904 FXUS64 KOHX 191608 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1108 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1108 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Above normal temperatures with 80s to low 90s today, then mostly low 80s the rest of the week. - There are medium to high rain chances each day. There is only a low severe weather threat this evening. - There is a high chance for at least 2 inches of rain by the weekend, and a minor risk for flash flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1108 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Clouds associated with some thunderstorms are moving into the state this afternoon. This will end up being our possible severe threat into this evening, but it still does not look great. The severe threat is a slight risk, level 2 out of 5, but that risk level only covers a portion of the area. The remaining area along and west of I- 65 is under a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5). Things are still looking displaced, but looking at soundings, there is a marginal hail and wind threat around the Land Between The Lakes. Into Wednesday, the focus shifts away from severe weather and towards a flash flooding risk. PWATs continue to be anomalously high through the week, and there is potential for a situation where we get training cells over an area and see a large amount of precipitation as a result. This could result in some minor flooding in these areas. Confidence is increasing, but remains low, making this a medium impact, low probability outcome. We will continue to monitor the QPF over the coming days but use caution this week in areas that are prone to flooding. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1108 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The cold front will slowly pass through Middle Tennessee into Wednesday night, and is expected to stall out just to our south in northern Mississippi and Alabama. This will lead to another higher rain chance south of I-40 Thursday afternoon and evening. PWATs will remain on the higher side through the forecast period, and probabilities of greater than 2 inches of rain by the end of the weekend are still around that 50-70% range. Total QPF has gone up for the forecast period since yesterday, so we will continue to monitor the situation. Temperatures will drop a little after the front to the upper 70s and low 80s, but that's about it for the remainder of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 546 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR will continue today with south winds gusting 20-25 KT. An approaching cold front will set off scattered thunderstorms starting this evening for CKV and perhaps BNA/MQY. Scattered showers and storms will gradually spread across the area late night into Wednesday morning. Confidence on exact timing is low. Brief impacts to cigs/vsby and gusty winds will occur with the storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 91 68 83 64 / 10 50 90 60 Clarksville 90 67 79 62 / 30 80 100 50 Crossville 85 64 82 61 / 20 10 80 50 Columbia 90 67 82 63 / 10 30 80 50 Cookeville 87 66 83 63 / 30 20 90 50 Jamestown 88 64 84 61 / 30 10 90 50 Lawrenceburg 87 67 82 63 / 10 20 90 50 Murfreesboro 90 68 84 63 / 10 20 80 60 Waverly 91 67 80 63 / 30 80 90 40 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....13  378 FXUS66 KLOX 191613 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 913 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS...19/858 AM. There will some warming today and Wednesday with lighter Santa Ana winds. Beginning Thursday there will be a return to cooling May Grey conditions which will last through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...19/913 AM. ***UPDATE*** Light offshore flow continues this morning with still some breezy northeast winds, mainly in the LA mountains and the Santa Susanas. Gusts into the 30s are possible in those areas, but outside of that winds are expected to be 25mph or less. Winds shift around to west-southwest by afternoon in most areas except the higher mountains where light northeast flow will continue into Wednesday. The warming trend will continue today with most areas warming up by a few degrees over yesterday. Warmer valleys may touch 90 today while intermediate areas away from the coast will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. ***From Previous Discussion*** A return to onshore flow and a weak eddy will bring some low clouds to the coasts on Wednesday morning. Skies, otherwise, will be sunny. The gradients will be on the light side and there will be no wind issues. The coastal temps will not change much, but the rest of the area will see a couple more degrees of warming. A few 90 degrees readings are possible in the warmest vly locations. Continued onshore trends will bring moderate onshore flow to the area on Thursday. The marine layer clouds will respond in kind and most of the coasts and some of the lower vlys will wake up to low clouds. The onshore flow will also delay clearing to the late morning. There will be a little stronger seabreeze as well as a return to gusty afternoon winds in the Antelope Vly. A multi day cooling trend will kick off with max temps falling 1 to 3 degrees across the csts/vlys (max temps may rise another degree or two across the far interior) .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...19/1226 AM. May Grey will return during the xtnd period. At the upper levels there will be fairly weak flow. At the sfc there will be steadily increasing onshore flow. By the weekend there will be moderate to strong onshore flow. A more robust marine layer will likely develop each night through morning. The clouds will push a little deeper into the vly each day as well. By the weekend some beaches will struggle to clear. The increased onshore flow to the east will produce moderate southwest winds across the Antelope Valley and foothills during the weekend. Fridays will see the biggest drop in temps with most areas falling by 4 to 6 degrees. A few more degrees of cooling are slated for Saturday and then little change is forecast for Sunday and Monday's temps. Highs over the weekend will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s across the csts with upper 70s to mid 80s for the vlys. As is typical with strong onshore flow, the csts/vly temps will be below normal while the interior temps will be a few degrees over normal. && .AVIATION...19/0903Z. At 0840Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1900 ft deep, with an inversion up to 3400 ft and a maximum temperature of 17 C. Very good confidence in CAVU TAFs. KLAX...Good confidence in CAVU TAF. Any east wind component will be AOB 4 kt. KBUR...Good confidence in TAF. Wind speeds may be off by up to 5 kts and 30 degrees during peak winds. && .MARINE...19/201 AM. For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels, except for localized pockets of near SCA NW winds during the afternoons and evenings. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. There is a 40 percent chance of SCA winds on Wednesay afternoon/evening. Otherwise through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. Local SCA winds may occur again later today and Wednesay evening off the coast of Point Dume, across the San Pedro Channel, and in the Santa Barbara Channel. Otherwise through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Rorke AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...Black/Schoenfeld SYNOPSIS...30 weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  415 FXUS65 KSLC 191614 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1014 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will gradually warm for the remainder of the week, reaching values up to 10F above seasonal normals by late in the weekend. Conditions will be generally dry, with the exception of northeast portions of the forecast area on Thursday. - Despite the warmer temperatures, there is a chance of isolated freezing temperatures for some outlying Utah valleys Wednesday morning. && .DISCUSSION...The cold Pacific Northwest storm system has pulled away from northern Utah this morning, with one trailing weak wave on the back edge expected to move out of the area today. In the wake of the storm system, most Utah valleys saw areas of freezing conditions, with a few hard freezes reported. High temperatures today will still be on the chilly side, with maxes averaging 10F below seasonal normals. The influence of the last exiting wave has a low chance of producing a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain, with conditions otherwise remaining dry. Temperatures are on track to steadily warm through early next week under the influence of a broad ridge, currently sitting off the Pacific coast. This ridge will initially be slow to build eastward, and this will allow a storm system to move over the front side of the ridge and into the area during the day Thursday. This will act to temporarily curb the warming trend over northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. Associated precipitation will likely be confined to northeastern portions of the forecast area, with snow levels staying relatively high on account of the warming trend. For the weekend, confidence is increasing that the Pacific ridge will shift east, bringing more substantial warming to the forecast area. By Sunday, maxes are expected to average 10F above seasonal normals, with the very warm temperatures continuing into Monday. For day seven and beyond, there is some indication of the arrival of another storm system to make things less mild across the area, but details remain murky this far out. && .AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions are expected to persist at KSLC through the TAF period. Dry conditions will clear skies with typical diurnal wind shifts expected. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected to persist across all TAF sites. Dry conditions will yield clear skies throughout the period with generally diurnal winds expected to occur at each TAF site. && .FIRE WEATHER...Temperatures will steadily warm through the week, reaching values around 10F above seasonal normals by late in the weekend. Conditions will be on the dry side with light winds for much of the week, with the exception of Thursday. A storm system will temporarily curb the warming trend and bring a low chance of wetting rains to northeast Utah. The system will also bring some breezy winds, which could bring some locally critical fire weather conditions to some southern Utah valleys Thursday afternoon. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan AVIATION...Worster For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  442 FXUS66 KMTR 191615 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 915 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1026 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 - Diurnally driven winds, with onshore winds during the afternoon and early evening. - Above normal temperatures continue through midweek with seasonal temperatures returning late week && .UPDATE... Issued at 914 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 Clear skies across the region this morning with much lighter winds compared to this time yesterday. Temperatures across the lower elevations are running up to 10 degrees cooler than they were yesterday morning. Oppositely, temperatures across the higher elevations are running warmer than they were yesterday morning. Highs today will be in the 80s across the interior and 60s to 70s along the coast. Higher end forecasts suggest some potential for high temperatures to reach the low 90s across interior hot spots (North Bay valleys, East Bay hills, southern Santa Clara Valley). && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1026 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 (Tonight through Tuesday) The forecast appears to be on track, with broad upper level troughing holding over much of the western U.S. while high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific. The good news, is that our breezy offshore winds have eased substantially leaving us with fairly calm weather in return. Tonight, skies will remain clear and temperatures will generally fall into the 50s for the valleys, perhaps upper 40s for some coastal sites and the southern Salinas Valley. At higher elevations, a thermal belt will exist as temperatures fall into the mid 50s to low 60s and may still have some northerly winds. For those in the valleys, winds will generally be light and variable. Tomorrow, another warm day will be on tap. The question will be, how do the temperatures pan out? Offshore flow won't be as prevalent, which means there could be less of a downsloping / warming of the air affect. But, that upper level high slowly creeps towards us and the marine layer is essentially negligible. Opted to blend a bit of the observations from Monday to the NBM giving us a similar forecast, to what occurred yesterday. The interior Bay Area valleys should make it into the 80s, perhaps near 90 degrees, while coastal communities experience a tighter gradient of highs in the 60s to low 70s. The San Francisco Peninsula should be similar, with the Pacific side having temps range from the mid 60s to low 70s, while the Bay side ranges from the upper 70s to mid 80s. And finally the Central Coast, interior locations rise into the mid 70s to mid 80s, while coastal communities vary from the mid 60s to the low 80s. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1026 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 (Tuesday night through next Monday) No major changes to the extended forecast. Upper level troughing looks to keep hold over the western US through at least Wednesday, with that Pacific high slowly peeking into northern CA. This should bring a return of onshore flow to the region and eventually the marine layer. Warm weather looks to linger through at least Wednesday, with Thursday potentially seeing a slight change in temperatures if the marine layer develops. Guidance for Thursday caps it at 500ft at best, with the marine layer getting to 1000ft by Friday. The marine layer appears to better establish itself Friday night into Saturday, likely getting to around 1000ft again. Will need to keep an eye on this as it will affect how temperatures pan && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 436 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR through the forecast period. There is a 15-25% chc of seeing MVFR CIGs by the very end of the TAF period. Not high enough confidence to include in TAF just yet. Breezy onshoreflow expected again this afternoon. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Light NE flow expected this AM then switch onshore this afternoon with gust up to 20 kt. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Hedging toward the 20-25% for some CIGs developing by 12Z Wednesday. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 914 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 Fresh northerly breezes will continue over the northern outer zones through tomorrow with hazardous conditions through Thursday morning. Wave heights increase again on Thursday with increasing northwest swell that eases for the end of the weak into the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...MM MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  560 FXUS63 KGID 191617 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1117 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The next chance of precipitation will come Wednesday (20-30%) and Wednesday night (40-70%). A mix of showers and non-severe thunderstorms may deposit up to 0.1-0.5" of precipitation. - Periodic thunderstorm chances return each day between Wednesday and Sunday. - Highs through Thursday will remain in the upper 50s to mid 60s. A multi-day gradual warm up back to the 80s will then transpire over the weekend. - A few patchy areas of frost will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for mainly Valley, Greeley, Sherman, Howard, Nance, Merrick and Polk counties. && .UPDATE... Issued at 129 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Today we will finally take a pause from the mention of severe weather as there will be no chance for any sort of precipitation today. A more stable and cooler airmass has now blanketed the area and will keep conditions generally more quiet for the next few days. Winds this morning blowing out of the north to northwest between 15- 20MPH and gusting as high as 25-30MPH, will gradually slow down later this afternoon and evening as higher pressure filters in near the surface. Highs through Thursday will mainly stay in the upper 50s to mid 60s with overnight lows returning back to the mid 30s and 40s for the next at least three nights. The potential for frost will make its return back to possibly a limited northern portion of the area Tuesday night. With lows nearing the mid 30s and with calming overnight winds, frost formation could be possible in a handful of locations north of I-80 (mainly across Valley, Greeley, Sherman, Howard, Nance, Merrick and Polk counties). If this trend continues, a Frost Advisory will need to be considered for these locations overnight Tuesday. The next chance for precipitation will not come until Wednesday as the next low amplitude shortwave trough wobbles through the Central Plains region. A few AM showers could pass near to just west of the area (20-30% precipitation chance). The better precipitation potential (40-70% chances) will come later Wednesday night as a mix of shower and non-severe thunderstorms move into central portions of Kansas/Nebraska. Given the cooler temperatures, a weaker CAPE profile (<500J/km) should limit the total number of storms and keep the mention of severe weather out of the discussion. Otherwise, winds for both Wednesday and Thursday will remain out of an easterly direction, blowing mainly between 5-15MPH with occasional gusts as high as 20-25MPH. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A broad upper level trough over the Rockies has been the driving force for severe weather yesterday and today. Water vapor imagery shows an upper level wave crossing much of the Central Plains this afternoon. Severe thunderstorms are currently going up along a boundary stretching from Hebron, NE to Lincoln, KS, as of 2:30 PM CDT. The main threat are a few tornadoes, golf ball size hail, and wind gusts up to 60 mph. Severe weather is forecast for Mitchell and Jewell continues in KS and Thayer county in NE. Storms will move out the region by the late afternoon with a majority of the severe weather threat off to the east. Areas behind the cold front, which is much of the county warning area, will see low stratus lingering into tonight causing light rain and drizzle. Tonight, temperatures are forecast to drop down into the mid to upper 30s across the county warning area. However, cloud cover and elevated winds, around 15 mph, will likely keep frost from forming. Low stratus should start to clear out by the early morning hours west to east. Tomorrow, temperatures are forecast to climb up into the 60s. Low temperatures tomorrow night are forecast to drop down into the lower to mid 30s across the northern half of the warning area. Unlike tonight, winds are forecast to be on the lighter side allowing frost to potentially form. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue across the Central Plains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move through the region Wednesday bringing forth chances for more precipitation. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side through the middle of the week as the cooler airmass lingers across the Plains. Thus, temperatures are forecast to range from the 60s to low 70s through Friday. Daily chances for thunderstorms returns from Wednesday night into the weekend. NSSL machine learning program and the CSU machine learning program are pegging Friday with a low chance of Severe weather mainly across the southern half of the county warning area. It is possible this low chance of severe weather shifts further south. Temperatures will warm this weekend as an upper level ridge begins to build across the Central US. This warm pattern will continue into early next with conditions drying out. The NBM 25th to 75th percentiles have high temperatures ranging from the lower 80s to the mid 90s. Thus, fairly high confidence on above normal temperatures to start out next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1117 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions are favored through the period. FEW-SCT afternoon cumulus will clear this evening, and additional cloud cover arriving from the west early Wednesday morning. Cloud bases may dip to around 4kft by middy Wednesday, but should remain VFR. Some light rain could move in late in the TAF period, but this is more favored to the west of GRI/EAR. North winds today become light/variable tonight before turning to the southeast and east on Wednesday. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ039>041- 046-047. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Stump DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...Mangels  090 FXUS64 KLUB 191639 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1139 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1134 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Much cooler Tuesday as a cold front passes through during the morning hours with a small chance for an isolated storm across the Rolling Plains. - Cooler and wetter conditions from mid to late week with a chance for heavy rainfall overnight Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Current surface observations late this evening analyze the previously stalled front over the northern Texas Panhandle, where it has resumed its southward progression over the last hour. This FROPA is expected to make it's way into the far southern Texas Panhandle shortly after midnight, around the 06Z to 07Z timeframe. Behind the front, winds will shift out of the north-northeast where they may briefly become breezy around 30 to 40 mph. Additionally, there remains a slim window of opportunity for an isolated thunderstorm to develop along the frontal boundary as it progresses southward through the overnight period. This will be primarily across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains, where moisture will be maximized with the dryline slowly retreating westward. However, confidence remains a bit low in regards to precipitaion overnight with models all over the place with timing and location, if any storms at all develop. If they do, convergence along the frontal boundary along with steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km and bulk shear magnitudes around 40 knots would suggest the potential for large hail with any storm that develops. Precipitation chances will wane by daybreak Tuesday, thereafter mostly dry conditions are expected. As the front makes its way through the FA, post-frontal northerly winds will develop and last through much of the morning. Becoming easterly by Tuesday afternoon as a surface low develops over central New Mexico. With the post frontal airmass in place and upslope component to the wind a much cooler day is expected with highs in the 70s expected. Highs will vary across the region, and will remain dependent on the timing of the FROPA. NBM highs seem a bit to warm across our southern zones so opted for a blend of NBM 25th percentile to reflect the FROPA moving through shortly after daybreak. Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances may exists late Tuesday afternoon and evening as the stalled FROPA to our south retreats back north late in the day. Compared to this time yesterday, most guidance has backed off on this scenario. Nonetheless, depending on how far north the boundary retreats will play a factor in the potential for convective initiation. Otherwise, a quiet night is expected for much of the region with cooler overnight temperatures across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle in the mid 40s to mid 50s while off the Caprock expect lows in the 60s thanks to increasing moisture and the potential for low stratus. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 The main theme of the extended forecast package will be the daily afternoon chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through the weekend. Broad large scale troughing will remain established over portions of the western CONUS through the period, while the associated parent trough remains displaced to the north digging into the Canadian Provinces. Embedded perturbations tracking through the main flow out ahead of the base of the trough over the Desert Southwest are expected to translate through the region each day from mid to late week this week. Meanwhile off to our east, an upper level ridge will remain overspread much of the southeastern CONUS. This synoptic setup will support southwest flow aloft initially, before we see a more westerly regime set-up by late Wednesday in response to the upper low digging south into portions of the Intermountain West. This more zonal flow aloft will likely limit subtropical moisture transport into the region, with recent guidance placing the bulk of the moisture plume east of the area. This is also reflected in both the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble runs with the QPF footprint favoring higher precipitation totals off to our east. Nonetheless, the upslope component to the surface winds with relatively easterly flow will work to transport moisture in from the Gulf allowing for rich low-level moisture to advect into the region. Dewpoints are progged in the 50s and 60s, with mid to upper 60 dewpoints positioned across the southeastern Rolling Plains where we expect the best moisture to be positioned. Similar to the m-d to upper level moisture, the better forcing for ascent looks to remain confined to a pair of H5 jet maximas that are forecasted to remain north and south of the region. Therefore, precipitation chances across the area will be dependent on the perturbations translating through the main flow and interacting with the moisture already in place. Ensembles continue to hint at the best opportunity for shower and thunderstorm activity being late Wednesday into Thursday morning, when the strongest vorticity