656 FXUS63 KJKL 192000 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 400 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and mainly dry weather will persist through this afternoon. - Showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast later today and tonight, with active weather expected to continue through the upcoming holiday weekend. - The switch to an active and wetter pattern yields temperatures closer to normal readings, and is likely to provide at least temporary relief from developing and ongoing drought conditions. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 400 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 One more hot and mostly sunny afternoon is underway across eastern Kentucky. Satellite imagery shows an extensive cumulus field across the area and radar shows some spotty convection near and west of the Pottsville Escarpment. Thermometers are also near record territory for this date, ranging in the mid 80s for most. The latest weather map shows the high pressure responsible for the hot and dry weather of recent days now departing off the East Coast, though still dominating over the southeast US. Meanwhile, an ~1004 mb surface low is situated northeast of Lake Superior while a cold front extends southward from the low across the Ozarks and Southern Plains. Aloft, an around 588 dam ridge remains over much of the Southeast CONUS. Upstream, a 500 hPa trough is passing through Central Canada and brushing the northern Plains while a trailing shortwave is situated over the Great Basin. Vorticity energy is streaming northeastward from the Western Gulf area and across the mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys in the southwest flow between these troughs and the Southeastern ridge. The northern stream trough will flatten and lift into eastern Canada through the short-term period along with the remnant Great Basin shortwave trailing as the ridging only slowly subsides over the Southeast CONUS. Meanwhile, the surface low will lift northeast toward Labrador while deepening ~990 mb. The low's trailing cold front will only slowly cross the Lower Ohio River late tonight and sag across eastern Kentucky during the day on Wednesday. Initially, upper level vort energy ejecting northeast from the Western Gulf coast should aid in the development of diurnally- driven scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening, primarily near and west of the Pottsville Escarpment though an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out further east. Renewed convective activity may impact locations near and north of I-64 Wednesday morning predawn as the boundary approaches our area. Ahead of this boundary, the 19/12z HREF shows 1000 to 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE building by afternoon with 20 to 30 kts of surface-500 hPa shear south of I-64 by Wednesday midday to afternoon. This may be sufficient for some cell organization, especially for convection that develops discretely or in clusters out ahead of the cold frontal boundary. SPC has included most of the area under a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Wednesday for an isolated hail or damaging wind threat. Cloud layer winds will tend to force cells that develop along the actual cold front to move back atop a more stable post-frontal environment, limiting overall extent and vigor of convection along the true surface boundary. While PWATs ahead of the boundary will rise to near or over 1.50 inches, progressive cell movement and dry antecedent conditions (Moderate to Extreme Drought) should preclude any notable hydro concerns outside any urban/poor drainage areas that get a quick inch or two of rain under the heaviest activity. For Wednesday night, shower activity, mainly light, is likely to linger as disturbances aloft continue to drift over the forecast area. In sensible terms, spotty shower and thunderstorm activity will continue through mid-evening, diminishing after sunset. Showers may develop again toward morning, especially near and north of I-64 and closer to central Kentucky. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the lower to middle 60s. Additional shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to spread in from the northwest on Wednesday with highs ranging in the upper 70s northwest of I-64 to the upper 80s in the deepest valleys near the KY-VA border. Showers linger Wednesday night while temperatures settle back into the lower 50s north of I-64 to the mid 60s near the KY- TN border. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 330 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 The forecast period begins with the region situated on the backside of a departing cold front. Although the boundary will be sagging southward, scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible across the area. Given marginal instability and weak kinematic profiles, severe weather is not anticipated, and activity should remain largely garden-variety. Ongoing precipitation and cloud cover will suppress daytime heating, keeping afternoon highs on the cooler side. Temperatures are forecast to reach the lower 70s across the northern portions of the area, while areas along the Tennessee border should top out in the upper 70s. Overnight lows for Thursday into Friday morning will remain mild as a quasi-stationary boundary begins to lift northward as a warm front, initiating a warming trend. This warm front will cross the region on Friday, serving as the catalyst for widespread showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. While marginal thermodynamic indices will once again favor pulse-type, non-severe convection, the primary hazard shifts toward heavy rainfall and high precipitation efficiency. This wet pattern will persist through the weekend as precipitable water values climb well above 1.50 inches within a deep moisture profile characterized by a skinny CAPE distribution. Furthermore, ECMWF Shift of Tails (SoT) values are progged to approach 0.8 on Friday before exceeding 0.8 Sunday into Monday. For context, a SoT greater than 0.8 is highly indicative of an unusual event relative to the climatological norm. As Fridays synoptic evolution locks the region into a pattern supportive of repeated training rounds of convection, this event may ultimately be classified as climatologically anomalous. An analysis of the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble systems reveals strong model consensus, with nearly all Total QPF members indicating that rainfall totals upwards of 3.00 inches are possible through Monday morning. The current deterministic forecast package projects widespread QPF amounts ranging from 2.00 inches in the Lake Cumberland area to 2.75 inches across northeastern portions of the forecast area. Locations along the West Virginia and Virginia borders will likely see lower totals due to local downsloping effects. Once the stalled boundary finally shifts eastward on Monday, another surface low is progged to develop and track northeastward into the area. This system will bring a secondary round of showers and storms, keeping the region wet through the remainder of the forecast period. As a side note, since the area is dry, heavy rainfall on top of moisture starved ground could create runoff issues leading to potential hydrologic issues. Ultimately, this period will highlight a distinct regime shift away from the persistent dry pattern observed over the last few weeks toward a much wetter synoptic setup. While the expected heavy rainfall will help reduce the current precipitation deficit, overall totals will still track below normal for this time of year. Due to persistent cloud cover and rain, daytime highs will remain capped in the upper 70s to lower 80s, while overnight lows drop into the lower to middle 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the daytime hours, but will deteriorate gradually from the northwest through the period with the approach of a cold front. Look for an extensive cumulus field this afternoon with PROB30 groups to account for the low potential of diurnally driven shower activity. Additional probabilities are noted later tonight and on Wednesday as the cold front nears. Winds will be the south to southwest at 6 to 13 kts again with some gusts of 15 to 20 kts for this afternoon, highest at KSYM and KIOB. These winds will diminish near sunset, but more exposed sites will see a variable to southerly wind around 5 kts or so. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEERTSON LONG TERM...VORST AVIATION...GEERTSON  899 FXUS63 KJKL 192003 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 403 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and mainly dry weather will persist through this evening. - Shower and thunderstorms chances will become more prevalent tonight and Wednesday, continuing through the upcoming holiday weekend. - The switch to an active and wetter pattern yields temperatures closer to normal readings, and is likely to provide at least temporary relief from developing and ongoing drought conditions. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 400 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 One more hot and mostly sunny afternoon is underway across eastern Kentucky. Satellite imagery shows an extensive cumulus field across the area and radar shows some spotty convection near and west of the Pottsville Escarpment. Thermometers are also near record territory for this date, ranging in the mid 80s for most. The latest weather map shows the high pressure responsible for the hot and dry weather of recent days now departing off the East Coast, though still dominating over the southeast US. Meanwhile, an ~1004 mb surface low is situated northeast of Lake Superior while a cold front extends southward from the low across the Ozarks and Southern Plains. Aloft, an around 588 dam ridge remains over much of the Southeast CONUS. Upstream, a 500 hPa trough is passing through Central Canada and brushing the northern Plains while a trailing shortwave is situated over the Great Basin. Vorticity energy is streaming northeastward from the Western Gulf area and across the mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys in the southwest flow between these troughs and the Southeastern ridge. The northern stream trough will flatten and lift into eastern Canada through the short-term period along with the remnant Great Basin shortwave trailing as the ridging only slowly subsides over the Southeast CONUS. Meanwhile, the surface low will lift northeast toward Labrador while deepening ~990 mb. The low's trailing cold front will only slowly cross the Lower Ohio River late tonight and sag across eastern Kentucky during the day on Wednesday. Initially, upper level vort energy ejecting northeast from the Western Gulf coast should aid in the development of diurnally- driven scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening, primarily near and west of the Pottsville Escarpment though an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out further east. Renewed convective activity may impact locations near and north of I-64 Wednesday morning predawn as the boundary approaches our area. Ahead of this boundary, the 19/12z HREF shows 1000 to 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE building by afternoon with 20 to 30 kts of surface-500 hPa shear south of I-64 by Wednesday midday to afternoon. This may be sufficient for some cell organization, especially for convection that develops discretely or in clusters out ahead of the cold frontal boundary. SPC has included most of the area under a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Wednesday for an isolated hail or damaging wind threat. Cloud layer winds will tend to force cells that develop along the actual cold front to move back atop a more stable post-frontal environment, limiting overall extent and vigor of convection along the true surface boundary. While PWATs ahead of the boundary will rise to near or over 1.50 inches, progressive cell movement and dry antecedent conditions (Moderate to Extreme Drought) should preclude any notable hydro concerns outside any urban/poor drainage areas that get a quick inch or two of rain under the heaviest activity. For Wednesday night, shower activity, mainly light, is likely to linger as disturbances aloft continue to drift over the forecast area. In sensible terms, spotty shower and thunderstorm activity will continue through mid-evening, diminishing after sunset. Showers may develop again toward morning, especially near and north of I-64 and closer to central Kentucky. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the lower to middle 60s. Additional shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to spread in from the northwest on Wednesday with highs ranging in the upper 70s northwest of I-64 to the upper 80s in the deepest valleys near the KY-VA border. Showers linger Wednesday night while temperatures settle back into the lower 50s north of I-64 to the mid 60s near the KY- TN border. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 330 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 The forecast period begins with the region situated on the backside of a departing cold front. Although the boundary will be sagging southward, scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible across the area. Given marginal instability and weak kinematic profiles, severe weather is not anticipated, and activity should remain largely garden-variety. Ongoing precipitation and cloud cover will suppress daytime heating, keeping afternoon highs on the cooler side. Temperatures are forecast to reach the lower 70s across the northern portions of the area, while areas along the Tennessee border should top out in the upper 70s. Overnight lows for Thursday into Friday morning will remain mild as a quasi-stationary boundary begins to lift northward as a warm front, initiating a warming trend. This warm front will cross the region on Friday, serving as the catalyst for widespread showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. While marginal thermodynamic indices will once again favor pulse-type, non-severe convection, the primary hazard shifts toward heavy rainfall and high precipitation efficiency. This wet pattern will persist through the weekend as precipitable water values climb well above 1.50 inches within a deep moisture profile characterized by a skinny CAPE distribution. Furthermore, ECMWF Shift of Tails (SoT) values are progged to approach 0.8 on Friday before exceeding 0.8 Sunday into Monday. For context, a SoT greater than 0.8 is highly indicative of an unusual event relative to the climatological norm. As Fridays synoptic evolution locks the region into a pattern supportive of repeated training rounds of convection, this event may ultimately be classified as climatologically anomalous. An analysis of the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble systems reveals strong model consensus, with nearly all Total QPF members indicating that rainfall totals upwards of 3.00 inches are possible through Monday morning. The current deterministic forecast package projects widespread QPF amounts ranging from 2.00 inches in the Lake Cumberland area to 2.75 inches across northeastern portions of the forecast area. Locations along the West Virginia and Virginia borders will likely see lower totals due to local downsloping effects. Once the stalled boundary finally shifts eastward on Monday, another surface low is progged to develop and track northeastward into the area. This system will bring a secondary round of showers and storms, keeping the region wet through the remainder of the forecast period. As a side note, since the area is dry, heavy rainfall on top of moisture starved ground could create runoff issues leading to potential hydrologic issues. Ultimately, this period will highlight a distinct regime shift away from the persistent dry pattern observed over the last few weeks toward a much wetter synoptic setup. While the expected heavy rainfall will help reduce the current precipitation deficit, overall totals will still track below normal for this time of year. Due to persistent cloud cover and rain, daytime highs will remain capped in the upper 70s to lower 80s, while overnight lows drop into the lower to middle 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the daytime hours, but will deteriorate gradually from the northwest through the period with the approach of a cold front. Look for an extensive cumulus field this afternoon with PROB30 groups to account for the low potential of diurnally driven shower activity. Additional probabilities are noted later tonight and on Wednesday as the cold front nears. Winds will be the south to southwest at 6 to 13 kts again with some gusts of 15 to 20 kts for this afternoon, highest at KSYM and KIOB. These winds will diminish near sunset, but more exposed sites will see a variable to southerly wind around 5 kts or so. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEERTSON LONG TERM...VORST AVIATION...GEERTSON  954 FXUS64 KLIX 192004 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 304 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 256 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Low confidence high impact forecast tonight with the possibility of flash flooding across northwestern portions of the CWA. This includes the cities of Baton Rouge and McComb. - Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous and widespread Wednesday through the weekend. 7 day rainfall totals will range from 4 to 7 inches in the northwest to less than an inch of much of coastal MS and extreme SELA. - Minor coastal flooding may slightly impact typically known problem areas like Waveland, MS today and Wednesday around midday. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Wednesday) Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The short term forecast is going to focus on the remainder of this afternoon, evening and then look at tomorrow but probably a little more focus on the next 6-12 hours than normally with the regular package. Some of the CAMs for the past 24 to even 30 hours have consistently focused on the northwestern quadrant of our CWA developing convection during the late afternoon through the evening hours. This is remarkable consistency given that they have been very inconsistent with any MCS or remnants of an MCS moving into the area overnight tonight. The convection of concern would begin to develop around 21/22z and is well ahead of any MCS. The big question is why would this develop and develop over the areas mainly near and northwest of a line from Baton Rouge to McComb. A few things look like they could be coming together. First models are suggesting that even though the LL winds don't necessarily increase but there will be a decent increase in the LL confluence across the northwest starting around 22z and persisting through the evening or until an MCS or remnant boundary of an MCS moves through overnight. There is already a mid lvl impulse pushing into the Lower MS Valley and it is already adding to the lift giving us isolated to widely scattered showers across the western half of the CWA. There is also a remnant boundary from an MCV that was over southeast TX earlier today moving towards the Atchafalaya and that could help to spark some development across the northwest in the next few hours. Last we will see an increase in the diffluence aloft at the same time we are seeing that increase in the LL confluence. In almost a classic split flow type setup, the northwestern portions of the CWA will be directly under an enhanced V which will provide very efficient diffluence aloft. Looking at the current conditions there is abundant moisture in place. PWs are ranging from 1.7 to just under 1.9" based off of GOES19 TPW product. LL moisture has also been increasing for the past 24 to 36 hours and dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s. Instability is also not in short supply with ML CAPE of 2500 and sfc based CAPE between 3-3500 j/kg however the Mid lvl lapse rates are likely around 5.5-6 C/km which this makes sense given the moisture laden airmass we have. This also would tend to take hail off the board from a standpoint of severe aspects. I won' t say tornadoes are not possible but they aren't the top concern given the lack of shear. 0-1 and 0-3 km helicity is absent basically and 0-6km bulk shear is generally around 20-30kt. This suggest more multicellular setup and not really organized severe weather. That said with the amount of moisture and instability in place there will be a risk possibly a wet microburst or two with any thunderstorm that can become a little more potent. So at this time severe can not be ruled out but it is not the biggest concern, that may actually be flash flooding butit will be highly dependent on where the storms fire and of course if we actually get deeper convection to persist for the 4 to 8 hours that some of the CAMs are advertising. At this time confidence is still in the medium range mainly do to convection developing, how long it persists, and especially location. That said confidence is high that any thunderstorms that develop late this afternoon and through the evening will be extremely efficient due to weak steering currents, abundant moisture and instability, and enhanced diffluence aloft. The REFS PMM shows widespread totals greater than 4 inches across much of the northwest with multiple locations possibly seeing greater than 7 inches and that is before 12z tomorrow. The majority of this risk looks to be from 22z till 4z today/tonight but storms could persist longer and there is still a great deal of uncertainty with respect to any MCS developing and trying to move towards the area overnight. Biggest concern is if storms get anchored in and around the BTR metro (includes Denham Springs, Walker, Baker, portions of West Baton Rouge) or some of the flashier parts of southwest MS where there is some elevation changes and could lead to some very problematic flash flooding. As for overnight and tomorrow this is more of a question mark. It looks like a disturbance coming out of Mexico may be what helps get another MCS to develop over southeast TX this evening and that will try to work east. This lift may also try to help redevelop a decaying MCS moving south and SSE out of northeast TX and southwest AR. There is a lot of uncertainty with how all that develops and move into the region. If it strengthens and develops a strong cold pool it would surge SSE towards the instability and likely moves into or skirts the western fringes of the CWA and into the Gulf early tomorrow...probably before sunrise. However there will be some remnant boundary stretching back to the north from it across the CWA which may be the focus of development tomorrow. The biggest question is how much cloud cover do we have over the area and will it allow us to destabilize enough to get convection to develop early enough or does it hold off and we wait for the next subtle impulse to come across the area in the southwest flow aloft tomorrow afternoon/evening. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday night) Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Focus is really on the short term especially given the next 4 to 8 hours and uncertainty overnight. That said models have not changed and the pattern we will be in just screams active weather for the next week. Obviously rain won't be occurring the entire time as there will be breaks and possibly even one or two days with limited rainfall as timing any of these impulses is difficult to futile this far out and depending how long one rain event lasts it could work us over pretty well leading to the area needing some time to recover. No deviations made from the latest NBM. As we have been mentioning for the last few days, we will remain under persistent southwest flow aloft with abundant moisture in place. This is going to leave us in a rather favorable regime for multiple rounds of storms and locally heavy rain. Biggest difference the previous rain event we have had and is a positive difference is there is no real well defined front laying up over the area to act as a sfc/LL focus. That said with the ridge still holding strong over the eastern Gulf and into the southeastern CONUS and southwest flow aloft we still look like there could be quite the dichotomy across the region with the northwest seeing multiple inches of rain, 3-6 inches after tonight and tomorrows possible rain and maybe struggling to even get an inch of rain over portions of coastal MS and extremesoutheast LA. Temperatures will be slightly above normal mainly due to above normal lows as we remain very humid throughout the forecast. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Most terminals are in VFR status but there is low cigs out there and increasing convection. Areal coverage of SHRA/TSRA will remain isolated through at least 22z, but after that storms may eventually become more confined to areas along and west of I-55. Will continue to carry TEMPOs and PROB30 for BTR/MSY/HDC/MCB. Low clouds and visibilities are possible toward sunrise Wednesday, especially if a terminal gets precipitation this afternoon/evening. /CAB/ && .MARINE... Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A large area of high pressure will remain situated over the western Atlantic through the week and into the weekend. This will maintain light to moderate onshore flow through the time. Winds will bounce around headline criteria with sustained winds right around to slightly below 15 kts, especially closer to the coast and west of the MS River. As for showers and thunderstorms, daily isolated to scattered showers will be possible each day however the bulk of the coverage will remain inland. With any thunderstorms locally hazardous winds and waves can be expected. Any minor coastal flooding that occurred today should quickly abate and expecting tides to be a little lower each day through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. /CAB/ && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CAB LONG TERM....CAB AVIATION...CAB MARINE...CAB  601 FXUS61 KPHI 192012 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 412 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All of the Heat Advisory now in effect through 8 PM Wednesday. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm possible through early this evening mainly north/west of I-95. Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Hot and humid conditions continue, with record setting early season heat probable, through Wednesday. 2. A strong cold front brings some showers and possibly isolated severe thunderstorms to the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. 3. Significantly cooler temperatures and showers for the end of this week and the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions continue, with record setting early season heat probable, through Wednesday. A strong upper-level ridge centered off the Southeast U.S. coast will remain in place through tonight before it starts to flatten on its northwest side during Wednesday. This along with surface high pressure anchored in the western Atlantic will continue to drive a southwesterly flow of early season (anomalous) heat across our area through Wednesday. Temperatures peak in the 90s for many areas again this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon, except cooler along the coasts and the higher terrain. While the surface dew points will mix out some during peak heating this afternoon due to the drier ground and boundary layer, this stretch of early season heat, with additional record breaking high temperatures probable, will have potentially greater impacts. The Heat Advisory remains in place across much of the region, where the heat index criteria starts at 100F (the urban I-95 corridor criteria starts at 96F through June). While some areas will probably fall a little short, the potential for greater impacts (lack of acclimation) continues to drive our decision. Where the wind turns more from the south and especially southeast will result in quite a bit of cooling due to the chilly ocean and therefore continued to not include the immediate coastal zones in the Heat Advisory. Peak heat indices will be near 100 degrees, with the core of the heat shifting a bit more south and east during Wednesday as a strong cold front starts to arrive. Despite it being a little cooler from Berks County, the Lehigh Valley into northern New Jersey Wednesday, it will be another day of hot and humid conditions. Given the consecutive stretch of this early season heat, opted to continue the current Heat Advisory through 8 PM Wednesday but extended the far north and west segment (also through 8 PM Wednesday). High temperatures on Wednesday will depend on how quickly cloud cover arrives along with showers and some thunderstorms, especially north and west of I-95. Either way, we will have a high launching pad once again for temperatures to start Wednesday and it will still be rather hot. This afternoon and into this evening will mainly precipitation- free, however an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out mainly north and west of I-95 given the amount of heat and instability combined with a thermal trough nearby. This would most likely be terrain induced or isolated activity arriving from the west. Given steep low-level lapse rates, dry boundary layer (high DCAPE) but rather weak forcing, any convection should be short-lived and pulse variety with locally gusty winds (downbursts) possible. KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings some showers and possibly isolated severe thunderstorms to the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. A strong cold front will settle across our area Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night before stalling near Delmarva into Thursday. Showers and some thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front, and there looks to be a zone of higher instability across our central and southern zones Wednesday afternoon. It is in these areas where convection may try to organize a bit more as it develops eastward and encounters plenty of instability. The deep-layer shear is on the marginal side (strongest shear to our northwest) as are the mid level lapse rates, however a hot boundary layer will result in steep low-level lapse rates. The combination of the steep low-level lapse rates and any stronger convective cores, locally strong to damaging winds (downbursts) will be possible. Due to the lower shear convection may struggle to organize, however given the hot air mass in place some linear or small clustering could develop from about the Philadelphia metro on south and eastward late in the afternoon and evening. The coverage of stronger convection is of lower confidence, however given the lower shear values the severe thunderstorm risk looks isolated. General rainfall totals are 0.10- 0.50 inches, however given precipitable water values of 1.5-2.0 inches, localized higher amounts are quite possible with any stronger showers or thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms should end by late Wednesday evening, with some showers lingering in the wake of the cold front. KEY MESSAGE 3...Significantly cooler temperatures and showers for the end of this week and the holiday weekend. A cold front is forecast to settle and then stall to our south Thursday and into the holiday weekend. Some ripples of energy ride along and north of it and this looks to bring some rounds of showers to our region. A more organized surface low well to our west may provide an increase in showers or a period of rain later Friday and Saturday. The precipitation may become enhanced some as surface high pressure to our northeast wedges southwestward into our area creating some cool air damming. This will all result in much cooler temperatures Thursday through Saturday, then some warming should take place Sunday and into Memorial Day. The pattern looks active though and therefore some additional showers are quite possible right into Memorial Day. While not great timing, our region needs rain as a long-term drought continues. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. This afternoon...VFR. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out toward evening mainly north and west of KPHL. Southwesterly winds 8-12 knots with some gusts to 20 knots. Low confidence regarding shower/thunderstorm occurrence. Tonight...VFR. Southwest winds 5-10 knots, becoming locally light and variable. Moderate confidence. Wednesday...VFR overall with increasing clouds during the day. Some showers and thunderstorms arrive later in the afternoon and evening with areas of sub-VFR conditions. Locally gusty winds possible with a stronger thunderstorm. Southwest winds increasing to 10-15 knots with some gusts to 20 knots. Low confidence on timing details. Outlook... Thursday...A period of sub-VFR conditions with some showers. Friday through Sunday...Periods of sub-VFR conditions with showers at times, especially late Friday and Saturday. && .MARINE... Southerly winds will be gusty, to 20 knots, through Wednesday, however a hot air mass over the chilly ocean water is resulting in a very strong inversion just about the surface. This is limiting the vertical mixing. While seas in the southerly flow could build to 5 feet through Wednesday, it is very marginal and therefore the Small Craft Advisory was cancelled. There is the potential for isolated gusty thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday evening. Outlook... Thursday...Theconditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Friday and Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions should occur. Sunday...Seas may linger around 5 feet, otherwise the conditions should be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Rip Currents... On Wednesday, south to southwest winds will range from 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. There will be a southeast swell with a period around 6 seconds. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for the Jersey Shore and a LOW risk for Delaware Beaches. On Thursday, winds become northeast 10 to 15 mph at the Jersey Shore in Monmouth County, and 15 to 20 mph at the rest of the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches. There will be a southerly swell with a period around 6 seconds. Breaking waves will be 1 to 3 feet. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore in Monmouth County and a MODERATE risk for the rest of the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. Surface temperatures inland will be in the 90s again on Wednesday, temperatures along the coasts will mainly be in the 70s to near 80 due to ocean temperatures in the 50s. These cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .CLIMATE... Some record breaking temperatures are forecast through Wednesday. High temperatures today and low temperatures Wednesday morning could challenge monthly all time records for May. Records for our climate sites are listed below: Monthly Record High Temperatures for May Site Record/Date Allentown (ABE) 97/May 19, 1962 AC Airport (ACY) 99/May 29, 1969 AC Marina (55N) 95/May 31, 1895 & May 23, 1925 Georgetown (GED) 98/May 28, 1991 Mount Pocono (MPO) 94/May 22, 1911 Philadelphia (PHL) 97/May 30 & 31, 1991 Reading (RDG) 97/May 20, 1996 Trenton (TTN) 99/May 23, 1911 & May 31, 1986 Wilmington (ILG) 98/May 10, 1895 & May 30, 1895 Monthly Record Warmest Low Temperatures for May Site Record/Date Allentown (ABE) 71/May 31, 1975, May 28 & 31, 1991 AC Airport (ACY) 73/May 24, 2004 & May 19, 2017 AC Marina (55N) 73/May 30 & 31, 1987, & May 31, 1991 Georgetown (GED) 74/May 23, 1953 & May 20, 2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 68/May 21, 1996 Philadelphia (PHL) 78/May 31, 1895 Reading (RDG) 72/May 28 & 31, 1939, & May 31, 1991 Trenton (TTN) 75/May 31, 1895 Wilmington (ILG) 75/May 30, 1895 Record High Temperatures May 19 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 97/1962 AC Airport (ACY) 96/1962 AC Marina (55N) 92/1998 Georgetown (GED) 96/1962 Mount Pocono (MPO) 89/1962 Philadelphia (PHL) 96/1962 Reading (RDG) 96/1962 Trenton (TTN) 96/1962 Wilmington (ILG) 95/1962 Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 19 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 65/2017 AC Airport (ACY) 73/2017 AC Marina (55N) 68/1998 Georgetown (GED) 73/2017 Mount Pocono (MPO) 60/1943 Philadelphia (PHL) 74/1877 Reading (RDG) 68/1962 Trenton (TTN) 70/2017 Wilmington (ILG) 70/2017 Record High Temperatures May 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 92/1962 & 1996 AC Airport (ACY) 96/1996 AC Marina (55N) 93/1996 Georgetown (GED) 95/1962 Mount Pocono (MPO) 89/1996 Philadelphia (PHL) 94/1962 & 1996 Reading (RDG) 97/1996 Trenton (TTN) 94/1996 Wilmington (ILG) 96/1996 Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 66/2019 AC Airport (ACY) 68/1996 AC Marina (55N) 69/1996 Georgetown (GED) 74/2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 61/1959 Philadelphia (PHL) 71/2019 Reading (RDG) 69/1959 & 1996 Trenton (TTN) 68/1903, 1959, & 1962 Wilmington (ILG) 70/2019 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ060>062-070-071- 101>106. NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ007>010-012-013- 015-017>020-027. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ012>021- 026-027. DE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gorse AVIATION...Gorse MARINE...AKL/Gorse/MPS  040 FXUS64 KMAF 192023 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 323 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 322 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Strong to severe storms remain possible late this afternoon and evening, mainly from the southern Permian Basin into the Lower Trans Pecos. Large hail (up to 2 inches or greater), damaging winds (up to 70 mph), and frequent lightning will accompany the most intense storms that develop. - Strong to severe storms are expected once again on Wednesday. Large hail and damaging winds will be threats as well as localized flash flooding. - Shower and storm chances continue into the weekend as additional disturbances move overhead. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Surface observations indicate that the cold front extends from just east of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains to the Upper Trans Pecos and southern Permian Basin as of 2 PM CDT this afternoon. A cooler and drier airmass remains in place over the rest of the forecast area behind the cold front, and we ended up lowering afternoon high temperatures in the 70s to mid 80s behind this boundary. SPC mesoscale analysis shows a corridor of moderate instability with CAPE values of 1500-3000 J/KG along and just of this boundary over the southern Permian Basin and into the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Big Bend where temperatures are in the upper 80s to mid 90s with dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower 60s. A shortwave impulse embedded within southwesterly flow aloft will move across west Texas this afternoon and we expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop along the southern Basin and Lower Trans Pecos near the boundary and to the east of the trailing dryline late this afternoon into this evening. The moderate instability, steep mid-level lapse rates, and increasing effective bulk shear will support organized storm growth and supercell development over these locations. Large hail up to 2"+ in diameter and damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe modes with any supercell storms that develop. The tornado threat will be lower, but still cannot be ruled out with supercells that develop in the vicinity of the front. Heavy rainfall may also lead to localized flash flooding. The severe threat should by mid to late evening as storms move east of our region. Cooler temperatures return tonight with lows in the 50s over parts of southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin, as well as higher terrain areas. Lows will be in the 60s to near 70 over our central and southern zones. Another active day is expected Wednesday as shortwave impulses continue to translate over the forecast area within the southwesterly flow aloft. The surface boundary will remain oriented from the southeast New Mexico Plains to the Trans Pecos. Shower/storm coverage will increase over much of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, with the greatest coverage (50-70%) over the Permian Basin, the Trans Pecos, and Big Bend. Instability and shear parameters will once again favor organized convection with a few storms capable of becoming severe with large hail and damaging winds. The greatest instability will be over the Permian Basin into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend where large hail over golfball size (potentially 2"+) will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. The severe threat may shift to our east by late Wednesday evening but a few showers and storms may persist into Thursday night under the southwesterly flow aloft. Localized flash flooding will be possible with storms that have intense rainfall rates. Highs Wednesday afternoon remain below normal with readings in the 70s and 80s over much ofthe region, except 90s along the Rio Grande. Lows Wednesday night range in the 50s and 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 By Friday, the dryline looks to set up somewhere along our far eastern counties or just to the east of our forecast area. Meanwhile, guidance shows an upper-level low located over Baja, leaving the region under southwest flow aloft. This may allow for an isolated shower/storm or two to develop, but the best chances are currently expected to be east of our forecast area. Chances (10-30%) of showers and storms increase Friday evening with the retreating dryline. Long-range guidance keeps us under a similar pattern through the weekend/early next week (with the help of upslope flow), yielding shower and storm chances each day in the extended. At this time, there is uncertainty in rainfall totals, which will depend on where remnant boundaries set up and the track of the aforementioned upper-level low. Otherwise, afternoon highs are forecast to be in the 80s (90s in many spots on Friday) for most each day. Overnight lows bottom out into the 50s and 60s each night. Greening && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front will extend from far southeast New Mexico and through the Trans Pecos and southern Permian Basin this afternoon. Scattered TSRA are expected to develop over the eastern and southern Permian Basin and portions of the Trans Pecos along this boundary this afternoon into this evening. We maintained a PROB30 mention of TSRA at KFST late this afternoon. Northerly to northeasterly winds of 10-20 knots with occasional higher gusts will gradually turn easterly late this afternoon into this evening. VFR generally remains prevalent through this afternoon and evening. There is potential for MVFR ceilings to develop late tonight into Wednesday morning, especially over the Permian Basin near KMAF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 59 77 60 81 / 10 40 60 40 Carlsbad 61 83 59 88 / 10 30 30 20 Dryden 66 84 64 85 / 30 40 80 30 Fort Stockton 63 85 61 87 / 10 60 60 30 Guadalupe Pass 60 79 58 81 / 10 20 20 10 Hobbs 55 75 55 82 / 10 40 40 30 Marfa 53 86 51 82 / 0 20 40 20 Midland Intl Airport 60 77 60 82 / 10 50 60 30 Odessa 61 78 61 82 / 10 50 60 30 Wink 61 82 60 86 / 10 40 50 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...21  018 FXUS65 KTWC 192023 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 123 PM MST Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A dry weather system to our north will bring southwesterly breezes through Wednesday with slightly less wind thereafter into the weekend. Temperatures will be slightly below to near normal for the rest of the week with Minor HeatRisk. && .DISCUSSION...Partly to mostly sunny skies this afternoon across southeast Arizona with some thin high level cirroform clouds moving in from the southwest. Latest WV satellite imagery shows a broad trough axis extending from the northern Rockies into southeast CA with southwest flow aloft over AZ. This setup is resulting in some breezes this afternoon, especially to the south and east of Tucson where elevated fire weather conditions continue. This pattern will remain persistent through Wednesday with continued breezes, and high level cloudiness across the region. For Thursday through Saturday, a weak upper low is progged to develop off the northern Baja coast and then gradually slide eastward into Sonora. This system won't have much of an impact for us, but afternoon breezes will tick down during this time. There is potential for a bit of mid level moisture creeping north into locales south and east of Tucson for a few build-ups Saturday. The likelihood is higher for a more notable mid level moisture push by around next Monday as another upper low approaches the southern California coast and bring in moisture from the south and southwest. Still plenty of time to see how this evolves over the upcoming days but for now we're depicting a 10 to 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday for much of SE Arizona, then trending towards eastern areas Tuesday. Temperatures through Saturday will be near to slightly below normal through the forecast period. && .AVIATION...valid through 21/00Z. SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20K feet AGL and another FEW-SCT layer at or around 15K feet AGL through the forecast period. SFC winds SWLY at 12-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts through 20/03Z, with the strongest winds south and east of KTUS, especially at KDUG terminal. SFC winds diminish and become SELY/SLY to less than 10 kts between 20/04Z and 20/16Z, before becoming SWLY again 10-18 kts with gusts as high as 30 kts aft 20/16Z through end of valid period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry and breezy conditions through Wednesday resulting in elevated fire weather conditions for areas east and south of Tucson with brief near critical conditions existing in the southeastern portion of Cochise County. For Thursday through Sunday, winds will be generally be less than 15 mph with min relative humidities sitting in the teens to the mid-20s. Mid to upper level moisture will approach as early as this weekend south and east of Tucson, but the more impactful moisture will likely hold off until early next week as another weather system approaches. THere is a 10 to 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday for much of southeast Arizona, and these chances will trend towards the NM border Tuesday, && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson  103 FXUS63 KMKX 192025 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 325 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty northwest winds in the wake of a cold front will diminish this evening. - Easterly winds will keep lakeshore temperatures cooler than inland areas Wednesday through Friday. Expect a gradual warming trend Saturday through Memorial Day. - Rain chances return Friday afternoon and night (40-60%), with much smaller chances the rest of the holiday weekend. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 325 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Tonight through Wednesday Night: Gusty west-northwest winds in the wake of the surface cold front will gradually diminish through late evening as an inversion sets up. Cloud cover is more uncertain, but there should be a thinning/clearing trend from west to east overnight. The upper wave will swing across WI much later than the surface front, so temps will remain on the milder side during the overnight period, ranging from the upper 40s southeast to the lower 40s toward central WI. By 12Z/7AM Wed, the mid level trough and 850mb front will be stalled over central WI. Meanwhile, a shortwave tracking across the Plains will push into southern WI by midday. The interaction of the 850mb front sliding south and the incoming shortwave will help colder air rush down the lakeshore quicker than inland (back door cold front) during Wed morning. This should also bring a period of low clouds to the lakeshore and slightly higher but still widespread clouds to inland areas. Temps will remain cooler near the lake, with highs ranging from the mid 50s lakeshore to the lower/mid 60s well inland. Despite surface high pressure sitting over the Upper Great Lakes, the mid level shortwave and right entrance region of the upper jet should keep at least mid level clouds around. Without the clearing and with a persistent light easterly breeze, our frost potential is very low. The forecast low temps are between 39 and 42. This is slightly up from the previous forecast and nearly lined up with the 50th percentile of model solutions. Cronce && .LONG TERM... Issued 325 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Thursday through Tuesday: The upper level pattern will be very similar to Wed on Thursday. The mid level clouds may be even thicker. A steady easterly breeze will keep lakeshore temps cooler than inland (similar temps as Wed). Thursday night lows will be in the lower to mid 40s. The surface east winds will remain steady through Friday, and this may help to hold off the rain. Models are trending later with the arrival of our next chance for precip. An upper trough progressing through the Northern Plains Thursday night into Friday will swing into MN Fri evening. Meanwhile, a weak low crossing MO and IL will slide into Lower Michigan. Southern WI will be in the middle of those features, but weak warm air advection and the synoptic forcing could be enough for scattered light showers. The thunder threat is looking lower now due to the probable timing into the evening/overnight. There is no severe threat. The ECMWF has a wetter look to the Fri nt/Sat period than the GFS at this time. We will keep a close eye on this for the holiday weekend. The upper trough will be crossing WI on Sunday and this will bring a chance for showers of the scattered, pop-up variety. If the low level lapse rates are steep enough, a few rumbles of thunder look possible Sunday afternoon. This would not be an all-day wash-out. Monday weather looks quiet right now, as we will be between systems. There will be a warming trend with the temps through the Memorial Day weekend, with highs around 70 Sat, 75 Sun, and 80 Mon. Cronce && .AVIATION... Issued 325 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Expect MVFR ceilings and gusty northwest winds behind a cold front that is currently crossing southeast WI (now near Milwaukee). Ceilings should lift to VFR late this afternoon and then disperse tonight as skies gradually clear as high pressure works into the region. Clouds below 5000 ft should be present on Wednesday, especially closer to Lake Michigan where a period of MVFR ceilings are expected as the northeast winds develop in the morning. The northeast winds will expand inland through early afternoon. Cronce && .MARINE... Issued 325 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Gusty westerly winds are developing in the wake of a cold front this afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt will be possible right behind the front and then winds will gradually diminish overnight. High pressure will then move into the northern Great Lakes on Wednesday. Modest northeast winds are expected Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, especially over the south half. Winds will remain easterly through Saturday as strong high pressure tracks across Ontario and Quebec and a weak low pressure trough sets up in the Plains. The Small Craft Advisory for the nearshore was extended until 7 PM CDT this evening due to gusty west-northwest winds. Northeast winds will develop Wednesday morning and persist through Saturday. This will build high waves in the nearshore areas by Wednesday afternoon. Another small craft advy will be needed. Cronce && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM Tuesday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  856 FXUS64 KHGX 192038 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 338 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected this week with the first round arriving tonight. Strong to severe storms will be possible with damaging winds as the main threat. Locally heavy rainfall also expected. - Rain and storm chances remain elevated through the entire holiday weekend with periods of locally moderate to heavy rain, potentially leading to localized flooding. - The threat of hazardous rip currents remains through at least midweek before marine hazards transition to thunderstorm-driven waves. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Wetter conditions are expected this week and into Memorial Day weekend with multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain. Synoptically speaking, a broad longwave trough will continue to deepen and move across the Rockies and into the Plains today, persisting through the rest of the week. With a persistent southwesterly flow aloft, this trough is helping to eject multiple impulses of energy/disturbances ahead of it, resulting in increased dynamics/forcing across the region. At the surface, a warm and very moist airmass (PWAT near/at the climatological max for mid-May) along with an approaching frontal boundary from the north, will be enough to support a daily risk of showers and storms. This afternoon/early evening: A warm and humid airmass remains in place over the region. With moderate instability, and weak boundary (-ies) meandering over the area; we expect to see isolated to scattered activity. Tonight into Wednesday: The first round of scattered to widespread showers and storms is expected as early as this evening, continuing into early Wednesday. Early this afternoon, satellite and surface obs showed a cold front slowly moving southeast into north-central TX. While this front is forecast to remain to our west, a fairly unstable warm and moist airmass ahead of it, combined with deep moisture convergence due to a developing surface trough, and forcing aloft could potentially lead to scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. We will continue to monitor these clusters of storms as they could potentially evolve into a line of bowing segments, capable of producing damaging winds. SPC highlights this threat in their Day 1 Outlook with a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather across our far western counties, and a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) elsewhere. In addition to strong to severe storms, locally moderate to heavy rain is expected with the strongest storms. Forecast rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches can be expected with isolated higher amounts of 5 to 7 inches possible. Rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour will likely leading to localized flash flooding along with quick responses on area rivers and creeks. Rain/storms should gradually taper off early Wednesday morning. While a lull in activity is possible during the day, cannot ruled out isolated to scattered showers/storms popping up in the afternoon with the peak of daytime heating. Thursday and Friday: Periods of showers and storms will continue as more disturbances aloft move through the region. The next mesoscale convective system is forecast to move through on Thursday during the day, with an additional isolated to scattered activity on Friday. Specific details on the exact timing and location of the heaviest rain remain difficult to determine; however, widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches will be possible with isolated higher amounts up to 4 inches possible. Memorial Day Weekend ( Saturday - Monday): A continuos parade of disturbances aloft combined with sufficient deep moisture will support additional periods of showers and storms through the entire holiday weekend. Based on the latest trends, forecast rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches are possible. Locally higher totals possible,especially with the strongest storms. With the ground already saturated from previous rainfall, soils will be primed for runoff, leading to flooding problems in areas of heavy downpours. While confidence is high for a wet weekend, confidence in the exact timing and location of the heaviest rain is low. Initial rounds of storms early in the week will potentially affect any storms later in the week. Focus on the potential impacts and stay tuned to the latest forecast, especially if you have outdoor plans this Memorial Day weekend. See Hydrology section below for more information on forecast rainfall and potential flooding. JM && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 SHRA and isolated TSRA over the area will dissipate over the next few hours. MVFR cigs expected to trend VFR by the afternoon, with SE winds becoming more ESE later in the day. We still anticipate a line of SHRA/TSRA to move into the area from the north and west this evening / overnight. However, confidence in the forecast (especially regarding TSRA timing and severity) is quite low. In addition, the wind direction/speed forecast is uncertain tonight into Wednesday morning. The primary concern from TSRA will be strong gusty winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Winds and seas will continue to weaken/subside this afternoon, with only some building seas up to 8ft persisting well offshore through early this evening. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected this week, with the first one starting tonight and extending into early Wednesday morning. A few of these storms will be capable of becoming strong to severe with strong winds as the main threat. Locally heavy rain will also be expected. A daily risk of showers and storms will continue this week and persist through the Memorial Day weekend. Light to occasionally onshore winds should prevail through the period; however, stronger gusts are possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Regarding beach conditions, there is a high risk of rip currents persisting through the weekend. JM && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected this evening through Monday. The first round will start tonight bringing 1-3" with isolated higher amounts of 5-7+". With PW values exceeding the 90th percentile (~1.7-2.1"), rainfall rates of 2-4"/hr are possible in the heaviest downpours. Anywhere we see these intense rainfall rates, localized flash flooding is possible. That being said, we are not anticipating widespread river flooding just yet; however, this will help prime the soils as we continue with a wet pattern. As the week progresses, multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall on top of primed soils will generate runoff and cause rises on area rivers and watersheds. The greatest threat for heavy rainfall, flash and riverine flooding comes this holiday weekend as intense rainfall rates will bring accumulated values of 4-6+" across most of southeast Texas Saturday into Monday. Widespread action to minor stage flooding is expected with moderate to isolated major stage flooding possible depending on where the most rainfall accumulates. Remember that you can monitor updated river forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/). Landry-Guyton && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 69 83 70 80 / 70 50 40 100 Houston (IAH) 71 86 73 84 / 70 60 30 100 Galveston (GLS) 75 85 78 85 / 70 60 10 70 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...Self MARINE...JM HYDRO... Landry-Guyton  983 FXUS66 KPDT 192041 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 141 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers today and Wednesday, mainly over the mountains - Breezy to locally windy westerly winds through the Cascade gaps today - Warming through the week && .DISCUSSION... Through Saturday, warming temperatures and mostly dry conditions are forecast region-wide as an upper-level ridge of high pressure will likely (95 percent confidence) build into the region from the Pacific and dominate the weather. A couple weak shortwaves coupled with modest diurnally induced instability (surface-based CAPE of a up to a couple hundred J/kg from forecast soundings) may facilitate some isolated showers, mainly over the mountains through Thursday, but PoPs are low (15 percent or less). Breezy to locally windy westerly winds are forecast through the Cascade gaps today, but not anticipating a need for any wind headlines. Late Wednesday through Thursday, a reversal to mostly light easterly to northeasterly (offshore) winds is forecast as a shortwave trough digs south across the northern Plains and Rockies, just clipping the edge of our forecast area. Considerable uncertainty in the 500-hPa pattern is present in ensemble solutions by the weekend and early next week, with the majority of the variance in solutions explained by timing and magnitude differences regarding the arrival of a trough or closed low from the Pacific. Ensemble trends have been towards a closed low for the Pacific Northwest sometime between Monday and Tuesday, but run-to-run and ensemble-to-ensemble differences are still quite significant and forecast confidence is lower than average. Ensemble clustering tools did not run today, so can't provide any more details about scenarios at this time. The NBM has westerly winds returning to the region by late Friday, persisting through the weekend and into early next week. There are low chances (10-40 percent) of reaching advisory- level winds Saturday and Sunday through wind-prone areas of the lower elevations, primarily the eastern Columbia River Gorge, north-central Oregon, the foothills of the Blue Mountains, and the Kittitas Valley. By Monday, chances increase to 20-60 percent across the same areas. Of course, the magnitude of winds will be tied to the synoptic pattern, and given the uncertainty (see paragraph above), can't really talk about much confidence in forecast details yet. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. CIGs will be mostly FEW/SCT 25kft with winds picking up at RDM/BDN after 21Z to 8-10G17-20kts, while DLS is currently breezy at 14G24kts and ALW is at 14kts sustained. Winds will settle after 4-6Z. All other TAF sites will see winds 10 kts and below. 90 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 46 73 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 50 73 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 49 79 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 47 78 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 48 76 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 43 72 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 37 73 39 77 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 40 70 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 39 73 39 76 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 50 77 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...90  049 FXUS66 KMTR 192043 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 143 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 138 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 - Diurnally driven winds expected this week, with onshore winds during the afternoon and early evening. - Above normal temperatures continue through midweek with seasonal temperatures returning late week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 138 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 (This evening through Wednesday) Winds have eased across the region with most sites currently reporting light offshore winds under 10 mph. Breezy, onshore afternoon winds are likely along the coast and within mountain gaps/passes. Not too much change to the overall synoptic pattern, broad upper level troughing continues over the western United States with an area of ridging and surface high pressure to our west over the Pacific. The center of the upper level trough continues to progress eastward with the surface pressure gradient becoming more relaxed, allowing wind speeds to diminish overall. The marine layer continues to be mixed out thanks to high pressure offshore which is allowing warmer temperatures to spread across the region. High temperatures will be seasonably warm today and again tomorrow with interior highs in the 80s to possibly the low 90s and coastal highs in the 60s to 70s. Critically dry conditions continue across the interior with the majority of stations reporting RH values in the 10s to 20s. Not much relief from drier conditions has been observed overnight with most sites only seeing overnight humidity recoveries to around 20-30%. This same pattern is expected to continue again on Wednesday with no real relief until the marine layer redevelops late week into the weekend. Fire weather concerns thus remain elevated given the critically dry conditions across the interior. If you are participating in any outdoor activities involving sparks or flame, exercise caution and be aware that fine fuels are very flammable at this time. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 138 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday) The general pattern remains the same through Thursday with high temperatures in the 80s to low 90s across the interior, 60s to 70s along the coast, diurnally breezy winds, and critically dry daytime conditions across the interior. A gradual pattern change will begin Thursday into Friday, becoming more noticeable over the weekend, as high pressure weakens, shifting west, and broad troughing dominates the West Coast. Winds will generally shift onshore again by Friday with a shallow marine layer redeveloping. High temperatures will generally drop into the 70s across the interior and 70s to mid 80s across the interior Central Coast while coastal highs stay in the 50s to 60s. As the marine layer redevelops, we will see improving humidity values across the interior which will reduce our overall fire weather concerns. Initially the marine layer will be around 500 ft Thursday into Friday but is expected to deepen to around 1000 ft by the weekend. Diurnally breezy afternoon/evening winds continue with breezier winds along the coast and in mountain gaps/passes. The initial NBM forecast shows temperatures warming back into the 80s by early next week. The caveat to this is that models are split between upper level ridging and upper level troughing developing over the West Coast towards the end of May. If ridging is able to develop, warmer temperatures are likely to round out the month but if troughing is able to develop then slightly cooler temperatures are more likely. In the troughing scenario, there is the possibility of some light rain but the more likely setup is a deep marine layer and coastal drizzle. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1021 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR will prevail the remainder of today and tonight with a chance of MVFR/IFR cigs developing around sunrise Wednesday. Light and variable winds this morning become light but steady onshore this afternoon and evening. Vicinity of SFO...VFR is expected through today and tonight with a slight chance of MVFR cigs developing around sunrise Wednesday with confidence too low for mentioning in the TAF attm. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar as SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR will prevail today and tonight with a chance of MVFR/IFR cigs developing around sunrise Wednesday morning. Expect light and variable to light onshore winds through the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 914 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 Fresh northerly breezes will continue over the northern outer zones through tomorrow with hazardous conditions through Thursday morning. Wave heights increase again on Thursday with increasing northwest swell that eases for the end of the weak into the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  472 FXUS65 KCYS 192052 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 252 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chilly temperatures will continue for the next several days. Another round of freezing temperatures is expected Wednesday morning in areas with snow cover, with patchy frost and fog elsewhere. - Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue through Wednesday night. A more widespread round of showers is expected Thursday into Friday. - Above average temperatures and pleasant weather expected for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Chilly and unsettled weather will continue for the next several days as temperatures will be slow to return back to seasonal averages. Broad troughing will remain over the west through the end of the work week, with a series of weak vort-maxes providing limited precipitation potential. The cold surface high pressure system is located over the central and northern plains, keeping fairly light winds and cold temperatures over the area today. Visible satellite imagery shows plentiful snow cover lingering over portions of Carbon, Albany, and Converse counties. Meanwhile, a weak shortwave located over eastern Utah is supporting modest isentropic lift just to our south. This lift will very slowly creep north and eastward overnight and into Wednesday morning, which will support some isolated light shower activity through the period. This afternoon, expect this to be mainly in Albany and Laramie counties, but this will spread north and east overnight and into Wednesday morning. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible. As the mid-level lift pushes into our area, the surface high will retreat to the east, initiating southerly winds over much of the High Plains tonight. With moisture remaining quite elevated, we will need to watch for some fog tonight. Along and east of the Laramie Range, this will be upslope fog, whereas areas further west can expect some patchy radiation fog thanks to clearing skies, lingering moisture, and snow cover. Carbon, Albany, and Converse counties are more likely to remain clear overnight, and with the snow cover and light winds, another cold night is anticipated. Rawlins not only obliterated their daily record low this morning by dropping to 8F, but they also broke the previous monthly record low for May! Tonight will not be quite as cold, but a daily record low is still forecast for Rawlins again. Existing Freeze Watches were upgraded to a Freeze Warning for these areas. In addition, a Frost Advisory was spread one row of zones eastward. Current thinking is that further east, there will be enough cloud cover to prevent widespread frost issues, but the cloud deck edge main remain east of Platte and Niobrara counties. If clouds remain more limited than anticipated, frost could spread eastward, which will be monitored this evening. Wednesday will remain cool relative to seasonal averages with plenty of cloud cover, especially east of the Laramie Range. Drier air will start to move into our western zones, which will set up a dry-line / wind shift boundary somewhere in between the Laramie Range and the Wyoming/Nebraska state line. Some limited instability will setup along this boundary. While forcing looks quite limited, we may manage to kick off an isolated storm or two. PoPs generally remain between 20 and 40%. With moisture remaining elevated over the High Plains, we'll be looking at another chance for some fog and low clouds Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Frost and freeze concerns will be more limited, mainly in Converse, Carbon, and Albany counties, though increasing cloud cover will keep temperatures warmer than the preceding few nights. By Thursday, amore potent upper level low will dive down from Canada across the northern Rockies. This will be slow moving, pushing a few showers into our western zones during the morning hours. The dryline and wind shift boundary should remain in place into Thursday but it may be a little more diffuse. The main forcing with the upper level trough and strong isentropic lift looks to be fairly well timed with daytime heating, arriving in the early to mid afternoon hours. Expect numerous showers with isolated to scattered embedded thunderstorms to expand in coverage through the afternoon hours and into the evening. Instability looks relatively unimpressive, around the 400 to 800 J/kg range, but a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out. Coverage of rainfall should be fairly good with this event. Most of the area has a 60% or greater chance for wetting rainfall (0.1" or more). For once, the higher probabilities are actually located in the Nebraska panhandle thanks to the instability and ample low-level moisture present. Shower activity will likely continue well into the night, and possibly even into Friday morning before the potent upper level low clears to the east and brings precipitation to an end. PoPs are fairly aggressive now, around 60 to 80% for most of the area, but this was toned down slightly from the NBM. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 The long term should be a mostly quiet weather period with some initial precipitation on Friday leading to warm and dry conditions by the weekend. Friday starts on the backside of a quick moving clipper system that will see widespread shower and some thunderstorm chances across the CWA. Thankfully this activity will be mostly passing in nature with limited instability and support for stronger activity, and by peak heating later in the day the best forcing should be far enough east that activity will be lessening to dissipating across the region. Into the weekend and early next week the upper levels will see a weak ridge of high pressure take control that will keep us mostly clear and increase temperatures. While some passing showers may be possible, it will be mostly relegated to the high terrain from orographic flow as stronger systems and better moisture are not expected until beyond the long term. Otherwise this will lead to the return of warmer conditions, with spring like temperatures in the 50's to 60's on Friday giving way to 70's and 80's by Sunday and Monday, with a chance for our eastern zones possibly peaking into the 90's on Monday. With the increasing warmth comes decreasing moisture, and enhanced fire weather concerns may return for the Nebraska Panhandle Sunday and Monday as moisture has not been notable enough to produce significant greenup as of this writing. While winds are currently expected to remain too weak to produce critical fire weather concerns, the dry nature of the region will still be conducive of problematic control problems if new fires do start up. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1141 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 KRWL is currently experiencing IFR to LIFR conditions due to localized fog, but this should begin to clear out over the next hour or two. Thereafter, expecting light winds and VFR conditions all sites through the early night hours. Precipitation may begin to move into KCYS beginning around 22Z and continue into the nighttime hours through around 04Z, with light precipitation then possible for all Nebraska Panhandle sites except KBFF as it appears to be just outside of possible rain. This precipitation will bring lowered CIGs and VIS, which could produce MVFR to IFR conditions for all sites impacted. Winds will also begin to increase, becoming breezy starting around 12Z primarily for Nebraska sites.Finally, fog may be possible again for KRWL tomorrow morning, as well as KLAR and KCYS. Have introduced VCFG for KRWL, along with lowered decks and some BR for KCYS, with higher uncertainty for KLAR and have kept it out of this TAF for now. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for WYZ102-106-107-117. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for WYZ101-115. Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM MDT Wednesday for WYZ104-105-109>111-113-116. NE...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for NEZ095. && $$ SHORT TERM...MN LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...CG