928 FXUS61 KCTP 191700 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 100 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Increasing odds for a noticeably cooler and rather wet start to Memorial Day weekend * SPC expanded the marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon into the Lower Susquehanna Valley. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Summerlike heat wave peaks today with record challenging temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s 2) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central PA later today/tonight and south central PA Wednesday afternoon 3) Major cooldown arrives Thursday and lasts into Memorial Day weekend with widespread soaking rainfall likely Friday and Saturday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Summerlike heat wave peaks today with record challenging temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s Another scorcher today with max temps 85-95F approaching daily records (see climate section). Max heat indices are fcst to reach the upper 90s, just shy of heat advisory criteria across the LSV. Record high minimum temps are also on the table for tonight. The one area of uncertainty regarding this temperature forecast is the showers and thunderstorms that have developed over the Laurel Highlands early this afternoon. These may help to keep high temperatures in the low to mid 80s for the areas that see these showers and storms. -------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central PA later today/tonight and south central PA Wednesday afternoon Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to pop up through the rest of the afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass. Wind shear is very weak (0-6 km shear is generally less than 20 knots), so any cells that develop may struggle to maintain themselves for long. That being said, steep low-level lapse rates and dry mid-levels may support a few strong to marginally severe downbursts in any longer-lived storms. The best thermodynamic environment for downbursts is over the Lower Susquehanna Valley, with DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg this afternoon, but dry air may limit the coverage of storms in that part of the forecast area. SPC has expanded the marginal risk of severe storms to highlight this potential. A weakening line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move into northwest PA during the late evening ahead of a cold front. SPC has maintained a slight risk of severe weather across northwest PA as this line may produce strong to severe wind gusts as it moves through. The line will quickly encounter a more stable environment as it progresses southeastward, so the threat for severe wind gusts should quickly decrease as it moves farther into the forecast area. Convective focus shifts to south central PA on Wednesday with narrow plume of weak to moderate CAPE fcst ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Steep low level lapse rates may support a few instances of strong to severe winds. The magnitude & location of the severe threat will be highly dependent on CFROPA timing and amount of cloud cover. SPC MRGL risk (level 1/5) covers the southeast half of the CWA where max temps are fcst btwn 80-90F. ----------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 3: Major cooldown arrives Thursday and lasts into Memorial Day weekend with widespread soaking rainfall likely Friday and Saturday Relief from the early season heat wave arrives in earnest on Thursday with max temps 20-30 degrees lower vs. Wednesday across the southeast half of the forecast area. Strong high pressure slides from the Lower Great Lakes to off the New England coast to close out the week. Model data shows the high channeling southwarddown the east-side of the Appalachians, setting up a cold air damming type event heading into Memorial Day weekend. We may not be bearish enough on daytime temperatures. It also appears probable that periods of soaking rain will dampen at least the start of the holiday weekend. WPC 48hr QPF amounts are quite wet with a widespread 1-2.5 inches fcst from 12Z Friday to 12Z Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Patchy low-lying fog has developed in spots where rain fell overnight & skies briefly cleared out. This fog should clear out by 13Z-14Z as daylight mixes out the boundary layer. Otherwise, prevailing VFR is favored through the 12Z TAF period, with the main exceptions being visibility restrictions in any heavier showers/thunderstorms that develop & cloud ceilings lowering to MVFR-IFR across the Northern Tier (KBFD) after 06Z Wednesday. Chances for spotty showers/thunderstorms will pick up again this afternoon and evening, primarily between 16Z-00Z, as weak shortwaves move across the periphery of a ridge over the Western Atlantic. Similar to yesterday, gusty winds may accompany these spotty showers/storms given the moderately unstable airmass (HREF mean SBCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg) and steep low-level lapse rates (>8 C/km) in place, though placement/timing uncertainties remain given the weak forcing mechanisms in place. Most convection will diminish after 00Z Wednesday with the loss of daytime heating, though some models are hinting at an MCS associated with an approaching cold front reaching KBFD around 03Z-06Z Wednesday, bringing the potential for gusty winds and visibility restrictions. MCS timing and impacts will be sensitive to its development/evolution across the Ohio Valley this afternoon & evening, with TAF mentions not included at this time given high model variability. Lastly, LLWS mentions were included at our northern terminals (KBFD/KIPT) through the evening/overnight hours as 900 mb winds increase to around 40 kts due to pressure gradient between low pressure over Southern Canada & Bermuda High over the Western Atlantic. Outlook... Wed...Restrictions probable through Wednesday night with widespread showers/storms along CFROPA. Thu...Lingering showers across S PA, restrictions possible. Fri...Restrictions likely with rain moving in from south to north, lasting into Fri night. Sat...Restrictions likely with rain. && .CLIMATE... The following climate sites across central Pennsylvania set new daily high temperature records for May 18th: * A record high temperature of 92 degrees was set in Altoona, breaking the previous record of 91 degrees initially set back in 1962. This record was tied two times previously, back in 1996 and 2017. * A record high temperature of 86 degrees was set in Bradford, breaking the previous record of 85 degrees set back in 1962. ** Note: The high temperature for State College will be reported around 7AM on 5/19. This is due to the State College CO-OP observations running 7AM-7AM. Thus, today's (5/18) high temperature will be reported in tomorrow's (5/19) observation. This record, for reference, is 92 degrees set in 1962. --------------------------------------------- Abnormally warm temperatures will continue on May 19th, thus multiple sites could challenge daily record high temperatures. Daily Maximum High Temperatures for May 19th: * Harrisburg: 95F set in 1962 * Williamsport: 96F in in 1996 * Altoona: 92F set in 1996 * Bradford: 85F set in 1962 * State College: 92F set in 1934, tied in 1996. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl/Bauco KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Bauco DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Bauco AVIATION...Teare CLIMATE...Beaty  042 FXUS66 KPDT 191700 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1000 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy to locally windy Today - Continued dry with a warming trend this week && .DISCUSSION... Later This Afternoon and Evening, breezy gap winds will develop across the Cascades mainly the Eastern Columbia River Gorge and the Kittitas Valley, with gusts of 15 to 25 mph around DLS and ELN, and higher gusts. This is in part to an upper ridge building across the region with increased cross cascade gradients. NBM members indicate about a 30 to 60% chances for wind gusts 40 mph or higher, between about 4 and 8 pm this evening. The next feature is a shortwave modeled to swing southeast through the Northern Rockies of Montana into CO Wednesday Evening, turning winds from light and variable or westerly, to definitively an northeasterly , but still light, on Thursday. Temperatures will still be trending warmer though this period although HeatRisk is still computed in the category1 level. Significant differences or spread is seen in the ensembles and specifically the cluster analysis for the weekend, with respect to the timing and depth /amplitude of an approaching west coast 500 mb trough days 5-7. These patterns do not have significant implications for wind or precipitation other than cluster3 (the flat ridge) being drier than the rest, with at 26% of the member by Monday keeping the mountains zones dry whereas other clusters forecast at least a few hundredths of an inch of light rain in the Columbia Basin and even wetting rains in the Cascade Crest on a 24 hour basis. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. CIGs will be mostly FEW/SCT 25kft with winds picking up at RDM/BDN after 21Z to 8-10G17-20kts, while DLS is currently breezy at 14G24kts and ALW is at 14kts sustained. Winds will settle after 4-6Z. All other TAF sites will see winds 10 kts and below. 90 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 72 46 73 46 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 72 50 73 49 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 77 49 79 51 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 75 47 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 75 48 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 68 43 72 44 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 72 37 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 68 40 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 70 39 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 73 50 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...71 AVIATION...90  177 FXUS62 KMHX 191702 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 102 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Locally dense fog possible for the Wed morning commute for portions of ENC Wed morning. 2) Above normal to near- record high temperatures and rain- free conditions to continue Wednesday. 3) A frontal system approaches the area Thursday, bringing the next appreciable chance of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Days of moisture advection has resulted in dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70F across eastern NC. High pressure centered offshore is keeping winds light to calm across SW portions of the CWA, with decoupling allowing for the near surface layer to reach saturation. Areas of fog and low stratus will again be possible, esp across the SE forecast area. SPS or Dense Fog Advisory may eventually be needed. Conditions should rapidly improve by 9AM as strong daytime heating scours out any fog/low stratus. KEY MESSAGE 2...Notably warm low-level thicknesses beneath an anomalous mid-upper level ridging will continue to support above to well above normal temperatures across the Carolinas through Wednesday. Guidance shows similar low-level thicknesses each afternoon yielding highs generally in the lower 90s across the coastal plain but some warmer spots may reach mid 90s, remaining just shy of records. It will be closest across the coastal plain, however. Additionally, despite increasing low-level moisture, ridging aloft should provide sufficient subsidence to suppress convective activity outside of perhaps a rogue shower or thunderstorm where convergence is maximized along the seabreeze. Still, probs of this occuring are low enough to keep out of the forecast with this update. KEY MESSAGE 3...The mid-upper level ridge is forecast to break down some late-week and into the weekend. This should allow a front to drop south Thursday into Friday as it encounters the persistent ridging that has been over the region for much of the past week. Confidence is increasing on the front reaching our CWA, with the most likely outcome being the front briefly stalling between the NC/SC border and Cape Hatteras. Once the high to the north shifts offshore this weekend and ridging strengthens again to our south, the warm front will get clearance to shift back north. The front has trended a bit slower to reach the CWA with this update. As a result, we are forecast to have enough residence time of warm southerly flow Thursday morning and afternoon ahead of the front to see high temps in the upper 80s to near 90 inland. Increasing moisture and instability along the frontal zone should support an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend. Probabilistic guidance shows a solid chance of 0.25"- 0.75" each day. However, it should be noted that those amounts will be highly dependent on the evolution of the frontal zone. Initially when the front drops into the area, there may be just enough flow aloft to support some thunderstorm organization. Model soundings show steep low level lapse rates and weak turning of low level winds ahead of the frontal passage Thursday and Saturday. A layer of dry air aloft could inhibit deep convection, but if updrafts are able to break through this, DCAPEs of 600-1000 J/kg could support a risk of strong to marginally severe winds. On the flip side, upper level dynamics and deep shear look unimpressive and could inhibit organized tstorms. This setup will be something to monitor the day of, with the later frontal passage timing allowing for greater instability Thursday. Friday, lower surface temps keep low level lapse rates more muted, and as a result a severe risk isn't present. Machine learning and analog guidance support the potential for strong to severe tstorms Thursday and Saturday as well. Notably high PWATs along the frontal zone should support higher rainfall rates in convection. However, notable hydro impacts are not expected due to the recent dry stretch and ongoing drought conditions. While probs are low, if we do see training storms over urban areas like Greenville, Jacksonville, and New Bern, minor flooding impacts could be seen despite the ongoing drought. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions across the terminals this afternoon. Given the similar set up and little change to the airmass, fog and low stratus chances return with another night of light winds and low level moisture. Best chances at OAJ/EWN/ISO. Locally dense fog will be possible. Conditions improve quickly after 12z. Outlook: A frontal boundary sagging south into ENC is expected to bring an increasing risk of SHRA, TSRA, and sub-VFR conditions Thu into the weekend. && .MARINE... A summer-like pattern continues through Wednesday, with a daily building of winds to 10-20kt each afternoon and evening as the thermal gradient tightens. This will especially be the case for the inland rivers and sounds and the nearby coastal waters within 20nm of the coast. Seas will continue around 2-3ft, potentially up to 4 ft during the afternoon and evening. Outlook: A frontal boundary is forecast to sag south into the area Thursday, then meander around the area through the upcoming weekend. This leads to lower confidence regarding winds and seas, but especially wind direction. In general, the risk of 25kt+ winds appears low during this time ahead of the front, with slightly higher chances of seeing 25+kt gusts behind the front. There will be an increased risk of thunderstorms in the region Thursday through Sunday as well. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SK/RJ AVIATION...CQD MARINE...SK/RJ  232 FXUS64 KSJT 191703 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1203 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe Storms possible this afternoon and evening. - Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday evening through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 133 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening... Cold front just north of Childress at 130 AM expected to move along I-20 mid morning around 9 AM and then slow down as it moves south along a San Angelo to Brownwood line 3-4 PM. While isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected this morning in the Big Country, a larger complex of strong to severe storms is expected to develop in the Concho Valley to Brownwood in maximum heating this afternoon. Complex then moves south and east into the I-10 corridor and NW Hill country this evening. With CAPES of 4000 J/kg and 0-6KM bulk shears of 30 to 35 KTS, supercells with very large hail over 2 inches possible. The complex of storms should move south of West Central by midnight, ending most of the severe weather threat. Precipital water values around 1.5 inches indicate efficient rainfall producers, and localized flooding possible, especially in urban areas. .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 By the time Wednesday night rolls around, another low pressure trough strengthens across the southwestern U.S. and continues moving to the east. This will provide another round of support for rain and thunderstorm development. High rain chances (80% chance) will be in place for Wednesday night. The previous rainfall from Tuesday could saturate soils to some degree. As a result, locations that receive multiple rounds of rain will see increased risk of flood related concerns on Wednesday night. The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked our area for a Slight Risk (15 to 40% chance) of Excessive rainfall leading to localized flash flooding through Wednesday night. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards. The long range models continue to show a disturbed weather pattern in place as this trough moves east for the later half of the work Week. A couple of embedded disturbances within the flow are also being indicated as well, which offers support for multiple rounds of rain. In the meantime, high rain chances (70%) are in place for Thursday. Additional rounds of thunderstorms remain a possibility through at least Friday. We will have to monitor closely for future updates regarding the severe weather and excessive rainfall (flash flooding) potential through the end of this week. Please check back for future updates and ensure you have multiple ways to receive any watches or warnings that may be issued. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Currently VFR at all sites as a cold front moves through from north to south. TSRA are expected to develop off of this cold front later this afternoon and evening, and affect KSJT, KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT during the evening hours. Have kept VCTS and TEMPO groups going from late this afternoon into the evening hours at these sites to address these storms. These TSRA should dissipate by 06Z, after which the cold front is expected to stall somewhere in our southern counties, giving east/northeast to northeast winds for our southern sites, with MVFR CIGs filling in behind the front after 06Z, and remaining through most of the morning Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 61 78 64 78 / 40 30 80 70 San Angelo 62 79 62 80 / 60 40 70 60 Junction 64 81 63 80 / 70 30 80 60 Brownwood 63 79 63 78 / 60 30 70 70 Sweetwater 60 77 62 79 / 30 30 80 60 Ozona 63 80 62 81 / 60 40 70 30 Brady 63 78 64 77 / 70 30 70 70 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...20  201 FXUS65 KTFX 191703 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1103 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of the region. - More widespread precipitation is expected on Wednesday through Thursday. - Temperatures will gradually warm through the week with the warmest temperatures expected this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 513 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026/ - Meteorological Overview After a cool start to the morning, temperatures will warm modestly into the 50s and 60s. Lingering moisture on the backside of the upper-level trough combined with modest instability will allow for pop-up showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon today. On Wednesday another upper-level trough will arrive bringing a chance for widespread wetting precipitation to the region. Snow will be generally confined to locations above 7,000 feet with the rest of the lower elevations seeing primarily rain through the event. As the upper-level trough starts to slowly exit the area towards the end of the week, temperatures will gradually start to warm up as upper-level ridging begins building over the western CONUS through the weekend. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: For today, hi-res models were showing pretty scattered 15-30% chances for precipitation across the region. In general, most locations will remain dry throughout the day except for where these pop-up showers end up developing. The highest chances for thunderstorm activity will be across North-Central Montana with any precipitation in Central and Southwest Montana expected to be more stratiform in nature. There is still good agreement for widespread wetting rains. The heaviest amounts are currently expected along a stretch from the Northern Rockies down through Central Montana including Great Falls and Helena into Lewistown. Probabilities of more than 0.25" of precipitation are currently sitting at 60-80% with a 20-40% chance of 0.5" or more. While precipitation amounts across the remainder of North-Central and Southwest Montana are not expected to be quite as high there is still at least a 40% chance for a tenth of an inch or more. -thor && .AVIATION... 19/18Z TAF Period Initial concern this TAF period will be for afternoon and early evening showers and isolated thunderstorms. Briefly gusty and erratic winds will accompany this showery activity. Concern then turns to a cold front moving from north to south late tonight into Wednesday, primarily impacting terminals over the plains. A mix of showery and stratiform precipitation will accompany the wind shift to a more northwesterly direction behind the front. Lowering ceilings over the plains Wednesday morning will result in increasing mountain obscuration. -AM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 64 40 58 38 / 40 20 80 70 CTB 62 38 55 34 / 20 10 80 40 HLN 65 38 64 38 / 20 20 60 90 BZN 62 34 63 35 / 10 20 40 90 WYS 54 26 57 30 / 10 10 40 80 DLN 61 34 62 35 / 10 20 20 70 HVR 68 40 62 36 / 30 30 50 10 LWT 60 36 58 35 / 30 20 80 80 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  513 FXUS61 KCLE 191709 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 109 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... There has been some added uncertainty with the severe weather potential this afternoon into the evening given the lingering cloud deck east of I71. There is high confidence that isolated storms will form into a line and push east, but how far east that line remains severe will be uncertain. In addition, dewpoints have been increased in the forecast to the mid 60s to low 70s given current observational trends. Best timing for severe potential remains between 5-10PM today. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) The entire area remains highlighted in Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather late this afternoon into the evening. Primary threat remains strong winds, although localized heavy rainfall and small hail are possible. 2) A big cool down is on the way for Wednesday and Thursday as high moves into the area. 3) An unsettled weather pattern with multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... This afternoon, a few light showers continue to linger across far NEOH and NWPA, keeping cloud cover over that portion of the area and limiting keeping destabilization at a minimum right now. However, across western counties, cloud decks have scattered out and temperatures have quickly rose into the low 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s, trending towards the low 70s. This has allowed for rapid destabilization with modeled soundings suggesting SB CAPE already in the 2000-2500 J/kg range and steepening low level lapse rates close to 8 C/km. The best shear with this event should remain north of the area with bulk shear values in the 15-25 knot range. Given these environmental conditions, would not be surprised to see some isolated storms develop this afternoon ahead of a main line expected to push east later this evening. DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg add confidence that the primary hazard concern with any convection with be strong to damaging winds. Cannot rule out some small hail, especially in the discrete cells ahead of the primary line. The tornado threat remains very low, although not zero, given the best shear is to the north of the area. Any quick spin ups that do occur would likely be embedded within the line of convection this evening. The final concern is locally heavy rainfall, especially in the most developed cells, that could lead to localized ponding on area roads. Modeled soundings suggest that brief training of cells could occur this evening along the boundary which would coincide in timing with an increased warm cloud layer and PWAT push. Overall concern for widespread flooding this evening remains low, but to highlight the potential WPC has included the entire area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) ERO today. KEY MESSAGE 2... Late tonight, a strong cold front is expected to move east across the area, marking a transition back to much cooler temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures are expected to be nearly 20 degrees cooler compared to today, only climbing into the upper 50s to low 60s as 850mb of 5-7C nudge south over the area. Some lingering showers will be possible across the southern tier of counties on Wednesday before the cold front fully pushes south and high pressure dries everything out through Thursday. Unfortunately, that means that Wednesday will be rather dreary as cloud coverage across the area lingers before peaks of sunshine return on Thursday. To compliment daytime highs, overnight lows Wednesday night will fall into the low to mid 40s and into the upper 40s to low 50s Thursday night. At this point, there is no concern for a late season frost. KEY MESSAGE 3... The upcoming holiday weekend will be fairly unsettled as multiple shortwave troughs push east across the region, bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms to the area as a near stationary boundary settles somewhere near the CWA. Initially, this boundary on Friday should begin to push north of the area, marking a transition back to warmer and more seasonable temperatures for the weekend. Then this boundary will ebb and flow over the CWA as the aforementioned troughs push east. As moisture increases over the area, multiple rounds of rainfall, potentially heavy at times, will result in possible flood concerns across area rivers and potential aerial flooding where rain persists. WPC has already highlighted the area in a Day 4 Marginal (level 1 of 5) ERO. The thunder potential should be isolated to daytime hours as diurnal instability adds additional support for shower development, but any severe potential remains uncertain at this time. Highs throughout the weekend will be in the 70s with mild overnight lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/... Scattered showers are ongoing this morning across parts of the area. There may be some brief restrictions and isolated lightning with this activity. Still expecting several hours of dry and VFR conditions later this morning and this afternoon before another round of convection this evening ahead of a cold front. Am expecting thunderstorms to impact most terminals this evening, with a brief period of vsby restrictions and potential for pockets of strong wind gusts over 40kt with the stronger storms. Still a bit of uncertainty with this later round of storms if shower activity earlier in the day is more significant or prolonged than expected, but still leaning towards the evening round of storms being the main show with this set of TAFs. Showers linger through most of tonight as the cold front crosses from northwest to southeast but with diminishing thunderstorm potential. Low MVFR to even some IFR ceilings likely arrive early Wednesday behind the cold front. Winds increase to 10-20kt with gusts 25-30kt later this morning and this afternoon. Winds shift north-northwest behind the cold front late tonight into early Wednesday. Outlook...Non-VFR continues into Wednesday in lower ceilings and possibly rain showers. Non-VFR possible in showers Friday into Saturday. && .MARINE... South-southwest winds continue until a cold front crosses the lake overnight tonight. Winds will generally be in the 10-20kt range, with gusts in the nearshore waters of 25-30kt likely this afternoon. Will go with a Small Craft Advisory from Erie County OH points west where winds will be gustiest...not quite as gusty farther east, though still on the breezy side. Waves of 1-3 feet in the nearshore will increase to 2-4 feet in the open waters today. Thunderstorms ahead of the cold front late this afternoon and evening may produce strong wind gusts over 35kt and locally up to 50kt over the lake. Winds whip around to the north- northeast late tonight into Wednesday at 10-17kt behind the cold front, keeping 1-3 foot waves going. Winds increase to 15-20kt and gradually turn more northeasterly into Thursday and easterly into Friday as strong high pressure passes north and northeast of the lake. East-northeast winds often perform well in these types of setups and have continued to inch up in the forecast, and a period of small craft/beach hazards headlines is looking increasingly likely for at least some of the nearshore waters late this week. && .CLIMATE... A record high temperature occurred at Erie, Pennsylvania on Monday. High temperatures today will approach record values at some locations again. The following are the records for May 19. Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie05-19 92(1996) 88(1964) 88(1998) 91(1911) 89(1934) 90(1996) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>144. && $$ DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...Sullivan  737 FXUS62 KMFL 191710 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 110 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 107 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 - High risk of rip currents along the east coast of South Florida will continue through at least Wednesday evening as breezy easterly winds prevail. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly across SW Florida again today. Frequent lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy downpours are the main threats. - Widespread Moderate HeatRisk for all urban areas through the end of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 107 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Overall forecast remains on track. Scattered thunderstorms over the interior and SW FL this afternoon into early evening. The scattered coastal showers and isolated thunderstorms expected late tonight and overnight. Lows tonight range from the upper 60s to lower 70s over inland locations, to upper 70s across the east coast metro. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Rinse and repeat weather pattern similar to what we've seen the last few days across South Florida. A cut-off upper low will continue to meander near the Bahamas, edging slightly closer to Florida through the middle of the week. This disturbance looks to advect a few vorticity impulses into the vicinity of Florida's eastern coastline. This will provide some extra forcing for isolated to scattered showers to develop along the instability ridden Gulfstream waters during the overnight and morning hours for both Tuesday and Wednesday. The 00z MFL sounding shows quite a moist environment, with a PWAT of 1.91 inches and high relative humidity values from top to bottom. Along with CAPE values near 2000 J/kg, this has allowed for some gusty showers to develop across Miami Dade over the last few hours. Light showers should continue through the early morning hours before activity then shifts to sea-breeze induced thunderstorms over interior and southwest Florida. Predominant easterly flow should once again keep the Gulf breeze pinned closer to the coastline, so highest PoPs and strongest storms will favor coastal Monroe and Collier counties for both today and Wednesday. Thermodynamics will be similar to the last few days, with steep low level lapse rates and surface based CAPE values up to 3000 J/kg. Weak forcing, weak steering flow, and weak shear, will make for most activity to be pulse-y and slow moving, with new updrafts mainly forming along collision boundaries. Model forecast soundings and upper level water vapor imagery seem to indicate that some increased mid-level dry air will work its way into the region over the next couple of days. This may be part of the reason as to why models have trended slightly drier for Tuesday's activity. This may also serve to suppress more mature storm growth, so confidence for any strong to severe thunderstorms is once again very low and most activity should remain relatively low topped. On the flip side, "if" thunderstorms grow big enough (and that's a big "if" given the weak mid-level lapse rates), the drier mid-level air could help induce a few stronger wind gusts, which is supported by DCAPE values near 750 J/kg. What is described above would also be true for Wednesday's activity, except conditions trend slightly drier with PWATs dropping into the 1.4 to 1.5 inch range. Overall, the main threats will be frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours. Rain amounts will generally be between 0.5 to 1.5 inches, with locally heavier amounts of 3 to 5 inches under stronger storms. Generally breezy easterly winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 28 mph across the region during the afternoon.High temperatures slightly above average, in the upper 80s to low 90s, will lead to widespread Moderate HeatRisk for all metro areas. Nighttime lows will remain in the mid to upper 70s near the coasts and lower 70s inland. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 208 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The pattern will remain generally unchanged for the latter part of the week and through the weekend, with upper level ridging extending across the Gulf and the aforementioned upper level low continuing to meander over the western Atlantic waters. Near the surface, an area of high pressure will remain in place over the western Atlantic waters and extending over the peninsula. This setup will help promote robust easterly flow across South Florida during this period, while also maintaining healthy moisture advection along the atmospheric column. Ensemble guidance places PWAT values during the period solidly near the climatological normals for this time of year (1.5- 1.7 inches) while model soundings show this moisture permeating the whole column (and not just the lower levels like was the case earlier this month). With prevailing easterly flow and ample moisture in place, chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain on the forecast each day, especially along the sea breeze boundaries each afternoon. Although some isolated activity will likely develop over the East Coast metro early each afternoon, the better chances for more widespread activity (in the 50-70% range) will be spread out across southwest Florida and the interior where the sea breezes are forecast to meet each day. Temperatures each day will continue to rise into the upper 80s (along the East Coast) and up into the mid 90s (across southwest FL), although some of the shower activity could help provide some brief, localized relief and help temper conditions. Overnight lows also look to remain elevated through the period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 107 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Easterly winds 10-15 kts through early this evening and then speeds subside to 5-10 kts overnight. Scattered thunderstorms over interior and SW FL this afternoon into early evening and then coastal showers and isolated thunderstorms late tonight and overnight across the east coast metro. && .MARINE... Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are expected to continue through the rest of today across the Atlantic waters due to persistent easterly winds of 15 to 20 kts. Winds look to weaken slightly for the latter half of the week. Isolated weak showers are possible for the Gulfstream waters through the morning each day this week. During the afternoon, thunderstorms will favor the Gulf coast and Gulf waters, where gusty and erratic winds will be possible with any storm. Atlantic seas will be 2-4 feet through the rest of the week, while the Gulf will remain 2 feet or less. && .BEACHES... Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Continued High Risk of Rip Currents for all Atlantic beaches through the middle of the week due to persistent easterly flow. Guidance is beginning to show that the risk of rip currents will start to taper off towards the latter half of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 77 87 77 88 / 20 30 10 10 West Kendall 74 89 74 90 / 20 40 10 20 Opa-Locka 77 89 77 90 / 20 20 10 10 Homestead 76 88 76 89 / 30 30 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 78 86 78 87 / 20 30 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 77 86 77 86 / 20 30 10 10 Pembroke Pines 78 90 78 91 / 20 20 10 10 West Palm Beach 77 86 77 87 / 20 20 0 20 Boca Raton 78 86 78 87 / 20 20 10 20 Naples 74 91 74 92 / 10 80 10 50 && .MFLWATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NMP LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...CMF  816 FXUS66 KLOX 191711 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1011 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED .SYNOPSIS...19/858 AM. There will some warming today and Wednesday with lighter Santa Ana winds. Beginning Thursday there will be a return to cooling May Grey conditions which will last through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...19/913 AM. ***UPDATE*** Light offshore flow continues this morning with still some breezy northeast winds, mainly in the LA mountains and the Santa Susanas. Gusts into the 30s are possible in those areas, but outside of that winds are expected to be 25mph or less. Winds shift around to west-southwest by afternoon in most areas except the higher mountains where light northeast flow will continue into Wednesday. The warming trend will continue today with most areas warming up by a few degrees over yesterday. Warmer valleys may touch 90 today while intermediate areas away from the coast will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. ***From Previous Discussion*** A return to onshore flow and a weak eddy will bring some low clouds to the coasts on Wednesday morning. Skies, otherwise, will be sunny. The gradients will be on the light side and there will be no wind issues. The coastal temps will not change much, but the rest of the area will see a couple more degrees of warming. A few 90 degrees readings are possible in the warmest vly locations. Continued onshore trends will bring moderate onshore flow to the area on Thursday. The marine layer clouds will respond in kind and most of the coasts and some of the lower vlys will wake up to low clouds. The onshore flow will also delay clearing to the late morning. There will be a little stronger seabreeze as well as a return to gusty afternoon winds in the Antelope Vly. A multi day cooling trend will kick off with max temps falling 1 to 3 degrees across the csts/vlys (max temps may rise another degree or two across the far interior) .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...19/1226 AM. May Grey will return during the xtnd period. At the upper levels there will be fairly weak flow. At the sfc there will be steadily increasing onshore flow. By the weekend there will be moderate to strong onshore flow. A more robust marine layer will likely develop each night through morning. The clouds will push a little deeper into the vly each day as well. By the weekend some beaches will struggle to clear. The increased onshore flow to the east will produce moderate southwest winds across the Antelope Valley and foothills during the weekend. Fridays will see the biggest drop in temps with most areas falling by 4 to 6 degrees. A few more degrees of cooling are slated for Saturday and then little change is forecast for Sunday and Monday's temps. Highs over the weekend will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s across the csts with upper 70s to mid 80s for the vlys. As is typical with strong onshore flow, the csts/vly temps will be below normal while the interior temps will be a few degrees over normal. && .AVIATION...19/1710Z. At 1616Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 ft deep, with an inversion up to 1400 ft and a maximum temperature of 20 C. High confidence in CAVU TAFs. There is a 15% chance of 6SM FU at KVNY due to Sandy Fire from 02Z-06Z Wednesday. KLAX...High confidence in TAF. VFR conditions are expected. However, 20% chance for MVFR VSBYs HZ 11Z-16Z Wednesday. There is a 15% chance of east wind component reaching 7-8 kts from 12Z-16Z Wednesday. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. No wind issues expected. && .MARINE...19/201 AM. For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels, except for localized pockets of near SCA NW winds during the afternoons and evenings. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. There is a 40 percent chance of SCA winds on Wednesay afternoon/evening. Otherwise through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. Local SCA winds may occur again later today and Wednesay evening off the coast of Point Dume, across the San Pedro Channel, and in the Santa Barbara Channel. Otherwise through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Rorke AVIATION...Black MARINE...Black/Schoenfeld SYNOPSIS...30 weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  985 FXUS61 KAKQ 191714 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 114 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated 18z Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Remaining hot and dry, with well above-normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. 2) Rain chances increase Wednesday night into Thursday morning across the north, and from Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning farther south. 3) After a cooler end to the work week, warmer conditions return for the Memorial Day weekend. However, unsettled conditions persist, with rain chances continuing each day through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining hot and dry, with well above-normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. Building ridging and minimal low-level moisture will maintain summer-like heat through midweek. Temperatures today will be similar to those of yesterday, with highs in the low to mid 90s, though slightly cooler along the immediate coast. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week as compressional heating maximizes ahead of an approaching cold front. Strong mixing and ongoing drought conditions will continue to allow early morning dewpoints to mix out by afternoon, falling back into the upper 50s to low 60s each day. This will keep heat indices close to actual air temperatures, maintaining dry conditions into Wednesday afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances increase Wednesday night into Thursday morning across the north, and from Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning farther south. By Wednesday afternoon, a cold front will approach the area and showers and storms are expected to develop, focusing along the pre-frontal trough to our northwest. Model trends continue to slow the arrival of the cold front, lagging into later Wednesday evening across the north, and Thursday morning south of US-460 into NE NC. 00z CAMs continue to show sparse convection only reaching northern and western portions of the area, likely staying out of the RIC metro through Wednesday evening. SPC has maintained the northwestern half of the area, including the RIC metro, in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for now, with the potential for damaging winds and large hail. The risk of severe storms looks marginal locally, with the best forcing and instability confined just to our N/NW. The concern remains that storms may dissipate before reaching the area, but they remain possible nonetheless, with the best chance north of RIC to the VA Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore. Farther south, given the previously referenced concerns, have lowered PoPs into slight to low-end chance range for south-central and southeast VA into northeast NC for Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Better chances over these areas hold off into Thursday afternoon and evening, albeit with a lesser severe risk due to weaker instability and available bulk shear. KEY MESSAGE 3...After a cooler end to the work week, warmer conditions return for the Memorial Day weekend. However, unsettled conditions persist, with rain chances continuing each day through early next week. A shortwave trough is progged to lift across the upper Midwest into eastern Canada late Wednesday into Thursday. This will serve to dampen the SE ridge, while allowing cool high pressure to settle over the Great Lakes and SE Canada. Meanwhile, the cold front pushes south of the area late Thursday and Friday. Increasing overrunning moisture and quickly rising PW values allow rain chances to ramp up quickly late Thursday and Thursday night, leaving an emerging cool air/CAD wedge setup for Friday, with highs in the 60s to 70s forecast. The parent high to the north is progressive, which should allow the wedge airmass to erode relatively quickly on Saturday. Broad SW flow should push the front back across our area Saturday as a warm front, with temperatures quickly returning above normal over the holiday weekend, though not quite as warm as what we are currently experiencing. Rain chances will be more convective/diurnally-driven over the weekend, with best chances likely in the afternoon and early evening each day. Thus, while some welcome rainfall is likely for much of the area, the holiday weekend is by no means shaping up to be a washout. Unfortunately, rainfall totals for the week do not look like the drought-busting rain we need. Multi-model ensemble guidance shows a mean of only 0.50-1.00" for the week. Note that with recent systems, the ensembles were quite bullish with precipitation totals and widely over-estimated multiple days out. Gradual warming is expected heading into early next week as mid-level ridging rebuilds east of the Rockies. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 110 PM EDT Tuesday... VFR conditions will persist through the 18z/19 TAF period. Skies remain mostly clear through a majority of the forecast period with high pressure remaining in control. Winds are out of the SW, averaging ~10 knots with occasional gusts of 15 to knots this afternoon. Winds diminish slightly tonight, with similar gusts returning Wednesday afternoon. Outlook: The next chance of rain and possible degraded flight conditions arrive with a cold front dropping across the region late Wednesday night into Thursday, with best chances of precipitation through Wednesday night north of RIC to SBY. Rain chances then increase over the rest of the area on Thursday, with sub-VFR (likely IFR) CIGs to persist in a cool air wedge airmass Thursday night and Friday. Flight restrictions likely continue into the weekend in the form of MVFR to IFR CIGs and potentially reduced VSBYs in any rain showers. && .MARINE... As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected across the local waters through at least mid-week with primarily southerly winds. - A front moves through late week, bringing the next chance at SCA conditions. High pressure remains centered near Bermuda this morning, extending across the Southeast. This pattern is typical of the summertime Bermuda High configuration and will continue today and into tomorrow. Current marine wind observation sites are measuring southwest winds of 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 20 kts. This stagnant pattern will allow winds to remain primarily SSW around 10 to 15 kt outside of the daily mid to late-afternoon nearshore seabreeze through Wednesday. The afternoon breeze will likely bring additional localized gusts of 15-20 kt to the lower Chesapeake Bay and nearshore ocean waters each afternoon before winds veer back offshore and diminish some overnight. This pattern will finally start to break down as a cold front approaches the area late Wednesday into Thursday. This cold front is currently forecast to cross the waters some time early Thursday morning with increasing NE winds late week. At this time, in-house wind probs suggest that even behind the front, only brief SCA conditions are possible (mainly in the Bay) and conditions may stay under SCA criteria through next weekend. Whether or not the aforementioned front actually moves through or stalls across the area will play an important role in the wind regime late week into the weekend. With the continuity of guidance showing the front stalling over the area, this outcome is looking more likely, though SCA conditions will still remain marginal. There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches (including Ocean City, MD) today, with a low risk elsewhere. The moderate rip current risk likely continues for the northernbeaches into Wednesday. With increasing winds and seas associated with a frontal passage on Thursday, all beaches will see a moderate rip current risk. && .CLIMATE... As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday... Richmond set a new record high Monday of 96 degrees. This broke the previous record of 95 degrees set in 1911. Another day of near-record to record-breaking heat is expected today, with record high minimum temperatures also possible. Record High Temps for 5/19 - 5/20 Record Record High/Year High/Year Location 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- Richmond 97 (1962) 97 (2022) Norfolk 96 (1880) 98 (1996) Salisbury 97 (2011) 98 (1911) Eliz. City 95 (1996) 98 (1996) Record High Min Temps for 5/19 - 5/20 Record Record High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- Richmond 71 (1997) 71 (2018) Norfolk 72 (2017) 73 (1996) Salisbury 70 (1929) 70 (2018) Eliz. City 72 (2018) 73 (2018) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KMC/MAM AVIATION...AJB MARINE...AJB/NB CLIMATE...MAM  977 FXUS64 KBRO 191714 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1214 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1209 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Key Messages: * Day-to-day or near day-to-day chances for showers and thunderstorms is expected through next weekend and possibly beyond amid a major shift in the weather pattern. * Strong to severe thunderstorms along with heavy rainfall and localized flooding is possible through next weekend. * Hot and humid conditions will take place once again on Tuesday; maximum heat indices between 105-111F degrees will result in widespread Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk. * A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect till 9 AM CDT Tuesday; a High Risk for Rip Currents is also in effect through at least Tuesday evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1106 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Hot temperatures featuring Moderate (Level 2 of 4) to Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk through Tuesday (possibly into Wednesday), and an increasingly unsettled weather pattern punctuating a significant pattern change from dry to wet remains to be the two main weather headlines through the forecast period. ...ACTIVE/WET WEATHER DEVELOPS THIS WEEK; MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE... Global computer and AI/ML models/ensembles continue to advertise a significant pattern change from dry to wet beginning this week. A split-flow 500 mb pattern featuring what will become an increasingly active and persistent southwest flow aloft sub-tropical jet or southern branch jet stream is in place. This will serve as a conduit for multiple impulses/perturbations tracking over the region over the next several days. Later in the week through next weekend, there are signs that mid-upper troughing along with multiple impulses/perturbations will undercut high pressure/ridging aloft. Closer to the sfc, a frontal boundary will sag southward across the U.S. before stalling and meandering to our north across the southern Plains. A better than normal jet structure will be in place through this week. Additionally, southerly flow near the sfc will yield a pool of deep tropical moisture helping to increase the atmospheric water content over the region through the week ahead. This is justified with sample maximum precipitable water (PWAT) values between 1.80-2.50 inches, some 1-3 STDEVs above normal and above the 90th percentile of sounding climatology for mid to late May. Furthermore, high instability values will be present through this week with steep mid level lapse rates between 6.5-8.0 C/km, SBCAPE values between 2,000-4,000 J/kg, MLCAPE values between 1,000- 2,000 J/kg, a moderately to very unstable atmosphere with Showalter values ranging between -2 and -6. All in all, the combination of a favorable mid-upper level 500 mb steering pattern, favorable jet stream dynamics, high atmospheric moisture content, and high instability will support a noticeable change to a wetter/active weather pattern this week and possibly beyond. This includes incessant day-to-day or near day-to-day chances for showers and thunderstorms through this week, and maybe through the remainder of May. The best chances for rain this week will be later in the week into next weekend. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible given the atmospheric and forcing ingredients highlighted above. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to have the northwestern half of our area under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday. This includes all of Zapata and Jim Hogg Counties, and most of Brooks and Starr Counties in it's latest SWODY2. Given the high atmospheric moisture content available, heavy rainfall and instances of flooding is possible through the week, especially later in the week. This is especially true for slow moving thunderstorms that repeatedly track over the same areas. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) continues to have the entire forecast area or all of Deep South Texas under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall in it's Day 4 (Thursday) and Day 5 (Friday) ERO. Through tonight, a thundershower or two is possible. Latest radar scans reveal a blossoming thunderstorm moving northeast off the slopes of the Sierra Madre with batches of showers further to the north and west. Will have to monitor trends through tonight. For now, we have low (20%) chance PoPs across much of the area. Should the thunderstorm to our southwest off the Sierra madre hold together, we may need to bump PoPs later tonight. For Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, several hi-res CAM guidances continue to advertise a squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms or MCS originating from central Texas and advancing southward through Deep South Texas late Tuesday into Wednesday between midnight and 9 AM Wednesday morning. Currently, we have low-medium (20-50%) chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This may need bumping up depending on things evolve. Again the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday, currently favoring Zapata, Jim Hogg, Starr, and Brooks Counties. Wednesday night through the early parts of next week, additional precipitation chances exists. During this timeframe, we could see another one or two squall lines or MCSs with a heavy rainfall threat move through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Wednesday night-Thursday night, we have 30-70% chances for showers and thunderstorms over the region. Friday night through Saturday night, we have widespread categorical chances ranging between 50-75%. Sunday through Monday, there's a 40-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms across the region. Finally, Monday night through Tuesday night, there will be low chances ranging between 20-30%. Through Saturday, quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) or rainfall amounts are expected to range between 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. The rain to come will certainly prove to be beneficial, helping to further improve the D1 (Moderate) to D2 (Severe) Drought status across the region. ...ANOTHER HOT DAY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MAJOR HEAT RISK... The other weather headline through Tuesday will be the heat! Global forecast models/ensembles continue to depict a sharp 588-591 dam sub- tropical heat ridge over the region. This feature will result in another day of hotter than normal temperatures on Tuesday, and maybe even extending into Wednesday. Similar to today, forecast high temperatures for Tuesday are expected to be in the mid 90s to lower 100s with the hottest temps west of IH-69C/US-281. Dewpoints in the mid 70s will result in max heat indices or apparent temperature values climbing to between 105-111F degrees on Tuesday. These values will once again yield Moderate (Level 2 of 4) to Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk. Cloud over will be a factor in these temperatures being realized. By Wednesday, the aforementioned heat ridge relaxes which should result in a slightly cooler day. Shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday night into Wednesday as well as cloud cover could also play a role in the slightly lower temperatures from Monday and Tuesday. Nonetheless, it will be another warmer than normal day with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s. With heat indices ranging between 100-108F degrees, Heat Risk scores will be mainly fall in the Moderate (Level 2 of 4) category over the region on Wednesday. Thursday through next Tuesday, high temperatures will range between the upper 80s to lower 90s. This largely will be attributed to the shower and thunderstorm chances during this timeframe. Tonight through Tuesday night, overnight lows are progged to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Wednesday night through next Sunday night, overnight lows are expected to be mainly in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 While VFR conditions will prevail at BRO and MFE there could be a mix with MVFR before all aerodromes fall to MVFR this evening. Southeasterly winds will gust between 25 and 30 kts through this afternoon before decreasing overnight. We are continuing to watch for a chance of showers and thunderstorms to move through late tonight though there is still low confidence on exact timing and whether this activity will make it this far south, therefore have not introduced and TS in this TAF package. If showers and thunderstorms do make it this far south could see some brief IFR/LIFR, most likely near daybreak. We will likely see some lower visibility near daybreak regardless of precip but stay within MVFR guidelines. && .MARINE... Issued at 1106 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect till 9 AM CDT Tuesday due to residual elevated wave heights. Outside of the threat for showers and thunderstorms, Tuesday through Wednesday, adverse (Small Craft Exercise Caution) conditions are likely. Again, outside of the threat for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through next Monday, marine conditions are expected to improve with moderate seas and low to moderate winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 92 80 91 / 10 10 10 30 HARLINGEN 78 92 76 92 / 20 10 10 40 MCALLEN 79 94 78 92 / 30 20 20 50 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 94 75 93 / 40 40 40 50 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 85 81 85 / 20 10 10 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 90 79 90 / 20 10 10 30 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...68  984 FXUS66 KSEW 191714 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 1014 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS... The weather pattern remains fairly steady with high pressure situated offshore through the week with morning clouds and afternoon sun. Temperatures will rise a bit each day through the end of the week before beginning to cool off this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Updated aviation discussion below. Rest of discussion remains valid at this time. 27 Upper-level pattern remaining mostly unchanged with troughing over the Great Basin and Intermountain West - a ridge remains just offshore the PNW. High clouds are currently streaming in under northwest flow aloft. Another round of patchy fog/low stratus is developing this morning but coverage won't be widespread. Low stratus/fog will give way to mid to high clouds and filtered sunshine this afternoon. A shortwave rounding the periphery of the ridge will increase slight (15-20%) PoPs, mainly across the mountains. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s across the interior with 50s along the coast. Overnight lows will fall into the 40s. Upper-ridging is likely to maintain through Thursday as conditions remain rather benign. Temperatures are to remain near-seasonal on Wednesday but warm readily into the 70s to near 80 F across the interior on Thursday. Coastal areas will see afternoon highs in the 60s with lows in the 40s area-wide. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Warmer conditions will continue into Friday before more robust onshore flow move in towards the weekend. Temperatures will top out Friday into the low to mid 70s. The ridge will flatten as the pattern turns more zonal over the weekend. This should help to not just start to cool temperatures, but also bring increased chance for widespread PoPs into early next week. 41 && .AVIATION... High pressure is anchored offshore with N/NW flow over western WA today. The low level flow remains onshore. A weak front will move inland this morning with IFR ceilings along the coast and MVFR conditions in the interior. Ceilings will gradually improve to low-end VFR this afternoon in the interior. Showers with a convergence zone possible late this afternoon and evening in the central sound. IFR to MVFR ceilings expected along the coast overnight into Wednesday morning. 33 KSEA...MVFR ceilings this morning with onshore flow. SW winds 5 to 8 kt. Clouds lifting to 4000-5000 ft this afternoon with showers in the vicinity 21-03Z. Winds turning northerly around 00-03Z. 33/Mazurkiewicz && .MARINE... Onshore flow will prevail this week with high pressure offshore and lower pressure inland. Expect diurnal westerly pushes through the strait of Juan de Fuca with highest wind and waves during the late afternoon and evening hours. 33 && .HYDROLOGY... The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated during this time as needed. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$  107 FXUS63 KDMX 191717 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1217 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Much cooler today through the end of the week with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Temperatures tonight reach the mid to upper 30s in northern Iowa with patchy frost possible there. - Rain chances return late Thursday into Friday. -Warming trend this weekend with 80s returning by Sunday through early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 220 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The surface low continues to move east across the area with associated rain pushing into eastern Iowa early this morning. While the bulk of the rainfall has come to an end, some wrap around light sprinkles may be possible in northern Iowa through today as the low continues to slide east. Today will be markedly cooler as much cooler air filters in behind the cold front. Temperatures early this morning are in the mid 40s across northwest Iowa with 50s central and southeast Iowa still in the mid 60s. That cooler air northwest will continue to spread across the state today and highs will remain in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds will also be brisk out of the northwest at 20-30 mph owed to a modestly enhanced pressure gradient across the area from the departing low and incoming high pressure, along with subsidence and cold air advection. Skies clear through the day as high pressure settles across the state. Will clear skies and light wind overnight temperatures are expected to fall off quickly overnight. Low temperatures in northern Iowa will fall to the mid to upper 30s which may result in patchy frost, which would impact those with sensitive plants. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 By Tuesday evening a large surface high pressure area will be building down the northern High Plains and on Tuesday night will settle across Iowa and Minnesota. This will lead to rapidly diminishing winds around sunset Tuesday and much cooler temperatures Tuesday night as winds go light or calm and skies clear out, especially near the Minnesota border closer to the center of the high and where chances for high cirrus clouds are lowest. The result is forecast low temperatures early Wednesday morning in the mid-to- upper 30s in our northern and western counties, but any frost potential will be dependent on skies remaining clear and winds becoming calm. This possibility will be better assessed tonight and tomorrow. From Wednesday through the end of this week a weak 500 MB low will meander across southwestern Canada, with cyclonic flow extending down across the U.S. Rockies and near Iowa. A series of shortwave impulses moving through the flow will result in a return of rain chances for our forecast area. Initially, on Wednesday, the proximity of the slowly departing surface high pressure area and associated dry air will inhibit any precipitation chances. By Thursday atmospheric moisture and instability will be gradually increasing however, and around Thursday night and Friday the most pronounced 500 MB trough will move overhead and bring higher rain chances (50-70%). In wake of that trough, next weekend, weak subsidence may follow along with weak surface riding, supporting mostly dry weather and much lower rain chances (10-20%). Also of note is a consistent signal for some degree of thermal ridging around Sunday into early next week, especially from the EC and GEM, lending confidence to warmer temperatures at the end of the current 7-day forecast. Climate Prediction Center outlooks also support a likelihood of warmer than normal temperatures heading into next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Low stratus clouds are blanketing the area with MVFR ceilings this afternoon. These will slowly rise this afternoon and eventually clear out late today or early tonight, though timing of the clearing is uncertain. Have indicated these trends in the 18Z TAFs, but amendments are possible as the day progresses based on satellite and surface observations. Once ceilings break up and/or rise above FL030, VFR conditions are then forecast for the remainder of the TAF period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hagenhoff LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...Lee  069 FXUS63 KDVN 191715 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1215 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A passing cold front this morning will bring about cooler weather through the mid to late week, with increasing rain chances again Thursday night through Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Another squall line that generally washes out as it enters and moves acrs the local fcst area this morning, and will account for some lingering patches of post-system stratiform rain and isolated thunder through 9 AM or so. Also some chance for fields of wake low winds gushing out the backside of the decaying precip but appears less extensive than the last two mornings. Seasonably robust cold front lurks upstream acrs central into northeast IA ATTM, with RAP/CAM timing blend having it crossing the MS RVR from 15-16z this morning. Then the story will be blustery post-frontal northwest winds, a stratocu deck, and temps falling into or held well down in the 60s when normal highs for this time of year are generally in the low to mid 70s. Some spotty light showers or sprinkles may get wrung out of the stratocu cloud deck at times today, but overall mainly dry after this morning. Tonight...Clearing and cooler with the arrival of a high pressure system acrs the upper MS RVR Valley. Low temps by Wed morning will look to range from the upper 40s in the southeast, to the low 40s northwest. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Wednesday and Thursday...The ridge will look to maintain fair wx acrs the region for Wednesday with some sunshine but below normal temps with 60s during the day and 40s at night. Thursday not the warmest of days as well, with east to northeasterly boundary layer flow back from the ridge complex migrating eastward acrs the GRT LKS. The latest suite of ensembles and upper jet trends suggest longer wave troffiness to establish acrs the Rockies into the late week. As this upper trof tries to pivot northeastward with some moisture return looking to stream up off the western Gulf(but also signs of this feed getting interrupted to the south acrs the southeast plains over to the TN Valley), there may be increasing chance for some showers by late Thu or Thu night. A probable slow down with this process may then target more of a Friday into early Saturday window for precip chances. Friday through Monday...If the above mentioned scenario occurs, Friday may be mostly cloudy and continued cool with shower chances extending into Friday night. A thunderstorm also possible during this timeframe but support for much of any severe threat does not appear to be there heading into the weekend. Some temperature moderation still looks to be on tap over the weekend back to normal or even a bit above normal by the end of the period. Trying to time another passing trof with the next precip chance uncertain at this point but a few favorable ensemble solutions suggest there could be a chance on Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Cold front is east of the Mississippi with MVFR CIGS all across Iowa. Wind gusts up to 27 knots will create considerable low level mechanical turbulence through sunset. Very short term models have CIGS raising to VFR too quickly and the 18z TAFs delay the arrival of VFR until after 00z/20. After 00z/20 wind will diminish to around 10 knots and become more northerly as high pressure builds into the Midwest. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM...12 AVIATION...08  138 FXUS63 KGLD 191718 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1118 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Occasional shower chances through the rest of the week, perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 220 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Frost Advisory: In the advisory area, a short period of frost is possible an hour or two on either side of sunrise this morning, when pervasive low ceilings (2000-3000 ft AGL at 0845Z) will begin to lift/scatter. Observational trends suggest that Yuma/Kit Carson counties are most at-risk for frost (relatively speaking). Low confidence in frost development, especially south of Hwy 36 where breezy (10-20 mph) north winds are more likely to persist through sunrise. Today: ~1025 mb surface high pressure in Wyoming at 06Z will build ESE over central Nebraska and north-central Kansas today. Expect decreasing cloud cover by sunrise and mostly clear skies by late morning as northerly low-level flow advects a drier airmass southward into the Tri-State Area. Winds will decrease to 5-10 mph by late morning to early afternoon (~16-19Z).. in concert with a weakening MSLP-850 mb height gradient. Clear skies / unimpeded insolation will foster a warming trend with highs ranging from the upper 50's to upper 60's. Tonight: Light N winds will shift to the E (this evening) and SE (early Wed morning) as the surface high over central Nebraska and north-central Kansas progresses slowly E toward northwest Missouri/western Iowa.. leading to modest low-level moisture return (850 mb dewpoints rising from -3 to 3C) by sunrise in eastern CO and adjacent KS border counties. Strengthening mid- level (700-500 mb) warm advection in advance of an upper level wave.. a modest 250-350 mb trough / shear-axis progressing eastward from the 4-Corners to the central Rockies.. will foster increasing mid-level cloud cover (ceilings at/above ~7,000 ft AGL) this evening and overnight. Despite a modest increase in low-level moisture and an increasingly upslope component to low- level flow in eastern CO, guidance suggests that weak/neutral low-level thermal advection will be insufficient for low stratus development, and that.. mid-level warm advection, in of itself, will likely be insufficient to produce measurable precipitation (i.e. anything beyond virga/sprinkles) prior to sunrise. Expect overnight (Wed morning) lows in the upper 30's to lower 40's. Wednesday: Showers are possible over portions of the area, mainly west and north of Goodland during the late morning and early afternoon when/where mid-level warm advection will be strongest; enough to capitalize on/utilize modest elevated instability (~100-250 J/kg MUCAPE). Expect broken/overcast cloud cover over most or all of the area and ~10-20 mph SE winds with highs in the upper 50's to mid 60's. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 255 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Thursday will see a stronger disturbance move out of the northern Rockies into western Colorado by the afternoon, then moving across the area Thursday night. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase once again. Instability will be limited by cloud cover, and models showing only weak SBCAPE of around 500 j/kg in the afternoon, mainly in Colorado. Deep layer shear will increase to 30-50 kts by 00z and may compensate somewhat for the weak instability in Colorado, where a marginally severe storm may be possible through the early evening before loss of heating. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through Thursday night as the upper wave makes its way across the area. Additional rainfall amounts Thursday night are generally between 0.25" - 0.50", though locally higher amounts over 1" are possible. Temperatures on Thursday could remain in the 50s, especially north of Interstate 70, where clouds persist through the day, with perhaps 60s further south or west with limited clearing. Friday, our region is forecast to be under a weak southwest flow with a weak trough west of the Rocky Mountains. There is also a surface low forecast to set up somewhere in southwest Kansas. Ensembles do not fully align on the placement of this surface low. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s to low 70s. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue throughout the day as embedded shortwaves pass through the region. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are 30-60% increasing from southwest to northeast. The environment is forecast to be moderately unstable with CAPE values generally between 500-1000 J/kg for the region. However, lingering cloud cover will likely keep the environment capped, reducing the risk for severe weather. If thunderstorms are able to form, small hail could occur with stronger storms. Skies will clear out Saturday and begin a slight warming trend through the beginning of the work week. High temperatures are forecast in the 70s for Saturday and the 80s for Sunday and Monday. Saturday will have a 25% chance for showers and thunderstorms for the southeast county warning area (CWA) from weak shortwave passages. After Sunday, we transition to more of a ridge pattern, so expect primarily sunny skies and gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoons for our Colorado counties. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1117 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Mid and high clouds will gradually increase tonight with scattered light showers in the area by 12z Wednesday morning. No impacts are expected at this time at either terminal. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...Rhoades AVIATION...024  222 FXUS61 KRNK 191720 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 120 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated. High temperature forecasts were lowered for Thursday and Friday as the wedge looks to be more prominent during this time period. Most guidance has come in much cooler than the NBM, and this has been a trend with past wedge cases this year. Further lowering or possible slight increases of temperatures may be needed for Thursday and Friday as model guidance gets a better handle on the pattern. Overall, limited changes were needed. A cold front is still expected to arrive on Wednesday resulting in a chance of showers/storms. Rain chances continue through weekend and into early next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1: A heat wave continues into tomorrow with record- breaking to near record-breaking heat possible through tomorrow. Cooler weather is expected late week into Memorial Day weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple opportunities for precipitation through the weekend beginning with a cold front tomorrow. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A heat wave continues with record-breaking heat possible through Wednesday. Cooler weather late week into Memorial Day weekend. Southerly flow will persist across the Eastern CONUS through tomorrow due to a large Bermuda high in the western Atlantic. 500mb heights will continue to remain elevated tomorrow ahead of the cold front. With the cold front and associated showers/thunderstorms not expected to reach the area until late in the afternoon and evening, high temperatures are forecast to reach the mid to upper 90s east of the Blue Ridge, and mid to upper 80s west of the Blue Ridge. With more scattered cu and upper level cirrus from showers and thunderstorms, temperatures are expected to be a little lower tomorrow compared to today. Although heat indices will not be dangerously high during this heat wave, it has been nearly a year since temperatures have been over 90 degrees for several days in a row. Stay hydrated, limit outdoor activity, and wear light and loose fitted clothing to help reduce the risk of heat illnesses. Relief from the heat arrives by Thursday, once the cold front moves past the area, with much cooler weather and highs in the 60s/70s the remainder of the work week and into the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple opportunities for precipitation through the weekend beginning with a cold front on Wednesday. On Wednesday, a cold front is expected to approach the region from the northwest as an upper level trough and associated surface low pressure system slide east through southern Quebec and Ontario. The lagging cold front looks to provide some forcing for shower and thunderstorm activity, with modest deep layer shear in the 20-30 knot range Wednesday afternoon. This amount of deep layer shear combined with instability values in the 500-1000 J/Kg will likely lead to some multicellular clusters of thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening across the region. With these shear and instability values, some hail and damaging wind gusts can't be ruled out across the area. With this potential, a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) remains in place to account for severe weather potential across portions of Virginia on Wednesday afternoon/evening. By Thursday, the cold front looks to become quasi-stationary across Virginia and the Tennessee valley. As this occurs, high pressure looks to push across the Great Lakes region leading to east/northeast flow across the forecast area. This will lead to some isentropic ascent across the area as warm moist air from the south rides up over this cool but shallow pocket of air at the surface. With stable air at the surface, the threat for severe weather looks to be minimal; however,shower activity looks very likely with rain forecast throughout the day areawide. A few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out, with elevated instability on the order of 100-500 J/Kg forecast between the 700-500mb layer from CAM guidance like the HRRR and NAMNEST. Wedging looks to persist on Friday as the surface high pressure over the Great Lakes looks to slide northeast towards the Quebec/Ontario border. This will maintain wedging areawide as a surface low develops across the central Mississippi valley. With upper level ridging and associated surface high pressure maintaining dominance over the western Atlantic, continued warm moist air is expected to be advected north into the region through the weekend. A warm front associated with the aforementioned surface low pressure system looks to push north through the weekend; however, with the high pressure over eastern Canada forecast to settle into the Northeast by the weekend, wedging does not look to erode until possibly early next week. With the aforementioned moisture advecting north along this wedge, light to moderate rainfall associated with isentropic lift looks to persist through the holiday weekend and into early next week. While this may ruin outdoor holiday weekend plans, it will hopefully bring much needed rainfall to the region at a steady enough rate to provide some agricultural and drought relief to the area. Although repeated rainfall looks to occur into early next week, widespread convectively enhanced rainfall is not looking very likely, therefore flooding potential remains very localized. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to continue through Wednesday midday, as high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft keep the weather dry and quiet. There are very low chances for a couple showers to pop up along the mountains this afternoon, but coverage would be very isolated at best as the 500mb ridging continues to build and suppresses most precipitation and convective potential. Will see the development of scattered afternoon cumulus along and west of the mountains today, but cloud bases will be generally 7kft or higher. Winds will be southwesterly today, 10 knots or less, on the higher end of that range in the Piedmont and lower in the mountains, with the occasional gusts 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon hours, then decreasing during the evening and overnight hours. By mid morning Wednesday, winds over the mountains will become more westerly, still southwesterly in the Piedmont. Will see cloud cover increase and bases lower ahead of a cold front, which will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area Wednesday afternoon/evening, with precipitation chances increasing after 18Z Wednesday. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening with the passage of a cold front. Rain showers and thunderstorm chances continue through the end of the week as the front slows down over the Mid Atlantic, which will lead to periods of sub-VFR heading into the weekend. Note: Bluefield (KBLF) ASOS is currently experiencing a technical outage due to a major power supply failure. Replacement parts have been ordered. ETA of repair is currently unknown. AMD NOT SKED is being appended to its TAF. && .CLIMATE... Record-breaking heat is possible today and Wednesday. Here are the current records and our current forecast. Tuesday, May 19, 2026 Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Forecast High Roanoke 96 in 1962 69 in 2022 95 Lynchburg 93 in 1962 66 in 2022 95 Danville 95 in 1962 69 in 1962 96 Bluefield 89 in 1911 66 in 1977 86 Blacksburg 91 in 1911 61 in 1938 90 Wednesday, May 20, 2026 Station Hi Max T Hi Min TForecast High Roanoke 98 in 1934 70 in 1998 94 Lynchburg 96 in 1941 68 in 1902 94 Danville 97 in 1996 68 in 2018 96 Bluefield 87 in 1996 66 in 1996 82 Blacksburg 90 in 1934 66 in 1893 88 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EB AVIATION...AS CLIMATE...RCS  185 FXUS62 KTAE 191719 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 119 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 - Hot temperatures are expected through late week. There is a high chance of highs at or above 90 across the area with the Florida Big Bend having a low chance of highs at or above 95. The heat may affect those who are sensitive, especially without cooling/hydration. - Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms continue through the next few days with coverage increasing this weekend. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with any stronger storms that develop. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through next Monday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The region remains on the western periphery of the Bermuda ridge with the surface high meandering in the western Atlantic. Aloft, mid/upper ridge arcs from the southern Gulf northeast to off the Atlantic coast while an upper low is situated in the Bahamas. Further west, longwave troughing extends through the Rockies into the eastern Pacific. In between the trough and ridge is a cold front stretching southwest from the Great Lakes to western Texas. Ridging will remain in place through this week despite the upper low trying to make it to the southeast coast then ridging will strengthen as the upper low translates south into the Caribbean. The central CONUS trough tries to move east but is essentially blocked by the upper ridge with shortwaves riding within the longwave flow over the ridge into southern Canada. The aforementioned cold front stalls in northern Alabama and Georgia Thursday then pushes north Friday and gradually dissipates this weekend. Around our neck of the woods, PWATs are around 1.2-1.3 inches today and Wednesday with limited 850-700mb moisture and stronger drier air aloft from 700-500mb. This will lead to less coverage of convection (20-40%) each afternoon, less cloud cover, and above normal high temperatures. Highs will be in the low 90s and pushing mid 90s in some locations which will set heat index values in the mid to upper 90s and close to 100F. PWATs begin a gradual increase Thursday though convection appears limited to the east coast seabreeze. Friday into the weekend, the western Atlantic high pressure shifts eastward with not as much dry mid level air as in mid week. PWATs increase to 1.7+ inches which, along with surface winds becoming more southerly, should increase seabreeze and diurnally driven convection each day. Rainfall chances increase to 40-60% heading into the weekend. With the added rainfall and potential cloud cover, high temperatures won't be as hot with readings in the upper 80s to low 90s. However, with the added moisture, heat index values will still run in the mid to upper 90s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 There is a small chance for a few showers or thunderstorms across the FL Panhandle this afternoon, but confidence in impacts to terminals is very low. There is also a chance for MVFR to briefly IFR conditions overnight across GA, but confidence is too low to include for now. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 High pressure will be the dominate weather feature across the northeast Gulf waters through the period producing light to occasionally moderate southeast to south winds and one to three foot seas into the first half of the upcoming weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Good dispersions are expected the rest of the week, though a few pockets of high dispersions may occur Thursday and Friday, as mixing heights will range 5500-7000feet and transport winds of 10 mph. Moisture will continue to filter into the area keeping afternoon humidities above 40% each day. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible along the afternoon sea breeze. Some of these storms may produce gusty, erratic winds as well as frequent lightning strikes. Chances for rain gradually increases each day and especially into this upcoming weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Isolated to scattered storms will be possible each day through the next week, however, better chances will reside beginning this weekend. These could produce locally heavy downpours, which may lead to some nuisance flooding, mainly in urban or poor drainage areas. However, widespread flooding concerns are not expected. Extreme to exceptional drought continues across the area. While the rain is beneficial, significant improvement in drought conditions is not expected. For more information on local drought impacts, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 70 92 70 93 / 0 10 10 10 Panama City 71 87 70 87 / 0 20 0 0 Dothan 70 91 69 91 / 0 20 10 10 Albany 69 92 69 91 / 0 10 0 10 Valdosta 67 92 69 93 / 0 0 0 10 Cross City 67 93 69 94 / 10 10 10 20 Apalachicola 74 85 71 85 / 0 10 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM....Scholl AVIATION...Merrifield MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...Scholl  284 FXUS63 KOAX 191721 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1221 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler weather continues with the potential for morning frost for northeast Nebraska on Wednesday. - Shower/thunderstorm chances return Wednesday night into Thursday continuing on/off through Friday. - Trend back toward warmer temperatures over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Today and Tonight... Northerly winds behind yesterday's cold front yielded cooler temperatures and gradually clearing skies as high pressure shifted into the Central Plains. Overnight, temperatures dipped into the mid 40s as winds gusted out of the north at 20 to 30 mph. By noon, temperatures had reached the mid 50s. Skies will clear through the evening in northeast Nebraska, before scattered cloud cover begins to build back in early Wednesday morning. Under the high pressure and mostly clear skies, temperatures will drop well below normal overnight. Lows are expected to bottom out in the low 40s in far southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa, and the low to mid 30s across northeast Nebraska. Light winds combined with the cool temps could lead to areas of frost over northeast Nebraska, especially in low lying areas. Therefore, a Frost Advisory has been issued for locations along and north of a line from Columbus to Fremont, NE, to Soldier, Iowa. Wednesday through Thursday... High pressure slides east of the forecast area Wednesday, as a shortwave ripples out of the Rockies. Temperatures will rise back into the upper 50s and low 60s Wednesday and Thursday. Lows will remain slightly warmer than Wednesday morning, under southerly return flow, only dipping into the low and mid 40s. A few showers will sneak across the forecast area with the advancing shortwave Wednesday night through Thursday. While a few rumbles of thunder may be possible, forecast soundings indicate little to no instability available with cooler temperatures, likely precluding the chance for strong or severe storms. Thursday Night and Beyond... An upper low will drop south out of Canada into the Central Plains Thursday night and Friday, bringing increasing chances for showers and storms through the end of the week. While current model solutions keep the more potent instability to our south over Kansas and Oklahoma, variations remain in the timing and track of this system. As such, it will be worth keeping an eye on for severe potential, as solutions come into better agreement. Although we may have to contend with ongoing convection and cloudy skies, southerly low level flow will draw slightly warmer temperatures into the region Friday, allowing highs to reach the mid 60s. A cold front looks to pass through the region late Friday/early Saturday, but is quickly followed by a ridge building into the desert southwest. This will push warmer air back into the plains for the upcoming weekend. The current forecast calls for highs into the low 70s on Saturday and upper 70s to low 80s Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR cloud cover will continue to slowly retreat to the east, with KOMA scattering to VFR by 20Z this afternoon. Winds will remain breezy out of the northwest today, with gusts up to 20 to 25 kts. Wind speeds dip below 12 kts this evening, becoming light and variable overnight. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>044. IA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for IAZ043. && $$ DISCUSSION...KG AVIATION...KG  210 FXUS65 KGJT 191720 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1120 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freezing temperatures will impact the lower basins of northwest Colorado and northeast Utah Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Freeze Warnings are in effect for both mornings. - Temperatures will start to warm Tuesday onward, finally reaching near-to-above normal levels Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1002 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 FREEZE WARNINGS IN EFFECT: Radar returns are diminishing across the area though a stray shower along the I-70 corridor and areas just north can't be ruled out. Clearing skies will allow temperatures to drop thanks to the cold front that passed through yesterday. Freeze Warnings remain in effect for the Uinta Basin and northern valleys. Portions of the I-70 corridor may reach freezing or just below but coverage and timing won't last long enough to warrant any highlights there. Same for the southern valleys. The Freeze Watch for Tuesday night into Wednesday has been upgraded to a Warning with this evening's package for the northern valleys as models have not deviated from sub-freezing temperatures there. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER, SLOW WARMUP: An upper level trough will remain draped over the area through the end of the week but with drier air moving in, little in the way of precip is expected. Might see an odd shower over the higher terrain but for the most part we can expect partly cloudy skies as below normal highs Tuesday and Wednesday reach normal values towards the end of the week and above normal highs heading into the weekend. The next chance for precipitation looks to be Thursday afternoon through Friday morning as a system drops down from the north. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1117 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Moisture trapped in the higher elevation valleys has kept low stratus in place through midday. For KEGE and KASE, this stratus isn't likely to lift above ILS breakpoints through the next 24 hours. For other terminals, stratus will lift in the next 1-3 hours, if it hasn't already, and will remain as mid to high level clouds through 06z. After this point, low stratus is expected to redevelop across the area, with some locations dropping below breakpoints, at least periodically. Southwesterly afternoon winds will gust to around 20 knots before becoming light and terrain driven after 03z. VFR conditions will prevail, but drops to MVFR under low ceilings will be possible, mainly after 00z this evening. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ001-002. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BGB/TGJT AVIATION...TGJT  146 FXUS65 KRIW 191719 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1119 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Conditions will be dry and temperatures rebound today and Wednesday, but daytime highs remain well below normal. The arrival of another weather system Thursday cools temperatures a few degrees and provides another round of precipitation. - Widespread precipitation is expected Thursday, with upslope areas like Cody and Lander having the best chances for snow accumulation during the day. - Early indications point to a warm and dry Memorial Day holiday weekend with widespread 75 to 85 degree daytime highs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Areas of clouds still linger over central and southern portions of the CWA this morning, as expected. Low clouds have developed in the Upper Green River Basin, in the wake of the residual snow that fell through Monday evening. Low clouds/fog is also expected to develop near Pathfinder Reservoir in southern Natrona County as well as far eastern Sweetwater County near Wamsutter and Creston Junction. These clouds are expected to last through mid-morning. Travelers on I-80 and US-189/191 should exercise caution due to the reduced visibility. Otherwise, clouds will continue to scatter out through the rest of the morning with partly cloudy skies by 18Z. There is a 20-30% chance for fog/low clouds to develop in the Wind River Basin and areas near Casper. Cumulus clouds will begin to develop over the western mountains after 18Z, with isolated virga showers possible over northern portions of Yellowstone NP, the Cody Foothills, Hoback Junction and Lander/Fort Washakie. Temperatures will be about 10 to 20 degrees below normal today, with sub-freezing temperatures expected again tonight for most areas except northern portions of the Bighorn Basin. The warming trend continues Wednesday, but temperatures stay below normal for central and southern portions of the CWA. Conditions will be dry for most areas, with showers possible over far northern portions irt the next storm system approaching the Cowboy State from the north. Precipitation chances will be confined to northwestern portions Wednesday night, with snow levels between 7000 and 8000 ft, as the storm drops southward. The associated cold front will drop southward over the CWA through the overnight hours, extending from Buffalo to Kemmerer by sunrise Thursday morning. The front will then slowly push through Natrona and Sweetwater counties through the rest of the day. Most of the precipitation with this storm will occur along and behind of the front, being widespread across the CWA through the day Thursday. Rain could change over to snow along and north of a Meeteetse-to-Lovell line after 15Z, as the cold core from the storm pushes into the Bighorn Basin. The challenge will be if snowfall rates will be heavy enough to overcome the high May sun angle. Otherwise, any snow is likely to stay in grassy areas through the day. There could be a similar change over later in the afternoon at Lander. Both of these locations (mainly Cody and Lander) will have a good upslope component with north- northeast winds. There could be a 3 to 5 hour window for snow accumulation between 23Z and 04Z (5pm to 10pm), as the sun begins to wane in the evening. A leeside low will develop over the Black Hills around this time, generating a line of showers and thunderstorms over western portions of SD and NE. Drier air will quickly push in over western portions of the CWA as the storm moves over the aforementioned areas through the rest of the night into Friday morning. Precipitation will quickly end from west to east after 03Z as a result of the storm becoming better organized over SD/NE. However, precipitation looks to linger over Johnson and Natrona counties through the rest of the night. Rain or a rain/snow mix is likely at this time, with snow levels as low as 6000 ft. Initial snowfall amounts around 6 inches are forecasted over the Absaroka and Wind River Mountains and 6 to 10 inches over the northern half of the Bighorns. Temperatures rebound more quickly on Friday, staying at or slightly below normal as the storm quickly exits over the Plains. A pleasant holiday weekend is shaping up, with highs in the 70s and 80s by Memorial Day. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1119 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Dry and VFR flight conditions are forecast through 18Z Wednesday. Diurnal mid-level clouds will increase in coverage through the afternoon hours. Mid-level cloud cover decreases after sunset and increases in coverage again Wednesday morning. These clouds will cause frequent mountain top obscurations. There is a 10% chance of a light rain shower around KCOD and KLND between 20Z and 02Z, with no impacts expected. However, the most likely scenario is that it will not reach the ground and remain as virga. Winds largely remain 10 kts or less at most terminals. KCPR and KRIW could see winds between 10 kts and 15 kts. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for WYZ005-006-011-016>020. && $$ DISCUSSION...LaVoie AVIATION...Gerhardt  342 FXUS61 KBUF 191722 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 122 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes made from the previous forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Widespread showers and thunderstorms to arrive this evening into overnight, with a few storms having the potential to reach severe criteria (Slight Risk for Severe Weather Today and Tonight). 2) Drier and much cooler conditions arrive in the wake of the cold front Wednesday afternoon and last through Friday, before the potential for unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread showers and thunderstorms to arrive this evening into overnight, with a few storms having the potential to reach severe criteria (Slight Risk for Severe Weather Today and Tonight). Mid-level ridge axis will depart east today, allowing for the next shortwave trough to pass northeastward out of the base of the longwave trough placed over the western half of the CONUS. Meanwhile, an associated surface low, currently over Lake Superior this morning will progress northeast across Ontario and eventually into Quebec today and tonight, where it will drag its cold front across the Great Lakes, arriving to Western New York around 2AM to 3AM. However ahead of the front's arrival, Expect strong to severe storms to spread from west to east around 5PM to 7PM this evening. CAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg (especially earlier in the evening), combined with 25-35 knots of 0-6km shear will nurture the potential for damaging wind gusts, which will be the main hazard type. Though large hail and an isolated tornado can't be ruled out as the forecast profiles continue to highlight "fat" CAPE soundings along with widespread 0-3km SRH values of 200-300 m^2/s^2, with localized pockets of 300-400 m^2/s^2 across far western NY. This all being said, the Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight most of the forecast region under a Slight Risk (Risk level 2 of 5), with the best window for severe weather occurring between 6-7PM this evening through 1-2AM tonight. Forecast confidence waivers some, due to the time of arrival with the activity being during a gradual loss of daytime heating, which creates the question whether or not the line of activity will keep up its intensity, especially later in the evening. Current thinking continues to support the line arriving in western New York, before splitting into two distinct areas, one passing north into the North Country where it will become less potent, and the other segment diving east-southeast across the western Southern Tier before it gradually wanes overnight. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier and much cooler conditions arrive in the wake of the cold front Wednesday afternoon and last through Friday, before the potential for unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend. In the wake of the passing cold front Wednesday morning, cold air and surface high pressure will side across the region for the later half of the week, supporting mainly cool and dry weather. The coolest day will be Thursday with many locations remaining in the 50s for highs. There will then be a slow rebound in temperatures heading into the holiday weekend, with highs ranging in the 60s and a few locations reaching the low 70s. While temperatures will begin to rebound, an area of low pressure will approach the region from the southwest, supporting the return of unsettled weather for the holiday weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Morning showers have dissipated within the last few hours, leaving behind partly cloudy skies across the eastern Lake Ontario region this afternoon. Despite the cloud cover, ceilings remain VFR. Clouds will continue to disperse for the next few hours, supporting VFR conditions to prevail. A patch of mid-level cumulus will brush across WNY towards the Genesee Valley in the next few hours, though flight conditions will remain VFR. Otherwise outside of the clouds, it is quite breezy today as the area lies between exiting high pressure and an incoming cold front. Winds are gusting between 20 to 25 knots regionwide, with a localized maxima of up to 30 knots across the Niagara Frontier. As previously hinted at, a cold front will trudge east this afternoon sparking a line of prefrontal showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are favorable enough to support storms to become severe and capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and an isolated tornado. Storms are expected to arrive across far Western New York around 23Z to 00Z and make their way east across the region, with activity ending between 05Z and 06Z. Expect localized LIFR/IFR flight reductions within any of the stronger storms. In the wake of the cold front, ceilings will lower to IFR/MVFR during the later half of the night. Return of surface high pressure Wednesday will support all TAF sites to return to VFR by the afternoon. Outlook... Wednesday Night through Friday...VFR. Saturday and Sunday...Potential for low end VFR/MVFR due to a low pressure system introducing rain to the region from the south. && .MARINE... Pressure gradient between exiting high pressure and an approaching cold front today is currently supporting the moderate southwesterlies and Small Craft Advisory criteria waves on the western end of Lake Ontario this afternoon. There will be a brief lull in the wind and wave action tonight, before winds shift to the northwest and bring another round of Small Craft Advisory criteria Wednesday. Winds on Lake Erie will be somewhat lighter, but still strong enough to produce a moderate chop today through Wednesday. Additionally, just ahead of a cold frontal passage this evening into overnight, expect showers and embedded thunderstorms to pass across the lakes producing damaging winds with a possibility of large hail. Winds will then begin to relax as high pressure returns Wednesday night and Thursday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LOZ042. && $$ DISCUSSION...EAJ AVIATION...EAJ MARINE...EAJ  344 FXUS65 KPSR 191722 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1022 AM MST Tue May 19 2026 .UPDATE...18Z Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - A broad scale troughing pattern will persist over the western U.S. through the end of the week, with a slow warming trend, but overall near normal temperatures. - Dry conditions, with no threat of rain, and seasonal afternoon breezes are expected through the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A broad trough, with a few weak shortwaves swinging through, will persist across the Southwest through Thursday with rather benign Spring-like weather conditions expected. There will be a slow rise in temperatures as 500mb heights slowly rise despite the lingering trough. High temperatures this afternoon will be around 5 degrees warmer than yesterday, with lower deserts forecast to reach the lower 90s. Normal highs this time of year are in the middle-90s, which the lower deserts will return to tomorrow and Thursday as warming steadily continues. Mornings will remain pleasantly cool, mostly in the upper 50s and 60s. Scattered high clouds will be pulled northeastward across the Desert Southwest today through early tomorrow and another weak shortwave from the northwest will bring some high clouds for Thursday. The high clouds will not be too optically thick, so there will still be plenty of sun to go around. Otherwise, very dry conditions can be expected over the next three days, with afternoon humidity levels falling below 15% nearly everywhere, and there is no shot at any rain. Aside from some breezy northerly winds across southeast CA and the Lower Colorado River this morning (gusts up to 20-30 mph), driven by strong pressure rises over NV, winds each day will mostly follow seasonal trends; light winds during the overnight and morning hours and modest upslope breezes in the afternoons with gusts up to 15-25 mph. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The slow warming trend is forecast to continue through Friday and this coming weekend. Global ensemble guidance supports the large- scale synoptic pattern across the west finally evolving out of the current state, with the strong blocking ridge near B.C. Canada giving way/weakening as a strong low traverses across Alaska. This change will result in at least a temporary de-amplification of the pattern across the western CONUS for the weekend and a trend toward positive 500mb height anomalies with brief anticyclonic flow developing over the Desert Southwest. This trend will lead to high temperatures reaching into the upper 90s by Friday and pushing 100 degrees by Sunday - Monday (30-60% odds of >=100). This pattern shift will also allow for some moisture to seep into AZ, from the southeast and with evening gulf surges, as global guidance shows a slow uptrend in PWATs Friday through the weekend. This may end up leading to some AZ high terrain afternoon convection, which is supported by some low-end NBM PoPs this weekend (<25% over eastern AZ mountains). The odds are a little higher Monday with the potential for a weak Pacific low to move inland from the west, but this is about all that can be anticipated this far out. This is climatologically the driest time of year for the AZ and SoCal lower deserts, so it is hard to put much optimism into a long-range precip forecast for the lower deserts. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1720Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No aviation weather concerns are anticipated through the forecast period. Winds will continue a gradual transition to W-SW over the next few hours. Any gusts should be limited to around 15-18 kts during the late afternoon/early evening. The diurnal easterly shift should occur late tonight at KIWA and KPHX.High cirrus will increase in coverage over the region from W to E, becoming BKN by late this afternoon. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation weather issues will exist through the forecast period under increasing high cirrus decks. Confidence remains high that winds will transition from northerly to westerly at KIPL while a persistent northerly component prevails at KBLH. Wind gusts 20-25 kt will be common at KBLH late through late this afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... There will be a slow day-to-day warming of temperatures, but overall high temperatures will remain near seasonal normals as the normals also slowly rise. Very dry conditions will also persist through the end of the week with minimum RH values around 5-15% each day. There will be a slight bump up in moisture this weekend, that may lead to some dry thunderstorms in the mountains of eastern AZ, but minimum RHs will still be around 10-15%. Overnight recoveries will be poor to fair, mostly around 25-45%. Seasonal wind patterns are expected through the rest of the week, with afternoon upslope breezes up to 15-25 mph. There will likely be a slight uptick in southerly up-river winds along the Colorado River Valley Friday through this weekend, with a small pattern shift, but afternoon and evening gusts are currently forecast to top out in the 20-30 mph range along the river. There will also likely be a return of evening and early-overnight gulf surge boundaries moving up from the Gulf of California through the AZ deserts. These boundaries will mostly lead to a brief uptick in winds and sudden southwesterly wind shifts. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Benedict LONG TERM...Benedict AVIATION...Salerno FIRE WEATHER...Benedict  311 FXUS65 KPUB 191722 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1122 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and wetter weather expected today and tomorrow, with best chances for widespread precip coming in tonight. - Strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible on Thursday, especially on our eastern plains. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1234 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 The post frontal cold airmass is finally here to stay, and critical fire weather conditions are not forecast for the next several days. Temperatures have fallen into the 30s and 40s across our plains and mountain valleys. With some lingering moisture and upslope in place, fog and freezing fog will be possible across the Pikes Peak region, the Arkansas River Valley, down into the Wet Mountain Valley and our mountain adjacent plains west of I-25. Frost Advisories have been been issued for many of these places that are into their growing seasons by now, and northern El Paso County remains in a Freeze Warning through 8 AM this morning as well. Temperatures look to stay cool under mostly cloudy skies today, though some clearing will be possible later this afternoon, especially further east where upsloping will be less impactful. Daytime highs are likely to remain in the 50s across the 1-25 corridor, with 60s for the San Luis Valley and the eastern plains. Some very light rain may be possible over our mountain adjacent plains and eastern mountains this morning as upslope deepens, but better chances for wetting rains move in after sunset as shortwave energy embedded in another trough out west comes through the region. Most areas along and east of the Continental Divide, and along and west of the I-25 corridor are expected to see chances for rain tonight into Wednesday morning. Snow levels look to drop down to 8,000 or 9,000ft in some areas, which should put some light snow accumulations on the higher peaks of the Sangres, the Wets, and the central mountains through the overnight hours. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than last night/early this morning in most places, though the Palmer Divide may drop down into the 33 to 34F degree range once again. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Wednesday.. We start out our Wednesday morning cool, cloudy, and with precip chances for most areas, but dry out gradually through the morning hours, especially for areas south of Highway 50. After a morning lull in precip chances though, another approaching trough looks to bring showers and thunderstorms back for most of the high country and portions of our plains. Daytime highs in the 50s and 60s and more stable conditions on the plains should limit any chances for severe storms as the trough approaches, but clearing over the high country may lead to a few stronger storms. Thursday.. Thursday could be an interesting day as our next trough digs in to our northwest and brings stronger forcing for possible severe thunderstorms to our region. Models bring its axis into western CO through the afternoon, with southerly and southeasterly surface flow out ahead of if it through much of the day. This brings 40 and 50 degree dewpoints back into the plains, and juices up instability as well. Shear looks to be forecast around 35kt to 45kt for much of the eastern plains, where 50 degree dewpoints look to be possible. Models are not in great agreement about where a dryline may set up obviously with the event being this far out, but it is safe to say that Thursday will need to be watched closely for severe potential across our plains. Friday Onwards.. Models keeps us in cool northwest flow behind the front on Friday, though showers and thunderstorms look to remain possible, especially over and near the higher terrain. We warm up through the weekend as high pressure tries to build to our southwest, but enough moisture looks to stay over the region to keep at least slight chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms over and near the higher terrain through the weekend. Winds look to stay on the weak side and humidity values look to stay above critical thresholds through the extended as well, so at this time fire danger is not expected. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1114 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR to VFR cigs will persist for KCOS and KPUB into the evening before another round of showers pushes off the mountains during the evening dropping cigs back into the MVFR category for both terminals with -SHRA. Cigs/vis will likely drop into the IFR category after 06z at KCOS as southeast upslope winds continue. Cigs will continue into the morning hours before lifting during the late morning and afternoon. Winds will be predominantly southeast to easterly through the period. KALS will stay VFR through today with gusty southwest winds this afternoon. -SHRA may enter the terminal after 00z with VCSH possible into the overnight hours. Cigs will remain VFR but winds will lighten up towards 06z. Winds tomorrow will increase again out of the southwest and gust up to 30 kts in the afternoon. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EHR LONG TERM...EHR AVIATION...KT  430 FXUS63 KMPX 191725 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1225 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of frost overnight, especially across western and central Minnesota. - Seasonably cool & dry weather persists through mid-week. - Shower & thunderstorm chances return Friday through the Memorial Day weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Current observations highlight spotty sprinkles/drizzle thanks to the lingering stratus deck. High temperatures will top out in the low to mid 50s with northwest winds gusting to 25 mph. It will feel much closer to late March than late May. Skies will gradually break up this through the evening with clearing skies likely overnight as a surface high pressure moves in. Northwest winds will turn light and variable overnight. The combination of light winds and mostly clear skies should allow our temperatures to fall into the low to mid 30s across much of western and central Minnesota. A Frost Advisory goes in effect tonight through early Wednesday morning given the likelihood of areas of frost across western and central MN. What about a Freeze Warning if my low temperature is 30? Sub- freezing temperatures are possible tonight, especially across central MN, but the residence time below freezing shouldn't be long enough to experience a proper freeze. This is why we went with a Frost Advisory versus a Freeze Warning. Temperatures should remain a few degrees warmer across E/S MN and W WI, helping prevent any meaningful frost formation. Temperatures rebound into the mid to upper 60s on Thursday as southeasterly winds set up in the return flow across the Upper Midwest. Our attention then turns to the holiday weekend. Our next chance for any meaningful precipitation arrives Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Precipitation is tied to a shortwave tracking along the US- CAN border. While there could be some embedded thunderstorms with this system, the general pattern doesn't appear favorable for meaningful severe weather chances. The remainder of Memorial Day weekend should be pleasant. Temperatures rebound into the 80s Sunday and Monday with limited precipitation chances. Guidance solutions remain varied with precipitation chances Sunday/Monday, but nothing that would imply a washout or even a disruption to outdoor plans. Warmer, Summer-like temperatures will stick around for the first half of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Most sites are sitting in MVFR conditions with ceiling heights generally around 1500-2500ft early this afternoon. We'll see cigs continue to rise for the second half of the day, reaching VFR during the late afternoon and early evening timeframe. At the same time, we expect to see the cloud deck begin to scatter out as a surface high spreads across the region. Some light sprinkles are possible with scattered showers today, but visibility impacts will be negligible. Winds will remain breezy through sunset, gusting to around 20 to 30 kts, before diminishing overnight. Winds will not be strong tomorrow (mostly around 5 kts), and will back out of the north and eventually southeast by tomorrow evening. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15kts FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15kts. SAT...Chance MVFR/-RA early. Wind SW 10-15kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for Benton- Brown-Chippewa-Chisago-Douglas-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi- Lac Qui Parle-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet- Pope-Redwood-Renville-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Stevens- Swift-Todd-Wright-Yellow Medicine. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BPH AVIATION...BED  475 FXUS63 KICT 191726 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1226 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lingering spotty showers/thunderstorms this morning, but severe weather unlikely. Hit-or-miss shower/storm chances continue tonight over southeast, but severe weather once again unlikely. - Below average temperatures Tuesday through Thursday, warming trend Friday and beyond. - Periodic off-and-on showers/thunderstorms Wednesday evening through the weekend, but especially Wednesday night through Friday night. Widespread severe weather unlikely. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES: PREDAWN HOURS--THIS MORNING...Line of thunderstorms continues to advance east-southeast, and will exit far southeast KS before sunrise. While isolated pockets of 50-60 mph winds remain possible, widespread severe weather is no longer expected. Further west-northwest in back of this line of storms over portions of central, eastern, and southern Kansas, persistent weak to modest lift in the vicinity of the 850-700mb trough/moist axis should support spotty hit-or-miss showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms through this morning. This activity will likely not be widespread, and marginal instability will prevent strong or severe storms or heavy rain. TONIGHT--EARLY TUESDAY...Should see isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms tonight through early Tuesday over far southeast KS, underneath the right entrance region of the upper jet, and in vicinity of the persistent 850-700mb trough/moist axis. Marginal instability will prevent strong/severe storms or widespread heavy rainfall. WEDNESDAY EVENING--WEEKEND...A train of shortwaves traversing Mid- America will support periodic on-and-off shower/thunderstorm chances Wednesday evening through the weekend, but probably most widespread Wednesday night through Friday night. While a few strong storms and pockets of heavy rainfall are possible, marginal instability combined with relatively weak shear and forcing should preclude widespread chances for severe weather and heavy rainfall, although any rainfall will be beneficial given the steadily worsening drought conditions the past month or two. TEMPERATURES: Below average temperatures are likely today through Thursday, as Canadian high pressure exerts its influence on Mid-America, along with periodic cloud cover and precipitation. Daytime highs mostly in the 60s are expected, with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. As we head into Friday and beyond, a warming trend back to above average temperatures is expected, as heights/thickness gradually increase over the Heartland. Widespread daytime highs in the 80s are probable by Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Showers and storms continue to exit Kansas to the east however MVFR cigs will most likely remain and impact KCNU/KICT with brief moments of IFR cigs for KCNU. A few showers or thunderstorms may redevelop this afternoon over southeast Kansas but should be widely scattered. VFR conditions are expected elsewhere with gusty northerly winds throughout the TAF period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...SGS  498 FXUS66 KHNX 191727 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1027 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Low relative humidities in the lower elevations of Central California brings at least a moderate risk of Fire Danger this week. 2. Warming trend throughout the week. 3. Practice safety around area lakes, rivers, and streams as water is still running cold. && .DISCUSSION... Winds will continue to die down today as the inside slider from this weekend moves more eastward. As we continue on with the week, high pressure will begin to build along the West Coast which will contribute to a warming trend beginning today and extending to the end of the week. There is moderate to high probability (60 to 80 percent) that the majority of the San Joaquin Valley will be flirting with the 90's on Wednesday. By Thursday, the SJV again has moderate to high probabilities of being within the mid to upper 90's. There is a low possibility (5 to 15 percent) of flirting with those triple digit temps once again on Thursday and Friday, particularly within Fresno, Madera and Merced counties. With this building high pressure, the relative humidities will continue to stay low (less than 15 percent) through Friday. Looking ahead into next week, an upper level trough will pass over the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures with this are looking to be in the low to mid 90s at the warmest locations. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Low relative humidity values continue throughout the Valley this week. Most areas within the SJV will be below 15 percent. The predominant threats for fire weather will be rapidly developing and spreading grass fires. Winds will be lighter compared to the weekend. A warming and drying trend will move into Central California throughout Friday. Thus, elevated fire weather throughout the week. There will be poor to moderate overnight humidity recovery for the latter part of the week. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public...BB aviation....BB weather.gov/hanford  509 FXUS66 KMTR 191727 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1027 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1026 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 - Diurnally driven winds, with onshore winds during the afternoon and early evening. - Above normal temperatures continue through midweek with seasonal temperatures returning late week && .UPDATE... Issued at 914 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 Clear skies across the region this morning with much lighter winds compared to this time yesterday. Temperatures across the lower elevations are running up to 10 degrees cooler than they were yesterday morning. Oppositely, temperatures across the higher elevations are running warmer than they were yesterday morning. Highs today will be in the 80s across the interior and 60s to 70s along the coast. Higher end forecasts suggest some potential for high temperatures to reach the low 90s across interior hot spots (North Bay valleys, East Bay hills, southern Santa Clara Valley). && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1026 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 (Tonight through Tuesday) The forecast appears to be on track, with broad upper level troughing holding over much of the western U.S. while high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific. The good news, is that our breezy offshore winds have eased substantially leaving us with fairly calm weather in return. Tonight, skies will remain clear and temperatures will generally fall into the 50s for the valleys, perhaps upper 40s for some coastal sites and the southern Salinas Valley. At higher elevations, a thermal belt will exist as temperatures fall into the mid 50s to low 60s and may still have some northerly winds. For those in the valleys, winds will generally be light and variable. Tomorrow, another warm day will be on tap. The question will be, how do the temperatures pan out? Offshore flow won't be as prevalent, which means there could be less of a downsloping / warming of the air affect. But, that upper level high slowly creeps towards us and the marine layer is essentially negligible. Opted to blend a bit of the observations from Monday to the NBM giving us a similar forecast, to what occurred yesterday. The interior Bay Area valleys should make it into the 80s, perhaps near 90 degrees, while coastal communities experience a tighter gradient of highs in the 60s to low 70s. The San Francisco Peninsula should be similar, with the Pacific side having temps range from the mid 60s to low 70s, while the Bay side ranges from the upper 70s to mid 80s. And finally the Central Coast, interior locations rise into the mid 70s to mid 80s, while coastal communities vary from the mid 60s to the low 80s. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1026 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 (Tuesday night through next Monday) No major changes to the extended forecast. Upper level troughing looks to keep hold over the western US through at least Wednesday, with that Pacific high slowly peeking into northern CA. This should bring a return of onshore flow to the region and eventually the marine layer. Warm weather looks to linger through at least Wednesday, with Thursday potentially seeing a slight change in temperatures if the marine layer develops. Guidance for Thursday caps it at 500ft at best, with the marine layer getting to 1000ft by Friday. The marine layer appears to better establish itself Friday night into Saturday, likely getting to around 1000ft again. Will need to keep an eye on this as it will affect how temperatures pan && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1021 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR will prevail the remainder of today and tonight with a chance of MVFR/IFR cigs developing around sunrise Wednesday. Light and variable winds this morning become light but steady onshore this afternoon and evening. Vicinity of SFO...VFR is expected through today and tonight with a slight chance of MVFR cigs developing around sunrise Wednesday with confidence too low for mentioning in the TAF attm. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar as SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR will prevail today and tonight with a chance of MVFR/IFR cigs developing around sunrise Wednesday morning. Expect light and variable to light onshore winds through the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 914 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 Fresh northerly breezes will continue over the northern outer zones through tomorrow with hazardous conditions through Thursday morning. Wave heights increase again on Thursday with increasing northwest swell that eases for the end of the weak into the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  567 FXUS61 KCLE 191729 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 129 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... There has been some added uncertainty with the severe weather potential this afternoon into the evening given the lingering cloud deck east of I71. There is high confidence that isolated storms will form into a line and push east, but how far east that line remains severe will be uncertain. In addition, dewpoints have been increased in the forecast to the mid 60s to low 70s given current observational trends. Best timing for severe potential remains between 5-10PM today. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) The entire area remains highlighted in Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather late this afternoon into the evening. Primary threat remains strong winds, although localized heavy rainfall and small hail are possible. 2) A big cool down is on the way for Wednesday and Thursday as high moves into the area. 3) An unsettled weather pattern with multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... This afternoon, a few light showers continue to linger across far NEOH and NWPA, keeping cloud cover over that portion of the area and limiting keeping destabilization at a minimum right now. However, across western counties, cloud decks have scattered out and temperatures have quickly rose into the low 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s, trending towards the low 70s. This has allowed for rapid destabilization with modeled soundings suggesting SB CAPE already in the 2000-2500 J/kg range and steepening low level lapse rates close to 8 C/km. The best shear with this event should remain north of the area with bulk shear values in the 15-25 knot range. Given these environmental conditions, would not be surprised to see some isolated storms develop this afternoon ahead of a main line expected to push east later this evening. DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg add confidence that the primary hazard concern with any convection with be strong to damaging winds. Cannot rule out some small hail, especially in the discrete cells ahead of the primary line. The tornado threat remains very low, although not zero, given the best shear is to the north of the area. Any quick spin ups that do occur would likely be embedded within the line of convection this evening. The final concern is locally heavy rainfall, especially in the most developed cells, that could lead to localized ponding on area roads. Modeled soundings suggest that brief training of cells could occur this evening along the boundary which would coincide in timing with an increased warm cloud layer and PWAT push. Overall concern for widespread flooding this evening remains low, but to highlight the potential WPC has included the entire area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) ERO today. KEY MESSAGE 2... Late tonight, a strong cold front is expected to move east across the area, marking a transition back to much cooler temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures are expected to be nearly 20 degrees cooler compared to today, only climbing into the upper 50s to low 60s as 850mb of 5-7C nudge south over the area. Some lingering showers will be possible across the southern tier of counties on Wednesday before the cold front fully pushes south and high pressure dries everything out through Thursday. Unfortunately, that means that Wednesday will be rather dreary as cloud coverage across the area lingers before peaks of sunshine return on Thursday. To compliment daytime highs, overnight lows Wednesday night will fall into the low to mid 40s and into the upper 40s to low 50s Thursday night. At this point, there is no concern for a late season frost. KEY MESSAGE 3... The upcoming holiday weekend will be fairly unsettled as multiple shortwave troughs push east across the region, bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms to the area as a near stationary boundary settles somewhere near the CWA. Initially, this boundary on Friday should begin to push north of the area, marking a transition back to warmer and more seasonable temperatures for the weekend. Then this boundary will ebb and flow over the CWA as the aforementioned troughs push east. As moisture increases over the area, multiple rounds of rainfall, potentially heavy at times, will result in possible flood concerns across area rivers and potential aerial flooding where rain persists. WPC has already highlighted the area in a Day 4 Marginal (level 1 of 5) ERO. The thunder potential should be isolated to daytime hours as diurnal instability adds additional support for shower development, but any severe potential remains uncertain at this time. Highs throughout the weekend will be in the 70s with mild overnight lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/... Better chance of convective activity hitting all terminals in this forecast compared to this time yesterday as thunderstorms set to develop west of the area around 20Z and spread eastward. Strong wind gusts in storms expected with IFR as well from reductions in visibilities in ongoing storms. Ahead of this, southwest winds will gust 20-30kts at the surface. A cold front will trail the convection tonight, switching winds around from the southwest to the northwest, and then eventually the northeast heading into Wednesday. Ceilings lower in the wake of the cold front to MVFR, with some IFR possible at MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in periodic showers late Friday through Saturday. && .MARINE... South-southwest winds continue until a cold front crosses the lake overnight tonight. Winds will generally be in the 10-20kt range, with gusts in the nearshore waters of 25-30kt likely this afternoon. Will go with a Small Craft Advisory from Erie County OH points west where winds will be gustiest...not quite as gusty farther east, though still on the breezy side. Waves of 1-3 feet in the nearshore will increase to 2-4 feet in the open waters today. Thunderstorms ahead of the cold front late this afternoon and evening may produce strong wind gusts over 35kt and locally up to 50kt over the lake. Winds whip around to the north- northeast late tonight into Wednesday at 10-17kt behind the cold front, keeping 1-3 foot waves going. Winds increase to 15-20kt and gradually turn more northeasterly into Thursday and easterly into Friday as strong high pressure passes north and northeast of the lake. East-northeast winds often perform well in these types of setups and have continued to inch up in the forecast, and a period of small craft/beach hazards headlines is looking increasingly likely for at least some of the nearshore waters late this week. && .CLIMATE... A record high temperature occurred at Erie, Pennsylvania on Monday. High temperatures today will approach record values at some locations again. The following are the records for May 19. Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 05-19 92(1996) 88(1964) 88(1998) 91(1911) 89(1934) 90(1996) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>144. && $$ DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...26 MARINE...Sullivan  598 FXUS61 KPBZ 191729 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 129 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The forecast remains largely unchanged, with continued confidence in storm arrival in eastern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania after 8 PM tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Highest risk for severe storms/damaging wind gusts will be in areas of northwest PA/eastern OH, with diminishing risk near Pittsburgh. Conditional severe threats remain on Wednesday southeast of Pittsburgh with a departing front. 2) Strengthening signal for a wet Memorial Day Weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Mid-level capping (focused around 500mb per this morning's 12z sounding) is maintained through this afternoon and will keep ongoing isolated to scattered convective activity limited to showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two with a low severe threat. The upper ridge supporting that cap begins to break down in response to an encroaching Upper Midwest/Great Lakes shortwave, with 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE forecast to develop by this evening. A more organized severe thunderstorm threat remains possible in closer proximity to an advancing cold front that enters the area after 8pm. The most likely scenario presented by CAMS remains the development of strong to severe thunderstorms in western Ohio in the 6pm-8pm window along and ahead of the front, perhaps associated with a prefrontal trough. These storms should be weakening as they approach northwest PA/eastern OH after 9pm or so due to diurnal buoyancy loss as well as 20-25 knots of 0-6km shear fostering only loose organization/limited cold pool consolidation. Still, with up to 900 J/kg of DCAPE available north and west of Pittsburgh, strong to severe downdraft winds remain a decent possibility in the taller storms; this is the area highlighted in SPC's day 1 Slight (level 2 of 5) Risk. Hail is a lesser concern due to the lower shear and poor mid-level lapse rates less than 6C/km. Also, with around 100 m2/s2 of 0-1km storm- relative helicity available north of I-80, a tornado cannot be totally ruled out in this area as LCLs lower, although 0-3km CAPE may be a bit low. Convective intensity is expected to wane overnight as the parent cold front moves in, but some showers and storms will continue. Wednesday still presents a limited and conditional severe threat in the Laurels and in the WV ridges. This will depend on frontal timing and the amount of rain/cloud cover in the region during the morning into the afternoon. A slower front, with less precipitation and some cloud breaks out ahead, could allow sufficient destabilization for an isolated damaging wind threat. Scenarios with a faster front and more solid cloud cover could largely choke off the threat for strong convection. This will need to be monitored, and the SPC Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk southeast of Pittsburgh shows the potential threat area well. KEY MESSAGE 2... Probabilities for a soaking rain over Memorial Day Weekend continue to increase as an active pattern persists through that time. Latest guidance suggests a surface low lifts northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley to our west Friday into Saturday, bringing a warm front and widespread rain chances to the region. During that time, surface high pressure is forecast to be centered over the Upper Great Lakes and New England states. This setup is similar to past events that have generated 2+ inches of rainfall across the local area, though it should be noted that minor deviations (e.g., east-west positioning of the low or strength of the ridge) could result in the axis of heaviest rainfall shifting around (or away from) the local area. Latest NBM probabilities show a 60-80% chance for at least an inch of 24-hr rainfall accumulation Friday into Saturday, and a 20-40% chance for 2+ inches. A second wave of rain is then forecast later in the weekend, though that one appears a bit more progressive in nature and NBM probabilities reflect that with only a ~20% chance of exceeding an inch of 24-hr rainfall Sunday into Monday. Still, combined with the preceding Friday-Saturday rainfall, it is looking more possible that weekend totals approach or exceed 1-2 inches, and potentially even 3 inches (20% chance in NBM). It is still too early to discuss impacts as a lot could change over coming days, but this signal will warrant monitoring through the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR is expected through much of the day as mid and high clouds continue to increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Model soundings and the CU rule indicate scattered cumulus clouds should develop by mid morning with surface heating. There is a potential for a shower or thunderstorm to affect a few airports from late morning into early afternoon with leftover boundaries from earlier convection to our west, though this potential is limited, and too low for TAF inclusion at this time. In addition, SW wind is expected to gust to around 20kt during the day with mixing. More showers and thunderstorms are expected to track across Ohio late this afternoon and evening in advance of an approaching cold front. It appears that the instability should be diminishing as these storms advance eastward, with an overall weakening trend by late evening. Included prob30 mentions for most sites across Ohio and western PA, from mid to late evening as these storms approach. A current model run is showing the potential for some storms to pop-up in eastern Ohio before the development of the main line, which is why additional PROB30s were added to ZZV and HLG for short periods this afternoon. Outlook... Restrictions and showers are likely by late Tuesday night into Wednesday as the cold front slowly crosses the Upper Ohio Valley region. A few thunderstorms are also possible. Restrictions are possible mainly south of PIT Wednesday night and Thursday as a wave of low pressure tracks along the front. Restrictions and showers return from S-N Friday into Saturday as a warm front lifts north across the area. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cermak/CL AVIATION...WM/Lupo  549 FXUS61 KPHI 191728 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 128 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation section updated for the 18z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Hot and more humid conditions continue, with record setting early season heat probable, through Wednesday. 2. A cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the region Wednesday through Thursday, then much cooler temperatures by the end of this week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and more humid conditions continue, with record setting early season heat probable, through Wednesday. A strong upper-level ridge centered off the Southeast U.S. coast will remain in place through late this evening before it starts to flatten on its northwest side during Wednesday. This along with surface high pressure anchored in the western Atlantic will drive a south to southwest flow of early season (anomalous) heat across our area into Wednesday. Temperatures are forecast to peak into the 90s for many areas again today and Wednesday, except cooler along the coasts and the higher terrain. While the surface dew points will likely mix out some during peak heating due to the drier ground and boundary layer (low evapotranspiration), this stretch of early season heat, with record breaking high temperatures probable, will have potentially greater impacts. The Heat Advisory remains in place across much of the region, including most of the area where the heat index criteria starts at 100F (the urban I-95 corridor criteria starts at 96F through June). While it will probably fall a little short for some areas, the potential greater impacts (lack of acclimation) is driving our decision. Where the wind turns more from the south and especially southeast will result in quite a bit of cooling due to the chilly ocean and therefore did not include the immediate coastal zones in the Heat Advisory. Peak heat indices will be 95 to nearing 100 degrees, with the core of the heat shifting a bit more south and east during Wednesday as a strong cold front starts to arrive. Based on this, portions of the Heat Advisory for areas farther north and west of I-95 only goes through Tuesday. High temperatures on Wednesday will depend on how quickly cloud cover arrives along with showers and some thunderstorms. Either way, we will have a high launching pad for temperatures to start Wednesday and it will still be rather hot. Temperatures at night will be quite warm by mid May standards. Lows will only be in the mid 60s to low 70s, which will challenge daily warmest low temperature records for May 19th. Today will largely be dry as well thanks to the strong ridging overhead. However, a stray shower or storm cannot be completely ruled out this afternoon and evening with the amount of heat and instability in the low-levels. The most likely location for any storms would be north of I-78 where terrain would aid in forcing for any convection. Shear will be relatively low though (only around 25-30 kts) so little organization is expected with anything that does form. KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the region Wednesday through Thursday, then much cooler temperatures by the end of this week. As mentioned above, a cold front will approach the area Wednesday and bring an end to the stretch of above normal temperatures by Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this front as it passes through the region. Recent guidance trends continue to show the front moving through during the second half of Wednesday into Wednesday night. Given this timing, there is the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms. There remains uncertainty in the more specific details and some timing variations remain. Regarding the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms, the cold front will be moving into an air mass that will feature plenty of instability. The better shear and forcing look to be to our north, but bulk shear values will be supportive of some storm organization along with some supportive lapse rates. All of this said, the potential is there for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with the SPC maintaining a Marginal Risk in Wednesday's severe weather outlook. The primary concerns with any strong to severe thunderstorm would be damaging wind gusts and large hail. General rainfall accumulation from this frontal passage looks around 0.25" or less. However, given this convection and PWAT values reaching to 1.5-2.0", localized higher amounts are certainly possible with any heavier pockets of rain. As the front sinks south into Thursday morning, it then looks to linger near or just south of the area through the remainder of the day Thursday. This will lead to the potential for more rain showers, particularly for our southeastern zones. An unsettled pattern looks to continue to take shape for Friday and into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. This afternoon...VFR. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out toward evening mainly north and west of KPHL. Southwesterly winds 8-12 knots with some gusts to 20 knots. Low confidence regarding shower/thunderstorm occurrence. Tonight...VFR. Southwest winds 5-10 knots, becoming locally light and variable. Moderate confidence. Wednesday...VFR overall with increasing clouds during the day. Some showers and thunderstorms arrive later in the afternoon and evening with areas of sub-VFR conditions. Locally gusty winds possible with a stronger thunderstorm. Southwest winds increasing to 10-15 knots with some gusts to 20 knots. Low confidence on timing details. Outlook... Thursday...A period of sub-VFR conditions with some showers. Friday through Sunday...Periods of sub-VFR conditions with showers at times, especially late Friday and Saturday. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory continues for the New Jersey Atlantic coastal waters this afternoon and evening. Though southerly flow will be increasing, a hot air mass will be moving over the chilly water and the vertical mixing will be reduced. However, given the strength of the flow, there should be a period of wind gusts to around 25 knots and seas building to about 5 feet. It looks to be more marginal for the Delaware Atlantic coastal waters and therefore held off on issuing an advisory. For Delaware Bay, the conditions should continue to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through tonight. Outlook... Wednesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. Seas lessen by Wednesday morning but elevated winds out of the southwest remain through the day Wednesday with gusts near 20-25 kt. Rain showers move in Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. There is also the potential for isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday night. Thursday...Conditions expected to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria but showers may linger. Friday through Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions expected as seas reach 4-6 feet. There is the chance for some rain showers. Rip Currents... This afternoon, south to southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. There will be a southeast swell with a period around 8 seconds. As a result there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for the Jersey Shore and for Delaware Beaches. On Wednesday, south to southwest winds should be similar to today. There will be a southeast swell with a period around 6 seconds. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for the Jersey Shore and a LOW risk for Delaware Beaches. Will continue to note that while surface temperatures inland will be in the 90s this afternoon and again on Wednesday, temperatures along the coasts will mainly be in the 70s to near 80 due to ocean temperatures in the 50s. These cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .CLIMATE... Some record breaking temperatures are forecast through Wednesday. High temperatures today and low temperatures Wednesday morning could challenge monthly all time records for May. Records for our climate sites are listed below: Monthly Record High Temperatures for May Site Record/Date Allentown (ABE) 97/May 19, 1962 AC Airport (ACY) 99/May 29, 1969 AC Marina (55N) 95/May 31, 1895 & May 23, 1925 Georgetown (GED) 98/May 28, 1991 Mount Pocono (MPO) 94/May 22, 1911 Philadelphia (PHL) 97/May 30 & 31, 1991 Reading (RDG) 97/May 20, 1996 Trenton (TTN) 99/May 23, 1911 & May 31, 1986 Wilmington (ILG) 98/May 10, 1895 & May 30, 1895 Monthly Record Warmest Low Temperatures for May Site Record/Date Allentown (ABE) 71/May 31, 1975, May 28 & 31, 1991 AC Airport (ACY) 73/May 24, 2004 & May 19, 2017 AC Marina (55N) 73/May 30 & 31, 1987, & May 31, 1991 Georgetown (GED) 74/May 23, 1953 & May 20, 2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 68/May 21, 1996 Philadelphia (PHL) 78/May 31, 1895 Reading (RDG) 72/May 28 & 31, 1939, & May 31, 1991 Trenton (TTN) 75/May 31, 1895 Wilmington (ILG) 75/May 30, 1895 Record High Temperatures May 19 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 97/1962 AC Airport (ACY) 96/1962 AC Marina (55N) 92/1998 Georgetown (GED) 96/1962 Mount Pocono (MPO) 89/1962 Philadelphia (PHL) 96/1962 Reading (RDG) 96/1962 Trenton (TTN) 96/1962 Wilmington (ILG) 95/1962 Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 19 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 65/2017 AC Airport (ACY) 73/2017 AC Marina (55N) 68/1998 Georgetown (GED) 73/2017 Mount Pocono (MPO) 60/1943 Philadelphia (PHL) 74/1877 Reading (RDG) 68/1962 Trenton (TTN) 70/2017 Wilmington (ILG) 70/2017 Record High Temperatures May 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 92/1962 & 1996 AC Airport (ACY) 96/1996 AC Marina (55N) 93/1996 Georgetown (GED) 95/1962 Mount Pocono (MPO) 89/1996 Philadelphia (PHL) 94/1962 & 1996 Reading (RDG) 97/1996 Trenton (TTN) 94/1996 Wilmington (ILG) 96/1996 Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 66/2019 AC Airport (ACY) 68/1996 AC Marina (55N) 69/1996 Georgetown (GED) 74/2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 61/1959 Philadelphia (PHL) 71/2019 Reading (RDG) 69/1959 & 1996 Trenton (TTN) 68/1903, 1959, & 1962 Wilmington (ILG) 70/2019 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ070-071-102-104- 106. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ060>062-101- 103-105. NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ012-013-015- 017>020-027. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ007>010. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ012>021- 026-027. DE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ450>453. && $$ DISCUSSION...AKL/Gorse/MJL AVIATION...AKL/Gorse/MJL MARINE...AKL/MJL  538 FXUS62 KILM 191728 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 128 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Discussions updated. Chances for precip on Thursday are now mainly focused in the late day and overnight period due to a later cold front arrival. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Temperatures remain well above normal through Thursday, particularly for areas west of I-95. 2) Rain chances should increase, especially inland, beginning Thursday as a front temporarily stalls in the Carolinas. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures remain well above normal through Thursday, particularly for areas west of I-95. An upper high centered near Bermuda and another over the southern Gulf are connected by a ridge axis across the interior Southeast US, and this is responsible for the sustained period of hot inland temperatures which should last through Thursday. Sinking air below the upper ridge will create a deep warm, dry layer in the middle troposphere, supporting abnormally warm surface temperatures. Models continue their 850 mb temp forecasts of +16C to 18C (at or above the 90th percentile climatological values for this time of year), which maintains high confidence in our forecast of 90+ degree heat continuing through Thursday for locations away from the daily cooling influences of the sea breeze. Our forecast is for 90+ degree heat inland through Thursday. Since Florence and Lumberton highs reached 90 degrees starting on Sunday, a five day streak would eclipse this year's earlier streak of four days of 90 degree temps recorded from April 15-18 in both Florence and Lumberton. Coastal portions of the Carolinas should remain significantly cooler than inland due to sustained south winds dragging air across nearshore water temps in the middle 70s. Guidance tools remain in line with the front settling through on Thursday night, even making it offshore by Friday morning. However, they are quick to lift the front back northward during the day on Friday, with it likely ending up north of US-76 and near or west of I-95 by early afternoon. Where this front ends up will influence the coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend, and subsequently, the max temperatures each day. Current forecast max temps may be a few degrees too cool if the coverage of precip ends up more isolated. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances should increase, especially inland, beginning Thursday as a front temporarily stalls in the Carolinas. Dry weather will come to an end as a front shifts in from the north on Thursday and subsidence aloft weakens enough to permit at least isolated pop-up convection on Thursday, with perhaps some focused development along the front itself overnight Thursday night. However, the front is expected to lift back northward on Friday before stalling across northwestern portions of the area or just north of there. Overall, the best chances exist across northwestern portions of the forecast area each afternoon at least through Monday, particularly between the stalled front and the inland- pushing sea breeze each day. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High confidence in mainly VFR conditions thru the 18Z TAF period, especially near the coast at KCRE/KMYR/KILM. The best chance of fog/low clouds overnight looks to be inland at KLBT/KFLO but model guidance isn't very agreeable, likely due to the shallow nature of the moisture. Extended Forecast...Moderate confidence in MVFR/IFR vsbys/ceilings each morning, generally in the 08z-12z timeframe. Restrictions are possible due to showers/storms starting Thu. Potential for daytime restrictions Friday and Saturday due to convection. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday...High confidence in mainly benign, summer-like conditions due to prevailing Bermuda high pressure resulting in southerly winds mainly 10 kt or less across the local area. However, winds will be slightly enhanced Wednesday afternoon near the coast due to the sea breeze with gusts up to 20 kt. 2-3 foot, 8-9 second southeast swells will continue to dominate the wave spectrum. Wednesday night through Sunday... Offshore high pressure will maintain control through the week. A backdoor front is expected to settle towards the waters on Thursday night and may briefly move offshore early Friday morning before lifting back northward on Friday. Generally south to southeast winds can be expected until the front draws near, with a period of east or even northeast winds possible near the coast if the front can push offshore. Sustained winds are expected to stay between 5-15 kts, with enhanced nearshore gustiness due to the sea breeze likely each day. Seas are expected to hold in the 2-3 ft range in the 0-20nmi zone and 3-4 ft range in the 20-60nmi zone through the period, mainly driven by persistent southeasterly swells with a period of 8-9 sec. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM KEY MESSAGES...ILM DISCUSSION...ILM AVIATION...RJB MARINE...RJB/ABW  581 FXUS64 KJAN 191729 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1229 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms are possible over the western half of the area this evening. - Heat and humidity more typical of early summer can be expected along with increasing thunderstorm chances this week into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Through tonight: Another warm and humid day is on tap for the CWA but by this evening severe storms will be possible over our western zones and spread east into central Mississippi before weakening. As compared to yesterday, the "Marginal Risk" for severe storms has been expended eastward. Latest satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed a shortwave trough over the northern Plains and extending up into Canada. This shortwave trough will swing east through the period and its accompanying surface low will drag a cold front toward our CWA. As our winds aloft will remain southwesterly, the cold front will lose its upper level support and stall across the northwest portions of our CWA later tonight. Latest surface analysis still had a ridge nosing west across the Gulf coast states. This ridge will help maintain our moist airmass with PWATs around an inch and three quarters along with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Daytime heating of our moist airmass will lead to a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon but these storms should remain subsevere. More intense convection is expected to our west along and just ahead of the approaching cold front. These storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail as they move into our extreme western zones by early evening. The severe potential will become less the further into our CWA they progress and current thinking is that the severe potential will end close to midnight over central Mississippi before spreading into east Mississippi. Rainfall with this system is expected to be beneficial with the greatest amounts along and northwest of the Natchez Trace. Temperatures today are forecast in the lower 90s again but record highs are in the mid 90s. /22/ Wednesday through Monday: A frontal boundary will continue to progress towards the southeast before stalling north of the CWA. Ongoing showers and storm chances are expected through the extended period. Highs (ranging in the 80s) will remain near seasonal averages and lows (upper 60s/near 70 degrees) will run +10 degrees above seasonal averages over the extended as well. As the boundary stalls, multiple shortwave disturbances are expected to traverse the region, providing addition moisture and widespread rainfall chances Wednesday, lasting through the weekend. Increasing rain chances will begin Thursday, reaching 95% on Friday and up to 90% Saturday and Sunday. Organized severe weather is not anticipated as instability won't be as favorable, however, an isolated severe storm or two may be possible each day. Estimate rainfall amounts may range from 1.0-3.5 inches over the course of this week and the weekend. Received rainfall will help alleviate the ongoing drought over the ArkLaMiss region. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 As of 1729Z, all TAF sites are reporting VFR ceilings to start off the period. VFR conditions will prevail across the forecast area through 06Z. After 06Z, SHRA/TSRA will move into the area from the nw during the evening and will spread over central and northern sites resulting in MVFR/IFR ceilings. South TAF sites will see flight conditions drop to MVFR/IFR/LIFR by 09Z. Poor flying conditions will prevail across the south through 14Z. After 14Z, ceilings will begin to improve to VFR across south TAF sites. MVFR/IFR conditions will prevail across central/northern sites through 15Z. After 15Z, ceilings will slowly begin to improve to VFR conditions. /CR/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 71 86 69 86 / 60 70 50 70 Meridian 70 88 68 88 / 20 30 30 40 Vicksburg 71 85 69 84 / 70 70 70 80 Hattiesburg 70 89 68 88 / 10 40 20 50 Natchez 72 86 70 86 / 60 60 60 80 Greenville 71 84 68 83 / 80 80 70 80 Greenwood 71 85 69 84 / 70 80 60 80 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 22/SW/CR  811 FXUS63 KAPX 191731 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 131 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Scattered showers and storms continue this morning with hot and humid weather through the afternoon. -Cool and quiet weather returns Wednesday through the remainder of the work week with frost/freeze concerns tonight through Thursday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Longwave midlevel troughing is currently positioned over the North American Plains today with a strong jet max over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, low pressure positioned over Northern Wisconsin this morning will progress northeast today and drag a cold front across the CWA. Hot and humid air ahead of the front will continue to linger over the region before the strong thermal gradient rapidly drops temperatures overnight. Scattered showers and storms remain possible ahead of the frontal passage this morning as lingering instability settles across Northern Lower today. Cool and quiet weather builds into the region this evening through the remainder of the work week. cP air influence will return climatologically cool surface temps ahead of an upstream midlevel ridging pattern that builds over the central CONUS this week, causing temperatures to slowly build back to the mid/upper 70s. Dewpoint temps falling near or below freezing with efficient radiational cooling will return overnight frost/freeze concerns. Additionally, another thing to monitor amidst the atmospherically dry and cool high pressure is the continuation of minimal RH values approaching critical thresholds for fire weather. Precipitation chances build this weekend as a secondary trough axis develops over the North American Rockies and lifts northeast. No impactful weather is expected at this time, but energy waves will continue to inject enough instability to keep rainfall in the forecast as we head into late May. Forecast Details: Scattered showers and storms continue this morning with hot and humid weather through this afternoon... Enough lift from the well- advertised frontal boundary will fuel scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms this morning into the early afternoon. Overnight loss of surface based instability combined with showers becoming detached from the cold front itself will keep any severe potential minimal across the CWA. While most locations can expect mostly cloudy skies with hot and humid temperatures this afternoon behind the decaying line, daytime heating processes will build the minimal CAPE and shear values to support one or two single-celled thunderstorms that could produce strong gusty winds and/or hail. Cool and quiet weather returns through the remainder of the week with frost/freeze concerns Tuesday through Thursday night... Post- frontal northwest flow will pull cool and dry cP air into the Great Lakes Region tonight. Cold air advection combined with clear skies and radiational cooling processes will return potential frost development tonight followed by widespread frost/freeze Wednesday and Thursday nights. Surface high pressure will continue through the end of the work week, but surface temperatures are expected to slowly build as upstream embedded ridging shifts its axis over the Midwest. 850mb temps start near freezing and increase to around 10 degrees Celsius by the end of the week, resulting in adiabatic heating processes warming daytime highs from the 50s this Wednesday to the mid/upper 70s for most areas by the end of the week. One other thing to monitor this week besides the frost/freeze concerns is the dry dew points near or below freezing, leading to minimal RH values dropping to near critical thresholds for fire weather. No wind is expected under aforementioned subsidence, but we will continue to monitor conditions this Wednesday and Thursday if any potential lake breeze processes occur. Somewhat active weather returns this weekend as another trough develops surface low pressure lee of the Rockies and makes its way to the Midwest around the Saturday/Sunday timeframe. Latest guidance depicts strongest moisture advection to our south, likely leading to steady stratiform precipitation for the Northwoods. Additional waves of energy will keep slight to scattered PoP’s in the forecast through the remainder of the forecast period, but no widespread precipitation or impactful weather is expected at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 126 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Mostly VFR conditions at terminals to start the period, with MVFR cigs near KCIU. S/SW winds of 10 to 15kts with frequent G15 to 20kts as a FROPA approaches from the west. -SHRA chances will move through from west to east from 20z thru 03z (when the last chances exit KAPN). Winds will veer W then NE and remain gusty through 01/03z. Winds remain elevated at 10kts overnight and will continue to gradually veer. MVFR cigs will move in with the rain showers, and linger through the end of the period. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345>348. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321-322. && $$ DISCUSSION...SJC AVIATION...ELD  710 FXUS63 KARX 191730 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1230 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and dry through midweek with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. - Patchy to areas of frost possible in north-central and central Wisconsin tonight and Wednesday night. - Periodic shower and storms chances from Friday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Cooler and Dry for the Rest of Today Through Thursday After the cold front moves through, surface high pressure builds in and remains over the area through Thursday. This will keep the CWA under dry conditions and with the Upper Midwest on the edge of a longwave trough, temperatures will be on the cooler side with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Low temperatures tonight and Wednesday night get down into the upper 30s to potentially the mid 30s for portions of Clark and Taylor counties. There could be some patchy areas of frost with these low temperatures. There is a shortwave that pushes north from the Plains into the Upper Midwest, however uncertainty exists on if we get any precipitation from it. Currently the LREF gives a 30 to 50% chance for measurable rainfall to occur. Periodic Shower and Storm Chances From Friday into Early Next Week Deterministic and ensemble forecasts both favor the upper-level pattern remaining in the zonal to southwest flow. During this same time period there are a few disturbances that move into the Upper Midwest that increase precipitation chances. Heading into early next week, temperatures warm back up into the low 80s as some southwest flow returns. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An OVC to BKN cloud deck gradually thins and lifts through this evening, with VFR conditions after 03-05Z through the day on Wednesday. Northwest winds of 10-15G20-25kts gradually diminish this evening and veer to the north around 5 kts for Wednesday morning. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cecava AVIATION...Skow  679 FXUS63 KILX 191730 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1230 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A weakening line of storms will move through central Illinois this morning, bringing a low (less than 15% chance) risk of damaging winds or hail. - Additional storms may develop near Interstate 70 around midday, threatening the area with damaging winds, large hail, and torrential rainfall. - Saturated ground from recent heavy rains creates a lingering flash flood risk near Interstate 70, though the chance of exceeding flooding rainfall rates is low (20% or less). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Remnants of a linear MCS persist over west-central Illinois early this morning. While the activity has generally remained sub-severe, the mesoscale environment remains capable of producing occasional damaging wind gusts. Sustenance of the current ragged convective line is being supported by approximately 30-35 kts of effective layer shear, driven by a 50-60 kt low-level jet (LLJ) core veering in ahead of the system. Thermodynamic profiles ahead of the line are characterized by modest MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg, supported by favorable mid-level lapse rates exceeding 7 C/km, suggesting that isolated large hail cannot be entirely discounted. The potential for localized downbursts remains a focus as DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg combined with localized evaporative cooling and mid-level dry air could occasionally breach the morning inversion. Conversely, the tornado risk is considered minimal due to marginal low- level shear and an unfavorable storm-relative vector orientation. Nevertheless, convection should continue through the late morning as it nears the I-55 corridor, though it is expected to weaken as the primary mid-level shortwave moves north of I-80 and the LLJ recedes. Regarding precipitation, rainfall rates have remained modest. MRMS data indicates one-hour rates generally at or below one inch, a trend supported by high-resolution guidance as the line continues its gradual decay through the morning hours. Convective redevelopment is expected to remain suppressed north of Interstate 72 for the rest of the day, consistent with the stabilization caused by this mornings convective debris. The area near and south of I-70 presents the main concern for later today due to a higher potential for destabilization. Morning convective outflows are not expected to reach this southern region until approximately Noon (17z). HREF data indicates about 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE in this vicinity, which, when combined with a subtle mid-level shortwave, could increase effective-layer shear to near 30 kts. These conditions may briefly reinvigorate convective outflows, potentially resulting in damaging winds, large hail, and torrential rainfall. A heavy rainfall potential is particularly concerning given the wet antecedent conditions, with recent observations of 3-4 inches of rain across portions of Effingham, Clay, and Jasper counties. Flash flood guidance indicates that rainfall exceeding 1.25 inches per hour today could trigger widespread flooding. While current HREF guidance suggests a low probability (20% or less) of reaching these rates, the risk remains a focal point due to the saturated ground. Scattered showers may linger across southeast Illinois through Wednesday morning, with increased baroclinicity/frontogenesis behind the departed cold front. Rainfall amounts would be light should this occur, and the chances will be fleeting as a drier, cooler continental air mass settles over the Midwest. Precipitation is expected to return by Friday following a brief period of seasonably cool conditions. As surface high pressure shifts to the east, a robust mid-level shortwave isforecast to track into the central United States. This pattern, characterized by a steady stream of Gulf moisture and a series of minor impulses originating from the Southern Plains, will keep central Illinois susceptible to multiple rounds of scattered showers. While weak kinematic profiles should largely mitigate the risk of severe weather, a gradual increase in instability over the weekend may support the development of scattered thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 West-southwest winds will shift to the north-northwest as a cold front works through the area. A short period of MVFR ceilings will fill behind the front with about a 60-80% chance of occurrence at all airfields except KCMI. Afternoon/evening thunderstorm chances will remain south of all airfields with perhaps just a low chance (<20%) for isolated showers through this evening. Winds continue to veer to the north by Wednesday morning with clouds slowly lift from west to east through the day. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...MJA DISCUSSION...MJA AVIATION...NMA  930 FXUS61 KBOX 191733 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 133 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisory extended into Wednesday night for the southern outer waters. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Record heat possible Tuesday with marginal humidity, kicking off a multi-day stretch of anomalously hot temperatures (in the mid to upper 90s away from the South Coast). - Isolated thunderstorms possible today, mainly north and west of I- 95. Better chances for strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday with strong damaging winds the main risk. - Cooler and unsettled weather is possible Memorial Day Weekend, but confidence remains low. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record heat possible Tuesday with marginal humidity, kicking off a multi-day stretch of anomalously hot temperatures (in the mid to upper 90s away from the South Coast). A Heat Advisory remains in effect for much of southern New England on Tuesday and Wednesday, not necessarily because of the expectation for an exceptionally oppressive heat/humidity combo but due to a very early arrival of well above normal heat for mid May in southern New England. This anomalously warm airmass comes courtesy of a building mid level ridge today pushing 850 mb temps into the 18-20C range which wold be 2-3 SD above climatology. Given an expected well mixed boundary layer surface temperatures should be able to reach well into the 90s. Warmest locations will be the CT and Merrimack valleys where downslope flow will help push temps into the mid 90s with low to mid 90s elsewhere. The exception will be along the south coast where that SW wind trajectory off of the ocean keeps temps comfortably in the mid 70s. The ridge begins to break down on Wednesday with falling heights, but even so temps will remain elevated ahead of the cold front; increasing cloud cover ahead of the surface trough will help keep temps a few degrees cooler, but many locations inland still see low to mid 90s away from the water. Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s (discounting the outlier NAM) will make it feel humid but not tropical by any means. KEY MESSAGE 2...Isolated thunderstorms possible today, mainly north and west of I-95. Better chances for strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday with strong damaging winds the main risk. When it comes to thunderstorm threat each day, Wednesday looks to be the more favorable day for strong to severe storm coverage because while both days feature the necessary moisture and instability, the lift mechanism is much more robust on Wednesday (the cold front). Those elevated temps and dewpoints will contribute to instability values on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg of surface based CAPE each day while dewpoints are in the low to mid 60s as previously mentioned. 0- 6km bulk shear values, while fine (25-30 kts), are less favorable for organized severe weather than they are further north where the stronger mid level flow resides. So, the ingredients are there for some strong to severe storms. The lifting mechanism is much less robust on Tuesday, but guidance indicates a weak surface trough and mid level shortwave which will likely be enough to kick off some storms. Despite very strong low level lapse rates, the longevity and strength/height of these storms will be limited by poor mid level lapse rates. Wednesday the cold front will serve as a better lifting mechanism, timed coincident with peak diurnal heating so would expect more coverage of storms and any storms that do form have the chance to produce strong to damaging winds primarily given inverted- v soundings. KEY MESSAGE 3...Cooler and unsettled weather is possible Memorial Day Weekend, but confidence remains low. After high pressure delivers dry and seasonable weather to end the week, attention turns to the holiday weekend. Unfortunately it's not a cut-and-dry forecast at this point (5-7 days out) as guidance remains in two distinct camps. One would result in a cool (or downright cold for late May) and wet weekend while another keeps things dry and seasonable. Up to this point deterministic guidance has indicated a rainy Sat/Sun ahead of a low coming out of the OH Valley while the AI guidance like the AIGFS and ECMWF AIFS keep it suppressed to the south by high pressure, at least through Sunday. Obviously this would have a big impact on the weekend, with respect to both rain and temperatures. For what it's worth, the latest GFS guidance has shown that suppression to the south as well, but can't put any confidence in an individual run. Ensemble guidance continues to show a decent chance of rain for the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18Z TAF Update: This Afternoon and Tonight...High confidence. VFR. Sct'd TSRA possible by the afternoon with continued confidence in impacts between 21 and 00z from BOS, BED, BDL, and ORH. S-SW wind 10 to 15 kt gusts to 25 kt through the afternoon and evening. VFR overnight, with MVFR ceilings across the Cape and Islands. Possible IFR at ACK with areas of fog. Gusts drop off for terminals not on the Cape and Islands after 00z tonight. Wednesday...High confidence. VFR. Scattered TSRA along and ahead of a cold front in the afternoon and evening. S-SW wind 8-10kt with gusts 20-25 kts turning NW behind the cold front between 15-00Z. Strong gusts possible in any thunderstorms. KBOS...High confidence in TAF. KBDL...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday through Sunday/... Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Thursday through Friday: VFR. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. SHRA likely. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Wednesday: High confidence. Small craft advisories remain in effect 12z Tuesday through Wednesday evening. SW winds will be increasing to around 15-25 kt Tuesday and remain so through Wednesday, higher over the southern waters. Seas will also be building to around 4-6 ft, with some 7 footers possible Tuesday night over the southern waters. Mainly dry weather prevails through Tuesday night, although fog may develop both tonight and Tuesday night. Outlook /Wednesday through Sunday/... Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rain showers likely. && .CLIMATE... Record Highs for Tue May 19... BOS 90/2017 BDL 94/1962 PVD 91/2017 ORH 92/1962 Record Highs for Wed May 20... BOS 91/1996 BDL 99/1996 PVD 95/1996 ORH 91/1903 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ002>004. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ003-004. MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for MAZ003>007-010>019- 026. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ006-007- 013>019. RI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for RIZ001>004. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for RIZ001>008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ254>256. && $$ DISCUSSION...BW AVIATION...Hrencecin/FT MARINE...BW CLIMATE...BW/Hrencecin  922 FXUS62 KKEY 191733 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 133 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and humid conditions over the next few days will lead to a generally moderate risk of heat illness with periods of high risk conditions. - Rain and thunder chances will remain on a plateau through tonight, and gradually decline thereafter. - Breezy conditions continue for the Island Chain through this evening. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution across all the Florida Keys coastal waters. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 132 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Scattered showers will continue to move northwest through the Straits into the island chain through the early evening, therefore, VCSH is included at both EYW and MTH. If direct shower impact is to occur TEMPOs will be included for reduced visibilities, lower cloud ceilings, and gusty winds. Near surface winds outside of convection will be easterly at near 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 1124 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines are in effect for all Florida Keys coastal waters through this evening. From synopsis, surface high pressure centered north of Bermuda will continue to promote moderate to fresh east to southeast breezes through tonight. Highest breezes will prevail through this evening. Breezes will then slowly slacken before the weekend with peaks expected during the evenings and lulls during the day. Rain and thunder chances will remain above normal through much of the week. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 440 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 CIMSS products shows a mean layer ridge remains in place across the western North Atlantic. However, embedded within the ridge is an upper level disturbance located to the north of the Bahamas. At the surface, a high pressure system remains in place to the north of Bermuda. Marine observation platforms surrounding the Island Chain are recording mainly east breezes of 15 to 20 knots as a result. Moisture undulations continue to rotate around the ridge with deeper moisture currently moving through as GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) shows estimated PWAT values of 1.8 to 1.9 inches moving through the Keys. KBYX radar has been active for much of the overnight with scattered showers moving in an east to west fashion through the Keys with occasional showers impacting the Island Chain. The showers have been struggling to develop vertically due to the northwest flow aloft attributed to the upper level disturbance to the east. This is tilting the clouds to the south and thus choking off the updrafts causing the activity to weaken as fast as they develop. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows partly cloudy skies throughout the Keys. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower 80s and dew points are in the mid 70s. .FORECAST... Surface high pressure across the western North Atlantic will continue to dominate the Keys weather for the next several days. The high will be at its strongest today with gradual weakening each day thereafter. Therefore, breezy conditions are expected to continue through this evening out of the east with modest slackening afterwards. Moisture is expected to remain elevated through at least Wednesday night before slightly drier air rotates in from the southeast for late week into the holiday weekend. This will result in chances of rain becoming slight chances. Instability will also remain elevated keeping thunder in the forecast throughout the period. Temperatures will remain quite consistent through the week with highs in the upper 80s to occasionally 90 degrees and overnight lows in the lower 80s to perhaps near80 degrees with any showers. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AP Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest  867 FXUS63 KLSX 191732 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1232 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .UPDATE... Issued at 842 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Convective complex continues to nudge southward into Arkansas this morning with stratiform rain spreading through central Missouri and occasionally as far east as the Mississippi River. We have given some consideration to canceling the Flood Watch early as rainfall rates in the stratiform rain region have been quite minor. However, some convective redevelopment along the front noted in southwest Missouri behind the stratiform rain indicates we can still get some higher rainfall rates if this convection spreads northeast. So we will maintain the Flood Watch until expiration at 1PM, but the overall threat is much more limited at this point than it was yesterday. Latest update to the Day1 Convective Outlook from SPC also has shifted the severe threat southeast with the idea that the clouds and stratiform rain will limit instability ahead of the front today until the front arrives near our southeastern CWA border late this afternoon. This is consistent with our thinking as well as the severe weather threat is greatly reduced, with the remaining threat tied to redevelopment of instability ahead of the front which may take quite some time considering the clouds and rain this morning. Kimble && .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms continue today with a more limited chance of severe thunderstorms or flooding compared to prior days. - Cooler and less humid weather arrives behind today's cold front. The next round of more widespread showers and thunderstorms is Thursday night into Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 414 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Latest analysis of radar imagery reveals a complex of thunderstorms working its way eastward across the area. Currently (as of 0730z), the leading edge of this activity is pushing into west-central IL, east-central MO, and points southwestward toward Springfield MO. Over the last few hours, this complex has gradually been weakening with eastward extent, with scattered clusters of convection along the leading edge, followed by widespread stratiform rain. Nearly all of this convection is now outflow dominant with a gust front out ahead of the leading edge producing scattered gusts up to 40mph, which has generally been tied closely to the stronger convective clusters. Steepened mid-level lapse rates (8-8.5 degrees C) and a strong 50kt LLJ are both working to keep convection semi-organized along portions of the leading edge. As a result, this complex of thunderstorms will continue to be capable of 30-40mph winds, with gusts near 50mph possible ahead of stronger convective development that percolate throughout the morning. The favorable environment highlighted above for these potential stronger convective segments is generally along and south of the I-70 corridor. As these showers and thunderstorms continue to filter into the area this morning, the threat for flooding will also continue. A majority if the area received 1-2" of rain yesterday with some locations getting 3-5", generally along I-70 and about 50 miles to the south. Locations that experienced these higher end amounts yesterday will be more susceptible to flooding today. In fact, an additional 1-2" within a 3hr period today may be enough to lead to flash flooding for some locations. High resolution guidance varies significantly on the evolution of showers and thunderstorms today, with the general consensus that showers and pockets of thunderstorms gradually wane into the late morning or early afternoon. Given all of the variables mentioned above, the risk of heavy rainfall has prompted us to continue the Flash Flood Watch, which is now in effect until this afternoon. Residents should continue to monitor the latest forecast and be prepared to seek higher ground if a Flash Flood Warning is issued for your area. Latest surface analysis reveals a surface low lifting northeast into WI, with a cold front stretching southwestward into northwest MO. This front is modeled by guidance to gradually slide southeast throughout the morning, approaching northeast MO by late this morning. Ample low-level CAA and thick stratus behind the front will mitigate the severe weather threat in the post-frontal airmass. Uncertainty remains with how quickly the atmosphere will be able to recover this afternoon/evening. Lingering showers and ample clouds will lower the severe risk or push the risk further south, while less showers/clouds would increase the risk and lead to a more widespread severe storm threat this afternoon/evening. Regardless, instability and mid-level flow are still forecast to be sufficient enough to support organized storms with potential for large hail, and damaging wind gusts. Any lingering outflow boundaries from convection this morning may serve as areas of focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon ahead of the cold front. Peine && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Morning through Monday) Issued at 414 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Low-level cold air advection along with potential lingering cloud cover, within the post-frontal airmass, will lead to much cooler conditions for Wednesday, with highs forecast to be around 10-15 degrees below average. Quasi-zonal flow aloft encompasses the region through the end of the week, which should allow for a period of dry conditions until Friday. By the end of the week, long-range guidance shows a southern stream shortwave lifting northeast and merging into the downstream end of a northern stream longwave trough near the Great Plains. Low-level flow ahead of these features appears to remain easterly, which would limit moisture return along with rain chances. Regardless, the evolution of these features leads to the return of rain chances Thursday night into Friday, with the LREF 6hr probabilities for accumulated precipitation reaching a widespread 80% on Friday for the area. Chances for precipitation look to remain limited this weekend as probabilities stay below 20% for a majority of the area. A gradual warmup is also forecast as LREF temperature IQRs increase to temperatures right around climatological normals by next week. Peine && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Thunderstorms to the south in Arkansas have spread a thick blanket of clouds and light, high based rain showers across our region this afternoon. Beneath all of this, a cold front is pushing southeast across the region. Southerly winds ahead of the front turn to the northwest behind it. Lower ceilings also accompany the front's arrival, with most locations upstream in the MVFR range, but some areas immediately behind the front IFR for a few hours. These lower ceilings likely last through the night and into Wednesday morning before some improvement during the day Wednesday. Although there's an outside chance of a thunderstorm developing in the vicinity of the front this afternoon, the chances are too low to include in any TAF at this issuance. Kimble && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  850 FXUS64 KMRX 191732 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 132 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 131 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 - Very warm temperatures continue for Wednesday with highs roughly 10 degrees above normal. - Scattered to numerous showers and storms return for Wednesday, with continued high rain chances through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 131 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Scattered to isolated showers have popped up this afternoon across Middle TN, but so far the cap has suppressed convective development in our area. Some of the activity to our west could reach our Plateau counties in the next few hours, but coverage should remain isolated. Can't rule out a few short-lived pop-up showers in our mountain zones along the TN/NC border. Convective activity will be greater on Wednesday as the Gulf opens up a bit more and provides some moisture around 850 mb. We will still have a dry layer above that, which will limit coverage and development through dry air entrainment. Shear appear quite weak too, so convection should be short-lived, and the severe threat looks low. Areas along and west of I-75 should have the greatest chance of showers/storms tomorrow, as convection is likely to develop in the Cumberland Plateau with a slow NE movement. PW values jump into the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range on Thursday as a 850 mb low moves into northern MS/AL, opening the Gulf for deep and persistent moisture advection. A boundary will extend from the low across the Plateau into SW VA, acting as a focus for convergence and convective development. PoPs will be categorical across the entire area, with a chance of thunderstorms. Instability and shear will be lacking for any organized severe threat, although some gusty downburts winds and locally heavy rainfall will be possible. A warm, moist southerly flow will continue on Friday as another low pressure system crosses AR and lifts the aforementioned boundary farther north into KY. High PW values in an uncapped environment will again lead to categorical PoPs across the area in the afternoon. CAPE and shear appear a bit higher on Friday, mainly in our southern sections where clouds may scatter enough to enhance afternoon heating, so we will need to keep an eye on the potential for some severe storms as we get closer to Friday. A deep SW flow persists through the weekend and early next week, with broad troughing over the central US. Disturbances ejecting from this broad trough will bring several rounds of enhanced rain chances through early next week, but the timing of these disturbances remains higly uncertain. Overall, the pattern favors continued high rain chances each day. The primary impacts will be lightning and locally heavy rainfall. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 131 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Winds this afternoon at TYS will be in the 10-15 kt range, then drop to around 5 kt near sunset. Some gusty winds and showers/storms are possible tomorrow afternoon, but only near the very end of this TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 89 66 86 / 0 60 40 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 89 66 84 / 0 40 20 90 Oak Ridge, TN 66 88 64 84 / 0 50 30 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 88 63 82 / 0 30 60 100 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...DGS AVIATION...DGS  849 FXUS64 KOHX 191732 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1232 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1224 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Above normal temperatures with 80s to low 90s today, then mostly low 80s the rest of the week. - There are medium to high rain chances each day. There is only a low severe weather threat this evening. - There is a high chance for at least 2 inches of rain by the weekend, and a minor risk for flash flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1108 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Clouds associated with some thunderstorms are moving into the state this afternoon. This will end up being our possible severe threat into this evening, but it still does not look great. The severe threat is a slight risk, level 2 out of 5, but that risk level only covers a portion of the area. The remaining area along and west of I- 65 is under a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5). Things are still looking displaced, but looking at soundings, there is a marginal hail and wind threat around the Land Between The Lakes. Into Wednesday, the focus shifts away from severe weather and towards a flash flooding risk. PWATs continue to be anomalously high through the week, and there is potential for a situation where we get training cells over an area and see a large amount of precipitation as a result. This could result in some minor flooding in these areas. Confidence is increasing, but remains low, making this a medium impact, low probability outcome. We will continue to monitor the QPF over the coming days but use caution this week in areas that are prone to flooding. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1108 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The cold front will slowly pass through Middle Tennessee into Wednesday night, and is expected to stall out just to our south in northern Mississippi and Alabama. This will lead to another higher rain chance south of I-40 Thursday afternoon and evening. PWATs will remain on the higher side through the forecast period, and probabilities of greater than 2 inches of rain by the end of the weekend are still around that 50-70% range. Total QPF has gone up for the forecast period since yesterday, so we will continue to monitor the situation. Temperatures will drop a little after the front to the upper 70s and low 80s, but that's about it for the remainder of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A slow moving cold front will bring widespread scattered showers and storms to all terminals overnight tonight through Wednesday. It is a messy setup, and the chance for overnight storms is low at all terminals maybe aside from CKV. PROB30 groups have been included to capture this low chance. Confidence in timing is better by Wednesday morning with a much higher chance for rain and embedded thunderstorms to impact terminals. Lower MVFR to IFR cigs will accompany the front Wednesday morning. Once the front moves through, SSW winds will gradually shift out of the north. Gusts up to 25 kts can be expected through this afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 68 83 64 81 / 50 90 60 80 Clarksville 67 79 62 78 / 80 100 50 60 Crossville 64 82 61 79 / 10 80 50 90 Columbia 67 82 63 81 / 30 80 50 90 Cookeville 66 83 63 79 / 20 90 50 90 Jamestown 64 84 61 79 / 10 90 50 90 Lawrenceburg 67 82 63 80 / 20 90 50 80 Murfreesboro 68 84 63 82 / 20 80 60 90 Waverly 67 80 63 79 / 80 90 40 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Baggett  851 FXUS64 KOHX 191732 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1232 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1224 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Above normal temperatures with 80s to low 90s today, then mostly low 80s the rest of the week. - There are medium to high rain chances each day. There is only a low severe weather threat this evening. - There is a high chance for at least 2 inches of rain by the weekend, and a minor risk for flash flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1108 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Clouds associated with some thunderstorms are moving into the state this afternoon. This will end up being our possible severe threat into this evening, but it still does not look great. The severe threat is a slight risk, level 2 out of 5, but that risk level only covers a portion of the area. The remaining area along and west of I- 65 is under a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5). Things are still looking displaced, but looking at soundings, there is a marginal hail and wind threat around the Land Between The Lakes. Into Wednesday, the focus shifts away from severe weather and towards a flash flooding risk. PWATs continue to be anomalously high through the week, and there is potential for a situation where we get training cells over an area and see a large amount of precipitation as a result. This could result in some minor flooding in these areas. Confidence is increasing, but remains low, making this a medium impact, low probability outcome. We will continue to monitor the QPF over the coming days but use caution this week in areas that are prone to flooding. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1108 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The cold front will slowly pass through Middle Tennessee into Wednesday night, and is expected to stall out just to our south in northern Mississippi and Alabama. This will lead to another higher rain chance south of I-40 Thursday afternoon and evening. PWATs will remain on the higher side through the forecast period, and probabilities of greater than 2 inches of rain by the end of the weekend are still around that 50-70% range. Total QPF has gone up for the forecast period since yesterday, so we will continue to monitor the situation. Temperatures will drop a little after the front to the upper 70s and low 80s, but that's about it for the remainder of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A slow moving cold front will bring widespread scattered showers and storms to all terminals overnight tonight through Wednesday. It is a messy setup, and the chance for overnight storms is low at all terminals maybe aside from CKV. PROB30 groups have been included to capture this low chance. Confidence in timing is better by Wednesday morning with a much higher chance for rain and embedded thunderstorms to impact terminals. Lower MVFR to IFR cigs will accompany the front Wednesday morning. Once the front moves through, SSW winds will gradually shift out of the north. Gusts up to 25 kts can be expected through this afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 68 83 64 81 / 50 90 60 80 Clarksville 67 79 62 78 / 80 100 50 60 Crossville 64 82 61 79 / 10 80 50 90 Columbia 67 82 63 81 / 30 80 50 90 Cookeville 66 83 63 79 / 20 90 50 90 Jamestown 64 84 61 79 / 10 90 50 90 Lawrenceburg 67 82 63 80 / 20 90 50 80 Murfreesboro 68 84 63 82 / 20 80 60 90 Waverly 67 80 63 79 / 80 90 40 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....BaggettOHX-411728  002 FXUS63 KIND 191736 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 136 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms and locally heavy rain possible again this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds and localized flooding the primary concerns - Cooler mid week with a brief break from rain chances, before showers and storms return to the forecast late week into the holiday weekend && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 950 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Satellite imagery shows clearing across central Indiana with signs of a remnant outflow boundary from upstream convection last night. Thicker overcast skies are found to the west of this outflow boundary, slowly moving eastward this morning. There should be a couple of hours of efficient solar insolation this morning before these clouds arrive. High-resolution guidance that shows the clearing well also depicts rapid destabilization (to between 1500- 2500 J/Kg MLCAPE) through this period. As such, renewed convective activity appears likely again this afternoon. In terms of hazards, RAP soundings indicate that some mid-level dry air may be present today. Shear is modest, under 25 knots on average. However, steep lapse rates and DCAPE values around 1000 J/Kg could lead to downbursts and efficient cold pool production. The 25 knots of shear may also be enough to allow for loose organization into multicell clusters. Therefore, strong to damaging wind gusts are possible with storms today. The wind threat diminishes after sunset as the column moistens and lapse rates weaken slightly. RAP soundings show the atmosphere becoming more efficient for rainfall production overnight (deep warm cloud layer, saturation to the EL, and moist adiabatic lapse rates). A cold front sagging south across Indiana will interact with an MCV approaching from the southwest, prolonging large-scale lift tonight. Most guidance is on board with showers and thunderstorms continuing on and off through the night. There is a signal for heavy rain within most guidance with pockets of 1 to 3 inches across the southern half of our area. QPF coverage in guidance isn't as widespread as yesterday, but these pockets tend to line up where the heaviest rain fell. Additional flooding may be possible tonight and trends will need to be monitored closely. && .DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)... Issued at 342 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Today and Tonight - Quiet but mostly cloudy conditions are expected early this morning. The rapidly weakening northern extent of a line of showers currently over western Illinois will move into the area this morning and may produce some light rain in spots, though somewhat more substantial rain and thunderstorm chances will wait until later in the day when the cold front approaches the region. Ample instability and modest deep layer shear will exist to promote organization of developing convection this afternoon, and at least a localized severe threat, primarily driven by wind, will exist. This threat will persist into the evening hours when the front pushes through. Hydrologic concerns, particularly given precipitable water values near the top end of climatology and widespread significant rainfall yesterday of 1.5 to 3+ inches, will be at least an equal concern to the severe threat, with flash flood guidance values as low as three quarters of an inch in one hour across central Indiana. HREF probability matched means indicate at least a low chance of reaching these amounts in a few areas through tonight, though perhaps not quite enough for another flood watch. Wednesday through Monday - Once the front has pushed south of the area, it will stall out a bit, though high pressure passing through the Great Lakes in its wake will keep it suppressed to the south and allow for both a brief cooldown and a break in precip chances from late Wednesday into Thursday evening. Rain chances return late week into early next week as a large upper level low swings through the northern tier of the country and pulls a warmer and moist airmass back into the area, though chances with the exception of Friday will be low for the time being given significant model inconsistencies and resulting uncertainty. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 136 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Impacts: - Wind gusts today 25-30KT - Showers and thunderstorms possible late this afternoon into tonight - Scattered showers continue into the day Wednesday - MVFR ceilings tonight into Wednesday, IFR possible Discussion: Winds have strengthened this morning to between 15-25kt with gusts of 25-30KT likely through the day, generally from 210-230 degrees. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible late in the day as a cold front approaches and passes through the area. Winds with frontal passage will veer to westerly and northwesterly late in the period, with gusts ending in typical diurnal fashion this evening. Ceilings post frontal will likely drop into MVFR. IFR conditions are possible, but less likely. The placement of rain showers overnight will influence if/where IFR conditions develop. Rain showers continue on and off through tonight into Wednesday afternoon as the cold front slows. These will be scattered in nature so a VCSH group was carried through the end of the TAF period. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for INZ052>055-060>064- 067>072. && $$ UPDATE...Eckhoff AVIATION...Eckhoff DISCUSSION...Nield  008 FXUS64 KTSA 191736 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1236 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1228 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Lingering severe weather concerns across southeast Oklahoma will wind down this afternoon as a cold front exits the area. - Much cooler weather is expected through Thursday, with a slow warming trend then developing into next week. - Rain and thunder chances will continue daily for the next week, with the heaviest and most widespread rain Thursday into Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1134 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A strong cold front has now pushed through most of the forecast area with cooler northerly winds behind it. It will move out of southeast OK over the next two hours. Temperatures have cooled into the 50s to 60s for all areas except south of the front, where temperatures remain in the 70s. Lingering rain showers across much of the area will continue into the evening as warm and moist air rides over the elevated frontal surface, but should diminish in coverage somewhat with time. The severe weather threat will persist near the front for the next hour or two, and then diminish as the front moves south. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to reinvigorate along the upper level front late this evening and overnight, which will be near the I-44 corridor. Overnight lows will be in the 50s across much of northeast OK and northwest AR, with low 60s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1134 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Model guidance suggests Wednesday will be mostly dry, though a few light showers cannot be ruled out, especially during the morning hours. There will be a fairly wide range of temperatures, with upper 60s to low 70s in the north, and mid 70s to near 80 F in the south. Went slightly below NBM as its been much too warm with the airmass observed behind this front. By Thursday, our next storm cycle will begin taking shape, as a trough dives into the area from the northwest, merging with an existing weak low pressure over the Desert Southwest. This will increase both low level warm/moist advection and upper level shear. Multiple shortwaves will pass through the area, kicking off repeated rounds of showers and storms Thursday onwards. As of now, Thursday appears to be the day with most widespread and heaviest rainfall potential. It will remain similarly cool to Wednesday. Model timing uncertainty begins to grow into Friday, but as of now it appears the next most likely window for rain will be late Friday into Saturday morning, with another round Saturday into Sunday. Each of these rounds of precipitation will likely have embedded thunderstorms, but only a low chance for severe weather. If severe weather were to develop, Friday would be the most likely day. The main focus will likely be the heavy rain potential given weak but vertically deep cape and unusually high precipitable water values above 1.5 inches. Over time, depending on how much rain falls and where it falls, this could increase flash or river flood concerns. The pattern looks to remain unstable into the middle of next week with weak troughing keep precipitation chances above normal and temperatures mostly near normal. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Storms are moving away from the TAF sites as of early afternoon, but low cigs behind an outflow boundary and cold front will continue to impact aviation ops. Expect either IFR or MVFR cigs to persist for the remainder of the forecast period. CAMs suggest that coverage of rain and storms should decrease by the end of the day, and then ramp back up after midnight tonight. Left the previous prob30 mention alone at most sites, and thunder mention at the southern sites (KMLC,KFSM). Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 56 70 60 73 / 70 20 60 90 FSM 65 80 64 76 / 60 30 30 60 MLC 60 77 63 75 / 40 30 40 90 BVO 51 67 56 71 / 70 10 50 90 FYV 59 74 60 75 / 70 30 20 70 BYV 59 70 58 73 / 70 30 20 50 MKO 58 75 62 73 / 70 20 50 80 MIO 55 67 56 72 / 70 20 40 80 F10 57 73 61 73 / 40 20 60 90 HHW 64 79 64 74 / 40 30 40 90 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...30  065 FXUS63 KGRR 191738 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 138 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms today, some may be strong southeast of GRR - Cooler and drier air settles in for Wednesday and Thursday - Unsettled weather for Friday into the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 358 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 - Showers and storms today, some may be strong southeast of GRR A decaying area of showers and embedded thunderstorms are slowly pushing east from Wisconsin and Illinois at 345am with some scattered development over Lake Michigan. We expect the main area to move into the lakeshore counties between 600am and 800am. This activity should remain on the weak side given limited instability. It is being aided however by strong low level moisture transport which can never be underestimated. We will be monitoring but this convective activity should remain below severe criteria. The focus will then become the redevelopment this afternoon and early evening along and ahead of the advancing cold front. We are relying on the HREF for timing and location. We expected showers and storms to reintensify southeast of a line from Holland to Grand Rapids to Lansing. Storms should move through our southeast CWA (AZO, BTL, LAN and JXN) between 400pm and 800pm. MUCAPE values are more than adequate, forecast to be between 1,000 and 2,000 j/kg. The best shear lags the front, so deep layer values will only be in the 20-30 knot range. Bottom line severe weather is possible with wind being the main threat especially towards JXN. 35 knot winds at 850mb and 50 knots at 500mb support that thinking. - Cooler and drier air settles in for Wednesday and Thursday 850mb temperatures plunge as we head into Wednesday behind the cold front. +2C to +3C air will be over a large portion of the CWA on Wednesday which will hold highs to the 50s over Central Lower and the 60s to the south. Lows Wednesday night will reach the 30s over Central Lower and we will likely need Frost/Freeze headlines. The cool and dry weather will continue into Thursday as surface high pressure slides through the Great Lakes. Highs on Thursday will be in the low to mid 60s area wide. - Unsettled weather for Friday into the weekend The models continue to show rain spreading back into the Great Lakes from the south and southwest on Friday. The rain chances will linger into the weekend. Embedded shortwaves in a developing southwest flow will be the culprit for the precipitation as will be weak front and surface low. Highs will warm into the 70s over the weekend. The south could see 0.50 to 0.75 inches of rain from Friday into Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 138 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Shower and thunderstorm cells are developing in the vicinity of JXN and pose a risk of microbursts with locally gusty winds around 40 knots over the next few hours before moving east toward Ann Arbor and Detroit. Showers with a lesser chance of a thunderstorm exist around AZO, BTL, and LAN for the next couple hours. Otherwise, the weather of note for this forecast period includes gusty southwest winds becoming northwest this evening, and also areas of MVFR ceilings through Wed morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 358 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 We have extended the Small Craft Advisory on Lake Michigan through 800am Wednesday for all zones between St. Joseph and Manistee. Strong southwest winds to 30 knots can be expected today before switching to the northwest behind the passage of a cold front this evening. The northwest winds this evening will push towards 30 knots as well which is the reason for extending the SCA in time. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...CAS MARINE...Duke  090 FXUS63 KPAH 191738 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1238 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers and thunderstorms will impact the Quad State this afternoon into tonight, with a 60-90% chance of rain peaking this evening. A few isolated strong to severe storms are possible during peak heating, with damaging winds being the main hazard of concern. - Daily rain chances continue over the next week, with at least a 30-50% chance or greater of rain each day. Thursday will be the driest day with rain chances confined to mainly the south. - Temperatures trend below normal after today into the 70s along with a decrease in humidity before quickly rebounding back into the 80s by the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1253 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An MCS upstream this morning across Missouri will set the stage for more unsettled weather later today. Ahead of an approaching cold front, an influx of moisture will cause dewpoints to rise near 70. High temperatures will be unseasonably warm in the mid to upper 80s with the exception of the far west due to more cloud cover. An increase in the pressure gradient will support deep layer mixing in the boundary layer that will yield breezy conditions with wind gusts between 20-25 mph. As a prefrontal mid-level impulse approaches midday, the CAMs differ on the redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms along residual outflow boundaries. The 0z ARW and HRRR keep convection this afternoon more scattered with storms growing more upscale tonight. Meanwhile the NSSL, FV3, and newer hourly runs of the HRRR show more robust convection occurring during the afternoon with a line propagating east. Despite the uncertainly in the timing of storm coverage, rain chances increase late this afternoon into the evening, peaking at a 60-90% chance. Although the SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather (Level 2/5) over much of the Quad State, the shear will be more meager compared to yesterday with 20-30 kts of effective bulk shear at best. However, given a robust MLCAPE axis of 2000 to 3000 J/kg and steep low-level lapse rates of 8.0 to 8.5 C/km, the thermodynamics will still support an isolated severe storm with damaging winds being the main hazard of concern if convection can become organized during peak heating. The main forcing mechanism will be surface convergence as the better upper level kinematics lift more north through the afternoon which may limit the potential. With that said, the other concern will be torrential downpours that will be capable of causing localized flash flooding issues in the typical low-lying locations with PWATs around 1.75 to 2.00 inches. Despite the cold front pushing south of the FA on Wednesday, daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue into the latter half of the week, with a 30-50% chance confined to the southern most counties on Thursday when the driest conditions are progged. High temperatures will also be a few degrees below normal in the 70s along with lower humidity as northerly flow associated with a ~1030 mb sfc high pressure over the Great Lakes region advects in drier air. The more comfortable airmass will not last for long as the front lifts back north on Friday, causing humidity levels to quickly rebound along with a warming trend into the 80s for the upcoming weekend. Isentropic lift will also yield numerous showers and thunderstorms, with a 80-90% chance of rain peaking during the morning hours on the NBM. Daily storm chances then continue into early next week, with high temperatures trending back into the mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Scattered convection will continue to blossom across the region this afternoon, producing brief restrictions to vsby and cigs. Fairly widespread coverage of -SHRA is expected tonight into Wednesday morning, with embedded thunder aspect. Timing of -TSRA is a bit tricky, but for now kept mention primarily during the afternoon and again overnight. Cigs are expected to deteriorate later this evening and overnight, eventually becoming IFR for many areas and stay that way into Wednesday morning. Breezy south-southwest winds today will switch around to northerly tomorrow as the cold front makes passage. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for ILZ083-085>094. MO...None. IN...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for KYZ014-018. && $$ UPDATE...SP DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...SP  060 FXUS63 KTOP 191738 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1238 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cooler airmass keeps highs in the 60s through Thursday as modified Canadian air settles across the area. - Next precipitation chance arrives late Wednesday night into Thursday as a western trough lifts through, but severe weather is not expected given limited instability and quality moisture return. - Temperatures warm through the holiday weekend with highs returning to the 70s and 80s by Saturday into Memorial Day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front pushed through the area overnight, leaving anafrontal showers across eastern portions of the CWA early this morning. Modified Canadian high pressure builds in through the day, bringing drier conditions and a reinforced cool airmass with highs only reaching the mid to upper 60s today through Thursday. The next forecast challenge arrives late Wednesday night into Thursday as a mid-level trough emerges from the Rockies and lifts northeast across the region. Moisture return remains limited ahead of this system, with surface dewpoints struggling to recover into the lower 50s. Instability is expected to be minimal as a result, keeping severe weather probability low with low QPF amounts expected. A warming trend takes hold heading into the holiday weekend as the pattern becomes more amplified and southerly flow returns. Highs climb into the upper 70s by Saturday with lower 80s possible by Memorial Day. Increasing moisture return may bring additional precipitation chances late in the extended period, though confidence remains limited with spread widening amongst the ENS, GEFS and GEPS solutions at this range. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR cloud is slowly dissipating and expect VFR conditions at all sites by 21Z but some uncertainty in exact timing and heights remains with current heights around FL020. Winds should back off and veer slightly as high pressure builds into the region. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Drake AVIATION...Poage  057 FXUS64 KLCH 191738 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1238 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - An unsettled pattern will be in place from late Tuesday into the weekend as the southern jet stream brings a series of upper level disturbances to work with a very moist air mass. - The showers and thunderstorms that develop will have the potential to produce high rain rates and there is a risk of heavy rainfall and a risk for flooding into early next week. - Temperatures will remain on the warm and humid side. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 With a low pressure system along a frontal boundary over the Southern Plains, gradient is expected to stay up enough for southeast winds to bring in low level Gulf moisture. This will allow for low clouds to form under the cap and make for a muggy night. During Tuesday, a cap around 70H is expected to hang around that will help suppress convection for the most part with just some hit or miss type storms during the afternoon. Hot and muggy conditions will continue on Tuesday. The first question in the forecast is for Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Frontal boundary over the Southern Plains will continue to sag southeast and initiate showers and thunderstorms over north central and northeast Texas on Tuesday afternoon. Just how strong this activity gets and the strength of any convective outflow boundary will tell if the forecast area receives any shower activity during the evening into the overnight hours. Some of the CAMs indicate a MCS forming that will be able to make it into the northwest portion of the forecast area before weakening. Therefore, a marginal risk of both severe weather (mainly winds) and excessive rainfall will be outlined to account for this. A shift to a more active pattern will come by Wednesday that looks to last through this week and even into next week bringing high chances for rain and above climo norm precipitation amounts. Generally an upper level trough will be found across the Western US into the Rockies with an upper level ridge over the eastern Gulf and northwest Caribbean. In between the sub-tropical jet will stream over the forecast area bringing mid and upper level moisture from the Tropical Pacific to go along with the low level Gulf moisture. This will allow the forecast area to see a highly anomalous moist air mass with daily PWAT values over the 90th percentile of 1.79 inches and near the Max Moving Average of 2+ inches. Meanwhile, mean layer relative humidity between 100H-50H will be over 80 percent. Warm cloud precipitation processes will also be noted as the warm cloud layer is projected to be from 11k to 15k feet, noting an almost tropical like air mass. So, we do know that there will be several days of high rain chances with possible locally heavy rainfall and a flood risk. WPC has outlined a majority of the forecast area in a Marginal (1 out of 4) or at least a 5 percent chance of excessive rainfall leading to flooding for each day through Friday, and extended WPC hazards keep a risk of heavy rainfall with flooding possible all the way through May 27. What is of a lower confidence is the timing each day of when the precipitation will be the most widespread and at its heaviest. It will not rain all the time, but the timing of each upper level disturbance and if it comes during max daytime heating, will be the story of when the rain chances will be the highest. So each day will be more fine tuned the closer in time we get to each day. Otherwise, temperatures will remain rather warm with humid conditions through the period. 07/Rua && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Mainly VFR with a mixture of MVFR ceilings, along with breezy south/southeast winds will continue into the evening. A few isolated showers will be possible this afternoon, but mainly dry conditions are expected. This evening into tonight, a line of showers and storms will approach from the west/northwest and spread across the area, bringing reduced VIS, gusty winds, and low ceilings through the overnight hours. By sunrise tomorrow, this convection should be dissipated/out of the region however, a few light showers could linger along with MVFR/IFR ceilings. && .MARINE... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Breezy onshore winds will decrease some by morning with light to moderate southeast flow and light to modest seas then expected to persist through the week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase by Wednesday and remain high through the week into the weekend as a stalled frontal boundary and a series of upper level disturbances produce several waves of precipitation. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Expect modest southerly winds to continue through the next several days bringing in rich amounts of Gulf moisture. Afternoon Minimum RH values will be above 60 percent through the week. High chances for daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through the week into early next week as a stalled frontal boundary and a series of upper level disturbances provide waves of precipitation each day. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07 AVIATION...17  112 FXUS64 KSJT 191739 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1239 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe Storms possible this afternoon and evening. - Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday evening through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 133 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening... Cold front just north of Childress at 130 AM expected to move along I-20 mid morning around 9 AM and then slow down as it moves south along a San Angelo to Brownwood line 3-4 PM. While isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected this morning in the Big Country, a larger complex of strong to severe storms is expected to develop in the Concho Valley to Brownwood in maximum heating this afternoon. Complex then moves south and east into the I-10 corridor and NW Hill country this evening. With CAPES of 4000 J/kg and 0-6KM bulk shears of 30 to 35 KTS, supercells with very large hail over 2 inches possible. The complex of storms should move south of West Central by midnight, ending most of the severe weather threat. Precipital water values around 1.5 inches indicate efficient rainfall producers, and localized flooding possible, especially in urban areas. .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An active weather pattern will persist through much of the long term with a persistent upper level southwest flow with disturbances moving across our area. Also, the combination of a cold front south of the area and abundant moisture(PW values 1 to 1.5 inches) will bring a risk of localized flash flooding, especially Wednesday night and Thursday as the WPC has a slight risk of excessive rainfall along and south of the I-20 corridor. Also, there is and isolated flash flood threat this weekend across the southeast part of the area. There are medium to high chances of rain for at least a few days in the long term. Also, there is an isolated severe weather threat(marginal risk) for the southern 2/3 of the area Tuesday evening across the Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau. The main hazards will be large hail and damaging winds. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the upper 70s and 80s, around to slightly below normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Currently VFR at all sites as a cold front moves through from north to south. TSRA are expected to develop off of this cold front later this afternoon and evening, and affect KSJT, KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT during the evening hours. Have kept VCTS and TEMPO groups going from late this afternoon into the evening hours at these sites to address these storms. These TSRA should dissipate by 06Z, after which the cold front is expected to stall somewhere in our southern counties, giving east/northeast to northeast winds for our southern sites, with MVFR CIGs filling in behind the front after 06Z, and remaining through most of the morning Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 61 78 64 78 / 40 30 80 70 San Angelo 62 79 62 80 / 60 40 70 60 Junction 64 81 63 80 / 70 30 80 60 Brownwood 63 79 63 78 / 60 30 70 70 Sweetwater 60 77 62 79 / 30 30 80 60 Ozona 63 80 62 81 / 60 40 70 30 Brady 63 78 64 77 / 70 30 70 70 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...20  213 FXUS61 KBGM 191741 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 141 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes have been made with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Strong high pressure will maintain hot and humid conditions today, with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon and into the evening. 2) A cold front will push through the area tonight into tomorrow, bringing scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Much more seasonable temperatures return for the rest of the week and into the weekend. 3) Memorial Day Weekend could have active weather with seasonable temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Strong Bermuda high pressure off the East Coast, along with the backside of an upper level ridge over the region, will continue to strengthen southwest flow and warm air advection. As a result, hot and humid conditions persist today, with highs climbing into the mid 80s to lowers 90s and dew points remaining in the mid to upper 60s. With the ridge axis positioned east of the area, the region will remain in a more favorable environment for thunderstorm development from late morning into the evening hours. Model soundings show afternoon CAPE values generally under 1000 J/Kg with the NAM having the highest value. Otherwise mid level lapse rates are around 5-6 C/KM with 0-6 KM bulk shear values near 30-40 knots, especially across the northwestern portion of the forecast area. One feature that may help initiate storms is a shortwave moving across Ontario and dipping into the region. CAM guidance continues to indicate pop up showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon, though the severe potential will largely depend on the extent of cloud cover through the morning and whether it lingers into the afternoon hours. Greater clearing by late morning would support increased instability, leading to better thunderstorm coverage and a higher severe threat. A more organized line of showers and thunderstorms is then expected to move through this evening and overnight along the approaching cold front. Temperatures today will once again approach previous set records, though increasing cloud cover ahead of the cold front may keep highs slightly lower than yesterday. Overnight a stronger temperature gradient will develop as the cold front approaches from the northwest. Lows across the northwestern portion of the area area expected to fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s, while northeast PA remains miler with lows in the mid to upper 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2... Cold front moves northwest to southeast tonight into tomorrow morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop along and ahead of the boundary. There remains some uncertainty regarding overall coverage and rainfall amounts, as initial showers will be moving into the very dry air mass that has dominated the region over the past several days. With the front moving through the western portion of the area overnight into tomorrow morning instability is expected to remain fairly limited, especially across the northwestern portion of the forecast area where cooler air arrives first. Cooler highs are expected across the Finger Lakes region, while hot and humid conditions linger longer over the southeastern portion of the region. If thunderstorms are able to develop tomorrow afternoon, the better chance for that setup would mainly be across the Wyoming Valley and Pocono Mountain region where instability will be more favorable. Otherwise instability across much of the area appears rather limited. Colder air will once again filter into the region through the remainder of the week with highs mainly in the mid 50s to mid 60s and overnight lows ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s. High pressure then builds in the area, bringing dry conditions through Friday. KEY MESSAGE 3... Looking ahead to Memorial Day weekend, model guidance pushes an upper level ridge into our region by Saturday with southwest flow returning. This pattern looks to pull moisture up into the east coast from the Gulf. This should allow chances showers to return. An upper level low feature looks to move in from the west sometime Sunday night into Monday with additional shower chance before a weak ridge builds in behind it. If this feature pushes east quickly then a weak ridge could build into the region by Monday afternoon and evening. With the forecast being further out, there is some uncertainty in model guidance for how the pattern will evolve. Temperatures however look to gradually improve over the weekend with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s by Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR will continue until late tonight. Widely scattered showers, and potentially a thunderstorm, could affect the airports along the NY border and over NEPA until early evening...but confidence in occurrence and timing is exceptionally low to include in the terminal forecast. Did hint at the possibility of SHRA nearby to KBGM and KAVP where immediate convection is moving through the area. TCF forecast is also not indicating TSRA at this time. A cold front will approach on Wednesday morning with guidance now suggesting higher confidence in restrictive MVFR ceilings for a period of time around 12Z along with scattered showers. VFR is then expected to return by 18Z. Gusty West winds to 25 KTS this afternoon will abate tonight and then increase again from the NW on Wednesday. Outlook: Wednesday night through Friday...Mainly VFR. Friday night through Sunday...Periods of rain and embedded thunderstorms likely along with associated restrictions. && .CLIMATE... Near record highs expected Today. Below are the current records and forecasted temperatures for Today. Today/Tuesday... KBGM - 87 degrees, reached in 1962 and 1996 (forecast 87) KSYR - 92 degrees, set in 1971 (forecast 90) KAVP - 92 degrees,set in 1962 (forecast 92) && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ES/JTC AVIATION...JAB CLIMATE...MDP  164 FXUS63 KMQT 191740 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 140 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler than normal temperatures today through the rest of the work week. - Up to 35% chance of frost impacting the early portion of the growing season Friday AM. && .UPDATE... Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The going forecast remains on track this morning as the prior day's downward trend in the thunderstorm forecast for the early morning hours this morning proved correct with KMQT radar returns showing a broken line of showers with scattered thunder, mostly clustered in Baraga County and along the state line adjacent to Iron County as of 6Z. Elsewhere, fog is observed ahead of the cold front as moisture- rich easterly and southeasterly flow upslopes from Lake Michigan and upslopes towards the higher terrain of the west half. As the front mixes the boundary layer and winds shift to be out of the northwest, some low stratus and slight chances (mainly 15-30%) of lingering showers is forecast but fog is not expected to persist, so the Dense Fog Advisories will be allowed to gradually expire from west to east as originally intended. Otherwise, the main impactful weather will be the remnant gusty conditions and choppy waters creating conditions hazardous to small craft today and the potential for frost for the morning of the 22nd with the resumption of frost/freeze headlines as agricultural growing season approaches. Despite high pressure dominating the local weather pattern for the work week, cold advection in the wake of the passing trough results in 850mb temperatures being in the 25th percentile or lower relative to the climatology of 850mb temps for this time of year, translating to surface temperatures that are up to 5-10 degrees below normal. The LREF shows up to 35% chances of Friday morning's low falling to 36 or lower, with the NBM deterministic low around that temperature for much of the interior UP. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Amended at 254 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Quiet and benign weather follows the ongoing passage of a cold front for most of the remainder of the week. Isolated to scattered showers linger into today, however instability will likely be elevated and only briefly uncapped in the east/south-central for a few hours at best. Thunder is in the forecast, but strong to severe storms are not expected. Highs in the east half today will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s, lower in the northwestern UP where mid 40s to mid 50s are expected. From there, the low departs to the northeast and high pressure over the Plains replaces it. This maintains over the Great Lakes through most of the work week yielding dry weather until the weekend. Lingering troughing aloft keeps colder northwest flow through Wednesday, resulting in temps between 5-15 degrees below normal; highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 30s. A warming pattern is then expected toward next weekend as mid level ridging slowly builds over the southeast and extends up into the Great Lakes. Another trough over the Rockies on Friday looks to move toward the Upper Great Lakes during the weekend, bringing back precip to the UP. Instability with this is lacking, so impactful strong to severe storms are not anticipated. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 139 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The cold front that brought light precipitation to the area overnight has exited to the east. IFR conditions are currently being observed at CMX and IWD with MVFR conditions at SAW. Northwesterly winds behind the front will bring in drier air, resulting in ceiling and visiblity conditions improving at all sites this evening. CMX and IWD are expected to improve to MVFR tonight, with VFR conditions expected at all sites after sunrise on Wednesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Amended at 254 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 A low pressure moves northeast over Upper Michigan and Lake Superior today. This tightens the pressure gradient and increases northeast winds over the west and north- central portions of the lake to 20-30 kts early this morning. As the low moves overhead, winds become northwest and strongest winds shift from the west half to the east as colder air moves in. Probabilities of gales to 35 kts are 25% or less, highest in the east this afternoon. Showers and storms are expected with this system into this morning, however severe storms are no longer expected. This rainfall will prolong fog over the east into this morning. High pressure returns winds to 20 kts or less by Wednesday afternoon, winds likely maintain light into the weekend. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ267. Lake Michigan... Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ221. Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ248- 250. && $$ UPDATE... DISCUSSION...77 AVIATION...RM MARINE...77  208 FXUS64 KMEG 191741 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1241 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase into this evening, with a Marginal Risk for damaging winds. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist daily into the upcoming Memorial Day weekend. - Past Tuesday, temperatures will be near normal with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the 60s. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 12Z upper air analysis shows an upper-level ridge centered over the Carolinas and a longwave upper-level trough stretching from western Ontario back through Baja California. Late morning surface analysis places a cold front from Lake Superior back to western portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains. Regional WSR-88D radar trends over the past few hours continue to show weakening of last night's convection over the western half of Arkansas. Clouds increased along and west of the Mississippi River with noon temperatures in the middle to upper 80s. The aforementioned remnant convection is continuing to weaken as it moves toward the Mid-South and a few showers have developed over the past few hours. Latest mesoanalysis yields surface-based CAPE values around 3000 J/kg, weak mid-level lapse rates, little if any shear, and precipitable water values just above the 90th percentile for late May. (1.7 inches) This parameter space suggests a messy, pulse-type convective mode can be expected into this evening with damaging winds being the primary threat with a few storms. High freezing levels will limit the overall hail size with any stronger storms. Confidence remains low for any organized convective threat. Little has changed from previous model runs as the weak cold front will stall out across the Lower Mississippi Valley through Thursday. This will bring a continued chance for showers and thunderstorms both days but overall instability will be less favorable for strong to severe thunderstorm development. Long term model trends indicate the front will retreat back north as a warm front Friday as an open wave trough moves into the Southern Plains. This will bring continued chances for showers and thunderstorms into the Memorial Day weekend and near normal temperatures for late May. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A tricky TAF set remains in this issuance as a decaying MCS tracks in over the next few hours, ahead of a cold front and surface low. These features will bring off and on -TSRA and -SHRA over the next 30 hours. CAMs tend to struggle with this summertime-like pattern, especially with thunderstorms, therefore PROB30 seemed to be the best way to handle such. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the afternoon hours before the surface low tracks in MVFR and intermittent IFR conditions through the TAF period. Gusty southwest winds will remain through around 00Z when winds shift more light and variable. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future, with minimum relative humidity values remaining above 40%. Shower and thunderstorms are expected each day, especially during peak heating, lasting into the upcoming Memorial Day weekend. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...AEH  262 FXUS63 KABR 191743 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1243 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost/Freeze expected tonight/Wednesday morning (28 to 33 degrees) between the Missouri valley region east into the Sisseton hills region. - Another round of moisture, mainly Friday. Lower and upper range for moisture is just a few hundredths to a 1/2 inch. - Turning warmer late weekend/early next week, about 10 to 20 degrees above normal (Highs: 80s to near 90). && .UPDATE... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Aviation discussion updated below for the 18Z TAFs. UPDATE Issued at 1018 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Radar shows a few echoes across the CWA under some of these lower level stratocumulus clouds. Sprinkles are already in the forecast so not much for changes there. Temperatures will be cool today with highs mostly in the 50s. Will make a few minor changes to sky cover grids to account for satellite trends. Otherwise, main story will be the frost/freeze conditions tonight and will cover more of that for the afternoon forecast package. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Will leave the frost advisory in place though temperatures still in the low 40s/upper 30s with cloud cover and mid/upper 30 dewpoints, and northwest winds gusting to 15 to 20 mph making frost highly unlikely expect in the most protected/drainage prone areas. Focus for freeze conditions continues tonight with high pressure shifted a little east in comparison to previous forecasts, centered over the Sisseton hills region. This still makes us ground zero for a frost/freeze. From the Missouri river and north of highway 14 NBM temperatures are still down around 30F. NBM upper bound (90th) even has lows in the low/mid 30s so at a minimum a frost. And the NBM has been consistent, leaving little doubt that the area will experience these cold temperatures and related impacts. Additionally, daytime heating still showing up in NAM/GFS/RRFS BUFKIT profiles with shallow CAPE between 2 to 3kft up to about 6kft. Cloud cover dissipates with loss of daytime heating. Evening temperatures are only expected to top mid 50s. Did bring back the mention of sprinkles as well. Aside from frost, some evidence for fog under the high given recent moisture and cool temperatures/lack of mixing. Focus shifts to additional rain chances late Thursday through Friday with southwest flow and then a negatively tilted shortwave. After that flow becomes more zonal and then another trough sets up out west for early next week. This flow regime results in milder temperature trends with NAEFS 850mb temperatures increase to a standard deviation above climo. NBM highs Sun-Tues some 10 to 20F above climo, though starting Friday the NBM 25th/75th range in temperatures begins to expand to 7 to 10 degrees suggesting lower confidence. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG CIGs have generally improved to VFR early this afternoon and are expected to remain that way through the remainder of the day before SKC conditions take over tonight. Light winds tonight will increase from the south on Wednesday with gusts close to 30 knots across central SD (KPIR/KMBG). && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for SDZ004>011-016>023-034>037-051. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TMT DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...TMT  275 FXUS65 KVEF 191743 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1043 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Temperatures will warm up through the week as a dry weather pattern sets up over the region. && .DISCUSSION...Today through early next week. A weak and baggy trough remains across the Western US today which will keep temperatures on the cooler side of normal with some lingering northerly breezes through the day. Heights will gradually rise through the remainder of the week allowing for a gradual warming trend, with afternoon highs returning to near normal Wednesday, and climbing above normal by the weekend. Aside from temperatures, dry conditions are expected through the weekend. Looking ahead, a weak low pressure center may develop across the eastern Pacific early next week which may bring an increase in cloud cover and some very low chances for showers to the higher terrain of northwest Arizona. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Gusty northeasterly winds are expected through mid- to late afternoon, with gusts to 20-25KT early in the forecast period decreasing to 15-18KT. As winds and gusts diminish through late afternoon, gusts will become more intermittent, with some variability in wind direction expected between 020-060 true. After sunset winds back to the northwest, with speeds around 5-10KT through Tuesday morning. Winds will veer to the northeast Tuesday mid to late morning, with speeds expected to remain under 10KT thereafter. VFR conditions prevail. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Gusty northerly to northeasterly winds will continue through this afternoon across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona, with gusts to 20-25KT expected to gradually decrease to 15-20KT through late afternoon. Terrain-enhanced winds along the Lower Colorado River Valley from KIFP to KEED will gust to around 30KT through sunset, diminishing thereafter. Elsewhere, winds will generally follow typical daily directional patterns, with speeds around 8-10KT. Tonight, winds areawide will drop to 5-10KT, with gusty northerly winds returning late in the period at KIFP and KEED, with gusts expected to top out around 25KT. VFR conditions prevail areawide, with a few bands of high clouds around 25kft. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Outler AVIATION...Phillipson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  475 FXUS63 KGRB 191745 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1245 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong winds gusts are possible early this morning as scattered thunderstorms move across the area. - Frost or freeze headlines may be needed Tuesday night and Wednesday night. - Warming back up this weekend with returning chances for showers and storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Scattered thunderstorms will continue to move northeast across east- central and northeast WI early this morning in association with a passing mid-level short-wave and strengthening LLJ. The risk for severe thunderstorms is very low given weak instability, however, any storm may be capable of producing brief wind gusts of 40-50 mph and small hail. On the western back edge of these storms surface obs from SE MN and western WI are showing 40-50 mph wind gusts out of the southeast, indicative of a wake low. As the precipitation erodes to the east expect these stronger wake low winds to make it into central WI over the next few hours. Another round of showers and storms is likely later this mornings as a cold front, currently snaking from far NW WI back toward south- central MN, sweeps across the region. CAMs do show some weak instability (100-300 J/kg) building ahead of the front which could support an isolated stronger thunderstorm, however, the risk for any storms reaching severe limits is low. Behind the front steep low- level lapse rates associated with the CAA regime may spur on isolated showers through this afternoon. Any lingering showers should wane this evening as high pressure starts to build back into the region. The area should remain under the influence of high pressure for the remainder of the week leading to dry conditions. With the high overhead Wednesday night and a dry air mass in place (PWATs ~0.3") lows are forecast to fall near freezing across northern WI which may prompt the need for frost/freeze headlines. The next chance (30-50%) for showers and thunderstorms arrives this weekend as southerly return flow delivers warmer and more moist air back to the region. Global ensembles and long range ML products are not highlighting much of severe storm with this system at this point. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1123 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR stratus deck has persisted over most of the forecast area this afternoon as the cold front continues to progress to the east. Downsloping northwest winds may help scatter out some of the lower clouds later this afternoon and evening, with GRB, ATW, and MTW expected to lift to VFR within the next few hours. BKN MVFR cigs will likely stick around in/near RHI for the majority of the TAF period, though windows for improvement to VFR will be possible. Winds have already shifted to the west/northwest as of this afternoon, with the east-central sites expected to shift within the next hour or two. Gusts between 20 and 25 knots will be possible through this afternoon, before winds subside this evening and overnight with the loss of daytime mixing. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....GK AVIATION.......Goodin  299 FXUS65 KFGZ 191743 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1043 AM MST Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions are in store for much of the week, along with typical afternoon breezes. && .DISCUSSION...Quasi-zonal flow largely remains in control through much of this week. As a result, gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions are expected through at least at least Saturday. Winds look to generally remain light, however weak troughing will keep some typical spring-time afternoon breezes (20-30 mph) over the higher terrain. A weak low looks to eject off the Pacific into the southwest early next week. Ensemble guidance continues to signal towards an increase in PWATs from the resulting increase in moisture advection into Arizona. As of now, a few isolated afternoon showers and possibly thunderstorms look probable over the White Mountains this weekend, then potentially spreading to more of the higher terrain on Monday. Surface moisture at this point still looks fairly minimal, so much of the activity at this time looks to be high-based in nature. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 19/18Z through Wednesday 20/18Z...VFR conditions. Winds are SW-W 5-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts before 03Z, then becoming VRB 5-10 kts. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 20/18Z through Friday 22/18Z...VFR conditions. Winds are SW-W winds 5-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts each day. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Gradually turning warmer. Winds west/southwest 10-15 mph, with occasional afternoon gusts of 20-30 mph each day. Minimum afternoon RH 10-20% today, falling to 5- 15% on Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday....Continued dry conditions with warming temperatures. Winds west/southwest 5-15 mph each day, along with minimum afternoon RH 5-15%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Humphreys AVIATION...Lewandowski FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  549 FXUS61 KRLX 191747 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 147 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Chances for locally heavy rainfall along and ahead of a cold front Wednesday have increased. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across the north and west this afternoon. A decaying complex of storms could bring a marginal threat for damaging wind gusts to southeast Ohio tonight. 2.) A cold front crossing the region Wednesday afternoon and evening brings a threat for damaging winds and localized flash flooding, particularly across the Metro Valley. 3.) Much cooler and drier conditions are expected Thursday. Unsettled weather returns Friday and lasts through the Memorial Day weekend with repeated chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate diurnal cumulus/cumulonimbus development across the region this afternoon amid temperatures climbing into the upper 80s. With relatively weak capping everywhere, at least isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible through loss of heating this evening, most prevalent across the west and north where capping is weakest. Steep low level lapse rates could yield some gusty winds underneath the strongest cores, but the overall severe risk remains fairly low through early this evening.. Attention then turns to tonight as a complex of storms approaches from the west. With the loss of daytime heating and waning instability, this complex is expected to gradually dissipate as it approaches the Ohio River. However, any more robust line segments could still contain marginally severe gusts as they move into southeast Ohio. KEY MESSAGE 2... The main forecast challenge resides with the activity ahead of and along an approaching cold front on Wednesday. Moisture pooling ahead of the front, coupled with strong surface heating, will yield moderate instability heading into Wednesday afternoon with Mixed-Layer CAPE building in excess of 1500 J/kg. While mid-level lapse rates remain rather poor, steep low level lapse rates and DCAPE near 800 J/kg will present a threat for damaging downburst winds. Deep layer shear is expected to remain on the weaker side, generally around 25 to 30KTs, which will favor multicellular clusters. A transient window for supercells may materialize if a brief uptick in shear to 35 KTs overlaps with peak heating. Some mid-level drying could introduce a marginal hail threat in the strongest updrafts, but wet bulb zero heights generally remain above 10-11kft limiting potential for survival of marginally severe hail to the surface. A secondary, and perhaps more impactful, concern for Wednesday will be the potential for training heavy downpours. Boundary flow is forecast to become nearly parallel to the advancing front. This, combined with deep warm cloud depths around 9000 to 10000 ft and precipitable water values pooling to 1.7 inches (above the 90th percentile climatology for this time of year), supports highly efficient rainfall production. Probability matched means HREF/REFS highlight a narrow temporal window between 4 PM and 8 PM for localized heavy rain, clustered primarily across the Metro Valley and adjacent counties. While antecedent soil conditions are quite dry across the area, the intensity of the rainfall could overwhelm the basin response in steep terrain and urbanized environments. A quick 2.5 inches of rain would be sufficient to push small creeks out of their banks and cause flash flooding with lesser amounts causing issues in built up areas. A targeted flash flood watch may become necessary if guidance remains consistent on the placement of the heaviest rainfall axis over the next few model runs.KEY MESSAGE 3... The cold front pushes south of the area on Thursday, allowing most locations to dry out as cooler air filters in. High temperatures will struggle to get out of the 70s on Thursday under the influence of cold advection. This respite is brief, as the frontal boundary shifts back to the north as a warm front on Friday, placing the region in an unsettled warm sector heading into the Memorial Day weekend. The boundary is expected to stall just to our north across the Upper Ohio Valley. Friday currently appears to be the wettest day of the extended period. Depending on the exact placement and amounts of Wednesday's heavy rainfall, antecedent soil moisture could become locally compromised, yielding a conditional risk for additional high water concerns on Friday. Showery activity will continue periodically from Saturday through Memorial Day as a persistent Bermuda high over the Atlantic continues to shunt shortwaves through the Ohio Valley. Through this period, there is no strong signal for organized severe weather, as atmospheric instability is expected to remain rather weak with only periodic upticks in deep layer shear. Temperatures will rebound, bringing unseasonably warm, though perhaps not record-breaking, conditions back to the region for the latter half of the holiday weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the majority of the TAF sites this afternoon into early evening. Southwest winds of 8-12KTs will occasionally gust to 20KTs before subsiding after sunset. Isolated showers or a thunderstorm may develop across northern terminals late this afternoon, but coverage is too sparse for inclusion of anything more than VCSH/VCTS at this time. A decaying complex of thunderstorms will approach from the west tonight - would largely expect this to dissipate before reaching the western TAF sites. On Wednesday, a cold front will approach the region, initiating another round of showers and thunderstorms by the end of the period. Expect cloud bases to lower and southwesterly winds to increase ahead of the front. A bulk of any heavier precipitation will occur beyond the end of this TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: An afternoon thunderstorm passing over a TAF site may promote brief MVFR ceilings/visibilities. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening with the passage of a cold front, likely resulting in periods of MVFR to localized IFR conditions. && .CLIMATE... Slightly more substantial cloud cover may keep afternoon highs today just short of records in several locations. Forecast / Record High Temperatures --------------------- Today, 5/19 | --------------------- CRW | 90 / 95 (1931) | HTS |89 / 92 (1996) | CKB | 89 / 90 (1959) | PKB | 89 / 90 (1964) | BKW | 85 / 89 (1996) | EKN | 86 / 93 (1996) | --------------------- && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP AVIATION...JP CLIMATE...JP  548 FXUS63 KFGF 191747 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1247 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Overnight temperatures could drop into the low to mid 30s west of the Red River Valley tonight, and a frost advisory is in effect. Temperatures drop again to near freezing across all of eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota Tuesday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Getting a few speckles showing up on radar, and KFAR has reported some light rain. Have sprinkles for a while this afternoon as the upper trough axis swings through, but should taper off this evening. Winds and clouds will decrease overnight, and we should drop down close to the freezing mark in most places. Freeze warning and frost advisory headlines will be out by early afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...Synopsis... Large upper trough continues over the Rockies, with a lead shortwave starting to move through the southwest flow into SD. This shortwave is already bringing some light rain showers starting to move in around the Valley City area. The northern portion of the main upper trough will move into the Plains tonight and then off into Ontario tomorrow, with southern vorticity lobe still down near UT and NV. The northern shortwave moving through should help push high pressure down into the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. Winds return quickly back to the south on Wednesday under southwesterly flow aloft. The split trough remains over the western CONUS Thursday, but starts to move out into the Plains Friday into Saturday. A lot of variation in the ensemble members into how exactly the trough comes out and if there is another shortwave Sunday. Blended solution of some precipitation chances and temperatures rising above seasonal averages by Sunday and Monday continues to seem reasonable. ...Rain chances tonight... CAMs and global models in pretty good agreement on showers currently over the James River Valley spreading northeastward through the rest of the afternoon and into tonight. The bulk of the rain will be exiting out of our eastern counties between midnight and 6 AM, although there will be some lingering light showers/drizzle for a while after. All but portions of the Devils Lake Basin have high probability of seeing at least 0.01 of rain, and there is a 50 to 80 percent probability of at least 0.10 inches mainly in southeastern ND into western MN. ...Temperatures into the 30s tonight... Continued cold air advection pushes 850mb and even 925mb temps in some areas down below 0 C tonight. While skies will remain cloudy and there will be at least a little bit of mixing from northwesterly winds, temperatures look quite cold by tomorrow morning. NBM has probabilities 80 percent and higher for temperatures to get below 36 degrees, and even the less bullish HREF has 40 to 50 percent. With the clouds and wind do not think we will get down as low as the base NBM had us, so tweaked lows up a bit. We should stay above 32, but even with not much actual frost occurring the 33 to 36 degree range west of the Red River Valley could cause some issues to sensitive plants. Went ahead and matched neighbors for a frost advisory tonight. It does look to clear out and go light for winds tomorrow night, so better chances for freeze and frost look likely Wednesday morning. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Lingering MVFR ceilings and some scattered light showers/sprinkles will continue into early afternoon. Showers could impact a few of the TAF sites, but mostly just brief light rain and not any reductions to visibility. Should see some improvement to VFR by late afternoon or evening, then clearing out completely later tonight. Winds that are gusting above 20 kts at some airports will diminish, becoming light and variable overnight. The ND airports should see winds start to pick up out of the south to southeast by tomorrow mid-day. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...JR DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...JR  507 FXUS63 KLBF 191746 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1246 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost Advisory and Freeze Warning in effect Tuesday morning. - Dry and cooler through Wednesday when light rain showers return to portions of western Nebraska. - Temperatures will steadily climb day-over-day through the weekend, with a return to 70s and 80s likely by Saturday/Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Temperatures will become cold tonight with lows well below normal. Normal lows are in the mid 40s to upper 40s. Overnight lows will be around 10 to 15 degrees colder than normal lows with temperatures in the 30s. Confidence was greatest in temperatures below freezing for areas across western Nebraska, generally west of HWY 61. For areas east of HWY 61, there still remains lower confidence in temperatures dipping below the freezing mark. Latest models have remained consistent in the low cloud deck sticking around all through the overnight and morning. Cloud coverage are expected to keep temperatures from plummeting below freezing and probabilities of temperatures dropping below freezing levels are around 10 percent leading to higher confidence temperatures will not reach a hard freeze east of HWY 61, thus decided to keep the frost advisory going for this area, instead of upgrading to a freeze warning as lows will hover just above freezing. Cooler airmass and northerly winds will keep cooler temperatures for Tuesday with highs remaining well below normal. Temperatures will struggle to reach the low 60s across the southern Sandhills into southwest Nebraska and will be even cooler across the northern Sandhills with highs in the upper 50s. A front will move northward into portions of southwest Nebraska Wednesday. This area will become the focus for some lift in the area that could lead to a slight chance of rain shower, mainly along and west of HWY 83 across southwest Nebraska where moisture is greater. At this time any rainfall that does occur will remain light, with only around a tenth or less expected. Temperatures on Wednesday will still remain below normal with highs mostly in the mid to upper 50s across most of western Nebraska and the Sandhills. North central Nebraska will be slightly warmer, however temperatures will struggle to reach the low 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Wednesday Night...Precipitation chances will persist into Wednesday evening within return southerly flow behind departing high pressure. A subtle shortwave will cross western Kansas/Nebraska with continued warm air advection feeding light rain chances. NBM maintains appreciable QPF probabilities, with 30-45% potential for seeing 0.25" or more south of a Hayes Center to Brady line. Instability is sorely lacking during this time, so rain should occur largely without thunder. Even with precipitation potential and increasing clouds, a fairly cool night is expected with lows falling into the middle to upper 30s. These values are generally 5-10F below normal for late May. Thursday/Friday...upper troughing will settle south across Wyoming with subsequent height falls overspreading much of the Central High Plains. Increasing lee troughing will promote slightly backed flow resulting in increasing moisture reaching the Front Range. Daytime temperatures will continue to be on the cooler side with highs only reaching the low to middle 60s. NBM median output suggests modest instability developing during the afternoon to our west, with afternoon convection likely to develop along the I-25 corridor. Within strong westerly mid-level flow, showers and thunderstorms should move east into our far western zones towards late evening and persist long enough to reach the Highway 83 corridor. With quickly waning instability, the threat for any stronger storms appears low. Thursday night low temperatures should settle into the lower 40s which will be closer to seasonal norms though continuing to be slightly below normal. By early Friday, the main trough aloft should begin to eject out of southeast Wyoming/northeast Colorado. A surface cool front will settle into our western zones and this coincident with the passing trough axis should herald the end to precipitation chances. NBM suggests rainfall will favor the morning hours with decreasing probabilities after daybreak. Beneficial rainfall appears possible with > 50% probabilities for exceeding 0.50" of rain south of I-80. Decreasing the threshold to > 0.10" shows 50%+ for all locations southeast of a Cody to Brownlee to Bartlett line. While certainly not a drought buster, incremental progress in catching up on the moisture deficit is certainly welcomed. Even with the approaching front and persistent clouds/precipitation, temperatures on Friday should continue the steady climb from the previous few days. Afternoon highs are progged to reach the low to middle 60s for most and upper 60s for our far southern zones. This appears to be the final day of widespread below normal temperatures within the forecast period. This weekend and beyond...upper troughing will quickly lift north into Canada with broad positive height anomalies overspreading much of CONUS. Low-amplitude ridging will establish itself across the Great Basin by early next week. This will lead to continued warming temperatures and daytime highs making a return to 80s and potentially the lower 90s to start next week. Upper ridging does not appear to be overly strong so concerns for any anomalous heat wave remains low. Troughing should approach the Pacific Northwest sometime around Monday/Tuesday. This should effective quell the upper-ridging and return the area to more favorable southwesterly flow around Days 7-8. Because of this, precipitation potential should remain fairly consistent and this aligns with latest CPC Day 6-10 and 8-14 Precipitation outlooks which highlight portions of western Nebraska with a slight lean wetter than normal as we head into June. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through tonight across all of western and north central Nebraska. A weather disturbance will approach the area tonight, with showers developing across portions of the Sandhills and espeically southwest Nebraska Wednesday morning. Surface winds will be north today, becoming south on Wednesday. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ006-007- 009-010-028-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gomez LONG TERM... AVIATION...Taylor  505 FXUS65 KABQ 191746 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1146 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1126 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 - The threat of rapid fire spread becomes more isolated to the lower Rio Grande Valley and surrounding highlands today and Wednesday. - Stray erratic and gusty winds from virga showers will impact a few spots across northwestern and north-central NM this afternoon. - Overnight rain showers and patchy drizzle will give way to afternoon thunderstorm activity over eastern New Mexico Wednesday and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 103 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 While dry southwesterly winds remain over western NM, higher moisture alongside northeasterly to easterly winds resides through eastern NM into parts of the Rio Grande Valley bringing a nice change to the recent stretch of critical fire weather conditions. The strong jetmax rounding an H5 low has ejected out over the Great Plains last night with a loitering H5 shortwave trough over UT/NV this morning. While dry southwesterly flow remains aloft over the Desert Southwest, winds will not be nearly as strong as what was observed Monday. Meanwhile, a potent cold front has backed southwestward across eastern NM bringing gusty northeasterly winds of 35 to 45 mph to areas from Clayton to Clovis overnight. This front will bring gusty easterly to southeasterly winds thru the gaps of the central mountain chain into Santa Fe and Albuquerque around sunrise this morning. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph can be expected before winds veer southerly by mid-day and afternoon, staying breezy to windy all afternoon. While most areas will remain dry, there is enough moisture to allow for isolated virga showers to develop over portions of the northwestern highlands along the Continental Divide into the Tusas and Jemez Mts late this afternoon. Stray and erratic gusty winds with little to no accompanying rainfall will be the main hazard from this, impacting outdoor activities in the area. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning continues to see numerical model guidance advertising the aforementioned cold front through eastern NM which had been ushered back stage east toward TX/OK advance back westward thru the gaps of the central mountain chain into the Rio Grande Valley. With the loitering H5 shortwave still over UT and northern AZ, southwesterly flow aloft remaining over NM will again try to sharpen a dryline feature somewhere N-S along the central highlands Wednesday afternoon. There remains considerable forecast uncertainty regarding afternoon convective potential thru eastern NM. There is a clear demarcation between the moist continental airmass behind the aforementioned cold front and the moist maritime airmass associated with southerly return flow from the Gulf advecting northward into the Permian Basin and southeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. Thunderstorm activity is firing up along this sharp surface boundary over OK into the TX Panhandle this hour. However, this surface boundary will become more diffuse by Wednesday through eastern NM, and numerical model guidance has a wide range of latitudinal solutions of how far north/south the Gulf moisture reaches into eastern NM Wednesday. This yields two scenarios for many areas of east-central and southeastern NM regarding thunderstorm potential. One being the NAM solution which favors the more stable continental airmass further south with relatively lower Td's in the 40s with perhaps just a few stray showers and thunderstorms along a dryline immediately east of the central mountain chain. The second being a more convectively bullish scenario favored by the deterministic GFS where the warmer and more unstable Gulf moisture is further north into eastern NM allowing for scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorm activity first beginning along the dryline over the central highlands of NM before progressing eastward toward TX in the evening. In fact, the SPC has issued a conditionally marginal risk for strong/severe thunderstorm activity thru the southeastern quadrant of the state Wednesday afternoon. Bottom line, Wednesday's thunderstorm potential for eastern NM boils down to how far north the warm more unstable Gulf moisture can push. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 103 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Outflow from any thunderstorm activity Wednesday evening will push low-level moisture back west to and thru the gaps of the central mountain chain again. Dry westerlies advance back east Thursday afternoon as the loitering H5 trough over UT finally gets escorted out of the area and moves along eastward over CO. This shifts any thunderstorm activity eastward along a sharpening dryline feature favored close to the TX border Thursday afternoon and evening. Friday sees continued dry conditions with lighter winds across western and central NM thanks to weaker flow aloft to the northeast of a 575dm H5 low over the northern Baja Peninsula. A cold front backing southward into northeastern NM from CO will advance thru eastern NM and up to the central mountain chain Saturday. With a ridge of high pressure building overhead, this will set the stage for daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorm activity favoring development along the central mountain chain first. Subsequent outflow boundaries look to initiate secondary convection later in the day and evening thru central and eastern NM, with moisture steadily increasing precipitation chances a bit further west each day into early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Patchy MVFR cigs along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts will burn off thru 1pm. Gusty winds below canyons in the RGV late this morning will veer around to the south after 2pm with a 10-20% chance of wind gusts >40 mph between 4pm and 6pm. The main focus later this afternoon will be virga showers developing over the northern high terrain with wind gusts near 50 mph possible from Cuba to Los Alamos, Taos, Santa Fe, and Angel Fire. This activity will taper off after sunset. Low cigs and patchy fog will then return to eastern NM overnight. There is a 50-70% chance of MVFR cigs over east-central and northeast NM with a 20-40% chance of IFR. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 103 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 While a cold front has brought a significant uptick in moisture alongside northeasterly winds veering southeasterly later today through eastern NM, drier southwesterly winds will remain along and west of the central mountain chain. The exception will be early this morning when the aforementioned cold front briefly surges thru the gaps of the central mountain chain into the middle Rio Grande Valley into Santa Fe and ABQ. Any low-level moisture increase from this will be quickly ushered back out by the increasing dry southwesterly winds. Prevailing winds will be considerably less than what was observed Monday, but still strong enough to combine with humidity falling below 10 percent to produce critical fire weather conditions into the middle Rio Grande Valley and nearby south-central highlands south of the Manzano Mountains for several hours this afternoon. This has warranted the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for the middle Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and early evening. A similar setup is favored Wednesday in this area, and yet another Red Flag Warning focused on the southern half of the middle Rio Grande Valley will have to be evaluated. Eastern NM sees the aforementioned cold front bringing lower temperatures and higher humidity ushered back east toward TX this afternoon. The higher moisture advances west each night, getting ushered back east toward TX each afternoon today through Thursday. Any afternoon thunderstorm activity thru eastern NM will favor areas along a sharpening dryline, although there is considerable uncertainty regarding thunderstorm coverage Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 75 42 76 41 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 72 36 73 30 / 5 5 5 0 Cuba............................ 73 42 73 39 / 10 20 0 0 Gallup.......................... 74 35 73 34 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 74 40 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 79 41 77 39 / 5 5 0 0 Quemado......................... 76 42 74 41 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 79 51 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 75 46 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 79 39 78 38 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 84 43 83 42 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 66 35 66 33 / 20 20 5 0 Los Alamos...................... 73 50 72 49 / 10 20 10 5 Pecos........................... 71 43 70 43 / 5 5 30 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 68 42 69 41 / 30 40 20 0 Red River....................... 62 32 64 31 / 40 50 20 10 Angel Fire...................... 64 31 65 29 / 20 30 40 20 Taos............................ 74 40 73 36 / 20 20 20 5 Mora............................ 67 40 67 42 / 10 30 30 50 Espanola........................ 80 48 79 45 / 10 10 10 5 Santa Fe........................ 74 49 72 48 / 10 10 20 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 77 47 75 45 / 10 10 20 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 83 56 82 53 / 5 5 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 84 54 84 50 / 5 5 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 87 53 86 49 / 5 5 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 84 54 84 51 / 5 10 0 0 Belen........................... 86 51 86 47 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 85 53 84 50 / 5 10 5 0 Bosque Farms.................... 86 50 86 45 / 0 5 0 0 Corrales........................ 86 53 85 51 / 5 10 5 0 Los Lunas....................... 86 51 86 47 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 81 54 79 52 / 5 10 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 85 53 84 51 / 5 10 0 0 Socorro......................... 88 56 88 53 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 77 49 76 48 / 5 5 10 0 Tijeras......................... 81 46 79 44 / 5 5 10 0 Edgewood........................ 79 45 77 43 / 0 5 10 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 80 42 77 40 / 0 5 10 5 Clines Corners.................. 72 44 68 44 / 0 10 30 20 Mountainair..................... 79 46 79 44 / 0 5 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 78 47 78 45 / 0 5 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 82 53 81 52 / 0 0 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 76 50 74 50 / 0 5 20 5 Capulin......................... 62 36 59 39 / 5 20 10 60 Raton........................... 67 40 64 41 / 20 20 30 60 Springer........................ 69 42 65 43 / 5 20 20 60 Las Vegas....................... 67 42 64 44 / 0 20 30 60 Clayton......................... 66 42 60 46 / 0 10 20 70 Roy............................. 68 42 61 45 / 0 20 20 70 Conchas......................... 76 47 69 48 / 0 20 30 70 Santa Rosa...................... 76 47 68 47 / 0 20 40 50 Tucumcari....................... 77 48 71 49 / 0 10 40 60 Clovis.......................... 81 50 69 51 / 0 20 50 40 Portales........................ 83 50 71 50 / 0 20 50 40 Fort Sumner..................... 82 50 73 49 / 0 20 50 30 Roswell......................... 89 57 80 55 / 0 20 50 20 Picacho......................... 83 52 77 50 / 0 10 50 10 Elk............................. 84 49 81 48 / 0 5 30 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ106. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...42  567 FXUS61 KCTP 191747 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 147 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Increasing odds for a noticeably cooler and rather wet start to Memorial Day weekend * SPC expanded the marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon into the Lower Susquehanna Valley. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Summerlike heat wave peaks today with record challenging temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s 2) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central PA later today/tonight and south central PA Wednesday afternoon 3) Major cooldown arrives Thursday and lasts into Memorial Day weekend with widespread soaking rainfall likely Friday and Saturday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Summerlike heat wave peaks today with record challenging temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s Another scorcher today with max temps 85-95F approaching daily records (see climate section). Max heat indices are fcst to reach the upper 90s, just shy of heat advisory criteria across the LSV. Record high minimum temps are also on the table for tonight. The one area of uncertainty regarding this temperature forecast is the showers and thunderstorms that have developed over the Laurel Highlands early this afternoon. These may help to keep high temperatures in the low to mid 80s for the areas that see these showers and storms. -------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central PA later today/tonight and south central PA Wednesday afternoon Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to pop up through the rest of the afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass. Wind shear is very weak (0-6 km shear is generally less than 20 knots), so any cells that develop may struggle to maintain themselves for long. That being said, steep low-level lapse rates and dry mid-levels may support a few strong to marginally severe downbursts in any longer-lived storms. The best thermodynamic environment for downbursts is over the Lower Susquehanna Valley, with DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg this afternoon, but dry air may limit the coverage of storms in that part of the forecast area. SPC has expanded the marginal risk of severe storms to highlight this potential. A weakening line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move into northwest PA during the late evening ahead of a cold front. SPC has maintained a slight risk of severe weather across northwest PA as this line may produce strong to severe wind gusts as it moves through. The line will quickly encounter a more stable environment as it progresses southeastward, so the threat for severe wind gusts should quickly decrease as it moves farther into the forecast area. Convective focus shifts to south central PA on Wednesday with narrow plume of weak to moderate CAPE fcst ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Steep low level lapse rates may support a few instances of strong to severe winds. The magnitude & location of the severe threat will be highly dependent on CFROPA timing and amount of cloud cover. SPC MRGL risk (level 1/5) covers the southeast half of the CWA where max temps are fcst btwn 80-90F. ----------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 3: Major cooldown arrives Thursday and lasts into Memorial Day weekend with widespread soaking rainfall likely Friday and Saturday Relief from the early season heat wave arrives in earnest on Thursday with max temps 20-30 degrees lower vs. Wednesday across the southeast half of the forecast area. Strong high pressure slides from the Lower Great Lakes to off the New England coast to close out the week. Model data shows the high channeling southwarddown the east-side of the Appalachians, setting up a cold air damming type event heading into Memorial Day weekend. We may not be bearish enough on daytime temperatures. It also appears probable that periods of soaking rain will dampen at least the start of the holiday weekend. WPC 48hr QPF amounts are quite wet with a widespread 1-2.5 inches fcst from 12Z Friday to 12Z Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail for this hot afternoon. Winds have become gusty with daytime heating and ridging building from our south, gusts could reach up to 25kts. Convection is already being observed over the southwestern airfields, but forcing is weak making coverage and strength of these storms uncertain for the remainder of today. Instability is high enough that any storm that does develop will likely contain lightning until after sundown. The most likely airfields to be impact by these storms through 00Z will be JST and AOO. Tonight, the low pressure system over the Great Lakes will approach from the northwest. This will cause ceilings to lower and bring additional rain chances from northwest to southeast for the day on Wednesday. MVFR ceilings are likely ahead of the cold front at BFD, JST, AOO, UNV, and IPT. The only site likely to experience IFR ceilings will be BFD early tomorrow morning, elsewhere should remain MVFR or better. Lastly, LLWS mentions were included at our northern terminals (KBFD/KIPT) through the evening/overnight hours as 900 mb winds increase to around 40 kts due to pressure gradient between low pressure over Southern Canada & Bermuda High over the Western Atlantic. Outlook... Wed...Restrictions probable through Wednesday night with widespread showers/storms along CFROPA. Thu...Lingering showers across S PA, restrictions possible. Fri...Restrictions likely with rain moving in from south to north, lasting into Fri night. Sat-Sun...Restrictions likely with rain. && .CLIMATE... The following climate sites across central Pennsylvania set new daily high temperature records for May 18th: * A record high temperature of 92 degrees was set in Altoona, breaking the previous record of 91 degrees initially set back in 1962. This record was tied two times previously, back in 1996 and 2017. * A record high temperature of 86 degrees was set in Bradford, breaking the previous record of 85 degrees set back in 1962. ** Note: The high temperature for State College will be reported around 7AM on 5/19. This is due to the State College CO-OP observations running 7AM-7AM. Thus, today's (5/18) high temperature will be reported in tomorrow's (5/19) observation. This record, for reference, is 92 degrees set in 1962. --------------------------------------------- Abnormally warm temperatures will continue on May 19th, thus multiple sites could challenge daily record high temperatures. Daily Maximum High Temperatures for May 19th: * Harrisburg: 95F set in 1962 * Williamsport: 96F in in 1996 * Altoona: 92F set in 1996 * Bradford: 85F set in 1962 * State College: 92F set in 1934, tied in 1996. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl/Bauco KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Bauco DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Bauco AVIATION...Bowen CLIMATE...Beaty  574 FXUS63 KDLH 191748 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1248 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for light showers and sprinkles increase this afternoon into the evening. - Freeze Warning likely needed across most the region for tonight. - Cool temps through midweek with a warming trend into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Early this morning, widespread stratus clouds and lingering showers are moving through the Northland in the wake of last nights low pressure system. As the morning progresses, cold air advection on the back side of the departing system will move into the area. This cool air will lead to steepening lapse rates and the potential for afternoon showers. However, because there is an abundance of low level dry air in place, most of the falling rain will evaporate before reaching the ground. As a result, mostly sprinkles are expected across the majority of the Northland today. The exception will be up toward the Borderlands, where slightly better lower level moisture will allow for some actual traces of rain to reach the surface. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Current Conditions/Today: Widespread stratus has engulfed most the region in the wake of last nights showers and isolated storms. We are also seeing some areas of fog from the Brainerd Lakes Region and extending northeast through the Twin Ports and up the shore. This layer of stable air will keep temperatures cool with highs staying in the 50s under this cloud deck. Satellite is showing a few pockets of clearing over SE MN and western WI where temperatures will rebound back into the 70s helping to reload instability for this evenings convective potential. However, up in our portion of NW WI there are few breaks in the clouds with low clouds still filtering in from the west, so recovery seems limited. A baroclinic zone will still be draped across the Upper Midwest this afternoon with a surface low pressure centered over SE MN. Through the evening and overnight hours several low pressure systems will ride along this boundary boosting lift and helping to fuel shower and storm development. However, satellite trends through the morning hours have not been favorable for instability recovery and our temperatures across the region remain quite cool when compared to our neighbors to the south. The main threat for severe weather will be well off to our south. As such the SPC has pulled the severe risk down to just our SE corner with a marginal risk. Some strong storms can't be ruled out at this time with some damaging winds and hail at times, but the tornado chances are no longer a concern. Showers are expected to become more widespread later this evening. The two focal points for this activity is the low pressure moving along the stalled boundary and an upper level trough pivoting across the Upper Midwest. Targeted timing for rain entering from the southwest is after 9PM with activity departing to the northeast after 8AM. With the reduced risk for thunderstorms our overall rain totals have come down a bit with most the region seeing between 0.10-0.25" Areas that do see thunderstorms will have locally higher amounts, but the overall risk for flooding has diminished. Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday: Northwest flow and surface high pressure builds in from the west on Tuesday. Cyclonic flow aloft paired with remnant moisture will lead to diurnally driven cumulus and isolated sprinkles across northern MN. Temperatures will be on the cool side for Tuesday with highs in the 40s and 50s. Overnight, the high pressure moves over MN with clear skies leading to rapid radiational cooling. Widespread Freeze Warnings will likely be needed across the region. Conditions dry out a bit more on Wednesday with high temps rebounding back into the 50s and 60s. Winds will be light so fire weather concerns are low at this time. By Thursday high pressure departs to the east and we will get southerly return flow streaming back into the region. High temps will continue to climb back into the upper 60s with cooler conditions expected by Lake Superior. Friday-Weekend: An upper level trough is still expected to move across the Northern Plains to end the work week bringing rain chances back to the Northland. Timing of this has been slowed down when compared to previous model runs with 20-30% PoPs now entering Friday afternoon. This will also prompt the return of southwest flow aloft leading to a warming trend. Weekend temperatures in the 70s and some 80s possible with cooler by the Lake still in play. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR ceilings within a cumulus field will linger over the area this afternoon into this evening. Showers within that field may drop visibilities to MVFR for a short time through the afternoon, which I have handled with a TEMPO group for all but KBRD. Northwest winds this afternoon with gusts up to 20 kts to continue through the afternoon, diminishing to 10kts or less after sunset. Expect a gradual lifting and diminishing trend on these clouds and showers late this afternoon and evening, returning all sites to VFR sometime in the 00z-03z time range. Confidence is low on this timing, would not be surprised to see the MVFR stratus linger longer than currently forecast. Once skies become VFR, they should remain VFR through the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the nearshore waters of western Lake Superior today. Northwest winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots expected across most zones through the afternoon. A few lingering showers are possible early this morning before diminishing. Wave heights will generally range from 2 to 4 feet today, occasionally reaching up to 7 feet in the outer Apostle Islands, before subsiding to 1 to 3 feet by late afternoon and evening. Winds become lighter on Wednesday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Cloudy conditions and scattered showers continue early this morning, keeping minimum relative humidity values high today. As cold air moves in today, we will see gusty northwest winds and afternoon sprinkles. Wednesday brings a dry day with light winds as high pressure moves in. Critical fire weather concerns increase for Thursday, which features the greatest chance for low relative humidity dropping to 25 percent along with gusty southerly winds up to 20 mph. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ148- 150. && $$ UPDATE...KML DISCUSSION...Britt AVIATION...LE MARINE...KML FIRE WEATHER...KML  593 FXUS63 KFSD 191748 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1248 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Sprinkles are possible this afternoon across southwestern Minnesota and adjacent portions of South Dakota and Iowa. - Frost and freeze conditions are expected tonight into early Wednesday morning across the area - take precautions to protect sensitive vegetation. Frost/Freeze headlines go into effect late tonight. - Cooler conditions continue this week. Dry weather expected mid week. Another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms is expected from Thursday afternoon through Friday. Severe weather is unlikely. Ensemble output suggest about a 10 to 30 percent chance for a half an inch of rain during this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Cool high pressure settles into the area tonight and will bring a very good chance for temperatures tall to or below 35 for most of the area with temperatures at or below freezing possible north of I- 90. Thus a freeze warning is in place for highway 14 and nearby locations in SD with a frost advisory for the remainder of the area. Isolated pockets of fog will be possible early Wednesday morning but at this time it does not appear as though it will become more widespread. A weak wave will move through the area on Wednesday which could bring a few sprinkles but overall should mainly be an increase in mid level clouds. Otherwise slightly more mild temperatures are expected as southerly flow develops and brings highs back into the 60s for most locations. Another weak wave moves across NE on Thursday and could bring some light showers to the Missouri River corridor into northwest IA. Precipitation amounts will be light as moisture with the system is very limited. A bit stronger and more negatively tilted system will swing through on Friday bringing the next best chance for rainfall. Instability very minor with CAPE values generally 500 J/kg or less. The model soundings do indicate the potential for some efficient rainfall however so maybe some half inch or so amounts will be possible. The latest ensemble output indicating about a 10 to 30 percent chance for more than a half an inch and the latest Nam is indicating a couple of areas with more than a half an inch. Long story short, only minor impacts expected with no severe weather. As this system moves northeast and out of the area a few lingering showers will be possible on Saturday, but warmer temperatures will begin to work into the region. Sunday through the middle of next week will see troughiness to the west and ridging to the east, leaving the area in warmer southerly flow. While there is very little agreement, there should be a couple of weaker waves that could bring showers and thunderstorms to the area, but for now confidence is too low to include in the forecast. Otherwise highs should be in the 80s with lows mainly in the 50s Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Lingering MVFR ceilings are likely east of I-29 through about mid afternoon, with the entire area VFR after this. Some patchy fog will be possible late tonight into Wednesday morning, but confidence too low to include in TAF. Otherwise gusts of 25 to 30 mph likely through the afternoon but quickly diminish this evening. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for SDZ050- 054>071. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for SDZ038>040- 052-053. MN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ071-072- 080-081-089-090-097-098. IA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for IAZ001>003- 012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ013-014. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...08  577 FXUS64 KMOB 191748 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1248 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - A HIGH risk of rip currents is in effect for all area beaches today. - Rain chances increase by mid to late next week, especially over the western half of the forecast area. - Localized patchy fog will be possible this morning and again late tonight into Wednesday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 609 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Overall the forecast remains on track. Current observations do show patchy fog has developed across most of the southern half of the area. Some very localized dense fog is possible this morning; however, coverage and duration does not seem to be enough to warrant a advisory at this time. Anyone commuting or traveling this morning should continue to use caution where fog has formed. BB-8 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1031 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 An isolated shower or storm is possible today mainly across south-central Alabama with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday. Thursday isolated to scattered rain and storm chances shift west of I-65, becoming scattered to locally numerous west of the I-65 corridor Friday. Best chances Friday will likely remain confined to southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama. As we head into the weekend, rain chances remain elevated as a series of weak shortwaves round the northern periphery of upper ridging with scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms possible. Patchy fog can't be ruled out through this morning and again Wednesday morning, with a few spots potentially seeing locally dense fog. Better chances for fog appear to be Wednesday morning across the area. Any fog will develop late into the overnight hours before lifting fairly quickly after sunrise. Outside of the rain chances, temperatures will be warm near or just above normal for this time of year on both highs and lows throughout the week and into the weekend. Highs generally fall in the 85 to 90 range, with some localized lower 90's possible any given day. Lows will remain in the upper 60's to lower 70's for most locations each night through the weekend. A High risk of rip currents today becomes a Moderate risk Wednesday. A Low to Moderate risk of rip currents will exist Thursday into Friday. MM/25 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the afternoon and into the evening hours. By late evening and into the overnight hours, low ceilings of IFR or lower may develop and spread across the area, along with some patchy fog. The greatest potential for dense fog is along and east of I-65. Any fog/low ceilings that does manage to develop will dissipate a little after sunrise. Southeasterly winds of around 5-10 knots will become more light and variable tonight. /96 && .MARINE... Issued at 111 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A light to occasionally moderate southeasterly flow will prevail through Saturday. Seas will build slightly through tonight then diminish Wednesday into Thursday. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 71 88 70 87 / 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 73 87 73 85 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 73 83 72 82 / 0 10 0 0 Evergreen 68 90 67 90 / 10 20 10 10 Waynesboro 70 90 69 89 / 10 30 20 30 Camden 70 90 68 90 / 10 10 20 10 Crestview 70 90 68 91 / 0 30 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  661 FXUS61 KPBZ 191751 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 151 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The forecast remains largely unchanged, with continued confidence in storm arrival in eastern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania after 8 PM tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Highest risk for severe storms/damaging wind gusts will be in areas of northwest PA/eastern OH, with diminishing risk near Pittsburgh. Conditional severe threats remain on Wednesday southeast of Pittsburgh with a departing front. 2) Strengthening signal for a wet Memorial Day Weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Mid-level capping (focused around 500mb per this morning's 12z sounding) is maintained through this afternoon and will keep ongoing isolated to scattered convective activity limited to showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two with a low severe threat. The upper ridge supporting that cap begins to break down in response to an encroaching Upper Midwest/Great Lakes shortwave, with 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE forecast to develop by this evening. A more organized severe thunderstorm threat remains possible in closer proximity to an advancing cold front that enters the area after 8pm. The most likely scenario presented by CAMS remains the development of strong to severe thunderstorms in western Ohio in the 6pm-8pm window along and ahead of the front, perhaps associated with a prefrontal trough. These storms should be weakening as they approach northwest PA/eastern OH after 9pm or so due to diurnal buoyancy loss as well as 20-25 knots of 0-6km shear fostering only loose organization/limited cold pool consolidation. Still, with up to 900 J/kg of DCAPE available north and west of Pittsburgh, strong to severe downdraft winds remain a decent possibility in the taller storms; this is the area highlighted in SPC's day 1 Slight (level 2 of 5) Risk. Hail is a lesser concern due to the lower shear and poor mid-level lapse rates less than 6C/km. Also, with around 100 m2/s2 of 0-1km storm- relative helicity available north of I-80, a tornado cannot be totally ruled out in this area as LCLs lower, although 0-3km CAPE may be a bit low. Convective intensity is expected to wane overnight as the parent cold front moves in, but some showers and storms will continue. Wednesday still presents a limited and conditional severe threat in the Laurels and in the WV ridges. This will depend on frontal timing and the amount of rain/cloud cover in the region during the morning into the afternoon. A slower front, with less precipitation and some cloud breaks out ahead, could allow sufficient destabilization for an isolated damaging wind threat. Scenarios with a faster front and more solid cloud cover could largely choke off the threat for strong convection. This will need to be monitored, and the SPC Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk southeast of Pittsburgh shows the potential threat area well. KEY MESSAGE 2... Probabilities for a soaking rain over Memorial Day Weekend continue to increase as an active pattern persists through that time. Latest guidance suggests a surface low lifts northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley to our west Friday into Saturday, bringing a warm front and widespread rain chances to the region. During that time, surface high pressure is forecast to be centered over the Upper Great Lakes and New England states. This setup is similar to past events that have generated 2+ inches of rainfall across the local area, though it should be noted that minor deviations (e.g., east-west positioning of the low or strength of the ridge) could result in the axis of heaviest rainfall shifting around (or away from) the local area. Latest NBM probabilities show a 60-80% chance for at least an inch of 24-hr rainfall accumulation Friday into Saturday, and a 20-40% chance for 2+ inches. A second wave of rain is then forecast later in the weekend, though that one appears a bit more progressive in nature and NBM probabilities reflect that with only a ~20% chance of exceeding an inch of 24-hr rainfall Sunday into Monday. Still, combined with the preceding Friday-Saturday rainfall, it is looking more possible that weekend totals approach or exceed 1-2 inches, and potentially even 3 inches (20% chance in NBM). It is still too early to discuss impacts as a lot could change over coming days, but this signal will warrant monitoring through the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A shower/thunderstorm at LBE/MGW through mid-afternoon. SW wind is expected to gust to around 20-25kt during the day with mixing. More showers and thunderstorms are expected to track across Ohio late this evening/night in advance of an approaching cold front. It appears that the instability should be diminishing as these storms advance eastward, with an overall weakening trend by late evening. Included PROB30 mentions for most sites across Ohio and western PA, from mid to late evening as these storms approach. Restrictions and showers are likely to continue through Wednesday as the cold front slowly crosses the Upper Ohio Valley region. A few thunderstorms are also possible. Outlook... Restrictions are possible mainly south of PIT Wednesday night and Thursday as a wave of low pressure tracks along the front. Restrictions and showers return from S-N Friday into Saturday as a warm front lifts north across the area. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cermak/CL AVIATION...WM/Lupo  622 FXUS65 KCYS 191750 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1150 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near record cold Monday and Monday night will lead to widespread freezing temperatures, which may damage sensitive vegetation and outdoor irrigation systems. - Slow warming trend by the mid to late week with temperatures near normal by Thursday and Friday. Numerous showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms each day, but mostly Thursday and Friday. - Above average temperatures and pleasant weather expected for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 215 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Relatively quiet early this morning after an eventful Sunday and Monday. Additional storm total snow amounts are trickling in and there are some impressive totals across the mountains and adjacent valleys. Several reports of 12 to 18 inches from south of Rawlins over towards Rock River. The Snowy Range lived up to its name during this event with a few SNOTEL sites reporting over 3 feet of snow and nearly 3 inches of SWE! Accumulating snow has ended across the area with only a few flurries detected on radar. Main forecast concern today and tonight will be the very cold temperatures. Current observations across the area show temperatures in the middle 20s to low 30s. Portions of the area have struggling with cloud cover and/or gusty winds, but both are expected to subside over the next several hours. Kept low temperatures as is with Freeze Warnings in effect. There is also the potential for fog, but it shouldn't be widespread under CAA. Another round of freezing or near- freezing temperatures expected tonight, mainly west of the I-25 corridor. Kept the Freeze Watch in effect to see how this morning's Freeze Warnings do before upgrading. Otherwise, another chilly day Tuesday, but not as cold as yesterday with highs in the 40s to middle 50s for southeast Wyoming, but not as cold across western Nebraska with highs 55 to 60. May see a few lingering snow flurries or sprinkles today near the Colorado border and in the mountains. Slight warming trend for Wednesday and Thursday, but northwest flow aloft will continue...so temperatures during the afternoon will struggle to reach the 50s west of I-25, and 60 for areas east of I-25. Instability will still be present in this pattern, and models tend to underestimate daytime convection. Kept 20 to 40 percent POP for Wednesday with scattered rain showers and isolated thunder expected, mainly where it's warmest along and west of I-25. Some snowpack may remain over Carbon and Albany counties...even on Thursday...which will greatly decrease potential for convection. Even Thursday morning, low temperatures in the upper 20s and low 30s are expected over the high valleys of Carbon and Albany counties. Later on Thursday, models show a potent clipper system out of Alberta Canada digging south into Wyoming and slowing down. Will have to monitor this system for additional mountain snowfall, but expect most of the lower elevations to stay as rainfall. Good forcing with this clipper with another shot of cooler air. Daytime instability will aid in shower and thunderstorm development with CAPE values between 400 to 800 j/kg. Could see some decent rainfall amounts into Friday. Increased POP above 60 percent for most of the area with the likelihood of multiple rounds of showers moving through the region. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 303 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 A secondary vorticity maximum will propagate across our region on Friday, combined with PWAT near the 60th percentile, resulting in another chance for a few showers and thunderstorms with little change in high temperatures from the previous day given the cloud cover. Into the weekend, 500 mb heights rise as weak longwave ridging establishes itself across the Rocky Mountain West, resulting in a warming trend and mostly dry conditions. High temperatures are expected to be near climatology (average high in Cheyenne on May 23 is 67 degrees), with 60s west of the I-25 corridor and 70s further east. The warm up will continue Sunday into Monday as the ridge axis shifts over Wyoming, resulting in above-average temperatures and little to no chances of precipitation. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1141 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 KRWL is currently experiencing IFR to LIFR conditions due to localized fog, but this should begin to clear out over the next hour or two. Thereafter, expecting light winds and VFR conditions all sites through the early night hours. Precipitation may begin to move into KCYS beginning around 22Z and continue into the nighttime hours through around 04Z, with light precipitation then possible for all Nebraska Panhandle sites except KBFF as it appears to be just outside of possible rain. This precipitation will bring lowered CIGs and VIS, which could produce MVFR to IFR conditions for all sites impacted. Winds will also begin to increase, becoming breezy starting around 12Z primarily for Nebraska sites. Finally, fog may be possible again for KRWL tomorrow morning, as well as KLAR and KCYS. Have introduced VCFG for KRWL, along with lowered decks and some BR for KCYS, with higher uncertainty for KLAR and have kept it out of this TAF for now. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for WYZ102-106-107-117. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for WYZ101-115. Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM MDT Wednesday for WYZ104-105-109>111-113-116. NE...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for NEZ095. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...NB AVIATION...CG  715 FXUS61 KBTV 191753 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 153 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 1045 AM EDT Tuesday... Early morning showers have temporarily stabilized the environment with more clouds and impacting the diurnal curve. Adjusted near term data and precipitation chances over the next 12 hours based on current radar and incoming high res data. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 727 AM EDT Tuesday... 1. Unusually warm temperatures continue today into Wednesday before a cold front moves through the region bringing much cooler conditions by Thursday and Friday. 2. Strong to locally severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening with more widespread showers possible overnight into Wednesday. 3. Breezy to gusty winds are expected today through Wednesday. 4. Seasonable temperatures and increasing chances of precipitation expected for the weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 727 AM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Heat will continue today with 925mb temperatures favored to warm into the 20-24C range. This is down from yesterday, but the warmer start this morning will continue to promote hot conditions. Maximum temperatures are favored back into the mid and upper 80s with 90 within reach for a few select locations. Flow will be swinging southwesterly, so Burlington may get a marginal reprieve as air moves across the colder surface of Lake Champlain; upper 80s are favored here. Conversely, eastern slopes will have an increase in temperatures from this wind direction that will promote increased compressional warming off the terrain of the Adirondacks and Greens. 90-93 degrees is more probable for eastern Essex County, NY and for the Springfield, VT area. Around 90 is possible for portions of Rutland/Addison Counties as well. Temperatures are expected to drop by 10-15 degrees for Wednesday, but remain 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages. Warmest spots will be in southern Vermont where there will be potential for more heating ahead of the boundary. Highs in the 70s are forecast with low 80s for southern Vermont locations. Northwest flow will dominate behind the front bringing sharply cooler temperatures for Thursday and Friday with highs likely in the mid/upper 50s, then 60s respectively. This will be around 10 degrees below seasonal averages and around a 30 degree departure from yesterday and today's high. KEY MESSAGE 2: A conditional threat for strong to severe thunderstorms remains as heat continues while dew points rise. Highs in the mid/upper 80s to 90s coupled with dew points in the upper 50s to mid 60s would support a few stronger variety storms. Should any storms fire off, it's probable that outflows would be sufficient to ignite other cells, especially if they interact with lake breeze or move into convent flow around terrain. The biggest issue will be a trigger. Models are showing a subtle 500mb trough moving through late this morning and early afternoon which is what some of the CAMs are highlighting as a trigger. There should be ample cloud breaks to allow for heating which will put the focus on shower/cell initiation over higher terrain. Have increased chances of showers over the Adirondacks coincident with trough timing and as temps on the slopes rise to near 80 degrees which aligns with about noon. The biggest concern will be winds (15%) with a stout low level jet and deep layer of 40+kts extending from 2500-15000ft. There will be about a 5% chance of any storm developing hail this afternoon. The continued absence of strong low level shear means the tornadic threat is very low. Finally, can't rule heavy rain completely out with PWATs in excess of 1.5". If storms fire and a persistent boundary can set up, training cells could occur resulting in localized heavy rainfall. The threat for stronger storms will end around sunset with loss of heating and decrease further behind the prefrontal trough overnight Tuesday. More synoptically induced precipitation is expected as the front begins to moves through tonight along a prefrontal trough and Wednesday as the surface front moves through. KEY MESSAGE 3: Winds will be breezy through Wednesday given periods of low level jet passages and a moderately strong thermal/pressure gradient along and behind Wednesday's front. Gusts 20-35 mph are likely with highest gusts in the northern Champlain Valley and along the Highway 11 corridor in the vicinity of Malone/Ellenburg, NY. Gusts to 40 mph are possible should mixing be more pronounced; model soundings show robust southwest flow aloft with a deep 35-45kt layer 2500-15000+ft. Some model guidance is suggesting a narrow potential at gusts to 40 mph for portions of northern New York tonight, but this will be highly dependent on convection which is less certain. These winds will result in rough lake conditions on Lake Champlain. Lighter winds return Thursday as high pressure moves across the region. KEY MESSAGE 4: There continues to be considerable differences in both ensembles and deterministic models in how shower chances play out for the upcoming holiday weekend. Ensemble members of both the GEFS and ECMWF are roughly split equally on whether waves of precipitation will cross the area Saturday into Sunday. The deterministic ECMWF also favors a wetter solution. Meanwhile, the remaining ensemble members along with the GFS and CMC keep ridging more firmly in place, with the axis running just to our east. This would keep rain shunted to our south and west through the day Saturday and most of Sunday, then trending rainy for Memorial Day. With this much uncertainty, have stayed with the NBM solution for now. Either way, temperatures will be seasonable with highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18Z Wednesday...Conditions are mainly VFR for the next several hours. Spotty showers and thunderstorms will be possibly, mainly at KRUT from 19z-21z, and then a separate batch is possible at KMSS, KSLK, and KPBG from about 03z-07z. Any shower or storm could briefly reduce visibility to 2-4SM for 10-30 minutes. Ceilings will mostly remain at or above 5000 ft agl with scattered cumulus. More appreciable drops in ceilings will be possible after 06z with ceilings trending towards 1500-4500 ft agl. Winds throughout the period will be southwesterly at 7-15 knots with intermittent gusts of 20-25 knots possible, mainly at KMSS. 2000 ft agl winds increase between about 04z and 12z, with west winds at 35-45 knots, and LLWS will be possible for almost every terminal. Flight conditions will generally improve after 12z Wednesday, but there could be some bouncing or pauses between several weak boundaries sliding southeast into Wednesday along with a shift to west or west-northwest winds. Outlook... Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... As of 236 AM EDT Tuesday... A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Broad Waters of Lake Champlain. Winds are expected to increase this morning out of the south with sustained speeds 15 to 20kts and gusts around 25kts. These stronger winds will continue through 8 AM and will diminish to 15 knots or less until the early afternoon; winds then increase again as faster winds aloft mix to the surface. Gusts in excess of 20kts are probable before flow turns more southwesterly. South winds return tonight with stronger gusts possible. A front will pass through the region Wednesday resulting in a wind shift out of the north with gusts up to 30kts. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd/Haynes DISCUSSION...Hastings/Boyd AVIATION...Haynes MARINE...Clay  711 FXUS63 KBIS 191753 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1253 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures remain well below normal through tonight when lows could fall to near or below freezing across much of western and central North Dakota. - Warmer Wednesday through Friday, with medium chances for showers and occasional thunderstorms beginning Wednesday evening. - Above normal temperatures favored this weekend and especially early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Low stratus continue to scatter out across the state as surface high pressure settle over the region. Temperatures are slowly attempting to climb up into the 50s. No updates are needed at this time as the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 857 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Temperatures continue to warm across the state, while low stratus is beginning to scatter out. No major updates at this time as the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 648 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A batch of light rain showers is moving through south central North Dakota early this morning, with some isolated light rain or sprinkle activity to the north and east. Occasional areas of light rain or sprinkles will remain possible across the eastern two thirds of the state through mid to late afternoon as an upper level trough pivots through, with chances diminishing from west to east. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 424 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An upper level trough extends from central Manitoba to the Great Basin early this morning, cutting through western North Dakota. At the surface, the Northern Plains lie between low pressure over Wisconsin and high pressure building over Wyoming. Extensive cloud cover across all but northwest North Dakota has kept overnight temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s thus far. Could still see a few degrees of cooling underneath the clouds, with more rapid cooling and perhaps some patchy fog where the cloud cover clears in the northwest early this morning. Despite much of the Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory trending towards not working out, do not plan on making any cancellations until temperatures begin rising for the day. Strong cyclonic curvature vorticity embedded through the trough will pivot eastward through the state through this afternoon. This keeps low chances for light rain showers and sprinkles in the forecast. The cloud cover should continue to erode from west to east throughout the day, allowing high temperatures to return to around 50 east to near 60 west, still around 10 to 15 degrees below normal. As the upper trough departs to the east this evening, the Wyoming surface high will slide into eastern South Dakota with a ridge axis extending northward through eastern North Dakota. This should provide a favorable set up for strong radiational cooling over the eastern two thirds of the state. The current NBM forecast calls for widespread lows around 30 to 35 across central and eastern North Dakota, which will necessitate another around of frost/freeze headlines late tonight into Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, on the back side of the surface high, which is forecast to line up underneath a low- amplitude mid level ridge, increasing southeasterly surface flow paired with increasing mid to high clouds should keep overnight temperatures above freezing in much of the western third of the state, except perhaps in sheltered areas across the southwest. An appreciable warm up to near or even above normal high temperatures in the 60s and 70s is forecast on Wednesday as a brief period of quasi-zonal flow is established over the Northern Plains ahead of a potent shortwave digging from Alberta southward into the Northern Rockies. The amplifying trough, which could feature a closed mid to upper low circulation along the Montana-Saskatchewan border, will turn flow aloft southwesterly for Thursday before the trough begins to shift eastward through the region on Friday. This could lead to a period of active weather beginning as early as late Wednesday afternoon in northwest North Dakota when high-resolution guidance is favoring the development of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, spreading southward and eastward through Wednesday evening. An ensemble-averaged CAPE/shear parameter space (on the order of 500 J/kg and 25 kts) does not appear to favor stronger convection, but direct surface wind gust output from CAMs shows potential for some gusty winds with any storm that develops, which fits the modeled inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. The highest chances for showers are Thursday into Friday when the NBM paints widespread medium chances (around 40 to 60 percent) across the state, with its axis of highest chances shifting from western North Dakota on Thursday to eastern North Dakota on Friday. A few afternoon and evening thunderstorms could develop each of these 2 days as well, but there is uncertainty in the location of an inverted surface trough which is favored to contain a ribbon of up to around 500 J/kg CAPE. This is also tied to areal uncertainty of the highest QPF through Friday, with ensemble clusters showing a meridional axis of high probabilities for at least 0.25" QPF and medium probabilities for at least 0.5" as far west as against the Montana border and as far east as from the Devils Lake Basin to between the James and Red River Valleys. This leads to total ensemble QPF threshold probabilities per the NBM as broadly medium for exceeding 0.25" and low for exceeding 0.5" across most of western and central North Dakota. Temperatures are forecast to remain closer to normal Thursday and Friday, with highs around 65 to 70 and lows around 40 to 45. But any persistent areas of rain or clouds could cause locally cooler highs or warmer lows on either day. The mid/upper trough is forecast to lift northeastward in time for the weekend. Ensemble guidance then favors a more progressive, high-amplitude wave pattern through early next week with large spread on the timing of troughs and ridges. Even so, there is a distinct warming trend to above normal temperatures, with highs favored to reach the 80s Sunday through Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances remain very low (less than 20 percent) at this time from Saturday onward on account of the aforementioned uncertainty, but this may not be truly reflective of the more active pattern that is being projected. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Conditions will continue to clear out this afternoon across the state. VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. Winds will switch from northwesterly to southeasterly by tomorrow with gusty conditions by the afternoon hours. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Wednesday for NDZ003-004-012-019-020-022-035-041-042-044- 055>062. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for NDZ005-013- 023-025-036-037-046>048-050-051. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan/Johnson DISCUSSION...Hollan AVIATION...Johnson  691 FXUS63 KGID 191752 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1252 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost Advisory tonight into Wednesday morning for areas near/north of Highway 92. - Light rain is expected in western areas during the day Wednesday. A few showers and thunderstorms (non-severe) move in from the west Wednesday night. - Additional showers/t-storms Thursday evening through Friday. The threat for severe weather remains low. - A drying and warming trend is expected this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Temperatures remain relatively cool today behind the system that resulted in multiple rounds of severe weather over the last 3-4 days. Tonight, temperatures are anticipated to drop into the 30s and 40s, aided by light winds and mostly clear skies under surface high pressure. Clouds are then anticipated to increase early Wednesday morning, which should keep temperatures from dropping much below 35 degrees. Nevertheless, this may result in some frost formation, potentially damaging sensitive plants in areas near/north of Highway 92. The Frost Advisory area is "generous," mainly because we are so far into the growing season already. Many areas, especially in southern parts of Howard, Sherman, and Nance counties, likely will not see any frost impact. Wednesday will remain cool, and rain is expected to slide in from the west as an upper trough pushes into the central Plains. Many areas will remain dry, but western zones could pick up 0.05-0.15". Later Wednesday night into Thursday morning, isolated to scattered showers/t-storms become possible, but instability is very limited and no severe weather is expected. Late Thursday night into Friday, another shortwave is expected to cross the northern Plains, bringing more widespread chances for rain and thunderstorms to the region. The severe threat remains minimal, but this COULD bring some relief to drought- stricken areas of western Nebraska. Low rain chances linger on Saturday, but overall things will trend drier and warmer for the Memorial Day weekend as upper level ridging returns to the north/central Plains. After almost a week of near to below- normal temperatures, 80s are expected to return for Sunday-Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1117 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions are favored through the period. FEW-SCT afternoon cumulus will clear this evening, and additional cloud cover arriving from the west early Wednesday morning. Cloud bases may dip to around 4kft by middy Wednesday, but should remain VFR. Some light rain could move in late in the TAF period, but this is more favored to the west of GRI/EAR. North winds today become light/variable tonight before turning to the southeast and east on Wednesday. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ039>041- 046-047. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Mangels  689 FXUS63 KLMK 191752 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 152 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * A line of strong to severe storms is expected to develop ahead of an approaching cold front today. These storms may bring strong gusty winds and marginally severe hail in areas generally west of I-65. * More active weather arrive later this week as multiple rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms are possible going into Memorial Day weekend and into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 323 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Area radars show that earlier convection continues to diminish across the region. In its wake, partly to mostly cloudy skies were noted across the region. Temperatures were generally in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. A few mid 70s were noted down in far southern Kentucky. For the remainder of the overnight period, generally quiet weather is expected. We could see a few light rain showers transverse southern Kentucky over the next few hours. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. For today, the upper level pattern will start off in a trough in the western CONUS with a ridge centered off the southeast coast. From the southern Plains through the Ohio Valley, a broad southwest flow will be seen. Within this broad southwest flow, a shortwave trough axis and associated 75-85kt h5 jet streak will move into the upper Midwest/western Great Lakes. A surface low will move into southern Ontario with a stretched out cold front extending southwestward through the Mid-MS Valley. Ahead of this front, warm advection within the broad southwest flow combined with partly sunny skies will allow surface temperatures to warm into the upper 80s with a few spots touching 90 again. It will fell humid out there today as dewpoints will remain in the mid-upper 60s. This combination of temps and dewpoints will allow surface based instability to develop with SBCAPE values rising into the 2500- 3000 J/kg range. While instability will be plentiful for strong/severe convection, environmental wind fields are not impressive as bulk shear values will remain in the 20-25kt range with higher values off to our west. Enough instability and shear will be available to generate organized convection along the cold front. Based on model soundings and the instability/shear profile, the forecast soundings support mainly multicellular convection that may be able to grow upscale into small linear segments capable of producing damaging winds. Convection looks to move into our western areas later this afternoon/evening. However, the storms are likely to outrun the instability/shear axis out to the west and weaken as they cross the I-65 corridor and head into the Bluegrass region. The highest risk of severe will be generally west of the I-65 corridor where damaging wind gusts look to be the main threat. Some isolated marginally severe hail may occur in some of the stronger cores early in the convective cycle. However, the severe threat will rapidly diminish after sunset with the loss of heating and the better synoptic forcing remain well displace from our region. The surface cold front will push into the region overnight and slowly stall out. While there will be some diminishing of convective coverage overnight, at least scattered shower/storms will linger into the early part of the overnight hours. Lows are expected to drop back into the mid-upper 60s. For Wednesday, surface frontal boundary will remain in the vicinity throughout the day providing a focus for renewed convective development. Overall convective coverage may be slightly higher across our eastern areas. Model soundings again show marginal instability (likely limited by ongoing cloud cover) and weak shear. Gusty winds and marginally severe hail could occur in some of the stronger cores. However, greater instability and better lapse rates will be found to our east across the Mid-Atlantic region. Highs on Wednesday will be cooler with temps remaining in the mid-upper 70s west of I-65 with upper 70s/lower 80s east of I-65. Lingering convection will be possible into the early part of Wednesday night before diminishing. Lows will be in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 323 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 For the long term period, it appears that the aforementioned cold front from the short term period will gradually sink to the south for the LMK CWA and yield a slightly drier pattern for Thursday. Blended PoPs look too high here and are probably being help up by the spatial differences in the model fields. Best chances of any shower/storm activity would be across southern and southeastern KY. Highs will be cooler here with readings in the lower-mid 70s. Lows Thursday night will drop back into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Looking into the upcoming Memorial Day weekend, stalled out frontal boundary to the south looks to lift northward on Friday. An approaching mid-level perturbation within an increasing southwesterly flow pattern will lead widespread showers and storms across the region for Friday. Overall risk of severe looks fairly marginal here given poor low-mid level lapse rates and weak shear. Highs on Friday look to warm into the upper 70s and the lower 80s. Overnight lows will be will be in the mid-upper 60s. Moving into the Sat-Mon period, a southwest flow pattern will remain in place across the Ohio Valley with multiple perturbations moving through within the mean flow aloft. This will lead to episodic bouts of showers and storms through the period. Afternoon highs will likely top out in the upper 70s to the lower 80s with overnight lows in the mid-upper 60s. Given the rather moist airmass that is expected to be in place this weekend, bouts of heavy rainfall will be possible. Total rainfall amounts over the next 7 days across the region will vary, but a swath of 3-4 inch rainfall with locally higher amounts look possible. This rainfall will be beneficial given the recent dryness across the region. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 151 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions will linger early this afternoon before BKN-OVC ceilings move in with a broken line of storms mainly affecting HNB/SDF airports. Elsewhere, timing and duration of the approaching storms is more uncertain, but at the least, everyone has PROB30s for storms or showers this evening. S and SW winds will gradually weaken this evening as storm coverage lessens after sunset. Clouds remain overnight and gradually lower to low VFR/high MVFR ceilings in the east, with lower ceilings out west, dipping to IFR conditions in HNB overnight. Spotty storms or showers linger overnight as well before another round of showers with embedded storms move in from the southwest. By Wednesday morning, showers will continue and slowly drift east. Weak storms may be embedded in these showers as well. Winds will begin shifting out of the north to northwest as well starting in HNB Wednesday morning and slowly shifting in the early afternoon for LEX/RGA. Clouds remain all day Wednesday with MVFR conditions remaining in the west to VFR conditions returning to the east with lingering showers. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for KYZ032. IN...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for INZ076>079-083-084- 089>092. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJ LONG TERM...MJ AVIATION...BKF  714 FXUS64 KOUN 191753 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1239 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Cool, below normal temperatures today through Thursday. Near normal temperatures will return by the end of the week through early next week. - Shower and storm chances continue Wednesday through early next week. A few strong storms may be possible. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front is expected to push southward through Oklahoma overnight into Tuesday morning. Storms have already developed along the front in south central Kansas and will continue to build westward along the boundary into northern Oklahoma through the early morning hours. Storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards. Depending on the evolution/speed of the frontal boundary, there is a chance a few embedded circulations could occur and therefore a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Chances remain very low, but not zero for a tornado to occur. As the front progresses southward through Tuesday morning, the threat for severe weather may decrease with flooding, along with gusty winds and small hail becoming the primary hazards. The cold front should be through the forecast area by late Tuesday morning with most of the shower and storm activity ending by the early afternoon hours. However, if they front slows down and/or stalls, there is a chance that a few strong to severe updrafts could develop if temperatures have a chance to warm ahead of the line. Based on current trends, there is a lower chance for this slower front solution. Following the front, temperatures will be nearly 20-25 degrees cooler than yesterday with highs in the 60s to 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 There is some signal for isentropic showers and storms late Tuesday evening across western north Texas and into southern and central Oklahoma. These elevated storms could become strong with gusty winds and small hail. Wednesday and Thursday will feature increasing shower and storm chances thanks to several disturbances in the southwesterly flow aloft coupled with the continued presence of the subtropical jet. Temperature are expected to remain below normal in the 70s through mid-week with light east southeast surface winds. The potential for severe storms remains low, but a few strong storms with gusty winds and hail may be possible. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A subtropical jet, with perturbations within the broader mid-level flow, will overspread the southern Plains through next weekend. This continuous mid-level flow will support daily thunderstorm chances through the weekend across our area. At this time, there is low confidence in severe weather during this timeframe. Temperatures will continue to be closer to seasonable through early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The cold front is through all TAF sites with north northeast winds expected through the period. Breezy winds will diminish through the day with wind speeds less than 15 knots by the afternoon. Showers and storms are lingering through across portions of central into southeast Oklahoma. Additional scattered showers and a few thunderstorms may develop later this evening and into the overnight hours. Confidence is low on the exact location of the scattered showers, along with the probability for thunder chances. Thus, the current TAF issuance includes PROB30s for showers and/or storms at all sites except WWR/DUA where chances and confidence were even lower. Amendments will be made where necessary. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 54 71 58 72 / 50 20 60 90 Hobart OK 53 74 57 75 / 40 20 80 80 Wichita Falls TX 57 77 60 77 / 50 20 70 90 Gage OK 46 70 52 71 / 10 20 80 80 Ponca City OK 52 70 56 72 / 40 10 60 80 Durant OK 64 79 65 77 / 50 40 60 90 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...23 SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...23  729 FXUS62 KGSP 191753 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 153 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The forecast continues to trend wetter and cooler late this week through the weekend. The aviation discussion was updated to reflect the 18Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A cold front will approach the area tomorrow and then stall nearby through the weekend bringing a cooler and wetter forecast. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: A cold front will approach the area tomorrow and then stall nearby through the weekend bringing a cooler and wetter forecast. The synoptic pattern currently features upper ridging extending along the east coast with an upper low associated with a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) just off the southeast coast. Farther upstream, broad troughing extends from the west coast through the Mississippi Valley with a plethora as embedded waves and impulses. A surface cold front is also draped along the Ohio Valley and is slowly making its way southeast towards the Appalachians. Heading into tomorrow, the upper ridge will begin to break down and shift offshore with at least some degree of weak moisture return continuing into the Carolinas. At least one more hot day is expected on Wednesday with upper 80s to low 90s common. As the cold front pushes into Tennessee, a few isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible across the mountains. While some timing uncertainty remains, guidance is in generally good agreement that the front will push into the area on Thursday with greater coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. By Friday into the weekend, a sprawling surface high slides out of the Great Lakes and into New England and southeast Canada. This allow for at least a weak cold air damming wedge to set up shop and persist perhaps through the weekend and into the start of next week. By this time, deep layer southwest flow is progged to reside from the Gulf Coast into the Mid-Atlantic with several embedded perturbations. Associated moisture and bouts of forcing combined with ascent atop the wedge boundary is expected to keep a noticeably wetter and cooler pattern in place for at least several days. This will feature highs in the mid 70s to low 80s with daily rain chances. No organized severe weather threat or flooding threat is apparent at this time, just a beneficial rain that will at a very minimum help keep the drought from getting worse. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the period. High clouds continue to drift across the area, but no restrictions are expected. High clouds may increase in coverage tonight into tomorrow as a front slowly approaches the area from the west. Otherwise, winds will be generally light and out of the southwest with a few isolated gusts possible. Outlook: An approaching front and increasing moisture will bring a more active pattern for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms beginning Wednesday afternoon and then continuing through the end of the week. The potential for overnight fog/low clouds will increase as well. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ TW  896 FXUS61 KILN 191757 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 157 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to timing/pcpn chances tonight. Trended pops upward for Wednesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Strong to severe storms are possible late this afternoon and evening. 2) Showers will linger into the day on Wednesday. As the cold front moves to the southeast, a cooler airmass will settle into the region for Thursday. 3) Periods of rain with embedded thunderstorms are expected Friday with additional chances for precipitation through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) A mid level short wave will move east-northeast across the Ohio Valley region this afternoon into tonight as a cold front slowly drops southeast into our region overnight. Moist southwest flow ahead of this will allow for decent moisture advection up into our area with PWs nudging up to around 1.8 inches or so heading into the overnight hours. Meanwhile, ample sunshine across our area this afternoon has helped push MLCapes into the 1500 to 2000 J/KG range early this afternoon for areas along and northwest of I-71 and these will likely continue to increase a bit more over the next few hours. While the better deep layer shear will generally remain off to our northwest, 0-6 km shear values in the 20 to 25 knot range will develop into mainly our northwest areas later this afternoon and into this evening. While some isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the instability gradient through mid afternoon, expect a more consolidated axis of showers and thunderstorms to move into the area from the west late this afternoon and into this evening, before likely weakening as in moves into our eat/southeast and the forcing and instability begins to wane later tonight. With the low level shear fairly weak, expect the main threat to be damaging winds, especially given DCAPES are already in the 1000-1200 J/KG range across our northwest. With the potential for some stronger updrafts in the better instability, some large hail may also be possible early into the event later this afternoon/early evening. Expect the best chance for severe to be along and northwest of the I-71 corridor, with the highest chance across our far west/northwest. While the activity will be fairly progressive, locally heavy rainfall will be possible given the elevated PWs. This could lead to a lower end flooding threat, especially for areas across our Indiana counties, where 1 to locally 2 inches of rain fell with Monday's event. KEY MESSAGE 2) A secondary mid level short wave will ride northeast along the front on Wednesday, helping to slow the southeast progression of the front. Expect fairly widespread shower activity to linger into the day on Wednesday and with the potential for some weak instability across our southeast, some embedded thunderstorms will be possible into the afternoon. Any lingering pcpn across our southeast should taper off heading into Wednesday evening. A cooler airmass will be in place across the region on Thursday with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. KEY MESSAGE 3) Additional rounds of mid level energy will lift northeast through the Ohio Valley Friday into the weekend. Models are suggesting a surface wave may develop on Friday, leading to widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms. In continued moist southwest flow, temperatures will moderate through the weekend. The potential will exist for additional chances for showers and thunderstorms into the weekend but this will be at least somewhat dependent on the timing and placement of the mid level energy. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Scattered cu has developed across the area this afternoon in an increasingly unstable airmass. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible over the next several hours. A better chance for showers and thunderstorms will then overspread the TAF sites late this afternoon into this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and the chance for a few embedded thunderstorms will then linger into the overnight hours as the cold front moves southeast through the area. As the front moves through, southwest winds will shift to the west and then northwest/north overnight into Wednesday morning. Cigs will also lower into MVFR and then possibly IFR late tonight into Wednesday morning. Additional shower chances and MVFR cigs will then persist into Wednesday afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Friday into Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGL AVIATION...JGL  875 FXUS63 KJKL 191756 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 156 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and mainly dry weather will persist through this afternoon. - Showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast later today and tonight, with active weather expected to continue through the upcoming holiday weekend. - The switch to an active and wetter pattern yields temperatures closer to normal readings, and is likely to provide at least temporary relief from developing and ongoing drought conditions. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1017 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 Another very warm late spring day is underway across eastern Kentucky with temperatures already in the 70s to around 80F on their way to around 90F. Some isolated convection is still possible near and west of the Pottsville Escarpment this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, only minor revisions were made to bring T/Td/Sky forecast into line with hourly observations. UPDATE Issued at 628 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 An update is out with minor revisions to hourly Sky and PoPs through this evening based on observed and model trends. Also updated latest hourly T/Td/Sky grids. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 300 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 Upper ridging will gradually get nudged southeast through Wednesday as a cold front reaches the area and begins to stall near or over the area Wednesday afternoon. This stalling, or at least slowing down, of the cold front occurs as the upper flow becomes parallel to the cold front orientation. PoPs gradually increase from the west through Wednesday as the front approaches. Most if not all of the forecast area will stay dry today with the ridging trying to hold tough to the east and southeast while the front slowly makes progress, with highest chances at showers or a thunderstorm in the Bluegrass region. Chances for rain increase into the evening and overnight as mid- level heights begin to gradually fall, as shortwaves move up the Ohio River Valley, mostly but not completely skirting Eastern Kentucky. If a storm, or storms, were to reach the forecast area late this afternoon into this evening, there is sufficient shear and possibly instability to support an isolated severe storm in the Bluegrass region. The front reaches the CWA from the northwest late Wednesday afternoon, with a mid-level speed max of 35 to 45 kts developing during the day just north of the area possibly providing enough shear for an isolated strong to severe storm in the afternoon should sufficient instability exists, which looks likely at this time. The SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook expands the Marginal Risk into far eastern parts of the forecast area, but future outlooks may extend that further into the forecast area based on the forecast evolution and placement of this mid-level speed max. Highs will again threaten records in the upper 80s to lower 90s today, but temperatures will begin to trend lower as humidity and rain chances increase from the west and northwest for Wednesday, with current forecasts suggesting lower to mid 80s across the area, warmest in the Upper Big Sandy Basin where rain is likely to hold off the longest into the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 300 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 If the long term period could be summarized with just one word, it would be wet. The period will open Wednesday night with broad ridging over the southeastern US and troughing over the Hudson Bay. This will leave Kentucky in a regime of generally weak southwesterly flow aloft. With broad ridging over the southeastern CONUS, the surface cold front that passed through during the day on Wednesday will struggle to continue it's forward momentum through into the Mid- Atlantic coastal states. Instead, it's currently poised to stall over the periphery of the ridge (TN area to the Mid-Atlantic) Wednesday night and Thursday, before lifting into Kentucky again as a warm front on Friday. This pattern will bring multiple rounds of rain to the forecast area. As such, WPC has introduced multiple Marginal (Level 1 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlooks for the forecast area; one for our entire area Wednesday and Wednesday night (though expect most of the rain to fall during the day Wednesday in the short term portion of the forecast), another for the Lake Cumberland area on Thursday, and a third for our entire forecast area again on Friday. QPF does not look overly impressive on any given day; LREF guidance shows the chance of exceeding 0.5 of rain on any given day is low to moderate (maxing out at around 50% on Wednesday). However, this does not account for enhanced rain rates in any thunderstorms that do develop. If storms track over the same area for multiple days in a row, isolated instances of nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out. This is especially true closer to the KY/TN border, which will feel the greatest impacts of the stalling front. However, it should also be mentioned that the Lake Cumberland Region is in a moderate to severe drought - so any higher rain amounts that fall here will likely be beneficial. Thursday looks to be the coolest day of the period. Following the frontal passage, CAA via postfrontal winds will keep maxTs generally below normal, with a defined thermal gradient over our forecast area as the front stalls. Currently, the NBM is outputting highs in the upper 60s to low 70s for the north and upper 70s for the southern CWA. The previous forecast package noted that the NBM had 80s in the southern CWA, which appeared to be an outlier compared to other guidance given the frontal passage, and had to be manually lowered - so it's good to see the latest NBM has corrected this issue. After the front lifts northward again on Friday, flow will become more southerly across much of eastern KY, and temperatures will begin another warming trend accordingly. The NBM's highs on in the upper 70s and low 80s may be slightly overdone given that rain is likely going into Friday afternoon (80-90% chance), but will see how this continues to trend as we move forward in time. Unfortunately (for outdoor activities) or fortunately (for drought relief), this weekend also looks to be quite wet. The boundary will remain planted north of the CWA across the Ohio Valley, keeping much of Kentucky in the warm sector with good moisture advection. This will pair with a slow-moving upper level trough over the central CONUS (strengthening SW flow into the Commonwealth), in addition to potential embedded impulses moving across. The combination will result in rain chances from Saturday through Monday, peaking during the afternoon when heating/mixing/instability will be at it's max. Temperatures during this 3-day period will be fairly steady-state, if not increasing slightly each day as southerly flow continues. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, while overnight low will be in the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the daytime hours, but will deteriorate gradually from the northwest through the period with the approach of a cold front. Look for an extensive cumulus field this afternoon with PROB30 groups to account for the low potential of diurnally driven shower activity. Additional probabilities are noted later tonight and on Wednesday as the cold front nears. Winds will be the south to southwest at 6 to 13 kts again with some gusts of 15 to 20 kts for this afternoon, highest at KSYM and KIOB. These winds will diminish near sunset, but more exposed sites will see a variable to southerly wind around 5 kts or so. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEERTSON SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...FAGAN/JMW AVIATION...GEERTSON  855 FXUS64 KSHV 191756 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1256 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening, particularly across the northwestern ArkLaTex. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats, and a spin-up tornado or two is not out of the question, - Widespread rainfall will continue on a daily basis through the course of the next seven days, resulting in total accumulations of 4 to 7 inches. - As soils become saturated from repeated rounds of rainfall, the risk of flash flooding will become a concern through late this week and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An initial wave of showers and thunderstorms is pushing through extreme southeast Oklahoma into southwest Arkansas at this hour, along a boundary out ahead out the main cold front draped across southern Oklahoma and north Texas. As the front pushes east and south today, a complex of strong to severe thunderstorms will develop further along the front's southern extent, advancing into the ArkLaTex this afternoon into the evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the principal hazard, along with large hail north. The threat for tornadoes is comparably low, though a brief spin-up is not out of the question altogether. Finally, training areas of heavy rainfall may lead to localized flash flooding, particularly in urban areas across the western ArkLaTex. Today's wave of strong thunderstorms should run its course by late this evening, diminishing in intensity as it makes southeastward progress, but the rainfall will just be beginning, as the front responsible for the storms slows its progress and becomes nearly stationary, stalling near or along the I-20 corridor. A series of weak upper level disturbances embedded in the southwest flow will trek northeastward over the region through the remainder of the week and into the weekend, tapping into the firehose of moisture which will be aimed at the ArkLaTex throughout the course of this forecast period. It bears mentioning that this does not mean a week's worth of continuous rainfall, per se, but we do expect frequent enough impulses to result in high confidence of at least daily rounds of showers and a few rumbles of thunder. The persistent nature of this set up is also elevating the potential for flash flooding. The ArkLaTex is included in at least lower-end risk flood outlooks through the remainder of the week. The most recent accumulation forecast totals suggest at least 4 inches of rain across the region, with the highest totals in the 5 to 7 inch range. Bear in mind, these totals will be accumulated through the course of the next 7 days, not in a single event, but as soils become saturated with daily rainfall by late this week, it will not take as much additional rain to result in flooding. Reinforced by southerly flow, warm conditions will continue this afternoon, before this wet pattern puts a dent in the well-above average temperatures of the past few days. Highs will settle into the low to middle 80s by late in the week, with lows in the 60s throughout. /26/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Ceilings have largely recovered to VFR early this afternoon and will largely prevail through the rest of the afternoon and evening, with the exception of temporary drops to MVFR (and possibly IFR) within thunderstorms. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon ahead of the main line of thunderstorms currently moving across SE Oklahoma. The main line of thunderstorms will affect TAF sites later this afternoon and through the evening, with gusty and erratic winds expected, vsby reductions, and very heavy rainfall. Vsbys and ceilings will then fall area-wide in the wake of storms overnight tonight before then struggling to improve before the end of the TAF cycle at 20/18z. Winds this afternoon will be breezy out of the S at 10-15kts with rather frequent gusts to 20- 30kts, then becoming more variable generally out of the E overnight and Wednesday morning at under 10kts. CK && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Spotter activation may be needed areawide through early this evening. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 71 84 70 82 / 80 60 70 90 MLU 71 85 69 85 / 80 70 70 80 DEQ 66 81 65 77 / 40 50 60 70 TXK 68 84 67 81 / 50 50 60 80 ELD 68 83 66 81 / 70 70 60 90 TYR 69 82 68 79 / 80 70 60 90 GGG 69 83 69 81 / 80 70 60 80 LFK 72 85 71 83 / 70 90 60 90 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...26 AVIATION...23  957 FXUS62 KRAH 191758 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 158 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * The backdoor front arrival on Thu has trended slower, thus highs have been nudged upward for Thu. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 120 AM Tuesday... 1) Hot and mainly dry through Wednesday. 2) Rain chances will return Thu, with daily above-normal chances persisting into early next week. The highest rain coverage and amounts are still expected to be Thu afternoon through Thu night. && .DISCUSSION... As of 120 AM Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Hot and mainly dry through Wednesday. Confidence remains quite high that we'll see continued anomalously hot weather, near-record or record-breaking in some cases, as strong ridging near the surface through the mid levels persists. The latest HREF carries through with what the previous days' LREF indicated, with mid level heights over NC in the 99th percentile through tonight and just a slight reduction to 95th percentile for Wed. And 850 mb temps will sit above the 95th percentile for the date, as low level thicknesses hold around 20 m above normal with deep daily mixing. Highs will continue to be in the low-mid 90s across central NC both Tue and Wed. The deep mixing and resulting drop in afternoon dewpoints into the 50s is what will keep our max heat index values under 100F, however our daily Heat Risk will peak at level 2 of 4 (Moderate), with isolated patches of level 3 of 4 (High), suggesting heat that is unusually intense and which could lead to heat illnesses, especially for those most sensitive to heat. And given the generally light breeze with lots of sunshine each day, the WBGT index will be elevated as well. As such, in addition to frequent water breaks, spending time resting in the shade is encouraged, especially for those working or exercising outdoors. KEY MESSAGE 2... Rain chances will return Thu, with daily above- normal chances persisting into early next week. The highest rain coverage and amounts are still expected to be Thu afternoon through Thu night. A potent shortwave trough tracking through eastern Canada and New England Wed/Thu will take a cool high pressure area across the northern Great Lakes and St Lawrence Valley, pushing a backdoor front southward through the Mid Atlantic region. Models have been trending slower with the front's arrival, bringing it into our northern areas early-mid Thu afternoon before pushing the front just S of the CWA early-mid Thu evening. This slowing will allow for warmer prefrontal temps, particularly across the S where the cooler air will be last to arrive. Expect highs from the low-mid 80s near the VA border and Triad to around 90 in the Triangle and low 90s (and isolated mid 90s) in the far S. Given the slower frontal push, expect minimal pops prior to midday Thu, with just slight shower chances Wed evening in the far N. As the mid level ridge breaks down allowing for an increasing mid level southwest flow (although initially still fairly weak), minor perturbations aloft will track from Baja California across the S Plains into the S Appalachians. An increasing low level tap of moisture from both the Gulf and Atlantic will push PW levels above normal, and with increasing isentropic upglide along the southward- moving front, pops are likely to ramp up quickly Thu afternoon, continuing well into the night. Strengthening SW 850 mb flow will force increasing ascent along the front, which could lead to isolated heavy rain totals and propagating cells on the SW side of convection. The overall CAPE and deep layer bulk shear will be on the low end Thu, thus no severe weather is expected, and thunder may be limited to just isolated. By Fri, the surface high to our N will be shifting E off the Northeast coast but still extending down through central and W NC as a damming wedge. While the transitory nature of the parent high should curb the duration of this event, there should still be enough clouds and overrunning flow atop the low level CAA for high surface- based stability with limited insolation, favoring cooler temps, esp over the Piedmont where highs will be held in the low 70s, while SE areas of the CWA along and SE of the wedge front see highs in the mid 80s. As is always the case with even weak or brief wedge events, the greatest temp uncertainty will be either side of the wedge boundary, thus confidence in Fri highs remains low. The wedge should be vulnerable to dissolution by Sat, allow temps to rebound back above normal, although not to early-week heat levels. With a persistent long and wavy SW flow from N Mexico into the Carolinas combined with high low-level moisture flux from the Gulf and Atlantic through the weekend and into early next week, our rain chances are expected to remain above normal, focused on each afternoon and evening Fri through Mon. This would be a welcome respite from our ongoing drought conditions. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 158 PM Tuesday... VFR conditions are generally expected at the TAF sites over the 24 hour TAF period. An exception to this will be if fog is able to move far enough inland. A similar airmass will be in place tonight, which should allow for the formation of fog tonight in a similar location as this previous morning. Thus, kept the tempo for sub-VFR visibilities and potentially low ceilings at FAY. Otherwise, this afternoon expect southerly to southwesterly winds at around 8-12 kts, with a few gusts up to 18 kts possible and mostly clear skies. Outlook: Flight restrictions will return on Thursday as a cold front brings the next chance for showers and embedded storms along with gusty winds to the region. Sub-VFR ceilings also look to persist into Friday in the Triad and potentially RDU as a CAD regime looks to set up over the region. Daily shower/storm chances will also be possible through the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 19: KGSO: 96/1911 KRDU: 95/1962 KFAY: 96/2022 May 20: KGSO: 95/1917 KRDU: 96/2022 KFAY: 99/2022 May 21: KRDU: 96/1941 KFAY: 99/1941 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 19: KGSO: 68/2018 KRDU: 70/2022 May 20: KGSO: 68/2022 KRDU: 69/2019 KFAY: 71/2022 May 21: KGSO: 67/2022 KRDU: 71/1898 KFAY: 71/2025 May 23: KFAY: 72/2011 May 24: KGSO: 69/2019 KRDU: 70/2011 KFAY: 72/2000 May 25: KRDU: 71/2019 KFAY: 71/2019 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hartfield AVIATION...LH CLIMATE...RAH  992 FXUS64 KLUB 191759 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1259 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1242 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible across the Rolling Plains this evening. - Cooler temperatures and daily precipitation chances expected through early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The cold front has exited the region this morning leaving breezy north to northeasterly winds in its wake. These breezy winds are expected to continue for the next couple of hours. On the upper levels, a broad trough will persist across western CONUS. An embedded upper shortwave passing over the Rockies this afternoon will trigger the development of a surface low over northern New Mexico. As a result, winds will begin to shift to the east to southeast through the afternoon and evening. Winds are expected to weaken slightly with the shift in direction, however we will still see wind speeds of 10 to 20 mph the rest of the day. Despite the breezy winds this morning and early afternoon, the rest of today is expected to be pleasant. Cooler air following the front will bring a much needed break from the hot temperatures. Highs today will warm to the lower 70s to lower 80s once the clouds clear out. NBM has backed off on precipitation chances for this afternoon. However, an isolated thunderstorm or two remains possible across the southern and eastern Rolling Plains this evening. Any storms that do develop are expected to clear out of the region around midnight. The rest of the night will be quiet with lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s. The cooler temperatures will continue into Wednesday. The aforementioned upper trough will remain stagnant over western CONUS, however a secondary trough will dig down across western Canada before passing across the northern Rockies. This will trigger the development of another surface low Wednesday afternoon, this time over Colorado. This will keep moderate to slightly breezy east to southeasterly winds through the day. Plenty of moisture will fill in overnight due to southwesterly flow aloft and easterly surface flow resulting in mostly cloudy skies for most of Wednesday. Hindrance of daytime heating due to clouds and easterly winds will keep temperatures cooler with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through much of the day Wednesday. Upper lift will be provided by a jet associated with the upper trough over northcentral CONUS as well as a passing embedded shortwave. Storm chances are expected across northwestern zones Wednesday morning and expand across the rest of the region through the day. Moderate instability through the first half of the day will bring mostly rain showers. However, CAPE values increasing up to 1500-2000 J/kg later in the afternoon and evening could bring the chance for some severe thunderstorms. Only small to quarter size hail and some severe wind gusts are expected with any severe storms that develop. With PWAT values reaching up to 1.5", especially off the Caprock, we could see bouts of heavy rainfall with potential for some localized flooding Wednesday evening and overnight into Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The long term forecast will start off with the continuation of thunderstorm chances and heavy rain potential through much of the day Thursday as a passing shortwave prolongs upper forcing. The upper trough that was over northcentral CONUS will dig further south along the Rockies shifting upper winds aloft to the west by late afternoon. This will effectively cut off the subtropical moisture return. With the lack of available moisture, we will see a lull in precipitation chances overnight Thursday into Friday morning. As for temperatures, with the precipitation chances through much of the afternoon and lingering cloud cover, temperatures remain cool with highs in the 70s across the region. We will see a slight warm up on Friday with highs in the 80s. However, a cold front is progged to push through the region later Friday afternoon through the evening aiding in "cooling" temperatures again through the weekend although only to the upper 70s to lower 80s. Daily precipitation chances will be possible everyday through the rest of the long term. After the lull overnight Thursday through Friday morning, shower and thunderstorm chances return following the passage of the cold front. Precipitation chances will continue through the first half of next week with the passage of multiple upper shortwaves. The uncertainty at the moment will be the amount of moisture available for storm development with drier air aloft as westerly flow aloft prevails over the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Skies will clear and NE winds will diminish through this evening. MVFR CIGs are likely at all sites by early Wednesday morning, with LIFR and reduced visibilities possible at KCDS. These will persist through the end of the current TAF period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...19