max moves through the northern Texas Panhandle and West Texas region and taps into the plentiful moisture. If showers and thunderstorms are able to develop, there is a chance for heavy rainfall across portions of the region, primarily our southern counties, where we find PWATs around 1.25" to 1.50" which is well above the 90th percentile seasonal normal for this time of year. This will likely be the main severe threat with activity, although small hail cannot be ruled out given modest MLLR around 7 to 8 C/km and MUCAPE values around 1500-1700J/kg. Expect a similar set up each afternoon Thursday through Saturday as perturbations track through the region and attempt to tap in to the moisture in place across the region. As for temperatures, Tuesday's cold front will provide the much needed relief from the absurdly warm temperatures we saw last week and this past weekend. Easterly winds will remain in place as well through much of the week and with little to no change in heights and thickness values we can expect highs in the 70s to hold through at least Friday, before we begin to see a subtle warm up back in the 80s through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Skies will clear and NE winds will diminish through this evening. MVFR CIGs are likely at all sites by early Wednesday morning, with LIFR and reduced visibilities possible at KCDS. These will persist through the end of the current TAF period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...19  170 FXUS64 KTSA 191636 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1136 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1134 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Lingering severe weather concerns across southeast Oklahoma will wind down this afternoon as a cold front exits the area. - Much cooler weather is expected through Thursday, with a slow warming trend then developing into next week. - Rain and thunder chances will continue daily for the next week, with the heaviest and most widespread rain Thursday into Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1134 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A strong cold front has now pushed through most of the forecast area with cooler northerly winds behind it. It will move out of southeast OK over the next two hours. Temperatures have cooled into the 50s to 60s for all areas except south of the front, where temperatures remain in the 70s. Lingering rain showers across much of the area will continue into the evening as warm and moist air rides over the elevated frontal surface, but should diminish in coverage somewhat with time. The severe weather threat will persist near the front for the next hour or two, and then diminish as the front moves south. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to reinvigorate along the upper level front late this evening and overnight, which will be near the I-44 corridor. Overnight lows will be in the 50s across much of northeast OK and northwest AR, with low 60s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1134 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Model guidance suggests Wednesday will be mostly dry, though a few light showers cannot be ruled out, especially during the morning hours. There will be a fairly wide range of temperatures, with upper 60s to low 70s in the north, and mid 70s to near 80 F in the south. Went slightly below NBM as its been much too warm with the airmass observed behind this front. By Thursday, our next storm cycle will begin taking shape, as a trough dives into the area from the northwest, merging with an existing weak low pressure over the Desert Southwest. This will increase both low level warm/moist advection and upper level shear. Multiple shortwaves will pass through the area, kicking off repeated rounds of showers and storms Thursday onwards. As of now, Thursday appears to be the day with most widespread and heaviest rainfall potential. It will remain similarly cool to Wednesday. Model timing uncertainty begins to grow into Friday, but as of now it appears the next most likely window for rain will be late Friday into Saturday morning, with another round Saturday into Sunday. Each of these rounds of precipitation will likely have embedded thunderstorms, but only a low chance for severe weather. If severe weather were to develop, Friday would be the most likely day. The main focus will likely be the heavy rain potential given weak but vertically deep cape and unusually high precipitable water values above 1.5 inches. Over time, depending on how much rain falls and where it falls, this could increase flash or river flood concerns. The pattern looks to remain unstable into the middle of next week with weak troughing keep precipitation chances above normal and temperatures mostly near normal. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A couple hour period of thunderstorm impacts will affect all terminals except BVO during the first 6 hours or so of the valid TAF period, with IFR/MVFR ceilings and gusty northerly winds behind a cold front. Reduced visibilities should develop this evening and continue overnight, with a low chance of locally IFR visibilities that will not be mentioned for now. CAMs continue to show isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms after 06-08Z, which will be covered by PROB30 groups at all sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 70 56 70 60 / 80 70 20 60 FSM 79 65 80 64 / 90 60 30 30 MLC 77 60 77 63 / 90 40 30 40 BVO 62 51 67 56 / 50 70 10 50 FYV 76 59 74 60 / 80 70 30 20 BYV 75 59 70 58 / 80 70 30 20 MKO 74 58 75 62 / 90 70 20 50 MIO 67 55 67 56 / 90 70 20 40 F10 74 57 73 61 / 90 40 20 60 HHW 79 64 79 64 / 90 40 30 40 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...22  417 FXUS64 KHUN 191645 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1145 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1014 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Low to medium chances (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms return tonight. - Medium to high chances (50-90%) of showers and thunderstorms then persist each day from Wednesday through much of the weekend. No severe weather is forecast. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1014 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A hot and humid summer like day is underway as temperatures as of 10am are in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70F. The local forecast area remains along the western edge of high pressure that is centered over the Carolinas. The high clouds this morning continue to scatter out, but with daytime heating the fair weather Cu field is forecast to develop by this afternoon. Later today, expect afternoon highs to climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s with max heat index values in the low to mid 90s. Looking at forecast soundings, the atmosphere becomes quite unstable, however with no lifting mechanism in place and some weak subsidence aloft, no precip is forecast today. If you plan on being outside this afternoon make sure to hydrate and practice good heat safety. By tonight, the MCS along a cold front that impacted MO/AR/LA will push eastward into TN/MS. By the time it reaches NW AL a gradual weakening trend is anticipated as it runs into a more stable environment. That being said, the outflow boundary associated with the MCS will at least provide a low chance (20-40%) of showers and storms after midnight in portions of NW AL. No severe storms are forecast given the weak vertical wind shear. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday Night) Issued at 1014 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The cold front associated with the active weather to our west finally makes its way into the TN Valley. As it stalls just to our west, shortwaves are forecast to ripple northeastward along the boundary Wednesday and Thursday. This will result in medium to high chances (50-90%) of showers and thunderstorms. While it is difficult to determine when the precip will occur, the best chances for thunderstorms will be during the afternoon and evening hours. The good news is that there is little to no shear, therefore no severe storms are expected. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 1010 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026After sunrise, w A more summerlike pattern will persist through the Day 4-7 period as 5h ridging builds farther into the southeast U.S. and eastern Gulf of America. Southwesterly flow will persist northwest of the ridge, maintaining a moist flow of air into the Gulf States, particularly in the lower MS Valley where 2.0+ inch PWs will reside. Although, there is a corridor of slightly lower values in the 1.5-1.8 inch range over AL into eastern and middle TN, with higher values farther east across the FL peninsula through GA and the Carolinas. Multiple weak impulses will lift northeast through this period, with medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms each day (diurnally inflated due to heating). High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s, with lows in the 60s. Dew points will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions continue today with gusty southerly winds around 20 knots. Winds will subside and become light overnight. Tomorrow morning, rain and thunderstorm chances begin to increase. This will result in both vsbys and cigs dropping down to MVFR. One uncertainty is the timing, hence left in a prob 30 group for now and will refine in future forecasts.&& .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GH SHORT TERM....GH LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...GH  545 FXUS63 KSGF 191648 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1148 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to slowly move through the area this morning before exiting the area this evening. Additional scattered showers/storms possible overnight. - Flood Watch remains in effect until 1pm. Residual flooding from previous heavy rains will continue. Additional rainfall amounts up to one inch is possible, especially along and south of Interstate 44. - Cooler into mid week, with additional rain chances (60-90%) on Thursday and Friday. There is a slight risk for excessive rainfall/localized flooding Thursday night through Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 As of 10am, a cold front was located over southeast Kansas, moving into western Missouri. Behind the front, temps were in the 50s, ahead of the front, temps were in the 60s however the low level airmass was fairly stable with widespread clouds and showers with embedded thunderstorms. RAP MU CAPE plots generally showed around 1000j/kg therefore elevated thunderstorm potential will continue this morning. Plenty of CG strikes have been noted in the stratiform rain shield. Latest satellite data shows warming cloud tops therefore storm strength should continue to decrease this morning. General consensus is that any severe potential today will be very low and confined to far south central Missouri. However confidence is low that enough low level instability will be able to develop organized storms. The most likely hazard we will continue to deal with is flooding. Two day rainfall totals north of Springfield were in the 4-8 inch range, and even some areas west of Springfield saw 4 inches of rainfall. Locations southeast of Springfield are alot drier than areas further north. Therefore anticipating only localized flooding in these areas. Locations further north will continue to see a scattered showers/storms through the morning which could cause streams from decreasing. Therefore residual flooding is likely in that area and a Flood Watch and various advisories/warnings remains in effect. While the surface front will slowly move through the area today. The 850mb front looks to remain further west of the area. This will keep the potential for isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm tonight into Wednesday morning along with cooler temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 This Morning: A strong cold front continues to push through the area early this morning with strong jet dynamics supporting a line of showers and thunderstorms. This line of showers and thunderstorms is slowly dropping southeast into the area, with environment featuring MUCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg in the vicinity of marginal bulk shear around 30 knots. In general, the line has experienced gradual weakening trends over the last several hours, though a lingering strong to severe thunderstorm threat remains through early this morning. In particular, any line segments that able to punch down with the RIJ and bow out. For this reason, the primary hazard with any strong to severe activity will remain damaging wind gusts. The tornado threat remains very low (2-5%). O-3km shear vectors are oriented to the east- northeast at 30 to 35 knots, though low- level CAPE remains absent. Given this environment, bowing segments that become balanced and/or interact with boundaries may support a brief tornado. The tornado threat will rapidly diminish through mid-morning. SPC continues to highlight the potential for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with a Slight Risk (2 of 5) this morning into the early afternoon as the line makes it's way through the area withthe front. Further attention turns towards an environment still favorable for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. A corridor of 1 to 3 inches, with localized pockets of 4 to 6 inches occurred on Monday along the Highway 54 corridor. This area will be particularly susceptible to flash flooding this morning and remains in Flood Watch through early afternoon. The environment, which features PWATs around 1.5 to 1.7 inches as a strong 40 to 50 knot LLJ overrides the area. Strong low-level moisture convergence continues to amplify deep convection, that has become oriented west-southwest in areas. This orientation of the line will allow for training of thunderstorms to occur over the same areas into early this morning, with efficient rainfall rates approaching 0.5 to 1.0 inch per a hour. As mentioned earlier, a corridor across west central into central MO is well saturated from rainfall on Monday, with 1 hr FFG on the order of 0.5 to 1.0 inch in locations. 3 hr FFG remains favorable in the 1.5 to 2 inch range. Additional localized flash flooding remains plausible outside of the watch as well, especially in urban areas such as Joplin to Springfield. Rainfall amounts through this morning will range from 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher amounts of 3 to 4 inches. WPC highlights a Slight (2 of 4) to Moderate (3 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall for the flash flooding potential this morning. As we progress through the morning into the afternoon, the front and associated line of showers and thunderstorms should make it's way into far southern MO. Most of the CAMs depict a scenario with little to no redevelopment occuring as the front sinks southeast out of the area. While low confidence, the only area to keep an eye on for potential redevelopment would be along the MO/AR border in south central MO/eastern Ozarks. Winds become northerly behind the frontal passage today, with highs varying from upper 60s (northwest) to lower 80s (southeast). Overcast skies linger behind the frontal passage into tonight, with scattered showers and a few elevated non-severe thunderstorms chances. There remains some uncertainty with the true extent of coverage with the post-frtonal activity. Lows fall into the 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Wednesday: Much cooler on Wednesday behind the frontal passage with highs only reaching into the middle to upper 60s. Scattered rain chances (30-60%) linger through Wednesday morning before dissipating. Thursday-Friday: Return flow with the frontal attempting to lift back north into the area on Thursday and Friday will bring increasing PoPs back into the area. Shower and thunderstorm chances approach 60-90% on Thursday into Friday, though the environment remains unfavorable for severe or widespread flooding. Localized flooding will need to be closely watched given antecedent conditions from early week precipitation. Meanwhile, gradual increasing mid-level heights will support a warming trend as highs return into the 70s late week. This Weekend: Broad southwest flow persists into the weekend, with embedded waves of energy translating through the flow. Persistent rain chances (20-40%) linger through the weekend, with uncertainty in the exact timing and extent of coverage. Highs push back into the upper 70s to lower 80s, right around average for mid to late May. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1143 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An area of showers and a few thunderstorms was moving through southern Missouri. The chance of thunderstorms will decrease through the afternoon however rain chances remain high. The chance of rain will also return overnight. A front is moving the area and has already moved into JLN. The front will move through SGF and BBG this afternoon and willswitch the winds to the northwest. North to northwest winds will then continue through Wednesday. Behind the front, cloud ceilings drop quickly into IFR with some LIFR. Confidence is high that ceilings will drop below 1kft this afternoon, lasting through tonight. Ceilings may drop down to 500 ft at times and additional updates are likely. Lastly, visibilities may drop closer to 4-5 miles at times in the rain showers. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ073. MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ055>058- 066>071-078>081. && $$ UPDATE...Burchfield SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Burchfield  538 FXUS66 KSGX 191648 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 948 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS... High temperatures for the mountains and deserts will warm through Thursday. High temperatures for the coast and valleys will warm several more degrees today, then slowly cool into next weekend. Night and morning coastal low clouds will return and increase in coverage during the middle of the week, then spread farther into the inland valleys by next weekend. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)... Weak offshore flow will continue for inland areas today with high temperatures for inland areas warming 5 to 10 degrees. High temperatures for the coast and valleys will be around 5 degrees above average for today with the mountains and deserts a few degrees below average. High temperatures for today will range from around 70 near the coast to the 80s for the Inland Empire with the lower deserts in the lower to mid 90s. High temperatures for the mountains and deserts will warm another 5 degrees on Wednesday and another few degrees on Thursday. High temperatures for coastal areas will cool a few degrees on Wednesday with cooling of a few degrees spreading into the valleys on Thursday. High temperatures on Thursday will be a few to around 5 degrees above average with high temperatures ranging from around 70 near the coast to the 80s for the Inland Empire with the mid to upper 90s for the lower deserts. While the NKX sounding for late Monday afternoon showed the marine layer was still around 3500 feet deep, higher-resolution model guidance shows little or no return of coastal low clouds this morning except possibly some patchy low clouds near the southern San Diego County coast before sunrise. For tonight into Wednesday morning, those models develop a weak coastal eddy with low clouds spreading northward and locally inland along the San Diego County coast, possibly into portions of Orange County. For Wednesday night into Thursday, greater inland spread of the coastal low clouds is expected with low clouds spreading into portions of the San Diego County valleys and portions of the Inland Empire. && .LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)... Not much change in high temperatures is expected for the mountains and deserts with slight additional cooling for the coast and valleys. For next Monday, high temperatures will range from around average near the coast to around 5 degrees above average for the mountains and deserts. High temperatures for next Monday will range from around 70 near the coast to the upper 70s to upper 80s for the Inland Empire with the lower deserts in the upper 90s to 102. Night and morning coastal low clouds will spread into portions of the inland valleys late each night. && .AVIATION... 191700Z...Mostly clear skies expected through early Wednesday morning. Offshore breezes with strongest gusts 20-25 kts through mountain passes and foothills will diminish within the next few hours. 30-70% chance for low clouds based 1000-2000 ft MSL over coastal San Diego County after 11z (highest chances near KSAN). Low clouds will scatter to the coast by 16-17z Wed. && .MARINE... West-northwest winds will gust to near 20 kts over outer coastal waters this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday morning. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Martin AVIATION/MARINE...KW  635 FXUS63 KUNR 191651 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1051 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold temperatures overnight with freeze/frost headlines - Gradual warmup mid-week with increasing precipitation chances for Thursday/Friday - Sharp warmup for the weekend into early next week && .UPDATE... Issued at 919 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Going forecast in pretty good shape. Clouds are starting to breakup as leftover diurnal showers wane per shortwave moving into the upper Midwest. This will allow temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s over much of the CWA overnight, covered by Freeze/Frost headlines. A warming trend begins tomorrow and peaks over the weekend. Weak disturbance and a bit of buoyancy may pop weak convection Wednesday with better chances Thursday/Friday as stronger disturbances rotate through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Ensemble spreads tight, but then diverge a little for the weekend into early next week, but most paint a sharp warmup in line with flat upper ridge/westerly downslope flow. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 128 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Current Water Vapor and upper air models show troughing just east of the Rockies running through the northern and central plains, with upper ridges over the New England region and off the west coast. 19Z surface analysis depicts a surface low to our east over MN, surface high over central MT. Radar shows widespread precipitation across the forecast area, with some of the higher elevations receiving light accumulations of snow today. Winds are currently breezy out of the northwest to north, with temperatures in the 30s to low 40s. Precipitation will taper off from west to east late afternoon through the evening, as trough slides eastward today. Cool temperatures continue tonight as clouds clear up and light northwest winds continue. Much of the area is expected to reach near or below freezing overnight. HREF probability for temps to reach at or below freezing sit at 80-100% for areas from the Black Hills and west. Further east will be a bit trickier as cloud cover will linger into tonight as the trough slowly shifts eastward. A Freeze warning has been issued for most of our plains areas, with a frost advisory in effect for part of south-central SD for Tuesday morning. Brief and weak ridge sets over the region mid-week, resulting in drier conditions and a warming trend towards near seasonable. Another wave rides southeast from western Canada towards the northern plains later in the week, increasing chances for precipitation late Thursday into Friday. Shortwave ridging moves over the weekend, bringing warmer temps back in as well. By Sunday/Monday the region should see highs climb back into the 80s to low 90s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday) Issued At 1051 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Low & mid- level clouds over western South Dakota will gradually dissipate this afternoon from west to east. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ UPDATE...Helgeson DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye AVIATION...13  769 FXUS62 KFFC 191655 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1255 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New 18Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures continue through the work week with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. - Increased rain chances return tomorrow through the weekend, especially in northern and western Georgia. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 455 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Temperatures will quickly climb into the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon, with relative humidity falling into the upper 30% range as high pressure keeps moisture off to the west of the CWA. This will prevent afternoon thunderstorms for a final day before we reintroduce them to the forecast tomorrow. Winds will be light out of the S/SE at less than 10mph. Overnight lows will remain in the 60s and moisture values across NW Georgia will increase out ahead of a cold front pushing through the TN river valley area. As a result, the best chance for thunderstorms will be limited to the far northwest tomorrow during the afternoon and early evening. While a few rumbles of thunder are possible, widespread severe weather appears unlikely in this dry environment. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 455 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 A weakening cold front will have entered the far northern tier by the time the long term period picks up on Wednesday evening. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger across far north and west Georgia in the closest vicinity to the front, though coverage will steadily diminish after sunset and thunderstorms will come to an end after midnight. As ridging over the Atlantic Coast and west Atlantic continues to flatten, the front will make some minimal progress southward during the early morning, eventually stalling north of I-20 amid southwesterly flow aloft during the daytime on Thursday. Temperatures and dewpoints will start the morning on Thursday in the mid to upper 60s across the area. High temperatures will be slightly cooler across far north Georgia (in the low to mid 80s) behind the front compared to upper 80s elsewhere in north Georgia and low 90s in central Georgia. Hot and humid conditions will support diurnally enhanced convection, with PoPs of 60-80% in the northern half of the area closest to the frontal boundary, and 30-50% in the southern half of the area. The front will become less defined and begin to lift back northward on Friday within southwest mid-level flow along the western periphery of the Atlantic ridge. This southwesterly flow will intensify as a second ridge approaches from the Great Plains, giving the front an additional push away to the north. While this ridge sets up over the eastern CONUS during the weekend, the aforementioned southwesterly flow will continue to spread ample moisture into the forecast area. Temperatures rising into the 80s and low 90s each day along with ample moisture will lead to scattered to numerous diurnal convection each day through the weekend into early next week. Coverage of storms will be greatest during the afternoon and evening. At this time, the deepest moisture and highest PWATs will keep the most consistent heavy rainfall west of Georgia. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions expected across most of the area through the 18Z TAF period. FEW-SCT CU fields of 4-5kft will be around this afternoon, then going mostly SKC tonight. Areas of low CIGs and patchy fog may develop across MCN and areas southeast in the morning. Another round of afternoon CU develops on WED with PROB30 SHRA/TSRA for the ATL area. Winds light out of the S-SE today, going light and VRB overnight, then turning S-SW around 4-8kts after 15Z WED. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High for all elements. Culver && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 90 66 91 66 / 0 0 10 10 Atlanta 89 69 89 69 / 0 0 20 20 Blairsville 85 62 85 62 / 0 0 20 20 Cartersville 90 65 90 65 / 0 0 20 20 Columbus 91 68 91 68 / 0 0 10 10 Gainesville 88 66 88 67 / 0 0 10 10 Macon 90 66 91 67 / 0 0 10 10 Rome 88 64 88 63 / 0 0 20 20 Peachtree City 89 66 90 66 / 0 0 10 10 Vidalia 91 65 91 67 / 10 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vaughn LONG TERM....King AVIATION...Culver  819 FXUS63 KMKX 191656 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1156 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Diminishing chance for showers with the cold frontal passage today. - Cool and drier weather then returns for midweek. - Rain chances return Friday into Friday night(40-60%), followed by a gradual warming trend Saturday into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued 1156 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The cold front is apparent on radar and is trekking through south central WI right now. It is almost to Madison. Sprinkles or a light shower are possible along the front. Then expect a wind shift to the west-northwest behind the front, with gusts up to 25 mph (not a lot different than the gusts going on right now). There are plenty of clouds upstream due to the diurnal influence, so expect these to thin out overnight. Lows will be in the lower-mid 40s tonight. Cronce && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1134 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Tonight through Thursday night: The decaying MCS is now moving into sw WI and will continue to encounter much greater MLCIN and high LFCs. However, still expect fairly widespread showers and sct storms to move across all of srn WI during the early morning hours as a sswly low level jet of 40 kts increases warm, moist advection and boosts elevated CAPE to 1000-2000 J/KG. Wind gusts and small hail will be the main concerns. A wave of low pressure along the stationary front from central IA to ern MN will track newd to near Lake Superior by 12Z Tue. The low will then track ewd into Quebec during the day with its trailing cold front moving across srn WI Tue AM into the early afternoon. Moist low levels and marginal instability could result in a broken line of showers and isold storms along the front but no severe wx is anticipated. Nwly winds and cold advection will continue into Tue nt with low temps falling into the lower to middle 40s. High pressure will then move from MN to the nrn Great Lakes on Wed and remain there into Thu. Nely sfc winds and a relatively cool air mass will reside over srn WI with high temps in the 50s over ern WI and lower 60s over south central WI. A return of warm advection will bring 20 percent chances for showers west of Madison Thu nt. Gehring && .LONG TERM... Issued 1134 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Friday through Monday: Low pressure ejects from the Southern Plains on Friday, with continued model discrepancies as to its progression. Canadian and Euro indicate a more southerly track of a single low pressure system bringing widespread rain and storms to southern Wisconsin throughout the day along the northern side of the low, while the GFS prefers a split pattern with one portion of the energy progressing through the lower Mississippi Valley and the other following the jet stream into Minnesota and brings a warm front with rain and storms into southern Wisconsin. Regardless of solution, probabilities of seeing rainfall have increased, so kept likely PoPs (50-65%) in the forecast for Friday afternoon into Friday night. Models also are inclined to agree that precipitation will taper off into Saturday as the warm front lifts north or the low pressure system exits to the east. Generally unsettled weather looks to develop Sunday through Tuesday as broad 500 mb troughing develops across the Upper Midwest, bringing multiple shortwaves through the region. As the upper level troughing develops, high pressure building in the Plains will bring increasing temperatures through the weekend into early next week. Monday and Tuesday temperatures could return to the mid-80s. However, weak, generally southeasterly winds will allow for Lake Michigan influence on temperatures in the easternmost counties. MH && .AVIATION... Issued 1156 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Expect MVFR ceilings ahead of and behind a cold front that is currently crossing southern WI (now near Madison). Breezy southwest winds will become west to northwest winds behind the front this afternoon and evening. Ceilings should lift to VFR late this afternoon and then disperse tonight as skies gradually clear as high pressure works into the region. Clouds below 5000 ft should be present on Wednesday, especially closer to Lake Michigan. Wind should be out of the northeast near the lake and then the northeast winds will expand inland through early afternoon. Cronce && .MARINE... Issued 1156 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 The Marine Dense Fog Advisory for the north half of Lake Michigan was extended through mid afternoon due to relatively mild and humid air flowing over the cold lake waters. Fog will linger until the cold front moves through.Otherwise modest to breezy southerly winds will persist ahead of the front, then shift to the west-northwest and remain breezy through most of tonight. High pressure around 30.4 inches will then move into the northern Great Lakes for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Light to modest north to northeast winds can be expected. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor through late afternoon for breezy southwest to west winds. Cronce && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 PM Tuesday. Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ868 until 3 PM Tuesday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  844 FXUS64 KLZK 191657 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1157 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 -Line of showers/thunderstorms to move southeast through the state today into this evening -Threat for seeing severe weather with this line of thunderstorms will be limited by instability...though some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Damaging winds will be primary threat -Locally heavy rainfall may lead to an isolated flash flood threat today -Unsettled pattern will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms forecast into early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 All quiet across AR so far early this Tue morning...with some breezy SRLY winds noted. Temps remain warm in the 70s for most areas...with dewpts also in the 60s and 70s. A line of TSRA is ongoing across NRN OK into SERN KS and WRN MO...slowly moving SE over time. This line of convention will be the primary wx story through this Tue afternoon/evening. Expect this line of convection to drop SE into the state sometime near sunrise...eventually dropping SE through the state by late this afternoon/early evening. The overall threat for SVR convection with this line as it moves SE will be limited by instability...which forecast instability is generally lacking. SHR is also limited during the daylight hrs...with the highest 0-3 km SRH this morning just ahead of the line over NWRN sections. While this doesn't mean organized SVR Wx won't happen...just means the potential will be limited...and likely isolated in nature. If SVR convection were to develop...damaging winds look to be the primary threat...with some marginally SVR hail possible also. The overall tornado threat looks to remain low...and may be limited to far NWRN sections during the morning hrs when the SRH is best. However...this is also when CIN will also be elevated...which should help keep that tornado threat low. Some locally heavy rainfall may be seen as this line of convection drops slowly SE over time. While most of this rainfall will be welcome given the ongoing drought conditions...there could be a few isolated spots see enough rainfall that could create an isolated flash flood threat. Beyond this evening...chances for precip do decrease overnight into Wed morning. However...an unsettled pattern will continue as SW flow aloft will remain SW over the region into early next week. Upper waves will pass over the state...which will create some forcing for convection generally each day through the week and through the weekend. While the threat for organized SVR Wx looks low at this time...late May climatology suggest some SVR threat may be possible each day. When...where...and what SVR threat may exist will depend on day to day specifics regarding the stability and SHR. As a result...the threat should remain uncertain for now. The threat for seeing heavy rainfall for the next 4-7 days may increase given multiple rounds of rainfall possible...but ongoing drought conditions and exact placement of heaviest rainfall through the next week keep the threat for flash flooding uncertain at this time as well. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A line of SHRA/TSRA across parts of northwest and western Arkansas will continue to push slowly east southeast across the state through the afternoon into the early evening hours. Along and ahead of the line of SHRA/TSRA, pockets of MVFR/VFR persist with recent observations showing temporary reductions to IFR as the line of SHRA/TSRA moved through KHRO. Expect a temporary reductions to IFR/MVFR as the line moves through the remaining TAF sites, then MVFR will prevail at most TAF sites through the end of the TAF cycle. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 66 75 62 75 / 60 40 40 60 Camden AR 68 82 65 80 / 60 40 60 80 Harrison AR 61 70 59 73 / 50 30 30 60 Hot Springs AR 67 80 64 77 / 50 30 50 70 Little Rock AR 67 79 63 77 / 60 30 50 70 Monticello AR 69 82 67 81 / 80 50 60 90 Mount Ida AR 67 79 66 76 / 50 30 50 70 Mountain Home AR 61 71 58 73 / 50 40 30 50 Newport AR 68 77 62 78 / 60 50 40 60 Pine Bluff AR 68 80 65 79 / 60 40 50 80 Russellville AR 66 78 63 77 / 50 30 40 60 Searcy AR 66 78 61 77 / 60 50 40 70 Stuttgart AR 69 80 66 78 / 60 50 50 80 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...62 AVIATION...76  917 FXUS66 KPQR 191659 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 959 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 Updated Aviation and Marine Discussions .SYNOPSIS...Dry and benign weather is expected across the region through much of the next week as high pressure builds over the Northeast Pacific, resulting in a warming trend. Weak systems aloft may bring enhanced cloud cover on some days, but rain chances are minimal. Uncertainty in the forecast increases Sunday into Monday as chances for precipitation return. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Monday...Water Vapor satellite imagery this morning shows a broad upper level ridge over the NE Pacific while mid-to-upper level moisture continues to stream scattered high clouds over the area. Marine stratus is also filtering in across portions of far northwest Oregon, especially along the Columbia River this morning. Clouds should scatter out by the afternoon, except along the north Oregon coast where a deepening marine layer will bring a chance for some very light rain or drizzle near Astoria. Otherwise, expect rather comfortable weather to continue today with highs reaching into the upper 60s to lower 70s, depending on which area sees more of the sunshine today. Concerns for hazardous weather remain low through the week and into the weekend. Still expecting a slight warming trend through the week, with the warmest day most likely being on Thursday as the upper ridge axis shifts east over the Pacific NW. Temperatures on Thursday will likely warm into the upper 70s to low 80s along the I- 5 corridor. At this time, there is Minor HeatRisk forecast across the region, meaning those who are most sensitive to heat may be affected. However, there are 5-15% chances Moderate HeatRisk occurs in some urban areas along I-5 if daytime highs end up somewhat hotter. There is generally around a 10-30% chance that max temps exceed 85 degrees Thursday afternoon in the Portland Metro area. Friday through next weekend, uncertainty in the evolution and possible break-down of the upper-level ridge introduces more uncertainty in forecast temperatures and precipitation. Forecast daytime highs currently trend downward through the holiday weekend as chances increase that ridging deamplifies or is replaced by an upper trough, but there is an increasingly wide range of possible outcomes. The 80%-confidence envelopes (the difference between the 10th and 90th percentiles) in temperature widen from 8-13 degrees on Friday and Saturday to 16-19 degrees on Sunday and Monday along the I-5 corridor. There is greater consensus that the ridge will break down late Sunday into Monday, yielding increasing chances of cooler temperatures as well as the highest chances of rainfall, 25-50%, in over a week. 36/DH && .AVIATION...An upper level ridge offshore will maintain northwesterly flow across the airspace. Current satellite and surface observations (as of 16Z Tue) show generally VFR conditions with pockets of MVFR for inland locations and mostly VFR conditions with MVFR/IFR conditions for locations north of KONP. These conditions are expected to persist through the majority of the TAF period. It should be noted that guidance is showing a very weak, upper level disturbance, around 09Z-12Z Wed that could result in lowered flight conditions (IFR/LIFR) along the coast as well as some MVFR conditions backbuilding along the Cascades and pushing eastward into the Willamette Valley. This is resulting in a 45-65% chance for IFR conditions along the coast, a 25-35% chance for LIFR and a 35-55% chance for MVFR conditions for inland locations. If these conditions manifest, improvement in overall flight conditions across the airspace should start towards the very end of the TAF period. North/northwest winds 6-10kt persist through the TAF period with gusts up to 20 kt possible along the coast starting around 20Z-22Z Tue through around 04Z Wed. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR conditions expected through the majority of the TAF period. Guidance shows backbuilding clouds along the Cascades pushing eastward starting around 09Z Wed. This is resulting in a 35-55% chance for MVFR conditions developing and impacting the terminal. If these conditions manifest, improvement towards VFR starting around 18Z Wed. North/northwest winds 6-10 kt persist through the TAF period. /42 && .MARINE...Northerlies are expected to persist through much of the week as the summer-like pattern settles in. Strongest winds are expected during the afternoon and evening periods as a surface thermal trough strengthens over the region. Therefore, have updated the current suite of Small Craft Advisories as gusts up to 25 kt are expected across all zones with the exception of PZZ251, this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 feet are expected through the week as well. Chances increase on Thursday and Friday for widespread wind gusts for all marine zones. Small Craft Advisories are in place for the Columbia River Bar Wednesday morning due to strong/very strong ebb currents which will produce conditions hazardous to small craft. Strong/very strong ebb currents are possible during the morning hours each day this week. /42-DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ252-253-271-272. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ252- 271-272. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ253. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland