble members show the most likely range of PWs in the 1.6 to 1.9 inch range areawide. PoPs will respond with an initial jump on Saturday, then a slower climb in rain chances from Sunday through next Tuesday. This is starting to look more classically like the start of summer rainy season. Otherwise, the proximity of upper ridging through this weekend will support afternoon temperature running 1-4 degrees above normal. Inland highs will commonly reach the 90-95 degree range, with heat index values in the 95-100 range. We have already seen minor heat-related impacts over the last couple of weeks. Now we will start to see Moderate heat-related impacts, as highlighted in NWS Heat Risk. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 719 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR expected to prevail. A low probability of MVFR/IFR at ECP, DHN, and VLD around sunrise. A PROB30 for TSRA on Wednesday at ECP and DHN. && .MARINE... Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 A high pressure center will persist near Bermuda through this weekend, with a broad ridge extending west to the Georgia coast. Gentle easterly breezes over the northeast Gulf will become southeasterly on Thursday then continue through this weekend, interrupted each afternoon by the nearshore seabreeze. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The main fire weather concern over the next 7 days will be gusty and erratic winds near afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Through Friday, storms will be isolated, favoring the Nature Coast seabreeze and the Emerald Coast seabreeze. Thunderstorm coverage will increase this weekend as the air mass moistens a little more, becoming scattered and persisting through early next week. Otherwise, a seasonably hot air mass will persist, with afternoon temperatures will running 1-4 degrees above normal. Areas of fog are expected on Wednesday and Thursday mornings, mainly west of U.S. 231 through the Panhandle and Lower Alabama. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Heavy downpours beneath the core of afternoon and evening thunderstorms may lead to localized and short-lived nuisance flooding in urban or poor drainage areas, mainly from Saturday onward as thunderstorm coverage increases and the air mass moistens further. Larger scale flooding and river flooding are not expected for the next 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 91 71 91 71 / 10 10 20 0 Panama City 87 72 87 71 / 10 0 40 0 Dothan 90 70 90 69 / 10 10 40 20 Albany 90 70 91 69 / 0 0 10 10 Valdosta 91 66 91 69 / 10 10 10 0 Cross City 93 67 93 70 / 40 20 10 0 Apalachicola 84 75 83 72 / 0 0 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Haner LONG TERM....Haner AVIATION...LF MARINE...Haner FIRE WEATHER...Haner HYDROLOGY...Haner  265 FXUS63 KDLH 192322 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 622 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for light showers and sprinkles continue this afternoon and early evening. - A Freeze Warning has been issued for tonight for areas from Duluth to Brainerd on north, where temperatures will drop into the lower 30s and threaten sensitive vegetation. A Frost Advisory has been issued for areas to the south. - Cool temps continue through midweek with a warming trend into the weekend. - Near-critical fire weather conditions may develop on Thursday due to relative humidity dropping to 25 percent and gusty south winds up to 20 mph. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 For the rest of this afternoon, chilly and cloudy conditions will persist across the Northland with scattered rain showers/sprinkles. Temperatures tonight will highly depend on the cloud cover. Satellite imagery shows a cellular nature to the clouds, which have broken out best over north-central Minnesota, but the cumulus field still extends well to the west and south. This creates a classic spring conundrum for overnight low temperatures when the mean of guidance is near freezing. High confidence exists for clearing and colder temperatures in the southwestern sections of our region, while lower confidence remains for the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. Am least confident (40-60%) in getting below 35 degrees over northwest Wisconsin due to the cloud cover, so have issued a Frost Advisory for all of northwest Wisconsin and Pine County in Minnesota. Around the Brainerd Lakes, I have the most confidence they will clear out and have gone below guidance with min temps around freezing. Farther north and into the Arrowhead, confidence in cloud cover lowers again, but the incoming air is cold enough I still have high confidence in freezing temperatures. A Freeze Warning has been issued tonight for areas from Duluth to Brainerd and northward, where temperatures will drop into the lower 30s. Wednesday will give us a sunny and milder day with afternoon high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s, with cooler conditions near Lake Superior. Clear skies Wednesday night will allow for rapid cooling once again, leading to another night of patchy frost across the area with lows in the mid 30s. Frost Advisories are possible, even likely Wednesday night into Thursday morning. On Thursday, high pressure departs to the east, bringing sunny skies, southerly winds warmer temperatures which continue into Friday. Highs both days should get into the 60s with upper 50s near Lake Superior. Rain chances return Friday night through Saturday as an upper level trough moves out of the Northern Plains and across the Great Lakes. Mostly cloudy skies and damp conditions will keep Saturday highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Upper level ridging to our west and southerly flow across the region will bring a surge of much warmer temperatures to the region for the rest of the Memorial Day weekend. I expect highs on Monday to be well above normal. However, this will be a fairly active pattern with shortwaves likely to dive through this upper level pattern, and we also have some chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 621 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Stratocumulus engulfs the region this evening with most of the ceilings being reported as VFR with a few pockets of MVFR at times. Gusty northwest winds will persist for a little while longer before tapering off overnight. Cloud cover will also start to reduce with clearing expected across the west. High pressure will move overhead for tomorrow providing light and variable winds through the day. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Northwest to west winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots to slowly subside this afternoon and tonight. Winds back into the southeast and then east on Wednesday, remaining generally less than 10kts with waves of 2 feet or less. The east winds continue into Thursday, gradually increasing into the 10 to 15 knot range with waves slowly building but remaining below 3 feet. Stronger winds and building waves are expected Friday into Saturday as a low pressure system moves towards the area. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Gusty northwest winds and afternoon sprinkles occur today with chilly air moving in, keeping relative humidity values above 50 percent. Wednesday brings a dry day with light winds under high pressure. Fire weather concerns increase for Thursday, featuring gusty southerly winds up to 20 mph and minimum relative humidity values dropping to 25 percent. The most concerning conditions with the strongest winds will be found from Koochiching county south through the Brainerd Lakes. Moisture begins moving back into the area for Friday, which should keep minimum RH values above 30 percent for most of the area. The gusty southerly winds continue Friday, reaching 20 to 25 mph. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>037. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ038. WI...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for WIZ001>004- 006>009. MARINE...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ142. && $$ DISCUSSION...LE AVIATION...Britt MARINE...LE FIRE WEATHER...LE  347 FXUS63 KOAX 192323 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 623 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler weather continues with the potential for morning frost for northeast Nebraska on Wednesday. - Shower/thunderstorm chances return Wednesday night into Thursday continuing on/off through Friday. - Trend back toward warmer temperatures over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Today and Tonight... Northerly winds behind yesterday's cold front yielded cooler temperatures and gradually clearing skies as high pressure shifted into the Central Plains. Overnight, temperatures dipped into the mid 40s as winds gusted out of the north at 20 to 30 mph. By noon, temperatures had reached the mid 50s. Skies will clear through the evening in northeast Nebraska, before scattered cloud cover begins to build back in early Wednesday morning. Under the high pressure and mostly clear skies, temperatures will drop well below normal overnight. Lows are expected to bottom out in the low 40s in far southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa, and the low to mid 30s across northeast Nebraska. Light winds combined with the cool temps could lead to areas of frost over northeast Nebraska, especially in low lying areas. Therefore, a Frost Advisory has been issued for locations along and north of a line from Columbus to Fremont, NE, to Soldier, Iowa. Wednesday through Thursday... High pressure slides east of the forecast area Wednesday, as a shortwave ripples out of the Rockies. Temperatures will rise back into the upper 50s and low 60s Wednesday and Thursday. Lows will remain slightly warmer than Wednesday morning, under southerly return flow, only dipping into the low and mid 40s. A few showers will sneak across the forecast area with the advancing shortwave Wednesday night through Thursday. While a few rumbles of thunder may be possible, forecast soundings indicate little to no instability available with cooler temperatures, likely precluding the chance for strong or severe storms. Thursday Night and Beyond... An upper low will drop south out of Canada into the Central Plains Thursday night and Friday, bringing increasing chances for showers and storms through the end of the week. While current model solutions keep the more potent instability to our south over Kansas and Oklahoma, variations remain in the timing and track of this system. As such, it will be worth keeping an eye on for severe potential, as solutions come into better agreement. Although we may have to contend with ongoing convection and cloudy skies, southerly low level flow will draw slightly warmer temperatures into the region Friday, allowing highs to reach the mid 60s. A cold front looks to pass through the region late Friday/early Saturday, but is quickly followed by a ridge building into the desert southwest. This will push warmer air back into the plains for the upcoming weekend. The current forecast calls for highs into the low 70s on Saturday and upper 70s to low 80s Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions expected through the period with lingering 3500-5000 ft clouds dissipating this evening. Additional 3500 ft clouds look to develop Wednesday morning and last through the afternoon. Winds will start northerly and gradually turn clockwise, settling at northeasterly at OMA and LNK, and southeasterly at OFK with speeds generally remaining under 10 kts. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>044. IA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for IAZ043. && $$ DISCUSSION...KG AVIATION...CA  274 FXUS64 KCRP 192322 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 622 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The main focus for the short-term period is the developing MCS in Central Texas which is progged to propagate south-southeastward down the instability axis late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Despite the nocturnal timing, warm southerly flow should maintain 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the convective line with DCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range supporting a damaging wind threat, particularly given the strong system cold pool likely to develop. Additionally there are hints among the CAMs of a wake low develop behind the system, so that will be something to watch for Wednesday morning. With the afternoon update, refined PoP timing as the convection looks to begin its southward push a little later which would favor the best timing window for storms from 1AM-7AM (progressing from NW to SE). Although rainfall totals of 1-2 inches can be expected with the passage of the system, the progressive nature of the MCS will hopefully limit hydro concerns. && .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 606 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Dangerous swimming conditions with a high risk of rip currents along the Middle Texas Coast through this week - Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of strong to severe storms tonight into tomorrow morning - Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) to Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of Flash Flooding due to excessive rainfall tonight through && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Another shortwave will move into the region from Mexico tonight around midnight. This feature will interact with a cold front moving into the area that has been primed with moisture, thanks to a strong low level jet. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible tonight along with the potential for heavy rain. It should enter the Brush Country around midnight and move into the Coastal Plains to Coastal Bend around 03-06 AM tomorrow morning. Therefore, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted all of South Texas under a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds as the primary threat followed by hail. Likewise, with the soils primed from last nights MCS, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted the southern half of the CWA under Marginal Risk of Flash Flooding with a Slight Risk for the northern counties. As we move further into the week, a series of shortwaves are expected to continue moving into the region producing periods of moderate to heavy through Sunday night. With that being said, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted all of South Texas under a Marginal to Slight Risk of Flash Flooding Wednesday and Thursday and a Marginal Risk for all of South Texas Thursday and Friday. Current rainfall accumulations expected from tonight through Sunday night are 3.5-5" across the western half and 3.5-6" across the eastern half, with the highest total expected across the Victoria Crossroads. Some areas could see isolated higher amounts. Please continue to check the forecast for updated as the next few days evolve. Persistent strong onshore flow with swell periods of 7-8 seconds warrants a high risk of rip currents, causing dangerous swimming conditions. These conditions will also lead to another threat for minor coastal flooding early tomorrow morning during high tide. We'll need to keep a close eye on webcams with how much wave runup we get, but confidence is low with the lack of buoy observations. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR stratus will begin to fill in over the coastal plains terminals in the 01 to 03Z timeframe. The main concern for the remainder of the TAF period will be a line of storms progged to move into the area from the north late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Currently 07 to 12Z looks to be the most probable time frame for direct terminal impacts, with strong winds (gusts in excess of 35 kts) and temporary visibility reductions the primary concerns. Winds will generally be out of the SE outside of gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflows. && .MARINE... Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A fresh breeze (BF 5) is expected to continue through this afternoon and into the early evening hours. Winds will relax to a moderate breeze (BF 4) Tuesday night and continue through the end of the work week. Medium chances (50-65%) for shower and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night through Friday night before increasing to higher chances (60-80%) Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 89 77 87 / 60 50 20 80 Victoria 73 87 73 84 / 70 50 20 90 Laredo 74 92 72 89 / 60 20 60 50 Alice 75 90 74 88 / 60 50 30 70 Rockport 78 89 78 88 / 70 50 20 80 Cotulla 72 89 72 87 / 60 40 70 70 Kingsville 77 89 76 87 / 50 30 30 70 Navy Corpus 79 86 78 86 / 50 40 20 80 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for TXZ345-442- 443-447. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ231-232- 236-237-250-255-270-275. && $$ DISCUSSION...JCP/84 AVIATION...NC/91  321 FXUS65 KGJT 192323 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 523 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freezing temperatures will impact the lower basins of northwest Colorado tomorrow morning. Freeze Warnings are in effect. - Temperatures will start to warm today onward, reaching above normal temperatures by Sunday. - Precipitation is periodically possible through the week, mostly over the higher terrain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1127 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 The ongoing active pattern shifts to ridging and high pressure this weekend. The weather will generally be dry and quiet as this transition occurs, with the exception of over the central and southern mountains tonight through tomorrow afternoon, and across the very northern part of our CWA Thursday. Tonight through tomorrow afternoon rain and snow is possible in the central and southern mountains thanks to some lingering moisture and energy from a shortwave trough. Warming temperatures and limited moisture will keep any snow accumulations very minimal, and only at the highest elevations. On Thursday another trough propagates across the area, bringing lift and weak moisture advection to the northern half of our CWA. Some deterministic models are suggesting a slightly more southerly track for this trough, which would bring precipitation chances south of I-70, but the current forecast keeps rain and high elevation snow chances primarily in the more northern areas. After Thursday pieces of energy and moisture in the flow may support some terrain based afternoon convection each day. Tonight and tomorrow morning the potential for below freezing low temperatures persists in northwest Colorado. As such, Freeze Warnings remain in effect for overnight tonight. Today's high temperatures will be well below normal, but the upcoming pattern shift will raise high temperatures to above normal by Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 521 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Gusty winds are coming to an end at most terminals as we move into the evening hours. Winds will be generally light and terrain driven overnight and into the morning hours, before gusty (20-25 kts) winds pick up again Wednesday afternoon. Some showers are expected to develop at KASE, KGUC, and KTEX Wednesday morning into the afternoon. There is a possibility for cigs to fall below ILS breakpoints where shower activity is present. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible during this time period at those sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ001-002. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TGJT AVIATION...TGJT  416 FXUS63 KFSD 192325 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 625 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Sprinkles are possible this afternoon across southwestern Minnesota and adjacent portions of South Dakota and Iowa. - Frost and freeze conditions are expected tonight into early Wednesday morning across the area - take precautions to protect sensitive vegetation. Frost/Freeze headlines go into effect late tonight. - Cooler conditions continue this week. Dry weather expected mid week. Another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms is expected from Thursday afternoon through Friday. Severe weather is unlikely. Ensemble output suggest about a 10 to 30 percent chance for a half an inch of rain during this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Cool high pressure settles into the area tonight and will bring a very good chance for temperatures tall to or below 35 for most of the area with temperatures at or below freezing possible north of I- 90. Thus a freeze warning is in place for highway 14 and nearby locations in SD with a frost advisory for the remainder of the area. Isolated pockets of fog will be possible early Wednesday morning but at this time it does not appear as though it will become more widespread. A weak wave will move through the area on Wednesday which could bring a few sprinkles but overall should mainly be an increase in mid level clouds. Otherwise slightly more mild temperatures are expected as southerly flow develops and brings highs back into the 60s for most locations. Another weak wave moves across NE on Thursday and could bring some light showers to the Missouri River corridor into northwest IA. Precipitation amounts will be light as moisture with the system is very limited. A bit stronger and more negatively tilted system will swing through on Friday bringing the next best chance for rainfall. Instability very minor with CAPE values generally 500 J/kg or less. The model soundings do indicate the potential for some efficient rainfall however so maybe some half inch or so amounts will be possible. The latest ensemble output indicating about a 10 to 30 percent chance for more than a half an inch and the latest Nam is indicating a couple of areas with more than a half an inch. Long story short, only minor impacts expected with no severe weather. As this system moves northeast and out of the area a few lingering showers will be possible on Saturday, but warmer temperatures will begin to work into the region. Sunday through the middle of next week will see troughiness to the west and ridging to the east, leaving the area in warmer southerly flow. While there is very little agreement, there should be a couple of weaker waves that could bring showers and thunderstorms to the area, but for now confidence is too low to include in the forecast. Otherwise highs should be in the 80s with lows mainly in the 50s Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions will continue this TAF period. Besides some diurnally driven cumulus this afternoon, not expecting any aviation concerns. Otherwise, decreasing northwesterly winds will become more light and variable overnight with an approaching surface high. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for SDZ050- 054>071. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for SDZ038>040- 052-053. MN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ071-072- 080-081-089-090-097-098. IA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for IAZ001>003- 012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ013-014. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...05  446 FXUS63 KLBF 192325 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 625 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances increase Wednesday and then again Thursday night into Friday. Some decent rainfall amounts, possibly over one- half inch are possible in spots. - A warming trend is then expected through the weekend. Highs will climb from the 70s Sunday into the 80s Sunday and Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 High pressure will settle southward across Minnesota and Iowa tonight into Wednesday morning. Aloft, southwest flow will be dominate across the region ahead of a shortwave crossing the Intermountain West. Have issued a frost advisory for portions of north central Nebraska late tonight till just after sunrise Wednesday morning. This area will be the last to see an increase in cloudiness as the shortwave approaches the area late tonight. The increase in cloud should keep the rest of the area in the mid to upper 30s and frost free. As mentioned, clouds will increase, and will be a cloudy day Wednesday. Rain chances will also be on the increase. As the shortwave trough approaches from the west, mid-level WAA will be on the increase. An area of mid-level FGEN also develops, and should see a northeast to southwest band of light to perhaps briefly moderate rain develop in the morning and then begin to decrease by later in the afternoon as the FGEN weakens. As for amounts, fairly high probabilities of one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch. This would most favor southwest Nebraska. Skies clear some as the shortwave moves east of the area Wednesday night. At this time, looks like temperatures will remain above any frost potential. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The next system is already on the horizon Thursday through Friday. The probability of seeing some decent rainfall amounts is on the increase. This is supported by both the 19/12Z NAM and ECMWF which dig a negatively tilted trough farther southward into Colorado Thursday night, and then pivots northeastward across the Central Plains Friday. Looking at the various ensemble suites, confidence is high in much of the area receiving at least one-quarter of an inch, with some locations likely to exceed one-half inch of rainfall. System weakens across the area Saturday with a subtle upper trough still located over the area. Lingering cloud cover and a few isolated showers will start the Memorial Day weekend. Ridging aloft then builds across the area Sunday into Monday with a couple of very nice days expected Sunday into Monday. In fact, will become quite warm by Monday, as highs climb from the lower 80s Sunday and into mid and upper 80s Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through tonight across all of western and north central Nebraska. A weather disturbance will approach the area tonight, with showers developing Wednesday morning across southwest Nebraska into the Sandhills. MVFR ceilings will develop across southwest NE after 15Z Wednesday and spread into the Sandhills in the afternoon. Surface winds will be light east to southeast tonight, then south on Wednesday. Gusts up to 25kts expected across northern NE after 18Z, including the KVTN terminal. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ006-007- 009-010-028-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...Taylor AVIATION...Roberg  433 FXUS65 KCYS 192325 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 525 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chilly temperatures will continue for the next several days. Another round of freezing temperatures is expected Wednesday morning in areas with snow cover, with patchy frost and fog elsewhere. - Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue through Wednesday night. A more widespread round of showers is expected Thursday into Friday. - Above average temperatures and pleasant weather expected for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Chilly and unsettled weather will continue for the next several days as temperatures will be slow to return back to seasonal averages. Broad troughing will remain over the west through the end of the work week, with a series of weak vort-maxes providing limited precipitation potential. The cold surface high pressure system is located over the central and northern plains, keeping fairly light winds and cold temperatures over the area today. Visible satellite imagery shows plentiful snow cover lingering over portions of Carbon, Albany, and Converse counties. Meanwhile, a weak shortwave located over eastern Utah is supporting modest isentropic lift just to our south. This lift will very slowly creep north and eastward overnight and into Wednesday morning, which will support some isolated light shower activity through the period. This afternoon, expect this to be mainly in Albany and Laramie counties, but this will spread north and east overnight and into Wednesday morning. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible. As the mid-level lift pushes into our area, the surface high will retreat to the east, initiating southerly winds over much of the High Plains tonight. With moisture remaining quite elevated, we will need to watch for some fog tonight. Along and east of the Laramie Range, this will be upslope fog, whereas areas further west can expect some patchy radiation fog thanks to clearing skies, lingering moisture, and snow cover. Carbon, Albany, and Converse counties are more likely to remain clear overnight, and with the snow cover and light winds, another cold night is anticipated. Rawlins not only obliterated their daily record low this morning by dropping to 8F, but they also broke the previous monthly record low for May! Tonight will not be quite as cold, but a daily record low is still forecast for Rawlins again. Existing Freeze Watches were upgraded to a Freeze Warning for these areas. In addition, a Frost Advisory was spread one row of zones eastward. Current thinking is that further east, there will be enough cloud cover to prevent widespread frost issues, but the cloud deck edge main remain east of Platte and Niobrara counties. If clouds remain more limited than anticipated, frost could spread eastward, which will be monitored this evening. Wednesday will remain cool relative to seasonal averages with plenty of cloud cover, especially east of the Laramie Range. Drier air will start to move into our western zones, which will set up a dry-line / wind shift boundary somewhere in between the Laramie Range and the Wyoming/Nebraska state line. Some limited instability will setup along this boundary. While forcing looks quite limited, we may manage to kick off an isolated storm or two. PoPs generally remain between 20 and 40%. With moisture remaining elevated over the High Plains, we'll be looking at another chance for some fog and low clouds Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Frost and freeze concerns will be more limited, mainly in Converse, Carbon, and Albany counties, though increasing cloud cover will keep temperatures warmer than the preceding few nights. By Thursday, a more potent upper level low will dive down from Canada across the northern Rockies. This will be slow moving, pushing a few showers into our western zones during the morning hours. The dryline and wind shift boundary should remain in place into Thursday but it may be a little more diffuse. The main forcing with the upper level trough and strong isentropic lift looks to be fairly well timed with daytime heating, arriving in the early to mid afternoon hours. Expect numerous showers with isolated to scattered embedded thunderstorms to expand in coverage through the afternoon hours and into the evening. Instability looks relatively unimpressive, around the 400 to 800 J/kg range, but a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out. Coverage of rainfall should be fairly good with this event. Most of the area has a 60% or greater chance for wetting rainfall (0.1" or more). For once, the higher probabilities are actually located in the Nebraska panhandle thanks to the instability and ample low-level moisture present. Shower activity will likely continue well into the night, and possibly even into Friday morning before the potent upper level low clears to the east and brings precipitation to an end. PoPs are fairly aggressive now, around 60 to 80% for most of the area, but this was toned down slightly from the NBM. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 The long term should be a mostly quiet weather period with some initial precipitation on Friday leading to warm and dry conditions by the weekend. Friday starts on the backside of a quick moving clipper system that will see widespread shower and some thunderstorm chances across the CWA. Thankfully this activity will be mostly passing in nature with limited instability and support for stronger activity, and by peak heating later in the day the best forcing should be far enough east that activity will be lessening to dissipating across the region. Into the weekend and early next week the upper levels will see a weak ridge of high pressure take control that will keep us mostly clear and increase temperatures. While some passing showers may be possible, it will be mostly relegated to the high terrain from orographic flow as stronger systems and better moisture are not expected until beyond the long term. Otherwise this will lead to the return of warmer conditions, with spring like temperatures in the 50's to 60's on Friday giving way to 70's and 80's by Sunday and Monday, with a chance for our eastern zones possibly peaking into the 90's on Monday. With the increasing warmth comes decreasing moisture, and enhanced fire weather concerns may return for the Nebraska Panhandle Sunday and Monday as moisture has not been notable enough to produce significant greenup as of this writing. While winds are currently expected to remain too weak to produce critical fire weather concerns, the dry nature of the region will still be conducive of problematic control problems if new fires do start up. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 525 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals through this evening along with light winds. Precipitation chances will once again be on the uptick, first for KCYS starting between 03 and 06Z, then spreading east into the Nebraska Panhandle between 12 and 15Z, with KAIA and KSNY having the best chances. This precipitation will bring in lower CIGs and reduced VIS, which could make flight categories dip down to MVFR and/or IFR conditions. Winds will ramp up again, starting around 12Z across southeast Wyoming and between 15 and 18Z for the Nebraska sites. So, expect gusty southerly winds between 20 to 30 knots. With the added moisture that we've seen across southeast Wyoming over the past day or so, FG once again may be possible, greatest chance at KRWL this evening/tonight. So, VCFG remains in the KRWL TAF, while it was kept out of KLAR and KCYS for now due to lower confidence. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for WYZ102-106-107-117. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for WYZ101-115. Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM MDT Wednesday for WYZ104-105-109>111-113-116. NE...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for NEZ095. && $$ SHORT TERM...MN LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...RZ  595 FXUS62 KCHS 192327 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 727 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Aviation section has been updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Rain chances likely to increase late in the week, though no hazardous weather is anticipated at this time. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain chances likely to increase late in the week, though no hazardous weather is anticipated at this time. Aloft, strong ridging will remain in place across the western Atlantic and the Southeast U.S. At the surface, a cold front will push toward the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday before stalling Thursday, then gradually sagging south into the Carolinas Friday as a wedge pattern develops. The front is then expected to lift north as a warm front this weekend. As this front approaches and lingers, moisture will gradually rise along with increasing rain chances beginning Thursday and continuing into the weekend. However, the exact position of the front and how far south it progresses will be the key factor in determining rainfall coverage and amounts across the area. Current trends continue to favor a strong Atlantic ridge, which should keep the front displaced to the west and north of the forecast area. As a result, a drier solution is becoming more likely. Ensemble guidance now indicates probabilities for rainfall amounts exceeding one inch through Saturday have decreased to below 25%, with the highest chances generally confined to areas farther inland near the stalled boundary. While confidence is increasing in a lower-impact rainfall scenario, some uncertainty still exists given potential shifts in the front over the coming days. Regarding severe weather, the better moisture and instability are expected to remain to the north and west. Combined with weak large-scale forcing and shear, the severe weather threat remains low through the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 00Z TAFs: Mainly VFR. Though, shallow ground fog will be possible for a few hours early Wednesday morning. Extended Aviation Outlook: There are no high confidence concerns. && .MARINE... Tonight: Quiet conditions will persist with the region positioned along the western flanks of Atlantic high pressure centered well offshore. East/southeast winds will prevail with speeds less than 15 kt. Seas will average 2-4 ft. Wednesday through Sunday: No marine concerns are expected. High pressure to the east will drive onshore east-southeasterly flow each day, with wind speeds mostly topping out in the 10-15 knot range. Each afternoon and evening there could be some local enhancement along the land/sea interface with the diurnal sea breeze. Seas will average 2-4 feet through the period. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$  485 FXUS62 KGSP 192326 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 726 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The forecast continues to trend wetter and cooler late this week through the weekend. The aviation discussion was updated to reflect the 00Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A cold front will approach the area tomorrow and then stall nearby through the weekend bringing a cooler and wetter forecast. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: A cold front will approach the area tomorrow and then stall nearby through the weekend bringing a cooler and wetter forecast. The synoptic pattern currently features upper ridging extending along the east coast with an upper low associated with a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) just off the southeast coast. Farther upstream, broad troughing extends from the west coast through the Mississippi Valley with a plethora as embedded waves and impulses. A surface cold front is also draped along the Ohio Valley and is slowly making its way southeast towards the Appalachians. Heading into tomorrow, the upper ridge will begin to break down and shift offshore with at least some degree of weak moisture return continuing into the Carolinas. At least one more hot day is expected on Wednesday with upper 80s to low 90s common. As the cold front pushes into Tennessee, a few isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible across the mountains. While some timing uncertainty remains, guidance is in generally good agreement that the front will push into the area on Thursday with greater coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. By Friday into the weekend, a sprawling surface high slides out of the Great Lakes and into New England and southeast Canada. This allow for at least a weak cold air damming wedge to set up shop and persist perhaps through the weekend and into the start of next week. By this time, deep layer southwest flow is progged to reside from the Gulf Coast into the Mid-Atlantic with several embedded perturbations. Associated moisture and bouts of forcing combined with ascent atop the wedge boundary is expected to keep a noticeably wetter and cooler pattern in place for at least several days. This will feature highs in the mid 70s to low 80s with daily rain chances. No organized severe weather threat or flooding threat is apparent at this time, just a beneficial rain that will at a very minimum help keep the drought from getting worse. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions expected to continue at all terminals through the period. An area of thick cirrus will persist over the mountains and western Upstate, but should thin out by daybreak Wednesday. A little more low-level moisture will work in from the southwest ahead of an approaching cold front. This should produce a few to scattered Cu field across most of the area, with thickest clouds over the mountains. Isolated to widely scattered SHRA and TSRA expected in the mountains, mostly near the TN border. But there is about a 30 percent chance convection makes it to KAVL, so will add a PROB30 for early tomorrow evening. Otherwise, winds will be generally light and out of the southwest. Outlook: An approaching front and increasing moisture will bring a more active pattern for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms beginning Thursday afternoon and then continuing through the end of the week. Cold-air damming may produce widespread MVFR to IFR cigs thru the day Friday. The potential for overnight fog/low clouds will increase through the period as well. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ ARK/TW  488 FXUS62 KMLB 192326 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 726 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 327 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 - Continued high risk for life-threatening rip currents at all central Florida Atlantic beaches. Entering the dangerous surf is strongly discouraged! - Humidity increases late week into the weekend, leading to heat index values near or above 100 degrees. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk is forecast across east central Florida. - Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue each day, moving inland toward the west Florida coast by the afternoon and evening. Overall, many locations will stay dry. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Now-Tonight...Isolated, east-to-west-moving showers are developing this afternoon in the presence of 1.5-1.6" PW (GOES imagery). Some cells have produced lightning, more so after reaching interior portions of east-central Florida (north side of Lake Okeechobee and northwest of Orlando). About 400 miles to the east of Cape Canaveral, satellite imagery clearly outlines a spinning upper low and weak surface trough. Persistent easterlies, sufficient moisture, and perhaps a small influence from this offshore feature are even supporting isolated shower development at the coast as of 2 PM. CAMs have struggled to resolve this shallow-layer precipitation for the last 24 hours, so decided to update the forecast with a low rain chance over the waters and immediate coast through tonight into Wednesday morning. Rain will be hit or miss for most locations with the greatest chances (30%) focused well inland. Any deeper convection is expected along the west coast of FL into this evening. Overnight lows settle into the low 70s inland but will remain in the mid to upper 70s along the coast. At the beaches, a high risk of life-threatening rip currents continues. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged! Wednesday-Tuesday (modified)...The surface ridge remains over the western Atlantic through the period, with its axis stretched generally towards the Carolinas into the weekend. Aloft, the aforementioned mid to upper level low drifts towards the east coast of Florida through Thursday-Friday before it weakens and ridging restrengthens this weekend into next week. Overall, little change is expected to the Florida peninsula's weather pattern over the next seven days. East to southeast flow increases to around 15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph each afternoon, especially behind the sea breeze. Embedded isolated to scattered showers and a few storms will remain possible during the overnight and early morning hours, occasionally drifting onshore, especially south of Cape Canaveral. Then, convection focuses over the interior or western half of the peninsula, with the greatest coverage of showers and storms along the sea breeze collision in the late afternoon and evening. Rain chances are generally 15-30% through the rest of the work week before moisture increases a bit this weekend. Rain chances tick upward toward 30-50%, but again, not everywhere will see measurable rainfall. Lingering drier air in the mid-levels could support a few strong wind gusts in any more developed storms through Friday before increasing moisture and warming 500mb temperatures reduce that threat into the weekend. Onshore flow keeps high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s each day. However, this will also lead to overnight lows remaining in the mid/upper 70s, at times even near 80 along the immediate coast. As moisture increases into the weekend, so do heat indices, which creep into the upper 90s to low 100s. Humid conditions and little relief overnight will lead to increasing coverage of Moderate HeatRisk and even a developing Major HeatRisk for several ECFL locations (including the Orlando metro). Use caution during the heat of the day, especially this weekend, by staying hydrated and taking breaks in an air-conditioned space. A high risk or high-end moderate risk for rip currents looks to continue through the week into the weekend, thanks to onshore flow. && .MARINE... Issued at 327 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 East-southeasterly flow continues with largely favorable boating conditions this week into the weekend. Moderate breezes with occasional gusts 15-20 kt are forecast each day, along with isolated/scattered shower and lightning storm chances. The greater risk for rain and storms will be over the FL Peninsula as the east coast breeze moves westward in the afternoon/evening. However, shallow, low-level moisture will support at least isolated showers through the weekend. Seas generally 2-4 ft, up to 5 ft occasionally well offshore. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 721 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. East winds 10-15 KT this afternoon with locally higher gusts will decrease to around 5 KT overnight. East to east-southeast winds will increase to around 10 KT by 14Z and then increase to 8-12 KT with gusts to around 20 KT in the afternoon with the east coast sea breeze. Much like today, scattered showers will be moving onshore through the morning/early afternoon before transitioning to the interior with the inland moving sea breeze in the afternoon. Have included VCSH wording along the coast starting at 14Z and then transitioning to the interior at 20/21Z. Isolated showers will continue to push along the coast through tomorrow night. However timing and coverage are too low to warrant VC wording at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 72 87 72 89 / 20 20 0 10 MCO 71 91 72 91 / 0 30 10 30 MLB 76 86 76 88 / 20 20 10 20 VRB 75 87 75 88 / 20 20 10 20 LEE 71 91 72 92 / 0 20 10 20 SFB 71 91 72 92 / 0 30 10 30 ORL 72 91 72 91 / 0 30 10 30 FPR 74 87 74 88 / 20 20 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schaper AVIATION...Watson  469 FXUS63 KLOT 192326 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 626 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry but cooler conditions Wednesday and Thursday, followed by increasing rain chances Friday. - Intermittent shower/thunderstorm chances for Memorial Day weekend, though much of the period should be dry. - Several periods of moderate to high swim risk conditions possible through early next week due to persistent northeast winds over Lake Michigan. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front currently nearing the I-39 corridor across the western CWA will shift eastward across the forecast area through the remainder of the afternoon. With the combination of an outflow boundary early this morning now east of I-57, increasing low-level cloud cover, and 600-800 hPa warming, the potential for any storms or appreciable heavier showers appears to be confined to the extreme southeast CWA (south of a Paxton to Rensselaer line) for the next few hours. Otherwise, spotty shallow showers remain possible anywhere ahead of the cold front through the daytime hours. Though the front will track well south and east of the area tonight, modest low-level frontogenesis in response to a broad mid to upper- level jet may yield either a few light showers or a band of light rain across the far southern CWA overnight into mid-morning Wednesday. High pressure will expand across the northern Great Lakes Wednesday through Thursday. Expect dry but cooler conditions amid persistent northeast winds through this period. A Pacific wave off the Baja of California will bring an area of increased mid-level moisture across the central CONUS late this week as low-level Gulf moisture is drawn northward toward the mid- Mississippi River Valley. Though stout low-level drying from the northeast over the Great Lakes will impede the initial northward extent of rain on Friday, the overall translation of deep moisture northward should overcome the low-level dry air and bring an area of rain across most of the area by late Friday. Poor mid-level lapse rates will greatly limit thunderstorm chances. A gradual warmup appears in store this weekend into early next week as broad ridging builds over the north-central CONUS. However, there remains substantial model disagreement as to whether a larger southwest CONUS trough late this week becomes cut-off over the southern Plains/Texas or remains loosely tied to the western edge of the ridge. The latter solution would bring cooler and more unsettled weather to the area late in the weekend and delay any potential warm- up to next week. As an added note, we are nearing the start of the Beach Hazards season. Given the potential for multiple periods of northeast winds and higher waves this week/weekend into next week, swim risk messaging may need to increase in the next couple days. Kluber && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Key Aviation Messages for the current TAF period: - MVFR cigs may be observed at times through tomorrow morning Gusty west winds will slowly diminish this evening and turn to the northwest in the wake of a cold front passing east of the area. Occasional gusts to 20 knots are possible through 3Z tonight, but not persistent enough for mention in the TAF. Isolated showers are still possible this evening, but the probability of any one of them passing directly over a terminal is too low for mention in the TAFs. Additionally, most of the development and movement should be to the south and east of any of the terminals, giving further confidence to keep the TAFs dry. Ceilings are expected to hover between 2500 to 3000 feet through this evening. There is a chance for higher level MVFR cigs to linger through the overnight period. There is high confidence in a return to VFR by Wednesday morning, but lower confidence in when/if MVFR cigs lift overnight. Winds will turn to the northeast tomorrow morning. Occasional gusts to 20 knots are possible. DK && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 4 AM CDT Thursday for the IL nearshore waters. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 4 AM CDT Thursday for the IN nearshore waters. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  495 FXUS64 KSHV 192326 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 626 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening, particularly across the northwestern ArkLaTex. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats, and a spin-up tornado or two is not out of the question, - Widespread rainfall will continue on a daily basis through the course of the next seven days, resulting in total accumulations of 4 to 7 inches. - As soils become saturated from repeated rounds of rainfall, the risk of flash flooding will become a concern through late this week and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An initial wave of showers and thunderstorms is pushing through extreme southeast Oklahoma into southwest Arkansas at this hour, along a boundary out ahead out the main cold front draped across southern Oklahoma and north Texas. As the front pushes east and south today, a complex of strong to severe thunderstorms will develop further along the front's southern extent, advancing into the ArkLaTex this afternoon into the evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the principal hazard, along with large hail north. The threat for tornadoes is comparably low, though a brief spin-up is not out of the question altogether. Finally, training areas of heavy rainfall may lead to localized flash flooding, particularly in urban areas across the western ArkLaTex. Today's wave of strong thunderstorms should run its course by late this evening, diminishing in intensity as it makes southeastward progress, but the rainfall will just be beginning, as the front responsible for the storms slows its progress and becomes nearly stationary, stalling near or along the I-20 corridor. A series of weak upper level disturbances embedded in the southwest flow will trek northeastward over the region through the remainder of the week and into the weekend, tapping into the firehose of moisture which will be aimed at the ArkLaTex throughout the course of this forecast period. It bears mentioning that this does not mean a week's worth of continuous rainfall, per se, but we do expect frequent enough impulses to result in high confidence of at least daily rounds of showers and a few rumbles of thunder. The persistent nature of this set up is also elevating the potential for flash flooding. The ArkLaTex is included in at least lower-end risk flood outlooks through the remainder of the week. The most recent accumulation forecast totals suggest at least 4 inches of rain across the region, with the highest totals in the 5 to 7 inch range. Bear in mind, these totals will be accumulated through the course of the next 7 days, not in a single event, but as soils become saturated with daily rainfall by late this week, it will not take as much additional rain to result in flooding. Reinforced by southerly flow, warm conditions will continue this afternoon, before this wet pattern puts a dent in the well-above average temperatures of the past few days. Highs will settle into the low to middle 80s by late in the week, with lows in the 60s throughout. /26/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Lingering rain with embedded thunder to quickly diminish through the evening hours allowing for muggy conditions resulting in MVFR ceilings areawide. Ceilings to persist through 20/15Z with gradual improvement to VFR through the afternoon with the possibility of VCTS conditions across LFK. Otherwise, light winds tonight to become northeast at 6 knots on Wednesday. /05/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Spotter activation may be needed areawide through early this evening. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 69 84 68 81 / 70 50 50 90 MLU 70 85 69 84 / 80 60 70 90 DEQ 64 82 64 76 / 30 30 40 80 TXK 67 84 67 79 / 60 40 50 90 ELD 66 83 65 80 / 80 50 50 90 TYR 68 82 68 79 / 60 40 50 90 GGG 69 83 68 81 / 70 40 50 90 LFK 71 84 70 82 / 80 50 40 90 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...26 AVIATION...05  499 FXUS66 KMTR 192326 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 426 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 138 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 - Diurnally driven winds expected this week, with onshore winds during the afternoon and early evening. - Above normal temperatures continue through midweek with seasonal temperatures returning late week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 138 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 (This evening through Wednesday) Winds have eased across the region with most sites currently reporting light offshore winds under 10 mph. Breezy, onshore afternoon winds are likely along the coast and within mountain gaps/passes. Not too much change to the overall synoptic pattern, broad upper level troughing continues over the western United States with an area of ridging and surface high pressure to our west over the Pacific. The center of the upper level trough continues to progress eastward with the surface pressure gradient becoming more relaxed, allowing wind speeds to diminish overall. The marine layer continues to be mixed out thanks to high pressure offshore which is allowing warmer temperatures to spread across the region. High temperatures will be seasonably warm today and again tomorrow with interior highs in the 80s to possibly the low 90s and coastal highs in the 60s to 70s. Critically dry conditions continue across the interior with the majority of stations reporting RH values in the 10s to 20s. Not much relief from drier conditions has been observed overnight with most sites only seeing overnight humidity recoveries to around 20-30%. This same pattern is expected to continue again on Wednesday with no real relief until the marine layer redevelops late week into the weekend. Fire weather concerns thus remain elevated given the critically dry conditions across the interior. If you are participating in any outdoor activities involving sparks or flame, exercise caution and be aware that fine fuels are very flammable at this time. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 138 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday) The general pattern remains the same through Thursday with high temperatures in the 80s to low 90s across the interior, 60s to 70s along the coast, diurnally breezy winds, and critically dry daytime conditions across the interior. A gradual pattern change will begin Thursday into Friday, becoming more noticeable over the weekend, as high pressure weakens, shifting west, and broad troughing dominates the West Coast. Winds will generally shift onshore again by Friday with a shallow marine layer redeveloping. High temperatures will generally drop into the 70s across the interior and 70s to mid 80s across the interior Central Coast while coastal highs stay in the 50s to 60s. As the marine layer redevelops, we will see improving humidity values across the interior which will reduce our overall fire weather concerns. Initially the marine layer will be around 500 ft Thursday into Friday but is expected to deepen to around 1000 ft by the weekend. Diurnally breezy afternoon/evening winds continue with breezier winds along the coast and in mountain gaps/passes. The initial NBM forecast shows temperatures warming back into the 80s by early next week. The caveat to this is that models are split between upper level ridging and upper level troughing developing over the West Coast towards the end of May. If ridging is able to develop, warmer temperatures are likely to round out the month but if troughing is able to develop then slightly cooler temperatures are more likely. In the troughing scenario, there is the possibility of some light rain but the more likely setup is a deep marine layer and coastal drizzle. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 421 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 Currently VFR at all terminals. Moderate to high confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF period. Winds may become calm and/or light and variable overnight. Low to moderate (up to 40%) chance of sub-VFR conditions developing at terminals tonight with the best chances between 12Z and 16Z. Coastal terminals will be at greatest risk with risk decreasing for bayshore and interior terminals, respectively. To even get there, it will have to either be advected or dew points need to increase, a lot. The question will be if this can happen before sunrise. If it can't, the probability of occurrence becomes even less. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. Moderate to high confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF period. Low probability for sub-VFR conditions to develop at the terminal with the compressed (LIFR-IFR) marine layer unable to penetrate through the San Bruno Gap. Reasonable worst case scenario is stratus sneaks through the Golden Gate Gap and brings FEW/SCT to the north side of the terminal. SFO Bridge Approach...The San Mateo Bridge Approach has a lower probability of sub-VFR conditions. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow at both terminals. Moderate to high confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF period. If a ceiling were to develop, it will likely be on the cusp of IFR/LIFR and take place in the 12Z-16Z time range. Fog is less likely, but some of the most pessimistic guidance has it. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 421 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 The northern outer waters will continue to see fresh northerly breezes with hazardous conditions through Thursday morning. The northerly breezes will also combine with an increasing northwest swell through Thursday morning with seas up to 12ft. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  666 FXUS63 KEAX 192329 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 629 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...Updated 00z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of flooding along rivers and low lying areas continue. Many rivers should recede back below flood stage by the end of the week*. *Dependent on precipitation forecasts. - A cooler quieter pattern sets in for the next couple days. Warmer temperatures and precipitation chances return Thursday night into Friday (40% to 80%) with intermittent precipitation chances continuing through the weekend (20% to 30%). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Overcast skies and drizzle dominate Tuesday across the region. A saturated low layer leftover from Monday night's storms and a notable inversion aloft keep misty conditions around until incremental bits of solar heating eventually make their way toward the surface heating up the air just enough to dissipate fog and mist later this afternoon. The compression under the inversion also keeps north winds fairly gusty around 15-25 MPH. Cooler and slightly quieter conditions are expected for the next few days. High pressure builds in from interior Canada lowering temperatures from above normal to below normal. High temperatures in the upper 60s greatly contrast the 90s of last week. The upper level pattern continues to be punctuated by two stout yet relatively stationary systems. One, the Bermuda high off the SE CONUS coast and the second a deep, but sedentary trough near Baja California. These two features have been the primary influences on our weather pattern over the past several days, and tabbing through the extended forecast, that influence does not look to wane until the weekend. The Bermuda high's influence has weakened a bit which allowed the synoptic cold front to pass through last night bring the strong to severe and heavy rainfall. The trough across the SW CONUS remains stout ejecting shortwaves into the flow and keeping things slowly progressive. A more active weather pattern is expected to start later this week as a trough dips out of the northern Rockies Thursday. This tight pocket of CVA combined with a shortwave ejected from the stationary low in the SW CONUS brings the potential for shower development Thursday morning (40-60%). Further shortwave ejections spur the development of a lee trough which looks to bring increased opportunities (70-80%) for showers and thunderstorms late Thursday into Friday morning. This perturbation of the overall flow then facilitates the breakdown of the stationary SW CONUS trough mentioned earlier which proceeds to move it through the atmospheric current. Early projections show this cyclone remaining south of the area through the weekend as another complimentary wave across the northern CONUS prevents northward movement of the southern system. This does present some 20-30% probabilities for precipitation across the region through the weekend. Extended guidance points toward a more active pattern resuming across the continent after the holiday weekend as unblocked flow enables severals atmospheric waves to transit the region. Long range models show several opportunities for systems to pass by our area bringing opportunities for showers and thunderstorms to the edges of the region. The biggest concern with any additional rainfall is aggravation of the current flooding being seen in area creeks and streams. Fortunately, this midweek break should allow some of the swollen creeks and streams to recede back toward normal levels just before the next rounds of rain on Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 High pressure continues to move and pushes the MVFR cloud deck southeastward. This will last a few more hours at the KC Metro terminals. Light drizzle is possible in parts of Central Missouri through this evening, but this will also push southeastward. Once the ceilings clear, conditions are expected to return to VFR. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Pesel AVIATION...Krull  628 FXUS64 KLCH 192328 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 628 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - An unsettled pattern will be in place from late Tuesday into the weekend as the southern jet stream brings a series of upper level disturbances to work with a very moist air mass. - The showers and thunderstorms that develop will have the potential to produce high rain rates and there is a risk of heavy rainfall and a risk for flooding into early next week. - Temperatures will remain on the warm and humid side. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Midday surface analysis shows high pressure extending across the southeastern US from the Atlantic, while a cold front is draped from the Great Lakes to near DFW. The pressure gradient between these two features has again resulted in a somewhat breezy SE to S flow across the CWA today. Aloft, ridging dominates the east CONUS while troughing is over the Rockies, providing a W to SW flow overhead between these two features. A combination of southerly flow at the surface and southwesterly flow aloft will persist through the next several days, keeping a steady influx of warm, moist air into the region. In addition, a series of upper level shortwaves/disturbances are expected to pass overhead in the SWrly flow beginning tonight and continuing into the weekend, providing ample support for convection. Unsurprisingly, this combination of disturbances aloft and a steady stream of moisture throughout the column will bring about several days of warm and wet weather that will last through the end of the forecast period. Area radar this afternoon shows just a few isolated showers ongoing, amid otherwise cloudy skies. This trend should continue until later this evening/tonight, when the first in what is expected to be a series of MCS's arrives. CAMs are rather split on how much tonight's MCS actually holds together, with the HRRR keeping a strong line of storms all the way to the coast overnight, while other guidance shows part of the line tapering out/weakening as it draws closer to I-10. Regardless, this line will be accompanied by a chance for both excessive rainfall and severe weather, with damaging winds begin the main concern. SPC has backed off a bit, now including majority of the region (excluding lower Acadiana) in a Marginal Risk (previous SLGT Risk was trimmed back). On the other hand, WPC has bumped things up a bit, now outlining nearly all of SE TX in a Slight Risk with the remaining area in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall. Both of these risks will begin to ramp up this evening and continue through the early morning hours tomorrow, before another lull in convection arrives by sunrise. Tomorrow through Saturday, a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall exists area-wide each day as several more rounds of rainfall are expected. However, like today, periods of dry conditions will occur between rounds of showers and storms each day. While it won't be possible to predict who/where exactly will get rain each day, guidance is hitting hard on the largest rainfall totals occurring over SE TX and CENLA, with the lower end totals over Acadiana. Beyond Saturday, long range guidance shows little change in the overall pattern, with more upper level shortwaves arriving on Sun/Mon which will more than likely induce more rounds of showers and storms through Memorial Day. Temperature wise, very little day to day changes are expected as showers/cloud cover will keep highs in the mid 80s each day, while a warm and moist airmass will hold overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Daytime heating pop up showers or storms will continue until sundown or about 20/01z with VFR conditions away from the convection. Tonight there is a chance for a complex of thunderstorms ahead of a weak frontal boundary. May be some low visibility with heavy rain along with gusty winds. Tried to time the movement of the complex with the latest CAM guidance and with PROB30 groups. MVFR ceilings and visibility are likely during the overnight into around 20/14z Wednesday. Daytime heating will bring about another chance for showers and thunderstorms after 20/19z. 07/Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A light to moderate southeast to south flow around 5-15 kts and light to modest seas around 1-4 feet will persist through the week and into the weekend. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase by Wednesday and remain high through the week into the weekend as a stalled frontal boundary and a series of upper level disturbances produce several waves of precipitation. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A light to moderate southerly flow will continue through the next several days bringing in rich amounts of Gulf moisture. Afternoon Minimum RH values will be around 70 percent or greater each day through the weekend. High chances for daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through the week into early next week as a stalled frontal boundary and a series of upper level disturbances provide waves of precipitation each day. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17 AVIATION...07  673 FXUS64 KOHX 192329 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 629 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 625 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Above normal temperatures with 80s to low 90s today, then mostly low 80s the rest of the week. - There are medium to high rain chances each day. There is only a very low severe weather threat this evening. - There is a high chance for at least 2 inches of rain by the weekend, and a minor risk for flash flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1108 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Clouds associated with some thunderstorms are moving into the state this afternoon. This will end up being our possible severe threat into this evening, but it still does not look great. The severe threat is a slight risk, level 2 out of 5, but that risk level only covers a portion of the area. The remaining area along and west of I- 65 is under a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5). Things are still looking displaced, but looking at soundings, there is a marginal hail and wind threat around the Land Between The Lakes. Into Wednesday, the focus shifts away from severe weather and towards a flash flooding risk. PWATs continue to be anomalously high through the week, and there is potential for a situation where we get training cells over an area and see a large amount of precipitation as a result. This could result in some minor flooding in these areas. Confidence is increasing, but remains low, making this a medium impact, low probability outcome. We will continue to monitor the QPF over the coming days but use caution this week in areas that are prone to flooding. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1108 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The cold front will slowly pass through Middle Tennessee into Wednesday night, and is expected to stall out just to our south in northern Mississippi and Alabama. This will lead to another higher rain chance south of I-40 Thursday afternoon and evening. PWATs will remain on the higher side through the forecast period, and probabilities of greater than 2 inches of rain by the end of the weekend are still around that 50-70% range. Total QPF has gone up for the forecast period since yesterday, so we will continue to monitor the situation. Temperatures will drop a little after the front to the upper 70s and low 80s, but that's about it for the remainder of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Have made some adjustments to the TAF this period revolving around low confidence scattered storms over the next 24 hours. Biggest adjustments were at CKV regarding storms this evening and again tomorrow morning. Lower cats expected to settle into mid-state terminals tomorrow afternoon with MVFR first (~20-21Z) then IFR after 00z (30-hr BNA TAF, but heads up for other terminals). Winds will be light (less than 10 kts) throughout, but shift to the north tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 68 83 64 81 / 50 90 60 80 Clarksville 67 79 62 78 / 80 100 50 60 Crossville 64 82 61 79 / 20 80 50 90 Columbia 67 82 63 81 / 30 80 50 90 Cookeville 66 83 63 79 / 20 90 50 90 Jamestown 64 84 61 79 / 20 90 50 90 Lawrenceburg 67 82 63 80 / 20 90 50 80 Murfreesboro 68 84 63 82 / 20 80 60 90 Waverly 67 80 63 79 / 80 90 40 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Unger  638 FXUS64 KTSA 192328 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 628 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 625 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Lingering severe weather concerns across southeast Oklahoma will wind down this afternoon as a cold front exits the area. - Much cooler weather is expected through Thursday, with a slow warming trend then developing into next week. - Rain and thunder chances will continue daily for the next week, with the heaviest and most widespread rain Thursday into Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1134 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A strong cold front has now pushed through most of the forecast area with cooler northerly winds behind it. It will move out of southeast OK over the next two hours. Temperatures have cooled into the 50s to 60s for all areas except south of the front, where temperatures remain in the 70s. Lingering rain showers across much of the area will continue into the evening as warm and moist air rides over the elevated frontal surface, but should diminish in coverage somewhat with time. The severe weather threat will persist near the front for the next hour or two, and then diminish as the front moves south. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to reinvigorate along the upper level front late this evening and overnight, which will be near the I-44 corridor. Overnight lows will be in the 50s across much of northeast OK and northwest AR, with low 60s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1134 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Model guidance suggests Wednesday will be mostly dry, though a few light showers cannot be ruled out, especially during the morning hours. There will be a fairly wide range of temperatures, with upper 60s to low 70s in the north, and mid 70s to near 80 F in the south. Went slightly below NBM as its been much too warm with the airmass observed behind this front. By Thursday, our next storm cycle will begin taking shape, as a trough dives into the area from the northwest, merging with an existing weak low pressure over the Desert Southwest. This will increase both low level warm/moist advection and upper level shear. Multiple shortwaves will pass through the area, kicking off repeated rounds of showers and storms Thursday onwards. As of now, Thursday appears to be the day with most widespread and heaviest rainfall potential. It will remain similarly cool to Wednesday. Model timing uncertainty begins to grow into Friday, but as of now it appears the next most likely window for rain will be late Friday into Saturday morning, with another round Saturday into Sunday. Each of these rounds of precipitation will likely have embedded thunderstorms, but only a low chance for severe weather. If severe weather were to develop, Friday would be the most likely day. The main focus will likely be the heavy rain potential given weak but vertically deep cape and unusually high precipitable water values above 1.5 inches. Over time, depending on how much rain falls and where it falls, this could increase flash or river flood concerns. The pattern looks to remain unstable into the middle of next week with weak troughing keep precipitation chances above normal and temperatures mostly near normal. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Wide ranging mix of flight conditions ongoing across the local forecast area with the expected trend being MVFR to periodic IFR conditions overnight due to low ceilings and fog. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening primarily across E OK terminals with chances continuing and expanding through NW AR overnight. Overall expect low coverage of any heavier rains. Low ceilings likely continue through Wed morning with a slow improvement possible during the afternoon most likely from SE OK into west central AR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 56 70 60 73 / 70 20 60 90 FSM 65 80 64 76 / 60 30 30 60 MLC 60 77 63 75 / 40 30 40 90 BVO 51 67 56 71 / 70 10 50 90 FYV 59 74 60 75 / 70 30 20 70 BYV 59 70 58 73 / 70 30 20 50 MKO 58 75 62 73 / 70 20 50 80 MIO 55 67 56 72 / 70 20 40 80 F10 57 73 61 73 / 40 20 60 90 HHW 64 79 64 74 / 40 30 40 90 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...07  873 FXUS63 KGID 192331 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 631 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost Advisory tonight into Wednesday morning for areas near/north of Highway 92. - Light rain is expected in western areas during the day Wednesday. A few showers and thunderstorms (non-severe) move in from the west Wednesday night. - Additional showers/t-storms Thursday evening through Friday. The threat for severe weather remains low. - A drying and warming trend is expected this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Temperatures remain relatively cool today behind the system that resulted in multiple rounds of severe weather over the last 3-4 days. Tonight, temperatures are anticipated to drop into the 30s and 40s, aided by light winds and mostly clear skies under surface high pressure. Clouds are then anticipated to increase early Wednesday morning, which should keep temperatures from dropping much below 35 degrees. Nevertheless, this may result in some frost formation, potentially damaging sensitive plants in areas near/north of Highway 92. The Frost Advisory area is "generous," mainly because we are so far into the growing season already. Many areas, especially in southern parts of Howard, Sherman, and Nance counties, likely will not see any frost impact. Wednesday will remain cool, and rain is expected to slide in from the west as an upper trough pushes into the central Plains. Many areas will remain dry, but western zones could pick up 0.05-0.15". Later Wednesday night into Thursday morning, isolated to scattered showers/t-storms become possible, but instability is very limited and no severe weather is expected. Late Thursday night into Friday, another shortwave is expected to cross the northern Plains, bringing more widespread chances for rain and thunderstorms to the region. The severe threat remains minimal, but this COULD bring some relief to drought- stricken areas of western Nebraska. Low rain chances linger on Saturday, but overall things will trend drier and warmer for the Memorial Day weekend as upper level ridging returns to the north/central Plains. After almost a week of near to below- normal temperatures, 80s are expected to return for Sunday-Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will weaken and become easterly by 06z. Southeast to south winds are expected by 15z then winds will again strengthen a little and become easterly by 21z. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ039>041- 046-047. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Schuldt  765 FXUS63 KLMK 192330 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 730 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Scattered storms this afternoon followed by a more prominent line of storms this evening will bring heavy downpours and severe potential for severe wind gusts and small hail. Southern IN counties and KY counties that border the Ohio have the best potential. * There is flooding potential for the storms that move through tonight, especially in our southern IN counties. * Another surge of moisture moves in by Wednesday morning, keeping clouds and rain for everyone and scattered storms for eastern locations by the afternoon. * Busy weather pattern sets up Wednesday through the remainder of the week, with widespread moderate rainfall expected Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 344 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Currently, temperatures are warm in the mid to upper 80s with mixed cloud cover area wide. A few communities have already seen rain today from two axis of showers and storms trying to form in our western and eastern counties. The severe threat for strong to severe gusty winds aren't expected from these ongoing storms, at least not until later this evening from an approaching line of storms from the northwest. However, what is popping up on radar still has the potential for some small hail stones and gusty winds before the main event arrives. The synoptic setup features troughing in the Plains with continued ridging in the east. The overall weather pattern though will be changing as early as tonight as a trailing cold front from a surface low up in southern Canada will move across the Ohio Valley this evening through Wednesday afternoon. This front is very slow, and will help initiate a line of storms across the Midwest that will move into our CWA this evening. This more prominent line of storms, preceded by pop up storms ahead of the main line, will move in from the northwest well ahead of the cold front. There is plenty of SBCAPE for this line to tap into however as they approach and develop near our CWA, the best shear will move north into the Great Lakes and Southern Canada. Once evening sits in as the storms move in, this means they will slowly be weakening as they trek across our counties. Despite this, multi- cell clusters forming into bowing line segments are possible bringing severe to strong gusty winds and small hail if some of the storms could grow tall enough. With CAPE values ranging 2500 - 3000 J/kg or higher this afternoon in southern IN and western KY, hail can't be ruled out. The highest severe threat is in southern IN and into KY counties bordering the Ohio. Additionally, PWAT values are running high ranging 1.5-2", favored in southern IN thanks to a surge of moisture from the SW. Dewpoints will be running high, meaning there is potential for additional flooding this afternoon/evening in the same areas that were hit hard last night, namely southern IN. As a result, a flood watch has been issued for all our southern Indiana counties including Trimble County as well. Our western KY counties are under the same SW plume of moisture too and will be monitored for flooding potential. Should more rain trend to fall in this area, the flood watch may need to be expanded. Rainfall totals are greatest in southern IN, western KY counties, and counties along the Ohio have a 70-80% chance of receiving ranging around 0.5 - 1", with localized areas of 2+" according to HREF LPMM data in training storms. Elsewhere in central/southern KY including cities like Lexington, rainfall totals will generally by around 0.25-0.5" or lower by early Wednesday morning. Temperatures will cool this evening into the 60s and 70s with weak winds and lowering cloud heights. Rain showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue tonight with spotty coverage until a weak developing low pushes up from Arkansas Wednesday morning following along our slow-moving cold front. This will keep a steady supply of moisture for everyone Wednesday morning. A few weak embedded storms and rumbles of thunder are possible then, especially in our far southeastern counties that may partially clear. Later in the afternoon with partial clearing, continued WAA in the east, and CAPE values nearing 1000+ J/kg, some gusty winds may be possible with a few of these storms, though we are not expecting severe weather with Wednesday's convection at this time. This may build up enough instability for a few storms to produce more lightning . As the developing surface low slowly moves east, so will any rain showers and weak storms exit to the east. Highs on Wednesday will vary generally northwest to southeast tomorrow as clouds and the cold front slowly marches eastward. Along and north of the Ohio, highs will be in the low to mid 70s with upper 70s to low 80s in our southeast border counties. Rain showers and storms end Wednesday night with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 344 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Thursday's weather seems a little drier compared to Wednesday as the cold front should clear or nearly clear our southern communities by morning. Since this front is stalling so close by, continued rain showers with low PoPs have been continued for our far southern areas, though rain totals look to remain low. Cloud cover remains throughout the day though, limiting our warming Thursday behind the front with highs in the low to upper 70s in a few places. By Friday, a trough exiting on the leeward side of the Rockies in the Mid-Plains will swing our front back north as a warm front with a returning surge of moisture from the southwest. EFI tables suggest a moderately high EFI values for QPF, meaning this incoming surge of moisture could produce a good amount of rain for drought stricken areas across all of the CWA. 25th and 75th percentile rainfall totals range from near 0.5" to 1" of rain during the day on Friday. Timing of this rainfall and when it ends is a little uncertain still, as it appears once Friday's trough clears, there is not much synoptic forcing to sweep the front out of the area. As a result, rain chances could continue into Saturday, further alluded to by moderately high EFI values for QPF Saturday. There is still high uncertainty with rain chances later in the weekend though as LREF clustering analysis shows high spread in the rainfall totals. Should another stalled out front form over KY, more rain is likely, but if the stalled out front moves well to our south, Sunday and early next week will begin dry. Temperature trends this weekend remain warm in the upper 70s to low 80s for highs. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 730 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently moving through the area producing heavy rain and gusty winds. Storms to the west are expected to congeal into a line and push through the area tonight. All sites have PROB30s for the forecast period as rain showers are expected to linger through the night. Winds are expected to be VRB as the cold front pushes through, and become more northerly by tomorrow. An overcast sky will remain for majority of the forecast period as this system moves through. Tonight into tomorrow morning ceilings will lower to roughly 1kft from NW to SE. A secondary SCT/BKN cloud deck around 800ft is possible temporarily with rain showers and storms. Lower vis is also expected with heavier rain showers and lower cloud decks.&& .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for KYZ032. IN...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for INZ076>079-083-084- 089>092. && $$ SHORT TERM...BKF LONG TERM...BKF AVIATION...CAL  772 FXUS64 KLUB 192330 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 630 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 630 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible across the Rolling Plains this evening. - Cooler temperatures and daily precipitation chances expected through early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The cold front has exited the region this morning leaving breezy north to northeasterly winds in its wake. These breezy winds are expected to continue for the next couple of hours. On the upper levels, a broad trough will persist across western CONUS. An embedded upper shortwave passing over the Rockies this afternoon will trigger the development of a surface low over northern New Mexico. As a result, winds will begin to shift to the east to southeast through the afternoon and evening. Winds are expected to weaken slightly with the shift in direction, however we will still see wind speeds of 10 to 20 mph the rest of the day. Despite the breezy winds this morning and early afternoon, the rest of today is expected to be pleasant. Cooler air following the front will bring a much needed break from the hot temperatures. Highs today will warm to the lower 70s to lower 80s once the clouds clear out. NBM has backed off on precipitation chances for this afternoon. However, an isolated thunderstorm or two remains possible across the southern and eastern Rolling Plains this evening. Any storms that do develop are expected to clear out of the region around midnight. The rest of the night will be quiet with lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s. The cooler temperatures will continue into Wednesday. The aforementioned upper trough will remain stagnant over western CONUS, however a secondary trough will dig down across western Canada before passing across the northern Rockies. This will trigger the development of another surface low Wednesday afternoon, this time over Colorado. This will keep moderate to slightly breezy east to southeasterly winds through the day. Plenty of moisture will fill in overnight due to southwesterly flow aloft and easterly surface flow resulting in mostly cloudy skies for most of Wednesday. Hindrance of daytime heating due to clouds and easterly winds will keep temperatures cooler with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through much of the day Wednesday. Upper lift will be provided by a jet associated with the upper trough over northcentral CONUS as well as a passing embedded shortwave. Storm chances are expected across northwestern zones Wednesday morning and expand across the rest of the region through the day. Moderate instability through the first half of the day will bring mostly rain showers. However, CAPE values increasing up to 1500-2000 J/kg later in the afternoon and evening could bring the chance for some severe thunderstorms. Only small to quarter size hail and some severe wind gusts are expected with any severe storms that develop. With PWAT values reaching up to 1.5", especially off the Caprock, we could see bouts of heavy rainfall with potential for some localized flooding Wednesday evening and overnight into Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The long term forecast will start off with the continuation of thunderstorm chances and heavy rain potential through much of the day Thursday as a passing shortwave prolongs upper forcing. The upper trough that was over northcentral CONUS will dig further south along the Rockies shifting upper winds aloft to the west by late afternoon. This will effectively cut off the subtropical moisture return. With the lack of available moisture, we will see a lull in precipitation chances overnight Thursday into Friday morning. As for temperatures, with the precipitation chances through much of the afternoon and lingering cloud cover, temperatures remain cool with highs in the 70s across the region. We will see a slight warm up on Friday with highs in the 80s. However, a cold front is progged to push through the region later Friday afternoon through the evening aiding in "cooling" temperatures again through the weekend although only to the upper 70s to lower 80s. Daily precipitation chances will be possible everyday through the rest of the long term. After the lull overnight Thursday through Friday morning, shower and thunderstorm chances return following the passage of the cold front. Precipitation chances will continue through the first half of next week with the passage of multiple upper shortwaves. The uncertainty at the moment will be the amount of moisture available for storm development with drier air aloft as westerly flow aloft prevails over the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR will prevail at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW through roughly 20/05Z, or midnight CDT, with low CIGs forecast to develop at all terminals during the predawn hours Wednesday. IFR CIGs will be accompanied by reductions to VSBYs as well. Easterly winds will become slightly breezy overnight, with CIGs gradually lifting by the late morning and early afternoon hours. VCSH cannot be ruled out during this time. By Wednesday afternoon, there exists a possibility for TSTMs to move over W TX and affect KLBB and KPVW into the evening. PROB30 groups have been assigned to those terminals for this TAF cycle. MVFR CIGs are forecast to linger at KLBB and KPVW through the end of the TAF period, with overcast lifting to VFR at KCDS by Wednesday afternoon. Sincavage && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...09  862 FXUS66 KMFR 192331 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 431 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .Update AVIATION Discussion... && .AVIATION...20/00Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail into this evening, then a weak impulse will pass over the region tonight, with a marine push expected through the morning hours. This will result in IFR/MVFR ceilings over the marine waters and along the coast, and eventually the coastal valleys and Umpqua Basin, including at North Bend and Roseburg. Marine layer depth (up to around 5000 feet) allows for the potential for some clouds to form and bank up against the Siskiyous Wednesday morning. These may cause local terrain obscuration but should be VFR above Medford. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail through Wednesday morning. -Spilde && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1259 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026/ KEY MESSAGES... - Warm, dry weather prevails through late this week and into this weekend. Warmest days Thu-Sun with temperatures about 10-15F above normal. - Afternoon/evening breezes should be fairly typical, though occasionally gusty along the coast. - While the warm, dry conditions elevate fire weather risk, fuels are still in green-up/curing process and present generally low to moderate fire danger. - Potential for a stronger trough early next week (Memorial Day) bringing precipitation potential, gusty winds and a cool down. DISCUSSION...High pressure and dry NW flow aloft will keep dry weather going through the remainder of this week along with a warming trend. Overall, high temperatures today and Wednesday will be a few to several degrees above normal, but warmer air aloft will bring temperatures around 10-15F above normal Thu-Sun. The air mass is pretty dry, but we'll get marine pushes from time to time that will bring bouts of nighttime/morning stratus to the coast, coastal valleys and Umpqua Basin. One such marine push is coming tonight, which could be deep enough to cause some spillover clouds around the Rogue Valley Wednesday morning, but that's about it. By Friday pm/eve, models are showing a weak impulse offshore and some moisture/weak instability near the NorCal mountains (mainly south of here -- Sierra). This raises the idea of thunder, but the probability of anything occurring this far north is 10% or less. Same goes for Saturday pm/eve. Looking ahead, there are indications that the ridge will begin to break down over the weekend, with the potential for a more robust trough to enter the Pacific Northwest around Memorial Day that could bring precipitation and cooler temperatures to the forecast area. Model suites still are not in solid agreement with this scenario, with several differences primarily in trough strength, but also its timing, so confidence is also still on the low side. This will warrant a close eye for those with plans for the Memorial Day holiday. Most inland areas should have a 5-10F cool down along with enhanced to locally gusty winds, and a chance of showers. -Spilde MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Tuesday, May 19, 2026...A thermal trough will bring gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas over the coastal waters through Friday night. Winds will be strongest and seas will be highest during the afternoons/evenings. Through this stretch, very steep seas of 10-12 ft are most likely south of Cape Blanco with steep seas (6-9 ft) north of Cape Blanco. Guidance shows winds will strengthen Wednesday/Thursday with the potential (35-55% chance) for gales (gusts) across portions of the southern waters, especially from around Gold Beach south. The pattern will ease some this weekend as an upper trough pushes in from the NW. This should bring lighter winds and lower seas, especially by Sunday. Model scenarios indicate another trough moving through Sunday night into Monday, but the strength of the trough is the main source of uncertainty at this time. We should get a better handle on this in the coming days. -Spilde && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370. && $$  056 FXUS61 KALY 192334 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 734 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Convective outlook has been adjusted slightly and the slight risk remove from our area for today, as the best forcing and organized storms may remain west of the region. Still, a threat for isolated damaging winds continue for today for northern areas. POPs have lowered somewhat for tomorrow along the front as precip should be more scattered. Many areas may stay dry and the threat for just isolated strong-to-severe storms looks to be for far southern areas, and may be a greater threat south/southwest of the region. Models continue to disagree on the handling of precip for this weekend. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected for southern parts of the region on Wednesday. There is a marginal risk for storms to be severe, with damaging winds being the main threat. 2) A return to more seasonable temperatures is expected Thursday into Friday with the next chance for a widespread rainfall over the weekend, although the exact timing, duration and amount of rainfall is still uncertain. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Cooler and drier air will be arriving with a cold front for Wednesday. While northern areas will see relief early in the day with steady/falling temps for the day, far southern areas will be ahead of the front for much of the day. Highs will be close 90 in the mid Hudson Valley once again with moderate Heat Risk. Cooler and drier will arrive for the entire area for Wednesday night. Our region is on the northern fringe of a large upper level ridge centered over the eastern seaboard. Upper level shortwave is well west of the area over the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front remains well upstream of the region over the Great Lakes, although a pre-frontal surface trough is located over the area. SPC mesoanalysis shows 0-6 km bulk shear is around 30 kts, with the highest values across northern parts of the area. Meanwhile, a warm and humid airmass (surface temps approaching 90 in many areas) is allowing for instability, with MLCAPE mainly in the 500-1000 J/kg range, with the best values to the south. With the warm temps aloft, mid level lapse rates are rather poor, generally under 6 deg C/km. Low level lapse rates are strong, however, due to the strong solar heating today. Overall, coverage of storms this afternoon into this evening looks isolated to scattered. Based off the latest CAMs, activity may develop over the next few hours across northern areas and slide eastward, although it may not get too organized across our area with the better forcing still well off to the west. There is enough overlap of shear/instability for a few storms to be severe and damaging winds would be the main threats due to the decent shear and strong low level lapse rates. While a few reports of damaging winds can't be ruled out, the limited forcing and poor mid level lapse rates will likely keep a large severe outbreak from occurring. On Wednesday, some additional storms will be possible across far southern areas in the afternoon hours, as the main cold front settles southward. The rest of the area will be behind the boundary, but Dutchess and Litchfield Counties could see a few strong storms with another day of warm and humid weather expected ahead of the front. SPC maintains a marginal risk for far southern parts of our area, although AI/ML guidance suggests that there may be a slightly higher threat further south across PA/NJ or coastal New England. KEY MESSAGE 2... West to northwest flow will take over for the late week. More seasonable temps are expected for Thursday and Friday with valley highs mainly in the 60s. Overnight temps will be in the 40s, with some mid to upper 30s over the highest terrain. Dry and comfortable weather will be in place for all of Thursday and Friday with a partly to mostly clear sky. Unsettled weather is expected for the weekend, although model guidance has been varying regarding the exact timing of precip. A period of steady rainfall is possible thanks to surface low pressure heading towards the Great Lakes and warm advection/ isentropic lift ahead of the warm front. This could occur as early as Saturday, although latest model guidance has been slowing down the timing of this and/or keeping the bulk of it to the south and west. For now, have gone close to the NBM with likely POPs for Saturday, but there is potential for drier weather. While there should be a break at some point (perhaps for Sunday), another round of showers is expected (Sunday night and/or Monday) as the main upper level disturbances tracks across the region. For now, will keep POPs close to chance for Sun/Mon. While some rain is possible, it may not be totally raining entirely these two days, so some dry weather is possible for a portion of the Holiday Weekend. With the clouds and possible precip, temps may be held down somewhat this weekend, with mid to upper 60s, although if some sun does occur, then highs in the 70s are certainly possible. Ultimately, it will depend on the exact timing/track of the precip, which should come into better focus over the next few days. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00z/Thu...VFR conditions are expected for much of the upcoming TAF period at all sites. Mainly high clouds are expected tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and thunderstorms approaching western New York this evening should diminish overnight before reaching the TAF sites. A light surface wind should prevent fog formation. A cold front crosses the sites during the morning and early afternoon hours Wednesday. A few showers may accompany the front and bring brief MVFR conditions. This has been addressed in a PROB30 group. Confidence on any thunder, mainly at KPOU, was too low to include in the TAF at this time. Drier weather and VFR conditions continue behind the front. South to southwesterly winds 10 kt or less are expected tonight before increasing to 10-20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt on Wednesday with winds gradually shifting to the west and northwest behind the front. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...27 AVIATION...33  065 FXUS64 KEPZ 192334 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 534 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 532 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 - Dry, southwest winds continue each afternoon through the work week. Near normal temperatures for mid May. - Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms this weekend, focused mostly over the high terrain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Large-scale upper trough over the Rocky Mountains, with yesterday's stronger jet streak flow exiting. This will lead to lighter winds than what we saw the past few days. At the surface, weak moisture boundary exists just to our east, riding up against the Guadalupe/Sacramento range. Dry, southwest BL flow will keep this moisture off to our east today, leading to another day of dry conditions and low-end breezy southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Should see some mid-afternoon gusts to 35 across Southwest New Mexico. Temperatures will be right near normal for mid May with lowland highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s. Southwest winds will die down overnight, allowing the dryline boundary to our east to "slosh" westward toward the US-54 corridor. Wouldn't be surprised to see surface dewpoints in the 50s across Hudspeth and eastern Otero County. Models keep this boundary just east of El Paso, and will quickly push it back east by Wednesday afternoon. Little to no noticeable impacts outside of a humid morning for far west Texas. Should see increasing high clouds moving in early Wednesday morning, leading to partly cloudy skies tomorrow. Very similar weather pattern on Wednesday. Dry, southwest flow over the region 10 to 20 mph. Near normal temperatures. Cutoff low apart from the prevailing jet flow well to our north will develop Thursday/Friday, keeping low-end breezy west winds in place and slowly bring moisture northward toward the forecast area. Rain chances will be limited to the high terrain initially, then possibly a few lowland showers Saturday/Sunday. Overall, rain chances looks pretty slim given the meager moisture profiles. But at least they're not zero. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 532 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions expected through the period. Skies currently FEW at 25kft, will become SCT to BKN at 25 kft through the evening and into the overnight. Winds breezy out of the S/SW at 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. Winds will decrease through the evening, becoming light and VRB after 06Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1100 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Near Critical fire weather conditions for Southwest New Mexico again on Wednesday with continued southwest winds 10 to 20 mph and Min RH 8 to 12%. Winds are forecast to remain below Red Flag criteria. Skies will be partly cloudy area wide with passing high clouds. Typical mid May temperatures. Similar weather on Thursday, though we may see some afternoon low level cumulus growth over the high terrain. Minimal changes to temperatures later in the week, along with light southwest flow remaining in place across southern New Mexico. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend, primarily over Lincoln National Forest. This could lead to erratic afternoon wind gusts Saturday/Sunday there. Current fuel status shows ERCs rising past the 90th percentile this week, due in part to sustained dry, breezy weather. Forest conditions are increasingly susceptible to fire starts. There is some concern in new lightning starts over the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 63 90 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 56 86 55 83 / 0 10 10 10 Las Cruces 54 86 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 59 8757 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 44 65 43 63 / 0 10 0 10 Truth or Consequences 58 85 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 52 79 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 54 89 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 55 85 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 63 88 64 86 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 56 88 55 87 / 0 10 10 10 Fort Hancock 61 93 61 90 / 0 10 10 10 Loma Linda 58 82 58 81 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 60 91 60 89 / 0 0 10 10 Santa Teresa 57 87 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 64 88 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 55 86 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 55 89 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 60 89 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 57 86 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 47 76 47 75 / 0 10 10 10 Mescalero 47 76 46 74 / 0 10 0 10 Timberon 45 73 44 72 / 0 10 10 0 Winston 47 78 45 77 / 0 0 0 10 Hillsboro 55 83 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 53 85 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 48 79 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 50 82 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 50 84 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 50 80 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 52 81 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 54 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 54 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 55 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 10 Cloverdale 55 79 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...38-Rogers  069 FXUS65 KBOI 192334 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 534 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry with temperatures warming through Friday. - Well above normal temperatures over Memorial Day Weekend. Gusty winds and a few mountain showers possible on Memorial Day. - Turning cooler early next week with gusty winds and increasing chance of precipitation starting Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Thursday Night/... Issued 157 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026 Our region will remain positioned on the western edge of upper level troughing through Thursday. While the focus of organized precipitation will remain to our east, daytime instability will support widespread cumulus buildups over the mountains as seen this afternoon. There's a slight chance that showers could develop from the cumulus field across e-central Oregon and w-central Idaho mtns each afternoon. Localized gusty winds will be possible from showers or more robust cumulus (with or w/o precipitation). Shower chances briefly increase to 15-25% in the w-central Idaho mtns and s-central Idaho zones Wednesday night in response to a passing shortwave trough. Otherwise it's dry and temperatures are on the way up, leaving behind any frost/freeze concerns for the Snake Plain. By Thursday high temperatures will be several degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... Issued 157 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026 A ridge of high pressure will build over the Western US by the end of this week, bringing generally clear, warm and dry conditions to the region through Monday. Temperatures will be about 10-15 degrees above normal. The ridge will reach peak strength on Sunday, with high temperatures near 90F in the Treasure Valley. By Monday, models indicate that an upper level low moving into the Pacific Northwest will begin to increase chances for precipitation. The upper level trough will move inland on Tuesday, with about half of the models showing that the trough will evolve into a closed low over the Pacific NW by Tuesday or Wednesday. In either scenario, temperatures will cool down 10-20 degrees by Tuesday increasing winds and chance of showers and thunderstorms (20-30% chance). && .AVIATION /00Z Wednesday through Thursday/... Issued 534 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026 VFR under scattered cumulus. Isolated virga showers this afternoon capable of producing localized gusty winds. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt with localized gusts to around 20 kt this afternoon. Becoming variable under 10 kt overnight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: NW 8-12 kt with gusts to around 18 kt this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon, light and variable overnight tonight. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....NF SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....JB  061 FXUS65 KBYZ 192334 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 534 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Weather system brings the chance of precipitation to the area Wednesday into Thursday (60 to 100 percent, greatest over south- central Montana and north-central Wyoming). - 50-90% chance of seeing at least 0.50 inches of liquid precipitation west of a line from Harlowton to Sheridan. Snow levels as low as 6 kft. High chance for greater than 6 inches of snow in the mountains. - Increasing temperatures starting Friday with 80s F Sunday and Monday. && .UPDATE... Modest diurnal instability has allowed for isolated light showers to develop across our north as of 530pm, from Harlowton to near Miles City, and some sprinkles have been observed in spots further south. Have adjusted pops/wx to account for this activity thru around sunset. JKL && .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday... A weather system will impact the region Wednesday and Thursday. It begins late Wednesday with the passage of a cold front bringing Pacific Moisture. Northeast winds will create favorable conditions for mountains and foothills locations. Cross sections indicate deep moisture and decent omega, further increasing precipitation potential. Precipitation chances of 80-100% for the mountains and foothills decrease to the east with locations such as Miles City and Baker having the lowest chances (60%). This system will also bring thunderstorm chances of 15-30% Wednesday and Thursday. Severe storms are not expected. Locations west of a line from Harlowton to Sheridan have a 40-80% chance of getting greater than 0.5 inches of precipitation with locations locations east of Rosebud County having a <20% chance. Snow levels are expected to be in the 6,000-7,000 ft range keeping snow accumulations in the mountains. The Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains have a 50-100% chance of getting greater than 6 inches of snowfall but generally a <20% chance for greater than 12 inches. The Bighorn Mountains have a 50-80% chance for getting greater than 6 inches of snowfall and 30-50% chance for greater than 12 inches over the highest peaks. The highest snowfall totals will occur on north and east facing slopes. Temperatures in the 60s and 70s F will cool into the 50s and 60s F Thursday. Friday through Sunday will see increasing heights leading to warming temperatures and dry conditions. Temperatures in the 60s F Friday increase into the 80s F Sunday and Monday. More uncertainty enters the forecast early next week as ensemble systems indicate the potential for troughing to impact the region bringing cooler temperatures and precipitation chances. Torgerson .AVIATION... Very light rain showers are lingering along a line from K3HT to KMLS this evening, little to no impacts are expected with these. Additional weak shower activity along the foothills west of KBIL is possible, though impacts are not expected. A cold front is forecast to move through the region Wednesday afternoon, bringing the chance of showers and weak thunderstorms. Impacts include gusty winds and brief downpours. Matos && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 042/069 043/056 039/070 044/079 050/084 053/088 053/082 14/T +8/W 00/U 00/U 10/U 01/U 11/B LVM 036/063 036/054 033/067 039/076 045/081 048/083 047/075 03/T +9/T 00/B 01/B 11/U 11/N 14/T HDN 036/071 041/057 036/070 040/079 046/084 049/088 050/083 11/B 89/W 10/U 00/U 10/U 01/U 11/B MLS 039/072 043/062 040/069 041/078 048/084 050/088 053/084 21/B 45/W 21/B 00/U 10/U 00/U 10/N 4BQ 039/071 042/060 039/067 041/076 047/083 050/088 054/084 00/B 26/T 41/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/B BHK 036/072 038/064 037/067 040/075 046/083 049/088 052/084 01/B 36/T 53/W 10/U 00/U 10/U 10/N SHR 031/066 036/050 032/065 035/074 040/081 043/086 045/081 01/B 3+/T 52/W 00/U 01/U 00/U 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings  147 FXUS61 KBTV 192336 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 736 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 1045 AM EDT Tuesday... Light showers are starting to develop. No lightning has been observed at this time. A few rounds of thunderstorms will be possible, with a stronger storm or two capable of gusty winds. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 238 PM EDT Tuesday... 1. Warm and humid weather will promote a few strong storms before a cold front drives cool weather back south. 2. A period of cool weather is expected the remainder of the week. 3. A pair of weak systems will drive rain chances late Saturday night into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 238 PM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: The latest thinking from the Storm Prediction Center is to reduce the likelihood of severe weather in the forecast. A marginal risk outlook (Level 1 of 5), is now forecast for today. A few strong storms may develop as a result of strong heating into the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 60s. CAPE of about 1000-1500 J/kg will be possible, and there is also modest wind flow with 40 knots of 0-6km bulk shear. Lapse rates are marginal, and there is not much of a lifting mechanism in place today. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be greatest in southern and eastern Vermont, with relatively little outside these regions during the afternoon. The main threat from any thunderstorm will be sending stronger winds aloft to the surface. Thunderstorm potential won't end with the sunset this evening. We're in the season of piece meal frontal boundaries now. The first piece arrives after sunset. Although surface instability will decrease, the radiation of heat and mid-level warming should produce a sharp inversion. Mid-level instability will increase along and ahead of the front that will also coincide with a subtle upper jet and vorticity max. Precipitation will expand northeast across the Adirondacks. However, it will struggle as terrain shadowing and dry air entrainment break up activity heading into Vermont. However, the front will not yet be through the region until Wednesday. So another warm, humid night it expected with upper 50s to upper 60s tonight. A theta E boundary will cross mid-morning, and cold produce some tiny, spot showers, and then the wind shift finally crosses in the afternoon, which could also produce a localized shower. Southern Vermont will still be in the 80s, but most of the region will be in the 70s behind the theta E boundary. If any activity can overcome strong mid-level drying in southern Vermont, then a shower or two could briefly produce a few flashes of lightning, but this isn't expressly noted in the current forecast. One last thing to note for Wednesday will be the breezy northwesterly flow behind the system as the dry air filters in. With afternoon mixing, it'll bring in 20-25 mph gusts and RHs sinking to 30-40%. This may be most relevant in south-central Vermont, which hasn't seen quite as much rain over the last 3-4 days. KEY MESSAGE 2: A rather strong batch of cold air will come in from the north, and it will linger for awhile as the 1030mb surface high is slow to move. Looks like we may be talking frost headlines based on present low temperatures as the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom enter the temperature-defined growing season. Min temperatures for Wednesday night and Thursday night feature low to mid 30s for these regions, and low to mid 40s for the rest of the area. Part of the reason why we'll observe such cool weather at night will come from the very dry air mass overhead. Even with afternoon temperatures in the 60s, minimum relative humidity values appear likely to drop significantly during the day. Thursday's cooler temperatures will likely keepvalues closer to 25-35%, but Friday looks especially dry around 20-30%. There'll be steady winds Thursday, and light and variable winds on Friday. Even as high pressure begins to depart, it lifts towards the Gulf of St. Lawrence rather than simply going off into the Atlantic. So colder north flow will trend to cool, maritime east-southeast flow. Conditions will be dry underneath this strong high. It'll be supremely pleasant weather through Saturday afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 3: A weak, 1013mb low pressure will track towards the Great Lakes region, and it will struggle mightily against the now 1035mb surface high in the Canadian Maritimes. Guidance is consistent on a warm front lifting northeast in association with the surface low but also decelerating and decaying. A sharp gradient in rainfall amounts is expected with steady rain setting up near or south of our forecast area and dry the farther northeast you get. Some guidance has the warm front and associated precipitation collapsing before it even reaches the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. The latest 12z GFS doesn't even allow the warm front to make it to our region of responsibility. Another area of low pressure will move towards James Bay, and it will come with a well-defined upper trough that will begin to acquire a negative tilt on. Yet another weak surface low will start developing near Long Island. This will set the stage for strong confluence while a moisture feed out of the Gulf and Atlantic are positioned nearby. The doubling up of these features appears to last for a very short time, and given that it's relatively small, any disconnect would disrupt precipitation efficiency. Regardless, this feature will be progressive. A few showers cold linger into next Tuesday as the backside of the upper trough makes it in during the morning. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00Z Thursday...Radar is showing a broken line of showers and thunderstorms north of Lake Ontario and slowly approaching the St Lawrence Valley. This activity is expected to impact KMSS between 03-05Z with localized gusty winds, a brief heavy downpour and some lightning, before shifting toward SLK by midnight and slowly weakening. Eventually this activity will enter the Champlain Valley after midnight and slowly weaken across central VT. Tempo for brief MVFR conditions was used at MSS with PROB30 groups for the rest of our taf sites. South to southwest winds 5 to 15 knots will shift to the west/northwest after passage of cold front with some lowering ceilings at SLK toward IFR conditions possible around sunrise on Weds. Additional MVFR cigs are possible at MSS/MPV and EFK on Weds morning, before conditions improve to VFR with localized wind gusts up to 20 knots possible. Outlook... Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... As of 238 PM EDT Tuesday... A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Broad Waters of Lake Champlain. Sustained winds have been lacking much of the day, but have increased over the last couple hours. A few gusts have hovered just under the 25 knot criteria as well. Given the proximity to that threshold and cold water, the Lake Wind Advisory will remain up. Some stronger wind gusts will be possible on Lake Champlain around midnight following a boundary, and then again once winds shift from south or southwest to north later on Wednesday. Waves will likely range about 1-3 feet. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd/Haynes DISCUSSION...Haynes AVIATION...Taber MARINE...Clay/Haynes  139 FXUS61 KOKX 192336 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 736 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A Heat Advisory remains in effect for NYC and northeast New Jersey as hot weather continues through Wednesday. 2) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. 3) A much cooler airmass settles over the region Thursday into the holiday weekend with an ongoing chance of showers from time to time. 4) Cold water safety concerns continue this week with good boating weather, and water temperatures still in the 50s. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Southwest flow around an offshore high will continue to keep temperatures well above normal through the day on Wednesday. Temperatures have risen well into the 80s and 90s away from the immediate coastline so far today. Overnight lows will not provide much relief, only falling into the mid 70s across the NYC metro and remaining in the mid 60s across much of the rest of the area. While temperatures on Wednesday will be a few degrees cooler than today, heat index values will once again rise into the mid 90s across much of New York City and northeast New Jersey. With this in mind, a Heat Advisory remains in effect for these areas. Outside of the advisory area it will still be unseasonably warm, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and heat index values in the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the immediate coastline. .KEY MESSAGE 2... While an isolated shower or thunderstorm can't be completely ruled out this afternoon and evening across the Lower Hudson Valley and interior southern Connecticut, conditions overall are expected to remain dry as the best upper level support remains north of the area and subsidence helps to suppress convective development. A better chance of showers and thunderstorms exists on Wednesday as a cold front crosses the region. Precipitation chances will increase through the day, with the best chance for showers and storms between about 2pm-8pm. While storm coverage remains uncertain, any storms that do develop could contain strong gusty winds, with high resolution model soundings indicating the potential for 500-1000 J/kg of DCAPE during the afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Wednesday. While brief heavy downpours are possible in any storms, overall these storms should be quick moving, which will mitigate the potential for any flooding. With the front lingering just offshore, shower chances will continue through Wednesday night across Long Island and portions of New York City. .KEY MESSAGE 3... High pressure begins to build toward the region on Thursday in the wake of the front. This will bring an end to any lingering showers along the coast Thursday morning, with dry conditions continuing into the day on Friday. Temperatures will also be 15-20 degrees colder, with highs in the mid to upper 60s. This is near to even a few degrees below normal for this time of year. Disturbances in the mid levels are forecast to push into the region from mainly a southwest direction during the course of the holiday weekend. The higher likelihood of shower activity currently is slotted for Friday night into Saturday. Afterwards, subsequent shortwave timing differences take place among the various NWP and AI global guidance. Additional shortwaves are expected to move across Sunday, all while heights build along the Mid Atlantic coast. On Monday additional energy may attempt to work in, this time from the west. Therefore the expectation at this time is for intervals of unsettled conditions featuring on and off shower activity. Forecast uncertainty increases more for the second half of the holiday weekend, in particular for Sunday into Monday. A frontal boundary is progged to be stalled to the south throughout the holiday weekend, and may get north enough to bring another round of unsettled conditions with showers late Monday into Tuesday. .KEY MESSAGE 4... Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Offshore high pressure gives way to an approaching cold front Wednesday. The front moves across late Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Mainly VFR conditions are expected through 18Z Wednesday. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop after 18Z Wednesday, with the best chance from 21-00Z. Kept TSRA chances in a PROB30 at this time as confidence in the coverage of TSRA remains uncertain. If a thunderstorm does occur, it could be strong to severe with brief strong gusty winds up to possibly 40 to 50 kt. MVFR or lower condition possible in any TSRA. Winds will be primarily SW through tonight and then more WSW early Wednesday, becoming more NW late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Wind speeds generally near 10-15 kt much of the TAF period with gusts to near 20 kt Wednesday afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments possible to refine timing of showers and thunderstorms. A few hours of uncertainty with wind gusts, start and end times could be few hours off from TAF. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Wednesday Night: Winds becoming more NW into Wednesday evening. Thunderstorm chances decrease Wednesday evening with showers could linger along coastal terminals with MVFR or lower possible. Otherwise VFR. Thursday: MVFR or lower conditions possible early for coastal terminals and NYC terminals at times with a chance of showers. Mainly VFR thereafter. Friday: Possible showers and MVFR conditions. Chances of showers increase late day into night. Showers become likely at night. Saturday: MVFR or lower with showers. E-NE wind gusts 15-20 kt. Sunday: MVFR or lower with chances of showers. NE wind gusts 15-20 kt during the day. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on the ocean waters through the day on Wednesday. While gusts so far have remained below 25 kt, still expecting seas to build to 5-6 feet and remain elevated through the day on Wednesday. In addition to the elevated seas and marginally gusty winds, a cold frontal passage late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening will bring with it the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. Once the front passes, conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels into Saturday morning before an increasing easterly flow brings advisory conditions to the ocean, and potentially to some of the non-ocean waters Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 19: KEWR: 98/1962 KBDR: 89/2017 KNYC: 99/1962 KLGA: 96/2017 KJFK: 92/2017 KISP: 89/2017 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 19: KEWR: 67/1986 KBDR: 66/2017 KNYC: 68/1986 KLGA: 68/2017 KJFK: 67/2017 KISP: 65/2017 May 20: KEWR: 72/1996 KBDR: 61/2019 KNYC: 74/1996 KLGA: 77/1996 KJFK: 63/1996 KISP: 62/1996 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012. NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075- 078>081-176>179. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ072>075-176-178. NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006- 103>108. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ DISCUSSION...FEB/JE AVIATION...MW MARINE...FEB/JE  125 FXUS63 KICT 192336 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 636 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Below normal temperatures will continue through Thursday, with highs around 10 degrees below normal. - Rain chances will start to increase Wednesday night and will remain through Thursday evening. Even though most locations will get wet through this time period, we are not looking for any organized severe storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Currently have a shortwave trough extending from southwest Ontario, through the Northern Plains and into the Central Great Basin. The two main vort lobes are situated over the Upper Mississippi Valley and over the Central Great Basin. Strong cold front that moved through last night is now located from central MO into southeast OK. Unseasonably cold airmass is in place across the Plains with highs today around 25-30 degrees cooler than Monday's readings! This airmass will remain place for tonight with many locations across central and western KS falling into the upper 30s to low 40s. For tonight through most of Wed, upper trough will remain through the Great Basin with a more robust piece of energy starting to dig across the Northern Rockies on Wed night. Outside of a few rogue showers over far southeast KS tonight into Wed, the majority of the forecast area will remain dry through Wed. Stationary front will remain to our south and will start to wash out on Wed. By Wed night, shortwave will continue to dig across the Northern Rockies to the Great Basin and at the same time, there is decent model agreement that some southern stream upper energy will start to lift out of southwest TX. This will place most of the region in an area of deep isentropic lift and mid level theta-e advection for Wed night through Thu. We will also remain in the right entrance region of an upper jet. This will result in fairly widespread showers and isolated storms starting Wed night and continuing on Thu. At this point it appears the most widespread activity will be Thu evening for the Flint Hills into southeast KS as the southern stream impulse lifts across the area. We should see an overall decrease in precip on Fri as the southern stream wave lifts out and the main upper trough swings northeast across the Central Plains. However for Sat, yet another weak upper perturbation is set to swing across the forecast area, keeping at least some small precip chances in through Sat evening. Then another southern stream impulse is expected to once again lift out of southwest TX and bring widespread rain to the Southern Plains for Sat night through Sun night. The GFS is much quicker to close this low off and lift it north, spreading widespread precip into much of our forecast area. However, it appears to be the outlier at this time. As far as temps go, below normal readings will remain for both Wed and Thu, as we get back closer to seasonal values for Fri into the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Low cigs will continue to periodically impact south-central and southeastern Kansas sites through 12-15Z with CNU remaining at MVFR levels through the night. Northeasterly winds around 10 knots will diminish slightly overnight. Look for winds to turn out of the east and increase back above 10 knots between 14-17Z. BKN/OVC skies look to expand in coverage towards the end of the forecast period, potentially dipping to MVFR/IFR levels beyond the TAF period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...AMD  155 FXUS63 KMKX 192336 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 636 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty northwest winds in the wake of a cold front will diminish this evening. - Easterly winds will keep lakeshore temperatures cooler than inland areas Wednesday through Friday. Expect a gradual warming trend Saturday through Memorial Day. - Rain chances return Friday afternoon and night (40-60%), with much smaller chances the rest of the holiday weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued 631 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Ongoing forecast remains on track and no major changes expected with gusty winds gradually diminishing this evening. Wagner && .SHORT TERM... Issued 325 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Tonight through Wednesday Night: Gusty west-northwest winds in the wake of the surface cold front will gradually diminish through late evening as an inversion sets up. Cloud cover is more uncertain, but there should be a thinning/clearing trend from west to east overnight. The upper wave will swing across WI much later than the surface front, so temps will remain on the milder side during the overnight period, ranging from the upper 40s southeast to the lower 40s toward central WI. By 12Z/7AM Wed, the mid level trough and 850mb front will be stalled over central WI. Meanwhile, a shortwave tracking across the Plains will push into southern WI by midday. The interaction of the 850mb front sliding south and the incoming shortwave will help colder air rush down the lakeshore quicker than inland (back door cold front) during Wed morning. This should also bring a period of low clouds to the lakeshore and slightly higher but still widespread clouds to inland areas. Temps will remain cooler near the lake, with highs ranging from the mid 50s lakeshore to the lower/mid 60s well inland. Despite surface high pressure sitting over the Upper Great Lakes, the mid level shortwave and right entrance region of the upper jet should keep at least mid level clouds around. Without the clearing and with a persistent light easterly breeze, our frost potential is very low. The forecast low temps are between 39 and 42. This is slightly up from the previous forecast and nearly lined up with the 50th percentile of model solutions. Cronce && .LONG TERM... Issued 325 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Thursday through Tuesday: The upper level pattern will be very similar to Wed on Thursday. The mid level clouds may be even thicker. A steady easterly breeze will keep lakeshore temps cooler than inland (similar temps as Wed). Thursday night lows will be in the lower to mid 40s. The surface east winds will remain steady through Friday, and this may help to hold off the rain. Models are trending later with the arrival of our next chance for precip. An upper trough progressing through the Northern Plains Thursday night into Friday will swing into MN Fri evening. Meanwhile, a weak low crossing MO and IL will slide into Lower Michigan. Southern WI will be in the middle of those features, but weak warm air advection and the synoptic forcing could be enough for scattered light showers. The thunder threat is looking lower now due to the probable timing into the evening/overnight. There is no severe threat. The ECMWF has a wetter look to the Fri nt/Sat period than the GFS at this time. We will keep a close eye on this for the holiday weekend. The upper trough will be crossing WI on Sunday and this will bring a chance for showers of the scattered, pop-up variety. If the low level lapse rates are steep enough, a few rumbles of thunder look possible Sunday afternoon. This would not be an all-day wash-out. Monday weather looks quiet right now, as we will be between systems. There will be a warming trend withthe temps through the Memorial Day weekend, with highs around 70 Sat, 75 Sun, and 80 Mon. Cronce && .AVIATION... Issued 631 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Gusty northwesterly winds early this evening linger in the east for another hour or two before diminishing through the remainder of the evening. Otherwise, MVFR to VFR ceilings between 2.5-4kft feet continue through much of the evening and overnight before lifting through early Wednesday morning as high pressure builds into the area. Expect north to northeasterly lighter winds for wednesday with the incoming high, but still could see some mid- level diurnal driven cumulus develop through the afternoon, but with more onshore flow off of Lake Michigan could see some lower MVFR sneak in for some of the eastern terminals through the morning and afternoon. Wagner && .MARINE... Issued 325 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Gusty westerly winds are developing in the wake of a cold front this afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt will be possible right behind the front and then winds will gradually diminish overnight. High pressure will then move into the northern Great Lakes on Wednesday. Modest northeast winds are expected Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, especially over the south half. Winds will remain easterly through Saturday as strong high pressure tracks across Ontario and Quebec and a weak low pressure trough sets up in the Plains. The Small Craft Advisory for the nearshore was extended until 7 PM CDT this evening due to gusty west-northwest winds. Northeast winds will develop Wednesday morning and persist through Saturday. This will build high waves in the nearshore areas by Wednesday afternoon. Another small craft advy will be needed. Cronce && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM Tuesday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  129 FXUS63 KSGF 192336 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 636 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue to slowly move through the area this afternoon. Additional scattered showers/storms possible overnight. No severe weather expected. - Residual flooding from previous heavy rains will continue. Additional rainfall amounts up to one inch is possible south of Interstate 44. - Cooler into mid week, with additional rain chances (60-90%) on Thursday and Friday. There is a slight risk for excessive rainfall/localized flooding Thursday night through Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows an upper level trough/jet streak over the Rockies with another more compact shortwave working through the area. An 850mb front was located from central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. The surface cold front was currently located just west of Springfield with temps in the 50s to around 60 behind it with lower to middle 60s ahead of the front. The airmass was becoming increasingly stable over the area with MU CAPE now less than 1000j/kg. However there was a corridor of slightly higher MU CAPE centered more along the 850mb front. The widespread area of showers and storms has now shifted to the areas east of Highway 65. Residual flooding continues across locations north of Springfield where heavy rainfall occurred. Rain Chances Through Wednesday and cooler temps: The afternoon batch of showers and isolated storms will continue to move east/southeast with a brief break/lull this evening. However, overnight (mainly after midnight) there is an increasing signal that light showers or perhaps an isolated storm will develop over the area along the corridor of the 850mb front. A low level jet and continued placement of the right entrance region of the upper level jet will also aid in the development of this scattered activity. Severe weather is not expected and rainfall amounts will likely remain light enough to limit any renewed flooding. Temperatures should slowly decrease into the 50s. Weak mid level ridging should allow for a decreasing trend in precip chances through the day. Northeast winds and mostly cloudy conditions should keep temps cool with most locations staying in the 60s. There could even be a few locations north of Springfield that struggle to even reach 60. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Additional Rain Chances Late Week and Weekend: Ensemble data shows a rather unsettled pattern Thursday onward. From a synoptic perspective, the pattern favors shortwave energy moving through the area every few days given the southwest flow aloft. One such wave looks to move into the area late Thursday into Friday. Precip chances have increased into the 60-80% range as a shield of showers and storms looks to move through the area from the southwest. Looking at instability, latest ensemble probs for CAPE greater than 500j/kg is highest on Friday. Latest probs for precip greater than 0.5in is around 60%. Therefore we will need to monitor the location of the heaviest rainfall. The WPC has highlighted portions of the area in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Additional shortwaves look to rotate through the area this weekend. Confidence is low on exact timing of each wave and subsequent hazards however rain chances are in the 30-50% range at times this weekend. A gradual warming trend should occur this weekend with the potential for highs to reach the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 628 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front was making its way through the Ozarks with showers and localized drizzle occurring both in advance of and behind the front. Winds will shift from southerly to northerly with the frontal passage with surface winds from 5-10kts. Behind the front, ceilings will fall rapidly from MVFR into IFR with some LIFR. Confidence is high that ceilings will drop below 1kft lasting through tonight. Ceilings may drop down to 500 ft at times and additional updates are likely. Lastly, visibilities may drop closer to 4-5 miles at times in the rain showers. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Hatch  164 FXUS64 KAMA 192336 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 636 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms are possible beginning as early as Wednesday and extending through Saturday. Strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out some of these days. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 As we come off of a very active stretch of fire weather, the rest of today is a chance for the Panhandles to take a deep breath and enjoy decreasing winds and beautiful spring temperatures. North winds will turn out of the east this evening and die down closer to 10 mph overnight. These east winds will begin the process of advecting low level moisture to the area (40s-50s dew points), which could cause some low clouds and perhaps thin, patchy fog to develop tomorrow morning. Wednesday into Wed night has the potential to bring beneficial rainfall to portions of the Panhandles, but also has the potential for many locations to miss out on the moisture entirely. Although conditions will become more favorable for rain and storms, the margin for error is small, and there are a handful of factors that could lead to a disappointing outcome for much of the area. Southwest flow aloft will settle atop the Plains, drawing improved theta-e to the region thanks to troughing over the western CONUS. Cooler temperatures from morning cloud cover will keep better atmospheric saturation within the swath of higher moisture content, which is most favored across the southern Panhandle and eastern New Mexico initially. Many models depict a corridor of dry air existing over the central to western Panhandles, which may inhibit convective development until better moisture fills in overnight with the arrival of a subtle shortwave disturbance. Some CAMs on the other hand suggest convection off the higher terrain will struggle to survive the trip into this dry air, while others believe new convection will form over the heart of our CWA later tomorrow evening. All this goes to say, we unfortunately will have to wait and see where moisture is situated along with the upper disturbance, as well as how convection evolves before placing higher confidence in storm chances. Even if rain survives, it is likely going to be scattered and "hit or miss" in nature rather than widespread (30-60% POPs). Instability will be modest (500-1500 J/kg MUCAPE), which could support storms becoming strong-severe with hail and gusty winds. Showers and storms may become more widespread across the eastern Panhandles overnight into Thursday morning where higher PWATs >1" will be present, and would be better favored to produce beneficial rainfall >0.5". Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Ensemble outputs depict additional rounds of systems approaching the Panhandles into next week thanks to persistent troughing to our west, with decent potential to provide shower and storm opportunities daily. Thursday's rain/storm chances would likely be conditional based on Wed night activity, but could be conducive for additional strong-severe storms if the atmosphere is able to recover from morning convection across the northern and eastern combined Panhandles. Friday is another day we are monitoring for increased storm potential, especially across the eastern Panhandles where boundary interactions combined with increased moisture, instability, and large scale lift may create an environment worth monitoring for severe weather. The synoptic pattern is more uncertain beyond Friday, but there is a signal for a relatively wetter pattern to continue. One bonus to the forecast pattern regardless of rain chances, is the the return to near average temperatures to end the month. After the anomalously hot, windy, and dry stretch we've been in, the outlook of lighter winds, cooler temperatures, and higher humidity should provide an extremely welcomed reprieve from fire weather concerns. Harrel && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions continue for the rest of the day and winds continue to decrease as we get closer to sunset. Early tomorrow morning, MVFR ceilings are expected to impact all sites; and eventually, conditions will worsen to IFR. By Wednesday afternoon, thunderstorms have a slight chance to effect all terminals. However, confidence is too low to include mentions in the TAFs at this time. Mentions may be added in later TAF packages. MVFR ceilings are expected to prevail at KDHT and KAMA through the rest of the period. KGUY may return to VFR before 00Z Thursday. Rangel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...55  201 FXUS64 KLZK 192337 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 637 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 -Line of showers/thunderstorms to move southeast through the state today into this evening -Threat for seeing severe weather with this line of thunderstorms will be limited by instability...though some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Damaging winds will be primary threat -Locally heavy rainfall may lead to an isolated flash flood threat today -Unsettled pattern will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms forecast into early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 All quiet across AR so far early this Tue morning...with some breezy SRLY winds noted. Temps remain warm in the 70s for most areas...with dewpts also in the 60s and 70s. A line of TSRA is ongoing across NRN OK into SERN KS and WRN MO...slowly moving SE over time. This line of convention will be the primary wx story through this Tue afternoon/evening. Expect this line of convection to drop SE into the state sometime near sunrise...eventually dropping SE through the state by late this afternoon/early evening. The overall threat for SVR convection with this line as it moves SE will be limited by instability...which forecast instability is generally lacking. SHR is also limited during the daylight hrs...with the highest 0-3 km SRH this morning just ahead of the line over NWRN sections. While this doesn't mean organized SVR Wx won't happen...just means the potential will be limited...and likely isolated in nature. If SVR convection were to develop...damaging winds look to be the primary threat...with some marginally SVR hail possible also. The overall tornado threat looks to remain low...and may be limited to far NWRN sections during the morning hrs when the SRH is best. However...this is also when CIN will also be elevated...which should help keep that tornado threat low. Some locally heavy rainfall may be seen as this line of convection drops slowly SE over time. While most of this rainfall will be welcome given the ongoing drought conditions...there could be a few isolated spots see enough rainfall that could create an isolated flash flood threat. Beyond this evening...chances for precip do decrease overnight into Wed morning. However...an unsettled pattern will continue as SW flow aloft will remain SW over the region into early next week. Upper waves will pass over the state...which will create some forcing for convection generally each day through the week and through the weekend. While the threat for organized SVR Wx looks low at this time...late May climatology suggest some SVR threat may be possible each day. When...where...and what SVR threat may exist will depend on day to day specifics regarding the stability and SHR. As a result...the threat should remain uncertain for now. The threat for seeing heavy rainfall for the next 4-7 days may increase given multiple rounds of rainfall possible...but ongoing drought conditions and exact placement of heaviest rainfall through the next week keep the threat for flash flooding uncertain at this time as well. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across southern Arkansas will gradually moving east-southeast through the evening hours and out of the state late tonight. VFR/MVFR ceilings will lower to IFR at all terminals late tonight into Wednesday morning, then gradually lift to MVFR/VFR on Wednesday afternoon. Additional isolated SHRA/TSRA may be develop near the end of the period within the vicinity of central terminals, but confidence is too low at this time to place in the TAF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 66 74 60 74 / 60 40 30 50 Camden AR 66 82 65 79 / 60 40 50 80 Harrison AR 60 70 58 72 / 50 30 30 50 Hot Springs AR 66 80 63 75 / 50 30 30 70 Little Rock AR 66 78 62 75 / 60 30 30 70 Monticello AR 68 82 66 80 / 80 50 40 80 Mount Ida AR 66 79 64 74 / 50 30 40 70 Mountain Home AR 60 70 58 73 / 50 40 20 40 Newport AR 65 76 61 77 / 60 50 30 60 Pine Bluff AR 67 81 64 78 / 60 40 30 80 Russellville AR 65 77 62 75 / 50 30 30 60 Searcy AR 64 77 60 76 / 60 50 30 60 Stuttgart AR 68 79 64 77 / 60 50 30 70 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...62 AVIATION...76  263 FXUS62 KJAX 192339 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 739 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - High Risk Of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches through Tonight - Patchy to Areas of Fog Tonight, which may become locally dense - Thunderstorm chances increasing this week, with greatest chances over the weekend && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Main Highlights This Period: - High Risk for Rip Currents at beaches through Tonight. - Patchy to areas of fog Tonight, which may become locally dense High pressure will be centered to the northeast of the region through Tonight. Inland convection will continue to fade as it drifts west this evening. Patchy to areas of fog are expected to develop Tonight. The greatest chance for fog will be over SE GA, where better low level moisture will be. Locally dense fog will be possible. Lows will range from around 70 at the coast, to the mid to upper 60s inland. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Daily isolated thunderstorms each afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland towards the I-75 corridor. Drier air in place will limit showers and storms over much of the area Wednesday and Thursday, however isolated storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon over north central Florida, and again on Thursday afternoon over north central FL and near I-75. The persistent east-southeast flow will continue to bring breezy conditions along the coast, with gusts up range from 15 mph to 20 mph each afternoon. Inland high temperatures will soar into the lower to mid 90s, whereas coastal highs will stay a little cooler with the sea breeze, in the mid to upper 80s I-95 eastward. Mild low temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s both nights, with chances for patchy inland fog both Wednesday and Thursday mornings. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... - Hot temperatures continue through the weekend - Increasing chances of showers and storms into and through the upcoming holiday weekend into next week. Rain and storm chances increase Friday through Monday areawide as southerly flow allows both the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes to develop and meet in a more central location. Storms will primarily develop in the afternoons, beginning to dissipate around sunset. PWATs will trend towards the 1.5" to 1.75" range, possibly as high as 2" for some locations over SE GA by Sunday, which could lead to locally heavy downpours for any storms that develop. The hot temperatures will continue through the weekend as highs will rise to lower to mid 90s across inland locations outside of convective activity, while the mid to upper 80s along the coast. Overnight Lows will be in the upper 60s to 70s area-wide. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Stratus will move off the Atlantic Tonight, which may briefly cause restrictions. The potential for these restrictions in stratus is low. Further inland, fog is expected to cause restrictions at VQQ and GNV. Prevailing VFR conditions is forecast for Wednesday. && .MARINE... Atlantic high pressure centered near Bermuda will continue to extend its axis westward across the southeastern states through the end of the week. This feature will maintain a prevailing east to southeasterly wind flow across our local waters during the next several days. A frontal boundary will briefly stall over the southeastern states late this week. Caution level wind speeds will be possible for the near shore waters during the late afternoon and evening hours from Friday through early next week as Atlantic high pressure becomes reinforced near Bermuda. Only isolated showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are expected through Saturday, with a slight increase in coverage possible towards Memorial Day. Rip Currents: Persistent easterly winds and surf of 2-4 ft will keep a high risk of rip currents in place today at all area beaches, with at least a moderate risk on Wednesday and Thursday. High risks are expected again from Friday through the upcoming Holiday weekend, as late afternoon and evening east to southeasterly wind surges return. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy High Dispersions This Week - Patchy to areas of fog Tonight, locally dense High pressure will be centered to the east northeast. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Isolated mainly afternoon thunderstorms each day this week into next week. Patchy to areas of fog Tonight, locally dense. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 64 90 65 91 / 10 10 0 10 SSI 70 84 73 86 / 10 0 0 0 JAX 65 89 69 92 / 10 0 0 10 SGJ 71 87 72 89 / 10 10 0 10 GNV 66 93 69 94 / 10 20 0 10 OCF 68 92 70 93 / 10 20 0 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Risk for Rip Currents until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for GAZ154-166. MARINE...None. && $$  261 FXUS63 KAPX 192339 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 739 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler temps continue to filter into N MI this evening and overnight scattered showers end this evening. - Much cooler Wednesday, with the potential for a widespread frost/freeze Wednesday night. - Steady warming trend late week into the weekend, watching potential for rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Cold front to bring sharply colder temperatures this evening and tonight consequent of upper low moving across Ontario. Additionally, scattered showers from this afternoon will largely end by 7-8PM. Expect a cooler night tonight, with some 30s and 40s across northern lower and eastern upper MI. Winds will remain elevated through the night, and a little breezy at times. Upper low continues to sweep eastward across Ontario on Wednesday, with sfc high pressure building in across Minnesota and Wisconsin, nudging eastward. Expect cool conditions through the day on Wednesday, with high temps between 50 to 60 degrees for most. High temps a full 15 degrees below average for some. High pressure continues to move eastward, settling just to our northwest/north Wednesday night. With winds progged to decouple, most locations have a good chance for either a front or freeze event. Given this could cause decent impacts to vegetation and crops, went with a freeze watch for the area. Mixed in MAV guidance to nudge low temps colder. Next time period of relative mild concern will be the later Friday into Saturday time frame. Low pressure and warm advection lifts northward, with the potential for rain across the region. This will all depend on how subtle energy across the central portions of the country is handled which will impact low pressure location. Combining GEFS, EPS, and GEPS together yields a high chance for >0.1" of rain and a low to medium chance for 0.5". Thus, could be a wetting rain for some, although the highest potential is shaded farther downstate and especially near DTX. Stay tuned for additional details. Heights will continue to rise through the weekend and into early next week, meaning the warming trend is progged to continue. Looks pretty warm early next week if the pattern holds true. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 737 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Lingering isolated to scattered rain showers and associated MVFR to IFR CIGs expected to continue to shift east over the next few hours with prevailing VFR conditions anticipated for the day Wednesday. Post frontal winds already out of the west-northwest, remaining breezy at times right through the day Wednesday. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345>348. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321-322. && $$ DISCUSSION...JLD AVIATION...MJG  278 FXUS64 KMAF 192339 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 639 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 637 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Strong to severe storms remain possible late this afternoon and evening, mainly from the southern Permian Basin into the Lower Trans Pecos. Large hail (up to 2 inches or greater), damaging winds (up to 70 mph), and frequent lightning will accompany the most intense storms that develop. - Strong to severe storms are expected once again on Wednesday. Large hail and damaging winds will be threats as well as localized flash flooding. - Shower and storm chances continue into the weekend as additional disturbances move overhead. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Surface observations indicate that the cold front extends from just east of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains to the Upper Trans Pecos and southern Permian Basin as of 2 PM CDT this afternoon. A cooler and drier airmass remains in place over the rest of the forecast area behind the cold front, and we ended up lowering afternoon high temperatures in the 70s to mid 80s behind this boundary. SPC mesoscale analysis shows a corridor of moderate instability with CAPE values of 1500-3000 J/KG along and just of this boundary over the southern Permian Basin and into the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Big Bend where temperatures are in the upper 80s to mid 90s with dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower 60s. A shortwave impulse embedded within southwesterly flow aloft will move across west Texas this afternoon and we expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop along the southern Basin and Lower Trans Pecos near the boundary and to the east of the trailing dryline late this afternoon into this evening. The moderate instability, steep mid-level lapse rates, and increasing effective bulk shear will support organized storm growth and supercell development over these locations. Large hail up to 2"+ in diameter and damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe modes with any supercell storms that develop. The tornado threat will be lower, but still cannot be ruled out with supercells that develop in the vicinity of the front. Heavy rainfall may also lead to localized flash flooding. The severe threat should by mid to late evening as storms move east of our region. Cooler temperatures return tonight with lows in the 50s over parts of southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin, as well as higher terrain areas. Lows will be in the 60s to near 70 over our central and southern zones. Another active day is expected Wednesday as shortwave impulses continue to translate over the forecast area within the southwesterly flow aloft. The surface boundary will remain oriented from the southeast New Mexico Plains to the Trans Pecos. Shower/storm coverage will increase over much of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, with the greatest coverage (50-70%) over the Permian Basin, the Trans Pecos, and Big Bend. Instability and shear parameters will once again favor organized convection with a few storms capable of becoming severe with large hail and damaging winds. The greatest instability will be over the Permian Basin into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend where large hail over golfball size (potentially 2"+) will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. The severe threat may shift to our east by late Wednesday evening but a few showers and storms may persist into Thursday night under the southwesterly flow aloft. Localized flash flooding will be possible with storms that have intense rainfall rates. Highs Wednesday afternoon remain below normal with readings in the 70s and 80s over much of the region, except 90s along the Rio Grande. Lows Wednesday night range in the 50s and 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 By Friday, the dryline looks to set up somewhere along our far eastern counties or just to the east of our forecast area. Meanwhile, guidance shows an upper-level low located over Baja, leaving the region under southwest flow aloft. This may allow for an isolated shower/storm or two to develop, but the best chances are currently expected to be east of our forecast area. Chances (10-30%) of showers and storms increase Friday evening with the retreating dryline. Long-range guidance keeps us under a similar pattern through the weekend/early next week (with the help of upslope flow), yielding shower and storm chances each day in the extended. At this time, there is uncertainty in rainfall totals, which will depend on where remnant boundaries set up and the track of the aforementioned upper-level low. Otherwise, afternoon highs are forecast to be in the 80s (90s in many spots on Friday) for most each day. Overnight lows bottom out into the 50s and 60s each night. Greening && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions expected through at least 06Z, then MVFR CIGs enter most terminals by 12Z. There may be a late lifting back to VFR after 18Z but have left it out of these TAFs. SHRA and ISOLD TS will develop after 18Z possibly affecting any of the terminals but confidence in timing and location is too low to include. Hennig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 59 77 60 81 / 10 40 60 40 Carlsbad 61 83 59 88 / 10 30 30 20 Dryden 66 84 64 85 / 30 40 80 30 Fort Stockton 63 85 61 87 / 10 60 60 30 Guadalupe Pass 60 79 58 81 / 10 20 20 10 Hobbs 55 75 55 82 / 10 40 40 30 Marfa 53 86 51 82 / 0 20 40 20 Midland Intl Airport 60 77 60 82 / 10 50 60 30 Odessa 61 78 61 82 / 10 50 60 30 Wink 61 82 60 86 / 10 40 50 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...10  364 FXUS61 KAKQ 192341 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 741 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated the aviation section for the 00z TAFs Lowered high temperatures slightly on Thursday and Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot and dry conditions continue through much of the day tomorrow. A strong cold front will bring the potential for strong to severe storms to northern portions of the area later tomorrow evening into tomorrow night. 2) Cooler and more unsettled conditions Thursday and especially Friday in the wake of the front. Cool and unsettled conditions may continue through much of the Holiday Weekend as the front lingers near the area. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and dry conditions continue through much of the day tomorrow. A strong cold front will bring the potential for strong to severe storms to northern portions of the area later tomorrow evening into tomorrow night. High pressure remains centered well offshore leading to continued warm S-SW flow across the area this afternoon. Temperatures have climbed into the low-mid 90s for most locations away from the immediate coast. Near-record highs are possible this afternoon, with the best chance for a record high at Richmond. Remaining mild tonight with lows ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Similar conditions are expected on Wednesday as compressional heating maximizes ahead of an approaching cold front. Strong mixing and ongoing drought conditions will continue to allow early morning dewpoints to mix out by afternoon, falling back into the upper 50s to low 60s. Highs on Wednesday will again range from the mid to upper 90s inland to the lower 90s closer to the coast. By Wednesday afternoon, a cold front will approach the area and showers and storms are expected to develop, focusing along the pre- frontal trough to our northwest. Model trends continue to slow the arrival of the cold front, lagging into later Wednesday evening across the north, and Thursday morning south of US-460 into NE NC. 12z CAMs continue to show sparse convection only reaching northern and western portions of the area, likely staying out of the RIC metro through much of Wednesday evening. SPC has maintained a Day 2 Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for the northern half of the forecast area with the afternoon update. The risk of severe storms still looks marginal locally, with the better instability and forcing located to our N/NW. Still think there is a decent potential storms may begin to dissipate by the time they reach the local area. Still, a few stronger to severe storms remain possible, especially for areas north of Richmond and over to the Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat with any stronger storms, though an isolated instance of large hail cannot be ruled out. KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler and more unsettled conditions Thursday and especially Friday in the wake of the front. Cool and unsettled conditions may continue through much of the Holiday Weekend as the front lingers near the area. A shortwave trough is progged to lift across the upper Midwest into eastern Canada late Wednesday into Thursday. This will serve to dampen the SE ridge, while allowing cool high pressure to settle over the Great Lakes and SE Canada. Meanwhile, the cold front pushes south of the area Thursday. The cold front then settles south of the area and stalls over the Carolinas on Friday. Increasing overrunning moisture and quickly rising PW values allow rain chances to ramp up quickly late Thursday and Thursday night, leaving an emerging cool air/CAD wedge setup for Friday, with highs in the 60s to 70s forecast. Still some uncertainty with respect to the cool air/CAD wedge setup as we head into the weekend. There are some indications that the airmass may linger through much of Saturday (and potentially Sunday) before a warm front slowly lifts over the area and the CAD airmass erodes. The front then likely gets hung up over northern portions of the area and lingers into early next week. This will lead to the potential for continued unsettled conditions throughout the holiday weekend and cooler temperatures than currently in the forecast for both Saturday and Sunday. Gradual warming is expected heading into early next week as mid-level ridging rebuilds east of the Rockies. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 740 PM EDT Tuesday VFR conditions prevail for the 00z/20 TAF period. Clear or mostly clear skies are forecast for the bulk of the period, then clouds increase from the NW late tomorrow as a cold front approaches the region. There's a low-end chance for showers/storms to impact RIC/SBY by the end of the period, but the front has slowed down and most precip is not expected until after 00z/21. SW winds around 10kt forecast through the period, gusting up to 20kt at times. Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible starting Wednesday night as a cold front brings showers and storms to the local area. An unsettled pattern will likely bring additional restrictions through the end of the week and into the weekend. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Mainly sub-SCA conditions are expected across the local waters through Wednesday with primarily S-SW winds. - A front crosses the waters Thursday morning, bringing the next chance at SCA conditions from Thursday through Friday due to NE winds of 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. High pressure will remain anchored near Bermuda through Wednesday, while a cold front slowly approaches from the north (but the front will remain north of the waters through Wednesday evening). Current marine wind obs indicate S-SW winds of 10-15 kt. Winds will increase to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt on the bay this evening-early tonight (and 15-20 kt w/ 25 kt gusts on the ocean). Winds diminish back to 10-15 kt by late tonight, and remain in that range through Wed with the stagnant pattern. Will likely see a few 20 kt gusts on the bay late Wed aftn-Wed evening. This pattern will finally start to break down as a cold front approaches the area late Wednesday into Wednesday night. This cold front is currently forecast to cross the waters some time early Thursday morning with increasing NE winds behind it. NE winds will average 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt from Thursday through Friday. SCAs appear likely for portions of the bay (due to winds) and coastal waters N of the VA-NC border (due to seas building to 5-6 ft behind the front). Local wind probabilities show a relatively high (60-90%) chance of sustained 18 kt winds on the middle/lower bay from Thu-Fri. Winds diminish and become more variable this weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes some. While the GFS still has 10-20 kt NE winds over the weekend, it is an outlier at this time. There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches (including Ocean City, MD) through Wednesday, with a low risk elsewhere. With increasing winds and seas associated with a frontal passage on Thursday, all beaches will see a moderate rip current risk. && .CLIMATE... As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday... Richmond set a new record high Monday of 96 degrees. This broke the previous record of 95 degrees set in 1911. Another day of near-record to record-breaking heat is expected today, with record high minimum temperatures also possible. Record High Temps for 5/19 - 5/20 Record Record High/Year High/Year Location 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- Richmond 97 (1962) 97 (2022) Norfolk 96 (1880) 98 (1996) Salisbury 97 (2011) 98 (1911) Eliz. City 95 (1996) 98 (1996) Record High Min Temps for 5/19 - 5/20 Record Record High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- Richmond 71 (1997) 71 (2018) Norfolk 72 (2017) 73 (1996) Salisbury 70 (1929) 70 (2018) Eliz. City 72 (2018) 73 (2018) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJB/MAM AVIATION...AC MARINE...ERI CLIMATE...MAM  363 FXUS61 KBOX 192341 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 741 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No changes were made to this forecast package. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Lingering thunderstorm activity quickly winds down with the loss of daytime heating. Expecting very warm minimum temps tonight with lows in the 60s and low to mid 70s in more urban areas. - Final day of record warmth Wednesday with highs in the 90s away from the immediate coast. Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms by the afternoon with a risk for damaging winds and small hail. - Cooler temperatures through Memorial Day Weekend. Unsettled weather returns for the weekend with periods of rain possible, but confidence is low. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Lingering thunderstorm activity quickly winds down with the loss of daytime heating. Expecting very warm minimum temps tonight with lows in the 60s and low to mid 70s in more urban areas. Showers and storms are expected to develop across western portions of our CWA between 3 and 5pm and then quickly move east. Main but guidance is showing the potential for storms to initiate over the Southern Adirondacks and Green Mountains and then gradually coalesce into a more organized line or cluster that generally moves west to east through the afternoon. Main threats with any organized storms will be strong to damaging straight-line winds given drier air in the low to mid-levels resulting in inverted-V soundings. Somewhat notably, the 12z ALB and OKX soundings featured a modified EML between 700 and 500mb with mid level lapse rates between 6.5 and 7.5 C/km. Thankfully RAP mesoanalysis indicates limited bulk shear around 25 kt this afternoon so we're not looking at a widespread severe weather episode. Still, with CAPE values between 1200 and 1500 J/kg, there could be a severe storm or two north of the Mass Pike. Activity quickly wanes with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Bigger story tonight will be continued heat in humidly. Overnight lows remain in the upper 60s for much of the region and closer to the lower and even middle 70s across urban areas. These temperatures, paired with dewpoints in the 60s will keep apparent temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s even well into the night. Those without adequate access to cooling and air conditioning are at greatest risk with the elevated overnight lows. There won't be much in the way of relief from winds as the boundary layer decouples and winds calm to less than 5 mph for much of the CWA. KEY MESSAGE 2... Final day of record warmth Wednesday with highs in the 90s away from the immediate coast. Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms by the afternoon with a risk for damaging winds and small hail. Upper level ridge begins to break down on Wednesday ahead of an approaching trough. Despite the changes to the upper pattern, 850 temps will remain above +15C S of the Mass Pike and slightly cooler to the N. Guidance has somewhat increased the speed of the cold front resulting in increased cloud cover over much of northern Massachusetts where temperatures have trended a few degrees cooler. Even in these areas, still think that valley locations see highs in the low 90s with downsloping from west winds. Further south, there is higher confidence in more widespread readings in the low to mid 90s away from the water. Greatest chance will be in the HFD PVD and BOS urban corridor. Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s (discounting the outlier NAM) will make it feel humid but not tropical by any means. An approaching cold front provides a much more robust lifting mechanism on Wednesday. With temperatures quickly warming into the 90s, expecting surface CAPE values to rise to 1000-1500 J/kg. 0-6km bulk shear values, while fine (25-30 kts), are less favorable for organized severe weather than they are further north where the stronger mid level flow resides. So, the ingredients are there for some strong to severe storms. Wednesday the cold front will serve as a better lifting mechanism, timed coincident with peak diurnal heating so would expect more coverage of storms and any storms that do form have the chance to produce strong to damaging winds primarily given inverted-v soundings. Greatest threat for any severe weather will likely be S of the Mass Pike where higher instability exists. KEY MESSAGE 3...Cooler and unsettled weather is possible Memorial Day Weekend, but confidence remains low. High pressure builds and mid-level ridging building in behind Wednesday's system bringing near-seasonable temperatures and dry conditions. For Memorial Day weekend there is a signal for the pattern to become more unsettled with a few disturbances moving through bringing periods of rain. However, there is still a sufficient amount uncertainty in the details of the track and timing of the waves which will influence rain chances, timing, and amounts this holiday weekend. Across deterministic guidance, there is plenty of spread in the track and details of a system that moves in from the Ohio Valley. This has led to a range of scenarios from a drier weekend with seasonable temperatures to a weekend with periods of rain and cooler temperatures. Whats adds to the uncertainty is the lack of consistency of models from run to run as well. From a probabilistic view, ensemble means are keying in on moderate probabilities for rain across their respective members at this time, so the risk is there for periods of rain over the weekend into the holiday. We'll have to keep monitoring as well get closer and model guidance comes into better agreement. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00Z TAF Update: Tonight...High confidence. Low to moderate confidence for ACK CIGS VFR overnight for most of the terminals. Possible IFR at ACK with areas of fog (lower confidence). SW winds 8-15 kts. LLWS possible for east and southeast terminals overnight. Wednesday...Moderate confidence (TSRA chances). VFR. Scattered TSRA along and ahead of a cold front in the afternoon and evening. Given widely scattered nature and uncertainty in location of TSRA, have not included in TAF (lower confidence). WSW winds 8-12 kts with gusts 20-25 kts turning NW behind the cold front between 16-00Z. Brief strong gusts possible in any thunderstorms. KBOS...High confidence in TAF. KBDL...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday through Sunday/... Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Thursday through Friday: VFR. Friday Night through Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Wednesday: High confidence. Small craft advisories remain in effect through 06z Thurs. SW winds of 15-25 kt continues this afternoon and overnight Seas will also be building to around 4-6 ft, with some 7 footers possible tonight over the southern waters. Mainly dry weather prevails through tonight with a few showers or thunderstorms possible for the northern waters., Some fog may persist and expand across the southern waters tonight on increasing southwest winds. Outlook /Wednesday through Sunday/... Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers. && .CLIMATE... Record Highs for Tue May 19... BOS 90/2017 BDL 94/1962 PVD 91/2017 ORH 92/1962 Record Highs for Wed May 20... BOS 91/1996 BDL 99/1996 PVD 95/1996 ORH 91/1903 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ002>004. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ003-004. MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for MAZ003>007-010>019- 026. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ006-007- 013>019. RI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for RIZ001>004. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for RIZ001>008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ254>256. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mensch/FT AVIATION...Mensch/FT MARINE...BW CLIMATE...BW/Hrencecin  446 FXUS61 KBGM 192343 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 743 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The threat for severe thunderstorms for today continues to diminish. That being said, still cannot rule out an isolated stronger thunderstorm late this afternoon or this evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot and humid conditions continues this afternoon, with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible through this evening. 2) Following the passage of a cold front tonight and Wednesday morning, much cooler temperatures will return for the rest of the week and into the weekend. 3) Memorial Day weekend continues to look showery and cool, with perhaps slightly drier conditions and warmer temperatures by Memorial Day itself. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Cloud cover from this morning has lingered into this afternoon. As a result, instability is largely lacking. A few isolated showers have developed, but due to this limited instability and lack of forcing, these have not been able to develop into thunderstorms up to this point (as of 2:15PM). A few pulse thunderstorms still could develop at any point this afternoon or early evening, but the overall threat for severe thunderstorms continues to diminish. A more organized line of showers and thunderstorms will likely track eastward through Western NY this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Some of those thunderstorms could be strong to severe, but indications point to this line dissipating as it approaches Central NY and Northeast PA with the loss of daytime heating and the lack of elevated instability to maintain convection overnight. KEY MESSAGE 2... As a cold front pushes eastward through the area on Wednesday, much cooler and drier air will filter in behind it. Dew points will fall from the lower 60s around dawn to the 40s for most of the area by the late afternoon. Temperatures will also gradually drop, or remain steady in the 60s; at least for Central NY. Farther to the south and east (Wyoming Valley-Poconos- Catskills), warmer air may linger longer as the cold front likely doesn't pass through those areas until the afternoon on Wednesday. This also means that some isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible for those areas in the afternoon, but right now it appears any threat for severe thunderstorms should be east of the area/closer to the coast. Following the passage of the cold front, colder air will remain in place through the remainder of the week with highs mainly in the 60s and overnight lows mainly in the 40s. KEY MESSAGE 3... Memorial Day weekend unfortunately continues to look unsettled with showers and cool weather, as moisture advects into the region from the south and an upper level low moving in from the west. The most widespread showers will be on Saturday, which will also be the coolest day with highs only in the 50s for most of the area. Scattered showers will likely linger through at least Sunday. Depending on how quickly the above mentioned upper level low exits the area to the east, Monday/Memorial Day could either be another day of scattered showers, or perhaps a mainly dry day. Either way, Memorial Day should feature a return to near-normal temperatures with highs mainly in the 70s, after several below normal days. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... With the timing of the cold front passage not for another few hours still, confidence is low that any showers or thunderstorms hold together long enough to reach any terminals. SYR and ELM have the best chance if the storms do make it and an amendment will be made if so. CIGs fall to MVFR across CNY behind the front overnight, with a few isolated rain showers or drizzle. ITH and RME have the best shot of rain showers overnightwith the help of the terrain but rain cant be ruled out at any of the other CNY terminals. The front does not reach AVP until tomorrow late morning into the early afternoon. There will be some thunderstorms to form along the front in the late morning into early afternoon for AVP so a prob30 has been introduced for rough timing. Dry air mixes down across CNY so terminals in NY will trend towards VFR by the 16Z to 19Z timeframe. Outlook: Wednesday night through Friday...Mainly VFR. Friday night through Sunday...Periods of rain and embedded thunderstorms likely along with associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJG AVIATION...AJG/JAB  456 FXUS61 KCLE 192343 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 743 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for western counties until 7PM this evening. Some convection has begun to develop upstream of the area and is expected to move into the destabilizing area across NW OH. Current temperatures have surged into the mid 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s. The primary concern remains strong winds. Will need to continue to monitor conditions further east to determine if any expansion is needed. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) The entire area remains highlighted in Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather late this afternoon into the evening. Primary threat remains strong winds, although localized heavy rainfall and small hail are possible. 2) A big cool down is on the way for Wednesday and Thursday as high moves into the area. 3) An unsettled weather pattern with multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... This afternoon, a few light showers continue to linger across far NEOH and NWPA, keeping cloud cover over that portion of the area and limiting keeping destabilization at a minimum right now. However, across western counties, cloud decks have scattered out and temperatures have quickly rose into the low 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s, trending towards the low 70s. This has allowed for rapid destabilization with modeled soundings suggesting SB CAPE already in the 2000-2500 J/kg range and steepening low level lapse rates close to 8 C/km. The best shear with this event should remain north of the area with bulk shear values in the 15-25 knot range. Given these environmental conditions, would not be surprised to see some isolated storms develop this afternoon ahead of a main line expected to push east later this evening. DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg add confidence that the primary hazard concern with any convection with be strong to damaging winds. Cannot rule out some small hail, especially in the discrete cells ahead of the primary line. The tornado threat remains very low, although not zero, given the best shear is to the north of the area. Any quick spin ups that do occur would likely be embedded within the line of convection this evening. The final concern is locally heavy rainfall, especially in the most developed cells, that could lead to localized ponding on area roads. Modeled soundings suggest that brief training of cells could occur this evening along the boundary which would coincide in timing with an increased warm cloud layer and PWAT push. Overall concern for widespread flooding this evening remains low, but to highlight the potential WPC has included the entire area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) ERO today. KEY MESSAGE 2... Late tonight, a strong cold front is expected to move east across the area, marking a transition back to much cooler temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures are expected to be nearly 20 degrees cooler compared to today, only climbing into the upper 50s to low 60s as 850mb of 5-7C nudge south over the area. Some lingering showers will be possible across the southern tier of counties on Wednesday before the cold front fully pushes south and high pressure dries everything out through Thursday. Unfortunately, that means that Wednesday will be rather dreary as cloud coverage across the area lingers before peaks of sunshine return on Thursday. To compliment daytime highs, overnight lows Wednesday night will fall into the low to mid 40s and into the upper 40s to low 50s Thursday night. At this point, there is no concern for a late season frost. KEY MESSAGE 3... The upcoming holiday weekend will be fairly unsettledas multiple shortwave troughs push east across the region, bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms to the area as a near stationary boundary settles somewhere near the CWA. Initially, this boundary on Friday should begin to push north of the area, marking a transition back to warmer and more seasonable temperatures for the weekend. Then this boundary will ebb and flow over the CWA as the aforementioned troughs push east. As moisture increases over the area, multiple rounds of rainfall, potentially heavy at times, will result in possible flood concerns across area rivers and potential aerial flooding where rain persists. WPC has already highlighted the area in a Day 4 Marginal (level 1 of 5) ERO. The thunder potential should be isolated to daytime hours as diurnal instability adds additional support for shower development, but any severe potential remains uncertain at this time. Highs throughout the weekend will be in the 70s with mild overnight lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... A line of thunderstorms are moving across Ohio currently located along the I-71 corridor, west of KCLE and east of KFDY. The line will continue to move eastward over the next few hours until it clears out of the region and east of KYNG by 04Z. With the thunderstorms, periodic gusts of up to 30-40 knots are expected as well as heavy rain dropping visibility down to IFR conditions. Behind the convection, a cold front will pass through the region and winds will begin to shift to be out of the northwest by 05-09Z, then out of the north by midday Wednesday. Additionally, ceilings will lower behind the front down to MVFR with some IFR possible KMFD, KCAK, KYNG, KERI. Conditions will steadily improve towards the end of the TAF period. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in periodic showers late Friday through Saturday. && .MARINE... Southwest winds gusting 20-30kts over the western basin and 15-25kts over the central and eastern basins ahead of a strong cold front that will come through later this evening/tonight. At that point, winds will come onshore in the wake of that front, northwesterly 10-15kts later tonight, and then northeasterly Wednesday into Wednesday night 10-15kts, and then 15-20kts Thursday through Friday night. Small Craft Advisories may be needed in these northeasterly winds for the middle and end of the week. Winds variable around 10kts for the weekend. && .CLIMATE... A record high temperature occurred at Erie, Pennsylvania on Monday. High temperatures today will approach record values at some locations again. The following are the records for May 19. Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 05-19 92(1996) 88(1964) 88(1998) 91(1911) 89(1934) 90(1996) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>144. && $$ DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...23 MARINE...26  567 FXUS61 KILN 192345 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 745 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to timing/pcpn chances tonight. Trended pops upward for Wednesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Strong to severe storms are possible late this afternoon and evening. 2) Showers will linger into the day on Wednesday. As the cold front moves to the southeast, a cooler airmass will settle into the region for Thursday. 3) Periods of rain with embedded thunderstorms are expected Friday with additional chances for precipitation through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) A mid level short wave will move east-northeast across the Ohio Valley region this afternoon into tonight as a cold front slowly drops southeast into our region overnight. Moist southwest flow ahead of this will allow for decent moisture advection up into our area with PWs nudging up to around 1.8 inches or so heading into the overnight hours. Meanwhile, ample sunshine across our area this afternoon has helped push MLCapes into the 1500 to 2000 J/KG range early this afternoon for areas along and northwest of I-71 and these will likely continue to increase a bit more over the next few hours. While the better deep layer shear will generally remain off to our northwest, 0-6 km shear values in the 20 to 25 knot range will develop into mainly our northwest areas later this afternoon and into this evening. While some isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the instability gradient through mid afternoon, expect a more consolidated axis of showers and thunderstorms to move into the area from the west late this afternoon and into this evening, before likely weakening as in moves into our eat/southeast and the forcing and instability begins to wane later tonight. With the low level shear fairly weak, expect the main threat to be damaging winds, especially given DCAPES are already in the 1000-1200 J/KG range across our northwest. With the potential for some stronger updrafts in the better instability, some large hail may also be possible early into the event later this afternoon/early evening. Expect the best chance for severe to be along and northwest of the I-71 corridor, with the highest chance across our far west/northwest. While the activity will be fairly progressive, locally heavy rainfall will be possible given the elevated PWs. This could lead to a lower end flooding threat, especially for areas across our Indiana counties, where 1 to locally 2 inches of rain fell with Monday's event. KEY MESSAGE 2) A secondary mid level short wave will ride northeast along the front on Wednesday, helping to slow the southeast progression of the front. Expect fairly widespread shower activity to linger into the day on Wednesday and with the potential for some weak instability across our southeast, some embedded thunderstorms will be possible into the afternoon. Any lingering pcpn across our southeast should taper off heading into Wednesday evening. A cooler airmass will be in place across the region on Thursday with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. KEY MESSAGE 3) Additional rounds of mid level energy will lift northeast through the Ohio Valley Friday into the weekend. Models are suggesting a surface wave may develop on Friday, leading to widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms. In continued moist southwest flow, temperatures will moderate through the weekend. The potential will exist for additional chances for showers and thunderstorms into the weekend but this will be at least somewhat dependent on the timing and placement of the mid level energy. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Thunderstorms beginning to congeal into a line in portions of westernOH, allowing for stronger wind gusts with these storms for now. Evolution of storms will be a bit chaotic overnight. This line will push eastward and may impact KCMH/KLCK, and perhaps KILN. However, there is expected to be some weakening due to the loss of daytime heating. Additional storms still expected to redevelop overnight, with potential for multiple waves of showers/storms as a cold front slowly works its way through. CIGs expected to quickly lower to MVFR and then IFR with the passage of the front. Probabilities remain high enough from guidance to warrant IFR CIGs through majority of daytime hours Wednesday. A passing shower still possible Tuesday morning and afternoon before the precip ends. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Friday into Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGL AVIATION...Clark  652 FXUS65 KFGZ 192345 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 445 PM MST Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions are in store for much of the week and next weekend, along with typical afternoon breezes. && .DISCUSSION...The remainder of the week will feature a slow and steady rise in temperatures, dry conditions and generally light southwesterly winds each afternoon. A weak trough does persist over the area through at least Friday, so some of those afternoon gusts may have a little extra speed at times, but nothing impactful. By next weekend, ridging forms over the area and we should expect temperatures to rise a bit above normal as a result. However, it still looks very dry. There are some hints of a modest increase in mid-level moisture for Sunday/Monday, which could lead to isolated and high-based showers. However, amounts are likely to remain in the trace category, or just VIRGA. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 20/00Z through Thursday 21/00Z...VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds light and variable or terrain driven overnight, S-SW 5-15kts, gusts 20-25kts daytime. OUTLOOK...Thursday 21/00Z through Saturday 23/00Z...VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Daytime winds SW-W 5-15kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. Winds are west through southwest 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph each day, along with a minimum RH of 5-15%. Friday through Sunday....Continued dry conditions with warming temperatures. Winds are west through southwest 5-15 mph each day. Minimum RH is 5-15% on Friday, then 10-20% on Saturday and Sunday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...Bernhart FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  711 FXAK67 PAJK 192347 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 347 PM AKDT Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Wednesday a gale force system brings widespread rain to the region. - Showers over the panhandle on Thursday, then another front weakening and falling apart Friday. - Quick look at the holiday weekend is, it is becoming more likely that a potentially stronger Summer system to move to the panhandle Sunday. && .SHORT TERM...The active (by spring standards) pattern looks set to continue through the duration of the period, as a series of troughs and ridges continue to move up along the eastern flank of a Rossby wave over the Pacific. A ridge moving over the southern panhandle will bring drier weather through late Tuesday night for areas south of Frederick Sound. The northern half of SE AK will see lingering showers as moisture rotates in along the ridge axis, further fueled by the remnants of a shortwave trough which will move in through Tuesday evening. On Wednesday, a far better developed system moves into the Gulf, deepening as it moves toward Anchorage. The low will throw a gale force front into the panhandle, which is progged to arrive Wednesday morning across the Outer Coast and by Wednesday afternoon for the rest of the area. This front will bring with it periods of widespread moderate rain and windy conditions. Given the presence of saturation across the atmospheric column, most of SE AK will see a total of ~1 to 2 inches of rain. Given the system's trajectory,the NE Gulf Coast favored for the greater totals. The far southern panhandle will be the exception, as they could receive lower totals of ~0.5 to 1 inch as the bulk of the initial system moves north, although a trailing cold front moving through Wednesday night will bring some additional rainfall to this area. Flooding concerns are not expected, as snow levels will remain on the lower side for this time of year, and so do not expect much augmentation of the streams from mountain runoff, alongside the rain itself. Some snow may mix in with rain during the overnight hours - especially Thursday night - at White Pass, but do not expect any significant accumulations. Gusty winds will also be widespread, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph on Wednesday across much of central and northern SE AK, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph for the southern panhandle. The system will depart on Thursday, with another ridge moving across the panhandle. Similar to the previous ridge, the best chances of some lingering rain showers will be for the northern half of the area and the inner coastal mountains, while the south will be mostly on the drier side by late Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will trend toward the cooler side, with low temperatures getting down into the low 40s or even upper 30s. .LONG TERM.../ Friday to Tuesday / A front sweeps the western gulf Thursday evening and to the eastern Gulf of Alaska Thursday night and Friday. Yakutat should see good rain rates Thursday night and early. The front is forecast to be weakening, as the feature moves way from the parent low which stayed over Bristol Bay so the feature that rolls across the panhandle Friday is a frontal band followed by a ridge over the gulf to the panhandle for the start of the weekend. For the Memorial Day Weekend / Saturday to Monday / The models have started to agree on a system to impact primarily the southern panhandle after moving in from the Gulf of Alaska, mainly for Sunday, however its intensity and track are uncertain at this point. Ensemble means and a variety of operational models are trending toward a 995 to 1000 mb low heading in the general direction of Dixon Entrance by Sunday night, but there are indications the low could be stronger,and some outliers are pointing toward a much further south track and weaker low. Overall the weekend may be cool and damp or could be wet and windy, especially over the southern panhandle on Sunday depending on how this system evolves. && .AVIATION... Other than some brief CIGS between 1500-2500 ft dropping conditions to MVFR, on shore flow is bringing generally VFR conditions across the area today. Late tonight into Wednesday morning, a front will bring rain chances and strong winds to the Panhandle. LLWS is expected begin for Yakutat around 08Z with 30 kts and increasing to 45kts around 15Z. All locations will see an increase in wind speed, and this front will also increase precipitation chances from west to east across the Panhandle. Expect conditions to deteriorate to IFR for the Southern Panhandle with CIGS AoA 700 ft and VSBYS 3-4 SM. Tonight, clearing is expected to lead to fog development for areas south of Fredrick Sound. The fog will bring those locations down to IFR conditions, and will likely stay through the rainfall arriving with the front around the end of the TAF period. Based on satellite, Klawock is experiencing the most clearing and the greatest chance for fog. Although, brief improvement does look possible before the rain arriving with the front. && .MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters):On this beautiful Southeast day, winds and seas are in the relative calm before the gale, with coastal buoys and ASCAT winds showing gentle to moderate breezes out of the south; the exception is Cape St. Elias, seeing ESE strong breezes. Riding underneath these winds was a diminishing southwest swell, with buoy 84 showing an astonishingly clear swell signal 12-14 seconds at 6 ft earlier today. The story will begin to change today as a gale force front impacts the region over the next 48 hours; currently this system is developing near 48N 158W and moving northeast. As gales build along Cape St. Elias Tuesday evening, winds will continue to increase along the rest of our coast, reaching near-gale to gale force by Wednesday morning. Confidence is high that we will see gales from the Fairweather Grounds to the northern coast. The primary forecast challenge for winds today remains in how far south gale force winds will move. Mariners north of Cape Decision operating along the coast should plan for a few hours of gale force winds as the front moves over, sometime near 2pm to 5pm local time Wednesday. Fresh seas out of the southeast will also begin to dominate, with southwest swell being masked and significant heights reaching 12 to 15 ft by Wednesday afternoon. Expect winds and seas to diminish Thursday afternoon before westerly swell of 7 to 9 ft at 13 to 15 seconds begins to impact our coast by the weekend. Inside (Inner Channels): Winds are in their calm period this Tuesday afternoon. Expect winds to build out of the south early Wednesday morning, with sustained winds reaching peak intensity of strong breezes to near- gales through many inner channels Wednesday. Current model consensus is the strongest winds will occur sometime in the afternoon to evening, depending on where you are in Southeast, with the highest winds from Icy Strait/Taku south to Sumner. However, the simple message is it will be a wet and windy Wednesday, with subpar conditions for folks wishing to move around in small recreational vessels. Conditions will improve greatly by Thursday afternoon. One word of caution is the northern arms of Glacier Bay could be particularly strong Wednesday night into Thursday morning as an occluding front makes landfall along the northern coast. Expect strong southeast winds to quickly becoming south; this wind shift could surprise some folks. Mariners near any large inlets in the upper arms of Glacier Bay like Reid Inlet should be ready for gale force gusts coming off the ice field. These gusts could be stronger. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ323-325- 327. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ642>644-651-652-662>664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-053-641-661. && $$ SHORT TERM...GFS LONG TERM...Bezenek AVIATION...Musall MARINE...AP Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  719 FXUS63 KGRR 192347 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 747 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Brief Window For Showers and Storms this Afternoon - Dry and Cooler Wednesday into Thursday, Frost Possible - Showers and Storms Return Friday into Saturday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 216 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 - Brief Window For Showers and Storms this Afternoon Thunderstorms have developed east of a Kalamazoo to Lansing line. It is in this area where surface based CAPE is highest (1500 to 2000 J/kg) with shear values around 35 knots. This is also in the area of better moisture convergence. Downdraft CAPE values are also around 1000 J/kg. With these factors strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through 5pm with damaging winds as the primary risk and small hail as the secondary. As we head into the evening our instability and shear move east with dry conditions moving in behind the cold front. - Dry and Cooler Wednesday into Thursday, Frost Possible High pressure builds in for Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the mid 50s to 60s. Within this cooler air mass frost is possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning mainly for inland and northern portions of the forecast area. There is a 20 percent chance that areas along and north of US-10 for temperatures at or below freezing. If winds stay in the 5 to 15 mph range overnight, frost would not be a concern. - Showers and Storms Return Friday into Saturday Low level moisture returns ahead of a shortwave trough expected to move through Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. This will bring another round of showers and storms to the area with drier conditions trending for the rest of the weekend into next week. There is decent agreement as seen in the cluster analysis with most members keeping the area dry with temperatures warming up again into next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 747 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Rain showers or drizzle in the vicinity of a cold front will be passing through this evening. Patches of MVFR ceilings/visibility are occurring with brief temporary IFR reported at a few locations. MVFR ceilings will likely persist in patches across the area tonight, perhaps staying prevailing into Wed morning. Clouds are favored to scatter out with bases above 3,000 feet Wed afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 216 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Winds and waves will gradually come down this evening with some isolated Small Craft Advisory gusts through the overnight. If winds trend lower the Small Craft Advisory could end earlier. A brief period of northerly Small Craft Advisory winds and 4 foot waves is possible Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, easterly winds will keep wave heights down through the remainder of the week. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...CAS MARINE...RAH  694 FXUS65 KPSR 192346 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 446 PM MST Tue May 19 2026 .UPDATE...Updated 00Z Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - A broad scale troughing pattern will persist over the western U.S. through the end of the workweek keeping temperatures overall near normal. - Weak shortwave ridging will build over the Desert Southwest this weekend,allowing temperatures to rise a few degrees above normal, with lower desert highs reaching the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. - Dry conditions, with no threat of rain, and seasonal afternoon breezes are expected through the next several days. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Latest GOES infrared wv imagery and 500 mb streamline analysis reveals a broad trough of low pressure extending from the Pacific NW into the Central Plains. Our forecast area still remains at the base of this positively tilted trough with a broad fetch of southwesterly flow currently in place over the forecast area. A plume of Pacific moisture is currently being pulled NE into the Desert Southwest this afternoon which is resulting in abundant high cloud cover. Despite the increased cloudiness, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s to lower 90s across the lower deserts, slightly warmer than yesterday, but still around 3 to 5 degrees below normal. Very dry air at the sfc (Td ranging from the single digits to the 20s) will again result in another relatively cool night across the region with lows ranging from the mid 50s to upper 60s. On Wednesday and Thursday, the troughing pattern will remain intact over the Intermountain West, which will keep 500 mb hghts near to slightly below seasonal levels in a 575-576 dam range. Despite the below normal 500 mb hght field, there will be a slight warming trend in the low-level thermal profile which will promote at least a degree or two increase in temperatures mid-week. This will result in highs reaching back into the mid to upper 90s in most lower desert communities both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. Winds each day will mostly follow seasonal trends; light winds during the overnight and morning hours and modest upslope breezes in the afternoons with gusts up to 15-25 mph. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The slow warming trend is forecast to continue through Friday and this coming weekend. Global ensemble guidance supports the large- scale synoptic pattern across the west finally evolving out of the current state, with the strong blocking ridge near B.C. Canada giving way/weakening as a strong low traverses across Alaska. This change will result in at least a temporary de-amplification of the pattern across the western CONUS for the weekend and a trend toward positive 500mb height anomalies with brief anticyclonic flow developing over the Desert Southwest. This trend will lead to high temperatures reaching into the upper 90s by Friday and pushing 100 degrees by Sunday - Monday (30-60% odds of >=100). This pattern shift will also allow for some moisture to seep into AZ, from the southeast and with evening gulf surges, as global guidance shows a slow uptrend in PWATs Friday through the weekend. This may end up leading to some AZ high terrain afternoon convection, which is supported by some low-end NBM PoPs this weekend (<25% over eastern AZ mountains). The odds are a little higher Monday with the potential for a weak Pacific low to move inland from the west, but this is about all that can be anticipated this far out. This is climatologically the driest time of year for the AZ and SoCal lower deserts, so it is hard to put much optimism into a long-range precip forecast for the lower deserts. && .AVIATION...Updated at 2345Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No aviation weather concerns are anticipated through the forecast period. W-SW winds will continue into the overnight hours, with speeds mainly aob 10 kt. = The diurnal easterly shift should occur late tonight at KIWA and KPHX. A slow transition back to W-SW is anticipated again tomorrow with a few hours of southerly/VRB winds expected prior to the shift. Winds should go W-SW by 21Z. BKN high cirrus clouds will continue through the overnight hours and slowly clear out tomorrow afternoon and evening. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation weather issues will exist through the forecast period under decreasing high cirrus decks. Current NW winds will go W later tonight and continue through the morning. Winds will then go back NW after sunrise tomorrow. Wind gusts up around 20 kt will continue at KBLH for the next couple of hours. Otherwise winds, at both terminals, will be aob 10 kt. && .FIRE WEATHER... There will be a slow day-to-day warming of temperatures, but overall high temperatures will remain near seasonal normals throughout the rest of this week. Very dry conditions will also persist through the end of the week with relative humidity bottoming out around 5-15% each day. There will be a slight bump up in moisture late this weekend/early next week that may lead to isolated dry thunderstorms in the mountains of eastern AZ, but minimum RHs will still be low around 10-15%. Overnight recoveries will be also remain poor to fair, mostly around 25-45%. Seasonal wind patterns are expected through the rest of the week, with afternoon upslope breezes up to 15-25 mph. There will also be a slight uptick in southerly up-river winds along the Colorado River Valley Friday through this weekend, but afternoon and evening gusts are currently forecast to top out in the 20-30 mph range along the river. There will also likely be a return of evening and early-overnight gulf surge boundaries moving up from the Gulf of California through the AZ deserts. These boundaries will mostly lead to a brief uptick in winds and sudden southwesterly wind shifts. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Salerno LONG TERM...Benedict AVIATION...Berislavich FIRE WEATHER...Benedict/Salerno  783 FXAK69 PAFG 192349 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 349 PM AKDT Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A broad area of low pressure continues over the western portions of the state. This will allow for multiple waves of precipitation to move across the Central/Western Interior and West Coast through the week. Additionally, southerly flow will allow for warm, dry, and windy conditions to persist through the middle portions of the week, with brief chances for precipitation Wednesday night. Southerly flow across the Alaska Range may cause wind gusts up to 55 mph in Isabel and Windy Pass. && .KEY WEATHER MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... - Gusty southerly winds are expected through the Alaska Range passes today. Wind gusts through Isabel and Windy Pass are expected to be up to 55 mph and 50 mph respectively. A Wind advisory continues for Isabel Pass and Delta Junction through 1 AM tonight. - Mostly dry conditions expected across the Interior this evening with an increased chance of precipitation on Wednesday. A Red Flag Warning continues for Delta Junction through 10 PM tonight. - Seasonably warm temperatures are expected to continue across the Interior through much of the week. West Coast and Western Interior... - Gusty S-SE winds are expected to continue across the West Coast through with an upper-level shortwave passage. Thunderstorm chances continue for portions of the Western Interior. - Showery conditions are expected along the Lower Yukon and Yukon Delta regions throughout the week. Heavier showers are expected tonight and Thursday, with light showers Wednesday. These showers will be mostly rain, especially nearer the Western Interior, but some periods of snow and light wintry mix are possible near St. Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait Coast. North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Dirunal showers along the southern portion of the Brooks Range are expected to continue through the week. Little to no precipitation is expected for the North Slope - Chilly temperatures persist with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens along the North Slope. A gradient of temperatures across the Brooks Range with highs in the 50s to near 60 along the southern slopes and low 40s for the northern slopes. - Breezy northeasterly winds along the Western North Slope weaken slightly and shift more easterly. E to ENE winds 15 to 25 mph are expected across the Arctic Coast through Wednesday. - Low clouds and areas of fog persist across the Arctic Coast and will likely remain through much of the week, especially along the Eastern Arctic Coast. && .FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION... Not much change to the overall forecast as persistence continues to hold on strong. The main driver of the forecast continues to be the Bering low that has slowly been filling in since yesterday afternoon. Farther north, high pressure continues to linger over the Arctic. This has resulted in a decent pressure gradient across the state, with the strongest winds occurring around peak heating. High pressure is expected to continue over the Arctic for much of the forecast period, allowing the easterly winds, fog, and cooler conditions to continue across the North Slope. A shortwave continues to make its way, NW, toward the Norton Sound. Guidance shows the surface low to move around St. Lawrence Island and get wrapped back in to the flow of the trough over the Bering. As this happens, another low will be moving east along the Aleutians. Models show this low to gradually weaken as it progress, reaching Bristol Bay coast sometime Thursday afternoon. This set-up will allow for the broad troughing to continue across northern Alaska, which will result in isolated showers and non- zero chances for thunderstorms through the end of the week. Compared to the previous low, this one is able to progress farther east, which will be a better set up for potential gap winds as bands of energy move across the Alaska Range over the coming days. The strongest gap winds are expected to be today and Thursday. To add on, latest model runs have shown the low to fill in slower with each run, which could help keep the surface gradient tighter as it moves towards Bristol Bay. This will play more of a role for the increased wind potential on Thursday. Meanwhile, another low will move into the northern Gulf of Alaska by Wednesday afternoon. Models are showing the potential for the low to set up between the 150 and 140 longitude lines, allowing the potential for wrap around precipitation into some portions of the Interior. Nonetheless, the prevailing southerly flow over the Alaska Range could keep areas north of the range drier with the downsloping. This, in combination with the previously mentioned gap winds, could bring Red Flag conditions through Isabel Pass and Delta Junction today and Thursday when the winds are strongest. With this next low showing the potential to progress farther east than the previous one, this will allow for easterly flow to return across portions of the Northern Interior and Yukon Flats by Thursday. These will be the best chances for isolated thunderstorms on Thursday as models are showing cape values to be around 150 J/kg, which is more than enough to get a pop-up thunderstorm with the help of topographical forcing. This will spread across to other portions of the Interior by the end of the week as a series of lows continue to move into the northern Gulf of Alaska. && .FIRE WEATHER... The overall pattern remains mostly the same through much of the week with a low in the Bering Sea and ridging over Western Canada. This pattern will continue to support broad southerly flow across the region. Downsloping effects will work to keep most of the central and eastern Interior dry and warm with a few afternoon rain showers possible. Accumulations should remain light with localized higher amounts expected in southwest Alaska and where thunderstorms are present. Although chances are low, a non-zero chance for lightning is possible this afternoon across portions central portions of the Western and Central Interior. Thunderstorm chances largely diminish after today with a slight chance for very isolated thunderstorm development later this week across the Interior, Brooks Range, and Yukon Flats. Expect high temperatures in the 60s and lows in the 40s through the week, with min RH values ranging between 20 to 30% in the central and eastern Interior and 30 to 40% in the western Interior. The greatest area of fire concern this week will be near Delta Junction as strong southerly gap winds develop Tuesday and Thursday through Isabel Pass. Sustained winds between 20 to 30 mph gusting as high as 55 mph are possible this afternoon with similar conditions expected to develop again Thursday as the pressure gradient over the Alaska Range restrengthens later this week. A Red Flag Warning was issued for Delta Junction beginning this afternoon through late Tuesday night for a combination of dry fuels, strong winds, and dry air with min RHs values near 25%. We will continue to monitor the situation near Delta Junction on Thursday as conditions are expected to near critical fire weather criteria once again. && .HYDROLOGY... Yukon River: The breakup front on the Yukon has passed Russian Mission. As of Monday evening, an ice jam 10 miles downstream of Russian Mission remains in place mostly unchanged. A Flood Warning remains in effect. Water remains high on the Yukon upriver from the breakup front due to snowmelt and the Yuki Ice Jam release. Waterhas inundated the road to the airport at both Grayling and Holy Cross. Flood warnings remain in effect. High water is expected to continue until the ice jam releases. Water levels will likely rise near the jam as higher water levels continue to move downstream towards the jam. The River Watch Team flew over the ice jam Monday afternoon and reported that it consisted of about 1 mile of in place sheet ice at river mile 190 and extends upriver 45 miles with lots of rotten sheets and chunk ice. The head of the jam looked rotten and may release soon. Chena: The Chena River continues to respond to warmer temperatures with higher elevation snowmelt leading to rivers running higher than normal, but likely remaining below action stage. Additional Information: Visit www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest hydro information. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services, law enforcement, or to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.. Additional Information: Visit www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest hydro information. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services, law enforcement, or to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely. && .EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7... To start the extended time frame on Friday, a front will have pushed well into the Interior ahead of a low in southwestern Alaska. This will bring another chance for scattered thunderstorms across a good portion of the Interior on Friday. High pressure in the Arctic will allow for persistent easterly winds to blow along the Arctic coast and northerly winds along the West Coast through the weekend. Along the front in the Northern Interior and in the Seward Peninsula/Kotzebue Sound area will be a band of numerous rain showers, with scattered showers in the Southern Interior in its wake. Periods of heavy snowfall will also be possible in the Alaska Range, with gap winds diminishing by mid to late Friday. As the front crosses the Brooks Range by Saturday morning, snow will decrease in the Alaska Range, with scattered showers continuing on the north side, including on the North Slope. Generally warm conditions will persist throughout the period south of the Brooks Range, with highs in the 50s and 60s. The West Coast will likely see highs in the 30s and 40s, with 20s and 30s on the North Slope. Additional showers will be possible across Northern Alaska early next week ahead of another potential system in southwestern Alaska. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ837-849. Flood Watch for AKZ826-830. Red Flag Warning for AKZ937. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860. && $$ Twombly MacKay - Extended Santiago - Fire Wx  739 FXUS63 KGRB 192347 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 647 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost or freeze headlines may be needed Wednesday night as lows fall into the low to mid 30s over the Northwoods. - Below normal temperatures continue throughout the week, warming back up during the weekend. - Scattered showers (30 to 60% chance) arrive Friday afternoon, lasting through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 GOES imagery and current obs show the cold front over eastern Wisconsin as of this afternoon, with winds having largely shifted to the northwest in its wake. Shower activity associated with the front has begun to erode as drier air feeds in from high pressure to the northwest. However, isolated showers will remain possible through this evening due to steepening lapse rates within CAA regime, though thunder chances will be little to none as any daytime instability wanes. Rain chances... Next chance (30 to 60%) for scattered showers arrives Friday afternoon in tandem with decent shortwave energy, lasting through much of Saturday. Moisture influx during this time will be modest as we set up under marginal return flow, with PWATs approaching one inch Friday evening. However, most instability looks to remain holed up to our south in proximity to the warm front, resulting in little to no severe weather potential. Furthermore, lack of upper-level dynamics and surface forcing mechanism would suggest very little thunder potential in general. Synoptic flow then flattens out early next week before ridging eventually builds over much of the eastern CONUS, keeping us mostly dry through the middle of next week. Temperatures... Below normal post-FROPA temperatures persist through the weekend, with highs struggling to reach 60 degrees in some areas through the end of the work week. As high pressure sits and spins overhead, frost/freeze headlines may be needed at times as lows dip down into the low to mid 30s. Current thinking is that Wednesday night would be the better setup for frost development over the Northwoods due to light winds and windows for clearing. Tonight's frost potential seems more marginal under mostly overcast skies, and would be confined mainly to Vilas county regardless. As such, have opted against a Frost Advisory for tonight. Highs then gradually moderate back to near normal by the end of the weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 647 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Widespread MVFR and low-end VFR clouds will remain across the area this evening. Downsloping northwest winds will eventually help scatter out some of the clouds later this evening and overnight. Isolated-scattered sprinkles will be possible mainly across north-central WI early this evening, but will have no impacts to aviation. Additional high-end MVFR and low-end VFR clouds are expected on Wednesday, along with some high clouds. West/northwest winds will continue to gust to around 20 kts this evening, then the gusts will wane later this evening and overnight as we lose the better daytime mixing. North winds under 10 kts are expected on Wednesday, with a lake breeze shifting winds to the east across eastern WI in the afternoon. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Goodin AVIATION.......Bersch  747 FXUS63 KTOP 192348 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 648 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool temperatures through Thursday then much warmer late this weekend into early next week. - Precipitation chances return Wednesday night and continue into early Friday though no severe weather expected. - Mainly dry conditions likely for the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Cloud cover slowly diminishing with cool north winds keeping early afternoon temps in the 50s. Clearing trend continues into tonight though northeast winds stay up somewhat and should keep any frost potential in check; NBM 10th percentile has mid 30s for lows in northern portions of Republic and Washington Counties. Dry air remains in place Wednesday but little advection should keep highs in the 60s. South to southeast flow returns around 850 mb Wednesday night inducing weak though consistent isentropic upglide into at least Thursday night for high rain chances at all locations over this period. Better coverage and intensity may come Thursday night as a southern branch upper wave moves through. Instability remains meager with MUCAPE less than 500 J/kg though PW around 1.25 inches could support some decent rain. Rain and cloud keeps Thursday's highs cool again and 60s could be aggressive in a wetter scenario. Should see a break in precip Friday for warmer temperatures. Upper troughing remains just upstream into early Saturday which supports modest precip chances Friday night but features to support precipitation beyond this are uncertain at best with large spreads in solutions by Monday evening. A general southerly low-level flow supports temperatures back above normal by Memorial Day. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 642 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 TOP/FOE cigs have been hovering near 3kft and this looks to stay that way for a few hours with the edge of MVFR stratus slow to move east. Have utilized a tempo group for the first few hours of the period before clouds eventually clear later tonight at all TAF sites. Can't entirely rule out the possibility of shallow ground fog around sunrise with skies clearing and light winds, but confidence is not high enough to mention with this issuance. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Poage AVIATION...Picha  769 FXUS64 KEWX 192348 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 648 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Line of strong to severe storms with locally heavy rain possible this evening into tonight. - Active weather pattern continues through the upcoming Memorial Holiday weekend. Rounds of storms with heavy rain could lead to localized flooding. && .UPDATE... Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 We'll see another rapidly upscaling storm pattern this evening. Edwards Plateau and Hill Country counties are under SVR Watch 232 through 4Z and Central TX counties surrounding Austin metro are under SVR Watch 233 through 06Z. We expect most of the hail and wind to be on the lower side of severe as the congealing into the upscaled line will probably replace the discrete cells in the next hour or two. The areas currently under the congealing cells could get enough training for some localized flooding in the next hour or two as well with spotty 3-5 inch amounts possible by midnight. Late evening motions should pick up some, so the metro cities might see only a inch or so but could still see some minor flooding if 2 inch amounts occur. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 At approximately 1 PM noon CDT, satellite and observations indicated a cold front to our north slowly pushing towards the Edwards Plateau. Subsidence from an MCS over South Texas last night helped to produce clearer skies than anticipated over our area this morning and has also modified the mid-level flow relative to previous model forecasts, making today's forecast less confident than usual. Namely, subsidence has allowed an area of drier and warmer near- surface air to take root around the Hill Country, but as moist Gulf air returns this afternoon this may restore more conducive conditions for storm development. The clearer skies should allow daytime warming to promote large amounts of conditional instability over South-Central Texas, to the tune of 3000-4000 J/kg of SBCAPE, and as the front to our north and a dry line to our west encounters this air with the aid of broad southwesterly flow aloft, we do expect that the overhead cap sampled in aircraft observations from near AUS and SAT will eventually be overcome in part by developing thunderstorms along the aforementioned features. The afternoon should remain mostly dry, but storms may begin developing in earnest around the periphery of South-Central Texas mainly after 5 PM CDT. The broader environment continues to favor a line of storms pushing south or southeast across our area, though given the wrinkles to the mid-troposphere there's some disagreement over where storms will form first, largely due to uncertainties with the current bubble of drier air over the Hill Country. The weak front enabling many of these storms will be sluggish, so whatever portion gets active first will have the best shot of becoming the dominant driver of storms this evening/tonight. There are going to be a few areas to initially monitor for storms as we head to the late afternoon into the evening: the front to our north, the dry line near the Rio Grande which extends into the Edwards Plateau, and a lower potential for some isolated activity with some moisture convergence ahead of these features on the I-35 corridor. The primary severe potential today arises from the storms on the front and dry line. The SPC continues to highlight up to a Level 2 of 5 (Slight) risk for severe weather over most of our area this evening. Some of the initial development over the Edwards Plateau could produce isolated large hail, but as storms start to congeal, the risk should lean more towards a potential damaging wind threat if bowing segments begin to materialize from the storm clusters. The heavy rain threat and the potential for isolated flash flooding will also need to be monitored as any slow-moving storm ahead of the front/dry line and higher rates within the lines of storms could drive up rain totals. Areas that catch the main storm complexes could see totals generally above 1" with isolated pockets above 3" within the moist environment with PWATs above the 90th percentile. Uncertainty in the overall timing of this event is somewhat high, but we expect most activity will tend to be concentrated in the evening and first half of the night, clearing out early Wednesday morning. Slightly cooler conditions should prevail in the wake of these storms Wednesday morning. A moist airmass should still remain in place aloft, though the atmosphere will take some time to reload. Temperatures will be a bit more moderated with forecast highs in the 80s. Most of the Wednesday will thus be on the drier side, but as we head later in the day sufficient destabilization and an approaching shortwave trough over West Texas could spark another round of activity along the Rio Grande late afternoon / evening on Wednesday, preferentially along the dry line. Instability should be somewhat lower for these storms compared to today's action, resulting in a lower severe threat. However, these storms could produce locally heavy rain if they advance east Wednesday night into areas saturated by earlier storms. The moist environment could allow these storms to maintain strength with sufficient energy aloft, leading to good rain chances extending from the Rio Grande eastward to the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains Wednesday night into Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The wet pattern that kicks off today should continue through the week as persistent upper-level southwesterly flow continues to carve out a favorable pathway for multiple disturbances over our area overlapping atop moist Gulf air. Each round of storms will influence the following day's storm potential, so confidence on precise timing and placement for any activity is low in the long-term forecast. However, based on the broader synoptic environment, a shortwave impulse Thursday could produce another round of activity late Thursday into early Friday. A more pronounced upper-level disturbance may push into the area over the weekend, indicating another favorable time window for potentially widespread rains. The rather stagnant upper-air pattern keeps moisture in our area through early next week, with a lack of clear indicators for a definitive ending to this wet pattern into early next week. Repeated rounds of rainfall will further moisten soils, increasing the broader potential for more surface runoff from rain as grounds saturate. The pattern may lead to widespread beneficial rain for most areas, but the most impacted portions with higher totals and rain rates may see an increasing likelihood for flash flooding or river flooding. Due to the dependence of each round of storms on the previous salvo of activity, it is impractical at this forecast range to pinpoint the areas that will be receiving the most rain, and in general, model precipitation forecasts spread substantial totals across virtually all of the South-Central Texas. Continue to check the forecast as the week progresses for those with plans this weekend for the Memorial Day holiday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Will keep to a general HRRR/RRFS trend on a convective complex moving through the 4 TAF sites from 02Z to 07Z, catching the AUS area first and SAT/SSF last. Leading edge of activity could produce some 40 knot gusts, but will only show 30 knots in the TEMPO groups. Somewhat fast evening arrival has us not expecting any IFR CIGs for now and there could be some MCS stratiform rain following the activity to preclude low cloudines after the thunder stops. Will show some late morning MVFR cigs but keep a stable VFR picture in the later periods, assuming we'll get over 80 percent coverage of storms and a worked over air mass by early Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 71 84 71 82 / 80 40 60 90 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 72 84 71 82 / 80 40 60 90 New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 84 70 83 / 80 40 60 80 Burnet Muni Airport 68 81 68 79 / 70 40 70 80 Del Rio Intl Airport 70 86 68 86 / 70 40 80 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 70 82 69 80 / 80 40 60 90 Hondo Muni Airport 70 84 69 82 / 80 30 80 70 San Marcos Muni Airport 71 84 71 82 / 80 40 60 90 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 84 72 82 / 80 50 50 90 San Antonio Intl Airport 72 85 72 83 / 80 30 70 80 Stinson Muni Airport 72 85 72 84 / 80 30 70 80 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...18  793 FXUS65 KBOU 192349 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 549 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unsettled Tuesday through Friday with scattered to numerous showers and a few storms, most numerous in/near the Front Range. - Warming and drying trend for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/... Issued at 1259 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level trough over the Great Basin with southwest flow across Colorado. The right entrance of a 100-110 knot jet will provide lift for bands of showers. Radar and satellite imagery indicate this jet lift is increasing with showers currently forming. Showers will continue through the rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Best jet lift exits the area this evening, but upslope flow and ascent ahead of the trough should provide enough lift for light showers to continue tonight. The best chance for showers shifts over eastern Colorado by sunrise Wednesday morning. Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening as upslope flow persist and lift ascent from the trough continues.  Colorado will be between systems late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. We finally see some sunshine, which will push temperatures into the 60s. This will help destabilize the airmass, with SBCAPE climbing to 500-1000 J/kg. Lift increases throughout the day ahead of an upper level trough moving east- southeast across Wyoming. Showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday afternoon and evening. Depending on the amount of instability, a few of the storms could be severe. Something to monitor over the next two days. Areas of rain are expected to linger into the overnight hours Thursday and by Friday morning, rain showers will exit the eastern plains. Most of Friday is expected to be dry with temperatures in the 60s across northeast Colorado. A weak wave embedded in the flow aloft will bring scattered showers late Friday and early Saturday.  An upper level ridge begins to build over the Central and Southern Rockies Saturday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms decrease, but there may be enough moisture for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s across northeast Colorado. Ridging will be centered over the Central Rockies Sunday and the first half of Monday. Temperatures will continue to warm under the ridge with highs in the 70s to lower 80s across northeast Colorado. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be very low Sunday, but increase Monday as the ridge slides off to the east late in the day. For next Tuesday, models show an upper level trough digging south across the northwest part of the country. Ahead of this, we should see a round of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening.  && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday/... Issued at 547 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Ceilings were a bit higher this afternoon compared to what earlier guidance indicated. Will go with ceilings in the BKN- OVC020-045 range early this evening, then stick with the BKN- OVC010-025 range the rest of the evening and overnight. Will go with PROB30 groups for -SHRA from now into Wednesday afternoon. Also went with a PROB30 group for -TSRA Wednesday later afternoon. Confidence is low for any fog overnight at DIA so visibilities should stay at P6SM. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...66  775 FXUS65 KPUB 192349 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 549 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and wetter weather continues tonight and Wednesday with a few inches of snow across the mountains, particularly north of highway 50. - Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Thursday across most of the southeast plains. - Gradual warming and drying over the weekend but active weather returns next week with the approach of another western U.S. upper low. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 141 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Cooler temperatures and higher humidity have brought a much needed reprieve to the windy and dry conditions of late across the southeast plains today. Meanwhile, gusty southwest winds have returned to the mountains and San Luis Valley where winds have been gusting up to 45 mph at times. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop over the mountains and adjacent plains late this afternoon and evening. Best convective potential will be across the mountains where better surface heating has been occuring. Across the plains, a strong cap will remain in place though as the Great Basin upper trough translates eastward overnight, broad overrunning will combine with shallow easterly upslope flow to produce another round of stratiform rain and snow across the southeast mountains and adjacent plains. Heavier precipitation amounts will favor locations along and north of highway 50. Snow levels will be higher tonight than last night but some light snow accumulations will be possible above roughly 8500 feet. Otherwise, another cloudy night with increasing dew points in southeast surface flow should keep low temperatures above freezing for the southeast plains. Wednesday will start out cloudy and showery for the northern mountains and adjacent plains. This will be followed by partial clearing then another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms developing across the mountains, and spreading into the southeast plains Wednesday evening as forcing from the upper trough glances by to the north. Best thunderstorm chances will be across the southeast mountains and adjacent plains where CAPE of up to 750 J/kg will be in place. The southeast plains look capped initially but could see some broad overrunning precipitation Wednesday night as a southerly low level jet sets up to the east. Showers should pull eastward into KS towards morning. Overall, temperatures will remain cool with highs in the 60s to around 70 across the lower elevations and a mix of 40s and 50s for the mountains, with cooler readings above timberline. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 141 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Thunderstorm chances increase for Thursday with a better chance for strong to severe thunderstorms across the southeast plains in the afternoon and evening. Next upper trough will be dropping southward through the northern U.S. Rockies and swinging by to the north Thursday night. This forcing, along with better surface heating, continued low level moisture advection in southerly return flow, and decent deep layers shears, should trigger a round of scattered thunderstorms, some potentially severe, across the southeast plains. Models push a dry line northeastward off the Raton Mesa with easterly low level flow putting a ribbon of 1500+ J/kg of CAPE along the northern I-25 corridor counties of Pueblo and El Paso counties, eastward across portions of the southeast plains. Hodographs show some decent curvature, especially where surface winds are more easterly, and with deep layer shears around 40 kts, large hail, damaging winds and even an isolated tornado will be possible. There is still a bit of a cap farther east near KLAA in the afternoon, though a low level jet and cooling aloft with the incoming upper trough steepen lapse rates aloft Thursday night suggesting convective maintenance into the overnight across the eastern CO/western KS. Main severe risk would be in the afternoon and evening, especially for the I-25 corridor, but there is a fair chance of rain (50-70%) across much of the southeast plains. Western areas, by contrast, will remain dry and breezy. Temperatures warm around 5 degrees over those of Thursday. Cold front drops southward into the plains on Friday behind the departing upper wave. Some minor cooling and another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected for the southeast mountains and plains. Best CAPE will likely be to the south of CO or near our southern border along the frontal boundary. It remains an active pattern into next week with some minor ridging into Sunday leading to a gradual warming trend through the weekend. Enough moisture will be present for isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The driest day looks to be Sunday. Troughing returns out west for Monday and Tuesday with southerly flow aloft across CO bringing return moisture and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms to the mountains. -KT && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 547 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 KCOS and KPUB: MVFR to IFR conditions are expected for a majority of this TAF period due to lowered clouds and ceiling heights. While slight thinning and lifting of clouds is expected tomorrow afternoon, ceilings will continue to hover around MVFR conditions. In addition, light rain is expected to develop this evening and persist into the overnight hours, which will also bring lowered visibility. The rain is anticipated to dissipate during early to mid morning hours, with dry conditions then returning into the afternoon. With that said though, another round of showers and storms is expected to develop along the higher terrain tomorrow afternoon and push eastward. Some of these showers and storms may impact the TAF sites, bringing quick reductions in visibility and perhaps gusty winds. Otherwise, winds will remain around and less than 10 knots through this TAF period for both sites. KALS: VFR conditions are expected for a majority of this TAF period, with near MVFR conditions developing tonight due to lowered ceiling heights. Otherwise mid level clouds will persist through much of this TAF period. While dry conditions are expected, impacts to the TAF site from a shower this evening can't be ruled out, but the greatest coverage of showers is expected to remain east along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Looking at winds, gusty winds will persist through the evening, and lessen in magnitude overnight. Winds are expected to quickly increase again tomorrow afternoon as diurnal mixing establishes. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...SIMCOE  826 FXUS61 KBGM 192349 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 749 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The threat for severe thunderstorms for today continues to diminish. That being said, still cannot rule out an isolated stronger thunderstorm late later this evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm and humid conditions continues this evening, with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible through about midnight. 2) Following the passage of a cold front tonight and Wednesday morning, much cooler temperatures will return for the rest of the week and into the weekend. 3) Memorial Day weekend continues to look showery and cool, with perhaps slightly drier conditions and warmer temperatures by Memorial Day itself. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Cloud cover from this morning has lingered into this afternoon. As a result, instability is largely lacking. A few isolated showers have developed, but due to this limited instability and lack of forcing, these have not been able to develop into thunderstorms up to this point (as of 2:15PM). A few pulse thunderstorms still could develop at any point this afternoon or early evening, but the overall threat for severe thunderstorms continues to diminish. A more organized line of showers and thunderstorms will likely track eastward through Western NY this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Some of those thunderstorms could be strong to severe, but indications point to this line dissipating as it approaches Central NY and Northeast PA with the loss of daytime heating and the lack of elevated instability to maintain convection overnight. KEY MESSAGE 2... As a cold front pushes eastward through the area on Wednesday, much cooler and drier air will filter in behind it. Dew points will fall from the lower 60s around dawn to the 40s for most of the area by the late afternoon. Temperatures will also gradually drop, or remain steady in the 60s; at least for Central NY. Farther to the south and east (Wyoming Valley-Poconos- Catskills), warmer air may linger longer as the cold front likely doesn't pass through those areas until the afternoon on Wednesday. This also means that some isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible for those areas in the afternoon, but right now it appears any threat for severe thunderstorms should be east of the area/closer to the coast. Following the passage of the cold front, colder air will remain in place through the remainder of the week with highs mainly in the 60s and overnight lows mainly in the 40s. KEY MESSAGE 3... Memorial Day weekend unfortunately continues to look unsettled with showers and cool weather, as moisture advects into the region from the south and an upper level low moving in from the west. The most widespread showers will be on Saturday, which will also be the coolest day with highs only in the 50s for most of the area. Scattered showers will likely linger through at least Sunday. Depending on how quickly the above mentioned upper level low exits the area to the east, Monday/Memorial Day could either be another day of scattered showers, or perhaps a mainly dry day. Either way, Memorial Day should feature a return to near-normal temperatures with highs mainly in the 70s, after several below normal days. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... With the timing of the cold front passage not for another few hours still, confidence is low that any showers or thunderstorms hold together long enough to reach any terminals. SYR and ELM have the best chance if the storms do make it and an amendment will be made if so. CIGs fall to MVFR across CNY behind the front overnight, with a few isolated rain showers or drizzle. ITH and RME have the best shot of rain showers overnight with the help of the terrain but rain cant be ruled out at any of the other CNY terminals. The front does not reach AVP until tomorrow late morning into the early afternoon. There will be some thunderstorms to form along the front in the late morning into early afternoon for AVP so a prob30 has been introduced for rough timing. Dry air mixes down across CNY so terminals in NY will trend towards VFR by the 16Z to 19Z timeframe. Outlook: Wednesday night through Friday...Mainly VFR. Friday night through Sunday...Periods of rain and embedded thunderstorms likely along with associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJG/MJM AVIATION...AJG/JAB  892 FXUS61 KGYX 192351 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 751 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 745 PM Update...Any shower and thunderstorm activity is done for the night leaving behind a warm and fair evening. Previously... Shower and thunderstorm coverage continues to wane for Wednesday. A cold front moving through the forecast area has been trending quicker, limiting Wednesday's high temperatures as well as potential for precipitation. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Temperatures again rise into the upper 80s for much of the coast and interior, but highs are not expected to be as hot as Tuesday. A cold front moves through the area, with a quick cool down for Wednesday night. 2. The second-half of the week will feature cooler temperatures and drier conditions. Unsettled weather is possible this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Unless quenched by a passing shower, temperatures will be slow to lower through the evening. SW breeze continues overnight, and this will keep the low levels mixed, limiting further decoupling. Overnight lows may only fall into the upper 60s to around 70 for a portion of southern NH and through the ME Lakes Region. This offers little overnight recovery after a day that saw many highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Wednesday's high temperature forecast remains on track at being not as warm as Tuesday. This is largely due to the very warm low level airmass shifting east, and a cold front impinging on the forecast area from the NW. Even still, a second consecutive day of highs in the upper 80s to around 90 is expected. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A much cooler airmass arrives behind Wednesday's cold front. 850 mb temperatures will crash to near or below 0C for the northern half of the forecast area, indicating a seasonably strong cold front. High pressure will crest over the region on Friday, allowing for a tranquil end to the week. While it will be rather cool airmass aloft, strong surface heating should support deep mixing up to 850 mb on both Thursday and Friday. Afternoon highs should still recover to the 60s both days in the warm spots, with 50s in the north/mountains. Generally light winds combined with ample sunshine should make for a pleasant two days. By this weekend the upper-air configuration will shift as the high pressure shifts northeast out of the area, and a low pressure begins lifting towards New England from the central U.S. Key uncertainties at this timeframe are the position and strength of the high pressure, and if/when it can suppress precipitation south of Maine/New Hampshire. Model spread remains high at this range leading to uncertain impacts, but a general theme of increasing precipitation chances appears likely as we head deeper into the weekend. Finally, with the placement of low pressure to the southwest and high pressure to the northeast, temperatures may trend cooler with time given cloud cover and onshore flow off the chilly waters. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18z Wednesday...A period of LLWS is expected tonight as surface winds weaken. Chance of fog or low stratus again tonight for coastal terminals, mainly RKD. Gusts increase again Wednesday morning, with the chance of SHRA for southern NH terminals and PWM. Expect a NW wind shift through the day. Outlook... Wednesday Night through Friday Night: VFR expected with daytime gusts 15 to 20 kts. Saturday and Saturday night: Increasing RA chances SW to NE, there remains uncertainty on exact timing. MVFR to IFR cigs may result. && .MARINE... Wave heights will slowly begin to increase through the evening, 3 to 6 ft, mainly towards the ME Midcoast. These are set to linger through the day Wednesday, subsidingas winds shift from a passing cold front. Strong high pressure then moves over the region for late week, resulting in mainly conditions below SCA over the waters. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Air Quality Alert until 10 PM EDT this evening for MEZ023>028. NH...Air Quality Alert until 10 PM EDT this evening for NHZ013-014. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ150-152. Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ153. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barker/Cornwell/Ekster  878 FXUS63 KIWX 192351 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 751 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms are possible today through 9 PM EDT. - Damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and heavy rain are the main threats. Low but non-zero risk for hail and an isolated tornado. - Warm and humid again today with highs in the mid to upper 80s. - Cooler and dry midweek with highs only in the 60s Wednesday and Thursday. - Next chance for rain and a few storms arrive Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front currently positioned over Wisconsin and Illinois will swing eastward and through the local forecast area this evening. Ahead of this front, strong to severe storms will become possible this afternoon and evening. The region is well into the warm sector with temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. The moisture combined with daytime heating supports SBCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg, especially east of the I-69 corridor where cloud cover has been minimal today. Destabilization is beginning to occur with cumulus development evident on satellite. The best chances for strong to severe storms will be 3-9 PM EDT today. The greatest risk area will be along and south of US-24, where a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather is in place. Shear is still expected to be weak given a fairly unidirectional vertical wind profile, but it will be better than the past few days at 20 to 30 kts. With weaker shear, the favored storm mode will be multicell clusters or line segments. Given DCAPE over 1000 J/kg this afternoon and evening and steep low level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km, damaging winds will be the main threat today. Confidence in isolated tornado chances is decreasing due to current low level SRH less than 150 m2/s2, and forecast to decrease today. If one were to develop, the potential is still greatest in NW Ohio, which will have the longest time to heat up and destabilize today as the cold front takes its time moving in from west to east. With PWATs now around 1.5-1.6", even if storm clusters are not severe, they will likely be efficient with rainfall rates in excess of 1"/hr. After the passage of the cold front, the second half of the workweek will be much cooler with highs only in the 60s through Friday. Rain showers will likely be continuing southeast of US-24 on Wednesday morning before drier air moves in. The next chance for rain will then be on Friday afternoon in association with a shortwave coming up from the southwest. We could get a bit of a break on Saturday before a stronger upper trough moves across the region on Sunday. Unsettled weather will also be possible on Memorial Day, especially south of US-30, but model agreement is poor so there is low confidence in forecast specifics. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 750 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Showers and storms that developed ahead of an advancing cold front across northern Indiana have slipped south of the terminals. Low level cold/dry air advection will overspread northern Indiana this evening as a low level anticyclone pushes across the upper MS Valley and northern Great Lakes on Wednesday. Position of this anticyclone will provide northerly flow at terminals on Wednesday with strongest gust potential (at or above 20 knots) at KSBN where low level anticyclone may gain some locally higher intensity from cold Lake Michigan waters. Some VFR clouds of 3-4k feet may develop with frontal inversion tonight. VFR conditions are expected to hold through this forecast valid period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cobb AVIATION...Marsili  901 FXUS64 KHUN 192351 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 651 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1014 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Low to medium chances (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms return tonight. - Medium to high chances (50-90%) of showers and thunderstorms then persist each day from Wednesday through much of the weekend. No severe weather is forecast. && .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 244 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A few showers and thunderstorms have developed along a convergent boundary stretching from Tullahoma south towards Guntersville. These storms remain quite isolated and are not expected to intensify and stay sub-severe through the evening. Expect some additional showers and storms to develop along any outflow boundaries near this convergence boundary. Further west, there is barely a Cu field suggesting some subsidence in this area. Previous Discussion: By tonight, the MCS along a cold front that impacted MO/AR/LA will push eastward into TN/MS. By the time it reaches NW AL a gradual weakening trend is anticipated as it runs into a more stable environment. That being said, the outflow boundary associated with the MCS will at least provide a low chance (20-40%) of showers and storms after midnight in portions of NW AL. No severe storms are forecast given the weak vertical wind shear. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday Night) Issued at 1014 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The cold front associated with the active weather to our west finally makes its way into the TN Valley. As it stalls just to our west, shortwaves are forecast to ripple northeastward along the boundary Wednesday and Thursday. This will result in medium to high chances (50-90%) of showers and thunderstorms. While it is difficult to determine when the precip will occur, the best chances for thunderstorms will be during the afternoon and evening hours. The good news is that there is little to no shear, therefore no severe storms are expected. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 1010 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026After sunrise, w A more summerlike pattern will persist through the Day 4-7 period as 5h ridging builds farther into the southeast U.S. and eastern Gulf of America. Southwesterly flow will persist northwest of the ridge, maintaining a moist flow of air into the Gulf States, particularly in the lower MS Valley where 2.0+ inch PWs will reside. Although, there is a corridor of slightly lower values in the 1.5-1.8 inch range over AL into eastern and middle TN, with higher values farther east across the FL peninsula through GA and the Carolinas. Multiple weak impulses will lift northeast through this period, with medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms each day (diurnally inflated due to heating). High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s, with lows in the 60s. Dew points will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 651 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Not much change in the forecast, with VFR conditions expected with winds becoming light this evening. Not too many clouds (mainly scattered and high clouds) this evening. Expect CIGS around 4000 feet to 5000 feet to develop around 6Z at KMSL and closer to 7Z or 8Z at KHSV. -SHRA will likely push into the KMSL terminal around or just after 11Z and closer to 14Z or 15Z at KHSV. Included a prob30 group for -TSRA between 15Z and 18Z at both terminals. This will likely need to be extended and changed to a tempo or predominant group depending on future model output. During this period, MVFR to IFR CIGS or VSBYS could occur. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GH SHORT TERM....GH LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...KTW  964 FXUS63 KPAH 192353 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 653 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers and thunderstorms will impact the Quad State over the next 24 hours. A few isolated strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon, with damaging winds being the main hazard of concern. - A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through tomorrow morning for portions of the region. Swaths of 1 to 2" are anticipated, along with the potential for localized amounts in excess of 3". Adjustments to the watch location may be needed with time. - After a relative lull in rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday, an unsettled pattern is shaping up Friday through the holiday weekend and potentially beyond. There is a high probability (80-95% chance) of most of the region observing at least 2" of rain through next Tuesday, with even some potential at amounts in excess of 4" (20-40% chance). - Temperatures will average 5 to 10 degrees below normal tomorrow and Thursday (low to mid 70s). While some moderation is expected through the holiday weekend (upper 70s to lower 80s), we will still average slightly below normal through much of the period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 134 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front is draped from the Great Lakes southwestward across IL/MO and into eastern OK early this afternoon. South-southwesterly flow ahead of the boundary has led to an influx of low level moisture into our region with dewpoints into the lower 70s. The morning complex across Missouri fizzled out and has left behind quite a bit of clearing east of the Mississippi River. Some isolated convection has already popped up from the MO bootheel into western KY. Additional activity should continue to fire up through the afternoon aided by upwards of 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Deep layer shear isn't very impressive though, struggling to reach even 25-30 kts of 0-6 km shear. Mid level lapse rates are generally 6C or below as well. However, low level lapse rates are rather steep combined with ample low level moisture that likely will be enough to support at least pulse severe storms this afternoon. Damaging winds appear to be the greatest concern, but can't rule out some hail with a few of the stronger cores. Majority of our region (except southern two tiers of counties) remain in a slight risk from SPC. A disturbance aloft will pivot across the lower Ohio Valley tonight which should provide additional forcing as the front makes passage to support more widespread showers and storms. There is some concern for training convection that may lead to swaths of heavy rainfall in excess of 2", and localized upwards of 3". Placement amongst the CAMs is varied, with some suggesting heaviest amounts further south across more of west KY. In coordination with neighboring offices, have decided to issue a Flash Flood Watch for portions of our region. For now have confined it to areas that received 1-2", localized 3", over the past 24 hours as these areas are more susceptible to additional heavy rain. FFG is generally only 1.5" per hour in the watch area. Will monitor trends though as adjustments to the watch are possible, with southward expansion seeming to be the most likely. Surface high pressure across the Great Lakes will filter in drier air into our region Wednesday night into Thursday as the frontal boundary sinks south of our cwa. Can't rule out some lingering activity in our south during this time though. Another shortwave across the Southern Plains will induce a surface low to develop and push the front back north into our area Thursday night into Friday. This will lead to additional waves of showers and storms spreading across the region. The overall pattern through the holiday weekend looks quite unsettled with daily chances continuing. Upper flow continues to be southwesterly helping to usher in ample low level moisture into our area. Temperatures will be held in check thanks to the clouds and precip around, but humidity levels will remain high as dewpoints will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Guidance suggests the wet pattern looks to continue into next week as additional disturbances move through. LREF has an 80-95% chance at receiving at least 2" through next Tuesday, with a 25-40% chance at 4". The ECMWF and GFS both have an expensive area of 5+ inches over the next 9 days. There is a chance they are overdone a bit, and when in drought it's hard to get out, but the trends certainly are in favor of some beneficial rains through the end of the month. Just hopefully we don't get too much too quick, which is a distinct possibility, which could result in increasing flooding concerns. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 652 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Scattered TSRA may develop later this evening along the cold front as it passes from 02Z at KMVN to 09Z at KPAH and KOWB. A wave on the front may muddle wind directions after 06Z and hold up its progress a bit. This will also provide another chance of TSRA. Ceilings will drop to MVFR levels shortly behind the front and will eventually drop to IFR levels overnight. IFR ceilings are likely to stay all day. Light rain/drizzle could result in LIFR conditions through the day at KPAH and the afternoon at KOWB, while MVFR visibilities in light rain will prevail farther north and west through most of the day. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for ILZ083-085>094. MO...None. IN...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for KYZ014-018. && $$ DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION...DRS  025 FXUS63 KDTX 192354 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 754 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and cool Wednesday through Friday morning. - Rain returns by Friday evening and continues into Saturday. && .AVIATION... Low level cold advection between 2.5 and 5.0 kft agl is expected to result in saturation and VFR stratus this evening. Depth of the saturation may be great enought to result in light rain shower activity or drizzle this evening, although confidence in coverage is low. Abrupt dry air advection with midlevel isentropic downglide is then expected to push through all of the area after 09z. Shallow cold front and density discontinuity will push southward at KMBS around 03z and through the Detroit taf sites around 10z Wednesday morning. Boundary layer cloud will be possible with diurnal heating late morning. D21/DTW Convection...Low probability for additional thunderstorm activity this evening. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for thunderstorms 20-23Z this evening. * High for ceilings at or below 5000 ft tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 DISCUSSION... Pressure fields clearly show the prefrontal trough tracking through western sections of the CWA. This trough will serve as the focus for continued convection. Southwest gradient winds have been gusting 30 to 40 mph this afternoon, indicative of some decent wind fields. With temperatures reaching the mid-80s and dew points in the mid-to- upper 60s, MLCAPEs have reached 1500+ J/kg south of M-59. Per latest SPC mesoscale analysis and DTW ACARS data, the CIN/cap has eroded completely. Thus, further shower and thunderstorm development is expected through the rest of the afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for the eastern two-thirds of the CWA until 7 PM, but there is a good chance it may be canceled earlier. Localized/scattered damaging wind gusts should be the dominant hazard, given the mainly unidirectional low-level flow and good downdraft capes. However, because of the earlier start to activity and weak convergence along the prefrontal trough, it may be tough to sustain updrafts to support organized severe storms (barring any interactions with outflow boundaries). The actual cold front still needs to move through during the evening hours, and additional storms will be possible with any leftover instability. However, expect this prefrontal activity to deplete much of the fuel for the main front. Upper-level confluent flow and sprawling high pressure (1032 MB) will be in place tomorrow through Friday morning over the Great Lakes region, supporting dry and cool weather. Rain showers will return by Friday evening, however. Longwave troughing over the Rockies will capture and send a subtropical shortwave and moisture-laden warm front into southern Lower Michigan by Friday night. 850 MB dew points are progged to reach into the lower teens (Celsius) on Saturday. EPS probabilities for 24-hour rainfall exceeding half an inch are in the 60-70 percent range for the bulk of southeast Michigan. MARINE... Small Craft Advisories remain in place into this evening as southwest winds gust around 25 knots along the land/marine interface. The development of strong to severe thunderstorms is increasingly likely this afternoon into the evening, favored across southern Lake Huron and locations south. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect until 7PM EDT. Wind gusts aoa 45 knots will be the primary hazard for severe weather development. Passage of the cold front will end the severe weather threat, veering winds from the southwest to northwest through the evening. High pressure builds behind the front, bringing lighter winds through the midweek period. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422- 441>443. Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LCZ460. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ444. && $$ AVIATION.....CB DISCUSSION...SF MARINE.......SF You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  119 FXUS61 KRNK 192356 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 756 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated. Timing of the arrival of precipitation is slightly later. Storms will begin to develop mid afternoon, right along the Blue Ridge. However, more scattered coverage of showers/storms happens tomorrow evening for the mountains, as the front moves in and stalls over the area. An Air Quality Alert has been issued for Caswell, Rockingham, and Stokes Counties in NC through 12AM Thursday due to code orange for ground level ozone. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1: A heat wave continues into tomorrow with record- breaking to near record-breaking heat possible through tomorrow. Cooler weather is expected late week into Memorial Day weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple opportunities for precipitation through the weekend beginning with a cold front tomorrow. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A heat wave continues with record-breaking heat possible through Wednesday. Cooler weather late week into Memorial Day weekend. Southerly flow will persist across the Eastern CONUS through tomorrow due to a large Bermuda high in the western Atlantic. 500mb heights will continue to remain elevated tomorrow ahead of the cold front. With the cold front and associated showers/thunderstorms not expected to reach the area until late in the afternoon and evening, high temperatures are forecast to reach the mid to upper 90s east of the Blue Ridge, and mid to upper 80s west of the Blue Ridge. With more scattered cu and upper level cirrus from showers and thunderstorms, temperatures are expected to be a little lower tomorrow compared to today. Although heat indices will not be dangerously high during this heat wave, it has been nearly a year since temperatures have been over 90 degrees for several days in a row. Stay hydrated, limit outdoor activity, and wear light and loose fitted clothing to help reduce the risk of heat illnesses. Relief from the heat arrives by Thursday, once the cold front moves past the area, with much cooler weather and highs in the 60s/70s the remainder of the work week and into the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple opportunities for precipitation through the weekend beginning with a cold front on Wednesday. On Wednesday, a cold front is expected to approach the region from the northwest as an upper level trough and associated surface low pressure system slide east through southern Quebec and Ontario. The lagging cold front looks to provide some forcing for shower and thunderstorm activity, with modest deep layer shear in the 20-30 knot range Wednesday afternoon. This amount of deep layer shear combined with instability values in the 500-1000 J/Kg will likely lead to some multicellular clusters of thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening across the region. With these shear and instability values, some hail and damaging wind gusts can't be ruled out across the area. With this potential, a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) remains in place to account for severe weather potential across portions of Virginia on Wednesday afternoon/evening. By Thursday, the cold front looks to become quasi-stationary across Virginia and the Tennessee valley. As this occurs, high pressure looks to push across the Great Lakes region leading to east/northeast flow across the forecast area. This will lead to some isentropic ascent across the area as warm moist air from the south rides up over this cool but shallow pocket of air at the surface. With stable air at the surface, the threat for severe weather looks to be minimal; however, shower activity looks very likely with rain forecast throughout the day areawide. A few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out, with elevated instability on the order of 100-500 J/Kg forecast between the 700-500mb layer from CAM guidance like the HRRR and NAMNEST. Wedging looks to persist on Friday as the surface high pressure over the Great Lakes looks to slide northeast towards the Quebec/Ontario border. This will maintain wedging areawide as a surface low develops across the central Mississippi valley. With upper level ridging and associated surface high pressure maintaining dominance over the western Atlantic, continued warm moist air is expected to be advected north into the region through the weekend. A warm front associated with the aforementioned surface low pressure system looks to push north through the weekend; however, with the high pressure over eastern Canada forecast to settle into the Northeast by the weekend, wedging does not look to erode until possibly early next week. With the aforementioned moisture advecting north along this wedge, light to moderate rainfall associated with isentropic lift looks to persist through the holiday weekend and into early next week. While this may ruin outdoor holiday weekend plans, it will hopefully bring much needed rainfall to the region at a steady enough rate to provide some agricultural and drought relief to the area. Although repeated rainfall looks to occur into early next week, widespread convectively enhanced rainfall is not looking very likely, therefore flooding potential remains very localized. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Area-wide VFR flight conditions continue this evening as high pressure remains dominant. The few isolated showers/storms that popped up earlier have now dissipated, and no rain is expected overnight and through mid-afternoon Wednesday. VFR will persist at all terminals until then, though fog may briefly form at LWB between 10-12z. It is not expected to be dense if it does form, likely only causing MVFR. For Wednesday, near calm overnight winds increase to around 5-10 knots in the afternoon from the south/southwest. Between 20-21z, scattered storms will begin to develop along the Blue Ridge and points west, which would bring sub-VFR to any terminal they impact. Coverage increases near the end of the TAF period tomorrow evening, though storms will remain scattered as a cold front pushes into the area. Any storm could be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds, though severe weather would be isolated to the strongest storms. DAN will remain well southeast of the convection, keeping VFR through the end of the TAF period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Scattered showers/storms will continue for Wednesday night, with sub-VFR likely. Only DAN will likely avoid the rain until Thursday. Rain showers and thunderstorm chances continue through the end of the week as the front slows down over the Mid Atlantic, which will lead to periods of sub- VFR at all terminals each day through the weekend. This typical summertime pattern with daily chances of afternoon showers/storms will persist into next week. Note: Bluefield (KBLF) ASOS is currently experiencing a technical outage due to a major power supply failure. Replacement parts have been ordered. ETA of repair is currently unknown. AMD NOT SKED is being appended to its TAF. && .CLIMATE... Record-breaking heat is possible for Wednesday. Here are the current records and our current forecast. Wednesday, May 20, 2026 Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Forecast High Roanoke 98 in 1934 70 in 1998 93 Lynchburg 96 in 1941 68 in 1902 94 Danville 97 in 1996 68 in 2018 96 Bluefield 87 in 1996 66 in 1996 83 Blacksburg 90 in 1934 66 in 1893 88 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Wednesday night for NCZ004>006. WV...None. && $$DISCUSSION...EB AVIATION...AS/JCB CLIMATE...RCS  139 FXUS63 KILX 192356 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 656 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms may develop ahead of an advancing cold front this afternoon into early evening, with a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms near and south of Interstate 70. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall are the main hazards. - Drier and cooler weather returns briefly for midweek. The pattern turns unsettled once again late this week into the weekend with several opportunities for showers and scattered storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 109 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Midday surface analysis shows a ~1004 mb low north of the Great Lakes Region in southeast Ontario with a trailing cold front stretched from northern Michigan through the middle Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, a few remnant outflow boundaries from overnight convection are noted with the most predominant one stretched from roughly Robinson to Lawrenceville as of 1 pm. This boundary is moving steadily to the east and will likely be the main focus for scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon into evening. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s out ahead of the front/outflow boundary have allowed SBCAPE to become moderately strong. More favorable deep layer shear will be displaced closer to the cold front, though high PWATs and steep low-level lapse rates may be enough to support a few damaging wind gusts. The 12Z CAMs have shown a shift eastward with storm activity, with the focus being southeast of a Terre Haute to Flora line through early evening. The 19.12Z HREF 24 hour LPMM shows localized pockets of 1- 2"+ of rain occuring with storms, which looks to be south and east of the hardest hit rain areas from yesterday. The cold front will work through the area this evening, reaching the Ohio Valley around midnight. Much of the precipitation should come to an end as the front moves through later this evening. However, a shortwave trough lifting from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley will nudge the front back northward overnight and spread light shower and isolated thunder chances back into southeast parts of the state through Wednesday morning. High pressure ridging will increase large-scale subsidence and ultimately push the front back south of here, putting an end to the precipitation by Wednesday afternoon. High pressure will shield us briefly from precipitation, with cooler and drier conditions expected through much of Thursday. A western trough will work into the central US and spawn several shortwaves into the Midwest states late this week through the weekend, bringing the return of scattered precipitation chances. Temperatures and moisture will steadily increase through the weekend and may support the development of thunderstorms at times. However, overall weak forcing should largely mitigate any chances for severe weather through early next week. Machine learning probabilities support this by keeping any chances for severe weather south of here. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 656 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR ceilings have spread across the central Illinois terminals early this evening in the wake of a departing cold front. HRRR/RAP forecasts suggest the ceilings will gradually rise to low VFR by mid to late evening: however, a wave of low pressure riding along the frontal boundary will spread low clouds and perhaps a few light showers as far north as the I-72 corridor overnight into early Wednesday morning. Have therefore re-introduced MVFR at KDEC/KCMI between 08z/09z and 17z/18z. After that, ceilings will gradually scatter from west to east during the afternoon. Winds will initially be NW at 10-15kt, but will veer to N toward midnight, then to NE during the day Wednesday. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES... DISCUSSION...NMA AVIATION...Barnes  135 FXUS64 KMOB 192356 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 656 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 656 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - A HIGH risk of rip currents is in effect for all area beaches today. - Rain chances increase by mid to late next week, especially over the western half of the forecast area. - Localized patchy dense fog will be possible again late tonight into Wednesday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 656 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The current forecast remains on track with no precipitation occurring overnight, but there will be an increase in low status along with patchy fog. Current temperatures in the lower to middle 80s will settle around 70 degrees by daybreak Wednesday. /22 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 148 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The area will remain in southwest flow aloft between a ridge off the southeast coast and a trough over the western states. This will keep the highest rain chances mainly west of the area today. Starting on Wednesday, the ridge slowly weakens and shifts southeast. This will allow for the higher chances of rain to move into the area with the highest chances through Friday across southeast Mississippi. Rain chances remain elevated through the weekend as a series of shortwaves continue to round the northern edge of the upper level ridge. Patchy dense fog will be possible each night. Any fog will develop late into the overnight hours before lifting fairly quickly after sunrise. Temperatures will be near to just above normal through the weekend. Highs will generally be in the mid and upper 80s with a few areas around 90 each day. Lows will be in the upper 60s and low 70s. /13 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 656 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the evening hours followed by low clouds developing around 08Z and spreading in coverage late tonight into early Wednesday morning. A mix of MVFR and IFR ceilings are expected, along with some patchy fog. The greatest potential for localized dense fog is along and east of I-65. The low ceilings and fog will dissipate shortly after sunrise. Southeasterly winds of around 5-10 knots will become more light and variable tonight. /22 && && .MARINE... Issued at 109 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 71 88 71 86 / 0 10 0 20 Pensacola 72 86 73 85 / 0 10 0 10 Destin 72 84 72 84 / 0 10 0 0 Evergreen 69 90 68 90 / 10 30 10 10 Waynesboro 71 90 70 87 / 10 30 20 30 Camden 71 89 69 87 / 10 20 20 20 Crestview 68 91 68 91 / 0 30 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  264 FXUS61 KCAR 192359 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 759 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - 7:59PM UPDATE...Made changes for the 00z TAFs, see the aviation section below. The atmosphere remains very capped this evening and very little activity remains with no storms. A cold front is approach the Montreal Quebec area and that will bring the potential for some showers tonight and perhaps a Thunderstorm to the North Woods. Have made a significant overall to POPs and QPF for tonight into tomorrow. Additionally, have increased winds for tomorrow with significant boundary layer mixing up to 800mb therefore changed the Key Messages to reflect tomorrow being warm, breezy and low RHs for potential fire weather concerns. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Gusty westerly winds, combined with very warm and mostly dry conditions will lead to some fire weather concerns on Wednesday despite a few showers across the region. 2) Below average temperatures are expected Thursday through Saturday night. Near freezing temperatures are possible early Friday and Saturday mornings across the north, which may require actions to protect vulnerable plants. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Gusty westerly winds, combined with very warm and mostly dry conditions will lead to some fire weather concerns on Wednesday despite a few showers across the region. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A cold front will approach from the northwest tomorrow and cross the region. Prior to its arrival in the late afternoon we will remain in the warm sector. Winds shift westerly tomorrow as the LLJ rapidly increases. Hi-res modeling is in fairly good agreement that the boundary layer by late morning will mix up to 825-800mb with winds increasing aloft to near 40kt which we will mix some of this down. Classic inverted "V" signature indicating how dry the surface will be despite the ongoing green up. There is some concerns for fire weather especially wherever fine fuels may still be receptive. Air temperatures will climb into the upper 70s to low 80s across the north, mid to upper 80s for Southern Aroostook County to the Downeast including Bangor Region. Only cool spots in the 60-70s will be right along the Downeast shoreline. Westerly winds 10-20mph gusting 30-35mph with the potential of gusts to 40mph especially in the higher terrain. Afternoon relative humidities will dip down into the 32-38 percent range. Cannot rule out a few isolated to scattered showers but many locations will remain dry. KEY MESSAGE 2...Below average temperatures are expected Thursday through Saturday night. Near freezing temperatures are possible early Friday and Saturday mornings across the north, which may require actions to protect vulnerable plants. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The frost/freeze program will expand across much of the rest of northern and eastern Maine on Thursday except across the North Woods and Saint John Valley, where it begins on June 1. Strong cold air advection is expected Thursday behind a cold front, resulting in highs only in the 50s and lower 60s, warmest along the coast. Thursday night, a modest low level jet looks to develop overhead, likely keeping unsheltered spots from decoupling, and clouds should be on the increase throughout the night as well. Drier air with dew points in the 20s and lower 30s may also prevent frost formation. Even without frost, some damage to plants is possible in these conditions with temperatures falling into the lower and mid 30s in northern areas as high pressure noses in from the Great Lakes. By Friday night the surface ridge of high pressure extends over the area from central Quebec. This will lead to lighter winds and a better chance of decoupling over more areas, especially the lower elevations of northern Maine. Lows Friday night and Saturday morning are forecast in the 30s to mid 40s, but may end up being lower in ideal radiational cooling conditions. Dew points will also be higher in the upper 20s to mid 30s, leading to more frost formation potential across northern zones. Below average temperatures will continue for Saturday and Saturday night, but a moderation is expected as high pressure moves over and eventually east of the area. Our next chance of precipitation will be early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 00z TAF UPDATE Tonight: An increasing W LLJ will move over the region overnight. With surface winds remaining light and primarily decoupled, widespread LLWS is expected at all terms. LLWS will generally begin between 03Z-06Z for KCAR, KPQI, KHUL, KFVE and between 06Z-09Z for KBGR, KBHB. KFVE will hold onto IFR/LIFR cigs (OVC005-007) with BR and VCSH through the night. KCAR, KPQI, and KHUL will gradually drop from VFR to MVFR/IFR (BKN015-025) between 02Z and 06Z with cigs/BR. KBGR and KBHB will remain predominantly VFR, though a brief window of BCFG is possible at KBHB around 05Z. Wednesday: LLWS threat will end as the stronger winds aloft mix down to the surface. Sfc winds W/NW 10-15 kt gusting 20 to 30 kt through the afternoon. All terms will return to solid VFR conditions by 12Z-15Z, lasting through the remainder of the TAF period. Previous Discussion... Wednesday night to Thursday: VFR. NW winds 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts. Thursday night: VFR. WNW winds 5-10 kts. Friday: VFR. NW winds NW winds 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts. Friday night to Saturday: VFR with light and variable winds, increasing to around 5-10 kts during the day. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory for outer waters in effect for tonight into Wednesday, with seas around 5ft and some wind gusts to 25kts possible. Chance for passing rain this afternoon, and chance for rain on Wednesday. SW winds today into Wednesday. Winds and seas are likely to remain below SCA criteria Wednesday night through early next week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Air Quality Alert until 10 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051. && $$ DISCUSSION...TF/PM/JS AVIATION...TF/PM/JS  206 FXUS66 KSGX 192357 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 457 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS... High temperatures for the mountains and deserts will warm through Thursday. High temperatures for the coast and valleys will warm several more degrees today, then slowly cool into next weekend. Night and morning coastal low clouds will return and increase in coverage during the middle of the week, then spread farther into the inland valleys by next weekend. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... New Aviation and Marine Discussion... As of 2:00 PM PDT, satellite depicts mostly clear skies with an isolated patch of cirrus clouds. Temperatures are running 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday inland, reaching into the mid-to-upper 80s through the Inland Empire and the upper 70s/low 80s for inland areas of San Diego and Orange Counties. Most of the lowlands are experiencing a typical May sea breeze. The San Diego to Tonopah pressure gradient has remained constant at around -5 mbs, yielding to offshore flow (N/NE winds) and lower humidity through most of the Inland Empire and in the mountains. As a result, relative humidities are 10-20% in the mountains and 15-30% through the Inland Empire. The sea breeze boundary will push eastward through the foothills and mountains this afternoon, increasing humidities this evening through the boundary layer - below 3000-400 feet elevation. This morning's sounding showed a marine layer thickness of around 2500 feet deep, and with similar 700-mb heights, the marine layer should settle to a similar depth tonight, where humidities will mostly recover above 50% overnight (80% closer to the coast). Clouds will struggle to develop, however, and should be restricted to coastal San Diego County should any clouds develop (65-75% chance). While 500-mb heights don't change much, the weak surface high pressure in the Great Basin creating offshore flow will continue to move eastward. Temperatures will warm in the deserts through Thursday, which will increase the onshore pressure gradient and enhance the sea breeze. The marine layer will gradually deepen each day, with higher chances for more broad coverage into the Inland Empire Thursday morning. While there isn't a strong temperature trend this week, temperatures peak Wednesday for inland areas (mid-80s - low 90s) and Thursday through the low deserts (approaching 100 degrees). && .LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)... Temperatures in the mountains and deserts look to remain relatively constant through next Monday. At the coast and through the inland valleys, temperatures look to gradually decrease a degree or two each day through Sunday, with perhaps a steeper decrease in temperatures Monday onward, contingent upon a trough digging deep from the Pacific Northwest into Southern California. Based on WPC 500-mb clusters, about 30% of ensemble runs are converging on this solution, while others build a ridge to the northwest, though keeping heights above Southern California around normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION... 192355Z...Mostly clear skies expected for most of the area through the TAF period with the exception to southern coastal San Diego, up to 20 miles inland. Low clouds are expected to move inland 09-10Z, increasing in coverage through 14-15Z with bases around 1000-2000ft MSL. Low clouds are expected to clear after 16-17Z. Offshore winds continue with the strongest gusts 20-25 kts through mountain passes and foothills. These winds will diminish in the next few hours. && .MARINE... West-northwest winds are gusting near 20 kts over outer coastal waters and will continue untilthis evening. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday morning. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Westerink AVIATION/MARINE...Villafane